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Tornadoes kill 21 in Missouri and Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:44 PM GMT on May 11, 2008

Killer tornadoes swept through Oklahoma and Missouri, yesterday, killing at least 21 people. Hardest hit were the towns of Picher, OK, where seven died, and Seneca, MO, where ten died. Damage photos I saw from these towns showed buildings swept clean from their foundations, indicative of at least EF-4 damage, and possibly EF-5. Yesterday's deaths brings the 2008 U.S. tornado death toll up to 96--the most tornado fatalities since 1998, when 130 people died. With at least another month left in peak tornado season, 2008 already ranks as the 12th deadliest year in the 59-year record.


Figure 1. Storm damage reports from the Saturday, May 10 tornado outbreak. Image credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Today's severe weather forecast
Severe weather is not done with the region yet--the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Southeast under their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today. Two tornadoes have already been reported today, one in Georgia, and one in Kentucky. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow today's severe weather. A more significant chance of tornadoes and severe weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday over the deep south, from eastern Texas to Alabama.

Storm chasing with Mike Theiss
No word yet from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss on which storms he intercepted during yesterday's mayhem. Mike is in Tornado Alley this week, performing his annual chase efforts. Be sure to catch his spectacular photos and chase accounts.

Jeff Masters
Tornado over McAlester, OK
Tornado over McAlester, OK
Another view of tornado from downtown McAlester.
Rainbow Left, Funnel Right, House Middle
Rainbow Left, Funnel Right, House Middle
The back edge of a tornadic storm as it left the town of Tom Bean, TX. This storm produced several weak funnels, none of which I ever saw touch down. Still a breathtaking site.
Wallcloud near Lacrosse, Kansas
Wallcloud near Lacrosse, Kansas
Photo of a wallcloud crossing road near lacrosse, Kansas on May 25, 2008. Photo copyight Mike Theiss

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doctor...

The system that was responsible for the severe weather yesterday has wrapped itself in cloud cover and now eerily resembles a tropical feature.

Thanks for the Update Dr M

Yep TN, that is what we call a land-O-cane
Wow, those storms last evening/night were very strong...sorry for those who lost family members in the event!!
Very cool image, TN!
Thanks for the update Doctor.
Way too many fatalities this year.

Nice shot Terra!
Good afternoon all. Hope that everyone made it out well from these devastating storms that ravaged the Southeast.

Just wanted to point out a feature that has caught my attention over the past 24 hours. It appears the tropical wave now just off the NE South American coast has developed a low-level circulation as it has maintained its convection approaching land. I will watch this feature as it moves over northern South America and eventually when it comes back out into the Eastern Pacific. If it can maintain its structure, there could be a good chance we may see development of this feature once it moves out into the Eastern Pacific; thats to say if it will make it.


While watching satellite imagery, it appears the ITCZ may be making a significant push northward as it appears to have become rather flatline at around 7N. These tropical waves continue forcing the ITCZ further and further northward. Looks like there may be another tropical wave coming within the next few days as there has been some intense convection building over Western Africa and moving along the AEJ.

Comments?
cchsweatherman,
I observed that also....
I will have a blog update on that soon.
Good Observation!!


No way! That could pass for a Hurricane at first observation! Where is that located?

The center is right over Kentucky, or about 80 miles SW of Columbus, Ohio. Here's a radar image showing what look like squall lines moving through Ohio and West Virginia.
Also CCHS, I believe the NHC has picked up on that also as there TWD is taking a little longer then usual.
9. TerraNova 6:03 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
No way! That could pass for a Hurricane at first observation! Where is that located?

The center is right over Kentucky, or about 80 miles SW of Columbus, Ohio. Here's a radar image showing what look like squall lines moving through Ohio and West Virginia.


Definitely impressive, Thanks Terra.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 9N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. THIS WAVE MAY
REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.


They did'nt really mention any low-level circulation or an increase in organization...they also didnt mention it running into South America.
CA, the latest GFS has that wave skirting just N of SA. It shouldn't ever amount to anything more then some rain for the islands, but it does look like it may move right off shore and along the curve of SA.
Quickscat doesn't show anything that looks like a low level circulation or surface circulation to me.
Greetings.
a hot 94 here ( 91 at the airport, 10 miles north of me ). Heat index 98 !!! Feels like that too.
You know, this is a small tropical island, about 80 miles by 50 miles. It is not supposed to ever get as hot as this, and 15 years ago, it NEVER did.
I notice the difference in the vegetation, and the fact that El Tucuche mountain, at 3012 ft, used to ALWAYS have a cloud sitting on it, obscuring its summit. Have not seen that cloud in some years now, because the inversion level has gone up to 3500 feet.
This has affected the streams that spring from the mountains that run the length of the north coast ( this is the last section of the Andes, that swings east at Columbia, and down the northern flank of Venezuela, to here ( Trinidad). This is naturally affecting water-catchment areas, as is de-forestation on the hillsides.
From where I am, I can see the Andes of Venezuela, on the Paria peninsula, rising to 6000 ft. There are still enormous tracts of virgin rainforest there, and the Orinoco River ( which is no small stream) empties into the ocean right here. Trinidad is almost in its delta actually.
The Orinoco flood waters provide us with an abundant source of flora and fauna from the mainland, and it is not uncommon to see huge "rafts" of trees and other vegetation washed up ,on the south coast here, with monkeys, snakes,bugs, caiman, etc coming ashore. Its a 7 mile crossing.
Just a little ramble, on an otherwise gentle day. I'll stop now, open another cold beer.
the californiaboy picture is just stunning...
cchs. Looking at that area for the past couple days myself. Hoping it gets here , and drops anchor. LOL
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters!
the good news about the weather here over the last 24 hours (and I'm not just kiddin') is that my allergies are almost tolerable...
TN, while I tend to agree, it also looks like QS missed most of it. The wave would have been further E at the time of the QS pass closer to 45 maybe which is in the blank spot.
Tornado warnings back up in GA

One about to pass over Tybee. Just keep the lightening away from that bomb folks!
I know; but satellite imagery does not show a rotation in the low level cloud deck, either.
Here is a radar loop of the "hurricane-like" low:

SJ...Do you think we're gonna go thru this again today?
Some unreal severe weather this year! Dallas has seen more tornado warnings this spring than I can remember.
That is quite a sight STL! Quite a powerful storm system!
I agree TN, it is a feeble looking thing at very best. Not really very interesting. I am guessing you are debating if it should even be labeled a wave anymore?

Tybee Bomb

I don't know press, it looks like we are setting up in a somewhat dry slot. If so it will be late this afternoon/early evening before anything can develop here. At least that seems to be what the NWS is still thinking as of 1:30ish
13. StormJunkie 6:12 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
CA, the latest GFS has that wave skirting just N of SA. It shouldn't ever amount to anything more then some rain for the islands, but it does look like it may move right off shore and along the curve of SA.


Yeah, The only reason it looks some-what impressive for this time of year at this time is due to 5kt-10kt shear within the area, As it continues to move in a general westward direction shear gets as high as 50 knots, Which is very unfavorable.
The poor Midwest and Deep South have been absolutely hammered week after week. Can y'all throw some moisture down to Tampa please?
Dry Wind 29, gusting to 45, 92F & just waiting for some booger-eating moron to flick a cigarette out the window & it's off to the races. It's inevitable. Film at 11.
Exactly HI! God forbid anyone do that around my neighborhood today. The winds are blowing everything to my house.
I realize that every hurricane season has its own unique features, but in general the weather so far this year looks to me an awful lot like 1999. That was my first year living in Atlanta, and like this year, our severe weather (tornadoes and hail) season started early and ran late. I don't remember much about the hurricane season that year except for Hurricane Floyd and its disastrous stall over North Carolina.

On the severe weather subject, I wonder if anyone here could help me understand a fairly unique feature that I've observed this spring.

At least twice now this year we've had a strong cold upper-level low to the west, surface low near to that, and attached warm and cold fronts. Nearly 24 hours before the cold front came through, some sort of "ripple" of energy ran through Georgia in the warm sector -- south of the warm front and continuing southward -- firing off a small number of violent and tornadic storms. No mesoscale disturbance rotating these storms around itself, just a patch of incredibly violent thunderstorms.

It was out of a little patch like this that Atlanta got its Downtown tornado on March 14th. The next day the whole state had a widespread severe weather outbreak with the warm front and cold front. This weekend, much the same: Yesterday a patch of a few severe thunderstorms appeared, well south of Atlanta, in the warm sector and not on the warm front. The disturbance slid southeast, firing off violent storms for many hours; two people died. This morning, the main storm system came through as a completely separate entity.

I've watched many dual severe weather outbreaks in my day, one associated with a warm front, another associated with the low and/or cold front, but these odd "patches" or lines of extremely violent storms, well ahead in the warm sector, are new to me. Any comments?
WSU volcano expert says eruption in Chile may grow

PULLMAN - It's an explosive topic. The Chaitén Volcano erupting in Chile is causing chaos in the South American country, as villages are evacuated and a massive ash cloud billows out of the mountain.

WSU Geology Professor and volcano expert, Dr John Wolff says the volcano has been blowing up since last Friday and there's no telling when it will stop. The 20-mile plume has sent ash into Buenos Aires, shutting down the airport. But if the plume changes formation, it could get even worse.

"Everybody’s seen or remembers the 9-11 footage, when the towers came down and the billowing clouds spreading out," said Wolff. "The type of activity I am referring to, which is called a pyroclastic flow, is like that except the cloud that is spreading out over the ground is several hundred degrees, it's very very hot."

Some have compared the situation to Pompeii, the Roman city destroyed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in AD 79.

Wolff said the activity is not unusual, but special in the fact that this type of eruption only happens about six times each century.

"At any one time, there might be 20 volcanoes erupting, the next week there might be only half a dozen, so it all evens out," he said.

Back in the US, Wolff said Yellowstone is a super volcano that will eventually blow.

"It would certainly devastate the surrounding area, the ash cloud could spread over most of the United States," be said.

Closer to home, he said, although Mount St. Helens has been getting more active since 2004, another Cascade Mountain is more dangerous.

"Rainer is an ice capped volcano and those are very dangerous, because as soon as any heat reaches the upper levels of the volcano, it doesn't even have to be a big eruption, the ice will melt and cause devastating mud flows," said Wolff.
The last time a supervolcano erupted, it nearly wiped out the human race. It left only about 2,000 survivors.
A really bad idea... surprised that we don't hear of storm chasers getting themselves killed all the time...

Amazing Kansas Tornado Footage
TN, no question Yellowstone would be a global disaster!
Supercell passes by right to the north--good rotation and mammatus Link
Awesome footage by Jim Reed!

STL, life without risks is not life at all. We just all take them in our different ways.
TN, no question Yellowstone would be a global disaster!

Luckily there's no signs of it erupting any time soon!
No kidding, I don't want to be around to see that.
that will be mom natures way of fixing global warming terra nova blow up a big super cano wipe out 90 percent of the planets life forms
Ok, off to have dinner with Mom! See y'all later ☺
Michael that guy running is a darwin award nominee!
That tropical wave around 50W, looks to be moving slightly north of due west (I hope it moves above 10N...I need the rain)...
Link to CMC image:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg
Look at the stuff to the east of the swirl
32. OrchidGrower 2:45 PM EDT
...some sort of "ripple" of energy ran through Georgia in the warm sector...

Sounds like an outflow boundary or pre-frontal trough.
That tropical wave around 50W, looks to be moving slightly north of due west (I hope it moves above 10N...I need the rain)...

It could be following what the GFS was forecasting, It to skirt the coast of South America and make it into the Caribbean.
I have updated my blog on the Tropical Wave near 50W and on the blob of convection west of Africa.

Josh's Weather Center

Click on "Josh's Blog" on the navigation bar. Post comments if you wish.
I know I'm not posting here too often, and excuse my offtopic if it is, but...WOW! This kind of weather is a bit unusual, and it seems is leaving every time a trail of destruction bigger than last year... or a past years. Maybe this intense activity is not only generated by the global warming, maybe it is some cosmic and natural "forces" implicated in the process of intensification. Right now, I am wondering why a massive cold front is standing over eastern europe, and the powerful african current it doesn't have sufficient strenght to move it to a northern position, and in my town actualy is like in early spring, cold and often cloudy... Meanwhile, allmost threatening Japan, the typhoon Ramassun just reached yesterday it's peak, like a cat 5 storm... Everything is corelated, and it is kinda sincronized but I need to gather more info about this. I'm still impressed about the large scale of dammage... I'm trying too to understand what is happening, and I want to try to give a word of hope to those who suffered after they lost everything... The Best be with you all!
Real sad...the situation keeps going down hill and relief is barely getting anywhere. The government of Myanmar is making a huge mistake.

CNN: Relief boat sinks, leaving aid in Myanmar river
how strong was the volcano that caused the year with out a summer?
Anoutfit called Weatherflow has a pole with an instrument package out on my favorite beach. Are they stealing our weather and selling it back to us?
pressure here falling amazingly fast Link
2004 went down as record setting year for tornado activity in the Midwest. Of course 2004 was a very active hurricane season as well. Now 2008 seems to be another terrible year for tornadic activity. Any thoughts on this or just an awful consequence
Wow, the center of the low is 2 counties below me
This sounds like another Greensburg...

2 dead in Southeast storms

In Johnson County about 170 miles southeast of Atlanta, the small town of Kite was destroyed by what the storm, said Caroline Pope, a communications officer with the Johnson County Sheriff's Department. She said close to 1,000 people live in Kite.

"From what they're telling me, it's gone," she said from the dispatch center in the jail, which was operating on a generator because the power was out.
54. Clearwater1 3:28 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
2004 went down as record setting year for tornado activity in the Midwest. Of course 2004 was a very active hurricane season as well. Now 2008 seems to be another terrible year for tornadic activity. Any thoughts on this or just an awful consequence


There is some connection there; all of the hurricanes hitting the U.S. produced several hundred tornadoes, pushing 2004 to a new record. One very big difference between 2004 and 2008 so far is that 2008 has been far deadlier, likely because of many more stronger tornadoes; 2004 had just 36 tornado fatalities all year. Also, for a comparison to 2005, 2005 had no tornado deaths at all during April-June, a record low I think (Oklahoma set a record by having no tornadoes during the month of May; 2005 also had a very dry spring around here, while this year has major flooding), so if there is any correlation, we don't have to worry about another 2005.
There is lots of heavy rain here and miniature mudslides are forming in the dry pond in front of our house, this year really is much wetter than last year.
Hello I am Back Wow it has changed in 1 years

Yes The Low Over the Midwest/North East Does Look Like a Hurricane ....

And The one off sure Also
What Happend To Patrap? Or The Other 2003-2004-2005-2006 Blogers?
hey sammy, they are still here.
Close-up radar view

60. sammywammybamy 4:50 PM EDT on May 11, 2008
What Happend To Patrap? Or The Other 2003-2004-2005-2006 Blogers?

Let the first invest pop close to the U.S. and watch the blog explode.
HurricaneGeek !
Were getting all of that rain
Afternoon H23; and welcome back sammy!

Are you all seeing this? This looks exactly like a hurricane. It even has an eye-like feature near the center on Water Vapor imagery.

This resembles the Hurricane Huron low that Doctor Masters posted about last year.
Yes , 15 named storms this season right ? Or More ? What you Predicting ( Question directed to All )
60. sammywammybamy 8:50 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
What Happend To Patrap? Or The Other 2003-2004-2005-2006 Blogers


*Correction* The blog wasent started untill 2005.

And Patrap was on here the other day or earlier today.
TerraNova here are 2 nice views of the low!

Animated large zoomed image



Animated normal view

Yes , 15 named storms this season right ? Or More ? What you Predicting ( Question directed to All )

Earlier this month I said 15 but now I'm having second thoughts. I'll be putting out my official predictions on June 1.
TerraNova here are 2 nice views of the low!

Awesome! It's supposed to spin off another low out of that area of convection off the East Coast and then merge with it; forming the Nor'Easter that will impact the Middle Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow.
Wow, Early today shear was about 50Knts at the highest in the whole Caribbean and within 3 hours time it has dropped to 40knots, I believe we will continue to see the Caribbean rapidly decrease in shear levels along with other parts of the basin as we approach the hurricane season.
69. TerraNova 9:13 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
Yes , 15 named storms this season right ? Or More ? What you Predicting ( Question directed to All )

Earlier this month I said 15 but now I'm having second thoughts. I'll be putting out my official predictions on June 1.


Thinking of lowering your number or highering? I'd personally be highering my number...Conditions are really starting to rapidly fall into place...shear is dropping, SST's are heating up...very little dust...tchp is getting higher...All is setting up for a very active season.....also especially if Neutral conditions maintain through the season...
Despite of cooler SST and the direction o the stream, this year could be a new record breaking due to the intensification of the sun activity... 15 named storms? my opinion is that it is too early, still, to predict the number of the major storms. But my fears may become true, if the new patterns are aplying and the new models of storm formig are correct.... so I say about 15 named storms are correct, and maybe more than 15....
Good evening and happy Mother's day to surfmom and other mommies blogging here. My thoughts are also with those who have a sad day due to the recent outbreak. First Super Tuesday, now Mother's Day... really bad timing this year. :-(

This "landcane" looks quite scary, huge system. I wonder whether this rotation will still persist some time by tapping in moisture from the Great Lakes. Is this possible? Could it result in further severe weather potential for the next days or rather more precipitation? I'd appreciate anyone's comments on this, thanks a lot in advance.

*back to lurking mode*
tipsku
Katrina was the last major us landfall

2006 and 2007 were quite ( compared to 2004 , 2005)
51 weatherbro "how strong was the volcano that caused the year with out a summer?"

The Mount Tambora Eruption
75. sammywammybamy 4:23 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
Katrina was the last major us landfall


Don't forget about Rita and Wilma...
Thinking of lowering your number or highering? I'd personally be highering my number...Conditions are really starting to rapidly fall into place...shear is dropping, SST's are heating up...very little dust...tchp is getting higher...All is setting up for a very active season.....also especially if Neutral conditions maintain through the season...

Honestly; I'm not sure yet...a lot of people have been raising the possibility of an El Nino and this would lower the amount of storms. And with ocean temps warming faster and faster, this is becoming a better possibility. I know that Adrian lowered his count significantly because of this. Also, some of the long scale shear forecasts are showing above average shear in the key areas for development in July and August.

But you are perfectly correct in saying that most other conditions support a very active season. I think I'm going to ask W456 and StormW about how these things are looking in terms of named storms before I post my predictions.

The arguments are strong for both above average season and average season. If I were to lower or make the count higher right now; I would only do so by 1 storm.
Thanks for your input, TerraNova. While I was typing my questions you already answered one of them. =) So this is going to develop into a storm. It will be interesting to watch its progress.
Thanks for the pics, 23. If I had not known it's over the CONUS, I would have thought it to be a decent hurricane.
73. neutrino006 4:22 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
...this year could be a new record breaking due to the intensification of the sun activity...


I am not sure what you mean by that, if anything, a record-long solar minumum may be occurring (aside from the Maunder Miniumum); just about every day has read like this for months now (some say solar cycle 24 started as early as July 2006; any cycle 24 sunspots so far have also been very tiny and short-lived as well):


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flare activity was
detected. The visible disk remained spotless
.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
Completely blank.

Hey everybody! AS many of you know I had a contest on my blog then it got deleted one way or another, I emailed to try to get it back. I got no response. I take that as a 'no'. So I took the liberty to make another contest, so if you wish to, please feel free to join. Everything is on my blog. The last day is May 18. Details on my blog... Thanks
The SOI 30-day average today is currently 4.63, in the neutral range right now...not much change in the number for more than a week. SSTs are above average in the Gulf and parts of the gulf stream as well as in the EATL, however in parts of the CATL and most of the Caribbean is below average (but in the Caribbean SSTs could support development now).
The SOI 30-day average today is currently 4.63, in the neutral range right now...not much change in the number for more than a week. SSTs are above average in the Gulf and parts of the gulf stream as well as in the EATL, however in parts of the CATL and most of the Caribbean is below average (but in the Caribbean SSTs could support development now).

I think most of the blame of what is currently inhibiting development goes to hightened wind shear caused by the troughs that are still moving off the east coast. According to the GFS they're not going to stop anytime soon.

What else is keeping things from forming at this time?
this is what I'm saying about solar activity increasing,it is not in the visible spectrum, but right now the intensification is in all areas of the sun, not in spots, this anouncing the start of the aparition of the largest spots later in this year. Link
And I hope the earth will not be in the way of those massive solar storms, but right now the earth is receiving a larger amount of energy from sun, and this is not all;)
I was in wilma ....

And it wasn't pretty at All ....

I was in :

Frances, Jeanne, Wilma , and a bunch of other cat 1,2,3 south florida storms ....
I'm only need to know... I want to make corelations between the entire structures that could lead to major storms forming, and this structures are including the jet streams, the sun activity, the earth's magnetic field anomaly.... Hope you'll gonna help me to understand better ;)
If you wanna join the chatroom ( join weather chat)
The latest forecast doesn't call for much of an increase in activity by the end of the year, it isn't until 2009 that activity really rises, although when it does, it will increase much faster than it decreased:

boy....we are right in the crosshairs (Johns Island, SC)....tornado warning....nasty looking blob.....sounds awful....nothing yet....but soon....
Any Chance of Development in The Atlantic Basin?
Central Florida Fire Danger very high the next few days, please don't throw your cigarettes on the grass. This situation might get pretty dicey here, hope it does not become like 98.
ReliefWEBLink

Staffers, supplies on standby to avert potential public health crisis in MyanmarLink

GDAC NARGIS Stats and Time Line Link


92. sammywammybamy 6:06 PM EDT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Any Chance of Development in The Atlantic Basin?


The long range GFS has been predicting something for a few runs now.... looks like a TS off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. Too far out to mean anything though
No ones on the blog.....
tornado media reporting tornado on the ground at Fenwick Hall plantation....Johns Island SC...that's my house....no tornado here...
local media reports tornado on on the ground at Fenwick Hall Plantation..Johns Island SC..my house.....there's no tornado here....I swear to God....
1 Tropical wave catches my eye ....

the one that might make it to the carribean ...

But even if it makes it past the shear and death trap for hurricanes i forcast it to only make it to Td status
a least 4 inches of rain today thats just in the afternoon another five hours of really heavy rain there is large puddles forming I bet the mudslides in the dry ponds have grown and multiplied maybe the entire wall of soil will fall in.
media reporting "...several homes demolished..." on Johns Island.....
tornado comfirmed 1/2 mile from me ....Stono River bridge onto Johns Island...1/2 mile from me....I just got a little rain....
99. sammywammybamy 10:38 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
1 Tropical wave catches my eye ....

the one that might make it to the carribean ...

But even if it makes it past the shear and death trap for hurricanes i forcast it to only make it to Td status


Shear is not as bad as it could be at this time, In the Caribbean the overall shear values have significanly decreased a reasonable amount in the past 12 hours, I have been expecting shear to start to take a rapid decline and i believe this is when it will all start occuring as we are approaching the hurricane season. For instance shear was about 50knts at the highest in the whole Caribbean earlier today, It now stands at between 30knts and 40knts at the highest. (In the Caribbean). That tropical wave though will very likely not become a depression as the circulation would have to make it to the surface or lower levels and become closed. Not only that it would need an overall better cloud/band pattern and better convection (consolidated). SST's are high enough for tropical development and shear within the general area of the feature is between 5-15 knots....However this system is still south of 10N and the further south it is the more unlikely it is that development will occur due to the large area of atmosphere it would have to spin-up, Aside from that it's still May. I mean based on the conditions being somewhat reasonable i won't disgard any chance of it developing but i just dont see it occuring. Just my opinion though.

And wow shear in the western caribbean has tookin a sudden decrease over the past 24 hours.
92. sammywammybamy 6:06 PM EDT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Any Chance of Development in The Atlantic Basin?

The long range GFS has been predicting something for a few runs now.... looks like a TS off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. Too far out to mean anything though


I would think that the GFS is hinting the TS to come from the Tropical wave currently near 50W.
all is clear...gonna go ride around and see what's damaged...
presslord...let us know. I really like Charleston are.
presslord...let us know. I really like Charleston area.
107. franck 11:02 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
presslord...let us know. I really like Charleston area.


They have fixed the "Modify Comment" button....So when you make a mistake just click it, Thanks ;)
the weird thing about this was....it happened 1/2 mile from me...yet I heard and saw nothing....just a bit of rain....
the modify button still isn't cooperating....sorry for the duplication
Hey folks!
I now have my forum page ready to be used! Come discuss the different topics with me and others!

Click here!

Either go to the "Tropical Forum" page or you can discuss my blog on my blog page which is here

thanks!
112. HIEXPRESS 11:21 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
1976 season started early


So what are you saying?
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI HAS CONFIRMED
THE TOUCHDOWN OF A VERY STRONG TORNADO ON MAY 10 2008 IN NEWTON
COUNTY MISSOURI. AT APPROXIMATELY 559 PM A TORNADO CROSSED THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER JUST NORTH OF IRIS ROAD. THE TORNADO MOVED EAST
SOUTHEAST TO THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 43 AND IRIS ROAD WERE IT
INTENSIFIED BRIEFLY TO AN EF-4 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY
170 MPH
. DAMAGE INCLUDED THROWING AUTOMOBILES UP TO ONE HALF
MILE...COMPLETELY DESTROYING BUSINESSES AND NUMEROUS HOMES. MANY OF
THE TWELVE REPORTED DEATHS IN NEWTON COUNTY DURING THIS EVENT
OCCURRED NEAR THIS INTERSECTION.

THE TORNADO GREW TO ONE MILE IN WIDTH AS IT CROSSED JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 86 AND BB. IT CONTINUED EAST
SOUTHEAST...CROSSING HIGHWAY NN BETWEEN IRIS ROAD AND JUTE ROAD
BEFORE ONCE AGAIN GROWING TO ONE MILE IN WIDTH AS IT STRUCK THE
COMMUNITY OF FREDVILLE
AT HIGHWAY 175 AND JUTE ROAD.

THE TORNADO MOVED TOWARD THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 59 AND
60...DESTROYING MOBILE HOMES AND TAKING ROOFS OFF FRAME HOMES AS IT
MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE OF GRANBY AS AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH 110
MPH WINDS. THE STORM TOOK A DIRECT PATH TO NEWTONIA. BASED UPON
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO MOST HOMES IN
NEWTONIA...THE STORM WAS RATED AN EF-1 WITH WINDS NEAR 100 MPH.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED INTO BARRY COUNTY ONE HALF MILE SOUTHEAST
OF THE INTERSECTION OF MULBERRY ROAD AND ZEBRA ROAD AS AN EF-1
TORNADO...DAMAGING HOMES AND TURKEY BARNS. IT PASSED THROUGH THE
NORTH SIDE OF PURDY WITH AN EF-2 RANK...SNAPPING POWER POLES AND
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO FRAME HOMES AND DESTROYING MOBILE
HOMES. ONE FATALITY OCCURRED AT COMMERCIAL STREET AND BUSINESS 37.
THE TORNADO WEAKENED AS IT TRACKED EAST OF PURDY LIFTING
APPROXIMATELY ONE MILE SOUTHEAST OF THE COMMUNITY OF MCDOWELL.
Several new Brush fires along the east coast of Florida, not the least of which is the 600 Acre fire in Brevard that has I-95 shut down - maybe until tomorrow.
Yeah it's like a potentail firestorm building quick around here...I-95 (Brevard, Indian River), US1 in Brevard, LPGA up in Volusia, Friday road in Cocoa, Weber in Malabar..Closed. Fire near I-4.. Alotta major arteries. I reprised my Fire blog with the links & posted the road closings in the there.
Hey all, my mother called me and said there was a storm that produced many tornadoes, and almost looked like it had an eye. Now my mom tries, but she doesn't know much about weather. I have been without tv or Internet most of this weekend so I'm not sure when this "eye" occurred. Do any you have any more info on this? I still shot would be over and above... Thanks!
92. sammywammybamy 6:06 PM EDT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
Any Chance of Development in The Atlantic Basin?

The long range GFS has been predicting something for a few runs now.... looks like a TS off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. Too far out to mean anything though

I would think that the GFS is hinting the TS to come from the Tropical wave currently near 50W.


Is see it; it's been placed near the coast of Costa Rica. I think it's unlikely due to it being 300+ hours out, and being too close to land. It's very hard for storms to develop in the SW Caribbean unless there is a southerly steering current, or else they ram into shore before they can do anything.
You know where you see news reporters video tape cars going through puddles while their poncho blows in the wind during a T.S or hurricane
Thats what is like in VA heavy rain strong wind gust an minor flooding this is the heaviest rain I have ever seen just 5 inches this afternoon. The mudslides haven't escalated though but I'm sure they will by this morning
8:00pm discussion on the CATL Tropical wave...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE.


Yes...So my rain chances should increase!
117. AWeatherLover 6:48 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
Hey all, my mother called me and said there was a storm that produced many tornadoes, and almost looked like it had an eye. Now my mom tries, but she doesn't know much about weather. I have been without tv or Internet most of this weekend so I'm not sure when this "eye" occurred. Do any you have any more info on this? I still shot would be over and above... Thanks!



I think the "eye" has to do the the appearance of the low pressure system that caused the outbreak:



113. CaneAddict 7:26 PM EDT on May 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
112. HIEXPRESS 11:21 PM GMT on May 11, 2008
1976 season started early

So what are you saying?

CaneAddict
Are you asking if I wanted to go out on a limb & say that, we would have a similar start to the season as the year before the 1977 climate change, a year with a similar waning LaNina? PDO

Nope! Wasn't even thinking that. Just plucked it out of mid air.
Hi Guys and Gals (god did that make me sold OLD)...

weather to the south of us was awful all day - I am hoping the folks there are okay - all day long warnings for them. Tornados, Tstorms etc - they don't separate our county from theirs and we were lucky. Something of their store landed on the 95 and there was a warning of some sort - I haven't heard much since we haven't turned on the news yet but this day was rather exhausting starting with me waking up the kids at 8:15 in the am telling them to gte into the bathroom to hide. being from the west, I'm not used to this...

Having a glass of vino now to ease out of the day - anything interesting going on?
Well....we just rode all over Johns Island....and saw not so much as a twig in the road...ran into stormjunkie....I think maybe he saw a tree down on the side of the road...please allow me to vent: the local Charleston media had us all scared crapless...it's just unforgivable to create that sort of hysteria without any basis in reality...at any rate, all is well in the Lowcountry...
I hope this weather pattern changes in N.C. I know its May,(severe-weather month).
For three days there has been 3hailstorms and 2days of several tornado warnings.

The deadly EF3 tornadoe that ripped thru Advance,North Carolina has now reported another funnel.(I would not be surprised that just today Eastern N.C has around half dozen confirmed tornadoes.)

Where I live we had a small hail-storm this morning which I guess saved my area of getting more severe weather durring daylight.Around the time the Sun came up we had clouds and fog with temps at 49-53degrees aross the county.I noticed when you get fog, most of the time you dont get severe weather.
92. sammywammybamy 6:06 PM
The long range GFS has been predicting something for a few runs now.... looks like a TS off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua. Too far out to mean anything though
118. TerraNova 7:51 PM
...I think it's unlikely due to it being 300+ hours out, and being too close to land. It's very hard for storms to develop in the SW Caribbean unless there is a southerly steering current, or else they ram into shore before they can do anything


What would the steering currents look like for that now? We've seen storms (especially STS) deal with a little shear.
Link

Eastern N.C. Few tornadoe warnings.
Its not over yet. The ULL is still putting a phenomenal twist in storms to the north and south in the form of a 500mb jet. Just about anything that pops up is tornadic..

Something just popped up out of nowhere near jax Florida and is looking suspicious just a few minutes in.

These surface winds are unusual too, to say the least.

Watch out tonight. - things are expected to die down, but you never know.


2109 LINCOLNTON LINCOLN NC 3552 8125 HAIL RANGING FROM GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZED. (GSP)
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 43W AND
THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE.


Once in the Western Caribbean, Development is possible...
1977 climate change, a year with a similar waning LaNina? PDO

1977 had an El Nino (started with an El Nino, then neutral, then another El Nino, both of weak intensity), and the PDO was going positive, the opposite of what we have right now. Also, the main effect of the PDO on Atlantic hurricane activity is to reduce ENSO-related variability in negative PDO years (in other words, the difference in activity between El Nino, neutral and La Nina years is less; the last couple years support this); in contrast, variability is higher during positive PDO years. Although we will have to see if it stays strongly negative, since it didn't after the 1988-89 and 1998-2000 La Ninas (probably because the PDO tends to shift negative during strong La Ninas; the signatures are similar except the PDO mainly influences the North Pacific and North America while ENSO mainly influences the tropics).
128. JFLORIDA 8:20 PM EDT
Good call- apparent brief TVS with that, high tops, tstm wng up
I agree with you press - they scared us terribly today but then they came on and said even though it's starting to warm up and be sunny now after the storm - that is the biggest threat - now we are really in for trouble. So now I've been watching wx all night - I gotta say - for nothing going on in the low country - you don't have to stir it up for excitement.
130. MichaelSTL 8:25 PM EDT

"the year before"
1976
I seriously doubt any development will take place yet.
What would the steering currents look like for that now? We've seen storms (especially STS) deal with a little shear.

The steering currents at the 850mb level (for weak storms and waves) would put it ashore in Nicaragua, not giving it enough time to develop as it would be accelerated to the west far too fast.

I think the next two weeks look clear of activity.
just give mcintosh county a break for tonight - i feel sorry for those folks - understand that Kite, GA is all but gone.
Looks like this 3day severe weather will end Monday in N.C.

Cold air pushing from the mountains will be moving east and so will the severe weather going to the ocean.

** Cold air will meet with moisture on Grandfather Mountain and some of the Highest peaks in the state to produce light snow.**Other locations could be impacted are the peaks around Grandfather and the Black Mountains.No accumulation EXPECTED.High wind warnings should prevent snow to sticking.
134, 135
Playing it safe. LOL
just give mcintosh county a break for tonight - i feel sorry for those folks - understand that Kite, GA is all but gone.

103. CaneAddict 10:57 PM GMT on May 11, 2008

Shear is not as bad as it could be at this time, In the Caribbean the overall shear values have significanly decreased a reasonable amount in the past 12 hours, I have been expecting shear to start to take a rapid decline and i believe this is when it will all start occuring as we are approaching the hurricane season. For instance shear was about 50knts at the highest in the whole Caribbean earlier today, It now stands at between 30knts and 40knts at the highest. (In the Caribbean). That tropical wave though will very likely not become a depression as the circulation would have to make it to the surface or lower levels and become closed. Not only that it would need an overall better cloud/band pattern and better convection (consolidated). SST's are high enough for tropical development and shear within the general area of the feature is between 5-15 knots....However this system is still south of 10N and the further south it is the more unlikely it is that development will occur due to the large area of atmosphere it would have to spin-up, Aside from that it's still May. I mean based on the conditions being somewhat reasonable i won't disgard any chance of it developing but i just dont see it occuring. Just my opinion though.


Thank you ,
mel....I used to work for a member of Congress from GA...Kite was in our district...What happened there?
135. TerraNova 8:40 PM EDT on May 11, 2008
What would the steering currents look like for that now? We've seen storms (especially STS) deal with a little shear.

The steering currents at the 850mb level (for weak storms and waves) would put it ashore in Nicaragua, not giving it enough time to develop as it would be accelerated to the west far too fast.

I think the next two weeks look clear of activity.

More like the next 6 maybe even 7 weeks look clear of activity.Maybe an invest or two without any significant development.
Here in South Florida ...

I would Love to Have a Slow moving Td With alot of Rain to sit over us for 6 days ....

We Need the Rain , Our Lakes have Shrank to The Lowest levels in 10's, 20's, and 60's Years or More

So I would Love for a Td To Help us down here

XD

Just not a storm like Wilma Again
Press - Kite was apparently destroyed altogether...that's what the news is reporting to us at this point.
Powerpoint Presentation from TPC An Early Perspective of the 2008 Hurricane Season

CONCLUSIONS (Above Average Season Potential Exists)

ENSO phase of La Nina continues…however the signal has been weakening with SOI
near long term neutral value. (A number of dynamical/statistical ENSO models are
predicting a shift to neutral late in season)

ENSO predictors are unreliable during the spring which increases difficulty in forecasting
phase during the peak of the season. (July forecast update significantly more reliable)

AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode – low SLP anomalies, high SST departures/E. Atl, weak
Azores high, low shear, low-level convergence, low static stability) and Multi-decadal
Signal (slides) continue to suggest long term favorable conditions over the MDR
(main development region).

Of interesting note, over the past 40 years, instances of powerful and devastating TCs that
existed in the Bay of Bengal were prior to El Nino phases, ’71 ~400,000 dead; ’82 ~60,000;
’91 ~140,000 dead; ’08?)
Evening, everyone.
Looking at the wave off Brazil/ FrenchGuiana. Still holding together, in spite of a lot of dry air north of it. Lost a good deal of its moisture though.
Hopefully, it will migrate a little further north in the next day or two, and drop some rains here in Trinidad.
More like the next 6 maybe even 7 weeks look clear of activity.Maybe an invest or two without any significant development.

Theres no way you can predict almost 2 months away. Terra was being reasonable and saying 2 weeks. In 2 weeks you can say 2 weeks from then you have to go with the flow not jump 2 months ahead.
Recorded a high of 95 degrees with my vantage pro 2 near the NHC close to FIU.
has any one find any news on how storng the Picher Tornado was???
Large area of convection about to come off Africa soon....

147. CaneAddict 8:57 PM EDT on May 11, 2008
More like the next 6 maybe even 7 weeks look clear of activity.Maybe an invest or two without any significant development.

Theres no way you can predict almost 2 months away. Terra was being reasonable and saying 2 weeks. In 2 weeks you can say 2 weeks from then you have to go with the flow not jump 2 months ahead.

Dont worry the blobs will come but just because its june1 in no way does it mean all hell will brake loose.Typically in a normal season june/july are very slow for tropical cyclone development.Iam thinking this year will be no different.
I don't know about the Pitcher tornado taz...but I can tell you the Johns Island SC tornado was a figment of someone's imagination....
It's bone dry and windy as hell here in east Central Florida. Does anyone know if/when we're gonna get some rain?
TWC just had a peice about it ....

Jim Cantore said it was an EF3 Or an EF4

last year on June 3 TS Barry created quite a bit of trouble here for us...
How Many Storms your Predicting then?

Cane Said Shear is Relax , and Shear is a main detremint to Tropical Development other than Desert Sand in the Atmosphere

Instant squall line! :) Link
well thats has to be confirmed you cant this say it was a EF3 or EF4 with out confirmeing it
Hurricanes Hate Jim Cantore

Lol So wherever he is No Hurricane is going to go ....

Taz .....

Jim Cantore is Jim Cantore ( i suggest you wait for the officals to confim it)
157. StSimonsIslandGAGuy - ummmmm..... WOW!
South florida is Bone Dry , Bone Dry

You Want Proof?

http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/index.html

Also Fires are burning on places that are supposed to be covered deep in water ....
What is the Earliest Named storm?
http://flame.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/KBDI/4km_main.html

If you Live In Florida ( This is The Drought Index For Florida ) Supposed to be wet all the time ....

A little too much sunshine
Dont worry the blobs will come but just because its june1 in no way does it mean all hell will brake loose.Typically in a normal season june/july are very slow for tropical cyclone development.Iam thinking this year will be no different.
Action: | Ignore User


Alright i get you, You just made it seem like it wasent possible. Thanks for cleaning that up;)
correction: Maybe Feb. 2, 1958, Groundhog day storm
156. sammywammybamy 1:04 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
How Many Storms your Predicting then?

Cane Said Shear is Relax , and Shear is a main detremint to Tropical Development other than Desert Sand in the Atmosphere


Don't change what i said around to make me look like a fool, I said that shear is decreasing in the Caribbean, Especially the Western Caribbean. I did not say the shear was decreasing throughout the whole basin. However the Caribbean will likely continue to lower in shear values as we near hurricane season.
86. neutrino006 9:43 PM GMT on May 11, 2008

this is what I'm saying about solar activity increasing,it is not in the visible spectrum, but right now the intensification is in all areas of the sun, not in spots, this anouncing the start of the aparition of the largest spots later in this year. Link
And I hope the earth will not be in the way of those massive solar storms, but right now the earth is receiving a larger amount of energy from sun, and this is not all;)


neutrino,

Nice picture and all. Only problems is...that is all it is and it is a representation of only one small part of the spectrum of the sun and without the underlying documentation to support your contention, how do we know that your claim is authentic?

Surely, somewhere on the site that you quoted, there is commentary that supports your contention. Otherwise, documentation that is currently circulating does not support your claim that the energy levels emminating from the sun are on the increase.

Perhaps TerraNova might be willng to comment further on this subject.
165. HurricaneGeek 1:15 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
hey PBGFL, sometime in Jan. I'm sure. I can't tell you the exact date or name or year, but I know Jan. :-)


Comedian

Most Likely JUN Or JUL
Earliest

But it depends on what you consider a "storm." - tropical, sub tropical, depressions... etc.
166. CaneAddict 1:16 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
156. sammywammybamy 1:04 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
How Many Storms your Predicting then?

Cane Said Shear is Relax , and Shear is a main detremint to Tropical Development other than Desert Sand in the Atmosphere

Don't change what i said around to make me look like a fool, I said that shear is decreasing in the Caribbean, Especially the Western Caribbean. I did not say the shear was decreasing throughout the whole basin. However the Caribbean will likely continue to lower in shear values as we near hurricane season.


Wasn't Trying to Make you Look Like a Fool ....



Glad you liked that radar loop JFlorida.
171. sammywammybamy 1:21 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
166. CaneAddict 1:16 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
156. sammywammybamy 1:04 AM GMT on May 12, 2008
How Many Storms your Predicting then?

Cane Said Shear is Relax , and Shear is a main detremint to Tropical Development other than Desert Sand in the Atmosphere

Don't change what i said around to make me look like a fool, I said that shear is decreasing in the Caribbean, Especially the Western Caribbean. I did not say the shear was decreasing throughout the whole basin. However the Caribbean will likely continue to lower in shear values as we near hurricane season.

Wasn't Trying to Make you Look Like a Fool ....


It's alright, Just make sure you explain what i say in more detail next time that's all :)
BTW : Im still thinking the first storm will form this year in the mid to eastern GOM - in the next few weeks, a hybrid, cut off low, etc....
Dont worry the blobs will come
And with them... - crow
;)
Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 49w S of 9n moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from the Equator to 6n between 43w and
the NE coast of Brazil. This wave is expected to reach the
eastern Caribbean on Tue
.


I Think its too early in the Season For Me to get my hopes set high and be let down lol

its Always its going to be a cat 3 its coming its coming , IT WENT poof ....
176. JFLORIDA 9:26
There's a tornado warning north of jax now.

The way it was blown out today, the surf was 1' near shore. Several small boats ventured out off the beach. Hope they aren't out there now.
145. nrtiwlnvragn 7:55 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
Powerpoint Presentation from TPC An Early Perspective of the 2008 Hurricane Season



Wow... How did you find that? I didn't think the NHC allowed us to see what they were thinking about the season before they released their forecast.
179. MichaelSTL 6:36 PM PDT on May 11, 2008
145. nrtiwlnvragn 7:55 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
Powerpoint Presentation from TPC An Early Perspective of the 2008 Hurricane Season


Wow... How did you find that? I didn't think the NHC allowed us to see what they were thinking about the season before they released their forecast.

can we have a link on where you got that from???
Wow... How did you find that? I didn't think the NHC allowed us to see what they were thinking about the season before they released their forecast.

Yeah, I stumbled across it and was hesitant to post it thinking I should not have had access, but I didn't do anything special finding it. Also, its the Navy guy and may just be his thinking not the NHC.
I may be wrong...but the GFS looks to be forecasting a rather active ITCZ, over the next couple of weeks (I know it's far out, just something to keep an eye on; the ITCZ looks pretty active already, though)...
Hi, Dude 77. Still waiting for the rain ?
Taz, here (also see the original post, #145)

It might give a password prompt, but just click OK (you also need Powerpoint to view it, you can use this download if you don't have it).
add this site to your links if you love severe weather this is the site for you this is a site where you can SevereStudios Live ChaseCam Network with out paying $1,000 to go Chase and its free i was tracking matt and brett last night this site is a most have and they have a chat room there has well

Link
thanks STL
Yeah Pottery, but I don't think I'll get much (if any), though...I'm too far north
Michael, are you the Doomcaster? LOL man, LOL
SSTs in the GOM are starting to warm up. Also, what do you notice about the MDR (is it warming up as well)?

196. DDR
Goodnight everyone
Pottery how are things?
Looks like we'll get some rain soon doesn't it.
Instant refreshing air too :) Link
Another good looking one coming off Africa tomorow, 77.
May be that one ?
Stormdude, the MDR is indeed beginning to warm up nicely!

Anyway folks, I am off to bed night all!

Joshs Weather Center
Hi, DDR.
Yeah, a wave off to the east may indeed give us showers Tues/Wed.
Hope it does not stay too far south though. The ITCZ has not moved north much, as yet.
7 inches of rain when I went out I was wearing a poncho but my pants and my shirt were soaking when I got in my cell phone still worked through the storm when i get the videos and pictures on the computer I'll make a link or something. I't still raining
Hi DDR...
Michael, no major hurricanes hit the gulf coast from September 1950 through June 1957, so it can happen.
DDR, my calabash tree still has leaves. In 20 yrs of checking that calabash tree, the rains have NEVER come before it loses ALL its leaves, and puts out small new ones.

So I figure we may get a shower or 2, but the rainy season is a good 3 or 4 weeks away...........

So says my calabash tree.
add this site to your links if you love severe weather this is the site for you this is a site where you can SevereStudios Live ChaseCam Network with out paying $1,000 to go Chase and its free i was tracking matt and brett last night this site is a most have and they have a chat room there has well

Link
And now, me and my calabash tree are going to sleep.
Busy one tomorow. Keep safe everyone......
Good night Pottery
other long periods with no major landfalls in gulf (1911-1914), (1922-1925), and another 6 year period (1986-1991)
Anyway, Good night all
ReliefWEBLink

Staffers, supplies on standby to avert potential public health crisis in MyanmarLink

GDAC NARGIS Stats and Time Line Link
Source: American Red Cross

Date: 11 May 2008
ReliefWEB
Mounting a global response to a massive disaster Link


Christy Feig, Director of International Communication


Sunday, May 11, 2008 — Slightly more than a week after cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar, relief supplies—such as tarps, water containers, water purification tablets, mosquito nets and hygiene kits—are arriving and being distributed. Earlier today, an airplane carrying American Red Cross supplies, including 8,000 mosquito nets, arrived in Myanmar. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 220,000 people have received some form of aid, which includes 80,000 people who were assisted by the Red Cross.

Many more still need assistance. While reports vary, according to the United Nations estimates, at least 1.5 million people have been severely affected by this disaster.
Lots of activity between Africa and S. America! ITCZ creeping north, <5* N. Looks to be quite a bit less shear over most of the s. n. atl. too e. of the Antilles. I'm beginning to wonder about the theories of a late start, ie '04, but things change fast so... we'll see. OK, well y'all have a good evening, if there's anyone even here.
PS, nice to see all the regulars again, welcome back! Well night all.
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) Atlantic Basin Latest ImageLink

GOES-12 Channel 4 (IR) Atlantic Basin Latest ImageLink


Nitey GatorWX

199. Michael 8:57 PM CDT on May 11, 2008
lol Pottery, dont want to be, but I've taken my gut check, and doesn't feel too good for someone


My gut check is always bad since Katrina/Rita...my gut says everything is going to turn into a Major Player and head right for me...So, what I am saying is I am learning to do more observing and less feeling to get what I think will happen with any given storm or storm season...I also tend to ask a lot of questions


Evening all

This wall cloud caused damage on John's and Wadamalaw Islands.

Apparently I just missed getting further in to the damaged area.
Hi StormJunkie...glad you are alright...nice pic
115. HIEXPRESS 7:32 PM EDT on May 11, 2008
Several new Brush fires along the east coast of Florida, not the least of which is the 600 Acre fire in Brevard that has I-95 shut down - maybe until tomorrow.

This fire is now at 1900 acres (~ 3 sq. mi.)
Thanks camsmom, and I did get to view your pictures. Sorry for your loses!

I always try to stay safe, but as with many of us, what we love to do is somewhat inherently dangerous.
Night StormJunkie, Night all.
Night camsmom, hope you had a wunderful Mother's Day!
The damage in Picher was rated at EF4


why EF4
Hello again everyone. Just checking in to see what everyone is forcasting for the hurrricane season .Any thoughts as of yet .It is nice to chat with you all again this season.
+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

The new Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA/1007 MB) forming over the central part of the South China Sea has remained quasi-stationary...located about 595 km. WSW of Manila (14.0N 115.5E). This disturbance has been forecast on almost all of the Numerical Global Models to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 4 days. Long-range forecast shows it strengthening into a Tropical Storm in the next 5 days and may affect Western & NW Luzon this weekend of May 16-19. Stay tuned for more info on this new potential threat.


---
next name if this system develops into a tropical depression within the philippine area of responsibility is Cosme.

next name if this system is classified as a "tropical storm" Typhoon Category 1 by the Japan Meteorological Agency is Matmo.
HIEXPRESS the 1900 acre fire is that the one that was near the 520/I-95 interchange? And if it was which way is it going?
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 12May)
---------------------------------------
Scattered to broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Bay Islands, Andaman Sea, Tenasserim coast, South Arakan coast, and bay between 10N to 16N east of 90.0E in association with low level circulation over the area.
That is bad news for Myanmar. They don't need a developing low.
A Richter 7.5 earthquake epicentered ~90kilometres/~55miles from Chengdu shook buildings as far away as Bangkok, Hanoi, and Beijing.
Chengdu has a population of 11milion. Depending on the directionality of the shockwave*, the casualty toll could meet or exceed that produced by Nargis in Burma.

* Shockwaves can be guided and amplified-thru-compression by old fault lines. eg Tanshan was flattened by an earthquake epicentered ~48kilometres/~30miles away from the city center.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Editing in: "A major earthquake measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale jolted...Sichuan Province" according to their StateSeismologicalBureau.
So far so good. Reports of only relatively minor damage.
Though if I were in Chengdu, I'd still go camping in the open countryside for a few days.
Arctic Sea Ice News from the National Snow and Ice Data Center:
"Although there is more ice than this time last year, the average decline rate through the month of April was 6,000 square kilometers per day (2,300 thousand square miles per day) faster than last April."
However "the ice cover this spring shows an unusually large proportion of young, thin first-year ice; about 30% of first-year ice typically survives the summer melt season, while 75% of the older ice survives."

"If we apply the survival rates averaged over all years to current conditions, the end-of-summer extent would be 3.59million square kilometers (1.39million square miles)."
"With survival rates similar to those in 2007, the minimum for...2008...would be only 2.22million square kilometers (0.86million square miles)."
"...the record low extent, set last September, was 4.28million square kilometers (1.65million square miles)."
Frankly, I think all of the hurricane-season predictors are gonna be blowin' through their hats this year. How are atmospheric models based on an ice-covered Arctic s'poseta work when ya got open ocean there?
8 inches of rain and strong winds this morning there is still rain falling and it will probably keep raining until afternoon. several large branches have fallen
Mudslides have continued through the dry pond
all4 where do you live
Fairfax VA were under flood warning I live on the top of a hill so its hard for the water to do anything more than make large puddles
ok i thought you were up north there if you would like to send some of that water to z-hills in florida i'm 40 miles northeast of tampa no rain here since april 6
(stay safe)
I am up north I'm in the "D.C area" and I wish I could send some water down to you but the rain isn't listening lol
stay safe
salter it not really dangerous outside unless you get hit by a branch or stay out long enough to get hypothermia ( I think I stood out long enough to start getting it ). Its just kind of fun to pretend like really dangerous weather happens here
yes i know they area i lived in southcentral pa for many years if you find a way just send the rain lol ok gots to go boss looking at me stupid so till later see ya
I bet PA got lots of rain this is the heaviest rainfall I have ever seen
yes they did my brother still lives there so im sure i,ll here about it later today ok gonna go this time talk later have a great day
The south pacific is finally waking up for the pros at teahupoo. ASP World Tour
H O G, I was thinking the same thing. Is Mother Nature telling us something? I say lets wait......if she brings us a June storm, then I'll listen.

I was in Katrina, I got aide from the Red Cross, so I try to donate when I can but with all of these natural distasters lately, Mother Nature is going to drain me dry
245. HouseofGryffindor 8:23 AM
With all these disasters lately, I am beginning to think Mother Nature is trying to tell us something.

Yes. Pony up.
American Red Cross Fund
stormjunkie's picture is right over my house...it was a hairy couple of hours....the major damage was on Wadmalaw Island...very rural and poor...we have a staff meeting @ 10A eastern...I'm gonna give the day off to anybody who wants to go out there and help those folks...it was kinda weird...I ran into stormjunkie yesterday after the storm...we couldn't find the damage, yet were just down the road from it...on a lighter note: today is beautiful...
251. KRL
I was in the 6.7 Northridge Quake in '94 and that was the scariest event of my entire life. I can't even imagine what a 7.8 would be like since that would be about 10x more powerful and equal to about 500 Million tons of TNT going off which is 1 Trillion pounds of explosives.

Deaths will probably go into 50,000 to 100,000 plus on this one, if the Chinese government doesn't cover up the stats, like they've done in the past.
Here's the link to USGS earthquake map showing the 7.8 and aftershocks:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/105_30.php
China Is Hit by 7.8-Magnitude Earthquake Near Chengdu

Nearly 900 students were today buried in Sichuan province after a powerful earthquake hit China's central mountainous region, raising fears of a soaring death toll.

At least 107 have been confirmed dead in the 7.5-magnitude quake that struck 57 miles (92km) north-west of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

It said around 900 students had been buried in a high school in Juyuan township, Dujiangyan city.

A Dujiangyan resident searches the debris of a collapsed house. Photograph: Chen Xie/Xinhau news agency/Reuters Tremors from the quake, which struck at 2.28pm (7.28am BST), were felt as far away as Thailand and Vietnam.

Rescue teams were trying make contact with areas cut off since the tremor hit.

The disaster struck China at a time when the government had been sending relief supplies to cyclone-hit Burma.

"We felt continuous shaking for about two or three minutes. All the people in our office are rushing downstairs. We're still feeling slight tremblings," said an office worker in Chengdu.

Tremors were felt in Beijing, about 930 miles away, and the Thai capital of Bangkok, 2,050 miles away, where buildings swayed for several minutes, although there were no immediate reports of injuries. Buildings in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, shook for several seconds.

In Beijing's financial district, many workers left their buildings but there were no visible signs of damage.

"People were shouting 'get out, get out', so we all ran out of our dorm," said a student at a university in nearby Chongqing.

The US Geological Survey said the quake was centred 18 miles below the Earth's surface.

A spokesman for the China Earthquake Administration said it was still checking the epicentre and scale of the quake.

An official with the Sichuan provincial seismic bureau said the epicentre of the quake was in Wenchuan county, in the Aba Tibetan and Qiang autonomous prefecture. The mountainous region is largely populated by Han Chinese but has sizeable Qiang and Tibetan populations.

Chinese state television said the government was preparing to send rescue teams to the region.



"We felt continuous shaking for about two or three minutes. All the people in our office are rushing downstairs. We're still feeling slight tremblings," said an office worker in Chengdu.

Tremors were felt in Beijing, about 930 miles away, and the Thai capital of Bangkok, 2,050 miles away, where buildings swayed for several minutes, although there were no immediate reports of injuries. Buildings in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, shook for several seconds.
In Beijing's financial district, many workers left their buildings but there were no visible signs of damage.

"People were shouting '出去!性交外面 神圣见鬼的粪' , so we all ran out of our dorm," said a student at a university in nearby Chongqing.

The US Geological Survey said the quake was centred 18 miles below the Earth's surface.
255. IKE
New blog....