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Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2012

A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.


Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.

Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.

New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:

Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania

Jeff Masters

Tornado Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Grothar:


You know me, I never joke.:) Here, look at this link.



Link

Grothar, you know you can't post animations from that site.

This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview.
It's still raining here. Can't wait for the severe wx to roll oh wait three test tomorrow no tracking for me
i think this MOD RISK is a bust
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Grothar, you know you can't post animations from that site.

This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview.


I did. My METHOD OF POST was copy and paste.
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

..click image for loop, and click fronts to see the 1012 Low

Quoting Grothar:


I did. My METHOD OF POST was copy and paste.


El oh el hey gro how are you today?
Quoting Grothar:


I did. My METHOD OF POST was copy and paste.


Grothar you need to use a different METHOD OF POST, copy and paste is so 90's.
Quoting Grothar:


I did. My METHOD OF POST was copy and paste.

LOL Gro.

Try a different way.
I think the Mobile area is about to get a couple MORE inches worth of rain from this training from that band forming to the south.

Low pressure center appears to be between Lakes Maurepas and Ponchartrain.
Quoting Grothar:


Doom, It looks like a Mushroom Cloud...... lol
Quoting RTSplayer:
I think the Mobile area is about to get a couple MORE inches worth of rain from this training from that band forming to the south.

Low pressure center appears to be between Lakes Maurepas and Ponchartrain.


Uh I'm thinking more of north of lake borgne and south of bay st Louis I'm not totally sure, let's hope the low doesn't slide west or you, patrap, and I will be getting trained on all night!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Grothar, you know you can't post animations from that site.

This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview.


Hey, considering I can find my PC at night, I think I do pretty good. Here, Take THIS:

Kinda looks like Jerry Garcia in Blue?
I'm pretty confident we have our second straight moderate risk bust

Quoting weatherh98:


El oh el hey gro how are you today?


Doing OK, now,98 after TropicalAnalyst just scolded me. I just found out a new definition of FOOT:

A device used to find furniture at night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL Gro.

Try a different way.


I think the mcs is starting to crank up
Quoting PedleyCA:


Doom, It looks like a Mushroom Cloud...... lol


Good evening, Grasshopper. Strange looking feature there over the South, isnt' it?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Grothar you need to use a different METHOD OF POST, copy and paste is so 90's.


Hey, in the 1890's we copied by hand and pasted with real glue.
0014z KMPX: Massive hail spike evident on multiple tilts now between Waseca and Fauribault. Reflectivities are suggesting the threat for large hail continues. Hail almost to baseball size has been reported from this storm earlier. Also will need to be on the look-out in the Medford/I-35 area in case the updraft area has increased rotation.
Quoting Grothar:


Doing OK, now,98 after TropicalAnalyst just scolded me. I just found out a new definition of FOOT:

A device used to find furniture at night.


Oh darn u stepped on it I honestly hope not, I know even after nearly 120 years, electricity is still fairly new to you so I will suggest at least starting a fire for light ... That or a flashlight... Maybe a light:)
I'm watching the cell in Kansas to be our next tornado warned storm... It's not there yet but it's getting there
TVS in the last frame...no good chaser views at the moment, so lets hope that couplet is above ground level


Quoting ScottLincoln:
0014z KMPX: Massive hail spike evident on multiple tilts now between Waseca and Fauribault. Reflectivities are suggesting the threat for large hail continues. Hail almost to baseball size has been reported from this storm earlier. Also will need to be on the look-out in the Medford/I-35 area in case the updraft area has increased rotation.
Quoting Grothar:


Good evening, Grasshopper. Strange looking feature there over the South, isnt' it?


Yes it does. Don't let them try to change how you do things Sensei. Already hard enough to remember how to do stuff as it is. Why go and add new ways and muddle the water. Simple is better.
Quoting weatherh98:


Oh darn u stepped on it I honestly hope not, I know even after nearly 120 years, electricity is still fairly new to you so I will suggest at least starting a fire for light ... That or a flashlight... Maybe a light:)

Candle possibly?
0019z KMPX: Tornadic threat appears to be increasing for the storm just SW of Faribault, MN. Broad surface rotation has been steadily increasing, seemingly in conjunction with the formation of a new appendage/RFD. Tilts just above the surface suggesting a tighter, stronger area of rotation is forming.

In the 3-6kft range, an RFD is apparent on SW with an occluded area of rotation. A tornado may be forming at this time, heading for the Medford, MN, area particularly the northern sections of town.
i totally lied great spotter view - hard to see if theres a funnel as it is getting towards dark, but it looks NASTY

Link
A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL PERSISTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RAPID STRENGTHENING IN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY 03-06Z.

Note the above, 3Z isn't until 10pm CST, though the 20Z outlook also notes that it could occur earlier.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!


Lol, I know... That's the Kansas storm I'm watching
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Candle possibly?
Ohhh great Idea wx boy
Quoting Patrap:
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

..click image for loop, and click fronts to see the 1012 Low



That has to be the LLC that broke off from the Florida straights blob a few days ago. amazing it developed so much convection so early in the season.
No idea why this storm doesn't have a tornado warning, but it needs one...desperately.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa!



Is that the cumulonimbus cloud overshooting the anvil?
picking up a hook...




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No idea why this storm doesn't have a tornado warning, but it needs one...desperately.

Quoting weatherh98:


Is that the cumulonimbus cloud overshooting the anvil?

No what that is is a storm that has a storm top over 60,000 feet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No idea why this storm doesn't have a tornado warning, but it needs one...desperately.



I would agree but it doesn't look like a killer rotation. Still needs to be warned
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No idea why this storm doesn't have a tornado warning, but it needs one...desperately.



I've seen worse. But a tornado warning would be justified, in my opinion. They may be in contact with spotters on the ground indicating that the radar is not seeing what we think it is seeing.

There is also indication that mid-level rotation might be weakening (at least briefly). Counter-point... echo tops and hail potential have both dropped in conjunction with the new RFD formation; some studies have suggested a correlation between the apparent weakening cycle of supercells and the onset of tornado formation.
0028z KMPX: Most likely location for a tornado touchdown if one were to occur would be just west or northwest of Medford, MN, perhaps near the popular outlet center along I-35. Large hail remains a threat for areas between Faribault and Medford.

In regards to the Kansas storm, it might be about to split. If so, threat for large hail from the left-mover will continue to the NNE toward the Palco and Bogue, KS, areas. Potential for the development of cyclonic rotation south of Plainville, KS.


Minnesota

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARSAW...OR
ABOUT OVER FARIBAULT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
WARSAW...
DEERFIELD...
MEDFORD...
RUSKIN...
NERSTRAND...
DENNISON...
KENYON...
BOMBAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGE WINDOWS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH WILL UPROOT TREES AND DOWN POWER LINES.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.


&&
The storm in Minnesota looks good with a nice hook but the rotation just isn't there
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No what that is is a storm that has a storm top over 60,000 feet.


Yes Ik but did the cumulonimbus part of the storm just overshoot it's anvil because you can see a huge cloud coming out the top!
Quoting winter123:


That has to be the LLC that broke off from the Florida straights blob a few days ago. amazing it developed so much convection so early in the season.


It is the surface trough that formed in the Florida Straits...you're right....

The surface trough curved W then NW while rounding the west side of the Atlantic low-mid subtropical level ridge.

The only reason it is flaring up is it moved into the eastern divergent region of a shortwave upper trough at landfall. It has been upgraded from a surface trough to a 1012 mb surface low...but that's all its going to do. However...there will be locally heavy rain like there has been in Mobile, AL.
UW-Madison to use NASA 'drone' to study hurricanes


Excerpt:

The drone will be available to the UW for three weeks this summer during hurricane season, when it will fly over and around one, or perhaps two hurricanes in the Atlantic to gather information. "[NASA is] going to fly it around 70,000 feet and loiter over hurricanes," he says.

One purpose is for "ground truthing" -- checking to see if data obtained from satellites accurately matches what's going on in the air, Velden says. Another purpose is to test "theories as to why a hurricane intensifies."
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The storm in Minnesota looks good with a nice hook but the rotation just isn't there

But what do I know?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR WARSAW...OR
OVER WARSAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
WARSAW...
MORRISTOWN...
DEERFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9322 4418 9320 4415 9346 4427 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 252DEG 11KT 4424 9336

$$




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR WARSAW...OR
OVER WARSAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
WARSAW...
MORRISTOWN...
DEERFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9322 4418 9320 4415 9346 4427 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 252DEG 11KT 4424 9336

$$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No idea why this storm doesn't have a tornado warning, but it needs one...desperately.



Yeah 75vil, 66 reflectivity, 3 inch max hail, and a vortex signature.

Hook is obvious.
this blog is always ten minutes ahead of NWS - =p


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

But what do I know?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WASECA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR WARSAW...OR
OVER WARSAW...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
WARSAW...
MORRISTOWN...
DEERFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON RADAR...IT MEANS THAT
STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY
BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9322 4418 9320 4415 9346 4427 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 252DEG 11KT 4424 9336

$$




The tornado warning issued appears to be too far west and north. Most likely area for a tornado at this time remains in the Medford area, now very close to the town itself (which is on the very edge of the warning polygon).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
730 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GOODHUE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN RICE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARSAW...OR
ABOUT OVER FARIBAULT...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
FARIBAULT...
WARSAW...
DEERFIELD...
MEDFORD...
RUSKIN...
NERSTRAND...
DENNISON...
KENYON...
BOMBAY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGE WINDOWS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH WILL UPROOT TREES AND DOWN POWER LINES.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.


&&


Well...its a "half tornado warning" I suppose...
0037z KMPX: Immediate tornado threat appears to have subsidized, at least briefly. Hail core has also dimished, meaning that most of the large hail is likely falling now near Faribault, MN.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


It is the surface trough that formed in the Florida Straits...you're right....

The surface trough curved W then NW while rounding the west side of the Atlantic low-mid subtropical level ridge.

The only reason it is flaring up is it moved into the eastern divergent region of a shortwave upper trough at landfall. It has been upgraded from a surface trough to a 1012 mb surface low...but that's all its going to do. However...there will be locally heavy rain like there has been in Mobile, AL.

Thanks for explaining it!

By the way, Sorry I'm on my phone and it somehow registered my + as a - or a flag and i can't undo it :(
I guess I'm gonna get lucky again. Sure, there's no danger, but it's so boring.
stormtracker, i got a sprinkle out of this one.............
Still raining
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC047-083-105-117-123-030130-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0005.120503T0038Z-120503T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN POTTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN TIOGA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM
SHINGLEHOUSE TO WESTLINE TO TIDIOUTE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
SMETHPORT AND KINZUA BRIDGE STATE PARK...
KANE...
PORT ALLEGANY...
GENESEE AND CROSBY...
JAMES CITY...
ROULETTE...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 66...STATE ROAD 446...
STATE ROAD 449.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CREATE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE
INCH OR LARGER.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL IN BRADFORD. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! IF TIME ALLOWS...PUT
AUTOMOBILES INTO A CARPORT OR GARAGE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGE. MOVE INSIDE A PERMANENT BUILDING
NOW TO BE SAFE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 4172 7789 4160 7854 4162 7931 4172 7884
4201 7830 4200 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 270DEG 29KT 4198 7822 4172 7871
4162 7923

$$

FORECASTER: MARTIN
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
841 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-030300-
CHEMUNG-CORTLAND-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-SENECA-
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-STEUBEN-TOMPKINS-YATES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...BOONVILLE...CORNING...CORTLAND...
ELMIRA...ITHACA...ONEIDA...PENN YAN...SENECA FALLS...SYRACUSE...
UTICA...WATKINS GLEN
841 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.NOW...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCT A QUICK HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

$$
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF ROCHESTER MINNESOTA TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAMP
DOUGLAS WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN WI. THE EWD
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING AND WARM ADVECTION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON



How do u upload images from twisterdata.com?
Quoting weatherh98:
How do u upload images from twisterdata.com?

Like any other photo.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Like any other photo.
its not gif or jpg

lemme try

Quoting weatherh98:
its not gif or jpg

lemme try



see it didnt work
SPC has removed the moderate risk area with the latest update. Now it's just a vast sea of Slight Yellow...
Quoting weatherh98:
its not gif or jpg

lemme try


Oh, I see.

You have to right click on the image, copy image url, and then paste it into the image button box here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, I see.

You have to right click on the image, copy image url, and then paste it into the image button box here.


yea thats what i did, properties, url, copy, paste
Phew!

No crow for me.
Quoting weatherh98:


yea thats what i did, properties, url, copy, paste

Try my method.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phew!

No crow for me.


say wha?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Try my method.


which is? right click and copy url? where is the url?
Quoting weatherh98:


which is? right click and copy url? where is the url?

Right click --> Copy image url.

Then put it in the box that pops up when you click image by right clicking and pasting.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Right click --> Copy image url.

Then paste it in the box that pops up when you click image by right clicking and pasting.


THERE IS NO IMAGE URL UNLESS ITS UNDER PROPERTIES BROSKY!!!!:)
Quoting weatherh98:


THERE IS NO IMAGE URL UNLESS ITS UNDER PROPERTIES BROSKY!!!!:)

Easy there! I struggle with those images too... What I do is save the image, take it to this website

Link

Upload it, and it gives you the image URL for blogs like this.

Lot of work but I don't know any other way
Quoting weatherh98:


THERE IS NO IMAGE URL UNLESS ITS UNDER PROPERTIES BROSKY!!!!:)

This is what pops up after you right click on the image.



All you have to do after clicking "Copy image URL" is click on the "Image" button here and paste.
Quoting weatherh98:


THERE IS NO IMAGE URL UNLESS ITS UNDER PROPERTIES BROSKY!!!!:)


Change MODE to animated loop, stop loop on image you want then right click.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is what pops up after you right click on the image.



All you have to do after clicking "Copy image URL" is click on the "Image" button here and paste.

Ahhhh ur on google chrome my dad won't get it lol

I'm on Internet explorer
Quoting weatherh98:

Ahhhh ur on google chrome my dad won't get it lol

I'm on Internet explorer


See comment 579 because I'm also on Internet explorer
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Easy there! I struggle with those images too... What I do is save the image, take it to this website

Link

Upload it, and it gives you the image URL for blogs like this.

Lot of work but I don't know any other way

Imgur is quicker than tinypic.
I knew that Kansas storm would eventually be tornado warned!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
827 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 823 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF LOGAN...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILLIPSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGAN AND SPEED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 9963 3972 9928 3957 9945 3957 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 214DEG 16KT 3959 9957
HAIL 2.50IN

$$

ADO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Imgur is quicker than tinypic.

Wow, that is fast... Thanks!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Change MODE to animated loop, stop loop on image you want then right click.




Thanks nrt


So yall were both wrong... kids these days:)

Notice the kansas storm started over that one spot in kansas
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow, that is fast... Thanks!


Also,imageshack.us is fast.

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Wow, that is fast... Thanks!


look at nrts


comment its a genious
Plenty of rain is expected in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands for at least the next 48 hours as a trough moves slowly thru the area.

Quoting weatherh98:

Ahhhh ur on google chrome my dad won't get it lol

I'm on Internet explorer


I think Firefox works the best with the weather stuff I do, but I actually post from my phone more than anything... I'm on my iPhone 3GS right now and I can upload images...

Tomorrows severe outlook:

Quoting weatherh98:




Thanks nrt


So yall were both wrong... kids these days:)

Notice the kansas storm started over that one spot in kansas

Can't help you use the worst browser known to man...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Plenty of rain is expected in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands for at least the next 48 hours as a trough moves slowly thru the area.




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can't help you use the worst browser known to man...


Could u tell my dad that
Quoting weatherh98:


Could u tell my dad that

No.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think Firefox works the best with the weather stuff I do, but I actually post from my phone more than anything... I'm on my iPhone 3GS right now and I can upload images...

Tomorrows severe outlook:



I have a 4 s and I'm on it now what do I do?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


Lol
3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can't help you use the worst browser known to man...


So you haven't used Midori. Then that would be the worst.
Quoting weatherh98:


I have a 4 s and I'm on it now what do I do?


Put your finger on the image, wait until the window pops up, then choose "copy image". After that, start a comment, then click on the image button above the comment space and paste it there. Then you can click post and it should appear on the blog if you did it right.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Put your finger on the image, wait until the window pops up, then choose "copy image". After that, start a comment, then click on the image button above the comment space and paste it there. Then you can click post and it should appear on the blog if you did it right.
Oh sweet


I seriously love y'all!! Learned two things tonight!
It is getting dangerously dry around South Central Texas again, 87 brush fires in April and here is a Special News Report : http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/local/austin/brush-fi res-spark-with-no-rain-in-sight
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )
Linking cuz the forum-program breaks overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters in web-addresses... 604 bohonkweatherman: Brush fires spark with no rain in sight
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get your images?
Quoting HurricaneTracker01:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get your images?

Are you referring to post #606?
610. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:

Wild summer a comin!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )


Sure it has to be in video form because those folks don't like to read.
(Sorry if I missed your point!)
good night, everyone.
looking forward to whatever this season holds!
612. wxmod
Sahara dust will probably choke off buildup from the East making Africa waves unlikely for a while.



Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:





Here is the latest discussion regarding this rain event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AREA AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS...
THEREFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING

IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!
More heat hysteria from this guy.
I wonder why I never see the following? because it doesn't support the "agenda".

The high temperature yesterday may 1st was 32 degrees at the
Fairbanks International Airport. This was the lowest high
temperature ever observed on may 1st at Fairbanks.
605 CaicosRetiredSailor: The Truth About Wind Power
611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd
620. wxmod
Quoting gulfbreeze:
IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!


Because of chaos.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!
Perhaps because Europe didn't have a cold winter. That two-week cold snap at the January/February transition was anomalously deep and long-lasting, but even it wasn't enough to offset the above-normal to much above-normal winter most of the continent experienced.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...
; )


Is it just me or everyone in that video sounds incredibly stupid? Or maybe that was the point?

Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor:
The Truth About Wind Power

611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows catering
to the "science is evil, deny everything scientists say" crowd.


Thanks for clearing that up ;)
Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor:
The Truth About Wind Power

611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd


Onion has a wonderful parody for everything. This one is by far my favourite. :P And this one...to be honest all of their videos are epic XD
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?
617 gulfbreeze: IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!

Because Europe didn't have an unusually cold winter. A section of CentralEurope was colder than normal for a week or few, and parts of SouthernEurope were colder than normal for a day or few.
But on the whole, Europe had a much warmer than average winter.
The Onion has had a number of stories passed off by others as fact.

Edit: some weather related vids from The Onion.

Hurricane Bound for Texas Slowed by ...

Meteorologists Predict Worst Autumn Ever

There also are a lot of heavy gauge conspiracy nuts on the same YouTube pages as The Onion. Not sure how Google/YouTube lumped them together.

However, this one is intentional satire from The Onion.
Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.








Well bloke that's a weee bit scary!
New blog entry out from "The God Species." This entry discusses Boundary #1, "Biodiversity." Link

Lynas divides chapter three into five interesting, interrelated, sections titled "Biodiversity," "The Pleistocene Overkill," "The Sad Story of the Sea," "Biodiversity and the Earth System," and "The Price of Pandas."

I found this chapter to be fascinating and have learned a lot of interesting things I never knew before. Give it a read and drastically increase your knowledge on the most recent findings regarding biodiversity!

This blog will be updated on the first of each month over the next twelve months, with a new subject for each environmental issue. The order of these topics will be the following...

March 1st: Preface
April 1st: Introduction: The Ascent of Man
May 1st: Boundary 1: Biodiversity
June 1st: Boundary 2: Climate Change
July 1st: Boundary 3: Nitrogen
August 1st: Boundary 4: Land Use
September 1st: Boundary 5: Fresh Water
October 1st: Boundary 6: Toxics
November 1st: Boundary 7: Aerosols
December 1st: Boundary 8: Ocean Acidification
January 1st: Boundary 9: Ozone Layer
February 1st: Epilogue: Managing the Planet
--------------------------------

Here's the link:Link
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?


1951, 1957, 1968, 1976, and 2002, with the best of these being 2002.
Quoting Jedkins01:




Well bloke that's a weee bit scary!


It's not a weee bit scary, it's horrifying. While everyone will be able to adapt to a changing climate, crops can't. Quick fluctuations completely ruin crop yields. Imagine significantly reduce crop yields across the planet, now imagine what happens to 6 billion people and not enough food to feed them all. While, in the current state, we would never go to war with countries like Mexico or China and we would not even consider using nuclear weapons, I can promise you that our current train of thinking and our current moral guide (as questionable as it already is) goes completely out the gutter when you're faced with simple survival. We will invade, kill, pillage, nuke, whoever we have to to keep our people and our country alive.

Quite simply we have a serious population issue that is already at the tipping point in-terms of sustainability. There is no question that a quick climate shift will cause our population to tip and there is no question that this will cause a war. WW3 will be about resources and billions of people will die, let's just hope it isn't in our lifetimes.
Quoting pipelines:


It's not a weee bit scary, it's horrifying. While everyone will be able to adapt to a changing climate, crops can't. Quick fluctuations completely ruin crop yields. Imagine significantly reduce crop yields across the planet, now imagine what happens to 6 billion people and not enough food to feed them all. While, in the current state, we would never go to war with countries like Mexico or China and we would not even consider using nuclear weapons, I can promise you that our current train of thinking and our current moral guide (as questionable as it already is) goes completely out the gutter when you're faced with simple survival. We will invade, kill, pillage, nuke, whoever we have to to keep our people and our country alive.

Quite simply we have a serious population issue that is already at the tipping point in-terms of sustainability. There is no question that a quick climate shift will cause our population to tip and there is no question that this will cause a war. WW3 will be about resources and billions of people will die, let's just hope it isn't in our lifetimes.




Why is this a one way conversation? Your assuming I'm someone who ignores Climate Change and other global issues, buuuut I was just having a bit of fun by speaking sarcastically. Settle down man, lol.
632. JRRP
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?

1951

2002


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )


Darn it. I was hoping for a morning's laugh but the "News Report" hung up on the 22nd second and I couldn't get it to restart.

I was very interested to see how these windmills were going to negate the gravity of the sun. And just a wee bit skeptical.
Wow, that's as close as I've been to a slight risk so far this year... Instead I'm in one of those exciting green regions:



The SPC has slight risks for today, tomorrow, and Saturday and a day 4 outlook has been issued for Sunday
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?

1951, 1968, 2002, and 2004. As Kori has already pointed out, 2002 is the best out of all of those.
618 owenowen: I wonder why I never see the following? because it doesn't support the "agenda".
The high temperature yesterday May 1st was 32 degrees at Fairbanks International Airport. This was the lowest high temperature ever observed on may 1st at Fairbanks.

Cuz photos of the typical Fairbanks resident
suggest that it isn't even cold enough to wear pants.
BTW
Your use of scare quotes (ie "agenda"} signals that you're skeptical about the idea that those who propound that GlobalWarming is real actually have an agenda.
That way lies Perdition. Next you'll be denying that there is a conspiracy amongst them.
Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor: The Truth About Wind Power
611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd


Yes, those people who actually spend years studying what they are talking and writing about, elitists!
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.
One step closer to the end.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


I dont have finals until the end of the month, but I do have the SAT on Saturday, AP exams next week, and Virginia SOLs the week after... Then I have finals. However, we do actually get out 2 days earlier due to lack of snow days this year...
Good morning. A flood watch is up for all of Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands until Friday evening.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-040000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.120503T0829Z-120505T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
429 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE OVERALL AMOUNTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

BCS/ER
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


Yeaup me too, 2 weeks I'm taking a alg 1 honors final Spanish final world geography final religion final (way easy) English honors final and I too have an earth science final


Not a very happy camper
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I dont have finals until the end of the month, but I do have the SAT on Saturday, AP exams next week, and Virginia SOLs the week after... Then I have finals. However, we do actually get out 2 days earlier due to lack of snow days this year...


I have a weird 8th grade graduation thing therefore I get out a week early
Interesting meso low WSW of Tampa moving NE. Models weren't showing this so this is interesting as it could provide a better chance of storms along the westside of FL this afternoon.


Who the hell brought up GW now?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting meso low WSW of Tampa moving NE. Models weren't showing this so this is interesting as it could provide a better chance of storms along the westside of FL this afternoon.



No, that's headed or mobile
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who the hell brought up GW now?


Seriously
Quoting weatherh98:


No, that's headed or mobile


This mass of convection is moving NNE or NE. However lots of dry air in the upper levels could prevent this from making to FL but what it could do is add enough lift to spark a few storms toward the FL west coast.
Link
Quoting weatherh98:


Seriously
Well it's almost a month till hurricane season so...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it's almost a month till hurricane season so...


Yep, and here is the chart.


Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yep, and here is the chart.




Be hold the CHART
that bermuda high needs to move away..we may break a record today for heat
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link
the CMC shows a low moving down the east coast







and then moving back inland to SC and riding back up the coast


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link


It's definitely moving toward the NNE or NE but the problem maybe the dry air in the upper levels over FL eventhough dewpoints are in the low 70's at the surface but above at like 10,000 feet the air is very dry so we will see.
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


Please.. :P
Are you taking IB?
I am, and I got Biology, Chemistry, English, Math, Spanish, Geography exams June 4th - June 7th.

Plus I got SAT this saturday (no pun intended).
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's definitely moving toward the NNE or NE but the problem maybe the dry air in the upper levels over FL eventhough dewpoints are in the low 70's at the surface but above at like 10,000 feet the air is very dry so we will see.


It is situated right on the Eastern boundry of a very dry upper level Tutt cell which is probably enhancing the current convection but it may not last. It is basically boxed in between the Tutt cell (and very dry air to the left) and the Peninsula of Florida to the West. Like the old song by Dr. John; " I was in the right place, but it must have been the wrong time"....

Link
628 MariettaMoon: Link to personal WUblog on Man and Biodiversity

Nice idea for your main Blog-topic. And a nice presentation: nice enough to make me wonder whether you might be running afoul of copyright restrictions.
If you're not doing so already, a month between new bloggings on the topic gives you time to write your own thoughts about the most interesting points made in the author's chapters.

Since he appears to have written a chapter on Nitrates, I'm surprised at his failure to mention the possibility of an upcoming Phosphate Crisis as a boundary.
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.
It is gettin close, May-3 already, went by quick fer me. I am hoping we get through another one without someone being socked with a bad one. ..Those fresca,s sound good already and its only 8 a.m....:)..I thought this was sorta interesting..
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)
Quoting jeffs713:
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)


You're a weather junkie like us but you are in totally different field of work, like a 360 opposite type of interest
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.


Waiting for the crow, fresca and the chart in 20 minutes oooohhj
667. SuzK
Quoting wxmod:


Because of chaos.


And this is the whole thing in a nutshell. Meteorology is the chaos theory in action, dealing mostly in probabilities. We've taken the physical/chemical foundations of our planet, specifically, ozone loss, ramping up the ppm of everything in our atmosphere, blasting deep into the mantle, injecting chemicals into the atmosphere to geo-engineer the climate...and then get excited when the chaos ramps up too. Chaos is. Wouldn't we be excited to experience mega chaos from the hand of nature? If we can do it, she certainly can. And it is that propitious moment, 2012.

Question: I see the dust is blowing at us from east (Sahara) and west (China) simultaneously. This is normal to a degree, but who can elaborate on its affects to North America's current climate situation. Are the winds stronger this time around? I find it curiously interesting, plus aren't we transitioning to El Nino at the same time.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.


Oh I hope so.

The Gulf Coast has really come a long way since 05.

We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.

It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.
And a Wunderful Happy Birthday to my Wife today.
Quoting RitaEvac:


You're a weather junkie like us but you are in totally different field of work, like a 360 opposite type of interest

"360 opposite", huh? I'm so opposite I'm exactly identical? hehe

And yes, I freely admit I'm a weather junkie like the rest of you.
I wonder if this could happen for real, posted it yesterday, but wanted to see what others might say about it......On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases%u2014an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation/ Great Ocean Conveyor. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, while red paths represent surface currents
the GFS shows the low as well but loses it in the run







668 Patrap: We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.
It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.


Hence the early delivery of the Fresca supply.
Yep! Looks like hurricane season over Texas. :)

Quoting Patrap:


Oh I hope so.

The Gulf Coast has really come a long way since 05.

We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.

It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.


Gulf coast is pretty resilient
671. hydrus 9:13 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

It will probably (hopefully) not happen in our lifetime but that is the big-ticket issue/game changer in terms of global climate change if you can definitively isolate a cause and effect between greenhouse emissions and the ocean circulations. With that being said, it has happened many times in the past due to natural earth cycles (Ice Ages as an example). The Gulf Stream is the prefect example.
Quoting jeffs713:

"360 opposite", huh? I'm so opposite I'm exactly identical? hehe

And yes, I freely admit I'm a weather junkie like the rest of you.


Sorry 180
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


Excerpt:


ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
671. hydrus 9:13 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

It will probably (hopefully) not happen in our lifetime but that is the big-ticket issue/game changer in terms of global climate change if you can definitively isolate a cause and effect between greenhouse emissions and the ocean circulations. With that being said, it has happened many times in the past due to natural earth cycles (Ice Ages as an example). The Gulf Stream is the prefect example.
I have been fascinated with the Ice Ages since I was a kid.Northern hemisphere glaciation during the last ice ages. The accumulation of 3 to 4 km thick ice sheets caused a sea level lowering of about 120 m. Also, the Alps and the Himalayas were covered by glaciers. Winter sea ice coverage was much more limited in the south.The second ice age, and possibly most severe, is estimated to have occurred from 850 to 635 Ma (million years) ago, in the late Proterozoic Age and it has been suggested that it produced a second[1] "Snowball Earth" in which the earth iced over completely. It has been suggested also that the end of this second cold period[1] was responsible for the subsequent Cambrian Explosion, a time of rapid diversification of multicelled life during the Cambrian era. However, this hypothesis is still controversial,[2][3] though is growing in popularity among researchers as evidence in its favor has mounted.

A minor series of glaciations occurred from 460 Ma to 430 Ma. There were extensive glaciations from 350 to 250 Ma. The current ice age, called the Quaternary glaciation, has seen more or less extensive glaciation on 40,000 and later, 100,000 year cycles.
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.
yes very dry here in central Florida as well, rainy season is supposed to start in 4 weeks so they say..lets see
Quoting jeffs713:
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)
Ohhhhh very good Jeff.I hope you succeed in your career .I remember when I was younger and it took me 10 years after high school to complete school and get a profession that I really liked.
Quoting Patrap:
And a Wunderful Happy Birthday to my Wife today.
well Happy birthday to her on her special day
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
didnt Andrew come in an off year supposed slow year ?..pat said it right, prepare and be ready..every year regardless..
Hydrus: post: # 671.  Good post.  One of the very great events that really propelled my interest into Climate vs. weather was the infamous Younger Dyras event.


Though there are differing theories still out on to what triggered the start and end of the event, it still amazes me of just how quickly the global temperature dropped and increased in a matter of decades, though the event itself last nearly 
10,800 B.C. and 9,500 B.C.





Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University



Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.


Hope y'all get your rain. We managed to get a few clouds and thunder and lightning last year. And not a drop of rain. Still got my fingers crossed that the sea breeze showers return this year.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes very dry here in central Florida as well, rainy season is supposed to start in 4 weeks so they say..lets see


We had some brief heavy rain here yesterday, about 0.25, sure wasn't much, but it's better than nothing, I also got 0.61 on Sunday, so we are getting a few small sea breeze storms here and there lately at my place.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )

Windmills don't work that way
Quoting LargoFl:
didnt Andrew come in an off year supposed slow year ?..pat said it right, prepare and be ready..every year regardless..


I went through Andrew. Slow La Nina year with 10 total storms but the "A" storm that did not form until late August was all she wrote; and a rapid intensification nightmare at that...............
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link



The issue is not whether it will dry out or not. What you see there with that complex of convection is an elongated low level convergence zone. If you didn't noticed before, very dry air aloft was once present there, that is until significant low level convergence eventually forced the higher surface moisture upward, therefore moistening the environment.


Because of that, it is possible for that area of thunderstorms to make it to Florida, however, I doubt it will stricly for the fact that the near shore waters become highly unfavorable for thunderstorms during the day, and those convergent zones only last so long, and as it approaches Florida the changes in wind direction with height would most likely disrupt the convergence focus.



Most people forget just how big of an influence the daily cycle is. What I mean by that is the land is more favorable for convection over land during the day, and less during the night. However, over water it is the opposite, it is more favorable over water at night and less during the day. This is even more extreme with the near shore waters. In case anyone noticed, thunderstorms during the day in the gulf always weaken dramatically as they reach the near shore waters, regardless of how overall favorable the atmosphere is for convection. However, the prime time for thunderstorms off the water here on the west cost of Florida is between 3 AM and 9 AM. The time frame isn't always like I said, but you get the idea.

Total moisture through the column:

692. Jedkins01 9:52 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

You a good Man Jed with a nicely explained correction to my comment; that is why were are here (to learn from one another).........Your informed comment and tact is greatly appreciated............ :)
I have always been interested in this event, which still has little explanation and occured about 5200 years ago.


Link
654 ncstorm: That bermuda high needs to move away...we may break a record today for heat

I thought GFS was predicting that a Low would develop in the middle of the line where the Bermuda-AzoresHigh normally wanders. Has GFS changed its mind?
Quoting aspectre:
654 ncstorm: that bermuda high needs to move away..we may break a record today for heat

I thought GFS was predicting that a Low would develop in the middle of the line where the Bermuda-AzoresHigh normally wanders. Has GFS changed its mind?


No it still develops it..I posted a picture of it in one of my previous posts off the east coast and one heading to bermuda
This may clear things up



Quoting Grothar:
I have always been interested in this event, which still has little explanation and occured about 5200 years ago.


Link


Shows just how fast that happened
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
692. Jedkins01 9:52 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

You a good Man Jed with a nicely explained correction to my comment; that is why were are here (to learn from one another).........Your informed comment and tact is greatly appreciated............ :)



thank you! And BTW, I didn't intend to belittle anything you said, I just love to teach what I love!