WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tornado rips Shreveport; Typhoon Mirinae deluging the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on October 30, 2009

Between one and five tornadoes touched down in northwest Louisiana and southwest Arkansas on Thursday. The most damaging tornado hit Shreveport, Louisiana at 5:15 pm EDT, ripping the steeple off of a church and hurling it onto a car. No fatalities were blamed on the tornadoes, though one man was killed when he drove his car into a fallen tree. The cold front responsible for spawning the severe weather will be over Alabama today, where the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts from the storm exceeded six inches in many regions (Figure 1), and the cold front draped across the center of the country is responsible for flood warnings for a wide swath, from Texas to Illinois. See our severe weather map or consult our wundermap with the USGS River layer turned on to see where flooding is occurring.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the line of storms that passed through northern Louisiana yesterday and today.

Colorado digs out
The Denver, Colorado area continues to dig out from the biggest October snowstorm to affect the region since 1997. The town of Pinecliff in the mountains just northwest of Denver recorded 46 inches of snow from the storm.

Typhoon Mirinae deluges the Philippines
Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae's deluge has begun over the Philippines' Luzon Islands, as the storm's eye nears the east coast of the island. Mirinae--who's name is taken from the Korean word for "Milky Way"--did not intensify, and now appears to be suffering from land interaction, since the southwest portion of the typhoon's circulation is now over land. The latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, a decrease in the storm's organization, and warming of the cloud tops of Mirinae's eyewall clouds--all indicative of weakening. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined a bit over the past twelve hours, and it appears likely that Mirinae will be a Category 1 typhoon with 80 - 90 mph winds at landfall near 18 UTC (2 pm EDT) today. Mirinae's primary threat will be heavy rain, and microwave imagery shows that the typhoon's heaviest rains of one inch per hour lie in the southern eyewall. With the eye expected to track over or slightly south of the capital of Manila, this means that Mirinae's heaviest rains of 8 - 12 inches will fall just south of Manila, with 4 - 8 inches expected over the city (Figure 3). The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. Flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas of Manila, where more than one million people are living in flooded districts. The combined death tolls from Typhoon Ketsana and Typhoon Parma in the Philippines this year now exceed 1,000, and Mirinae will undoubtedly add to that figure. However, Manila is more prepared for this storm than it was for Typhoon Ketsana, and I am hopeful that the death toll from Mirinae will be far less. Mirinae is expected to emerge over the South China Sea tomorrow and strike south-central Vietnam on Monday. With wind shear expected to steadily increase over the storm, and the typhoon disrupted from its passage over Luzon, it is unlikely that Mirinae would hit Vietnam as anything stronger than a tropical storm with 55 mph winds.

Extreme storm photographers Jim Edds and James Reynolds are in Manila for the arrival of Mirinae, and have posted a video of the surf along the shore from the typhoon at the extremestorms.com website.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Typhoon Mirinae at 05 UTC Friday, October 20. A the time, Mirinae was a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.


Figure 3. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Saturday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core, passing just south of the capital of Manila. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 32N 50W, is cutting off from the jet stream and will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next 3 - 4 days. It is possibly that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. The storm could bring high winds to Bermuda on Monday. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Most of the models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week.

Jeff Masters
no grilling tonight
no grilling tonight
I did the last mowing less than a week ago ....

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update & good morning
The people in the Phillipines must be praying for the end to the TC season,its been a brutal season for them.
good morning,

earthquake swarms have started again 6.9 - 7.1 hit japan this morning and i think they will continue for the next week.
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
We'll come back in 2010, should be a different season by then in the Atlantic
I suppose one of the biggest factors for the shear fest in 2009 is the fact that we have an El Nino, which has enhanced westerlies over the Atlantic basin due to increased convection over the East-Pac. Another contributing factor you could mention is the Caribbean low-level easterly jet, which destroyed Erika and I believe Ana to some extent. There is evidence of a correlation between El Nino and the strength of this jet. The accelerated easterly flow in the Eastern Caribbean can cause an area of low-level divergence in the entrance region of the jet, which suppresses convection there. Also, the accelerated easterly jet can increase shear as well, because it increases the vector difference between the 850 mb wind vector and 200 mb.

More info on that:

http://ams.allenpres...9BAMS2822.1.pdf

Adrian

Quoting WaterWitch11:
good morning,

earthquake swarms have started again 6.9 - 7.1 hit japan this morning and i think they will continue for the next week.
Good morning WW11 -7.1 is a big earthquake. I was wondering if you received the E-mail I posted to you?
Some nino effects may linger through 2010 even if the nino 3.4 SSTs come down. It's early but right now i wouldn't be forecasting an active hurricane season next year either...Having said that its somewhat unlikely if the El Nino continues to strengthen now that it will affect the 2010 season-- however it would not be unprecedented. El Nino usually fades by late winter.

adrian
Hey, Aussie, hope you are still on. Hope your family in the Philippines stay well. That graphics of the storm's path and your home didn't look that good. I mean the graphic was good, bad scenario. At least it didn't strengthen, but according to Dr. Master's blog, they are a little better prepared, but still, that is a lot of rain they expect.
Thanks for the post Dr. Masters.


At least it looks as if the higher top clouds have come down a bit. Hope that means less rainfall.
Quoting RitaEvac:
We'll come back in 2010, should be a different season by then in the Atlantic


Does this mean you won't be on until next year? We have some interesting weather in the winter, too? Blizzard, Nor'easters. Hope you stay on.
Why is the blog so quiet this morning? I haven't been on since yesterday. Did something happen to everybody?
Good evening all. We have lost contact with our family in Central Luzon, probably due to power outages. I will try to get in contact with them tomorrow and I hope all is well. The storm track has now moved 22miles south of our place which is some good news.
Will keep everyone updated.
I don;t know, Grothar...how are you this morning?

I was hoping to find a few of the other tech guys on this morning as I have some questions about something...looks like I;'m out of luck...anyone lurking here that is a tech professional, please WUMail me? Got a fun one...
Quoting hurricane23:
Some nino effects may linger through 2010 even if the nino 3.4 SSTs come down. It's early but right now i wouldn't be forecasting an active hurricane season next year either...Having said that its somewhat unlikely if the El Nino continues to strengthen now that it will affect the 2010 season-- however it would not be unprecedented. El Nino usually fades by late winter.

adrian



am with you all the way other then the EL Nino fades a way part by late winter shhh dont tell ca that we need all the rain we can get
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good evening all. We have lost contact with our family in Central Luzon, probably due to power outages. I will try to get in contact with them tomorrow and I hope all is well. The storm track has now moved 22miles south of our place which is some good news.
Will keep everyone updated.


Sorry to hear that, Aussie. I'm sure you're right though...it's just power outages. How are you otherwise?
Hey, Flood, What kind of help do you need?
Quoting Floodman:


Sorry to hear that, Aussie. I'm sure you're right though...it's just power outages. How are you otherwise?

It's been a tiring day, but its my little boys 6TH birthday today(Saturday)
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Good Evening
Quoting StormW:
Aussie,
Hope your family is ok. Wish your boy a Happy Birthday for me.

Today is my oldest son's B'day...15 years old.

Will do,
Wish your son a Happy Birthday from us here in Sydney Australia
25. P451
About an hour old....from the previous blog.

Good Morning.

12 Hour Color Enhanced WV Loop



Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Storm, glad you're still here. Quick question, how far out does El Niño go into the Pacific. It looked to me like the Central Pacific had some really warm temperatures. I always thought that the El Niño was closer to the S. American coast?
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, Flood, What kind of help do you need?


Multiple malware/trojan installs on a mission critical computer. Reformat is NOT an option so today will be a long day...
Happy Birthday to Aussie and Storm's kids!
Quoting Floodman:


Multiple malware/trojan installs on a mission critical computer. Reformat is NOT an option so today will be a long day...


Sorry, I thought you need to know how to reset your clock for the time change this week-end.
30-OCT-2009 07:03:39 29.15 129.90 6.9 35.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS

Quoting Orcasystems:
30-OCT-2009 07:03:39 29.15 129.90 6.9 35.0 RYUKYU ISLANDS


Saw the same thing. Didn't see any 7.1. Small one in Northern Japan, 6.9 near Okinawan Islands.
Grothar, back in the day when I worked IT for large coporations and something like this happened a number of us would get together and discuss the issue and then formulate a removal plan; this one is screwed up in exactly the same way as another PC we had here and while I'm very adept at working on issues of this type, it pretty much whipped me and I was forced to format...looking to maybe discuss this with a coupe of people and see if anyone has a better way of dealing with it
35. P451
24 Hour Color Enhanced IR Loop - TX/LA

Quoting Floodman:


Multiple malware/trojan installs on a mission critical computer. Reformat is NOT an option so today will be a long day...

I know you don't want to hear it, but install Linux.

Or, first edit registry and restart so you can clean without the junk running. For an easy start-up checker, I like Startup Inspector. Checks registry for everything that runs at startup and allows changes. Gives advice on the programs it finds are running at startup, too.

But I am not a Windoze guy...am a cert Linux admin, though.
Quoting Floodman:


Multiple malware/trojan installs on a mission critical computer. Reformat is NOT an option so today will be a long day...

try downloading Malwarebytes' Anti-Malware and do a scan
38. P451
Quoting StormW:


Central PAC does have very warm water...in fact, with the latest SOI crash, another Kelvin Wave should warm the water some more in the EPAC. I don't think however we will see a strong event, and I don't believe it will stick around or peak in the summer.

It all depends on the event on how far west the warm water extends. Remember this?





1997 Huh. That's interesting.

Colorado digs out
The Denver, Colorado area continues to dig out from the biggest October snowstorm to affect the region since 1997. The town of Pinecliff in the mountains just northwest of Denver recorded 46 inches of snow from the storm.

*rubs chin*
Flood,
What's the issue? WUmail me.
Good morning, everyone. Good to see Aussie on; I was holding my breath. I wish him and his family good fortune and an end of this rotten stuff hitting the Phillippines.

re missing tech friends, aggies, etc...hope they're still around because there were some real off-putting remarks yesterday afternoon, not about or by them, but by others not so smart or decent.

Anyway...today's daily Nat. Sit. report is really underwhelming. Wish there was more news regarding the extent of the flooding and tornadoes. I've gotten some particulars but sure would have appreciated a good overview.

The daily did contain a reprint of this info, though, which is related to discussions that have been on this blog on and off:

The Sun's Sneaky Variability

Every 11 years, the sun undergoes a furious upheaval. Dark sunspots burst forth from beneath the sun's surface. Explosions as powerful as a billion atomic bombs spark intense flares of high-energy radiation. Clouds of gas big enough to swallow planets break away from the sun and billow into space.
Almost none of the drama of Solar Maximum is visible to the human eye. Look at the sun in the noontime sky and—ho-hum—it's the same old bland ball of bright light.
"The problem is, human eyes are tuned to the wrong wavelength," explains Tom Woods, a solar physicist at the University of Colorado in Boulder. "If you want to get a good look at solar activity, you need to look in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV)."
EUV is a high-energy form of ultraviolet radiation with wavelengths between 1 and 120 nanometers. EUV photons are much more energetic and dangerous than the ordinary UV rays that cause sunburns. Fortunately for humans, Earth's atmosphere blocks solar EUV; otherwise a day at the beach could be fatal.
When the sun is active, intense solar EUV emissions can rise and fall by factors of thousands in just a matter of minutes. These surges heat Earth's upper atmosphere, puffing it up and increasing the drag on satellites. EUV photons also break apart atoms and molecules, creating a layer of ions in the upper atmosphere that can severely disturb radio signals.
To monitor these energetic photons, NASA is going to launch a sensor named "EVE," short for EUV Variability Experiment, onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory as early as this winter.
"EVE gives us the highest time resolution (10 sec) and the highest spectral resolution (< 0.1 nm) that we've ever had for measuring the sun, and we'll have it 24/7," says Woods, the lead scientist for EVE. "This is a huge improvement over past missions."
Although EVE is designed to study solar activity, its first order of business is to study solar inactivity. SDO is going to launch during the deepest solar minimum in almost 100 years. Sunspots, flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are at low ebb.
The sun's intrinsic variability and its potential for future changes are not fully understood—hence the need for EVE.
(excerpt from Science@NASA http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/27oct_eve.htm?list1329758 )
Quoting StormW:


Central PAC does have very warm water...in fact, with the latest SOI crash, another Kelvin Wave should warm the water some more in the EPAC. I don't think however we will see a strong event, and I don't believe it will stick around or peak in the summer.

It all depends on the event on how far west the warm water extends. Remember this?





As a matter of fact I do. Read some recent articles by people who work for Dr. Gray. Thier analysis is close to your. They do not believe the current El Nino will last into next summer. Wish I had the link. Just scrolling one day. Interesting to see what their December forecast will read.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know you don't want to hear it, but install Linux.

Or, first edit registry and restart so you can clean without the junk running. For an easy start-up checker, I like Startup Inspector. Checks registry for everything that runs at startup and allows changes. Gives advice on the programs it finds are running at startup, too.

But I am not a Windoze guy...am a cert Linux admin, though.


I'd love to, atmo, but this thing has shut down the runDLL routine so I can't run anything that isn't in it's list of acceptable progs. I've made up my mind that the guy who introduced this happy crap to my workplace will have his PCs taken away and have a "Magic Tablet" issued in their place...
Quoting AussieStorm:

try downloading Malwarebytes' Anti-Malware and do a scan


Not an option; the runDLL routine has been modified and I can't get to the taskmanager, let alone the registry...installing programs is not allowed, and the current install of Malwarebytes won't run without the runDLL routine fully enabled...

Well, I'm going to head off to bed. probably will have a very long day tomorrow.
Good night all
Stay safe.
"Magic Tablet" issued in their place...

What dat?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Well, I'm going to head off to bed. probably will have a very long day tomorrow.
Good night all
Stay safe.

Merci; vous aussi!
Quoting Floodman:


I'd love to, atmo, but this thing has shut down the runDLL routine so I can't run anything that isn't in it's list of acceptable progs. I've made up my mind that the guy who introduced this happy crap to my workplace will have his PCs taken away and have a "Magic Tablet" issued in their place...

Yuck. Can ya find out the prog name and regedit by hand to keep it from running on a restart?

Not sure how you are going to do anything with it in control like that.
flood,
does the rundll app show up as an page icon instead of showing up as an application,I've seen a virus that modifies the rundll32 application.
Thinking that sounds like an instance where I would look for a way to boot from CD and edit the registry without anything running from the hard drive...good luck Flood.

WARNING: do not do this if files are encrypted on this machine!

L8R.
Good morning... and thx Doc.
Quoting Floodman:


Not an option; the runDLL routine has been modified and I can't get to the taskmanager, let alone the registry...installing programs is not allowed, and the current install of Malwarebytes won't run without the runDLL routine fully enabled...




Flood, in the past I have removed the drive and placed it in an external case and cleaned it up as an external drive. Careful with the protection prior to connection. Good luck.
Oh, forgot to thank WUnderground and Dr. Masters -- so cool, and helpful!
... wundermap with the USGS River layer turned on to see where flooding is occurring.
Quoting Ossqss:



Flood, in the past I have removed the drive and placed it in an external case and cleaned it up as an external drive. Careful with the protection prior to connection. Good luck.

Isn't that technically the same as booting from disk? Same thing, really, assuming you have some partial, but competent OS available on CD/DVD.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Isn't that technically the same as booting from disk? Same thing, really, assuming you have some partial, but competent OS available on CD/DVD.


Yes, but when you have apps on another machine that can be used to scan and clean the drive as a USB, you are a bit ahead of the game. It can simplify the process if you don't have to do it manually. I am referring to it being connected as a USB drive, if you will, to a fully functional other computer :)
Quoting Ossqss:


Yes, but when you have apps on another machine that can be used to scan and clean the drive as a USB, you are a bit ahead of the game. It can simplify the process if you don't have to do it manually. I am referring to it being connected as a USB drive, if you will, to a fully functional other computer :)

Yeah, true.

I guess I am that guy that doesn't have complete trust in programmers. Some things, I would gladly do by hand, in which case mounting the hard drive with a disk-booted Linux is good enough. Had to do something like that when Windoze pushed a Video driver update which, naturally, left me with a black screen.
Thanks, everyone fo rthe suggestions...I have a number of guys from places that I have worked in the past that have sent me some utilities and software that should do the trick...I'll be back later to let y'all know how it goes
Best wishes sent to Aussie, I hope all turns out alright for you.

Happy birthday to the birthday boys.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, true.

I guess I am that guy that doesn't have complete trust in programmers. Some things, I would gladly do by hand, in which case mounting the hard drive with a disk-booted Linux is good enough. Had to do something like that when Windoze pushed a Video driver update which, naturally, left me with a black screen.


Once upon a time, atmo, I was a programmer...I wrote for a number of companies and a few government agencies (that's a story for another time)...why would you mistrust programmers? LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:

Programmers are famous for not documenting EXACTLY what a program does (myself included)...had more than a few nasty surprises after running someone's program and it doing something completely unexpected.

Open source code is better; whatever the program does will be spelled out by someone if not the original programmer.


I wrote code for a long time; my favorite are those guys that say "the code doceuments itself!". I made the horrible mistake of telling a team lead at one of the banks I worked for the I had some experience in COBOL...COBOL programmers never documented their code, so you get stuck updating someone's 25 year old code...721 functions, all with names like "N656-A2"...you end up having to read the code, making an assumption as to it's functionality and then running it in a test environment and hoping for the best...LOL
Quoting beell:
Flood, never used this and it has been around a while but allows you to add components as required and run an instance of virtual windows from a CD-hopefully allowing a virus scan.

Link


Thanks, Beell! I have an older version of BartsPE and I will use this one to update with

Thanks, Everyone for the help and suggestions...I've said it all along: this is one of the best online communities I've ever found...you guys are the best (well, most of you...the rest of you know who you are)
Please stop with the "IT" stuff...ya giving us a headache Guy's,..LOL
Quoting NEwxguy:
The people in the Phillipines must be praying for the end to the TC season,its been a brutal season for them.


In the Phillippines, the season never ends completely.
What a remarkable storm in the midwest--I wonder how much the Mississippi River will rise?
Spring is the Miss River rise season..Fall rains have lil or no effect on the Level usually.

Quoting Manhattancane:


In the Phillippines, the season never ends completely.


I hear ya,but this time of year is the most dangerous in that area.
Did any of you guys ever code any weather software? LOL!

Quoting Floodman:


Thanks, Beell! I have an older version of BartsPE and I will use this one to update with

Thanks, Everyone for the help and suggestions...I've said it all along: this is one of the best online communities I've ever found...you guys are the best (well, most of you...the rest of you know who you are)


What a nice guy!!!! If everything else fails, Flood, just buy the guy a new Laptop. It always works for me. Good Luck.
Quoting Patrap:
Spring is the Miss River rise season..Fall rains have lil or no effect on the Level usually.



That's true generally, but I'll be looking at the river levels next week to see if this storm will make an exception.
Grothar,
Add the pics of Spain King and Queen to my blog.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Did any of you guys ever code any weather software? LOL!


I am one of the guys behind the curtain on this one: Link
Quoting atmoaggie:

I am one of the guys behind the curtain on this one: Link


That looks like a GREAT piece of software. I was involved in this one: Link
as a vendor / developer. Too bad all my work can't revolve around weather!

Speaking of which, any model runs showing tropical development or has that gone by the wayside?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


That looks like a GREAT piece of software. I was involved in this one: Link
as a vendor / developer. Too bad all my work can't revolve around weather!

Speaking of which, any model runs showing tropical development or has that gone by the wayside?

I had little to do with the display software. Very involved in the data behind it...

ECMWF was giving an unbelievable BOC development earlier. We'll see if it persists and/or gets any support.

The Gulf is well on it's way to not being capable of supporting a TC. Red is rather favorable, blue is less than 26C:
Quoting presslord:
For those of you who missed my stellar performance on the Barometer Bob Show last night...
Link


What?? You were on the Barometer Bob show last night?
Geezz... you could have at least told us! lol
Quoting PcolaDan:
Grothar,
Add the pics of Spain King and Queen to my blog.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Grothar,
Add the pics of Spain King and Queen to my blog.


Saw them, great shots. Can't believe you got that close. The King sort of resembles the Duke of Edinburgh. Probably cousins somehow, they all are those royals.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I had little to do with the display software. Very involved in the data behind it...

ECMWF was giving an unbelievable BOC development earlier. We'll see if it persists and/or gets any support.

The Gulf is well on it's way to not being capable of supporting a TC. Red is rather favorable, blue is less than 26C:

I had a feeling it might be turning that way. Our Gulf temps are around 80-81 now, right on the cusp. I would just like a blob of tropical moisture to slowly move over. That would be ideal right now. Or even a wet cold front!
That cold front coming thru this weekend / early next week isn't going to give us much. Hi 83, Low 65 is the forecast on the "coldest" day. Jeez...
Quoting WaterWitch11:


What?? You were on the Barometer Bob show last night?
Geezz... you could have at least told us! lol


nobody likes a smart aleck witch...
Quoting Grothar:


Saw them, great shots. Can't believe you got that close. The King sort of resembles the Duke of Edinburgh. Probably cousins somehow, they all are those royals.


They walked a block from their car to the building where all the hoopla took place.
As I'm sure you're well aware, royalty married royalty numerous times to forge alliances. I'm surprised they all don't look alike. (can you say Deliverance?) :)
Quoting presslord:


nobody likes a smart aleck witch...


Who is Barometer Bob?
...nor does anyone like a smartaleck junky ; )
Quoting PcolaDan:


They walked a block from their car to the building where all the hoopla took place.
As I'm sure you're well aware, royalty married royalty numerous times to forge alliances. I'm surprised they all don't look alike. (can you say Deliverance?) :)


;-)
WWUS64 KLIX 301728
WCNLIX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 785
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009

MSC005-113-147-310000-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.A.0785.091030T1728Z-091031T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 785 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSISSIPPI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

AMITE PIKE WALTHALL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CROSBY...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
MCCOMB AND TYLERTOWN.
Quoting xcool:


This seems to be a real slow mover.
Quoting presslord:
...nor does anyone like a smartaleck junky ; )


press, just finished listening to your appearance. It is nice to see people get involved in helping others. Never really followed too closely about your work. Nice you mentioned Patrap.
Quoting presslord:
...nor does anyone like a smartaleck junky ; )


LOL! Glad it went well...
Quoting Grothar:


press, just finished listening to your appearance. It is nice to see people get involved in helping others. Never really followed too closely about your work. Nice you mentioned Patrap.


Grothar!!!!
Quoting caneswatch:


Grothar!!!!


Canes!!!!!!!!!
yeah severe threat for today :(
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" is moving closer to Camarines Norte-Quezon Area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
===============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 14.3ºN 123.2ºE or 30 kms north of Daet, Camarines Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Quezon
2.Polillo island
3.Bulacan
4.Bataan
5.Rizal
6.Cavite
7.Laguna
8.Batangas
9.Oriental Mindoro
10.Occidental Mindoro
11.Lubang Island
12.Marinduque
13.Camarines Norte
14.Camarines Sur
15.Catanduanes
16.Metro Manila

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Quirino
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Tarlac
5.Pampanga
6.Zambales
7.Albay
8.Romblon
9.Calamian Group
10.Burias Island

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
.2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union
6.Pangasinan
7.Sorsogon
8.Masbate
9.Ticao Island
10.Northern Palawan

Visayas Region
--------------
1.Northern Samar
2.Northern Panay

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow
Quoting Patrap:


That is a big line Patrap. Are those storms still riding up that dip in the jet stream??
100. xcool


101. xcool
Now, why in the heck can't all this be here on the coast of North Carolina? I'll be so glad when winter comes...BRING ON THE SNOW!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


That is a big line Patrap. Are those storms still riding up that dip in the jet stream??
Hey Grothar! :)
...snow is of the Devil...
106. xcool
Join me on November 1st for the next edition of the weather and the media show. My guest will be Joe Bastardi from accuweather as we discuss the quiet hurricane season and why this is happening. The program will start at 8:00PM ET November 1st right here on hurricane tv


http://hurricanecity.com/
Paul Timmons (AKA) presslord and myself will be attending the US-Cuban Hurricane Conference here on the 23rd of November.

If anyone is interested in attending here with us,contact me via-wu mail as I have secured a few more invites thru our group.



The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 – 5:00 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion



Admission is free, but seating is limited.



The Center for International Policy wishes to express its appreciation to

Atlantic Philanthropies for the support which made this conference possible.
108. xcool


Wouldn't want to be in Canada today, either!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MIRINAE (T0921)
3:00 AM JST October 31 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mirinae (980 hPa) located at 14.2N 121.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-southwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
160 NM from the center in north quadrant
100 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.9N 116.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 12.9N 111.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.2N 106.7E - Tropical Depression
Quoting Grothar:


Canes!!!!!!!!!
Oh, so I don't get a hi?? Isee how you are....lol
Quoting hurricanejunky:

I had a feeling it might be turning that way. Our Gulf temps are around 80-81 now, right on the cusp. I would just like a blob of tropical moisture to slowly move over. That would be ideal right now. Or even a wet cold front!
That cold front coming thru this weekend / early next week isn't going to give us much. Hi 83, Low 65 is the forecast on the "coldest" day. Jeez...


I'd take that (83/65). Now 78/68 that would be perfect.
I listened to Barometer Bob's show, and I want to know if I will get my autographed photo of Presslord in a thong in time for Halloween?

Got to go hide. The blog boogeymen will be out to haunt the WU soon.
Wouldn't want to be in Canada today, either!

...or any day, really...for that matter...
I hope southern NC gets 4 feet of snow...unrelastic, probably.
It's not an autographed picture...it's the actual thong...bidding is up to $1500...Thanks pearland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
Wouldn't want to be in Canada today, either!

...or any day, really...for that matter...
really
...well...I did have a really nice time in Toronto once...
only once
Quoting Grothar:


At least it looks as if the higher top clouds have come down a bit. Hope that means less rainfall.


wow, thats some amazing outflow, especially for over land...
kinda quiet in here today
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
kinda quiet in here today


It was crazy yesterday.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
WALTHALL COUNTY...AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISH...

AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF SALEM...
OR 14 MILES EAST OF MCCOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

Quoting StormChaser81:


It was crazy yesterday.


Thus the lack of those crazies here today.
Folks took things a tad too far ..

This isnt facebook,..its a PHD's entry with pertinent,..well mostly pertinent info to be discussed in a civil manner.

"Snicker,snort..ack"..

Quoting Patrap:


Thus the lack of those crazies here today.
Folks took things a tad too far ..

This isnt facebook,..its a PHD's entry with pertinent,..well mostly pertinent info to be discussed in a civil manner.

"Snicker,snort..ack"..



yuppers
Can't seem to find any live Manila cam working.
so i guess the unleashing begins soon
TVS signature..

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so i guess the unleashing begins soon

Exactly. Popcorn, coke, where DID I put Patrap's list?

Are any of our N.O. folks still around (x-cool, Pat)? Just wanted to know if you're completely in the clear now, weather-wise. Still saw a lot of red and yellow squares a little while ago, think it was MS, TN.

Addendum: oh, look at that, Patrap just posted ahead of me.


Wow this is really nasty, multiple tornadoes. The sh** is hitting the fan...
Just in time... the Southern Hemisphere season begins... or tries to, that land got in the way :) Anyway, something to track. Anyone have good satellite loops, or floaters of the southern hemisphere?



Quoting Patrap:


Thus the lack of those crazies here today.
Folks took things a tad too far ..

This isnt facebook,..its a PHD's entry with pertinent,..well mostly pertinent info to be discussed in a civil manner.

"Snicker,snort..ack"..

LOL...Pat, you are the one here with the most longevity; am I wrong or has it gotten somewhat worse over the last few years?
This is a lot of severe weather, could this be considered a outbreak?

Severe Thunderstorm Monroe MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 CON 0435 MEG
Severe Thunderstorm Itawamba MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 CON 0435 MEG
Tornado Neshoba MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 CON 0109 JAN
Tornado Kemper MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 CON 0109 JAN
Tornado Winston MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0110 JAN
Tornado Noxubee MS 0330 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0110 JAN


Watch County State Expires Action ETN Office ID
Tornado Walthall MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 CON 0785 LIX
Tornado Pontotoc MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Monroe MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Prentiss MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Tippah MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Chickasaw MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Union MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Calhoun MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Itawamba MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Alcorn MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Tishomingo MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Lee MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MEG
Tornado Clarke MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Choctaw MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Lauderdale MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Attala MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Clay MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Copiah MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Lamar MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Jefferson Davis MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Simpson MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Jasper MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Jones MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Forrest MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Kemper MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Covington MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Oktibbeha MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Lincoln MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Leake MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Montgomery MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Newton MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Rankin MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Neshoba MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Noxubee MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Lowndes MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Webster MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Smith MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Lawrence MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Winston MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Marion MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Scott MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 JAN
Tornado Colbert AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 HUN
Tornado Lawrence AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 HUN
Tornado Lauderdale AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 HUN
Tornado Franklin AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 HUN
Tornado Walker AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Pickens AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Tuscaloosa AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Sumter AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Marengo AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Winston AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Marion AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Lamar AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Hale AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Greene AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Fayette AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 BMX
Tornado Greene MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Tornado Washington AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Tornado Wayne MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Tornado Choctaw AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Tornado Perry MS 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Tornado Clarke AL 0700 PM Fri Oct 30 NEW 0785 MOB
Quoting Patrap:


Thus the lack of those crazies here today.
Folks took things a tad too far ..

This isnt facebook,..its a PHD's entry with pertinent,..well mostly pertinent info to be discussed in a civil manner.



Yes it is quiet in here today thankfully.
Quoting Floodman:
LOL...Pat, you are the one here with the most longevity; am I wrong or has it gotten somewhat worse over the last few years?


I believe its due to the nature of the Beast floodman,..many use Facebook,MySpace,Twitter and wu at the same time.

Its a Blog format,not a social networking site as some think it is now.

But when crunch time comes,..like Hurricane Ike showed last year,as well as Gustav,..the site delivers much more than the Daily Show we have seen as of late.
Quoting Patrap:


I believe its due to the nature of the Beast floodman,..many use Facebook,MySpace,Twitter and wu at the same time.

Its a Blog format,not a social networking site as some think it is now.

But when crunch time comes,..like Hurricane Ike showed last year,as well as Gustav,..the site delivers much more than the Daily Show we have seen as of late.


Very well put. How did you fare in the severe weather?
Quoting Patrap:


I believe its due to the nature of the Beast floodman,..many use Facebook,MySpace,Twitter and wu at the same time.

Its a Blog format,not a social networking site as some think it is now.

But when crunch time comes,..like Hurricane Ike showed last year,as well as Gustav,..the site delivers much more than the Daily Show we have seen as of late.


I apparently missed quite a show...
If this does occur, the ridge will block access to the north.

Quoting Patrap:


I believe its due to the nature of the Beast floodman,..many use Facebook,MySpace,Twitter and wu at the same time.

Its a Blog format,not a social networking site as some think it is now.

But when crunch time comes,..like Hurricane Ike showed last year,as well as Gustav,..the site delivers much more than the Daily Show we have seen as of late.

Dead on Pat. That and the slow season has turned this into a social network. One can almost predict who will be on at any given time nowdays as it is always the same people and it isnt about weather. I have been here since 2004 and it has never been worse, this use to be a fun an instructional blog but those days are long gone!
While I agree that the inmates seem to have taken over the asylum lately...this is due mostly to the uneventful tropical season...it is still the most instructional site around...to say otherwise seems petty...
Sorry if I ruined the blogging experience yesterday!
Somedays are worse than others,yesterday was bad.
"Don't sweat the petty things...and don't pet the sweaty things..."

George Carlin
Quoting NEwxguy:
Somedays are worse than others,yesterday was bad.

Agreed. Maybe is a generational thing, I'm 61, and ,as my four daughters ranging from 21 to 29 say, " you just don't get it dad" .LOL!!!


Papua New Guinea satellite

winters Link below, it just does not cover the southwest Indian Ocean.
[http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi]
Quoting presslord:
While I agree that the inmates seem to have taken over the asylum lately...this is due mostly to the uneventful tropical season...it is still the most instructional site around...to say otherwise seems petty...
its those thong wearing guys you got to watch out for
151. DDR
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Papua New Guinea satellite

winters Link below, it just does not cover the southwest Indian Ocean.
[http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi]

Interesting and thanks,it looks like the monsoon is approaching in the southern sea.
Its in its last lap here,i'm expect alot of rain (Trinidad) within the next 2 months
I just have a weird feeling that there's going to be a nasty storm (probably rainfall rather than strength) in the atlantic yet this year. Perhaps that's just based on previous, more active years though. Or last year... paloma
Link

And I don't think any one realizes how bad a year it was for Cuba last year. I don't understand how people survive there. Something like 5 storms hit, all hurricanes, mostly major, and then that threw off the storms enough so they didnt restrengthen like crazy when they hit the US! Just imagine what Paloma would have done if Cuba was not there... The circulation survived, and in fact made landfall on florida!


If Cuba hadn't weakened it so bad we could have been looking at tropical storm, hurricane, major! (though probably weaker because shear was insane)
But you can see on this site that Cuba weakened pretty much every storm last year.
Quote: 104. Patrap 2:51 PM EDT on October 30

That doesn't sound half bad as I sit here eating my homemade jambalaya, with plenty of shrimp that I caught (last year, frozen). They say they are showing up early this year and we are hoping the lack of TC hits here in FL will make for a good catch due to increased salinity (lack of runoff), and growth of grass beds (wind didn't tear up the shallow lagoon). We had a line of showers move slow over us today too - pathetic, weak back door front moving WEST.

Quoting presslord:
"Don't sweat the petty things...and don't pet the sweaty things..."

George Carlin

Press,
I think you got it wrong, "Don't sweat the petty stuff and ALWAYS pet the sweaty stuff."

Quoting tropicofcancer:
Just want to chime in here. When the storms are brewing in the tropics . Guess where I get all my info? Right here! I get up, if there is anything in the tropics , and check out what most of you are dicussing here.I could not possibly name all of you.It would take me a week to type the names! Cause I'm a hunt and peck typer! I trust you folks and your forecasts 1 thousand times more than local weather! And at my middling age of 41 I am learning . Thanks to you guys and gals! Keep up the awesome work! Lastly. I say a prayer for those in LA. hit by the tornadoes! I'm done babbling now! Thanks.
Quoting PcolaDan:


They walked a block from their car to the building where all the hoopla took place.
As I'm sure you're well aware, royalty married royalty numerous times to forge alliances. I'm surprised they all don't look alike. (can you say Deliverance?) :)
Almost every royal family in Europe is related through Queen Victoria. She had a lot of kids and could only mary them off to other royals.
No posts in 1/2 hour, Where is everyone, watching "The Wheel of Fortune"?
Looks like NW Caribbean might be starting moisten up a bit, wonder if something might start to brew next? Even though its dry, wind sheer seems to be marginal conducive in SW & NW Caribbean at this time.
Nice to see someone else on the blog. Hey stormpetrol.
no name storms too talk about so you get a dead blog we will be haveing more dead blogs like this one druning the off season
Quoting Grothar:
Nice to see someone else on the blog. Hey stormpetrol.

Hey, how's things. Any thoughts on the SW caribbean?
Quoting Tazmanian:
no name storms too talk about so you get a dead blog we will be haveing more dead blogs like this one druning the off season


Taz, I was a lurker for years before ever making my first comment this year. You were on here for a long time. What can we talk about without getting banned?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like NW Caribbean might be starting moisten up a bit, wonder if something might start to brew next? Even though its dry, wind sheer seems to be marginal conducive in SW & NW Caribbean at this time.
East End just had a very hard downpour. Hi Grothar.
futuremet posted an interest model in #141. Checking the shear maps, it is not that hostile, but there is supposed to be high ridging across the ATL and US for the next week. There are still about 30 days left.
Quoting Grothar:


Taz, I was a lurker for years before ever making my first comment this year. You were on here for a long time. What can we talk about without getting banned?



i sure you think of some in
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End just had a very hard downpour. Hi Grothar.


Hey CI, thanks for putting in the image for my words to storm. Does look like a little activity down there. I don't expect too much, but it has happened before. What year and month was Paloma?
Quoting Grothar:
futuremet posted an interest model in #141. Checking the shear maps, it is not that hostile, but there is supposed to be high ridging across the ATL and US for the next week. There are still about 30 days left.
I saw that post and he said if it pans out it would not allow any northward movement of a developed or developing system.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey CI, thanks for putting in the image for my words to storm. Does look like a little activity down there. I don't expect too much, but it has happened before. What year and month was Paloma?
Nov 8, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:



i sure you think of some in


Hey, I hope that wasn't a shot!!! LOL You know me Taz, I'm a quiet guy!.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nov 8, 2008


Thanks CI, saved me some research there!!

Forgot it was a CAT 4. Hey, its been a year what do you want.

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks CI, saved me some research there!!

Forgot it was a CAT 4. Hey, its been a year what do you want.

Not another one. Although it missed giving Grand Cayman a direct hit the Eastern District where I live had 90+ mph winds and Cayman Brac which was a direct hit was severely damaged and still trying to recover.
Good evening to all
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not another one. Although it missed giving Grand Cayman a direct hit the Eastern District where I live had 90+ mph winds and Cayman Brac which was a direct hit was severely damaged and still trying to recover.


Which storm really did bad damage to the islands a few years back? I remember it was supposed to hit Jamaica directly but jogged and hit the islands.
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening to all


Hi Weather, quiet night I think there are 4 of us now, and I shall have to go soon.
Quoting Grothar:


Which storm really did bad damage to the islands a few years back? I remember it was supposed to hit Jamaica directly but jogged and hit the islands.
Ivan in 2004. I would never want to go through another one like that again.
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening to all
Good evening. You been hiding or what ?
Quoting Grothar:


Hi Weather, quiet night I think there are 4 of us now, and I shall have to go soon.


yea, I will only be here for a short time tho.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ivan in 2004. I would never want to go through another one like that again.


Should have remembered that. Right after we tried to get Hurricane windows and shutters for our home in Ft. Lauderdale, and couldn't because all the supplies were being sent to the islands. 14 month wait. Luckily a friend was in the business and had everything installed by June of 2005. Need I say more.
Quoting Grothar:


Should have remembered that. Right after we tried to get Hurricane windows and shutters for our home in Ft. Lauderdale, and couldn't because all the supplies were being sent to the islands. 14 month wait. Luckily a friend was in the business and had everything installed by June of 2005. Need I say more.
That was a very rough time for all of us. My district was without power for 2 1/2 months. The post office where I work had about 4 ft of water in it and after they got the water out there were dead fish in there. The road where Stormpetrol and Kmanislander live was virtually gone as was the one that leads to the Eastern districts.
Good evening .
1" of deelishus rain here today. Frogs are loud tonight. It's been a while...
Quoting pottery:
Good evening .
1" of deelishus rain here today. Frogs are loud tonight. It's been a while...


Rain has been falling here all day, minor flooding but small price to pay.
Quoting Weather456:


Rain has been falling here all day, minor flooding but small price to pay.
Getting some in Grand Cayman too. Ain't it great !
Ivan also demolished the island of Grenada. 80% of the buildings there were destroyed or badly damaged. Including a stone fort which was built by the British 150 years ago, and which had survived many bad hurricanes.
Ivan was a true BEAST.
Enjoy the rain, 456. Sorry about the flooding though.
Quoting pottery:
Ivan also demolished the island of Grenada. 80% of the buildings there were destroyed or badly damaged. Including a stone fort which was built by the British 150 years ago, and which had survived many bad hurricanes.
Ivan was a true BEAST.
Worst one I ever experienced and I grew up in S Fla and went through many.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Getting some in Grand Cayman too. Ain't it great !


Yes it is....a needed cool down.
Quoting pottery:
Enjoy the rain, 456. Sorry about the flooding though.


the flooding was minor, and was overshadowed by the fact we needed the rain.
Ivan also killed 4 people on Tobago, with landslides. Blocked roads and did a lot of damage there. Ran from sept 2nd to sept 24th I think.
NOAA: Arctic Report Card -- Update for 2009


Warming of the Arctic continues to be widespread, and in some cases, dramatic.

Linkages between air, land, sea, and biology are evident.

Link to first webpage here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/


Atmosphere
Large scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice

There is evidence that, by creating a new major surface heat source, the recent extreme loss of summer sea ice extent is having a direct feedback effect on the general atmospheric circulation into the winter season (Francis et al., 2009). Fall air temperature anomalies of greater than +1.0 °C were observed well up into the atmosphere (Figure 3A), when averaged over 2003–2008 relative to a 1968–1996 base period. The higher temperatures in the lower troposphere decrease the atmospheric air density and raise the height of upper-air-constant-pressure levels over the Arctic Ocean (Figure 3B). These increased heights north of 75° N weaken the normal north-to-south pressure gradient that drives the normal west-to-east airflow in the upper troposphere. In this sense, the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. For example, Honda et al. (2009) suggest a remote connection between loss of Arctic sea ice and colder temperatures over eastern Asia.

The climate of the Arctic is influenced by repeating patterns of sea level pressure that can either dominate during individual months or represent the overall atmospheric circulation flow for an entire season. The main climate pattern for the Arctic is known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with anomalous winds that blow counter-clockwise around the pole when the pattern is in its positive phase. A second wind pattern has been more prevalent in the 21st century and is known as the Arctic Dipole (AD) pattern (Wu et al., 2006; Overland et al., 2008). The AD pattern has anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic and low SLP on the Eurasian side. This implies winds blowing more from south to north, compared to the AO, and increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The AD pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the major 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Fall 2008 and winter/spring 2009 showed a return of the AO pattern, but also considerable month to month variability in the presence of these various climate patterns.
Quoting pottery:
Ivan also killed 4 people on Tobago, with landslides. Blocked roads and did a lot of damage there. Ran from sept 2nd to sept 24th I think.
Only 2 people died here and both could have been avoided. One man went out to check his boat and another went out to check the building I think and something hit him in his chest and killed him. We don't have any mountains here so we don't get landslides.
Quoting pottery:
Ivan also killed 4 people on Tobago, with landslides. Blocked roads and did a lot of damage there. Ran from sept 2nd to sept 24th I think.


That is what is wrong here sometimes. If a disaster happens to someone else, you forget it quickly; but when it happens to you, the memory stays. Sorry for you guys. I get just slightly upset, when the U.S. doesn't get a strike, they say it was a "bust" year. Even though 14 Islands were devastated.
Quoting Grothar:


That is what is wrong here sometimes. If a disaster happens to someone else, you forget it quickly; but when it happens to you, the memory stays. Sorry for you guys. I get just slightly upset, when the U.S. doesn't get a strike, they say it was a "bust" year. Even though 14 Islands were devastated.
That's why my father got so upset when Ivan was heading to Cayman. He lives in Tampa and he said he couldn't get any information about what was going on.
Hi, Grothar, CI, everybody,

Just popping in for a sec., as we've had a family emergency -- we'll be okay, didn't come on to talk about that.
Watching "Top Gear" on BBC America with my husband. It's a show we both enjoy a lot. Just wanted to catch Grothar esp. before he left, because this is an episode he'd really enjoy.
The main dude is taking a Mercedes McLaren SLR from London to Norway, and the other two younger guys are taking public transpo, including a party boat (don't remember the name) and they're in a little boat now, freezing (weather related :)). It's neck and neck right now!
Have a great night, everyone.
Update: Mercedes won! Top Dude's in Oslo.
Two younger guys broke two little boats and had to take a bus, wet, freezing cold, and no one spoke English. They were neck & neck at 50 miles away.
But after 24 hours, even a glorious Mercedes was rough.
Good post there, Skye.
Thanks.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Update: Mercedes won! Top Dude's in Oslo.
Two younger guys broke two little boats and had to take a bus, wet, freezing cold, and no one spoke English. They were neck & neck at 50 miles away.
But after 24 hours, even a glorious Mercedes was rough.


they all speak English in Norway!!!!!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hi, Grothar, CI, everybody,

Just popping in for a sec., as we've had a family emergency -- we'll be okay, didn't come on to talk about that.
Watching "Top Gear" on BBC America with my husband. It's a show we both enjoy a lot. Just wanted to catch Grothar esp. before he left, because this is an episode he'd really enjoy.
The main dude is taking a Mercedes McLaren SLR from London to Norway, and the other two younger guys are taking public transpo, including a party boat (don't remember the name) and they're in a little boat now, freezing (weather related :)). It's neck and neck right now!
Have a great night, everyone.
Hi. Glad you enjoyed the show.
Quoting Grothar:


they all speak English in Norway!!!!!

The guys looked so ragged prob. no one wanted to talk to them!
G'night! Hubby says I have call to make!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The guys looked so ragged prob. no one wanted to talk to them!
G'night! Hubby says I have call to make!
Hope everything works out okay with you. Good night.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The guys looked so ragged prob. no one wanted to talk to them!
G'night! Hubby says I have call to make!


No, we just like to drive the British and Americans crazy like we pretend we don't understand them. Get more money in the markets that way. After they leave, we make fun of their poor English grammar. (Joking) Have a good one Awake. I am off to sleep. Nite everyone stay safe. Good post Skypony!
Decent analysis.

Skye, with all of the Arctic heat being the harbinger of things to come for the planet, to what would you attribute the lack of a warming at surface stations on Baffin Island?

For example:


Granted there are large issues with surface stations, but they are usually to the positive rather than negative (unless, I suppose they mount it on a 2000 foot pole...)
;-)

Oh, and for those of you following along at home, Baffin Island is here, in red.

Quoting Skyepony:
NOAA: Arctic Report Card -- Update for 2009


Warming of the Arctic continues to be widespread, and in some cases, dramatic.

Linkages between air, land, sea, and biology are evident.

Link to first webpage here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/


Atmosphere
Large scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice

There is evidence that, by creating a new major surface heat source, the recent extreme loss of summer sea ice extent is having a direct feedback effect on the general atmospheric circulation into the winter season (Francis et al., 2009). Fall air temperature anomalies of greater than +1.0 °C were observed well up into the atmosphere (Figure 3A), when averaged over 2003–2008 relative to a 1968–1996 base period. The higher temperatures in the lower troposphere decrease the atmospheric air density and raise the height of upper-air-constant-pressure levels over the Arctic Ocean (Figure 3B). These increased heights north of 75° N weaken the normal north-to-south pressure gradient that drives the normal west-to-east airflow in the upper troposphere. In this sense, the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. For example, Honda et al. (2009) suggest a remote connection between loss of Arctic sea ice and colder temperatures over eastern Asia.

The climate of the Arctic is influenced by repeating patterns of sea level pressure that can either dominate during individual months or represent the overall atmospheric circulation flow for an entire season. The main climate pattern for the Arctic is known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) with anomalous winds that blow counter-clockwise around the pole when the pattern is in its positive phase. A second wind pattern has been more prevalent in the 21st century and is known as the Arctic Dipole (AD) pattern (Wu et al., 2006; Overland et al., 2008). The AD pattern has anomalous high pressure on the North American side of the Arctic and low SLP on the Eurasian side. This implies winds blowing more from south to north, compared to the AO, and increasing transport of heat into the central Arctic Ocean. The AD pattern occurred in all summer months of 2007 and helped support the major 2007 summer reduction in sea ice extent (Overland et al., 2008). Fall 2008 and winter/spring 2009 showed a return of the AO pattern, but also considerable month to month variability in the presence of these various climate patterns.
Quoting Grothar:


No, we just like to drive the British and Americans crazy like we pretend we don't understand them. Get more money in the markets that way. After they leave, we make fun of their poor English grammar. (Joking) Have a good one Awake. I am off to sleep. Nite everyone stay safe. Good post Skypony!
Good night to you.
A new University of Colorado at Boulder study has shown that ice caps on the northern plateau of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic have shrunk by more than 50 percent in the last half century as a result of warming, and are expected to disappear by the middle of the century.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See also:
Earth & Climate
•Global Warming
•Climate
•Ice Ages
•Oceanography
•Snow and Avalanches
•Earth Science
Reference
•Greenland ice sheet
•Larsen Ice Shelf
•Ice sheet
•Ice shelf
Radiocarbon dating of dead plant material emerging from beneath the receding ice margins show the Baffin Island ice caps are now smaller in area than at any time in at least the last 1,600 years, said geological sciences Professor Gifford Miller of CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. "Even with no additional warming, our study indicates these ice caps will be gone in 50 years or less," he said.

The study also showed two distinct bursts of Baffin Island ice-cap growth commencing about 1280 A.D. and 1450 A.D., each coinciding with ice-core records of increases in stratospheric aerosols tied to major tropical volcanic eruptions, Miller said. The unexpected findings "provide tantalizing evidence that the eruptions were the trigger for the Little Ice Age," a period of Northern Hemisphere cooling that lasted from roughly 1250 to 1850, he said.


Baffin ice cap.
Looks like a lot of moisture piling up off Panama and Nicaragua as the doc predicted.This maybe last chance for blog excitement. Oh well of to a haunted what ever excursion.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like a lot of moisture piling up off Panama and Nicaragua as the doc predicted.This maybe last chance for blog excitement. Oh well of to a haunted what ever excursion.
I can do without the excitement. Enjoy the haunting.
211. xcool



Good Afternoon all. Just sending text messages to family in the Philippines atm, hope we get a reply. Will keep everyone updated.


‘Worst is over’ as Santi crosses over S. Luzon—Pagasa
Link


‘Santi’ quick but intense
Link
So up until 1850 it was anomalously cool and records showing warming since then are showing the signal of a recovery to more 'normal' temps?
And could those ice caps simply have been on the wane since then, too? And mean nothing at all in the realm of CO2-AGW?
Ice cap melting poses new security threat



Jerry Frank - Thursday 1 October 2009

THE melting of the Polar ice cap has opened the way for new commercial sea lanes and poses new security challenges for the international community, according to Nato's secretary-general.
Speaking on the sideline on a conference on 21st century risks organized by Lloyd's of London, Nato head Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that climate change...



If it quacks like a duck melting..it just may be a Duck Melting.

But hey,..Im just a Zookeeper
Yeah, Pat may be right. All that ice might just have melted again.

Isn't the first time ski season ended.
WOW! Quiet in here!
The wild claims are finally being recognized as ultimately beneficial to...
...no one.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/earth-environment/article6896152.ece

Of course I don't agree with everything there, but there are a few vary accurate snippets:

Excessive statements about the decline of Arctic sea ice, severe weather events and the probability of extreme warming in the next century detract from the credibility of robust findings about climate change, they said.

They fear, however, that the contribution of natural climate variations towards events such as storms, melting ice and heatwaves is too often overlooked, and that possible scenarios about future warming are misleadingly presented as fact.

"When people overstate happenings that aren%u2019t necessarily climate change-related, or set up as almost certainties things that are difficult to establish scientifically, it distracts from the science we do understand. The danger is they can be accused of scaremongering. Also, we can all become described as kind of left-wing greens."

"I think we need to be very careful about purporting to be able to supply very detailed and apparently accurate information about how the climate will be in 50 or 100 years' time, when what we%u2019re really giving is a possible future climate," he added.

She was particularly critical of claims made by scientists and environmental groups two years ago, when observations showed that Arctic sea ice had declined to the lowest extent on record, 39 per cent below the average between 1979 and 2001. This led Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre, to say that Arctic ice was "in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return".

Temperature trends of the past two decades have also been widely mis-interpreted to support particular points of view, the scientists said. Rapid warming in the 1990s, culminating in the hottest year on record in 1998, was erroneously used to suggest that climate change was accelerating.


A lot of absurd statements out there that get big headlines, but not challenged later (in the mainstream, anyway).

Tough to deny the veracity of any of those statements...
hi guys what did I miss for the last couple of days my computer was having problems (must of came down with swine flu):)
221. 789
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys what did I miss for the last couple of days my computer was having problems (must of came down with swine flu):)
foot ball night or hide in closet in n.o.



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ivan in 2004. I would never want to go through another one like that again.
hehe...my handle is HurricaneIvan04
North Atlantic Hurricane Season slowest since 1997
Global and Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Activity remains near 30-year historical lows -- three years in a row now of considerably below-average activity globally.

Consequence of the transition from La Nina to El Nino during the past year
guys talk to me about this



Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys talk to me about this



Link


That might be related to the energy forecast to lie offshore the Pacific coast of Guatemala in about a week; the one Jeff alluded to in his blog today.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That might be related to the energy forecast to lie offshore the Pacific coast of Guatemala in about a week; the one Jeff alluded to in his blog today.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

thanks
also check this out the 00z 31/10/09 nam model

Link


Glad to entertain a litte..

Atmoaggie~ Tough to deny the veracity of any of those statements...

Not really. I don't see any truths, as in information there. It's nothing more than the insertion of doubt where ever possible. None of those are a published scientific reason that it hasn't gotten hotter or people don't have a hand.. Even your station. It's one station, not a satellite or ships sailing through what has been ice for written history & then some. Warmth melts ice.

I dug the article since the summers overall have really been dragging on, overall for the Northern Hemisphere. It's been noted with the dragging on of storm season, longer harvest, later migrations, the records & about every long coated horse around me needs body clipped to make it through fall here in central FL the last decade. At one point I expressed my thoughts that with less ice at the end of summer, fall has been warmer. Interesting too was the shift from the counterclockwise polar vortex to winds from the south. It happened briefly last winter too when the earth burped that warm air from the Atlantic that split the polar vortex.

Where that was total climate change without the how it happened drama..this is not but was too good not to share. I ran across this that Jim Hansen wrote. He had some words. Layed it out, about how the coal & oil companies control more than the governments. The Waxman-Markey cap & trade plan is all contrived to benefit the coal & current energy giants. Went off on a civil disobedience tangent & I mean encouraging. Looks like he may be headed to trial for a protest.
Wunderkid~ Looks like the gfs wants to form it in the EPac. Kinda early yet other than to say Central America may have something to worry about next week.
232. xcool


AOI
land interaction limits dev.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI
land interaction limits dev.

lat and long to the AOI please
235. xcool





hmmm appears to be growing GW enthusiasts
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" is now in the vicinity of Lubang Island and moving towards the South China Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 13.8ºN 119.9ºE or 120 kms west southwest of Metro Manila has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 kts) with gustiness up to 150 km/h (80 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Lubang Island
2.Northern Section of Mindoro

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Bataan
2.Cavite
3.Batangas
4.Rest of Mindoro
5.Calamian Group
6.Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Zambales
2.Tarlac
3.Pampanga
4.Bulacan
5.Rizal
6.Laguna
7.Quezon
8.Marinduque
9.Northern Palawan

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting Patrap:
.."If you win me,..I'm forever"..

I agree with the last comment there .. MORE COWBELL
Mirinae from some guy's roof deck.

Vabeach~ Did the words sea ice make your eyes glaze over? Article was about the North pole, not south. & the real measured & observed effects it's having on some ocean circulation patterns.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



hmmm appears to be growing GW enthusiasts


See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_see-saw

You conveniently picked the one that's growing (a little bit). You have to use the sum of Arctic and Antarctic.

And you have to use mass, not area.
Quoting Skyepony:
Mirinae from some guy's roof deck.

Vabeach~ Did the words sea ice make your eyes glaze over? Article was about the North pole, not south. & the real measured & observed effects it's having on some ocean circulation patterns.


yeah i get it... but the artic isnt the only iceshelf in the world is it? cool the north is shrinking, but the south is growing. Meaning what? no one knows, but i realize that people who try and convince people global warming is occuring only push the side tha supports them.
Quoting Manhattancane:


See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_seesaw

You conveniently picked the one that's growing (a little bit). You have to use the sum of Arctic and Antarctic.

And you have to use mass, not area.


yeah i picked the graph from NASA... real subjective of me... way to disprove me using a site anyone can edit
Thanks xcool, Hades, for the posts. Just wanted you to know I'm looking and the info's appreciated.
Patrap you are so crushed out on the Cardigans, lol.

So you know, I actually understand more about what's going on in this movie The Perfect Storm, thanks to what I've learned here, and it's a lot scarier now. Uh, Thanks, I think(?)
245. xcool
AwakeInMaryland ;lol
The warming is not conjecture its a proven fact.What all the fuss about is the causation of the warming.
But those who deny already know that the Co2,Methane and Co3 Fairies come out every night and wave their wands and "Poof", all that Nasty Stuff goes away.

LOL

Ever been to Hong Kong on a clear day?
Ever seen the Pollutants in Beijing?

Were doing a Global experiment with fossil fuel Burning and guess who the Guinea Pigs are?

The warming will continue as the Atmosphere becomes more Polluted thru time.

China isnt going to cease its Growth,India neither.
They will have their run with Fossil Fuels on a scale that will/has dwarfed the west.

Changes already occurring will only increase as the Levels rise.

Quoting Patrap:
The warming is not conjecture its a proven fact.What all the fuss about is the causation of the warming.
But those who deny already know that the Co2,Methane and Co3 Fairies come out every night and wave their wands and "Poof", all that Nasty Stuff goes away.

LOL

Ever been to Hong Kong on a clear day?
Ever seen the Pollutants in Beijing?

Were doing a Global experiment with fossil fuel Burning and guess who the Guinea Pigs are?

The warming will continue as the Atmosphere becomes more Polluted thru time.

China isnt going to cease its Growth,India neither.
They will have their run with Fossil Fuels on a scale that will/has dwarfed the west.

Changes already occurring will only increase as the Levels rise.




what changes? i have witnessed 0! changes since global warming supposedly "started" and whats your explanation of the antartic ice shelf growing?
Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park



Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.

In the past decade, Glacier NP has experienced dramatic climate variability that includes record winter and summer droughts, near record summertime temperatures, as well as near-record winter snowfall. While the park’s glaciers continue to shrink, it is not clear whether these dramatic fluctuations have accelerated or slowed glacier recession and downwasting. In part this is because studies of glaciers in Glacier NP to date have focused on changes in the area of individual glaciers and the extent of glaciers in the park. Few measurements of glacier volume or mass have been made. Measurements of area alone can be misleading; changes in mass and/or ice flux can result in significant changes to the glacier and to streamflow below the glacier even when glacier area remains stable. Though hydrologic changes such as these can have important ecologic effects downstream of the glaciers, the nature and extent of changes in runoff volume, and stream temperature have not been measured or analyzed.
Climate Change Meets American Agriculture
Scientists say in a new government report that global warming is already affecting U.S. water and land resources. Transcript of radio broadcast:
16 June 2008




This is the VOA Special English Agriculture Report.

A government report says climate change is already affecting American agriculture.

The new report is from the Climate Change Science Program, which brings together the research efforts of thirteen federal agencies. President George Bush launched the program six years ago.

Here are some of the findings by scientists:

The growing season has increased by ten to fourteen days in northern parts of the United States over the last nineteen years.

Much of the East and South now get more rain than a century ago. But the report says there is some evidence of increased drought conditions in the West and Southwest. Western states have less snow and ice on the mountains and earlier melting in the spring.

Scientists say crops including tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops
Scientists say crops including tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops
Grain and oilseed crops are likely to develop faster with increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But higher temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures.

Also, horticultural crops such as tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops.

Fewer animals will die during warmer winters, but greater numbers will die during hotter summers. And temperature extremes reduce animal production of meat or milk products.

Forests in the West, the Southwest and Alaska already have increases in fires, insect outbreaks and dead trees. But young forests on good soil will be more productive because of increased carbon dioxide levels.

At the same time, invasive plants will also grow faster and are likely to move northward. Recent research also suggests that weeds might get harder to kill with glyphosate, the most widely used plant killer in the United States.

The Department of Agriculture was the lead agency for the new report. Thirty-eight scientists from universities, national laboratories, nongovernmental organizations and federal service wrote it. They considered more than one thousand scientific publications.

The report was the strongest statement yet by the Bush administration that human activity is the main cause of climate change in the last fifty years. Carbon dioxide from the burning of oil, natural gas and coal is the main gas blamed for trapping heat in the atmosphere.

The report says warming is very likely to continue in the United States during the next twenty-five to fifty years. And it says this is so even if future greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced.

And that's the VOA Special English Agriculture Report, written by Jerilyn Watson. I'm Bob Doughty.
"Scientists say crops including tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops

Scientists say crops including tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops

Grain and oilseed crops are likely to develop faster with increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. But higher temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures.

Also, horticultural crops such as tomatoes, onions and fruit are more easily affected by climate change than grains and oilseed crops."

Sounds like a gov't report.

What exactly are they trying to say here?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah i picked the graph from NASA... real subjective of me... way to disprove me using a site anyone can edit


No, what I meant is you picked the pole that wasn't melting. (And what, do you denier types spend your free time trolling sci-data sites for graphs to use or something? just wondering)



I know that you didn't even look at the link because you quoted it and didn't complain the article doesn't exist. You have to put a hyphen in it!
Maybe someone will make a redirect.


Fine. Google polar seesaw, then. Grief.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also check this out the 00z 31/10/09 nam model

Link


No ****ing way in **** the way this year has been. Plus the EPAC is really unfavorable in November, or so I've read. But I'm kinda drunk. Anyone on here??? Happy halloween! lol **** this holiday.
models trending south... i feel what i've felt since initial formation, This could survive or reform in the indian ocean.


Survived the phillipenes, why can't it survive another land mass.


another storm may be forming behind miranae, will probably hit phillipenes.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" weakens to a tropical storm and continues to move away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Santi (Mirinae) located at 13.8ºN 118.8ºE or 230 kms west southwest of Metro Manila has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) with gustiness up to 130 km/h (70 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Lubang Island

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

---
almost out of the PAGASA area of responsibility
don't think it will survive Vietnam/Cambodia
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
don't think it will survive Vietnam/Cambodia


it wont survive Vietnam
Power outages, floods as ‘Santi’ moves away from RP

MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE 6) Tropical cyclone “Santi” (international codename: Mirinae) has left the Philippines after stranding thousands of commuters, causing power outages and worsening floods in areas still struggling to recover from recent deadly storms.

Santi, which weakened into a storm as it heads toward the South China Sea, caused “minimal casualties,” the National Disaster Coordinating Council said Saturday afternoon, killing at least one person.

At 2 p.m., the storm was seen 170 kilometers southwest of Manila, packing maximum sustained winds of 105 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 135 kph, the state weather bureau Pagasa said.

More than 115,000 people had been evacuated from vulnerable areas before the typhoon hit, which likely prevented more deaths, NDCC spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ernesto Torres said.

One man was found dead and his one-year-old baby was missing after they were washed away while trying to cross an overflowing creek in a rural area on the outskirts of Manila, the military said.

Another man was missing from a Manila slum district after his hut was washed away, said Torres.

Torres said the minimal casualties “may be attributed to the preparedness of local disaster coordinating councils with the support of individual residents.”

“The war is over. The part of Santi in our lives is finished,” Pagasa Deputy Director Nathaniel Cruz said at a press briefing Saturday morning.

Cruz said the weather bureau was expecting improved weather conditions for Saturday and Sunday in areas passed by the typhoon, including the Bicol region, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Metro Manila.

“People who still want to go to cemeteries can still do so on Sunday,” he said, adding any rainshowers in Luzon will not be due to the typhoon.

But Cruz warned of possible big waves churned up by Santi in the western seaboard of southern Luzon particularly in the waters of Palawan, Mindoro and Batangas.

Gale-force winds of at least 65 kilometers per hour would still affect Northern and Central Luzon as a result of the surge of the northeast monsoon, the cold air from the northern hemisphere that blows into the country from the end of October to January

Santi was forecast to move westward at 20 kph and would be about 650 kilometers west southwest of Manila or over the South China Sea by Sunday afternoon, Pagasa said.

Storm signal over Lubang island was lowered to signal number 2 while Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro and the Calamian group of Islands remained under signal number 1.

Storm signals elsewhere have been lowered, Cruz said.

Santi was the third major storm to hit the Philippines main island of Luzon in just five weeks, with the previous two claiming more than 1,100 lives.

Tropical Storm Ondoy (international codename: Ketsana), which struck on September 26, caused massive flooding in Manila and outlying districts populated by more than a million people were expected to be remain flooded into the New Year even before Mirinae hit.

One person was rescued after a bridge in Batangas City just south of Manila was destroyed by a swollen river, taking at least one car with it, local officials said. Two of the vehicle’s three passengers—father and son—were reported missing by radio dzMM.

Electricity supplies were also interrupted in parts of Manila and in surrounding areas as the storm toppled power lines and trees, rendering some roads impassable, Torres said.

All international and local flights to and from Manila were cancelled, said airport general manager Alfonso Cusi. He said he hoped flights would resume once the storm had passed.

Ferries, a popular form of transport in the Southeast Asian archipelago, were also cancelled, ruining travel plans for many who were hoping to head to their hometowns for the All Saints' Day long-weekend public holiday.

Cruz said the weather bureau received reports of power failure, floods and landslides in some parts of Southern Luzon and the Bicol Region.

Pagasa also recorded 350 millimeters of rainfall on Alabat Island in Quezon from 8:00 a.m. Friday to 8:00 a.m. Saturday. In Tanay, the agency recorded 157 millimeters for the same period.

Winds of up to 105 kilometers per hour were also recorded in the vicinity of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport while winds of 125 kilometers per hour were recorded in Sangley Point in Cavite.

The floodgates of the Ipo Dam in Bulacan and the Pantabangan Dam in Nueva Ecija were shut early Saturday morning. The Ambuklao Dam in Benguet had four gates open but was letting out only 22 cubic meters of water per second.

In Laguna province to the south of Manila that was one of the worst affected by Ondoy, people were again forced onto their rooftops on Saturday to escape floodwaters.

"We need help because the waters have risen. We need rubber boats and choppers," the mayor of Santa Cruz town, Ariel Magcalas, said in a radio interview. "Some people are on the roofs of their houses."

Navy and coast guard boats had been sent to the town to rescue people, according to Torres, who said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro was heading to the area to check on the extent of flooding and damage.

The highway to the town was covered by knee-high waters, preventing smaller vehicles from reaching it, according to an Agence France-Presse photographer.

Hundreds of residents in these areas were seen continuing to go about their daily chores, wading through the stagnant waters.

Other towns in Laguna reported flooding along with areas in the Bicol region further to the south, Torres said.

“Now that Typhoon Santi is gone, we can now focus on the more daunting task of rehabilitation," he said.
Alcuin Papa, Erika Sauler, Inquirer; AFP
259. IKE
From Accuweather....Link



Since mid-September the tropics have been sheared to smithereens (a lot of westerly winds). Two tropical storms (Grace and Henri) formed since then, but neither turned into a hurricane. For that matter, there were only two hurricanes the entire season: Fred (Sept. 7-12) and Bill (Aug. 15-24).

There were a total of eight named storms during the season, most of which were pretty weak.


Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet
260. IKE
Cold frontal passage just happened at my house as multiple acorns are hitting my roof.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
cooler here finally in central fla with front that just came through. happy halloween!

Loop
tail end of front ~ boc showing a little spin
Good Morning everyone! In Arlington, TX visiting family for a week or so. Love "Wi-Fi", from our local park, not as fast as my home service, but hey, it's 100% free. Drove through TN during the rain event. Strong winds, plenty of moderate to heavy rain, thankfully no severe weather along the way.

Wow, the Philippines got "socked again". Thankfully it came and left quickly. That Lil' area in the SW Caribbean looks interesting. And the good ol' USA gets a well deserved break from severe weather, for the most part.

To all my fellow bloggers and my friends, be blessed, "Trick or Treat"...and peace :0)!
shear, shear everywhere



Link BOO!
264. IKE
My temp dropped from 76.5 to it's current reading of 63.3 in about 15 minutes.

Don't forget, daylight savings time ends Sunday morning at 2 am.


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
I think this vorticity is the one 456 warned about.

Quoting IKE:
My temp dropped from 76.5 to it's current reading of 63.3 in about 15 minutes.

Don't forget, daylight savings time ends Sunday morning at 2 am.

so u get an hour extra, damn, now the Barometer bob show will start at 12pm
268. P451
WASHINGTON — Two years ago, a United Nations scientific panel won the Nobel Peace Prize after concluding that global warming is "unequivocal" and is "very likely" caused by man.

Then came a development unforeseen by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC: Data suggested that Earth's temperature was beginning to drop.

That has reignited debate over what has become scientific consensus: that climate change is due not to nature, but to humans burning fossil fuels. Scientists who don't believe in man-made global warming cite the cooling as evidence for their case. Those who do believe in man-made warming dismiss the cooling as a blip triggered by fleeting changes in ocean currents; they predict greenhouse gases will produce rising temperatures again soon.

The reality is more complex. A few years of cooling doesn't mean that people aren't heating up the planet over the long term. But the cooling wasn't predicted by all the computer models that underlie climate science. That has led to one point of agreement: The models are imperfect.

"There is a lot of room for improvement" in the models, says Mojib Latif, a climate scientist in Germany and co-author of a paper predicting the planet will cool for perhaps a decade before starting to warm again — a long-term trend he attributes to greenhouse-gas emissions. "You need to know what you can believe and can't believe from the models."

The renewed discussion of inherent shortcomings in climate models comes on the cusp of potentially big financial commitments. In five weeks, diplomats from around the world will meet in Copenhagen to try to hash out a new agreement to curb global greenhouse-gas emissions. The science continues to evolve.
269. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:
I think this vorticity is the one 456 warned about.



Potentially STS Ida in the works?

parrotts love those acorns
if the storm gets south enough it might make it through the delta and into the siam sea
Morning all. We had overnight lows in the mid-70s last night, which was really great after the last months constant low 80s at night. Sure hope this trend continues.

In the tropical ATL, I'd be pretty surprised at this point to see anything else form this season. IMO this last week was the last chance for conditions to be sufficiently favorable for tropical formation. I wouldn't rule out something subtropical, but with the SSTs dropping and shear on the increase, along with the normal frontal passages, it doesn't seem highly likely even that will happen.
Quoting Skyepony:


Glad to entertain a litte..

Atmoaggie~ Tough to deny the veracity of any of those statements...

Not really. I don't see any truths, as in information there. It's nothing more than the insertion of doubt where ever possible. None of those are a published scientific reason that it hasn't gotten hotter or people don't have a hand.


Did you look at the link, Skye? Those are from the European climate scientists that are staunch proponents of AGW and proponents of doing something...they also know that some of the absurd statements ruin the credibility of everyone when some of the general public starts paying attention.

Professor Sir David King, director of the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford
Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office
Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics Group at the University of Oxford
Chris Huntingford, of the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Statements like this aren't true?
They fear, however, that the contribution of natural climate variations towards events such as storms, melting ice and heatwaves is too often overlooked, and that possible scenarios about future warming are misleadingly presented as fact.

You think the sky-is-falling, midwest-will-be-a-desert, it-will never-snow-again, the Arctic-will-be-completely-ice-free stuff is real? I know you well enough to know that you know those are just the fear-colored glasses talking.

Quoting Skyepony:
Even your station. It's one station, not a satellite or ships sailing through what has been ice for written history & then some. Warmth melts ice.

It happened briefly last winter too when the earth burped that warm air from the Atlantic that split the polar vortex.

But if the ice is melting earlier, the waters are warming to "unprecedented levels" it is impossible that a surface station recording temps in the midst of that for the last 60 years would show no warming at all (maybe why you didn't want to talk about how that could be).

And the N. Hemisphere polar vortex splits every year at some point...at odd times in the middle of winter.
275. IKE
Atlantic hurricane season had 8 named storms(excluding the 2 TD's), in 2009, that added up to a total of 28 days they existed.

Of the 6 tropical storms, 2 lasted 3 days, 2 lasted 2 days and 2 lasted 1 day.

Of the 2 hurricanes, one lasted 9 days and the other lasted 5 days.

Entire season of named systems took place between August 15th and October 8th or a total of 55 days or just less than 8 weeks.
276. MayFL
Quoting IKE:
Atlantic hurricane season had 8 named storms(excluding the 2 TD's), in 2009, that added up to a total of 28 days they existed.

Of the 6 tropical storms, 2 lasted 3 days, 2 lasted 2 days and 2 lasted 1 day.

Of the 2 hurricanes, one lasted 9 days and the other lasted 5 days.

Entire season of named systems took place between August 15th and October 8th or a total of 55 days or just less than 8 weeks.


Would you like some cheese with your wine?
With all of the Arctic heat being the harbinger of things to come for the planet, to what would you attribute the lack of a warming at surface stations on Baffin Island? (Really looking to discuss how that could be.)

For example (from NASA GISS/Jim Hansen):


Granted there are large issues with surface stations, but they are usually to the positive rather than negative (unless, I suppose they mount it on a 2000 foot pole...)
;-)

And this data source includes some "adjustments", but not sure about those for this particular station. They do not adjust all stations.

Oh, and for those of you following along at home, Baffin Island is here, in red.
278. IKE
Quoting MayFL:


Would you like some cheese with your wine?


How did 94L work out for you MayFL? You know, the invest you sent me a PM over saying I didn't provide reasons as to why it wouldn't develop?

Boy, it sure spun up into a significant system didn't it? LMAO.
Quoting IKE:


How did 94L work out for you MayFL? You know, the invest you sent me a PM over saying I didn't provide reasons as to why it wouldn't develop?

Boy, it sure spun up into a significant system didn't it? LMAO.


I also thought 94L would develop, along with many others like Dr. Masters and we did provide our arguments (which were alot more sensible, reasonable and factual than the opposing side) but we all are wrong sometimes on some systems but laughing after people after they are wrong is not right since people could of laugh after the times you have been wrong this year - and thats alot of laughter.
Quoting P451:


Potentially STS Ida in the works?


Isn't that the non-tropical low that the models are developing into a STS?
281. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


I also thought 94L would develop, along with many others like Dr. Masters and we did provide our arguments but we all wrong sometimes on some systems but laughing after people after they are wrong is not right since people could of laugh after the times you have been wrong this year - and thats alot of laughter.


Yes, I'm wrong quite a bit 456. But I don't send personal messages to others telling them their not providing evidence as to why a system would or wouldn't develop like it's the most important thing in someone's life.

I have more important things to worry about like 20% kidney function and a 3.45 creatinine level.
282. MayFL
Quoting IKE:


How did 94L work out for you MayFL? You know, the invest you sent me a PM over saying I didn't provide reasons as to why it wouldn't develop?

Boy, it sure spun up into a significant system didn't it? LMAO.


I did not do anything wrong. I simply asked you if were not handling the situation down in the Caribbean wrong. I respected your oponion and never said anything out of the way. I also chose to sent you a PM instead of making a comment on the blog since it is more private but yet you bring it here.

The comment I made also is because you seem a little "whinish". We are quite aware of the season inactivity but as Weather456 has been saying, is how much you learn that counts not the 8.
Quoting Ameister12:

Isn't that the non-tropical low that the models are developing into a STS?


Yea, read my blog.
As a geologist I find the whole debate and this so called "consensus" a little puzzling. The entirety of recorded history is a mere sliver of this earth's history. We have such an investment of emotion in our tiny blip on this earth and we sure want to feel like we are having a huge impact. The earth has spent lots of time glaciated and lots of time ice free. The Co2 levels have varied greatly too with volcanism and plant growth. While we MAY be speeding up the arrival of an ice free interglacial period, we should not be fooled into thinking that it wouldn't have arrived anyway and we shouldn't be so vain as to think that we will cause an end to glaciation totally by burning fossil fuels, the next ice age will arrive with or without us, and yes we will all be dust by then. My problem with global warming is it is being billed as fact and is sucking attention and dollars away from environmental issues we have far more control over. If we rush through setting up legislation to control CO2 the politicians will defiantly get it wrong. I am all for cleaner air and feel like progress is being made on this issue. I just feel like our passion could be better used controlling deforestation, managing our fisheries and water resources, planting more trees, and creating more wilderness. We have to help the third world to not deforest the jungles and we should plant trees everywhere we can fit them in our country (we have a very unhealthy obsession with lawns and manicured gardens). Remember what C02 is... plant food.

look at W. carib.and near the possible pre-sub-tropical storm
Just started reading the blog to get caught up. Here is a link to the phiilippines news article.

Link
287. IKE
Quoting MayFL:


I did not do anything wrong. I simply asked you if were not handling the situation down in the Caribbean wrong. I respected your oponion and never said anything out of the way. I also chose to sent you a PM instead of making a comment on the blog since it is more private but yet you bring it here.

The comment I made also is because you seem a little "whinish". We are quite aware of the season inactivity but as Weather456 has been saying, is how much you learn that counts not the 8.


The situation wrong? It was an invest. You send someone a PM over an invest stating that I didn't provide facts.

How many systems had developed or gone through the western Caribbean all season? Zero in 5 months....plus dry-air to it's north, plus shear, plus no model support, plus El Nino.

Quoting IKE:


Yes, I'm wrong quite a bit 456. But I don't send personal messages to others telling them their not providing evidence as to why a system would or wouldn't develop like it's the most important thing in someone's life.

I have more important things to worry about like 20% kidney function and a 3.45 creatinine level.


I have been noticing something all season long, that you keep saying "its just weather" and "personal problems are more important" and "more important things in life than weather".

While I do understand what you are saying, For me, weather is life and I live for it. For many on here, they make a living off of forecasting so while you may not be a met or weather enthusiast you have to understanding that this important to people like me and people will question or debate on such topic.

Also I do not know if you actually have kidney problems but if you do, sorry to hear that but stop using these personal problems on the blog, we are not here for that, we are here to debate about climate, weather and any other related topics so if you think this is "less important than life" then you can always spend less time here.
289. MayFL
Quoting IKE:


Yes, I'm wrong quite a bit 456. But I don't send personal messages to others telling them their not providing evidence as to why a system would or wouldn't develop like it's the most important thing in someone's life.

I have more important things to worry about like 20% kidney function and a 3.45 creatinine level.em>


This is a weather blog, if you have personal problems more important than weather then transfer it to Weatherunderground mail.
290. IKE
Quoting MayFL:


This is a weather blog, if you have personal problems more important than weather then leave.


Just remember....you started it. I'll post on here whenever I please.

You are one cruel person.

Fire away....cuz you've been added.

*POOF*
291. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:


I have been noticing something all season long, that you keep saying "its just weather" and "personal problems are more important" and "more important things in life than weather".

While I do understand what you are saying, For me, weather is life and I live for it. For many on here, they make a living off of forecasting so while you may not be a met or weather enthusiast you have to understanding that this important to people like me and people will question or debate on such topic.

Also I do not know if you actually have kidney problems but if you do, sorry to hear that but stop using these personal problems on the blog, we are not here for that, we are here to debate about climate, weather and any other related topics so if you think this is "less important than life" then you can always spend less time here.


plus 1,

He does not care so he says anything and no other person with more knowledge or passion for weather must question his opinions.
Quoting IKE:


Just remember....you started it. I'll post on here whenever I please.

You are one cruel person.

Fire away....cuz you've been added.

*POOF*


You place him ignore for stating the facts. This is a weather blog.
293. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


I have been noticing something all season long, that you keep saying "its just weather" and "personal problems are more important" and "more important things in life than weather".

While I do understand what you are saying, For me, weather is life and I live for it. For many on here, they make a living off of forecasting so while you may not be a met or weather enthusiast you have to understanding that this important to people like me and people will question or debate on such topic.

Also I do not know if you actually have kidney problems but if you do, sorry to hear that but stop using these personal problems on the blog, we are not here for that, we are here to debate about climate, weather and any other related topics so if you think this is "less important than life" then you can always spend less time here.


I'll post on here when I want to.

You need to grow up some. You're immature.
Quoting IKE:


I'll post on here when I want to.

You need to grow up some. You're immature.


Notice I said that I understand where you were coming from but you choose to go personal with me.

That's fine.
295. MayFL
Quoting IKE:


I'll post on here when I want to.

You need to grow up some. You're immature.


Weather456 did not say anything wrong to you all morning. He simply was stating from his point of view.
Good Morning! And this is just wrong!!!

Beaumont, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 52 min 13 sec ago
Clear
47 °F
Clear
Windchill: 46 °F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 47 °F

Lol. "Windchill" is not a part of our local vocabulary.
289. Respectfully, might I ask you to modify your statement, remove the personal stuff, your request and use WU mail? I know, of course, that you are absolutely allowed an opinion, but that can be construed as a personal attack and could be a bannable offense. If you would be so kind to remove it, I won't flag it...okay? Otherwise, I'll have to flag.

Everybody has their "stuff"...
298. MayFL
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
289. Respectfully, might I ask you to modify your statement, remove the personal stuff, your request and use WU mail? I know, of course, that you are absolutely allowed an opinion, but that can be construed as a personal attack and could be a bannable offense. If you would be so kind to remove it, I won't flag it...okay? Otherwise, I'll have to flag.

Everybody has their "stuff"...


I made the correction but it was not a personal attack.
Quoting eriktheawful:
As a geologist I find the whole debate and this so called "consensus" a little puzzling. The entirety of recorded history is a mere sliver of this earth's history. We have such an investment of emotion in our tiny blip on this earth and we sure want to feel like we are having a huge impact. The earth has spent lots of time glaciated and lots of time ice free. The Co2 levels have varied greatly too with volcanism and plant growth. While we MAY be speeding up the arrival of an ice free interglacial period, we should not be fooled into thinking that it wouldn't have arrived anyway and we shouldn't be so vain as to think that we will cause an end to glaciation totally by burning fossil fuels, the next ice age will arrive with or without us, and yes we will all be dust by then. My problem with global warming is it is being billed as fact and is sucking attention and dollars away from environmental issues we have far more control over. If we rush through setting up legislation to control CO2 the politicians will defiantly get it wrong. I am all for cleaner air and feel like progress is being made on this issue. I just feel like our passion could be better used controlling deforestation, managing our fisheries and water resources, planting more trees, and creating more wilderness. We have to help the third world to not deforest the jungles and we should plant trees everywhere we can fit them in our country (we have a very unhealthy obsession with lawns and manicured gardens). Remember what C02 is... plant food.

Yep.
Agree.
Concur.
Likewise.
+1
and again.
Hey, are you atmoaggie in disguise? (j/k)
The CMC models are developing something in the Caribbean near 10N, 80W.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009103100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
To Erik-the-Geologist, greetings!

I very much like your practical and do-able ideas, like planting trees and helping less developed countries with their problems re deforestation. As a layperson what I need help understanding is the either-or approach...might we not also at least lessen the burning of fossil fuels -- e.g., continue developing electric cars? I read an article yesterday that Nissan is starting a tour of their new electric "Leaf" car, due out next year.
Or am I being naive, in your opinion?
Typhoon smashes storm-weary Philippines

* From: AFP
* October 31, 2009 11:34PM


TYPHOON Mirinae has smashed through the Philippines, killing 11 people and worsening floods in areas that were struggling to recover from recent deadly storms, officials say.

The typhoon, packing winds of up to 185km/h, is the third major storm to hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon in just five weeks, with the previous two claiming more than 1100 lives.

In Manila, areas that have been flooded since Tropical Storm Ketsana struck in late September were hit with more heavy rain today, while residents in other districts were forced onto their roofs to escape rising waters.

"We need help because the waters have risen. We need rubber boats and choppers," Ariel Magcales, the mayor of Santa Cruz town on Manila's outskirts, said.

"Some people are on the roofs of their houses."

Military and police rescue boats worked to save people who were trapped by a flash flood, officials said.
One man was found dead and his one-year-old baby was missing after they were washed away while trying to cross an overflowing creek in a rural area on the outskirts of Manila, the military said.

Three people were reported dead and five others were missing in Laguna province just south of Manila, the local disaster monitoring office said.

Seven people died in the Bicol region, south of Manila, mostly from flash floods, local disaster monitoring officials said.

Another man was missing from a Manila slum district after his hut was washed away, while two others were missing in Batangas province south of Manila after their car fell into a river when a bridge collapsed, civil defence spokesman Ernesto Torres said.

Tropical Storm Ketsana, which struck on September 26, caused massive flooding in Manila. Outlying districts that are home to more than a million people were expected to remain flooded into the New Year even before Mirinae hit.

Navy and coast guard boats had been sent to Santa Cruz to rescue people, according to Torres, who said Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro was heading to the area to check on the extent of flooding and damage.

"The waters were really high. It was like a flash flood. It was waist deep in our area but in other areas it went as high as the rooftops," traffic director Marlon Albay said.

The highway to the town was covered by knee-high waters, preventing smaller vehicles from reaching it and prompting the military to send huge trucks to help residents, according to an AFP photographer.

Hundreds of residents in these areas were seen wading through the dirty waters.

Other towns in Laguna reported flooding, along with areas in the Bicol region further to the south, Torres said.

However, more than 115,000 people had been evacuated from vulnerable regions before the typhoon hit, which likely prevented more deaths, Mr Torres said.

The typhoon caused power outages and knocked down trees across many areas of Manila, a sprawling city of 12 million people.

It also forced flights to be suspended from Manila's international airport.

Ferries, a popular form of transport in the South-East Asian archipelago, were also cancelled, ruining travel plans for many who were hoping to head to their hometowns for the All Saints' Day long-weekend public holiday.

As of 5pm (8pm AEDT), the typhoon had left Luzon and was charted 670km west of Manila, moving away from the country at 20km/h, the government weather station said.

"The worst is over for Metro Manila," weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said.
304. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:
Today's Tropical Update


In your bio you stated that you were 21, but at the age of 21, you are alot more mature than other 21 year olds I know, so pay no mind to anyone who calls you immature. You are so mature that you did not attack him and respected his views and that takes alot of courage. You do a fine job here.

Now back to weather.
Southern Hemipshere is trying kick off with 96P and 99S (below), the island to the SW is Madagascar.

Quoting MayFL:


I made the correction but it was not a personal attack.

Thank you for being willing to listen... Take off all the bold and may we consider it a diplomatic compromise?? Appreciate it.
Quoting Patrap:
The warming is not conjecture its a proven fact.What all the fuss about is the causation of the warming.
But those who deny already know that the Co2,Methane and Co3 Fairies come out every night and wave their wands and "Poof", all that Nasty Stuff goes away.

LOL

Ever been to Hong Kong on a clear day?
Ever seen the Pollutants in Beijing?

Were doing a Global experiment with fossil fuel Burning and guess who the Guinea Pigs are?

The warming will continue as the Atmosphere becomes more Polluted thru time.

China isnt going to cease its Growth,India neither.
They will have their run with Fossil Fuels on a scale that will/has dwarfed the west.

Changes already occurring will only increase as the Levels rise.



According to our own government, the global population in 2070 will be over 16 billion people. Man-made global change is inevitable.

***
Note: This post is related to the population effects on the weather...the food necessary to feed all of the population and the residual debris left by those folks. You know...all those various gases.
***

Keep in mind that the planet has all sorts of buffers built into the system.

For example. Water expands as its temperature increases. Try calculating how much sea level will rise if the oceans increase in temperature by only 2 degrees C.

Interesting problem...since heat rises, the temperature increase will tend to stay at the top and not move toward the bottom and diffuse into the surround environment. Did you know that the temperature in the deeper parts of the Atlantic Ocean are in the 30's F?

Anyway, figure out what the average depth of the oceans are and then calculate what the surface would have to be so that the average temperature would increase 2 degrees C. And then calculate how much of an increase in the levels would result from such an increase.

And that is only one of the myriad of buffered systems to be found through out this planet of ours.

Attempting to control this environment on earth is a sad example on how little we actual understand it. AGW folks are simply demonstrating their ignorance regarding this planet.

As inhabitants of this planet, we must adapt to the changing environment, not attempt to alter it. We have no idea what will happen as we attempt to alter the climate in any way. Looking forward into the future to attempt to anticipate the changes and devise methods of adaptation is a much more responsible way to go.

Unless of course you want to tell every single inhabitant that they can only have so many children or that they can't have any at all, except when the government tells you that it is okay.

Gattica anyone?

AGW...Cap and Trade are simply ruses fabricated by the wealthy to extract vast sums of money for themselves and their cohorts. Doubt me? Research the word 'propaganda' and see for yourself how many of the techniques are used everyday to silence the folks who disagree. Why else would they resort to such filth unless they had an ulterior motive such as lining their pockets with our money?
307.
"For example. Water expands as its temperature increases. Try calculating how much sea level will rise if the oceans increase in temperature by only 2 degrees C."

Better check again. Water gets denser as it warms from 0C to 4C.
"For example. Water expands as its temperature increases. Try calculating how much sea level will rise if the oceans increase in temperature by only 2 degrees C."

Short answer:
The Gulf of Mexico with a winter surface temp in the 50s (F) and a summer temp in the upper 80s (F) only rises 0.5 feet between winter and summer.

2 degrees (C), well that would have to be about 0.05 feet.

Maybe we should do this in millimeters so it looks scary...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yep.
Agree.
Concur.
Likewise.
+1
and again.
Hey, are you atmoaggie in disguise? (j/k)

Atmo-the-Awful-Aggie? (AAA)
Sorry, Awful Alliteration (yup, groaner...gimme a break, it's Halloween...I'm the class dunce here.)
NEW BLOG