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Tropical Depression Eight: the one to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on September 13, 2006

Hurricane Florence is now a powerful extratropical storm passing along the south coast of Newfoundland. The storm still has winds of hurricane force, as evidenced by the sustained winds of 76 mph gusting to 93 mph reported at Newfoundland's Segona Island this afternoon. The QuikSCAT imagery from this morning shows an impressive storm with 55+ mph winds affecting a large swath of ocean near Canada.

Gordon is headed out to sea.
Hurricane Gordon became the third hurricane of the season last night, and is expected to remain a Category 1 hurricane for another two or three days until increasing wind shear and cooler waters weaken the storm. Gordon is headed northward out to sea, and is not a threat to land. I'm not going to talk about this storm very much.


Figure 1. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis from 9Z (5am EDT) Sep 13, 2006. The bright orange layers show where very air air laden with Saharan dust lies. Note that TD 8 has to contend with some dry air from the SAL to its north and west, while Hurricane Gordon is in a moister, more favorable environment.

The one to watch: Tropical Depression Eight
The storm we really need to focus on is Tropical Depression Eight. This depression has the potential to grow into a major hurricane that may affect Bermuda or the U.S. East Coast next week. TD 8 is currently having difficulty organizing, due to the presence of dry air to its north and west (Figure 1), and about 20 knots of wind shear. TD 8 also has a very large circulation, and as we saw with Florence, it can take such storm a very long time to organize.

The computer track models all agree on a general westward motion the next five days, taking TD 8 into the middle Atlantic. It appears at this time that the storm will gain enough latitude to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, since a trough of low pressure should pull the storm on a more west-northwesterly track 3-5 days from now. After that, the future track is uncertain. The long-range GFS model shows a more westerly track and an eventual threat to Bermuda late next week, and it is not out of the question that TD 8 could make it all the way to the U.S. However, the odds are against this. History shows that the large majority of tropical depressions that form in this part of the Atlantic end up recurving harmlessly out to sea. With the active jet stream pattern we've seen since early June expected to continue for at least the next two weeks, I expect TD 8 will recurve before reaching the U.S.

Research project studying TD 8
A new research tool is being used to study Tropical Depression Eight. The driftsonde is being used for the first time to aid in hurricane research. The driftsonde is a special high-altitude balloon that floats in the stratosphere at 70,000 feet and can launch special mini-dropsondes that float down on parachutes and radio back information on winds, pressure, temperature, and humidity as they fall to earth. The driftsonde will typically launch two mini-dropsondes per day, but can launch up to one per hour if special high density data is desired. The data from these mini-dropsondes (in theory) should be making it into the global computer models that forecast hurricanes, providing valuable data over data-void ocean regions that should help provide better forecasts. The tricky part is launching the driftsondes at the right time so that they drift from Africa to the Caribbean over a developing tropical cyclone. At least seven driftsondes have been launched since August 28. The research is being done as part of an international field project to help learn about the African Monsoon and hurricane formation called the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA). Here's a sample of the status of some of the driftsonde missions, taken from the AMMA webpage. Note that the acronym AEW refers to "African Easterly Wave", meaning the tropical waves I talk so much about.

UPDATE:

MISSION #4 IS TERMINATED: Despite the tilted gondola, gondola #4 allowed the sampling of extra-tropical dry intrusions off the coast, west of Dakar and yesterday we dropped 4 sondes on the southeastern edge of tropical depression #7 (see attached document).

MISSION #5 IS AIRBORNE: Driftsonde #5 is flying over a streak of very moist air that we sample every three hours. It is now heading south and is located at about 11N and 41W.

MISSION #6 IS AIRBORNE: After sampling a weak trough of an AEW (1 sonde/3hrs), driftsonde #6 is heading to a more active area immediately off the coast where storm formation is predicted by different models (sampling strategy: 1 sonde/3hrs in the area). It should be over Dakar tomorrow and could be considered as a possible contributor to SOP-3.

MISSION #7 SHOULD BE LAUNCHED TODAY IF POSSIBLE: This driftsonde should be launched in the eastern part of a trough associated with an AEW (no possible launch the last two days due to strong wind and showers). Coordination with SOP-3 is possible with this driftsonde which should be over Dakar the day when SOP-3 begins (in 3 days).


Carolinas
Several of the computers models are forecasting that a tropical low pressure system might form off the Carolina coast on Friday, then scoot quickly northeastward out to sea. We'll have to watch the cold front expected to push off the East Coast Thursday to see if it spawns such a storm.

I'll be back with an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Surf's Up I
Surf's Up I
Florence isn't anywhere near us, but she sure has kicked up our surf. This and the next two shots caught some surfers off Ruggles Ave., the good spot for the really good surfers. And I got soaked taking the pictures - the waves were hitting the sea wall so hard they were coming up on the Cliff Walk itself, and while I didn't mind getting myself wet, I had to keep drying the camera off.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Guys if you look at the header of the new run it now says TS Eight...TS @ 11PM is likely.
KJ, thanks for the input. So we don't have the same conditions than as Isabelle in the surrounding area? I'm a weather addict but know nothing about weather. I worry when I see things moving west, although realizing it's still along way away. I read this board for hours at a time because most are very intelligent and can forecast pretty well.
whats the movement for td8 or ts h-- hurricane 23 thanks
1005. Gatorx
Good evening...did you guys turn the letters pink in honor of us girls? I'm surprised the TD8 is not a TS yet.
hey guys just checking in wondering whats everyone's take on the models turning "Helene" back to the west after the northward turn
Here are some model runs on TD8:

Notice that the NOGAPS pushes TD8 southwest at the end of the track (keep in mind NOGAPS is one of the most reliable):

Latest NOGAP Model Runs

Here is the GFS model runs. Although they don't move TD8 southwest, they do push it W/WNW at the end of the track (GFS is probably 2nd most reliable, possibly 1st):

Latest GFS Models Runs

These are just two of the model runs that are pushing TD8 westward, and build the ridge back in north of the cyclone at the end of the forecast. This trend has continued since last night, and the NHC has honored that consistency by updating their forecast to a leftward turn. This definitely knocks chances of a being a fish storm down a little, not a lot, but enough to raise concern in the Caribbean and long the East Coast.
The x-trap is now pointing @ south florida which doesn't mean much because i dont think with the huge TROF that set to come of the Eastcoast in the coming days TD8 will never get passed that.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.1mb/115.0kt



Guys we will have a TS at 11pm look at the header of the models i posted.atleast it a good chance.

nop its now a cat 4 going on cat 5
has the xtrap ever been right ?
23 - XTRAP draws a straight line that shows where the cyclone would move it continued on the same track throughout the forecast period. It's not really a model that takes in environmental conditions, that's why you'll always notice it normally away from the others.
Navy has Gordon at 115MPH
so hurricane23 im guessing we do have Helene then
HELENE @ 11PM!!!
kylejourdan2006, look not at the track but the maps. At that stage a HUGE trough is about to come of the East coast. Also Nogap unrealistically leaves Gordon a little behind and this seems unlikely. But even with this, it makes no difference, EXCEPT perhaps for bermuda.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:15 PM PDT on September 13, 2006.

Guys we will have a TS at 11pm look at the header of the models i posted.atleast it a good chance.


LOL hurricane your are so right the navy site this update TD 8 is now a TS the navy site update the winds to 35kt and a 1005mbs heh you call it good job
WPBHurricane05, IMHO thats too conservative,125 seems realistic, and that just of its 110 starting. If I was estimating its winds just of a quick glnce 130 seems argueable.
1022. Gatorx
swFLbo-
your probably correct. maybe they are waiting on flight data?
yup TS Helene
Navy has TD8 at 35kts (40mph tropical storm), pressure down to 1005mb. This is what will be shown at 11pm by the NHC, I would be willing to put some good money on it.
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 9:15 PM EDT on September 13, 2006.

23 - XTRAP draws a straight line that shows where the cyclone would move it continued on the same track throughout the forecast period. It's not really a model that takes in environmental conditions, that's why you'll always notice it normally away from the others.

I know that...Its a line showing the direction it would take if it stayed on that exact path which is highly unlikely.
1026. Zaphod
Xtrap is ALWAYS right, but only pointing backward! I'll begin to worry when 3 of the 4 global models are much S of 25N at 55W.
Zap
Link to the Navy's Site anyone? Please?
so what you are saying we dont go by the xtrap model am i correct .?
how about the wave coming off behind Helene any chance of development or will Helene just tear it apart
Look at the header of the models i posted above in the blog...It says TD EIGHT.
txweather - That trough is shown in the models, and breaks down the ridge considerably, but there remains a good chunk of ridge north of TD8 at the end of the forecast, and that chunk stretches westward.
1032. Gatorx
TAz or Kyle-

What chance does Gordon have of looping around?
Gatorx, I think no more flights are scheduled for Gordon. this is unfartunate if for no other reason than accurate record keeping.
magicfan1423 - NRL here
magicanfan - Here you go. Click here for the Navy site. Bookmark ONLY this address I've given you, as the other pages only last 10 minutes and will not work if you save to your favorites.
Posted By: Gatorx at 9:21 PM EDT on September 13, 2006.

TAz or Kyle-

What chance does Gordon have of looping around?

No chance at all.
magicfan

here's the link to NavyLink


i would be surprised if we dont have TS Helene at 11pm........
I am cutting my probability of TD8 making landfall in the USA from 5% to 3%.

And Gordon sure looks like the first major hurricane of the year to me.
the XTrap is not a model, its extratropicalation something like that, it shows the direction of the storm
Well, waves, td's, storms, hurricanes ,everything seems to want to move towards the north this season, I think that's good, but some rains are needed always.
Gordon is now looking more symmetrical:

1043. Gatorx
txweather-
Really? wow I guess they think if there is no threat to land..they don't want to waste the money or risk to pilots, etc.
TD8 looks like a tropical storm to me too--but who knows if NHC will upgrade or not.
Posted By: stormybil at 9:21 PM EDT on September 13, 2006.

so what you are saying we dont go by the xtrap model am i correct

XTRAP- is not a model its a line showing you the direction the system would take if it stayed on that exact path which is not likely.

NOTE: Tropical systems never travel on a straight line.

1046. Gatorx
hurricane23-
thank you for your opinion I appreciate it but I would like to hear Kyle and Taz opinions as well.
Gatorx - There's a slight chance of a loop, as steering currents may become weak later on in TD8's (Helene) journey. If the steering currents do become light, you'll notice that the cyclone will slow down VERY slow. The only way a loop would occur then is if Helene can get an anticyclone over her. A decent anticyclone over her and weak steering currents would cause a loop, but my feelings on the chance of that happening are low, although now I am also doubting a recurvature any time soon, as the ridge looks like it will hold in place north of the cyclone enough to push it westbound for at least the next week, but it is still much too early to confirm this, although a lot of the major models have shown this scenario in every run since last night.
Anyone think TS Helene by 11pm????
hurricane23 What do you think are the chances of Miami getting affected by ts helen?
what is the speghitti models showing right now for td8
Gordon has that " buzz saw " look of really strong systems. Expect the winds to be up again @ 11
Gatorx- It's not a simple "Loop" around. It takes a High pressure ridge to get caught between, The eastward movement of the Southern ridge, and then it bumps back. Happened with Jeanne, that was when it was probable. Not here.
StSimon - If anything chances of U.S. landfall should be going up with a forecast now more to the west at the end of the forecast period. NOGAPS is even forecasting southwest.
1054. Gatorx
kylejourdan2006-
What about a loop for Gordon?
I think we have a tropical storm. Look at the computer models for TD 8. The SHIPS initializes it at 40mph.
WeatherfanPR, not in all place(not s. fla.)lol
1057. Patrap
.Good evening..to all.See its busy
1058. Gatorx
thanks for the info magicfan
Gatorx - There's a slight chance of a loop, as steering currents may become weak later on in TD8's (Helene) journey. If the steering currents do become light, you'll notice that the cyclone will slow down VERY slow. The only way a loop would occur then is if Helene can get an anticyclone over her. A decent anticyclone over her and weak steering currents would cause a loop, but my feelings on the chance of that happening are low, although now I am also doubting a recurvature any time soon, as the ridge looks like it will hold in place north of the cyclone enough to push it westbound for at least the next week, but it is still much too early to confirm this, although a lot of the major models have shown this scenario in every run since last night.
1062. Gatorx
Patrap-

Hi Pat---is the she-devil already asleep?
For those who have not seen it on the header of the models i posted up above it reads TS EIGHT...thats a clear indication the NHC will upgrade at 11pm.
1064. Patrap
..she sated & fed..thus the blogging..LOL
With it so far to the east, unless TD8 has its northward movement squashed down some, I think a trough would catch it if it were north of 20 N from 50 to 80 West--I just think a trough catching it is inevitable. So, unless and until I see a model consensus taking TD8 into the Caribbean, I will keep my probabilities for a USA landfall very low.
its nice to track a powerful storm like gordan knowing it will no affect land
swFLboy yes it is
OK-so No BOC, but what do you think about the Caribbean? I see circulation? What do you all think?
Anyone else notice the 18ZGFS initializing Gordon so weak, barely a TS? This info is based on the FSU model page.
Holy Chit...check out the wind gust at this buoy in the lesser antilliesat 0042 time.Link
1071. Gatorx
Ok I got it Kyle...no chance for a loop for Gordon - maybe slight chance for Helene. Thanks for the info. Sorry you had to post it twice..
I wouldn't be surprised if Gordon skips Cat. 3 status at the next advisory. Either that or a high-end Cat. 3. The 5PM advisory was written just as the eye was clearing.
1073. Gatorx
hurricane23 at 1:31 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.

For those who have not seen it on the header of the models i posted up above it reads TS EIGHT...thats a clear indication the NHC will upgrade at 11pm.



Or could be a big typo...if so ..heads will roll!!
Here is the model to watch concerning Helene....Link. Watch the GFS. This is the global model to watch now that we are getting into fall. This will be the most accurate especially when this system gets above 20N. Watch the progression of troughs moving off the East Coast. We are in a progressive pattern right now over the Continental U.S.. We have a new front approaching the East Coast every 3 to 4 days. This system has about a 5% chance of affecting the U.S. East Coast. Bermuda is at about 20%.
(Guys this is a threat to bermuda)



1076. Gatorx
Pat-


One word for you...Bragger
Hurricane Helene in 1958 was a real close shave. Peaked as a 933 mb hurricane 80 miles east of Charleston, and the eyewall hit Cape Fear.Link
That's fine Gatorx - and no Gordon will not loop, but Helene probably has a chance less than 5% of doing it, but hey that's still a chance!



These model runs clearly show quite a few of the models shifting to the left.
Gatorx, I understand the risk and money. But this is perfect example of a storm that intensying. We need to study these deeply to get the key to intensity, which right now is a game of jumping on the bandwagon once intensifcation starts.
1080. Patrap
..next CONUS trough is expected to Push thru the east coast..next tues-weds.....thus the sw winds,..thus the Protection ..from any west bound threat...
1081. Patrap
..next CONUS trough is expected to Push thru the east coast..next tues-weds.....thus the sw winds,..thus the Protection ..from any west bound threat...
1082. Gatorx
weatherguy03-
thank you weatherguy for the great info.
1083. Patrap
..Grins real wide....(-------)
weatherblog. LOL s.flo waiting for that front moving south.
Posted By: swFLboy at 1:30 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.

I think TD 8 will strengthen quite a bit faster than predicted. Probably 36-48 til it becomes a cane.


can you tell me why it will?
The nogaps is now takeing the system to the north.
1087. Gatorx
txweather--
I agree with you. I am just wondering out loud why they would pass up this opportunity.
Your the GFS guru Weatherguy! Any idea why it initializing Gordon so weak?
the models show a south dip, but i dont buy it
Has there ever been a year without a HURRICANE make a US landfall?
Okay, look at this model run. This graphic is from the last frame of the run (end of forecast period), and shows a considerable weakness in the ridge courtesy of that large trough, but that weakness is NOT south enough to affect Helene, as the ridge remains in north of her:

1092. Zaphod
Rapid -- probably an error on that buoy? And we wonder why the models get confused!
Zap
1093. Patrap
..sees that big whooping high crashing south outta canada ..in that last frame..LOL
well wasnt td8 moving sw most of today that may explain why this s going west am i correct

oh thanks for all the info you guys :)
Do not use the GFS for intensity. Thats why we have the SHIPS and the GFDL. I use it strickly for track. I find it performs much better in Sept. and Oct. with tropical systems. Also, much better above 20N.
1096. Patrap
..from Manitoba to Arkansas..theres your Blocker...a big un too...
In other words, even if Helene is not picked up by a trough around 45-50 west to recurve it, I think it would turn west again for a while, but then the next trough at aroun 65-70 West would catch it.
1098. Gatorx
Pat-

You know we have a saying here in Florida (yes I'm one of those whiney Floridians your always talking about}

The guys that brag---
are makin up for what they lag!
Okay I think it's quite funny how you think you're forecasts are above the models (hurricane23). If the models were to forecast a northward movement, then you would find them accurate and believe them (which I have seen MANY people do this season), but if they show any westward movement towards the U.S., they aren't accurate.

Do you really think this is what the NHC forecasters do?
1100. Patrap
.St Simon sees the big pic very well..and xplains it that way too...

Interesting GFDL model.

So tell me, is that high pressure scooting all the way over to the European coast the famed "Bermuda High"? And if so, is it normal for it to move so far east and north for this time of year?

And did anyone else notice another storm hitting the same spot on the Baja peninsula near the end of that run?
The NOGAPS shows the ridge alittle stronger in the 144 hour time frame. But as you see, out ahead of it is another trough. It will end up going NW.
1104. Patrap
..never clips no one ..esp in Gulf region...
1105. Patrap
..never clips no one ..esp in Gulf region...
But, the way that the NOGAPS positions that High it looks alittle strange. I dont buy it.
1107. Patrap
..never clips no one ..esp in Gulf region...
Cajun there have been many years without a hurricane making a US landfall, and there was a 3 year 8 day gap from August 10, 1980 to August 18, 1983 between hurricanes Allen and Alica making landfall.

That is the longest period without a hurricane landfall in the US known.
1109. Patrap
..never clips no one ..esp in Gulf region...
Okay I think it's quite funny how you think you're forecasts are above the models (hurricane23). If the models were to forecast a northward movement, then you would find them accurate and believe them (which I have seen MANY people do this season), but if they show any westward movement towards the U.S., they aren't accurate.

Do you really think this is what the NHC forecasters do?
1111. Patrap
servers going bezerk..LOL
ok its TD 8 is moving:
W
SW
WSW

and is headed for:
the caribean
Florida
North Carolina
Bermuda
Fish

ok thats enough for me to prepare
1113. Patrap
..I got a DoD server message then a reboot ..thats different...
We have an auction of a Hurricane, who takes it for his house? the one who gives more?
Thanks StSimonsIslandGAGuy
I was just so positive that there is at least 1 hurricane landfall every year.
Looks as though this will be one of those years with a Hurricane making US landfall
Kj, thanks for posting. Notice the ridge only extend to about 65. To the northwest is a Huge trough with w flow all the way down NW carribean. A front will be extending s from that strong low in SE Canada area.

Also note the storm caught off the west of mexico bring moisture to me YAH. But I'll belief that when I see it.
Guys here is the Long range GFS out to 384hrs.It is very unlikely TD8 will affect the eastcoast. WATCH THE LOOP
Actually, more than 1/3 of all years have no hurricane making landfall in the
USA
And welcome, Cajun :)
1120. Gatorx
Goodnight everyone--kids get up early for school so whoever is on between 5:30 and 6:30 am - I'll see you in the morning!
fish storm.
whats this:
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09 13 1006 E 4.1 42.9
09 13 1918 SE 7.0 130.0
09 14 0042 E 6.0 65.1

LOL.. Wow 3 wind gusts that are mistakes???
Maybe a speed boat passed by...? :)

M/DD/ Time(GMT) Wind Direction, Sustained 1 min, GUST.

Lol. Wow.
Big Gusts.
Guys here is the Long range GFS out to 384hrs.It is very unlikely TD8 will affect the eastcoast. WATCH THE LOOP
Lefty Gordon may be a fish, but Helene still has a chance at Bermuda.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy,the funny thing is that both those storms were dozzies(Allen and Alicia)
The Hurricane has been sold to the man with the Stone House.
Past peak so it is safe to start looking at late season! Carrib has been hostile this year, maybe no late season runners like Wilma either! Insurance Companies Rejoice!
For Texas they were, although it was very fortunate that Allen did not hit Corpus Christi with its eyewall.
Posted By: magicfan1423 at 9:58 PM EDT on September 13, 2006.

LOL Hurricane 23... You're going to count on 1 model.

You are pathetic. Are you a Meteorologist?? *Crickets Chirping*
Ok then, shut up.

Actually just looking at facts thats all.
You will see the huge TROF in the coming days its ok.You should be thankful that the odds are high stacked againest TD8 approaching the U.S we all need a break after going threw the last 2 years.
Hey, plz, somebody correct. NHC has Helene somewhere about this time tomorrow night at 39W, 15N. Want she have to do some "drag racing" to there by that time?

And right now, she's still moving west...what gives?
swflbow 117kt is 134 mph
Evening Lefty!
I was actually in Corpus at the Time of Allen. I remember going to Padre after the storm and seeing a sea wall 1mi long 10ft tall turn upside down.

Alicia was devestaing and given another 6hrs would have been much worse. Really efficient on wind transport to the ground. Its the example often given for an intensifying storm vs a non intensifying storm. It also where were learned high rises go up a category for wind.
The scary thing was.. The most INTENSE Hurricane EVER in the ATLANTIC was Wilma.. in October. That's scary... imagine August or September with the conditions Wilma had. Those so very Favorable Conditions that allowed an Atlantic record 90 millibar pressure drop and 115 mph gain in wind speed in 24 hours.
For the forecast map go to: Link

Tropical depression 8 has strengthened and become organized enough to be named Helene, the 8th named storm of the season. This system has to potential to become a hurricane in about 60 hours or so, as the conditions ahead of the system appear favorable for development. The SHIPS model brings Helene to a major hurricane in 72 hours, which seems a bit extreme, but is is possible for this storm to be a hurricane by day 5.

Computer models are become less and less in agreement past 2 days on how Helene will be steered. A few more models this afternoon have jumped on the wagon on the scenario of a more Westward track past 72 hours. It will become more clear once Hurricane Gordon moves across the weakness in the subtropical ridge tomorrow, and whether or not the ridging fills back in, which a few more models are indicating tonight, For now, the track will stay close to the same, except a slight bend to the left at day 4.
for experimental purposes only
moonlightcowoboy

first it is not forcasted to be at 15n in 24 hrs

INITIAL 13/2100Z 12.7N 30.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 12.9N 33.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 13.6N 36.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.7N 39.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 41.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 44.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 46.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 49.5W 85 KT



and who cares if its still moving west, the forcast is a cone not the line. notice for the first48 hrs if she moved along the southern partof the cone she would move due west. thatswhywe look atthe cone not the line down the middle.

magicfan142, pressurewise yes, but windwise, less than Allen, Gilbert,Camile,Labor day. Last year we really has a lower ambient press in the atlantic Basin so pressure wind relatioships were much more like the WPAc.

Now it was a real powerful storm and there is arguemt that Wilma ariound sound a tiny eye might have had higher winds, but here several issue with this theory and the truth is unknown.
1144. tequib
OK, I have a question for you tropical weather experts. Having followed your discussions the past few weeks it seems very unlikely to me, however, would anyone mind offering up their estimation of the chance of a TD/Hurricane making it to the Yucatan penisula before October? I have more than a rooting interest in that not happening...
Hurricane23-
If you do not mind me asking, how old are you?

The U.S. has been THROUGH quite a bit these past 2 years, no doubt. Am I supposed to take your implications from A model run that is 384 days in the future, and synthesize it within my plans for the next 3 weeks? Or shall I be the intelligent person i take myself for and keep an eye on soon-to-be "Helene" as it approaches 55 west?
Moonlightcowboy~ Check out WU new little tracking toy for TD8...From where it is spinning now, if you go back 24hrs, the length it has traveled is greater than if you go forward 24 hrs into the forecast. It been drag racing already.
Hurricane79 whats up have seen you on for a while.
Whats up 23, have been busy with the school year starting, now that things have calmed down at school I can focus more on actual forecasting.
Begging your pardon, Lefty, maybe you should get your glasses out and a calculator and look again...2 am would be slightly more than 24 hours, and the line would be at 15N, or close to.

I'm acutely aware of the cone. It's unlikely to turn futher north at that time, so consequently, and especially with its present westward movement, the storm track would have to move further west.

IMHO.
79. Where did you go? Did Florence let you down!..LOL..J/K.
tequib, impossible to say. Depends if something can form in the NW carribean.
Hey WG03, no she brought some good waves to my surfer buddies. I've been busy with school man.
Tequib- Oh it can happen... Wilma... Again. We bring up Wilma.

Oh and to Tex- Wilma, I never said it was the STRONGEST wind WISE.. Notice how i clearly (or so i thought) emphasized INTENSE? Of course you didn't, that's right, because you actually felt the NEED to ARGUE with me about a FACT.
Wilma was the MOST INTENSE, that is a fact. 882 Millibars is a FACT. Dropsondes + Buoy measurements made it a FACT.
Do you see the pattern yet, or shall i elaborate further?
I'm sure you get the picture.
Don't argue for the sake of arguing.
Wilma was the most Intense Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

I know you're going to post back stating something about me, attacking me somehow. Let's just get one thing straight, You started this.
You can either continue it, then immaturely tell me to quit arguing with you when, in fact, you were the one who began the argument with me, or you can be mature, recognize the point I made, not post back to this statement, and hate me for it.
heres a question how much south does td8 have to stay to miss the trof that will turn her north .?
I hear ya. Been there done that. Couldn't imagine it again!..LOL
Ya know, Gordon is about the purdiest annular 'cane I done seen.
StSimons,

Did you see Ioke recently?
not recently, since Ioke is deceased. But yeah Ioke was good too.
WOW- That eye on Gordon just sends chills through my spine. It's so axisymmetrical... Phew. It's great to look at.
Look, it was just a guess, an observation, probably a wrong one. I yield to the sages.
Ioke wasn't annular; annular hurricanes do not go through EWRCs (Ioke went through at least half a dozen EWRCs).
Posted By: magicfan1423 at 10:14 PM EDT on September 13, 2006.

Hurricane23-
If you do not mind me asking, how old are you?

The U.S. has been THROUGH quite a bit these past 2 years, no doubt. Am I supposed to take your implications from A model run that is 384 days in the future, and synthesize it within my plans for the next 3 weeks? Or shall I be the intelligent person i take myself for and keep an eye on soon-to-be "Helene" as it approaches 55 west.

Iam 29 years old...All iam saying is that a major mid-latitude trof and a strong cold front will be pushing off the east coast sometime early next week.It will be nearly impossible for TD8 to approach the east coast.

SEE HERE
magicfan1423,Whoa man I'm not attacking. I caught the intensity part. Meterologically speaking that is called deepest. No problemo. You are right it was one bad storm. Its just one of my pet peeves is the press being used as the absolute determinant. I also found it super interesting the lower press relationship last year and saw an opportunity to emntion that. I see this blog as a place to teach about tropical weather and that is, to me, a really intesting topic. It actually is most humorous when figuring out the weakest storms over the last time period. The wimpiest of the wimpy.
St. Simons,

I didnt mean recently as in yesterday, since Ioke is long gone from being it's former monster self. My point was that Ioke was much more impressive then Gordon, being larger, colder convection, and longer lived. Of course, beauty is the eye of the beholder.
MichaelSTL, thanks for reminding me about the lack of EWRC in annular hurricanes. We will have to see if Gordon tries to make an EWRC or not.
1166. Patrap
..itensity goes to Wilma..in pressure..but in force and power..and overall damage swath..the most powerful and damaging Hurricane to strike the US..was witnessed last year..in Katrina.
Hello to all.
Annualar refers to the appearance of the CDO and convection - no rainbands whatsoever, just an eyewall:

I am So excited as I look through today's disscussion as we talked about

Monica (Most Perfect Cyclone ever) Isabel (Best Eye Ever) and Wilma (Overall Best Cyclone Ever Recorded....and Coolest looking along with Gilbert Mitch and Typhoon Tip)
I am a newby..do I have to hit refresh everytime to bring up the new comments?
1171. KRL
Geeezzz, bunch of Cat 5 EGO's on this blog.

Chill out people. Its just a blog and as such for entertainment only.

There's some who do know what they are talking about on here, and are very professional, but it's pretty clear most are just wannabee meteorologists that get all wigged when they get called out on their guesswork.
MichealSTL,

Very true, but Gordon's not annular either. At least he doesn't appear to be. I was kinda pointing out how we live in the present since gordon has a nice appearance, but not really cold cloud tops, nor very large. IMO, Ioke was much more impressive then Gordon, annular or not. Expecially since it maintained Cat 4/5 for about 4 days.
Hurricane23-

Ok, well then as a man with your self-proclaimed Tropical Weather knowledge, you do know that troughs change, things change, and counting on a trough 4 days out to be at the magnitude that ONE model calculates, and to subsequently base your Tropical Weather Forecasts on it is extremely incompetent?
Accurateadj~ Yes...refresh..
The most recent microwave passes miss the center; this is the closest one:

thank you , skyepony
I disagree with that Magicfan. You have to look at the overall pattern over the Continental U.S right now. What is it showing? Well, its showing a very progressive pattern right now with a new trough(front) making its way off the U.S East Coast every 3 to 4 days. We are in a fall pattern right now. This pattern will not let any tropical systems near the U.S East Coast. Then you look at the long range GFS model, which is the king of all the global models. It shows this pattern will continue for the next two weeks. Thus, the chances of a East Coast landfall from Helene are slim.
once again lefty starts more crap.... wtg tough guy... lol too funny
1180. Patrap
..td-8 starting to get its mojo in gear...as it exits the verdes..westbound
Hello all, so how far west do you'll think TS Helen gonna go before she turns N or NW? I see the models has changed a little.
1182. Hatchet
looks like a sonogram of the devils spawn
TD8 will not reach the U.S. I don't even think it will reach Bermuda before heading north.


Magicfan, you sure are a cranky individual ;)


Excellent, just noticed the new "Modify Comment" functionality!
People have been using the term "annular hurricane" too frequently and often in a falsified manner, just like "pinhole eye".

Personally, I'm not pretending to be a meteorologist. Heck, I'm not even studying meteorology. This is merely a hobby of mine that I take interest in. However, I do like being accurate, and if I misstate something, I'll commit the correction to heart.
Anyone see just a little convection at the center of the boc ull. any chance it can get down to the surface and maintain convection.
11pm sould be comeing out at any time now
Repeating the 1100 pm ast position, 27.8 n, 57.1 w. Movement toward,
north-northeast near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 120 mph. Minimum central
pressure, 955 mb
Hmm...only 120 mph at 11PM. Still a respectable increase, though I expected slightly more. Still, I suppose that ties into my post just above. I'm no meteorologist and am not trying to be.
GORDON A CAT3 120MPH WINDS MOVING OUT TO SEA...
Helene is now official.
this waiting on TD 8 update lol
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM HELENE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST OR ABOUT 565
MILES...910 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22
MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.3 N...32.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
1195. Xion
Tropical Storm Helene is here according to TWC.
Repeating the 1100 pm ast position, 13.3 n, 32.7 w. Movement toward,
west-northwest near 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 40 mph. Minimum central
pressure, 1005 mb
1197. Hatchet
It has been locking up had to clear cashe and cookies and sign back in
Sprocketeer,

Gordon has impressive appearance, but not the very cold convection that ussually goes along with it. I believe that, along with no info from recon for a while, is keeping the NHC conservative.
ok now td8 11pm they must be changing it now
1200. Hatchet
possible high traffic on site
Posted By: swFLboy at 2:50 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.
Has anyone else had a problem with internet explorer crashing?...


Have you tried Firefox? May be a more stable browser for you.
www.mozilla.org/products/firefox/
Uuuuummm, Lefty...she's hauling ass. Won't be my first time to eat crow...lol.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...27.8 N...57.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

We got 1 major cane....Ya!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yea 456...also notice the bend on helene's track.
magicfan1423, I am very sorry to hear of your loss. I know there is nothing that can be said to help your sadmess. But please do remember even though us on this blog will never meet in person, there is a helpful caring group of people here that hope only the best for you and that we will keep you in our prayers.
1208. HCW
For all of those of you screaming fish. Please check out the latest 11pm hurrevac track for Helene.

Link
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD RESUME
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STAIR-STEP
SCENARIO...WITH NOGAPS BEING A MODEST OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE PACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
Posted By: txweather at 3:03 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.
magicfan1423, I am very sorry to hear of your loss. I know there is nothing that can be said to help your sadmess. But please do remember even though us on this blog will never meet in person, there is a helpful caring group of people here that hope only the best for you and that we will keep you in our prayers.

D I T T O
1211. Inyo
not to draw your attention away from the amazing (hopefully) fish storm in the atlantic, but the GFS models are STILL showing a tropical system or its remnants hitting northern Baja or southern California with heavy rain next week.
ts is now really flying at 22 mph. let the modeles digest that and see what the track will be .

and now our local new in so fla. says we need to watch this storm its not set in stone it will be a fish .

magic fan sorry to hear that stay well.
That track only goes out to 50W. Yes, it will miss the first trough. But, it will get picked up by the next one at around 55W to 60W.
Regarding Gordon, 120 mph may be about right, since the eye is quite large. However, I bet the pressure is less than 950 mb in reality.
It will do a stair step as mentioned by the NHC until it finally gets swept up to the NW.
So Helene really will end up west and not move out to sea????
any news on the BOC flare up
who knows weather 456 it up in the air right now .
I don't think they even mention the BOC in their discussion from the NHC. I don't see the flare up tonight, atleast not like it did last night.
swflboy

No problems with IE crashing here. Maybe you have something else going on? Installed anything today, on purpose or otherwise?
swflboy, I have had no problems myself. Did you try restarting your computer?
Inyo.... you are talking about is TD 13 E.... should crawl up the west coast of baja b4 crossing over in the gulf of california... here is the gfdl run on that....

Link
456. The track only goes out 5 days. Plenty of real estate for it to go out to sea. You will see it move out to the NW between 55W. and 60W. There will be few opprotunities for a trough to kick it out to sea.

Magic, I am sorry for your loss. I have lost two friends myself recently (November last year on his way back from delivering a trailer full of supplies for Katrina victims, and March when a lady friend committed suicide), so I know the pain and frustration believe me.

That said, it is not a good reason to treat people you don't even know with such venom.
if you live in S FL you need to start watching this by the look at this new track by the nhc this will NOT be a fish storm this time around
lol
sorry inyo that link was to the helene run... here is the TD threatning baja....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006091312-invest93e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation
WHILE THERE IS A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
HELENE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM CIRA SUGGEST THAT
THIS VERY DRY AIR IS NOT REACHING HELENE'S INNER CORE.
Posted By: Weather456 at 8:13 PM PDT on September 13, 2006.

So Helene really will end up west and not move out to sea????


at this time it dos not look like it
Taz, if the storm is going to be as strong as expected at the end of that forecast envelope, and going to want to head poleward, you would think something would have to drive it a lot further south during its trip across the Atlantic for it to end up in SFL.

Besides, I don't feel like putting up shutters again ;)


thanks taz i do and our now our local news is also keeping a close eye on helene . they didnt do this with flo or gordon . but with this one they say they dont know right now with the bend in the new track .

just keep tuning in .
taz, no offense, but that storm is nowhere near Florida in 5 days. Those models are reliable up to 3 days out. The local weather folks here in SWFL are still saying it heading out to sea, or at upper East Coast of the U.S.
456 that is a captain obvious statement seeing that helene has got her name. obviously the dry air is not affecting her SHE IS INTENSIFYING!!!! wow this blog is awesome! wwwooootttt
1238. Inyo
Clyde, the GFS had it further west... but in a similar track to John which hit Baja so it could be the case that this one will too
Well, Thanks and Good Night Everyone....
1240. jake436
SWFLBOY, I too have encountered this problem the last two nights. I'm no geek squad, but I think it happens when the blog gets too full, because it only happens when the good Dr. hasn't started a new blog in several hours. As far as Helene moving wnw, every site with updated info that I have seen reports it as moving wnw, so yes, others have noticed it.
SunriseSteeda i no your feeling but for right now i think any where from S FL to NC need to watch this storm


this will NOT be a fish storm this time around
Actually Mr perfect...The odds are helene will turn out to sea but the evolution off the TROF thats suppose to push of the east coast early next week will be key in determining the future track of this TS.
The Economist had a special section this week about global warming. I have just posted all the articles on Fshhead's blog.
this will NOT be a fish storm this time around

and your basing this on what information?
People.... The 5 day forecast still has Helene in the middle of the Atlantic, not even at 50 degrees West. To even imply this won't be a fish storm is irresponsible.

The fact of the matter is that we are in mid-september and temperatures are starting to cool because of Cold Fronts pushing south.... in fact, 2 straight cold fronts have reached Florida in the past 2 weeks.

Any storm this time a year that is above 20 degrees North and not yet at the Caribbean Islands stands a great chance to recurve out to sea.

The probability of troughs advancing are quite high.... in fact, a Cold front pushing through my area today here in Florida will likely pick up Helene and turn her out to sea on days 7 and 8 of the forecast.

This will be a fish storm.
Gordon, what an awesome sight! PERFECT EYE!
and dont forget helene is moving at 22 mph thats a good clip . and will make a big differnce in the trof race anyone else agree . ?

I hear ya Taz, it's not like anyone should write it off. Especially since the unexpected continues to happen ;-)
joshfsu123, i agree completely. great post
Puerto Rico says good bye to Helene!!!!!
Troll Alert...Someone made a blog with the handle DrJeffMasters. Copy & pasted this blog entry in there, well minus the image. Click here scroll down to the bottom of the entry & click on copyright...need 4 more.
Next year we'll be calling "fish storm" or "U.S. strike" when the waves are still over Africa, heh heh.

Right now, trying to guess where a storm will be at 7-8 days down the road is like saying the Dolphins are going to cruise to victory after they kick a field goal in the opening minute of a game.
::Chuckles:: Considering these things at times can do everything against the forecasts? Yep. I'm biding my time, and filling my gas to be safe. 8p
My forecast for Gordon to become our first major hurricane of the season and be a fish storm have verified.
Cloud tops cooling in the NW quad, with Gordon!
does anyone have a moving inflared or wv loop for helene thats not used by java thanks please.post link if you do
1259. Hatchet
A storm is a thing of Nature,the storms were brewing before we built or homes where we decided to,to say victims is to assign intelligent qualities to a thing of nature.That is like being angry at a Deer you hit with your car,they were running there long before we built roads,PLEASE there are NO victims.We knowing put ourselves in natures paths,we know the odds.
1260. Hatchet
adios
rayfromboston - what u see helene doing? path?
nite all....let's hope these all continue to head out to sea
Hurricane Helene, out to sea between Bermuda and the US.
Wow look how gordon is absorbing the wave over the islands.
Nite all!!
I've been doing frame-by-frame advances on the models - most of them have the high hanging in there for several days - just curious what the fast rate of farward speed will do to the oath - it seems she may get west quicker under the high and be at a lower latitude than the models are now predicting if she keeps hauling a## - thoughts?
1268. SydOpus
It is definitely not responsible to imply that Helene is not a fishstorm, but also not responsible to imply that she IS a fishtorm. Helene in is five days out still at 50W, but an increasing number of models have her turning westward at that point.

Of the 9 September TS' w/in 200 miles of Helene's current position, the two that struck US were big ones: Hugo and Isabel! 18% chance, but its a killer if it lands? Is that the historical model we are discounting?

I realize that the current lay of the Atlantic is going to make it difficult for a storm to make landfall if it isn't forming close to land, but it isn't impossible. Mid September weather does not make it impossible:

Skipping 05:
September Central Atlantic US landfalls:
04: Ivan - started south of Helene, but made it into GOM

03: Isabel: very similar

02: Lili: more like Ivan, southern, made it into GOM

Its too soon to say she's a fish storm, all we can say is that there's about 80% of a chance that she will be a fish storm. I'd say the water near the coast is still warm enough that that 20% warrants some attention.
Navy site has helene ay 13.1/31.9
Posted By: swFLboy at 10:54 PM CDT on September 13, 2006.

could anyone explain why they believe Gordon is slightly elongated and has been from e - w. Just curious.


Looks stretched out to me:


I don't have a problem with people giving their opinion of where it's heading, but when people state as fact it's heading to a certain area 7 days from now, that is a problem. Nobody knows where this thing will be 7-8 days from now. A slight wobble here or there can drastically change it's path over time.

By the way...Go Steelers. Culpepper sucks:)


True on the storm stuff. I would love to see the margin of error on forcasts a week out. I bet it's 1000+ miles (haha).

Even if Culpepper sucks, he sucks less than we have had in years. The Steelers, if that good, should have stomped the Fins decisively. Instead, it was a good game until the meltdown. Still, the models are undecided on whether the Fins are going to strike or simply be a fish storm.

it looks to me like helene will head more due west for the time being - the N side of her seems to be flattening out - maybe due to the high - betting that we get up tomorrow, and she has gone mostly due west - also consider her forward speed at the moment - may put her further west before northerly
1275. WSI

Fixing the bold problem...

Yeah MichaelSTL... storm looks a little squished.
Here is what I currently think about Helene's future path:



This explains why (the steering currents for weak and strong storms are pretty similar):

Remember: IT could happen tomorrow.
IR of Gordon shows cooling cloud tops, specificlly on the western side.

Yeah, on the satellite, Gordon's a pretty boy.

If Helene has any odds of reaching land, a path similar to Isabel's would be the most likely scenario. We are looking at a big "if" here, but also one that's a little too far off to be completely sure about.
'Night all, looks like the E Caribb wave has migrated and is looking quite healthy. I'll have to see what tomorrow brings.. It is suddenly looking very busy in the Atlantic.
nite, FISH!
SydOpus... wasn't Ivan also a SEPT CV storm? I seem to recall reading somewhere that it followed a similar track and made it all the way across...
OOPS!!! Sorry, reread and better get some sleep, you mention it wound up in GOM rather than East Coast... zzzzzz...
Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
1 Wilma 2005 882 mbar (hPa)
2 Gilbert 1988 888 mbar (hPa)
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
4 Rita 2005 895 mbar (hPa)
5 Allen 1980 899 mbar (hPa)
6 Katrina 2005 902 mbar (hPa)
7 Camille 1969 905 mbar (hPa)
Mitch 1998 905 mbar (hPa)
9 Ivan 2004 910 mbar (hPa)
10 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa

Dunno if this has been on here before, got it from wikipedia on Ivan. Isn't it strange that 3 of these storms were last year and one was 2004?? Could it be because our measuring devices have improved, well besides 2005 being the hellraiser of hurricanes??
And I know that the barometric pressure of hurricanes or lows in general is below 30, how does that correspond to the mbar reading, just gimme a link, don't call me stupid, PLEEZE.
Terry

Missing

Ivan like the GOM so well it made a pass back through.
An interesting article on how thunderstorms affect the ionization of the atmosphere as much as 250 miles up.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/09/13/space.storms.reut/index.html
Posted By: miracleaa1990 at 3:54 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.

I've been doing frame-by-frame advances on the models - most of them have the high hanging in there for several days - just curious what the fast rate of farward speed will do to the oath - it seems she may get west quicker under the high and be at a lower latitude than the models are now predicting if she keeps hauling a## - thoughts?


She will make it to the weakness much faster and recurve sooner, right behind Gordon.
some assume if she speeds up she will miss the weakness. actually its if she slows down. than she would have a chance toi miss the enxt 2 troughs but thats not happening. even if she misses gordons weakness theres 2 troughs she ahs to contend with. i say at this point tis less than 2 percent it hits the us. It just aint happening.
1288. louastu
Hey groundman,

Here is a site with a millibar to inches Hg converter. It is near the bottom of the page (if you get to the links, then you've gone too far). It is a little limited, as it only goes to 920 mb though. I will try to find a better one.

Link
1289. louastu
Here's a better one.

Link
Posted By: louastu at 5:24 AM GMT on September 14, 2006.
THANKS, that's what I wanted, it's now in my bookmarks.
Terry
1291. 0ldman
Ivan was stronger than the map indicates. I was 150 miles inland when Ivan hit, it was still a cat 1 hurricane minimum.

nasty little bugger, I'm suprised the damage wasn't worse, had it hit more cities, rather than forrest, it would have been rough.
man! ole Gordo is lookin tough!
Models shifting to the north with Helene...





Helene looking kinda ragged on IR imagery...



florence is a goner...You mean Helene.
1297. Patrap
..the lizard...licks..his eyeball...
000
WTNT33 KNHC 140852
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM AST THU SEP 14 2006

...HELENE RACING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.7 WEST OR ABOUT 695
MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.7 N...34.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
1299. Patrap
..Helene..of the Azores...
HELENE 5AM DISCUSSION...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 140849
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006

HELENE REMAINS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. THE
CONVECTIVE BAND SEEN LAST NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS
SPREAD OUT AND FRAGMENTED...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 60 N MI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IN
GENERAL THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD AT 280/19 AS IT CURRENTLY LIES
SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY LARGE WITH THE MODELS FALLING INTO
TWO MAIN CAMPS. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL FORECAST
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY AND ALLOW THE STORM
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE LONGER AND FORECAST HELENE TO MAINTAIN A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 48 MORE HOURS. ALL OF THE
MODELS FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AT ABOUT HALF THE CURRENT
FORWARD SPEED...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING DAYS 3-5. BY THAT
TIME...HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS MORE THAN 300 MILES
WIDE...SO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE LONG RANGES IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

HELENE CONTINUES IN ITS STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
ITS LARGE SIZE AND THE FAST FORWARD MOTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL SOON CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND
ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE IMPACTS OF THE NEARBY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARE UNCERTAIN BUT COULD
END UP BEING AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITING FACTOR. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SINCE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
REMAIN 27-28 CELSIUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES HELENE TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND NOW
MAKES HELENE NO STRONGER THAN ABOUT 85 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AT
THE LONGER RANGES...BUT IT IS BELOW SHIPS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
1301. Patrap
..SHIPS curve down for Helene..SAL..inhibiting factor..again
Look like Helene will move out to sea. Not one model has her going west towards the Carribean.
The east caribbean wave from yesterday still looks like its tryin to play some innings, gotta get outta that shear though
all it is today is that little cluster under puerto rico, but once that emerges out of hostile conditions i think it could play some ball
i think we're going to see either that wave or the wave directly behind it in the same location emerging above s. america turn into something, seems like they just keep popping up down there
As the latest 06z GFS comes out, it looks like it has shifted slightly to the west (maybe between the UKMET and the GFS previous run), but still shows that movement to the north after 5 days.
the bermuda high is definitely intensifying from yesterday
1312. Patrap
..Duluth,Minn 39 F
1314. Patrap
..Mullan,Idaho..34F
1315. Patrap
.Conus trof strong..as will next one be...
1316. franck
Sure would like to be in Mullan, Idaho. Summer's old here in 'bama.
1317. Patrap
..New Orleans 75F..NE @ 9...G morn Franck
1318. franck
Hey man, watcha know?
Been cool here too, low 80's by day. Back to 90 by Sunday. Uhhh...okay.
1319. Patrap
..eating my instant oatmeal..waiting for sunrise trip to take grumpy 13yr old jr. to school...
1320. franck
Sympathize with 13 yr old, no choice...instant oatmeal..your choice.
1321. Patrap
..chlosterol 300..Doctors choice..LOL
1322. franck
going to make coffee, listen to Imus mumble..later.
1323. nash28
Morning all. Models this morning with Helene are bending westward again at the end of the forecast period.
1324. Patrap
.Imus good mumbler..like him
1325. Patrap
,,GM nash...
1326. nash28
Hey there Patrap.
1327. IKE
Good morning everybody.

Another cold front is progged to make it thru the SE USA the middle of next week. The end of the season for the northern GOM is within sight. Have to watch out for western Caribbean disturbances.
1328. nash28
Good morning Ike.
gm nash28

I thought the guidance for Helene was even further West last night than the current guidance. It appears to me it's now further North than West.
1330. K8eCane
nash
which models are going west with helene at the end of the period?
1331. nash28
The end of the forecast period most of the models show a slight westward bend, which to me indicates the presence of another ridge.
Good morning gang. See we have another TS. Good morning Helene too.
1333. nash28
Right now, the BAMM, NOGAPS and CMC take more of a westward bend than the GFS and GFDL.
Did anything change in track now that she is going west? Last night when it was WNW they said it would stick to WNW for atleast 24hrs, and not 12hrs later she is back to W... will this cause a change in the track come the next model runs?
1335. nash28
I don't think it will change the official track too much Benirica. The NHC did shift their 5am track further to the left than the previous track and they may shift a little further south at 11am. We will have to wait and see.
Geesh... the systems this year are all acting like pissy teenagers... they seem to do what they want and are playing around with the forecasters. I swear its been a little game with Helene every discussion is (a little to the right of the previous track, a little to the left of the previous track,...)
Those poor guys are gonna loose it.

By the way, is there a reason the systems this year off of Cape Verdes want to be huge (in size)?
1337. nash28
Yeah Benirica. They are very large this year, except for Gordon, which is a compact buzzsaw.
Is Helene bigger then Flo?
Very impressive mimumal tropical storm . Got to go. Opportunity of a life-time. Surf is pumping.
1340. IADCW
Looks like Gordan is gonna head east and then turn south west in front of Helene. 10 days out is bad news for the east coast. Now that is as good a forecast as anything I've seen yet. 10 days out forecasting gives 1000 to 1500 mile wide cone of error. I think my forecast falls in that catagory.
1342. ricderr
good morning boys and girls....gordon looks good this morning.....might be the best he will look......helene following well....my thoughts and wishes go out to all the fish in harms way....
Hey all whats the scoop with helene and the BOC flare up?
From the models it looks like Helene is heading north about five days out unless im reading it wrong
Good morning everyone.
Helene = Fish Storm, end of story
and im the last person you would see label a storm a fish storm, usually annoys me
and im the last person you would see label a storm a fish storm, usually annoys me

I agree Story. If you're saying it then it is all over! LOL

1349. nash28
Good morning StormW, Rand.
Morning Nash, Storm, Ric...everyone.
Story....that chart about tells the story! End of Story, Story!
Good Morning:

TS Lane: 56th Cyclone for 2006:



Navy is going West however..
lol ric
rather abrupt westward pull if you ask me
Well that chart about tells the story, Story. It's going West now and bucking the trend and climatology as per sprinkle's forecast.
Sheesh...I'm really confused now!
1361. nash28
Yes, it is abrupt, but interesting nonetheless.
1362. Gatorx
Hi everyone...good morning. Ok now that I've seen the prediction track....I'm not worried...end of story...not!
TS Helene:

got another area of disturbed weather sitting over Brazil

ya dont end the story too quick, im just going off of the past 4 other storms that have made their way to swim with the fishes, always could be wrong
probly get sucked up by Helene though
wow helene is twice as big as the islands
1372. Gatorx
Oh Lord--Rand has been cruisin his clipart file again...
Latest Canadian takes almost the same path as Gordon...Link Its not going west.
1374. Gatorx
Gotto go..have a great day everyone!
Helen is one BIG lady!
NOGAPS looks like it will follow suit....Link
1377. ricderr
winds
ok.....now observe this picture showing mid to low level winds..and extrapolate if you will over time..and if that doesn't make the picture clearer..then nothing will...next..notice the size of helene..this girl needs a visit by richard simmons...tears in his eyes telling helene to get on the program....and guess what?...richard is in florida...and he's not making travel plans...havoc i say!!!
This fast motion makes two thinks more likely. The NW turn will happen sooner; Helene will take Gordon's path. Second, it will not get very strong.
1379. IADCW
I see what you mean there weatherguy. With a 500 to 1000 mile cone of error with a model run that far out, it could end up in canada, europe or the carribean.
ric, are you thinking she won't make the turn?
1381. nash28
Wow Bob, that's pretty bold of you. Even though we are still a week+ out on this.
The error is more like 300 miles, but yes there is error at day 5.
I just dont see it any other way Nash. It will take her awhile to reach Hurricane strength, just like Florence, and she will move along the same lines as Gordon. Thats how I see it today.
1385. IKE
All of these storms out in the Atlantic are nice to look at, but their not going to bother the USA or even the islands...

The western Caribbean seems like the only area to have much of a chance of spawning something that affects the eastern US. Just getting too late in the season and the consistent cold fronts coming thru is a blessing for GOM residents.
1386. IKE
Day 106 on the Atlantic season.

77 days left.
1387. ricderr
saddle read my bio....and SWLA...ricderr sees this as a fish storm but sprinklebottom...well..he's in control today.....in controll i tell you..and i don't fishcast like my weak alter ego..i look at all possibilities..i hold no faith in models or climatology..i am the brother to the storm so we share the same spirit..and look at this model.....havoc i say!!!
nogap
now at first glance you say..hold it sprinkle..that shows it as a fish storm..but..what if someone put the arrows backwards?...yep..you're getting the picture...consider all possibilities!!! sprinklebottom
1388. nash28
It's not a fish storm, nor is it a landfalling storm. It's really nothing yet. Long ways to go folks.
One thing you will notice with the NOGAPS at 5 days is another trough getting ready to exit the East Coast. It is almost at 30N. by then, so it will turn NW then N.
1390. IKE
Everything is turning north by about 60W.

If you're in a boat out there it could be a problem, otherwise the westerlies are blowing across the SE US coastal waters. An early fall is here.
1391. IKE
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 7:49 AM CDT on September 14, 2006.

One thing you will notice with the NOGAPS at 5 days is another trough getting ready to exit the East Coast.


Yup...that's the next cold front.
1392. ricderr
OK..nash....a new term is appropriated..that's "nocasting" when it's just too early to cast at all
1393. IKE
I'm ready for some cooler weather.

Darn $200 electric bills I pay every month are getting old.
The pattern is what it is. If I saw the long range GFS showing something different the next two weeks I would think this system had a chance, but this fall pattern will continue. Oh well, my two cents for the day. Catch ya all later.
Good Morning All-

OK. We have TS Helene. Too soon to tell if she will hit the US??? What do you think.

Another wave seems to be coming off the African Coast.

There is a spin over the Antilles.

Anything in the GOM???
1396. IKE
nocasting.

wishcasting.

westcasting.

cat5casting.
1397. ricderr
and fishcasting..but in no way...are you allowed to forecast...that's out
1398. nash28
Who says you are not allowed to forecast Ric??
Facts this morning are ...Helene is another large system, not well organized and is tearing Westward at over 20mph. Intensification will be very slow because of all this. That's about all there is to discuss. Knowing track within 500 miles 5 days out is fairly impossible.



1400. IKE
Like weatherguy03 said...it is what it is.

fishcasting should be allowed...especially when it's happening.
Thanks IKE! We can discuss track, its fairly obvious. The pattern makes it very possible to forecast this system past 5 days. The only thing we dont know is how close will it get to Bermuda.
Helene is pretty big.
i just hope that helene stays away from Miami
Helene looks rather disorganied could the system fall apart completely??
"The Navy could be right. Here's a shot of the Ridge....looks real strong to me!" -Randrewl

now that is funny right there! LOL

MORNIN EVERYBODY! :wave:

looks like Helene, like all her otner "kin", seems fish food!

but since you can buy gas at $2.13 just outside of myrtle beach, i certainly have no complaints! :)

we can watch and study, from afar! :)

James Hansen from nasa says that he has enough eveidence that "global warming" is factual, and extinction for some secies, and sea level rises measured in "meters"!

"If we go down the path of business-as-usual, we will, as a result, be producing a different planet,"

"Because effects of global warming are only now becoming apparent -- through more severe storms, heat waves and droughts, through melting glaciers and the northward migration of plants and wildlife -- people do not understand that the need to act is urgent, he said.

The problem is that the atmosphere responds in a delayed fashion to greenhouse gas output. Because of that inertia, even if all emissions were stopped today, the Earth would continue to warm by about a half degree Celsius over the next several decades, Hansen said.

The global mean temperature already has risen 0.8 degrees C since the Industrial Revolution. Hansen said a rise of 2 degrees C or more would be catastrophic, causing rising sea levels to drown coastal cities and low-lying countries, and spurring mass extinctions."

full articlehere.....
1409. nash28
Dr. Masters needs to hurry up and post the new blog. This one is bloated.
1413. WSI
"It's not a fish storm, nor is it a landfalling storm. It's really nothing yet. Long ways to go folks."

Well, when I look and try to forecast, I look at trends. I also look at the models and see if they continue the trends. The "trough train" has been active. Looking at the GFS this morning, that trend looks to continue.

I would say it has a very high probability of staying away from the U.S. Still requires watching, especially for Bermuda. However the chances of this thing NOT curving is pretty low at this point in my opinion.

Yes, we have a lot of time to watch this, and things can change. The current pattern, and the models forecasting that pattern to continue.... both of those have to be considered heavily.
Good morning everyone!!
going to be a nice hot, humid sunny day in beautiful downtown Mobile!
I see that everyone is in a great mood except for Helene - she looks a little frazzled this morning.
1419. K8eCane
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 1:13 PM GMT on September 14, 2006.

it would appear that the latest model runs do not flatten out to the WNW line today.




BUT
BUT
BUTT......
WHAT IF OB LADEN HAS MANAGED TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE MODELS???
WHAT THEN????
Hey y'all. Our local weatherman made the annoucement this morning that some blob hanging over the Yucatan is going to move into the Bay of Campeche - he says everyone beware! He's sort of like sprinkelbottoms, but wondered if anyone had looked at it.
1422. ricderr
in all seriousness here is what we have. we have the knowns of helene..it's size...posistion and immediate movement...we have the knowns of highs..ridges and jet streams where they are .....we have the knowns of climatology...we have the probabilities of the ridge and high and trough movements...we have the probabilities of interactions between tropical cyclones and the aforementioned.thus..a forecast...can be made made with an expected degree of success...based on knowns and probabilities


HELENE doesnt look to bad to me..... considering its forward speed and dry air to the north......
GS - if that happens then you and I are in the clear! OB Laden would send anything direcly course to DC in attempt to wipeout Bush!
1425. WSI
"thus..a forecast...can be made made with an expected degree of success...based on knowns and probabilities"

Well said! I agree 100%.

Yes, wobbles and strength and unexpected ULL's can be a problem. However we do have SOME idea of what will happen.
you got that right GS!!
however, laying out by the pool with cool beverages would make the heat a little more tolerable.. :)
Good morning, all!

Looks like Helene is going through the "John Wayne Effect" -- Circles of convection scattered like indians circling a wagon ...and all moving West in a fast fury!

Whoa--when she all comes together, likely to be one helluva shootout.
Thelmores - your pic of Helene looks better than the one a saw of TWC a few minutes ago...maybe Helene doesn't look so bad afterall..
Good morning Gulf, Rand, Thel, saddle, littlefish,Bama, Ricderr, and everyone else!
Hope you are all having a GREAT morning. Helene Could go anywhere, at this point?? Am I right?
Good Morning all!!! Well it appears from all indications that the great sucking sound we have heard for the last two weeks will continue as Helene should follow the path of flo and Go.
1436. i12BNEi
Morning all! Are there going to be any landfalling canes this year or what....maaan.It does seem that if all these "fish storms" weren't that,We would have been pretty busy here in fl.
good morning Mermaid and ClearH20FL..
76 million dollars in crop damage estimated in NC from Ernesto..... which dumped 8-12 inches in the area.....
saddlegait,did u get an answer? i havent found it if you did,thanks
1444. ricderr
76 million dollars in crop damage estimated in NC tobacco?
well..nothing is WRITTEN IN STONE and neither is the track of Helene...yesterday was 27th anniversary of Hurricane Frederic and HE obviously missed a trough! lol
Morn'n all. Looks nice and peacable here this morning.

Everyone is getting along. Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy!
I am going to get breakfast now, since you guys made me hungry! LOL! Be back later.
1449. ricderr
ok.......assignment america time...what made frederick move west....and what are the similarities or descrepancies to Helene...a free waffle house wishacasting breakfast to the answer
..well for you smokers that means cost of cigs will go up,up,up...
1452. Oreodog
Did you know I counted 23 Waffle Houses between Houston and Baton Rouge on I-10? To make this weather related, 5 were shut down (Beaumont, Orange and Lake Charles) because of Rita.
lol-Rand!!
New Blog!
Ricderr..yes I would like to know too why Freddy picked Mobile..
wow i left here at 2pmthere was only 8 pages you guys posted up 22 pages in 8 hours good job

notice they have ts helene going further west at this point are the models stiill calling for a north turn .?
and at what latitude this will begin thanks . the high might be very stong and hold helene south right . :)


Hurricane Ioke Damage to Wake Island


The Central Pacific's biggest storm in a decade damaged 70 percent of the buildings on Wake Island when it slammed ashore last month, the U.S. Air Force said Wednesday.

Typhoon Ioke left the U.S. military research and refueling outpost without running water, and damaged power lines and a power grid. The buildings are being powered by generators, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The runway made it through intact, but it is missing its lights, the Air Force said.

On Monday, an Air Force response team that set sail by Navy ship from Guam reached the island and cleared the runway for planes to land, enabling a C-17 to fly to the island from Hawaii with 60 airmen and military contractors who have started assessing what repairs the facilities will need, Reed said.

The Category 5 storm passed almost directly over the 2.5-square mile atoll on Aug. 31 with sustained winds of up to 155 miles per hour and gusts of up to 190 mph. All 188 residents, mostly military contractors and Air Force personnel, were evacuated.