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Tropical Atlantic quiets down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on October 24, 2008

The tropical Atlantic is relatively quiet today, though an area of disturbed weather has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean. This disturbance will move westward over Nicaragua and Costa Rica today, bringing heavy rains of 2-4 inches. The heavy rains that have plagued Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize in recent days appear likely to take a break today, although a low pressure area still lingers over the Western Caribbean. The death toll now stands at 44 from two weeks of heavy rains triggered by last week's Tropical Depression Sixteen and this week's tropical disturbance 91L. Hardest hit is Honduras, where 23 are dead and some 193,000 persons have been affected. Approximately 23,000 persons were evacuated of which 19,800 are in shelters. More than 340 houses were destroyed and 4,300 were damaged, with 157 roads damaged or destroyed. The past week's flooding has also killed four in Guatemala, seven in Costa Rica, four in Nicaragua, two in Belize, and four in El Salvador.


Figure 1. Total rainfall amounts over Guatemala have been as high as 16 inches over the northern portion of the country the past week. Image credit: Norman E. Avila, climaya.com.

The forecast
Persistent low pressure and sporadic heavy rains will continue over the Western Caribbean for the next ten days. A strong cold front is expected to push southward into the area next Tuesday, and the tail end of this cold front could serve as the nucleus for a new tropical disturbance that will generate another round of very heavy rains for Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize late next week. Wind shear is expected to be in the low to medium range over the Western Caribbean next week (Figure 2), so we will need to be concerned with a possible tropical storm forming by the middle of next week along the old front. High wind shear is expected north of the Caribbean during the coming two weeks, and it is unlikely that any tropical storms will be able to affect the U.S. during the coming two weeks--with the possible exception of South Florida. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Forecast wind shear for Monday night Ocober 27, 2008, at 8 pm EDT, as generated by the GFS model with its 00Z run on Friday October 24, 2008. The shear is shown in meters per second (multiply by two to make a rough conversion to knots). Low wind shear (darker red colors) are expected over the Western Caribbean next week, which may allow tropical storm development. Very high wind shear associated with a southern dip in the jet stream will protect the U.S. against any tropical storms that might develop.

Friday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods dropped much of those supplies off yesterday in Bridge City, Texas. Today, the Portlight truck will head to the Chambers County, Texas distribution center between 9:30 and 11:00 am, and drop off the rest of the supplies. These goods will go to residents on the hard-hit Bolivar Peninsula. You can follow the mission's progress through a newly set-up web site:

http://www.stormjunkie.com/portlight.php

On Saturday, from noon to 3 pm CDT, Portlight will be providing a free meal for 400-500 Bolivar Peninsula residents.

I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters
Portlight Ike Relief 10-23-08
Portlight Ike Relief 10-23-08
Unloading supplies in Bridge City at the distribution center run by the Churches of Christ and Laura Cremans; seen here.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr Masters
Tropics are quiet.
Lots of rain in S. Fort Myers and the weekend forecast doesn't look so good.
But with the dry season starting I guess the rain is welcome.
We're also setting BillyBadBird up today on the Bolivar!
Good work Portlight! We could use a little more rain here on the upper Texas coastal region but it looks a bit dry for now. Nice ground fog this morning on my way to work.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Tropics are quiet.
Lots of rain in S. Fort Myers and the weekend forecast doesn't look so good.
But with the dry season starting I guess the rain is welcome.


Take it while you can get it!
Thanks DR. Masters!
Thanks Dr. Masters. Still have a big low pressure over the central US. See what that does when it nears the Atlantic Coast.
Please check out the video and chat feature...as well as the donate button....at stormjunkie.com...it's REALLY cool....and pass it around....post to other blogs, e-mail to your in-laws, etc....

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I was talking to my self on yesterdays blog...nowonder...
I have located a new surface low starting to form ESE of cozumel,MX..the sheer is 5-10kts,there is ul divergence,vorticity at 850mb and the sheer forcast in the area in which it is moving(NNE) is dropping quickly,I would expect a new invest as the atmospheric conditions in this area are moderately favorable for a TD to develop and move towards the southern half of the FL peninsula.....JMO,I'll keep an eye on it,never the less the area has my attention!!!!
thanks stillwaiting!
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE LAKE MI
AREA BY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS WITH AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
SMALLER SCALE SPEED MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NEWD FROM THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...AROUND THE
BROAD MO/IA CLOSED LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IN THE EXTREME
NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO S
GA TODAY...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL/N FL TODAY INTO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN PERSISTS THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL FL NWD INTO
GA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NEWD/INLAND WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS RICHER MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SW
EDGE OF THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE
SW EDGE OF THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD OVERLAP IN A NARROW ZONE /AS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING OFF THE W COAST AND PANHANDLE OF FL/ THAT WILL
SHIFT NEWD ACROSS FL TODAY...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF GA/SC TONIGHT.
THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2/ AND RICH MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS.

EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BEGIN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY INVOF THE
FL BIG BEND AND W COAST...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL
DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING COASTAL SC/NC BY EARLY SATURDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/WIND PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK...BUT
LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY ACROSS
THIS AREA.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/24/2008




Thanks Dr. Masters, there are some pictures of Northern Guatemala on the Way to Tikal, roads are blocked. Latest rainfall reports for Tikal International Airport (MGTK) is 121mm (aprox. 4.7 inches) in the last 24 hours. (Synop 12Z report).

Thank God the fatallities are not as other storms (Stan/Mitch) but there are a lot of communities affected in Northern and Eastern Guatemala.
Hi StillWaiting... I noted a circulation over there last night with a new round of storms in Southern Yucatan (See our Lightning detector in www.climaya.com) but today seems quiet¿?

Quoting stillwaiting:
I was talking to my self on yesterdays blog...nowonder...
I have located a new surface low starting to form ESE of cozumel,MX..the sheer is 5-10kts,there is ul divergence,vorticity at 850mb and the sheer forcast in the area in which it is moving(NNE) is dropping quickly,I would expect a new invest as the atmospheric conditions in this area are moderately favorable for a TD to develop and move towards the southern half of the FL peninsula.....JMO,I'll keep an eye on it,never the less the area has my attention!!!!
Quoting Dr. M:

High wind shear is expected north of the Caribbean during the coming two weeks, and it is unlikely that any tropical storms will be able to affect the U.S. during the coming two weeks--with the possible exception of South Florida.

yup this just confirms that hurricane season is definitely over for us. Florida on the other hand has a slight chance if any is what I think but the carribean nations should definitely keep their eyes peeled

back to lurk mode :)
Good morning - a good day for ducks here.

RE:11. vortfix Thanks for the heads up

RE:Presslord, G'morning. Watching the webcam while lurking here and enjoying a cup a coffee

Quack, Quack
Death before dishonor, nothing before coffee.
Quoting stillwaiting:
I was talking to my self on yesterdays blog...nowonder...
I have located a new surface low starting to form ESE of cozumel,MX..the sheer is 5-10kts,there is ul divergence,vorticity at 850mb and the sheer forcast in the area in which it is moving(NNE) is dropping quickly,I would expect a new invest as the atmospheric conditions in this area are moderately favorable for a TD to develop and move towards the southern half of the FL peninsula.....JMO,I'll keep an eye on it,never the less the area has my attention!!!!


Hmmm... your post @ 14:41Z and the 12Z surface analysis showing the NNE move of the low was issued 14:41Z... coincidence? ;)

Link
sun now out in sarasota,fl..warming the atmosphere for further destablisation later this afternoon...if I get any good storm pics I'll post them,I just moved right across the street from the GOM,and can see it from my balcony...maybe I'll get lucky and get a pic or 2 of a waterspout!!!!!
Quoting Seastep:


Hmmm... your post @ 14:41Z and the 12Z surface analysis showing the NNE move of the low was issued 14:41Z... coincidence? ;)

Link


go back and check the old blog,I posted the SAME THING!!!!,why are you trying to start something?????
seastep: I must be a fast reader and a fast typer!!!!!..lol,what a fool!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
seastep: I must be a fast reader and a fast typer!!!!!..lol,what a fool!!!


lol,I was thinking the same thing,you must exceptional powers of typing at the same time the post comes out
...or maybe I'm one of the ones who create's the maps?????
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
thanks stillwaiting!



no problem brother/sister!!!...
Good afternoon... thx Doc.

Well I was afraid of the increased SVR potential due to the break in precipitation from our earlier discussion in the FL Peninsula.

Well... let's see if enough sunshine will be seen to spark CS field development on outflow boundaries or elevated convection.
with the energy dropping into the gulf quickly,some scattered sunshine warming the FL peninsula and a tropical surge coming up from the yucatan area,all converging over the central/South west FL area late this afternoon/evening.....strong weather should be expected over the entire FL peninsula and the likelyhood of severe weather is rising....just my opinion,of course...
The extratropical low is still south of the florida panhandle. It looks like its moving east toward the florida peninsula. I thought it would be moving ne through Georgia by now.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good afternoon... thx Doc.

Well I was afraid of the increased SVR potential due to the break in precipitation from our earlier discussion in the FL Peninsula.

Well... let's see if enough sunshine will be seen to spark CS field development on outflow boundaries or elevated convection.




we have a wee bit of sunshine warming the atmosphere here in srq right now,the winds are off the water and due to the atmosphiric mixing due to the sunshine the winds have come up considerably and I'm expecting some severe weather locally today....
Quoting stillwaiting:




we have a wee bit of sunshine warming the atmosphere here in srq right now,the winds are off the water and due to the atmosphiric mixing due to the sunshine the winds have come up considerably and I'm expecting some severe weather locally today....


Where is locally for you?
Since the low over the northern gom hasn't moved inland yet, what will it mean for florida
less or more rainy weather ?
spicy:sarasota,FL...siesta key specifically
hurricane: more rainy and more t-storms,the low has been absorbed and is actually diving a bit South of east!!!!..and if it combines w/the low off the yucatan...whoa!!!
Most of the heavy rains have moved into Georgia and the carolinas,but until the low moves past florida,the atmosphere over florida is going to be very unstable.
Iknow it as been blowing here on the east coast the last couple of days with a little bit of rain.Victory at sea off of our coast, real messy.
Quoting WxLogic:




WX if it's any help to you in your analysis, Highlands County, south of Sebring, NW of lake Okee. Noon temp is 75 pressure steady at 30 in very light winds (under 10 mph) and no rain. Overcast, but maybe not quite as much as yesterday.

And wow, now all I have to do is sit my xbox steering wheel in front of computer and pretend I'm driving down to Bolivar! How cool is that?
Quoting stillwaiting:


go back and check the old blog,I posted the SAME THING!!!!,why are you trying to start something?????


It's cool... was just poking fun that maybe you have inside info (i.e., you couldn't have typed that fast). :)
Quoting stillwaiting:
seastep: I must be a fast reader and a fast typer!!!!!..lol,what a fool!!!


Exactly! Did you not notice the wink? ;)

Was just trying to be funny... guess I shouldn't quit my day job. LOL.
The crew will be meeting BillyBadBird in about 20 minutes. You can watch live here.
Quoting Dodabear:
The crew will be meeting BillyBadBird in about 20 minutes. You can watch live here.


Recording the stream now...Sounds like good TV
Quoting RobDaHood:


WX if it's any help to you in your analysis, Highlands County, south of Sebring, NW of lake Okee. Noon temp is 75 pressure steady at 30 in very light winds (under 10 mph) and no rain. Overcast, but maybe not quite as much as yesterday.

And wow, now all I have to do is sit my xbox steering wheel in front of computer and pretend I'm driving down to Bolivar! How cool is that?


LOL... with that comment you reminded me of me playing Flight Simulator X on my Beech Baron. Have to get some of that after I get out from work... hope the wife won't go crazy.

In regards the SVR possibility in your area... if those overcast areas still persist the you might be in good shape as it will prevent destabilization. The only thing that would bring a threat would be an active outflow boundary.
38. WxLogic

Thanks man!
hi RobDaHood am watching the cam but can't hear, wants a log on to get in to listen?
Quoting stillwaiting:
spicy:sarasota,FL...siesta key specifically
hurricane: more rainy and more t-storms,the low has been absorbed and is actually diving a bit South of east!!!!..and if it combines w/the low off the yucatan...whoa!!!



Kinda Like This? (Activate NWS Fronts)
Good day, all you WUBAband Members. In very briefly, to say its a lovely tropical day, and all is quiet on the south/eastern front.
Very sad about the severe losses in Central America......
Doesn't look like the Low up by the panhandle is attached to the low in the plains anymore either.
once the low south of the panhandle gets caught by the SWesterly jet as the low moves up the east coast it should get absorbed byt the low over the great lakes,should be a fast mover tomorrow.expected to sweep through us up here in the northeast late tomorrow.
I just wish if it was going to be crappy and overcast outside it would just rain! We havent seen the sun much here in south florida for over 2 days! and its hardly rained! Its been very bluh!
see you guys next Hurricane Season!!!

I'm ready for an active winter... any thoughts on the sunspot activity influencing a colder then usual winter???
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
hi RobDaHood am watching the cam but can't hear, wants a log on to get in to listen?


Sorry, I got busy, I don't know that they're sending audio right now...All I'm getting is a video stream. Probably have the mic off.
Quoting pottery:
Good day, all you WUBAband Members. In very briefly, to say its a lovely tropical day, and all is quiet on the south/eastern front.
Very sad about the severe losses in Central America......


Hi Pottery, I'm here, just not paying close attention. Looks like you're drying out a bit today. Did ya get all them buckets filled for the dry season yet?
See you all later. I have to go and drive about aimlessly in the Friday traffic, like everyone else. What a life......
Quoting RobDaHood:


Sorry, I got busy, I don't know that they're sending audio right now...All I'm getting is a video stream. Probably have the mic off.


Do you know where they are at now? Is it in Winnie, TX where they are unloading?
LOL Rob, got an inch overall. Less than it looked on the sat. images etc. But enough for now.
Laters...
seastep:no love/respect lost!!!!
gom really getting rough,brb...ima go see if i can take some pics for everyone!!!
Watching the live cam. Is that BillyBadBird in the striped shirt and his little white dog?
Quoting lawntonlookers:


Do you know where they are at now?


Thinking that's the Chambers county dist. center. Not 100% on that. Haven't been into chat because I have to change some proxy setting and haven't had time yet. You might try that.
Very interesting watching the Cam, and seeing them driveing and now unloading.
audio not on, just the live chat and cam - both of which are very cool, they are at a fire station, i think unloading jo
Good afternoon. Just checked the rain gauge and we received 2.75" at my house in Panama City Beach. Good bit of wind but never saw gusts to 40MPH like Ike did up in Defuniak Springs.
57 -- they hope to add the audio in Bolivar.
everyone 54 degrees wensday for broward wow
All models agree to make Florida totally sunny next week with a cool continental breeze!
Could the season be over? :D
Quoting BeanTech:
/em>


Bean, If I had a way to get it too you, you'd be welcome...

Just a little longer now, hang in there
Sunday morn low here in the coastal FL panhandle 48 degrees. Best get the gas turned on in the fireplace!
Afternoon everyone! Getting ready for another round of heavy rain here in beautiful, "sunny", SW FL. Hoping things clear out in time for the Autism walk here tomorrow morning.
For those not folowing the Portlight Ike releif, they are along the Gulf Coast with live CamLink
OK y'all....the Portlight truck is on the Bolivar Peninsula and are heading to Crystal Beach to repatriate BillyBadBird!

Please join us.

Here's the live stream link


Come on!!

they are now driving thru an area once populated with beach houses, i cant believe it still, even seeing it
You can really see the damage on the Portlight cam. And the power companies restoring ower.
Rollover Pass bridge
The sand pushed along the roads look like a snow blizard went through. Great cam shots and live.
So. Did the official death toll for Ike ever go up to account for the 300-400 missing?
Is there a guess on the death toll for Ike?
51 dead the last count i heard, and even that the government is covering up the real count of the bodies found on Bolivar in the days following. who knows.
low off the NE tip of the yucatan moving NE foward south FL.....
Number of missing from Texas after Ike is now at 114 people.
Some more unloading in Bolivar. Probably food items picked up at the last stop.
Quoting pcbdragon:
Is there a guess on the death toll for Ike?
many may they rest in peace
the dead we can do nothing for its the living thats the most in need
Thursday, October 23, 2008

SW Florida: A harmful algal bloom has been identified in
patches in the southern Lee/northern Collier County region
and in northern Lee County. Patchy very low impacts are
possible today, Friday, Saturday night and Sunday in
northern Lee County and the southern Lee/northern Collier
County region. Patchy moderate impacts are possible in
northern Lee County and patchy low impacts are possible in
the southern Lee/northern Collier County region Friday
night and Saturday. Additionally, harmful algae have been
identified in central Collier County. No impacts are
expected in central Collier County or elsewhere alongshore
southwest Florida today through Sunday, October 26.

Whassup Holmes? (APOD)
Back to work...
Afternoon Keeper. May I say Eddie is looking particularly purple and scary today.
eddy will be gone soon just like this season winter is fast approaching
Does anyone know what happened to that teenager whose parents did not want to flee to safety the evening that Ike was coming ashore. She sounded so frightened and stuck in a bad situation I would like to know the outcome. I have thought about it ever since Ike hit. Glad the shear will keep us safe for the end of the season, but there is always next year. Look forward to finding out about the winter season and how the solar cycle plays out into next season.
Quoting fireflymom:
Does anyone know what happened to that teenager whose parents did not want to flee to safety the evening that Ike was coming ashore. She sounded so frightened and stuck in a bad situation I would like to know the outcome. I have thought about it ever since Ike hit. Glad the shear will keep us safe for the end of the season, but there is always next year. Look forward to finding out about the winter season and how the solar cycle plays out into next season.
that turn out to be a troll having some fun
Death toll stands over 100+ in Texas, 202 still missing, I know many people in Texas who email to me quote "Sadly, and I hope i am truly wrong, but those 200+ missing are likely dead."

Deadliest hurricane to ever hit Galveston since 1900. Most destructive hurricane ever to hit Texas, 3rd most destructive hurricane ever.
Link

this is a link to chat for ike relief come on over use your wunder ground handle show your support just by signing in
88. IKE
From the afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL....


Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion has been ongoing this
afternoon mainly in portions of Franklin and Wakulla counties. There
have also been reports of erosion in Bay and Walton counties from
high surf. The coastal flooding has generally been around 2 to 3
feet above normal in Franklin County with about 2 feet above normal
in parts of Wakulla County. This flooding was due to the fact we had
persistent onshore winds...much stronger than expected (as high as
35 to 40 knots) this morning across the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Will continue the coastal flood statement for Franklin and Wakulla
County issued this morning through 8 PM EDT...when the winds should
be shifting offshore.
It's very sad that such a fascinating tropical season had to come with so much death and destruction. As interesting as it was at times I will be glad to see this one in the books.
90. IKE
IKE.....

Quoting captainhunter:
It's very sad that such a fascinating tropical season had to come with so much death and destruction. As interesting as it was at times I will be glad to see this one in the books.
capt this one has a lot of interesting things going into the books
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


Thanks for the link. Same as WU username and password. Wish I would have tried it earlier.
Out for the day.
Buoy 200 miles South of Dauphin Island Al.

Winds are now gusting 21 knots out of the NNW. That should make Surfmom happy. A nice swell should start building down towards the S.W. Florida Gulf Coast.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 70.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 62.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Ike 88.... Major white caps on Choctaw. Bay today.
The Captain is headed for the rum. Have a good weekend everyone.
Quoting IKE:
IKE.....



imagine if it actually stayed on the track towards palm beach county, where i live. i don't panic when hurricanes come, but when i first heard it jumped from a category 1 to a category 3 in 3 hours, i freaked out and i thought it was going to be a category 5 when it got here.
Whilst everything is quiet, I wonder if I could ask my fellow Wunderground hangers out to take time to go to www.ipetitions.com/petition/mrv and help my village in Belize, Monkey River, combat a serious environmental problem.

In brief, we are losing 16 feet per year of foreshore every year due to water extraction by agriculture up river. This extraction and other misuse such as temporary damming, farming to the edge of the river etc. means the river over the years has run slower and more shallowly. This in turn means that sand and silt cannot be carried down river and deposited at the river mouth as it used to be.

Nature was once allowed to give with one hand what the sea’s tides and current took away with the other. This no longer happens. In less than 20 years we have lost 36 acres of foreshore – two streets of houses and a football field. Twenty homes are under immediate threat – all owned by poor local village people.

A study has shown that dredging, combined with working with the agriculturalists upstream to improve their practices, would provide us with an environmentally friendly and sustainable solution. Our task now is to gain support from Belize and throughout the world for our efforts, so that we can show our government how much people care about even a little place like Monkey River.

Please do take a moment to sign, you can do it anonymously if you prefer, and you can also leave a comment. The link does not always work first time, try cutting and pasting into your browser. We will be very grateful to each and every person who takes a minute to help save our homes from certain destruction.



Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Could the season be over? :D


Sure its possible, but I dont think so.
Not boring??? just relax and enjoy to check every 10 days!!

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

May 21-31: Arthur
Jun 01-10: ---
Jun 11-20: ---
Jun 21-30: ---
Jul 01-10: Bertha
Jul 11-20: Cristobal, Dolly
Jul 21-31: ---
Aug 01-10: Edouard
Aug 11-20: Fay
Aug 21-31: Gustav, Hanna
Sep 01-10: Ike, Josephine
Sep 11-20: ---
Sep 21-30: Kyle, Laura
Oct 01-10: Marco
Oct 11-20: Nana, Omar

Paloma will be next?
Oct 21-31: ?
Nov 01-10: ?
Nov 11-20: ?
Nov 21-30: ?

--- mean no storm named!
Thought that this was interesting - hadn't seen it posted...


US Plans $8 Billion Super Storm TrackerBy Oren Dorell, USA Today

-- The U.S. government is looking to launch a new and powerful weather satellite that will be better able to pinpoint where hurricanes and tornadoes may strike.
The Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite, called GOES-R, will possess technologies not found in weather satellites such as the ability to photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds and capture images of cloud-to-cloud lightning that can precede tornadoes.
Keeping a Closer Eye on the SkyNASA / AP4 photos The government plans to build a powerful new weather satellite that will improve the forecasting of hurricanes and tornadoes. Using new technology, the satellite will photograph hurricane storm tracks every 30 seconds, up from the current 7.5 minutes. Here, Tropical Storm Fay churns over Florida Aug. 20.(Note: Please disable your pop-up blocker)


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will award the contract for the nearly $8 billion system in December.
"If you tighten the error associated with the storm track, that means fewer people you have to evacuate, which saves money, and getting the timing right saves lives," said Mike Ruggles, program director for the Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite at Raytheon.
Raytheon is one of two companies competing to process the data produced by the satellite.
Ruggles said he hopes the satellite will give a five-day hurricane forecast the accuracy of a three-day forecast.
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2008Hillary Hodge, AP12 photos Waves whipped up by Hurricane Omar smash against a waterfront road Oct. 15 in Charlotte Amalie in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. After drenching Aruba with heavy rains, Omar weakened and headed into the open Atlantic Ocean. It regained hurricane strength again briefly before it dissipated.(Note: Please disable your pop-up blocker)

Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at private forecasting company Weather Underground, agreed the satellite will provide better short-term predictions about a storm's intensity.
He said he does not believe that the satellite will improve landfall predictions for hurricanes by more than "another few percent."
The $7.6 billion system, which includes ground support and two satellites, is scheduled to be launched in 2015.
NASA has been launching weather satellites since the 1950s. Current satellites, which orbit at an altitude of 22,300 miles over the same spot, have been in space since the early 1980s, and will quit working soon because of old age.

The new satellites will scan the continental USA every five minutes, compared with every 15 minutes now. It will take a snapshot of a storm area every 30 seconds, compared with every 7.5 minutes now, says Steve Goodman, NOAA's program scientist for GOES-R.
The lightning mapper, a first, will help forecasters predict tornadoes that often form in severe thunderstorms, said NOAA. Most tornado warning times, now 13 minutes on average, will grow by 50%, Goodman says.
"Anytime you can have more accurate information and have more time to prepare for a potential strike of a hurricane will be beneficial," says Mark Sloan, emergency management coordinator for Harris County, Texas.
Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Add USA Today News Feed to My AOL
Not boring?? Just relax to check every 10 days!

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

--- mean no storm named

May 21-31: Arthur
Jun 01-10: ---
Jun 11-20: ---
Jun 21-30: ---
Jul 01-10: Bertha
Jul 11-20: Cristobal
Jul 21-31: Dolly
Aug 01-10: Edouard
Aug 11-20: Fay
Aug 21-31: Gustav, Hanna
Sep 01-10: Ike, Josephine
Sep 11-20: ---
Sep 21-30: Kyle, Laura
Oct 01-10: Marco, Nana
Oct 11-20: Omar

Palmoa will be next????
Oct 21-31: ?
Nov 01-10: ?
Nov 11-20: ?
Nov 21-30: ?
Quoting 15hurricanes:
Not boring??? just relax and enjoy to check every 10 days!!

2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

May 21-31: Arthur
Jun 01-10: ---
Jun 11-20: ---
Jun 21-30: ---
Jul 01-10: Bertha
Jul 11-20: Cristobal, Dolly
Jul 21-31: ---
Aug 01-10: Edouard
Aug 11-20: Fay
Aug 21-31: Gustav, Hanna
Sep 01-10: Ike, Josephine
Sep 11-20: ---
Sep 21-30: Kyle, Laura
Oct 01-10: Marco
Oct 11-20: Nana, Omar

Paloma will be next?
Oct 21-31: ?
Nov 01-10: ?
Nov 11-20: ?
Nov 21-30: ?

--- mean no storm named!

If you look at the peaks of the season it looks like were leaving one so my forecast one more storm before November and one storm in November maybe two, is that too many storms?
I think the Indian Ocean is flaring up That might be where our next storm is
What's up y'all?
I have been out most of the afternoon.
Any Cat 5's in the Atlantic Basin yet?
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all4hurricanes, what is your problem? I never heard about paloma? i will check NHC soon!!!
Quoting 15hurricanes:
all4hurricanes, what is your problem? I never heard about paloma? i will check NHC soon!!!

It was a joke I thought it was obvious
(they need a sarcasm button here)
111. DDR
Hello all,very slow blog today i see.
Pottery,Here @ my location 10.5n 61W(trinidad)i've recorded 1.4 inches today,1.75 yesterday & 14 inches of rain since oct-1st.My Backyard is a temporary swamp with plenty frogs and dragonflies.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Buoy 200 miles South of Dauphin Island Al.

Winds are now gusting 21 knots out of the NNW. That should make Surfmom happy. A nice swell should start building down towards the S.W. Florida Gulf Coast.

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 70.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 62.2 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure


I don't know still blowing ese-sse in swfl, don't think the front will be able to build much more than skim conditions for me and surfmom. Been gusting pretty good all day out of the e and ese. Where are you with NNW winds? Upper gulfcoast?
Hi all. Haven't been here in a solid month.

101 Inthecone: Yeah, I'll have to agree with Dr. Masters a bit on the effects of GOES-R capabilities. The increased frequency of TC coverage will help just a little with storm motion when beyond radar range and some on structure, but the real benefit will be for the severeWX coverage.

What data we can get from GOES-R for model inputs will help a bit with model forecasts some, but this system isn't all that different than what we already have, just younger and with a better temporal and spatial resolution.

BTW, how old is this story? The whole GOES-R breakout party was at the AMS meeting last January.
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft

Only 8.9 feet? Usually when the wind reverses direction after a couple days in the opposite direction it is a little higher than that.

Amazing that the GoM can have 1 foot waves for a solid week and a cold front comes through and kicks up the waves that much. This is why the marine community is appreciative when the wave modelers get it right.
Hancock family settled in Barbados in 1654.

But my last name was Hancock too! LOL

Mel Fisher found alot of gold or silver near Key West, Florida in 1980's, when two spanish ships wreck by hurricane in 1622!!
15 hurricanes you right, Paloma : Nov 1-10 or so.
Visible of gulf of mexico, looks like a little spin on the n.w. corner of Honduras. I dont think it will have much time before it moves off to the n.e., but pressure is dropping -.04 to 29.88 last hour. Thats the nw buoy in Carribean.
Evening Everyone...

here south of Savannah and it is BLOWING HARD and raining in sheets. This is more wind that I've seen with any of the storms that have come through in recent times. Daughter is going to homecoming this evening and we may have to get her there by BOAT...not sure if roads are going to be passable...may not be going. The wind is incredible...haven't seen anything like this. Amazing.
Quoting caneswatch:


imagine if it actually stayed on the track towards palm beach county, where i live. i don't panic when hurricanes come, but when i first heard it jumped from a category 1 to a category 3 in 3 hours, i freaked out and i thought it was going to be a category 5 when it got here.


I did too, even Dr. Lyons stated that he thought it was possible that Ike could have hit Florida as a Category 5.
105. vortfix

Wow Vortfix, do ya really think this pot needs stirring? (LOL)

Quiet in here tonight. After watching that drive down the Bolivar, I felt the need for more than a moment of silence. Words just can't do justice to the situation. Neither can aerial or still photography. To see it from a dash cam really brought things into perspective. My heart goes out to all those who have lost so much this year.

SJ, Press, Emmy, and so many others, you are such heros, in spite of your humble attitudes. What you are doing means so much, Thank you!

Boo!
O.K., since it's sooooo dead in here, do you think the Bulldogs will beat the Tigers tomorrow?
Nothing............except when the Bulldogs show up in Tiger stadium tomorrow........that will be a pwerful storm!

Link
Whatever.......GEAUX TIGERS!!! G'Nite
back home from friday fantasy fest, at noon it stoped raining, at noon street fair started, with dress ups and street dances, at noon big wreck on boca chica bridge no traffic into town, can't get there from here!! where was I? wrong side of bridge of course, 3 hrs it took for road to get cleared, no one hurt, pepsi truck jack knifed, lucky there are drinking holes on boca chica (10 miles from key west) totaled about 15ft of railing on bridge lucky it didn't go overboard, now only one lane coming into key west instead of 2, on the biggest party of the year, can you say major back up baby,
Hey brat,

you still causing trouble down there?
You're home before 9pm on Friday. You slippin?
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hey brat,

you still causing trouble down there?
hey rob, if i didn't brush my teeth an do my hair I may have missed the whole thing, LOL but the time the traffic cleared was a happy camper, thanks to purple joe on big coppit, LOL
LOL,

so did you manage to partake of any of the festivities?
Quoting RobDaHood:
You're home before 9pm on Friday. You slippin?
NO not one little bit, if you have seen the sights I have seen today you would have run away screaming as well LOL, bunch of mates carrying on at the homestead,
'kay, won't ask for details on that!
Pity, I wished good weather for you all day, and you're stuck on a bridge. Glad to see you're in good spirits. Rather dead around here tonite.
Quoting RobDaHood:
LOL,

so did you manage to partake of any of the festivities?
hello, no truck wreck is going to stop me, LOL beer in hand as we speak
Quoting keywestbrat:
hello, no truck wreck is going to stop me, LOL beer in hand as we speak


that's ma girl!
Quoting RobDaHood:
'kay, won't ask for details on that!
Pity, I wished good weather for you all day, and you're stuck on a bridge. Glad to see you're in good spirits. Rather dead around here tonite.
actually we were sitting there for about 20 mins, on the wrong side of the 2 lane, but managed to turn around and go back to purple joes, and get a couple of brews, was there for an hour or two before the road cleared
134. keywestbrat

Okay, brat. I'm gonna get away from this screen for a couple hours. Stay safe & have fun.

back later,

-rob
Just checking in tonight to catch up on the action. Great to see that there is absolutely no action in the tropics this evening.

Just been going through the greatest week of my life and have been too distracted by a certain person to come on here and blog with you all. Been going great and I think that I may pursue a relationship with this girl.

But, I did have time this morning to update the CCHS Weather Center website. On my site, I updated the forecast for Florida and the Tropical Update page. Soon I will be adding a blog on my site where I will take certain questions and provide answers to them. If you all have any questions about weather that you would like answered in an easy-to-understand way, then just message me and I will pick a few each week to cover.

Well, have a great Friday night you all and enjoy your upcoming weekend. Will try to come here and blog with you all whenever I get the chance.
Quoting RobDaHood:
LOL,

so did you manage to partake of any of the festivities?
yep thats why we ran screaming lol, you have a good nite and catch ya later cheers
136. cchsweatherman

Right, nothing going on, so go have fun with your girlfriend...It's friday!

nite all!(for now)
139. MGB2
Hi, A long time lurker finally posting for the first time.

Doctor Masters quote:
Persistent low pressure and sporadic heavy rains will continue over the Western Caribbean for the next ten days. A strong cold front is expected to push southward into the area next Tuesday, and the tail end of this cold front could serve as the nucleus for a new tropical disturbance that will generate another round of very heavy rains for Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize late next week. Wind shear is expected to be in the low to medium range over the Western Caribbean next week (Figure 2), so we will need to be concerned with a possible tropical storm forming by the middle of next week along the old front. High wind shear is expected north of the Caribbean during the coming two weeks, and it is unlikely that any tropical storms will be able to affect the U.S. during the coming two weeks--with the possible exception of South Florida. No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

No kidding My wife and I have been in Puerto Aventuras 60 miles south of Cancun) for the last two weeks staying for one more. Man is it coming down at this very minute!

Cheers
Paul

God.....What would I give to be cchs age and know what I know now?!

a snapshot every 30 seconds vs 7.5 minutes!!!!....how cool is that going to be and it'll scan the U.S. every 5 minutes!!!!
DDR< you there ??
Quoting presslord:
God.....What would I give to be cchs age and know what I know now?!



You too?
its too late, Press.
Sigh....
G'day Pottery, how you doing mate, sheesh bloody india in the cricket what can I say, freakin thrashed by 320, hang my head
LOL Brat. Enough to make any self respecting Aussie do rash things,,,
Looking forward to the Stanford 20/20 games. Big money. Should be fun all round.
But I am a purist at heart. Test is IT !
Good evening elder statesmen Pottery and Presslord
Quoting pottery:
LOL Brat. Enough to make any self respecting Aussie do rash things,,,
Looking forward to the Stanford 20/20 games. Big money. Should be fun all round.
But I am a purist at heart. Test is IT !
actually couldn't care less about a test, but i opened my mouth,won't do that again, one days love them, and the new 20/20 just started those when I was in oz, but came back here, I think they are brilliant, action thats what we need :)
Brat-
" A free-flowing front-foot drive, though a sprawling cover, ricocheting off the boards. The episode observed by a beffudled Walsh from halfway down the wicket "

Ah! The poetry of live commentary. I wrote it down at the time, and never forgot it.




yup....youth is wasted on the young.....
orca....you ain't zactly a spring chicken either, dude.....
Greetings Orca.
The season is in remission. In need of treatment. Where will it come from.??
Quoting presslord:
orca....you ain't zactly a spring chicken either, dude.....


never said I was :)
Nor am I a statesmen, or a man of higher education like yourself and Mr Pottery :)
I am just a young retired Sailor doing my time :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Where the next one is coming from is easy to pick. Southern Caribbean... that being said.. ugly Blob coming off the CV
speaking of sailing....you and I need to do that someday....
Quoting presslord:
speaking of sailing....you and I need to do that someday....


I think I am going to Volunteer for the Next Victoria/Maui race.. take a vacation.
Quoting pottery:
Brat-
" A free-flowing front-foot drive, though a sprawling cover, ricocheting off the boards. The episode observed by a beffudled Walsh from halfway down the wicket "

Ah! The poetry of live commentary. I wrote it down at the time, and never forgot it.




dam know that guy can't think of the name, asking brother right now!! love the net, he is in oz instant conection, hope I am thinking about the right dude, mean time, damn muggy here
orca....that would be terribly cool...keep me posted...I'll get a vicarious thrill from it...
Orca, my inclusion, in the same sentence with Presslord, and the inference that I may have an education that is somehow comparable to his, is most flattering. heheheheheh
Alas, it is also untrue. 
I never did finish my schooling, much to the horror of all my family.
But that has never seemed to prevent me from having a pretty good time, all things considered.

Quoting presslord:
orca....that would be terribly cool...keep me posted...I'll get a vicarious thrill from it...


I have done the trip about 50 times on a destroyer, a 44 ft sailboat racing would be different :)
Gentlemen: I have a degree in Journalsim from the University of Georgia.....hardly a Wharton MBA.....but I like that us old guys can give each other crap....
Quoting pottery:
Orca, my inclusion, in the same sentence with Presslord, and the inference that I may have an education that is somehow comparable to his, is most flattering. heheheheheh
Alas, it is also untrue. 
I never did finish my schooling, much to the horror of all my family.
But that has never seemed to prevent me from having a pretty good time, all things considered.



Ahh your more like myself.. finished Grade 10 in school... after I joined the Military, I actually got up to and completed 2 years of a B Science
Indeed, Press. Crap is good.
Quoting presslord:
Gentlemen: I have a degree in Journalsim from the University of Georgia.....hardly a Wharton MBA.....but I like that us old guys can give each other crap....

HHmm that means you rites real gooder
I'm a real estate broker....and getting broker every day.....
Quoting presslord:
I'm a real estate broker....and getting broker every day.....


I know that feeling.. down 50% this month.. not fun
Yeah Orca. The south carib looks likely as hell. Hope with all my heart, that it stays away from Hon., Belize and Etc.
Pottery,
richie benaude, is that the guy :)
yea orca....it ain't pretty...but we're OK....when things were going crazy I insisted on us playing a very conservative game....and everyone thought I was an idiot...but the fact we weren't out on the edge means we didn't fall in when the ground gave way....
Real estate is falling off here too. which is bad for me. I am trying to sell an acre. Should have done it a year ago, when the market was going bananas. Oh well. I still have the land.

Exactly pottery...real estate will retain some value.....stocks can just go poof....
Brat, you know, I cannot remember..
But R.B. is a very likely candidate.
Great stuff man......
Quoting pottery:
Real estate is falling off here too. which is bad for me. I am trying to sell an acre. Should have done it a year ago, when the market was going bananas. Oh well. I still have the land.



We are not being hurt as bad as the States, but we are feeling it. Victoria had the hottest Real estate market in canada.. our place went from 309K to 489K in 18 months.
Quoting Drakoen:


You too?


Was that a compliment from Drak?
BRB, SWMBO'ed bellowed
my stock investment history has always been to buy high and sell low...:0
interesting "little swirl" east of the isle of youth,coming ashore onto cuba its evident on key west long range radar!!!!
cchs....I figured you'd be rounding the bases by now.....
Quoting stillwaiting:
interesting "little swirl" east of the isle of youth,coming ashore onto cuba its evident on key west long range radar!!!!


This one?
Evening everybody.

A friend of mine is "tying the knot" today in St. Pete Beach. I was not able to make it, but I sure hope it didn't actually rain there this afternoon. I know it's been pretty miserable both here and in S. FL since Wednesday . . .
Quoting pottery:
Brat, you know, I cannot remember..
But R.B. is a very likely candidate.
Great stuff man......
love that voice, need your eyes shut though, hehehe any way to hot for a full suit costume here in fantasy fest land 80F and calm, breeze ain't going to help you,
WOW Orca. thats a BIG jump.
When my son was getting married, 4 yrs. ago, I spoke to his girls folks and said " we should give them a house deposit", instead of an expensive wedding.
We did that, and had a great wedding too.
They bought a house for 470k, and sold it 3 yrs later for 1.4m. I was in construction for 12 yrs.
They bought land and built, and now have a brand new house, that they designed.
AND NO MORTGAGE. At the age of 30.
He is very pleased....
pottery.....no mortgage at 30 is mighty wise...
Sons wife has a good degree in Econ, and they are both smart as buttons. ( son gets that from his mother, I might add LOL)
Orca, that wave south of Verde. Lots of dry air to the north. Kind of early for that amount of dry air, IMO.
Evening all

Going to try and upload a few pictures from today. Hopefully they will take. For some reason my pictures have not been uploading. Tried to put four up twice last night. The one in Doc's blog is the only one that made it...

Been a very long day, I just can not rightly describe how rough things are on Bolivar. Truly sad. Yes there were some homes of the rich destroyed, but many of the Bolviar folks do not have so much.

After we deliver Pizza out there tomorrow we will take a tour of the Island.
Note- the figures I quoted are TT dollars. 6.20 tt = 1 US dollar.
yea,dat won.....its moving North....
You all are doing a fantastic job, Junkie.
Keep well.
Quoting pottery:
Note- the figures I quoted are TT dollars. 6.20 tt = 1 US dollar.


Damn.. and I was impressed with the size of the wedding gift you gave him.
LOL Orca. Sorry to burst your bubble. And remember, the other folks gave half.
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.
...and furthermore, with the way my business is right now, I'm thinking of asking him to give me back . LOL
Quoting pottery:
...and furthermore, with the way my business is right now, I'm thinking of asking him to give me back . LOL


For two retired gentleman.. we have way to much going on.. have you noticed that?
Quoting pottery:
WOW Orca. thats a BIG jump.
When my son was getting married, 4 yrs. ago, I spoke to his girls folks and said " we should give them a house deposit", instead of an expensive wedding.
We did that, and had a great wedding too.
They bought a house for 470k, and sold it 3 yrs later for 1.4m. I was in construction for 12 yrs.
They bought land and built, and now have a brand new house, that they designed.
AND NO MORTGAGE. At the age of 30.
He is very pleased....
pottery,
that is bloody brilliant, my dad thought the same way,
Sorry to hear you were hurt, Cbyr.
You have had a rough time there.
Could see a Nor'easter or a Sub-Tropical Cyclone out of this.

Yes Orca, I HAVE noticed that. And it is becoming a serious concern. I thought I would be in my hammock, with a beer, and people would come bye and leave in a few moments after dropping off their offerings.
Its just not happening.....
Pottery, you are not going to believe it, my brother just popped me (messenger), they haven't herd a word out of Richie B for yonks cause he is retired. And he was on the tele in oz, doing an interview, whats the odds dude :)
Long odds on that one, Brat.
Thats great...
Quoting pottery:
Yes Orca, I HAVE noticed that. And it is becoming a serious concern. I thought I would be in my hammock, with a beer, and people would come bye and leave in a few moments after dropping off their offerings.
Its just not happening.....


I had more time off and golfed every weekwhen I worked, then I retire, now I don't have time for anything... even the wife has told me to go golfing

BTW. does anyone watch Countdown with David Oberman? he is not only good.. but funny even
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see a Nor'easter or a Sub-Tropical Cyclone out of this.



Subtropical storm Paloma on the horizon?
Well Orca, thats serious man. And hanging around the house is getting to the wife too. Thats bad LOL
But seriously, you have got to find the time to get out on the links man. Otherwise, yr gonna get fat and unpleasant...
( do I sound like her ?? LOL)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.


I've only been in remnants of hurricanes:

1.) Hurricane Charley: I went to the outer banks for vacation after it hit. It was flooded everywhere.

2.) Hurricane Ike: The remnants caused a lot of branches to fall in my backyard, strong winds, and this large metal "stationary" swing flipped over into a bush.

3.) Hurricane Ivan: Remnants caused flooding around my area.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.


easily 4 and 5. 1,2, and 3 could have hit us directly but we were lucky.
Quoting caneswatch:


easily 4 and 5. 1,2, and 3 could have hit us directly but we were lucky.


oh yeah, wilma was bad as well. friend got injured indirectly, had to go to the hospital after the winds calmed, and he got 30-something stitches.
I Have never been in a hurricane. Do not want to either.I have seen the damage up close, in Grenada after Ivan. Incredible. A stone fort, built by the British hundreds of years ago, was blown away.
What kind of thing is that ???!!!
this one word you got too be kinding me



Link
Hi Taz.
These are crazy times.
Get the movie "Being There" and watch it. It is brilliant.
Puts the whole thing in perspective.
pottery,
what' the price of diesel at the moment at your place thanks :)
Well Brat, it costs me about US$ 12.00, to fill my tank from empty.
A Mitsubishi L200 Turbo 4 door pick-up. 2.5L engine.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.

2 direct hit I was lucky house took the storm well. Ridge vent blew out water started coming through the lights in the kitchen. My husband and son in law went up in the attic with pool noodles and a can of foam. They cut the noodles to fit between the joists and jammed them into the opening and then sprayed the foam. Stopped the water from coming in. Most were not so lucky. Whole concrete buildings fell into ruble. Craziest thing I saw after the storm passed was a mechanics building. The concrete building totally collapsed just ruble but the car in there was just sitting on the lift up in the air.
Quoting pottery:
Well Brat, it costs me about US$ 12.00, to fill my tank from empty.
A Mitsubishi L200 Turbo 4 door pick-up. 2.5L engine.
thanks for the come back pottery, but per gal or lit is fine
Brat, about us 1.60/gal
Gov. subsidies apply.
We produce and refine here.
mongral, I thougt the rain was over for us, it started to sprinkle, checked the radar and holly crap, nicking the room mates rum again, shoot LOL
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I've only been in remnants of hurricanes:

1.) Hurricane Charley: I went to the outer banks for vacation after it hit. It was flooded everywhere.

2.) Hurricane Ike: The remnants caused a lot of branches to fall in my backyard, strong winds, and this large metal "stationary" swing flipped over into a bush.

3.) Hurricane Ivan: Remnants caused flooding around my area.


The remnants of Ike was pretty interesting here as well; strong winds to 60 mph (never seen such high winds before from the remnants of a tropical system, usually just rain and a breezy day) and huge amounts of rainfall, boosting the yearly total so far to over 50 inches (one of the wettest year on record already). Also caused a lot of flooding problems around the area as well; several people were unfortunately killed, a local disaster declaration was also issued.

That was just a week after the remnants of Gustav, plus moisture from Lowell (East Pacific), the most tropical systems that I can remember passing through the area in such a short time (check out the rainfall amounts in September, though that wasn't very unusual considering the year so far).
Ok I'm out.
Have a great evening.
Watch the rum, Brat.LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


I had more time off and golfed every weekwhen I worked, then I retire, now I don't have time for anything... even the wife has told me to go golfing

BTW. does anyone watch Countdown with David Obermann? he is not only good.. but funny even
I've been watching Olbermann of late. I'm not much into this political-tv-watching-gig, but he's actually rather amusing at times.

Of course, for those of us on the OUTside, the whole US election is a real dog-and-pony show . . . (just my opinion, of course ;o)
the low to the ne of the yucatan is becoming a bit more energized and steering is still toward SWFL,the cold front appears to be losing some punch and flattening out orienting more west-east than north-south....could be a staller and that could cause a suprise TC on the tail end!!!
Quoting pottery:
Brat, about us 1.60/gal
Gov. subsidies apply.
We produce and refine here.
thanks pottery, price of diesil has come down alot here, car is diesil, so is boat, just thinking of the fishermen and shrimpers, government won't sub them, hwy in key west is 3.56 has to be a bit cheaper at the dock,
Quoting stillwaiting:
the low to the ne of the yucatan is becoming a bit more energized and steering is still toward SWFL,the cold front appears to be losing some punch and flattening out orienting more west-east than north-south....could be a staller and that could cause a suprise TC on the tail end!!!


Local met here is SW FL said to expect the front to stall. Didn't mention anything else though :) Will be interesting to see what unfolds.
sorry you lot, have been talking about cricket, fuel, cricket icons, fantasy fest, truck crashes, only a bit about the weather, bygones, cheers:)
from tpa south looks to be in for a rainy and breezy night as the gom is primed for heavy rain moving ashore overnight.....wondering if the yucatan low is getting some energy from the front???
Wow, SJ. Those pics are pretty sobering. . .

I keep thinking how the whole Ike thing has been so overshadowed by the political cycle. It's a good think people like u guys have gone to the assistance of residents there. Things are going to be even tougher there than in other places hard-hit by the economy or the earlier floods in the Mid-west. . . .
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just checking in tonight to catch up on the action. Great to see that there is absolutely no action in the tropics this evening.

Just been going through the greatest week of my life and have been too distracted by a certain person to come on here and blog with you all. Been going great and I think that I may pursue a relationship with this girl.

But, I did have time this morning to update the CCHS Weather Center website. On my site, I updated the forecast for Florida and the Tropical Update page. Soon I will be adding a blog on my site where I will take certain questions and provide answers to them. If you all have any questions about weather that you would like answered in an easy-to-understand way, then just message me and I will pick a few each week to cover.

Well, have a great Friday night you all and enjoy your upcoming weekend. Will try to come here and blog with you all whenever I get the chance.


Thanks for the eharmony update! Have fun CCHS!
Quoting keywestbrat:
sorry you lot, have been talking about cricket, fuel, cricket icons, fantasy fest, truck crashes, only a bit about the weather, bygones, cheers:)
it is going to rain like a mongral here in a few, having said that marathon is going to cop it again
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/map/interactive/USFL0244?from=36hr_maps&zoom =8&interactiveMapLayer=radar&animation=true
precip.forcasts are on the rise for central/south FL now......that little yucatan low may come our way sunday or monday!!!
Link
sorry mates link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.


Gee, that really sucks to hear. I hope another Isabel doesn't come your way at anytime.

Only ever had remnants here, and they're usually weak by the time they get here. Just bring a lot of rain, usually. However, windstorms can be pretty bad. It's kinda hard to decipher wind and rain from another batch of wind and rain, but Kyrill was by far the worst.

Still remember that like yesterday as we had little to no warning. Trees were all blown down, see the lampposts and other like objects sway violently like never before. People were still walking around, shopping. I even remember ambulance crews milling around in the town because people were literally being blown off their feet, a particular hazard for the elderly. Thankfully no damage to my home or anything, I was just stuck in another town for a few hours as all public transport was out, all huddled nervously in the bus station, fearing the roof would go.

As said before, from any videos on Youtube or anything of hurricanes, it felt like one. It acted like one. Winds sustained anywhere at the peak of like, 70 to 80 here, gusts up to 100. It was even worse in Germany, with winds of up to 120 over there.
1. Ivan. 13 trees and roof damage to both my home and garage. I live in a waterfront neighborhood altho my home isn't waterfront. I'm 13 feet above sea level and Ivans surge was 11 feet. Alot of my neighbors homes are/were around 6 to 10 feet above MSL. They were all mostly destroyed. 20 or so in my immediate area. It redefined my definition of a hurricane.
2. Toss up on the westside where I live 'twixt
OPAL and ERIN. ERIN sure knocked down a bunch of trees here. OPAL had more surge but the worst wind missed me by about 15 or 20 mile to my east. Same with DENNIS. It's eye passed to my east by less than twenty miles It was darn near a non-event tho in Warrington

3. All the rest are tied.
Eleana
Georges
Katrina
Juan
Frederick
Eloise
Hannah
Danny.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
DEPRESSION BOB05-2008
8:30 AM IST October 25 2008
========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, latest satellite imageries and observation from coast stations, ships, and buoys indicated that a Depression has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 16.5N 86.5E or 370 kms east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 400 kms south of Paradip, and 700 kms south-southwest of Calcutta.

Satellite imagery indicates organized convetion and curved band pattern in association with the system. The Dvorak Intensity associated with the system is T1.5. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gust of 30 knots and central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system's center.

Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 15.0N to 18.0N and between 83.0E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10-20 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots to north of the system. The system lies close to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. Sea surface temperatures over the region is 29C.

The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northerly direction.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I've only been in remnants of hurricanes:

1.) Hurricane Charley: I went to the outer banks for vacation after it hit. It was flooded everywhere.

2.) Hurricane Ike: The remnants caused a lot of branches to fall in my backyard, strong winds, and this large metal "stationary" swing flipped over into a bush.

3.) Hurricane Ivan: Remnants caused flooding around my area.


I haven't been in a single hurricane other than Cristobal... although I was away then.

1) Hurricane Katrina - No damage
2) Hurricane Rita - Minor damage to roof
3) Tropical Storm Laura - Loss of Freeview UK signals via TV ariel
4)Tropical Storm Cristobal - got caught in Outerbands while in states - it was nasty - minor damage to car.
Good morning.
Latest Gulf surface analysis:


Photobucket

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E US INTO THE W ATLC
WHILE THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA FROM
JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N85W
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N89W WHICH IS JUST W OF A
1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N87W. DENSE
CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING UPPER MOSITURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE W GULF MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST W
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO THE ABC ISLANDS.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 21N W OF 77W TO OVER
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE ABC ISLANDS.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I haven't been in a single hurricane other than Cristobal... although I was away then.

1) Hurricane Katrina - No damage
2) Hurricane Rita - Minor damage to roof
3) Tropical Storm Laura - Loss of Freeview UK signals via TV ariel
4)Tropical Storm Cristobal - got caught in Outerbands while in states - it was nasty - minor damage to car.

1)Hurricane Andrew (2 months old at the time)House was destroyed 'cause we lived in cutler ridge.
2)Hurricane Irene (1999)
3)Hurricane Katrina
4)Hurricane Wilma
5)Tropical Storm Ernesto (at the time)
6)Tropical Whatchamacallit Fay
Andrew was easily the worst. Wilma was second, although, if you ever get the chance to watch a hurricane in action like I did during Wilma (Hurricane Resistant Windows) you'd enjoy it. Katrina is a close third. Hearing those things on the power lines explode was pretty freaky. Ernesto was next, but for indirect reasons. Irene was an experience that I barely remember but will never forget. I was kinda fun. Fay just was... I dunno.
Morning everyone, weather here in Macon Ga is 56 degrees, overcast skies, 96 % humidity !!!
Wild time here yesterday, pine trees came down all over town, took out power lines, no lightning or thunder, looked like just nice steady rain until the winds hit us. Local Met reported in the Macon Telegraph(local paper) that we were hit by "gravity waves" within the storm. You guys will probably know what they are, I had to look them up. He said winds were clocked from 45 to 53 mph in Peachtree City.
239. IKE
Quoting RTLSNK:
Morning everyone, weather here in Macon Ga is 56 degrees, overcast skies, 96 % humidity !!!
Wild time here yesterday, pine trees came down all over town, took out power lines, no lightning or thunder, looked like just nice steady rain until the winds hit us. Local Met reported in the Macon Telegraph(local paper) that we were hit by "gravity waves" within the storm. You guys will probably know what they are, I had to look them up. He said winds were clocked from 45 to 53 mph in Peachtree City.


Here in the Florida panhandle...inland...winds were near 40 mph at my house...branches down...had a good 2-3 inch soaking rain...now a nice sunny weekend before the cold blast moves in Monday. Was the worst tropical weather I had all season...

My forecast for Monday night.....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 35 to 40.
Morning

Waking up to a very muggy and cloudy morning with approaching strong thunderstorms from the N.W.
South Fort Myers, Fort Myers, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 4 sec ago
75.6 °F / 24.2 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 74 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Pressure: 29.74 in / 1007.0 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 75 °F / 24 °C
Visibility: 4.0 miles / 6.4 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 300 ft / 91 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 14 ft / 4 m

241. IKE
And it's 54 degrees at my house this morning :)
Death toll mounts in Yemen tropical storm


By AHMED AL-HAJ Associated Press
Oct. 25, 2008, 6:29AM


SHIBAM, Yemen — Floods swept through southern Yemen after a tropical storm slammed into the impoverished country, leaving 49 people dead, a senior police official said on Saturday.

Hamid el-Kharashi, a police chief in the southern province of Hadramut, said the death toll is expected to rise as scores of people are still missing and hundreds of families are homeless or trapped by the rising waters.

More than 638 houses have been demolished by the flash floods in Hadramut alone, he added.

The tropical storm formed out in the Indian Ocean earlier in the week and headed north, hitting Yemen's remote Hadramut province on Thursday.

An Associated Press reporter in the historic city of Shibam watched a two-story mud brick house disintegrate in front of him as the distraught family stood nearby.

"The house was flooded so my family and 16 others slept with relatives nearby," said Ahmed Salam, as he watched his home collapse. They evacuated the night before as rushing waters began to eat away at the foundation.

Damage has been extensive throughout the Hadramut because most homes are made of mud brick.

In Shibam, a UNESCO world heritage site, the towering 16th century mud brick buildings are collapsing from the unfamiliar downpour and ensuing flash floods.

Shibam's tall, skyscraper-like mud brick houses earned it the name of "the Manhattan of the desert."

Karam Basalamah, a 60-year-old farmer, blamed local government corruption for exacerbating the damage by allowing illegal building in flood prone areas.

"Local officials authorized the building of houses in the flood plain," he said. "Now waters are diverted into the town, get trapped inside houses and cause them to collapse."

The province of Mouhra, sandwiched between Hadramut and the border with Oman to the northeast, was affected as well.

On Friday, Mouhra deputy governor, Salem Numier, said floods have cut off main roads, caused power outages. There was also a shortage in medicine and food supplies, he said.

Hadramut is Yemen's largest province and occupies a third of the country.

Yemen's national weather center said the storm was likely to continue through Saturday and warned fishermen and beach visitors of 16 foot (5 meter) high waves.

first morning with no wind and the sun out here in 5 days. wind swell waves are looking the best all week, probably won't last to long.
Hey Ike, will learn how to "Link" one of these days, but meanwhile, there is a video on gravity waves hitting a storm over Iowa on the NASA site: science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/19mar_grits.htm
Good Morning Everyone
42 Degress with light rain/sleet here in Chicago. Can't wait to get back to FLA.
246. IKE
Good morning to the north slope of Alaska....where their down to 7 hours of sunlight available.....

Barrow, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 31 min 29 sec ago
Light Snow
16 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 0 °F
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 7 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.82 in (Rising)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1500 ft
Scattered Clouds 2800 ft
Overcast 3400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 11.0 in
Elevation: 43 ft
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So while the tropics are quite, I guess we can discuss past hurricanes. I know a lot of you have been through a lot of Hurricanes, but from 1-5, name the worse Hurricanes you were ever in.

1.) Hurricane Isabel: Isabel was a hell like no other, I was critically injured in the storm, strong damage to my house, a tree fell over and ripped apart my shed. Many singles gone. No power for 2 weeks.

2.) Hurricane Charley: Almost tied with First for Isabel. Charley did extensive damage to my roof, blew out 2 windows and completely destroyed my fence in my backyard. No power for at least 2 weeks.

3.) Hurricane Floyd: Was pretty bad but no were near as bad as Isabel. Floyd caused moderate roof damage to my house (same house as I was in during Isabel, moved afterwords to Florida.)No power for 1 week.

4.) Hurricane Frances: Extensive Flood damage to my lawn, minor roof damage. Took a while to fix the lawn.

5.) Hurricane Jeanne: Moderate wind damage and caused a few singles off the house.

Isabel was deninetly the worst storm I've ever been in, it put a 2.5 foot wide tree on our house. We visited D.C about a month after the storm there were entire logs strewn across the pathway by the Potomic River in some areas the pathway was gone 2nd place actually goes to Hanna the biggest rain maker I can remember. We were in a little blob in VA that got 7 inches. Our pool overflowed for the 2nd time ever and a dry pond in front of my house had the water level rise at least 5 feet

I live near DC so I really don't get much exciting destruction and heavy rains are rare
where I live the storms split and surround us but don't hit us.
248. IKE
Quoting RTLSNK:
Hey Ike, will learn how to "Link" one of these days, but meanwhile, there is a video on gravity waves hitting a storm over Iowa on the NASA site: science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/19mar_grits.htm


Interesting....

Sunshine at my house this morning.....
Quoting IKE:


Interesting....

Sunshine at my house this morning.....
supposed to rain here but we need it
250. IKE
Quoting all4hurricanes:
supposed to rain here but we need it


Raining at the airport there.

Highs in the 50's...low in the 30's next week there.
1) Hurricane Katrina: 2Ft of water in my house and lost the roof
2) Hurricane Andrew: lost power and lots of branches
3) Hurricane Georges: Lost power and tree damage
4)Hurricane Gustav: Lost power for a week, yard was a mess
5)Hurricane Danny:
Have to check the yard for tree damage, BBL.
Ike,
I have been to Barrow, it is an amazing place to go you should go sometime...
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.
255. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
I have been to Barrow, it is an amazing place to go you should go sometime...


I've read up on it...always had it as one of my favorite cities on WU...I notice they have a pizza joint..lol.

Yeah...I wish I could visit it one time.
I guess being close to the water and cloudy conditions are keeping Barrow a little warmer.

Fairbanks in currently sitting a -3 degrees

Division of Forestry, Fairbanks, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 3 min 37 sec ago
-3.1 °F / -19.5 °C
Partly Cloudy
Windchill: -3 °F / -20 °C
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -7 °F / -22 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.15 in / 1020.9 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 8.0 miles / 12.9 kilometers
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 300 ft / 91 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 434 ft / 132 m

Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.


I bet Pat does the chicory in his coffee thing. Agreed, though.

Love the fall weather. I will take mid 40s in SE LA over the hothouse conditions every time you ask. I can put on enough clothes to warm up.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Isabel was deninetly the worst storm I've ever been in, it put a 2.5 foot wide tree on our house. We visited D.C about a month after the storm there were entire logs strewn across the pathway by the Potomic River in some areas the pathway was gone 2nd place actually goes to Hanna the biggest rain maker I can remember. We were in a little blob in VA that got 7 inches. Our pool overflowed for the 2nd time ever and a dry pond in front of my house had the water level rise at least 5 feet

I live near DC so I really don't get much exciting destruction and heavy rains are rare
where I live the storms split and surround us but don't hit us.


Hurricane Katrina here. I lived in Bay St Louis Miss. Lost everything I owned at the time. I was born and raised in Utah and had absolutely no clue what this storm was all about. I had absolutely no doubt I was going to die. By far the most scared I have ever been in my life. I'm sure many people here that have experienced a bad hurricane will agree. It's one thing to have a brief scary moment, but go through 6 hrs of it non-stop one time. 3 hrs of it in a tree in a neighborhood that looked like a big hand had come through and swatted everything away. Not something I plan on happening to me ever again.
Morning folks!

Winter is on the way, at least the birds seem to think so. Population has quadrupled virtually overnight. Might get a little storm here in a bit, but right now the sun is shining and my back yard sounds like a circus.
Torrential rain last night here in Englewood, FL (25 miles S of Sarasota). Severe thunderstorm brought 25mph gusts and nearly 3 in of rain in less than an hour. So far my rain guage has about 4 1/4 in for two days. Looks like Yucatan low will add a bit more. Swell is beginning to fill in finally. May be ridable later today. Surfmom ought to be happy! I am, haven't seen any waves in a little while now.
Morning everybody. It's great to see the sun for the first time since Wednesday morning . . . lol.

I think I'll run away and enjoy the day before the rain comes back . . . as it unfortunately seems it will . . .

At least there's no hurricane on the horizon this morning.

I think I'll go get a cup of coffee and sit on the front porch to drink it. . . .
Morning...

Just found out Richard Knabb is relocating wayyy out there in Honolulu as director of operations.Wish him the best of luck on his new promotion.
263. melly
I see everyone is posting of the storms they have been in:

I was in the Xenia, Ohio tornado of April 3rd, 1974. when I was a very young girl.
Went through Francis and Jeanne in 2004.
Went through Wilma in 2005 (yesterday reunion)
And my Spam was spared but my beer was warm.

Moral of the story, "Dont Follw Me"
Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.
I think something will form within next 3 days far east Atlantic; I know that would be unusual, but things are comming together. Also it will stay south, far south.
265. melly
Also, (let me know if I talk too much, I have been told I do) I was in North Pole , Alaska when my ex was stationed as a weather observer at Eielson AFB for 2 years. Now that was experience. Talk about cold..... It was unexplaineable. (Is that a word ) ¿
261. BahaHurican

sounds like a plan! In fact, that's what I have been doing for the last couple hours and will probably spend most of the day out there.

263. melly

Hey melly, thanks for the warning..lol
Might post about my experiences later today, for now just dropping in to say hi! then back outside.
Quoting Patrap:
Fall, hot coffee..and a slow tropics..

The Saturday is a good one.


Absolutely!!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I guess being close to the water and cloudy conditions are keeping Barrow a little warmer.


Barrow has been having an epic heat wave for the last couple months, at least (if you can call this a heat wave, seeing that the actual temps are well below freezing):



That brings back memories of winter 2005-06, which had above normal temperatures here for 45 days straight, including all of January; the cold came back in February to bite though. Not all of Alaska has been that "warm" though, Fairbanks is pretty much the opposite:

Quoting sebastianflorida:
I think something will form within next 3 days far east Atlantic; I know that would be unusual, but things are comming together. Also it will stay south, far south.
only other possibilities are west of Bermuda, that would shoot up north east, and between Florida and Yucatan that would run into SW Florida as TS, but unlikely to form.
good AM STL loook at this




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS JOINED THE GFS IN SUGGESTING THAT
ENERGY FROM WESTERN PACIFIC CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE THE JETSTREAM
AND DEVELOP AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AMSU SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A ROBUST
2 INCH P.W. PLUME
LIFTING NORTH JUST EAST OF JAPAN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A 979MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE 06Z GFS JUST CAME IN VERY SIMILAR...INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.

EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
FIRST SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUS
GFS AND CANADIAN WERE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THIS...SO WE CURRENTLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WOULD BEGIN FAIRLY
HIGH...WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET INITIALLY. ON FRIDAY...A 145KT JET
BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND DYNAMICS INTO THE
TROF...INDUCING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...HALLOWEEN NIGHT COULD BE SHOWERY AND WINDY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES HERE AS
THE 06Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT ONTO THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WE WILL CERTAINLY HOPE FOR SLOWER TIMING. BUT THE GFS
HAS A 60KT 850-700MB LOW LEVEL JET TAKING AIM AT CENTRAL CALIFORNIABY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS PLAYS OUT...SATURDAY MAY BE A VERY WET AND
WINDY DAY WITH A TRUE SOAKING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
.
ALSO...SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY DROP BELOW ALL MAJOR MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND CREATE OUR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEKEND IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WE WOULD ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE MUD SLIDE AND
DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES NEAR AREA BURN SCARS FROM SUMMER FIRES. WET
WEATHER MAY VERY WELL LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE 06Z GFS IS MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN/ECMWF IN KEEPING THE TROF MORE
CONSOLIDATED.

AT THIS TIME WE WILL MENTION THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION IN
THE HWO AND AFD. THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ISSUING AN SPS
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. SG
Atlantic just about shut down, Just like in Hells Kitchen, when Ramsey yells "SHUT IT DOWN"
272. GBlet
Good morning! Well,our little city has swelled to twice its normal size with hunters. Seems crazy to think it's hunting season again. I love to hear the ducks and geese. Hate to hear the gunshots though, reminds me of city life. YUCK!
273. melly
Taz..Are you going to come on here again and say (one month ago ) that the season is over.? Sorry, just kidding you, I listened to your posts, but I think you jumped the gun this year, but i still love you.
275. IKE
Ain't love great!

Weather out my back door>>>>

61.2 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.05 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
I know what all4hurricanes mean.

I found it out myself for more than 10 years ago!!!!!!
277. melly
IKE.....Lookin' out my back door

"CCR"
Give the Atlantic a week or two.

Then we might see a storm, a second if we're unlucky.
Newspaper in Naples, Florida on Tuesday, May 17, 2005:

The Atlantic has seen above-average hurricane activity almost every season since 1995, when a change in deep ocean currents began bringing warmer surface temperatures to the basin.
Quoting 15hurricanes:
Newspaper in Naples, Florida on Tuesday, May 17, 2005:

The Atlantic has seen above-average hurricane activity almost every season since 1995, when a change in deep ocean currents began bringing warmer surface temperatures to the basin.


They're referring to this.
281. melly
Cotillion..Hot off the press of Tin City I see
Quoting melly:
Cotillion..Hot off the press of Tin City I see


Yeah, sure. (Why the Tin City, anyway? Has it got anything to do with tin, lol?) Still, same applies, perhaps for another couple of decades yet.

Quoting Cotillion:


They're referring to this.


The difference between 1994 and 1995 is pretty impressive and shows how abruptly the AMO can switch; when it goes negative, it will likely be just as quick:

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Yes, quite the change in temperatures. 'course where I am, there is apparently a 1.5C positive difference. Trust me, it makes no difference. It goes from bloody cold to... still bloody cold. Still, for the hardy of us, take a lot more than chilly waters to stop the surfers.

I guess from 2015 onwards, we'll have to monitor it to see when it does change back. I guess measuring the AMO and predicting when it'll swap back is pretty difficult, as they don't understand the oscillation well enough yet, I suppose.

Any way to disentangle AMO's influence on SSTs and that of GW?
Come on and join us for another live cam ride through the Bolivar Peninsula!
About ready to pull out.....all aboard:


Live Cam Link
286. melly
Cotillion, All of my family lives in Collier county, I am in Palm Beach county. Guess what I mean to say is, It is so freekin' hot in Naples compared to Palm Beach county. My parents lived in Highlands county, Lake Placid, it was freekin' hot there also. I'll take the east coast any time
Quoting melly:
Cotillion, All of my family lives in Collier county, I am in Palm Beach county. Guess what I mean to say is, It is so freekin' hot in Naples compared to Palm Beach county. My parents lived in Highlands county, Lake Placid, it was freekin' hot there also. I'll take the east coast any time


So hot it melts tin!?

Right, gotcha. ;)
288. melly
It is so hot and melts tin, and when it melted it formed a new city. Hey, Let's call it Tin City
Quoting melly:
It is so hot and melts tin, and when it melted it formed a new city. Hey, Let's call it Tin City


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)

Quoting Cotillion:
Yes, quite the change in temperatures. 'course where I am, there is apparently a 1.5C positive difference. Trust me, it makes no difference. It goes from bloody cold to... still bloody cold. Still, for the hardy of us, take a lot more than chilly waters to stop the surfers.

I guess from 2015 onwards, we'll have to monitor it to see when it does change back. I guess measuring the AMO and predicting when it'll swap back is pretty difficult, as they don't understand the oscillation well enough yet, I suppose.

Any way to disentangle AMO's influence on SSTs and that of GW?


That would give the cycle about 20 years of hyperactivity... after about 20 years of hypoactivity... after about 20 years of hyperactivity... seems pretty consistent, but reliable records don't last past that... not enough to base anything off of.
Quoting Cotillion:


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)



Lot's of interesting history - Cornwall.

Melly, Highlands wasn't so bad this summer. Last couple years were a lot hotter. 'Cept for a few rainy days it's been really nice the past 3 weeks. Oh, and right now, I'm probably cooler than you.

Live on a good sized lake though on east side so really moderates temps.
Quoting Cotillion:


I was just curious as I'm originally from the "tin county". Click on the flag to see why. (I guess these days it's fast becoming the surf county due to Newquay and so on. Haven't been "home" in a few years, though.)



But for a completely different reason. It doesn't seem too hot there.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Lot's of interesting history - Cornwall.

Melly, Highlands wasn't so bad this summer. Last couple years were a lot hotter. 'Cept for a few rainy days it's been really nice the past 3 weeks. Oh, and right now, I'm probably cooler than you.

Live on a good sized lake though on east side so really moderates temps.


Which lake?
HeHe...RobDaHood will never reveal the exact location of the batcave!
Quoting Cotillion:
Any way to disentangle AMO's influence on SSTs and that of GW?


Usually, from what I have seen, the signal is derived by subtracting global temperatures from the local anomaly; at least, this is done for the PDO, they mention detrending of the AMO here though doesn't say how they do it, though if you compare the AMO data and the raw SST #'s, the latter are higher for the end of the period than early on, suggesting an underlying warming trend; for example, for Jul-Sep 1858, 1908, 1958 and 2008 (50 years apart, data goes back to 1856):

            AMO index  SST anomaly  Difference

1858:
July: -0.170 -0.382 -0.212
August: -0.081 -0.295 -0.214
September: 0.061 -0.150 -0.211

1908:
July: 0.027 -0.067 -0.094
August: 0.010 -0.085 -0.095
September: -0.086 -0.180 -0.094

1958:
July: 0.187 0.210 +0.023
August: 0.184 0.206 +0.022
September: 0.235 0.259 +0.024

2008:
July: 0.262 0.402 +0.140
August: 0.226 0.366 +0.140
September: 0.253 0.394 +0.141

The anomaly is based on the 1951-1980 means, so this includes part of the previous warm AMO phase and the cool phase.

The AMO of course involves a lot more than just tropical Atlantic SSTs (wind shear, dust among others). Of interest is that it also mainly affects the number of major hurricanes, the strongest storms, much more so than tropical storms.
Also, as to the effects on temperatures in the U.K., here is a simulation of what would happen if the THC collapsed completely - not very pleasant (compared to pre-industrial temperatures, not current temperatures which are about 1*C warmer):



(Not quite the "Day after Tomorrow" scenario either though, the U.S. is relatively unaffected, this simulation is for 2050, assuming it collapsed right now, although we don't have to worry about that anytime soon; would also cause major shifts in weather patterns, storms, etc)
RobDaHood

Lake Placid is pretty nice. My parents have friends there on Lake June. There is a pretty good restaurant in Sebring on Lake Jackson, I think it is called the Sunset Grill. They say that they have the largest Oak Tree in Florida next to the restaurant
Quoting RobDaHood:
HeHe...RobDaHood will never reveal the exact location of the batcave!


I'm gonna take a guess and say Lake Trafford, or Lake Istokpoga.
Good morning all :)
I could find only one decent Blob in the whole Atlantic, that the CV one.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Also, as to the effects on temperatures in the U.K., here is a simulation of what would happen if the THC collapsed completely - not very pleasant (compared to pre-industrial temperatures, not current temperatures which are about 1*C warmer):



(Not quite the "Day after Tomorrow" scenario either though, the U.S. is relatively unaffected, this simulation is for 2050, assuming it collapsed right now, although we don't have to worry about that anytime soon; would also cause major shifts in weather patterns, storms, etc)


That's distinctly colder. Though not entirely unexpected, we're really quite warm considering our latitude. Don't anticipate living in England forever, so perhaps I'll have to go before 2050. ;)

Thanks for the last 2 posts, interesting as always STL.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

The only Blob I could find.


Click on image to enlarge
302. IKE
Quoting melly:
IKE.....Lookin' out my back door

"CCR"


LOL!
Quoting MisterJohnny:
RobDaHood

Lake Placid is pretty nice. My parents have friends there on Lake June. There is a pretty good restaurant in Sebring on Lake Jackson, I think it is called the Sunset Grill. They say that they have the largest Oak Tree in Florida next to the restaurant


Yes, there are a several good "off the beaten path" places to eat. Haven't been to that one yet, but have heard good things. And yes lots of big oaks in the county. Not a bad place to live, kinda peaceful and within a couple hours of Tampa, Orlando, WPalm, Sarasota, and central location works out well for me.

Not so much for nitelife, but I have friends up and down both coast if the mood strikes.

Sorry Hurristat, wrong. That was your one guess for the day!
Quoting RobDaHood:


Yes, there are a several good "off the beaten path" places to eat. Haven't been to that one yet, but have heard good things. And yes lots of big oaks in the county. Not a bad place to live, kinda peaceful and within a couple hours of Tampa, Orlando, WPalm, Sarasota, and central location works out well for me.

Not so much for nitelife, but I have friends up and down both coast if the mood strikes.

Sorry Hurristat, wrong. That was your one guess for the day!


Where is the Bat cave? Its right here.
Bat Cave, North Carolina
Wow that's a lot of pizza!
HI ORCA


Goin back outside for a while. Will check in later.