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Tropical Depression Eight no threat to land

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:24 PM GMT on September 26, 2009

Tropical Depression Eight formed last night near the coast of Africa, but is not destined to threaten land, and has only about a 50/50 chance of becoming Tropical Storm Grace. While wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are right at the threshold for tropical storm formation--26°C. There is only a small amount of dry air that is interfering with the storm, but the combination of cool SSTs and moderate wind shear will make TD 8 slow to organize. By Monday, shear is expected to reach a very high 25 - 30 knots, and this should tear the storm apart.

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation elsewhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Tropical Depression Eight.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

496. weatherbro 3:56 AM GMT on September 27, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


El Nino winters are generally wetter and cooler for Florida


I mean in the sense of no more Summerlike humidity and stalled fronts. lol



If the trough weather pattern stays consistent on the East coast. There could be some very large Ice and snow storms for the SE and NE this winter.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta love all the Canadaian BS...Buy American.
Hi TS- I know I'm just a new kid on the block, but I thought Canada WAS in North America? I'm just saying....
Quite the view from this link. I think I borrowed this from Tampa :)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Quoting presslord:


Presslord good job on your efforts in the Atlanta area.
507. JRRP
el blog esta hoy peor que suero de miel de abeja
TS...many thanks...we're gonna have photos posted to the Portlight blog Monday...
Thanks for the view Ossgss and Tampa!
Quoting Ossqss:
Quite the view from this link. I think I borrowed this from Tampa :)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Yep, one can see more from that view than any loop out there.....One can see shear better form there than from any link.
Quoting presslord:
TS...many thanks...we're gonna have photos posted to the Portlight blog Monday...


Dude you can't do that without asking those North of the border can you.....LMAO..you know what i mean.....LOL
Quoting presslord:
TS...many thanks...we're gonna have photos posted to the Portlight blog Monday...


Press, I appreciate your effort sincerely, but need to know if you are in any of the photos. Just in case :)
ex TD08's convection looks more impressive than it ever did while it was designated a depression--hope its remnant doesn't wander the Atlantic for weeks the way FredEx did. I was on vacation but that must have been annoying!
Oss...no...you're safe...but I could e-mail you a few interesting shots if you like...
Quoting presslord:
TS...many thanks...we're gonna have photos posted to the Portlight blog Monday...


Our Agent has hired a professional Promoter of fundraising. This might help with your cause if i see this working well for us. Keep up the great work.
rip td 8 and sorry wasn't on a day lol
Quoting presslord:
Oss...no...you're safe...but I could e-mail you a few interesting shots if you like...
No No No please, I have seen enough already. Please don't do that!!!!
it's really no bother...
we have a nice picture on our blog of Dr. Masters wearing his Portlight/WU t-shirt...

I thought I might pose in mine....wet....wearing nothing else...
520. xcool
btwntx08 hey
Quoting presslord:
we have a nice picture on our blog of Dr. Masters wearing his Portlight/WU t-shirt...

I thought I might pose in mine....wet....wearing nothing else...


OH NO! PUT THE KIDS TO BED PLEASE!
Quoting presslord:
we have a nice picture on our blog of Dr. Masters wearing his Portlight/WU t-shirt...

I thought I might pose in mine....wet....wearing nothing else...


Nooooooooooooo
...well....OK...

...if y'all are gonna be all prudish about it...I'll wear a thong...
Quoting presslord:
it's really no bother...



Oh my, be careful folks,

For the rest of you who have no clue, take a look at this item.....From a previous blog where Press held everyone hostage through the Doc. Yikes,,,,, L8R

BTW, Press is the one with the cigar. LoL

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1140&tstamp=#commenttop




I still want to know, are those your legs or are you sitting on a chicken :)
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 hey

sup :)
my god I'm hot
we...'racked' up a lot of money from that picture...
529. xcool
:)
Quoting alcomat:
hey this is not a mexican blog,type english,you are here,and you need to learn our language,we dont need to learn yours...got it???

he knows english but he always writes spanish sometimes and u don't to get mad about it
531. xcool
btwntx08 who talk to ???
What a truely frightening image! So why am I a little turned on?
...shoot....How could you NOT be turned on?
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 who talk to ???

was talking to someone about jrrp thats he needs to write english cause he writes spanish on here lol
Quoting presslord:
we...'racked' up a lot of money from that picture...


Press is that you sitting on that chicken from the photo --- J/K -- out

536. xcool
btwntx08 lol
xcool nice avatar :)
OK, I am really starting to worry about a few of you...
...I have very sexy legs...
TS...you're just mad that I rejected your amorous advances...
542. xcool
Ossqss nice image.
ts lol
544. xcool
btwntx08 i try alot.
Well...they are legs...
Sorry.......i am dying laughing....
547. JLPR
528. alcomat 12:28 AM AST on September 27, 2009

that is such an ignorant post
Mexicans are not the only ones that speak Spanish, not everyone that speaks Spanish eats burritos
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 i try alot.

ok cool lol
So, I'm assuming Portlight exceeded all expectations as a result of the photo?
Re Post 528.
Hmmm, nowhere in the blog rules do I see anything about having to speak English. I do see rules that say people shouldn't be inappropriate or rude. You've been flagged.
551. JLPR
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
ex TD08's convection looks more impressive than it ever did while it was designated a depression--hope its remnant doesn't wander the Atlantic for weeks the way FredEx did. I was on vacation but that must have been annoying!


I agree its the best it has looked since... ever XD
552. xcool



yea mik...it was all for a great cause...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Re Post 528.
Hmmm, nowhere in the blog rules do I see anything about having to speak English. I do see rules that say people shouldn't be inappropriate or rude. You've been flagged.

agreed i do the same as u did :)
555. xcool
btwntx08 do u paying for Weather Underground >?
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 do u paying for Weather Underground >?

nope i got a free memembership
557. xcool
btwntx08 oh not me.I Pay For It
It's organizations like yours Press that makes one proud to be a member of the human race. Truely the better side of our nature...
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 oh not me.I Pay For It

why???
560. xcool
u got mailing
mik...it's truly a grassroots thing...really cool for all of us...makes me proud...Thanks!
562. JLPR
ex-TD8 blob, MLC I dont know lol
is looking good and the ex-huge TW is firing some convection

563. xcool
by Jim Williams... east atlantic wave could be one to watch.back in 1963 Hurricane Flora developed in this same area at the same time of year & hit hispaniola. Watch for a possible invest on this system by Monday as most models are showing a weak system making it across & not turning poleward. Infact this could be the system that the ecmwf shows in the western caribbean in 10 days. If this one does not develop I think the cape verde season has ended,at least for the possibility of one making it across
Quoting presslord:
mik...it's truly a grassroots thing...really cool for all of us...makes me proud...Thanks!


Is there a website?
Quoting hunkerdown:
Correct, he is no Tebow, but he is a much better thrower. I know high school stats mean nothing, but check out Brantly's. IF Brantly has to lead the team, with 2 weeks to practice with the first squad, he will come out and turn some heads. I don;t see this as a factor to cause any worry in the LSU game on Oct. 10.


I think Tebow will be back by then, sounds like it's only a concussion. Though concussions are nothing to take lightly, it's certainly not a slipped vertebrate or fractured collar bone, etc. Thank heavens! I'm sorry, but I don't think Brantly is ready for LSU, and Tebow is a fine passer, and until I see him (Brantly) prove himself against a more formidable opponent than Charleston Southern or Troy, I'll hope our current starter stays healthy. I hope Brantley can keep our momentum going into 2010 though, that'd be nice!
Quoting texdeb:


Is there a website?


www.portlight.org

aslso, we have a featured Weather Underground blog...or look under dr. Masters recommended links...Thanks!
Quoting xcool:
u got mailing

saw it and ok mmmmm
568. xcool



Drive Safe,!
569. xcool
btwntx08 anying hope.?
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 anying hope.?

na i stay as i am free membership :)
Quoting presslord:


www.portlight.org

aslso, we have a featured Weather Underground blog...or look under dr. Masters recommended links...Thanks!


Thank you. I will turn as many people on to it as I can. It sounds like a wonderful thing. All of you should be very proud.
Quoting texdeb:


Thank you. I will turn as many people on to it as I can. It sounds like a wonderful thing. All of you should be very proud.


that sorta thing is key...Thank you...
he flooding around Atlanta this week is one for the record books. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the rivers and streams had magnitudes so great that the odds of it happening were less than 0.2 percent in any given year. In other words, there was less than a 1 in 500 chance that parts of Cobb and Douglas counties were going to be hit with such an event.

“The USGS can reliably say just how bad these floods were. They were epic!” said Brian McCallum, Assistant Director for the USGS Water Science Center in Georgia. “We have all witnessed the devastation caused by these floods, but now we can quantify it.” The data are gathered from the USGS real-time streamgaging network.

On Sept. 22, USGS crews measured the greatest flow ever recorded (28,000 cubic feet per second) on Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Ga.

Elsewhere in the Atlanta area:

* The Yellow River streamgages in Gwinnett, DeKalb and Rockdale counties measured flows between the 1 percent chance (100-year) and 0.5 percent chance (200-year) flood magnitude.
* Flows caused by the rain at Peachtree Creek in Atlanta were only near the 10 percent chance (10-year) flood magnitude, but the backwater effects from the Chattahoochee River pushed water levels over the 0.2 percent chance (500-year) flood at the gage location.
* On the Chattahoochee, USGS measured a 1 percent chance exceedence (100-year) flood at Vinings and Roswell.

“Today, six USGS crews are installing and repairing the 20 gages that were destroyed because of flooding. We expect that all but one gage should be operational by the end of the day,” said McCallum. “During flooding, these gages provide critical information to many users, so fixing the gages is our priority now.”

USGS also has two crews measuring high water marks, and will continue taking these indirect measurements in earnest on Monday. Pictures taken over the past few days by USGS scientists as they work in flooded areas are available online.
574. xcool
btwntx08 hmmm .ok
You are very welcome presslord.
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 hmmm .ok

but i can do it later on but not now
577. xcool
btwntx08 that kooling
brb in 30
579. xcool
:0
580. xcool
Link


new models.

Eeeewww Press in a dress..ya'll deserve a published climate abstract..

Gas hydrates: Entrance to a methane age or climate threat?

Volker Krey1,*, Josep G Canadell2, Nebojsa Nakicenovic1,3, Yuichi Abe4, Harald Andruleit5, David Archer6, Arnulf Grubler1,7, Neil T M Hamilton8, Arthur Johnson9, Veselin Kostov10, Jean-Francois Lamarque11, Nicholas Langhorne12, Euan G Nisbet13, Brian O'Neill1,14, Keywan Riahi1, Michael Riedel15, Weihua Wang16 and Vladimir Yakushev17

(Received 18 May 2009; accepted 20 August 2009; published 7 September 2009.)

Abstract

Methane hydrates, ice-like compounds in which methane is held in crystalline cages formed by water molecules, are widespread in areas of permafrost such as the Arctic and in sediments on the continental margins. They are a potentially vast fossil fuel energy source but, at the same time, could be destabilized by changing pressure–temperature conditions due to climate change, potentially leading to strong positive carbon–climate feedbacks. To enhance our understanding of both the vulnerability of and the opportunity provided by methane hydrates, it is necessary (i) to conduct basic research that improves the highly uncertain estimates of hydrate occurrences and their response to changing environmental conditions, and (ii) to integrate the agendas of energy security and climate change which can provide an opportunity for methane hydrates—in particular if combined with carbon capture and storage—to be used as a `bridge fuel' between carbon-intensive fossil energies and zero-emission energies. Taken one step further, exploitation of dissociating methane hydrates could even mitigate against escape of methane to the atmosphere. Despite these opportunities, so far, methane hydrates have been largely absent from energy and climate discussions, including global hydrocarbon assessments and the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


actually i feel tired so see ya later bye xcool lol
583. xcool
bye
584. JLPR
how can a disturbance with no LLC maintain convection like that? XD



almost 9 hrs and its still there, not bad, if it persists a new LLC should establish itself
585. xcool



586. xcool
587. JLPR
NHC isn't impressed XD

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHTH ARE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
#585 Snow on the map! That'll make some people happy...
Looks like FL, after the longest run of east flow all year has had a change of weather. I just got hit by a thundershower from the west.
591. xcool
mikatnight ,Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!
592. xcool
Link


here 00z Run ECMWF .
593. JLPR


You guys are talking about snow, I feel left out lol, it doesn't snow here :P, not that I want it to snow.

and with that im off to bed, goodnight everyone :)
From Max Mayfield's blog:

The Experimental Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
September 24, 2009 -
Although there are currently no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, I’d like to talk about the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that has been used to categorize the intensity of hurricanes since 1971. This scale was originally based on wind speeds and was never intended to apply to all the hazards of a hurricane. There is simply no one-to-one correlation between wind speed and storm surge or central pressure or rainfall or tornadoes.

This year, the NHC has started the process to make a modification to the scale. The name has been slightly changed to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane WIND Scale to make it absolutely clear that it is the wind – and wind alone – that determines the category. The descriptions of damage associated with each category have also been updated. These changes to the scale are experimental this year, but will likely become permanent in 2010.

The category is important because, in general, damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase.
Quoting xcool:
mikatnight ,Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!
Quoting JLPR:


You guys are talking about snow, I feel left out lol, it doesn't snow here :P, not that I want it to snow.

and with that im off to bed, goodnight everyone :)


Last time it snowed here I was a senior in high school...they had to declare a "snow day" and let us out early because no one could pry their eyes from the windows. We drove to Lake Worth Beach and watched it sprinkle over the ocean...
Looks like I'm the last one standing for tonight. Is there a prize for that? Then what the hell am I still doing awake???!!!

G'nite All. Sweet dreams...
Quoting mikatnight:
Looks like I'm the last one standing for tonight. Is there a prize for that? Then what the hell am I still doing awake???!!!

G'nite All. Sweet dreams...

Nah, I'm awake. I'm just not posting
Here is some information which Dr. Jeff Masters ignores, just like Michael Moores call for socialism/Communism with a one sided argument. Right now Dr. Jeff is finding himself in a growing minority of respected scientists that still claim that climate change is occuring, while the IPCC from the UN says other wise. My question is how can we tax the heck out of families(2000) a year as admitted under Obama, when we really do not understand the real causes of climate change. Like I have said in the past if you take CO2 at 150ppm and another sample at 380ppm, there is a 1 tenth of one degree temp change. For laymans terms thats, .01 degres C. CNN and Jeff Masters and Al Gore stand to make money off of this so they champion these causes even as more and more come out and call B.S.

Here are some Links:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/james-murray/2008/03/22/inconvenient-truth-global-warming-ended-ten-ye ars-ago

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-563104/Global-warming-stop-NATURALLY-years-say-scientists.h tml

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-563104/Global-warming-stop-NATURALLY-years-say-scientists.h tml

http://www.skepticsglobalwarming.com/?p=404

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080304113132.aspx

http://truthliesandcommonsense.blogspot.com/2008/05/10-years-without-global-warming-maybe.html

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10783

As you can see, Dr. Jeff Masters cannot switch views without admitting that he could be wrong. These studies clearly show that climate change seemingly as stalled ofer the last 10 years even with an increase of CO2, which I have been preaching in an experiment that was run in a lab. The biggest reason for climate change is the SUN and we are now entering what is called a Mauarder Minimum:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

I have stated that Humans tend to think that we are more important and are the cause of all of the problems in the world. We tend to think that everything is our fault and we believe that we are in control of everything and this is something that we are not in control of. What if that tax increase occurs and climate change still occurs? It would show that we dont know enough to address this situation. We have 50 years of live data (not counting Antartica Ice which showed much HIGHER levels of CO2 then even now.

So go log into CNN.COM and look under their scient section and just about every day you wuoo see something about climate change.... and yet the IPCC call it bunk, and I tend to agree with the majority of scientists.

So do you think that Dr. Masters will ever admit he is wrong. I dont think he will as he is commited to his argument that climat change is man made.

He needs to recognize the IPCC and the UN and others that say that climate change is a fallicy. In the link above I explaim the Mauarder Minimum and this link to climate change.

Dr. Jeff Masters and Ricky Rood, owe us an apology for misrespreseting climate change. In case you didn't know climate change has the same time of following as a religion.....

You both owe us an apology. I would recommend you do this as soon as possible.
Well, something killed the blog tonight!!!

Does anybody have anything to share about the current weather - Atlantic, Caribbean, Africa or the Pacific?
600. IKE
Quoting druseljic:
Well, something killed the blog tonight!!!

Does anybody have anything to share about the current weather - Atlantic, Caribbean, Africa or the Pacific?


I do about the Atlantic....it's dead.

I've been waiting for this for months>>>>

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 82. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Well, ex-Fred Jr. (remnants of TD 8) is not looking well as of right now. (Satellite pictures updated to 1045UTC)

Looking at the satellite image issued up on Dr. M's blog, it's looking kinda good, actually.


According to this image, I think the center of circulation is around 17.7N 38W.
Look at the track history of Fred and TD 8. It is almost connected, as if Fred ended up as TD 8!

P.S. As ex-Fred dissipated, the tropical wave that eventually became tropical depression 8, formed at the same time! (Sep 23 12UTC)
Here is the excerpt from the TWD:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009
(...)
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N...JUST ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAP AT 23/1200 UTC.
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N.
THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREAS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. RANDOM
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W.

(...)

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WERE THE REMNANTS OF FRED. THAT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED FINALLY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER.
604. IKE


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ARE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
New pattern for tropical waves in the Atl.

1. yellow, orange, red, POOF!

2. yellow, orange, red, TD, POOF!

3. Sheer = season POOF?
lots of convection near central america rainy season has finally arrived
just wait for 2011-12 get the med's ready
Quoting leftovers:
just wait for 2011-12 get the med's ready


I already have the meds! I am waiting for the 2010-2011
IKE - You think that 2010 will be a repeat of 2009?
There must be a gunsta on here. Some one defently shot the blog.
Autistic2 - Yep.. The blog is as dead as the season...
Quoting Autistic2:
There must be a gunsta on here. Some one defently shot the blog.


Good morning everyone,


yep every day they do it.
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - You think that 2010 will be a repeat of 2009?



Not Really. 2010 wil have a little bit more activity due to the weakening El Nino to a Neutral. It shoul be a neutral by the peak of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season
614. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE - You think that 2010 will be a repeat of 2009?


No. Could I be wrong? Yes.

2009 season started and may have ended within a 4 week period of time. I think there will be a couple of more named systems in October. They could be just like 4 of the 6 we've had so far...sheared out and never amounting to much.

I don't see anything for the next 10 days on the latest ECMWF.
615. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Autistic2 - Yep.. The blog is as dead as the season...


Yes it is.

Oh well...I've got other things to do.

L8R.

EDIT>>>Yeah, it's certain bloggers fault the blog and the Atlantic are dead.

Grow up.
616. P451
14-Day SST Loop (ending sep 26)


Four seasons in one state

* From: The Daily Telegraph
* September 27, 2009 3:04PM




Unusual ... Snow in Oberon. Source: The Daily Telegraph

SYDNEY and surrounds are battling hot sun, high winds and a dust storm reluctant to blow over. Now it's snowing in NSW. Send us your snow pics.

This week Sydney experienced the worst dust storm the city as a whole has faced.

Now, it is snowing in Oberon, when it is meant to be spring.
Do anyone think that 90L or 92L will be reclassified in post analysis. We had a brief discussion on it last night. Any thoughts?
Good morning everyone!!

Quiet on the Atlantic side, only 1 yellow circle, looks like "FredEx"!!

There are 3 yellow AOI's in the E PAC and TS Ketsana W of the Philippine Islands!!

Quiet is good after LAST YEAR!!! Everyone I believe next year on the Atlantic side will be much busier, just a hunch :0)!!!
620. P451
EC System

Quoting AussieStorm:
Four seasons in one state

* From: The Daily Telegraph
* September 27, 2009 3:04PM




Unusual ... Snow in Oberon. Source: The Daily Telegraph

SYDNEY and surrounds are battling hot sun, high winds and a dust storm reluctant to blow over. Now it's snowing in NSW. Send us your snow pics.

This week Sydney experienced the worst dust storm the city as a whole has faced.

Now, it is snowing in Oberon, when it is meant to be spring.


Man, bless your heart!! That is very unusual for you in Australia, I mean the WILD temperature swings in one area!!

Texas during earlier winter will do that a couple times a year!! Amarillo, at 36N, at 4000' elevation will be snowing and 25F and Brownsville, at 26N (Texas is REAL BIG) is 85F and sunny!! Texas actually lays in 2 climate zones, so I don't believe it's a fair comparison!!

Amarillo, TX has a 6 mo growing season, with 4 distinct seasons, sometimes all in on week!!

Brownsville, TX has a YR. round growing season, semi-tropical, a freeze occurs there once every 5-7 yrs, mild winters and HOT the rest of the year!!


I was sitting on the edge of the bay, just shooting away, I must have shot the blog, but I did not shoot the deputy
sea surface temp look really warm just west of the lower windwards seeing two waves pulse in that area the past wk might see something really try to develop in that part of theworld even though we've had a slow season in term of numbers potential invest and invest are way up and might even be in the range of active yrs
624. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Do anyone think that 90L or 92L will be reclassified in post analysis. We had a brief discussion on it last night. Any thoughts?


With these borderline systems I am not sure what to think. To me they didn't classify them (including the nearly STS Grace that hit NJ) because they weren't 100% fully transitioned/developed.

So if it's 99% it's still not a tropical or sub-tropical entity.

If they were 100% then they should have been classified.

If their lone criteria for holding back on 90 and 92 was simply SSTs then I have a problem with that and both systems should have been classified if that was the lone reason for not doing so.

SST should not matter. Structure does.

If SSTs matter so much then the moment a well organized major hurricane dips below their accepted SST threshold I guess they will de-classify such a theoretical system.

The fact that such a move would be ABSURD you have to wonder why it would logically apply to the reverse (a minor system developing over less than accepted SST)

One final note is system impacts. We've seen many times that systems go unnamed because they are either of no concern to land or are so weak that they feel there is no difference letting a 40mph system come on shore versus naming it an hour before it does so. They always cite "public confusion" as a reason for not naming such systems.

That, I also dislike.
Why must some bloggers find it necessary to say the blog is dead? One could tell from the amount of posts that it is not active, but isn't a blog comments really for informative posts on a weather topic? Also why post something for the sake of posting it if you don't really need to post it?

Back to lurking again.
P451,

I agree with you 100%. I'm less confident that the NJ low was Grace, but I'm sure confident that 92L was a subtropical cyclone. They stated no reasons but SST in their outlook and even admit 92L was better organize. The MODIS shots of 92L were unbelievable.

Another thing was 90L, they scheduled a 2PM aircraft reccon to 90L but 90L was forecast by them to make landfall at 8am, which it did. Where's the logic?

PS: I'm not bashing the NHC but just stating my views on the matter.
The Atlantic Basin Hurricane season is not OVER.

Reports from the kitchen stated that the "fat lady" is still eating parts of her 7 course meal, she hasn't started her dessert yet!! No insult meant to anyone, as I am 5'10" tall with a large stocky build at 270lbs.

I believe the season has a few more suprises in October. Stay tuned to "As the Cyclone Turns"!!
..
@P451

92L i Might understand, due to SSTs.
But 90L was gross negligence IMO (not NHC bashing), people's lives might have been at stake, it should have been named, I know people are going to say 'oh, they should have known bad weather was coming and to be aware so it wouldn't have made a difference if it was named or not' well thats the thing, it would because people will tend to treat it like an afternoon thunderstorm for an unnamed system but a named Tropical Storm, thats a different deal and people prepare, ect.
Quoting IKE:


Yes it is.

Oh well...I've got other things to do.

L8R.

EDIT>>>Yeah, it's certain bloggers fault the blog and the Atlantic is dead.

Grow up.
now thats the truth
Quoting sporteguy03:
Why must some bloggers find it necessary to say the blog is dead? One could tell from the amount of posts that it is not active, but isn't a blog comments really for informative posts on a weather topic? Also why post something for the sake of posting it if you don't really need to post it?

Back to lurking again.


well said. Every single day they post the TWO despite many of us already know where to find it and that we already know the tropics are quiet, just to insistently complain the blog is dead, the season's dead, the blog is dead, the season dead.

I hope that many future mets/weather junkies did more learning this season than complain, I know I learned alot and I'm sure many did.
like i keep saying guys the fat lady has sung and the 2009 hurricane season is in the books..6 named storms is all you going to get this year...i tab this season.lows in the 50s are forecast for the north shore this week..ssts in the gom are history..shearis much to strong in the caribbean for anything to develop...thats it guys for 2009..
My blog is updated

The power of rainfall; Tropical Update

I will have the outlook for the remainder of cane season 09 later this week.
weather 456 there wont be much to update man its over the season is officially over guy...you have to gear up for 2010...
Quoting tacoman:
weather 456 there wont be much to update man its over the season is officially over guy...you have to gear up for 2010...


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.
if you say so 456 but like im telling you as sure as GOD made and apple the season is over 6 named storms...thats it...you tell me where will the 7th storm form cant wait to hear this lol...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
@P451

92L i Might understand, due to SSTs.
But 90L was gross negligence IMO (not NHC bashing), people's lives might have been at stake, it should have been named, I know people are going to say 'oh, they should have known bad weather was coming and to be aware so it wouldn't have made a difference if it was named or not' well thats the thing, it would because people will tend to treat it like an afternoon thunderstorm for an unnamed system but a named Tropical Storm, thats a different deal and people prepare, ect.
gross negligence ? come on, be real. if we are talking about whether it should have had a name or not is not gross negligence nor would it have changed anything. All weather agencies recognized its existence as a weather system so we are not talking like there was no knowledge of it being there. This is 2009, not 1899, if people chose to ignore it because the NHC did not give it a name, then they they are the ones that were negligent.
Well, since you all want something to discuss in the blog..how about predicting how much crappy snow I'm probably going to have to deal with this winter? I want to know now how depressed I'm likely to get.
Quoting tacoman:
if you say so 456 but like im telling you as sure as GOD made and apple the season is over 6 named storms...thats it...you tell me where will the 7th storm form cant wait to hear this lol...
IKE, as you wre saying...
where you at grey
Quoting Weather456:


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.


Thank you 456...
I agree with you... its not over, and there is still along ways to go until it is.
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.
Quoting hunkerdown:
gross negligence ? come on, be real. if we are talking about whether it should have had a name or not is not gross negligence nor would it have changed anything. All weather agencies recognized its existence as a weather system so we are not talking like there was no knowledge of it being there. This is 2009, not 1899, if people chose to ignore it because the NHC did not give it a name, then they they are the ones that were negligent.


you gotta point. The system did not have a name but I think it was mentioned in some NWS area discussions. But name does add power and attention to systems.
grey i suggest you get the shovels ready you are in for one record breaking winter man...
Quoting Greyelf:
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.


Do what I do Greywolf... I book a flight to Mexico every January... gives me something to look forward to when the rainy season (occasional Flurries) start here.
Quoting Weather456:


well said. Every single day they post the TWO despite many of us already know where to find it and that we already know the tropics are quiet, just to insistently complain the blog is dead, the season's dead, the blog is dead, the season dead.

I hope that many future mets/weather junkies did more learning this season than complain, I know I learned alot and I'm sure many did.
To Weather 456 and you other presenters of good information and polite explainations - thanks. Yes, you all do provide a learning experience - thanks, again. And I hope no hurricane ever again smashes into inhabited land creating additional human misery.
Quoting TomSal:
To Weather 456 and you other presenters of good information and polite explainations - thanks. Yes, you all do provide a learning experience - thanks, again. And I hope no hurricane ever again smashes into inhabited land creating additional human misery.


I cannot tell you how easier that would make my job. Never having to worry about the human cost of these disasters. But Jim Cantore once said, if you like to track TCs but they do immense damage to life/property. Even though its not your fault, always help out, that much you owe them.

And a perfect example was Ivan on our neighbor to the south - Grenada.
ill recant my post 456 ...the season is over for the united states there is still a slim chance we could squeeze out 1 more storm but that would only threaten the winward islands jamaica and central america...we are through with the season for the usa...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I book a flight to Mexico every January...

Hm...Maybe that's what I should ask hubby to do for Xmas....
lol greywolf you may just have to do this..bad winter heading your way..
Quoting Greyelf:

Hm...Maybe that's what I should ask hubby to do for Xmas....


It makes SWMBO happy... which makes me happy. I have found that when the SO is not happy... I am seldom allowed to be happy.
Oh well, not entirely surprising. Was unusually easy last winter. Figured we had it must have been saving up.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy from last night
I just hope it waits long enough for the trick or treaters. It always sucks when it's miserable for them.
Quoting Weather456:
P451,

I agree with you 100%. I'm less confident that the NJ low was Grace, but I'm sure confident that 92L was a subtropical cyclone. They stated no reasons but SST in their outlook and even admit 92L was better organize. The MODIS shots of 92L were unbelievable.

Another thing was 90L, they scheduled a 2PM aircraft reccon to 90L but 90L was forecast by them to make landfall at 8am, which it did. Where's the logic?

PS: I'm not bashing the NHC but just stating my views on the matter.


Recon was scheduled for 1600Z (noon) and they never forecast an 8 AM landfall. Forecasts were for the low to be near 30N 89W at 1800Z on the 23rd.

Quoting Weather456:


lol, well I have to disagree with you since the season is not over but most importantly my blog updates will not stop on November 30. There's lots to discuss out there.


Yes 456 "There's lots to discuss out there" and you have been doing a great job on putting some interesting items on you blog. Keep up the good work.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Recon was scheduled for 1600Z (noon) and they never forecast an 8 AM landfall. Forecasts were for the low to be near 30N 89W at 1800Z on the 23rd.



that was one forecast, there were forecasts for earlier landfall.
you guys are crying over spilled mile if the nhc didnt name they have a dam good reason why because the low was just that a low just bringing a lot of rain and a little wind...let it go its over guys...you guys are starting to sound like reedzone...i hope he is getting his much needed rest..poor guy..
Quoting Weather456:


that was one forecast, there were forecasts for earlier landfall.


Link?
Quoting tacoman:
you guys are crying over spilled mile if the nhc didnt name they have a dam good reason why because the low was just that a low just bringing a lot of rain and a little wind...let it go its over guys...you guys are starting to sound like reedzone...i hope he is getting his much needed rest..poor guy..


just a healthy discussion
you right 456 its your opinion and you are entitled to it...sorry
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link?


I dont have one, just a piece of the TWO which I bookmarked for reference

THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
Quoting P451:
14-Day SST Loop (ending sep 26)




But wait tacoman said the SSTs in the Gulf are history lol, yet they are still warming up

tacoman needs to learn physics; the GOM temps arent going to magically cool below 80 degrees that fast because of a few cold fronts.
Quoting Weather456:


I dont have one, just a piece of the TWO which I bookmarked for reference

THE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.


That is from the TWO issued at 740 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009. Previous to that the only mentions of the position of the low was in the TWDs, the previous TWOs only gave a general "onshore on Saturday" with no specific time.

I do not question you disagreeing with the NHCs planning or actions, just that it be based on the factual record.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That is from the TWO issued at 740 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2009. Previous to that the only mentions of the position of the low was in the TWDs, the previous TWOs only gave a general "onshore on Saturday" with no specific time.

I do not question you disagreeing with the NHCs planning or actions, just that it be based on the factual record.


it is....regardless of whether there was specific time or not, the recon was schedule too late. In that data you presented, the reccon was schedule 2 hours before 1800Z position, given that the storm was peaking much earlier.
Quoting Weather456:


just a healthy discussion


Just ignore Tacoman, he's a troll..
Quoting Weather456:


it is


Your premise was why did they schedule recon for 2 PM (it was scheduled for a noon fix with the aircraft on location at 11 AM) when they forecast landfall at 8 AM (the only specific forecasts were from the TWDs and they had a 30N 89W location at 1800Z) so it was not.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Your premise was why did they schedule recon for 2 PM (it was scheduled for a noon fix with the aircraft on location at 11 AM) when they forecast landfall at 8 AM (the only specific forecasts were from the TWDs and they had a 30N 89W location at 1800Z) so it was not.


read my post again, whether or not the specific time was correct or not my premise was that they schedule the reccon too late. The storm was expected to make landfall much sooner than the reccon.
Quoting Weather456:


read my post again, whether or not the specific time was correct or not my premise was that they schedule the reccon too late.


They have to schedule recon the day before and their thinking at the time of scheduling recon was the system would still be offshore.

Now if you are questioning why they did not schedule recon in previous days that is valid and all I can say is that is their judgment, but to say their thinking was not logical by scheduling recon after forecast landfall is not factually correct.
Well Weather456 got a point, there is no way looking at the storm position to land at 2am that it would reach land by 1800Z. That's illogical. The reccon was to be sent near 5am. Tpp much technaicalities with that agency.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Well Weather456 got a point, there is no way looking at the storm position to land at 2am that it would reach land by 1800Z. That's illogical. The reccon was to be sent near 5am. Tpp much technaicalities with that agency.


case n' point
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They have to schedule recon the day before and their thinking at the time of scheduling recon was the system would still be offshore.

Now if you are questioning why they did not schedule recon in previous days that is valid and all I can say is that is their judgment, but to say their thinking was not logical by scheduling recon after forecast landfall is not factually correct.


Ok I guess we have to agree t disagree I do see your point but my view still remain, they should of seen there is no way where the storm was at 2am it could of made landfall at the given time.
Quoting Greyelf:
I'm in Bellevue (basically Omaha), Nebraska. I'm already getting depressed that I need to consider garaging the convertible for the winter.


And here I am waiting for a cold front so I can actually enjoy a ride in the Jeep again. Maybe even take the bikini top off again.
Quoting PcolaDan:


And here I am waiting for a cold front so I can actually enjoy a ride in the Jeep again. Maybe even take the bikini top off again.


thats just mean..
Remaining thankful and optimistic in the Western Caribbean.
Just got back and I see we are having a nice healthy discussion....

Hey Orca, does it get really cold where you are at? I know from this summer it gets really hot.
679. IKE
NEW BLOG!
I have been a resident of 9 Florida cities and endured; Donna, Betsy, Inez, Isabel,Charlie, Frances, Jeanne, Erin, Opal, Cleo, Dawn and the "not a an offical storm system" this year in May. I am so relieved not to have added any more names to that list the remaider of this summer! I hope I can finish the season with no additions, just like to track!!!