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Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good Sunday morning to all... I'm now rooting for no hurricanes before Sept 10, so we can have at least one notable record this year that doesn't injure anybody... lol

Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week.


Geez, Doc.... you make it sound like even the computer models are bored by this season... lol...

1004. Bruzote
BlueStorm - Moderation of opinion on a blog filled with smart participants might be wise. Consider that Tom's "facts" that you speak of are a single map and a 'premature' interpretation. First, the map covers ASO, not A+1/2S. We can't use the map to correlate a current drought in Brazil with *future* cumulative ACE. You don't know if Brazil will have cumulative drought throughout ASO. Second, this is one source of input. As ANY scientist worth his salt knows, we can get conflicting forecasts when we use different sources. You might just as easily find another correlation between current conditions and low ASO ACE. The real scientist understands how to integrate all available sources and form a coherent story from them. Tom's map and his accompanying statement are not a coherent integrative story. They represent a logical fallacy and only a single source.
Mikatnight....love the Dexter updates!
Quoting 994. unknowncomic:
I would say if Brazil was wet in 2004-2005 there would be a bigger correlation there.
If memory serves me correctly a lot of places were wet in south america in 2010.Some places broke records and that year the cape verde season was one of the biggest.Coupled with above average sst in the Atlantic.
Hey Mother Nature,
what are you waiting for to send us nice, big, real Hurricane over the caribbean??? It's time now, enough of this boring 2013 season!
Sorry.Couldn't here you guys due to someones egotistical post.They're spamming the blog.Mods..
Quoting 1004. Bruzote:
BlueStorm - Moderation of opinion on a blog filled with smart participants might be wise. Consider that Tom's "facts" that you speak of are a single map and a 'premature' interpretation. First, the map covers ASO, not A+1/2S. We can't use the map to correlate a current drought in Brazil with *future* cumulative ACE. You don't know if Brazil will have cumulative drought throughout ASO. Second, this is one source of input. As ANY scientist worth his salt knows, we can get conflicting forecasts when we use different sources. You might just as easily find another correlation between current conditions and low ASO ACE. The real scientist understands how to integrate all available sources and form a coherent story from them. Tom's map and his accompanying statement are not a coherent integrative story. They represent a logical fallacy and only a single source.
Sounds from your description like a speculative [hypothesis] which would need greater analysis and study.

But I didn't read the original post, so I'm reserving further comment.
Quoting 1010. washingtonian115:
Sorry.Couldn't here you guys due to someones egotistical post.They're spamming the blog.Mods..


You should have been here yesterday.
LOl.The one with no life is the one spamming/trolling a weather blog out of all the blogs on the internet to troll.A weather blog for pete sake?.Lol.

FunnelVortex Tell me the details over at my blog.Just click on my name.
I think we have 09L.
Quoting 1002. 3monthslaterandwell:
now listen to me next year for gods sakes and save yourself alot of time and energy wishing and watching the weather.... ill be back next year around may 28th to give my full tropical forcast again for 2014
I hope he doesn't jinx us; actually I think he is secretly mad that he did not get a hurricane in his yard!
1009. 3monthslaterandwell Sir can u please stop we get it.
Quoting 1015. washingtonian115:
LOl.The one with no life is the one spamming/trolling a weather blog out of all the blogs on the internet to troll.A weather blog for pete sake?.Lol.


Trolls are everywhere on the net. They are not just bound to DeviantART, Facebook, YouTube, or Tumblr. They are here too.

Sometimes trolling here gets so bad, I wonder if someone opened a direct portal from YouTube to Wunderground.
Quoting 1020. FunnelVortex:


Trolls are everywhere on the net. They are not just bound to DeviantART, Facebook, YouTube, or Tumblr. They are here too.

Sometimes trolling here gets so bad, I wonder if someone opened a direct portal from YouTube to Wunderground.
yep trolls are everywhere and it sucks that this troll hit the season bust forcast right on the head ...... it hurts to be wrong and a troll to be right
Quoting 854. TylerStanfield:

Yes, but take into account that typical active seasons have the ITCZ displaced to the north, creating the active wave-train, which would be why Northern brazil would be so dry. But the past 4 season have had this displacement to the North which has resulted in a extreme drought for Brazil. Though the low-level flow aloft may not support it, Brazil could be doing to the Central Atlantic exactly what Texas did to the Western Gulf of Mexico in 2011. I'm not saying it is, but it is a possibility.
The difference with the drought over Texas is Texas had a subtropical "death ridge" parked over the state creating subsidence on the backside of the high...not the same situation for Brazil.

Weather follower from the 25sq mile Island of Bermuda here. On the 5th of Sept, 10 years ago we remembered Hurricane Fabian where Bermuda took a direct hit from the Cat 3 storm and 4 people lost their lives.

On Friday, September 5th, 2003, Fabian came within 50 miles to the West of Bermuda. Just as close as a direct hit as you can get. Wind gusts increased by the hour on the island until at about 3 PM EDT when reports came from the island of 117 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 127 mph. Sustained winds would be in the area of 120 mph with gusts up to 130 mph as the main radio tower at the island's central radio station was toppled.

Good thing we build our homes out of solid stone and reinforced concrete.

Some great pictures of the aftermath which left some people without power for close to a month.

http://www.royalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/tngalle ry?Site=RG&Date=20130905&Category=NEWS&ArtNo=90500 9999&Ref=PH

Quoting 1022. 3monthslaterandwell:
yep trolls are everywhere and it sucks that this troll hit the season bust forcast right on the head ...... it hurts to be wrong and a troll to be right


You should have seen what happened yesterday. lol.
1026. will40
FunnelVortex

still feeding them i see
Did I just see a troll respond to himself to make it look like someone agrees with him?
Quit feeding the troll, please. Report, ignore, and move on!
Quoting 1004. Bruzote:
BlueStorm - Moderation of opinion on a blog filled with smart participants might be wise. Consider that Tom's "facts" that you speak of are a single map and a 'premature' interpretation. First, the map covers ASO, not A+1/2S. We can't use the map to correlate a current drought in Brazil with *future* cumulative ACE. You don't know if Brazil will have cumulative drought throughout ASO. Second, this is one source of input. As ANY scientist worth his salt knows, we can get conflicting forecasts when we use different sources. You might just as easily find another correlation between current conditions and low ASO ACE. The real scientist understands how to integrate all available sources and form a coherent story from them. Tom's map and his accompanying statement are not a coherent integrative story. They represent a logical fallacy and only a single source.
August with top 10 ACE years doesn't look any different. Still a clear drought over Brazil. Northern South America is slightly above average, but the continent as a whole is dry.

Quoting 1027. CybrTeddy:
Did I just see a troll respond to himself to make himself look like someone agrees with him?
Your eyes did not fool you.I ROFLMAO so hard at that I nearly fell out of a chair.
5PM EDT seems realistic for a first advisory on 91L. It has a chance at eventually becoming a hurricane but probably not a significant one. Either way, I'd say the odds it becomes a hurricane before the record deadline are only about 10-20%.

1036. beell
what a bunch of dumb asses here this morning.

Most of them-long time members who should know better.
1037. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Did I just see a troll respond to himself to make it look like someone agrees with him?

LOL. Yes, you did. The amazing thing is I can get a 24 hour ban by looking cross-eyed but this goofball is allowed to continue to post.
1038. sar2401
Quoting beell:
what a bunch of dumbasses here this morning.

Wait a minute.....:-)
Anyone got any rational thoughts on Invest 92? ex Gabby.
1041. Siker
This is fun, making Sunday morning much more lively!
Quoting 844. yoboi:


You forgot to throw Dr Masters under the bus also.....since you seem to think you are the super forecaster have you thought about creating your own website?????
What?

Since when did proving someone wrong make you better than everyone? Many on this blog are apparently incapable of being wrong. All I'm doing here is plotting data, it's not my fault it disagrees with the hypothesis of others. I thought you all would appreciate me taking the effort to report to you the actual reality of the situation. Yet it seems like when I disagree with Grothar and Lee all I get is negative responses.
beell
what a bunch of dumb....

Who's the bunch?.Because I only see one..
Quoting 1015. washingtonian115:
LOl.The one with no life is the one spamming/trolling a weather blog out of all the blogs on the internet to troll.A weather blog for pete sake?.Lol.

FunnelVortex Tell me the details over at my blog.Just click on my name.
If it was anything like our friend here, I don't think we missed much...

Meanwwhile, here's what our wx has typically been like the last while... hot during the day with clouds building most afternoons and severe 10-minute showers...



What is the difference between - and hide?
I'm hesitant to ignore this guy. He's freaking hilarious. He thinks he's a genius weather forecaster, just because of dumb luck, he was right about the season being a forecast "bust". (Season is not over yet, mind you) XD

Anyways, back to the tropics.
Quoting 1042. 3monthslaterandwell:
ok im leaving this time until next year may 28th 2014


You are looking for attention the wrong way. Anyway, Good luck and good riddance.
1049. will40
Quoting 1046. MelbourneTom:
What is the difference between - and hide?


with _ you dont see it on a refresh
Good morning from Central OK,

The forecast here remains the same, unfortunately it has been extended out to the end of the week. Hot, hot, hot - with temps at or just below 100. Seems like summer - which had gone on vacation - now does not want to leave.

On the downside, we are probably going to go 30 days without any appreciable rain, and local mets are expressing that the upcoming winter fire season may be something to be concerned about. Its not only how much rain falls, but when.

See that, for some unknown reason, those desperate for attention feel compelled to try and get some . . . lets try not to feed the insecurity so obviously on display.

A busy day today - 91L looks like it'll spin up, and Gabby still is threatening to do . . .

. . . . nothing - but making it look interesting anyways. With the exception that the Virgin Islands definitely do not need any more rain just now.

I have posted a question on my blog that asks those remaining unconvinced of AGW whether any amount of evidence over what amount of time would be convincing. Please leave your comments there, or WU mail me. Your participation is appreciated.

And for the first time in a long time I made breakfast - Thanks AI!

A happy and fun Sunday to all!
Quoting 1024. DevilsIsles:

Weather follower from the 25sq mile Island of Bermuda here. On the 5th of Sept, 10 years ago we remembered Hurricane Fabian where Bermuda took a direct hit from the Cat 3 storm and 4 people lost their lives.

On Friday, September 5th, 2003, Fabian came within 50 miles to the West of Bermuda. Just as close as a direct hit as you can get. Wind gusts increased by the hour on the island until at about 3 PM EDT when reports came from the island of 117 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 127 mph. Sustained winds would be in the area of 120 mph with gusts up to 130 mph as the main radio tower at the island's central radio station was toppled.

Good thing we build our homes out of solid stone and reinforced concrete.

Some great pictures of the aftermath which left some people without power for close to a month.

http://www.royalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/tngalle ry?Site=RG&Date=20130905&Category=NEWS& ;ArtNo=90500 9999&Ref=PH



When you go to the link, the following message is displayed

We will have our archive up shortly, but for stories that you have bookmarked, the links will no longer work.
Quoting 995. SLU:
Looking at the latest EURO, it seems unlikely that 91L will ever become a hurricane. The EURO opens it into a wave by 120hrs and carries it westwards along 25N before it gets incinerated in the CATL graveyard.



BUST
Jeep Top down weather today on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Yayy!!
might of been luck but the vulture was right
1055. sar2401
Quoting DevilsIsles:

Weather follower from the 25sq mile Island of Bermuda here. On the 5th of Sept, 10 years ago we remembered Hurricane Fabian where Bermuda took a direct hit from the Cat 3 storm and 4 people lost their lives.

On Friday, September 5th, 2003, Fabian came within 50 miles to the West of Bermuda. Just as close as a direct hit as you can get. Wind gusts increased by the hour on the island until at about 3 PM EDT when reports came from the island of 117 mph sustained winds with gusts up to 127 mph. Sustained winds would be in the area of 120 mph with gusts up to 130 mph as the main radio tower at the island's central radio station was toppled.

Good thing we build our homes out of solid stone and reinforced concrete.

Some great pictures of the aftermath which left some people without power for close to a month.

http://www.royalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/tngalle ry?Site=RG&Date=20130905&Category=NEWS& ;ArtNo=90500 9999&Ref=PH


I remember Fabian well, wondering how close a storm could come to a tiny island in the middle of the Atlantic. Thank goodness for the construction standards there.

I've only been to Bermuda a few times but loved it. It was like going to London, except it was warm and all the buildings weren't gray You'll have to keep an eye on 92L, but I think it will die long before it gets to Bermuda. Until then, stay calm and carry on. :-)
Quoting 1015. washingtonian115:
LOl.The one with no life is the one spamming/trolling a weather blog out of all the blogs on the internet to troll.A weather blog for pete sake?.Lol.

FunnelVortex Tell me the details over at my blog.Just click on my name.


Done.
I lived in Corpus Chriti and San Antonio for many years.
Almost every year we were either experiencing drought conditions or excessive rainfall (flooding).
That's seems to be the pattern for central Texas.
Texas Precipitation map
Still wouldn't count off ex gabby

1059. sar2401
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
Jeep Top down weather today on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Yayy!!

Very nice. Unfortunately, it's already 91 with a dewpoint of 73 here in SE Alabama, heading for a high of 99, with nary a cloud in the sky. If you had the top down here, you'd get a visit to our fine local hospital for heat stroke. :-)
1060. GatorWX
Quoting 1043. TomTaylor:
What?

Since when did proving someone wrong make you better than everyone? Many on this blog are apparently incapable of being wrong. All I'm doing here is plotting data, it's not my fault it disagrees with the hypothesis of others. I thought you all would appreciate me taking the effort to report to you the actual reality of the situation. Yet it seems like when I disagree with Grothar and Lee all I get is negative responses.


Perhaps it's your approach. Just saying. I take everyone's thoughts into consideration, but when one comes across as certain, I tend to get drawn away. I won't speak for others and I'm not saying your right or wrong, but it may be a reason people tend to come at you.

Anyway,




Why hasn't 91L been designated yet?
Hazy hot and humid morning on Fort Myers Beach. I believe that's an alliteration?
Looking south from Ft. Myers Beach.
Quoting 1059. sar2401:

Very nice. Unfortunately, it's already 91 with a dewpoint of 73 here in SE Alabama, heading for a high of 99, with nary a cloud in the sky. If you had the top down here, you'd get a visit to our fine local hospital for heat stroke. :-)
It's really not so bad here by comparison... humid as all get-out, but this morning I drove into town with the windows down... not something one can usually do on 8th Sept. in Nassau.... lol

I'm out for a while. I'll check in later to see if there's even the slightest chance we won't break the record... ;o)
1064. SLU
Quoting 1034. MAweatherboy1:
5PM EDT seems realistic for a first advisory on 91L. It has a chance at eventually becoming a hurricane but probably not a significant one. Either way, I'd say the odds it becomes a hurricane before the record deadline are only about 10-20%.



Satellite classifications from SAB at 12z were 1.0. This system is nowhere near TD status yet unless a rapid rate of organisation occurs today. It may take another 18 - 36 hrs before it consolidates enough to be renumbered.
1065. Dakster
Quoting 1053. CaneHunter031472:
Jeep Top down weather today on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Yayy!!


I always enjoy/ed topless days on the beach.
1066. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


When you go to the link, the following message is displayed

We will have our archive up shortly, but for stories that you have bookmarked, the links will no longer work.

Try this page as a starting point for a bunch of stories about Fabian. It appears that WU/TWC Yakuzas have been subbing out to the Royal Gazette, hence everything looks pretty but nothing works. :-)
1067. SLU
Quoting 1052. CaribBoy:


BUST


The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season for the next 10 days and probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.
Quoting 1062. Sfloridacat5:
Hazy hot and humid morning on Fort Myers Beach (I believe that's an alliteration.
You r correct...
Quoting 1067. SLU:


The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season, probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.
Wasn't the Euro the 1 forecasting el nino conditions???

Quoting 1067. SLU:


The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season, probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.


We have to watch the BOC, Carribean, and GOM.

Because the deadliest storms can often form close to home.
1071. SLU
Quoting 1067. SLU:



The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season for the next 10 days and probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.


Here's why:

1072. Patrap
1073. SLU
Quoting 1069. BahaHurican:
Wasn't the Euro the 1 forecasting el nino conditions???



Yes it did. One thing about the EURO was that it was never really enthusiastic about this season unlike some of the other seasonal models.
1074. Dakster
Quoting 1070. FunnelVortex:


We have to watch the BOC, Carribean, and GOM.

Because the deadliest storms can often form close to home.


And the CV season should be shutting down shortly. What I don't like about the ones close to home is the lack of warning. But you still get more warning than an Earthquake - so I'll take what I can get.
Quoting 1067. SLU:


The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season for the next 10 days and probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.


When has the Euro ever really strengthened anything this season, in any basin? It royally screwed up on Utor. You're looking at one run of the Euro vs. all the others and taking that at face value.
Quoting 1050. daddyjames:
. . . nothing - but making it look interesting anyways. With the exception that the Virgin Islands definitely do not need any more rain just now!


I mentioned earlier that we woke up to a t'storm and more rain but....

OMG...the sun just came out for the first time since Wed afternoon!

Lindy
1077. SLU
Quoting 1070. FunnelVortex:


We have to watch the BOC, Carribean, and GOM.

Because the deadliest storms can often form close to home.


Yes they can. The pattern favoured a busy Cape Verde season though ....
1078. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's really not so bad here by comparison... humid as all get-out, but this morning I drove into town with the windows down... not something one can usually do on 8th Sept. in Nassau.... lol

I'm out for a while. I'll check in later to see if there's even the slightest chance we won't break the record... ;o)

We actually had a low of 68 at 0610. It was already 85 by 0700. We don't fool around when it comes to heat here.

There is absolutely zero chance that we won't break the latest hurricane record. Well, let me put that another way. There's absolutely zero chance we won't break the record unless the NHC declares a hurricane in the last hours before the record. If that happens, Taco and I already have a plan to go to Miami and shoot all the computers to preserve our record. :-)
1079. Dakster
Quoting 1062. Sfloridacat5:
Hazy hot and humid morning on Fort Myers Beach. I believe that's an alliteration?
Looking south from Ft. Myers Beach.


It's Hot, Hazy, Humid Here too.
Quoting 1073. SLU:


Yes it did. One thing about the EURO was that it was never really enthusiastic about this season unlike some of the other seasonal models.


The season ended up being inactive for totally different reasons than the Euro was showing, and because of that the Euro forecast busted. It showed a below average MSLP across the Atlantic with a potent El Nino developing, neither of which occurred.
Quoting 1073. SLU:


Yes it did. One thing about the EURO was that it was never really enthusiastic about this season unlike some of the other seasonal models.
So we didn't get the actual el nino, but everything else about conditions in the basin seems to suggest we did....

I think this is going to be an interest year for study post season...

Really gone now... it's 11 a.m... lol
And to be fair, this still is the strongest the ECMWF has shown in our basin in a long time.
Quoting 1079. Dakster:


It's Hot, Hazy, Humid Here too.


Dank, drizzly and dreich here in Scotland.
Quoting 1070. FunnelVortex:


We have to watch the BOC, Carribean, and GOM.

Because the deadliest storms can often form close to home.


CV season will quickly come to an end (what CV season many might say).
The S/SW Caribbean and BOC have been producing low pressure after low pressure. In a few weeks, these low pressure systems will stall out, move slowly, and start to move in a northly direction.
That's when the season gets interesting.

CV season - just didn't materialize this year
But Western Caribbean season - getting ready to start up.
1085. sar2401
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We have to watch the BOC, Carribean, and GOM.

Because the deadliest storms can often form close to home.

Don't forget Lake Superior and that giant lake they've got in Texas. You can never tell with this season. :-)
1086. Dakster
Quoting 1083. yonzabam:


Dank, drizzly and dreich here in Scotland.


Sounds like all is normal in the world then.
Quoting 1085. sar2401:

Don't forget Lake Superior and that giant lake they've got in Texas. You can never tell with this season. :-)


Maybe that's not so far fetched. lol.

1089. GatorWX
Quoting 1084. Sfloridacat5:


CV season will quickly come to an end (what CV season many might say).
The S/SW Caribbean and BOC have been producing low pressure after low pressure. In a few weeks, these low pressure systems will stall out, move slowly, and start to move in a northly direction.
That's when the season gets interesting.

CV season - just didn't materialize this year
But Western Caribbean season - getting ready to start up.


Ding ding! I feel that could be the case too. Been a lot of moisture there all season long, just nothing besides troughs to take advantage of it. Warm out there I might add.

1090. SLU
Quoting 1075. CybrTeddy:


When has the Euro ever really strengthened anything this season, in any basin? It royally screwed up on Utor. You're looking at one run of the Euro vs. all the others and taking that at face value.


The GFS also gradually weakens the circulation along 25 north by day 6 through day 8. The EURO and the GFS are the two best models we have as you know. If the NHC was to issue a forecast for this system now (hypothetically speaking) they would tread on the conservative side given the trends on the latest runs of our two best models even if the SHIP and LGEM call for a strong hurricane .. especially after they both busted with Gabrielle.

144hrs



192hrs

Invest 91L has impressive banding and a well-defined center of circulation. An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the center should push it to tropical depression status.
1092. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


CV season will quickly come to an end (what CV season many might say).
The S/SW Caribbean and BOC have been producing low pressure after low pressure. In a few weeks, these low pressure systems will stall out, move slowly, and start to move in a northly direction.
That's when the season gets interesting.

CV season - just didn't materialize this year
But Western Caribbean season - getting ready to start up.

I don't know. The local mets are all excited about a strong cold front that will drag lots of cold and dry air south and east this weekend. If it actually comes true, the high is supposed to be 80 and the low 63 on Monday, which is like slightly above freezing to y'all up north. This front should get out in the Gulf a considerable distance. If it's really going to have this much dry air. the only chance we have is a tail-ender on the front, and that doesn't look too likely.
Quoting 1077. SLU:


Yes they can. The pattern favoured a busy Cape Verde season though ....


If I'm not mistaken, Sandy was not a cape-verde. Was she?
Quoting 1090. SLU:


The GFS also gradually weakens the circulation along 25 north by day 6 through day 8. The EURO and the GFS are the two best models we have as you know. If the NHC was to issue a forecast for this system now (hypothetically speaking) they would tread on the conservative side given the trends on the latest runs of our two best models even if the SHIP and LGEM call for a strong hurricane .. especially after they both busted with Gabrielle.

144hrs



192hrs


It will enter cooler waters and a stable atmosphere by day 6. In the meantime, that doesn't mean it can't become a hurricane before that time.

@MJVentrice
European model intensifies 91L into just a strong TS on 9/11- GFS shows hurricane chances by 9/11. Will be a close one...
Quoting 1090. SLU:


The GFS also gradually weakens the circulation along 25 north by day 6 through day 8. The EURO and the GFS are the two best models we have as you know. If the NHC was to issue a forecast for this system now (hypothetically speaking) they would tread on the conservative side given the trends on the latest runs of our two best models even if the SHIP and LGEM call for a strong hurricane .. especially after they both busted with Gabrielle.

144hrs



192hrs



Because it's going to gradually weaken once it hits peak, as it's going to end up over cooler water. However, the GFS, unlike the ECMWF does show it becoming a hurricane for a brief period of time. If the SHIPS and LGEM are still both calling for a powerful hurricane to develop then you can probably bet the NHC's advisory will be similar with intensity.
1096. SLU
Quoting 1081. BahaHurican:
So we didn't get the actual el nino, but everything else about conditions in the basin seems to suggest we did....

I think this is going to be an interest year for study post season...

Really gone now... it's 11 a.m... lol


Yes it needs to be studied thoroughly

Quoting 1080. CybrTeddy:


The season ended up being inactive for totally different reasons than the Euro was showing, and because of that the Euro forecast busted. It showed a below average MSLP across the Atlantic with a potent El Nino developing, neither of which occurred.


Yes the EURO got the actual conditions wrong but the season is almost behaving like there's an El Nino as well as high pressures. The mixed signals indicated by the EURO showed a lack of enthusiasm with the season and that has been the case so far even if it got the actual setup incorrect.
If the Climate Prediction Center is to be believed--and why wouldn't they be?--any true cold fronts are still a ways off. In fact, with the exceptiin of the mid-Atlantic states, the 6-10 day outlook looks pretty toasty--and the 8-14 day outloook even more so:

cpc

cpc
1098. SLU
Quoting 1095. CybrTeddy:


Because it's going to gradually weaken once it hits peak, as it's going to end up over cooler water. However, the GFS, unlike the ECMWF does show it becoming a hurricane for a brief period of time. If the SHIPS and LGEM are still both calling for a powerful hurricane to develop then you can probably bet the NHC's advisory will be similar with intensity.


Quoting 1094. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will enter cooler waters and a stable atmosphere by day 6. In the meantime, that doesn't mean it can't become a hurricane before that time.

@MJVentrice
European model intensifies 91L into just a strong TS on 9/11- GFS shows hurricane chances by 9/11. Will be a close one...


For this to become a hurricane it will have to do so in 96 hrs or less. Let's see how it goes.
Quoting 1084. Sfloridacat5:


CV season will quickly come to an end (what CV season many might say).
The S/SW Caribbean and BOC have been producing low pressure after low pressure. In a few weeks, these low pressure systems will stall out, move slowly, and start to move in a northly direction.
That's when the season gets interesting.

CV season - just didn't materialize this year
But Western Caribbean season - getting ready to start up.
I tend to agree, the heat will have to focus somewhere else in the Atlantic and the Western Caribbean is where it will be. October is a very favorable month for development, statistically speaking in the Western Caribbean, it also puts Florida and the Northern Gulf Coast at an increase risk, especially the West Coast of FL.
Quoting 1085. sar2401:

Don't forget Lake Superior and that giant lake they've got in Texas. You can never tell with this season. :-)


Huh?
Quoting 1087. CaicosRetiredSailor:
How much does a hurricane weigh?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Hhz8mn4x3Q&fe atur e=youtube_gdata_player



So the next time a hurricane hits, I'm going to worry about blue whales falling from the sky now! ;)

Lindy
Quoting 1097. Neapolitan:
If the Climate Prediction Center is to be believed--and why wouldn't they be?--any true cold fronts are still a ways off. In fact, with the exceptiin of the mid-Atlantic states, the 6-10 day outlook looks pretty toasty--and the 8-14 day outloook even more so:

cpc

cpc


Great, another overly warm winter for Florida. I'm calling it now, it'll be in the 80s in December, and I'll probably have a massive fever sometime soon from what will almost guaranteed be another bad flu season.
Quoting 1090. SLU:


The GFS also gradually weakens the circulation along 25 north by day 6 through day 8. The EURO and the GFS are the two best models we have as you know. If the NHC was to issue a forecast for this system now (hypothetically speaking) they would tread on the conservative side given the trends on the latest runs of our two best models even if the SHIP and LGEM call for a strong hurricane .. especially after they both busted with Gabrielle.

144hrs



192hrs



Thanks for the blog....

Nice info... Thanks SLU
1104. SLU
.. might come close but time is extremely limited.

Quoting 1090. SLU:


The GFS also gradually weakens the circulation along 25 north by day 6 through day 8. The EURO and the GFS are the two best models we have as you know. If the NHC was to issue a forecast for this system now (hypothetically speaking) they would tread on the conservative side given the trends on the latest runs of our two best models even if the SHIP and LGEM call for a strong hurricane .. especially after they both busted with Gabrielle.

144hrs



192hrs

Making that long trek across the Atlantic will be getting tougher and tougher, as the next big trough looks like Sept. 18th. However, weak systems or low riders still have a chance to make it all the way. I think October will be the busiest month of the whole season at this point.
Quoting 1083. yonzabam:


Dank, drizzly and dreich here in Scotland.
A usual day I see yonz....Lived in Edinburgh until I was 6 years old...Try to make a visit every few years...Many of my family is still there (on my Mom's side RIP)
SLU as far as I am concern made a good analysis of the performance of the EURO this season. Earlier last week I made the same pronouncements. he models this year failed miserably. maybe we must try the LUCIAN model. That model is looking at development with the AREA south of 98L, near 9N 43W. this could become 93L
1108. SLU
Quoting 1103. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Thanks for the blog....

Nice info... Thanks SLU


Can you repost the chart with the WU community's 2013 season predictions?
Quoting 836. Naga5000:
On the Brazil note, the only thing I could find is this paper from 2008 Link that notes an abnormally northern displacement on the ITCZ is associated with drought in North Eastern Brazil and a Southern displacement of the ITCZ is associated with wetter than average conditions in North Eastern Brazil. It seems the placement of the ITCZ is the driver on the rainfall patterns over the area of Brazil affected by drought.

This is all I have found so far.
So the placement of the ITCZ. Reminds me of that song form the 1980's, "One thing leads to another." Could be something above human understanding.
Quoting 1092. sar2401:

I don't know. The local mets are all excited about a strong cold front that will drag lots of cold and dry air south and east this weekend. If it actually comes true, the high is supposed to be 80 and the low 63 on Monday, which is like slightly above freezing to y'all up north. This front should get out in the Gulf a considerable distance. If it's really going to have this much dry air. the only chance we have is a tail-ender on the front, and that doesn't look too likely.


Hurricane Wilma formed in the western carribean with strong cold fronts diving down the East coast and GOM.
This (strong cold front pushing off shore into the GOM) will basically shut down the season for Texas, but could aid in the development of systems affecting Florida.
Frequently shown map - strong cold fronts just prior to hurricane Wilma.
1111. SLU
Quoting 1105. unknowncomic:
Making that long trek across the Atlantic will be getting tougher and tougher, as the next big trough looks like Sept. 18th. However, weak systems or low riders still have a chance to make it all the way. I think October will be the busiest month of the whole season at this point.


Yes I agree. October might carry the most weight this year mainly in the western Caribbean and the Gulf but the Cape Verde season will probably shut down after 91L or soon thereafter.
Quoting 1111. SLU:


Yes I agree. October might carry the most weight this year mainly in the western Caribbean and the Gulf but the Cape Verde season will probably shut down after 91L or soon thereafter.
September 10 has been the peak day for years....I would say late September if I had my say.
1113. SLU
Quoting 1107. stoormfury:
SLU as far as I am concern made a good analysis of the performance of the EURO this season. Earlier last week I made the same pronouncements. he models this year failed miserably. maybe we must try the LUCIAN model. That model is looking at development with the AREA south of 98L, near 9N 43W. this could become 93L


I think both man and model have fail this year. That's why we need to study 2013 thoroughly.
Quoting 1108. SLU:


Can you repost the chart with the WU community's 2013 season predictions?


Sure... Let me find it
I was curious, does anyone know if the information about the drought in Brazil, such as that referenced in Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues",  was included in the Hurricane forecast for the 2013 Atlantic season? It seems like, if it was, that the season prediction would have been lower than it was and more in line with the season we are experiencing. I know that a lot of information is utilized to make these predictions so I just wondered if this was included and was it a factor? I would then consider that, if it was factored in than the direct impact on the season was not very significant and, if it wasn't a factor than the scientists have decided that there is not any direct correlation or evidence that it is having any influence on tropical development in the Atlantic at all. 
Quoting 1114. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Sure... Let me find it
Max!... Good to hear from you buddy
1117. sar2401
Quoting SLU:
.. might come close but time is extremely limited.


The LGEM and SHIPS have been blowing intensity forecasts all season. I don't think the LGEM had one invest that it didn't forecast to make hurricane status. Both forecast Gabby to get to cat 2! Seriously, if these two models were a product customers had to buy, about how many sales do you think they'd have this year? How many models do we have now? 20? 25? Maybe it's time for some kind of science summit, pick out the top five, and work on improving them, instead of just churning out more blown models.
The Rim Fire in California has now grown to 253,232 acres, or nearly 396 square miles. Now just 20,000 acres--a bit over 31 square miles--separate the Rim Fire from the 2003 Cedar fire, which (for now) is the largest fire in the state's history. The fire is still at 80% containment, where it's remained for several days. Acccording to Inciweb, around 2500 or so structures remain under threat.

The peak of California's fire season is generally September and October.
Quoting 1067. SLU:


The EURO also pulls the plug on the Cape Verde season for the next 10 days and probably for the rest of the year. What a shame.


Can't be more depressed.
this is vary vary EL nino like step up here UPPER-LEVEL winds are not vary CONDUCIVE out there been like this most of the season


Quoting 1093. FunnelVortex:


If I'm not mistaken, Sandy was not a cape-verde. Was she?


Sandy was an Oct. Western Carribean season storm.
INVEST 92L looking good guys!!
Quoting 1118. Neapolitan:
The Rim Fire in California has now grown to 253,232 acres, or nearly 396 square miles. Now just 20,000 acres--a bit over 31 square miles--separate the Rim Fire from the 2003 Cedar fire, which (for now) is the largest fire in the state's history. The fire is still at 80% containment, where it's remained for several days. Acccording to Inciweb, around 2500 or so structures remain under threat.

The peak of California's fire season is generally September and October.



the Rim fire went up olny a little tooo 253,332 acres


Link

1124. SLU
Quoting 1117. sar2401:

The LGEM and SHIPS have been blowing intensity forecasts all season. I don't think the LGEM had one invest that it didn't forecast to make hurricane status. Both forecast Gabby to get to cat 2! Seriously, if these two models were a product customers had to buy, about how many sales do you think they'd have this year? How many models do we have now? 20? 25? Maybe it's time for some kind of science summit, pick out the top five, and work on improving them, instead of just churning out more blown models.


Well the LGEM has seen better days but it and the SHIPS perform poorly with invests but improve as a TC actually develops.
1125. Dakster
Quoting 1102. CybrTeddy:


Great, another overly warm winter for Florida. I'm calling it now, it'll be in the 80s in December, and I'll probably have a massive fever sometime soon from what will almost guaranteed be another bad flu season.


You are always the voice of optimism.
1126. 47n91w
Quoting sar2401:

Don't forget Lake Superior and that giant lake they've got in Texas. You can never tell with this season. :-)


It was 80 degrees and humid yesterday morning before a lake-breeze from Lake Superior pushed inland around noon. The temp dropped 15 degrees, it started misting, and the NE winds were producing white caps on Chequamegon Bay. It felt brutally cold!

And I didn't feel any warmer knowing it was 88 degrees and sunny inland.

Cold lake breezes are typical in May, June, and early July. The fact that they're still happening in September indicates to me that the Lake is still pretty chilly this summer. Hopefully that means less chances of a Gales of November storm and less lake-effect snow in this coming winter.
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st
Quoting 1125. Dakster:


You are always the voice of optimism.


Hard to not be sometimes..
There may not be any hurricanes this season....just saying...the chances are real this year
1130. Dakster
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.
Quoting 1126. 47n91w:


It was 80 degrees and humid yesterday morning before a lake-breeze from Lake Superior pushed inland around noon. The temp dropped 15 degrees, it started misting, and the NE winds were producing white caps on Chequamegon Bay. It felt brutally cold!

And I didn't feel any warmer knowing it was 88 degrees and sunny inland.

Cold lake breezes are typical in May, June, and early July. The fact that they're still happening in September indicates to me that the Lake is still pretty chilly this summer. Hopefully that means less chances of a Gales of November storm and less lake-effect snow in this coming winter.


I was really suprised the first time I discovered how cold Lake Superior stays during the summer.
It can be 90 degrees 10 miles from the lake and 50 degrees on the lake shore.
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st




we all busted on that forcast lol
1133. Dakster
Quoting 1128. CybrTeddy:


Hard to not be sometimes..


Trust me... I know. I only thought I was the pessimist though. I was looking forward to a nice cool winter this year too. But since that would really help me out it won't happen.
1134. GatorWX
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


That's awesome!
we know invest 92L GOING OUT TO SEA.
Quoting 1102. CybrTeddy:


Great, another overly warm winter for Florida. I'm calling it now, it'll be in the 80s in December, and I'll probably have a massive fever sometime soon from what will almost guaranteed be another bad flu season.


Florida gets the flu? I thought that was only for cold places.

What's worked for me for years: Wash hands with soap.
1137. SLU
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


lol. we are all struggling.
Quoting 1106. PalmBeachWeather:
A usual day I see yonz....Lived in Edinburgh until I was 6 years old...Try to make a visit every few years...Many of my family is still there (on my Mom's side RIP)


The big news from Edinburgh at the moment is that the zoo's giant panda is believed to be pregnant. They've even flown in experts from Memphis, Tennessee, to assist them in confirming the pregnancy. Quite a ballyhoo about it all. Well, it gets the visitors coming in.

Link
1139. mrmombq
Quoting 1112. PalmBeachWeather:
September 10 has been the peak day for years....I would say late September if I had my say.
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st
Astro is the closest so far, followed by Birthmark and AtHome.
1141. 47n91w
Relatively calm today on the south shore of Lake Superior, but a bit chilly with 10:30 temps around 60 degrees with a forecast high in the upper 60s.

From the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore:

1142. hydrus
Quoting 993. washingtonian115:
I do know that in 2005 the rain forest was very dry.In fact one of the driest on record which could explain the lack luster cape verde storm season that year.
Yep..The rest of the basin made up for it in spades. I am wondering if the lack luster Cape Verde season may have some how increased activity throughout the basin, or if it would have been even more active if the the region off Western Africa had produced more storms.
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


I should contribute next year.
Quoting 1134. GatorWX:


That's awesome!


I want you to try it next year... As many else who did not this year
:)
Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?


Logical that it would be later. Maybe the graph needs an update.
Quoting 1130. Dakster:


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.


Unless there is a blogger named "Pakster", I believe that is a spelling mistake for you. I told him about all the spelling mistakes in there, and he still didn't fix them. Sheesh.
trHUrrIXC5MMX
check mail
Yes, this year could be an El Nino in disquise. Or, peak season might be two weeks late this year. One thing that has a big effect that no one can predict is the influence of ULL's. They create shear and they might cause more dry air to infiltrate the MDR.
Quoting 1132. Tazmanian:




we all busted on that forcast lol



Even I busted on my 12,6,3......my new forecast to date is.... 9,2,0
1150. hydrus
Quoting 1141. 47n91w:
Relatively calm today on the south shore of Lake Superior, but a bit chilly with 10:30 temps around 60 degrees.

From the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore:

I was on Lake Superior a lot in 1985...Loved it..Almost killed us tho..
1151. SLU
Looking good

I see 91L is up to 70 and 90 percent. I think this one will be interesting to watch in the coming days.

Quoting 1142. hydrus:
Yep..The rest of the basin made up for it in spades. I am wondering if the lack luster Cape Verde season may have some how increased activity throughout the basin, or if it would have been even more active if the the region off Western Africa had produced more storms.
One thing that seemed different that year was the vortices seemed to line up from 850 mb to 500mb much easier than this year, leading to quicker and stronger development.
Quoting 1146. Astrometeor:


Unless there is a blogger named "Pakster", I believe that is a spelling mistake for you. I told him about all the spelling mistakes in there, and he still didn't fix them. Sheesh.


And it's great to have a messenger ragging you in the ear
Quoting 1149. weatherlover94:



Even I busted on my 12,6,3......my new forecast to date is.... 9,2,0



mine is 8-1-0
1156. Melagoo
Quoting 1152. Hurricane614:
I see 91L is up to 70 and 90 percent. I think this one will be interesting to watch in the coming days.



which way will it go ... which way will it go ... which way will it go ...
Quoting 1117. sar2401:

The LGEM and SHIPS have been blowing intensity forecasts all season. I don't think the LGEM had one invest that it didn't forecast to make hurricane status. Both forecast Gabby to get to cat 2! Seriously, if these two models were a product customers had to buy, about how many sales do you think they'd have this year? How many models do we have now? 20? 25? Maybe it's time for some kind of science summit, pick out the top five, and work on improving them, instead of just churning out more blown models.

That's because the LGEM and SHIPS are only meant to be used after a tropical cyclone has been designated. Historically, the LGEM has been the best statistical intensity model out there.
1158. 62901IL
Quoting 1155. Tazmanian:



mine is 9-1-0

Mine is 8-7-1
1159. GatorWX
Quoting 1144. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I want you to try it next year... As many else who did not this year
:)


Sounds good to me. I don't remember seeing it tossed around. I guess I really wasn't on much early this season. That was assembled July 1st?
Quoting 1158. 62901IL:

Mine is 8-7-1




we are not going too see 7 hurricanes this year or even 1 cat 3 this year you are going too be way off
1161. 62901IL
.
Quoting 1130. Dakster:


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.


Did you tell me before or after July 1st?
Either everyone's predictions will be too high or too low. Those are going to bust too, and be higher than u think. U always underestimate it .
1164. GatorWX
Here's my mid-season forecast then, 12, 3, 1
1165. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hurricane Wilma formed in the western carribean with strong cold fronts diving down the East coast and GOM.
This (strong cold front pushing off shore into the GOM) will basically shut down the season for Texas, but could aid in the development of systems affecting Florida.
Frequently shown map - strong cold fronts just prior to hurricane Wilma.

Yes, I've seen the Wilma/cold front analogy many times, but there was a lot more happening than a cold front. This was 2005, and the Caribbean was like a cauldron of disturbed weather. Wilma formed in Jamaica and was already a cat 5 by the time it got to the Yucatan. There were two ridges to its north that allowed Wilma to meander around the Caribbean and intensify into a large and dangerous storm. One it got into the Gulf after crossing the Yucatan, and survived as a strong cat 2 after two landfalls, then it got interesting. The cold front turned Wilma toward the eastern Gulf and acted like a highway, so it increased forward speed and overcome some significant wind shear. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the cold front in the Gulf was a bit player.

I think the chances of another Wilma (especially this year) are vanishingly low. My concern is another Fernand type storm, a piece of junk on its own, but with the cold front providing just enough energy to pull it away from land and spin it up into a TS or hurricane. If anything is going to come from the Gulf this year, I suspect this will be the approximate scenario. In 2005, we just sat here and wondered how long it would be before almost every depression became a hurricane. In 2013, we just here and wonder if any depression will ever become a hurricane. ;-)
Quoting 1159. GatorWX:


Sounds good to me. I don't remember seeing it tossed around. I guess I really wasn't on much early this season. That was assembled July 1st?


I began talking and adding people in since March 10... Yeah, for over 3 months

Did you miss this?
1167. will40
i will give mine after the season is over. it will be more accurate then
Quoting 1147. wunderkidcayman:
trHUrrIXC5MMX
check mail


Ok...
Quoting 1158. 62901IL:

Mine is 8-7-1


Nice hurricane to T. storm ratio there.

Taz is talking about his revised forecast. We're already at 7-0-0, lol, so both your's and mine can't be statistically met anymore. Unless things went real quiet for the rest of the season (don't jinx it Astro).
I'm thinking we'll see around 13-14 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes for a season total. The Gulf of Mexico -- specifically the Bay of Campeche -- has been the place to be this season and there are no signs of that changing. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at 1 or 2 cyclones coming from that region over the next two weeks. The MJO should leave the Atlantic next week, putting it back in Octants 8 and 1 by early October. We should see a good bit of activity then since the MJO matters a lot more in October than it does in the peak months of August and September.
Now I have a problem... TD8 could really have been a storm... I have to delay the results and the winners until the Post analysts for td8 comes out... Darn
1172. 62901IL
Quoting 1169. Astrometeor:


Nice hurricane to T. storm ratio there.

Taz is talking about his revised forecast. We're already at 7-0-0, lol, so both your's and mine can't be statistically met anymore. Unless things went real quiet for the rest of the season (don't jinx it Astro).

What was yours again?
Quoting 1152. Hurricane614:
I see 91L is up to 70 and 90 percent. I think this one will be interesting to watch in the coming days.




If the GFS bends it back west I don't think it will go that far North before it does it...it may just scoot along west
Quoting 1172. 62901IL:

What was yours again?


8-4-1.
Quoting 1170. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm thinking we'll see around 13-14 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes for a season total. The Gulf of Mexico -- specifically the Bay of Campeche -- has been the place to be this season and there are no signs of that changing. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at 1 or 2 cyclones coming from that region over the next two weeks. The MJO should leave the Atlantic next week, putting it back in Octants 8 and 1 by early October. We should see a good bit of activity then since the MJO matters a lot more in October than it does in the peak months of August and September.



can we plzs get are 1st hurricane 1st and see how that one gos be for we talk about getting are 1st major hurricane
Why isn't 91L designated yet?
No matter what... Im NOT changing or reducing my hurricane forecast just because this is happening... We still have lots of September, all October and November...even December.
Quoting 1171. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Now I have a problem... TD8 could really have been a storm... I have to delay the results and the winners until the Post analysts for td8 comes out... Darn


Doubt NHC will upgrade it.
1180. GatorWX
Quoting 1166. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I began talking and adding people in since March 10... Yeah, for over 3 months

Did you miss this?


Apparently, :)

I didn't come on at all before season besides to read the blog entry itself. I didn't start commenting much until mid-June.
Quoting 1177. FunnelVortex:
Why isn't 91L designated yet?




why do you keep asking that?



the nhc will do it when they are ready too do so
Quoting 1175. Tazmanian:



can we plzs get are 1st hurricane 1st and see how that one gos be for we talk about getting are 1st major hurricane

No.

Quoting 1177. FunnelVortex:
Why isn't 91L designated yet?

Convective organization isn't there yet.
1183. 62901IL
Anyone think that the curse of the I will continue this year?
1184. Dakster
Quoting 1136. Astrometeor:


Florida gets the flu? I thought that was only for cold places.

What's worked for me for years: Wash hands with soap.


We get summer flu's too. Yes - but that only helps to not spread. The person coughing next to you - it doesn't help. And the stuff that bugs/insects spread are all year 'round possibilities too. Although if we have a cold winter they typically go an hide.

In addition, at least in South Florida, we have a lot of people coming in from other places they spread stuff like crazy.

So, no, the Flu isn't just for cold places. ALTHOUGH, a Flu in a cold place is probably worse than a Flu in a warm place as the secondary infections are probably worse in colder areas. (pnuemonia for example). I could be wrong as I am no doctor, but I do know that when I get a Flu up north it seems much worse.
1185. Patrap
One of the reasons, if not the reason I never take seasonal Numbers seriously,is that even it they were right, you cant tell me where, when, or at what Strength.

It's a moot set of numbers as a Season's record to me, is rated as to impact, as that affects the Human part of the day.

The most important part to me.

Let's see. 2013-2005=8, so 2013+8= 2021.

That will be a bad season. Too bad its not that easy to predict.
Quoting 1179. wxgeek723:


Doubt NHC will upgrade it.


I don't know but I still have to wait...

I dont want to see people who won upset or the ones that didn't surprised by changing one number...
1188. Dakster
Quoting 1162. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Did you tell me before or after July 1st?


Before... But only a few days before.
1189. Patrap
Quoting 1184. Dakster:


We get summer flu's too. Yes - but that only helps to not spread. The person coughing next to you - it doesn't help. And the stuff that bugs/insects spread are all year 'round possibilities too. Although if we have a cold winter they typically go an hide.

In addition, at least in South Florida, we have a lot of people coming in from other places they spread stuff like crazy.

So, no, the Flu isn't just for cold places. ALTHOUGH, a Flu in a cold place is probably worse than a Flu in a warm place as the secondary infections are probably worse in colder areas. (pnuemonia for example). I could be wrong as I am no doctor, but I do know that when I get a Flu up north it seems much worse.


Stand your Flu ground?
1190. Dakster
Quoting 1189. Patrap:


Stand your Flu ground?


ROFLMAO... Yes...
1191. barbamz
Quoting 1097. Neapolitan:If the Climate Prediction Center is to be believed--and why wouldn't they be?--any true cold fronts are still a ways off. In fact, with the exceptiin of the mid-Atlantic states, the 6-10 day outlook looks pretty toasty--and the 8-14 day outloook even more so:


BBC about the summer refill in the US the week ahead:

Heat builds in North America
BBC weather video, 8 September 2013 Last updated at 15:15
Temperatures soar up to the mid to high thirties for parts of North America this week, potentially breaking some September records.
BBC Weather's John Hammond has the details.


Short hello from rainy and newly quite chilly Germany. Autumn sends its first messages. Have a nice Sunday everybody! Maybe back later in the evening.

UK/European outlook:
Weather for the week ahead

I believe the first hurricane will be a major. Nature has a way of balancing itself.
Quoting 1188. Dakster:


Before... But only a few days before.


Do you remember your numbers?
1194. JLPR2
91L has everything going for it.

So go, 91L! Become our first hurricane, pretty please! XD

my numbers old and new
old: 18-20 storms 12-14 hurricanes 5-7 major hurricanes then I took the median
old: 19 storms 13 hurricanes 6 major hurricanes
updated in early June

New: 17-19 storms 6-8 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes
then I took the median
New: 18 storms 7 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes
updated in late August

new and last one will be issued in early October
So, the Pakster on the hurricane list is most definitely Dakster. I checked WU's list of handles, and a "Pakster" doesn't exist. So Dakster did get his numbers in on time, Max just messed his name up, that's all.

Hope that clears things up, go ahead and yell at Max guys.
1197. will40
Quoting 1194. JLPR2:
91L has everything going for it.

So go, 91L! Become our first hurricane, pretty please! XD



yes it would be nice if it was close enuff for HH
1198. Patrap
Quoting 1192. E46Pilot:
I believe the first hurricane will be a major. Nature has a way of balancing itself.


Cept when we add Gigatonnes of sequestered Carbon to her atmosphere,

That tends to er, warm her very much, unnaturally...Globally.

The way it works is simple, for every 1F we increase her Global Temp, we add 10% more WV as well.

Have a nice day.

; )

1199. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's because the LGEM and SHIPS are only meant to be used after a tropical cyclone has been designated. Historically, the LGEM has been the best statistical intensity model out there.

Gabrielle was a TS. Both the LGEM and the SHIPS still forecast a cat 2. Historically, we have several good models. This year, they range from poor to absolutely terrible. The NHC and the organizations responsible for these models need to take a hard look at what has gone wrong. AGW, SAL, vertical stability, drought in Brazil...I really don't care. We can't go through every upcoming hurricane season like this. "Let's wait until next year and see how it goes" won't fly either. Ford tried that with the Pinto, and it still kept catching on fire.
Impressive stats, no?



2013

2013


For comparison purposes, same-day 2010 charts:

2010

2010

Yes. Impressive, indeed... ;-)
Why do I keep stressing on July 1st?

July 1 was the deadline... I'm not going to make changes to my chart anymore.
It's considered cheating if I were to.
It appears SouthTampa's 12-3-0 forecast may win the big stuffed panda this season.

DISCLAIMER: there is no panda.
1203. Patrap
Quoting 1196. Astrometeor:
So, the Pakster on the hurricane list is most definitely Dakster. I checked WU's list of handles, and a "Pakster" doesn't exist. So Dakster did get his numbers in on time, Max just messed his name up, that's all.

Hope that clears things up, go ahead and yell at Max guys.


Why are you doing this...?
You want me to remove yours right?
1205. GatorWX
Quoting 1200. Neapolitan:
Impressive stats, no?



2013

2013


For comparison purposes, same-day 2010 charts:

2010

2010

Yes. Impressive, indeed... ;-)


Interesting set of graphics.
Quoting 1204. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Why are you doing this...?
You want me to remove yours right?


I'm trying to help Max. I don't want mine removed.
Quoting 1182. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


Convective organization isn't there yet.


Are they waiting for the convection to cover most of the circulation?
1208. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
my numbers old and new
old: 18-20 storms 12-14 hurricanes 5-7 major hurricanes then I took the median
old: 19 storms 13 hurricanes 6 major hurricanes
updated in early June

New: 17-19 storms 6-8 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes
then I took the median
New: 18 storms 7 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes
updated in late August

new and last one will be issued in early October

So you're saying that your models are basically the median of every other model? Boy, that takes some guts. :-)
Quoting 1200. Neapolitan:
Impressive stats, no?



2013

2013


For comparison purposes, same-day 2010 charts:

2010

2010

Yes. Impressive, indeed... ;-)


Hi Nea. Do you have the link to those graphics?
Quoting 1206. Astrometeor:


I'm trying to help Max. I don't want mine removed.


Ok rep... I'll act accordingly.
I wish the imagery in the east Atlantic had a higher frame rate. But this is what we've got, I guess.

Future Humberto:

Quoting 1199. sar2401:

Gabrielle was a TS. Both the LGEM and the SHIPS still forecast a cat 2. Historically, we have several good models. This year, they range from poor to absolutely terrible. The NHC and the organizations responsible for these models need to take a hard look at what has gone wrong. AGW, SAL, vertical stability, drought in Brazil...I really don't care. We can't go through every upcoming hurricane season like this. "Let's wait until next year and see how it goes" won't fly either. Ford tried that with the Pinto, and it still kept catching on fire.
Gabrielle was originally forecast to enter the northwestern Caribbean under superb conditions...arguably the most favorable region for tropical cyclone intensification in the entire globe. The intensity forecasts made perfect sense.

The later forecasts were adjusted downwards as soon as the statistical guidance forecasted the system to move over the Greater Antilles. The displacement of the mid and surface circulations is impossible to forecast, hence why the latter forecasts never verified. If it weren't for that, Gabrielle could've very well become a 60-70kt tropical cyclone.
I feel like at this point it would take several long tracked Cape Verde storms to bump up our ACE to any significant level. We're almost certainly going to finish with a near average stat and might even finish with a below average one.
Quoting 1205. GatorWX:


Interesting set of graphics.
Tough day for the Gators yesterday huh? ;)
1215. GatorWX

Quoting 1199. sar2401:

Gabrielle was a TS. Both the LGEM and the SHIPS still forecast a cat 2. Historically, we have several good models. This year, they range from poor to absolutely terrible. The NHC and the organizations responsible for these models need to take a hard look at what has gone wrong. AGW, SAL, vertical stability, drought in Brazil...I really don't care. We can't go through every upcoming hurricane season like this. "Let's wait until next year and see how it goes" won't fly either. Ford tried that with the Pinto, and it still kept catching on fire.

The 18z September 4 forecast -- when 97L became TD Seven -- from the SHIPS and LGEM called for a peak of 67 kt and 59 kt, respectively. It's possible that Gabrielle would have reached this intensity had mid-level dry air not weakened it. We also have to consider that the models cannot forecast interactions with other disturbances, like the one that was situated to its northeast.

As far as the intensity forecasts when the system was an invest, see MH09's post.

1217. Patrap
Saints roast,er "Host" the Falcons @ NOON in NOLA




1218. GatorWX
Quoting 1214. MiamiHurricanes09:
Tough day for the Gators yesterday huh? ;)


:(
Quoting 1209. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Nea. Do you have the link to those impressive graphics?
Not at the moment. They're just on a spreadsheet. I do have a public website where my climate graphs are available; I plan to work over the winter on adding the tropical charts and graphs to it.
Quoting 1211. FunnelVortex:
I wish the imagery in the east Atlantic had a higher frame rate. But this is what we've got, I guess.

Future Humberto:




I do see a chance it could become a hurricane before Thursday if it gets it's act together fast.....then again...it could get the name Humberto then just die like Gabby did
Quoting 1201. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Why do I keep stressing on July 1st?

July 1 was the deadline... I'm not going to make changes to my chart anymore.
It's considered cheating if I were to.


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.
1222. Patrap
1223. GatorWX
5-15kt swly shear over ex-gabs and good vorticity. You never know. Something to watch today at least.

1224. GatorWX
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.
Quoting 1195. wunderkidcayman:
my numbers old and new
old: 18-20 storms 12-14 hurricanes 5-7 major hurricanes then I took the median
old: 19 storms 13 hurricanes 6 major hurricanes
updated in early June

New: 17-19 storms 6-8 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes
then I took the median
New: 18 storms 7 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes
updated in late August

new and last one will be issued in early October



good luck with that there is no way we are going too see that many storms your forcast is all ready a big bust


92L is looking horrible either. But it does appear it will enter a area od high shear very soon

When it comes to the Brazil argument,you have to look at what's called the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), which is a measure of the MSLP, Temp, and SST anomalies between the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic. During positive AMM years, warmer waters are located over the Northeastern Atlantic and cooler waters over the Tropical South Atlantic. This leads to lower pressures over the Atlantic and high pressures over the South Atlantic. This helps to strengthen the meridional south-north vector wind, raises the position of the ITCZ, creates a more active Cape Verde Season and leads to dry conditions over Brazil. This has been positive over the past few years. A negative AMM features cooler water over the Atlantic and warmer waters over the south Atlantic. This would reverse the MSLP Anomalies and create anomalous northeasterlies over the MDR region. This would shove the ITCZ farther south and create positive rainfall anomalies over Brazil. This is my theory for why this season has been dull. A reversal of the AMM.
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.


He's not changing the NHC or CSU forecasts, either.

Edit: Are you Max?
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.


Those are organizations responsible for...
Only them could be excused.
Quoting 1226. Hurricane614:


92L is looking horrible either. But it does appear it will enter a area od high shear very soon



although it is only in 5- 15 kts shear right now so its hard to say
Quoting 1211. FunnelVortex:
I wish the imagery in the east Atlantic had a higher frame rate. But this is what we've got, I guess.

Future Humberto:



Just about a TD now as it is. Should be upgraded this evening if the trend holds, and there's no real reason it shouldn't.
Quoting 1208. sar2401:

So you're saying that your models are basically the median of every other model? Boy, that takes some guts. :-)

no I have a range of numbers in each category but to make it easier and 1 number for each category which is the numbers that I have put down I'm not taking any other model its just my model thats all
1233. Patrap
Looks more like December here

It's going West...
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it
Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?
Since I was a little girl mrmom...I think around 1918 , give or take
Quoting 1235. weatherlover94:
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it



same here
1238. DVG
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Glo bal-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warmin g-predictions.html
The deadliest natural disaster in United States history struck Texas on this date in 1900.
1240. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

Or you could make your own chart.
That way, you can do anything you like to it and with it.

And leave him to do whatever he wants to do, with his.
1241. Patrap
1242. SLU
Still a TS at 12z September 11th. New record should be set in 2013.

1243. GatorWX
The west is the best.

Quoting 1136. Astrometeor:


Florida gets the flu? I thought that was only for cold places.

What's worked for me for years: Wash hands with soap.
south Florida is tropical... Lot's of nasty's grow here..
Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?


On the flip side of things, if the season also began to start earlier (cough last year cough), then we could still average out to 9/10 for the peak.
91 looks bad

It's not going to make i

Noaa is eating crow right now as we speak
Quoting 1235. weatherlover94:
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it

Talk about impatient. This season is about to turn around 180 degrees.
1248. GatorWX
Looks like one of those early Gulf systems from the past few years (Barry, Debby, Andrea, etc).



Except it's moving.
Quoting 1241. Patrap:


Really wouldn't count off Gabby yet.
1250. Patrap
The DailyMail for Climate Science?

Really ?

Ack'

You could of at least linked to the actual article of gibberish, instead of their Home page.

Ill never get those 18.354 secs back.

Now everyone you wanted to lie to wont even stay long nuff to find the er,"story".
Quoting 1204. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Why are you doing this...?
You want me to remove yours right?
Max... I'm sorry... You are getting bomblasted for no reason.. I don't get it .
1252. Patrap
Quoting 1249. FunnelVortex:


Really wouldn't count off Gabby yet.


Living smack on 30n 90w, I'm gonna go out on a limb and count her off.
Quoting 1242. SLU:
Still a TS at 12z September 11th. New record should be set in 2013.



It looks that way. Now let's see if in reality reaches hurricane strength. IMO,it will be a close call.
Quoting 1236. PalmBeachWeather:
Since I was a little girl mrmom...I think around 1918 , give or take


What?????

1918? 95 years ago? You?
Quoting 1252. Patrap:


Living smack on 30n 90w, I'm gonna go out on a limb and count her off.
If it's a Mahogany limb be careful...Mine all fell and broke during Wilma
Quoting 1254. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What?????

1918? 95 years ago? You?
LOL
1257. Patrap
if something forms in the BOC this week where will it go ? since it is at the end of a front should it continue west into Mexico again or will it track North toward Louisiana ?
1259. sar2401
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Gabrielle was originally forecast to enter the northwestern Caribbean under superb conditions...arguably the most favorable region for tropical cyclone intensification in the entire globe. The intensity forecasts made perfect sense.

The later forecasts were adjusted downwards as soon as the statistical guidance forecasted the system to move over the Greater Antilles. The displacement of the mid and surface circulations is impossible to forecast, hence why the latter forecasts never verified. If it weren't for that, Gabrielle could've very well become a 60-70kt tropical cyclone.

I'm sorry, but this kind of model defense doesn't hold water. As has already been stated, LGEM and SHIPS have historically only worked well with a developed cyclone. Since that's the case, don't make ridiculous intensity forecasts when things are merely invests. Is it impossible for a model to state" not enough data" for a forecast, or does it have to make up numbers?

As for the idea that this invest was entering the best conditions known to the globe, apparently we can't much depend on models knowing when this really aren't that great, can we?

Now, when exactly did the GEM and SHIPS stop predicting hurricane intensity compared to when it was declared a depression? Give that answer and you'll see why the models are broken.
Quoting 1219. Neapolitan:
Not at the moment. They're just on a spreadsheet. I do have a public website where my climate graphs are available; I plan to work over the winter on adding the tropical charts and graphs to it.

You've really got to find a way to have python do the work for you in analyzing and plotting that data. All that manual work every few days is going to kill ya!
1261. sar2401
Quoting weatherlover94:
if something forms in the BOC this week where will it go ? since it is at the end of a front should it continue west into Mexico again or will it track North toward Louisiana ?

Three theoretical questions, and one alone is impossible to answer. :-) If a storm forms in the Gulf, then we might be able to guess.
record will be broken this year, this is the type of record you want to see broken, stay safe yall back to football!!!!!
Quoting 1262. chrisdscane:
record will be broken this year, this is the type of record you want to see broken, stay safe yall back to football!!!!!
Is that that rap guy?
1264. SLU
Quoting 1253. Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks that way. Now let's see if in reality reaches hurricane strength. IMO,it will be a close call.


my opinion calls for a brief 55 - 65kt tropical cyclone well within 96 hrs at best.
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.
Quoting 1224. GatorWX:


Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

Quoting 1225. Tazmanian:



good luck with that there is no way we are going too see that many storms your forcast is all ready a big bust

you can't say that here tell me that at or near the season's end we got the rest of this month and october and november I can see the possibility of seeing 10 storms before the end

Quoting 1228. Astrometeor:


He's not changing the NHC or CSU forecasts, either.

Edit: Are you Max?

No I'm not Max

Quoting 1229. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Those are organizations responsible for...
Only them could be excused.

Weather Underground is an organization and its people within made forecast for the season you took that and made it into a chart the people have their rights to change their forecast for their mid season if they want to and the same way that the NHC and CSU forecast is out publicly so is this and the whole world can see it so we want the world to see WU old or WU new I think new
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
anyway lets leave it at that and lets get on to Jeff's new blog
Quoting 1247. RGVtropicalWx13:

Talk about impatient. This season is about to turn around 180 degrees.




you guys been saying that all freaking season long and look nothing has really happen yet some of you guys need too look at the facs



1 wind shear have been high for most of the season and still is now and now where getting in two mid SEP the wind shear olny going too get higher from here on out CV season is closeing


2 lost of dry air


3 there been a lot of ULLS this season and with that it brings high wind shear

4 all so there been a lack of INSTABILITY in the MDR and this about evere where this season

5 and last be not less the MJO we been saying since late july the MJO will come around and be strong well where has the MJO been this season? it seem like its been in the E PAC the most of the season so with that all said the lack of a MJO ULLS dry air and high wind shear and lack of INSTABILITY and what do you guys get you get a season with vary low # and that what we have seen this season all so this season has been like what you find in a EL nino look for the season too end vary early this year un less things really start too turn around but am not seeing it right now
1269. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

You are the only one in the "community" that I've read that's making an issue out of it. First, it's Max's chart, so he makes the rules. The rules were, make your guess by July 1, and that's what we did. The rules weren't to make a new guess every month through October.

This was just a fun thing to do. None of us have the ability to make an accurate forecast (nor does CSU or the NHC, for that matter, even now) so it was just a bunch of guesses. With as many people who participated, someone is bound to be right just by the law of averages. Is this just something where you want to be right? That's fine, I'll declare you my personal winner. Just like all storms moving west. I'll agree with you until they don't. None of this is really all that important.
Quoting 1260. ScottLincoln:

You've really got to find a way to have python do the work for you in analyzing and plotting that data. All that manual work every few days is going to kill ya!
Manual work? Hah! I just update a few cells in a spreadsheet, and click save. All the resizing, renaming, and uploading is done with a script. Nah, I'd estimate that after the initial development, I probably spend an average of about 10-20 seconds a day on each graph.
Who DAT!
Quoting 1271. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Who DAT!
We dat! not them falcons! so how is our 80% bubble looking?