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Tornado smashes small Kansas town; major tornado outbreak today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:30 PM GMT on May 05, 2007

A terrible scene--played out all too often in 2007--happened again last night in Greensburg, Kansas. The sirens sounded, warning of an advancing tornado, but the black of night hid the 3/4-mile wide monster twister approaching from the southwest. The residents of this small town of 1600 had time to find safe shelter, but the tornado was so powerful, that even sturdy buildings could not protect the residents. The tornado destroyed or heavily damaged 90% of the town, destroying the central business district, city hall, and the high school. Eight people died, plus one more person 30 miles away. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The ten deaths yesterday bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 69 so far this year, three more than the toll for all of last year. For those interested, I've saved a 1 Mb animation of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado (thanks to Wunderblogger redefined for saving these!) The animations show some very strong rotation and odd swirling behavior that I don't recall ever seeing in a tornado radar animation before.

Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts.


Figure 1. Radar image of the strom that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007.

Major severe weather outbreak today expected
More strong (EF2 and EF3) or violent (EF4 and EF5) tornadoes are possible again tonight, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put a large area of Kansas and Nebraska under its highest risk level, "High Risk". This is the fourth time this year that SPC has issued its "High Risk" forecast. The last time it did so, on April 24, an EF3 tornado struck the Mexico/Texas border near Eagle Pass, killing ten (the "High Risk" area defined by SPC was actually a bit north of where the tornado struck). Tornadoes have already been reported in Colorado and Nebraska today, so tune into our severe weather page and radar page to follow the outbreak.

Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8am EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. It will bring strong winds and high surf to the Carolina coast for several days early next week, as it meanders offshore. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. However, none of the models are showing this, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming next week at about 10%.

Jeff Masters
LP Supercell with Wallcloud
LP Supercell with Wallcloud
Small "Left Split" LP Supercell with blocky wallcloud in Oklahoma. Mike Theiss - All Rights Reserved
Lightning 5-4-07
Lightning 5-4-07

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.Masters....bad stuff.
Thanks for the post Dr. Masters. My own running total of tornado fatalities takes us to 67 for the year, but I am sure I am the one who made the mistake. I'm afraid this will be the deadliest year for tornadoes since 1974.
Arlene in 1981 is the only tropical storm I could find that formed in the first 10 days of May.
Hurricane Able of 1951 looks more interesting and exceptional the more I think about it
In a subtle sign of the approaching season and warming water temps, last night was the first night so far this year that we held above 70 for our overnight low.
Dr. Masters You have WUmail
Thanks Dr Masters on your updates and the information. It was shocking to learn of this destruction this morning.
hey guys
Tornado right now in NE, northeast of North Platte:

[deleted the image as it apparently was being updated real-time]
Hey Kris :) How are things down there today? We seem to be having a forecast bust here, it was predicted to be in the lower 80s and mostly sunny outside of any storms. But instead it is 73 with a good northeast breeze.
Let's hope for a good hurricane season with hopefully no deaths and minimal destruction.
All's good,thanks for asking.
(2pm Discussion)

ATLANTIC...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO BE THE SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO A 1012 MB SFC LOW LOCATED
NEAR 27N64W. THIS...ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...IS SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-65W.
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS AREA...VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE MAINLY E WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST DURING THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NOW ALONG 31N WEST OF 60W. THIS SFC LOW MAY
REACH STORM FORCE WINDS AS IT MAKES A LOOPING TYPE MOTION OFF
THE SE US.

The UKMET has the low deeping as it moves SW but then weaking as it approaches the florida coast.


ggg
Adrian,check my comments in Bob's blog.Too lazy to repost them here.
Here a view of the massive tornado from last night.

ggg
Indeed Kris...

From MLB NWS:

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO THE POSITION/
STRENGTH OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THOUGH THIS
IS TO BE EXPECTED CONSIDERING ITS ANOMALOUS NATURE. IT IS QUITE RARE
FOR STORMS TO REACH THIS INTENSITY...THIS FAR SOUTH...THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LATEST NAM-WRF SUGGESTS THE MEANDERING LOW WILL INITIALLY
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD...REACHING THE LATITUDE OF JAX EARLY TUE...
BEFORE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SC COAST. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD RESULT IN A WINDIER DAY ACROSS ECFL...THOUGH STILL DRY WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LATEST GFS IS FURTHER NORTH AND NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM-WRF. IN TERMS OF CYCLONE PHASE...THE NAM-WRF
ALSO INDICATES THE CYCLONE MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE FROM AN ASYMMETRIC
COLD CORE TO A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE SYSTEM
.
Here's one view of the hook echo from my WT software i caught lastnight.

ggg
18. MZT
It's funny how the advisory does not say "tropical storm" ... it would get the mainstream news too excited, too early ... But "symmetric warm core system" is sufficient to alert just the cognoscenti. :-)

As for the tornado radars... Man, that is one naaaasty hook echo!
The CMC still shows a tropical storm developing:


The NAM is far more impressive; not only warm-core but very deep as well:


And much stronger as well.
I hope from the developing system that South Florida can at least get some rain. It may do a hurricane jean loop.
Uh-oh...

The GFS is also showing another area of low pressure but of more importance i noticed a gradual decrease in windshear.See here
Greensburg is not very far down the road from Wichita. I guess I will be watching the radar here tonight.
SSTs are very low...so i think it will not be tropical.
Lots of warnings in effect in Kansas...
The 12z nogaps also makes the storm very strong.Link
SSTs are very low...so i think it will not be tropical.

Wasn't a problem for Epsilon, Zeta, Delta, Vince and Gordon (Gordon reintensified to a Cat 2 over ~75 degree water)... some of which were over even colder SSTs. 80 degrees is only needed for purely tropical systems that develop from tropical waves; cold-core lows can become tropical over much colder water. Also, look at this:

28. MZT
Remember that it's the temperature gradient that matters, not just the surface seas temperature. One factor at play, is that we've had a bit of a cool wave sweep down into NC the last few days. I turned my heat back on last night... kind of unusual for May.

The SST's may be lower than classic tropical setups right now, but they are sufficiently warm to sustain a shallow subtropical storm. Think "Zeta" -- only early season, instead of late.
I've had my a/c on for weeks now in Savannah - it's been in the high 80s, low 90s.
Right now the NAM and the WRF having getting to warm-core.

Here is the WRF at 78 hrs and 84 hrs.

78hrs

ffff

84hrs

ssd
Remember that it's the temperature gradient that matters, not just the surface seas temperature

Exactly. That is what the maximum potential intensity map is based on - SSTs and the atmosphere's thermodynamic profile (you may also remember that one reason why Epsilon lasted for so long is that the upper atmosphere was unusually cold; the shallowness of convection also meant that upper-level shear did not affect it as much; lower-mid-level shear was more important).
Hey guys, Andy Hagen here. I think I know who some of you guys are. I'm a Penn State junior from Miami. Anyways...I have been following the models very closely over the past day or 2 and the NAM/WRF along with a few other models are giving a chance for a warm core tropical cyclone to develop. The low level temperature forecasts as well as the 1000-500 mb thicknesses point toward the cyclone becoming more warm-core with time, out to around 60 hours. Let's not jump out of our shoes yet though.
Today's outbreak is becoming dangerous, by this I mean by warnings like this, saying that it is extremely dangerous and life threatening, or large and destructive tornadoes:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
351 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BON HOMME COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 351 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 20
MILES SOUTH OF TYNDALL IN KNOX COUNTY NEBRASKA...OR ABOUT 28 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF YANKTON... MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TABOR AROUND 420 PM CDT...
TYNDALL AROUND 425 PM CDT...
SCOTLAND AROUND 440 PM CDT...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE
COVER NOW.
The worst still awaits. Those messages will be repeated countless times this afternoon and evening.

I'd say it is very possible we had our first EF5 last night...
That low pressure system off the SE US coast could be a bad thing if it helps fan the flames on the Georgia & Florida fires. It will be a very big disaster if we get strong winds without rain. We need this thing to make landfall over either Florida or Georgia & to dump 2-3 inches of rain.
STORM!!!
so your professional opinion on all this?
Here is some raw footage of the Greensburg tornado, maybe this was an EF 5 Tornado.

http://www.kake.com/breakingnews/7347256.html
the low...
Wow. This will be a hell of an outbreak.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

SDC053-052200-
/O.CON.KFSD.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070505T2200Z/
GREGORY SD-
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
GREGORY COUNTY...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BURKE...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPRINGVIEW...MOVING NORTH AT
55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HERRICK AROUND 435 PM CDT...
GREGORY...BURKE AROUND 440 PM CDT...
DIXON AROUND 450 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE
COVER NOW.
Here's some tornado vorticies, I just saved on radar, in South Dakota...I hope Howard got lucky.
the film from Greensburg is devastating! My heart and prayers go out to the whole town, and Greensburg looks like a victim of a nuclear bomb!

tree's were stripped bare, and confirmed at least 10 dead so far.... undoubtedly will be more! Once again, I am awed by the awesome power of mother nature!
There were several tornadoes around here yesterday, although they are nothing compared to the ones in Kansas.
You're da bomb, StormW!

Hope everyone is safe out there with the tornados...

Looks like we may be getting a thunderstorm here in Miami. We really need the rain.

They're now saying that town was 100% destroyed. That's incredible. They're also saying maybe F5. Isn't it a bit early in the season for storms that strong?
Looks like this might be the worst outbreak since the 2003 week long outbreak.
They're also saying maybe F5. Isn't it a bit early in the season for storms that strong?

Not at all... F5s have occurred in almost every month of the year (list)
No this is the peak of tornado season, from April til June.
A little info. "Storm in May" is one of the horses riding in the Kentuky derby today.I wonder if it is a sign?
Theres hail...thats a new percentage for me.

1
From Charleston NWS:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE RGN THIS WEEK BRINGING A VARIETY OF
HAZARDS THE PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING HIGH WINDS...DANGEROUS
SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR OFF THE
SC/NC COAST LTE TNGT INTO SUN AS THE SUPPORTING UPR TROF DIGS DOWN
THE ERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF JUST E OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE 05/12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BEING THE ERN MOST
OUTLIER OF THE VARIOUS MODEL PKGS WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS TRACK WOULD RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW
CLOSER TO THE GA/SC COAST WITH THE LOW BEING CNTRD ABT 200 E OF SAV
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MANUAL HPC PROGS. OBVIOUSLY THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM.
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS MODELS
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION HYBRID...WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PHASE DIAGRAMS OUT
OF FSU.

Theres hail...thats a new percentage for me.

I have seen 60% many times before; I have even been in 60% several times before. Also, on April 7, 2006, there was, believe it or not, a 60% risk for tornadoes (see my blog, the last few comments; apparantly I am the only one who watches the outlooks regularly because everybody thinks that a 60% risk is unprecendented).
MichaelSTL
Not at all... F5s have occurred in almost every month of the year (list)
weathergeek5
No this is the peak of tornado season, from April til June.


Oh, OK. Thanks!
Dr. Masters, thank you for mentioning that swirling on the radar. When I saw it last night, I was awed. I haven't seen anything like it & that hook echo but I figured it was just that I haven't seen enough of them. Someone else mentioned the huge hook echo in this blog. Was it unusual also? I mean how large it was & how defined. A couple of times, it almost looked as if it was going to curl around like an eye.
^^^
That hook echo was comparable to the Okie City tornado.
Storms not verey far from Greensburg rithg now. Gonna be a long night here in Wichita.
One thing to add - I don't remember seeing a 60% risk before last year (also, the SPC changed the probabilities early last year to reflect the increasing number of severe weather reports over the past few years; basically, the percentages were increased).
DocBen, are you from a local station here in Wichita?
RL3ALO, I didn't look close at the radar OK. Once I saw it on radar over OK; I started calling our family & friends that one of us was getting hit that night, here in Wichita. It was my Best Friend. They just made it to the shelter.
Pretty nasty cell approaching Lincoln, NE
66. MZT
That small disturbance off the coast of Wilmington has been drifting to the SE today. So I do think the models indications a "retrograding" motion to that low, may be borne out.

I don't know if my eyes are playing tricks on me, but I think I can see some vortexing a little bit west of the current cloud blob.
saved - no, not with any of the stations. Just watching it all closely.

http://weather.kansas.com/US/KS/Wichita.html
68. MZT
That certainly is a massive system in the middle of the country, though. It looks like Kansas, Nebraska, South and North Dakota, and Minnesota will all be getting pummeled tonight.
Another rotating cell right on line to approach Greensburg.
DocBen, That's all I do. I am embarrassed to ask questions most of the time because I have not been at this for long. Everyone on here seems to know so much. My head spins at times, reading the blog but I am trying to learn. I am more comfortable asking tornado questions because I have watched them longer & been around them most of my life. I am trying to learn.
Tornado reports:

1723 21 S ARNOLD CUSTER NE 4112 10019 CORRECTION...SPOTTERS HAD TRACKED TORNADO THAT TOUCHED DOWN AT 1223 PM CDT THAT LIFTED BY 1255 PM CDT. POWER LINES DOWN 5 MILES NORTH OF COUNTY LINE ON HWY 47. TRACKED (LBF)

1750 3 S ARNOLD CUSTER NE 4138 10019 SPOTTERS HAD BEEN TRACKING TORNADO THAT LIFTED BY 1255 PM CDT. POWER LINES DOWN SOUTH OF THE TOWN ARNOLD. (LBF)

1757 3 E STERLING LOGAN CO 4065 10316 REPORTED BY SHERIFF (BOU)

1853 5 E DUNNING BLAINE NE 4183 10001 TRNADO ALONG HIWAY 2 NEAR RAIL ROAD RADIO TOWER...POSSIBLE AUTO ACCIDENT CAUSED BY TORNADO...INJURIES/FATALITIES UNKNOWN (LBF)

2022 18 S AINSWORTH BROWN NE 4229 9986 SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF TURN OFF TOWARDS ELSMERE ON HWY 7 MOVING NORTH. (LBF)

2048 4 ESE NIOBRARA KNOX NE 4273 9796 (OAX)

2104 SANTEE KNOX NE 4284 9785 (OAX)

2148 4 S BYERS PRATT KS 3773 9887 BRIEF TORNADO...DEBRIS CLOUD WAS EVIDENT BELOW A FUNNEL. (DDC)

2210 DIMOCK HUTCHINSON SD 4348 9799 COMFIRMED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT IN DIMOCK AREA (FSD)

2220 3 SE MITCHELL DAVISON SD 4370 9799 MOVING NORTH (FSD)

2224 1 N BLOOMFIELD KNOX NE 4261 9765 (OAX)
My prayers to people in Greenburg & all who are in the path of these storms. They are showing no mercy. The people in Greensburg can't handle another hit. There is hardly anthing left now but the shelters they are in.
74. MZT
I've driven through that part of Kansas. Once you get west of Pratt, you begin to feel like you're really out of the wooded part of Kansas, and out on the prairie. There's not much around to block the wind.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
539 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
YANKTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF YANKTON...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
YANKTON AROUND 545 PM CDT...
UTICA...MISSION HILL AROUND 550 PM CDT...
MAYFIELD AROUND 605 PM CDT...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE
COVER NOW. SOFTBALL SIZED HAIL AS WELL AS MULTIPLE TORNADOES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN KNOX COUNTY NEBRASKA
.

A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING NOW.
MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES ARE NOT SAFE.
It isn't early for these storms here but isn't early for this strong a storm in the Northern States?
This is prime time for tornados in OK, KS, NE. The peak season for the Dakotas and upper mid-west is late-May into June. But this is nothing irregular. May is home for major outbreaks.
Thanks RL3AO. I thought the Dakotas, Michigan & Western were more active in July.
No problem saved - we are all learning something. When you quit learning you die.

As noted, this is the time of year. I always keep track of where the grandkids are - they are the ones that matter.
The Southern U.S. can be active year round with peaks in April thru June. Northern U.S. is from March to November with peaks in Late-May thru July. (I think)
Large tornado is 5 miles west of Yankton, SD...moving north at 40 mph.
This is not what you want to hear:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
559 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN MINER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTERN SANBORN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHWESTERN HANSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 559 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH
OF FEDORA...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MITCHELL...MOVING NORTH
AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FEDORA...ARTESIAN...ROSWELL AROUND 610 PM CDT...
CARTHAGE AROUND 625 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ACROSS HANSON COUNTY. THIS
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. TAKE COVER
NOW.
DocBen, I agree absolutely. We have too many grandkids & greats so we call the kids & let them go from there.
Good to know another Wichitan, I was feeling outnumbered by the Floridians. LOL Only kidding.
Time to get back to stormwatching.
84. MZT
These are fast moving tornadoes too. Not much time to get out of the way.
Does anyone want to pop into a weather chat?
...most distinct hook echo I've seen...think the largest as well.
alright...need somebody to break down some definitions for me. What is the difference between tropical, sub-tropical, and extratropical?

thanks
Tropical= warm-core low
Extra-tropical= cold-core low
Sub-tropical= warm-core with characteristics of both.
On the 18z GFS it kinda deepens the low a bit but keeps of the coast.Also noticeing there might be something to contend with coming up from the caribbean moving north.
Greensburg might get another tornado...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 637 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HAVILAND...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF GREENSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH
.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAVILAND...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 54 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110 AND 121.
Thats just terrible MSTL - there probably still searching the rubble there too.
Evening all.

Those poor folks are getting pounded again in the Greensburg area.

Looks like the SE coast is going to be out there for quite a while.
we got some pretty strong storms 2 days ago here in south louisiana its good to get a chance at some nice weather i pray for the people being affected tonight by these storms
This is really bad...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSC097-060015-
/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070506T0015Z/
KIOWA KS-
651 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
KIOWA COUNTY...

AT 649 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
GREENSBURG
...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENSBURG...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 54 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 117.
TORNADO EMERGENCY!!!
(Greensburg had one last night)

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

KSC009-060015-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070506T0015Z/
BARTON KS-
700 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BARTON COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

***A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GREAT BEND***

AT 658 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR GREAT BEND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN BARTON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF GREAT BEND.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!
Incredable video of yesterday's Ellis county tornado
Hopefully they have that area pretty well cleared out STL.


Interesting to note that the 18z Ukmet run has the SE low going warm core also. You can find the FSU phase evolution page which shows the core analysis for each model from the Quick Links page. The Storm Prediction Center as well as a overview of the models link have recently been added to this page along with several other useful links.
Guys here a high resolution image i saved on my radar from last nights amazing hook echo.

ffff
Here is the link showing the image from the SRV I captured last night for the local news station regarding Greensburg.

SRV
Great video skye. TWC is showing clips of that.
102. RL3AO
Just missed.

AT 702 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KIOWA COUNTY...OR 4 MILES EAST OF GREENSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.
this weather is just crazy!!!
We need some help with the warnings.
Evening BT, good to see ya
good evening stormjunkie. I guess I never been on here before during a tornado outbreak...but this is nuts.

I'm just trying to corral everyone into one place!
109. MZT
Great video of a tornado yesterday from the posts above

May 4 Oklahoma Tornado
Yep BT...It is really rough out there.
im kind of excited to see what develops off of carolina. This is blowin' my mind that we could (yes i know its only like 10%) have a named storm in early May
Hey Everyone - just checkin in to see what is going on before I check out for bed. Any more news on anything?
Evening mel, good to see you.

That would be crazy BT. Not even late May. Like you said though, it is highly unlikely. It would have to move just right over the Gulf Stream and stay in low enough shear IMHO.
114. ryang
Evening all...
Hey SJ.. I tried what you said about link thingy but , I still cant get it to work LOL
Good to see you too SJ - just let whatever it is bring rain to us so we can get the fire under control. I'm tired of seeing smoke - being from Southern CA originally, and being in the fires a couple of years ago, I always freak when I see smoke. Never forget seeing it come down the mountain towards out house and saying "when it gets HERE", we'll leave. And then moving the mark a thousand times until we were told to get out. I would love for this fire to go away or be somewhat extinguished just to give us piece of mind!
how much longer till our next model runs come out?
Won't start coming out till around midnight BT. It will be the 00Z runs.

I hope it works out for all those who need some fires doused mel!

Hey hank, you should be able to type this in your comment box and post it and get a link. Don't copy and paste it though.

a href="http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html" target="_blank"StormJunkie.com Quick Links/a
Intersting NAM model 18z 84 hr..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_084.shtml
I give up SJ lol I need it explained to me in more detail I guess or else Im just to dumb lol
Naw, hank, it just has not been explained right yet. Once you get it, it's easy ☺

a href="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_084.shtml" target="_blank"84hr Nam/a

This needs to be typed as this < in the above line. Do that and you get this...

84hr Nam
Yipes at the tornado warnings this evening. I thought Dr M was being a little bit cautious - with the storms not being all that much volume wise -- but it really looks to be a serious outbreak. Just about every storm has an associated tornado.

OMG check the storm reports - Most sightings of tornadoes I've seen on there.
It works SJ
That's it BT, and Thanks ☺

And it is not going to let up anytime soon either JFla. Same events tomorrow in the same area.
LOL did it work SJ?
the link works stormhank.
ok - what the heck was THAT sh?
You are getting there SH!


Correction

The area that says Link is where you should have typed the 84hr Nam. You put the web address in the right place though.
I still think i did it wrong LOL to many words lol
Model Page Link
hows that LOL
there ya go stormhank
sure an active weather night
yea kind of slow in here though...would have thought we would have alot of wishcasters in here tonight with the carolina low.
All right BT, I don't promote the use of that word ☺ They are just interested people who need to learn what is actually realistic. I also think many folks figure there is no reason to check in before the season gets started...lol
sorry SJ....didnt meant to.... :(
hey SJ...you know a web site were you can get video or time elapse photos (satillite) of storms?
It's all good BT ☺

im getting geared up for tomarrow. going to watch Tiger win the golf tournament and watch this thing develop in the atlantic.
What kinds of storms BT, old tropical systems, or like the past few days?
old tropical systems
Try this BT. Found from here.

Geuss that is mostly pics though. Let me look a little more.
from the Charleston NWS office...

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE RGN THIS WEEK BRINGING A VARIETY OF
HAZARDS THE PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING HIGH WINDS...DANGEROUS
SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR OFF THE
SC/NC COAST LTE TNGT INTO SUN AS THE SUPPORTING UPR TROF DIGS DOWN
THE ERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF JUST E OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE 05/12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BEING THE ERN MOST
OUTLIER OF THE VARIOUS MODEL PKGS WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS TRACK WOULD RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW
CLOSER TO THE GA/SC COAST WITH THE LOW BEING CNTRD ABT 200 E OF SAV
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MANUAL HPC PROGS. OBVIOUSLY THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM.
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS MODELS
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION HYBRID...WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PHASE DIAGRAMS OUT
OF FSU.
Those are cool pics!! Do you know where to find a video of storms? For instance from when a storm forms until landfall?
Cool Mimic historical loops
evening 23!!
good evening all
Got to go eat dinner. I'll get back to you in a little bit!

Good to see you 23 and kman
Hey SJ whats up?

NHC has a 1003mb area of low pressure in 48hrs of the coast.

rrrr
now thats cool aswell SJ...I haven't really been able so see any good MIMIC's so from that I can study them to know them better.
If something is supposed to spin up off the E Coast would we not be seeing some signs of it by now ?
SJ

I just had dinner !
evening kman!!
i thought i saw a swirl of clouds of the coast of sc before the visible went out..eyes probably deseaving me though.
hey there Bama

Seems like everyone is waiting and watching.
I have always been somewhat skeptical of models.
The GFS had a system coming up from the S Caribbean and the latest runs have backed off of that big time
So far no sign of a cut off low in the making
Bama

That swirl was progged to move off to the E and make way for the big low everyone is talking about
I find it interesting that we are watching something like this already. I seriously thought it would be mid June before the models started picking up on things.
agreed but waht we are watching for is not really tropical
This is the pre season act !
162. MZT
The NAM certainly thinks this low will deepen quickly on Sunday night.
Kman on the 18z you can see the low coming up from the caribbean bringing some rain for south florida.00z should becoming out in about an hour or so.
aahh..but it could be sub tropical which I learned earlier today has both tropical and extratropical characteristics...
I'm kind of curious to see which model is going to perform the best.
The Possiblity of seeing an invest in the next day or two is there.
23

The GFS had the low coming up from 10 days ago. Now it has pushed it backed two weeks plus
These long range forecats are no better than crystal gazing
hey...i depend on crystal gazing quite a bit. between those and my tarot cards my predictions are untouchable.
anyone still here?
evening mr. baybuddy!!
so give me the numbers for the lotto and the power ball LOL
Hey! Just in from the water... GREAT SUNSET!!!
seriously though when would we expect to see some sign of the forecast verifying ??
All I see off the E Coast is some high cirrus
12 24 32 22 19 2 there ya go!!!!LOL!!




(no guarantee is made to the accuracy of this prediction. Bamatracker or bamatrackers sponsors are not liable for any loss of finances from his advice)
The good thing is that the very low pressure forming off the SE US coast, which was not forecasted by the GFS until a few days ago, will keep shear high in the caribbean longer through at least the end of next week.
I saw this happening as I was watching the IR last night. Unfortunately, I didn't capture it as I was viewing it. It's a little harder to see here, but this is the atmospheric collision that produced the Greensburg tornado, as seen by GOES West in infrared and water vapor.



Greensburg tornado infrared

Greensburg tornado water vapor

(I've set it to run five times and stop. Reload if you want to see it run more).

Sorry - the links seem to be failing in Firefox. If you don't see the pictures try:

http://www.mirawebdesign.com/temp/kansas-tornado-ir-01.gif

and

http://www.mirawebdesign.com/temp/kansas-tornado-wv-01.gif

kman...thats what i'm going to be looking for tomarrow. Waiting to see something come together.
Iam leaning towards a subtropical depression hybrid type system.Its actually supported by the phase diagrams out of FSU.We'll see what happens.


No invest's this month. (i hope) I was at the grand hotel in point clear and overheard some tourists discussing wunderground. I must admit it was pretty cool!
i hate wait and see.
Ehhh... Anyone got a copy of the SST's for the coast of FL in the next few days? Residual low from this cold front could be on its way moving southwest off the coast of the Carolinas.
well the forecast calls for the start of something late tonight and then intensifying from tomorrow.
We shall see.
GFS has got the low down to 1001 mb..easily TS Strength, within 48 hours.
Navy labeled low off SE Fl as Invest96w
Hurricanefcast

I think you have your oceans mixed up
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 10:51 PM EDT on May 05, 2007. (hide)
Navy labeled low off SE Fl as Invest96w.

No such thing... located in the Indian ocean
NOGAPS has a decently strong low moving near the Daytona, Florida Area, lingering off the coast for a few days, then being swept away by an HPS.
The low in reference is diving SE, currently located in central North Carolina! It should make the coast sometime tomorrow afternoon/eveningish!

How about them storms blowing up in Kansas again in the same loop provided!

Evening All!
There's such a thing: Link
192. MZT
Pressures are generally around 1015 millibars along the Carolina coasts right now. I guess it's still too early to detect any real change.
Hurricane23, you're absolutely right. I'm sorry, I totally mistook that for Florida, it does look like Florida's SE coast though.. My apologies. I feel like an idiot :(.. Oh well, live and learn.
Ok - we all do that sometimes.

Meanwhile out west we are headed for a historical event tonight.

CHECK OUT THE SEVERE STROM CENTER'S WEBSITE REDONE FOR THIS EVENT.


Scary eh?
Evening TCW

Good to see everyone.

Yep TCW, should push off shore tomorrow or so?
I'm having a deja vu from the previous severe weather outbreak from February-March. It's a similar set up. Perfect location, swallowed up all the energy it got.
197. RL3AO
Atlantic basis invests end in the letter "L"
False alarm. Calm down everyone LOL
But i did look into the model forecasts for this new low that should be forming sometime late tomorrow off the coast of the Carolinas. The GFS shows strong CC rotation, but too much wind shear. The NOGAPS shows less wind shear, but due to SST's and close proximity to land, i don't see a TS forming. We just have to keep an eye on it, at least there's something harmless we can have fun predicting this early, and if it did bring rain to Florida, I'd be happy, these fires are killing us here. The smoke is horrible. Sorry again Hurricane23 for my prior statements regarding the Invest 96W
Hurricanefcast no problem...
Is that current 23?
All of the storms are training, which means that some places are getting their 3rd or 4th tornado warning today!
Yes SJ.
at least with hurricanes we get several days warning

H23 - Its tornado after tornado after tornado. Its incredible, I haven't even bothered with the individual warnings its so outrageous.
No kidding kman!
Is this tornado season more active than normal and if so is there any correlation with la Nina ?
Guys fixed the image...Now the timestamp is added so the time is showing.
The shear should push away in front of the low. You can really see it churning over NC.
The WV loop gives a good image of the low diving down

Link
Here is a differerent view..popping everywere.

fff
23

scary stuff
Posted By: kmanislander at 10:10 PM CDT on May 05, 2007.

Is this tornado season more active than normal and if so is there any correlation with la Nina ?


Well, I had a blog on that earlier this year; here is an article from 1999:

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.
Shows well on this WV also.
Im back guys HI h23 n all. Just a quick question... Does an active tornado season have any thing to do with what type hurricane season there maybe?
STL

Thanks. Very interesting.
SH

If an active tornado season is associated with la Nina and La Nina is associated with an active hurricane season then I guess you have your answer
But I am sure someone knows of an active tornado season during an El Nino year LOL
Stormhank- An active tornado season can sometimes be attributed to a developing la nia, which is basically the opposite of an el nio, which is what we had last summer and during winter. La nia is, fundamentally, the cooling of the pacific ocean. Along with the cooling of the pacific ocean we can expect to see below average wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean. Last year the High wind shear was the main factor for a "normal" hurricane season. This year we should definitely see an above average hurricane season, especially since a light to moderate la nia is developing. Less wind shear = less resistance for a developing thunderstorm, disturbance, depression, tropical storm, and eventual hurricane. So yes this sometimes can be attributed to an active hurricane season, however there is usually no DIRECT correlation between an active hurricane and tornado season, it's merely the factors that produce the active season.
Link
Woohoo...00 GFS started downloading!!!
El Nino usually means more and stronger tornadoes in the Southeast (as we saw this past winter); La Nina means more in the central U.S.
thanks KM....I'll ask this same question again on November 30th.. LOL
hey bama n micheal how r you tonight?
Looking at the direction of movement, as for heavily populated areas - Omaha NE Perhaps even Kansas City? Sioux City?? - and everything in between then later up into Minneapolis???
229. RL3AO
Total rainfall

1
The reason is kind of simple - El Nino means a stronger jet stream over the Southeast and La Nina means a stronger jet stream over the central U.S. (the stronger jet stream over the SE during El Nino also affects hurricanes - and tornadic thunderstorms/supercells NEED high shear; supercells are the exact opposite of hurricanes - high shear = good).
OH and H23.. Nice animated graphic of that tornado outbreak, Wow! It's incredible isn't it? I feel bad for the many people who are about to be affected by those storms. That's just amazing, it's been awhile since i've seen this severe of an outbreak.
The South Dakota radar signature looks just like a row of monster funnels.
doing well....waiting to see how these ole models are coming out.
Thats disturbing, Aberdeen South Dekota has had 5 inches of rain today, they have had 4 straight hours of strong storms over them.

Here's the weird part, the temp started at 62 and has risen to 69 during these heavy storms!

Thats absolutely unheard of up there, heck its not common to see temps that warm here after 4 hours of thunderstorms straight accept during the tropical rain season.


In other words, semi - tropical convection is affecting areas as far north as south Dekota, incredible stuff folks...
Sorry...that's Kansas.
i am watching cnn right now and the video Greensburg has been hit by a EF5 95% of Greensburg is gone you most turn it too cnn NOW 95% of Greensburg is gone
These storms have absolutely amazing moisture content for this far north, which increases their violent and eratic potential.

The it goes around here in Florida, the more tropical and soupy the air is and the more moisture laden the storms are, the higher the risk of a eratic behavior and explosive development.

Also makes things more condusive for tornados under the dynamics out there.


AH

So you can have high tornadic activity in EITHER an El Nino or La Nina year just that the geographical location is different.

When the tornadic activity is located in the central US ( where it has been happening this year ) that means la Nina is in play and we can therefore expect heightened hurricane activity. Hope I got that right
239. MZT
Jedkinds, I think North Dakota will be getting a share in this too.
This is extremely dangerous weather out there tonight folks, this has me worried about tonight after what happened in Kansas last night,
When everyone in Tampa was saying Charlie wasnt all that bad I noticed that there were no reports or web cams working out of Port Charlotte. It seems you hear a lot from an area when its kinda bad then Nothing when its an absolute catastrophe -- as in Katrina and the storm last night in Kansas for that matter.

I wonder if there wouldnt be a way to know all contact with an area had been lost by somehow monitoring Internet traffic and then distinguishing between say a few outages and major infrastructure damage. Ill look at the network monitoring sites.
Well I am out of here for tonight. It will be intersting to see how the E Coast low plays out tomorrow.

Good night all and thanks for the exchange of ideas and information

The visible sunset picture off GOES West is a bit sobering.

Sunset Visible Satellite

If you can't see the link for some reason, here are the direct addresses:

http://www.mirawebdesign.com/temp/midwest-tornado-outbreak-05-06-2007-00-45.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/cp/loop-vis.html

245. MZT
The new GFS model runs are out for May 6 at 0000 utc

Link
see my 3:17 post for the WV loop of that low diving down
the more tropical and soupy the air is and the more moisture laden the storms are, the higher the risk of a eratic behavior and explosive development

I know all about what can happen when you have insane levels of humidity and temperatures...
Kman- Yeah, usually this is true. Less wind shear, warmer SST's near the caribbean, and above average moisture in the Atlantic tend to lead to an Above Average hurricane season. I would like to point out, however, that 2005, with 27 Storms, was neither an El Nio nor a La Nia event. It just goes to show, anything can happen.
00Z GFS 54 hr...Link
Hi all... what a horrible mess in the Midwest last night and today, especially in Kansas. I'm trying to post a link here to the NWS radar out of Wichita, which I've never done, so it might not work. But I was just wondering, do any of you see the first storm in this latest train actually spinning around, like a mini hurricane? And the second one almost looks it has a eye, or an anti-eye, in this case... both look to be very bad storms, whatever the case...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=ict&overlays=11101111&product=NCR&loop=yes

It helps if you can zoom in and click off the warning boxes...

Jo
HCFC

Too true. Every year has some quirk to it
GFS Shows more westward movement towards land, and still a decently strong low... 1004mb. Well, i'm going to sleep, work tomorrow, and see how this plays out. It's not good to get to worked up over what, at the most, could become a weak TS, especially with 80Kt Wind shear....
catch you all tomorrow
gnite
254. MZT
The GFS, like the NAM shows that low deepening rapidly tomorrow. By tomorrow evening, I'm sure we'll be actively speculating what it will do.

At least there will be something to evaluate, as opposed to waiting for something to arrive.
Shear can drop very rapidly.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

OKC045-060345-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-070506T0345Z/
ELLIS OK-
1019 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 11 MILES
SOUTH OF HARMON OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTY. SPOTTERS ARE
REPORTING POWER FLASHES WITH THIS STORM INDICATING EITHER A TORNADO
OR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. THE STORM IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THE TORNADO WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF ELLIS
COUNTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF HARMON.

LAT...LON 3598 9962 3591 9954 3595 9938 3620 9938

$$

..SPEG.





All these warnings popping up. Scary stuff.
That "mini hurricane" is what they call a MESO low, they can be producers of very dangerous tornados possibly, often very intense winds as well.

I have seen them here in Florida, they can be quite violent, we had a tornado warning at he tim when one went over me, that was back in Febuary..,
258. RL3AO
I'll be going to bed here in a minute. Hopefully we dont lose any more cities tonight. But this was a hell of an outbreak. I've never seen so many severe storms hit the same places over and over again.
The Iowa storms have linked up and think they want to play at being an eyewall (spinning clockwise.)

Link
I've never seen a cropping of clouds over an area that size. Kansas is a very large state.
Alright y'all I am out. The 00z GFS looks interesting. Be interesting to see the phase evolution for this run.

anywho, I am off to bed. See everyone tomorrow.

Models and much more....Quick Links
night all that are leaving!!!
I am ver concerned with what I'm seeing across the plains, there are so many storms capable od being destructive out there tonight its rediculous, and they are only becoming even more numerous...

Lets not forget how bad flooding can be as well, its often called the silent killer, and serious flooding is occurring this evening as well.
264. MZT
I would agree, this possible system off the Carolinas is small beer. If it does become a named system, it'll probably be milder than Alberto, and just bring rain somewhere.

But, after all, we are pinheads on a tropical weather blog -- so, we gotta discuss it! :-)
I can tell that tonight will be a busy night for amateur and professional meteorologist bloggers here tonight.
it will not become a named system, simply a big thunderstorm.
GFS has a 1008 low into S. Carolina wed morning....looks like a rainmaker!!
im out for tonight!!! have a good night everyone.
If the steering winds stay that way and if that system does in fact form, Florida might have something to contend with. Though we need the rain but not the wind.
GFS predicts favorable Shear in the Southern Caribbean between the dates of May 11 & May 20

GFS
I really feel bad for those folks living in the Central Plains, having all those bad storms, it is crazy.
Good news, the area covered by the Tornado Watches are getting smaller. All of this could be done around 2:30 AM EDT!
Good night folks, my thoughts and prayers are with those affected by the severe weather. Good night and be safe.
Thanks, Jedkins... what a mess out there, even in the places that don't get tornados. I'll bet there are a lot of people in those states who won't even go to bed tonight, scared and worrying... :-(

Jo
the area covered by tornado watches may be getting stronger, but at least in the short term where severe storms do exsist, they are trending more numerous amd more ibtense.


After all its not about the watch boxes, its about the warningings, watch boxes only mean anticipation, not necceas
Heck we had numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and reports of hail in Florida today, but there was no watch box
Heck we get lots of severe storms throughout the wet season here in Florida along the seabreeze collisions and never get any watch boxes.
sorry about my terrible typos, hope you could read everything alright everyone lol
Well,for a watch you need a large scale synoptic situation to cause the storms.Sea breeze thunderstorms are too unpredictable for a watch.
ya thats the true reson why they aren't.

I wish they'd be able to issue watches eventually for our summer type pattern events, it would be usefull. But right now its just not practical.

Plus anyone who has lived here as long as me doesn't a severe watch box to be on alert when the sea breeze storms crank up iun the wet season.
the photos you are seeing are from Greensburg and has you can see it is gone

lol

lol

lol

lol

Downtown Greensburg lies in ruins

lol

lol
I'm back, couldn't sleep. What's up everyone? Nice pics taz, scary stuff.
we are come overe to my blog lilmax no one her right now
So far I havent seen any fatalities tonight just 15 injured which, considering the activity is a miracle. Unfortunately I think the news after sun up is going to be worse. There are still some bad storms out there too.

The Omaha area is particularly worrisome.
WOWAHHHH!!!!! I saved this image just cause there is so much green havent seen that in a while. esp over conus.



I donno - It seems unusual that the cloud tops should be that developed now. perhaps I just didn't notice it before this time of year.
286. MZT
For our possible Atlantic sotrm -- The 0600 models are forecasting a sub 1000 millibar low to form Tuesday, but that it will then weaken Wednesday and slosh ashore somewhere.

Nogaps says Florida... GFS says South Carolina... Canadian can't even decide to bring it ashore.

Most of the advisories are referring to this as a "cut-off low" and not describing it as tropical.
Tropical systems technically are cut off lows.
288. MZT
New blog is up