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Tornado drought: only 3 U.S. tornadoes during May's first week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on May 08, 2013

With just three tornadoes during the period May 1 - 7, 2013 has had the third-fewest U.S. tornadoes during the first week of May since record keeping began in 1950. The only year with fewer tornadoes during the first week of May were 1970 (zero) and 1952 (two.) During the ten year period 2003 - 2012, the U.S. averaged 73 tornadoes during the first week of May, with a high of 239 during May 1 - 7, 2003. The three May 2013 tornadoes have all been week EF-0 twisters, and none have hit the Midwest's tornado alley:

May 2: An EF-0 tornado with 70-mph winds hit Boca Raton, Florida, tossing lawn furniture around, downing a few trees and fences, and breaking one window. The tornado stayed on the ground for just four tenths of a mile and was only 50 yards wide; nobody was hurt.

May 4: An EF-0 tornado damaged barns and outbuildings near Elkton, Florida.

May 6: An EF-0 tornado with 50 mph winds passed through Bakersfield, California. The 25-yard wide tornado lasted two minutes and stayed on the ground for 1/4 mile. This tornado was not related to a supercell thunderstorm like most tornadoes are, but instead was a "landspout" tornado, caused by the interaction of the inflow into a thunderstorm with a ground-based swirling area of winds.


Video 1. One of May 2013's scant total of three tornadoes during the month's first week: an EF-0 tornado with 50 mph winds passes through Bakersfield, California at 7:10 pm PDT on May 6, 2013. The 25-yard wide tornado lasted two minutes and stayed on the ground for 1/4 mile.

Here are the record low years for the May 1-7 period, as I tabulated using 1950 - 2012 data from the Tornado History Project:

1970 - 0
1952 - 2
2013 - 3
1951 - 3
2011 - 4
1966 - 5
1957 - 7
1963 - 8
1962 - 8


Figure 1. Running 12-month total of (E)F1+ tornadoes starting in January 1954 and ending in April 2013. The record high and record low have both occurred during the past three years. EF-1 and stronger tornadoes are better to use when studying long-term trends in tornadoes, since weaker EF-0 tornadoes were significantly undercounted in the first few decades of the historical record. Image credit: Dr. Harold Brooks, U.S. Severe Weather Blog

Unusually cold spring weather to credit for the 2013 tornado drought
The low May tornado numbers come on the heels of an usually quiet March and April for tornadoes. The cause? Unusually cold weather in the Midwest, including last week's remarkable May snowstorm. Thanks to the cold spring in the Midwest during 2013, and the 2012 Midwest drought, the 197 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes that occurred during May 2012 - April 2012 was an all-time minimum for any twelve-month period since at least 1954, wrote tornado researcher Harold Brooks at the U.S. Severe Weather Blog (previous minimum: 247 tornadoes from June 1991-May 1992.) The death toll of just seven was also a record low for any twelve-month period since 1950. This is all the more remarkable since this record minimum in tornado numbers occurred less than two years after the record maximum: 1050 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes from June 2010 - May 2011. The extraordinary contrast underscores the crazy fluctuations we've seen in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns during the past three years. Call it "Weather Whiplash" of the tornado variety. A blog post by meteorologist Patrick Marsh of NOAA's Storm Prediction Center argues that the record 12-month tornado maximum of 1050 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes from June 2010 - May 2011 was a 1-in-62,500 year event. The record 12-month minimum of 197 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes that occurred from May 2012 - April 2013 was a 1-in-3000 to 1-in-4000 year event. In Marsh's words: "Anyway you look at it, the recent tornado "surplus" and the current tornado "drought" is extremely rare. The fact that we had both of them in the span of a few years is even more so!"


Figure 2. A reminder that May tornado seasons that start out quietly don't always end that way: the May, 2011 tornado season had only four tornadoes during the first week of May. However, the EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011 cost $2.8 billion, making it the most expensive tornado in world history.

The forecast: quieter than usual during the coming week
The weather will warm up over tornado alley the remainder of the week, but tornado activity should will stay well below average--NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather over isolated portions of the country Wednesday through Friday, with damaging winds, not tornadoes, expected to be the primary threat. But things can change in a hurry in the Midwest. The first week of May in 2011 only had four tornadoes, yet that month ended up as one of the most devastating tornado months in history: 326 tornadoes, 178 deaths, and well over 1,000 injuries. The EF-5 tornado that hit Joplin, Missouri on May 22, 2011 cost $2.8 billion, making it the most expensive tornado in world history.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

RAMMB finally got 24S up. Forecast to peak at 65kts.

Extreme Weather in Germany on Thursday, 09 May, 2013 at 18:38 (06:38 PM) UTC.
Description
A lightning strike has injured 39 people, eight of them severely, at a Father's Day party in eastern Germany. More than 500 people were attending Thursday’s event in a village near the city of Schwerin when lightning struck a group of trees and a nearby switch box on the village fairground. Police spokesman Joerg Bruhn said many visitors at the fairground suffered burns and were treated for shock. Two rescue helicopters were called to the village of Dabel as well as several ambulances. On Father's Day in Germany, men traditionally go on day trips or simply get together to drink lots of beer, without their families.


Quoting JNCali:
What about HURRCON?


NASA uses Hurricon.
Hailstorm in India on Thursday, 09 May, 2013 at 13:06 (01:06 PM) UTC.
Description
Over 200 houses, especially tin- roofed and those with asbestos walls, were damaged in rain and hailstorm in different areas of Kolasib district in Mizoram, official sources said today. Sixty-three houses were damaged in Kolasib town and 100 others in nearby Thingdawl village in the rain and hailstorm yesterday, the sources said. Around 40 houses were also damaged in Bukpui village along the Serkhan-Bagha road and three houses were damaged in Sethawn village, they said. Several landslides, which occurred due to rains, also blocked a number of roads in Kolasib town, they said.
504. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:
RAMMB finally got 24S up. Forecast to peak at 65kts.



Its been up nearly an hour now that I know of ... But not on the Navy site
Extreme Weather in China on Thursday, 09 May, 2013 at 04:48 (04:48 AM) UTC.
Description
Heavy rain started to lash 24 cities and counties in Hunan on Tuesday, killing three people and leaving 165,000 more affected, the provincial civil affairs bureau said in a statement. The rain also toppled 300 houses, forced the relocation of 1,600 people and damaged 14,000 hectares of crops. In Changsha, capital city of Hunan, rainstorms inundated roads and houses in low-lying areas and crippled traffic on Wednesday night. Rainstorms are forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday, while they will abate on Friday, according to provincial meteorological authorities. The weather is expected to clear up over the weekend.
Quoting VR46L:


Its been up nearly an hour now that I know of ... But not on the Navy site


I've seen it on this navy site since yesterday.
NRL has it too.
508. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:
NRL has it too.


But they are still calling it Invest ...aye its been on there for the last day but as an invest ...as far as I can tell
Good day all. Have not checked in for a while. How is everyone doing? Here in St. John's city (Antigua) it's overcast, dark clouds are gathering in the south and I see we are in for some serious showers. On the edge of another hurricane season - BE PREPARED.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Those are some pretty astonishing stats. While some will continue to claim the 2011 tornado "surplus" was just an observational oddity caused by more people living in the tornado areas, and others will claim the 2013 "drought" is just a natural fluke, it seems that a robust statistical analysis strongly suggests otherwise.

Whiplash, anyone?;-) I couldn't agree more.
Only time will tell, and maybe a very long time, scores of millenia. I'm wary that you agree. lol
...

Case anyone's interested,

Oklahoma's own Reed Timmer works for KFOR, an Oklahoma City TV station. Unless he has a day off, he'll be chasing north of Red River for his job, which is looking out for and communicating with his general Okie public. When things are hot, KFOR's TV broadcasts including livestream will feature him.

Also, a LT count may not mean a lack of severe storms action, only a Low Tornado count.

Also, where I come from, most often the right-turning part of a splitting supercell is more dangerous in terms of rotation.

Also, the utility locate guy came early this morning. Now I am forced to plant the azaleas.

Anyone else hear the echo in here?...

NWS Norman hazardous weather outlook
Typical May weather for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST THU MAY 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CUBA WILL
ROTATE TROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WHILE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM A LOW
THAT FORMS NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND ON FRIDAY. TROUGHING
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE
TRAILING FROM THE NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
BUILD SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND PEAK ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS PEAK TONIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING BUT MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN. THE 24 HOUR TOTAL AT SAN JUAN AS OF 3 PM AST TODAY WAS
3.50 INCHES. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SAN JUAN WILL REACH THEIR RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE
DAY OF 2.74 INCHES BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEY WILL NEED ONLY 0.16
INCHES MORE. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE FORMING ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO FROM UTUADO TO RINCON AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW
THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM AST. THEN MOIST FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL DRIVE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO MAKING
SHOWERS LIKELY TONIGHT. PERSISTENT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AT LOWER
LEVELS FRIDAY WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...TO KEEP THE AREAS SOILS SATURATED.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO SEE MOISTURE FAVORABLE TO SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MOST FAVORABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE TROUGHING...PRESENT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL ENHANCE OR SUPPRESS CONVECTION AS THEY DO
SO. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PUERTO RICO. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL SEE DIMINISHING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AFTER TONIGHT. FOR
MOTHER`S DAY...MID LEVEL MOISTURE DISAPPEARS AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCAL CONVECTION IN THE WEST BUT
GENERALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE...AND THE COASTAL
AREAS SHOULD SEE A GOODLY AMOUNT OF SUN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS RETURN TO MAY CLIMATOLOGY THEREAFTER AS MODELS DEPICT
THE PATTERN OF MODERATE MOISTURE AND TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
TJBQ...TJMZ...TIST AND TJSJ MOST LIKELY TAF LOCATIONS TO HAVE MVFR
OR EVEN BRIEF IFR...MTN OBSC LIKELY TOO. FOR TISX VCTS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT BELOW 10KFT THEN FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST ABV 12KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 6 FEET IN EXPOSED AREAS DUE TO
ENHANCED TRADE WINDS...BUT SEAS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE
SOILS ARE SATURATED...LAND SLIDES CONTINUE AND RIVER FLOWS ON MANY
BASINS ARE RUNNING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ALMOST ALL RAINFALL WILL
RUNOFF SINCE SOILS ARE SUPER-SATURATED WHICH MEANS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH UNTIL DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PARTICULAR ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON
COMMUNITIES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...
ESPECIALLY SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN...SINCE THE HEAVIER RAIN
BANDS WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 60 60 40 40
STT 75 84 75 84 / 50 50 30 30
Quoting VR46L:


But they are still calling it Invest ...aye its been on there for the last day but as an invest ...as far as I can tell


It was 94S when it was an invest. Now (and since yesterday) it is 24S as a Tropical Depression.
513. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:


It was 94S when it was an invest. Now (and since yesterday) it is 24S as a Tropical Depression.


Thanks for the information ! But why do they not have it on the site as a tropical cyclone ... kinda confusing!
Quoting VR46L:


Hints at a Potential Early Start to the EPAC or Atlantic Hurricane Season This Year
That scenario is very scary! I really think if that pattern continues we could see (sorry Florida) a scenario of 2004 and 2008 all over again. So like I say every year please be prepared everyone especially this year. Im very concerned this year!
515. VR46L
Quoting bigwes6844:
That scenario is very scary! I really think if that pattern continues we could see (sorry Florida) a scenario of 2004 and 2008 all over again. So like I say every year please be prepared everyone especially this year. Im very concerned this year!


Lets hope not !! Alot of folk seem to have a bad feeling about this year !
It looks like Neutral ENSO will continue to dominate the equatorial Pacific for the next few months.



Quoting VR46L:


Thanks for the information ! But why do they not have it on the site as a tropical cyclone ... kinda confusing!


Do you mean like a tropical cyclone with a name? They don't name them till they are Tropical Storm strength. It's listed as what it is..a tropical depression. Invests start with 9, test invest 7, the rest of the storms get numbered in order they happen in the basin that year. This is the 24th storm in the Southern Hemisphere. There is tutorials to be read to use that site..
Just went back and found out 2004 first named system was on July 31st (Alex) and 2005 was on June 8th (Arlene). Never new that.
519. SLU
No question this is gonna be the worst season since at least 2010.

Quoting Skyepony:
RAMMB finally got 24S up. Forecast to peak at 65kts.



Judging by that image, they are using a high-definition satellite. Seems very different and much clearer.

Quoting SLU:
No question this is gonna be the worst season since at least 2010.



Seeing the anomalies off the coast of the northeast, it would be bad if one went up there again.
523. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:


Do you mean like a tropical cyclone with a name? They don't name them till they are Tropical Storm strength. It's listed as what it is..a tropical depression. Invests start with 9, test invest 7, the rest of the storms get numbered in order they happen in the basin that year. This is the 24th storm in the Southern Hemisphere. There is tutorials to be read to use that site..



Thanks for the information !!

Its just that when I looked it was showing 94S and has only changed when I refreshed the page there now ...

Quoting MississippiWx:


Judging by that image, they are using a high-definition satellite. Seems very different and much clearer.



Polar-orbiting.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Judging by that image, they are using a high-definition satellite. Seems very different and much clearer.


It's an advanced high resolution picture. Colorado State will roll those out occasionally for Atlantic Storms. I believe for Irene and Isaac they were available.
Nasty bit of business on
Central Texas radar.
Severe Weather Statement
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXC027-099-309-091945-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-130509T1945Z/
MCLENNAN TX-BELL TX-CORYELL TX-
230 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL CORYELL...NORTHERN BELL AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLENNAN COUNTIES...

AT 229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF TROY TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF BELTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN BELL COUNTY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...BRUCEVILLE-EDDY... LORENA...HEWITT AND BEVERLY HILLS AROUND 235 PM CDT... ROBINSON AROUND 240 PM CDT...

Quoting SLU:
No question this is gonna be the worst season since at least 2010.



Technically, 2012 was the worst season since 2008 for the United States, thanks to Sandy, Isaac, and Beryl.

2012:



2010...A couple of weak systems impacted the U.S.



Edit: Of course, you weren't really specifying the US either. :-) 2010 was a healthy season, but not much in the way of landfalling systems that were intense.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Technically, 2012 was the worst season since 2008 for the United States, thanks to Sandy, Isaac, and Beryl.

2012:



2010...A couple of weak systems impacted the U.S.




Wow, 2010 and 2012 look really identical in the two images you posted. ;)
And you changed it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wow, 2010 and 2012 look really identical in the two images you posted. ;)


Ha...Changed it right after you posted.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 May 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.

During April 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average SSTs confined to the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño indices were near zero throughout the month, except for the Niño1+2 region which was between -1.2oC and -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near average during April (Fig. 3), reflecting near-average subsurface temperatures at depth across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The tropical low-level easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over the western half of the Pacific basin, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed across much of the equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and the western Pacific and suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models forecast Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6), with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (-0.3oC to 0.4oC) than the statistical models (-0.7oC to 0oC). There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months. The current forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ha...Changed it right after you posted.

I edited my post right after you posted that...



Source

Hi everyone from a holiday in Germany (Ascension Day, used as well by males for Father's Day in order to drink beer outdoor in a field trip). Skypony already has linked (see #502) to news from the northeastern part of Germany where a lightning unjured more than 40 celebrating people. In my part of the country it was calm though.

Edit: Report about the incident on Spiegel English

Some science news:

Dust in the Clouds: Cirrus Clouds Form Around Mineral Dust and Metallic Particles

May 9, 2013 - At any given time, cirrus clouds -- the thin wisps of vapor that trail across the sky -- cover nearly one-third of the globe. These clouds coalesce in the upper layers of the troposphere, often more than 10 miles above the Earth's surface.

Cirrus clouds influence global climate, cooling the planet by reflecting incoming solar radiation and warming it by trapping outgoing heat. Understanding the mechanisms by which these clouds form may help scientists better predict future climate patterns.

Now an interdisciplinary team from MIT, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and elsewhere has identified the major seeds on which cirrus clouds form. The team sampled cirrus clouds using instruments aboard high-altitude research aircraft, analyzing particles collected during multiple flights over a nine-year period. They found that the majority of cloud particles freeze, or nucleate, around two types of seeds: mineral dust and metallic aerosols. ...

Cirrus clouds typically form at altitudes higher than most commercial planes fly. To sample at such heights, the team enlisted three high-altitude research aircraft from NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF): a B-57 bomber, a DC-8 passenger jet, and a G-V business jet, all of which were repurposed to carry scientific instruments. ...

Cziczo notes that while mineral dust is generally regarded as a natural substance originating from dry or barren regions of the Earth, agriculture, transportation and industrial processes also release dust into the atmosphere.

"Mineral dust is changing because of human activities," Cziczo says. "You may think of dust as a natural particle, but some percentage of it is manmade, and it really points to a human ability to change these clouds."

He adds that some global-modeling studies predict higher dust concentrations in the future due to desertification, land-use change and changing rainfall patterns due to human-induced climate effects.

Cziczo's team also identified a "menagerie of metal compounds," including lead, zinc and copper, that may point to a further human effect on cloud formation. "These things are very strange metal particles that are almost certainly from industrial activities, such as smelting and open-pit burning of electronics," Cziczo adds. Lead is also emitted in the exhaust of small planes. ...


Read the whole article on Science Daily
533. SLU
Quoting MississippiWx:


Technically, 2012 was the worst season since 2008 for the United States, thanks to Sandy, Isaac, and Beryl.

2012:



2010...A couple of weak systems impacted the U.S.



Edit: Of course, you weren't really specifying the US either. :-) 2010 was a healthy season, but not much in the way of landfalling systems that were intense.


lol yeah ..worst in terms of ACE and overall levels of activity.

The US was very lucky in 2010 but a slight change in the pattern could have made 2010 a horror. I suspect this year we will see a similar type of season activity-wise but with more westward moving storms that will threaten land.
534. SLU
Quoting SLU:


lol yeah ..worst in terms of ACE and overall levels of activity.

The US was very lucky in 2010 but a slight change in the pattern could have made 2010 a horror. I suspect this year we will see a similar type of season activity-wise but with more westward moving storms that will threaten land.


.... especially if this continues much longer

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
And even more to read:

U.S. Urban Trees Store Carbon, Provide Billions in Economic Value, Finds State-By-State Analysis

May 7, 2013 — From New York City's Central Park to Golden Gate Park in San Francisco, America's urban forests store an estimated 708 million tons of carbon, an environmental service with an estimated value of $50 billion, according to a recent U.S. Forest Service study.


Decline in Snow Cover Spells Trouble for Many Plants, Animals

May 7, 2013 — For plants and animals forced to tough out harsh winter weather, the coverlet of snow that blankets the north country is a refuge, a stable beneath-the-snow habitat that gives essential respite from biting winds and subzero temperatures.
Quoting SLU:


lol yeah ..worst in terms of ACE and overall levels of activity.

The US was very lucky in 2010 but a slight change in the pattern could have made 2010 a horror. I suspect this year we will see a similar type of season activity-wise but with more westward moving storms that will threaten land.


Agreed. The ACE has a lot of potential this year. The past 2 seasons have been fairly lame when it comes to ACE. The ACE from the past 2 season combined equals 259 and that's with a total of 38 named storms. The ACE from the 2005 season alone was 250. :-)

2010 was a healthy ACE year for sure coming in at 165 and good enough to be classified as hyperactive. I have to believe this year could be at least at 165 ACE.
Quoting SLU:


.... especially if this continues much longer

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


Yeah, that spells trouble for sure.
Since we all like to compare/contrast every season with 2005, I thought I'd bring up the SST anomaly comparison between 2005 and now. It's actually very similar with the only glaring exception being a warm neutral in ENSO regions while this year we have a cold neutral. Just something interesting to look at on a slow day. :-)

May 10, 2005



May 9, 2013

541. txjac
Has anyone seen bohonk from Buda?
I'm interested in hearing about how much rain he is getting
Levi's gonna need to expand the scale on this graph if the GOM temp keeps dropping...



MDR is doing quite well, however, though it has leveled off after its recent big spike:

I have to think that one in 62,500 year event calculation is way off. 1973-1974 gets a count up pretty close to 1,000 and that's even with a good number of F1 tornadoes likely being under-counted(not just F-0's were under-counted 40 years ago). Does anyone have a link to any research that tries to normalize tornado counts and intensities throughout the last 50 years or so?

Looking at the annual tornado maps from 1950-2011(http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/annualtornad omaps/)
I would think the current tornado drought is a rarer event than the surplus from two years ago.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Levi's gonna need to expand the scale on this graph if the GOM temp keeps dropping...



MDR is doing quite well, however, though it has leveled off after its recent big spike:



I believe the Gulf cooling has ended. You can see on the chart that it has leveled off since the steep decline. We can thank the huge upper low from last weekend and earlier this week for that drop in temps. Persistent highs in the mid-80s and lower 90s are beginning to creep into the forecast along the Gulf Coast. The water temps will follow. You'll be amazed at how quickly those negative anomalies can turn positive.
Suprised how much Dvorak from ADT can vary depending on which agency's forecast is used for interpolation.

11R Dvorak 2.6







24S Dvorak 3.0

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Levi's gonna need to expand the scale on this graph if the GOM temp keeps dropping...



MDR is doing quite well, however, though it has leveled off after its recent big spike:



As I mentioned earlier - expect SST's in the GOMEX to rebound as warmer weather returns to the southern USA. We've just had an incredible cold front for the month of May.
548. SLU
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. The ACE has a lot of potential this year. The past 2 seasons have been fairly lame when it comes to ACE. The ACE from the past 2 season combined equals 259 and that's with a total of 38 named storms. The ACE from the 2005 season alone was 250. :-)

2010 was a healthy ACE year for sure coming in at 165 and good enough to be classified as hyperactive. I have to believe this year could be at least at 165 ACE.


My sentiments are similar. Looks pretty bad at the moment ....
Quoting MississippiWx:


I believe the Gulf cooling has ended. You can see on the chart that it has leveled off since the steep decline. We can thank the huge upper low from last weekend and earlier this week for that drop in temps. Persistent highs in the mid-80s and lower 90s are beginning to creep into the forecast along the Gulf Coast. The water temps will follow. You'll be amazed at how quickly those negative anomalies can turn positive.


compare may 1 to may 9th 2013

slow warming it will pickup soon


debbie was very nasty too last yr
I have been looking at all the anomalies, the forecast trends and all the other factors that make a season very hyperactive. I have come to realization that 2013 will be a year when most residents from the lesser Antilles to the gomex, the western and northwestern Caribbean flrida and the south eastern us will be in for a rough ride.
THIS LOOKS RATHER SCARY
yeah its really coming up. i remember it was in the low 70's earlier this month now its in the the upper 70's. trust me its gonna be in the 80's by next week.
This is may 9th.
This is May 15th. Big difference! its gonna warm up big time!
full basin sst compare apr9/may9 2013


if we get another cutoff to swing down across the south that could keep sst's low across the GOM could be a saving grace for a while to kill off anything that moves into and over cooler waters
The TCHP is much warmer in 2013 than in 2012.

2012



2013

Tornado warned storm over central TX:

Quoting stoormfury:
I have been looking at all the anomalies, the forecast trends and all the other factors that make a season very hyperactive. I have come to realization that 2013 will be a year when most residents from the lesser Antilles to the gomex, the western and northwestern Caribbean flrida and the south eastern us will be in for a rough ride.
THIS LOOKS RATHER SCARY


What about the vertical instability factor?
Quoting Chicklit:


What about the vertical instability factor?
not like last year.

and wind shear
Quoting Chicklit:


What about the vertical instability factor?


If we're talking about the Caribbean, vertical instability has been running about average.


The other parts of the basin are generally average-slightly below average. Not as bad as the previous two seasons.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If we're talking about the Caribbean, vertical instability has been running about average.


The other parts of the basin are generally average-slightly below average. Not as bad as the previous two seasons.
ted is there anyway that the pattern from greenland can change?
The areas of highest TCHP concentration strike me as being similar to 2007 and 2005, and the highest since 2010.

May 8th, 2013.


May 8th, 2007.


May 8th, 2005.
Wow! Could get rocky here too

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
western Louisiana
southeast Texas
coastal waters

* effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
numerous damaging wind gusts likely with a few significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
several large hail events with a few very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
a few tornadoes possible


The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of
Tyler Texas to 30 miles south southwest of Port Arthur Texas.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.


Other watch information... continue... ww 150...

Discussion... E cntrl TX MCS with embedded bowing segments/sustained
storms expected to move mainly ESE through late eve. System will be
maintained by persistent... moist ssely 0-1 km flow beneath 35-40 kt
SW flow ahead of S cntrl TX upr impulse. System may somewhat
accelerate with ewd extent... and be augmented by additional storm
development on both its N and S ends. Potential will exist for dmgg wind... svr hail... and possibly a brief tornado or two.

Quoting bigwes6844:
ted is there anyway that the pattern from greenland can change?


I'm not sure what you mean by that, could you please elaborate?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm not sure what you mean by that, could you please elaborate?
the high pressure. is it anyway for it to move to possibly move around to prevent landfalls in the u.s.
Jet Stream Enhances Drought in West, Midwest Relief
ClimateCentral, published: May 9th, 2013 , Last Updated: May 9th, 2013

...According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, Florida saw the most drought improvement during the past week, while New Mexico saw the biggest deterioration. Modest to heavy rains fell all across the Southeast last week, and continued to eliminate patches of abnormal dryness that have lingered from the drought that afflicted the region for more than two years. In Georgia, drought came to a sudden end, as heavy rains erased a two-year drought in just two months. ...
forecast sat may 11

Quoting bigwes6844:
the high pressure. is it anyway for it to move to possibly move around to prevent landfalls in the u.s.


It's difficult to say, if the previous years that match up with it are any indication I'd say it's a 50/50 chance. It's just too difficult to determine at this point.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's difficult to say, if the previous years that match up with it are any indication I'd say it's a 50/50 chance. It's just too difficult to determine at this point.
gotcha. i just got finish looking at Levi's interp on the predictions that's y i asked
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Levi's gonna need to expand the scale on this graph if the GOM temp keeps dropping...



MDR is doing quite well, however, though it has leveled off after its recent big spike:

Quoting MississippiWx:


I believe the Gulf cooling has ended. You can see on the chart that it has leveled off since the steep decline. We can thank the huge upper low from last weekend and earlier this week for that drop in temps. Persistent highs in the mid-80s and lower 90s are beginning to creep into the forecast along the Gulf Coast. The water temps will follow. You'll be amazed at how quickly those negative anomalies can turn positive.


Yes,at any moment the GOM will start to warm especially with the trade winds called to come down the next 2 weeks..
Interesting that the GFS is picking up on a piece of a trough getting pinched off from the main flow and developing it into an area of low pressure next week. This is a week from now, next Thursday. It's probably too far north and east to be in waters warm enough for subtropical development, but just something to keep an eye on.



Of other interest is the vast area of lower than average pressure across the MDR.
Cyclone 24S has some very cold cloud tops, but the center is still located on the very eastern edge of the convection due to shear:

NAM RUN


GFS RUN


MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PDT on May 09, 2013
Scattered Clouds
76 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 53 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 9 out of 16
Pollen: 4.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 12000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

Nice here today, currently 75.8F
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Thursday 9 May 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:72.1°F
Dewpoint:56.7°F
Humidity:58%
Wind:SSE 9 mph
Humidex: 78
12z GFS Ensembles at 378 hours and 384.

378



384

Quoting MississippiWx:
12z GFS Ensembles at 378 hours and 384.

378



384

memorial day weekend
Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting that the GFS is picking up on a piece of a trough getting pinched off from the main flow and developing it into an area of low pressure next week. This is a week from now, next Thursday. It's probably too far north and east to be in waters warm enough for subtropical development, but just something to keep an eye on.



Of other interest is the vast area of lower than average pressure across the MDR.


Write another, for the people who think this will be a scary season!!!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting that the GFS is picking up on a piece of a trough getting pinched off from the main flow and developing it into an area of low pressure next week. This is a week from now, next Thursday. It's probably too far north and east to be in waters warm enough for subtropical development, but just something to keep an eye on.



Of other interest is the vast area of lower than average pressure across the MDR.
The ECMWF is already wrong with the April forecast for the month of May, below normal pressure where it has high pressure.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The TCHP is much warmer in 2013 than in 2012.

2012



2013



I worry about the THCP more than the Sea Surface temps. With data indicating that the global warming is being absorbed into the deep oceans, the SST may not capture the energy changes like the THCP might.

(Notice the weasel words.)

Cheers
Qazulight
If this were December, I would be worried!!!!

Quoting Grothar:
If this were December, I would be worried!!!!



whew..thank goodness! I almost thought it was a blob..
Quoting ncstorm:


whew..thank goodness! I almost thought it was a blob..


Just a splat moving east.
(Don't ask about his age and the fact it says Child Abduction Emergency)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
SOUTH CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013

...ENDANGERED PERSON ADVISORY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

WE HAVE JUST RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN
ENDANGERED PERSON ADVISORY LOCATED POSSIBLY IN ALLENDALE COUNTY.
THE SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IS LOOKING FOR
WILLIAM MCCRANIE...A WHITE MALE...88 YEARS OLD...HEIGHT 5 FOOT 9
INCHES...WEIGHT 210 POUNDS WITH WHITE HAIR AND BROWN EYES. THIS
PERSON WAS LAST SEEN LEAVING HIS RESIDENCE IN STONE MOUNTAIN GEORGIA
AT APPROXIMATELY 230 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN
DANGER. THIS PERSON WAS LAST SEEN WEARING BLUE JEANS...A GREY SHIRT
AND A GREEN JACKET. THIS PERSON MAY BE DRIVING A SILVER 1995 FORD
ECONOLINE VAN WITH GEORGIA TAG PD33U5.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ENDANGERED PERSON,
CALL LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IMMEDIATELY OR CALL THE DEKALB COUNTY
POLICE AT 770-724-7710.

$$
MJO is in indian ocean, and without him the air pattern is favorable in Atlantic, thing that doesn't happened much last year.
This is 92B. This looks like trouble for the Indian sub-continent in a few days.


587. Doppler22 10:07 PM GMT on May 09, 2013 0
(Don't ask about his age and the fact it says Child Abduction Emergency)



maybe elder situation
guy is on the way to somewhere
he can never remember
to where he is going
Eclipse has started
592. JRRP
Quoting Grothar:
This is 92B. This looks like trouble for the Indian sub-continent in a few days.


big rains if it stays together the coc was partialy exposed during vis rgb anim
looking good on latest still emuesat image ir

92B upgraded by JTWC to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 93.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091720Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND A STRONGER
GRADIENT FLOW (30 TO 35 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
CIRCULATION IS ALSO IDENTIFIED IN THE ANIMATED DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT IN THE
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
clouds moving in from west rain coming



This is a contour plot of total totals index with a contour interval of 2. The TT field shows instability in the atmosphere based on the lapse rate from 850 to 500 mb plus dewpoint at 850 mb. Where TTs are greater than 45, thunderstorms are possible. The higher the number, the more unstable the atmosphere is and as a result, the bold the thunderstorms could become. Values of 52 or higher indicate areas where severe thunderstorms are possible. Values <40 indicate areas of stable weather where skies are generally clear
Anyone see Aussie around? I hope he's getting a fabulous view of the solar eclipse.
think its crossing the north country he is further south

Based on the Hydrometeor Classification there is a nasty looking Hail core near Huntsville, TX.


Link


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 612 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF TRINITY...
OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIVINGSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRINITY...CORRIGAN...GROVETON...LOVELADY AND SEVEN OAKS.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone see Aussie around? I hope he's getting a fabulous view of the solar eclipse.

I am here, Just back from taking my kids to school. I can see the eclipse but it's only getting a very little bit maybe 1/4 or even less 1/8th.




Note the shadow area over the far North of Queensland.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Sadly 92B will be more powerful and destructive as that part of the world is very populated especially in Bangladesh. 24S will be a fish and not very strong.
If this pans out there will be some happier people in the valley.

***** STARTING IN 5 MINTES*****

The Barometer Bob Show for May 9, 2013.
Guests will be:

Glenn Sebold from the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists. We will talk about "My Diabetes Emergency Plan"! Do you or someone you know have diabetes? Well you can develop an emergency plan in case of a disaster!

Erin Mullen from rxresponse.org They help people find pharmacies after a disaster, yet they do even more!

Paul Timmons from Portlight.Org. Paul has been on the show a number of times discussing how Portlight helps the handicapped and disabled after a disaster.


Join us in Storm Chat. Just sign-in with your WU Handle

The Barometer Bob Show airs live every Thursday night at 8PM/ET.

I'm in Storm Chat right now.
609. JLPR2
Anyone seen the ridiculously long range CFS?



Cape Verde storm in mid June.
This blog would implode. XD
A little hard to see, but there were 5, I repeat, FIVE waterspouts ongoing at the same time in this picture that was taken this morning off the coast of the Atlantis Resort in Nassau, The Bahamas.

Question: has anybody using Google Chrome been getting this huge blank space at the bottom of certain webpages? If so, did you fix it? How? It's really bothering me, lol.
Quoting bappit:
If this pans out there will be some happier people in the valley.



Your image looks 3D??
614. wxmod
Cirrus clouds form around mineral dust and metallic particles, study finds
http://phys.org/news/2013-05-cirrus-clouds-minera l-metallic-particles.html

"the majority of (cirrus) cloud particles freeze, or nucleate, around two types of seeds: mineral dust and metallic aerosols."

"Cziczo's team also identified a "menagerie of metal compounds," including lead, zinc and copper, that may point to a further human effect on cloud formation. "These things are very strange metal particles that are almost certainly from industrial activities, such as smelting and open-pit burning of electronics," Cziczo adds. Lead is also emitted in the exhaust of small planes."

"the team observed very little evidence of biological particles, such as bacteria or fungi, or black carbon"

615. SLU
Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone seen the ridiculously long range CFS?



Cape Verde storm in mid June.
This blog would implode. XD


Yeah it's been showing this for several runs now. This run is the strongest so far reaching sub-1004mb near the islands.
Quoting JLPR2:
Anyone seen the ridiculously long range CFS?



Cape Verde storm in mid June.
This blog would implode. XD

I find that very hard to believe [for obvious reasons], but that's not the first time the model has shown the cyclone in that position during the same time frame. If by some miracle the system did pan out, it would be very strong indicator of an exceptionally active season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Question: has anybody using Google Chrome been getting this huge blank space at the bottom of certain webpages? If so, did you fix it? How? It's really bothering me, lol.


Nope, never had that problem.
Just in case you were wondering, the CFS takes the storm from that position across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, over Bermuda, and into Newfoundland.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just in case you were wondering, the CFS takes the storm from that position across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, over Bermuda, and into Newfoundland.
Where do you guys get the CFS run like that?
620. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I find that very hard to believe [for obvious reasons], but that's not the first time the model has shown the cyclone in that position during the same time frame. If by some miracle the system did pan out, it would be very strong indicator of an exceptionally active season.


Me too, anything after 192hrs is hard to believe and that is 948hrs away.

Still it is interesting to see something like that in the model, seems to indicate a favorable CAtl, but I'm leaning towards that being a strong tropical wave if it materializes.
621. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
Where do you guys get the CFS run like that?


Link

Enjoy.
Big hail storm producing at least tennis ball size hail ESE of San Angelo, Texas. It's got double hail spikes!
Quoting Ameister12:
Big hail storm producing at least tennis ball size hail ESE of San Angelo, Texas. It's got double hail spikes!


Yeah, hail spikes are always a bad sign. Very damaging hail likely with that storm.
The updated ECMWF forecast does not come out until May 15; however, the NMME May seasonal update came out today. Doesn't show anything that's not already been forecast...an active Cape Verde season:

Note the dry anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. La Nina-ish pattern.



SST forecast has above-average temperatures in the MDR, as well as glaring pools of much above-average temperatures from 180W to 125W and in/around Newfoundland. These are likely a result of high pressure near/overheard.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just in case you were wondering, the CFS takes the storm from that position across the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, over Bermuda, and into Newfoundland.


The storm recurve in the run,we don't expect that pattern this year !!!But may change
92B is becoming monstrous. I hope this isn't the one forecast to hit India. That would be some serious rain.



Quoting Grothar:
92B is becoming monstrous. I hope this isn't the one forecast to hit India. That would be some serious rain.





Sadly it is but hopefully it turns into a fish like 24S.
No imaginary early season storm is ever going to best my Big Bertha...



Quoting Grothar:
92B is becoming monstrous. I hope this isn't the one forecast to hit India. That would be some serious rain.





10,000 souls is the opening bid
Fantastic image of the Annular Solar Eclipse's "Ring of Fire" from Geoff Sims in western Australia.
sun is rising

Quoting stormchaser19:
Fantastic image of the Annular Solar Eclipse's "Ring of Fire" from Geoff Sims in western Australia.

Western Australia never got the Eclipse. Do you have a link to this photo?
I've been here for 8 years and it's the same story every year as THIS year is always going to be doom. ACE, MJO, NAO, SST, A/B high, patterns, vorticity, el nino, el schmino, whatever....it's hurricane season. It doesn't matter if it's just 1 coming in the right(wrong) direction...if just 1 comes your way it's hyperactive. Everyone who's an enthusiast in Ohio can watch and get enthused. Everyone that's on the coast should be prepared.
CMC at 204 hours (May 18) shows a Tropical Storm Alvin (possibly weak hurricane) and either a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Barbara. Things are about to heat up!



Even the GMS is picking up on a possible TD One-E or TS Alvin. Not yet the other system.

water vapour still image nine two B

Link

Western Australia never got the Eclipse. Do you have a link to this photo?

Quoting stormchaser19:


Quoting AussieStorm:

Western Australia never got the Eclipse. Do you have a link to this photo?


Link
Looks like an active sunspot hiding off the east limb of the Sun. It produced a near M class flare a couple hours ago and now a strong M3.9 flare:



just shy of the sw coast of ya aus here is the path in the image

Great Outflow by the north storm!!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The updated ECMWF forecast does not come out until May 15; however, the NMME May seasonal update came out today. Doesn't show anything that's not already been forecast...an active Cape Verde season:

Note the dry anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. La Nina-ish pattern.



SST forecast has above-average temperatures in the MDR, as well as glaring pools of much above-average temperatures from 180W to 125W and in/around Newfoundland. These are likely a result of high pressure near/overheard.



Do you have the link to those graphics?
Quoting stormchaser19:


Link

I saw that photo via twitter earlier. As you can see from the Satellite image.



If that photo did come from W.A it must of been from Far NE W.A
WU and Portlight's Paul Timmons is on the Barometer Bob show right now talking about Portlight and upcoming events.

Link

Sign in with your WU handle. I'm there.
2 tornado warned storms heading towards my direction and San Antonio. Didn't see this coming
Quoting AussieStorm:

I saw that photo via twitter earlier. As you can see from the Satellite image.



If that photo did come from W.A it must of been from Far NE W.A


Ok. I also saw the photo by a friend retweet...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
819 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
GILLESPIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 815 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOSS...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING...HILLTOP AND
TIVYDALE.











BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
816 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KERR COUNTY...
NORTH CENTRAL REAL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

* AT 814 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER NORTHEASTERN
EDWARDS COUNTY...OR ABOUT 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKSPRINGS...
MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTIES.
Quoting Thrawst:
A little hard to see, but there were 5, I repeat, FIVE waterspouts ongoing at the same time in this picture that was taken this morning off the coast of the Atlantis Resort in Nassau, The Bahamas.


Is this the ocean club?
Today's SST anomaly image from NOAA/NESDIS:

Chased a strong storm near DC today, snapped a couple pics. Here are the best ones I got, hopefully get a better chance on Saturday.









Quoting stormchaser19:


Ok. I also saw the photo by a friend retweet...

I found the original Photo.



Beyond the Skies, Beneath the Seas
Ring of Fire

Perfect annular eclipse, from a ridge somewhere west of Plutonic Gold Mine, near the south/sunrise limit, approx 200 km from Newman.

The horizon was perfectly clear, what an amazing sight seeing the squished Sun in annular eclipse. Full sequence of photos to follow - have to lug 40 kg of gear down a mountain, walk it 1 km to my car, and drive back to pick up remotely deployed cameras elsewhere in the eclipse path.

Stay tuned!

Canon 5D Mark III, 500 mm, 1/1000 s @ f/8, ISO 100


He got it just after sunrise or when the earth turned more. lol.
Definitely wouldn't want to be anywhere near this storm...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXC171-299-100215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-130510T0215Z/
GILLESPIE TX-LLANO TX-
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LLANO AND NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO...AS WELL AS SOFTBALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOSS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
SAME THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 915 PM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING...PRAIRIE
MOUNTAIN...HILLTOP...ENCHANTED ROCK STATION AND CRABAPPLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO. IF YOU ARE IN ITS
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9867 3034 9878 3019 9902 3050 9931
3051 9930 3050 9898 3062 9897 3063 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 311DEG 25KT 3047 9909

$$
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Definitely wouldn't want to be anywhere near this storm...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXC171-299-100215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-130510T0215Z/
GILLESPIE TX-LLANO TX-
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LLANO AND NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO...AS WELL AS SOFTBALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOSS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
SAME THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 915 PM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING...PRAIRIE
MOUNTAIN...HILLTOP...ENCHANTED ROCK STATION AND CRABAPPLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO. IF YOU ARE IN ITS
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9867 3034 9878 3019 9902 3050 9931
3051 9930 3050 9898 3062 9897 3063 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 311DEG 25KT 3047 9909

$$


I bet this storm has incredible structure with it!!!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Definitely wouldn't want to be anywhere near this storm...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXC171-299-100215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-130510T0215Z/
GILLESPIE TX-LLANO TX-
830 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LLANO AND NORTHWESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO...AS WELL AS SOFTBALL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR DOSS...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF MASON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
SAME THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 915 PM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE CHERRY SPRING...PRAIRIE
MOUNTAIN...HILLTOP...ENCHANTED ROCK STATION AND CRABAPPLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AS WELL AS A TORNADO. IF YOU ARE IN ITS
PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9867 3034 9878 3019 9902 3050 9931
3051 9930 3050 9898 3062 9897 3063 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 311DEG 25KT 3047 9909

$$


With all this ongoing incredibly severe weather and all the instability they got in that area right now, I'm a bit surprised the SPC only issued a 'Slight Risk' of severe weather.
Quoting Thrawst:


I bet this storm has incredible structure with it!!!


SOFTBALL sized hail... - I'd hate to be around that.
Quoting PRweathercenter:


Link
Is so rare to get a cat 5 in our area and stay a cat 5 for more than a day.
These two low pressure systems in the Indian Ocean look fairly close. Can you get Fujiwara effects across the equator or could you not classify it as Fujiwara but they still interact by pulling one another west ward or keeping each other closer to the equator.
Quoting PRweathercenter:


Link


'99 San Ciriaco killes over 3200 people and left most of the trees on the ground. Over 20" of rain and major hurricane winds hit the island...

not wanting to happen again for you though... that one occurred 114 years ago
it was a cat 4 btw... what difference would a cat 5 do??
Quoting Gearsts:
Is so rare to get a cat 5 in our area and stay a cat 5 for more than a day.

Hurricane David (1979) was close of PR, but he preferred us in DR
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I've been here for 8 years and it's the same story every year as THIS year is always going to be doom. ACE, MJO, NAO, SST, A/B high, patterns, vorticity, el nino, el schmino, whatever....it's hurricane season. It doesn't matter if it's just 1 coming in the right(wrong) direction...if just 1 comes your way it's hyperactive. Everyone who's an enthusiast in Ohio can watch and get enthused. Everyone that's on the coast should be prepared.


No offense Cosmic, but these kind of comments irk me a little bit. They are largely untrue. Many forecasters correctly predicted the downturns in activity in 2009 and 2012 (though Sandy overshadows that). The rest of the last 5 years have all been well above normal seasons, predicted by many, largely because of the overwhelmingly favorable pattern the Atlantic has been in the majority of the last 10 years.

To say that forecasters proclaim doom and gloom every year is simply a result of the fact that people only remember the years when doom and gloom were predicted, because the hype is memorable. They don't remember the ones where a quieter year was forecasted. It's a little unfair, to be honest.
1928 Okeechobee hit Isla del Encanto as a cat 5... shivering...
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20122013
4:00 AM RET May 10 2013
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11 (998 hPa) located at 8.1S 86.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northwestern quadrant with locally gale force winds up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 08.7S 86.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 09.2S 87.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 10.0S 87.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 10.8S 85.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
During the last 12 hours, the system has maintained a sustained deep convection activity close to the center (very cold clouds tops on infrared imagery) despite rather strong easterly shear. Due to the shear, the center is close to the eastern edge of the main convective mass. Latest Dvorak estimates suggest that the intensity remains the same ... although SCATT data from yesterday suggest ... at least ... that gale force winds occurs locally in the northern semi-circle.

The system is currently moving on a southeastwards to south southeastwards motion over the southwestern periphery of a near eqautorial ridge. North of the upper level ridge, the easterly shear is strong but should gradually relax today as the system moves closer to the ridge axis.

Tomorrow , the system is expected to track under the upper level ridge axis aloft and wind shear should then clearly relax as the low level inflow remains efficient over the both sides (equatorial westerly burst and subtropical belt existing east of 70E) . This good environmental conditions should persist until Monday and system should then deepen significantly up to severe tropical storm stage.

At the mid levels, a ridge is building up Sunday and a shortwave trough should pass south of the system. Within this pattern, a slow down of the track is expected with a slow southwards drift. Monday, the trough is bypassing the system and a ridge should build up from the southwest allowing a westwards turn at a faster motion.

Tuesday and beyond, northeasterly then northerly upper level winds are expected to strengthen aloft and system should therefore weaken undergoing this strengthening vertical wind shear.

There is significant uncertainty around this forecast (cf. Spread in latest ECMWF ensemble forecast). An alternative scenario suggest by some models and some members of the ensemble forecast is that the system may not be strong as forecast and could track southeastwards or even east southeastwards a bit longer under the steering influence of the near equatorial low level westerlies. On this track the system could leave our area of responsibility within the next 36-48 hours; the current forecast remains in the general philosophy of the previous one (significantly slower however) and is close to the ECMWF track ... that is rather consistent with this scenario for a while now.
Watch out Fredericksburg! This storm is extremely dangerous!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


For sure a TCFA will be issued in the next 12 hours.
Quoting MississippiWx:
12z GFS Ensembles at 378 hours and 384.

378



384

When you got a closed isobar 16 days out on a 20 member ensemble you know the model is screaming the pattern is ripe for development. That's very impressive.
Quoting Gearsts:
Is so rare to get a cat 5 in our area and stay a cat 5 for more than a day.
its very rare!!
It's been extended


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
909 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* AT 906 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
FREDERICKSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROCKY HILL...CAIN CITY...
BLUMENTHAL...LUCKENBACH AND STONEWALL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today's SST anomaly image from NOAA/NESDIS:



Is this the black image you have been talking about on Google Chrome????
Guess This Cyclone.... or is it a Hurricane or a Typhoon?

Quoting PRweathercenter:
its very rare!!


The only cat 5 to make landfall in PR was San Felipe on September 13 1928.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Guess This Cyclone.... or is it a Hurricane or a Typhoon?



I don't know

^ Yasi
Quoting Levi32:


No offense Cosmic, but these kind of comments irk me a little bit. They are largely untrue. Many forecasters correctly predicted the downturns in activity in 2009 and 2012 (though Sandy overshadows that). The rest of the last 5 years have all been well above normal seasons, predicted by many, largely because of the overwhelmingly favorable pattern the Atlantic has been in the majority of the last 10 years.

To say that forecasters proclaim doom and gloom every year is simply a result of the fact that people only remember the years when doom and gloom were predicted, because the hype is memorable. They don't remember the ones where a quieter year was forecasted. It's a little unfair, to be honest.


I think he's just trying to take the doom predictions with a grain of salt. You know the blog thrives on that kind of stuff.
Well,I said 12 hours to have a TCFA for 92B but it has been organizing very fast that we now have the TCFA.

WTIO21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.//
NNNN

WTIO21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 93.7E TO 9.6N 89.7E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 092330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
93.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 93.2E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF
BANDA ACEH, SUMATRA. ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 092305Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS EVIDENT IN THE ENHANCED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND THE EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110200Z.//
NNNN

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I don't know

^ Yasi

Of course it's Yasi... lol

Amazingly she looked like this 4 days before landfall.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Guess This Cyclone.... or is it a Hurricane or a Typhoon?



Right click, click "Copy image URL," paste URL into new tab, highlight "Cyclone_Yasi_2_February_2011_approaching_Queensland," and there's the answer.
TPIO10 PGTW 100032

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92B (W OF SUMATRA)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 5.3N

D. 93.2E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. PT YIELDS A 2.0 DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2212Z 5.0N 93.2E TRMM


QUAST
Quoting Levi32:


No offense Cosmic, but these kind of comments irk me a little bit. They are largely untrue. Many forecasters correctly predicted the downturns in activity in 2009 and 2012 (though Sandy overshadows that). The rest of the last 5 years have all been well above normal seasons, predicted by many, largely because of the overwhelmingly favorable pattern the Atlantic has been in the majority of the last 10 years.

To say that forecasters proclaim doom and gloom every year is simply a result of the fact that people only remember the years when doom and gloom were predicted, because the hype is memorable. They don't remember the ones where a quieter year was forecasted. It's a little unfair, to be honest.
I'm sorry Levi if my comment irked you. No offense was meant to anyone. And perhaps my comment was unfair, I'll agree. Maybe it's just a case of selective memory on my part and I might be over-weighing the projected paths that were land-ho instead of out to sea.
.
I have to add that I have the deepest respect for you Levi and it's been a pleasure to see you grow in your knowledge and forecasting. I won't say you're the best we have because that might bother others, but I personally think you're most likely amongst us to one day be an NHC forecaster and I look forward to the day I see a discussion signed Levi. ....and hopefully it will say "out to sea":)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Right click, click "Copy image URL," paste URL into new tab, highlight "Cyclone_Yasi_2_February_2011_approaching_Queensland," and there's the answer.

LOL your to good.

Yasi at the Soloman Islands and Anthony has already hit Townsville.



Quoting AussieStorm:
Guess This Cyclone.... or is it a Hurricane or a Typhoon?

I can only tell it's Yasi because it says "Yasi" in the url lol.

Otherwise I'm really bad at recognizing storms from satellite images or tracks. Some people are really good at that stuff though. Guess I'm not much of a historian.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
TPIO10 PGTW 100032

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92B (W OF SUMATRA)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 5.3N

D. 93.2E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. PT YIELDS A 2.0 DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/2212Z 5.0N 93.2E TRMM


QUAST



Not much.





TD 24 is getting sheared big time by the Anti-cyclone above soon to be TD in the north Indian.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I can only tell it's Yasi because it says "Yasi" in the url lol.

Otherwise I'm really bad at recognizing storms from satellite images or tracks. Some people are really good at that stuff though. Guess I'm not much of a historian.

It's ok,,, not many people remember TC Anthony hit Queensland a few days before Yasi.
The JTWC has taken the weakening flag off TD 24 but La Union still has it on????

Link
Wish I would have saved the last couple MJO forecasts. Model disagreements are always great to document because the highlights biases so well. Latet GFS Ens looking maybe slightly more in line with the ECMWF (less amplified) but still significant disagreement between ECMWF and GEFS on MJO progression.

GFS Ens




ECMWF Ens

Quoting TomTaylor:
Wish I would have saved the last couple MJO forecasts. Model disagreements are always great to document because the highlights biases so well. Latet GFS Ens looking maybe slightly more in line with the ECMWF (less amplified) but still significant disagreement between ECMWF and GEFS on MJO progression.

GFS Ens




ECMWF Ens


How about this,is in good agreement with everybody Lol!
Quoting Civicane49:


Wow,92B is almost triple size more larger than 24S.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The only cat 5 to make landfall in PR was San Felipe on September 13 1928.

That one covered a lot of real estate.


Google and Time magazine have stitched together satellite images collected by NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey, showcasing developments in our planet's landscape via time-lapse.

By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

Satellite imagery can serve as a time machine, revealing dramatic change in just a few seconds - but can you imagine documenting almost three decades' worth of all that change, across most of our planet's land mass? A team of imaging experts, computer scientists and journalists did. Now they've unveiled the result: a global database of zoomable, animated satellite views known as Timelapse.

"We believe this is the most comprehensive picture of our changing planet ever made available to the public," Rebecca Moore, engineering manager for Google Earth Engine and Earth outreach, said Thursday in Google's blog announcement of the Timelapse project.

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/09/181 50228-time-lapse-map-chronicles-decades-of-global- change-as-seen-from-space?lite
Levi, if you're out there. Documentation of MJO forecasts would be cool. Not sure how you would do it but something like the image below stuck on an MJO octant plot for the different model ensembles would be really cool. The image below was stolen from Maue and shows the previous AO forecasts vs reality, helps give a sense of the bias and consistency with the model forecasts. His image is a bit messy but it's a cool concept nonetheless.




I have many ideas like this but I'll probably never get around to learning all the coding on my own. If I had Maue's coding abilities though, man. I think I'd be coding all day. So many ideas. This concept above could also be applied to ensemble low tracks with TCs...(i.e. ensemble spaghetti trend over time).
Quoting TomTaylor:
Levi, if you're out there. Documentation of MJO forecasts would be cool. Not sure how you would do it but something like the image below stuck on an MJO octant plot for the different model ensembles would be really cool. The image below was stolen from Maue and shows the previous AO forecasts vs reality, helps give a sense of the bias and consistency with the model forecasts. His image is a bit messy but it's a cool concept nonetheless.




I have many ideas like this but I'll probably never get around to learning all the coding on my own. If I had Maue's coding abilities though, man. I think I'd be coding all day. So many ideas. This concept above could also be applied to ensemble low tracks with TCs...(i.e. ensemble spaghetti trend over time).


Oh yeah....once you learn code you realize all the possibilities. It gets me super excited when I think of all the things I could plot. I would release new stuff every day if I could, but school exists. I currently have about 20 unique product ideas waiting to be investigated and coded if they are feasible, and even more spin-offs of those in my mind. I just lack time to update as fast as I'd like.

I will say the MJO will be a tough one to get rolling. In order to get an MJO value, one has to project the real-time velocity potential and wind fields onto the leading MJO empirical orthogonal function (EOF) for the last ~30 years of reanalysis data. Getting that stuff working might take me a long time, to be honest. Dr. Maue might beat me to it since he has more time.
Tropical depresion 2 even though not a ts or hurricane develop on June 23 near Africa.So its not impossible to get even a small td to develop in those days near Africa unlikely but not impossible.
The GFS is really excited about this MJO pulse.

Quoting allancalderini:
Tropical depresion 2 even though not a ts or hurricane develop on June 23 near Africa.So its not impossible to get even a small td to develop in those days near Africa unlikely but not impossible.


how about over Africa??? lol
I don't like the caption for next Thursay - "Storms Return". We are supposed to have a free day that day, probably the only thing that my school has done right. I want that free day really badly, I will have just finished off the last of 3 AP tests and will be really looking forward to it.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how about over Africa??? lol


Why did Christine get classification while over Africa?

Quoting Astrometeor:
I will have just finished off the last of 3 AP tests and will be really looking forward to it.


Speaking of AP tests, I have a AP Language test tomorrow starting at 8:00 and lasting till noon. Good night everyone, I need to get something called "sleep". Interesting idea, it is.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how about over Africa??? lol
Yeah lol but I mean in june.
Can the mjo have any other effect in the mdr like in the epac where it can warm the waters?
More rain in the forecast for PR in the next couple of days. This is a typical May wet pattern going on.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST THU MAY 9 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS LEAVING VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER SURGE OF TRADE WIND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO UPPER TROUGH WEST AND NORTH OF REGION
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MID
TO UPPER TROUGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH BASE OF TROUGH REACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS BY SUNDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...
ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER PATTERN BY SUNDAY...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE INITIAL FORECAST DISCUSSION. NO CHANGES
MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Why did Christine get classification while over Africa?



Speaking of AP tests, I have a AP Language test tomorrow starting at 8:00 and lasting till noon. Good night everyone, I need to get something called "sleep". Interesting idea, it is.


it could not wait to become Christine any longer, didn't care where it was at...
713. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is really excited about this MJO pulse.



I think it's also excited about the monsoonal gyre as well. Usually see one in the model somewhere around the beginning of the season every year.


700mb RH
This was the 5:42 p.m. tornado from 2-3 miles north of Owaneco from John Griffiths FB page.

Video
Quoting beell:


I think it's also excited about the monsoonal gyre as well. Usually see one in the model somewhere around the beginning of the season every year.


700mb RH


Yup, every year. GFS is rushing the MJO over the pond as well. Once it shows up at 240hr on the ensemble mean it will mean more. Worth watching in extreme long-range as this MJO pulse is likely going to come over eventually.
There was a person that came into the Hurricane Hollow Storm Chat during the Show and was freaking out about the CFS model showing a "system" near the Caribbean in 948hrs.... LOL

Ok, Who posted that image, you freaked them out.
718. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, every year. GFS is rushing the MJO over the pond as well. Once it shows up at 240hr on the ensemble mean it will mean more. Worth watching in extreme long-range as this MJO pulse is likely going to come over eventually.


Trying to remember if we ever got at least an early season INVEST out of similar situations. This modeled circulation is moving on down the time line. What may be more notable is the big honkin' ridge over the Gulf.
Is that the first tropical wave of the season depicted by the GFS in 204 hours, off the coast of Africa?

Quoting Civicane49:


That is one huge invest. I'm particularly worried about this one - I'm going to have family in that part of India on ministry business when this beast will be hitting the coast according the models. Watching with a close eye.
721. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that the first tropical wave of the season depicted by the GFS in 204 hours, off the coast of Africa?



Could be, TA. GFS showed a wave moving off the coast of Africa on the runs from May 6th at 300hrs and has more or less stayed with it. The dates still match.

A capture from a previous post:


05/06 06Z GFS 700mb at 300hrs
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That is one huge invest. I'm particularly worried about this one - I'm going to have family in that part of India on ministry business when this beast will be hitting the coast according the models. Watching with a close eye.


Hope your family will stay safe. This large invest also has very unusually deep convection.

725. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that the first tropical wave of the season depicted by the GFS in 204 hours, off the coast of Africa?


may be
Dry season is starting here in Hawaii. The extreme drought survives the whole wet season for the fifth consecutive time. Currently, there is no drought for the western islands while Maui County and the Big Island continues to have drought.



warm 86F waters for 92B.
well i've updated my tap account and its active now till nov 10 2013

1st image for the season
enhance ir hemisphere anmin image

nine two B is at the top of image

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
enhance ir hemisphere anmin image

nine two B is at the top of image



that is an interesting view of the world map.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


that is an interesting view of the world map.
new image every 3 hrs next update 3 am

i think its 9 images to every 24 hrs
Northern tropical disturbance 92B hitting Burma by 120 hours in 0z GFS run. Southern cyclone 24S is forecast to be no threat to land.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST May 10 2013
=================================

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-­tropospheric levels persists. Ocean­ atmospheric conditions suggests that the system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Quoting Civicane49:
Northern tropical disturbance 92B hitting Burma by 120 hours in 0z GFS run. Southern cyclone 24S is forecast to be no threat to land.



Cocos (Keeling) Island (12s 96E) will be close if track is indecisive.

0z CMC at 72 hours:

CMC continues to call for the first named storm in the eastern Pacific by middle to late next week:

Quoting Levi32:


Oh yeah....once you learn code you realize all the possibilities. It gets me super excited when I think of all the things I could plot. I would release new stuff every day if I could, but school exists. I currently have about 20 unique product ideas waiting to be investigated and coded if they are feasible, and even more spin-offs of those in my mind. I just lack time to update as fast as I'd like.

I will say the MJO will be a tough one to get rolling. In order to get an MJO value, one has to project the real-time velocity potential and wind fields onto the leading MJO empirical orthogonal function (EOF) for the last ~30 years of reanalysis data. Getting that stuff working might take me a long time, to be honest. Dr. Maue might beat me to it since he has more time.
Hm, yea that sounds like a lot of computing power. Too bad you can't just take the values NCEP CLIVAR produces and then feed that directly into your plots.

Anyway, can't wait to see your other ideas. Your site has quickly become my favorite site for free model output on the web. Thanks for putting it all together for us.
It's a steady flame out there ...



Quoting Civicane49:
CMC continues to call for the first named storm in the eastern Pacific by middle to late next week:

right on time with the start of the 2013 Hurricane Season east bpacfic start date is wed next week
747. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:


Appears that the GFS is predicting a potential tropical storm in the western Caribbean by the final week of May when the MJO will arrive in that area.
Quoting Civicane49:


Appears that the GFS is predicting a potential tropical storm in the western Caribbean by the final week of May when the MJO will arrive in that area.

Well, shear better dive right down in the next 20 days cause right now it's very hostile.
Current Shear.




North Indian Ocean Invest...

Both systems are organizing nicely.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, shear better dive right down in the next 20 days cause right now it's very hostile.
Current Shear.




North Indian Ocean Invest...

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JAMALA (11-20122013)
10:00 AM RET May 10 2013
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jamala (995 hPa) located at 8.2S 86.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
55 NM radius from the center in the southeastern quadrant, extending up to 60 NM in the western semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 08.9S 86.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 09.8S 86.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 10.4S 85.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 10.6S 84.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
==========================
The low level center has been relocated more west thanks to the first visible satellite pictures. General pattern of the system has improved for the last 12 hours. Low level circulation center is closer to the deep convection that is present west due to persistent wind shear. System has been named Jamala at 0500z by Mauritius Meteorological Services.

The system is moving slowly on a southward motion over the south-western periphery of a near equatorial ridge. North of the upper level ridge, the easterly shear is strong but should gradually relax today as the system moves closer to the ridge axis.

Tomorrow, the system is expected to track under the upper level ridge axis aloft and then wind shear should clearly decrease as the low level inflow remains efficient over the both sides (equatorial westerly burst and subtropical belt existing east of 70E). This good environmental conditions should persist until Monday and then system may deepen significantly up to severe tropical storm stage.

Within the mid levels, a ridge builds up Sunday and a shortwave trough should pass south of the system. With this pattern, a slow down of the track is expected with a slow southwards then south westward drift. Monday, the trough bypasses the system and a ridge should build up from the southwest allowing a westward turn with a faster motion.

Tuesday and beyond, north-easterly then northerly upper level winds are expected to strengthen aloft and system should therefore weaken undergoing this strengthening vertical wind shear.

An alternative scenario suggested by some models and some members of the ensemble forecast is that the system may be less intense and could track southeastward or even east southeastward a bit longer under the steering influence of the near equatorial low level westerlies. Therefore, probability of this scenario is lower in view of the last run. The current forecast remains in the general philosophy of ECMWF (more west than previous forecast) and American model forecast tracks that are consistent for a while now.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 10 2013
==================================

The low pressure are has concentrated into a well marked low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood.

This system would concentrate into a depression over the same area during the next 24 hours.
I was trying to sleep at night and get my hours straight. It was not to be. Lol. It is rocking out there and coming down like crazy! I hope the severe is through here. But it still building. I pity my husband's boat in the morning if this hail has damaged my daughter's car because the boat is under the carport. lol


05/10/2013 1245 am

Orange, Orange County.

Hail m1.00 inch, reported by public.


Report of quarter-sized hail in Orange





05/10/2013 1245 am

2 miles SSW of Mauriceville, Orange County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by NWS employee.


Pea-sized hail reported near Mauriceville


05/10/2013 1201 am

Orange, Orange County.

Hail e0.88 inch, reported by public.


Public report of nickel-sized hail in town.
Here

A Flood Advisory has been issued until 4:45am for Southeast Texas. We are seeing rain rates up to 2in. an hour. Turn around don't drown. Stay off water covered roadways.

Houston

Flash Flood Warning for Harris County until 5:15am Friday.

Looks like a rough one over Louisiana. Hope the worst was offshore.


YIPE! My smart phone just went crazy! I didn't know it gave me weather warnings. (It is still smarter than I)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
328 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 324 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE REGION SINCE LAST EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME REGION THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FOUR INCHES
POSSIBLE.
..ESPECIALLY OVER BEAUMONT...ORANGE...AND PORT ARTHUR.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH
Issue Date: 1008 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013
Expiration: 100 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...SOILS ARE SATURATED AND AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH.
THESE CONDITIONS MAKE THE AREA MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING THAN
NORMAL AS ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF INTO AREA
STREAMS...RIVERS...AND CANALS.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>065-071-072-MSZ068 >071-077-080>082-
101200-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.A.0008.130510T1200Z-130512T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...
CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CRO SBY...MCCOMB...
TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...
GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...
GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
1008 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issue Date: 303 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
Expiration: 1000 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-007-033-037-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-07 7-087-089-091-
093-095-099-101-103-105-109-117-121-125-101500-
/O.CON.KWNS.SV.A.0154.000000T0000Z-130510T1500Z/



LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. MARTIN
ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA
New SARS epidemic?

Off topic, but this is an interesting news story. A person who visited Dubai is in intensive care in France with a novel coronavirus infection. Coronaviruses are the family to which the common cold virus belongs, and it was a coronavirus which caused the SARS epidemic in 2003. It spread to 37 countries, causing 8,273 known infections and 775 deaths, a 9.6% fatality rate. That's a higher fatality rate than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic.

The 'interesting' part is that another THREE people in the French hospital have become infected - a doctor, nurse and another patient. This suggests that it is very infectious.

The odd part is, if it were as infectious as the French case would indicate, you'd expect it to be rampant in the eastern Arabian peninsula. I did some googling, and found this on an Arab website:

Conflicting reports are emerging from Al-Ahsa about the number of coronavirus infections in the region.
The Al-Ahsa health department has said that there is only one confirmed case. However, the brother of a person infected with the virus said yesterday that in the hospital there are at least four persons in isolated rooms who are suspected of being infected.

One of the physicians treating infected patients refused to reveal the number of confirmed cases. %u201CWe are not allowed to reveal any details in this regard.%u201D Ibrahim Al-Higgi, spokesman for Al-Ahsa department of health, would not answer any questions because only the ministry is authorized to provide public statements.

A 19-year-old woman was discharged from King Fahd hospital in Hofuf after it was confirmed that she was not infected with the virus.But two of her brothers were infected and the virus claimed the life of her father. One of her brothers, 28, left the hospital after being cured. Her other brother, 31, is still in the intensive care unit at King Fahd hospital.


Despite the fact that it emerged in Arabia last summer, Saudi authorities have only recently requested outside help. SARS experts from Toronto are now in Saudi.

Link
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move thru PR and adjacent islands today. Mothers day looks like it will be with good weather.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST FRI MAY 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN BAHAMAS TO
HAITI APPROACHING PR WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. SHALLOWER CONVECTION CONTINUES NORTH OF PR AND EXTENDS
OVER EASTERN PR TO USVI. PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS HIGH VALUE
AXIS NORTH OF PR TO LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROGRESSING WESTWARD.

GFS SUGGESTS 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TODAY WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF PR AND A NON-PLAYER FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER IT ALSO PLACES
SIGNIFICANT 1000-700 MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND 250 MB DIVERGENCE
ON THE NOSE OF A JET CORE MAX OVER PR BY 12Z/SAT. THIS RESULTS IN
0.87 INCH 6-HOUR QPF BULLSEYE JUST NORTH OF CULEBRA/ST.
THOMAS...AND WRF SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE THIS BEARS WATCHING IF DEEP CONVECTION COULD BE
MAINTAINED EARLY SAT MORNING. USVI COULD HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
LATE TONIGHT OVER USVI IF IT OCCURRED. HAVING DOUBTS THAT THIS
WILL BE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN THOUGH.

THIS TROUGH WILL OTHERWISE SWEEP OUT THE 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER FOR THE NEXT WEEK. LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND MORE TYPICAL
WIND PATTERNS RESULT IN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BEGINNING
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JSJ/IST/ISX IN PASSING
SHOWERS. SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI...TSRA LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER 10/16Z. ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SWELL TRAINS TO CONTINUE FROM THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...MAINLY DIRECTED WELL NORTH OF LOCAL WATERS.
FOR OUR AREA THEY ARE BROKEN UP A BIT BY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
EXPECTED NO MORE THAN 6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 74 / 50 30 30 40
STT 85 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 40
Good Morning Folks!......................................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNSET. ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD
THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
LINGERING SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROL
ON LATEST SURF CONDITIONS AND ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR FROM THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION AROUND SUNSET WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AROUND 10 MPH AND MAY MOVE OFFSHORE...NORTH OF THE CAPE
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY CROSSES CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING.
Here are the twins:

Tropical Cyclone Jamala:

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 9.2S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.2S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.5S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.0S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN





Tropical Cyclone 01B:

WTIO31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151Z MAY 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 4.8N 93.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.8N 93.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 6.2N 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 7.1N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 8.3N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 9.7N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 12.8N 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.4N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 22.0N 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.1N 93.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1052 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THIS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 100715Z AMSU-B IMAGE,
WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED ON THE
EASTERN TIP OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
A 100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE OCEANSAT IMAGE
SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE LLCC IS
LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER PAKISTAN AND THE
NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RE-CURVE INTO
MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES INDIA AND THE WESTERN
BAY OF BENGAL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO
DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 100151Z MAY 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 100200).//
NNNN

Morning all. Finally through here. It seems so quiet. Nasty stuff is moving east. Stay safe all.

TWC

Plenty of lightning w/ Gulf Coast storms. Storm over Baton Rouge, La. has produced approx 275 strikes in last 5 mins.
The 0z GFS was easily the most aggressive so far on Caribbean development at the end of the run...



01B in the Northern Indian Ocean.
Quoting Ameister12:
01B in the Northern Indian Ocean.



New one? or 27B-24S?
Quoting Torito:



New one? or 27B-24S?



NVM... i see it on the floater page :3



Nice blob in the carribbian.

Good Morning..

I almost got happy seeing the storm in middle of the atlantic on the 00z/00z CMC/GFS run but FSU is saying its cold core but things may change so we will see..



00z CMC has a lot of moisture moving up towards florida in the last three frames




Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 0z GFS was easily the most aggressive so far on Caribbean development at the end of the run...





the fact that GFS is consistently showing development in the Western Caribbean during the 2nd to last and last week of this month this also along with MJO entering the area and the believe that shear would be decent at the time I want to keep an eye on it more so when it gets closer to the 5-7 day mark
Very conducive environment for intensification from the 00z GFS's point of view.


Thats alot of damn lighning strikes

Quoting TomTaylor:
Wish I would have saved the last couple MJO forecasts. Model disagreements are always great to document because the highlights biases so well. Latet GFS Ens looking maybe slightly more in line with the ECMWF (less amplified) but still significant disagreement between ECMWF and GEFS on MJO progression.

GFS Ens




ECMWF Ens



CLIVAR has "validphase" plots for 1 and 2 weeks:





Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the link to those graphics?



NMME
something to watch here
I expect storms to fire up on the southern edge of the Texas panhandle later today.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very conducive environment for intensification from the 00z GFS's point of view.




When is this? What model?
?????
maybe a storm to watch
Quoting Civicane49:


I read the blog a lot (regular reader of this blog for 5 years now) and I have a quick question regarding the 2 cyclones in the Indian Ocean. Have there ever been two cyclones so close together yet on opposite sides of the Equator? Thanks for your help!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


When is this? What model?


TA13 just said the 00Z GFS time frame for this is between 18Z 18th may - 26th may 06Z
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
736 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

Not to far from me OMG!The sky is very ugly by me
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 733 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PEARLINGTON...OR NEAR EDEN ISLE...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PEARLINGTON BY 745 AM CDT...
Quoting NUChickens:


I read the blog a lot (regular reader of this blog for 5 years now) and I have a quick question regarding the 2 cyclones in the Indian Ocean. Have there ever been two cyclones so close together yet on opposite sides of the Equator? Thanks for your help!


Thats a good question NUChickens..
(interesting handle by the way)
Good Morning All..
70 degrees with 87%rh and dew at 66..
Winds 8 from SSW..
Mostly cloudy..
Looks like we are in for a stormy day here..
I agree with you Mississippiwx..
Thats alot of lightening..



Beach looks iffy this am..

Lots of little shortwaves moving through the southern stream in advance of the positively tilted trough out west.

Mobile, AL (KMOB) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

WV loop of the disturbances.

795. beell
Quoting NUChickens:


I read the blog a lot (regular reader of this blog for 5 years now) and I have a quick question regarding the 2 cyclones in the Indian Ocean. Have there ever been two cyclones so close together yet on opposite sides of the Equator? Thanks for your help!


Equatorial Rossby Waves
and Twin Tropical Cyclogenesis


Dynamical Aspects of Twin Tropical Cyclones Associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Quoting 1900hurricane:
WV loop of the disturbances.



Interesting 1900..

Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
70 degrees with 87%rh and dew at 66..
Winds 8 from SSW..
Mostly cloudy..
Looks like we are in for a stormy day here..
I agree with you Mississippiwx..
Thats alot of lightening..



Beach looks iffy this am..



Why do you always post that same picture?
BREAKING:

24S has been officially named. It is called "Jamala".




Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Google and Time magazine have stitched together satellite images collected by NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey, showcasing developments in our planet's landscape via time-lapse.

By Alan Boyle, Science Editor, NBC News

Satellite imagery can serve as a time machine, revealing dramatic change in just a few seconds - but can you imagine documenting almost three decades' worth of all that change, across most of our planet's land mass? A team of imaging experts, computer scientists and journalists did. Now they've unveiled the result: a global database of zoomable, animated satellite views known as Timelapse.

"We believe this is the most comprehensive picture of our changing planet ever made available to the public," Rebecca Moore, engineering manager for Google Earth Engine and Earth outreach, said Thursday in Google's blog announcement of the Timelapse project.

http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/09/181 50228-time-lapse-map-chronicles-decades-of-global- change-as-seen-from-space?lite


NBC showed a few clips from this last night as well. The time-lapse of the Brazilian rain forest is one of the most alarming and depressing things I saw, but it's all pretty bad. Thanks for posting this here!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Why do you always post that same picture?


Because I want to Funnel..
Your point?
Metaire LA
The GFS is still holding on to that storm in the Carribean later this month.

So maybe it is right this time...
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Thats alot of damn lighning strikes




O_O

its blocking the radar.
New orleans
The cyclone in the Northern Indian Ocean is organizing at a good rate. Nice banding and hints of a mid-level eye feature trying to form:

cyclone getting bigger!



Anyone notice a slight rotation when following the storms on this radar?
Quoting FunnelVortex:
The GFS is still holding on to that storm in the Carribean later this month.

So maybe it is right this time...

you maybe right GFS hasn't done that bad in forecasting early season May storms in the Caribbean/SE US area in the past so maybe I would like to see this to persist for the next few days(through Wed 15/Fri 17) before I bet all my money on it right now I only put in about $15/$20 now
JAMALA

As you can see, there is a strong hot tower near it's center.

so I guess the term "ghost storm" can be retire until further notice..
stormy sunday coming for east florida..................
Quoting LargoFl:
stormy sunday coming for east florida..................


That's a LONG line of storms.
last image before night fall
All I have to say is..the GFS was right about the twin cyclones..and now it is predicting a storm in the caribbean although it is 300 plus hours out..But it has been consistent..and the pattern will be favorable...That's all I'm gonna say.I'm laughing because it seems we'll have another may storm added to the list if it materializes.
New Orleans getting HAMMERED right now.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All I have to say is..the GFS was right about the twin cyclones..and now it is predicting a storm in the caribbean although it is 300 plus hours out..But it has been consistent..and the pattern will be favorable...That's all I'm gonna say.I'm laughing because it seems we'll have another may storm added to the list if it materializes.


The GFS has the storm developing in nine days at least.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All I have to say is..the GFS was right about the twin cyclones..and now it is predicting a storm in the caribbean although it is 300 plus hours out..But it has been consistent..and the pattern will be favorable...That's all I'm gonna say.I'm laughing because it seems we'll have another may storm added to the list if it materializes.


Good Morning Washi..
I think your right..
We may have a "May" storm to watch after all..
I know thats all you have to say..
But we miss you.. :)
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The GFS has the storm developing in nine days at least.


216 hours.
Quoting Torito:


216 hours.


Yep. Nine days.

We have to wait to see what happens when the Euro's timeframe includes it.
826. xcool
Flooded streets in Northwood Village in Slidell la
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Yep. Nine days.

We have to wait to see what happens when the Euro's timeframe includes it.


Euro is 150H, right?
Quoting Torito:


Euro is 150H, right?


175 I think.
73 Here in MD right now, supposed to get up to 85.
another view from downtown new orleans
Predicted paths the storms in june should take... Sorry Largo and Pcola...

Slidell..
Looks to be piling up here..



Soggy parking lot..
They may have to wade to their cars/trucks..

Quoting Torito:
Predicted paths the storms in june should take... Sorry Largo and Pcola...



It's ok Torito..
It comes with the territory..
Just hope Cat 2 and less..
L8rs, ill be back for the 11:00 sattellite update :P
and if you think about it 9 days ain't that far

another thing if you look closely at 850mb vort you will see that this actually forms on the 18th not 19th so its more or less 8 days

can't wait to see what 12Z runs say
Quoting pcola57:


Thats a good question NUChickens..
(interesting handle by the way)


It comes from my college days. I went to Northeastern University and my nickname at school was Chickens. That's where NUChickens came from.

And thanks beell for the links. :)
Quoting Torito:
Predicted paths the storms in june should take... Sorry Largo and Pcola...


generally Honduras Belize Jamaica Cayman Yucatan Cuba Florida/F Keys S Texas and Mexico
Quoting Torito:
Predicted paths the storms in june should take... Sorry Largo and Pcola...



And me, that track goes directly over my house.
Quoting Torito:
Predicted paths the storms in june should take... Sorry Largo and Pcola...



That doesn't look to good for me either!!
Still not much going on with this, could be a weak Nina soon if anything.



SE TX

Discussion... Relatively Well-Organized Clusters Of Intense Storms
Will Persist While Moving Esewd Across The Upper TX Coast Through
The Rest Of The Morning. This Activity Is Being Fueled By A Plume Of
Very Unstable Air Streaming Across An Outflow Boundary Left In The
Wake Of Earlier Mcs Now Moving Over Se La/Ms Delta. Expect Gradual
Increase In Convective Vigor As Storms Encounter Some Increase In
Diurnal Destabilization Before Moving Over The Wrn Gulf Later. Until
Then... Shear Profiles From Hgx And Crp Sounding Show More Than
Adequate Shear For Supercell Structures And/Or Line Segments With
Both Large Hail And Dmg Wind Potential.

@Rita,

This is relevant to you:

From the 0458 Area Forecast Discussion

MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH **SHOULD** BE SITUATED NEAR THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. THEY`VE ALL BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING THIS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAJORITY OF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALONG/SOUTH IF I-10 AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HOPEFULLY THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA SEES A GOOD SOAKER THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS AS THAT AREA OF SE TX REALLY
NEEDS THE RAIN. FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH
RAIN MOSTLY TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTN.


Stay dry, we got soaked last night with a training storm a little bit of hail too.
01B up to 35kts.

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 5.5N 92.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5N 92.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 6.8N 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 8.1N 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.6N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.2N 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.3N 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.6N 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 5.8N 92.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 101130Z SSMIS IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A DEFINED LLCC. DESPITE THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT, DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW AT 30 KNOTS; HOWEVER, A
100244Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE BOTH SHOW 35-KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35
KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, A 10/12Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM NORTH
OF THE CENTER, INDICATES SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 29 KNOTS WITH
SLP NEAR 1002 MB, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PRODUCING NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 01B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. THEREAFTER, TC
01B IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER PAKISTAN AND THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM
WILL RE-CURVE INTO MYANMAR AS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
INDIA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF,
WHICH INDICATES RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN THE EXTENDED
TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET ECMWF
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO DECREASING VWS AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

06z GFS Ensembles Spread..NA Map..last 3 frames.





Good mornin' all. Interesting story...

"Ghost town comes up for air after 25 years under water".

Link

Added: More photos here...

Link





Quoting pcola57:
Slidell..
Looks to be piling up here..



Soggy parking lot..
They may have to wade to their cars/trucks..


I think that was actually Waveland, MS, not Slidell, LA.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDail yHistory.asp?ID=KMSWAVEL2&day=10&month=05&year=201 3

Here at the office I think I heard them say we had about 1.8" of rain with that embedded supercell in the squall line. Probably about an hour duration.
Quoting RitaEvac:

Oh, baby! Rita. That's got to get in by you. I know you are keeping your fingers crossed. I'm pulling for it. Although that almost looks too heavy, and in a training (repeated) thunderstorm fashion. You would hate to have flash flooding where everything just runs off and doesn't get absorbed into the ground.
So how are we supposed to spin these "positive" aspects of climate change? I've been telling everyone there are only negative aspects. Can't make a career out of it if the weather is getting better!!

Link
11:00 update.


01B



92B



Jamala(24S)



NOAA Appears to have the same satellite for 01B and 92B...
I used to be so aggravated when a nice looking healthy line of showers and thunderstorms literally vanished in thin air before making it to my location. Now, I find that it's almost just as frustrating when you get repeated training thunderstorms that cause flash flooding. And this is not only because of the problem that flash flooding can bring, but also the fact that very little rain never gets a chance to get soaked into the ground!
Quoting ColdInFL:
So how are we supposed to spin these "positive" aspects of climate change? I've been telling everyone there are only negative aspects. Can't make a career out of it if the weather is getting better!!

Link

There's a silver lining in most everything.
I don't get off till 11:30, I'm gonna be right in the middle of it apparently.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't get off till 11:30, I'm gonna be right in the middle of it apparently.

Sounds like you might be parked in traffic. Hate that feeling at work knowing the commute will likely suck on the way home!
Coastal counties have been untapped and atmosphere is primed, storms have plenty of fuel ahead of it


I'm near the NWS site and have received nothing so far in the past 24 hrs
857. txjac
OMG ...the weather? I had no idea it was going to be like this!

It's like 10:00 pm here in southwest Houston ...everyone at the office is watching. It's so dark and the lightening is extra bright, thundering.

I wish I wouldnt have come in as this area of town floods
Quoting txjac:
OMG ...the weather? I had no idea it was going to be like this!

It's like 10:00 pm here in southwest Houston ...everyone at the office is watching. It's so dark and the lightening is extra bright, thundering.

I wish I wouldnt have come in as this area of town floods


Got any pictures? im interested to see :D
Some heavy showers beginning to blow up in Williamson, Saline, and northeastern Union counties in Southern Illinois

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
861. txjac
Quoting Torito:


Got any pictures? im interested to see :D


I'll see if I can get some.
Quoting Torito:


Got any pictures? im interested to see :D

Picture from downtown Houston looking due north ~5 min ago: http://imgur.com/EjikDYt
Picture just now same place: http://imgur.com/R9f0eaw

Just now picture in small thumbnail - it's pretty much pitch black out. I've been working past 8pm during winter, and it looks about the same:

Maybe some truth that where the corrupt politicians are such as Austin, well....no rain



Mornin everybody. Buckle Up. Its that time of year!!
Quoting K8eCane:
Mornin everybody. Buckle Up. Its that time of year!!



Brand new Jeff master blog.

Link
"It goes without saying that "Crazy" and unpredictable weather is an historical anomaly. That is as obvious a proof of their models' ironclad Oven Earth prognostications as any statistical swerve to those halcyon days of the 1900's where the weather was marginally cooler and less whiplashy (Serealy, Guys, we all know that if no Doppler radar existed to witness a remote tornado, then the tornado never existed)."

http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=339853