WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical depression forming near North Carolina?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:00 PM GMT on June 27, 2006

Satellite and radar data from the past few hours indicate that a tropical depression may be forming about 140 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. This system is moving north to north-northeast at 15-20 mph, and will bring high winds and heavy rain to coastal North Carolina late this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm warnings may be issued for portions of the North Carolina coast early this afternoon, after the Hurricane Hunters have had a chance to check out the system. An airplane is scheduled to arrive at the storm around noon EDT today.

Here's the special advisory put out by NHC at 7:30am EDT:

Special tropical disturbance statement
730 am EDT Tue Jun 27 2006

Satellite and radar information indicate that a small low pressure system could be forming about 140 miles south of Cape Fear North Carolina. This system has the potential to develop into a tropical depression at any time as it moves north to north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph. An Air Force Reserve reconnaisance aircraft will investigate the system later this morning to determine if a closed circulation exists at the surface.

Residents along the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the progress of this system today as tropical storm warnings could be required with little notice. Even if this system does not form into a tropical cyclone... showers and thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds will gradually spread onshore the North Carolina coast today and early tonight.


The Long range radar loop out of Wilmington, NC shows an extensive area of heavy rain off the coast, and some spiral banding starting to form. Wind shear is low, the waters beneath are warm, and conditions appear favorable for a tropical depression to form. The system only has about 6-10 hours over water before it comes ashore, so it is unlikely we will get more than a 45 mph tropical storm. Heavy rain will be the main threat from this system, and regions of coastal North Carolina near and to the right of where the center comes ashore can expect 4-6 inches of rain over the next day. Coastal Virginia and Maryland should see rains of at least 1-3 inches from this system on Wednesday, but the bulk of the rain should stay east of Washington D.C., which has suffered extensive flooding the past few days.


Figure 1. Current radar from North Carolina.

Disturbance east of the Windward Islands
A tropical wave about 800 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding this system is being sheared by strong upper level winds. This system is moving towards an area of higher wind shear, and is not expected to develop.


Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance east of the Windward Islands.

I'll be back with up update early this afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters arrive at the North Carolina storm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
Good morning Dr. Masters and everyone else,

Thanks for the update for I was just getting ready to check out the data myself for the prospect that this disorganized system would be developing overnight into this morning once near the Gulf stream waters since the wind shear was favorable.
Hey Trouper,

I hope you are doing well.:)

I'll be back in a few after I have completed my own analization to give my own best educated GUESS.:)
Amazingly, even with days of that system wandering around down here, we may have gotten an 1/8 of an inch of rain here in Jax. Need rain. Send storms.
Good too see ya Chaser. I look forward to your interpretation of this storm. Have a good one.
Hey everyone,

I wanted to corect a typo (lol) and have to run a few errands but will update my blog regarding this tropical feature when I return in about an hour or so.

In the meantime, I hope all of you have a great day.:)

I'll be back in a few after I have completed my own analyzation to give my own best educated GUESS.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
looks like a depression already to me.......

mornin everybody! :)
I just do not see a depression yet. By the time recon arrives this blob will most likely be on land. Depending how long and how much of it interact with land will tell the tale. Lots of rain.
ok, i am going on the assumption that this storm will be a tropical depression at landfall.....

if that is the case, how can we explain that "most" forecastersgave this storm <30% chance to develop...... yet here it is.....

not sure what my point is, certainly not to gloat or anything of the sort..... just wondering if this year will be like last year.... where we basically started to expect the unexpected (which is what i did with 91l)......

i know there are several people who claim sheer and dust will be a "limiting" factor this year...... guess i have some doubts...

we had a spiral band come ashore here in myrtle beach, got REAL dark..... we currently have showers, bp 29.99 and winds from the south at 10-15mph with gusts to 30
i am more worried about the disturbince close to the windward islands it has more time over water
yes i agree i will give this a 30% of forming into a tropical storm this storm is anganist the odds
African dust is nothing new, it's been occurring on a geologic time scale. I'm thinking it's part of our annual weather cycle but would love to know if it's worse some years and if the models all incorporate the dust factor?

Thanks all,
B
sammy, that "wave" already is being shearded, with the shear expected to increase even more..... which is supposed to limit development..... but then again..... who knows! LOL
15. IKE
Poor folks up in the NE are getting hammered by rain and now this system will only add to it. One thing about it...it's moving so fast it'll hopefully take all of the rain with it and give the northeast a chance to dry out.
I would be surprised if the models DID account for the dust...... having said that, the models are amazing, but need alot of work.... not too mention, an equation and result is totally dependant on the input data being correct. think we need to improve both.....
17. IKE
But thanks Bahama blob for enhancing our rain here in the Florida panhandle. We've had rain here in Defuniak Springs every afternoon the last 4. Now it's back to a 20% chance of rain for the next week with highs in the low to upper 90's. Warming that gulf up. I can only imagine what's ahead.
any guys rememeber that last year a massive cloud of dust came off Africa last year in July....but still cindy, dennis, emily, franklin and gert formed.

they all formed in the caribbean sea, gulf and bay of campeche....except for emily

as i said before conditions in the atlantic could be as hostile as ever but that does not stop a storm from forming in the areas mention above.
All tropical blobs are in violation of the Anti-tropical blob act of 2006. Sanctions will be forthcoming.
20. IKE
In 2005...the 2nd storm formed on June 28th...if this one could make it to a TS...this year will be right on pace with last...

Cindy formed July 3rd, 2005....Dennis July 4th, 2005.

Probably something else will get going soon.
Hey Ike-
Gulf Breeze here. That rain dances around us and misses us every day. By the way I sure do like Defuniak. We camped there last summer but got run back to GB by Dennis!
94L is on floater 2

Thanks for the update Dr Masters, definately a blob with ambition.
23. IKE
gbreezegirl....you went the wrong way for Dennis...you were right in the line of fire.

Sorry you missed out on the rain.
24. IKE
94L must be what the NAM model has in the Caribbean in 84 hours.
Anyone know what makes a "Special Tropical Disturbance" so "Special"?
Hmm...looking at the last few radar pics (actually the link from Wilmington that Dr. M. gave), it does look like it's spinning much better and the radar implies that it might be cleaning up its center of rotation. Looks like fun. I need to look at it from other angles. But this blob currently looks prettier than Alberto ever did.
Quickscat of 91L.

I ended up with 2.22" yesterday:). As of midnight lastnight only ~5,100 acres was actively burning in FL. That's down ~15,000 acres from right before 91L's rains.
28. IKE
They'll probably classify it as TD 2...maybe Beryl...but it's running out of time being caught up in the trough/front. Looks like it's headed for eastern NC.
Good thing Dennis weakened before landfall though. It was 145mph out in the gulf was'nt it?
30. IKE
I had forgotten, but Dennis made it up to 150.
I don't know if she went the wrong way or not Ike. Can you imagine camping during that?? While not terrible in Crestview, where I lived at the time, it took off some shingles and blew my fence down.
The eye sems to be tighting up really quickly, TS Beryl I say :).
33. MZT
TD or not, looks like quite a mess coming to everyone east of a line from Myrtle Beach to Raleigh.
34. IKE
That wouldn't have been pleasant...

I just remember everyone calling it Dennis the Menace.
Question of the Day
What was Hurricane Katrina lowest central pressure? Was it more intense than Hurricane Camille?

Friday's Question: Ana was used in 1979, 1985, 1991, 1997, and 2003. Posted by MichaelSTL

Email me at weather underground with answers or check my blog.
Defintely looking even more organized than early this morning. It is obviously pulling a north wind now in the radar loop. Question is if that is at the surface? Looks to be, so pretty sure it will be called a depression after the recon.
looking at the center, this "blob/ depression wanna be could just skirt the coast, not make landfall..... i this happens, i think we will have beryl on our hands.....

looking at the wilmington radar, this storm appears to be heading northeast..... dont see much of a northward component....

so there you have it..... this storm will not make landfall, and because of the warm water (gulf stream) and low shear, i do believe we will have beryl on our hands by days end! ;)
According to the radial velocity (from Wilmington) it is detecting winds moving away from the radar at over 33 kts (at both .50 and 1.45 elevation angles, though the .50 would be more meaningful) If the center of rotation would ever get close enough, then we'd probably get a couple frames that would lend credence to this having higher winds. When does the hunter plane fly in...and where is that link again?
THATS THE SAME THING A WAS WONDERING...IT MIGHT BE A ALEX 2004 OR OPHELIA 2005....IN TERMS OF TRACK NOT WIND SPEED.
Carryover from the previous entry...my little storm that could..94L. Will be watching carefully...I am saying that it will the next more interesting thing to watch.
On the radar it seems to be moving just east of North, not NE...
Report of a WNW wind from Folly Island, SC.
i think the plane is scheduled for noon eastern.... but will have to check.......
44. IKE
Strong SE winds at the offshore buoys...pressures falling south of the Carolinas. Looks like a TD forming.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 26/1600Z
D. 31.0N 80.5W
E. 26/1700Z TO 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT
the plane will arrive at 12 noon...probably they already left.
47. WSI
HopquickSteve,

You can find the plan for the day here for the aircraft. Reports can be found here.

I also have a lot of links dealing with tropical weather at weathercore.com. Also there is basic tropical forecasting tutorial for those who are new to tropical weather, and the basic ideas used to forecast them.
Looks like we could see Beryl today.
I think we are gonna see a "Tammy-like" scenario this afternoon
my prediciton scale for 91L

Wind sheer 4 of 5
Sea Surface Temps 4 of 5
Overall look 3 of 5
present of LLC ? of 1

13/16 chance of devlopment

my prediciton scale for 93L
Wind sheer -4 of 5
Sea surface temps 5 of 5
Overall look 1 of 5
present of LLC ? of 1

2/16 chnace of development
think you can see a clear "closed circulation" on the wilmington composite radar.....

gonna be close whether it makes landall or not...... may just skirt the coast....
looks like jacksonville,nc or morehead city.... so forget my earlier skirt the coast crap......

but obviously, the further we get up the coast, the more time to develop..... to beryl, or not to beryl.... that is the question! LOL
is there a surface close circulation?: and how can u tell?
I think there is still enough of the high pressure east to bring it inland over eastern NC and possibly up towards the Chesapeake Bay area.
AM91 what happened with Tammy?
Morning all.

91L should be a TD at 11:30.

For those who have not seen.

Find the best imagery, forecast models, wind data, marine data, and much more at StormJunkie.com

Back to work. See ya'll later.

Thanks
SJ
All ST needs is a TD....:)
so us here in southeastern NC will we see and be effected by the wind and rain of this TD/TS or will we see nothing?
thelmores, you need glasses lol, its going to make landfall west of the outer banks, IMHO.
tammy came into florida/georgia i think.
I might have overslept. Is it July 4th yet?
Tammy qickly became a TS off the Florida coast one October morning and quickly made landfall at Cape Canaveral w/ 50 mph winds
Hey Tony... This is Adam from SHBC... (old Drumer) I didn't know you were that big into weather and hurricanes... that really cool to know. i also did some research this morning when i got up and saw on the low trying to form in to something more... well get up with me... see ya later
Another sign of a growing closed surface circulation, report of a west wind from Fripps Inlet, SC.
"is there a surface close circulation?: and how can u tell?"

seems plainly visible on the radar.... not sure what else to say.....

i see it west of charleston, and south of jacksonville, nc.....

seems you could almost make out an "eye" on the composite, but looks like it filled back in....
Where's StormTop at?? lol
any early ideas on the path of this disturbance where it'll make landfall where it'll go from there and who will/won't see rain from this? Sorry for all the questions just trying to make plans here in Fayetteville/Ft. Bragg thats all.
As of June 27th 2005...there have been 25 named storms worldwide and about 5 unnamed tropical systems.

As of June 27th 2006......there has been 27 named systems world wide...about 1 unnamed systems or unclassified systems.

Source:Link
Not a offical prediction, but IMHO I think it will be interacting with land before it has enough time to become a TD. Now if it stalled off the coast for a day or two a TS would not be a problem for this system.

Either way looks like our weather friends in eastern NC are in for a dark and stormy afternoon/night
my blog is updated and for those that missed it last night i wrote an interesting peace on equatorial tropical cyclones in my blog.
thelmores, thanks...i was just wondering how you guys and the NHC know when there is a close circulation...I got alot to learn but i'm coming along.
Rapid Intensification, YO!
SST year to year comparison maps have been updated in my blog.

See ya'll later
SJ
QUIKSCAT which is the most reliable scatterometer shows no LLC
Need to adjust that Wilmington radar to long range to get the big picture.
turtlehurricane...Bingo! Ther isn't one yet.
heres a link thats cool to check out...


Link

see what you think...
I've been looking for a report of a northly wind at the buoys, which would tell me it is closed off at the surface (unless winds are just due to local conditions). Early this morning, all nearby stations were reporting winds pretty much between 120 and 210, but there are no stations close enough to the apparent center.
GulfScotsman,,so you are impress now....?
GulfScotsman...LOL! Not quacking yet.
Looks like a trough based on the surface reports so far with 20-25kts on the NE side of the trough.

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/atl-seusplot.php
84. IKE
BB/TD2/TS...is heading right up the east coast...it's cruising along.
Heck...I hope they just name this blob Beryl and get it over with!
Hmmm...Here is the QUICKSCAT link for 91L taken at 9:32 EDT...closed off? Consider the sampling resolution. It isn't so clear to me it is not closed off.
The Wilminton zoom out loop shows the circulation, but look at the NW Atlantic visible, and you can see shear in the last couple of frames. Look at the moisture plume all the way up the east coast. Impressive!
Get out the water pumps, sand bags and tow trucks, but don't think it will make TS status, just Noah status.
i beleive they will skip td at 12 noon..they are taking too long...with this.....
Looks like a decent BWA south of Panama. Nice convection, and some indication of spin.
91. IKE
Off topic...but that buoy in the central Caribbean...#42058...east winds gusting to 31 knots...is that a normal trade wind strength for that area????
guess we'll have to wait until the plane gets there to settle all the little details..... dot the i's and cross the t's! LOL
I even see two spots of violet and black
So NHC, how much longer, and what's the track?
T-number

27/1145 UTC 32.5N 77.9W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
i lost mines.....
i dont kno...i'm acessing mines from RSS feeds....but cant get them from the site itself

NB:rss feeds are like bookmarks but they are live.
102. IKE
That BB is looking more impressive each frame.

What is that in the western Caribbean edging into the gulf??
they aren't gonna write an advisory till the Reconnisance airplane arrives at the center at 12, i think
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY... AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. RESIDENTS ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA
AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
106. IKE
Almost looks like a spin down there in the Yucatan channel.
107. IKE
So its' got 7 hours til it hits...ugh...better not rapidly intensify.
NEWSFLASH:::::::::

I know the big boys haven't confirmed or denied formation, but I am.

We now have TROPICAL STORM BERYL AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE PUT UP AROUND NOON. BERYL should graze the outer banks tonight. Cape Hatteras should have some winds gusting over 60 MPH.
109. IKE
Wrong again ST...it made it!
111. IKE
I don't think that Caribbean blob is headed for the PAC...buoys out there aren't low...winds are all east 15-20. Pressures have come up down there...maybe a high building in...looks to be heading NW.
114. IKE
Beryl is getting it's act together...that last updated frame...a big blowup.
115. IKE
Headed right for eastern NC...better bring in the flying objects in the yard...
Satellite photo continues to suggest development.
The visible is showing the interaction with the trough. See how it is beginning to push everything to the East?
The surface reports, however still do not indicate a closed circulation and the pressures remain fairly high.
Afternoon all.

Looks like some of the cold cloud tops died off in the las frame, but I still think we atleast have a TD.

Anywho, back to work, but please stop by StormJunkie.com to find all of the models, imagery, marine data, and much more. Free site. No ads. Best weather data on the web.

See ya'll later.
SJ
well, if the nhc can't call the "blob" a tropical depression, I damn sure can! LOL

the only question left for me, is will we have a named storm?
I wonder why the NHC is so hesitant to classify this thing?
Maybe if they don't say anything it wont happen. Not a good message to send.
The surface reports still suggest a trough although the most recent satellite photos suggest a TD. The pressures also remain fairly high in the area based on the surface reports. I think they are waiting for the the recon plane to reach the area.
125. IKE
Looks like it crosses Belize and heads west.......
Hey Y'all, Cool website SJ, Thanks. Does anyone know if the weakening of the La Nina has anything to do with all the shear down south...and if so how long do you think it will last???
What time will the recon get there?
Suppose to be there at noon et.
What direction is the "Belize blob" moving???
they are aleady there...the have winds now at Flight level of 33knots and a pressure of 1015 they are located 30.317N 78.700W
I wonder why the NHC is so hesitant to classify this thing?

Probably because ST is threatening the NHC with bodily harm if they do (so he'll be right) LOL :)
the 33knots puts it at depression strength right???
135. IKE
Belize has NNW winds..pressure 29.88...hmm...
weather456, where do you get that info at?
137. IKE
ST?!?!??!?!??!?!??!!
33 kt-flight level is prob. about 25 kt at the surface=TD
Gulfscottsman,

Right now I'd say it's borderline distubance/depression. It clearly has a new, much better mid level circulation, which is why we are seeing all this turning in the clouds. It is trying to develope a surface circulation, which hasent happened as of 1509z.
no thats at flight level.....and they are not at the center yet...that would be about 15 knots at the surface
141. IKE
Your blog keeps kicking me out when I post Dr. M
Where is ST to give us his excuse of why he was wrong?

He'll probably be back in a week or 2. Just like when he was wrong LAST time.
I hope you kno how to read it....link
I beleive even though the circulation crosses itself, that is different that a "closed circulation". Am I correct?
145. WSI
"Where is ST to give us his excuse of why he was wrong?"

Well, not defending anyone, but it hasn't been classified yet. They have to find a closed circulation first.
pressure now at 1017 with flight winds of 30knots and gust at 39 knots..located 30.312 77.800
im updating recon observations on my blog, in the comment section
Gulf, I will put my S. Panama blog up against the Belize Blob...LOL

Look

Also, the S.Panama blog seems to have a bit of spin in the IR loop


Still not much turning at the surface. This thing is going to be onshore soon.
TD or not, riptides are already ferocious on the lower NC beaches. Rescuers saved 40 people last weekend, acc. to press reports.
151. WSI
I am still skeptical of this thing forming into a depression. We'll see though. Not a lot of time left for it to do its thing, unless it decides to take a turn.
if it doesnt develop it would be bitter sweet.....sweet beacuse no one wants a storm hit dem but bitter beacuse stormtop will be gloating at us for along time to come....
I agree with WSI in the aspect that its not a TD and may not become one. I have seen no LLC yet.
Noon observations still show no surface circulation and pressures remain fairly high.
Models are all over the place on 91L...Look at the UK model...sure doesn't look like a TS to me..but what do I know?
morning ya'll...

looks like if good 'ol south FL gets some luck...we might see a storm 'e brewin... ye haw..



full credit toLink
Try this link for the surface observations
159. WSI
People can we please drop the issues with ST? Its one thing to debate him when he is in here, but we don't need him brought up every other post, especially when he hasn't been here in over 24 hrs.

I would like to experience one or two more hurricanes before I move to Colorado.
whirlwind, thats not good luck, thats bad luck.
Just checkin in.

It looks as if the blob is right in between all of the bouys. Suprissing that there is no real pressure drop to speak of. Don't really know what to make of this thing. I'll check in later.

For those who have not seen please stop by StormJunkie.com. Models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

SJ
well..it doesnt look like much...just to get the adrenaline up again.

anyway, check that page out its pretty good
pressure now at 1016.... 23knot winds with 39knots gust at flight level.....16.304N 30.326W

i beleive the winds are ready calculated

that was 1630UTC
sorry that was suppose to be

30.326N 77.300W
Go to Hurricane Warning


Its better than all the other weather sites. I mean all of them. Even ones that are posted once an hour here.
FlowCool, I bet you can't move fast enough. I left east-central FL for NC (north central NC, that is) almosts 7 months ago. No desire to experience any more hurricanes.

Hoping for a calm October around St. Lucia... lol
TWC seems to think this will become a tropical storm. hmm wonder how they can be so sure.
RE TWC - Hype is more important than reality.
sorry about being impatient but I gotta know is it a TD yet? Has the recon found anything good yet?
171. IKE
Whatever it is...it's fixing to hit the coast soon...
now at 1015..winds are 29knots sustain 30.335N and 77000W
16474 UTC
But Turtle

Is it even better than the one that is posted here every twenty minutes. Oh, Just checkin in.

ShamelessHuckstering.com
I don't think it is a TD. Look at Diamond Shoals - pressure has remained fairly steady all day.
and you multiply 29 knots by 1.5 to get mph right?
29 knots is surface winds
1 knots = 1.15077945 mph
I agree with the guys who are not seeing anything developing. It appears what we have now is just a disturbance with some rotation caught up in the southerly flow ahead of a big trough over the US. As of yet there is no evidence of any north wind on the west side of the disturbance, the pressures in the area are quite high, and the wind data in the area is all under 30 mph. There is work to do just to make TD status and time is short.
180. IKE
Lowest pressure at any of those Carolina buoys that I could find is 29.96...
181. WSI
"There is work to do just to make TD status and time is short."

I agree. If its going to do something, it better do it quick.
Bastardi was just hyping it up on Dayside on the foxnews channel. He seems to think it will be a TS
183. WSI
The wind speeds are irrelevant if the closed circulation is not there.
have a nasty line of storms getting ready to move through myrtle beach.....


time is short for this storm..... moving at a pretty good clip towards the nc coast......

was the last word from the nhc at 7:30am?
located 30.344 76.100....surface winds are 37knots with a pressure of 1016 at flight level.

17084UTC
This disturbance should head mostly due northward across eastern NC and then into Virginia based on the upper air winds.
sorry...flight level winds are 37knots.
Hype vs. Science..lets see which one wins. No LLC, winds are meager, and pressures are pretty high - vs. TWC and other media outlets wanting this to be a story.

Votes anyone?
where is the 'center' of rotation on this thing? lat and long?
Go 93/94L and S. Panama blog! LOL
192. IKE
They better classify it soon...it's moving on shore according to the Wilmington radar...outer bands of rain are.
the weather channel uses tropical cyclones as a means of getting attention......when ever storm treatened other countries...only the NHC gives equal amount of attention.

with Hurricane Emily....Hurricane emily got less attention from TWC than hurricane dennis even though it was more intense.....but it never threatened the us.
The cmc has a storm forming in the carib 6 or 7 days out.
I would put a link but i dont know how.
based on the 1130 am edt outlook from the NWS, if the hurricane hunters find a closed cirulation at the surface they will classify it a TD or TS.
Hello all. In Greenville NC it's been much "drier" than yesterday. I know the blob is a comin...

Spotted something unusual around 1136 EST...

the SUN!

Wake up 006. You're right there!
i think if they dont find anything on this flight they wont ever classify this as a TD. And based on what info is coming in here, they wont find anything.
Still no surface circulation over the ocean and pressures remain fairly high. Looks like it still is just a disturbance along a surface trough.

Surface Plot
200. MahFL
On the radar it looks to have a nice circular eye now..........
Floodzone, it's starting to rain steady where I am in Greenville.
we just ran an analysis here, max wind 44 kt, no surface circulation yet... recon circling back now.
you can't access the NWS's east carlonia portion of the its map on the home page. says 'too many connections' when you pull it up. Kind of funny. I guess alot of people are watching this thing. It certainly isn't going to sneak up on us!!
im going back to work.. have a great afternoon everybody. I doubt this thing is going to make TD before it hits Carolina.
Haha, so another "unnamed tropical storm"? lol
Thanks Turtle for the inside info:)
Thanks Turtle!!!
Ain' It Grand to Have A Man On The Inside!!
Can anyone say carrion and vultures?
well turtle..... looks this will go down as a tropical disturbance.......

looked somewhat promising this morning, but due to a lack of llc and a closed circ, looks like our storm is about done..... with exception of rain! ;)
we really need an alternative hurricane center like the rest tropical cyclone basins around the world....because depending on one center has it disadvantages.
l the "special" weather statement post at nhc at 7:30 this morning is gone...... what will it be replaced with?

our storm is not "special" anymore! LOL
Turtle...going to be an interesting season with your inside perpsective. Just don't go and become one of ST's "sources" now:)
Yeah I noticed that too...wonder what that means...
215. IKE
Guess that blob suffered from TD dysfunction.
"There are no tropical cyclones at this time."

seems accurate to me! LOL
Carcanes...I'm just north of G-Vegas so I guess it'll be here in a couple of minutes.

BTW, those CANES were awesome, baby!!!
It is worth noting that the buoys in the area of the disturbance are reporting water temps in the 79-80F range, not exactly the temp this disturbance needs for a last minute burst.
Could ask RUSH for some little blue pills to help get it going.
Floodzone, yes they were!!! Loved watching them this year..Been a fan a long time..It kinda goes along with the discussion...lol
It been a while since i came to this blog, but I'll put my 2cents in(and with tropical systems this is more like 200 from most people). This system is extremly borderline and operationally should NOT be classified. Three reasons for this
1) Its probably not a storm
2) Even if it appears it is, it makes NO difference to the coastal areas if warnings are issued or not because no time for action and the people are already ready for gusty winds and rain. On the contrary warnings might cause people to do things that aren't prudent when the storm is right there and so could cost lives.
3) At the end of the year it can be revisited with deeper analysis and perhaps given a designation then for completeness.

Note isn't is funny how upon further review they upgrade sometimes, but only once have the destormed a system. A few years ago there were 2 that should have been destormed and one last year.
THERES the heavy rain, canesfan.

I was jumping up and down throughout the entire 3rd period of Gm 7. Guess Canes CAN be liked in NC (unless you're named Hazel or Bertha or Fran or Dennis or Floyd or Isabel...) lol.
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 30.5N-35W BETWEEN
75.5W-78.5W AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH
CAROLINA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
looks to me, if there is a center of circulation, it will be coming ashore near morehead city in the next hour or two......
Just found this on the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center page:

"A plane is investigating the area of low pressure along the South Carolina coast and has found winds of between 45 and 50 knots at flight level along with a circulation. This sytem could be named shortly. The next name on the list is Beryl. "
Does anyone know where I could find a free version of Internet Explorer? Is it something that even would be free?

My version just started spazzing out about 2 days ago... I'm NOT technologically adept.
Yeah me too Floodzone..I went to game 5..Had a chance to see them win there, but I guess it was meant to be..I'll take it anyway it happens though...I went to the parade they had afterwards, got a chance to shake all the players hands and stuff. It was great.
Ignore AccuCrap. Thay are just trying to increase their ratings and have people sign up for their $250 a year subscriptions - by the way, that is 25 years of Wunderground's membership.
flood do a search in browser for IE download and yes it is free
Umm internet explorer is free. But so is Firefox. Internet explorer is a good way to catch some malware if you don't know how to set your settings. Firefox is a little more dummy proof, and safer, for the time being. But I'm not going to start an IE vs. FF war...
235. IKE
My membership was only $5.00...was yours ten???
236. WSI
floodzonenc , look at Mozilla Firefox. Great browser.
238. WSI
Last year, Accuweather attacked and tried to show contradictions at the NHC just to try and gather support for the ridiculous NWS act they were trying to pass.
Floodzone: might also try Firefox for a browser. It is also free and quicker than IE. You can have both on your computer and chose between the two. Also do a google search to find it.

Cheers
I think they raised it to $10; when did you sign up?
Here's the latest vortex msg. It is for this storm as Alberto was not at 29N 83W. I guess this is where Accuweather got thier info.

000
URNT12 KNHC 131637
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/16:17:00Z
B. 29 deg 54 min N
083 deg 42 min W
C. 850 mb 1400 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 249 deg 045 kt
G. 174 deg 064 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 18 C/ 1489 m
J. 18 C/ 1488 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.01 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0601A ALBERTO OB 27
MAX FL WIND 51 KT S QUAD 14:59:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 164 / 13NM
UNABLE TO DETERMINE SFC CENTER DUE TO UNDERCAST
NVM, I'm an idiot. It says Alberto right at the bottem.
The latest recon data says 26 kt flight level winds; the latest vortex was from Alberto.
question.....does this storm 91L have to have a closed criculation to be named?
Um, Myles, those coordinates are in the northeast gulf exactly where Alberto was, and the date is June 13th, and the pressure is 998 mb.
The archive blog postings are back--sorry for the techincal snafu.

Doppler radar winds from the Morehead City radar show a pronounced rotation, but wind speeds of only 30 knots at the elevation of the radar beam. The center should make landfall by 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters
damn....$10.00 .....gotta get another job....
bye...
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 271829
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH
LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$




I noticed Hawkeye. I read the lat/lon on the map wrong. I was looking at 77W, not 83, which is near the distubance. I had just taken a quick glance, when I looked it over again I slapped myself in the forehead. LOL
Tropical Disturbance Statment:

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION... AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH
LITTLE NOTICE. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
253. WSI
"does this storm 91L have to have a closed criculation to be named"

Yes it does. If you have any questions about tropical storm naming and structure, check out the basic tutorial that turtlehurricane and I put together. His site has the structure information, my site has the basics on forecasting.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH.

They are not saying that it could become a depression; they say that it could become a tropical storm.
256. WSI
From their site (accuweather)...

"A plane is investigating the area of low pressure along the South Carolina coast and has found winds of between 45 and 50 knots at flight level along with a circulation. This sytem could be named shortly. The next name on the list is Beryl."

WINDS MEAN NOTHING WITHOUT A CLOSED CIRCULATION! They even say they found a circulation. Oops.
Yeah b/c it already has tropical storm-force winds with it.
so now the NHC seems to suggest it could head up the coast..hmmm
my blog is up guys on 91L....
261. WSI
"I was being sarcastic about AccuWeather"

I know. I wanted to really say what they had to hyp.. I mean say. :)
262. WSI
Should say..

I wanted to *see*.....
NRL says 40 kts. Link
I still don't see any northerly winds at any reporting stations anywhere...based on the Wilmington composite radar loop at most it is just pulling down a narrow band of north winds, and apparently not much at the surface. Winds on the west side are not impressive, based on observations at all stations. I am surprised this thing is not stronger based on the radar and satellite loops, but the measured observations at the ground stations and buoys don't lie...

txweather may be right that the NHC wouldn't put up a warning this late unless the situation was very serious, as it might do more harm than good, especially if the winds on the stronger east side stay mostly offshore. Flooding could be a much larger problem than winds with this TD/disturbance (whatever). Flood watches are already up, so that base is covered.
Here's a recent special marine warning from Wilmington NWS:
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

AMZ158-170-271930-
/O.CON.KMHX.MA.W.0105.000000T0000Z-060627T1930Z/
217 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR WATERS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM...

AT 214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS OVER 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG TEN FATHOM...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. BOAT HANDLING BECOMES DIFFICULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS...STEEP WAVES...AND HEAVY RAIN. BOATERS ARE VULNERABLE TO LIGHTNING STRIKES. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. MOVE TO PROTECTED WATERS. AVOID HEADING INTO THE STORM WHILE SEEKING SHELTER.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON DANGEROUS MARINE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3405 7697 3407 7675 3465 7680 3457 7714


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SATELLITE AND RADAR INFORMATION CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SMALL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR IT TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION
EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 30.5N-35W BETWEEN
75.5W-78.5W AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS IN NORTH
CAROLINA. EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE
THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWER
OR CONVECTION ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 15N OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. A DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
OVER THAT AREA.
check out the 3rd paragraph. looks like we will soon have something to talk about.

Also. they don't mention anything about an unfavorable enviornment.
268. WSI
"Also. they don't mention anything about an unfavorable enviornment."


Well if it gets onshore, game over.
man, inaccu-weather is out to lunch....

i agree with the good dr., onland by 4pm.... and if there is no depression now, wouldnt think they will upgrade it within the next hour, before landfall....

appears they do have a doppler indicated tornado near morehead city......
WSI.. im not talking about 91L
wsi, it has a small closed circulation, they decided not to declare it though.
I just looked at the Wilmington Radar loop and cant believe that we dont have some kind recognition of an organized storm. It clearly shows rotation of convection and i have seen much worse areas classified depressions. Not that this matters much in the grand scheme of things but it is quite impressive on radar for not being a storm. I do know that the NHC has used radar to classify storms and to upgrade storms. So we have about another 2 hours or so before this is coming on shore............
273. WSI
"WSI.. im not talking about 91L"

My mistake.
looking at radar, I would have to concur, this system has run out of room to develop. No obvious circulation and what looks most likely to turn into one is almost onshore.
276. WSI
"wsi, it has a small closed circulation, they decided not to declare it though."

Their statement says otherwise turtle..

"WHILE THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION..."

You have the inside track though. ;)

I agree, I cant see how this isnt a depression at LEAST.
You can cleaarly see the spiral banding and a small eyewall like feature.
It may already be a storm; NRL often upgrades them before NHC does. Link

Notice the line above the image: 20060627.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.91LINVEST.40kts-1011mb-341N-769W.100pc.jpg
heh that is what happened to Jelawat yesterday it was at tropical storm strength but the Japan Meteoroligal Agency had to name the storm not the NRL.
TPA, small eyewall like feature?? Where? Are you sure you're not looking in the west Pacific?
i agree fsu...... at the least, we should have called it a tropical depression.....

i agree no tropical storm..... but this storm certainly fits "my definition" of tropical depression, particularly if you include turtle's information that there IS a closed circulation, all be it a SMALL one.....

oh well, strong tropical disturbance, weak depression..... guess there is little difference.....

i would like to know the nhc's explanation for at least not calling this a depression.......
Pre Beryl is mow making landfall, so it seems.
oh my such misspelling..

*meteorological
285. WSI
"i would like to know the nhc's explanation for at least not calling this a depression......."

Their public reasoning in the statement was the lack of circulation.

Now if there were a small circulation, and they haven't publicly classified it, who knows.
tpacat5, look at the graphic dr masters provided.
you cn see it just starting to come ashore, right in the middle of the swirl
000
WONT41 KNHC 271829
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2006

RECENT INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATES THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 35 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON ITS EAST SIDE... THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION..
. AND IS THEREFORE NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. RESIDENTS IN COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...
AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED WITH
LITTLE NOTICE.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT FORM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... IT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
IT MAY HAVE 40 KT. WINDS BUT IT DOESNT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION!!!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif...look, it is now suggesting development in 12-24 hrs. anywheree between NC and New England! I guess I better make sure I have nothing out that can blow away
This thing is strengthening, building a ring of thunderstorms right around the center.

I say its at least a 55 mph storm. but thats just me.
TPA, OK. Much clearer on wunderground's radar. (I was using nws). That's quit planely a center of circulation and does even look a bit like a tropical storm as far as radar presentation goes.
it clearly has a center of circulation you see it cat5?
Why doesnt the NHC?
Link? Mabye it has now developed a closed circulation
According to the Morehead City radar, it's unmistakable there is a circulation, and a fairly good-looking one, about to come onshore.
When it reverses course and skirts around the tip of the keys I am betting it strenghens in the gulf and hits New Orleans as a cat 5 next Friday or possibly Saturday in the early morning hours.
If Beryl forms today, then the 2006 "B" storm will have formed 1 day early than 2005's "B" storm Bret.
I even see spiral banding on all sides of the storm, particularly the north and the south sides.
The NHC may not be upgrading it because it will shortly make landfall and disintegrate; if it has/had a closed circulation, it may be upgraded post-season.
hmm this didn't post last time.
For those that have a subsciption to wunderground, pull up the north carolina radar and animate the last 40 frames, 1.5x zoom. There is quite clearly a closed surface circulation zooming north at quite a clip, it hsould be onshore quite soon.
ok after looking at that I'm convinced the NHC needsa to immediatly upgrade this instead of saying that it should have been Beryl post-season
301. IKE
It's moving on shore...the Bahama blob has run out of time it looks........
Dr M Has New Post Up!
who knows IKE it may reemerge into the Atlantic tonight
guess this is one of those storms that "sit on the fence"......

landfall is iminent for "whatever you want to call it!" LOL