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Tropical Cyclone Nanauk a threat to Oman; Hurricane Cristina Forms in Eastern Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on June 11, 2014

Oman is nervously watching Tropical Cyclone Nanauk (also called Tropical Cyclone Two), a tropical storm with 65 mph winds that is moving west-northwest at 6 mph across the Arabian Sea. Nanauk is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F). Very warm waters extend to great depth beneath the storm, giving it a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of 80 - 120 kJ/cm^2, the type of heat energy that is often associated with rapid intensification. However, Nanauk lies at the southern edge of a large area of dry air coming off the deserts of the Middle East, which is interfering with development. In addition, Nanauk is on the northern edge of the advancing Southwest Monsoon, and strong upper-level winds out of the east associated with the monsoon are bringing high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, disrupting the circulation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nanauk over the Arabian Sea.

Forecast for Nanauk
Nanauk is expected to continue moving west-northwest towards Oman the remainder of the week, which will bring the storm into an area with dryer air but lower wind shear. It is difficult to predict how these two competing influences might affect the storm. As a result, the track and intensity forecasts are very divergent. The European model dissipates Nanauk by Wednesday, while the GFS model keeps the storm strong, until weakening occurs shortly before landfall in Oman near 21 UTC on Saturday. Given the storm's ability to fight off high wind shear thus far, I am inclined to go with the GFS forecast of a weakening tropical storm at landfall. Tropical cyclones typically weaken rapidly as they approach the coast of Oman, due to very dry air over the Middle East getting sucked into their circulation.


Figure 2. Progress of the Southwest Monsoon in India in 2014 (blue line and white lines), compared to average (red dashed lines.) The monsoon is running about 4 - 11 days behind schedule, which has allowed Tropical Cyclone Nanauk room to form in the Arabian Sea. Image credit: India Meteorological Department.

The Monsoon and India
The North Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons--one in May and June before the Southwest Monsoon arrives, and one in October - November after the Monsoon has departed. Ordinary tropical cyclones typically do not form during the monsoon, but huge "monsoon depressions" that fill nearly the entire Bay of Bengal with sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph occasionally form during the monsoon. Nanauk formed just at the leading edge of the advancing monsoon, which is running 4 -11 days behind this year. Nanauk is sapping much of the energy of the monsoon today, which is much less active than it was early in the week. The monsoon is vital to the well-being of India, since the farm sector accounts for 14% of India's nearly $2 trillion economy, and half of India's farmland lacks access to irrigation. The likely development of El Niño this year is of concern for agriculture in India, since El Niño tends to cut down on the monsoon's rains. All of India's great famines since the late 1800s have come in years when the monsoon rains failed during El Niño events.

Record heat scorching India and Nepal
India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh typically experience their hottest weather in May and June, just before the arrival of the cooling rains of the monsoon. As reported by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post, India has seen extreme heat for the past week, which has led to electricty shortages and riots. At New Delhi’s Palam Airport, the temperature reached 47.8°C (118.0°F) on June 8th, their 2nd hottest temperature ever measured. Agra hit a blistering 47.3° (117.1°F) on June 10th, and 48.6°C (119.5°F) was reported from Ganganagar on June 8th, the warmest reading so far in the country in 2014. In Nepal, the temperature peaked at 45.2°C (113.4°F) at Dipayal, just short of the all-time national record for any month of 46.4°C (115.5°F) set at Dhanghadi on June 16, 1995. Europe has also seen record-breaking June temperatures this week, with Germany hitting its second highest temperature ever recorded in June, 37.9°C (100.2°F) on June 9th in Ihringen.

Cristina becomes a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific's second hurricane of 2014 is here, as Hurricane Cristina intensified overnight into a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Cristina has ingested some dry air and has now leveled off in intensity. Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and it is unlikely that any watches or warnings will be required for this storm.

The usual formation date for the second hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season is July 14, so we are over a month ahead of usual for hurricanes in 2014. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, is calling for an active season, with around 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes. This year is shaping up to be an El Niño year, and El Niño conditions typically increase the sea surface temperatures and decrease the vertical wind shear over the tropical Eastern Pacific, favoring the development of more and stronger tropical cyclones.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Cristina off the Pacific coast of Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the coming five days. The GFS model continues to predict that about 6 - 9 days from now the upper level winds over the Western Caribbean will relax and low-level moisture will build, potentially allowing a tropical disturbance with heavy rains to develop there. However, the European model keeps the wind shear high over the Western Caribbean early next week, so any development in the region remains in doubt.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Masters
I wonder when the ATL will wake up. Also could be some WPAC action later this week.
thanks doc, gfs says next week we may have something to watch down in the carribean........................
Thanks for another great post :D
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks,Dr. Masters
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters!
Thanks Jeff...
2014 Tornado Season - not talked about or really blogged about much.



Quoting 2. LargoFl:

thanks doc, gfs says next week we may have something to watch down in the carribean........................

Yep
maybe in the year 2020 hurricane and tropical storm maybe getting a last name to like people!!
Quoting 2. LargoFl:

thanks doc, gfs says next week we may have something to watch down in the carribean........................


It's been saying that for about 3 weeks. Maybe eventually it will get it right. As Dr M mentioned, conditions could become a bit more favorable in over a week. It's a waiting game.
Thanks for the New Post, Dr. Masters....
GFS is my favorite model, but I won't put any trust in it until an actual low forms.

Later in the season, the GFS will become more accurate with its longer range forecasts. But until an actual low forms, model accuracy is low.
Strong line of storms getting ready to come on shore.
Quoting 10. hurricanes2018:

maybe in the year 2020 hurricane and tropical storm maybe getting a last name to like people!!
That would be weird, but what I would like to see is more modern day names.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
That would be weird, but what I would like to see is more modern day names.


Hurricane Paula Deen
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

2014 Tornado Season - not talked about or really blogged about much.




It's tornado season?
Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.

Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

2014 Tornado Season - not talked about or really blogged about much.





It's not much to talk about, lol. The number of confirmed tornadoes, not tornado reports, is about 250. The 10-year average is near 670. For comparison, 2011 had around 1,040 confirmed by this date*.

Edited*
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Cristina is looking nice. Eye is popping back out in the latest frames.
Quoting MAstu:
It's tornado season?


Yes, but we've already passed the peak (just barely) of the season. June is still an active month for tornadoes though.
I think some forget that a quiet June in the tropics in the Atlantic is normal
1.5 inches in a little over an hour here in Palm Bay
Quoting 8. Sfloridacat5:

2014 Tornado Season - not talked about or really blogged about much.





Tornado season has been incredibly quiet this year, so there's really not much to talk about.

However, it looks like there's potential for several days of severe weather across the plains starting this weekend. At least it's something to keep an eye on.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks for the blog, Dr. Masters.


It's not much to talk about, lol. The number of confirmed tornadoes, not tornado reports, is about 250. The 10-year average is near 670. For comparison, 2011 had around 1,040 confirmed by this date*.

Edited*


A second year with a below average number of tornadoes. Will have to see if the hurricane season follows the same trend.
Latest microwave scan of Hurricane Cristina. Dry air is putting up a fight, but the storm's putting up a big one too.

Quoting 22. palmbaywhoo:

1.5 inches in a little over an hour here in Palm Bay



Oh, is that how much we got? I'm up in Melbourne. I think we might've gotten a little more judging by radar though.
27. Ed22
Quoting 19. Ameister12:

Thanks Dr. Masters!

Cristina is looking nice. Eye is popping back out in the latest frames.

Hurricane Cristina wow rapid intensification has slowed somewhat but that won't stop it from reaching category two status by late this evening. Bet me Hurricane cristina is a potent storm and very organised.

Quoting 26. Unfriendly:



Oh, is that how much we got? I'm up in Melbourne. I think we might've gotten a little more judging by radar though.
Now saying just under 2 inches for my weather station (palmbayweather.com)
SHould get a bit more, looks like a nice little train building
is 12z running?
Quoting 28. palmbaywhoo:


Now saying just under 2 inches for my weather station (palmbayweather.com)
SHould get a bit more, looks like a nice little train building



And me with a leaky convertible. Sigh.
How can 2nd warmest be record breaking ?
Quoting 1. AussieStorm:

Thanks Dr Masters
I wonder when the ATL will wake up...


August........2015. So stay calm...
S.W. flow across the state means the Eastcoast of Florida will see late afternoon T storms.
Usually its the Westcoast, but the lower level flow is opposite of our "normal" wet season pattern.
I've had people here in ECFL, who have lived here all there lives, say that hurricane season always starts in September.

Quoting 21. Hurricanes101:

I think some forget that a quiet June in the tropics in the Atlantic is normal
Quoting 31. MahFL:

How can 2nd warmest be record breaking ?


How can the statement "Record heat scorching India and Nepal" be confused with "record breaking"? 2nd warmest is still a record, is it not?

Edit: To expand, the 2nd warmest would certainly be a daily record high for the location, even though it falls just short of an all-time high.
"New Delhi: Breaking 62-year-old record, the national capital on Sunday evening touched a maximum temperature of 47.8 degrees Celsius, reports said.

“The area around Palam airport recorder a maximum temperature of 47.8 degrees Celsius,” the MeT officials said.
Link
Quoting 2. LargoFl:

thanks doc, gfs says next week we may have something to watch down in the carribean........................
Yeah we've had something to "Watch" down in the caribbean in a week for the past month now.The GFS is pathetic.
Quoting 35. Naga5000:



How can the statement "Record heat scorching India and Nepal" be confused with "record breaking"? 2nd warmest is still a record, is it not?

Edit: To expand, the 2nd warmest would certainly be a daily record high for the location, even though it falls just short of an all-time high.


Dr. M never stated in the paragraph that any reading were actual records. 2nd highest is not record breaking. He also I guess did not specify in the heading if it was all time or daily records.
Quoting 38. MahFL:



Dr. M never stated in the paragraph that any reading were actual records. 2nd highest is not record breaking. He also I guess did not specify in the heading if it was all time or daily records.


He didn't say "record breaking" in regards to it either.

"Record heat scorching India and Nepal
India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh typically experience their hottest weather in May and June, just before the arrival of the cooling rains of the monsoon. As reported by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest blog post, India has seen extreme heat for the past week. At New Delhi%u2019s Palam Airport, the temperature reached 47.8C (118.0F) on June 8th, their 2nd hottest temperature ever measured
"

You are adding the "breaking" part. I read it for what is was, a record temperature at New Delhi, short of the all time record. I'm really not seeing where your disconnect is.
Quoting 31. MahFL:

How can 2nd warmest be record breaking ?


It broke the 3rd warmest
Flash flooding yesterday in College park M.D.Which is 5 miles outside of D.C
It's still raining in West Melbourne. Looked like at least an inch. Had a few really close cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Hmm...that GFS is sure a pesky one. Either it will bust alone or go out royally in fashion. And the whole convective feedback problem, I thought they fixed that with the GFS a few years ago when they did the updates, so it's seeing something in the atmosphere the other models aren't seeing.

Afternoon all. We had some spectacular thunderstorms over New Providence this morning, and the torrential rain in my area fell for more than 1 1/2 hours... Morning rush hour was not fun.... it was a pity I didn't have access to my camera at the time...
I guess American's have a different view of "records".
Quoting 22. palmbaywhoo:

1.5 inches in a little over an hour here in Palm Bay

Sounds about right.
Quoting 29. accu35:

is 12z running?

What GFS yes it is

12Z is interesting it stalls the system around the Yucatan channel then starts to move through the channel after that unknown rest of the runs not coming out
Haha wow few more came out it turns NE-ENE just S of W Cuba
Quoting Skyepony:
It's still raining in West Melbourne. Looked like at least an inch. Had a few really close cloud to ground lightning strikes.

Be Careful !

In the meantime, the rains have gone away from here, and won't be back for a while it seems.
Hot and windy again, last couple of days.

Well, the rain was nice while it lasted…...
Quoting 44. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hmm...that GFS is sure a pesky one. Either it will bust alone or go out royally in fashion. And the whole convective feedback problem, I thought they fixed that with the GFS a few years ago when they did the updates, so it's seeing something in the atmosphere the other models aren't seeing.


GFS is trash.I'm not believing anything that it's saying.It will probably be showing that same storm a month from now.
Quoting 44. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hmm...that GFS is sure a pesky one. Either it will bust alone or go out royally in fashion. And the whole convective feedback problem, I thought they fixed that with the GFS a few years ago when they did the updates, so it's seeing something in the atmosphere the other models aren't seeing.



The GFS still has a convective feedback problem for sure. It's not so much that it's seeing something the others aren't, it's that it's portraying things differently (much lower shear and more moisture). Somewhat of interest, the 12z NAVGEM, which from what I've seen actually hasn't been too bad this year, did pick up on something in much the same way the GFS has been doing. It shows it much weaker and sheared, but if something were to happen, which is still highly unlikely, this would be more reasonable-

What I'm able to gather is that this run it heads up towards Florida and then up the E coast
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:


Post 50.
With that set-up, we are going back into dry-season.
Not very nice.
LOL, yeah right GFS.

Quoting 56. MAweatherboy1:

LOL, yeah right GFS.


GFS needs to leave those bad drugs alone.It's not doing it any good.A hurricane running up the coast in June?.lol.Let me go to the home depot right away!.
GFS still having feedback errors. Keeps pushing it back 12-24hrs for over 1 week away. Been doing this for 3-4 weeks. Until the GFS has a developed system under 120hrs and has the Euro, don't bother getting excited.
While the GFS has been off on the storm prediction, it's been pretty consistent in predicting the storms we've been having in our area... not particularly connected with any tropical entity, but IMO implying there is plenty of moisture in the air.

Isn't this also a bit more instability than we've seen during June in the SW ATL over the last 3 seasons? I don't think we even got typical p.m. pop-ups the last couple of years....
Haven't really been paying attention to this but the SPC just greatly increased severe probabilities for tomorrow.




...SERN OK...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES.
Quoting 49. wunderkidcayman:

Haha wow few more came out it turns NE-ENE just S of W Cuba


There is nothing there...
Thank you Dr. Masters
Another ghost storm

It's fun to look at and speculate though, but like most have said on here anything after 7 days should be taken with a grain of salt. After 200 hrs. you start losing resolution. GFS hasn't moved up the time frame yet either, so it still remains to be seen what we'll be dealing with. At the very least it will start with increase rainfall in Central America.
Quoting 59. BahaHurican:

While the GFS has been off on the storm prediction, it's been pretty consistent in predicting the storms we've been having in our area... not particularly connected with any tropical entity, but IMO implying there is plenty of moisture in the air.

Isn't this also a bit more instability than we've seen during June in the SW ATL over the last 3 seasons? I don't think we even got typical p.m. pop-ups the last couple of years....



GFS is good in the short term 0-3 days..days 4-5 isn't bad . After day 5 it starts having issues, especially feedback problems.
Quoting Grothar:
Another ghost storm


Them's the best kind.
Ok full 12Z run is out

Ok it forms the system in decent timing moves slowly N bound then becomes stronger becoming a strong TS one might say a weak cat 1 and moves NE-ENE crosses Cuba passes E of Florida as a 984mb 70mph TS or 75mph Cat 1 continues up the US E Coast and getting stronger 980mb
Now from the system heads towards Cuba and after it's in la la land before that it's in reasonable time frame starting to reach in short term time frame not there yet late day 5 day 6 so getting there but not exactly there yet

Anyway what ever forms from a tropical wave or trof of low pressure to a TS or Cat 1 cane it will be a lot of rain for the W Caribbean later than that and anywhere else is too far out to even give it a grain of salt
Not showing much.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Haven't really been paying attention to this but the SPC just greatly increased severe probabilities for tomorrow.




...SERN OK...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES.


Yet they are still calling it a "Slight Risk" day.
With Cristina now a hurricane, and possibly on its way to Category 2 intensity, the HWRF continues to dominate the model world. It was the first to catch onto Amanda's rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane, predicting such several days in advance. It quickly brought Boris ashore as a weak tropical storm (along with the GFS) when other models differed. And it was the first to pick up Cristina as a hurricane (along with the ECMWF), doing so on June 5.

Whatever upgrade they gave it needs to be given to the GFS. ;)
Quoting 70. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With Cristina now a hurricane, and possibly on its way to Category 2 intensity, the HWRF continues to dominate the model world. It was the first to catch onto Amanda's rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane, predicting such several days in advance. It quickly brought Boris ashore as a weak tropical storm (along with the GFS) when other models differed. And it was the first to pick up Cristina as a hurricane (along with the ECMWF), doing so on June 5.

Whatever upgrade they gave it needs to be given to the GFS. ;)



Why are some of you talking to me like I'm saying that something is out there right now
There is nothing there right now but it might change late this weekend (Sunday) and next week

Anyway just wanted to put that out there

Interesting to note 12Z NAVGEM is also showing a system although much weaker and not much to it but this is a start
Maybe GFS wasn't that crazy after all
Maybe still a bit crazy
Quoting 68. Grothar:

Not showing much.



Yeah from like 2 days ago at 18Z
Read time stamp 2014060918
Or the 9th June 2014 at 1800Z
Quoting 68. Grothar:

Not showing much.


it better not rain this weekend as my prom is in that date. My classmates will probably cry lol if I tell them its going to rain.XD
Quoting 35. Naga5000:



How can the statement "Record heat scorching India and Nepal" be confused with "record breaking"? 2nd warmest is still a record, is it not?

Edit: To expand, the 2nd warmest would certainly be a daily record high for the location, even though it falls just short of an all-time high.


In Nepal, the 45.2°C (113.4°F) reading at Dipayal was the hottest temperature ever measured in the country so early in the year. The 100.2°F reading this week broke the record for hottest temperature ever measured in Germany so early in the year. Some of the India temperatures I quoted were also the hottest temperatures ever measured so early in the year at the individual locations, I believe.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 38. MahFL:



Dr. M never stated in the paragraph that any reading were actual records. 2nd highest is not record breaking. He also I guess did not specify in the heading if it was all time or daily records.

I think the issue here lies in a bit of a miscommunication.
Over a monthly period the average temperature may be 2nd warmest on record, but chances are to reach that value there were numerous daily records. So by saying "Record heat scorching India and Nepal," I would assume Dr. Masters is referring to individual heat waves where temperatures broke the daily records. Then, when averaged over the entire month, the value was 2nd warmest.

Perhaps a bit ambiguous and confusion, but not necessarily incorrect. It's all about the time scale and context.
And in the meantime, the power is out in New Delhi, India.
Caused by consumption overload, brought on by the current heat wave.

That's a very serious situation there.
Quoting 70. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With Cristina now a hurricane, and possibly on its way to Category 2 intensity, the HWRF continues to dominate the model world. It was the first to catch onto Amanda's rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane, predicting such several days in advance. It quickly brought Boris ashore as a weak tropical storm (along with the GFS) when other models differed. And it was the first to pick up Cristina as a hurricane (along with the ECMWF), doing so on June 5.

Whatever upgrade they gave it needs to be given to the GFS. ;)


It was only upgraded two days ago, so credit for Amanda and Boris goes to last year's version.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
2229Z MON JUN 09 2014

The HWRF model was upgraded as of the 18Z cycle to v8.0.4. This
upgrade includes increased vertical resolution, larger next
domains, a single Atlantic Ocean domain, an updated WRF core, an
updated Princeton Ocean Model, and updated GSI. This upgrade was
originally scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday 10 June 2014) but was
moved up to occur ahead of TD 3 formation in the Eastern Pacific.
Quoting 75. allancalderini:

it better not rain this weekend as my prom is in that date. My classmates will probably cry lol if I tell them its going to rain.XD

Good luck with that chances are it might
Off topic, but who's ready for the World Cup tomorrow?
Quoting 80. wunderkidcayman:


Good luck with that chances are it might
Lol right now is thundering but not heavy rain just some droplets.
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:

Why are some of you talking to me like I'm saying that something is out there right now
There is nothing there right now but it might change late this weekend (Sunday) and next week

Anyway just wanted to put that out there

Interesting to note 12Z NAVGEM is also showing a system although much weaker and not much to it but this is a start
Maybe GFS wasn't that crazy after all
Maybe still a bit crazy



you been saying it might be there next week... every day for weeks. When something does form in the next 3 months, are you going to say, "I told you guys", lol. Give it another 10 days at least. The migration in tropical formation should reach the Caribbean by the 20th-27th
12Z Euro is still showing nothing by day 6
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic, but who's ready for the World Cup tomorrow?

The WORLD is ready and waiting.
Well, everyone except the Brazilians, apparently…...
Quoting 43. Skyepony:

It's still raining in West Melbourne. Looked like at least an inch. Had a few really close cloud to ground lightning strikes.

I've gotten lots of rain here in Palm Bay. Speaking of lightning, a bolt actually hit my palm tree out front yesterday. It was neat to see through the window, but we were certainly thankful it didn't hit the house instead!
A head of the boundary, the S.W. flow is keeping all the T storms over on the Eastcoast.
Quoting 85. pottery:


The WORLD is ready and waiting.
Well, everyone except the Brazilians, apparently%u2026...


I'm Brazilian. I live in one of the host cities of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Well, here in Porto Alegre today we have a sunny day. Day that started cold with fog and 42F. Now its 03:51 PM and we have 77F, no wind.
The forecast is that tomorrow we'll have a warm day with unusually high temperatures that could strike 86F, when normal temperatures of June here is 64F with days that the maximum temperatures reaches 50F. This warm day just will happens because the jet stream is going to blowing harder coming from north of Brazil, especially from Amazon, and behind us we have a front cold coming from Argentina that will brings a stormy day between Argentina and Uruguay. Here in Porto Alegre the front will affect the our weather in Friday afternoon after a day with 78F and we could have storms with strong winds and thunders. In Saturday a high pressure will arrive here and temperature drops to 37F.
Quoting 67. wunderkidcayman:

Ok full 12Z run is out

Ok it forms the system in decent timing moves slowly N bound then becomes stronger becoming a strong TS one might say a weak cat 1 and moves NE-ENE crosses Cuba passes E of Florida as a 984mb 70mph TS or 75mph Cat 1 continues up the US E Coast and getting stronger 980mb
Now from the system heads towards Cuba and after it's in la la land before that it's in reasonable time frame starting to reach in short term time frame not there yet late day 5 day 6 so getting there but not exactly there yet

Anyway what ever forms from a tropical wave or trof of low pressure to a TS or Cat 1 cane it will be a lot of rain for the W Caribbean later than that and anywhere else is too far out to even give it a grain of salt



A few days ago you criticized someone for talking about where a storm would go saying let's get one formed first and yet you are doing the same.

Let's get something developed before talking track.
EP, 03, 2014061118, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1050W, 70, 986, HU
Quoting 74. wunderkidcayman:


Yeah from like 2 days ago at 18Z
Read time stamp 2014060918
Or the 9th June 2014 at 1800Z


That is the last run on this model. They probably figure nothing is going to form so they didn't update it.
Quoting 89. jrweatherman:




A few days ago you criticized someone for talking about where a storm would go saying let's get one formed first and yet you are doing the same.

Let's get something developed before talking track.


He only posts this stuff because he knows he'll get a negative reaction. It's the negative reaction that he thrives on.
Quoting 87. Sfloridacat5:

A head of the boundary, the S.W. flow is keeping all the T storms over on the Eastcoast.

Hmmm... Wondering if that convection over the gulf will stay together as it moves onshore the west coast.
Quoting 92. yonzabam:



He only posts this stuff because he knows he'll get a negative reaction. It's the negative reaction that he thrives on.


What are you talking about?? You haven't seen the storms in the northwest Caribbean yet????
Quoting pablosyn:


I'm Brazilian. I live in one of the host cities of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Well, here in Porto Alegre today we have a sunny day. Day that started cold with fog and 42�F. Now its 03:51 PM and we have 77�F, no wind.
The forecast is that tomorrow we'll have a warm day with unusually high temperatures that could strike 86�F, when normal temperatures of June here is 64�F with days that the maximum temperatures reaches 50�F. This warm day just will happens because the jet stream is going to blowing harder coming from north of Brazil, especially from Amazon, and behind us we have a front cold coming from Argentina that will brings a stormy day between Argentina and Uruguay. Here in Porto Alegre the front will affect the our weather in Friday afternoon after a day with 78�F and we could have storms with strong winds and thunders. In Saturday a high pressure will arrive here and temperature drops to 37�F.


Thank you for that.
Interesting weather for the players.

I hope that the World Cup games are a big success, and that Brasil do very well.


RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MARYLAND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM
UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAGERSTOWN
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF VA AND WV ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WHERE SHEAR AND VORTICITY ARE ENHANCED. IN ADDITION TO A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025.
first.rain.over.a.month....e.cen.fl.
Quoting 89. jrweatherman:




A few days ago you criticized someone for talking about where a storm would go saying let's get one formed first and yet you are doing the same.

Let's get something developed before talking track.

Well you see that's where your going wrong I'm not doing the same thing I'm only describing what the models are saying
I'm waiting for something to pop up in the area before I am talking about tracks

Quoting 92. yonzabam:



He only posts this stuff because he knows he'll get a negative reaction. It's the negative reaction that he thrives on.

Flagged
I do not post stuff to get any negative reactions at all
I hate all the negative reactions

May I remind people For the past few weeks I've only been describing what the models say
I have yet to reveal my personal opinions on the matter
wow. Look at the windshear in the Caribbean. Doesn't look like anything will form there for a long time.





P.S. Will someone please check the time and date for this map for me.
We are finally getting our daily June thunderstorms. Ton of rain and lightning. It looks like PB is getting its fair share

Quoting 99. Grothar:

wow. Look at the windshear in the Caribbean. Doesn't look like anything will form there for a long time.





P.S. Will someone please check the time and date for this map for me.

Time and date is well up to date

This does not mean shear could change
Plus between now and the time GFS predicts this thing to form its a lots of time for shear to drop
First named storm... somewhere in August. :-) June/July are quiet months don't forget that.
Quoting 101. wunderkidcayman:


Time and date is well up to date

This does not mean shear could change
Plus between now and the time GFS predicts this thing to form its a lots of time for shear to drop


I thought shear stayed the same all the time.
Quoting 95. pottery:



Thank you for that.
Interesting weather for the players.

I hope that the World Cup games are a big success, and that Brasil do very well.


thank you!!
ADT says Cristina is near Category 2 status.
ADT: 978 hPa 80 kt

If Cristina manages to not ingest anymore dry air for the next 36 hours, then she may be able to reach 90-95 knots before topping off and weakening. A brief run at major hurricane status may not be out of the question either. I think she may fall just short of that though. A very pretty eye manifesting in Cristina, nonetheless.
Quoting 83. scottsvb:




you been saying it might be there next week... every day for weeks. When something does form in the next 3 months, are you going to say, "I told you guys", lol. Give it another 10 days at least. The migration in tropical formation should reach the Caribbean by the 20th-27th

It'll be longer than that. The MJO is going to be out of our region probably at least until the end of June. I said a couple weeks ago that if we didn't get Atlantic development when we had our MJO enhanced chance recently, then we won't see anything this month. We almost had something with 90L when the MJO was with us but I stand by my prediction that since it's gone, we're on lockdown through the end of June, at least.

Quoting 78. pottery:

And in the meantime, the power is out in New Delhi, India.
Caused by consumption overload, brought on by the current heat wave.

That's a very serious situation there.


Try some of this for what is going on from the Indian news:-

Angry residents continue to riot as brutal heat bakes much of northern India, forcing government officials to cut electricity in some places as the power grid becomes strained beyond its capacity.

http://in.weather.com/story/news/heat-wave-breaks -records-causes-blackouts-and-riots-20140611

Link

The anger has persisted for nearly a week. Thousands of people stormed an electricity substation Friday near the state capital of Lucknow, ransacking offices and taking several workers hostage for 18 hours until police intervened Saturday morning, state utility official Narendra Nath Mullick said.

Weather Underground's Christopher Burt said New Delhi's Palam Airport hit 47C degrees on Sunday

I am so glad I am not there. The heat is bad enough but the humidity is another story on top of all this.
...Significant weather advisory for northeastern coastal Palm Beach County...central Metro Palm Beach County and east central inland Palm Beach County...

* until 400 PM EDT

* at 323 PM EDT...National Weather Service meteorologists detected a strong thunderstorm near Loxahatchee NWR...or near Boynton Beach... moving northeast at 25 mph.

Frequent to excessive lightning...gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph...up to nickel-sized hail...torrential downpours...or a combination of these are possible. Lightning is the number one weather related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches...and blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the storm passes.

* The storm will affect... West Palm Beach...Boynton Beach...Delray Beach...Wellington...Palm Beach Gardens...Lake Worth...Riviera Beach...Palm Beach...Ocean Ridge...Greenacres...Royal Palm Beach...Palm Springs...North Palm Beach...Lantana...Lake Park...Atlantis...Haverhill...Cloud Lake... Golden Lakes and dunes Road.
Cristina has handily beaten my expectations for her. I figured dry air entrainment would hold her to a minimal Cat 1 peak at best, and while she has struggled with the dry air somewhat it looks like she's heading for a solid Cat 2 peak. Probably would have been much higher if not for the dry air issues.

Quoting 105. pablosyn:



thank you!!


I hope Brasil comes in second! Behind the USA. :p

Estive em Portugal, a lingua muito diferente?
112. silas
Quoting TylerStanfield:
ADT says Cristina is near Category 2 status.
ADT: 978 hPa 80 kt

If Cristina manages to not ingest anymore dry air for the next 36 hours, then she may be able to reach 90-95 knots before topping off and weakening. A brief run at major hurricane status may not be out of the question either if Cristina manages to not ingest any mid level dry air, like she has done throughout her lifetime.


I agree. Cristina's core is looking much better this afternoon than it did this morning. It looks like she has wrapped convection around almost her entire eye. If she can continue to keep the dry air out, which looks possible with the convection around her eye building, then I would say she has a very good chance to at least briefly flirt with major hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours.

Quick question from a newbie to posting, how do I post pictures if I'm using the classic site?
Quoting PlazaRed:


Try some of this for what is going on from the Indian news:-

Angry residents continue to riot as brutal heat bakes much of northern India, forcing government officials to cut electricity in some places as the power grid becomes strained beyond its capacity.

http://in.weather.com/story/news/heat-wave-breaks -records-causes-blackouts-and-riots-20140611

Link

The anger has persisted for nearly a week. Thousands of people stormed an electricity substation Friday near the state capital of Lucknow, ransacking offices and taking several workers hostage for 18 hours until police intervened Saturday morning, state utility official Narendra Nath Mullick said.

Weather Underground's Christopher Burt said New Delhi's Palam Airport hit 47C degrees on Sunday

I am so glad I am not there. The heat is bad enough but the humidity is another story on top of all this.

Yeah, bad stuff there Plaza.
I expect we shall see more of these kinds of events, and nasty social responses to them, over the coming years.

For the past few weeks I've only been describing what the models say
I have yet to reveal my personal opinions on the matter


Wrong! You were 100% adamant that a storm was going to form in the NW Caribbean.
The heat has returned today. We haven't quite had an 100 degree day yet, but I'm sure it will come soon.
The forecast says mid 90's for the majority of the next seven days, with some upper 80's this weekend. Still can't complain about the heat quite yet, considering there have been much worse beginnings to Summer than this year. This year, by far, is one of the mildest (Temperature-wise) that I've experienced.
Quoting 107. MAweatherboy1:


It'll be longer than that. The MJO is going to be out of our region probably at least until the end of June. I said a couple weeks ago that if we didn't get Atlantic development when we had our MJO enhanced chance recently, then we won't see anything this month. We almost had something with 90L when the MJO was with us but I stand by my prediction that since it's gone, we're on lockdown through the end of June, at least.


Funny thing is we had the MJO in our region a lot last season and systems failed to materialize. There is still 19 days left in this month for something to fester. I don't go strictly by the MJO forecast as a basis for development, there is a lot more factors that determine that. We can still get systems develop off of trough splits in the North Atlantic as well even in a downward phase.
Quoting 101. wunderkidcayman:


Time and date is well up to date

This does not mean shear could change
Plus between now and the time GFS predicts this thing to form its a lots of time for shear to drop
GFS predicts a storm in a time where the MJO will be out of our basin on the Wpac.
The Smoke Monster caught on video

You can read all about it here.
Quoting 112. silas:



I agree. Cristina's core is looking much better this afternoon than it did this morning. It looks like she has wrapped convection around almost her entire eye. If she can continue to keep the dry air out, which looks possible with the convection around her eye building, then I would say she has a very good chance to at least briefly flirt with major hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours.

Quick question from a newbie to posting, how do I post pictures if I'm using the classic site?

I'm using the new site, but If I remember correctly, you copy the image HTML and then select the 'Image' link. That should bring up a separate window for you to paste the image HTML and then you click 'ok'. Then the image should show up in your comment box as a code. This will translate into a picture once you post the comment. I would suggest, while you get the hang of posting pictures, to click 'preview comment' first to make sure that you did it correctly.
Quoting 116. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Funny thing is we had the MJO in our region a lot last season and systems failed to materialize. There is still 19 days left in this month for something to fester. I don't go strictly by the MJO forecast as a basis for development, there is a lot more factors that determine that. We can still get systems develop off of trough splits in the North Atlantic as well even in a downward phase.

Agree on the trough splits, those are always a possibility at any point in the season. If we do get development, that's probably how it would happen. I think the MJO is a huge factor this year though, more than in other years. Why? El Nino. Shear is already high, and it will be that way all season, although of course there will be occasional let-ups that allow for development chances. In June and July though, the odds of seeing a system of purely tropical origin develop in an El Nino year in the downward phase of the MJO are very low. It's not impossible I guess, but that's about as high as you can stack the odds against development.
Tropical storm forming soon in Caribbean maybe next week!!
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Funny thing is we had the MJO in our region a lot last season and systems failed to materialize. There is still 19 days left in this month for something to fester. I don't go strictly by the MJO forecast as a basis for development, there is a lot more factors that determine that. We can still get systems develop off of trough splits in the North Atlantic as well even in a downward phase.

Boy is that worth repeating.
:p ohhh TWC.

Forecaster: Here's Cristina, the first hurricane of either basin this season.

Poor Andrea :p already getting forgotten
img src="">
Orion comes together at KSC.

The Orion crew module for Exploration Flight Test-1 is shown in the Final Assembly and System Testing (FAST) Cell, positioned over the service module just prior to mating the two sections together. The FAST cell is where the integrated crew and service modules are put through their final system tests prior to rolling out of the Operations and Checkout Building at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Technicians are in position to assist with the final alignment steps once the crew module is nearly in contact with the service module. In December, Orion will launch 3,600 miles into space in a four-hour flight to test the systems that will be critical for survival in future human missions to deep space.

Image Credit: NASA/Rad Sinyak


Yea...
Quoting 125. Camille33:

img src="">

Good video!!
Quoting 127. Climate175:

Yea...

I am watching this closely!
When posting a Youtube EMBED one can bypass the image button and post the embed directly into the comment box. then post.
Quoting 124. Doppler22:

:p ohhh TWC.

Forecaster: Here's Cristina, the first hurricane of either basin this season.

Poor Amanda* :p already getting forgotten

I was literally about to comment about that. *Facepalm*
I've been watching TWC for the past hour, I don't know why I even waste my time watching...
(LOL they're struggling)
He just corrected himself, after saying that Cristina was the season's first hurricane for the third time.
Quoting 129. Camille33:


I am watching this closely!



Unlike two happen and it's 288 hrs out
Anyone interested in learning about the current MJO check out Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions which was prepared on June 9, 2014.
Quoting 129. Camille33:


I am watching this closely!
We will see. A strong tropical storm or hurricane up the east coast but still far out.
Looks to be exactly on time wow.
Quoting 120. MAweatherboy1:


Agree on the trough splits, those are always a possibility at any point in the season. If we do get development, that's probably how it would happen. I think the MJO is a huge factor this year though, more than in other years. Why? El Nino. Shear is already high, and it will be that way all season, although of course there will be occasional let-ups that allow for development chances. In June and July though, the odds of seeing a system of purely tropical origin develop in an El Nino year in the downward phase of the MJO are very low. It's not impossible I guess, but that's about as high as you can stack the odds against development.

The Atlantic essentially depends on the MJO during the early months. Especially with vertical instability in the tropics the way it is...

Quoting from the CPC pdf on MJO linked above:

Based on recent observations and the high spread in dynamical model forecasts, the
MJO is forecast to remain weak and is expected to only be a minor contributor to the
pattern of anomalous tropical convection.

The MJO may contribute to enhanced rainfall across southern Asia to the South China Sea and elevated odds for tropical cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea early in the period.
Wow! Quite a fast storm moved through.... Street lights came on....I'm sure SAR had worse , but that's ok
The CPC also reports:

"There is large spread in dynamical model forecasts, some indicating an increase in amplitude of the MJO followed by rapid weakening. Some models show a bit more eastward propagation of an MJO like signal. Any subseasonal signal will have difficulty organizing given the background conditions evolving towards El Nino."

This comment from the CPC is interesting given Ventrice's remarks saying MJO could precipitate the formation of el nino.

Edit: I'm so confused!
I swear the CPC must read this blog and is just trying to confuse us!
Quoting allancalderini:
it better not rain this weekend as my prom is in that date. My classmates will probably cry lol if I tell them its going to rain.XD


Not as much as if they are surprised.
142. Ed22
Quoting 106. TylerStanfield:

ADT says Cristina is near Category 2 status.
ADT: 978 hPa 80 kt

If Cristina manages to not ingest anymore dry air for the next 36 hours, then she may be able to reach 90-95 knots before topping off and weakening. A brief run at major hurricane status may not be out of the question either. I think she may fall just short of that though. A very pretty eye manifesting in Cristina, nonetheless.

Right now hurricane Cristina is strengthening we will see it soon category two winds of 100 mph or more.
Quoting Grothar:
We are finally getting our daily June thunderstorms. Ton of rain and lightning. It looks like PB is getting its fair share



Today there is a S.W. flow across Southern Florida. That's keeping all the storms over on the Eastcoast.
That's not our normal "wet season" pattern. It's more of a pre-frontal pattern.

If this was a normal "wet season" day, the S.W. coast would be exploding with storms in the late afternoon.
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

An intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and
microwave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates
have steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass
indicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east
and that it was completely detached from any convective bands,
suggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the
T4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating.
Therefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt.

Cristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The
model guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward
through tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning
on Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a
weakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone
gradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters
unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered
by the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of
high pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge
significantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have
nudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the
previous NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is
similar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the
consensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member.

Intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to
interrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the
next 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over
near 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those
conditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during
that time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic
conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which
should combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours
and beyond.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
North Florida is dry north of the boundary.
Boundary is pushing into Central Fl. with heavy storms.
South Florida - storms are being pushed to the Eastcoast by the S.W. flow.
S.W. coast is clear with no storms.

back to a Miami/south florida hit again.........way out there though.......................
Quoting 124. Doppler22:

:p ohhh TWC.

Forecaster: Here's Cristina, the first hurricane of either basin this season.

Poor Andrea :p already getting forgotten


Amanda lol
Lots of Severe T Storm Warnings along the Eastcoast.
Speaking of the MJO, it looks like the Eastern Pacific is in need of it...

We are in a Meridional Jetstream.
Quoting 145. Sfloridacat5:

North Florida is dry north of the boundary.
Boundary is pushing into Central Fl. with heavy storms.
South Florida - storms are being pushed to the Eastcoast by the S.W. flow.
S.W. coast is clear with no storms.




Eastern gulf water temps are obviously plenty warm enough to support a tropical system now. This is normally the convective min over the coastal waters, but much warmer gulf water temps are supporting higher instability now. These cells are thanks to deep moisture being lifted by speed convergence from the strong SW flow over the warm water.

Surface CAPE between 2000 and 4000 over eastern gulf:



154. flsky
So...where is this?
Amanda is a beautiful high end cat 1 with an eye and cold convection... I want a storm like Amanda!
But dust is what I got instead ://

Quoting 131. TylerStanfield:


I was literally about to comment about that. Like, don't you think they should have someone covering the hurricane that actually knows something besides basic meteorology?
I've been watching TWC for the past hour, I don't know why I even waste my time watching...
(LOL they're struggling)
He just corrected himself, after saying that Cristina was the season's first hurricane for the third time.


It could be worse. He could call his second wife by his first wife's name.
Quoting 143. Sfloridacat5:



Today there is a S.W. flow across Southern Florida. That's keeping all the storms over on the Eastcoast.
That's not our normal "wet season" pattern. It's more of a pre-frontal pattern.

If this was a normal "wet season" day, the S.W. coast would be exploding with storms in the late afternoon.


On the east coast, our big storms start to our west and move east. You could always see the clouds building in the afternoon. Then it switches and they begin to come from the North or South. We don't get as much rain on the immediate coast. The sea breeze must keep them from getting here.
Looking better.
I don't know why, but Cristina reminds me the Typhoon Sinlaku in 2008. Look that:

Sinlaku:




Cristina:

Quoting 155. CaribBoy:

Amanda is a beautiful high end cat 1 with an eye and cold convection... I want a storm like Amanda!


You meant Cristina right?
High of 69 today in S C IL as low moved to our NE last night/today. Mainly overcast today, 2" of rain over previous 2 days as low sat to our SW. StL area had some flash floods as it began to move yesterday. Currently 68 w/ 68 dew pt, 4-6 mph W wind, 13 gust, 29.8", looks to clear soon. Chance of storms tomorrow before clears for upper 70s, low 80s weekend, then temps, humidity builds. Corn and beans look good so far.
Quoting 118. bappit:

The Smoke Monster caught on video

You can read all about it here.


Same one from Lost?
Quoting 154. flsky:

So...where is this?

It's in D.C/D.C area.
We're getting hammered by summer thunderstorms over and over this week. Fun stuff.
Quoting Grothar:


It could be worse. He could call his second wife by his first wife's name.

I did that once.

But just once. :-)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Wow! Quite a fast storm moved through.... Street lights came on....I'm sure SAR had worse , but that's ok

We have had nothing but clouds, heat, and humidity. High was 91 after an overnight low of 73. 85 now with a dewpoint of 72. I get all sweaty just going to get the mail.
Quoting 157. Grothar:



It could be worse. He could call his second wife by his first wife's name.

The real problem would start if he called his first wife by the name of his second wife to be!
Quoting 161. Tropicsweatherpr:



You meant Cristina right?


Lol I must be very tired, yes Cristina not Amanda :-)
Pretty intense round of storms just came through, 60-70mph winds, hail, lightning strikes and at least 3-4" of rain.
(Pennsylvania)

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY...

AT 553 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED A REPORT OF A TORNADO
ON THE GROUND.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE GORDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED AT 548 PM EDT BY A CITIZEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE GORDON AND HYNDMAN.

LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
(Kansas)

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL WICHITA AND
EAST CENTRAL GREELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT/515 PM CDT/...

AT 356 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
SELKIRK...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN GREELEY AND WESTERN WICHITA COUNTIES.
Decent couplet on Michigan warned storm as well.
174. wxmod
Into oblivion.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
23:30 PM IST June 11 2014
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nanauk over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly west northwestwards with a speed about 4 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered near 17.5N 65.8, about 760 km west southwest of Mumbai, 610 km southwest of Veraval and 800 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would intensify further during next 24 hours. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between 14.0N to 19.0N and 57.0E to 67.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center. Estimated central pressure of the cyclone storm is 988 hpa.

The sea surface temperature over the region is about 29-31C. The ocean thermal energy is about 80-120 kj/cm2. Although the vertical wind shear is between 20–30 knots around the system. The system would intensify due to favorable sea surface temperatures, low level vorticity and upper level divergence. It would move west northwestwards under the influence of the subtropical upper tropospheric ridge near 25.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Gulf of Iran and adjoining northwest Arabian Sea. But there is a possibility of entrainment of dry air as the system approaches Oman coast leading to slight weakening of the system before landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 17.7N 65.4E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 18.4N 64.4E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 19.2N 62.5E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 19.8N 60.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MITAG (T1406)
3:00 AM JST June 12 2014
===========================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone Northeast Of Minami Daito

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Mitag (994 hPa) located at 27.2N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 25 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: "SUBTROPICAL" T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS 35.0N 145.1E - Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan
18z has begun to run.
Quoting 173. Doppler22:

Decent couplet on Michigan warned storm as well.

For a day that had a near-zero tornado threat, it sure does look good.
Quoting 174. wxmod:

Into oblivion.



Putting that picture up to 200% and assuming its from the camera near the north pole, then it looks like there is a lot of water in the background.
Maybe something else as I am no expert but its not the colour of ice.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
609 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 608 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR
BUFFALO MILLS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAINSBURG.
john.barlow.posted...look for incredible you tubes coming out of s brazil flood of the century
Quoting 170. CybrTeddy:

Pretty intense round of storms just came through, 60-70mph winds, hail, lightning strikes and at least 3-4" of rain.


Partly cloudy and desperately dusty here.
One more round to go in West Palm/Lake Worth...

156 hrs.
165 hrs.
186. silas
Quoting TylerStanfield:

I'm using the new site, but If I remember correctly, you copy the image HTML and then select the 'Image' link. That should bring up a separate window for you to paste the image HTML and then you click 'ok'. Then the image should show up in your comment box as a code. This will translate into a picture once you post the comment. I would suggest, while you get the hang of posting pictures, to click 'preview comment' first to make sure that you did it correctly.


Thank you!
If only climate change could make my area 10 times wetter than it is :-)
Let's see if Cristina can continue to warm its eye without any dry air disrupting the process. Once that happens, the hurricane should be able to reach Category 2 status. It still has another 24 hours or so to intensify.

A pretty intense line of blue skies came thru Sooo Cal today! Again, Again and Again! The blue skies were very intense!
Quoting 188. Climate175:


Ya'll see that Florida?.You better hurry up and get your ply wood ready!!!.
It is pouring here in Southern St Pete and since I am home, I am loving this weather lol

I see the GFS has moved back to focusing on Florida and the Eastern Gulf for a few runs, I think development is looking more likely now in the next week, but track is still very much up in the air
Wet trop wave crossing the E Caribbean and NE Caribbean in the **very reliable** GFS long range lol.
Quoting 193. CaribBoy:

Wet trop wave crossing the E Caribbean and NE Caribbean in the **very reliable** GFS long range lol.

Photo of potential tornado minutes ago in Bedford County - taken near Lake Gordon via Jordan Anderson/WJAC. #pawx
@PSUWeather
196. FOREX
Quoting 191. washingtonian115:

Ya'll see that Florida?.You better hurry up and get your ply wood ready!!!.


Waiting for the EURO model to pick up on it. Until then, no plywood.lol
I see some are back to following the GFS out to 300+ hours, complete with track and intensity. I thought it might be interesting to look at actual GFS verification from May 10 to June 8 of 2014. These verifications are based on the 500 mb forecast runs.

This is the GFS at 72 hours (3 days). It did very well at predicting what the weather would be three days out.



Now let's look at 120 hours (5 days) out. Still above 80% but a 10% decrease in accuracy from the 3 day run.



Now at 144 hours (6 days) out. Above 70% but a steeper drop in accuracy from the 5 day.



What about 182 hours (8 days) out. Whoa! Accuracy is now about 50%, not much different than flipping a coin.



Next, lets look at 240 hours (10 days) out. Accuracy is now around 30%, so there's only about 3 chances out of 10 that anything shown by the GFS at 10 days is going to come true.



Look at all the graphs and notice the large drop off in verification since June 1. At 10 days, the verification actually went negative at times. This mean that the not only did none of the systems the GFS predicted actually happen but some systems the GFS never predicted did happen. Something appears to have gone haywire with the GFS since June 1. There are people here who are a lot more expert than I that might be able to explain this apparent decrease in accuracy, but I can't. I only report what I see.

You can see the GFS (and other model) verification at the NCEP/EMC Experimental Verification site. When someone says what they think might happen based on a 240+ hour GFS model run, at least understand that the chances of that happening are so low that the NCEP/EMC statisticians don't even bother to calculate the numbers past 240 hours.
Quoting 192. Hurricanes101:

It is pouring here in Southern St Pete and since I am home, I am loving this weather lol

I see the GFS has moved back to focusing on Florida and the Eastern Gulf for a few runs, I think development is looking more likely now in the next week, but track is still very much up in the air


2" here (finally) today and we are getting one last shower coming through. I am loving this weather too. Wish we could get rain every day. That potential system is getting closer to being within a plausible range. Once it's 5 days out, I'll pay attention.
We just surpassed 100 reports of #severe weather nationwide today – the 9th straight day of 100+ reports.
@TWCBreaking


Not bad, not bad :p
Quoting 196. FOREX:



Waiting for the EURO model to pick up on it. Until then, no plywood.lol
I was being sarcastic in my post because more than likely it's not going to happen :)
Retarded wu is not allowing me to successfully put up the radar.Storms are approaching from the south.
Quoting 191. washingtonian115:

Ya'll see that Florida?.You better hurry up and get your ply wood ready!!!.


I'm using old Fresca cans to save money this year.



7:34pm – western PA. RT Crazy storm in Indiana, PA




NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
205. FOREX
Quoting 204. hurricanes2018:





NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!


You have been fined the maximum $2500.00 for posting a long range graphic.lol.
One more thing for those who are constantly talking about how the GFS is the best model around. This is actual verification of the models since 1996. The CDAS is a "frozen" model that was never updated since (I believe) 2006, so it serves as a baseline of how much models in general have improved. The FNO is the Fleet Numerical Model, commonly known as the Navy Model, which is generally not a good performer. The CMC is the Canadian Meteorological Center model, sometimes called the CMC/GEM. UKM is the UKMET, and the ECM is the ECMWF, or Euro. The Euro has won handily as the most accurate model with the UKMET second. The much maligned CMC is actually neck and neck with the GFS, although both trail the two top models significantly. The GFS performance for 2014 is not included in this graph. The accuracy verification for the GFS certainly would not have improved for 2014, so the relative position of the GFS on the graph could only have gotten worse.


Link

When you read some posters saying that they want to wait to see what the Euro or UKMET has to say about a possible storm, there's a good reason. Relying on any one model is never a good idea, since they all have their inaccuracies and biases, but relying on the GFS alone is really a bad idea when attempting to make a forecast.
Short very late night hello from Germany which was hit hard by scorching temps and very damaging thunderstorms in some places (but not mine). Looking at the news from India I'm really glad that I wasn't born there ;-) Good night from fortunately cooled down Germany!

Intense heat bakes India as monsoon approaches
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 4:37 p.m. EDT June 11, 2014
One part of New Delhi hit 118 degrees today, the seventh straight day of temperatures above 110 degrees. One spot, Satna, hit 119 degrees, the Indian Meteorological Department reported. These temperatures are about 9 degrees above average.
Protests broke out because of blackouts earlier this week in New Delhi, Al Jazeera reported, as frustration mounted over power cuts. Riots were also reported last weekend in Uttar Pradesh.
"There has been a rise in the number of deaths among Delhi's homeless in this heatwave," said Sunil Kumar Aledia, a convenor of the Centre For Holistic Development, told Agence France-Presse.
Slate reported that Hindu priests in Mumbai performed special prayers for rain in order to relieve the sweltering country of its misery.
Today in Calcutta, closer to the more humid coast, the city hit 100 degrees with a dew point of 82 degrees, giving a heat index of 126 degrees. Dew points are the best measurement of how humid it feels. Anything over 70 is considered uncomfortable.
The double-edged sword of the summer monsoon is slowly approaching and should reach central and northern India next week, the Indian Meteorological Department predicts. While rains from the monsoon reduce temperatures, they can also lead to deadly and devastating flooding. Last year, hundreds died in monsoon floods.
A monsoon is not actually a rainstorm but instead a seasonal shift in wind direction that also brings rain. This year's monsoon is forecast to be on the weak side, bringing less rain than usual, because of the developing El Nino.
El Nino, a climate pattern defined as warmer-than-average temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, affects weather patterns around the world.




Indian media: Power crisis amid heat wave
BBC, 11 June 2014 Last updated at 05:58 GMT


Current temperature anomalies world wide.
Getting a tropical downpour right now. Some of these low, mushy clouds have materialized enough.
209. FOREX
Quoting 208. opal92nwf:

Getting a tropical downpour right now. Some of these low, mushy clouds have materialized enough.



Send some to me in PC beach. All that rain on radar last night and we got nothing.
So if anything is going to happen in the Atlantic in the near future, looking like maybe a late June Gulf storm?
212. beell
Quoting 189. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Let's see if Cristina can continue to warm its eye without any dry air disrupting the process. Once that happens, the hurricane should be able to reach Category 2 status. It still has another 24 hours or so to intensify.




Best it has ever looked right now. For the past two days, dry-air entrainment has continually sliced off the feeder bands almost every time they tried to wrap. Leaving convective orphans behind to the east. The nightime-vis sat view below is from yesterday but may serve as an example.

No sign of that now. No sign of intrusion as far as I can tell.


06/10 09Z
Official El Nino or not, the Atlantic is certainly experiencing wind shear characteristic of an El Nino event, with a very amplified subtropical jet cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central/East Atlantic. Upper-level winds are comparatively lower off the East Coast.

This should be the mean pattern throughout this year.

Quoting 195. Doppler22:


Photo of potential tornado minutes ago in Bedford County - taken near Lake Gordon via Jordan Anderson/WJAC. #pawx
@PSUWeather

Very difficult to say for sure...
As Brazil Hurries World Cup Preparations, Country's Climate Changing Just As Fast
Climate Central | By Brian Kahn, Posted: 06/11/2014 4:13 pm EDT Updated: 3 hours ago
When the Brazil and Croatia national sides kick off the World Cup on Thursday, the players on the field won't be the only new things since the last time Brazil hosted the World Cup in 1950. Cleats, the stadiums and even the humble soccer ball itself have changed. But even more important than soccer equipment, average temperatures in Brazil for June and July, when the tournament is played, have also changed. And that change has trended upward, just as it has worldwide. ...

Data from CRU 3.1 dataset showing the change in June-July average temperature anomalies in Brazil for 1950-2009.



Published 11.06.2014
Murky brown flood water charged over Iguazu Falls, a tourist spot shared by Brazil and Argentina, on Monday (June 9). Heavy rainfall caused the Parana, the river feeding into the fall to overflow.
Walkways and viewpoints at the UNESCO National Heritage site were almost completley submerged under water, prompting authorities to close the normally bustling tourist hotspot.
Not only did the flooding leave potential visitors to the falls in the lurch, but it also took a casino riverboat for a spin.
The 90 metre (295 feet) boat, which is in the process of being converted into a floating casino, was set adrift on the Iguazu and Parana rivers before being rescued by the coastguard.
Torrential rains pummeled the region over the weekend, causing the water surge.
Quoting 204. hurricanes2018:





NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!


Its really becoming a joke what the GFS has been putting out this year. I mean come on already even worse than the CMC, the model that cried HURRICANE!!!!!
Quoting 206. sar2401:

One more thing for those who are constantly talking about how the GFS is the best model around. This is actual verification of the models since 1996. The CDAS is a "frozen" model that was never updated since (I believe) 2006, so it serves as a baseline of how much models in general have improved. The FNO is the Fleet Numerical Model, commonly known as the Navy Model, which is generally not a good performer. The CMC is the Canadian Meteorological Center model, sometimes called the CMC/GEM. UKM is the UKMET, and the ECM is the ECMWF, or Euro. The Euro has won handily as the most accurate model with the UKMET second. The much maligned CMC is actually neck and neck with the GFS, although both trail the two top models significantly. The GFS performance for 2014 is not included in this graph. The accuracy verification for the GFS certainly would not have improved for 2014, so the relative position of the GFS on the graph could only have gotten worse.


Link

When you read some posters saying that they want to wait to see what the Euro or UKMET has to say about a possible storm, there's a good reason. Relying on any one model is never a good idea, since they all have their inaccuracies and biases, but relying on the GFS alone is really a bad idea when attempting to make a forecast.


Bingo. USA and Europeans has been having a spending war with each other to develops a better forecasting supercomputer (and therefore, better computer model) for a while now, but we had fallen behind. I keep telling people that we're no longer the best at forecasting general weather on this planet and that Europeans got edge over us.

EDIT: Excuse my attempt at grammar...
If we see name storms this year it will likey be in Aug and that will be a vary short window from Aug two September is when will have are best ch of seeing name storms so don't look for any thing in tell then if at all
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC MITAG (T1406)
9:00 AM JST June 12 2014
===========================

Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Mitag (994 hPa) located at 30.0N 135.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The extratropical low is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory on Mitag from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
For 18Z GFS starting to trend for a Florida system
Timing still generally kept still shows disturbance starting up late weekend (Sunday) and low forms early next week
So far it's has kept timing for about 3 days or so that's another trend

And 18Z NAVGEM starting to trend on W Carib system although weaker than the GFS
18Z run shows the system stronger than it did on 12Z run

I'm wondering if it's going to be one of those years where we have a potent A, B, or C storm.
Quoting 220. HadesGodWyvern:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC MITAG (T1406)
9:00 AM JST June 12 2014
===========================


Current Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability of the western north pacific:




Always quite a difference compared with the Atlantic, lol.

But now I'm really out. Good night!
Quoting 194. Gearsts:





225. FOREX
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:

For 18Z GFS starting to trend for a Florida system
Timing still generally kept still shows disturbance starting up late weekend (Sunday) and low forms early next week
So far it's has kept timing for about 3 days or so that's another trend

And 18Z NAVGEM starting to trend on W Carib system although weaker than the GFS
18Z run shows the system stronger than it did on 12Z run




We'll have to see if shear relaxes early next week. That will be the defining point I believe.
Quoting 206. sar2401:

One more thing for those who are constantly talking about how the GFS is the best model around. This is actual verification of the models since 1996. The CDAS is a "frozen" model that was never updated since (I believe) 2006, so it serves as a baseline of how much models in general have improved. The FNO is the Fleet Numerical Model, commonly known as the Navy Model, which is generally not a good performer. The CMC is the Canadian Meteorological Center model, sometimes called the CMC/GEM. UKM is the UKMET, and the ECM is the ECMWF, or Euro. The Euro has won handily as the most accurate model with the UKMET second. The much maligned CMC is actually neck and neck with the GFS, although both trail the two top models significantly. The GFS performance for 2014 is not included in this graph. The accuracy verification for the GFS certainly would not have improved for 2014, so the relative position of the GFS on the graph could only have gotten worse.


Link

When you read some posters saying that they want to wait to see what the Euro or UKMET has to say about a possible storm, there's a good reason. Relying on any one model is never a good idea, since they all have their inaccuracies and biases, but relying on the GFS alone is really a bad idea when attempting to make a forecast.
Yep..The GFS has had a tough time lately. Not exactly sure why, but most people here know when all the models show a system, there is a good chance somethings brewing.
Quoting 224. CaribBoy:






By the looks of it this run shows some rain for ya

Quoting 225. FOREX:



We'll have to see if shear relaxes early next week. That will be the defining point I believe.

Yep and I do think the shear may relax next week
But yes that would certainly be the defining point
Quoting 219. Tazmanian:

If we see name storms this year it will likey be in Aug and that will be a vary short window from Aug two September is when will have are best ch of seeing name storms so don't look for any thing in tell then if at all

Wouldn't be surprised, but I wouldn't be surprised either to see an early storm like Agnes or Audrey (not necessarily that strong though).
Nanauk of the South vs Nanook of the North. Which is more interesting?

Nanauk of the South:



Nanook of the North:

EP, 03, 2014061200, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1054W, 75, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 50, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CRISTINA, D,

75kt may be conservative.

Circle is possible sometime this weekend.
18Z at day 8
235. FOREX
Quoting 233. Climate175:

Circle is possible sometime this weekend.


As much as I would love a circle, the shear is too strong through the weekend according to the EURO. We can hope though.
Grothar, If you need any help within the next 380 hours to prepare for the impending onslaught, please let me know.
And they called it, Circle Love...

Quoting 236. GeoffreyWPB:

Grothar, If you need any help within the next 380 hours to prepare for the impending onslaught, please let me know.


It takes me about 280 hours just to shop now. Please keep some Cadbury bars for me just in case.
Ensembles like the Florida then up the east coast solution.
Quoting 226. hydrus:

Yep..The GFS has had a tough time lately. Not exactly sure why, but most people here know when all the models show a system, there is a good chance somethings brewing.


Even since I started to track storms on GFS few years ago, I noticed GFS got ridiculous bias for developing too many storms in months of June and July, especially in western Caribbeans. It's a little better if they pop up a storm in Cape Verde region, but even it is to not be trusted in that area during the first two months of the season. This is exactly why I keep telling people that I don't pay attention to models during this time of the year until we actually get a storm.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
2:30 AM IST June 12 2014
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm Nanauk over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly westwards with a speed about 3 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered near 17.5N 65.7E, about 770km west southwest of Mumbai, 620 km southwest of Veraval and 800 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would intensify further during next 24 hours. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between latitude 12.5N to 19.5N 58.0E to 67.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -87C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.
Quoting beell:


Best it has ever looked right now. For the past two days, dry-air entrainment has continually sliced off the feeder bands almost every time they tried to wrap. Leaving convective orphans behind to the east. The nightime-vis sat view below is from yesterday but may serve as an example.

No sign of that now. No sign of intrusion as far as I can tell.


06/10 09Z


Hey beell.

I'd have to agree. Doesn't look bad at all.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imag ery/rbtop-animated.gif

2nd major soon? Pretty nice burst currently. Perhaps a bit of dry air to the north, but it doesn't seem to be making a huge impact atm.
Quoting 213. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Official El Nino or not, the Atlantic is certainly experiencing wind shear characteristic of an El Nino event, with a very amplified subtropical jet cutting through the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Central/East Atlantic. Upper-level winds are comparatively lower off the East Coast.

This should be the mean pattern throughout this year.


Shear in the Epac is low which is another character of El Niño, I just hope we can reach Isaias this year.
Quoting 239. Climate175:

Ensembles like the Florida then up the east coast solution.

Well that's something

Anyway I think it could be possible that we could see a circle pop up on the map this weekend and early next week
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
18Z at day 8

You can't post anything directly from Weatherbell. All the images there are protected from direct links. You have to copy the picture then post it to a sharing service like Photobucket, or you can use the hosting service here at WU. You can then link to the image and post it.
Quoting 242. GeoffreyWPB:

Meanwhile, in breaking astrological news...

Cameron Read: Man accused of shooting at the moon, gets arrested

LOLx1000
Raw T# from UW-CIMSS ADT shooting up to T5.7/107.2kt, with Adjusted T# at T5.0/90kt and the Final T# at T4.5/77kt for the time being.

2014JUN12 011500 4.5 979.3 77.0 4.5 5.0 5.7 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -32.46 -66.98 EYE -99 IR 13.5 15.93 105.56 SPRL GOES13 39.6

Certainly a rise in the ITCZ soon.
I don't think I have ever seen the Caribbean so quiet this time of year.




Quoting 242. GeoffreyWPB:

Meanwhile, in breaking astrological news...

Cameron Read: Man accused of shooting at the moon, gets arrested


Duh!. Where do you think all those holes came from?
WOW. Just witnessed the most AMAZING sunset over the Gulf over on Clearwater Beach a little while ago. OMG. Spent a day at the beach tanning, swimming, and grilling. A great day. Hope everyone had a good Wednesday. Pretty quiet around much of the CONUS. My big sister Natalie had some nice rains in Southern Illinois the last couple weeks. She is SUPER EXCITED!! And she told me she misses all of you and to say HI!!! :)

Have a good night everyone!

Alyssa
Quoting 241. HadesGodWyvern:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM NANAUK (ARB01-2014)
2:30 AM IST June 12 2014
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, The cyclonic storm Nanauk over east central Arabian Sea moved slightly westwards with a speed about 3 knots during past 6 hours and lay centered near 17.5N 65.7E, about 770km west southwest of Mumbai, 620 km southwest of Veraval and 800 km east southeast of Masirah Island (Oman).

The system would intensify further during next 24 hours. It would move west northwestwards towards Oman coast during next 96 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian sea between latitude 12.5N to 19.5N 58.0E to 67.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -87C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the system. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 988 hPa.


It is really unusual to a system that strong in that basin

254. FOREX
62 minutes until the GFS shows future Arthur.
Quoting Grothar:


Duh!. Where do you think all those holes came from?

LOL. Somehow, I just knew you'd be the one to point out the origins of all those craters. At least this nutcase isn't from Alabama this time. :-)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Nanauk of the South vs Nanook of the North. Which is more interesting?

Nanauk of the South:



Nanook of the North:


I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought of Nanook when I saw that storm. I have to vote for Nanook. It's that whole blubber and igloo thing. At some point, Nanook will be floating around in a bass boat and living in a mobile home. :-)
HURRICANE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
2100 UTC WED JUN 11 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Americans by 2 to 1 Would Pay More to Curb Climate Change


India Dumping Duties Risk Choking Modi's Solar Revolution

Gigaboom: Obama Adds One More Reason to Like Tesla's Battery Factories

* Recession 'led to 10,000 suicides' Discuss

!!! Virunga Park oil hunt in DR Congo halted

* Extreme flooding events influence UK climate views

Germany struts its renewable stuff

!!! Genes found in nature yield 1918-like virus with pandemic potential




Gigantic explosions buried in dust: Probing environment around dark gamma-ray bursts

*** New fossil find pinpoints the origin of jaws in vertebrates



!!! Human language's deep origins appear to have come directly from birds, primates


*** Map of universe questioned: Dwarf galaxies don't fit standard model

* Mining data archives yields haul of 'red nuggets' galaxies


!!! Weird 'magic' ingredient for quantum computing: Contextuality



* More than just food for koalas: Scientists sequence genome of eucalyptus -- a global tree for fuel and fiber

*** Newly discovered paddle prints show how ancient sea reptiles swam


!!! How Earth avoided global warming, last time around

Texas Fishing Report

* Mixed report on West Virginia, Virginia Chesapeake Bay pollution control efforts

What's powering cleaner air? Natural gas.

Are we throwing away an energy solution?

*** Chile: Patagonia Dams Rejected

* How fish can make wind farms more efficient

Report: Forest loss starves fish

* Neil deGrasse Tyson Turns Down Pluto Debate Challenge


!!! Open-Air Defecation of 600 Million Indians Targeted by Inventor
Quoting 251. Grothar:



Duh!. Where do you think all those holes came from?


Well, since the Moon is actually made of cheese, I always assumed it was space mice eating the Moon.

Not some lunatic shooting the Moon.


jump up to cat 3 by morning!!
261. beell
Quoting 243. GatorWX:



Hey beell.

I'd have to agree. Doesn't look bad at all.



2nd major soon? Pretty nice burst currently. Perhaps a bit of dry air to the north, but it doesn't seem to be making a huge impact atm.


Hey Gator,
Looks like a hurricane!

Maybe a a dry channel trying to work in at about the 5 o'clock position at the edge of the convective mass (the blue "speartip" surrounded by green). Cristina may be able to wall that off.





nice looking hurricane!!
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

Cristina continues to gain strength. The eye has become more
distinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding
the center have cooled. In addition, the overall cloud pattern
appears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better
organized banding features. Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt
from both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC. Since that time, the eye has
become surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which
suggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt.

The hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional
strength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low
while Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters. In 2 to 3 days, the
environment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone
begins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear. These
hostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected
to become a remnant low in about 5 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term
to account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise
unchanged.

The eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial
motion estimate is 290/5. A slightly faster west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while
Cristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure system. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening
storm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of
the previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
This was a little scary. :(


Las Vegas's Desperate Attempt To Save Its Drinking Water May Be A Harbinger Of Our Drought-Filled Future
Popular Science

Kalee Thompson, Popular Science

Jun. 11, 2014, 9:23 PM


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 60 MILES WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
Quoting 214. ScottLincoln:


Very difficult to say for sure...

Oh yeah I know. It says "potential" tornado. Plus, it surely is interesting. Not often you get a supercell like that in PA
250 (and still counting) storm reports:

I found this story about the number of birds killed by wind turbines and it isn't near the problem some folks would make it out to be. source


Source: U.S. Forest Service
269. yoboi
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
This was a little scary. :(


Las Vegas's Desperate Attempt To Save Its Drinking Water May Be A Harbinger Of Our Drought-Filled Future
Popular Science

Kalee Thompson, Popular Science

Jun. 11, 2014, 9:23 PM



Don't drink the water???????
270. yoboi
Quoting PedleyCA:
I found this story about the number of birds killed by wind turbines and it isn't near the problem some folks would make it out to be. source


Source: U.S. Forest Service


Wow a cat in a window building next to a windmill can do some damage....;)
So uhh.... internet just came back 45 minutes ago.

A big storm (for Nassau) hit us around 7am this morning. Had at least 15-20 strikes within 200 yards in about a 5-7 minute period. It was unbelievable and it was honestly scary. Knocked out internet at my house until about an hour ago.
Quoting 267. Astrometeor:

250 (and still counting) storm reports:



The tornado-warned storm near Saginaw, MI may have actually had a tornado. There has been tree and structural damage SW of St. Charles, MI and a survey team will be sent out tomorrow. The picture is off of the NWS Detroit Facebook page. The SPC had no mention of tornadoes in MI today and didn't see anything in the AFD from DTX either, but getting onto the WFO pages today has been extremely slow at best.

00z is now running.
Quoting 273. Climate175:

00z is now running.


Should go and catch it before it gets away with itself again.

Otherwise, I'm gonna have to call Animal Control on this wild model.
Who needs a Tropical Cyclone. Last 2 Short Waves that passed by me dumped plenty of rain ( South La.)
Quoting 275. Astrometeor:



Should go and catch it before it gets away with itself again.

Otherwise, I'm gonna have to call Animal Control on this wild model.
Oh great the Tonight Show is on...
Q:Gro:

So what is this, day 9 of the Heartland MSC? What's causing this?
279. FOREX
Quoting 275. Astrometeor:



Should go and catch it before it gets away with itself again.

Otherwise, I'm gonna have to call Animal Control on this wild model.


lol. It's spin the wheel time. Landfall last night Mexico, earlier tonight Florida, now????????????????????????
00Z GFS has started to run
281. FOREX
Quoting 280. wunderkidcayman:

00Z GFS has started to run


I say this run it has landfall in Texas.
Quoting 281. FOREX:



I say this run it has landfall in Texas.
Well Ensembles are pointing now to a Florida run.
shear is a major inhibiting factor this season in the W/SW Caribbean for TS formation! Not saying something won't pop up , just sames unlikely for now at least! Have a goodnight all.
Look on the King City radar for Canada. There is a tornado-warned cell over St Catharines, heading toward Youngstown, NY. Main threats are 2-inch/hr flash flooding and a possible EF2 tornado, judging by the radar. As I write this, rain is tracking into Waterloo, Ontario and will likely continue in bursts for another hour or so.
Quoting 283. stormpetrol:

shear is a major inhibiting factor this season in the W/SW Caribbean for TS formation! Not saying something won't pop up , just sames unlikely for now at least! Have a goodnight all.


The shear seems normal in those areas for this time of year. >_>
Quoting 250. Grothar:

I don't think I have ever seen the Caribbean so quiet this time of year.





Are you kidding? On some days in August and September I've seen the Caribbean without a single cloud anywhere to be found.
Quoting 286. HurriHistory:

Are you kidding? On some days in August and September I've seen the Caribbean without a single cloud anywhere to be found.


He said "this time of year". August and September don't count.

:)
Jeez, East Pacific...

Quoting 282. Climate175:

Well Ensembles are pointing now to a Florida run.
A little premature to be talking about landfalls for something that's still very much a hypothetical.
This is pretty amazing when you think about it.

On June 11, 2003...

The mean temperature at Nashville of 75 degrees is one degree above normal, ending a remarkable streak of 22 consecutive cooler-than-normal days.

And, with that, good night.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



The shear seems normal in those areas for this time of year. >_>

"Everything is not....what it seems." -- Wizards of Waverly Place, Disney Channel

Quoting 291. TropicalAnalystwx13:


"Everything is not....what it seems." -- Wizards of Waverly Place, Disney Channel



Yeah as I said before GFS hypes on shear
Peaks 70-85kts in the GOM when the peak is only 60kts

And peaks 70kts in the W Carib when it peak is only 50kts

Central to E carib peaks 80kts when it's only 50kts



Quoting 288. Bluestorm5:

Jeez, East Pacific...

The atmosphere isn't even responding to El Nino yet. Methinks things are gonna get a little crazy starting in July.

I'm thinking 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 175-205 units by the time the season is over. Up there with the more active seasons on record. We're already off to a racing start, with ACE 544% of average.
Quoting 282. Climate175:

Well Ensembles are pointing now to a Florida run.


they show nothing still through 5 days and that's all that counts

Quoting 293. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The atmosphere isn't even responding to El Nino yet.
No but the ocean is already reflecting the trend toward El Nino, which is undoubtedly affecting the early-season major hurricanes we've been having.
Quoting 295. KoritheMan:


No but the ocean is already reflecting the trend toward El Nino, which is undoubtedly affecting the early-season major hurricanes we've been having.


It's definitely toasty out there.

297. emguy
Quoting 268. PedleyCA:

I found this story about the number of birds killed by wind turbines and it isn't near the problem some folks would make it out to be. source


Source: U.S. Forest Service


Well then I am gonna have to put a bridge up for sale. How can they even try an tabulate such statistics...they cant...second...a lot more states don't have wind turbines...but they sure do had the other stuff. Maybe it's better to research on a more local/analytical scale. Factor considerations for turbine locations...migratory patterns...endangered bird concentrations...the picture becomes clearer.

Side note....wind turbines are built of carbon fiber...the raw material is rayon...rayon is a product constructed completely of oil/fossil fuels. Without oil..."We Didn't build that".

Don't get me wrong...I do completely drink the cool aid....believe in climate change...but I will always consider the point counter point. Ya have to.
I had a 51 mph wind gust today along tampa bay with that line of storms
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =MTBF1

Yesterday's storms had gusts to 50 mph as well but not at the station I posted above.
Quoting 293. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The atmosphere isn't even responding to El Nino yet. Methinks things are gonna get a little crazy starting in July.

I'm thinking 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 175-205 units by the time the season is over. Up there with the more active seasons on record. We're already off to a racing start, with ACE 544% of average.


Mainly from one storm. lolz
300. FOREX
Quoting 294. scottsvb:



they show nothing still through 5 days and that's all that counts


Getting closer. Low appears on map at 138 hours this run.
Quoting 300. FOREX:



Getting closer. Low appears on map at 138 hours this run.



So it took a week to get under 144hrs? so by next week it will be down to 132hrs? lol
Guys, what a storm I have on my hands



Sarcasm flag is ON. lol
303. FOREX
Quoting 301. scottsvb:




So it took a week to get under 144hrs? so by next week it will be down to 132hrs? lol


lmao
Astrometeor: He said "this time of year". August and September don't count.

Don't forget the Monsoon trof backed up East last week into the Carib, condensing the
moisture and energy that went on to birth Cristina. I thing retrograde is the term.
Cristina is approaching major hurricane intensity. I'd like to see the -70C convection expand northward some as well as the eye become a little more circular before saying it's reached 100kt, but it looks like 95kt.

UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.4/99.6kt with the Raw T# at T5.9/112.4kt.

2014JUN12 034500 5.4 962.1 99.6 5.4 5.7 5.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -20.26 -66.76 EYE -99 IR 36.6 15.99 105.94 SPRL GOES13 40.0



Quoting 302. Thrawst:

Guys, what a storm I have on my hands





OMG CALL REED TIMMER. This is not good guys. ;)
Shear in the Carribean is a bit higher than usual.



The tropical wave moving across Venezuela on the 18z NHC surface map is probably the mechanism the pot-smoking GFS thinks will ignite tropical cyclogenesis.

Probably not happening, but uh... we're bored. So yeah.


Quoting 300. FOREX:



Getting closer. Low appears on map at 138 hours this run.


It really doesn't have a "Low" until 159hrs out.. 6-7 days which it's been doing for 3-4 weeks. Broad low but from overcondenced feedback on energy blow ups from false T-Storm cells. What we need to see is a low form within 120hrs and support from the Euro in 120hrs..and even then if both are showing the same thing, it's still a 40% Chance only cause that is still 5 days out. Right now being at 6-7 days and NO Euro chances are around 15%
Shear in the subtropical Atlantic is quite low.

Quoting 302. Thrawst:

Guys, what a storm I have on my hands



Sarcasm flag is ON. lol
Does this mean u r in Nassau?
Shear in tropical Atlantic is up a bit but I think not unusually so.

Quoting 305. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cristina is approaching major hurricane intensity. I'd like to see the -70C convection expand northward some as well as the eye become a little more circular before saying it's reached 100kt, but it looks like 95kt.

UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.4/99.6kt with the Raw T# at T5.9/112.4kt.

2014JUN12 034500 5.4 962.1 99.6 5.4 5.7 5.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF -20.26 -66.76 EYE -99 IR 36.6 15.99 105.94 SPRL GOES13 40.0




OMG CALL REED TIMMER. This is not good guys. ;)


Hey I called it first I Said Cristina would make a run for major cane status
Lol
Quoting 310. BahaHurican:

Does this mean u r in Nassau?


Yup back in Nassau for the summer!

btw, i think i irritated the little guy...

Quoting 308. scottsvb:



It really doesn't have a "Low" until 159hrs out.. 6-7 days which it's been doing for 3-4 weeks. Broad low but from overcondenced feedback on energy blow ups from false T-Storm cells. What we need to see is a low form within 120hrs and support from the Euro in 120hrs..and even then if both are showing the same thing, it's still a 40% Chance only cause that is still 5 days out. Right now being at 6-7 days and NO Euro chances are around 15%

Actually your wrong it has a low 138hrs out

Yes it might get into the 120hrs range soon

Anyway this run is following the trend towards Florida
Quoting 297. emguy:



Well then I am gonna have to put a bridge up for sale. How can they even try an tabulate such statistics...they cant...second...a lot more states don't have wind turbines...but they sure do had the other stuff. Maybe it's better to research on a more local/analytical scale. Factor considerations for turbine locations...migratory patterns...endangered bird concentrations...the picture becomes clearer. ...

What? You don't think it's possible to collect a representative sample of dead birds, do a postmortem on each one, and come to some conclusion concerning the likely cause of death? If you have a representative sample of dead birds, from those data and a few simple assumptions you can get a pretty good estimate of the likely total number of birds that die from each of the identifiable causes of death.

My problem isn't with the numbers per se. It's that there are no error bars, which in several of the categories must be rather large, and most likely large enough that the exact order of several of the middle-ranking categories remains in doubt.
Hmmm... sounds like it's raining again outside.... I'm starting to wonder how long it will take to reach saturation point...


WV view.
00Z NAVGEM is still on the W Carib system trend
Quoting 318. wunderkidcayman:

00Z NAVGEM is still on the W Carib system trend

Not as strong as what GFS shows but I'd say about the same as the 18Z NAVGEM run
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:

For 18Z GFS starting to trend for a Florida system
Timing still generally kept still shows disturbance starting up late weekend (Sunday) and low forms early next week
So far it's has kept timing for about 3 days or so that's another trend

And 18Z NAVGEM starting to trend on W Carib system although weaker than the GFS
18Z run shows the system stronger than it did on 12Z run


I'm still non-committal on a named storm, or even a proper disturbance, next week. I am still eying the GFS' consistent forecast of moist conditions over this area, though; GFS has put unsettled wx / rainy pattern over the NW Bahamas, FL, and eastern GoM basically since the end of last week, and it doesn't appear to be vacillating about that. If we do indeed get a TS or higher on the wind scale, we may be getting it on some rather saturated soil...
Quoting 318. wunderkidcayman:

00Z NAVGEM is still on the W Carib system trend


Nothing is showing anything..anything after 5 days is fantasy. Why are you not learning this after day after day of this going on for many weeks!
Looks like this huge low over Venezuela will be the one GFS develops S of Cuba??

Ok so far
GFS
NAVGEM
NOAA's FIM family of models
Are on board with W Carib development
Quoting 314. wunderkidcayman:


Actually your wrong it has a low 138hrs out

Yes it might get into the 120hrs range soon




There is a L not a LLC that is organized enough to be a TD. This is what we want to see
Quoting 323. wunderkidcayman:

Ok so far
GFS
NAVGEM
NOAA's FIM family of models
Are on board with W Carib development


None are showing anything within 6 1/2 days. It's been the same thing for weeks
Quoting 322. sunlinepr:

Looks like this huge low over Venezuela will be the one GFS develops S of Cuba??




Nope, westerly moving TW along the ITZ
Quoting 321. scottsvb:



Nothing is showing anything..anything after 5 days is fantasy. Why are you not learning this after day after day of this going on for many weeks!

Scott your the one not learning
I'm only putting what the models show

I'm not saying that it will or will not happen
When and if it gets closer to time I will then I will state what ever I need to

Quoting 329. wunderkidcayman:


Scott your the one not learning
I'm only putting what the models show

I'm not saying that it will or will not happen
When and if it gets closer to time I will then I will state what ever I need to




I'm not learning? learning what? that your just dreamcasting a storm every day for weeks to develop? You're not saying it will or will not happen but again you keep saying it will happen for weeks?

Yes something could form eventually, but not in the next week-10 days. I've been saying wait till the end of the month for 2 weeks now
Quoting 325. scottsvb:



There is a L not a LLC that is organized enough to be a TD. This is what we want to see

There is a low and look again at the wind barbs it shows a closed LLC so actual low formation is at 138hrs
I didn't say anything about TD
Organisation to about TD standards according to 00Z run would be around 156-162hrs
Quoting 332. wunderkidcayman:


There is a low and look again at the wind barbs it shows a closed LLC so actual low formation is at 138hrs
I didn't say anything about TD
Organisation to about TD standards according to 00Z run would be around 156-162hrs


Correct but at 138hrs its not a LLC, just a broad area.
Quoting 287. Astrometeor:



He said "this time of year". August and September don't count.

:)
Yes they do. What is so special about this time of year? On any given day during the summer months you can have a cloudless day in the tropics.
There are many areas of "Low Pressure" in a broad area of "Lower" pressure. But a well defined area of low pressure doesn't form until after 6 1/2 days and again, anything over 5 days on this means the chances this will happen is around 15% or less.
Quoting 321. scottsvb:



Nothing is showing anything..anything after 5 days is fantasy. Why are you not learning this after day after day of this going on for many weeks!
You tell'em kido. The GFS has had the same tropical system hitting Florida for the last three weeks. You watch, the next run will have this thing making landfall around Tampico Mexico. It changes it's mind every other run.
Quoting 322. sunlinepr:

Looks like this huge low over Venezuela will be the one GFS develops S of Cuba??



According to GFS the tropical wave that in that area is what sparks it supposedly


Quoting 331. scottsvb:



I'm not learning? learning what? that your just dreamcasting a storm every day for weeks to develop? You're not saying it will or will not happen but again you keep saying it will happen for weeks?

Yes something could form eventually, but not in the next week-10 days. I've been saying wait till the end of the month for 2 weeks now

I'm not dreamcasting anything
I'm not sayin anything of that sort
The only thing I am saying is what the models show
I'm not saying it will or will not develop
The only thing I'm saying is what the models show


You need to learn
I am not saying anything about development the only thing that is
Is the models and I'm just expressing exactly what the models show
So I am not saying that I say it will develop
I'm just saying ok this is what the models show
Quoting 333. scottsvb:



Correct but at 138hrs its not a LLC, just a broad area.

All 4 corners show closed LLC not only that but also a closed isobar on 138hrs so yeah not a broad area
Quoting 336. HurriHistory:

You tell'em kido. The GFS has had the same tropical system hitting Florida for the last three weeks. You watch, the next run will have this thing making landfall around Tampico Mexico. It changes it's mind every other run.

Hmm no
GFS had this going toward Texas but then for the past 3 consecutive runs it has taken it to Florida


Anyway what ever it will be interesting to see what it does for the rest of this week and weekend


maybe a cat 3 hurricane with winds 120 mph!
Hurricane Cristina, the third named storm and second hurricane of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season continues to strengthen and churn to the west of the coast of Mexico.

It initially formed as Tropical Depression Three-E Monday afternoon about 160 miles south of Zihuantanejo, Mexico. Six hours later the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a tropical storm, giving it the third name on this year's 2014 Eastern Pacific naming list, Cristina. Cristina became a hurricane early Wednesday morning, and reached Category 2 strength Wednesday evening.

Cristina is moving slowly to the west. A west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next several days. This will keep its center offshore over the next five days, and will gradually take it farther away from shore.
Quoting 340. hurricanes2018:



maybe a cat 3 hurricane with winds 120 mph!

Well I did state when Cristina was just starting out that it would make a run for Major Hurricane
Satellite presentation of Cristina continues to improve with a more symmetrical -70C cloud tops surrounding a warming eye. I'd say this is a major hurricane. Could reach Category 4 intensity before weakening.

Quoting 343. Civicane49:

Satellite presentation of Cristina continues to improve with a more symmetrical -70C cloud tops surrounding a warming eye. I'd say this is a major hurricane. Could reach Category 4 intensity before weakening.



I also said that it could take a quick sprint to cat 5 then cat 4 and back down before being killed off
Amanda and Cristina have both become very well-formed and good-looking hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific already this year.
346. vis0
CREDIT::University of Hawaii
SUBJECT::ePac(ific) Hurricane Kristina
Imagery OBS::201406-11;1800_-12;0600UTC



HOSTED bu VIDmeup







Embedded VID not showing try clicking thumbtac::


ECMWF shows a much more likely scenario; a broad area of low pressure develops within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, presumably in response to the tropical wave I mentioned earlier. It doesn't show it consolidating into a tropical cyclone (for now) and it's at a relatively low latitude where development probably won't occur, but this seems infinitely more likely than any Caribbean cyclone moving into the Gulf.
Still plenty of room to intensify:


HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified
during the past several hours. Convection around the center has
become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better
defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105
kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching
the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming
sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is
predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina
likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern
Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than
the previous one in the short term to account for the initial
intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.

Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a
mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward
motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane
remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west
and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes
more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some
model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost
unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is
basically an update of the last prediction.

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 271. Thrawst:

So uhh.... internet just came back 45 minutes ago.

A big storm (for Nassau) hit us around 7am this morning. Had at least 15-20 strikes within 200 yards in about a 5-7 minute period. It was unbelievable and it was honestly scary. Knocked out internet at my house until about an hour ago.
Yeah, I was wondering if you were back yet. That storm made me late for work... had to sit for almost 1.5 hours because the rain was so heavy and the lightning so fierce. The lights flickered a few times up this side, but at least we didn't lose power. The lightning was pretty impressive.

Good morning all...
Seems like another round of storms for Nassau this morning, but yikes! look over S FL!



Quoting 334. HurriHistory:

Yes they do. What is so special about this time of year? On any given day during the summer months you can have a cloudless day in the tropics.
At this time of year there's supposed to be shower activity connected I suppose to passing tropical waves. The Twaves are all passing south of the Car, so it appears clearer than normal.



Well, the rain is down again... I think I'll go get ready, because it looks like another morning of "waiting for a lull"....
Wet morning across South Florida.


Well, it seems this area of disturbed wx is headed my way, so I'm really gone. I'll check in later if time and wx permit...
Good morning.

One word to say about how the 2014 EPAC season has begun is impressive. ACE is going up rapidly and as of the 09:00z advisory of Hurricane Cristina as a major cane (105kts) is 22.8225 units. Then there is this:

Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the
eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the
former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.
Cristina making a run at Cat 4 status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.2mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 6.5

The 3.4 region has cooled below 0.5C again. I still believe it will be late July/August before it kicks in.

Quoting PedleyCA:
I found this story about the number of birds killed by wind turbines and it isn't near the problem some folks would make it out to be. source


Source: U.S. Forest Service


I thought pesticides and cats would be lower (more deaths) on the list.
Quoting stormpetrol:
shear is a major inhibiting factor this season in the W/SW Caribbean for TS formation! Not saying something won't pop up , just sames unlikely for now at least! Have a goodnight all.


In other words, like most Junes (shear is stronger than normal right now but normal shear levels are sufficient to crush tc genesis most of the time in June [ but not all of the time] )

On the other hand I'll argue (agree) that some of this shear is response to warming of the Central and East Pacific deep tropics but I have not had time to assemble the scholarly evidence supporting it or present the (known to our science but not to me) explanation how this happens.
Quoting 356. MAweatherboy1:

Cristina making a run at Cat 4 status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.2mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 6.5


It almost looks like the outflow on the south side is thwarting the nearby shear from affecting it. Notice how the cirrus deck hits some seeming resistance as it attempts to shear the outer core.




Quoting 360. georgevandenberghe:



In other words, like most Junes (shear is stronger than normal right now but normal shear levels are sufficient to crush tc genesis most of the time in June [ but not all of the time] )

On the other hand I'll argue (agree) that some of this shear is response to warming of the Central and East Pacific deep tropics but I have not had time to assemble the scholarly evidence supporting it or present the (known to our science but not to me) explanation how this happens.



Put simply... it happens because convection is attracted to heat. El Nino is an anomalously warm equatorial Pacific phenomenon, and the heat from that generates increased thunderstorms. The outflow from the thunderstorms effectively shear the Caribbean as a ballooning upper ridge released by latent heat manifests in response to the cumulative shower activity.
363. MahFL
Quoting 358. StormWx:

The 3.4 region has cooled below 0.5C again. I still believe it will be late July/August before it kicks in.




It can't be July or Aug as it has to be below .5 for 3 months, correct ? So October would be the earliest it could be declared ?
Quoting 363. MahFL:



It can't be July or Aug as it has to be below .5 for 3 months, correct ? So October would be the earliest it could be declared ?


The average across all regions has been above 0.5C for many weeks.
for rookies study climatology. then if you have that understood. pick the fly poop out of a jelly jar
366. MahFL
Quoting 365. islander101010:

for rookies study climatology. then if you have that understood. pick the fly poop out of a jelly jar


Uh ?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Cristina making a run at Cat 4 status.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.2mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 6.5



Based on the NHC forecasts, Hurricane Cristina will be down graded to a Tropical Storm by Saturday.
Hard to believe by how well she is currently doing, but EPac storms are famous for quickly falling apart as they move into a less favorable environment.
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...
5:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 12
Location: 16.4°N 106.8°W
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
Look like are storm is making a run for cat 5
Quoting 363. MahFL:



It can't be July or Aug as it has to be below .5 for 3 months, correct ? So October would be the earliest it could be declared ?


It's a 3 month running average Link greater than 0.5 C for El Nino and less than -0.5 for La Nina. In reality, a daily value just below .5 has very little impact on the 3 month running average (in terms of that 0.5 needed for declaration of an El Nino event). If that were to persist for a longer time period or if it was a larger deviation from the .5 threshold, we could start to infer some possible trends, but a daily value of 0.48 is just another data point.
So far today! a lot of rain and more coming!
Tornado probabilities for today.
I'm not overly impressed looking at the models for today, but that could change as the day goes on.
Latest 3 month running average in the 3.4 NIno region is -0.2C for March-April-May. The next 3 month average will be much higher as the March temperature anomalies were very low. The period April-May-June will be much closer to the .5C needed. How close will depend on the rest of June and the forecasted MJO in the EL Nino region. Link
HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight. Its
well-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as cold
as -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 kt
based mainly on objective ADT guidance. This makes Cristina the
second category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.

This special advisory is being issued to update the initial
intensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours.
The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTC
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
Pretty much unprecedented to see two Cat 4 hurricanes in the East Pacific by this point in the year. Not just barely making the grade Cat 4's either, Amanda was nearly a Cat 5 and now Cristina is a solid 4, and looks like it'll peak on the high end of that category as well.



Another example of the challenges in predicting RI. This is the second time the NHC has completely blown the intensity forecast this year. This one was probably even harder to anticipate than Amanda though. I certainly didn't see it coming with all the dry air challenges the storm had to face.
It will be interesting to see if this next strong MJO pulse can surface the meat of this Kelvin Wave as this subsurface warm pool is still very impressive with plus 6C anomalies sitting just beneath the surface from Nino 3 to Nino 1&2.


Quoting 376. MAweatherboy1:

Pretty much unprecedented to see two Cat 4 hurricanes in the East Pacific by this point in the year. Not just barely making the grade Cat 4's either, Amanda was nearly a Cat 5 and now Cristina is a solid 4, and looks like it'll peak on the high end of that category as well.



Another example of the challenges in predicting RI. This is the second time the NHC has completely blown the intensity forecast this year. This one was probably even harder to anticipate than Amanda though. I certainly didn't see it coming with all the dry air challenges the storm had to face.


This what happens in El Nino years we will be seeing more storms like this has we head in two the rest of the E PAC hurricane season this is where the fun will be this year
In the EPAC region, can upwelling from repeated tropical systems keep fisheries open, when El Nino downwelling would ordinarily starve them into deeper water? Or are the storms too far away from the impacted systems like the coast of Peru and too weak by orders of magnitude?
Amanda was unable to reach Category 5 intensity; will Cristina do it? Still has today to intensify.

I'd set the intensity at 130kt.

381. 1344
Cristina is freaking incredible. Really am stunned it is 125 knots. Looks gorgeous. 2 solid Cat 4's in 3 storm!!!! And we're barely into June. This is why I love the EPAC folks. WOW!!!!
Quoting 297. emguy:



Well then I am gonna have to put a bridge up for sale. How can they even try an tabulate such statistics...they cant...


Yes, they can. It's not really all that hard. Tedious? Yes. Impossible? No. It's not like calculating the LD50 of pesticides for birds requires magic.

second...a lot more states don't have wind turbines...but they sure do had the other stuff. Maybe it's better to research on a more local/analytical scale. Factor considerations for turbine locations...migratory patterns...endangered bird concentrations...the picture becomes clearer.


You know, it seems like more and more people think that scientists are just plain freakin' stupid. Honestly do you think people who do these kinds of studies don't take those kinds of factors into account? Try reading the actual studies.

Side note....wind turbines are built of carbon fiber...the raw material is rayon...rayon is a product constructed completely of oil/fossil fuels. Without oil..."We Didn't build that".


Incorrect. Carbon fiber is made from polyacrylonitrile (aka PAN). The fundamental component to making PAN is propene. While propene is a by-product of oil refining, propene is an organic compound that can be found naturally from other sources and/or manufactured from them. Fossil fuels are not a requirement for making carbon fiber.

Don't get me wrong...I do completely drink the cool aid....believe in climate change...but I will always consider the point counter point. Ya have to.


There is no cool aid to drink. You either accept the science or you don't. And considering other views is useful as long as you are correctly informed.
2014 may not be the Atlantic's year but 2015 probably will as history has shown more than not.Don't worry caiboy and WKC.Hopefully the pattern shifts as I'am tired of storms running up the coast almost every damn year now since 2009.
Quoting 378. Tazmanian:



This what happens in El Nino years we will be seeing more storms like this has we head in two the rest of the E PAC hurricane season this is where the fun will be this year
I hope the storms spare Mexico this season. Some are still recovering from other storms.
Rainy Season is in full effect across FL. Lightning has been crazy lately with these storms.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It will be interesting to see if this next strong MJO pulse can surface the meat of this Kelvin Wave as this subsurface warm pool is still very impressive with plus 6C anomalies sitting just beneath the surface from Nino 3 to Nino 1&2.




Hey bubba! Havent seen you in a while, enjoy your sunny FL day :o) El Nino is getting close to official it appears. Too bad the GFS isnt getting closer to being a reliable model for cyclone development. Glad we didnt get Arthur to cross CFL and turn NW into GA like you had mentioned last week would happen, that would have been a doozy but as always didnt verify.
Quoting 384. hydrus:

I hope the storms spare Mexico this season. Some are still recovering from other storms.


Not to sound down but the Pacific side of Mexico is in for a very active hurricane season with possibly numerous impacts to Mexico from landfalling tropical systems. This is very typical of El-Nino.
Quoting 383. washingtonian115:

2014 may not be the Atlantic's year but 2015 probably will as history has shown more than not.Don't worry caiboy and WKC.Hopefully the pattern shifts as I'am tired of storms running up the coast almost every damn year now since 2009.



Reported watch what you say please
Good Morning.  Always a beautiful sight, nature wise, to see a nicely formed tropical storm with a nicely formed eye wall-eye feature moving away from populated areas in in the middle of nowhere......................A harbringer of how active the Pacific season will be this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03E/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif
It's a real possibility that Cristina does end up becoming a category 5 and if it doesn't, it'll be very close.

Hurricanes like Cristina that have tight, intense eyewalls can easily go through an EWRC. I think there's a good possibility one could occur sometime today, but for now, it doesn't look like one's imminent.
FInal T# from UW-CIMSS ADT is T6.7/132.2kt while Adjusted and Raw go up to T7.0/140kt (Cat 5).

2014JUN12 121500 6.7 933.1 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 10.84 -73.64 EYE 13 IR 53.7 16.31 106.86 COMBO GOES13 41.1
Quoting 388. Tazmanian:




Reported watch what you say please


I'm sure she didn't mean to curse. I don't know if she needs to be reported for that.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2014 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:34 N Lon : 106:51:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 933.1mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.1 degrees


Raw T # this hit 7.0
Quoting 394. nwobilderburg:



I'm sure she didn't mean to curse. I don't know if she needs to be reported for that.


Rule 5 Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.


Hey don't look at me am not the one oh put the rule out the mods did and am not trying two be blog police if you look at the rules of the Rd you see the find print we now return you to the weather
.
I leave for a few days and come back to another EPAC major and a cyclone in the Indian...
My neck of the woods has been getting some bad storms...one this morning blew some trees down here
Quoting 398. Tazmanian:



Rule 5 Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.


Hey don't look at me am not the one oh put the rule out the mods did and am not trying two be blog police if you look at the rules of the Rd you see the find print we now return you to the weather

Damn - this comes from countrymen of that pro life ha ha politician who wants gays stoned to death!
Quoting 400. StormWx:



Cool photos. Yep the rainy season is in full force and has been since late May, when it officially started. Expect this until October when it will officially end :o)



And that is when our raining season underway we may start seeing storms has soon g as Sept
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Rainy Season is in full effect across FL. Lightning has been crazy lately with these storms.




Cool photos. Yep the rainy season is in full force and has been since late May, when it officially started. Expect this until October when it will officially end :o)
The problem lies in the species affected-  From Forbes= http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/09/22/ wind-energy-gets-away-with-murder/
A paper published in the Journal of Raptor Research by Fish and
Wildlife researchers really hit a nerve when it reported that wind
energy facilities have killed at least 67 golden and bald eagles in the
last five years. Because companies report eagle deaths voluntarily, the
scientists said their figure is greatly underestimated.
Even worse, the study did not include the large wind farm at Altamont
Pass in California that alone kills more than 60 eagles per year (NBC). 
In addition, the recently-approved construction of the nation’s largest
wind farm in Wyoming would kill about 50 eagles each year, just by
itself.The
facts are more in the line of a wholesale slaughter. The same windy
conditions that favor the placement of wind turbines also prove
irresistible to birds of prey. There are presently more than 39,000
turbines in our nation. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
“wind turbines kill more than 440,000 bald and golden eagles, hawks,
falcons, owls, cranes, egrets, geese and other birds every year in the
United States (“Driessen: Big Wind tax credits exterminate endangered
species”; Washington Times; Dec. 22, 2012). That same
article also revealed that around 2,300 golden eagles have been killed
at one location only (Altamont Pass, Calif.) in the past 25 years. Their
population has decreased by 80 percent. Whooping cranes nearly went
extinct a few years back, and now around 200 of them are “missing.” Tom
Stehn is in charge of the whooping cranes at FWS; he is worried they may
actually go extinct soon because of thousands of wind turbines directly
in their 2,500 - See more at:
http://columbiadailyherald.com/opinion/columns/av ian-holocaust-protecting-wind-farms-killing-birds# sthash.5blLcSdi.dpufThe
facts are more in the line of a wholesale slaughter. The same windy
conditions that favor the placement of wind turbines also prove
irresistible to birds of prey. There are presently more than 39,000
turbines in our nation. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
“wind turbines kill more than 440,000 bald and golden eagles, hawks,
falcons, owls, cranes, egrets, geese and other birds every year in the
United States (“Driessen: Big Wind tax credits exterminate endangered
species”; Washington Times; Dec. 22, 2012). That same
article also revealed that around 2,300 golden eagles have been killed
at one location only (Altamont Pass, Calif.) in the past 25 years. Their
population has decreased by 80 percent. Whooping cranes nearly went
extinct a few years back, and now around 200 of them are “missing.” Tom
Stehn is in charge of the whooping cranes at FWS; he is worried they may
actually go extinct soon because of thousands of wind turbines directly
in their 2,500 mile long migration path. - See more at:
http://columbiadailyherald.com/opinion/columns/av ian-holocaust-protecting-wind-farms-killing-birds# sthash.5blLcSdi.dpufThe
facts are more in the line of a wholesale slaughter. The same windy
conditions that favor the placement of wind turbines also prove
irresistible to birds of prey. There are presently more than 39,000
turbines in our nation. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
“wind turbines kill more than 440,000 bald and golden eagles, hawks,
falcons, owls, cranes, egrets, geese and other birds every year in the
United States (“Driessen: Big Wind tax credits exterminate endangered
species”; Washington Times; Dec. 22, 2012). That same
article also revealed that around 2,300 golden eagles have been killed
at one location only (Altamont Pass, Calif.) in the past 25 years. Their
population has decreased by 80 percent. Whooping cranes nearly went
extinct a few years back, and now around 200 of them are “missing.” Tom
Stehn is in charge of the whooping cranes at FWS; he is worried they may
actually go extinct soon because of thousands of wind turbines directly
in their 2,500 mile long migration path. - See more at:
http://columbiadailyherald.com/opinion/columns/av ian-holocaust-protecting-wind-farms-killing-birds# sthash.5blLcSdi.dpufThe
facts are more in the line of a wholesale slaughter. The same windy
conditions that favor the placement of wind turbines also prove
irresistible to birds of prey. There are presently more than 39,000
turbines in our nation. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,
“wind turbines kill more than 440,000 bald and golden eagles, hawks,
falcons, owls, cranes, egrets, geese and other birds every year in the
United States (“Driessen: Big Wind tax credits exterminate endangered
species”; Washington Times; Dec. 22, 2012). That same
article also revealed that around 2,300 golden eagles have been killed
at one location only (Altamont Pass, Calif.) in the past 25 years. Their
population has decreased by 80 percent. Whooping cranes nearly went
extinct a few years back, and now around 200 of them are “missing.” Tom
Stehn is in charge of the whooping cranes at FWS; he is worried they may
actually go extinct soon because of thousands of wind turbines directly
in their 2,500 mile long migration path. - See more at:
http://columbiadailyherald.com/opinion/columns/av ian-holocaust-protecting-wind-farms-killing-birds# sthash.5blLcSdi.dpuf


, I found this story about the number of
birds killed by wind turbines and it isn't near the problem some folks
would make it out to be. source


Source: U.S. Forest Service


I thought pesticides and cats would be lower (more deaths) on the list.
406. SLU
This is a beautiful hurricane.

It will be interesting to see if this next strong MJO pulse can surface the meat of this Kelvin Wave as this subsurface warm pool is still very impressive with plus 6C anomalies sitting just beneath the surface from Nino 3 to Nino 1&2.

last week i thought the wind pattern was beginning to shift from blowing to the west to blowing to the east....now when you can look at earthnullschool....you can see it didn't happen....at least not in the 3.4 region...winds are stronger to the west than they have been in weeks.....although there's a slight push east in regions 1-2....i think cristina has a lot to do with that though...by the way...no el nino declared june 5th....can't trust those twitter feeds :-)
Quoting 395. Tazmanian:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2014 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:34 N Lon : 106:51:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 933.1mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : 10.8C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 55km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.1 degrees


Raw T # this hit 7.0

Well that escalated quickly. Cristina has blossomed very nicely overnight. Although it appears her rapid intensification may have began to slow, as she is topping off right at about 150 Mph, for now. This may be her peak intensity, or she may get a little stronger before beginning to weaken later today.
Yes, wind farms kills birds. Overall they kill birds at very low rates, but some species are effected more than others. In a study it was reported that at least 85 Golden Eagles were killed across 10 states from wind energy from 1997 - 2012 Link, however another study showed that from 1968 - 2010 (the time period studied) Golden Eagle Population has remained stable. Link

Let's not pretend this argument has any real merit. The environmental effects of AGW will be far worse than the deaths of birds from wind power if continued unabated. There are ALWAYS negatives to energy production, but let's not kid ourselves by saying "think of the Eagles" when the entirety of the Eagle's habitat is at risk if we do nothing.

People attack AGW scientists for being "alarmist", yet here we are ignoring the predicted environmental effects and being alarmist about a small number of birds that won't even exist if we keep going down the path we are on...
Quoting 393. TropicalAnalystwx13:

FInal T# from UW-CIMSS ADT is T6.7/132.2kt while Adjusted and Raw go up to T7.0/140kt (Cat 5).

2014JUN12 121500 6.7 933.1 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 10.84 -73.64 EYE 13 IR 53.7 16.31 106.86 COMBO GOES13 41.1


NHC will probably go with 150-155 Mph at this advisory, before considering upgrading Cristina to a Category 5, I think. They don't particularly consider the Raw T# until the estimates reflect that with the offical ADT #. But, we have seen them make their better judgement of going against the T# and setting their own intensity before. I'm still betting on high-end category 4.
411. 1344
Not sure if anyone posted this, but 12z ATCF kept Cristina at 125 knts. Will it be upped to 130ktns at 15z? I would not rule it out.
Hmm
One small purple spot in the SW Caribbean
Lol

Well I was right about Cristina from the start major hurricane material
And my my thoughts on possibly becoming a Cat 5 may ring truth
Atlantic basin will have a very active hurricane season 17 storms - 10 hurricanes - 8 major hurricanes. Remember I was one of the few who kept telling people last year will underachieve. The facts to support this claim include avg atlantic sea surface temps, atmosphere behaving in a Neutral setting, and presence of higher moisture content as opposed to previous years. Expect a very active season folks!!
Quoting 394. nwobilderburg:



I'm sure she didn't mean to curse. I don't know if she needs to be reported for that.
The D word has been said before on this blog by other members so I'm not paying attention to that xD.
Everyone bickering that this season will not see a name till August or saying the Epac is gona be hot this year, are wrong.
The residents of that small island to the west may be quite concerned.


Nanauk...

i can't find a way to copy the graph here....but follow the link to see that 2014 in no way compares to strong el nino's of the past.....here
Quoting 398. Tazmanian:



Rule 5 Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.


Hey don't look at me am not the one oh put the rule out the mods did and am not trying two be blog police if you look at the rules of the Rd you see the find print we now return you to the weather


FCC doesn't agree that the word she used was foul or obscene. Allowed (and worse) on public broadcasts etc. Therefore the problem seems to be with the one complaining trying to impose their POV on others. I generally like your posts, but you are way overboard on this one.
Everyone bickering that this season will not see a name till August or saying the Epac is gona be hot this year, are wrong.



hmmmm.......3 epac systems by the first half of june and two that are major.......that kind of translates that the epac is hot in my book
Quoting 417. Camille33:

Everyone bickering that this season will not see a name till August or saying the Epac is gona be hot this year, are wrong.


Your the one is going two be wrong troll
423. ryang
Quoting 406. SLU:

This is a beautiful hurricane.




When will the atlantic see something like this again? It's been a while.
Quoting 422. Tazmanian:



Your the one is going two be wrong troll


Lets see what happens first!! My predictions beat Levi and everyone else on this board last year. I told everyone that the wave everyone was expecting of storms in late August will not occur and it didn't.
Quoting 423. ryang:



When will the atlantic see something like this again? It's been a while.
If history is repeating it's self then 2015..and if 2015 follows the path of 2013 and 2014 then something is wrong in the Atlantic.
Quoting 419. ricderr:

i can't find a way to copy the graph here....but follow the link to see that 2014 in no way compares to strong el nino's of the past.....here


I doubt we will see a strong EL Nino; I think moderate is more likely, but I wouldn't count anything out yet. The oceans have absorbed a lot of heat lately and as Dr. Rood has put it,

"From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast...In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing."
427. SLU
Quoting 423. ryang:



When will the atlantic see something like this again? It's been a while.


Not until 2015 :)
The GFS is relentless at bringing something out of the Caribbean or is it just convective feedback? This has been going on for two plus weeks. Enough already GFS.
Quoting 426. Naga5000:



I doubt we will see a strong EL Nino; I think moderate is more likely, but I wouldn't count anything out yet. The oceans have absorbed a lot of heat lately and as Dr. Rood has put it,

"From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast...In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing."

No el nino coming it will remain neutral and cool off during the summer. First of all the cold water centered invof the western SA coast is really hindering the development of a sustained el nino. Sub sfc temps have begun to cool, and unless another Kelvin wave occurs there is nothing suggesting any further warming. Expect a similar warm sided Neutral to 2005.
430. MahFL
Quoting 423. ryang:



When will the atlantic see something like this again? It's been a while.


2015.
Quoting 415. Camille33:
Atlantic basin will have a very active hurricane season 17 storms - 10 hurricanes - 8 major hurricanes. Remember I was one of the few who kept telling people last year will underachieve. The facts to support this claim include avg atlantic sea surface temps, atmosphere behaving in a Neutral setting, and presence of higher moisture content as opposed to previous years. Expect a very active season folks!!


I think that the emerging El Nino will deflate that claim.
432. SLU
Quoting 418. hydrus:

The residents of that small island to the west may be quite concerned.


Nanauk...




Socorro Island ... largely uninhabited but for a military base I think.
433. SLU
Socorro Island

Quoting 429. Camille33:


No el nino coming it will remain neutral and cool off during the summer. First of all the cold water centered invof the western SA coast is really hindering the development of a sustained el nino. Sub sfc temps have begun to cool, and unless another Kelvin wave occurs there is nothing suggesting any further warming. Expect a similar warm sided Neutral to 2005.


That's very definitive of you, however, it should be pointed out that the current probabilities forecasted by NOAA and Australian Met are 70% chance of an El Nino event. Link Link and NOAA calls for an 80% chance by fall and winter.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

...CRISTINA REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. CRISTINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CRISTINA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CRISTINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTINA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
It struggled initially, but Cristina is yet another example that a storm will not struggle with dry air in the absence of low wind shear when the inner core becomes well established. 700-500mb RH values are currently in the upper 50s to near 60 (%).

Good morning Everyone, hope everyone is having a great day
"From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast...In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing."


the study of el nino is a new science of less than 40 years.....couple that with what you say the atmosphere is changing...and we see why even some experts have been wrong this year.....i don't claim to know anything about el nino...i just read alot :-)
HRRR is forecasting a second round of storms this evening that look quite strong. It could get interesting for Southcentral, Central and Southeast Tx this evening.
Quoting 413. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm
One small purple spot in the SW Caribbean
Lol


I needed a magnifying glass to found it. Its the same size as the bay islands in that map.
Quoting 433. SLU:

Socorro Island


Will Socorro get socked.?..Stay tuned..I heard the folks there are very familiar with cyclones.
Hey all, just got back from a few days enjoying some perfect NoFla weather on the GOM. Was almost hoping for a good storm but i'm sure the rest of my family would have hated having to stay in the condo.

Now back in TN our neighbors tell us its been raining everyday we where gone... talk about perfect timing!
Quoting hydrus:
Will Socorro get socked.?..Stay tuned..I heard the folks there are very familiar with cyclones.


Based on the NHC forecast Cristina will still be a hurricane as she passes the Islands (4 islands make up the Revillagigedos Archipelago, which includes Socorro).
But she will be much weaker than she is now.
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

Cristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented,
phase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its
maximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday.
The hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold
cloud tops to near -80C. Water vapor images indicate that
upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern
quadrant but is good elsewhere. Cristina has strengthened so fast
that TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by
Dvorak rules. The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little
below the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt.

The intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no
further significant strengthening is expected. However, light
vertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to
maintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so.
After that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea
surface temperatures should induce significant weakening after
about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is fairly close to
the consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory.

Cristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over
northern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt. The
cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to
northwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and
the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario.
The GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north
after 48 hours. The official forecast sticks with the rest of the
guidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous
advisory.

With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this
is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes in June
in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the
satellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second
category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached
that threshold on July 1.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
Marine layer in the NE half of the DC 'burbs kept us from getting
the heavy convective rain in the WSW half. Water rescues in Mont Co, near Potomac but nothing here in PG this time (6/11 eve). Yesterday was much much worse with houses not near streams overwhelmed by surface water and many roads 6"+ deep requiring many more water rescues.

Yesterday's event in PG CO was very similar to the July 4, 2004 flash flood which also occurred from innocuous looking morning convection which back built and spread out. That event dropped about twice as much total liquid.. same totals over double the area (and it also flooded my house)
Wow, this is one tiny storm; it reminds me a lot of Andrew.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
449. flsky
My problem with rainy season is that it mostly occurs up the spine of the state. The coasts see less of it and the east coast the least of all. Yesterday was great - thunder, lightning, the whole show. Should happen again today, but then it goes back to the familiar pattern.

Quoting 404. StormWx:



Cool photos. Yep the rainy season is in full force and has been since late May, when it officially started. Expect this until October when it will officially end :o)
Today's blog: "Cristina is headed away from Mexico, and it is unlikely that any watches or warnings will be required for this storm."

But I feel sorry for the folks on Isla Socorro -- they're going to need socorro soon. It looks like the island is in the sights of Cristina and if it continues on it's present path the eye will likely pass directly over the island. I hope they're boarded up!
451. 1344
Soccoro Island has only 250 people. They are use to hurricanes.