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Tropical Atlantic Quiet; Pacific Getting Active

By: Jeff Masters 3:21 PM GMT on June 30, 2015

The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic Ocean, where no tropical storm activity is likely for at least the next week. A moderate-strength El Niño event is underway in the Eastern Pacific, and the atmospheric circulation associated with the strong warming of the waters off the coast of Peru is creating strong upper-level winds over the Caribbean. These powerful winds were creating a very high 60 - 70 knots of wind shear over the Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, making tropical storm formation virtually impossible in these regions. In addition, the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea, has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. The high wind shear and low instability is forecast to persist in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for at least the next week. Wind shear is lower in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the U.S. East Coast, so if we get any tropical storms forming during the first week of July, those would be the most likely locations. Tropical storms that form just off the U.S. coast typically get going along a cold front that moves off the coast and then stalls over the water. The models are currently showing no fronts active enough to promote such development through the first week of July.


Figure 1. Vertical instability over the Caribbean Sea in 2015. The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere has been dominated by high pressure and dry, sinking air since April, which has made it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. Instability has also been unusually low in the tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa, but has been near average over the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Rare twin tropical cyclones form in the Pacific
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is currently located in the Western Pacific, and is forecast to grow to impressive strength by this weekend. In response to the MJO and the unusually warm waters from the current El Niño event, heavy thunderstorm activity is firing up along a large swath of the tropical Western Pacific Ocean, along what is called the "Monsoon Trough". On Tuesday morning, this activity spawned twin tropical cyclones just west of the Date Line, one storm on either side of the Equator. The Northern Hemisphere storm is Tropical Depression Chan-hom, which is likely to intensify into a typhoon this weekend and track northwest through the Northern Mariana Islands, north of Guam. Chan-hom is the ninth named storm in this very busy Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to statistics from the Japan Meteorological Agency at Digital Typhoon, only two seasons since 1950 have had more named storms by the end of June--1971 (with 11) and 1965 (with 10.) The Southern Hemisphere twin storm is Tropical Cyclone Twenty-five, which is expected to slowly intensify and move southwards through the Solomon Islands. It is very rare to get a tropical cyclone in this portion of the South Pacific in late June and early July--winter in the Southern Hemisphere. According to statistics from NOAA's historical hurricane website, there have been only three July named storms in the waters of the South Pacific east of Australia since satellite data began in 1970. None of the these storms occurred in the waters north of the Solomon Islands, where Tropical Cyclone Twenty-five formed.


Figure 2. Surface wind flow over the equatorial Pacific as seen at 10 am EDT June 30, 2015. A series of four counter-clockwise rotating tropical disturbances (one of them being Tropical Depression Chan-hom) was in the Northern Hemisphere, and one tropical depression (Twenty-five) was in the Southern Hemisphere. Image credit: http://earth.nullschool.net/.

Twin tropical cyclones will aid El Niño
The counterclockwise flow around Tropical Depression Chan-hom in combination with the clockwise flow around Tropical Cyclone Twenty-five is generating a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) near the equator, just west of the Date Line. The winds of this WWB are predicted to march eastwards towards South America during the coming weeks, pushing more warm water eastwards that will reinforce the on-going moderate-strength El Niño event. This El Niño event is already at the borderline of being categorized as "strong", and this new WWB could well push it past that threshold. This should make for an unusually active Eastern Pacific hurricane season, by bringing warmer waters and lower wind shear (next chance for a named storm there: in about ten days' time, when the MJO pushes eastwards into the Eastern Pacific.) Conversely, El Niño should bring a much less active than usual Atlantic hurricane season, thanks to the high levels of wind shear that typically occur there during an El Niño.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the tropical update
Wow! A hurricane blog.
Thanks for the blog update Doctor.

I do believe that the Atlantic Ocean will have to vent its warm SST sooner or later.
We are not out of the woods by any means- perhaps just for the coming week.
Thank you Dr Masters
Should be an interesting winter across the SE and Florida once all of this heat in the Pacific Ocean is released.
** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS CHAN-HOM 1509 (1509) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC
00HR 10.0N 159.5E 995HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
400KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 10KM/H
P+12HR 10.3N 158.9E 992HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 11.0N 157.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 11.4N 154.3E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 11.6N 151.6E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 11.5N 150.1E 975HPA 33M/S
P+72HR 12.1N 149.2E 965HPA 38M/S
P+96HR 14.1N 146.3E 955HPA 42M/S
P+120HR 16.2N 144.3E 940HPA 50M/S=

--
100 knots in the 5 day forecast from China Meteorological Administration.
Better data, improved technology stretch North Slope's shrinking tundra travel season

A decade ago, oil operators on the North Slope found themselves in a climate predicament. The steady warming seen since the late 1960s had cut the tundra travel season -- the period when operators are able to build ice roads or send vehicles over the hard-frozen ground -- by half, from about 200 days to only about 100.

Link
Awaiting a SW Caribbean update about why shear isn't that bad and will be diminishing over the next couple of days.
Quoting 3. rmbjoe1954:

Thanks for the blog update Doctor.

I do believe that the Atlantic Ocean will have to vent its warm SST sooner or later.
We are not out of the woods by any means- perhaps just for the coming week.
Maybe not even for the coming week. It all depends on how strong the fronts, that will coming every couple of days, can stay as they get off the coast, and if they can be strong enough to promote cyclogenesis in the favored areas off the SE coast. As Dr. Masters wrote, none of the fronts look that strong so far, but the instability off the SE coast is at least sufficient to keep things going if one can start. Anyway, there sure isn't anything else to watch, so we might as well stare blankly out into the Atlantic. :-)
Quoting 7. tampabaymatt:

Should be an interesting winter across the SE and Florida once all of this heat in the Pacific Ocean is released.


Flooding rains & severe weather. El-Nino's especially the stronger they produce some large violent tornadoes that usually occur at night. Come October everyone in FL should pay close attention to future forecast as we could be in for one heck of a Fall/Winter season across FL.
.
Quoting 3. rmbjoe1954:

Thanks for the blog update Doctor.

I do believe that the Atlantic Ocean will have to vent its warm SST sooner or later.
We are not out of the woods by any means- perhaps just for the coming week.


We could have some tropical potential near FL come mid July. Like I said many time though the MDR by September is forecast to be shut down by many models. Anything that forms might be near or past 20N.
Quoting 14. sar2401:



not a wise first post lets see how it goes likely not far
go easy hard will not work out well
Quoting 13. StormTrackerScott:



Flooding rains & severe weather. El-Nino's especially the stronger they produce some large violent tornadoes that usually occur at night. Come October everyone in FL should pay close attention to future forecast as we could be in for one heck of a Fall/Winter season across FL.


Just because it was bad in '97 & '98 does not guarantee the same for this winter. This El Niño has been acting a bit weird. Look at all the rains in Texas and Oklahoma- but what did California get? Virtually nothing. No one knows what level of intensity El Niño will be come winter.
dang boys and girls....i walk in here...and comment after comment is missing.......thinking i got here at just the right time......after the fighting and the mess is already cleaned up......

thanx for the post doc
Thank You Dr. Masters. Notwithstanding the normal Atlantic/Caribbean lull period, with the El Nino shear factor, I do hope that our friends in the Lesser Antilles are able to muscle some needed rain in the coming weeks. The larger Islands, like Cuba, are able to generate summer "pop up" showers with the sea breeze action but the smaller islands are dependent on tropical moisture from waves to help rain deficits. I hope something more substantial gets going for them soon:



OK DOC..WHY was the Florida weather blog Banned?????????????? nothing at all but weather in there???..
Quoting 22. ricderr:

dang boys and girls....i walk in here...and comment after comment is missing.......thinking i got here at just the right time......after the fighting and the mess is already cleaned up......

thanx for the post doc


I'm not sure what happened. There was one weird comment from a first time commenter but I see several other comments were removed as well.
Quoting 24. LargoFl:

OK DOC..WHY was the Florida weather blog Banned?????????????? nothing at all but weather in there???..


I think Scott was just banned so with it goes his blog. I'm not sure why he was banned though.
Hello Doc:
Please get the Florida weather blog restored.
Thanks.
Rapid Response - LANCE - Gallery - NASA

6 images of smoke and fire
Your figure 2 depicting Pacific Surface Winds resembles von Gogh's Starry Night painting.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 3m3 minutes ago
CSU seasonal forecast update will be released tomorrow, July 1st around 11am EDT.

Quoting 12. sar2401:

Maybe not even for the coming week. It all depends on how strong the fronts, that will coming every couple of days, can stay as they get off the coast, and if they can be strong enough to promote cyclogenesis in the favored areas off the SE coast. As Dr. Masters wrote, none of the fronts look that strong so far, but the instability off the SE coast is at least sufficient to keep things going if one can start. Anyway, there sure isn't anything else to watch, so we might as well stare blankly out into the Atlantic. :-)

Although I miss the intense interest when a storm is brewing, living along the coast I am glad we are staring blankly....
I started a temporary Florida weather blog. I'll get rid of it once the regular one is back in action.

*Sorry for the blog plug.*

Quoting 26. tampabaymatt:



I think Scott was just banned so with it goes his blog. I'm not sure why he was banned though.
Dr. Masters dosen't concern himself with the blog comments...or any any action taken by the violation of the community standards.


He has other duties, thats why we have ADMIN, and mods.


Try the phish, as it is Tuesday.

: )
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



not a wise first post lets see how it goes likely not far
I believe I know who's really doing the posting...again. Persistent, if nothing else.
Quoting 36. Patrap:

Dr. Masters dosen't concern himself with the blog comments...or any any action taken by the violation of the community standards.


He has other duties, thats why we have ADMIN, and mods.


Try the phish, as it is Tuesday.

: )


Phish as in Bull Shark?
RAAMB Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

SH252015 - Tropical Cyclone (<34 kt) TWENTYFIVE




Two more days of high heat then back to Abnormal. Normal is 89/62....
Try the phish, as it is Tuesday.


i due the phish on friday....today is taco tuesday

Quoting 40. PedleyCA:


Two more days of high heat then back to Abnormal. Normal is 89/62....


In Mobile we'll be in the low 90's all week. Pretty normal.
Quoting 31. JustDucky251:

Although I miss the intense interest when a storm is brewing, living along the coast I am glad we are staring blankly....
This quote system is just terrible. If you don't start your reply after the last "em" and "'/blockquote" the reply gets put in with the original post text making it tough to tell where one ends and the other one starts. I pasted your reply here so my post might make better sense.

While Florida often gets the attention, Mobile and the Panhandle has also not been affected by major since 2005. The last tropical system of any kind was Ida in 2009, and that caused more problems in places like Opelika than it did closer to the the landfall. I don't know that the presence of an El Nino makes it more likely that the Gulf Coast will get a hurricane but it does make it less likely that any place else will get one, so it seems like it. The present low shear and average instability in the eastern Gulf are decent conditions for something to get started if we can get a forcing mechanism. That's most likely to come from a cold front stalled offshore SW of Cuba. So far, the fronts have been washing out over us, or have been so weak that nothing gets going. These anomalously strong lows over the Plains will keep pushing fronts south, and one may create the right conditions. It's been a while, as you know, but Mobile has a history of history of getting quick spinup storms that hit with very little warning. There's no evidence of that happening yet, but it remains the biggest threat for us this hurricane season since it's not likely we'll see a long track CV storm.
At

43. sar2401
11:59 AM CDT on June 30, 2015

Thanks for the reply fix.
I won't be unhappy if nothing spins up. 2005 is still too fresh in the memory.
Quoting 44. JustDucky251:

At

43. sar2401
11:59 AM CDT on June 30, 2015

Thanks for the reply fix.
I won't be unhappy if nothing spins up. 2005 is still too fresh in the memory.


2004 was not good for Florida. I would not relish seeing that again either.
Well that's all folks. With Scott's El Nino set to ramp up, we in the Caribbean are busted with regards to rain it would seem... Bill may just have been the best and brightest the Atlantic can produce this season.
I hope I am totally wrong and there is some moisture ahead for all of us. It wouldn't hurt to have a slow moving TS run through the islands from south to north.
Still waiting for WunderMap to play a visible loop correctly....
Tornado warning close to me.
Quoting 49. TCweatherman:

Tornado warning close to me.

478  
WFUS54 KMOB 301712  
TORMOB  
ALC003-025-053-099-129-301800-  
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0012.150630T1712Z-150630T1800Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1211 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCINTOSH...OR 12 MILES  
SOUTH OF JACKSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POARCH CREEK RESERVATION... MCCULLOUGH...  
URIAH... I65 AND CR 1...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE  
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3127 8800 3143 8796 3133 8741 3107 8750  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 287DEG 25KT 3132 8791  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab AL Page

The Nexlab FL Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 50. Patrap:




I take it that you are not surprised that there have not been more storms this year.
It was 31C (88F) today with a UV index of 8 (UK scale is usually 1-7 so was off the scale today!) in London. It reached 33C (91.5F) in Jersey too, their hottest day since August 2003! Tomorrow is forecast to be 34C (93F) for London tomorrow, but given today was forecast to be 29-30C, there's a real possibility of the UK temperature record to be broken (36.5C/97.7F) for July. The overall temperature record is 38.5C (101.3F) which was set in August 2003.
sar2401

Hope you are under cover.
Quoting 49. TCweatherman:

Tornado warning close to me.
That warned cell is going to pass to the south of you. There's another intense cell just west of Georgiana that has a better chance of getting in your neighborhood. It's not warned yet but you need to keep an eye on it. It's about 40-45 minutes from you. Nothing at all by me.
Quoting 54. JustDucky251:

sar2401

Hope you are under cover.
Nothing near me. All the warned cells are in the Panhandle, but the tornado warned cell is headed toward I-65 and Atmore. There are other cells developing to the south of that one, and it's likely you'll get something before I do. These cells have been blowing up very quickly so it's a good day to keep an eye on the sky and the radar.

Well that's all folks. With Scott's El Nino set to ramp up, we in the Caribbean are busted with regards to rain it would seem... Bill may just have been the best and brightest the Atlantic can produce this season.
I hope I am totally wrong and there is some moisture ahead for all of us. It wouldn't hurt to have a slow moving TS run through the islands from south to north.


this is where the misinformation gets to me.......the average decrease in rain for the carribean is just under ten percent during their wet season during an el nino event.......
Quoting 52. JustDucky251:



I take it that you are not surprised that there have not been more storms this year.




If we get another landfall in the next 8 days, we would be right on pace with 2005.

We are right on climatology with 2 named storms as of today.
Quoting 57. ricderr:


Well that's all folks. With Scott's El Nino set to ramp up, we in the Caribbean are busted with regards to rain it would seem... Bill may just have been the best and brightest the Atlantic can produce this season.
I hope I am totally wrong and there is some moisture ahead for all of us. It wouldn't hurt to have a slow moving TS run through the islands from south to north.


this is where the misinformation gets to me.......the average decrease in rain for the carribean is just under ten percent during their wet season during an el nino event.......


What gets me I have never seen it as dry in the Carib extending all the way from Puerto Rico to Central America's Coast Rica and into Florida (although it seems to be getting wetter lately on the east coast). Call it the Drought Triangle. Water rationing is taking place in Costa Rica as well as in Puerto Rico. Who knows where else down there.
Thanks Dr M. I am so happy guys. I have been promoted to an administrator,at 14 years old,of a tropicswatch page on Facebook in association with www.stormpulse.com. I provided the founder of the website with useful model analysis of tropical weather around the globe, and after consistently helping him, I was promoted to an administrator.
It wouldn't surprise me in the LEAST if Klotzbach and company decrease their numbers even further when they release their latest outlook on the season come tomorrow.

That's my prediction, of course, but it's just shaping up to be that kind of an unprecedentedly inactive year, folks.

Y'all heard it here first.

Criticize me if you'd like, but that was by far the MAIN reason as to why this Miamian over here did not get ready for this year's hurricane season.

PS: One month down, five more to go!
Not much, but any rainfall is more then welcomed.

Quoting 36. Patrap:

Dr. Masters dosen't concern himself with the blog comments...or any any action taken by the violation of the community standards.


He has other duties, thats why we have ADMIN, and mods.


Try the phish, as it is Tuesday.

: )


So you speak for Dr. Masters now? What concerns him, what doesn't concern him, his duties, etc? Nice.
What gets me I have never seen it as dry in the Carib extending all the way to Central America's Coast Rica and into Florida (although it seems to be getting wetter lately on the east coast). Call it the Drought Triangle. Water rationing is taking place in Costa Rica as well as in Puerto Rico. Who knows where else down there.


i agree it's dry...and i feel for the people...my point is that we need to look carefully at what is and what is not typical of el nino....



Quoting 49. TCweatherman:

Tornado warning close to me.
That storm going through Georgiana just went warned. It looks like it will pass just north of Andalusia, but it will be close. I hope you have a weather radio.
Yea, I've officially moved to the straughn community so this one will hit me directly.
Quoting 55. sar2401:

That warned cell is going to pass to the south of you. There's another intense cell just west of Georgiana that has a better chance of getting in your neighborhood. It's not warned yet but you need to keep an eye on it. It's about 40-45 minutes from you. Nothing at all by me.
Quoting 66. PoliticalCorrectness:

Why is it that, on the first day you've posted here, you seem to know a lot about everyone? It's almost like you've been here before...
"Deep Derp Detected".....




Quoting 69. TCweatherman:

Yea, I've officially moved to the straughn community so this one will hit me directly.
How far and which direction is that from Andalusia?
People are already putting the nail in the coffin for the atlantic which is pretty pathetic considering that even if you do have low numbers you can still get high impact and that its June.But go on ahead because that'll be your a** if nature decides to throw a curve ball.
Beautiful rain showers in the GOM and along the TX coast today. Ahhhh
76. vis0
Thank You Dr. Masters for the ying-yang   yang-ying TSs. Hope all TS moved only over water, but...???...Lets observe and help those in their path with the needed info pre & post storms.
Quoting 75. RitaEvac:

Beautiful rain showers in the GOM and along the TX coast today. Ahhhh


Hope many of them reach me
There have been Major Cane Landfall's, every year ending with a 5 since 65.

Jus a lil note.

: P
About 10 miles northeast of Andy.
Quoting 72. sar2401:

How far and which direction is that from Andalusia?
Quoting 77. txjac:



Hope many of them reach me


Whatever is going on, this flareup was not forecasted over the Gulf
Quoting 78. Patrap:

There have been Major Cane Landfall's, every year ending with a 5 since 65.

Jus a lil note.

: P


Let's hope thats a chain that is broken this year
We had our first severe thunderstorm warning in Alabama at 6:39 am. We've since had five other warnings from Birmingham and at least three others out of Mobile including one tornado warning. The eastern Panhandle and south Georgia are just about covered in warnings. I wonder what it would take to move the SPC's chance of a watch to, say, 50%?

Geez....

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301638Z - 301815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

EDIT: Well, the SPC finally decided to see it my way and issued the watch. The watch was issued for the counties exactly south of me and for Quitman County Georgia, one mile away across the river...but not for me. This appears to have been done to keep the watch out of the Birmingham coverage area. If I didn't have the Quitman County SAME code in my radio (and wasn't a weather geek) I'd never know it had happened.

Geez....

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC003-031-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-097-010100 -
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0376.150630T1805Z-150701T0100Z/

AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON
CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA
GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON
MOBILE
Quoting 65. ricderr:

What gets me I have never seen it as dry in the Carib extending all the way to Central America's Coast Rica and into Florida (although it seems to be getting wetter lately on the east coast). Call it the Drought Triangle. Water rationing is taking place in Costa Rica as well as in Puerto Rico. Who knows where else down there.


i agree it's dry...and i feel for the people...my point is that we need to look carefully at what is and what is not typical of el nino....






Well fair to state that Costa Rica has been having ongoing water shortages since 2014. They blame it on tourism and developers. We can't say that here in Florida for the most part.
Quoting 80. TCweatherman:

About 10 miles northeast of Andy.
OK, that might be just far enough south that this cell will miss you. It's starting to turn slightly NNE and head more toward Brantley. Don't listen to me though, just pay attention to the weather radio.
79.
you have just dropped a major hint...I know who you are now..the title of your username was already suspicious and now you've just ratted yourself out.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

Why is it that, on the first day you've posted here, you seem to know a lot about everyone? It's almost like you've been here before...


I've been on here for a few months but was an active reader (mostly during hurricane season) for years. So I knew a lot about folks without ever posting.
Need the storms in Bama to push South if were to see any rain along the coast in the FL Panhandle. Might be our last good chance of rain for a while by the looks of it.

Lol, it's windy already now. Just a little bit of thunder.
Quoting 85. sar2401:

OK, that might be just far enough south that this cell will miss you. It's starting to turn slightly NNE and head more toward Brantley. Don't listen to me though, just pay attention to the weather radio.
Quoting 89. TCweatherman:

Lol, it's windy already now. Just a little bit of thunder.


The other night I had quite a bit of thunder ...angels bowling as my Mom called it.
My poor little Peanut was going out of his mind ...there's just no comforting him.
We did receive about three minutes of rain so far today ...no measurable amount

Has anyone tried those thunder sweaters for animals? Do they work? Want to know before I purchase as they are kind of pricey

Looks like I have some showers on the way ...if they just hold together long enough to get to me
Quoting 87. Bucsboltsfan:



I've been on here for a few months but was an active reader (mostly during hurricane season) for years. So I knew a lot about folks without ever posting.
Not like this guy. Trust me on this.
so...i got the mini time out for posting a pic of a body bag....empty i might add...and the pic was found on amazon where they sell them.....

i posted the picture in response to a comment from a poster who stated he was not preparing for this hurricane season.....

there were no disparaging comments.....it wasn't an attack.....i didn't violate any of the rules of the road.....

and the body bag reference is correct as those that are not prepared....are over 10 times more likely to suffer injury including death than those that do.........homes that are not prepared average over double the damage than homes that are prepared.....on and on and on

in other words......if you don't prepare.......don't worry...your local....state...and federal government have already prepared for you.....body bags are a part of their disaster preparation
Quoting 26. tampabaymatt:



I think Scott was just banned so with it goes his blog. I'm not sure why he was banned though.
ok thanks, I see the florida blog has been restored now
Quoting 89. TCweatherman:

Lol, it's windy already now. Just a little bit of thunder.
It's definitely going to miss you now. It turned even more NE and is about to enter Brantley. It's headed toward Elba after that. There's a watch out for your area now, and a storm coming through Castleberry has a pretty good chance of hitting you in the next half hour.
Quoting 93. ricderr:

so...i got the mini time out for posting a pic of a body bag....empty i might add...and the pic was found on amazon where they sell them.....

i posted the picture in response to a comment from a poster who stated he was not preparing for this hurricane season.....

there were no disparaging comments.....it wasn't an attack.....i didn't violate any of the rules of the road.....

and the body bag reference is correct as those that are not prepared....are over 10 times more likely to suffer injury including death than those that do.........homes that are not prepared average over double the damage than homes that are prepared.....on and on and on

in other words......if you don't prepare.......don't worry...your local....state...and federal government have already prepared for you.....body bags are a part of their disaster preparation


Sorry about your time out ...kind of reminds me of news reports going out to people that decide to "ride out" the storm ...telling them to write the social security number on their arm/leg/body to assist with identification
Hey doc interesting blog

There are something I agree with some not interesting either way

Sorry about your time out ...kind of reminds me of news reports going out to people that decide to "ride out" the storm ...telling them to write the social security number on their arm/leg/body to assist with identification


exactly!!!!!......
FLC089-GAC039-049-065-299-301845-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0180.150630T1813Z-150630T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
EAST CENTRAL CLINCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLIARD...FOLKSTON...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...HOMELAND...ST.
GEORGE AND KINGS FERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&
.
out in time but something to watch out for..............................
Quoting 91. txjac:



The other night I had quite a bit of thunder ...angels bowling as my Mom called it.
My poor little Peanut was going out of his mind ...there's just no comforting him.
We did receive about three minutes of rain so far today ...no measurable amount

Has anyone tried those thunder sweaters for animals? Do they work? Want to know before I purchase as they are kind of pricey

Looks like I have some showers on the way ...if they just hold together long enough to get to me


My golden retriever, Brandy, was the world's worst. One day, I left the house for an hour, and there was a thunderstorm. He managed to get himself trapped in the bathroom, trying to get away from the noise. When I got back it was a total shambles. Diarrhea all over the place, paint clawed off the door, and wallpaper off the wall. He lost four claws in his frenzy, and his paws were bloody.

He was even worse with fireworks, and ran off for half a day when he heard bagpipes in the local park. Total nightmare.
Quoting 97. wunderkidcayman:

Hey doc interesting blog

There are something I agree with some not interesting either way


I had the feeling there would parts of the blog you didn't agree with.
12Z GFS has the gulf Low going to TX/LA at the end of its run,way out in time......


The Bogus Creek Fire burns in the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge in southwest Alaska, in this Alaska Division of Forestry picture taken June 7, 2015.
Quoting 98. ricderr:

Sorry about your time out ...kind of reminds me of news reports going out to people that decide to "ride out" the storm ...telling them to write the social security number on their arm/leg/body to assist with identification


exactly!!!!!......
There's apparently a new rule out about posting pictures of an empty body bag. I guess it was a stealth rule. I'm sure it makes sense to someone.
Quoting 102. yonzabam:



My golden retriever, Brandy, was the world's worst. One day, I left the house for an hour, and there was a thunderstorm. He managed to get himself trapped in the bathroom, trying to get away from the noise. When I got back it was a total shambles. Diarrhea all over the place, paint clawed off the door, and wallpaper off the wall. He lost four claws in his frenzy, and his paws were bloody.

He was even worse with fireworks, and ran off for half a day when he heard bagpipes in the local park. Total nightmare.


That's why I have Cats ..... lol
64% of Americans unprepared for natural disasters

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, a new YouGov Omnibus survey has shown that the number of those in the Northeast who are “very concerned” about natural disasters has nearly doubled since last May, when we took the same poll. (You can find our previous write-up here.) Despite the increased concern, a majority of Americans still remain unprepared for natural disasters.
Damage in the state totaled to over $13 billion (2004 USD). Charley initially was expected to hit further north in Tampa, and caught many Floridians off-guard due to a sudden change in the storm's track as it approached the state. Throughout the United States, Charley caused 10 deaths and $15.4 billion in damage, making it the second costliest hurricane in United States history at the time (it has since dropped to 8th). Charley was a compact, fast-moving storm, which limited the scope and severity of the damage
oh dear...
CPC bullish for Pacific activity....

There is a moderate potential early in the period for two additional tropical cyclones to form between Chan-hom's current position and the Philippines during the next several days, and there is a higher potential for additional tropical cyclone formation between 155E and the Date Line. Later in the Week-1 period through Week-2, additional KW activity constructively interfering with the El Nino may promote tropical cyclone formation south or southeast of Hawaii.
Additionally, relaxing vertical shear and KW activity may increase the potential for tropical cyclogenesis over southwestern portions of the East Pacific basin towards the end of Week-2.

Link
Nice flareup of storms along the Florida/GA border this afternoon:

Quoting 111. aquak9:

oh dear...


Indeed.
Tom Skilling on Climate Disruption

Climate change deniers claim global warming stopped more than a decade ago. But WGN Chief Meteorologist Tom Skilling is here to tell us about a new study that shows NO slowdown.


Link
Quoting 93. ricderr:

so...i got the mini time out for posting a pic of a body bag....empty i might add...and the pic was found on amazon where they sell them.....

i posted the picture in response to a comment from a poster who stated he was not preparing for this hurricane season.....

there were no disparaging comments.....it wasn't an attack.....i didn't violate any of the rules of the road.....

and the body bag reference is correct as those that are not prepared....are over 10 times more likely to suffer injury including death than those that do.........homes that are not prepared average over double the damage than homes that are prepared.....on and on and on

in other words......if you don't prepare.......don't worry...your local....state...and federal government have already prepared for you.....body bags are a part of their disaster preparation
We were affected in 2006 and 2009 both which were "quiet" hurricane seasons.They caused flooding in V.A beach and flooding up along the Atlantic coast too.
Quoting 91. txjac:



The other night I had quite a bit of thunder ...angels bowling as my Mom called it.
My poor little Peanut was going out of his mind ...there's just no comforting him.
We did receive about three minutes of rain so far today ...no measurable amount

Has anyone tried those thunder sweaters for animals? Do they work? Want to know before I purchase as they are kind of pricey

Looks like I have some showers on the way ...if they just hold together long enough to get to me
Yes, I wasted $30 on a thunder sweater. Doesn't work for Radar Dog. Of course, nothing has worked for Radar Dog. :-)
Quoting 111. aquak9:

oh dear...
Goodness me...
Mobile is getting dark and windy. Wetness is coming.
Florida. Fourteen deaths from Florida's Miami-Dade, Broward, and Walton counties were identified as being directly, indirectly, or possibly related to Hurricane Katrina during August 25--September 1 (Table). Decedents ranged in age from 17 to 79 years (mean: 53 years; median: 58 years); 71% were male. Of the 14 deaths, 13 (93%) were classified as resulting from unintentional injuries, and one was listed as "manner undetermined pending further studies." The majority (79%) of deaths occurred during the impact phase (August 25, 26, and 29), with only three occurring after impact. Of the 13 deaths for which no cause or manner was determined, eight (62%) were attributed to trauma, three (23%) to drowning, and two (15%) to carbon monoxide poisoning.

Of the 14 deaths, five were directly related to the hurricane: two persons drowned on boats that sank during the storm, two died from trees falling on them during the hurricane, and one was found floating in the water after the hurricane. Eight deaths were indirectly related: three persons died in car collisions with fallen trees in the road, two were struck and killed by falling tree limbs during cleanup, one sustained fatal injuries from a fall off a ladder after the hurricane, and two died from carbon monoxide poisoning as a result of generator use in a laundry room adjoining the residence.
Hurricane Sandy was a horrific natural disaster, and my heart goes out to everyone who is suffering from its aftermath. If we want to prevent future deaths, loss, trauma, and pain, however, we must confront a terrible truth: much of the suffering that people are enduring was both man-made and preventable.</em>
At the moment conditions are not so favourable
However I do see conditions improving in about 8-12 days time
And the possibility of one or two storms developing around the Caribbean more so W Caribbean from 75W and westwards and/or GOM more so NE GOM and/or near SE US coast

I've been watching the SST/As in the Atlantic and Caribbean and GOM and overall it's warming up it had cooled down a bit over the past couple of weeks but over the past 7 days or so it's warmed more so the Caribbean and GOM

Also has anyone noticed the cool pool N of equator just S of W Africa if I recall if this happened this would help the tropical waves that come off Africa

Anyway on another note I shall be off during the next 3 days or so doing some joint training with police emergency operation management navy marines etc

So I just may pop in and out when I'm free and have Internet

Quoting 114. weathermanwannabe:

Nice flareup of storms along the Florida/GA border this afternoon:


An even bigger flare up near the AL/MS state line. Lots of warnings out including one tornado warning about an hour ago. SPC was right on top of it though. It only took seven and one-half hours to issue the watch from the time of the first severe thunderstorm warning.
Seafood supply altered by climate change

The global supply of seafood is set to change substantially and many people will not be able to enjoy the same quantity and dishes in the future due to climate change and ocean acidification, according to UBC scientists.

These findings were released today in Japan by the Nereus program, an international research team led by UBC scientists and supported by the Nippon Foundation. The Nereus program was formed to study the future of the world’s oceans and seafood resources. Today it released a summary of the first phase of its research in a report titled ‘Predicting Future Ocean.’ Researchers say that the future supply of seafood will be substantially altered by climate change, overfishing and other human activities.


Link

A video from the Nippon Foundation shows the migration of marine species away from their current habitats.

Link
Warned storm headed toward you, TC. Looks like others may form behind these so pay attention to the radio.
Quoting 125. ricderr:

Hurricane Sandy was a horrific natural disaster, and my heart goes out to everyone who is suffering from its aftermath. If we want to prevent future deaths, loss, trauma, and pain, however, we must confront a terrible truth: much of the suffering that people are enduring was both man-made and preventable.</em>
We get it, Ric, but you're not going to convince whomever it was that handed out the ban. Time to give it up.
There's apparently a new rule out about posting pictures of an empty body bag. I guess it was a stealth rule. I'm sure it makes sense to someone.


all i know is i'm sure it doesn't make sense to me........i have no problem with being banned when i deserve it....in fact...in the past....i've posted knowing full well that what the content was and that i would be banned.....but when i'm banned because a mod had decided to take what i've said not at face value...but read something into it.....something that was not intended nor do i think the common person would....i become a bit pissy
Quoting 106. sar2401:

There's apparently a new rule out about posting pictures of an empty body bag. I guess it was a stealth rule. I'm sure it makes sense to someone.


Last hurricanes, 05, Sheriff Deputy's went out to the barrier island and asked them to evacuate... as will happen, some were stubborn. The deputy's pulled out a big Sharpie and said give me your arm... "What for?" So I can write your Social Security number on you so we know who you are when we find you floating.. Most evacuated...
Quoting 88. 69Viking:

Need the storms in Bama to push South if were to see any rain along the coast in the FL Panhandle. Might be our last good chance of rain for a while by the looks of it.



I got poured on with some localized cells between 11 and 12 earlier. Last good chance of rain??
ric, are you sure it was the content you posted that caused the ban? You said you quoted somebody- was that post removed? I was once banned because I quoted a post that had a funny video. The poster I quoted was banned, and I got whacked along with him. Just a thought.

On a weather note, thunder's been rolling here, a little rain earlier. Skies to my west look a bit dark, and looking at the radar, we've got incoming.
Some year over year contrast:



Quoting 137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sorry about yer luck get over it


That's not very moderator like.
3 day forecast intensity going up now.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
3:00 AM JST July 1 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (998 hPa) located at 10.0N 158.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 10.6N 155.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 11.2N 152.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
72 HRS: 12.0N 148.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Have a plan for disaster: Left unprepared, your business may not survive
Some businesses never reopen after disasters


Facts on disasters and small business
10 percent of small business bankruptcies result from disasters and other calamities.
38 percent of small businesses have a disaster preparedness plan.
30 percent of small businesses have been forced to shut their doors at least temporarily within the past three years because of a disaster.
40 percent of small businesses never reopen following a flood, tornado, earthquake or other disaster.
Source: Staples


Posted: Sunday, May 24, 2015 12:00 am
By JOHN STANCAVAGE World Business Columnist | 0 comments
When a sprinkler system came on unexpectedly about a year ago at Hillcrest Medical Center, water gushed out, drained down four elevator shafts and flooded seven floors.
Before the water could do too much damage, however, the hospital was putting a carefully written, pre-existing plan into place.
The medical center called on a different plan in March, when tornadoes were sighted nearby and clouds above the facility began rotating. That plan enabled hospital staff to move about 200 mobile patients into the facility’s basement, along with a few nearby residents who showed up seeking better shelter, in less than 15 minutes.
The tornado hit Sand Springs before stopping almost literally at Hillcrest’s front door.
“It was the first time in the hospital’s history that we’ve had to do that,” said Carrisa Nix, the hospital’s safety officer. “But the staff performed very well and everything went smoothly.”
With the broken sprinkler system, Hillcrest quickly summoned a emergency repair firm. It arrived in a short time to make sure damage was minimized and that the facility was back to normal as quickly as possible.
Hillcrest also has separate protocols designed to deal with many other emergencies, including storm damage, fires and power outages.
“We have plans for everything,” said spokeswoman Angela Peterson. “We take them out and practice them on a regular basis.”
all i know is i'm sure it doesn't make sense to me........i have no problem with being banned when i deserve it....in fact...in the past....i've posted knowing full well that what the content was and that i would be banned.....but when i'm banned because a mod had decided to take what i've said not at face value...but read something into it.....something that was not intended nor do i think the common person would....i become a bit pissy

Ric, love, (LMAO at that one) - maybe you shoulda just posted a picture of a sharpie? those of us that got it woulda laughed and laughed.
Quoting 139. Naga5000:



That's not very moderator like.
no but with ric he much rather have a direct answer do not engage
Ric - - Staples sells Sharpies- in a four-pack family pack. They also come in rainbow colors
for PoliticalCorrectness.

I'm killin' myself here....
and with that...i'm out......let me take my fingers and run...no need to get upset over a blog......let me lose some chips playing poker....that's a good enough reason........
Quoting 138. FrostyNaples:

Some year over year contrast:




Arthur got started tomorrow. The next storm wasn't for another month. We've already had two before July. Not the best year over year contrast to use.


weird spin over the lakes today

bbl
Quoting 145. aquak9:

Ric - - Staples sells Sharpies- in a four-pack family pack. They also come in rainbow colors
for PoliticalCorrectness.

I'm killin' myself here....

LOL. Rainbow colors too. It's pretty funny Staples should be advising businesses about disasters considering...well, you know, it's Staples.
Ric- before you go-
I too, complained about Keeper, and A. I got my posts removed, B. I got banned for a short period of time, C. It was explained to me that he seems to be able to handle a certain demographic of the bloggers that the other mods can't/don't want to deal with-

and D. Lotsa good intelligent folks were asked to be mods, and they said oh hell NO, so I guess I shouldn't complain.

At least we have someone who will swiftly handle the JFVTroll.
EPB board hikes residential electricty rate by 3.5 percent, cites 'extreme weather' as one reason

Extreme weather — hotter summers and colder winters, both of which produce bigger storms — was cited by EPB's President and CEO Harold DePriest as a reason for the rate increase, the first since 2011.

"For 15 years, I budgeted about $2 million a year for storm restoration work," DePriest told the board at its regular business meeting. Now that's climbed to $6 million annually — punctuated by tornado-ravaged 2011 when, he said, EPB spent $26 million fixing storm damage. Federal Emergency Management Agency funds helped offset that, he said.


Link
Quoting 148. sar2401:

Arthur got started tomorrow. The next storm wasn't for another month. We've already had two before July. Not the best year over year contrast to use.


The best of what? Don't put words where they don't belong. There's no debate, simple graphic showing 2014, and where we are to date.

Quoting 132. indianrivguy:



Last hurricanes, 05, Sheriff Deputy's went out to the barrier island and asked them to evacuate... as will happen, some were stubborn. The deputy's pulled out a big Sharpie and said give me your arm... "What for?" So I can write your Social Security number on you so we know who you are when we find you floating.. Most evacuated...
Yeah, we used to do that too, except it was their driver's license number. You can't run anyone in NCIC by the SS number, and almost every adult in California has a D/L or ID card. Also asked for a list of their next of kin they wanted notified. Most got the picture and left before the flood hit.
NWS needs to use a different color for these. There's a bunch of these issued now, but sometimes they're hard to differentiate from the HWO color.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
224 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LAZ048-050-302000-
LIVINGSTON-EAST BATON ROUGE-
224 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND
CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISHES...

AT 224 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NORTHERN BATON
ROUGE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...FRENCH SETTLEMENT...
PORT VINCENT...GREENWELL SPRING...SHENANDOAH...INNISWOLD...
MONTICELLO...MERRYDALE...WATSON...BROWNFIELDS...W ESTMINSTER...OLD
JEFFERSON AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Quoting 143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no but with ric he much rather have a direct answer do not engage


Hey, I'm just cheering from the sidelines, Keeper. No engagement here, I just yell at the refs on occasion. :)
Quoting 126. wunderkidcayman:

At the moment conditions are not so favourable
However I do see conditions improving in about 8-12 days time
And the possibility of one or two storms developing around the Caribbean more so W Caribbean from 75W and westwards and/or GOM more so NE GOM and/or near SE US coast

I've been watching the SST/As in the Atlantic and Caribbean and GOM and overall it's warming up it had cooled down a bit over the past couple of weeks but over the past 7 days or so it's warmed more so the Caribbean and GOM

Also has anyone noticed the cool pool N of equator just S of W Africa if I recall if this happened this would help the tropical waves that come off Africa

Anyway on another note I shall be off during the next 3 days or so doing some joint training with police emergency operation management navy marines etc

So I just may pop in and out when I'm free and have Internet




8-12 days out is a long way to be thinking about a storm developing. Conditions are highly unfavorable throughout the Caribbean and MDR. It's not just about sst, wind shear and dry sinking air are really in play. Good luck with your training.
Quoting 153. FrostyNaples:



The best of what? Don't put words where they don't belong. There's no debate, simple graphic showing 2014, and where we are to date.


It's not a good contrast if you're trying to show that 2015 is somehow worse than 2014. If that's not what you meant, what did you mean?
Almost here-

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Statement as of 2:28 PM CDT on June 30, 2015

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southern Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida...

* until 330 PM CDT

* at 228 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging
winds over 60 mph was located 10 miles north of Wright... and moving
east at 25 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Niceville... Valparaiso... Eglin AFB...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms often produce frequent cloud to ground
lightning. Please take cover until the storm passes.

To report severe weather... call (800) 284-9059.


Lat... Lon 3043 8643 3040 8643 3041 8644 3046 8642
3050 8645 3051 8643 3051 8645 3048 8647
3052 8650 3047 8648 3044 8655 3052 8680
3070 8674 3066 8639 3045 8639 3045 8642
3039 8640
time... Mot... loc 1928z 286deg 23kt 3060 8669

Extreme weather claims 12 lives in southern Punjab

More than 150 patients are still being treated in the hospital. Most of the patients are elderly and poor.Meanwhile, several areas of Balochistan are also facing very hot weather as the Met Office said on Monday that the maximum temperature of 47 degree Celsius was in Turbat and Nokkundi, 45 degree Celsius in Sibi and 42 degree Celsius in Panjgur and Lasbella.But the story is different for AJK as the first torrential rain coupled with strong winds in certain parts of the region, including Mirpur, provided a respite from the scorching heat.

Link
hmm.. claims to be the first cyclone of the 2015-16 season, which starts November 1st (by the way), as it's identified as 01U.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAQUEL, CATEGORY ONE (01U)
4:56 AM EST July 1 2015
=================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Raquel, Category One (999 hPa) located at 5.8S 159.3E or 410 km north of Honiara, Solomon Islands has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 6.8S 158.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 7.2S 158.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 7.7S 158.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 8.1S 158.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical Cyclone Raquel was named this morning, primarily following the arrival of an AMSU-B microwave image at 301559 UTC, which gave a very good indication of the degree of curvature occurring underneath the cold overcast. The Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with around a 0.6 degree wrap,
giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were also 3.0. The FT was based on MET as the DT was not clear cut.

Tropical cyclone Raquel has developed at a steady rate over the last 24 hours and thunderstorm activity has significantly increased near the estimated low level center this morning. The system is expected to intensify as it moves towards the Solomon Islands today and into Thursday. At this stage, it is anticipated that it could intensify to a category 2 system by Thursday, but this will be reevaluated following the arrival of the first visible satellite image this morning, which should give a better indication of the current structure of the system. Considering the degree of thunderstorm activity occurring near the estimated low level centre it is possible that the system could be slightly stronger than currently analyzed.

Tropical cyclone Raquel should continue moving towards the southwest today and into Thursday under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the east of the Solomon Islands. The system should become slow moving by Friday as this steering influence breaks down with the approach of an mid-level trough moving eastwards across the Coral Sea.
Quoting 160. sar2401:

It's not a good contrast if you're trying to show that 2015 is somehow worse than 2014. If that's not what you meant, what did you mean?


Lol, I didn't mean anything, again, just putting two graphics out there, one last year, one year to date.

I said nothing else, meant nothing else.

Don't you like pictures?
Quoting 135. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Nice group of thunderstorms coming up towards Texas from the GOM.
More rains possibly for a region gettings lots of it this year.
Quoting 163. HadesGodWyvern:

hmm.. claims to be the first cyclone of the 2015-16 season, which starts November 1st (by the way),


Is WU chat down?
Quoting 167. Cat5WPB:

Is WU chat down?
there is no more WU chat its gone the way of the dinosaurs
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:



Last hurricanes, 05, Sheriff Deputy's went out to the barrier island and asked them to evacuate... as will happen, some were stubborn. The deputy's pulled out a big Sharpie and said give me your arm... "What for?" So I can write your Social Security number on you so we know who you are when we find you floating.. Most evacuated...


Maybe the answer then is to post photos of Sharpie markers.

Quoting 168. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is no more WU chat its gone the way of the dinosaurs


Hmmm.. must have missed that. There is still a page, but it doesn't load the rooms. Wonder why they did away with it. Had a lot of good times in there!
Quoting 93. ricderr:

so...i got the mini time out for posting a pic of a body bag....empty i might add...and the pic was found on amazon where they sell them.....

i posted the picture in response to a comment from a poster who stated he was not preparing for this hurricane season.....

there were no disparaging comments.....it wasn't an attack.....i didn't violate any of the rules of the road.....

and the body bag reference is correct as those that are not prepared....are over 10 times more likely to suffer injury including death than those that do.........homes that are not prepared average over double the damage than homes that are prepared.....on and on and on

in other words......if you don't prepare.......don't worry...your local....state...and federal government have already prepared for you.....body bags are a part of their disaster preparation


How odd, but then again, this site IS sort of pseudo-political at times, and the PC-Police are always watching, especially in matters related to weather. I recently have been watching a documentary about the Dust Bowl. Very interesting, and as horrendously bad as the weather got back then...the automobile simply had not been around long enough nor in large enough numbers to cause all that bad weather - drought, winds, etc. It evidently was not man-made climate change. However, if it had by some misfortune of time happened in these days, you can bet it would have been blamed on man-made style climate change, right?

Btw, as for the bags idea you mentioned and the ban: consider how even on school campuses nationwide there are wrecked autos set in place at times to warn kids against driving while intoxicated. If school kids can be faced with such things for their benefit, why is it so unthinkable here, online, to save lives?
Job opportunities -

‘Ill-equipped Met dept’ cannot predict extreme weather

“Our forecast system should predict the upcoming extreme weather events so that early precautionary measures could be taken. We usually start worrying and taking preventive measures after deaths start to be reported.”


Link
Quoting 164. FrostyNaples:



Lol, I didn't mean anything, again, just putting two graphics out there, one last year, one year to date.

I said nothing else, meant nothing else.

Don't you like pictures?
I love pictures. It's just a little strange to see one that's an entire season and the other with one month gone and call it a contrast between the two years.
Quoting 170. Cat5WPB:



Hmmm.. must have missed that. There is still a page, but it doesn't load the rooms. Wonder why they did away with it. Had a lot of good times in there!
I remember your good times but hey that was then this is now
Wonder why they did away with it. Had a lot of good times in there!


The terms of service changed
Poor, poor, Pakistan -

An official from the Ministry of Climate Change said that earlier, environment was not a priority for the government, because of which the relevant departments lack a proper strategy to tackle any of the extreme weather events emerging across the country.

“Our weather forecast is mostly based on general perceptions and on the weather predictions of our neighbouring countries.”


Link
Quoting 170. Cat5WPB:



Hmmm.. must have missed that. There is still a page, but it doesn't load the rooms. Wonder why they did away with it. Had a lot of good times in there!


Quoting 175. HadesGodWyvern:



The terms of service changed
Apparently the change was less service...
Finally got a real severe thunderstorm with the winds, it's been a long time. I'd say 60-65 mph: at one point it was almost sustained. Incredible storm.
Twice a year, my housemates and the kids go to Circus Circus Reno for birthday(s.)
Every time. No really. Every freaking time.  A thunderstorm or windstorm hits while they're gone.

They left today. And, of course...

This pattern will also continue to allow moisture to filter
northward along the periphery of the upper ridge. Chances for
afternoon thunderstorms will continue this week as a result with the
best potential existing through the Sierra. The more favored region
with the better combination of instability and moisture will extend
across Mono into Alpine County this afternoon. Storms will track
northward with steering layer flow near 20 kts. Gusty outflow winds
are a still concern with these storms today as model soundings show
some considerable dry subcloud layers. There is a bit of a dcape
gradient with about 800-1000 j/kg existing south of Highway 50 and
1000-1200 j/kg north of Highway 50. As such, would expect outflow
gusts more in the 30-40 miles per hour south of Highway 50 and up to 40-50 miles per hour
northward based on yesterday's trends.

Quoting 169. nonblanche:



Maybe the answer then is to post photos of Sharpie markers.


That Extreme was the best. Didn't even fade under water.
Sure did move right over us this time

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 330 PM CDT
for southeastern Okaloosa County...

at 254 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging
winds over 60 mph was located over Niceville... moving east at 30 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Severe thunderstorms often produce frequent cloud to ground
lightning. Please take cover until the storm passes.

To report severe weather... call (800) 284-9059.


Lat... Lon 3045 8658 3067 8645 3066 8639 3045 8639
3045 8642 3039 8640 3043 8643 3040 8643
3041 8644 3046 8642 3050 8645 3051 8643
3051 8645 3048 8647 3052 8650 3047 8648
3044 8655
time... Mot... loc 1954z 286deg 28kt 3054 8644
Quoting 179. sar2401:

Apparently the change was less service...
no the chat was a different entity operated by someone other than weather underground
Quoting 158. FrancisCrick:



Not very professional, but extremely moderator like.


True. Several years back I was booted for making comments that I thought were innocuous and certainly not meant to be malicious. After several days of remaining booted i had to get back on under a different moniker. Not always are comments interpreted as intended. Be very careful that noone can be offended. (probably good in the rest of life as well)
Quoting 183. sar2401:

That Extreme was the best. Didn't even fade under water.
you can even get glow in the dark ones now for easy spotting
Quoting 180. opal92nwf:

Finally got a real severe thunderstorm with the winds, it's been a long time. I'd say 60-65 mph: at one point it was almost sustained. Incredible storm.
Lots of storms, some severe, to the south, west, and east. Nothing at all here. As soon as anything gets close, it dissipates, only to reform again once it crosses Lake Eufaula. I'm hoping to at least get a shower out of the remains.
Quoting 187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you can even get glow in the dark ones now for easy spotting


Dad always used to use Marks-A-Lot on items in the boat. Nothing washed it off.
AN awful lot of wind blew thru the Pensacola area around 2:15PM gusts to 40-45 at least for about 5 mins.
Quoting 185. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no the chat was a different entity operated by someone other than weather underground
So, as long as it was operated by "someone" else, but WU told "someone" else their services were no longer needed, it wasn't less service to actual customers here?
well darnit, I tried to hit the hide comment and flagged instead. I guess I'll get another of those abuse of flagging bans. Oh my...
Apparently the change was less service...



no the chat was a different entity operated by someone other than weather underground


The chat was own and operated by 123Flash
194. csmda
Quoting 180. opal92nwf:

Finally got a real severe thunderstorm with the winds, it's been a long time. I'd say 60-65 mph: at one point it was almost sustained. Incredible storm.


As usual, pretty much a non event here in Destin. Once it hits that water surrounding us it almost disappears.
Quoting 192. Pipejazz:

well darnit, I tried to hit the hide comment and flagged instead. I guess I'll get another of those abuse of flagging bans. Oh my...


Naughty Mouse. Almost as bad as digital dyslexia.
Heard a report from a Bud at work (Tally) that a tree came down on someones house here in Tally this afternoon; looking at the SPC reports, we had some very gusty winds in this pocket of the FL Big Bend- Southern AL & GA.
today Filtered Reports Graphic
Quoting 194. csmda:



As usual, pretty much a non event here in Destin. Once it hits that water surrounding us it almost disappears.

Judging from the radar though, looks like you probably got some good rain. I know it's been extremely dry there in the past few months.
Quoting 194. csmda:



As usual, pretty much a non event here in Destin. Once it hits that water surrounding us it almost disappears.


Everything vanished in Mobile - poof. I have noticed that a lot of times when storms head this way from Miss. they go around or over Mobile and come down in Baldwin county or Pensacola. I can't figure out the mechanism for that but it sure is curious.
Quoting 173. sar2401:

I love pictures. It's just a little strange to see one that's an entire season and the other with one month gone and call it a contrast between the two years.


As we were about to sit down for lunch, to discuss climate change..

It's certainly HOT down in FL these days...


View on YouTube
201. csmda
Quoting 198. opal92nwf:


Judging from the radar though, looks like you probably got some good rain. I know it's been extremely dry there in the past few months.
Quoting 199. JustDucky251:



Everything vanished in Mobile - poof. I have noticed that a lot of times when storms head this way from Miss. they go around or over Mobile and come down in Baldwin county or Pensacola. I can't figure out the mechanism for that but it sure is curious.


It has been very dry and hot here.

Ducky, that happens a lot here. They call it the "Destin Dome".
Quoting 171. WalkingInTheSun:



How odd, but then again, this site IS sort of pseudo-political at times, and the PC-Police are always watching, especially in matters related to weather. I recently have been watching a documentary about the Dust Bowl. Very interesting, and as horrendously bad as the weather got back then...the automobile simply had not been around long enough nor in large enough numbers to cause all that bad weather - drought, winds, etc. It evidently was not man-made climate change.
Man-made climate change was already underway in the '30s.


However, if it had by some misfortune of time happened in these days, you can bet it would have been blamed on man-made style climate change, right?
Not by climate scientists, who would say such events are more likely in a climate changed by global warming.
Quoting 186. JustDucky251:



True. Several years back I was booted for making comments that I thought were innocuous and certainly not meant to be malicious. After several days of remaining booted i had to get back on under a different moniker. Not always are comments interpreted as intended. Be very careful that noone can be offended. (probably good in the rest of life as well)
I'm much too old to worry about who might be offended by anything I post. If that was the most important thing in life, I'd just never post anything. Someone's probably offended by this post. :-)
Quoting 191. sar2401:

So, as long as it was operated by "someone" else, but WU told "someone" else their services were no longer needed, it wasn't less service to actual customers here?
there program was no longer compatible with the wu operating system and I guess they 123 flash did not want to make the program compatible

either way its gone done
Keep, how long are you going to wait on this one?
Quoting 200. FrostyNaples:



As we were about to sit down for lunch, to discuss climate change..

It's certainly HOT down in FL these days...


View on YouTube
Hah!

"Don't come a-knockin' when the water lilly's rockin' !"

Quoting 206. AdamReith:

Hah!

"Don't come a-knockin' when the water lilly's rockin' !"




FYI - although the 'image' may represent mating, the leaf literally rocking, only so because the big fella is chowing down on it.. They are currently not playing leap frog :-p
someone take away it's thesaursas PLEASE

sar- it's behaving. Can't do anything as long as it's behaving. Even if it IS
strangling the life out of the above-mentioned thesauras.
Quoting 133. opal92nwf:


I got poured on with some localized cells between 11 and 12 earlier. Last good chance of rain??


Thought Forecast was saying no good chances of rain for next week or so but looks like we get pretty good chances of rain Wednesday night through Friday, then it clears out for the weekend and next week.
It's a Storm'n in the Gulf

Quoting 210. RitaEvac:

It's a Storm'n in the Gulf




Send it to the FL Panhandle please!
Quoting 211. 69Viking:



Send it to the FL Panhandle please!


Sorry, we're trying to catch up for lost rainfall since 2009
Quoting 202. AdamReith:

Man-made climate change was already underway in the '30s.


However, if it had by some misfortune of time happened in these days, you can bet it would have been blamed on man-made style climate change, right?
Not by climate scientists, who would say such events are more likely in a climate changed by global warming.
Steam engines. I wonder how many cars it takes to produce the carbon load of one steam engine? There were about 50,000 of them in the US in 1930. Probably a lot.



This is a picture of one of the steel mills in Birmingham Al in 1923. These kind of things created a little pollution.



Imagine the trouble we'd be in if we were still using steam locomotives and factories still belched all the smoke from burning coal.
Quoting 203. sar2401:

I'm much too old to worry about who might be offended by anything I post. If that was the most important thing in life, I'd just never post anything. Someone's probably offended by this post. :-)


That's not an offensive post.

This is an offensive post.

215. Ed22
Good afternoon, good evening and good night everyone, firstly I want to say that Tropical Storm Bill was a special structural 60mph Cyclone for the past three weeks ago spending three days inland as a Tropical Cyclone. Now current wind-shear analysis shows that Upper Level Winds (U.L.W) is trending down now its currently at 30 to 60 knots over the Eastern and Central Caribbean coming from 40 to 80 knots and weakening further in the wake of a Tropical Wave over that area right now. If current trend continues into weekend into next week we could have something to "MONITOR" ....
Quoting 213. sar2401:

Steam engines. I wonder how many cars it takes to produce the carbon load of one steam engine? There were about 50,000 of them in the US in 1930. Probably a lot.



This is a picture of one of the steel mills in Birmingham Al in 1923. These kind of things created a little pollution.



Imagine the trouble we'd be in if we were still using steam locomotives and factories still belched all the smoke from burning coal.


If the OP was watching a special on the dust bowl, and completely missed what made it worse than simply a drought, I think the OP wasn't actually paying attention.

Great Plains farmers were applying farming methods that worked just fine east of the Appalachians, enhanced with the latest in large scale plowing and combine technology, and suffered the consequences when the rain stopped. Back east, they were told, if the soil on top is dry, you plow deeper, pull up the moisture trapped down in the soil, dry stuff is turned under to pick up more of the moisture stored in the layers below.

In the Plains, you do that, all you're doing is drying out an ever deeper layer of soil. Then the winds pick up.

Even out here, where the primary crop is alfalfa, which means you plow maybe once every few years, the winds pick up and bring the dust along. I've had little actual drifts - dunes of dust on my desk. I go through a space heater once a year or so from the bearings getting chewed up by the late winter/early spring dust winds.

The Dust Bowl would not have happened had it not been for the farming practices in the Great Plains.
Quoting 212. RitaEvac:



Sorry, we're trying to catch up for lost rainfall since 2009


That is of course when you're done with it LOL!
Quoting 213. sar2401:

Imagine the trouble we'd be in if we were still using steam locomotives and factories still belched all the smoke from burning coal.


You mean with "we" obviously the USA, because fossil fuel consumption on a global scale took off after 1950:


Source

Yes the USA has a unique profile in fossil fuel consumption, but this is a global problem now.
Thunder's rattling the windows

Quoting 219. ChrisHamburg:



You mean with "we" obviously the USA, because fossil fuel consumption on a global scale took of after 1950:


Source

Yes the USA has a unique profile in fossil fuel consumption, but this is a global problem now.
The US consumed well over half of the world's carbon, primarily coal, before WWII. The UK and the colonies probably accounted for most of the rest, with the other countries of the world being an infinitesimal part of the total. The Marshall Plan changed all that. We not only got Europe and Asia back on their feet, we transformed them into the biggest manufacturing (and consuming) centers ever seen in history. With that transformation we have also seen the biggest carbon production and consumption in history. Food produced in the US and given freely to the malnourished and starving of the world allowed countries like China and India to embark on the biggest population explosions in history. Looking back at 1946 with what we know now, I wonder what we'd do differently?
Chan-hom 09W


I have made a blog entry finally after having some time on my hands.Please check it out and T.I.A
Link
ABPW10 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/301500ZJUN2015-010600ZJUL2015//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301351ZJUN2015//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301352ZJUN2015//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 301200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (CHAN-HOM) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 160.3E MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 301500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
148.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM WEST
OF FANANU. RECENT ANIMATED EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED
SIGNATURE WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 301201Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT CORE WINDS
WITH STRONGER 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS WITH FAIR DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7N
161.7E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 301200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (TWENTYFIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 5.3S 160.0E MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 301500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
160.4E, IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA.
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED THE BULLETIN TO REFLECT
WARNING STATUS FOR 09W AND 25P.//
NNNN

welp..a lot of missing posts..and for once I wasn't a reason for them..

You all have a good rest of the evening. I'm heading to the beach after a stressful day at work to watch the sun set..:)

There surely is a remarkable activity in the W pac and we are still way ahead of the 1997 record season for the basin as we already had 3 cat 5 storms (the third cat 5 developed in the second half of July that year). A season that is going to break lots of records in the northern pacific is under way while you are obsessed with the Atlantic. Also remember: Be kind to the others and don t bully the others, it s not nice...speaking of which...what are you doing Chan-hom, what has 94 ever done to you? Reminds me of Loco roco - mojo, mojo.

.
Big Thunderstorm here in N. County San Diego, I've lived here for 5 years and I've only heard thunder a few times. Crazy, It never ever ever rains here in June or really in the Summer months. Love it.
Quoting 221. LAbonbon:

Thunder's rattling the windows




Hey Bonnie. Been rattling the windows here all day. Called it "Real Thunder" earlier. :) Yesterday we didn't get a drop. The day before, the ONLY storm in Texas set up over my house, just my house (ok, well practically) Lol. Looked so lonely on radar. Put down almost 2 inches.
Quoting 227. ncstorm:

welp..a lot of missing posts..and for once I wasn't a reason for them..

You all have a good rest of the evening. I'm heading to the beach after a stressful day at work to watch the sun set..:)


Why so many missing? Seems strange for a forum.
Quoting 171. WalkingInTheSun:



How odd, but then again, this site IS sort of pseudo-political at times, and the PC-Police are always watching, especially in matters related to weather. I recently have been watching a documentary about the Dust Bowl. Very interesting, and as horrendously bad as the weather got back then...the automobile simply had not been around long enough nor in large enough numbers to cause all that bad weather - drought, winds, etc. It evidently was not man-made climate change. However, if it had by some misfortune of time happened in these days, you can bet it would have been blamed on man-made style climate change, right?
Not by scientists, thats for sure!

You should stop getting your information about science-related subjects from non-scientists - and especially don't listen to the lies promulgated by the from the AGW/CC denialist industry.

Whenever you hear the line that something was "caused by global warming" you can be sure those words are not coming from the climate science community, but rather from someone or a group that is misinformed, lying - or simply doesn't understand the nuanced and complex concept of attribution science.
234. vis0

Quoting 120. sar2401:

Yes, I wasted $30 on a thunder sweater. Doesn't work for Radar Dog. Of course, nothing has worked for Radar Dog. :-)
Hope the wx isn't going to severe.(i began to type this BEFORE severe..on Monday or was it Tuesday...we're still in may right?? ; - P)

How 'bout BEASTS or noise canceling headphones with blu-tooth (canine of course) for dawgs (shouldn't mention myself)  i mean dogs.  Add a micro disc player (i'm old still saying DISC® lets also think chip) and you find which micro disc/chip tune calms the savage beast during thunderstorms by pre playing thunder storm sounds (or rattle sheet metal). Test against the pho or real thunder, the downloaded temporary micro disc (temporary disc self erases after 3-5 uses (except in Wash. & Ca. 2 uses) 
If that sound works you buy the non self erasing disk.

Sounds can include other dog barks as their siblings or parents barks before being separated..stop crying washi1...   ...PATRAP !, c'mon these things happen heck i was separated from my parents 56 times in large Dept. stores, but every time the police found my parents ...even though it took them another 24 hours to convince my parents i was their child, though why did the police apologize every time they gave me back, hmmm.     Also a more technical sound,  the reverse of thunder pressure sound to equalize the final "felt" pressure sound to zero within their ears,  or to an accepted low pressure level (in theory) as to the real thunder.    Problem is you need some sound pickup device to trigger the reverse pressure sound as the real thunder happens, remote control not good as one is not home during every storm.    Weird sounds  might work are dogs in heat, unzipping of Gucci body bags (i said Gucci they are pink , so not as morbid) (mods if ya delete this at least copy the idea(s))
Remember one of my now deleted clues, there are several types of ways complex planet animals (creatures) are connected to that planet.  "Least complex" as flowers, plants are directly connected and why i state they have "feelings" transmitted plant to plant via earth energy fields so if one damages the plant you hurt the planet and vice versa. "Less complex" are like cows, dogs, monkeys they are somewhat independent but since lightning and thunder are severe pressures onto mother earth these animals feel that "severe pressure" via internal instincts. "most complex" humans (for now) having separated (our independent conscience) we don't give a hoot, though just like any species there are varieties of reactions some humans might react like pups, nothing to be concerned 'bout as its an individual trait and makes each person special, well except for yoboi...i kid cause yoboi's my twin (Spanish novela/soap opera dramatic music plays in background...we we're separated during a commericial break)

oh before i forget here this months invention give-a-way:: (cue the imnvention give-a-way music dakster, no that's not the music that's just passing  g♫s.


i might have posted this last FALL? and i think this idea/product should exists already but maybe not in this thicker mesh style or for the reasons i mention.

You've seen those dog booties used to protect pups paws from the elements, snow, cold salt etc.

Great except dogs need to have their 6th sense flow come in direct line contact with earth otherwise they feel inadequate (a few dogs whispered it to me...  {; - P  ...hope ya like my toupee)

Direct line flow contact?
Present day booties i've seen are of a solid material or tight stitch so the junk in the street doesn't come in contact with paws. If they are made of solid plastic or rubber the energy has to flow up their paws (reverse of normal) then out the top of the booties and usually that energy becomes trapped in being that the booties are too high but that height/length is need  so the booties are not kicked, i mean slide off as some dogs (many cats) in having this energy return throws of certain natural signals to their brain and they then look like some of our uncles...no not unshaven but drunk.  i state the edge the leather area of the paws has the ability to sense energies (don't ask, i read it on me through that device i speak of not to worry no humans were injured). Study how human fingernails have an input/output that interacts with ones aura its how we use the Magmasphere via institution and why the smallest and less complex creatures turn towards the poles during "natural" needs.

Now why not have booties that are of a mesh design and the mesh of a non slippery rubber mini tube like design (let me catch my breath) and their thickness dependent on the dogs weight. A bigger dogs weight would squish to close to the ground a little dogs bootie mesh, therefore have the bigger dogs paws pick up street stuff. Therefore heavier dogs need a thicker mini tube like designs.

With a rubber micro-mesh dogs energies flow through yet are high enough off the ground that salt, chemicals do not reach the dogs paws and the rubber if of a certain type does not allow snow to freeze in between the openings, and ya can wah 'em in the dishwasher oh wait no.   A bonus is why i sent the idea in the early 2000 null years to my fav human i've never met T . Humphrey. Why send it to her?  Tracy filed a report for FOX5 NYC on a sad case of a dog being shocked to death while it was walked over a NYC manhole or metal plate cover and these types of rubber meshes might insulate  better than cloth booties as to receiving any metal cover shocks. Plus i like to share money making ideas with people i think are thoughtful.  Never heard from her as to my idea (whats new, i'm surprised you WxU guys/gals reply to me...is there a bkgnd bet of who dares the most to talk to vis0???)

i'm sure other members/readers can find fault in these ideas BUT THEY ARE IDEAS so if you can make them better, GO FOR IT.

File the idea via  the poor mans patent, by mailing the idea to to yourself (DON'T OPEN IT when you recieve it take pictures of it being sealed and add a number to the envelope so you know what idea is in which envelope, ya don't want my Victoria's Secret (wow Grothar can run, look how fast he came to the screen when his auto-read program read "Vicky Shhh") multi sized via silk string & loops dress (can go from maternity to size 2) mixed up with the reversed Chapps for the saettleites quasi-semi-home town #43 "Tour de Leather" clothing...SIT DOWN eazzzily British Minister of I.D. not taking 'bout you Mr. Shapps) , BUT MAIL the envelope with each idea personally via the post office to make sure the date stamp is clear / legible.   Wait ~12-14 days so once shared there is no discrepancy between to similar dates. Then take the idea to local veterinarians (don't take 'bout the "energies"  or the vets will say something like "don't let the door hit yer dog's ascot on the way out." Just mention the rubber micro-mesh design and how the soft rubber mesh should be thicker for heavier dogs. The openings are tiny (rule of thumb thicker than a strand of their hair/fur,. ~ 1/64 of an inch on average???...small but they at least are openings.


it did involve some weather...thunder lightning.
ON THE SERIOUS SIDE hope all are okay after the severe weather went through several areas of the world.
BACK to observing nature and stay tuned to NOAA RADIO and/or local radio emergency frequencies.
Quoting 230. PaulSanD:

Big Thunderstorm here in N. County San Diego, I've lived here for 5 years and I've only heard thunder a few times. Crazy, It never ever ever rains here in June or really in the Summer months. Love it.
climate chaos is here
Quoting 231. AtHomeInTX:



Hey Bonnie. Been rattling the windows here all day. Called it "Real Thunder" earlier. :) Yesterday we didn't get a drop. The day before, the ONLY storm in Texas set up over my house, just my house (ok, well practically) Lol. Looked so lonely on radar. Put down almost 2 inches.

Oh, did I say windows? I should have said house. That was just one or two massive booms, though. It's down to a gentle rain now, thunder's gone too. The stuff just to my west seems to be headed SE, but there's still more over your way. But according to the short-range surface/forecast maps, the rain over your way won't be headed here. Hmmm...we shall see.

The other day we had a downpour, seemingly out of nowhere, that I could barely find the source for on radar. Thing was tiny.
Sar2401

I was looking for your post 213 and there it was ...... gone.
Quoting 236. LAbonbon:


Oh, did I say windows? I should have said house. That was just one or two massive booms, though. It's down to a gentle rain now, thunder's gone too. The stuff just to my west seems to be headed SE, but there's still more over your way. But according to the short-range surface/forecast maps, the rain over your way won't be headed here. Hmmm...we shall see.

The other day we had a downpour, seemingly out of nowhere, that I could barely find the source for on radar. Thing was tiny.


Lol. Yeah, I had to zoom in really, really close to see the storm on radar. I could just feel the newly mowed grass growing up right behind it. :)

I heard rain drops, let me go check...
Quoting 230. PaulSanD:

Big Thunderstorm here in N. County San Diego, I've lived here for 5 years and I've only heard thunder a few times. Crazy, It never ever ever rains here in June or really in the Summer months. Love it.


Quoting 239. PedleyCA:

I heard rain drops, let me go check...


Quoting 237. JustDucky251:

Sar2401

I was looking for your post 213 and there it was ...... gone.

Assumed he was banned, as all his comments were gone. He's not alone in that today though...

Earlier I was going to reply to hydrus, and the post was *poof*. Don't know if just the post got removed, or if he got a ban too :(

And it appears the thunder's back. I think we're in for some more rain.

Quoting 242. LAbonbon:


Assumed he was banned, as all his comments were gone. He's not alone in that today though...

Earlier I was going to reply to hydrus, and the post was *poof*. Don't know if just the post got removed, or if he got a ban too :(

And it appears the thunder's back. I think we're in for some more rain.




That's what i figured. Sar is in my geographical area, so the observations are particularly useful.
Quoting 209. 69Viking:



Thought Forecast was saying no good chances of rain for next week or so but looks like we get pretty good chances of rain Wednesday night through Friday, then it clears out for the weekend and next week.

Did you get that big storm??
Well, since it appears I will not get any rain between now and midnight, my June will end with a measly 5.34" of rain. About half of this 5.34" fell in one day. After 11.27" in May, the summer thunderstorms have forgotten my location. Year-to-date is now 28.89" for my location. July is usually my wettest month, so there's hope yet.
So I have about half of 1 % of the internet working at the moment and I'm not in Greece.
What I noted as a passing thought and observation is that the storm below the equator is interacting with the storm above the equator in such a way that there are strong winds crossing the equator.
Doubtless many have already noted the same thing.
I have no fast Internet to post the wind maps.

In reality what I also wanted to say id "Happy Birthday," again to senor Grother who as in company with me chose the middle day of the year to commence his Incarnation.
I'm A 65 plus pension now as well of course.

I don't hold out much glory for this "El Nino," as its too soon, or too late and the Alaska anomaly is more on the cards for serious direction changing.
Then again, I'm open to criticism as I am no expert in these things.
NADA, bunch of Thunder, nothing of significance just yet. it is 88.6F, high was 96.5F and low was 69.5F.


97W model forecast to affect Marianas islands too.

dang that 915 hPa Chan-bom intensity. =/
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago
% of days where westerly wind burst threshold exceeded in the Central Pac higher this year in any year back to 1979.

Link
Happy Birthday to PlazaRed and The Grothar (Jul 01)
This is a better look from the San Diego Radar and I think I got robbed...... not a drop that I can see....lol
251. JRRP

finally in the atlantic
Quoting 250. PedleyCA:

Happy Birthday to PlazaRed and The Grothar (Jul 01)
This is a better look from the San Diego Radar and I think I got robbed...... not a drop that I can see....lol


I understand that Grothar's cake has to be delivered with fire department support.
Leap Second being added at the end of this hour.
Quoting 250. PedleyCA:

Happy Birthday to PlazaRed and The Grothar (Jul 01)
This is a better look from the San Diego Radar and I think I got robbed...... not a drop that I can see....lol

I think it's TLawson's birthday tomorrow as well.
Quoting 253. Climate175:

Leap Second being added at the end of this hour.


Age rumbles on faster and faster. Social Security is approaching fast.
Quoting 249. TimSoCal:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago
% of days where westerly wind burst threshold exceeded in the Central Pac higher this year in any year back to 1979.

Link
I don't understand that graph.
Quoting 250. PedleyCA:

Happy Birthday to PlazaRed and The Grothar (Jul 01)
This is a better look from the San Diego Radar and I think I got robbed...... not a drop that I can see....lol
Ped!
Are not the clouds and deluges supposed to be heading towards the coast and the inland mountains, in order to give you life sustaining rains?
Man, your situation look a bit grim and we wish we could send you some rain.
Quoting 255. JustDucky251:



Age rumbles on faster and faster. Social Security is approaching fast.
Ain't that the truth.
Quoting 258. Climate175:

Ain't that the truth.


What software did you use for that? I might be able to use it in one of the Science Center's exhibits.
260. beell
Still a bit of Canadian smoke sweeping down over the Midwest into the mid-Mississippi Valley today from the ongoing wildfires..




Air Quality Index (AQI)-6PM CDT 06/30



Link


Springfield, MO-Tuesday Morning
Image Credit: Thomas Leonard

end of run for the 18Z GFS has something Texas might stay alert for...................
Seems I picked a good day to service and run the Genny and sort the old MRE's for newer.



Re-stocked the Fresca, added a month of VA meds ..to go in the bug out bag.


Checked the dogs Vacc and Rabies, ...check'

Rotated out some older First Aid Kits for new, check'

Put a deposit down for a reserved 16ft Budget truck in case History decides to be a, well, you know.




Quoting 260. beell:

Still a bit of Canadian smoke sweeping down over the Midwest into the mid-Mississippi Valley today from the ongoing wildfires..




Air Quality Index (AQI)-6PM CDT 06/30
Link

http://i243.photobucket.com/albums/ff316/b00ble55 /aqulegend.png


Springfield, MO-Tuesday Morning
Image Credit: Thomas Leonard




Indeed beell as I was watching NASA TV on the ISS Live feed and the crew was remarking on that very scene from Orbit.
Farming practices most know made the dust bowl as bad as it was. The science suggests Pacific SST's were well below average at this time while the Atlantic was well above average. This weakened the jet stream and southern moisture stopped flowing into the plains. Happy Bday Gro and PlazaRed! Back to back hottest years on record, record monthly rainfall for the US, record snows for the NE, strongest typhoon on record, Alaska burning and temps off the charts, historical heat waves, historical water supplies vanishing at a lightening pace, SST's worldwide at all time highs, sea level rises in places such as the Philippines that are rapidly outpacing the rest of the world, and the list goes on and on and on. India already damming up the Indus river due to lack of electricity. Indus river provides almost the entirety of the water that supplies Pakistan. Pakistan has a nuclear first strike policy if that ever stops flowing to them, historical drought lead to the Syrian conflict; all of these are but the birthing pangs that the Pentagon refers to when they talk about climate change being a huge player in wars and unrest in the coming decades. More refugees now than at the height of WWII worldwide, couple that with the unstainable debt of the West, and the affects of AGW now and in the coming decades, we stand at nothing less than the abyss. The one thing that is unstoppable though is hope and the insurmountable human will. WWII proved it, we must come together like that again, nothing less will do.
Did anyone else get a GIZMO Survey Banner prompt too here today?
Quoting 256. Gearsts:

I don't understand that graph.

The graph marks the percentage of time in any given year (to date) the threshold of a westerly wind burst (3 m/s) has been surpassed across the equatorial central Pacific. Note that 60% of the time from January 1 to now, 2015 has seen winds of 3 m/s along the equatorial central Pacific.
Quoting 267. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The graph marks the percentage of time in any given year (to date) the threshold of a westerly wind burst (3 m/s) has been surpassed across the equatorial central Pacific. Note that 60% of the time from January 1 to now, 2015 has seen winds of 3 m/s along the equatorial central Pacific.
Thanks!
Quoting 266. Patrap:

Did anyone else get a GIZMO Survey Banner prompt too here today?

Got one of those this morning...
Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 7h7 hours ago
@EricBlake12 @hombredeltiempo Since 1960 only one tropical cyclone has formed in July and one in August in the SW Pacific.
Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach 6h6 hours ago
Trop Atl (10-20N, 60-20W) SLPs were higher from June 25-27, 2015 than on any day in June since 1979.
Quoting 266. Patrap:

Did anyone else get a GIZMO Survey Banner prompt too here today?


Yup, got one here too. Clicked "Android user" and got back, "here ya go Apple user!"

-_-
This USAvGER game has me on the edge of my seat. Wow.
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This USAvGER game has me on the edge of my seat. Wow.

Now 2-0....
It's over! The US Team won. Now I need to figure out how to get tickets and get my behind to Vancouver on Sunday...

Edit: The cheapest I could find start at $250/seat and it involves more stairs than my legs will climb.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
9:00 AM JST July 1 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (996 hPa) located at 10.4N 157.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.9N 152.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 11.9N 148.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 13.0N 145.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
I'm still in love with my new Tropicswatch organization. I, at 14 yrs old, have been promoted to an administrator, meaning i basically post the weather models on tropical weather onto the Facebook page. The organization is associated with www.stormpulse.com. Thanks to you all for all of the basic weather info you have shared with me.
ITCZ looks pretty healthy this evening.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAQUEL, CATEGORY ONE (01U)
10:38 AM EST July 1 2015
=================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Raquel, Category One (997 hPa) located at 6.3S 159.4E or 355 km north of Honiara, Solomon Islands has 10 minute sustained wind of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 6.9S 159.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 7.4S 158.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 8.0S 159.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 8.5S 159.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Raquel was named during the early hours of this morning following a renewed burst of convection, which microwave imagery depicted as having sufficient curvature beneath the cold overcast shield.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern with the estimated low level center situated approximately 0.3 of a degree into the deep convection, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were 3.5 and 3.0 respectively. The FT was based on PAT as the DT was not clear cut.

On the latest visible satellite imagery, tropical cyclone Raquel appears to be under the influence of some easterly vertical wind shear. The CIMMS vertical wind shear product also supports this with 20-30 knots of easterly wind shear evident at 1800 UTC on June 30th. The presence of this vertical wind shear should limit development in the short term, however an upper trough is expected to move eastwards across the Coral Sea today, which could lead to a period where the vertical wind shear reduces and opens up a window for intensification to category 2 strength on Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast moving into Friday with land affects and vertical wind shear being the main factors that could inhibit development.

Tropical cyclone Raquel should continue moving towards the south southwest today and into Thursday under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the east of the Solomon Islands. The system should become slow moving by Friday as this steering influence breaks down with the approach of the mid-level trough moving eastwards across the Coral Sea.
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR
WEST


I suspect we are about to witness a rapid rise across these ENSO regions over the coming 4 to 6 weeks. From what I can see it appears we are going to surpass 1997 record breaking El-Nino or come very close.

WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy Jun 29

1997 is the only year to best match the upcoming AEI jump to near +3 standard deviations in 2 wks for August 2015.
With Nino 4 expected to get as warm as models show there really is a chance Nino 3.4 could reach 3C come either November or December. If that were to happen it would shatter 1997's 2.35C event.

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12

The craziest thing about the latest CFS is its Nino 4 forecast of ~2.0. Record warmest value is only 1.3C! #ElNino
Hi everyone!

It's a balmy 80, feeling like 85, overcast kind of evening on the island tonight. The thunder rolled, the lightening flashed and it poured....for a grand total of four minutes a while ago. Felt good but it was just a teaser. We need a lot more than that to give us the break these islands need right now. The only ones enjoying this drought are the water trucks with the desalinated water running the island. Money in their pockets, out of ours!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy

(PS Happy early birthday to Gro, Plaza and a high five to Canada's birthday at 148 years young also! :-)
My mother called me today, asking why did the Sun look strange. She took a picture from the Adventure Science Center where she works at the world-famous planetarium. When she got home, she didn't believe my answer until I showed her the GOES imagery for the US.

 photo Smoke and Sun_zpspn88amrq.jpg

Image Credit: Astro's Mom Date: June 30, 2015. Smoke turns the Sun red after drifting hundreds of miles from Canada where wildfires are currently burning.
Quoting 282. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Hi everyone!

It's a balmy 80, feeling like 85, overcast kind of evening on the island tonight. The thunder rolled, the lightening flashed and it poured....for a grand total of four minutes a while ago. Felt good but it was just a teaser. We need a lot more than that to give us the break these islands need right now. The only ones enjoying this drought are the water trucks with the desalinated water running the island. Money in their pockets, out of ours!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy

(PS Happy early birthday to Gro, Plaza and a high five to Canada's birthday at 148 years young also! :-)


ya we are doing the christmas dinner in july thing here for Canada day just put a turkey in the oven to roast all night for a nice noon dinner tomorrow with all the fixings for the mid week day off

it was the misses idea so I said sure why not picked up fresh turkey today there were 6 of them in the cooler we took one just put it in the oven now maybe 10 mins ago
Quoting 283. Astrometeor:

My mother called me today, asking why did the Sun look strange. She took a picture from the Adventure Science Center where she works at the world-famous planetarium. When she got home, she didn't believe my answer until I showed her the GOES imagery for the US.

 photo Smoke and Sun_zpspn88amrq.jpg

Image Credit: Astro's Mom Date: June 30, 2015. Smoke turns the Sun red after drifting hundreds of miles from Canada where wildfires are currently burning.
they are sayin it may be many days of drifting smoke yet too come
Special air quality statement in effect for:
•City of Regina

Widespread smoke across all of Saskatchewan.

A large area of smoke from forest fires over Northern Saskatchewan and Northwest Territories continues to blanket much of Saskatchewan. Visibilities have been reduced to less than 2 km in many areas especially in Central and Northern Saskatchewan. Air quality is poor in many areas due to the smoke. Smoke near the ground may cause potentially high health risk conditions. The smoke is expected to persist over the next couple of days as winds will remain from the northwest and little to no precipitation is expected to flush out the smoke and haze. Conditions may be somewhat better on Wednesday afternoon as winds shift slightly more to the west.
287. vis0

CREDIT:: Original images via NHC
Carried over from the previous blog:

Quoting 297. OviedoWatcher:

Has anyone notice that on the Wunderground 10 weather day forecasts, the daily summary max temperature does not match the max temperature on the hour by hour data? I was looking at the weekend forecast for Charlotte, NC and noticed that it is fairly consistent that the summary max temperature is 2F higher than the hourly max over the next 10 days. I initially thought that the hourly forecast was missing the peak which was between 2 data points, but that isn't it. There was one day with a 5 hrs in which the temp went 84, 85, 85, 85, 84, but the daily max was 87, which doesn't look right. Then I thought they must be using the 'feels like' max but not saying so, but on that day the 'feels like' max was 89. Any thoughts to break up the discussions on El Ni~nos and AGW?

Oh, and yes I know my username suggests I live in Oviedo, FL, but I moved and didn't get a new one.

I have noticed this before. I checked my location - each day is off by 2 degrees as well. But maybe there's an assumed peak between hours? I can't think of anything else that makes sense. For me the 'feels like' temps are way higher than the 2 degree difference between the daily/hourly forecast.

I'm debating if I should draft a post describing a major issue I've encountered with the new 6-hour precip notification. (When I click on the notice it's for a different location-nothing I do changes it.)
Quoting 274. Seattleite:

It's over! The US Team won. Now I need to figure out how to get tickets and get my behind to Vancouver on Sunday...

Edit: The cheapest I could find start at $250/seat and it involves more stairs than my legs will climb.

I just took a quick look - same results. However, they said sometimes tickets open up closer to the date. Any chance you could request Accessible Seating? If so, it might get you in a queue if any are freed up.
Quoting 283. Astrometeor:

My mother called me today, asking why did the Sun look strange. She took a picture from the Adventure Science Center where she works at the world-famous planetarium. When she got home, she didn't believe my answer until I showed her the GOES imagery for the US.

 photo Smoke and Sun_zpspn88amrq.jpg

Image Credit: Astro's Mom Date: June 30, 2015. Smoke turns the Sun red after drifting hundreds of miles from Canada where wildfires are currently burning.

EOSDIS Worldview - Canadian Fires and Smoke
Happy Birthday, Grothar!
No one knows how old you really are since your birth certificate was written on the only element around at the time, Hydrogen. We know that your birth certificate is out there, somewhere, either scattered throughout the Universe or as part of some heavier elements by now. We will keep looking for it. It has to be a special isotope of Hydrogen.

Happy Birthday, twason48!

Happy Birthday, plazared!

And a special Happy Birthday!, to my oldest daughter, Dinnie (Dee Nee). She is 44 years old today! This kind of cramps my style since I can no longer claim to be 39.
Quoting 283. Astrometeor:

My mother called me today, asking why did the Sun look strange. She took a picture from the Adventure Science Center where she works at the world-famous planetarium. When she got home, she didn't believe my answer until I showed her the GOES imagery for the US.

 photo Smoke and Sun_zpspn88amrq.jpg

Image Credit: Astro's Mom Date: June 30, 2015. Smoke turns the Sun red after drifting hundreds of miles from Canada where wildfires are currently burning.

I knew that the sunlight all day long looked strange, but I had no idea it was due to smoke from wildfires all the way in Canada O_O
The moon is a funky yellowish orange right now too. It's creepy but cool.
The Western Pacific is active with TS Chan-hom as it is set to slowly organize over the next few days and might become a typhoon. However, this all depends on the steering currents to set up the interaction it will have with nearby invests.




Read more...
Quoting 292. Huracan94:


I knew that the sunlight all day long looked strange, but I had no idea it was due to smoke from wildfires all the way in Canada O_O
The moon is a funky yellowish orange right now too. It's creepy but cool.


Venus was red too, and Jupiter was barely visible. Very strange. Now we start a several day period of rain. :)
Smoke is effecting people with breathing problems here in the Midwest this past month. Neighbor has complained she has had trouble breathing several days, that her asthma is bothering her along with allergies.

Know my allergies have been terrible this month and we have had the 2nd wettest month on record her in the central part of Illinois !!
Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



ya we are doing the christmas dinner in july thing here for Canada day just put a turkey in the oven to roast all night for a nice noon dinner tomorrow with all the fixings for the mid week day off

it was the misses idea so I said sure why not picked up fresh turkey today there were 6 of them in the cooler we took one just put it in the oven now maybe 10 mins ago


And I'll be wandering around the island with all my "Canadiana stuff" getting teased all day with the "eh"... just wish I had the ingredients for poutine... *lol* They just don't get how good that stuff is! ;-)



Unusual night time rain in Fl.
The heat wave continues in the Pacific Northwest. It was 94 in Salem, OR today with humidity at 24% and dew point 52. Some of you may scoff and say that's not that bad but we're not used to it. To quote a story in the Oregonian today:

Last week's stretch of 90-degree-plus highs Thursday though Saturday pushed the number of June days cracking that barrier to seven, breaking the record of six set in 1970 and 2003. Portland averages 12 days of 90-degree-plus highs each year but only one on average in June. The record is 24 in 2009.

No high-temperature records have fallen in Portland during this hot spell but overnight minimums did. Saturday's low of 71 degrees shattered the record of 62 degrees for the date set in 2013. It was the warmest overnight low on record for June.


High is forecast to be in the mid 90's for the rest of the week but thankfully the overnight lows will be around 60.
DC's summer of horrors continues unabated. Very rough storms moving through right now...


Nina Jankowicz %u200F@wiczipedia 13m13 minutes ago
@capitalweather totally insane here in south Arlington. Two huge explosions and loss of power, even Sheraton is out.

Amanda Jean %u200F@YourShaddow2 10m10 minutes ago
Most insane storm I have ever seen. Crazy lightning, wind, and rain in Pentagon City #WereNotInKansasAnymore @ARLnowDOTcom @capitalweather

Storm is headed toward weather weary Baltimore...
SE Conus

Quoting 261. LargoFl:

end of run for the 18Z GFS has something Texas might stay alert for...................


End run of 00z GFS doesn't have this feature now.
Here's some more perspective on the DC storms
Hey guys first day of the joint training is going well very sightly tired and getting ready for day two

Quoting 251. JRRP:


finally in the atlantic


Yes even global hazards discussion talked about it even mentioned the prospects of seeing storms in the Atlantic

"The extent of the eastward propagation of the MJO signal will play a substantial role in the potential for tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Pacific, and even the Atlantic, during the next several weeks."

Quoting 261. LargoFl:

end of run for the 18Z GFS has something Texas might stay alert for...................


Yes GFS has indicated over the past few days that a storm would develop in the W-NW Caribbean move into the GOM and either takes it towards Florida/Alabama or Louisana/Texas starting late next week/weekend this is something we need to keep an eye on it

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
15:00 PM JST July 1 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (996 hPa) located at 11.0N 156.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 12.0N 151.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
48 HRS: 12.0N 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 13.5N 145.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
*Note: the ID number isn't 01U anymore, according to this bulletin*

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAQUEL, CATEGORY ONE (24U)
4:57 PM EST July 1 2015
=================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Raquel, Category One (997 hPa) located at 6.7S 158.2E or 360 km north northwest of Honiara, Solomon Islands has 10 minute sustained wind of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 7.1S 158.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 7.2S 158.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 7.9S 158.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 9.0S 157.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Raquel was named during the early hours of this morning following a renewed burst of convection, which microwave imagery depicted as having sufficient curvature beneath the cold overcast shield.

Convection has weakened through daytime hours following the diurnal cycle. The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern, with the low level center away from deep convection, giving a DT of 3.0. MET and PAT were 3.0 and 3.0 respectively. The FT was based on constraints and keeping it at 3.5.

On the latest visible satellite imagery, tropical cyclone Raquel appears to be under the influence of some easterly vertical wind shear. The CIMMS vertical wind shear product also supports this with 20-30 knots of easterly wind shear evident at 0000 UTC on July 1st. The presence of this vertical wind shear should limit development in the short term, however an upper trough is expected to move eastwards across the Coral Sea tonight, which could lead to a period where the vertical wind shear reduces and opens up a window for intensification to category 2 strength on Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the intensity forecast moving into Friday with land affects and vertical wind shear being the main factors that could inhibit development.

Tropical cyclone Raquel should continue moving towards the southwest today and then the south into Thursday under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the east of the Solomon Islands. The system should become slow moving by Friday as this steering influence breaks down with the approach of the mid-level trough moving eastwards across the Coral Sea.
Quoting 291. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Happy Birthday, Grothar!

Happy Birthday, twason48!

Happy Birthday, plazared!

And a special Happy Birthday!, to my oldest daughter, Dinnie (Dee Nee).

Thanks for the blueprint, Rookie! And I totally concur: All the best - especially comfortable weather as this is a weatherblog - to all our jubilars, especially the seniors!

BTW: first time I spot the "40C" (104F) in a forecast for my place Mainz in Germany (40,2 is Germany's all time heat record):


Heatwave sweeps across Europe as temperatures look set to reach 36C in the UK today
The Independent, Wednesday 01 July 2015
Governments across Europe - including Britain - have issued health warnings as a heatwave sweeps through the continent, with today being the hottest July 1 in nine years.
Portugal, Spain and France could see temperatures above 40C (104F) with the UK set to see the mercury hit almost 36C (97F) in some parts, making it hotter than Rio De Janeiro, Ibiza and Lanzarote. ...
At Wimbledon yesterday, players on Centre Court endured scorching temperatures in the sun as paramedics treated 123 tennis fans for dehydration, heat exhaustion and sun burn with two being taken into hospital. ...


Wimbledon set for hottest day EVER as expert calls for Heat Rule to be introduced for men
11:15, 1 July 2015

----------------------
More sometime later as I have to head to some work ... Have a nice morning everybody!

BINGO!!! Nice Thunderstorm in progress. It's about time, thank you....
311. NNYer
Quoting 310. PedleyCA:


BINGO!!! Nice Thunderstorm in progress. It's about time, thank you....


Wow, congrats for the rain!

Edit: Wish you could have some of ours!
moe.? one of my favorite jam bands sunny and warm small chance for rain e cen fl.
Quoting 310. PedleyCA:


BINGO!!! Nice Thunderstorm in progress. It's about time, thank you....

Isn't it a pretty pass we've come to when we have to congratulate one another on rain? :-)

Still, congats on the rain. I hope it helps.
Quoting 313. Misanthroptimist:


Isn't it a pretty pass we've come to when we have to congratulate one another on rain? :-)

Still, congats on the rain. I hope it helps.


So, far it's .04, better than nothing, it kinda fell apart there just before it got here. Thanks...
It's Gro's birthday? Happy 10000000000000000000000th birthday Gro! :O)
316. beell


And to everyWUn else who shares the same date as "The Old Great One".
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:

test

Good morning, Scott. We 'see' you :)
From NASA Earth Observatory:

Canadian Wildfires Produce River of Smoke



The 2015 fire season got off to an unusually early start in Canada when blazes broke out in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta in late May. As the season has progressed, the air in western Canada—as well as large swaths of the United States—grew gray and hazy with smoke.

Beginning on June 28, a sharp trough in the jet stream sent a river of smoke streaming south into the United States. By June 29, smoke darkened the skies over much of Saskatchewan, Alberta, Manitoba, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa.

On June 29, 2015, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this image of smoke from hundreds of wildfires in western Canada. Actively burning areas, detected by the thermal bands on MODIS, are outlined in red, while forests appear dark green. The image below shows shows a closer view of smoke and fires burning in northern Alberta near the Athabasca oil sands. While hundreds of fires are burning throughout Canada, some of the fires producing the most smoke are clustered in this area.

A combination of unusually warm temperatures, parched forests, lightning, and strong winds have fueled the outburst of fire. According to the Canadian government, 168 uncontrolled fires and 273 controlled fires were burning in Canada on June 29. More than than 1,300 people have had to evacuate their homes, and health officials have issued health warnings in several provinces because of the smoke.


Additional Image, References and Related/Further Reading
Welcome to July!

I see starting today in my neck of the 34117 afternoon boomers should be making their return.

The PWS a stones through from my home says we've about 5.23" total for June, too low for my sandy sand, dry as a bone.

Need to get the usual soakers to saturate day after day. I think today's the start!
Happy 148th birthday, Canada...and all the rest of the birthday boys and girls out there.
Good Morning. Weather is not always an exact science when it comes to what a large mesoscale complex can do. That complex that straddled the Florida/AL/GA border yesterday afternoon brought torrential rain to parts of South AL and South GA. However, the fringes of the storm that dipped down into Northern Florida brought some brief periods of heavy downpours and very strong wind gusts in the afternoon between around 2:00 pm and 6:30 pm. Lots of trees down all over Tallahassee and large parts of the City without power yesterday including this morning. I stopped at a local rib joint to get a slab on the way home around 6:00 and the rain was light but some wind gusts busted through the parking lot and I thought a tornado was about to come through; easily a few 50-60 mph gusts over about a 30 second span and many trees down on houses and businesses yesterday.

We lost power at the house at around 6:00 pm and did not get restored until 3:00 am this morning.

It was not forecast to be this windy and the southern jet was nowhere near the SE yesterday but that huge complex just to the North probably produced a huge gravity wave as a result of the heavy downpours just across the border in AL and GA that reverberated across North Florida. Would be interested to hear about other similar experiences in other parts of North Florida or the Panhandle.

Here is a picture from yesterday afternoon around 5:00 of where the complex was located:

Here are highlights from the local news story this morning on the Tallahassee event:

Around 5,000 city of Tallahassee utility customers are still without power as crews work to address the damage caused by a barrage of heavy storms that passed through the area Tuesday.

City crews worked through the night and removed 60 trees that were knocked down across roadways and are working to get nearly a dozen traffic lights back in order even placing a generator at the busy intersection of Capital Circle Northeast and Centerville Road.

Winds pushing 61 mph were recorded at the National Weather Service offices at Florida State University and the Tallahassee international Airport, said NWS meteorologist Don Van Dyke.While heavy storms are common during the summer in the Panhandle, "It was a little worse than what we typically get," said Van Dyke, who added that in Panama City Beach winds from the same storms were recorded around 68 mph.

Three storm systems came through the area, but the third and most severe around 6 p.m. is the one that did the most damage, Van Dyke said.Assistant to the City Manager Michelle Bono said there are still lots of people without power. City officials expected that to be the case, but such widespread damage in such a short amount of time is unusual, she said.

"At the height of the storm we had 30,000 customers without power. That's 35 percent of all our customers," Bono said. "That's unusual."
Little bit of offshore activity, heading in the wrong direction. Will just have to wait for the afternoon.

Nice overcast morning commute. Smells like a holiday weekend approaches.

The strong winds that Tallahassee and Panama City, FL, received yesterday afternoon were also reported in Destin and Pensacola, FL.

Winds gusted 40-60MPH! What appeared to be a small waterspout was reported in Destin pass, and it moved from north to south, and passed through boaters at Crab Island, before it crossed US HWY 98 bridge. Very unusual movement.

Further west, the coastal counties of Alabama also had strong winds.
a lot of damage around the Tallahassee area due to those severe storms,still about 5000 customers without power, was 30,000...traffic lights down, tree's down etc....
I wonder how it is around the Jacksonville area..up there they have been getting those big storms for a week now.
It was basically like a brief Cat 1 that pushed through these parts yesterday. Last time that Tally had so many many trees down and widespread power outages like this was when the fringes of Hurricane Kate came through around Thanksgiving of 85 (landfall at Mexico Beach to our SW as a Cat 2); except power was out for several days after that one.
Quoting 300. wxgeek723:

DC's summer of horrors continues unabated. Very rough storms moving through right now...


Nina Jankowicz %u200F@wiczipedia 13m13 minutes ago
@capitalweather totally insane here in south Arlington. Two huge explosions and loss of power, even Sheraton is out.

Amanda Jean %u200F@YourShaddow2 10m10 minutes ago
Most insane storm I have ever seen. Crazy lightning, wind, and rain in Pentagon City #WereNotInKansasAnymore @ARLnowDOTcom @capitalweather

Storm is headed toward weather weary Baltimore...


I was shopping in Salisbury, MD on the Delmarva Peninsula yesterday when the storms hit near there. There was an extremely ominous shelf cloud and the wind hit the car pretty hard. Then, lightning struck a cell tower about 3/4 of a mile away. I hadn't had lightning strike so close to me in years; naturally, my parents and I ran inside of Bed Bath and Beyond as fast as we could before the storm hit. Ours wasn't even labelled as severe and it still was easily the strongest storm we've had this year.
Here is the Conus outlook for today:

Good Morning! :)



A Few Clouds
80°F
27°C
Humidity 94%
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 30.05 in (1017.5 mb)
Dewpoint 78°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 86°F (30°C)
Last update 1 Jul 7:53 am CDT
I did the mistake on thinking we were out of the woods for any server storms yesterday evening.They came through instead early this morning.At around 12:30 yesterday night is when the light show started and it didn't stop until another hour and a half later.It looked like a tropical storm outside for about a few minutes and then a power flash from near bye.We had just missed the third anniversary of the Derecho by a hour and I was checking my twitter feed with people loosing power and flooding in low lying areas from extreme downpours.

Even though this was just a thunderstorm its a prime example of why not to let your guard down.
In case you missed the first course, here's another opportunity to take the very excellent EDX course on climate change denial. As mentioned in the announcement below, this time it can be completed at your own pace. It's still free.

---------------------------

Today we’re happy to announce that we have launched a second run of Denial101x.

This version of the course is self-paced, which means that the course will be open until the end of June next year and all materials will be available at any time during that period. This also means that if you started the first version of Denial101x and couldn't complete it, you now have another opportunity to participate and earn a certificate. You can work through the course at your own speed.

To enrol in the new version of the course, visit the new registration page on edX.*. We would encourage you to share this new, self-paced version with others who you think might enjoy the course.

*https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate- science-denial-uqx-denial101x-0

(WU won't let me embed links from my iPad)
Blob Con 1: Day 2
Went out to inspect the property and a huge tree branch is in my backyard narrowly missing the car with smaller twigs......I really do hate summer storms here combined with the awful humidity.Snow and low dew points any time over this crap.
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:

test


D+
Something hanging around Mexican coast fo sure
Currently just under 35C (95F) where I am with 50% humidity so it feels like 41C (105F). Temperatures forecast to reach 36C in about a couple hours time in London. Hottest day of the year and hottest day since July 2006 for the UK. The July temperature record of 36.5C could be broken today. Highest temperatures so far have been 35.3C recorded in a couple locations.

Also to note, having no air conditioning sucks big time. :(
If you like to follow current temps in Western Europe, here an updating map in Celsius:


Source.
At present Paris gets the brunt with 100F and more. Paris on WU.
I have done a screen shot of an image and saved it as a jpeg. How to I put it into a comment?



Quoting 342. barbamz:

If you like to follow current temps in Western Europe, here an updating map in Celsius:


Source.
At present Paris gets the brunt with 100F and more. Paris on WU.


All those blue areas seem to be doing just fine. (ha,ha) Looks like Mobile in late July thru late August.
Quoting 343. JustDucky251:

I have done a screen shot of an image and saved it as a jpeg. How to I put it into a comment?





Upload to a site like imgur or photobucket. Then copy the URL, click the 'image' icon below the comment box, paste it in the popup box, hit preview, and post.

I use imgur - easy as pie. :)

Hope this helps.
Quoting 344. JustDucky251:

Looks like Mobile in late July thru late August.
Yes, it does. But keep in mind that Paris is farther north than Montreal, Ottawa, Fargo, or Seattle.

Yowza...
Quoting 335. FLwolverine:

In case you missed the first course, here's another opportunity to take the very excellent EDX course on climate change denial. As mentioned in the announcement below, this time it can be completed at your own pace. It's still free.

---------------------------

Today we’re happy to announce that we have launched a second run of Denial101x.

This version of the course is self-paced, which means that the course will be open until the end of June next year and all materials will be available at any time during that period. This also means that if you started the first version of Denial101x and couldn't complete it, you now have another opportunity to participate and earn a certificate. You can work through the course at your own speed.

To enrol in the new version of the course, visit the new registration page on edX.*. We would encourage you to share this new, self-paced version with others who you think might enjoy the course.

*https://www.edx.org/course/making-sense-climate- science-denial-uqx-denial101x-0

(WU won't let me embed links from my iPad)



"Making Sense of Climate Science Denial"
Capital Weather Gang retweeted
Pepco ‏@PepcoConnect 38m38 minutes ago
Last night’s severe storm caused significant damage to our system, especially in Prince George’s County and the District of Columbia.
Quoting 322. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Weather is not always an exact science when it comes to what a large mesoscale complex can do. That complex that straddled the Florida/AL/GA border yesterday afternoon brought torrential rain to parts of South AL and South GA. However, the fringes of the storm that dipped down into Northern Florida brought some brief periods of heavy downpours and very strong wind gusts in the afternoon between around 2:00 pm and 6:30 pm. Lots of trees down all over Tallahassee and large parts of the City without power yesterday including this morning. I stopped at a local rib joint to get a slab on the way home around 6:00 and the rain was light but some wind gusts busted through the parking lot and I thought a tornado was about to come through; easily a few 50-60 mph gusts over about a 30 second span and many trees down on houses and businesses yesterday.

We lost power at the house at around 6:00 pm and did not get restored until 3:00 am this morning.

It was not forecast to be this windy and the southern jet was nowhere near the SE yesterday but that huge complex just to the North probably produced a huge gravity wave as a result of the heavy downpours just across the border in AL and GA that reverberated across North Florida. Would be interested to hear about other similar experiences in other parts of North Florida or the Panhandle.

Here is a picture from yesterday afternoon around 5:00 of where the complex was located:


I don't think there was a gravity wave involved. You had a mesoscale convective vortex develop off the decaying mesoscale convective system that was moving through south Alabama and Georgia. They often produce strong winds, and it appears most of the wind damage was concentrated near Tallahassee. Most of the severe storms were up in the Birmingham area yesterday morning and, by the time the system got down here, it was already starting to weaken. There were a couple of briefly strong to severe storms in SE Alabama but I got a total of 22 seconds worth of raindrops and 16 mph winds. An MCV can sometimes develop off the core of a decaying MCS, and I think that's what you saw. Even that MCV weakened rapidly once it moved east. It's one of those things that happens occasionally, and it's almost impossible to forecast.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:59 pm EST on Wednesday 1 July 2015
At 10 pm EST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Category 1) with central
pressure 997 hPa was located to the north of the Solomon Islands near latitude
7.4 south longitude 159.1 east, which is about 245 km north northwest of
Honiara.

The cyclone is moving south southwest at about 11 kilometres per hour and
should gradually intensify over the next 24 hours as it approaches the Solomon
Islands.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the
Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST today.




TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER THREE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 7:30 PM THIS EVENING ON WEDNESDAY 01ST JULY 2015.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS CURRENT FOR ALL SOLOMON ISLANDS PROVINCES.

AT 5:00 PM THIS EVENING, TROPICAL CYCLONE RAQUEL WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR 6.7 DEGREES LATITUDE SOUTH AND 158.2 DEGREES LONGITUDE EAST. THIS IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KIA, ISABEL AND 45 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAGINA, CHOISEUL ISLAND.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT 08 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

Quoting 341. Envoirment:

Currently just under 35C (95F) where I am with 50% humidity so it feels like 41C (105F). Temperatures forecast to reach 36C in about a couple hours time in London. Hottest day of the year and hottest day since July 2006 for the UK. The July temperature record of 36.5C could be broken today. Highest temperatures so far have been 35.3C recorded in a couple locations.

Also to note, having no air conditioning sucks big time. :(


Oh no! I feel for ya with no AC. I'd have to move back to the desert without one for sure. Hang in there. :/
352. MahFL
Quoting 329. LargoFl:

I wonder how it is around the Jacksonville area..up there they have been getting those big storms for a week now.


JAX just had some minor tree damage, some minor street flooding, not much to worry about, the bow echo that was forecast for yesterday never happened.
36.2C at Heathrow - very close to the record of 36.5C for July with room for more warming in the next hour or so. Rather exciting that the record could be broken today after 9 years!
Quoting 339. RitaEvac:

Something hanging around Mexican coast fo sure

It's a surface trough with convection that increases during the day and decreases at night. It's been there for about 36 hours, and the upper level ridge helps increase the daytime convection. It should be gone by late tomorrow as higher pressure develops over northern Mexico.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
Flew home yesterday, after a week in Chicago, to Costa Rica through some of the weather that was trekking across the Eastern US and the Carib -- a bit bumpy in spots, but got a great view from 35,000 feet of the close planetary conjunction. Arrived back at my house at 3am and this morning I find that my CoCoRahs rain gauge has overflowed, meaning that in that week we got 11 inches or so of rain! I'm ready for some drier weather too.
Quoting 349. sar2401:

I don't think there was a gravity wave involved. You had a mesoscale convective vortex develop off the decaying mesoscale convective system that was moving through south Alabama and Georgia. They often produce strong winds, and it appears most of the wind damage was concentrated near Tallahassee. Most of the severe storms were up in the Birmingham area yesterday morning and, by the time the system got down here, it was already starting to weaken. There were a couple of briefly strong to severe storms in SE Alabama but I got a total of 22 seconds worth of raindrops and 16 mph winds. An MCV can sometimes develop off the core of a decaying MCS, and I think that's what you saw. Even that MCV weakened rapidly once it moved east. It's one of those things that happens occasionally, and it's almost impossible to forecast.

Good morning Sar. The folks at the Nashville office have made many remarks on these systems, in fact, they have a name for it. Its referred to the dirty N.W. flow, and is usually loaded with impulses that fuel these MCS...It truly gets bad here, although rare , when they propagate around a high pressure cell and hit us from the east..It made a mess of our place.
Quoting 322. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Weather is not always an exact science when it comes to what a large mesoscale complex can do. That complex that straddled the Florida/AL/GA border yesterday afternoon brought torrential rain to parts of South AL and South GA. However, the fringes of the storm that dipped down into Northern Florida brought some brief periods of heavy downpours and very strong wind gusts in the afternoon between around 2:00 pm and 6:30 pm. Lots of trees down all over Tallahassee and large parts of the City without power yesterday including this morning. I stopped at a local rib joint to get a slab on the way home around 6:00 and the rain was light but some wind gusts busted through the parking lot and I thought a tornado was about to come through; easily a few 50-60 mph gusts over about a 30 second span and many trees down on houses and businesses yesterday.

We lost power at the house at around 6:00 pm and did not get restored until 3:00 am this morning.

It was not forecast to be this windy and the southern jet was nowhere near the SE yesterday but that huge complex just to the North probably produced a huge gravity wave as a result of the heavy downpours just across the border in AL and GA that reverberated across North Florida. Would be interested to hear about other similar experiences in other parts of North Florida or the Panhandle.

Here is a picture from yesterday afternoon around 5:00 of where the complex was located:


We had wind gust up to 60 mph in Pensacola area!
Quoting 325. LAbonbon:


Day 1 Convective Outlook
Howdy Bon...Hope the spicket shuts off soon..It getting sloppy round here.
Quoting 351. AtHomeInTX:
Oh no! I feel for ya with no AC. I'd have to move back to the desert without one for sure. Hang in there. :/

Airconditioning isn't very common in many/most parts of Europe. Here some blog discussions (first one is quite entertaining :-)

Why don't Europeans use Air Conditioning very much?

Why are European hotels refuse to run air conditioner until a set day?

---------------------

BTW, Pope has talked about airconditioning in his latest encyclical:

Has the Pope condemned the use of air conditioning?
CH, Fr Alexander Lucie-Smith, posted Friday, 19 Jun 2015
Hope this is wrong
The Tallahassee discussion from yesterday morning had the general idea in place but the very strong winds across a very large area surprised everyone:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

Quoting 358. hydrus:

Howdy Bon...Hope the spicket shuts off soon..It getting sloppy round here.

Morning, hydrus. Looking at each day's QPF, that spigot is likely to stay on for a while yet. And in looking at the Excessive Rainfall Forecasts, TN is featured in the all of them.

Quoting 359. barbamz:


Airconditioning isn't very common in many/most parts of Europe. Here some blog discussions (first one is quite entertaining :-)

Why don't Europeans use Air Conditioning very much?

Why are European hotels refuse to run air conditioner until a set day?

---------------------

BTW, Pope has talked about airconditioning in his latest encyclical:

Has the Pope condemned the use of air conditioning?
CH, Fr Alexander Lucie-Smith, posted Friday, 19 Jun 2015


Kinda like us with winter. Lol.
Quoting 353. Envoirment:

36.2C at Heathrow - very close to the record of 36.5C for July with room for more warming in the next hour or so. Rather exciting that the record could be broken today after 9 years!
From twitter a few minutes ago:

Quoting 356. hydrus:

Good morning Sar. The folks at the Nashville office have made many remarks on these systems, in fact, they have a name for it. Its referred to the dirty N.W. flow, and is usually loaded with impulses that fuel these MCS...It truly gets bad here, although rare , when they propagate around a high pressure cell and hit us from the east..It made a mess of our place.
"Northwest flow, weatherman's woe". The same thing is influencing the weather in NW AL down to about Birmingham as well. Another MCS is about to move through the Tennessee Valley and into NW Alabama later today. It may hold together through the overnight hours in Alabama, which is rare in the absence of a strong cold front. This type of MCS almost always starts to weaken by the time it gets to SE Alabama but the decaying MCS can sometimes set off an MCV like we saw in parts of the Panhandle yesterday. I'd sure take some of your rain if I could get it, although without the wind. Last significant rain was June 14.


Nuttin'

good morning from the sunny climes of el paso..........june is now history.........with only 4 days above 100 it was a very cool month.....looks like tomorrow and friday we might again see 100 degree temps....but all in all we've been at average or slightly below for quite some time
Quoting 367. ricderr:

good morning from the sunny climes of el paso..........june is now history.........with only 4 days above 100 it was a very cool month.....looks like tomorrow and friday we might again see 100 degree temps....but all in all we've been at average or slightly below for quite some time
Hmmm. The NWS says otherwise. El Paso experienced four days of below-normal temperatures in June, vs. one day at normal and 25 days above normal. As a whole, June 2015 was 2.8F above normal. Here's the official chart:

Also from England:

Quoting 369. Neapolitan:

Also from England:




Looks like a lot of places will have set new temperature records, both for July and all-time records today. Hopefully this kind of weather doesn't become the common in summer in the next few decades!
Storms starting to pop up, move in off the gulf.

Mostly Cloudy
85°F
29°C
Humidity 82%
Wind Speed S 8 mph
Barometer 30.08 in (1018.5 mb)
Dewpoint 79°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 98°F (37°C)
Last update 1 Jul 9:53 am CDT
Quoting 370. Envoirment:



Looks like a lot of places will have set new temperature records, both for July and all-time records today. Hopefully this kind of weather doesn't become the common in summer in the next few decades!

It will.
Ain't seen nothing yet.
Almost no rain yesterday just lots of wind.
374. bwi
Tour de France gonna be hot hot, even in the north
concerning el nino.....the twittersphere and places are alive with comparing this event with '97/98....although to do so.....data must be cherry picked........no matter what the outcome is with this years event .....it's not like '97...it is it's own event......

as an example...one of the biggest hypsters on twittersphere concerning el nino is eric blake...here's todays post...

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jun 29
The 2015 #ElNino is just below the strong threshold, with the highest June Nino 3 value (1.9) since 1997 #climate


now while it's true......here's what it is missing...looking at the end of june '97 here's what all the enso values were....

25JUN1997

1/2 3.7
3 2.0
3.4 1.6
4 0.7

only one value right now is higher than this time in '97....so do we use eric's logic only backwards...that if regions 1/2.....3....and 3.4 are lower...then we have no chance of equaling or surpassing '97???????
Quoting 361. weathermanwannabe:

The Tallahassee discussion from yesterday morning had the general idea in place but the very strong winds across a very large area surprised everyone:


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.



The HRRR actually did a pretty good job of picking up on the possibility of an MCV forming in the Panhandle. Most of the wind gusts I saw were around 55-60 mph, so the HRRR was close. The problem is that models will pick up on the possibilities of strong winds and then it doesn't happen. We're conditioned to the idea that there won't be any strong winds or, if there are, they'll be out in the country somewhere. The only unusual part of yesterday's MCV is that it developed in a more populated area and the winds were more widespread than usual. Combine those two things and we see the urban version of some trees and powerlines down in rural areas that aren't such a big deal. The other issue in urban areas is the common planting of trees that are decorative rather than wind resistant. You see many more trees down with the resultant power line damage in an urban area than a comparable rural area.
I recorded a wind gust of 59mph while other areas recorded winds up to 74mph.Looks like a anniversary from nature of the deracho.
alittle.spin@30w
Quoting 375. ricderr:

concerning el nino.....the twittersphere and places are alive with comparing this event with '97/98....although to do so.....data must be cherry picked........no matter what the outcome is with this years event .....it's not like '97...it is it's own event......

as an example...one of the biggest hypsters on twittersphere concerning el nino is eric blake...here's todays post...

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jun 29
The 2015 #ElNino is just below the strong threshold, with the highest June Nino 3 value (1.9) since 1997 #climate


now while it's true......here's what it is missing...looking at the end of june '97 here's what all the enso values were....

25JUN1997

1/2 3.7
3 2.0
3.4 1.6
4 0.7

only one value right now is higher than this time in '97....so do we use eric's logic only backwards...that if regions 1/2.....3....and 3.4 are lower...then we have no chance of equaling or surpassing '97???????


I would take Eric's view over yours anyday or night.
surge.moisture@30w.
Hmmm. The NWS says otherwise. El Paso experienced four days of below-normal temperatures in June, vs. one day at normal and 25 days above normal. As a whole, June 2015 was 2.8F above normal. Here's the official chart:


nea....not sure what you're accessing with your chart....however....it's obvious that you didn't read through the link you provided....just looking at each day the last week of june.....5 days the high was below normal....one day was at normal...and one day was above normal......give me a few minutes...and i'll follow it though the rest of the month....thanx for the link
Quoting 370. Envoirment:



Looks like a lot of places will have set new temperature records, both for July and all-time records today. Hopefully this kind of weather doesn't become the common in summer in the next few decades!


Wishful thinking.
Quoting 359. barbamz:


Airconditioning isn't very common in many/most parts of Europe. Here some blog discussions (first one is quite entertaining :-)

Why don't Europeans use Air Conditioning very much?

Why are European hotels refuse to run air conditioner until a set day?

---------------------

BTW, Pope has talked about airconditioning in his latest encyclical:

Has the Pope condemned the use of air conditioning?
CH, Fr Alexander Lucie-Smith, posted Friday, 19 Jun 2015
Then there's always the DRAFT ISSUE. Seriously, this was much worse than if there was air conditioning. Not being able to open a window when it's 34 C outside because someone was afraid a draft would make them sick is a bit much. It wasn't quite as bad in Germany but, from Austria south and east, it's the prevalent view.

The closest I ever came to getting thrown in jail in Europe was in Bulgaria. It was stifling hot, and we were taking a train to Sofia. There were three of us, and car was almost empty. This whiny but otherwise healthy looking woman plopped herself down in the compartment with us and, within three minutes, wanted us to close the window because the draft would make her sick. We just picked up our stuff and moved to another compartment. Five minutes later, there she was again, and she whined about the window again. I asked her to just go to another compartment and she said she "liked the view" from this one. I got the conductor and told him that if he didn't move this woman out of our compartment, I'd throw her out the open window. He got her to move, and I avoided jail.
Quoting 377. washingtonian115:

I recorded a wind gust of 59mph while other areas recorded winds up to 74mph.Looks like a anniversary from nature of the deracho.


This woke me up at 12:40AM, just after my son got to Ohio at Midnight and woke me up at 12:15AM to tell me
he was safe (I'd asked him to do it). I got about a 40 knot gust. THe appearance on radar was different
from a derecho and my prime concern was lightning which was almost strobe effect for a few minutes.

Quoting 375. ricderr:

concerning el nino.....the twittersphere and places are alive with comparing this event with '97/98....although to do so.....data must be cherry picked........no matter what the outcome is with this years event .....it's not like '97...it is it's own event......

as an example...one of the biggest hypsters on twittersphere concerning el nino is eric blake...here's todays post...

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 Jun 29
The 2015 #ElNino is just below the strong threshold, with the highest June Nino 3 value (1.9) since 1997 #climate


now while it's true......here's what it is missing...looking at the end of june '97 here's what all the enso values were....

25JUN1997

1/2 3.7
3 2.0
3.4 1.6
4 0.7

only one value right now is higher than this time in '97....so do we use eric's logic only backwards...that if regions 1/2.....3....and 3.4 are lower...then we have no chance of equaling or surpassing '97???????


This next WWB is likely to push us past 1997 levels and it could be by a wide margin. Well see as there are 5 of 8 BOM models now at or over 1997 levels so I would settle down there Cowboy as you might want to sit down and look at whats coming. At this point this year we have seen a higher frequency of WWB than any other year so far and they seem to be getting stronger.



It's funny Ric as you sit here and call out Eric Blake when you have Dr. Phil Klotzbach saying this years ENSO could be one of the strongest on record.

Will Chan-hom and TC 25 effect the flight of Solar Impulse?
http://www.solarimpulse.com/widget-energy
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
376. sar2401
11:22 AM EDT on July 01, 2015


Tallahassee "loves the oaks" and there are fines for taking one down; you have to get a permit and many housing developments here build the homes around the trees. Beautiful and my neighborhood is like living under an oak forrest (my house is underneath the oak canopy) and you cannot see most of the houses from the air. Point being that parts of Tally are actually the developed part of the Apalachicola National Forrest (Chattahootchie River Basin area) so tree damage is common here when strong winds combine with waterlogged trees and branches.

Does not happen too often through and the trees are beautiful; here is one part of my backyard:
You also have the AEI expected to hit 3 sigma over the next week which is unprecedented and means this ENSO coming on is the real deal. Also you have the Aussies showing the MJO going off the charts per JB this morning which is also unheard. What this means is that rapid warming maybe about to occur across the ENSO regions as Nino 4 is higher than 1997 meaning there is still a lot of warm water to move east.

WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy Jun 29

1997 is the only year to best match the upcoming AEI jump to near +3 standard deviations in 2 wks for August 2015.
G'afternoon, all!

Hey, Sar, if I may ask......what do you do for a living?

Are you retired or employed? Do you work from home? Are you disabled and are therefore on disability leave? Do you receive a pension from Uncle Sam, or are you on Social Security benefits instead? Are you either a recipient of Medicaid or Medicare?

Just wondering about all of these things as they pertain to you.

Thank you kindly, sir!
Quoting 391. PoliticalCorrectness:

G'afternoon, all!

Hey, Sar, if I may ask......what do you do for a living?

Are you retired or employed? Do you work from home? Are you disabled and are therefore on disability leave? Do you receive a pension from Uncle Sam, or are you on Social Security benefits instead? Are you either a recipient of Medicaid or Medicare?

Just wondering about all of these things as they pertain to you.

Thank you kindly, sir!

In what universe is this ANY business of yours? Certainly not in this one.
Quoting 382. wxgeek723:



Wishful thinking.

That would be reality. UK July record went today.
Tomorrow the scorcher for BeNeLux and Germany.
I don't think I have ever been as excited to see a pitiful broken line of showers and a few weak embedded thunderstorms approach from the west. I will be happy with 0.10" of rain at this point. It seems to be the theme of the summer so far.
It continues to be very warm and dry here in Jamaica, especially eastern Jamaica, along with north central and north eastern areas. Also, south central parts of the island is feeling the effects of the prolonged dry spell.

Quoting 344. JustDucky251:



All those blue areas seem to be doing just fine. (ha,ha) Looks like Mobile in late July thru late August.


Looks like Mobile? Except for about half or less than half the atmospheric moisture as Mobile ;)

Quoting 379. nrtiwlnvragn:



I would take Eric's view over yours anyday or night.
Why ?