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Tropical Atlantic Uneventful / Tropical Storm Rachel No Threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Atlantic Basin Hostile to Tropical Cyclone Formation

The weak disturbance that was INVEST 96L is no longer of any significance as it became overwhelmed by both drier and stable air along with increased wind shear. What’s left of the disturbance has turned N/NE.

Although there are 3 other tropical Waves in the Atlantic basin – none pose any threat of development – and no cyclone formations are expected or forecast by the more reliable models for the next 7 days.

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL COULD BRING RAINS TO BAJA

In the East Pacific, Tropical Storm RACHEL is located near 19°N/116°W or some 725NM SW of the southern tip of Baja. The storm intensified some yesterday, with sustained winds now around 55Kts, with some models – along with NHC – now forecasting the system to intensify to just under Hurricane intensity within 12-24 hrs before it begins to weaken rapidly after 48 hrs. Based on my analysis of SAT imagery and trends – it appears a bit unlikely RACHEL will intensify significantly - but regardless, the longer range period will see Rachel weaken rapidly as it moves slowly N/NW or even N/NE at 7Kts into increasingly drier, stable air with increased wind shear.

The GFS has backed off a bit on tracking the remnants of RACHEL to Baja – but whether it spins down to a mere swirl near Baja, or to one just North or west of its current location – the storm will have no impact at all on land.



CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: This mornings overview of the Tropical Atlantic (and East Pacific) shows the remnants of INVEST 96L in the mid Atlantic – actually to the northeast of yesterdays location. An active Tropical Wave from along the western shore of the Yucatan southward into the Pacific is westbound at 10Kts, while a second wave in the east central Caribbean is also westbound at about 10Kts. The only other definable wave is off the west coast of Africa and is drifting westward. None of these Atlantic waves have any chance of developing either due to a very unfavorable upper air wind environment – or dry and stable air. Unlike yesterday when no waves were discernable over Africa, today, a Wave appears to have developed in central Africa within the ITCZ / Monsoonal TROF, and is westbound at 10Kts. This wave is not forecast to develop either.




Fig 2: The color enhanced IR (Infra-Red) image of Rachel shows a small but strong area of convection near the center of the storm, but a somewhat less organized appearance compared to yesterday - with another area of deep convection to the east of the storm center. It appears that there’s been some stable air intrusion from the south, but the environment surrounding the storm remains quite moist, and a weak ‘feeder band’ appears well to the south/southeast.




Fig 3: An early morning 89Ghz microwave pass highlights both the structure of the storm and the exact center. There appears to be a partial eye wall structure and a highly symmetrical spiral band structure – though the only deep convection is found in the eastern semi-circle.



Fig 4: The satellite derived high level wind flow shows a weak, but highly symmetrical outflow atop the storm center, though based on current imagery, and the magnitude of the outflow – intensification to near hurricane force seems unlikely to this observer. A light southeasterly wind shear well under 10Kts doesl, however, support some further deepening over the next 12 hours.




Fig 5: The mean steering current analysis from UW CIMSS for the EPAC show RACHEL in a very light, and variable wind flow area. The storm is still moving NNW, but a deep layered TROF over the West Coast may soon induce a south/southwest flow which would cause RACHEL to turn Northward for awhile until the western US TROF moves east by tomorrow. Most models then show the large High pressure ridge centered northeast of Hawaii building back eastward – turning RACHEL back to the WNW and then West by Monday as the storm rapidly dissipates, and is steered within the general low level trade wind flow.



Fig 6: The official NAVY Forecast track/intensity chart for Rachel (which normally utilizes the NHC forecast in this part of the world) follows the model consensus, and disregards the implied track provided by the GFS.

Jeff will be back on Monday.

Steve

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hmm...did they readjust the track of this storm? That went right over St. Petersburg as a hurricane.



The HURDAT re-analysis might have.
Quoting 451. hydrus:

I realize the GFS cranks up storms out of nothing, but October can be a bad month. The ground is very wet, and that could mean trouble for many folks.


Wow... Hope that doesn't happen.
Quoting 459. Climate175:




Looks like a huge storm! I doubt it will come to pass though! Sure hope not!
Quoting 500. HurriHistory:


Who says we can't get a cat.5 Hurricane in October. Remember Hurricane Wilma?

Can't handle another one like that Wilma was like a 160 miles from us and had me shaking , Post traumatic stress from Ivan the year before!
Most promising so far.
Quoting 470. MAweatherboy1:


We'll see. Obviously October is a favored time of year for the Caribbean, but I don't see anything big coming out of there this year. Generally you need a real pulse of the MJO to make anything substantial happen there anyways. And even if that happened, with the way shear has been this year, it might be a moot point. So it's something to keep an eye on, but I'm sure you'd agree something on the order of what the GFS shows is unlikely to impossible.


It's worth mentioning however, that the MJO is most favorable to Atlantic TC genesis when it is to the east of the Atlantic not directly over it because of the atmosphere being pre-conditioned in the wake of the MJO pulse, weaker upper level westerly wind shear, mixed Kelvin-Rossby Structure inducing favorable Eq RWs that propagate on spatial scales of AEWs & incipient TD-type disturbances, among other things. Sure for now we can conclude the GFS is a bit overdone, however, rising pressures in the wake of a deep trough that will move into the eastern US by this time next week will help incubate any system that tries to get going underneath in association with Columbian Monsoon Heat Low. However, unfavorable competition with the eastern Pacific is almost inevitable in such a set-up and especially given how active the season has been thus far, currently nearing the top 10 most active seasons (in terms of ACE) since 1971, and climatologically speaking we still have ~16% of the Eastern Pacific season to go, it may be just enough time to attain 200 points of ACE and reach the top 5 all-time most active yrs on record...


Shelf cloud from earlier over Ft Green, Hardee County, FL. Paul Dellegatto, of FOX 13 Tampa, posts a lot of interesting weather pictures on his fb page. Been some ominous looking clouds lately in FL.

October can be a bad month for Florida.

Another terrible October Hurricane for Florida.
Another year of great TS/HC activity on the LA/MA/AL/ FL gulf coast, in other words none! Will take that any time.. Those that wish it was a otherwise, can, well, I can't really say where they can put it in a certain part of their anatomy.
Quoting 510. HurriHistory:

Another terrible October Hurricane for Florida.

Ha, was just looking at that one; what an interesting track. FL is definitely no stranger to October hurricanes.
Quoting 508. opal92nwf:




i bet the surge was bad for that one
Hey guys anyone see the 18Z GFS lol it's funny

However it's starting to become believeable it's moving down the time line before it's was stuck in the 300hrs+ time range then it's gone down to the 264hrs+ range now in the 192-204hrs+ range if this continues down to 180hrs and 120hrs we should really pay attention

We must remember this time of year we should expect exactly what GFS is showing for OCT-NOV timeframe
Quoting HurriHistory:

October can be a bad month for Florida.

SEPT-OCT-NOV is a really bad time for Cayman
Quoting 510. HurriHistory:


Another terrible October Hurricane for Florida.



talk about a vary odd track there
Quoting 444. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wonder if rainfall like this coincides with a hurricane strike like the GFS is showing? Whatever forms down in the Caribbean would tend to want to follow the path of least resistance and over areas that have seen tremendous rainfall. Florida and the Carolina's.


I don't really know, its hard to say, I do know flooding would be terrible if a hurricane made landfall on the west coast of Florida anytime soon, the ground is completely water logged down there, my parents neighborhood has had standing water in it for 40 hours, it rained very heavy today again before it could even drain again from yesterday's drencher. Last I checked they had at least another 1.50 today, but it might have ended up being more than that, I'll have to find out tomorrow from them what the 3 day total from Friday into today was.

Imagine a rain event like Debby on top of saturated grounds, it would be insane. Worse if it was a strong hurricane too, devastating surge flooding near the coast and devastating inland rainfall flooding. Let's just not even dwell on that subject, too depressing lol.

October is the month to get strong hurricanes on the west coast of Florida climatologically. I doubt it will happen this year given the way the season has been though, the first step to getting a hurricane in the west Caribbean is cyclogenesis, and it feels like forever since there has been such in the west Caribbean.
MJO missing causing the lack of vertical instability the main player in last two season or is there some deeper reasoning into why we've seen the MDR dead as we've seen in the last two decades? Has a strengthened AB High caused sinking air to become the dominating feature? Looking at the East Pacific and the MDR vertical instability is the real player in an active or dead season. One of the only places on Earth that wasn't above average for temps was the Continental. Surely this has some correlation in the hurricane season.
Looks like all the rain that we were expected to get in Tallahassee is focusing in on Tampa bay, watch out. The shortwave should be producing rainfall up here as well, but it looks like the diffluent flow aloft is displaced further south in the gulf than model guidance earlier anticipated. Basically the shortwave will help to enhance lift in that atmosphere over Central and North FL tomorrow, expect heavy rain to start near the west coast off the gulf, and spread inland. Orlando to Daytona will be back in the localized flooding risk as well due to the west flow ahead of the approaching short wave.
Quoting 370. nwobilderburg:



check out this low off of Alaska


I certainly like to see that, will help to establish a stronger meridional SST gradient in the north-northeastern Pacific, & baroclinicity that should help in cranking out more vigorous mid-latitude cyclones that lead to more stratospheric upwelling (Polar Vortex Disruption, i.e. more high latitude blocking) via mountain torque events & pronounced Rossby Wave breaking into the Rockies in western North America, thus also leading to a more classic +PNA pattern. Usually is a good sign in the months preceding winter to have strong gradients in SST in the North Pacific, such years often end up w/ rapid advances in Siberian snow cover in October (High SAI) that shows robust correspondence to the following winter's AO...

Global SSTs in Sept preceding the years w/ the largest increases in Eurasian Snowfall from September to the end of October, note the pronounced SST gradient near 40N in the Gulf of Alaska (it's a fine line when it comes to SST anomalies, warm SSTs in the GOA don't always= -EPO & blocking over Alaska as we observed last winter, nor does an expansion of the cold pool further south & east lead to more baroclinicity, in fact, such a set-up would be conducive for the classic -PDO Western US trough & stronger than normal Alaskan Vortex as we observed in the blowtorch winter of 2011-12)


Additionally, the cool tongues of water on the eastern side of Asia & North America around the critical latitude of 40N is favorable to -AO winters, as it forces the mid-latitude jet to extend its nose further south, hence you may often see blocking in a set-up like this as it more efficiently decelerates the winter time mid-latitude stratospheric jet with intrusions of lower ozone rich air from the tropics that can cause major displacement of the polar night jet & thus can dissolve or split the polar vortex & its associated vorticity lobes...

Top 10 + vs - AO El Nino winters since 1950, courtesy of Anthony Masiello
Strongly suggest reading his post below on "Why are Winter Outlooks for El Nino so similar?"
Link



Here's a comparison of those same El Nino winters now using global SSTs that has a lead time that is in front of the SAI in October. Interestingly enough, the Kurioshio-Oyashio Extension east of Japan as well as the Labrador Current east of Newfoundland are warmer than normal in the summers & even preceding springs ahead of El Nino winters, which can lend hints at how the AO & even NAO will play out several months in advance.

Top 10 +AO El Ninos - Top 10 -AO El Ninos Sep-Nov SSTs


Top 5 years show an eastward extension of relatively warmer water in the KOE well into the Gulf of Alaska (hence also a weaker SST gradient in the far northeastern Pacific, driving home the point that warm water in this area of the world doesn't necessarily favor a lot of blocking over Alaska (-EPO), it's all about the dynamical structure of the SST anomalies & forcing from atmospheric "white noise"...



Additionally, I've been trying to look @ physical mechanism to link warm KOEs, ENSO, & the AO in subsequent winters & intriguingly I've discovered that the time following the conclusion of the last multi yr El Nino event may play a role in determining the likelihood of strong +/- AOs in El Nino Winters. Since this yr is about 10 years from the end of last multi yr warm ENSO/El Nino event that occurred in 2002-04, perhaps it is safe to conclude along w/ other factors beginning to come into play that a "strong" -AO El Nino winter may be on tap...



For fun, I decided to extrapolate the SSTs in the tropical Pacific back 3 years in advance of the +AO El Nino Winters vs -AO winters, & a bit to my surprise, warmer SSTs prevailed thru the duration of this time period...

1 yr in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies

2 yrs in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies


3 yrs in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies

Quoting 520. Webberweather53:



I certainly like to see that, will help to establish a stronger meridional SST gradient in the north-northeastern Pacific, & baroclinicity that should help in cranking out more vigorous mid-latitude cyclones that lead to more stratospheric upwelling (Polar Vortex Disruption, i.e. more high latitude blocking) via mountain torque events & pronounced Rossby Wave breaking into the Rockies in western North America, thus also leading to a more classic +PNA pattern. Usually is a good sign in the months preceding winter to have strong gradients in SST in the North Pacific, such years often end up w/ rapid advances in Siberian snow cover in October (High SAI) that shows robust correspondence to the following winter's AO...

Global SSTs in Sept preceding the years w/ the largest increases in Eurasian Snowfall from September to the end of October, note the pronounced SST gradient near 40N in the Gulf of Alaska (it's a fine line when it comes to SST anomalies, warm SSTs in the GOA don't always= -EPO & blocking over Alaska as we observed last winter, nor does an expansion of the cold pool further south & east lead to more baroclinicity, in fact, such a set-up would be conducive for the classic -PDO Western US trough & stronger than normal Alaskan Vortex as we observed in the blowtorch winter of 2011-12)


Additionally, the cool tongues of water on the eastern side of Asia & North America around the critical latitude of 40N is favorable to -AO winters, as it forces the mid-latitude jet to extend its nose further south, hence you may often see blocking in a set-up like this as it more efficiently decelerates the winter time mid-latitude stratospheric jet with intrusions of lower ozone rich air from the tropics that can cause major displacement of the polar night jet & thus can dissolve or split the polar vortex & its associated vorticity lobes...

Top 10 + vs - AO El Nino winters since 1950, courtesy of Anthony Masiello
Strongly suggest reading his post below on "Why are Winter Outlooks for El Nino so similar?"
Link



Here's a comparison of those same El Nino winters now using global SSTs that has a lead time that is in front of the SAI in October. Interestingly enough, the Kurioshio-Oyashio Extension east of Japan as well as the Labrador Current east of Newfoundland are warmer than normal in the summers & even preceding springs ahead of El Nino winters, which can lend hints at how the AO & even NAO will play out several months in advance.

Top 10 +AO El Ninos - Top 10 -AO El Ninos Sep-Nov SSTs


Top 5 years show an eastward extension of relatively warmer water in the KOE well into the Gulf of Alaska (hence also a weaker SST gradient in the far northeastern Pacific, driving home the point that warm water in this area of the world doesn't necessarily favor a lot of blocking over Alaska (-EPO), it's all about the dynamical structure of the SST anomalies & forcing from atmospheric "white noise"...



Additionally, I've been trying to look @ physical mechanism to link warm KOEs, ENSO, & the AO in subsequent winters & intriguingly I've discovered that the time following the conclusion of the last multi yr El Nino event may play a role in determining the likelihood of strong +/- AOs in El Nino Winters. Since this yr is about 10 years from the end of last multi yr warm ENSO/El Nino event that occurred in 2002-04, perhaps it is safe to conclude along w/ other factors beginning to come into play that a "strong" -AO El Nino winter may be on tap...



For fun, I decided to extrapolate the SSTs in the tropical Pacific back 3 years in advance of the +AO El Nino Winters vs -AO winters, & a bit to my surprise, warmer SSTs prevailed thru the duration of this time period...

1 yr in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies

2 yrs in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies


3 yrs in advance of +AO - -AO El Nino Winters SST anomalies




Obviously, after reading this post, it's not hard to understand why I'm a little bit excited to see colder than normal water developing within the KOE & east of Newfoundland...
Quoting 510. HurriHistory:


Another terrible October Hurricane for Florida.


I'm diggin' that track, bro. That southwestward hook is very aclimatological for October.
NO OCTOBER HURRICANES...DO U HEAR ME???
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
453 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEKEND HAVE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL RIVER LEVEL RISE
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR. THE RIVER HAS REACHED MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORCAST TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK...
INCREASING THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
THE RIVER.

FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER, INCLUDING ASTOR, MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

FLC069-127-292053-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FL.W.0001.140929T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0000Z.140929T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.NR/
453 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014


* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

&&
Quoting 523. KoritheMan:



I'm diggin' that track, bro. That southwestward hook is very aclimatological for October.


Scott would be urging us to build an ark if that was forecast, even 384 hours out.
Quoting 525. GTstormChaserCaleb:
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
453 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR...

HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEKEND HAVE RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL RIVER LEVEL RISE
ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR. THE RIVER HAS REACHED MINOR FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORCAST TO REMAIN NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK...
INCREASING THE THREAT TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG
THE RIVER.

FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER, INCLUDING ASTOR, MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.

FLC069-127-292053-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FL.W.0001.140929T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.140929T0000Z.140929T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.NR/
453 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014


* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN LOW
LYING AREAS ALONG THE RIVER.

&&


I was at the ZOO in Sanford today and the ZOO was flooded because the ST Johns was so high. Nearly 14" of rain here in Longwood so far for September.
Quoting 526. GatorWX:



Scott would be urging us to build an ark if that was forecast, even 384 hours out.


Hopefully comparable to Noah's, even. I'd like to at least be renowned for something.
Remember my blog is always open, express your opinions about the upcoming winter. :)
Quoting 529. Andrebrooks:

Remember my blog is always open, express your opinions about the upcoming winter. :)


It'll be cold somewhere.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It'll be cold somewhere.
Like the eastern half of the country. :)
Well so much for the front moving thru FL. Not surprised as this would be identical to what we saw this past week. Perfect set up for torrential rains across FL going well into October it appears now.

Nothing like the annual October change in the models incorporating that lower pressure in the WCarib to bring out the exuberance.
Let's remember the typical May-June beginning of monsoonal flow pick-up by the GFS and other models, this year again we had doom384 forecasted...and the typical July-Aug beginning of Cape Verde season, which again this year came through in forecasting doom384 as we begin this climatological fall pattern.
.
Steady rain here on the NW side of Orlando
Da dun cchhhhhhhh, lol

Quoting 531. Andrebrooks:

Like the eastern half of the country. :)


meh

Look out Cuba, here it comes.
Quoting HurriHistory:

Look out Cuba, here it comes.

Starting to become interesting I want to see how this looks on Wed then on Fri then on Sun
539. BDAwx
The area of low pressure near Bermuda holding its own with pressures ~1012mb and convection apparently organizing on radar. An interesting feature regardless of development - also one of at least three mesoscale lows to form near Bermuda this summer.
You have to admit though the extreme persistence is becoming somewhat worrysome











Here was just a few out of many during the past few days

If this was to follow through Jamaica Cayman Cuba needs o watch out
Quoting 540. wunderkidcayman:

You have to admit though the extreme persistence is becoming somewhat worrysome


Welcome to October, the new September for hurricane season.
AOI in Bermuda area % upped to 20% I'd expect to see Invest tagged on it soon if not now
Quoting Dakster:

Lol
Quoting 543. wunderkidcayman:


Lol


it only makes sense if you believe in global warming/climate change, right?
Quoting Dakster:


it only makes sense if you believe in global warming/climate change, right?


No because I don't really believe the global warming climate change fully yet but it still makes sense

Anyway
If this does happen I guess I'd start prepping later during the week ahead or early weekend
Quoting 539. BDAwx:

The area of low pressure near Bermuda holding its own with pressures ~1012mb and convection apparently organizing on radar. An interesting feature regardless of development - also one of at least three mesoscale lows to form near Bermuda this summer.


That is interesting. Haven't paid much attention lately to the Atlantic aside from a quick glance.






It's rather shallow and sheared, but at least it's not purely hypothetical.
Quoting 537. HurriHistory:


Look out Cuba, here it comes.


When it comes into the 00hr let us know.
Quoting Drakoen:


When it comes into the 00hr let us know.

No at 00hrs it would be a hurricane over Cuba more like let us know at 96-120hrs that would be formation time and everyone else could prep for it

I guess we could wait till we get an invest

Anyway I'm out
Quoting 545. wunderkidcayman:



No because I don't really believe the global warming climate change fully yet but it still makes sense

Anyway
If this does happen I guess I'd start prepping later during the week ahead or early weekend


I believe that the climate of the Earth is changing. It has in its entire history and nothing I see makes me think it will stop. Now the reason behind the change is another story.
The 18Z GFS would be exciting, and as I mentioned before, need Fay to match 1986's six storms, lest we have the dullest hurricane season since 1983, which had just 4 storms.

The new 0Z GFS 2 week fantasy storm is less exciting. Some day, maybe this year, maybe not, a 300 hour plus GFS forecast hurricane will verify. 4 runs a day, about 180 days per year in hurricane season, it'll be like a billion chimpanzees banging away on typewriters and one of them writing Shakespeare. It will happen.
Quoting 546. GatorWX:



That is interesting. Haven't paid much attention lately to the Atlantic aside from a quick glance.






It's rather shallow and sheared, but at least it's not purely hypothetical.


GFS not impressed, but it doesn't look completely awful.

0Z GFS and 12Z Euro may agree on a late season Cape Verde system trying to do something. GFS 500 mb pattern, it would get nowhere near North America, but it does close a weak surface low. New 0Z Euro, looks like it is similar at hour 192.


Why a CV storm would form in October when none have quite been able to get over the hill during the Cape Verde season, I don't know. That'd be a depression, anyway.

Quoting 540. wunderkidcayman:

You have to admit though the extreme persistence is becoming somewhat worrysome











Here was just a few out of many during the past few days

If this was to follow through Jamaica Cayman Cuba needs o watch out


GFS was insistent on almost every run for a week in July that a Western Caribbean TC was 6 to 8 days away from forming. Model consistency is usually a good thing, but the GFS is good at being consistently wrong, especially at long range.

That said, see comment below, may not be this year, but someday, a 2 week GFS cane forecast will verify. It could be this year. ¿Quien sabes?
Ed - Let me know when more than one global model picks up on it.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
334 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FLC031-290830-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0265.140929T0734Z-140929T0830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
DUVAL FL-
334 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 430 AM EDT

* AT 330 AM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY
RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE OCEANWAY AREA. AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN IN THIS AREA IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE OCEANWAY AREA THROUGH 430
AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
GFS is constantly saying a Miami area hit,run after run,kinda scary but its way too far out in time to be believable huh
Mornin' Largo.

Maybe some sprinkles or light rain for us this am.





-6 Hrs


Present




Doubt it'll ever develop a fully warm core, but whatever, I'm bored!

Precip across the state yesterday.


Flood warnings for the Mayakka, Manatee, Little Manatee, Alafia and Peace Rivers and a pretty large area of rain yesterday over their watersheds. These warnings were in place before the rains.
Quoting 556. LargoFl:

GFS is constantly saying a Miami area hit,run after run,kinda scary but its way too far out in time to be believable huh


It can't be scary when it's not going to happen.
earthquake in Peru
breaking story BBC News

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-29406 622



Hmmm
Quoting 557. GatorWX:

Mornin' Largo.

Maybe some sprinkles or light rain for us this am.




good morning, yeah guess today will be wet again later on...
563. MahFL
We had a big downpour here in the early hours of the night, woke us up, in Orange Park. One of my potted plants got blown over, though it does seem a bit top heavy and unbalanced.
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH SOME CONVECTION 30+ MILES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TODAY...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH
GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE IMPACT OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DELAY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WE
SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2
PM...ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINS
SUFFICIENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...WITH LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER 5 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 11
PM GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER THE NATURE COAST...WILL
KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLACE HERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&
Quoting 562. LargoFl:

good morning, yeah guess today will be wet again later on...


GFS says better chance for you than me. Through 72 hrs:



Also, it develops a little low in the Big Bend region and slides it across the state, so that will likely be our best shot. Other than that, I think the storms will stay more inland than yesterday as the flow begins to switch from sse to w.
back at us after three days of no recordable rain we got flood watch today. e.cen.fl. watching the bermuda system gfs a few days ago had it moving towards the upper atlantic coast.
good morning!
so, my ceiling has started to crumble. I guess all this rain showed us where the leak was :/
and more coming today, i guess... le sigh
yeah gator..looks like I-4 northward with the heavy rains later this evening...................................
Quoting 569. darbyderp:

good morning!
so, my ceiling has started to crumble. I guess all this rain showed us where the leak was :/
and more coming today, i guess... le sigh
yes around here and tampa several roof's collapsed since friday...amazing amount of rain we've been getting, almost daily heavy rains.
97L is cute enough to get a floater already...

Possible typhoon threat for Japan.




"Peak intensity has been increased to 125 knots at tau 120 with rapid
intensification a distinct possibility"

Seems to be some lack of confidence in the model solutions with this one past 72 hrs, for now.

"In the extended period, model uncertainty increases due to a
more complex steering environment created by an approaching
midlatitude shortwave trough. Dynamic models and ensemble solutions
are splitting into two distinct clusters. The first, favoring a west-
northwestward track through tau 120. The second cluster indicates a
sharper re-curve scenario northwestward to northward by tau 120."
574. beell
Ya'll could try looking at another 14-day model besides the GFS...
Quoting 574. beell:

Ya'll could try looking at another 14-day model besides the GFS...



GFS is money! ;)
576. beell
Quoting 575. GatorWX:



GFS is money! ;)


At 14 days, your money!
Quoting GatorWX:


GFS says better chance for you than me. Through 72 hrs:



Also, it develops a little low in the Big Bend region and slides it across the state, so that will likely be our best shot. Other than that, I think the storms will stay more inland than yesterday as the flow begins to switch from sse to w.



After a few days with a S.E. flow (our normal rainy season flow), which gave me 3" of rain over the weekend, we've switched back to a westerly flow with the low moving across the northern part of the state.

I'm hoping we can switch back to the summer pattern for a few weeks before the rainy season shuts down for the season.

Fort Myers only averages 2.88" in October and 1.96" in Nov. So the dry air will start making it down into Florida pretty soon.
We'll move into a frontal type precipitation which favors northern Florida.
Usually the fronts are pretty dry by the time they get to S. Florida.

97L
Quoting 510. HurriHistory:


Another terrible October Hurricane for Florida.


My Aunt, and Cousin were aboard the Steamer St. Lucie in 1906 when it came apart in Biscayne Bay. My Uncle, who Mrs. Pierce was on the way to visit, was Captain of the Wanderer. The Peerless, which picked up the survivors, had the Brother in law of the Pierces aboard as the Steam Engineer.

Excerpt from the "Golden Era of Steam boating on the Indian River 1877-1900" by Fred Hopwood


1906 A hurricane hit the Florida Keys and 130 men were killed when 120 miles-per-hour wind struck construction sites of Henry Flagler’s Overseas Railroad. Long Key was particularly hard hit. Captain Steve Bravo, a legendary Indian River steam boat captain who had taken a position with Flagler’s company, was one of the individuals caught in the storm. He was the captain of the St. Lucie, which hauled men and supplies to work camps. Here is a description of the 1906 hurricane from Fred A. Hopwood’s book, The Golden Age of Steamboating on the Indian River (Cocoa: Florida Historical Society Press, Reprint Edition, 1998)
On October 17, 1906, the St. Lucie left the FEC's terminal dock on 5th Street and headed out of Biscayne Bay on an overnight trip to the Keys. Pushing a barge filled with fresh water for workers and carrying 120 passengers and crewmen, nothing appeared out of the ordinary and the trip was regarded by the St. Lucie's captain, Steve Bravo, as routine. So routine, in fact, that Bravo, having brought the steamer safely out of Biscayne Bay, turned command of the vessel over to the first mate, Robert Blair, and retired to his cabin for the night.
Unknown to Bravo, Blair, or FEC officials, a hurricane was battering the Keys and heading directly for Miami. At an inquiry hearing later, Bravo reported that there had been no reason to suspect that anything was out of the ordinary, although "The barometer was showing low, but not more than it had for the past two weeks." The St. Lucie's long and wide steel hull (122' by 24') was considered stable and safe in even stormy conditions. When the steamer encountered the first winds and rain of the hurricane's outer bands, no one was unduly alarmed.
At about three o'clock in the morning, Blair had Captain Bravo roused from his sleep. When the captain reached the upper deck, it was apparent that the steamer was caught in a gale, blowing out of the east. Little did Blair or Bravo realize that these winds were part of the counter-clockwise winds of a larger storm. As the barometer continued dropping, Captain Bravo decided to seek safe anchorage at Elliott's Key and to ride out the storm. Dropping anchor in seven feet of water on the leeward side of the island, Bravo felt that his boat was safe from the storm.
By daylight, however, hurricane strength winds were blowing, and Elliott's Key was under several feet of water. Waves were washing over the lower deck of the St. Lucie, and parts of the boat's superstructure were beginning to give way. Passengers and crewmen were ordered to don life jackets. Suddenly, about seven o'clock in the morning, the winds died out and the waves receded. Captain Bravo ordered the chief engineer to "get up a full head of steam so that the St. Lucie could make a run for it, if necessary."
Despite the lull in the storm, the barometer, which had dropped to a low 28.8 inches of mercury, indicated that there was more bad weather to come.
Second Officer J. W. Grant ordered two lifeboats lowered. Ten men climbed aboard to go to the aid of a schooner that tossed at anchor between the St. Lucie and the shore. Before the men could reach the ship, the lull ended and the storm resumed. The temporary reprieve had been the eye of the hurricane, which had passed directly over Elliott's Key. Suddenly 120 M.P.H. winds struck from the west. The men in the two lifeboats were swept ashore by the renewed winds. Caught in the thicket of mangrove trees along the shore, the men clung tenaciously to the roots and managed to ride out the fury of the storm safely.
On board the St. Lucie, matters quickly turned worse. Bravo ordered a lifeboat to be lowered into the tossing waves. He placed the steamer's only woman passenger, a Mrs. Pierce, and her six-year-old son aboard the boat and then ordered six crewmen to serve as oarsmen. Once released, the lifeboat was grabbed by the waves and hurled ashore, where it came to rest against a building wrecked by the hurricane. Mrs. Pierce, her son, and the six crewmen quickly grabbed hold of the building's structure, an act that saved their lives. [This was Yallahs Lizette Wallack Pierce, and Charles Leon Pierce, wife and son of Charles W. Pierce. mjb]
Within an hour, all hope for the St. Lucie was gone. The great steamer was being torn to pieces by the unrelenting winds and waves. Bravo reported to the inquiry board that, "We were fighting for our lives." Large pieces of the superstructure were hurled about like tiny matchsticks, and desperate crewmen struggled to find something to hang on to. It was a hopeless cause.
When the storm passed, nothing remained of the once-proud St. Lucie but debris floating on the surface of the placid water.
In Miami questions were immediately raised about the fate of the St. Lucie and its crew. The Miami Evening Record carried the banner headline, "Where is the St. Lucie?" The paper reported that, "Rumors have persisted that the St. Lucie had been overtaken by the storm and that she had gone down with all on board." The Miami Metropolis headlined its day-after edition, "Steamer St. Lucie is Reported Lost." J. C. Meredith, Flagler's chief engineer, gave credence to the story when he reported that he had traveled from the Keys to Miami on his boat, the Lotus, and had seen no sign of the St. Lucie. The barge the steamer had been pushing, however, was found by Meredith.
The question of the fate of the St. Lucie was answered when, on the following Saturday, the steamer Peerless arrived in Miami with fifty-eight badly battered and exhausted survivors. An additional twenty-five survivors had been ordered off the Peerless prior to its arrival in the city to assist the steamer Virginia collect the bodies of the less fortunate. When these weary survivors protested their impressment into service by the captain of the Virginia, he secured their cooperation only after threatening them with violence.
The Metropolis reported that "25 or more are dead, their bodies littering the shores and land of Elliott's Key." Several additional bodies were discovered in the vicinity of Soldier’s Key. The actual number of persons from the St. Lucie who died in the storm will never be known. Apparently no passenger manifest was kept, and within a few weeks, the public lost interest in the disaster. Miami newspapers, ever willing to cater to public interests, pursued the matter no further.
Although some individuals insist that Captain Bravo knew about the hurricane and recklessly proceeded into the storm, an investigation by federal maritime authorities cleared him of any wrongdoing. With no telegraph or telephone communications between Miami and Key West, there simply was no way for any skipper to know about the hurricane in advance.

Quoting 572. Skyepony:

97L is cute enough to get a floater already...


Quoting 576. beell:



At 14 days, your money!


Thanks beell! Mine's in the bank.


its look like hurricane sandy to me..
do we have invest 97L YET
584. beell


There's always this one, Skye. http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc14/ATL/97L.INVEST/ir/ge o/1km/LATEST.jpg

(take out the space in 'geo')
Looking like another wet day. Whose ready for the dry season? Me!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TODAY...MID LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT ACROSS NE FL WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE JAX METRO
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM THE WEST TO NORTH SIDE OF JAX WHERE MINOR FLOODING OF A FEW LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO COASTAL
SE GA THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF SOME LYING AREAS AS WELL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF
TO TRACK NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
NE FL COAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NE FL.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
358 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

COZ069>071-291800-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FR.Y.0003.140930T0800Z-140930T1400Z/
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
INCLUDING...CENTER...DEL NORTE...ALAMOSA...MONTE VISTA...
MANASSA...LA JARA...ANTONITO...SANFORD...SAN LUIS...
FORT GARLAND...BLANCA
358 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
.
* TEMPERATURES...30 TO 34 DEGREES...WITH A FEW READINGS TO AROUND
28F POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.

* IMPACT...ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS LEFT OUTDOOR MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT
OUTDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HODANISH
418 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.


DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING TODAY. THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND FOCUSES ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. TWO DAY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH FOUR TO SIX INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FLOODING TO
ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP IN YOUR AREA.
SMALLER CREEKS AND RIVERS ALREADY AT ELEVATED LEVELS MAY SEE RAPID
RISES OF WATER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA AND DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 TO 50 MPH. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WILL REMAIN NEAR OF JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE INTO TONIGHT. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
RIVER.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have become a little better organized
overnight and this morning. This system could become a subtropical
cyclone today before upper-level winds become unfavorable tonight
and Tuesday. This system is expected to move northwestward and then
northward during the next couple of days with increasing forward
speed. Regardless of development, the low will produce locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
592. MahFL
The broad low seems to be just south of Pensacola.

All news stations are warning people across E C FL for the potential of heavy flooding across the area the next couple of days maybe all week. Looks like some locations across C FL going to exceed 20" of rain this month.
Wow the GFS has 50's all the way down into C FL next week

Mr. Cold front is coming Friday,

O boy !!!

Quoting 595. StormTrackerScott:

All news stations are warning people across E C FL for the potential of heavy flooding across the area the next couple of days maybe all week. Looks like some locations across C FL going to exceed 20" of rain this month.
We were supposed to get 20 inch by last week. I need more rain!!
Quoting 596. SFLWeatherman:

Wow the GFS has 50's all the way down into C FL next week


wow that would be fantastic if it verifies
Quoting 595. StormTrackerScott:

All news stations are warning people across E C FL for the potential of heavy flooding across the area the next couple of days maybe all week. Looks like some locations across C FL going to exceed 20" of rain this month.
yeah and even more when that cold front hits this warm humid air next week whew...skeeters are loving this.
Altamonte Springs at Cranes Roost a report of 18.26" so far this month according to WFTV. Here in Longwood at my location 13.8".
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located just west of Bermuda have become a little better organized
overnight and this morning. This system could become a subtropical
cyclone today before upper-level winds become unfavorable tonight
and Tuesday. This system is expected to move northwestward and then
northward during the next couple of days with increasing forward
speed. Regardless of development, the low will produce locally heavy
rains and strong gusty winds over Bermuda through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.


its going to hit land in the northeast!
I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.

From CWG
Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.


Well the rest of the Country is experiencing Fall here in FL it is still very hot atleast in C & S FL. It was so hot & humid yesterday we had to leave the ZOO early yesterday as it was unbearable and all the standing water didn't help as the skeeters were on steroids.
Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.


Anything going on in DC? Boring time of year for most of the Country.
Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:



Anything going on in DC? Boring time of year for most of the Country.
Well all week it's suppose to be in the 70's and the mornings have been crisp.No real rain until Friday and Saturday.But by mid-month the pattern is suppose to be turning.


Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.

From CWG

Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.

From CWG



That is SO serene. thanks!
Quoting 610. indianrivguy:



That is SO serene. thanks!
Your welcome!.The sun rises are some of the best this time of year.You can go out early and catch them.Just make sure to wear a jacket or sweater.
Wet stuff, get your umbrella's ready. Hope FL can survive this lol.

We were supposed to get clobbered by rain here on the MS coast on Sunday. Watched it approach on radar off and on all day Saturday deciding whether to water the plants or not, then it just sat offshore and gave Mobile Bay and Daphne its usual drenching. I came out this morning and there was a very light blanket of water droplets on the truck....... Thats it.....
616. MahFL
Quoting 610. indianrivguy:



That is SO serene. thanks!


Cept for the 14 foot gator just under the surface waiting to eat you.....
Quoting 597. Patrap:

Mr. Cold front is coming Friday,

O boy !!!




True that! Supposed to be in the mid-60's for lows here Sunday, then clear and pleasant for the start of the upcoming week. Hope that verifies. Been hot and sticky with rain everyday lately! At least the nighttime lows have cooled since the peak of summer. 72 is quite a difference from 78-80. Sorry about your Saints btw. Tampa and NOLA tied for 2nd! Could be worse.
Fay?
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972014 09/29/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 49 55 60 56 49 40 35 29 25
V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 49 55 60 56 49 40 35 29 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 41 43 47 49 48 44 38 35 31 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 15 20 30 28 27 36 46 63 64 59 35 28 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -6 -3 -8 -7 -4 0 -7 -1
SHEAR DIR 294 298 315 314 306 275 257 241 226 236 262 289 269
SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.0 23.9 19.8 17.5 16.9 16.0 14.3
POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 127 126 115 98 77 70 69 68 66
ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 106 106 107 106 97 83 69 64 64 63 63
200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.6 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -56.2 -56.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.3
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 38 37 40 45 54 65 67 64 60 51 41 38 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 11 10 10 11 13 12 12
850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 16 10 21 42 45 40 9 -7 -14 -53 -12
200 MB DIV 1 4 1 10 30 32 20 39 36 18 2 -13 -6
700-850 TADV 0 3 5 4 0 12 18 14 0 -17 -1 3 12
LAND (KM) 1047 1007 968 946 873 736 549 436 269 168 59 -21 -34
LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.3 34.1 34.8 36.9 39.1 41.2 43.1 44.2 44.8 45.1 45.7
LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.5 65.7 65.6 65.6 64.5 62.5 60.5 59.5 59.6 60.7 62.3 64.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 9 12 13 11 8 4 6 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 11 10 12 13 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. -3. -13. -22. -26. -28. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 25. 30. 26. 19. 10. 5. -1. -5.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 09/29/14 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 09/29/14 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 09/29/2014 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
Quoting 617. GatorWX:



True that! Supposed to be in the mid-60's for lows here Sunday, then clear and pleasant for the start of the upcoming week. Hope that verifies. Been hot and sticky with rain everyday lately! At least the nighttime lows have cooled since the peak of summer. 72 is quite a difference from 78-80. Sorry about your Saints btw. Tampa and NOLA tied for 2nd! Could be worse.


Send it up here its 78 right now with a dewpoint of 77. The reason why your lows were so warm was the persistent SW flow all summer flow is now more SSE. Also don't get too excited about this frontal passage because it may not happen as many ensembles and the Euro stall it across Lake O then returns north as a big rain maker similar to last week. Not going to be a clean frontal passage as some are thinking on here.
97L Looking more organized.

97L is looking more impressive on the VIS satellite. With the hostile conditions in the MDR of the Atlantic for much of the 2014 hurricane season, it seems possible that something could spin up easier in the sub-tropics. We might get T.S. Fay or Sub T.S. Fay out of 97L!

Still would not rule out more storms possibly forming in the area of the W. Atlantic from the Bermuda area, southwestward ... later in the season. We still have October ahead of us! Who knows, even the hostile Caribbean might get a spin-up surprise storm form in October.

Interesting little feature 97L is. Could possibly get subtropical storm Fay.
Good Morning..

Florida residents I don't mind hearing about your weather..Its better than hearing about snow when it was still summer..
Been a fairly wet month for much of the Gulf side and Big Bend region, but overall, fairly normal for the eastern half of the state.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.


Man, the models did absolutely terrible with this event, from 80% yesterday, and 90% today with a flood watch and several inches of rain expected, yet there has been almost no rain at all over the entire forecast area.

This has been one of the most busted forecasts I've seen in a while. I think they should just drop the flood watch at this point, its not going to happen.

Its really strange because we have a very moist airmass, an upper trough in place, and a developing surface low, but rain won't materialize. Sometimes weather is weird.
Quoting 625. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

Florida residents I don't mind hearing about your weather..Its better than hearing about snow when it was still summer..


We appreciate your cooperation. You have permission to post about NC weather. :)

Quoting 610. indianrivguy:



That is SO serene. thanks!
Keep up on the estuary information you have been putting up. Good reading .
Quoting 622. StormTrackerScott:



Send it up here its 78 right now with a dewpoint of 77. The reason why your lows were so warm was the persistent SW flow all summer flow is now more SSE. Also don't get too excited about this frontal passage because it may not happen as many ensembles and the Euro stall it across Lake O then returns north as a big rain maker similar to last week. Not going to be a clean frontal passage as some are thinking on here.


We've averaged 74/83 here for the last week. I guess, now that I look at the averages for past month, it hasn't changed much. It's felt less humid at least. Avg low in Sept was 76, so, still two degrees! I'll take what I can get.
they weather lady on local abc station in tampa says the more clouds the less rain. its 9 am still overcast and cloudy here.. she even mentioned that with all the cloud cover/overcast it could decrease rain chances......but now as i type this the sun is peeking out
ncstorm is still obsessed.Some people are just so sad.Snow hasn't even been brought up lately.
The Atlantic Basin is one of the most variable Tropical Storm producers in the world

2014 continues to prove that the Atlantic Basin is one of the most variable hurricane and T.S. producers of the world.

The Atlantic basin can swing in either direction, based on all the variables ... from El Nino to La Nina! And more ....

7 named storms formed in 1994. 19 named storms were observed in 1995. 2 Years later, in 1997, only 7 named storms formed.


Although we had 9 named storms in the "slow" year of 2009, it actually ended with a surprise ... with powerful Hurricane Ida churning toward the US Gulf Coast in November! 2009 was only slow if you compare it to our very busy 2003, 2004-2005, 2006, and 2008 Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Before 1995, 9 or 10 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin was typically the "norm."


We had 18 named storms in 2012, 13 named storms in 2013, and who knows how many we storms we will get in 2014.

The science of weather in the Atlantic Tropics~! Love to hear what everyone here on WU has to say about it ~!


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N64W OR JUST
WEST OF BERMUDA...GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-
34N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY BEFORE WINDS AT THE UPPER-LEVELS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY SHOWERS
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
not only did gfs have 97 it had the system just west of florida developing a bit moving offshore the central atlantic coast then retrograding back west into the central atlantic coast
well good morning......back from worshiping the mouse.....cpc in their weekly update has the enso 3.4 region at 0.4c this week.........here at the home front rachel's moisture combined with a low over vegas....has given us the chance for severe weather this afternoon....wind and hail.......hope everyone is having a great day
Quoting 604. washingtonian115:

I'm hoping some interesting weather happens somewhere else besides Florida.Florida Florida Florida.If I had 5 dollars every time Florida is mentioned I'd be rich!!.

From CWG



Rain in Florida in September. Go figure.
A subtropical cyclone is better than nothing...I guess.

Needs more convection for classification.

Needs more convection for classification AND HOW IS THE WIND SHEAR OVER 97L
if our little gfs fake storm forecast forecasts a storm will it do a normal October like system or will it go out to sea by the way hows everybody doing
Quoting 607. StormTrackerScott:



Anything going on in DC? Boring time of year for most of the Country.


Nope just very pleasant weather. No complaints.

If this fall's analog is 1976 that unbreakable trough in the East has better set up soon. The last above normal period except for a few days near thanksgiving, that year, was mid September.
Quoting 640. hurricanes2018:

Needs more convection for classification AND HOW IS THE WIND SHEAR OVER 97L

A marginally favorable 15-20 knots this afternoon, increasing to 60 knots by Wednesday night...
Whoever was talking about the West Pacific being dead upset MONA.

This is a weather blog, so feel free to post anything weather related, whether it is in your neck of the woods or another place in the world.

97L is favorable now, and Western Caribbean and Gulf is now favorable. :)
actually gfs as we all no as ghost forecasting systems
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FLC023-047-GAC065-101-291545-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FA.Y.0269.140929T1344Z-140929T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
CLINCH GA-ECHOLS GA-COLUMBIA FL-HAMILTON FL-
944 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IN...
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JENNINGS...
SOUTHERN CLINCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FARGO...
ECHOLS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF STATENVILLE...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 941 AM EDT WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN
FROM SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER AND NORTHWARD INTO ECHOLS AND
SOUTHERN CLINCH COUNTY. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS EXPECTED AND
SECONDARY DIRT ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 129 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
STATENVILLE AND JENNINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR ANY UPDATES OR FLOOD WARNINGS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

&&
Quoting 623. Stormwatch247:

97L Looking more organized.

97L is looking more impressive on the VIS satellite. With the hostile conditions in the MDR of the Atlantic for much of the 2014 hurricane season, it seems possible that something could spin up easier in the sub-tropics. We might get T.S. Fay or Sub T.S. Fay out of 97L!

Still would not rule out more storms possibly forming in the area of the W. Atlantic from the Bermuda area, southwestward ... later in the season. We still have October ahead of us! Who knows, even the hostile Caribbean might get a spin-up surprise storm form in October.




I'm hoping it will, gotta make it to Gonzalo
lately as in meaning this morning..lol..yeah then you're right..

I get plenty of hugs from my husband and children..but thanks I never turn one down even from a bear..

I guarantee you won't be able to go a week on this blog without mentioning snow..all someone got to do is post a snow picture even from as far back from the 1800s and its like catching fish..you'll take the bite and get caught..

Good laugh this morning..thanks!

you know its kinda funny,some in here complain about all the florida posts YET..they arent discussing THEIR weather concerns for THEIR area huh..its why we created the florida weather blog ..yet even if..every single floridian stopped posting in here..the blog would be dead in weeks or 1/5th its current postings....folks post about YOUR weather too all around the country and world...its very easy to complain,complain,complain but your not talking weather huh..and besides that...florida IS going thru a flooding and storm event ...which IS...on topic here.
Quoting 650. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'm hoping it will, gotta make it to Gonzalo



dont get your hops up on that
Quoting 639. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A subtropical cyclone is better than nothing...I guess.

Needs more convection for classification.




Looked quite a bit better last night and very early this morning convection-wise, but structure seems to have improved a bit. Bermuda had a nice wind shift from e to sw and 40 mph gusts along with a minimum pressure of 29.74, although I question it's validity as I have yet to see another station with as low of a pressure. 29.80-29.82 seems more reasonable. A couple of stations reported similar pressure. Def need some more convection. NHC sounded somewhat bullish in their wording, but still only gave it 30%. I don't think I really expect much at this point.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Andrebrooks:


Wow well if the W Carib can remain in the Highly favourable for the next week or two I would most certainly believe GFS with W Carib system
I'd say chances of excessive rain are diminishing as this blow off streams ashore. All it's doing is keeping temps down and isn't going to contribute much to any rain gauges. Perhaps a few isolated 3-4"+, but I wouldn't expect it to be too widespread.