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Tornadoes, huge hail pound the Midwest, but bring little Texas drought relief

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:41 PM GMT on April 20, 2011

Severe weather blasted the Midwest again yesterday, with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logging 32 reports of tornadoes, 399 reports of damaging thunderstorm winds, and 325 instances of large hail (including softball-sized hail of 4.25 - 4.5" diameter in Clarkesville, MO and Stringtown, OK.) Fortunately, no deaths or injuries were reported from yesterday's storms. The storm also brought the heaviest snow so late in the season to Green Bay, Wisconsin--9.9 inches. This brought the seasonal total for Green Bay to 92.4", the third most on record.

The storm responsible will trek eastwards today, bringing the threat of severe weather to regions of the Southeast hard-hit by last week's remarkable tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the country from Eastern Texas to New Jersey under their "slight risk" for severe weather. According to the latest tornado tallies on the excellent Wikipedia page on the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, 128 tornadoes are confirmed to have occurred, with 39 of these strong EF-2 and EF-3 twisters. Remarkably, there have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes reported yet in 2011, despite the fact that the preliminary 2011 tornado count as compiled by SPC is 611, which will likely make 2011 the most active tornado season on record for this point in the year.


Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 8pm EDT on Tuesday, April 19, 2011, of the storm system that brought severe weather to the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today.

Yesterday's storms bring little drought relief for Texas
Yesterday's severe weather outbreak brought a few thunderstorms to the Dallas/Fort Worth area last night, with up to two inches of welcome rain falling in isolated areas. However, the rains missed the areas of Texas where the worst fires area burning, and strong winds associated with the spring storm helped whip up the fires. Winds will not be as strong today, and the latest 1 - 5 day rainfall forecasts show the possibility of isolated thunderstorms bringing drought relief to the same portions of Texas that benefited from last night's rains. These rains will not be enough to significantly slow down the record fires scorching Texas, though, and the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows little chance of drought-busting rains over Texas into early May.


Figure 2. Total rainfall for North Texas from last night's storms brought only isolated drought relief.

Atlantic tropical disturbance
As a reminder that hurricane season is not that far away, an area of disturbed weather has formed in the Atlantic near 23N, 80W, about 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This system is under a hefty 60 knots of wind shear, but does have a surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has been removed well to the northeast of the surface circulation center by the high wind shear. The storm is expected to move northwest into a region of lower wind shear on Thursday and Friday, and should begin building more heavy thunderstorms during the next three days. The storm is not a threat to any land areas, and will likely be ripped apart by high wind shear this weekend. It has perhaps a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical depression before then. Climatology argues against this storm becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 700 miles northeast of Puerto Rico.

Jeff Masters
Wildcat Fire
Wildcat Fire
Wildcat Fire near San Angelo, Texas. Pictures taken between 3 and 4 pm just to the south and east of Orient, Texas.
April Showers
April Showers
SNOW showers!

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

502. JRRP
lol
Quoting aquak9:
plaza- see post 494.

nuthin nuclear, just some strong storms.


Thanks for that! I was just thinking back a long time.

With something like this going to happen everything is going to be vulnerable, lets hope they got the warnings out.

Sometimes I feel like a fool for not understanding what you experience in the US, in more detail. People would die of shock, here, if they had a dose of what you have over there.
We are only dust in the wind compared to the people who are going through this as 'salt of the earth.'

Its going to be an interesting Year, aquak9.
AAUURRGGHH!!! monster CV rolling offa Africa!!!
505. xcool
JRRP nooway!!!
Quoting PlazaRed:


Intriguing!!

Reminds me of the Manhattan Project?

Very quiet on here, Everybody must be comparing Invest statistics!!


No one is on the Blog..

The Blog is very slow...
Quoting aquak9:
AAUURRGGHH!!! monster CV rolling offa Africa!!!


Lol.
plaza- I think we are all equal, no matter where we live.

that's sweet of you to say, though.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


No one is on the Blog..

The Blog is very slow...


High!

So as not to ruin a quiet night be 4 the storms lets look into the 'armpit of Africa!' as Skye called it a few months ago and although it has produced some very significant drops of moisture in the past, this year I do tend to think that the prawn has been turned into a Queen and the lesser islands to the north of the 'shoulder,' might have to take a background seat as the big 'nasties,' will start to flow early and no doubt several Fore-Casters, will run screaming to their close down buttons stating and '[quoteing'} the echo's of,''Thou shalt not be Amazed!
512. xcool
It's about to getting busy out there in the Tropical ;) Jmoooo
Quoting DestinJeff:
Oh how I have missed satellite shots of Africa. They are helpful in planning activities for 4-6 weeks from now.


:) Hey....

What Happen to the "Season Chart" and the Defcon Levels?
515. xcool
bye all going to class
Quoting DestinJeff:


haha... I forgot about the DOOMCON levels.

The Chart has made an appearance or two already, although I intend to let that live on in the annals of blog-history. I intend to do that.

Surely another horse will die, and I will subsequently beat it all season long.
Stay tuned.




Season Chart in HD
oooo- a much thicker, more potent chart
One of your President 'Chappies,' said,

you can fool all of the people, some of the time and you can fool some of the people all of the time but you cant fool 'all' of the people 'all' of the time.

I think he was called Lincoln?

In my pointless opinion the crux of the climatic absorbency has been passed and from the center outwards the change will become apparent.

Clingers will cling?
Dreamers will dream?
Doubters will doubt?
Casters will Cast,
Those who have to live through it will stand aghast!
Tomorrow is just a memory from today, when it Dawns.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


No one is on the Blog..

The Blog is very slow...


It is only April.
What is left of 91L after 60+ knts of shear Will eventually make its way into Florida and then into the Gulf..

526. flsky
You are correct w/Lincoln, and quite poetic otherwise!

Quoting PlazaRed:
One of your President 'Chappies,' said,

you can fool all of the people, some of the time and you can fool some of the people all of the time but you cant fool 'all' of the people 'all' of the time.

I think he was called Lincoln?

In my pointless opinion the crux of the climatic absorbency has been passed and from the center outwards the change will become apparent.

Clingers will cling?
Dreamers will dream?
Doubters will doubt?
Casters will Cast,
Those who have to live through it will stand aghast!
Tomorrow is just a memory from today, when it Dawns.
528. JRRP
Quoting xcool:
JRRP nooway!!!

jejejje
529. flsky
You need to be very careful what you post here. Otherwise, you'll never hear the end of it!

Quoting DestinJeff:


haha... I forgot about the DOOMCON levels.

The Chart has made an appearance or two already, although I intend to let that live on in the annals of blog-history. I intend to do that.

Surely another horse will die, and I will subsequently beat it all season long. Stay tuned.
as the sun sets in the sky
531. flsky
Not entirely.... haha

Quoting DestinJeff:


it's not the size of the chart that matters. either way, it's a motion in the ocean.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What is left of 91L after 60+ knts of shear Will eventually make its way into Florida and then into the Gulf..



We kneed, these little 'aperitifs,' in order not to choke on the extravaganza of the main course?

Then again, with a SST in Excess of 80/F who No's what will come to transpire? We already had a bit of the ''Reincarnation,'' stuff in Australia, earlier this year as Aussie will testify when what had been, recycled itself! back into a big 'hullie,'
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as the sun sets in the sky
Look at the flow from the cost! SO COOL:D
Ok. ..someone jump on this question, now is a good time for me to learn....As I stare at the visuals of this 91L.....what is it I'm looking for to make it so? Know a little about earthquakes, more about tornadoes......but AOI's, invests, not so much....
Complete Update

Finally :)






Quoting DestinJeff:
time to go ... the pace of the blog is making me winded.

ZzZz...zZz...Zz...z
Quoting sammywammybamy:

ZzZz...zZz...Zz...z


Oh yee of little 'Faith,'

Its going to be a very interesting 'year,' or 2.
New Models for 91L will be out in the next 2 Hours.

Quoting Levi32:
18z HWRF
Interesting...not buying it though.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting...not buying it though.


Whats your Opinon?

Ive already stated mine:

91L becomes a Sub tropical depression then gets ripped apart with Shear bringing showers to S. and C. Florida for a Day or two.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting...not buying it though.


Actually, I think that's defiantly a possibility if all the conditions work right.
18z GFDL is interesting, if not a little wacky with the path, but maintains a weak intensity throughout.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Whats your Opinon?

Ive already stated mine:

91L becomes a Sub tropical depression then gets ripped apart with Shear bringing showers to S. and C. Florida for a Day or two.
I see a small window of opportunity for development between 36 and 60 hours as depicted by the 12z ECMWF. After 60 hours the system will probably move/drift towards the west or southwest given it weakens (due to a very sharp increase in upper-level winds) and follows the shallow layer steering currents.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Ok. ..someone jump on this question, now is a good time for me to learn....As I stare at the visuals of this 91L.....what is it I'm looking for to make it so? Know a little about earthquakes, more about tornadoes......but AOI's, invests, not so much....


EYES!!

Look back over this last 50 or so posts and there are 2 things you will see.

''1,'' nobody has had had any form of fight, or major disagreement and all as been in good fun as much as we can portray, the fact that there have been 2 significant storm invests in the North Atlantic in the months of March and April. all its implications will be a game for the Wrath's.

The second thing which we will call ''2,'' is that the people who know more than we can ever hope to grasp have been only too forthcoming with their knowledge, in order that we can grasp the enormity of the global weather situation. Thanks to all of them.
{Keeper, Sammy, Jeff's Doc,and all the others who know.}
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see a small window of opportunity for development between 36 and 60 hours as depicted by the 12z ECMWF. After 60 hours the system will probably move/drift towards the west or southwest given it weakens (due to a very sharp increase in upper-level winds) and follows the shallow layer steering currents.


And the shallow layer steering currents will take it where?

548. beell
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Ok. ..someone jump on this question, now is a good time for me to learn....As I stare at the visuals of this 91L.....what is it I'm looking for to make it so? Know a little about earthquakes, more about tornadoes......but AOI's, invests, not so much....


More moisture, less windshear.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


And the shallow layer steering currents will take it where?

Central Cuba.

PSU e-WALL Steering Layers
How can 91L be tropical in 74 degree water?
Quoting PlazaRed:


EYES!!

Look back over this last 50 or so posts and there are 2 things you will see.

''1,'' nobody has had had any form of fight, or major disagreement and all as been in good fun as much as we can portray, the fact that there have been 2 significant storm invests in the North Atlantic in the months of March and April. all its implications will be a game for the Wrath's.

The second thing which we will call ''2,'' is that the people who know more than we can ever hope to grasp have been only too forthcoming with their knowledge, in order that we can grasp the enormity of the global weather situation. Thanks to all of them.
{Keeper, Sammy, Jeff's Doc,and all the others who know.}


Yes, I'm aware of the knowledge here, for sure....best place to be during the season....at the time I posted the question, blog was very slow...and I was studying the sattelite....., but never fear...I'm learning...always :) TY Plaza
Quoting snotly:
The researchers scoured data from passive microwave satellites from 1987 to 2008 to see how hurricanes behaved in the 24 hours before a storm underwent rapid intensification. Such a big-picture approach, in contrast to the case studies atmospheric scientists often perform, revealed clear patterns in storm dynamics. They found that, consistently, low-shear storm systems formed a symmetrical ring of thunderstorms around the center of the system about six hours before intensification began. As the system strengthened into a hurricane, the thunderstorms deepened and the ring became even more well-defined.

Link


Interesting. And needed. The more we know about these things and the quicker the better. :)
Here are the names for this season:

Quoting AllStar17:
Here are the names for this season:



Nice Diagram.

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Nice Diagram.

Thank you!
Quoting gulfbreeze:
How can 91L be tropical in 74 degree water?


It's not yet tropical, and it likely will only be able to acquire shallow warm-core charactistics and be subtropical, but not fully tropical. Subtropical cyclones do not rely fully on tropical processes and thus don't have to draw as much energy from the ocean to sustain themselves. Thus, the 26C rule is generally lowered to about 23C for subtropical cyclones.
Note the 5 new names as this years list lost 5 to retirement 6 years ago.

Dennis
Katrina
Rita
Stan
Wilma
91L Models begining to show up....

Quoting Patrap:
Note the 5 new names as this years list lost 5 to retirement 6 years ago


May those who died in those storms rest in peace.

Quoting Levi32:


It's not yet tropical, and it likely will only be able to acquire shallow warm-core charactistics and be subtropical, but not fully tropical. Subtropical cyclones do not rely fully on tropical processes and thus don't have to draw as much energy from the ocean to sustain themselves. Thus, the 26C rule is generally lowered to about 23C for subtropical cyclones.
Thanks
Not much help in Texas, just hot and dry. From Austin-San Antonio discussion:

Expect convection to lose its punch after sunset with loss of heating. Just slight chances for thunder will persist through the midnight hour before the boundary begins to lift northward away from US...taking focus with it. Some low stratus will develop over much of the area around and after midnight...helping to keep temperatures a good ten to fifteen degrees above normal overnight.


The rest of the forecast is much less exciting as ridging builds in and the cap strengthens. GFS brings in a weak wave early next week...but timing and strength are still very much in question so will favor ongoing forecast for continuity. The pattern of well above normal temperatures appears likely to continue well into next week.
Quoting beell:


More moisture, less windshear.


Thank You, Beell....I see..BTW..your blog is on my favorite blogs list...I read a lot..:)
It's rather impressive that the wind max associated with 91L is actually fairly close to the center, unlike most subtropical lows.

Quoting Levi32:


It's not yet tropical, and it likely will only be able to acquire shallow warm-core charactistics and be subtropical, but not fully tropical. Subtropical cyclones do not rely fully on tropical processes and thus don't have to draw as much energy from the ocean to sustain themselves. Thus, the 26C rule is generally lowered to about 23C for subtropical cyclones.


With all due respects.

If this little Dr. Jekyll fellow wanders over to the tepid gulf then it might grow into a bit of a Mr. Hyde.
Then again the strict 'administrators of sheer,' might just call the Deuce?
18z GFS and 18z UKMET both initialized 91L as shallow warm-core:



Quoting PlazaRed:


With all due respects.

If this little Dr. Jekyll fellow wanders over to the tepid gulf then it might grow into a bit of a Mr. Hyde.
Then again the strict 'administrators of sheer,' might just call the Deuce?


It's unlikely it would be able to combat the shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it were to get there.
Quoting Levi32:


It's unlikely it would be able to combat the shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it were to get there.


Thanks very much to Everybody for their comments and information imparted.

3am, in Europe and although all is very exciting, Hasta Manana. y Que Sera Sera, { What will be, will BE!}
Quoting Levi32:
It's rather impressive that the wind max associated with 91L is actually fairly close to the center, unlike most subtropical lows.



All what it needs now is a nice blow up of convection.
Quoting PlazaRed:


Thanks very much to Everybody for their comments and information imparted.

3am, in Europe and although all is very exciting, Hasta Manana. y Que Sera Sera, { What will be, will BE!}


Goodnight....mean morning, Plaza...sleep well...
Quoting Levi32:


It's unlikely it would be able to combat the shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it were to get there.
it will ramp up then ramp down towards sw then meander for a bit as areas of rain
And now here come the times of debating criteria for these kinds of systems. If we were doing this the simple way, it has a closed circulation over >25C water with gales on the north side, and therefore deserves a subtropical name. However, the NHC insists on making the naming criteria for subtropical cyclones very subjective.
574. beell
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Thank You, Beell....I see..BTW..your blog is on my favorite blogs list...I read a lot..:)


YW, EYES. There is a WUnderful world here to browse through. Always something to catch your eye/curiosity/imagination/anger/laughter/sorrow/et c/etc
And here is the NHC's definition of a subtropical cyclone:

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

The fact is that there are no fronts (if there is any frontal zone it is removed northeast of the center at this point), and it has a closed circulation with gale-force winds that are actually near the center, more organized than most subtropical entities.

So the question becomes, what is preventing its classification? Likely consistency and duration at this point, as the NHC likes to sit on these things for 12-24 hours before classifying them, and even then they sometimes don't seem to follow their own criteria, so we'll see.
Quoting Levi32:
And now here come the times of debating criteria for these kinds of systems. If we were doing this the simple way, it has a closed circulation over >25C water with gales on the north side, and therefore deserves a subtropical name. However, the NHC insists on making the naming criteria for subtropical cyclones very subjective.


Very objective observation.
Nice link of the system, if it comes through. Seems all of the sites are having a little trouble.

Just click the IR-NHC button on top to see the image.


Link
XX/INV/91L
MARK
23.69N/60.11W




POSS COC COLLAPSE
Quoting Grothar:


Very objective observation.


It is. It eliminates any toying with other subjective interpretations. If it's non-frontal, over tropically-warm water, has a closed circulation with gales, then it deserves a name based on the accepted criteria.
Finally! The first two storms of the season for us in south texas are finally visable on the Brownsville Nexrad this evening. Looks like Monterrey might get a little rain tonight but none for us. Glad I'm not flying tonight. Ice (cloud temps reported at -55C), hail (up to 2 inches) and wind shears are not a good mix with turbo-props. Here in McAllen we could use a little rain, though. Guess I picked the wrong year to put in new sod! HaHa!
REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
************************************************* *********
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/INV/91L
MARK
23.69N/60.11W




POSS COC COLLAPSE

Sad, that.
Embarrassing as well, I should imagine.
584. JLPR2
RAMSDIS has a floater on 91L

Link

I see it spinning, but not much in terms of convection.
Quoting iflyu2:
Finally! The first two storms of the season for us in south texas are finally visable on the Brownsville Nexrad this evening. Looks like Monterrey might get a little rain tonight but none for us. Glad I'm not flying tonight. Ice (cloud temps reported at -55C), hail (up to 2 inches) and wind shears are not a good mix with turbo-props. Here in McAllen we could use a little rain, though. Guess I picked the wrong year to put in new sod! HaHa!


That is good to see....here's wishing it will spread over a large area.....maybe it is a sign of more rain to come.....hopefully
Quoting JLPR2:
RAMSDIS has a floater on 91L

Link

I see it spinning, but not much in terms of convection.
if ya look ddc in image ya see two eyes and open mouth that looks to be sayin WTF this is april
Quoting Grothar:
Nice link of the system, if it comes through. Seems all of the sites are having a little trouble.

Just click the IR-NHC button on top to see the image.


Link


Grothar, that IS a good link....have saved..TY :)
Quoting pottery:

Sad, that.
Embarrassing as well, I should imagine.
if anything its a nice test run


earlier
590. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if ya look ddc in image ya see two eyes and open mouth that looks to be sayin WTF this is april


Haha, yeah, way too early, makes you wonder how the rest of the season is going to be...
But I believe I read somewhere that an active early season doesn't mean its going to be active during the reast of it. I think... XD
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if anything its a nice test run
I dont think the LLC is gone.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


That is good to see....here's wishing it will spread over a large area.....maybe it is a sign of more rain to come.....hopefully


Thanks Eyes! From your mouth to God's ears!
Quoting Levi32:


It is. It eliminates any toying with other subjective interpretations. If it's non-frontal, over tropically-warm water, has a closed circulation with gales, then it deserves a name based on the accepted criteria.


I believe with the extremely high wind shear, they might be holding off on naming it.
Quoting JLPR2:


Haha, yeah, way too early, makes you wonder how the rest of the season is going to be...
But I believe I read somewhere that an active early season doesn't mean its going to be active during the reast of it. I think... XD
very true we could see another invest or two maybe even a named storm then jun 1 will come along and we wont see nothing till august other than a few teasing invests and aoi's
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Grothar, that IS a good link....have saved..TY :)


If you are a good girl this year, I will show you the trick on how to post the images. It really is a good site. Right now it is not working properly. Seems as if many of the sites are not in good working order.
Quoting Grothar:


If you are a good girl this year, I will show you the trick on how to post the images. It really is a good site. Right now it is not working properly. Seems as if many of the sites are not in good working order.


Sures sounds nice to be called a girl again....:} You're so kind......
Quoting iflyu2:


Thanks Eyes! From your mouth to God's ears!
and so shall it be
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and so shall it be


There ya go....Keeper said so !! I'm just glad this last system was and still is north of me......right now anyway....
LLC collapsed?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if ya look ddc in image ya see two eyes and open mouth that looks to be sayin WTF this is april
Center is still chugging along the 23N line just passing 62W, just as tight and well defined as earlier. Seems to be heading more westish ATM, to early to tell however.
Quoting pottery:

Sad, that.
Embarrassing as well, I should imagine.


snork-giggle-snork
Big blob in the South.


Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Hey, that is a very famous painting by one of the most well-known Norwegian artists.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, that is a very famous painting by one of the most well-known Norwegian artists.


Just finshed my coco.

Its called the 'Scream.'

I think it got stolen for a while!
Collapse of convection, yes....
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Lowndes County in northeast Mississippi... this includes the city of Columbus...

* until 945 PM CDT

* at 844 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near Columbus moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Steens and Caledonia

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Tornado Warning means that a tornado is occurring or imminent. You should activate your tornado action plan and take protective action now.

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing Golf Ball size hail and destructive straight line winds.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 am CDT Thursday morning for southeast Arkansas and northeast Louisiana and northern Mississippi.


Quoting Grothar:
Big blob in the South.




2 counties above me...getting kinda...too close! Wish it were in Texas....
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Collapse of convection, yes....
Saw that coming earlier with the lower level outflow boundaries.
Howdy MH09, bout that time again. Nothing like a little non-event to get the brain cranking again.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Saw that coming earlier with the lower level outflow boundaries.
. It'll problay Re-fire tomorrow.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Howdy MH09, bout that time again. Nothing like a little non-event to get the brain cranking again.
so the center is still well defined.. Hmmm
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Howdy MH09, bout that time again. Nothing like a little non-event to get the brain cranking again.
What's up CycloneVoyage? My thoughts exactly, a small harmless system to keep us entertained during the off-season.

Hope everything's going well with you and yours.

Quoting sammywammybamy:
. It'll problay Re-fire tomorrow.
Yup, the diurnal maximum will help it re-fire convection in the morning, however, should it not organize tomorrow, tomorrow evening's diurnal minimum will do the same thing it's doing tonight.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's up CycloneVoyage? My thoughts exactly, a small harmless system to keep us entertained during the off-season.

Hope everything's going well with you and yours.

Yup, the diurnal maximum will help it re-fire convection in the morning, however, should it not organize tomorrow, tomorrow evening's diurnal minimum will do the same thing it's doing tonight.
do you guys think that 91L will ever be declared as a subtropical storm depression? In the next 24-48 hrs.
233

WHXX04 KWBC 202345

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM INVEST 91L



INITIAL TIME 18Z APR 20



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 23.0 60.8 305./ 8.9

6 23.2 61.2 305./ 3.9

12 23.4 61.4 300./ 2.6

18 23.8 61.8 321./ 5.5

24 24.9 61.7 6./10.7

30 26.0 61.4 14./10.9

36 26.6 61.5 353./ 6.1

42 27.0 61.4 5./ 4.2

48 26.8 61.5 198./ 2.0

54 26.2 61.4 170./ 5.7

60 25.7 61.5 194./ 5.7

66 25.1 62.0 220./ 7.1

72 24.4 62.8 231./ 9.9

78 23.7 63.7 231./10.9

84 22.9 64.9 235./13.6

90 22.2 65.9 236./11.7

96 21.9 66.9 252./10.1

102 21.6 67.8 252./ 8.5

108 21.3 68.8 256./ 9.2

114 21.3 69.6 265./ 8.3

120 21.5 70.1 298./ 5.0

126 21.7 70.6 297./ 4.6
XX/INV/91L
MARK
23.89N/60.43W
Time to turn on the Weather Radio again. :(
Quoting PlazaRed:


Just finshed my coco.

Its called the 'Scream.'

I think it got stolen for a while!


That is why he was screaming.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
do you guys think that 91L will ever be declared as a subtropical storm depression? In the next 24-48 hrs.
Yeah I think it'll become a subtropical storm (given it already has winds of 40mph according to the NCEP), probably on Friday.


incredible panoramic view of the supercell as it moved near the MSU campus

picture of a tornado that touched down today near Starkville, MS courtesy of Janna Billsby.. Her daughter shot this photo and son lives in Clinton, MS where the April 15 tornado hit. NOT a good week for her as a mother!
Latest GFDL



*REPOST*
Here are the names for the upcoming season:

Quoting AussieStorm:


incredible panoramic view of the supercell as it moved near the MSU campus


Yes, Starkville, Ms....no injuries, thankfully from that monster.
There is certainly model support for 91L, but im not convinced.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
do you guys think that 91L will ever be declared as a subtropical storm depression? In the next 24-48 hrs.


Given that the global models are in pretty much unanimous agreement that initial movement will be slow, the system will have decent time to spend near the subtropical ridge axis. The influx of warm moist air associated with this feature, along with the possibility of a binary interaction between the nearby upper low and the system itself, could allow for a brief window of opportunity for subtropical cyclogenesis.

All in all, I'd give it about a 20% chance, same as the NHC.
SAB:

20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L

Nothing from TAFB.
These regions will be under the gun for serious flooding soon...Some areas are flooded now....
Quoting hydrus:
These regions will be under the gun for serious flooding soon...Some areas are flooded now....

Is that TX getting rain?
639. JLPR2
Something's popping over there


Where's the map that showed the purple circle there?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is that TX getting rain?
There is a severe thunder warning there at this time along with a couple other cells, but that will not do much for the ongoing drought..Every little bit helps I suppose..Hello Aussie..
"Beware of the Blob"!
Hi all,

I just tried to view a wind shear map I always look at from the University of Wisconsin. They have changed the URL and I cannot find it. Anyone know the new URL?
Quoting Grothar:
Wuzup Gro...
leo did you google it, wind shear map university of wisconsin
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Gro...


No mucho. Just practicing my vocabulary for the season. How you doing with the storms your way?

Diurnal max-min
Multiple vortices
AOI
Hunker down
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
648. beell
From the "for what it's worth" department:

This is a quick and dirty tornado count based on web-published field work conducted by NWS Personnel for the April 16th Tornado Outbreak. These numbers will certainly change by the time all field surveys are completed. If there is no published report from an NWS Office, it is assumed that there were no tornados to report. I am sure there are a few tornadoes in very rural areas that may never be included in this count.

A look at the minor impacts caused by a change in NWS policy to cease attempts at filtering duplicate Local Storm Reports (LSR's) effective March 8th, 2011. Using total LSR's as a means to label storm events as "record breaking" may need a little tweaking.

Final storm reports will continue to carry the burden of proof for historical severe weather climatology. (I hope).

Rule-of-thumb prior to this change was to reduce the number of tornado LSR's by 10-15% to arrive at an approximate number of tornadoes.

To-date count stands at 61 confirmed tornadoes as linked below.
Current LSR's for tornadoes for this one day event total 137.

A reduction factor of approx. 45%. Quite a jump from 10-15% for this outbreak. A similar overcount error would probably apply to hail and wind LSR's also.

North Carolina
Newport-Moorehead City, NC NWS
9
Raleigh, NC NWS
26
Wilmington, NC NWS
11

Pennsylvania
State College, PA NWS
1

South Carolina
Charleston, SC NWS
1

Greenville-Spartanburg, SC NWS 1
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC NWS 2
3

Virginia
Blacksburg, VA NWS
3
Wakefield, VA NWS
8

Total: 61
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Quoting Xandra:

Why should he?

Ferguson and the site SPPI is well known for sherry picking and false data. Here you have some information about the non science nonsense site SPPI and Ferguson Link Link


Well, here's some more material he won't want to read, either:

U.S. CO2 levels saw large decline in 2009

"...Total U.S. anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions in 2009 were 5.8 percent below the 2008 total...

...The decline in total emissions - from 6,983 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2008 to 6,576 MMTCO2e in 2009 - was the largest since emissions have been tracked over the 1990-2009 time frame..."

Their data shows that:

1. U.S. CO2 emissions in 2009 were the lowest since 1995.

2. The trend in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions has been downward since 1999.

Yet the global temperatures are increasing rapidly.

Here's the report from the EIA (Energy Information Administration):

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2009
..anytime
Quoting leofarnsworth:
Hi all,

I just tried to view a wind shear map I always look at from the University of Wisconsin. They have changed the URL and I cannot find it. Anyone know the new URL?


If Heaven can wait, so can you LOL I will have it for you in a moment. It is now part of CMSSIS.

Here it is.

Link
Quoting hydrus:
There is a severe thunder warning there at this time along with a couple other cells, but that will not do much for the ongoing drought..Every little bit helps I suppose..Hello Aussie..

Hey Hydrus. Where are you from?
Quoting Grothar:


No mucho. Just practicing my vocabulary for the season. How you doing with the storms your way?

Diurnal max-min
Multiple vortices
AOI
Hunker down
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
It is pouring now with rumbles of thunder. Have had a lot of rain with the past two storms, but no wind damage. The mets say there is the potential for more serious weather events. The models seem to verify this prediction.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Hydrus. Where are you from?
Middle Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau. I have been here since 2007..I was born and raised in South Florida.
Quoting hydrus:
It is pouring now with rumbles of thunder. Have had a lot of rain with the past two storms, but no wind damage. The mets say there is the potential for more serious weather events. The models seem to verify this prediction.


Never ends for it, does it? We've been having great weather. No rain though.
Invest? That's actually pretty cool. Much cooler than the twelve 8th graders who showed up "under in influence" at 7:25 this morning in celebration of 4/20!
Quoting Grothar:


Never ends for it, does it? We've been having great weather. No rain though.
.I truly am ready for a shift in the pattern..We have had a lot of damage around here., and it has been happening here consistently for 3 years. Tennessee was ranked number one for tornado fatalities for ten years straight...I am not sure how the numbers will be now with all recent storms.
Quoting hydrus:
Middle Tennessee on the Cumberland Plateau. I have been here since 2007..I was born and raised in South Florida.


Aussie better not ask me where I am from. We could be here all night. LOL
Winter is not that far away for me, How do I know without looking at a calender?
Wind shear maps. 80Kts both east and west of Australian. During the middle of winter, I wouldn't be surprised to see 120kts.



Quoting Grothar:


Aussie better not ask me where I am from. We could be here all night. LOL

Where are you at now. lol, Better yet, I'll make a blog entry and Everyone can just write there WU screen name and location.
Quoting Grothar:


Aussie better not ask me where I am from. We could be here all night. LOL
I enjoyed posting your pre Big Bang place of residence...:)
Finally got a better view of the lastest image of the LLC in 91L, Looks to be more potent, but can't quite tell if its getting a bit elongated. Have to wait and see the next good image of it later. Still really nicely built storm for April.
My Forecast:
91L TC Formation %:
Tonight~ Less than 10%
Tomorrow~ 25%
Tomorrow Night~ 45%
Friday~ 65%
Friday Night~ 55%
Weekend~ Less than 10%

Strength:
Subtropical to Tropical Storm.
Duration of Status: 3/4 of a Day to A day and a half.

Alright, Night all. And good luck to you 91L, to survive the diurnal Minimum, and 50+ knots of wind shear. See you in the morning(Maybe).

But seriously ill be back in the morning, nite everyone.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Where are you at now. lol, Better yet, I'll make a blog entry and Everyone can just write there WU screen name and location.

Ok, my new blog is up.
Just go here
The surface winds west of the LLC are really racing off to the west, which is not a great environment for maintaining a tight circulation, but at the same time, it is moving west towards the divergence side of the upper low, evidenced by convection going off in its path. Thus, I wouldn't expect it to dissipate, but as happens with many of this type of subtropical cyclone, it may swap main centers a couple of times, forming or regenerating new ones.

While it would be best to wait until the visible imagery tomorrow morning at this point, 91L meets the NHC's criteria for naming, and has model support for further organization, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of a statement sometime tomorrow about upgrading it, assuming it continues to deepen.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Winter is not that far away for me, How do I know without looking at a calender?
Wind shear maps. 80Kts both east and west of Australian. During the middle of winter, I wouldn't be surprised to see 120kts.



You all down under get your share of rough weather. They also showed footage of the massive firestorm down there...What a terrible and deadly disaster that was.
Complete Update





Coordinates of 91L:
23N, 62.4W
From Satellite Image...
Quoting hydrus:
You all down under get your share of rough weather. They also showed footage of the massive firestorm down there...What a terrible and deadly disaster that was.

I'll find a famous Australian poem. It tells of life and weather of Australia.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Finally got a better view of the lastest image of the LLC in 91L, Looks to be more potent, but can't quite tell if its getting a bit elongated. Have to wait and see the next good image of it later. Still really nicely built storm for April.
My Forecast:
91L TC Formation %:
Tonight~ Less than 10%
Tomorrow~ 25%
Tomorrow Night~ 45%
Friday~ 65%
Friday Night~ 55%
Weekend~ Less than 10%

Strength:
Subtropical to Tropical Storm.
Duration of Status: 3/4 of a Day to A day and a half.

Alright, Night all. And good luck to you 91L, to survive the diurnal Minimum, and 50+ knots of wind shear. See you in the morning(Maybe).

But seriously ill be back in the morning, nite everyone.


Night Dean.
672. xcool
This situation is getting progressively worse for quite a few people...
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll find a famous Australian poem. It tells of life and weather of Australia.

My Country
by Dorothea McKellar
(1885-1968)

an iconic poem about Australia


The love of field and coppice,
Of green and shaded lanes,
Of ordered woods and gardens
Is running in your veins.
Strong love of grey-blue distance,
Brown streams and soft, dim skies -
I know but cannot share it,
My love is otherwise.

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.
I love her far horizons,
I love her jewel-sea,
Her beauty and her terror
The wide brown land for me!

The stark white ring-barked forests,
All tragic to the moon,
The sapphire-misted mountains,
The hot gold hush of noon,
Green tangle of the brushes
Where lithe lianas coil,
And orchids deck the tree-tops,
And ferns the warm dark soil.

Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When, sick at heart, around us
We see the cattle die
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the rainbow gold,
For flood and fire and famine
She pays us back threefold.
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.

An opal-hearted country,
A wilful, lavish land
All you who have not loved her,
You will not understand
Though earth holds many splendours,
Wherever I may die,
I know to what brown country
My homing thoughts will fly.
Quoting Levi32:
The surface winds west of the LLC are really racing off to the west, which is not a great environment for maintaining a tight circulation, but at the same time, it is moving west towards the divergence side of the upper low, evidenced by convection going off in its path. Thus, I wouldn't expect it to dissipate, but as happens with many of this type of subtropical cyclone, it may swap main centers a couple of times, forming or regenerating new ones.

While it would be best to wait until the visible imagery tomorrow morning at this point, 91L meets the NHC's criteria for naming, and has model support for further organization, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of a statement sometime tomorrow about upgrading it, assuming it continues to deepen.
Actually for a more define looks, yes, you would have to wait, but the circulation shows up on RGB satellite, on the noaa site.
Knowing the NHC, they would probably wait until 91L is at least in their 30% criteria to even think about classifying it.

Not so sure that will happen...

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Actually for a more define looks, yes, you would have to wait, but the circulation shows up on RGB satellite, on the noaa site.


Earlier today with that ASCAT pass it passed every requirement for an upgrade with that circulation center. The only debatable requirement is the shallow warm-core structure, which every model says it currently has, but one cannot prove that.
If you live in Birmingham, prepare to get you butt kicked by a nasty squall line...
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll find a famous Australian poem. It tells of life and weather of Australia.
When I get down there, I am going to visit all those cool asteroid and meteor craters you have..They are is excellent condition. Goss Bluff, wolf Creek and a bunch of others. There is one they say is a billion years old and a mile wide that can still be discerned very easily.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Where are you at now. lol, Better yet, I'll make a blog entry and Everyone can just write there WU screen name and location.


Ft. Lauderdale. (details to follow)
91L does not deserve to be classified as a subtropical cyclone at the moment. It is lacking in convective organization. Simply because it has a closed surface circulation with convection around its vicinity does not mean it should be classified. I'm sure the NHC is waiting for more convective organization before they think about classifying it.
Quoting Levi32:


Earlier today with that ASCAT pass it passed every requirement for an upgrade with that circulation center.
Interesting, It would make sense to, but they have been very picky about what and what not they name, but if it sustains and remains stable with all the reguirements. But because of it being April, and no threat to land, they wont name it unless its necessary.
Quoting hydrus:
I enjoyed posting your pre Big Bang place of residence...:)


I know you did, and I enjoyed reading it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll find a famous Australian poem. It tells of life and weather of Australia.
I dig the poem...Thank you for posting it.
Quoting Grothar:


I know you did, and I enjoyed reading it.
You are the only man infinity actually fears....he he
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Interesting, It would make sense to, but they have been very picky about what and what not they name, but if it sustains and remains stable with all the reguirements. But because of it being April, and no threat to land, they wont name it unless its necessary.
Sorry, REQUIREMENTS misspelled it, tired. Nite All...
Quoting hydrus:
When I get down there, I am going to visit all those cool asteroid and meteor craters you have..They are is excellent condition. Goss Bluff, wolf Creek and a bunch of others. There is one they say is a billion years old and a mile wide that can still be discerned very easily.

you mean this one?




Crater map
Quoting Drakoen:
91L does not deserve to be classified as a subtropical cyclone at the moment. It is lacking in convective organization. Simply because it has a closed surface circulation with convection around its vicinity does not mean it should be classified. I'm sure the NHC is waiting for more convective organization before they think about classifying it.


I thin that is very true. I just noticed the CIMSS just dropped it as an invest. It could be temporary while they are updating. Just thought it was funny that they had it up and now it is gone.






AMSU pass:


Quoting Drakoen:
91L does not deserve to be classified as a subtropical cyclone at the moment. It is lacking in convective organization. Simply because it has a closed surface circulation with convection around its vicinity does not mean it should be classified. I'm sure the NHC is waiting for more convective organization before they think about classifying it.


I could understand that if it was in their definition of a subtropical cyclone, which it is not. Everything about classifying tropical systems is about defined criteria.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AMSU pass:




Was just about to post that lol. Interesting warmth in the upper levels.
Here is the NHC's current definition. I don't know if I'm necessarily comfortable with these criteria, but using this as a guideline based on today's data, 91L is a subtropical cyclone.

"A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection."
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AMSU pass:




That is interesting, as although we wouldn't expect a significant warm-core signature with such a weak system, it might offer contradicting evidence against the models which say it is already warm-core.
Quoting Levi32:


That is interesting, as although we wouldn't expect a significant warm-core signature with such a weak system, it might offer contradicting evidence against the models which say it is already warm-core.


That is because convective organization is implied and is subjective to the forecaster since each system is unique. Stating it would not clear up the ambiguity of convective organization.
Quoting hydrus:
You are the only man infinity actually fears....he he



He'll never catch me. That is why I am the only one on the blog who is really worried about Global warming predictions for 2200. I will be the only one on the blog still around.
Quoting Drakoen:




That is because convective organization is implied and is subjective to the forecaster since each system is unique. Stating it would not clear up the ambiguity of convective organization.


Then why do they state it in the definition of a tropical cyclone, but not in the definition of a subtropical one. By definition, subtropical cyclones typically have a very disorganized convective pattern.

Quoting Drakoen:


Was just about to post that lol. Interesting warmth in the upper levels.


With yourself and Levi in here, I figured someone would. lol 

91L has a decent amount of dry air worked into portions of its circulation. If it can shake that before Friday and develop some convection in the area, then there's a chance that this could become classified. 

Quoting Levi32:


Then why do they state it in the definition of a tropical cyclone, but not in the definition of a subtropical one. By definition, subtropical cyclones typically have a very disorganized convective pattern.


Read the first line of the definition you posted in your post 695. And you just contradicted yourself too.
Quoting AussieStorm:

you mean this one?




Crater map
Yes. That one..... And this beauty..
703. 7544
gfdl and hwrf take 91l to over 50k at the end of the run hi EVRYONE AND XCOOL
Quoting Drakoen:


Read the first line of the definition you posted in your post 695. And you just contradicted yourself too.


Well the statement "characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones" can be interpreted different ways. Most of the time that seems to mean partially warm-core. Perhaps that is where the subjectivity comes in, but it would be better to have a more defined line for classifying these things, as it only gets more confusing due to the huge variety of subtropical entities that we can have.

And it was less of a contradiction and more of me answering my own question.

Spider Crater..
Quoting hcubed:


Well, here's some more material he won't want to read, either:

U.S. CO2 levels saw large decline in 2009

"...Total U.S. anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions in 2009 were 5.8 percent below the 2008 total...

...The decline in total emissions - from 6,983 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2008 to 6,576 MMTCO2e in 2009 - was the largest since emissions have been tracked over the 1990-2009 time frame..."

Their data shows that:

1. U.S. CO2 emissions in 2009 were the lowest since 1995.

2. The trend in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions has been downward since 1999.

Yet the global temperatures are increasing rapidly.

Here's the report from the EIA (Energy Information Administration):

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2009


------------------------------------------------- ----

I'm not sure why you think Nea wouldn't want to read this. I'm pretty sure we can all agree that a drop in U.S. greenhouse gas output is a good thing.

Maybe I'm misreading your post, but you seem to be suggesting that a drop in U.S. emissions should lead to an immediate drop in global temperatures. But what about emissions from the rest of the world? Globally, emissions have continued to rise since 1999.




Clike here to see a graph showing that annual per-capita CO2 emissions continue to rise and, since we have more "capitas" now than we did in 1999, I think that also suggests more CO2 per year globally.

Still, it was news to me that U.S. emissions were down and I think it's good news even if...

"...the decrease in U.S. CO2 emissions in 2009 resulted primarily from three factors: an economy in recession, a particularly hard-hit energy-intensive industries sector, and a large drop in the price of natural gas that caused fuel switching away from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector."
The circulation of 91L looks well-defined here (23 N, 62.5 W).  Needs more convection.


Quoting Levi32:


Well the statement "characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones" can be interpreted different ways. Most of the time that seems to mean partially warm-core.

And it was less of a contradiction and more of me answering my own question.



And is not limited to just partially warm core.

That was an absolute contradiction compared to the official definition you posted which you thought had no implication contrasted to this in one of your posts:"By definition, subtropical cyclones typically have a very disorganized convective pattern."
Quoting Drakoen:


And is not limited to just partially warm core.

That was an absolute contradiction compared to the official definition you posted which you thought had no implication contrasted to this in one of your posts:"By definition, subtropical cyclones typically have a very disorganized convective pattern."


Which does not necessarily imply that there are therefore no unsaid requirements for the level of organization. That isn't a contradiction.
FWIW, the 00z NAM does not raise 91L's core temps above 15C until 2pm Friday. 

Quoting Grothar:



He'll never catch me. That is why I am the only one on the blog who is really worried about Global warming predictions for 2200. I will be the only one on the blog still around.
True...You and FloodMan will be blogging from Mars as you sip wine and he twists ganj....
I have just always thought the system of classification could use more abrupt guidelines. The confusion has only become worse over the last several years with the NHC's inconsistency in classifications using their criteria. Hopefully someday a better system will be devised.

I'm out, later all.
Quoting Levi32:


Which does not necessarily imply that there are therefore no unsaid requirements for the level of organization. That isn't a contradiction.


Not to interject into a private dialogue, but isn't the warming in a subtropical system suppose to occur in the troposphere?
Quoting Levi32:


Which does not necessarily imply that there are therefore no unsaid requirements for the level of organization. That isn't a contradiction.


But you said that there isn't because you said that here is not statement on the level of organization lol. What I just proved to you was that there was an implication. Please stop trying to twist things with doublespeak of perhaps your weakest argument on here yet.

Not that you haven't made strong ones. Of course. lol.
Wouldn't the fact that the wind max is relatively close to the center and warmth in the upper levels support a fully tropical classification?
718. xcool


feed from ITCZ
very interesting
posts 718 and 719...
the amount of available moisture in the ITCZ is kind of worrying....
That area off Africa is not supposed to be there, for one thing.
Quoting pottery:
posts 718 and 719...
the amount of available moisture in the ITCZ is kind of worrying....
That area off Africa is not supposed to be there, for one thing.
Yes..There have been impressive areas of convection moving through the Gulf of Guinea. If that were to continue into the hurricane season, the Antilles and the Caribbean could see a lot of of storms...jmo..:)
20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L
20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L
Canada~ Fire crews at Wood Buffalo National Park were surprised to see an 8,000-hectare man-made fire so early this spring at the northern Alberta park. The grass fire, located about 40 kilometres west of Fort Chipewyan, Alta., near Hilda Lake, has been burning since Saturday — a month earlier than the park's previous record for spring fires, fire management officer Jean Morin said. "This time of year, we don't have fire crews and water is not available because everything is frozen," Morin said Wednesday. Morin, who flew over the fire zone on Wednesday afternoon, said he believes it will grow by an additional 5,000 hectares due to strong winds. "We saw a mix of burned area and snow and ice, which was quite interesting," he said. "When there wasn't any snow or a thick patch of willows, the fire was free-burning at a fairly fast rate." Morin said the blaze currently does not pose any threat to people or property, so the only thing fire crews can do is monitor it by helicopter. Eventually, the fire will likely be contained by rivers and deltas in the area, he added. Morin said the grass fire is believed to have started by somebody who did not properly extinguish a campfire. It started in an area of the park that is often used for human activities such as hunting, he said. "We certainly would warn people that are doing any kind of activity in the wilderness these days to make sure their fires are well extinguished because we are fairly limited with suppression capability," he said.
Quoting Grothar:


Not to interject into a private dialogue, but isn't the warming in a subtropical system suppose to occur in the troposphere?


Yes. If you are referring to the AMSU diagram, that entire crossection is the troposphere. However, the warming we want to see would be in the more shallow layers, not way up at 100mb in this case.
Quoting Drakoen:


But you said that there isn't because you said that here is not statement on the level of organization lol. What I just proved to you was that there was an implication. Please stop trying to twist things with doublespeak of perhaps your weakest argument on here yet.

Not that you haven't made strong ones. Of course. lol.


I said there aren't any in the written criteria....I wish the NHC would rid themselves of the hidden subjective criteria that are not in the written definitions. It is obvious that they exist, because the NHC often takes actions or inactions that are inconsistent with the official writing. I think it is you who are now twisting.
Massive outflow boundaries over Texas....Link
Quoting Levi32:


I said there aren't any in the written criteria....I wish the NHC would rid themselves of the hidden subjective criteria that are not in the written definitions. It is obvious that they exist, because the NHC often takes actions or inactions that are inconsistent with the official writing. I think it is you who are now twisting.


I'm not the only one who can see you are wrong. Doesn't take a degree in Meteorology or English to see that. I rest my case.
we went to ships island in mississippi a couple of weeks ago. the park ranger said he had been wearing shorts since february. first invest april 20th? warm waters this year.
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm not the only one who can see you are wrong. Doesn't take a degree in Meteorology or English to see that.


I don't know who in here disagrees with me or not, but that certainly doesn't strengthen your argument in any way, does it?

I know you like the status quo. I don't like some aspects of it. There's nothing wrong with that.
Quoting hcubed:


Well, here's some more material he won't want to read, either:

U.S. CO2 levels saw large decline in 2009

"...Total U.S. anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions in 2009 were 5.8 percent below the 2008 total...

...The decline in total emissions - from 6,983 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2008 to 6,576 MMTCO2e in 2009 - was the largest since emissions have been tracked over the 1990-2009 time frame..."

Their data shows that:

1. U.S. CO2 emissions in 2009 were the lowest since 1995.

2. The trend in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions has been downward since 1999.

Yet the global temperatures are increasing rapidly.

Here's the report from the EIA (Energy Information Administration):

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2009


Three things are TERRIBLY wrong with your argument here:

1. Why would you correlate us co2 with global temperatures, you should be comparing global co2 output.

2. It's climate change (30 yr averages), not yearly change. Get a clue.

3. Co2 is not the only thing which governs our global temperatures. And is FAR FROM IT.



You deniers have been complaining on this entry that Nea won't read your posts. Well I just did, and I can see exactly why he doesn't. Your posts are littered with logical fallacies. Most feeble argument I've ever seen
000
AXNT20 KNHC 202350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 20 2011

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE W ATLC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N61W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 26N56W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS
AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF THE LOW TO GATHER ANY CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N66W
WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
first invest april 20th? warm waters this year.


Second, actually. We briefly had 90L near the Canary Islands last month.
Circulation center still naked with the surrounding convection obviously sheared. The upper low is lurking just off to the northwest, indicating the potential for conditions over the surface center to improve tomorrow, but for now the system remains disorganized overall.

In other news, this whole Arlene in April possibility is pretty cool. Id love to see it get named, but I believe its got a bit of developing to do.

Quoting Levi32:
The upper low is lurking just off to the northwest, indicating the potential for conditions over the surface center to improve tomorrow
The global models certainly support that theory.
Quoting TomTaylor:
In other news, this whole Arlene in April possibility is pretty cool. Id love to see it get named, but I believe its got a bit of developing to do.


Ya it does, but given the time of year, how much development will be enough to get the NHC to name it is anybody's guess, so we'll see.
Dang, NRL site is still down :(
Quoting TomTaylor:
Dang, NRL site is still down :(


Now for some days down:

NRL Monterey web pages and data are currently inaccessible due to a technical outage. This home page will be update as information becomes available.
THE 2011 LIST OF ATLANTIC STORM NAMES (

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don (replaces Dennis)
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia (replaces Katrina)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (replaces Rita)
Sean (replaces Stan)
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (replaces Wilma)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Now for some days down:

NRL Monterey web pages and data are currently inaccessible due to a technical outage. This home page will be update as information becomes available.

Yea these last few days have kinda pissed me off because there have been some extraordinary thunderstorms coming off Africa and I usually track thunderstorms coming off Africa from the NEXSAT part of the website dice they offer hourly imagery.

Quoting Levi32:


Ya it does, but given the time of year, how much development will be enough to get the NHC to name it is anybody's guess, so we'll see.
Yea I hear ya. I think the NHC will be rather hesitant in naming this invest since its not threatening anything significant and doesn't look too organized convectively.
745. JRRP
convection is increasing near the east side
Link

have a nice day
Interesting. The 0z CMC is much less aggressive, and actually on the weaker side of the model spread now.
The Foreca's mobile products are showing the strongest 91L's winds are near 27N60W,and are in 35-40 mph range.What are you thinking about it?
91 Invest!!!
The Foreca's mobile products are showing the strongest 91L's winds are near 27N60W,and are in 35-40 mph range.What are you thinking about it?
751. xcool
;)))
91L may pose a problem for us here in the northern Caribbean

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
91L may pose a problem for us here in the northern Caribbean
Uh... I thought you were in the western Caribbean?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Uh... I thought you were in the western Caribbean?

yes but it is also the most northerly part of the caribbean
I'm not buying the shear maps saying that there's 60-70 knots of shear over the center of 91L. It certainly doesn't look like it when you stare at the convective pattern which is now reorganizing, and satellite-estimated winds between 300mb and 100mb are only 20-30 knots, with the surface system moving northwest at 10 knots. That's only 25-40 knots of vertical shear between those two layers. This makes much more sense based on how the system looks on satellite loops right now.
91L is organizing, albeit slowly:



Convection is beginning to wrap closer to the center (though there's still work to be done). Additionally, animation of shortwave infrared imagery shows that the western flank of the circulation, which, as Levi pointed out hours ago, was displaying a sharp and overt easterly surface wind regime. This is no longer the case, as northerly winds are beginning to take over.

Lastly, water vapor animations show that the upper low's influence is considerably lessening as it seems to be in closer proximity to 91L now.

It has a better shot at genesis today.
"yes Virginia, there IS a 91L"

please oh please oh PLEASE let it bring us some rain in North Florida.

Arlene is a nice southern name. Kinda like a real sweet hairdresser, with long fingernails, chewing gum.


G'morning dayshift- loving the new paint-by-number graphics on SPC. Real good for us older folks that can't see lines any more. We got pretty pastels of green and yellow; what other colors will they use? Pink? Lavender? Chartruse? Robin's-egg blue?
Quoting hcubed:


Well, here's some more material he won't want to read, either:

U.S. CO2 levels saw large decline in 2009

"...Total U.S. anthropogenic (human-caused) greenhouse gas emissions in 2009 were 5.8 percent below the 2008 total...

...The decline in total emissions - from 6,983 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2008 to 6,576 MMTCO2e in 2009 - was the largest since emissions have been tracked over the 1990-2009 time frame..."

Their data shows that:

1. U.S. CO2 emissions in 2009 were the lowest since 1995.

2. The trend in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions has been downward since 1999.

Yet the global temperatures are increasing rapidly.

Here's the report from the EIA (Energy Information Administration):

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2009

Oh, I'll read almost anything--so long as it's based on scientific facts and logic, and not, say, desperate denialistic dreams of some fantasy fossil fuel future. ;-)

Let's assume the EIA CO2 numbers are correct (though the EIA's mission is to promote increases in domestic energy production--mainly via coal--so the results should be questioned, as always):

--That would be good news; every single ton of CO2 kept out of the environment delays any "tipping point", so that would be welcome;

--It would show that knowledge and regulation, along with a raise in gasoline prices and a slump in the national economy, is helping limit CO2 a bit;

--The United States is no longer the leader in overall CO2 production; that goes to China. However, on a per capita basis, the U.S. is still the Big Hog; we emit a little over 19 tons each per year, while the Chinese emit under five tons per year. (And by comparison, India's per capita CO2 tonnage is 1.31.)

--Overall, global CO2 is still rising, and even were our 5.6% national drop to spread to every country, that's nowhere nearly enough.

--As Toma Taylor noted, it's global warming; we're all in this together.
Quoting KoritheMan:
91L is organizing, albeit slowly:



Convection is beginning to wrap closer to the center (though there's still work to be done). Additionally, animation of shortwave infrared imagery shows that the western flank of the circulation, which, as Levi pointed out hours ago, was displaying a sharp and overt easterly surface wind regime. This is no longer the case, as northerly winds are beginning to take over.

Lastly, water vapor animations show that the upper low's influence is considerably lessening as it seems to be in closer proximity to 91L now.

It has a better shot at genesis today.
. Is it heading w or wnw?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
. Is it heading w or wnw?


NNWNS, but I saw a jog to the east, halfway thru frame three.

(j/k)

hi sammy- good to see ya. welcome back. :)
united nations is trying to raise millions to buy japan a dome to put over the fuji. mess. bloomberg says it should last 100 yrs. lesson learned. as for the sheer maps they might not be updated as much in the past. govt is bankrupt
Quoting islander101010:
united nations is trying to raise millions to buy japan a dome to put over the fuji. mess. bloomberg says it should last 100 yrs. lesson learned. in time of tragedy only trust yourself.


They should check EBay first. Amazing what they sell on that site.
Quoting aquak9:


NNWNS, but I saw a jog to the east, halfway thru frame three.

(j/k)

hi sammy- good to see ya. welcome back. :)
Hey ;) looks like 91L is organizing..... Is it heading west?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
91L may pose a problem for us here in the northern Caribbean
How could it pose a problem even if it were to come right on top of us since we so desperately need rain ? Yes Kori, we are in the very NW corner of the Caribbean and I really doubt it would make it here.
ATCF update:

AL 91 2011042106 BEST 0 233N 625W 35 1010 LO
Quoting DestinJeff:


sorry to ask, but is that 1010 a weakening or stregthening from last update?


Constant, here is all data to date:

AL 91 2011041918 BEST 0 214N 576W 25 1012
AL 91 2011042000 BEST 0 221N 581W 30 1011
AL 91 2011042006 BEST 0 226N 589W 30 1011
AL 91 2011042012 BEST 0 228N 598W 35 1011
AL 91 2011042018 BEST 0 232N 608W 35 1010
AL 91 2011042100 BEST 0 233N 616W 35 1010
AL 91 2011042106 BEST 0 233N 625W 35 1010
Now 91L is heading due west to warmer waters,is also closer to upper low.I'm increasing the chances for it to 35%
Now 91L is heading due west to warmer waters,is also closer to upper low.I'm increasing the chances for it to 35%
Are there any models runs for invest 91L? What is the projected timeframe for bringing rain the the SE CONUS?
Good Morning...



Should be interesting to say the least.
... Record high minimum temperature set at Tampa International
Airport yesterday...

The low temperature only dropped to 74 degrees at Tampa
International Airport yesterday... April 20. This broke the previous
record high minimum temperature of 73 degrees set in 1920.

Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...



Should be interesting to say the least.

good morning
Miami NWS Discussion

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE PICTURE NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE (BEING MONITORED BY NHC FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT/20 PERCENT CHANCE) SOME 400 MI NE OF PUERTO RICO IS
SHOWN BY THE GFS/ECMWF TO EVENTUALLY MOVE S-SW WHILE OPENING UP
INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH. GFS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER AND
DELAYS THE BETTER MOISTURE UNTIL WED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
TUESDAY. SO KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS...REFLECTING THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BY TUE
AND CONTINUING WED...BUT KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS
THIS IS FAR OUT IN TIME. HOWEVER...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE CURRENT ECMWF DEPICTS A
WET DAY ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST NEXT TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH.
778. IKE

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
How could it pose a problem even if it were to come right on top of us since we so desperately need rain ? Yes Kori, we are in the very NW corner of the Caribbean and I really doubt it would make it here.


Morning stormwatcher & everyone else, we sure need rain here, so dry, also notice how low the tide is here.
780. IKE
Memo to NHC: Please move floater on 91L west and north slightly.

Thanks.

$$
IMO, 91L looks better than some classified systems we had in previous years!
Rain for SE TX and Flooding for NW ARK as a staggering 11" is being predicted by the HPC Folks.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
783. MahFL
The yellow circle of doom !.....lol.
91L is still weak but interesting to watch. Like I have been saying this moisture will eventually move into FL sometime early next week.
The LLC is getting wrapped, be interesting to see if it can stay that way, and finally fully wrap around. Upping my % today from 35% to 45%, Tomorrow %: 70%
Quoting MahFL:
The yellow circle of doom !.....lol.


That has not been updated since yesterday

I Would give it a 40% Chance of development now.
Quoting stormpetrol:
IMO, 91L looks better than some classified systems we had in previous years!


It looks well organised, but it's still cold cored.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The LLC is getting wrapped, be interesting to see if it can stay that way, and finally fully wrap around. Upping my % today from 35% to 45%, Tomorrow %: 70%


I like the aggressiveness!
Latest sat loops show that Circulation pulling moisture, and trying to start get banding going on the south side, still too dry for it to get all the dry air out of the core.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Models take it into the extreme south bahamas/ north haiti and then kick it Wnw... in the direction of Florida and the gulf... intresting...
Quoting WarEagle8:
Are there any models runs for invest 91L? What is the projected timeframe for bringing rain the the SE CONUS?


Tue-Thurs "Florida"

Thurs+ "Gulf"
Quoting RastaSteve:


I like the aggressiveness!
Well, im just playing my cards as they work out, if it becomes disorganized again, im more than welcome to lower it again.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Tue-Thurs "Florida"

Thurs+ "Gulf"


This trough is the key as it may not make it into the gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/06/fp0_180.shtml
Quoting RastaSteve:


This trough is the key as it may not make it into the gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/06/fp0_180.shtml


But it is bringing rain to florida right?
Quoting RastaSteve:
Rain for SE TX and Flooding for NW ARK as a staggering 11" is being predicted by the HPC Folks.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif


If they could shift that entire line about 300 miles to the south, I would be estatic.
XX/INV/91L
MARK
24.93N/63.16W
Quoting sammywammybamy:


But it is bringing rain to florida right?


Yeah, it looks like it will move over FL then get shunted NE if the Euro and GFS are to be believed. However the CMC has a different scenario and actually restrengthens it near SE by day 10. Look below for the Long Range Canadian Model (CMC). Very interesting scanario there which no one on here has mentioned!

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel. htm
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Ill give it a 40-50% Chance for attaining STS/TS Status...

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Ill give it a 40-50% Chance for attaining STS/TS Status...



IMO I believe this should STS Arlene right now. Very impressive low level circulation.
115

WHXX01 KWBC 211112

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1112 UTC THU APR 21 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110421 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110421 0600 110421 1800 110422 0600 110422 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 23.3N 62.5W 23.7N 64.1W 23.7N 64.9W 23.2N 65.3W

BAMD 23.3N 62.5W 25.5N 58.5W 28.3N 55.9W 31.1N 54.0W

BAMM 23.3N 62.5W 24.6N 62.5W 25.9N 62.2W 26.6N 61.8W

LBAR 23.3N 62.5W 24.2N 61.9W 25.2N 61.1W 26.1N 59.9W

SHIP 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS 28KTS

DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110423 0600 110424 0600 110425 0600 110426 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.1N 65.6W 20.5N 68.1W 19.6N 71.9W 20.0N 76.1W

BAMD 33.6N 50.7W 39.3N 35.8W 44.8N 22.1W 45.5N 12.2W

BAMM 26.1N 61.5W 23.5N 62.9W 21.7N 65.0W 21.2N 66.5W

LBAR 26.9N 58.6W 27.3N 55.2W 26.4N 52.3W 26.2N 50.4W

SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 62.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 23.2N LONM12 = 60.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 22.6N LONM24 = 58.9W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting RastaSteve:


IMO I believe this should STS Arlene right now. Very impressive low level circulation.


Im waiting for the next Special Tropical weather statement/outlook.
798.

Nobody has mentioned it because its 10 days out, and is just one model.
Quoting jeffs713:
798.

Nobody has mentioned it because its 10 days out, and is just one model.


Is the fire still near you house/ranch?
And for the love of all that is (un)holy... PLEASE stop with the wishcasting! The "thing" doesn't have quite a few of the qualifications for a TS or STS. (no CDO, it has an extremely exposed LLC, no 40mph+ winds, and issues with thunderstorm persistence).

Wishing a storm does not make a storm. Its not worthy of naming by any means.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Is the fire still near you house/ranch?

Nope. I saw some smoke nearby yesterday, but I think it was a car fire, rather than a grass/brush fire. I'm in the middle of a subdivision, so I'm not THAT worried, but still...

(and thank you for asking!)
807. flsky
Horrifying new video of the tsunami.
Link


91L has become much more organized since yesterday.It is possible that the NHC will classify this, but due to the nature of the NHC, do not expect a classification any time soon.

Computer models predict that the storm will move wsw then a turn w to eventually a wnw heading toward Florida.

Best Case Senerio :

91L Disapates into a weak low pressure and moves over florida slowly droping 4 inches of rain (6+ in some spots). Then heads into the gulf and provides moisture to the north gulf coast.
Quoting RastaSteve:


This trough is the key as it may not make it into the gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/06/fp0_180.shtml


I don't see a trough digging into the gulf anytime soon as strong as high pressure has been holding.
Quoting jeffs713:

Nope. I saw some smoke nearby yesterday, but I think it was a car fire, rather than a grass/brush fire. I'm in the middle of a subdivision, so I'm not THAT worried, but still...

(and thank you for asking!)


Wish i could "gift you" a slow moving Tropical depression to drop many inches of rain on the fire.
Quoting RastaSteve:
91L is still weak but interesting to watch. Like I have been saying this moisture will eventually move into FL sometime early next week.


Quoting RastaSteve:
Rain for SE TX and Flooding for NW ARK as a staggering 11" is being predicted by the HPC Folks.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif


Those numbers look overdone to me.
91L is a bit better organized this morning with its convection
Good Morning/Evening

Nice big draw lines to the south of the disturbance.

Something is bringing rain to Florida. The forecast only said 10% chance but there were thick clouds all afternoon and it rained everywhere. Some hail and new fires from the lightning.

Yes I know 10% is still a chance, but the forecast is usually much closer than that.
Although thunderstorm activity has increased near the circulation the center, the circulation looks somewhat elongated SW-NE as the convection may be trying to pull the circulation closer. Overall, looks better than yesterday though.

If you're looking for links to track 91L, you can check out this site.
21/1145 UTC 23.4N 62.9W TOO WEAK 91L
21/0515 UTC 23.1N 62.5W TOO WEAK 91L
20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L
20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L

Quoting Skyepony:
21/1145 UTC 23.4N 62.9W TOO WEAK 91L
21/0515 UTC 23.1N 62.5W TOO WEAK 91L
20/2345 UTC 23.2N 62.0W TOO WEAK 91L
20/1745 UTC 23.0N 60.8W ST1.5 91L



How is it too weak? it looks better than yesterday.
818. IKE

Quoting sammywammybamy:


How is it too weak? it looks better than yesterday.
Agree...it does look better than yesterday.
819. P451
GFS and CMC both showing shallow symmetric warm core for the disturbance.



Quoting sammywammybamy:


How is it too weak? it looks better than yesterday.


Look =| strength.
Quoting jeffs713:


Look =| strength.


It has more convection around the center, and the circulation is not as naked as it was yesterday... it should be stronger than what it was yesterday.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


It has more convection around the center, and the circulation is not as naked as it was yesterday... it should be stronger than what it was yesterday.

While I agree that it *looks* stronger, I don't think it has consolidated enough to be named as a TS or an STS.
Quoting jeffs713:

While I agree that it *looks* stronger, I don't think it has consolidated enough to be named as a TS or an STS.


Good point... but it CAN become an STS/TS

It still looks really good for an invest in April.

Just a little jug to the north and the wind shear will drop significantly witch i see the system trying to do right now
Anyone have any idea what kind of time we'll see the TWO from NHC?
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anyone have any idea what kind of time we'll see the TWO from NHC?


This is a good question anyone wanna answer?

Quoting sammywammybamy:


Good point... but it CAN become an STS/TS

It still looks really good for an invest in April.


Oh, it is definitely impressive for an April invest. That said, I don't think its worthy of naming, and it has an uphill battle to get named.

IMO, ANY invest has a potential to be named - most just don't make it.
828. P451
6hr WV

Quoting Jedkins01:


Those numbers look overdone to me.



Almost half of it is from day 4-5, which IMO is still low confidence; however many forcasters are actually saying the models are under forcasting precip amounts for days 1-3


days 4-5



days 1-3


Complete Update





Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Anyone have any idea what kind of time we'll see the TWO from NHC?
around 2 pm to 4 pm 24 hrs after first special tropical statement unless significant dev occurs in which case normal issue time will be used
12Z update, down 1mb


AL 91 2011042112 BEST 0 236N 629W 35 1009 LO
The pressure's down another notch; winds are still at 35 knots:

AL, 91, 2011042112, , BEST, 0, 236N, 629W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 105, 1013, 150, 105, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
Good morning, I cannot believe we are already watching an invest.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N62W. ONE SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 22N67W 23N72W 27N73W.
A SECOND SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 20N54W 23N57W 23N61W. EACH SHEAR AXIS IS A BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES WIND SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT ON THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF IT FROM WIND SPEEDS THAT ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 48W AND THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE BAHAMAS...

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

Loop
Quoting ILwthrfan:



Almost half of it is from day 4-5, which IMO is still low confidence; however many forcasters are actually saying the models are under forcasting precip amounts for days 1-3


days 4-5



days 1-3


note day 4-5 rain from 91l is approaching florida
91L looking better this morning convection-wise. The circulation also has tucked itself underneath the convection so we'll so how things go. IMO, for the next TWO, chances should get bumped up to 40%.

It's April and were invest watching, crazy year in store for us
Quoting Drakoen:
91L is a bit better organized this morning with its convection
getting that arc look to it slowly steady as she goes
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
91L looking better this morning convection-wise. The circulation also has tucked itself underneath the convection so we'll so how things go. IMO, for the next TWO, chances should get bumped up to 40%.

looks Really good... Looks like a TS/STS
Lady on local news station in Houston was saying water temps where 91L are way too cold for development, and I'm like ok lady, whatever, how the hell has it made it to invest status then? even I know water temps are in the upper 70s to 80 out there. And if atmoshpheric conditions are decent things can develop under 80 degree water.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
91L looking better this morning convection-wise. The circulation also has tucked itself underneath the convection so we'll so how things go. IMO, for the next TWO, chances should get bumped up to 40%.

in step process will be used in the process we go to orange then red then T.C.F.A 01L DEPRESSION then t.s and finally hurr. if we even make it that far we will see
12Z update for BAMs


EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE

Quoting sammywammybamy:
note day 4-5 rain from 91l is approaching florida


Yes Florida needs its moisture very much, hopefully she stays disorganized enough not to cause any problems. Looks like widespread 1-3 inches of rain is certainly with in the rhelm of possibility next week.

Now we just need to get some moisture over Texas. This Texas situation is extreme and getting worse. By the end of the summer it could go into the record books as one of the worst.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lady on local news station in Houston was saying water temps where 91L are way too cold for development, and I'm like ok lady, whatever, how the hell has it made it to invest status then? even I know water temps are in the upper 70s to 80 out there. And if atmoshpheric conditions are decent things can develop under 80 degree water.
Water temps are decent enough for subtropical formation. A transition to purely tropical is very unlikely.
848. 7544
morning all looks like 91l is still holding on also down 1 mb to 1009 could today be the day it gains some more strengh. ? does anyone thiong think could surpise us and make it to td status
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE



This one






Or this one






???
These are Navy exercises, not actual cyclones
Quoting RitaEvac:



The drought is going from nasty to evil...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z update, down 1mb


AL 91 2011042112 BEST 0 236N 629W 35 1009 LO
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, I'll read almost anything--so long as it's based on scientific facts and logic, and not, say, desperate denialistic dreams of some fantasy fossil fuel future. ;-)

Let's assume the EIA CO2 numbers are correct (though the EIA's mission is to promote increases in domestic energy production--mainly via coal--so the results should be questioned, as always):

--That would be good news; every single ton of CO2 kept out of the environment delays any "tipping point", so that would be welcome;

--It would show that knowledge and regulation, along with a raise in gasoline prices and a slump in the national economy, is helping limit CO2 a bit;

--The United States is no longer the leader in overall CO2 production; that goes to China. However, on a per capita basis, the U.S. is still the Big Hog; we emit a little over 19 tons each per year, while the Chinese emit under five tons per year. (And by comparison, India's per capita CO2 tonnage is 1.31.)

--Overall, global CO2 is still rising, and even were our 5.6% national drop to spread to every country, that's nowhere nearly enough.

--As Toma Taylor noted, it's global warming; we're all in this together.


And, once again, that "per capita" basis can be misleading. The US (last time I looked) was about 11th in that list (at 18.9). In 1990, our per capita rate was 19.1.

There are several countries, with populations less than ours, that have higher per capita rates, and rising faster than us.

Qatar is at the top of Wiki's list, at 55.4 per capita tonnage (up from 25.2 in 1990).

They were (as of 2007), emitting almost 3x the CO2 we are (per capita), and 11x the CO2 of China (per capita).

And WE'RE the "big hogs"?

We've managed to reduce our emissions by 5% since 1990, they've doubled theirs.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This one






Or this one






???
These are Navy exercises, not actual cyclones
i was just doing a test post of the image clearly marked
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lady on local news station in Houston was saying water temps where 91L are way too cold for development, and I'm like ok lady, whatever, how the hell has it made it to invest status then? even I know water temps are in the upper 70s to 80 out there. And if atmoshpheric conditions are decent things can develop under 80 degree water.


I don't mean any disrespect to the media's profession, but I had girl in one of my basic Atmo classes that just made me shake my head. Now she is on the channel three news here every night in Central Illinois as the weather gal. She struggled mightly in that class, but she majored as a journalist. It baffels me how she got the gig based on her "understanding" of weather. It's funny to see her on the news saying inaccurate facts on some of most basic weather conditions.
856. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:
It's April and were invest watching, crazy year in store for us


Second invest at that. In fact the first one in March out in the Eastern Atlantic was so very well organized I am still surprised it was not classified.
Widespread drought in the south central US. Oklahoma, Lousiana, getting bad
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like 91l is still holding on also down 1 mb to 1009 could today be the day it gains some more strengh. ? does anyone thiong think could surpise us and make it to td status



it has winds of 35KT in other words it is at TS status
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I don't mean any disrespect to the media's profession, but I had girl in one of my basic Atmo classes that just made me shake my head. Now she is on the channel three news here every night in Central Illinois as the weather gal. She struggled mightly in that class, but she majored as a journalist. It baffels me how she got the gig based on her "understanding" of weather. It's funny to see her on the news saying inaccurate facts on some of most basic weather conditions.


Yea, a lot of news weather folks are not that good, there are some but very few
This is something you might see in August or something, it's April! and the extreme heat hasn't even come yet. Dire situation setting up in the South Central US.

Quoting RitaEvac:
It's April and were invest watching, crazy year in store for us
Have you seen these huge areas of convection moving into the Gulf of Guinea.? If that were to keep up into the season, the Antilles and the Caribbean could be in for a bad year...
Joe Bastardi says:
April 21, 2011 at 3:50 am
I posted on this a few days ago on weatherbell. Fact is that we had an April Storm in 2003 and Andrea in early May of 2007. If anyone should get the blame for stirring the pot, its me, not TPC.

Lets remember that tropical cyclones have been seen in almost all months of the year, including a development in late December 1954 then went into Jan of 55 ( Alice the 2cnd) So if anyone is to blame here, it is me and given the chance of quick feedback, borderline water temps ( near 25C) and the fact a low level circulation had developed over 48 hrs ago, I see nothing wrong with TPC outlining this before hand.

I will take full blame ( or credit) for this, but in the end it has nothing to do with global warming..

Now what would be interesting is if we had a classified system tomorrow pm, while its snowing and sleeting in the mtns of pa...

ciao


Saw this little gem in the comments section over at Watts' blog. (I'm not gonna link to WUWT though...)

Classic Bastardi!
Quoting Tazmanian:



it has winds of 35KT in other words it is at TS status


Just because it has TS force winds doesn't make it a TS.
Plenty of extra-tropical storms hit winds up to hurricane force, doesn't make them tropical.
864. P451
Convection, albeit sheared, firing over the center for some time now.

ShortWave 2/ surface wind:



Quoting hydrus:
Have you seen these huge areas of convection moving into the Gulf of Guinea.? If that were to keep up into the season, the Antilles and the Caribbean could be in for a bad year...


Yea, but wouldn't you think the convection and cloud cover would keep the waters cooler not allowing the sun to heat the waters as long as monster waves and convection constantly ride the Atlantic?...
866. P451
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Just because it has TS force winds doesn't make it a TS.
Plenty of extra-tropical storms hit winds up to hurricane force, doesn't make them tropical.


I think Taz is saying if it were classified it would jump to TS status not TD status based on TS level winds.

Quoting hydrus:
Have you seen these huge areas of convection moving into the Gulf of Guinea.? If that were to keep up into the season, the Antilles and the Caribbean could be in for a bad year...


There's certainly a lot coming off Africa, but it's very far south. Would need to be coming out a good bit higher to have a chance of spinning up though. Early signs of a busy Cape Verde season, nevertheless.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, a lot of news weather folks are not that good, there are some but very few
And a lot of them major in broadcasting and minor in meteorology...Minoring in meteorology and explaining dangerous weather to millions of people in not a good combination in my opinion...but that is all it is...My opinion.
Quoting P451:


I think Taz is saying if it were classified it would jump to TS status not TD status based on TS level winds.



True enough. It'll certainly be interesting to see how far it gets....
870. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, but wouldn't you think the convection and cloud cover would keep the waters cooler not allowing the sun to heat the waters as long as monster waves and convection constantly ride the Atlantic?...


Since development does not occur that far south I would think it wouldn't impeded the water temps in the development region to the north. As long as that wave train continues once the ITCZ makes that sudden jump 10 degrees northward as it does each season the train would be going over the warmer undisturbed waters in the development zone.
91L is looking very impressive this morning, this may have a decent chance to make history and be named.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lady on local news station in Houston was saying water temps where 91L are way too cold for development, and I'm like ok lady, whatever, how the hell has it made it to invest status then? even I know water temps are in the upper 70s to 80 out there. And if atmoshpheric conditions are decent things can develop under 80 degree water.


News-Caster!!
Quoting P451:
Convection, albeit sheared, firing over the center for some time now.

ShortWave 2/ surface wind:



It has a closed LLC and some convection with 40 mph winds....it should be classified as a TS/STS
Quoting P451:


Since development does not occur that far south I would think it wouldn't impeded the water temps in the development region to the north. As long as that wave train continues once the ITCZ makes that sudden jump 10 degrees northward as it does each season the train would be going over the warmer undisturbed waters in the development zone.


That's the area I'm talking about, the MDR where they normally ride, if it looks like this 10 degrees north where it is now it would keep those water temps down,
875. P451
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


True enough. It'll certainly be interesting to see how far it gets....


As it moves northward it is going to enter low enough shear for further development. Question then is borderline water temps I would think. Then the system is expected to slide back southward back into the hostile shear and be torn apart.

It does have about a 36-48 hour window to organize enough to warrant classification.

Quoting reedzone:
91L is looking very impressive this morning, this may have a decent chance to make history and be named.
History, huh? Looks like the hyperbole-hype-machine is quite active for April!
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


There's certainly a lot coming off Africa, but it's very far south. Would need to be coming out a good bit higher to have a chance of spinning up though. Early signs of a busy Cape Verde season, nevertheless.
They gain some latitude as they track across the ocean..I was very impressed with the size and strength of MCC,s that were moving offshore. This could be a sign the wave machine might be more active than normal.
879. 7544
Quoting sammywammybamy:
It has a closed LLC and some convection with 40 mph winds....it should be classified as a TS/STS


agree there sammy but i think the nhc will wait 6 to 12 hours if it holds they would prob call it and thanks taz
Quoting SeALWx:
History, huh? Looks like the hyperbole-hype-machine is quite active for April!
LOL
Good morning, everyone. Had not planned to start "lurking" until JUNE, but looks like mother nature has other plans for me!! I hope it just brings South Florida some much needed rains next week...have too many local wildfires in our area...three counties fighting fires yesterday. Looks like we might have a bumpy ride this season.
Or (and I want to be the first to say it)...."This season was a bust!) LOL
882. P451
CMC:




GFS:





ECMWF:


Quoting P451:


As it moves northward it is going to enter low enough shear for further development. Question then is borderline water temps I would think. Then the system is expected to slide back southward back into the hostile shear and be torn apart.

It does have about a 36-48 hour window to organize enough to warrant classification.

gonna bring some rain to the Bahamas,Florida, and cuba
Quoting P451:


As it moves northward it is going to enter low enough shear for further development. Question then is borderline water temps I would think. Then the system is expected to slide back southward back into the hostile shear and be torn apart.

It does have about a 36-48 hour window to organize enough to warrant classification.



A bit further west and north and the shear should fall, with SSTs still around 25 degrees celsius. I think it'll get to the point where it could be named, but it's more a matter of whether or not the NHC decide to. There isn't really a certain point at which it will be named, it's pretty much down to the opinion of the NHC.
Not sure this will get named, but 91L will bring some much needed rain to a few areas.
Looking forward to it!
887. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's the area I'm talking about, the MDR where they normally ride, if it looks like this 10 degrees north where it is now it would keep those water temps down,


Ah I see what you mean and yes that would be correct if the disturbances were to parade across the MDR prior the the atmosphere being conducive for development then the waters would be kept cooler as a result.

We're at least 6 weeks away from seeing the ITCZ northward transition so it's hard to say if this moisture train would still be continuing or not.





Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Good morning, everyone. Had not planned to start "lurking" until JUNE, but looks like mother nature has other plans for me!! I hope it just brings South Florida some much needed rains next week...have too many local wildfires in our area...three counties fighting fires yesterday. Looks like we might have a bumpy ride this season.
Or (and I want to be the first to say it)...."This season was a bust!) LOL
Agreed
NEW BLOG
Quoting SeALWx:
History, huh? Looks like the hyperbole-hype-machine is quite active for April!


Wow, lay off, it would make history by being named, not becoming anything more then a weak system.
Sorry guys.....but there is still some darn weather out there....


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