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Tornadoes pound North Carolina and Virginia, killing 25

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on April 17, 2011

In a stunning display of violence, dozens of tornadoes rampaged through North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday, killing at least 25 people, injuring at least 130, and damaging or destroying at least 450 homes and businesses. Hardest hit in yesterday's outbreak was the the town of Askewville in northeast North Carolina, where a violent tornado that was likely at least an EF-3 ripped homes off their foundations and killed eleven people. Also hard-hit was the Raleigh area, where a mile-wide EF-3 tornado with 140 - 150 mph winds roared through the downtown region, killing five people. The 22 deaths in North Carolina made yesterday's outbreak the deadliest day for tornadoes in the state since 1984, when the infamous March 28 tornado outbreak killed 57 people and injured 1248.


Figure 1. Viewer-uploaded photo sent to WRAL of the Raleigh tornado shortly before it leveled a Lowes store in Sanford, NC.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity loop of the Raleigh, North Carolina tornado at 3:59pm EDT as the twister passed through downtown. Note the classic hook-shaped echo of the parent mesocyclone in the rotating severe thunderstorms that spawned the tornado.


Figure 3. Doppler radar velocity image of the Raleigh, North Carolina tornado at 3:59pm EDT.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 105 tornado reports on Saturday, 113 on Friday, and 23 on Thursday, bringing the 3-day total to 241 twisters. These preliminary tornado reports are typically an over-count of about 15%, so the 3-day April 14 - 16 2011 tornado outbreak likely will end up with 200 - 210 confirmed tornadoes. This is a huge number of tornadoes; an average April typically has just 150 tornadoes across the entire U.S.

On Thursday, the first day of this remarkable outbreak, 23 tornadoes and numerous deadly severe thunderstorms tore through Oklahoma and Arkansas, killing at least nine people. An EF-3 tornado hit the small town of Tushka, Oklahoma, population 350, ripping off the roof of the local high school and destroying dozens of buildings in Tushka. Two people were killed and 25 injured. The tornado moved over farmland and dissipated a short time later, but the squall line that spawned the tornado moved into Arkansas Thursday night, spawning severe thunderstorm winds that killed seven more people. The outbreak ramped up significantly on Friday, with 113 tornado reports. The deadliest tornado of the day an EF-3 twister that hit Prattville, Alabama at 10:55pm CDT, killing three people in a mobile home, and injuring four others. One of the most damaging tornadoes occurred just west of Jackson, Mississippi, when an EF-3 tornado touched down just south of I-20, crossed the expressway, flipping cars and semis, then plowed through the town of Clinton. At least nine people were injured in Clinton, and Malaco Records, one of the top Blues/Gospel/Soul labels in the country, was destroyed by the tornado.


Figure 4. Satellite image from 21:40 UTC (5:40pm EDT) April 16, 2011, showing the strong low pressure system that brought yesterday's severe weather outbreak. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

WRAL has an impressive time lapse animation from a skycam on a tall skyscraper in Raleigh showing what at the time was believed to be a rain-wrapped Raleigh tornado moving through downtown, but was actually just a thunderstorm downdraft.

Wikipedia has a nice summary of the tornado outbreak.

Jeff Masters
Northeast Raleigh Tornado
Northeast Raleigh Tornado
Tornado moved from 440 Beltline in NNW direction towards 540 Beltline severly damaged homes along Skycrest, New Hope, and Buffalo Road. Large Utility lines down, large trees down, overturned vehicles, flattened and severely damaged homes are prevalent in affected areas.
Uprooted
Uprooted
Tornado damage and downed trees NE Raleigh
Projectile
Projectile
The tornado took a tree trunk and used it as a missile through the attic of this house in NE Raleigh.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Doc!
More severe on the way....bummmer
Quoting hydrus:
More severe on the way....bummmer
day 3 yep new update comes out in about an hour from now give or take a few minutes

Thanks for the update Dr Masters. Is there a correlation between an active severe season and how the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be?
thanks for update doc deadly weekend for sure now we wait for the middle of the week to see whats next
Great post Dr. Masters. In regards to the Askewville NC tornado, they updated the storm report to 10 fatalities and 50 injures, instead of the earlier reported 14.

2300 ASKEWVILLE BERTIE NC 3611 7694 *** 10 FATAL, 50 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. NUMEROUS HOMES DAMAGED. NWS STORM SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED SUNDAY MORNING. CORRECTED NUMBER OF FATALITIES (AKQ)
Hazard

Watch
Likelihood

Not Likely


0Share
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION
TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER
TheWeatherSpace.com
11:20 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ...

EFFECTIVE NOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ...

DISCUSSION ... STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH NOTABLE TORNADO DYNAMICS ARE NOT DETECTED IN THE AREA, THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, INCLUDING WATERSPOUTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING.

A TORNADO WATCH IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE SMALL, WEAK, AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS EXPECTED.

... K. MARTIN
I'm still trying to find "Askewville, NC" in NE NC. It doesn't come up on a Yahoo search.??
Quoting 2manymarks:
I'm still trying to find "Askewville, NC" in NE NC. It doesn't come up on a Yahoo search.??
Quoting 2manymarks:
I'm still trying to find "Askewville, NC" in NE NC. It doesn't come up on a Yahoo search.??


One of these should do I hope.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
day 3 yep new update comes out in about an hour from now give or take a few minutes



Only one DAY 3, keep.
Here's an update to a homemade graphic I threw together this morning combining the SPC's latest storm data and graphics for the last three days.

More coming, more to go.... Too bad....

Quoting 2manymarks:
I'm still trying to find "Askewville, NC" in NE NC. It doesn't come up on a Yahoo search.??


Link
Quoting beell:


Only one DAY 3, keep.
yeah i use prop. for reference on days 2 and 3 and tornados day one
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
day 3 yep new update comes out in about an hour from now give or take a few minutes

Good morning Keep....Will ya shut the severe weather machine off already.....or at least talk to them about it.
Accumulating snow and mixed precipitation in S. Ontario north of Toronto, 2C (36F) and windy. Same storm system that killed more than 40 people in many States. I'm still predicting heavy river flooding along the upper Mississippi River, particularly in Iowa, Missouri and Illinois.
not again- -

How did this guy remain so calm?!?!?!?!

Quoting PcolaDan:
How did this guy remain so calm?!?!?!?!


Valium? Xanax? An overdose of blissful ignorance?

Unbelievable.
24. IKE

Quoting PcolaDan:
How did this guy remain so calm?!?!?!?!

Vehicle damaged. Uh....I think I would have moved somewhere...anywhere and avoided having a damaged vehicle. Wonder if the insurance company will pay if they viewed his attempt at avoiding damage?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Valium? Xanax? An overdose of blissful ignorance?

Unbelievable.


I'll go with "C".
Complete Update





Lost power last night, but here with an update. Camp Lajuene base housing took some damage. Jacksonville they are reporting 5 homes destroyed and 25 damaged. One tornado hit near Havelock, about 1-2 miles from my house. Looks like at least 2 homes are a total loss, at least 5 times that many damaged. Trees are just snapped in half and twisted. Red Cross is already on the scene here. Crazy...no warning. The news guys were saying they were dying down and more straight line wind threats, then 30 min later a twister came through. Would have been the end of me, watching from the porch.
What was amazing was the longevity of these tornadoes. These were long-life tornadoes that I was used to seeing in my days of living in Ohio. The perfect radar signature of the super cells was just amazing, something belonging in Oklahoma, not eastern NC.
An overdose of blissful ignorance?

Hun, I love ya...
I'm Ok
Don't worry for me
Just a roof that hit the car
I've got a problem with what I'm driving... it'is damaged
yap, I'm Ok, I feel good...


OH!!! I can see the neighborhood and our house from up here...
Beautiful, Yap
But don't worry
I'm Ok, feel good...
Just a small F1 passing by...
picking up leaves...
Wow.... Amazing damage in the NC area... the house in the 1st picture looks a lot like one my sister used to live in the Charlotte area about 10 years ago.

I need to touch bases with some friends living in the area, make sure they are OK.

Sure hope all our NC wunderbloggers are ok.
Quoting IKE:

Vehicle damaged. Uh....I think I would have moved somewhere...anywhere and avoided having a damaged vehicle. Wonder if the insurance company will pay if they viewed his attempt at avoiding damage?


Always get the full coverage on a rental car- never know when you might be in a tornado. :))
35. IKE
"Hang on....I love you"

"I've got a problem with what I'm driving"

As soon as the video ended......."yeah hun....that weed did the trick"....."go ahead and roll us up another one....I'll be home soon"
ignorance is bliss... but perhaps he had no where to go to..... you see it coming, but what's its path? Will it go right, left, if there's no shelter, perhaps he figured the best he could do was sit tight....
37. IKE

Quoting klaatuborada:
ignorance is bliss... but perhaps he had no where to go to..... you see it coming, but what's its path? Will it go right, left, if there's no shelter, perhaps he figured the best he could do was sit tight....
He said it was a half-mile away 13 seconds into the video and then he says it's coming right toward him. He had another 40-50 seconds to haul azz somewhere.
Quoting IKE:

He said it was a half-mile away 13 seconds into the video and then he says it's coming right toward him. He had another 40-50 seconds to haul azz somewhere.


Another perception mistake he makes:
Its not one of those..... devastation or terrible, it's just picking up leaves, (while power line transformers are blowing up)
Quoting IKE:

He said it was a half-mile away 13 seconds into the video and then he says it's coming right toward him. He had another 40-50 seconds to haul azz somewhere.


I'm thinking reverse... ;>)
Quoting IKE:

He said it was a half-mile away 13 seconds into the video and then he says it's coming right toward him. He had another 40-50 seconds to haul azz somewhere.
why move and risk knocking the heater off the joint sit back enjoy the awe of nature
Quoting clwstmchasr:


That guy had to been on some serious weed or Valium. I would have been in a total panic.
and the total panic would more than likly gotten you killed
When u look up the word "laconic" in the dictionary, that video pops up....
flooding over my house!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why move and risk knocking the heater off the joint sit back enjoy the awe of nature
.. Yep........pffffft.....
IIRC, a lot of the houses in NC don't have basements the way most midwestern homes do.
Quoting hydrus:
.. Yep........pffffft.....


Did he say "I've been hit" cause there's a lot of smoke inside the car...?
47. IKE

Quoting sunlinepr:


Another perception mistake he makes:
Its not one of those..... devastation or terrible, it's just picking up leaves, (while power line transformers are blowing up)
Exactly.

This guy's probably had a few ups and downs in his life.....and coped well with them:)
Quoting PcolaDan:
How did this guy remain so calm?!?!?!?!

because it's just picking up leaves...no biggy


oh look the roof just came off
Yep, eastern NC has pretty much no basements. Anywhere.
50. IKE
"""I happen to be recording it. That's even better isn't it?"""

"""Oh....a 1/2 a mile"""

"""I'd say it's coming straight toward me."""

"""There goes a roof off of a house"""

This guy should run for president! As cool as the other side of a pillow.
Did anyone notice the two earthquakes off both coasts of Australia?

Magnitude 5.2 - QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 16 05:31:19 UTC

Magnitude 5.2 - NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 17 18:41:19 UTC

There's also a video circulating on the internet of one tornado growing two revolving funnel clouds which both become tornadoes touching the ground.
Hmm... also one in Argentina.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Did he say "I've been hit" cause there's a lot of smoke inside the car...?
:)



Alright guys I know this video is long and the music is way too panicky, and I know this is really out there. But watch it anyway, its some freaky stuff.

I had a very disturbing encounter myself so it is interesting to here of this kind of stuff. I am not a superstitious person either so its not driving me mad, I just try and keep an open mind and not dismiss everything.
Quoting IKE:
"""I happen to be recording it. That's even better isn't it?"""

"""Oh....a 1/2 a mile"""

"""I'd say it's coming straight toward me."""

"""There goes a roof off of a house"""

This guy should run for president! As cool as the other side of a pillow.
lol +1
incredible tornado outbreak... Man...
This is what could have happened to that guy....

Quoting PcolaDan:
How did this guy remain so calm?!?!?!?!




Either he is really stupid or really scared, some people get like that when they are scared. Either way he is extremely lucky that it just missed him...
Quoting beell:


Only one DAY 3, keep.


Nice bunny, beell.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Nice bunny, beell.
he is always trying to be funny
sunline:

Ya. We're airborne. No, we're fine. Ya. Fine.

Eggs? Do I need to get anything else?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Did anyone notice the two earthquakes off both coasts of Australia?

Magnitude 5.2 - QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 16 05:31:19 UTC

Magnitude 5.2 - NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 17 18:41:19 UTC

There's also a video circulating on the internet of one tornado growing two revolving funnel clouds which both become tornadoes touching the ground.


Hi, and Good Afternoon,
I saw the Australian earthquakes but have basically dismissed them, (as much as one can,} at the moment as bit of settlement in some outlying areas as they are not on major fault lines.
The ones to watch out for are still to the East of Japan and there are four main groups or 'clusters,' of these. Steaching from a bit East of Tokyo to the North by East, for a few hundred miles, these clusters are increasing in activity and may be heading for a loose join up in the not too distant future. Last week there were only 70 quakes above 4.5 reported by USGS in the previous week. This week there are 87 quakes in the same area.
All this, subject to me being shot down for saying it? Might be leading to a type of 'Zipper' effect on the East coast of japan with a new major fault line surfacing in the near future.
Only speculation of cause as always!

Did you see that excellent video clip Kepper put up aright at the end of the last blog?
Quoting Jedkins01:



Alright guys I know this video is long and the music is way too panicky, and I know this is really out there. But watch it anyway, its some freaky stuff.

I had a very disturbing encounter myself so it is interesting to here of this kind of stuff. I am not a superstitious person either so its not driving me mad, I just try and keep an open mind and not dismiss everything.


I can explain every one of those.
The one spiraling for example of Australia was the upper stage of the Falcon 9 that was doing a test burn back in 2010, during launch the booster was sent into a spin.

Matter of fact most of those are rocket launches at low sun angles, at dawn.
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL (29U)
3:00 AM WIB April 18 2011
==========================================

At 1:00 am WIB, Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category One (1001 hPa) located near 10.6S 123.6E, or 25 NM east northeast of Rotecand 25 NM south southwest of Kupang has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
25 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
35 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.6S 123.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 11.3S 122.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

STRONG WIND WARNING:
For coastal waters BETWEEN TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND

HIGH WAVES WARNING:
For coastal waters TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
Quoting Jedkins01:



Alright guys I know this video is long and the music is way too panicky, and I know this is really out there. But watch it anyway, its some freaky stuff.

I had a very disturbing encounter myself so it is interesting to here of this kind of stuff. I am not a superstitious person either so its not driving me mad, I just try and keep an open mind and not dismiss everything.
....thats really. a rocket launch over kaizicstan,spectacular nonoculant cloud trails,perfect conditions....
had to read back, and see what ya'll were talking about-

"hang on, I love ya"
If I ever said that, I'd be screaming it from under a mattress

"cool as the other side of a pillow"
Ike- that's just as memorable as the first one
and let me add this one to the mix:

And the day that Jedkins finally admitted why he's so feisty - he's been abducted by aliens.

Ahhh..today has been a good day.
Been out helping people all day pick up from damage, Gloucester, VA was hit very hard. 3 fatalities so far, over 80 injured a couple still in critical condition. It is really mind-numbing seeing what weather can do to what looks like a very sturdy home or building.
God blesses you, VABeach. Thank you for what you are doing. Thank you for doing what a few of us wish we could do. May God give your strong arms and no blisters.
watches and warnings just posted for South Florida.
Quoting aquak9:
had to read back, and see what ya'll were talking about-

"hang on, I love ya"
If I ever said that, I'd be screaming it from under a mattress

"cool as the other side of a pillow"
Ike- that's just as memorable as the first one


The guy in the car, video thing:-

Easy when you know how.
He would probably be a, buddhist monk or a Scientologist who had just gone clear, or even more lightly he was listening to the tornado reports by the Fox, ''News-Casters,'' on his I phone, who were assuring him he had nothing to worry about as it was only a 'spike' in the ambient background atmospheric conditions and all would soon return to 'normal,'

Alternatively he could have been working for ''special UFO, forces.''
Askewville NC


from here


Link


from what see be low and i no this sounds bad but we may have are 1st EF5 rateing

11 deaths - Catastrophic damage in the area. Numerous homes were destroyed, some were ripped off their foundations. At least 50 people injured.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
watches and warnings just posted for South Florida.




area near miami
Quoting aquak9:
and let me add this one to the mix:

And the day that Jedkins finally admitted why he's so feisty - he's been abducted by aliens.

Ahhh..today has been a good day.


nahhh I never had an alien abduction. I just saw a bright object one night that made a very disturbing sound that awoke me from my sleep, I had the window open.

BTW, sadly some people are close minded and will always be critics of the unexplained to the bitter end. I'm not superstitious person who confuses rockets for aliens... lol


Physics has proven the existence of other dimensions, and we lived in an extremely vast Universe. It would be unwise and stubborn to say there couldn't be some sort of alien life out there. I'm not saying any of these sightings are, or the one I saw. But let's be honest, you'd have to be full of yourself to think you can explain everything that's being sighted, its a complicated world. There isn't always a hoax or rational explanation for these things, some people need to learn to except that. Some scientists are at least being honest enough to admit there are some things going in the sky in recent years that cannot be explained, so please I advise for your own health not to mock me.

Link Hurracane north of PR! LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




area near miami


Wheres, ''Dusty'' Grother?

Tangled up in a sun shade, doubling as an umbrella.{Para Lluvia!}
Quoting PlazaRed:


Wheres, ''Dusty'' Grother?

Tangled up in a sun shade, doubling as an umbrella.{Para Lluvia!}


I am here Plaza!
Quoting Grothar:


I am here Plaza!


You got it made now, Senor!
Rain clouds in the air, heat in the sea, warmth in the bones and one hell of a season to look forward to in those balmy climes?

Here at the bottom westerly end of Europe we have winds, and fog in the Canary Islands, endless blue skies and about 30/c in the mountains of Grazalema, Cadiz, days and days of high winds and just on time rain, of all things forecast for ''Semana Santas'' processions.

We can only offer our sincere condolences to all those people in the USA who have been so tragically affected by the untimely storms you have had recently.
Quoting Gearsts:
Link Hurracane north of PR! LOL


Ahem.... I resemble that remark.

CRS
Quoting Jedkins01:



Alright guys I know this video is long and the music is way too panicky, and I know this is really out there. But watch it anyway, its some freaky stuff.

I had a very disturbing encounter myself so it is interesting to here of this kind of stuff. I am not a superstitious person either so its not driving me mad, I just try and keep an open mind and not dismiss everything.


You might want to go and look at #752 on my blog, and see if it looks familiar?
Quoting 74 Jedkins01 9:42 PM GMT on April 17, 2011:


nahhh I never had an alien abduction. I just saw a bright object one night that made a very disturbing sound that awoke me from my sleep, I had the window open.


Try Googling "hypnopompic".



BTW, sadly some people are close minded and will always be critics of the unexplained to the bitter end.


And some people are closed minded and will never be willing to accept mundane or conventional explanations for things they find "disturbing" and/or "interesting". Instead, they will insist that anything they cannot (easily) explain themselves must either have an exotic explanation, or no explanation at all.



I'm not superstitious person who confuses rockets for aliens... lol


Are you sure?
54. Jedkins01 7:45 PM GMT on April 17, 2011



Alright guys I know this video is long and the music is way too panicky, and I know this is really out there. But watch it anyway, its some freaky stuff.

I had a very disturbing encounter myself so it is interesting to here of this kind of stuff. I am not a superstitious person either so its not driving me mad, I just try and keep an open mind and not dismiss everything.


some of those UFO files has been mentioned on Sci-Fi Channel's "Paranormal: Fact or Fiction".
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
watches and warnings just posted for South Florida.
i know i saw that on the news to!!
This Sky 5 Aerial footage of Bertie County NC where 10 fatalities occurred is truly heartbreaking. The structural damage is unreal. I keep failing on posting the video, so here is the link.
Link
Quoting PlazaRed:


You got it made now, Senor!
Rain clouds in the air, heat in the sea, warmth in the bones and one hell of a season to look forward to in those balmy climes?

Here at the bottom westerly end of Europe we have winds, and fog in the Canary Islands, endless blue skies and about 30/c in the mountains of Grazalema, Cadiz, days and days of high winds and just on time rain, of all things forecast for ''Semana Santas'' processions.

We can only offer our sincere condolences to all those people in the USA who have been so tragically affected by the untimely storms you have had recently.


Not looking forward to this season. Conditions are too ripe. Yes, it has been a tragic week. Disturbing to see those times of tragedies. Enjoy your balmy weather.
88. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Link Hurracane north of PR! LOL

Quoting aquak9:
God blesses you, VABeach. Thank you for what you are doing. Thank you for doing what a few of us wish we could do. May God give your strong arms and no blisters.


Haha, thanks aqua, the soreness and blisters I can deal with. It's nothing compared to what they are going through right now.
Quoting Neapolitan:

And thus mankind invented religion... ;-)

I don't speak for all, but I've never seen or experienced anything that wasn't completely explainable in the light of science. Some things took longer to understand, of course, but in the end the natural has triumphed over the supernatural 100% of the time.

There's something very comforting about that, I think.


That I do find hard to believe. There have been many things that have happened to me over the years that were beyond coicidence and not explainable at all. I believe we all have them, some just admit it for fear of ridicule.
Quoting Grothar:


Not looking forward to this season. Conditions are too ripe. Yes, it has been a tragic week. Disturbing to see those times of tragedies. Enjoy your balmy weather.


Thanks for the that, we will have about 5 months now without rain at least, same every year.About October we will get a few clouds and then the storms will start.

We have massive interest in your up and coming season and I would hazard a guess that you might have one of those big Catherine Wheel things roll up the East coast of Florida this year, everything is probably too well in place for it to miss this time round. We do so hope that everybody is well prepared and takes notice of the warnings this time.
That heat coming out of Africa is going to have some consequences in the lower Caribbean soon and with all that high SST in the gulf early this year the northerly direction might be the only course if there is a vortex over the GOM.

Keep well everybody.
Just one of those coincidences, today a lady came out of her house in her back yard in Norfolk, Va. Found a license from Coleman, NC. 90 miles away.
Quoting IceCoast:
This Sky 5 Aerial footage of Bertie County NC where 10 fatalities occurred is truly heartbreaking. The structural damage is unreal. I keep failing on posting the video, so here is the link.
Link


What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?
Quoting PlazaRed:


Thanks for the that, we will have about 5 months now without rain at least, same every year.About October we will get a few clouds and then the storms will start.

We have massive interest in your up and coming season and I would hazard a guess that you might have one of those big Catherine Wheel things roll up the East coast of Florida this year, everything is probably too well in place for it to miss this time round. We do so hope that everybody is well prepared and takes notice of the warnings this time.
That heat coming out of Africa is going to have some consequences in the lower Caribbean soon and with all that high SST in the gulf early this year the northerly direction might be the only course if there is a vortex over the GOM.

Keep well everybody.


I hope you are wrong. They are interesting to watch when they are over open waters, but not too great of a view when they are approaching land. I have been through a number of them, so I am as prepared as one can be, but it is never enough. I am sure you will watch with great interest.
You never know. It could be worth watching for subtropical low development.

Quoting Levi32:
You never know. It could be worth watching for subtropical low development.

Remote link disable
It's a trough-split that occurs after the current trough over the eastern U.S. clears out and the ridge builds back in over the north. With the cold low already showing significant presence out there, it could certainly be worth a look if it gets stuck sitting down there for a week. Upper lows festering over ~26C SSTs can sometimes get convection going.
Quoting Levi32:
You never know. It could be worth watching for subtropical low development.



If anyone else had said that... I would have thought they were "wishing". With you saying it.. I am concerned... a bit early isn't it?
we have some very unfriendly, arrogant, and rude bloggers here. Its a shame some here think so highly of their viewpoints here and childishly mock other views like immature children.

Good thing not everyone is like that.

I don't know why you would want to live like that, there is nothing enjoyable about being that way, maybe some of you enjoy being antisocial.

Good riddance...
Quoting Gearsts:
Remote link disable


Changed it.
Quoting Levi32:
You never know. It could be worth watching for subtropical low development.



The Euro also has it dissipating after 162 hours.
Quoting Levi32:
It's a trough-split that occurs after the current trough over the eastern U.S. clears out and the ridge builds back in over the north. With the cold low already showing significant presence out there, it could certainly be worth a look if it gets stuck sitting down there for a week. Upper lows festering over ~26C SSTs can sometimes get convection going.
With 60+ knots of shear?
Quoting Orcasystems:


If anyone else had said that... I would have thought they were "wishing". With you saying it.. I am concerned... a bit early isn't it?


It's nothing to be "concerned" about. Subtropical low activity has almost nothing to do with the actual tropical season. They are things to watch for starting right about this time of year when the water is starting to warm up. In a La Nina, trough-splits start occurring underneath the eastern U.S. ridge, and we all know that mischief can come from such trough-splits if they have enough time to sit and fester.
CMC seems to have become even less accurate this year. 12z showing a strong 990 MB Tropical Storm between Bermuda and Hispanoila (forming out of the Hybrid Low NE of PR right now.) In other tropical news shear is suppose to be 0, that's right, 0 knots off the coast of the carolinas that extends a good 500 miles out toward bermuda, so watch, you never know what might happen. Also the Subtropical Jet is suppose to be going in a straight line this week(from GOM/BOC division line to Sahara into Spain, so no other threats that would be able to exist besides the Carolina coasts late this week, early next week.
we have some very unfriendly, arrogant, and rude bloggers here. Its a shame some here think so highly of their viewpoints here and childishly mock other views like immature children.

Good thing not everyone is like that.

I don't know why you would want to live like that, there is nothing enjoyable about being that way, maybe some of you enjoy being antisocial. Anyone who thinks that way will find themselves st the end of their life shocked when they discover their superior opinion is compromised and never really mattered.

Good riddance...
Quoting Levi32:


It's nothing to be "concerned" about. Subtropical low activity has almost nothing to do with the actual tropical season. They are things to watch for starting right about this time of year when the water is starting to warm up. In a La Nina, trough-splits start occurring underneath the eastern U.S. ridge, and we all know that mischief can come from such trough-splits if they have enough time to sit and fester.


The concern was an early start... that's seldom good. I still have not forgiven you for your statement we were in for a cold winter.. which has not really stopped yet!
Quoting Gearsts:
With 60+ knots of shear?


If it stays underneath the subtropical jet then no, but if it settles underneath a cut-off upper low north of the jet, then maybe.
The 12z Euro doesn't quite get the cut-off at 200mb, and the surface low is under the divergent jet-streak on the southeast flank of the 200mb trough. This is why, shortly afterwards on the run, the surface low falls off into the trade winds to the west and dissipates.

12z Euro 120 hours (MSLP, 200mb wind barbs):

VAbeach...check your WU mail
One can see it stacked under a closed low at 500mb, though. The key will be getting the cut-off up to 200mb.

Quoting Orcasystems:


The concern was an early start... that's seldom good. I still have not forgiven you for your statement we were in for a cold winter.. which has not really stopped yet!


Yeah, well subtropical activity says little about whether actual tropical activity will get an early start. The only potential clue they could give is the tendency for cut-off upper lows to form.

Stay warm over there :P
Quoting Levi32:



Hey Levi, I have been awaiting to see if you update your blog. I was wondering about how all the models have been showing so many random probabilities of a TC formation in the EPAC and ATL.
Examples:
GFS on 14th:
Showes and EPAC storm forming and then getting pulled into the Caribbean, and becoming a potent low.

CMC today:
(this is to be expected by them) a strong subtropical system forming and becoming Arlene.

Also do you think all these different things that help support TC formation that have been adding up this year, will support a potent storm season?
Examples:
~MJO over Americas
~Below Average Shear
~Warm Gulf SST's
~Steering coming in place
~still in La Nina/Neutral
~Tropical Patterns ahead of schedule

Thanks....
Quoting Levi32:
One can see it stacked under a closed low at 500mb, though. The key will be getting the cut-off up to 200mb.

Levi could you give me a link to that?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hey Levi, I have been awaiting to see if you update your blog. I was wondering about how all the models have been showing so many random probabilities of a TC formation in the EPAC and ATL.
Examples:
GFS on 14th:
Showes and EPAC storm forming and then getting pulled into the Caribbean, and becoming a potent low.

CMC today:
(this is to be expected by them) a strong subtropical system forming and becoming Arlene.

Also do you think all these different things that help support TC formation that have been adding up this year, will support a potent storm season?
Examples:
~MJO over Americas
~Below Average Shear
~Warm Gulf SST's
~Steering coming in place
~still in La Nina/Neutral
~Tropical Patterns ahead of schedule

Thanks....


It should be a more active than normal year, but we're not really ahead of schedule right now. We're still waiting for the equatorial high to start shifting northward.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levin could you give me a link to that?


Link
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z Euro doesn't quite get the cut-off at 200mb, and the surface low is under the divergent jet-streak on the southeast flank of the 200mb trough. This is why, shortly afterwards on the run, the surface low falls off into the trade winds to the west and dissipates.

12z Euro 120 hours (MSLP, 200mb wind barbs):

Levi please to a tropical Tidbit ^^
Just for the record, the NOGAPS, usually more conservative, shows the potential for pressures to lower, not rise:

It would have to stay south of 27-28N though, or SSTs get far too cold.

Noting the words of:-Hurricanedean07.

Also do you think all these different things that help support TC formation that have been adding up this year, will support a potent storm season?
Examples:
~MJO over Americas
~Below Average Shear
~Warm Gulf SST's
~Steering coming in place
~still in La Nina/Neutral
~Tropical Patterns ahead of schedule

You sure know how to hit the nail on the head here.

Those SST's are going to be the key to all that will follow and they might just make above historic records,this year, then its uncharted waters and turbulent air.

My bet is still to get the first stir of activity above the north east coast of Panama In the direction of Cuba.Just a guess though!
Gulf waters are warm in almost every La Nina winter. It is nothing unusual or record-breaking. Even in El Nino winters, the gulf always warms up if the AMO is positive. Take last year for an example.
Thanks Levi, sorry bout the typo
Its a long shot for sure, but the NOGAPS, CMC, ECMWF, and the GFS all show ''something'' out there around 84 hours or so. ECMWF and GFS however do not show a tropical/sub-tropical cyclone rather just a low pressure.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?

It's all about wind resistance. A blade of normal lawn grass might be 5 mm wide by 50 mm tall, for a flat plane are of 250 mm/2 (0.00025 m/2). On the other hand, the windward face of a building might be, say, 72 m/2. That gives the building about 288,000 times more surface area than the grass--and hence 288,000 more wind resistance. By that aspect alone, the roots on an individual blade of grass are easily able to hold fast.

On top of that, a few other factors work against the building: grass is flexible, where a building wall is not; grass is closer to the ground, where friction saps the wind of speed; and grass roots are usually intertwined, where, say, a home may be standing alone.

Good question, though...
Quoting help4u:
Neapolitian read Romans 1:18-20.

I have (many times in the past, in fact). What of it? That is, do you have a particular question?
and are used on all religion comments, even those with a ;-) as a lame attempt to show jest and/or sarcasm.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I have (many times in the past, in fact). What of it? That is, do you have a particular question?


That's why he's a regular on my iggy list...UGH!
Quoting PcolaDan:
and are used on all religion comments, even those with a ;-) as a lame attempt to show jest and/or sarcasm.


Good God!! ;-)

Sanford...Holly Springs...Raleigh EF3 Tornado survey..
Link



link on the top
Quoting StAugustineFL:


What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?
Look up the "Power Law" for winds. Exponentially weaker wind as you get closer to the surface, and, yes, on a scale of inches, the drag saps the wind speed down to very little at grass level.

(Besides the valid flexibility point.)
Y'all need to start trading WUmails...

This isn't your venue for that.
I've seen some ridiculous disagreements on this blog, but the current one is about as low as it can get.
Quoting pottery:
I've seen some ridiculous disagreements on this blog, but the current one is about as low as it can get.


you'll never go broke under estimating human behavior...
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's all about wind resistance. A blade of normal lawn grass might be 5 mm wide by 50 mm tall, for a flat plane are of 250 mm/2 (0.00025 m/2). On the other hand, the windward face of a building might be, say, 72 m/2. That gives the building about 288,000 times more surface area than the grass--and hence 288,000 more wind resistance. By that aspect alone, the roots on an individual blade of grass are easily able to hold fast.

On top of that, a few other factors work against the building: grass is flexible, where a building wall is not; grass is closer to the ground, where friction saps the wind of speed; and grass roots are usually intertwined, where, say, a home may be standing alone.

Good question, though...


Look up the "Power Law" for winds. Exponentially weaker wind as you get closer to the surface, and, yes, on a scale of inches, the drag saps the wind speed down to very little a grass level.

(Besides the valid flexibility point.)

First time trying to quote two bloggers at once so not sure if I'm doing this correctly. Thank you Nea and Atmo for the information.
Here's an updated version of that homemade graphic I threw together by combining the SPC's storm data and graphics for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Quoting pottery:
I've seen some ridiculous disagreements on this blog, but the current one is about as low as it can get.


They keep forgetting one of the golden rules of blogging...


Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience


Click to enlarge
Quoting Orcasystems:


They keep forgetting one of the golden rules of blogging...


Do not argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience

I was about to argue with you about that. But I am taking your advice to heart! Thanks.

heheheheh, How you doing, Orca?
hi pottery- I can't even figure out what they're arguing about.

Tip'o'the'Day: Never try to argue with someone who's been abducted by aliens.
In a sick twist of irony, I found the historic tornadic outbreak comparable to two heavyweight boxers going toe-to-toe. In the end, as the storm was close to exiting the coast, mother nature threw her knockout punch in Bertie County. Terrible and God bless all affected.
ya blog has gone into relapse
time for an intervention
pottery did you bring the rum
Quoting aquak9:
hi pottery- I can't even figure out what they're arguing about.

Tip'o'the'Day: Never try to argue with someone who's been abducted by aliens.

LOL to that!
How has your weather been this week?
Hot and dry here today, but we did see a cloud this morning...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya blog has gone into relapse
time for an intervention
pottery did you bring the rum

Sorry.
I was sure when I left home there was a good bit in the jug. But it must have leaked out or something....
Recoon stole the rum. Can't post a pic- Recoon's a bannable offense.
This is completely unrelated to everything, but it's still pretty cool. Check out the Central Texas Radar:



Are storms developing? Nope, those are bats!!!
Are storms developing? Nope, those are bats!!!

Ya sure those aren't aliens? Bats are kinda funny lookin', in the face y'know.
Quoting pottery:

Sorry.
I was sure when I left home there was a good bit in the jug. But it must have leaked out or something....
Probably a problem with the glaze or the firing, I have noticed the same phenomenon. Then again it could have something to do with aliens or maybe some weather thing that Levi could explain.
I'm off to bed, but before I go, I see the NCDC is out with the March, 2011, climate report. Not a lot of surprises, really, for those who haven't seen it. Just more warming as usual. Among the highlights:

--The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2011 was the 13th warmest on record at 13.19C (55.78F), which is 0.49C (0.88F) above the 20th century average of 12.7C (54.9F). This was also the 35th consecutive March with global land and ocean temperatures above the 20th century average.

--The March worldwide land surface temperature was 0.83C (1.49F) above the 20th century average of 5.0C (40.8F)—the 12th warmest March on record.

--The March worldwide ocean surface temperature was 0.36C (0.65F) above the 20th century average of 15.9C (60.7F)—also the 12th warmest March on record.

--For the year-to-date, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature of 12.73C (54.87F) was the 14th warmest January–March on record. This value is 0.43C (0.77F) above the 20th century average.

--Australia had its wettest and coolest March on record. (Oddly, within the State of Western Australia, the eastern portion had its coolest March on record while its southwest had its warmest.)

--March had the third lowest Antarctic sea ice extent on record, while sea ice extent in the Arctic was the second lowest on record.

As always, there is far more information here.Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
ENSO, NAO, high dispertion rates and the Mojitoes- err I mean the MJO- that's what happened to the rum.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is completely unrelated to everything, but it's still pretty cool. Check out the Central Texas Radar:



Are storms developing? Nope, those are bats!!!
And dew. (The change/increase in clutter)
Quoting atmoaggie:
And dew. (The change/increase in clutter)

Really? Even with the humidity somewhat low?
"Holy Smokes Batman",,check out the "Bat radar" over Gotham City....

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Really? Even with the humidity somewhat low?
Ehh, obs don't support it yet...

But it is all I can come up with as to why radars in the SE and south tend to show a lot more clutter about this time of day and clear out at ~8 am.

And you can see it ahead of a passing cold front in the evening and not behind.

Austin's dewpoint was 59 F an hour ago, and air temp 76 F. Waiting for a fresh ob...
LOLOL Aquak.
hehehehh

Thank ya'll for a day of friendship and understanding, bats and aliens notwithstanding.

g'night ya'll, go in peace.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is completely unrelated to everything, but it's still pretty cool. Check out the Central Texas Radar:



Are storms developing? Nope, those are bats!!!
them some big bats
whew... I'm glad tings were a bit blurry for Pottery when I was by da jug, and then Pottery n Jug got blurry for me...
CRS
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
whew... I'm glad tings were a bit blurry for Pottery when I was by da jug, and then Pottery n Jug got blurry for me...
CRS

Hey Keeper!
I just remembered who it was I met along the way.
A Scoundrel, to be sure!
(but I wont divulge his name...)
Is the Navy site down? Thanks
...and I Can't Remember S.... sir
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...and I Can't Remember S.... sir

The people who I spoke to said they think the place was well insured.
But they never did find the Locomotive.
Quoting swflurker:
Is the Navy site down? Thanks


Looks like since this morning...
179. beell
Tonight, I'll say the clutter is due to evaporative cooling in the boundary layer leaving a refractive layer.
Fairly decent T/Td spreads across the landscape-not just at the surface.

Bunny says "thanks for the avatar, atmo"
CMC 144 hrs



Ngp 108 hrs



Quoting swflurker:
Is the Navy site down? Thanks
Power outage in computer room
Quoting beell:
Tonight, I'll say the clutter is due to evaporative cooling in the boundary layer leaving a refractive layer.
Fairly decent T/Td spreads across the landscape.
Hmm, I wonder about the radiative cooling of the radome surface, though.

Possible to have dew on a car, thought the dewpoint was never met.
Quoting pottery:

Hey Keeper!
I just remembered who it was I met along the way.
A Scoundrel, to be sure!
(but I wont divulge his name...)


Some people are like Slinkies ... Not really good for anything, but you can't help smiling when you see one tumble down the stairs
Thanks sun & at. Thought my new computer was bugged!
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER ERROL (29U)
9:00 AM WIB April 18 2011
==========================================

At 7:00 am WIB, Tropical Low, Former Errol (1003 hPa) located near 10.2S 123.5E, or 10 NM west southwest of Kupangcand 35 NM northeast of Rote has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving north northwest at 4 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 10.8S 121.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 11.3S 120.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

STRONG WIND WARNING:
For coastal waters BETWEEN TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND

HIGH WAVES WARNING:
For coastal waters TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND

There will be no further warning issued for this system because the system decreased below tropical cyclone severity.
You can always use FNMOC site instead of NRL website
187. beell
Never really read much on clutter caused by the dome. But then, I never went looking!

Refraction clutter will always be most noticeable at lower elevation angles. But that may also apply to some kinda differential between the dome and the enviroment.

I'll sleep on it!
G'nite, atmo.

Two views of the Central TX Radar:


Base Reflectivity @ .50°elevation angle



Base Reflectivity @ 3.5° elevation angle

great video
Quoting StAugustineFL:

What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?


When I lived North of Topeka, Kansas an F-2 tornado ran through the field behind my house. It 1/2 destroyed a neighbors house, lifted part of my roof and set it back down after twisting the outer walls, etc... It also sucked the telephone poles out of the ground like soda straws.

In my back yard, we had an empty plastic child's wading pool sitting on the ground next to one of those large wooden swing sets with fort, slide, etc... . The swing set was carried about 100 feet to the North and dropped in not very good shape. A smoker on my back deck became air born and part of it was never seen again. The child's plastic "empty" swimming pool never moved. From the grass under it, you could see it didn't move even an inch.

That's why they say to lie down flat (if there is no other cover) or find a small depression or ditch to lie in. The winds directly at the surface are the lowest. You want to present the lowest, least exposed target to the wind.
Upper atmosphere seems to have increased in temperature over the past week. I think the low that was off of the west coast on the 8th may have pushed a plume of moisture up there. Actually it may have originated from Greenland and combined with the plume.


191. JRRP



UKMO
43 days remain
Quoting PlazaRed:


You got it made now, Senor!
Rain clouds in the air, heat in the sea, warmth in the bones and one hell of a season to look forward to in those balmy climes?

Here at the bottom westerly end of Europe we have winds, and fog in the Canary Islands, endless blue skies and about 30/c in the mountains of Grazalema, Cadiz, days and days of high winds and just on time rain, of all things forecast for ''Semana Santas'' processions.

We can only offer our sincere condolences to all those people in the USA who have been so tragically affected by the untimely storms you have had recently.
Man, how can u have rain for Semana Santas.... [though we r getting a slight chance of it for the first time in weeks here....] Hope it doesn't literally rain on the parade....

Quoting StAugustineFL:


What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?
It's the profile. Grass is low profile, while the house is high profile by comparison. The bushes get left; the 100 ft "mighty" oaks get leveled.

194. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:
WOW looks SEXY
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ehh, obs don't support it yet...

But it is all I can come up with as to why radars in the SE and south tend to show a lot more clutter about this time of day and clear out at ~8 am.

And you can see it ahead of a passing cold front in the evening and not behind.

Austin's dewpoint was 59 F an hour ago, and air temp 76 F. Waiting for a fresh ob...


I have an uneducated theory atmo... Is it temperature inversion? Much like what happens over a lake at night? I know that sound travels much farther as it bounces off the inversion and stays close to the ground. Could that be happening to the radar to some extent as well?
JRRP... isn't it a bit early to be seeing that kind of action over the continent? Seems pretty far north.

But then again, it IS after April 15....
Quoting BahaHurican:
JRRP... isn't it a bit early to be seeing that kind of action over the continent? Seems pretty far north.

But then again, it IS after April 15....


It's about the time of year to start seeing rain in the Sahel.

The first dekad data of the year is out for the intertropical front (northern edge of the ITCZ), and it's more or less near it's climatological position, or slightly south of.



here is a nice shot
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is a nice shot


Yes, that is a nice shot...kinda relaxing to watch ;)
We are doom.
Quoting Gearsts:
WOW looks SEXY


3 Big Waves over Africa



Quoting TexasGulf:
Quoting StAugustineFL:

What I don't understand is how grass with roots a couple of inches deep can remain intact while buildings are leveled. Can someone explain?


When I lived North of Topeka, Kansas an F-2 tornado ran through the field behind my house. It 1/2 destroyed a neighbors house, lifted part of my roof and set it back down after twisting the outer walls, etc... It also sucked the telephone poles out of the ground like soda straws.

In my back yard, we had an empty plastic child's wading pool sitting on the ground next to one of those large wooden swing sets with fort, slide, etc... . The swing set was carried about 100 feet to the North and dropped in not very good shape. A smoker on my back deck became air born and part of it was never seen again. The child's plastic "empty" swimming pool never moved. From the grass under it, you could see it didn't move even an inch.

That's why they say to lie down flat (if there is no other cover) or find a small depression or ditch to lie in. The winds directly at the surface are the lowest. You want to present the lowest, least exposed target to the wind.


One thing that determines what and how a tornado affects something is the aerodynamics that play out.

For example, just about everyone has bent a card a little in the middle, set it on a table, and blew on it really hard. Instead of flying off the table, it "flaps" for a short distance. Another example is setting a fan on the floor face up and then putting a balloon or a beachball over it. Instead of flying up and off, the aerodynamics cause the items to "wobble" within the stream of the wind from the fan.

Depending on the direction of the wind, the strength, and the shape of the object you can get some rather odd behavior from major wind based storms (like hurricanes and tornadoes). For example, a car pointed directly into the wind from a tornado is unlikely to move very much or be lifted away. This is due to the airfoil of the car being designed to increase downward pressure on the car at higher speeds for better handling.

You can also get patterns of constructive and destructive interference, where a home gets completely obliterated while another house next to it barely gets scratched.

There are also other effects that can happen to yield what appears to be weird results.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
We are doom.


Yes, lol...what a difference a day makes....we know this won't last long.....I couldn't sleep, so I got online, was gonna read back through the blog and see how our bloggers faired in the bad weather. All ok, I'm hoping.
Quoting sunlinepr:


3 Big Waves over Africa



Damn really wish the Nrl Monterey site was up right now, then i could get a real color scale on the ir image.

I swear Nrl Monterey is one of the least reliable weather websites, it's down or has some sort of glitch once a week, which too bad because it's a really good website for satellite images.
Good morning all. Looks to be a beautiful day here in the Valley of the Shenandoah. Lost 2 to high water and ignorance and a number of agricultural buildings and a house trailer to a rare EF-1 'nado. Fortunately people who lived in trailer were away.
209. cre13
I'm in NE NC and had a really exciting Saturday night. While I didn't experience a tornado (thankfully), we did have 3 tornado warnings in my town over the course of an hour. It was both scary and exciting! This type of severe weather is not common around here. It happens very rarely. What an impressive show nature put on for us though! The lightening show was incredible!
Have any waves traveling from under Africa's armpit ever become a tropical cyclone?
Trough does have potential for something..probably Sub Tropical as Levis says. Lots of convection at the apex at 25N 57W. hooked low level vorticity and a High to the NE reinforcing the east side SE winds and soon a High to the NW reinforcing the NE flow should help release what heat is available. There was one STS that formed right there and head right for the islands one year right about no I believe.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/wind main.php?&basin=europe&sat=wm7&prod=vor&zoom=&time =

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.h tml
217. Jax82
I was in Greensboro, NC Saturday, which is about 50 miles west of the Raleigh area. We only had a severe thunderstorm warning, and it downpoured like no other, we had lost power for a bit. The storms really geared up right after they passed my town. This was an event talked about it seemed for days beforehand, a lot of people knew it was coming, unfortunately these storms hit populated areas. And its not like out west where you can see for miles and miles because there are not a lot of trees. The piedmont is hilly and there are lots of tall trees, so it makes it difficult to know a tornado is coming since you cant really see but a part of the sky. Anyways, back in FL now where it looks to be a hot week, temps are gonna reach 90.
Quoting RastaSteve:


I was shocked at what he said and reposted it to the blog later that day. If someone called me that we would be having a square off.
chill out take a pill relax
HPC folks are expecting lots of much needed rain for C and N TX.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
220. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
chill out take a pill relax
I know someone he can get a pill from....

"""I happen to be recording it. That's even better isn't it?"""

"""Oh....a 1/2 a mile"""

"""I'd say it's coming straight toward me."""

"""There goes a roof off of a house"""

Crazy how the worst of this tornado outbreak wasn't even in OK or Kansas as some thought. I knew the worst would be Friday and then Saturday as the deeper moisture was east of the Miss River.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Crazy how the worst of this tornado outbreak wasn't even in OK or Kansas as some thought. I knew the worst would be Friday and then Saturday as the deeper moisture was east of the Miss River.
that has passed now we await the next round

223. IKE
5 day QPF...dry as a bone here....


mod risk for day two
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF...dry as a bone here....




Good Morning IKE and Keeper! Dry here as well but I think we may begin the afternoon thunderstorm process this week. SE FL especially the Miami area really got hammered in spots yesterday. Expect more thunderstorms in S FL today and they maybe more numerous today than yesterday.
Quoting RastaSteve:
HPC folks are expecting lots of much needed rain for C and N TX.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

And in related news, Houston barely gets a drop. Again.

$%^*(&# You, atmospheric cap!

I wonder how this past weekend's outbreak stacks up compared to other outbreaks in history?
Quoting jeffs713:

And in related news, Houston barely gets a drop. Again.

$%^*(&# You, atmospheric cap!



Keep your fingers crossed that some of these convective complexes work your way once they develope over the Hill Country.
229. IKE
No rain in Houston's forecast from NWS for the next 7 days. Getting close to afternoon thundershower time as the most likely relief....if any.
Quoting RastaSteve:


Keep your fingers crossed that some of these convective complexes work your way once they develope over the Hill Country.

I just read the NWS forecast for Houston (which covers through Saturday), and also looked at the forecast soundings. The cap weakens a bit Wednesday, but not by much. Anything that tries to pop will get choked off once it hits 800-850mb. The air column goes from rather moist to bone dry. The cap has been killing us for the past couple of months, since all the storm systems keep on staying to our north, and driving warm air at the mid-level right over us. Stuff will pop to our north, and to our east no problem. Just not over us.
This was the OB from Miami yesterday.

17:53 NE 9 G 47 0.75 Thunderstorm Heavy Small Hail/Snow Pellets Rain Fog/Mist FEW005 BKN015CB OVC030 73 69 87% 29.96 1014.4 1.16"
Quoting IKE:
No rain in Houston's forecast from NWS for the next 7 days. Getting close to afternoon thundershower time as the most likely relief....if any.

Not with that cap.



Notice the HUGE jump in temp, and HUGE drop in dewpoints at 850mb. THAT is an incredible cap, and is whats killing our rain chances.

And yes, the temp at 850mb is the same as it is on the ground.

And at 740mb, the relative humidity is a whopping 9%.

I don't know of any storms, hurricanes included, that can handle that kind of dryness.
Miami picked up over 2" of rain yesterday.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Did anyone notice the two earthquakes off both coasts of Australia?

Magnitude 5.2 - QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 16 05:31:19 UTC

Magnitude 5.2 - NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA - 2011 April 17 18:41:19 UTC

There's also a video circulating on the internet of one tornado growing two revolving funnel clouds which both become tornadoes touching the ground.



Date: 16/04/2011 UTC:05:31:18 Lat: -20.085 Long: 147.7644 Depth:7 Mag:5.3


16/04/2011 07:06:52 -20.1698 147.6792 0 4.1


16/04/2011 13:06:44 -20.1911 147.6921 0 3.2


16/04/2011 15:33:19 -20.1284 147.7587 4 3.4


17/04/2011 01:35:55 -20.1737 147.6676 0 3.2


17/04/2011 18:41:20 -19.8029 113.5252 30 5.3

More info can be found here on Australia Earthquakes.
235. IKE
What's that on the latest ECMWF heading for south Florida?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif


Quoting RastaSteve:
I wonder how this past weekend's outbreak stacks up compared to other outbreaks in history?

Some may remember this, It was a year before I was born...

The Super Outbreak is the largest tornado outbreak on record for a single 24-hour period. From April 3 to April 4, 1974, there were 148 tornadoes confirmed in 13 US states, including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and New York; and the Canadian province of Ontario. It extensively damaged approximately 900 square miles (1,440 square kilometers) along a total combined path length of 2,600 miles (4,160 km).

The Super Outbreak of tornadoes of 3-4 April 1974 remains the most outstanding severe convective weather episode of record in the continental United States. The outbreak far surpassed previous and succeeding events in severity, longevity and extent.


Larger Image

Date of tornado outbreak: April 3-4, 1974
Duration(1): ~18 hours
Maximum rated tornado(2): F5 tornado
Tornadoes caused: 148 confirmed (Most ever in a single-day outbreak)
Damages: $3.5 billion (2005 dollars)
Fatalities: 315-330
Areas affected: Most of central and eastern North America

(1) Time from first tornado to last tornado
(2) Most severe tornado damage

L = 90W
April 17th, 2011



April 17th, 2010



April 17th, 2011



April 17th, 2010



The open Atlantic and Central Carribean cetainly are cooler than last season, but the Gulf of Mexico is running away from what it was last season and to add fuel to the fire, Southern Florida is expecting low 90's for the next 7 days. Gulf Temps are going to soar.
Quoting jeffs713:

Not with that cap.



Notice the HUGE jump in temp, and HUGE drop in dewpoints at 850mb. THAT is an incredible cap, and is whats killing our rain chances.

And yes, the temp at 850mb is the same as it is on the ground.

And at 740mb, the relative humidity is a whopping 9%.

I don't know of any storms, hurricanes included, that can handle that kind of dryness.


The drought in Texas stretches across the state.
According to the National Weather Service, the period between Feb. 1 and now is the second driest on record for the city of Houston. Will be 90 Degrees by Wednesday....
Link
Quoting uptxcoast:


The drought in Texas stretches across the state.
According to the National Weather Service, the period between Feb. 1 and now is the second driest on record for the city of Houston. Will be 90 Degrees by Wednesday....
Link

Can this La Nina end a bit faster, so the atmosphere will adjust and give us some rain?

I have a distinct feeling that our YTD rainfall will be close to average by September or October... I just fear how we will get to average. History says that we will get our average in one very large rain event, which quite frankly... scares me.
Those Australian Earthquakes are in an area that has not had a history of Earthquakes.
Quoting fireflymom:
Those Australian Earthquakes are in an area that has not had a history of Earthquakes.


Is there no fault line in that area?
Complete Update





Quoting ILwthrfan:


Is there no fault line in that area?

we have fault lines.
Quoting AussieStorm:



Date: 16/04/2011 UTC:05:31:18 Lat: -20.085 Long: 147.7644 Depth:7 Mag:5.3


16/04/2011 07:06:52 -20.1698 147.6792 0 4.1


16/04/2011 13:06:44 -20.1911 147.6921 0 3.2


16/04/2011 15:33:19 -20.1284 147.7587 4 3.4


17/04/2011 01:35:55 -20.1737 147.6676 0 3.2


17/04/2011 18:41:20 -19.8029 113.5252 30 5.3

More info can be found here on Australia Earthquakes.





was that long post needed plzs next time post links
Quoting DestinJeff:


"Rut-roh."

It is nice to be away from the blog for awhile, then come back and still see the bickering, etc. There's no place like home.

*clicking my heels together*
There's no place like home
There's no place like home
There's no place like home...

Nope, didn't work.
Quoting jeffs713:

Can this La Nina end a bit faster, so the atmosphere will adjust and give us some rain?

I have a distinct feeling that our YTD rainfall will be close to average by September or October... I just fear how we will get to average. History says that we will get our average in one very large rain event, which quite frankly... scares me.


Yep, one of those events that you see people saying "It never flooded here before....."

Get your flood insurance now....
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Is there no fault line in that area?

I don't think that there has been a great deal of research into fault lines down under as Quakes are a rarity especially in the Queensland area, their last Quake of note was in 1939.
"Yep, one of those events that you see people saying "It never flooded here before....."

Get your flood insurance now...."
Sounds like Houston.
Quoting uptxcoast:


Yep, one of those events that you see people saying "It never flooded here before....."

Get your flood insurance now....

Exactly. When my wife and I bought our house, she didn't think we would need flood insurance, since we are technically outside of a 500-year floodplain. (our property is within the 500-year floodplain, but our house itself is not). I eventually convinced her to get it, since we have two storm sewer inlets on our curb, and in Houston, pretty much EVERYTHING is in a 500-year floodplain, regardless of what the maps say.
Quoting Tazmanian:





was that long post needed plzs next time post links


NO

Take post 238 as an example.
Quoting fireflymom:

I don't think that there has been a great deal of research into fault lines down under as Quakes are a rarity especially in the Queensland area, their last Quake of note was in 1939.

on the link i posted at the bottom of that post, click one of the Australian Quakes, then click under change background, click Geological faults then click go, and you will see this.




Green lines are fault lines.
Nice link Aussie, thank you.
Sky News Newsdesk Via Reuters:
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission monitoring nuclear plant in Virginia following power loss during tornado.
Quoting fireflymom:
Nice link Aussie, thank you.

your welcome
257. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


"Rut-roh."

It is nice to be away from the blog for awhile, then come back and still see the bickering, etc. There's no place like home.
Ain't love great?
NEW BLOG
"WRAL has an impressive time lapse animation from a skycam on a tall skyscraper in Raleigh showing what at the time was believed to be a rain-wrapped Raleigh tornado moving through downtown, but was actually just a thunderstorm downdraft."

A correction is necessary. A photojournalist atop the RBC Plaza was pointing his camera to the southwest, then south. This corresponds to the path of the tornado as it approached from Holly Springs and passed over Interstate 40 at the South Saunders Street exit. The tornado is wrapped in rain, and visible briefly as it passed just to the southeast of the BB&T Tower. It then continued through the east and northeast side of the city.