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Tropical Depression Five struggling

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:13 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

Tropical Depression Five is in serious decline, thanks to an unexpected increase of wind shear to about 20 knots this afternoon. Long range radar out of the Florida Panhandle shows a fair amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but little organization into low-level rain bands. TD 5 has brought up to two inches of rain to the New Orleans region. The Hurricane Hunters have just left TD 5, and they found no well-defined surface circulation, a pressure that had risen since this morning's flight, and top winds of just 30 mph. It is questionable whether TD 5 really was a tropical depression for much of the day. Recent satellite images suggest that the center of the storm has relocated near some of the heavier thunderstorms, about 60 miles southeast of the Alabama/Mississippi border. If this new center does indeed become stable, TD 5 will move ashore in the warning area tonight or early Thursday morning, before the depression can develop into a tropical storm. TD 5 is still capable of dropping heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches along its path, however, since the storm is expected to slow down after landfall.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of TD Five from the Florida Panhandle radar.

93L
The tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days has suffered a setback today, as dry air driven into the core of the storm by strong upper-level winds disrupted the circulation. The disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. BFG308
Quoting DestinJeff:
Uh oh ... its blogger numbers time. This always leads to rationale discussion.


Better than two other recurring topics:

GW or JustFreakingVexatious
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


2001 had 9 hurricanes in September alone with 10 storms total that month.
Ready for some truly bizarre thinking this morning......I dont think Ive had enough coffee yet,,,,but about the possibility weather modification experiments and HARP have had something to do with weather patterns this season.......don laugh too loud please..
G'Morning all. Have a question. Does anyone know the different ways that WU weather stations might disappear? It seems odd the both of the only 2 stations right by me went away this week. One gone Monday; the other gone today. I may have to invest in more than just a cheap rain guage. TIA.

BTW. The now closest station to me (N.Pinellas in Tampa Bay area) shows 66.34" ytd.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
then if you couldn't care less why are you flapping your mouth


Dang keep! Why you illin this morning? Take a chill pill homes..
Quoting Jeff9641:


2001 had 9 hurricanes in September alone with 10 storms total that month.

and according to my math 10 in sept plus 3 we already had is a grand total of 13 you pointed that out very good
Somebody has been listening to Jesse Ventura WAY too much.
ROTFLMAO!!

Quoting DestinJeff:
Uh oh ... its blogger numbers time. This always leads to rationale discussion.
Quoting msgambler:
Somebody has been listening to Jesse Ventura WAY too much.
Dont forget Coast to Coast AM,,,,at 3 in the morning!!lol
1510. BDAwx


0.9' storm surge from TD5's remnants?
Quoting FLdewey:
The only indicator pointing to dangerous times ahead is you.


Not true actually. Currently there are 3 ULL's dominating the Atlantic and Caribbean, next week there will be one left and in two weeks the forecast is for them all to be gone with two dominating areas of High Pressure taking over the Atlantic and Caribbean. Now take a look at Africa and see the two or three low pressures currently coming across Africa one after the other, they should arrive just about the time the ULL's disappear. This is only a forecast and things could change but right now it looks like it could get pretty busy in a week or two.
Not much happening out there....



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
1514. FLdewey
Quoting 69Viking:


... This is only a forecast and things could change but right now it looks like it could get pretty busy in a week or two.

4 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
3 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
2 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
1 week ago we were doomed in a week or two.

Today guess what... ;-)
Quoting beeleeva:
Dont forget Coast to Coast AM,,,,at 3 in the morning!!lol
Ohh, another reliable source. I would rather watch paint dry.
Quoting msgambler:
Ohh, another reliable source. I would rather watch paint dry.

Who in their right mind, is listening to a radio at 3 am??
Good morning. I am enjoying a small rain shower here south of Houston. My plants are happier.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Not much happening out there....



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
yeah still 15 weeks to go so we better get one a week from now till end of nov to make 18
Quoting Orcasystems:

Who in their right mind, is listening to a radio at 3 am??
Not me, not Coast to Coast anyway, I'm watching paint dry. Good Morning Orca
1520. BFG308
Quoting beeleeva:
Ready for some truly bizarre thinking this morning......I dont think Ive had enough coffee yet,,,,but about the possibility weather modification experiments and HARP have had something to do with weather patterns this season.......don laugh too loud please..


Actually I had this thought yesterday. I wondered if the Moscow drought/fires had anything to do with when they were going to try to make storms dump the snow before reaching the city. I know nothing about if the plan actually happened or Russian geography and climate, so I didn't make any assumptions.

Anyone know more about that?
1521. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
08/12/2010 12:49PM 4,322 invest_DEACTIVATE_al932010.ren


RIP 93L. Bastardi thought that one would be a named storm.


Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
I hate watching people on this blog and they either downcast or wishcast all season just because they care about their predicted numbers! WHO cares!

Most come here for information and education and could care less about your predictions.


Apparently all of the experts do because they all give out seasonal #'s.
1522. FLdewey
Anybody on their roof yet?

i was right about that tropical wave...

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE
LESSER ANTILLES ARE DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 MPH.

That is a good show. And the topics are so controversial, that 3am is really appropriate. There are a lot of followers and listeners.

Quoting Orcasystems:

Who in their right mind, is listening to a radio at 3 am??
1525. BDAwx
here's a novel concept - getting multiple storms per week, that have overlapping lifespans so multiple storms at the same time :O
1526. whs2012
Guys, the season is going to pick up, it still is going to be a average, below-average season though...and I don't think anyone will argue with that seeing that we are in mid-August.
Morning all.
High SSTs
Low Shear
Low SAL
Mid August
Nuf Said.
Looks like LA coastline is getting slammed by TD5 this a.m. Hopefully this will clean up some oil.
GOMWVLoop
Quoting FLdewey:

4 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
3 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
2 weeks ago we were doomed in a week or two.
1 week ago we were doomed in a week or two.

Today guess what... ;-)


I guess now I know the true definition of downcaster. I'm basing my opinion on forecast predictions. I said things could change but I also said according to the forecast the ULL's that have suppressed tropical activity so far this season are going to go away in a couple weeks and High pressure and light winds will dominate the tropics. Combine that with the CV season and the approaching Peak of Hurricane season and there's a good chance it will be busy in a couple of weeks. Waves coming off Africa won't have ULL's to suppress them so chances improve greatly for them to develop. You have your opinion and I have mine, we'll see what happens in a couple of weeks I guess.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah still 15 weeks to go so we better get one a week from now till end of nov to make 18


I am really hoping that nothing starts... zippo...ziltch... our southern neighbours have enough problems right now.

Not to mention, I don't want any oil on the beaches in Cuba... it will ruin my winter vacation :)
Where's DestinJeff? He's got the chart.
Quoting Goldenblack:
That is a good show. And the topics are so controversial, that 3am is really appropriate. There are a lot of followers and listeners.



In all due respect... anyone listening to radio at 3 am... is a follower.
Quoting JRnOldsmar:
G'Morning all. Have a question. Does anyone know the different ways that WU weather stations might disappear? It seems odd the both of the only 2 stations right by me went away this week. One gone Monday; the other gone today. I may have to invest in more than just a cheap rain guage. TIA.

BTW. The now closest station to me (N.Pinellas in Tampa Bay area) shows 66.34" ytd.

Have you noticed any black helicopters circling your house lately?
Quoting Goldenblack:
That is a good show. And the topics are so controversial, that 3am is really appropriate. There are a lot of followers and listeners.

The followers and listeners are nut jobs and crazies. I had the chance to listen to show on a trip home one night and it was about the most stupid thing I have ever heard.
Quoting Chicklit:
Morning all.
High SSTs
Low Shear
Low SAL
Mid August
Nuf Said.
Looks like LA coastline is getting slammed by TD5 this a.m. Hopefully this will clean up some oil.
GOMWVLoop


And by looking at the models its not going to get any better.
Quoting msgambler:
Not me, not Coast to Coast anyway, I'm watching paint dry. Good Morning Orca

Watching paint dry... sounds about the same as business has been this month.
1536. Thaale
Quoting IKE:
Apparently all of the experts do because they all give out seasonal #'s.

True, IKE, though to be fair I think you can justify NOAA's and CSU's predictions in that they're intended to allow the public the prepare. They don't exist just to allow NOAA or Klotzbach a chance to crow about being right. Whereas blog predictions by amateurs, which won't be used by anyone to guide behavior, don't have much raison d'etre other than that.

Still, there's no harm in it, and I agree if people want to post their own estimates there's no reason not to.
LOL, well, I respect that opinion, and I will not get any deeper into it. I don't listen to it directly, but rather some taped sessions.....but I can tell you people may listen to follow, but it is refreshing to hear opinions that are not mainstream. We are all following in some respect.

Quoting Orcasystems:


In all due respect... anyone listening to radio at 3 am... is a follower.
Quoting Chicklit:
Morning all.
High SSTs
Low Shear
Low SAL
GOMWVLoop

ULLs
No change
All the time! I always go and hide in the woods, so they don't spot me!

Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Have you noticed any black helicopters circling your house lately?
1540. BDAwx
Oh by the way, i dont know if anyone else noticed but, the operational GFS has now caught onto what the ensemble has been showing as Levi pointed out these past few days:
1541. FLdewey
LMAO... I'm not a downcaster... I don't forecast at all. Just because I have access to the internet and have read about tropical systems doesn't mean I try and act like I can forecast them. I leave that to the professionals... like the old Coastie. ;-)

The "it's coming in two weeks" thing is just old... we get it... it's coming.

Hit me with the graph Jeff.
Here is a LINK to the Google Earth image of the Russian HARP equivalent in Siberia.
Quoting Orcasystems:


In all due respect... anyone listening to radio at 3 am... is a follower.
Hey now, I listen to radio at 3am but I drive for a living.
1544. FLdewey
Quoting msgambler:
The followers and listeners are nut jobs and crazies. I had the chance to listen to show on a trip home one night and it was about the most stupid thing I have ever heard.

Glenn Beck type crazies or just normal crazies?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am really hoping that nothing starts... zippo...ziltch... our southern neighbours have enough problems right now.

Not to mention, I don't want any oil on the beaches in Cuba... it will ruin my winter vacation :)
thats another thing ya all talking about the cv season kicking in when in fact the cv season normally comes to an end by late sept real early in oct so in reality there is about 6 weeks left of cv season and we have seen nothing from that region to really talk about
I am going to check that out, how many hours out?


Quoting BDAwx:
Oh by the way, i dont know if anyone else noticed but, the operational GFS has now caught onto what the ensemble has been showing as Levi pointed out these past few days:
Quoting msgambler:
Hey now, I listen to radio at 3am but I drive for a living.


Hmm let me guess...
Blue Collar Comedy :)
1549. dader
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:
It's odd that people are basing their number predictions on what has, or rather was has not happened yet this season.
being born and raised in South Florida. I know we never even thought about the season until September 1st growing up. I remember thinking Andrew was a very early storm at the time. I don't believe June through August is telling of much of anything. just my opinion...


While it is anecdotal, I agree with the above. I was raised here and used to have a business with friends readying people's houses for the tropical season. We wouldn't even think about getting off the beach to begin work until the first week of August. And none of us expected any storms (that were worth worrying about) until the last weeks in August. If anything came close to Fla before that it was an anamoly to us. As I said it is anecdotal, but many believe experience is the best teacher. Many of the younger/bad memory bloggers on here think the season is a bust b/c of recent early starting seasons.

Any TC I am on the Treasure Coast as well. Great start to the day-- beautiful here.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm let me guess...
Blue Collar Comedy :)
Smart Elic....LOL
1551. BDAwx
Quoting Goldenblack:
I am going to check that out, how many hours out?



first develops the storm off Africa in 8-10 days (240h)
Some of the topics and people are....that is for sure. It is not an everyday listen...

Quoting msgambler:
The followers and listeners are nut jobs and crazies. I had the chance to listen to show on a trip home one night and it was about the most stupid thing I have ever heard.
GFS develops a wave off Africa by Tuesday.
Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats another thing ya all talking about the cv season kicking in when in fact the cv season normally comes to an end by late sept real early in oct so in reality there is about 6 weeks left of cv season and we have seen nothing from that region to really talk about


We typically don't until sometime in Aug. Some busy seasons didn't have their fist name until Aug., we're already waiting for number 4. Still almost 3 weeks left to Aug. alone and then the whole month of Sept., plenty of time to get busy if the conditions are right. Not saying for sure it will but chances are good.
Quoting 69Viking:


We typically don't until sometime in Aug. Some busy seasons didn't have their fist name until Aug., we're already waiting for number 4. Still almost 3 weeks left to Aug. alone and then the whole month of Sept., plenty of time to get busy if the conditions are right. Not saying for sure it will but chances are good.

I will sit back and wait...and believe it when I see it.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I'm sticking with 17 10 6. Too many indicators pointing 2 a dangerous time ahead.


There have been quote on quote indicators for weeks now. The end is near... blah... blah..

The dry air has been the biggest detriment to storms forming in the entire basin so far.

Hopefully things will never ramp up this season. I'm forecasting 12 storms for the season and that might be gracious.
Link
check out EX-TD5
Howdy all...
NOAA Hurricanes and the Oil Spill fact sheet
Link
a very good analysis from my compatriot SLU.
Ihave been saying so for weeks now. i did reiterate this observation in a post this morning. i remember 2006 had the same hype for an active season and in post analysis an unexpected el nino was the cause for the low storm numbers. looking at the environment now and the coming weeks it does not look like the explosion which all the season forecasters are predicting is still some way off. let's wait and see what transpires towards the end of month
1561. IKE
Quoting IKE:


A lot of people won't be happy if this happens lol. (The MJO going down, down, down lol)
Non weather related item that should be of news to all of the US citizens.... This is just so wrong in so many ways... someone needs to make sure something like this never happens again.

Widow of Medal of Honor recipient can't afford to attend Arlington burial...
Good Morning/Evening

I know in Florida, the heat brings a heavy load to our electrical grid. Any word on how Moscva's grid is handling it?
Quoting IKE:
I look at the visible satellite of the entire Atlantic basin and look at the ECMWF through Aug. 22nd and wonder....what the heck is going on with this "season"?????


ECMWF through Aug. 22nd...

Eastern ATL view....Link





good question. Very Hot temps equal dry air?? lots of dry air due to increased global temps?? too much dry air to support much tropical development?? I do believe everyone will be shocked at how little action we get this year. That said if Im wrong you can sing me the I told you so song
Quoting IKE:


RIP 93L. Bastardi thought that one would be a named storm.




Apparently all of the experts do because they all give out seasonal #'s.


I have no problem with one giving out season numbers, but to wishcast and downcast to meet your personal goal of being right on with your numbers is what drives me crazy!
1569. NEwxguy
Quoting OneTouchWeather:
As the webmaster of OneTouchWeather, I am wondering why this hurricane season has not produced the serious storms that were predicted.


Because it is only August 12th
Quoting StormW:



Well, I try to...but most folks don't listen.


Yes you do Storm, and we appreciate it! Most at least.
1571. NASA101
Quoting StormW:




Thanks StormW for posting this - just goes to show that even the model do not agree on the MJO (from what IKE posted earlier)
Quoting SLU:
Repost about the early season "lack of development"

Well i've been asking myself the same thing over the last few days after the demise of Colin and now TD 5.

Coming into the season, there was a lot of "hype" in it being one of the worst seasons off all time .. mind you it can still can be. There was talk of it getting off to a rapid start like 2005 and there being major storm development very early in the season. I don't blame the forecasters for saying so because coming into the season the conditions looked even more favourable for development than in 2005, in particular the SSTs being at record levels for several months in a row.

Since July, whilst there has been a distinct lack of development as a result of shear and dry air/SAL there have been many systems which formed close to land and did not have enough time to strengthen before moving inland. Under different circumstances, these systems (95L, TD#2, 98L) could have become full fledged tropical cyclones. Add to the mix the un-numbered 92L from the Central Atlantic in June and if Bonnie and now ex-TD5 were positioned differently to escape the ravages of the high shear from upper lows etc, then we could very well be on our 6th to 8th named storm tonight.

Also, remember coming into the season we were told that most of the development will take place closer to land and that has already verified. The storms have apparently formed so close to land that they have ruined their own chances of intensifying much. However, the much advertised congregation of storm tracks near the US and the Caribbean is already verifying even at this early stage.



The main difference between the 2005 and the 2010 storm tracks on this date, is that most of the 2005 activity by August 11th had formed far from land which gave them more time to become powerful systems. This year on the other hand, the waves coming off Africa had to contend with a drier than normal MDR which had very low RH levels in the whole of July which is why those waves which eventually developed were naked swirls across the Atlantic and waited until 60W to blow up. In 2005 there was a lot more deep layer moisture which allowed MH Dennis and MH Emily to form much further in the deep tropics and earlier than climatology would suggest.

Another thing to note is that a 2005-like or even a 2008-like season with activity virtually evenly spread out throughout the season can be totally thrown out the window at this point. This season looks like it will conform to the more climatologically correct pattern similar to 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2007 when most of the activity was concentrated around the August 15th to October 15th climatilogical peak with very few breaks inbetween storms.

I will compile some interesting data tomorrow to show a commom link with all these seasons and what we should expect this year.

Having said that, I still believe we could see an 18-10-5 year in 2010. There is just too much warm water along with the enhancing effects of La Nina as well as several other positive effects to believe that this would be anything but a hyperactive hurricane season



Well written, SLU!!! So well written i actually took the time to sign in and post instead of lurking unsigned like i usually do! Probably good so i could read my new mail...!
TD5, is it stalling?
1574. tkeith
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
TD5, is it stalling?
Conditions live from TD5...

80.7 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Pressure: 29.82 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 89 °F
1575. centex
Is ex-AL05 getting better organized and is it moving inland or following the coast?
Somehow you just can't imagine a couple of men sitting on a boat off the East Coast in 1938 with spam sandwiches and Lucky Strikes going:

'Yeah, no storms yet. Not like 1933, this one.'

'Agreed'.

1577. BFG308
Quoting poknsnok:


good question. Very Hot temps equal dry air?? lots of dry air due to increased global temps?? too much dry air to support much tropical development?? I do believe everyone will be shocked at how little action we get this year. That said if Im wrong you can sing me the I told you so song


Conventional wisdom contradicts that notion. High temps=>more evaporation=>more precipitation
Quoting dader:


While it is anecdotal, I agree with the above. I was raised here and used to have a business with friends readying people's houses for the tropical season. We wouldn't even think about getting off the beach to begin work until the first week of August. And none of us expected any storms (that were worth worrying about) until the last weeks in August. If anything came close to Fla before that it was an anamoly to us. As I said it is anecdotal, but many believe experience is the best teacher. Many of the younger/bad memory bloggers on here think the season is a bust b/c of recent early starting seasons.

Any TC I am on the Treasure Coast as well. Great start to the day-- beautiful here.


I would have to agree with this - we never really started to pay attention to things until the end of August - beginning of September. Once again, I think the interest in the storm formation from the beginning of the season is due to information overload. There are so many ways to find out about the AOI that never existed before.

I have never understood those who want to fight about the numbers. 1992 was not a very active season, but it changed the lives of everyone in South Dade.
1579. FLDART1
Quoting zoomiami:


I would have to agree with this - we never really started to pay attention to things until the end of August - beginning of September. Once again, I think the interest in the storm formation from the beginning of the season is due to information overload. There are so many ways to find out about the AOI that never existed before.

I have never understood those who want to fight about the numbers. 1992 was not a very active season, but it changed the lives of everyone in South Dade.
AMEN TO THAT!!!
1580. Relix
I believe this season was overhyped. Yes, it's always good to be ready, on the watch, But let's be honest for a second, so far the predictions haven't been spot on. Almost everything has problem spinning even with the record hot SSTs. Obviously someone will reply with "Lack of patience, etc" but forecasters did miss on this season, at least to this point. We are in the 12th of August, things should have picked up and in fact they did, but there are very unfavorable upper level winds nearly everywhere. Even the predicted lower shear has had a number on most systems.

Sorry for the long rant. I do believe forecast numbers will be lowered a bit more. I would say 13-15 storms is the best bet this season. How many majors? Who knows. Waters are hot but conditions haven't been there all this time. Let's see how the season goes, but after all the hyping and "return of 2005!" this has been a dud compared to that. Of course... you only need one Major to really make it the worst season ever so yeah.
1582. tkeith
1578. zoomiami

Zoo, you have a way with words...nice post :)
good morning storm!!
i ve been a reader's blog for almost six years ,never posted before ,,id like to know what it mean in post 1506 ,please ,thanks in advance
sorry storm !! i mean post 1566!!
1585. Thaale
Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning/Evening

I know in Florida, the heat brings a heavy load to our electrical grid. Any word on how Moscva's grid is handling it?

I suspect most Muscovites don't have air conditioning available, so I don't think the heat wave would stress their grid to the same extent one in DC or Dallas typically does here. Obviously there'd still be some impact.
La Nina still hasn't slowed down sheer over here on the Atlantic side of the globe.
Hi guys. I've been lurking for 5 years and decided to pop in and share something:

Check out the current NOLA radar.

Thoughts?
1588. SLU
Quoting Indialanticgirl:


Well written, SLU!!! So well written i actually took the time to sign in and post instead of lurking unsigned like i usually do! Probably good so i could read my new mail...!


Awww. Thanks for the pleasantries.
the models have been very disappointing this season. a number of runs have shown the formation of cyclones others have shown the develoment of invests into storms and hurricanes which have never materilised. i suspect the information is not being fully analysed. there have been too many inconsistencies
1591. NASA101
Quoting StormW:


Well, the EWP model doesn't even have a good handle on the MJO, and hasn't all season.


THAT wave over Central Africa (10 degs EAST) still looking pretty good as yesterday!!
Quoting IKE:

not gonna happen
1593. SLU
The GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and ECMWF all show a powerful wave approaching West Africa in 6 - 8 days.
1594. NASA101
Quoting SLU:
The GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and ECMWF all show a powerful wave approaching West Africa in 6 - 8 days.


Yes, that's the one over central Africa around 10 EAST - 10 N
Quoting biff4ugo:
La Nina still hasn't slowed down sheer over here on the Atlantic side of the globe.


??

For the most part shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been below climitology since June.


Local NWS Met here in NOLA calling it Dew Point #5
Quoting BFG308:


Conventional wisdom contradicts that notion. High temps=>more evaporation=>more precipitation

Not necessarily. I've noticed that humidity increases with temperature until about 97-99F, then it just starts to get drier. Think about it... every time you hear about the temp being over 100F, its drier. When that same area becomes very humid, its rare for the temps to get above 99F.
1598. Thaale
Quoting stoormfury:
the models have been very disappointing this season. a number of runs have shown the formation of cyclones others have shown the develoment of invests into storms and hurricanes which have never materilised. i suspect the information is not being fully analysed. there have been too many inconsistencies

Many of the models seem to have a bias toward overdevelopment. Which makes sense from a human POV...for safety's sake, we'd rather err on the side of hypercasting than hypocasting.

But the CMC does seem to have been retuned, as advertised, the last two years, to produce fewer imaginary storms than it used to in 2008 and prior (often you'd look at a 240 hour CMC run and it would show five or six tropical systems popping up, none or few of which ever eventuated).
Quoting Relix:
I believe this season was overhyped. Yes, it's always good to be ready, on the watch, But let's be honest for a second, so far the predictions haven't been spot on. Almost everything has problem spinning even with the record hot SSTs. Obviously someone will reply with "Lack of patience, etc" but forecasters did miss on this season, at least to this point. We are in the 12th of August, things should have picked up and in fact they did, but there are very unfavorable upper level winds nearly everywhere. Even the predicted lower shear has had a number on most systems.

Sorry for the long rant. I do believe forecast numbers will be lowered a bit more. I would say 13-15 storms is the best bet this season. How many majors? Who knows. Waters are hot but conditions haven't been there all this time. Let's see how the season goes, but after all the hyping and "return of 2005!" this has been a dud compared to that. Of course... you only need one Major to really make it the worst season ever so yeah.


Its only Aug 12th......
1600. SLU
Quoting NASA101:


Yes, that's the one over central Africa around 10 EAST - 10 N


Yeah. I've been watching it. Could be the 1st Cape Verde storm.

Quoting stoormfury:
the models have been very disappointing this season. a number of runs have shown the formation of cyclones others have shown the develoment of invests into storms and hurricanes which have never materilised. i suspect the information is not being fully analysed. there have been too many inconsistencies


Well this happens every year. Nothing different. They have handled 93L very very poorly though.
1601. FLDART1
Maybe we should Go and Find Ms.Cleo and her psychic friends and see if we can get a handle on this season...LOL
1602. Hhunter
kinda looks like old td 5 reminants maybe slipping sw...any chance it gets back into gulf?
Quoting StormW:


Well, the EWP model doesn't even have a good handle on the MJO, and hasn't all season.

I've noticed the EWP model doesn't do well in strong La Nina or El Nino. Maybe something to do with not handling the feedback in EPAC waters well?
For the most part shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been below climitology since June.


Thanks for the comparison. It sure keeps shredding storms.
I personally can't wait til the season is over then we will see who is right or wrong. If it is a bust, the bustcasters can pat themselves on the back, and if not, well, lets hope it won't be to hard on those affected. I am hoping for the bust, but have a feeling that I won't get my wish!
[sarcasm]

Maybe the slow start to the season is due to Bill Gates' hurricane-fighting invention:

See here.

[/sarcasm]
1607. Hhunter
Link

check out the loop...
Quoting biff4ugo:
For the most part shear in the Tropical Atlantic has been below climitology since June.


Thanks for the comparison. It sure keeps shredding storms.

Overall shear has been low, yes. The ULLs have been ripping storms apart. Remember Colin had a very clear track shear-wise through the Caribbean, but took a route north of the islands and got eaten alive by the ULL north of PR.
1609. Thaale
Quoting SLU:
The GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and ECMWF all show a powerful wave approaching West Africa in 6 - 8 days.

The good thing is that don't most of the models show it exiting Africa at a fairly high latitude, and/or immediately heading WNW? Looks like some of the models have it already at almost 15°N or even close to 18°N by the time it separates from the continent.
1610. SLU
Quoting Relix:
I believe this season was overhyped. Yes, it's always good to be ready, on the watch, But let's be honest for a second, so far the predictions haven't been spot on. Almost everything has problem spinning even with the record hot SSTs. Obviously someone will reply with "Lack of patience, etc" but forecasters did miss on this season, at least to this point. We are in the 12th of August, things should have picked up and in fact they did, but there are very unfavorable upper level winds nearly everywhere. Even the predicted lower shear has had a number on most systems.

Sorry for the long rant. I do believe forecast numbers will be lowered a bit more. I would say 13-15 storms is the best bet this season. How many majors? Who knows. Waters are hot but conditions haven't been there all this time. Let's see how the season goes, but after all the hyping and "return of 2005!" this has been a dud compared to that. Of course... you only need one Major to really make it the worst season ever so yeah.


I hope this puts to rest your concerns:

EXCERPT

Since July, whilst there has been a distinct lack of development as a result of shear and dry air/SAL there have been many systems which formed close to land and did not have enough time to strengthen before moving inland. Under different circumstances, these systems (95L, TD#2, 98L) could have become full fledged tropical cyclones. Add to the mix the un-numbered 92L from the Central Atlantic in June and if Bonnie and now ex-TD5 were positioned differently to escape the ravages of the high shear from upper lows etc, then we could very well be on our 6th to 8th named storm tonight.

Also, remember coming into the season we were told that most of the development will take place closer to land and that has already verified. The storms have apparently formed so close to land that they have ruined their own chances of intensifying much. However, the much advertised congregation of storm tracks near the US and the Caribbean is already verifying even at this early stage.

The main difference between the 2005 and the 2010 storm tracks on this date, is that most of the 2005 activity by August 11th had formed far from land which gave them more time to become powerful systems. This year on the other hand, the waves coming off Africa had to contend with a drier than normal MDR which had very low RH levels in the whole of July which is why those waves which eventually developed were naked swirls across the Atlantic and waited until 60W to blow up. In 2005 there was a lot more deep layer moisture which allowed MH Dennis and MH Emily to form much further in the deep tropics and earlier than climatology would suggest.
1611. BDAwx
its not that the shear has been higher than normal but that storms have only been able to form in the areas where there is shear.
Perhaps dry air in the Central Atlantic inhibiting development until 50-60W has prevented storms from generating and strengthening their upper anticyclones so they develop and move into the Upper Lows/pockets of wind shear. Either way storms have just been unlucky this year. I mean favourable conditions are there in many areas but storms are forming in areas where favourable conditions aren't present.
1612. beell
Don't keep much of a blog-but a couple of old posts:

Sunday, July 18th, 9:20PM CDT

Thought I'd post this here. Some folks on the main blog are a little touchy regarding storm count this year. This post has nothing to do with that. Just a couple of guesses about what is and may be.

Like the Uncle that no one wants to mention, the central and eastern Atlantic are dead. A continued infusion of dust and strong northeasterly trades along the African coast have kept this portion of the MDR dry, semi-dusty and stable. This particular part of the pattern may be with us for a while longer.

A chronic upper trough and/or ULL taking up residence in the far southwest Atlantic providing strong westerly shear right in the face of any westward moving waves. The waves remain in stealth mode while making the Atlantic crossing. Ventilation from the TUTT low providing a much better environment for deep convection but it comes at a cost. Shear...

Saturday, July 31st 9PM CDT

Can't help but notice that the Atlantic still looks just as hostile for development as it did two weeks ago.

All we got is a persistent surface trough in the ITCZ E of 40W allowing convection to consolidate. Enhanced by the passage of tropical waves. Once these disturbed areas move west of the ITCZ surface trough (near 40W) and gain a bit of latitude they tend to disappear. Under better conditions, I think this trough would be a rich source of CV storms or "seedlings" and we would be very busy. The Caribbean is not dead but it looked better two weeks ago.

An intrusion of air that is dry enough to squelch even the stratus deck moving WSW/SW out into the Atlantic off the NW coast of Africa. Certainly a bit of dust present in this intrusion. Anything N of 15N faces a much harsher environment in the eastern Atlantic-emerging waves included.

Farther west, the TUTT and associated east coast trough remain a consistent feature. The base of the TUTT making occasional trips to the SW-into the heart of the Caribbean basin.
S and SW flow around the big upper ridge over the SE, western Atlantic, eastern GOM, etc providing subsidence in addition to subsidence under and along the TUTT axis over most of the Atlantinc N of 15N...
1613. SLU
Quoting Thaale:

The good thing is that don't most of the models show it exiting Africa at a fairly high latitude, and/or immediately heading WNW? Looks like some of the models have it already at almost 15°N or even close to 18°N by the time it separates from the continent.


Well it could very well be a northward bias. Time will tell. The overall patter may keep it on primarily west to west-northwset track all across the Basin.
Quoting Hhunter:
kinda looks like old td 5 reminants maybe slipping sw...any chance it gets back into gulf?


No, No chance.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


No, No chance.

check the models
1617. Hhunter
check out the link and the clouds in front of the old td 5...my thoughts are that it looks like a rainy afternoon and evening in south east texas also....
1618. centex
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


No, No chance.
double negative means positive.
144 hr
1620. Hhunter
Link

season doom casters check this out.
Already more than six inches of rain has in parts of the West Bank, and rainfall amounts are steadily climbing all around the NOLA ares.....flood watches are in effect till Friday, and according to the local NWS that remnant low will be hanging around us for awhile pulling in moisture from the Gulf.
1623. Hhunter
No worries! Looking forward to the data you are compiling today for us comparing the seasons....no pressure...lol!
Quoting SLU:


Awww. Thanks for the pleasantries.

No worries, looking forward to the data you are compliling today comparing seasons...no pressure...lol!
1628. Hhunter
hey its blowing out of the west at a robust 7 mph in south la
1609.

1612.

Coming off the coast of Africa at a higher latitude may mean a decrease in the SAL - moistening up the atmosphere at a slighty higher latitude could improve chances for the follow on storms, could it not?
Lots of downcasters on this morning.
oh there it is 168 hr
We've probably not seen the last of Tropical Depression #5. Many models are showing it recurving over the SE US and entering the gulf and stalling before hitting LA as a hurricane on some models.
ex-TD05L pouch synopsis

Models continue to suggest that the storm will complete a loop over the southeastern US and move back toward the Gulf over the Florida panhandle in about 5 days.
Quoting AllStar17:
Lots of downcasters on this season.

Fixed for ya.
td 5 cody :)
Quoting AllStar17:
Lots of downcasters on this morning.


Season won't get going till September and October.
Lots of "ULL-icanes" this August... and don't forget the Blob-Casting!
ECMWF 240 hours out:



Hi Danielle, or Earl!
Quoting btwntx08:
td 5 cody :)


lol, sorry.
1642. calder
Quoting AllStar17:
Lots of downcasters on this morning.


There are definately more on this blog who exaggerate their forecasts or forecast as strongly as possible as opposed to the contrary. Many, many more.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ECMWF 240 hours out:



Hi Danielle, or Earl!

gfs shows the exact same thing at that time frame interesting
Quoting btwntx08:

gfs shows the exact same thing at that time frame interesting


I think that is the wave progged to come off of Africa on Sunday.
1646. hydrus
Quoting NASA101:


Yes, that's the one over central Africa around 10 EAST - 10 N
There is a huge wave getting ready to leave the coast now...Brian Norcross said last night that this wave is huge.
Next one to watch?
1648. calder
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


Good synopsis, I already read it and share your frustrations w.r.t those who are silly enough to write off a season so early. But why did you quote me?!
1649. PR51
Instead of talking about an "hyperactive" season, I think we have to begin talking about "hypoactive" season. LOL No activity in the near future...What a mess for the forecasters...
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


Great post Storm W! Thanks.
ouch at the end of the gfs run
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


I think that is the wave progged to come off of Africa on Sunday.


Monday or Tuesday.
1654. timmoss
I think that what is "hyped" is that Hurricane season begins on June 1. There are so many warnings from the local media here on the Gulf coast at the end of May that many people have begun assuming that if there aren't any big storms to report on by the 4th of July, the season is a "bust". June 1 is such a random date. If the meteorology community decided to say "hurricane season begins August 20th", which is much more accurate, we'd all be talking about what an active season we've had so far. If you've lived on the Gulf coast for any length of time, you KNOW that hurricane season is about August 20-October 10. Anything earlier or later than that is an anomoly.
1655. calder
Quoting StormW:


Didn't mean too...just got going to fast, as I still have to issue my synopsis to my clients, and made da boo boo!


Ha, what are you going to be like when we have some storms then?!
Quoting calder:


There are definately more on this blog who exaggerate their forecasts or forecast as strongly as possible as opposed to the contrary. Many, many more.


Certainly.
Some people don't understand.....all they say is 3-1-0.

HOWEVER, there have been 35 fatalities this season, with every storm causing at least 1, with the exception of TD 5 (right now).

Last year at this time we were 1-0-0, with Ana just forming, and, although it was quiet, still got 8 more storms after August 12.

Some people just need to let the season play out. La Nina seasons usually run well into November and even into December.
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


Great synopsis StormW, good luck convincing the downcasters though! They don't see what you and just about every other Tropical Weather specialists are seeing up ahead this year. It honestly scare me considering I live within a stones throw of the water in NW Florida. I was out on the boat last weekend and my fishfinder was reading 90 degree water in early August, that's not good! Keep up the good work!
i noticed something on thst gfs run it doesnt kill the system it keeps it alive and slowly strenghens it towards the end of the run
Quoting btwntx08:
ouch at the end of the gfs run


Almost similar ot the hurricane I lived through but dont remember because I was 2...what was the name..............Oh yeah!....Floyd
1660. MahFL
Quoting nola70119:
Local NWS Met here in NOLA calling it Dew Point #5


The JAX NWS did the same thing, I don't understand it.
Great synopsis Chief!! I have no doubt that before the sesaon is over we here on the upper Tx/La coast will get hammered!!
1664. Prgal
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


Awsome! Thank you!
1665. calder
Quoting AllStar17:


Certainly.
Some people don't understand.....all they say is 3-1-0.

HOWEVER, there have been 35 fatalities this season, with every storm causing at least 1, with the exception of TD 5 (right now).

Last year at this time we were 1-0-0, with Ana just forming, and, although it was quiet, still got 8 more storms after August 12.

Some people just need to let the season play out.


I'm probably referencing more to forecasting for individual invests/storms and the constant overshooting of intensities/two percentages that lots on here think the NHC should be posting. It happens every day in here and it becomes pretty wearing.
1667. angiest
Quoting MahFL:


The JAX NWS did the same thing, I don't understand it.


You are viewing the translated version of the forecast/discussion on WU? For some reason. WU translates TD as dew point.
1668. Melagoo
... if people looked at the graphs of peak time for storms then you wouldn't want to write off any season this early ... late August and September of course are the active times.
Thanks Storm for your synopsis!
Meteor Shower peaks tonight!
1671. Melagoo
... if a strong T-storm or a Cat 1 hurricane hit to GOM now with the temps where they are would be frightening
1672. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
For the record, some people are letting the season play out.

Right now, the score stands 3-1-0.
The GEM model has a couple of lows meandering around the Gulf of Mexico for the next week..Link
I wunder if the (weather overground) site is having the same problem with these storms?
Quoting Melagoo:
... if a strong T-storm or a Cat 1 hurricane hit to GOM now with the temps where they are would be frightening


All depends on wind shear and dry air, also upper atmosphere conditions. We could have a very well organized storm get into the gulf with moderate shear and some dry air and it can turn it back into a wave and send it on its way.

High SST's is only one important ingredient.
Storm, for what it's worth, everytime you see someone ignore the signals and declare the season over/underperforming/overhyped/etc., there are 100 lurkers like myself who are paying attention and just not posting a lot. So, thanks again to everyone for sharing their considerable knowledge of the tropics.
1679. Prgal
Quoting Boudreaux77:
Storm, for what it's worth, everytime you see someone ignore the signals and declare the season over/underperforming/overhyped/etc., there are 100 lurkers like myself who are paying attention and just not posting a lot. So, thanks again to everyone for sharing their considerable knowledge of the tropics.


I agree 100%
Something slowly organizing north of Panama.
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


Thank you for your update. You know that I'm new to the blog. But I had the experience of Hugo in 1989 and Georges in 1998 living in Puerto Rico. My ears are really open cause I don’t really want to be caught off guard neither I want such a catastrophe for very poor people that lives in near countries like Hispaniola specially Haiti which is already suffering. This year has a lot of similarities with 1998 and again I don't want anybody experiencing another Category 3 Georges the same way I did 12 years ago. Thank you for your advice.
Storm, that really was a great synopsis! I do hope more folks check it out so they MAY be educated about what's going on now, and where things are headed. Thanks Storm!
Quoting weathermancer:
Something slowly organizing north of Panama.


Columbia Low?
Looks like TD #5 is becoming comma shaped

1685. Prgal
Quoting tatoprweather:


Thank you for your update. You know that I'm new to the blog. But I had the experience of Hugo in 1989 and Georges in 1998 living in Puerto Rico. My ears are really open cause I don’t really want to be caught off guard neither I want such a catastrophe for very poor people that lives in near countries like Hispaniola specially Haiti which is already suffering. This year has a lot of similarities with 1998 and again I don't want anybody experiencing another Category 3 Georges the same way I did 12 years ago. Thank you for your advice.


I agree with you also. Hugo and Georges were terrible for us and I learned to respect tropical systems. Before Hugo, I was kind of naive and wanted "to see a hurricane" affect us. Of course, I was very young and didnt know what I was wishing for.
1686. Drakoen
Surface observations support a closed circulation with ex-TD5
What will truly be interesting to see is how many of those repeatedly screaming "This season is a bust!!!" will have the integrity to man up and and step forward to admit how foolishlessly premature and completely wrong they were when they said nothing much would happen (if the predicted active to hyper-active season comes to pass, of course). My guess is: it won't be mant. Not many at all...
PGI25L about to interact with the TUTT...ya' know what that means..."Blob watch time!"

in fact, it looks like TD #5 is organizing.
Quoting Boudreaux77:
Storm, for what it's worth, everytime you see someone ignore the signals and declare the season over/underperforming/overhyped/etc., there are 100 lurkers like myself who are paying attention and just not posting a lot. So, thanks again to everyone for sharing their considerable knowledge of the tropics.



I concur!!
1691. Prgal
Quoting Neapolitan:
What will truly be interesting to see is how many of those repeatedly screaming "This season is a bust!!!" will have the integrity to man up and and step forward to admit how foolishlessly premature and completely wrong they were when they said nothing much would happen (if the predicted active to hyper-active season comes to pass, of course). My guess is: it won't be mant. Not many at all...


I don't think they will do it. They will just stay silent...I think.
Quoting StormW:
Here's an excerpt from the article by Dr. Klotzbach, which I have linked in my synopsis. He mentions what dates? And today is what?:

I thought that an easy way to examine the typical progression of these seasons was to see when the 2nd hurricane formed. So far in 2010, the North Atlantic has had only one hurricane (Alex). Table 1 displays the La Niña years since 1950 along with the date of 2nd hurricane formation and the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for that year. ACE is defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) divided by 10000. The 1950-2000 average of this index was 96, and for the 2010 season, we are predicting a value of 185.

The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet.

With regards to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, they are still running at record levels across the MDR, based on data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. I calculated the July SST over the MDR and have plotted the timeseries from 1948-2010 below (Figure 4). July 2010’s value was at record levels, approximately 0.1°C greater than it was in 2005.


Hi Storm

Your synopsis this morning was a great read. I have been posting the last few days that the action is not likely to start until after the end of next week. I also believe that this season will be more about intensity than numbers. In other words, more potent systems but not necessarily a great number of storms overall although that could happen as well.

Apart from Alex, what we have seen so far this year is like the support band before the main act. You know its there but its not what the show will ultimately be.



I think somewhere in the red circle is a closed LLC:

GFS, NOGAPS, CMC hinting at loop back into northern gulf tomorrow into Saturday. Takers?

Quoting Drakoen:
Surface observations support a closed circulation with ex-TD5
1696. Prgal
This is REALLY off topic, but...did school start in the US? The blog is very quiet right now.
Didnt the GFS show that TD5 may go back into the gulf... maybe we will see some redevelopment
LOL...jinx..I just said the same thing

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Didnt the GFS show that TD5 may go back into the gulf... maybe we will see some redevelopment
Quoting Goldenblack:
LOL...jinx..I just said the same thing




LOL
Quoting Prgal:
This is REALLY off topic, but...did school start in the US? The blog is very quiet right now.


Yep, they did here in Florida anyway.
Next week here in Central FL. I remember when school started much later than this.

Quoting Prgal:
This is REALLY off topic, but...did school start in the US? The blog is very quiet right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think somewhere in the red circle is a closed LLC:



I didn't see much movement associated with exTD5 last 10 frames.
Could he/she be a coast-hugger?
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


StormW I let ya a note on your blog. Awsome update and thanks for ur time. I am really starting to understand more and more thanks to you.
sheri
1704. Drakoen
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think somewhere in the red circle is a closed LLC:



Yup the system is making landfall in Louisiana.
1705. Patrap


eariler

Quoting Goldenblack:
Next week here in Central FL. I remember when school started much later than this.


Really? They went back today here on the Panhandle.
1695:count also the ecmwf as well
1708. Prgal
Quoting Goldenblack:
Next week here in Central FL. I remember when school started much later than this.



Thanks. Here in PR it already started. The blog is quiet (I kind of like it this way). I am waiting for Dr. Masters' new post.
Don't know, could be what the models are hinting at happening. if it stalls or drifts near the coast now...not so wonderful for rainfall totals in a low-lying area.....we'll see if that happens

Quoting weathermancer:


I didn't see much movement associated with exTD5 last 10 frames.
Could he/she be a coast-hugger?
Quoting hydrus:
There is a huge wave getting ready to leave the coast now...Brian Norcross said last night that this wave is huge.


Yes hydrus, I mentioned this yesterday as well, such a large and vigorous circulation, don't know if SSTs will be high enough to support something close to hurricane strength, but a strong developing tropical storm is certainly possible as the wave reaches 20W. This wave has such a well defined 850mb vort max, which is more circular in nature. SAL is a little strong just to the NE of Cape Verde Islands as an ULL moves away.
After looking at Pat's radar capture, I think it is moving onshore, no stalling here.

Quoting Patrap:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup the system is making landfall in Louisiana.


Ok... I see it now.
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.

Awesome blog Storm - thanks! I remember last year you mentioned that this year will be one to really watch....things will be getting interesting down the road.
A single "frozen" jet stream pattern is responsible both for the heat wave in Russia and the flooding in Pakistan. Image from NewScientist
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Didnt the GFS show that TD5 may go back into the gulf... maybe we will see some redevelopment
It is just another trof split with ex-05L enhancing it.
Quoting Goldenblack:
After looking at Pat's radar capture, I think it is moving onshore, no stalling here.



Looks to me like COC of TD5 crossed Chandeleur Sound between 1200-1300 UTC.
1719. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:


eariler



Looks like it organized back into a tropical cyclone.
frustrated much? almost everyone gave it that possibility....It was never forcasted to be much to begin with. Two days ago almost everyone who knows what they are talking about was pointing to sheer and lack of organization.

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.
on radar it still looks like a td
If anyone wants to veiw Brian Osborne live he is now live on remote. I can't post the link as it is too my website.....but, go to my blog and follow the link.....he is currently driving.
the earlier radar image Pat showed gave TD #5 a very Tropical-stormish look. Just waitin' on the rain now
was wondering about that....I no longer see the GFS or ECMWF forecasting a troph split off of the Carolinas next week....

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is just another trof split with ex-05L enhancing it.
Quoting Goldenblack:
Next week here in Central FL. I remember when school started much later than this.



It started here in Alabama monday. I remember when I lived in Tampa,Fla school started if i remember right Oct 1st why i remember is my birthday is Oct 3rd and i was 5 and had to wait til I was 6 to start. I went to Saint Frances Episcopal School and Church on Hillsbough Ave back in 1970 gosh that's along time ago. I don't know if it's still there or not. It was beautiful.
Well sorry off the subject just remembering the good days. Cause when you still a kid you don't have very many worries.

My son is in Grand Isle,LA and he said earlier it was rough the weather was horrible. He works for GSM.
Sheri
1727. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like it organized back into a tropical cyclone.


Structure wise she did and is...but wind on the Storm Relative never showed more than 30-35 in the overall.

But many times we've seen these fluffy ones consolidate near Landfall.
Was a rough rain morning but here in Uptown were in between bands at the moment.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Quoting Neapolitan:
What will truly be interesting to see is how many of those repeatedly screaming "This season is a bust!!!" will have the integrity to man up and and step forward to admit how foolishlessly premature and completely wrong they were when they said nothing much would happen (if the predicted active to hyper-active season comes to pass, of course). My guess is: it won't be mant. Not many at all...


However I think the same with the hyperactive forecasts if it turns out to just be an active year (12-14) storms.
Quoting Patrap:


eariler



Pat you may have been the only one getting TD5 correct...you keep saying it was east of Tampa....while everyone else keep looking south.....good job!
Quoting Prgal:
This is REALLY off topic, but...did school start in the US? The blog is very quiet right now.

My 4th grader started today here in Lafayette, LA.
this is for week two (17-23 Aug 2010)



if you can zoom in and read #7 thank you
1733. Patrap
Note the times as she organized and went west overnight.







STORM ...... Excellent post on your blog page.....

The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.

Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......

Good thing there is not anymore time for this to sit over warm water....ouch

Quoting Patrap:
Note the times as she organized and went west overnight.







Quoting Goldenblack:
frustrated much? almost everyone gave it that possibility....It was never forcasted to be much to begin with. Two days ago almost everyone who knows what they are talking about was pointing to sheer and lack of organization.

\

There also was alot of, "gettin ready to explode" talk from alot of respected people. Now the signs were there for it too, yes, but it didnt. People need to realize not every forecast is going to pan out, these things have a mind of their own sometimes. There is always the possibility that things wont pan out as forcasted and people need to understand that.
Storm W., I like your Tropical weather synopsis. Very informative. I always enjoy reading your comments, you back up everything you say on here. I'm not good at predicting the forecast like you do but I like learning what I can on here. As for the season, I believe we will see an active one, even though it started off slow. This is more the reason to be concerned.JMO
1739. Prgal
Quoting hurricanehanna:

My 4th grader started today here in Lafayette, LA.


That might explain why the blog is quiet. How is the weather your way? It looks like you are up for a ride.

1740. Thaale
Quoting DestinJeff:
"Somebody wake up the NHC!"

"What is the NHC looking at? This is clearly a TD!"

"My taxpayer dollars are paying for this kind of ineptitude from the NHC?"


Reed, is that you?
1741. Patrap
Just observing what I see thru time TS.

Note the echo tops still..lotsa energy and warm Water out there as she has slowed to a crawl seems.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI



1742. Drakoen
NWS NOLA:

SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OVERNIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TD #5 MOVED EAST TO WEST INLAND OVER ST.
BERNARD PARISH AND PLAQUEMINES PARISH. LIX 88D OBSERVED THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING BETTER FORMED...WITH SPIRAL RAINBANDS AROUND
THE EAST AND WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER...JUST BEFORE IT MOVED
ONSHORE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 4 AM.
You are very right.....I would classify the comments by those respected forecasters like StromW as cautious analysis, there was always the if in their statements.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
\

There also was alot of, "gettin ready to explode" talk from alot of respected people. Now the signs were there for it too, yes, but it didnt. People need to realize not every forecast is going to pan out, these things have a mind of their own sometimes. There is always the possibility that things wont pan out as forcasted and people need to understand that.
Quoting Patrap:
Note the times as she organized and went west overnight.








very interesting combination of imagery.. tells a good story.
Quoting Prgal:


That might explain why the blog is quiet. How is the weather your way? It looks like you are up for a ride.


yeah, once Pat gets done he's pushing over here lol We could use the rain fo sho'!
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.


you need to go back and re read the post that some put on here, the word COULD don't mean it will or want. They used that word. they wasn't trying to over hype this or nothing. in fact they said that night that's where the chances was if it took advantage of it.
Your very rude. I take it you have never made a mistake in your whole life, what a joke you are. Don't come on here bad mouthing these folks.
sheri
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
STORM

Excellent post on your blog page.....

The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.

Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......



how do you know that? its been the calm before the storms for a month now, thats all we've been hearing. "Just wait till next week!" well is almost August 15th now. and 18 storms is looking impossible.
im pretty sure it didnt loose its closed ciruation after all the nhc was tracking the wrong thing expect them to reevauate it as td 5 it never died
1750. Prgal
Quoting hurricanehanna:

yeah, once Pat gets done he's pushing over here lol We could use the rain fo sho'!


Then your wish might be granted lol.
It is quite possible that the LLC of TD5 at the time it was upgraded was not the dominant feature, but the MLC was, and caught us all by surprise that the MLC and LLC decoupled or were never really together for intensification. In my opinion, this is best exTD5 has ever looked.
1753. Patrap
Sheri,That blogger always opens with the Line..,

I just came from a Bar here in NOLA and a friend says a Hurricane is coming..!!

So take his post with a grain o pepper and some basco'.
zzzzzz
1755. Thaale
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
STORM ...... Excellent post on your blog page.....

The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.

Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......


Do you really think that people frequenting a hurricane blog even when there are no active TD's or projected ones soon are the type who are unprepared? Far from it.
sorry I meant #6
1757. Patrap
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
It is quite possible that the LLC of TD5 at the time it was upgraded was not the dominant feature, but the MLC was, and caught us all by surprise that the MLC and LLC decoupled or were never really together for intensification. In my opinion, this is best exTD5 has ever looked.


They always discount the LLC that sneaks away..wasnt a single mention f it till the NOAA radio went off here at 4am.

So they dropped the ball on it easily the NHC.

I was tracking it since 5pm yesterday evening.
Period.

24 More over water and it would have been a lot stronger and bigger.

So they need to Hire some blogger's maybe?

LOL
1758. Prgal
Dr. M seems to be VERY busy these days...he is updating the blog close to noon.
Quoting Goldenblack:
You are very right.....I would classify the comments by those respected forecasters like StromW as cautious analysis, there was always the if in their statements.



Its just a shame, as if this season doesnt pick up, you really think half the people that arent here will give a hoot if they predict a dangerous season next year? there will be alot of "we heard this last year"
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.


Well, just wait because it is rolling in right now and appears to have a nice closed circulation. Anyone who has lived in NOLA knows that a good thunderstorm, let alone a TD/TS/Hurricane, can overcome the pumps and put the city under water. I was here for the '95 floods, I was here when a little TS put us under water in '98 (took me three hours to get down a totally flooded Airline from the interstate exit to Causeway) and I have been here for everything inbetween. It flooded like crazy from a couple days of rain last December. I got stuck Uptown in 3 feet of water. So, this can still be a serious threat if it is big rainmaker. Don't ever discount a storm here, period.
I remember my first year of school started Sept 2. By my freshmen year of High school it started August 8th. Then they pushed it forward again luckily.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
In my opinion, this is best exTD5 has ever looked.

That isn't saying much. (TD5 looked pretty good when it was trying to spin up north of Key West)
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same negative thoughts and/or hopes.
1764. Patrap
as per #1760



Heavy rains lash metro area; street flooding snarls commute

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five pushed ashore early Thursday morning, flooding some streets in the New Orleans metro area and snarling the commute in sections.


Click for Local Flood pics this am
Quoting Thaale:

Do you really think that people frequenting a hurricane blog even when there are no active TD's or projected ones soon are the type who are unprepared? Far from it.


Please re-read what I wrote.....

I'm talking about these downcasters and "the the season is a bust" people on here...

I'm not talking about the folks on hear wanting to learn and understand..... Those folk I'm sure, as I am, are prepared in more ways than one....
LMAO...nice, Webster

Quoting Neapolitan:
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same neagative thoughts and hopes.
Haha Neapolitan, good post.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think somebody needs to be fired someplace. This is the 2nd time in 3 weeks they have completely missed the boat. Despite the fact that some of the models, especially the EURO, CMC and NOGAPS did not develop TD5, they blindly jumped on the overhype bandwagon. They overlooked the fact that this thing was not intensifying. If they continue to cry wolf we will have people ignore them. From Monday AM when this thing came off Florida it didn't look like much, and it continued to look pathetic right up to when the NHC suddenly declared it dissipated . Also the so called experts on this blog, such as StormW and Co, continued to give their long winded "synopses" about how this thing would grow. Well boys, it didn't. None of you even mentioned that it just might die out. You have a lot of soul searching to do and explaining to do if you want people to believe you when the real thing approaches. You seem to be engaged in educated GUESSING, with the emphasis on guessing.

wrong on that one it had it as a td wow bad eye sight
Quoting Patrap:


They always discount the LLC that sneaks away..wasnt a single mention f it till the NOAA radio went off here at 4am.

So they dropped the ball on it easily the NHC.

I was tracking it since 5pm yesterday evening.
Period.

24 More over water and it would have been a lot stronger and bigger.

So they need to Hire some blogger's maybe?

LOL


Quite possible Patrap. 850mb vorticity with the large African wave past 10W moving westward has increased and has become even more symmetrical. THis looks to be in favorable conditions at this moment.
1770. Patrap
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun
Quoting Neapolitan:
Members of Bustcasters United, please take note:

Shut up, already!

bust-cast-ing: (BUST-kasst-ing or BUST-kass-ting) verb 1 : the act of downplaying the eventuality of some future event or condition based solely on one's negative thoughts and/or hopes rather than the study and analysis of available pertinent data 2 : spec. meteorology: the act of ignoring in whole or in part any logical, climatological, and computational data that contradicts one's thoughts and/or hopes when forecasting that a particular weather event will not occur, while putting full faith in only those data which correlate with and support those same neagative thoughts and hopes.



Right... since so far we are right and you are wrong... we are the ignorant ones not looking at all the data. Well the data could say there will be 100 storms, but they do have to eventually happen at one point!
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:
STORM ...... Excellent post on your blog page.....

The folks who keep runnings their mouths saying "the season is a bust" are more than likely the ones that are not prepared. These folks will be the ones calling for help after a storm and wondering why no one can get to them and will blame the government for not helping them 4 hours after storm has passed.

Get with it people..... this is the calm before the storms......



Even though you don't Roll with the Tide, I don't think I coulda said it better
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, August 12th, with Video


Thanks for the update Levi!
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976
Quoting StormW:


Thank you.


Thanks for your update Senior Chief Caster
The center is gonna be a trackable entity for another day at least, I'm thinking. Slow moving means lotsa rain for the northcent gom. Hopefully it'll go somewhere where they need it.
It is not people who track and explore and make predictions about seasons that are the problem, complainers, it is those who choose to buy into everything as a absolute, one way or the other. Those people are the ones who run the gambit from "here comes a storm!!!!...yada yada!!! excitement" to "oh, they're all wrong, there isn't going to be anything, I am going to stop listening" The thing is, be wary, be vigilant, be prepared....but most of all....relax and realize, people get on this blog because they are interested in forces and complexities that are hurricanes....there are no absolutes!

Better yet, there are no magic potions of people with all the answers...and weather is never going to be forcasted with 100% accuracy.
We've been having sun showers here in PC all morning. A welcome relief from the heat of last week.
Pat that ull from your first radar pic is not the same llc thats over NO at the present,the current llc formed south-east of panama city yesterday about 2pm,the ull had moved far to the west and is currently offshore from TX,your post is misleading,just a observation,not a jab:)
1780. Patrap
Quoting stillwaiting:
Pat that ull from your first radar pic is not the same llc thats over NO at the present,the current llc formed south-east of panama city yesterday about 2pm,the ull had moved far to the west and is currently offshore from TX,your post is misleading,just a observation,not a jab:)


Im gonna respectfully disagree.
Quoting Patrap:


They always discount the LLC that sneaks away..wasnt a single mention f it till the NOAA radio went off here at 4am.

So they dropped the ball on it easily the NHC.

I was tracking it since 5pm yesterday evening.
Period.

24 More over water and it would have been a lot stronger and bigger.

So they need to Hire some blogger's maybe?

LOL


I would say the average population wouldn't really care about this as much as the blog does. People in LA know they are getting rain and and a lot of it as well as a very breezy day. There is no need to be making this a TD right now. TD's are usually designated when tropical storm formation is possible, which now it is not. If in fact it had 24 hours left to go on water. We would see a red circle were there is now a yellow.
Quoting Floodman:
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976


Dude --- Where did you get that graphic, I've never seen it before.... LOL
Gotta chime in here about some of this forecasting going on in here lately. We can look at the MJO, the Indian Ocean, the TUTT's, La Nina, etc. until we're blue in the face. We all know it is very favorable in the Atlantic Basin, but until something of note comes along, it's like beating a dead horse. Credibility is something I have to live by as a TV met. My viewers don't care about what is happening with La Nina or the wave we're watching coming off Africa (its 2 weeks away), but that is the "beauty" of forecasting hurricanes and tropical weather. Everyone keeps saying how we'll be caught off guard if we continue believing that this season is going to be a bust, while on the contrary, hurricanes are the one weather disaster that is easy to predict. Floods, tornadoes, severe weather give us minutes to prepare for and react. When there is a hurricane bearing down on an area, we know its there, we can see it and we usually have days to get ready and react. I would love to come on air and tell everyone about how favorable things are out there, but it does me no good, especially if things don't pan out. Just remember the credibility factor when we try to figure out what's gonna happen. The heart of the season is upon us, try to take it day by day instead of what is supposed to happen in the coming months.
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS AUGUST 12, 2010 ISSUED 10:25 A.M.


I read it few moments ago Storm. Nice explanation and very informative as usual.
Quoting Floodman:
While I know it's been posted over and over, I think that after reading some of the comments here this morning it is in order to post it again:



We are not even close to the heart of the season. It may be a bust, that is entirely plausible, but most of what I've been seeing here this morning is sour grapes.

"Wait til next week...that's all you ever say!"
"People will stop believing you if you keeop crying wolf!"
"We'll never see 18 storms at this rate!"
And the real topper:
"The season is dead!"

You guys sound like you want a couple of landfalling majors...let me guess: most of you live in landlocked states...is that it?

If you're looking for something to watch with a good probability of death and mayhem, I suggest NASCAR...or any Sly Stallone movie after say, 1976


Look, me predicting 11-5-3 (all above average) im not saying this season is a bust at all. I am only saying stop saying storms are guaranteed to happen! Nothing is a guarantee, being under 18 storms still isnt, but being above average season isnt either. People need to relax and analyze things that are out there now, not what they are guaranteeing will be there in 2 or 3 weeks.
Good Morning everyone...Great Blog update Storm W ...You know I think people here on the blog that critized you and others really are impatient people who skim over what you,Levi,Patrap,Drak, etc. and others post, then declare how wrong you guys are. I value all of your input and thank you all for explaning things to people like me who is interested in the weather.
Quoting Patrap:
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun


This says we are still due 15 Storms and 9 Hurricanes. Not far off predictions.
11 is too low lol
Looks like TD5 is lashing the LA coast and this may gone on for a while, particularly with more moisture in the Gulf headed that way. Hope everyone takes care while driving.
Expect some trees to come down too.


Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 10:01 AM CDT on August 12, 2010


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Assumption... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans...
St. Charles... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St. Tammany...
upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper
St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne. In southern Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison... Jackson and Pearl River.

* Through Friday evening

* the remnants of tropical depression number five are currently impacting southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Isolated rainfall amounts of up to 5 inches have already been reported across portions of southeast Louisiana. Since this is a slow moving system... additional heavy rainfall will be likely through Friday. Widespread rainfall amounts of up to 3 inches... with locally higher amounts of around 6 inches... may be possible.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
1791. SLU
Quoting Indialanticgirl:

No worries, looking forward to the data you are compliling today comparing seasons...no pressure...lol!


LOL... i'll do so this afternoon or this evening.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Dude --- Where did you get that graphic, I've never seen it before.... LOL


Silence! I KEEEEEL you!
Quoting Patrap:
83% of all Tropical storms form from this date onward..and 90% of Hurricanes as well. So historically..

we've only just begun

Listening to Barry Manillow this morning Pat? LOL

My bad I see it was the Carpenters
1794. Thaale
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Please re-read what I wrote.....

I'm talking about these downcasters and "the the season is a bust" people on here...

I'm not talking about the folks on hear wanting to learn and understand..... Those folk I'm sure, as I am, are prepared in more ways than one....

Yeah, it wasn't hard to follow. My point is that anyone who is a regular of this blog even during the slow times isn't the type to be cluelessly caught unprepared by a storm. That's true whether they're here overhyping the season, underhyping it, or just going with the flow.

Someone may think, hope, or predict that this year will come in under 18/10/5, but that doesn't mean they'd be likely to be foolishly unprepared without shutters or drinking water, or that they'd rush out and cancel their homeowners' insurance.
NEW BLOG
1796. JRRP

As this thing (TD5) flanked out they were influenced by the GFDL, which was clearly having a breakdown. No one used their eyes to see that this thing never looked like a healthy developing tropical system. It may be time for some heads to roll at NHC. That's 2 straight screw ups. This is preseason. Will you make it through the final cut? HA!
catastropheadjuster, I'm sorry if I sound rude. Would you call the coach rude when at halftime he gives a speech saying how lousy the team is playing? Gametime is approaching and we need better!
Vigorous tropical wave over central Africa is being turned into a major hurricane by the 06z GFS. Click the image below for the loop.

1799. srada
From my point of view, NC has in the past years have at LEAST a TD or TS around this time of the year..its always when school starts and kids have to make up those days at the end of the year..so I never really look at June or July as the hurricane season, especially not for our area, so do I think the hurricane season is finished..by no means especially for the east coast.

SN: Great Synoposis Levi..so the operational GFS is picking up on the east coast storm too? For long range predictions, this one might pan out
1800. angiest
Maybe its not real, buy I seem some 35kt winds in the NOLA radar's SRV scan.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Look, me predicting 11-5-3 (all above average) im not saying this season is a bust at all. I am only saying stop saying storms are guaranteed to happen! Nothing is a guarantee, being under 18 storms still isnt, but being above average season isnt either. People need to relax and analyze things that are out there now, not what they are guaranteeing will be there in 2 or 3 weeks.


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"
Good Morning WU...

Senior Chief: Great update this morning...thank you. I understand your frustration. While I am not a Met, or even a Scientist (just a lowly Engineer), I think it is import for folks to understand that it is important to stand back and look at the big picture. When you have most of the "signals" present to indicate an active season is in the making, you cannot simply ignore them just because we have a "slow start." I applaud the efforts of the experts to point out what may be coming. What we must keep in mind as well, is that there are still processes that are not completely understood. With each season, knowledge is gained.

But, no forecaster or model is 100 percent accurate all the time. It is way too early to call the season's forecast a "bust." If it turns out, at the end of the season, that the forecasted numbers do not manifest themselves, then the experts will have the opportunity to gain more understanding of the processes to increase forecast accuracy in the future.

Even the experts learn something new every season. For the rest of us, the most important take away, as Patrick keeps hammering home, and rightfully so, is be prepared!

For the non-Mets on the board, we have an incredible opportunity to become educated on these processes, without ever having to step into a classroom. I would encourage those who are truly fascinated by tropical systems, as I am, to take advantage of this rare opportunity to become better educated by the likes of the Senior Chief. He is certainly not obligated to do what he does. His passion to share his knowledge is rare. So, I would like to say, thank you Senior Chief, for taking the time, and making the effort to educate us. We do truly appreciate your efforts.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Quoting Floodman:


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"


Well put Floodman, thank you.

v/r

Jon
Quoting Floodman:


I agree; we need to consider climatology and the current conditions; not a lock, and no promises, but we're looking at a very possible major outbreak in the tropics sooner than later...2-3 weeks looks plausible, based on anyone of a number of things, but I think Levi32 summed it up very well yesterday in his Tropical Tidbit (sorry, Levi, but that still makes me think of diced pineapple and mango).

That having been said, there's still a chance that the season does go belly up...I think we'd learn more about hurricane forecasting and climatology if it was a bust, but the smart monety is still on some nasties.

What happens here is that people get too caught up in the predictions and not in the chagning environment; when the good ones (StormW and Co start to amend their forecasts based on conditions folks get angry about it...the NASCAR comment was directed at them...weather prediciton is not now, nor is it likely to become anytime soon, an exact science. Listen, pay attention and be prepared, those of you who live close enough to a coast for a hurricane to become a life and death struggle; for the rest of you, "Lighten up, Frances"

I think the main problem and the source of most of the "sour grapes" regarding this season thus far is all of the pre-season hype making this season sound like it was going to be another 2005. Now that it hasn't lived up to those expectations, people are tuning out and expecting the rest of the season to be as lackluster as the beginning has been.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I think the main problem and the source of most of the "sour grapes" regarding this season thus far is all of the pre-season hype making this season sound like it was going to be another 2005. Now that it hasn't lived up to those expectations, people are tuning out and expecting the rest of the season to be as lackluster as the beginning has been.


A good recipe for disasters with lots of people being caught off guard.
The key to the 2010 Hurricane season is to BE PREPARED. Anything could happen honestly. The ones that are highly respected on this blog are simple doing their very best to predict and help others BE PREPARED.I dont think the season has got going good yet, but I do have confidence in Levi, Storm W, Korith,Tampaspin, and others. And this blog HAS helped many in the event of a crisis (Storm), ME included. Patience is the key here and to be observant.
1808. surfmom
Blast in the Brine - TD5 makes waves - waves better then yesterday, still disorganized like this storm has been
Surfers Perspective SWFL
Thx Gulfster
photo gulfster
TD #5 here today gone tomorrow! Leftover crumbs this morning in the thigh high range with a light to moderate onshore wind. The tide is starting to fill in and may help improve overall shape, but what little swell is left is starting to drop off. Get it while its there it could be even smaller this afternoon on the low tide. Models have this area of low pressure dropping back into the Gulf and getting caught in a sagging cold front that stalls in the NE. Onshore flow will be with us for a few days so grom/longboard size waves could be the result.
Gulf Temp 89°