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Torrential Rains Dent Califonia's Worst Drought in at Least 1,200 Years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:25 PM GMT on December 11, 2014

Torrential rains are falling across much of drought-scarred California, thanks to the wettest storm to affect the U.S. West Coast since at least October 2009. The heavy rains will put a noticeable dent in the state's three-year drought, which was the worst 3-year drought drought period in at least the past 1,200 years. This startling figure comes from a study of tree rings by researchers Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis, How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought?, published in December 2014 in Geophysical Research Letters (press release and supplemental photos available here.) The scientists used tree ring data from blue oak trees in southern and central California to infer soil moisture levels, and thus drought. Blue oak tree ring widths are particularly sensitive to moisture changes. According to the authors, these tree rings show that 2014 was California's worst single year for drought in at least 1,200 years. Interestingly, they found that the amount of precipitation during 2012 - 2014 was not the lowest on record--more extreme three-year low precipitation periods occurred in 1898 - 1900, and in 1527 - 1529. But because the period 2012 - 2014 was by far the warmest 3-year period in California history, these record warm temperatures "could have exacerbated the 2014 drought by approximately 36%," they said. This bodes ill for the future, since global warming will bring an increase in the odds of record warm temperatures, and California has shown it can naturally have less precipitation than they had the past three years.

More detailed blog posts made this week on the research attempting to quantify the potential human contribution to California's drought are available from Dana Nuccitelli at the Guardian's "Climate Consensus - the 97% blog, and from Dr. Michael Mann at Huffington Post.


Figure 1. Kevin Anchukaitis (left) and Daniel Griffin (right) used tree-rings from centuries-old blue oak like the one pictured to provide long-term context for the ongoing California drought. 2014 image by Megan Lundin.


Figure 2. Super Soaker: A massive drought-denting extratropical storm soaks the U.S. West Coast as seen in this 4 pm PST December 10, 2014 satellite image. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Yosemite Park waterfalls resume flowing
Yosemite National Park's big waterfalls--Yosemite Falls, Bridalveil Fall, and Cascade Fall--resumed flowing again on December 3 after two days of significant rainfall in California's Yosemite area. "To see Yosemite Falls coming to life this morning is truly exhilarating," stated Don Neubacher, Yosemite National Park Superintendent on December 3. "This is a wonderful time to visit Yosemite National Park and the waterfalls just add to the magnificence of the park." The falls slowed to a trickle in mid-July and were completely dry for most of August, September, October, and November due to California's exceptional drought. You can view the falls on the Yosemite Falls webcam. Today's rains are sure to make the waterfall roar big-time!


Figure 3. Yosemite Falls on December 4, 2014 after a round of heavy rains got them flowing again (top) and what the falls looked like on December 1, 2014 during the peak of California's record drought (bottom.) Image credit: Yosemite Conservancy.


Video 1. ‪NatureRelaxation.com‬ just released this beautiful high definition journey to the magnificent and rejuvenating Yosemite Falls, photographed in 2011.

I'm on the road today to rainy San Francisco, where I'll be visiting the WU main office and attending next week's American Geophysical Union conference. As a result, my posts will be a little irregular for the next ten days.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Glad Cali is gettin some rain! Of course too much too fast is not good. Thanks Dr. M
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.



light snow at my house this morning at 5am new haven
safe trip doc
thanks for the morning update
Thanks Doc!
How can they look at rings on a 500 year old tree and say 2014 was the driest in 1200 years?
Quoting 6. REDFISH904:

How can they look at rings on a 500 year old tree and say 2014 was the driest in 1200 years?
because the gap between grow stages will be wider if lots of water promotes tree growth narrow to nil shows lack of water no growth
This one got by me too. I'm sure they have methodology; but I wonder how they account for the prior 700 years.

Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

because the gap between grow stages will be wider if lots of water promotes tree growth narrow to nil shows lack of water no growth

Thanks Doc.
XX/XX/XX
My geography is not as good as it used to be... how much of this rain will make it into the Colorado River catchment area? ie :Mead Lake
Quoting 6. REDFISH904:

How can they look at rings on a 500 year old tree and say 2014 was the driest in 1200 years?


The same way people try to sell a picture of a Hockey stick.. it fits the program.
California has the Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest in Inyo county. The Methuselah tree in the white mountains of Inyo county is 4,846 years old.That's 4,846 years of weather records.
Quoting 12. Orcasystems:

My geography is not as good as it used to be... how much of this rain will make it into the Colorado River catchment area? ie :Mead Lake
well well well look what the cat dragged in

hello big fish
Quoting 14. rattlesnake76:

California has the Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest in Inyo county. The Methuselah tree in the white mountains of Inyo county is 4,846 years old.That's 4,846 years of weather records.
ya only way to count and check the rings is to cut it down and that's not going to happen at that age or it best not anyway
Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well well well look what the cat dragged in

hello big fish


I actually look in quite often.. but since I did not know the answer to lake Mead... nor could I find the information I wanted.. figured I would ask. BTW, good to see you KOG
Quoting 12. Orcasystems:

My geography is not as good as it used to be... how much of this rain will make it into the Colorado River catchment area? ie :Mead Lake
Does not look good..But the region should have increased rainfall with the Nino..
Thanks Jeff. I hate it when you're irregular...
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya only way to count and check the rings is to cut it down and that's not going to happen at that age or it best not anyway
They need not chop it. They do small core samples to the center , which provides the ring data needed....so I,ve heard...Mornin Keep.
Quoting 17. Orcasystems:



I actually look in quite often.. but since I did not know the answer to lake Mead... nor could I find the information I wanted.. figured I would ask.

good to see ya all the same I figure not much water is going anywhere that falls in the north till all there lakes rivers and dams are full then they will open the spillways to let it flow on down but it will only be what they cannot keep I reckon
Quoting 18. hydrus:

Does not look good..But the region should have increased rainfall with the Nino..



I can find all of that data.. what I was looking for was how close these weather systems were actually physically getting to the Colorado River catchment area.
Quoting 20. hydrus:

They need not chop it. They do small core samples to the center , which provides the ring data needed....so I,ve heard...Mornin Keep.
true but I always felt that it could exposure the tree to damage but I guess those guys know how to do it without causing that
Quoting 23. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

true but I always felt that it could exposure the tree to damage but I guess those guys know how to do it without causing that
This is true..The tree Dr. is on hand I guess...Dont wanna be killin 5000 year old trees....not me anyway.


Cyclogenesis overnight stalled out the front such that rain has only just now (6AM) begun in the central part of the Bay Area. In the North Bay they've received up to 4 inches. Intense low that spun up can be seen west of the Oregon-California border. Winds of course have been strong all night with stronger gusts. I do not judge this to be in the category of the strongest storms I've experienced in this region. More like a strong storm typical in January or February. Not even a true "Pineapple Connection" despite the hype...the connection was only momentary and is already cut off.
up too 15 cm of snow for us today
about 10 already on the ground
winds picking up to 50 kmh later just after noon
should make it a blustery afternoon with extensive blowing and drifting snow
should all end by midnight

Buoy 46026 located 18 miles off the Golden Gate currently indicating SSE wind at 40 mph with gusts to nearly 50. Waves have built to nearly 15 feet. Water temperature is 60.3 and has been rising! That should be interesting when the first real cold air of the season arrives.
Quoting 25. BayFog:



Cyclogenesis overnight stalled out the front such that rain has only just now (6AM) begun in the central part of the Bay Area. In the North Bay they've received up to 4 inches. Intense low that spun up can be seen west of the Oregon-California border. Winds of course have been strong all night with stronger gusts. I do not judge this to be in the category of the strongest storms I've experienced in this region. More like a strong storm typical in January or February. Not even a true "Pineapple Connection" despite the hype...the connection was only momentary and is already cut off.
It wont be a true Nino pattern until the warm water is further east. The pattern is strange already , it may not even materialize.

Buoy 46026 located 18 miles off the Golden Gate currently indicating SSE wind at 40 mph with gusts to nearly 50. Waves have built to nearly 15 feet. Water temperature is 60.3 and has been rising! That should be interesting when the first real cold air of the season arrives.


hey bay...what part of the bay area do you live?
Quoting 20. hydrus:

They need not chop it. They do small core samples to the center , which provides the ring data needed....so I,ve heard...Mornin Keep.


Also to get last years growth ring you don't need to drill to the center again, just the outer ring.
Quoting 22. Orcasystems:



I can find all of that data.. what I was looking for was how close these weather systems were actually physically getting to the Colorado River catchment area.

Greetings Orca..The certainly are getting peripheral affects..As of now , Northern California is getting the bulk of it.
Storm warning was hoisted for San Pablo Bay which is the northern part of San Francisco Bay. Gale warnings remain elsewhere.
Quoting 32. ricderr:


Buoy 46026 located 18 miles off the Golden Gate currently indicating SSE wind at 40 mph with gusts to nearly 50. Waves have built to nearly 15 feet. Water temperature is 60.3 and has been rising! That should be interesting when the first real cold air of the season arrives.


hey bay...what part of the bay area do you live?



East Bay.
Link

According to some evidence the Cali drought has been worse.
Keeper - I understand there are other older trees including the Redwood but this particular study was from Blue Oaks. Not trying to start the GW battle of the day here. I was just curious if anyone knew how they were accounting for the 700 years prior.
East Bay.


i was born raised in oakland...lived in san leandro and san lorenzo and worked in pacheco
Quoting 36. BayFog:



East Bay.
waters are warming have been for quite some time there likely not going to cool much anytime soon
Quoting 39. REDFISH904:

Keeper - I understand there are other older trees including the Redwood but this particular study was from Blue Oaks. Not trying to start the GW battle of the day here. I was just curious if anyone knew how they were accounting for the 700 years prior.


Palaeodendrochronological archives, probably.
Quoting 42. yonzabam:



Palaeodendrochronological archives, probably.
Say 5 times fast..:)
2014-12-09 19:00 Local %u21C4 UTC

Data | Ocean Currents @ Surface SST Anomaly



Quoting 30. BayFog:

Buoy 46026 located 18 miles off the Golden Gate currently indicating SSE wind at 40 mph with gusts to nearly 50. Waves have built to nearly 15 feet. Water temperature is 60.3 and has been rising! That should be interesting when the first real cold air of the season arrives.
colder waters off to the west have to see if they traverse east been warm on both coasts and now even anomaly showing up under the ice in the high north
Quoting 39. REDFISH904:

Keeper - I understand there are other older trees including the Redwood but this particular study was from Blue Oaks. Not trying to start the GW battle of the day here. I was just curious if anyone knew how they were accounting for the 700 years prior.


This was one of the captions from a photo in the link Doc M sourced in his blog entry "Oaks in California can live for up to 500 years and samples from dead logs can be used to extend the record back in time up to 700 years. Patterns of narrow and wide rings correspond to years of drought and wetness. May 2014 image by Daniel Griffin."

Add: But, what's not clear to me is whether or not that's 700 years total or 700 years in addition to the 500 years from living trees. If it's 700 years total, there are 500 years unaccounted for.
...more extreme three-year low precipitation periods occurred in 1898 - 1900, and in 1527 - 1529. But because the period 2012 - 2014 was by far the warmest 3-year period in California history, these record warm temperatures "could have exacerbated the 2014 drought by approximately 36%," they said....

Not to cause trouble but I didn't realize we had the California temp records from the 1500's.. do we?
The link which takes you to the NOAH Climate at a Glance section starts it records in 1895
umm...i think we might have a problem

Link

wheres this one going? back to back storms?

911s gonna be busy today

Link
Quoting 14. rattlesnake76:

California has the Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest in Inyo county. The Methuselah tree in the white mountains of Inyo county is 4,846 years old.That's 4,846 years of weather records.
Would be very interesting to cut one of those ancient trees down and see if their rings are as sensitive as the Blue Oak (by wet/dry years).. would suck if they weren't though :(
Quoting 33. MahFL:



Also to get last years growth ring you don't need to drill to the center again, just the outer ring.
mornin' MahFL, might need to think that one through...

Tropical Cyclone Bakung is here. Jakarta reporting a tropical cyclone with 50 knt winds and a central pressure of 1002 hPa.
Quoting 47. JNFlori30A:

...more extreme three-year low precipitation periods occurred in 1898 - 1900, and in 1527 - 1529. But because the period 2012 - 2014 was by far the warmest 3-year period in California history, these record warm temperatures "could have exacerbated the 2014 drought by approximately 36%," they said....

Not to cause trouble but I didn't realize we had the California temp records from the 1500's.. do we?
The link which takes you to the NOAH Climate at a Glance section starts it records in 1895


C&P

Instrumental records of climate and hydrology in western
North America only span the last 100 years or so. They are
too short to capture the full range of natural climate
variability, drought behavior and drought impact. The
instrumental records are also too short to provide evidence
on the full range of potential forcing factors that could
produce severe and prolonged droughts. The paleoenvironmental
archives provided by tree-rings, sedimentary records
and other sources allow the extension of hydroclimatic
records back in time through centuries and millennia
(e.g. Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998; Cook et al., 2004).
These proxy-records of climate can provide both baseline
data to help anticipate the most severe and sustained
droughts that might occur, and can also help to identify
potential forcing mechanisms that produce prolonged
droughts
The CFS shows something big occurring.



last warm up before winter settles in
Would be very interesting to cut one of those ancient trees down and see if their rings are as sensitive as the Blue Oak (by wet/dry years).. would suck if they weren't though :(


ahem......may that tree live another 4000 years...LOL
The CFS shows something big occurring.



the ice age has begun
Quoting hydrus:


I was recently in Vegas and flew in a helicopter over the lake. It's pretty dramatic to see how far down the water level is compared to previous years.
Because of the colors of the rocks, it really stands out.
This would explain it. air being pulled down from the North Pole..Cross polar flow likely.
Is OK Doc, Ive been a lil irregular for a week,


: )
Quoting 58. ricderr:

The CFS shows something big occurring.



the ice age has begun



And today, on yer Birthday no doubt.



also a Heads up local score.

Patrap $37.54

ATT U-Verse, 0

: P
Quoting ricderr:
The CFS shows something big occurring.



the ice age has begun


Anything but the "Polar Vortex" is welcome.

1. Blue Norther
2. Siberian Express
3. Arctic Outbreak
4. Polar Plunge
5. etc

But no Polar Vortex.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
715 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS
ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS FOR...
MARIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAN RAFAEL...NOVATO...
SONOMA COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROHNERT PARK...PETALUMA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM PST

* AT 712 AM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...FROM AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
WARNED AREA.
Quoting 64. Sfloridacat5:



Anything but the "Polar Vortex" is welcome.

1. Blue Norther
2. Siberian Express
3. Arctic Outbreak
4. Polar Plunge
5. etc

But no Polar Vortex.


Quoting 38. hydrus:




It would take a major El Nino dumping heavy snow in the southern Rockies to recover Lake Mead, and even then, the Colorado is way over-tapped.
My new blog is a place to talk about the tropics. Everyone is welcome!
Next week, almost all of the U.S., Mexico, and Canada (North America) should have above average temperatures.


Cool down after Christmas for the eastern half of the U.S. and S.E. Canada. Nothing too dramatic but below average temps.


Snowfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow from a low pressure system over New England continues this morning. The snow is heavy at times with 15 to 20 cm of snow possible locally. Over 10 cms of snow has been reported in many localities. . In addition, gusty north winds may cause areas of blowing snow. The snow will become lighter this evening.

Over 12 cm has been reported at Buttonville airport since midnight and in St Catherines upwards of 17 cm has fallen.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snowfall Warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
And today, on yer Birthday no doubt.


thanx pat.....in my case...old age has begun
by Monday we be in the high 40's with rain showers sunday high 30's
Quoting 50. JNFlori30A:

mornin' MahFL, might need to think that one through...


Why is that ?, the new rings grow next to the bark.
Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC
ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20141211 1200 UTC
Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)
UNNAMED 20141211 1200 -9.2 94.8 998.2 43.9
UNNAMED 20141211 1800 -9.2 94.1 1000.3 44.4
UNNAMED 20141212 0000 -9.6 92.8 999.5 49.0
UNNAMED 20141212 0600 -9.2 92.1 999.3 47.2
UNNAMED 20141212 1200 -9.5 90.9 998.4 47.5
UNNAMED 20141212 1800 -9.4 90.1 1000.3 45.8
UNNAMED 20141213 0000 -9.0 89.2 999.6 46.1
UNNAMED 20141213 0600 -9.2 88.5 999.6 48.7
UNNAMED 20141213 1200 -9.6 87.6 997.3 53.3
UNNAMED 20141213 1800 -9.2 87.0 997.2 57.7
UNNAMED 20141214 0000 -9.1 86.5 996.1 51.1
UNNAMED 20141214 0600 -9.4 85.8 993.9 50.5
UNNAMED 20141214 1200 -9.1 85.2 993.3 51.3
Note: wind speed is max wind at 10m in kts



Link
Quoting 52. yonzabam:



C&P

Instrumental records of climate and hydrology in western
North America only span the last 100 years or so. They are
too short to capture the full range of natural climate
variability, drought behavior and drought impact. The
instrumental records are also too short to provide evidence
on the full range of potential forcing factors that could
produce severe and prolonged droughts. The paleoenvironmental
archives provided by tree-rings, sedimentary records
and other sources allow the extension of hydroclimatic
records back in time through centuries and millennia
(e.g. Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998; Cook et al., 2004).
These proxy-records of climate can provide both baseline
data to help anticipate the most severe and sustained
droughts that might occur, and can also help to identify
potential forcing mechanisms that produce prolonged
droughts



Rainfall records go back to 1849 in San Francisco, so we can at least get a rough idea about what was happening in this region.

Speaking of which: the rain intensity has picked up dramatically in the past hour.
Quoting 67. BayFog:





It would take a major El Nino dumping heavy snow in the southern Rockies to recover Lake Mead, and even then, the Colorado is way over-tapped.


Can't keep Mead and Powell both filled.
So Powell will shrink, and I bet Abbey is smiling!

One more theory is up for questioning:
Link
Quoting 49. JNFlori30A:

Would be very interesting to cut one of those ancient trees down and see if their rings are as sensitive as the Blue Oak (by wet/dry years).. would suck if they weren't though :(


Doubt anyone would get permission to cut down these ancient trees to study.
Quoting 78. VAstorms:



Doubt anyone would get permission to cut down these ancient trees to study.
like anything I am sure there is someone u could pay that would do it without a second thought in the middle of the night when no one around
Quoting 44. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2014-12-09 19:00 Local %u21C4 UTC

Data | Ocean Currents @ Surface SST Anomaly



colder waters off to the west have to see if they traverse east been warm on both coasts and now even anomaly showing up under the ice in the high north


That "cold" water north of Hawaii isn't that cold, just cooler than normal for the date. On the other hand, our coastal SSTs are WAY above normal with a reverse SE current.
Lots of talk about the ESPI not being at El-Nino levels well it looks like the ESPI is going to really spike as we enter Spring. As a whole the precip pattern across the Globe by next Spring does indicate El-Nino conditions will be very prevalent.

82. vis0
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya only way to count and check the rings is to cut it down and that's not going to happen at that age or it best not anyway
They can use a blend of ultrasound (quasi-somnogram) by wrapping certain materials around the tree to bounce back readings to  read rings


Beginning with the 2015 hurricane season, NOAA%u2019s National Hurricane will offer an experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to highlight those areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States that have a significant risk of life-threatening inundation by storm surge from a tropical cyclone.

The new graphic is designed to introduce the concept of a watch or warning specific to the storm surge hazard.

Here is the link for more information: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20141211_pa_surgeWarn ingGraphic.pdf
Quoting 70. hydrus:




That is an insane amount of rain across California falling on desert grounds. Going to be lots of run off occurring the next few days especially across the burn areas.
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:



That is an insane amount of rain across California falling on desert grounds. Going to be lots of run off occurring the next few days especially across the burn areas.
don't worry lots of places for all that water to fill hopefully it will be to the brim for all the lakes and dam areas with a surplus to send south
thank the moon above that is not at the highest tides :)
Lots of talk about the ESPI not being at El-Nino levels well it looks like the ESPI is going to really spike as we enter Spring. As a whole the precip pattern across the Globe by next Spring does indicate El-Nino conditions will be very prevalent.

the problem is....there's two sets of coordinates that are used to calculate espi.....looking at your forecast map....one would be above average...and the other would be below.....exactly the same as we have now
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:



That is an insane amount of rain across California falling on desert grounds. Going to be lots of run off occurring the next few days especially across the burn areas.
Too much , too fast , but it will be beneficial in the long run.
The experts begin to talk about the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.It looks like another average season but that could change if.... Read below their forecasts.

CSU

TSR
Quoting 87. ricderr:

Lots of talk about the ESPI not being at El-Nino levels well it looks like the ESPI is going to really spike as we enter Spring. As a whole the precip pattern across the Globe by next Spring does indicate El-Nino conditions will be very prevalent.

the problem is....there's two sets of coordinates that are used to calculate espi.....looking at your forecast map....one would be above average...and the other would be below.....exactly the same as we have now


ESPI is calculated in the area NE of Australia where all the dark green (well above average precip is occurring).
don't worry lots of places for all that water to fill hopefully it will be to the brim for all the lakes and dam areas with a surplus to send south


lake shasta and trinity lake are going to love it
ESPI is calculated in the area NE of Australia where all the dark green (well above average precip is occurring).



sigh.....scott.....let me help you...here's the coordinates and the map......as you see.....the area you are talking about...is primarily just west of the above average rainfall....it is in an area that will be below normal in terms of precipitation


N: 10.0 S: -10.0 E: 150.0 W: 90.0

Quoting 72. ricderr:

And today, on yer Birthday no doubt.


thanx pat.....in my case...old age has begun



Happy Birthday Ric!
Quoting 92. ricderr:

ESPI is calculated in the area NE of Australia where all the dark green (well above average precip is occurring).



sigh.....scott.....let me help you...here's the coordinates and the map......as you see.....the area you are talking about...is primarily just west of the above average rainfall....it is in an area that will be below normal in terms of precipitation


N: 10.0 S: -10.0 E: 150.0 W: 90.0




That's what I said and that is were all the above average rain is occurring based off the Euro. Looks modiki on the Euro.
Quoting 88. hydrus:

Too much , too fast , but it will be beneficial in the long run.


Here in Sonoma, it is really coming down.
Have a leak in the barn, but all hydro improvements this summer seem to be paying off.
Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic
Hurricane Activity in 2015
Issued: 9th December 2014
by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea
Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK


Forecast Summary
TSR predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015 will be about 20% below the long-term
average. However, forecast uncertainties at this extended range are large.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015 anticipates
another below-norm season
. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical
cyclone activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and about 30% below
the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2015
and employs data through to the end of November 2014. TSR%u2019s main predictor at this extended lead
(6 months before the 2015 hurricane season starts) is the forecast July-September trade wind speed over
the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning
up of storms) and vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. At present TSR anticipates the
trade wind predictor will have a small suppressing effect on activity. The precision of TSR%u2019s December
outlooks for upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity between 1980 and 2014 is low.

I put my numbers out yesterday at 8 5 2. Similar to what I said for this years hurricane season back in May
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:

Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic
Hurricane Activity in 2015
Issued: 9th December 2014
by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea
Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK


Forecast Summary
TSR predicts Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015 will be about 20% below the long-term
average. However, forecast uncertainties at this extended range are large.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) extended range forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2015 anticipates
another below-norm season
. Based on current and projected climate signals, Atlantic basin tropical
cyclone activity is forecast to be about 20% below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and about 30% below
the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to 30th November 2015
and employs data through to the end of November 2014. TSR’s main predictor at this extended lead
(6 months before the 2015 hurricane season starts) is the forecast July-September trade wind speed over
the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning
up of storms) and vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. At present TSR anticipates the
trade wind predictor will have a small suppressing effect on activity. The precision of TSR’s December
outlooks for upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity between 1980 and 2014 is low.
we shall see its a ways out lots can change and happen till then
The precision of TSR’s December
outlooks for upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity between 1980 and 2014 is low.
Quoting 74. MahFL:



Why is that ?, the new rings grow next to the bark.
Gotcha.. gotta head cold today and not functioning quite at the usual level of awesomeness! Have a great day!
latest update for my area

11:49 AM EST Thursday 11 December 2014
Snowfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow from a low over upstate New York continues over much of Southern Ontario. The snow is heavy at times with 15 to 20 cm of accumulation today. Even 25-30 cm is possible in some areas particularly near the south shore of Lake Ontario. In addition, gusty north winds may cause areas of blowing snow. The snow will become lighter this evening.

Over 14 cm has been reported at Buttonville airport since midnight and in St Catherines upwards of 24 cm has fallen.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snowfall Warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
That's what I said and that is were all the above average rain is occurring based off the Euro. Looks modiki on the Euro.

here scott...let me put them together for you and hopefully you'll see it more clearly...







ok...now if you notice the area on the noaa map that is highlighted green.....it's definitely in an area that your forecast map shows above average rainfall.......however note the red area....it's eastern edge....is just north of the east side of australia and extends westward past australia......now note the area in that region on your forecast map..most of the above average rainfall falls outside the espi calculated area......a small section in the far east quadrant is shown to have above average rainfall....however....most of the quadrant is forecast to be below average
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we shall see its a ways out lots can change and happen till then


Well if the Euro continues to show a modiki look to next years El-Nino then yes there could be some major strikes on the US next year as 2004 was a modiki El-Nino and as you said you never know sometimes. I like the graph by CSU that shows the decrease in MH strikes in FL the last 49 years where as the previous 49 years had numerous hits on FL with most in the 50's & 60's. My grandad said it was hell here during that time as hurricanes hit it seemed every year.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
900 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA HAS
ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS FOR...
NAPA COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SONOMA COUNTY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GEYSERVILLE...SANTA ROSA...

* UNTIL NOON PST

* AT 857 AM PST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING...FROM AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS OBSERVED IN HEALDSBURG. FLASH FLOODING WILL
OCCUR ON STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CA SEA
RANCH...HEALDSBURG AND CLOVERDALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

National Hurricane Center to issue storm surge
watch and warning graphic


Excerpt:

Beginning with the 2015 hurricane season, NOAAs National Hurricane Center (NHC) will offer an experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to highlight those areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States that have a significant risk of life-threatening inundation by storm surge from a tropical cyclone.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
433 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
WIND...RAIN...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CA. SOME DENSE FOG FORMED LAST EVENING IN
THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED LAST EVENING FOR THE
SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY WAS CANCELED AS VISIBILITIES HAVE
IMPROVED. GENERALLY MILD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
41N/129W REMAINS ON TRACK TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH STRONG WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD...THE STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE 140KT 250 MB JET MAX
MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTH AND OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NEAR
THE GRAPEVINE AREA WHERE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND IN THE SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS IN THE MERCED AREA AS A LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET
DEVELOPS LATER TODAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES AS OVER
THE YOSEMITE PARK AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AS OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE FAVORABLE LFQ OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED 120KT 250 MB JET MAX. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY MORNING. RFC PROGGED QPF AMOUNTS
INDICATE THE VALLEY WILL PICK UP BETWEEN HALF AND INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAINFALL BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WHILE THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS PICK UP 1 TO 2.5 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWER TO 5500 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 6000 FEET BY THE
TIME SHOWERS TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIM
FIRE BURN AREA IN MARIPOSA COUNTY AND YOSEMITE PARK RAISES CONCERN
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
SACRAMENTO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RIM FIRE
BURN AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA AS THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S
PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUES TO SHOW SURFACE CAPES BETWEEN 300 AND 500
J/KG ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LI/S
BETWEEN -3 AND -1 DEG C. THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INLAND
ON SATURDAY AND PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST
UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...MOUNTAIN SNOW AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR IN HAZE AND MIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 02Z NORTH PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AROUND 14Z THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&
Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:



That's what I said and that is were all the above average rain is occurring based off the Euro. Looks modiki on the Euro.
If it stays Modoki , the eastern half of the U.S. is in for a very stormy winter. The more I read, the more data I find to support this. The OPI looks similar to 1976-77..Warm pool in the N.E.Pacific , SSW , Active sub tropical jet , and the deep dips in the polar jet during November.
Quoting 107. hydrus:

If it stays Modoki , the eastern half of the U.S. is in for a very stormy winter. The more I read, the more data I find to support this. The OPI looks similar to 1976-77..Warm pool in the N.E.Pacific , SSW , Active sub tropical jet , and the deep dips in the polar jet during November.


Yeah it looks as if a complete pattern switch for Christmas week across the south.
Hi everybody! New member here, from Northern California (Eureka/Arcata, Humboldt County). This storm prompted me to create an account after years of lurking.

Got to say I was disappointed. We had a really intense downpour for about an hour beginning around noon. Everyone was like, "Here it comes!", then it turned to showers and then it stopped. The big pulse that was supposed to hit last night just fizzled. Yeah, we had high wind and got over an inch of rain, but just a big winter storm, not stormageddon.

Anyway, y'all have a spotter here on the north coast now. One of the reasons I never posted was because the weather is pretty boring here, but I'll let you know if something does happen.

Cheers
Thanks dok!
Quoting VAstorms:


Doubt anyone would get permission to cut down these ancient trees to study.


Actually, I believe a scientist did cut one down, semi-accidently. His increment borer got stuck or broke off while he was trying to core it. So he came back with a saw. And then they counted the rings and OOPS. Oldest tree known at the time.
A buoy comparison of all four of the extreme coastal storms.

A little ways off Maine.. in the Jordan Basin..


Buoy Off Northern California.


The Bomb..buoy NE of the UK..


Buoy off South America that indirectly caught the storm that went over Argentina when that was exiting land.

147 mph wind gust on the top of Mt. Lincoln.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
I'm out to finish clearing all the junk off the patio roof and gutters.
Quoting 109. RedwoodCoast:
Hi everybody! New member here, from Northern California (Eureka/Arcata, Humboldt County). This storm prompted me to create an account after years of lurking.

Got to say I was disappointed. We had a really intense downpour for about an hour beginning around noon. Everyone was like, "Here it comes!", then it turned to showers and then it stopped. The big pulse that was supposed to hit last night just fizzled. Yeah, we had high wind and got over an inch of rain, but just a big winter storm, not stormageddon.

Anyway, y'all have a spotter here on the north coast now. One of the reasons I never posted was because the weather is pretty boring here, but I'll let you know if something does happen.

Cheers


Welcome...
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR POWERFUL WEST COAST STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM PST THU DEC 11 2014


Excerpt:

THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST AND MOVE ONSHORE IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS COASTAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CALIFORNIA WITH
1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRAS.
It is just a tad damp out here in the San Francisco area... I know folks have been making fun of the fact that most of the public schools are closed today because of the storm. It's had its moments, and the winds are picking up. The SF Chronicle has put together some pictures folks are sharing of the storm, and thought the weather watchers here might be interested, so here is the link:

San Francisco Chronicle Pictures Reader Pictures
Its snowing outside and dark.
California is definitely suffering from a massive case of weather whiplash: a long, intensive, climate change-exacerbated (if not induced) drought, followed by a series of massive storms. Some will claim that everything's "in balance" now that the rains have come back. But, you know, a balanced diet is rounded meals every day, not starving yourself for a month, then eating everything in sight the month after that.

Times, they are a-changin'...
Quoting Orcasystems:


The same way people try to sell a picture of a Hockey stick.. it fits the program.
Yeah, it's called peer-reviewed "science". Pretty awesome thing, too. Everyone should learn about it...
Quoting 118. washingtonian115:

Its snowing outside and dark.
snowing here too wash
my second run outside just come back in
another 5 cm shoveled up
with 12cm on first
total so far 17 cm
still coming down light to moderate at times
maybe another 5 cm from now till midnight
may end with near or just below 25 cm for event
Snowfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow from a low over upstate New York continues over much of Southern Ontario. The snow is heavy at times with 15 to 20 cm of accumulation today. Even 25-30 cm is possible in some areas particularly near the south shore of Lake Ontario. In addition, gusty north winds may cause areas of blowing snow. The snow will become lighter this evening.

Over 16 cm has been reported at Buttonville airport since midnight and there are a few reports of 20-25 cm across the region as of 12 noon.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snowfall Warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Snowfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Snow from a low over upstate New York continues over much of Southern Ontario. The snow is heavy at times with 15 to 20 cm of accumulation today. Even 25-30 cm is possible in some areas particularly near the south shore of Lake Ontario. In addition, gusty north winds may cause areas of blowing snow. The snow will become lighter this evening.

Over 16 cm has been reported at Buttonville airport since midnight and there are a few reports of 20-25 cm across the region as of 12 noon.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Snowfall Warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.

Lol..Snowfall warning for Toronto....Thats like a sand warning for the beach..:)
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

California is definitely suffering from a massive case of weather whiplash: a long, intensive, climate change-exacerbated (if not induced) drought, followed by a series of massive storms. Some will claim that everything's "in balance" now that the rains have come back. But, you know, a balanced diet is rounded meals every day, not starving yourself for a month, then eating everything in sight the month after that.

Times, they are a-changin'...Yeah, it's called peer-reviewed "science". Pretty awesome thing, too. Everyone should learn about it...
I cannot believe people still knock the hockey stick graph as being a farce. If one reads the graph correctly, it is at the very least alarming , regardless of how much a person knows on the very subject.10 or 20 years from now , when things get bad , I hope some will remember their posts on this blog.
Quoting 124. hydrus:

Lol..Snowfall warning for Toronto....Thats like a sand warning for the beach..:)
that 401 will be a parking lot for rush hr at 5 maybe even after 3 when school lets out

we have exceeded the first forecast of 10 cm with this event

everyone thought only 10 cms that's nothing some may even reach 30 cm or a foot of snow still no wind very light from nw forecast calls for winds to gust to 50 kmh later this afternoon that will make it look a little intense at times
Quoting 125. hydrus:

I cannot believe people still knock the hockey stick graph as being a farce. If one reads the graph correctly, it is at the very least alarming , regardless of how much a person knows on the very subject.10 or 20 years from now , when things get bad , I hope some will remember their posts on this blog.


It's one of the more irrational examples of denierspeak. Any dataset of global temperature expressed as a graph shows the same trend. A 10 year old could understand its validity. And, it isn't something created by one person, but professor Mann seems to have become the Aunt Sally for the foaming hordes.

That's what I said and that is were all the above average rain is occurring based off the Euro. Looks modiki on the Euro.



i really don't see that they're showing a modoki,,,,,,,now the japanese mets post a modoki probability forecast and i posted it a few weeks ago...they were giving the chance in 2015 at about thirty percent...i'll look it up and see if there is a new model forecast issued......

Duplicate
12z Euro Snowmap for NC..

crazy..

Quoting 130. hydrus:


looks like a cold white new year for many I think
just like that winds are starting to pick up now
Quoting 127. yonzabam:



It's one of the more irrational examples of denierspeak. Any dataset of global temperature expressed as a graph shows the same trend. A 10 year old could understand its validity. And, it isn't something created by one person, but professor Mann seems to have become the Aunt Sally for the foaming hordes.
Hello Yons..I really mean it when I check, and double check my data sources. I am a serious minded human when it comes to finding the truth on a subject with consequences so inherently dangerous. I dont take sides. If we as a race take a chance on ruining the Earths ability to sustain itself , and if all along it could have been prevented , that is a risk we shouldnt take, and the loss too great to define in any language.
stationary snow band starting to narrow itself now it just did not want to move further west got stuck I guess


so i go to wattsupwiththat.com.......as i thought that was where i found the modoki chart last time......and i head to their link.....and voila...the japanese met agency website.....anyone want to help me decpher this?....LOL



Research Introduction
 熱帯の大気海洋結合気候変動現象 、私たちの日々の生活に直接あるい は間接的に大きな影響を及ぼします この気候変動現象として、エルニー ョ南方振動(ENSO)、ENSOもどき、イン ド洋ダイポールモード現象(IOD)、大 洋エルニーニョ、さらには亜熱帯モ ードなどがあり、これらには、数ヶ から十年の時間規模をもつ海洋変動 重要な役割を果たしています。これ らの気候変動現象は熱帯域で発達し すが、その影響は低緯度域に限定さ たものではなく、大気のテレコネク ションを通して全球の天候および気 に影響を及ぼし、アジアモンスーン 影響を受けます。したがって、これ らの気候変動現象の正確な予測と、 の予測情報の普及は、気候変動現象 伴う極端現象の影響を軽減するため にも重要
Quoting 137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I got (and was expecting) this snowband in DC. Went out to my rental garden to pick some spinach and lettuce for the work christmas party tomrrow and drove through snow, just enough to whiten the grass. Kind of ironic to be working in the garden in the snow. After the very heavy thanksgiving cutting I could have used a little warmth to get the last dregs of regrowth but .. nope. Not this week. I still got enough to make a decent salad and expect a little more warmth next week.

Quoting 138. ricderr:

so i go to wattsupwiththat.com.......as i thought that was where i found the modoki chart last time......and i head to their link.....and voila...the japanese met agency website.....anyone want to help me decpher this?....LOL



Research Introduction
 熱帯の大気海洋結合気候変動現象 ��、私たちの日々の生活に直接あ い は間接的に大きな影響を及ぼします � �この気候変動現象として、エルニ � ��ョ南方振動(ENSO)、ENSOもどき、 ン ド洋ダイポールモード現象(IOD)、大 ��洋エルニーニョ、さらには亜熱 モ ードなどがあり、これらには、数ヶ � �から十年の時間規模をもつ海洋変 � ��重要な役割を果たしています。 れ らの気候変動現象は熱帯域で発達し � �すが、その影響は低緯度域に限定 � ��たものではなく、大気のテレコ ク ションを通して全球の天候および気 � �に影響を及ぼし、アジアモンスー � ��影響を受けます。したがって、 れ らの気候変動現象の正確な予測と、 � �の予測情報の普及は、気候変動現 � ��伴う極端現象の影響を軽減する め にも重要

Coupled atmosphere-ocean climate change phenomenon in the tropical, our walk directly to the day-to-day life can have a major impact indirectly as this climate change phenomenon, Eruni ® Southern Oscillation (ENSO) , ENSO mock, Indian Ocean dipole mode phenomenon (IOD), large Hiroshi El Nino, and even include subtropical mode, these include, but ocean change with ten years of time scale from a few months I have played an important role. These climate change phenomenon of it developed in the tropics, but its influence is not intended to be limited to the low-latitude region, affect the weather and the care of all sphere through Terekoneku tion of the atmosphere the exerts, you will receive the Asian monsoon influence. Thus, these and accurate prediction of climate phenomena, the spread of the prediction information is also important in order to reduce the effects of extremes with climate change phenomenon
60F here, clear to PC, Gaw-jus

NOLA Rivercam
Coupled atmosphere-ocean climate change phenomenon in the tropical, our walk directly to the day-to-day life can have a major impact indirectly as this climate change phenomenon, Eruni ® Southern Oscillation


lol....thanx rob
140. robintampabay
Terekonekution  テレコネケション

That is Teleconnection

Twenty seconds of windy wonderland. :)

Hmm. Is that big old Chinese elm on the pasture fence line actually twisting on its trunk base? If it looks cool I'll share another video.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC HAGUPIT (1422)
3:00 AM JST December 12 2014
==================================
In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Hagupit (1008 hPa) located at 13.0N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.
146. vis0

Quoting 140. robintampabay:


Even if  it is at a Low's angle as this present climate change phenomenon whether you give
directly or indirectly big influence to our daily life whether it is
from the tropical atmosphere ocean and / or combination climate change phenomenon these formations are from the Southern oscillation or  south
vibration. Besides these, there are subtropical zone modes, and Hiroshi El
Nino plays a role that is an important role. Whether there are several reasons several are ocean changes to
have a scale at the time for approx. ten years in these whether it is ENSO,
or a false ENSO, Indian Ocean dipole mode phenomenon (IOD), a ************************************************** ************************************************** ************************************************** **********
******************************************  size  change. These
climate change phenomena advisement do occur whether its a departure from government
notice at a tropical level, but the influence is limited in the
region in a low latitude area; is authority of (have fever can;t translate more, asterisks area i could not figure out)
Help U.S. Cope with Climate Change: Enter NASA-USGS Data App Challenge

NASA in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is offering more than $35,000 in prizes to citizen scientists for ideas that make use of climate data to address vulnerabilities faced by the United States in coping with climate change.

The Climate Resilience Data Challenge, conducted through the NASA Tournament Lab, a partnership with Harvard University hosted on Appirio/Topcoder, kicks off Monday, Dec 15 and runs through March 2015.

The challenge supports the efforts of the White House Climate Data Initiative, a broad effort to leverage the federal government’s extensive, freely available climate-relevant data resources to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in order to advance awareness of and preparedness for the impacts of climate change.

The challenge was announced by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Dec. 9.

According to the recent National Climate Assessment produced by more than 300 experts across government and academia, the United States faces a number of current and future challenges as the result of climate change. Vulnerabilities include coastal flooding and weather-related hazards that threaten lives and property, increased disruptions to agriculture, prolonged drought that adversely affects food security and water availability, and ocean acidification capable of damaging ecosystems and biodiversity.

The challenge seeks to unlock the potential of climate data to address these and other climate risks.

“Federal agencies, such as NASA and the USGS, traditionally focus on developing world-class science data to support scientific research, but the rapid growth in the innovation community presents new opportunities to encourage wider usage and application of science data to benefit society,” said Kevin Murphy, NASA program executive for Earth Science Data Systems in Washington.

“We need tools that utilize federal data to help our local communities improve climate resilience, protect our ecosystems, and prepare for the effects of climate change.”

“Government science follows the strictest professional protocols because scientific objectivity is what the American people expect from us,” said Virginia Burkett, acting USGS associate director for Climate Change and Land Use. “That systematic approach is fundamental to our mission. With this challenge, however, we are intentionally looking outside the box for transformational ways to apply the data that we have already carefully assembled for the benefit of communities across the nation.”

The challenge begins with an ideation stage for data-driven application pitches, followed by storyboarding and, finally, prototyping of concepts with the greatest potential.

The ideation stage challenges competitors to imagine new applications of climate data to address climate vulnerabilities. This stage is divided into three competitive classes based on data sources: NASA data, federal data from agencies such as the USGS, and any open data. The storyboarding stage allows competitors to conceptualize and design the best ideas, followed by the prototyping stage, which carry the best ideas into implementation.

The Climate Resilience Data Challenge is managed by NASA's Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation at NASA Headquarters, Washington. The center was established in coordination with the Office of Science and Technology Policy to advance open innovation efforts for climate-related science and extend that expertise to other federal agencies.

For additional information on the Climate Resilience Data Challenge and to register beginning Dec. 15, visit:
http://www.topcoder.com/earthscience/crdc
Hey there.... just checking in for a couple of minutes. I've been super busy at work all week, and expect the same to be true until Christmas week. However, I had to stop in long enough to say it has actually been COLD here today .... I don't think we cleared even 72 so far for the day, and I'm assuming [based on the 10-day forecast] we can expect a reinforcing front or two over the next 7 - 10 days. Thus it appears, at least for us, that the colder than average winter some here on the blog have forecast may indeed verify. I may actually need to pull out my sweaters, which I don't think I've worn since 2009 or 2010 ... lol ... it got down to 51 this a.m. at Freeport airport....
Quoting 148. BahaHurican:

Hey there.... just checking in for a couple of minutes. I've been super busy at work all week, and expect the same to be true until Christmas week. However, I had to stop in long enough to say it has actually been COLD here today .... I don't think we cleared even 72 so far for the day, and I'm assuming [based on the 10-day forecast] we can expect a reinforcing front or two over the next 7 - 10 days. Thus it appears, at least for us, that the colder than average winter some here on the blog have forecast may indeed verify. I may actually need to pull out my sweaters, which I don't think I've worn since 2009 or 2010 ... lol ... it got down to 51 this a.m. at Freeport airport....
hat socks and shoes too wow you poor thing hope it warms up a little for ya


looks a little slow 9 pm dinner night tonight
Excert from Reno discussion:

000
FXUS65 KREV 112039
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1239 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014

.UPDATE...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN
SIERRA WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES...LARGE TREES DOWNED...AND
DAMAGE TO CAR PORTS AND FENCES. WE RECENTLY RECEIVED A REPORT OF A
106 MPH WIND GUST WITH DAMAGE TO HOMES INCLUDING WINDOWS BEING
BLOW OUT IN LUNDY CANYON NEAR THE JUNCTION OF CA-167 AND US-395 IN
MONO COUNTY.

RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE TAHOE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 6500 TO 7000 FEET. HEAVY SNOW HAS
STARTED AT DONNER SUMMIT WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LAST HOUR. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN ON ECHO
SUMMIT AND CARSON PASS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE CREST IN MONO COUNTY AS FAR SOUTH AS MAMMOTH
MOUNTAIN. ONCE THE HEAVY SNOW STARTS, ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES
PER HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT
AROUND THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN, ALPINE COUNTY AND MONO COUNTY.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN BEGINS AT 1 PM. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MONO COUNTY BEGINS AT 7PM, BUT HEAVY SNOW
WILL PROBABLY START BEFORE THEN, SO MAY BUMP UP THE START TIME
CLOSER TO 4 PM. BRONG


route out gonna be slow as well
Quoting 148. BahaHurican:

Hey there.... just checking in for a couple of minutes. I've been super busy at work all week, and expect the same to be true until Christmas week. However, I had to stop in long enough to say it has actually been COLD here today .... I don't think we cleared even 72 so far for the day, and I'm assuming [based on the 10-day forecast] we can expect a reinforcing front or two over the next 7 - 10 days. Thus it appears, at least for us, that the colder than average winter some here on the blog have forecast may indeed verify. I may actually need to pull out my sweaters, which I don't think I've worn since 2009 or 2010 ... lol ... it got down to 51 this a.m. at Freeport airport....
51 Degrees in the Bahamas.!?..Is that a typo.?..:)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Bakung
3:50 AM WIB December 12 2014
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Bakung (1000 hPa) located at 9.3S 94.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
30 NM from the northern quadrant
60 NM from the southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5 /3.5 /D0.5 /24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 9.3S 92.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.8S 91.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 10.3S 88.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 10.4S 86.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
This system is expected to develop and move slowly westward, upper level outflow are to the north and to the southwest.
The 12z ECMWF run was impressive. It showed an anomalously strong upper-level low, with its energy already traceable back to the North Pacific, tracking across the southern half of the United States in the days preceding Christmas, into an airmass cold enough for snow. Much of North Georgia is painted with 3-5" totals, upstate South Carolina is covered with 5-9" of snow, and locations northwest of Charlotte in western North Carolina hit the jackpot; totals there exceed a foot. While this is still in the extended range, what the ECMWF is showing makes sense considering what should be a falling AO/NAO, a persistently positive PNA, and an active subtropical jet.
Quoting 155. hydrus:

51 Degrees in the Bahamas.!?..Is that a typo.?..:)

may have to send one of these that will
keep her warm
Yeah keep the snow band went further south than predicted so many people didn't expect to see snow today.The snow was starting to stick in some places.

CWG's Wes Junker talks about a potential weather pattern shift leading up to Christmas.
Link

So does DT (wxrisk)
Link

For D.C
December 19-25

Temperatures: Near normal
Precipitation: A little above normal
Chance of snow: Near normal to slightly above normal


beautiful forecast for the Tampa Bay area. Dry and comfortable temps.
162. vis0
coatTOOcoast clouds (might be processing)
(http://youtu.be/wiPhMrxqij4)


STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR POWERFUL WEST COAST STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014


Excerpt:

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...CALIFORNIA...
SODA SPRINGS 4 SE 135
WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAK NE 113
INCLINE VILLAGE 6 NE 112
MAMMOTH LAKES 3 W 111
ALPINE MEADOWS 1 SW 109
The sky can actually be blue? :) StL had said 11 days in a row w/ over 70% cloud cover & I know at least one of them we still had clouds overhead, but could see orange from setting sun due to clearing over them. 9 of 11 had over 90% coverage, so this afternoon's clearing very welcome, though don't think it lasts long. Cloudy to mostly cloudy for weekend, but up to 50 at least. Rain Mon & Tue, maybe see sun again Wed.

Currently 35 w/ 29 dew pt in S C IL, light to nonexistent wind starting to switch to SW, 30.26".

Cyto, you in city of Sonoma or county? Stayed in town a few yrs back, loved it, esp Russian valley to coast, then down 1 to Bodega. Hold on to your hat regardless. (bad day for a big one ;) )
Quoting 163. nrtiwlnvragn:

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR POWERFUL WEST COAST STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM PST THU DEC 11 2014


Excerpt:

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...CALIFORNIA...
SODA SPRINGS 4 SE 135
WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAK NE 113
INCLINE VILLAGE 6 NE 112
MAMMOTH LAKES 3 W 111
ALPINE MEADOWS 1 SW 109

yeah just saw on cnn..windows being blown out and structure damage to homes
Front has stalled out once again right over the SF Bay Area and Sacramento Valleys. Moderate to heavy rain is training over the region. Satellite indicates a wave has developed on the front just offshore. Winds no longer an issue however.
Quoting 164. dabirds:

The sky can actually be blue? :) StL had said 11 days in a row w/ over 70% cloud cover & I know at least one of them we still had clouds overhead, but could see orange from setting sun due to clearing over them. 9 of 11 had over 90% coverage, so this afternoon's clearing very welcome, though don't think it lasts long. Cloudy to mostly cloudy for weekend, but up to 50 at least. Rain Mon & Tue, maybe see sun again Wed.

Currently 35 w/ 29 dew pt in S C IL, light to nonexistent wind starting to switch to SW, 30.26".

Cyto, you in city of Sonoma or county? Stayed in town a few yrs back, loved it, esp Russian valley to coast, then down 1 to Bodega. Hold on to your hat regardless. (bad day for a big one ;) )




I'm there right now.
Sonoma Creek is in flood stage, and I had to take an alternative way home from Glen Ellen.
Quoting 130. hydrus:




I owe you an apology Hydrus. Averaging periods containing the new year were resulting in incorrect anomaly fields, a bug I had no chance of seeing until the new year actually entered the forecast period, which was this week. I have corrected the error, and the new image for Days 21-25 is below. This affected the 500mb anomalies for Days 21-25 as well, but all other plots, including Days 1-20, have been correct.

Trending on Twitter in the United States this afternoon: #BayAreaStorm, #hellastorm, and #stormageddon.
Link to the NWS Mesonet Observations.

You can zoom in and out. Move your cursor over the location for 24 hour wind gusts, precipitation, etc.

Link
Quoting 168. Levi32:



I owe you an apology Hydrus. Averaging periods containing the new year were resulting in incorrect anomaly fields, a bug I had no chance of seeing until the new year actually entered the forecast period, which was this week. I have corrected the error, and the new image for Days 21-25 is below. This affected the 500mb anomalies for Days 21-25 as well, but all other plots, including Days 1-20, have been correct.


Lol.. It did look ferocious...I even posted " the CFS has something big "..Glad its fixed.


Snow covers trees in Brunswick, New York, in this image taken Thursday, Dec. 11, 2014
Quoting 161. tampabaymatt:


Wish I held stock in companies that manufacture umbrellas on the west coast..Something tells me sales have increased with the intense wind and rain.
top reported snowfall totals as of 10 a.m. Thursday include 27.5 inches in Jamesville, New York (near Syracuse); 23 inches in Duanesburg, New York 20 inches; 18 inches near Carrabassett Valley, Maine; 19.5 inches in Orwell, Vermont; 19 inches in Killington, Vermont; 13 inches in Lake Placid, New York, and Pinkham Notch, New Hampshire; 11.9 inches in Savoy, Massachusetts; and 9 inches in Laporte, Pennsylvania.
Mount Lincoln, 8330 ft. elevation just NW of Lake Tahoe.
Max gust of 147 mph.


A thick layer of snow covers the ground in Brunswick, New York, on the morning of Thursday, Dec. 11, 2014
John Kerry
U.S. Secretary of State

No Single Country Can Solve Climate Change

Posted: 12/11/2014 4:54 pm EST Updated: 12 minutes ago



I touched down in Lima, Peru, today for the international climate change conference for a simple reason: There is a time for evaluating evidence, and there is a time for taking decisive action -- and the time to act is now, before it is too late to heed the warning. The world rarely gets advance warning of a global catastrophe. But for decades we have accumulated verifiable scientific evidence that climate change imperils all of us, no matter where we live or how we make our living. This is personal and the risks are real for all of us.

Climate change is a monumental test of global leadership. It transcends borders and economic status. Every nation has a responsibility to step up and respond to this threat because every nation is at risk. Thirteen of the 14 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, and 2014 is on track to be the warmest of all. Extensive regions from southern Africa and New Zealand to Brazil and the western United States are experiencing record droughts. Farmers are slaughtering animals because they don't have enough food and water to keep them alive. Other regions are suffering historic floods and rising sea levels that threaten lives and livelihoods.

Peru offers a powerful reminder of the stakes. It is home to 70 percent of the world's tropical glaciers, nearly all of the world's major ecosystems and to more fish species than anywhere else on Earth. All of this diversity is at risk.

For the United States, the changing climate is more than an environmental issue -- powerful as the environmental argument is -- this is also a critical national security issue. It will spawn new vulnerabilities to extremism driven by famine and economic dislocation. Rising sea levels could flood some military bases and the increasing magnitude of natural disasters at home and abroad will strain our resources.

The threat of climate change is screaming at us. We must approach this global threat with the urgency that it warrants. We must work together, rich nations and developing nations as well, to avoid the instability and vulnerability that will surely befall us if we fail to heed the warning on climate change.

Over the next year, we must build on the discussions taking place in Lima to come up with an ambitious climate agreement that will provide the framework for the global cooperation that is essential to saving the Earth as we know it.

Industrialized nations have to play a leadership role. The historic agreement signed by President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping in November was a leadership triumph and a clear recognition that big countries have a responsibility to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases. I want to be very clear: The United States knows that we and other major industrial economies contributed significantly to this dilemma, before we fully understood the consequences. We recognize we have a responsibility to take the necessary steps to meeting our commitments to cutting these poisonous emissions and we are committed to doing so.

But the history of some countries doesn't give license to other nations today to repeat the same mistakes. Developing countries have a responsibility, too, to reduce emissions and adopt policies that respond to the dangers that are now so very clear. Here's an important fact: Roughly half the annual global emissions are now coming from developing countries.

We have time, but not much. Fortunately, there have been positive signs coming out of the Lima conference. We now have enough pledges from the international community to exceed the initial Green Climate Fund target of $10 billion. The United States is proud to be contributing $3 billion. And we are all grateful of the pledges made in recent days by countries like Australia, Belgium, Colombia and Peru. This fund will be critical in helping the most overburdened nations of the world do more to respond to the impact of climate change.

We must weigh the costs of our current practices against the price we are paying in terms of maintaining prosperity and stability over the next 10, 20 or 30 years. Coal and oil are cheap ways to power an economy in the near term, but I urge every nation to look further down the road. When you add up the bill, the costs are far higher than any of us will be able to pay.

This is a collective challenge. No one country can reverse the degradation of our climate. No single emissions source causes this massive harm to our planet. But science has given us the tools to deal with the broad array of causes and we must find a way to build the political will to start taking the steps today that will cut our emissions and save our planet tomorrow.


Grand Canyon Filled With Clouds In Rare Weather Event
AP
Posted: 12/11/2014 5:20 pm EST Updated: 32 minutes ago

GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK, Ariz. (AP) — A rare weather phenomenon at the Grand Canyon had visitors looking out on a sea of thick clouds just below the rim.

The total cloud inversion is expected to hang inside the canyon throughout Thursday.

Cory Mottice of the National Weather Service says the weather event happens about once every several years, though the landmark was treated to one last year.

The fog that has been shrouding parts of northern Arizona is courtesy of recent rains. Mottice says the fog is able to stick around and built up in the Grand Canyon overnight when there is no wind.

With an inversion, the clouds are forced down by warm air and unable to rise.

Mottice says the Grand Canyon gradually will clear up in the coming days.


BB-8 its moving fast in the hot weather!
This would be interesting...Especially if it was January...

Hagupit is about to hit Viet Nam..


Eastern Atlantic..
A good night to all...
"This fund will be critical in helping the most overburdened nations of the world do more to respond to the impact of climate change."

Who does this money go to? Who determines the amount each country is "overburdened"?
What are they supposed to do with the money? Who would actually receive the money?
How does giving away money allow them to respond to the impact of climate change?
Wouldn't this money be better spent stream lining existing and new renewable resources?
I live in Pacifica and it has rained for 12 hours straight...
Quoting 184. Abacosurf:

"This fund will be critical in helping the most overburdened nations of the world do more to respond to the impact of climate change."

Who does this money go to? Who determines the amount each country is "overburdened"?
What are they supposed to do with the money? Who would actually receive the money?
How does giving away money allow them to respond to the impact of climate change?
Wouldn't this money be better spent stream lining existing and new renewable resources?


If only there was some website around to answer those questions. I personally think they are just gonna take the money and run.
Quoting Patrap:
John Kerry
U.S. Secretary of State

No Single Country Can Solve Climate Change


Obama disagrees! The China deal proves that America is very willing to go it alone!
Clear and cool again. 32/59 Getting dry again with no rain since the day before Thanksgiving.
Quoting 127. yonzabam:



It's one of the more irrational examples of denierspeak. Any dataset of global temperature expressed as a graph shows the same trend. A 10 year old could understand its validity. And, it isn't something created by one person, but professor Mann seems to have become the Aunt Sally for the foaming hordes.


Learn something new every time I'm on here...had to Google 'Aunt Sally'...
Quoting 187. Naga5000:



If only there was some website around to answer those questions. I personally think they are just gonna take the money and run.
I personally think an awful lot of small and medium-size developing countries (think small Pacific island nations, for starters) have been prevented from taking steps to preserve themselves from climate change by lack of funds. Perhaps with funds and some help carefully thinking about possible solutions they can come up with ways to survive sea level rise, or water scarcity, or increased temperatures, or whatever is threatening their existence. At least we can hope -- but without a fund like this, they can't hope.
Quoting 191. CaneFreeCR:

I personally think an awful lot of small and medium-size developing countries (think small Pacific island nations, for starters) have been prevented from taking steps to preserve themselves from climate change by lack of funds. Perhaps with funds and some help carefully thinking about possible solutions they can come up with ways to survive sea level rise, or water scarcity, or increased temperatures, or whatever is threatening their existence. At least we can hope -- but without a fund like this, they can't hope.


My comment was in jest, I agree with your sentiment. I think this may be a very good way for countries to aid smaller countries who are at risk with no way to adapt on their own. More importantly, I hope it provides subsidies to start these countries down the path of renewables for their industrialization. I don't think many people realize what we are seeing with China and Brazil is the rampant industrialization the west has already been through. Other countries will go through this phase of nationhood as well, hopefully we can help provide better options than fossil fuels for their turn to help us all.
Quoting 37. RuBRNded:

Link

According to some evidence the Cali drought has been worse.


Thanks for posting the link. It was an interesting read. (And made easier once I realized that downloading the PDF resulted in 'cleaner' text.)
Quoting 188. CycloneOz:



Obama disagrees! The China deal proves that America is very willing to go it alone!


Yeah, that deal was definitely one-sided. Not his brightest idea.
147. Patrap
8:41 PM GMT on December 11, 2014

this is one of the reasons i love this blog. i see stuff i don't normally see. didn't know we have a white house office of sci & tech. established in 76 and kick started in jan 2013?? really cool...

the wording in kerrys speech/ltr was so well done
Quoting 155. hydrus:

51 Degrees in the Bahamas.!?..Is that a typo.?..:)


Low 50s in Freeport, Bahamas is not that uncommon at all. This is the coldest area (relatively speaking of course) of the Bahamas. The reporting station there actually reported a mix of rain and snow in December of 1989, and unlike most of the other Islands of the Bahamas to the south and east, Grand Bahama gets a bit more affected by cold fronts due to its higher latitude.
Quoting 187. Naga5000:



If only there was some website around to answer those questions. I personally think they are just gonna take the money and run.


Hmmm. Sounds like a lot of wording for.... scam. You know whose gonna get the money? All those trying to allocate it and their corupt crew all over the world..
Is there another fund? A reality fund?


Quoting 198. Abacosurf:



Hmmm. Sounds like a lot of wording for.... scam. You know whose gonna get the money? All those trying to allocate it and their corupt crew all over the world..
Is there another fund? A reality fund?





Sure, whatever, a scam. It could be whatever you want to imagine it to be. I'm hoping it's my birthday present. Call me an optimist. (I have to be honest though, after reading through the pdf they post after every meeting showing full transparency, I haven't seen my name mentioned anywhere, but that could just mean it's a really good surprise!)

Quoting 198. Abacosurf:
Hmmm. Sounds like a lot of wording for.... scam. You know whose gonna get the money? All those trying to allocate it and their corupt crew all over the world..
Is there another fund? A reality fund?




Trying to help people you don't know means you must be scamming somebody?
You are too far gone to reason with.
Quoting 200. Chicklit:


Trying to help people you don't know means you must be scamming somebody?
You are too far gone to reason with.

Chicklit I help people I don't know all of the time.
We are trying to help solve AGW. This is not a joke.
Too far gone?
I just think there are better solutions than wealth redistribution.

Quoting 201. Abacosurf:


Chicklit I help people I don't know all of the time.
We are trying to help solve AGW. This is not a joke.
Too far gone?
I just think there are better solutions than wealth redistribution.



You're obviously good at using catch phrases inappropriately.
So perhaps you will trigger reactions in people who don't actually read.
Am sure this is effective for the people you hope to influence.
But for the rest of us it is an obvious (and clumsy) ruse.
Quoting 202. Chicklit:


You're obviously good at using catch phrases inappropriately.
So you think you will trigger reactions in people who don't actually read.
Am sure this is effective for the people you hope to influence.
But for the rest of us it is an obvious (and clumsy) ruse.

LOL...seriously. Eh boy....
I have 2 homes nearly self sufficient and I am rusing??? Who??
Quoting 203. Abacosurf:


LOL...seriously. Eh boy....
I have 2 homes nearly self sufficient and I am rusing??? Who??

Good for you brother.
Your self-interest doesn't impress me.
Especially when you sling patent slander about people who are trying to help others.
goodnight all.

Quoting 204. Chicklit:


Good for you brother.
Your self-interest doesn't impress me.




My self interest? I am out 10 grand on solar to try and save the planet sister.....

My point is that to fix the problem we need to curb the burning of fossil fuels... not dole out free money for people to buy flat screen tv's like thousands of Americans did when they received their cash back checks a few years ago.

Giving money away does not help! Educating people does!
Quoting 205. Abacosurf:


My self interest? I am out 10 grand on solar to try and save the planet sister.....

My point is that to fix the problem we need to curb the burning of fossil fuels... not dole out free money for people to buy flat screen tv's like thousands of Americans did when they received their cash back checks a few years ago.

Giving money away does not help! Educating people does!


You are redefining the position and missing the point.
i.e., lying maybe first of all to yourself.
Anyway, first impressions are often the best.
Restated: Too far gone. (to reason with)

I have no pity for you because you are attempting to influence others with false reasoning.
really, goodnight.


light snow in new haven,conn
Quoting 206. Chicklit:



You are redefining the position and missing the point.
i.e., lying maybe first of all to yourself.
But I have no pity for you because you are attempting to influence others with false reasoning.
There is no such false reasoning taking place.
You seem have built in prejudices because I am asking questions.
Slow day so I'll post a link to the accidentally killing the oldest living thing on the planet (so they could study past climates) story. Sounds like there is some debate about the facts, and that the short story I told earlier may be somewhat romanticized. Makes a better story though!

Which might be just as well. After such a tragedy, it's better if there is some kind of explanation that makes sense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheus_(tree)
Quoting 208. Abacosurf:

There is no such false reasoning taking place.
You seem have built in prejudices because I am asking questions.


you are not asking questions.
You are making statements and false insinuations using tag words to trigger erroneous opinion among people who do not investigate.
really, goodnight.
Quoting 210. Chicklit:


you are not asking questions.
You are making statements and false insinuations using tag words to trigger erroneous opinion among people who do not investigate.
really, goodnight.

Sweet dreams! And thanks for educating our youth! I mean that!


Waves splash against a seawall and onto houses along the Atlantic coast, Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014, in Scituate, Mass.
definition of patent in present context:
adjective: patent
1. easily recognizable; obvious.
"she was smiling with patent insincerity"
synonyms: obvious, clear, plain, evident, manifest, self-evident, transparent, overt, conspicuous, blatant, downright, barefaced, flagrant, undisguised, unconcealed, unmistakable
"patent nonsense"

Quoting 210. Chicklit:


you are not asking questions.
You are making statements and false insinuations using tag words to trigger erroneous opinion among people who do not investigate.
really, goodnight.


POST 184 Is that not asking questions??

Who does this money go to? Who determines the amount each country is "overburdened"?
What are they supposed to do with the money? Who would actually receive the money?
How does giving away money allow them to respond to the impact of climate change?
Wouldn't this money be better spent stream lining existing and new renewable resources?
Quoting 205. Abacosurf:


My self interest? I am out 10 grand on solar to try and save the planet sister.....

My point is that to fix the problem we need to curb the burning of fossil fuels... not dole out free money for people to buy flat screen tv's like thousands of Americans did when they received their cash back checks a few years ago.

Giving money away does not help! Educating people does!


Who's doling out money for TV's and what are you talking about?

The point of the Green Fund is to prevent developing nations from having to rely on cheap fossil fuels and combat the negative effects of climate change on their countries that lead to regional intra and inter country conflict. I highly doubt someone is going to use it to provide flat screen tvs to a third world country that cant even keep an electrical grid running. The reality of the situation is if you don't want preindustrial countries to go the route of China then you need to subsidize their industrialization. That is a major part of fighting future climate change.

If the tv thing is in reference to the Bush Tax Check, most of the money was unfortunately not spent stimulating the economy through TV buying like it's intention, but instead went to paying off debt which did a heap of nothing on the macro scale...
Quoting 215. Naga5000:



Who's doling out money for TV's and what are you talking about?

The point of the Green Fund is to prevent developing nations from having to rely on cheap fossil fuels and combat the negative effects of climate change on their countries that lead to regional intra and inter country conflict. I highly doubt someone is going to use it to provide flat screen tvs to a third world country that cant even keep an electrical grid running. The reality of the situation is if you don't want preindustrial countries to go the route of China then you need to subsidize their industrialization. That is a major part of fighting future climate change.

If the tv thing is in reference to the Bush Tax Check, most of the money was unfortunately not spent stimulating the economy through TV buying like it's intention, but instead went to paying off debt which did a heap of nothing on the macro scale...


So we are giving them money not to be like us???
Wouldn't it make more sense to try and curb our own fossil fuel use and effectively lead by example??
Quoting 214. Abacosurf:



POST 184 Is that not asking questions??

Who does this money go to? Who determines the amount each country is "overburdened"?
What are they supposed to do with the money? Who would actually receive the money?
How does giving away money allow them to respond to the impact of climate change?
Wouldn't this money be better spent stream lining existing and new renewable resources?


It's almost as if you do not have google, and you failed to read through the links I posted included the damned .pdf from their full transparency meetings. You want to scream about your important questions which are answered quite readily by the website...I mean are you honestly trying to claim that your basic introductory questions have just been not addressed during any phase of this large multinational project by the United Nations? Do you really believe that your revolutionary pre-planning stage insights haven't been addressed?
Quoting 216. Abacosurf:



So we are giving them money not to be like us???
Wouldn't it make more sense to try and curb our own fossil fuel use and effectively lead by example??


We are trying to curb our own use as well. Why can't both be done? This dichotomous thinking that only 1 action can be done at anytime is really mind boggling.

Lead by example? I don't think you understand global economics and free markets. Countries will use the cheapest source of energy unless subsidized to go a different route. We, meaning the industrialized world, started this mess, it is our global responsibility to prevent its continuation and to help others move forward sustainably. The Green Fund is such a small drop in the bucket, but may go a long way for the future.
Quoting 217. Naga5000:



It's almost as if you do not have google, and you failed to read through the links I posted included the damned .pdf from their full transparency meetings. You want to scream about your important questions which are answered quite readily by the website...I mean are you honestly trying to claim that your basic introductory questions have just been not addressed during any phase of this large multinational project by the United Nations? Do you really believe that your revolutionary pre-planning stage insights haven't been addressed?

No...I was reposting an old post because she accused me of not asking questions.
I saw your link and responded. Thanks for the link Naga!

DOOM ... got the temp right, was 68.4 here today.
/OT: It's a nice idea, but unfortunately the idea of subsidising developing nations out of fossil fuel usage is being buried by the recent collapse in oil prices. The same fact puts shoddy petro-states like Putin's Russia in its place, which in my opinion is still a more immediate 'global security' deal than AGW, but obviously the latter issue will only be accelerated as the Saudis begin load the market with cheap fuel, driving the recent US shale production only temporarily beneath demand.

It could come to pass that new oil resources won't have the economic incentive to be drilled in the next decade, but they will eventually. It also threatens to ruin the viability of non-fossil energy production in the same short time period.

Going down the coast very slowly, should get here with a vengeance around 3:00AM
225. txjac
Quoting 223. PedleyCA:


Going down the coast very slowly, should get here with a vengeance around 3:00AM


That will be nice. Noting better than hearing it rain in the middle of the night


Changes in California drought map Oct 28 > Dec 9. Does not reflect rainfall that began this week Wednesday.
Quoting 225. txjac:



That will be nice. Noting better than hearing it rain in the middle of the night


I hope all the drains around here are maintained....
Buoy 46042 located 27 miles off Monterey is showing a NNE wind developing while the satellite shows the front and moisture plume over California stalled but pivoting, roughly over the central coast. Possibility that a new cyclogenesis is occurring. The trough offshore is developing a more pronounced negative tilt. Moderate rain is unabated throughout the region and rainfall totals are getting impressive.

There's a spelling error in the title of this blog article.

Impressive....
Quoting 229. DCSwithunderscores:

There's a spelling error in the title of this blog article.

Yes, there is, too funny. Bet he can spell Michigan.....
This was posted by an NWS meteorologist on Twitter--here's hoping something similar happens to California in the coming months.


Quoting 229. DCSwithunderscores:

There's a spelling error in the title of this blog article.
i see it teehee
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:


DOOM ... got the temp right, was 68.4 here today.


Rain in the forecast every few days. It almost like *gasp* a normal winter. Already hearing the cars-on-wet-pavement sound outside.
Quoting 234. TimSoCal:



Rain in the forecast every few days. It almost like *gasp* a normal winter.

Time will tell.... 3.16" since July 01 here
Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This was posted by an NWS meteorologist on Twitter--here's hoping something similar happens to California in the coming months.


The only issue I have with droughts and declaring it gone out here is lake levels. The states lake levels combined are still far from average and is currently lower then this time last year in which ended up having record low state levels earlier this year.


Obviously it looks like from California to Florida is going to have a continued wet period according to the CPC right now. Lake levels should recover but would it recover enough that you can say areas with low lake levels are out of drought? Also the Edwards Aquifer Level (Supplies San Antonio) is still between 20-30 feet below normal and was 12-13 feet from reaching the record low set back in 1956.
Quoting 238. SouthCentralTx:


The only issue I have with droughts and declaring it gone out here is lake levels. The states lake levels combined are still far from average and is currently lower then this time last year in which ended up having record low state levels earlier this year.


Obviously it looks like from California to Florida is going to have a continued wet period according to the CPC right now. Lake levels should recover but would it recover enough that you can say areas with low lake levels are out of drought? Also the Edwards Aquifer Level (Supplies San Antonio) is still between 20-30 feet below normal and was 12-13 feet from reaching the record low set back in 1956.


I was just about to say the drought in Texas is still ongoing so I don't know why he would post that as the drought has only slightly eased up from what it was.
Quoting 232. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This was posted by an NWS meteorologist on Twitter--here's hoping something similar happens to California in the coming months.



I would hope California drought doesn't end up like that as Texas is still in a drought 4 years later.
241. vis0

img hosted by postimg free (oops forgot to brighten text bkgnd)

2nd link hosted by tinypic
http://i59.tinypic.com/15eisr5.jpg

If one reads my comment #9 of my ml-d diary you'll see a so called tall tale i state parable used to explain ancient knowledge.
The more "pineapple connection" like plume(s) will not be fully connected and lets see if they last till ~wed 201412-17 or till ~201212-21 depending on how strong MJO is IF ITS IN any area of ENSO. Notice ENSO graphs are actually phasing downward as this "el Nino" phasing went up...someone is missing some pieces of a puzzle...me? vis0?...i said puzzle pieces not loose screws.(if Sar2401 awake he'd post a phillips screw driver #2 to this comment, so i can LOL)

Quoting 229. DCSwithunderscores:

There's a spelling error in the title of this blog article.


Good catch. I see it now.
244. MahFL
Quoting 240. StormTrackerScott:



I would hope California drought doesn't end up like that as Texas is still in a drought 4 years later.


66% of TX is still abnormally dry or in drought.

I noticed yesterday on the Weather Channel a caption said they needed 21 inches of rain to end the drought in CA, then a lady reported an area had 5 inches of rain so it was halfway there to meeting the rain needed......not too bright these weather ladies are they ?
Quoting MahFL:


66% of TX is still abnormally dry or in drought.

I noticed yesterday on the Weather Channel a caption said they needed 21 inches of rain to end the drought in CA, then a lady reported an area had 5 inches of rain so it was halfway there to meeting the rain needed......not too bright these weather ladies are they ?



Back in 2011, 100% of Texas was experiencing drought conditions.
Now 66% of the state is experiencing drought conditions.
So some improvement, but there's still a lot of room for improvement.

But one pretty significant improvement is the severe to exceptional drought conditions (D3-D4). Statewide there's been an 86% decrease in these conditions (from around 96% to 10% of the state).


Corrected my numbers.

Actually there's been more than an 86% improvement in the (D3-D4) drought conditions across Texas compared to 2011.

Still not perfect, but a significant improvement.
The Euro shows a storm on the 21st and the 24th.Perhaps maybe Christmas eve night would be nice for snow.But definitely not the days leading up to Christmas.Would be a disaster.
Quoting 243. PensacolaDoug:



Good catch. I see it now.

Califona knows how to party!
249. MahFL
A slug of moisture heading onshore into Southern CA.

250. MahFL
It's amazing how much of CA is covered in rain bearing clouds:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks for posting this little opinion piece. I mean, it's silly, arrogant, and demeaning, and it's based on neither evidence, fact, nor logic. But thanks for posting it anyway...

About that whole "planet that is huge" thing: here's a photograph of Earth from just 3.6 billion miles away (or roughly 0.00015% of the diameter of our little Solar System):

pale blue dot

Yeah, in context, I don't think "huge" is the proper adjective here...


I would say that your example proves the point of the OP.

The fact that the Earth can be seen from 3.6 billion miles away pretty much proves that it is huge.

Point of view is central to our physical universe. Try walking from Maine to California to catch my drift! :)
Quoting 248. robintampabay:


Califona knows how to party!


So I heard.

Link
Going to be a wet Christmas week here in FL. Some areas could get 2" to 4" of rain that week.



Northbound traffic travels on Interstate 15 near the top of the Cajon Pass near Oak Hills, California,
Forecast: Heavy Rain Heads South
The Pineapple Express will sag slowly south through Southern California on Friday as the southward dip in the vigorous Pacific jet stream swings into the Golden State.

(FORECAST: Los Angeles | San Diego)

The heavy rain band, which stalled over the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday, will start to move a little faster Friday morning, providing a quick burst of rain for the Southland in time for Friday morning's rush hour.

Meanwhile, the rains that plagued northern California much of Thursday will finally start to ease as the downpours shift south.

(FORECAST: S.F./San Jose/Oakland | Sacramento)

Flash flooding, mud/rockslides and debris flows remain likely for areas in the path of the heavy rain band, particularly given saturated ground from last week's soaking. Much of the rain will also fall during a short period of time as the cold front pushes through, and there is also the chance for thunderstorms, which bring additional flash flood concerns.
AlGore, Kerry, and now THE POPE...all global warming experts! :D (Politician, politican, priest)

they may not be experts but they have the ability to make people listen....in great numbers :)

isn't that the point? to make people understand...
261. MahFL
Quoting 260. WaterWitch11:

(Politician, politican, priest)




The Pope is not really a priest anymore, he's somewhat elevated above that position...
Quoting MahFL:


The Pope is not really a priest anymore, he's somewhat elevated above that position...


I disagree. The Pope is a priest, or else he would not be able to officiate during sacraments.

Beyond performing priestly duties, I have not read where the Pope is conducting climate research. Have you?
Quoting WaterWitch11:
AlGore, Kerry, and now THE POPE...all global warming experts! :D (Politician, politican, priest)

they may not be experts but they have the ability to make people listen....in great numbers :)

isn't that the point? to make people understand...


Understand what? The nuances of climate research? Science?

All I see from his communications on the subject is the usual alarmist rhetoric. Am I missing something?

I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?
Quoting 263. CycloneOz:



Understand what? The nuances of climate research? Science?

All I see from his communications on the subject is the usual alarmist rhetoric. Am I missing something?

I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?


I agree, people are just being silly on here now. Pope's only mission is to spread the word of Jesus not walk along side Al Gore and scare everybody to death saying the sea level will rise enough in 50 years to flood all coastal areas.
Quoting 237. lujohnson:

It gets dry... then it rains. It's been going on since the beginning. Yawn. Normal. Nature. Deal with it. ....Tired of hearing scientific types (of whom I consider myself) act like we understand things that we don't. Time to shut up, observe, learn, and enjoy. If I hear the phrase "Climate Change" much longer, I'm going to start stomping on people with my giant carbon slipper. Can't we just be observers, and acknowledge the wonder of a 'system' of life, and planet that is huge? Why do we feel the need to BOX small parts of this beauty and over analyze, then conclude disaster when we know so little? Time to slow down, expand our views, and stop pissing in our khakis every time we endure a dry spell. Settle down all you busybody chicken-littles!

"Tired of hearing scientific types" - then gtfo.
"of whom I consider myself" - no you are not and your post is proof.

You shouldn't project your feeling of nothingness and meaninglessness on others.
Quoting 266. Sfloridacat5:






Just imagine what those lakes look like in Texas that have gone thru 4 years of drought and its still ongoing. Personally that map you posted means nothing because the duration of this drought in Texas is very worrisome as some of the Lake levels that i have seen are still near record low levels.
I sure hope this verifies.
This will be our first rain all month down here in Fort Myers.
.01" (drizzle one morning) so far this month with no rain in our 7 day forecast.




This will make three weeks with no rain. But I can't complain. The weather's been perfect.
269. jpsb
Quoting 264. StormTrackerScott:



I agree, people are just being silly on here now. Pope's only mission is to spread the word of Jesus not walk along side Al Gore and scare everybody to death saying the sea level will rise enough in 50 years to flood all coastal areas.





Arctic sea ice is recovering nicely
268. Sfloridacat5
The Euro shows a storm in that time frame as well.Whether it'll be snow is yet to be seen.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Just imagine what those lakes look like in Texas that have gone thru 4 years of drought and its still ongoing. Personally that map you posted means nothing because the duration of this drought in Texas is very worrisome as some of the Lake levels that i have seen are still near record low levels.


Texas almost always needs water.
Texas is a huge state. It's like 5 states put together. Texas has a history of having water issues.
It either floods like crazy or they're in a bad drought. That's Texas.
I lived there for 20 years and studied the Edwards Aquifer/recharge zone pretty extensively in school. I explored the sinkholes and caves all over the area doing field work.

I remember when it looked like this across South Central Texas. People were praying it would stop raining.



Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Texas almost always needs water.
Texas is a huge state. It's like 5 states put together. Texas has a history of having water issues.
It either floods like crazy or they're in a bad drought. That's Texas.
I lived there for 20 years and studied the Edwards Aquifer/recharge zone pretty extensively in school. I explored the sinkholes and caves all over the area doing field work.

I remember when it looked like this across South Central Texas. People were praying it would stop raining.



Texas is geographically challenged when it comes to climate.

1. The driest parts of Mexico are slap up against it.

2. The jet stream avoids this region, but does on occasion dips down to it.

3. The four-corners H dominates that region of the USA

Texas also has many extreme rain events. Spring-time super cells, tropical cyclones, and the odd low pressure system can dump huge amounts of precipitation on Texas that causes wide-spread flooding.

These climate influences affecting Texas are normal and stable. It is a very interesting place when it comes to weather.
Quoting jpsb:





Arctic sea ice is recovering nicely


This is a very nice example of non-alarmist rhetoric. It's refreshing to see it.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Texas is geographically challenged when it comes to climate.

1. The driest parts of Mexico are slap up against it.

2. The jet stream avoids this region, but does on occasion dips down to it.

3. The four-corners H dominates that region of the USA

Texas also has many extreme rain events. Spring-time super cells, tropical cyclones, and the odd low pressure system can dump huge amounts of precipitation on Texas that causes wide-spread flooding.

These climate influences affecting Texas are normal and stable. It is a very interesting place when it comes to weather.


Yes, Texas is a state of extremes. Here's a good example. I was in the Texas Hill Country just north of San Antonio for this rain event. The flooding was incredible.
There were some pretty interesting altocumulus clouds over Naples this morning, with parallel lines stretched out in several different directions creating almost Moir-like interference patterns:

Holy mackerel...sky!
Quoting Neapolitan:
There were some pretty interesting altocumulus clouds over Naples this morning, with parallel lines stretched out in several different directions creating almost Moiré-like interference patterns:

Holy mackerel...sky!


Beautiful!
Quoting Neapolitan:
There were some pretty interesting altocumulus clouds over Naples this morning, with parallel lines stretched out in several different directions creating almost Moir%uFFFD-like interference patterns:

Holy mackerel...sky!


Wow! the sun was hitting the clouds at just the right angle to really show them off. I can see the same clouds outside right now over my area in Fort Myers, but they don't look as beautiful now that the sun is higher in the sky.
Yesterday evening, the sunset was amazing. The sky was full of bright shades of red and orange.
The local meteorologist on NBC-2 (Winkle) even showed the sunset on the evening news and everyone was amazed by it.

Pollution is bad and we need regulations, however...
Global warming , I mean ( man made) climate change, and all the doomsday baloney
is rediculous. Im a liberal and voted for obama twice but...
Anyone who still buys into all the current horrible predictions and manipulated data
is a mindless sheep. Clearly the deniers nowadays are the global warming people who
keep saying science this and science that... in 20 years you will be proven to have
been wrong about the predictions and have to change your tune. There are some people
who are against climate change because the hate liberal ideas etc, but there are an ever
growing number of liberals like myself who see it for what it is... a prediction that didnt pan out
and frankly was a little silly but now has become a farce that has to be fed fires of BS to keep it going ( global warming has caused my hairs to split more rapidly now etc), for people who like to be told what to think. That is obvious to me as a liberal because I am NOT a sheep.
Quoting landocanes:

Pollution is bad and we need regulations, however...
Global warming , I mean ( man made) climate change, and all the doomsday baloney
is rediculous. Im a liberal and voted for obama twice but...
Anyone who still buys into all the current horrible predictions and manipulated data
is a mindless sheep. Clearly the deniers nowadays are the global warming people who
keep saying science this and science that... in 20 years you will be proven to have
been wrong about the predictions and have to change your tune. There are some people
who are against climate change because the hate liberal ideas etc, but there are an ever
growing number of liberals like myself who see it for what it is... a prediction that didnt pan out
and frankly was a little silly but now has become a farce that has to be fed fires of BS to keep it going ( global warming has caused my hairs to split more rapidly now etc), for people who like to be told what to think. That is obvious to me as a liberal because I am NOT a sheep.


The UN Climate Change Conference has been replete with alarmist rhetoric and deal-making schemes...and little to nothing else.

Today is the last day of the conference, and predictably, an age-old division between the rich and the poor has surfaced.

If we are going to pour untold amounts wealth into something, I would hope that it would be along the lines of adaptation to changes in the climate and/or relocation of populations in the face of coping with huge natural disasters.

The Earth, for all its nurturing capabilities, is also extremely dynamic. Vulcanism, plate tectonics, atmospheric variances, and cosmic radiation affect life in unpredictable ways.

Dealing with these aspects of Earthly existence is hard enough. Why make things harder by making any available energy source less scarce and more expensive?
Looks like yesterday the place for you surfers to be was Navarre, Portugal!

http://www.nacion.com/deportes/surf/Brasileno-Car los-Burle-implantado-surfear_0_1456854365.html

BIG surf.
What is his handle name on weatherunderground that has the Mikes weather page?
Quoting 279. landocanes:


Pollution is bad and we need regulations, however...
Global warming , I mean ( man made) climate change, and all the doomsday baloney
is rediculous. Im a liberal and voted for obama twice but...
Anyone who still buys into all the current horrible predictions and manipulated data
is a mindless sheep. Clearly the deniers nowadays are the global warming people who
keep saying science this and science that... in 20 years you will be proven to have
been wrong about the predictions and have to change your tune. There are some people
who are against climate change because the hate liberal ideas etc, but there are an ever
growing number of liberals like myself who see it for what it is... a prediction that didnt pan out
and frankly was a little silly but now has become a farce that has to be fed fires of BS to keep it going ( global warming has caused my hairs to split more rapidly now etc), for people who like to be told what to think. That is obvious to me as a liberal because I am NOT a sheep.


If you think AGW is baloney you are indeed a sheep. The scientific discourse is quite clear, just as clear as your attempted concern troll.
I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?



ok cyclone....then i guess our good doc.......doc rhodes.....they haven't published any papers either...so they should be moot......oh....and you too,......yep...pipe down on your viewpoint until you publish a paper.....
Quoting 280. CycloneOz:



The UN Climate Change Conference has been replete with alarmist rhetoric and deal-making schemes...and little to nothing else.

Today is the last day of the conference, and predictably, an age-old division between the rich and the poor has surfaced.

If we are going to pour untold amounts wealth into something, I would hope that it would be along the lines of adaptation to changes in the climate and/or relocation of populations in the face of coping with huge natural disasters.

The Earth, for all its nurturing capabilities, is also extremely dynamic. Vulcanism, plate tectonics, atmospheric variances, and cosmic radiation affect life in unpredictable ways.

Dealing with these aspects of Earthly existence is hard enough. Why make things harder by making any available energy source less scarce and more expensive?


Alarmist rhetoric? Well you would be the expert there, Oz.


Quoting 273. CycloneOz:



This is a very nice example of non-alarmist rhetoric. It's refreshing to see it.


Yes, 6th lowest on record...maybe we should add some context so you don't blatantly misinform people that we have somehow recovered....

289. casch
I question Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis assertion that Blue Oak tree rings give any indication of 1200 years of data. According to the US government the oldest examples of Quercus douglasii are only approx 380 years old http://www.na.fs.fed.us/pubs/silvics_manual/volume _2/quercus/douglasii.htm. How can anyone go much beyond that date by counting rings of the tree, and this assumes that they have access to trees of known demise date and can count those rings.
Come on science is not based on conjecture or assumptions without record.
Quoting 289. casch:

I question Daniel Griffin and Kevin Anchukaitis assertion that Blue Oak tree rings give any indication of 1200 years of data. According to the US government the oldest examples of Quercus douglasii are only approx 380 years old http://www.na.fs.fed.us/pubs/silvics_manual/volume _2/quercus/douglasii.htm. How can anyone go much beyond that date by counting rings of the tree, and this assumes that they have access to trees of known demise date and can count those rings.
Come on science is not based on conjecture or assumptions without record.


It's so amazing to see people come out of the woodwork and be so dismissive of proxy measurements of temperature with sound peer reviewed methodology.
292. casch
Quotine Naga5000;
It's so amazing to see people come out of the woodwork and be so dismissive of proxy measurements of temperature with sound peer reviewed methodology.

I assume you can tell me who the "sound peer reviewed methodology" is done by. At least I quoted my source.
293. casch
Quoting Naga5000;

Quoting Naga5000;
It's so amazing to see people come out of the woodwork and be so dismissive of proxy measurements of temperature with sound peer reviewed methodology.




I assume that you can tell me who the "sound peer reviewed methodology" was done by.
Anyone know a link to a Navarre, Portugal surf cam with no advertising interruptions?

The only link I can find has advertising interruptions every few seconds and makes it impossible to watch the surf coming in.
Here's how students in the 1400s doodled during class

Gro must have donated some papers to a University.

Quoting ricderr:
I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?



ok cyclone....then i guess our good doc.......doc rhodes.....they haven't published any papers either...so they should be moot......oh....and you too,......yep...pipe down on your viewpoint until you publish a paper.....


I never said anyone should be "moot." You said that...not me.

I asked for a link to a paper that doesn't, and will never...exist.
Quoting RitaEvac:
People on this site crack me up, you'd think the sky is falling the way they're freaking out on the oil price drops.


I am freaking out, because it means I might be able to afford a tiny car when I return next month! :)
Quoting Naga5000:


Yes, 6th lowest on record...maybe we should add some context so you don't blatantly misinform people that we have somehow recovered....



The OP never said what you claim...and neither did I. You are putting words in our mouths. Shame!

I said it was very nice to read some non-alarmist rhetoric. Why did you falsely escalate my simple sentence?
Quoting Naga5000:


It's so amazing to see people come out of the woodwork and be so dismissive of proxy measurements of temperature with sound peer reviewed methodology.


Where in the OP's comment did he say he was dismissive? He said he questioned their findings.

Wow...please...this is like the 4th rebuttal I have read that misquotes the OP.
Quoting cRRKampen:

High time to kick them all off respectable blogs. They belong in the chemtrail realm, not merchandising doubt every ffing where.


It clearly states in the RULES for the blogs that dissenting opinions are allowed.

I disagree with your opinion...and so do the rules.
Big Surf - really huge ground swell coming in.
Navarre Portugal
Link
Quoting 264. StormTrackerScott:



I agree, people are just being silly on here now. Pope's only mission is to spread the word of Jesus not walk along side Al Gore and scare everybody to death saying the sea level will rise enough in 50 years to flood all coastal areas.


O da irony..,coming from Mr. Doom.

Goreism and Religion ?



: )
Quoting Naga5000:


Alarmist rhetoric? Well you would be the expert there, Oz.




You're not giving enough credit to yourself and Nea. AlGore, John Kerry, and Pope Francis all spoke with alarmist rhetoric just this week! I defer to you and these other experts.
Help U.S. Cope with Climate Change: Enter NASA-USGS Data App Challenge

NASA in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is offering more than $35,000 in prizes to citizen scientists for ideas that make use of climate data to address vulnerabilities faced by the United States in coping with climate change.

The Climate Resilience Data Challenge, conducted through the NASA Tournament Lab, a partnership with Harvard University hosted on Appirio/Topcoder, kicks off Monday, Dec 15 and runs through March 2015.

The challenge supports the efforts of the White House Climate Data Initiative, a broad effort to leverage the federal government’s extensive, freely available climate-relevant data resources to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in order to advance awareness of and preparedness for the impacts of climate change.

The challenge was announced by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Dec. 9.

According to the recent National Climate Assessment produced by more than 300 experts across government and academia, the United States faces a number of current and future challenges as the result of climate change. Vulnerabilities include coastal flooding and weather-related hazards that threaten lives and property, increased disruptions to agriculture, prolonged drought that adversely affects food security and water availability, and ocean acidification capable of damaging ecosystems and biodiversity.

The challenge seeks to unlock the potential of climate data to address these and other climate risks.

“Federal agencies, such as NASA and the USGS, traditionally focus on developing world-class science data to support scientific research, but the rapid growth in the innovation community presents new opportunities to encourage wider usage and application of science data to benefit society,” said Kevin Murphy, NASA program executive for Earth Science Data Systems in Washington.

“We need tools that utilize federal data to help our local communities improve climate resilience, protect our ecosystems, and prepare for the effects of climate change.”

“Government science follows the strictest professional protocols because scientific objectivity is what the American people expect from us,” said Virginia Burkett, acting USGS associate director for Climate Change and Land Use. “That systematic approach is fundamental to our mission. With this challenge, however, we are intentionally looking outside the box for transformational ways to apply the data that we have already carefully assembled for the benefit of communities across the nation.”

The challenge begins with an ideation stage for data-driven application pitches, followed by storyboarding and, finally, prototyping of concepts with the greatest potential.

The ideation stage challenges competitors to imagine new applications of climate data to address climate vulnerabilities. This stage is divided into three competitive classes based on data sources: NASA data, federal data from agencies such as the USGS, and any open data. The storyboarding stage allows competitors to conceptualize and design the best ideas, followed by the prototyping stage, which carry the best ideas into implementation.

The Climate Resilience Data Challenge is managed by NASA's Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation at NASA Headquarters, Washington. The center was established in coordination with the Office of Science and Technology Policy to advance open innovation efforts for climate-related science and extend that expertise to other federal agencies.

For additional information on the Climate Resilience Data Challenge and to register beginning Dec. 15, visit:
http://www.topcoder.com/earthscience/crdc

here's your whole quote....different words....same meaning.,..and as such...i would hate for you to be a hypocrite by not holding yourself to the same standards...


The nuances of climate research? Science?

All I see from his communications on the subject is the usual alarmist rhetoric. Am I missing something?

I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Wunderground's Climate Change Position

Based on the evidence, more than 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.
Red States Are Getting a New Shade of Redder
1
The people who deny climate change are most likely to suffer from it.

By Joshua Zaffos


Climate change denial is now “something of a litmus test for Republican politicians to prove their conservative bona fides,” says Riley Dunlap, a sociologist at Oklahoma State University. Dunlap and colleagues recently published their own study in Nature Climate Change, which found that party affiliations are even politicizing how we perceive weather: Democrats were more likely than Republicans to report the exceptionally mild winter of 2012 as “warmer than usual.” And as Dunlap’s past research on the politics of climate change points out, people who oppose government climate action are more likely to hold misperceptions on the science.
Pope's only mission is to spread the word of Jesus not walk along side Al Gore and scare everybody to death saying the sea level will rise enough in 50 years to flood all coastal areas.

O da irony..,coming from Mr. Doom.

Goreism and Religion ?







don't worry pat...he didn't also major in meteorology....he majored in religious studies as well...he's qualified to tell the pope what he is supposed to and not supposed to talk about.......cus we all know where in genesis there's no place that says we are to be stewards of the earth
Quoting ricderr:
here's your whole quote....different words....same meaning.,..and as such...i would hate for you to be a hypocrite by not holding yourself to the same standards...


The nuances of climate research? Science?

All I see from his communications on the subject is the usual alarmist rhetoric. Am I missing something?

I would love to see any scientific paper written by Pope Francis. Can you link to one, please?
Action: Quote | Ignore User


I do not see anywhere in my comment where I wanted the Pope to be "moot"...on any subject.

He can talk all he wants. All I did was point out that his speech was alarmist rhetoric.

Let's get back to my main point in the comment. What's his scientific background? Did he major in a climate science? Has he written any papers on the subject?

He has injected himself into the discussion. Since he is a person of great importance on the planetary level, I want to know more about his science background since he is using alarmist rhetoric about a scientific subject.

As for myself, I am not only a very poor man, but also a very unimportant man. Even if I did write a paper on the subject, it would have ZERO influence.
Quoting ricderr:
Pope's only mission is to spread the word of Jesus not walk along side Al Gore and scare everybody to death saying the sea level will rise enough in 50 years to flood all coastal areas.

O da irony..,coming from Mr. Doom.

Goreism and Religion ?







don't worry pat...he didn't also major in meteorology....he majored in religious studies as well...he's qualified to tell the pope what he is supposed to and not supposed to talk about.......cus we all know where in genesis there's no place that says we are to be stewards of the earth


Can't we care for the Earth and still use the energy that the Earth has provided for us?

Saying no...would be equal to us not having just cause to use ANYTHING that the Earth provides for us to use.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I will not participate in that blog because dissenting commenters are quickly banned for long periods.
That is entirely untrue, of course. Dissent is not only welcome there, but encouraged. On the other hand, demagoguery, ideological posturing, repetition of long-debunked denialist myths, the constant posting of blog articles from thoroughly discredited websites, ad hominem attacks, anti-scientific lies and distortions, fake-skeptioc blathering, and most other forms of blatant contrarianistic trolling do tend to wither rather quickly...
Quoting Neapolitan:
That is entirely untrue, of course. Dissent is not only welcome there, but encouraged. On the other hand, demagoguery, ideological posturing, repetition of long-debunked denialist myths, the constant posting of blog articles from thoroughly discredited websites, ad hominem attacks, anti-scientific lies and distortions, fake-skeptioc blathering, and most other forms of blatant contrarianistic trolling do tend to wither rather quickly...


I'm surprised you are posturing yourself as against this list you've provided.
Quoting 317. Neapolitan:

That is entirely untrue, of course. Dissent is not only welcome there, but encouraged. On the other hand, demagoguery, ideological posturing, repetition of long-debunked denialist myths, the constant posting of blog articles from thoroughly discredited websites, ad hominem attacks, anti-scientific lies and distortions, fake-skeptioc blathering, and most other forms of blatant contrarianistic trolling do tend to wither rather quickly...


Nea, I'd like for you to check out that oil.pro.com site, as it has interesting topics about the industry and climate talk as well. With your good words and wisdom you ought to put in your 2 cents of how you feel about the fossil fuel industry on that site.
For some clarity and reason,...no one is gonna stop fueling the Globe with Fossil Fuels in any way to reduce Carbon Emission any time soon.


On Charley Patton highway
The mist, the rain, the mud
Somewhere east of Tunica
I'm close to giving up
The car goes round in circles
The road remains the same
For help and consolation
I'll turn it on again
Turn it up
Let's get back to my main point in the comment. What's his scientific background? Did he major in a climate science? Has he written any papers on the subject?

He has injected himself into the discussion. Since he is a person of great importance on the planetary level, I want to know more about his science background since he is using alarmist rhetoric about a scientific subject.



you are quite correct...to many...he is a very important person.....but that should not limit him to any more degree than we limit ourselves.....

if you feel he should be limited....then i would think your only choice would be to believe and obey everything he says within those limitations....that's kind of scary......

so then if as you and me...he should not be limited....then again....we must resolve the issue...are the only people who can talk on the subject limited to those that have published scientific papers
Quoting 311. CycloneOz:



I will not participate in that blog because dissenting commenters are quickly banned for long periods.


That is not true at all... and you KNOW it. The problem for you is you have NO science to back up your denialist rantings, so after a fashion they are nothing more than spam.. worthless as your op=ed/opinion science spam
A touch of serendipity
A little stroke of luck
The radio inside this car
Brings guidance from above
The smallest contribution
Will keep me in safe hands
I'm calling 1-800
I ain't leaving it to chance


397.13ppm

Atmospheric CO2 for November 2014
Preliminary monthly average as of December 5, 2014
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)

Quoting 316. CycloneOz:



Can't we care for the Earth and still use the energy that the Earth has provided for us?

Saying no...would be equal to us not having just cause to use ANYTHING that the Earth provides for us to use.
use as much as one needs but dispose of its waste in a non side effect manner with next to nil effects

the planet is not ur kitchen to mess up as much as you want

I dig it...Religion and politics all over the blog...Maybe we can talk food again, and then someone will rat me out to the mods for not staying on topic......pffft....
333. txjac
Lima climate talks set for record carbon footprint

Link

I know, I read the article ...the record footprint will be offset by Peru protecting three areas of forests ....

However that could have been done without the conference being held there. Why does it have to be held at a physical location? In this day and age, with all the forms of communication that we have, why cant meetings be held via teleconference? Think of the money that was put out just to hold this one conference ...that same money could have been applied at making a difference in climate change beyond just talks and future agreements.

I'm a pretty big into practicing what I preach. I believe that we humans impact our environment and need to do what we can to preserve it. It just bothers me that we throw so much money around that really doesn't do anything to mitigate climate change. There are better ways to spend that same money that would benefit the earth.

Quoting 325. indianrivguy:



That is not true at all... and you KNOW it. The problem for you is you have NO science to back up your denialist rantings, so after a fashion they are nothing more than spam.. worthless as your op=ed/opinion science spam


Yep, this is the problem with those who are opposed to the idea that GHGs are warming the planet. They never present any credible evidence to the contrary. They feed off websites and PR agencies that make money from the fossil fuel funded denier industry, and spout the same old, tired propaganda.

It's all just emotional, knee jerk 'I don't like it, so I'm not having it' arm flapping.
Arctic Research

Levels of CO2 vs Solar Activity (by decade)

been busy just got back thats gonna change up

Quoting 329. hydrus:

I dig it...Religion and politics all over the blog...Maybe we can talk food again, and then someone will rat me out to the mods for not staying on topic......pffft....
George W. Bush says that he is committed to fighting global warming.. As a matter of fact, he announced he's sending 20,000 troops to the sun" --David Letterman
Quoting 336. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

been busy just got back thats gonna change up


Greetings Keep....what a troubled world we live in......:)
Quoting 329. hydrus:

I dig it...Religion and politics all over the blog...Maybe we can talk food again, and then someone will rat me out to the mods for not staying on topic......pffft....


everything we know in one minute

Global Climate Change Indicators

Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
Euro still bullish on Christmas eve storm.Still all the way out there.


warm up then winter moves in
'Men are idiots and idiots do stupid things,' study finds

Excerpt:

Examining the nominations of the past 20 years, the researchers found that of 413 Darwin Awards nominations, 332 were independently verified and confirmed. The researchers then excluded joint male and female nominees from their analysis - typically, "overly adventurous couples in compromising positions" - leaving 318 valid cases.

The analysis shows that, of these 318 cases, 282 of the awards were awarded to men, with just 36 being given to women. Therefore, the study reports a hugely statistically significant finding of men making up 88.7% of Darwin Award winners.
Quoting 343. washingtonian115:

Euro still bullish on Christmas eve storm.
merry Christmas hope u enjoy the Christmas present u are getting
Dalai Lama

Being concerned about other people is especially relevant in today's world. If we consider the complex inter-connectedness of our modern lives, how we depend on others and others depend on us, our outlook will change.

We’ll begin to see 'others' not as somehow distant from us, but as people we are in touch with, people close to us; we will no longer feel indifferent to them.
So my drive to work this morning was very odd. The sun was out, but the roads were more flooded than I've seen them before in the 3.5 years I've lived here.
Quoting 349. TimSoCal:

So my drive to work this morning was very odd. The sun was out, but the roads were more flooded than I've seen them before in the 3.5 years I've lived here.

3.5 years think that's the last time cali was wet
12Z GFS
The GFS is getting more aggressive with the cold air just after Christmas for the eastern part of the U.S.
Quoting 351. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS
The GFS is getting more aggressive with the cold air just after Christmas for the eastern part of the U.S.




Just bout the time my Xmas Ham is turned into a nice split pea soup.

I like the cold..as the NOLA Summa's can be torridly Humid.

Quoting 335. CycloneOz:

Arctic Research

Levels of CO2 vs Solar Activity (by decade)




This is consistently the dumbest argument against climate change. Only fools think the ratio of CO2 forcing to temperature is 1 to 1. It goes to show one thing only, you have a poor grasp on such a basic concept like forcings and therefore should not be a considered a reliable source on anything climate related. Misleading graphics just cement it into place. Thanks!

Not to mention this graph is by climate joke, Soon. That isn't accepted Science Oz, you are deceiving and misleading yet again. I would say at this point it's purposeful.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Link
Keep linking to that piece of swill all you wish. But everyone should know it's been completely discredited by actual climate scientists, rebuked by nearly every major scientific organization on the planet, widely ridiculed for its utter lack of factual science, thoroughly debunked by further research, and chastised by governments around the globe. Several actual climate scientists asked to have their names removed from the film after it turned out the director had intentionally manipulated their words and thoughts. The only support it's received is from the same stale, tired batch of creaking denialists we've all become weary of. But, yes, please, keep posting it...
On Climate Modeling and Man-Made CO2 ASSUMPTIONS...

Professor Patrick Michaels - Department of Environmental Sciences - University of Virginia

"We put an increase of carbon dioxide in them [models] of 1% per year. It's [actually only] been .49% per year for the last 10 years, .42% for the 10 years before that, and .43% for the 10 years before that. So the models have twice as much green house warming radiation going in them as is known to be happening. It shouldn't shock you that they are predicting more warming than is occurring."
Warm air that has settled in over Canada and the U.S. on Dec. 24th


A large piece of Arctic air plunging down towards the U.S. on Dec. 26th.

Dec. 27th (Ice Box for the eastern half of the U.S.) - Also take note of the warm air over Alaska - classic setup

Quoting 355. CycloneOz:

On Climate Modeling and Man-Made CO2 ASSUMPTIONS...

Professor Patrick Michaels - Department of Environmental Sciences - University of Virginia

"We put an increase of carbon dioxide in them [models] of 1% per year. It's [actually only] been .49% per year for the last 10 years, .42% for the 10 years before that, and .43% for the 10 years before that. So the models have twice as much green house warming radiation going in them as is known to be happening. It shouldn't shock you that they are predicting more warming than is occurring."


Cato Institute shill. Care to post any actual scientists from those who haven't sold out to political ideology? I believe this is called confirmation bias, Oz. Greenhouse effect deniers are hilarious.
Quoting Naga5000:


This is consistently the dumbest argument against climate change. Only fools think the ratio of CO2 forcing to temperature is 1 to 1. It goes to show one thing only, you have a poor grasp on such a basic concept like forcings and therefore should not be a considered a reliable source on anything climate related. Misleading graphics just cement it into place. Thanks!


I believe that only fools deny that solar activity is the 1 to 1 reason for temperature increases or decreases.

And there is no such thing as "forcings." That is a made-up word.
Island Nations Are Now Screaming It: Climate Change Will Sink Us
By Alex Morales Dec 10, 2014 8:59 AM CT


Climate: Now or Never

Spanning only 10 square miles, Tuvalu is at risk of being submerged by the sea, a prospect that has given the tiny island nation at outsized voice in the global warming debate.

Low-lying atolls from Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands in the Pacific to the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are at risk of being wiped out entirely in the coming decades by rising seas and extreme weather.

That puts them at the forefront of climate change, and the island states are making an emotional case for the world to act at United Nations talks on carbon emissions. Their stance has been buttressed by the typhoon that blasted the Philippines in recent days.

A Global Push to Save the Planet

“No national leader in the history of humanity has ever faced this question: ‘Will we survive or will we disappear under the sea?’” Tuvalu Prime Minister Enele Sopoaga said yesterday at the annual UN climate conference in Lima. “Climate change is the single greatest challenge facing my country. It is threatening to our lives, our security and the wellbeing of every single human being living on the Tuvalu islands.”

Sopoaga told delegates that climate change keeps him awake at night because humans risk creating “hell on Earth.”


A resident stands surrounded by the high tide energized by a storm surge that struck... Read More
The world is on course to warm by as much as 4.8 degrees Celsius (8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, according to UN scientists. That will raise the level of the oceans as glaciers and polar icecaps melt, and also because water expands as it heats up.

“They have traditionally been a very powerful voice -- they’re the moral voice,” Christiana Figueres, the diplomat stewarding the UN conference, said in an interview in Lima. “They are the ones that are most urgently vulnerable.”

Rising Seas

The islands have had three tangible victories at the UN talks, which will help shape the debate on global warming in the coming years. Last year, they won a two-decade effort to create a mechanism for climate-related losses and damages.


Three years ago, they persuaded envoys to open a new workstream examining how industrial nations can make deeper cuts to fossil fuel emissions before 2020. They’ve also kept alive the ambition of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, effectively preventing watering down of the current target for no more than 2 degrees of warming.

If the islands are pushy, it’s because they have the most to lose. Sea levels have already risen by about 19 centimeters (7.5 inches) since 1901 and are likely to rise another 26 centimeters to 82 centimeters this century, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said last month after conducting its biggest-ever assessment of climate science.

Biggest Threat

That poses a significant threat to a country like the Maldives, where 80 percent of the land mass is less than 1 meter above sea level, and 42 percent of the population lives within 100 meters of the sea. Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Marshall Islands have similar topographies.

Nauru, another Pacific nation, is facing erosion from rising seas that’s threatening a population that lives mainly along the coast, said Marlene Moses, that country’s envoy and the chairwoman of the 44-member Alliance of Small Island States, or Aosis.

“At less than 1 degree of warming we are seeing consequences far worse than what scientists forecast just a few years ago,” said Moses. “Certainly for some small islands it will mean the difference between adapting to a difficult but manageable life and catastrophe.”

Population Evicted

The Marshall Islands are more vulnerable than most. As many as 1,200 of its 55,000 people have already had to relocate, and some smaller islands have disappeared beneath the waves, said Foreign Minister Tony de Brum. A demographic problem of the same scale in the U.S. would force 7 million people to move.

“We have droughts up north and floods in the south; we have coral bleaching and salinization” of the soil, de Brum said in an interview from Honolulu as he traveled to Lima. “It’s all occurring now. This is not a future prediction. It’s a current problem.”

Aosis punches above its weight in the UN talks partly because all agreements must be reached by consensus. They’re also the human face of the impacts of climate change.

“They’ve historically been such a vocal leader on this that they carry weight in the negotiations,” said Jake Schmidt, who follows the talks for the Natural Resources Defense Council in New York. “Their voice has become even more powerful as the impacts are being felt.”

Draft Documents

With temperatures already 0.8 degrees higher than at the start of the Industrial Revolution, the island states are fighting hardest to contain further warming because each fraction of a degree is a greater threat to their existence than in other counties.

While envoys have endorsed a target to cap warming at 2 degrees, the islands in 2010 secured a concession to have the goal periodically reassessed, with a view to target 1.5 degrees.

Draft documents circulated two days ago by the UN outlining proposed elements of next year’s deal mention the lower temperature, a testament to the ability of the islands to keep alive the more ambitious goal.

While an overabundance of salt water poses the biggest risk to the lowest-lying states, increasing shortages of freshwater are also stretching authorities as rainfall patterns become less predictable.

The islands are “the canary in the coal mine” of climate change, according to Alden Meyer of the Washington-based Union of Concerned Scientists. “They’re on the front line, the ones being hit, and it’s an existential threat.”

Fire and Water

That was thrown into sharp relief last week in the Maldives, known for its single-island luxury resorts. A fire at the nation’s main desalination plant cut off water supplies in Male, the capital, said Ahmed Sareer, the nation’s ambassador to the UN.

“The water crisis in Male further highlights how vulnerable small island states with no natural fresh water sources can be,” Sareer said in Lima. “We are not really seeing the rainfall that we used to get in the past, and therefore we are running out of water.”

Further south, the Seychelles has also faced water scarcity from shorter, more intense rainy seasons, according to its envoy, Ronny Jumeau. The nation’s main reservoir is just 39 percent full now, at a time when it should be brimming.

Other threats come from rising temperatures and increasing amounts of carbon dioxide, which makes the seas more acidic, and threatening coral reefs, he said in an interview in Lima.

“It’s the loss of nurseries for fish. It’s the loss of a diving area for tourism,” Jumeau said. “How do you quantify the loss of an entire reef?”

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Morales in Lima at amorales2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Reed Landberg at landberg@bloomberg.net Jim Efstathiou Jr., Will Wade

Quoting 355. CycloneOz:

On Climate Modeling and Man-Made CO2 ASSUMPTIONS...

Professor Patrick Michaels - Department of Environmental Sciences - University of Virginia

"We put an increase of carbon dioxide in them [models] of 1% per year. It's [actually only] been .49% per year for the last 10 years, .42% for the 10 years before that, and .43% for the 10 years before that. So the models have twice as much green house warming radiation going in them as is known to be happening. It shouldn't shock you that they are predicting more warming than is occurring."


so I guess you are gonna need something really big
like Greenland ice cap sliding into the sea over the extend of a few months
to convince you
or are we at the point where no matter what happens
you are just going to refuse to accept
that something is wrong no matter what


let me know I don't want to move that ice for nothing

364. vis0

Quoting 252. Neapolitan:

Thanks for posting this little opinion piece. I mean, it's silly, arrogant, and demeaning, and it's based on neither evidence, fact, nor logic. But thanks for posting it anyway...

About that whole "planet that is huge" thing: here's a photograph of Earth from just 3.6 billion miles away (or roughly 0.00015% of the diameter of our little Solar System):

pale blue dot

Yeah, in context, I don't think "huge" is the proper adjective here...
my evolution & religious reply::

Huge when one only thinks selfishly and small when one only thinks selflessly.

Its
both, but in the end be it biiiiiiiiiiiiig (imagine a a kid you'd over
stretch your arms to tell others how big something was) or small (my brain), it  (earth) is fragile
as to its most prized content. An animal that can think independently
of its mother and therefore destroy the mother or use that independent
love unconditionally to allow others to enjoy whichever they prefer, be
it to lean towards the selfish or selfless.

If one goes too far in either direction their will be no prized content.

For
now, its the too much pollutants be it indoor and/or outdoor that is
destroying the stable climate biorhythm the planet has taken MANY years
to "fall into" that allowed man to exist be it through nature or a
supreme being.

 If one only thinks in religious terms then, is this how one treats a gift from the heavens.

,peace
Quoting 329. hydrus:

I dig it...Religion and politics all over the blog...Maybe we can talk food again, and then someone will rat me out to the mods for not staying on topic......pffft....


Hopefully it wasn't due to the ice cream recipe you posted? Can't recall the name, but it was the ice cream pie w/ a crunchy pie 'shell'. I've got to say, I made some cherry ice cream, used your idea for the shell, and it was delicious :P

On a weather-related note, there are some impressive precip totals for California. Pedley posted an image w/ 24-hour totals...using the same site, I looked up totals for the last 96 hours. The area northwest of Redding seems to be the jackpot (14.80 in). Can't post the image, but the info is from here, simply used the 'Observed Precipitation' tab.

Source: Digital Light Source/UIG via Getty Images

Eighty percent of the land mass of the Maldives is less than 1 meter above sea level.
Where can I read about the drought of the 800's ?
Quoting Patrap:
Island Nations Are Now Screaming It: Climate Change Will Sink Us
By Alex Morales Dec 10, 2014 8:59 AM CT


There is a representative in the House that thinks Guam is going to tip-over, too.

Alarmism = noise

Rational people don't react to such banter.
Quoting Patrap:

Source: Digital Light Source/UIG via Getty Images

Eighty percent of the land mass of the Maldives is less than 1 meter above sea level.


Islands come and go. Krakatoa blew up and is no longer in existence. Such is the nature of islands. They rise up and they fall back into the ocean.
Forcing's is a made up werd ?

forc·ing

ˈfôrsiNG/

adjective BRIDGE
(of a bid) requiring by convention a response from one's partner , no matter how weak their hand may be.


Man, take a break .


Forcing's About 84,700,000 results (0.33 seconds)

Quoting 368. CycloneOz:



There is a representative in the House that thinks Guam is going to tip-over, too.

Alarmism = noise

Rational people don't react to such banter.


Do you realize how ridiculous you sound?

You are trying to push your political shilling at a site dominated by people who spend a great deal of time researching weather science. If there was anything substantial to your claims, they would be discussing them rather than mocking them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so I guess you are gonna need something really big
like Greenland ice cap sliding into the sea over the extend of a few months
to convince you
or are we at the point where no matter what happens
you are just going to refuse to accept
that something is wrong no matter what


let me know I don't want to move that ice for nothing



Yo Keep. The quote from Professor Michaels illustrates that model-based science involves assumptions. If the assumptions are wrong, the model will be wrong.

Climate science is largely based on modeling. Hundreds of assumptions are made in these models. If even one of them is whacked-out, then the model's output will be whacked-out, too.
pssssst'....


In 1927 a new island, Anak Krakatau, or "Child of Krakatoa", emerged from the caldera formed in 1883 and is the current location of eruptive activity.

Krakatoa, or Krakatau (Indonesian: Krakatau), is a volcanic island situated in the Sunda Strait between the islands of Java and Sumatra in Indonesia. The name is also used for the surrounding island group comprising the remnants of a much larger island of three volcanic peaks which was obliterated in a cataclysmic 1883 eruption, unleashing huge tsunamis (killing more than 36,000 people) and destroying over two-thirds of the island.
Quoting 372. CycloneOz:



Yo Keep. The quote from Professor Michaels illustrates that model-based science involves assumptions. If the assumptions are wrong, the model will be wrong.

Climate science is largely based on modeling. Hundreds of assumptions are made in these models. If even one of them is whacked-out, then the model's output will be whacked-out, too.
true and models have been and will be off but things have moved along much faster then even the models showed

and that will continue to be the case


faster and faster we go
Quoting Patrap:
Forcing's is a made up werd ?

forc·ing

ˈfôrsiNG/

adjective BRIDGE
(of a bid) requiring by convention a response from one's partner , no matter how weak their hand may be.


Man, take a break .


Forcing's About 84,700,000 results (0.33 seconds)



FORCINGS is a made-up word.

I thought Hagupit made landfall yesterday...I guess not..
Quoting 368. CycloneOz:



There is a representative in the House that thinks Guam is going to tip-over, too.

Alarmism = noise

Rational people don't react to such banter.

Sorry about the double post, never used this before.


Do you realize how ridiculous you sound?

You are trying to push your political shilling at a site dominated by people who spend a great deal of time researching weather science. If there was anything substantial to your claims, they would be discussing them rather than mocking them.
Quoting 375. CycloneOz:



FORCINGS is a made-up word.


drop the plural s on the end of word oz u are being tricky and maybe it will be best if ya not try and incite members as much make ur comments regarding your beliefs move along


pssssst'.....

Forcing (mathematics)



For the use of forcing in recursion theory, see Forcing (recursion theory).
In the mathematical discipline of set theory, forcing is a technique invented by Paul Cohen for proving consistency and independence results. It was first used, in 1963, to prove the independence of the axiom of choice and the continuum hypothesis from Zermelo Fraenkel set theory. Forcing was considerably reworked and simplified in the following years, and has since served as a powerful technique both in set theory and in areas of mathematical logic such as recursion theory.
Good Afternoon and wishing everyone on here a safe weekend.

On the sea level rise issue, I don't follow the actual stats on whether there is actual documented rise in all parts of the world but I can only speak to my tiny corner of the world. I have been wade-fishing the same exact spot near Caribelle, Florida (on the Northern Gulf coast of Florida/Hwy 98) for the last 10 years standing in front of one particular house on the same sandbar about 75 yards from shore most weekends from March to September. I fish the rising tides for trout and the falling tides for redfish. The tidal difference over the past several years between low and high have changed a little bit (perhaps a few inches); the low used to be around my ankles and is now around mid-calf and the highs used to be to the waist and now up to the belly button. Not an exact science but this has been my experience at this particular spot.

Would be interested to hear from bloggers who live on the coast or on/near seawalls to see if they have seen any such issues in their neck of the woods as well. My observation could be topography related or possible sea level rise..................Don't know the exact answer but my observation is true unless I have shrunk significantly........
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true and models have been and will be off but things have moved along much faster then even the models showed

and that will continue to be the case


faster and faster we go


Speaking of faster and faster...

The 2015 American muscle car line-up is jaw-dropping. Talk about a carbon footprint! All anyone needs is $50K and one of them can be bought.
Quoting 381. CycloneOz:



Speaking of faster and faster...

The 2015 American muscle car line-up is jaw-dropping. Talk about a carbon footprint! All anyone needs is $50K and one of them can be bought.
I don't own a car oz I use public transportation use too but I got rid of it

if I need one I can rent it for the time needed
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Storm started after 5AM here.... Airport showing .77, CoCoRahs site near me showed .60 (7AM)
Interesting blog on climate change, thought this was a weather blog. The only real way to stop climate change is: can't be done the Earth has been changing forever. If you believe in Global Warming is caused by humans, then their is really little to worry about. 7 billion people and counting on this little planet is the reason for Man Made Global Warming. Until we figure a safe way to reduce the population to about half of what is now their is no hope to fixing Man Made Global Warming.
Quoting 386. NativeSun:

Interesting blog on climate change, thought this was a weather blog. The only real way to stop climate change is: can't be done the Earth has been changing forever. If you believe in Global Warming is caused by humans, then their is really little to worry about. 7 billion people and counting on this little planet is the reason for Man Made Global Warming. Until we figure a safe way to reduce the population to about half of what is now their is no hope to fixing Man Made Global Warming.

Yeah, we should just give up and not even try. Just like we did with smallpox.
Quoting 386. NativeSun:

Interesting blog on climate change, thought this was a weather blog. The only real way to stop climate change is: can't be done the Earth has been changing forever. If you believe in Global Warming is caused by humans, then their is really little to worry about. 7 billion people and counting on this little planet is the reason for Man Made Global Warming. Until we figure a safe way to reduce the population to about half of what is now their is no hope to fixing Man Made Global Warming.

Really? A weather blog? I thought it was a personal message board for a small group of people who live in Florida.
I personally like talking about things that affect the population of the world as a whole.
Parallels between the Californian drought and southern Australia. We've got a 40 year rainfall decline in southwest Australia, and a weaker ~20 year decline in the southeast. It affects the winters storms which have become much weaker and shifted poleward as the main area of baroclinicity has contracted south.

The result is similar. Mass tree mortality, around a 50% increase in the fire season severity, and streamflows which are almost always below average. Crater lakes and cave cores suggest this is probably the driest period in many centuries.

The southeast decline was interrupted by spectacular rainfall during the 2010 to 2012 La Niña events, but since then we've seen a return to below average rainfall.
Quoting 386. NativeSun:

Interesting blog on climate change, thought this was a weather blog. The only real way to stop climate change is: can't be done the Earth has been changing forever. If you believe in Global Warming is caused by humans, then their is really little to worry about. 7 billion people and counting on this little planet is the reason for Man Made Global Warming. Until we figure a safe way to reduce the population to about half of what is now their is no hope to fixing Man Made Global Warming.
Good post, the earth thruout its history has went from extreme warmth to extreme Cold,over and over again, continents bump into each other then move away or make New continents....the earth never stays the same,just ask the Dinosaurs who couldn't outlast the changes etc..we are in ther midst of the next change and foolish humans think they can stop it...its better for humans to adjust to the coming changes..so we don't go..the way of the Dinosaurs too.
Quoting 390. LargoFl:

Good post, the earth thruout its history has went from extreme warmth to extreme Cold,over and over again, continents bump into each other then move away or make New continents....the earth never stays the same,just ask the Dinosaurs who couldn't outlast the changes etc..we are in ther midst of the next change and foolish humans think they can stop it...its better for humans to adjust to the coming changes..so we don't go..the way of the Dinosaurs too.
Actually they couldn't weather the storm of a massive asteroid that hit in what is now the Bay of Campeche. Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: The Dino-Killer That Scientists Laughed At

As far as your half-baked analysis of geologic climate goes: there has never been such a rapid shift in all of geologic time.
Face it, your scale is all screwed up.
IT's the SUN that makes it warm.............................Link
Quoting 392. LargoFl:

IT's the SUN that makes it warm.............................Link
That's typical of some crap. I'm sorry I clicked that trash. It starts out okay and then goes way off base very quickly.
Do me a favor and don't post anymore pseudoscience links. That stinks...it's so riddled with errors that I don't have the time or the inclination to cover it all.
Maybe you should read "Introduction to Climate Change"
Intro to Climate Change
And don't just read the things you want to and extrapolate from that. Read the whole thing. It takes about an hour for me to read it and I wrote it, so it might take a little longer. It is referenced and it's true without being at the nursery school level.
Quoting 337. hydrus:

George W. Bush says that he is committed to fighting global warming.. As a matter of fact, he announced he's sending 20,000 troops to the sun" --David Letterman
Hand-picked troops, right???
Evening ever'body....

Quoting 388. bwtranch:


Really? A weather blog? I thought it was a personal message board for a small group of people who live in Florida.
I personally like talking about things that affect the population of the world as a whole.
+1000
397. jpsb
Quoting 359. Naga5000:



Cato Institute shill. Care to post any actual scientists from those who haven't sold out to political ideology? I believe this is called confirmation bias, Oz. Greenhouse effect deniers are hilarious.
At least Yosemite's not a trickle anymore.