WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression Eleven forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

Tropical Depression Eleven has formed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica, and appears poised to intensify into Tropical Storm Ida later today. TD 11 has increased its organization and heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, and visible satellite loops clearly show the rotation of TD 11's cloud pattern. The presence of a surface circulation was not evident in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, but the satellite presentation of TD 11 was convincing enough to allow NHC to declare this a tropical depression. QuikSCAT saw top winds in the 25 - 30 mph range this morning, and winds at San Andreas Island, about 80 miles north of the center of TD 11, were easterly at 28 mph at 9am EST.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 11 over the Atlantic off the coast of Costa Rica, Invest 96E over the East Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, and cloudiness over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche associated with the remains of an old cold front.

TD 11 is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range as long as the storm remains south of 14N latitude (central Nicaragua). Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development. A limiting factor for development may be the formation of a tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific south of Guatemala. If this new disturbance grows strong enough, it may compete with TD 11 for moisture.

The forecast for TD 11
The forecast for TD 11 is highly complex with high uncertainty. Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and TD 11 will move slowly over the next two days. The future steering of TD 11 will strongly depend upon the development and track of the Invest 96E disturbance 500 miles to its west. If 96E develops and tracks northwards towards Guatemala, as suggested by the GFDL model, TD 11 would likely be steered northwards later this week, remaining over water as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Monday. If, on the other hand, 96E moves due west away from 97E, as suggested by the NOGAPS model, 97E might also move due west, over Nicaragua, and emerge over the Eastern Pacific early next week. Another complicating influence might be the development of an extratropical or subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday or Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche this weekend, along the remains of an old cold front. This low is expected to track northwards towards Louisiana, and might act to also pull TD 11 northwards. The exact amount of steering influence this extratropical low and 96E might have on TD 11 depends strongly on how large and intense TD 11 becomes. At present, TD 11 is a very small system, and so is only being affecting by steering influences in its immediate vicinity.

If TD 11 intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, the storm will probably tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into TD 11's circulation, bringing 3 - 6 inches of rain today through Friday. Heavier rains are likely along the east coast of Nicaragua, where an intense spiral band of rainfall has formed this morning. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate TD 11 this afternoon to see if it has become Tropical Storm Ida.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall amounts from Typhoon Mirinae. Rainfall in excess of eight inches (200 mm, red colors) affected portions of central Vietnam. Image credit: NASA TRMM project.

Typhoon Mirinae kills at least 90 in Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae hit Vietnam Monday as a Category 1 typhoon, dumping rains responsible for at least 90 deaths, with 22 people missing. Over 200,000 people were stranded, 700 homes destroyed, and 13,000 homes damaged by the typhoon. Mirinae intensified suddenly just before landfall, bringing rainfall in excess of 8 inches (200 mm) to portions of central Vietnam (Figure 2). In the Philippines, rainfall amounts were lower--generally less than six inches. Mirinae killed at least 27 people in the Philippines.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:


Not unusual at all.Seen them down to 120 ft off the deck.
Those aint Sw pilots a flying..nor Delta.


Yeah, I know they can and have.

Just in looking, seemed odd.

In the span of four minutes at 30 second intervals they went:

412 meters
(~ 1,352 feet)

245 meters
(~ 804 feet)

208 meters
(~ 682 feet)

181 meters
(~ 594 feet)

197 meters
(~ 646 feet)

176 meters
(~ 577 feet)

176 meters
(~ 577 feet)

195 meters
(~ 640 feet)

478 meters
(~ 1,568 feet)

Looks for sure they weren't comfortable down there as they are flying at 2400ft now.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



NHC forecast 52 mph by 00Z


Exactly
Quoting Patrap:


No..inverted in a F-4F under the Savannah Bridge along River street was it for me.


That would do it, lol.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


That would do it, lol.


no doubt lol

good afternoon all
The recon may be back at a flight level now of 2400 ft, but they must have thought they were on a fire fighting mission when they went down to 500 ft. Never saw a HHC go that low.
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah, I know they can and have.

Just in looking, seemed odd.

In the span of four minutes at 30 second intervals they went:

412 meters
(~ 1,352 feet)

245 meters
(~ 804 feet)

208 meters
(~ 682 feet)

181 meters
(~ 594 feet)

197 meters
(~ 646 feet)

176 meters
(~ 577 feet)

176 meters
(~ 577 feet)

195 meters
(~ 640 feet)

478 meters
(~ 1,568 feet)

Looks for sure they weren't comfortable down there as they are flying at 2400ft now.


The Low Level Pass is required for a Surface SMFR reading ..

Or the Cmdr was choking out one of the Four Turboprop Engines in the Lower air.
a way to rebuild trust would be for a head honcho from the nhc to call daniel ortega warning him of the danger they are a democracy
The NHC may nudge the track west a bit to account for the WNW movement this morning but, all in all, their track looks good as it stands.
Whoa. Very interesting if this were true.

Seems they found the center.

998.3 mb
(~ 29.48 inHg)
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Looking at all the lastest models runs most of the the models shows a land fall in New Orleans,very strange for this time of the year with all the strong fronts coming and pushing this type of systems to the NE.


Please; too early to go there.....Unless you are Stormtop............. :)
Center around 11.9N 82.6W

Pressure just found is 998.3mb

Winds around 45mph
Finding pressure at 998mb
AL112009 - Tropical Storm ELEVEN

Rammb Cira Site
998 is down, and a bunch,..if that Holds.

Most Likely not,as it was measured at altitude.
Looks like it was moving due west, last few frames it looks like NNW movement.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Center around 11.9N 82.6W

Pressure just found is 998.3mb

Winds around 45mph


Those coordinates are where I see the center.
Wow! 998 mb. I don't remember offhand but what's the qualifying drop / timeframe for RI?
Ida appears to starting to move a bit NW to NNW
Quoting Patrap:
998 is down, and a bunch


That's 8mb in 5 hours. Could be classified as rapid intensification if it is valid.


This is the track i think it will take.. Katrina of '99.

I'm talking track, not intensity, so dont call me a downcaster because Katrina of '99 died out as it approached the GOM.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Wow! 998 mb. I don't remember offhand but what's the qualifying drop / timeframe for RI?


not sure we could even quantify that since we do not know what the pressures were before recon got there
Wow! This thing organized quickly!
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Looks like it was moving due west, last few frames it looks like NNW movement.


If it has started moving NNW then that intensification boost may be valid since a stronger system would go more to the north.
526. P451




Honestly, I wasn't saying RI was happening, I asked if anyone thought if maybe it was occuring while recon is investigating...
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


not sure we could even quantify that since we do not know what the pressures were before recon got there

True but the satellite estimates with the NHC reasoning yielded 1006mb at 11:00am and now the lowest pressure is found at 998mb at 3:00pm. That's 8mb in 5 hours.
Quoting Drakoen:


True but the satellite estimates with the NHC reasoning yielded 1006mb at 11:00am and now the lowest pressure is found at 998mb at 3:00pm. That's 8mb in 5 hours.


That is true too lol, guess we will see if pressures continue to drop while recon is in there
Beautiful Tropical Storm!

Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, I wasn't saying RI was happening, I asked if anyone thought if maybe it was occuring while recon is investigating...


yes, you did. I remember that post, :)
Post 526 - dew points near 70 are pretty low for the Caribbean isn't it?
The outflow to the NW tells you that is the basic direction it will head
535. P451
Heres what I think the 4pm Advisory will look like.

Winds: 45mph
Pressure: 1000mb

I'd like to see another pass though.
Quoting Drakoen:


But BAP's point is this: for all we know that even though estimates were 1006mb it could have been anywhere from 1000-1009+. Thus it could have REALLY really strengthened or it could be just a little drop. Since no one was in the storm we just don't know. If it keeps dropping we can assume (You know what that makes us) that it's strengthening fast.
For RI to usually occur,,a complete Eyewall and a Eye usually is present,..and usually a Hurricane..
We have neither here.
So a rapid drop in Pressure would denote a gathering Tropical Storm,..but RI..?

I seriously doubt that. One has to load the cart,before moving it.

539. P451
Quoting tornadofan:
Post 526 - dew points near 70 are pretty low for the Caribbean isn't it?


I haven't liked the temperature readings the aircraft has put out all mission. They've seemed low all along the way. I think something is suspect there. I wouldn't trust it.
Correct me if im wrong but, if this were stronger than wouldn't it head more east than west?

Quoting leftovers:
a way to rebuild trust would be for a head honcho from the nhc to call daniel ortega warning him of the danger they are a democracy
They are a democracy, with a democratic elected social democrat, president; that's the will of the people.
Quoting reedzone:
Could Ida be undergoing rapid intensification while the Hurricane Hunters are investigating?? Just a simple thought..


To post 532.. No, I didn't say it was happening, I was asking if it could be happening because of the pressure drop and higher winds..
Quoting Patrap:
For RI to usually occur,,a complete Eyewall and a Eye usually is present,..and usually a Hurricane..
We have neither here.
So a rapid drop in Pressure would denote a gathering Tropical Storm,..but RI..?

I seriously doubt that. One has to load the cart,before moving it.



I can do both at the same time, well... I did it once cuz I was in a rush, but I have done it!
Anyone got a quick link to access Hurricane Hunters Sortie Patterns in Ggogle Earth - lost mine on last G Earth Upgrade.

Thanks
545. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Correct me if im wrong but, if this were stronger than wouldn't it head more east than west?



More poleward (north).

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Correct me if im wrong but, if this were stronger than wouldn't it head more east than west?



Yea I think the basic thought of most of us was a stronger system would end up further east
Quoting Bordonaro:

No one is gong to yell at you! Earthquakes are discussed here as well.

Truthfully, I am concerned about all the water main breaks in the Los Angeles Metro area over the last few months. That section of the San Andreas usually pops off a 7.5+Mw every 150yrs. I understand that the "Big One" is overdue by about 30 yrs!



ummm... you didn't see the blog this morning.
Quoting P451:


More poleward (north).



LOL

Thats what I meant.
Redundant.
550. P451
Quoting SSideBrac:
Anyone got a quick link to access Hurricane Hunters Sortie Patterns in Ggogle Earth - lost mine on last G Earth Upgrade.

Thanks


Link
Quoting P451:


More poleward (north).



yep always more poleward, east/west is usually due to other factors.
552. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL

Thats what I meant.


haha. I figured you meant as much, but, let it lie all the same just in case. rofl.
553. amd
Quoting P451:


I haven't liked the temperature readings the aircraft has put out all mission. They've seemed low all along the way. I think something is suspect there. I wouldn't trust it.


those air temp readings are at flight level. So, at 2500 feet, you are seeing air temps and dewpoints around 70 degrees.

Assuming a conservative increase of 4 degrees celsius F for every decrease of 1000 feet, I would suspect that the air and dew point temperatures at the surface are near 80 degrees.

All seem to be heading in the general direction of LA ATM.


What's the next name on the list?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Wow! 998 mb. I don't remember offhand but what's the qualifying drop / timeframe for RI?


A drop of one millibar per hour is considered “rapid intensification.” I believe this to be true. Could be wrong, often am.
Quoting P451:


haha. I figured you meant as much, but, let it lie all the same just in case. rofl.



Yeam im balancing this and work so im a bit scattered right now.
I wonder if they will issue a special advisory in the next few minutes to upgrade it to tropical storm strength!
Quoting InTheConeOIO:
What's the next name on the list?


Ida then Joaquin


Thats right im putting the Flag up. It's on.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder if they will issue a special advisory in the next few minutes to upgrade it to tropical storm strength!


possibly but since the new advisory is due out in about 40 minutes anyway, they will probably just release it as a normal advisory
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wonder if they will issue a special advisory in the next few minutes to upgrade it to tropical storm strength!


Why?

Theres a full advisory in about a half hour.
Or they just may wait until 4 p.m.---will be 4 soon enough.
P451 - Many thanks.
I think the center might just skirt the coast of Nigaragua, rather than make a direct landfall, jmo.
I don't believe there has been a November strike of a Hurricane west of Florida this century. Do not know about any Tropical Storms either. If anyone has this data, would be glad if you could post it. Like to be accurate as possible with this info.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the center might just skirt the coast of Nigaragua, rather than make a direct landfall, jmo.


Thats would be an extreme change in direction.
Quoting Grothar:
I don't believe there has been a November strike of a Hurricane west of Florida this century. Do not know about any Tropical Storms either. If anyone has this data, would be glad if you could post it. Like to be accurate as possible with this info.


mail
Vortex message has it at 998mb

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
570. xcool







Yeah I just remembered with the time change that the next advisory will be issued at 4.
Vortex message out, 998mb, winds of about 45mph

Eye characteristic is open to the SE lol
Yes, it is very strange that the models are not curving the system to the east once it's in the gulf due to a trof. With the amount of fronts that have already been in the gulf this year, I find it very unlikely that the system will have much of an opportunity to reach the northern gulf coast.
574. xcool
hi
The new sets of microwave images should be interesting.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


not sure we could even quantify that since we do not know what the pressures were before recon got there


I was going off previous estimated pressure of 1006mb.
12N 82.6W
hi all :)
Quoting Drakoen:
12N 82.6W


barely moving.
Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, I wasn't saying RI was happening, I asked if anyone thought if maybe it was occuring while recon is investigating...


This time of year in that region it certainly isn't out of the conversation...
GROTHAR----I don't believe there has been a November strike of a Hurricane west of Florida this century. Do not know about any Tropical Storms either. If anyone has this data, would be glad if you could post it. Like to be accurate as possible with this info. Hi Grothar, Juan in 1985 hit Louisiana, I don,t remember if it was a tropical storm or hurricane at landfall. a lot of damage though... Hurricane Kate hit the panhandle in November that same year. Someone said that Juan hit on halloween.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Vortex message out, 998mb, winds of about 45mph

Eye characteristic is open to the SE lol


If they say that then it actually must have the beginnings of an eye wall.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


But BAP's point is this: for all we know that even though estimates were 1006mb it could have been anywhere from 1000-1009+. Thus it could have REALLY really strengthened or it could be just a little drop. Since no one was in the storm we just don't know. If it keeps dropping we can assume (You know what that makes us) that it's strengthening fast.


Understood when he first posted it. The subsequent advisory after the 4pm will be telltale.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The new sets of microwave images should be interesting.


I'm interested to see those. Apparently the "eye" is open in the southeast but is circular.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


If they say that then it actually must have the beginnings of an eye wall.


L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Understood when he first posted it. The subsequent advisory after the 4pm will be telltale.


Agreed.
Quoting amd:


those air temp readings are at flight level. So, at 2500 feet, you are seeing air temps and dewpoints around 70 degrees.

Assuming a conservative increase of 4 degrees celsius F for every decrease of 1000 feet, I would suspect that the air and dew point temperatures at the surface are near 80 degrees.



that makes sense. Thanks!
Looking back through HURDAT, I can't find any tropical storms that hit the Gulf coast west of Florida during November during 1851-1925.
Quoting Seastep:


L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast


Which means like I said. The storm is in the process of forming an eye wall.
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm interested to see those. Apparently the "eye" is open in the southeast but is circular.


If an eye becomes established the game may change quite a bit.
589 - Yep.
For RI to occur a tropical cyclone doesn't need an eye or eyewall. I mean it would help a ton to have one since we normally look at hurricanes with RI with a matured eye and wall.
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
11L.IDA
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looking back through HURDAT, I can't find any tropical storms that hit the Gulf coast west of Florida during November during 1851-1925.


None have which is why i'm taking the models in the extended range with a gain of salt for the time being.
The WNW track will have to change quickly if it is to be a threat further to the north--Nicaragua may kill it.
Rapid Intensification is associated with a rapid drop in sea level pressure. Drak, if that report by the Hurricane Hunters then the game could be totally changed. In the last few visible frames it looks to be going a little more northward now. Perhaps the most interesting storm of the 2009 Hurricane Season.
Doesnt have much more time over water.


598. P451
36 Hours IR Loop: 97->TD11->Ida

Quoting hydrus:
Hi Grothar, Juan in 1985 hit Louisiana, I don,t remember if it was a tropical storm or hurricane at landfall. a lot of damage though... Hurricane Kate hit the panhandle in November that same year.


Ah, but the panhandle in still Florida. Thanks Hydrus. Do you know if any other than 1985 ever hit the region. I truly can't recall. I have look all the way back to the 1600's and can not find any.
97L to Eye Open To The SE in 7 hours. eek, no wonder the GFDL was blowing this one up.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looking back through HURDAT, I can't find any tropical storms that hit the Gulf coast west of Florida during November during 1851-1925.

Latest was Juan of '85 with a Oct 30 (?) LA landfall...

Edit: Nope, landfall on Halloween day...

I kinda remember a Halloween when we couldn't trick or treat when I was about 9...might be that one.
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm interested to see those. Apparently the "eye" is open in the southeast but is circular.


yea I was looking at that from the vortex message, usually that eye characteristic part is left blank for storms of this intensity

open to the SE tells me there is an eye developing already
I can't find a tropical storm database after 1925, so I can't say for certain that a tropical storm has not hit the Gulf coast west of Florida in November---but I can't think of any.
Quoting SQUAWK:
Ever notice that Joe B. and Tacoman have a lot in common?



Get real.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The WNW track will have to change quickly if it is to be a threat further to the north--Nicaragua may kill it.


doubt that, Nicaragua is very flat in that area of the country and the system is already moving NW
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The WNW track will have to change quickly if it is to be a threat further to the north--Nicaragua may kill it.

they don't have mtns hehe
Advanced dvorak technique

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2009 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 11:44:30 N Lon : 82:08:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.8 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -49.9C Cloud Region Temp : -54.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Rapid Intensification is associated with a rapid drop in sea level pressure. Drak, if that report by the Hurricane Hunters then the game could be totally changed. In the last few visible frames it looks to be going a little more northward now. Perhaps the most interesting storm of the 2009 Hurricane Season.


I see a motion the the NW. Convection is expanding westward but the circulation center is going poleward. I still think it will go inland somewhat but not to the extent of the HWRF and GFDL models.
Quoting Drakoen:


None have which is why i'm taking the models in the extended range with a gain of salt for the time being.
11LIDA.45kts-998mb-118N-823W Just got the information off the Navy Site
Quoting InTheConeOIO:
What's the next name on the list?


don't know if anyone answered you but it's joaquin
Looks like TS Ida is not playing here!!

00
URNT12 KNHC 042013
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/19:50:50Z
B. 11 deg 57 min N
082 deg 37 min W
C. 925 mb 670 m
D. 39 kt
E. 320 deg 6 nm
F. 067 deg 48 kt
G. 325 deg 16 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 19 C / 775 m
J. 23 C / 764 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C30

N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 19:45:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 19:54:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

Everyone needs to keep an eye on this one!!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


doubt that, Nicaragua is very flat in that area of the country and the system is already moving NW


Only shear will kill IDA. It's a wait and see on the shear in the Gomex for next week.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I can't find a tropical storm database after 1925, so I can't say for certain that a tropical storm has not hit the Gulf coast west of Florida in November---but I can't think of any.

If it was in LA and left a historical impression, it would prolly be listed here: http://www.thecajuns.com/lahurricanes.htm
Goes back to 1527, but good coverage starts in the early 1700s.
I will have a graphics update around 5 pm EDT.
Just as I suspected, Tropical Storm Ida, 50 mph., 998 mlb.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I can't find a tropical storm database after 1925, so I can't say for certain that a tropical storm has not hit the Gulf coast west of Florida in November---but I can't think of any.


I can not find any either. Thanks for looking. It this were to enter the Gulf, and miss Florida, it would really be an odd event. Odd year, 2009, in more ways that one.
Hi Storm,
What is TCHP? might seem like a stupid question, but I am learning....Don't usually comment. Just like to read everyone's comments, therefore these things sometimes don't make sense to me and I have to ask. Will not know until you ask, right?
Juan was 85,..and a real pain in the ..well,rear.





Hurricane Juan near peak intensity
Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle



Notice Juan's CONUS track,..Due N,..as no fronts were in Play for the Storms Duration
622. xcool
:0
Topographic map of Nicaragua and nearby areas:

624. jipmg
I really can't tell were its moving.. if it had an EYE I could tell, and an eye appearing on a 45mph tropical storm seems impossible?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


like I said flat along most of this storms path
small mtns to the west but its not going that way its going toward the flat part of the country
Quoting jipmg:
I really can't tell were its moving.. if it had an EYE I could tell, and an eye appearing on a 45mph tropical storm seems impossible?


Humberto and Gustav both had one.
remember...it's not too early to start thinking about the aftermath...
Link
Juan formed in the Central GOM in late October. Storms that form in the GOM (especially the central GOM) have a hard time avoiding the U.S.A.
SSI's map shows topography pretty flat, as long as it stays close to the coast. Honduras might cause problems if it enters any part of it not on the extreme east coast.
Quoting jipmg:
I really can't tell were its moving.. if it had an EYE I could tell, and an eye appearing on a 45mph tropical storm seems impossible?


Im pretty sure it has an eye, but is covered by cirrus clouds.
Let's see--from the Texas Hurricane History site:

November 1527: There is record of a hurricane destroying a merchant fleet on Galveston Island. Up to 200 lives were taken by the storm. This is the first record known of a hurricane along the Texas coastline and also one of the most unusual...it struck during the month of November; only one other hurricane has ever struck during November (1839).

Link for the site: Link
Quoting Grothar:


A drop of one millibar per hour is considered “rapid intensification.” I believe this to be true. Could be wrong, often am.


Thanks Grothar. That's what I was thinking of.
Hurricane Hunters are going in for another pass.


Should be interesting.
When Hurricane Michelle became a major hurricane with winds of 135 mph on Nov. 3, 2001, it was the first major Atlantic Basin hurricane in November since Hurricane Lenny in 1999 and only the sixth major hurricane in any November since 1900.

Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the last November hurricane to hit the USA, and also one of November's six major hurricanes. Kate was a Category 3 hurricane on Nov. 20 and 21 in the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before hitting the Florida Panhandle where it was blamed for five deaths.

The "Yankee hurricane" of 1935 formed over the Atlantic Ocean and moved to the southwest to hit the Miami area with 75 mph winds on Nov. 4. It moved along the Keys and then north into the Gulf of Mexico where it looped back around toward the east, but died before hitting Florida again. To many people in Florida any visitor from the north is a "Yankee," thus the "Yankee hurricane."

Storm number 2 of 1925. Only two tropical storms formed in 1925 with the first coming ashore near Brownsville, Texas, as a tropical storm in September. On Nov. 30, 1925 the year's second tropical storm strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane shortly before coming ashore south of Tampa Bay, Fla. After weakening back into a tropical storm, it crossed Florida to strengthen into a hurricane, but weakened into a tropical storm before hitting the North Carolina Outer Banks on Dec. 2. It was blamed for about 50 deaths, mostly on ships at sea.

Storm number 14 of 1916. Unlike 1925, 1916 was a busy year with 14 tropical storms on the record and all but three of them becoming hurricanes. Storm 14 formed in the western Caribbean on Nov. 11, but remained a tropical storm until Nov. 15 when it was off the western tip of Cuba where it became a category 1 hurricane that moved to the northeast along the Florida Keys with 75 mph winds and then into the Bahamas where it died.
The November major hurricanes since 1900 and before Michelle were:

Hurricane Lenny of 1999. It grew to be a 150 mph hurricane, just 6 mph shy of Category 5 status, tying Hurricane number 6 in 1912 as the strongest hurricane so late in the season. The 1912 November hurricane remained this strong longer than Lenny, however.

Hurricane Greta in 1956 didn't become a hurricane until after passing over islands around the Caribbean and stayed over the open Atlantic when it was a hurricane.

Hurricane number 10 in 1932 crossed Cuba and the Bahamas as a Category 4 storm. This storm killed between 2,500 and 3,107 people.
Hurricane number 6 in 1912 was a Category 3 and 4 storm in the central Caribbean Sea and hit Jamaica as a Category 4 storm, weakened to a Category 2 before hitting the Cayman Islands and then a Category 1 before crossing Cuba and the Bahamas. About 200 deaths were reported in Jamaica.

i believe these are all november
Quoting Drakoen:


I see a motion the the NW. Convection is expanding westward but the circulation center is going poleward. I still think it will go inland somewhat but not to the extent of the HWRF and GFDL models.


We'll see about the actual movement on this second pass by the HH.
An eye does not have to be visible for a system to have an eye.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Let's see--from the Texas Hurricane History site:

November 1527: There is record of a hurricane destroying a merchant fleet on Galveston Island. Up to 200 lives were taken by the storm. This is the first record known of a hurricane along the Texas coastline and also one of the most unusual...it struck during the month of November; only one other hurricane has ever struck during November (1839).

And the 1839 hurricane:
November 5th, 1839: Hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the season.
643. jipmg
Quoting StormChaser81:


Im pretty sure it has an eye, but is covered by cirrus clouds.


well if it does, then its possible it could hit hurricane status before and if it hits land..
Nw thru the Loop..no eye here neither.

TD-11 Floater - JSL Color Infrared Java Loop

Quoting StormW:


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential


Thank you.
Ah, but the panhandle in still Florida. Thanks Hydrus. Do you know if any other than 1985 ever hit the region. I truly can't recall. I have look all the way back to the 1600's and can not find any. GROTHAR---- That it is....lol..I will keep looking for any November landfalls west of FL...In your research, see if there were ever two named storms in the Gulf simultaneously.
And another November hurricane in Texas in 1839:

November 5th, 1839: Hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the season.

The link: Link

But they are still extremely rare.

Atmoaggie, thanks for the link--I was able to find the Texas storms linking from that site :)
30nm wide eye is pretty small. This storm's small size can help it strengthen quick in good conditions.
Eye isn't visible on any visible's yet, but from what the Hurricane Hunters indicated, its forming one and its open to the SE.
No visible eye doesn't mean all that much--Opal (1995) had a cirrus covered eye at peak strength--and the night that Wilma bombed out, I couldn't see the eye in the IR pictures either. --just a couple dark pixels, because the eye was so small.
TD-11 Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Java Loop

TFP's now available,click the box.

Closing in on the coast overall,convective Up-Pulse from earlier now noted to be waning,by 50%
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
And another November hurricane in Texas in 1839:

November 5th, 1839: Hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the season.

The link: Link

But they are still extremely rare.

Atmoaggie, thanks for the link--I was able to find the Texas storms linking from that site :)

No prob.
Found another from 1590, though not sure the source.

http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2009/09/today_in_texas_history_first_t_1.html

"In November 1590, a hurricane in the Gulf killed thousands aboard ships."
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 20:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°57'N 82°37'W (11.95N 82.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (472 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 670m (2,198ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 775m (2,543ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:45:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:54:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
30 nm mile eye is pretty big, actually.
998mb
55mph
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Eye isn't visible on any visible's yet, but from what the Hurricane Hunters indicated, its forming one and its open to the SE.


Yep - they are the best eyes we have.
Isn't it usually the norm when rapid intensification occurs for a storm to move more westerly and the slower it intensifies, the more northerly in direction?
Quoting atmoaggie:

And the 1839 hurricane:
November 5th, 1839: Hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the season.
Good research Atmo...
Quoting Seastep:
998mb
55mph


NHC doesn't use 55mph.
Quoting ElConando:


NHC doesn't use 55mph.
???
Quoting Kmanwoodie:
Isn't it usually the norm when rapid intensification occurs for a storm to move more westerly and the slower it intensifies, the more northerly in direction?


Other way around.
There is "NO" RI occurring,,Lord have Mercy,..LOL
Quoting hydrus:
???


I forgot the reason why perhaps one of our bloggers can enlighten us.
Jeanne of 1980...

November 7 - 16, peaked at Cat 2, never made landfall around the Gulf as a tropical entity:

Pretty decent wind reading of 60.9MPH
Quoting ElConando:


NHC doesn't use 55mph.


Sure they do:



Also,if TD-11 continues on present track,,the CoC will come onshore in 12-18 hours.
THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD NICARAGUA....
Quoting Patrap:
There is "NO" RI occurring,,Lord have Mercy,..LOL


Its intensifying moderately at best. In order for this to be rapid intensification it would need to be a Hurricane by 10pm.
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.0N 82.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

Quoting hydrus:
Good research Atmo...

And SSIGG, too...
let's say hypothetically it DID make it to the northern gulf coast ... from what I see water temps are very underwhelming ... 66F at dauphin island for instance.
Quoting StormW:
634. hurricanejunky 3:45 PM EST on November 04, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


A drop of one millibar per hour is considered “rapid intensification.” I believe this to be true. Could be wrong, often am.


Thanks Grothar. That's what I was thinking of.


No...a drop of 3mb per hour is considered a rapid drop in barometric pressure


Hail to the chief! Thanks for the amendment, Storm!
60 mph, 996 mb Tropical Storm Ida.

Dang this was an invest this morning..
667. WxLogic

Surface is 55mph. Flight level doesn't mean much.
Wow.

60mph
996mb
Atta boys...


Recorded
Tropical storms and hurricanes by month since 1851
(North Atlantic region)

Month Total Average
January%u2013April 5 <0.1

May 19 0.1

June 80 0.5

July 102 0.6

August 34 2.2

September 466 3.0

October 281 1.8
November 61 0.4
December 11 0.1


Total 1,372 8.7
Source: NOAA additions for 2007
See also: Tropical cyclogenesis

Climatology does serve to characterize the general properties of an average season and can be used as one of many other tools for making forecasts. Most storms form in warm waters several hundred miles north of the equator near the Intertropical convergence zone from tropical waves. The Coriolis force is usually too weak to initiate sufficient rotation near the equator.[9] Storms frequently form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as far east as the Cape Verde Islands, the origin of strong and long-lasting Cape Verde-type hurricanes. Systems may also strengthen over the Gulf Stream off the coast of the eastern United States, wherever water temperatures exceed 26.5 C (79.7 F).[9]

Although most storms are found within tropical latitudes, occasionally storms will form further north and east from disturbances other than tropical waves such as cold fronts and upper-level lows. There is a strong correlation between Atlantic hurricane activity in the tropics and the presence of an El Nio or La Nia in the Pacific Ocean. El Nio events increase the wind shear over the Atlantic, producing a less-favorable environment for formation and decreasing tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Nia causes an increase in activity due to a decrease in wind shear. [10]
[edit] June
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow.

60mph
996mb


Very nice
HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
30 nm mile eye is pretty big, actually.

Um, yeah, that is bout the size of, um, (whispering) Katrina's (2005) eye...

Scared to say that loudly. No, I am not saying a thing about this system except that the eye diameter is about that...
atmoaggie, Jeanne did have an interesting impact at Key West--23.28" fell in 24 hours on November 11-12, with 13.58" falling in a 6 hour period.

Link
417

URNT12 KNHC 042013

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009

A. 04/19:50:50Z

B. 11 deg 57 min N

082 deg 37 min W

C. 925 mb 670 m

D. 39 kt

E. 320 deg 6 nm

F. 067 deg 48 kt

G. 325 deg 16 nm

H. EXTRAP 998 mb

I. 19 C / 775 m

J. 23 C / 764 m

K. 23 C / NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C30

N. 12345 / 09

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 19:45:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 19:54:30Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

;
ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA.
THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND. IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.


Quoting SouthALWX:
let's say hypothetically it DID make it to the northern gulf coast ... from what I see water temps are very underwhelming ... 66F at dauphin island for instance.

If it has any forward speed about it at that time, that will not mean a lot...still plenty warm off the shelf.
I agree with the NHC track for the time being.
Quoting atmoaggie:

And SSIGG, too...
and siggy too...
IMO Ida will fizzel over land. The NHC offers that as one potential solution.
.
692. xcool
wow oh close to 75 ow
Hurricane Jeanne 1980 rainfall map:

could is better than likely to dissipate
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
atmoaggie, Jeanne did have an interesting impact at Key West--23.28" fell in 24 hours on November 12-13, with 13.58" falling in a 6 hour period.

Link

Wow, 23" + in Key West, none in Tampa and less than 2 in Miami. Funky.
Not that uncommon, but still funky.
Quoting Seastep:
It's 998mb and 55mph.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 20:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:50:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 11°57'N 82°37'W (11.95N 82.6167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 294 miles (472 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 670m (2,198ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (325°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 775m (2,543ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 19:45:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:54:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb


The NHC advisory is 60mph and 996mb
So it is moving still WNW?
596

WHXX01 KWBC 042021

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2021 UTC WED NOV 4 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AL112009) 20091104 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091104 1800 091105 0600 091105 1800 091106 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.8N 82.3W 12.4N 83.8W 12.9N 85.2W 13.5N 86.5W

BAMD 11.8N 82.3W 12.6N 83.5W 13.6N 84.6W 15.0N 85.6W

BAMM 11.8N 82.3W 12.5N 83.7W 13.2N 85.1W 14.0N 86.5W

LBAR 11.8N 82.3W 12.7N 83.1W 13.9N 84.1W 15.1N 85.1W

SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 59KTS 60KTS

DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 59KTS 39KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091106 1800 091107 1800 091108 1800 091109 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 87.7W 15.8N 89.3W 16.5N 90.6W 16.9N 92.0W

BAMD 16.7N 86.6W 21.2N 88.4W 25.9N 90.4W 33.3N 91.4W

BAMM 14.9N 87.8W 16.9N 89.8W 18.3N 91.3W 19.5N 92.9W

LBAR 16.4N 85.8W 18.2N 85.8W 19.0N 85.3W 19.2N 85.4W

SHIP 59KTS 59KTS 60KTS 60KTS

DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 30KTS 30KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 82.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 316DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 81.1W

WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM



$$

NNNN


Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The NHC advisory is 60mph and 996mb


Because NHC doesn't use 55mph :P.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The NHC advisory is 60mph and 996mb

he removed it lol
Quoting ElConando:


Because NHC doesn't use 55mph :P.


Yep.
77F @ 42039 .. not great but you could be right. most favorable for intensity I suppose would be gentle northward pull by an approaching trough just as it moves over the loop current. Outside of that, I find it hard to believe we'll see anything over a minimal hurricane affectiong the northern gomex ... the peninsula of FL would be a different story from what I see.
edit 81F @ 42003 further supports a peninsula threat versus a northern gomex threat. However again if the loop current scenario plays out it may not affect it by more than a category.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The NHC advisory is 60mph and 996mb


Didn't know they came out with one.

I did just see the 996 on recon. Didn't see any 60mph surface winds, though. Oh well.

Thanks for the info. Wasn't looking there.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep.


why not?
Quoting Seastep:


Didn't know they came out with one.

I did just see the 996 on recon. Didn't see any 60mph surface winds, though. Oh well.

Thanks for the info. Wasn't looking there.


The NHC doesn't use 55mph and winds were just over 55mph so they rounded to 60mph. If winds were 54.3 mph they would have put it at 50mph.
Key West weather on November 11, 1980--the day 22.75" of rain fell:

Link
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


why not?



Im not sure.

When the winds come in at 50 knots they convert it to 60mph.
Quoting btwntx08:

he removed it lol


I read it wrong. The 55 on that one was flight level.

Here is 996mb

Here is 55mph
Quoting ElConando:


The NHC doesn't use 55mph and winds were just over 55mph so they rounded to 60mph. If winds were 54.3 mph they would have put it at 50mph.


Got it.
Some of the visibilites during the heavy rain at Key West on November 11, 1980 were down to 0.2 miles--amazing!
I remember now, there is an issue with converting knots into mph with 55mph. For some reason it does not work well.
Quoting SouthALWX:
77F @ 42039 .. not great but you could be right. most favorable for intensity I suppose would be gentle northward pull by an approaching trough just as it moves over the loop current. Outside of that, I find it hard to believe we'll see anything over a minimal hurricane affectiong the northern gomex ... the peninsula of FL would be a different story from what I see.

In this plot, if it is white or red, it is capable of supporting a cat 3.



Now this does not include the effects of shear or dry air, both common and frequent in N GoM coast in November.

Cannot say, though, that a major is out of the question due to water temps...especially one that is on the move. Admittedly, though this concern prolly should be held back for about 5 days...
Any sign of a forward motion other than WNW?
Good Afternoon!

Big surprise Ida is.
Strange.. thanks for answering tho :)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Strange.. thanks for answering tho :)


NM
719. P451
Ida poised to spend a good 60+ hours over land. Not much to do but wait and watch what unfolds over the next ~3 days with this one.
Looking at center fix of recon it seemed to drop pressure and move NNW
New vortex message in and I guess we have a closed eye

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
LOL. Misread it again!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
New vortex message in and I guess we have a closed eye

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Closed eye that has shrunk
724. P451
Developing quite rapidly it would seem.

Friction due to proximity to land the culprit?
Quoting Drakoen:


Closed eye that has shrunk


Things may become interesting later tonight.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009

TCPOD NUMBER.....09-160



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 05/1800Z

B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE

C. 05/1230Z

D. 12.7N 83.2W

E. 05/1630Z TO 05/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71

A. 06/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0311A CYCLONE

C. 06/0030Z

D. 13.0N 83.4W

E. 06/0430Z TO 06/0830Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES

IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.

JWP
724. time to get all wee-wee'd up? LOL ;0
45 knots = 51.75 mph. Its rounded down to 50 mph. 50 knots = 57.5 mph. That's rounded up to 60 mph. NHC uses knots and converts into mph. Hence why you never see 55 mph.
Quoting Drakoen:


Closed eye that has shrunk

Dat's a little closer to normal...or maybe a little big still for that latitude.
Anyone *seen*/heard from Weather 456?
Latest vortex NOW does report the 996 and 55mph. LOL.

roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 21:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 20:47:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°00'N 82°38'W (12.N 82.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 297 miles (478 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 653m (2,142ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 137° at 53kts (From the SE at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (63°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 759m (2,490ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:44:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Quoting atmoaggie:

In this plot, if it is white or red, it is capable of supporting a cat 3.



Now this does not include the effects of shear or dry air, both common and frequent in N GoM coast in November.

Cannot say, though, that a major is out of the question due to water temps...especially one that is on the move. Admittedly, though this concern prolly should be held back for about 5 days...

oh it was purely a hypothetical. And yes I see what you are saying but I still think SSTs are less than spectacular and will probablt feature a weakening towards landfall if it were to happen.. BTW if you're reading this and don't understand "hypothetical" what I mean is ignore me i'm an idiot <3
869

URNT12 KNHC 042100

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009

A. 04/20:47:40Z

B. 12 deg 00 min N

082 deg 38 min W

C. 925 mb 653 m

D. 48 kt

E. 064 deg 9 nm

F. 137 deg 53 kt

G. 063 deg 10 nm

H. EXTRAP 996 mb

I. 19 C / 759 m

J. 23 C / 765 m

K. 22 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C20

N. 12345 / 09

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 15

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
Quoting msinformed:
Anyone *seen*/heard from Weather 456?


I think hes working.
Well the eye has shrunk about 10 miles and the pressure has dropped 2mbs since the last pass. Seems to be tightening up and strengthening.
736. P451



Quoting ElConando:


Its intensifying moderately at best. In order for this to be rapid intensification it would need to be a Hurricane by 10pm.


Care to hedge a bet on that one now, lol, Eye is closed.
Quoting cybergrump:
Looking at center fix of recon it seemed to drop pressure and move NNW


Indeed... starting to make that turn, but would like to see another center fix before going with a NNW to N drift or movement.
They really think this will survive nicaragua? um, no. First of all there's insane mountains there as far as i recall. Second, the friction of wind with land will keep it ashore since there's so little steering current otherwise. Third, as soon as this hits land 96E will take all the energy and so it will die.
I'm no meteoroligist its just common sense here, something NHC obviously has nothing of. They are just modelcasting rather than looking at facts. And I'm out.
scariest part of the most recent vortex..
fully closed eye shrinking. A shrinking eye means a quickly strenghtening system.

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
Good afternoon folkes,

whats change since this morning
Oh I see we have Ida
Quoting P451:





Seems to be moving NNW atm, guess that NHC is being conservative and their thinking is that it is a wobble.
745. jipmg
If it moves NNW..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I think hes working.


Thanks ....... Real Life sux!
BIG shift in direction.

I think I see an eye, ragged, but it's there.. Interesting.

impressive stats for the time of year, not all too surprising tho as there is some precedent.
Quoting Weather456:
Oh I see we have Ida


Afternoon 456!

right on cue! hope you had an uneventful day because you will have quite an eventful evening!
Quoting SouthALWX:

oh it was purely a hypothetical. And yes I see what you are saying but I still think SSTs are less than spectacular and will probablt feature a weakening towards landfall if it were to happen.. BTW if you're reading this and don't understand "hypothetical" what I mean is ignore me i'm an idiot <3

Okay, is that supposed to be a smiley or a depiction of , ummm, welll...nevermind.

One can make bad evil depictions of certain anatomical features with a "3" and a ">"

You are not an ID10T.
740. actually, land effects are less about friction and more about the change in energy input due to reduced evaporation/condensation over land when compared to water.
Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon folkes,

whats change since this morning


Hi 456...
Quoting Weather456:
Oh I see we have Ida


60mph / 996mb / Eye Now Closed An Shrinking.
read post 744.
757. P451
AVN Loop + Trop Fcst Points

Ida exploded in organization since I last saw it as Td 11
Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon folkes,

whats change since this morning

Nothin. Nothin at all, except the sun moved to the right a bit.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... starting to make that turn, but would like to see another center fix before going with a NNW to N drift or movement.


Agree
So, Idas future depends on how long it stays on land, more than 24hrs. Nicaragua might dissipated but if it stays close to the coast or over water in a track farther east, it can become a cat 2, hurricane at least.
60 mph

Wait did not the GFDL predicted this

WOW lol


011L/TS/I
MARK
11.5N/82.3W
Maybe a hurricane after Dmax?
Michelle 2001... hmmm...

Quoting Weather456:
60 mph

Wait did not the GFDL predicted this

WOW lol


Wow the GFDL was right.

If the 3rd Center fix verifies with a NNW to N heading then an UKM solution might not be out of the question. I will go towards Ida hugging the coast line if the N component validates.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... starting to make that turn, but would like to see another center fix before going with a NNW to N drift or movement.


Yes it may be a wobble.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Maybe a hurricane after Dmax?


Or dinner time maybe?
Quoting hydrus:
Ah, but the panhandle in still Florida. Thanks Hydrus. Do you know if any other than 1985 ever hit the region. I truly can't recall. I have look all the way back to the 1600's and can not find any.
GROTHAR---- That it is....lol..I will keep looking for any November landfalls west of FL...In your research, see if there were ever two named storms in the Gulf simultaneously.


I looked for two storm in the Gulf at the same time and could not find any. See, I'll do my part. Thanks Hydrus, didn't mean to put you out, but it has been a strange season.
Quoting winter123:
They really think this will survive nicaragua? um, no. First of all there's insane mountains there as far as i recall. Second, the friction of wind with land will keep it ashore since there's so little steering current otherwise. Third, as soon as this hits land 96E will take all the energy and so it will die.
I'm no meteoroligist its just common sense here, something NHC obviously has nothing of. They are just modelcasting rather than looking at facts. And I'm out.

Good way to get on a certain list, and not Santa's....

And the mountains there are not substantial in the west and non-existent in the east.
I would love to see another recon pass to confirm the NNW heading.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Or dinner time maybe?

That depends on what it eats...


I see the hint of a eye.
BIG shift in what direction?? I'm confused..
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Or dinner time maybe?


Ya never know!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow the GFDL was right.



I am speechless and the model was laughed at...
Quoting reedzone:
BIG shift in what direction?? I'm confused..


Recon shows it moving NNW.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow the GFDL was right.



Yea.
11L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN 18:00UTC 04November2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 11:44:02 N
Longitude : 82:08:02 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 908.2 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 100.8 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 4.6 m/s
Direction : 259.4 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

Quoting reedzone:
BIG shift in what direction?? I'm confused..


I don't see much shift, it looks to be moving NW to NNW. Agree?
776. hurricanejunky 1:26 PM PST on November 04, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Or dinner time maybe?


Ya never know!


still off topic....tsk tsk tsk....
The Western Caribbean was hungry, sheeesh
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Maybe a hurricane after Dmax?


HJ,

it should definitely be interesting to watch what it does in the next 12 hrs our so
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 NOV 2009 Time : 201500 UTC
Lat : 11:57:11 N Lon : 82:36:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.7 3.0 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -59.7C Cloud Region Temp : -58.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.58 ARC in BLACK

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Quoting NRAamy:
776. hurricanejunky 1:26 PM PST on November 04, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Or dinner time maybe?


Ya never know!


still off topic....tsk tsk tsk....


It was in response to a response about the storm. Quit trying to stir trouble. Jeez...
I will go with the NHC track but would not leave a NNW turn out of the question. Key facts in intensity obviously is land and how long it stays over. Worst case scenario would be it skirted the landmass. Best case scenario would be in moves inland too far.
Quoting Weather456:


I am speechless and the model was laughed at...


Didn't the model call for this much strengthening in 6 hours yesterday afternoon?
Quoting Weather456:
I will go with the NHC track but would not leave a NNW turn out of the question. Key facts in intensity obviously is land and how long it stays over. Worst case scenario would be it skirted the landmass. Best case scenario would be in moves inland too far.


Agreed. Right now I am with the NHC track and the eastern guidance.
Another bad initialization on GFS. Has the system as a 1010MB still...

791. DrNo
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Okay, Ida, it is fine if you want to not develop all that well and follow the BAMS route rather than the BAMD route...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Recon shows it moving NNW.


Wait.. wouldn't that give Ida more time to... umm.. oh boy :/

Tonights gonna be an interesting night, Hurricane Ida anyone? Maybe rapid intensification is occuring while the Hurricane Hunters are investigating after all. Went from a 35 mph. TD, maybe a 40 mph. TS to a whopping 60 mph. Tropical Storm with a developing eye. That says something right there..
Looking at Ida's steering currents is like finding a pin in a haystack. Latest currents mostly rely on 96E and where it moves to. At this moment in time Ida will continue to move WNW. As it leaves the area of land to its' northwest it should continue N. Intrests in (except Nicaragua and surronding areas) the Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, Florida, and Gulf coast should monitor Ida.
Quoting tornadodude:


HJ,

it should definitely be interesting to watch what it does in the next 12 hrs our so


No doubt. It's interesting we're finally seeing a storm that has favorable conditions.
This one has been pretty aggressive.
I think land will knock it back down so I don't know that it's necessarily a big deal. I'm wishcasting a weak storm passing over us for the rain event!
Quoting tornadofan:


Didn't the model call for this much strengthening in 6 hours yesterday afternoon?


Yep it even had eye.
Quoting DrNo:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Like this post? Ok, done.
Quoting Weather456:
I will go with the NHC track but would not leave a NNW turn out of the question. Key facts in intensity obviously is land and how long it stays over. Worst case scenario would be it skirted the landmass. Best case scenario would be in moves inland too far.


well people in Nicaragua would disagree lol, but for everyone else yea your right
Quoting hurricanejunky:


It was in response to a response about the storm. Quit trying to stir trouble. Jeez...


Just poof her, I did and everything is better now.lol

Quoting hurricanejunky:


No doubt. It's interesting we're finally seeing a storm that has favorable conditions.
This one has been pretty aggressive.
I think land will knock it back down so I don't know that it's necessarily a big deal. I'm wishcasting a weak storm passing over us for the rain event!


yeah, you guys could use the rain for sure
Quoting tornadofan:


Didn't the model call for this much strengthening in 6 hours yesterday afternoon?


It called for a tropical storm in 6 hrs, but it also called for strong tropical storm in 24 hrs and that was valid 18Z today. That is the part we were pointing to.
has tacoman given us his opinion on the TD this afternoon? I need to add it to my analysis.
805. xcool
GFDL NAIL IT 100% ,I SEEING A 75H COMEING SOON IMO.!!! opps cap lock
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep it even had eye.


Yeah - but was 18 hours late.
Quoting StormW:
634. hurricanejunky 3:45 PM EST on November 04, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


A drop of one millibar per hour is considered “rapid intensification.” I believe this to be true. Could be wrong, often am.


Thanks Grothar. That's what I was thinking of.


No...a drop of 3mb per hour is considered a rapid drop in barometric pressure


Hey Storm, thought you were by buddy. Go ahead embarrass me on the blog. I was trying to help hurricanjunky. This is what I found on the NHC Glossary of terms. I know it is not really important, but is there a difference between "rapid intensification" and rapid deepening"?

Glossary of NHC Terms:
Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well people in Nicaragua would disagree lol, but for everyone else yea your right


well yea, lol, something is given and taken.
45 kts converts to 52 mph, so it rounds to 50 mph. 50 kts converts to 58 mph, so it rounds up to 60 mph. 55 mph is skipped. The same thing happens to 95 mph--80 kts converts to 92 mph, and is rounded to 90 mph--85 kts converts to 98 mph and rounds to 100 mph.

30 kts - 34.52 mph, rounds to 35 mph
35 kts - 40.28 mph, rounds to 40 mph
40 kts - 46.03 mph, rounds to 45 mph
45 kts - 51.79 mph, rounds to 50 mph
50 kts - 57.54 mph, rounds to 60 mph (55 mph skipped)
55 kts - 63.29 mph, rounds to 65 mph
60 kts - 69.05 mph, rounds to 70 mph
65 kts - 74.80 mph, rounds to 75 mph
70 kts - 80.55 mph, rounds to 80 mph
75 kts - 86.31 mph, rounds to 85 mph
80 kts - 92.06 mph, rounds to 90 mph
85 kts - 97.82 mph, rounds to 100 mph (95 mph skipped)
90 kts - 103.57 mph, rounds to 105 mph
95 kts - 109.32 mph, rounds to 110 mph
100 kts - 115.08 mph, rounds to 115 mph
105 kts - 120.83 mph, rounds to 120 mph
110 kts - 126.58 mph, rounds to 125 mph
115 kts - 132.34 mph, rounds to 130 mph (for some reason, they round up to 135 mph, and skip 130 mph)
120 kts - 138.09 mph, rounds to 140 mph
125 kts - 143.85 mph, rounds to 145 mph
130 kts - 149.60 mph, rounds to 150 mph
135 kts - 155.36 mph, rounds to 155 mph
140 kts - 161.11 mph, rounds to 160 mph
145 kts - 166.86 mph, rounds to 165 mph
150 kts - 172.62 mph, rounds to 175 mph (I can't remember if 170 mph is skipped or not)
155 kts - 178.37 mph, rounds to 180 mph
160 kts - 184.12 mph, rounds to 185 mph
Ida looking well organized. Could be our next hurricane (In the next 6 hours). After Ida goes into the western Caribbean/GOM it should intensify rapidly and on from there.
NEW BLOG
812. xcool


It kinda did what it did over minimal heat content

Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay, Ida, it is fine if you want to not develop all that well and follow the BAMS route rather than the BAMD route...



I'll say ... considering I just recently arrived to spend some "quiet-time" at my camp on Belle River in Pierre Part, LA.

On the other hand, puh-leeze don't let it go anywhere near Galveston, which is 20 miles south of my residence!!!!
I think I am going to ignore the 18 Z models completely...they will have a bad, non-representative initialization...
The 0 Z models will be the first cycle with an actual system initialized, thanks to the recon.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
45 kts converts to 52 mph, so it rounds to 50 mph. 50 kts converts to 58 mph, so it rounds up to 60 mph. 55 mph is skipped. The same thing happens to 95 mph--80 kts converts to 92 mph, and is rounded to 90 mph--85 kts converts to 98 mph and rounds to 100 mph.

30 kts - 34.52 mph, rounds to 35 mph
35 kts - 40.28 mph, rounds to 40 mph
40 kts - 46.03 mph, rounds to 45 mph
45 kts - 51.79 mph, rounds to 50 mph
50 kts - 57.54 mph, rounds to 60 mph (55 mph skipped)
55 kts - 63.29 mph, rounds to 65 mph
60 kts - 69.05 mph, rounds to 70 mph
65 kts - 74.80 mph, rounds to 75 mph
70 kts - 80.55 mph, rounds to 80 mph
75 kts - 86.31 mph, rounds to 85 mph
80 kts - 92.06 mph, rounds to 90 mph
85 kts - 97.82 mph, rounds to 100 mph (95 mph skipped)
90 kts - 103.57 mph, rounds to 105 mph
95 kts - 109.32 mph, rounds to 110 mph
100 kts - 115.08 mph, rounds to 115 mph
105 kts - 120.83 mph, rounds to 120 mph
110 kts - 126.58 mph, rounds to 125 mph
115 kts - 132.34 mph, rounds to 130 mph (for some reason, they round it up to 135 mph, and skip 130 mph)
120 kts - 138.09 mph, rounds to 140 mph
125 kts - 143.85 mph, rounds to 145 mph
130 kts - 149.60 mph, rounds to 150 mph
135 kts - 155.36 mph, rounds to 155 mph
140 kts - 161.11 mph, rounds to 160 mph
145 kts - 166.86 mph, rounds to 165 mph
150 kts - 172.62 mph, rounds to 175 mph (I can't remember if 170 mph is skipped or not)
155 kts - 178.37 mph, rounds to 180 mph
160 kts - 184.12 mph, rounds to 185 mph

I believe the reason that 115 kts is rounded to 135 mph is because the 132.34 mph, while closer to 130 than to 135, lies above the threshold for a Category 4 hurricane, while 130 mph does not.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, you guys could use the rain for sure


We're running a 20 inch rain deficit, I'd like a nice 6-8 inches worth of rain!
819. xcool
i seeing eye ??
Quoting NRAamy:
has tacoman given us his opinion on the TD this afternoon? I need to add it to my analysis.
Yes, and a few other things.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I believe the reason that 115 kts is rounded to 135 mph is because the 132.34 mph, while closer to 130 than to 135, lies above the threshold for a Category 4 hurricane, while 130 mph does not.


good post and you are right that is why they round it up to 135mph,

also 170mph is not skipped
Quoting NRAamy:
has tacoman given us his opinion on the TD this afternoon? I need to add it to my analysis.


Last analysis given by tacoman said that it wouldn't be a TS for the next 24 hours.
824. xcool
825. jipmg
mhm interesting, wasn't GFDL showing a movement to the NNW yesterday after a WNW movement, and upping it into a strong TS around 8PM?
new blog
Ida is about to make landfall soon and if the forecast track holds with the slow drifting over Nicaragua and Honduras it's most likely toast. It needs to stay on a NNW coarse to have a chance being anything substantial to talk about for the GOM. If the LLC had been located further to the east i would be more worried about this system if i lived in the GOM. I am very surprised this storm managed to get going like it did.
Hey wats up everyone, seems the action is starting to heat up in this blog.
Lots of warm water ahead of Ida in fact because of its slow movement and TCHP it could get pretty strong for a Nov. system. Lets wait, watch, and see how everything plays out.