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Tropical Depression Five a heavy rain threat; the smoke clears in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on August 11, 2010

Tropical Depression Five is currently weak and disorganized, but it has the potential to organize into a potent rain-maker that may bring extremely heavy rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia over the next four days. Outer rain bands from TD 5 are already affecting the New Orleans region, where as much as two inches of rain has fallen in isolated regions. TD 5 has only limited heavy thunderstorm activity at present, thanks to an infusion of dry air early this morning from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. However, TD 5 is steadily recovering from this blow, and water vapor imagery shows the atmosphere is moistening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico as TD 5 builds more heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 15 knots over TD 5, and water temperatures are very warm, 31°C. The Hurricane Hunters have left TD 5, and a new aircraft is scheduled to arrive this afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five from the New Orleans radar.

Forecast for TD 5
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by tonight, and remain low for the remainder of TD 5's life. The main hindrance to development will be the current large, disorganized nature of the storm's circulation. Without a tight, well-defined center of circulation, it will take time for the storm to intensify, and I don't expect TD 5 will have time to become more than a 50 mph tropical storm. NHC is giving TD 5 just a 2% chance of reaching hurricane strength. The main threat from TD 5 will be rainfall. This is a slow-moving storm, and the steering currents pushing the storm towards the coast are expected to weaken Thursday and Friday. TD 5 will likely slow to a crawl on Thursday and Friday, moving at just 3 - 5 mph. This will allow the storm to dump very heavy rains in excess of eight inches in isolated regions.

93L
There is not much new to report on the tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean that has been close to tropical depression status for three days now. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air aloft and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

Moscow's air clears, but it is still extraordinarily hot
A thunderstorm blew through Moscow early this morning, bringing a little rain and a very welcome shift of wind direction. The wind shift freed the city from the persistent wild fire smoke that had plagued the city for seven straight days. Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 35°C (95°F) today, the 29th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 11 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first eleven days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. There is some modest relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 31° (86 - 88°F) Thursday through Sunday. This is still 20°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show no major change to the ridge of high pressure locked in over Russia, for at least the next seven days. However, both models suggest that a trough of low pressure may be able to erode the ridge significantly 8 - 10 days from now, bringing cooler temperatures of 5°C (8°F) above average.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon between 3 - 4 pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NAEFS 2-week forecast showing cooler temps over Cuba which you can barely see on the right side of the image, and when you see cooler temps in the midst of scorching heat in the tropics on a model, you have to be on the lookout because that means more rainfall which is cooling the temps, and in the tropics that can mean tropical cyclones running through the area.

Well, dangit, not wishing on my friends further south, but I'm headed outside to do a little raindance. It may not actually rain, but with the current humidity at least I know I'll get wet.
Quoting Patrap:


It went down fine.,thanx.

Hopefully Friday the bad stuff if any will be a scooting out.

many thanks....

lookin' forward to scarfing one down this weekend.
But never fear! "The Chart" has the magical power of making "next week" "very interesting"!

This seems to be the hurricane season of next week. Eventually next week will come.
Quoting tkeith:
466. fallinstorms

Just dont send this info to WikiLeaks...


not as good as this one HAHA
I hope Mother Nature doesn't pull a quikie on us in the Gulf?
Quoting fallinstorms:
i think this season is over


We still 2 1/2 months.. My 20KW generac is still not for sale!!!!
Quoting stormlvr:


Yes. Hopefully some will see that it is to early to judge the season. What you think you see is not necessarily what you are going to get!
That plus Levi's latest efforts are reminding me that the Bahamas usually gets its worst between the end of August and the beginning of October. I'm not letting down my guard yet...

Quoting IKE:


It's almost to the point of looking at the last 10 days of August for a chance of something significant, affecting anyone, in the Atlantic.

I know I'll get hammered from the blogger in Brownsville over what I'm saying, but I don't see much the next 7-10 days.
u and the blogger from brownsville just need 2 agree to disagree.... I'd already mentally set 15 Aug as the earliest we'd see anything major happening. I'm still looking at the area going into the E Antilles, though vorticity seems to have decreased markedly with that in the last 12.

Right now the ULLs still seem to be holding sway, but the SAL is way down. Other indicators are lining up. La nina seasons seem to get going late, but they last for a long long time....
Quoting twhcracker:


how do you know they didnt deliberate spill oil in order to create killer blood sucking mutant ridley turtles that will start seething and roiling around in the gom dispersing all the hurricanes!


Kemp's Ridley turtles are already critically endangered. The oil will just kill them further. It is unfortunately not a science fiction movie out there.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Watts is a phony meteorologist who flunked out of Purdue his sophomore year and claimed for years to be AMS certified when he wasn't. And Watts does allow imaginary cyber creations to post. So there is nothing reputable about Anthony Watts.


A right hook followed by a left jab then a right ear bite...
It would be nice if the trolls at least typed in recognizable English. How can I be outraged when I can't understand what they write?
Quoting StormW:
Levi.


Storm.
Quoting BahaHurican:
That plus Levi's latest efforts are reminding me that the Bahamas usually gets its worst between the end of August and the beginning of October. I'm not letting down my guard yet...

u and the blogger from brownsville just need 2 agree to disagree.... I'd already mentally set 15 Aug as the earliest we'd see anything major happening. I'm still looking at the area going into the E Antilles, though vorticity seems to have decreased markedly with that in the last 12.

Right now the ULLs still seem to be holding sway, but the SAL is way down. Other indicators are lining up. La nina seasons seem to get going late, but they last for a long long time....



Agreed.

I Wonder How the high will set up.
525. Levi32 1:15 PM CDT on August 11, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Levi.


Storm.

LOL!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Watts is a phony meteorologist who flunked out of Purdue his sophomore year and claimed for years to be AMS certified when he wasn't. And Watts does allow imaginary cyber creations to post. So there is nothing reputable about Anthony Watts.


Eh, Klotzbach is a big and respected name, and he posts there. That means something. Anyway, thanks for the article Baha...was nice to see his take on things.
Maybe this will be the kick the season needed.

Oh where oh where can my Danielle be. Somewhere between Tampa and Texas to me. She got to get one eye for us to see.Please oh please don't take her mr. Ull from me. I wish I good sing it but it would only make it worse.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That was a good find, thanks for sharing!
Just passing on the good stuff from earlier this a.m.

Table 1: La Niña years since 1950 along with the date of 2nd hurricane formation and the seasonal ACE accumulated in each year.
Year ASO Nino 3.4 2nd Hurricane Formation Date Seasonal ACE
1995 -0.66 1-Aug 227
1970 -1.04 2-Aug 40
1956 -0.63 10-Aug 54
1955 -1.39 12-Aug 199
1971 -0.63 15-Aug 97
1973 -1.2 20-Aug 48
1950 -0.75 20-Aug 243
1999 -1.01 22-Aug 177
1998 -1.17 25-Aug 182
1954 -0.98 27-Aug 113
1975 -1.34 30-Aug 76
1974 -0.53 31-Aug 68
2007 -0.92 2-Sep 74
1964 -0.86 3-Sep 170
1961 -0.52 3-Sep 205
1988 -1.55 9-Sep 103


Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/klotzbach-on-atlantic-hurricane-season-analysis/

Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, u should watch Levi's video if u haven't yet. It will give u the heebie jeebies...


Hmmmm... you are just full of "sharing" today. I watched it and will try to share back with you anything I see in this area.... heh heh
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!
Nice site!

Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Quoting fallinstorms:
everything is ripping!!!

ULL Are too strong this year

and its too dry

global warming is causing all this dry dust

too dry for a hurricane to form


you are the first one to mention the increased temps in the northern hemisphere actually drying out the atmosphere and limiting formation.
536. poknsnok

fallinstorms is a visionary...
Question for any who care to take a stab.

What's the area just east of the Bahama's. I know there is a tropical wave in the area but I don't see this area mentioned anywhere? Looks as if a weak area of LP is forming?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Maybe this will be the kick the season needed.

Hopefully this season never gets kicked. Bad possibilities...
StormW, Are still seeing a possible stall with TD5. Also on the current Satt, it looks to be organizing a little, or are my eyes playing tricks on me again?
Quoting StormW:


Just finished watching your video!

What are ya trying to do? Scare folks son?

(Just Kidding). Glad you showed the 500mb positive anomaly. Same thing you and I have been showing and talking about on here over the past week or two. We get that, and cooling over the central plains and/or eastward in combination with the MJO and the following...well...



LOL, yup just hunting for mischief. Still waiting for the real start of the season and when it comes I don't want it taking people by surprise.
Levi.. Storm..

As the 1950s was mentioned (one of more interesting hurricane decades) due to the cold PDO (as that the previous one started around 46/47, I think) and 500mb anomalies.

Not only did that decade love to take hurricanes into land, it also loved to spin up majors. The seasons weren't not necessarily majorly hot on numbers (though pre-satellite era can somewhat skew that), but the hurricanes were generally big and nasty.

As the AMO will likely wind down by 2025 or so, do you think a historical repeat of that decade could well be on the cards?

(Imagining this blog with a 1950 repeat. Yeesh.)



ScienceDaily: Your source for the latest research news and science breakthroughs -- updated daily

Stratospheric Water Vapor Is a Global Warming Wild Card


ScienceDaily (Feb. 1, 2010) %u2014 A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth's surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.


Observations from satellites and balloons show that stratospheric water vapor has had its ups and downs lately, increasing in the 1980s and 1990s, and then dropping after 2000. The authors show that these changes occurred precisely in a narrow altitude region of the stratosphere where they would have the biggest effects on climate.

Water vapor is a highly variable gas and has long been recognized as an important player in the cocktail of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide, methane, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, and others -- that affect climate.

"Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different -- it's a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn't expect," says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.
Its going to be difficult to defuse all that heat content in the GOM, Carribean, & the rest of the Atlantic back to normal levels this winter without having any efficient storms to equalize it, either way... If this season doesnt meet par. The potential fuel for next season could even be higher.
Quoting Levi32:


LOL, yup just hunting for mischief. Still waiting for the real start of the season and when it comes I don't want it taking people by surprise.


Levi, do you think TD 5 will become Danielle?
Quoting Cotillion:
Levi.. Storm..

As the 1950s was mentioned (one of more interesting hurricane decades) due to the cold PDO (as that the previous one started around 46/47, I think) and 500mb anomalies.

Not only did that decade love to take hurricanes into land, it also loved to spin up majors. The seasons weren't not necessarily majorly hot on numbers (though pre-satellite era can somewhat skew that), but the hurricanes were generally big and nasty.

As the AMO will likely wind down by 2025 or so, do you think a historical repeat of that decade could well be on the cards?

(Imagining this blog with a 1950 repeat. Yeesh.)


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.
Quoting StormW:


It's possible for a short stall, however it looks like it could just slow, before starting to curve. It may be trying to get better organized, as if you saw Levi's Tidbit, water vapor loop imagery indicates the deep layer ridge to the north, is now becoming oriented, with the flow now more out of the SE-NW, and should be providing a diffluent flow over the depression.

WATER VAPOR LOOP
thanks
Quoting Krycek1984:
I know that there has been a lot of analysis concerning a very active season and conditions that are ripe for tropical development. I have enjoyed all of the blogs, especially StormW's, describing why this is.

To play devil's advocate, are there any conditions in place that could hinder tropical development this season? I see a lot of "groupthink" and there must be data supporting a somewhat quiet, or even "average", season.
I had hoped to ask a similar qtn in the hurricanehaven show on Tuesday, but got back too late. I think one obvious factor is the TUTT and associated ULLs. I remember Drak a couple years ago pointing out that basically nothing happens in the ATL if that TUTT is set up right. I also remember seeing a graph / chart of some kind that illustrated why the optimum storm formation period was between 15 Aug and 15 Oct. There's info out there, but digging it up is the challenge.

Quoting sammywammybamy:



Agreed.

I Wonder How the high will set up.
uh.... let's not go there....

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!
Nice site!

Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Hey, HJ. re-Link, pls....
quoted from post4
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, then headed toward PortArthur,Texas, Destin,Florida and Galveston,Texas.
After TD5 had headed toward Waveland,Mississippi then IntracoastalCity (again)...
- Time and Date - - Location
11pmEDT 10Aug - 26.2N84.2W
02amEDT 11Aug - 26.3N84.5W
05amEDT 11Aug - 26.8N85.1W
07amCDT 11Aug - 27.1N85.8W
10amCDT 11Aug - 27.8N86.8W
...TD5 has been heading toward NewOrleans,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W, 30.3n89.5w, 29.6n92.1w, 27.8N86.8W-29.7n89.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
50 SaintPatrick "Where do you get this information from?"

The locations of Invests are usually from WeatherUnderground's Tropical front page link (as Coordinates under the storm name).
This time the NHC got coy with its data, and this site didn't receive Invest updates for 18hours.
So I turned to www.tropicalatlantic.com (linked as Location above) which apparently receives it's data more directly from the USNavy's ATCF (AtlanticTropicalCycloneForecast) rather than filtered through the NationalHurricaneCenter.

Then I place the last two location coordinates into the GreatCircleMapper (linked to above) to obtain a heading. And a map on the screen that I can eyeball get a feel for about where the storm would be heading for landfall IF it were to continue traveling in the same direction (which it won't).

I then enter airport into GoogleMaps searchengine, and locate the airport nearest the spot I eyeballed. I then either use GoogleMaps' "more info" to find the airport code, or Wikipedia to find the coordinates to the nearest city, which I link with the last storm coordinate to obtain a general heading.

Usually that guesstimated landfall heading doesn't match the storm heading close enough to exactly for my purpose of locating a landfall point.
Then it's just tinkering with the (usually the tenths of a degree) digits of the airport or city coordinate until the heading between the last storm coordinate and the landfall coordinate matches the heading between the storm's last two coordinates.

After typing up the first landfall location report, the rest is just a matter of redoing the process for the latest two storm coordinates, then adding the result to a minorly edited copy&paste of my previous report.
(I copy&paste my last report over the previous report into Notepad for reproduction&editing later; as well as keep a copy of the storm's path coordinates)
eg 94LthenTD5 26.2N82.3W-26.2N82.6W-25.7N82.7W-25.4N82.7W-25.5N83.0W-25.8N83.7W-
26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W-28.0N87.0W

As for why, somebody'll hafta ask for that diatribe. For now, let's say that:
I believe that folks have a marvelous ability to perceive patterns, and that
the NHC habitually acts as if "more facts will just confuse people".
A new center of relocation appears to be taking place about just west of Fort Myers, FL seen on their radar. Thoughts?
555. srada
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!
Well Stennis Space Center doesn't think TD 5 will be much of anything. They just released an email saying they'll be open for business and winds speeds of 30 – 40 mph can be expected. Winds could begin impacting the coast this evening and spread inland after midnight tonight and persisting through Friday August 13, 2010. Potential for rains of 3 to 8 inches during this event.

Local coastal flooding is expected at about 3 to 5 feet above normal
tides.
Okay, because someone asked, I'm volunteering my theory concerning the lack of hurricanes so far.

1. Solar minimum DOES play a role in tropical storm development as it is now proven that the depth of the atmosphere shrinks from 400 miles to around 280. This is bound to generate some sort of effect. Heat has less distance to travel to escape our atmosphere, so is heat transferring out faster and more efficiently from the upper atmospher right now?
2. The cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has started. Temps from Canada to N. Mexico along the coast have been abnormally low. Solar Minimums which occur during Cool PDO cycles have repeatedly demonstrated very low hurricane counts.
3. The repeated presence of dry air. If we were receiving the normal amount of energy from the sun would this be happening? Are we seeing a pattern of air currents which drags more dry air over tropical regions?

Offsetting my observations are the high SSTs in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic. Are we seeing a lack of cloud formation (due to Solar Minimum effects) which leads to more sunlight reaching the surface of the water? Cooler, dryer, clearer air suppressing clouds, but warmer surface water temps?

These are just observations/questions of mine. We have not witnessed a Solar Minimum during a cool PDO phase in the modern satellite era. The last time the PDO switched was in 1978/1979! Will the next 30 years be an entirely new ballgame as far as forecasting goes?
surface llc is about 50 miles ssw of panama city!!!,moving wnw link
Instead of removing his comments,just ban him.
***poof***
I was sure hoping to get a bit of rain here in Houston out of TD5 but it looks like we will have to wait... and burn.. and wait.. Im going to visit the 94 degree pool... Still cooler than the ambient temp outside..
Quoting srada:
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!


Thanks! I'm glad you liked it.
563. srada
Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.


Floyd 1999 hit NC..even though it hit as a strong Cat 2, it was projected at landfall as a 4..I know a Category 2 might not be considered a major but it did a lot of damage..yes the east coast is way overdue
I think TD5 is starting to look more organized, notice the bands on the northern side becoming more evident and not squished as earlier today. Nice symmetrical, broad look.
Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.
Hmmmm..... u r right on that... everthing, no matter how big in the ATL, had wound down to cat 1/2 by the time it hit the coast....
Quoting srada:
Levi, that was a great analysis..a storm for the carolinas? Scary thought..I appreciate how you spell out everything that even the most unknowledgeable person as myself could understand the weather..You are doing a great job!!


Let's just wait until "THAT" wave is around 40W - it's currently around 15 degs EAST, before people in the Carolinas start stocking up on essentials!! LOL
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't know! But that is really crazy. It looks really impressive and they downgrade it to 50%. Will someone give the NHC some common sense pills?? Please!!
Don;t worry about the NHC, they know what they are doing and are just fine...I think a lot of the people on this blog need some common sense pills, as you put it.
thank you aspectre
Quoting StormW:


Agreed...and Cotillion, as Bastardi has pointed out, in which I agree 100% DO NOT pay attention to the details of the model (i.e. the strength of systems popping up, or lack thereof...we have to pay attention to all of the "signals" that are here, and forecast to be in place).


Exactly. And that's the thing with the ensembles showing the hurricane approaching the SE coast. Specifics can't be believed, but the model is trying to get a point across and we can't ignore it. The pattern is ripe for such a thing to occur and to see it on a 2-week ensemble mean is really quite amazing.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
A new center of relocation appears to be taking place about just west of Fort Myers, FL seen on their radar. Thoughts?


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.
Quoting srada:


Floyd 1999 hit NC..even though it hit as a strong Cat 2, it was projected at landfall as a 4..I know a Category 2 might not be considered a major but it did a lot of damage..yes the east coast is way overdue


Along those lines, the upper Texas coast (roughly from Freeport to Sabine Pass) still hasn't taken a direct hit from a major since Alicia, since Ike wasn't technically a major... (I fully expect at some point they will eventually reclassify him).
Quoting Levi32:


Exactly. And that's the thing with the ensembles showing the hurricane approaching the SE coast. Specifics can't be believed, but the model is trying to get a point across and we can't ignore it. The pattern is ripe for such a thing to occur and to see it on a 2-week ensemble mean is really quite amazing.


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....
Quoting Grecojdw:


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.


What radar site is near there?
Yes, history repeating itself exactly in meteorology is a rarity, then usually due to mere coincidence.

But, thanks for your answers. Interesting years ahead, methinks.
Quoting NASA101:


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....


And assuming it even develops. The models could easily drop the storm altogether, but the overall pattern tells us to be on the lookout for development regardless. The fact that storms are showing up on ensemble means only reinforces that concern.
Quoting fallinstorms:
i haven't been banend yet because i speak the truth

If u speak the truth then yesterday u wanted TD5 to hit texas and said that it wasnt going to hit Louisania?? How's that speaking the truth.. LOL
Recon is flying TD5 now. Looks like the got the center now around 27.99N 87.49W based on wind shifts.
581. srada
Quoting NASA101:


Let's just wait until "THAT" wave is around 40W - it's currently around 15 degs EAST, before people in the Carolinas start stocking up on essentials!! LOL


sorry but Im already stocked up..dont want to be the one in the grocery store at the last minute trying to buy the last loaf of bread because I was still waiting on "THAT" wave..just keeping it real here..
And by the PDO in 1946/47, I mean going cold like it has now, not going warm (i.e. not a warm period from 46 to 08).

Just to clarify.

Quoting angiest:


What radar site is near there?


I'm not sure. I don't live in SouthFl. Does anybody from there no of a site for the local radar in that region?
Not looking good at all (or looking good, depending on your view point) for TD5. Very broad, and disorganized. Hopefully it will bring rain to those who need it.
Quoting Levi32:


Well exact repeats never happen but if you look at where we are going with the climate cycle with the PDO and AMO, it's the same as where we were in the 1950s, and thus we must be concerned that the same kind of pattern can yield the same kind of results. That's why you hear Joe Bastardi always pounding away at the New England hurricane idea because it happened in the '50s and could happen again soon. The east coast was slammed in the 1950s and they're overdue for some big ones. Way overdue. A major hurricane hasn't hit the eastern seaboard north of Florida since Fran of 1996.



what about floyd 99
586. xcool

I would start wondering why things cannot get going.


too many ULL 2010
The wave I am watching is near 10-15W.
Is it typical to have this many invests that do not develop into much? Are they just identifying invests earlier and where they may not have in the past?
The flooding death toll in China, including those from the recent landslide, has reached 2,570. Link
Dont think the center has relocated the NHC is portraying the right position, there just a chunk of energy there off west FL coast.

Levi explains it real good in his tropical tidbit or what ever its called.

It's just a huge broad low pressure system now.

If you look on long range radar out of Tampa you can see the whole moisture fetch moving in one direction.
Quoting Grecojdw:


I noticed that too. Maybe one of the more knowledgeable ones on this site could analyze this possibility.


I live in Ft. Myers, been watching radar all day, and I really don't see what you're talking about. The clouds have been dissipating and it's gotten much sunnier here in the last 2 hours. The storms offshore are consistantly moving N to NE. I'll keep looking though.
Link


That is the local radar for ft myers
Link

Radar imagery of where the MLC is, and where a new low level circulation could be developing?
Quoting stillwaiting:



what about floyd 99

it had weakened before it hit east coast
Quoting NASA101:


Agreed - the details of the exact landfall is not important right now - as this thing could easily wind up in the Gulf depending on the patterns in 2 weeks time....


Every storm dosent wind up in the great GOM believe or not, You are right that patterns can change which can be expected but thats not what it's setting up to be, the point was SE coast getting hit by a storm, not the GOM.
Quoting stillwaiting:



what about floyd 99


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.

4 to 5" of rain S of Daytona by radar est. It also looks as if the Orlando area could see similar rainfall totals as the ECSB is moving in and will collide with storms coming up from the south.
Quoting StormChaser81:
Dont think the center has relocated the NHC is portraying the right position, there just a chunk of energy there off west FL coast.

Levi explains it real good in his tropical tidbit or what ever its called.

It's just a huge broad low pressure system now.

If you look on long range radar out of Tampa you can see the whole moisture fetch moving in one direction.


You got it right lol.
QUICK POLL
5PM UPDATE TD5
A.30 MPH TD
B.35 MPH TD
C.40 MPH TS
D. DISSIPATED
600. xcool
D
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Well Stennis Space Center doesn't think TD 5 will be much of anything. They just released an email saying they'll be open for business and winds speeds of 30 – 40 mph can be expected. Winds could begin impacting the coast this evening and spread inland after midnight tonight and persisting through Friday August 13, 2010. Potential for rains of 3 to 8 inches during this event.

Local coastal flooding is expected at about 3 to 5 feet above normal
tides.


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri
ummm no polls please
Quoting weatherman12345:
QUICK POLL
5PM UPDATE TD5
A.30 MPH TD
B.35 MPH TD
C.40 MPH TS
D. DISSIPATED


60% A

40% D
Quoting efallon28:


I live in Ft. Myers, been watching radar all day, and I really don't see what you're talking about. The clouds have been dissipating and it's gotten much sunnier here in the last 2 hours. The storms offshore are consistantly moving N to NE. I'll keep looking though.


I'm on the Cape and we have gotten band after band all day. No clearing here.
Quoting btwntx08:
ummm no polls please


There is nothing wrong with polls, I do them all the time. Just skip over it if you dont like it, Rob.
606. JLPR2
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.
I am in the cape as well...we have seen several bands this morning (SE CC) it IS sunny here atm, but clouds are in the distance rolling in again.
Quoting RainyEyes:
Link


That is the local radar for ft myers


Unfortunately it is right between two NWS WSR-88D installations (Tampa and Key West) instead of near one...
Quoting JLPR2:
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.


We have half of a surface circulation present.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


SW Mississippi. Hancock County....
612. srada
Quoting Levi32:


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.



It was the biggest evacuation ever for a hurricane..4 states I believe because of the uncertainty of landfall..thats why you cant take these storms projected paths for certain..they have a "mind" of their own
Every storm dosent wind up in the great GOM believe or not, You are right that patterns can change which can be expected but thats not what it's setting up to be, the point was SE coast getting hit by a storm, not the GOM.

I don't think you understood the video the video. He showed that in years where that pattern set up that both the SE Coast and regions in the Northern Gulf Coast in that pattern.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


Mississippi/Louisiana line near I-10.
TD5....Poof!
Quoting CapeObserver:


I'm on the Cape and we have gotten band after band all day. No clearing here.


I noticed that there has been a band set up (training) on the east coast for some time now. Here is Northern Pinellas I'll be we have had less than .2" today.
617. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


We have half of a surface circulation present.


If we get the other half then we have something. XD
But as of now just a wind shift.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well hello everyone!
Seems td5 and 93L dont want to do much as of now since both look worse than yesterday.
The only one that looks better is the wave east of the islands.


But not much going on on the surface.


Your kidding right?

Quoting RainyEyes:
I am in the cape as well...we have seen several bands this morning (SE CC) it IS sunny here atm, but clouds are in the distance rolling in again.


I'm in the N Cape, close to Pine Island. I see those darker clouds too.
DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY this been going on all year long with depressions and with invests... we are going to have this year 25 invests and ten depressions only two hurricanes only six tropical storms
Quoting angiest:


Unfortunately it is right between two NWS WSR-88D installations (Tampa and Key West) instead of near one...


No, that's the local long range Doppler used by the NBC affiliate, not one of the NWS stations. It's more accurate than the looking at the Tampa or Key West ones for our area, that's for sure. But if there were a spin "just off the coast", you'd see it on there.
623. Jax82
One thing is for sure. We'll have Danielle by the end of September ;)
This seems like it is setting up to be The Year of the Upper Level Lows:0
Hey guys, i've been lurking the blogs for about 4 years now, learned alot, and also heard a lot of bs. Buy hey, with the good comes the bad right? I've taken my experience, and created a small amateur hurricane website called South Florida Hurricane Center, a friend and i have really put a lot of hours and effort into making that website, so i hope you check it out. Thanks to all of you over the years for sharing your insights, and thoughts about the tropics. I've grown from a clueless citizen to a pretty knowledgeable individual when it comes to the tropics thanks to this blog.
Quoting StormW:




I can see what hes talking about but I don't think they go hand in hand all the time.
Yeah I know JLPR, too bad. Anyways it looks like 93L's circulation has relocated to the east at around 50W and 25N.
Quoting Grecojdw:
This seems like it is setting up to be The Year of the Upper Level Lows:0


Agreed. The year of the ULL's, dry air and things will pop soon.
630. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your kidding right?



Nope, the circulation has opened up, its in between those two blobs.
No west winds, circulation supposed to be near 55W.
631. xcool
2010 ULL YEAR
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)


people on here really need to get a clue...just cause the clouds on any form of satellite imagery have a circular look to them does NOT make them a TD, TS or hurricane. And just cause its an invest does not mean TC formation is imminent. Many invests are numbered every season that never amount to anything, as a matter of fact the majority of most invests are nothing more than that, an invest. Wishing, repeating yourself, or any other form of hyping or HNC bashing will NOT case the clouds to majically and miraculously form into a TC.

Rant on...
Quoting angiest:


Along those lines, the upper Texas coast (roughly from Freeport to Sabine Pass) still hasn't taken a direct hit from a major since Alicia, since Ike wasn't technically a major... (I fully expect at some point they will eventually reclassify him).


Ike actually did strengthen to a Cat 3 major just prior to landfall near Galveston Bay.

And ...what about Hurricane Rita in 2005, which hit Sabine Pass with 130mph winids??


Anthony


I think the newly forming COC of TD5 is located at roughly 83.5W, and 27.0N
608. weatherman12345 6:52 PM GMT on August 11, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
ummm no polls please

shush, either you answer it or you keep quiet

dude im asking nicely no need to get mad
Quoting srada:


It was the biggest evacuation ever for a hurricane..4 states I believe because of the uncertainty of landfall..thats why you cant take these storms projected paths for certain..they have a "mind" of their own
I'm kinda hoping NHC has improved the forecast skills enough to bring this down to two states. That depends on size, too, of course, as well as trajectory. I keep thinking about Donna...
639. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Yeah I know JLPR, too bad. Anyways it looks like 93L's circulation has relocated to the east at around 50W and 25N.


Mid level circulation.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
3:00 AM JST August 12 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Dianmu (992 hPa) located at 37.0N 133.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 41.0N 142.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 46.8N 153.1E - Extratropical
Quoting JLPR2:


Mid level circulation.


Could be going to the surface, given there are favorable conditions within this area. Also an upper level anticyclone is over this circulation.
At the end of this Doppler Radar loop you will see Tropical Storm Fay turn into a broad low pressure system similar to Tropical Depression 5.

Except TD-5 is much broader.
D!!!!!
646. xcool


GFS WEST .
647. JLPR2
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


Could be going to the surface, given there are favorable conditions within this area. Also an upper level anticyclone is over this circulation.


That is a possibility.
Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, the circulation has opened up, its in between those two blobs.
No west winds, circulation supposed to be near 55W.

shos only half of it xD
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Both were two's at landfall.
650. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Well now LOL, it seems obvious something is going on to Td5's east.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Rita didn't make landfall in Texas, but rather just across the border in LA. ;) And as stated, Ike was not technically a major.
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Ahhhh....Rita in 2005??? Ike in 2008?? They weren't majors??




Rita made its landfall on the LA/TX border as a Cat 3.

Ike was a Cat 2 at Landfall.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)




96 hours and 192 hours are very different....that gives the illusion that it's the same system when it isn't. The ECMWF is showing the one over western Africa while the GFS is showing the one over SW Sudan.
Quoting efallon28:


No, that's the local long range Doppler used by the NBC affiliate, not one of the NWS stations. It's more accurate than the looking at the Tampa or Key West ones for our area, that's for sure. But if there were a spin "just off the coast", you'd see it on there.


Exactly, I was looking for the closest NWS radar so I could pull it up in grlevel3. :)
Quoting Levi32:


It was a big storm like Srada pointed out, but a Cat 2 at landfall, not a major.



Huge storm, brought TS gusts to Miami and it was that far away. No rain, just a lot of wind. I actually went outside to play basketball as it made its closest approach. Had to stop after a bit though, too much dirt got into my eyes.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Where is Stennis Space Center? I can't remember. TIA
Sheri


Stennis Space Center is off I-10 about 40 minutes West of Gulfport, MS. ANN NASA rocket engines have been tested here since the first Saturn rockets were used. Big US Navy / NOAA weather research center here as well . . .
Quoting btwntx08:

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON

walton never heard of him before also way too consertative also i heard what ike ike not dumm gfs shows something u saw it wrong again
Walton's been writing TWDs [Tropical Weather Discussions] for years. These are just as useful in their way as TWOs, and sometimes more informative about the general situation. He never struck me as being particularly conservative.
658. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

shos only half of it xD


True, for ASCAT to catch a system completely we need a miracle XD
But seeing half of it gives us a good idea on how it is, still no west winds on the south side and its obvious on visible images, the circulation isn't as defined as yesterday.
Getting very dark here in PC and winds went from a nice brisk breeze to blustery. I did get my laps in the pool in and the Greyhound a bath though.
It's very clear from this loop that the former site of TD5, SW of Tampa, is trying to regenerate from the top down. Does anyone have an opinion on the likelihood of that will happening.

Link
Quoting Levi32:


96 hours and 192 hours are very different....that gives the illusion that it's the same system when it isn't. The ECMWF is showing the one over western Africa while the GFS is showing the one over SW Sudan.


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well now LOL, it seems obvious something is going on to Td5's east.


Yes it certainly does, this was the Caribbean Sea surface trough that was trying to get going about three days ago with a Marco like appearance with strong not persistent convection. I think it is primarily at the surface which should really help development.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agreed. The year of the ULL's, dry air and things will pop soon.


Ya. What's the deal with all the ULL's in the zone this year anyway. Maybe I just haven't payed close attention in years past.
rita was a cat 3 at landfall
I love how when storms become ill formed some people still see "new LLCs" popping everywhere (under the bed even??). A bit of a Rorschach test eh?
Quoting JLPR2:


Nope, the circulation has opened up, its in between those two blobs.
No west winds, circulation supposed to be near 55W.
It's also really obvious on the latest vorticity map, which shows... well nothing for 93L. I thought it was pretty weird myself.

93L WV

Quoting SugaCane:


Ya. What's the deal with all the ULL's in the zone this year anyway. Maybe I just haven't payed close attention in years past.


ULL's seems to affecting more storms in the early stages in their formation than years past. Seems that every system this year had to contend with a ULL in the early part of its life. What seems to be not happening as much this year is well formed storms coming into contact with a ULL like Hanna in 08.
668. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's also really obvious on the latest vorticity map, which shows... well nothing for 93L. I thought it was pretty weird myself.

93L WV



It does show something, seems to be related to that spin you just posted.
Quoting ElConando:


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.


Reaching down the line is what forecasting is all about. I'm not saying it will happen but to watch it. We only have one other potential area to watch next week so there is nothing else to look for. The pattern is setting up to be one where we look for development regardless of what the model shows....and I only traced it back to the Sudan wave out of curiosity. Of course it's crazy, but after all, I am crazy.
Quoting ElConando:


Sometimes I feel that we are really reaching down the line with some of these potential systems. Feels kinda weird to me, talking about a potential Tropical system currently over Sudan.
2-3 years ago u couldn't find imagery to look at a AEW over Sudan....
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF through August 21st...


Eastern ATL view on the 12Z ECMWF...


Ike take a look at Levis video. Scary stuff
could t.d.4 split and become 2 separate systems? i see a nice spin south of Pensacola fl. and it kind of looks like the convection to the se is trying to spin something up. if anyone can elaborate on this for me i would be very thankful:)
I have a question. what is the circulation just off the western florida panhandle that is producing some decent convection?

It can be seen on long range nexrad radar out of tallahasee.
This is the same spin i saw last night ejecting out from the center of TD5....
well heres to another 2 week wait for the next named storm! when we get to that time, it will be 2 MORE weeks then something could pop. Upper lows dominate this whole season! :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I had hoped to ask a similar qtn in the hurricanehaven show on Tuesday, but got back too late. I think one obvious factor is the TUTT and associated ULLs. I remember Drak a couple years ago pointing out that basically nothing happens in the ATL if that TUTT is set up right. I also remember seeing a graph / chart of some kind that illustrated why the optimum storm formation period was between 15 Aug and 15 Oct. There's info out there, but digging it up is the challenge.

uh.... let's not go there....

Hey, HJ. re-Link, pls....


Hey Baha, I don't want to risk getting banned so just take a look in my WU blog for links. Thanks!

I think the COC relocated to west of Fort Myers. Regardless of the pinpoint location it does seem to have relocated. Maybe it's just me...
Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
MNC165-111930-
/O.NEW.KMPX.TO.W.0088.100811T1912Z-100811T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WATONWAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 203 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF ST JAMES...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA
SALLE. RADAR SHOWED THE SEVERE STORM MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
ST JAMES...
ECHOLS...
GROGAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL TORNADO IS IMMINENT...
BUT WILL NOT LIKELY BE ON THE GROUND FOR A LONG TIME...OR CAUSE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 9481 4411 9472 4411 9456 4411 9455
4393 9446 4387 9473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 342DEG 6KT 4403 9465

$$







Quoting CybrTeddy:
ECMWF 12z 96 hours, look off Africa.


GFS 12z shows it (much more south)




Anything exiting the African coast that far north (around 13N and above) is most like a fish... very rare that those entities make it all the way through the Atlantic!
Quoting JLPR2:


It does show something, seems to be related to that spin you just posted.
That looks a lot better than at 0900 UTC....

I'm noting the limited vorticity with the Twave near the E Car. I would have expected it to work its way down by now...
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
I have a question. what is the circulation just off the western florida panhandle that is producing some decent convection?

It can be seen on long range nexrad radar out of tallahasee.
This is the same spin i saw last night ejecting out from the center of TD5....
lol! we must have asked at the same time. i think t.d. 4 is splitting:)
invest 91
I see TD5 has become poorly organized. Not likely to strengthen much before making landfall. Might make TS strength before landfall.
Quoting Levi32:


Reaching down the line is what forecasting is all about. I'm not saying it will happen but to watch it. We only have one other potential area to watch next week so there is nothing else to look for. The pattern is setting up to be one where we look for development regardless of what the model shows....and I only traced it back to the Sudan wave out of curiosity. Of course it's crazy, but after all, I am crazy.


LOL understood. I think it is safe to say most of us on here are crazy. I mean how many people in the world would find so much humor in weather?
Quoting sflawavedude:
well heres to another 2 week wait for the next named storm! when we get to that time, it will be 2 MORE weeks then something could pop. Upper lows dominate this whole season! :)


Seems to be the case this year. Eventually we will have Danielle followed quickly by Earl.
Quoting sarahjola:
could t.d.4 split and become 2 separate systems? i see a nice spin south of Pensacola fl. and it kind of looks like the convection to the se is trying to spin something up. if anyone can elaborate on this for me i would be very thankful:)
i welcome any and all answers
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Baha, I don't want to risk getting banned so just take a look in my WU blog for links. Thanks!

I think the COC relocated to west of Fort Myers. Regardless of the pinpoint location it does seem to have relocated. Maybe it's just me...
Kewl on the links... ur not the only one thinking about the potential relocation....

It's great 2 see u in the blog, btw.... lol

Quoting sflawavedude:
well heres to another 2 week wait for the next named storm! when we get to that time, it will be 2 MORE weeks then something could pop. Upper lows dominate this whole season! :)
One can always hope, right? I tried living in that dream world before Bonnie and Colin...
Quoting Drakoen:
I see TD5 has become poorly organized. Not likely to strengthen much before making landfall. Might make TS strength before landfall.
wow look at invest 91 look good to far.
Quoting cardinal56:
Hey guys, i've been lurking the blogs for about 4 years now, learned alot, and also heard a lot of bs. Buy hey, with the good comes the bad right? I've taken my experience, and created a small amateur hurricane website called South Florida Hurricane Center, a friend and i have really put a lot of hours and effort into making that website, so i hope you check it out. Thanks to all of you over the years for sharing your insights, and thoughts about the tropics. I've grown from a clueless citizen to a pretty knowledgeable individual when it comes to the tropics thanks to this blog.

Nice Web Page...WU Mail me...


on topic now...
Broken Clouds 90°F
Feels Like: 96°
Wind Chill: 90° Ceiling: 6300
Heat Index: 96° Visibility: 10mi
Dew Point: 72° Wind: 7mph
Humidity: 55% Direction: 80° (E)
Pressure: 29.85" Gusts: NA
Report Text: KPNS 111900Z 08006KT 10SM SCT045 BKN065 32/22 A2985 RMK AO2
first of all its td 5 not td 4 also there is a good vorticity wsw of tampa but nothing sse of pensacola
Ya know, I see a lot of wish/down casting which in turn brings arguing from mostly adults that are either professional Mets or newbies like myself.

I think Doc and Storm do a pretty good job of laying it all out there.

But here is a link that gives a real simple explanation of formation, climatology, etc...

So if these guys get it right, cant we all live a little more peaceable with each other? I dont rattle Levi's, Reeds, or IKE's cage when I disagree. I really wish all this wishcast/downcast drama would dissipate never to reform. ;-) I say that with all the love a newbie can put together.

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
2-3 years ago u couldn't find imagery to look at a AEW over Sudan....


Very true. In fact I have yet to see Radar loops of central and NW Africa.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SOUTH DAYTONA...PORT ORANGE...HOLLY
HILL...DAYTONA BEACH...


* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

* AT 301 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN OCCURRING IN EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY. SEVERAL RAIN SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER THE AREA THE PAST HOUR AND MORE SHOWERS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE TOWARD THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.

I see nothing in the radar from Tampa or Key West to indicate a new LLC forming. Granted, I am having to use the 248NM scan to look in the area some bloggers were thinking, and even then I may not have enough range depending on how far west I need to look...
Hmmmm.... thinking about what's coming up in the context of climatology, the Bahamas has in the past gotten a brush from storm #4 [D] and a licking from storm #6 [F] in the years where we can expect 2 storms. After that, 9 & 10 have been bad numbers....

With the ULL blazing westward at warp speed, if, and its a pretty good if, there is any kind of spin under the convection off of the central fl west coast, it would find itself in an improving upper level environment. Furthermore, it would delay landfall and I would think move more westerly.
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:

there is a heavy wall of shear just to its west....this wont amount much
Quoting sarahjola:
lol! we must have asked at the same time. i think t.d. 4 is splitting:)


lol, yea we did. It is TD5 btw. It seems to be traking west at a decent clip and should make "landfall" somewhere between NO and mobile, so it has some more time over water but i doubt its stacked and won't develop much.

look at the nice circulation on long range nexrad out of red bay(TAL) all you folks looking for a LLC out of the cluster near tampa
699. xcool
5PM warningsBE drop .
Quoting StormChaser81:
At the end of this Doppler Radar loop you will see Tropical Storm Fay turn into a broad low pressure system similar to Tropical Depression 5.

Except TD-5 is much broader.


What a vicious TS Faye was! One of the most notable Tropical Storms I can remember.
Well, something passed right over bouy 42039. Either that or the anemometer needs a tune up.
BTWN No. ignore me then.it would make you and me feel better. :):)

Too bad bp had to stop with the relief well work again due to this system. it needs to get done to where they can focus on coastal cleanup and payouts.
Quoting btwntx08:
first of all its td 5 not td 4 also there is a good vorticity wsw of tampa but nothing sse of pensacola
sorry didn't mean to offend by making a simple mistake about the t.d. number. i don't think there is a spin sse of Pensacola, i think its s. of Pensacola. se was referring to the convection below what i see s. of Pensacola. thanks for the answer
Quoting ElConando:


Very true. In fact I have yet to see Radar loops of central and NW Africa.
I have a feeling most W African radar is airport or military, and that most governments aren't in as much of a position to make radar findings available on the WWW to the extent that the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are... I'm glad we have the satviews now that we didn't before.
693. Did not know about that law. Though I guess I have been following it pretty well.
Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect and please get rid of ur simileys it annoying
i love how this guy tells you that you are wrong and never supplies any reasons why.
Quoting sarahjola:
sorry didn't mean to offend by making a simple mistake about the t.d. number. i don't think there is a spin sse of Pensacola, i think its s. of Pensacola. se was referring to the convection below what i see s. of Pensacola. thanks for the answer


You'd probably be happier just ignoring him. I made the mistake of taking him off my ignore list but I think I might need to fix that.
Quoting OpusDei:
I love how when storms become ill formed some people still see "new LLCs" popping everywhere (under the bed even??). A bit of a Rorschach test eh?
well if there looking for stuff under the bed we might have a problem
710. 7544
looks like the bahamma blob is trying to gain new conv. looking good for the island wave to the east who gets to be 95l first ?

note low shear in thge bahmmas area
NOUS42 KNHC 111900
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT WED 11 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-073 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --AMENDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A.ALL TASKING FOR THE AIR FORCE ON TD-05
WAS CANX BY NHC AT 11/1830Z.
B. NOAA IS STILL PLANNING TO FLY SEVERAL
RESEARCH MISSONS THAT WERE ON TCPOD 10-072.
Quoting sarahjola:
sorry didn't mean to offend by making a simple mistake about the t.d. number. i don't think there is a spin sse of Pensacola, i think its s. of Pensacola. se was referring to the convection below what i see s. of Pensacola. thanks for the answer

oops i thought sse was the same with s anyways its just a vortex left over nothing much..sry about the td # correction im not myself again today
The Central Atlantic Tropical Triangle!

Quoting ElConando:
693. Did not know about that law. Though I guess I have been following it pretty well.
Kinda hard not to, given the ridiculous way rain falls in FL - 1 minute absolute dry, the next, the deluge that created the Flood.... lol
Is 93L the longest Invest ever?
sry all im having a bad day kristina u accepted my apologize over a month ago somethings it happens plz forgive me
Sorry to be pedantic, but only one M in BahaMas....

Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a feeling most W African radar is airport or military, and that most governments aren't in as much of a position to make radar findings available on the WWW to the extent that the US, Canada, Europe and Japan are... I'm glad we have the satviews now that we didn't before.


That is probably the case. Not many fully democratic nations in Africa either. I doubt those countries have the luxury to consider providing it.
Quoting btwntx08:
sry all im having a bad day kristina u accepted my apologize over a month ago somethings it happens plz forgive me


OK
Radar est approaching 6". Also the sky is getting very dark as the ECSB is approaching north Orlando. It looks as if we are in for a big one today.
The wave at approx 55 15n is firing off some convection and doesn't look that bad. Yellow circle, but who knows. 93L down to orange. . . one seems to be the worlds longest lasting invest. lol
723. xcool
HA
Quoting btwntx08:
for feeling bad again today i bang myself with my head 5 times
wow thats deep
not playing scott i did for real just now
Surface/Mid level circulation developing or reforming near 27.4N/84.6W. Convection is beginning to take more of a counter clockwise spin to it moving wnw now getting away from land and could rapidly develop given developing anticyclonic winds aloft, warm SSTs, a moistening environment and a strong mid to low level circulation developing, towards DMAX tomorrow morning, if it shows no signs by then, then its RIP TD5.
728. SLU
This is certainly too weak to be called a TD based on the "hurricane manual". I'm definitely up for downgrading at 21z.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Kinda hard not to, given the ridiculous way rain falls in FL - 1 minute absolute dry, the next, the deluge that created the Flood.... lol


Yep have been in some bad ones in the past especially on the highway. One of the oddest adventures I had in a car dealing with rain was in a parking lot with poor drainage a couple years back. Not that there were any floating cars but lets just say some people had the brilliant idea of trying to a flooded parking lot doing 15 to 20mph and paid the price.
Quoting StormW:
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />


Why is the COC is a pool of dry air? And could a new COC develop farther southeast as the current COC makes landfall in Louisiana?
Quoting Clearwater1:
The wave at approx 55 15n is firing off some convection and doesn't look that bad. Yellow circle, but who knows. 93L down to orange. . . one seems to be the worlds longest lasting invest. lol

I can see the 55w 15n wave going up to 20% at 8pm and possible invest status as convection is improving.
Quoting StormW:
img src="
i think its just to hot sst's atomsphere too hot when something gives its going to be big
Quoting angiest:


Rita didn't make landfall in Texas, but rather just across the border in LA. ;) And as stated, Ike was not technically a major.


Actually, Rita made landfall at the mouth of the Sabine River, the center of which is the border dividing Texas from Louisiana. Rita made landfall between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 02:38 CDT on September 24, 2005 as a Category 3 Hurricane with winds at 115 mph. It was directly on the border of the two states. I will agree Louisiana got the worst of it.
Quoting SLU:
This is certainly too weak to be called a TD based on the "hurricane manual". I'm definitely up for downgrading at 21z.



I don't even know what to call it at this point but a very broad low. Dissipation seem fairly immanent to me as well.
i see 93L pop up a little friend to its sw
What the? Did 93L just split in two? I see a nearly-stationary area of intense storms under a weak LLC around 23N 58W, and a very well-defined but storm-deprived LLC headed northeast at 25.8N 50W.
Hey Storm or Levi..

Do u think this TD5 might be stalling or getting to that point? also I been looking at some models and some of them have td5 hit land then come back to the Gulf.. What do you both think the probability of that happening? thx if u do answer..
Storm, Do you see TD5 pulling itself back together at all before landfall??
739. JavPR

it's been raining a lot for the past two days in Western PR...yesterday there were a big amount of thunderstorm activity....
Quoting btwntx08:

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/WALTON

walton never heard of him before also way too consertative also i heard what ike ike not dumm gfs shows something u saw it wrong again


She
Corey Walton
742. SLU
Quoting ElConando:


I don't even know what to call it at this point but a very broad low. Dissipation seem fairly immanent to me as well.


I'll be embarrassed if they keep it as a TD at 5pm. lol
Quoting cheetaking:
What the? Did 93L just split in two? I see a nearly-stationary area of intense storms under a weak LLC around 23N 58W, and a very well-defined but storm-deprived Low-Mid level swirl headed northeast at 25.8N 50W.


Storms are developing over the COC near 50W/28.5N. It is no longer storm deprived.
I bet that neither TD5 nor 93L will ever be named. That wave now over central Africa will become Danielle in 120 hours.
Hopefully I got this right, but this should clear things up for people if I got this right.

StormW. What is your take on the circulation just south of pensacola riding the coast. It appears to me judging by the flow around it that this is where a big fat L should be placed on the map....
740:well sorry i didnt know "she" hardly never see that name before on th two
Post 745...Why all the Anger?
Quoting cheetaking:
What the? Did 93L just split in two? I see a nearly-stationary area of intense storms under a weak LLC around 23N 58W, and a very well-defined but storm-deprived LLC headed northeast at 25.8N 50W.


Who knows, maybe a Fujiwara will occur, and one component will develop into a cat. 1 before hitting Greenland.
Quoting JavPR:

it's been raining a lot for the past two days in Western PR...yesterday there were a big amount of thunderstorm activity....


The Central Atlantic Triangle is VERY apparent...and the system near 25N, 50W looks like Bonnie. WHY did the NHC downgrade it to medium-risk on the TWO?!
although the ingredients in the MDR are all in place for an explosive season thereis something which i cannot fathom that is preventing all these invsets depressins or tropical storms from being properly organised and to prove the forecasters right. tropical meteorology after all is not that easy too many variables
Quoting StormW:


The ULL has helped to pull in a lot of dry air.

Hard to say about whether or not another COC could form SE. Right now, that area appears to be mid level.


I keep waiting for that blow up in the SE to move, and maybe it is, but it looks like it's just sitting there...stubbornly refusing to tag along with the rest of that mess. ;)
Does anyone has a image or loop of inside Africa to see that wave that has been mentioned located in Central Africa?
this one could be the one

CV AOI
img src="http://" alt="" />
Quoting StormW:


I think it's gonna be close to the coast when it does. Looks like it's trying to slowly organize now...but being such a large circulation, it will take time to consolidate.


Thanks. If what Stormchaser81 is right with his graphic showing the center, it doesn't look that far off from the center (at least part of it) making landfall. Is his graphic accurate?
IMO, subtropical hurricanes CAN develop. Hurricane Karl in 1980 developed from the center of a cold-core extratropical storm before turning subtropical.

has 93L split and become 2 separate entities?
Quoting btwntx08:
750:i wasnt angry there got a problem???


Please, try to keep the negativity off the blog...
763. xcool
ALL models did good job on tD5 & rip td5
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone has a image or loop of inside Africa to see that wave that has been mentioned located in Central Africa?


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this one could be the one

CV AOI
img src="http://" alt="" />


CYCLONIC CONVECTION INVADING THE SOUTHERN SAHARA. OVER.
Quoting stoormfury:
although the ingredients in the MDR are all in place for an explosive season thereis something which i cannot fathom that is preventing all these invsets depressins or tropical storms from being properly organised and to prove the forecasters right. tropical meteorology after all is not that easy too many variables



The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
This is crazy... I really think this thing split in two. It looks like the old area of convection split off and developed its own surface low, and now the old LLC is firing up intensely. We could end up with two storms out of this one.

This visible loop is wild...
NOAA 93L Visible Floater
Quoting StormW:


One way to tell (which is why I placed the "L" on the satellite pic) is if you go to the RGB loop, look at the lower cloud deck. Notice how the lower clouds over FL. are moving toward the NW, and then backing and coming down over LA. Then south of the system, you can see how they are coming up from the WSW. You can see where they"meet".

rgb loop



Thank you

Its little bits of education that you save and one day it all adds up.

I guess in your case you have a huge bank? LOL
Hey Storm or Levi..

Do u think this TD5 might be stalling or getting to that point? also I been looking at some models and some of them have td5 hit land then come back to the Gulf.. What do you both think the probability of that happening? thx if u do answer..

Sorry if i posted this again, but wasnt sure y'all saw it.
772. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
although the ingredients in the MDR are all in place for an explosive season thereis something which i cannot fathom that is preventing all these invsets depressins or tropical storms from being properly organised and to prove the forecasters right. tropical meteorology after all is not that easy too many variables


Well coming into the season we thought it would be a season getting off to an explosive start but it looks like a season that will conform to climatology whereby most of the activity might occur from August 15th to October 15th similar to 1998 which is an analog year.
Quoting stormpetrol:
has 93L split and become 2 separate entities?


Indeed it has.

I would be interested to see what the temp lapse rates are currently over the Atlantic.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.
Quoting cheetaking:
This is crazy... I really think this thing split in two. It looks like the old area of convection split off and developed its own surface low, and now the old LLC is firing up intensely. We could end up with two storms out of this one.

This visible loop is wild...
NOAA 93L Visible Floater

indeed the other blob formed a llc
TD5 continues to become better organized, still very broad but the rubber band look is now an oval look, symmetrical.
We have twins?


I love playing two-hand touch

Eating way too much

Watching my team win

With the twins

I love quarterbacks eating dirt

Pom-poms and short skirts

Fans who wont quit

And those twins

And I love you, too!

Heres to football!
Quoting cheetaking:
This is crazy... I really think this thing split in two. It looks like the old area of convection split off and developed its own surface low, and now the old LLC is firing up intensely. We could end up with two storms out of this one.

This visible loop is wild...
NOAA 93L Visible Floater


Wow, massive convergence over the northeastern component and a circulation setting up after the collapse of the original convection. NE component drifting NE, W component drifting W. We have a co-interacting triangle in the Atlantic, and the southerly part is moving into the Caribbean, what else is new?
Quoting reedzone:
TD5 continues to become better organized, still very broad but the rubber band look is now an oval look, symmetrical.

What do you think of this wave close to the islands?
Quoting angiest:


Rita didn't make landfall in Texas, but rather just across the border in LA. ;) And as stated, Ike was not technically a major.


Actually, Rita made landfall at the mouth of the Sabine River, the center of which is the border dividing Texas from Louisiana. Rita made landfall between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 02:38 CDT on September 24, 2005 as a Category 3 Hurricane with winds at 115 mph. It was directly on the border of the two states. I will agree Louisiana got the worst of it.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

What do you think of this wave close to the islands?


Interesting, but should move into an environment where it will get squished.. accoridng to Levi.
93L has split imo to become separate 2 entities both could be TDs or TS imo.
The ECMWF and GFS develop a system off Africa in 92 hours or so.
Quoting StormW:


One way to tell (which is why I placed the "L" on the satellite pic) is if you go to the RGB loop, look at the lower cloud deck. Notice how the lower clouds over FL. are moving toward the NW, and then backing and coming down over LA. Then south of the system, you can see how they are coming up from the WSW. You can see where they"meet".

rgb loop


StormW What do you make of this wave near the Antilles ?
The HH are in TD5 now, right? What are they finding?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The Central Atlantic Triangle is VERY apparent...and the system near 25N, 50W looks like Bonnie. WHY did the NHC downgrade it to medium-risk on the TWO?!
It fell apart.
hmmmm.... well gang, so far up to now conditions haven't been favorable since Alex. Everything, invest, depressions just can't get it together. If you would of told me in May we would only have 3 named storms on the 11th of August I would of slept through June and July and the first week of August.
Quoting btwntx08:
for feeling bad again today i bang myself with my head 5 times


I would suggest against doing that anymore. It's apparent you've done it too much already.
789. 7544
iz 93ls twin moving west
Quoting Tropicaddict:
The HH are in TD5 now, right? What are they finding?


i think they gave up and went home
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ORANGE...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

* AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 7
MILES SOUTH OF PORT ORANGE...OR NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPRUCE CREEK...HARBOR OAKS AND ALLANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH GROUND AND BECOME TORNADOES.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


A right hook followed by a left jab then a right ear bite...


...and he still won't post his source about Watts.

If it's his own opinion, fine.

If he's taking info from a site, claiming it as his own and not giving proper credit, well, they have a name for that...

793. xcool
recon what home
794. flsky
Tornado warning in SDB right now.
795. Prgal
Quoting reedzone:


Interesting, but should move into an environment where it will get squished.. accoridng to Levi.


I saw Levi's video and it was great but according to this page, that blob should pass north of the islands. Link

Quoting swlavp:
Post 745...Why all the Anger?


Post 745? I Don't See a Post 745...
Better and better...but will it hold? Click the image for full-size. (P.S.--the little island near the lower left is Barbados.)

Ok, but can someone tell me what the circulation is visible on long range nexrad RADAR out of RED BAY(tallahassee) . this is not a broad circulation....
Just a little quiz here....

What year did we go the longest before having the first hurricane?

What year were there no hurricanes?
Does anybody think TD5 is still TD5?
Quoting cheetaking:


This visible loop is wild...
NOAA 93L Visible Floater

Wow, that is wild! You can easily see the energy transfer from one area over to the other! :O
Some areas of Port Orange approaching 8". WOW!
New blog, guys.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ORANGE...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

* AT 401 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 7
MILES SOUTH OF PORT ORANGE...OR NEAR NEW SMYRNA BEACH...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SPRUCE CREEK...HARBOR OAKS AND ALLANDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN TOUCH GROUND AND BECOME TORNADOES.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
IMO, subtropical hurricanes CAN develop. Hurricane Karl in 1980 developed from the center of a cold-core extratropical storm before turning subtropical.



Sure, the perfect storm was also an example of a "subtropical hurricane" as was Hurricane Vince in 2005.

The debate on it comes from the fact that subtropical cyclones aren't supposed to have wind maxima close to the center, which is a characteristic generally reserved for tropical cyclones. However, if you have such a storm like Karl, Grace, or Vince with wind maxima near the center and the structure of a tropical cyclone, yet it's cold-core aloft, you can't call it fully tropical. There are several different ways you can have a subtropical cyclone which is why even having the term is controversial.
808. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The ECMWF and GFS develop a system off Africa in 92 hours or so.


Well there seems so be some kind of system there but perhaps develop might be too strong a word to use.

The ECMWF takes the system almost due northwards immediately after it gets its toes in the water.
I know 1914 had no hurricanes, I just saw that graphic yesterday, it had 1 lone TS
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Just a little quiz here....

What year did we go the longest before having the first hurricane?

What year were there no hurricanes?
So much for the update Dr. M. was supposed to give us between 3-4 p.m. I guess there wasn't much to talk about.
I see an elongated funnel like circulation of TD5 forming now west of Tampa, which indicates to me the entire system is slowly getting better organized, it did look like two seperate circulations consolidating to me.
812. xcool
newwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog
813. xcool
new blog
Quoting gbreezegirl:
So much for the update Dr. M. was supposed to give us between 3-4 p.m. I guess there wasn't much to talk about.


See post #804.
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

What do you think of this wave close to the islands?


StormW or Levi....I noticed a lot of convection generated today in the system near 55W but at the same time seems that the ULL over Puerto Rico is pulling all that convection way north from the main circulation. Can we expect a strong rain event in the islands or dou you think that the system could develop into something stronger? Appreciate your response.
I'm still stymied as to why we are seeing so much development of these systems by day in contrast to by night...
Quoting Jeff9641:
Some areas of Port Orange approaching 8". WOW!


Even with Tornado Warning
Levi and Storm W, I agree with ya'll about the east coast being a target this year for a possible hurricane hit. You both have tought me so much in the past 2 years reading and absorbing your knowledge. I live in Summerville/Charleston,SC and remember Hugo slamming into Charleston in 1989. We also had a major snowstorm on Dec. 24 of that year too. Looking forward to learning more and maybe representing my beautiful "lowcountry" on this blog.
new blog
Hey there everybody! The area around 57W-59W is now extremely suspect. Not one but 2 systems are present there at once. Our yellow circle to the south, and the new addition that 93L has just appeared to have "added".Photobucket
Quoting Goldenblack:
fallins...

You are a genius, why doesn't everyone just listen to you! I have no idea why you are here, where all of us know littles are gathered. It must be sooooooo annoying for you to be sooooooo right all the time......just post and post and post and *sigh* no one gets it......lol


he writes in quatrains.
Quoting btwntx08:
sry all im having a bad day kristina u accepted my apologize over a month ago somethings it happens plz forgive me


i will forgive you but admit i was thinking gosh, there are a lot bigger fish to fry here than smiley faces :)
Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

What do you think of this wave close to the islands?


it is very red! and there is a green blob around bermuda that has developed a face like the man in the moon. or is it.... SATAN
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
I know 1914 had no hurricanes, I just saw that graphic yesterday, it had 1 lone TS


But that was before satellite, so we don't know how many never hit land.
OK. Here's the second part of my futzing about with Klotzbach's table of La Nina years correlated to date of 2nd hurricane formation. This table references 16 La Nina years from 1950 to 2009 and gives the date of formation of the second hurricane and the seasonal ACE for each year.

I collated some additional data relating to these 16 seasons, then looked for additional trends. I gathered information about the formation date of the FINAL storm in each of these seasons, the total number of named storms, and the total number of major hurricanes.

Final Hurricane Formation Date

The formation date for the final storm of the selected seasons ranged from 4 Oct to 9 Dec, and the mean formation date was 3 November. 9 of the 16, or 56.5%, formed on or after 1 November. [NOTE: while I did not record dissipation dates, many storms forming after 20 Oct continued into November.] 67% of seasons with above-average ACE ended with a storm that formed after 31 Oct; the average date was 4 Nov. Again, 1995 fell into the anomalous category, with its 19th storm forming on 27 Oct.

Total Number of Named Storms

As has been presented in other research, La Nina seasons tend to have above average numbers of named storms. The average of these 16 seasons is 11.81, which can be rounded to 12. The smallest number is 8, seen in the 1956 and 1973 seasons, and of course 1995 has the largest, 19. Interestingly enough, seasons with above average ACE only averaged 0.97 more storms than the sample mean, though they did see 2.21 more storms on average than the 10.57 mean of years that had average and below average ACE. However, even storms with average and below average ACE beat the seasonal average of named storms.

Total Number of Major Storms

For the La Nina years Kotzbach focused on, number of major hurricanes varied from 1 to 8 per season. There was a high correlation between seasonal ACE and number of major storms; average and below average seasons [seven] had a mean of 1.86 cat 3 - 5 hurricanes, while the above 100 ACE seasons averaged 5 major storms. The mean across the set was 3.86 major hurricanes per season. Only one high ACE season, 1954, had fewer than three major hurricanes, and every below 100 ACE season except 1971 and 1973 had at least two major storms.

I'm adding some final conclusions and observations to this stuff in my blog... eventually. I'll post a comment about it when I'm done...
Conclusions and Observations from Klotzbach's Chart and My Extension Thereof

1. Anybody who expects 12 - 15 named storms this year is well within the climatology. Anybody who expects 19 likely believes there are some climatologically anomolous conditions which would predispose the basin towards much higher than average activity levels, both in term of named storms and in terms of ACE.

2. We can reasonably expect the season to last beyond 1 Nov, regardless of number of named storms and / or ACE. One low ACE season had 15 named storms; another initiated its final storm on 9 Dec.

3. There seems to be no immediately obvious correlation between number of storms and number of major hurricanes. 1950 and 1973 both had 13 named storms; both had their second hurricane form on 20 Aug; both seasons ended in mid-Oct [18th and 16th respectively]. 1950 had eight majors; 1973 had one.

I'm sure there are other things to think about from this data. But it is interesting to note that five of the 7 low or average ACE years took place between 1970 and 1975...
Quoting robj144:


But that was before satellite, so we don't know how many never hit land.


Exactly. As I recall from reading as well as listening to a well-respected hurricane expert (Dr. Neil Frank), seasons before the advent of satellites are likely to have had multiple missed storms because they formed too far east and never ventured far enough west to be reported. The 1933 season is, I believe, through to have had somewhere between 3 and 5 more storms than officially reported. Additionally, small storms like Marco, even forming in well-traveled waters, may have been missed. I seriously doubt 1914 had a lone tropical cyclone like the official record indicates.