WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Cyclone Irina kills 72 on Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on March 07, 2012

Heavy rains from Tropical Cyclone Irina have killed 72 people on Madagascar and left 70,000 homeless, according to news reports. Irina never reached hurricane strength, but dumped heavy rains on the island over an extended period, February 29 - March 2. The area affected was remote, so the reports of the disaster only today reached the outside world. Irina is the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2012 thus far, and the second deadly storm to affect the island in recent weeks; Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island two weeks ago as a Category 3 storm, killing 35 and leaving 240,000 homeless. Irina is expected to dissipate over cold waters southwest of Madagascar over the next day.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Irina over Madagascar at 07:15 UTC March 1, 2012. At the time, Irina was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The system that caused all of that rain in Sydney is located over extreme SE Australia today.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Pretty good cell heading for Newcastle.


Not really. it's on the northern side of the low so it's pretty dry.


click image for loop
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The system that caused all of that rain in Sydney is located over extreme SE Australia today.

Yup!!

Click image for loop
WOW!! Likely these totals will be much higher than what is being depicted by the HPC.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
WOW!! Likely these totals will be much higher than what is being depicted by the HPC.


Wow.

Drought Buster?

Hmmm.

I think so.
RitaEvac.

Refer to Post 504.

How does that look!!!!????

You happy!!??
Heavy rain coming ashore in Boca Raton. Been raining here off & on all night.

The Storm Prediction Center now lists 131 filtered tornado reports for last Friday alone, and 190 for the entire five-day outbreak sequence from 2/28 through 3/3 (219 unfiltered). Applying the standard 15% rejection rate, then, that's roughly 111 tornadoes for Friday alone, and 161 over the five days. The final tally may not be as high as those, but, still, pretty incredible.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE for most of the CONUS for the next 6-10 days. Wow.

Quoting KeyWestSun:

Wow.

Drought Buster?

Hmmm.

I think so.


Yeah, that's an image you never see during a La-Nina winter across the South. It's best they get it now before the Thermal Ridge builds in from the SW US.
Boynton Inlet looking north. Really choppy out on the waterways today.

Looks like Texas will get rain that will help with the drought.But as the saying always goes "sometimes you can have to much of a good thing".
Good Morning. With all of the weather related issues so far over the past several months, including the recent destruction from the tornado outbreak and storms in the pacific basin and other parts, I am hoping that the Solar flare activity predicted today and tomorrow does not cause any major disruption. Seems like is is getting harder lately to get a break from Mother Nature................
Namibia~ A storm devastated the Okakwiyu Village in the Onayena Constituency late Monday night and uprooted trees and blew off rooftops, while some houses were ruined after trees fell on them. At least nine trees near the home of Tomas Uulumbu, Headmen of Okakwiyu, were uprooted. Four other neighbours also had their trees uprooted and homesteads partly destroyed as roofs were blown off. Other buildings collapsed when trees fell on them. Krista Anna Uulumbu, the headman’s wife, said it all happened on Monday evening, around mid-night and they were already sleeping. “It all started with rain, which only lasted for a short while. A few moments later, bright lightning accompanied by a heavy thunderstorm struck. After that all we saw was darkness everywhere … “Because we were scared, we did not go outside. We were only woken up in the morning by villagers that came to report about damage to their houses. We then realised that seven marula trees and other different types of trees in our yard had been uprooted,” said Krista Uulumbu. Uulumbu said this was the first time that Okakwiyu had experienced a natural disaster of this magnitude.


Quoting StormTracker2K:


Met him several times! Really cool guy and he's from Melbourne,FL.


We were friends in High School. Had alot of classes together.
Quoting Skyepony:
Namibia~ A storm devastated the Okakwiyu Village in the Onayena Constituency late Monday night and uprooted trees and blew off rooftops, while some houses were ruined after trees fell on them. At least nine trees near the home of Tomas Uulumbu, Headmen of Okakwiyu, were uprooted. Four other neighbours also had their trees uprooted and homesteads partly destroyed as roofs were blown off. Other buildings collapsed when trees fell on them. Krista Anna Uulumbu, the headman’s wife, said it all happened on Monday evening, around mid-night and they were already sleeping. “It all started with rain, which only lasted for a short while. A few moments later, bright lightning accompanied by a heavy thunderstorm struck. After that all we saw was darkness everywhere … “Because we were scared, we did not go outside. We were only woken up in the morning by villagers that came to report about damage to their houses. We then realised that seven marula trees and other different types of trees in our yard had been uprooted,” said Krista Uulumbu. Uulumbu said this was the first time that Okakwiyu had experienced a natural disaster of this magnitude.




We were friends in High School. Had alot of classes together.


Hi Skye, did you get any rain last evening?
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Wow.

Drought Buster?

Hmmm.

I think so.

We still need more, and areas out to the west (hill country) need it desperately still. This rain, if the forecast verifies, will be great for the reservoirs, though.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hi Skye, did you get any rain last evening?


I meant to mention that. 0.17" total so far. I see some showers pulling together & moving west toward shore already.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Wow.

Drought Buster?

Hmmm.

I think so.
That also goes with huge floods. If a very dry area gets a large ammount of rain in a short ammount of time its just asken for trouble.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 8 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Irina (991 hPa) located at 29.5S 40.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
60 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 29.7S 39.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 29.7S 38.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 29.2S 36.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 25.8S 35.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

System drifts slowly westwards and is expected to keep on shifting slowly globally west northwestwards then westwards until Saturday morning on the northern edge of a weak mid level ridge (slower timing in regard of previous forecast). Beyond, high pressures located over South Africa will steer the system north northwestwards. Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). Wind-shear should weaken, as system would lie under an upper level anticyclone, and might remain very weak until Friday afternoon. However, very slow motion on weak oceanic heat content might limit system intensity at the moderate tropical storm stage. Northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to increase again Friday night and system is therefore expected to weaken slightly before its landfall that is forecast on Sunday between Maputo and Inhambane.

Inhabitants of the potential landfall area should closely monitor the evolution of Irina within the next few days.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE KOJI-JONI (13-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 8 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (984 hPa) located at 16.6S 89.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
20-25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.4S 87.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.0S 84.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 20.2S 81.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.9S 79.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm Koji has been renamed Koji-Joni after crossing longitude 90°E (thus leaving the area of responsibility of TCWC Perth to enter the area of responsibility of RSMC Reunion). This is a consequence of a new procedure adopted in 2010 for the southwest Indian Ocean basin. While the principle of moving towards not renaming named storms coming from the southeast Indian Ocean has been agreed upon, as an interim phase it has been decided to append a hyphenated name from the southwest Indian Ocean naming list to the existing name of the system moving from the southeast Indian Ocean.

System has progressively organize within the last 24 hours hours. It is expected to keep on tracking globally west southwestwards on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures belt. Over this forecast track, easterly wind shear is expected to keep on existing aloft and intensity variations are expected. From Saturday, system is expected to recurve southwards towards a transiting mid-latitude trough and after a temporarily sheared relax, is expected within Sunday to undergo a new north northwesterly vertical wind shear constraint. System should therefore clearly weaken and its remnants should then been steered westwards by trade winds flow.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Boynton Inlet looking north. Really choppy out on the waterways today.

Cool pic. Thanks for posting it. I miss home.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
162 hours out:



The major outbreak has now exited the long-range, and is now in the medium-range.

Have to admit it looks a good bit more impressive than the last time I saw it. Thanks for the updates.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080859
SPC AC 080859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PREDICTABILITY PERSISTS OVER THE DETAILED EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IN THE
CNTRL CONUS...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW AND SWRN CANADA. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS OVER THE
WRN GULF COAST TO THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A N/NEWD EXPANDING
WARM SECTOR. IT IS PROBABLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST MARGINAL
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ACCOMPANY THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ON SUN/MON D4-5. STILL...GIVEN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL
PREDICTABILITY ISSUES...A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE AREA CANNOT
BE RELIABLY IDENTIFIED ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 03/08/2012
Quoting RTLSNK:
Here is close up photo of the Austrailian Wolf Spiders.
Both photos were taken by Reuters/Daniel Munoz March 6th in the town of Wagga Wagga, New South Wales.

You couldn't pay me enough to get that close, to that farm, to take that photo. :)

I would. I love spiders. I had huge ones outside my window for years and would name them. They were Banana Spiders and could grow the size of a mans hand.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That also goes with huge floods. If a very dry area gets a large ammount of rain in a short ammount of time its just asken for trouble.

Actually, the drought isn't surface-based any longer - the surface soil is pretty good. The drought is in the subsurface soil and the lakes now - both are MUCH below normal. What the area needs the most is about an inch to inch and a half per day for a week. Not enough for flooding (guidance is about 2-3" for flooding potential), but enough to get some deep, soaking rains, and solid runoff into the lakes.
morning all.

Quoting RTLSNK:
Here is an interesting weather related news item.

On Yahoo news this morning there was an article from the Reuters News Service about the flooding in parts of Australia. Because of the rising flood waters, thousands of Wolf Spiders have fled their normal ground areas into farms and ranches on higher ground.

The white stuff you see all over this Austrailian farm is not snow. It's Wolf Spider Webs.

I wonder if Wallmart sells flame thrower units?



*dies* This is two days in a row that i come to this blog and have to stifle the urge to scream like a little girl.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Wow.

Drought Buster?

Hmmm.

I think so.


I sure as hell am happy! That is fantastic. Looks like we have some flooding on the way. I wonder how soon they will issue Flood Watches.
Here just to the -near South of Houston I am not seeing the Fire Ant nests built up yet but the Crawdad chimney's are very high-wonder which natural indicator in correct.
Quoting fireflymom:
Here just to the -near South of Houston I am not seeing the Fire Ant nests built up yet but the Crawdad chimney's are very high-wonder which natural indicator in correct.


I would go with the crawdads lol. Fire ants usually don't start doing that until it is to late (from my experience). Last time we had a significant flood here all the ants were floating around in the water in huge groups.
Those nests are designed to break free and float to ensure colony survival.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I would go with the crawdads lol. Fire ants usually don't start doing that until it is to late (from my experience). Last time we had a significant flood here all the ants were floating around in the water in huge groups.

hey, what do ya know. stinktube hasnt updated my channel yet!
i bees back l8r