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Tropical depression forming over the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) over the eastern Bahama Islands has developed a closed circulation at the surface, and has become a tropical depression or tropical storm. Here is the text of the Special Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC at 8:25am EDT today:

Visible satellite images and observations from the Bahamas indicate that the area of low pressure in the southeastern Bahamas has become better organized and a closed circulation has formed. Advisories on a tropical depression or a tropical storm will be initiated at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC today. This advisory will likely include tropical storm watches and warnings for portions of the Bahamas and southern Florida.

Satellite images of 97L show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have slowly increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the west of 97L, over Florida. This dry air is associated with a large upper-level low pressure system that is moving west at about the same speed 97L is. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the upper low is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to 97L. Surface observations in the Bahamas and several nearby ships have shown top winds in 97L of up to 35 mph, so the storm is close to the 40 mph winds needed to be classified as a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image showing dry air (brown colors) associated with the upper-level low over Florida. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west to west-northwest through Saturday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) had the advantage of having data from a flight of the NOAA jet last night, so we have higher confidence than usual in the track of 97L over the next two days. The location of 97L's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast has the usual uncertainties for 3 - 4 days, with the various models calling for landfall somewhere between the upper Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle coast. Given the uncertainties, the move halt operations in the Deepwater Horizon blowout recovery effort are probably wise.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. As long as this low remains in its present location, relative to 97L, it will bring wind shear of about 20 knots and dry air into the storm. This will limit the intensification potential of 97L to no more than about 10 - 20 mph per day. If the upper-level low picks up speed and pulls away from 97L, the storm may be able to intensify at a faster rate. None of the computer models is calling for that to happen, but it is possible. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico at 20%.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and may barely have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

I'll have an update after NHC releases their 11am advisory package.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting DestinJeff:


Thats off look at the spiral bands location on RGB.

Quoting BahaHurican:
People, if u are going to reference Katrina/Wilma/Rita/Ivan/Andrew/David etc, please give CORRECT information. Katrina was NOT still a depression at 80W.... it was a cat 1 getting ready to hit Miami...

I'm still saying that while this storm may have some similarities to the aforementioned storm from 2005 in term of current location, there are some dissimilarities which are likely to lead to differences in track, forward speed, wind strength and even size. Let's observe this one in realtime, not in reminisce-time...
Right! I saw that post too and Katrina formed into a depression at 23.3 N and 75.5. It was a Cat1 Hurricane with 75/80 mph winds as it hit land.
yeah! TD3 now in nhc!
TD3 is on the map.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Tropical depression at 11 am
NHC now says TD#3Link
HERE IT IS..
509. MahFL
bah TD.....:(
Quoting kuppenskup:
Not to brag but Im the one who said on Tuesday, "Dont expect this system to become a Depression til Thursday morning." Anyway now this baby is starting to get it's act together quickly.


Well congratulations... you da man. Can I get you something do drink? Maybe a hot towel, slippers?
TD 3 on the graphic

No Bonnie just yet
513. IKE
I don't see no update NHC!

*Makes another pot of coffee*

There it is....

Its up.
515. 7544
td now no ts yet officail
Its up!
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221459
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
ITS TD NUMBER3
Not to brag but when on Tuesday everyone was calling this a Tropical Depression Im the one who said "Dont expect Depression status til Thursday" Anyway this baby is starting to blow up fast!
ahhhh nope its td3!!!
Quoting whs2012:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


That's 4 hours old
00
WTNT33 KNHC 221459
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAHAMAS...AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 75.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM ESE OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
what the ... the discussion is from 00 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009
Quoting whs2012:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221224
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


Oops, pasted wrong. :o)
OMG the cone of prollabillity is a QUESTION MARK.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!


Not good, not good at all.
529. IKE
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
75.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
I have a hard time believing it is only going to get to 50 mph.
Looks like they are going to let the plane make the call.
Its placement and track reminds me of ol Rita, TRACK PEOPLE, not intensity
Quoting kuppenskup:
Not to brag but when on Tuesday everyone was calling this a Tropical Depression Im the one who said "Dont expect Depression status til Thursday" Anyway this baby is starting to blow up fast!


How many times are you going to post that?

Shut the front door.
The center is continuing to build north. look at the visible below. IMAO......


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html
How come the cone isn't up yet?
They only take it up to 50mph lol

Why are those people calling for a major hurricane?
wifey just called me hyperventilating breathing into paper bag while watching WSVN gloom and doom people LOL
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
HERE IT IS..

You gave up on this yesterday...said RIP and now here you are all hyped up again. That is cool if you are but please dont start the false forecasting again....have a great day
Lets make sure the 11am nhc report is posted a thousand times
542. xcool
TD IN GOM HMM
BTW, 98L looks better
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE
hmm,if it stays off land from its position here to a possible landfall in louisanna or there abouts "3 days from now a landfall"?. It would have to move around 20 mph right through, that might be a bit suspicious to me i don't what u guys think on that.
Remember, intensity is hard to predict. It could very well be stronger than 50 mph.
547. 900MB
Quoting AllStar17:
I have a hard time believing it is only going to get to 50 mph.


Agreed!
Accuweather says it has been a depression for some time now, TD3 should become a storm and possible cat1 hurricane before its final landing in Louisiana or Texas next week? Right now sheer is keeping it from being a stronger storm.
Quoting Jeff9641:
The center is continuing to build north. look at the visible below. IMAO......


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html


This is not coming to Central Florida.....
Quoting RitaEvac:
BTW, 98L looks better


It certainly does.
Been lurker here since '04 and have posted a few times. Always come here for accurate information. I'm in Clearwater. Is it safe to say we are not going to see much from this? Looks like there would have to be a major shift. TIA!
75.0 WEST.

?
Can't wait to see the track cone.
They're calling it a depression , but I wouldn't be surprised if the next flight shows otherwise .
the UUL over 25n 65w appears to be pushing on the new depression#3 keeping it moveing more west ....and may cause it to move into the western gulf over time ...
556. xcool
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE...
???
Quoting Jeff9641:
The center is continuing to build north. look at the visible below. IMAO......


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html


Northcaster
Quoting Ameister12:
Can't wait to see the track cone.


they not even update the 98L... not recon to that one...?
They put it at 75.0 west, which doesn't seem correct to me.
Can't find any data from recon..
Quoting Ameister12:
Can't wait to see the track cone.


You can pretty well figure it out from the Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities chart at the nhc site
Track will shift north at 5pm due to it's continued northwestward build. Look at the visible sat and zoom in and you will see what I'm talking about.
Quoting extreme236:
They put it at 75.0 west, which doesn't seem correct to me.
Me either.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
15-20% chance of TS force winds in the Houston area...what do you think of this?
Quoting StadiumEffect:
None of the Bahamian islands are of any significant size that they would really affect a cyclone. Especially ones that aren't stationary or don't have a very slow forward speed.
The only island consider "good size islands are Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas don't make any different to a system, to small.
Developing TD in BOC..
Max Mayfield stating that 97L will not be able to go anywhere north of southern Florida because of a ridge to the north regardless of how strong it is.
548. bohonkweatherman 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Accuweather says it has been a depression for some time now, TD3 should become a storm and possible cat1 hurricane before its final landing in Louisiana or Texas next week? Right now sheer is keeping it from being a stronger storm.



I was thinking far east tx coast to eastern la earlier but I got hammered!!!!!!!!!!! time will tell
Quoting LdyAvalon:
Been lurker here since '04 and have posted a few times. Always come here for accurate information. I'm in Clearwater. Is it safe to say we are not going to see much from this? Looks like there would have to be a major shift. TIA!

rain.
Think I see a pinhole eye on that last frame.

Wait that's just a gnat on ma screen nevermind.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't find any data from recon..


Neither can I. No data from recon on Google Earth.
They said the Upper level low over Florida is producing strong sheer over TD3 and this may continue for awhile? The Upper low is moving west southwest though and could move away from what will soon be Bonnie. This according to Accuweather.
since the models are suspect at showing intensity levels much above a 3...we can conclude they will also perhaps not understand that if the current anticylone above helps this thing generate to a hurricane...what would prevent it from following this developing storm...as it slips through the Fl straits....and hanging with it if it explodes into a major hurricane..which they can do inside of 48 hours??
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Developing TD in BOC..


Looks very organized.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
548. bohonkweatherman 3:05 PM GMT on July 22, 2010
Accuweather says it has been a depression for some time now, TD3 should become a storm and possible cat1 hurricane before its final landing in Louisiana or Texas next week? Right now sheer is keeping it from being a stronger storm.



I was thinking far east tx coast to eastern la earlier but I got hammered!!!!!!!!!!! time will tell

12 percent chance of it becomeing a hurricane before landfall in the gulf as per the NHC
The NHC does say there is low confidence in this forecast.
Has anyone seen this yet??


000
WTNT43 KNHC 221503
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Umm 50 mph? that's it? Come on NHC, look at those water temps and also take note the ULL is moving further away. I think TD3 will surprise you guys more then us later today.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Max Mayfield stating that 97L will not be able to go anywhere north of southern Florida because of a ridge to the north regardless of how strong it is.


TD 3 now. Learn some manners I think its earned it :P.
I saw that ridge yesterday, and was wondering if it was going to drive TD3 west into Central Gulf or even NW Gulf
Well folks, we are nearing the end of july, just when things really get busy. This is just the beginning.
587. MahFL
75 seems wrong to me too.
588. 7544
yep the plane will find a ts
Quoting ElConando:


TD 3 now. Learn some manners I think its earned it :P.
LOL.
When they say "east coast" of FL, they mean just the coast, not inland. Just to clear this up for some who may not know.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Not good, not good at all.


What you mean, as a Tropical Storm? I believe that what's not good at all are the chances of it becoming a Hurricane 15% tops, but if you refer to a tropical storm maybe even a strong one, yes you could be right not good at all, not only for Texas, but for Louisiana and Mississippi because it will push that dogone oil ashore.
"STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS."

A 1 ft to 2 ft storm surge will have no real effect on East or South Florida coast or in the Bahamas.

However, a 1-2 ft storm surge can be a disaster when it crosses the oil spill in the Gulf. That can carry the oil a mile or more into coastal marsh land or push oil into the bays.

Even though strength potential may be limited, the path is a worst-case for oil spill cleanup efforts.
594. xcool
td 65 imo imo


Only a TS in the GOM???
I think the cone should shift a bit northward at 5PM.

I dont like WU's track map on this one. it has it coming in around Freeport, Tx area
At this rate of speed assuming present course it will be in Key Largo in 27 hours.
Recon will certainly get a more accurate fix.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good morning!


good morning to you too :)
Quoting Jeff9641:
Track will shift north at 5pm due to it's continued northwestward build. Look at the visible sat and zoom in and you will see what I'm talking about.


You really don't get it do you. There is a strong ridge in place that will keep this storm from going North. You are the only one here "trying" to forecast a Northward motion
Exactly, look at where the convection is bulging out to and that is the current and projected path

Quoting Jeff9641:
Track will shift north at 5pm due to it's continued northwestward build. Look at the visible sat and zoom in and you will see what I'm talking about.
I hold low confidence with the models, none of which truly ever developed TD3.
Quoting weatherskink:
They're calling it a depression , but I wouldn't be surprised if the next flight shows otherwise .

I have a feeling from the following they think otherwise.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS
CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON
HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A
STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD
ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...
NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.
THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP
TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me either.


Miami no one seems to see this do you this building north or organizing more north.
CONES NOW POSTED ON NHC SITE!
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


What you mean, as a Tropical Storm? I believe that what's not good at all are the chances of it becoming a Hurricane 15% tops, but if you refer to a tropical storm maybe even a strong one, yes you could be right not good at all, not only for Texas, but for Louisiana and Mississippi because it will push that dogone oil ashore.


I was talking about the oil part.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Max Mayfield stating that 97L will not be able to go anywhere north of southern Florida because of a ridge to the north regardless of how strong it is.

Hurricane, dont you remember? he said that abotu Irene i wont stop watching.J.I.C.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Max Mayfield stating that 97L will not be able to go anywhere north of southern Florida because of a ridge to the north regardless of how strong it is.


Yup it's going through the Keys with prospects of a minimal TS. If it stays this tiny, N Miami might see clouds, scattered showers, and a breeze of 15-20.
Seems like they are moving this too fast IMO.. Fri PM. S.W. of Naples????
Quoting reedzone:
Umm 50 mph? that's it? Come on NHC, look at those water temps and also take note the ULL is moving further away. I think TD3 will surprise you guys more then us later today.


Once again Reed I think you should drive down there, rip the director out of his chair and take the place over.
614. 7544
all the stroms are to the north the heavy ones will effect dade and broward and wpb will get the stronger rains and stroms right
Quoting BahaHurican:
People, if u are going to reference Katrina/Wilma/Rita/Ivan/Andrew/David etc, please give CORRECT information. Katrina was NOT still a depression at 80W.... it was a cat 1 getting ready to hit Miami...

I'm still saying that while this storm may have some similarities to the aforementioned storm from 2005 in term of current location, there are some dissimilarities which are likely to lead to differences in track, forward speed, wind strength and even size. Let's observe this one in realtime, not in reminisce-time...


Good point, sorry, I had realized my error and changed it to 75 but a couple people had already quoted me by that time. You're right, there are more in the way of dissimilarities than similiarities at this point, I was responding to the guy who said that 97L looks like a midwest thunderstorm at this point, and I was saying that the K storm also was unimpressive when it was near these current coordinates., not comparing the two.
I kinda doubt that, (or at least not significantly) due to the ridge to it's north. But time will tell.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I hold low confidence with the models, none of which truly ever developed TD3.

cyber, both the GFDL and HWRF developed this storm and have constant in doing so for 3 days.
Actually this will be a good storm for Central and South Florida... we REALLY need the rain right now!!! The water table is low enough right now to handle 6" of rain efficiently, with only minor temporary ponding.
98L in the BOC should be classified as a TD as well. The organization of the system has continued to improve since the early morning hours.
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


You really don't get it do you. There is a strong ridge in place that will keep this storm from going North. You are the only one here "trying" to forecast a Northward motion


Get your facts straight.. I called it last night along with others and again this morning. It is building to where the best convection and vorticty lies once this is established then a wnw motion will insue.
Good morning all!
I've been lurking and learning here for awhile .... I should have known something was coming this way, I teach college and our summer finals are Monday and Tuesday, lucky students, they might have more time to study. JOY!
Quoting Jeff9641:
The center is continuing to build north. look at the visible below. IMAO......


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html
The center it to the south-west side of the heavy convection. The circulation is pulling in moisture from the north/north-east and attempting to close off the western side, giving it the appearance of a northward component. Don't pay attention to the convection, pay attention the the center itself.
Quoting bjdsrq:


Yup it's going through the Keys with prospects of a minimal TS. If it stays this tiny, N Miami might see clouds, scattered showers, and a breeze of 15-20.
I'm thinking that the center will go over the keys, but the worst weather appears to be north of the center.
Is there anything to limit intesification, once the ULL gets it's bum out of the way??
626. jpsb
Quoting LdyAvalon:
Been lurker here since '04 and have posted a few times. Always come here for accurate information. I'm in Clearwater. Is it safe to say we are not going to see much from this? Looks like there would have to be a major shift. TIA!
Hi Tia, jim in San Leon.
Quoting Drakoen:
98L in the BOC should be classified as a TD as well. The organization of the system has continued to improve since the early morning hours.


I doubt they'll classify it.
Let me be the first to say that every news channel from now till early next week will be talking about the Bonnie and Deepwater collision about to occur. "Breaking News".....Bonnie to disperse oil to....who knows....but the new track sure sucks for that
href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3 shtml/145913.shtml?5-daynl#contents" target="_blank">Link
I think this first advisory is very suspect.

Center at 75.0 W? Don't think so.
Only 50 mph in GOM? Don't think so.
Expected to increase in forward speed from 15 mph? Don't know about that, either.
Quoting reedzone:
Umm 50 mph? that's it? Come on NHC, look at those water temps and also take note the ULL is moving further away. I think TD3 will surprise you guys more then us later today.


They just don't want to scare the crap out of everyone on the gulf coast.
Quoting superweatherman:
they not even update the 98L... not recon to that one...?

This is a special update, Normal update will be 2pm for 98L
635. IKE
Miami....you're not in the cone....

Quoting Jeff9641:


Get your facts straight.. I called it last night along with others and again this morning. It is building to where the best convection and vorticty lies once this is established then a wnw motion will insue.
Max Mayfield made mention that the ridge will prevent it from going north of s fl and the nhc track reinforces those statements. But you never know. Time will tell.
Quoting Waltanater:
When they say "east coast" of FL, they mean just the coast, not inland. Just to clear this up for some who may not know.
I'm not sure that your clearing up of things is correct. I think you're wrong and I am...confused.
I still have no hurricane hunter information.
Quoting AllStar17:
I think this first advisory is very suspect.

Center at 75.0 W? Don't think so.
Only 50 mph in GOM? Don't think so.
Expected to increase in forward speed from 15 mph? Don't know about that, either.
Yep, the cone also seems a little too narrow and south to me.
From the 5 day cone it looks like TD3 will pass right over my house...I wonder how much the track will change in the next few days?! I never count on the 5 day cone being correct.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I doubt they'll classify it.

still has 24-30 hrs to go to do something
StormW,

What do you think about the cone? Do you think they'll be a shift?
Recon enroute.

000
URNT15 KNHC 221511
AF306 02BBA INVEST HDOB 06 20100722
150230 2829N 08818W 3995 07656 0464 -160 //// 059017 018 /// /// 05
150300 2828N 08816W 3997 07652 0463 -160 //// 060018 018 /// /// 05
150330 2827N 08814W 3995 07656 0463 -162 //// 061017 018 /// /// 05
150400 2826N 08811W 3994 07657 0463 -164 -208 064016 017 /// /// 03
150430 2825N 08808W 3995 07656 0463 -165 -214 062015 016 /// /// 03
150500 2824N 08806W 3995 07655 0462 -165 -218 062015 016 /// /// 03
150530 2823N 08803W 3994 07656 0461 -165 -222 059015 015 /// /// 03
150600 2822N 08801W 3995 07653 0461 -165 -225 056015 015 /// /// 03
150630 2822N 08758W 3994 07656 0462 -161 -228 054015 015 /// /// 03
150700 2821N 08755W 3994 07655 0461 -160 -230 051014 015 /// /// 03
150730 2820N 08753W 3995 07652 0461 -160 -232 050015 015 /// /// 03
150800 2819N 08750W 3995 07652 0459 -160 -233 052016 016 /// /// 03
150830 2819N 08747W 3995 07650 0458 -160 -234 055015 016 /// /// 03
150900 2818N 08745W 3994 07653 0458 -160 -235 055014 015 /// /// 03
150930 2817N 08742W 3995 07651 0458 -160 -236 056013 013 /// /// 03
151000 2816N 08740W 3995 07653 0459 -160 -237 059015 015 /// /// 03
151030 2816N 08737W 3995 07652 0459 -160 -238 059015 015 /// /// 03
151100 2815N 08734W 3994 07652 0457 -163 -239 060014 014 /// /// 03
151130 2814N 08732W 3996 07645 0456 -160 -240 057014 014 /// /// 03
151200 2813N 08729W 3992 07652 0455 -162 -241 054014 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

646. 900MB
Quoting reedzone:
Umm 50 mph? that's it? Come on NHC, look at those water temps and also take note the ULL is moving further away. I think TD3 will surprise you guys more then us later today.


Reed- I don't understand the NHC reasoning here! Aside from moderate shear and moderate dry air (very moderate at this point), given the path and SSTs I am not understanding the logic here.
If this ends up near 50kts running into the Gulf, I would expect at least a Cat1.
647. 7544
cone will go north on the next update from the keys to miami
Quoting FLdewey:


Once again Reed I think you should drive down there, rip the director out of his chair and take the place over.
Not a good idea. Taz will report him before he gets out of the driveway.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't find any data from recon..



Are they already there? Don't it take a while ? I don't know so that is why I am asking.
Quoting tropicfreak:


40mph winds have been reported in the Bahamas.
1) Where? 2) By whom? 3) Sustained or gusts?

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I'm under the impression that the Bahamas are not much more than speed bumps.
THIS is SO INSULTING!!!!! I'm reporting you to Admin right now!!!!

We're not SPEED BUMPS!!! We're sand dunes!!!

[much higher than speed bumps]

But SERIOUSLY.....

LOL the highest point in The Bahamas is only a little over 200 feet above sea level, and most islands average about 50 feet. Plus many are very narrow; New Providence is 21 miles long, but only 7 miles wide (and shaped like an eye).

So there really isn't much there to disrupt a storm... a bigger problem is a slow moving storm running out of fuel over one of the Bahama Banks....

74.5 22.0 nice band about to wrap in on the N.W. Quad.
Quoting AllStar17:
I think this first advisory is very suspect.

Center at 75.0 W? Don't think so.
Only 50 mph in GOM? Don't think so.
Expected to increase in forward speed from 15 mph? Don't know about that, either.
The increase in forward speed I agree with. The forecast as far as strength goes I disagree with. I think there will be a hurricane at some point.
i suspect 98L to be red at 2
654. MahFL
The HH should be on site at midday EDT, or 1 hour either side, as I can never work it out with 100 % confidence.
Quoting swlagirl:
From the 5 day cone it looks like TD3 will pass right over my house...I wonder how much the track will change in the next few days?! I never count on the 5 day cone being correct.


Smart thinking, it could change a lot.....
Quoting ssmate:
Not a good idea. Taz will report him before he gets out of the driveway.


LMBOKAO!

Hahahahahahaaaaaaa!
Quoting 7544:
cone will go north on the next update from the keys to miami


may u atleast explain why u feel that way
hope im hungry because I'm eating crow for breakfast. :)
Quoting Clearwater1:
Max Mayfield made mention that the ridge will prevent it from going north of s fl and the nhc track reinforces those statements. But you never know. Time will tell.


I didn't say C FL. I mean north of the track now more like MIA/FLL.
Quoting StadiumEffect:
The center it to the south-west side of the heavy convection. The circulation is pulling in moisture from the north/north-east and attempting to close off the western side, giving it the appearance of a northward component. Don't pay attention to the convection, pay attention the the center itself.


Thank you Stadium.....I believe he is the one that needs to get his facts straight. But then again everyone is allowed to have their own observation.
Quoting bjdsrq:


Jeff9641 is getting exhausting with the self-stroking. Better re-apply the lube before you get a rash. POOF you go!


Agreed. I believe Jeff was call for 4-5 inches of rain and strong winds for Central Fl. Seems pretty difficult to get that much rain and wind when the future Bonnie will be about 275 to the south.
Quoting 7544:
cone will go north on the next update from the keys to miami
Doubt it, just a small shift to the right is what I'm expecting at 5PM, not that far north though.
Quoting ho77yw00d:


good morning to you too :)

Good morning Hollywood. Deerfield Beach here. What are you thinking about this?
Looking atthis loop, it appears there is burst of convection directly over the center.
Quoting FLdewey:


Once again Reed I think you should drive down there, rip the director out of his chair and take the place over.


Doc thinks it is possible...per update "If the upper-level low picks up speed and pulls away from 97L, the storm may be able to intensify at a faster rate. None of the computer models is calling for that to happen, but it is possible. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico at 20%"
Quoting tropicfreak:


They just don't want to scare the crap out of everyone on the gulf coast.

i dont think so. You know people live on that big penisula and island between you and bonnie right? lol The gulf is not always their center of their attention.
Hmmm.... still no update?
668. xcool
f5 f5f5f5f5f5 omg
Quoting MahFL:
The HH should be on site at midday EDT, or 1 hour either side, as I can never work it out with 100 % confidence.

so the 2pm advisory is the more accurate one
Looking at post# 644... One thing standing out to me is the HWRF model and its track... almost spot-on as to its current location.
Quoting whs2012:
CONES NOW POSTED ON NHC SITE!
..

OH MY GOD NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
Quoting chrisdscane:

so the 2pm advisory is the more accurate one
The 5PM will be the most accurate of all.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doubt it, just a small shift to the right is what I'm expecting at 5PM, not that far north though.


Yeah. I'm guessing the TS watch for North of Dade County is in case this thing wants to intensify moderately.
the track and this steering are similar hmmm
OIL due to spin will be a huge problem for LA
Quoting Jeff9641:


Reported. So poof you will go!!!!!

I am now a JEFFCASTER, anything he says I go with. He has been right about two differnt tropical systems. The self stroking is geting annoyng though imo.
COC 22.0 N 74/2 W

convections starting to build around it...

cat three through the keys...

imho
Really? 3 1/2 days time is apparently all there is left of TD3? I mean, that's when it's projected to hit land. And max winds of 50mph? Something seems off, way off. Are they waiting for the models to get a better grip of TD3?
It's so funny how the blog calmed down after the track shifted to TX/LA, lol
681. Jax82
You really have to trust the steering layers. Those who are saying the storm is going to Miami/FLL are way too north with their guess. I say guess because who knows what will happen (look at 98L forming out of nowhere) but looking at the models and steering layers we have to go with what data we have now. Hopefully the storm stays weak will be just a rain maker for south FL, they need it.
Quoting ConchHondros:


Doc thinks it is possible...


Doc doesn't constantly bash the NHC.

Reed always knows better than those clowns... with their fancy pants degrees and shiny satellites and planes. Bunch of amateurs. ;-)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agreed. I believe Jeff was call for 4-5 inches of rain and strong winds for Central Fl. Seems pretty difficult to get that much rain and wind when the future Bonnie will be about 275 to the south.


For one stop lying I said earlier this morning 2 to 4" of rain and 25 to 30mph winds in Tampa. I also said today i feel this is s S FL storm. Never said 4 to 5" of rain. LOL
Even if the cone stays south, Dade and Broward can expect lots and lots of rain - my garden will be happy!
Quoting Seamule1:
COC 22.0 N 74/2 W

convections starting to build around it...

cat three through the keys...

imho


Cat 3?

Completely unrealistic.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 5PM will be the most accurate of all.



ya ik i mean well know for sure were the center is
If TD3 goes towards the Texas coast, wouldn't it bring the oil along with it?!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Doubt it, just a small shift to the right is what I'm expecting at 5PM, not that far north though.


Stop this shift to the right stuff!! That's gonna put it right over my newly purchased house! lol
689. A4Guy
Quoting hydrus:
The increase in forward speed I agree with. The forecast as far as strength goes I disagree with. I think there will be a hurricane at some point.


considering the nhc mets have PHDs and you don't…I'll go with their fcst. Thanks, though. : )
Quoting chrisdscane:



ya ik i mean well know for sure were the center is
We'll have the 18z runs with new data too and so on and so forth.
691. xcool
692. IKE
Quoting whs2012:
It's so funny how the blog calmed down after the track shifted to TX/LA, lol


I just shipped 2 boxes of depressant meds to WU bloggers in and around Miami. Should be arriving about 2 EDST.
Quoting gator23:

I am now a JEFFCASTER, anything he says I go with. He has been right about two differnt tropical systems. The self stroking is geting annoyng though imo.


Right on? He called for Alex to hit Florida and forecasted 4-5 inches of rain and strong winds for Central FL.
Quoting gator23:

I am now a JEFFCASTER, anything he says I go with. He has been right about two differnt tropical systems. The self stroking is geting annoyng though imo.


Sorry buddy I'll tone it down..
Quoting whs2012:
It's so funny how the blog calmed down after the track shifted to TX/LA, lol

no, the Katrina comparisons have been non stop. Tommorow there will non stop Ike or Rita comparisons.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cat 3?

Completely unrealistic.

With those upper level winds? Exactly. But hey, what would this blog be without the drama?
yo miamihuricanes 09 ur in miami right
i have a feeling after recon they'll upgrade to bonnie....
Quoting Seamule1:
COC 22.0 N 74/2 W

convections starting to build around it...

cat three through the keys...

imho


I see the "imho" stands for "in my highly unlikely opinion"
Quoting chrisdscane:
yo miamihuricanes 09 ur in miami right
Yep.
Quoting Jeff9641:


For one stop lying I said earlier this morning 2 to 4" of rain and 25 to 30mph winds in Tampa. I also said today i feel this is s S FL storm. Never said 4 to 5" of rain. LOL


You said you talked with the Melbourne WS (which none of us believed)and they told you to expect 4-5 inches of rain in Central FL. That was your forecast.
Quoting IKE:


I just shipped 2 boxes of depressant meds to WU bloggers in and around Miami. Should be arriving about 2 EDST.


I hope it was Fedex Express overnight or some might be floating in the pool tomorrow.
Quoting chrisdscane:
yo miamihuricanes 09 ur in miami right

the understatment of the day lol commonsense people lol sry i had to call you out on it
Oh yay I'm in the cone.
Intensity Forecasts are not that great...i seldommly see them being right 3 and 4 days out....the best thing to do is to watch and wait...and be ready
98L at 2PM should be given the higher end of the red shading percentage (80%+).
Bonnie will come straight to louisiana. I hope!
man 98L looks really good with 24-30 hrs
still to go i expect this to be classified
Question:

Isn't this a best-case scenario for the 2010 season?

What I mean is, the storm is expected to spend a lot of time over water and only get to TS strength.

Doesn't that churn-up cooler waters and reduce the danger in August and September?

Someone a few weeks ago said each day without a storm is a blessing, but I'm kinda of the belief that a lot of weaker storms are better than a monster in September.

In a "spread-out the ACE throughout the 2010 season" sense.

Does that make any sense? Any thoughts on this?
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Right on? He called for Alex to hit Florida and forecasted 4-5 inches of rain and strong winds for Central FL.


I was going with the GFDL and HWRF models. I was right on the COC replacement though. Also others too were calling for this to go to FL with those models predicting so at one time. i will stick with the GFDL and HWRF as over the years these models have been spot on.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Right on? He called for Alex to hit Florida and forecasted 4-5 inches of rain and strong winds for Central FL.

well no he kept sayig Alex was going to strengthen and he kept saying it would not hit Texas and that it was a Mexico storm, he was right. He nevr said central florida. He said rain in central florida which is reasonable.
Bring on Bonnie, these heat indicies of 105-110 since May have eaten our lunch. I had heat exhaustion this whole week. I work outdoors!! We can use the rain***
Quoting AllStar17:
Looking atthis loop, it appears there is burst of convection directly over the center.
I have been thinking that too, and pointed out this thunderstorm when it popped. The center definitely isn't under the larger blob, but I'm not really convinced that it's quite as far west as 75 either. 74.5-74.8 IMO based on the "yellow" low-level clouds in the NOAA RGB.
Quoting IKE:


I just shipped 2 boxes of depressant meds to WU bloggers in and around Miami. Should be arriving about 2 EDST.


Lol, but they WILL have their share of tropical systems! But for now, be sure those anti-depressants are strong. ;) lol jk
Recon Location

might shrink in size to an Andrew....who knows....may be a small buzz saw....

what do we have here?

a spinning LLC closed...
strong convection building....
anti cyclone aloft...
HOT sst's....
nothing in the path but more of the same for the next 24 hours...

again...cat 3 through the keys....anti-cyclone following it...
pucker up time for northern gulf coast...

imho
Come on Stormchaser2007. anything is possible!
only if You have never met a pissed off cajun or redneck women. anything is possible! just poking at you especially if this thing come to TX/LA


It would seem that the NHC is calling for a northward turn... It is a matter of where it occurs, and probably how strong of a system this is as it approaches the central GOM.
i am not sure why the bahamas issued warnings so far north with the cone so far south, expecting some significant shifts when recon gets there
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep.


wut have city officials said about public transport and the closing of anything
NEXRAD Radar
Miami, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting clwstmchasr:


You said you talked with the Melbourne WS (which none of us believed)and they told you to expect 4-5 inches of rain in Central FL. That was your forecast.


You must be quoting someone else because they said 2 to 3" and that is what i posted. Is there something wrong with the NWS saying to 2 to 3" rain event. Come on Man!! If you don't like my post that's fine but don't fabricate them PLEASE!!!!
723. Chigz
I have been a member of this blog for a few years and this year lot of the new members are talking so much CRAP! Please stop...This blog ought to be a little scientific as well as people giving their opinions based on some facts - rather then PURE WISHCASTING...

Glad to folks like StormW, Levi..and others!
Quoting chrisdscane:


wut have city officials said about public transport and the closing of anything

they said we dont handle public transportation the county does call them.
WSVN will tell you watch them
Quoting gator23:

I am now a JEFFCASTER, anything he says I go with. He has been right about two differnt tropical systems. The self stroking is geting annoyng though imo.


Remember, even a broken clock is right twice a day. You can call the NWS in Melbourne and even they will tell you that.
nice blowup right where center should be at. keep watching
Link
Quoting Hurricanes12:


I actually enjoy that they hype things up, lol.


I miss the hysteria of WSVN up here in Tallahassee.
Quoting chrisdscane:


wut have city officials said about public transport and the closing of anything

Nothing from MDT so far. They'll stop the metro at sustained TS force winds, if I remember correctly.
729. A4Guy
Quoting hydrus:
The increase in forward speed I agree with. The forecast as far as strength goes I disagree with. I think there will be a hurricane at some point.
sorry hydrus…comment was directed to allstar17. Apologies.
Quoting angiest:
Oh yay I'm in the cone.

shouldn;t you be saying, Oh no, i'm in the cone :-(
Quoting Jeff9641:


Sorry buddy I'll tone it down..


Do you still stick by your prediction as to the storm going more north as to what the NHC has, as it pertains to southeast Fla?
weres storm when u need him
<
Quoting Chigz:
I have been a member of this blog for a few years and this year lot of the new members are talking so much CRAP! Please stop...This blog ought to be a little scientific as well as people giving their opinions based on some facts - rather then PURE WISHCASTING...

Glad to folks like StormW, Levi..and others!
**banging table in agreement**
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cat 3?

Completely unrealistic.



He meant 3 more cats will be born in key west before it passes. Plenty of em buggers around, descendants of Hemingway's cats. Their like living landmarks.
Quoting GetReal:


It would seem that the NHC is calling for a northward turn... It is a matter of where it occurs, and probably how strong of a system this is as it approaches the central GOM.


Looks like they have it moving quickly, which is probably a Good Thing given the SSTs in that part of the Gulf.
Quoting TarheelNMiami:

Nothing from MDT so far. They'll stop the metro at sustained TS force winds, if I remember correctly.

they will probably shut it down tonight or provide reduced service tommorow. No one should be going to the beaches or Downtown tommorow.
Quoting A4Guy:


sorry hydrus%u2026comment was directed to allstar17. Apologies.
No problemo .:)
I got something from recon now.
741. 7544
what time does the plane go in
742. xcool
Recon yay
Guess it is a good thing I just stocked up on groceries... Here in my neck of the woods after Ike, all we need is a small gust of wind and we lose power. So if TD3 comes this way... we may be out of lights for a few days. UGH!! and I so love my A/C!
Quoting FLdewey:


Tri-rail is sending all trains to Altoona, PA. The airports are closing at 5pm today. Everyone needs to get below ground now. That thing is a monsta!

i think he was referring to the MetroRail not the Tri-Rail
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Do you still stick by your prediction as to the storm going more north as to what the NHC has, as it pertains to southeast Fla?


I really think MIA/FLL may get this one. Center seems to be building further north. This is why we need recon info. If I'm wrong so be it as this is only a mere blog.
Quoting Abacosurf:

I think it was a replacement cycle. only 5 mph decrease.

I was on Great Guana Cay. It was not weak. 150 mph sustained winds for over 12 hours. 2 plus hour eye passage. Gusts recorded to 221 MPH!!!
Floyd was a kicker. We got cat 2+ winds here in Nassau, 100 miles away.

Hey Abacosurf. Guess u guys are going to get mostly surf from this today...

Quoting jurakantaino:
The only island consider "good size islands are Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas don't make any different to a system, to small.
I would add Jamaica to this list... aka the Greater Antilles.
Some deep convection trying to fire over TD3's center. GOES satellite imagery clouds trying to wrap around the northwest side which is a sign that shear is mitigating.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF CUBA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 22/1430Z
D. 23.0N 76.0W
E. 22/1700Z TO 21/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 23/1500Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. A POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 24/0000Z
Quoting ElConando:


He meant 3 more cats will be born in key west before it passes. Plenty of em buggers around, descendants of Hemingway's cats. Their like living landmarks.

LMFAO!!!! FTW!
I mentioned this yesterday, but will say again.

TD3 (Bonnie) moving WNW over gulf at 16 mph. Winds to the North along the coast prior to landfall will be roughly one category higher than storm intensity rating.

If TD3 (Bonnie) becomes a Cat-1 @ 80 mph wind speed, North eye wall winds will be 96 mph Cat-2. If it has 100 mph Cat-2 sustained winds, North eye wall winds will be 116 mph Cat-3. Fast forward motion tends to make this a stronger storm (although not as long lasting).

Also, keep in mind that the main thrust of the storm surge will be slightly higher than normal along the coast due to the rapid movement of the storm to the WNW. Whatever the category rating... think one category higher with respect to damages at landfall just due to fast forward motion of the storm.

Even if this is projected to be a strong tropical storm... prepare for Cat-1 at landfall just due to fast forward speed.
752. RM706
Quoting GetReal:


It would seem that the NHC is calling for a northward turn... It is a matter of where it occurs, and probably how strong of a system this is as it approaches the central GOM.


/sigh ... Are the oil spill ships moving? New Orleans actively talkin gabout this in the local media?
what time do u guys expect the first few outerbands will reach Sfl ima try to geta round of golf today
WOW, our Local news/weather.. ABC13 just now sent out a blast text saying there was a TD out there. My they are on the ball!
755. Chigz
Quoting Jeff9641:


I really think MIA/FLL may get this one. Center seems to be building further north. This is why we need recon info. If I'm wrong so be it as this is only a mere blog.


Where do you live Jeff? Not Miami by any chance?
Quoting Drakoen:
Some deep convection trying to fire over TD3's center. GOES satellite imagery clouds trying to wrap around the northwest side which is a sign that shear is mitigating.


also just looked at a loop of 98L and you are right, this could be classified today as well, looking impressive
757. 7544
bahama govmt feels this will become a ts thats why its so far north they issue they own warnings
Quoting Drakoen:
Some deep convection trying to fire over TD3's center. GOES satellite imagery clouds trying to wrap around the northwest side which is a sign that shear is mitigating.


Indeed. What Lat/Lon do you see the LLC?
Quoting gator23:

i think he was referring to the MetroRail not the Tri-Rail


I really don't see either affected tomorrow, but it is a government operation so who knows.
man no doubt 98L should be red at the 2 pm update very well organized
Hey El Conando Hemmingways or polydactels are cool cats. have several of them and i live in texas and have friends in the keys that have one of my poly babys and he is huge. not nice to knock the critters because there different. can send pic if you would like!
It sure is not a good thing that the water temp's in the Gulf are in the mid to upper 80's either.
Quoting gator23:

they will probably shut it down tonight or provide reduced service tommorow. No one should be going to the beaches or Downtown tommorow.


Eh depends on its course it if it stays generally on course or a bit to the north maybe. And how strong it gets as well as the wind field.
I still am holding to 90% probability for a hurricane. Too many days over warm water and an upper level low that has already gone ahead of old model forecasts.
i have google earth.. how do i get to the HH info?>
Quoting chrisdscane:
what time do u guys expect the first few outerbands will reach Sfl ima try to geta round of golf today

I bet you'll be fine until about 4-5pm. After that, you'll be wasting balls.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
It sure is not a good thing that the water temp's in the Gulf are in the mid to upper 80's either.

UGH OH noaa say otherwise for south florida
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTENSIFY TONIGHT TO
TROPICAL STORM DRIFT W AT 6 KT AND APPROACH CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND TO S FLORIDA FRI. ELSEWHERE RIDGE ALONG 31N THROUGH
MON.

$$
in a weak tropical storm worst waether is typically not right at the center so we might actually get worst weather in extreme S Fl than right at the center as we will be on the dirty side Ne quadrant.
max winds are max winds. They are measured by the HH's. You don't have to do math upwards. YOu can subtract from the max on the weak side. They will not list a storm as a cat 1 if someone is going to get cat 2 or 3 winds.
I think us up here in Alaska are going to get this one.... (sarcastic tone, but some peoples predictions are as unlikely as this) lol.
773. RM706
Quoting Patrap:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 22/1430Z
D. 23.0N 76.0W
E. 22/1700Z TO 21/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Teal 70 ... is this for TD3? 1PM ET?
Quoting rossclick:
i have google earth.. how do i get to the HH info?>


http://hhrecon.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz
Quoting StormW:


Be doing an update shortly.

Storm, please give some attention to the intensity forecast (as I am sure you will). I am optimistic about the official view on this, but I am not exactly comfortable with it.

Thanks!
776. 7544
moving west nw at 16 seems way slower than that to me

recon will not wait its getting to close so the info will be sent to nhc asap not 3 hours latter stay tuned we still might see bonnie faster than u think
Quoting TexasGulf:
I mentioned this yesterday, but will say again.

TD3 (Bonnie) moving WNW over gulf at 16 mph. Winds to the North along the coast prior to landfall will be roughly one category higher than storm intensity rating.

If TD3 (Bonnie) becomes a Cat-1 @ 80 mph wind speed, North eye wall winds will be 96 mph Cat-2. If it has 100 mph Cat-2 sustained winds, North eye wall winds will be 116 mph Cat-3. Fast forward motion tends to make this a stronger storm (although not as long lasting).

Also, keep in mind that the main thrust of the storm surge will be slightly higher than normal along the coast due to the rapid movement of the storm to the WNW. Whatever the category rating... think one category higher with respect to damages at landfall just due to fast forward motion of the storm.

Even if this is projected to be a strong tropical storm... prepare for Cat-1 at landfall just due to fast forward speed.

Actually this is flawed logic, as the Maximum Sustained winds that the Hurricane Hunters record when flying through these systems already account for the impact of forward velocity. Any physical measurements taken of a tropical cyclone, or any wind, for that matter, will be accurate.. The winds they are recording are within the cyclone, and the cyclone is moving WNW at 16mph already, therefore there is no need to add 16mph to whatever value they record in the vicinity of the system. You see? It's one of those things that once you realize you respond "Ohhh yeahhh, duh!" :D
Quoting whs2012:
I think us up here in Alaska are going to get this one.... (sarcastic tone, but some peoples predictions are as unlikely as this) lol.


for some reason i have u on ignore?
Is the Shaqcane being replace by the Lebroncane?
I'm in Big Pine Key (mile marker 31) and we're under a TS warning now.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

The COC seems to be at 75W in that image.
Quoting goavs4:


http://hhrecon.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz


cool thanks
Weather for Extreme NE Dade. I'll break out a few further south.

Today
Partly sunny with isolated showers. Breezy. Highs in the lower 90s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 15 to 20 mph later in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
» ZIP Code Detail
nt_chancerain
Tonight
Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Northeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
rain
Friday
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds around 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
» ZIP Code Detail
nt_chancerain
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
hi all. caicosrs what was the strongest wind ya had last night?
Live HH Recon Data for Google Earth
Link
NEW BLOG!
Chris,

Why?
Quoting BenBIogger:


Indeed. What Lat/Lon do you see the LLC?


21.9N 74.9W
guys am I crazy or is this thing starting to rap up storms around the center
Bonnie wil be a CAT 1 for sure. No way around that, but she may have messy hair,LOL!
Quoting IKE:


I just shipped 2 boxes of depressant meds to WU bloggers in and around Miami. Should be arriving about 2 EDST.


Patch form will probably be the best for them. oy. Things are sure getting interesting in the blog and in general.
I think the center is to the north of the nhc.
Breaking News..........Bad news for Deepwater Horizon....I promise you will hear this 100 times over the next few days!!!
Doesn't look like Texas isn't going to have fun early next week. It seems like the cone is quite small, so the steering patterns must be straightforward.

any thoughts on that?
Quoting Surfcropper:
I'm in Big Pine Key (mile marker 31) and we're under a TS warning now.

already??
Quoting floridaT:
hi all. caicosrs what was the strongest wind ya had last night?


During the night, the strongest GUST registered by my anemometer was 33 mph
Quoting Chigz:
I have been a member of this blog for a few years and this year lot of the new members are talking so much CRAP! Please stop...This blog ought to be a little scientific as well as people giving their opinions based on some facts - rather then PURE WISHCASTING...

Glad to folks like StormW, Levi..and others!
No doubt. The wish casting is ridiculous on here but you can generally tell who does it. Just add them to you list :)
798. xcool
NEWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW BLOGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Actually this is flawed logic, as the Maximum Sustained winds that the Hurricane Hunters record when flying through these systems already account for the impact of forward velocity. Any physical measurements taken of a tropical cyclone, or any wind, for that matter, will be accurate.. The winds they are recording are within the cyclone, and the cyclone is moving WNW at 16mph already, therefore there is no need to add 16mph to whatever value they record in the vicinity of the system. You see? It's one of those things that once you realize you respond "Ohhh yeahhh, duh!" :D


Ohhh Yeahhh, duh!

Really, thank you for the information. I was thinking of it in terms of circulation wind speed, not that flight level wind recordings would have already measured that. I appreciate your response. Learning.
Does someone has a link to the MJO forecasts? Per San Juan NWS, MJO will become highly unfavorable begining next week.
Quoting 7544:
cone will go north on the next update from the keys to miami
Why do you think that will happen? Your reasoning if you don't mind.
NEW BLOG!!!
We're on a local weather conference call at 1 with NWS Ruskin... They'll give us the straight dope about what to expect here on Florida's west coast.

My anniversary is this Saturday... da missus will be quite upset if our beach plans get rained out!
I have found the NHC is pretty much on target 3 days out on the track of most storms. They have it down to as science as opposed to guess work. If I lived in S Florida and the Keys I'd be making some plans. North Gulf Coast, well, good luck too.
Max Mayfield rocks!
I am suer glad I tested my generator last week...Houston, we have a problem.... Ready for a generator driven bbq
NEW BLOG!!!
GUYS I'M TELLING THE CONE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OOP'S CAPS sorry about that
They are shuting down operations in the gulf with the oil cleanup along with drilling the relief well and killing the old well. Probably a 10 day delay for all operations.
Quoting est1986:
Bonnie will come straight to louisiana. I hope!


Fool. Then you will have oil on the western side of Lake Ponchatrain, up all the bayous and raining down on your house.

At least it keeps the LA oil off of us in FL.
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Guess it is a good thing I just stocked up on groceries... Here in my neck of the woods after Ike, all we need is a small gust of wind and we lose power. So if TD3 comes this way... we may be out of lights for a few days. UGH!! and I so love my A/C!


Nah, HTG, ain't gonna happen. And I know this 'cause my standby generator was finally installed this week guaranteeing that Galveston, Fort Bend and Harris County will not see another major storm until I move out of the house. Thank you very much. It's just one of the services I provide to the public.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


Fool. Then you will have oil on the western side of Lake Ponchatrain, up all the bayous and raining down on your house.

At least it keeps the LA oil off of us in FL.



AMEN~
Thanks Storm. Do you think the COC is a bit farther north than the NHC track? It looks like it is about a half degree north.
Quoting chrisdscane:
what time do u guys expect the first few outerbands will reach Sfl ima try to geta round of golf today
You'll be able to play 36 holes today if you want.
gator where are u from , are u from one of the affected areas that ike, katrina or rita hit.
patttttttt oh wise one , please speak to us , and give us your opinion of how this storm might strengthen and where it may go ,
well just lie i said storm you and i agree on bonnie not reaching hurricane force...i think as bonie pushes further into the gom shw will encounter more shear...you are looking a best TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WINDS 65 MPH AND THAT'S BEING GENEROUS..
THE STORM RIGHT NOW IS SURROUNDED BY A REAL GOOD ENVIROMENT BUT THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED..IF BONNIE ISN'T A TROPICAL STORM BY 11PM TONIGHT SHE WILL NEVER BE ONE...AFTER THAT SHE HAS 30 -40 KNOTS OF SHEAR TO GET THROUGH...THAT SHEAR WUILL RIP HER APART INTO A RAIN MAKER..