WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Depression 16 forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 AM GMT on October 28, 2007

The surface low pressure system about 150 miles south of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border has gained enough organization to be upgraded to Tropical Depression 16. Long range radar of of Puerto Rico shows bands of heavy rain continuing to affect the region. Satellite loops show most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is to the north and east of the low's center of circulation, but these thunderstorms have shown some impressive development tonight. Wind shear has fallen to 15-20 knots tonight, and is expected to fall below 15 knots on Sunday. This should allow TD 16 to develop into a tropical storm on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite rainfall estimate for TD 16.

This is a slow moving system that will dump very dangerous amounts of rain along its path. The system will continue to bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding and mudslides to Puerto Rico through Sunday night. Heavy rains of up to eight inches have already fallen in southeast Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1). Heavy rains will also affect the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and are likely to trigger life-threatening flash floods in Haiti.

This afternoon's 18Z (2 pm EDT) major intensity forecast models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models--all agree that TD 16 will intensify into a hurricane. The 18Z GFDL, HWRF, and UKMET models predict TD 16 will move northwesterly across Hispaniola, then into the Bahamas on Tuesday, and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane over the central Bahamas on Tuesday. A trough of low pressure would then swing TD 16 northeastwards out to sea. This forecast track seems unreasonable, as TD 16 has headed more to the west today than these models predicted.

The ECMWF and GFS models predict TD 16 will track west-northwest along the length of Cuba, then pass within 50 miles of Miami on Thursday before recurving northeastwards out to sea. These models do not intensify TD 16 into a hurricane, due to the amount of time the storm spends over the mountainous terrain of Cuba. This is a reasonable forecast, should TD 16 track over Cuba for a long distance.

I believe the 12Z forecast of the NOGAPS model, which predicts a more southerly track into the Western Caribbean, just south of Cuba, is the most reasonable one. This track would favor TD 16 developing into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane, since the heat content of the waters in the Western Caribbean is high, and the wind shear will be lower further to the south.

The area of disturbed area of weather in the extreme Western Caribbean, just east of the Yucatan Peninsula now appears to be too insignificant to affect the path or intensity of TD 16 very much.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Link

i think we have a tropical storm but hisponola is affecting the inflow some now and for the next 12 hours..
you all go out and go in joye your sunday wind shear is this too strong for TD 16 and will go out too sea any way
Well, this update is pretty fresh - posted late last night - so it's not like we're going to run out of posting room or anything . . .
504. IKE
The folks in DR and Haiti are in for a rough ride with all of the heavy rain headed toward them.
taz would that be the storm that was not even going to develop, lol
Hey Taz,

Out to sea is over my head right now! I'm SUPPOSED to be watching . . . .

LOL

Glad to see u survived the upwind smoke from the San Diego area . . .

Wait, u're not that far south, are u?
Taz

You said RIP for the invest that is now TD16 !

How would you like your crow served LOL
LSU Earth Scan Labs Link

Fake FEMA Press Conference Linkie..Link
Lakewood (Britton Hill), in NW Florida, 345 Feet
Lowest State High Point in U.S.
511. IKE
Tazmanian 10:22 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
you all go out and go in joye your sunday wind shear is this too strong for TD 16 and will go out too sea any way


TAZ...shear is around 20 knots and decreasing near the COC.

Link

Appears to be moving more northwesterly to me.

Link
track mark
16.9n/71.8w 90L/T.S./N
System really seems to be wrapping up. However I see a more northward movement. How about you guys?
TCW, Looking at that visible, I shudder to think what we might have had on our hands had it not been for that ULL . . . the eastern side of the storm looks like an "already" TS . .
spare us the bush bashing we have a storm in the water!!
I agree BAHA! NHC even commented on how good it looks for a depression, especially in 20kts of ENE shear.
i am smoking your crow right now taz, should be ready before this is upgraded to a storm...
518. IKE
HIEXPRESS 10:26 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
Lakewood (Britton Hill), in NW Florida, 345 Feet
Lowest State High Point in U.S


I live about 15 miles from there and have taken several "pit stops" to relieve myself over the years(sales job). There's nothing there but squirrels and a couple of picnic tables!!
anyone tracking the plane obs.
It will be interesting to see the updated loop on the Visible.
T.D. 16 does appears to be having a hard time moving westerly and wants to lift up and out to the North.
That could change with the next loop image.
850 Cimms, supports a possible relocation to the ENE.
510. HIEXPRESS 11:26 AM EDT on October 28, 2007
Lakewood (Britton Hill), in NW Florida, 345 Feet
Lowest State High Point in U.S.


LOL. I was just thinking about how vertically challenged FL is. Last Christmas I was amazed to discover a hill - no a small range of hills - in extreme NW Broward. It was the first time I'd seen one in my many years of travel there.

It's actually pretty hilly in the Bahamas. It's just that the hills are only around 100 feet tall . . . LOL 200 feet is mountainous (Mt. Alvernia, Cat Island, highest point in the country at 204 ft.).
Central Dense Overcast?

taz hurricane is coming and it may very well be a major possible cat 4 but 3 for sure it will end up se of miami about 40 miles out after crossing west end cuba maybe over g bay then track up east coast offshore as a very deep extratropical low by the time next weekend comes
520. Sfloridacat5 11:33 AM EDT on October 28, 2007
It will be interesting to see the updated loop on the Visible.
T.D. 16 does appears to be having a hard time moving westerly and wants to lift up and out to the North.


This would mean the models forecasting the shift across Hispaniola would be RIGHT!!!
td16 reminds me of ernesto
527. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
900 am EDT sun Oct 28 2007


Discussion...the transition between the dry and moist airmass has
continued to shift further westward overnight and early this
morning. As a result...skies are mostly cloudy generally east of a
line from Apalachicola to Albany with mostly sunny conditions over
our western zones. Local radars also show patchy light rain or
sprinkles from across Apalachee Bay northeastward over the
southeast Big Bend and the Valdosta region. Not much change to this
scenario is expected for the remainder of the day and is well
covered in zones.
518. IKE 3:30 PM
"pit Stops"
Too much info, buddy. LOL
When are the hurricane hunters leaving?
531. IKE
JFV 10:41 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
So then is south florida caompletely 100% out of the woods then. Hip Hip Horay


No...it's too early to know for sure.
patrap got a wide angle on this one for us?
No hills in my area.
My location is one of the higher elevations in my area (30 ft above sea level).


528. JFV 11:41 AM EDT on October 28, 2007
So then is south florida caompletely 100% out of the woods then. Hip Hip Horay

Uh NO!

This place really frustrates me sometimes with all this miss information that is put out.
535. IKE
HIEXPRESS 10:41 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
518. IKE 3:30 PM
"pit Stops"
Too much info, buddy. LOL


Sorry.
From the CIMSS site:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2007 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 16:29:02 N Lon : 72:28:53 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -19.8C Cloud Region Temp : -38.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.46 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.64 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 15:28:47 N Lon: 71:28:48 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Hang on folks....

The track is extremely uncertain, yet I see many saying "whew!! That was a close call for FL."

Guys, no one is out of the woods yet. Even Knabb stated this track is highly uncertain and TD16 could spend three or four extra days traversing S and W of Cuba, so let's see what the HH's are able to get synoptically.
Once we get some data from recon into the models they should have a little better of an idea where it may go
Guys, no one is out of the woods yet. Even Knabb stated this track is highly uncertain and TD16 could spend three or four extra days traversing S and W of Cuba, so let's see what the HH's are able to get synoptically.

Yup.. Nobody is out of the woods yet.
I think its possible recon could go in 16L and may find 40 to maybe even 45mph sfc winds
Impressive could tops for sure!I'll bet recon will find that center relocated under the deep convection.

last few frames you can see td16 getting tighten up and a white spec in the middle at 18 north is this the center showing up now ?
GOES_12 Visible Image Low Cloud Product
TD-16

Link
According to the ADT the center has been gradually moving under the deeper convection all morning. Center temp is now -17 degrees celsius cooling more
but recon will give us a better location of the center
I agree Adrian, Happy Birthday BTW.
To me it would almost make since for the center to not be under that deeper convection because shear is still 15-20 knots or so, so IMO it wouldnt be situated so far in the system yet
I thought the Hurricane Hunter went out at 10:30 this morning. Where's Skyepony?
I am very intrigued as to what the HH's find.
Definatley looks like a CDO is developing as indicated by TerraNova.
551. IKE
New 12Z GFS is out through 42 hours...has it brushing Haiti and then going over Jamaica...

Link
Let us all hope that TD16 does NOT take the NOGAPS track solution! That would put this sucker in prime conditions for several more days.
00
NOUS42 KNHC 271515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 27 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA - CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 16.0N 74.5W
E. SFC TO 10,000 FT FROM 1730Z TO 2200Z

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 29/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 29/0300Z
D. 16.1N 76.0W
E. SFC TO 10,000FT FROM 0500Z TO 0900Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
WARRANTS.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SMR
JFV- Sorry if I came off a little annoyed. No need to apologize my friend. I just want people to understand that there is such a divide in the model track guidance, and until we get some upper level synoptics plugged into the models, it's a big guess right now.
Link

the eyes have it
Happy Sunday Pat!

How are ya doin?

Where's the shear?
Looks like the ULL is loosing quicker than expected. Last couple frames seem like it's disipating.
Not saying this is going to happen with TD16 but remember 2007 is the year of rapidly intensifying systems.
Jonesing till 3:15 CDT
Saints on WEST coast with the 49ers..LOL
Dr. Lyons just said a weaker system would favor a more westerly track.
A strengthening storm will most likely be pulled North sooner.

He seems to have back off his "florida is out of the woods" comments.
He now says that the only place in the U.S. that could be affected by the storm would be Florida.

The new GFS seems to have it stalling out just west of Jamaica it seems.... at least through 72 hours.
They must have re-run the dvorak...number is higher

T2.0/2.0 16L -- Atlantic Ocean
Thats wierd Hhunter..
I don't see shear...
The BAMS and BAMM 12z runs have shifted to the west some...
New Dorvak #'s
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

The amount of collected data that goes into these models must be enormous.
570. RM706
Pushing the dry air right out of the way. Take a look [here]

-Bubblehead
Howdy Drak! How you doin today?
Whens the Recon going out??? ( EST ) sorry for the stupid question.
keeper of the gate why you calling for a cat 3 or 4 . when they only say it will go as high as maybe 60mph imo i say cat 1 or close to cat 2 next
Hi from St. Thomas!

It's been raining here for days and this stupid system just won't move fast enough to get us out from under it.

Luck to everyone west of us!
Just saw the BAMS...

Somebody please wakeup Jeff Masters!
didnt the plane go out at 11.15 est time ?
Dr. Masters may be waiting for the recon data...

Not sure though.
571. nash28 4:04 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Howdy Drak! How you doin today?

doing good. I see the GFDL still hasn't gotten over its "hangover" lol.
dr masters waiting for update may come after planes are out i will post plots on future track soon just finishing up the math almost done 90l/T.S/N is on coarse at the moment tonight dmax maybe excepional strong.
TD16 is winning vs the ULL and shear. You can see outflow starting up on the west side of the storm where it was being suppressed before.
12z GFS 96hrs out...

Stalling TD16 S of Cuba.
CMC has this sucker as a pretty deep storm eyeing Bermuda!! Link
579. nash28 12:08 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
Dr. Masters may be waiting for the recon data...

Not sure though.

Well if that the case dotn expect a new blog out until 3 or something.
The ULL should start to vent 16L when it gets far enough away from it.
Yeah Drak. A little odd to me that the GFDL still hasn't figured out that the ULL is washing out quickly and will have no impact in terms of a quick turn NEWD.
The GFS is similar the BAMS at this point. Stalling the system alot though..
Yeah Myles! Looks like the ULL is dissipating a little sooner than expected.
Whens the Recon going out??? ( EST ) sorry for the stupid question:)
The BamM and BamS looking west
The GFS 12z has the Upper level low dissipating soon....
Well JFV, I have been ready all season long for the "just in case" scenario. Basically, if my wife and I need to get out of dodge, we're ready.
Hello Drak how are you today!?
Nash look at this loop and tell me what you see?

See Here
You can be sure Dr. Masters is watching 16...He posted twice yesterday, on a Saturday!
nash28...You think thats why the GFDL is recurving it so soon? I just took a look at the run and saw it recurving before it even got past the forecast ridge axis to the north. Seemed a little wacky to me.
108hrs on GFS still hasn't budged TD16. Sits very close to the western tip of Cuba.

20N 80W or so...
596. Stormchaser2007 4:13 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Hello Drak how are you today!?


doing good...
Yeah Myles.. The GFDL and HWRF are both still overdoing the interaction with the ULL.

That ULL is about to wash out. Unless the computers are broken, I expect a WWD shift at some point from both models.
Usually tracks are uncertain for depressions and also for slow storms. Time will tell what will happen. Hopefully it won't strengthen too rapidly for those in harms way.
I repeat...Where's the shear?
Hey storm rcon is going out at 1800z which is 6PM-5hrs which is 1PM this afternoon which is in 1 hour..

Sorry for delay.
Anybody have a map of the oceans heat content?
Ok guys. I have to cut the grass, so I will be back in a bit.
How much of a tug was the ULL affecting the system.
609. Rodek
Alright... have my question of the day... What when a ULL dissipates? Is this a sign of a storm strengthing?
isn't there dry air punching into td 16 from the SW??, shouldn't that limit any strengthening for a while??
Nash trim your trees also......lol
Forgot about that map Kman!
Hey storm rcon is going out at 1800z which is 6PM-5hrs which is 1PM this afternoon which is in 1 hour..

Sorry for delay.


Thank You!! :) SO in 40 minutes...
yeah, lots of warm water ahead !
System is still undergoing some southwesterly shear. You can see the circulation center pressing west while the cold cloud top move to the north and east.
Kman so wants it gets on the other side of Jamacia (if it does) alot of warm water to play with it looks like.
I dont see any dry air punching into the storm...


Thanks again SP!!
Even before reaching Jamaica !

If the upper air dynamics align the TCHP will support a very strong system
GFS doesn't really develop the system much. Also doesn't show alot of moisture in the region. We will see.
Thanks, Drak...the shear map doesn't show that, probably because it is dropping off.
Right now shear is one of the factors limiting this thing from RI for a while...
I don't like how things are panning out
625. IKE
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.

Link
this is from frank s at accuweather

Tropics Come To Life
Sunday, October 28, 2007
11:30 am Sunday:

Sorry to be so much like Joe Bastardi (Pro) here, y'all, but AH COME ON!!! Name the thing already!

Aside from the obvious (at right), we don't have anything that indicates that Noel TD16 is a storm yet, but I'm pretty sure that it will be a storm... and I suspect that it gets to hurricane strength as well. The shear over the western and central Caribbean has relaxed considerably and as I have been showing y'all, the water is warm down there. So, we have a problem, and it's name is will be Noel.

Well, that's the "what
Yeah at the GFS last frame it show a large Storm of Newfoundland....
SH2007 check the WV loop..
Wonder if the NHC will shift the track west at 2pm .....
625. IKE 4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.


That looks like a different area of low pressure. I can't see the system traveling thousands of miles in the space of 6 hours.
Shear is pretty light around the southern part of the storm, but on the north side it ramps up to about 20 kts. Luckily for the storm, and not so much us in S. Fla, the shear on the north side is also ventilating the storm as well as any hindering it might be doing.

And Rodek, an ULL near a storm dissipating doesn't necessarily mean the storm is strengthening. It generally works the other way. The ULL dissipates allowing the storm to strengthen, not the storm is strengthening making the ULL dissipate.
632. 0741
i have updated my blog with lastest AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007 here is linkLink
Where are you seeing the dry air affecting 16?? Link
Question on the BAM models. For a system to stay the course with the BAMS the system is weak. At what point would you jump to the BAMM then and on to the BAMD. Hope this makes sence for someone...
Well got to go food shopping be back soon.. bye!!:)
636. IKE
630. Drakoen 11:27 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
625. IKE 4:24 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
GFS 12Z has the system SW of Bermuda in 138 hours.

That looks like a different area of low pressure. I can't see the system traveling thousands of miles in the space of 6 hours.


It gets drawn NNE over time....

Link

system impressive on the IR. Still the circulation center is riding on the southwest portion of the convective mass.
Right now i would use the Bam meadium model.. gtg!! bye
At the same time we may see the track futher away from florida if the center is relocated under the deep convection.
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.
PINHOLE EYE!!!

No not really but a piece of white makes it look like it.

Gulfstream IV (Gonzo) flight tomorrow afternoon

FLIGHT TWO NOAA 49
A.30/0000Z
B.NOAA9 0416A CYCLONE
C.29/1730Z
D.NA
E.NA
F.41,000 FT TO 45,000

644. IKE
Drakoen 11:34 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.


Looks like the energy gets transfered NNE to the northern low.
645. Rodek
Thank you for the answer HirricaneMyles. Exactly what I was looking for.
That not an eye forming lol. I have seen that cloud formation dozen of times this season. If you want to know where the center of circulation is go to the ADT site.
644. IKE 4:35 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Drakoen 11:34 AM CDT on October 28, 2007
Ike at 120 hours the low is just south of Cuba on the GFS 12z run. A different low forms of the Carolina coast.

Looks like the energy gets transfered NNE to the northern low.


yes. That i agree with. Again we will see lol.
That not an eye forming lol.

I know It just looks like it. I ain't that crazy.
651. Rodek
What would be the next sign of strengthening?
the td16 track is mad!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Drak, i think we have seen less presentation qualified as a storm then we currently have now on Satellite.
Quite a Split in the tracks..
Rodek, becoming more symmetrical usually means strengthening. However, like everything, there are exceptions.
657. MZT
There is a new blog post by Dr. Masters now.
654. weathersp 12:41 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
Quite a Split in the tracks..



Will be interesting to see which models start going the other direction.
Heres a great link for current water temps near TD 16... Link
654. weathersp 4:41 PM GMT on October 28, 2007
Quite a Split in the tracks..


Where did you get that graphic.. love to bookmark the page
Where did you get that graphic.. love to bookmark the page

Here you go.. Take some time to get used to the page.. Its kind of complicated.

[Link]
recon is up!
The far east side around 18.15N 68.90W is showing alotta TS force winds on the SFMR. Lets see how the trend hold looks like a few false readings with OMG 145kt surface winds with flight level winds at 22kts in the same spot. Usually see this with big altitude changes. 37.9mph is the highest flight level, 47mph highest surface (other than 3 hurricane force reading that don't look right)
& they are still at 20000'.
Looks like they threw out atleast one sondes on the was to St Criox yesterday. Models maybe more accurate than we knew...