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Tropical Atlantic Remains Quiet; Eastern Pacific Heating Up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on August 19, 2014

A tropical wave located in the Central Atlantic near 11°N 48°W, about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed westwards at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show the wave has a broad, elongated surface circulation and a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that the wave is surrounded by dry air, though the amount of dryness has lessened over the past two days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are marginal for development, about 27°C. The Tuesday morning run of one of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, did show this wave developing into a tropical storm on Friday as it passed through the Lesser Antilles. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low Tuesday and Wednesday, but development odds will increase on Thursday as the wave nears the Lesser Antilles, where ocean temperatures will be warmer and the atmosphere a little moister. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary.

A second disturbance near 13°N, 37°W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, also has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Lowell as seen at 11 am EDT Tuesday, August 19, 2014. At the time, Lowell had top winds of 50 mph. Image taken from a super-rapid scan mode loop from the NOAA/RAMMB website.

The Eastern Pacific heating up
In the Eastern Pacific, we have a new named storm, Tropical Storm Lowell, which formed at 03 UTC on Tuesday. The GOES-West satellite is in super-rapid scan mode over Lowell today, and you can access some very impressive one-minute time resolution loops of Lowell at the NOAA/RAMMB website. Lowell's formation gives the Eastern Pacific 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricane so far this season. On average, the Eastern Pacific sees 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by August 18, so it has been a very active year in the basin. Tropical Storm Karina is also spinning away in the Eastern Pacific today, and Karina and Lowell are expected to become entangled with each other early next week and die in the cool waters well to the west of Baja Mexico. The models have been consistently predicting that a another named storm (Marie) will form late this week from a tropical wave that crossed Central America on Monday and will move parallel to the Mexican coast a few hundred miles offshore. This storm, which NHC is giving 5-day odds of development of 70%, is something residents of the Baja Peninsula should monitor next week. Ocean temperatures in the waters just west of the Baja Peninsula are unusually warm---30°C (86°F), which is about 3°C (5°F) above average--so Marie will have plenty of heat energy available to power it.

The Western Pacific remains mercifully quiet, with no new named storms expected to develop over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

may i just input why i love this blog.....just yesterday and the day before...the popular theme was the atlantic was closed until at least september.....and the season was already pronounced dead....those that chose 5-7 named storms thought they had even quoted too high.....now....WHAM!!!!...in just 24 hours we have two circles on the board.....gotta love it

Very, very, very, early models. I don't agree it will stay that far south.


trust the XTRAP :-)
503. SLU
Tomas pt 2?

Quoting 466. FOREX:



So the GFS may be wrong again.
First you need to pay attention to the Gfs and Cmc as they are the best with cyclogenesis. After a system is declared as a td or ts you can use the Euro for track as its usually pretty good.
Quoting IDTH:

My bad i'm still new and some of my lack of knowledge is noticeable, but from the experiences I have had with the global models they generally have had trouble with the intensity whether it is overestimating or underestimating and usually when we are this far out I sometimes need to wait before actually assuming development will happen, but in this case it is ridiculously favorable around the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and I don't want to see what would happen if a storm went over those warm waters. I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I don't buy for a second that those warm waters combine that with relaxing shear in that area would not lead to a major hurricane above CAT 3. This isn't 2012 where the gulf of mexico was riddled with dry air during Issac.

Ah don't worry mate you doing good so far
Quoting Drakoen:


Seems random. What is the track record of this model?


Up there with the ECMWF

It didn't develop Bertha if I recall correctly.
507. ackee
I think 96L is the slowest moving invest this seasons this could make the system take advantage of the warm water in the carribbean esp the western carribbean the GFS seem to be on the ball
There is a floater up for 96L
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


IF YA GET A WARNING DONT GO THERE MESSAGE ITS OK GO THERE
Link


Thanks! Did get warning. Is it ok? Just want to be sure :)
Quoting 491. JRRP:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 28 s
12z Chinese global spectral model -- higher resolution than GFS, does not develop a tropical system in Atlantic.
Shhh!!!
Could spell very bad trouble for Haiti. Models overdoing it with intensity possibilities? Trades should only allow this to slowly intensify into maybe a large weak/moderate TS, but a hurricane? Trade wind inversion can be overcome by tropical systems though and above average trade winds don't always hinder a system. A system heading due West will certainly be more adversely affected than one headed WNW. We've seen early intensity models absolutely fail this year, but this has the look of maybe coming true.
Quoting 491. JRRP:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 28 s
12z Chinese global spectral model -- higher resolution than GFS, does not develop a tropical system in Atlantic.
so we now go with the Chinese model with this one thats it pack it up go home we are done here

ya right
513. SLU
This won't have any issue closing off a circulation unlike what we've seen in the past.

STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14

I think 96L is the slowest moving invest this seasons this could make the system take advantage of the warm water in the carribbean esp the western carribbean the GFS seem to be on the ball


this way it won't outrun itself which is what we have seen so far
Quoting 495. ncstorm:

Pick a line..any line..


That is funny...its early and the models will be all over the place..If 96 cranks up, the bets will ride on where and when..its that time for folks to check supplies and be ready in case we have a landfall.
ECMWF still got that large major hurricane off coast of Baja, however.
Quoting 488. barbamz:


Lol! I knew it: "Invest 96L courtesy of Florida newby Levi Cowan."
He might just get to study one up close and personal now :)
Here we go again in Southern Michigan. Another round of severe storms and heavy rain is occuring in western Lower Michigan. Metro Detroit is under a Flash Flood Watch until 10PM and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9PM. Really hoping that more severe flooding doesn't occur. Since July 27th, I've recorded almost 11" of rain and it looks like I could be getting a couple more. Also have had 3 hailstorms, 1 damaging wind event, and 4 flooding events (including the historic 8/11 flood) from July 27th onward.


GFS still takes 96L into the middle of the gulf then northwards........................................ ...............
Quoting 503. SLU:

Tomas pt 2?




Storms developing E/SE of Barbados and moving slowly NW can intensify significantly (Tomas is an exemple... but also Marilyn and Jose)
Quoting 501. ricderr:

may i just input why i love this blog.....just yesterday and the day before...the popular theme was the atlantic was closed until at least september.....and the season was already pronounced dead....those that chose 5-7 named storms thought they had even quoted too high.....now....WHAM!!!!...in just 24 hours we have two circles on the board.....gotta love it
aye ric but sometimes things change in but a blink of an eye
Quoting 497. Grothar:

Very, very, very, early models. I don't agree it will stay that far south.


If it crash into Hispañola it might severely disrupt it.
Quoting 513. SLU:

This won't have any issue closing off a circulation unlike what we've seen in the past.

STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14


Nice!
Quoting 501. ricderr:

may i just input why i love this blog.....just yesterday and the day before...the popular theme was the atlantic was closed until at least september.....and the season was already pronounced dead....those that chose 5-7 named storms thought they had even quoted too high.....now....WHAM!!!!...in just 24 hours we have two circles on the board.....gotta love it


There was an awful lot of Taz saying that the Atlantic was closed. I know he said it at least 40 times.
So he shouldn't have to worry about this.... since the season is "over".
either way..gem or gfs..my area could see windy conditions,hopefully with some rains
I've personally noticed compared to phase 1, MJO phase 2 is significantly more conducive to TC genesis & intensification in the Caribbean, where 96L appears to be headed & has observed a number of nasty hurricanes in this phase of the MJO (Ivan (2004), Gustav (2008), Dean (2007), Felix (2007), ), versus phase 1 w/ category 5 Hurricane David (1979) as the main contributor of ACE in this region of the Atlantic. In addition, the east-central Gulf of Mexico (where much of the model guidance is currently taking 96L by next week) seems to be a hot spot for TC activity MJO phase 1, w/ systems like Frederic (1979), Dennis (2005) among others. We shall see what happens, interesting times ahead for sure...

RMM MJO phase 1 Atlantic TC tracks


RMM MJO phase 2 Atlantic TC tracks
Quoting 507. ackee:

I think 96L is the slowest moving invest this seasons this could make the system take advantage of the warm water in the carribbean esp the western carribbean the GFS seem to be on the ball


I agree the slow forward speed will allow convergence to be reinforced and a more moister environment is probable as well as a more convective induced atmosphere present as it is now with a large upper level anticyclone over top the invest along with a newly begun developing surface low pressure center with low level clouds streaming in from the south and moving towards the east of the circulation. Convection is overtop the surface low, and I expect percentages to go up to 50% and 60% tonight at 8pm EDT. Especially with a much more moist environment present now than even 24 hours ago.
Quoting 506. Stormchaser2007:



Up there with the ECMWF

It didn't develop Bertha if I recall correctly.


Does this model have a name? Any publications or documentation associated with it?
Quoting 520. LargoFl:

GFS still takes 96L into the middle of the gulf then northwards........................................ ...............
its going to the western end of lake Ontario or I should say coming to the western end of lake Ontario
531. IDTH
Quoting 457. Bluestorm5:

And ECMWF lost it between 96 HR and 108 HR. Granted, I'm using WeatherBell but there's no obvious cyclone now.

I'm curious to see if the Euro will be right and outsmart the other models but I honestly do not know if it is right this could turn out to be a very favorable environment that could atleast support a hurricane and at most it could support a major hurricane over cat 3 or possibly 4.
weather modeles have a hard time with intensity all the time
Quoting 513. SLU:

This won't have any issue closing off a circulation unlike what we've seen in the past.

STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14
I'm not sure yet, 2013 and this year have shown that anything can happen to this Twaves, good or bad.
Quoting ncstorm:
Pick a line..any line..it seems LA is a sure fire target as there are no lines touching it..



lol. Euro agrees. right to La. although just a blob
Now that we have an invest with coordinates, models will be able to latch on to a specific area on their future runs. We will also be able to add in the hurricane models on the 18z run.
Quoting 519. wxchaser97:

Here we go again in Southern Michigan. Another round of severe storms and heavy rain is occuring in western Lower Michigan. Metro Detroit is under a Flash Flood Watch until 10PM and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9PM. Really hoping that more severe flooding doesn't occur. Since July 27th, I've recorded almost 11" of rain and it looks like I could be getting a couple more. Also have had 3 hailstorms, 1 damaging wind event, and 4 flooding events (including the historic 8/11 flood) from July 27th onward.



that be coming for us tomorrow as well nice today clear and sunny
Quoting SLU:
This won't have any issue closing off a circulation unlike what we've seen in the past.

STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14

Double yikes
Quoting 500. TheDawnAwakening:



When do the hurricane models come out with 96L? HWRF and GFDL?
my guess now thats its 96L probably tonight or tomorrow..its still early yet
Quoting 507. ackee:

I think 96L is the slowest moving invest this seasons this could make the system take advantage of the warm water in the carribbean esp the western carribbean the GFS seem to be on the ball
Yep..Reminds me of Hugo when it sort of meandered through the Northern Antilles and Puerto Rico. This is the best footage of Hugo. Go out to 15.00 minutes , and listen to hell on Earth...Link
When was the last time the first three name storms reach hurricane intensity?
541. FOREX
Quoting 521. CaribBoy:



Storms developing E/SE of Barbados and moving slowly NW can intensify significantly (Tomas is an exemple... but also Marilyn and Jose)


From an invest to CAT3 in 108 hours seems overdone at this point.
542. JLPR2
Quoting 483. CaribBoy:

A big CB has just developed right next to me xD Can even hear the thunder now :-) The environment is definitely WETTER now!!!


Thank the ULL to the NE. :0)
Quoting 540. allancalderini:

When was the last time the first three storms reach hurricane intensity?

They didn't, TD 2 didn't reach hurricane intensity.
Quoting 479. wunderkidcayman:


The ridge is expected to weaken a bit this should slow trades down a bit
While keeping it on a W-WNW track through the Caribbean
maybe move more like NW and move up the east coast
Quoting 529. Drakoen:



Does this model have a name? Any publications or documentation associated with it?


it seems to be well known among the younger generation..

The year 2004 was a landmark year for Florida. Four storms tore through central Florida in a six-week period: Charley, followed by Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. It was the first time four hurricanes hit one state in one season since four hurricanes made landfall in Texas in 1886.

"The reality of it is, it just takes that one storm to come through to really devastate the area," Iovino said. "And you have to be ready."
.
If you go to this German site (Link) and click "Animation" you get a nice worldwide loop of the GFS-forecast for strong winds, showing at first in the EPAC: Karina and Lowell dancing the Fujiwara, then Marie developing and at the same time our still cute little 96L in the Caribbean and heading towards NOLA.

Quoting 534. AtHomeInTX:



lol. Euro agrees. right to La. although just a blob


LOL..thanks Euro!!
I see the surface low center near 9.5N: 49.5W
Quoting 540. allancalderini:

When was the last time the first three storms reach hurricane intensity?


1983 was the last time the first 3 storms were hurricanes. That season went 4-3-1 though and is one of the quietest on record.
Quoting 543. EpsilonWeather:


They didn't, TD 2 didn't reach hurricane intensity.


He means three named storms. TD 2 doesn't count as a named storm.
The much-harped-upon convectively-coupled kelvin wave is still on the way. It should be in a favorable superposition with Invest 96L in 2-3 days, which may aid in development and/or intensification if this is a tropical cyclone already.

Quoting 543. EpsilonWeather:


They didn't, TD 2 didn't reach hurricane intensity.
Sorry to clarify the first three name storms believing this one might?
There was an awful lot of Taz saying that the Atlantic was closed. I know he said it at least 40 times.
So he shouldn't have to worry about this.... since the season is "over".




taz lives in socal...i live in el paso....we can be wrong time and again......and we never have to worry
Quoting 540. allancalderini:

When was the last time the first three storms reach hurricane intensity?


The last time that happened was 1992.
Quoting 540. allancalderini:

When was the last time the first three storms reach hurricane intensity?

1992 if you're referring to named storms (Andrew, Bonnie, Charley), but keep in mind that there were two tropical depressions and a subtropical storm before Andrew formed.
Quoting 530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its going to the western end of lake Ontario or I should say coming to the western end of lake Ontario
end run you may get a lil piece of this keeper
gfs has this storm explode as it nears the coastline......................................... ......................
Where's this go after hitting or not hitting the DR? Either way if it survives or even hits the mountains, this could be a real problem if it doesn't fish. Florida hasn't rolled snake eyes in a long long time. Sure Kori would be thrilled to see Isaac II, with less rain this time.
Power just came back on about 10 minutes ago. I'm still hearing thunder out, so I suppose we're in for an eventful afternoon of sorts...

My comment on our two AOIs: right now it looks like models are suggesting everybody should BOLO for a storm....

Quoting 167. Thrawst:



Last night had some incredible lightning.


Agreed. I was on the wrong side of the storms.... I picked up a lot of the "reflections" but never got any good strikes. Mostly "brown" and "red" light, not bright white like this one you caught.

Can I please ask the WU site admins to fix the kinks for this website before trouble is a foot? If there is a storm barreling towards the US aint no way people are going to put with the technical misfits this site has..it takes several tries to plus a comment, several F5s to see new comments and will double post a comment in a heartbeat..
Man this blog is laggy right now.. Or is it just me?
Quoting 552. TheDawnAwakening:



He means three named storms. TD 2 doesn't count as a named storm.

He didn't say "named" storms, he just said storms. TD 2 still counts as a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 554. allancalderini:

Sorry to clarify the first three name storms believing this one might?

Oh, then 1992, so... 22 years.
Quoting Drakoen:


Does this model have a name? Any publications or documentation associated with it?


Unfortunately the commies don't publish much on their prized model.
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO BE ATTENDED BY LOW PRES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
WATERS. THE NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST POINTS WILL BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST OF THIS WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM.

Quoting 551. Envoirment:



1983 was the last time the first 3 storms were hurricanes. That season went 4-3-1 though and is one of the quietest on record.

Depending on your location of course.
Poll:
What's gonna kill 96L and make it a fail this time?

1. Dry air
2. Shear
3. Land In teraction
4. HAARP
5. All of the above
Quoting 529. Drakoen:



Does this model have a name? Any publications or documentation associated with it?


Found the answers to my own questions.
Can I please ask the WU site admins to fix the kinks for this website before trouble is a foot? If there is a storm barreling towards the US aint no way people are going to put with the technical misfits this site has..it takes several tries to plus a comment, several F5s to see new comments and will double post a comment in a heartbeat.


first...as you've stated you don't plus comments...it's a gang type tool.....of which i actually agree with the latter

2nd.....you might check your browser or connection as i'm having no problems
Quoting Articuno:
Man this blog is laggy right now.. Or is it just me?


Quite common for me even when the blog is slow.
I'll have to refresh the screen multiple times for a coulple minutes to make a post.

Then all the sudden the blog will go back to loading fast again.


(Click to enlarge; saved pic). Airmasses over the Atl are considerably more moist now than some days ago: less orange-red (= dry sinking airmasses), more green.
Quoting 535. MississippiWx:

Now that we have an invest with coordinates, models will be able to latch on to a specific area on their future runs. We will also be able to add in the hurricane models on the 18z run.

00z run will be the first good set that's not till after 11pm tonight
Quoting 559. LargoFl:
gfs has this storm explode as it nears the coastline......................................... ......................

That's on top of me, so I vote NO!
Quoting 563. ncstorm:

Can I please ask the WU site admins to fix the kinks for this website before trouble is a foot? If there is a storm barreling towards the US aint no way people are going to put with the technical misfits this site has..it takes several tries to plus a comment, several F5s to see new comments and will double post a comment in a heartbeat..


I'm not having those issues but it does take forever to load the page. A popup says its because of a long running script and asks me if I want to stop running it. It certainly isn't my internet connection or my computer as it is a very high end gaming machine.
Isn't this about the same area that Ivan formed 10 years ago?
Quoting 542. JLPR2:



Thank the ULL to the NE. :0)



I wish it could also drag 96L more to the N xD
00z run will be the first good set that's not till after 11pm tonight


something to wake up to
Quoting 569. WxGeekVA:

Poll:
What's gonna kill 96L and make it a fail this time?

1. Dry air
2. Shear
3. Land In teraction
4. HAARP
5. All of the above


Land interaction only.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FLC047-121-191930-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0183.000000T0000Z-140819T1930Z/
HAMILTON FL-SUWANNEE FL-
306 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SUWANNEE SPRINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE
SPRINGS AND BELMONT.
Quoting 575. BiloxiIsle:


That's on top of me, so I vote NO!
yes good luck over there ok....
Quoting 571. ricderr:

Can I please ask the WU site admins to fix the kinks for this website before trouble is a foot? If there is a storm barreling towards the US aint no way people are going to put with the technical misfits this site has..it takes several tries to plus a comment, several F5s to see new comments and will double post a comment in a heartbeat.


first...as you've stated you don't plus comments...it's a gang type tool.....of which i actually agree with the latter

2nd.....you might check your browser or connection as i'm having no problems



Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..
Quoting 569. WxGeekVA:

Poll:
What's gonna kill 96L and make it a fail this time?

1. Dry air
2. Shear
3. Land In teraction
4. HAARP
5. All of the above
if it moves like the GFS shows the monsoon to it's southwest will aid it up more moisture. best bet to kill it is if it moves too far north into hispanola. cuba wont kill it. hispanola will. i think models will shift further soft because the system isn't a strong storm
Quoting 577. PanhandleChuck:

Isn't this about the same area that Ivan formed 10 years ago?

Ivan formed further back and in early September.


Quoting 576. Saltydogbwi1:



I'm not having those issues but it does take forever to load the page. A popup says its because of a long running script and asks me if I want to stop running it. It certainly isn't my internet connection or my computer as it is a very high end gaming machine.


yes, I get the script error as well..by the way I plussed your comment..:)
587. JLPR2
Quoting 578. CaribBoy:



I wish it could also drag 96L more to the N xD


I wouldn't mind, crossing my fingers & wishing it passes close enough to leave some rain over the NE Caribbean.
Quoting 577. PanhandleChuck:
Isn't this about the same area that Ivan formed 10 years ago?
When Ivan reached this area he was well formed already. He formed close to the CV islands.
Pretty aimlessly speculative to talk about what 96L might do beyond five days... but seeing as aimless speculation is what we're best at, I'm going to guess a weak and struggling tropical storm through the next five days with a chance of mischief in the GOMEX/Western Caribbean.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Poll:
What's gonna kill 96L and make it a fail this time?

1. Dry air
2. Shear
3. Land In teraction
4. HAARP
5. All of the above


Dry air and land interaction, probably.
12Z EURO actually developing the second wave?

Link
there will be one on the pacific side also.............................................. ...............................................
Thanks everyone for your answers. See you in a bit.
Quoting 577. PanhandleChuck:

Isn't this about the same area that Ivan formed 10 years ago?


Nope, Ivan formed way back near the Cape Verde Islands.

Quoting 507. ackee:

I think 96L is the slowest moving invest this seasons this could make the system take advantage of the warm water in the carribbean esp the western carribbean the GFS seem to be on the ball
Last half-way decent system we had was bulleting along at 20+ mph most of the way across the ATL.... slower movement means better chances to organize in the first place and stay organized afterwards....

Quoting 541. FOREX:



From an invest to CAT3 in 108 hours seems overdone at this point.
Maybe, but not improbable, or even unlikely. The precedents are out there.

Quoting 546. LargoFl:

The year 2004 was a landmark year for Florida. Four storms tore through central Florida in a six-week period: Charley, followed by Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. It was the first time four hurricanes hit one state in one season since four hurricanes made landfall in Texas in 1886.

"The reality of it is, it just takes that one storm to come through to really devastate the area," Iovino said. "And you have to be ready."

'04 is not a year we like to remember.

Quoting 575. BiloxiIsle:


That's on top of me, so I vote NO!
Dont worry a turn to Florida is possible.
Ludicrous first run

00z runs should have a slightly better handle

IV15 (Intensity consensus)

AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 0, 0N, 0W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 12, 0N, 0W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 24, 0N, 0W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 36, 0N, 0W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 48, 0N, 0W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 60, 0N, 0W, 73, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 72, 0N, 0W, 86, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 84, 0N, 0W, 94, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 96, 0N, 0W, 98, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 108, 0N, 0W, 100, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, 03, IV15, 120, 0N, 0W, 72, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Quoting 569. WxGeekVA:

Poll:
What's gonna kill 96L and make it a fail this time?

1. Dry air
2. Shear
3. Land In teraction
4. HAARP
5. All of the above


6. Obama
Quoting 591. CaribBoy:

12Z EURO actually developing the second wave?

Link

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan
600. xcool
weatherh98 LMAOO
Quoting 591. CaribBoy:

12Z EURO actually developing the second wave?

Link
If you like fish,this one for you.
Quoting 598. weatherh98:



6. Obama
7.Hillary
In other news, a decently strong thunderstorm is over downtown Nassau right now. Lots of lightning strikes striking well far away from the storm, one just about a half mile away from me. Pretty sick.

Quoting 583. ncstorm:



Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..
dust lots and lots of dust and spores there bad this year too
Quoting 595. BahaHurican:

Last half-way decent system we had was bulleting along at 20 mph most of the way across the ATL.... slower movement means better chances to organize in the first place and stay organized afterwards....

Maybe, but not improbable, or even unlikely. The precedents are out there.

'04 is not a year we like to remember.


The slow movers have usually been very bad. Numerous storms have taken the most damaging path possible, nailing many islands with terrible damage and loss of life.
Quoting 583. ncstorm:



Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..
ncstorm.....That is what he does...has always done it, will always do it...like my grandson...Looking for attention, and usually gets it, without reason
Quoting 598. weatherh98:



6. Obama


...LOL
Quoting 604. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

dust lots and lots of dust and spores there bad this year too


lots of dust but it seems great internet connection unfortunately
RAIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS SO FAR FORECAST TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE EAST
AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR PUERTO RICO...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND....WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECTED
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS OVER
LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY... SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
FURTHER WEST BUT REMAIN WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION TO MAINTAIN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

THE BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL
WAVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY.
IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
BY SATURDAY WHICH SO FAR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OR NOT...THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL REGION BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
The se US coastline is many days away. The first interaction with land will be the Barbados then windward islands . I foresee 96L becoming a strong tropical storm Christobal affecting the islands by Friday evening.
96L enters into the most favorable conditions we've seen in the Atlantic since October 2012. This could be one to watch, one model has it heading up the spine of Florida as a Hurricane, GFS has it hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane, FIM has it reaching the Bahamas by 7 seven days... as a Hurricane. This is looking promising for us storm trackers and one to watch for the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Pattern does not favor a recurve out to sea at all. 96L will eventually effect the USA sometime next late next week whether be a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or even a disturbance.
Quoting 601. prcane4you:

If you like fish,this one for you.


But it's not a fish in this run and previous one too
Quoting 576. Saltydogbwi1:



I'm not having those issues but it does take forever to load the page. A popup says its because of a long running script and asks me if I want to stop running it. It certainly isn't my internet connection or my computer as it is a very high end gaming machine.
I've been having the script issues on Firefox since they "updated" the site. Numerous requests to deal with this issue have been posted to the response log. So far.... [shrugs]...



96l floater self updating
It expect code red at 8 or at least 50/60.
From the San Juan NWS. Hoping for much needed rain here and in adjacent islands.

THE BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL
WAVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY.
IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
BY SATURDAY WHICH SO FAR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OR NOT...THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL REGION BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
12z Navgem Ensembles






It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.
Quoting 611. reedzone:

96L enters into the most favorable conditions we've seen in the Atlantic since October 2012. This could be one to watch, one model has it heading up the spine of Florida as a Hurricane, GFS has it hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane, FIM has it reaching the Bahamas by 7 seven days... as a Hurricane. This is looking promising for us storm trackers and one to watch for the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Pattern does not favor a recurve out to sea at all. 96L will eventually effect the USA sometime next late next week whether be a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or even a disturbance.


Nice to see you too, reedzone.
Quoting 606. PalmBeachWeather:

ncstorm.....That is what he does...has always done it, will always do it...like my grandson...Looking for attention, and usually gets it, without reason

But ric is a sweetie! .... Oh.... well I see what u mean....
:o)

Anyhoo, how can you be giving ric in El Paso all that attention when we are under a DOOM watch!?!?!?

Shear should remain high until 65W, at lest a day or two before this has a chance to develop. With an anti-cyclone above and kelvin wave coming along for the ride too, after 65W shear plummets for where 96L should be at that time. 950mb trade winds don't look all that impressive, this looks to be lining up very nicely. Or very badly depending on perspective.

close to TD status IMO, 11N/49W
Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..


sorry my post offended you...it was meant with sincerity...if i am such a bother i ask you to place me on ignore as neither of us will be banned that way....i'll leave the topic at that
Quoting 613. BahaHurican:

I've been having the script issues on Firefox since they "updated" the site. Numerous requests to deal with this issue have been posted to the response log. So far.... [shrugs]...






Hey Baha..
Reloaded IE and moved from Firefox earlier this year due to the continuous script errors on multiple sites..
No prob now..
The real problem here is an overloaded banner header..
Quoting 611. reedzone:

96L enters into the most favorable conditions we've seen in the Atlantic since October 2012. This could be one to watch, one model has it heading up the spine of Florida as a Hurricane, GFS has it hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane, FIM has it reaching the Bahamas by 7 seven days... as a Hurricane. This is looking promising for us storm trackers and one to watch for the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Pattern does not favor a recurve out to sea at all. 96L will eventually effect the USA sometime next late next week whether be a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or even a disturbance.

What if the future (may be) Christobal (Columbus) decides to rediscover America a second time?
Quoting 618. Drakoen:

It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.
lol
627. xcool
Drakoen ;) yep I agree with you
Quoting 603. Thrawst:

In other news, a decently strong thunderstorm is over downtown Nassau right now. Lots of lightning strikes striking well far away from the storm, one just about a half mile away from me. Pretty sick.


We're getting some heavy rain and rather forceful wind gusts now. Looks like a dry run [wait, would that be a WET run???] for the next TC... AKA typical Aug afternoon wx around here.
in my best don pardo voice.....

why yes rick...why don't you post some 5 day models

Quoting 618. Drakoen:

It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.
Just got my 90 day supply.....
Quoting 618. Drakoen:

It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.


Lmao, I stocked up at Walgreens last week, bought me a flashlight and some batteries as well :)
cmc says we got a weak winner just about to cuba!!!!!

Quoting 583. ncstorm:



Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..


Ric is ric this is what he does. Just ignore and then you will be fine.
One of these days I will understand when people talk about how much better the models will be since an Invest has been declared, but up to now I have never seen any documentation that shows it. Most of the Global Models do not use bogusing (inserting a storm into the model field), so whatever the model spins up is what you are going to get. The cyclone specific models do use bogusing, so I can see how they would be aided by the NHC specified vortex.




From Rammb VISIT training TC Track Model Guidance used by NHC
I will laugh myself stupid if 96L reaches the islands and fizzles out like a fart in the wind. The Xanax will be swallowed in fistfulls on this board! Lol.
Long range models seem to point 96L right at FL both operational and ensembles.
ecmwf just doesn't give 96l any love


Good afternoon.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropical mess east of the Caribbean for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 19th
96L is showing tropical characteristics, surface low, well developed central convection and a convectively enhanced moist airmass with a large upper level anticyclone present taking away any wind shear problems until the central Caribbean Sea.
Quoting 635. nrtiwlnvragn:

Thank you for the link NRT..
Quoting 622. stormpetrol:

close to TD status IMO, 11N/49W
Not yet. Winds are at 25kts but it is still too stretched. Not concentrated enough yet.
gfs shows weak also.......


The two disturbances (96L and that beyond it) exhibits a mild interaction between these two features. If 96L has better conditions then 96L could predominate. It seems that 96L will cross far south of PR. However, if it do develop into a well sustained storm before reaching 60-61 longitude then it could go further north and hence closer to PR, due to the TUTT at north.
Quoting 638. ricderr:

ecmwf just doesn't give 96l any love





Again Ric, that is the ensemble member... Get with the program
Quoting nash36:
I will laugh myself stupid if 96L reaches the islands and fizzles out like a fart in the wind. The Xanax will be swallowed in fistfulls on this board! Lol.


I think we should expect that, lol.
Quoting 623. ricderr:

Ric..are you bored? Not going there sir....dont you know a storm is a brewing..how bout post some 5 day model runs..

and I do plus comments sometimes..and I'm pretty sure my connection is working perfectly..Its not like I live with nothing but tumbleweeds..


sorry my post offended you...it was meant with sincerity...if i am such a bother i ask you to place me on ignore as neither of us will be banned that way....i'll leave the topic at that


Bans..Smans..I'm good as long as you behave :)..I hardly put anyone on ignore which is why I get bans all the time..

the site is having issues though and its not an connective issue..its WU..
Quoting 629. hydrus:


its got a bit to go by late Thursday afternoon should start the wind up as it tracks into ne carb south pr somewhere near 16n 66 w
navgem another one with no love

96L has a lot of heat energy close to FL if it heads this way.

Quoting 629. hydrus:


And that is an invest? What a joke.
Quoting ricderr:
ecmwf just doesn't give 96l any love




Looks like it kills it over Haiti.
Then a low pop up just off the S.E. coast (N.E. Florida offshore) which I believe is the same system.
Quoting 639. Levi32:

Good afternoon.

I've posted a new video discussion on the tropical mess east of the Caribbean for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 19th
agree with everything. thanks. the steering you talked about with that trough sitting there. you mentioned a stronger storm like a powerful hurricane would feel the pull and phase with the trough. is that common during august? the only storm i could think of that formed in the caribbean and phased with a trough was charley in 04.
I have seen it many of times where many think the next name on the list will be the storm everyone is talking about. We could have 2 named storms Christobal and then Dolly. What one will be the one the models are picking up on now. It could be Dolly?
Quoting 646. STORMW2014:



Again Ric, that is the ensemble member... Get with the program


Give him time to get to the pharmacy :)
Quoting 618. Drakoen:

It's that time of year again where everyone needs to update their prescription on their meds.
Including those of us who do not live in TC prone areas.... :o)

Quoting 624. pcola57:



Hey Baha..
Reloaded IE and moved from Firefox earlier this year due to the continuous script errors on multiple sites..
No prob now..
The real problem here is an overloaded banner header..

Ironically I had moved from IE to Firefox for the same reason.... :o/

Quoting 625. juracanpr1:


What if the future (may be) Christobal (Columbus) decides to rediscover America a second time?
It sounds like you are predicting a Bahamas landfall....

Quoting 656. Drakoen:



Give him time to get to the pharmacy :)


Takes a long time for old people to get from one place to the next. Kinda like driving 35 in a 50mph speed zone.
Invest 96L starting to look better right now!!!
Quoting 660. hurricanes2018:

Invest 96L starting to look better right now!!!
From not much.
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:

GFS


GFS loves making hurricane so big in size!!
Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:

CMC

Tampa...That would be bad.
Quoting 642. pcola57:



There is also TC Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC
navgem another one with no love

??

Quoting 668. ricderr:

navgem another one with no love


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 668. ricderr:

navgem another one with no love




Ummm... That's at 0 hour if you didn't notice
Takes a long time for old people to get from one place to the next. Kinda like driving 35 in a 50mph speed zone.



ta da da boom.........some of us old people average 3 miles a day.......whether on the street or tread.......by the way......are you still of a mind the atlantic is dead?????
Quoting 664. Grothar:


96L looks angry, Gro.
Quoting 664. Grothar:


That makes everything look scary.
Quoting 654. wunderweatherman123:

agree with everything. thanks. the steering you talked about with that trough sitting there. you mentioned a stronger storm like a powerful hurricane would feel the pull and phase with the trough. is that common during august? the only storm i could think of that formed in the caribbean and phased with a trough was charley in 04.


It's just hard to avoid North/central America in August if you're a TC in the Caribbean. Charley recurved into Florida, not out to sea. Here's historical August tracks passing through the eastern Caribbean area - you can see if they don't hit North America, they usually get close.

Quoting 661. StormTrackerScott:

CMC

Quit pointing that thing at Tampa Bay. LOL
89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............
Quoting 676. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Quit pointing that thing at Tampa Bay. LOL
LOL i'll second that
Quoting 677. LargoFl:

89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............

102.9 mph at 850mb (~5000ft). Multiply that by 80% and you get 82.3 mph winds at the surface.

But it's the CMC.
Quoting 679. TropicalAnalystwx13:


102.9 mph at 850mb (~5000ft). Multiply that by 80% and you get 82.3 mph winds at the surface.

But it's the CMC.
ok thanks
Glad to see you around.

Quoting 611. reedzone:

96L enters into the most favorable conditions we've seen in the Atlantic since October 2012. This could be one to watch, one model has it heading up the spine of Florida as a Hurricane, GFS has it hitting New Orleans as a Hurricane, FIM has it reaching the Bahamas by 7 seven days... as a Hurricane. This is looking promising for us storm trackers and one to watch for the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Pattern does not favor a recurve out to sea at all. 96L will eventually effect the USA sometime next late next week whether be a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, or even a disturbance.
Quoting 649. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its got a bit to go by late Thursday afternoon should start the wind up as it tracks into ne carb south pr somewhere near 16n 66 w
If this were to form, could take a rather dangerous path. And conditions in the gulf ( should it get their ) are expected to be very favorable for strengthening.
Quoting LargoFl:
89.5 kts...........is that 100 mph winds?............................................ ............


981 is "usually" a low end CAT2 (or high end CAT1).
Given where things might be headed over the next several weeks, folks in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast/Gulf of Mexico Region, and Florida should go ahead and check on the supplies stock for the season and have their plans in place in case they may need to prepare and/or evacuate if a storm threatens. That should be done every year regardless; any storm entering the Caribbean basin is usually going to impact somewhere along the areas mentioned unless it dissipates (whether because of unfavorable conditions or land interaction) and there will probably be a few hurricanes this year. As far as the models; take every run this far out with a large grain of salt and especially with no actual storm to track................................The NHC 3 and 5 day tracks (on an actual storm) is what you should use for actual preparation when/if the time comes.
...
Quoting 675. Levi32:



It's just hard to avoid North/central America in August if you're a TC in the Caribbean. Charley recurved into Florida, not out to sea. Here's historical August tracks passing through the eastern Caribbean area - you can see if they don't hit North America, they usually get close.


interesting. thanks. I find that storm track that curve into the coast are much more common given how many troughs come off or at least stay off the east coast. to think about it, it seems pretty hard to get a storm going wnw until its final landfall. seems pretty difficult to get something going over the northern islands and wnw right into florida and continuing wnw until it finally goes around the high.