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Tornado kills four Boy Scouts in Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:10 PM GMT on June 12, 2008

Tragedy struck a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa last night, when a tornado swept through, killing four Boy Scouts and injuring at least 48 people. A tornado warning was issued by the National Weather Service 12 minutes before the tornado hit the camp at 6:35 pm CDT, but it appears the campers never heard the sirens, either because the sirens were too far away from the remote camp, or because the storm caused a power outage in the nearest town of Blencoe, which silenced that town's tornado siren.

Tornadoes also hit southern Minnesota, eastern Kansas, and eastern Nebraska yesterday, and the Storm Prediction Center recorded 52 tornado reports. A tornado caused major damage in Manhattan and Kansas State University, tossing cars and destroying several businesses. A half-mile wide tornado hit the town of Chapman, destroying 60 homes and killing one person. Another person died in a mobile home in the Jackson County town of Soldier. Yesterday's deaths bring this season's tornado death toll up to 118--the most since 1998, when 130 people were killed.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) for the June 1, 2008 tornado that hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa. The tornado was embedded in a line of severe thunderstorms that swept through the state, and did not exhibit the classic hook-shaped echo one commonly sees in tornadoes. The most dangerous tornadoes commonly show a hook echo and tend to be spawned by "discrete supercells"--isolated thunderstorms that are not embedded in a solid line of thunderstorms.

Tornado activity forecast
The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Slight" risk of severe weather across the Midwest today, from Michigan to Oklahoma. We can expect a few more tornadoes today in the affected region, although probably not as many twisters as were reported in yesterday's outbreak. The "Slight" risk of severe weather continues Friday across the Midwest, then shifts to the East Coast by Saturday.

Tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico between the Florida Keys and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The thunderstorm activity is under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is moving northward into the central Gulf of Mexico. I'm not expecting this to develop, but we should keep an eye on it. None of the computer models are forecasting development of a tropical depression in the Atlantic in the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like the GOM is pretty much a dead issue now and although there is a nice blow up with the islands wave looks like shear will eventually take care of that one as well. Well, did make for an interesting day of watching satellites at least.
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499. STORMTTOP 11:23 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
SpongeBobStormPants... The leader of Stormaology


Buddy you forget that your supposed to put three dots at the end of each post followed by your handle!

storm, remind me to thwap ya one if that texas system becomes a south florida system.
A lot of subsidence behind the wave east of Barbados. This wave is using the other wave as a sheild for the dry air ahead west of 65W. Water vapor imagery shows fast moving upper level westerlies above 15N.
drak, whats the deal with the system near the BOC?
Evening all.

Guess not much happening since lunchtime 'cept more blob watching, lol.

My stretch of Texas still dry...maybe tomorrow will bring some rain...50% chance they say. C'mon blob! (Just stay small!)
Evening all.

Guess not much happening since lunchtime 'cept more blob watching, lol.

My stretch of Texas still dry...maybe tomorrow will bring some rain...50% chance they say. C'mon blob! (Just stay small!) Feast to famine as far as rain goes in Texas.
505. plywoodstatenative 11:27 PM GMT on June 12, 2008
drak, whats the deal with the system near the BOC?


Upper level low interacting with a tropical wave. No development expected.
Sorry, guess I just wanted to see myself talk...froze up and then posted twice.
i been wanting to get me a cool name for some time now this like stormdude77 did so i am thinking about uesing StormExtreme
Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)
3 Channels WV,IR,Low Cloud Product Visible

reloaded

Link
504. Drakoen 7:26 PM AST on June 12, 2008
A lot of subsidence behind the wave east of Barbados. This wave is using the other wave as a sheild for the dry air ahead west of 65W. Water vapor imagery shows fast moving upper level westerlies above 15N.

correct
484. Admittedly, convection in the present looks impressive.
Taz, we love you just the way you are!!
The Island Blob looks impressive guys and gals! Just checking in before going to volleyball and noticed the convection on the Island Blob has really fired up. Are they still considering this Invest 91L? There is no other Invest listed is why I'm asking.
neat link patrap
Taz, man, you already have about "THE" coolest name on WU already! Plus, tazmanian spins and everything, like a storm. Cool, if you do change, but please let us know when you do. I like your current name. But, that's up to you, friend! :)

Oh, how was the camping trip? Pics? Gonna post any?
Stormdude77, I do not know what part of Barbados you are from but I am yet to experience the thunderstorms that you are. Actaually, I have not even seen a flash of lightning far or less a clap of thunder. Just persistent light rains and not much wind.
Sorry folks, I gotta beg to differ. Been here way too long to let this slide by...

STORMTTOP is not our infamous Stormtop. Now all the others, yeah ya'll are probably right. But not this STORMTTOP. I'm pretty familier with the lex he uses, and that just ain't him.
it went good moon


No photos this time a round may be next year


i think i like the new name StormExtreme


i love storms and i love Extreme weather at the same time i think that name feet me this find
in agreement w/ MLC

Happy to report in Sarasota, SWFL I have a nice booming thunderstorm with a steady rain --streets are steamy, the setting sun is adding a glow to the stormy sky, it's very tropical --just they way I love it, hope the rain continues, downpours are welcome, I am in for the night
Aquak- He's a wanna be. LOL
Hey girl how ya doing? I am still at the hospital with pop. I have missed talking with everyone.
Sheri
000
ABNT20 KNHC 122333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Whatever makes you happy --don't care what name you choose --just keep up with the keen observations, great links and information......I have lots of names....people call me all kinds of things....LOL
There you go something at the least seems to be carrying a low pressure is not mentioned
Hi Sheri. Yeah, been missing our morning coffee. Sorry to hear about Pop. Good that we are fairly quiet for now, weather-wise, in the GOM.
527. SLU
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


I assumed that i'd be reading a little more than just this.
Lame question of the night......why the $$ before a weathercasters name?
Yes TAZ we love your name. Like MLC said you have one of the Coolest names on here.
Sheri
8PM NHC Discussion...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT WITH
A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM. THE GFS MODEL 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 57W-61W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRI...SPREADING OVER THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SAT
While there was nothing mentioned in the Atlantic basin TWO, there is a disturbance mentioned for the East Pacific TWO. Anyways, be back later!
Bimshire...I'm in St.Joseph, (and by this map...you can see a alot of Lightning Strikes)...

Yellow strokes are Intra or Inter-Cloud (IC)

Red strokes are Cloud-To-Ground (CG)

(strokes get thinner with time)

i had this ID for 5 years now

so it is time that i re do a new ID
I hear ya, Taz. We'll like most any name you have! Just keep making good posts and watching all this stuff. Looks like it's shaping up to get busy before too awful long! :)

Oh, if you don't use "Taz" as a name, can I borrow if for awhile?
Gulf of Mexico been a big salty lake, Put the board in the car and took a paddle the past two days after working the barn out east(oppressive heat). Great to cool off and go through the alphabet of favorite wave making hurricanes while paddling buoy to buoy. Got to get the arms ready for the next swell. Surf site thinks something up SW swell around 6/17 if we get a trough....hmmmmmmm
taz just leave your name that is how everyone knows you but the choice is yours
if everyone starts changing names I will have an identity crisis
Quite a fan club you have Taz
539. SLU
stormdude can i get the link for the lightning data?
Black sky to the east, setting sun to the west, the lighting is really dramatic --just not a lot of rain so far.
Ryan, looks like you're about to get wet.
Wow - never saw a lightening strike map - watch out for the rayos (Lightening)Does that work for different locations??
Sure SLU...right here
awww that stinks
no tropical development in the next 48 hours.
Wow - never saw a lightening strike map - watch out for the rayos (Lightening)Does that work for different locations??

I think it does, Surfmon...but I only have the location of the area around Barbados (and surrounding areas, within a 650 mile radius)...
542. surfmom 8:05 PM EDT on June 12, 2008
Wow - never saw a lightening strike map - watch out for the rayos (Lightening)Does that work for different locations??


Very interesting; note that frequent lightning is usually a sign of rapid intensification or rapid weakening of convection. Also; surfmom, there is a whole variety of lightning detector readout maps on the internet...most from the StormVue tool. This site has links to a whole bunch of them in the US alone.
thx stormdude - really fascinating. just checked outside, got a huge rainbow to the west - quite exotic here right now. BBL dog wants walk
Obviously nothing potentially tropical about the convection in the GoM. Dissipating as the sun sets.
Link Surfmom here you go
sigh
ooooh terranova, walk dog, fall into the link you just gave me - better then candy!!
553. SLU
thanks!
Well, I just did a ''google search'' and found a lightning map, for lightning that occurs around the US.

The National Lightning map shows where cloud-to-ground lightning strikes have occurred in the last hour. Lightning is an atmospheric discharge of electricity, which typically occurs during thunderstorms, and sometimes during volcanic eruptions or dust storms. In the atmospheric electrial discharge, a leader of a bolt of lightning can travel at speeds of 60,000 m/s, and can reach temperatures approaching 30,000°C (54,000°F), hot enough to fuse soil or sand into glass channels. There are over 16 million lightning storms every year.

WEll, I am the HOTSPOT on the lightening map --reconsidering walking the dog LOL
well i cant ues my new ID in here in tell my new ID is 12hrs old


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but if you like to talk to me my new ID is now call StormExtreme80
hernando44 - Wow! had no clue. Truly respect rayos after our house was hit last year. Thank goodness for the surge protection = although the TV did get fried. The BOOM knocked me out of a chair and the cats fluffed up w/static electricity - that part was hysterical, but now they all get neurotic and hide under beds when it rumbles. Lucky the new young pooch was "clueless" at the time - no lasting psychological damage there
Stormdude77, nice map of lightning strikes. Seen it before and the person who runs the site is a personal frind of mine. Have you actually seen any lightning youself? Depending where you are in St. Joseph you should have a pretty good view of any lightning to our SE. I am in the Warrens area.I have only had a 1/2'' of rain since 5.00pm. You near the new doppler radar site?
Good Evening.

IMPORTANT NOTICE

The Calabash Tree has today, June 12th, put out its New Leaves.
They are barely visible, and were noticed by my wife this afternoon.
They were not there this morning, I'm sure.

The Rainy Season is OFFICIALLY here, at 11N 61W, Trinidad.
A celebration is underway, Cheers.








So much for all the people you have "ignored". Taz
I can't possibly go back and read all the posts on this subject, but my question would be this.

Just how many Scouts, Boy and Girls, will need to die each year until 'Storm Shelters' are a Requirement at these Camps?

Each year we hear of Scouts being killed. Whether from Lightening, High Winds, and or Tornados. It seems to me that in order to be truly "Prepared", these camps MUST have Severe Storm Shelters!

Now that's Planning! That's Preparedness!

And of course, my heart goes out to everyone involved in this latest event!
Taz - why the new ID? We know you as a good source of information.

Meanwhile - we get to dodge twisters and hail AGAIN this evening.

Kansas - where Twister is not just a party game!
559. "Cheers" back at ya, Pottery!

Thanks for watching the point down that way for us! :)
dont worry frank refire to commence at the point the air temp is at or just below water temp during the night boc still maintaining good engery and up and off the yuc channel watch it now daytime convection should be disapating night max starting soon
565. SLU
Stormdude77, bimshire

When is the Barbados Radar going to be functional?
nop i can get them all on my new one

well i am off for 1 or 2hrs need time to set this new ID up get all the things on my old ID move make a note on my old blog then i be set to go
552. surfmom 8:16 PM EDT on June 12, 2008
ooooh terranova, walk dog, fall into the link you just gave me - better then candy!!


LOL; you're welcome!
I'm not seeing the lightening myself Bimshire. But plenty rain about.
STormExtreme - don't forget to let StormW know your new ID
SLU probably by 2010. You know how things operate in the Caribbean
Stormdude77, nice map of lightning strikes. Seen it before and the person who runs the site is a personal frind of mine. Have you actually seen any lightning youself? Depending where you are in St. Joseph you should have a pretty good view of any lightning to our SE. I am in the Warrens area.I have only had a 1/2'' of rain since 5.00pm. You near the new doppler radar site?

Yes, I have seen lightning frequently (although it's in between clouds, and not cloud to ground lightning; along with a couple thunder claps)

And yes...the new doppler radar is only a 5 minutes walk from where I live
The heavy rain that was forecast for Trinidad, has gone to Barbados.
This was, in hindsight, to to have been expected. Because the West Indies is battling Australia in a cricket match there. Everyone knows that when you have a cricket match, you get rain.
565 We hope to have the Doppler active by August. Sooner would be better.
555. i think i remember reading somewhere that most lightning strikes occur in florida! LOL...guess that's why it would be the lightning hotspot! :)
575. SLU
570. Barbados 12:37 AM GMT on June 13, 2008
SLU probably by 2010. You know how things operate in the Caribbean


Nahh I know of plans to start new radar systems in Barbados, Trinidad, Jamaica and Belize this year but i'm not sure how soon. They said at least the Barbados radar will be available by August.
The Trinidad doppler is supposed to be up by the end of June.
Barbados, the rain is really starting to come down now. Cricket is looking doubtful for tomorrow.Hopefully the North is getting it's fair share. When I saw mention of a calabash in another posting I was quite surprised.Should have guessed that it was another caribbean island
578. 7544
whatching the wave in the central atl nice round red ball forming but looking on the vis. dont see a spin yet might be somthing to watch for tonight at d max stay tuned
What is with that blowup down near the Windwards ???
576. pottery 8:44 PM AST on June 12, 2008
The Trinidad doppler is supposed to be up by the end of June.


send on the link when its availabe...TIA =)
581. SLU
great. i hope all the radars will be available online too
Storm Extreme80. Well I dont know about you, but I think that this blog will never be the same again without TAZMANIAN..
Can I just ask 1 silly question? Ok here ya go, how can stormtop,stormyeyes and all the alias he makes and the names and post right away, I seen a couple of nights there he was making names left and right. But hey I may be wrong just wondering. Not trying to stir the pot or cause trouble.
Sheri
atmo...you around?
Hello Bimshire, a Trini here. An ex Lodge boy too !!
561. richteas 12:31 AM GMT on June 13, 2008
I can't possibly go back and read all the posts on this subject, but my question would be this.

Just how many Scouts, Boy and Girls, will need to die each year until 'Storm Shelters' are a Requirement at these Camps?

Each year we hear of Scouts being killed. Whether from Lightening, High Winds, and or Tornados. It seems to me that in order to be truly "Prepared", these camps MUST have Severe Storm Shelters!

Now that's Planning! That's Preparedness!

And of course, my heart goes out to everyone involved in this latest event!


How many "shelters" would it take? How closely together must they be located to be of any use? And what of the poor scouts who opted to stay home, only to perish in their home which was not as sturdy as the shelter on the trail?

Sadly, bad things do at times happen to good and innocent people. It would be folly to try to make the wilderness any "safer" than it already is. Those Scouts were well trained and had practiced drills for tornadoes. They choose their site delibrately and wisely.

It was a tragedy. And I venture that a great many of them will return to the trail again.

Taz said at 8:24 that his new ID was not available for 12 hrs. Then his new ID is up at 8:35 ( stormextreme80). What goes on ?
I will send the link when I get it 456.
Pottery, what year were you at Lodge? I was there from 73 to 78 and as a boarder from 76 to 78
587. They all know Taz very well, Pottery. He's been a staple 'round these parts for some time!

I think the 12 hr thing is for new folks they don't know, hadn't blogged before. They started that new rule late in last season to help with the trolls.
574
FL is the lightning capital of the world and Tampa is the lightning captial of FL. Translation if you live is Tampa you have a better chance of being hit by lightning then anywhere else in the world.
Very concerning this flooding in the midwest. These poor farmers, outrageous diesel prices and now crop devastation, not looking good. An example how weather goes hand in hand w/economics and politics --these are the things no one can plan for. Effects my grocery bill, effects my job --I can see my raise going towards increased feed bills instead of me and my fuel tank. This is where even the privileged are going to start to feel new realties --
Bim, I'm older than you ! I was a boarder 1960 - 1965 . Loved it.
Pottery... Taz can't use his ''stormextreme80'' handle on Dr.Master's blog for another 12 hours. He can only use it on the other blogs (personal blogs)
Bimshire, we must have had over an inch since 5:00pm. What does your guage tell you?
Geeze, whereisthestorm you just made my day! I best not be a sinner....could get a direct hit from the big boss in the sky LOL

Actually a few years back, the sister of a twin I knew quite well got blasted off the beach (siesta key) it was an "out of the blue" strike - she was walking with her secret amore......never forgot that lesson
77, see post 566 ,
Stormtop obviously just keeps making new usernames, so every 12 hours he can have a new one.
599. JLPR2
The Blob looks good =P
Barbados looks like is getting soaked
they were both fried...I don't know what her husband thought about it all
sc24...where are you?

Sorry to hear about the twin.
I am very surprised that more golfers are not struck in FL since they always have those metal clubs up in the air. Most people don't realize that lightning can travel further than three miles before it strikes. It could be absolutely beautiful out and you can be struck by lightning in FL. That's why as soon as I hear thunder I tell everyone "Out of the Water, doesn't matter Ocean/Pool/Bathtub..
Barbados, I have had 1.20 inches since 5.00pm. Long may it last. The island has been really dry over the last few months and the rain we have had in tHe last ten days really has everthing nice and green.
how'd have thunk they'd be showing a windchill map in June?!?!?!

605. 7544
coud the blob by the win islands be 92l soon will it have a chance
606. DDR
LoL pottery finally,i haven't got a decent rain shower since rainy season began almost 2 weeks now,most of the showers have been in central,north east and south trinidad.There was alot of rain in freeport today.
Bim, E-mail to you.
Hi all:

New here but have been 'lurking' (like many) for a few years.....interesting place. Do enjoy learning from those individuals really in the know.
608. welcome! glad you showed up! :)
In agreement #602 - The other sport is Polo. makes me crazy when they're playing and the storms approaching. The horseshoes, the wide open field, metal bleachers, aluminum horse trailers,I get terrified sometimes, especially when I am out on the sidelines holding a horse for a quick change out. My work puts me right out there, and these guys are so crazed they don't stop until the grass gets wet, because then there is danger of the horse slipping. But lightening --they are clueless. These guys just don't understand the danger.
611. viman
G'nite everyone -- radar out of Martinique really doesn't show any circulation, but it sure has blown up alot since this afternoon.
DDR, only 5mm in Chickland today. But it all adds up. My Calabash tree put out its leaves TODAY. LOL
613. viman
Barbados St. Thomas dry too, send some up my way
614. SLU
The Martinique radar is showing a weak LLC passing right over Barbados and the winds have died down almost completely. What direction of wind and the wind speed are your guys getting now?
Regarding the husband's reaction to his wife stepping out on him and getting fried by lightening with her boyfriend: I'm sorry, but he probably thinks she got what she deserved...that's reality.
zzztime for me, up b/4 dawn tomorrow,g'nite all
Congrats on your Calabash tree showing new life Pottery. The season now has officially begun!
j
later, surfmom! dream some calm seas for me this weekend! LOL
Viman, you in Martinique or Barbados ?
Chicklet exactly what my mate said....instant karma
601. Is that a GW speckle?
622. viman
St.Thomas n u
night all...nothing happening in the tropics right now. But the Calabash tree has sprouted leaves, so all is well in the world!
j
621. now stop it, already! stop it! LOL

that is a SC23 spot...too close to the equator! ;)
The wind here is now variable...but it was coming out of the south, about half an hour ago...
by the way has any one had any hard time with the Filter tonight???
Actually, I'll say a prayer tonight that we don't lose any more scouts...such a terrible tragedy! My heart goes out to the boys and their families. As well as to the China earthquake victims and the Burmese...so much trouble in the world.
j
SLU, last puff of wind that registered was from the NE.
The gulf has been a battle between the ULL that crossed FL a few days ago & a tropical wave. I think the ULL just lost. Check out the last few frames of the RGB as the sunsets. Looks a little gamely down there in the BOC all of a sudden. Probibilities went to green as well. May see an invest soon.

pottery60...i just looked up calabash trees since they're not native here...they grow leaves like my red maple! are you going to make yourself some bowls? :)
amen, chicklit!
626. taz...er...stormextreme...why would you need a filter? LOL :)
633. SLU
628. bimshire 1:24 AM GMT on June 13, 2008
SLU, last puff of wind that registered was from the NE.


@ 8pm your airport had South @ 18mph but the pressures are very high ... 1015mb so no immediate cause for alarm.
LOL Pearland. I have often made bowls from them. Lightweight, almost indestructible. When the plastics industry realises that they cant afford to use petroleum anymore I'll start selling them as bowls and get rich overnight !
634. if you were an artist, you could paint them with cool designs and sell them to stupid turistas! LOL
Wow, impressive convection indeed (on another note, this rain will ensure we don't become a water ''scare'' country, if you know what I mean)


pottery...btw, what does the fruit flesh taste like?
SLU our airport also had only 0.01inchs of rain up to 6:00pm Other areas must have had at least 0.5 to 0.75 inches by then.It's really unbelievable why we measure the rainfall in the area of least rainfall on the entire island and use it on our national information.
91L is gone from the navy site.
Stormdude77 if we could just stop 99% of the water from going into the see we would be all right.
77, I do hope that the drainage system in the Oval can deal with that rain. How much have you measured ?
nite SLU
Radar uut of Martinique shows barbados getting the heaviest showers from this blow up. the radar sows a waek llc which is near barbados. St lucia and martinique are next in the firing line the system is under 15knots vertical shear and is moving into an area of even higher shear. pressure are high in the area so no development is expected in the near future
643. SLU
LOL ... well i've been watching the radar and the entire island has been drenched with nonstop rainfall for over 5 hours. It is just about the commence here in St. Lucia now.
Pottery I was at the oval today after the first shower. They were pulling a rope between the drinks cart and the roller over the ground. I cannot fathom what for. Then the next shower started and it hasn't stopped yet. I believe no play at all tomorrow.
folks, i'm out...have a great evening!
Since 6:00pm this evening...I've recorded 17mm of rain (might well past an inch by 6:00am in the morning). In fact, that's an understatement, LOL...
Fresh quikscat of pottery's blob..


click to enlarge..
648. DDR
No cricket tomorrow with all that rain :(
You guys send some rain to trinidad lol
649. SLU
The West Indies are doing pretty well. I hope the weather clears up over night so we can continue to strangle Australia into submission!!
this is such a slow mover that i am a bit worried for the castries basin. judgung from the amount of rain that could come from this system i would have thought that the met office should have issued a flash flood watch
Pearland, I have never seen anything, beast, bird, whatever, eat the inside of a calabash. It is dark blue/grey, turning black within minutes of exposure to the air, and smelly. I think that its sole reason for being, was its use as a container for carrying water, food, as plates, bowls, utensils etc, by the Indigenous people. The Amerindians of the Guyanas, Brazil etc still use them a lot. The wood of the tree is hard and durable and we use it to grow orchids on.
I'm not sure about that, Barbados. The head groundsman (Richard prof Edwards) said ''if we even have three (3) inches of rain till 9:00am in the morning, we would still have a 10:00am start'')...
1.73 inches so far in Rockley
I would have to see that to believe it. When I saw today how they were trying to get the little water off the surface of the outfield by pulling a rope between the drinks cart and pitch roller I have severe doubts. After spending $150M plus on the facility we have to resort to pulling a rope to get water off.
You can see on the water vapour loop, that strong westerly shear is now affecting the wave (I won't be surprised to see this area dissipate by morning)...JMO
656. SLU
our met office is full of sh@t. thats why i check my own weather on the internet

FOR THE 1ST TIME EVER THIS BLOG IS COMPLETELY DOMINATED BY ISLANDERS :)
657. SLU
our met office is full of sh@t. thats why i check my own weather on the internet.

FOR THE 1ST TIME EVER THIS BLOG IS COMPLETELY DOMINATED BY ISLANDERS!!
SLU out Met office must be on par with yours. Tomorrows forecast is todays weather.
I agree...just don't think there will be much left of the wave come tomorrow morning. It's already starting to get that "running away from itself" look. Looks like we had some things to watch today but don't think there will be much to look at tomorrow. Maybe in a week or so we will get 92L.
you so right that many persons rely on me instead of their govt met service maybe it is aconfidence thing
Looks like my Bajan friends getting a good soaking tonight !!
In case you didn't see it earlier, check out my tropical update, on my blog...Link
656 --i'm good w/that! gnite
The foresast is the same every day "bright and sunny with the possibility of showers which may be accompanied by thunder and the possibility of flooding in low lying areas" that will be the forecast every day for the next couple of months. It will be difficult for them to ever be wrong. Seems that our met office does not have internet capabilities like the rest of us and try to make up a forecast as they go.
yes the GFS is hinting at something coming out of the itcz next week which shows develpoment close to the islands/ this is something to watch next week
666. SLU
i'm out folks.... hope the weather clears up in barbados by tomorrow morning
Hi Kman. You have to be from a small Island to be on this blog tonight. I think you qualify ? LOL
Skye, thanks for the quikscat image.
Representing St Vincent hehe.. the islanders ready to invade the bloggg lol
nite all nice to see so many caribbean bloggers tonight HOORAY
Hello, svgweather...Wow, another islander, LOL

Good night SLU...talk to you later!
Good night, stoormfury!
673. SLU
:)
Stormdude..SLU nice to see us really representing the islands on the blog didnt see much of that last year...we had a storm coming our direction and i was here reading about a High Pressure in the North Eastern US lol
Hi all... was just watching a "docu-drama" on the Science Channel called "Superstorm", about a Cat 5 that they "knew" was going to hit Miami, so this team of scientists created a plan to create a storm off California to go across and deflect it out to sea. It worked, but a tropical storm near Panama, then south of Cuba(!) deflected the storm back west so it was going to strike NYC as a Cat 3.

So they cloud-seeded it to deflect it again... toward Long Island, which worked, but they still showed all sorts of people being tidal-waved to death in NYC, along with others being killed by the winds blowing in their windows and crushing them against the opposite walls.

Long story short, by the end of it, I was begging my roommates to just kill me, too, as it made a complete mockery of everything all of us try to do on here, in terms of intelligence and rational thinking. I'm not sure whether to hope others of you saw it, too, or to wish none of you did, as it was actually painful to watch. :-((

Absolute garbage, and they should be ashamed... :-((

Jo
This Blob is GOM bound.
Hey, now, some of US lubbers try to watch out for you islanders, too! ;P
Which blob is GOM bound ??
Which blob is GOM bound ??

The Blog is suffering from SLOTH again.
Or is it constipated ?
Some action going on at the surface. Found a 1008mb pressure reading around Barbados. The convection is being supported by the diffluent flow aloft. Good rains for the folks in the Central and Southern Lesser Antilles.
MLC, posts are very slow ??

I dont think anyone was implying that you guys dont watch out for us small islanders. Its all good.
Good night all! Just want to leave you all with this satellite image. By the way, tomorrow morning, I will finally make my first ever visits to the NWS in Miami and NHC. I will have pictures from my visit sometime during the weekend.
I also live on an island...
Thanks cchs. Good night to you.

Presslord, I think that the world agrees, or they should do, if they had a grain of sense, that Islands are Very Special Places.
I'm sure the British, the Aussies, and the rest of them would like to be considered Islanders as well, but, I mean, we have to draw the line somewhere.
how is the wind shear on the area of the blob east of the islands?
Well. Actually....I'm on an island off the SC cosat....
Yes I know. But an Island nevertheless. A Special Place I am sure. How far from the cosat are you anyway LOL
681. LOL, I know, Pottery. But, I had to poke at ya'll a bit! I wouldn't mind being on one of those islands myself - uuuuummmm, cept with cane coming!

I think you all are just great, the front lines, the avid and adept watchers of the fury!

MLC <-----------tips hat! :)
Looking at the latest Sat Images, seems like Barbados is in the eye of the tempest.
Have a good visit cch. Try to convince them that they should give hurricane hunter flights to old environmental scientists. I'd love to get up in one.
Latest Sat Image of our ''blob'':

I'm on the Intracosatal Waterway. About 5 miles from Atl
Hey All...Getting ready to call it a nignt, and, decided to check the Blog before shutting down the computers.......That's a pretty intense "tempest" down there by the Lesser Antilles but I see plenty of "Buffalo Soldiers" holding down the fort, on the Blog, and down there tonight.........Simmer Down Yall Every Thing Will Be Alright........WW
MLC, you know that several of the Islands have real difficulty making ends meet, as their economy is so very small.
Bananas became a major export crop in many of them. Unfortunately, a banana plant is basically an overgrown grass, no hard stem or trunk, and very little root system. The small isles around here have all had their banana crops wiped out on many occasions by wind. Even 50 mph will drop them all flat.
It takes 18 months for a plant to produce a bunch of fruit, and the plant dies after fruiting.
These islands have a long history of looking at the weather from june to October.
Thats why we are avid and sometimes even adept watchers...........
LOL WW
695. pottery 9:19 PM CST on June 12, 2008
LOL WW
......I'm out but all this Island talk is making me wanna tell my Wife to simmer me some Oxtails & Pidgeon Peas and Rice for Father's Day......Have a Great Evening...
Lordy, Press. I dont want to be derogatory , but I am not sure that you qualify for Island Dweller, in the context here. You are, in effect, a landlocked island. You are somewhat protected from the moods and swings of true Oceanic exposure. I am thinking that you may have to sail across the Atlantic, and back, before we consider your status as confirmed.

Just having some fun before sleep.......
Blog SLLOOOWWWW, but you guys had an interesting discussion tonight... G'night!
Sounds excellent, WW. I'm sure she will oblige.
Anyway, I'm going to bed, to enjoy this rain...see y'all tomorrow
77, going to bad? At this hour? Press said he lives near the cosat of NC. What is going on here.
I'm out as well. Stay safe everyone. Nice one.
Evening all :~)

Press said he lives near the cosat of NC.


lol pottery, you better hope press don't see that! He's on the SC coast, there is a difference ya know !~)
well that new ID i had was a bust and i did not like the 80 at the end of it any way


so i need to think about some in new here


got any good ID that you can think about this PM me or drop a post in my blog and i will read it in the am

good night i am so happy too be sleeping back in my own little bed weeeeeeeeee
TropicalX
whats that blob in the gom gonna do?
Hi everyone, see there's a whole lot of folks from the islands, that means I qualify to be here! How is everybody?
Not much rain in Trinidad right now but I'm happy for those in the other islands where it's raining. Think I'll go get some snooooooze myself. Take care of yourselves all...... Bye
I have been up here in Minnesota doing repair work around Blaine. I am from Punta Gorda are you Florida folks finally getting some rain ?
Have a good sleep, Taz. Kinda like seeing your regular, familiar name! :P
706. StormThug 4:19 AM

The latest GFS seems to have it going into the big bend of Fla as a disturbed area (my words) around tues. I think it could possibly develop some .
evening all...

what do yall think about trying to alter the path of hurricanes by seeding them?

and - who gets to say which direction they go??
evening all...

what do yall think about trying to alter the path of hurricanes by seeding them?

and - who gets to say which direction they go??


I thought it was already proven that seeding didn't work. Not sure what you mean by the direction part.
Checked the rainfall before going to bed last night and it was 1.20". Checked it this morning and it was 1.60". Was a bit disappointed. Was expecting more rain!!
Have a great day all.
"So far the depiction of the trof has been to far east. CPC mentions this in their 31 May discussion for June. It could decrease the risk for some areas while increasing the risk for others. Just have to see if the CFS verifies and how it sets up. A few degrees west or east with different amplitudes can make a big difference in storm tracks and threats or lack there of."

thanks, stormlvr!

morning
the topics are relatively quiet this morning. there are two ares of minor concern this morning.
one is the remnants of 91L and the tropical wave that was east of the winward islands. both systems were vvirtually destroyed by strong upper level westerlies. the systems brought less rain as was anticipated less than 1/2 an inch. the disturbed area will move north and eventuaally picked by an trough of low pressure coming off the eastern US seaboard and taken off to sea. the other is in the G/mex and that area will move on shore iin the next 24 hrs. Note environmental conditions ar not favourable for development for the next 7 days.

there is concern about theGFS is consistently hiting at some development near 35 w in the itcz.next week. there is a strong area of disturbed weather over west Africa so this could be the precursor to this forcasted system. one should remember it was the GFS which consistently forecast the development of Hurricane Dean last year.while the other global models did not latched on to it. It is with this regard that the situation should be monitored for any development next weekend
good morning
I'm having a problem with images not showing up on this site's pages. I can read most of this blog though.
We shall see what the Gulf can do at this shear speed.
Been getting a lot of rain here in Puerto Vallarta...kind of early for our rainy season to start.
good morning, folks. the air in the CAtl looks to still be on the dry side....



Good Morning All....overcast here in Saint Kitts, about to get some showers for our tropical wave. Nothing much in the tropics.
I had a good downpour overnight:)
Good morning everyone! I see our "invests" are all gone now..so nothing out there?

Hey Skye, I got another 1/2" yesterday afternoon; same as the day before, I guess if we keep getting 1/2" a day it will add up! LOL

Your area has been pretty good at getting a piece of these rainstorms from what I see.


Everyone enjoy your Friday, I will check back in when I can!
Doesn't look like much in the tropics for the next 5 days out........go enjoy the beach.
tampa, we're going to try to get offshore and do some fishing Sunday if the waves stay down!
Good morning all! Still no rain here in my part of NW Florida. We can hear the thunder offshore this morning almost like the storms are teasing us! Hopefully when the south breeze kicks in today it will push the storms north and we'll get some much needed rain.
viking same here...nothing!! need rain real bad..i see there's still a good spin down south..is that still that ULL?? or possibly something else?
Yall need this.

733. TheWeatherMan504

That would be nice!
IS THIS THE PRECURSOR OF THE LOW THE GFS IS FORECASTING

iLink
Re: 727. Skyepony
Good Morning Skye - Same here, nice downpour blew in early this morning off of the ocean around 4 AM or so.

ULL in the GOM doesn't look to be much of a threat at least for the immediate future if at all...former 91L main over SA with the northern part shearing away. Big weather story remains the midwest flooding, affecting hundreds of thousands of people with likely later global implications due to crop damage and continuing global food inflation, speculation and local shortages.

NOAA/NWS/USGS River Observations-All Locations (Graphic)
Latest flood stages and precipitation across Iowa
MODIS Flooding Imagery Comparison Between
May 19 and June 10, 2008 Across Iowa (pdf)

-----------------
Today's Stories from local sources:
Numbers coming out from flooding are just staggering
Rising water forces Mercy Medical Center evacuation
River's unthinkable rise cripples Cedar Rapids
Anamosa levee break sends contaminated sewage water flowing
100-year flood plan in Iowa City reaches breaking point
Improvements since '93 may not be enough for Iowa City
Water forces section of I-80 to shut down
In tiny Oakville, boatloads of anxiety
Jet stream shift main culprit for flooding
2-year-old and father rescued from flooded car
River engulfs parts of C.R.; 9,000 displaced
--------------------
Agricultural Impacts
AgWeb June 2008 Crop Comments
Wet weather starting to cut into Illinois corn
Harkin: Floods Likely Caused Significant Crop Losses in Iowa
Iowa: The Newest Great Lake
--------------------
Image Galleries and Slideshows
Floods of 2008 - Iowa Department of Transportation
Des Moines Register Reader-posted flooding
and weather photos

Quad-City Times, Davenport, IA Iowa Flooding 1
Quad-City Times, Davenport, IA Iowa Flooding 2
Telegraph Herald - Dubuque, IA Vinton Flood Photos
Telegraph Herald - Dubuque, IA Cedar Falls and Waterloo Flood Photos
Telegraph Herald - Dubuque, IA Elkader flood slideshow
Telegraph Herald - Dubuque, IA Iowa City Flood Photos
456
I am lost to the reason why the enhanced colour ofthe AVN when it pertains to the cold red cloud tops in tropical systems does not translate to the amount of rainfall that is predicted. i have seen it before in a number of weather systems and the amount of rainfall predicted has never materialised.
last night the amount of redness in that convection over Barbados should have caused a deluge but that was not so. I am beginning to wonder whether these cold tops are tantamount to an exageration of rainfall

I dont know if you can add the Iowa mess on the list of major disasters this yr so far but we have had too many already. On a happier note the island wave looks inverted to me got to keep a eye on it.
Good Morning All,

Here in Pensacola, we continue to get tiny pop-ups here and there in the early afternoons, but not amounting to much. Rain chances are better today and through the weekend, so fingers and toes are crossed.

Heading to Iowa next Thursday for a family reunion....I hope the rain stops there so we can enjoy family time.

Have a great day all!
737. stoormfury 9:06 AM AST on June 13, 2008

I use a different color enhanced scale...the one at the Navy...to me, the AVN at the SSD and one at the Nasa website over false the idea. I dont know if you notice, but when I do use the infrared pics at the Nasa website or SSD, I use the unenhanced infrared images.

From earlier this year: TC Jokwe



Infrared Estimates

Stage C of development:

Estimated Rain Rates

Centra Dense Overcast - 0.9 in/hr (25 mm)
Eye Wall/Wall Cloud - 1.9 in/hr (50 mm)
Outer Band Area - 0.3 in/hr (10 mm)
Embedded Convective Tops - 0.9 in/hr (25 mm)
737. stoormfury 9:06 AM AST on June 13, 2008

some of the cold tops are not necessarily strong thunderheads....some of the cold cloud tops are cirrus clouds.
By the way, sattelite rain rates are BS, they have extremely low estimate rates, I don't know why they even use em.

The rain rate in a hurricane averages bettween 4 and 8 inches per hour, many times heavier has been recorded.

Hell we had a thunderstorm with 7 inch per hour rain rate here in central Florida just the other day. It wasn't consistent, but it averaged around 4.

even the outer bands will have easily 2 to 5 inch per hour rainfall rates.

But 0.3 is like outerbands from an arctic low in the south pole, thats barely even moderate rain.

Those are completely inaccurate.
Cloud top images ,like IR are not indicative of Surface based radar returns,they dont always sync up,like 456 says.
A mature T-storm anvils out and Blooms a much larger COLD return from above by a Orbiting Sat..than what a surface radar shows in intensity or rainfall rate.
Just because one sees a large cold Top..dosent mean the surface rain fall..is the same coverage.Its two different relative things.
742. Jedkins 9:50 AM AST on June 13, 2008

Except for the United States and some parts the Caribbean....we have no choice but to use satellite based rain rates becuz of the inadequate rain guage network in the tropics.
this is probably old news here but the bbc had some footage of stormchasers driving into a tornado - they thought it was the same one as the topic of this blog... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7452416.stm
thanks 456 now i will know what to do and where to go. i will have a better handle on the rainfall estimates now. Thaks again
Quiet on the Blog today with the diminished tropical activity I see. Global Warming
The ITCZ is again south of the equator at 45W this morning! Great news! So the conveyor belt is still out of commission. Climatology has it fixed by Jun 24th plus or minus a week. We'll see. That blob knocking on the door of the Caribe failed to enter. Just became a rain event in the windwards, and is now mostly a wind event in the leewards as the shear is tearing it up going into diurnal min. Those islanders are coconut hard to crack. Looking forward to my first visit this year in the area later this month.
Re: 748

Tell it I said hi
i see some in spining down in the gulf of MX all so wind shear has drop in the gulf of MX today down to 5 to 10kt
LOL Viking... behave!
Good morning all. Just taking a peek to see what the blob is doing in the GOM today. Taz, you mentioned the wind sheer has dropped off. Is there any chance of development or will this just be a much needed rainmaker?
Good morning,all
Things are looking pretty quiet this morning,and nothing projected in the near future,but then it is June,so not surprising
Only thing that could happen in the GOM is if the Upper level low worked it's way down to the surface like last years TD10. Of course, TD10 had model support for that and this doesn't. Looks like the only game in town as everything else is quite with the downward motion of the MJO. It is interesting to note that the MJO upward motion will come around late June early July as indicated by the EWP and the GFS. We'll see if we can get anything brewing around that time.
This year marks the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Georges.

Satellite movie (MPG)
Hurricane Georges - Luquillo, Puerto Rico - Sep. 21, 1998
Where is STORMTOP? We need his comments.
good synopsis Storm,typical June tropics
In this day of webcams and video phones,seeing some amazing tornado pics.
In 6 days the UKMET office will be issuing their forecast for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
GOES WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link

Gulf of Mexico (Updated every ~10-15 mins.)
3 Channels,IR,WV and Vis Low Cloud Product Link
Quiet on the Blog today with the diminished tropical activity I see. Global Warming

Ok, I'll bite.

Take a look at the BAMS article covering details from the International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change. Link.

Interesting details about hurricanes, historical proxies, evidence of increased activity in some locations during the little ice age, and caveats associated with interpretation of those proxies (such as track changes falsely showing an increase or decrease in activity).

You guys know that proxy data shows more activity 3800 to 1000 years ago on the N Gulf coast than we have had in the last 1000 (including our "records")?

(Oops, fixed link, sorry.)
UNYSIS GFSx MON 16JUNE 0Z Link
Also, Emanuel has another hurricane-climate paper in BAMS. In this one he details some of the contributions to climate thats TC bring about.

Also admits that "it must be stressed that a good theoretical understanding of the environmental control of storm frequency is lacking." Then briefly covers what is known so far.

Lastly, he covers some of the arguments and responses from experts in the field concerning our historical hurricane record.

Rather lengthy, but here it is.
convection building in centre of swirl in sw gom nw boc area tops cooling with daytime heat movement appears stationary to slight w nw nudge
invest chances on this looks possible imo
752. smmcdavid

LOL! Sorry, couldn't resist!
STORMTOP has some very interesting and educational comments.
Could the swirl in the GOM be what the UNYSIS GFSx MON 16JUNE is hinting at or this another feature?
767. jphurricane2006

I'll second that JP!
WOW!!! we have rain!! can't believe my eyes...sure is about time!! that little swirl down south sure looks like it might be getting it's act together..sure won't take much for anything to start up nowadays in the good o'l GOM it seems..
774. waverunner

Troll alert!
mark 22.3n/93.2w disturb area
774: LMAO. Keep that up and you'll join him as a suspected extra user name.
777. Nolehead

Lucky you! Where you located again? Nothing in FWB yet today.
Looks like a gulf storm brewing?
774. waverunner

Of course you would think so, as you are he! One click of the ignore button and *POOF!* one less problem for the billy goats Gruff...LOL

Back to lurking and working
stormtop yeah
legend in hes own mind
Floater Invest: GOM
P'cola!! WE GOT RAIN!!!
hello kman
We got a floater on the GOM system. Apparently there is some interest.
780. atmoaggie 4:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
774: LMAO. Keep that up and you'll join him as a suspected extra user name.

Exactly my thoughts.
785. kmanislander

Kman, how have you been? Yep, I noticed the floater, but there is no invest named for it...
Drak, what are your thoughts on the GOM? Sorry if you've answered this, I haven't read back much.
Hi Keeper,

What's up ?. The shear in the Caribbean is keeping the early season in check but the GOM looks as if it is trying to get something going since yesterday.
I'v been mostly an observer for about 2 years, just reading your comments and I think you all are very knowledgable. I look forward to STORMTOP's comments, what is wrong with that.
Who has a good site to get local radar? Tired of the crappy TWC radar.
Hi Flood

Everything ok so far in the NW Caribbean. lots of rain in the past 2 weeks which we really needed after months of drought.

That floater invest may not necessarily be a formal invest. Sometimes we have seen a floater headed up that way over an area of interest before it is officially designated an invest. Kind of odd but thats how it's been in the past
791. smmcdavid 4:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2008
Drak, what are your thoughts on the GOM? Sorry if you've answered this, I haven't read back much.


Its a mid to upper level low. It needs to work it's way down to the surface and then we would look for subtropical development since you would have a cold-core low vertically stacked with the surface low. This is the type of development you see early in the season and late in the season where you have a persistent upper level low that sits there. Just something to monitor right now. Surface pressures are not falling and there is no indication of 850mb vorticity maximum.
Nothing up on the Navy site for the GOM at this time. I guess they will wait and see how it evolves over the rest of the day before deciding to tag, or not tag, the area officially
Wow, You have to appraise your self using a different handle?(Waverunner)
not much kman just chillin waitin on the storms i just put a floater up on gom ir un enhance 11 micron loop i get updates every 10 minutes with my weather tap account on theses floaters
The NHC has the floater that is focused on the GOM disturbance labled "Invest", I guess they are planning on tagging it soon.
ssd site has a floater invest up too now
A lurker with a question.....The local weather people are stressing the blob will be nothing but a blob. We here in Houston MAY see some rain from it. With that thought I saw the winds in the area of the blob is to drop from 10 to 15 kt to 10kt or less. How would this effect it or will it at all?
ssd floater three imagery invest gom
wait and see redrobin if anything official comes of it from NHC
Kman, glad to hear you guys got some rain; lack of the wet stuff seems to be a common complaint lately, unless you're in the upper midwest or New England...
Anything that forms in the Gulf will head to the Northwest with high pressure ridge axis of the eastern seaboard extending outward into the Gulf.
They have a floater on the fires north of me. Thats different.
New Blog
814. JLPR
new blog! =P
Weather 456, thank you for those videos,of hurricane George and Hugo in Puerto Rico, i was here for both hurricanes, and it was a terrible but amazing experience. Mother nature causes a lot of damage but i also admre the power of nature. Those videos brang lots of memories to me, i went outside a couple of time to face the hurricane winds. I know is dangerous but i can help it im a child of the caribbean.