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Tornadoes rip Massachusetts, killing 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:30 PM GMT on June 02, 2011

The governor declared a state of emergency in Massachusetts last night after two rare and powerful tornadoes ripped through the state's third largest city, Springfield (population 150,000.) Separate tornadoes hit the city near 4:30 pm and 6:20pm EDT, killing four people, injuring 40, and causing extensive damage. The four deaths ties 2011 with 1973 as Massachusetts' deadliest tornado year since 1953, when 90 people died in an F-4 tornado that hit Worcester. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged seven preliminary reports of tornadoes in Massachusetts yesterday. The region was in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. The tornadoes were spawned by a large low pressure system centered over Canada that trailed a cold front southwards over New England. Record heat pushed northwards ahead of the cold front, with Newark, Washington D.C., Burlington, and Montpelier all recording record highs for the date. The contrast between the cold, dry air flowing south from Canada and the record warm, moist air ahead of the cold front created an extremely unstable atmosphere, helping fire off unusually intense thunderstorms over New England. And as we've seen so often this year, the jet stream over the thunderstorm region was unusually strong and had plenty of wind shear--a sharp change in wind speed and direction with height. This wind shear created shearing forces on the air over New England that helped get it spinning, creating rotating supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes.


Figure 1. Yesterday's tornadoes caused damage characteristic of at least an EF-2 tornado with 110 - 137 mph winds in Springfield, Massachusetts. Image credit: Springfield Falcons hockey team, via the cbslocal.com Boston website.


Video 1. Incredible tower cam view from wfsb.com of the June 1, 2011 Springfield, Massachusetts tornado crossing the Connecticut River. Another amateur video posted here on Youtube shows the tornado crossing I-91 in Springfield during rush hour (many swear words on this one!)

Springfield damage characteristic of an EF-2 tornado
Damage photos I've seen of the Springfield tornadoes show destruction characteristic of at least an EF-2 tornado with 111 - 135 mph winds. The damage photo above (Figure 1) shows the collapse of the top story walls of a brick building. According to the Storm Prediction Center's Description of Damage for this type of structure, the winds needed to do this type of damage typically range between 103 and 143 mph, or EF-2 speeds. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the damage gets rated EF-3, since there is a report of a 3-story building that collapsed (EF-3 winds are 136 - 165 mph.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 6:01pm EDT June 1, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms over Massachusetts, and Invest 93L near Tampa, Florida. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Massachusetts tornado history
One of yesterday's Springfield tornadoes pulled debris from Springfield and deposited it 45 miles to the east-northeast in Millbury, according to an NWS storm report. Powerful, long-track tornadoes like this are rare in New England. Most tornadoes in the region are small, weak, EF-0 and EF-1 twisters that touch down briefly and do minor damage. Only once every eight years, on average, does a strong or violent EF-3 or EF-4 tornado hit Massachusetts. According to the tornadohistoryproject.com, since 1951, there have been only eight strong to violent EF-3 or stronger tornadoes in Massachusetts:

May 29, 1995: An F4 tornado killed 3 and injured 24 in Great Barrington. The tornado tracked for 11 miles, and damage was estimated at more than $5 million.
Jun 22, 1981: An F3 tornado injured 3 people in Worcester County.
Sep 29, 1974: An F3 tornado injured one person as it hit Middlesex and Essex Counties.
Aug 28, 1973: An F4 tornado killed 4 and injured 36 in West Stockbridge as it tracked 9 miles from New York into Berkshire County.
Sep 13, 1971: An F3 tornado killed one person in Worcester County.
Oct 3, 1970: An F3 tornado killed one person in Worcester County. This tornado was on the ground for 35 miles.
Jun 9, 1953: The great 1953 Worcester tornado killed 90 and injured 1228 when it hit Worcester. The tornado had a path 40 miles long and up to 900 yards wide.
Jun 9, 1953: A separate F3 tornado hit Franklin in southern Massachusetts on the same day as the great Worcester tornado, injuring 17 people. The Franklin tornado had a path length of 28 miles.

Florida's surprise tropical disturbance 93L weakens
Invest 93L sped over Florida yesterday afternoon, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches over the center part of the state. Winds gusted as high as 29 mph at Daytona Beach as the storm came ashore. The storm has a rather unusual origin for a tropical disturbance--it began as a cluster of thunderstorms called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that pushed across southern New England on May 30. On May 31, the MCS emerged over the ocean, and rotated clockwise towards Florida, steered by a large high pressure system centered over Kentucky. The center of the disturbance stayed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, a region of low pressure developed, and intense thunderstorms began to build on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, 93L had grown organized enough to earn the designation 93L from NHC. However, passage over Florida disrupted 93L, and the storm is moving with such a fast forward speed--about 25 mph--that it has struggled to regroup. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and SSTs in the Gulf are about 27°C (81°F), 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, so it is possible that 93L could make a comeback. NHC is currently giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. I think these odds should be higher, at least 10%, given the recent increase in heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of 93L, as seen on satellite imagery. Steering currents will keep 93L moving quickly to the west-southwest today and Friday, and 93L should make landfall in Mexico just south of Brownsville, Texas, on Saturday afternoon.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from 93L's passage over Florida yesterday.

Central Caribbean disturbance
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The computer models are generally showing only very slow development of the disturbance over the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday. Heavy rains have already hit Jamaica, where a flash flood watch is posted.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.

Catch my intro to the 2011 hurricane season on Internet radio
I'll be discussing the coming hurricane season on our Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour, today (Thursday) at 4:30pm EDT. Fellow wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche will be hosting the show. We'll talk about the latest model runs, hurricane research, modeling accuracy, and hurricane climatology, and answer any questions listeners email in or call in. The email address to ask questions is broadcast@wunderground.com. We'll also discuss the Massachusetts tornadoes.

Jeff Masters
Tornado Over My House
Tornado Over My House
Oh, what a crazy day. I live in Massachusetts and we had 5 tornadoes today and so far 4 people have been killed. I still can't believe it. I have never seen anything like this. Just so hard to believe.
Double Trouble
Double Trouble
Two huge clouds forming just beyond the hill. The Civil War battle of New Market (May 15, 1864) lies just beyond the tree line.
Devestating Storm
Devestating Storm
Last night's storm as it moves out to sea. South of Boston we were extremely fortunate with only strong winds & lightening. The same storm produced tornadoes, significant damage and loss of life in central MA.
6/1/11 Plainfield MA
6/1/11 Plainfield MA

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nocaneindy:


Yeah that's what I figured. And sadly yes, it'll likely be gone all too soon.


I wouldn't necessarily say sadly. Yes it'll be easier for tropical systems to develop but it'll return the sea breeze storms we get here on the gulf coast and help relieve this drought.

For Houston:

Precip. this year -- 6.96" Normal -- 19.15"

Haven't had a month with more than 1" of rain since January, and had less than .5" of rain since March 31st.
Quoting pressureman:
Well cane watch we will just have to wait and see you bombed out on 93L ...i think you need to read the extended charts for the caribbean sea then you tell me if something will develop...sorry no way i can see this thing cming close to developing with the hostile conditions..


What, don't tell me there's more 'strong easterly currents' that are gonna tear this thing apart.
I got a new blog entry up and if you have the time I'd love your criticism.

93L is Dying, Invest in Caribbean, and Extreme Drought in Texas
I lurk every day and sometimes post

Tonight I post because every single time I come here, since your hurricane season started, more time is spent wondering who is who, who pretends to be who, who is banned, who should be banned, who used to be who etc etc etc

that you need to know:

You incite what you repeat! over and over again

stop talking about them, stop even trying to figure it out

move on, do what you are here to do

talk about the weather
1007. aquak9
good morning (or good something, wherever you might be) from NE Fla. Another cloudless sunrise.

ktymisty- we are addicted, we talk, we wu-mail, we laugh. If all we did was just post graphs, charts, and discussions about graphs and charts, we'd lose our humanity.
Quoting ktymisty:
I lurk every day and sometimes post

Tonight I post because every single time I come here, since your hurricane season started, more time is spent wondering who is who, who pretends to be who, who is banned, who should be banned, who used to be who etc etc etc

that you need to know:

You incite what you repeat! over and over again

stop talking about them, stop even trying to figure it out

move on, do what you are here to do

talk about the weather


I fully agree, I usually don't comment on here until after midnight or so. Before then this place is packed with a million people and a million different posts, not only do many posts get lost, if you wait 5 minutes someone will ask the same question you have and all that happens is it gets filled with crap being repeated. Makes it easy to lurk though, everytime you refresh there are 20+ new posts lol
Quoting aquak9:
ktymisty- we are addicted, we talk, we wu-mail, we laugh. If all we did was just post graphs, charts, and discussions about graphs and charts, we'd lose our humanity.


I agree. 1
1010. IKE
93L....a lonely GOM invest....


1011. aquak9
warhawk- I have seen this place so crazy, I've seen 60 posts in the first five minutes one time, when doc posted a new blog.

"Back in the day"- there were no numbers on the posts, no quote buttons, no avatars. Only a time stamp. Used to have to write down the time of the last stamp, then come back later to catch up.
1012. aquak9
G'morning there Ike. Figured your first post would be a QPF with negative numbers or something equally depressing.
1013. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
G'morning there Ike. Figured your first post would be a QPF with negative numbers or something equally depressing.
5 day QPF shows some rain on the way for us....woohoo!


1014. aquak9
If that played out, that would be oh-so-sweet.

Gonna hafta pull part of the garden this weekend- just can't justify watering, when it's never enough. :(
For you Ike.0-0-0 and hits on the conus in the last 13 months 1(barely bonnie) 0-0.Well i hope the young folks will go outside and do something constructive today, far thier is nothing in the tropics anytime soon to get excited about in the tropics.Well for us normal folks its up early and already in the office.GOd BLESS and good day ike and aquak.P.s Ike stay on those young folks to goout and be constructive.We dont need our upcoming generations to nothing more than computer nerds and couch potatoes.
1016. Hugo7
If only L93 could get some more moisture and move further south it would stand a good chance at becoming a TS.
1017. pottery
Good Morning.
Post 992, notice the almost complete lack of SAL over the Atlantic.
There is very little dry air to slow the development of any T-Wave that emerges from the coast of Africa.
The wave off the coast right now could be one to keep an eye on...
1018. IKE
Morning SAINT.
................................................. ..............................................
Wind shear....


850mb vorticity.....


1019. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:
Morning SAINT.
................................................. ..............................................

850mb vorticity.....


Looks much better.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Pre-94L is getting stronger on 850 vort and consolidating and with shear decreasing closer as well as the help of D-Max we should be seeing fireworks by sunrise


Good Morning Ike and Aquak 9.

Seems like the "rain gods" are flirt with us and promising some lquid sunshine. Lets hope they keep their promises this time.
Good morning

Another day and same conditions aloft over the SW Caribbean. Shear remains too high for the low to develop.

Upper level winds continue to shunt whatever thunderstorms develop off to the East of the circulation.
Miami NWS Discussion

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS VERIFIES...EASTERLY WINDS
AND THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASING PWAT
VALUES WILL HELP BRING THE RAIN CHANCES BACK THROUGH THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK.
morning bloggers

0.0.0. continues

179 days remain
1025. IKE
Caribbean system may get upped to 20% on the next TWO. Looks further north and east to me from where it was yesterday. Maybe I'm wrong without the visible to look at.

93L looks hopelessly dead at 0%.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning bloggers

0.0.0. continues

179 days remain


Hi there KOTG

More of the same for today it would seem. In fact shear has been rising just off the coast of Nicaragua and the only pocket of low shear is too far East of the low for it to take advantage of. Diffluence aloft around the windfield still producing deep convection to the East and NE.
1027. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Another day and same conditions aloft over the SW Caribbean. Shear remains too high for the low to develop.

Upper level winds continue to shunt whatever thunderstorms develop off to the East of the circulation.

Raining here for the last 1/2 hour. More to come.
Hope you get some more too!
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Another day and same conditions aloft over the SW Caribbean. Shear remains too high for the low to develop.

Upper level winds continue to shunt whatever thunderstorms develop off to the East of the circulation.
confidence has dimished significantly for any dev and it may be nothing but t storms and heavy rain shearing to the east
Quoting IKE:
Caribbean system may get upped to 20% on the next TWO. Looks further north and east to me from where it was yesterday. Maybe I'm wrong without the visible to look at.

93L looks hopelessly dead at 0%.


93L really is done. I agree about the Caribbean 'thing', the convection to the north-east really looks like it has spin, looks like it's own system.
Quoting pottery:

Raining here for the last 1/2 hour. More to come.
Hope you get some more too!


Good for you. None here since midnight but still living in hope !
Quoting pottery:

Raining here for the last 1/2 hour. More to come.
Hope you get some more too!


Good morning. For me in PR, is more of the same,rain,rain and more rain.Flooding and mudslides will be a big concern, not only in PR but in Jamaica,Haiti and DR.
1034. Gearsts
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Is normal for that jetstream to be there for this time of the year? ^^ sorry of my question is stupid :(
Well, I have to get going for an early start today but will be back later. Have a good morning all
1036. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Good for you. None here since midnight but still living in hope !

I hope when it starts, it is manageable....
Have a Good One!
Morning..... wow 93 sure did die.... what happened to all of that gulf fuel? Lol

1038. IKE

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


93L really is done. I agree about the Caribbean 'thing', the convection to the north-east really looks like it has spin, looks like it's own system.
Most of the convection w/the Caribbean disturbance is east of where the NHC has the low...unless it's moved...


Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning..... wow 93 sure did die.... what happened to all of that gulf fuel? Lol

moved too fast to take advantage of it
1040. IKE

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning..... wow 93 sure did die.... what happened to all of that gulf fuel? Lol

And 93L should be deactivated.


1041. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning..... wow 93 sure did die.... what happened to all of that gulf fuel? Lol


Wrong octane rating....
1042. IKE
Here comes 93L.....


Quoting IKE:

Most of the convection w/the Caribbean disturbance is east of where the NHC has the low...unless it's moved...




Looks further east than what they have it. If I am seeing correctly looks just to the SE of Jamaica.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Another day and same conditions aloft over the SW Caribbean. Shear remains too high for the low to develop.

Upper level winds continue to shunt whatever thunderstorms develop off to the East of the circulation.

That upper-level flow looks like it wil retard any development through the weekend.
Quoting Gearsts:
Is normal for that jetstream to be there for this time of the year? ^^ sorry of my question is stupid :(


don't really know that
one would have to start looking at maps from previous years to see any abnormal setups
i reckon maybe
kill the invest. not so fast now its slowed down and is spinning now where does it go? i say 20%
Morning IKE. Was jamming in to some Zeppelin 3. Love that pedal steel guitar on Tangerine. How's the rain looking for the panhandle. You guys still very dry up there?
Quoting IKE:

Most of the convection w/the Caribbean disturbance is east of where the NHC has the low...unless it's moved...




I guess we'll find out what the NHC thinks in a few minutes...
Quoting eyestalker:

Texas needs the rain.

On a side note relating to the SAL map, which also picks up on "dust" off the East Coast... note the CIMSS maps are terrible, it's plainly obvious...I wouldn't put much stock into any of them. (I mean, honestly...what do people from Wisconsin know about tropical weather...Nothing!) Their shear map notoriously overestimates shear and gives inconsistent shear details in relation to location, while the trusty SSD shear maps always tell you what speed of wind shear in knots exists where precisely and accurately. Their shear tendency map is slightly more alluring because it is exclusive to CIMSS, but it's not really to be trusted. Overall their products aren't really the best and shouldn't be relied upon.

The CIMSS products are used extensively here to illustrate and forecast shear. What other avenue would you recommend?
1050. IKE

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Morning IKE. Was jamming in to some Zeppelin 3. Love that pedal steel guitar on Tangerine. How's the rain looking for the panhandle. You guys still very dry up there?
Dry as a bone. Lake I live on is down about 1 1/2 feet in the last 2-3 months.
1051. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE REGION OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE MEXICAN COAST IS PRODUCING LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Happy Friday Weather Lovers, have a great day!
Does look like a ton of fuel it the carib
already posted by speedy there

thanks ike
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I guess we'll find out what the NHC thinks in a few minutes...


Well, it would seem that they have changed absolutely nothing. Doesn't even look like the wording has changed.
1056. IKE
0-0-0 rocks on Zeppelin style.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BjiRKBC05c
Quoting IKE:

Dry as a bone. Lake I live on is down about 1 1/2 feet in the last 2-3 months.

1 1/2 feet. Wow.
1058. IKE

Quoting cat5hurricane:

1 1/2 feet. Wow.
It's down that far. Too far.

"""ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...""".......


Doesn't sound like the NHC is as convinced it will develop as they use to be.
1059. IKE

Quoting IKE:

It's down that far. Too far.

"""ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR...""".......


Doesn't sound like the NHC is as convinced it will develop as they use to be.
shear won't back off and upper levels conditions remain the same no change until those things switch it up no dev can happen
1061. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shear won't back off and upper levels conditions remain the same no change until those things switch it up no dev can happen
So much for the Caymans getting beneficial rain. All of the convection is east of 80 degrees.
1062. pottery
Blogger Swamplilliy is celebrating his Birthday today.
So we are having a Birthday Party all day long.
Happy Birthday Swampy!!

the TWO will put a cap on the comments this am lot of disappointed bloggers today and for the weekend but hey its only jun 3 and its doing exactly as its suppose to be doing thats making it hard for anything to form its early real early and it could be another 30 days or more before we see the real deal come along
93 gave some excitement and that was an anomoly storm. So now disappointment sets in.
Quoting IKE:

So much for the Caymans getting beneficial rain. All of the convection is east of 80 degrees.
Yep. Still waiting :(
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yep. Still waiting :(

Don't fret :), I think we'll get enough before long.
1067. IKE
If the Caribbean blob tried to come north, it would get sheared to death....ain't happening anytime soon...




1010 IKE "93L....a lonely GOM invest...."


Thanks for the pic. After mucho hours of no ATCF reports, was wondering if it had been dried into a naked swirl... or non-existence.

Which woulda been a shame when between 18-to-12hours ago, 93L's travel speed (13mph or 21km/h) had finally dropped enough below its max.sus.winds (20knots or 37km/h) to allow the convection energy to build up circulation.

Quite a difference from the Florida crossing when its travel speed (34mph or 54.7km/h) exceeded 93L's max.sus.winds* (25knots or 46.3km/h), when the convection center was moving so fast that circulation couldn't be wrapped around it.

Eyeballing 93L's position in your picture then comparing it to the GreatCircleMap track, the travel speed appears to have further slowed. And the center appears to have successfully recurved for the third time (inre the area shown on the GCmap) to a more northward path.
Which is good, the slowdown and a continuance of that recurvature means 93L still has some small chance carrying rain into the Texas drought.

* ATCF rounds the speed of MaximumSustainedWinds to the nearest 5knots.
So it coulda been as high as ~51km/h

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the TWO will put a cap on the comments this am lot of disappointed bloggers today and for the weekend but hey its only jun 3 and its doing exactly as its suppose to be doing thats making it hard for anything to form its early real early and it could be another 30 days or more before we see the real deal come along


Well put, keeper, well put.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Don't fret :), I think we'll get enough before long.
Sure hope so. I see it is getting dark towards town but just a few clouds up this way.
1072. DDR
.7 inches @ my location this morning in Trinidad,more rain expected over the weekend
1073. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:
Get out there and enjoy June, people. No storms coming.

Karma and climatology, they are both bitc...
Sure....why not....lets go use a shovel for 8 hours.....at $10 an hour? LOL

Today: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Calm wind becoming east northeast between 5 and 10 mph.


Vorticity in the SW Caribbean looking good now but decreasing with 93L.



Wind shear does not look too bad where the blob is and developing an anticyclone. Looks like it is decreasing.
1067. IKE 8:16 AM EDT on June 03, 2011
If the Caribbean blob tried to come north, it would get sheared to death....ain't happening anytime soon...


Good Morning Ike....That is about correct. Here is part of the am NCEP discussion with regard to the strong shear because of the positon of the sub-tropical jet just north of PR; this system is going cause lots of rain but any move to the North = death.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
702 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2011

CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN TO THE NORTH OF 20N THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BETWEEN 80W-50W...AND BROAD TROUGH PATTERN IS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FURTHERMORE... THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES BY SUNDAY MORNING...TO LIKELY ENHANCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS IT MEANDERS NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS.

......AS A RESULT...THE GFS IS ALSO MAKING
CORRECTIONS TO AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. INITIALLY THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA. ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES IS TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS JET ALOFT SETTLES NORTH OF THE OF THE ISLANDS AND LONG FETCH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHERMORE...A SECONDARY AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. BUT EXPECTING THE MOST ACTIVE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS/SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE DAY...AND BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED WHILE SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS RISK OF ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS HIGH.



Good morning to one and all. I'd like to wish everybody a Happy Bahamas Labour Day holiday.

We have excellent weather for the various parades that will be held, and later today I'm sure many will make their way to the beaches and parks of our fair isle to celebrate and relax with friends and family. I do have to work today, but luckily for me it's a late start, so I have a few minutes to drink a coffee and peruse the blog before I go... lol

Quoting ktymisty:
I lurk every day and sometimes post

Tonight I post because every single time I come here, since your hurricane season started, more time is spent wondering who is who, who pretends to be who, who is banned, who should be banned, who used to be who etc etc etc

that you need to know:

You incite what you repeat! over and over again

stop talking about them, stop even trying to figure it out

move on, do what you are here to do

talk about the weather



AMEN!
1078. IKE
Here comes 93L...barreling toward the coast...


Quoting IKE:

5 day QPF shows some rain on the way for us....woohoo!


This is a memorable post, just for having Ike say woohoo about anything.... lol

Unfortunately, the southern tip of the peninsula is still absolutely dry in that scenario....

It's really amazingly dry here for early June.
1080. IKE
May unemployment at 9.1% It's going up. Now pick up that shovel.

And good morning weathermanwannabe.
1081. Jax82
72 hours in, still 0-0-0. And we are 0 fer 2 with invests. Yippeeeeee!
Well Ike I for one hope all these bloggers continue to be disappointed.If they were old enough to have go through the hardships the folks on the Gulf Coast have went through in the last 7 years I dont think they would be disappointed.lets see higher insurance, having to rebuild homes and lives.Their are still communties here on the MS. gulf coast that have nowhere near came back to normal.I guess you can blame it on the ignorance of youth.I will admit that I was once a innocent youth so I understand.In closing though; us that are old enough to know better hope that the prior 2 years for the conus continues.As a matter of fact all the tropical basins.We are not talking about winning the lottery or any other joyous event.Wishing for something that is destructive and life threatening is totally immature.Tracking them and learning can be done from past history dont wish anything for the present or future.Seen a Good ad the other day, take a child fishing and create a lifetime of memories.Parents please take the time for the youth they are our future.
1083. hydrus
NAM 84 hours.
1084. MTWX
Quoting IKE:

5 day QPF shows some rain on the way for us....woohoo!



Thats all they need in Montana is more rain.... The Missouri is the highest it has been in 60 years!
1086. Jax82
Someone needs to create a video game for wishcasting hurricanes. Set up a perfect environment for development, decide on the track, and make it hit your house. That way you can have all the satisfaction of destruction and everyone else can still have their home in the real world. The game would be a hit for some on here.
1088. hydrus
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well Ike I for one hope all these bloggers continue to be disappointed.If they were old enough to have go through the hardships the folks on the Gulf Coast have went through in the last 7 years I dont think they would be disappointed.lets see higher insurance, having to rebuild homes and lives.Their are still communties here on the MS. gulf coast that have nowhere near came back to normal.I guess you can blame it on the ignorance of youth.I will admit that I was once a innocent youth so I understand.In closing though; us that are old enough to know better hope that the prior 2 years for the conus continues.As a matter of fact all the tropical basins.We are not talking about winning the lottery or any other joyous event.Wishing for something that is destructive and life threatening is totally immature.Tracking them and learning can be done from past history dont wish anything for the present or future.Seen a Good ad the other day, take a child fishing and create a lifetime of memories.Parents please take the time for the youth they are our future.
Good post. I would think that the young people that post here have a intense fascination with storms, and that curiosity gets the better of them when the possibility of a tropical cyclone affecting there area exists. Wanting to experience the power of nature is the driving force behind the seemingly willful and wanton appetite for destruction segments that appear on this blog. We both know that if any of these characters gets blasted by a major hurricane, there curiosity will be sufficiently sated to the point where they will never long for such an experience as long as they live.
Destin Jeff amen.Thats sad Ike I take it personally everytime I have to reduce numbers at our company.But I assure you if some in our country worried as much about creating jobs(and thier are a lot of oppurtunites example gas prices in Kuwait are a 1.25 a gallon.safe offshore drilling in our country could produce the same result as well thousands of jobs and economic recovery.)and restoring morals in this country as they do about thier own personal agendas and gw i think you would see a dramatic improvement.The people during WWII went through probably the worst hardships ever sen in this country.But they banded together all for one one for all.To much seperatism now and very little unity.God Bless and good day.
Thanks HYdrus and spot on.
Quoting hydrus:
Good post. I would think that the young people that post here have a intense fascination with storms, and that curiosity gets the better of them when the possibility of a tropical cyclone affecting there area exists. Wanting to experience the power of nature is the driving force behind the seemingly willful and wanton appetite for destruction segments that appear on this blog. We both know that if any of these characters gets blasted by a major hurricane, there curiosity will be sufficiently sated to the point where they will never long for such an experience as long as they live.


Spot on. I confess to having this very feeling while I was on holiday in Florida in July last year. Last year was the first season that I've learnt anything about hurricanes, and seeing the damage done just last season, one with relatively few landfalls, particularly for the high activity, I think Bonnie was enough for me.
1092. Grothar
Good morning my Weather Friends,

Another hot and humid and DRY day down here in SE Florida.

I see our "systems" did not do much last night.

Oh yes, Swamplilly has a birthday today so stop by ORCA's blog and wish him a Happy Happy Birthday!

You all have a great Friday and I will check back in or lurk when I get a chance.

1095. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Good post. I would think that the young people that post here have a intense fascination with storms, and that curiosity gets the better of them when the possibility of a tropical cyclone affecting there area exists. Wanting to experience the power of nature is the driving force behind the seemingly willful and wanton appetite for destruction segments that appear on this blog. We both know that if any of these characters gets blasted by a major hurricane, there curiosity will be sufficiently sated to the point where they will never long for such an experience as long as they live.


Can you all get off your soap-boxes. We need the wood.
1096. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Globe-grabber!
1098. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


I am shovel-ready. Where's my money?
Checks in the mail.
1099. Grothar
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







P.S. Its Swampliliys BD today :)
1104. cg2916
Huge comment tropical update coming soon...
1105. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


Danke for the shot of western Africa. jasonis2010coolmanxxxweatherman has not posted one in quite awhile, and it is good of you to step in to take up the slack.

"looks like the African Wave Train might get started early this year!"

...and even though I put that in quotes, I still feel compelled to fly the Sarcasm Flag to prevent the misunderstanding that I say that seriously.


Got you covered on that Jeff. I just assume everything you say is sarcastic. The lines I don't understand, I just assume you are being serious.

That really is a big wave, though. I do want to post another image.

1106. FLdewey
Although we could use some water...



Soooo crispy dhaddy,
Oh good grief, quit assigning desires that don't exist. Hopin' that some rain will fall on several majorly intense droughts ain't the same as DOOMcasting a devastating hurricane.
Now ifn ya see something other than a tropical system that has a chance of moisturizing Mexico-thru-Texas-to-Florida or the northwesternCaribbean, give a shout and we'll be a"wishcast"ing on that too.

Not that I've ever seen any evidence that wishcasting has ever worked. Have you?
you are on a roll destin lol post 1100 pretty much stole my thunder.I dont personally know the gentleman grothar, but I understand in many mail post i have recieved about him that he is elderly,Heck Im getting older grouchier and my memory isnt as good as it once was.But i still Know the truth when I say it and with a very tough grit of the teeth people like that I just say i will pray for you lol.
1109. cg2916
Quoting aspectre:
Oh good grief, quit assigning desires that don't exist. Hopin' that some rain will fall on several majorly intense droughts ain't the same as DOOMcasting a devastating hurricane.
Now ifn ya see something other than a tropical system that has a chance of moisturizing Mexico-thru-Texas-to-Florida or the northwesternCaribbean, give a shout and we'll be a"wishcast"ing on that too.

Not that I've ever seen any evidence that wishcasting has ever worked. Have you?


2005
1110. IKE

Quoting FLdewey:
Season = bust
It's over. Lets move along here folks.


Quoting DestinJeff:


Awesome! More than one.
As soon as I open my account. I'll get to it soon.

................................................. ............................................

93L.....


1112. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:


No it isn't. I mean if 90L, 91L, 92L, and 93L had been designated by the NHC the way THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN then we would be at 4 storms already. And pre-94L could be named within 72 hours if Reed had his way. That makes 5.

Now what was that about a busted season? Silly cashew-choking monkey!


The cashew attacked ME.
1111.....I didn't see mention of a sarcasm flag there.... lol
Quoting eyestalker:

Texas needs the rain.

On a side note relating to the SAL map, which also picks up on "dust" off the East Coast... note the CIMSS maps are terrible, it's plainly obvious...I wouldn't put much stock into any of them. (I mean, honestly...what do people from Wisconsin know about tropical weather...Nothing!) Their shear map notoriously overestimates shear and gives inconsistent shear details in relation to location, while the trusty SSD shear maps always tell you what speed of wind shear in knots exists where precisely and accurately. Their shear tendency map is slightly more alluring because it is exclusive to CIMSS, but it's not really to be trusted. Overall their products aren't really the best and shouldn't be relied upon.

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
1111.....I didn't see mention of a sarcasm flag there.... lol

From the words of our wise elder statesman, Grothar... (emphasis mine)

Quoting Grothar:


Got you covered on that Jeff. I just assume everything you say is sarcastic. The lines I don't understand, I just assume you are being serious.



1117. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Can you all get off your soap-boxes. We need the wood.
Especially at your age...Good morning Gro...:)
1118. Bayside
What a beautiful day in SE Virignia! 70's, sunny, light breeze. I love a nice break from the heat. Guess I'll catch up on yard work and garden work this weekend.
1119. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


Got you covered on that Jeff. I just assume everything you say is sarcastic. The lines I don't understand, I just assume you are being serious.

That really is a big wave, though. I do want to post another image.


I posted earlier, the fact that there is virtually no SAL Dust or Dry Air across the Eq. Atl.
That wave, and the ones coming behind will have pretty good conditions.
1121. FLdewey
If you stay on your soap box for more than 4 hours...
Quoting jeffs713:

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.


And, they are updated only every 3 hours...so the readings may appear to be off. CIMSS is a very good site for wind shear.
1123. pottery
Quoting FLdewey:
If you stay on your soap box for more than 4 hours...
... call all the Ladies you know?
Quoting FLdewey:
If you stay on your soap box for more than 4 hours...

Drink some Gatorade, you will likely need it after those 4 hours...
I am not good with posting MJO charts but I agree with some of the earlier comments this morning...Once this area in the Caribbean dissapates, and given June climatology and MJO movement away from the Atlantic Basin, it might be several weeks before we see another viable disturbance.

On that note, taking my Daughter fishing tommorow morning and everyone have a great weekend...... :)
aspectre "Not that I've ever seen any evidence that wishcasting has ever worked. Have you?"
1109 cg2916 "2005 "

By the time Katrina was set to make it's final landfall, people were wishin' that the 2005 season would go away. Didn't work.
1128. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


atmospherically speaking, true. but they will have a difficult time against the thundering herd of "climatology rules the roost" posts on the blog.

those waves see The Chart enough, and they lose self- confidence.

and don't forget our secret weapon: Ike.

LOL to all of that!
heheheheh
1129. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


no amount of head-pounding will rid me of that visual.

thanks for that.
There is always the shrine . It is good medicine for enucleating unwanted visions seared into ones memory....
1132. Bayside
Quoting jeffs713:

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.


Madison, WI was a great place to grow up! My father was a Prof. of Meteorology/atmospheric science at UW, but mainly did research at SSEC. I grew up watching (not litterally) their products being designed and tested, for example on the ER-2 (science version of the U-2 spy plane). Though retired from UW and NASA, he still works with both. I share stories about this blog a lot, escpecially the promising students like Levi and even the ones that gloat when they get it right and annoy me. I didn't realize that I would have such an interest in meteorology until it was a bit late to change careers, plus growing up I wanted to be something other than what my father and brother were... silly me.
1133. cg2916
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Quoting jeffs713:

UW's products are actually very good, and bear in mind that all of these shear and SAL measurements are done from SPACE. As in anywhere from 250 to 23000 MILES up. Its like looking at the rind of an apple from 200 yards away, and asking the molecular orientation. Its far from exact. Is it a good guideline? Yes. Is it a decent substitute for physical measurements with a balloon? Absolutely not. Its also some of the best we have. So unless you have a better alternative, please step off that soapbox.

Also, in regards to UW not knowing much about tropical meteorology... puh-leeze. Physical location of a university has very little to do with their expertise. Here are locations of some of the better-known met schools in the states:
Univ. of Wisconsin
Univ. of Michigan (Dr. M's alma mater)
Penn State Univ.
Texas A&M Univ.
Univ. of Miami
Univ. of Oklahoma
North Carolina State Univ.
Cornell Univ.
Univ. of Kansas
Purdue Univ.
UCLA
Iowa State
Valparaiso
Univ. of Arizona

So, as you can see... location in terms of college quality = nothing.
Good Post.

But is there a reason you left both CSU and UColorado off? Both have very good met programs and CSU is very well respected in tropical meteorology. (Right there with FSU in terms of the top tropical met school.)
1135. hydrus
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Its not interesting. There was a cloud over my back yard and the NOGaPS developed it into a cat-2 hurricane.
I think that low dust, high SSTs, etc are going to have to work darned hard to beat the subsidence and shear from the upper jet for the next little while. Anybody think we have a serious chance at seeing formation before the mid-month period?


And, I have to admit 3 days into the season seems like a record for early "bust" forecast comments.... lol or did I miss one yesterday? :o)
1137. cg2916
Quoting hydrus:
Its not interesting. There was a cloud over my back yard and the NOGaPS developed it into a cat-2 hurricane.


LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:
Good Post.

But is there a reason you left both CSU and UColorado off? Both have very good met programs and CSU is very well respected in tropical meteorology. (Right there with FSU in terms of the top tropical met school.)

CU's program isn't on the same level as CSU's, but it is up there. (no idea how they got left off) I totally forgot about FSU's program.
1139. IKE
Batten down the hatches...93L is moving in....


1140. cg2916
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think that low dust, high SSTs, etc are going to have to work darned hard to beat the subsidence and shear from the upper jet for the next little while. Anybody think we have a serious chance at seeing formation before the mid-month period?


And, I have to admit 3 days into the season seems like a record for early "bust" forecast comments.... lol or did I miss one yesterday? :o)


Hey Baha! Haven't seen you in a while.

Yes, I think it's a record, although I think last year 456 might have been yelling at a troll for busting it in May.
Sure do miss Wx456.... Thank goodness for the other "young whippersnappers" who have taken up the call....
Anyhoo, gotta go get ready for work, so I'll see u guys later.... enjoy your day!
1143. cg2916
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sure do miss Wx456.... Thank goodness for the other "young whippersnappers" who have taken up the call....


I know!
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.

yep it seem correct
also I would like to add that the steering suggest that Pre-94L will shift east to about 77-75W before pulling NW-WNW
1145. Levi32
I agree....Weather456 is greatly missed.
Latest ATCF on 93L

Travel speed down to 10.5mph(16.9km/h) over the last 12hours, and max.sus.winds down to 15knots(27.8km/h). Still classified as a Low with a pressure of 1012millibars.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.
1148. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.


Interesting. I wish they'd go ahead and tag it an invest so I can have my floater satellite -.- That's all I want lol.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-003

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N 79W AT 05/1800Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR 03/1800Z CANCELED AT 03/1130Z.


YES WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A FLIGHT INTO PRE-94L ABOUT TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Levi32:
I agree....Weather456 is greatly missed.


Ditto.
Unless the Caribbean disturbance becomes better organized by that time, they will not fly.
Did 2008 have a named storm in June?
1139 IKE "Batten down the hatches...93L is moving in...."

As of 12pmGMT today, 93L was 324miles(~521kilometres) from SouthPadreIslandInternationalAirport. If it heads towards Brownsville at its present travel speed of 10.5mph(16.9km/h), 93L will make landfall at ~6:52pmGMT(1:52pmCDT)tomorrow.

Still enough time to be dried out completely by the Texas barbeque...
...or to draw some moisture from the Gulf up into itself.
1153. DARPAsockpuppet

Holy cow that's a long post... shorten it up (or link it?)
Quoting cg2916:
93L

93L is pretty much RIP. It's just a naked swirl.



It does still have surprisingly good vorticity.

It has barely any divergence going with it.

Pre-94L

The low and the convection are starting to move together.



Remember that while the convection moves west, the low will stay in place for about 5 days.

I can spot a possible COC trying to form at about 15N, 77W.



It's becoming more vertically stacked. The pictures below are 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb from top to bottom.







The subtropical jet stream is still there creating shear, although it's starting to back off a little. As has been mentioned before, it is developing an anticyclone, which will help.

Interesting to note that only the NOGAPS does anything with this system. However, the GFS and ECMWF do show a system breaking off nd exiting the Caribbean via Puerto Rico.

If I got anything wrong, please correct me.
Agree, I'm not an expert but it seems everything is moving eastward, if anything develops it will continue to affect as it has in the past few days Hispaniola and exiting via Puerto Rico as GFS and ECWF suggests.
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying
you had to quote it? really?
I blew my forecast because the kinetic potential stratospheric vorticity field stratification transfer correlation was miscalculated or overlooked.


Really it makes sense if you don't think about it.





Quoting Twinkster:
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying

click the "-" sign and hide it
Quoting Twinkster:
can someone get rid of that long post it is very annoying
Sorry, didn't know the blog has posting restrictions. New here.


Shear slowly going bye bye.




shear map encouraging for development anyway
Standby!
12Z NAM @ 72hrs

300mb



850mb

You can see rather favorable conditions lie ahead in the NAM, This is the result @ 84hrs.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Sorry, didn't know the blog has posting restrictions. New here.


Wasn't you, you are fine :)
1169. ncstorm
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
12Z NAM @ 72hrs

300mb



850mb



Whats that off the VA/NC Coast?
Quoting ncstorm:


Whats that off the VA/NC Coast?


Area of low pressure riding the trough, Frontal.
Looks like their saying drought conditions should be improving in needed areas and increasing in others June through August.

1172. ncstorm
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Area of low pressure riding the trough, Frontal.


the 6zGFS has that same storm off the coast too..
1173. Patrap
co2now.org


394.35ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for May 2011

Preliminary data released June 1, 2011 (Mauna Loa Observatory: Scripps CO2)
U.S. Hazards Assessment

1175. NRAamy
Really it makes sense if you don't think about it.

that takes care of about 99.9% of this blog.....
The actual COC fot the Caribbean AOI appears to around 12.5N/81W today looks at rgb loop, ascat also appears to show this also.
1178. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

I posted earlier, the fact that there is virtually no SAL Dust or Dry Air across the Eq. Atl.
That wave, and the ones coming behind will have pretty good conditions.


I saw that post the other day. It is true. They have been receiving a lot of light showers that seems to be keeping the dust at a minimum. How is pot today? Looks like someone called me 'elderly' earlier on the blog.
1179. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
Quoting IKE:

It's over. Lets move along here folks.


As soon as I open my account. I'll get to it soon.

................................................. ............................................

93L.....


lol 93l cannot die...