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Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on August 07, 2011

As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.


Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.


Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.

As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.


Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center

If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Methurricanes:

Why people say New England, no one care, why cant we say the carolinas?


Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.
Back tomorrow. G'nite.
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL. Why would I have you on ignore? I don't ignore good bloggers. :-)

And that post was dripping with sarcasm.
For post 989 I think as long as that drought over Texas is fuling the high it won't break down.Heck it could even last into october.And by October the chances for a western gulf coast stike decreases due to trofs swinging down.
the eastern gulf I'm not to sure.
1004. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Early in her career, she was in a Three Stooges short.


She did the Marx Brothers, too I believe.
1005. Patrap
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Pat - did you see Zep at the Maravich when they came?


O yeah,,stood in the Sleet in Feb for those tickets in Red Stick. And they were 2 Hours late for that show and with no opener,,it was getting kinda fuzzy like in there.

They made the Mistake of Landing in NOLA and then Limo-ing up I-10 to BR. Then they found all them folks going the same way as well. Also had tickets for the July Show in the Dome in NOLA and we all know how that went, sadly.

Still have the ticket too.

$10.25
Quoting Grothar:


She did the Marx Brothers, too I believe.


might wanna rephrase that
Night all. Good to see the nut balls gone. Ready for the next one.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Kori, nice blog the other day. Do more.
I do them anytime there is a system out there. In fact, I'll do one on 92L within the next hour. Keep an eye out!
Quoting ElConando:


Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.


Presslejuice?
Quoting washingtonian115:
For post 989 I think as long as that drought over Texas is fuling the high it won't break down.Heck it could even last into october.And by October the chances for a western gulf coast stike decreases due to trofs swinging down.
the eastern gulf I'm not to sure.


The drought is not what's fueling the ridge. The ridge is what's fueling the drought. While the ground water in Texas may be almost nothing and causing there to be little in the way of moisture, the surface conditions do not drive atmospheric patterns. The pattern is just stuck in place for different reasons in our hemisphere's circulation. One reason is that we are coming off a very strong La Nina and a big ridge over Texas/Southern US is something directly related to La Nina.

Anyway, the atmosphere is driving the drought, not the drought driving the atmosphere.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Presslejuice?


Its a play off Beetlejuice.
Quoting ElConando:


Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.

Bwahahaha!!!That just made me spew my beer out of my nose!
Quoting ElConando:


Its a play off Beetlejuice.


;-)
1014. Grothar
Quoting presslord:


might wanna rephrase that


?

No, really. I think the movie was called "Room Service.
Quoting Grothar:


?

No, really. I think the movie was called "Room Service.


Nevermind, you are too old to get it :P

Just playing with you, Gro.
So any models show anything forming?
Quoting MississippiWx:


The drought is not what's fueling the ridge. The ridge is what's fueling the drought. While the ground water in Texas may be almost nothing and causing there to be little in the way of moisture, the surface conditions do not drive atmospheric patterns. The pattern is just stuck in place for different reasons in our hemisphere's circulation. One reason is that we are coming off a very strong La Nina and a big ridge over Texas/Southern US is something directly related to La Nina.

Anyway, the atmosphere is driving the drought, not the drought driving the atmosphere.
Mmmm on TWC they said the drought was fueling the high??.
1018. Grothar
Quoting KoritheMan:

I do them anytime there is a system out there. In fact, I'll do one on 92L within the next hour. Keep an eye out!


Then I'd only be able to read half of it. I did a blog today, too. Did you see it?
1019. DFWjc
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm on TWC they said the drought was fueling the high??.


you said TWC, enough said right there... LOL

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
So any models show anything forming?
SHIPS and TVCN bring this system up to hurricane strengthen in about three days. Don't think that's likely.

The rest of the models show very little. Dry air is likely to be in an inhibitor.
Quoting Patrap:


O yeah,,stood in the Sleet in Feb for those tickets in Red Stick. And they were 2 Hours late for that show and with no opener,,it was getting kinda fuzzy like in there.

They made the Mistake of Landing in NOLA and then Limo-ing up I-10 to BR. Then they found all them folks going the same way as well. Also had tickets for the July Show in the Dome in NOLA and we all know how that went, sadly.

Still have the ticket too.

$10.25


Man that is awesome! That is def one band I wish I had been able to see (but before my time).
Quoting Grothar:


She did the Marx Brothers, too I believe.


Room Service
Quoting ElConando:


Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.


Oh man, I'm laughing so hard LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:

SHIPS and TVCN bring this system up to hurricane strengthen in about three days. Don't think that's likely.

The rest of the models show very little. Dry air is likely to be in an inhibitor.


We saw how well they did with Emily... First intensity runs had her at Cat 1 or 2 from the ships and one of the VCN's.

Quoting Grothar:


Then I'd only be able to read half of it. I did a blog today, too. Did you see it?
I actually didn't. I just logged on about two hours ago. I just checked, though. I actually kind of agree about the wave behind 92L. The models were indicating that would be the more vigorous of the two, anyway.
1026. 19N81W
its just all quiet....has been really since the early of the season...Emily didnt really have much of a chance...so many contributing factors to slow down this season...I just dont see it making the numbers at this point...well into August and nothing to look at...either the season is later than expected or we really have no idea what to expect from year to year...its not for lack of heat..plenty of that...in a dangerous way...
1027. beell
Quoting MississippiWx:


The drought is not what's fueling the ridge. The ridge is what's fueling the drought. While the ground water in Texas may be almost nothing and causing there to be little in the way of moisture, the surface conditions do not drive atmospheric patterns. The pattern is just stuck in place for different reasons in our hemisphere's circulation. One reason is that we are coming off a very strong La Nina and a big ridge over Texas/Southern US is something directly related to La Nina.

Anyway, the atmosphere is driving the drought, not the drought driving the atmosphere.


I would agree to a certain extent.

Low soil and vegetation moisture dry out and warm the atmosphere which raises the thickness levels (heights)of the ridge itself. Which can have some influence on the course of the jet stream. Pumping the ridge if you will. But the positive feedback of dry soil and vegetation primarily affects precip.

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


We saw how well they did with Emily... First intensity runs had her at Cat 1 or 2 from the ships and one of the VCN's.
Yep.
Quoting 19N81W:
its just all quiet....has been really since the early of the season...Emily didnt really have much of a chance...so many contributing factors to slow down this season...I just dont see it making the numbers at this point...well into August and nothing to look at...either the season is later than expected or we really have no idea what to expect from year to year...its not for lack of heat..plenty of that...in a dangerous way...


I know, this season is going to be a bust, we've only had five named storms when the average for this time is 1/2.

Totally inactive.

Quoting 19N81W:
its just all quiet....has been really since the early of the season...Emily didnt really have much of a chance...so many contributing factors to slow down this season...I just dont see it making the numbers at this point...well into August and nothing to look at...either the season is later than expected or we really have no idea what to expect from year to year...its not for lack of heat..plenty of that...in a dangerous way...
2007 started off much slower than this, and we ended up with 15 storms.
1031. lucreto
I just laugh whenever I here "this system is having trouble developing because of that massive plume of Saharan Dust" Does SAL hinder cyclone development? Yes almost certainly... is it a wave killer? Not for a strong wave that can moisten its surroundings sufficiently. So for the people that say that a wave is not developing do to SAL, that wave probably is not even worth tracking, or there are other conditions namely lack of latitude that are affecting it.

Now THAT'S "room service"...

Was reading a book called "North Carolina Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes written in 1995 that references Dr. Gray's prediction that we may be about to enter a 20 to 40 year cycle of increased tropical activity.  Thought that was pretty prophetic since NC had been in a pretty slow pattern from the late 60s through the mid-90s.
Quoting Grothar:


She did the Marx Brothers, too I believe.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know, this season is going to be a bust, we've only had five named storms when the average for this time is 1/2.

Totally inactive.


You forgot "SARCASM FLAG: ON" haha

In all seriousness though, this is tied with the second-most busiest season up to this point.
Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.

That's got to be one of the funniest blog comments I have ever read. LMAO

Quoting DFWjc:


you said TWC, enough said right there... LOL
Not to mention it's from one of the Newbies...(shivers).
Quoting 19N81W:
its just all quiet....has been really since the early of the season...Emily didnt really have much of a chance...so many contributing factors to slow down this season...I just dont see it making the numbers at this point...well into August and nothing to look at...either the season is later than expected or we really have no idea what to expect from year to year...its not for lack of heat..plenty of that...in a dangerous way...
i wouldn't be so quick.It only takes one.2010 started out slow and had the same problems with all of the dry air and shear.However that changed in the last two weeks in August.
Quoting MississippiWx:


The drought is not what's fueling the ridge. The ridge is what's fueling the drought. While the ground water in Texas may be almost nothing and causing there to be little in the way of moisture, the surface conditions do not drive atmospheric patterns. The pattern is just stuck in place for different reasons in our hemisphere's circulation. One reason is that we are coming off a very strong La Nina and a big ridge over Texas/Southern US is something directly related to La Nina.

Anyway, the atmosphere is driving the drought, not the drought driving the atmosphere.

Mostly this is true. However, the Texas drought has grown to such a magnitude that it is beginning to feed back on itself. The lack of moisture over the area is causing the atmosphere to dry out, allowing the air to heat up more easily and making it harder for precipitation to fall in any meaningful amounts. The extended heatwave and the demise of Don are examples of that. I was on a weather chat with Dr. Greg Forbes this past April and he mentioned that the drought might be in the stages of starting to self-perpetuate itself. Like I said, that was back in April. Since then, I've also asked one of my professors about this (Dr. Nielson-Gammon, the State Climatologist of Texas), and he also believes that this is happening. It's unfortunately getting to the point that we will probably need something huge to break this drought. Like Spring 1957 Flood Event huge or Hurricane Beulah huge.
Quoting KoritheMan:

2007 started off much slower than this, and we ended up with 15 storms.


Try last year, which was only on Colin.. ended up with 19. We're at 5 named storms already, that is on pair with 2008. Anyone saying this season is going to be a bust is wrong, plain and simple.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm on TWC they said the drought was fueling the high??.


Well, you should consider your source. Lol. Conditions at the surface are on a much smaller scale than what goes on in the atmosphere itself. The image I created below is basically the pattern La Nina brings to the United States and you can see how a locked-in pattern like this one would bring Texas/Oklahoma serious drought issues.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting beell:


I would agree to a certain extent.

Low soil and vegetation moisture dry out and warm the atmosphere which raises the thickness levels (heights)of the ridge itself. Which can have some influence on the course of the jet stream. Pumping the ridge if you will. But the positive feedback of dry soil and vegetation primarily affects precip.

Dang, beaten to it... :P
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Mostly this is true. However, the Texas drought has grown to such a magnitude that it is beginning to feed back on itself. The lack of moisture over the area is causing the atmosphere to dry out, allowing the air to heat up more easily and making it harder for precipitation to fall in any meaningful amounts. The extended heatwave and the demise of Don are examples of that. I was on a weather chat with Dr. Greg Forbes this past April and he mentioned that the drought might be in the stages of starting to self-perpetuate itself. Like I said, that was back in April. Since then, I've also asked one of my professors about this (Dr. Nielson-Gammon, the State Climatologist of Texas), and he also believes that this is happening. It's unfortunately getting to the point that we will probably need something huge to break this drought. Like Spring 1957 Flood Event huge or Hurricane Beulah huge.
Hurricane Ike huge.
Quoting druseljic:
Because if you say it three times fast he turns into Presslejuice.

That's got to be one of the funniest blog comments I have ever read. LMAO



I'm thinkin' of changin' my handle to 'Presslejuice'
1042. beell
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Dang, beaten to it... :P


Good job anyway, Aggie!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, you should consider your source. Lol. Conditions at the surface are on a much smaller scale than what goes on in the atmosphere itself. The image I created below is basically the pattern La Nina brings to the United States and you can see how a locked-in pattern like this one would bring Texas/Oklahoma serious drought issues.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
If I could only have the power to take that high and smash it Texas/OK would be very happy.Damn...
Quoting presslord:


I'm thinkin' of changin' my handle to 'Presslejuice'


I dare you!!!!!
1045. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Room Service



See I was right. :) Thanks for the link.
1046. beell
Anyway, we have seen 500mb heights of 600dam over us lately. Harder for any weather system to penetrate that.
Quoting presslord:


I'm thinkin' of changin' my handle to 'Presslejuice'


CAROLINAS, CAROLINAS, CAROLINAS! SO IT IS WRITTEN, SO IT SHALL BE DONE...ROFLMBO
The fact that we have had 5 named storms by now usually would have the blog somewhat abuzz. The fact that none turned into Hurricanes and even moreso that 2 of the 5 have had quite rough development. I am speaking of Don and Emily of course.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Mostly this is true. However, the Texas drought has grown to such a magnitude that it is beginning to feed back on itself. The lack of moisture over the area is causing the atmosphere to dry out, allowing the air to heat up more easily and making it harder for precipitation to fall in any meaningful amounts. The extended heatwave and the demise of Don are examples of that. I was on a weather chat with Dr. Greg Forbes this past April and he mentioned that the drought might be in the stages of starting to self-perpetuate itself. Like I said, that was back in April. Since then, I've also asked one of my professors about this (Dr. Nielson-Gammon, the State Climatologist of Texas), and he also believes that this is happening. It's unfortunately getting to the point that we will probably need something huge to break this drought. Like Spring 1957 Flood Event huge or Hurricane Beulah huge.


I hinted at this in my post if you read like one or two sentences into it. However, when the atmosphere decides it is time to change, it changes. It really doesn't worry about what is happening at the surface (land that is...ocean surface is different). While I agree that the extremely low moisture content in the soil is helping to heat the atmosphere more, it's still not locking this pattern in place by itself.
1050. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know, this season is going to be a bust, we've only had five named storms when the average for this time is 1/2.

Totally inactive.


Do you think it's because SAL been active this year more than others?
1051. 19N81W
every named storm this season was clinging to storm status...all of them struggled...barely making the requirements to be named and none of them amounting to much...very weak at best...I call an inactive season...other factors at play here....look at the atlantic...heck look at the caribbean...if sst's are this high and barely a decent area of convective activity?...we need someone to step in an describe what is going on....forget the 'graph' that is closing in on its peak with nothing to show...I think 05 was a peak and it has been slowing down since then...
Quoting DFWjc:


Do you think it's because SAL been active this year more than others?


I was being sarcastic. To add further to your comment, the SAL this year has been notably less than that of other years, such as last. This season thus far has been well above normal, and there is a good chance that will continue through August and September.
Quoting KoritheMan:

The heat ridge may block any western or northern Gulf Coast hits, but the eastern Gulf is still at risk. Also, that ridge says nothing about the chances of an east coast landfall. Remember, Emily managed to slip through a weakness between the central United States ridge, and the western periphery of the Bermuda high.
More like "was forced through"....

Quoting twincomanche:
Gosh I can't even remember the last time a hurricane hit Georgia. Does that ever happen?
You wouldn't, unless u r Grothar... 1898? 1900? Something like that? Last time they had a bad storm make landfall on that stretch of coast.

Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me on ignore.But I think that's pretty impossible to forecast so far out.Alot of things could change.
u know, DC115? if u say this ONE MORE TIME I am going to smack you with a fish. Through the screen. [Twack] I got one right here on the side-a me....

U been here too long now not to be a part of the blog... and maybe two whole people [can't figure out who, but maybe] have you on ignore...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was being sarcastic. To add further to your comment, the SAL this year has been notably less than that of other years, such as last. This season thus far has been well above normal, and there is a good chance that will continue through August and September.


Sarcasm is sooooo much easier when it is heard lol...maybe one day the blog will have audio...oh wait...that would mean we would have to listen to trolls...i wonder if when we put them on ignore it would sound like a bunch of people closed up in a closet......
Lol 19n91w the numbers arent gonna match this season lol u just ordered a plate of crow for the end of the year is what u did,just watch.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


CAROLINAS, CAROLINAS, CAROLINAS! SO IT IS WRITTEN, SO IT SHALL BE DONE...ROFLMBO



ggggrrrrrrr
Quoting 19N81W:
every named storm this season was clinging to storm status...all of them struggled...barely making the requirements to be named and none of them amounting to much...very weak at best...I call an inactive season...other factors at play here....look at the atlantic...heck look at the caribbean...if sst's are this high and barely a decent area of convective activity?...we need someone to step in an describe what is going on....forget the 'graph' that is closing in on its peak with nothing to show...I think 05 was a peak and it has been slowing down since then...


If things slowed down after 2005, what do you call 2007, 2008 and 2010? 2010 just had 19 named storms, the 3rd most active season in history.

The lack of convection can be directly related to the downward phase of the MJO and a large area of SAL. Simple as that.
Quoting 19N81W:
every named storm this season was clinging to storm status...all of them struggled...barely making the requirements to be named and none of them amounting to much...very weak at best...I call an inactive season...other factors at play here....look at the atlantic...heck look at the caribbean...if sst's are this high and barely a decent area of convective activity?...we need someone to step in an describe what is going on....forget the 'graph' that is closing in on its peak with nothing to show...I think 05 was a peak and it has been slowing down since then...


Arlene was not a struggling storm, it didn't make it to hurricane status because of the limited amount of time that it had before making landfall. I will agree, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily have been fairly weak, but they still all met the requirements for a tropical storm. Heck, Bret and Cindy also pushed hurricane status at peak intensity, with an eye feature in both systems. The storms have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Wind shear has been the main problem so far this season, but it is lower than it has ever been right now.

Just because none of the storms haven't reached hurricane status yet, that doesn't mean that the season is inactive. Plus, intensity or amount of named storms doesn't matter, its the impact that does.
Quoting presslord:



ggggrrrrrrr



awwwww....come on now...you know you love me :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
More like "was forced through"....

You wouldn't, unless u r Grothar... 1898? 1900? Something like that? Last time they had a bad storm make landfall on that stretch of coast.

u know, DC115? if u say this ONE MORE TIME I am going to smack you with a fish. Through the screen. [Twack] I got one right here on the side-a me....

U been here too long now not to be a part of the blog... and maybe two whole people [can't figure out who, but maybe] have you on ignore...

I asked that becuse during the Emily ark I asked a few question from the people I think are the "experts" on the site and never got a respone.And I asked many times.So when that happens I suspect they have me on ignore.(P.S I know cybreteddy has me on his list)
1061. JFV2012
Good evening, all, =(.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


Sarcasm is sooooo much easier when it is heard lol...maybe one day the blog will have audio...oh wait...that would mean we would have to listen to trolls...i wonder if when we put them on ignore it would sound like a bunch of people closed up in a closet......


lol.
1063. 19N81W
txhurricane....I am guesing that was for me...to be honest all we want is rain...and all I want is rain for you guys and lots of it....I am struggling to find anything that suggests this 'season' will produce much...that being said I really hope it gives u some rain...keep me in mind this setup keeps us kinda dry as well...
Quoting MississippiWx:


If things slowed down after 2005, what do you call 2007, 2008 and 2010? 2010 just had 19 named storms, the 3rd most active season in history.

The lack of convection can be directly related to the downward phase of the MJO and a large area of SAL. Simple as that.

Agreed,all points lead to an active end of this month and onward thru Oct.
Quoting 19N81W:
its just all quiet....has been really since the early of the season...Emily didnt really have much of a chance...so many contributing factors to slow down this season...I just dont see it making the numbers at this point...well into August and nothing to look at...either the season is later than expected or we really have no idea what to expect from year to year...its not for lack of heat..plenty of that...in a dangerous way...
I think last year made a believer out of me, numbers-wise. I still don't expect us to do much more than 16 altogether. What concerns me is they're expecting 9 of the next 11 to be hurricanes. What is even more of concern is that when it's ready, the ATL seems to have no problem turning out 9 hurricanes in a row.

So I'm watching, and not disbelieving... yet.
No doubt some people's opinions are clouded by recent seasons wherein there were many storms and several landfalling TCs. 

The fact remains that a LOT of factors must align for a TC to form, then to develop, and then to landfall in a specific region.  For those who want the moisture (or the wishcasters who want the excitement), it is little wonder that these recent "watched pots" that haven't "boiled" lead some of them to the erroneous conclusion that this season is "slow".
Quoting tiggeriffic:



awwwww....come on now...you know you love me :)


yea...I do....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Arlene was not a struggling storm, it didn't make it to hurricane status because of the limited amount of time that it had before making landfall. I will agree, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily have been fairly weak, but they still all met the requirements for a tropical storm. Heck, Bret and Cindy also pushed hurricane status at peak intensity, with an eye feature in both systems. The storms have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Wind shear has been the main problem so far this season, but it is lower than it has ever been right now.

Just because none of the storms haven't reached hurricane status yet, that doesn't mean that the season is inactive. Plus, intensity or amount of named storms doesn't matter, its the impact that does.

Well said,exactly what I'm talking about as well.
1069. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know, this season is going to be a bust, we've only had five named storms when the average for this time is 1/2.

Totally inactive.


How can you have 1/2 a storm?
Even more bad news for Texas/drought-stricken South...



Quoting presslord:


yea...I do....


Went to Edisto yesterday...waves were rockin 3-5 at a time, the rip was extreme...it even took out the hubby and me a few times and we are use to the ocean...we looked more like tourists out there than residents...
Quoting floodzonenc:
Now THAT'S "room service"...

Was reading a book called "North Carolina Hurricane History" by Jay Barnes written in 1995 that references Dr. Gray's prediction that we may be about to enter a 20 to 40 year cycle of increased tropical activity.  Thought that was pretty prophetic since NC had been in a pretty slow pattern from the late 60s through the mid-90s.

I'm starting to put more credence in the PDO theory of ATL tropical activity. Last Cold PDO we had corresponded fairly well to our last active period in the basin. Not saying that's the only influence, mind u, but saying it may be a major enhancement.
1073. 19N81W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Arlene was not a struggling storm, it didn't make it to hurricane status because of the limited amount of time that it had before making landfall. I will agree, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily have been fairly weak, but they still all met the requirements for a tropical storm. Heck, Bret and Cindy also pushed hurricane status at peak intensity, with an eye feature in both systems. The storms have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Wind shear has been the main problem so far this season, but it is lower than it has ever been right now.

Just because none of the storms haven't reached hurricane status yet, that doesn't mean that the season is inactive. Plus, intensity or amount of named storms doesn't matter, its the impact that does.


your right about Arlene....shear indeed has played a role...my issue is the amount of dry air in the tropics...tons of it...relative humidity is low here..seems very dry compared to other years...in any event given its August I think the season will be downgraded...and while a major storm is still likely nothing suggests the season will support the forcast...
1074. Mucinex
*The Great Karnak holds the envelope to his turban*

"A Redhead, a rubber chicken, a cigar and a bicycle horn"

Quoting Grothar:


She did the Marx Brothers, too I believe.


Also, cause I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, shouldn't the 00z model runs be out by now?
1075. nigel20
Whats up everyone?
Don?  Well... maybe he was 1/3rd.
Quoting Grothar:


How can you have 1/2 a storm?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Arlene was not a struggling storm, it didn't make it to hurricane status because of the limited amount of time that it had before making landfall. I will agree, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily have been fairly weak, but they still all met the requirements for a tropical storm. Heck, Bret and Cindy also pushed hurricane status at peak intensity, with an eye feature in both systems. The storms have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Wind shear has been the main problem so far this season, but it is lower than it has ever been right now.

Just because none of the storms haven't reached hurricane status yet, that doesn't mean that the season is inactive. Plus, intensity or amount of named storms doesn't matter, its the impact that does.
2007 only had two major hurricanes.Both reached cat 5 status TWO times.All the other storms were weak though.But things can and will surorise it.
Quoting tiggeriffic:


Went to Edisto yesterday...waves were rockin 3-5 at a time, the rip was extreme...it even took out the hubby and me a few times and we are use to the ocean...we looked more like tourists out there than residents...


someday we're gonna retire to Edisto
1079. hahaguy
Quoting washingtonian115:
2007 only had two major hurricanes.Both reached cat 5 status TWO times.All the other storms were weak though.But things can and will surorise it.


They both also made landfall as cat 5's
TropicalAnalystwx13,
When you have to deal with the damage of a hurricane yourself, you'll be happy to have a season be a bust. But this one is only beginning.
Quoting presslord:


someday we're gonna retire to Edisto


We got a little pop up thursday...got it all cleaned up, made the repairs that needed to be done, spent part of the weekend getting all the stuff we will need and we are gonna go to Edisto in the next couple weeks for a weekend...i soooooo can't wait...nice camp ground out there...beach, crabbing, fishing...as long as 92 doesn't come round and mess it up for us that is lol...
Quoting hahaguy:


They both also made landfall as cat 5's
Oh yeah and I foregot to mention this as well!!!!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
TropicalAnalystwx13,
When you have to deal with the damage of a hurricane yourself, you'll be happy to have a season be a bust. But this one is only beginning.
I was affected by hurricane Isabel back in 2003.I lost power for two weeks.Not to mention the summer heat had returned.
Quoting 19N81W:


your right about Arlene....shear indeed has played a role...my issue is the amount of dry air in the tropics...tons of it...relative humidity is low here..seems very dry compared to other years...in any event given its August I think the season will be downgraded...and while a major storm is still likely nothing suggests the season will support the forcast...


Dry air is expected to plague the Atlantic at this time of the year, it always has, and always will. Why do you think most of the storms developed after 50W in 2005? Its because of the dry air that the Eastern Atlantic held. Dry air/SAL is less this year than it has been in past years, especially last year. But did all that dry air/SAL stop 2010 from being the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded? No. It is only early August, you cannot say that this season will be inactive this far into the season. This time in 2004, you know how many named storms we had? Two. In 2010, you know how many named storms we had? Three. All signs point to an uptick in activity in 10 days or so, and we should see a lot more storms, that are a lot stronger. Wait until September before you start seeing that a season will be inactive, especially since we've not even come close to the peak of the season yet.
Quoting Grothar:


How can you have 1/2 a storm?


When the storm suffers from Cyclogenesis Disfunction.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane Ike huge.

Precisely. I picked those two examples though because they are two of the most prolific rainmakers in Texas History. Hurricane Beulah dropped tremendous amounts of rain over nearly unprecedented areas, causing massive flooding through the state:



Also, the Spring 1957 Flood Event is what ended the Great 50's Drought. I couldn't find a rainfall map from the event, but this statewide average precipitation chart from April and May shows exactly how much rain fell from the event. Keep in mind that this is encompasses the entire state:



That's over a foot of rain averaged over the entire state for April and May of that year. Places in Texas that were in dire drought conditions prior to the flood event were now flooding.
Quoting 19N81W:
every named storm this season was clinging to storm status...all of them struggled...barely making the requirements to be named and none of them amounting to much...very weak at best...I call an inactive season...other factors at play here....look at the atlantic...heck look at the caribbean...if sst's are this high and barely a decent area of convective activity?...we need someone to step in an describe what is going on....forget the 'graph' that is closing in on its peak with nothing to show...I think 05 was a peak and it has been slowing down since then...
However, we saw these 5 weak storms during a part of the season where we often don't see one, or even two storms form. Someone posted earlier a storm that hit PR which was the 1st storm of the season - on July 31st. My concern is that we've seen 5 - FIVE - storms struggle against climatology to be named and tracked. BEFORE the traditional "ramp-up" point about 3 - 7 days from now.

I'm not seeing the change this week, but I'm seeing the seeds of it. Water's warm enough; ITCZ is high enough; AEW train has picked up the pace; AB high is shifting. I want to hope we'll be this relaxed about the basin 10 days from now, but I don't expect it.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
TropicalAnalystwx13,
When you have to deal with the damage of a hurricane yourself, you'll be happy to have a season be a bust. But this one is only beginning.


I've been through several hurricanes before, although I don't remember a lot of them. I know that hurricanes are destructive and people wish that the season will be inactive, but you cant go around in early AUGUST and say that the season will be inactive when most signs point to an above average to hyperactive season.

1088. 19N81W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air is expected to plague the Atlantic at this time of the year, it always has, and always will. Why do you think most of the storms developed after 50W in 2005? Its because of the dry air that the Eastern Atlantic held. Dry air/SAL is less this year than it has been in past years, especially last year. But did all that dry air/SAL stop 2010 from being the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded? No. It is only early August, you cannot say that this season will be inactive this far into the season. This time in 2004, you know how many named storms we had? Two. In 2010, you know how many named storms we had? Three. All signs point to an uptick in activity in 10 days or so, and we should see a lot more storms, that are a lot stronger. Wait until September before you start seeing that a season will be inactive, especially since we've not even come close to the peak of the season yet.
Another thing to add to the TX drought is that the flow coming from the Pacific could have some effects as well. Just brainstorming a bit, but since we are in the cool phase of the PDO the waters several degrees west of Mexico and the US are well below normal. This is causing the atmosphere there to be even more stable than normal, with less moisture available. The dry, stable air from the Eastern Pacific could also be pulled into Texas around the ridge. It is already known that a -PDO can influence La Nina to stick around longer due to the cold waters that extend to the equator. Here is the SST anomaly map.

CD is completely treatable with medication.  You'll be throwing a football through a tire swing in no time... :)
Quoting ElConando:


When the storm suffers from Cyclogenesis Disfunction.

1091. nigel20
Quoting 19N81W:


your right about Arlene....shear indeed has played a role...my issue is the amount of dry air in the tropics...tons of it...relative humidity is low here..seems very dry compared to other years...in any event given its August I think the season will be downgraded...and while a major storm is still likely nothing suggests the season will support the forcast...
I guess we'll see who's point is proven come November 2011.
1093. Grothar
Quoting Mucinex:
*The Great Karnak holds the envelope to his turban*

"A Redhead, a rubber chicken, a cigar and a bicycle horn"



Also, cause I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, shouldn't the 00z model runs be out by now?


Clever catch on that one. I think all the models are late. I have been looking for updates and nothing new in yet. They must be scrambling.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air is expected to plague the Atlantic at this time of the year, it always has, and always will. Why do you think most of the storms developed after 50W in 2005? Its because of the dry air that the Eastern Atlantic held. Dry air/SAL is less this year than it has been in past years, especially last year. But did all that dry air/SAL stop 2010 from being the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded? No. It is only early August, you cannot say that this season will be inactive this far into the season. This time in 2004, you know how many named storms we had? Two. In 2010, you know how many named storms we had? Three. All signs point to an uptick in activity in 10 days or so, and we should see a lot more storms, that are a lot stronger. Wait until September before you start seeing that a season will be inactive, especially since we've not even come close to the peak of the season yet.

+100
Quoting 19N81W:


I thought 2005 was the record?


2005 was the record...
1097. Grothar
Quoting floodzonenc:
Don?  Well... maybe he was 1/3rd.



You have a point. Forgot that one.
xx/INV/92L
APPROACHING RANGE

Quoting floodzonenc:
CD is completely treatable with medication.  You'll be throwing a football through a tire swing in no time... :)



now if there was a pill to give the models so they could forecast with that precision....unfortunately models are like throwing a football thru the circumfrence of the astrodome
This is the main reason for the lack of thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic basin right now - downward phase of the MJO:

Quoting washingtonian115:
I asked that becuse during the Emily ark I asked a few question from the people I think are the "experts" on the site and never got a respone.And I asked many times.So when that happens I suspect they have me on ignore.(P.S I know cybreteddy has me on his list)
Well, he's prolly one of maybe two. I can't figure out why he'd ignore you. Not like u do anybody anything .... Anyway, that's his loss. I can say the experts on here do a pretty good job of responding 2 questions, but they don't always catch every thing. I've had to repeat stuff that gets in the 45-50 or 95-00 range just because it's likely pple didn't see them..... especially when the blog is superfast, the way it's likely to be once things pick up again. This slowpaced conversation is cool... when we get going, sometimes it's easier to just let the blog flow around you....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air is expected to plague the Atlantic at this time of the year, it always has, and always will. Why do you think most of the storms developed after 50W in 2005? Its because of the dry air that the Eastern Atlantic held. Dry air/SAL is less this year than it has been in past years, especially last year. But did all that dry air/SAL stop 2010 from being the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded? No. It is only early August, you cannot say that this season will be inactive this far into the season. This time in 2004, you know how many named storms we had? Two. In 2010, you know how many named storms we had? Three. All signs point to an uptick in activity in 10 days or so, and we should see a lot more storms, that are a lot stronger. Wait until September before you start seeing that a season will be inactive, especially since we've not even come close to the peak of the season yet.
Nice argumment/points there.
Models are pretty to look at but often are lacking in the knowledge dept.  :P
Quoting tiggeriffic:


now if there was a pill to give the models so they could forecast with that precision....unfortunately models are like throwing a football thru the circumfrence of the astrodome

1104. Patrap
..I smell astroturf burning I think
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, he's prolly one of maybe two. I can't figure out why he'd ignore you. Not like u do anybody anything .... Anyway, that's his loss. I can say the experts on here do a pretty good job of responding 2 questions, but they don't always catch every thing. I've had to repeat stuff that gets in the 45-50 or 95-00 range just because it's likely pple didn't see them..... especially when the blog is superfast, the way it's likely to be once things pick up again. This slowpaced conversation is cool... when we get going, sometimes it's easier to just let the blog flow around you....
1106. Mucinex
Quoting Grothar:


Clever catch on that one. I think all the models are late. I have been looking for updates and nothing new in yet. They must be scrambling.


Thanks for the info! I was starting to wonder if I'd broken the f5 key or had become trapped in somekind of internet time warp.
1107. 19N81W
tropic I couldnt read your entire post due to the page setup...re 2010
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, he's prolly one of maybe two. I can't figure out why he'd ignore you. Not like u do anybody anything .... Anyway, that's his loss. I can say the experts on here do a pretty good job of responding 2 questions, but they don't always catch every thing. I've had to repeat stuff that gets in the 45-50 or 95-00 range just because it's likely pple didn't see them..... especially when the blog is superfast, the way it's likely to be once things pick up again. This slowpaced conversation is cool... when we get going, sometimes it's easier to just let the blog flow around you....


Yeah, I certainly don't have her on ignore. When the blog gets going fast, I skip over posts on accident at times. She's a great blogger. I only ignore trolls.
1109. Torgen
Quoting presslord:



ggggrrrrrrr


Nothing could be fina' than to be in Carolina in the mooooorniiiing... (dances)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoJJcixSfjo

If we're pulling on presslord's chain, things must be quiet on the tropical storm front. :) Just checking in before bed, so I'll say "G'night, Gracie!"
Quoting Patrap:
..I smell astroturf burning I think


Dat's just da Saints in da Dome!!
ok...off to bed...work early in the am...night all
1112. nigel20

Nice spin on 92L.
1113. Grothar
92L (although I still maintain the wave after this will also be something to watch.

Quoting 19N81W:
tropic I couldnt read your entire post due to the page setup...re 2010
The wave seems promising over Africa to eventually develop.Also even though 92L is currently being affected by dry air/shear is bad becuase that means it will slide more west.And I'm afraid that when a storm takes advantage of those sst with favorable conditions in the gulf/carribean it will get ugly for some people.
get firefox
1116. Gearsts
What would take to brake the texas ridge?
Still interesting how vertical instability is well below average in the Atlantic:

Quoting Gearsts:
What would take to brake the texas ridge?


The demise of La Nina over an extended period of time.
Has anyone tried the "model verification" feature on WU's tropical page recently?  I tried it for Emily and it only shows a 12 hour segment of her life...  I have used it in the past w/ great interest to see which model(s) performed the best.  Anyone know of another site to find a similar program?  Thanks.
As each wave crosses and interacts with the dry air, does it help to dissapate it, allowing for later waves to have a better chance at developing?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Still interesting how vertical instability is well below average in the Atlantic:



I was about to mention that. It will be interesting to see what kind of affects that has on the season during this month and on...It isn't usually below average.
Quoting Gearsts:
What would take to brake the texas ridge?
A very strong/big hurricane.Or if the weather pattern were to get out of it's current state.
1123. nigel20
Quoting nigel20:

Nice spin on 92L.

Sorry about that i don't know what happened to my post.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
As each wave crosses and interacts with the dry air, does it help to dissapate it, allowing for later waves to have a better chance at developing?


Yes, as which may happen with 92L and the wave behind it. 92L may dispose of the dry air in the path of the wave behind it, allowing for a greater chance at development.
1125. Grothar
Quoting nigel20:

Nice spin on 92L.


Doesn't look like 92L
Quoting nigel20:

Sorry about that i don't know what happened to my post.


When using CIMSS Tropical Cyclones, when you post a loop like that, it will only show what you were meaning to show for a while. After that, it switches to a different storm. What you need to do is capture the image, and there is a button for the that at the top of the page when you click on 92L.

MississippiWX -- regarding #1117 -- I think that's got to be one of the big reasons the invests and storms are struggling so far. We've seen plenty of t-waves with great spin to 'em; in fact, there were times I couldn't ever remember seeing such thin little bubbles of cloud whirling around so, and still so few thunderstorms would appear.

Anybody know when the next upward phase of the MJO is due in the A-Basin?
Quoting aislinnpaps:
As each wave crosses and interacts with the dry air, does it help to dissapate it, allowing for later waves to have a better chance at developing?


The wave itself won't dissipate from the dry air. It will keep moving across the Atlantic until it encounters an area more favorable for convection or until it runs inland somewhere. However, waves can and do moisten the environment for their followers and make it more conducive for development.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, as which may happen with 92L and the wave behind it. 92L may dispose of the dry air in the path of the wave behind it, allowing for a greater chance at development.
Some of the models are agressive with development behind 92L.
00Z GFS is running...

----

lol, what happened?

1131. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:


Doesn't look like 92L

Sorry about that don't know what happened. It(92L) was showing up before.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
MississippiWX -- regarding #1117 -- I think that's got to be one of the big reasons the invests and storms are struggling so far. We've seen plenty of t-waves with great spin to 'em; in fact, there were times I couldn't ever remember seeing such thin little bubbles of cloud whirling around so, and still so few thunderstorms would appear.

Anybody know when the next upward phase of the MJO is due in the A-Basin?


All 5 of our cyclones have been plagued with shear and dry air. The shear is not so much related to the stable air as the dry air.

The upward phase of the MJO should arrive in our basin in a week or two.
1133. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


When using CIMSS Tropical Cyclones, when you post a loop like that, it will only show what you were meaning to show for a while. After that, it switches to a different storm. What you need to do is capture the image, and there is a button for the that at the top of the page when you click on 92L.


Thank you very much.
1134. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, as which may happen with 92L and the wave behind it. 92L may dispose of the dry air in the path of the wave behind it, allowing for a greater chance at development.


Been reading my blog again, huh Tropical, LOL
Well, at least the GFS initializes 92L relatively correct...1011 mb. low in the Eastern Atlantic at 12 hours:

1136. Grothar
Quoting nigel20:

Sorry about that don't know what happened. It(92L) was showing up before.


Nigel, notice how you and I post the same images at the same time? It has happened a number of times.
Thank you, MississippiWx and TA13
Quoting Grothar:


Nigel, notice how you and I post the same images at the same time? It has happened a number of times.
Running on the same time?
Quoting Grothar:


Nigel, notice how you and I post the same images at the same time? It has happened a number of times.


Maybe you are the same person? You just forget that you're posting on your other handle and end up posting the same image from two different handles. I hear it's an old person issue, that forgetfulness thing..
1141. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's alot of SAL
1142. Gearsts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That is wayyy overdone ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think that map exaggerates a wee bit.
Quoting JFV2012:
^_^


Great contribution to the blog.
quoting MississippiWX: All 5 of our cyclones have been plagued with shear and dry air. The shear is not so much related to the stable air as the dry air.


Several folks tonight have suggested that SAL is not nearly so prominent this year as it's been in the past. Do you feel the dry air issue in the Atlantic IS connected to the SAL, or what else would be causing it? I'm just very curious to know, because I keep remembering several Clim. Chg. reports suggesting that hurricanes might have a more difficult time forming in the Atlantic due to warmer/drier conditions. Thanks!
Quoting MississippiWx:


Maybe you are the same person? You just forget that you're posting on your other handle and end up posting the same image from two different handles. I hear it's an old person issue, that forgetfulness thing..


Nah, it's not a forgetfulness thing, Grothar is practicing PMS, Practicing Mental Senility so when he really get it, he has it down perfect.
1148. DFWjc
Quoting MississippiWx:


Great contribution to the blog.


probably his best post ever....
Quoting Gearsts:
That is wayyy overdone ;)


Not necessarily, match it up with the satellite image:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air is expected to plague the Atlantic at this time of the year, it always has, and always will. Why do you think most of the storms developed after 50W in 2005? Its because of the dry air that the Eastern Atlantic held. Dry air/SAL is less this year than it has been in past years, especially last year. But did all that dry air/SAL stop 2010 from being the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded? No. It is only early August, you cannot say that this season will be inactive this far into the season. This time in 2004, you know how many named storms we had? Two. In 2010, you know how many named storms we had? Three. All signs point to an uptick in activity in 10 days or so, and we should see a lot more storms, that are a lot stronger. Wait until September before you start seeing that a season will be inactive, especially since we've not even come close to the peak of the season yet.


I totally agree with 19N81W. This season forecast is a bust just like the last several years.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I certainly don't have her on ignore. When the blog gets going fast, I skip over posts on accident at times. She's a great blogger. I only ignore trolls.
Agreed... hence the fish-thwack threat.... very useful in a pinch... lol

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All I see is an elongated area of convection that looks like calipitter.
Quoting yesterway:


I totally agree with 19N81W. This season forecast is a bust just like the last several years.

Oh lordy, do I need to break out da chart?
Do ya one step further, break out the 'super chart'.
1154. nigel20
Quoting yesterway:


I totally agree with 19N81W. This season forecast is a bust just like the last several years.

2010 wasn't a bust for the Caribbean and central america .
Quoting yesterway:


I totally agree with 19N81W. This season forecast is a bust just like the last several years.

-10
Quoting nigel20:

2010 wasn't a bust for the Caribbean and central america .
For people in America the season of 2010 was a "quite one" becuase hardly any storms made landfall in the U.S except for Bonnie and a side swipe from Earl.However as you just said 2010 was not quite for the northern carribean and central america.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Oh lordy, do I need to break out da chart?
Do ya one step further, break out the 'super chart'.


I understand the statistics. I am talking about all the language about land falling US hurricanes especially with respect to Florida. I do not believe it's going to happen. Will there be lots of storms wandering around at sea? Probably yes.
Quoting nigel20:

2010 wasn't a bust for the Caribbean and central america .


People seem to conveniently forget that part. Seasonal predictions say nothing about the possibility of a United States hit, or a hit anywhere for that matter. They are written solely to give a rough estimate of the potential numbers in a given season, and they are usually quite accurate.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
quoting MississippiWX: All 5 of our cyclones have been plagued with shear and dry air. The shear is not so much related to the stable air as the dry air.


Several folks tonight have suggested that SAL is not nearly so prominent this year as it's been in the past. Do you feel the dry air issue in the Atlantic IS connected to the SAL, or what else would be causing it? I'm just very curious to know, because I keep remembering several Clim. Chg. reports suggesting that hurricanes might have a more difficult time forming in the Atlantic due to warmer/drier conditions. Thanks!


SAL has certainly been an issue across the Atlantic this season, but I'm not so sure that it has been any worse than normal. Here is the water vapor and you can see the dry air, but I've seen it much drier than this. SAL is not the biggest issue.



It has been discussed on here before that heat waves over the United States/North America can distort the instability in the Atlantic. A North American continent that is baking like we have been the past few months will focus the instability/upward motion over itself. This in turn causes less instability/upward motion over the tropical areas. It's an idea that might have some truth behind it, but the lack of instability over the Atlantic is still a mystery. The above idea is the only thing I can think of at this point.

Still, we have to realize that we've had 5 named storms already when really we should only have 1 or 2. Just because none of them have turned into hurricanes doesn't mean the Atlantic will turn in fewer hurricanes this season. The fact that named storms have been able to develop this year in the face of not so favorable conditions is what we should be worried about because when conditions do become favorable, the lid is going to come off in the Atlantic.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
MississippiWX -- regarding #1117 -- I think that's got to be one of the big reasons the invests and storms are struggling so far. We've seen plenty of t-waves with great spin to 'em; in fact, there were times I couldn't ever remember seeing such thin little bubbles of cloud whirling around so, and still so few thunderstorms would appear.

Anybody know when the next upward phase of the MJO is due in the A-Basin?
Wonder how much of the "dry air" we're seeing is related to MJO activity.... also thinking about last year's severe heatwave over N Europe / Russia and how that seemingly unbreakeable pattern just.... faded... between one day and the next. Within a week the season broke open here. Who's to say that similar conditions in TX or the Horn of Africa aren't creating a similar kind of "stability" over the ATL? I still think we act too much as if one basin is wholly disconnected from the other areas, when atmospherically, as Levi was saying in another context the other night, it's all one system. Get a better grasp of what's happening over Africa, for example, and over the EPac, and we might have a better understanding of what's impacting [or not impacting] TC formation here.

Just my 2cents on this.
1162. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


People seem to conveniently forget that part. Seasonal predictions say nothing about the possibility of a United States hit, or a hit anywhere for that matter. They are written solely to give a rough estimate of the potential numbers in a given season, and they are usually quite accurate.

Agreed
Quoting JFV2012:


LOL, evening, Mike.


So, is that your name for me? That's the second time in two days that you've called me that when my name is definitely not Mike.
Just a FYI... Milo never mixes as well in cold milk as it does in hot.... [sighs]
Quoting KoritheMan:


People seem to conveniently forget that part. Seasonal predictions say nothing about the possibility of a United States hit, or a hit anywhere for that matter. They are written solely to give a rough estimate of the potential numbers in a given season, and they are usually quite accurate.
A season can have two name storms.But if one or both of those storms make a bad impact it won't be so forgetful.
Did someway say Florida?


Quoting yesterway:


I understand the statistics. I am talking about all the language about land falling US hurricanes especially with respect to Florida. I do not believe it's going to happen. Will there be lots of storms wandering around at sea? Probably yes.

Post-2005 CSU seasonal August predictions.
CSU - 3 August 2006 15/7/3.. seasonal total: 10/5/2.
CSU - 3 August 2007 15/8/4.. seasonal total: 15/6/2.
CSU - 5 August 2008 17/9/5.. seasonal total: 16/8/5.
CSU - 4 Au
gust 2009 10/4/2.. seasonal total: 9/3/2.
CSU - 4 August 2010 18/10/5.. seasonal total: 19/12/5
CSU - 3 August 2011..16/9/5 seasonal total: ???

CSU Season predictions in August are usually pretty spot in the last 5 years on with the exception of 2006. Got the right amount of named storms right too in 2007. Pretty likely we'll get 16-17 named storms IMO.
Quoting floodzonenc:
Did someway say Florida?



Ah Florida.Hurricanes like vaction spots as much as us humans.Only they can go for free.
Quoting washingtonian115:
A season can have two name storms.But if one or both of those storms make a bad impact it won't be so forgetful.


Correct.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Post-2005 CSU seasonal August predictions.
CSU - 3 August 2006 15/7/3.. seasonal total: 10/5/2.
CSU - 3 August 2007 15/8/4.. seasonal total: 15/6/2.
CSU - 5 August 2008 17/9/5.. seasonal total: 16/8/5.
CSU - 4 August 2009 10/4/2.. seasonal total: 9/3/2.
CSU - 4 August 2010 18/10/5.. seasonal total: 19/12/15
CSU - 3 August 2011 16/9/5 seasonal total: ???

CSU Season predictions in August are usually pretty spot in the last 5 years on with the exception of 2006. Got the right amount of named storms right too in 2007. Pretty likely we'll get 16-17 named storms IMO.


LOL...Wow, we had 15 major hurricanes, but only 12 total hurricanes. Neat.
Also, it's worth noting that the current lack of activity is probably at least partially related to a predominantly downward MJO. Unlike last year, it's been hesitant to stick around in our basin for very long. Yet, five storms have been able to develop amidst these conditions.

When the upward MJO does decide to swing in for keeps, that's when we will see back to back storms.
1172. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...Wow, we had 15 major hurricanes, but only 12 total hurricanes. Neat.

lol
Quoting yesterway:


I totally agree with 19N81W. This season forecast is a bust just like the last several years.
I don't even think that's what he was getting at. He was trying to get more at WHY the season, with five storms, seems like nothing is happening. i.e. what's preventing the storms from being better organized.

BTW, 19N81W, thanks for the provocative conversation...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct.
I'm sure everyone remembers Andrew..Anywho I have to get off.My husband wants me to get off this site(he's just jealous.).Be back tomorrow.
This is not exactly "tropical" in nature, but it's not very active at the moment. Went to Sea World yesterday, and they have a new Shamu show, it was pretty cool. It was called One Ocean, and the whole theme of the show was to protect our planet, and our oceans, so that the next generation has the ability to experience all the cool things that are in our oceans. The reason I even brought it up at all is it was very tastefully done and not political in any way. Kind of a refreshing take on the whole "GW" debate. And to try and make this tropically related somehow (LOL), it appears as though there is quite a bit of SAL out there. May not stop development completely, but it may keep it to where every wave that exits off the coast doesn't develop into a monster.
1176. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, it's worth noting that the current lack of activity is probably at least partially related to a predominantly downward MJO. Unlike last year, it's been hesitant to stick around in our basin for very long. Yet, five storms have been able to develop amidst these conditions.

When the upward MJO does decide to swing in for keeps, that's when we will see back to back storms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current /getatshr.png
Shear is pretty low as well.
Re: #1161 -- thanks, Baha (and M-WX as well) -- I think that's what I've been hinting at. I'd like to see how this is all interconnected. The monster High over the US has to count for something in the global scheme of things, just as last year's Russian heatwave no doubt had its global ripple effects.

It fascinates me to think, you have land that heats up faster than water; hot air rises, should lower the atmospheric pressure; you've got the Gulf sitting next to Texas, and yet somehow the high isn't compelled to scoot out over the water, but just stays in place.

I remember the massive canopy loss after Frederic in 1979, and how much more rain the city of Mobile would get in the years afterward, in no small part because the urban heat island increased so greatly. Those of us in the south part of the County got so much less rain in the first years that followed -- because such a strong sea breeze pushed all the clouds further inland. It was a new phenomenon and a shock to those of us who were paying attention.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sure everyone remembers Andrew..Anywho I have to get off.My husband wants me to get off this site(he's just jealous.).Be back tomorrow.


lol

Good night.
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...Wow, we had 15 major hurricanes, but only 12 total hurricanes. Neat.


Sigh, that's the 5th time in the last 3 days I've gotten things mixed up. Yesterday I put cereal in the fridge and milk in the pantry. I'm not even old yet.
Sounds like an awesome show.  And don't worry about the "keeping to the tropical" theme...  Your username has "FL" in it... that;s tropical enough.

BTW, to keep it tropical, I will add that... never mind, by my own logic, I have Flood zone and NC in my username :P
Quoting charlottefl:
This is not exactly "tropical" in nature, but it's not very active at the moment. Went to Sea World yesterday, and they have a new Shamu show, it was pretty cool. It was called One Ocean, and the whole theme of the show was to protect our planet, and our oceans, so that the next generation has the ability to experience all the cool things that are in our oceans. The reason I even brought it up at all is it was very tastefully done and not political in any way. Kind of a refreshing take on the whole "GW" debate. And to try and make this tropically related somehow (LOL), it appears as though there is quite a bit of SAL out there. May not stop development completely, but it may keep it to where every wave that exits off the coast doesn't develop into a monster.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sigh, that's the 5th time in the last 3 days I've gotten things mixed up. Yesterday I put cereal in the fridge and milk in the pantry. I'm not even old yet.


Faux pas, indeed!
Why isn't 92L in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook?
1183. nigel20
Kori,
technically we have seen back to back storms...
Bret: July 17th ~ July 21st
Cindy: July 20th ~ July 22nd
Short 5 day period, though we were still tracking TW don at the time....
Don: July 27th ~ July 30th
One day period, tracking 91L then...
Emily: August 1st ~ August 7th
Then probably a 3 to 15 days period of quiet...
My thing I keep coming back to about that CSU forecast is that in order for it to verify, we're going to need to sqeeze 8-9 hurricanes in here right quick. Granted if we are going to head back towards the la nina side of ENSO by Nov, we may get a lingering season, but still.... 9 hurricanes by the end of October is, what, almost a hurricane a week?
1186. K8eCane
I have heard knowledgable folks on here say that models cant get a good handle until they have a center to track. Well then how in the hay can they track something a week away that just left the african continent?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Kori,
technically we have seen back to back storms...
Bret: July 17th ~ July 21st
Cindy: July 20th ~ July 22nd
Short 5 day period, though we were still tracking TW don at the time....
Don: July 27th ~ July 30th
One day period, tracking 91L then...
Emily: August 1st ~ August 7th
Then probably a 3 to 15 days period of quiet...


And to have five named storms already is ahead of normal...that is probably why the NHC upped the outlook this past week...
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thing I keep coming back to about that CSU forecast is that in order for it to verify, we're going to need to sqeeze 8-9 hurricanes in here right quick. Granted if we are going to head back towards the la nina side of ENSO by Nov, we may get a lingering season, but still.... 9 hurricanes by the end of October is, what, almost a hurricane a week?


2010 at this point was at 1 hurricane too, had to crank out 9 more to hit CSU's predictions right, ended up with a solid 12 hurricanes.
though i agree that we will see more simultaneous storms... Tired... :P
gnite everyone...
Check out my new blog...
Emily dies ; What's next for the Tropics?
Quoting K8eCane:
I have heard knowledgable folks on here say that models cant get a good handle until they have a center to track. Well then how in the hay can they track something a week away that just left the african continent?


I think they're referring to an accurate track. You can give a general area a wave is gonna go by the patterns that are in place and knowing what's coming up, but there is a larger percentage of error, vs when the models actually have a closed COC to track.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Why isn't 92L in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook?


Because it was designated after the issuance of the 8PM TWO.
6 seems more likely, IMO, but we could have a week or two with 2 canes in the basin at the same time.
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thing I keep coming back to about that CSU forecast is that in order for it to verify, we're going to need to sqeeze 8-9 hurricanes in here right quick. Granted if we are going to head back towards the la nina side of ENSO by Nov, we may get a lingering season, but still.... 9 hurricanes by the end of October is, what, almost a hurricane a week?

1193. K8eCane
Quoting charlottefl:


I think they're referring to an accurate track. You can give a general area a wave is gonna go by the patterns that are in place and knowing what's coming up, but there is a larger percentage of error, vs when the models actually have a closed COC to track.


Thanks Charlotte...that makes sense
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Why isn't 92L in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook?
Click on the Discussion [right side]. It's got all the Twaves and stuff before they go to TD status.
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thing I keep coming back to about that CSU forecast is that in order for it to verify, we're going to need to sqeeze 8-9 hurricanes in here right quick. Granted if we are going to head back towards the la nina side of ENSO by Nov, we may get a lingering season, but still.... 9 hurricanes by the end of October is, what, almost a hurricane a week?


Hey, it happened last year.
1196. nigel20
Quoting BahaHurican:
My thing I keep coming back to about that CSU forecast is that in order for it to verify, we're going to need to sqeeze 8-9 hurricanes in here right quick. Granted if we are going to head back towards the la nina side of ENSO by Nov, we may get a lingering season, but still.... 9 hurricanes by the end of October is, what, almost a hurricane a week?

2004 had eight hurricanes between august and September, wasn't 2004 a ENSO neutral year?
Quoting nigel20:

2004 had eight hurricanes between august and September, wasn't 2004 a ENSO neutral year?


Was actually an El Nino year.
Night all. 
1199. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because it was designated after the issuance of the 8PM TWO.


Saw 92L for the first time at 2pm, it was probably named before that.

I believe the reason for the no circle situation is that the NHC thinks there is 0% chance of 92L developing in the next 48hrs; maybe we'll see it at 2am.
Quoting K8eCane:
I have heard knowledgable folks on here say that models cant get a good handle until they have a center to track. Well then how in the hay can they track something a week away that just left the african continent?
They use the globals, which are tracking a wide variety of features all around the globe [GFS is one example]. Plus they are adept in using their more regional models to draw conclusions about atmospheric conditions and how they will impact an AOI.
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?
1202. K8eCane
Heads up for all...I have Travelers Homeowners and they had doubled the value of my home (unrealistically) which allowed them a huge deductible because trhey base it on what They have your home valued at. I am switching next week to NC Homeowners and my deductible will go from 9000 to 2000 on windstorm. Dont be duped!
1203. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:


Was actually an El Nino year.

OK, thanks
Quoting yesterway:
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?


In FL in August, ain't happening lol..
Quoting yesterway:
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?


Yup.
Quoting JLPR2:


Saw 92L for the first time at 2pm, it was probably named before that.

I believe the reason for the no circle situation is that the NHC thinks there is 0% chance of 92L developing in the next 48hrs; maybe we'll see it at 2am.


Ah, who knows. I slept super late today, because I was dead tired.

Still rather odd they aren't mentioning an invest, though.
92L is already becoming a naked swirl, dry air slot to the northwest of it is making it tough for 92L right now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

A lot of upper-level wind vectors are out of the east ahead of 92L, aligned with the low-level trade winds out of the east....so wind shear isn't as much of an issue as the dry air.

If this thing was going to be thrown in the TWO at 2 AM, they'll probably give it a 0% or 10% chance for the next 48 hours...
1209. K8eCane
Quoting BahaHurican:
They use the globals, which are tracking a wide variety of features all around the globe [GFS is one example]. Plus they are adept in using their more regional models to draw conclusions about atmospheric conditions and how they will impact an AOI.


Thanks Baha..I can make a little more sense of it that way
Quoting 19N81W:
tropic I couldnt read your entire post due to the page setup...re 2010
You still there. I enjoyed your commennts a couple of weeks ago about the NHC.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey, it happened last year.
LOL... now that you mention it, it did.... lol

Quoting yesterway:
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?
Thanks 4 asking this... reminds me to get that battery operated fan I saw on Amazon or somewhere earlier this weekend...
1212. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah, who knows. I slept super late today, because I was dead tired.

Still rather odd they aren't mentioning an invest, though.


Ehh, no harm done, doesn't seem like 92L will develop soon so them ignoring it for a bit wont hurt anyone. :)

Stayed in bed till 2pm myself.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah, who knows. I slept super late today, because I was dead tired.

Still rather odd they aren't mentioning an invest, though.


Well this wouldn't be the first time this year. That bombshell Invest 90L in March I believe (near the Azores) was never considered by the NHC outlooks...
Anyway, I think I may be able to appreciate my bed tonight, so I'm off. See u guys later....

It was real good tonight, the blog....
Quoting JLPR2:


Ehh, no harm done, doesn't seem like 92L will develop soon so them ignoring it for a bit wont hurt anyone. :)

Stayed in bed till 2pm myself.


Did you set your alarm for the 2pm NHC TWO? LOL....

(I admit this is a nerdy joke)
1217. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did you set your alarm for the 2pm NHC TWO? LOL....

(I admit this is a nerdy joke)


XD
Nah, I just like to wake up at 2pm when I sleep till late.
Just enough time of the day left so I don't feel like I skipped it.
1218. Mucinex
Quoting yesterway:
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?

Yeah, but not well. My parents and their parents etc, etc, grew up in Florida without A/C. So, until recently they didn't turn it on unless it was a special occasion.
I dreamed every night of Alaska.
Quoting charlottefl:


In FL in August, ain't happening lol..


I am a Florida native born and raised in Miami. I do not remember not being able to sleep growing up. I have been through many hurricanes including major ones. As a young person it was kind of neat except for seeing my father sitting at the kitchen table smoking cigarettes as he listened to the concrete roof tiles hitting the ground. In fact air conditioning was not yet available to the consumer (I am 59). I cannot sleep when I am sweating. A few years back a tropical storm moved across northeast Florida and we lost power. I was so miserable that I went to a motel so I could take a bath and sleep. I wish I had never conditioned myself to need ac. In this current economy the days ahead are very uncertain. I and many of my friends are now taking steps to be able to live independent of electricity in terms of having potable water and food (garden). However, retraining my mind and body to be able to sleep in high humiture is going to be the greatest challenge. I am not looking forward to it.
00z GFS has really backed off any development of the upcoming African waves/92L. Nothing shown through 156 hours...
Quoting JLPR2:


XD
Nah, I just like to wake up at 2pm when I sleep till late.
Just enough time of the day left so I don't feel like I skipped it.


Well, I better get to bed myself...got to get up by 6 AM for work....

Fun bedtime fact....all five Atlantic storms this year were tropical storms...all five E-Pac storms this year were hurricanes:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/index.shtml
Quoting yesterway:


I am a Florida native born and raised in Miami. I do not remember not being able to sleep growing up. I have been through many hurricanes including major ones. As a young person it was kind of neat except for seeing my father sitting at the kitchen table smoking cigarettes as he listened to the concrete roof tiles hitting the ground. In fact air conditioning was not yet available to the consumer (I am 59). I cannot sleep when I am sweating. A few years back a tropical storm moved across northeast Florida and we lost power. I was so miserable that I went to a motel so I could take a bath and sleep. I wish I had never conditioned myself to need ac. In this current economy the days ahead are very uncertain. I and many of my friends are now taking steps to be able to live independent of electricity in terms of having potable water and food (garden). However, retraining my mind and body to be able to sleep in high humiture is going to be the greatest challenge. I am not looking forward to it.


I did for several nights after Charley, then went to say with family, cause it was pretty miserable. There are times during the year when it's not so bad, August is not one of them.
1224. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just did a blog on 92L. Take a look if you want.

I'm out. Tired.

Nice blog.
1225. jonelu
looks like RemEm went poof....
Hey Everyone just checking in to see whats going on in the world of Weather....
Hows everybody tonight? :o)

Taco :o)
1228. rv1pop
Quoting yesterway:
Anybody able to sleep without air conditioning?

Yes, although it is way too warm, we are solar powered, so after dark very little battery power left and no AC.
What do you mean you lost power in the storm? The name says RV and we have two of them! Full time boondocking RVers. But the ice machine runs all night long.
1229. rv1pop
hello, taco, You are a few minutes too late. Most everyone is signing off. Looks like quiet for 36 to 48 hours.
1231. K8eCane
night evrybody...interesting reading tonight
1232. rv1pop
Frank: BE Blessed

G'night all Batteries are going below 60% so getting off before inverter goes off. Daylight coming.

POP
Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS has really backed off any development of the upcoming African waves/92L. Nothing shown through 156 hours...
I see a little local mischief in the northern gulf starting at 168hrs.
Quoting rv1pop:
hello, taco, You are a few minutes too late. Most everyone is signing off. Looks like quiet for 36 to 48 hours.
ok Thanks I'm signing off too just playing with my new Laptop and thought I would run a few radars to see how it all workes....

Have a Great Nite and I will check in tomorrow....

Taco :o)
1235. SLU
1220. MississippiWx 4:34 AM GMT on August 08, 2011 +0
00z GFS has really backed off any development of the upcoming African waves/92L.


Could be yet another embarrassment for the computer programmers .....
Am I alone now?
LOL, not for long. I am here now!
1238. JLPR2
Quoting Abacosurf:
I see a little local mischief in the northern gulf starting at 168hrs.


Yes, now instead of showing CV systems, the GFS is showing a storm for the US Gulf Coast and another one in the Western Caribbean hitting Central America.
Quoting Hurricanes12:
LOL, not for long. I am here now!


where from? Gainesville area here...
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, now instead of showing CV systems, the GFS is showing a storm for the US Gulf Coast and another one in the Western Caribbean hitting Central America.


Nice to meet you!
Quoting Abacosurf:
I see a little local mischief in the northern gulf starting at 168hrs.
The accuracy of the GFS at those long ranges is close to zero. A conversation piece, but not much more.
Quoting FrankZapper:
The accuracy of the GFS at those long ranges is close to zero. A conversation piece, but not much more.


Pressures lowering through the end of the week.

In general, the only thing I take from any model is that conditions are either more or less likely than normal.

In this case starting in about 60-72 hours we should see a trough in the northern gulf.

What happens after that remains to be seen.


1243. nigel20

Night everyone
Quoting FrankZapper:
The accuracy of the GFS at those long ranges is close to zero. A conversation piece, but not much more.


While I agree that events are not going to unfold in that exact manner, it is cause for concern as the model is showing a classic trough split setup where a decaying cold front gets trapped underneath a developing ridge.

We will have to watch this area, but you are correct that events will not transpire in that way.
1245. JFV2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


While I agree that events are not going to unfold in that exact manner, it is cause for concern as the model is showing a classic trough split setup where a decaying cold front gets trapped underneath a developing ridge.

We will have to watch this area, but you are correct that events will not transpire in that way.


Couldn't sleep I see, eh?
I may be the only one still here...
1247. LargoFl
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, now instead of showing CV systems, the GFS is showing a storm for the US Gulf Coast and another one in the Western Caribbean hitting Central America.
interesting, something to watch this time of year, especially the gulf coast
hi everyone.
morning
The tropics are relatively quiet this morning, except for 92L, in the far eastern atlantic. An area of interest but looks very insignificant, is the Twave near 49W. there is strong 850mb vort, low shear, convergence and divergence. The wave is also under an anticyclone. the only impediment is the wave is surrounded by dry air which is limiting convection. it should be very interesting to see what happens when this wave moves closer to the islands where it is more moist and eventually into the central caribbean sea.
good morning dont know why they discontinued emily last night before dark its circulation looked decent they might re'look it
Quoting islander101010:
good morning dont know why they discontinued emily last night before dark its circulation looked decent they might re'look it


If they even consider reclassifying Emily I'm gonna start repeatedly hitting my head of a wall. Lol, I'm so sick of her, most frustrating storm ever.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


If they even consider reclassifying Emily I'm gonna start repeatedly hitting my head of a wall. Lol, I'm so sick of her, most frustrating storm ever.
now we got the august heat here in e cen fl. been mild all summer until emily came close yesterday
Quoting islander101010:
now we got the august heat here in e cen fl. been mild all summer until emily came close yesterday


Glad she gave you a little relief. Get much rainfall?
1254. rod2635
FROM OUR FRIENDS AT THE NHC

TROPICAL WAVES

...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE

...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE

...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE

0 FOR THREE. A DAY OF LAWN WORK.
The islands must keep an eye on this Twave 600 to the east all the wave needs now is to fire up some convection and could be a candidate for 93L
Good morning to all.

The tropics in the Atlantic are quiet today, but the question is when will things really turn active. In reallity this season has had 4 of the 5 named storms having a hard time trying to get stronger.Only Arlene was almost a hurricane and if not were land on the track,it would be one. I have a feeling that after mid august,things will start to pop as the wet phase of MJO arrives as someone posted the graphic last night.
1257. WxLogic
Morning....
1258. rod2635
still learning the fine points of this blog.

Can someone tell me what the little +, -, !, show/hide, and the numbers like +0 mean and is this some sort of setting one has to input to be on the blog? My posts don't seem to come with them...don't know the significance of this.
1259. WxLogic
Quoting rod2635:
still learning the fine points of this blog.

Can someone tell me what the little +, -, !, show/hide, and the numbers like +0 mean and is this some sort of setting one has to input to be on the blog? My posts don't seem to come with them...don't know the significance of this.


To make it easy... take your mouse and place it on top of each of those "symbols" (e.g. +, !, Hide, etc...) for 1 to 2 seconds and you'll see a description of each.

In regards the numbers "+0" is basically the "like points" for a given posts. Those are awarded by hitting the "+" to post you like.

Since it will not be fair to rate yourself "up" then you can't "like", "dislike", etc... yourself so you won't see those on your posts.
1260. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENN

................................................. ...

Day 69...114 to go and it's over.
No hurricanes. Unusual. Not impressed with the forecast models and the NHC. They got Emily wrong by far. Other mistakes were made too.
1262. IKE

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Glad she gave you a little relief. Get much rainfall?
here on the east side we've had plenty of rain emily gave us the sticky heat
naked swirl at 14n tailing behind that weak wave got potential
good morning everyone
1266. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N24W TO 18N22W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 11N23W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N50W TO 18N45W MOVING W-NW AT
10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
13N48W AND AN AREA OF HIGHER TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB...OR LOW TO
MID-LEVEL...TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS IN THE
VICINITY OF 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N71W TO 19N68W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A 1017 MB WESTERN ATLC HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE WAVE NEAR
24N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

Nice Kori - "None of the models are very enthralled about development, likely out of reverence of this dry air."

Storms like Emily are "fickle", keeping options open for hope of a big windfall.. and other turns of a phrase, but the models have human characteristics? Very good!
1268. hcubed
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Post-2005 CSU seasonal August predictions.
CSU - 3 August 2006 15/7/3.. seasonal total: 10/5/2.
CSU - 3 August 2007 15/8/4.. seasonal total: 15/6/2.
CSU - 5 August 2008 17/9/5.. seasonal total: 16/8/5.
CSU - 4 Au
gust 2009 10/4/2.. seasonal total: 9/3/2.
CSU - 4 August 2010 18/10/5.. seasonal total: 19/12/5
CSU - 3 August 2011..16/9/5 seasonal total: ???

CSU Season predictions in August are usually pretty spot in the last 5 years on with the exception of 2006. Got the right amount of named storms right too in 2007. Pretty likely we'll get 16-17 named storms IMO.


But in order to MATCH their 2011 numbers, the season from this point forward will have to be 11/9/5.

Nine of the next eleven named storms would have to be hurricanes.

Five of the next eleven named storms would have to be majors.

The chart does show we're entering the peak of the season, but THAT active? Has any analog season, starting in August, put up those kinds of numbers?
1269. hydrus
Quoting SLU:
1220. MississippiWx 4:34 AM GMT on August 08, 2011 +0
00z GFS has really backed off any development of the upcoming African waves/92L.


Could be yet another embarrassment for the computer programmers .....
Here they come...notice the moisture field there in...This should end the dry air problems they have been having...
I response to post 1268 I would say the answer to your question is yes. Sorry not anywhere I can research it real quick but I think so. Some of the other bloggers on here have all those stats handy, and someone will post.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
No hurricanes. Unusual. Not impressed with the forecast models and the NHC. They got Emily wrong by far. Other mistakes were made too.
You should write NHC and and Rick Scott a letter.....a really long one.

Give mother nature a shout too....

That should fix it.
1272. hydrus
I dont know if I have ever seen the gulf this warm..
1273. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
Here they come...notice the moisture field there in...This should end the dry air problems they have been having...


But it's really sad that this year the recently upgraded GFS has been very poor and inconsistent and performing far worse than its european counterparts ....

It did perform very well during last years Cape Verde outbreak though ....
Quoting hydrus:
I dont know if I have ever seen the gulf this warm..

At 4 PM yesterday the water in Naples was 92.

It's pee warm.
1275. hydrus
The Bermuda high will return with great intensity.. The GFS tropical loop Linkshows it doing it thing..
1276. hydrus
Quoting SLU:


But it's really sad that this year the recently upgraded GFS has been very poor and inconsistent and performing far worse than its european counterparts ....

It did perform very well during last years Cape Verde outbreak though ....
Lol...Give it a couple more chances. Computers trying to latch on to Emily is almost like trying to forecast a quivering mass of olives be sheared and slammed int mountains...You know how poor the models do with weak systems anyway..:)
1277. hydrus
Quoting Abacosurf:

At 4 PM yesterday the water in Naples was 92.

It's pee warm.
Maybe the beach goers had too much brew....Warmest I have seen it, and I have been in S.W.Floridy for quite a while...
What does the zeros with the x inside mean?

Neapolitan:

You having fun over there over in Ricky's. Remember stick to the science, and the truth will always find it's way.
1280. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

...TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N24W TO 18N22W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 11N23W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC...

850mb streamlines

click to open in new window
Wow 92 at naples beach water. Will be on Sanibel middle of next week. Might just stay at the 90 degree pool LOL.
yellows



oranges

Good Morning Friends. Looks like a quiet day on the blog. For those who are itching for another Atlantic storm have patience and just keep looking West. Sheer is extremely low out there at the moment, but, the SAL levels are pretty high at the moment as well (see link). It will all balance out in a few weeks. Enjoy the current lull.

Link
The CPHC is really bad at updating their archives to include the previous TCRs, the one for Omeka isn't out yet. Last year I had to send them an email before they put it up.

I see 92L on WU but not on NHC. How strange.
Quoting blsealevel:
What does the zeros with the x inside mean?



24 hour high pressure movement
1287. hydrus
208 nm west of Naples, Florida..
Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 0.7 ft
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 84.9 F
Dew Point: 76.5 F
Water Temperature: 87.1 F
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


24 hour high pressure movement


Thank's
I got caught up on some other page in the wrong
direaction.
1289. Buhdog
We had our most direct hit from EMILY in SWFL this morning...on shore flow from the tail of her gave us some pretty hefty Tstorms at 6am. shook the whole house up...Link
1291. hydrus
The GFS 850 vort map shows a storm taking a path similar to Katrina...Link
1292. hydrus
Trades blowin in the
Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 08 Aug 2011 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (83°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in
Air Temperature: 83.5 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F Central Caribbean..
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
No hurricanes. Unusual. Not impressed with the forecast models and the NHC. They got Emily wrong by far. Other mistakes were made too.

Gee and I thought they did pretty well with Emily.
so GFS likes a trough split that becomes a strong TS/Hurricane... interesting, it headed for TX...
Anyone realize right now, that the Tropical wave east of the leewards is leaving it's vortmax behind, east trade winds, really taking a toll on it right now...
Back at 1230...
1297. hydrus
Quoting Buhdog:
We had our most direct hit from EMILY in SWFL this morning...on shore flow from the tail of her gave us some pretty hefty Tstorms at 6am. shook the whole house up...Link
I saw that..
1299. SLU
Looks like 92L is slowly mixing out the dry air.
Thanks Levi. You are either up very early or have not been to bed yet... Get some sleep.
1302. divdog
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
No hurricanes. Unusual. Not impressed with the forecast models and the NHC. They got Emily wrong by far. Other mistakes were made too.
NHC did fine with emily. when u say they did poorly, what exactly did they do wrong. You NHC haters are priceless. I have a good laugh at your expense every time I see one of these posts.
1303. FLdewey
Sleepy morning in the tropics I see... the wait continues.

(Dramatic chipmunk music)
Quoting hydrus:
I saw that..
Quoting hydrus:
I saw that..
look at the gap of precip out in the gom offsrasota area,rains to the north and rains to the south,i swear my local area has a weather force field aroundbitvwith mostvwx north towrds tpa bay or south towards charlotte harbor,the idains MuST have blessed this land sarsota cunty has never had a cat 3,4 or 5 landfall in recorded history ,should be called the sunshine county,some ofvthe best wx in the nation exceptbfor the heat/humidity
id bet a few water spouts off fl's central/north coasts as the ftopical showers come in off the gom,saw one about a month and a half ago but it didnttoutch the water
1307. kwgirl
Quoting FLdewey:
Sleepy morning in the tropics I see... the wait continues.

(Dramatic chipmunk music)
Good morning everyone. We had some nice rain in Key West Saturday evening and then the wind came out of the SW on Sunday, making a nice day at East Martello.( Nice meaning not as hot and humid as the previous day, so it is relative.) That SW breeze kicked off some showers into Florida Bay, but kept them off shore for Key West. I have one question. What is Dramatic chipmunk music? I didn't think they could get down to those lower registers. LOL
For all practical purposes, NHC's "track" forecast for Emily was right on the money. The only glitch was nailing down intensity and the fact of the matter was that she never got above a very weak TS at any given point.......NHC did fine with Emily and some wishcasters are probably more upset that Emily did not blow up into to Cat 3 so they could come back back and accuse NHC of blowing their forecast................ :)
1309. hydrus
Had to expand this one..First hurricane of the year?
Quoting hydrus:
Had to expand this one..First hurricane of the year?

Can you give me a link to that kml file for GE plz.
1314. P451
Good morning...it would appear there is not much convection wise to work with - but that is one heck of a rotation out there this morning!



Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
No hurricanes. Unusual. Not impressed with the forecast models and the NHC. They got Emily wrong by far. Other mistakes were made too.


Why are you not impressed for the forecast models and the NHC ????

Remember, models are only good for 3 days out.... The further out in time, the less reliable they are....

Please specify what mistakes they made and why they got Emily "SO WRONG"

1316. P451
Quoting divdog:
NHC did fine with emily. when u say they did poorly, what exactly did they do wrong. You NHC haters are priceless. I have a good laugh at your expense every time I see one of these posts.


They followed the model consensus almost always trying to pull Emily immediately WNW and NW. They also had her as a Hurricane a few times.

They were off.

Was it drastic? No. But the fact remains their forecasting was off.


nhc did great with emily's track,they didnt predict her two stalls,but if you look at their first forecast package days out,they had it off the se coast of fl,and thats what indeed did verify
1318. IKE

Quoting P451:


They followed the model consensus almost always trying to pull Emily immediately WNW and NW. They also had her as a Hurricane a few times.

They were off.

Was it drastic? No. But the fact remains their forecasting was off.


That's why it's a forecast.

Tropics are quiet.........
1319. FLdewey
kwgirl dramatic chipmunk is, well the dramatic chipmunk. I'd post a link, but I don't want to get in trouble with "da man"

Just Google "dramatic chipmunk"
1320. beell
Kinda looks WNW to me while in the Caribbean.

1321. P451
Feature still motoring along in it's own little universe there. Pretty impressive considering the sea of bone dry upper level air it's in.



Might as well enjoy this kind of imagery while it lasts. Moisture is on the way.
1322. FLdewey
Quoting stillwaiting:
id bet a few water spouts off fl's central/north coasts as the ftopical showers come in off the gom,saw one about a month and a half ago but it didnttoutch the water


I wish.

Winds are pretty strong out of the SW just above the surface today which doesn't sit well with the spouts. Hopefully midweek the lower level winds will lie down before all of this moisture gets sucked away.

Spouts is good fun!
1323. P451
Quoting IKE:

That's why it's a forecast.

Tropics are quiet.........


I know this. Everyone knows this. Everyone is free to question a forecast and to analyze it later.

I don't see the problem.

The NHC defenders are as bad as the haters.
Quoting stillwaiting:
nhc did great with emily's track,they didnt predict her two stalls,but if you look at their first forecast package days out,they had it off the se coast of fl,and thats what indeed did verify



Agreed they did a great job overall. Realize that forecasts are still just that. There are so many factors going on. Consider the forecasts from 15 years ago and to now, they have come a long way. They are not up to speed yet on intensity forecasts.....and they know this, and they don't keep that a secret, they say it outright.
1325. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can you give me a link to that kml file for GE plz.
Got it from Orca,s blog post# 1308...
1326. beell
First 5-day guess. Monday August 1st.

It's the National Hurricane Center...not the National Swirly Thing Center.




The deforested mountains of Hispanola may have knocked her out of the cone for a while but given the steering conditions and strength (or lack there of )of the storm....I give them a solid B.

( they can earn extracredit if they clean off my desk)
damm thats a strong westerly flow accross the eastern gom and florida,gonna be trouble if a tc approaches from the south,howeve indications are for a more typical summer time pattern with more ridging and a se flow,should lead to above ave rainfall imo end month
1329. P451
Quoting beell:
Kinda looks WNW to me.



The had it going north of the Islands as 91L. They had it going over PR at one point. They had it going over DR at one point.

The almost always had it pulling further north earlier than it ended up going. The turn was predicted in nearly every new forecast package and the turn didn't come.

They had it as a Hurricane twice.


They weren't drastically off but they were off enough for the forecast to be analyzed as incorrect in the end.

I don't see what either side of the argument is trying to do here be it the "haters" or "defenders" of the NHC.

They made forecasts and Emily stayed weaker and on the southern end of them. The conclusion is their forecasts ended up incorrect.

1330. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
Whats with the Navy site and 92L??? has a ATCF over Bahamas, WTH!!!!


They've been a mess mixing Emily's remains with 92L on the same page.

The ATCF is an old one looking for Emily's regeneration in the Bahamas.

They also early on had satellite imagery for Emily on 92Ls page.

Not sure what gives.
1331. hydrus
Good spin...
Here is the link to an April 2011 Conference Presentation by NHC's Pasch on continued improvement needed on intensity issues; a good read.

Hurricane Intensity Forecast Improvement:
Is it Possible?
Richard J. Pasch
Senior Hurricane Specialist
National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Conference
Atlanta, GA
21 April 2011

In order to substantially improve intensity
forecasts we need:
• Improved prediction of the large‐scale atmospheric environment
• Better prediction of the evolution of the ocean, both the surface and the subsurface
• High resolution, e.g. a model grid with a spacing small enough to resolve cloud‐scale processes
• Much better prediction of the tropical cyclone’s inner core structure, including the eyewall and any asymmetries in the distribution of showers and thunderstorms about the center
• A better understanding and improved simulation of physical processes that are associated with intensity change, including exchanges of heat and moisture at the air‐sea interface, turbulent exchanges of heat, moisture and momentum, and how clouds cause
changes in temperature, moisture and momentum in the tropical cyclone’s circulation


Link
1333. hydrus
Quoting stillwaiting:
damm thats a strong westerly flow accross the eastern gom and florida,gonna be trouble if a tc approaches from the south,howeve indications are for a more typical summer time pattern with more ridging and a se flow,should lead to above ave rainfall imo end month
Definately..The old Bermuda High will be back to its old self..:)
1334. beell
Quoting P451:


The had it going north of the Islands as 91L. They had it going over PR at one point. They had it going over DR at one point.

The almost always had it pulling further north earlier than it ended up going. The turn was predicted in nearly every new forecast package and the turn didn't come.

They had it as a Hurricane twice.


They weren't drastically off but they were off enough for the forecast to be analyzed as incorrect in the end.

I don't see what either side of the argument is trying to do here be it the "haters" or "defenders" of the NHC.

They made forecasts and Emily stayed weaker and on the southern end of them. The conclusion is their forecasts ended up incorrect.



Never got outside the original cone. If you want to frame the discussion in terms of attackers/defenders then that is certainly your option. If you want to stick to an objective review of track. Well...what can I say?
Quoting beell:


Never got outside the original cone. If you want to frame the discussion in terms of attackers/defenders then that is certainly your option. If you want to stick to an objective review of track. Well...what can I say?


I choose to have inane arguments until the next swirly thing arrives......your avitar is silly!

(sticks out tongue at Beell)
People tend to focus on the line they give in the middle of the cone and take it as gospel, which is wrong to do. The cone is the actual forecast. If they get it within the cone, then it should be considered a good forecast. The cone has gotten smaller over the years. I even think they made it smaller this year.
Does 92L still exist out there or did it dissipate? The models are somewhat old.
1340. P451
Quoting beell:
First 5-day guess. Monday August 1st.



So, if it's in the cone, do you feel they did a perfect job?

Maybe that's where this debate loses itself.

To me being in the cone isn't being correct. The storm following the path down the line is being correct.

In the end the storm ended up in the giant cone but it always remained south of and weaker than what they forecasted.

End result? Forecast was incorrect.

How incorrect? Minimal I suppose but if the storm were a strong one you can't say it was minimal if it ended up missing the NE islands and PR which it was forecasted to turn up and over at one time and went on to devastate western Haiti and eastern Cuba.

So, well, they were off.

1340. P451

Your criteria seems to be a perfect forecast, I've never seen one.
1342. P451
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
It's the National Hurricane Center...not the National Swirly Thing Center.




The deforested mountains of Hispanola may have knocked her out of the cone for a while but given the steering conditions and strength (or lack there of )of the storm....I give them a solid B.

( they can earn extracredit if they clean off my desk)


This cone would make anyone from Jason to JFV correct in their forecasting.

:)

Anywhere from out to sea to taking out Miami.

I wouldn't give those two credit just because the storm ended up in their cones.

But well...that's just my opinion.



1343. beell
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I choose to have inane arguments until the next swirly thing arrives......your avitar is silly!

(sticks out tongue at Beell)


Don't be swayed by the silly appearance. It is not silly. It is stupid.
Good morning all.
1345. hydrus
Still looks dusty out there ....For now..
1346. beell
Quoting P451:


So, if it's in the cone, do you feel they did a perfect job?

Maybe that's where this debate loses itself.

To me being in the cone isn't being correct. The storm following the path down the line is being correct.

In the end the storm ended up in the giant cone but it always remained south of and weaker than what they forecasted.

End result? Forecast was incorrect.

How incorrect? Minimal I suppose but if the storm were a strong one you can't say it was minimal if it ended up missing the NE islands and PR which it was forecasted to turn up and over at one time and went on to devastate western Haiti and eastern Cuba.

So, well, they were off.



I think you're confusing the flip-flop model output with the track forecast.
Good advice from CrownWeather this morning:

I want to very strongly emphasize to all of our Crown Weather friends that you may want to take some time this week, while its quiet, and take another look at your hurricane preparedness kits. Make sure you have everything that you may need in the event of a hurricane landfall. My analysis this morning indicates that things may flip on in a big way, almost overnight, starting around the early to middle part of next week (August 15-18) and then continuing right through all of September. The Roundy Tropical Cyclone Probability Chart points to a pretty rapid ramp up in activity starting on August 15 and continuing from there. In addition, the wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to arrive during the mid and late August with a MJO upward motion pulse forecast to arrive between August 14 and August 18.

Take 2008 for instance, which is an analog year to this one: On August 8, 2008, Tropical Storm Edouard had just tracked into Texas and at that point, it was starting to look very likely that activity would ramp up very quickly starting around August 15 or so. What happened? We went from Fickle Fay during mid and late August to Gustav which impacted the Louisiana coast on September 1 to Ike which caused mass devestation in Galveston on the night of September 12. So, this example easily illustrates what can happen in just one month during the Hurricane Season.

So, I do think that the activity across the Atlantic Basin will flip on overnight, where we go to sleep one night and wake up the next morning with two, three or even four areas of interest. I strongly urge you to go over your hurricane preparedness kits this week. A good website to reference is http://www.onestorm.org . Isn%u2019t it better to prepare and not need it than to be caught with your britches down??

----

We should indeed see a switch flip on in the Atlantic by mid-late August, with the wet phase of the MJO coming, and the Cape Verde season kicks up.

1349. divdog
Quoting P451:


This cone would make anyone from Jason to JFV correct in their forecasting.

:)

Anywhere from out to sea to taking out Miami.

I wouldn't give those two credit just because the storm ended up in their cones.

But well...that's just my opinion.



you really have a problem with the NHC. nobody has and nobody ever will make a PERFECT forecast as you call it. Lets move on.
If it had convection, it would probably be Invest 93L. As you can see from this image, it has a closed, low level circulation.

Quoting divdog:
you really have a problem with the NHC. nobody has and nobody ever will make a PERFECT forecast as you call it. Lets move on.
The solar flares may have had something to do with this, possibly.
GFS doesn't really show 92L developing
Good morning, all. Today is my last day of summer vacation. :( It's back to teaching tomorrow. I hate when something is happening weatherwise and I can't check in here to keep up to date as to what is happening. I always wonder if a cane will make a sudden unexpected turn like Rita did.

It looks like we'll have a quiet week this week and then all heck will break loose next week.
1354. hydrus
Looks innocuous, but could spin up quick in a few days..
Good morning all. I'm a long time lurker and would only post during "slow" times, so not to interfere. I appreciate your information and good-natured sense of community. Thanks!
Quoting beell:


Never got outside the original cone. If you want to frame the discussion in terms of attackers/defenders then that is certainly your option. If you want to stick to an objective review of track. Well...what can I say?


I will say that you also need to look at all of the forecasts. Overall on average they were outside the cone for the 12, 24 and 36 hour forecasts. The 48 hour was just inside the cone, however the 72, 96 and 120 hours were well within the cone.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If it had convection, it would probably be Invest 93L. As you can see from this image, it has a closed, low level circulation.



Where is that at?
2012 is going to be fascinating. not only nature but watching how humans are dealing with the unknown.
1359. P451
Quoting divdog:
you really have a problem with the NHC. nobody has and nobody ever will make a PERFECT forecast as you call it. Lets move on.


I don't "really have a problem with the NHC" that is inaccurate.

Quoting islander101010:
2012 is going to be fascinating. not only nature but watching how humans are dealing with the unknown.


and, probably another busy season... la nina redevelops
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good advice from CrownWeather this morning:

I want to very strongly emphasize to all of our Crown Weather friends that you may want to take some time this week, while its quiet, and take another look at your hurricane preparedness kits. Make sure you have everything that you may need in the event of a hurricane landfall. My analysis this morning indicates that things may flip on in a big way, almost overnight, starting around the early to middle part of next week (August 15-18) and then continuing right through all of September. The Roundy Tropical Cyclone Probability Chart points to a pretty rapid ramp up in activity starting on August 15 and continuing from there. In addition, the wet phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is forecast to arrive during the mid and late August with a MJO upward motion pulse forecast to arrive between August 14 and August 18.

Take 2008 for instance, which is an analog year to this one: On August 8, 2008, Tropical Storm Edouard had just tracked into Texas and at that point, it was starting to look very likely that activity would ramp up very quickly starting around August 15 or so. What happened? We went from Fickle Fay during mid and late August to Gustav which impacted the Louisiana coast on September 1 to Ike which caused mass devestation in Galveston on the night of September 12. So, this example easily illustrates what can happen in just one month during the Hurricane Season.

So, I do think that the activity across the Atlantic Basin will flip on overnight, where we go to sleep one night and wake up the next morning with two, three or even four areas of interest. I strongly urge you to go over your hurricane preparedness kits this week. A good website to reference is http://www.onestorm.org . Isn%u2019t it better to prepare and not need it than to be caught with your britches down??

----

We should indeed see a switch flip on in the Atlantic by mid-late August, with the wet phase of the MJO coming, and the Cape Verde season kicks up.



Promise?
1362. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I will say that you also need to look at all of the forecasts. Overall on average they were outside the cone for the 12, 24 and 36 hour forecasts. The 48 hour was just inside the cone, however the 72, 96 and 120 hours were well within the cone.

Link


Is that not model error? As opposed to the skinny black line and surrounding cone that represents the official forecast?
1363. beell
Ok, wait, nrt. I see the OFCL errors listed.
look good to me.
so, I take it Emily won't be hitting New Orleans?
1367. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1340. P451

Your criteria seems to be a perfect forecast, I've never seen one.


When people announce that the NHC did a perfect or great job with the storm - it's not my criteria - it's theirs, and that's what I'm pointing to here.

It's not difficult to place a storm in the large cone of error. It's even easier when you get a do-over with the cone every six hours.

To me being in the cone doesn't make the forecast correct. It doesn't mean they did a great job with the storm.

Following the forecast points would make the forecast correct and would be a great job.

It didn't therefore the forecast was not great. They kept forecasting early northern turns. They did not come.

While the NHC was busy forecasting sharp northern turns in their cone every average joe on this blog was watching the satellite imagery head west and watching the storm head south of the forecast points.

The cone had the storm being anywhere from a real threat to Florida to a non-issue. Just because the storm ended up within those broad possibilities does not mean it was a great forecasting job.

I'm not sure how every single individual would analyze such a situation but the conclusion I have come to is the forecast was incorrect.
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
so, I take it Emily won't be hitting New Orleans?

Emily went bye-bye yesterday. It was hundreds of miles away from New Orleans and wouldn't have survived the cross from Cuba to the Gulf.
invest 92L AT yellow
i hate this reverse summer time pattern,little rain and hot nights:(
Quoting Waltanater:
The solar flares may have had something to do with this, possibly.


I wanted to say the same thing last week but was afraid of fire and pitchforks. The storm did seem to have strange timing of dissipating with the solar flares.
1367. P451

When considering the methodology of how the cone is constructed, I reach a different conclusion. In some sense the cone represents the "state of the art" in track forecasting. They calculate the average error at each forecast hour for the past 5 years, and then set the cone radius to 2/3 of that amount. Logically then they will be outside of the cone 1/3 of the time.
Quoting stillwaiting:
i hate this reverse summer time pattern,little rain and hot nights:(


numerous showers and thunderstorms, not little rain, the East side of the state is still in a drought, and the west Side isn't even close to a drought anymore, so nature is balancing things out. Besides, there will be periods of heavy rain moving in off the water from time to time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If it had convection, it would probably be Invest 93L. As you can see from this image, it has a closed, low level circulation.



It's sitting under a bunch of dry air. No real chance to build convection right now.
1376. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I will say that you also need to look at all of the forecasts. Overall on average they were outside the cone for the 12, 24 and 36 hour forecasts. The 48 hour was just inside the cone, however the 72, 96 and 120 hours were well within the cone.

Link




Using the default filter "Error Type (Entire storm) and "Interval 12 hrs"
I don't see those errors. 4.4, 7.1, and 9.2nm at 12, 24, and 36 hrs

2/3 Probability circle of 36, 59, and 79nm at 12, 24, and 36hrs.
18, 30, 40nm for radii.

What am I missing? A sincere question, btw.

I will take your good advice and go back and review each run for model OFCL. But it may be after lunch!
I have lots of respect for P so this is no comment on his points. Just adding to the discussion. I mentioned this a few weeks ago that those NW "turn" forecasts are also problematic sometimes based upon conditions. Katrina's "cone" kept drifting from East to West as the turn did not come as early as initially forecast and everyone from the Bahamas to Alabama was on pins and needles waiting for the turn as the cone kept moving from the Bahamas, through Florida, etc. to the West. It was certainly not a perfect forecast turn-wise, but, at the end of the day there was at least 24 hours of warning at the eventual point of landfall.

Is 92L actually moving??? Doesn't look like the 850 MB vort is moving as I trend it for 12 hrs on the CIMSS map.
LOL... I thought he was implying that the solar flares were causing the disagreement about Emily's forecast.  I'm slow.
Quoting SuperYooper:


I wanted to say the same thing last week but was afraid of fire and pitchforks. The storm did seem to have strange timing of dissipating with the solar flares.

1380. P451
Quoting beell:


Is that not model error? As opposed to the skinny black line and surrounding cone that represents the official forecast?



I thought...

The official forecast is the center line.

The cone is the projected error potential of the forecast.

The cone is the mariner's forecast error rule of 1-2-3

Day 1 - 100mile, 2-200, 3-300 etc.

A forecast 3 days out can have an error area of 300 miles.

If you're 150 miles off either side of the forecast point - your forecast is incorrect. Yet, you correctly warned those following your forecast of that possibility of being off.

Being in the cone but not on the forecast track is an admittance of issuing an incorrect forecast track.
Welcome and greetings from NC.  Don't hesitate to post anything including questions.  These people are very knowledgeable and fun:)
Quoting LurkerLizSC:
Good morning all. I'm a long time lurker and would only post during "slow" times, so not to interfere. I appreciate your information and good-natured sense of community. Thanks!

Quoting beell:




Using the default filter "Error Type (Entire storm) and "Interval 12 hrs"
I don't see those errors. 4.4, 7.1, and 9.2nm at 12, 24, and 36 hrs

2/3 Probability circle of 36, 59, and 79nm at 12, 24, and 36hrs.
18, 30, 40nm for radii.

What am I missing? A sincere question, btw.

I will take your good advice and go back and review each run for model OFCL. But it may be after lunch!


Looks like you scrolled down too far into intensity errors.
My timeline:
August 9th: 92L gets a 10% chance of developing and so does the little swirl next to the Lesser Antillies.
August 10th: 92L ups to 30% and the swirl becomes 20% and 93L.
August 11th: 92L goes to 50%. 93L to 40%.
August 12th: 92L down to 40%. 93L now at 50%.
August 13th: 92L jumps to 70% 400 miles east of PR. 93L 60% 400 miles from Belize.
August 14th: 92L becomes Franklin in the P.M. 93L 70%.
August 15th: Franklin becomes 50 mph and 93L becomes TD7 in the P.M.
August 16th: TD7 is now Gert heading to Texas peaking at 80mph. Franklin is now 70 mph recurving as a Cat. 4 but hitting Long Island eventually.
Quoting NavarreMark:


You may be on to something. Maybe we should study the correlation between Aurora Borialis and the intensity tropical activity.


Obviously the higher the keV the more Aurora we have. Thats a given. We know the results of what happens with the Aurora.

What we don't know is how this affects storm systems. Regular solar wind helps the world go round but what about a massive plasma ejection? The latest had a keV just above a 7. Does that release the charged particles that are normally in the Van Allen belt?

Mars has a very thin atmosphere, hence the affects of regular solar wind help to strip the atmosphere away from that planet. Does the same thing happen when big solar flares reach off for us?

Lots of things we don't know and the sun is something the NHC can't take into account yet.
1385. beell
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
so, I take it Emily won't be hitting New Orleans?


No. But I'm sure some convention attendee will be hitting on somebody named Emily while in NOLA.
Quoting P451:


When people announce that the NHC did a perfect or great job with the storm - it's not my criteria - it's theirs, and that's what I'm pointing to here.

It's not difficult to place a storm in the large cone of error. It's even easier when you get a do-over with the cone every six hours.

To me being in the cone doesn't make the forecast correct. It doesn't mean they did a great job with the storm.

Following the forecast points would make the forecast correct and would be a great job.

It didn't therefore the forecast was not great. They kept forecasting early northern turns. They did not come.

While the NHC was busy forecasting sharp northern turns in their cone every average joe on this blog was watching the satellite imagery head west and watching the storm head south of the forecast points.

The cone had the storm being anywhere from a real threat to Florida to a non-issue. Just because the storm ended up within those broad possibilities does not mean it was a great forecasting job.

I'm not sure how every single individual would analyze such a situation but the conclusion I have come to is the forecast was incorrect.


Very well said, and correct.
1389. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks like you scrolled down too far into intensity errors.


Snort/Duh!
49.2 81.4 91.0nm for 12, 24, and 36hrs.

Thanks for your continuing support of this blog and mis-guided bloggers!
1391. K8eCane
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
so, I take it Emily won't be hitting New Orleans?




Morning everyone...and I take it Emily wont be hitting Wilmington as a cat 2/3
1392. shfr173
What is the groups opinion on Invest 92 fish or not?
Slow day.
Quoting shfr173:
What is the groups opinion on Invest 92 fish or not?

Opinion: No
1395. K8eCane
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Opinion: No



maybe
Quoting floodzonenc:
LOL... I thought he was implying that the solar flares were causing the disagreement about Emily's forecast.  I'm slow.



I come in last in three-legged races. No worries.
Yes... Emily's remnants will loop back, reorganize, intensify and strike Wilmington as a major.

The Emergency Operations Center is meeting tonight to plan at MacTavish's Pub on Water Street...

Maybe the Old North State is safe for a few more days... :P
Quoting K8eCane:




Morning everyone...and I take it Emily wont be hitting Wilmington as a cat 2/3

1398. K8eCane
Quoting floodzonenc:
Yes... Emily's remnants will loop back, reorganize, intensify and strike Wilmington as a major.

The Emergency Operations Center is meeting tonight to plan at MacTavish's Pub on Water Street...

Maybe the Old North State is safe for a few more days... :P




Ha!
Quoting beell:


Snort/Duh!
49.2 81.4 91.0nm for 12, 24, and 36hrs.

Thanks for your continuing support of this blog and mis-guided bloggers!


Against cone radii of 36, 59 and 79 nm.
Quoting P451:



I thought...

The official forecast is the center line.

The cone is the projected error potential of the forecast.

The cone is the mariner's forecast error rule of 1-2-3

Day 1 - 100mile, 2-200, 3-300 etc.

A forecast 3 days out can have an error area of 300 miles.

If you're 150 miles off either side of the forecast point - your forecast is incorrect. Yet, you correctly warned those following your forecast of that possibility of being off.

Being in the cone but not on the forecast track is an admittance of issuing an incorrect forecast track.


Cone is not calculated that way, see 1372.
Cone radii for this year

12 hour = 36 nm
24 hour = 59 nm
36 hour = 79 nm
48 hour = 98 nm
72 hour = 144 nm
96 hour = 190 nm
120 hour = 239 nm
1402. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Against cone radii of 36, 59 and 79 nm.


I thought that was circle diameter listed.

Radii of NHC forecast cone circles for 2011, based on error statistics from 2006-2010:

I think I'm almost there! I should go back to work.
1403. aquak9
Quoting shfr173:
What is the groups opinion on Invest 92 fish or not?

fish
Good morning, aqua!
Quoting aquak9:

fish

92L (if it develops) will most likely NOT curve out to sea. High pressure remains dominant and we should see weak troughs. Expect a westward track, may go north of the Caribbean Islands. Though this is far fetched right now.
the dust itself doesn't have a direct suppressing effect on hurricanes, but sometimes wind shear and/or dry and stable air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can slow the development of depressions and tropical storms in the first place. But well-developed hurricanes often last or strengthen despite proximity to the SAL.
1407. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If it had convection, it would probably be Invest 93L. As you can see from this image, it has a closed, low level circulation.



That llc has just been left behind. Was basically stationary yesterday. The upper levels? Moving rapidly. That's a long way for convection to get displaced in just one day.

hEY AQUAK.hAVE YOU EVER SEEN A INVEST DESIGNATED,with no mention on the outlook,no colors on the map?I guess the nhc thinks very little of this.As a matter of fact the last run was at 1:pm yesterday lol.
1409. K8eCane
Quoting reedzone:
92L (if it develops) will most likely NOT curve out to sea. High pressure remains dominant and we should see weak troughs. Expect a westward track, may go north of the Caribbean Islands. Though this is far fetched right now.



Hey Reed...just for fun (because I think your forecasts are awesome) do an analysis of 92L all the way across and what you think it will do
1410. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Cone is not calculated that way, see 1372.
Cone radii for this year

12 hour = 36 nm
24 hour = 59 nm
36 hour = 79 nm
48 hour = 98 nm
72 hour = 144 nm
96 hour = 190 nm
120 hour = 239 nm


So 1 day diameter = 118, 2 day = 196, 3 day = 288, 4 day = 380, 5 day = 478

Instead of the mariner's diameter rule of 100, 200, 300, 400, 500

Still the same ballpark.

It's still error potential not a forecast track. If your storm is within the error potential what you did good was project your own error properly.



So WHY aren't the models updated for 92L yet??
interesting. nice analysis reedzone

On another note, people keep saying that this year is similar to 2008. If that is so (I know they are not going to be exactly the same), Florida may not have much to worry about

That probably sounds crazy
So WHY aren't the models updated for 92L yet??
Quoting tropicalweather2011:
the dust itself doesn't have a direct suppressing effect on hurricanes, but sometimes wind shear and/or dry and stable air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) can slow the development of depressions and tropical storms in the first place. But well-developed hurricanes often last or strengthen despite proximity to the SAL.
If it where just dust it would help because of the dust it would allow more necleation points for the rain drops, increasing convenction, however the dry stable air cancel out any positives.
sry for the double post.
Quoting P451:


So 1 day diameter = 118, 2 day = 196, 3 day = 288, 4 day = 380, 5 day = 478

Instead of the mariner's diameter rule of 100, 200, 300, 400, 500

Still the same ballpark.

It's still error potential not a forecast track. If your storm is within the error potential what you did good was project your own error properly.





Based on the skill they have demonstrated during the last 5 years. Unfortunately we have no one else to compare them against, since I don't know of anyone producing date/timestamp lat/lon track forecasts.
Ahh Pat, here's hoping we don't need any of that. A nice TS with good rain would be welcome though.
Quoting kshipre1:
interesting. nice analysis reedzone

On another note, people keep saying that this year is similar to 2008. If that is so (I know they are not going to be exactly the same), Florida may not have much to worry about

That probably sounds crazy


It does sound crazy because Florida was hit with Fay in 2008 and that was no small system. The tracks should be much closer to land this year. Very little recurvatures.
1421. P451
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
hEY AQUAK.hAVE YOU EVER SEEN A INVEST DESIGNATED,with no mention on the outlook,no colors on the map?I guess the nhc thinks very little of this.As a matter of fact the last run was at 1:pm yesterday lol.


Although there is no official confirmation I would suspect it has been deactivated. Last ATCF position fix was 18Z yesterday.



Everything out there collapsed convection wise. The huge wave that was over Africa yesterday that was modeled to develop (actually much more so than 92L) completely collapsed as well - however it did also act to moisten the are and wipe out some of the SAL. The twin blobs of 92L - one sheared WSW rapidly leaving a circulation behind while the east blob, the actual 92L tagged blob, got stretched north to south in a hurry.

92L came out, looked good, persisted, was designated, and then fell apart in many ways. It has since become a large broad circulation devoid of convection.

Does it deserve an invest rating right now? I would say no. They could have deactivated it 6 hours after activating it.

It won't lose that rotation anytime soon so it should be monitored all the way across the basin for signs of organization.

What will 92L do? There isn't any moisture out there to work with at the moment so I wouldn't expect anything spectacular to happen in the short term with it.



You know, you could have lifted the entire argument over foreast accuracy from any year since I've been here. Same comments, same posts just different handles...except for the "argument" from, was it 07? Anyway, the amazing stormcat got into a running 3 day gun battle with...who was it? Pat, do you recall? Regardless, if memorry serves that battle raged across several bans.

Anyway, if you're looking for perfection in forecasting you're living in the wrong century...or at the least, the wrong half of the century.
afternoon folks... Hey water pup...
only reason I was saying that was because Fay was not exactly one of those knockout storms Florida got like they had in 2004 and 2005.

Fay did cause flooding to most of the state but not what I would call a damaging hurricane

Also, in 2008, the high was so strong it just steered everything west towards Texas and away from Florida.

are you stating that the high will also be strong but in a different position where it will steer closer to if not at Florida?
Naval Postgraduate School synopsis on P14L (92L)


SYNOPSIS 2011080800

P14L
12N, 21W
700 hPa

The story of a single, easily-tracked pouch is gone!

ECMWF: P14L is stationary just off the coast of Africa as another weak wave approaches from the east. P14L and the other wave/pouch (I have never tracked this eastern wave/pouch) merge during Day 2. Then this merged pouch, which I continue to call P14L, initially moves northwestward, but then it moves southwestward and dissipates after 96 hours. Meanwhile, two other pouches are depicted later in the forecast period. (1) An area of elevated and OW values to the southeast of P14L, and (2) A small 700-hPa pouch moves from the subtropics toward the southwest ahead of/west of P14L. This pouch develops and then moves westward toward the Caribbean. (I have always thought that 2010's Matthew had similar origins, so this potential pouch needs monitoring.)

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, except that after the merger, P14L moves northwestward into the subtropical ridge and dissipates. GFS also depicts the eventual tropical pouch to the southeast as well as the subtropical pouch that moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, with an early merger, motion into and dissipation in the subtropical ridge, and even the development of another 700-hPa subtropical development to the west.

NOGAPS: Outlier!! Like other models, NOGAPS hints at an early merger, although the presence of the other wave/pouch is not so obvious in the fields. However, NOGAPS does not move P14L northwestward, but rather, moves westward, but with a somewhat erratic track. By Day 5, P14L is elongated zonally, so it appears to be just part of the ITCZ.

it seems the storms are coming closer to New England Every year
Kyle in 08 was 150ish miles off Cape Cod
Bill in 09 was 100ish miles off Cape Cod
Earl in 10' was 50ish miles off Cape Cod
So this year will a storm hit Cape Cod
Quoting Floodman:
You know, you could have lifted the entire argument over foreast accuracy from any year since I've been here. Same comments, same posts just different handles...except for the "argument" from, was it 07? Anyway, the amazing stormcat got into a running 3 day gun battle with...who was it? Pat, do you recall? Regardless, if memorry serves that battle raged across several bans.

Anyway, if you're looking for perfection in forecasting you're living in the wrong century...or at the least, the wrong half of the century.


That would also render a blog about Tropical Storms .... Useless and a waste of time....
See, we don't need tropical cyclones in Florida, a classic August pattern taking shape, streams of tropical showers and thunderstorms moving across the State off the gulf.
1430. Patrap
1423. Floodman 11:10

I remember dat..

It was a slug fest of data and interesting to say the least.

I've been ban-less for over a year now.


I got 1 year Wu no-ban chip too.


The profit-sharing kicks n @ 100K post as well.

: )
1431. Patrap
Man,I do have to admit I lub "pouch tracking" .
Index Country Change % Change Level Last Update
Dow Jones Industrial Average United States -338.57 -2.96% 11,106.04 12:22:08pm ET
S&P 500 Index United States -45.91 -3.83% 1,153.47 12:20pm ET
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Brazil -2,846.12 -5.38% 50,103.10 12:05pm ET
Canada S&P/TSX 60 Canada -14.79 -2.14% 677.05 12:06pm ET
Santiago Index IPSA Chile -174.20 -4.28% 3,891.89 12:03pm ET
IPC Mexico -1,006.68 -2.99% 32,691.19 12:01pm ET

1433. Patrap
Having a Weds meeting with a Local Guy here who started evacuteer.org.



so, did we finally come to an agreement that Andrew was worse than Katrina, in all aspects?

1435. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Naval Postgraduate School synopsis on P14L (92L)


SYNOPSIS 2011080800

P14L
12N, 21W
700 hPa

The story of a single, easily-tracked pouch is gone!

ECMWF: P14L is stationary just off the coast of Africa as another weak wave approaches from the east. P14L and the other wave/pouch (I have never tracked this eastern wave/pouch) merge during Day 2. Then this merged pouch, which I continue to call P14L, initially moves northwestward, but then it moves southwestward and dissipates after 96 hours. Meanwhile, two other pouches are depicted later in the forecast period. (1) An area of elevated and OW values to the southeast of P14L, and (2) A small 700-hPa pouch moves from the subtropics toward the southwest ahead of/west of P14L. This pouch develops and then moves westward toward the Caribbean. (I have always thought that 2010's Matthew had similar origins, so this potential pouch needs monitoring.)

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, except that after the merger, P14L moves northwestward into the subtropical ridge and dissipates. GFS also depicts the eventual tropical pouch to the southeast as well as the subtropical pouch that moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: Similar to GFS, with an early merger, motion into and dissipation in the subtropical ridge, and even the development of another 700-hPa subtropical development to the west.

NOGAPS: Outlier!! Like other models, NOGAPS hints at an early merger, although the presence of the other wave/pouch is not so obvious in the fields. However, NOGAPS does not move P14L northwestward, but rather, moves westward, but with a somewhat erratic track. By Day 5, P14L is elongated zonally, so it appears to be just part of the ITCZ.



Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.

1436. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
afternoon folks... Hey water pup...


ahhh...how'd you know I was lurking? :)
1437. DFWjc
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
so, did we finally come to an agreement that Andrew was worse than Katrina, in all aspects?



No
Hey, ya'll.... I see our invest of derringdo is not doing so much today....

I'll prolly lurk around some.... but enjoying the break while it lasts.... lol
1439. aquak9
Hi ncfloodzone! HotPockets on da house!!

Saint- yeah I put up a sprinkler in the yard last week, I think they invested it...but I kept moving it in order to confuse the model's initiation.
Quoting Patrap:
Having a Weds meeting with a Local Guy here who started evacuteer.org.





Great idea he had! New Orleanians should be models for other Gulf cities.
Quoting Waltanater:
So WHY aren't the models updated for 92L yet??
has gone stealth mode we got nothing there at the moment but a ghost
1442. Patrap
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.
Quoting beell:


Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.

i believe when camile was a pouch she came wsw across the atlantic too if you look at her early tw track she came from the northern c.verde islands
Quoting Methurricanes:
it seems the storms are coming closer to New England Every year
Kyle in 08 was 150ish miles off Cape Cod
Bill in 09 was 100ish miles off Cape Cod
Earl in 10' was 50ish miles off Cape Cod
So this year will a storm hit Cape Cod


Naw it will miss cape cod by 25 miles, loop around and hit JFV's house and then come and hit cape cod
Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.


I don't even want to imagine all it takes to coordinate a mass evacuation of that size. I know how crazy it was here for Rita and we are all pretty much small towns. My hat is off to this man, yourself and others who organize such large scale life saving missions.
Quoting beell:


Pretty interesting, nrt.

Same area that generated a couple of comments yesterday:

811. beell 11:40 PM GMT on August 07, 2011
Quoting hydrus:
Check out this model with a storm moving W-SW through the Central Atlantic...

Saw that on the GFS. Stronger on the 18Z but noticable on the 12Z which recurves it.

A shortwave pinching off a vort in the central Atlantic just ahead of 92L. Course you might have to also consider this an indication of the weakness that could turn 92L out.



Looks like the latest GFS has flipped back to development, flip-flop-flip
1447. beell
Quoting islander101010:
i believe when camile was a pouch she came wsw across the atlantic too


According to Camille's history she moved pretty much due west as a wave towards the eastern Caribbean in the heart of the MDR.

Pouch theory was formulated recently-post Camille from a database of storms in 1998-2001.

But I bet she had a pretty pouch.

1448. shfr173
ok i'll bite, what is a pouch?
1449. Bijou
Yep, a lot came together for Gustav. I was proud of us, organizations at many levels worked well together to make the Gustav evac as painless as possible.

New Orleans should develop a grass roots disaster mitigation, response and recovery industry. We're in the perfect place to help with planning, response and recovery to any natural disaster in the Gulf South.

Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.
At the end of the day loss of life is the greatest tragedy from any hurricane and Andrew, in spite of the "economic" damage and Cat 5 upgrade, pales in comparison to the loss of life with Katrina.
Quoting shfr173:
ok i'll bite, what is a pouch?


Link
1452. DFWjc
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
At the end of the day loss of life is the greatest tragedy from any hurricane and Andrew, in spite of the "economic" damage and Cat 5 upgrade, pales in comparison to the loss of life with Katrina.


Katrina had 81 billion to Andrew's 26.5 bilion dollars of damage.. loss of life was Katrina 1836 to Andrew's 65.
1453. shfr173
thanks for the link!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Index Country Change % Change Level Last Update
Dow Jones Industrial Average United States -338.57 -2.96% 11,106.04 12:22:08pm ET
S&P 500 Index United States -45.91 -3.83% 1,153.47 12:20pm ET
Brazil Bovespa Stock Index Brazil -2,846.12 -5.38% 50,103.10 12:05pm ET
Canada S&P/TSX 60 Canada -14.79 -2.14% 677.05 12:06pm ET
Santiago Index IPSA Chile -174.20 -4.28% 3,891.89 12:03pm ET
IPC Mexico -1,006.68 -2.99% 32,691.19 12:01pm ET



yeah, its getting ugly
Quoting Patrap:
Its first run,,was Gustav and it went really well here.


Nice and the 3D art work will look cool around the city too.
Giving direction and education to the masses.
12Z GFS develops 92L
1457. JLPR2
Mid-level circulation finally moved WSW and sort of aligned with the LLC, 91L is better structurally, doing poorly convection-wise.

i wouldnt call troughing over the nw gom a classic august pattern,that wouldbe ridging off the east coast of fl
12z GFS does develop 92L, but shows it developing after 50W, this is probably if 92L does develop where it would try to develop.
For those with a need to track something in the tropics...

Nyad headed toward Key West:

http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2011/07/specia ls/map.diana.nyad/index.html
****ne gom
1462. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS does develop 92L, but shows it developing after 50W, this is probably if 92L does develop where it would try to develop.


That's the strongest the GFS has ever showed 92L; but nah... It should drop it on the next run. XD
1463. beell
Kinda hard to say if it is the "original" 92L that develops in the 12Z. And in a practical sense it probably does not matter.

A strong monsoonal gyre in place off the coast of Africa-which accounts for the nearly stationary movement in the model at first. At least a piece of the wave heads NW followed by another development farther south. Might best be viewed at 700mb.

But it does bring something out of the confusion (at least mine) headed west.
1464. Hattie
Hi everyone. If you run the loop from MIMIC TPW, it look like 92 is trying to get going... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/na tl/main.html
1465. Grothar
Quoting reedzone:
12Z GFS develops 92L


I can't find it reed, What link are you using?
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link
1467. JLPR2
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


Its been naked since yesterday, would be more interesting if it had convection closeby.
1468. navarch
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


Only thing I can gather is a major pole shift...
How come we have 92 with no yellow cirle? nhc doesnt even mention it
1470. beell
Quoting blsealevel:
ohhh Ummm well maybe nothing but this just dont look right.

Link


No it doesn't. First 7 frames must be out of wack as far as time and date stamp. No naked swirl. Added: Or just a floater shift.
: - )
Quoting Grothar:


I can't find it reed, What link are you using?

Link
1472. Hattie
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.
I hope you all know what ruckusboondocks means....it's not a very nice character off of the show...Anywho still no circle for 92L?.
1475. klew136
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link


good article I learn something new on here everyday!!
Quoting JLPR2:


Its been naked since yesterday, would be more interesting if it had convection closeby.


That would help, also looking at watervapor
shows its drifting on the outer edge of the massive amount of dry air to its east side and the west to east winds have some plans for it later too.

Also whats going on in the Carib, developing ULL or something?
Quoting Hattie:
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.


Yep
1478. klew136
Quoting stillwaiting:
i wouldnt call troughing over the nw gom a classic august pattern,that wouldbe ridging off the east coast of fl


AS USUAL...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVING LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THIS SITUATION
COMES INTO FRUITION...WHICH IS HIGHLY ABNORMAL FOR AUGUST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL END UP HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED.
1479. WhoDat1
Quoting Hattie:
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.


We see you..
1480. Seawall
Quoting Hattie:
Guys, this is a test.I am not sure if my posts are posting...Could somebody please let me know if they see this.


See ya!