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Tropical Depression Fifteen forms in the Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2010

Tropical Depression Fifteen is here, and is destined to become Tropical Storm Matthew by late this afternoon or this evening. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft left the storm near 2pm EDT this afternoon, and on their final pass through the strong northeast quadrant of the storm, found a substantial area of surface winds of 40 - 45 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top flight level winds at 500 feet were 48 mph. These winds support upgrading TD 15 to Tropical Storm Matthew. Satellite loops show that TD 15's heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase in intensity and areal coverage, with several respectable low-level spiral bands in evidence. There is some dry air to the northwest of TD 15, but it is currently not significantly affecting development.


Figure 1. TD 15 at 11:50am EDT 9/23/10, as seen by NASA's Terra satellite.

Forecast for TD 15
An upper-level high pressure system lies to the west of TD 15, near the coast of Nicaragua. The clockwise flow of air around this high will bring a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over TD 15 today and Friday. There is some dry continental air lying to the northwest of TD 15, and this shear may be able to drive dry air into the storm, slowing intensification and keeping TD 15 below hurricane strength through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, TD 15 will move more underneath this upper-level high, causing the shear to decline. The SHIPS model forecasts that shear will fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. This drop in shear should allow for intensification of TD 15 into a hurricane, if the center stays more than 50 miles offshore.

The future track and intensity of TD 15 depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If TD 15 misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday, as indicated in the official NHC forecast. However, if TD 15 spends significant time over or barely offshore of Honduras, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. TD 15 is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause TD 15 to slow and turn more to the north. TD 15 will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of TD 15 spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains mostly over land, TD 15 will still generate extremely heavy rains over Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out, allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force TD 15 westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing TD 15 northwards across Western Cuba and into Florida. A complicating factor may be the development of a new tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now, as predicted by both the GFS and NOGAPS models with their latest 12Z (8am EDT) runs. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of TD 15 are high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that determine how much time the storm spends over land. One thing that is virtually certain is that TD 15 will generate very heavy rains over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Friday through Tuesday that will cause dangerous flooding rains and life-threatening mudslides.

Tropical Depression Lisa
Tropical Depression Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Saturday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remnants of Hurricane Julia are still spinning over the far Eastern Atlantic, and are generating some sporadic heavy thunderstorm to the north of the center of circulation. Julia's remains are being given a 10% chance of re-developing by NHC.

Hurricane Karl's moisture causing flooding in Minnesota, Wisconsin
A plume of very moist air associated with what was Hurricane Karl last week has surged northwards over the Central U.S. over the past two days. This moisture is now being lifted over a warm front draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has generated flooding rains in excess of six inches in southern Minnesota this afternoon. Flood warnings and flood watches are posted for a wide swath of the upper Midwest today, including most of southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula. These types of rain events are called Predecessor Rain Events (PREs), because they typically precede the actual arrival of the rain shield of a tropical storm.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall over Minnesota.

Next post
I'll have an update on TD 15 Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
L 95 21st Sept. 2010
L 95 21st Sept. 2010
Neighbors help a driver to move his vehicle from the flood waters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tropical StormMathew's heading had turned westward to (10.9degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of (9.6degrees west of) WestNorthWest
TS.Mathew's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression15
23Sep 06pmGMT - - 13.9n76.2w - - 35mph - - -1007mb - - NHC.Adv.#1
TD.15 becomes TS.Mathew
23Sep 09pmGMT - - 14.0n76.9w - - 40mph - - - 1006mb - - #2
24Sep 12amGMT - - 14.2n77.7w - - 40mph - - - 1005mb - - #2A
24Sep 03amGMT - - 14.0n78.4w - - 45mph - - - 1005mb - - #3
24Sep 06amGMT - - 14.2n79.3w - - 40mph - - - 1005mb - - #3A
24Sep 09amGMT - - 14.3n79.8w - - 50mph - - - 1000mb - - #4

Copy&paste 13.9n76.2w, 14.0n76.9w-14.2n77.7w, 14.2n77.7w-14.0n78.4w, 14.0n78.4w-14.2n79.3w, 14.2n79.3w-14.3n79.8w, pnd, trb, nbw, vqs, 14.3n79.8w-14.96n83.23w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~20hours from now to CaboViejo,Nicaragua

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
2502. Gearsts
LinkWOW GFS is broken :O!
2504. Gearsts
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


I wouldn't say the GFS is broken, more like it is on to something. I believe this is energy from Matthew and forming it south of Jamaica and turning it into Nicole. This could happen, depends on what Matthew does.
Sarcasm
It has been hinting at that for a while.

As has the Euro and the CMC.

It's possible that the NHC will need to tweak the forecast considerably when they get their new information. They might end up being right all along.

Why I've said since yesterday to keep an eye on the East Pacific (which was skipped over as everyone was so enarmoured with 95L) as that is the low that's travelling in a similar direction to the storm that the models depict.

If you look very carefully at the last few GFS runs, you can see how it transfers. CMC and Euro is harder to pick as it is over 12 hour segments rather than 6, but it does appear similar. You'll note that the low now wants to come over Honduras rather than the Yucatan.

That disorganised area of convection on the East Pacific side could be where the hints are. It's not ITCZ, I don't think. That's much further north according to the Surface Analysis.

Now, it's likely that low - if it forms - will dissipate. However, the energy may not. Whether it's Matthew's remnants which re-fire alone or along with the energy from the East Pacific or it's an entirely new storm (Nicole) is very hard to determine at this point in time.

It's easy to take the line that Matthew will end up being a broad low in the Gulf of Honduras, and perhaps that the easiest line is the correct one. On the other hand, it looks a bit more tricky than that.
2507. Gearsts
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


I know you didn't mean literally broken, I am just telling what I think its showing.
look at the time on that run!
2508. Gearsts
Quoting Cotillion:
It has been hinting at that for a while.

As has the Euro and the CMC.

It's possible that the NHC will need to tweak the forecast considerably when they get their new information. They might end up being right all along.

Why I've said since yesterday to keep an eye on the East Pacific (which was skipped over as everyone was so enarmoured with 95L) as that is the low that's travelling in a similar direction to the storm that the models depict.

If you look very carefully at the last few GFS runs, you can see how it transfers. CMC and Euro is harder to pick as it is over 12 hour segments rather than 6, but it does appear similar. You'll note that the low now wants to come over Honduras rather than the Yucatan.

That disorganised area of convection on the East Pacific side could be where the hints are. It's not ITCZ, I don't think. That's much further north according to the Surface Analysis.

Now, it's likely that low - if it forms - will dissipate. However, the energy may not. Whether it's Matthew's remnants which re-fire alone or along with the energy from the East Pacific or it's an entirely new storm (Nicole) is very hard to determine at this point in time.

It's easy to take the line that Matthew will end up being a broad low in the Gulf of Honduras, and perhaps that the easiest line is the correct one. On the other hand, it looks a bit more tricky than that.
LinkYea theres some vort in that area maebe it will get pull north...
Quoting Cotillion:
It has been hinting at that for a while.

As has the Euro and the CMC.

It's possible that the NHC will need to tweak the forecast considerably when they get their new information.

Why I've said since yesterday to keep an eye on the East Pacific (which was skipped over as everyone was so enarmoured with 95L) as that is the low that's travelling in a similar direction to the storm that the models depict.

If you look very carefully at the last few GFS runs, you can see how it transfers. CMC and Euro is harder to pick as it is over 12 hour segments rather than 6, but it does appear similar. You'll note that the low now wants to come over Honduras rather than the Yucatan.

That disorganised area of convection on the East Pacific side could be where the hints are. It's not ITCZ, I don't think. That's much further north according to the Surface Analysis.

Now, it's likely that low - if it forms - will dissipate. However, the energy may not. Whether it's Matthew's remnants which re-fire alone or along with the energy from the East Pacific or it's an entirely new storm (Nicole) is very hard to determine at this point in time.

It's easy to take the line that Matthew will end up being a broad low in the Gulf of Honduras, and perhaps that the easiest line is the correct one. On the other hand, it looks a bit more tricky than that.


You may definitely be on to something there; it'll definitely be interesting to see whether and how your proposed scenario plays out.

Good thinking. Oh, and good morning...
Moreover, look at the steering currents: (I'm using 990-999 as that's close enough to where he'll be likely. The one up and down from there show the same sort of thing)



Now, steering current maps, of course, change. We're talking about something that might happen around Monday (at a guess).

However, it's hardly showing a high which would block westward progression which would cause a bounce eastward (as bizarrely shown by the GFDL 12z, for example) and that's if the northward progression was also stopped.

It's unlikely. It'd come from another source.
twins? nothing i can hang my hat on yet.
Quoting Cotillion:
It has been hinting at that for a while.

As has the Euro and the CMC.

It's possible that the NHC will need to tweak the forecast considerably when they get their new information. They might end up being right all along.

Why I've said since yesterday to keep an eye on the East Pacific (which was skipped over as everyone was so enarmoured with 95L) as that is the low that's travelling in a similar direction to the storm that the models depict.

If you look very carefully at the last few GFS runs, you can see how it transfers. CMC and Euro is harder to pick as it is over 12 hour segments rather than 6, but it does appear similar. You'll note that the low now wants to come over Honduras rather than the Yucatan.

That disorganised area of convection on the East Pacific side could be where the hints are. It's not ITCZ, I don't think. That's much further north according to the Surface Analysis.

Now, it's likely that low - if it forms - will dissipate. However, the energy may not. Whether it's Matthew's remnants which re-fire alone or along with the energy from the East Pacific or it's an entirely new storm (Nicole) is very hard to determine at this point in time.

It's easy to take the line that Matthew will end up being a broad low in the Gulf of Honduras, and perhaps that the easiest line is the correct one. On the other hand, it looks a bit more tricky than that.
We should be able to see what you are describing on satellite, if it happens. Right?
2515. aquak9
GoooOOOOD Friday morning WU-Bloggers worldwide.

Neapolitan- I really like the avatar. (smiles) really. (smiles again) (blushes)

So Mathew is following the NFI model this morning. That is the NHC's "low confidence" model. still to far away for us Floridians to use the GI model.

Tick tock tick tock- where's coops and breakfast? Damnit woman a Pup has to EAT!!
2517. surfmom
*giggle* I liked the Avatar too - was too shy to say
Good Morning - was Good Mooning Aqua & ALL

looks like a great day to get the first of the beet seeds in the ground -

watching Matteo like a hawk - be nice if he hit the special box (no land) churned & croaked -- just enough to rock the bouys so some of us could ride Lady of the Gulf or King Neptune (mea culpa, pls. forgive me --sooo addicted to wave)
2518. pottery
Good Morning.
Matthew??
Pretty good-looking Fella!

Who is Coffee-Monitor, this morning??
(I vote for Surfmom)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We should be able to see what you are describing on satellite, if it happens. Right?


Possible, though as I've no idea what the part Matthew will play in it - if it does occur - it'd be harder to show which is him and which is this low (I think the NHC could be aware of it as they're talking about a developing monsoonal low over Central America) than in the case of Hermine where it was relatively straight-forward.

Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Coalition go look at the 6Z gfs! Around hour 80 you can see energy from the Pacific moving north into the Atlantic.


Coalition? That's a new one...

It's harder to see on that one. I've noticed that the non-radiosonde runs have more of a weight towards Matthew continuing as a single entity than the 00z/12z runs. Not by much, but a bit. You can just about see the energy coming over, though.
2520. surfmom
Quoting sngalla:
From the 5am...I think this says it all.

THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IT
IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

Low confidence - ompfh
I luv this (sarcastic)
well, makes for a great learning situation
steering by the seat of your pants
or INSTINCT
looks like MaNature is playing Trick or Treat a weee bit early
there's a tweak of amusement when I see humans admit -- they don't know
perhaps - humbling, wow that 4:30Am is showing up already - ODing on Caffiene LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:


You may definitely be on to something there; it'll definitely be interesting to see whether and how your proposed scenario plays out.

Good thinking. Oh, and good morning...


Well, it's already happened this year albeit not with a cyclone already there. Matthew's strength will probably play a role as you also see that nothing really ramps him up prior to hitting the Yucatan.

If he strengthens further than expected, he may just end up absorbing whatever's there and continuing on his merry way. If he's around the same weak strength as predicted, that's when the uncertainty comes in.

It's just a theory, after all.
Good morning,everyone.

Anything new with Matthew?
2524. Engine2
6z GFS @ 96
2525. surfmom
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
Coalition go look at the 6Z gfs! Around hour 80 you can see energy from the Pacific moving north into the Atlantic.
Holy Cow --this IS fascinating.....
2526. surfmom
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning,everyone.

Anything new with Matthew?

some interesting posts this page...poor head - stretching to grasp this stuff...
2528. Engine2
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
6Z GFS really wants to blow up something in 4-5 days, and I can not tell because the run is in progress but it LOOKS like it could be headed for the gulf, shooting out between the Yucatan ans Western Cuba.
Yes it pull a little back west before heading east over Florida and back inland over South Carolina/Georgia border - This is a tough one to forecast, you have to see where that cut-off low sets up shop and how strong that high pressure is to the east to see where it finds the weakness. Going to be alot of uneasy people
2529. MahFL
Quoting reedzone:
He needs to shut his pie hole!

BACK TO THE WEATHER.. sorry for his arrogance people, just ignore him and move on. Matthew looks good tonight and on it's way to Hurricane status by tomorrow evening.


Latest track has matthew as a TS.
He also seems to be heading WSW into CA, how's he going to become a hurricane there ?
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:
6Z GFS really wants to blow up something in 4-5 days, and I can not tell because the run is in progress but it LOOKS like it could be headed for the gulf, shooting out between the Yucatan ans Western Cuba.


Post some pics of it
Quoting reedzone:


Dude, he's been on my ignore list for a year now.. People keep quoting the liar.


Models Kill it Over the Yucatan Now... But What ever is left of it will head NE
2532. pottery
HUH!!
Just noticed the last photo on Dr. M's blog, submitted by Trinigirl.
It's been like that, all over Trinidad for quite a while recently.
Looks like we will get a break for a couple of days though.....
Quoting MahFL:


Latest track has matthew as a TS.
He also seems to be heading WSW into CA, how's he going to become a hurricane there ?
If you read the NHC discussion you will see the reasoning for that track.

Some models keep Matthew moving wnw across the yucatan and into the BOC, and others turn Matthew to the ne just upon approach to the yucatan. The NHC went down the middle of the two with the track... so no models are actually showing the scenario of the current NHC track.

2535. Engine2
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


The run is complete? I am stuck at hour 156...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalGFSLoop.html
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Matthew??
Pretty good-looking Fella!

Who is Coffee-Monitor, this morning??
(I vote for Surfmom)


Pottery,

Having seen how your big fish buddy likes to bust your chops, you may want to point him to the last para in this forecast
Quoting pottery:
HUH!!
Just noticed the last photo on Dr. M's blog, submitted by Trinigirl.
It's been like that, all over Trinidad for quite a while recently.
Looks like we will get a break for a couple of days though.....


Morning Pottery! How doth thee fare?

You guys look pretty flooded out.
Quoting surfmom:

some interesting posts this page...poor head - stretching to grasp this stuff...


You and me both. I always go back and read the page or two before. Glad I wasn't on last night.

How's the horses this morning? Beautiful weather here, 73 degrees.
2539. pottery
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Pottery,

Having seen how your big fish buddy likes to bust your chops, you may want to point him to the last para in this forecast

NICE!!
It will give me great pleasure, to point him in that direction.
Good morning all

Matthew has really moved himself along.

Microwave from bout 4 hours ago.

2542. Engine2
Quoting sHaDySrEbElLiOn:


Thank you, and wow will not likely pan out but for those that live in florida, it looks like the 6Z GFS want to throw the kitchen sink at you. Three possible cyclones in a matter of a week or two. I am glad I moved back to New York last month, but I will closely monitor the situation.
I'm in New York as well - its going to be a tense weekend for Florida as I'm sure all eyes will be on where the tangibles setup and where Matthew and possibly a second system go...
2543. DDR
HI pottery
mOrning all
I noticed Trinigirls pictures yesterday, very sad is the state of infrastructure in our country,15 mins or less of haevy rain and its floods.
TWC has Matthew's cone so large at the end that they can't be wrong as to where he will go.
2545. surfmom
Ahhhh - How wise Pottery -
I vote we start the day with a jigger of your Island supplement in the coffee.... perfect way to great the day

When you feel good & juiced, could you toss a few boulders? Worked the last two times (actually it did)
We've been w/out WAVE for too long..

Though, if Matteo or something, hits the magic box on the map.... our wave drought may end
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
If you read the NHC discussion you will see the reasoning for that track.

Some models keep Matthew moving wnw across the yucatan and into the BOC, and others turn Matthew to the ne just upon approach to the yucatan. The NHC went down the middle of the two with the track... so no models are actually showing the scenario of the current NHC track.



NASA GEOS-5 Model is close to the NHC scenerio.

Click on the forecast map, select Atlantic at the bottom and then animate.
Morning nrti.

I got this when clicking your link.

bad bad_referer

Not just bad mind you ;)

2549. pottery
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning Pottery! How doth thee fare?

You guys look pretty flooded out.

True enough!
Unfortunately, the Island is trying to recover from years of Bad Governance. Especially with regard to the maintenance of infrastucture (roads, DRAINS&RIVERS, etc etc).
But we did spend Billions on Bling, (2 Major Summits, several Stadiums, many incomplete glass and concrete super-buildings, and so on)
We have a new Government in place (4 months) and they are struggling to catch-up.
The weather has been unkind....
Five years ago Rita hit LA. Pretty much leveled Cameron Parish. If I could get to my pictures, I'd put some up.
Quoting Cotillion:
It has been hinting at that for a while.

As has the Euro and the CMC.

It's possible that the NHC will need to tweak the forecast considerably when they get their new information. They might end up being right all along.

Why I've said since yesterday to keep an eye on the East Pacific (which was skipped over as everyone was so enarmoured with 95L) as that is the low that's travelling in a similar direction to the storm that the models depict.

If you look very carefully at the last few GFS runs, you can see how it transfers. CMC and Euro is harder to pick as it is over 12 hour segments rather than 6, but it does appear similar. You'll note that the low now wants to come over Honduras rather than the Yucatan.

That disorganised area of convection on the East Pacific side could be where the hints are. It's not ITCZ, I don't think. That's much further north according to the Surface Analysis.

Now, it's likely that low - if it forms - will dissipate. However, the energy may not. Whether it's Matthew's remnants which re-fire alone or along with the energy from the East Pacific or it's an entirely new storm (Nicole) is very hard to determine at this point in time.

It's easy to take the line that Matthew will end up being a broad low in the Gulf of Honduras, and perhaps that the easiest line is the correct one. On the other hand, it looks a bit more tricky than that.


Good morning. Interesting scenario. I remember one of the models a few days back had pre-Matthew doing what looked like a loop around into the Pacific and then back over Honduras and into the Gulf side again before strengthening and heading north. Very confusting. I had a hard time trying to figure what the heck the model was showing. Well, with this low sitting down below Matthew and the energy in the Pacific, now it makes sense. Good catch.
2552. surfmom
Quoting pottery:

NICE!!
It will give me great pleasure, to point him in that direction.
Me too!!

Aislin
- horses are a drive away - I'm closer to the beach -- going for a paddle today -- want to be wave ready -- just gotta feeling
SlightlyCooling weather & angle of Sun changing has been a Big Relief for the horses - East winds helped a lot this week. Still will probably have to clipp the winter coat (way hot here for the thick furry) - and of course I'm watching this storm Matteo like a hawk in their regard
Quoting pottery:

True enough!
Unfortunately, the Island is trying to recover from years of Bad Governance. Especially with regard to the maintenance of infrastucture (roads, DRAINS&RIVERS, etc etc).
But we did spend Billions on Bling, (2 Major Summits, several Stadiums, many incomplete glass and concrete super-buildings, and so on)
We have a new Government in place (4 months) and they are struggling to catch-up.
The weather has been unkind....


Governments - who needs 'em?

That scenario kinda sounds like here, actually! Except our weather hasn't been bad.

Just as soon as a bit of rain falls, it floods; a snowflake falls on the railway track and everything stops with the age old excuse 'it's the wrong sort of snow'.

Hope that the rain stops and things can get back to normal. Is it well above the average?
2556. centex
NHC shifted south like I expected, but they waited until had no choice.
2557. pottery
Quoting surfmom:
Ahhhh - How wize Pottery -
I vote we start the day with a jigger of your Island supplement in the coffee.... perfect way to great the day

When you feel good & juiced, could you toss a few boulders? Worked the last two time (actually it did)
We've been w/out WAVE for too long..

Though, if Matteo or something, hits the magic box on the map.... our wave drought may end

LOL.
Just happen to be going up the coast this weekend, and into the forest.
Will certainly cast some boulders in the foamy brine.
Surfers here are all tired and banged-about, but smiling, from several days of BIG.
Quoting surfmom:
Me too!!

Aislin
- horses are a drive away - I'm closer to the beach -- going for a paddle today -- want to be wave ready -- just gotta feeling
SlightlyCooling weather & angle of Sun changing has been a Big Relief for the horses - East winds helped a lot this week. Still will probably have to clipp the winter coat (way hot here for the thick furry) - and of course I'm watching this storm Matteo like a hawk in their regard


Yes, a good friend of mine here has horses and boards some others. She has too many to evacuate and so watches closely if we are threatened. The horses are all microchipped, but after Rita, they found out that even though it's mandatory for the chipper to register the information, they hadn't. So there were a number of horses that couldn't be identified as to their owners. And the owners thought they would be notified when their horses were found. Bad mess back then.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning nrti.

I got this when clicking your link.

bad bad_referer

Not just bad mind you ;)

Link


Think I fixed it, does not like link to the animated page. Use Link, click on map, select Tropical Atlantic at the bottom and then animate.
Quoting DestinJeff:
This run should wake up the blog....



Nothing like a storm through the Yucatan Channel to start your Friday.


I'm awake, now. Thanks so much, DJ. You draggin' out the plywood yet?
Last few GFS runs have had it pick up some serious forward speed when it starts heading NE/NNE. From South Florida to New England in 36hrs. That's about 1300 miles...Which would mean he would be averaging 30-36mph. Fast to say the least.
2565. DDR
Cotillion-
slighty above average in eastern areas,way above average rainfall along the northern range and western areas.
2566. centex
Quoting DestinJeff:
This run should wake up the blog....



Nothing like a storm through the Yucatan Channel to start your Friday.
That is why only used as tool and when output makes so since, ignore.
2568. IKE
Troughs in the east, on the 10 day ECMWF and GFS.....




Quoting Cotillion:


Governments - who needs 'em?

That scenario kinda sounds like here, actually! Except our weather hasn't been bad.

Just as soon as a bit of rain falls, it floods; a snowflake falls on the railway track and everything stops with the age old excuse 'it's the wrong sort of snow'.

Hope that the rain stops and things can get back to normal. Is it well above the average?


There is a wrong sort of snow???
Even my local NWS is confused on Matthew:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
345 am EDT Friday Sep 24 2010



Wed-Fri...forecast becomes increasingly uncertain as we near the
middle to end of next week with the models continuing to show major
run to run inconsistencies on developing tropical activity toward
Florida. Latest NHC guidance builds tc Matthew west/northwest towards the
Yucatan by Tuesday with weakening expected as it remains over land.
By middle week the 00z GFS and the 12z European model (ecmwf) show a northward movement
or weakening of the cut off upper low over the southeast Continental U.S.. as
this occurs models develop a more vigorous tropical system
(circulation associated with matthew?) South of Cuba and lift it
northward toward the Florida Peninsula through late week. However as
stated before...severe run to run differences have existed over the
past several days so little confidence is given to these solutions
at this time.
Quoting IKE:
Troughs in the east, on the 10 day ECMWF and GFS.....






Mornin IKE!!

Got 50% chance of rain this weekend.....YESS!!
It's also been showing a very large system again the past few runs.

Since there seems to be a good crowd in here this morning. Some morning humor; and well, just plain good advice to live by.


The Most Inspiring thing ever said... sound bite  Michael Scott sound bitesThe Most Inspiring thing ever said... sound bite
2574. MahFL
Quoting KingDuji:
Tropical Cyclone Matthew looking strong.


Define "strong".
Quoting DestinJeff:
Naples?



Right. Just how far down is that cold front supposed to settle?
2576. surfmom
Quoting pottery:

LOL.
Just happen to be going up the coast this weekend, and into the forest.
Will certainly cast some boulders in the foamy brine.
Surfers here are all tired and banged-about, but smiling, from several days of BIG.
ahhhhhhhhhh I thought so -- I can just imagine that glazed-eye look & that quiet I've-been-beat-to-a- pulp Aura *BigSmile*

Yes Aislinn - the IDing always has me concerned, Marker on their Butt stains the coat for a while - but it's worth it for an ASAP ID, plus tying tags into manes & tails... have heard stories of micro chips being removed : ( horses & Dogs!!! ) got to check Fencing this Monday for Sure.... the things you plan for DON'T HAPPEN (least I like to think that)
GFS shows lots of activity again, especially in the caribbean with Matthew and another system forming in the Eastern caribbean that be another Omar. In addition, MJO will be in an upward phase. STAY TUNED, the two/three weeks will be interesting.
Quoting traumaboyy:


There is a wrong sort of snow???


Believe it or not, that's what they say.
Morning traumaboyy, Ike. Looks to be an interesting week or so coming up, eh?
Quoting weatherwart:
Morning traumaboyy, Ike. Looks to be an interesting week or so coming up, eh?


A very good morning to you....yes very interesting week.....many saying your part of the world especially!!
Quoting DestinJeff:


Hurricane season. Upcoming week is always interesting, sometimes very.


Jeff I am just excited we might finally get some rain!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW SEEMS CERTAIN TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WNW NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE...THEN BECOMING MORE COMPLEX IN THE DAY 4-5 AND BEYOND
TIME FRAME. SEVERAL FACTORS...INCLUDING FRONTAL POSITION AND UPPER
TROUGH INTEGRITY...CAN COME INTO PLAY ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF MATTHEW. HIGH PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MAY BUFFER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM ANY THREAT DUE TO INCREASED NORTHERLY SHEAR IN
TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT HURRICANE ISIDORE EXHIBITED
SIMILAR BEHAVIORS IN 2002 AND OCCURRED ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON THE
CALENDAR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION REGARDING TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FOR MORE DETAILS. 24/RR


Quoting DestinJeff:


Hurricane season. Upcoming week is always interesting, sometimes very.


Late season, pretty much always for Florida.
2585. surfmom
StormJunkie -Morning session EarlyBirds - we're ALWAYS a good crowd baby : )
recon yesterday found strong winds in mathews tail no reason to think otherwise now once the cyclone moves inland it is understandable the energy offshore over 85 f water could quickly develop another low pressure cannt hang a hat on it but thats it
2588. surfmom
Quoting surfmom:
StormJunkie -Morning session EarlyBirds - we're ALWAYS a good crowd baby : )


ahhh pleasant 77 degrees - getting the dog out for a run -- she's going to love this cool b/4 the sun
l8tr
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
542 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS
2590. IKE
Mobile,AL. extended...

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A LARGE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN
OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. A 594DM
HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVOLVES INTO A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS...A SFC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...AND INTO
OUR FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO NEAR 2.O INCHES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
BRING A GREATLY INCREASED CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLING ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING A RAIN CHANCE IN THE FCST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF SYSTEM SWINGING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DROP THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY LATE MONDAY THEN LIFTS IT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...PUSHING THE SFC
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DUE
TO MINIMAL SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED
SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW...CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS
2591. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:
GFS shows lots of activity again, especially in the caribbean with Matthew and another system forming in the Eastern caribbean that be another Omar. In addition, MJO will be in an upward phase. STAY TUNED, the two/three weeks will be interesting.

Intersting
The rainy season also starts its secondary peak here in October,so i wont be surprised to see a disturbance or alot f rain over the eastern carib. or islands
Quoting traumaboyy:


A very good morning to you....yes very interesting week.....many saying your part of the world especially!!


We'll see how it plays out, but I'm still planning on trimming some branches and burning some brush this weekend. I'm overdue anyway. I let it slide this past spring.
2595. Thaale
The GFS does not like Port Charlotte. Or North Carolina. And really, who can blame it?

This complicated scenario of Matthew dissipating and Nicole forming from its eastern outskirts and from moisture coming up from the Pacific would seem pretty complex and low confidence to me - if both the Euro and GFS hadn't both been on board with just this scenario for a number of consecutive runs now.

I just hope the Euro's right that a TS will steadily make its way north, instead of a GFS Nicole pausing to strengthen herself for 48 hours before nailing SW FL.
2596. centex
Either the center is about to be exposed or another south adjustment is needed.
Quoting centex:
Either the center is about to be exposed or another south adjustment is needed.


Think you're right. May see the center for a short bit on the NE quadrant of the blob. JSL "appears" to show the spin in that area but it looks as if Matthew is already working on getting more convection to it in the last few frames, imo.
Morning SM

Ok, y'all have a great morning. Moving today and time to shut the pc down...That's a rarity.

Not sure the center is about to be exposed, but it does seem to be displaced to the E side of the convection.

Intreastng Water Vapor Run
Anamate it through Link
Link

A quick painless death in Nicaragua! Keep going West Matthew!
2601. Patrap
TS Matthew

Rainbow

Matthew's making landfall. The whole west side seems to be getting ripped up.
Quoting weatherwart:
Matthew's making landfall. The whole west side seems to be getting ripped up.


Not as such. His COC is on the eastern side of the convection.

That said, Nicaragua is about to get very wet.

It does seem like storms, with the exception of maybe Alex, have been quicker than normal when in the Caribbean and Gulf this year (Hermine, Karl, Matthew).
2605. Patrap
TS Matthew

Dvorak Image

Quoting weatherwart:
Matthew's making landfall. The whole west side seems to be getting ripped up.


at 5am EST he wasn't past 80w yet, so he's not making landfall. just the convection going over land.
I know everyone and myself is wathching what Matthew is going to do here in the WU.Do you remember what happened 5 yrs ago today,RITA came a calling here in LA.Drove up the Sabine River,took out Cameron Parish with a 16 ft surge and layed down everything in its path.Took out acers of big pines here in the piny woods with 110-112 mph wind gusts at the weather station at the Toledo Bend dam,20 hrs of relentless wind and rain,a day I will not forget.JD
2608. Thaale
Quoting blsealevel:
Intreastng Water Vapor Run
Anamate it through Link
Link


That trough's taking its time getting east, isn't it? The northern part has steadily progressed to the point that it's over the Great Lakes. But the southern edge seems to still be over west central Texas or so, no?

2609. FLdewey
It's a bowl of ramen...

2610. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TS Matthew
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Boy, this sure causes me some consternation - excerpt from NHC 5am discussion on Matthew...

HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.
2612. Patrap
06z Late Cycle NHC model tracks
TS Matthew
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting BaltOCane:


at 5am EST he wasn't past 80w yet, so he's not making landfall. just the convection going over land.

COC is past 80W and seems to have taken a bit of a southward jog. Perhaps I should have said, "Matthew is starting to make landfall, or is going to make landfall, or is heading toward landfall." The point was that land is beginning to affect the convection on the west side. My bad. Link
2615. Patrap
Recon getting close to Matt. Google Earth Link

Noticed they released a dropsonde south of Haiti where there is a wind shift at flight level.
Quoting Ribbitman:
I know everyone and myself is wathching what Matthew is going to do here in the WU.Do you remember what happened 5 yrs ago today,RITA came a calling here in LA.Drove up the Sabine River,took out Cameron Parish with a 16 ft surge and layed down everything in its path.Took out acers of big pines here in the piny woods with 110-112 mph wind gusts at the weather station at the Toledo Bend dam,20 hrs of relentless wind and rain,a day I will not forget.JD


Ditto. I had a tree on my house and three that grew horizontal along the ground and had to be taken out. Luckily I keep the tall pines away from my house so if they ever come down, they are far enough away not to be able to do serious damage. One house a couple of miles from me had a ton of tall pines around their house. Many fell, but luckily all missed the house. A month after Rita they must have paid a fortune to have the remaining twenty or so taken down. Now their house is in the middle of a field like mine.
Quoting Cotillion:
Moreover, look at the steering currents: (I'm using 990-999 as that's close enough to where he'll be likely. The one up and down from there show the same sort of thing)



Now, steering current maps, of course, change. We're talking about something that might happen around Monday (at a guess).

However, it's hardly showing a high which would block westward progression which would cause a bounce eastward (as bizarrely shown by the GFDL 12z, for example) and that's if the northward progression was also stopped.

It's unlikely. It'd come from another source.

The map is the 850-500 layer so more steering surface currents. Basically those isobars line up with the isobars/wind barbs on a surface wind
map. They don't show pressure but wind speed although first impression is the the color coding is pressure. So the Map shows Mathew getting pushed into Central america where there is no wind..it is all blue.
I find the map misleading as well because the gradient winds from the storm itself are shown.
Oh Boy, this is concerning! Latest GFS


So it looks like the northern gulf is definitely in play here?
2623. shawn26
I am completely on board with the new GFS run.
Off to teach. Have a great Friday everyone!
2625. Patrap
3 days out



6 days out



As one met in Tampa said last night, with all of the variables, there is no one on the planet that can accurately predict where Matthew will go (at that time) and back it up with scientific data.
2628. Patrap



2629. WxLogic
Good Morning...
I find the COC at 14.7N 80.5W moving WWNW
Quoting Thaale:

That trough's taking its time getting east, isn't it? The northern part has steadily progressed to the point that it's over the Great Lakes. But the southern edge seems to still be over west central Texas or so, no?


It is actually a not yet developed Low along that trough that is forecast to dig south into the GOM to the point it affects Mathews remains+X in 4-5 days yet. When a trough/front stalls it often generates a new Low pressure along the stalled front. We have seen this over and over but when it comes to Lows/trough/fronts that are forecast to form to affect a storm in a few to several days they are always expected to exist already.
You have to trust the mid lat forecast maps. Both surface and upper level.
All the models are persistant on developing Nicole off Mathew. Either way Mathew or Nicole will have to impact FL as the steering is such that anything down there come Wednesday has to go NNE. FL better watch this situation this weekend and possibly prepare for a hurricane next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml
Good Morning everyone, I have been up since about 5 and been reading, and know I know when to get on. The blog is like it was a few years ago so nice. It's a pleasure to be with such a great bunch of folks. Sorry off the subject just had to say it. I hope everyone has a great day. Back to lurking.
sheri
2634. Dakster
Patrap's image is flickering for me. At first I thought I was having an epiletic seizure.

Doesn't make me feel good that the NHC has a LOW CONFIDENCE in forecast track and intensity... I guess we will have to watch and grit our teeth for the moment.
2635. IKE
...MATTHEW HEADING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...
8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 24
Location: 14.3N 80.7W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
.................................

Was at 14.3N and 79.8W. Moving due west...toward a landfall.
From the NWS of Melbourne

WED-FRI...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MAJOR
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD
FLORIDA. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BUILDS TC MATTHEW W/NW TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN BY TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND.
BY MID WEEK THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OR WEAKENING OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS MODELS DEVELOP A MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM
(CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW?) SOUTH OF CUBA AND LIFT IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER AS
STATED BEFORE...SEVERE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES HAVE EXISTED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS
ATTM.
Crown Weather has an excellent discussion on Matthew this morning.


Link
The "Q" of uncertainty...

Link
NWS of Tampa

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS ENERGY WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA...THE ATLANTIC RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. AS THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM
NEARS THE FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
2640. WxLogic
After looking at the computer model once last night's GIV data had been input-ed as well as Center fix(es)... I noticed that there's now more model consistency between the 00Z and 06Z runs. There's now a pretty good agreement even with NAM in which Matthew will not have the chance to stay offshore and unfortunately make further land penetration due to a stronger Bermuda high, which still expected to erode but a bit later by half a day to a day.

As you can see below the Bermuda high is starting to weaken and erode on the western flank as the TROF deepens to its W:



I agree with NHC track and possibility on changes depending on how Mathew interacts with the Bermuda High... one thing is for sure and is that is sure getting some Easterly shear due to the aforementioned High, but expected to decrease.

Finally, there's a good agreement on the possible scenario... on the 500MB VORT image below you'll see a piece of energy moving W (following Matthew) South of the Dominican Republic... this energy might play a role on developing a new system on the NW Caribbean and possibly become our new N TD/TS, but can't rule out the possibility that this little energy could be a focus for redevelopment/re-strengthening of Matthew as it might pull Matthew's energy back into the NW Caribbean and cause further development:



This is a very complex scenario to say the least and one that should give insight as to how these type of systems develop and why models do what they do under these conditions.
Sorry. I haven't been on lately. :D I saw this area while looking at the NHC TWO. Even though they havent mentioned it, it still looks like an area of concern. Subtropical Development??

Local Mets and the TWC are saying the C FL could pick up 20" of rain by the end of next week IF this system comes this way as all the models suggest.
good morning Jeff. so, you still think that eiter Matthew or Nicole will hit Florida? the 5AM advisory said that the global models are thinking that the storm will continue west with the storm being on the south side of the high
Quoting coffeecrusader:
As one met in Tampa said last night, with all of the variables, there is no one on the planet that can accurately predict where Matthew will go (at that time) and back it up with scientific data.
Good morning,

Latest 06Z GFS loop run is a bit menacing: Link

Otherwise, Matthew appears poised to be "taking the high road"...so to speak. He might really get impacted by the rugged terrain. Aerial view of the battleview:

2646. Thaale
Quoting sailingallover:

It is actually a not yet developed Low along that trough that is forecast to dig south into the GOM to the point it affects Mathews remains+X in 4-5 days yet. When a trough/front stalls it often generates a new Low pressure along the stalled front. We have seen this over and over but when it comes to Lows/trough/fronts that are forecast to form to affect a storm in a few to several days they are always expected to exist already.
You have to trust the mid lat forecast maps. Both surface and upper level.


Thank for for the explanation.
2648. IKE
2650. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crown Weather has an excellent discussion on Matthew this morning.


Link


Good discussion indeed... just read it and agree although I have a bit of a different theory, but can't argue his.
Quoting kshipre1:
good morning Jeff. so, you still think that eiter Matthew or Nicole will hit Florida? the 5AM advisory said that the global models are thinking that the storm will continue west with the storm being on the south side of the high


There is really good model consensus of a major system impacting FL whether it is Mathew or Nicole. Whatever is down there will have to come north next week as a powerful trough swings to the SE US.
2652. IKE
The Honduran territory consists mainly of mountains......


6z GFS shows the mess from Matthew/Nicole forming into a massive 968mb or lower extratropical cyclone for the Northeast, heavy flooding rains and strong nasty winds.
From Crown Weather.

A lot depends on how far inland Matthew may track into the Yucatan Peninsula. The further inland it tracks, the weaker it will become, potentially to the point of dissipation. If Matthew skirts the coast like some of the guidance suggests, then we could be looking at a potentially serious situation with an intensifying hurricane tracking into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about six days from now. Looking at the potential upper level pattern for late next week, it suggests that any tropical cyclone that makes it into the southern Gulf of Mexico would steered north-northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula.
2655. IKE
GFS has been showing a healthy tropical system, long-range, for about 2 weeks now. It still hasn't happened...yet. May not happen with Matthew.
2656. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
The Honduran territory consists mainly of mountains......




Any further southward deviation would impact circulation greatly... unfortunately Honduras and Nicaragua should start experiencing quite a bit of rain soon and mudslides especially in Honduras as the day progresses due to the convection being sheared to the W/SW by the E shear.

Once it gets to about 85W shear should decrease:

Bob Norcross on TWC said last night that several tropical systems are likely to impact FL over the next month and next week will be then first real test to see if FL residents are ready for what maybe a hurricane impacting FL late next week.
Quoting WxLogic:
After looking at the computer model once last night's GIV data had been input-ed as well as Center fix(es)... I noticed that there's now more model consistency between the 00Z and 06Z runs. There's now a pretty good agreement even with NAM in which Matthew will not have the chance to stay offshore and unfortunately make further land penetration due to a stronger Bermuda high, which still expected to erode but a bit later by half a day to a day.

As you can see below the Bermuda high is starting to weaken and erode on the western flank as the TROF deepens to its W:



I agree with NHC track and possibility on changes depending on how Mathew interacts with the Bermuda High... one thing is for sure and is that is sure getting some Easterly shear due to the aforementioned High, but expected to decrease.

Finally, there's a good agreement on the possible scenario... on the 500MB VORT image below you'll see a piece of energy moving W (following Matthew) South of the Dominican Republic... this energy might play a role on developing a new system on the NW Caribbean and possibly become our new N TD/TS, but can't rule out the possibility that this little energy could be a focus for redevelopment/re-strengthening of Matthew as it might pull Matthew's energy back into the NW Caribbean and cause further development:



This is a very complex scenario to say the least and one that should give insight as to how these type of systems develop and why models do what they do under these conditions.
Morning...nice analysis. Yeah...it's gonna get dicey if what is depicted in that first model run it's course.

I know it's been dry up through the Carolinas & Virginia. So some nice rain would be nice, just not near TS or hurricane conditions!
2659. MahFL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Crown Weather has an excellent discussion on Matthew this morning.


Link


Don't panic ! Don't Panic !.
Quoting IKE:
GFS has been showing a healthy tropical system, long-range, for about 2 weeks now. It still hasn't happened...yet. May not happen with Matthew.


GFS now shows this over the next several days and it may just be Mathew and not a seperate system. IF Mathew goes inland then I'm sorry IKE then you will probably be wrong again because then a seperate spin off from Mathew will then take shape and form Nicole. All models suggest this. Models wrong IKE right we will see! I put my money on the models.
Quoting IKE:
The Honduran territory consists mainly of mountains......


Yep...I think it's gonna be a major player in his overall structure & intensity.
They're still watching "0% chance of redevelopment" Julia, though I imagine that'll stop soon. Winds are at 25 knots, pressure is 1012, and--worst of all--the CoC is co-located several hundred miles to the west of what's left of her patchy and fading convection. I imagine she'll be deactivated this weekend. Au revoir, Julia...

AL, 12, 2010092412, , BEST, 0, 309N, 431W, 25, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JULIA, S,
2664. Thaale
Quoting IKE:
GFS has been showing a healthy tropical system, long-range, for about 2 weeks now. It still hasn't happened...yet. May not happen with Matthew.

IMO it's very hard for models to deal with land interaction. Does anyone know what level of topographic detail is programmed into the models? I imagine it's fairly precise, but do the models "know" about every peak and valley on Hispaniola or in Honduras?
2665. WxLogic
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Morning...nice analysis. Yeah...it's gonna get dicey if what is depicted in that first model run it's course.

I know it's been dry up through the Carolinas & Virginia. So some nice rain would be nice, just not near TS or hurricane conditions!


Indeed... pretty much whole E CONUS is pretty much rain deprived due to the Bermuda placement for the past weeks keeping us dry.
2666. Dakster
Quoting Jeff9641:
Bob Norcross on TWC said last night that several tropical systems are likely to impact FL over the next month and next week will be then first real test to see if FL residents are ready for what maybe a hurricane impacting FL late next week.


Not to be nit picky... (As I make mistakes too!)

But I believe it is Brian Norcross and not Bob.
Recon near the NHC 8AM position, pressure at 1003.9, no wind shift at flight level yet.

120930 1436N 08035W 8431 01518 0039 +173 +123 159040 041 035 003 03

14.6
80.6
2668. Grothar


Earlier run showed another low in the Bahamas.

Quoting Dakster:


Not to be nit picky... (As I make mistakes too!)

But I believe it is Brian Norcross and not Bob.


Sorry!
TropicalStormMathew's heading had turned westward to dueWest
from its previous heading of (10.9degrees west of) WestNorthWest
TS.Mathew's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~20mph(~23km/h)
TropicalDepression15
23Sep 06pmGMT - - 13.9n76.2w - - 35mph - - -1007mb - - #1
TD.15 becomes TS.Mathew
23Sep 09pmGMT - - 14.0n76.9w - - 40mph - - - 1006mb - - NHC.Adv.#2
24Sep 12amGMT - - 14.2n77.7w - - 40mph - - - 1005mb - - #2A
24Sep 03amGMT - - 14.0n78.4w - - 45mph - - - 1005mb - - #3
24Sep 06amGMT - - 14.2n79.3w - - 40mph - - - 1005mb - - #3A
24Sep 09amGMT - - 14.3n79.8w - - 50mph - - - 1000mb - - #4
24Sep 12pmGMT - - 14.3n80.7w - - 50mph - - - 1000mb - - #4A

Copy&paste 13.9n76.2w, 14.0n76.9w, 14.2n77.7w-14.0n78.4w, 14.0n78.4w-14.2n79.3w, 14.2n79.3w-14.3n79.8w, 14.3n79.8w-14.3n80.7w, pnd, trb, nbw, vqs, 14.3n80.7w-14.29n83.23w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~8hours from now to Auastara,Nicaragua

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
2671. IKE
HWRF on Matthew...Link
Sheilds are up!
2673. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


Not to be nit picky... (As I make mistakes too!)

But I believe it is Brian Norcross and not Bob.


I believe that is Bryan LOL
2674. Thaale
Quoting Dakster:


Not to be nit picky... (As I make mistakes too!)

But I believe it is Brian Norcross and not Bob.

Going you one further, it's actually Bryan.

The local "hero" of Andrew, but gone downhill since IMO.
2675. hydrus
2676. barbamz
2677. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Sheilds are up!


Steady as she goes.
IMO this thing is going to barrel right into the mts. of Nicaragua and Honduras. I know the system isnt completely symmetric, but this thing has no northward component with as of right now. 14.6 N as a COC is a little generious IMO.
Engage!
2680. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:


hydrus, that is one scary image!!
Dr Knabb just said that he strongly believes that something is going to lift out of the NW Caribbean and into the GOM. He just like most others does not know if it will be Matthew or a new development.
2682. IKE
Lowest pressure...up 1mb....1001.0 mb
(~ 29.56 inHg)
Quoting IKE:


Steady as she goes.
A Raconteurs song?...I think?
2684. Thaale
Quoting ILwthrfan:
IMO this thing is going to barrel right into the mts. of Nicaragua and Honduras. I know the system isnt completely symmetric, but this thing has no northward component with as of right now. 14.6 N as a COC is a little generious IMO.

Who has it 14.6, ILwthrfan? It was still 14.3 a few minutes back at the NHC's 12Z.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Engage!


Panhandle should be fine and you can thank a cold front for that. It's the FL penisula that is in big trouble for weeks to come.
2686. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Engage!


I'll be in my quarters.
2687. hydrus
The very eastern side of Honduras is not that mountainous. If the storm crosses this region, it may not weaken to much.
Quoting Thaale:

IMO it's very hard for models to deal with land interaction. Does anyone know what level of topographic detail is programmed into the models? I imagine it's fairly precise, but do the models "know" about every peak and valley on Hispaniola or in Honduras?


For the GFS:

New orography data sets are constructed based on a United States Geological Survey (USGS)
global digital elevation model (DEM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 30 arc seconds
(approximately 1 km). Orography statistics including average height, mountain variance,
maximum orography, land-sea-lake masks are directly derived from a 30-arc second DEM for a
given resolution. Computed global orography data sets are available for three resolutions of 8, 4,
and 2 minutes which correspond to approximately 16, 8, 4 km, respectively.

Link
thanks Jeff. I was hearing that troughs this time of the year are not as strong as in October so probably if the storm stays over CA long enough, either it will dissipate or if it moves in the southern gulf, it may not move as close to Florida compared to an October storm.

Were you also saying that next week whether it be Matthew or Nicole might hit Florida?

I do understand your point that the global model consenus shows a tropical system affecting Florida next week, just wondering
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon near the NHC 8AM position, pressure at 1003.9, no wind shift at flight level yet.

120930 1436N 08035W 8431 01518 0039 +173 +123 159040 041 035 003 03

14.6
80.6


I was going to say 14.6 didnt look right , thx for the correction.
Good morninmg folks. As of 8am this morning

NICARAGUA
Wunderground
Bluefields (South of mid coast) not reporting
and Puerto Cabeza (North Coast) not reporting
NOAA -
Bluefields most current 9/23 6pm (EDT)
Puerto Cabeza most current 9/23 6pm (EDT)

HONDURAS
Wunderground
Puerto Lempira (Soutwest coast) not reporting
NOAA
Puerto Lempira most current 9/23 8pm (EDT)

Closest Buoy
Station 42057 - Western Caribbean 16.834 N 81.501 W
Its very likely we will have a big GOM storm next week.Keeping fingers crossed
2693. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


hydrus, that is one scary image!!
They might get scarier as time goes by..Something gonna come from all this, and not all of it will be good..Mornin Gro.
2694. Grothar
2695. Thaale
Quoting Jeff9641:


Panhandle should be fine and you can thank a cold front for that. It's the FL penisula that is in big trouble for weeks to come.

I thought you just told IKE to trust the models? Models indicate the panhandle is in at least as much danger as the peninsula, probably more. Check out the AEMN. I guess we only are to trust the models when they indicate what we're already wishing for...
Quoting hydrus:
The very eastern side of Honduras is not that mountainous. If the storm crosses this region, it may not weaken to much.
The eastern part, no.

But if he skirts the entire or most of the northern coast (even only as little as 20 or 30 miles inland), that might be enough to have quite a severe impact on him.
My guess is that Matthew will be disrupted by the Central America terrain to the point where it is guided by the 850 MB steering flow instead of the 250 MB flow, thereby continuing mainly W or WNW after reaching land. It should become a disorganized area of lower pressure and even if the anticipated trough starts to somehow influence it later, it'll be too disorganized to become a potent threat. Just my two cents worth...
2699. Thaale
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


For the GFS:

New orography data sets are constructed based on a United States Geological Survey (USGS)
global digital elevation model (DEM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 30 arc seconds
(approximately 1 km). Orography statistics including average height, mountain variance,
maximum orography, land-sea-lake masks are directly derived from a 30-arc second DEM for a
given resolution. Computed global orography data sets are available for three resolutions of 8, 4,
and 2 minutes which correspond to approximately 16, 8, 4 km, respectively.

Link


Thanks. That's pretty good resolution. I guess it's a complex interaction to model even if the background inputs are as precise as this.
good morning everyone.
2701. hydrus
2702. FLdewey
NWS Melbourne represent'n

WED-FRI...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AS WE NEAR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW MAJOR
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON DEVELOPING TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD
FLORIDA. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BUILDS TC MATTHEW W/NW TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN BY TUESDAY WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND.
BY MID WEEK THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
OR WEAKENING OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS MODELS DEVELOP A MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM
(CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MATTHEW?) SOUTH OF CUBA AND LIFT IT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER AS
STATED BEFORE...SEVERE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES HAVE EXISTED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THESE SOLUTIONS
ATTM.

Holla!
2703. centex
Funny some even suggesting Matthew not the TC models bring into FL.
2704. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
Local Mets and the TWC are saying the C FL could pick up 20" of rain by the end of next week IF this system comes this way as all the models suggest.
LINK Please
2705. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
The eastern part, no.

But if he skirts the entire or most of the northern coast (even only as little as 20 or 30 miles inland), that might be enough to have quite a severe impact him.
Si senor.....Goog morning by the way.
2706. hydrus
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
good morning everyone.
Wuzup Jason.
Quoting TropicalBruce:
My guess is that Matthew will be disrupted by the Central America terrain to the point where it is guided by the 850 MB steering flow instead of the 250 MB flow, thereby continuing mainly W or WNW after reaching land. It should become a disorganized area of lower pressure and even if the anticipated trough starts to somehow influence it later, it'll be too disorganized to become a potent threat. Just my two cents worth...
At this stage of the game, I'm probably gonna have to agree with that. At least I'm definitely leaning that way.
going to hit land soon.
Quoting hydrus:
Si senor.....Goog morning by the way.
...and a good morning to you too
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Sept. 24th. 2010


much appreciated. When you say 'central to northern gulf coast states,' what areas are you referring to? sounds like a panhandle to LA event?
Quoting BobinTampa:


much appreciated. When you say 'central to northern gulf coast states,' what areas are you referring to? sounds like a panhandle to LA event?


Yes.
122130 1420N 08112W 8428 01500 0009 +189 +114 125011 014 022 002 03
122200 1419N 08113W 8432 01498 0009 +188 +108 125007 008 022 003 03
122230 1418N 08114W 8430 01500 0012 +186 +109 137006 007 007 003 03
122300 1416N 08115W 8424 01507 0010 +191 +106 117004 004 004 002 03
122330 1415N 08116W 8427 01505 0012 +189 +107 074006 006 005 002 03
122400 1414N 08117W 8433 01500 0018 +183 +108 062005 006 007 001 03
122430 1412N 08118W 8429 01505 0023 +176 +096 015004 004 026 001 03
122500 1410N 08118W 8424 01511 0027 +177 -032 349006 010 030 004 00


Looks like ~14.25 81.26
Quoting weatherguy03:


Yes.


Sorry Ike.
2714. IKE
1000.5 mb
(~ 29.54 inHg)
2715. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
They might get scarier as time goes by..Something gonna come from all this, and not all of it will be good..Mornin Gro.


Hey, hydrus! Interesting week coming up. How you doing?
From the Miami NWS Discussion:

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
WITH A COLD FRONT DIGGING INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE MONDAY AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST. AS A
RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
ROUGHLY 24-36 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A
STUBBORN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DUE TO HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY...WE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 30-40 POPS FOR EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
2718. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:


Here you go hydrus.

We have 1.76 inches of rain already and Mathew is still over a day from us
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 14.19N 81.29W
Splash Time: 12:26Z

1002mb (Surface)
One thing is for sure, Mathew will cause a disaster if indeed it does stall out over Honduras. Where the energy goes day 4-5 is anyones guess right now as we need to see if a Nicole situation plays out. Looks like an extratropical event might be in play for florida and the east coast. That GFS scenario looks pretty darn scary as far as a major rain event setting up. A tropical system interacting with a cold front can cause some ugly weather. Where's StormW, he has been missing for quite a while?
Quoting weatherguy03:


Yes.


Or it could be a non-event if Matthew decides to die over the Yucatan. Or a Florida event if that secondary area of Low Pressure forms. Alot of variables still.
Quoting Jeff9641:
All the models are persistant on developing Nicole off Mathew. Either way Mathew or Nicole will have to impact FL as the steering is such that anything down there come Wednesday has to go NNE. FL better watch this situation this weekend and possibly prepare for a hurricane next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml
....seems like over the last 4-5days,the up the west coast of fl track has been similar and seems likely the central west coast of fl will be impacted by a tc in about a week!!
2726. Thaale
You guys (Grecojdw and KUEFC) are wasting your time asking the leopard to change his spots. He's not the only one and he's not the worst one. Wait till apocalyps and the other guy get home from school this afternoon.
Quoting weatherguy03:


Or it could be a non-event if Matthew decides to die over the Yucatan. Or a Florida event if that secondary area of Low Pressure forms. Alot of variables still.


either way, it will be sucking a lot of moisture up into Florida correct? I saw some of the models predicting 5-10 inches over the next 5 days in some areas.
Quoting Grecojdw:
Jeff dude you have to stop the wishcasting into the peninsula. As long as I've been a lurker here and a member you've wished things into the peninsula and or said that it was the only area of concern and no one else. I'll give you that you don't do pinpoint exact locations (sammywammybammy does that...incredibly annoying). But, you cannot honestly rule out any other area of the Gulf for storm impact (if we were having this conversation at the end of October when the fronts are strong enough..I would give credence to your evaluation). So please stop saying things like that without some proof.


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.

Very hard to get a system to the Panhandle with a setup like this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml
Quoting Thaale:
You guys (Grecojdw and KUEFC) are wasting your time asking the leopard to change his spots. He's not the only one and he's not the worst one. Wait till apocalyps and the other guy get home from school this afternoon.



hahahahahaha.....lol
2730. breald
Quoting Grothar:


I believe that is Bryan LOL



I think you're both wrong it is Briyan...LOL

TGIF!!!
Quoting BobinTampa:


either way, it will be sucking a lot of moisture up into Florida correct? I saw some of the models predicting 5-10 inches over the next 5 days in some areas.


Yes, starting this weekend the moisture will be increasing over Florida through next week. Alot of welcomed rainfall coming.
2732. srada
Good Morning!

Just saw the latest GFS runs..looks like the storm is predicting to be stronger over the NC Carolina/VA coast than Florida ..and yes I know that scenario is more than 72 hours but its still a good discussion no less..
2733. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:


Sorry Ike.


Too many scenario's. Throw a dart at a dartboard.

May not survive the landfall that's coming today.
2734. Grothar
Quoting breald:



I think you're both wrong it is Briyan...LOL

TGIF!!!


Starting early, huh? LOL
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.

Very hard to get a system to the Panhandle with a setup like this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml


was that at 204 hours? Isn't that too far out?
2736. ackee
I just think that TS mathhew will die over central america
I think I can say to everyone in Southwest Florida..... 'congratulations' Matthew will not be a monster anymore and it looks like Southwest FL will be out of the gun!!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.

Very hard to get a system to the Panhandle with a setup like this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml


Basing this on one model isnt the way to go. There are many different scenarios that this one could take. See ya all later!!
2739. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 14.19N 81.29W
Splash Time: 12:26Z

1002mb (Surface)


NHC had it at 14.3N and 80.7W on the advisory.
Quoting IKE:


Too many scenario's. Throw a dart at a dartboard.

May not survive the landfall that's coming today.


From the latest recon he is below the forecast track, much more interaction with land unless he jogs north soon.
2741. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.

Very hard to get a system to the Panhandle with a setup like this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml
Yea that is only 200 hours away and you quote it like it is set in stone. Give me a break.
Quoting Jeff9641:


For one read correctly as I said the models show a significant system affecting FL. IKE was disagreeing with the models saying he doesn't feel it will happen. Inregards to the FL Panhandle based on the steering pattern next week it will be difficult for a system to affect the Panhandle as too deep of a trough is project to dive in. So before you assume it would be nice if you could read and comprehend before commenting on another comment.


The models are all over the place, it just depends on which model you prefer I guess to decide where you think it will go. Look at the forecast track, it's a huge bubble at the end of it meaning they have no clue which direction it's going to go when it hits the Yucatan. The front is not forecast to be that strong and the system is weak and going to stay pretty week, there's a good chance the front could turn it North and then exit without completely picking it up, then where does it go with the upper low forecast to be to it's West? Too many variables to rule out anywhere along the GOM coast IMO.
2743. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From the latest recon he is below the forecast track, much more interaction with land unless he jogs north soon.


Yeah...I agree. Pressure hasn't dropped either.
Morning All.

06GFS seems like the most believable scenario, IMO. It's not the first time it's showed it either, ECMWF00Z is kinda on board with the same scenario. This is where my thoughts reside, no Nicole, Matthew all the way.
2745. divdog
Quoting weatherguy03:


Basing this on one model isnt the way to go. There are many different scenarios that this one could take. See ya all later!!
He picks and chooses whatever shows a tendency toward cfla. Always has and always will.
2746. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
...and a good morning to you too
I have a theory this morning. Some of the models dissipate Matthew and have a new system(Nicole)forming and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I believe Mat weakens, the low in the Central Caribbean Sea continues west and merges with the Mat low which will be meandering at the time of the merger.The second short wave trough pulls this mess north(big mess if this happens over the water) but my question is, if the systems merge, is it Mat or Nikki? Anyway, the GFS has a hurricane moving over southwest Florida...Link
2747. WXTXN
Did you already drink the champagne?
Quoting HuHunter:
I think I can say to everyone in Southwest Florida..... 'congratulations' Matthew will not be a monster anymore and it looks like Southwest FL will be out of the gun!!!!

2748. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Here you go hydrus.

Thank you Grothar...Bonus Geritol for you....
Quoting Thaale:
You guys (Grecojdw and KUEFC) are wasting your time asking the leopard to change his spots. He's not the only one and he's not the worst one. Wait till apocalyps and the other guy get home from school this afternoon.


FROM TWC


On Tuesday, Weather Services International (WSI), a member of The Weather Channel companies, released its final hurricane season forecast. WSI predicted that tropical cyclones during the remainder of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will pose a threat to the U.S.
According to the National Weather Service in Miami, more hurricanes have struck the South Florida mainland in October (19), than any other month, including September (15). Seven of those October hurricanes were major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).



Typical October tropical cyclone tracks
Image: NOAA/National Hurricane Center


The reason for this is a shift in the prime formation area of tropical cyclones as you head toward October. Instead of forming in the eastern Atlantic, the western Caribbean Sea becomes a "hot-bed" for activity in October. The typical storm track, carved out by increasingly strong jet stream winds, steers the tropical cyclone to the northeast towards, you guessed it, Florida.


2750. Thaale
Quoting WXTXN:
Did you already drink the champagne?


Sounds more like drinking the Kool-Aid.
Squirrel activity in Palm Beach County remains close to normal so there should be no tropical activity present for the next 5 days. Carry on!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.



I'd much rather hear from mets in Pensacola, Tallahassee, Mobile, etc... about panhandle weather. JMO

I've seen an equal amount of met postings hinting at anything from what seems about Mobile on East (southeast) towards the Keys, and almost every single one says there are too many variables and too much time to rule out anything in those areas.
Can Someone Post the Newest Dynamic Models?

Are the Models Still Having a Hard Time with Matthew?

TIA
2754. breald
Quoting Grothar:


Starting early, huh? LOL


What do you mean early?? It is almost 9am...LOL
Quoting weatherguy03:


Basing this on one model isnt the way to go. There are many different scenarios that this one could take. See ya all later!!


TRY ALL MODELS. WOW! Here is all the models I use below. Look at the consistency.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
2756. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


FROM TWC


On Tuesday, Weather Services International (WSI), a member of The Weather Channel companies, released its final hurricane season forecast. WSI predicted that tropical cyclones during the remainder of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will pose a threat to the U.S.
According to the National Weather Service in Miami, more hurricanes have struck the South Florida mainland in October (19), than any other month, including September (15). Seven of those October hurricanes were major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).



Typical October tropical cyclone tracks
Image: NOAA/National Hurricane Center


The reason for this is a shift in the prime formation area of tropical cyclones as you head toward October. Instead of forming in the eastern Atlantic, the western Caribbean Sea becomes a "hot-bed" for activity in October. The typical storm track, carved out by increasingly strong jet stream winds, steers the tropical cyclone to the northeast towards, you guessed it, Florida.


Yea what the heck does that have to do with whether or not matthew or something else may or may not hit florida. all you did was quote climatology and we all already know that. nice try but you better do a whole lot better than that if you are going to convince anybody that you know what you are talking about.
2757. HCW
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Can Someone Post the Newest Dynamic Models?

Are the Models Still Having a Hard Time with Matthew?

TIA



Don't make the mistake of RIPing Matthew if he lingers over the Yucatan for a few days.

Matthew is unorganized, and he will stay unorganized as he travels around central America.

These land mass interactions on a tropic system at these locations do not affect an unorganized storm as much as a tightly wound one.

When Matthew pops out over water again, whenever and where ever that is, he could still have plenty of energy to ramp up into a killer hurricane.
2761. breald
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

06GFS seems like the most believable scenario, IMO. It's not the first time it's showed it either, ECMWF00Z is kinda on board with the same scenario. This is where my thoughts reside, no Nicole, Matthew all the way.


Hi Cyclone I cannot get the full image. What does this show?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:





The Image isnt Working.
Quoting hydrus:
I have a theory this morning. Some of the models dissipate Matthew and have a new system(Nicole)forming and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I believe Mat weakens, the low in the Central Caribbean Sea continues west and merges with the Mat low which will be meandering at the time of the merger.The second short wave trough pulls this mess north(big mess if this happens over the water) but my question is, if the systems merge, is it Mat or Nikki? Anyway, the GFS has a hurricane moving over southwest Florida...Link
I see a third system at the end of the GFS Run
Quoting hydrus:
I have a theory this morning. Some of the models dissipate Matthew and have a new system(Nicole)forming and moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I believe Mat weakens, the low in the Central Caribbean Sea continues west and merges with the Mat low which will be meandering at the time of the merger.The second short wave trough pulls this mess north(big mess if this happens over the water) but my question is, if the systems merge, is it Mat or Nikki? Anyway, the GFS has a hurricane moving over southwest Florida...Link


Yea...I noticed the 06Z GFS run & it was quite menacing for FL. I'm on board w/ you about Matthew succumbing to it's fate over the rugged highlands of Honduras. Granted, I don't put TOO much emphasis in long-range (10-15) forecasts, but do have a feeling a second storm will emerge. Where is goes or the intensity...I have no idea.

If if those two merge, oh my. 'MatNikki' would be my guess as to what they would call it.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Can Someone Post the Newest Dynamic Models?

Are the Models Still Having a Hard Time with Matthew?

TIA


Still Need an Answer to this
Quoting Jeff9641:


Went to college for meteorology so I would say all these models suggest the Panhandle should be good.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm


And plenty of other models and the discussions from the NHC show that after day 3 the forecast track is up in the air. Keep selling it but nobody's buying it Jeff.
Quoting Jeff9641:


GFS now shows this over the next several days and it may just be Mathew and not a seperate system. IF Mathew goes inland then I'm sorry IKE then you will probably be wrong again because then a seperate spin off from Mathew will then take shape and form Nicole. All models suggest this. Models wrong IKE right we will see! I put my money on the models.
I don't remember any model runs having matt any more orgainized or stronger than he is now where he is now,he appears to be doing almost exactly what some if the gfs runs had home doing,samemodels took him towards belize curved him north,then. Ne up the west coast of fl....
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Expect a Shift East at 11am?
2773. HCW
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Don't make the mistake of RIPing Matthew if he lingers over the Yucatan for a few days.

Matthew is unorganized, and he will stay unorganized as he travels around central America.

These land mass interactions on a tropic system at these locations do not affect an unorganized storm as much as a tightly wound one.

When Matthew pops out over water again, whenever and where ever that is, he could still have plenty of energy to ramp up into a killer hurricane.


He doesn't have to ramp up any to be a killer. Flooding rains are going to kill many in his current state
2774. FLdewey
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Still Need an Answer to this

go back a few pages... Pat had them earlier.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

T.S. MATTHEW EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEE NHC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS. GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT BUT SOMEWHAT ERRATIC ON ANOTHER AREA OF
CYCLOGENSIS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT.
A CONTINUED WESTERLY PHASE MJO IS CURRENTLY
AND FORECAST TO KEEP UP ANOMALOUSLY WESTERLY H850 MB WINDS OVER
THE TROPICAL EPAC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CREATES FAVORABLE
BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE CHI VERTICAL
VELOCITY ANOMALIES SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME FORM OF CYCLOGENSIS IN
THIS REGION. ALL GLOBAL MODELS GFS/ECMWF/NGPS/CMC/UKMET AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTER
ROUGHLY NEAR WRN CUBA BY DAY 7 FRI. SEE FUTURE NHC/TPC
DISCUSSIONS. HPC PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS AGAIN THE DEPICTION BY
ECMWF ENS MEAN.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thanks.. Models Still Going Crazy
Quoting breald:


Hi Cyclone I cannot get the full image. What does this show?


Matthew making landfall over the Yucatan, stalling, drifting back out into the NW Caribbean as a broad area of LP, strengthening, heading N the NNE over Cuba then NE across FL (Just above Lake O) as a hurricane then up the east coast.
2778. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Expect a Shift East at 11am?
not really
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Expect a Shift East at 11am?


IMO, no.
Quoting 69Viking:


And plenty of other models and the discussions from the NHC show that after day 3 the forecast track is up in the air. Keep selling it but nobody's buying it Jeff.


I'll just let the pattern playout. I don't need to say no more. You can't have a system go against the steering pattern as it just won't happen. Sorry man maybe next time!
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Don't make the mistake of RIPing Matthew if he lingers over the Yucatan for a few days.

Matthew is unorganized, and he will stay unorganized as he travels around central America.

These land mass interactions on a tropic system at these locations do not affect an unorganized storm as much as a tightly wound one.

When Matthew pops out over water again, whenever and where ever that is, he could still have plenty of energy to ramp up into a killer hurricane.


I total agree, just go back to Opal in 95 to see what can happen after a weak storm crosses the Yucatan. We just have to wait and see with this one, no way to pin point any kind of U.S. landfall right now.
I Agree Guys
Quoting HCW:


He doesn't have to ramp up any to be a killer. Flooding rains are going to kill many in his current state


Without a doubt, as Bob said in his briefing this morning, that will be the first big story about this storm.

That part of the world is truly DOOM!
Quoting johnnyascat:


Agreed! Looking forward to it as well! He is backing up his bs.


please post link....
2785. FLdewey
It's Florida Friday everyone... this is a couple skate. Break out the hypercolor shirts and crank up the black lights.
As I figured yesterday, by simply watching Mathew's loops, he is headed to Central America. Even if the center of circulation does not cross land, Mathew hopefully will not intensify because of land interaction. I am somewhat relieved since I live in South Florida. Dr. Masters will report soon I hope!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


IMO, no.


Most Models are New East of the OFCI Track?
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


please post link....


Link
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is your proof AGAIN and how many discussions from Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami do you need to read to see that is is safe to say the Panhandle should be good for right now.

Very hard to get a system to the Panhandle with a setup like this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_204.shtml



That is no PROOF.....that's a MODEL...LOL!!!
2791. HCW
Recon + Visible




2792. breald
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Matthew making landfall over the Yucatan, stalling, drifting back out into the NW Caribbean as a broad area of LP, strengthening, heading N the NNE over Cuba then NE across FL (Just above Lake O) as a hurricane then up the east coast.


Yuck!! How strong is it when it as it comes up the coast?
2793. divdog
Quoting FLdewey:
It's Florida Friday everyone... this is a couple skate. Break out the hypercolor shirts and crank up the black lights.
yup .. already got one calling for an EASTWARD shift in the models and another calling for a cfla flood of epic proportions quoting steering 10 days out. Its going to be one heck of a Friday although it will be tough to beat a monster takin florida off the map Thursday.
2794. RickWPB
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Sept. 24th. 2010


Nice update Bob!
I see early in the season we have westcasters and late in the season we have eastcasters.
If you weed through all the junk the GFS is tossing out each run, it's been rather consistent with the eventual path. GFS has the best handle on Mattie, IMO. We'll see how it plays out over the weekend.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:





You cannot hot link from that site, their server prevents it.
2798. dmh1026
The ants are going crazy here in Fort Myers....
Quoting breald:


Yuck!! How strong is it when it as it comes up the coast?


Tough to say using a global model. The GFS is showing 998 but, it looks too well organized for a pressure like that. My guess would be a Cat 1 or 2.

Quoting weatherguy03:


Basing this on one model isnt the way to go. There are many different scenarios that this one could take. See ya all later!!


Thank you again Bob, very good update.
Quoting breald:


Yuck!! How strong is it when it as it comes up the coast?


Here's the latest (06Z) GFS run depicting this. It's a little ways off yet, but it appears to want to at least hug the Eastern Seaboard before hiting the coast. Link
Matthew's structure still isn't all that great, despite the impressive convection:

Quoting FLdewey:

Dear God no.


Come on...You knew it was coming sooner or later

Complete Update

Lisa and Julia - NFI Model

Matthew - on track with HH investigating



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Florida LIDAR mapping of coastline

Link
2808. quante
Matthew looks to still be headed due West, slight jog to the south, on latest RGB loop. I see no NW movement yet. Looks like it is headed straight into Nicaragua. Time will tell.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Matthew's structure still isn't all that great, despite the impressive convection:



hmmm. Decoupled circulation? Doesn't look stacked to me?



good morning everyone!!! hope all is well on blog! i live in southeast texas almost on la border, was wondering if we should worry or will the high keep us safe? thanks in advance for any answers!!!
It appears that Matthew is now slowing down. Possible turn to the left may come soon.
Tampa, FL - The State of Florida embarked on the Florida Coastal Mapping project in an effort to best prepare for future hurricane or tropical storm events. As of summer 2010 the first two of three phases have been completed. The overall Florida Coastal Mapping project involves:
• Collecting LiDAR data for coastal counties.
• Conducting model runs of the National Weather Service’s “Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes” (SLOSH) models for the state’s 11 coastal basins as well as the Okeechobee basin.
• Developing regional evacuation plans based on this new vulnerability data.

A significant amount of the LiDAR data gathering and SLOSH model development was conducted by the Program and Data Solutions (PDS) Joint Venture of PBS&J, URS, and Dewberry. The effort included developing a data gathering methodology including LiDAR and aerial photography, coordination between the National Weather Service and other agencies, and establishing potential uses of the final product.

Now that the PDS team has completed and updated its portion of the SLOSH models for the entire Florida coastline, Federal and Florida state and local emergency managers now have a more complete picture of areas that must be evacuated immediately before a tropical storm. This gives them the ability to integrate this state-of-the-art information into the development of emergency management plans and operational procedures.

Relying upon this new risk data, the Florida Division of Emergency Management, Division of Community Planning, and Department of Transportation, in coordination with the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, developed the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program for the Tampa Bay Region. This report updates the region's evacuation population estimates, evacuation clearance times, and public shelter demand. The study was officially released on August 26, 2010, and covers Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, and Pinellas counties and their municipalities. Tampa Bay is the first region in Florida to use the new data to update its regional hurricane evacuation study.

More information about the Tampa Bay study is available on their website at www.tbrpc.org/tampabaydisaster/sres2010.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Matthew's structure still isn't all that great, despite the impressive convection:



Still taking in some shear today.
The models seem to be coming into better agreement with exception of the UKMET and ECMWF. These models have the storm dissipating over Central America while the GFS (06z), NOGAPS (00z), HWRF (06z) and GFDL (06z) are all in agreement that the storm will eventually head NNE towards Cuba/Florida. Since the gloabal (UKMET and ECMWF) models only run every 12 hours, it will be interesting to see if the 12z runs come more in line with the other models. One more thing, while last year the model that performed the best was the Euro model (ECMWF), this year it has not performed well and has had a rough time initializing storms and has been consistent in overdoing the ridge.
Quoting utilaeastwind:
It appears that Matthew is now slowing down. Possible turn to the left may come soon.


CORRECTION
Turn to the right.
2817. Jax82
I copied this from Sammy, figured it was good to post again. There is a method to Jeff's forecasting to FL this time.

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]

Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, and 1935, as well as the major hurricanes Donna and Betsy, all of which came through a Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 2,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd and Gert in 1999, which both were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute.[1]

The first Hebert Box is located east of Puerto Rico over the US Virgin Islands, between 15° and 20° north latitude and 60° to 65° west longitude. This was the first area that Hebert discovered, and provides an indication for the behavior of Cape Verde type storms, which form off of the western coast of Africa near the islands of the same name. This first box is useful for storms that typically form in the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season (June through early September).

The second Hebert Box is located over the Cayman Islands between 15° and 20° north latitude and 80° to 85° west longitude. This was the second discovered, and provides an indication for the behavior of storms that will move north to hit Florida. These are usually late-season storms that form in this region in late September and October, and this box is mostly concerned with them.[2]





Quoting 1900hurricane:
Matthew's structure still isn't all that great, despite the impressive convection:

Exactly. Convection good, structure bad
Matthew is only taking the southern track long enough to get under the Box :)



2821. breald
Quoting cat5hurricane:


Here's the latest (06Z) GFS run depicting this. It's a little ways off yet, but it appears to want to at least hug the Eastern Seaboard before hiting the coast. Link


I hope that scenario does not play out. It looks to be a 960 low pressure right on top of me. I find it hard to believe that it will be stronger hitting the northeast coast than Florida.
I best guess is that it is more likely something like the 6z GFS shows to occur, then not likely. I go for odds of 60/40 at this time.
Quoting breald:


I hope that scenario does not play out. It looks to be a 960 low pressure right on top of me. I find it hard to believe that it will be stronger hitting the northeast coast than Florida.


Most likely the 960 pressure is what it is at landfall in FL as well. Maybe 965 with slight deepening to 960 as it moves NE. Strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 up the coast IMO.
2828. MahFL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

06GFS seems like the most believable scenario, IMO. It's not the first time it's showed it either, ECMWF00Z is kinda on board with the same scenario. This is where my thoughts reside, no Nicole, Matthew all the way.


That output has the low too far north over Honduras.
Quoting breald:


I hope that scenario does not play out. It looks to be a 960 low pressure right on top of me. I find it hard to believe that it will be stronger hitting the northeast coast than Florida.

Yeah, we're keeping an eye on the Gulf Coast, Central America, and NOW perhaps the Mid-Atlanic down the road. Let's hope not any of the three!

I personally do not see him surviving his run-in with the rugged terrain of Hunduras; but by no means am I letting my guard down for anybody just yet.
2832. breald
Good one Storm Junkie...LOL
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Still taking in some shear today.

Yeah...imagery really suggests that he's being impacted by that to some degree.
2834. divdog
Have not heard the w track or the c track mentioned this morning. Heard it about 20 times an hour yesterday. what a difference a day makes.
I have my doubts that the NHC forecast is correct, with respect to intensity .... at least prior to hitting the Yucatan(Belize,) and especially as he crosses the Western Caribbean Sea. As shown on [the previous page,] these waters are the warmest I've ever seen in this area, setting all time records this year, and while there is plenty of dry air on the Continent which can spill into the circulation, there's also the possibility of this thing drawing up a tongue of moisture from the Eastern Pacific
2838. breald
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah, we're keeping an eye on the Gulf Coast, Central America, and NOW perhaps the Mid-Atlanic down the road. Let's hope not any of the three!

I personally do not see him surviving his run-in with the rugged terrain of Hunduras; but by no means am I letting my guard down for anybody just yet.



Me either. Only time will tell.

2839. GS121
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah, we're keeping an eye on the Gulf Coast, Central America, and NOW perhaps the Mid-Atlanic down the road. Let's hope not any of the three!

I personally do not see him surviving his run-in with the rugged terrain of Hunduras; but by no means am I letting my guard down for anybody just yet.



leave for walt disney world in 16 days. live on the coast where IVAN hit in alabama. i know there is still a chance of a hit in alabama now but how much of a chance to you think?

regarding disney, hopefully with it being 16 days out, think the most that will happen in orlando might be rain?
2840. FLdewey
Geez hopefully this thing is out in 16 days... but Dizzneee rarely closes.... they bolt down the tea cups pretty securely.
Quoting MahFL:


That output has the low too far north over Honduras.


We'll see how it plays out today and tomorrow, Mattie is still taking in some shear today and multiple LLC's were noted on the 5am from the NHC.
Met Service of Jamaica

September 25, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURES…Spiral bands associated with Tropical storm Matthew south of Jamaica.

Comment
Comment… Outer rain bands associated with Tropical storm Matthew are expected to produce increased rainfall especially over southern parishes today as the system moves westward away from Jamaica.


24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms mainly over southern parishes.
This Afternoon… Cloudy with outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms across sections of most parishes.
Windy along southern coastal areas.
Tonight… Cloudy with isolated thunderstorms.

3-DAYS FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Sat… Isolated morning showers across eastern parishes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across most
parishes during the afternoon.
Sun&Mon… Widespread showers and thunderstorms across the island.

Regionally… Tropical storm Matthew located 390 kilometres east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.
Tropical storm Lisa located 475 kilometres northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

cdj
2844. GS121
Quoting FLdewey:
Geez hopefully this thing is out in 16 days... but Dizzneee rarely closes.... they bolt down the tea cups pretty securely.
mostly talking about any storms behind matthews. hope they will be effecting land after the trip this far out & not even formed yet
Quoting Times2:
If only we had someone on here who KNEW WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT!!!!!! There is no scenario right now that has any solid validity. JMO


Try the blog down the road its really good. LOL...Actually anyone that claims they know what Matthew will do is clueless right now. That is a fact!
Looks like matthew is crashing right into the Yucatan and fizzling.
Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
September 24, 2010 – 5:00 a.m.

***TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA***

*** LISA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ***

At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 14.2 degrees north and longitude 79.3 degrees west or about 445 kilometres east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua.

Matthew is moving toward the west near 28 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the centre of the Matthew is expected to be near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 km/h, with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Matthew could become a hurricane today.

Showers and thunderstorms from the outer bands of Matthew are forecast to continue affecting the cays and banks south of Jamaica today and tonight. Sections of southern parishes are expected to experience increased rainfall today and tonight as the system moves south of the island.

Fishers and other marine interests, particularly over southern waters, are still being advised not to venture far from port as thunderstorms, above-normal wave heights and strong gusty winds are likely.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Meanwhile...

At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 18.4 degrees north and longitude 27.7 degrees west or about 475 kilometres northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Lisa is moving toward the northeast near 7 km/h and a turn toward the north and north-northwest is expected tomorrow with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 km/h, with higher gusts. Lisa could strengthen slightly today but is expected to weaken to a Tropical Depression over the weekend.


Tropical Storm Lisa is not a threat to Jamaica.
cdj
2849. FLdewey
Quoting GS121:
mostly talking about any storms behind matthews. hope they will be effecting land after the trip this far out & not even formed yet

Fair enough... that's always the most unsettling part of vacations for sure. Hopefully the shower curtain will keep it clear for ya.
Mathew is the topic of the day but this si really interesting(to me as a sailor anyway).
Lisa has reversed the trade winds below below 15N between 30-45W. Now yes a hurricane always changes them as it go's by but this is a more sustained event over a longer swath of ocean since Lisa has just been sitting there of the CV islands
look at the low level winds here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html
2851. Grothar



Soooo the GFS creates a Superstorm out of Matthew or Nicole. Does the same thing it wanted to do with Wilma in 2005.
2853. FLdewey
You know that I love you boy... hot like Mexico rejoice....

Quoting GS121:



leave for walt disney world in 16 days. live on the coast where IVAN hit in alabama. i know there is still a chance of a hit in alabama now but how much of a chance to you think?

regarding disney, hopefully with it being 16 days out, think the most that will happen in orlando might be rain?

Doesn't appear to be that likely at THIS point IMO. Although it's still up for grabs as anywhere in the Gulf could be under the gun...not only from this particlar system but perhaps the ensuing one on it's tail.

Furthermore, it is realistically still near the peak of the season so I would not be surpised if FL is impacted by anything tropical 2-3 weeks out. Exactly when & where to pinpoint...it's just way too early to be specific.

Have a great trip, btw!
Quoting FLdewey:
Geez hopefully this thing is out in 16 days... but Dizzneee rarely closes.... they bolt down the tea cups pretty securely.


Shoot, that far out, I'd be worried about one of these other supposed systems that's going to hit in FL in October.
2856. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:
Matthew is only taking the southern track long enough to get under the Box :)





It is almost like it knows... Somehow.
GOING TO HIT LAND SOON..
Quoting Times2:
If only we had someone on here who KNEW WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT!!!!!! There is no scenario right now that has any solid validity. JMO


I haven't seen anyone discuss any scenario solidly. There is still extreme differences in the models and equal chances of Matthew dying over CA or a Cat 5 developing in the Gulf of Honduras. I personally prefer the GFS's handling of Matthew and how this will all evolve. A lot of opinions flying around today as there are many options on the table. However, at this point Matthew is still disorganized enough to not strengthen all that much over the next 24hrs, again IMO.
2862. Grothar
If Matthew is fizzling, no one told him. Look at those incredible cold cloud tops.

2863. Times2
Only time will tell how many times someone on the blog says "only time will tell", lol. Sorry it's just funny to me...does any of us have a job?
2864. flsky
Quoting tacoman:
guys its pure and simple matthew has no where to go but over land..he hasn't slown down and continues to move a little n of due west...matthew will be on shore in hondouras and continue to truck through beliez causing copious amounts of rain im saying 25 inches is not out of possibility..it will then go over the yucatan where if he is lucky he will make it all the way to the boc loking like a wounded duck.....this will be late tuesday or wednesday if this happens..i think by that time the cut off low centered over the se will be out and the high will be building back in...thats the way i see it now ...i have been 100% on the money...imo matthew doesnt survivie the long track over land...which is going to pain all you fla people...be patient you may get nikki

Thanks for your guess. Oh, and thank you for the new addition to my list of dubious vocabulary - "slown." haha
2865. FLdewey
Quoting Dakster:


It is almost like it knows... Somehow.

LOL... the force is strong in this one.
NEW BLOG
NEW BLOG
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
GOING TO HIT LAND SOON..

I thought matthew's coc was pounding Honduras.
Where is Drakoen or Hurricane23?
The little disturbance at 57W 13N is what is supposed to run into the Low pressure area that is left by Mathew. And since it looks like his convection is getting sheared off to the W because the upper level winds are stronger then the low level at least for the moment he will be relatively weak happily for Honduras/Roatan/Belize
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
2874. breald
Quoting flsky:

Thanks for your guess. Oh, and thank you for the new addition to my list of dubious vocabulary - "slown." haha


Leave him be he has been watching too many Sarah Palin interviews....LOL.

Taco back away from fox news before it is too late.
Good morning, all, ^_^.
Quoting RobbWilder:
Where is Drakoen or Hurricane23?
Have not seen Drak for weeks...
Quoting RobbWilder:
Where is Drakoen or Hurricane23?

u know they have a life u know drakoen has college and the same with 23
2878. swlavp
Quoting btwntx08:

u know they have a life u know drakoen has college and the same with 23


We know...u know
Quoting sailingallover:
Have not seen Drak for weeks...

oh i saw hin post yesterday
Yo, Ike, you around?
this morning the news on the front that was expected to pull matthew n. is going to flatten out over e.tx./la. what else could turn mat. n. maybe the front is going to push it s. like the models show mat. doing and then back out into the Caribbean as remnants, and reform once it gets out in water like that image tampaspin posted(2824). i think that post tells the story of mat. best. yesterday the word was that this front was going to be strong, now its not. the models started picking up on this yesterday. which was reflected in the model runs that first started turning it s. or dissipating mat. i think that tampaspins model is awesome. i would like to see a longer range for that model. i do not know much about weather, and i am getting my front information from twc.:)but my opinion comes from what the models started saying yesterday, and what i heard this morning about the front flattening out. just using common sense thinking with the front flattening out,the front might push the storm s. & e. causing mat. to reform once it enters the Caribbean. if i am wrong or way off can someone please explain to me why, and tell me what will be the steering factor for mat.? thanks in advance
Quoting btwntx08:

u know they have a life u know drakoen has college and the same with 23


u know usually when stuff starts to cocern florida they pop up. u know they are both pretty knowledgeable. u know
why are so many messages on here hidden?
You know this storm is gonna be hard to forecast, when even the ''NHC'' doesn't know where he'll go,
Morning....Does anyone feel October could be an active month for the carribean and GOM?? I fear would could have a couple US hits next month??
2887. hcubed
Quoting smartinwx:
why are so many messages on here hidden?


Troll activity.
I love the cone from the NHC. No way it ends outside that thing!