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Tropical Depression Emily Reforms, Rain for the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on August 07, 2011

As of 11PM EDT, Tropical Depression Emily was located at 27.4N, 78.2W, 70 miles NNE of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. It was moving north at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb. No watches or warnings are in effect for Emily at this time.

Figure 1 IR satellite view of Emily taken at 1200AM EDT, August 7, 2011

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily were recognized as a tropical depression after analysis of surface observations, satellite imagery, and Hurricane Hunter flights showed that Emily had achieved a closed circulation again. However, at this time, it is not expected to do much beyond raining heavily (1-3 inches, 6 inches in isolated regions) over the Bahamas. As Figure 2 shows, NHC forecasts Emily to move north and then sharply eastwards before dissipating as it merges with a front. The westerly wind shear associated with this front will be the likely cause for Emily's second demise.

Figure 2 Official track forecast of Emily.

As Figure 3 shows, the concerns for rain from Emily is justified based on past behavior. Satellite estimates shows that on August 4, 3-5 inches of rain fell just south of Hispaniola, with 1-2 inches falling on the southern Dominican Republic.

Figure 3 Satellite-estimated precipitation (mm) for Thursday, August 4 using the CMORPH techniques. Data provided by the Climate Prediction Center

If the situation warrants, we will have a new blog entry Sunday. Otherwise, we will resume the normal posting schedule on Monday.

Thanks for reading,

Dr. Rob Carver

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.