WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression 3 forms near South Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 AM GMT on July 19, 2008

Tropical Depression Three has formed off the Southeast U.S. coast. Charleston, SC long range radar shows the slow development of a solid spiral band of thunderstorms to the southeast of the center, away from land. The storm is over waters of marginal warmth, about 27°C, a degree above the threshold of 26°C needed to sustain a tropical storm. The warm waters are very shallow, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is near zero, meaning we're unlikely to see rapid intensification of TD 3. Wind shear is about 15 knots over the storm, and is forecast to remain 10-15 knots over the next two days. There is some dry air over the Southeast U.S. that may get entrained into TD 3's circulation. TD 3 could intensify into a weak tropical storm, if the center manages to remain over water. None of the models forecast that TD 3 will intensify beyond a 50 mph tropical storm, and this is a reasonable forecast, due to the relatively cool water temperatures, moderate wind shear, and the presence of dry air nearby. Coastal areas of North Carolina are likely to get heavy rains from TD 3, but it remains to be seen if these rains will penetrate far enough inland to significantly alleviate drought conditions over the state. Heavy rains may also develop over South Carolina, but the main rain will probably remain offshore as the storm passes that state. TD 3 is unlikely to bring heavy rain to any other states, with the possible exception of Cape Cod and Nantucket, Massachusetts Monday/Tuesday.

Links to follow:
Charleston, SC long range radar
Southeast U.S. Marine observations and forecasts


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 3.

Caribbean disturbance 94L
A well-organized disturbance in the Central Caribbean (94L) is bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to Haiti and Jamaica tonight. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight was unable to find a closed surface circulation, and this evening's 6:51 pm EDT QuikSCAT pass also shows no surface circulation. An upper-level cold low centered over Cuba is bringing about 20 knots of wind shear to the northern portion of 94L, but the southern portion of the disturbance is under only about 10 knots of wind shear.

The upper-level low is forecast to slide westward and weaken over the next two days, bringing low wind shear of 5-10 knots over the disturbance Saturday and Sunday. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression as early as Saturday afternoon. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to fly into 94L at 2 pm EDT Saturday. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development.

Bertha
Hurricane Bertha is still out there. I find it amazing we've had a July storm that has lasted 17 days and counting! Bertha's days are numbered, though. Bertha will reach cold water less than 70°F by Sunday, which should finally kill it.

I'll have a full update on the tropics Saturday morning. Boy, it sure looks like more like September than July in the tropics!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingaway:
The NHC says 94L is in favorable conditions, how that be? It's running right into that ULL.


Wind shear is decreasing right over the center of the storm. The ULL is supposed to weaken and move away. SSTs are very favorable for development.
502. IKE
Quoting washingaway:
The NHC says 94L is in favorable conditions, how that be? It's running right into that ULL.


The ULL is weakening and moving west. Look at a WV loop on the Atlantic...zoom in on the ULL...you can see it moving west and it's weaker then yesterday.
499. extreme236 1:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

Yes, sorry. I replied before you had a chance to edit. I still maintain it will be a TD, could very well be today. The situation evolving with the ULL is very interesting
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields FSU Link

This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
19/1145 UTC 14.3N 76.1W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
Quoting kmanislander:
499. extreme236 1:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

Yes, sorry. I replied before you had a chance to edit. I still maintain it will be a TD, could very well be today. The situation evolving with the ULL is very interesting


Thats okay...I've done the same thing before lol....but yes with the ULL weakening and moving away recon could end up finding a closed circulation.
Does anyone know if the latest GFS model run developes 94L?
WV GOES-12 Loop of the Tropical Basin,largLinke
511. IKE
I'll be back in a little bit...gonna go wash my car...curious to see what 94l looks like when I get back.
One can find the models for each invest,on the "Tropical/Hurricane" page on the top of this page in the Task Bar.Link
What's interesting is yesterday the GFDL/HWRF didn't seem to really develop 94L and now this morning they make it a major hurricane.
"T" numbers up for 94L from 1 yesterday to 1.5
Quoting Hamhog:
Does anyone know if the latest GFS model run developes 94L?


Yes it does not but it appears not as strong as the GFDL(current takes it to the upper texas coast) & HWRD models(takes it to southern texas coat)
513. extreme236 1:13 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

I think that what's happening with the ULL may be the big variable. The shear is no longer coming out of the SW and this is allowing the center to "hold on " to the convection it is building. Also, the digging of the ULL as it pulls away is opening up an outflow channel which is allowing 94L to vent better. Take a look at the low level convergence. It is the best it has ever been.


Fascinating to watch the interplay between the two

Link
Mornin fellow NC and SC bloggers
blowing and deluging atm in wilmington NC
if it doesnt do anything else today it has satisfied my tropical craving
Does anybody know how much TD3 will affect VA? I'm in Richmond and I'm just wondering. Thanks!
has anyone else noticed the increasing Juderson concentration on this blog? LOL...first there was plain Juderson, then ForecasterJuderson, and THEN StudJuderson! LOL
Quoting Patrap:
One can find the models for each invest,on the "Tropical/Hurricane" page on the top of this page in the Task Bar.Link


Yes but is from hours ago and seems way further south than I am seeing on satellite images and feeling here???
Starting to get better organized.

Whats been interesting is that the GFDL model over the past two days has been either having 94L go farther east to N.O. or to stay WNW to Galveston, or between those two points.

Also whats been happening the other models have been shifting a more WNW from the southern coast of Texas to the upper north Texas Coast.
Back in a while
good AM 236 and kmanislander
GFDL three03l 2008071906 Forecast slp Java Animation FSU Link
527. bwi
Wind reports from the buoy at 15.1 75.1 have shown a slight shift from ENE to ESE over the last 8 hours or so as the "center" of 94l passed to the south. Velocities have been stead in the upper 20 knot range in the last hour:
GMT
1250 ESE ( 116 deg ) 28.6 kts
1240 ESE ( 114 deg ) 27.2 kts
1230 ESE ( 113 deg ) 27.0 kts
1220 ESE ( 115 deg ) 29.1 kts
1210 ESE ( 114 deg ) 26.4 kts
1200 ESE ( 113 deg ) 26.2 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Quoting kmanislander:
513. extreme236 1:13 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

I think that what's happening with the ULL may be the big variable. The shear is no longer coming out of the SW and this is allowing the center to "hold on " to the convection it is building. Also, the digging of the ULL as it pulls away is opening up an outflow channel which is allowing 94L to vent better. Take a look at the low level convergence. It is the best it has ever been.


Fascinating to watch the interplay between the two

Link


I agree I was watching this last night, how this ULL was dominating now its letting the baby make its path. Mother Nature at its finest! What a planet we live on!
Is the forward speed going to increase with our T.D?
236 and kmanislander

i was this looking at this loop and all most looks like 94L got his spin back to it if it dos have a spin to it now its COC is right under the most deeper t-storms this AM do you see what i am seeing this AM???

Link
am not tryin to make a believer out of anyone but myself, but that animation of the GFDL that pat just posted is freakin me out
2 months ago i posted that i had a bad feeling for the texas / la border this year and now look at that GFDL
530.

I'm having trouble giving you a definite answer. QS shows no closed circulation and satellite images really doesn't show much either unless something ill-defined is there. We will have to watch over the next few hours to determine what happens.
Thanks for the reply Kman & Extreme
ok 236
look at the EPOC where 95l is crossing over. Convection Looks impressive.
Thank you for the update, Dr. Masters. Welcome Back!
that was Epac
I am useless at interpreting these charts so can someone please tell me how much of this blob will most likely impact Jamaica today???
It is raining really hard again in Kingston now and I need to decide whether to put up the plastic tarps over the window slats etc
Thanks!!!
Fausto strengthening

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 109.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 107.1W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM
95L didn't develop here and decides it wants to in the EPAC

Quoting negriltracy:
I am useless at interpreting these charts so can someone please tell me how much of this blob will most likely impact Jamaica today???
It is raining really hard again in Kingston now and I need to decide whether to put up the plastic tarps over the window slats etc
Thanks!!!


Lots of rain I can tell you that. Hard to say the exact impact as it matters how quickly 94L develops.
The GDFL has been taking the system further West(From Houston to New Orleans area). If the system intensifies rapidly wouldn't it tend to move more northerly?
Looks like RECON getting ready to go, but where? 03L or 94L

Edit: I see now, scheduled takeoff 1345 (9:45 AM) for 94L
HH POD

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181555
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1155 AM EDT FRI 18 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-048

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBB CYCLONE
C. 20/0245Z
D. 33.7N 77.3W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK...CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

3. SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/1345Z
D. 16.1N 78.9W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 06AAA CYCLONE
C. 20/0115Z
D. 17.2N 81.6W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV MISSION FOR 21/0000Z.
5. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 18/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 17/2230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like RECON getting ready to go, but where? 03L or 94L


Good question. But there supposed to go to both today anyway.
539. extreme236 6:31 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
Fausto strengthening

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 109.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 108.6W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 107.1W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 977MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM


can i have a link to that Please 236
Here you go Taz:

Link
ummm I hope this hasn't been posted already but where is the COC on 94L?
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

tasked for TD-3





FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 06AAA CYCLONE
C. 20/0115Z
D. 17.2N 81.6W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Tasked for 94L


thanks
how can you have both HH fly at the same time???
Just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review......
TampaSpin's Blog
Taz,,they have Numerous Planes,..Like 4 or More
enjoyed the blog Tampa..thank you
Make that 10 Aircraft Tazaroo,..


The Hurricane Hunters

53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
403rd Wing, Air Force Reserve Command
Keesler Air Force Base, Biloxi, Mississippi

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, known as the Hurricane Hunters of the Air Force Reserve, is the only Department of Defense organization still flying into tropical storms and hurricanes – since 1944. The ten Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft and crews are part of the 403rd Wing, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Our ten Lockheed-Martin WC-130J aircraft and crews are part of the 403rd Wing, based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.

Link
554. aubiesgirl 9:43 AM EDT on July 19, 2008

Your welcome.
Morning --- See the GFDL has moved closer to where it was thursday night...

Can any body explain what changes the computers are seeing... and when do you think this might become a tropical storm?
94L IR Loop Link

94L WV Loop Link
Did anyone else see the little dashes on TWC's tropical update showing the path that 94L has taken over the last couple of days? It basically showed that the storm has moved NW since getting away from the coast of SA.
evertone still sleeping or what?
thanks pat
good info on the blog TS you think this weekend 94 comes together and stays together?
HEY GUYS DR LYONS JUST GAVE UPDATE. EXPECT 94L TO PASS JAMIACA TODAY AND HEAD TO YUCATAN CHANNEL LA/TX/MEX SHOULD WATCH CLOSS. THET DO EXPECT IT TO BE TD SOON
Low level convergence continues to improve with 94L. It now covers the entire system

Link
I think if 94L gains strength quickly then it will be more likely to turn more towards the north and the GDFL rapidly intensifies it, hence its more to the right of the rest of the models.
So will there be any impacts from TD3 here on Cape Cod, MA? And what whould they be like?
559. cheeweez 9:52 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Tampa...........really nice blog. I live in New orleans, 94 is looking really bad this morning, should we be worrying about this one??


Is 94L heading toward the GOM, yes. Storms don't make it out without hitting landmass somewhere.....don't worry just stay alert of changing conditions.
Living Uptown offa Magazine..I can assure you there is NO danger from any Tropical Entity at this time.94L is Below Jamaica and wont make the GOM/Yuc till Late Sun and Mon.
By that time the track and strength Downstream will be better known
Use the archive on the Tropical /Hurricane Page for past storms..Link
Quoting tea3781:
I think if 94L gains strength quickly then it will be more likely to turn more towards the north and the GDFL rapidly intensifies it, hence its more to the right of the rest of the models.


HWRF takes 94L into Southern Texas even stronger than what the GFDL shows (HWRF makes it a Cat 4)
How long do you think until it becomes a tropical storm???
I still see that 94L is still disorganized while TD 3 is on it's way to becoming Cristobal.
Kman you got rough weather heading at ya.
577. MrSea
I predict that this African wave will hit the US East Coast as a strong hurricane in 11-16 days.
573. extreme236

06Z HWRF has 49 knots at the end.
The reason the GFDL/HWRF make 94L so strong is because they don't take it over land (The HWRF does for a very brief time frame though)
That wave over Africa has a better circulation than 94L.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
573. extreme236

06Z HWRF has 49 knots at the end.


Thats weird...this shows much higher than 49 knots

Sea, if it makes it to open water. lol
Good morning Drak

Yes, 94L not yet a TD but improving. The shortwave loop shows what appears to be a center near 16.2N 77 West on a heading of WNW ( about 285 or 290 ). If that is correct it is pulling further N than projected.

Link
579. jphurricane2006 10:01 AM EDT on July 19, 2008

JP i agree with that.....its coming today.
Quoting jphurricane2006:
disorganized?

ummmm I dont think so, looks better today than it has in a while, that convection could allow for a surface circulation to form very quickly


Where have I heard that before.
582. extreme236

HWFI, extrapolated 00Z HWRF
Hi Tampa. Yes, lots of rain on the way for the weekend. Guess I will be watching the Open tournament rather than playing tomorrow !
Drak Jp is right that a sfc circulation could form at any time. Wind shear is decreasing as the ULL pulls away and weakens and SSTs are quite high.
mornin all.....

couldn't believe my eyes on the last 94L GFDL run!

Quoting cheeweez:
Tampa...........really nice blog. I live in New orleans, 94 is looking really bad this morning, should we be worrying about this one??


Nope..no worries..enjoy the weekend
Quoting MrSea:
I predict that this African wave will hit the US East Coast as a strong hurricane in 11-16 days.


And I predict I win the powerball this weekend
The ULL moving away from 94L has given her some room to get breathing again ,and maybe get the COC established later today.
are there any weather patterns that could trend the models back to the Northern GOM?..I know I know everyone get out your magic 8balls for this one..lol
QUESTION : It seems the gfdl is taking to N Tx again. is the a good model?
the HH are up and i this downlode Google Earth and it looks like there going right for 94L
Quoting extreme236:
Drak Jp is right that a sfc circulation could form at any time. Wind shear is decreasing as the ULL pulls away and weakens and SSTs are quite high.


They have been saying the same thing for 4-5 days now. Disregard what I say even though for the most part I have nailed the system so far.
578. nrtiwlnvragn 2:01 PM GMT on July 19, 2008 Hide this comment.
573. extreme236

06Z HWRF has 49 knots at the end


Thats what I thought...I never saw anything about a category 4 hurricane.
looks to me on the visible loop TD3 center trying to relocate ESE
Quoting fldude99:
Quoting MrSea:
I predict that this African wave will hit the US East Coast as a strong hurricane in 11-16 days.


And I predict I win the powerball this weekend


ROFLAMO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!hahahha
601. MrSea
Quoting fldude99:
Quoting MrSea:
I predict that this African wave will hit the US East Coast as a strong hurricane in 11-16 days.


And I predict I win the powerball this weekend


lol that's different
Quoting Patrap:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(OFF S.E. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 01BBB INVEST
C. 19/1445Z
D. 32.6N 78.8W
E. 19/1630Z TO 19/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

tasked for TD-3





FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 06AAA CYCLONE
C. 20/0115Z
D. 17.2N 81.6W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Tasked for 94L




Patrap:

Can you tell me what the times for A,C and E denote?

I have a pretty good hunch, but couldn't verify it on the HH website.
My take in my blog i noted if 94L gets stronger it heads North.
577: Can you tell us what town and what time/day?
Myrtlespin.... That is N Tx right ?
598. tea3781

00Z HWRF had the strong storm.
Quoting tea3781:
578. nrtiwlnvragn 2:01 PM GMT on July 19, 2008 Hide this comment.
573. extreme236

06Z HWRF has 49 knots at the end


Thats what I thought...I never saw anything about a category 4 hurricane.


Sorry about the confusion. I was just going by what the chart said.
603.yea I read that
A. is flight times

B,is storm I.D.

C. is Time of the day it was issued.

I believe.

I was in the USMC Air Wing..not the Air Force./em>
Hurricane Charlie track looked similar to where 94L is now!
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting extreme236:
Drak Jp is right that a sfc circulation could form at any time. Wind shear is decreasing as the ULL pulls away and weakens and SSTs are quite high.


They have been saying the same thing for 4-5 days now. Disregard what I say even though for the most part I have nailed the system so far.


But the thing is conditions haven't been as favorable as there going to be for the next 48 hours. These conditions should allow for a depression to form.
603. TampaSpin 2:09 PM GMT on July 19, 2008 Hide this comment.
My take in my blog i noted if 94L gets stronger it heads North.


I agree!
Morning all! Here is the answer to that question regarding reading the Recon Flight Schedule.

Guide to Decoding Reconnaisance Schedules
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
A = Requested on-station time for each complete pattern.

B = Mission identifier. Part of the aircraft's tail number is in that.

C = Estimated time of departure from originating station.

D = Departure Station (KHST is Homestead, Florida. I think that you and
the weather community has these.)

E = Forecast position of storm / hurricane.

F = Destination station (where aircraft is scheduled to return).

G = Pattern to fly. The only one he had time to tell me is that ALPHA
is an X pattern with 105 mile legs. They go in, fly about 105 miles,
exit, go counter-clockwise and then fly the other 105 mile leg.

H = The forecast movement to be used calculating each pattern location.

I = Comments.


Interesting notefor me and everyone else: Newest models for 94L keeps shifting more towards CONUS and puts it in GOM. Hmmmm. Makes me wonder where it's headed and what it will do.
602. 4rtMyersGuy

A is center fix date/time
C is takeoff date/time
E is time on station date/time
Quoting MrSea:
Quoting fldude99:
Quoting MrSea:
I predict that this African wave will hit the US East Coast as a strong hurricane in 11-16 days.


And I predict I win the powerball this weekend


lol that's different


Just trying to point out how ridiculous it is to make a prediction of a blob blowing off the african coast
Would someone please post the link for the HH real time obs. I do not have it on my home computer. TIA
My wife took the kids down to myrtle beach. she has no clue about the TD, i forgot to tell her. She just called and asked me was it supposed to rain.
619. MrSea
I see no reason for 94L not to develop.. however I will not make any predictions on it until it has a circulation.

Our TD seems to be taking on more of a comma shape, with more banding features to the NE and SW. I think it should be a TS next advisory, but I doubt NHS will upgrade it until late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Who stretched the blog ?
I still say that this will turn out to be a TX/LA/MS storm.
Quoting caneman911:
My wife took the kids down to myrtle beach. she has no clue about the TD, i forgot to tell her. She just called and asked me was it supposed to rain.
LOL
I really dont think this thing is going towards Texas.. It will have to make an extremely sharp North turn to get their.. and at its current speed of about 20 mph.. it will keep tracking West with slight north component and will hit well south of Texas... It shouldnt be anymore then a strong tropical storm at the most.
617. kmanislander

Link
616. fldude99 2:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

I believe this post is stretching the blog due to several quotes with an image in it. Please edit. Thanks
i hope your right
624

Many thanks
I wish they would get rid of that dam qoute button......wow
629. MrSea
616. fldude99 2:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

well, I think it's a reasonable prediction. I see no reasons for it not to develop, most models develop it, the A/B high is building,so I dont think it'll recurve until very close to the US, and I think it's a question of will it turn north and hit the US east coast, or will it turn before that and go out to sea. Maybe a bold prediction, but I make bold predictions lol.
Morning all. Hope all is well with our "crowd" in here.
Kman im looking at the Satellite loop of 94L its really taking shape.
good morning.... man tropics have really lit up over the past week....
What's wrong with the qoute button
Quoting MrSea:
616. fldude99 2:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

well, I think it's a reasonable prediction. I see no reasons for it not to develop, most models develop it, the A/B high is building,so I dont think it'll recurve until very close to the US, and I think it's a question of will it turn north and hit the US east coast, or will it turn before that and go out to sea. Maybe a bold prediction, but I make bold predictions lol.


How about possible wind shear? We have no idea what wind shear will be like and right now it's not too favorable off the coast and near the CV islands right now.
If Jamaicans get lucky 94L will steer more west, but I'd be preparing my home to keep water from coming in. Link
If using dial up, this still water vapor image is easier to load. Link
632 yes they have. seen the new gfdl model
629. MrSea 2:18 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

Now if you could only tell us what day and what town we could start on the coastal evacuations!
did any one no that the HH are now up in 94L???
Chicklit, where are you?
614, Hi Fire,.watching 94L as well, like we need that here lol....but maybe that's what the Gaming Commission wants lol
637.

LOL!!!

I wouldn't doubt it a bit!!
Answer to POD format:

TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY FORMAT
ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEANS
NOUS42 KNHC _________ (DATE/UTC TIME)
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL
_____ (LOCAL TIME) ___ (TIME ZONE) ___ (DAY) ___ (MONTH/DATE), ____ (YEAR)
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID ______Z (MONTH) TO ______Z (MONTH) (YEAR)
TCPOD NUMBER.........(YR)- __________
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. (STORM NAME, DEPRESSION, SUSPECT AREA) or (NEGATIVE RECON REQUIREMENTS)
FLIGHT ONE (NHC PRIORITY, if applicable)
TEAL or NOAA _____ (number)
A. __________________________Z FIX/INVEST TIME
B. __________________________ MISSION IDENTIFIER
C. __________________________Z DEPARTURE TIME
D. __________________________ FORECAST POSITION
E. __________________________Z TIME ON STATION
F. __________________________ ALTITUDE(S) ON STATION
G. __________________________ REMARKS (if needed)
FLIGHT TWO (if applicable, same as FLIGHT ONE)
2. (SECOND SYSTEM, if applicable, same as in 1. above)
3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY (NHC PRIORITY, if applicable)
A. POSSIBLE (Unit) ON STATION REQUIREMENT NEAR (Location)
AT (Time) Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS (Same as in ATLANTIC)

Figure 5-7 of the National Hurricane Operations Plan
Quoting jphurricane2006:
I find it funny how people get too impatient and frustrated with systems. Here is a newsflash, not all systems will form quickly and if you are expecting that, then you dont have the patience to do this kind of tracking


you know im patient im waiting because i know something is starting to cook with 94l.
646. MrSea
Quoting extreme236:
Quoting MrSea:
616. fldude99 2:12 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

well, I think it's a reasonable prediction. I see no reasons for it not to develop, most models develop it, the A/B high is building,so I dont think it'll recurve until very close to the US, and I think it's a question of will it turn north and hit the US east coast, or will it turn before that and go out to sea. Maybe a bold prediction, but I make bold predictions lol.


How about possible wind shear? We have no idea what wind shear will be like and right now it's not too favorable off the coast and near the CV islands right now.


GFS shows weakening shear.. and looking at water vapor imagery, African dust doesnt look like itll be a problem neither
HH are heading to 94L now so it seems.
Quoting Tazmanian:
did any one no that the HH are now up in 94L???

No, but I would think they sincerely would like to classify this as a TD so they can 'up' the info level on it.
94L is finally firing off decent storms near the center in the last hour. Now that the ULL to its west is weakening, it has one more battle to overcome in the dry air that the ULL dumped in front of it. We shall see.
Quoting jphurricane2006:
I find it funny how people get too impatient and frustrated with systems. Here is a newsflash, not all systems will form quickly and if you are expecting that, then you dont have the patience to do this kind of tracking


Hopefully that statement isn't directed to me. 94L has done nothing to be impressive and continues to struggle.
We are of course focused on TD3 and 94L, but has anyone else noticed the very small, but interesting feature south of Bermuda? A circulation has developed along the tail left behind by Bertha. Some nice convection has been firing this morning and concentrating just ne of the low center. Upper level winds are decent in that area.
Quoting Tazmanian:
did any one no that the HH are now up in 94L???


Yes they are investigating right now.
646.

The thing is...we have seen several waves that look interesting over Africa but when they emerge off the coast even with low wind shear they don't amount to anything. Its worth watching though.
i been tracking them on Google Earth
I'm in east Central Florida near Ponce Inlet.
HH now at 67 W at cruise altitude
Quoting Drakoen:
That wave over Africa has a better circulation than 94L.


Drak, that poking and prodding the hornet's nest may get you stung! LOL
thats the last thing fl needs is another crazy season,


Looking better organized 94L is.
This GFS run actually shows a storm making it all the way across...

Link
661. MrSea
Ok, but it's reallllly an ominous wave, with a huge coma shape to it, I think a week from now this blog will be crazy about this storm, as well as the one in the carribean/gulf (94L)
Quoting myrtlespin:
Quoting Drakoen:
That wave over Africa has a better circulation than 94L.


Drak, that poking and prodding the hornet's nest may get you stung! LOL


lol yea.
Kman i think 94L is about to close off again. It sure looks like in Close up.....
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting jphurricane2006:
I find it funny how people get too impatient and frustrated with systems. Here is a newsflash, not all systems will form quickly and if you are expecting that, then you dont have the patience to do this kind of tracking


Hopefully that statement isn't directed to me. 94L has done nothing to be impressive and continues to struggle.


I disagree, i think that sience the ULL is weakening 94l now has the opprotunity to become better orgainized.And i think it is starting to do so notice how convection is now more confiened to one area.If 94l can develop another llc i see no reason why it cant become a powerful hurricane.
Recon will be in 94L in a couple hours...why don't we just wait to see what they find before we say it does or doesn't have a closed circulation lol
663. TampaSpin 2:31 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

The plane will tell us soon enough what's out there. Very windy here now

Back in a bit
94L has done nothing to be impressive and continues to struggle. -- Drak
I think the people of Jamaica would disagree.
654. Tazmanian 9:27 AM CDT on July 19, 2008
i been tracking them on Google Earth


Taz, I have Google Earth but don't know what to look for to find the HH's. Can you assist?
nrtiw:

Good info.

Thx
Quoting InTheCone:
This GFS run actually shows a storm making it all the way across...

Link


Until you turn the kaleidescope...12 Z run coming up soon.
Good morning everyone!

I look at satellite imagery and 94L doesn't look all that impressive. The 8am update at NHC says that it has not become any more organized this morning. Yet, Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC and some of you on here say a closed circulation is very close to forming and is on its way to becoming a TD. I am really confused and this storm has really been giving me fits!!
670.

Yeah, I know, I just posted it to stir the pot!

lol..
Quoting Chicklit:
94L has done nothing to be impressive and continues to struggle.
Drak, are you sure your real name isn't "Darth?"

I don't really care for getting the popularity vote in this blog.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Good morning everyone!

I look at satellite imagery and 94L doesn't look all that impressive. The 8am update at NHC says that it has not become any more organized this morning. Yet, Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC and some of you on here say a closed circulation is very close to forming and is on its way to becoming a TD. I am really confused and this storm has really been giving me fits!!


Its giving everyone fits. One of the big reasons why we want to see what recon finds.
We very well could have 3 named storms at the same time in 24hrs.
Good Morning Everybody,
Just checking in on what is going on in the tropics.... UGH(rolls eyes) Jeff you are right the tropics are in september mod.... I was kidding about having possible 3 to 4 storms for the month of July.... It sure looks like it could happen.... anyway has StormW or JP been on here today?
Just wondering....

Taco :0)
Quoting TampaSpin:
We very well could have 3 named storms at the same time in 24hrs.


3??? Where is this third one coming from? lol
668. SamTeam 7:34 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
654. Tazmanian 9:27 AM CDT on July 19, 2008
i been tracking them on Google Earth

Taz, I have Google Earth but don't know what to look for to find the HH's. Can you assist?


go here and hit Live Recon Data in Google Earth then a little thing will come up hit open and it sould pop right up in your Google Earth

Link
this season is so exciting so far..
679.
Bertha, td3, 94L
We are being deluged by heavy rain in Kingston and I fear there will be massive flooding, storm surge and mudslides with alot of damage by the time 94L has passed Jamaica!!!
Any opinions on time frame for this to end here???
Quoting extreme236:
Quoting TampaSpin:
We very well could have 3 named storms at the same time in 24hrs.


3??? Where is this third one coming from? lol


dont forget old bertha chugging away up there lol
Anybody have the link for the hurricane hunters info decoder?


Wow that GFDL model is being very bold in its predictions. Category 4 Hurricane 0000 UTC July 24th? Geez!
679. extreme236 2:38 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

3??? Where is this third one coming from? lol


That would be the guaranteed strong hurricane coming from the wave still on Africa. ;-) Within 24 hours? No. Ever? Maybe not...actually odds are against it.
94L now dumping tons of water on us here in Kingston Jamaica. Here where I am in Barbican we are not getting any wind and I am happy about that. We have to watcth for the flash flooding.
Oops I forgot about Bertha lol...but she could be gone by tonight if she becomes extratropical. She is about to be hit by a huge area of wind shear.
Good morning everyone! I see 94L is still being fickle. Needs to make up its mind.
Link

Well you can see a good shot of the ULL in the loop the core @ 20'N-80'W moving due West.
687
UKMET...how do they do this early????
687. according to the map the GFDL is already off by a lot, but the BAMM and GFS seem accurate so watch out SO east texas, but i personally think this is still an open wave and will get to the yucatan before it can develop. its gonna be there in 2 days so it better hurry lol
Drak, a more sinister you.... you have gone to the dark side!

I like it!

It's like a StormTop, but with some actual intelligence! LOL
696. MrSea
Quoting atmoaggie:
679. extreme236 2:38 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

3??? Where is this third one coming from? lol


That would be the guaranteed strong hurricane coming from the wave still on Africa. ;-) Within 24 hours? No. Ever? Maybe not...actually odds are against it.


1. TD3
2. 94L
3. Bertha

our African storm wont be named in 24 hours that would be rediculous lol
Quoting Chicklit:
If Jamaicans get lucky 94L will steer more west, but I'd be preparing my home to keep water from coming in. Link
If using dial up, this still water vapor image is easier to load. Link

Reposting for our Jamaican friends.
680 Thanks Taz
698. SamTeam 7:44 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
680 Thanks Taz


any time
Wow! just got windy - I do not like the gusts.
Quoting thelmores:
Drak, a more sinister you.... you have gone to the dark side!

I like it!

It's like a StormTop, but with some actual intelligence! LOL


Please don't compare me to StormTop. I don't mind disagreeing that the system is presently disorganized.
wow if you speed the satellite loop up fast its not hard to find the LLC its closed in my opinion.
I dont know, the GFDL is pretty reliable. Most of the other models are moving more north as well.
can someone link the wilmington long range radar with more than 6 frames? it would be greatly apprciated :)
good morning stormw.


Im beginning to also notice some low level inflow to the south, feeding into the deepest convection, around 15N. This will be a very slow process.

StormW - Great update. Lots to watch this weekend,
682. JFV
Og my God, the latest GFS run has our current African low moving across the entire basin and towards the end of it's run it has it making landfall in South Florida before it enters the GOF!


Is GOF the Gulf of Fearcasting?
Morning StormW.....pull your pants up high and get ready......
Quoting StormW:
WILMINGTON LONG RANGE DOPPLER LOOP


thanks as always storm!!
Quoting Drakoen:
Quoting thelmores:
Drak, a more sinister you.... you have gone to the dark side!

I like it!

It's like a StormTop, but with some actual intelligence! LOL


Please don't compare me to StormTop. I don't mind disagreeing that the system is presently disorganized.


my apologies friend, you are right, I could have done a much better job of my analogy.....

Remember everyone. I said this last night. No point in getting too excited over a wave over Africa right now. We are gonna see many more like the one we are looking at now and most will not develop.

718. ackee
what latest on 94l is it a TD as yet ?
the HH are this now come in to 94L
...Depression nearing tropical storm strength...

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the tropical storm watch from north of
Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River has been
discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 32.6 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 90
miles...140 km...east of Charleston South Carolina and about 250
miles...400 km...southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On this track...the center of the depression is expected to move
along the coasts of south and North Carolina today and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm later
today...with continued strengthening possible on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected along the coasts of
North Carolina and northern South Carolina...with isolated heavier
amounts over northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North
Carolina.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...32.6 N...78.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Knabb

I just heard Dr. Steve said that 94l is a bigger threat to the CONUS than TD3.
722. MrSea
wow TD3 is forecast to be 45 knots by the NHC by tomorrow night! thats an improvement
Quoting Chicklit:
If Jamaicans get lucky 94L will steer more west, but I'd be preparing my home to keep water from coming in. Link
If using dial up, this still water vapor image is easier to load. Link


Yes - it seems as if this will be an interesting day...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 191447
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND
WILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO
DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
This systems formation (94L) is really going to depend on that ULL.

The upper level low is still in a bad position, Northwest of the wave, moving in tandem, causing shear. If you look at the vapor loop, it is way obvious.

Had the ULL been about 150 miles further West, it would be causing a more favorable venting pattern... but it is definitely being sheared at this moment.

The low is forecast by the GFS to weaken and slide West out of the way by 36 hours:


Until this happens, no formation.

That said, I would also say that the relative position of the ULL has caused the system to be nudged further north. If it develops tomorrow, i could see this clipping the Yucatan or even passing through the channel.
wow 236 look how march better 94L is geting and this has the HH is geting in there too
Question:
What is steering TD3? The gulf stream? Just wondering if there's any chance at all it could take a left turn and bring central NC some of that sweet, sweet rain.
HH at 70W. Still at cruise altitude
Wind at 42058 buoy near 30 knots
Morning Folks!

TD3 looks awsome on sat/radar appearance but iam afraid i cant say the same thing for our poorly defind system i.e.; open wave down in the caribbean i doupt recon will find anything along the lines of a surface circulation this morning.As bryan points out some development is still possible but iam not impressed but iam seeing this morning. Adrian
2 more hours to wait before we see if we have our next cristobal... question why doesnt the HH fly into the immediate threat first?
731. MrSea
NHC shifts their track more to the W for the new england area, as I thought they would.
Storm W nice update.
fellow NC bloggersa
I'm finding i'm gettin MUCH better and more realistic info on my LOCAL blogs
thelmores...out of jail so quickly?? congratulations! LOL
what time is 1700 utc
Here in Grand Cayman....beatiful day! The sky is bright blue and the sun is out. Yesterday was dead calm....especially last night...but woke up this morning and it is now pretty windy
The GFDL develops 94L instantly and takes it more northwestward, and that's probably an error, its being rather strong in its predictions.

A weaker system would track into the northern Yucatan as the GFS is forecasting and I'd go with that. Wind shear looks a bit strong as it moves into the Gulf on Monday morning, but the GFS forecast is for decreasing shear Monday afternoon.

I think that's when there will be a good chance of strengthening/development. Model guidance is concentrated on northern MX to TX. Looks reasonable, though I'd go with the lower TX coast to northern MX for landfall on Wednesday.

As for intensity, most likely a TS but I wouldn't rule out hurricane strength by any means. The difference between a TS and a hurricane is only maybe 3-6 hours of reduced shear.
Quoting vabeachurricanes222:
2 more hours to wait before we see if we have our next cristobal... question why doesnt the HH fly into the immediate threat first?


Because 94l has the potential to become a very serious threat to Us.
im sure someone will say something for me saying this...but, 94l is disorganized as hell....im beginning to wonder if it will even develope...if its not a ts by tommorrow, its just gonna go into mexico as a weak system...thats it...
733. K8eCane
fellow NC bloggersa
I'm finding i'm gettin MUCH better and more realistic info on my LOCAL blogs


Link?
will check in here with the consensus at times to let ya know what i'm hearin locally fellow coastal NCers
Athe Hurricane hunters going out today to investigate td3 and 94L?
I just spoke with a buddy of mine who is a Charleston Harbor Pilot....he said they're still bringing ships in....saw about 40 knots out there earlier this AM...pretty rough but nothing too dramatic....those guys, btw, are the unsung heros of the sea....
744. IKE
Buoy close to 94L....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 92 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F"
could we have a repeat??
Quoting caneman911:
what time is 1700 utc


1 PM EDT
The trend with 94L is weakness and failure to develop. Plain and simple.

Hopefully it stays that way!
731.

What do you mean Mr.Sea?
749. IKE

745. pearlandaggie 10:01 AM CDT on July 19, 2008 Hide this comment.
could we have a repeat??


Could be...I think it'll actually got east of extreme south Texas........
749. a cut across the northern Yucatan peninsula would do some disruption as well.
94L is moving over higher TCHP and lower wind shear...I agree with Dr. M that this should become a depression.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
thelmores...out of jail so quickly?? congratulations! LOL


Yea...... I have connections! LOL

I begged and pleaded! :D
754.
Yea...... I have connections! LOL

I begged and pleaded! :D


for what??? you didn't do anything!
Quoting IKE:
Buoy close to 94L....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts

5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 92 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.0 °F"


is that behind or in front of 94L?
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising
757. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
94L is moving over higher TCHP and lower wind shear...I agree with Dr. M that this should become a depression.


There's one on the "believer" side.

Got my car washed and vacuumed....man it's hot as hockey sticks outside....

Oh...nice to have you back 236!
lol theimores. did you get banned?
760. MZV
2 more hours to wait before we see if we have our next cristobal... question why doesnt the HH fly into the immediate threat first?

This coastal low off the Carolinas is a common early season feature. At most it'll be a "Beryl" kind of storm. Maybe it can develop off the coast of Hatteras and threaten New England, but it's still a minor system today.
750. StormW 11:03 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Someone want to remind mother nature that it's only July...and have her knock it off?

Sheesh...hate to see September!


Hell what about July 19 thru August 31......lol
756. vabeachurricanes222 3:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

Behind. 94L is now about 150 miles West of there and moving away from it. That is why the pressure is rising
Hurricane Hunter on their way in to 94L

A learning lurker here, with a question. (There's so much knowledge to be gained in this blog, along with the opposing opinions, it's a very valuable and entertaining place to visit.) Some of the moisture trailing North from 94L looks to be on course to interact with TD3. Any comments on whether this is possible, and what might be the result?
Dr. Steve --- and he said that he believed 94L (what ever it turns into) would be in the gulf by Monday.

You guys concur?
Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like i need to fixs more BBQ crows



id like mine Medium-Rare with some Sweet Baby Rays BBQ sauce.
Quoting StormW:
Someone want to remind mother nature that it's only July...and have her knock it off?

Sheesh...hate to see September!


StormW remember sometimes seasons that start of with a bang may end up being somewhat quieter during the second half.The activity we are having now in no way means were in for a hyper active season atleast in my view.

Hopefully they all stay out sea as its the ones that actually make it onshore that have the greatest impact.
768. IKE
756...that buoy is east of 94L by about...160-170 miles.
Morning all :~)

Yea pearl, Maxwell Smart and the dome of secrecy is very offensive... ~)
763. that is such a cool graphic you put up...where did you get that?
Quoting kmanislander:
756. vabeachurricanes222 3:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

Behind. 94L is now about 150 mlies West of there and moving away from it. That is why the pressure is rising


k thats why i was wonderin, thanks kman
Guys....I'm having trouble viewing the recon page. Any visual you can provide so I can see where recon is at and the winds their finding concerning 94L? (Assuming of course that they have been dispatched)
773. IKE
Quoting SELouisianaGirl:
Dr. Steve --- and he said that he believed 94L (what ever it turns into) would be in the gulf by Monday.

You guys concur?


Yes...I agree.
757. IKE 3:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

I think you know where I stand LOL
Quoting MrSea:
NHC shifts their track more to the W for the new england area, as I thought they would.
Mr Sea do you have the link to that?
Anyone know of another RECON decoder site besides Tropical Atlantic? They are not showing the information coming from the plane headed to TD 03.
weathersp...thanks!
780. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
757. IKE 3:06 PM GMT on July 19, 2008

I think you know where I stand LOL


LOL!

""""""""""""believer!""""""""""
Quoting aubiesgirl:
lol theimores. did you get banned?


yea.... I was trying to give GulfScot a hard time..... he said he was not forecasting anymore, and was just waiting on the cone.....

so I posted this and subsequently received a ban! LOL
782. IKE
Quoting thelmores:
Quoting aubiesgirl:
lol theimores. did you get banned?


yea.... I was trying to give GulfScot a hard time..... he said he was not forecasting anymore, and was just waiting on the cone.....

so I posted this and subsequently received a ban! LOL


OMG....jeez.....
Quoting SELouisianaGirl:
Dr. Steve --- and he said that he believed 94L (what ever it turns into) would be in the gulf by Monday.

You guys concur?



I know and he said it is a bigger threat to CONUS than TD3.
758. StormW 8:06 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
751. Tazmanian 11:04 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
looks like i need to fixs more BBQ crows


Make mine extra spicy Taz! LOL!!


ok will do
777. Taz.
AMEN
786. amd
Quoting SELouisianaGirl:
Dr. Steve --- and he said that he believed 94L (what ever it turns into) would be in the gulf by Monday.

You guys concur?


If it strengthens into a tropical storm sometime in the next 24 hours, yes.

If it stays as an open wave, no.
94L = Katrina?
Quoting thelmores:
Quoting aubiesgirl:
lol theimores. did you get banned?


yea.... I was trying to give GulfScot a hard time..... he said he was not forecasting anymore, and was just waiting on the cone.....

so I posted this and subsequently received a ban! LOL


Thats so stupid. There so uptight.
anything that gets in the gulf now days has a chance to become a monster storm!!
well, no one is safe...
Quoting caneman911:
94L = Katrina?


94L = Invest
785. blueranch1 8:13 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
777. Taz.
AMEN

thanks
Ike,
Hot as Hockey sticks? That kind of contradicts doesn't it? lol :)
Quoting thelmores:
Quoting aubiesgirl:
lol theimores. did you get banned?


yea.... I was trying to give GulfScot a hard time..... he said he was not forecasting anymore, and was just waiting on the cone.....

so I posted this and subsequently received a ban! LOL

I thought that was funny
Quoting Tazmanian:
all downcasters will be put up on my Ignore


i and we can not have a good talk in here with all the downcasting going on with 94L


i dont get how saying 94L wont from is downcasting its my opinion and others opinion. isnt that the same as saying everyone saying it will form based off of... nothing is wishcasting?
hi all,
this is gonna sound like a silly question, but I am gonna ask anyway. if 94L stays a low and goes into the gom, but stays a low. could it cool the sst any?

would it help or hurt the potential for another bigger storm that came through after?
thanks :)
789. true, but 30kts of shear in the western GoM should make things a little more difficult.
Pearlandaggie, where did you get that map?
Nice banding coming together on radar along with 40-50kt quite high up.

Recon still at 25000ft. but getting closer.
well seems a bit much to me...but I'd better be quiet I don't want to get banned again this year..lol..good to see ya back
793. he never said ice hockey sticks! LOL
803. MrSea
my forecast
take a look at the T # for TD 3


ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUL 2008 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 32:34:57 N Lon : 78:31:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.2 2.4 3.4
GOES-12 WV Loop of the Tropical Basin,Large Link
Quoting pearlandaggie:
789. true, but 30kts of shear in the western GoM should make things a little more difficult.


Always good to see another Aggie! Whoop! c/o 2000
790 we on the Georgia coast are safe! ;-)
TD3 has increasing convection to the northeast of the center and has convection on the western side.
Quoting TampaMishy:
Quoting thelmores:
Quoting aubiesgirl:
lol theimores. did you get banned?


yea.... I was trying to give GulfScot a hard time..... he said he was not forecasting anymore, and was just waiting on the cone.....

so I posted this and subsequently received a ban! LOL

I thought that was funny


There in lies the problem, admin doesn't have much of a sense of humor...

but all's well that ends well! LOL
806. c/o '99
I've been trackig this one for awhile. Bring on the Surf!
Large Scale WV Loop with Dry Air Shaded Link
Ah come on Taz, no one is "downcasting". They just have a different opinion. I can't say I blame them. 94L has struggled all along. I still believe it is the greater threat to land in the long-term, we'll just have to wait and see if it can overcome the dry air ahead of it and its interaction with the ULL.
Wow. Bertha is still a hurricane at the same latitude as southern Maine.
take a look at the T # for TD 3


ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JUL 2008 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 32:34:57 N Lon : 78:31:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1007.4mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.2 2.4 3.4


if this is right then that would make TD 3 a strong TS right now
808. famous last words! LOL
Lol folks this will not evovle into another katrina such statements like those without any reason are not needed.The way i see it a threat to the gulf of mexico is quite low at this time but folks around mexico should moniter the situation but no need to panic.

Adrian
Taz is just mad because hes been saying its gonna form and now that its hit the 75W line and nothing has changed hes getting angry at everyone that hs been saying from the beginning nothing will happen
Gotta go, i had a take on my blog why 94L heads north if it gets stronger if anyone wants to read.
What does a raw T# of 3.4 equal?
807 thanks.. nice site
811 did you know Weatherman Ted on Resnet. He lived down the hall from me in Dunn.
Morning all.

I did look in around five am, and noted that 94L's mid-level circulation seemed a bit more pronounced than yesterday. However, it's not really looking stronger now, is it? It still has that wave-like aspect that's trailing high clouds as far north as the Srn Bahamas.

Well, I think by tomorrow evening we'll see the best of 94L, (or the worst, depending on your point of view). By then it will have traversed the most potent waters in the basin THCP-wise, and the wind shear should be down. We'll see.
No one said to panic. Just watch and be prepared. It only makes since to be a bit more cautious than to stick your head in the sand!!!!!
826. MrSea
Quoting dean2007:
What does a raw T# of 3.4 equal?

~54 knots
wow... look at 94L everyone. For a tropical Wave, tha tthing is a BEAST.

I know there's not one there, BUT It almost looks as if there is an eye forming (looking at the higher cloud tops)

I Definately think 94L may cause way more problems than TD3... in the long run

WATCH OUT TEXAS/LOUISIANA in the next 4-5 days
828. MZV
As for TD3 the center seems to be wobbling around, though. It's not marching straight NE right now.


Something has happened with the disturbance: everyone's talking about it. TAZ answered my question. A strong TS.
thanks Adrian...the Katrina comments only come from the ppl who didn't go through Katrina
The winds south of 94L's ''centre'' are coming out of the SSE, wouldn't that suggest the LLCC isn't closed yet? We'll see, but don't be surprised if Recon doesn't find much, again...
LOL me mad why would i be mad???


in fac i am happy right now that 94L did not get has strong has they where forcasting at this point where 94L but i dont think its going to stay like that for march longer



It was really never moving straight to the northeast.
Hurricane Preparation

Naval Safety Center
Link

LT Jason Dalby, VFA-86

With hurricane season upon us again, it's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one. Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many service members and their families.



828. is that an eye i see? LOL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
790 we on the Georgia coast are safe! ;-)


As we are here on the South Carolina coast. Appears to me Wilmington/ Outer Banks are the only potential problems here. Any rain bands that have came onshore, have almost evaporated in front of my eyes....

The biggest impact of TD3 will be shipping interests, and rip-currents along the coast.

I was so hoping we could get 2-4 inches of rain, just doesnt appear likely. We will be "lucky" to get 1 inch storm total in Myrtle Beach......

I suppose things could change.... but there you are.... lots of bark.... little bite! ;)
Thank you patrap.
Instead of crow, how 'bout we all agree to Eskimo Pie?
While recon is going into a disturbance with no closed LLC, TD3 looks like a TS and is showing a good product to be examined for more intensification research. So we can understand the intensification phase of a cyclone.
Quoting caneman911:
94L = Katrina?


Statements like this are not needed without any reasoning.This will not explode into a CAT5 in the gulf.I think this will be a threat to areas way south but we'll see if recon can pin point a well defind surface circulation which iam yet to see with this strong tropical wave.
If this trend continues today we should have a named storm.



Where is the info on how to size a graphic?
why do ppl in US think every thing will hit us.. this thing has been going due west through and through, even if it takes a bit more nothern turn and goes WNW it will hit well South of Texas.. lets worry about Mexico they have a 95% plus chance of getting hit.. this thing is way too fast and will have to almost take an extreme north turn to even hit southern texas, at its speed its probably not going to happen.
TD3 developing convection close to the center again. New thunderstorm growth! Its not anemic.
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
thanks Adrian...the Katrina comments only come from the ppl who didn't go through Katrina


My prayers and thoughts to this day are still with you guys,hopefully mother nature keeps things quite along the gulf-coast this season.
847. MrSea
Quoting JFV:
TD3 looks quite anemic this morning gang!


You think so????
Quoting JFV:
TD3 looks quite anemic this morning gang!


what r u talking about?
Quoting IKE:
Quoting extreme236:
94L is moving over higher TCHP and lower wind shear...I agree with Dr. M that this should become a depression.


There's one on the "believer" side.

Got my car washed and vacuumed....man it's hot as hockey sticks outside....

Oh...nice to have you back 236!


Thanks...its nice to be back!
The low level circulation is a beast. Mr. Sea what do you think will happen to move the depression further north, up the coast?
Westerlies are protecting the New England area. Stalled frontal system.
94L is really piling on the convection! More than I have seen on it in a while!
Remember: Almost nowhere is Safe..

This is all Hurricanes too.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
828. is that an eye i see? LOL


yea.... I think so! LOL

Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL me mad why would i be mad???


in fac i am happy right now that 94L did not get has strong has they where forcasting at this point where 94L but i dont think its going to stay like that for march longer





well you just said that everyone that says 94L wont develop u will ignore...
bbl, folks.
94l is looking better now
846. Yeah....Katrina was no fun. Neither is the clean-up afterwards...
790. pearlandaggie 3:14 PM GMT on July 19, 2008
well, no one is safe...


Thanks pearlandaggie - I like this graphic. It makes me feel safer on my barrier island near Jax since my hubby is out to sea during hurricane season every year.
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 20 frame Loop Link
862. afj3
Greetings to everybody. I have grown up with hurricanes but am kind of new to tracking them. Does anyone know where I can find a site with access to--and explanations of--the computer models and other related materials in a more real-time fashion?

Thanks!!!
Quoting GulfScotsman:
Quoting msuwxman:
94L is really piling on the convection! More than I have seen on it in a while!


Difluence from the ULL along the wave axis. This convective burst is already beginning to past peak and will now slowly die away.

In about 4 hours we should see very little left of any mid level rotation and the OPEN wave axis should be quite visible moving west with some minor popcorn convection through DMIN.


What are you talking about? Last night you said there wasn't going to be a depression and 5 minutes later it was on the NHC site lol...I highly doubt what you just said will come true.
You can tell some dry air is effecting TD3 with the central convection rather weak right now. A nice curved band around the center though. Should soon become a Tropical Storm.
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.

855. thelmores


thel did you put that in the center? looks a lil off to me lol
If there is a LLC with 94L, which I don't think there is, than it's totally exposed to the west of all the convection. The convection is with the mid level circulation it appears. This thing is still a ways from being classified...IMO.
672. tennisgirl08 10:36 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Good morning everyone!

I look at satellite imagery and 94L doesn't look all that impressive. The 8am update at NHC says that it has not become any more organized this morning. Yet, Dr. Steve Lyons at TWC and some of you on here say a closed circulation is very close to forming and is on its way to becoming a TD. I am really confused and this storm has really been giving me fits!!


Hey, tgirl. It's really not that confusing in one sense, because both of those statements (from NHC and from Dr. Lyons) are true.

What's really confusing is that they've been true for days . . . Since the beginning of this week 94L has been favoured to develop because it has had some of the elements of a potential TD/TS in place since then. However, the basic, most basic qualification for a tropical cyclone is that it has to be a cyclone (that is, a closed low, with the winds circulating counterclockwise towards its centre). Without that, the Twave is just another area of low pressure.

So while a closed low is close to forming (last time I checked, it was winds from the west along that southern edge that were lacking) it's not there yet. And it's been like that at least since, oh Wednesday? So the ideas are not really opposite. They're just really frustrating . . . LOL

And 94L IS really impressive. . . for a Twave. What I can't figure out, despite all the careful and thorough explanations here and elsewhere is WHY it is struggling so hard to get that low closed off. Last year we had naked swirl after naked swirl; they'd have 3 wispy surface clouds, but that closed low would be there, spinning away. What did those lows have that 94L doesn't????
856. vabeachurricanes222 8:35 AM PDT on July 19, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL me mad why would i be mad???


in fac i am happy right now that 94L did not get has strong has they where forcasting at this point where 94L but i dont think its going to stay like that for march longer






well you just said that everyone that says 94L wont develop u will ignore


ok whats this drop what i said and move on to 94L and TD 3 ok???
94L still has a ways to go. But I don't understand how you right off a system that is just now starting to move into a ripe environment for some intensification...low shear, warm SSTs, higher TCHP, etc. 94L never had any of this before until about now. It already has 30 knot winds so its pretty vigorous.
Man..... I love this blog!!!!

TD3 looks better
TD3 looks anemic
94L looks better
94L looks worse
94L = Katrina
94L = iNVEST
TD3 will be Crystobal
TD3 lots of bark, little bite

LOL
Here is 95L from the NHC EPAC discussion:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT SHOWED SIGNS OF DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN A FEW DAYS AGO HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND EMERGED INTO THE EPAC ALONG 90W MOVING W ABOUT 10
KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N/13N. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IT FITS A PAIR OF SHIP OBS AT 12Z.
THE WESTERN-MORE SHIP (OUSH2) LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF THE
CENTER REPORTED 20 KT NW WINDS AND THIS WAS USED TO OUTLINE THE
WIND FIELD IN THE HSF PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. SOME OF THIS IS
OVER S PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO AND
THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Aircraft recon just got a 34 knot SFMR reading from 94L
Quoting will40:
855. thelmores


thel did you put that in the center? looks a lil off to me lol


I was just showing TD3's eye.... LOL
Yay! GulfScotsman is here! I, for one, get and appreciate your satire, good sir. Plus, you tend to help keep the "OMG!" posts in check.
i think 94 might be the storm the help the southeast with their drought. to me it looks like it is going to head NW over the western part of cuba then into GOM and up the western coast of FL. just what i think after watching the water vapor loops
Quoting SWFLgazer:
Instead of crow, how 'bout we all agree to Eskimo Pie?
So long as we get to have a food fight with it first. . . . oooh icy hot in reverse . . . . LOL

Hopefully nobody will need to eat anything they don't WANT to this time around . . .

Now back to your regularly scheduled blog . . .
How many times over the years have systems left us scratching our heads wondering why they didn't develop when the conditions became more favorable but for some reason it just didn't happen? I'm not saying the conditions may not become more favorbale...I'm just saying I don't think it will matter. I think 94L will turn out to be one of those systems which leave us scratching our heads again.
880. thelmores

yea i know thel jus messin wif ya lol
remember models are meant for guidance purposes only and are not to be taken as the final desination in any weather event things can and will change stay tune to updated statements form your local mets or the NHC for official information.
885.

Well this thing has almost become a depression about 3 times already and its about to get an extra boost from favorable wind shear and higher TCHP. Recon already found a 34 knot wind reading.
Quoting extreme236:
885.

Well this thing has almost become a depression about 3 times already and its about to get an extra boost from favorable wind shear and higher TCHP. Recon already found a 34 knot wind reading.


Remebmer thats from flight level which is currently 25,000 ft.. I would highly doubt that's accurate.
879. weathersp 11:46 AM EDT on July 19, 2008

Im a graphic designer, Wuba Wear, thats funny stuff, cat 5 approved, fema approval pending is a nice touch.
Guys... there's a new blog.
892. CJ5
Quoting GulfScotsman:
Quoting hurricane23:
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.




Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Well, with all due respect, that is what this place is about. It is quite appropriate to talk about current, developing and potential tropical threats. I don't think anything is being left unsaid about the current threats.
94L does have low level convergence which it has been lacking the past several days. That is the only difference with it right now. As I said a bit ago, won't be long, maybe as early as this evening.
889.

It may not be accurate but it shows that the system isn't just some weak blob of convection.
I've looked and looked, but haven't figured it out. What is the approximate loction of the center of circulation on 94L? On satellite it almost looks like there are two.
Quoting CJ5:
Quoting GulfScotsman:

Quoting hurricane23:
Folks here is the heads up on our next invest of the africa coast.This wave has a very nice spin/structure to it.Should roll of the coast early next week.

Model support is there.




Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Well, with all due respect, that is what this place is about. It is quite appropriate to talk about current, developing and potential tropical threats. I don't think anything is being left unsaid about the current threats.


but the thing on africa wont be here for another three weeks, while TD 3 could be a TS uhhh. right now!
Again if TD 3 was a threat to either FLA or NO thats all we would talk about why do you think 80% of the conversation is about an open wave? because it still has a chance to affect the Gulf states...
Quoting weathersp:
Remember: Almost nowhere is Safe..

This is all Hurricanes too.
image deleted
wxsp, I just realized how misleading that is to GA coast residents, making it seem storms don't land there. While there has been a 100 year break (100 years! - the rest of the coast hasn't been so lucky) just before the turn of the century (1900) GA was struck something like 5 times in a two year period. Some of those other "blank spots" aren't so blank when one digs further into the historical record.

But your point is well taken, I hope!


873. GulfScotsman 11:43 AM EDT on July 19, 2008
Classic. We have a potential Tropical Storm right next to shore, a potential threat in the Western Caribbean and we get the .... wow look at those storms in the Sahara.

I love this place.


Hey, GScot, some of us do live with more than the thought of today in our minds. . . . lol it's called forecasting . . .
901. MrSea
897 but that African swirl will be a nasty cane!
8pm TWO

2. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

lol
94L only has one more thing to become a depression and is producing 40-45 mph winds. Just like pre Claudette in 2003 when it was east of the Windwards.

1. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT
HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS PRODUCING
WINDS OF 40-45 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT
JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.