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Tornadoes kill 3 in Michigan...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on October 19, 2007

More tornadoes hit the U.S. on Thursday and early Friday morning, causing damage and injuries in Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, and Florida. A 29-year old man was killed in Kalkasaka County, Michigan, when a tornado destroyed his home. Two other people were killed in Williamston, Michigan, after a tornado destroyed their lakefront home. In Nappanee, Indiana, five people were injured and 20 homes destroyed by a tornado at 10:30 pm. At least eight people were injured in western Kentucky from a series of tornadoes that raked the area, and a tornado hit downtown Pensacola, Florida, flipping cars and damaging the town's main shopping mall. A tornado that hit near Paris, Missouri, killing two people just after midnight on Thursday, was rated as an EF-2 storm with top winds of 135 mph.

The storm system that spawned this week's severe weather has moved over the Eastern U.S., and there is a chance of severe weather today from Florida northwards to New England, according to the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Only isloated tornadoes are likely today, as the atmosphere is not nearly as unstable as it was Wednesday and Thursday.

"Medicane" (Medepression?) hits Spain
A tropical storm-like system swept over the island of Majorca in the Mediterranean on Wednesday, triggering flooding that killed two people. The storm then made landfall on the Mediterranean coast of Spain yesterday morning near the city of Murcia. The satellite presentation of the storm at landfall (Figure 1) showed well-formed spiral bands and a cloud-free center. Murcia, Spain reported sustained winds of 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph, at 14 GMT Thursday. A personal weather station in Santa Pola recorded sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 45 mph, and 0.68 inches of rain during passage of the storm. We have a number of other personal weather stations in the region, but none reported higher winds, or a pressure lower than 1013 mb. Radar from the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (Figure 2) showed some well-organized banding. The UKMET model did not indicate the storm had a warm core, so this was likely not a true tropical depression. Sea surface temperatures were about 23° C (about 1° C warmer than normal) under the storm, which is quite a bit colder than the 26.5° C usually associated with tropical storm formation. The satellite presentation suggests that the storm was probably generating a shallow warm core near the surface, and was getting some of its energy from release of latent heat--the same energy source that powers tropical cyclones. Yesterday's "Medepression" was probably a hybrid tropical/extratropical storm, and was predominantly non-tropical.


Figure 1. Satellite image from NOAA-17 polar orbiting satellite at 10:37 GMT 10/18/07. Image credit: U.S. Navy.


Figure 2. Radar image at 6:20 GMT for the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Image credit: Spanish Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INM).

Warm-cored hybrid storms have been reported in the Mediterranean Sea before, and there is a large body of scientific literature published on the subject (see below). These storms can become quite severe and cause considerable damage. However, there is no system in place to name these storms, and the National Hurricane Center is not responsible for issuing warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There are quite a few "Medicanes" in past years that would have earned names as subtropical storms had NHC been responsible for warnings in the Mediterranean Sea. There is concern that global warming may raise sea surface temperatures enough in the Mediterannean later this century to allow full-fledged hurricanes to form and threaten the densely populated cities that dot the coast.

Some of the scientific literature discussing hybrid storms in the Mediterrean Sea:

Emmanuel, K., 2005, "Genesis and maintenance of Mediterranean hurricanes", Adv. Geosci., 2, 217-220.

Lagouvardos K., V. Kotroni, S. Nickovic, D. Jovic, and G. Kallos, 1999: "Observations and model simulations of a winter sub-synoptic vortex over the Central Mediterranean", Meteorol. Appl., 6, 371-383.

Mayengon, R., 1984, "Warm core cyclones in the Mediterranean", Mariners Weather Log, 28: 6?9.

Pytharoulis, I., G.C. Craig and S. P. Ballard, 2000, "The hurricane-like Mediterranean cyclone of January 1995", Meteorol. Appl., 7, 261-279.

Rasmussen, E. A., and Turner J., 2003: Polar Lows, Cambridge Press. 214-219

Rasmussen, E. & Zick, C., 1987, "A subsynoptic vortex over the Mediterranean with some resemblance to polar lows", Tellus, 39A: 408-425.

Reale, O., and R. Atlas, 2001, "Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis", Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Reale, O. ,1998, "Dynamics and classification of two sub-synoptic scale "Hurricane-like" vortices over the Mediterranean Sea", Annales Geophysicae Part II: Hydrology, Oceans & Atmosphere (Supplement II to Volume 16), EGS, C634.

How to search for strongest winds from a storm
A good way to search for the strongest winds from a storm in our personal weather station data is to load a google map for the region of interest:

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp? zip=00000&wmo=08360

Then, click on the station plot for stations of interest. The history page will then pop up, allowing one to see plots and tabular data for today beginning at midnight local time for the station. Airport weather data and conditions from U.S. buoys are also available on the same google map. Use the search box at upper right to change the location the map is centered on.

Tropical update
The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The GFS model is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone on Tuesday about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. None of the other models are going along with this forecast. If there are no major developments to report this weekend, I may not update this blog until Monday.

Jeff Masters
Pensacola Tornado
Pensacola Tornado
Looking west down Cervantes from Barcelona.
Storm Clouds
Storm Clouds
Storms rumbled throughout MI as October thought it was April. Great clouds, moving fast!
Beautiful Storm
Beautiful Storm
Taken while chasing in Oklahoma around the OKC area

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

nite baha, thanks for the compliment!

and i think i was a little to far north for Jose, LOL, my brain is fried, it is midnight for pete's sake, LOL
beell, where you go man?
tigger - looks like you out lasted everyone!
hello, hello, hello, is there anybody in there?

Dating my age for who ever gets that as a song. LOL
hey zoo, thought you left a while ago, LOL
The weather pattern is strange this month - it feels more like august the october. And all the rain & heat have given us a new batch of mosquitos - could do without them.
Went to pick my teenager up from the movies - back again
know the feeling, was outside this evening and got eat up with gnats and mosquitos...not right for october...
watching the water vapor - same thing is happening - the rain seems to be gone before it gets into south fl
ah, my teenager is in college in RI, too far to drive him to the movies, LOL
when do you usually start cooling down?
youngest of 4 - she's 16, won't be driving until next March, so Mom is still taxi cab.
we were supposed to be inundated with rain early yesterday from the mid west...disipated before it got here, had no more than a few clouds.
I am youngest of 4 also, I have 2 kids one is 18 and the other is 3
someone from north carolina said the same thing - as strong as the front was you would think that the rain would make it the east coast.
I can ususally open my windows this time of year to keep the house fairly cool, still running the AC right now, even at night and I keep mine about 77 degrees
mine are 16, 17, 24, 26
1018. Rodek
Check out how cold it is in Florida!! Look at my zip code 32547. :)
1019. beell
tig
Just came back in. Needed to run thru small localized rain shower (wx talk). It is Saturday night.
well - I'm off, otherwise I will be miserable in the morning. Have a good night.
wb beell
nite zoo!
-5 hmm? do they have you confused with the artic?
1024. beell
nite zoom i am i/zoo miami/zoomiami
1025. Rodek
yep.. Says it's -5 here in Ft Walton Beach. Anyone have an engine block heater I could borrow?
hey beell, check out WU temps for zoo, just looked at them and they say -7 degrees f lol
saw your forecast for the week zoo, you are cooler than we are! we are not supposed to go below 80 until next saturday
dang, it appears as if I am alone... =(
well, since I am alone, I guess I am going to leave and bid myself and any lurkers a good night!
1030. JLPR
well i see no activity in the blog well ill just speak to myself lol
no im not crazy :P
well do i see a low developing here or is the convection playing tricks at me?
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

loop
1032. TayTay
Lighten up, Calvin. Don't have to be a control freak and quoting rules on people.
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced.

Active periods--notice how postings shift
1000. tiggeriffic 3:58 AM GMT on October 21, 2007
Jose, where are you, SC?

Tigger, sorry for fallig asleep. The 27N82W part of Jose27N82W are the coordinates of my location - Englewood, FL.
Hey, everybody. I slept in this morning, and haven't even got a chance to look at the satloops yet.

Plus I gotta get a cup of coffee . . . LOL

I'll be back in a trice, once I've viewed a few items of interest. . . .
Good morning all!!!
Is everything lagging behind again or is no one here this morning?
Monring

Morning everyone who's here. I see the wave but that front looks long & strong enough to effect that wave like either pull it out to sea or disrupt it enough it dies off.
Weather456
am i seeing correctly is there some form of rotation with the tropical wave near 10N 53W
Mediterranean Non Tropical Low





1041. stoormfury 9:42 AM AST on October 21, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather456
am i seeing correctly is there some form of rotation with the tropical wave near 10N 53W


Let me check
Maybe a low trying to form, but shear will prevent anything from developing IMO.
Shear is 30kts. at 10n 53w
It is difficult to tell due to the heavy thunderstorms, but looking at the low level cloud motions, a broad ill-define circulation is centered somewhere near 10N/54W. LINK
Weather456
It does look like a LLC is trying to form at 25N87W and is just missing the strong shear in that position.Goes 1km Link
Morning.
low is trying to start but doesn'tmatter shear is high in the close vicinity and the low/wave will go bye-bye in a matter of hours/days.
Kajiki Almost Extratropical

Numerous evidence showed that Kajiki is losing its tropical characteristics.

1. This has to be the hardest evidence. The surface wind pattern of Kajiki is highly extra tropical, where u have sudden ill-define shifts in wind direction and speed and advection. Also satellite imagery showed a front attaching itself to Kajiki and its losing its central core. See below.




2. Kajiki is also losing its warm-core structure. Below is an image of 100mb Temperature from Yesterday (Before) to this morning (After), clearly shows the lost of the upper warm-core. Its becoming shallow.



3. Surface wind, temperature and rainfall patterns reveal non tropical characteristics like isobars crossing the isotherms, which is an indicator that temperature gradients exist.





The latest frames are trying to indicate that a llc is trying to formm near 10n 54w. the area is to the west of the upper level anticyclone base which is at52/53w and the system which is causing that amount of shear to this tropical wave. it will be quite interesting to see what transpires with subsequent frames
Just lurking, but it seems the High pressure that is forcast to build in the next few days is extremely large for this time of year it covers a large vast of area..i'm i correct
What an interesting season in 2007 for sure...Iam currently waiting on the tropical cyclone report on Karen which should be out this week after speaking to a few at the NHC.For those that have not seen Humberto's report here is the pdf.Here's Ingrid.
Hurricane23 that report was for Hurricane Lorenzo
Yes that my bad its a little early lol...
Anyway on a more siginificant note for south florida ive been looking at the GFS model runs the past few days and i will say this if it is correct this will be the 1st significant cold front for south florida this year with some cool temps followed by a great drying trend.

As of right now iam looking at a wednesday -thursday time frame on the nice changes.

Anyway folks enjoy your sunday!Adrian
mornin all!
Morn'n all. Looks like another heavy rain event shaping up for NW Florida. Convection in GOM moving north along with a warm front. Cold front moving in from the west providing lift and shear and instability. The ground here is already saturated from the insane rain of 3 days ago. This system needs to go park itself over N Georgia. Crap.
GULF OF MEXICO/ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W....

High pressure dominates the Eastern Plains and Southern United States providing fair skies and plenty sunshine from Texas to the East Coast. A general southwesterly flow aloft covers much of the Gulf in the left entrance region of an upper ridge in the Atlantic. High clouds extends from Mexico to 90W between 30N and 22N. Cloudiness and shower activity over the remainder of the Gulf in associated with a stationary front extending across the Gulf from 22N/97W to Southern Florida near 27N/81W. Additional clusters of thunderstorms near 24N/85W where a surface trough extending from the Caribbean Sea is enhancing instability.

A cold front goes from Southern Florida along 30N/70W 35N/60W to beyond 40N/57W. This front lies below diffluent flow west of the same sharp ridge in the Atlantic providing for a swath of cloudiness and showers within 60-100 nm along the front.

A sharp upper anticyclone is over the Western Atlantic near 29N/71W supporting mid-upper level dry air producing for fair weather skies from the front to beyond 60W, which includes the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The most active continues to lie in the Northwest Caribbean where a surface trough, no longer interacting with an upper low, is enhancing showers and isolated thunderstorms long the Belize, and Yucatan Caribbean Coasts. Meanwhile, an upper level trough/dry air continues to surge deep into the Caribbean providing for fair skies over Central/Eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 80W and 70W.

The upper trough is helping to draw mid-upper level moisture from thunderstorms over Panama across the Eastern Caribbean Sea, with mid-upper level scattered cloudiness seen east of the trough.

Surface observations revealed trades are generally on the light to moderate side across the Caribbean today due to a weaker pressure gradient. The highest winds are generally approaching the Yucatan Channel where the pressure gradient is tightest between the Caribbean the surface trough and front over the Gulf. As a result, seas average 3-4 ft over most parts increasing to 6-7 ft near the NW Caribbean.
This is interesting news
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
i made some corrections to paragraphs 1 and 2.
Slowwwww today....
Is that a weak low in the east central GOM?
I have a question for you guys on a nice slow day?

I am going on vacation.. January 5th - 20th. Going to the Blue Bay in Cancun.. any guesses on what the weather is like around that time?
I dont think a low is in the East Gulf

________________________________________________

The country of Nicaragua is in a sate of disaster due flooding from Heavy rains. Floods have washed away make-shift homes, trucks and other debris. The country is asking neighboring countries for help namely Venezuela, since they are still recovering from Hurricane Felix, this year which killed over a 120 ppl in September.
righto 456
1069. icmoore
Good morning all. StormW talked about a ULL in the GOMEX yesterday in his synopsis.
There was also deadly flooding in Haiti. Images courtesy CNN





From this mornings NHC discussion

A SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE SAME ONE THAT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO.

The ULL is down to the midlevel & is what is in the east gulf. For those that think this is a weak surface low check the surface observations. Nowcoast is handy. Hasn't made it to the surface yet.
weather456
i have been watching this CATL for the past few hrs. it looks to be getting organise with every frame dispite having to fight very strong shear. it will be interesting to see what transpires in the next few hrs
The Largest Marine Layer in the western Hemisphere.


This marine layer is formed when air whose dew point is 20C moves over water whose temperature is 12C. This causes the air to cool well below the dew point (supercooling).

The development of La Nina along with the cold Peru current has cause this airmass to become rather extensive and thick. The weather around the Galapagos Islands must be muggy and cool and misty.





Snow In Colorado



Conifer, Colorado



Black Forest, Colorado


___________________________________________________________________

CATL Wave


BBL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007


1214 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES DEVELOPING ALONG
AND NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WILL BE THE COASTAL
PARISHES OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT DIMINISHES FARTHER INLAND AS THE WARM
FRONT ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ROTATIONS BECOME MORE
ELEVATED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FLOODING RAINS WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR AT TIMES. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS. WEAK SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER
TODAY FOR A RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

STRONG NORTH WINDS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND HAM RADIO OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT AND STAFF ACCORDINGLY FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER RESPONSE. A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAY UNFOLD
OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY IF HEAVY RAINS TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA FOR A PROLONGED DURATION. LOGISTICS FOR ROAD CLOSURES AND
TRAFFIC PLANNING SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR MONDAY.
the (London) Telegraph has an article on the great scientific progress being made regarding 'steering' hurricanes...and the legal and moral questions arising from the possibility...
I'm in Pensacola and it was a wild day Thursday. At work (a glass company, which is not safe in a tornado) we all stood out front of our building and watched the funnels come down, touch and go back up only to repeat itself about four times. It was fasinating to watch. 86 homes suffered damage / 24 had major damage. One poor family had to rush their daughter to the hospital for her injuries, only to return home and find their house was completely looted. But you wouldn't believe the community as they came together to help them. A contractor is offering to rebuild their home, a funiture company is furnishing their home, another company is providing clothing, etc. It's really great to see the fellowship in Pensacola!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
giving everyone a "head's up" - i washed my car today for the first time in MONTHS...we are going to have rain in Georgia.
Where do people who live in the Caribbean go for vacation? To California. I think I have SAD from the lack of sun. :) It is also FREEZING and I can't figure out how people here can be in shorts and short sleeved shirts and I am in jeans, sweatshirt and heavy jacket. :) We flew over the tornados and storms on Wednesday and it was a bit freaky to see lightening from the TOP (flying over). Have a great day to everyone where it is quiet in the tropics.
1083. beell
Note that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is slowly warming up to the idea of severe along the Gulf Coast. Right now, conditions seem limited to development of surface based storms from SW LA eastward. Elevated convection is probable N and well inland of coast. As usual, rotating cells would be sfc-based.
Gone

Thursday/Friday we had steady rain north of Dothan, AL(at times heavy) for over 24 hours straight. Haven't seen that in over a year! This afternoon it is starting to 'build' again. It is getting cloudy, blustery and very humid. The radar in the Gulf looks like the stuff south of P'cola is moving NNW, while the stuff south of PCB is moving NNE. It'll probably split in the middle and leave SE Alabama dry as a bone! Manwhile, my allergies and arthritis say we are in for some kind of weather...

Sis said FWB area got 7 inches of rain Thursday. Not sure how much we had up here, but my little red gardening wagon not only filled up, it spilled over. How's that for a fancy rain guage????

At least my Boxer 'pup' finally learned to go outside and take care of business in the rain....he's almost 9 months old and Thursday was the FIRST time in his life he would go out in the rain to 'squat'. Guess he decided that a little bit of water on his coat was better than hiding inside and whining in discomfort.
strong rtn flow off gulf severe weather out break stongly anticapated along gulf coast from la to fla panhandle all points north strong cold front sweeping across plains indicates extreme temp drop behind front of 30 to 40 dregree change with intense storms ahead of front area wil track ene towards est lakes by late tue early wed possible cutoff before approach over lakes
Evenin Folks....

Here in the orlando area........we are getting some heavy thunderstorms.........

Looks like there is some rotation
Not all the ingredients are there but we are close..........
Some of the storms are moving to the right of the general flow

The low levels are very weak
Did anyone else go to the link Storm posted for GRLevel 2 & 3 software trial? Neat severe tracking tool.
1091. beell
Right now-based on numbers, charts, sat loops, etc, confined to an itty-bitty laptop screen located 400-500 miles away, SE LA looks to have a few parameters favorable for development.
What a strong statement I made huh.
beell, you saying I could get severe weather? I'm in southeast LA. Interesting... I enjoy watching severe weather.
1093. beell
Maybe KM,
Basing this on prog charts depicting Lifted Condensation Level/Level of Free Convection.
LCL/LFC
Closer to the sfc and the closer these 2 numbers are to each other would support some deeper convection. Currently around 800/1000 meters above ground level.
Also, mid/upper winds are better here now. A few cells SE of the LA delta now.
So far, other areas to the east support convection but would tend to be higher based.
As always, wx radios and local sources are your best bet.
I heard they found a planet rotating around a different star. They say the planets hurricanes can reach 10,000 MPH wow! Forgot it's name though.
Autumn's late for you guys in south Florida
1096. beell
Also, dewpoints in SE LA are in the 70's.
1097. beell
This is a much more credible source-note still using "Slight" in the wording.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2007

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE LA...SRN MS AND FAR
SRN AL...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS ERN LA AND
SRN MS BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND
THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG LATE TONIGHT IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM ABOUT 20 KT TO ABOVE 30
KT ACROSS SE LA AND SRN MS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE COASTAL SECTIONS
OF LA AND MS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
Also, dewpoints in SE LA are in the 70's.

That'll definitely provide some energy for any severe storms.
Beell,
I think you are correct. Looking at WV the jet stream is coming mixed with the dry line and moisture screaming out of the GOM, it appears the complete North part of the GOM is in for a rocky nite and maybe tommorrow.
1100. beell
Worth a mention here anyway Tampa. Best set-up remains just along the coast. Not very far inland, so maybe anything would be weak and short lived (same thoughts conveyed in NWS/SPC wording). Might be a better night for water spout chasing. Wait...in a boat at night looking for severe wx. Nah-never mind. Bad idea lol.
LOL
I was in a 24' boat in a storm with 10ft. seas no thank you...so dam sick i wanted to jump in.....lol
1103. beell
With my boating skills, I would not have to jump in. The ocean would jump in the boat.
1103. beell 6:42 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
With my boating skills, I would not have to jump in. The ocean would jump in the boat.

Good thing my boating skills was better than my mind. No one should have been out there in that size boat, but it just jumped out on top of us......i now look at the weather real close before going off shore very far.
Sorry for the type O it was a 24ft triton.
My husband moved our sailboat from New Orleans (pre Katrina) abd the plan was to make it to Ft. Myers - however literally out of the blue they got a low that sent the winds to 60 mph and the waves to 20-25 feet - destroyed their cell phones and GPS and VHF radios - he didnt call me when he was supposed to and I was "this close" to calling the Coast Guard helicopters in when he called me collect at work - those puppies can come up in a flash and be exremely unpredicble and dangerous - so even with the modern conveniences of boating Mother Nature can spring some nasty surprises on you....
1108. beell
On a dare, w/a buddy, crossed a 5 mile wide lake w/3-5 foot waves driven by a 20-25knt winds behind a cold front in a 17' canoe.
We did a masterful job at holding just the right angle to keep water out. It was fun-til we got to the other side and saw same 5' waves crashing up against huge flesh/boat eating limestone rip-rap.
Not a graceful landing. Not a well conceived idea.
1109. icmoore
Good evening Tampa, Beell, and anybody else here. Is it just slow today or are you still having trouble with the postings. Hows the Gomex tonight. Decent amount of rain here.
1082. jamnkats 3:09 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
Where do people who live in the Caribbean go for vacation? To California. I think I have SAD from the lack of sun. :) It is also FREEZING and I can't figure out how people here can be in shorts and short sleeved shirts and I am in jeans, sweatshirt and heavy jacket. :) We flew over the tornados and storms on Wednesday and it was a bit freaky to see lightening from the TOP (flying over). Have a great day to everyone where it is quiet in the tropics.


Hey Jamn,

I hope u are enjoying yourself in spite of the cold LOL.

People keep telling me I live someplace exotic, and I have to correct them: no, what's exotic is snow, and trains, and beaches that don't have sand on them! LOL

I spent the summer in the Rockies, and I felt like the only person for MILES in any direction wearing a jacket. What can I say? What they call summer weather is like the depth of winter for me . . .

Wow. ONly a little more than 100 posts all day!

Things must be veerrrrryyyyyy sssllllooooowwwwww in the tropics . . . .

LOL

I am pleased to say we made it almost to 6 p.m. before we got any rain. Most days recently we've had at least one set of showers before noon . . .

What's the latest on the CATL wave people were looking at this a. m.?
An interesting comment on the TS Ingrid preliminary report:

"It is notable that the GFDL Hurricane Model correctly predicted the weakening, in this case, in the sheared environment. In earlier years that model was notorious for over-intensifying tropical cyclones in environments of strong vertical shear. This change could be attributable to recent improvements in the GFDL model physics."

I think the NHC's track forecast has been improving because they've been using the models on a variety of different kinds of storms. Perhaps 2007 will provide sufficient data about storm intensity so that we'll be able to see improved intensity forecasts as well.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 212351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 7N-20N ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE PICTURES THIS EVENING
CONTINUE TO SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING ON THE LOWER CLOUD FIELD
AROUND THE AXIS. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED...AND MOSTLY DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE AXIS DUE TO
WLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 8N-21N BETWEEN
45W-55W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N30W 12N50W 10N63W. BESIDES
FOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-37W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
AXIS NEAR 8N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE
NE COAST OF VENEZUELA...TRINIDAD...WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
ADJACENT WATERS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 57W-65W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT IS PUSHING N THROUGH THE NRN GULF TONIGHT...MOST
DEFINED IN THE NE PORTION OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT
IN ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS E OF
92W. THE MOST PRONOUNCED TSTM ACTIVITY IS JUST OFFSHORE CAPE SAN
BLAS FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ONSHORE THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SE LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO MON. ISOLATED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 92W...STREAMING N
AROUND THE SLY FLOW SW OF A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH JUST OFFSHORE SE
VIRGINIA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PUSHING
OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH NORMAL DIURNAL EFFECTS. THE
UPPER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW PORTION
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 86W. THE WSW FLOW AROUND
THE NW/N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM T.S. KIKO IN THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE NW GULF. THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE VA WILL PUSH E THROUGH
MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE
RETURN FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH NLY GALES
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER
MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MESSY WEATHER THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
DIMINISHED...AND IN GENERAL VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING THE BASIN TONIGHT. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS ISOLATED
TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS SEEMS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
(MOSTLY SPEED)...WHERE THE FLOW GOES FROM MODERATE TRADES OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. THERE IS ALSO AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY GIVING FURTHER SUPPORT...EXTENDING SW
FROM WRN PUERTO RICO TO NEAR PANAMA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE THROUGH THE
ERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALSO HELPING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BETWEEN 65W-75W. ELY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MON...BENDING MORE SE IN THE NW PORTION

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN
ATLC...ENTERING THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA AND CONTINUING W-SW TO
NEAR COCOA BEACH FLORIDA. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT IS JUST OFFSHORE AND OVER
FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
THERE ARE NO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ANY MORE...AT LEAST OVER
THE TAFB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. INSTEAD...SFC WINDS HAVE VEERED
MORE ELY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES PUSHING
E FROM VIRGINIA BEACH. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW EXPECTED
INTO EARLY WEEK AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE. THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N75W...THAT HAS RIDGING EXTENDING
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WELL NE OF THE AREA.

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N41W THAT HAS ELONGATED
TROUGHING EXTENDING SW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TOWARDS
PUERTO RICO. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SFC TROUGH ALONG 32N30W 24N42W
25N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE
GENERATING MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 24N
BETWEEN 31W-43W. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SFC
TROUGH...BETWEEN RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 38N40W AND RIDGING OVER THE FAR E ATLC FROM A 1024 MB HIGH
JUST OFFSHORE PORTUGAL.

$$
WILLIS
Hello, Messers Beell, Tampa, Moore and Baha.
(That sounds like you guys should be a high-powered Law Consultancy, or something)

Not much going on tropic-wise. The area of cloudiness in the Atlantic, just east of me, has been there or thereabouts, for 4 days. Producing occasional heavy showers, but not getting any closer at all. Whats up with that. ? Why is it stationary ?
1115. beell
Hey ic, if your still here.
jumping in and out between work/play.
The GOM is doing its best to gather moisture S of the NWD moving warm front-if ya like rain...
Always gotta keep an eye peeled for something tropical in this scenario. Seems ok for now imho.
Addition:Strong approaching cold front should clear the air so to speak-so we should be ok
1116. beell
hey pottery2
ok-i took a turn at ic's question...
hello all - weather wise very quiet today - we had beautiful weather in miami -
I think everyone was outside today or watching football, not many discussionss going on.
Thanks for the 8;05 update, Baha. As I said, we have had some very heavy showers, all over the Island last 4 days. Localised flash flooding and blocked roads in several places. But not our usual ITCZ styuff of rain for a week at a time like it used to be. That area of cloud is moving west at about 15 k., but never seems to get here. Strange. Its been odd all season...
1120. ryang
Hmmm... Interesting wave, at 10N, 50W.
no rain yet but here in Biloxi we're under a flood watch untill Tues
Beell, re: ic's question, and yr. response. I agree with you. Things can happen, and conditions would appear favourable. But things arent happening at the moment, and its been that kind of season. Not predictable realy. Its why I love the weather...
Ryang, long time man. What do you think of that wave ? Think it will eventually get to us? Looks like it might, but will it hold its moisture ?
1124. beell
OK pot, steering weak to the wnw at 5knots per GFS 850mb. Shear is out of the West so convection is displaced from the wave to the E. Supposed to meander around then slip off to the NE between a High to the NW centered over the NW Atl and a High to the SE by next week.
I guess I could call this weakness between the ridges a trof and save a lot of breath.
See it also discussed in the TWD from Baja
ohhh on TWC right now, It Could Happen

"Cat 4 hits Tampa Bay"
1126. beell
That dog looks vicious gcd!
1127. ryang
Hey Pottery!

It might Pottery, there's no dry air, but south-westerly shear is blowing the convection of to the North-east.
that's my Boston Terrier Sadie. She rules the roost. She's the alpha dog. She is nice to ppl but when it comes to other dogs.....let's say she has "issues" with her space haha

I love how the photographers can catch the dogs in action, the dog's expressions
Looks so Ryang. There is a nice flare-up going on now though.
1130. beell
She looks like a 4-legged vampire bat!
just joshin' Boston's are sweet usually.
haha well, she is launched in the air
True, Beell. Thanks.
1133. icmoore
Thanks Beell and pottery2 just checked in and found your answers! Rain and clearing out sounds good me. Have a great night.
Hey pottery,

I noticed that persistent pattern over that area of the SE Car / Antilles. I was wondering if that was normal for this time of year.

Here we have been having "abnormal" rain patterns also. Usually we get rain during the last week of August and first week of Sept. Everybody here says "it always rains the first day of school" and regardless of what your first day is, it's normally true. Not this year. Bone dry. Normally by now the weather has cleared out, unless there's a storm travelling. This year it's rained heavily for at least an hour four days a week. VERY unusual for late Sept and early/mid October.

Even WHERE on New Providence it rains has changed. Normal rain patterns have the NE and central part of the island receiving the bulk of the rain, with the SW in a sort of "rain shadow" caused by the hills running down the middle. This year we've been getting gully-washing, soaking downpours on the SW side of the island while, on the other side of the central range of hills - you got it - Bone dry.

I don't remember experiencing another year when patterns were this anomalous at this time of year.
1126. beell 9:04 PM EDT on October 21, 2007
That dog looks vicious gcd!

Don't matter what it looks like question round these parts is will it hunt?
Yeah, Baha. Peculiar. Sept rainfall at my home was 73 mm. Down from a 9 yr. average ( my measurements go back 9 yrs ) of 214.4 mm. So 30 % is what we got in Sept..
The Government has announced that the construction of 4 more Desal plants will go ahead. Not a bad idea, since the sea around here is low in salinity . However, we are 2 weeks from elections, and we take that type of announcement with a heap of doubt.
BOING! Evening all!
mobile blob startin to take shape..... but the shear, and close proximity to land should limit..... but a stormy nite for the Mobile area.....




BOING yourself, Tigger. How are you this evening.
Tired but here...been a long day, lol
blog still lagging tonight...what up?
Good to see you, even though you appear to me to be up-sided down. I have no problem with that of course,but it surely means that you see things from a different perspective. I must try it out myself.
Do you recommend it ?
It's stuck in a 'time warp'...LOL

Looking forward to the rain and some cooler temps!!!
Caption is don't let life get you upside down...if it does, be like tigger and bounce back!
Good one ! And Tigger is one of my most favourite characters, along with Eyore.
TY very much...blog lagging is enuf to drive a sane man crazy...
.and just so I can say I am talking weather, " it rained and it rained and it rained, Pooh had never seen so much rain .."

Good night all....
SL: Hey, How bad do you think it might get here in Mobile,AL? I am waiting for the news to come on. Where up under flash flood warning right know. I am just wondering been working 14 hour shifts at the Laundre matt all week and havent been able to get on. I have to get up at 4 in the morning. But thanks if ya have time to answer.
Sheri
Where is everyone?
blog lagging too much, admin needs to fix the glitch, i'm out for the night, too much time between posts and have to get up early for work, nite all! BOING!
back side starting the draw off rtn flow from gom over backbone of texas into oka.plains sysyem is under rapid developement phase severe wx possible
Blog still dragging.
got 5 radars open over the Nothern GOM area.
Tampa - LOL games were good, weather was great today, people were doing other things, I guess. Nice of the tropics to slow down right now. of course, have to still check that GOMEX every so often.
1157. beell
You can kinda picture some training of precip setting up based on the movement of t-storms in OK and the High centered out in the Atl and this chart. It's supposed to move off to the east a bit. Storms can only progress east as fast as the front. So the keep forming and moving over the same place. A bit of a squeeze
1158. beell
Thanks for the space-Heading to Square Lake (bed).
Nighty-Nite All
someting real big gonna pop i got a feeling dont like the way vapour comin off gulf that mid level over tex/oka may go deep cutoff 36 hrs out
Jeff, are you related to Squeeky Fromme?
State of Disaster in Nicaragua after intense rains

MANAGUA.— The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, on Friday, decreed the whole country in a state of disaster. This is a result of the serious damage caused by the meteorological phenomena which have affected the country for the last 47 days.

Ortega signed the document after listening to an itemized report of the affectations that began in there on September 4, when Hurricane Felix devastated the north end of the Atlantic Coast.

At the meeting was a delegation from the Government of Venezuela, headed by the Foreign Minister, Nicolas Maduro.

The Venezuelan mission arrived in Nicaragua Friday morning to evaluate the magnitude of the damage, and to determine the best possible way to help those affected.

47 days after the emergency began, the official figures for the whole of Nicaragua are 109 dead, 133 people missing, 216,000 victims of the damage, more than 22,000 houses affected, and 3,000 kilometers of roadways destroyed.
Good Morning

From Last Night

Bow echoes, when they occur, usually occur with a grouping of multicell storms that are arranged into a squall line. The upper tropospheric winds steer storms. These winds help determine the speed and direction that the storms move. The upper tropospheric winds will not always be constant along a squall line. In the regions these winds are stronger that portion of the squall line will surge forward. Also, in regions these winds are drier that portion of the squall line will surge forward because evaporational cooling creates negative buoyancy that will further accelerate a downdraft toward the surface. Since the downdraft from a squall line approaches the earth's surface at an angle, the faster the downdraft winds the faster the storms may migrate forward.

Snow In Eastern Colorado



Other Images centered on Boulder, Colorado

morning ya'll...was gone all weekend...was wondering if anyone could catch me up on what the "blob" south of Mobile was all about...thanks
lol....never mind....Intellicast answered for me....
Good morning....if anyone is lurking?
morning everyone.
I am here
There is a possible spinner just off shore SE of Pensicola
Seems like all the computer models hint of tropical development around the Lesser Antilles in 5 to 6 days. The CMC looks to be on crack right now showing a cold front sparking off two strong tropical systems in the Western Caribbean. But, the models do agree with its projected development of a tropical system around the Northern Lesser Antilles. Comments on this?

I will have a full update on my website today including the first cold front of the season for South Florida later this week.
There appears to be a bad weather day setting up possibly for the Northern Gulf Coast. The SPC has it listed as a slight risk. It appears like alot of things are in place for a rocky day.
Morning StormW.
Good morning Storm....the blog has been slow all weekend...just happy we FINALLY got good rain.
BBL
Still wondering what happened to the second half of tropical season? Have a nice day.
BBL
Morning gang. Looks like there are some differences in the computer models regarding the next front. Some projecet it heading south into TX and stalling. Some show it making it all the way through the SE. Have the models started trending towards a consensus?
light rain, breezy here this morning in Biloxi, still under flood watch untill Tues
1184. surfmom
So grateful to have a decent rain last night. The dog and I were thrilled to walk in it --but we got thick humity this AM. This is the first time in my entire life I am looking forward to a cold front. I've had enough August in October here in SRQ. Hoping that front won't stall in TX, we need to cool off!
I hear ya Mom, I am soooooo over the heat!
Good Morning everyone. Hope everyone had a great weekend.
Sheri
Hey guys i updated my blog http://hurricane1.blogspot.com/
http://hurricane1.blogspot.com/
Just type it it
Where is everyone this morning? Why is the blog loading so slow? I cleaned out my cookies and cache. It takes me 5 or6 times to refresh to see my post. If anyone can tell i would greatly appreciate it.
Sheri
1189. surfmom
I'm waiting anxiously for StormW's am report. I am so hoping to see COLD FRONT into FL. Not only will I cool off, but it might give me a little surf wave action on thusday AM.
IF WUNDERGROUND DONT SORT THESE BLOGS OUT IM GONNA QUIT!
1191. cpaman
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/10/21/wstorm121.xml
Good Morning all. Another crappy day here on the west side. Gotta get my kid off to school. So we'll be sloshing thru mud puddles again this morning. It was dry pretty most of the summer. What a turn-around! Radar out of MOB is looking particularly ugly currently. Lets hope no real spinners develope. We don't need a repeat of last week! Stay safe all.
Morning All! Nicely quiet in the tropics for now. I see the MODELS are taking a slight interest in the area east of the Antillies
Cool weather put on hold again for the South Fla, the front will not make it here. Feels like August not October.
1196. surfmom
Taking kid to school BBL
Hey Folks.........Only thing of note in the tropics right now (based on Sat Loops) is the ball of convection (still attached to the front)which is expected to bring some rain today to the Florida Panhandle.....Seems to me that it is just part of the frontal area which is expected to lift back up and that it is not a tropical threat of any kind because of the proximity to land........Just some rain
195. TheCaneWhisperer 08:39 EDT le 22 octobre 2007
Cool weather put on hold again for the South Fla, the front will not make it here. Feels like August not October.

Thats la nina for you.
1201. icmoore
Good mornig Cpaman, Very interesting story. I can see it now we can't even predict where exactly they are going to make landfall and we are going to try to steer them. Bring in the lawyers and class action suits. So besides having to deal with the goverment and insurance people bring in the attorneys that will speed thing things up. Yeah, right.
Is any of the regulars here this morning?
Sheri
1203. icmoore
Good morning JFV a little quiet around here.
H23: Good Morning. Hadn't seen ya in a while I have been working 14hr shifts lately. so do ya think the tropical weather is over til next Hurricane Season?
Sheri
Monring kids...haven't checked out the models...anything on tap?
raining steady now, not too hard. Just enough to cool things off, sit on the porch and enjoy a cup of coffee.....too bad I have to go back to work
1207. icmoore
Is the weather that is coming into the panhandle what was the ULL that got a little mid level action going yesterday?
1208. surfmom
canewhisper - no cold front in S.FL? What a bummer! Under pressure to get horses fit for Polo, the heat is making it near impossible to work them without breaking them down. It's too dark in the AM to work them, and once the sun is up the heat and humidity really stress them out. They don't want to work in this weather, they're smart enough to know it's too darn hot. I am tired of hosing them before we go to the track, so they start off cooler. looks like a long walk and maybe some trot today. I keep bargaining with mother nature.... "I promise not to complain this year --please send a front to cool us off" I have had it with my brains melting out of my ears and my skin feeling like sizzling bacon.
1209. surfmom
Gulfcoastdweller - sounds like me, just yearning for more cooling rain --happy enough to work in it, even if it means mud....your pooch is totally cute!
1210. surfmom
Off to work, BBL, just hoping StormW will have an encouraging report today with news of a cold front edging it's way down to S.Florida.
Morning folks!
Morning all! Just checked out the models and saw that something could happend around the northern islands later this week...(wait and see mode)

BUT WOW the latest CMC is really crasy lol! look...Link
1213. icmoore
Good morning Flood it is wonderful to see this morning. It has been quite dead around here a lot this weekend. There have been some one man shows going on, people keeping the blog fires burning.
1214. icmoore
Wow CaribBoy, Thank goodness thats not a reliable model this year.
Morning Flood.
Yes indeed, icmoore ^_^
1217. IKE
New blog.
1212. CaribBoy 9:22 AM EDT on October 22, 2007
Morning all! Just checked out the models and saw that something could happend around the northern islands later this week...(wait and see mode)

BUT WOW the latest CMC is really crasy lol! look...Link


Actually without being called a wishcaster the other models the GFS and NGP are showing hints of the same development that CMC shows.
We don't have too many tornados here in the Pacific Northwest, although they are not unheard of here. We recently had a pretty bad wind/rain storm in which one person died. That was a pretty bad storm.



We get a bit of storms here in Sweden as well. We recently had a pretty bad wind/rain storm in which one person died. That was a pretty bad storm.




thanks for this amazingly insightful article on text your wife into bed review .... really makes you think about the things that are important and that need to get done! - how to make your voice deeper
Hurricane is really a scary weather condition, imagine this kind of diameter that it occupies.

Really cool article on how to make your voice deeper I am so thankful that there is someone out there that wants to talk about the topic of losing weight, especially wanting to lose excess weight!


It looks like a galaxy in a telescope.