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Tropical Depression Bonnie Makes Landfall Near Charleston, SC

By: Jeff Masters 3:28 PM GMT on May 29, 2016

The center of Tropical Depression Bonnie made landfall on the coast of South Carolina just east of Charleston at 8:30 am EDT Sunday morning. At the time, Bonnie had top winds of 35 mph. On Saturday night, Bonnie reached peak intensity with 45 mph winds as the center of the storm lingered over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. However, early on Sunday morning, strong upper level winds created wind shear in excess of 40 knots over the storm, ripping away most of Bonnie's heavy thunderstorms, reducing the storm to tropical depression status.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Bonnie making landfall near Charleston, South Carolina, as seen by the GOES-East satellite at 8:30 am EST May 29, 2016. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

As Bonnie heads north at 9 mph on Sunday, the center will get farther from the warm ocean waters that fuel the storm, causing weakening. Nevertheless, Bonnie will be able to dump heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches over much of coastal South Carolina and adjacent areas of coastal Georgia and North Carolina through Monday. Radar-estimated rainfall from Charleston, South Carolina on Sunday morning showed several regions between Charleston, South Carolina and Savannah, Georgia had already tallied more than two inches of rain from the storm.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall from Charleston, South Carolina at 11:05 am EDT Sunday, May 29, 2016. Several coastal areas had received more than 2" of rain (yellow colors.)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Repost from last blog

If shear does drop to favorable levels next week any storm will have to be watched.Especially if its not planing on going anywhere any time soon.It'll have plenty of warm water to feast on as water temperatures are in the mid 80's and extend to a great depth.
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Repost from last blog

If shear does drop to favorable levels next week any storm will have to be watched.Especially if its not planing on going anywhere any time soon.It'll have plenty of warm water to feast on as water temperatures are in the mid 80's and extend to a great depth.


I agree. Very deep heat for systems to feed off of. Pattern looks good within the first 10 days of June for lowering pressures and possible development.
Thank you for the update.

Regarding comments from the previous blog about making light of the situation . . . don't misinterpret any joking as callousness to any individual being negatively impacted by the system. No one here wishes ill on anyone else (well except for the occasional troll). Different folks deal with stress and the (over}hype of these events differently.

Ever been to an Irish wake?

As a rainfall event, this may cause some issues - and we do hope that they are localized and do not impact a significant number of people.

Same can be said about comments regarding "rural" tornadoes. Unless located in protected land, these obviously impact someone somewhere (be it lost crops, etc). But we all breathe a sigh of relief that the damage was minor as compared to what could have happened.
Quoting 3. daddyjames:

Thank you for the update.

Regarding comments from the previous blog about making light of the situation . . . don't misinterpret any joking as callousness to any individual being negatively impacted by the system. No one here wishes ill on anyone else (well except for the occasional troll). Different folks deal with stress and the (over}hype of these events differently.

Ever been to an Irish wake?

As a rainfall event, this may cause some issues - and we do hope that they are localized and do not impact a significant number of people.

Same can be said about comments regarding "rural" tornadoes. Unless located in protected land, these obviously impact someone somewhere (be it lost crops, etc). But we all breathe a sigh of relief that the damage was minor as compared to what could have happened.


Exactly!
Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 7m7 minutes ago
Rain from #Bonnie likely to move into DC area 4-6p this afternoon/evening.

Even while weakening, Bonnie has unloaded some heavy rainfall. Through Sunday morning, doppler radar estimated that two to four inches of rain had already fallen between Charleston, S.C. and east-central Georgia, with some localized totals to eight inches.
Hello all

How about those Warriors!!

Periods of sunshine here and lots of humidity..

21 year old Swimmer is still missing from Carolina beach

If you're going to the beach in the next couple of days especially in SC/NC please heed the red flags of rip currents and stay out of the water

Have a safe holiday

Thank you for the Update. Got a friend in Savanah, nothing too crazy going on over there.
From last blog
Quoting 486. 19N81W:

Rain! Wow! Finally measurable rain!
On another note was there really a tropical storm didn't look like it on the satellite I mean I know it was categorized as such but just didn't ever have that look


Hehehe finally are you happy now

Well looks like there is lots more on the way within the next 10days or so maybe something more than just rain too
Passing shower just stranded me at the airport. We've been having them a lot this week.... more than I expected with Bonnie in the vicinity.

And.... before I even finish the post, the skies are blue again.... lol.... gotta love Nassau wx..

:-)
Quoting 1. washingtonian115:

Repost from last blog

If shear does drop to favorable levels next week any storm will have to be watched.Especially if its not planing on going anywhere any time soon.It'll have plenty of warm water to feast on as water temperatures are in the mid 80's and extend to a great depth.
Quoting 2. WeatherkidJoe2323:



I agree. Very deep heat for systems to feed off of. Pattern looks good within the first 10 days of June for lowering pressures and possible development.


Yes I agree very interesting days ahead
Quoting 6. ncstorm:

Hello all

How about those Warriors!!

Periods of sunshine here and lots of humidity..

21 year old Swimmer is still missing from Carolina beach

If you're going to the beach in the next couple of days especially in SC/NC please heed the red flags of rip currents and stay out of the water

Have a safe holiday


I started to ask about him on the previous blog.... hope he made it to shore okay....
Quoting 8. wunderkidcayman:

From last blog


Hehehe finally are you happy now

Well looks like there is lots more on the way within the next 10days or so maybe something more than just rain too
Looks like we may get another system next week ... coming up from your way....
Not much rain in the Myrtle Beach vicinity, that's good for the motorcycles.

Savannah river [Link]

Edisto river [Link]

Waccamaw river [Link]
The surface center of Bonnie has moved under the convection resulting in a jog to the west.



These Central American gyres are always interesting, but difficult, to watch and forecast. Typically, the presence of a ridge north of the Caribbean forces a weak storm into Central America, with the East Pacific cyclone becoming the stronger of the two. The setup will be a bit different this time around, with modelling keying in on a large trough across the East United States during the extended range. If anything were to develop, which is far from a guarantee right now, the pattern would favor it moving into the Gulf of Mexico. It's impossible to know how conducive the upper-air pattern would be right now, but ocean temperatures are plenty warm, and ocean heat content is excessive for this time of the year.

Fun fact: if we see Colin before June 11, it will mark the earliest formation of the 3rd tropical storm on record, eclipsing 1887.

Quoting 12. BahaHurican:

Looks like we may get another system next week ... coming up from your way....


Yep
What if she loops back off the coast...

Quoting 17. JrWeathermanFL:


Lowcountry very swampy. Looks like she is building convection.


Quoting 18. HaoleboySurfEC:

What if she loops back off the coast...


Quoting 18. HaoleboySurfEC:

What if she loops back off the coast...



That is a question that I've been asking
If upper level can calm down a bit and it taps back into to Gulfstream I could see Bonnie with a second chance at life
Tropical moisture time of the year

Euro has it also next week.............................................. ............
Bonnie is over. She is a T.D. and will not return to T.S. strength. The coastal water temperatures are in the mid 70s and that aided in weakening Bonnie before making landfall.

Bonnie is a big rain maker. Localized flooding is the major issue with the system. Some areas have seen several inches of rain already, while most areas have only seen modest amounts of rainfall.
The GFS model is picking up on something devoloping near Florida and has been very consistent over the past couple of days. Anyone getting this?
Quoting 22. LargoFl:

Euro has it also next week.............................................. ............


I posted on the last blog that in the then-latest runs of the Canadian, American, and European, a storm was shown around June 8th.

Have to see if that continues, which so far it seems to be.
busy hurricane season imo
The center of Bonnie (T.D.) continues moving inland.
right now just something to watch and wait................................
Thank You Dr. and Happy Memorial Day Weekend to You and all the regulars on the Blog. Glad to see that Bonnie came ashore as a depression with not much fanfare except for the rain. The deadliest weather event for the US the past few days turned out to be the flooding and deaths in Texas and the main story for this coming week will be the very hot temperatures across Conus. I have a forecast for North Florida in the 90's all this coming week and we normally do not see these types of highs until July. I think it is going to be a very hot summer for the US and we may see some heat records broken this Summer.


Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

some bad flooding pics coming out on twitter etc from Bonnie.
Quoting 30. JrWeathermanFL:


yeah guess we had better stay alert next week huh..whew.
Doom! Well it would be a concern if it wasn't the CMC. However, both the GFS and European are showing something next week. So, since it's almost June 1 I am off to the store to update my hurricane supplies.

Quoting 32. LargoFl:

yeah guess we had better stay alert next week huh..whew.


Except it doesn't look very tropical

it looks like most if not all the models are picking up a storm next week,but are changing where it hits and goes run to run...just something to watch right now..comes maybe Tuesday or so we start to believe.
Oddly enough, right now is the windiest we have seen so far in the Savannah area. Winds sustained 25mph gusting 35. Pressure dropping again,too- it is apparent on satellite what is left of Bonnie is sliding back this way.

Link
More Locally Heavy Rain For Flood-Weary Texas This Week

As we move into the new week, a dip in the jet stream, or trough, will move into the southwestern U.S. This pattern has repeated itself several times in recent months resulting in many heavy rain and flooding events for parts of Texas.

By midweek the trough will slide into western Texas. Plenty of moisture will once more be transported into Texas from the Pacific Ocean aloft and from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface. The result will be more locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for a significant portion of the Lone Star State.


Link
Santee River expected to reach flood stage [Link], the lower Harbor River area seeing the heaviest of the rain right now.
Quoting 36. SavannahStorm:

Oddly enough, right now is the windiest we have seen so far in the Savannah area. Winds sustained 25mph gusting 35. Pressure dropping again,too- it is apparent on satellite what is left of Bonnie is sliding back this way.

Link


Which I think is what the GFS showed for Bonnie a few days ago. Movement as far south as even Florida, but I doubt she'll go that far
Quoting 31. LargoFl:

some bad flooding pics coming out on twitter etc from Bonnie.


Mesonet reported over 5" at Swainsboro Emanuel County Airport, GA.

5.93" at SAVANNAH RIVER AT BURTONS FERRY NEAR HILLTONIA 9 ENE, GA
Quoting 34. JrWeathermanFL:



Except it doesn't look very tropical




So the GEM is currentry forcasting a Noreaster in so fla...in June? That may be why I haven't looked at that model much.
Quoting 41. ElConando:



So the GEM is currentry forcasting a Noreaster in so fla...in June? That may be why I haven't looked at that model much.


Seems realistic :P
Quoting 33. Huracaneer:

Doom! Well it would be a concern if it wasn't the CMC. However, both the GFS and European are showing something next week. So, since it's almost June 1 I am off to the store to update my hurricane supplies.




i think this may be the year that S FL and other parts of the USA will run out of luck for a major US land fall it that luck may run out vary vary early this season
For SE GA

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
STATESBORO...BAY...LANIER...BROOKLET...STILSON...M ELDRIM...LEEFIELD AND
MARLOW.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND ANOTHER BAND OF VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LEEFIELD TO STILSON...AND PINEORA TO EDEN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BULLOCH
COUNTY DISPATCH HAS ALREADY REPORTED A COUPLE OF AREA PONDS
OVERFLOWING...WHICH HAS MADE HAGAN MILL POND ROAD AND ALEX KNIGHT
ROAD IMPASSABLE.
Quoting 43. Tazmanian:



i think this may be the year that S FL and other parts of the USA will run out of luck for a major US land fall it that luck may run out vary vary early this season


You could very well be right Taz. We already have 2! and it's not even June 1. Which is why I am seriously checking my supplies. Never hurts to be ready.
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:

The center of Bonnie (T.D.) continues moving inland.



For the heavy rain band in extreme southern SC

* Flood Advisory for minor flooding for poor drainage areas for...
Hampton County in southeastern South Carolina...
Beaufort County in southeastern South Carolina...
Jasper County in southeastern South Carolina...

* until 300 PM EDT

* at 103 PM EDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor
drainage areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Yemassee... Lake Warren State Park... Varnville... Estill... Furman...
Scotia... Early Branch and Almeda intersection.

An area of very intense rainfall has set up from around Yemassee
westward to around Nixville and Estill. Hourly rainfall rates of up
to 2 inches per hour will be possible and additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected through 3 PM.
Quoting 12. BahaHurican:

Looks like we may get another system next week ... coming up from your way....
perhaps I am watchin models an impulse of energy will form where and how strong remains too be seen
2012 also had 2 named storms before June 1 and 4 storms before July.
Explosive cloud tops on the south side of the circulation. Interesting setup producing extremely heavy rainfall over that area.
The GFS model is picking up on something devoloping near Florida and has been very consistent over the past couple of days. Anyone getting this?
Quoting 48. JrWeathermanFL:

2012 also had 2 named storms before June 1 and 4 storms before July.


and 19 named storms for that season so 2016 could vary well be like 2012 but with may more USA land falls then 2012 had
Quoting 51. birdsrock2016:

The GFS model is picking up on something devoloping near Florida and has been very consistent over the past couple of days. Anyone getting this?


well you stop asking the same ? and learn too read back in the commits that will be the fastest way too learn too find the ?s you are looking for
Quoting 51. birdsrock2016:

The GFS model is picking up on something devoloping near Florida and has been very consistent over the past couple of days. Anyone getting this?


don't you read previous posts before posting? and it's 3 days away before we have any real clue on something that might develop in 5-7 days
02L/TD/B/XX
Sorry Tazmanian, I will make sure to do that next time.
WunderPhotos has some TX flooding pics and some others from the storms in the midwest this past week. Here is a tornado Charles/StormyPleasures caught.
The I-95 corridor in South Carolina is being dumped with rain. Hopefully the roads are still passable there as there will probably be a lot of traffic heading into Memorial Day.


Forests on fire: ‘no attempt will be made to extinguish 219 million hectares of burning trees’

These vast tracts of forest have been labelled ‘distant and hard-to-reach territories’, and as such it is officially permitted not to extinguish forest fires if they do not constitute a threat to settlements or if a fire fighting operation is extremely expensive.

At the same time, there is official recognition that some regions in Siberia are underreporting the extent of forest fires for ‘political reasons’, an accusation long made by environmental campaigners.

Some 86% of forest in Sakha – also known as Yakutia, and the largest constituent of the Russian Federation – is deemed to fall into the category of ‘distant and hard-to-reach territories’, according to reports.


Link
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather associated with a surface trough of
low pressure has formed a little more than 1000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions do not appear conducive for significant development
while this system meanders slowly during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to develop around mid-week about
900 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance as it moves
westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Significant weather advisory for frequent to excessive
lightning... small hail and 45 to 55 mph winds for central Palm Beach
County until 315 PM EDT...

* at 213 PM EDT... Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles northwest of
North County Airport to near Loxahatchee NWR. These storms were
nearly stationary.

* Frequent to excessive lightning... gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...
small hail... torrential downpours... or a combination of these are
possible. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in
Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds
can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around unsecured
small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm
passes.

* Locations impacted include...
West Palm Beach... Wellington... Palm Beach Gardens...
Royal Palm Beach... Parkland... lion country safari park...
Loxahatchee NWR... the acreage... Loxahatchee Groves... Mission Bay...
North County Airport... whisper walk... hamptons at Boca Raton...
sandalfoot Cove... Jupiter farms...
South County Regional Park and caloosa.


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0262
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN GA/SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 291824Z - 300024Z

SUMMARY...INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN SC/NC CONTINUES TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF BONNIE'S CENTER. HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN CORES CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR AND WEST OF BONNIE'S CENTER, WHICH MEANDERED WESTWARD THROUGH 1 PM/17Z AROUND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN SOUTHEAST GA AND A LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE THE GA COAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE DRIFTED BACK TO THE EAST IN THE 2 PM/18Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SC. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTING THE USUAL DIURNAL CYCLE AND ALLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SPC MESOANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE CIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE 1000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE IN NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHERN NC TO ADVECT IN AND SPARK NEW CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.6-1.9" PER GPS VALUES AND RAP MASS FIELDS. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES TO BE CYCLONIC AT 20-35 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.

THE 06Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOW A SPIKE IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC THROUGH 00Z. THE 12Z MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-4" OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH COULD FALL QUICKLY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5". OVERALL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRESUMABLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST EVENTUALLY. CONSIDERING THAT 5-9" OF RAIN WHICH HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC PER RADAR ESTIMATES AND COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY CAUSED BY DISPERSION IN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND BONNIE'S ERRATIC MOTION TODAY, CHOSE THE POSSIBLE OVER THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

ROTH
A lot of disparaging comments yesterday about Bonnie. Bonnie may have been a weak storm, that doesn't mean people and property won't be affected. I think many of us forget that flooding kills more than hurricanes and tornadoes combined. While the vast majority won't be affected by Bonnie, there are those who are being affected and those that will be affected as this system slowly moves away by Wednesday.
66. IDTH
Quoting 50. GeoffreyWPB:



I'm noticing that huge moisture plume to the Bonnie's south is starting to get pulled up. It looks like there may be more rain that has yet to come. People underestimate tropical storms but they can dump a copious amount of rainfall in an area, especially if it's stalled out like Bonnie is now.
Quoting 66. IDTH:


I'm noticing that huge moisture plume to the Bonnie's south is starting to get pulled up. It looks like there may be more rain that has yet to come. People underestimate tropical storms but they can dump a copious amount of rainfall in an area, especially if it's stalled out like Bonnie is now.


all most like the same set up we had with JQ last year even no JQ was heading out too sea SC and NC still got a lot of rain from the moisture plume that came up from the S
The 12z ECMWF has a weak tropical storm moving ashore south of Tampa, Florida, barely missing the NC coastline on its way out.
WOW! NWS in Melbourne said 30% chance of storms today here on the coast. 40 to 50% further south. They should have took another look at there forecast. It's a monsoon right now here in Melbourne with Thunderstorms. Geez! I was just getting ready to grill and I washed and waxed my truck this morning. Go figure!
70. IDTH
Quoting 67. Tazmanian:



all most like the same set up we had with JQ last year even no JQ was heading out too sea SC and NC still got a lot of rain from the moisture plume that came up from the S

Exactly what I was thinking.
Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z ECMWF has a weak tropical storm moving ashore south of Tampa, Florida, barely missing the NC coastline on its way out.


Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z ECMWF has a weak tropical storm moving ashore south of Tampa, Florida, barely missing the NC coastline on its way out.


dos it show any thing else after words?
Gonna head home but I see we have a "land cane" burst in SC near the center of ex-Bonnie. The coc is near watery and swampy Carolina lowlands region and reminds me of what happened over the Everglades several years ago when Wilma crossed Florida in 2005 and swampy, warm waters, and very flat terrain did little to slow down the eye wall as is crossed the State to the East coast. It is far from over for the folks in the Carolinas and parts to the immediate North it seems:


Southeast sector loop


Quoting 69. hurricanewatcher61:

WOW! NWS in Melbourne said 30% chance of storms today here on the coast. 40 to 50% further south. They should have took another look at there forecast. It's a monsoon right now here in Melbourne with Thunderstorms. Geez! I was just getting ready to grill and I washed and waxed my truck this morning. Go figure!

That was a tough one. Agreed with the forecast til mid morning, something about the wet feel of the air and look of the clouds. It was hot. Even when it started blowing up over Lake Washington looked like the east coast seabreeze might prevail for a moment, but then it came back on us, had a little small hail even. Saved the ponies between cells before the lightning got crazy..


Here's gssell Webcam in Blackville, SC



Fixed the embedding of Charles' pic in my last comment. Having a time remembering to take the s off.
Rookie Driver(at Indy) Alexander Rossi just won the 100th running of the Indy 500....
GFS Ensembles now hinting at tropical development. Generally showing a more favorable environment. Looks like High Pressure nearby should "ventilate" our possible system.
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:

Explosive cloud tops on the south side of the circulation. Interesting setup producing extremely heavy rainfall over that area.


Anyone else seeing a southwest motion or maybe trying to even throw energy back out over the water?
78. IDTH
Quoting 76. tiggerhurricanes2001:

GFS Ensembles now hinting at tropical development. Generally showing a more favorable environment. Looks like High Pressure nearby should "ventilate" our possible system.

It won't have a problem with warm water either. That's a really good environment for it to ventilate as well, dry air is the question I have but if this held up, this would be a good spot to expect a more well developed storm than the one we had with Bonnie.
Heavy bands working their way towards the Triangle

I-95, US-17 closed near SC/GA line due to flooding [Link]
The pattern is one that has supported development in the past We just have to see if a seedling takes advantage and if the models are consistent.
Such great fun surfing at Surf City NC! Going back out for one more round. Not up to the standards set off Corolla NC at 3 a.m. September 27, 1985, surfing with 50 knot winds and a barometric pressure of 28.30", but still fun!
Quoting 69. hurricanewatcher61:

WOW! NWS in Melbourne said 30% chance of storms today here on the coast. 40 to 50% further south. They should have took another look at there forecast. It's a monsoon right now here in Melbourne with Thunderstorms. Geez! I was just getting ready to grill and I washed and waxed my truck this morning. Go figure!
30% chance of precipitation means a 30% chance of precipitation. You were part of the 30%. The forecast was correct.
Quoting 81. washingtonian115:

The pattern is one that has supported development in the past We just have to see if a seedling takes advantage and if the models are consistent.

Exactly. But I'm still worried about the shear. I don't think it'll go down substantially in a matter of 10 days.
Yup, suggested that earlier. It is over the swampy, warm Lowcountry and appears to be possibly looping back toward the coast.

Quoting 77. winter123:


Anyone else seeing a southwest motion or maybe trying to even throw energy back out over the water?
The 760hr GFS is showing 400 Hurricanes attacking the East Coast all at once!
I'm a new poster but long time observer on WU and I still can't get over peoples attachment to the computer models.
There's probably the same chance of you winning a billion dollar lottery as there is a 384hr GFS forecast coming to fruition.
Remember, as a wise man once said 'All models are wrong - but some models are useful.'
0230 PM FLASH FLOOD FAIRFAX 32.96N 81.24W
05/29/2016 ALLENDALE SC EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 278 WAS BEING CLOSED DUE TO WATER COVERING THE
ROAD.

1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW MIDDLETON PLACE 32.95N 80.17W
05/29/2016 E0.00 INCH DORCHESTER SC EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED IN
EASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY MAINLY ALONG ASHLEY PHOSPHATE
BLVD BETWEEN I-26 AND DORCHESTER RD


0900 AM FLASH FLOOD RIDGELAND 32.49N 80.98W
05/29/2016 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

WARNING POINT REPORTS NUMEROUS SECONDARY ROADS FLOODED
OR CLOSED AROUND RIDGELAND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CALF
PEN BAY RD...CAPTAIN BILL RD...AND FRONTAGE RD


0900 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE RIDGELAND 32.50N 80.97W
05/29/2016 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

WARNING POINT REPORTS THAT INTERSTATE 95 SOUTHBOUND IS
CLOSED BETWEEN EXITS 24 AND 18 DUE TO FLOODING


0417 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 E SUN CITY 32.29N 80.94W
05/29/2016 BEAUFORT SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 170 AND HWY 278 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING UNTIL
AROUND 745 AM.

0800 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 ENE RIDGELAND 32.48N 80.97W
05/29/2016 JASPER SC PUBLIC

REPORT RECEIVED OF ABOUT A FOOT OF WATER IN A RESIDENCE
ON CAPTAIN BILL ROAD
Pretty strong model agreement that Bonnie (T.D.) moves up the coast to the north/northeast and eventually back out to sea off the coast of Virginia. Very cold water up there and the system will eventually become a non-tropical low.
Could the CARIBBEAN actually see a storm? I didn't know storms even formed there (JK, of course)

The last Storm to form in the Caribbean was TS Hanna 2014. The last hurricane in the CAR was Sandy. Clearly the region has been a tropical dead zone from 2013-2015, but will that change in 2016?
Quoting 73. weathermanwannabe:

Gonna head home but I see we have a "land cane" burst in SC near the center of ex-Bonnie. The coc is near watery and swampy Carolina lowlands region and reminds me of what happened over the Everglades several years ago when Wilma crossed Florida in 2005 and swampy, warm waters, and very flat terrain did little to slow down the eye wall as is crossed the State to the East coast. It is far from over for the folks in the Carolinas and parts to the immediate North it seems:


Southeast sector loop





I thought Wilma didn't slow down much due to it's brisk forward motion, not what was below. Bonnie is just drifting.
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:



I thought Wilma didn't slow down much due to it's brisk forward motion, not what was below. Bonnie is just drifting.



Yeah the problem with Bonnie is that it's basically stationary and producing rainfall over the same isolated area.
Wilma's huge eye crossing south Florida.
Hopefully the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 won't get rained out today. Looks good there now.
Quoting 93. EricfromGreenvilleSC:

Hopefully the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 won't get rained out today. Looks good there now.


I wouldn't hold my breath on that one... they do have those nice track dryers though.
What a stormy weekend in Europe... Fortunately I got spared the bad weather, but unfortunately some people & kids weren't spared the lightning strikes, nor the destruction. Much chaos in some places, situation described as "rarely ever seen" by the maire in a small French town hit by flash floods. 130.000 lightnings have been recorded over the country yesterday. Damaging large hail reported in several locations, in France, also in other countries (see map). Good looking supercells forming all over Western Europe due to a "blocking pattern" of thunderstorms, fuelled by the interaction between the last descending cold airmasses from the Arctic region and the tropical airmasses that have started moving in from the south, all wraping around a depression centered on the south of Germany. This pattern will hold on in the next hours, there is currently a huge supercell centered over southeastern Germany that's quite a view.
Stormy weather strikes Germany, DW.com, May 29.
Deadly European lightning storms to continue for another three days before coming to UK
The Independent, May 29.
BANK HOLIDAY WASHOUT: Two week's rain to fall in HOURS as gales batter Britain
Sunday Express, May 29.

Area under threat/reported damage by type :
CMC up to it usual exagerated projections.
We drove through the flooding, now flooded I95, we probably should have stopped but at the time no cops were there.
In the am we had heavy rain, this afternoon on and off showers.
Currently in Charlotte, getting ready to go for dinner.
Was disappointed Bonnie was downgraded before we got under her.
Looking at the last radar frames of the Charleston Radar, it appears Bonnie is drifting to the SW very slowly.
95. 999Ai2016

Fire in the Sky — More Than 330,000 Lightning Strikes Hit Europe in Just Eight Hours

“Whatever happened to normal weather? Earth has always experienced epic storms, debilitating drought, and biblical floods. But lately it seems the treadmill of disruptive weather has been set to fast-forward.” — Paul Douglas.

Link
The top of Texas is really rockin'

Amarillo Radar

Thunderstruck: Lightning Will Increase With Warming

Climate Central, November 13th, 2014.

I remember in Bangladesh a few days ago, too many people killed/injured by lightning during just one or two days of thunderstorms, when Roanu was approaching the country.
its time too look back wish model run did the best job with Bonnie?
Quoting 102. Tazmanian:

its time too look back wish model run did the best job with Bonnie?


Easy answer: ECMWF
Anyone else seeing the Circulation creeping South around Jacksonboro? Looks to be sliding back towards the coastline?
Mandatory Evacuation Issued for Rosenberg, Texas, As Floods Turn Deadly

A second Texas city will force residents to evacuate their homes on Sunday, as rising flood waters from the Brazos River turned deadly over the weekend.

Surging water levels prompted officials in Rosenberg, a town in Fort Bend county, approximately 35 miles south of Houston, to issue a mandatory evacuation starting today at 2 p.m. local time. According to the 2010 census, 31,676 people live in the area.


Link
Quoting 104. FIUStormChaser:

Anyone else seeing the Circulation creeping South around Jacksonboro? Looks to be sliding back towards the coastline?


Ya I'm seeing that too in the last few frames.. I see forecasts saying slow northeast track but it's as if it's steadily creeping the opposite direction
.
Was hoping Bonnie would have been out of here by tomorrow, but it appears we will be getting rain through tomorrow. The rain is west of us now, but that shield will move east once she does.
What did Texas do to tick off mother nature lately?

Quoting 108. nash36:

Was hoping Bonnie would have been out of here by tomorrow, but it appears we will be getting rain through tomorrow. The rain is west of us now, but that shield will move east once she does


It appears that she will have pass over the Charleston area on the way out once again.
Quoting 108. nash36:

Was hoping Bonnie would have been out of here by tomorrow, but it appears we will be getting rain through tomorrow. The rain is west of us now, but that shield will move east once she does.


It seems Bonnie has a closeted loop-de-loop she wants to talk about. Big spin footprint.. 500mile radius.
Quoting 101. 999Ai2016:


Thunderstruck: Lightning Will Increase With Warming

Climate Central, November 13th, 2014.

I remember in Bangladesh a few days ago, too many people killed/injured by lightning during just one or two days of thunderstorms, when Roanu was approaching the country.


Wow. That is a lot of lightning. Wondering how much this global warmer will affect the lightning storms in Florida. My last house there was hit several times in the past 17 years - my neighbors tree caught fire from a strike, and earlier this year, lightning vaporized a water main buried under the street. (10 foot of cast iron pipe just gone). The thunder was so strong it blew the windows out of two houses.
Finally !!

Rain at my home after prolonged drought. .96 inch today and still coming down 😄
Quoting 115. theaccurateone:

bermuda high will allow the few storms that might form if they can fight off the high shear and dust forcaster from july through early october to hook ots this year....
What?
Quoting 117. theaccurateone:

my question every year is how many times will they change the track and forcast intensity of any storm that MIGHT form this year? they will have storms hitting florida 1 hour then s car the next hour then ots the next hour the fizzle out when they said it would a cat 3 ... that happens with almost every storm every year


Model accuracy dwindles with respect to time. They're extremely sensitive to the conditions the models are run with so if any of that changes slightly you'll get different results. If sar were here he'd liken this to his magic 8-ball.
Seems like all the trolls have made their account in the past 4 days to either drum up conspiracies about the nhc or complain that other bloggers here see a active season coming up.
Whoooeee a real frog strangler here in TCI this evening, cisterns overflowing and lots of lightning!
Bonnie approaching Charleston proper from the NW.

See Radar
Quoting 116. kmanislander:

Finally !!

Rain at my home after prolonged drought. .96 inch today and still coming down 😄


Models are showing plenty more rain on its way over the next couple weeks as well. :)







117.

You ask this every year, and every year you have it explained to you like a child (a child who gets banned a lot): just because you're in the cone doesn't mean you're going to get hit. It's an area of uncertainty, meaning that the storm could be in a certain part of the cone in 120 hours or it might not be. Forecasting tropical cyclone dynamics is incredibly complex, because the atmosphere is ever changing and evolving.
Who keeps letting the 2 year olds sign on?
134.
You're right, sometimes they're not. You want to understand why? Take an atmospheric physics class once in your life instead of coming on to WU and complaining year after year.
Interestingly enough analyzing upper level charts and looking at the upper levels of the atmosphere, it appears the LLC is located to the east of the upper level circulation.
Quoting 102. Tazmanian:

its time too look back wish model run did the best job with Bonnie?

Looking at average model position error, in nautical miles at 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr over the life of the storm..

AP05
GFS Ensemble +05 member is the winner..
17.5 43.3 63.5 47.8 33.6

Though had a hard time initializing..
CEMN wasn't far off..
Canadian model Ensemble Mean
31.2 47.1 54.5 8.9 39.1

HWRF did okay..
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
4.4 56.2 86.3 69.5 63.4

..as did the "T" models..
TVCC
Corrected TVCN Consensus
0.4 45.7 56.3 60.1 -

OFCL did well but didn't start trying till the storm was more developed.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0 36.6 20.7 - -

Various ECMWF models are included in this, (GEOS-5 still is not)..
All the ECMWF models didn't start running on the storm til it was more together the best of those was..
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
26.1 10.3 - - -

EGRR is the loser.. someone should check on it..
EGRR
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
2074.2 - - - -


Overall the models handles intensity very well with the average error in kts, averaged over the life of the storm and of all the models..
Average 2.6 5.1 7.7 8.5 10.8

Quoting 116. kmanislander:

Finally !!

Rain at my home after prolonged drought. .96 inch today and still coming down 😄


Lol well I did say the rains were coming

It's been raining on and off up this way for the last few days
Right now it raining and it more steady than the on and off that we've been having past few days

Anyway much more rain on the way with possibly something a little extra next week
Quoting 123. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Whoooeee a real frog strangler here in TCI this evening, cisterns overflowing and lots of lightning!
He lives !!!
Some good news this season is that the drought in northern parts of South America should improve (Colombia/Venezuela), which should lessen the amount of dry/stable air entering into the Atlantic/Caribbean.

2016 South America winter forecast: Mainly dry weather to unfold for Rio Olympics; La Nina may ease drought in Venezuela


Current picture showing plenty of rain firing up across the Caribbean and northern parts of South America:

Quoting 138. Skyepony:


Looking at average model position error, in nautical miles at 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr over the life of the storm..

AP05
GFS Ensemble +05 member is the winner..
17.5 43.3 63.5 47.8 33.6

Though had a hard time initializing..
CEMN wasn't far off..
Canadian model Ensemble Mean
31.2 47.1 54.5 8.9 39.1

HWRF did okay..
HWRF
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model
4.4 56.2 86.3 69.5 63.4

..as did the "T" models..
TVCC
Corrected TVCN Consensus
0.4 45.7 56.3 60.1 -

OFCL did well but didn't start trying till the storm was more developed.
National Hurricane Center (NHC) official forecast (in ATCF system and not from advisory data)
0 36.6 20.7 - -

Various ECMWF models are included in this, (GEOS-5 still is not)..
All the ECMWF models didn't start running on the storm til it was more together the best of those was..
ECMO
ECMWF global model [GTS tracker]
26.1 10.3 - - -

EGRR is the loser.. someone should check on it..
EGRR
UKMET model GTS (Official), with subjective quality control applied to the tracker
2074.2 - - - -


Overall the models handles intensity very well with the average error in kts, averaged over the life of the storm and of all the models..
Average 2.6 5.1 7.7 8.5 10.8





sounds good too me and i agreed
June 1st is just days away and I'm sticking with my original predictions for the season of 15-10-5 and going with an ACE between 115-125.
R-O-L-A-I-D-S
Quoting 139. wunderkidcayman:



Lol well I did say the rains were coming

It's been raining on and off up this way for the last few days
Right now it raining and it more steady than the on and off that we've been having past few days

Anyway much more rain on the way with possibly something a little extra next week


Keep it coming !. 1.07 so far today.
Quoting 129. Envoirment:



Models are showing plenty more rain on its way over the next couple weeks as well. :)










Music to my ears.


finally some much needed rain!
" She's Not Gonna Let Us Out."
Quote from what movie?
First right one gets a cookie
The Perfect Storm?

Quoting 148. K8eCane:

" She's Not Gonna Let Us Out."
Quote from what movie?
First right one gets a cookie
Quoting 149. HaoleboySurfEC:

The Perfect Storm?




That is CORRECT!
That would be awesome in 3D but I dont think I could handle it in 3D
Click station plots. Bonnie's Center continues to drift SE towards the coastline.

Link
Quoting 145. kmanislander:



Keep it coming !. 1.07 so far today.


Yes

Quoting 147. stormpetrol:



finally some much needed rain!


A whole lot more to come with possibly something a little extra too next week
Poor souls. They took a risk to try and save their catch. All because of a broken ice machine. I can't imagine the sea state they ended up fighting.

Quoting 150. K8eCane:



That is CORRECT!
That would be awesome in 3D but I dont think I could handle it in 3D
Quoting 123. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Whoooeee a real frog strangler here in TCI this evening, cisterns overflowing and lots of lightning!
Good to go.... we got our share of rain today also. Still a lot of roadside flooding, but nothing too serious so far .....
Quoting 154. HaoleboySurfEC:

Poor souls. They took a risk to try and save their catch. All because of a broken ice machine. I can't imagine the sea state they ended up fighting.




The loss of the Andrea Gail was horrible, but so was the loss of the rescue helicopter. They lost at least one and just trying to save the poor souls who used such bad judgement.
Coast Guard went way way way way beyond the call. As usual.


Quoting 156. K8eCane:



The loss of the Andrea Gail was horrible, but so was the loss of the rescue helicopter. They lost at least one and just trying to save the poor souls who used such bad judgement.
Quoting 157. HaoleboySurfEC:

Coast Guard went way way way way beyond the call. As usual.





Heros for sure.....
Quoting 151. FIUStormChaser:

Click station plots. Bonnie's Center continues to drift SE towards the coastline.

Link


If bonnie get offshore she might have the second chance of life
Quoting 152. wunderkidcayman:



Yes



A whole lot more to come with possibly something a little extra too next week
Hi Wunderkid ! If this verifies you better hold onto your mustache !
I told you all you will have the switch effect in the western caribbean as a La nina pattern starts to set in.The same thing happened in 2010 after a very dry year in 2009.The caribbean could be opened for business this year unlike the last few.
162. beell
Quoting 105. RobertWC:

Mandatory Evacuation Issued for Rosenberg, Texas, As Floods Turn Deadly

A second Texas city will force residents to evacuate their homes on Sunday, as rising flood waters from the Brazos River turned deadly over the weekend.

Surging water levels prompted officials in Rosenberg, a town in Fort Bend county, approximately 35 miles south of Houston, to issue a mandatory evacuation starting today at 2 p.m. local time. According to the 2010 census, 31,676 people live in the area.


Link


Not to take anything away from the very real and personal losses in Texas with a historic river crest on the Brazos, the mandatory evacuations in Rosenberg should be much less than 31,676 people. ABC may be a bit guilty of some poor journalism.

An evac map from the City of Rosenberg, Tx contained in your link. The grey areas are under evacuation orders.






Quoting 162. beell:
Not to take anything away from the very real and personal losses in Texas with a historic river crest on the Brazos, the mandatory evacuations in Rosenburg should be much less than 31,676 people. ABC may be a bit guilty of some poor journalism.
Rosenberg. They cite the total population of the town I think.
Quoting 78. IDTH:


It won't have a problem with warm water either. That's a really good environment for it to ventilate as well, dry air is the question I have but if this held up, this would be a good spot to expect a more well developed storm than the one we had with Bonnie.



Does it look like that thing will eventually make landfall in SE TX?
Quoting 159. wunderkidcayman:



If bonnie get offshore she might have the second chance of life


She wouldn't be able to strengthen due to the harsh upper level winds, but she would be able to inject more rain into the moisture pipeline over South and North Carolina.
166. beell
Quoting 163. bappit:

Rosenberg. They cite the total population of the town I think.


What was "cited" is a direct quote from the ABC piece.

Surging water levels prompted officials in Rosenberg, a town in Fort Bend county, approximately 35 miles south of Houston, to issue a mandatory evacuation starting today at 2 p.m. local time. According to the 2010 census, 31,676 people live in the area.

Folks outside of Texas may assume 31,000 people were under evacuation orders. Maybe my interpretation is skewed...
:)

Quoting 161. washingtonian115:

I told you all you will have the switch effect in the western caribbean as a La nina pattern starts to set in.The same thing happened in 2010 after a very dry year in 2009.The caribbean could be opened for business this year unlike the last few years.


I'm thinking the same thing and another key factor besides the warm waters and the La Nina on its way is the fact instability should be average to above average in the Caribbean which has been way down in recent years as well. I also believe wind shear will not be as much of a problem in that area and should be near average. Interesting season ahead
Quoting 160. Llamaluvr:

Hi Wunderkid ! If this verifies you better hold onto your mustache !


Kinda hard to when it's all shaved off

Quoting 161. washingtonian115:

I told you all you will have the switch effect in the western caribbean as a La nina pattern starts to set in.The same thing happened in 2010 after a very dry year in 2009.The caribbean could be opened for business this year unlike the last few years.

Agreed

Quoting 165. FIUStormChaser:



She wouldn't be able to strengthen due to the harsh upper level winds, but she would be able to inject more rain into the moisture pipeline over South and North Carolina.

Shear has been falling actually its lower than what it was earlier today

We wait and see

But IMO Bonnie decided she wasn't finished just yet
Quoting 167. WeatherkidJoe2323:



I'm thinking the same thing and another key factor besides the warm waters and the La Nina on its way is the fact instability should be average to above average in the Caribbean which has been way down in recent years as well. I also believe wind shear will not be as much of a problem in that area and should be near average. Interesting season ahead


Well since Mar/Apr it's been average or above average and I'd expect it to increase as the weeks and months go by
Quoting 168. wunderkidcayman:



Kinda hard to when it's all shaved off


This isn't expected to happen for a week or so, you could regrow it and be the ultimate meteorologist/babe magnet.
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



Well since Mar/Apr it's been average or above average and I'd expect it to increase as the weeks and months go by


but what effect will this have on texas?
According to trends on Radar, the center of Bonnie is now over the west suburbs of Charleston.
173. beell
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The much anticipated reduction in Bonnie's forward motion appears to have occurred this afternoon. Since the previous advisory, the tropical cyclone jogged westward and has become nearly stationary just northwest of Charleston, South Carolina. The highest wind observations this afternoon have been 25-30 kt at the Fort Pulaski C-Man site near the Georgia/South Carolina border around 1700 UTC. Since the time, the highest wind reports have been 20-25 kt over water, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 25 kt for this advisory.

Bonnie is expected to meander near the south-central coast of South Carolina overnight, before beginning a northeastward motion on Monday around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. In 2 to 3 days, a slightly faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast as the low- to mid-level westerly flow off the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens. The global models are in generally good agreement of this scenario, but there are some forward speed differences, especially beyond 72 hours. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is once again close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus.

Since a portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water during the next few days, little change in strength is expected. After exiting the coast of North Carolina in about 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cool waters, which should cause Bonnie to become post-tropical.

Locally heavy rains continue to be the primary concern from Bonnie. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible.

$$ Forecaster Brown
Quoting 171. pureet1948:



but what effect will this have on texas?


?? I don't know what the instability values are for the GOM
Quoting 172. FIUStormChaser:

According to trends on Radar, the center of Bonnie is now over the west suburbs of Charleston.


Ut oh. I heard Shadow Moss was already swimming this morning....
Quoting 166. beell:
What was "cited" is a direct quote from the ABC piece.

Surging water levels prompted officials in Rosenberg, a town in Fort Bend county, approximately 35 miles south of Houston, to issue a mandatory evacuation starting today at 2 p.m. local time. According to the 2010 census, 31,676 people live in the area.

Folks outside of Texas may assume 31,000 people were under evacuation orders. Maybe my interpretation is skewed...
:)
I was agreeing with you. Just corrected the spelling of the name. Maybe I'll drive over there and rubberneck. That will help things I'm sure.
178. beell
Quoting 177. bappit:

I was agreeing with you. Just corrected the spelling of the name. Maybe I'll drive over there and rubberneck. That will help things I'm sure.


LOL!
Thank you on the spelling correction!
Well the out flow boundary just came by from this nasty little thing:

Lubbock Radar

Knocked out the power for 45 mins. Really a strange system . storms moving West to East, the whole complex drifting South.

This just made the 2016 cotton crop. If hell doesn't come to breakfast next week.

Quoting 171. pureet1948:



but what effect will this have on texas?

Nothing directly it all depends what the GOM is like for Texas impacts from tropical systems
After reviewing the Radar data for Bonnie, it seems as if there were two possible areas where then center of circulation could have been.
bappit:

Are you a lawyer, or an engineer ?
Quoting 181. hotroddan:

After reviewing the Radar data for Bonnie, it seems as if there were two possible areas where then center of circulation could have been.

Appears to be over the Charleston area or just offshore.
Quoting 180. MrTornadochase:


Nothing directly it all depends what the GOM is like for Texas impacts


See this -

More Locally Heavy Rain For Flood-Weary Texas This Week

As we move into the new week, a dip in the jet stream, or trough, will move into the southwestern U.S. This pattern has repeated itself several times in recent months resulting in many heavy rain and flooding events for parts of Texas.

By midweek the trough will slide into western Texas. Plenty of moisture will once more be transported into Texas from the Pacific Ocean aloft and from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface. The result will be more locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for a significant portion of the Lone Star State.


Link
Quoting 185. RobertWC:



See this -

More Locally Heavy Rain For Flood-Weary Texas This Week

As we move into the new week, a dip in the jet stream, or trough, will move into the southwestern U.S. This pattern has repeated itself several times in recent months resulting in many heavy rain and flooding events for parts of Texas.

By midweek the trough will slide into western Texas. Plenty of moisture will once more be transported into Texas from the Pacific Ocean aloft and from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface. The result will be more locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for a significant portion of the Lone Star State.


Link



DoctorMu on KHOU.COM weather forum says :

"The high CAPE and southern jet predictions are out in West Texas this week though...so (Houston has) that going for us. The GFS is sticking to prediction of rainfall exceeding 1 inch from the Hill Country west...but we'll see how this plays out in the next few days."




and he also says:

"18z GFS has a broader coastal low, but 3-5 inches of rain over 72 hours with a bullseye near Brenham."




Is it possible, based on what Dr. Mu just said, that Houston might get off easier on Thursday and Friday than it did last week? Would really like to know.
187. beell
Quoting 179. RobertWC:

Well the out flow boundary just came by from this nasty little thing:

Lubbock Radar

Knocked out the power for 45 mins. Really a strange system . storms moving West to East, the whole complex drifting South.

This just made the 2016 cotton crop. If hell doesn't come to breakfast next week.




The southern motion is due to development of a "cold pool" and its leading gust front (and new convection) almost exactly perpendicular to the lower tropospheric flow (from the south). Development or movement by propagation.

Not too terribly strange. Messy for sure.

Long time lurker, finally signed in to say this. This is strictly amateur, but I thought I'd take a look at 1998, post El Nino, and 1999, hurricane seasons. Now I know a lot has changed, but it might be worth taking a look at 1998. If this El Nino was bigger than but similar to the 1997-98 one, we are in for a very dodgy time this summer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Atlantic_hurri cane_season

It's too early to tell, and I know there are other factors such as that mid-Atlantic ridge, but I don't think this is a good time to get complacent.

In an election year, it might get people's attention, but I'd hate to see people suffer just to make a point. My personal opinion is that the Atlantic and the Gulf are going to see some, possibly considerable, action. It's getting hot in here.
189. beell
Hit 79F here today, if this keeps up I'm moving to the North slope.. this is ridiculously hot...
Not good for sea ice/snow cover :

May 28 - June 7 :
Quoting 190. Dakster:

Hit 79F here today, if this keeps up I'm moving to the North slope.. this is ridiculously hot...


Hotter than here...lol, was 61.4/75.4 here today, under the Gloom till about 2PM...
Quoting 190. Dakster:

Hit 79F here today, if this keeps up I'm moving to the North slope.. this is ridiculously hot...


really?? 79 is hot? that is really nic weather there try 105 and 115 and then tell me if 79 is hot
Quoting 192. PedleyCA:



Hotter than here...lol, was 61.4/75.4 here today, under the Gloom till about 2PM...


The world is upside down or something. 2 years ago this weekend it was snowing here.

SoCal is becoming the next desert and Texas is under water. They found turtles in some of the ponds/lakes here that shouldn't be able to survive here. Waiting for snakes to show up next.
Quoting 190. Dakster:

Hit 79F here today, if this keeps up I'm moving to the North slope.. this is ridiculously hot...


Dakster, you call that ridiculously hot? Lol. Don't move to FL then, 90s are normal and 100-110 isn't unfrequent. Actually hit 101 yesterday here.

Finally got my first good thunderstorms of the year here the past couple weeks, can't wait to get more. Just hope this won't be an active hurricane season.....FL is waaaayyy too overdue for a major hurricane landfall, and I don't wanna be in the way of that....
Quoting 193. Tazmanian:



really?? 79 is hot? that is really nic weather there try 105 and 115 and then tell me if 79 is hot


Inside of the house hit 85F. No AC here. In Miami at least I had AC in the house. If it's 115F, I guarantee that there is AC in the house.... I am about ready to go out and buy a room AC.

And I am very heat intolerant - part of my messed up metabolism that made us move to the Last Frontier.
Well Bonnie was kinda...........underwhelming. ha
Quoting 196. Dakster:



Inside of the house hit 85F. No AC here. In Miami at least I had AC in the house. If it's 115F, I guarantee that there is AC in the house.... I am about ready to go out and buy a room AC.

And I am very heat intolerant - part of my messed up metabolism that made us move to the Last Frontier.


looks like its time too sell and buy a new house
Quoting 185. RobertWC:



See this -

More Locally Heavy Rain For Flood-Weary Texas This Week

As we move into the new week, a dip in the jet stream, or trough, will move into the southwestern U.S. This pattern has repeated itself several times in recent months resulting in many heavy rain and flooding events for parts of Texas.

By midweek the trough will slide into western Texas. Plenty of moisture will once more be transported into Texas from the Pacific Ocean aloft and from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface. The result will be more locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for a significant portion of the Lone Star State.


Link

I know Texas has been through some terrible flooding the past few months and I wasn't trying to say Texas hasn't had any impacts, I was just stating that if conditions aren't good for tropical development in the GOM there wont be any Direct impacts from tropical cyclones In Texas
Quoting 195. Weathergirlklein:



Dakster, you call that ridiculously hot? Lol. Don't move to FL then, 90s are normal and 100-110 isn't unfrequent. Actually hit 101 yesterday here.

Finally got my first good thunderstorms of the year here the past couple weeks, can't wait to get more. Just hope this won't be an active hurricane season.....FL is waaaayyy too overdue for a major hurricane landfall, and I don't wanna be in the way of that....


I did over 40 years in South Florida... Very aware of the heat and storms... Was in South Dade when Andrew roared through in 1992. And of course the very bad years of 2004 and 2005 which damaged our house too.

I have zero intention of ever going to an area where the temp is over 80F, unless I have to - really I don't like it over 70F. I can't wait for winter to come back here. I do the best in the +20F - +40F range. Still properly dressed as I am not super human. But I have been known to walk outside in the snow barefoot with only shorts and a t-shirt on for brief periods of time to cool off.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300231
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country
of South Carolina this evening. Satellite and radar data indicate
that the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking
in coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the
circulation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer
bands over eastern North Carolina. The circulation of the system
has become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of
multiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is
quite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a
little higher than reports from the nearby surface observations.

Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the
latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift,
or 160/1 kt. The depression should move slowly northeastward or
east-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches
the cyclone. After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or
east-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along
the northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system. This
steering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants,
across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and
then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean. The new track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one
to come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF
consensus.

Land interaction during the next few days combined with persistent
southerly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track
should prevent Bonnie from restrengthening. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast
period, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and
become a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another
possibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens
into a trough before it becomes a remnant low.

The primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy
rainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been
reported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 32.8N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 31/0000Z 33.5N 79.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 31/1200Z 33.9N 78.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 01/0000Z 34.4N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/0000Z 35.4N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0000Z 37.0N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 198. Tazmanian:



looks like its time too sell and buy a new house


Had to rent up here for now... But I'm telling you, we keep breaking these heat records. I'm going to Greenland or the North Slope...
Quoting 189. beell:




Look at that Gust Front!
"Bonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the
latest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift,
or 160/1 kt"

Seems what I was observing on radar was correct, good to put my knowledge to the test.
Quoting 197. WeatherBAC:

Well Bonnie was kinda...........underwhelming. ha


still currently underwhelming satellite wise
Quoting 202. Dakster:



Had to rent up here for now... But I'm telling you, we keep breaking these heat records. I'm going to Greenland or the North Slope...


why not moved here you get nic cool CA fall and winter like temper in the summer and if you can with stanned the super cold air in the winter time and snow then this is the place for you and all blogers that can not with stan the summer like tempers and more in joy the fall and winter time temper

https://www.wunderground.com/US/AK/Anchorage.html
Zach Daniel %u200F@ZachDanielCBS6 3h3 hours ago
UNBELIEVABLE flooding on I-95 between Hilton Head and Savannah! Traffic is backed up over 35 miles! #Bonnie

Bonnie from 37.000 feet above
Link
RIP TD Bonnie, she is giving her last breaths while being torn apart by wind shear.
Quoting 203. WeatherBAC:



Look at that Gust Front!


Oh, dang, yep. That is one clear gust front there. I think that's the first time I've looked at a radar loop and spotted the gust front within 10 seconds lol
Quoting 206. Tazmanian:



why not moved here you get nic cool CA fall and winter like temper in the summer and if you can with stanned the super cold air in the winter time and snow then this is the place for you and all blogers that can not with stan the summer like tempers and more in joy the fall and winter time temper

https://www.wunderground.com/US/AK/Anchorage.html


Thanks for the invite Taz. That means a lot to me.
Quoting 210. Dakster:



Thanks for the invite Taz. That means a lot to me.


welcome
Do you think that the NHC will stop issuing advisories on TD Bonnie soon? She is showing signs of shear and it seems like it is starting to weaken significantly.
Nice gully washer for sure.
Quoting 212. birdsrock2016:

Do you think that the NHC will stop issuing advisories on TD Bonnie soon? She is showing signs of shear and it seems like it is starting to weaken significantly.

NHC is forecasting Bonnie to stay tropical for a few more days but you never know.
Quoting 198. Tazmanian:



looks like its time too sell and buy a new house
To be fair Taz, nobody expects it to be hot in Alaska .... that's why Dax moved there from FL .....

Bonnie is now off shore.
Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

Zach Daniel %u200F@ZachDanielCBS6 3h3 hours ago
UNBELIEVABLE flooding on I-95 between Hilton Head and Savannah! Traffic is backed up over 35 miles! #Bonnie

Bonnie from 37.000 feet above
Link
Guess Bonnie wasn't as "nothing" a storm as some have stated / implied ....

But we mostly expected the rainfall. That part of SC is mostly underwater to begin with .... 5 inches of rain in less than 24 hours is going to mean the lowest areas, the creeks and so, are going to "take on water", as the old people used to say down here.
Bonnie is now offshore.
Quoting 212. birdsrock2016:

Do you think that the NHC will stop issuing advisories on TD Bonnie soon? She is showing signs of shear and it seems like it is starting to weaken significantly.
Prolly not until it opens out or gets absorbed....
Quoting 213. wxgeek723:

Nice gully washer for sure.

Looks like some parts of New England are going to be picking up some of that moisture tomorrow morning ....
Quoting 202. Dakster:



Had to rent up here for now... But I'm telling you, we keep breaking these heat records. I'm going to Greenland or the North Slope...


I read recently Putin will be giving homesteader rights in Siberia; ala mid-west 1800's ;) I'm with you though, I'd love somewhere that was about 60' year round, or 60' average max in summer, but not too sub-zero in winter. After my degree is done, maybe will try Scotland.
I guess I was right about Bonnie heading back to the coast

Anyway busy week ahead
What next for Bonnie
CPC Niño update
BOM AU Niño update
CSU '16 season update
Eyeing on possible W-NW Caribbean-GOM-FL storm

I'm off for now might pop in and out overnight but see y'all in the morning
Ugh, I can't make an updated post on my blog (for some reason it won't post)....I hate when that happens.

FYI...it seems the model hint at the possibility of some tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea a little over a week from now as a favorable upper ridge builds over the W Carib. Anyone else noticed?
Quoting 194. Dakster:



The world is upside down or something. 2 years ago this weekend it was snowing here.

SoCal is becoming the next desert and Texas is under water. They found turtles in some of the ponds/lakes here that shouldn't be able to survive here. Waiting for snakes to show up next.



I think it'd be a good idea if everybody in SE TX just started packing their suitcases, get in their cars and leave---forever.
In post #29 weathermanwannabe mentioned it was going to be hot across the CONUS this week. That is certainly true here in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. The forecast for Tuesday through Sunday is temperatures in the high 80s to 90 which is very unusual this time of the year. South of here in places like Medford, OR and Redding, CA it will be even hotter, pushing 100 on a couple of days.
I was surprised that Bonnie didn't drop a single raindrop on the World (aka) Coca Cola 600 race today. Didn't even get close which is funny because NASCAR races in the East or South are usually rain magnets. Martin Truex lead almost every lap and won the race.
Sometimes when I refresh the page on my Samsung Galaxy Note ® 3, it sends me to ad. Why does it do that.
We are unfortunately going to lose our marine influence and get upper 80's and 90's. How long I don't know...

appears whomever set up this 7-Day was partaking of something. My calendar say Memorial day is Monday not Tuesday, too Funny...
Quoting 223. NCHurricane2009:

Ugh, I can't make an updated post on my blog (for some reason it won't post)....I hate when that happens.

FYI...it seems the model hint at the possibility of some tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea a little over a week from now as a favorable upper ridge builds over the W Carib. Anyone else noticed?


Gargantuan trough (don't say it) over the East = rising heights in the Caribbean. It's not impossible.
Quoting 228. PedleyCA:

We are unfortunately going to lose our marine influence and get upper 80's and 90's. How long I don't know...



If you don't want the ridge, I'll take it. Counting on a Gulf Coast hurricane this year since I actually have money to intercept.

Hint: Your temperatures mean it's going to be cool in the East, so everything's just sorta connected.
Ok, my latest blog update has now been posted (if anyone is still up to read lol). Bonnie still barely has any convection tonight, probably will be downgraded to a remnant low within the next 24 hours.
Link
Hurricane week Day 6
Quoting 221. mitthbevnuruodo:



I read recently Putin will be giving homesteader rights in Siberia; ala mid-west 1800's ;) I'm with you though, I'd love somewhere that was about 60' year round, or 60' average max in summer, but not too sub-zero in winter. After my degree is done, maybe will try Scotland.


Seattle is close. Average of low 40s in the winter, and 75 in the heat of summer. Of course there is the rain... But as I often say, you never have to shovel rain. Having said that, we have broken a series of weather records recently. Including a high of 89F in the middle of April, which is absolutely insanely hot here. Like in AK, there is no AC in most housing here.
Yep. Hot here in Fallon, too.

I didn't think our water table would recover so quickly; on the other hand we have a large irrigation canal right across the street. It's truly blessed our wells along this road.

I got a bunch of vegetables into the garden today; our assorted apple and Empress plum trees are loaded. Busier than a chicken with its legs cut off; unless anything interesting happens it's time to sit back for a few months and read about hurricanes. :)
Quoting 233. Seattleite:



Seattle is close. Average of low 40s in the winter, and 75 in the heat of summer. Of course there is the rain... But as I often say, you never have to shovel rain. Having said that, we have broken a series of weather records recently. Including a high of 89F in the middle of April, which is absolutely insanely hot here. Like in AK, there is no AC in most housing here.


Looking forward to some sunny n warm weather to finish off the weekend, rain tally for May is up to a whopping 1.7".

Big mushroom near lake Whatcom, Wa.
BTW, clouds parted briefly and spotted fresh snow at about 6000' on the Sisters range here in W. Wa.
Quoting 95. 999Ai2016:

What a stormy weekend in Europe... Fortunately I got spared the bad weather, but unfortunately some people & kids weren't spared the lightning strikes, nor the destruction. Much chaos in some places, situation described as "rarely ever seen" by the maire in a small French town hit by flash floods. 130.000 lightnings have been recorded over the country yesterday. Damaging large hail reported in several locations, in France, also in other countries (see map). Good looking supercells forming all over Western Europe due to a "blocking pattern" of thunderstorms, fuelled by the interaction between the last descending cold airmasses from the Arctic region and the tropical airmasses that have started moving in from the south, all wraping around a depression centered on the south of Germany. This pattern will hold on in the next hours, there is currently a huge supercell centered over southeastern Germany that's quite a view

Today a day of so-called 'Ostgewitter' for the Netherlands. I mean, we, the Dutch, call this situation 'Ostgewitter', a German phrase :)
Quoting 223. NCHurricane2009:

Ugh, I can't make an updated post on my blog (for some reason it won't post)....I hate when that happens.

FYI...it seems the model hint at the possibility of some tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea a little over a week from now as a favorable upper ridge builds over the W Carib. Anyone else noticed?
Been talking about it all day ....
Since when did they start naming Tropical Depressions? I thought it needed to reach Tropical Storm levels before receiving a name.
Quoting 240. Braveheart:

Since when did they start naming Tropical Depressions? I thought it needed to reach Tropical Storm levels before receiving a name.


Bonnie was a 45 mph tropical storm on Saturday 11pm EDT!
If the tropical system turns devasting (deserving a retirement) during a TD status does 'Bonnie' get retired?
Quoting 224. pureet1948:




I think it'd be a good idea if everybody in SE TX just started packing their suitcases, get in their cars and leave---forever.
Whatever happened to the so called mega drought, that was happening in Texas a few years ago, was suppose to be another dust bowl, according to some of the local experts. Now you are flooding in parts of Texas, as you return to very wet pattern for your area. It seems like Texas weather can go to extremes in both directions in just a matter of years, must be a very interesting area to live in if you are studying meteorology.
245. MahFL
Quoting 240. Braveheart:

Since when did they start naming Tropical Depressions? I thought it needed to reach Tropical Storm levels before receiving a name.


They do, but if they weaken they still retain the name. It shows it was once a TS and you have to keep an eye on it, sometimes they can restrengthen to TS status again.
246. MahFL
Quoting 244. NativeSun:

Whatever happened to the so called mega drought, that was happening in Texas a few years ago, was suppose to be another dust bowl, according to some of the local experts. Now you are flooding in parts of Texas, as you return to very wet pattern for your area. It seems like Texas weather can go to extremes in both directions in just a matter of years, must be a very interesting area to live in if you are studying meteorology.


You don't have to live in an area to study it's meteorology.
Quoting 194. Dakster:



The world is upside down or something. 2 years ago this weekend it was snowing here.

SoCal is becoming the next desert and Texas is under water. They found turtles in some of the ponds/lakes here that shouldn't be able to survive here. Waiting for snakes to show up next.


Post when you see the first fire ants and alligators and coral snakes
Quoting 200. Dakster:



I did over 40 years in South Florida... Very aware of the heat and storms... Was in South Dade when Andrew roared through in 1992. And of course the very bad years of 2004 and 2005 which damaged our house too.

I have zero intention of ever going to an area where the temp is over 80F, unless I have to - really I don't like it over 70F. I can't wait for winter to come back here. I do the best in the +20F - +40F range. Still properly dressed as I am not super human. But I have been known to walk outside in the snow barefoot with only shorts and a t-shirt on for brief periods of time to cool off.


Did you LIVE in S FL or RESIDE there. A friend forcibly relocated to MSP (florida boy, hates cold) tells me the difference is fundamental. (Whenever I want to irritate him I ask about the ice fishing)
Quoting 244. NativeSun:

Whatever happened to the so called mega drought, that was happening in Texas a few years ago, was suppose to be another dust bowl, according to some of the local experts. Now you are flooding in parts of Texas, as you return to very wet pattern for your area. It seems like Texas weather can go to extremes in both directions in just a matter of years, must be a very interesting area to live in if you are studying meteorology.


Hey look, a straw man!
Well with pretty much all the models agreeing on some sorta tropical development in the W-NW Caribbean-GOM-FL we need to watch the situation second half of this week

Recently agreed model
Awesome rain!!
Quoting 250. wunderkidcayman:

Well with pretty much all the models agreeing on some sorta tropical development in the W-NW Caribbean-GOM-FL we need to watch the situation second half of this week

Recently agreed model

As per the wc this morning a few weeks of it is coming
Quoting 244. NativeSun:

Whatever happened to the so called mega drought, that was happening in Texas a few years ago, was suppose to be another dust bowl, according to some of the local experts. Now you are flooding in parts of Texas, as you return to very wet pattern for your area. It seems like Texas weather can go to extremes in both directions in just a matter of years, must be a very interesting area to live in if you are studying meteorology.
Quoting 251. 19N81W:

Awesome rain!!



Oh that's gonna be a bit more than rain
Not sure what will trigger it as nothing is out there but if it's rain we want it
Quoting 251. 19N81W:

Awesome rain!!

What's the forcast shear
Quoting 253. wunderkidcayman:



Oh that's gonna be a bit more than rain
Had a local rip current fatality..

05/29/2016 0430 PM

Spessard Holland p, Brevard County.

Rip currents, reported by broadcast media.


*** 1 fatal *** possible rip current related drowning.
Male in his early twenties went missing in the rough
surf. Body was recovered from the ocean a few hours
later.
Quoting 227. HurricaneAndre:

Sometimes when I refresh the page on my Samsung Galaxy Note ® 3, it sends me to ad. Why does it do that.


get a iphone and down lode notron ad block wish you can get for ipad and iphone or down lode one of the ad block on the google play store its time too upgrade your phone
Quoting 249. Naga5000:



Hey look, a straw man!

This one is trollsome. A copy paste from a thread here dealing with the most recent Houston deluge. It was replied to there. Consider my reply now banhammerworthy.
The forecast setup, with the MJO contributing to the forecast of a Central America gyre, does not favor a consolidated hurricane. It favors a messy, broad system that delivers torrential rains to a large area. Nicole 2010 comes to mind.
Quoting 255. 19N81W:

What's the forcast shear



Shear forecasted to be low as a decent upper level anticyclone develop over future system

Quoting 254. 19N81W:

Not sure what will trigger it as nothing is out there but if it's rain we want it



Piling Of energy plus 3 tropical waves

Lol ur still being the downcaster
It is interesting how the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is already happening - as we have already observed Hurricane Alex in January, and Tropical Storm Bonnie.. this week!

Although El Nino is diminishing, it is not yet known if the "effects" of El Nino will last well into September, or later in the hurricane season.

Maybe this is why some predictions are calling for up to 10-16 Atlantic basin named storms - a fairly wide margin of possible activity.
New CPC niño update now out
Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 are now in negative values
Quoting 261. Stormwatch247:

It is interesting how the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is already happening - as we have already observed Hurricane Alex in January, and Tropical Storm Bonnie..

Although El Nino is diminishing, it is not yet known if the "effects" of El Nino will last well into September, or longer.

Maybe this is why some predictions are calling for up to 10-16 Atlantic basin named storms - a fairly wide margin of possible activity.


The effects won't last long

The atmospherics and sea surface are even starting become more neutral/la Niña
Well heads up the CSU updated 2016 hurricane season forecast coming out on Wed
too far out in time but,several models pointing to 2nd week of July for something coming close to or going thru Florida to the atlantic..right now just something to wait and see what develops over time.
Quoting 255. 19N81W:

What's the forcast shear

Some models say 10-20, some say 20-30...
A lot has to happen in 7 days for anything to materialize
Quoting 260. wunderkidcayman:



Shear forecasted to be low as a decent upper level anticyclone develop over future system



Piling Of energy plus 3 tropical waves

Lol ur still being the downcaster
Quoting 265. LargoFl:

too far out in time but,several models pointing to 2nd week of July for something coming close to or going thru Florida to the atlantic..right now just something to wait and see what develops over time.


You mean June not July

Quoting 268. Camerooski:

Some models say 10-20, some say 20-30...


More like 0-15
Quoting 265. LargoFl:

too far out in time but,several models pointing to 2nd week of July for something coming close to or going thru Florida to the atlantic..right now just something to wait and see what develops over time.
I wouldn't trust computer models too much yet especially when it is nearly a month and a half out but what I do want to know is what website you are on to be able to get data from those several models that far out... ;^)
Quoting 269. 19N81W:

A lot has to happen in 7 days for anything to materialize



Well not that much to be honest I think conditions could be good in less than 7
273. beell

05/30 06Z GFS 850 mb vort, heights, winds-valid Saturday, June 4th


05/30 06Z GFS 850 mb vort, heights, winds-valid Tuesday, June 7th
ECMWF is similar at this point in time.


05/30 06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid Tuesday, June 7th
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

I wouldn't trust computer models too much yet especially when it is nearly a month and a half out but what I do want to know is what website you are on to be able to get data from those several models... ;^)


I sure he meant June not July
And that time frame of this system is like late weekend into next week so not big of a deal
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

I wouldn't trust computer models too much yet especially when it is nearly a month and a half out but what I do want to know is what website you are on to be able to get data from those several models that far out... ;^)


Yeah, I think he means the second week of June. Most of the models are showing something coming up out of the Caribbean in the next couple weeks. No agreement on exactly when or where but something to watch.
we can't take anymore rain captain....

Quoting 267. Grothar:


Quoting 272. wunderkidcayman:



Well not that much to be honest I think conditions could be good in less than 7


Please post the models showing the good conditions within a week. Thx
Looks like Texas won't have their "drought shield" to protect them this year from a storm.If there was one possible good thing to come from the drought it was to decimate any storm in the gulf that may of had potential to not only affect them,but the northern gulf coast as continental dry air came off of Texas and created a environment with sinking air.Tropical cyclones hate sinking air and high pressure environments.They could form in them but it would take a miracle.
279. beell
Quoting 267. Grothar:




Thanks, Gro.
I have had to upgrade my rain gage,,,



Quoting 276. mcdsara1:

we can't take anymore rain captain....



Why not?
Texas was prepared for this & double this since the early seventies, thanks to the climate change experts of ExxonMobile.
So there should be no problems now.
SST and tropical cyclone heat potential won't be a problem for sure if any storm forms next week.It will all come down to the upper level environment and if shear and moisture will be readily available for our "storm".You also don't want competing dominant LLC's if you are looking for development in the caribbean because the east pacific more than likely will end up with the storm.
I see that the models are showing development in the NW Carib within 7 days. The GOM will also be ripe for developing a system when the MJO visits.
Quoting 271. Tornado6042008X:

I wouldn't trust computer models too much yet especially when it is nearly a month and a half out but what I do want to know is what website you are on to be able to get data from those several models that far out... ;^)


He meant *June*
beell, ya probably oughtta upgrade to one of those five-gallon paint buckets....

and you got wu-mail.
Quoting 277. luvtogolf:



Please post the models showing the good conditions within a week. Thx


please look back in the post has the model you are looking for are all ready there
Quoting 279. beell:



Thanks, Gro.
I have had to upgrade my rain gage,,,






Stay dry, beel.
AL, 02, 2016053012, , BEST, 0, 335N, 797W, 20, 1012, DB
Quoting 276. mcdsara1:

we can't take anymore rain captain....





The pictures are heart-breaking.
Quoting 256. Skyepony:

Had a local rip current fatality..

05/29/2016 0430 PM

Spessard Holland p, Brevard County.

Rip currents, reported by broadcast media.


*** 1 fatal *** possible rip current related drowning.
Male in his early twenties went missing in the rough
surf. Body was recovered from the ocean a few hours
later.
Any word on the guy from Carolina Beach?
From yesterday

(Day7)

A Happy Memorial Day to everyone.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those that made the ultimate sacrifice, and with their friends/family that mourn the loss of their loved ones.

Everyone have a wonderful day, as best you can. Keep your head up - literally "up above the water" in South Carolina and in Texas - and count your blessings.

Cheers.
That would make that Day 6 now
Bonnie is now post-tropical
Hello there. Texas has got some impressive rain totals. The radar was a crazy sight yesterday...
Meanwhile, in Europe :
Germany : 4 Dead After Flooding in Southwest
The Associated Press, BERLIN - May 30, 2016.
Rainstorms in southwestern Germany triggered flooding that left one small town littered with debris and rubble, and led to accidents late Sunday and early Monday in which four people died.
More at my blog about Europe's weather woes. Anyways, have a good day & stay safe from "Earth wet atmo 2.0."
295. beell
Quoting 284. aquak9:

beell, ya probably oughtta upgrade to one of those five-gallon paint buckets....

and you got wu-mail.


Those buckets usually have a slight taper from top-to-bottom. A less than ideal choice if accuracy is important...

Replied!
:)
Bonnie despite the loss of convection looking really good for a dead post tropical system
Way out there, but interesting because it's the Euro
From September 1982 to September 1983 I had the Honor to serve in the USMC at Camp Hansen,9th Engineer's on the island of Okinawa. The same Japanese Island my Father would land April 1,1945 with the 6th Marine Division in the Battle of Okinawa. He and His brother survived to live full rich lives. I often recall those walks I took alone along those beaches, the Hill country inland, and when I walked to the top of Shuri Castle.

The losses incurred on Both sides were terrible and horrendous as it was the last Major Battle in the Pacific. President Roosevelt would die during the Battle. My father was 19 years old then. I found dog tags, spent casings, and other WW 2 relics along those Beaches. As a child I watched Him watch those Victory at Sea Reels on Sundays. I never thought I would walk those beaches myself.
But I am so glad I did
.
Semper Fidelis

The Battle of Okinawa

Poor Bonnie, she put up a good fight, but lost to the elements of wind shear, land, and cooler water temps.
Quoting 294. 999Ai2016:

Hello there. Texas has got some impressive rain totals. The radar was a crazy sight yesterday...

It is even crazier now, maybe.
Perhaps longest line of thunderstorms ('derecho'-like) in European meteorological history. It goes from Holland to Serbia.
Thank you, sir, for your service. And thank you for making this board a more interesting place over the years. Hope you are someplace warm and sunny enjoying this weekend.

Quoting 298. Patrap:

From September 1982 to September 1983 in had the Honor to serve in the USMC at Camp Hansen,9th Engineer's on the island of Okinawa. The same Japanese Island my Father would land April 1,1945 with the 6th Marine Division in the Battle of Okinawa. He and His brother survived to live full rich lives. I often recall those walks I took alone along those beaches, the Hill country inland, and when I walked to the top of Shuri Castle.

The losses incurred on Both sides were terrible and horrendous as it was the last Major Battle in the Pacific. President Roosevelt would die during the Battle. My father was 19 years old then. I found dog tags, spent casings, and other WW 2 relics along those Beaches. As a child I watched Him watch those Victory at Sea Reels on Sundays. I never thought I would walk those beaches myself.
But I am so glad I did
.
Semper Fidelis

The Battle of Okinawa


Quoting 301. JrWeathermanFL:




Where is this disturbance located right now, JrWeathermanFL ?
Quoting 301. JrWeathermanFL:



Will Grothar blob it?
Quoting 300. cRRKampen:

It is even crazier now, maybe.
Perhaps longest line of thunderstorms ('derecho'-like) in European meteorological history. It goes from Holland to Serbia.

Yes, it looks like a valid comparison to me. Euro-echo? Eurecho? It's actually a strange weather pattern I'm seeing now, with colder air from the Atlantic colliding with warmer air from... Eastern E. & Russia. All wraping around a passing east to west continental depression.
Quoting 270. wunderkidcayman:



You mean June not July



More like 0-15
yes June, thanks, my mistake
Looks like Post Tropical Cyclone Bonnie is going to just die over South Carolina. At 2 mph, it's not going anywhere.

11:00 AM EDT Mon May 30
Location: 33.4N 79.8W
Moving: ENE at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1012 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
Quoting 304. Tazmanian:



Caribbean sea and are you JFV?


Some how I got a feeling he is
Quoting 305. HurricaneFan:


Will Grothar blob it?


I'd blob it, if I could see it!!!! If you all remember last week I wrote I had a difficult time blobbing Bonnie, but that "next week" I would have something better in the Caribbean. Well, just wait a couple of days.
If it was any model but the GEM, I'd be worried.
How much rain has South Carolina gotten from this system?I am seeing some pretty bad flooding pics from this area.
Quoting 288. Grothar:




The pictures are heart-breaking.


people have been posting drone footage of the floods. i have never seen anything like it, i'm 38, so youngish...but we have had some bad floods back to back. i fear this is the new normal. btw kingwood, tomball, the flooded areas are 60 miles from the coast. so flooding is not just a coastal issue anymore.
Quoting 314. mcdsara1:



people have been posting drone footage of the floods. i have never seen anything like it, i'm 38, so youngish...but we have had some bad floods back to back. i fear this is the new normal. btw kingwood, tomball, the flooded areas are 60 miles from the coast. so flooding is not just a coastal issue anymore.


When has flooding just been a coastal issue with a tropical system? The worst floods have been well inland from the coast due to stalled tropical systems.
30-50% chance of development.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 313. birdsrock2016:
How much rain has South Carolina gotten from this system?I am seeing some pretty bad flooding pics from this area.

This is not JFV because JFV would never ask or care about any other location other than his own.
Quoting 316. tiggerhurricanes2001:

30-50% chance of development.



That could be scary . The waters in the GOM are very warm and that could lead to rapid intensification.
320. vis0

Quoting 311. Grothar:



I'd blob it, if I could see it!!!! If you all remember last week I wrote I had a difficult time blobbing Bonnie, but that "next week" I would have something better in the Caribbean. Well, just wait a couple of days.
New Blob category? ...Banshee blob (ethereal like)?
If shear drops we could get a hurricane in the Caribbean or GOM. Remember these waters are extremely warm. We have had early season Gulf hurricanes before, like Alex 2010 and Dolly 2008.
Quoting 311. Grothar:



I'd blob it, if I could see it!!!! If you all remember last week I wrote I had a difficult time blobbing Bonnie, but that "next week" I would have something better in the Caribbean. Well, just wait a couple of days.
... wait a couple of days???