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Tropical Depression Chris?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

Here's a quick update on still Tropical Storm Chris.

From the National Hurricane Center discussion:
"The combination of dry low- to mid-level air and shear...associated with an upper-level cyclone that dropped southward into Chris...has taken its toll on the tropical cyclone. Chris is devoid of deep convection within about 75 N mi radius of the center."

Again in the 2006 Hurricane Season, shear rules. The GFS model continues to forecast shear over the westerly path is which Chris is moving.

With that said, eyes will be glued to this cyclone. If shear relaxes a bit, the storm could intensify. With the current shear trend, the storm might completely dissipate.

Hopefully the rule of King Shear will continue, making the residents of Florida and the Islands breathe a bit easier.

Figure 1. The long range radar from San Juan, Puerto Rico showing the showers and thunderstorms of Chris.


-John Celenza in for Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hello
Good notice at all!
Bummer!
Seems were all so focused on the US. Here's the latest update on the impact of typhoons so far this year in asia.

More than 1,460 people have been killed during this year's typhoon season, which started unusually early. Chinese officials estimate more than 1 million houses have been damaged and millions of acres of farmland and forests destroyed.
Let's hope the shearing continues and weakens this thing so much it won't have the time or inclination to regroup in the Gulf. North Texas and Western LA should keep an eye on this...the gulf waters are pushing 85 degrees.
are the clouds increasing over Chris!!!! omg ! lol
POOF ! I cant read another 3000 blog entries today anyway...still have headache from yesterday !
The 1012mb central pressure says it all - This is a depression, at best!
I did hear on the local news that if it takes a track more toward south florida that it could restrengthen later on.... and i was thinking mayb do a katrina(cat 1) on us
how much shear is over chris now??
there is a new little burst if cinvection although its like 50 miles from the center...... this weakening caught me off guard, this is good news for us in S . florida...... although there will be more storm in the future :/
I am glad Chris weakened I don't think I could go another day reading around 3000 blogs. Hopefully it will completely dissapate.
Amen boca - it wasn't so much the blogs as it was the hostility and anger people were projecting. I want to know when to worry and when to not worry, I don't want someone slicing and dicing everyone for trying to keep us informed.
NellyStormGeeks was up 24 hours straight and wishcast poor Chris to death....
hello all. newbie. been watching your board throughout the season, and you seem to be an eclectic group full of interesting info and characters.lol

looking forward to seeing your opinions and takes on the active season coming up.

just learning, so i'll be watching and will ask a question or two now and then... nice to meet you all.
Would it be possible, in the future, to link pictures instead of posting them in the thread? Yesterdays thread killed my connection. Twice.

No hurricane party this weekend.
Good morning all,
Watched the painful castration last night; still have bags under my eyes. It's my day off and I'm going back to bed. Check back around noon. It was an interesting and tough lil guy, though...
Well hopefully the preverbial bullet has been dodged.

And yes, it is nice to have the blog a little quiter today. It was very hard to keep up at times :)

See ya'll later.
SJ
Welcome heatmeiser... party on. Hope that you have the stomach for it. It gets crazy in here some times. ok...now, I'm going back to bed!
Alright I am going to go do some work which I need to catch up on...see you all later
no obsenities please even if it is in spanish. Nelllystromgeeks im talking to you.

Glad to see this thing dissipate, although I thougth for a minute there that this thing was headed sountwest straigth for us in PR.

Have a good one everybody (even if it is sleep)
Don't you wonder if Cantore had to turn his plane around? The tropical SUN on his shiny little head can't be a good combo...without the storms, guessing he headed back to the studio.
O.K. that was mean...I apologize to Cantore, TWC and all other parties who may or may not have been offended by my previous statements. I hope in my lifetime I can work out my issues with bald weather forecasters and have a positive balance with their existence from this point forward.
Posted By: windnwaves at 3:21 PM GMT on August 03, 2006.
As usual the weather kooks had no idea what they were talking about. A bunch of hype from a bunch of nothing-better-to-do clowns. This blog is just the place for that!


So, uh, thanks for adding your post...

Posted By: windnwaves at 3:24 PM GMT on August 03, 2006.
heatmieser: there is nothing to learn here but the art of hype. joe bastardi/brian norcross wannabes. you will learn nothing but obfuscation and how to waste time.


Yeah, don't be wastin your time now... ;-)
Yes NellystormGeeks no language even in Spanish. A lot of us understand some Spanish so it is not overlooked.
Chris is gone.....SHEAR rules right now.
What is wind shear? Can someone explain? I know it helps prevent the development of tropical systems, but I couldn't really tell anyone what it is... help?
I still do think Chris has a chance.... i give it a 30% chance to come back.
GulfScot is on a mission... I wish I could bring myself to disagree with his caution but considering the stakes, his advice is very wise (even though he cliches from XFiles).
I have a question. How much shear is over Chris right now?????????????
lol... chris looks so huge without its convection
I estimate 15 to 20kts. of shear.
We just need to get you a catch phrase, GulfScot
Gulfscotsman
Oh grand wise experts please do tell -
how come this is still 400nm in diameter and churning silently at the surface while you proclaim it's death and pontificate against the cautious

Throughout history, there have only been a couple of hurricanes that have decoupled. All have been near land, where the MLC has separated and left the LLC and moved over land. Those obviously have all died. This is unusual, and it looks like death is impending, because there is no deep convection to support this large surface low. BUT, no one should pontificate or tell anyone that they are wrong. There is always the possibility that ANY surface low in good conditions could intensify. I'm not totally counting anything out with this storm. It's been crazy. We've all got a lot to learn from this scenario...
Dr Grays revised forecast as of 8/3/06
15 Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major
local stations said that later pn the shear could lessen.... and the ssts are definitley warm around florida... so i don't know..and it proabably could strengthen before that, thats why they kept the TS watch for the southern Bahamas... if they were 90% sure it wasn't going to comeback they would have took it off
PartlySunny

Windshear simply blows the tops off of the clouds and doesn't alow them to build higher into the atmosphere. Without the really high clouds there can not be the formation of really severe storms like hurricanes. Hope this helps!


windnwaves. If you dislike this blog or the speculation that the people here do about storms, then please accept our invitation to quit coming here to read it!
Absolutely, JP... the only absolute out there is that there are no absolutes... how many times can one post contain the word absolute?
Mornin' jp.
oh ok I get it now......... oh i have a question, is the ull causing shear over chris???
Just home for a lunch break , All I have to say is Chris has been given up for dead several times on It's trek from Africa. So don't count him out yet.
Even degraded Chris creates a bit more excitment for people sailing those waters. Been there, done that.

Spent 24 years in the U.S. Navy, 15 years on sea duty. Many, many counter narcotics patrols in those waters aboard frigates and destroyers. Can be awfully rough.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some fishing boats being lost as this thing close on Dominica.

Mike

BMCS Mike Lee, USN, (ret.)
I can't even see that silly little ULL that supposedly dropped southward into Chris. How can one small little thing like that knock down such a monster?
YIPEE!!! Chris is no longer a threat to anyone and will probably stay that way; we hope. Sorry for all of you that were really into this storm. Would have been nice if it had been an "out to sea" storm where no one gets hurt!

We are all just "stormed out" after 2004 and 2005 here in Florida and most of the Gulf region.

Everyone have a wonderful day and will check back in from time to time.
Great Update, Dr Masters!
SHEAR RULES!!!!

Gamma
lol.. has a storm that looks how chris looks now ever came back??????????????????????????????????????
New Blog entry up in my blog,

I raise the question of if Chris can do the same as Katrina did last year?
OD Blog
is there any way of getting the doppler radar loop from say 7 pm last night until say 7am this morning of Chris as it decouples?
It was almost as if a guillotine cut the storm horizontally at a low altitude and pushed the upper part aside.
Poor Chris, letting everyone down. Ha. Not sure this is dead yet. Sheer is tough this year, but this still has good LLC, just the convection has been torn off. I think it will continue W with wobbles to the SW and continue near land until it gets closer to the Yucatan. I will pick up watching then. Until then, it may intensify a bit, but nothing worth noting. If/when it get nearer to the Gulf, sheer obstaining, this could be interesting to watch if it can get more of a NW, NNW track. I can't get a clear picture yet based on the models to see where and how the steering may be affected. As usual..

Wait and see.
*looks up the definition of rhetorical* I just wish there would have been a calmer exchange of opinions about this entire storm. I could not care less what everyone thought about where/when/how strong as long as they could back up their educated guesses. There are alot of nervous folks on the gulf coast that will continue to freak out whenever a potential storm comes into play. Please take your time, lay out your opinion, and back it up with your reasoning. And above all try not to cause any panic. In the last 48 hrs here at the hotel, we had triple the amount of phone calls about reservations.
Thank you, Joy. Your wind shear explanation makes perfect sense!

Anyone know when NOAA is coming out with its mid-season forecast update? I read "early August" on the NOAA Web site I believe.

I was hopeful Dr. Gray's revised forecast would be fewer-still storms.
to me this thing is for sure moving wnw... if it continues on this path for about 12 more hours... i think it will be north of cuba and that could give chris more time to get its act together
You guys are awesome! Being a newbie to weather watching I really appreciate it when you take a minute to explain the basics when someone asks. Does anyone know where I can get realtime windshear or SST shapefiles, or even tables w/lat-long, (for GIS mapping)?
wow chris is really dry
Tannim:
*looks up the definition of rhetorical* I just wish there would have been a calmer exchange of opinions about this entire storm.
I don't mind disagreement...it's awesome. There is always something to learn from different opinions. I like being right, and also being wrong when I thought it out logically and nature changed things. The unpredictability of weather is why we like it! BUT, it's not just THIS storm, it's every storm that has folks flinging poop on here. It's not personal....it's adrenalin, that's all. Can't we all just get along????
Heads up! the CMC model has a very large Cape Verde type storm coming off Africa in approx. 24 hours. I know the CMC can be very inaccurate at times, but it did call Alberto and the GFS has been forcasting a simalar storm, but not to the exent of the CMC. take a look and tell me what you think.

CMC

GFS
76. MRK
Being a SW FL resident, I read the blog all the time and find the discussions and links very helpful and informative......plus it keeps the day interesting. My thought for the ones that don't seem to like this exchange of ideas and info, go do something else...for all of the regulars on here...Thank you for keeping me informed. I for one appreciate it!!

mrk in estero fl
Hey all. Im new here so take it easy on me as I get a hang of the way things work here.
Ive got a question, how realiable are these models? Should we really be expecting a TD to form this weekend off Africa or is it another "believe it when you see it"? If so, whats the Atlantic supposed to be like in that time, would it have a chance to grow and would it be a threat to the Caribbean, or are conditions probably favorable for the typical curving out into the Atlantic?

THANKS
Hey sarcasm is a good thing... It is a genetic trait in my family. Many of you (GulfScot as an example) keep the focus on what is ultimately important in the long term. FOr instance, Chris might be dying out. But what is missing from some of the posts is the ultimate long term (however small) potential of a rebirth of the storm. Do I think it will happen? How should I know? I am not even remotely qualified to guess. But I do know the difference between a thoughtful post (again using GulfScot, JP, etc sorry if I left you out if you feel you were left out) and a BS post.
Chris has been a really complicated storm
How can I see that tiny ULL over Chris? I can't see it on the WV at all.
Where in Texas do you think Chris is going to come ashore?

and if it does jump to a hurricane, will it be a 3 or 4?

mel
*walks away from podium and resumes lurking*
All of us here in the Abacos are breathing a little easier today. Most of the slips here at Spanish Cay are empty. About 5 boats left for FL. this morning due to H.A. or, "Hurricane Anxiety".
The curse of Chris survives! (we hope!).
I finf the laetest MIMIC loop..... no real eveidence of any soyhward motion of any kind, at best, due west....

every TS has their own little twist..... Chris certainly had his! :)
Afternoon all
quake, the ULL is over the Northern Bahamas. Use the WV to see it best. At least I think this is what you are reffering to.
Oh no SJ, not that one...that one has been trucking westward at least as fast or it not faster than Chris...I'm talking about the tiny one that somehow managed to almost kill it...
how can there be a 400nm closed surface low swirlling over high SST's and NOT be a chance for explosive dynamic reformation if shear falls off....

why is this thing 400nm in diameter? what is the science for that large of a surface low


GulfScotsman, it's physics. THink of an iceskater pulling their arms in and spinning. This storm had grown large because it had the convection and spin to support it. BUT, now it is large without any convection. It's going to have to tighten up with some spin in order to survive. It definitely has the potential, but may do better if it was 250 nm than 400. When have we seen this scenario? I have looked and looked and it isn't there. So, while conditions are favorable IF it gets into the Gulf, we just have to wait and see. Now, I'm going to eat and sleep....See ya'll later.
benirica, the models aren't usually very accurate unless they seem to be coming togther in unisun and forcasting a similar track. Now, there are only two models predicting a Cape Verde storm, the GFS and CMC.
Chris always had shear....always....but midlevel Dry Air moved into chris from the north and decoupled the system...shoving the midlevel center SSW......so it wasnt exactly shear that destroyed chris...it was the dry air in the midlevels that build up the storms....
I hope everyone would stop saying it was the shear....cause the shear has always been there...
nic come back



is it me or is it trying to make a come back nic storm poping up
It is impossible to know what will or will not evolve with Chris. You can not trust MODELS or FORECASTERS, everything can change in a heart beat as evident over the last 12 hrs. It only takes a few hrs for a cyclone to intensify from a Cat 1 to a Cat 5.... and vice versa. Just goes to show the incredible amount of unpredictability and uncertainties regarding tropical cyclones. By all means people...DO NOT WRITE CHRIS OFF!
Couldn't have said it better myself Gams.

Good job!
I guess my earlier question got missed so I will ask again...What are the chances of the ULL over Burmuda when it moves into the GOM forming when it hits the eddy's?
yawns. what a boring season so far.
Does this site still have the long range gfs model for the US. I would appreciate it if someone gave me the link.
look like t-storm are pop back up the mb has drop 1 mb from 1012 to 1011mb its on the nay site i saw it so it may be makeing a come back
Does anyone know what direction that band of thunderstorms previously known as Chris is heading?
Are the GFS and CMS showing the same system even if the one on CMS is comming up in 24 hours and the GFS more or less by Sunday?
I don't lkno if u guys are seeing this...but mositure( very little amount) is slowly creeping towards the center
Those things take a lot of time to transition to warm core jeb. It is fairly unlikely, but not out of the question.
I will not write Chris off, but it will be almost insurmountable to restrenthen back to a strong TS. I will not write Chris off though.
hopefully it will...
What is up 007? Good to see ya!

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, storm video, and much more.
108. IKE
Click on the Caribbean/West Atlantic water vapor loop. You can clearly see an upper level low diving southwest toward Chris. That and the one just east of south Florida are this storms death notice.

Nice try Chris...shouldn't you be getting ready for school anyway?
benirica, I think so, but have not checked the models lately. Also note it is the CMC (Canadian model)
I think chris is trying to fight back
though right now, this season reminds me of the 1997 season, when el nio was in place.
Thanks stormjunkie, not that I want it to form, but when I hear GOM and possible storm especially something coming over the peninsula of Florida its close to me, I just want to be ready for anything.
007, on this page the last link in the models section has the long range.
hello all...will the NCH cone of error continue even if it is a tropical depression again?
117. IKE
Yeah...I think it's over for Christopher, although the NAM model......uh...forget it.
I see it HurricaneRoman. Not very quickly, but still, there is a small amount of moisture trying to get close to the center. Chris doesn't want to die.
119. IKE
I think the cone continues until it's last breath is takin.
thks ike
I don't think Chris will disspipate... i think it will stay a TD
Can anyone explain something to me?

All the talk about shear and the shear maps shows very little to be found (10-15 from what I can tell). Wouldn't it be fair to say this was not much of a contributing factor considering the rapid deintensification of the storm?

I want to be clear, I am only trying to learn not point out anything other than that.
Here is a sattilite loop that shows Chris rapidly losing organization

Link
YEA 1900... it keeps building..
Chris is still tracking just N of W.

Ok, lunch is over. See ya'll later
I think the main reason for Chris's weakining is that it it is sucking up sooooo much dry air. Check it out on the WV Loop.
Red, I think that what happened is the high that came down pushed the mid level circulation in a southerly direction, but allowed the low level to continue tracking WNW. I think this could only happen because it was a weak system at the time. I think this could also lead to some of the discrepancies that we have seen in the model runs.

See ya'll later
SJ
1900, the dry air is associated with the building high that I speculate pushed the midlevel circulation to the S, which had all the convection. If I am wrong here, someone chime in.

Thanks
SJ
Note the bit of a convection firing up closer to the center in the last couple oLinkf images.
Wow, that was better than the Superbowl. However, sadly our team is going to lose eventually in this Climate Change lottery. The strong storms we have made more likely will appear, if not this year, then the next, or maybe the next.

That area just below Cuba would bad place for something to get started, it would have easy access to the gulf. And in some ways that is the weakness in the shear defense. If the system always finds away that looks like a hotspot.

I think we know that pretty much anything hot core making into the gulf is a high risk. Oil prices spiked by over a dollar when Chris was a TS trying to be a hurricane. They dropped by over a dollar today as Chris was torn apart.

It's fun to watch the energy you guys give to these storms. I concede that the fundamentals held this time, the one in million chance did happen. It's encouraging that we are understanding hurricanes better. It beats watching a windsock on the beach.
seems reasoable SJ
the one in a million chance did not happen
rapid, i have been watching it .... i wonder if this will continue
I would like to thank everyone who has made a website to help amutures like me. they are all very good and helpfull.
Thanks SJ, that makes sense to me. I dont have much weathersense, but I can see what you are saying.
New blog is up
Lets the saddle out and loosens the reins But I am still watching Chris. Thanks for all the good info!!!!
SJ- From what I understood was this storm was a relatively "short" storm at most of convection below 25,000 feet. The higher level of this storm has really taken the brunt of all the obsticales it has faced until this occurred and the "top" flew south. The mets are now counting this system out yet. Do you agree this is possible? Is there a recon flight planned? Thanks in advance.
Chris still has quite a low level circulation. This storm is not over yet, it is just on hold. Being that the surface reflection is so strong, once it gets over to a more favorable enviroment, I believe it will regain convection. I don't see it making it to hurricane status ever, but a TS again is not out of the cards.
This storm gave a fight from the start, making itself get noticed when the models were already not showing it. Sooner or later it had to go, and now was its time. If theres one thing to say about Chris is that its a survivor.
Weather is so wonderfully unpredictable, I love that the most!