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Tornadoes Rip Through Northern Illinois, Killing 2 and Injuring 20

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 1:28 PM GMT on April 10, 2015

America's worst severe weather outbreak so far in 2015 was Thursday, when a preliminary total of sixteen tornadoes touched down in Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. Many of the tornado reports came from a single long-lived supercell in northern Illinois, about 80 miles northwest of Chicago, that spawned a large wedge-shaped tornado around 7 pm local time. Significant damage was reported near the town of Rochelle, and every structure in the tiny town of Fairdale was reportedly damaged or destroyed. Two people were killed in Fairdale, and twenty were injured.


Figure 1. Rochelle, Illinois tornado near Highways 64 & 251 on April 9, 2015. Image credit: Angie Medernach-Harris.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm (circled in white) that spawned the Rochelle, Illinois, tornado at 6:55 pm CDT on April 9, 2015. The hook echo of the storm lies just northwest of the town, which is marked by a black circle. Image credit: Storm by Weather Underground.


Video 1. Impressive video of the large wedge tornado that hit Rochelle, Illinois on April 9, 2015.

The long-lived supercell that spawned the tornado formed in a nearly ideal location, ahead of a strong cold front plowing across Illinois and just south of a warm front that had moved to the WI/IL border. Some of the worst tornadoes on record have formed near the low pressure found at the intersection of these fronts, known as the “triple point”. Upper-level winds on Thursday were much stronger than on Wednesday, exceeding 100 mph in the midst of a compact jet-stream impulse that was heading into Illinois as the most damaging tornado developed (see Figure 3).


Figure 3.Winds at the jet-stream level (300 mb, or about 30,000 feet) at 0100 GMT Thursday, with icons denoting preliminary reports of tornadoes, severe hail, and severe wind as of late Wednesday night. Image credit: WunderMap.

Preliminary damage assessments put the tornado at EF4 strength with 180 - 200 mph winds, which would make it the first U.S. tornado of 2015 to be rated EF3 or stronger. Even if some homes were swept clean from their foundations, it would not automatically rank the tornado as an EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Damage Scale, though. Unlike the original Fujita scale, EF rankings take into account the strength of a building’s construction. A violent tornado that struck Vilonia, Arkansas, on April 27, 2014, was rated as EF4 despite ripping homes from their foundations. NWS meteorologist John Robinson pointed out in an interview: “. . . If a house that has a foundation built with nuts, bolts, and appropriate-sized washers is swept away, leaving only the concrete foundation, the ‘expected value’ of wind in the Enhanced Fujita Scale is 200 mph, which puts it at the top of the EF4 category, not an EF5. It would have to be an exceptionally well-built house to go over 200 mph and thus achieve an EF5.”

While Thursday’s outbreak of tornadoes arrived relatively early in the season for northern Illinois, the Midwest is no stranger to early-spring twisters. It was on the same date (April 9) in 1953 that a radar in Champaign, IL, observed the first documented hook echo, a feature that soon became a hallmark of tornado detection. And this weekend (April 11-12) marks the 50th anniversary of the Midwest’s extremely violent 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak. A total of 47 twisters killed 261 people, making it the fourth-deadliest outbreak in U.S. records behind only the Tri-State Tornado of 1925 and the Super Outbreaks of 1974 and 2011.



This week’s WunderPoster: The Brocken spectre
Avid mountain climbers might recognize the phenomenon featured in this week’s WunderPoster (Figure 4, right): the ghostly Brocken spectre. You might see it when standing atop a high point, looking down into fog or mist, with the early- or late-day sun behind you. Under these conditions, your shadow may appear against the mist, directly opposite the sun, surrounded by a faint rainbow-colored halo. It can be a startling sight, given that it’s hard to judge your shadow’s size if any nearby landmarks are obscured by the fog or mist. The spectre got its name from a peak named Brocken in Germany’s Harz Mountains. All WunderPosters can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
Kirkland, IL Tornado
Kirkland, IL Tornado
Washington HP Supercell 3
Washington HP Supercell 3
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
This severe storm moving north of Peoria, IL had a tornado warning near sunset - no confirmation yet if there was a touchdown.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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A combination of factors across the northern half of Florida.
The old front is stalled and should start retreating to the north. That along with the sea breeze should really get some storms going later today.
Yesterday the storms really waited until late in the day in some areas.

Hoping I get some down here today.

last night it took awhile for the storms to saturate our dry air but once it did the heavens opened up. e cen fl.
Quoting 503. islander101010:
last night it took awhile for the storms to saturate our dry air but once it did the heavens opened up. e cen fl.


NWS says its possible the Rainy Season is starting. HRRR model blows up another big convective mass this evening.
We got a good soaking last night here in Melbourne with some thunder and lighting. Only 30% percent today but picking up as the week goes on. Bring it! my lawn needs it.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Wouldn't be surprised, a pretty good swath got 1-3 inches today and a few very localized areas got 3-5 in Hillsborough and Polk and parameters are expected to be more impressive later in the forecast period. I'm truthfully surprised to see this in April, it's down right weird but I'm not complaining lol.

507. jpsb
Quoting 504. StormTrackerScott:






I came accross this and thought you might enjoy JB thoughts on a strong el nino this year

poster:I may be wrong but my prediction of a strong El Nino in 2015 still stands

JB:Think you are right Ian. Already better linkage in overall pattern, but this will peak and weaken back toward the enso3.4 centered Modoki event. Look for a major flip to much colder enso areas and off west coast of US in coming 2-3 years. Overall pattern Atlantic, where Gray/Klotzbach AMO metric already turning cold, and the Pacific is similar to late 1950s. The temp drop in the wake of this in 16-17 ( globally) should exceed that of the previous enso events in 06-07 and 09-10.
rain gauge said 1 & 1/2 inches for yesterday. unlike yesterday today the wind is coming off the ocean. because of that it will be a touch cooler today. that could keep a cap on the storms e.cen.fl
Quoting 425. Skyepony:

150 Melon Headed whales have beached themselves in Japan. It's brought about a fear of an impending earthquake as this happened before the devastating earthquake there in 2011, as well as New Zealand's big quake that hit Christchurch the same year & in other places. This correlation has never been proved real, though people are spooked. They also don't know why this particular pod of whales beached.
earthquakes do cause extreme sonic disturbances , but I believe only toothed whales use echolocation, but I cant swear to it...Edit..I just looked and the read does say they are indeed toothed whales. I missed it skimming over. Coffe isnt working yet..:)
Quoting 504. StormTrackerScott:



NWS says its possible the Rainy Season is starting. HRRR model blows up another big convective mass this evening.
Good morning Scott. Rainy season starting in early April.? You have a link.? I would like to see who said that. The actual rain machine does not start that early....Unless Mother Nature is changing things down there.

THE EARLIEST WET SEASON START NOTED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EARLY MAY...EXCEPT THERE WERE A FEW TIMES WHEN THE ONSET OCCURRED
IN APRIL AT STUART. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE HAVING A PATTERN THAT
RESEMBLES THE WET SEASON THIS WEEK...IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN
IT...
AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Scott. Rainy season starting in early April.? You have a link.? I would like to see who said that. The actual rain machine does not start that early....Unless Mother Nature is changing things down there.

THE EARLIEST WET SEASON START NOTED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EARLY MAY...EXCEPT THERE WERE A FEW TIMES WHEN THE ONSET OCCURRED
IN APRIL AT STUART. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE HAVING A PATTERN THAT
RESEMBLES THE WET SEASON THIS WEEK...IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN
IT...
AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.


I agree. The long range pattern (beyond 7 days) does NOT suggest the true rainy season has started.

The true Rainy season would shut down frontal precipitation dropping down into Florida along with any possible high pressure building in from the north for the rest of the season.



Quoting 421. Misanthroptimist:


The number of ways that that is dishonest is fairly impressive considering you included no text.

For starters, you use only one data set. Let's see what some of the other data sets have to say, including the other (more reliable satellite data set):


You chose the only data set that shows what you like...and then you cherry picked time periods to top it off. 2000.05 Really? I forget, was that a Tuesday or a Wednesday? LOL


It's worse than that. It's well known that satellite temperature measurements aren't the greatest since they don't actually measure temperature. Temperature at different levels of the atmosphere is inferred from the measurements, meaning there is always some amount of error.

There was a recent paper published in regards to the methodology used to determine temperature from RSS measurements, since it was becoming increasingly clear that satellite and surface measurements haven't been matching well. It turns out that the correction method used for RSS uses...wait for it...other satellites. It's basically doubling down on any errors and/or biases by only using satellites.

In the paper, they took the RSS data and applied a less idiotic correction method that's used by other satellite data sets. When they did that, low and behold RSS suddenly showed the same trend as everyone else. Good ol' Roy Spencer and his "no warmin' here" crap.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN
IT...AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.


Indeed! Next weekend we have a good shot of seeing much cooler drier air!
Quoting 511. Sfloridacat5:



I agree. The long range pattern (beyond 7 days) does NOT suggest the true rainy season has started.

The true Rainy season would shut down frontal precipitation dropping down into Florida along with any possible high pressure building in from the north for the rest of the season.




Greetings SF5. Yep. The true rain machine starts when the Bermuda High brings the trades in over the Bahama,s. Sea breezes and daytime heating cause small showers on east coast during the morning,( and sometimes nocturnal showers over the stream at night ) while convection starts brewing over the state, held by the breeze until late afternoon, then sea breeze weakens , allowing mature thunderstorms inland to move across the coast into the gulf. There are several rainy season patterns, but that was the most prominent when I lived there. I found that during Nino years ( 82- 83 ) being significant, the backward pattern was occurring more often. You probably know most of this, but with Scott mentioning such an early start, I may as well put in my thoughts..:)
Quoting 513. weatherbro:

IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN
IT...AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.


Indeed! Next weekend we have a good shot of seeing much cooler drier air!
GFS has it getting chilly.
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings SF5. Yep. The true rain machine starts when the Bermuda High brings the trades in over the Bahama,s. Sea breezes and daytime heating cause small showers on east coast during the morning, while convection starts brewing over the state, held by the breeze until late afternoon, then sea breeze weakens , allowing mature thunderstorms inland to move across the coast into the gulf. There are several rainy season patterns, but that was the most prominent when I lived there. I found that during Nino years ( 82- 83 ) being significant, the backward pattern was occurring more often. You probably know most of this, but with Scott mentioning such an early start, I may as well put in my thoughts..:)


Yes, that's why we usually get our thunderstorms late in the day over here on the S.W. coast.

Long range models show a couple decent pushes of dry air/high pressure building into Florida. Models can change, but they are not showing a true rainy season pattern in the next few weeks.

In addition, the earliest the rainy season has ever started is May 5 for Orlando. I know in my area, the rainy season usually doesn't fully kick in until the beginning of June.

Link
Quoting 517. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, that's why we usually get our thunderstorms late in the day over here on the S.W. coast.

Long range models show a couple decent pushes of dry air/high pressure building into Florida. Models can change, but they are not showing a true rainy season pattern in the next few weeks.

In addition, the earliest the rainy season has ever started is May 5 for Orlando. I know in my area, the rainy season usually doesn't fully kick in until the beginning of June.

Link
I moved from S.W.Florida in 2007. The last time I saw a significant early start was in 1995 when it started full swing in early or mid May..They were severe that May.
Quoting 507. jpsb:



I came accross this and thought you might enjoy JB thoughts on a strong el nino this year

poster:I may be wrong but my prediction of a strong El Nino in 2015 still stands

JB:Think you are right Ian. Already better linkage in overall pattern, but this will peak and weaken back toward the enso3.4 centered Modoki event. Look for a major flip to much colder enso areas and off west coast of US in coming 2-3 years. Overall pattern Atlantic, where Gray/Klotzbach AMO metric already turning cold, and the Pacific is similar to late 1950s. The temp drop in the wake of this in 16-17 ( globally) should exceed that of the previous enso events in 06-07 and 09-10.

A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.
522. jpsb
Quoting 512. Xyrus2000:



Good ol' Roy Spencer and his "no warmin' here" crap.


Roy Spencer is University of Alabama Huntsville, UAH. RSS is Remote Sensing System.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1203 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2015 - 12Z SUN APR 19 2015


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
SORTING THE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WENDING THROUGH THE SPLIT FLOW APPARENTLY HAVE
ALL MANNER OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES EAST OF THE ROCKIES FROM DAY 4
ONWARD. THE ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS FROM THE 12Z/11 DATA CYCLE WERE
NOT COMPATIBLE ENOUGH TO BLEND, SO ELECTED TO USE THE STEADIER
NAEFS MEAN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE. THE PATTERN
LOOKS WET--IF NOTHING ELSE--OVER MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH THE GULF
STATES BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE RAINFALL EARLY ON. THERE ARE STILL
A NUMBER OF CLOSED-LOW SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST, UPPING THE
ANTE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THERE BEYOND DAY 5.



CISCO

Strong closed upper lows almost always make weather interesting. This should not be an exception.
Quoting hydrus:
I moved from S.W.Florida in 2007. The last time I saw a significant early start was in 1995 when it started full swing in early or mid May..They were severe that May.


Hopefully it does start early this year.
On average, May is still a rather dry month for Fort Myers.
Then June is a very dramatic start. More dramatic than most areas of the state with over 10" in June.

Last year June was dry here. That really set us up for a dry year in 2014.
On average, we usually only have a 4 month rainy season here.

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71
Quoting 517. Sfloridacat5:


Yes, that's why we usually get our thunderstorms late in the day over here on the S.W. coast.

Long range models show a couple decent pushes of dry air/high pressure building into Florida. Models can change, but they are not showing a true rainy season pattern in the next few weeks.

In addition, the earliest the rainy season has ever started is May 5 for Orlando. I know in my area, the rainy season usually doesn't fully kick in until the beginning of June.

Link


Your kidding right as both GFS & Euro keep rain in the forecast thru the next 11 days. That is why the NWS in Melbourne mentioned the wet season starting as there is a chance that it is here now. Could a front come thru in the long range yes but usually once we lock into this pattern the wet season is usually a go.

Quoting 516. hydrus:
GFS has it getting chilly.


Really? Where not here.



527. jpsb
Quoting 521. ACSeattle:


A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.


September 11, 2010
AccuWeather.com Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi believes there is a significant chance for particularly frigid winters in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 into 2014-2015.

October 16, 2014 NOAA
Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely


NOAA Nov 2013
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
829 am CDT sun Apr 12 2015

..sounding discussion...
The sounding this morning represents a tropical type airmass. The
profile is nearly saturated throughout with precipitable water 1.78 inches...
which is close to the daily maximum in the climatology. Winds are
southerly from the surface to 770 mb and unlike yesterday there is no
longer an elevated inversion. The surface front is diffuse and likely
beginning to advance to the north as a warm front. There is
instability present with 500 j/kg mu cape in the profile and 1300
j/kg forecast cape. Peak wind 100 kts from the west at 175 mb.
Krautmann

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CDT sun Apr 12 2015/

Today...swath of -ra with a few areas of rain and rain showers continued
to move north into the forecast area overnight from the south.
Hrrr shows continued -ra with some embedded heavier showers
through the day.

Overall wet pattern as the southern stream remains active with
impulses enhancing rain chances through the entire forecast
package. A stalled front over the coastal waters will return
north in response to a developing trough in the west Continental U.S.. at
the base of the trough a low pressure center begins to close off
this morning over Puerto Penasco, mex. Deep Gulf moisture remains
with precipitable water values at or above 1.70 inches.

Flash flood guidance averages around 3 inches...up to 4 in some
MS counties. As the west pattern continues...these values will
lower some. Some rain will be heavy at times and get close to
these ffg values in some areas. Confident in rainy pattern...not
as confident as to how much and how quickly rain will fall. Will
hold off on Flash Flood Watch... however that will have to be
considered depending on todays rain. Marginal instability and I
have not noticed lightning overnight. Once the warm front is on
the move and yet another upper impulse moves in from the west...
there is a greater possibility of thunderstorms and rain this afternoon. /Keg/

Long term...active pattern continues Monday all the way into next
weekend. There will be a few breaks between impulses... however
rain chances...mainly rain with embedded thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast all week. One such impulse moves through Monday ahead of
the low closed off per the GFS around Hobbs nm at 18z Monday. WV
imagery will be a good tool this week to pick out and time those
impulses moving through the southern stream ahead of the low
pressure systems moving from west to east. Another trough dives
down through The Rockies middle week closing off a low around Chinle
Arizona around 12z Thursday. Similar to this round... several impulses move
out ahead of the low and keep our rain chances high through
Saturday night. This low looks to be a tad stronger as do the
respective impules thus some areas of heavy rain looks possible.
Some upper support for some enhanced rain areas as some upper
level divergence is evident Thursday. Again...we will have to watch
each consecutive round of rain to gauge the issuance of a Flash
Flood Watch. Regardless... some areas could see heavy rain
throughout the forecast period. /Keg/

JB is still the Chief "Ding-Dong" over @ weatherbell, eh?

: P

Quoting 512. Xyrus2000:



It's worse than that. It's well known that satellite temperature measurements aren't the greatest since they don't actually measure temperature. Temperature at different levels of the atmosphere is inferred from the measurements, meaning there is always some amount of error.

There was a recent paper published in regards to the methodology used to determine temperature from RSS measurements, since it was becoming increasingly clear that satellite and surface measurements haven't been matching well. It turns out that the correction method used for RSS uses...wait for it...other satellites. It's basically doubling down on any errors and/or biases by only using satellites.

In the paper, they took the RSS data and applied a less idiotic correction method that's used by other satellite data sets. When they did that, low and behold RSS suddenly showed the same trend as everyone else. Good ol' Roy Spencer and his "no warmin' here" crap.

Spencer is very odd, imo. His own UAH does a reasonably good job with temperature. He and his partner at UAH have figured out one possible reason why RSS is less accurate. Yet Spencer promotes the use of RSS to show less warming. I don't understand how that works internally. I couldn't knowingly promote poor or false or partial data to support my POV. I don't know how anyone can. It doesn't make sense to me.
Quoting 451. 882MB:

Tornado warnings in Florida, definitely El Nino type pattern. If this anticipated ''Super El Nino" evolves, 2015/2016 winter season, could be quite a story for Florida. Just look at the Gulf of Mexico satellite, you don't see that during La Nina.






I highly doubt we will have a super Nino.
Quoting 527. jpsb:

Bastardi in context.

EDIT: If Bastardi predicted a cold winter globally...he missed badly. If his prediction was only for the US, then he was half right at least.

534. JRRP
NAO will be negative for a long time
Quoting 526. StormTrackerScott:



Really? Where not here.




It may get colder than normal for some folks down there. The GFS is running, so this is from the 06Z run...

Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashed

Excerpt:

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is a 10-year initiative that launched in 2010, and it’s designed to enhance scientists’ ability to anticipate rapid fluctuations in track and intensity for tropical cyclones, which routinely rank among the costliest and deadliest storms on Earth. In its first five years, HFIP has produced a state-of-the-art hurricane forecast model that’s helped to improve hurricane forecast accuracy by 20 percent since 2010, among other achievements. That’s amazing progress, essentially making a five-day forecast as accurate as a two-day forecast was just 10 years ago.

Now, the program is apparently a victim of its own success. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cut the program’s base funding for the current fiscal year by about two-thirds, to $4.8 million from $13 million, in an attempt to refocus on “immediate, key needs” rather than longer-term goals.* Because of the cut, NOAA estimates that it will have to scuttle a target to further double the accuracy of two-day intensity forecasts from current levels over the next three to four years.
Quoting 521. ACSeattle:


A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.
Quoting 521. ACSeattle:


A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.
The thing about JB's research, is he uses past events to help him with his current forecast.
Quoting 521. ACSeattle:


A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.
A long time ago some forecasters used past events to help them forecast their current forecast, and were right more then they were wrong. Just the opposite is happening in modern day forecast with everyone relying on long range models for their forecast. You need to do a little research of the past weather patterns to help see what may happen in the future weather and climate wise.
Quoting 531. Misanthroptimist:


Spencer is very odd, imo. His own UAH does a reasonably good job with temperature. He and his partner at UAH have figured out one possible reason why RSS is less accurate. Yet Spencer promotes the use of RSS to show less warming. I don't understand how that works internally. I couldn't knowingly promote poor or false or partial data to support my POV. I don't know how anyone can. It doesn't make sense to me.

Boy, you just stated my thoughts about the guy in a nutshell. He may be credentialed, but I just can't respect him as a scientist or as an academic, because he doesn't act as a scientist or an academic should. I've known scientists who've held on to their hypotheses throughout their research (sometimes too long), but if the data doesn't support their own hypotheses and views, they disregard them and move on. That's how it's supposed to be.
an old forecaster in orlando used to say 90f is the magic sparkplug for thunderstorm activity. by the end of may it should be on.
Quoting 538. NativeSun:
The thing about JB's research, is he uses past events to help him with his current forecast. A long time ago some forecasters used past events to help them forecast their current forecast, and were right more then they were wrong. Just the opposite is happening in modern day forecast with everyone relying on long range models for their forecast. You need to do a little research of the past weather patterns to help see what may happen in the future weather and climate wise.

Weather isn't climate...and vice versa. Physics always has the last word. Currently, physics says the Earth's climate is going to continue to warm for quite some time into the future.

The weather is anyone's guess.
Quoting 535. Patrap:

(snip)

Portions of Louisiana have gotten a decent amount of rain in the last couple of days. Looks like we can expect a lot more...

Quoting 537. nrtiwlnvragn:

Meteorologists Steaming After Hurricane Research Funding Is Slashed

Excerpt:

The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program is a 10-year initiative that launched in 2010, and it’s designed to enhance scientists’ ability to anticipate rapid fluctuations in track and intensity for tropical cyclones, which routinely rank among the costliest and deadliest storms on Earth. In its first five years, HFIP has produced a state-of-the-art hurricane forecast model that’s helped to improve hurricane forecast accuracy by 20 percent since 2010, among other achievements. That’s amazing progress, essentially making a five-day forecast as accurate as a two-day forecast was just 10 years ago.

Now, the program is apparently a victim of its own success. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration cut the program’s base funding for the current fiscal year by about two-thirds, to $4.8 million from $13 million, in an attempt to refocus on “immediate, key needs” rather than longer-term goals.* Because of the cut, NOAA estimates that it will have to scuttle a target to further double the accuracy of two-day intensity forecasts from current levels over the next three to four years.
May I ask what are those key needs NOAA is talking about?

Now this is what you call a population boom!



Brian McNoldy @BMcNoldy
Follow
Dangerous combination: huge population growth & minimal hurricane landfalls in #Miami lately. @UMiamiRSMAS
2:35 PM - 18 Jun 2014 Miami, FL, United States

While this is true about the statistics, I sure hope that people in hurricane prone areas, especially those on this blog have not become complacent. With the start of hurricane season just less than 2 months away I hope you all have a plan in place and the supplies you'll need to carry you before, through, and after the storm.
Indeed, some progs show right thru to Saturday.

We're in that Spring Flood situ, like may 3rd 78' or Spring 95'.

Quoting 536. hydrus:
It may get colder than normal for some folks down there. The GFS is running, so this is from the 06Z run...



The red flag as I have said is the 26 out of 31 days in March being 85 to 90 and dominated by a SE Ridge similar to what one would exoect in April. What we are seeing now in April is what we would normally begin to see in May. Also remember there hardly was a Winter Season here in C & S FL this year. It could be that we have "POSSIBLY" tansitioned into the Wet Season. Well see if we have another big front is it possible yes but it itn doesn't this would beat the record start to the Wet on by 3 weeks. Impressive if this was to pan out as the models do suggest it just look at both the Euro & GFS atleast the next 11 to 12 days will see rain everyday after that well see how it goes.
If this is the rainy seaon beginning in FL then you can thank this split flow pattern that I brought up 11 days ago and Doc Jeff Masters as well did a Blog about this split flow set up which is a prototype of El-Nino. I don't see an end to this pattern across FL even the GFS & Euro esembles don't suggest it. So this could be the earliest transition to the wet season ever beating the old record possibly by 3 weeks.

Quoting 544. Patrap:
Indeed, some progs show right thru to Saturday.

We're in that Spring Flood situ, like may 3rd 78' or Spring 95'.



I've never seen a set up quite like this before and there is no end in sight. Some seem to think there is but the models do NOT suggest it all. From SE Texas to FL is in for one heck of pattern the next several weeks.

25 Incredible Pictures from Siberia, the coldest inhabitable place on Earth:

Siberia, Russia generally makes you think of gulags and horrible cold winters. Thanks to these pictures we now know that the region also has a very beautiful side.


Countryside road by Vladislav Bezrukov


Altai mountains, Siberia, Russia by Olga Oslina


Pink tulips by Olga Oslina


Reindeers and children by Irina Kazanskaya


Sunset / Novosibirsk / Siberia / 13.10.2011 by Mikhail Koninin
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Sunday 12 April 2015




Condition:Sunny
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:62.2°F
Nwxt weekend GFS. Insane looking pattern. Houston to New Orleans to Pensacola to Orlando may challenge some April rainfall records. I said 2 weeks ago that Orlando would see its wettest April since 1991 & 1992 and it appears to be happening.

543. GTstormChaserCaleb

May I ask what are those key needs NOAA is talking about?



Haven't seen anything that details what those are.
Quoting 538. NativeSun:

Quoting 521. ACSeattle:


A long time ago, the "weather guy" on a Savannah station dressed up in a boat captain's suit, discussed the day's weather with a (puppet) pelican, and got the forcast from a clam (also a puppet). Clearly a class act. I doubt that JB got his forecast from a clam, but I'm sure it came from an equally dark place.
The thing about JB's research, is he uses past events to help him with his current forecast. A long time ago some forecasters used past events to help them forecast their current forecast, and were right more then they were wrong. Just the opposite is happening in modern day forecast with everyone relying on long range models for their forecast. You need to do a little research of the past weather patterns to help see what may happen in the future weather and climate wise.

Um, ok....and when JB is dumpster diving for "analog years", what constitutes an analog to a year with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm? A long time ago, someone observed that you never step into the same river twice. One more thing...how did ol' JB do on predicting the record west coast warmth this past winter?
Quoting 550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EDT Sunday 12 April 2015




Condition:Sunny
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:62.2°F

Those temperatures are not bad KEEP, perfect weather to go outside and have a picnic and barbeque.
Quoting 551. StormTrackerScott:

Nwxt weekend GFS. Insane looking pattern. Houston to New Orleans to Pensacola to Orlando may challenge some April rainfall records. I said 2 weeks ago that Orlando would see its wettest April since 1991 & 1992 and it appears to be happening.



Well stop saying things like that. Some rain is nice and necessary, but I'm too old and lazy to swim. :-)
forecasted afternoon highs at 5 pm as per 12z nam

Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Those temperatures are not bad KEEP, perfect weather to go outside and have a picnic and barbeque.
we may each 70 tomorrow before afternoon showers and thunder showers moves in after 3 pm
Nice rain and thunderstorm going on now here in Melbourne.

Headed back towards the 80's and above..... no rain in sight...
Should be warming fast now.
Quoting 559. PedleyCA:


Headed back towards the 80's and above..... to rain in sight...
I was just checking on the snow cover in the mountains down there looks pretty bleak unless ya like it like that but I get a feeling most would like to see lots of snow in the hills but there is next to nothing there instead

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Nwxt weekend GFS. Insane looking pattern. Houston to New Orleans to Pensacola to Orlando may challenge some April rainfall records. I said 2 weeks ago that Orlando would see its wettest April since 1991 & 1992 and it appears to be happening.



This is a rainy pattern, especially across areas of the middle Gulf Coast, but it isn't a "rainy season" pattern.
This heavy rain extending from Texas to Florida is not a normal pattern we would see during the summer months.

Rain doesn't equate to a "Florida rainy season" setup.

Quoting 539. LAbonbon:


Boy, you just stated my thoughts about the guy in a nutshell. He may be credentialed, but I just can't respect him as a scientist or as an academic, because he doesn't act as a scientist or an academic should. I've known scientists who've held on to their hypotheses throughout their research (sometimes too long), but if the data doesn't support their own hypotheses and views, they disregard them and move on. That's how it's supposed to be.
I think something else is at play with him -- sometimes notoriety is more important to some people than truthfulness or accuracy. My guess is that he, and some other contrary scientists, more enjoy the notoriety of contrariness than the possible recognition of their support for a well-proved hypothesis, or even the formulation of such a hypothesis. Opposition to a mainstream trend generally produces more visibility than joining it.
Models can and do change, but the GFS is showing a strong high pressure building into the middle Gulf Coast and Florida in about 12 days.
This does not happen during the "rainy season."
Just have to wait and see how the runs change over time.



Good Sunday evening, folks.
Alerts for Mexico because of torrential rains:
AVISO: LLUVIA FUERTE EN CHIHUAHUA Y TAMAULIPAS, LLUVIA EN SONORA, DURANGO, ZACATECAS, COAHUILA, NUEVO LEON Y VERACRUZ.





Source.


Televisa Guadalajara %u200F@TelevisaGDL 1 Min
#Enterate Frente frio 45 provoca lluvias muy fuertes Chihuahua, Coahuila, NL y Tamaulipas. http://ow.ly/LuX5W
Quoting 564. Sfloridacat5:

Models can and do change, but the GFS is showing a strong high pressure building into the middle Gulf Coast and Florida in about 12 days.
This does not happen during the "rainy season."
Just have to wait and see how the runs change over time.




12 days is too far out for any consideration have to wait see it at 144hr before even considering the outlook
hr 120 now then maybe we got something
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


This is a rainy pattern, especially across areas of the middle Gulf Coast, but it isn't a "rainy season" pattern.
This heavy rain extending from Texas to Florida is not a normal pattern we would see during the summer months.

Rain doesn't equate to a "Florida rainy season" setup.



Indeed. But, climatologically speaking, we're not very far off from the rainy season starting. It wouldn't surprise me by late-May for our daily boomers to get going. They seem to start earlier in El Nino years.
Quoting 567. CybrTeddy:



Indeed. But, climatologically speaking, we're not very far off from the rainy season starting. It wouldn't surprise me by late-May for our daily boomers to get going. They seem to start earlier in El Nino years.
seems too look like afternoon fireworks are about to pop

sea breeze interacting with upper level flow from west

Quoting 553. ACSeattle:


Um, ok....and when JB is dumpster diving for "analog years", what constitutes an analog to a year with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm? A long time ago, someone observed that you never step into the same river twice. One more thing...how did ol' JB do on predicting the record west coast warmth this past winter?


Umm... since when was CO2 concentration of any significant use in operational real-time forecasting?
Heavy rain for the Gulf States... brace yourselves!
Up to 4" by midweek for some areas in the Lower Mississippi Valley

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Indeed. But, climatologically speaking, we're not very far off from the rainy season starting. It wouldn't surprise me by late-May for our daily boomers to get going. They seem to start earlier in El Nino years.


Definitely "daily boomers."
Temperatures are up along with the dewpoints. Conditions are favorable for sea breeze interactions right now.

But I do not believe the pattern will stick for the rest of the season. The long range models (which of course can be wrong) do not support it.
The models support at least a couple more shots of dry continental air down into Florida before the month is over.

I would love to be wrong and see daily thunderstorms firing off everyday until the dry season kick back in sometime in October. I just don't see it happening, especially across my area of the state.


Nothing catastrophic --- just to point out that "unseasonal"/"unseasonable" is likely becoming the adjective of the season ... Someone should start to count, lol.

Flooding from rainfall closes Dead Sea road
Water submerges highways as streams swell, authorities close hiking routes as safety precaution
By Stuart Winer April 12, 2015, 3:45 pm
Heavy rainfall closed a road near the Dead Sea on Sunday as unseasonable downpours and stormy conditions continued to lash much of Israel over a wet weekend. ...
With temperatures already at an 18-year low, forecasts called for more cold and rain across most of Israel on Sunday, reaching all the way to the Negev desert in the south and possibly even the port city of Eilat at the southern tip of the country. ...


Edit: Okay, "unusual" may rival "unseasonal" in the months to come ..._
Disruptive Rain for Japan to Start the Week
AW, By Adam Douty, Meteorologist, April 12, 2015; 1:47 PM ET
Several rounds of rain will cross Japan early this week, leading to the threat of flooding in southern parts of the country.
Cities from Nagoya to Tokyo will be at the greatest risk for heavy rainfall as an unusually strong trough of low pressure pulls moisture northward from the Philippines Sea. ...
Quoting Webberweather53:


Umm... since when was CO2 concentration of any significant use in operational real-time forecasting?
Umm...ACSeattle never stated that. What ACSeattle asked is which year JB could use for an analog year when the rapidly rising amount of heat-trapping CO2 in the atmosphere (four millions tonnes per hour) means that there really *are* no analog years. IOW, the new atmosphere we've made is unlike anything anyone alive has ever witnessed, so trying to use past years as the basis for predicting what's going to happen in the future is in large part rather pointless.
poppers all over eastern half of fla

Quoting 569. Webberweather53:



Umm... since when was CO2 concentration of any significant use in operational real-time forecasting?

My comment was in response to the claim that in 2010, JB predicted a cold '14-'15 winter. Not exactly an example of "operational real-time forecasting".
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Nwxt weekend GFS. Insane looking pattern. Houston to New Orleans to Pensacola to Orlando may challenge some April rainfall records. I said 2 weeks ago that Orlando would see its wettest April since 1991 & 1992 and it appears to be happening.



When you see a closed trough carve out over or just below Japan(like what's about to happen), it's safe to say the beginning of the rainy season won't start for awhile! A Japanese trough teleconnects 6-10 days later to an East trough(give or take a day or two)! We had ridging there for awhile(hence the warmth so far) that has now finally broken down.

Quoting 573. Neapolitan:

Umm...ACSeattle never stated that. What ACSeattle asked is which year JB could use for an analog year when the rapidly rising amount of heat-trapping CO2 in the atmosphere (four millions tonnes per hour) means that there really *are* no analog years. IOW, the new atmosphere we've made is unlike anything anyone alive has ever witnessed, so trying to use past years as the basis for predicting what's going to happen in the future is in large part rather pointless.


Lol, ok "it's not about what you say, it's about how you say it" :) ... Weather & climate are two entirely different matters we are of course talking about weather forecasting here), you can have differing climatic base states & similarities will often show in some, way, shape, or form, irregardless of the background in the relatively shorter term. The 2nd bold statement gave me a good laugh, analog years aren't that hard to find if you know where, when, & even if decide to look @ all, (which I'm sure you haven't)... :) Let's look @ few quick examples.


2015 hurricane season analogs post 1950 SSTs (1994 & 2014 2x weighted)




In fact, last 2 winters have actually followed the MEI+ONI rankings virtually to script, there's nothing unusual about what's been observed in that sense...
Quoting 575. ACSeattle:


My comment was in response to the claim that in 2010, JB predicted a cold '14-'15 winter. Not exactly an example of "operational real-time forecasting".


The "analog years" statement you're referencing refers directly to operational forecasting that Joe B deals with, making the excuse that due to a lower frequency influence on the climate from CO2 that shorter-term operational analogs aren't viable is misleading...
Oh yeeaaahhhh! Nothing like FL. summertime like afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms, especially pinned up against the coastline. West Coast seabreeze was stronger today.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

GAZ097-105>113-121945-
WHEELER GA-DODGE GA-MONTGOMERY GA-LAURENS GA-TOOMBS GA-TELFAIR GA-
CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
252 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN WHEELER...DODGE...
MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...TOOMBS...TELFAIR...CRISP.. .WILCOX...DOOLY AND
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...IN AN AREA EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CORDELE TO UNADILLA TO HAWKINSVILLE TO DUBLIN
TO VIDALIA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 5 MPH. ISOLATED
AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
WHEELER...DODGE...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...TOOMBS.. .TELFAIR...CRISP...
WILCOX...DOOLY AND PULASKI COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND
DUBLIN...CORDELE...MCRAE...EASTMAN...HAWKINSVILLE ...LYONS...VIENNA...
ABBEVILLE...ALAMO...MOUNT VERNON...PLANT HATCH...VIDALIA...
UNADILLA...HELENA...EAST DUBLIN...CHESTER...LUMBER CITY...ROCHELLE...
GLENWOOD AND MILAN.

ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

LAT...LON 3185 8318 3182 8385 3185 8394 3216 8403
3229 8390 3229 8362 3240 8352 3227 8335
3243 8315 3251 8318 3255 8290 3249 8264
3231 8273 3235 8241 3232 8224 3217 8218
3191 8223 3196 8257 3178 8287
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 190DEG 6KT 3214 8386 3213 8235

$$
Quoting 576. weatherbro:



When you see a closed trough carve out over or just below Japan(like what's about to happen), it's safe to say the beginning of the rainy season won't start for awhile! A Japanese trough teleconnects 6-10 days later to an East trough(give or take a day or two)! We had ridging there for awhile(hence the warmth so far) that has now finally broken down.


Do you have a source that claims this is the case? I think more of what we are going to see is an active subtropical jet stream. I'll be really surprise to see us dry out anytime soon, given the El Nino teleconnection.
Quoting 573. Neapolitan:

Umm...ACSeattle never stated that. What ACSeattle asked is which year JB could use for an analog year when the rapidly rising amount of heat-trapping CO2 in the atmosphere (four millions tonnes per hour) means that there really *are* no analog years. IOW, the new atmosphere we've made is unlike anything anyone alive has ever witnessed, so trying to use past years as the basis for predicting what's going to happen in the future is in large part rather pointless.


401.52 Parts per million, and rising.

Atmospheric CO2 for March 2015

Simple really CO2.ORG.
Or CO2.NOW
Quoting Webberweather53:


Lol, ok "it's not about what you say, it's about how you say it" :) ... Weather & climate are two entirely different matters we are of course talking about weather forecasting here), you can have differing climatic base states & similarities will often show in some, way, shape, or form, irregardless of the background in the relatively shorter term. The 2nd bold statement gave me a good laugh, analog years aren't that hard to find if you know where, when, & even if decide to look @ all, (which I'm sure you haven't)... :) Let's look @ few quick examples.


2015 hurricane season analogs post 1950 SSTs (1994 & 2014 2x weighted)




In fact, last 2 winters have actually followed the MEI+ONI rankings virtually to script, there's nothing unusual about what's been observed in that sense...
So, you don't wish to address my primary comment? That is, that nobody stated that CO2 concentration was of "...significant use in operational real-time forecasting"? Fair enough; you don't have to, though it would have been nice. But since the original comments in this thread were about JB's utter lack of long-term forecasting ability, I'll add these further exhibits:

--On September 10, 2010, JB predicted a monster La Nina had started that would see years of ultra frigid Northern hemisphere winters worldwide, which would prove global warming theory false.

--On April 10, 2012, JB stated that global temperatures would see a "rapid drop to even lower than" 2011, and that those global temps were signs that "...the jagged retreat is underway overall"

Winter of 2010-2011 was the 16th warmest on record.
Winter of 2011-2012 was the 33rd warmest on record.
Winter of 2012-2013 was the 12th warmest on record.
Winter of 2013-2014 was the 10th warmest on record.
Winter of 2014-2015 was the warmest on record.

Yeah, that is some "jagged retreat". ;-)

Thus, the original point still stands: while Bastardi may do fine with short-term weather forecasting, his track record on near-term and long-term climate is laughably bad, and should be used for entertainment purposes only. Those who follow him do so at their own risk...
Quoting 583. Neapolitan:

So, you don't wish to address my primary comment? That is, that nobody stated that CO2 concentration was of "...significant use in operational real-time forecasting"? Fair enough; you don't have to, though it would have been nice. But since the original comments in this thread were about JB's utter lack of long-term forecasting ability, I'll add these further exhibits:

--On September 10, 2010, JB predicted a monster La Nina had started that would see years of ultra frigid Northern hemisphere winters worldwide, which would prove global warming theory false.

--On April 10, 2012, JB stated that global temperatures would see a "rapid drop to even lower than" 2011, and that those global temps were signs that "...the jagged retreat is underway overall"

Winter of 2010-2011 was the 16th warmest on record.
Winter of 2011-2012 was the 33rd warmest on record.
Winter of 2012-2013 was the 12th warmest on record.
Winter of 2013-2014 was the 10th warmest on record.
Winter of 2014-2015 was the warmest on record.

Yeah, that is some "jagged retreat". ;-)

Thus, the original point still stands: while Bastardi may do fine with short-term weather forecasting, his track record on near-term and long-term climate is laughably bad, and should be used for entertainment purposes only. Those who follow him do so at their own risk...


I actually did, & in case you missed the first sentence of my comment... perhaps I should spell it out for you. The blogger didn't explicitly say the statement that CO2 is an integral part of operational forecasting, but if you actually attempted to use context clues & some common sense...

when JB is dumpster diving for "analog years", what constitutes an analog to a year with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm?
you would quickly see that upon putting 2 & 2 together, since Joe Bastardi is an operational forecaster that regularly uses historical analogs, this is statement making a direct reference between CO2 & real-time/operational forecasting (whether you or anyone else realize that or not is another matter)...

BTW, I do appreciate the good laugh in your first response, the "there really *are* no analog years" comment was pure gold...
With the Fairdale Tornado still on topic: Not sure whether the video below was already posted. Worth watching!

Birth of Fairdale IL Tornado - April 9 2015:


Aerial video: This is the path of the tornado from north east of Fairdale IL to 1 mile north east of Franklin Grove.
Quoting 574. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

poppers all over eastern half of fla


Probably wind farms.
;)
Quoting 571. Sfloridacat5:



Definitely "daily boomers."
Temperatures are up along with the dewpoints. Conditions are favorable for sea breeze interactions right now.

But I do not believe the pattern will stick for the rest of the season. The long range models (which of course can be wrong) do not support it.
The models support at least a couple more shots of dry continental air down into Florida before the month is over.

I would love to be wrong and see daily thunderstorms firing off everyday until the dry season kick back in sometime in October. I just don't see it happening, especially across my area of the state.





Well naturally I would think we would have a few more frontal passages, but keep in mind, the spring hasn't been "normal" and long term guidance is both lower resolution and heavily leans on climatology influencing it's forecasts. There's a reason the GFS often spins up tropical cyclones into Tampa in June and October all the time and spring up tropical cyclones into New Orleans and Miami in September and August all the time. It's climatology influenced heavily with long term outlooks.

With that said, yes model guidance does bring a couple more fronts in with some drier weather, and while that would be far from surprising, I also wouldn't be surprised if models will back off that solution and we stay in the heat and humidity.
I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but here's the track of the Rochelle/Fairdale tornado from an aerial perspective. Best viewed at 2x normal speed. You can see at least one satellite tornado and how the main wedge changed in shape and direction.

EDIT: Just saw barbamz linked to it. Definitely check it out.

Quoting 562. Sfloridacat5:



This is a rainy pattern, especially across areas of the middle Gulf Coast, but it isn't a "rainy season" pattern.
This heavy rain extending from Texas to Florida is not a normal pattern we would see during the summer months.

Rain doesn't equate to a "Florida rainy season" setup.




Actually stalled fronts along the gulf coast are quite common in the summer, and I've seen plenty of stalled fronts even in North Central Florida in the summer. Also the showers and thunderstorms in the peninsula haven't been due to the front, but simply heat, humidity and sea breezes. In fact the pressure pattern indeed does resemble a summer rainy season pattern for Florida. Deep moisture is flowing around the west side of the ridge up from the tropics just like summer, the sun does the rest to generate the instability and sea breezes.

Keep in mind that weather pattern doesn't have to occur within it's official season to be the same thing, but meteorology speaking, the pressure pattern and everything else makes it not a whole lot different than a summer pattern. Sure the upper level winds are very strong out of the west, but that happens plenty of times in the summer too. Now this doesn't mean the rainy season itself has a arrived, it's just an unusual spring pattern that closely resembles the impact of the summer rainy season. However being that it's still April, I'm sure they'll be breaks in it with some dry spells.

With that said though, with such a moist and active sea breeze pattern starting this early, and with ocean temps around Florida as warm as they are for so early, I suspect that while some dry spells will probably arrive, the moisture and rain chances will return, and overall April and May will possibly end up being wetter this year than usual as a result, and I sure won't be complaining if that's the case.
Quoting 547. StormTrackerScott:

If this is the rainy seaon beginning in FL then you can thank this split flow pattern that I brought up 11 days ago and Doc Jeff Masters as well did a Blog about this split flow set up which is a prototype of El-Nino. I don't see an end to this pattern across FL even the GFS & Euro esembles don't suggest it. So this could be the earliest transition to the wet season ever beating the old record possibly by 3 weeks.




Yeah I've been monitoring it at as well, we'll see how it plays out, but it could be interesting. I just hope model guidance ends up staying active, I hate dry spells.
The worst predictions i have ever read was the ones on this site in 2005 that major hurricanes would destroy the gulf coasts in the coming years.That the ice caps would be gone by now 2014 they said wildfires would be worst ever now near record lows tornadoes would be more also record lows last three years.No more major snows in northeast and Florida would become like the desert southwest from lack of rain.The only thing more entertaining on this site is when you guys talk about ufo's!
I chased this wedge tornado with a friend of mine! In this clip, we hydroplaned while chasing. This was an intense chase!! Hail all over the road, huge wedge tornado tearing across the landscape. Just amazing! - VIDEO
Quoting 592. help4u:

The worst predictions i have ever read was the ones on this site in 2005 that major hurricanes would destroy the gulf coasts in the coming years.That the ice caps would be gone by now 2014 they said wildfires would be worst ever now near record lows tornadoes would be more also record lows last three years.No more major snows in northeast and Florida would become like the desert southwest from lack of rain.The only thing more entertaining on this site is when you guys talk about ufo's!
as for the ice
check back with me on that come sept 10 or so
we shall see where that stands
bring a boat cause u will be able to sail from Canada to Russia in near complete ice free arctic by sept
maybe
that's only 5 months away I am sure you will be around to see it
as for the gulf coast and being destroyed again check back in sept
you may be in for a surprise and fla too something about mom giving the governor some kind of stupid look on his face and not that normal look like now
Quoting 593. StormyPleasures:

I chased this wedge tornado with a friend of mine! In this clip, we hydroplaned while chasing. This was an intense chase!! Hail all over the road, huge wedge tornado tearing across the landscape. Just amazing! - VIDEO
is that you Charles good too see ya if it is good too see ya if its not
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but here's the track of the Rochelle/Fairdale tornado from an aerial perspective. Best viewed at 2x normal speed. You can see at least one satellite tornado and how the main wedge changed in shape and direction.

EDIT: Just saw barbamz linked to it. Definitely check it out.



Has a final rating been decided?
Quoting 592. help4u:

The worst predictions i have ever read was the ones on this site in 2005 that major hurricanes would destroy the gulf coasts in the coming years.That the ice caps would be gone by now 2014 they said wildfires would be worst ever now near record lows tornadoes would be more also record lows last three years.No more major snows in northeast and Florida would become like the desert southwest from lack of rain.The only thing more entertaining on this site is when you guys talk about ufo's!


care to provide any links? that would be interesting to say the least.
Quoting 596. CybrTeddy:



Has a final rating been decided?

I don't know of any plans to change the 180-200 mph EF4 rating.
Quoting 592. help4u:

The worst predictions i have ever read was the ones on this site in 2005 that major hurricanes would destroy the gulf coasts in the coming years.That the ice caps would be gone by now 2014 they said wildfires would be worst ever now near record lows tornadoes would be more also record lows last three years.No more major snows in northeast and Florida would become like the desert southwest from lack of rain.The only thing more entertaining on this site is when you guys talk about ufo's!

Any evidence that such "predictions" were made here? Thanks in advance.
Quoting 596. CybrTeddy:



Has a final rating been decided?
think EF4 last I heard

I thought strong EF3 myself the day it happened
How's the weather KOTG? Cool morning here in the 20s... Afternoons in the 40's.

Also wondering if PED got more rain?

Quoting 577. Webberweather53:



Lol, ok "it's not about what you say, it's about how you say it" :) ...


No one knows this better than me. Trust me, Eric. XD
Quoting 600. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

think EF4 last I heard

I thought strong EF3 myself the day it happened



The rating's still preliminary. I posted a new blog about it.


Link
Quoting 601. Dakster:

How's the weather KOTG? Cool morning here in the 20s... Afternoons in the 40's.

Also wondering if PED got more rain?
great day still is hit 64 for a high low tonight mid 40's now back down to 60 no wind bright blue clear sky tomorrow same till late afternoon when showers and thundershowers roll in with highs topping 70 or just over before the clouds roll in after 2 pm
Quoting 592. help4u:

The worst predictions i have ever read was the ones on this site in 2005 that major hurricanes would destroy the gulf coasts in the coming years.That the ice caps would be gone by now 2014 they said wildfires would be worst ever now near record lows tornadoes would be more also record lows last three years.No more major snows in northeast and Florida would become like the desert southwest from lack of rain.The only thing more entertaining on this site is when you guys talk about ufo's!

Best not believe too much in predictions, just keep them old eyes open and remember there is no rumour in the truth.
Then again coming years are always a coming, maybe a bit faster than some would like.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but here's the track of the Rochelle/Fairdale tornado from an aerial perspective. Best viewed at 2x normal speed. You can see at least one satellite tornado and how the main wedge changed in shape and direction.

EDIT: Just saw barbamz linked to it. Definitely check it out.

Nice video, though it threw me off for a minute until I realized the plane was flying in the direction opposite to that in which the tornado moved--that is, the plane moved NE to SW, while the twister's path was (obviously) SW to NE. One thing's for sure: had the tornado's path been 15 miles farther north, it would have torn all the way through the heavily-populated city of Rockford--and just four miles south would have devastated much of the larger town of Rochelle. IOW: it could have been a lot worse...
Quoting 601. Dakster:

How's the weather KOTG? Cool morning here in the 20s... Afternoons in the 40's.

Also wondering if PED got more rain?


You Dreaming there buddy...lol
Quoting 607. PedleyCA:



You Dreaming there buddy...lol

I was reading today, that between the Almond plantations, Nestle, and Cows, they use up to 80% of the water available in CA.
Seems like a pretty simple solution to the water problems there, if that's true.
Quoting 607. PedleyCA:



You Dreaming there buddy...lol


I dream big as they say...
Quoting 553. ACSeattle:


Um, ok....and when JB is dumpster diving for "analog years", what constitutes an analog to a year with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 ppm? A long time ago, someone observed that you never step into the same river twice. One more thing...how did ol' JB do on predicting the record west coast warmth this past winter?
Actually he did not do to well, but he nailed the Northeast cold and this upcoming Nino.
Quoting 608. pottery:


I was reading today, that between the Almond plantations, Nestle, and Cows, they use up to 80% of the water available in CA.
Seems like a pretty simple solution to the water problems there, if that's true.


Stopping the agriculture in California will cause global food prices to soar though. It isn't that easy. Thought of that before. Just shut down the agricultural users.

At least cow could potentially be shipped. I was in a Uhaul and stuck behind a truck hauling a bunch of cows - WOW to the smell is all I can say. I couldn't imagine a trainload of them.
Quoting 609. Dakster:



I dream big as they say...


Dream BIGGER, the last was .04 on 4/8 ..... not looking good...
Quoting 575. ACSeattle:


My comment was in response to the claim that in 2010, JB predicted a cold '14-'15 winter. Not exactly an example of "operational real-time forecasting".
It was a cold 2014-15 winter in a lot of places. How was your last seasonal forecast?
@ help4u


The worst prediction I have ever read is this from Joe Bastardi.

Joe Bastardi, June 2010:



This is it folks. We’ve peaked in extreme weather!

Quoting 611. Dakster:



Stopping the agriculture in California will cause global food prices to soar though. It isn't that easy. Thought of that before. Just shut down the agricultural users.

At least cow could potentially be shipped. I was in a Uhaul and stuck behind a truck hauling a bunch of cows - WOW to the smell is all I can say. I couldn't imagine a trainload of them.

Yeah. That's true. Not that Almonds would affect food prices any, and they say we can eat Bugs instead of Beef.
We've got lots of bugs here....

:):))
Quoting 594. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as for the ice
check back with me on that come sept 10 or so
we shall see where that stands
bring a boat cause u will be able to sail from Canada to Russia in near complete ice free arctic by sept
maybe
that's only 5 months away I am sure you will be around to see it
as for the gulf coast and being destroyed again check back in sept
you may be in for a surprise and fla too something about mom giving the governor some kind of stupid look on his face and not that normal look like now
VOLUSIA FL-
643 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 641 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...
DAYTONA BEACH...PORT ORANGE...SOUTH DAYTONA...AND HOLLY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED...OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.
IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8105 2910 8096 2909 8119 2913 8127
2920 8131

So far we have picked up 1.47" at the airport.
Quoting 615. pottery:


Yeah. That's true. Not that Almonds would affect food prices any, and they say we can eat Bugs instead of Beef.
We've got lots of bugs here....

:):))

Probably being a bit selfish here...but I really, really don't want to give up my almond milk. It's got such a long shelf life - since I made the switch I've never tossed any. Before, I tossed countless containers of cow's milk that had spoiled.
Quoting 612. PedleyCA:



Dream BIGGER, the last was .04 on 4/8 ..... not looking good...


i didn't say my dreams came true though.
Quoting 614. Xandra:



The worst prediction I have ever read is this from Joe Bastardi.

Joe Bastardi, June 2010:



This is it folks. We’ve peaked in extreme weather!



Thanks to JB, we probably haven't peaked in extreme forecasts

Quoting 613. NativeSun:

It was a cold 2014-15 winter in a lot of places. How was your last seasonal forecast?


Other than right over my house I was not aware of a lot of places where it was a cold winter. So where besides the east and northeastern parts of north america were the lots of places?
From Levi Cowan:
" photo CCbTIMFXIAEji8X_zpsyoovsuza.png
Quoting 615. pottery:


Yeah. That's true. Not that Almonds would affect food prices any, and they say we can eat Bugs instead of Beef.
We've got lots of bugs here....

:):))


Maybe... But I would think it would affect more than just the few things you listed. I am not eating solely bugs, I'll go vegetarian before that happens. I wonder if Oranges, avocados, and other fruits that Cali provides in large numbers would be affected too.

LAbonbon, I like Almond milk too. Although every one around prefers cow milk.
Quoting 613. NativeSun:

It was a cold 2014-15 winter in a lot of places. How was your last seasonal forecast?

Over the 48 contiguous states, the winter of '14-'15 was much above average. Most of the people are east of the Mississippi, but most of the land lies to the west. As for seasonal forecasts, they seem to be a fool's errand
I'm going to see if we have those "it takes one" for the U.S or surrounding areas this hurricane season in order to make it memorable.So while many on here were complaining (substituting the other word with complaining) about a boring 2014 hurricane season (I personally enjoyed tracking the storms even if it wasn't a lot of them they were quality over numbers) Bermuda got their "it takes one" or shall I say 2? So I'm gonna wait until Nov/30/2015 to see how everything went...No matter how many doom and gloom el nino forecast are out there...Let's see how Captain Trough save the U.S hold up this year (He cannot however save the other land areas.)
Quoting 625. washingtonian115:

I'm going to see if we have those "it takes one" for the U.S or surrounding areas this hurricane season in order to make it memorable.So while many on here were complaining (substituting the other word with complaining) about a boring 2014 hurricane season (I personally enjoyed tracking the storms even if it wasn't a lot of them they were quality over numbers) Bermuda got their "it takes one" or shall I say 2? So I'm gonna wait until Nov/30/2015 to see how everything went...No matter how many doom and gloom el nino forecast are out there...Let's see how Captain Trough save the U.S hold up this year (He cannot however save the other land areas.)
The blog has a good tendency to do this, It is best to wait until Summer.
Here is your report from ground zero in the week of never ending rain. So far today I've had - let me check the gauge right quick - yep, it's still zero. I did have drizzle for five minutes but it wasn't enough to tip the bucket. There was a fairly healthy looking bloberoo (that being smaller than a blob) that headed up from Lower Alabama earlier today. Just about 70 miles from here, it took a hard right, headed into Georgia, and gave them a smallish flood. There is presently a bloberino (that being smaller than a bloberoo) also coming up from the land of sun and beaches, but it is following the path of it's larger brother into Georgia, although he doesn't look long for this world, bless his heart. As the Boys from Birmingham have noted, the "FIRST ROUND STARTED MODESTLY IN THE SOUTH HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA." Yes, indeed, very modestly. So modest it hasn't been noticeable. Still, according to the Boys, the chance of rain tonight is "near 100%". Now I don't know how close it has to be in a perfect forecasting world to qualify as "near" but I'm assuming that zero percent is a bit off the mark. Still, I live in hope of a wandering shower or even a long-lasting drizzle bomb to help make up my 12 inch rainfall deficit. If that happens, I'll drive across the river (we don't allow gambling here) and buy a lottery ticket. Then I'll make a long range forecast...
Evening everybody. No rain today and less than 0.1" yesterday. the next several days have high rain chances for E. Central FL, so we will probably get a deluge one of the days and stay mostly dry the rest, since the storms with the heavy rain are (so far) moving little, so you have to be close to directly under them where they form to get the heaviest rain.

I hope the rainy pattern sticks around, but it is only the second week in April, so it is extremely unlikely to be an early start to the rainy season. The rainy season for the Orlando area starts, on average, between May 20-25.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
708 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

KSC089-183-130030-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150413T0030Z/
SMITH KS-JEWELL KS-
708 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SMITH AND WEST CENTRAL JEWELL COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER LEBANON...OR 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ESBON AROUND 720 PM CDT.
On a lighter note here's a article on brunch,it's origins and how it became popular in the U.S
Link
Quoting 627. sar2401:
Here is your report from ground zero in the week of never ending rain. So far today I've had - let me check the gauge right quick - yep, it's still zero. ... [snip]

Lol, Sar. Does it ever rain at your place? Not that I can remember :-) New Atacama in Alabama?

Quite a line of storms now from Mexico up to Canada:

Saved loop of current lightning. Source for updates.

Good night and a nice start into the new week!
Quoting 630. washingtonian115:

On a lighter note here's a article on brunch,it's origins and how it became popular in the U.S
Link


The article judges popularity of brunch by google searches? I would have hope they would have at least done it by per capita google searches... New York State is #1 for almost any google search. There are so many people there. In Alaska there are more Moose then people. Heck a 5 square mile area in South Dade has more people than the entire state... If we split Alaska into two, Texas would be the THIRD largest US State...

The trend may still be correct. I don't see as many advertisements for brunch here as I did living in Florida....

And I agree with your Hurricane Season outlook and outlook on them in general.
Interesting CNN article on glacial retreat... Glaciers are disappearing, but climate change skeptics are not.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/05/travel/the-wonder-l ist-chamonix-alps-bill-weir/index.html

Link
Quoting 593. StormyPleasures:
I chased this wedge tornado with a friend of mine! In this clip, we hydroplaned while chasing. This was an intense chase!! Hail all over the road, huge wedge tornado tearing across the landscape. Just amazing! - VIDEO


I feel like a proud grandmother - -
Quoting 632. Dakster:



The article judges popularity of brunch by google searches? I would have hope they would have at least done it by per capita google searches... New York State is #1 for almost any google search. There are so many people there. In Alaska there are more Moose then people. Heck a 5 square mile area in South Dade has more people than the entire state... If we split Alaska into two, Texas would be the THIRD largest US State...

The trend may still be correct. I don't see as many advertisements for brunch here as I did living in Florida....

And I agree with your Hurricane Season outlook and outlook on them in general.
Yes I agree that the Google search tactic was pathetic.I've been doing brunch for 27 years now and the young'ins around the area think they've discovered something new and amazing XD.
Quoting 635. washingtonian115:

Yes I agree that the Google search tactic was pathetic.I've been doing brunch for 27 years now and the young'ins around the area think they've discovered something new and amazing XD.


Notice that the least populated states don't do brunch. Shoulda been a CLUE to the researcher.

And yes, the young uns think everything is "new"...

Hey Water Puppy. How goes it? For a little bit, might be in your neck of the woods... Yep, going from 61N back to 25N...
Quoting 633. Dakster:

Interesting CNN article on glacial retreat... Glaciers are disappearing, but climate change skeptics are not.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/05/travel/the-wonder-l ist-chamonix-alps-bill-weir/index.html

Link
I have come to the conclusion that there will always be climate change skeptics, the Earth can become a burning inferno with people melting away, and there will still be those who are skeptical about climate change. Then there will be those who will say, "I wish I would have listened and followed the right crowd, someone please save me I am sorry I did not listen" and then there might be some who will say "Haha I told you so." The latter happens on this blog quite often that it becomes amusing sometimes.
Quoting 608. pottery:


I was reading today, that between the Almond plantations, Nestle, and Cows, they use up to 80% of the water available in CA.
Seems like a pretty simple solution to the water problems there, if that's true.
So you are saying people us very little water.
639. yoboi
Quoting 637. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have come to the conclusion that there will always be climate change skeptics, the Earth can become a burning inferno with people melting away, and there will still be those who are skeptical about climate change. Then there will be those who will say, "I wish I would have listened and followed the right crowd, someone please save me I am sorry I did not listen" and then there might be some who will say "Haha I told you so." The latter happens on this blog quite often that it becomes amusing sometimes.



All you can do is adapt....
641. yoboi
Quoting 640. LAbonbon:




Looks like a very wet week....Had 5.3 inches so far...
Quoting 641. yoboi:



Looks like a very wet week....Had 5.3 inches so far...

I was wondering how you were doing over there. Acadiana and South Texas (& NE Mexico) got the bulk of the rain so far, it appears.
Quoting barbamz:

Lol, Sar. Does it ever rain at your place? Not that I can remember :-) New Atacama in Alabama?

Quite a line of storms now from Mexico up to Canada:

Saved loop of current lightning. Source for updates.

Good night and a nice start into the new week!
That certainly seems to be the case for the last year or so. Even while other areas of the state get rain, we get nothing. We are normally one of the rainiest spots in the country, with an average annual total of 55". I don't know what's going on now but I sure wish it would stop.

All that lightning is happening along a cold front that's anchored by a low way up in Canada. Unfortunately, our former cold front is now a warm front advancing northward, and it looks like we may have another triple point setup in Kansas and Nebraska, with the attendant storms and tornadoes. Hopefully not as bad as what happened in Illinois but we could see a good number of tornadoes over the next two days.

Have a pleasant night, Barb.
TORNADO WARNING
TXC505-130230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0001.150413T0208Z-150413T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
908 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 907 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER FALCON MESA...OR NEAR ZAPATA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 90 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. TAKE IMMEDIATE
SHELTER!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZAPATA...ZAPATA COUNTY AIRPORT...MEDINA...ZAPATA MIDDLE SCHOOL...
MORALES-SANCHEZ...LAS PALMAS...ZAPATA HIGH SCHOOL...ZAPATA COUNTY
PUBLIC LIBRARY...FALCON LAKE ESTATES...ZAPATA COUNTY FIRE
DEPARTMENT...FALCON SHORES...FALCON MESA...SIESTA SHORES...
ZAPATA--MEDINA...BLACK BASS AND ROMEO T. FLORES PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Quoting yoboi:



All you can do is adapt....
Or die. I'm not much of a doom and gloomer but what I see now really does worry me. The unprecedented winter in the Northeast and parts of Canada, the unprecedented drought in the West (not just California), the small number of tornadoes for going on three years, inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons with no El Nino, the increasingly rapid melt of Arctic sea ice and Greenland glaciers...I could go on and on. Those things aren't normal, and some of them are as abnormal as it gets.

I see the things you post and understand that you think global warming is a bunch of crap but, in your heart of hearts, are you even a little bit worried? I mean, forget all the political things associated with GW - what happens if just the scientists are right and things are really starting to get out of control? I really wish we could get people on both sides to start working together on some solutions and stop the useless arguments about one graph or another. It's almost like someone on the coast who's just on the edge of the cone with a hurricane coming in and thinking they don't have to do anything because it won't affect them. Coming up with solutions and doing something is better than just staring at that cone.
Quoting LAbonbon:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC505-130230-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0001.150413T0208Z-150413T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
908 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ZAPATA COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 907 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER FALCON MESA...OR NEAR ZAPATA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A TORNADO STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF
UP TO 90 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. TAKE IMMEDIATE
SHELTER!

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZAPATA...ZAPATA COUNTY AIRPORT...MEDINA...ZAPATA MIDDLE SCHOOL...
MORALES-SANCHEZ...LAS PALMAS...ZAPATA HIGH SCHOOL...ZAPATA COUNTY
PUBLIC LIBRARY...FALCON LAKE ESTATES...ZAPATA COUNTY FIRE
DEPARTMENT...FALCON SHORES...FALCON MESA...SIESTA SHORES...
ZAPATA--MEDINA...BLACK BASS AND ROMEO T. FLORES PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.
Wowsers. 90 MPH? I don't think I've ever seen that high a straight line wind in a tornado warning. With 90 mph winds, it almost doesn't matter if there's a tornado in that cell in terms of likely damage.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
839 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

FLC063-133-130230-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150413T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JACKSON FL-WASHINGTON FL-
839 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
WESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 836 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN BAND. ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO BE
IMPASSIBLE IN THE COTTONDALE AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. RADAR INDICATES
UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN NEAR COTTONDALE WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS
ALREADY OCCURRING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHIPLEY...GRACEVILLE...BRADFORD...COTTONDALE...AL FORD...
CAMPBELLTON...SUNNY HILLS...BROWNTOWN...ROUND LAKE...BAHOMA...
KYNESVILLE...POPLAR HEAD...ELLAVILLE...JACOBS AND RIDGETOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 8565 3074 8562 3077 8562 3080 8560
3086 8560 3089 8558 3093 8555 3094 8553
3097 8553 3100 8550 3100 8526 3062 8528
3066 8568

$$

08-LAMERS
Does anyone have news coverage from Texas or Kansas on the tornado warned systems? Live streams?
Quoting gulfbreeze:
So you are saying people us very little water.
No, they don't. Only about 15% of the domestic water in California is consumed residentially. The 80% figure includes all agriculture in California, not just things like almonds.There is really more than enough water for agriculture of they start using wiser irrigation techniques and use tertiary treated wastewater, which is completely drinkable. Both these things take money, however, and that's in short supply in California.
Quoting 606. Neapolitan:

Nice video, though it threw me off for a minute until I realized the plane was flying in the direction opposite to that in which the tornado moved--that is, the plane moved NE to SW, while the twister's path was (obviously) SW to NE. One thing's for sure: had the tornado's path been 15 miles farther north, it would have torn all the way through the heavily-populated city of Rockford--and just four miles south would have devastated much of the larger town of Rochelle. IOW: it could have been a lot worse...


I have made the assumption that the tornado could not have traveled any straighter through a better area.
I know that's worded weird but think about it.
For as staight as it went, often homes were on either side of the path. Other than the town, about 3 or 4 houses in the rural areas seemed destroyed.
Really not bad for such a big storm.
At times, its like the tornado tried to split between 2 houses.
Quoting 639. yoboi:




All you can do is adapt....
No, that's not all you can do, somethings you just can't adapt to in this life. If the planet continues to get hotter and hotter and hotter, humans won't be able to adapt. Just ask the dinosaurs what happened to them? Oh that is right they are all extinct. Let's not be the undoing of our own kind. We can change our habits, it's proven fact that fossil fuels and the burning of it that produces CO2 is ruinous to the environment, there is a lot of health risks involved like respiratory infections in more urbanized and industrialized places in the world as well, like take China for an example, you have to wear a mask to get around. Also, when we have to clean up after oil spills look at all the species of marine life and birds that become impacted. And let's not forget about the politics of oil and when countries are fighting wars in the middle east how those gas prices tend to spike up. In the future, I think I could see myself putting a little extra money aside to buy an electric car, maybe they'll make an electric Lamborghini or something by then, that would pretty sweet. Right now they have the ASTERION LPI 910-4 that is a hybrid.
Quoting 639. yoboi:




All you can do is adapt....


You sound like a Marine. Adapt, Improvise, and overcome...

-- Not attacking you, just making my own opinion below --

I do agree that life of some sort will go on and adapt. There are many organisms that live in colder and hotter environments that we thought were possible. Even ones under huge amounts of pressure at the bottom of the deepest oceans. However, if the Earth's climate changes too fast humans won't be here to witness it. WE have almost been wiped out a few times in history. If anything that should be enough proof that life on Earth, at least for us, is fragile. Whether people believe that humans are causing this change or not, doesn't mean it isn't happening.
654. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
From Levi Cowan:
" photo CCbTIMFXIAEji8X_zpsyoovsuza.png

what is that mean exactly ???
Didn't see this when it was issued earlier. Even the 1-3 and 1-5 day QPFs look bad. Now I know why Patrap posted a photo of a life preserver earlier...

BB,

You may have posted this before but this was an interesting article as well:

mighty-rio-grande-now-a-trickle-under-siege
Quoting 639. yoboi:




All you can do is adapt....
yoboi you are a regular (denier) on Dr. Ricky Rood's blog and absolutely know better. Perhaps all You can do is adapt but many of us have no intention of toasting you on the Titanic.
Quoting 657. Wolfberry:

yoboi you are a regular on Dr. Ricky Rood's blog and you absolutely know better. Perhaps all you can do is adapt but the rest of us have no intention of toasting you on the Titanic.


If they only would have re-arranged the chairs on the Titanic...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Legend/N0R/CRP_N0R_L egend_0.gif

'bow echo' / 'derecho' moving across South Texas!
Quoting Dakster:
BB,

You may have posted this before but this was an interesting article as well:

mighty-rio-grande-now-a-trickle-under-siege


No I hadn't Dakster, thank you! Adding it to the list now.
Quoting 661. LAbonbon:




hear, hear.... 'bow echo'!
Quoting 654. JRRP:


what is that mean exactly ???
TC track density anomaly for analogs for this year epac season.
Major flooding rain event under way in Mobile and more on the way!


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
ALC097-130745-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.W.0001.150413T0139Z-150413T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
839 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 245 AM CDT MONDAY

* AT 838 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS INDICATED OVER THE WARNED
AREA AND RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WARNED AREA. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBILE... PRICHARD... SARALAND...
CHICKASAW... BAYOU LA BATRE... MIDTOWN MOBILE...
THEODORE... REGIONAL AIRPORT IN ...
GRAND BAY...
TILLMANS CORNER... I65 AND I165... I65 AND US 45...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK INTO AREAS WHERE
WATER CROSSES A ROAD. TURN AROUND - DON`T DROWN!

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3082 8839 3084 8801 3039 8822 3038 8831
3040 8834 3039 8835 3040 8835 3040 8836
3039 8837 3040 8837 3038 8839
Quoting 661. LAbonbon:




That convective complex is crazy, geeze I don't think South Texas is used to seeing stuff like that.
Quoting 664. Jedkins01:

Major flooding rain event under way in Mobile and more on the way!

(snip)

RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE WARNED AREA.

(snip)

That's a lot of rain in a very short time

000
FXUS64 KBRO 130004
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A SQUAW
LINE
IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT AS
THE STORM MOVES EAST INTO THE CWA WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST TWO DAYS.




Quoting 666. LAbonbon:


That's a lot of rain in a very short time


It is, Mobile airport has had 4+ already, and look at the radar, a strong line of even heavier and just slow moving activity is moving in.
Quoting 665. Jedkins01:



That convective complex is crazy, geeze I don't think South Texas is used to seeing stuff like that.

It's pretty impressive looking, isn't it? Don't know if you saw it, but the tornado warning issued earlier for Zapata County also included a warning of straight line wind gusts up to 90 mph. I bet a lot of folks in South Texas will either be woken up, or will be going to bed later than usual...
Quoting 669. LAbonbon:


It's pretty impressive looking, isn't it? Don't know if you saw it, but the tornado warning issued earlier for Zapata County also included a warning of straight line wind gusts up to 90 mph. I bet a lot of folks in South Texas will either be woken up, or will be going to bed later than usual...


Yeah I did, that's a genuine derecho honestly, crazy stuff.
Well, enough weather watching for me. I'm just thankful that I'm not looking at 8 in of rain in less than half a day (Mobile), or wicked winds (South Texas). Nope...nothing to keep me from the Land of Nod.

Good night, all. Hope everyone stays safe and tucked in their beds :)
Quoting 668. Jedkins01:



It is, Mobile airport has had 4+ already, and look at the radar, a strong line of even heavier and just slow moving activity is moving in.


Well that should get rid of the drought huh?



Sorry double post...
Earliest start of EC FL rainy season in history? Maybe ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015
[...]
THE EARLIEST WET SEASON START NOTED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EARLY MAY...EXCEPT THERE WERE A FEW TIMES WHEN THE ONSET OCCURRED IN
APRIL AT STUART. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE HAVING A PATTERN THAT
RESEMBLES THE WET SEASON THIS WEEK...IT IS TOO EARLY TO CHRISTEN
IT...AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRYING.
[...]
Jedkins you gotta be careful with those squaw lines... I hear they can be very dangerous...
10" to 12" of rain now just south of Sebring and thunderstorms reforming along the East Coast of FL.


Flood advisories Sunday across Volusia County where some areas have seen 2" to 5" of rain since Saturday.
Over the coming week, I will be posting material about the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln on my blog, during the 150th anniversary of the assassination.
Isaac, props for getting one of your pictures featured in the blog!
Quoting 678. BaltimoreBrian:

Over the coming week, I will be posting material about the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln on my blog, during the 150th anniversary of the assassination.


I am still trying to find out how the play ended that night.
Quoting LAbonbon:
My next wave, be careful guys.
That is one nasty looking line of storms.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It is, Mobile airport has had 4+ already, and look at the radar, a strong line of even heavier and just slow moving activity is moving in.
I, OTOH, have still had...zero. Cripes, that heavy rain is a lousy 50 miles south of me and has been all day. This is what happens when the warm front doesn't leave the coast. Mobile is now up to 4.93". I hope this doesn't turn into another April 30 like we had last year. I'd like to get rid of the drought but nine inches in one day was a little much.
Quoting 683. sar2401:

I, OTOH, have still had...zero. Cripes, that heavy rain is a lousy 50 miles south of me and has been all day. This is what happens when the warm front doesn't leave the coast. Mobile is now up to 4.93". I hope this doesn't turn into another April 30 like we had last year. I'd like to get rid of the drought but nine inches in one day was a little much.


Yikes... Usually all at once doesn't get rid of the drought.
BTW, we have strange looking dogs in my neighborhood. Here they are going through the trash.

Quoting 685. Dakster:

BTW, we have strange looking dogs in my neighborhood. Here they are going through the trash.


It's so nice to see your local wildlife adapting to the suburban environment :-)
It's unfortunate that society - and more importantly critical thinking - have devolved so extensively that we now think people who are projecting genuine opinions and unabashedly expressing thoughts - are trolls. Either that or we get comments like "Is this guy for real?"
At least 15 people killed and hundreds injured as fire ravages Siberia
Published, 13/04/2015 | 08:56
More than 1,000 homes were destroyed or damaged by the fires, which were started by farmers burning grass in their fields but spread quickly because of strong winds.
The health ministry in Khakassia, a region in south-eastern Siberia, said 15 people including a child have been confirmed dead and 393 people injured.
Emergency officials said they have put out the fires in all 38 villages in the area with the help of aircraft and 6,000 firefighters.
The region's chief, Viktor Zimin, said in televised remarks that it would take about 5 billion rubles (L63.7 million) to rebuild housing in the area.


EuroNews Video report.
Quoting 677. StormTrackerScott:

Flood advisories Sunday across Volusia County where some areas have seen 2" to 5" of rain since Saturday.


Wish I could get some rain here. Only 0.59" so far in April after 2.12" in March.
WOW this one El-Nino super charged Southern Jet. With El-Nino strengthening is what is causing this sudden intensity of the Southern Branch.

Sunday on the GFS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015


.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...
FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP AS YESTERDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LOW LEVEL S/SE WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AND MOVE INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN
EXPECTED AS THESE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFT WITH
INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY
AND TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. FAVORED LOCATION
FOR THIS COLLISION TO OCCUR IS NEAR TO WEST OF ORLANDO BASED ON
LATEST HRRR/WRF TRENDS AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS UP TO 70-80%
ARE FORECAST. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ANY HIGHER CLOUD COVER THAT PERSISTS AND LIMITS DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER FOR NOW EXPECTING ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WITH MAX TEMPS AGAIN REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

A FEW STRONGER STORMS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THE AFT AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/W OVER THE GULF.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SLOW STORM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AGAIN EXPECTED.
HOWEVER STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TUE-SUN...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A METEOROLOGICAL VERSION
OF TRENCH WARFARE IS SHAPING UP. ANALYSIS IF THE H30-H20 JET STREAM
SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE 80KT ZONAL STREAK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO
TO WELL WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SPANNING OVER 70DEGS OF
LONGITUDE.
AS THIS ENERGY WORKS ITS WAY EWD...THE JET PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY...ALLOWING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES TO DVLP
INTO CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEMS ALONG A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROF OVER
THE SE CONUS.

THE ANTICIPATED IMPULSES WILL WEAKEN AND DEFORM THE WRN FLANK OF THE
ATLC RIDGE THRU THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE A
DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SRN BRANCH WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE FROM A ZONAL TO A LIFTING
ORIENTATION OVER THE WRN GOMEX...NOT A FAVORABLE POSITION TO UPROOT
THE RIDGE FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER INTO S FL THRU MIDWEEK AS A WEAK SFC
LOW DVLPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...THEN
WILL DRIFT BACK INTO CENTRAL FL INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HI PRES BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND REINFORCES THE
ATLC RIDGE. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY
WITH A STRONGER FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ERN GOMEX LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BUT DIRECT IMPACT WOULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE FCST TIME FRAME.

THE PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW WILL TAP A WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS
WHILE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE N WILL PROVIDE AND
OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO POOL ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN FL. WEAK
RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT MID LVL CAP FROM
DVLPG...WHILE UPSTREAM H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C TO -12C CLEAR BACK TO THE
TX/NM BORDER WILL ALLOW MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM TO
PERSIST WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LVLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABV AVG....
CHC/LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. THIS IS
QUITE UNUSUAL FOR APRIL WHICH CLIMOTOLOGICALLY THE DRIEST MONTH FOR
CENTRAL FL. SHRAS/TSRAS GENERATED BY MESOSCALE BNDRY INTERACTION
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE ERN PENINSULA AS W/SW STEERING FLOW
IS PROGGED THRU THE WEEK.

SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV CLIMO THRU THE WEEK...MINS IN THE
M60S/L70S...MAXES IN THE M/U80S WITH A FEW SPOTS BREAKING THE 90F
MARK OVER THE INTERIOR.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 69 84 69 / 60 40 70 40
MCO 87 70 88 69 / 70 50 60 40
MLB 85 70 86 70 / 50 30 40 40
VRB 85 71 85 70 / 40 20 30 30
LEE 86 70 86 69 / 80 50 60 30
SFB 87 69 87 69 / 70 50 60 40
ORL 87 70 88 70 / 70 50 60 40
FPR 85 70 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Wish I could get some rain here. Only 0.59" so far in April after 2.12" in March.


I've got you beat.
Only .25" for April and 1.49" for March.
4.93" from Jan. 1

Not a drop yesterday. I had a nice cell just to my south and then it just fizzled and moved to the west away from my area.
it was awhile ago but did not presidential hopeful sen. rubio vote against aid for sandy relief? that vote might go and haunt him when s fl. gets the big one.
Quoting 698. islander101010:

it was awhile ago but did not presidential hopeful sen. rubio vote against aid for sandy relief? that vote might go and haunt him when s fl. gets the big one.


I wouldn't give one dime to the corrupt east coast thugs, I was there assisting Cities after Hurricane Sandy, or Flood Sandy, those folks are corrupt at the highest levels, while the citizens get screwed! don't believe those in power! it's all about them and their wealth!
700. beell
Look out SW LA. An elongated low pressure center developing over SE TX with 3 mb/2 hr pressure falls. It's gonna rain.

701. flsky
Where can I find this map?

Quoting 687. Patrap:


Quoting KoritheMan:
It's unfortunate that society - and more importantly critical thinking - have devolved so extensively that we now think people who are projecting genuine opinions and unabashedly expressing thoughts - are trolls. Either that or we get comments like "Is this guy for real?"

What are you talking about?
703. beell

Precipitable Water
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
0230 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTONA BEACH...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.12 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTONA BEACH
YESTERDAY...SUNDAY APRIL 12TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.90
INCHES SET IN 1947.
705. beell
High rain chances everyday thru atleast next Tuesday after that becomes the question does a front come thru or do we stay in this rainy pattern sealing the deal to what could be the Rainy Season? Going to be a interesting week for sure as models each day keep pushing back the frontal passage and if one does go thru then the models show rain returning again a day or 2 later so its going to a interesting watching the models try to iron this out.

Orlando
Tragic end for a great individual.

Thanks for sharing.

Looks like a rainy week for the Carolinas

Quoting 678. BaltimoreBrian:

Over the coming week, I will be posting material about the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln on my blog, during the 150th anniversary of the assassination.
SW Alabama got a bit of rain yesterday...

Here's what it looked like when I left the Zoo yesterday in Sanford.

Quoting trunkmonkey:


I wouldn't give one dime to the corrupt east coast thugs, I was there assisting Cities after Hurricane Sandy, or Flood Sandy, those folks are corrupt at the highest levels, while the citizens get screwed! don't believe those in power! it's all about them and their wealth!
Wait. So you were there helping in Sandy's aftermath--and thank you for that, by the way--but now you're urging others to *NOT* help? Who are those "corrupt east coast thugs"? I mean, Christie (obvs), but who else is on your list?
711. yoboi
Quoting 698. islander101010:

it was awhile ago but did not presidential hopeful sen. rubio vote against aid for sandy relief? that vote might go and haunt him when s fl. gets the big one.


If history repeats itself he might become president....Here is a list that voted against Katrina Aid....
The Senate passed the bill 80 - 14 . Those voting "no" (roll call vote)
Boxer (D-CA), Burr (R-NC), Clinton (D-NY), Coburn (R-OK), Dodd (D-CT), Enzi (R-WY), Feingold (D-WI), Kennedy (D-MA), Kerry (D-MA), Leahy (D-VT), Obama (D-IL) Sanders (I-VT) Whitehouse (D-RI) Wyden (D-OR).

Link
Quoting 708. LAbonbon:

SW Alabama got a bit of rain yesterday...




12.6" fell just south of Sebring,FL last night. That might have been the highest 24hr total across anywhere in North America.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
High rain chances everyday thru atleast next Tuesday after that becomes the question does a front come thru or do we stay in this rainy pattern sealing the deal to what could be the Rainy Season. Going to be a interesting week as models each day keep pushing back the frontal passage and if one does go thru then the models show rain returning again a day or 2 later so its going to a interesting watching the models try to iron this out.

Orlando


Unfortunately for southern Florida, as you go south down the state the rain chances drop off.

Only 20% - 30% chance of precipitation for my area.
20% chance of rain all week for Miami. This shows there is a combination of factors causing the rain across the northern half of Florida and not a classic S.E. flow/Bermuda High setup we would see in the summer.

Today A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
TonightMostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind 11 to 13 mph.

TuesdayPartly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.

WednesdayPartly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph.

Wednesday NightA 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.

ThursdayPartly sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph.

Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.
FridayPartly sunny, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph.

Friday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 75.
SaturdayA 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76.

SundayA 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Quoting 713. Sfloridacat5:



Unfortunately for southern Florida, as you go south down the state the rain chances drop off.

Only 20% - 30% chance of precipitation for my area.
20% chance of rain all week for Miami. This shows there is a combination of factors causing the rain across the northern half of Florida and not a classic S.E. flow/Bermuda High setup we would see in the summer.

Today A 20 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
TonightMostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind 11 to 13 mph.

TuesdayPartly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.

WednesdayPartly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph.

Wednesday NightA 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.

ThursdayPartly sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 8 to 13 mph.

Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southeast wind around 9 mph.
FridayPartly sunny, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph.

Friday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 75.
SaturdayA 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 76.

SundayA 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.



To your east north east over a foot of rain fell last night. A big storm developed in Sebring and just sat there.
Quoting yoboi:


If history repeats itself he might become president....Here is a list that voted against Katrina Aid....
The Senate passed the bill 80 - 14 . Those voting "no" (roll call vote)
Boxer (D-CA), Burr (R-NC), Clinton (D-NY), Coburn (R-OK), Dodd (D-CT), Enzi (R-WY), Feingold (D-WI), Kennedy (D-MA), Kerry (D-MA), Leahy (D-VT), Obama (D-IL) Sanders (I-VT) Whitehouse (D-RI) Wyden (D-OR).

Link
Not quite right. You've shown the roll call for the 2007 supplemental spending bill. The actual Katrina bill--2007's HR 1591, which included a waiver of the Stafford Act that would allow better dissemination of relief funds--received 47 'Nay' votes (46 Republicans and 1 Independent).
Forecast Discussion for Miami

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF MAINLY
KPBI AND KFLL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT THEY ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS. SE WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 10-15 KT TODAY...EXCEPT BECOMING SW AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015/

..LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TUESDAY...
..MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHORT TERM...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TODAY AND TUESDAY REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS
. THEREFORE, THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AND AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS SHOULD END THIS MORNING. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LESS TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS
COMPARE TO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
EXCEPT 50 PERCENT WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ON TUESDAY, THE
WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES, AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO SLOWLY SWING FROM A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THE DRIER
AIR WILL STILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

THEREFORE, THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THIS WEEK WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH, INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND MAINLY SOUTHERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.
THEREFORE, THE POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

718. yoboi
Quoting 705. beell:




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT
THIS TIME. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE
SUNRISE. LOOKING FOR STORM ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF A BIT THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BUT CHANCES FOR SOME STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S TODAY AS RAINS AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT.

WHAT IS BRINGING THE REGION ALL THE RAIN IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
BACK TO THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND HANG AROUND THAT LOCATION THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONT IN A VERY WET PATTERN
WITH STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH THE NEXT STRONG
IMPULSE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RAISE RIVER
LEVELS AND MORE LOCATIONS WILL GO INTO FLOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT FRONT IS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES BACK LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
From NWS-Mobile tweet this morning: "Radar Storm Total Precip product from Sun Aftn-Sun Evening"

Quoting 637. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have come to the conclusion that there will always be climate change skeptics, the Earth can become a burning inferno with people melting away, and there will still be those who are skeptical about climate change. Then there will be those who will say, "I wish I would have listened and followed the right crowd, someone please save me I am sorry I did not listen" and then there might be some who will say "Haha I told you so." The latter happens on this blog quite often that it becomes amusing sometimes.


There are tons of skeptics. That's what scientists are. What you're referring to are deniers. A denier will remain a denier until what they're denying comes up a kicks them straight in berries. And even then there will be those who will still denying the very thing that killed them ("It wasn't the cigarettes! Those are good for you!").

Nobody wants global warming to happen.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

LAZ030-031-041-042-052-073-074-TXZ216-131300-
EAST CAMERON-CALCASIEU-WEST
CAMERON-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-VERMILION-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ORANGE-
656 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CALCASIEU...EASTERN
CAMERON...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHWESTERN VERMILION...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD...SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN
PARISHES IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 655 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VINTON TO NEAR GRAND CHENIER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...WESTLAKE...WELSH...VINTON...IO WA...LAKE
ARTHUR...GUEYDAN...FENTON...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL
AIRPORT...STARKS...RAGLEY...FIELDS...DE QUINCY...LACASSINE NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE...SINGER...HAYES...GRAND CHENIER AND GRAND LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


To your east north east over a foot of rain fell last night. A big storm developed in Sebring and just sat there.


Best chance for more storms is across central Fl.
Reading the Miami discussion they give the area around Lake O the higher rain chances (30%-40%). The rest of S. Florida in the 20% range.
Quoting 722. Sfloridacat5:



Best chance for more storms is across central Fl.
Reading the Miami discussion they give the area around Lake O the higher rain chances (30%-40%). The rest of S. Florida in the 20% range.


I am not disputing that but the storms that have been forming near Lake have been nearly stationary causing storms to dump insane rainfall amounts.
The current pattern should give the Panhandle some much needed rain.
Not sure how much relief we'll get down in S. Florida where the abnormally dry area keeps expanding to the north.

725. yoboi
Quoting 721. LAbonbon:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

LAZ030-031-041-042-052-073-074-TXZ216-131300-
EAST CAMERON-CALCASIEU-WEST
CAMERON-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-VERMILION-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ORANGE-
656 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CALCASIEU...EASTERN
CAMERON...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...NORTHWESTERN VERMILION...
SOUTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD...SOUTHWESTERN ACADIA...SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN
PARISHES IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 655 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VINTON TO NEAR GRAND CHENIER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE CHARLES...SULPHUR...WESTLAKE...WELSH...VINTON...IO WA...LAKE
ARTHUR...GUEYDAN...FENTON...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL
AIRPORT...STARKS...RAGLEY...FIELDS...DE QUINCY...LACASSINE NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE...SINGER...HAYES...GRAND CHENIER AND GRAND LAKE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.


It is really coming down this morning...Will not take much to flood due to all the rain we have already had..
Quoting 720. Xyrus2000:



There are tons of skeptics. That's what scientists are. What you're referring to are deniers. A denier will remain a denier until what they're denying comes up a kicks them straight in berries. And even then there will be those who will still denying the very thing that killed them ("It wasn't the cigarettes! Those are good for you!").

Nobody wants global warming to happen.

Did you happen to read the article Dakster linked to in post #633? Well worth a read through, IMHO.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I am not disputing that but the storms that have been forming near Lake have been nearly stationary causing storms to dump insane rainfall amounts.


Lake O produced some Lake Effect breeze storms the other day. The storms were wrapped around the Lake. It was pretty cool to see.
Quoting 657. Wolfberry:

yoboi you are a regular (denier) on Dr. Ricky Rood's blog and absolutely know better. Perhaps all You can do is adapt but many of us have no intention of toasting you on the Titanic.


His idea of adaptation is basically invading Canada and moving the entire agricultural infrastructure of the Midwest on top of the Canadian Shield. And apparently this will all happen overnight as well.

His adaptation strategy for California: "Who cares?"

He doesn't really know what adaptation means, or has the slightest idea of the costs and resources involved. And besides, what do we need to adapt to? According to him the planet isn't warming and the climate isn't changing. All these interesting new phenomena we're seeing are just figments of our imagination. So drill baby drill, frack daddy frack, and everything will be wine and roses.
yobil thanxs for bringing those names up. i just cant figure what was sen. rubio thinking? miami has dodged a few bullets last twenty yrs and been lucky.
Quoting 698. islander101010:

it was awhile ago but did not presidential hopeful sen. rubio vote against aid for sandy relief? that vote might go and haunt him when s fl. gets the big one.

36 Republicans voted against the bill:

Hope everyone had a great weekend :-)! Thought I would share a few pictures of some storms in Orlando this past Saturday around 6pm. Florida's summertime pattern is beginning to make an appearance :-)!





Good Morning from Tallahassee/Gulf Coast. Cannot speak for the rest of country, global warming, climate change, potential tornado outbreaks, or the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season but the Gulf Coast is following traditional climatology according to folklore;

April Showers Bring May Flowers..............................

The difference of thunderstorms in Florida than the Midwest is that, Thunderstorms in Florida are more vertically stacked, meaning straight up due to convective heating thus go through the progressive life cycle of the storm: initiative, mature updrafts and downdrafts and dissipation due to downdraft domination. The life cycle is relatively short 30-40 minutes tops. Severe storms are limited to hail and weak tornadoes. BTW the freezing level in Florida is much higher than elsewhere at 12-15,000 feet. In the Midwest thunderstorms get TILTED due to vertical wind shear with the help of the JETSTREAM and embedded JETSTREAKS. With the accompanied big hail and large and damaging tornadoes. Also what helps the southern and central plains is the addition of 3 airmasses such as cP, mT, and cT, as well as the dryline which separates moisture gradients not temperatures. Thank you for listening
Orleans Parish Severe Watches & Warnings

NOAA Weather Radio

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 3:25 AM CDT on April 13, 2015

... Flash Flood Watch now in effect through Tuesday evening...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* a portion of southeast Louisiana... including the following
areas... Ascension... Assumption... Iberville... lower Jefferson...
lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard...
lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St. James... St.
John The Baptist... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne.

* Through Tuesday evening

* several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Tuesday evening... and areas of heavy rainfall are expected.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible.
Many areas of southeast Louisiana and across the Mississippi
coast along and south of the Interstate 10 12 corridor have
saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall... and additional
heavy rainfall may quickly runoff resulting in flash flooding of
poorly drained... low lying areas.

* Areas that see continuous training of heavy rainfall within a
short time could receive flood water to depths that would
impact property and people in those areas. Area creeks...
streams and rivers are also likely to experience rises... and
some may rise to bankfull or flood levels over the next
several days.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

we had 5" of rain yesterday and last night, 7 miles southeast in cottondale florida had close to 11 inches. roads see ok for now and have heard no reports of damage.
Looks like it may be my turn...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
844 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

LAZ034>036-046>050-131445-
WEST BATON ROUGE-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-EAST FELICIANA-EAST BATON
ROUGE-LIVINGSTON-ASCENSION-WEST FELICIANA-
844 AM CDT MON APR 13 2015

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT WEST BATON ROUGE...EAST BATON ROUGE...CENTRAL WEST
FELICIANA...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON... CENTRAL
IBERVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA...NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION AND
POINTE COUPEE PARISHES...

AT 843 AM CDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR KROTZ SPRINGS TO CARVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...PLAQUEMINE...PORT
ALLEN...NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE...OAK HILLS PLACE...ST.
GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY...WHITE CASTLE...LIVONIA...
MARINGOUIN...SLAUGHTER...FORDOCHE...ROSEDALE AND GROSSE TETE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
Quoting LAbonbon:
From NWS-Mobile tweet this morning: "Radar Storm Total Precip product from Sun Aftn-Sun Evening"

Mobile airport is up to slightly less than eight inches this morning. No reports of serious flooding so far. The area around there has very well developed drainage systems and can handle this kind of rain as long as they get some breaks in the rainfall. That's happening now but there is more on the way. How much flooding we get in south Alabama really depends on how much rainfall we get today, since this should be the day of the most concentrated rainfall this week. I had a bloberino move through overnight that finally gave me 0.19", Unfortunately, the dry slot that's helping Mobile is also hurting me as the bloberino moves into Georgia again. Just cloudy and humid but at least the temperature is only 68. Might be interesting this afternoon if we get any prolonged breaks in the clouds.
Andrew here in Grand Bay Alabama. 8.1" of rain last night. Boy I hope that's enough :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
742. jpsb
Quoting 637. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have come to the conclusion that there will always be climate change skeptics


I am pretty sure everyone knows that the climate changes over time. Now man made Global Warming via CO2 released from burning fossil fuels is an entirely different thing than Climate Change.
743. jpsb
Quoting 633. Dakster:

Interesting CNN article on glacial retreat... Glaciers are disappearing, but climate change skeptics are not.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/05/travel/the-wonder-l ist-chamonix-alps-bill-weir/index.html

Link



The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century.
Quoting jpsb:



The Little Ice Age is a period between about 1300 and 1870 during which Europe and North America were subjected to much colder winters than during the 20th century.
Which, again, has nothing to do with the OP's comment. But your consistency is admirable, even if your denial isn't... ;-)