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Tornado Risk Amping Up This Week and Beyond

By: Bob Henson 4:31 PM GMT on March 20, 2017

Spring began in the Northern Hemisphere at 6:28 am EDT Monday, and the U.S. atmosphere seems to have gotten the memo. A multi-day stretch of severe weather should kick off by late Thursday or Friday. There are hints that the pattern will remain stormy off and on through next week, with upper-level energy expected to remain fairly progressive and the Gulf of Mexico supplying ample moisture.

Widespread damage from Southeast freeze
At least 90 percent of the peach crop in South Carolina (the nation’s top peach producer behind California, with a typical crop value of $90 million) was wiped out by freezing temperatures late last week, according to the state’s agriculture commissioner. The state’s wheat and corn fields also suffered heavy damage, reported WISTV. A less severe freeze in Georgia may have ruined anywhere from 25 to 75 percent of that state’s peach crop. Blueberries across the Southeast also experienced major damage, as summarized by Louisville, KY, broadcast meteorologist John Belski. It dropped to 25°F in Gainesville, FL, on Thursday morning, the coldest reading for so late in the year in more than a century of Gainesville records. Jacksonville’s 28°F was also a record for so late in the year. Update: Total crop losses in South Carolina and Georgia could approach $1 billion, according to an AP report filed Monday afternoon.

Fruit trees that budded and blossomed weeks ahead of schedule took a major hit across the mid-South during last week’s freeze. Temperatures that dipped to 21°F on Wednesday and 22°F on Thursday in Louisville spelled a hasty end to the city’s pear blossoms. “I have never seen the blooms go from white to brown while still on the trees,” Belski said.

In Washington, D.C., a large portion of the renowned Tidal Basin cherry blossoms were toasted by the deep freeze, but some of the less-developed buds (about half of the total, according to the National Park Service) apparently made it through. The survivors are now expected to transition quickly into peak bloom later this week, well ahead of the March 25 opening ceremony of the National Cherry Blossom Festival.


Figure 1. Visitors make their way through a deflating lineup of flash-frozen cherry blossoms in Washington, D.C.’s Tidal Basin on Saturday, March 18, 2017. Cold weather killed half of the blossoms on Washington's famous cherry trees just as they were approaching peak bloom. Image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon.

Major pattern shift will usher in severe weather
Marginally severe storms are possible across parts of Indiana and Illinois on Monday and the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, as a spoke of energy rotates around a upper-level low sweeping through eastern Canada. The bigger event will come later this week as the upper-level pattern shifts back toward a Pacific-dominated regime. Several inches of rain and major mountain snows are headed for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington as one storm swings through on Tuesday/Wednesday and a stronger one around Friday/Saturday.

The first upper-level wave in this sequence will reach the Great Plains by late Thursday. Low-level moisture will be rapidly returning from the Gulf, but it’s not yet clear whether enough instability will be on hand to support severe weather. If there is, the focal point would be along a strong dryline expected to be over the High Plains of western KS/OK/TX by late Thursday. A more robust severe threat appears likely for Friday over eastern TX/OK into AR/LA, and on Saturday across parts of MS/AL/GA/FL, as the system marches east into more-unstable air. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center has outlined both regions with a 15% likelihood of severe weather for Friday and Saturday. I’d expect those odds to rise as the timing and locations become clearer through the week.


Figure 2. The 7-day precipitation forecast issued on Monday morning, March 20, 2017, reflects increased Pacific energy that is expected to generate heavy rain and mountain snow on the U.S. West Coast and fire off one or more rounds of severe weather across the Southern Plains and Southeast. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

The next multi-day round of severe weather will likely erupt with the second wave in the series, in tandem with the gradual establishment of a upper-level trough in the western U.S. Models are struggling with the evolution of these features, although recent runs of both the GFS and ECMWF models tend to agree on a pattern that would favor severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains of TX/OK for at least a day or two early next week.

Wildfire also a threat this week; Boulder dodges a bullet
Fire danger may hit critical levels on Thursday and Friday as high winds and warm, dry air sweep across parts of NM/CO/TX as part of the first central U.S. storm. The landscape is drying quickly in this region following a very warm, dry February and early March. Moderate to severe drought now covers most of eastern CO, western KS, and northern OK, according to last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor.

After setting a record high of 80°F on Saturday, Boulder, CO, had a major scare on Sunday: a fire that erupted just west of town on Saturday night swelled to just over 100 acres before it was largely contained by late Sunday. More than 1000 people were under mandatory evacuation orders, and a pre-evacuation zone extended nearly to downtown. Nationwide, the 2.06 million acres burned in wildfires from January 1 to March 17 is by far the largest amount burned by mid-March in data going back to 2007.


Figure 3. Smoke rises from a wildfire on Sunday morning, March 19, 2017, near the west edge of Boulder, CO. Image credit: Seth Frankel via AP.

Extending severe weather outlooks to three weeks: Year 3
Meteorologists in a multi-institution effort based at the College of DuPage have embarked on their third year of providing generalized guidance on the likelihood of U.S. severe weather up to three weeks in advance. The Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecasts (ERTAF) are released each Monday, featuring outlooks for week 2 (the week beginning the following Monday) and week 3. For each forecast week, ERTAF indicates whether the likelihood of U.S. tornadoes is above, near, or below the climatological average, together with a confidence rating (high, medium, or low).

The technique is based on atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which relates to the pace at which momentum imparted by Earth’s spin is being transferred to higher latitudes (see Figure 4 below). Gensini and colleagues employ an AAM-related index called the global wind oscillation (GWO), which is broken into eight phases similar to the daily Madden-Julian oscillation index. When AAM is relatively low, we’re more likely to see upper-level troughs in the U.S. West and ridging in the Southeast, a favorable setup for springtime severe weather.


Figure 4. Angular momentum is transferred from the tropics to midlatitudes as air rotating more quickly at the tropics (because of Earth’s larger diameter) ascends and then descends at midlatitudes, transferring momentum to the surface. Image credit: UCAR/COMET Program.

Gensini and colleague Alan Marinaro (Northern Illinois University) demonstrated the utility of their approach in a 2015 Monthly Weather Review paper. That same year, they introduced the ERTAF, which performed very well: 10 of 16 two-week outlooks, and 10 of 15 three-week outlooks, correctly specified whether activity would be above, below, or near the climatological norm for that week (with “normal” defined as between 75% and 125% of the weekly average number of tornadoes). The forecasts were a bit more challenging in 2016, but 6 of the 13 two-week outlooks and 5 of 12 three-week outlooks were on target, and only 4 of the 25 outlooks erred by more than 50% (e.g., by calling for above-average activity when below-average activity occurred, or vice versa). The ERTAF website includes all of the verification statistics for 2015, 2016, and 2017 thus far, based on SPC preliminary tornado totals.

For the week beginning March 26, ERTAF’s six forecasters are calling for an above-average likelihood of tornadoes with high confidence. “We all agreed week 2 is going to be above average. It was a slam dunk,” Gensini told me. The current week-3 outlook, valid April 2-8, is also for above-average activity but with low confidence. “At that range, we’re using primarily statistical analogs, but you only have the realm of what’s been historically observed. Week 2 is where we can couple the statistical and dynamical approach. In terms of subseasonal forecasting, this is really low-hanging fruit.”


Remembering Matt Parker
The U.S. meteorological enterprise suffered a major blow on Friday with the untimely loss of Matthew Parker (Savannah River National Laboratory), who died in his sleep on Wednesday night. Matt had just begun a one-year term in January as president of the American Meteorological Society. However, he had been heavily involved as president-elect in 2016 and was a key player in many other AMS activities before then. A native of Ohio, Matt spent more than 27 years at DOE’s Savannah River National Laboratory after completing his bachelor’s and master’s degrees at North Carolina State University.

I always enjoyed running into Matt at AMS annual meetings, though we never had a chance to work closely together. "He was not just a colleague but a close friend that has stayed in my family's home," said Dr. Marshall Shepherd, past-president of the AMS and host of The Weather Channel's WxGeeks, in a weather.com article by Jon Erdman. "He was as committed as anyone I know to the weather enterprise and bringing academia, government, and private sector together,” Shepard added.

“This is an enormous loss not just for the AMS family but for the entire scientific community,” said Keith Seitter, AMS Executive Director. “Matt was deeply admired for his commitment to the AMS community. He was a leader and a friend, and we will all miss him tremendously.” 

Succeeding Parker at the helm of AMS for the remainder of this year will be Dr. Roger Wakimoto (National Science Foundation), who was this year’s president-elect for 2018.

We’ll be back with a new post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson

Severe Weather Tornado Fire Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You so Much for the detailed update on the freeze issues as well as the pending
start of the severe weather season. As noted by the current US tornado stats, and the same
Pacific flow that is returning that set up across the US in January and February along with the
unusual warmth, we are already at the top of the list this year in terms of recent tornado climatology
in the US; can't imagine how much worse it might be this year with this ongoing pattern returning:
these current stats will be updated for the additional confirmed tornadoes after Feb 18th through
the present.


TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 115 - 102 3 42 39 4 7 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 1
MAR 111 - 86 11 20 38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 367 - 971 1177 886 1041 20 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8

*PRELIMINARY REPORTS.
PREL = 2017 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.
ACT = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
And here is the Pacific Jet inbound from the Pacific, along with that strong mid-level low, that will help increase the potential for tornadic vorticity across the US towards the end of this week; can't help but notice from the loop that the same pattern that has been bringing rain to Southern California has also helped with in the increased tornado counts for the US for Jan and Feb:





It is with a heavy Heart that we at Portlight are sad to report the passing of a true New Orleans Legend and Entertainer.
Midge Jones passed away and we were informed just now by His good friend Claire Hartley Grogan. I met and shared a few days with Him after this entry from 2013. I will always think of the people He moved and smiled with. A life well lived and a True American Gentleman.

Fair Winds Midge.

You will be fondly remembered by thousands Sir.

The Power of Mobility
By: Portlight , 3:38 PM CDT on September 11, 2013


Bradford pears also went from white to dead brown in my area of College Park MD. I've never seen this before.

Ever.


Quoting 5. georgevandenberghe:

Bradford pears also went from white to dead brown in my area of College Park MD. I've never seen this before.

Ever.




It has got to be that dang climate change lol
bees will be in for a surprise as well no flower no nectar
no nectar no honey no honey well you get the picture

change one thing change everything

faster and faster
thanks for the update gentlemen have a great day
Severe Weather Readiness for People with Disabilities
By: Portlight , 12:03 PM CDT on March 23, 2016


For the 57 million Americans with disabilities, medical emergencies and natural disasters present real challenges. Learn how people with disabilities, their families, and first responders can plan ahead for a disaster.



57 million Americans have a disability, and anyone can be at risk for developing or acquiring one in their lifetime through illness, injury, or aging. People with disabilities may face barriers to everyday activities, such as reading small print, understanding instructions, getting to places or hearing what is said.

This is particularly relevant when disasters strike and people are forced to leave or be confined in their home.

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:


Quoting 6. blueyedbiker:


It has got to be that dang climate change lol
Glad to see you have finally come to understand what Jeff and Bob and Jennifer and hundreds of other scientists have been telling you for years. "That dang climate change" is going to cause a lot more problems in the future too -- prepare for crop failures due to unanticipated causes like pollinator extinction and unanticipated freezes and drought -- all a result of "that dang climate change"!
On the issue of climate change and animal/insect species migration, this is a huge issue as well. Someone posted a comment on pine beetles last week on here and I did not have a chance to post a comment before we left town.

We just spent $ 500.00 on a tree service on Thursday taking down a huge 60 foot tall dead pine tree out by the street due to a pine beetle infestation. The Arborist for the company who took a look at it told me that pine beetle infestations were becoming more common in North Florida and that these infested trees are the first to fall (on a house, car, or people) during high winds because of strong t-storms or a hurricane, etc. because pine trees have such shallow roots. The extended range for these infestations is an issue as noted in this article portion from 2003 as to British Columbia:

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Pages 223-232 in T.L Shore et al. (eds) Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions, Oct. 30-31, 2003. Kelowna BC. Natural Resources Canada, Infromation Report BC-X-399, Victoria

Publication Date

2003

Abstract

The current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle is not limited by available hosts. Instead, its potential to expand north and east has been restricted by climatic conditions unfavorable for brood development. We combined a model of the impact of climatic conditions on the establishment and persistence of mountain pine beetle populations with a spatially explicit, climate-driven simulation tool. Historic weather records were used to produce maps of the distribution of past climatically suitable habitats for mountain pine beetles in British Columbia. Overlays of annual mountain pine beetle occurrence on these maps were used to determine if the beetle has expanded its range in recent years due to changing climate. An examination of the distribution of climatically suitable habitats in 10-year increments derived from climate normals (1921-1950 to 1971-2000) clearly shows and increase in the range of benign habitats. Furthermore, an increase (at an increasing rate) in the number of infestations since 1970 in formally climatically unsuitable habitats indicates that mountain pine beetle populations have expanded into these new areas. Given the rapid colonization by mountain pine beetles of former climatically unsuitable areas during the last several decades, continued warming in western North America associated with climate change will allow the beetle to further expand its range northward, eastward and toward higher elevations.

Tomorrow's severe weather outlook has been upgraded with a Slight risk now in place:



Looks like this week is going to be quite eventful in regards to severe weather, particularly later in the week as the blog post outlines. Thanks Bob Henson for the update!
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

bees will be in for a surprise as well no flower no nectar
no nectar no honey no honey well you get the picture

change one thing change everything

faster and faster


Mulberries provide a feast for birds for two weeks centered around June 1 in my area. Not in 2016. An April 6 freeze wiped out 99% of the crop.

Black locust is a significant nectar source in late April-mid May here. But blossoms of this species were also wiped out by this freeze.. none that year.

Neither has yet broken bud this year so far so they will probably be all right.
Another good source for information on current global climate change issues is the new Planet Earth II series done by BBC and now being shown on US television ( On PBS which is also on the budget chopping block in the new budget).

While the series, which is again beautifully filmed and narrated by David Attenborough, has individual, and spellbinding, episodes focusing on various geographical areas on the Earth (ie. Mountains, Islands, Jungles, Deserts, etc.) and the animals that live in these regions, inevitably (and not in an overt manner), there is a reference at some point to climate change and the impacts on these habitats. In the case of the desert episode which I saw over the weekend, he notes that world desert areas are expanding in size due to global warming. In the case of the mountains episode, and the section on the rare snow leopard of the Himalayas (wonderfully filmed through the use of motion triggered cameras on the mountain habitat areas for the leopards), they noted the shrinking habitats due to less snowfall and glacial retreat in this region due to warming.

Point being that the effects of climate change are already having global impacts on all animals across the globe from the smallest insects to the predator class (on up to man).
Quoting 13. Envoirment:

Tomorrow's severe weather outlook has been upgraded with a Slight risk now in place:



Looks like this week is going to be quite eventful in regards to severe weather, particularly later in the week as the blog post outlines. Thanks Bob Henson for the update!


(sees North Georgia in slight zone)

WELP, TIME TO GET READY FOR THE TORNADOES.
Quoting 16. Famoguy1234:



(sees North Georgia in slight zone)

WELP, TIME TO GET READY FOR THE TORNADOES.


The forecast for now is a wind/hail threat. Here's a snip from the SPC for your area.

...Lower to middle MS and TN valleys and the Carolinas...

A cold front should approach northern TN early Tuesday and extend
westward into northern OK. Modified continental-polar air with upper
50s to near 60F dewpoints will advect through the pre-frontal warm
sector beneath an eastward-expanding plume of 7.5 to 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates. These processes will contribute to moderate
instability with mlcape from 1500-2000 j/kg possible as the boundary
layer warms during the afternoon. A few storms may be ongoing in
vicinity of this boundary with some threat for mainly hail. As the
warm sector destabilizes and with the approach of a weak shortwave
trough embedded within northwesterly flow, additional storms are
expected to develop along the front during the afternoon from
southern MO, northern AR into TN and subsequently spread southeast.
Wind profiles will remain westerly unidirectional, but mid-level
winds will increase with the approach of the shortwave trough with
effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt supporting both multicell and a
few supercell structures. Storms may eventually consolidate into
clusters as they develop southeast with a threat for mainly damaging
wind and large hail. Additional storms may develop farther east into
the Carolinas later in the afternoon into the evening.
75 w/ pressure slightly dropping now in S C IL. Missed the storms both Fri morning & this morning, so still somewhat dry. Looks like a few chances upcoming this week though. Light winds from W-SW, but should switch to more northerly and give us a couple more morning lows slightly above freezing mid week. Daffodils appear to have survived the low 20s mostly, fruit trees hadn't bloomed yet here, so should be o.k., will check the buds tonight.

Sad that the man in my avatar, Father of RnR, passed Sat. If interested, several articles/obit @ stltoday.com. Hail,Hail Rock n Roll!
Quoting 14. georgevandenberghe:



Mulberries provide a feast for birds for two weeks centered around June 1 in my area. Not in 2016. An April 6 freeze wiped out 99% of the crop.

Black locust is a significant nectar source in late April-mid May here. But blossoms of this species were also wiped out by this freeze.. none that year.

Neither has yet broken bud this year so far so they will probably be all right.


My Mulberry tree already has ripened and is feeding birds and squirrels. I only manage to get to pick a few each year due to all of the "competition". I have not seen this tree produce so early in the year, but I have only been on this property for the past 11 years.
Had a problem there, that image didn't work.
21. Ed22
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:



My thinking, No El nino.
Quoting 21. Ed22:

My thinking, No El nino.
I'm pretty much neutral also, but I think it's almost surely going to be headed that way as the months go by and into autumn.
From Reuters:

Teens suing U.S. over climate change ask for Exxon's 'Wayne Tracker' emails



Lawyers for a group of teenagers suing the U.S. government in a climate change case have asked the government and the oil industry's leading trade group to turn over emails sent and received by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson using an alias address while he was running Exxon Mobil.

"It's possible that Rex Tillerson was communicating with people in government related to climate and energy policy using that email address," Julia Olson, a lawyer for the teenagers, said on Monday, referring to the alias address

Wayne.Tracker@exxonmobil.com.

[...]

The teenagers' case, filed in federal court in Oregon, seeks to prove government officials and oil industry leaders knew about the causes and effects of climate change but nevertheless carried on with policies that perpetuated it, violating Americans' constitutional right to live in a habitable climate.

The federal government has argued in court filings that there is no support for the claim that Americans are constitutionally entitled to a protected climate, while the API has said climate science is not firmly established enough to support the teenagers' case.

Spokespeople for the Justice Department, Exxon and the API did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

"Based on evidence we already have, it's pretty clear that Rex Tillerson, Exxon and API all knew that climate change was very significant and was being caused by burning fossil fuels," Olson said. "To the extent that we can get information through Wayne Tracker emails that they were openly acknowledging climate change was a big problem and trying to influence the government on how to deal with it, that helps our case."

The case is Juliana v. U.S., U.S. District Court, District of Oregon (Eugene), No. 15-cv-01517.

Click here to read full article.

----------

Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall tomorrow; as noted in the main Blog and by some comments below, looks like we are going to have our hands full with tracking potential severe weather over the next several days: have to see what happens when the Pacific jet reaches the Rockies and beyond into the Plains:


Image result for map rocky mountains





Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:





This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)
Just added this to today's post:

Update: Total crop losses in South Carolina and Georgia could approach $1 billion, according to an AP report filed Monday afternoon.

it will be 8.99 for a pint of blueberries soon
jack up the prices even more now
and bring home nothing 6 or 7 bags and its like 200 dollars
its got to end somewhere next year when my contact is up
gonna have to ask for a 40 percent raise
8 percent per year over the term of the 5 year contact to 2023
just to cover food
Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)
I'm guessing that climate change is causing a good deal of gender confusion as well as other problems. I suggest the oceanic disturbance we've known as ENSO is becoming El Nieta , the confused offspring of El Nino and La Nina, and its characteristics will only become apparent over time, as did the characteristics of the parents.
Quoting 30. CaneFreeCR:

I'm guessing that climate change is causing a good deal of gender confusion as well as other problems. I suggest the oceanic disturbance we've known as ENSO is becoming El Nieta , the confused offspring of El Nino and La Nina, and its characteristics will only become apparent over time, as did the characteristics of the parents.
Thanks for the "science".
so happy cali had lots of rains be bumper crops later if the rain had not come blueberries would of been 29.88 a pint
I dont know about yall but it feels like Christmas..

Comey confirming Trump-Russia probe investigations was splendid but Trump with his meltdown on Twitter was even more glorious.

All the dangerous policies put in place by Trump including climate change will be reversed soon.

#Biggerthanwatergate

35. Ed22
Quoting 22. bwtranch:

I'm pretty much neutral also, but I think it's almost surely going to be headed that way as the months go by and into autumn.
Maybe, maybe not; lets just have a wait and see approach to things like nature, models can ownly predict but will happen; its 50/50 chance of it happening or it may not happen at all.
Spring soundtrack



A 15th-century description of spring, when 'the medys waxen grene, the flowris coloureth the erthe.'

Happy 1st day of spring! (Statue of Flora, goddess of flowers and the season of spring, from Roman Emperor Hadrian's villa)

Quoting 35. Ed22:

Maybe, maybe not; lets just have a wait and see approach to things like nature, models can ownly predict but will happen; its 50/50 chance of it happening or it may not happen at all.
I think with the generally warming waters we can expect a higher incidence. As a geologist I have read papers where the authors speculated that El Nino could have been persistent in times of high CO2 concentration in the geologic past.
Now, I did say it was speculative, but that is something to think about. I'm personally becoming very skeptical about the ENSO being any kind of reliable metric on what the climate is going to do.
My Sons band is en route back to NOLA from Paris and are traveling from Atlanta tonight...on the least leg of the trip.

They arrived March 7th. They were with friends who visited here and they are the Directors of the French Opera House there in Paris. I want to thank them here for allowing the Boyz a first rate and unique French experience and wunderful accommodations while there. The band also payed it forward by mentoring many local French Jazz students as well...and brought a cache of Musical Jazz Instruments to distribute among them.

Here is the boyz performing with a local French Citizen soon after arriving...while practicing.









Jr's page.



I'm very sorry to learn about the losses of fruits in the US due to the damaging weather! Thanks for the update on this.

On other news:
Overnight Energy: White House delays climate order's release
By Timothy Cama and Devin Henry - 03/20/17 06:23 PM EDT
The White House has delayed the release of an executive order on climate change, two sources told The Hill on Monday.
President Trump was expected to sign his long-awaited order on Monday, beginning the process of rolling back major Obama-era climate change policies and fulfilling key campaign promises.
But that order could now come next week instead, the sources said.
The timing of the executive order has been up in the air for weeks as the White House mulls what exactly to include in the plan. ...

More see link above.
Record-breaking climate change pushes world into 'uncharted territory'
Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows
The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Tuesday 21 March 2017 00.39 GMT
The record-breaking heat that made 2016 the hottest year ever recorded has continued into 2017, pushing the world into "truly uncharted territory", according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
The WMO's assessment of the climate in 2016, published on Tuesday, reports unprecedented heat across the globe, exceptionally low ice at both poles and surging sea-level rise. ...

More see link above.


The summary at one glance. Click to enlarge.
Official WMO press release.
quiet
here my spring has sprung tune


Quoting 9. Patrap:

Severe Weather Readiness for People with Disabilities
By: Portlight , 12:03 PM CDT on March 23, 2016


For the 57 million Americans with disabilities, medical emergencies and natural disasters present real challenges. Learn how people with disabilities, their families, and first responders can plan ahead for a disaster.



57 million Americans have a disability, and anyone can be at risk for developing or acquiring one in their lifetime through illness, injury, or aging. People with disabilities may face barriers to everyday activities, such as reading small print, understanding instructions, getting to places or hearing what is said.

This is particularly relevant when disasters strike and people are forced to leave or be confined in their home.




It doesn't even have to be severe. Even though people are very good about shoveling their walks in this town, the snow removal is terrible... in part because there is a limited budget, in part because there is no alternate side of the street parking in winter, and in part because we don't use salt here as it would damage the streams and rivers. Consequently when it snows a few inches, it pretty much just gets packed down into ice by traffic. The city WILL bring sand around to really slick intersections, but only plows that main routes generally, and the side streets only occasionally. The result is that the streets all over town get terribly rutted and bumpy with ice. If you're a senior citizen it becomes extremely dangerous (A slip = a broken hip like as not, and a broken hip in a senior citizen is likely the beginning of the final decent.

So many seniors are housebound all winter where we have substantial snow (and this winter was close to a great-lakes style winter)
Quoting 40. Patrap:

My Sons band is en route back to NOLA from Paris and are traveling from Atlanta tonight...on the least leg of the trip.

They arrived March 7th. They were with friends who visited here and they are the Directors of the French Opera House there in Paris. I want to thank them here for allowing the Boyz a first rate and unique French experience and wunderful accommodations while there. The band also payed it forward by mentoring many local French Jazz students as well...and brought a cache of Musical Jazz Instruments to distribute among them.

Here is the boyz performing with a local French Citizen soon after arriving...while practicing.









Jr's page.






Thanks for sharing that ~mellow~ vibe ...! Hoo!~
living earth app web site powered by wu

Link
The climate change denialists are inactive tonight. They don't relish the thought of being reminded their dictator (In a literal sense, follow what he dictates) and his wrecking crew are confirmed to be under FBI investigation.

Will Republicans in the richest nation in the world and profiteers of environmental destruction worldwide at LEAST clothe, feed, and shelter those who lose their property, livelihood, and freedom due to climate change? Or will the blame be ignored as they pay billions to manufacture a popular message and dialogue to escape responsibility? I get the feeling the latter will be tried - we somehow celebrate tort reform as a way to keep parasites from suing over cancer causing pollution or "intentionally" burning their crotch with hot coffee. Then we thank them for legislating away our rights.
In other real news, not fake, Arctic sea ice extent is probably in Spring free fall. But you smart folks in WUnderland are already on top of that.
Quoting 43. barbamz:

Record-breaking climate change pushes world into 'uncharted territory'
Earth is a planet in upheaval, say scientists, as the World Meteorological Organisation publishes analysis of recent heat highs and ice lows
The Guardian, Damian Carrington, Tuesday 21 March 2017 00.39 GMT
The record-breaking heat that made 2016 the hottest year ever recorded has continued into 2017, pushing the world into "truly uncharted territory", according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
The WMO's assessment of the climate in 2016, published on Tuesday, reports unprecedented heat across the globe, exceptionally low ice at both poles and surging sea-level rise. ...

More see link above.


The summary at one glance. Click to enlarge.
Official WMO press release.


It seems that we're getting 'close to the edge of the falls', ...couple of years or so, and over and down we go.
Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.
Quoting 50. ozelloslim:

Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.
Edit: I found the wunderground hurricane archive but it is not as easy to find as it was. I hope it's not going away.

NOAA has a hurricane archive site but it is not as user-friendly. I suggest bookmarking it in case the wunderground hurricane archive goes away.
I was listening to the radio today at 5:00 PM CST to catch the news. The meteorologist opened with, "..with today being the last day of Spring..". Seriously. This is what he said. I highly suspect that he was looking at the forecast temperatures for this week and not at the calendar.
I like the idea of the teenagers suing the US for evidence of Exxon's knowledge of climate change. If they get it, wouldn't that imply that Exxon went ahead with their "experiment" of continuing their practice without informing those who would be affected? I wonder if lawsuits citing the Nuremberg code could hold corporations (persons in the US) and/or our government accountable. That could help put pressure on to turn things around. 'The first tenet of the code is very clear: "The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential."'

Another angle would be crimes against humanity -- according to wiki: They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority. Murder, massacres, dehumanization, genocide, human experimentation, extrajudicial punishments, death squads, forced disappearances, military use of children, kidnappings, unjust imprisonment, slavery, cannibalism, torture, rape, and political or racial repression may reach the threshold of crimes against humanity if they are part of a widespread or systematic practice.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me there would be a case to be made if it's not already happening.
Quoting 54. awedbynature:

I like the idea of the teenagers suing the US for evidence of Exxon's knowledge of climate change. If they get it, wouldn't that imply that Exxon went ahead with their "experiment" of continuing their practice without informing those who would be affected? I wonder if lawsuits citing the Nuremberg code could hold corporations (persons in the US) and/or our government accountable. That could help put pressure on to turn things around. 'The first tenet of the code is very clear: "The voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential."'

Another angle would be crimes against humanity -- according to wiki: They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority. Murder, massacres, dehumanization, genocide, human experimentation, extrajudicial punishments, death squads, forced disappearances, military use of children, kidnappings, unjust imprisonment, slavery, cannibalism, torture, rape, and political or racial repression may reach the threshold of crimes against humanity if they are part of a widespread or systematic practice.

I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me there would be a case to be made if it's not already happening.


The biggest legal issue that Exxon faces on this now is the withholding of information that Exxon has on its own studies of climate change from its shareholders. This is intent to deceive investors in order to profit. I am not a lawyer either, but this is my understanding of what the current case is involved in.
Quoting 50. ozelloslim:

Pardon my inability to find the world maps of tropical cyclones. Where are they? What do I click to access these maps that have been readily avalible at the top of the opening page. Please help me.



I have the old WU Radar bookmarked.
Link

A couple of clicks on the right side menu will get you there.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:06 PM WST March 21 2017
===========================

System #1
---------------

A weak tropical low lies near 14.7S 117.2E (about 650 km north northwest of port Hedland). It is forecast to move southwest and then south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Model guidance does not develop it into a tropical cyclone and maintains a tropical low before it crosses the Pilbara coast during Friday.

The environment is not extremely favorable for development into a tropical cyclone. However, if the system does show good development despite the environment there is a chance it could reach category 1 intensity during Friday before landfall.

From Saturday the system will weaken as it moves south overland.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: MODERATE
Friday: MODERATE

System #2
---------------

The monsoon trough lies along 12.0S between Cocos Islands and Christmas Island. A tropical low is expected to form in the trough near 12.0S 95.0-100.0E (Cocos Islands vicinity) on Wednesday but should move away to the southeast. The system is expected to develop on Thursday with an increased risk of becoming a tropical cyclone on Friday over open waters.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===========================
Wednesday: LOW
Thursday: LOW
Friday: MODERATE
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

And as I noted on the earlier Blog this morning, there might be the possibility of seeing a Modoki El Nino this year (once we get past the Spring Barrier) based on the current "reverse" equatorial warming trend from West to East as opposed to the traditional East to West warming (off of Peru); time will tell once we get to May and June:



Quoting 21. Ed22:

My thinking, No El nino.
Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



This does not look to me like an El Nino. I am dumbfounded on what it might be. The ocean side of El Nino is an eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin wave which propagates along the thermocline. Kelvin waves cannot, for dynamical reasons, propagate west and thermocline disturbances that originate on the east side of the pacific basin, propagate west as a type of rossby wave. But I don't know what is going on here and solicit comment from oceanographers (who worked out the orignal Kelvin Wave theory in the 1970s)


my thoughts
I think it will be neutral then go back to La Nina like 2011

my other thoughts on possibility is Neutral and I am really doubting the idea of an El Nino but f any kinda El Nino it would be a weak Modoki El Nino

This Doesn't look like an El Nino is coming







Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW XX
3:12 PM WST March 21 2017
============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low located at 15.3S 116.8E or about 590 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 600 km north of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The low is likely to move towards the south towards the Pilbara coast on Wednesday and has a moderate chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity as it nears the coast on Thursday.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Onslow and Wallal during Thursday. Heavy rain is likely near the track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Wallal to Onslow including Karratha and Port Hedland of Western Australia
r.i.p forecaster Parker. sad to see younger folks than me dying. happening a lot nowadays
interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr
btw me talking about 2011 and possible La Nina return idea

2011 also had similar warming off of Peru as is occurring now
2011 had similar cooler anomalies in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (Northeast and SouthEast) as now ((although 2011 had drastically cooler and wide spreading anomalies likely due to fact the 2010/11 Nina event was much stronger than 2016/17 Nina event))
2011 had cooler waters in the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska similar to now (2017 has the cooler waters covering more of the GOA than 2011)
2011 Sub Surface Anomaly profiles are the same now (despite the actual anomaly values being steeper in both warm and cool during 2011)



now the differences between 2011 and now
La Nina in 2010/2011 was stronger
the 10/11 event ended later and to that Neutral conditions started later
the cool anomalies we larger in size in 2011
the sub surface anomaly gradient was much steeper in both warm and cool


Surface Anomalies
2011 during Neutral ENSO



2017 (now) during Neutral ENSO



Sub-Surface Anomalies

2011 during Neutral ENSO



2017 (now) during Neutral ENSO

Quoting 62. islander101010:

interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr


what are you talking about
Quoting 62. islander101010:

interesting the models keeps the action north of the western carib again this yr


looking at SSTA trends over past few weeks to couple months if trends continue

MDR, Caribbean, GOM, and US E Coast is where all the action will be and the Bahamas, Northern Tropical Atlantic, and Sub Tropical Atlantic will be left out this year

Good Morning Wunderkid, You are wrong about a El-Nino not beginning to materialize. Just take a look below of the Sea surface temps across the Indian Ocean. We have seen a dramatic reversal in recent weeks with major cooling near Australia and major warming near Africa this signature is the kiss of death for any La-Nina or Neutral Enso. This event is throwing many in the scientific weather community for a loop and this event has just begun.

For example you have Michael Ventric which uses his Enso Index which clearly shows La-Nina in the atmosphere but what has happened recently has been very unusual with a lack of WWB we have seen dramatic shifts across the Pacific many from the East when typically these changes start in the west. Just take a gander at this sea surface layout across the Globe and you can't honestly say that El-Nino is NOT materializing.

With a warming Globe we are seeing something this year that is very rare with respects to this El-Nino infact may models show El-Nino in place during April infact its getting close now. As for the atmospheric conditions they will catch up to what is going on across the Pacific as there is usually a lag.



Bom Enso model


CFSv2
Quoting 66. RobertWC:

FLOODS IN PERU 2017. DISASTROUS LANDSLIDES 2017


Look at this Robert. Nino 1&2 now over 3C!

Intense storms over parts of the New South Wales north coast have flooded farmland and damaged crops.


The community of New Italy, near Woodburn, received almost half a metre of rain on Saturday alone, while Dorrigo had 430 millimetres over the weekend. ....................... Mr McCormack said a fall of 443 millimetres at New Italy resulted in water backing up in places that had not been flooded for years.

Link
Quoting 67. StormTrackerScott:

Good Morning Wunderkid, You are wrong about a El-Nino not beginning to materialize. Just take a look below of the Sea surface temps across the Indian Ocean. We have seen a dramatic reversal in recent weeks with major cooling near Australia and major warming near Africa this signature is the kiss of death for any La-Nina or Neutral Enso. This event is throwing many in the scientific weather community for a loop and this event has just begun.

For example you have Michael Ventric which uses his Enso Index which clearly shows La-Nina in the atmosphere but what has happened recently has been very unusual with a lack of WWB we have seen dramatic shifts across the Pacific many from the East when typically these changes start in the west. Just take a gander at this sea surface layout across the Globe and you can't honestly say that El-Nino is NOT materializing.

With a warming Globe we are seeing something this year that is very rare with respects to this El-Nino infact may models show El-Nino in place during April infact its getting close now. As for the atmospheric conditions they will catch up to what is going on across the Pacific as there is usually a lag.



Bom Enso model


CFSv2



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino
Quoting 68. StormTrackerScott:



Look at this Robert. Nino 1&2 now over 3C!




uh huh... sure...

using CPC 1+2 is 2.6C
Folks over 70,000 homes destroyed in Peru from floods which has affected over a half million people. @Bob Henson you can add this as number 2 for Billion Dollar disasters so far this year and this event in Peru is far from over. Look at this video below of a woman walking out of a mudslide!

Capital Weather Gang‏Verified account @capitalweather 20h20 hours ago

Incredibly, this woman crawled out of a mudslide in Peru last week. Torrential rain is expected to continue.Link
Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino


I did and its here. I said we would have another El-Nino right after the 2015/2016 event and the reason I gave was because of the PDO being so positive. So I was right.
Good morning, folks.
Another flashflood (huaico) yesterday afternoon in the town of Viru in Peru. It was the seventh that hit this town/region (report in Spanish):


huaico golpeo de forma devastadora en Viru 20/03/2017

Aerial view of the inundated city of Trujillo (some miles north of Viru) which saw its stongest "huaico" (so far) on Sunday (it was its sixth in just a week), damaging especially the historic center (some of many videos of this flashflood: LINK, LINK):


ESTUDIANTE DE TRUJILLO GRABA CON SU DRON LA INUNDACION
Quoting 71. wunderkidcayman:



uh huh... sure...

using CPC 1+2 is 2.6C


That's an average for the week last week. Its a new week and the values have only risen past 3C just in the last couple of days so expect the CPC next Monday to go higher than 2.6C for Nino 1&2. Again Wunderkid whether you believe this event is coming or not all you have to do is look at this sea surface structure below. We have a seen major changes over the last few weeks across the Pacific.

You are now beginning to see a cool horse shore around the materializing El-Nino. Also the MDR is not looking good for prospects of a active hurricane season.

The Piura region, a weather station in Morropón recorded 43 inches of rain since the start of 2017. At this point of the year — early March — Morropón’s average rainfall is about 4 inches.
Good Morning Friends; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look:

also back in 2011 during the Neutral Period the models including the CFS the BOM POAMA and yes even the trusty Euro ECMWF showed 2011 going into a El Nino which didn't happen and we went back into the La Nina instead and at the same time frame the big issue was Spring Predictability Barrier and this might just be the exact reason the models now are showing the same
Here is an illustration of what is driving the disaster in Peru.


And the inbound jet from the Pacific and Convective Outlook for today; wait until the jet moves across Conus later this week before we can determine when/where the severe weather will ramp up going into the weekend:


Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic City fight to stay above water – video

Sea levels are rising. For many cities on the the eastern shores of the United States, the problem is existential. We take a look at how Miami and Atlantic City are tackling climate change, and the challenges they face under a skeptical Trump administration that plans to cut funding for environmental programs

Quoting 70. wunderkidcayman:



lol this is coming from someone who said last year would have an El Nino

give it up

look this year its gonna be either La Nina or Neutral this year and by a stroke of 1 in 65 or so luck we do get an El Nino it will be weak and likely a Modoki El Nino

I sense a loooooong bout of silence coming up from you as this year evolves.
And an overnight post from Science Mag as to the pending cuts in science; the intelligencia and academics are usually the first to go in a populist political climate driven by isolationism. However, given the dangers and challenges related to climate change, and the ongoing need for kids in the US pursue careers in the sciences so we can compete in the world as well as understand what it actually going on, this is the worst thing that you could do at this time:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/rese arch-afterthought-first-trump-budget


The 2018 budget proposal that President Donald Trump unveiled last week confirms two things that U.S. scientists have long suspected: The new president is no fan of research, and his administration has no overarching strategy for funding science.

Deep proposed cuts to research at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offer evidence that Trump doesn’t see science—of any kind—as a spending priority. And along with neglect there’s indifference. The budget blueprint says nothing about spending at the National Science Foundation (NSF), for example. It’s also silent on the research portfolios of the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, although science advocates are not sanguine about their prospects.

“We are disheartened and significantly concerned by the proposal, which clearly devalues science and research,” says Christine McEntee, who leads the American Geophysical Union in Washington, D.C. “If enacted, [it] would be a step backward for scientific progress.”

“The unprecedented budget cuts … would cripple the nation’s ability to support and deliver the important biomedical research that provides hope to all,” warns Darrell G. Kirch, head of the Association of American Medical Colleges in Washington, D.C.

The plan covers $1.1 trillion in discretionary spending. (The more detailed May budget will also cover changes to mandatory social welfare programs and interest payments on the national debt.) The discretionary pot is now roughly split between defense and nondefense agencies. But Trump wants to hike spending on defense and national security by 10%, and pay for that $54 billion increase by cutting spending at all other agencies. To get there, Trump would cut nearly 20% at NIH and DOE science programs, and make even larger research reductions at EPA and NOAA. In contrast, NASA overall would receive only a 1% cut, although its earth sciences division would shrink by 6%.


Quoting 81. Xandra:

Sea level rise: Miami and Atlantic City fight to stay above water – video

Sea levels are rising. For many cities on the the eastern shores of the United States, the problem is existential. We take a look at how Miami and Atlantic City are tackling climate change, and the challenges they face under a skeptical Trump administration that plans to cut funding for environmental programs




South Beach floods almost every high tide. I know because I've seen it happen first hand. I was down there a few months back and couldn't believe the flooding that occurs down there during high tide.
Quoting 73. StormTrackerScott:



I did and its here. I said we would have another El-Nino right after the 2015/2016 event and the reason I gave was because of the PDO being so positive. So I was right.


but we didn't right after the 15/16 event we had a La Nina so you were wrong

Quoting 75. StormTrackerScott:



That's an average for the week last week. Its a new week and the values have only risen past 3C just in the last couple of days so expect the CPC next Monday to go higher than 2.6C for Nino 1&2. Again Wunderkid whether you believe this event is coming or not all you have to do is look at this sea surface structure below. We have a seen major changes over the last few weeks across the Pacific.

You are now beginning to see a cool horse shore around the materializing El-Nino. Also the MDR is not looking good for prospects of a active hurricane season.




look the data from tropicaltidbits updates every 0,6,12,18Z look that does not give you a clear idea whats really gong on every 6hr to day changes will always go up and down and whats needed is a smooth clear cut data which is better off getting at a 5-7 day period rather than 6hr-1 day that's why CPC uses that

anyway you go continue on with El Nino is coming one day you will get it right
at this point in time I don't see it happening this year but we will see
Quoting 82. cRRKampen:


I sense a loooooong bout of silence coming up from you as this year evolves.


maybe, maybe not
maybe its not me the bout of silence will coming from
we will see

as I said at this point in time I don't see anything really standing out that says we will have an El Nino this year

that may change as we go further on in the year I doubt it but still we wait and see
Less science, more bombs, personal and business ties to Russia, and we are paying for the Wall (not Mexico)..........Off to a "great" start..................
Also one last thng you want cold hose shoe structure around materializing El-Nino

hell here is this for ya

2011




same hose shoe structure and El Nino did not happen only a couple months later back to full-fledged La Nina

How Americans Think About Climate Change, in Six Maps
New York Times, MARCH 21, 2017
Americans overwhelmingly believe that global warming is happening, and that carbon emissions should be scaled back. But fewer are sure that the changes will harm them personally. New data released by Yale researchers gives the most detailed view yet of public opinion on global warming. ...
More see link above or visit directly the site of Yale: LINK
Quoting 87. weathermanwannabe:

Less science, more bombs, personal and business ties to Russia, and we are paying for the Wall (not Mexico)..........Off to a great start..................


lol you had to know that was gonna happen it was never gonna be great
Quoting 84. StormTrackerScott:



South Beach floods almost every high tide. I know because I've seen it happen first hand. I was down there a few months back and couldn't believe the flooding that occurs down there during high tide.


I guess they were REALLY serious about Florida being underwater around 2050 .-.
The bigger related issue for South Florida is salt water intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer; it is already well documented that salt water is currently flowing into it several miles inland into Central Fort Lauderdale and there is high tide flooding, which I have seen, along AIA next to Ft. Lauderdale Beach on occasion. Point being that the canal steel gates can only do so much, and not much, in terms of salt water seeping through the porous underground limestone under South Florida during those now more frequent high tide events....................They will probably run out of local fresh water, in the shorter term, before the coast is a few feet underwater in several decades unless dams and seawalls are erected.
Germany's national weather service DWD yesterday published a guide for reports about the current flooding in Peru and its present coastal El Nino in respect to the question whether a full blown El Nino is about to develop (LINK to the pdf in German with some maps). Down bottom: It's possible but yet very uncertain what will happen in autumn:

Attempt of a translation of some of the lines:
... it's possible that an El Niño develops from near-coastal warming, and indeed the ensemble prediction in the median (a means more robust against outliers) of the seasonal prediction model of the DWD forecasts an exceedance of the limit of an anomaly greater than 0.5 Kelvin, currently from May 2017 on, thus the setting of an El Niño event in autumn 2017 and thus usually also in the winter 2017/2018. By October 2017, however, the uncertainty remains very large, from ENSO-neutral (no significant anomaly) up to a fulminant El Niño with an anomaly well above 2 degrees Kelvin.
Here is a portion of an October Sun Sentinel article on the Ft. Lauderdale flooding issue: this is science "fact"..................And the pic from the city section of Ft. Lauderdale just to the East of Downtown:

Olas on Las Olas

King tides, the seasonal reminder that much of South Florida is a coastal community, poured salt water into streets, front yards and even some homes in parts of Broward County on Sunday, a preview of two more soggy days to come.

"It's not the end of the world, but it is a pain," said Larry Danielle, 38, as he stacked sandbags at the end of the driveway at his home in the 2500 block of Hibiscus Place in Fort Lauderdale's Las Olas Isles neighborhood.

The cause of the higher-than-usual tides is a combination of meteorological and astronomical factors, including a full moon, a remnant swell from Hurricane Nicole — a large storm moving slowly over the North Atlantic — and an onshore wind flow, according to forecasters at the National Weather Service in Miami.

Water was several inches deep along Las Olas Boulevard, where sandbags were piled in the doorways of several businesses, and signs urged drivers to proceed slowly.

In front of Danielle's house, where flowing water was about a foot deep at 9:30 a.m. Sunday, was a "No wake zone" sign.

"I have learned to live with this, but I would rather not live with it," said Danielle, who designs flight simulators.

Quoting 86. wunderkidcayman:



maybe, maybe not
maybe its not me the bout of silence will coming from
we will see

as I said at this point in time I don't see anything really standing out that says we will have an El Nino this year

that may change as we go further on in the year I doubt it but still we wait and see

Well, strange developments presently.

Also, Niño is defined as anomaly from a baseline. Holding a baseline at say 1951-1980 values (to charge the issue) implies virtually constant 'El Niño' by this time or very soon, and no La Niña anymore.
OIL SURGE

The Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico has emerged as the new poster boy of the U.S.
Some are even predicting this hotbed of shale activity could eventually surpass the colossal Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia as the world's biggest oilfield.

"People just don't seem to realize how big the Permian is," Sheffield, known as the "King of the Permian"


Quoting 61. islander101010:

r.i.p forecaster Parker. sad to see younger folks than me dying. happening a lot nowadays


That's because everyone is younger than you, now. :-J
What's funny about the Oil industry is that, they drill drill drill, then have oversupply that puts them out of work and drives oil prices down into the ground.
I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


I was a long time lurker until recently and this is something me and my soon to be spouse have debated in the last few months. We currently live in southern Michigan but both of us are not winter people at all. Given that we have no kids and both work jobs that are in demand worldwide(healthcare) we want to move.

The answer is really complicated because it's hard to some *any* place not being severely impacted. We both love the idea of Australia and New Zealand, but both have been, and continue to be impacted by climate issues(not to mention the earthquakes/volcanic activity in NZ)

Costa Rica was actually pretty high on the list due to strong conservation efforts there and tropical climate that is generally out of the hurricane zone.

Staying to the US we've looked at places like Greenville, SC and Chattanooga TN as well, but those areas are prone to tornadoes and drought. Pretty much where ever you look in the world there is some trade off.

I'd love to see other answers as well.
99. ToesInTheWater
9:50 AM EDT on March 21, 2017

With about 30 years left, you will be relatively safe in any region which is not prone to natural disasters which would have adequate food, electrical/power, a relatively stable government not subject wild economic disasters, and affordable housing and available jobs (if you need or want to work)...........Actually, I would stay in the US away from the coast and away from tornado alley, not in California because of earth quakes, and away from extreme cold in the North and extreme heat further South.....................The Carolina Mountains would be my choice............................ My ideal choice outside of the US would be on a Caribbean Island or Pacific Island but too expensive and hurricanes and sea level rise........................Or I would settle for the Florida Keys until my lawn is under water.
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks

Albania
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks

Punta Arenas/Chile.
Might well be 'shall' instead of 'could', eighteen months or sooner.

The enemy is your fellow man in dire straits, and the nukes. You need to calculate from that.
Anyway, Paradise 2.0 is around the corner. Please continue this, folks. Please.
105. elioe
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.
Quoting 105. elioe:



Hmmm... some half-educated guesses for this way too general question.

Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and northern portion of Lower Peninsula. Coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Cape Verde Islands. Nordic countries. Hokkaido. Ascension Island. South Island of New Zealand. Tasmania. Aleutian and Kuril Islands, Kamchatka Peninsula. Chiloe Island.

And the specific location should be a few meters above current sea level, away from landslide-prone slopes, and away from glaciated volcanoes.

Nordic countries are heating up like crazy. The czar is next door. The area is open to climate refugee tsunamis.
Pity, because Tromsø is my other destination of choice (still is, actually).

The NE of the US, forget it: everyone will go there.

The enemy will be your fellow man in dire straits. That is the calculation to make.
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


Permian basin, you'll be protected by government and armed national guard protecting the oil. You'll have all the food and water you'll need paid by Joe and Jane taxpayer. Safe, peaceful, and quite out there (until a rig blows up, etc) Event of any catastrophe pretty low with experts out there.
Quoting 99. ToesInTheWater:

I'm going to miss the gang on here (many of them) when the blog changes. I don't do social media and I really don't like the disqus format. So I'm running out of time to ask my burning question of all you smart folks:
Where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks
I made my choice for after retirement, though I actually took the steps before. I wanted a relatively safe place from tropical storms, but with a moderate year-around climate; a relatively peaceful place politically, that is also striving to both care for its citizens and its environment and has declared itself opposed to war; and a place with a relatively low cost of living a simple quiet life. For me there is only one place to choose, and that's where I live -- 4000 feet up a mountain not quite 10 degrees North of the Equator, where the climate suits me fine, the vistas are beautiful, and the people are friendly. The only hitch is re-learning the Spanish I last studied briefly over 60 years ago. It's slow progress.
Loving these helpful answers so far (regarding my post #99). Reasoning about why you'd choose one place, but not another, is very welcome. If you want more time to consider your answer I'll repost the question on the next blog too.

Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:


Now, hurricane experts in the WU-comment section: your time has come! Apply for the vacant job at the NHC to tell them how to get their forecasts right, eventually, and when to name a system :-)))
50 degrees now
high of 54f possible then down to 10f by midnight

spring rollercoaster is in full effect

Last remnant of North American ice sheet on track to vanish
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017
The last piece of the ice sheet that once blanketed much of North America is doomed to disappear in the next several centuries, says a new study by researchers at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia and the University of Colorado Boulder.
The Barnes Ice Cap, a Delaware-sized feature on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is melting at a rapid pace, driven by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that have elevated Arctic temperatures. The ice cap, while still 500 meters thick, is slated to melt in about 300 years under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. ...


As a former student of humanities I like to read this:
Critical thinking instruction in humanities reduces belief in pseudoscience
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017 by Matt Shipman
A recent study by North Carolina State University researchers finds that teaching critical thinking skills in a humanities course significantly reduces student beliefs in "pseudoscience" that is unsupported by facts. ...
For this study, the researchers worked with 117 students in three different classes. Fifty-nine students were enrolled in a psychology research methods course, which taught statistics and study design, but did not specifically address critical thinking. The other 58 students were enrolled in one of two courses on historical frauds and mysteries - one of which included honors students, many of whom were majors in science, engineering and mathematics disciplines.
The psychology class served as a control group. ...
The control group students did not change their beliefs - but students in both history courses had lower beliefs in pseudoscience by the end of the semester.
Students in the history course for honors students decreased the most in their pseudoscientific beliefs; on average, student beliefs dropped an entire point on the belief scale for topics covered in class, and by 0.5 points on topics not covered in class. There were similar, but less pronounced, changes in the non-honors course. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 98. RitaEvac:

What's funny about the Oil industry is that, they drill drill drill, then have oversupply that puts them out of work and drives oil prices down into the ground.


This is a classic example of the dog chasing its tail.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 110. nrtiwlnvragn:





He was at TWC first, then became NHC director now he's going back to TWC. Probably went to NHC to get that government pension that he'll receive now later in retirement
Quoting 114. barbamz:

Last remnant of North American ice sheet on track to vanish
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017
The last piece of the ice sheet that once blanketed much of North America is doomed to disappear in the next several centuries, says a new study by researchers at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia and the University of Colorado Boulder.
The Barnes Ice Cap, a Delaware-sized feature on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, is melting at a rapid pace, driven by increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that have elevated Arctic temperatures. The ice cap, while still 500 meters thick, is slated to melt in about 300 years under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions. ...


As a former student of humanities I like to read this:
Critical thinking instruction in humanities reduces belief in pseudoscience
PhysOrg, March 20, 2017 by Matt Shipman
A recent study by North Carolina State University researchers finds that teaching critical thinking skills in a humanities course significantly reduces student beliefs in "pseudoscience" that is unsupported by facts. ...
For this study, the researchers worked with 117 students in three different classes. Fifty-nine students were enrolled in a psychology research methods course, which taught statistics and study design, but did not specifically address critical thinking. The other 58 students were enrolled in one of two courses on historical frauds and mysteries - one of which included honors students, many of whom were majors in science, engineering and mathematics disciplines.
The psychology class served as a control group. ...
The control group students did not change their beliefs - but students in both history courses had lower beliefs in pseudoscience by the end of the semester.
Students in the history course for honors students decreased the most in their pseudoscientific beliefs; on average, student beliefs dropped an entire point on the belief scale for topics covered in class, and by 0.5 points on topics not covered in class. There were similar, but less pronounced, changes in the non-honors course. ...

More see link above.

The one on critical thinking is behind a paywall. One of their references is free to read on google scholar "Fitzgerald, J., & Baird, V. A. (2011). Taking a step back: teaching critical thinking by distinguishing appropriate type of evidence. Political Science and Politics, 44(3), 619–624. Link
.