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Tropical Depression Four arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:23 PM GMT on August 02, 2010

Tropical Depression Four has made its debut over the mid-Atlantic Ocean, about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. TD 4 is a small storm with very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, and is not very impressive at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of TD 4 to allow further development, though. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. Satellite imagery shows that TD 4 is gradually developing low-level spiral bands, but the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has not increased over the past few hours. Upper-level outflow is not apparent yet.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 4.

Forecast for TD 4
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) models are fairly unified taking TD 4 to the west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of TD 4 should pass to the northeast of the islands. A more southerly track through Puerto Rico, as predicted by the Canadian model, cannot be ruled out, though. As TD 4 makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Tuesday night, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Wednesday. There is a great deal of dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for TD 4, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should greatly weaken and may destroy TD 4 late this week. NHC is giving TD 4 a 20% chance of attaining hurricane status by 8am EDT on Thursday. I think the storm will probably become Tropical Storm Colin tonight, and peak in strength on Wednesday as a 55 - 65 mph tropical storm. I agree that a 20% chance of it reaching hurricane strength is a reasonable forecast.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough may be strong enough to recurve TD 4 far enough to the northwest that the storm will threaten Bermuda. The GFDL model predicts TD 4 could pass very near to Bermuda on Saturday. It is uncertain at this time if the trough will be strong enough to recurve TD 4 all the way out to sea early next week, or leave the storm behind to potentially move westward again into the U.S. East Coast. The amount of wind shear that might be present early next week is also highly uncertain.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning by 8:30 EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thunderpr! ¿Qué tal? ¿De dónde en PR eres?
2006. xcool
Colin is beginning to outrun the upper level ridging thanks to the strong low level flow...look for the outflow in the southern semicircle to decrease this morning as SW-erly upper level winds begin to affect the system.
2009. xcool


update
2012. SLU
Uncle Joe's call for a westward movement is materialising .. at a rate of knots too!!
Conditions are dying down now at Buoy 41041...at closest approach TD4 was around 45 miles to the south of the buoy.
2015. Gearsts
2017. SLU
Quoting atmosweather:
Conditions are dying down now at Buoy 41041...at closest approach TD4 was around 45 miles to the south of the buoy.


Looks like an uneventful storm passage.
00z ECMWF is now on the left side of the guidance envelope.
Quoting SLU:


Looks like an uneventful storm passage.


Yup...with a system this small even areas 50 miles away will see very little significant weather. Looks like winds topped out close to 30 mph and the pressure did not drop below 1012mb.
Tropical Storm 04L

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 AUG 2010 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 14:01:47 N Lon : 46:30:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -26.5C Cloud Region Temp : -34.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.72 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 13:25:12 N Lon: 47:30:35 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



2021. Gearsts
Should i worry im from PR. :/Track looks like it will shift left even more!
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.2W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
2023. Gearsts
000
WTNT34 KNHC 030831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

...DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF COLIN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN WILL PASS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Quoting Gearsts:
Should i worry im from PR. :/Track looks like it will shift left even more!


Puerto Rico is not out of the woods by a longshot. I still don't expect it to directly hit you guys, though.
Quoting Gearsts:
Should i worry im from PR. :/Track looks like it will shift left even more!


Anyone living in the NE Caribbean including Puerto Rico and the northern Antilles must watch Colin carefully...the A/B high is pushing W-ward right now and keeping the system on a W to WNW-erly track...the issue will be the timing and strength of the W ATL approaching trough...I'm expecting the track to be shifted slightly to the SW but not by much. I'm still confident that Colin will begin to turn NW-ward before reaching the northern Antilles and thus missing Puerto Rico. But stay tuned!
2026. IKE
The NortheastPassage and the NorthwestPassage appear poised to reopen again before autumn.
Link to large map.
First time the discussion talks about the environment only stopping strengthing, rather than weakening it.

Doubt it's just going to level out at 50kts for 4 days, though.
2029. IKE
Quick forecast for Colin....Link




Tropical Storm Colin update from my blog Link

now bedtime...
Forecast track look pritty straight forward





pritty much west-west-westward with a slight more north to go
PR NWS :


ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.

later all...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Forecast track look pritty straight forward





pritty much west-west-westward with a slight more north to go


That's what it looked like to me. It's missed its tropical points to the south every time. Looks like its cruising at 13N. To the west.
Quoting CaribBoy:
PR NWS :


ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.

later all...


Ok. It's not just me and wunderkidcayman. :)
hey homelesswanderer maybe the NHC dose not want it to hit florida maybe that is why the north track in cone LOL

but I think that the more west it goes the more west the forecast track will be
Quoting IKE:
Quick forecast for Colin....Link






ROFL Ike
2038. IKE
This buoy is about 75 miles ENE of the COC....

Latest ob.....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.6 °F
2039. IKE
I had .23 inches of rain yesterday at my location...inland Florida panhandle...78.6 outside my window right now.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Quoting CaribBoy:
PR NWS :


ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN.

later all...



Ok. It's not just me and wunderkidcayman. :)




LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!!
Quoting IKE:
I had .23 inches of rain yesterday at my location...inland Florida panhandle...78.6 outside my window right now.


We finally got a much needed storm here on Sunday...1.95 inches in just over an hour. Back to the upper 90s today :(
2042. IKE
Colonoscopy.....they aren't much fun...trust me...especially the awful tasting stuff you drink the day before and the darn chicken broth you "eat".....

2043. IKE
Quoting atmosweather:


We finally got a much needed storm here on Sunday...1.95 inches in just over an hour. Back to the upper 90s today :(


My forecast is about the same....for the next week. I'm so looking forward to that first autumn cold front that comes through in a few weeks/months....
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey homelesswanderer maybe the NHC dose not want it to hit florida maybe that is why the north track in cone LOL

but I think that the more west it goes the more west the forecast track will be


I'm inclined to believe that to. It will be interesting to see if the models start showing this too.
2045. Gearsts
1 model is showing this west track :/
Quoting IKE:


My forecast is about the same....for the next week. I'm so looking forward to that first autumn cold front that comes through in a few weeks/months....


No kidding IKE...July averaged 95.3 for highs and 78.3 lows here...3rd warmest on record. And it'll be at least 8 weeks until we get our first 65 degree night down here...UGHHHH!
morning
colin looks still very disorganised. apart from the coc, there are a couple of vorticies within the cloud mass.
Quoting IKE:
This buoy is about 75 miles ENE of the COC....

Latest ob.....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.6 °F


Well it's already passed it, and is moving away from it rapidly at 23 mph, so of course it's rising. It's a pretty small storm.
We're beginning to see some slight flattening of the cloud pattern in Colin's southern semicircle as I mentioned might happen earlier...it's outrunning the outflow channel produced by the upper ridging to the E.
DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
2051. IKE
Quoting atmosweather:


No kidding IKE...July averaged 95.3 for highs and 78.3 lows here...3rd warmest on record. And it'll be at least 8 weeks until we get our first 65 degree night down here...UGHHHH!


Yeah...you're in Orlando. You've probably got a while longer to wait.
2052. tkeith
@ 12:30 pm yesterday it was 100.8 degrees at the Huey P with a heat index of 119. I was on a barge deck for about an hour, the surface temp of that barge was 134...

can you say "I'm too old for this $#!&"...I can and did :)
if you are talking about the XTRP it is no a model it is really a track that shows you where this would be moving with no forces pushing or pulling on it tack the last two plot to find which direction it is moving
2054. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
@ 12:30 pm yesterday it was 100.8 degrees at the Huey P with a heat index of 119. I was on a barge deck for about an hour, the surface temp of that barge was 134...

can you say "I'm too old for this $#!&"...Ican and did :)


They had a report on CNN the other day showing one of their weather guys helping with the skimming of oil in the GOM. Wearing protective clothing.....I'd die at that job.
maybe invest 92L SOON.
2056. tkeith
I wonder how many "curve/recurve" arguments will appear on the good Docs blog today?

anyone want to forecast that?
Quoting tkeith:
I wonder how many "curve/recurve" arguments will appear on the good Docs blog today?

anyone want to forecast that?


Cloudy with a 100% chance of bitterness.
2058. IKE
6Z GFS @ 102 hours....

FISH STORM.
2060. tkeith
Quoting atmosweather:


Cloudy with a 100% chance of bitterness.
I think you nailed it atmos...track and intensity :)
TropicalDepressionFour heading for Guadelupe of the LesserAntilles in ~38hours...
(Copy&paste 12.6N41.1W-13.0N42.5W, 13.0N42.5W-bbq, jax, 13.0N42.5W-13.6N45.1W, 13.6N45.1W-18.1N71.1W, bda, 13.6N45.1W-14.0N47.2W, 14.0N47.2W-sfc into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee)

Between its last two positions, TD4 had been traveling on a heading of 281.3degrees
(11.3degrees north of dueWest) at a speed of 24mph(~39km/h).

TD4 slowed down by 6mph(~10km/h) from its speed over the previous 6hour-measuring-period. And its path has turned evermore westward by 5.1degrees over the last 18hours.
2062. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I wonder how many "curve/recurve" arguments will appear on the good Docs blog today?

anyone want to forecast that?


Tens...hundreds...thousands.

I know where "C" isn't going and that's the GOM.
hmm I think there will be a big change with model to go westward when the NOAA's G-IV fiys
2064. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Tens...hundreds...thousands.

I know where "C" isn't going and that's the GOM.
and for that I'm thankful...
NWS New York, NY:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TREND TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BUILD DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
2066. Gearsts
Canadian (GEM) model tracks Colin over PR.


Lets not forget about the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. It has pulsed up well overnight and there is an UL anticyclone over the eastern Caribbean right now. This feature shouldn't be ignored.
2068. Walshy
Going from a high of 73degrees yesterday to 88 today. That is, if this wedge breaks along western NC. 3days with no Sun, just light persistent drizzle and fog in the night.

We had heat this Summer though. 100 degree weather with feels like around 108. Thank God for the Appalachian Mountains with its wedges of clouds coming from the east. Doesn't happen to often though, so don't come running here!
2069. 34chip
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
456 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010



WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT -- SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING IS LIKELY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY INHIBITED AIR MASS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES ARE AVAILABLE. WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SURFACE
RIDGING SHARPENS NORTH OF THE KEYS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY -- CLIMATOLOGICAL AUGUST PATTERN WITH WEAK
RIDGING NORTH OF THE KEYS AND A MOIST...UNSTABLE...WEAKLY INHIBITED
AIR MASS LOCALLY. DAILY RAINFALL PATTERNS WILL BE MODULATED SUBTLY BY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION...TERRAIN HEATING...AND SMALL-SCALE
MAXIMA/MINIMA IN 850-700MB MOISTURE.
Quoting atmosweather:
NWS New York, NY:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TREND TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BUILD DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.


I'm wondering how the high can be over SFL and the trough take Colin out to sea?

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...DEPRESSION #4 IS FORECAST BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND BE EAST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...AND WELL EAST OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT SOME OF THE SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF DEPRESSION #4 COULD WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PLAN ON LEAVING THE POPS IN THE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I'm wondering how the high can be over SFL and the trough take Colin out to sea?

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...DEPRESSION #4 IS FORECAST BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND BE EAST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...AND WELL EAST OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT SOME OF THE SUBSIDENCE
AHEAD OF DEPRESSION #4 COULD WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PLAN ON LEAVING THE POPS IN THE
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS
WEEKEND.


The approaching trough will amplify later this week, pushing its energy SE-ward and eroding the W-ern portion of the subtropical ridge. This will also act to nudge the mid level ridge a little NW-ward and into N-ern FL.
2072. IKE
Latest 00Z ECMWF track on Colin is very similar to the 6Z GFS...at 162 hours....east of Presslord.....



the NOAA's G-IV will fly late tonight

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 01 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-063

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV
SURVEILLANCE MISSION OUT OF TISX AROUND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SYSTEM FOR 04/0000Z IF IT DEVELOPS
2074. Walshy
Not one place in North Carolina hit 80 degrees yesterday, according to weatherunderground. But that wedge of clouds hitting the Appalachian Mountains is coming to a end today.



ALL OF THE MODELS CURVE COLIN NORTHWARD...WHICH WOULD PLACE COLIN
DUE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AT 24.5 NORTH BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
COLIN HAS MOVED TOWARD 283 DEGREES AT 25 KTS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY IT IS FORECAST TO CURVE SO MUCH GIVEN
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
THE SPEED AT WHICH IT IS MOVING. AND IF IT DID NOT CHANGE COURSE
IT WOULD CROSS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE. IT MAY BE
SPECULATED THAT FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
STATED THAT INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL TRACK AT THIS
POINT MOISTURE FROM COLIN BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY. BETTER SHOWERS RETURN ON TUESDAY AS AN
AREA OF MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS EXTENDING AT LEAST UP THROUGH 700
MB ENTERS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
Quoting atmosweather:


The approaching trough will amplify later this week, pushing its energy SE-ward and eroding the W-ern portion of the subtropical ridge. This will also act to nudge the mid level ridge a little NW-ward and into N-ern FL.


Ok. I believe ya but still confused. Lol. No problem I think this toothache has gone to my brain. :) Thanks.
The D storm into TX/MX?

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ok. I believe ya but still confused. Lol. No problem I think this toothache has gone to my brain. :) Thanks.


What will basically happen is that the amplifying trough will just simply sit in between the ridge you mentioned over FL and the subtropical ridge...which will provide the weakness between the 2 ridges for Colin to move through. The question is how large the weakness will be and how long will it be before ridging returns to the E-ern seaboard and the W ATL. I'm sticking to the left side of the current model guidance.
2079. IKE
For what it's worth with the models, I don't see anything threatening in the GOM the next 7-10 days. Come on BP...get that relief well finished.

TIA

$$
Quoting atmosweather:


What will basically happen is that the amplifying trough will just simply sit in between the ridge you mentioned over FL and the subtropical ridge...which will provide the weakness between the 2 ridges for Colin to move through. The question is how large the weakness will be and how long will it be before ridging returns to the E-ern seaboard and the W ATL. I'm sticking to the left side of the current model guidance.


Ah. Ok thanks. :) Now I see. I'm leaning to the left too.
is it possible for an andrew type path?
Quoting IKE:
For what it's worth with the models, I don't see anything threatening in the GOM the next 7-10 days. Come on BP...get that relief well finished.

TIA

$$


Don't sleep on the E Caribbean disturbance yet...it will likely mirror Colin's motion closely later this week once the A/B high breaks down to the W. Could be a problem for the W Caribbean and the CONUS.
Quoting IKE:
For what it's worth with the models, I don't see anything threatening in the GOM the next 7-10 days. Come on BP...get that relief well finished.

TIA

$$




That was a scary 18z run yesterday... However, that run of course is now obsolete.
Quoting SaintPatrick:
is it possible for an andrew type path?


Cannot be ruled out although it is unlikely for as strong a ridge as the one that steered Andrew to build in after the NE-ern trough exits.
Quoting Walshy:
Not one place in North Carolina hit 80 degrees yesterday, according to weatherunderground. But that wedge of clouds hitting the Appalachian Mountains is coming to a end today.





It's been VERY nice! My house was so quiet without the AC running constantly.
Quoting IKE:
For what it's worth with the models, I don't see anything threatening in the GOM the next 7-10 days. Come on BP...get that relief well finished.

TIA

$$


They just need to Take Care of Business and maybe work some overtime another classic in your collection. Link
Link

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
622 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A DEEP TUTT
LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 25N 63W WITH AXIS
SOUTH TO PUERTO RICO/EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN BEGINS TO PULL NORTH AS A
CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO...WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES. THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE DRIVING CELLS WEST
ACROSS THE USVI AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ONLY SHOWING RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 15-20MM. I AM
EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THIS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT ALOFT AND TOPOGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO.
HE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS TS COLIN...WHICH THE NHC FORECASTS
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS LATE ON THURSDAY. BY THAT
TIME THE TUTT ALOFT WILL BE GONE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW PWS TO REMAIN
HIGH INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS...BUT RATHER AN INDIRECT IMPACT...AS
IT WILL SUSTAIN A MOIST INFLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS THAT COULD LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IF THE STORM REMAINS AS
WEAK AS THE NHC FORESEES WE COULD BE FACING ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS.
THE ECMWF AND REGIONAL NAM ENTERTAIN THIS IDEA WHILE THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE DOWNPLAYING IT TOO MUCH.

CONSIDERING THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...I AM LEANING TOWARDS A WETTER
PATTERN TO START LATE ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
2088. Hhunter
Quoting pcolacoffeeluver:


I am a "lurker" as I have heard (read) you all refer to those of us who come to this site to find out whats going on with storms but seldom post. I have been lurking and learning since 2004. I might have posted 2 or 3 times. This is my first post this year and will probably be my only one, as I mostly weed through all the nonsense looking for the REAL information. I just needed to say BRAVO! Excellent post ncforecaster.
...whatever
funny they are saying the same from the crown weather Discussion


Tropical Storm Colin:
Here is the 5 am EDT/4 am CDT Information On Tropical Storm Colin:
Location: 14.0 North Latitude, 47.2 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph.
Movement: West-Northwest or 285 Degrees at a forward speed of 23 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

TD #4 has become better organized overnight and satellite imagery is showing curved bands of convection wrapping about halfway around the storm on its western side. Intensity estimates based on satellite imagery indicates that this system now has 40 mph winds; so it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin by the National Hurricane Center. Some strengthening is likely today through Wednesday as wind shear values will generally range from 7 to 14 knots. After Wednesday, westerly wind shear is forecast to increase over the storm thanks to an upper level low pressure system over the southwest Atlantic. One caveat to this intensity forecast is that if Colin tracks further south than what the guidance package is forecast (which is quite possible), not as much shear will impact the storm and greater strengthening would be possible. For now, I’m following the NHC intensity forecast and cap the storm off at 60 mph by Wednesday.

Colin is currently tracking west-northwest at a forward speed of 23 mph. Colin is currently being steered by a ridge of high pressure to its north and an easterly tropical jet. Colin is forecast to continue tracking slightly north of due west at a forward speed of 20+ mph today into tonight. By Wednesday, the storm should slow down some in forward speed as it starts to feel a weakness in the high pressure ridge. The track model guidance is in pretty good agreement with the forecast track from today through Wednesday, however, after Wednesday, the track guidance continues to diverge on a forecast track. The GFS model and the European model has shifted westward overnight in its forecast track with the Euro model forecasting a track across the extreme northern Leeward Islands by late Wednesday and then a track to the east of the Bahamas on Friday into Saturday with a close brush with the outer banks of North Carolina on Monday. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to forecast a track well out into the Atlantic and imply a possible threat to Bermuda in about five days. The Canadian model is even further west and forecasts a track that would impact much of the Leeward Islands Wednesday night into Thursday morning, Puerto Rico during the day Thursday, much of the Bahamas from Friday through Saturday and ultimately a track that keeps it just barely offshore of the coast of eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina during Sunday and Monday.

Personally, I continue to think that the many of the model guidance members are still overdoing the strength of the low pressure trough and eroding the ridge of high pressure too much. I’m leaning towards a track somewhere between the European and Canadian model and this is significantly west of the National Hurricane Center forecast. Could I be wrong?? Absolutely!!; but this is what my analysis is showing and I’m sticking to my guns that this will track further west like what the Canadian and European models are implying. So, this may actually track right over the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday night as a tropical storm and just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during Thursday morning as a tropical storm. After that, I suspect that this may take a track very close to or just a shade east of the Bahamas Friday through Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane and then potentially come fairly close, but not make landfall on the US Southeast Atlantic coast Sunday and Monday as a hurricane.

All interests in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should continue to closely monitor the progress of this storm. I will continue to monitor things closely and keep you all updated.

Quoting IKE:


Tens...hundreds...thousands.

I know where "C" isn't going and that's the GOM.


How can you say that! It's still too far out to dismiss this possibility! A high might possibly, maybe materialize from nothing that we can see if the foreseeable future and push/hold this TS down, this possible HUR of the future and take it to Mexico or maybe into the Pacific.

How is that for Cloudy and bitter...LOL
Interesting ike.Crownweather states now a trough will turn Colin off the us coast, but the same time the system in the se carrib will go due west into central america lol.Which is a strong high or through? because at the current one is at 14n the other is at 12 north.I guess i am confused but is thier a trough or a ridge, one goes due north one goes due west lol.
2093. IKE
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


How can you say that! It's still too far out to dismiss this possibility! A high might possibly, maybe materialize from nothing that we can see if the foreseeable future and push/hold this TS down, this possible HUR of the future and take it to Mexico or maybe into the Pacific.

How is that for Cloudy and bitter...LOL


I'll trust the NHC. If they're that wrong on track, then I'll be wrong. Won't be the first time.

Heard this gem on Sirius 14 the other day.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Interesting ike.Crownweather states now a trough will turn Colin off the us coast, but the same time the system in the se carrib will go due west into central america lol.Which is a strong high or through? because at the current one is at 14n the other is at 12 north.I guess i am confused but is thier a trough or a ridge, one goes due north one goes due west lol.
the system in the Caribbean is too far south to feel the effects of the trough that may have any influence on Colin. If the Caribbean disturbance makes any moves toward the gulf it will be due to the back side of the high, barring any additional troughs but it is so low I don't see a trough being that strong that far south this time of year.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Interesting ike.Crownweather states now a trough will turn Colin off the us coast, but the same time the system in the se carrib will go due west into central america lol.Which is a strong high or through? because at the current one is at 14n the other is at 12 north.I guess i am confused but is thier a trough or a ridge, one goes due north one goes due west lol.
the trough is between the two ridges, sandwiched. Should the subtropical build a little further west then colin may go a little further west. If the trough weakens or lifts any and the ridges bridge then the CONUS may be at risk.
sorry, meant to put those two thought in one post but got an itchy trigger finger...
2097. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
the system in the Caribbean is too far south to feel the effects of the trough that may have any influence on Colin. If the Caribbean disturbance makes any moves toward the gulf it will be due to the back side of the high, barring any additional troughs but it is so low I don't see a trough being that strong that far south this time of year.


Looks like it's moving west...aiming for Honduras...Guatemala....Nicaragua...might be 92L.
Quoting IKE:


I'll trust the NHC. If they're that wrong on track, then I'll be wrong. Won't be the first time.

Heard this gem on Sirius 14 the other day.


Man, I hadn't heard that song in forever. Thanks for the memories.
2100. Engine2
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS spins it up.

That could potentially put the mid-atlantic & southern new england in play
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOMENG
5:00 PM PhST August 3 2010
=============================================

At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Domeng located at 15.1°N 129.4°E or 500 kms east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 3 knots.

Additional Information
========================
This weather disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 PM today.
2102. surfmom
Quoting IKE:
For what it's worth with the models, I don't see anything threatening in the GOM the next 7-10 days. Come on BP...get that relief well finished.

TIA

$$


Good Morning & I second that IKE - it's like having AN oily boogey man out there waiting to slim my beach
Morning all - looks like another 24-48 of wait and see, wait and see.

Still cool this morning - low 70s and a little ground fog because of the light drizzle overnight. 80s today, 90s tomorrow and back to the heat index on Thursday.
Quoting IKE:


I'll trust the NHC. If they're that wrong on track, then I'll be wrong. Won't be the first time.

Heard this gem on Sirius 14 the other day.


The NHC is getting better every year. The wind intensity is still off; but they have been doing much better of predicting projected paths particularly early on. In the past you could never count on them for any type of projected path until a system is at least a TS. This year they have at least been in the correct ball park. IMHO
2105. IKE
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


Man, I hadn't heard that song in forever. Thanks for the memories.


Here's a McCartney gem from.... Ram...."""so I stood with a knot in my stomach and gazed at that terrible sight"""...Link

2106. surfmom
Morning Hades - PI -- gets the quakes & it seems so many of the storms.
Surfgodfather will be returning stateside in two weeks~We've been watching his weather for three years Hades...remember he got married in that Typhoon?

just want to say thanks this morning for helping me keep the "lookout" going for him!!!

2107. breald
Quoting Engine2:

That could potentially put the mid-atlantic & southern new england in play


They get hurricanes up there? LOL.
surfmom: yup Typhoon Frank and morning =)
Goooood morning! TS Colin we have on our hands...
Good Morning. I see we have Colin.
2111. surfmom
Getting ready for the morning run,SRQ won't even check the heat index -- sometimes it's better to be ignorant - definitely a hosedown b/4 I start morning
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning. I see we have Colin.


Yup. Still heading south of the NHC track, and if it doesn't start turning to the NW, we're going to have a direct impact on the US Leeward/Virgin islands.
Quoting IKE:


Here's a McCartney gem from.... Ram...."""so I stood with a knot in my stomach and gazed at that terrible sight"""...Link



Very nice. I love that feeder band right in front of it- classic tropical storm.
Morning, Surf - I'm waiting for the heat to return - better to be hot than windy, LOL
2115. surfmom
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
surfmom: yup Typhoon Frank and morning =)

OMGOSH!!! you are AMAZING!!!! - YOU REMEMBERED the name of the Typhoon!!!! sheesh remembered you gave me the heads-up - and several folks left for the wedding a few day(s) early & avoided that ferry mishap!!! I'll always say you were a HERO on that one....you made quite a difference in several peoples lives : )
2116. MahFL
The center of Colin seems to be about 1/5 of a lat box further south then forcast.
new steering map is out and even more so west what in the word is going on with the models

by the looks of it TS Colin is the caribbean storm and watching for the past several hours TS Colin has been moving WEST-WEST-WESTWARD

2118. surfmom
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, Surf - I'm waiting for the heat to return - better to be hot than windy, LOL


specially in a house of men - LOL
you can take shade from the sun -- wind will get to you every time bawhahahaaaa
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
DEPRESSION FOUR BECOMES THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Yep, so where is your open wave you thought was coming....haha
2120. MahFL
Go west !
2121. IKE
Colin....

=)

of course I remember a storm that got retired and I am glad to have helped with the early warnings.
Where are all of the 04L RIP-ers?
2125. BrandiQ
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?


Good. How have you been?
2126. Becca36
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?

Great Storm, how are you? Good morning everyone!
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?


Hey, Storm! Doing fine, how 'bout you? Funny that all of the fishcasters and the 04L RIP-ers have suddenly disappeared... :)
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:

Yep, so where is your open wave you thought was coming....haha


Tell me about it. That cat is so wishy washy.
Quoting surfmom:


specially in a house of men - LOL
you can take shade from the sun -- wind will get to you every time bawhahahaaaa


ROFLMAO - Surf - what did you feed them???

L&M off this morning for the remainder of the month. Will have to send updates if this heads further up the coast...
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?

Doing good Storm, thanks. How are you? Sure looks like Collin wants to stay on a more Westward course. At this speed, when do you think it will make its turn, if it does?
2133. Prgal
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?


Good morning to you Storm and to everyone.
2134. BrandiQ
Quoting StormW:


Good. You?


Just watchin' Colin, hoping it takes the turn the NHC is calling for....
2135. gator23
Quoting Snowlover123:


Hey, Storm! Doing fine, how 'bout you? Funny that all of the fishcasters and the 04L RIP-ers have suddenly disappeared... :)

what makes me laugh about that is, do those people really watch the tropics to see somewhere get hit?
Cyclonic Storm Colin
=======================

2010AUG03 1045z

Final T No. T2.3 Pressure: 1006.6 hPa Winds: 33.0 knots

Final 2.3
Adjusted 2.6
Raw 3.5 <-- Severe Tropical Storm?
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?


Good. Keepin an eye on Colin to see if it's gonna affect us in NC. Brother in law has an awful lot of corn to harvest in next few weeks.
Hey Mcluv = you are so right about the wishy washy cool dude. So what do you think Colin is going to do? Do you think it will be a fish storm? Just watching the Sat/Steering Currents and the strength of this storm, I really don't see it making that much of a curve. IMO. I think just North of the Islands then into Southern Florida. Again, JMO
Quoting gator23:

what makes me laugh about that is, do those people really watch the tropics to see somewhere get hit?


I know right?

Quoting largeeyes:


Good. Keepin an eye on Colin to see if it's gonna affect us in NC. Brother in law has an awful lot of corn to harvest in next few weeks.


Know all about the corn. My father lost over 100 acres of corn during Bertha.
This morning our local news met said that Collins is NOT coming to Florida. He feels confident enough to completely take Florida out of the picture.
We'll wait and see.
good morning bloggers
Morning Everyone. My thought for the day. With the "hangover" from the 2005 season which was quite an anomoly (will not be repeated anytime soon) and a very active season forecast by the experts for this year, lot's of folks on here have "busted" this season. If you look at the 100 year climatology patterns, the real action will not start until late-August and we will certainly have clusters of storms from late-August through September. Right now, we are on our third storm (potential fish and small size notwithstanding) so no reason to think that this season will not be active. The "switch" has not been thrown yet by Mother Nature but it will come in due time and we will have a few real monsters on our hands this year. It's not about the numbers; it's about track and intensity.....Colin is not "the one" but it will only take one ot two later on down the road to cause death and destruction in the Antilles or the US.........I am glad that Colin may be a fish but it will hopefully cause folks to pay close attention to what will come within the next two months.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new steering map is out and even more so west what in the word is going on with the models

by the looks of it TS Colin is the caribbean storm and watching for the past several hours TS Colin has been moving WEST-WEST-WESTWARD

it'll be o.k. if this storm is a fish storm. Sooner or later one will hit land. I think all nhc staff should quit and let people from this blog that constantly say nhc is wrong work there; even if nhc is usually correct, and so are the models, especially this year... hear fishy fishy!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new steering map is out and even more so west what in the word is going on with the models

by the looks of it TS Colin is the caribbean storm and watching for the past several hours TS Colin has been moving WEST-WEST-WESTWARD



Right now, since Colin is not very strong yet, the low level steering currents are currently steering it. If Colin doesn't intensify any more, it may travel into the Caribbean. However, if it stregnthens, and those warm-ish clouds become cold-ish clouds, the cyclone will be influenced by the upper level steering currents, making it a possible East Coast storm. This is a very difficult Tropical Cyclone to track, and a difficult Tropical Cyclone to forecast, intensity wise. We had some folks yesterday RIP-ing 04L. We knew that it would become a Tropical Storm today, but I suspect that as this continues to chug to the WNW, disagreements in the intensity and track may become common, as seen yesterday.
8 am TWO

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Hey Mcluv = you are so right about the wishy washy cool dude. So what do you think Colin is going to do? Do you think it will be a fish storm? Just watching the Sat/Steering Currents and the strength of this storm, I really don't see it making that much of a curve. IMO. I think just North of the Islands then into Southern Florida. Again, JMO


Don't think it will be a fish storm and never have. I'm sticking with my east coast Skimmer forecast. I've seen so many storms get to Florida and ride the coast until the hit NC which sticks out like a sore thumb. Not to mention the warm gulf stream for strengthening

Thanks.
Quoting JupiterFL:


You should really lay off.


He spammed me with ridiculous e-mail messages. That's the first time I've ever gotten such nonsense!
2151. IKE
SHIPS shear forecast SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 7 12 13 23 22 27 19 26 18 27
....Colin.

Ending coordinates....31.8N and 69.7W....SHIPS.

Quoting IKE:
SHIPS shear forecastSHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 7 12 13 23 22 27 19 26 18 27
....Colin.

Ending coordinates....31.8N and 69.7W....SHIPS.



Upper Level Wind Shear forecast is less than yesterday.
Quoting StormW:


It's going to hinge on the strength of the trof off the east coast of the U.S., and what the ridge over the extreme SE does. I do expect him to be left of the 5:00 a.m. track. I suspect Colin should slow down very late this evening, or begin sometime tomorrow. This will be the key, for once he picks up again, there's two ways to go...further west, or begin a more NW track in line with the NHC. Right now the orientation of the SubTropical ridge has shifted a little, allowing for the more 280-285 motion.

Right now, he's embedded in an easterly LLJ (Low Level Jet), which is imparting a more westward component. He is also "feeling" the weakness between the two ridges, but not as much, do to the stronger jet.



If you look at the satellite loop, mainly out in front of Colin, you get a good idea of the steering regime.

Be sure to overlay the forecast points.
RGB LOOP

I would almost say at the moment, he could make a track in between the current forecast points, and north portion of the Lesser Antilles. Just one thought at the moment.


As always Storm, thanks for the information. Much respect for your thought and posts on here. Hope all goes well with your sons appointment today.
Quoting StormW:
How's everyone this morning?
Morning Storm!! I noticed the MJO is turning back to octant 2 Link when would you predict it to be over our region and start causing atlantic avtivity to start picking up??
2156. IKE
84 hr. 6Z GFDL.....interesting track on the eastern Caribbean wave....

i watching this tropical wave to.
2158. smuldy
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new steering map is out and even more so west what in the word is going on with the models

by the looks of it TS Colin is the caribbean storm and watching for the past several hours TS Colin has been moving WEST-WEST-WESTWARD

It's been moving west by west west all night, gained less than 1d lat while pushing more than 3d west, yet still tracks are tracks and haven't budged so they see something
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
8 am TWO

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Is the wave in the Carb. the one the models had as a hurricane in the Gulf?
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is the wave in the Carb. the one the models had as a hurricane in the Gulf?


Yes it is... Stay Classy WU bloggers :)
2163. P451
Good Morning.

12HR WV Imagery of Colin ending 715AM ET





Not shown in this image is the ULL north of PR which seems to have slowed down and began to get a little squashed W-E.

Good Morning Storm. Well it appears our storm is still not on track for an out to sea scenario. The fact that Colin is not rapidly developing represents his westward movement. Just not strong enough to feel the weakness from that upper level low.
2166. IKE
Dr. Masters should be updating within a half-hour.

6Z GFDL at 126 hours....

2167. WxLogic
Good Morning...

So we have Colin now...
Quoting IKE:
SHIPS shear forecastSHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 7 12 13 23 22 27 19 26 18 27
....Colin.

Ending coordinates....31.8N and 69.7W....SHIPS.



It looks like SHIPS is decreasing the forecasted shear for Colin. For those of us in SNE, we need to watch this carefully. Colin could be a hurricane off the US East Coast sometime late this weekend. Again everything needs to go right for a New England landfall, but it needs to be monitored.
Good morning all! The 8A Atl Trop Discussion still shows the 5AM position of TS Colin. Does anyone have the 8AM position? Yes, it appears the storm is moving west, west, west.
Satellite imagery shows that Colin is evidently better organized than it was last night. Steering layers from CIMSS suggest that Colin should be moving towards the W, however the large weakness to the north may make him move just north of west.
Quoting StormW:


If it keeps ahead of the forecast, about 5-7 days. If it slows, 7-10 days.







thanks storm, so by Aug 10th onward things should pick up..are you still going with 15 plus named?? Im sticking with 16 named. I also wanted to ask your opinion on if you feel the ridg/ trough setup for this summer, could we have more recurving storms or 2004 tracks?? Thanks
2172. P451
AVN Loop. Seems to have a steady course and no re-curve as of yet. Certain to slip south of the next forecast point.

2173. IKE
System needs a steroid shot....



Quoting P451:
AVN Loop. Seems to have a steady course and no re-curve as of yet. Certain to slip south of the next forecast point.



If this trend continues, then it will impact the US Leeward Islands.
Quoting P451:
AVN Loop. Seems to have a steady course and no re-curve as of yet. Certain to slip south of the next forecast point.

That, and it is way ahead of timing, that forecast point is for 2PM EDT.
2176. whs2012
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is the wave in the Carb. the one the models had as a hurricane in the Gulf?


And it hasn't been designated an invest yet?
Quoting IKE:
System needs a steroid shot....





It looks much better than some tropical cyclones, and its vorticy has tightened, indicating that it is still organizing.
Is that an ULL over the Cayman Islands or a mid level circulation?
2180. IKE
Put it on the Wide ATL view......speed it up a little...(to the small letter "a" on Animation.) Stand back about 3 feet from the computer and you can see it's moving north of west.

Quoting IKE:
Put it on the Wide ATL view......speed it up a little...(to the small letter "a" on Animation.) Stand back about 3 feet from the computer and you can see it's moving north of west.



But since you have to take all of those measures, it's moving very slightly north of west, which is what the NHC has for the storm.
Storm- hope all goes well today with your son.

I have a hard time seeing how Colin could move that much of a N NW movement that quickly based on the current projected path.

I am also waiting to see how much he slows down. It will be interesting to see how long he remains in the LLJ and how much more shifting in that subtropical ridge.

What are your thoughts on the sheer forecast?
2183. IKE
If he bends just a touch more right, he'll miss those northern islands.
2185. IKE
Quoting Snowlover123:


But since you have to take all of those measures, it's moving very slightly north of west, which is what the NHC has for the storm.


Well....it is important which direction he's moving and "all of those measures" took about 2 seconds.
I would say that Colin is moving towards 280˚-285˚ which is just slightly north of west.
Morning everyone!!
Quoting IKE:
Put it on the Wide ATL view......speed it up a little...(to the small letter "a" on Animation.) Stand back about 3 feet from the computer and you can see it's moving north of west.



That is too complicated....I'll take your word for it Ike.......LOL
2190. aquak9
Stand back about 3 feet from the computer and you can see it's moving north of west.


Dang, Ike...and I thought MY eyes were bad...

Good morning WU-Bloggers. I want a storm about 60 miles offa the coast of Florida, then heading OUT. Not too much to ask.

Much obliged if ya'll could take care of that for me.
NEW BLOG
2192. aquak9
YO DRAGONFLY!!

No more Dental Pics!! :)
Good morning everyone!

Tropical Storm Colin


Caribbean AOI that needs to be watched. NHC gives this a 20% chance of development.
2194. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting IKE:
If he bends just a touch more right, he'll miss those northern islands.
He would need to start moving towards the NW now for him to miss the islands. Currently you can't even call his motion WNW, looks like it is is just a tad north of W.
Quoting IKE:
Put it on the Wide ATL view......speed it up a little...(to the small letter "a" on Animation.) Stand back about 3 feet from the computer and you can see it's moving north of west.



I have it going just south of east.....oh wait my monitor is upside down.....ok, that's better. Just north of west.
im not bashing colin im just saying there is no evidence of a llc on satelite i dont we now were the realy center is for all u nkow it could be north of 15w
Quoting smuldy:
It's been moving west by west west all night, gained less than 1d lat while pushing more than 3d west, yet still tracks are tracks and haven't budged so they see something


Yesterday at 8am the NHC forecast took TD4 to 15 degrees North Latitude, 50 degrees West Latitude.
Now here we are 24 hours later and that's pretty much right where TD4 is located.

2199. cg2916
Morning everyone!

We have Colin! It's now 4-3-1-0 (4 is TDs). Certainly gotten bigger than last night. You need some meat on those bones to get through the dry air.

Also, just about every model from the 6Z run is going for a recurvature. The high is already building over AL and GA (evidence being, this morning in SC, I did see a bird catch fire mid-flight). Miami, what do you think, it seems as though the models are losing it. But we have to remember, they're models.
Is DR. Grays new forcast on August 4 ?
2201. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Wave coming off of Africa

Good morning, TS Colin imo has been moving due west or a lil n of due west like a bat out of hell for the last 12 hours.