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Tornadoes, extreme flooding, unprecedented heat expected in U.S. today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on March 19, 2012

Widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding is expected this afternoon through Wednesday morning in Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri, warns the National Weather Service in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in their latest flood watch for the region. The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that dumped heavy snows that closed several interstate highways in Arizona over the weekend. This storm system will collide with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front yesterday had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year, and moisture levels are expected to remain at record levels today. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front will lift huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing record rains to fall. A wide region of 4 - 8 inches of rain is expected in the flood watch area, and isolated amounts as high as 15 inches could fall by Wednesday, as numerous rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same area. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Moderate Risk of severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and few strong tornadoes are expected to affect the area late this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of West Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Eleven tornadoes were reported yesterday in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota.


Figure 1. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 3-day period Monday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 7+ inches (yellow colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, Western Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.


Figure 2. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Summer in March for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest is one of the most extreme heat events in U.S. history. With so many records being shattered, it is difficult to cover in detail just how widespread, long-lasting, and extreme the event is, and I offer just a few highlights:

Winner, South Dakota hit 94°F yesterday, the earliest 90°+ reading ever recorded in the Northern Plains, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. The 94°F reading was just 2°F short of the all-time state record for South Dakota in March, which was 96°F in Tyndall in 1943. However, subsequent analysis by NOAA questioned this 94°F reading, and it is now believed that 87°F is the appropriate high for Winner.

International Falls, Minnesota hit 79°F yesterday, the hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. At midnight this morning, the temperature was 66°F there, breaking the record high for March 19 (set in 1910) by 6°F. The low temperature for International Falls bottomed out near 60°F this morning, so low for today is (unofficially) the same as the previous record high for the date. This is the seventh consecutive day that International Falls has broken or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.

Houghton, Michigan, near the frigid shores of Lake Superior, hit 76°F both Saturday and Sunday. It was the hottest March temperature on record, and an astonishing 44°F above the average high for the date (Saturday) of 32°. Huron, South Dakota also recorded a high temperature (88°F) that was 44° above the average high for the date, on Sunday. Most of the cities in Northern Michigan set all-time March high temperature records over the weekend.

Chicago, Illinois now has a string of five consecutive days of 80°+ temperatures, and the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year (82°F on Friday, and tied again on Saturday). The average high temperature in August is 82°F in Chicago, so this week is basically summer weather. Prior to this year, there had only been 10 days in March with highs in the 80s in Chicago, going back to 1871. The last time Chicago saw an 80 degree temperature during the month of March (prior to this year) was over 22 years ago back on March 12, 1990 when the high temperature hit 81. This morning's Public Information Statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago had this to say about this unprecedented March heat:

Chicago and Rockford have now both broken high temperature records 5 days in a row. There is even the potential they could tie or break record highs for up to an unbelievable 8 days in a row depending on how warm temperatures get Monday through Wednesday. It is extraordinarily rare for climate locations with 100+ year long periods of records to break records day after day after day.


Figure 3. March's month-to-date average temperature compared to the other top 5 warmest months of March in Chicago. The dotted blue lines are month-to-date average temperatures based on the current predicted temperatures. The hashed black line is the average month to date temperature for March. These graphs really illustrate just how far above the previous warmest top 5 Marches this month really has been and assuming no major pattern change the last week of the month gives some indication of just how far above the record March 2012 could end up being. Image credit: NWS Chicago.

Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba broke its record high for the past four days in a row, and hit 21°C yesterday, its hottest temperature on record so early in the year. With today's forecast by Environment Canada and wunderground both calling for highs near 25°C (77°F), Winnipeg is likely to record its highest March temperature on record. Previous record: 23.3°C on March 27, 1946. The earliest date for a 25°C+ temperature in Winnipeg is April 9, 1977.


Figure 4. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is very unlikely that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case today, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Moderate Risk area for severe weather over much of Texas today, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Flood risk low this year for the Northern Plains
For the first time in four years, the Northern Plains are not expecting major to record snow melt flooding, said NOAA's National Weather Service in their annual spring flood outlook issued last week. Residents along the Mississippi, Missouri, Red, and Souris Rivers have endured a punishing series of bad flood years, but this year is unlikely to continue that trend, due to a lack of snow cover. The Northern Plains states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota recorded their 3rd - 8th warmest winter in the 117-year record, and are on pace to crush the record for warmest March in history. Winter snowfall was below average over most of the region, and what snow was on the ground at the beginning of March has mostly melted, thanks to the record-breaking March heat this week. The Souris and Red River basins contain about one-third the amount of water in the snow as last year, ranking this season in the lower half of the last 60 years. Precipitation this water year (since Oct 1, 2011) has been less than 50% of the normal across the Upper Mississippi and Upper Missouri Valleys, and much of the region is under moderate to severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor.


Figure 5. What a difference a year makes! Snow cover on March 15 of last year (top) was heavy over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and caused massive flooding problems on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers during spring melt season. In contrast, there is almost no snow pack in the Upper Midwest this year (bottom), significantly reducing the odds of spring flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.


Figure 6. The U.S. spring flood risk, as predicted by the National Weather Service on March 15, 2012.

Jeff Masters
March 18th sundown
March 18th sundown
Today it was warm, sunny & calm water with clouds matching the mood of the people just enjoying this view.
Mullet Lake ice melting
Mullet Lake ice melting
I pulled a piece of ice out of Mullet Lake in Northern Michigan during my bike ride along the shore. It was so strange riding shirtless in 82°F heat along the shore of a frozen lake. The ground still had some snow patches from the 16" snow storm from last week. The lake ice is breaking up weeks ahead of usual due to our warm winter and incredible March heat.
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
Come have a glass of wine on the patio!
LOL woke up to MORE snow, in the VOC (Sedona) are today, want to have a drink on the patio with us?
End of the Icefishing Season
End of the Icefishing Season
One last beautiful day on the ice but it's beginning to weaken and get unsafe- another 60 plus degree day. Normally we'd have about 3' of ice or more but this season it was about 24" at the most.

Heat Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

San Antonio cell:



Quoting ScottLincoln:


Could be RFD coming up the interstate, too.
No confirmed tornado on the ground.
San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.
I'm about 5 miles southwest of Fredericksburg, TX. I'm worried about the tornado warning just to my southwest. Any thoughts on it???
We launched a 00Z sounding here at the University, so hopefully that will help forecasts here on out.



Link
Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.


CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND HEADING TOWARDS SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS ***
UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA
COUNTIES...

... AT 822 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED
TO HAVE PRODUCED DAMAGE AS RECENTLY AS 806 PM.

THE TORNADO IS TRACKING NEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF I-35 TOWARD
THE COMMUNITY OF MIDWAY. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE
SOMERSET...MANGUS CORNER...MACDONA...VON ORMY...THELMA AND LACKLAND
AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A VEHICLE IS EASILY ROLLED AND CRUSHED BY A TORNADO. DO NOT TRY TO
OUTRUN ONE. IF NO STRONG BUILDING IS CLOSE...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AND
TAKE SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. COVER YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY...BATHROOM...OR CLOSET. COVER
YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS OR EVEN A MATTRESS FOR BETTER
PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
San Antonio's in trouble. IF there is a tornado on the ground it is almost certainly going to hit the city.
A little old. AT 806 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A DAMAGING TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LYTLE. AT 814 PM...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

But am listening to a conversation between 2 chasers and 1 of them is on that storm. He says there is a tornado on the ground.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.
Can never tell strength of radar. I thought for sure West Liberty was an EF5.
hey guys you remember the two map that someone posted last year with a heap of storm you know the dooms day hurricane 2012 thing can someone post that for me right now I need to use that image for something
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No confirmed tornado on the ground.


Yes. But that doesn't mean that the tornado is causing every bit of damage that is reported. RFDs many times can produce damage similar to a weak tornado, and over a larger area. Present that with an interstate and many vehicles, you'll get reports like above. Point is we don't know exactly what caused the report, maybe wasn't the tornado itself.

Either way, the tornadic circulation seems to be going a bit more of a northeasterly track compared to when it first did its right-turn earlier this evening. I'd be a bit more worried for southern and central San Antonio metro now.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

TXC013-029-325-200200-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120320T0200Z/
MEDINA TX-BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA
COUNTIES...

AT 827 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A DAMAGING
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGE NEAR I-35 AT NATALIA AT 806 PM.

THE TORNADO WILL REACH MIDWAY BY 835 PM...AND NEAR VON ARMY...
MACONA AND MANGUS CORNER ALONG LOOP 1604 BY 845 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AND LACKLAND AFB. LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TORNADO TRACK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A VEHICLE IS EASILY ROLLED AND CRUSHED BY A TORNADO. DO NOT TRY TO
OUTRUN ONE. IF NO STRONG BUILDING IS CLOSE...LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AND
TAKE SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. COVER YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY...BATHROOM...OR CLOSET. COVER
YOURSELF WITH BLANKETS...PILLOWS OR EVEN A MATTRESS FOR BETTER
PROTECTION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2924 9855 2924 9880 2930 9884 2943 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 222DEG 18KT 2928 9874

$$
Chaser says tornado has been on ground sense first report and took a NW turn recently. Link


from KABB Fox San Antonio

tornado heading to San Antonio
Quoting Patrap:

The storm has wobbled left it looks like...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A little old. AT 806 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A DAMAGING TORNADO ON THE GROUND 2 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF LYTLE. AT 814 PM...THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LYTLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

But am listening to a conversation between 2 chasers and 1 of them is on that storm. He says there is a tornado on the ground.


It's probably about to rope out. Radar representation died out quick. Storm pulled to the north of previous track even more. The more northerly track makes me wonder if it is not as surface-based as before. Still, could recycle with a new RFD and circulation at any time.
Quoting ncstorm:


from KABB Fox San Antonio

tornado heading to San Antonio
Wow may have to issue a tornado emergency soon.
520. Tygor
KEN5 is showing pictures of the tornado on the ground. The current storm is reaching the city limits, but the tornado portion of the cell is still quite some time away. Downtown is still probably 20 minutes away. They're saying the tornadic portion of the storm is tracking downtown.
I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.
Tornado on the ground being reported by Tornado Trojans!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It's probably about to rope out. Radar representation died out quick. Storm pulled to the north of previous track even more. The more northerly track makes me wonder if it is not as surface-based as before. Still, could recycle with a new RFD and circulation at any time.
Listening to a chaser on a call with a chaser on the storm. He says its been on the ground the whole time. Posted link to it below.
NWS needs to put downtown under a tornado warning
Quoting Madrid:
I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.


Don't stick around here!!
Quoting Madrid:
I saw the tornado touching down SW of the city. It is a fact. Shoot, the path goes as right now right on top of my neighborhood.

It troubles at 20 mph. We have about 15 min more. Closing here now. Thanks again to all.

Stay safe!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
NWS needs to put downtown under a tornado warning
Storm has gotten weaker but it could cycle.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Nothing much, just hangin out..how bout you
I'm good....I been a bit busy with school work today
I live in Northeast Texas about 60 miles east of the Lousiana border. I'm hoping to get through this event without any issues, but we're in a Tornado Watch area so I'm not sure. >_<
From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio
532. redux
the one south of the san antonio one showing a hook signature too.
OMG! GFS @ 456 hours says the eye's going right through my front yard!

Don't worry the XTRP model says it will miss you by a mile...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tornado doesn't look terribly strong on radar, certainly no EF-4 or EF-5. Still, an EF-1 or 2 tornado moving through Downtown is not a good thing at all.

This could be really bad
Quoting CybrTeddy:
From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio


So probably a rope tornado, then. :)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...87...89...

VALID 200122Z - 200215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
85...87...89...CONTINUES.

GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL TX INCLUDING THE TX HILL COUNTRY AREA THIS EVENING. AT LEAST
TWO TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WERE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0130Z OVER SCNTRL TX
INCLUDING ONE MOVING INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SWRN PORTION OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SCNTRL TX WEST OF THE SAN ANTONIO
AREA. A COUPLE OF OTHER DISCRETE AND LIKELY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY INCLUDING ONE IN PROXIMITY TO SAN
ANTONIO. THESE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AS THEY BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE RICHER MOISTURE OVER SCNTRL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS NEAR 3000
J/KG AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS EXIST. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING
AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS
CATCHING UP WITH WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28720037 29680013 31079797 32059718 33849566 32959533
30959650 28319919 28720037
Quoting ScottLincoln:


So probably a rope tornado, then. :)
He does tend to exaggerate.
539. Tygor
Quoting CybrTeddy:
From Reed Timmer in D2.
Watching a large tornado right now about 4 miles northeast of Lytle heading for San Antonio


If this is true, it has about 10 minutes to get into the air before things get bad.
Looks like the cell has considerably weakened.

Both storms that were once supercells appear to have lost their surface-based updrafts and are now moving more northerly. Their cores have both diminished considerably and it is nearing a point were a recycle is getting less likely. San Antonio might live to see another day.
Looks like it lifted before San Antonio got hit.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like the cell has considerably weakened.

Don't write it off yet these guys tend to cycle.
Reed Timmer picture of San Antonio Tornado.


JUST came in about 27 seconds ago.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Both storms that were once supercells appear to have lost their surface-based updrafts and are now moving more northerly. Their cores have both diminished considerably and it is nearing a point were a recycle is getting less likely. San Antonio might live to see another day.
Yah seems right.
ROTFL!!!!!!!



Problem anyone?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Don't write it off yet these guys tend to cycle.


Supercells do, but it requires the downdraft to cause a new updraft, the new updraft to cause a new downdraft, etc. Inflow has substantially weakened, the core is virtually gone aloft, and both storms appear to no longer be connected to the surface. Still could flare up again but I'm thinking it's pretty unlikely now. They no longer appear to be supercellular and just look like remnant moisture waiting to precipitate out. Need a new core to form aloft, and quick, or its basically over. Havent seen a strong RFD lately that could help produce a strong updraft to get it cycled back up.
..Humor has it's place, but idiocy tends to leave a room, empty.
550. JeffM
Tornado warning for San Antonio canceled per local news.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Supercells do, but it requires the downdraft to cause a new updraft, the new updraft to cause a new downdraft, etc. Inflow has substantially weakened, the core is virtually gone aloft, and both storms appear to no longer be connected to the surface. Still could flare up again but I'm thinking it's pretty unlikely now. They no longer appear to be supercellular and just look like remnant moisture waiting to precipitate out. Need a new core to form aloft, and quick, or its basically over. Havent seen a strong RFD lately that could help produce a strong updraft to get it cycled back up.
Yes I noticed this a litter bit after the comment was made.
San Antonio tornado cancelled. Dodged a bullet.
068
WFUS54 KTSA 200151
TORTSA
OKC001-021-135-200230-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0006.120320T0151Z-120320T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
851 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 848 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE TENKILLER STATE PARK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
COOKSON...CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...TAHLEQUAH AND ELDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
554. Tygor
http://www.kens5.com/news/slideshows/font-color9900 00bPHOTOS-BFONTKENS-5-viewers-capture-the-weather- 143416236.html?gallery=y&c=y&ref=%2Fslideshows#/ne ws/slideshows/font-color990000bPHOTOS-BFONTKENS-5- viewers-capture-the-weather-143416236.html?gallery =y&c=y&ref=%2Fslideshows&img=0&c=y&c=y

Kind of a long link, but plenty of tornado pictures there.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like it lifted before San Antonio got hit.

That would be goood news
Now all radars shift north!
Tulsa-Inola
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

San Antonio funnel:

twister
The cold front came through and all Fargo got was a measly 0.07 inches of rain.

*SIGH*
311
WFUS54 KEWX 200156
TOREWX
TXC013-029-200300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0010.120320T0156Z-120320T0300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
856 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ATASCOSA COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* AT 849 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
POTEET...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LEMING.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS FM 476 AND HIGHWAY 16 BETWEEN POTEET AND
SOMERSET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.



LAT...LON 2933 9859 2904 9835 2889 9877 2902 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 222DEG 19KT 2900 9872
561. Tygor
Local news just reported the tornado warning has been reissued, probably with the 2nd cell.

http://www.kens5.com/on-tv/
Cell might be recycling, hook is getting more pronounced on radar again.
Someone earlier was asking about best-estimate rainfall (as in not radar-estimated only). Here is a link to the quality-controlled best-estimate multi-sensor rainfall product from the NWS River Forecast Centers:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

Worries on a new cell to the S, tornado warned heading NE.
Look out Fredericksburg...
Interesting. Thankfully though, it looks like this cell is weakening as well.

Evening all. First chance to check in with the blog since this morning.... I'm assuming we've had some tornado activity today, but haven't read back as yet. We had another good day here, and I'm beginning to wonder how much longer it can last...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Worries on a new cell to the S, tornado warned heading NE.
Lol was not expecting it to make it this far north.
572. redux
tornado siren just heard on the tornado trojans....possible ringtone?
Some of this stuff looks interesting.



I seen Raleigh NWS radar will get Dual Polarization in november..BUT I DONT WANNA WAIT lol. april...may..june..july..august..september..octobe r...6 months :(

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.
I'm a mile east of the interstate.

578. Tygor
Storms about dead around the city. That tornado pic is incredible.
hey guys please help me

you remember the TWO map that someone posted last year with a heap of storm you know the dooms day hurricane 2012 thing can someone post that for me right now I need to use that image for something
Quoting CybrTeddy:

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.

Holy @^*%!!!
581. flsky
Yeow - this probably took more time for you to compile than it was worth. Maybe you just keep a running tally as the season develops. At any rate, I think you've got it covered!

Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's your comprehensive list:

Fish storm! We are all DOOM! Poof! Flagged and re ported! Welcome to my ignore list! CMC! NAM! BAMM! GFDL! HWFI! LBAR! LGEM! SHIPS! TVCN! UKMET! XTRP! XTRP isn't a model! TUTT! Shear! Pinhole eye! Pinehole eye! Annular! Fujiwhara! Rapid intensification! I have a bad feeling about this! This could be another Ivan! Another Wilma! Another Andrerw! Another Camille! Don't like the looks of that! Things may get interesting soon! Things are going to get really scary next week! Season's just getting started! They need to move the start of season up to mid-May! There'll be no storms until mid-July! Ruh-roh! The 06z ECMWF shows a 995mb low right over my house at 384 hours! Season's over! This season's boring! Troll! Bustcaster! Westcaster! Backcaster! Nowcaster! Hypecaster! Doomcaster! The NHC is wrong! The NHC is lying! The NHC has really gone downhill lately! They're not classifying it because they don't want to scare us! They classified it because they want to inflate the numbers! Recon should make one more pass! They don't know what they're doing! Is that a wobble, or a jog? HAARP! Spurious low! Is it an invest yet? If the remnant low of a named storm comes back to life, does it get a new name?! ME GUSTA GRITAR EN ESPANOL EN LETRAS MAYUSCULAS! It's headed to the GOM! It's moving due west! It's going to Florida! It's not going to Florida! Westward! Poleward! The ocean's hot enough to boil shrimp! The Gulf's like a bottle with the cork in too tight! The Caribbean's like a ticking time bomb! The entire Atlantic is like a pressure-cooker with a clogged valve! The NHC needs a new box of crayons! The NHC finally found its box of crayons! Recurve! Wait; shouldn't it just be "curve" and not "recurve"?! Curtains up! Thanks, Dr. Masters! Face palm! Head explodes! The low is pumping the ridge! Shower curtain! JFV! Long-time lurker! I couldn't resist! 90% at the next TWO! Hebert Box! Hope Rule! Hot tub! High Octane! Jet fuel! Rocket fuel! Hot tub full of high-octane jet-like rocket fuel! Lol! LOL! ROFL! ROFLMAO! ROFLMFAO!!!!! SAL! MJO! PDO! NAO! ENSO! EWRC! SST! TCHP! OHC! TWC! TWC sucks! Cantore's in town; look out! AOI! MDR! COC! BOC! GOM! SLOSH! There's too much going on to talk about GW! There's nothing going on; do we have to talk about GW?! Hot tower! RIP! Thanks for the update! The ants are going crazy here! Cashews! We're going on a Caribbean cruise in a month-and-a-half; how are things looking for us? The models are shifting left! The models are shifting right! The models are dead on! The models were dead wrong! I don't feel like reading back, so I need a summary of the tropics! I'm in the cone! It looks like it's coming right into my livingroom! Lame; I get more wind and rain from a normal summer thunderstorm! I can't wait until the next TWO! I told you so! F5F5F5F5F5! The season's a bust! Don't quote the trolls! Ignored! Where is everybody?! The blog is s-l-o-w. The blog is boring! Z-z-z-z-z-z...
Quoting CybrTeddy:

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.
Imagine that actually going into downtown San Antonio.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.


That appears to be more of a large tornado. Hopefully that was after it passed Divine.
The wide view:

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 907 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 904 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LA CROSSE WI - KARX 901 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 900 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 856 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 851 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 839 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING LA CROSSE WI - KARX 838 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 834 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 832 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 829 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 829 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 825 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 815 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 623 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 807 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 803 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 802 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 802 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 756 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 748 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 609 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TORNADO WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 744 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 742 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 737 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 737 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
588. skook
Can anyone post a close up Radar of San Antonio?
..Ahhhhh, Fresca and Warm Blueberry pie..

Nitey...
Look out Fredericksburg.....Dont look too nice
Quoting skook:
Can anyone post a close up Radar of San Antonio?

Does this work or should it be closer/further out?

592. JeffM
Quoting CybrTeddy:

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.


This is a photo from tornado in Kansas from 2004. That is NOT from tonight's storm.
Uff! that was some scarie moments. It went way North of us, but the other cell keeps moving this way. It seems it's loosing its pep.

Thank you once more to you guys.
Quoting JeffM:


This is a photo from tornado in Kansas from 2004. That is NOT from tonight's storm.
If your going to make an accusation have a source.
San Antonio is going to go to sleep thinking they dodged a bullet and was all hype, only to get rocked later tonight from the west with the big storms that will come roaring thru.
I can see why those supercells really weakened. With the loss of surface heating, convective inhibition is on the rise and really making it hard for storms to sustain themselves without a boundary of some sort. However, the CAPE is still there, and with air forced up along the approaching boundary, there is still a good amount of insability to work with. Helicities also remain high, so although they might not be classic supercells, there is still a notable risk of tornadoes this evening.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD COMPLICATES THE FORECAST.

HAVING SAID THAT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SUPPORTS SOME SURFACE CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH TIME...WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 4 /THU 3-22/...THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY DAY 5 /FRI 3-23/...THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST DAY 6 /SAT 3-24/...AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7 /SUN 3-25/. ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED...GIVEN WEAK SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 03/19/2012

------------------------------------
so maybe the east will get a slight risk(I HOPE). they said thru day 6, and East coast was day 7, hehehe. we shall c
Eagle Pass, TX is currently a thunderstorm factory.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC019-171-265-385-463-200530-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0018.120320T0223Z-120320T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
923 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BANDERA COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...
CENTRAL KERR COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT.

* AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER
THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 PM. RADAR
ESTIMATES COMBINED WITH GROUND REPORTS SUGGEST THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA BY 1030 PM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
KERRVILLE...VANDERPOOL...GARNER STATE PARK...HARPER...HUNT...
INGRAM...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...LOST MAPLES STATE PARK...MOUNTAIN
HOME...REAGAN WELLS...RIO FRIO...TIVYDALE...UTOPIA AND WALTONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS HARD TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING AT NIGHT. IF FLOOD
WATERS RISE ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT STAY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9890 2947 9954 2956 9987 3038 9922

$$

Chicago did not hit 80 today and ended their streak. A pity.

But in Georgia we've kept ours going. Atlanta and Athens tied their record for the most consecutive 80 degree days in March. And tomorrow so will Columbus, GA. Atlanta and Athens are both forecast to break their record March 80 degree day streaks tomorrow.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 200246Z - 200445Z

HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY FROM 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL REMAIN
LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGHER RATES ARE EXPECTED FROM
S-CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL TX INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY.

EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN TX
SWWD THROUGH SCNTRL AND SWRN TX EAST OF DEL RIO. NERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THIS FEATURE TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY ALONG SWRN
PORTIONS. DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE
BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION BACKBUILDING SWWD TO NEAR THE MEXICAN
BORDER. WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST AND THE
TENDENCY FOR MID-UPPER FLOW TO BACK WITH TIME...STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TRAINING NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
AS THE STORMS TRAIN NEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 32689569 30559740 28719987 29440058 31089851 33169627
32689569
Things are really lighting up now convection-wise!



Click for a loop.
Looks like I won't be spending so much time in TX this year 1900hurricane.
TORNADO WARNING
ARC033-143-200330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0007.120320T0257Z-120320T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF CEDARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...MOUNTAINBURG...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...CHESTER...
LAKE FORT SMITH...BLACKBURN...WINSLOW AND BRENTWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9399 3566 9402 3566 9407 3564 9407
3552 9445 3576 9449 3590 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 241DEG 33KT 3560 9439

pink triangle south of Waco

edit-Not now that I post it here.

They seem to have lost most of their spin, but they sure are dropping a great deal of rain!



Quoting jamesrainier:
pink triangle



Doesn't look warranted based on velocities.

Just watched a youtube vid with some pictures and video clips of Sanford NC tornado damamge last year first hand....made me wanna cry. And it wasnt the damamge that made me wanna cry, it was the fact that the pictures n the video was my home town that i grew up in. And too see it destroyed REALLY hurts.

Felt just like the time when we drove past Lowe's on the 16th of april...hurt.
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?
Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?


Waco.
This area from Temple to Waco looks like it might be mauled by rainfall tonight!

614. Tygor
Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?


LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Dries tornado warning in history
615. Tygor
Quoting Tygor:



LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Driest tornado warning in history
LOL whats gotten into 93.9 FM? in Raleigh, the dude said" can you beleive it we will be closing in on 90 tomorrow for a high" and im like, "ARE YOU STUPID!?" cuz Raliegh is forecast to only reach 80 tomorrow.


he must be making his own forecasts lol
Quoting Tygor:


LOL yeah i'm at the airport in San Antonio. 0.04"

Driest tornado warning in history
yeah but you really did not want an EF3 or more ripping down the door
Quoting Tygor:


It's coming, and you'll know when it parks over you
That's what I call saturation!

Quoting SPLbeater:
LOL whats gotten into 93.9 FM? in Raleigh, the dude said" can you beleive it we will be closing in on 90 tomorrow for a high" and im like, "ARE YOU STUPID!?" cuz Raliegh is forecast to only reach 80 tomorrow.


he must be making his own forecasts lol
no SPL it will be 90 tomorrow real feel with humidex values factor in thats why dew points run high means humid conditions will occur



............... "ARE YOU STUPID!?" ................
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight

This line has slowed way the hell down, makes me wonder when this will ever make it to Houston/Galveston tomm
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight



Nice! Only 50-60 feet needed? We'll take it!
Quoting muddertracker:
Cedar Park Texas...not a drop...my son actually played an entire baseball game! (we lost 7-5) Where's the rain?

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.
Quoting RitaEvac:
This line has slowed way the hell down, makes me wonder when this will ever make it to Houston/Galveston tomm
crawling or tech term Quasi-stationary
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lake Travis about to get it's dues tonight

That would be awesome since it is down 50 feet from being full, I would Love 10 inches to fall around the Lake tonight, very heavy rains west of San Antonio moving very slowly this way.
Quoting redwagon:

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.


Yall have any idea what's coming from your SW....
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be awesome since it is down 50 feet from being full, I would Love 10 inches to fall around the Lake tonight, very heavy rains west of San Antonio moving very slowly this way.


Incoming short wave coming outta Mexico conjoining the line, gonna be some drought busting rains tonight
Quoting redwagon:

Starting to worry.. all is set up for big rains for 6 days and no rain.

No identifiable 'TX Death High' but rain that is happening right in front of us isn't hapenning.


I think we'll get ours...well...off to sleep...with the sound of the NOAA weather radio guy repeating himself softly in the background...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 200233
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHALLOW SHOWERS WERE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS SE TX AT MID
EVENING. THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFERED ON THE TIMING OF THE
EVENTS...WITH THE NAM12 APPEARING TO BE TOO SLOW. THE 00Z RUC
LOOKED GOOD AND BROUGHT THE LINE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO EXPECT THE MAIN
LINE OF STORMS TO SLOW ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT GIVEN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN INCLUDE THE WIND ADVISORY...CHANCES FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...THE WINDS ARE STILL MIXING DOWN ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME SITES ABOVE 25 MPH AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS FROM KCRP...KLCH...AND A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT COLLEGE
STATION ALL INDICATED THAT THE CAP WAS STRONGEST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. THE COLLEGE STATION
SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP PRETTY MUCH ERODED. THIS INFORMATION IN
ADDITION TO THE RUC FORECAST AND THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE LIEN
OUT WEST INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCES
FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BY 08Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.

WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO MODIFY THE TIMING OF EVENTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
Can draw a line from Temple northward and the line is progressing eastward, everything south of Temple is stalled out and training
Eagle Pass remains a thunderstorm factory.

This has the possibility to be an exceptionally dangerous situation setting up tonight!

well goodnight all. back tomorrow morning...as usual.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Can draw a line from Temple northward and the line is progressing eastward, everything south of Temple is stalled out and training



This thing seems to be stalling out farther west than initially predicted. This could be a significant flood threat for SE and E Texas. These strong S winds are really feeding this boundary. What a night we have ahead of us
.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:



This thing seems to be stalling out farther west than initially predicted. This could be a significant flood threat for SE and E Texas. These strong S winds are really feeding this boundary. What a night we have ahead of us


I thought this line would be pass San Antonio and Austin and heading our way coming down I-10
Quoting RitaEvac:
West Texas isn't getting much drought relief from this...and they're the ones who need it most
Quoting TomTaylor:
West Texas isn't getting much drought relief from this...and they're the ones who need it most


Neither is Corpus and points southward, who need it almost equally as much.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I thought this line would be pass San Antonio and Austin and heading our way coming down I-10


Me too. I am pretty shocked. I didn't think this front would stall out like that over Central Texas as it has done; but given these 30-40mph winds straight from the South should have triggered that. None of the models predicted these South winds to affect this front like it has. It will be really interesting to see if this holds together into SE Texas (given these south winds and this moisture, I don't see how it couldn't, unless it is capped).

I will be up all night, thats for sure lol
Approaching 10 inches in western Bandera county!

Quoting 1900hurricane:
Approaching 10 inches in western Bandera county!



and heading for Lake Travis
Very long list of Flash Flood Warnings.

Link
last 59 mins of winter remain
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last 59 mins of winter remain


What winter?
I'm hittin the sack, long day tomm....weather wise
Gonna be water rescues going on by sunrise somewhere
it was horrible no snow warm all the time very little cold now its over in 52 mins
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
824 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

0830 PM TORNADO 2 ESE LACOSTE 29.30N 98.78W
03/19/2012 BEXAR TX EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE OF 6 HOMES ON TED WILLIAMS AND
OBRIEN ROAD...AND LADD ROAD. TWO NON-LIFE THREATENING
INJURIES WERE REPORTED.


0820 PM TORNADO 3 NNW DEVINE 29.19N 98.93W
03/19/2012 MEDINA TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

POWERLINES KNOCKED DOWN AT COUNTY ROAD 664 AND 5710
NEAR DEVINE.


0806 PM TORNADO 2 SSW LYTLE 29.21N 98.81W
03/19/2012 MEDINA TX TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER FLASHES AND OVERTURNED SEMI TRAILER AT I-35 MILE
MARKER 127.




A good bit of hail too.
so long winter that never was 2012
Windsat
Storms going around Waco for now. Time to recharge computer battery.

NASA/MODIS snow cover map for March 3, 2011

End of Winter: How 2012 snow stacks up

NASA/MODIS snow cover map for March 5, 2012
656. wxmod
Quoting 1900hurricane:
This has the possibility to be an exceptionally dangerous situation setting up tonight!



Strong Pacific storm is heading east, will pick up this moisture and shear the heck out of the air-mass. It's going to get worse.

2 pink triangles in the radar map in 654.

...and gone again.
Statement as of 5:41 PM EDT on March 19, 2012

... Record high temperature set at the Knoxville Airport...

a record high temperature of 82 degrees was set at Knoxville Airport today.
This ties the old record of 82 set in 1927.

.Valid today as of 500 PM local time.


Supposed to hit 86 tomorrow
Not a particularly impressive tally for a Moderate Risk day:



Got lucky.
4 MINS OF NON WINTER REMAIN
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not a particularly impressive tally for a Moderate Risk day:



Got lucky.
in the end rain and its slow moving effect is the greatest problem
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
in the end rain and its slow moving effect is the greatest problem


So it appears. The danger of flooding is often underestimated, especially at night.
its official spring has arrived winter is gone till end of november
with that off to bed gonna be another warm day at work in the morning
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its official spring has arrived winter is gone till end of november


Barring the occasional longwave trough/cold front that delivers 50F temperatures to the Gulf Coast, yep.
Quoting HallsCrossRdsTNWx:
Statement as of 5:41 PM EDT on March 19, 2012

... Record high temperature set at the Knoxville Airport...

a record high temperature of 82 degrees was set at Knoxville Airport today.
This ties the old record of 82 set in 1927.

.Valid today as of 500 PM local time.


Supposed to hit 86 tomorrow


HallsCrossRoads?

Really?

Grew up there. Back when that was country....
Townsville wind damage - nothing mini about it

At 5:07am this morning, wild winds of 111km/h were recorded at Townsville airport, while extensive damage was caused in the suburb of Vincent.

"The driving cause for the damaging winds was a southward movement of a low pressure trough across Townsville from the north," said Alex Zadnik, chief meteorologist at Weatherzone.

"Through the early hours of the morning, Townsville was experiencing fresh to strong winds from a general easterly direction. A sudden and violent shift in the wind direction to the north then occurred at 5:07am as the low pressure trough pushed south across the airport, at which time the 111km/h gust occurred," continued Mr Zadnik.

The atmospheric pressure dipped to its lowest point just prior to the wind gust, with a 998.6hPa reading occurring at 5:02am. This marked the movement of the trough across the airport.

A trough is a line marking an area of relatively low pressure but it is also typically a region of converging winds. In this case, it was a point where easterly winds were converging with stronger winds from the north.

This convergence of winds created one of the conditions needed for thunderstorm development and may have also created the necessary ingredient for a tornado to develop.

"It isn't completely clear whether the damage around the suburb of Vincent was the result of a tornado or simply violent winds that can accompany the movement of a trough and thunderstorm activity through a region," said Mr Zadnik

"However, it is worth highlighting that there can be tornadoes in Australia, so there is no need to describe them as 'mini' if they do occur," stated Mr Zadnik.

In meteorology there is a clear scale for the strength of tornadoes, and while those that do occur in Australia don't often reach the strength of those seen in the mid west of the USA, they are tornadoes none-the-less.

In the past two years there have been many notable tornadoes in Australia. The Lennox Head tornadoes in June 2010 caused considerable damage in the coastal NSW town, while a tornado touched down to the northwest of Melbourne on Christmas Day last year. Karratha in WA was also struck by a tornado in February of 2011, in a weather set-up not completely dissimilar to that seen in Townsville this morning.

So how do we measure the strength of tornadoes? The most commonly used scale is the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which measures the level of damage associated with tornado activity.

The scale runs from 0 to 5, with an EF5 tornado being the most powerful, with estimated wind speeds above 322km/h. The more commonly seen tornadoes in Australia are in the EF0 (wind speeds in the 105-137km range) and EF1 (138-178km/h range) categories.

Based on photographs of the damage in the Townsville suburb of Vincent this morning, with roofs torn from buildings, it would seem that if a tornado was responsible, it was approaching this EF1 category.

However, it is possible to get this kind of damage with non-tornado related winds in a severe thunderstorm. If eyewitnesses saw a clearly rotating column of cloud and debris, then it was a tornado and there was nothing mini about it. Townsville has had 1028.6mm(40.5in) of rain since the start of the year and this months total 524.8mm(20.66in).

- Weatherzone
Townsville begins clean-up after freak storm.


SES crews and the Army will help the clean-up in Townsville after a freak storm ripped through the city, as the weather bureau warns of more heavy rain for the region.

of being forced to huddle in their hallways and bathrooms as the storm tore open their homes early this morning.

Premier Anna Bligh and LNP leader Campbell Newman have flown into the city, putting election campaigning on hold as they assess the area.

Ms Bligh has declared the region a disaster zone and says the storm was akin to a "mini-tornado", packing winds of up to 130 kilometres per hour.

About 60 properties have been badly damaged and some buildings have collapsed, with much of the devastation centred on a one-kilometre radius around the suburb of Vincent.

Shane Fayers, his wife and their two children were forced to take shelter in their toilet as the storm destroyed the top floor of their two-storey home.



"Front kitchen's gone, living room, dining room and just the front porch that was all roofed that's gone. It's just smashed everything," he said.

Further down the street Tracy Thomas lost part of her roof and fence.

"It was very scary, but it was all over in a matter of a minute or two minutes. It was just unbelievable," she said.



Erin Matinca, who also lives in Vincent, says she and her flatmate huddled in their hallway after waking to furniture being blown around inside their home.

"We had to shut all the windows and then we went into the hallway because that was the only place that was safe from the windows," she said.

"It was pretty scary. I was more frightened during this than I was during Cyclone Yasi. It was just a lot quicker.

"The whole house was shaking. The whole upstairs was just shaking. The sound was quite horrifying."

Around 7,000 homes are without power and authorities are warning people to stay indoors as there are live powerlines down across the city.

Ms Bligh described the damage as "shocking and devastating" and said the Army would be called in to help.

"When something like this event happens, you just put politics aside for a while and right now I'm not thinking about Campbell Newman or my election campaign. I'm just thinking about this suburb," she said.

She says disaster relief assistance has been made available to residents.



Across north Queensland, residents are dealing with the aftermath of heavy rain overnight, with major flooding in Cairns, Innisfail, Ingham and Mackay.

The SES was forced to mount a number of swift water rescues and received about 140 calls for help from across the region.

EMQ area director Glenn Alderton says some homes have been inundated.

"One house in particular I know had waist-deep water through it. That was in the middle of Cairns actually, so there were a few streets around in some of the suburbs that definitely had water through the homes," he said.

He says crews are still delivering sandbags to residents who have requested them.

"Just in case we see some of that same rainfall in the next few days," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology says more heavy rain is possible later today or tonight as a deep tropical low and a monsoon trough generate the inclement weather.

There have been falls of more than 300 millimetres in Townsville since 9:00am (AEST) on Monday.

Bureau spokesman Jonty Hall says the heaviest falls have been south of Cairns.

"Mission Beach is leading the way at the moment sitting on about 308 millimetres and a little further south Paluma with 274, and lots of other sort of 200-plus rainfall totals at this stage," he said.

"Just right now we're seeing some pretty heavy stuff feeding into the Townsville area as well."
- ABC
City declared a disaster zone

ABOUT 60 homes have been severely damaged by a "mini tornado" that ripped through the western suburbs of Townsville.

Storm cells combined to form a tornado with winds of up to 140 kilometres per hour ripped tin roofs off houses and smashed windows in Vincent, Gulliver, Aitkenvale and Garbutt.

Several businesses on Ingham Road, Garbutt, also suffered severe damage from the intense storm.

Premier Anna Bligh declared a disaster zone for affected suburbs, and promised residents that workers from the Department of Communities would door knock the shattered streets to provide information relief payment.

"We have also activated assistance from the Australian defence (force) and they will be in here to help with the clean up," she said.

Townsville Mayor Les Tyrell said the council was working to repair damaged sewerage systems and advised all residents to try and conserve water for the next 24 hours.

"There is likely to have been some power outages that have affected our water pumps," he said.

"We should be able to get them back online very quickly but everyone should try and conserve water at this stage until we are sure we are running at full capacity."
'Violent shift' in wind caused destruction









TOWNSVILLE may have been struck by an EF1 tornado according to weather experts.

Weatherzone chief meteorologist Alex Zadnik said a "violent shift" in wind direction off the coast at about 5am sparked the freak storm which destroyed homes in Vincent and Aitkenvale and toppled powerlines and trees in neighbouring suburbs.
Mr Zadnik said while a severe thunderstorm may have caused the damage, it could also have been a weak tornado.

"The driving cause for the damaging winds was a southward movement of a low pressure trough across Townsville from the north," he said.

"Through the early hours of the morning, Townsville was experiencing fresh to strong winds from a general easterly direction.

"A sudden and violent shift in the wind direction to the north then occurred at 5:07am as the low pressure trough pushed south across the airport, at which time the 111km/h gust occurred."

The atmospheric pressure dipped to its lowest point just prior to the wind gust, with a 998.6hPa reading occurring at 5:02am.

The storm moved across the city with wind gusts at 11 km/h recorded at Townsville Airport and unconfirmed wind gusts of up to 150 km/h reported at ground zero of the devastation.

Mr Zadnik said the convergence of winds created one of the conditions needed for thunderstorm and may have also created the necessary ingredient for a tornado to develop.

"It isn't completely clear whether the damage around the suburb of Vincent was the result of a tornado or simply violent winds that can accompany the movement of a trough and thunderstorm activity through a region," he said.

"However, it is worth highlighting that there can be tornadoes in Australia, so there is no need to describe them as 'mini' if they do occur."

Mr Zadnik said while tornados that occur in Australia don't often reach the strength of those seen in the mid west of the USA, they are tornadoes none-the-less.

There have been many notable tornadoes in Australia in the past two years.

The Lennox Head tornadoes in June 2010 caused considerable damage in the coastal NSW town, while a tornado touched down to the northwest of Melbourne on Christmas Day last year.

Karratha in WA was also struck by a tornado in February of 2011, in a weather set-up not completely dissimilar to that seen in Townsville this morning.

The scale for a tornado runs from zero to six with an EF6 tornado being the most powerful, with estimated wind speeds above 322km/h. (I didn't know there was EF6?. I have sent a note to the editor)

The more commonly seen tornadoes in Australia are in the EF0 (wind speeds in the 105-137km range) and EF1 (138-178km/h range) categories.
I've been wondering what it means having the dark blue, besides having louder thunder.

Quoting jamesrainier:
I've been wondering what it means having the dark blue.


-64kts wind shear
Quoting jamesrainier:
I've been wondering what it means having the dark blue, besides having louder thunder.



louder thunder?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


louder thunder?


As the map got more blue over the city the thunder got louder here.

I can only speculate what the -64kts wind shear means.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Me too. I am pretty shocked. I didn't think this front would stall out like that over Central Texas as it has done; but given these 30-40mph winds straight from the South should have triggered that. None of the models predicted these South winds to affect this front like it has. It will be really interesting to see if this holds together into SE Texas (given these south winds and this moisture, I don't see how it couldn't, unless it is capped).

I will be up all night, thats for sure lol


From the AFD at 9:30pm yesterday:
THE COLLEGE STATION SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP PRETTY MUCH ERODED. THIS INFORMATION IN ADDITION TO THE RUC FORECAST AND THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE LIEN OUT WEST INDICATES THAT THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE CHANCES FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS BY 08Z.
A lot of heat records are about to be surpassed in New York- and by significant margins. Current forecast calls for a 5 day string of record highs, with probably some record high minimum temperatures mixed in as well. We also set a record high on the 12th.

Poughkeepsie, New York heat records:

March 18: 72 Degrees 2011 (Observed: 73 Degrees 2012)
March 19: 70 Degrees 2010 (Observed: 79 Degrees 2012)
March 20: 74 Degrees 1976 (Current forecast high: 78)
March 21: 70 Degrees 2010 (Current forecast high: 79)
March 22: 71 Degrees 1979 (Current forecast high: 83)

Normal high: Upper 40s. Normal low: Mid 20s
Good morning, all. Looks like another day of some dangerous weather. Please take care all in the way of it. These are the days I would like to stay home with my family to know where everyone is and that they are all right. I'm getting tired of sitting in the hallway trying to keep special ed kindergartners calm and sitting still there.

Everyone have a safe Tuesday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, all. Looks like another day of some dangerous weather. Please take care all in the way of it. These are the days I would like to stay home with my family to know where everyone is and that they are all right. I'm getting tired of sitting in the hallway trying to keep special ed kindergartners calm and sitting still there.

Everyone have a safe Tuesday!
Good morning, hope everything will calm down over there, guess you have yet another day of this. stay safe
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC021-055-149-177-187-287-201230-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0027.120320T1029Z-120320T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
529 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BASTROP COUNTY...
CALDWELL COUNTY...
FAYETTE COUNTY...
GONZALES COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
LEE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT.

* AT 526 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH
WILL KEEPING FLOODING ONGOING FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE
RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER WATER WILL
CONTINUE OVER LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND CROSSINGS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BASTROP...
FLATONIA...GIDDINGS...GONZALES...LA GRANGE...LEXINGTON...
LOCKHART...LULING...SEGUIN...SMITHVILLE...CAMP SWIFT...CEDAR
CREEK...CHEAPSIDE...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE...CISTERN...DIME BOX...
FEDOR...FENTRESS...GERONIMO...KINGSBURY...MULDOON. ..PAIGE...
PALMETO...ROSANKY...ROUND TOP...STAPLES...TANGLEWOOD...WAELDER AND
WYLDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9707 2963 9715 2958 9721 2948 9721
2925 9742 2949 9814 3044 9723 3056 9697
3052 9689 3047 9689 3033 9674 3031 9665
3016 9678 3016 9666 3011 9662

$$
Thanks, Largo. I'm glad my daughter should be able to drive to school before it hits.


Just when I thought the government couldn't get any more ridiculous and invasive of privacy....

TSA Searches Little Boy In Wheelchair

Keeping in mind that radar precipitation estimates can be wildly off: parts of Cooke County, Texas (Gainesville area) have received upwards of a foot of rain; parts of Mclennan County are closing in on a foot; and a widespread area in eastern Oklahoma has received amounts in the > 8" range. And it's still raining in all these locations, and will continue to do so for several more hours; look for some major flooding today.
Incoming Houston!

Lots of lightning with this as well.

Meanwhile, in the GFS's dreamland...

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Incoming Houston!
Well, that's certainly going to make the morning rush hour fun. :-\

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...

VALID 201026Z - 201230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 91 IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12-13Z.

A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
EXTENSIVE EAST TEXAS SQUALL LINE HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED A 40 KT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. FORWARD
PROPAGATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 11-13Z. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS MID/UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE STILL EVOLVING AND SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LIKELY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD...ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING/SLOW MOVING CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
WOW! look at these rainfall totals around San Antonio.

DFW radar est.

Spring 2012: in like a lion, out like a lamb fire-breathing dragon. First: virtually no snow on the ground east of the Rockies except for northern Maine--and that will likely disappear this week.

no snow

Second, expect no relief--at least, not for a few weeks:

heat
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Just when I thought the government couldn't get any more ridiculous and invasive of privacy....

TSA Searches Little Boy In Wheelchair



The government hasn't gotten ridiculous enough.

The failure of imagination of 911 is that every assumed a terrorist had "demands" and was going to haggle for prisoner release or money. They did not. They were suicide bombers.

What you people refuse to realize is there is no other way to stop that sort of attack except to treat everyone as a potential suspect.

You think any fanatic willing to sacrifice their own life to blow up a plane or building wouldn't just as well put a bomb on a child? Think again. The PLO and Hamas and Hezbollah do it all the time in Israel and the surrounding region!

The problem with the 4th amendment "rights" in the modern world is that it makes it impossible for the government to protect your other rights from bastards like Bin Laden and other muslims.

We don't have enough security, and we have far too much immigration both legal and illegal. Why is a country with such high jobless rates and a 1/7 "poverty" rate still accepting immigration?

No rational person would run a nation the way the U.S. government currently operates.
Good Morning. Amazing turn of weather events for the mid-section of the US over the span of a few weeks. From the tornado outbreak a few weeks ago to flooding rain this week. Interesting to note that it was a point of interest a few weeks ago that the lack of snow melt would not cause the usual Spring flooding issues but now we get copious amounts of rain from a weather system.
That picture of a wedge tornado behind powerlines that was posted here last night is NOT from yesterday. It is from 2004 in Kansas.

Video
699. Jax82
Everything is bigger in Texas. This includes Drought and when they get it...Rain.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Amazing turn of weather events for the mid-section of the US over the span of a few weeks. From the tornado outbreak a few weeks ago to flooding rain this week. Interesting to note that it was a point of interest a few weeks ago that the lack of snow melt would not cause the usual Spring flooding issues but now we get copious amounts of rain from a weather system.


The problem is the northern plains haven't seen nearly as much. Infact many places have seen no rain in WEEKS across the upper Midwest. Not a good scenario starting to play out as a very serious drought can be expected over the coming months.



Meanwhile the eastern half of TX should be out of the drought after this rain event.

SE US is in need of rain bad. Good news is that some is expected later this week & into the weekend. Our drought could get a little worse before getting better as the summer rains move in which hopefully is early this year.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


The problem is the northern plains haven't seen nearly as much. Infact many places have seen no rain in WEEKS across the upper Midwest. Not a good scenario starting to play out as a very serious drought can be expected over the coming months.





Yeah. I left out the part about the persistent drought issues when Texas and the sections of the mid-west have been parched for months. I could be wrong but I suspect that a "slow" snow melt (and the accompanying river flooding over a period of weeks) is better than a one time rain/flash flood event in terms of agriculture issues. Either way, with a lack of appreciable snow melt, I do not know where the water is going to come from for them over the next several months.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yeah. I left out the part about the persistent drought issues when Texas and the sections of the mid-west have been parched for months. I could be wrong but I suspect that a "slow" snow melt (and the accompanying river flooding over a period of weeks) is better than a one time rain/flash flood event in terms of agriculture issues. Either way, with a lack of appreciable snow melt, I do not know where the water is going to come from for them over the next several months.


The problem is the rain that TX & OK have been getting hasn't made it much farther north. Which your right where is their water going to come from as we enter summer as they don't have the luxury of daily afternoon summer thunderstorms as we do across the SE US.
Quoting RTSplayer:


We don't have enough security, and we have far too much immigration both legal and illegal. Why is a country with such high jobless rates and a 1/7 "poverty" rate still accepting immigration?



I dont see a problem with legal immigration, only the illegal. And the jobless rate has nothing to do with immigration.
The Southeast, as shown on your second map, is also in trouble and we could see a serious wildfire issue as well at some point. Interesting from that map that I took a long Sunday drive with my Wife on Sunday along the FL/AL/GA tri-state area, clearly shown in deep red on your map, and I did end up stopping an officer and letting him know about a "cigarette" fire brewing several miles behind us. We were the only ones on a long stretch of hwy North of Lake Seminole on the GA/AL border and we passed the burning bushes right next to the hwy..................
Loudest 2.25 inches of rain I have ever received, sounded like 5 or 6 here outside of Buda Tx. If Lake Travis gets another 10 rains like this Lake will fill up. I think some areas of Texas got 10 inches or more last night.
Good morning everyone. Just dropped in for a quick check on what is going on weatherwise. Weather has been just about perfect here except for the lack of rain.
It is the springtime of my loving - the second season I am to know
You are the sunlight in my growing - so little warmth I've felt before.
It isn't hard to feel me glowing - I watched the fire that grew so low.

It is the summer of my smiles - flee from me Keepers of the Gloom.
Speak to me only with your eyes. It is to you I give this tune.
Ain't so hard to recognize - These things are clear to all from
time to time.

Talk Talk - I've felt the coldness of my winter
I never thought YOU would ever go. I cursed the gloom that set upon us...
But I know that I love you so

These are the seasons of emotion and like the winds they rise and fall
This is the wonder of devotion - I seek the torch we all must hold.
This is the mystery of the quotient - Upon us all a little rain must fall...It's just a little rain...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, that's certainly going to make the morning rush hour fun. :-\

Looking at these, I would say very fun.


More Houston cams here.
Good morning all. I see that the weather has really ramped up in Texas. Please keep safe and alert today. "Turn around, don't drown" is the best advice to heed. I thought that blob of moisture would give us some rain in the keys. Alas, no such luck. Though the rest of the nation is warm, this is exactly our average weather in SE Florida. Of course, here in the Keys we have the advantage of being "out to sea" and get the sea breezes to make the sunshine comfortable. Everyone in the watch zones take care. My thoughts and prayers are with all the people adversely affected by the weather today.
Good Morning...Anyone hear a Number of how many tornadaos there was yesterday!
What a day we have ahead of us here in Houston!
Devine,TX Tornado from 3/19/2012.


Police said the communities of Devine and Natalia appeared to be the hardest hit. The San Antonio Express reported that several homes suffered damage, and some people were trapped in mobile homes for a period of time.


FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC423-459-499-201600-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0007.120320T1257Z-120320T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
757 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SMITH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WHITEHOUSE...TYLER...
UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GILMER...
WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINNSBORO...MINEOLA...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* AT 750 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE
TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY ONGOING
FLOODING COULD ESCALATE...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
MOUNTAIN...ROSEWOOD...QUITMAN...PLEASANT GROVE...HOARD...HAWKINS...
HAINESVILLE...GOLDEN AND BIG SANDY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 9515 3291 9515 3291 9481 3257 9491
3252 9499 3214 9499 3214 9547 3220 9547
3224 9549 3229 9546 3236 9546 3249 9560
3269 9560 3272 9564 3295 9567

$$

12
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ENTERING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WEST. SO
FAR TIMING HAS BEEN ON TRACK WITH PROGS. AS SUCH NOT REALLY PLAN-
NING ON A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST/GRIDS WITH THIS
PACKAGE. STILL LOOKING FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINS TODAY WITH THE INCOMING SQUALL LINE. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL ALSO LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING AS EVERYTHING MOVES
OFF TO THE ENE. HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE
STORMS WILL BE LINGERING IN/AROUND THE RED RIVER THESE NEXT 24HR
OR SO. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH LEFT-
OVER BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD LEAD TO MORE PCPN..AND
PERHAPS SLOWER MOVING PCPN ON WEDS. ATTM NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
WITH KEEPING (OR EXTENDING THE FFA) THROUGH WEDS BUT IT COULD BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY.

THINGS EXPECTED TO QUIET DOWN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AS THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF THE E/NE AND A RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. A SLOWLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW TO
HELP SE TX SLIP INTO A MORE BENIGN PATTERN OF MODERATE TEMPS/LOW
TO NO POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 41
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good Morning...Anyone hear a Number of how many tornadaos there was yesterday!


3 straight days of 25C heat is unheard of for March. In fact, in Montreal's case, never has it seen 3 straight days above 20C, let alone 25C! Occurrences that are very rare still for April.

Yet, here it is...

Forecast for today and the next 2 days. Many places are expecting a rain-snow mix over the weekend and will remind everyone that we are still in March.

Toronto, ONT Record March High: 25.6C on the 28th, 1945.
25C, 25C, 25C

Ottawa, ONT Record March High: 26.7C on the 29th, 1946
25C, 27C, 27C

Montreal, QUE Record March High: 25.6C on the 28th, 1945.
24C, 26C, 26C

Sherbrooke, QUE Record March High: 23.0C on the 30th, 1977
25C, 26C, 26C

Even much farther north....

Normals of 0C, -12C
Val D'or, QUE Record March High: 17.6C on the 14th, 1995
21C, 23C, 15C

Timmins, ONT Record March High: 19.9C on the 15th, 1990
23C. 26C, 14C

Extending in the Maritimes...

Fredericton, NB Record March High: 22.2C on the 30th, 1962
22C, 25C, 24C

Moncton, NB Record March High: 18.9C on the 29th, 1945
22C, 26C, 22C

Halifax, Nova Scotia
16C, 21C, 21C
A Atmosphere with "Loaded Dice"..is geared more toward chaos as it warms.
The Ratio of a 1F degree increase in Global temps, produces a 4% increase in Global WV.

More WV available, increases the ability of Chaos to reign.

Welcome to the "New World"

..brought to you by, well..u know.

Us.
Quoting SteveDa1:
3 straight days of 25C+ heat is unheard of for March. Very rare still for April. Yet, here it is...
Absolutely amazing.

Found this for International Falls:

hot, hot, hot
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
What a day we have ahead of us here in Houston!
Mornin Dave. CRAS model has your area getting at least one more shot of heavy rain after this one...00 CRAS wvbt Image.. Loop..Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:




With that, do you think the Percentages yesterday from SPC was correct, too High, or too Low?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Absolutely amazing.

Found this for International Falls:

hot, hot, hot
I heard someone say that the low temps would have surpassed the record high temps in certain areas..Mother Nature showing her might.
Quoting hydrus:
Mornin Dave. CRAS model has your area getting at least one more shot of heavy rain after this one...00 CRAS wvbt Image.. Loop..Link


Well that is fantastic. If this pans out, looks like they will need to extend that flood watch!
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Well that is fantastic. If this pans out, looks like they will need to extend that flood watch!


Yep the dip keeps coming and the rain keeps falling one after another it appears.
Quoting TampaSpin:


With that, do you think the Percentages yesterday from SPC was correct, too High, or too Low?


Too(edit)high, as their weren't many supercells that developed out ahead of the main line. It was almost as if the atmosphere was capped some.
I wonder if this front is going to stall a little farther west than they thought. Is the CRAS model pretty accurate? Are any other models following that trend?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Too low, as their weren't many supercells that developed out ahead of the main line. It was almost as if the atmosphere was capped some.


Yes the atmosphere was capped pretty well. The storms fought through some of it but couldn't completely get through the cap as they thought.
Quoting Patrap:
It is the springtime of my loving - the second season I am to know
You are the sunlight in my growing - so little warmth I've felt before.
It isn't hard to feel me glowing - I watched the fire that grew so low.

It is the summer of my smiles - flee from me Keepers of the Gloom.
Speak to me only with your eyes. It is to you I give this tune.
Ain't so hard to recognize - These things are clear to all from
time to time.

Talk Talk - I've felt the coldness of my winter
I never thought YOU would ever go. I cursed the gloom that set upon us...
But I know that I love you so

These are the seasons of emotion and like the winds they rise and fall
This is the wonder of devotion - I seek the torch we all must hold.
This is the mystery of the quotient - Upon us all a little rain must fall...It's just a little rain...


Thanks Pat! As I "get the Led out" this morning I have awoke to 1.5" of fluffy white...Spokane, WA. Amazing what the first day of spring will do. :)
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Yes the atmosphere was capped pretty well. The storms fought through some of it but couldn't completely get through the cap as they thought.


Wasn't it only a 10% chance for Tornado's....that is a small percentage as it was. Thought i would get the experts opioion as i was just not sure. Thanks!
Common site this year in Houston.

I am wondering what happened yesterday at the SPC. They are usually quite good with their forecast but yesterday the were way off: only two tornadoes for a moderate risk area and high probability for tornadoes in the watch areas that did not materialized.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Well that is fantastic. If this pans out, looks like they will need to extend that flood watch!
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Well that is fantastic. If this pans out, looks like they will need to extend that flood watch!
This model has not finished running, but does not have the low moving at all for almost three days...Link
In our neck of the woods (S Wisc)low temp this morning was 59, our average low is 26 and average high is 46. We are supposed to get up to 82 this afternoon. And tomorrow much of the same. Bloodroot is in full bloom and lilacs are leafed out........... Apple producers in our area are getting quite concerned.
Quoting hydrus:
This model has not finished running, but does not have the low moving at all for almost three days...Link


Wow...
Quoting hydrus:
This model has not finished running, but does not have the low moving at all for almost three days...Link


That looks pretty bad for SE Texas, Louisiana looks like it will get the brunt of it though. At least that's how I am seeing it..
Quoting Tango01:
I am wondering what happened yesterday at the SPC. They are usually quite good with their forecast but yesterday the were way off: only two tornadoes for a moderate risk area and high probability for tornadoes in the watch areas that did not materialized.


SPC was right on. Don't forget, moderate risk means a moderate risk for severe weather. This includes hail, wind, flood, and tornado reports within the risk area. The tornado watch that was in efect was exactly that, a watch. You seem disappointed with the outcome from yesterday. Seems to be a common "gloom and doom" theme on the blog.
Quoting lilElla:
In our neck of the woods (S Wisc)low temp this morning was 59, our average low is 26 and average high is 46. We are supposed to get up to 82 this afternoon. And tomorrow much of the same. Bloodroot is in full bloom and lilacs are leafed out........... Apple producers in our area are getting quite concerned.
brief cold shot but warming will be quick to rtn if anything new growth will be slowed

Wow not to far back Texas was the drought capital of the US. everyday temps we in the high 80`s and often into the 90`s but recently Texas has received more rainfall than most(if not all states in the US). Ahh the wonders of climate and weather :P
Quoting Chucktown:


SPC was right on. Don't forget, moderate risk means a moderate risk for severe weather. This includes hail, wind, flood, and tornado reports within the risk area. The tornado watch that was in efect was exactly that, a watch. You seem disappointed with the outcome from yesterday. Seems to be a common "gloom and doom" theme on the blog.


I disagree. The watches were indicating high risk of several tornadoes (the watches were ranging from 50% to 70%) so there way off with this. I am referring to facts here not "gloom and doom" feelings. Besides, you get far more hail and wind reports under slight risk conditions that what was reported in TX yesterday so it is not a matter of observing hail, wind, floods and tornadoes, but how many were observed in the area indicated with moderate risk. Moreover, the moderate risk area was indicating a higher than 40 % or 50 % chances (I believe so) of these events within a 25 mile radius of a given point. If you look at the reports you will see that between Austin and Waco along the I-35 corridor, this didn't happen. My point is that the probabilities were wrong and a much lower probability (low risk) should probably have been indicated in the forecast. Again, this is not "gloom and doom" these are just facts and statistical data.
#742 KEEPEROFTHEGATE
Thank you - averages seem to mean notta this season, does this also mean that "the odds of" are no longer pertinent?
New Blog
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I dont see a problem with legal immigration, only the illegal. And the jobless rate has nothing to do with immigration.


Oh really?

So you have millions of people unemployed, not counting the ones who have "given up" looking for work, but we still take in over a million immigrants per year...

You don't see how jobless rate and immigration are related? For every million immigrants you take in, assuming average family size 4, then you need a half million new jobs just to break even.

Not only is it stupid, it's really immoral.
Quoting Tango01:


I disagree. The watches were indicating high risk of several tornadoes (the watches were ranging from 50% to 70%) so there way off with this. I am referring to facts here not "gloom and doom" feelings. Besides, you get far more hail and wind reports under slight risk conditions that what was reported in TX yesterday so it is not a matter of observing hail, wind, floods and tornadoes, but how many were observed in the area indicated with moderate risk. Moreover, the moderate risk area was indicating a higher than 40 % or 50 % chances (I believe so) of these events within a 25 mile radius of a given point. If you look at the reports you will see that between Austin and Waco along the I-35 corridor, this didn't happen. My point is that the probabilities were wrong and a much lower probability (low risk) should probably have been indicated in the forecast. Again, this is not "gloom and doom" these are just facts and statistical data.


Actually, I have checked SPC's past issued outlooks and their verification image and they are in agreement of my point. If you look at the severe hail probability for the 1630 outlook, it is indicating 45% along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to NE TX. If you then look at the verification image you'll see that there are only two reports of severe hail. Same issues can be found with observations not meeting expectations (probabilities) both for tornadoes and wind. SPC forecast does not include floods as you mentioned.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Oh really?

So you have millions of people unemployed, not counting the ones who have "given up" looking for work, but we still take in over a million immigrants per year...

You don't see how jobless rate and immigration are related? For every million immigrants you take in, assuming average family size 4, then you need a half million new jobs just to break even.

Not only is it stupid, it's really immoral.


They are not as clear-cut related as you think they are. Most of the people looking for work are not looking for the same jobs as immigrants typically take, especially the illegal ones. There are many places hiring, but they are all minimum wage jobs that will end up paying worse than unemployment benefits. No one who has worked at even the median salary will take those part-time jobs if they pay less than unemployment but cause you to be dropped from unemployment. It is also argued by many economists that without people willing to take those jobs (and even jobs that pay less), the wages would be forced higher to attract works, thus raising the prices, and putting more people out of work.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

KENS 5 TV - Viewer photo from HWY 90 near Bexar Co. Texas earlier tonight.


FYI... I should mention that it seems as if numerous people discussing this photo in other places, indicating that it was a picture taken in 2004 and is not of the 3/19/2012 tornado near San Antonio.

With the quick ease by which people can tout fake photographs on the internet these days especially on un-reviewed TV photo albums, we should use this as a reminder to take these things with a grain of salt.