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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Atlantic quiet; Southern California fire event possible Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

The remains of Hurricane Paloma continue to spin over the Caribbean waters just south of Cuba, but wind shear is a high 30 knots, and there is virtually no chance that Paloma will regenerate. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of our reliable models are predicting tropical storm formation over the next seven days. There is an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to separate from the jet stream in the middle Atlantic just south of the Azores Islands 5-7 days from now, and it is possible this low could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm late next week as it wanders over the open Atlantic Ocean. Such a storm would only be a threat to shipping interests, and I am not expecting any more tropical storms this season that will threaten land areas. With wind shear expected to rise over the Caribbean later this week, and continue to remain at high levels until late November, it is likely that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2008 is finally over in the Caribbean.

Paloma clean-up continues
The recovery effort from Hurricane Paloma continues in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Paloma roared through the Cayman Islands Friday night and Saturday morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds, brushing Grand Cayman Island, but pounding the "Sister Islands" to the northeast--Little Cayman and Cayman Brac--with its northern eyewall. The hardest-hit Cayman island was Cayman Brac, population 2,000. About half of the island's population is homeless, and 95% of the structures on the island are damaged and 30% missing their roofs. The Cayman Compass reports that electricity is still out to most of the island, though Internet and cell phone service have been restored. Damage was also very heavy on Little Cayman Island, which suffered damage to approximately 90% of its buildings.

In Cuba, leader Raul Castro said yesterday that Cuba had suffered at least $10 billion in damage from Hurricanes Ike, Gustav, and Paloma. Paloma was the least damaging of the three, accounting for $1.4 billion of the damage total. This year was the first time on record that three major hurricanes have hit Cuba.


Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008. At the time, Paloma was a Category 4 hurricane with 140-145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Southern California fire event possible this week
A moderate to strong Santa Ana wind event is shaping up for Southern California Friday and Saturday, as high pressure builds in to the north and east. The clockwise flow of air around this high pressure system will drive strong east-to-west offshore winds from the mountains to the ocean over the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for the mountain regions near Los Angeles, where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected Friday and Saturday. Very windy, dry, and hot conditions are expected Friday and Saturday over Southern California, and the San Diego area will see near record temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average.

Jeff Masters

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Terrible destruction in both Cuba and the Caymans...

Thanks for the updates Dr. M. : )
thanks !!
.
Thanks, Dr.
.
9n 42w has some circulation
Link
.
57. surfmom 9:25 AM EST on November 12, 2008
Morning Orca, We need to get those storms clouds out of your neighborhood - 2nd day of yuck weather?

when does your postal guy show? my postal guy said the canadian postal system is notoriously slow...now I found that hard to believe.. is it so.

Cause with that weather you and the Mrs. deserve some tropical sunshine delivered to your door.
Thx Dr. -- poor Caymans -- so harmless, such a gentle place to have to suffer the effects of a cane.....
I saw that critical fire weather area coming up
on the SPC website as early as Thursday. I hope it doesn't materialize for our brother & sister firefighters (& residents/visitors) out West. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-sw.html
Thanks for the update - happy to hear no more tropical storms.

Figure 1. Hurricane Paloma near maximum intensity at maximum intensity at 1:35 pm EST November 8, 2008.

hmmmmm.....

I'm glad that I am not the only one who does things like that.... :)
CRS
how cold is it going to get in south florida next week
Thanks, Dr.

2008 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons:

There are more major hurricanes in Atlantic than East Pacific this year!!! WOW!!!
6. JRRP, 2:48 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

Yeah, WOW!
THanks Dr. M. i dido your thinking.
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters !
14. 15hurricanes 7:18 AM PST on November 12, 2008
Thanks, Dr.

2008 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons:

There are more major hurricanes in Atlantic than East Pacific this year!!! WOW!!!



he sould have said this


there where more major hurricanes in Atlantic then they where in the East Pacific this year


then we can under stan what he was saying a little better
hurricane season is now overe
I see Doc gives CMC same respect as many here. LOL.

Link
I did update my blog this morning if anyone would like to review....

TampaSpins Blog Link
morning all

sorry to say but shuttle launch could be delayed

Link

will get more info on this as the day goes on
I wouldn't be surprised to see Paloma retired.
here's another news link

Link

what do you think?

I think they may launch

Fay and Hanna already delayed them
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I wouldn't be surprised to see Paloma retired.


I'd retire her because of the destruction caused on brac

but I don't know if they'll do it

have to check the loss of life (hope there's none)
Quoting Seastep:
I see Doc gives CMC same respect as many here. LOL.

Link


The CMC is an interesting model. Sometimes, it predicts storm formation that other models miss. Often times, it predicts storm formation that does not verify.

I think of the CMC as the paranoid uncle of the model family that keys off of subtle variations and runs wild with them. A lot of times, its just nonsense, but if it says something a few model runs in a row though, it deserves another look.
what's that? (besides saying its an area of interest)

Link

could it be the last one the Doc talked about?
28. 786
Thats a good looking and large system, the wind shear though will keep it in check however if and when it attempts to move N I think....
be back at afternoon or evening

re to 28:

I'll keep my eye on it but it does look like shear will keep it in check

thanks for your reply 786
Quoting newt3d:


The CMC is an interesting model. Sometimes, it predicts storm formation that other models miss. Often times, it predicts storm formation that does not verify.

I think of the CMC as the paranoid uncle of the model family that keys off of subtle variations and runs wild with them. A lot of times, its just nonsense, but if it says something a few model runs in a row though, it deserves another look.


Actully the CMC is not all that far off possibly.....as other models are hinting at something in that area also in about 96hrs.
31. IKE
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$
Ex Paloma back to yellow?
Quoting IKE:
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


$45 dollar fill up this week, down from $85 peak, I almost busted out the "Carlton Dance". I've had the car for 2 years now and that is the lowest it's been, it was $55 to fill up when I bought it.
Seems to go down about $10 a week
31. Ike - paid 1.94/gallon this morning...filled the tank up 1/2 way for $10!!!
36. IKE
It's running around $2.17.9 here in Defuniak Springs,Fl...we have a county tax of 5 cents a gallon to fund road pavements in Walton County.

I heard GM is losing over $1,000 on every vehicle they make. No wonder they need a bailout.
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol

38. IKE
Quoting hondaguy:
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$


Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol



Same here. I'm in sales and it's helped quite a bit.
39. IKE
12Z CMC no longer shows a Caribbean system. What it does show is cold-air heading into the SE USA....Link
DJIA*
8,468.71
-225.25
-2.59%
I do believe i told everyone the Dow would go down if Obama wins......I don't see it getting better any time soon. Many said his victory would make the Dow go up immediately....Think again.
look at close up vis. of ex-paloma. winds trying to reach the surface? time is running out
takes some time for the mkt to get use to us democrats. i dont write politics but remember a couple yrs ago i picked obama-mccain when no one had a clue. better at politics than weather have a good day
Ya your correct...

Quoting IKE:
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$

hey we got gas here at 1.71 a gallon in brownsville tx :)
dow down near 270 pts
hi
bump
extremely sloowww blog today
aiiii yaiii yaiii - I have a cat 5 of office work today & barn later -- need some sheer to take the paperwork away -- back this evening
MONTHLY RTN
+3.96%
WEEKLY RTN
+5.31%

looks like 2008 hurricane is over i see lots of shear in carribean and east of lesser antilles
53. IKE

DOW
286.42
-3.29%
8,407.54



Wall Street Shuffle
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!
NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!
Quoting conchygirl:
Gas here around $2.11. Liking it!


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

Quoting RobDaHood:


Hehe, did you think 5 yrs ago that you'd ever hear yourself saying that?

NASA Gives "Go" For Shuttle Launch on Friday!

Better set an alarm on my phone or I'll get busy and forget again.

Quoting hondaguy:
31. IKE 5:10 PM GMT on November 12, 2008
Gosh this blog is s-l-o-w.......

Price of a barrel of crude oil is down to $56.50.

Get ready for gas under 2 bucks a gallon. Of course, the economy is tanking...no one has any $$$$$$$$$$$$$

Gas is under $2 in western Louisiana, and nearly 3 weeks ago I heard gas was $1.99 in some parts of TX.

It's actually freeing up a lot of my $$$$. lol


Same here. I'm in sales and it's helped quite a bit.




Here in Bon Air,Va (near Richmond ) Gas is around 1.87. We've been under 2.00 for a week or more. AND that was this morning - might be even lower on the way home.
58. fribble

My girlfriend has about a 45 min commute both ways, 5 days a week. Even in the little econobox it got pretty expensive...Now if we can just do something about diesel...I got to the point that I just stick the card in and don't even look!
Miami is at 2.12 to 2.49 - depending on where you go.

It would be exciting to get under two dollars. Even at the current price its 1.45 per gallon cheaper than two months ago. Translates into 37.00 less per tank for my car.

Good that the storms didn't impact the oil fields more than they did this year.
Next year- 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

We'll see 4 hurricanes or MORE from January 1 to September 30 only!!!
I mean it !!!! I believe!!!!! (Not October 1 to December 31!)
60. zoomiami

The industry did a lot of work "beefing up" the platforms post Katrina. What worried me about IKE (energy-wise) was the potential loss of refinery capacity. That is where our real bottleneck has been in recent years. Fortunately no major damage.
Next year- 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

We'll see 4 hurricanes or MORE from January 1 to September 30 only!!!
I mean it !!!! I believe!!!!! (Not October 1 to December 31!)
hey folks.

Gas still at 2.17 here usually were are lower then the rest. Oh well at least its heading in the right direction.

Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.
64. Bonedog

...Amazing how fast the prices goes up yet so slow on the way down.

Noticed that huh? (grin) Yeah, I already had that conversation once today...Good to see ya BTW.
it is going to get to 53 in west palm beach for thanksgiving and a high of 68
RDH - I remember .99 gas in 2002 - seems forever ago. We can hope! ~) Back to work again!
Been a while since I posted on here...

Gas is below $1.90 where I am. Bowling Green, Ohio.
Good afternoon everyone. Just a quick glance and what is going on. Gas in my are is around $2.15. Maybe the dow will jump up before closing. I always get a laugh when the dow closes and you see all of the clapping even when it drops 400 points. You would think the people on the podium would show some signs of concern that it drops that much.
69. lawntonlookers

ahh, but you're forgetting...the brokers make money either way...
Yes I thought about that after I posted.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Yes I thought about that after I posted.


Figured you knew that, but I get your point...Seems like they would at least keep up the pretense of sympathy for those who just paid a good commission for the privelege of losing their shirts.
68. bgcatfan

welcome out of lurkdom, Bowling Green.

Wow, I was feeling really good about how much I saved on the last tankful and then you come along a blow it for me...(kidding)

have a nice one!
still $2.49 @ some stations here
Got gas for $1.89 at Exxon in Galveston county. Finally filling up a tank for $25.
Hey Rob.


Hell I rember gas at 80 cents! Me and my buddies used to fill up for around 10 bucks. Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot. Now that number gets blown by in a blink.


Just grinning thinking how fast the blog changes. A week ago fights were breaking out over talking about the markets and gas today nothing LOL
Amazing to me how there is still such a well defined circulation to "Paloma's Ghost". Wonder if she might be intent on a 3rd crossing of Cuba...Just a novelty, I know, but interesting.

(Thought I might as well throw out a weather-related post.)
on a weather note...

pretty nasty storm getting ready to go off. the cyclone over the plains will head to the coast and a coastal low will develope along its front. Looks like a good soaking rain for the next 4 days from the Great Lakes and Ohio Vally all the way to the coast and New England.
76. Bonedog

Hehe!
Tampa according to my father the economy will improve starting 1-2 weeks after his inaguration but thats because he thinks its a consiparcy :S.

Obama and his cabinet got a lot to do and 4 years to show that he can help to fix most of it in the 4 years now and possibly the four years after.
gas around 2.23 where I live at least the station near me average is around 2.37 as of Sunday.
I remember in 1999 I bought gas from a station in central New Jersey along the coast, near Asbury Park. It was a coastal station and the price of gas there was a mere 67 cents a gallon. I filled my car for 7 bucks and got just over 10 gallon of gas...

That's the cheapest I've ever seen gas
it appears a derechio is starting to develop in the gulf its in its infancy and hopefully sheer will kill it as with 95% of potential derechos.
76. Bonedog
Being a teenager 10 bucks was a lot.

Yeah, Times have changed, Had a converation like this with young daughter...

Daughter:
"Dad, the jeans I want are only One hundred dollars!"

Father:
"Who ever told you that the words ONLY and HUNDRED DOLLARS have any business being in the same sentence!"

Anybody want to go for orange circle on the remains of Paloma at 5pm. Pressure at 4 day low in nw carribean 29.84. Still no upper level moisture associated with it. Might bring a little more rain as its follows front line ne across fl. latter in the week.
on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.
Yea Rob times have changed alot. I was listening to a comedian talk about them today on XM. Some things were just plain funny.

example:

Today airbags My Time fat uncle Joe in the front seat.

Today RPG's My Time Astroids

Today active restraint systems My Time Mom/Dads arm

LOL and to think we survived back then LOL
88. IKE

DOW
389.00
-4.47%
8,304.96
OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
The Dow(n) Jones induistrial ahhhh remember when it was at 13,000... good times, good times...
RE 88 & 89

For some reason I like Bonedog better tha IKE today! LOL
84. Funny stuff...


amazing aint it
is upward mjo still supposed to happen?
95. 786
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
Only time I saw under $1.00 gas was in Georgea in 1998. It was 89 cents and I was like... woah!!!
Where I live gas has been over a Dollar since the early 90s and for a time in a late 80s.

and bone dog a year more would show a dramatic dip under 60. Oil is still extremely expesnive compared to other times. However with inflation gas should go no lower than $1.50 if it does that deflation may be occuring which contrary to poupular belief is far worse then inflation.
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!
Wow! Do we sound like whiners or what!
98. IKE
Quoting 786:
Popping in looks like nothing much going on, thats a huge blog in the Atlantic around 9N hopefully won't come to Cayman cause that will bring a lot of rain.

BTW Gas here is almost US$5.00 a gallon! I know ridiculous they get away with daylight robbery on this island with both petrol and diesal prices. Our electricity runs off diesal and one month for two people is about US$ 300 w/out AC and US$500 with!!!


Jeez...that's terrible.

Congrats to WSOP winner Peter Eastgate. Picks up a cool 9 million for winning the World Series of Poker. Youngest winner ever...at 22.



DOW
420.78
-4.84%
8,273.18
...bombing out like a cat 4 cane.
Does Cayman have anti-price gouging laws???
I'd expect it to go under 600 but its get too late for that but hen again it could hit -700 or it could go up to -200 who knows what late thing can ralley the market sometimes.
Out for the day. I see others are still watching the remains of Paloma. It still looks like a fairly strong low pressure. Have a great evening everyone.
101. lawntonlookers

Goodnight
98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Weather Summary (1800z 12NOV)
============================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER MAYSAK (T0819)
11.0ºN 115.0ºE - 25 knots 1004 hPa

reported as moving south slowly

Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "SIONY" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Pagasa Island.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
=========================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Siony located at 11.0ºN 115.2ºE or 400 km west-northwest of Puerto Princesa City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression "SIONY" is expected to bring rains over Palawan area which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 760 km East of Northern Luzon (17.4°N 130.5°E). The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow or earlier.
hmmm Palomas still there but not for long the front is sure to push what remains of her out.
30 knots sustained winds for 10 mins is still dangerous it borders a moderate strength TS.
107. IKE
Quoting Vortex95:
98. Ike

one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.


I was watching it on ESPN last night and fell asleep before it ended. My son has played in tournaments.

It is enjoyable to watch.

2nd place earned over 6 million.
Might be the way to go now adays. Sit in a casino having free drinks brought to you and at the end of the day possibly walk out with 9mil

thats a job I could get used to LOL
LOL look at this.. as the world went to crap more folks went to poker LOL

Main Event Entrants and First Place Prizes
Year Number of Entrants First Place Prize
2000 512 $ 1,500,000
2001 613 $ 1,500,000
2002 631 $ 2,000,000
2003 839 $ 2,500,000
2004 2576 $ 5,000,000
2005 5619 $ 7,500,000
2006 8773 $12,000,000
2007 6358 $ 8,250,000
2008 6844 $ 9,152,416
Wonder how long til we see them getting big endorsement contracts for soft drinks and tennis shoes?
Quoting IKE:


Jeez...that's terrible.

Congrats to WSOP winner Peter Eastgate. Picks up a cool 9 million for winning the World Series of Poker. Youngest winner ever...at 22.



DOW
420.78
-4.84%
8,273.18
...bombing out like a cat 4 cane.


At least oil prices are also doing the same:

Oil prices hit lowest points for almost two years

10 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices sank Wednesday to the lowest levels since the start of 2007, as traders worried about weaker demand for energy amid a gloomy economic outlook, analysts said.

In London, Brent North Sea crude slumped to 52.75 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since January last year and a massive 64 percent down on its record high of 147.50 reached in July, when fears of supply disruptions had sent prices rocketing.

New York's light sweet crude on Wednesday slid to 56.35 dollars a barrel -- a level not seen since March 2007.
106. Vortex95 8:49 PM GMT on November 12, 2008

---
Palawan and maybe Vietnam may have the redeveloping 24W.

Quoting MichaelSTL:


At least oil prices are also doing the same:

Oil prices hit lowest points for almost two years

10 hours ago

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices sank Wednesday to the lowest levels since the start of 2007, as traders worried about weaker demand for energy amid a gloomy economic outlook, analysts said.

In London, Brent North Sea crude slumped to 52.75 dollars a barrel -- the lowest point since January last year and a massive 64 percent down on its record high of 147.50 reached in July, when fears of supply disruptions had sent prices rocketing.

New York's light sweet crude on Wednesday slid to 56.35 dollars a barrel -- a level not seen since March 2007.


oil prices are even lower then that

$55.81
▼0.35 0.62%
Today marks the 2nd lowest close since the recession began
Just a note on something I heard on talk radio today - one of the financial guys that I listen to...I hadn't even thought about this...for those that are buyers of gift cards for holiday presents...this year may not be the year to do that for either restaurants or stores...considering how many businesses are folding right now, one never knows whether the store you purchased the gift card at will be around. Just a thought...I usually am the person who does the g/c thing...
BREAKING
NEWS
Dow ends with 400-point loss, pushing the 3-day drop to about 650, on concerns about retail and banking sectors

DOW
411.30
-4.73%
8,282.66

OIL
3.17
-5.34%
$56.16
117. IKE
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices settled at a 21-month low Wednesday as investors worried about a global slowdown in crude demand ahead of the latest U.S. government inventory report.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery settled down $3.17 to $56.16 a barrel Wednesday. The last time prices traded at this level was Jan. 29, 2007.

Wednesday is also the second day in a row during which oil traded below $60 a barrel, bringing the two-day loss to nearly $7.

The price of oil has steadily been declining for months, falling about 60% from July's all-time high above $147 a barrel as fears about global economic weakness continue to undermine demand for gasoline and other petroleum products.


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT
119. IKE
2nd cold front that moves through the SE USA the first of next week is forecast to make it all the way to Puerto Rico over into the SW Caribbean....

120. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:


pretty cool meteoriod explosion over Huntsville. Exploded with the power of 500lbs TNT


That is a cool video.
thanks IKE came from a link off of spaceweather.com

besides terrestrial weather I also watch outer space.
118. Bonedog

Thanks!
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)
no problem Rob
125. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:
119. IKE

Okay IKE, I like you again! (LOL)


Thanks....
Long time lurker but today I have a question. What happened to StormW. Have not seen any posts from him in a few days.
124. Bonedog

I know, but wanted to let you know I really appreciate it when somebody here with similar interest hooks me up with something cool like that.

Am a big fan of science and science fiction, esp anything space or robotics. When someone ask me how I know so many things about so many topics, I tell them I learned half of it from reading (good) science fiction since I was a wee lad. Politics, economics, physics, it's all there. That interest in reading led to to the point that I read anything I get my hands on. Still wish I could get out there (space) one day!
126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"
..................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .........................................................................................
DOW!! DOW!!! OH NO!!!!! AHHHHHHHHH
131. IKE
Quoting RobDaHood:
126. pitviper
Welcome!
Good question, he has been scarce...
From His Blog:Dated 11/10/08:

"I will be out of the office most of the week, but will be in the monitoring mode. I will update the blog should anything arise."

"Storm"


He doesn't post near as much in the winter time.
132. IKE
A cold weekend for the SE USA. 18Z GFS at 78 hours....

Thank you for the information.
I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$
Know what you mean Rob. I was the same way. I feel the more knowledge you garner the better decsions you can make.
Quoting Bonedog:
on the consperacy note (dont belive it but)

My wife said the other day, "Look how high oil and gas prices rose then right around election time prices stabalized then fell through the floor once the election started showing Obama ahead then winning."

Then she said, "Amazing what happens when an oil man leaves office."

not that I believe in the consperacy but is amazing the coincidence.


Hi Bone, Yes it was somewhat funny that the price of oil went up the last two years and right after the election it started to drop! I wonder who was in the majority the last two years and did nothing to control it. Wonder if someone wanted the economy to get bad just before the election??


This image of the northern polar region of Saturn shows both the aurora and underlying atmosphere(hexagon storm), seen at two different wavelengths of infrared light as captured by NASA’s Cassini spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona
Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.
139. 786
99. not really...we only have one electricity company and they can do just about anything they want as they are the only providers
Quoting Bonedog:
Jetmando my wife was saying it was because he wanted more money in his wallet before he left office. Sort of a retierment package.


I do not think he would benefit from the price of oil, but there were many countries that did! In addition, they try to say, “We are your friend”!! Please give me a break!!
I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$


Here it is as low as $1.89
In reality though, I read in mid summer that fuel prices were expected to increase, then decrease significantly this fall as refinery capacity came on line. Weakening economy has also caused people to be more conservative in their spending (including fuel usage).
October is often a volitile month for the markets, with the remainder of the year governed by how the markets perceive consumer confidence. This being an election year also contributes to the uncertainty of the markets, which will continue until the markets figure out "what to make" of Obama's policies. The bank crisis has been coming for a long time. Add to this the media hyping any bad economic news, it's pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy.

Not so much a conspiracy, but a convergence of events upon a point in time.
Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.
Quoting JetManDo:


I do not think he would benefit from the price of oil, but there were many countries that did! In addition, they try to say, “We are your friend”!! Please give me a break!!


OPEC for one; they are now complaining that oil prices are too low (believe they said before that they were too high... ).
As Dennis Leary once said, "Lifs a [female dog] get a [explicitive] helmet"


In my eyes its all realitive. If your the one making the money your loving this time, if your loosing your shirt you looking for the tallest building. If your somewhere in the middle your just looking to survive until it rebounds.

Thats the only light and silver lining.. our economy will rebound. when? who knows but eventually it will.

Another reason all hell has broken loose is due to the over inflated preices on everything. eventually that bubble was bound to burst and everything will come back into equallibrum and settle, albeit at where prices should have been all along and not at the inflated prices.
Quoting Bonedog:
I hear ya Jet. Just my wifes theroy. Him being an oil man she figured the higher prices put more in his pockets.



I know what you are talking about when you talk of the wife having a theory about things, as my wife thinks that the air conditioner technician is conspiring with the power co. to detune the A/C unit so the power bill is higher! I cannot win!!
Conspiracy theories are loads of fun though...

Time to figure out what's for dinner. Will check in later if anythings going on.
150. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Ike, it's better to look at the 2M temp than 850mb (1,500m above the surface). The mid and upper level temperature is going to be colder than the surface temperature.


Yeah...I know. MichaelSTL told me so the other day. I like the 850mb because it's easier to see the troughs.

Thanks though.
LOL Jet, do we have the same wife? Mine believes the oil guy adds dirt to the oil so that the filters and jets clog and we need to have a tech come out and repair everything which costs bundles. Especially at 2am on a sunday in 20 degree weather (don't ask)
the 850mb to surface diffrence, can that be estimated the same way flight level winds can derive surface winds? Like a 10% thing or something?
Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "SIONY" has moved away from the country and is now over the vicinity of Pagasa Island .

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3 (FINAL)
=========================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Siony located at 11.7ºN 113.5ºE or 90 km west of Pagasa Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated at 890 km East of Northern Luzon (18.0°N 132.5°E).

With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.

---
think PAGASA will finally be done with this "Quinta-Siony" cyclone.. =P
Quoting Bonedog:
the 850mb to surface diffrence, can that be estimated the same way flight level winds can derive surface winds? Like a 10% thing or something?


Not really. In the case of differential advection you have different air masses at different levels of the atmosphere. You're going to need to analyze each layer.
You could look at this, but as you can see there are a lot of limitations:
Link
India Meteorological Department
14:30 PM IST November 12 2008


  • A low pressure has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas. It is likely to become more marked during next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models indicate its initial west-northwestwards movement, leading to increase in rainfall activity over south peninsula.

    ----
    well they dropped the word "depression" to form in the future. (for now)
  • 151. Bonedog

    ...(don't ask)


    ROFLMAO

    hehehe...don't need to!

    I'm going to say there's a 50% chance that we will have at least 1 more named storm this year.

    Also, these are what I now think will be retired:

    Dolly (60% chance)
    Fay (55% chance)
    Gustav (99.99999999% chance)
    Hanna (70% chance)
    Ike (100% chance)
    Omar (40-50% chance)
    Paloma (60% chance)

    The rest I give less that 50% chance.
    heheh Rob

    Quoting Tazmanian:
    hurricane season is now overe


    its not over til its over... you said that once before, and what did we get? Paloma.... everyone, watch out for René...
    Rene? I thought it was Rosie?
    Rene would be correct

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

    2009 - Rose
    D'oh!

    That's ok....I'm still waiting for Felix to come back....

    No, problem. Had to check to be sure myself...I can usually keep the names straight..it's when we have 3-4 L numbers that I can't keep up!
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    Next year- 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:

    We'll see 4 hurricanes or MORE from January 1 to September 30 only!!!
    I mean it !!!! I believe!!!!! (Not October 1 to December 31!)


    Watch, Mother Nature's gonna be like: "hold on, 15 hurricanes, hold your horses. You got lucky this year. Next year, we're getting 3 hurricanes in that time frame. What you say, you get the opposite. Look, it happened to taz, too. "

    Anyway, its happened every time except in this active period except for 1997. Get over it.
    Plus, it gets old.... phale
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    No, problem. Had to check to be sure myself...I can usually keep the names straight..it's when we have 3-4 L numbers that I can't keep up!


    ya no kidding. And plus, René should have an accent, otherwise its pronounced Rean... and René is male, too.
    Quoting Vortex95:
    it appears a derechio is starting to develop in the gulf its in its infancy and hopefully sheer will kill it as with 95% of potential derechos.


    Wait, a derecho??
    Went to school with a guy named Rene but but pronounced Rainy. Who knows?
    Quoting Vortex95:
    98. Ike

    one of the better reasons to leave college lol... 9.5 million. Its gotten popular quick back in the mid 90s the prize money was 500-550 thousand. And even in 2003 or 04 it was 2.5 million. It had around 200 competitors in the mid 90s now its over 4,000.


    Actually, the opposite. Great time to go to college.
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    Went to school with a guy named Rene but but pronounced Rainy. Who knows?


    the NHC... i'll go check
    here it is

    Arthur r-THUR
    Bertha BUR-tha
    Cristobal krees-TOE-bahl
    Dolly doll-E
    Edouard eh-DWARD
    Fay FAY
    Gustav GOO-stav
    Hanna HAN-a
    Ike IKE
    Josephine JO-ze-feen
    Kyle KI-el
    Laura Lor-A
    Marco MAR-co
    Nana NA-na
    Omar O-mar
    Paloma pa-LOW-ma
    Rene re-NAY
    Sally SAL-e
    Teddy TED-e
    Vicky VIK-e
    Wilfred WIL-fred
    Quoting CybrTeddy:
    I saw signs for regular gas today at 2.19$


    1.99 in MI today... three months after the peak was 4.56... thats some pretty big change.
    Next year, three new names: Fred, Ida, and Joaquin, replacing Fabian, Isabel, and Juan

    gotta run see you all later
    WAKEUP SURF ALERT - The upcoming coldfront will break the GOMEX flat spell. 1ft Southy back on Thursday - stays till Saturday AM. South windswell probably not big enough to surf, but check your best South facing beaches. Saturday surf comes upby afternoon, behind the Front. Waist high ( ) from the NW Saturday evening/Sunday 2-4ft Waves, Secondary Front, tuesday - back up and waist high. 68 degrees Gulf water - may drop - it's neoprene time - get out the 3/2 and have fun!!
    Bonedog - get a cheap flight down for a fun weekend!!!!
    Hey surfmom,

    cooking right now, so slow to reply.

    Hope that works out for you, know you've been waiting a while...back in a few.
    Quoting hurristat:


    1.99 in MI today... three months after the peak was 4.56... thats some pretty big change.


    down where i live in south florida, the peak was $4.25 back in may. today: $2.20. i say it will be $1.50, maybe less, by the time obama is inagurated.
    Spouse has a client here tonight... gotta run -- "hostess w/the mostess" LOL -- I'm still in barn jeans w/perfume ode du horse sweat ROTFL.....better take care of businees. You all have a good night. I'm getting waves, I'm getting waves....and I don't have to work on most of those days.....although Sunday the winds in SWFL are looking to be 20mph plus -- a little too strong for me to be in the water... wait and see
    Hi Rob - caught your post -- on the run -- g'nite & Tomorrow.
    LOL - now that's one happy girl!
    Gotta love her!
    My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

    Named Storms: 16
    Hurricanes: 7
    Major Hurricanes: 4

    Pre June: 0
    June: 1
    July: 2
    August: 5
    September: 6
    October: 0
    November: 1
    December: 1

    181. N3EG
    Whatever that last "tropical cyclone" was in the western Pacific, it sucked enough moisture into the jet stream to give us 3.55 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, with about 3 inches since midnight. That's what hurricanes do to us in Western Washington...by the way, our highest wind gust was only 13mph.
    Ok since things are a little slow...Anyone have any interesting Hurricane or Typhhon stories. Possible survival stories?? I've got a dandy, just running short on time right now as i'm at work but I will tell it later.
    Anyway, my guess for post season.

    Arthur upgraded to TD status then TS status before landfall.

    Fay might be upgraded to Hurricane status, and might be retired

    Gustav upgraded to Category 5 status and retired

    Hanna retired

    Ike, might be upgraded to Category 5 status and will be retired

    Omar upgraded to Category 4 status

    Paloma might be retired.
    Quoting CybrTeddy:
    Anyway, my guess for post season.

    Arthur upgraded to TD status then TS status before landfall.

    Fay might be upgraded to Hurricane status, and might be retired

    Gustav upgraded to Category 5 status and retired

    Hanna retired

    Ike, might be upgraded to Category 5 status and will be retired

    Omar upgraded to Category 4 status

    Paloma might be retired.


    Would you say 94L (while kyle was forming) will be an official sub-tropical storm?
    Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
    My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

    Named Storms: 16
    Hurricanes: 7
    Major Hurricanes: 4

    Pre June: 0
    June: 1
    July: 2
    August: 5
    September: 6
    October: 0
    November: 1
    December: 1



    ok, how many do you think will hit south florida?
    Quoting caneswatch:


    ok, how many do you think will hit south florida?


    We'll, I'll say 3:

    2 tropical storms and 1 hurricane(category 2).
    Quoting caneswatch:


    ok, how many do you think will hit south florida?


    any cat 5's
    Thursday, May 14, 1998- 10:29 PM ET

    "There is no way we could have forseen the most intense El Nino on record would occur," Gray said.
    look at this

    that's gustav defenatly a cat 5
    Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
    My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

    Named Storms: 16
    Hurricanes: 7
    Major Hurricanes: 4

    Pre June: 0
    June: 1
    July: 2
    August: 5
    September: 6
    October: 0
    November: 1
    December: 1



    What's with October?
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    Thursday, May 14, 1998- 10:29 PM ET

    "There is no way we could have forseen the most intense El Nino on record would occur," Gray said.


    190. hurricaneman123

    HEHE...you know you're gonna freak some people out with that loop...that's almost exactly where ex-Paloma is!
    Quoting hurristat:


    Wait, a derecho??


    That comment doesn't make much sense; a derecho is not tropical in any way (other than the thunderstorms/convection), and shear actually is the reason they develop (as with any severe thunderstorm, which is what a derecho is; they literally cause the jetstream to dive to the ground; also see here).
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    190. hurricaneman123

    HEHE...you know you're gonna freak some people out with that loop...that's almost exactly where ex-Paloma is!


    Maybe so... so do u think gustav was a cat 5
    I'll go out on a whim and make a pre-season prediction for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Assuming we remain in neutral conditions, I'll go with this:

    14 named storms
    8 hurricanes
    3 major hurricanes

    I'd expect at least one of those majors would strike the U.S., as well as two additional non-major hurricanes, and also one tropical storm.

    Then again, making predictions in November for something that starts in June is more than a little silly. But hey, since everybody else is doing it, I may as well too... <_<
    Quoting hurricaneman123:


    Maybe so... so do u think gustav was a cat 5
    it's possible at one point that it was...but I'll leave that to the experts to decide...I don't have the data available and at the time I was concentrating more on track than exact intensity. I remember thinking that it wasn't nearly as bad for LA as I thought it might have been a day or 2 earlier.
    Quoting MichaelSTL:


    That comment doesn't make much sense; a derecho is not tropical in any way (other than the thunderstorms/convection), and shear actually is the reason they develop (as with any severe thunderstorm, which is what a derecho is; they literally cause the jetstream to dive to the ground; also see here).


    I know what a derecho is, just wondering what its application right now is... but they are rare.
    Quoting hurricaneman123:


    Maybe so... so do u think gustav was a cat 5


    I think it was. From what I gather, that 212 mph wind gust measured in Cuba near the landfall location was verified to be accurate. Unless that was a gust that was over half as strong as the maximum sustained surface winds, then it's quite likely that wind gust indicated Gustav was a 160-170 mph Category 5.
    Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


    We'll, I'll say 3:

    2 tropical storms and 1 hurricane(category 2).


    i think next year we're gonna get the big one. ike spared us big time. i don't think the big one is going to spare us next year.
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    it's possible at one point that it was...but I'll leave that to the experts to decide...I don't have the data available and at the time I was concentrating more on track than exact intensity. I remember thinking that it wasn't nearly as bad for LA as I thought it might have been a day or 2 earlier.


    Probably the best data would be what was recorded in Cuba, also remember that they didn't fly recon for a couple hours prior to landfall when it was still intensifying (150 mph at that point).
    My prediction:

    17 total storms
    10 tropical storms
    7 hurricanes
    3 major hurricanes

    I don't see it as a crazily strong (as in strength of storms) year, but I see a lot of storms that don't make it to hurricane status.
    Quoting caneswatch:


    i think next year we're gonna get the big one. ike spared us big time. i don't think the big one is going to spare us next year.


    us means south florida, especially palm beach county.
    Quoting hurristat:


    I know what a derecho is, just wondering what its application right now is... but they are rare.


    I was actually replying more to this comment, which you quoted:

    Quoting Vortex95:
    it appears a derechio is starting to develop in the gulf its in its infancy and hopefully sheer will kill it as with 95% of potential derechos.
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    I think it was. From what I gather, that 212 mph wind gust measured in Cuba near the landfall location was verified to be accurate. Unless that was a gust that was over half as strong as the maximum sustained surface winds, then it's quite likely that wind gust indicated Gustav was a 160-170 mph Category 5.

    I completely agree but what do i know i am just a high school sophomore
    202. MichaelSTL

    You are in a better position to judge than me. My main interest is in trying to forecast the track and a general idea of intensity. It doesn't matter to me if it's a 4 or a 5, I'll follow the same course of action...not be there. That's the part I'm reasonably good at...sat analysis, radar interpretation, and such...I leave all the post season analysis and statistics to others.
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    it's possible at one point that it was...but I'll leave that to the experts to decide...I don't have the data available and at the time I was concentrating more on track than exact intensity. I remember thinking that it wasn't nearly as bad for LA as I thought it might have been a day or 2 earlier.


    That may hold true for NOLA and surrounding areas that were devastated by Katrina, but it doesn't hold true for central Louisiana, and areas like Morgan City, Houma, etc. Gustav was the worst hurricane for them since Andrew in 1992. That's 16 years without a significant hurricane in those areas. Not to mention that even inland, the damage was extensive. Baton Rouge had the worst damage in history from any hurricane, surpassing even Betsy in 1965, which by itself was bad enough.

    I live about 20 miles from Baton Rouge, and Gustav produced even worse wind damage than Andrew did, and that too was an extreme wind event for all of central, and some of southeastern Louisiana.

    All I'm saying is (and I'm sure you know this), there are others areas in the state that got extremely hard hit, even though NOLA was spared the flooding that was feared.
    Quoting MichaelSTL:


    I was actually replying more to this comment, which you quoted:



    sorry... i get bored and look at hurricane/weather stuff on wikipedia, which the hackers don't mess with b/c all us weather nerds fix it again, and its not as fun
    Question for everyone: Does the average storm seem to be getting stronger? Not as strength, but does today's Cat. 2 do more damage than your grandfather's, disregarding extra building on the coast. In other words, do they have more IKE?
    208. KoritheMan

    I don't disagree at all...I live about 60 miles inland in central FL. I know 1st hand that being high and dry and away from the coast doesn't make you safe. I've seen heavy storm damage from tropical storms. I've seen canes get this far inland and barely weaken at all. I think it is a common misconception that people have that if they live inland they are safe or that if it's only a weak cane or TS they are safe. I meant worse for all of you, not just NOLA
    Quoting hurristat:
    Question for everyone: Does the average storm seem to be getting stronger? Not as strength, but does today's Cat. 2 do more damage than your grandfather's, disregarding extra building on the coast. In other words, do they have more IKE?


    I think that is entirely based upon perception. I would say no, but some would obviously say yes.
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    208. KoritheMan

    I don't disagree at all...I live about 60 miles inland in central FL. I know 1st hand that being high and dry and away from the coast doesn't make you safe. I've seen heavy storm damage from tropical storms. I've seen canes get this far inland and barely weaken at all. I think it is a common misconception that people have that if they live inland they are safe or that if it's only a weak cane or TS they are safe. I meant worse for all of you, not just NOLA


    Yeah, it's definitely a good thing that Gustav never gained any strength back after being disrupted by Cuba, otherwise the damage would've been far worse than what it already is, both along the coast and inland. Gustav has taught me two things:

    1. Never underestimate a high-end Category 2, or low-end Category 3; they pack quite the punch.

    2. Never underestimate what Cuba can do to a hurricane, even if it only passes over it for a little while. Actually, learning how disrupted Gustav was from Cuba (and Ike as well), is likely going to aid me significantly in the future, since I like to make forecasts on another forum I go to.
    Quoting hurristat:
    Question for everyone: Does the average storm seem to be getting stronger? Not as strength, but does today's Cat. 2 do more damage than your grandfather's, disregarding extra building on the coast. In other words, do they have more IKE?


    I think it is related to increasing population along coastlines, including building in areas where you shouldn't (ex. right along the coast in storm surge prone areas, especially areas that have been recently hit and are known to be highly vulnerable). Maybe also that they are not building to code (for comparison, in the Caymans, homes are built of concrete and steel, as somebody who lives there said).
    Quoting MichaelSTL:


    I think it is related to increasing population along coastlines, including building in areas where you shouldn't (ex. right along the coast in storm surge prone areas, especially areas that have been recently hit and are known to be highly vulnerable). Maybe also that they are not building to code (for comparison, in the Caymans, homes are built of concrete and steel, as somebody who lives there said).


    Ya, but Ike had more IKE than any other storm, and why would that be it instead of, oh, say, Camille, which is a Cat. 5?
    What do people think of the mid-atlantic wave?
    213. KoritheMan

    which brings up another thing we've see a lot of this year...persistance...lots of times folks wrote off storms only to see them make a comeback...we've certainly seen our share of wierdness.

    You are right, a 2 or 3 can wreck your whole day...for years! Especially when you get cumulative damage like we got from charlie/francis/jeanne in 2004. These things are always a lot of fun until the one comes along that drops the giant tree on your house, or washes your town away...
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    213. KoritheMan

    which brings up another thing we've see a lot of this year...persistance...lots of times folks wrote off storms only to see them make a comeback...we've certainly seen our share of wierdness.

    You are right, a 2 or 3 can wreck your whole day...for years! Especially when you get cumulative damage like we got from charlie/francis/jeanne in 2004. These things are always a lot of fun until the one comes along that drops the giant tree on your house, or washes your town away...


    Arthur formed over land, pretty much
    Bertha just didn't die
    Fay pretty much strengthened over FL
    Gustav was pretty persistent even after being torn apart by Hispaniola.
    Hanna didn't die or move for a week!!
    Ike lasted for like 3 weeks
    Paloma's still technically alive (at least its swirl is)
    Quoting hurristat:


    Ya, but Ike had more IKE than any other storm, and why would that be it instead of, oh, say, Camille?


    Ike was of course much larger, but even more normal-sized storms seem to cause a lot of damage, specifically in the U.S. (I put this down to much greater wealth and building in vulnerable areas, perhaps also not building to withstand hurricanes well); if you compare storms that hit the U.S. as opposed to Mexico or Cuba, they are much more destructive (compare Gustav in Cuba and the U.S.; damage in the U.S. was far higher even though it was 2/3 categories weaker, esp. considering it was intensifying at Cuba landfall and weakening at U.S. landfall; an intensifying Cat 2->3 tends cause more wind damage than a weakening Cat 3->2); there is also a distinct bias to have seasons with many U.S. hits to be far more costly than ones without, even when those seasons had many hits elsewhere (like last year).
    really need to go now. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.

    Have a good evening



    BTW I think every storm is different, but as far as is a cat2 now worse than your father's cat2 - no. I think we are much more aware of them and the havoc they wreak now. I know I am a lot better informed and have better access to info than I was 5 years ago. Thanks in no small part to sites like this and those of you who contribute to them.
    Quoting hurristat:
    What do people think of the mid-atlantic wave?


    Technically, I don't think it's a wave, it's just an area of convection associated with the ITCZ. Nothing will come of it, most likely, given the extremely oppressive shear around.
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    Technically, I don't think it's a wave, it's just an area of convection associated with the ITCZ. Nothing will come of it, most likely, given the extremely oppressive shear around.


    I was thinking you meant the area of cloudiness and showers east of the Windward Islands -- that is related to the ITCZ. But I see now that you meant that small area of cloudiness and showers NE of the northern Leeward Islands. Again, just like with the area further south, I doubt anything comes of this.
    by the way not like its a big deal at all but the remnant low of Paloma is traveling the exact same path Gustav did over the isle of youth and western cuba check out the VI its identical.....
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    I was thinking you meant the area of cloudiness and showers east of the Windward Islands -- that is related to the ITCZ. But I see now that you meant that small area of cloudiness and showers NE of the northern Leeward Islands. Again, just like with the area further south, I doubt anything comes of this.


    maybe if it made it into the carib... it would be rene(accent on the last e, too lazy to put it there), but that sounds overly sadistic
    Quoting hurristat:


    maybe if it made it into the carib... it would be rene(accent on the last e, too lazy to put it there), but that sounds overly sadistic


    Not to mention unrealistic. The GFS 200 mb wind forecast shows extremely hostile vertical shear throughout most of the Carribean. Even if the wave made it into the Carribean, it would have almost no chance of developing.
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    Not to mention unrealistic. The GFS 200 mb wind forecast shows extremely hostile vertical shear throughout most of the Carribean. Even if the wave made it into the Carribean, it would have almost no chance of developing.


    true, but im caught between wanting something to track and trying to not sound sadistic
    Quoting hurristat:


    true, but im caught between wanting something to track and trying to not sound sadistic


    I too want one more storm to track this year, which is why I'm hoping that a piece of that extratropical storm Jeff mentioned breaks off from the jet stream and becomes Rene. It would go harmlessly out to sea.

    I'm actually predicting one more storm this season, and I have no doubt that if we get one, it'll form in the open Atlantic from an extratropical low pressure area -- that's the only place conditions are even marginally favorable, is out in the open Atlantic.

    Plus, it's always fun to see the NHC pull their hair out when trying to predict a storm like Epsilon, Zeta, or Gordon. :)
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    I too want one more storm to track this year, which is why I'm hoping that a piece of that extratropical storm Jeff mentioned breaks off from the jet stream and becomes Rene. It would go harmlessly out to sea.

    I'm actually predicting one more storm this season, and I have no doubt that if we get one, it'll form in the open Atlantic from an extratropical low pressure area -- that's the only place conditions are even marginally favorable, is out in the open Atlantic.

    Plus, it's always fun to see the NHC pull their hair out when trying to predict a storm like Epsilon, Zeta, or Gordon. :)


    THAT WOULD BE PERFECT!!!

    (Don't forget about Delta)
    As far as retirement percentages go:

    Arthur 0%
    Bertha 0%
    Cristobal 0%
    Dolly 5%
    Edouard 0%
    Fay 35%
    Gustav 100%
    Hanna 75%
    Ike 100%
    Josephine 0%
    Kyle 0%
    Laura 0%
    Marco 0%
    Nana 0%
    Omar 30%
    Paloma 50%

    And, as far as what I think will be upgraded post season:

    Bertha- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
    Dolly- Possibly a category 3 at Texas landfall
    Fay- Possibly a hurricane over Florida
    Gustav- Likely a category 5 before Cuba landfall
    Omar- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
    Paloma- Possibly a minimal category 5 or 150 mph category 4 at peak intensity

    Also there were a few invests that I think reached TD/TS status and weren't officialy declared until a later time period or were left unnoticed. Examples; 94L in September I think was a subtropical/tropical depression/storm. And, possibly Fay, Kyle, and Arthur became a tropical storm/depression before it was actually officialy declared.

    Any comments? By the way, this is all just my opinion...nothing else...
    Quoting weatherblog:
    As far as retirement percentages go:

    Arthur 0%
    Bertha 0%
    Cristobal 0%
    Dolly 5%
    Edouard 0%
    Fay 35%
    Gustav 100%
    Hanna 75%
    Ike 100%
    Josephine 0%
    Kyle 0%
    Laura 0%
    Marco 0%
    Nana 0%
    Omar 30%
    Paloma 50%

    And, as far as what I think will be upgraded post season:

    Bertha- Likely a cat 4 at peak intensity
    Dolly- Possibly a cat 3 at Texas landfall
    Fay- Possibly a hurricane over Florida
    Gustav- Likely a cat 5 before Cuba landfall
    Omar- Likely a cat 4 at peak intensity
    Paloma- Possibly a minimal cat 5 or 150 mph cat 4 at peak intensity

    Also there were a few invests that I think reached TD/TS status and weren't officialy declared until a later time period or were left unnoticed. Examples; 94L in September I think was a subtropical/tropical depression/storm. Fay and Arthur became a tropical storm/depression before it was officialy declared.

    Any comments? By the way, this is all just my opinion...nothing else...


    YES. About the upgrading. I think that Paloma has a greater chance of being a 5 than Bertha does of being a 4. Anyway, it was hardly a 3, so making a 4 doesn't make sense. Same thing for Dolly.
    i took a look at Hurricane ike at peak intensity and it is definatley not a cat 5 totally a cat 4 but before land fall it might be a cat 3 I give it a 50% chance that it was a cat 3
    Quoting hurristat:


    YES. About the upgrading. I think that Paloma has a greater chance of being a 5 than Bertha does of being a 4. Anyway, it was hardly a 3, so making a 4 doesn't make sense. Same thing for Dolly.


    You may be right, but the NHC did mention with Bertha and Omar that they were briefly category fours. So, it is up to question I assume if they will actually be upgraded post-season or not. While Dolly does not have as much evidence of it being a category three, I think based on the impressive satelitte presentation, massive amount of damage it left, and some of the estimates made before it made landfall in Southern Texas may be enough to prove the point. The NHC is gonna have a tough time figuring out which storms to upgrade, because it seems almost every storm needs to be upgraded somehow or another.
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.
    Quoting weatherblog:


    You may be right, but the NHC did mention with Bertha and Omar that they were briefly category fours. So, it is up to question I assume if they will actually be upgraded post-season or not. While Dolly does not have as much evidence of it being a category three, I think based on the impressive satelitte presentation, massive amount of damage it left, and some of the estimates made before it made landfall in Southern Texas may be enough to prove the point. The NHC is gonna have a tough time figuring out which storms to upgrade, because it seems almost every storm needs to be upgraded somehow or another.


    oops... didnt know the thing about the NHC mentioning that Bertha was a 4.
    Quoting KoritheMan:
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.


    The thing is, the whole point of retiring hurricanes is because the name strikes fear into people. If Dolly did $2 trillion in damage and no one felt anything about it, they wouldn't retire it. What they should do is walk around the landfalling sites asking people on whether they should retire the name of the storm or not. If its higher than 50%, they should.
    oh joy, this discussion again
    LOL : ) we should just agree to disagree, cause we never get anywhere
    Quoting hurristat:


    The thing is, the whole point of retiring hurricanes is because the name strikes fear into people. If Dolly did $2 trillion in damage and no one felt anything about it, they wouldn't retire it. What they should do is walk around the landfalling sites asking people on whether they should retire the name of the storm or not. If its higher than 50%, they should.


    Actually, this is a really good idea. I think they should start doing that when deciding whether or not to retire names.
    Quoting hurristat:
    oh joy, this discussion again
    LOL : ) we should just agree to disagree, cause we never get anywhere


    XD

    I was thinking the same thing. I believe it was you and I (correct me if I'm wrong) that had a discussion about this very thing just a few weeks ago.

    But honestly, I do like your idea of a retirement system.
    Quoting KoritheMan:
    229.weatherblog

    A few comments on your post:

    The NHC has already released their TCR on Bertha, and according to them, it peaked at 110 kt, a high-end Category 3 storm, just shy of Category 4 (which would start at 115 kt). So Bertha wasn't a Category 4.

    I don't think any storm should be retired from this year, other than Gustav, Ike, and possibly Hanna. Omar didn't do enough damage to merit retirement, Fay's rains weren't unheard of, Dolly is a typical summertime hurricane, and Paloma dissipated too quickly to cause a significant amount of damage -- at least enough to merit its retirement.

    And although 94L was likely a subtropical storm, it was only so for a few hours IMO, and should not be included in post-season analysis.


    I agree. I was just stating that the NHC/Dr. Masters had mentioned the possibility of Bertha/Omar briefly reaching Cat 4 status, so I'm not sure whether the NHC will make the call or not. Also, I 99% agree with what I put in bold except the fact that Fay's rain wasn't unheard of. I think it is very rare for a tropical cyclone to make landfall in the same state four times and usually flooding has been the main reason for retirement in a lot of past retired hurricanes/TS's-- Alisson, Stan, Noel, so I think there is a slim possibilty of retirement with Fay.
    17 days 0 hrs 55 mins remain
    Quoting KoritheMan:


    XD

    I was thinking the same thing. I believe it was you and I (correct me if I'm wrong) that had a discussion about this very thing just a few weeks ago.

    But honestly, I do like your idea of a retirement system.


    yup that was me. i had a rant day and i was writing like 500 word essays explaining my point, and then Orca summed it up in 10. This was before Paloma
    gotta run...sorry
    RSMC: India Meteorological Department
    5:30 AM IST November 13
    ========================================

  • Yesterday’s low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining southwest bay persists over the same region as a well marked low pressure area. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models indicate its initial west-northwestwards movement, leading to increase in rainfall activity over south peninsula.
  • Good evening everyone...
    Note on Visible/Rainbow Infrared Loops that
    the Circulation from Paloma still is intact
    south of west cuba and moving towards the gulf of mexico.

    Florida Forecast:
    Strong Cold Front on the way- significant horizontal temperature
    gradient- From 88 to 63-68 for highs, 25 degree temperature difference in
    highs. This over a very short area- as indicated by numerous close isobars on
    the GFS model. Deep horizontal temperature gradient across the front,
    along with deep pressure gradient across the front (as indicated by
    numerous close isobars per GFS) and the high pressure system to
    the west of it, will combine with and be enhanced by the remnant
    vorticity, moisture, and energy of Paloma to produce a potent winter
    storm over the Eastern United States.

    With those factors in mind, it is exceedingly likely that winds of 30 mph
    will develop ahead of the front; a strong squall line with enhanced vorticity
    from paloma's remnant voriticity being sucked in should precede the front
    with severe thunderstorms capable of producing winds in excess of 60 mph.
    Finally, after the frontal passage, the tremendous temperature/pressure gradient
    as illustrated by the GFS should help fuel strong northerly winds of 35 mph behind
    the front, leading to cold air advection across the SE US and Florida. Wind chill
    temperatures in the 30s may dip into interior central Florida by Monday or Tuesday.
    These winds should quickly relax to about 10-20 mph once the cold high builds
    over the southeast, and tranquil conditions will prevail.
    A hybrid type system may form similar to olga of last year- the remnant circulation of olga combined with frontal energy to produce 78 mph hurricane force winds in the Tampa Bay Area at clearwater beach- OFFICIALLY in the NHC report.

    I expect the remnant vorticity of paloma to do a similar rapid intensification once it hybridizes with the cold front, across with there is a massive temperature and pressure gradient per the GFS, an excellent gulf moisture fetch to help fuel rapid intensification of paloma's vorticity and cold front hybrid storm low pressure. Expect some bad weather in the southeast
    Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
    My prediction (out of no where) for next year:

    Named Storms: 16
    Hurricanes: 7
    Major Hurricanes: 4

    Pre June: 0
    June: 1
    July: 2
    August: 5
    September: 6
    October: 0
    November: 1
    December: 1


    That's weird I predicted 16/7/4 this year.
    Hello!
    Do you guys remember hurricane Klaus?

    That storm only caused 1 million dollars in damage and only 11 deaths but was retired.

    I don't know why Dolly wouldn't be retired and possibly Fay.
    Quoting weatherblog:
    As far as retirement percentages go:

    Arthur 0%
    Bertha 0%
    Cristobal 0%
    Dolly 5%
    Edouard 0%
    Fay 35%
    Gustav 100%
    Hanna 75%
    Ike 100%
    Josephine 0%
    Kyle 0%
    Laura 0%
    Marco 0%
    Nana 0%
    Omar 30%
    Paloma 50%

    And, as far as what I think will be upgraded post season:

    Bertha- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
    Dolly- Possibly a category 3 at Texas landfall
    Fay- Possibly a hurricane over Florida
    Gustav- Likely a category 5 before Cuba landfall
    Omar- Likely a category 4 at peak intensity
    Paloma- Possibly a minimal category 5 or 150 mph category 4 at peak intensity

    Also there were a few invests that I think reached TD/TS status and weren't officialy declared until a later time period or were left unnoticed. Examples; 94L in September I think was a subtropical/tropical depression/storm. And, possibly Fay, Kyle, and Arthur became a tropical storm/depression before it was actually officialy declared.

    Any comments? By the way, this is all just my opinion...nothing else...

    My percentages
    Arthur .1%
    Bertha 0%
    Cristobal 0%
    Dolly 5%
    Eduard .1%
    Fay 49%
    Gustav 100%*
    Hanna 80%*
    Ike 100% all the way*
    Josephine 0%
    Kyle 2%
    Laura 0%
    Marco .1%
    Nana 0%
    Omar 25%
    Paloma 65%*
    *=I think this storm is retiring
    and I think they will only updates Bertha and Gustav
    Rain for next three days here in VA Cold miserable rain bbl
    Good Morning, Waking up w/the a good cup of coffee, windows open --watching the dawn break through. Always find this time of day the best....love the quiet, with just a few birds beginning the morning chirps. Air feels a bit humid today. Hard to believe there is a cold front getting ready to visit SWFL
    interesting conversation last night, good read through the last two pages
    Gomex Surfers of SWFLThe cold front will break the gomex flat spell. 1ft southy back today - stays till Saturday AM. This South windswell probably not big enough to ride (good for skim) --but keep your eye on the best S. Facers, Saturday surf comes up by afternoon behind the front. Waist high (plus ) from the NW. Saturday afternoon/Sunday 2-4ft from the NW with 20mph (plus ) winds. Monday leftovers 1-2ft. Secondary Front on tuesday - waves back up to waist high - Gulf temp presently 68 degrees, may go lower. Pull out the neoprene and get wet - no excuses!!!!
    255. IKE
    My forecast for Sunday and Sunday night....inland, Florida panhandle.

    Sunday
    Mostly sunny and cool. Highs around 58.

    Sunday Night
    Mostly clear and cold. Lows 30 to 35 inland...35 to 40 at the coast.


    THIS AIRMASS
    ARRIVING IS BETWEEN 3 TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
    FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS LESS THAN A
    5% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. WITH THIS IN MIND IT IS NO WONDER THE
    FORECAST IS GOING TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE.
    ex.baseball players just fade away happy weather
    257. IKE
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    700 AM EST THU NOV 13 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$

    FORECASTER BROWN

    Morning, 54 F in Macon, Ga with showers and T-Storms, hope some of this will keep going up to N C, they really need it badly.
    looks like we are going to get a little swell action on the east side, but I bet there is going to be a good snook bit saturday night before the cold front.
    I don't know were your getting that Paloma didn't do alot of damage, it devastated the Cayman islands.
    Well, it looks like Hurricane Season 2008 is just about over; both in actual dates and in activity. I just wanted to wish everyone on here a great holiday season and a great start into 2009, as I know go into "SNOWBIRD" mode with this site until the first formations next year.

    I was mainly a lurker for the most part this year, but plan on being more active on here next year. Until then, best wishes to all!
    Hey Ft.Pierce - a little snook fishing & a bit of surf --Life is GOOD!
    Waves on the way
    of course I'm jumping up & down w/glee - waist high waves -- my favorite..enough to ride without fearing "I'm gonna die".

    Today, my favorite wind - Zephyr (south wind) is gently blowing - it's warm, humid, sunny with a scent of mexico in the air
    Out for a 10 miler run - going to check the beach and my best south facing spot. Lots of work at the barns -- so I'm just hoping I'll be able to get wet and catch some of this upcoming action.

    Ike thanks for the temp forecaast, got all my barn buddies alert and watching this front. Forewarned we can catch the "weather induced" colic that affects horses sensitive to rapid weather change.

    Being forewarned we probably saved LEO from life threatening colic the last front..... it's why I'm here year round & appreciate all you weather wizards!!!

    See you in a bit!
    Snook ?????
    Invest 95?
    Just finished looking at all of the models.. its isn't over yet, 2 show and 1 more supports another system in the Caribbean withing the next 7-10 days.
    Low level swirl Paloma is now in the GOM. how odd is that?

    AL, 95, 2008111312, , BEST, 0, 206N, 623W, 25,
    Quoting PensacolaDoug:
    Low level swirl Paloma is now in the GOM. how odd is that?


    About three days ago.. the CMC had it happening.. with a slow regeneration, heading to the Panhandle.. but has since dropped it.
    Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

    AL, 95, 2008111312, , BEST, 0, 206N, 623W, 25,


    271. IKE
    Unbelievable.

    Will the season ever really end?
    272. IKE
    Thousands more lose their homes
    Nearly 85,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released today. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate with one in every 74 homes receiving a foreclosure filing. CNNMoney reports a total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August 2007.


    Jobless claims highest since Sept. 11 attacks
    Unemployment filings surge to 516,000, number of Americans continuing on benefits at 25-year high.



    What an economy*

    272. Was just looking at houses in the area I used to live in San Diego. The house we sold over three years ago is now worth about 300k less than what we sold it for. It's to the point where we could buy the same house for less than we paid for it when we purchased it...too bad we couldn't unload OUR house now and move back there...

    Economy is AWFUL. (Thank you Captain Obvious, I say to myself)

    I have ALWAYS had a job and right now, have been applying everywhere for something parttime and I can't find ANYTHING. Very unusual for me. I need to be home with my kids after school (youngest teen is a fragile type 1)...however, can't seem to find work for the times i am just sitting around doing nothing. Unbelievable.
    Well, how about that - 95L snuck up on us while we were sleeping! Doesn't appear any impact to land, however.
    Quoting IKE:
    Thousands more lose their homes
    Nearly 85,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in October, according to a report released today. Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate with one in every 74 homes receiving a foreclosure filing. CNNMoney reports a total of 936,439 homes have been lost to foreclosure since the housing crisis hit in August 2007.


    Jobless claims highest since Sept. 11 attacks
    Unemployment filings surge to 516,000, number of Americans continuing on benefits at 25-year high.



    What an economy*



    Indeed check these sites out

    Link

    Link

    Link

    The second link is good for checking if we have a bad day (cause asia is always the 1st to open)
    Quoting conchygirl:
    Well, how about that - 95L snuck up on us while we were sleeping! Doesn't appear any impact to land, however.


    95L????

    Who, what, when, where, why, and how?

    No kiddin that for sure snuck up on me

    gonna have to check it out
    Won't that ("95L") get sheared???
    278. IKE
    Quoting melwerle:
    272. Was just looking at houses in the area I used to live in San Diego. The house we sold over three years ago is now worth about 300k less than what we sold it for. It's to the point where we could buy the same house for less than we paid for it when we purchased it...too bad we couldn't unload OUR house now and move back there...

    Economy is AWFUL. (Thank you Captain Obvious, I say to myself)

    I have ALWAYS had a job and right now, have been applying everywhere for something parttime and I can't find ANYTHING. Very unusual for me. I need to be home with my kids after school (youngest teen is a fragile type 1)...however, can't seem to find work for the times i am just sitting around doing nothing. Unbelievable.


    I've been in sales since 1984....have had my own business since 1987....dealing primarily with the senior age market. Self-employed. Have no one to tell me I'm laid-off...my own boss..kind of glad I'm where I'm at.

    I can't imagine being foreclosed on...where would my family go? It costs more to rent a place here then I'm paying for a house payment, which includes my property taxes and insurance on my house.

    In today's market, I'm somewhat blessed.
    Dang!
    I was headed in here to brag about how nice and quiet it is in the tropics and decided to check the spaghettis first...RATS!


    Photobucket


    man its absoultely poring at my house right now big storm
    I would not be surprised at all if the low level cloud swirl that was paloma now in the gulf of mexico developed into a week subtropical storm before impacting the florida panhandle....there is a ton of shear of it now indeed but there is also plenty of convergence and lift in the atmosphere which could rapidly produce thunderstorms over the center which in a small way is already happening this morning, all be it being blown off to the east.......jsut some food for thought it will be interesting today to watch it scream ne over the gulf
    We're pretty blessed too Ike...we moved here and paid cash for our house so we don't have that to worry about. Feel really sorry for the folks who are losing their homes.
    283. IKE
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


    Indeed check these sites out

    Link

    Link

    Link

    The second link is good for checking if we have a bad day (cause asia is always the 1st to open)


    Osama Bin Ladin is probably laughing in his cave.


    I see what's left of Paloma heading toward us here in the Florida panhandle....lol.....
    95L? what 95L? LOL

    285. IKE
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
    95L? what 95L? LOL



    It should be on their next update.
    286. IKE
    What's left of Paloma.....

    It's funny that its also missing here but like you said that will probably be updated



    (please disregard this comment as I experienced some difficulties) (posted at 3:39 GMT)
    LOL it just got updated

    now to check NHC
    289. IKE
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
    It's funny that its also missing here but like you said that will probably be updated



    It's on there...lol.
    that's strange

    if I copy and paste the WU tropical image 95L appears but if I go to the main page it still isnt there

    anyone know why? is it my browser? it can't be cause my browser has been working for this season
    291. 786
    Orca...at work not time to see models, could you pls tell me what models are predicting a Carib system and where? TIA
    I just got 95L.INVEST from fnmoc navy before wunderground.com/tropical
    Quoting IKE:
    What's left of Paloma.....



    Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

    think anything could come from her remains?

    (despertar del cementerio)????
    294. IKE
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


    Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

    think anything could come from her remains?

    (despertar del cementerio)????


    I doubt it...shear is increasing the further north she goes. She's popped out a thunderstorm now......

    I'm interested to see the reaction between Paloma's remnant energy and the trough it is about to slam into.

    Never knew we had a such thing:

    Quoting the NWS:

    Statement as of 9:35 am CST on November 13, 2008

    ... Today is winter weather awareness day in Texas...

    The governors division of emergency management... through the
    Texas department of public safety... has joined with the National
    Weather Service to focus public attention on winter weather
    preparedness across Texas as part of winter weather awareness day.

    Even in south Texas we are not exempt from winter. South Texas can
    have wild swings in temperature. Although snow and ice events are
    rare... when they do occur they can have a major impact. If
    traveling across the state... you can drive from Summer like
    weather into a snow or ice storm... so it is important to be prepared
    for winter weather.

    To be prepared... it is a good idea to have an emergency kit at home
    and in your vehicle. At home... the main concern is loss of power... loss
    of heat and shortage of supplies. It is a good idea to have
    available a flashlight and extra batteries, a battery powered
    radio... and extra non-perishable food and water. In advance of a
    winter storm... you should carry extra medicine... baby items and fist
    aid supplies in case Road conditions make it difficult to get new
    supplies. It is also good to identify an emergency heating source
    such as a fireplace... wood stove or space heater.

    If considering travel... stay alert to the latest weather forecasts
    and warnings in advance of winter storms. These can be found at
    the National Weather Service website http://weather.Gov, as well
    as through other media outlets. Also check on Road conditions
    before heading out. Texas Department of Transportation maintains a
    Road conditions web site which includes a map showing the latest
    Road conditions across the state...

    Http://Apps.Dot.State.TX.US/travel/road_conditions2.Htm

    If a winter storm threatens your Route... have a winter safety kit in
    your vehicle. This might include blankets... a flashlight with extra
    batteries... a first aid kit and a knife... food that is high in
    energy and is non-perishable. It should also contain extra
    clothing to keep dry, a sack of sand or kitty litter for extra
    traction if you get stuck in snow... a shovel... a windshield
    scraper and brush.

    Dress to fit the season. When it is cold... wear loose fitting... light
    weight warm clothing in layers. Trapped air insulates. Layers can
    be removed to avoid perspiration and subsequent chill. Outer
    garments should be tightly woven, water repellent and hooded. Wear
    a hat. Significant body heat loss can be from the head. Try to
    stay dry.

    For more information on winter weather preparedness... go to the
    National Weather Service site on winter weather preparedness and
    the the governors department of emergency management web site.


    Http://www.Weather.Gov/os/winter/index.Shtml

    Http://www.Txdps.State.TX.US/dem



    Me: just thought it might be somehow relevant to those who are in the way of the coming cold air mass (or any other stronger air masses) coming thru the southern states
    looks what near me in brownsville tx

    137. Bonedog

    Look at that Bonedog... very astute.

    It made the news:

    Link
    Hey Ike!

    Long time no see!
    What a beautiful day in our little piece of paradise! 75°.... not sure I am ready for the cold front coming to visit on Sunday.
    paloma(ex)should either die out(finally) or make her way towards sw fla as a thunderstorm along with the front, correct? thanks.
    Wow....

    Saturn's aurora ~~~ really beautiful.
    Quoting Seastep:
    137. Bonedog

    Look at that Bonedog... very astute.

    It made the news:

    Link
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


    Paloma sure had a good circulation b4 being sheared off

    think anything could come from her remains?

    (despertar del cementerio)????


    No surface circulation at all.

    95L models initialized at 21N/63W.

    There is a definite swirl at 17N/59W.

    NHC has a little circle in that exact spot on the 12Z surface analysis. What does that symbolize?

    Link

    Must be an upper level anti cyclone developing over 95L. Shear is 10 to 20 kts over the area of low pressure. High pressure holding strong on that second front. Hopefully the front doesn't get delayed too much.
    pcoladan:I would have to disagree looking at the penn state GOM loop,there is still a weak surface circulation there,weak but it is there...could form a hybrid low if it links up with a pre-frontal trough that may form in the GOM, it would enhance the pops for FL and maybe a isolated severe T-storm,but that should be it!!!
    hey dan....how's your "tour guide" doing?

    :)
    Quoting NRAamy:
    hey dan....how's your "tour guide" doing?

    :)


    Most recent trip To Disney World last summer. :( He's ready to go somewhere again. Just have to find the time, (and money). :)
    money...yeah...that seems to be a hot topic lately....

    ;)

    309. IKE
    DOW
    94.07
    -1.14%
    8,188.59



    Closing in on below 8,000....
    Quoting IKE:
    DOW
    94.07
    -1.14%
    8,188.59



    Closing in on below 8,000....


    today's low as of now

    8,167.72

    DJIA was up and down at first but now it's steady on the red
    Here's a link for yall to follow the DJIA

    Link
    Here's a link for y'all to follow the market as a whole

    Link
    313. IKE
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
    LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
    OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
    WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    $$

    FORECASTER STEWART
    314. IKE
    Any thoughts about the new interest?
    update!

    dow is plunging now to that mark (8000)
    medium huh?

    PS anyone got shear maps with them?
    Here's the SST

    319. IKE
    Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
    medium huh?

    PS anyone got shear maps with them?


    Hello im not sure where the bottom might be on the Dow.......7500?
    321. IKE
    DOW
    292.95
    -3.54%
    7,989.71
    yup we just broke the 8000 mark on the Dow
    DJIA*
    8,129.81
    -152.85
    -1.85%
    324. IKE
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Hello im not sure where the bottom might be on the Dow.......7500?


    I think it could easily go lower then that.
    G'day,
    I seem often to get caught out on the time-stamp on Quikscat images.
    Here is a link
    If you look way up in left top corner at about 19.5 x 60 there appears to be some circulation. Could someone confirm how recent this image is....
    CRS
    445.31 points lost in this week so far....
    I agree.....short selling is risky but, about the only way now......
    328. IKE
    12Z HWRF takes 95L toward the Bahamas...Link


    12Z GFDL...Link
    CRS - 7:15pm eastern last night.

    Take time at top and then go backwards in time until you hit the time at the bottom.
    afternoon,all,do we really have to talk about wall street,talking about a depressing subject
    Government will make a serious mistake if they bail out the Auto industry......it will ruin us as a free enterprise nation.....
    Quoting Seastep:

    Thanks
    Afternoon folks.

    See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.
    CRS - and I subtracted incorrectly... it's 17:15GMT, so actually 5:15pm.
    Quoting Bonedog:
    Afternoon folks.

    See we have an invest now and the talk is still the economy.


    Haha
    hey NE hows things up your way?

    chilly and rainy here
    333. Bonedog

    Hey Bone!

    Think this is one for you to keep an eye on. At this point I don't anticipate huge development, but at a glance, what energy there is could slide up the coast and give you some more of that cold and nasty you've been seeing the last few weeks.

    Then again, we're talking about "front bumpage" (my new weather word) which is always hard to forecast.
    invest has an environment good for slow development

    what do any of you think?

    I say TS at peak
    ONe last thing on the Economy then back to weather......but, i wish everyone understood what the Chinesse Gov. did the being of last year......they started buying up all the Gold they could buy....then they installed a new law on Exports that caused a 30% increase on cost of goods shipped out of their country....that 30% increase has hit the US Corporate Manufacturing Sector for a loop....big time....ok enough BAck to weather
    no floater on the invest yet.......
    Im depressed, no hurricane threats out there & my 401k is way down.
    Hey,Bone,trying to get them off the subject,we're having layoffs at my company and trying to divert my attention to something else,like the weather
    342. NEwxguy

    Maybe this will work....

    Possible threat to FLORIDA.
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    no floater on the invest yet.......


    Strange, wonder why?
    man its poring here again with winds gusts past 30 mph
    Geez. Even the F word didn't liven up the blog for weather talk.

    Any comments on that quite vigorous and persistent swirl at 17N/59.5W?
    343. Seastep

    LOL - Possible threat....that I might need a blanket Sunday night?
    Rob yea been watching that area already, some models showed non tropical development along the cold front early next week then moving it NE.

    NE that sucks. Have family that went through the layoffs and are now scrambeling to find new jobs. These were midlevel execs at Bear Sterns now working at Walmart and such. Also I am watching my retierment dry up faster then a swirl stuck in the SAL.
    look here and you'll find how bad the rain is here Link
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    343. Seastep

    LOL - Possible threat....that I might need a blanket Sunday night?


    maybe you should WU mail the people you know to give attention to 95L

    don't know if it'll work but worth a try
    347. RobDaHood

    LOL. Just trying to draw some lurkers out.

    Hey, HWRF brings a wicked TD almost to FL! ;)
    348. Bonedog

    Wish I could do more, but will be sending positive thoughts and best wishes your way.
    Quoting Seastep:
    347. RobDaHood

    LOL. Just trying to draw some lurkers out.

    Hey, HWRF brings a wicked TD almost to FL! ;)


    LOL wicked TD

    should be a great party then
    awwww how cute

    95L has little to no chance coming to Florida with this cold front coming....
    354. Bonedog
    awwww how cute

    ssshhhh! she's sleeping. Don't tease her or she might wake up and pitch a fit.
    Quoting Bonedog:
    awwww how cute



    LOL reminds me of Marco (in terms of cuteness)
    Rob thanks for the prayers.
    356. RobDaHood

    LOL Rob thats funny
    Looks like we have a little low pressure area forming up just off the coast of Texas and may move inland a bit. Will be interesting to have something to watch other than the cold fronts.
    Looks pretty well-defined...
    Leaving "office" for a bit. Got a crew I haven't heard from in a while and need to make sure they aren't asleep under a tree. Back later...
    nothing in the low or mid levels just an ULL nothing to fear. Figured would jumpstart the blog. Guess not
    Quoting Seastep:
    Geez. Even the F word didn't liven up the blog for weather talk.

    Any comments on that quite vigorous and persistent swirl at 17N/59.5W?


    You guys want to liven things up, then just start accusing man-kind of being indirectly responsible for everything potentially bad through anthropogenic global warming.

    Watch this: AGW causes gay marriage bans.
    Quoting Bonedog:
    nothing in the low or mid levels just an ULL nothing to fear. Figured would jumpstart the blog. Guess not


    the blog "died" when it was declared that TC season was over with the exception of an out to sea storm
    I stand corrected low level cyclonic turning was looking at things backwards sorry
    with 50 and 60knt shear over the swirl still nothing to worry about
    Good Afternoon people,

    Remnants of Paloma pushing along and thru the eastern gulf......Isnt it cute? New area above Puerta Rico....Interesting.... The models all have it as a fish storm......time will tell!
    369. IKE
    DOW
    37.75
    +0.46%
    8,320.41


    Great news....strong economy.

    Now...back to the tropics...
    Quoting weatherboyfsu:
    ...... New area above Puerta Rico....Interesting.... The models all have it as a fish storm......time will tell!





    Well... us "fish" out here will be keeping an eye on it.
    CRS
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    95L has little to no chance coming to Florida with this cold front coming....
    If it develops and thats a big if it would be up and out probably somewhere between the east coast and bermuda.
    Quoting IKE:
    DOW
    37.75
    +0.46%
    8,320.41


    Great news....strong economy.

    Now...back to the tropics...


    LOL it aint over till....









    it's 4:oo PM ET/3:00 central
    Quoting IKE:
    DOW
    37.75
    +0.46%
    8,320.41


    Great news....strong economy.

    Now...back to the tropics...


    You must be in politics "The economy is strong,don't worry,we'll just bail out every business that asks for it.
    WOOHOO

    DOW
    143.52
    1.73%
    8,426.18


    lets through a ticker tape!!!! Back in the Black!!!











    [sarcasm off]
    as of now the dow

    8,384.84

    102.18 ( 1.23%)

    wow hope later we dont say ow
    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number ONE
    DEPRESSION BOB06-2008
    17:30 PM IST November 13 2008
    ========================================

    SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL

    At 17:30 PM IST, The mornings low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas concentrated into a depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. The Depression lays centered near 11.5N 85.5E or 600 kms east-southeast of Chennai, India and about 700 kms southeast of Machilipatnam.

    Satellite imagery indicates organized convection and curve band pattern in associated with the system. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 11.0N to 14.5N and between 82.0E to 86.5E.

    Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is betwen -40 to 60ºC. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 5 to 15 knots. Shear tendency is 5 to -10 knots to northwest of the system. The system lies close to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 14.0N. The sea surface temperature over the region is about 28-29C.

    Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamil-Nadu/South Andhra Pradesh coasts.
    Philippines Atmospherical Geophyical Astronomical Services and Administration

    The active low pressure area east of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "TONYO".

    Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
    ==============================
    At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tonyo located at 7.5ºN, 129.7ºE or 470 km east of Davao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

    Signal Warnings
    ==================

    Signal Warning Number One (30-60 kph winds)

    Mindanao Region
    ----------------
    1.Surigao del Norte
    2.Dinagat
    3.Siargao Islands
    4.Surigao del Sur
    5.Agusan del Norte
    6.Agusan del Sur
    7.Davao del Norte
    8.Davao Oriental
    Cold air coming south
    I could use a bail out.....:)
    more than a 200 point gain now LOL
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Cold air coming south


    Lot of cold air diving down out of Canada next week,all the way to the gulf
    Complete Blog Refresh
    Mirror Site (New Format)
    we have 1 hour and 15 minutes left alot can happen till then....
    381. NEwxguy



    actually all the way to Hati with a reenforcing shot behind it
    looks like all of Florida will see the chill going to be in the 30s in Jax 40s in Tampa 50s in Miami
    Quoting Bonedog:
    looks like all of Florida will see the chill going to be in the 40s in Tampa


    yep
    Astronomers have taken what they say are the first-ever direct images of planets outside of our solar system, including a visible-light snapshot of a single-planet system and an infrared picture of a multiple-planet system

    Link


    The three exoplanets (red dots in the right panel) are shown orbiting HR 8799, whose residual light is shown as the multi-colored specks in the center of the right panel. An infrared image of one of the planets, which lies at 38 AU from the star, is shown in the right panel. Credit: National Research Council Canada.
    My son drives a 97 mitsubishi elcipse and in the cooler weather i noticed the car was drogey starting....needed a new battery.....things like that show up in the cooler weather even in Florida.
    Yeh,Tampa,any problems with cars up here,will make themselves known once the cold weather sets in.
    387. Bonedog

    some very nice imagery in that article.

    388. TampaSpin
    hehe...played the battery game Sunday.

    373. NEwxguy
    No, only big guys and financial institutions get bailouts. Us little guys just have to muddle through the best we can and pick up the tab.

    391. IKE
    Quoting NEwxguy:


    You must be in politics "The economy is strong,don't worry,we'll just bail out every business that asks for it.


    I was joking, but I'm glad to see the DOW up.

    save yourself the greif can an Optima Red Top and be done with your battery woes. Dont forget to get more CCAs too :)
    393. 786
    well acoording to the 500MB ridge that is being forecasted is oriented WSW - ENE therefore 95L could move WSW for a bit
    Can't wait for the cold air to come - my favorite time of the year in FL!
    Going to be a miserable night at the Patriots-Jets game tonight,current conditions 46 deg and light rain.
    I agree NEwxGuy, a miserable night at Foxborough, MA. Does anyone think that former Paloma could energize the low pressure center in the western Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps make the storm center stronger?
    394. conchygirl

    Cool, please, not cold. Cool crisp and dry, like last year works for me. Really enjoyed not having to run the AC or Heat except a couple times each over about 4 months. Could use the break on energy cost again.
    think the NWS is gonna continue tweaking the temperatures until wham! The coldest air of the season! You guy think so?
    Rob from what I have seen

    30s upper florida(Jax)
    40s Central(Tampa)
    50s Southern(Miami)
    Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
    I agree NEwxGuy, a miserable night at Foxborough, MA. Does anyone think that former Paloma could energize the low pressure center in the western Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps make the storm center stronger?

    nope the trough will pick up whats left of paloma in the gulf
    Looks like a double cold spell for you guys down south

    40s Central(Tampa)
    50s Southern(Miami)

    I'll be right in the middle there somewhere, which is fine with me...get too far into the thirties, though and I'm not a happy camper.

    current forecast means no AC in day and no Heat at night. Mostly sunny and light winds means good outdoors day.
    403. bwi
    Orange alert?

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    100 PM EST THU NOV 13 2008

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    1. A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
    LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
    WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
    OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
    WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

    wow even have below in the 8-14 time frame
    Im surprised this is only an Invest...


    Quoting Bonedog:
    Rob from what I have seen

    30s upper florida(Jax)
    40s Central(Tampa)
    50s Southern(Miami)


    Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)
    Wonder if pottery is watching this invest...starting to drag a little convection over TnT.
    here in brownsville the lows will dip to the mid 40's late sat early sun and highs upper 60's to low 70's
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)


    They can have it...Snow is what plane tickets are for...
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Snow would be nice.. Ike & BeachFoxx want snow :)


    Can't snow. Where is the moisture going to come from lol.
    I'll take the snow =) Just bring it on =)

    I'LL take the snow over this cold rain any day
    Quoting fireflymom:
    Looks like we have a little low pressure area forming up just off the coast of Texas and may move inland a bit. Will be interesting to have something to watch other than the cold fronts.


    1009mb Low added to 18Z map.
    Wow. We went from "this season is over" to a new invest. I'm thinking it might be on red alert tonight or tommorow and a td tommorow or this weekend.

    Rene could be on its way.
    I'm not too crazy on these cold temperature projections, it was 63ish here in Orlando on Election day it is only going to be in the upper 60s and low 70s as highs slightly below normal but not extreme cold. Time will tell.


    Ike enjoy the last tropical models while you can you won't see them for 6 months :)
    Just got the woodstove in and the wood stacked. Better check out the snow shoes. Wonder if this will be like '78?

    TOP
    Yeah, Bone, cold and wet is the worst. I hate "almost snow". Don't have to deal with that here much.
    Starting a new contest on my blog!

    The quietest year contest.

    The season is due November 30th.
    I can see the rush to dig out the heavy clothes in Florida.
    416. RobDaHood

    Yea I hear ya. Going to be that for the next 3 1/2 days up here
    418. NEwxguy

    Lots of folks here still suffering from Post Hurricane Stress Disorder. End of Nov and 1st strong coldfront cause a big sigh of relief and reason to celebrate. Excuse us if we get a little over-exuberant.

    You'll get your chance to laugh later on when it's 35 and we're whining "when is summer gonna come?" - LOL
    Come back and check every 10 days! lol

    2008 Atlantic hurricane season:

    November 01-10: Paloma!!

    Rene will be next or not???

    November 11-20: ???
    November 21-30: ???
    December 01-10: ???
    December 11-20: ???
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    418. NEwxguy

    Lots of folks here still suffering from Post Hurricane Stress Disorder. End of Nov and 1st strong coldfront cause a big sigh of relief and reason to celebrate. Excuse us if we get a little over-exuberant.

    You'll get your chance to laugh later on when it's 35 and we're whining "when is summer gonna come?" - LOL


    The only trouble is if your 35,we'll be -10
    Quoting RobDaHood:
    394. conchygirl

    Cool, please, not cold. Cool crisp and dry, like last year works for me. Really enjoyed not having to run the AC or Heat except a couple times each over about 4 months. Could use the break on energy cost again.
    Agree, but it has to get really cold before I turn the heat on and hoping not to have to this year either!
    might be a stupid question..is that polama's week swirl in the gulf...
    Quoting bayoubug:
    might be a stupid question..is that polama's week swirl in the gulf...


    centered about 200 mi (rough guess) SW of Tampa Bay? Yes.

    Ex-Paloma has been removed from 1800Z surface map and low near Pensacola added.
    Quoting conchygirl:
    Agree, but it has to get really cold before I turn the heat on and hoping not to have to this year either!


    I would much rather have a low in the upper 20s a couple of nights to kill off the skeeters. Some winters (in SE LA) we never get cold enough for that. Having to turn on the heat at night would be worth it.
    orange alert eh? Maybe on last go for the season.
    427. CybrTeddy

    Hey Cybr,
    are we still on for the launch at 7:55pm tomorrow? Haven't thought to check today.
    Afternoon all,
    Oh Oh , that invest 95l looks way too close for confort for us...in the TCI
    Quoting Drakoen:


    Can't snow. Where is the moisture going to come from lol.


    Indeed, Last year many thought that it would snow when temperatures dropped below freezing here in the treasure coast. However, the quantity if moisture in the air was inadequate. But the advection of cold air over the warm oceans caused stratocumulus clouds to form. We only received mere drizzles of cold rain. Snow flurries probably did form during the coldest times. Nonetheless, the atmosphere still lacked moisture content, instability, and sufficiently cold temperatures, as DRAK suggested.


    This event took place during early January of 2008....when a vigorous front blasted through the SE U.S.

    I am sure you all remember it.
    from my earlier post about the exoplanet images. Just got a new one

    Quoting 21N71W:
    Afternoon all,
    Oh Oh , that invest 95l looks way too close for confort for us...in the TCI


    Not expecting a lot to come of it at this point, but as you say, close. Keep an eye on it 'cause it could end up being a rain-maker for you. Little early to tell what will ultimately come of it.

    GFDL and HWRF bring it near you with TS winds
    New Blog, guys.....