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Topical Storm Kyle forms, and heads towards Nova Scotia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM GMT on September 25, 2008

Our 10-day lull in tropical cyclone activity is over. The tropical disturbance (93L) that has been bedeviling Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands finally developed a well-formed closed circulation and enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Storm Kyle. Visible satellite loops show the classic signature of a tropical storm undergoing high wind shear--an exposed low-level circulation center, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed over to one side by the shear. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter flight found top winds of about 45 mph in the heavy thunderstorms on the east side of Kyle.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear has dropped to about 15 knots, and this allowed Kyle to organize sufficiently to get a name today. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 10-20 knots for the next two days, which should allow Kyle to intensify to at least a 65 mph tropical storm. Kyle is currently over waters of about 28°C. Waters will stay this warm Friday, then cool to 26°C on Saturday. After Kyle crosses north of 40° latitude (east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts), the waters cool dramatically to 15°C (59°F) and shear is expected to increase. This should weaken Kyle by about 10-15 mph before landfall on Sunday afternoon. I'm expecting Kyle to be a 50-60 mph tropical storm at landfall Sunday afternoon in Nova Scotia. According to the forecast wind radius from NHC, tropical storm force winds of 39 mph and higher will miss Massachusetts, but may affect eastern Maine. Tropical storm force winds are also expected to miss Bermuda. (Use the wundermap with "wind radius" turned on to see the expected radius of tropical storm force winds).

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks go to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. I know I personally will be contributing to help decorate our wunderphoto gallery (but more so to help out the people of Winnie and Bridge City!) We're up to $2500 so far.


Figure 2. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting HurrikanEB:


i said it earlier, and everyone knows it; if it doesnt have a name it gets no recognition, if it has a name then it gets blown out of proportion.


That is living proof here!! If we get a hint of a storm, we get warnings and more warnings. I am blown away (heheheheeee) that there isn't one!!!
Quoting kimSCbeaches:


That is living proof here!! If we get a hint of a storm, we get warnings and more warnings. I am blown away (heheheheeee) that there isn't one!!!


My only concern about the lack of warnings would be for people in say mobile homes or other fragile structures. Someone earlier mention that their mobile home was getting rocked. I did see that they put up Gale warnings (39-54 mph hr winds I believe) but I don't think that people pay as much attention to a "Gale" warning as they do to say a TS warning. Same basic wind speeds.
Hi Baha - has it been too quiet for you? You are tempting the storm fates again.

I love the track of Kyle - my daughter & her husband moved to Maine(he's from there), partly in response to 2004 & 05 - he really didn't like the storms. They are in the cone!

Had to call and get my chuckle for the night.
Bad mom.
not getting off topic but has anyone herd of any outlooks on what type winter we will have here in the south this year??
EB, I don't know if that's true about Kyle, though. People seem to have been taking note of it a bit more than other storms, perhaps because it was slated to become a storm at some point. I think at this point it's more a matter of impact. As 93L Kyle was supposed to hit the same areas as the last few storms, and this made it potentially newsworthy. 94L, aside from not being "really" tropical, seems likely to affect areas that have been relatively unscathed by the storms they have had so far.
I guess they didnt have any Nor'Easter icons
I still am sitting here near Myrtle Beach in shock that this storm has NO WARNINGS, except the standard flood ones. As I am typing the strongest gust of wind just hit!!! I so hope my trampoline is still in our yard now!! LOL

i was in fort myers for fay(closest i've been to a storm) i dont know what the actuall winds were there, but we barely we're in the nhc's tropical storm force winds track graphic. It was pretty much the first time i ever experienced a house vibrating from wind. of course we had the shutters up so i coulddnt see outside- but there was basically no wind damage
Quoting CapeObserver:


My only concern about the lack of warnings would be for people in say mobile homes or other fragile structures. Someone earlier mention that their mobile home was getting rocked. I did see that they put up Gale warnings (39-54 mph hr winds I believe) but I don't think that people pay as much attention to a "Gale" warning as they do to say a TS warning. Same basic wind speeds.


Why do they allow people to live in mobilehomes in America???? It should be outlawed.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha - has it been too quiet for you? You are tempting the storm fates again.

I love the track of Kyle - my daughter & her husband moved to Maine(he's from there), partly in response to 2004 & 05 - he really didn't like the storms. They are in the cone!

Had to call and get my chuckle for the night.
Bad mom.


Haha......my family is in MA and I did the same thing, LOL.
Wow, the non-storm 94L "eye" just got rather tight.

Link

Quoting WxLogic:


Ohh and Orca... likes to remind me to remind you to visit his Blog too... so please visit his Blog!!! Hehe...

Hey.. it answered the question.. and was a lot easier then posting the pics.. which everyone liked, but complained about the size. Resizing them was a pain.. ergo the blog

Quoting BDADUDE:


Why do they allow people to live in mobilehomes in America???? It should be outlawed.


Perhaps it's because houses have become so expensive? Try working a minimum wage job sometime and see what is affordable.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I still am sitting here near Myrtle Beach in shock that this storm has NO WARNINGS, except the standard flood ones. As I am typing the strongest gust of wind just hit!!! I so hope my trampoline is still in our yard now!! LOL

i was in fort myers for fay(closest i've been to a storm) i dont know what the actuall winds were there, but we barely we're in the nhc's tropical storm force winds track graphic. It was pretty much the first time i ever experienced a house vibrating from wind. of course we had the shutters up so i coulddnt see outside- but there was basically no wind damage


I live in Cape Coral and what you saw from Fay was basically a windy day. Granted an extended one but nothing to write home about. The rains were more of a factor. Consider that an introduction to a tropical system.
Quoting BDADUDE:


Why do they allow people to live in mobilehomes in America???? It should be outlawed.

Why, they haven't outlawed people having to live in a cardboard box?
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha - has it been too quiet for you? You are tempting the storm fates again.

I love the track of Kyle - my daughter & her husband moved to Maine(he's from there), partly in response to 2004 & 05 - he really didn't like the storms. They are in the cone!

Had to call and get my chuckle for the night.
Bad mom.
Hey, neighbour. I think we have lucked it out so far, and I really REALLY hope our luck holds. . . . sure hasn't been too quiet; in fact, I've been enjoying the break a bit. I just didn't expect for it to last . . . LOL.

Yeah, if u're meant to get hit by a storm, moving to Maine won't help . . . lol. This sure has been a season of "screwy" tracks. We should have expected it after Arthur . . .

I haven't really been looking at data much the last 10 days or so, just picking up the blog briefly every few nights. Hopefully this weekend I can look at stuff - MJO, long range global forecasts, long-range surface analyses, even jetstream info - just to get a better idea of how things might set up between now and this time next month. I still think it's possible we'll be tracking SOMEthing in late November or early December, but I'm hoping the "worst" of it will be over by this time next month.

If I get really happy, I may even write something up for my blog. . . . lol
987.8mb (29.26") Here in Myrtle Beach....... still dropping.....
Mr. Former Kyle HHer will make it nowhere near 94 by 11pm. If this storm ever gets a name it'll be post-season. Oh well. Most of the NC/SC weathercasters have been warning about this one for days so I hope most made at least some preps for a bad storm.
Quoting kimSCbeaches:


That is living proof here!! If we get a hint of a storm, we get warnings and more warnings. I am blown away (heheheheeee) that there isn't one!!!


Along my line of chance of rain - if its 70% or better, nothing, 20-30% - we get every last drop!
Quoting Orcasystems:

Why, they haven't outlawed people having to live in a cardboard box?


He shoots, he scores!
Quoting BahaHurican:
EB, I don't know if that's true about Kyle, though. People seem to have been taking note of it a bit more than other storms, perhaps because it was slated to become a storm at some point. I think at this point it's more a matter of impact. As 93L Kyle was supposed to hit the same areas as the last few storms, and this made it potentially newsworthy. 94L, aside from not being "really" tropical, seems likely to affect areas that have been relatively unscathed by the storms they have had so far.


just in general.i know that where i am (NYS hudson valley) its hard to find anyone that gives a thought about tropical storms...much less an invest. But im sure that down state and in Long Island they probally pay more attention. Its just that people pay attention to what's going to effect them
Quoting Orcasystems:

Hey.. it answered the question.. and was a lot easier then posting the pics.. which everyone liked, but complained about the size. Resizing them was a pain.. ergo the blog



LOL... is all good man. I'm thinking of doing the same thing... may be starting next year... so I won't have to type as much... hey but keep it up... you got good stuff in there.
513. violet312s 2:46 AM GMT on September 26, 2008

The american govt has lots of money and should find alternatives to mobile homes. This is not the dark ages, if the govt can pay hundreds of billions to save offshore companies then they should be able to build a few block houses for underprivelaged people. Wooden houses are not allowed in Bermuda - never mind mobile homes.





Hey, neighbour. I think we have lucked it out so far, and I really REALLY hope our luck holds. . . . sure hasn't been too quiet; in fact, I've been enjoying the break a bit. I just didn't expect for it to last . . . LOL

You know, I like storms - not big bad hurricanes that hurt peoples life, but big bad thunderstorms are pretty cool. Nor'easters are pretty cool. Sometimes even a small hurricane is cool. Ike did me in - watching what they have gone through, and then seeing the devastated people of Haiti, storms don't look so good. I will go back to my afternoon boomers.

HH's almost there.....

Quoting WxLogic:


LOL... is all good man. I'm thinking of doing the same thing... may be starting next year... so I won't have to type as much... hey but keep it up... you got good stuff in there.
I have to say I'm really impressed with what Orca has done with the data to make it more accessible to just about everybody.

And to think he just "dropped in" for business reasons and didn't realize his calling was to be an information angel for the blog of bloggers. . . .

Hey everyone! We got our electricity back today! Thank you Lord! Hope everyone is well! God bless!
That was the most utterly worthless TWC Tropical Update I have ever seen. Did they even show Wilmington radar? Nope. Even their coverage of Kyle was about 10 seconds.
992.0 mb
(~ 29.29 inHg)


look Thel . Probably an altitude change but interesting
Quoting CapeObserver:


I live in Cape Coral and what you saw from Fay was basically a windy day. Granted an extended one but nothing to write home about. The rains were more of a factor. Consider that an introduction to a tropical system.


yeah, i sort of figured that out when i went outside and there was nothing aside from a few flooded streets. I didnt actually get to see what the winds were doing because my parents wouldnt let me outside (dissapointing ;-P ) except to open the door ocasionally. But yeah, i've seen much worse done from a thunderstorm in new york. Its just that the house rattled, which i had never experienced before.

but since it was my first encounter with a tropical storm it was a little different (and fun). when i got back to new york everyone was like "what was the hurricane like?!"
looks like land fall imminent in Horry County, SC.....

HurrikanEB - what part of hudson valley do you live in?
BDADUDE...made a momentary lapse and discussed politics on a weather blog.

Now returning to weather chat.

Might want to check out info on Haiti. Might be eye-opening.
Quoting BDADUDE:
513. violet312s 2:46 AM GMT on September 26, 2008

The american govt has lots of money and should find alternatives to mobile homes. This is not the dark ages, if the govt can pay hundreds of billions to save offshore companies then they should be able to build a few block houses for underprivelaged people. Wooden houses are not allowed in Bermuda - never mind mobile homes.







Well we "had" money... now is just a matter of jump starting the economy... off topic here... so coming back to WX stuff... look over there!!! A bird got swallowed by KYLE... ahh poor bird.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hey, neighbour. I think we have lucked it out so far, and I really REALLY hope our luck holds. . . . sure hasn't been too quiet; in fact, I've been enjoying the break a bit. I just didn't expect for it to last . . . LOL

You know, I like storms - not big bad hurricanes that hurt peoples life, but big bad thunderstorms are pretty cool. Nor'easters are pretty cool. Sometimes even a small hurricane is cool. Ike did me in - watching what they have gone through, and then seeing the devastated people of Haiti, storms don't look so good. I will go back to my afternoon boomers.

Yeah, I see ur point. I would have enjoyed Hanna a lot more if it hadn't gone down and devastated northern Haiti first. We got some weather from it, but even in the worst hit areas it wasn't as bad as expected. However, watching and knowing what it was going to do to increase the misery of residents there was no fun.

It's a pity we can't have what we want, which is all of the pleasure and none of the pain. . . .
Quoting zoomiami:
HurrikanEB - what part of hudson valley do you live in?


kingston
Are we at landfall with 94L?
Quoting violet312s:
That was the most utterly worthless TWC Tropical Update I have ever seen. Did they even show Wilmington radar? Nope. Even their coverage of Kyle was about 10 seconds.


LOL!!! I used to watched them constantly years ago when Dr. Hope used to be there... he was great...
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have to say I'm really impressed with what Orca has done with the data to make it more accessible to just about everybody.

And to think he just "dropped in" for business reasons and didn't realize his calling was to be an information angel for the blog of bloggers. . . .



Information Angel? I have been called a lot of things.. thats a first.
looks like laura on radar to me
11pm kyle
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...24.8 N...68.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
29.26.....looks like we bottomed out there....

So I expect recon to find at least 988mb.....

Will.... you are in Wilmington.... right?
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR GENERALLY LIMITING CLOUD
FORMATION AND SHOWERS

To me, this has been the story of the Caribbean Sea this season. Just no real instability. . .
i g2g
night everyone
Quoting WxLogic:


LOL!!! I used to watched them constantly years ago when Dr. Hope used to be there... he was great...


Dr. Hope was awesome. May he be happily forecasting weather from heaven.
Baha - I completely agree with how well Orca has made his site - its a great stop in place for all in one news of the day.

Maybe thats' what he should call it - the Stop & Shop Trop Site.
He really has made those maps come alive.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


yeah, i sort of figured that out when i went outside and there was nothing aside from a few flooded streets. I didnt actually get to see what the winds were doing because my parents wouldnt let me outside (dissapointing ;-P ) except to open the door ocasionally. But yeah, i've seen much worse done from a thunderstorm in new york. Its just that the house rattled, which i had never experienced before.

but since it was my first encounter with a tropical storm it was a little different (and fun). when i got back to new york everyone was like "what was the hurricane like?!"


Trust me when I say a hurricane is not fun. Be grateful you got a little taste of tropical weather and nothing more. You do not want to sit through a hurricane if you don't have to.
No a lil north on Emerald Isle
Quoting violet312s:


Dr. Hope was awesome. May he be happily forecasting weather from heaven.


Amen!!! to that...
Information Angel? I have been called a lot of things.. thats a first.

His head will swell so much the halo won't fit anymore!
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE
EARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF
994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. THERE WERE ALSO A
FEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON
BOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO
HIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN
WOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS
NOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
EXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
Ha! Ha! Ha! Haven't we all seen the posts about you polishing your halo??????
Kinda surprised to see that SC was not giving a little more warning on TSKyle.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Information Angel? I have been called a lot of things.. thats a first.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


yeah, i sort of figured that out when i went outside and there was nothing aside from a few flooded streets. I didnt actually get to see what the winds were doing because my parents wouldnt let me outside (dissapointing ;-P ) except to open the door ocasionally. But yeah, i've seen much worse done from a thunderstorm in new york. Its just that the house rattled, which i had never experienced before.

but since it was my first encounter with a tropical storm it was a little different (and fun). when i got back to new york everyone was like "what was the hurricane like?!"



Thats cause 40 mph gusts tople trees and down power lines up there, notherners are storm wimps aside from the harsh winter weather, average thunderstorms down here are called severe thunderstorms up there, are as fox news always says "an absolute deluge in the northeast" when its just a typical rain shower if it were down here.


Trust me, you want violent weather, move to the deep south...
looks like recon turned SFMR off maybe havig a prob with it wait thet climbed to 8,227 meters
(~ 26,991 feet) maybe headed home?
Well... heading out... let's see how tomorrow AM looks for the GOM, Carib. Sea and Atlantic... should be much. I expect things to start heading up quite a bit starting Sunday night into Monday. l8r.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Information Angel? I have been called a lot of things.. thats a first.
U know, like theatre angel??? LOL

Quoting zoomiami:
Information Angel? I have been called a lot of things.. thats a first.

His head will swell so much the halo won't fit anymore!


Not sure why, but little pointy things on my head actually stop the halo from touching my hair?
Quoting will40:
No a lil north on Emerald Isle


roger that..... just west of Morehead City......
Quoting violet312s:


Perhaps it's because houses have become so expensive? Try working a minimum wage job sometime and see what is affordable.

Hi Violet...you're the 'Heroic Sweetie' on the blog! Great job, woman!
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi Violet...you're the 'Heroic Sweetie' on the blog! Great job, woman!


LOL thanks! Have you given to the Presslord dress drive? Can't wait to see that picture!

Link
29.24" here in Myrtle..... (987mb)
Doesn't the NHC thinks Kyle will become a hurricane? Somebody 'up there' does...(not sure who cuz I've worked my butt off today, hardly eaten and can hardly think anymore...but at least I'm employed so am not complaining!
Fortunately, Kyle is headed for cooler waters.
Quoting Orcasystems:

Why, they haven't outlawed people having to live in a cardboard box?


Most new 'pre-manufactured' housing these days is built to a higher standard then the 'average' home. 2x6 wood framing. Walls, floors, and roof securely banded together. If put on a secure foundation, they're not cardboard boxes. Very different from the roach hotels they made in the past. That being said, you're 'average' house by the ocean in a hurricane is going to get trashed anyway. If you want your home to survive a hurricane... easiest way is to get away from the ocean and find higher ground.
Yep got that right. Most people call it south but they dont realize that the coast here runs a lil east to west here lol
Go little HHer plane...Go!!! You can do it! Taking forever.
Quoting thelmores:
29.24" here in Myrtle..... (987mb)


Please tell me what that means in English hehehee...... I am still so in shock there isn't some kind of storm warnings.
I'm about to mention something I should be completely ashamed of. I've lived here in Durham for NINE years and I have yet to make it to the NC coast. Mountains several times. Beach, no.

Off to hang head in shame. Doesn't help I have an SO that hates swimming.
Quoting SafeInTexas:


Most new 'pre-manufactured' housing these days is built to a higher standard then the 'average' home. 2x6 wood framing. Walls, floors, and roof securely banded together. If put on a secure foundation, they're not cardboard boxes. Very different from the roach hotels they made in the past. That being said, you're 'average' house by the ocean in a hurricane is going to get trashed anyway. If you want your home to survive a hurricane... easiest way is to get away from the ocean and find higher ground.


I think you missed the context the remark was made in.

It was meant in the context of... why outlaw mobile homes.. you have not outlawed people having no place to live and sleeping on the street in cardboard boxes.
Quoting NewHopeTx08:
Hey everyone! We got our electricity back today! Thank you Lord! Hope everyone is well! God bless!
welcome back hope all is well
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I still am sitting here near Myrtle Beach in shock that this storm has NO WARNINGS, except the standard flood ones. As I am typing the strongest gust of wind just hit!!! I so hope my trampoline is still in our yard now!! LOL

i was in fort myers for fay(closest i've been to a storm) i dont know what the actuall winds were there, but we barely we're in the nhc's tropical storm force winds track graphic. It was pretty much the first time i ever experienced a house vibrating from wind. of course we had the shutters up so i coulddnt see outside- but there was basically no wind damage




Dude a few years ago on Christmas a violent and very deep non-tropical low blew through here, in central Florida, we had a violent nor' easter comparable to the big time known storms in the northeast, it was definitely a "no named storm" that should have been named and we had NO WARNING at all, all we had a was a forecast for gusty winds and some heavy showers. But a nor' easter bombed out in the southern gulf overnight to 960 mb or somethin like that, and it was so organized it had a core of strong winds around the very center that went over us, gusts topped between 60 and 70 mph throughout the tampa bay area, and we had about 4 inches of rain and tornado warnings as well.


The temp was 72 degrees on the east side of the center of the low humid warm and wet, then dropped to 45 degrees with the windshift as the center went over us in just 2 hours! We had a freeze by morning, the day after Christmas.


It wasn't forecasted at all, it blew off all our Christas lights lol
Winds just made it to Durham. And now they're gone. All I've had is a few sprinkles. And now they're back. Hey, it's wind...has a mind of it's own.
Link look here violet
Violet...I don't care about the undies, but please make Presslord stuff the bra, okay?
If you send me your address via wu-mail, I'll send you my novel. I can donate some novels to hurricane survivors if they want something to read while waiting for the lights to come on. There's a nice section in there about surviving the '04 hurricane season as three hurricanes criss-crossed Florida. It may not be everyone's cup of tea, so you'd have to read it first!
Quoting will40:
Link look here violet


LMAO! But sorry the hair, makeup and ruffles on the dress are missing. Would also love to see fishnet stockings and maybe stilettos.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I still am sitting here near Myrtle Beach in shock that this storm has NO WARNINGS, except the standard flood ones. As I am typing the strongest gust of wind just hit!!! I so hope my trampoline is still in our yard now!! LOL

i was in fort myers for fay(closest i've been to a storm) i dont know what the actuall winds were there, but we barely we're in the nhc's tropical storm force winds track graphic. It was pretty much the first time i ever experienced a house vibrating from wind. of course we had the shutters up so i coulddnt see outside- but there was basically no wind damage


Went back and checked before I posted this, but actually the offical NHC track graphics for Fay had the whole west coast south of Tampa on Hurricane warning starting with the 08-18-08 11am edt update. It stayed that way until the 5am update on the 19th which was right around the time of landfall when it was reduced to TS warning.
The east coast was under TS warnings this entire time extending north almost to St. Augustine.

-rob
Quoting BDADUDE:
513. violet312s 2:46 AM GMT on September 26, 2008

The american govt has lots of money and should find alternatives to mobile homes. This is not the dark ages, if the govt can pay hundreds of billions to save offshore companies then they should be able to build a few block houses for underprivelaged people. Wooden houses are not allowed in Bermuda - never mind mobile homes.





For violet and others, keep in mind that the average Bermudian or Bahamian is not likely to think of himself or herself as being more affluent than than the average American. So it seems strange to us to think of Americans not being able to afford things we think of as automatic, matter-of-course "necessities" of tropical life. It's a stereotype of course, (IMO greatly perpetuated by TV) that all Americans are wealthy; very little is shown to the world of the poorest Americans who, sad to say, are pretty darned poor. The difference in the tropical ATL is the attitude that government has not so much the right as the responsibilty to care for housing needs / interests of citizens. Case in point: the Ministry of Housing is a major portfolio in Bahamian politics. We can't afford to keep rebuilding to the tune of millions or billions of dollars every time a storm comes through, so we are basically forced to take a proactive approach. Because Americans view government as having different responsibilities, this concept of government-sponsored sturdy affordable housing in relatively less vulnerable locations doesn't have much play. It's a different world view that perhaps has to be experienced (i. e. lived with) in order to be understood.
Baja made a much better one it is in SJ blog i think lol
Quoting Chicklit:
Violet...I don't care about the undies, but please make Presslord stuff the bra, okay?
If you send me your address via wu-mail, I'll send you my novel. I can donate some novels to hurricane survivors if they want something to read while waiting for the lights to come on. There's a nice section in there about suriving the '04 hurricane season as three hurricanes criss-crossed Florida. It may not be everyone's cup of tea, so you'd have to read it first!


I'll leave the bra-stuffing to Press' wife.

Hadn't thought of the book idea. Hmmm.. I'm stitting on boxes of them as well. I'll ask him if he thinks that would be helpful.

You just reminded me of something. I work for a cell phone manufacturer. Keep forgetting to find out if I can donate some over-stocks.

Suzanne
Quoting kimSCbeaches:


Please tell me what that means in English hehehee......


It means we have a pretty low pressure reading..... lower than Kyle's! LOL

Pressure tends to be an indication of "strength" of the storm.... lower = stronger.

Recon is due east of Myrtle.....measuring about 45mph at the surface.... and those are not the strongest winds out there.....
Night all. Tomorrow's another day.
Stay safe and congrats to all the folks who are making a positive difference for others.
Quoting violet312s:
I'm about to mention something I should be completely ashamed of. I've lived here in Durham for NINE years and I have yet to make it to the NC coast. Mountains several times. Beach, no.

Off to hang head in shame. Doesn't help I have an SO that hates swimming.
My instinct about NC beaches is "nothing to write home about". I schooled in NC (3 yrs in Greensboro) and never made it to the beach. Mountains 3 times; beach, 0.

Of course I grew up going to the beach in the Bahamas, so perhaps I'm a bit . . . . biased . . .

LOL
#570

i think this is what u were talking about
Link
nite Chicklit! :)
seeya thelmores.
Cool, our little diverted HHer is now in 94L. Let's see what he finds.
rain/wind starting to wrap around the north and east side of the storm. Link
Quoting Jedkins01:



Thats cause 40 mph gusts tople trees and down power lines up there, notherners are storm wimps aside from the harsh winter weather, average thunderstorms down here are called severe thunderstorms up there, are as fox news always says "an absolute deluge in the northeast" when its just a typical rain shower if it were down here.


Trust me, you want violent weather, move to the deep south...
try a midwest winter when we get the blizzards and are outside clearing 15 inches of snow with 30 to 40 MPH winds and live with that for about 4 months
Recon poking around.... about 60mph at flight level, 45mph at surface..... rain coming down sideways in Myrtle, at 29.26 and 2.5" of rain so far today....

996.1 mb
(~ 29.41 inHg)


41.0 knots 41.0 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
(~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


48 miles (77 km) to the SE (127°) from Myrtle Beach, SC, USA.
Maybe dominos, checkers, backgammon along with the books? I admit I hadn't thought about this as potentially useful items for post-storm life . . .

Anyway I'm out, ya'll. Stay safe in the non-tropical storm, everybody.

G'night.
they will not name the storm when it is making landfall the only way this storm gets recognized is in post season

Quoting BahaHurican:
My instinct about NC beaches is "nothing to write home about". I schooled in NC (3 yrs in Greensboro) and never made it to the beach. Mountains 3 times; beach, 0.

Of course I grew up going to the beach in the Bahamas, so perhaps I'm a bit . . . . biased . . .

LOL


I love NC beaches. A lot of cool history behind a lot of the places. Downtown Wilmington is one of my favorite places in the world; I've also taken a strong liking to Bald Head Island. One of the coolest places ever, where no cars are allowed and you get from place to place by Golf cart. Outer Banks are awesome too; They just got finished filming the new movie " Nights in Rodanthe" there. Also the wild horses that roam the beaches are a cool sight to see.


Click to enlarge
Chicklit,

I would love to buy one of your books! email me the details.... : )
Quoting Chicklit:
Violet...I don't care about the undies, but please make Presslord stuff the bra, okay?
If you send me your address via wu-mail, I'll send you my novel. I can donate some novels to hurricane survivors if they want something to read while waiting for the lights to come on. There's a nice section in there about surviving the '04 hurricane season as three hurricanes criss-crossed Florida. It may not be everyone's cup of tea, so you'd have to read it first!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Maybe dominos, checkers, backgammon along with the books? I admit I hadn't thought about this as potentially useful items for post-storm life . . .

Anyway I'm out, ya'll. Stay safe in the non-tropical storm, everybody.

G'night.


Had the same though. I think Chicklit just came up with a great idea. Everyone needs to have fun and some "family time" during recovery. Will ask if this is feasible. Seriously, something as simple as a deck of cards.

g'night
NWFL Panhandle.... some of the most beautiful beaches in the world. Whitest sand, emerald waters... thats why we live in Hurricane Zone! LOL Just posted a couple of pics.
Quoting Alockwr21:


I love NC beaches. A lot of cool history behind a lot of the places. Downtown Wilmington is one of my favorite places in the world; I've also taken a strong liking to Bald Head Island. One of the coolest places ever, where no cars are allowed and you get from place to place by Golf cart. Outer Banks are awesome too; They just got finished filming the new movie " Nights in Rodanthe" there. Also the wild horses that roam the beaches are a cool sight to see.
Quoting Alockwr21:


I love NC beaches. A lot of cool history behind a lot of the places. Downtown Wilmington is one of my favorite places in the world; I've also taken a strong liking to Bald Head Island. One of the coolest places ever, where no cars are allowed and you get from place to place by Golf cart. Outer Banks are awesome too; They just got finished filming the new movie " Nights in Rodanthe" there. Also the wild horses that roam the beaches are a cool sight to see.
I'm down with Wilmington and surrounding area; it's an interesting and historical city with some pretty jazzy links to Nassau and some illegal activities that raised eyebrows at the time. . . it's just the actual BEACH itself I wasn't impressed by . . . LOL If I did go back to NC beaches anytime soon it would prolly be further north on the OBX east of the Pamlico sound area. But the kinds of beaches I grew up with are hard to beat if there's no coral reef. Check out photos of Belize, eastern Australia, etc.
Anyone else feel sorry for the HHer. Imagine this message:

HHer: Okay, we're done with Kyle
Control: Excellent, how about a trip to 94L?
HHer: What?
Control: 94L
HHer: Dammit
Don't get me wrong... I love NC beaches, outer banks, SC beaches. Grew up spending lots of summer time along both NC & SC coasts....
New HH enroute from StCroix

Complete refresh
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm down with Wilmington and surrounding area; it's an interesting and historical city with some pretty jazzy links to Nassau and some illegal activities that raised eyebrows at the time. . . it's just the actual BEACH itself I wasn't impressed by . . . LOL If I did go back to NC beaches anytime soon it would prolly be further north on the OBX east of the Pamlico sound area. But the kinds of beaches I grew up with are hard to beat if there's no coral reef. Check out photos of Belize, eastern Australia, etc.


Awesome pictures! We're getting ready to head down to Nassau on Sunday, it'll be my first time. I went to the Turks and Caicos two years ago...an absolutely stunning place for those who never been. I agree, the beaches in Wilmington aren't the prettiest by any means...Wrightsville Beach is a nice, sort of private spot. If you ever get the chance you should really check out Bald Head Island. A certain amount of land was set aside during the development stages, to insure that the wild life would remain. Just a huge Maritime forest; alligators are pretty common there however.
Quoting Orcasystems:
New HH enroute from StCroix

Complete refresh


You are so great with the updates.

I'm watching the HHer close to home. :)
C
Quoting violet312s:


You are so great with the updates.

I'm watching the HHer close to home. :)


and that would be where?
Recon heading home....

Looks like 94 taking a vacation in Myrtle Beach! LOL

Quoting thelmores:
Recon heading home....

Looks like 94 taking a vacation in Myrtle Beach! LOL


I've come home to see it looks like a tropical storm. I hope the at least admit it was a subtropical/tropical storm post season.
602. Alockwr21
Love all the areas you mentioned... Would like to visit Knotts Island, NC. Rumor has it that the "Lighthouse Keeper" is my great uncle.
It appears that the storm made landfall with a pressure of 993 mb in the Myrtle Beach area.
Quoting HurricaneKing:

I'm come home to see it looks like a tropical storm. I hope the at least admit it was a subtropical/tropical storm post season.


Well....if it doesn't make it..... it was damned close!

We have had named storms that didn't have the impact 94 did.....

If we had never started naming STS's then we wouldn't have to worry about it! LOL
Quoting thelmores:


Well....if it doesn't make it..... it was damned close!

We have had named storms that didn't have the impact 94 did.....

If we had never started naming STS's then we wouldn't have to worry about it! LOL


I'm not so sure. right before landfall it was looking pretty tropical. They might have just called it a tropical storm back then.
Oh and I still dont see the flow around 94l weakening as fast as the models say so the north east still needs to watch kyle. I still see a track closer to the coast. If it could still be interesting. Remember the models have had a bias to the right with this thing the entire time.
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Oh and I still dont see the flow around 94l weakening as fast as the models say so the north east still needs to watch kyle. I still se a track closer to the coast. If it could still be interesting. Remember the models have had a bias to the right with this thing the entire time.


Do you think we've seen the worst of 94L here in Raleigh?


New HH almost ontask
Click to enlarge
Quoting Alockwr21:


Do you think we've seen the worst of 94L here in Raleigh?


I have. I've been outside the past hour walking someone from central campus to their side then walking back to my dorm all the way on the other side. Let me check but I dont think so.
Ok the winds should calm down by tomorrow afternoon. The rain should begin to lessen but if we get any breaks in the clouds in the dry slot then thunderstorms with tornadoes will be possible.
29.24 on the barometer here.... but it may not be calibrated..... thats about 987mb...... 6mb difference is pretty significant......


Presslord is getting soaked I bet :)
Click to enlarge
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I have. I've been outside the past hour walking someone from central campus to their side then walking back to my dorm all the way on the other side. Let me check but I dont think so.


Are you near carmichael Gym? I stayed at University Towers when I was at state.
Down here in the Savannah area it's just been overcast clouds and wind and cool temps.
Quoting Alockwr21:


Do you think we've seen the worst of 94L here in Raleigh?


Umm... No

We're just getting started. But has weakened a bit so just rain and breezy.
Has anyone noticed how small the dry slot has gotten?
Link

It's just a tiny little gap over eastern NC then the big band offshore. What's to stop it from moving onshore?
we got about 2.5" of rain in Myrtle.... we are definitely in the plus on rainfall for the year...... I just hope we get some good freeze's this winter.... or the mosquito's will be horrible next year!
Wow. This storm has had more of an effect than Tropical Storm Hanna. I got some flooding pictures from last night I'll post soon. We have yet to see the full impact from this storm. :).
Quoting Alockwr21:


Are you near carmichael Gym? I stayed at University Towers when I was at state.


UT is just down the road from me. I'm in sullivan.
I am out for the night.. we are either in a blog hole.. or eveyone went to bed...
I updated everything and will do it again in the morning
I'm going for blog hole or we're all watching the tornado thing on Discovery.
tap...tap...is this mic on?
I'm still here...watching "The Christmas Story" on DVD..lol.
Quoting violet312s:
tap...tap...is this mic on?


Mic's working violet, just wasn't paying attention. Slipped away to get a little work done cause I got tired of watching little google-earth airplanes.

Checking in from time to time to see if SJunkie shows up with an update.

-rob
Aye, still here! Just looking at some Sat images... planning my weekend! LOL
most convection 94 has had around its center all day! LOL

Better late than never? :D

Quoting Beachfoxx:
Aye, still here! Just looking at some Sat images... planning my weekend! LOL


Got a couple more clear days in the up 80s and lows in 60s before It gets all tropical on us again in central FL.

I might actually get to play outside this weekend.

-rob
LOL. Cracking up that the only ones up are the NC/SCers. Just started getting wind/rain here. Very tame compared to Isabel. But then again Isabel was a Cat 2/3.

I'm geeking out on the Tornado Rampage on Discovery. Can't shake my tornado alley roots I guess.
Quoting violet312s:
LOL. Cracking up that the only ones up are the NC/SCers. Just started getting wind/rain here. Very tame compared to Isabel. But then again Isabel was a Cat 2/3.

I'm geeking out on the Tornado Rampage on Discovery. Can't share my tornado alley roots I guess.


ok violet.... you made me switch to discovery! LOL
Hey we got down to 57 or close, last night! It was glorious. Should have low's in the 60's, with high around 83 for weekend. Posted a couple of pics on my blog of the beach today. A "picture perfect" day! : )
Quoting RobDaHood:


Got a couple more clear days in the up 80s and lows in 60s before It gets all tropical on us again in central FL.

I might actually get to play outside this weekend.

-rob
Errr..we have tornado warnings in the Raleigh-Durham area. Did BF turn the radio off? (he's prone to that)
Tornado warning NE of Goldsboro, NC.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey we got down to 57 or close, last night! It was glorious. Should have low's in the 60's, with high around 83 for weekend. Posted a couple of pics on my blog of the beach today. A "picture perfect" day! : )


Yeah, I'm lovin' it. Even put a slight damper on the mosquitos last couple days. Seems like for the last two months it has either been steamy-hot or pouring rain every weekend.
Tornado warning in Raleigh???
Quoting Alockwr21:
Tornado warning in Raleigh???


Nope. Check noaa.gov and then click on "Active Weather Alerts" and then on our area. Then you can see the warnings.

The Goldsboro warning just expired. But we're in a large storm band right now.
wind gust of 51mph in myrtle......
Quoting Alockwr21:


Awesome pictures! We're getting ready to head down to Nassau on Sunday, it'll be my first time. I went to the Turks and Caicos two years ago...an absolutely stunning place for those who never been. I agree, the beaches in Wilmington aren't the prettiest by any means...Wrightsville Beach is a nice, sort of private spot. If you ever get the chance you should really check out Bald Head Island. A certain amount of land was set aside during the development stages, to insure that the wild life would remain. Just a huge Maritime forest; alligators are pretty common there however.
I've been on a flyover of Bald Head - we only had a weekend, so the ferry trip over was out - but I stayed on Wrightsville Beach.

I think for just about anybody from the Caribbean, NC beaches present a very different mystique from our own. The "wowsa" quality of our own beaches become the norm, to the point where pink sand (or powdered-sugar white) is what sand is "supposed" to look like. My recollection of Wrightsville was more in the power of the ocean rolling right to the very foot of the beach. We front the same ocean, but the power of it on the beaches here seems relatively muted because the really good ones mostly face inward, towards the shallow seas for which we are justly famous. When one considers that some of the waves that roll up on NC beaches have travelled the ATL unimpeded from the Straits of Gibraltar, it does emphasise the power of the waves and help to explain why coastal erosion is such a powerful force there.
Violet

Link


639. RobDaHood We are going to find a nice place to drop an anchor, grill a steak & spend the night on the boat.... prob. Saturday. This is the best time of year hear on Panhandle. October & May are the best months weatherwise, IMHO! LOL
Beachfoxx...noticed right after I posted that they extended the tornado warning.

Hope it's just a doppler indicated and not real.

Think I'll be up for at least the next hour. Large band going through now.
Violet,

Here is an excellent site for the quickest up to date warnings... IMO.

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Quoting violet312s:


Nope. Check noaa.gov and then click on "Active Weather Alerts" and then on our area. Then you can see the warnings.

The Goldsboro warning just expired. But we're in a large storm band right now.


I was thinking about that earlier when I saw some of the stronger cells in that band to the north. It's been my experience with tropical storms that the severe weather is often well away from the center. wondered if this storm would be the same way.. Yall stay safe tonight.
Beachfoxx...noaa.gov is pretty darned fast. They pop the warnings about 30 seconds after my weather radio goes off. Don't go by the graphics...click on your area for latest updates. The graphics tend to lag about a few minutes.
644. Beachfoxx

Steak on the boat...sounds like the perfect plan...enjoy!
643. BahaHurican
Quoting Alockwr21:


Kinda quite here... so quick funny story. When my son was about 15 he wanted to go to the east coast surfing. Growing up in Destin all he had ever seen was sugar white sand. So off to JAX & the Atlantic for the weekend. He & his friend, grab their boards and go running to beach.... ever see the Roadrunner do his screeching, eeerrkkk, brakes on stop??? LOL My son, stopped in his tracks & says " eewwww, yuk, the beach is really dirty!" LOL He had never seen dark sand before! : )
Violet,

I have NOAA, College of DuPage Meteorology, Weather Radio & Radar all going at same time when we have "bad" weather! LOL My husband calls me the "weather geek"!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
643. BahaHurican
Quoting Alockwr21:


Kinda quite here... so quick funny story. When my son was about 15 he wanted to go to the east coast surfing. Growing up in Destin all he had ever seen was sugar white sand. So off to JAX & the Atlantic for the weekend. He & his friend, grab their boards and go running to beach.... ever see the Roadrunner do his screeching, eeerrkkk, brakes on stop??? LOL My son, stopped in his tracks & says " eewwww, yuk, the beach is really dirty!" LOL He had never seen dark sand before! : )


That was my reaction to Miami and all the kelp. I grew up with Lake Michigan and lots of inland lakes. 5 years in Chicago my apartment had a full-on Lake Michigan view. Yes, I got spoiled.
Best Restaurant in town!!! Perfect weather... and "The World's Most Beautiful Beaches"...what more could you ask for? (quoting Chamber of Commerce) LOL
Quoting RobDaHood:
644. Beachfoxx

Steak on the boat...sounds like the perfect plan...enjoy!
Violet,

You HAVE got to visit our area!!! You will love it!
People at work know I'm a weather geek. They'll shout out "What's the weather going to be like this weekend?". I respond with temps, humidity and potential fronts.

Fortunatey I'm at a high enough level they have to put up with me :)
LOL Understand that! I get alot of that at the office, especially during tropical season. And they have to put up w/ me too! he! he! he!
Quoting violet312s:
People at work know I'm a weather geek. They'll shout out "What's the weather going to be like this weekend?". I respond with temps, humidity and potential fronts.

Fortunatey I'm at a high enough level they have to put up with me :)
Quoting Beachfoxx:
643. BahaHurican
Quoting Alockwr21:


Kinda quite here... so quick funny story.


That's funny!

kinda like when I was a teenager, I had a St.Bernard that was quite the water dog. Stayed in the lake half her life. One day we took her to the beach and she runs off charging into the water lapping away. Slams on the breaks, shakes her head and looks at me like "what the heck did you do to the lake?"

-rob
Lots of nasty weather going on here in Raleigh..
Definitely more of an impact than Hannah..
Quoting Beachfoxx:
643. BahaHurican
Quoting Alockwr21:


Kinda quite here... so quick funny story. When my son was about 15 he wanted to go to the east coast surfing. Growing up in Destin all he had ever seen was sugar white sand. So off to JAX & the Atlantic for the weekend. He & his friend, grab their boards and go running to beach.... ever see the Roadrunner do his screeching, eeerrkkk, brakes on stop??? LOL My son, stopped in his tracks & says " eewwww, yuk, the beach is really dirty!" LOL He had never seen dark sand before! : )
LOL - sounds familiar! When I went to Myrtle Beach some years ago on a first trip with a college friend, my friend drew my attention to a pile of (what to me was) brown dirt sitting in a corner by a pay phone with the words "Oh, look! Sand!" I looked around, clueless, going, "Where?" I'd never seen brown sand before either, and I'd been out of college for quite a few years. . . lol
Right, I'm really gone now. I gotta be up and out of my house in less than 5 hours. . . lol

ALock & Violet, stay safe!! I hate tornadoes! So quick, violent...

LOL I had a Jack Russel, who loved the beach... until she bit into a Jelly Fish!
Quoting RobDaHood:


That's funny!

kinda like when I was a teenager, I had a St.Bernard that was quite the water dog. Stayed in the lake half her life. One day we took her to the beach and she runs off charging into the water lapping away. Slams on the breaks, shakes her head and looks at me like "what the heck did you do to the lake?"

-rob
Night Baha!
I'm off for the night. Will post if we get warnings.

Take care all :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Right, I'm really gone now. I gotta be up and out of my house in less than 5 hours. . . lol


Goodnight Baha!
Quoting violet312s:
I'm off for the night. Will post if we get warnings.

Take care all :)


Night...stay safe and dry.
Night everyone....
Quoting Alockwr21:
Lots of nasty weather going on here in Raleigh..


Looks like it will start slacking off for you pretty soon. The worst of that heavy band has just passed over the Raleigh area and storm cells seem to be weakening a little.

Are you N/S/E/or W of Raleigh?
Quoting RobDaHood:


Looks like it will start slacking off for you pretty soon. The worst of that heavy band has just passed over the Raleigh area and storm cells seem to be weakening a little.

Are you N/S/E/or W of Raleigh?


East..close to Knightdale...in Hedingham subdivision.
Quoting Alockwr21:


East..close to Knightdale...in Hedingham subdivision.


Okay, looks like you're about to slip inside of that band that's been making all the trouble. so things should improve soon. You could get some thunderstorm development in some the spotty showers later on, but you've probably made it through the worst part
If you're watching radar, theres an area between raleigh and rocky mount that could get nasty.
Quoting Alockwr21:
I'm still here...watching "The Christmas Story" on DVD..lol.
you'll shoot your eye our kid lol
Quoting tropics21:
you'll shoot your eye our kid lol


Got to love Ralphy. I'm out yall..stay safe.
Quoting tropics21:
you'll shoot your eye our kid lol


LOL haven't seen that in ages!
Guess I haven't looked at a wind shear map in a day or two. No wonder these storms stayed away from Florida this week. ;o)
40-60 kt shear and building.

-rob
000
WTNT41 KNHC 260903
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB SLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 63 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A
47-KT SURFACE WIND. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 50 AND 53 KT
WERE MEASURED BENEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO A BLEND
OF THESE VALUES YIELDS AN AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 50
KT. THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 997 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE THAT WAS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE.

RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE MOTION IS NOW
350/10 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KYLE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK
IS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE POINT OF RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. 00Z
UPPER-AIR HEIGHT DATA FROM BERMUDA WAS IN ERROR TO DUE A BAD
BASELINE...BUT THE 00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FILTERED OUT THIS
ERRONEOUS MASS FIELD DATA. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA WAS GOOD...AND
THE BACKING WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INDICATES THAT
RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. ALSO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. AND A MUCH LARGER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AZORES.
SINCE OMEGA BLOCKS ARE GENERALLY STABLE PATTERNS...THE MODELS MAY
BE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA TOO QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PREMATURE RECURVATURE BY
THE MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS. SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE U.S. CAPE COD AREA
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL
RUNS. ONLY THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP KYLE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THE
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE%
And finally, I know a lot of people have expressed concern that some models have been developing a storm near Campeche. Here's the latest:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD STILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

GOM WV Loop

Pretty much jives with what I've been seeing on SAT and Wind maps. I don't see it as any immediate threat (except for rain as mentioned above)- just something to keep an eye on.

-rob
Maybe some of the billions earmarked for the super rich on Wall Street who have caused a near depression in this country through financial fraud and speculation should be ear-marked for hurricane relief in Galveston. But, of course, as always other working people are made to feel guilty if they don't dig into their own pockets in an effort the government should be responsible for - that is, taking care of everyday people in this country.

As for rebuilding even better - another continuously heard mantra - we better start s saving for the next round of destruction we will all be asked to contribute for, too.
Regarding the WunderPoll - this is the wrong question. No, the government should not be able to 'sieze' property that is between low and high tide water marks. The government should buy out those people and see that they are re-established in a nearby area on higher ground less prone to storm surge and compensated fully for the property and relocation.

I know where 700 billion is available.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's what J.B. at Accuweather says:

FRIDAY 1 AM TROPICAL STORM ASHORE AT MYRTLE BEACH...


I have to laugh...if he was working with me, and he didn't follow along like a good sheep, he would be told that he wasn't being a "team player". Nice to hear someone stand up, and fight, although I'm sure he won't get the credit he deserves, from the sheepherders.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's what J.B. at Accuweather says:



AccuWeather's content that you posted is copyrighted material that requires a subscription. If you want to selectively quote to make a point, that is one thing, but cutting and pasting an entire copyrighted blog post is wrong and illegal.
Hi all ... did anyone else notice that the label on the satellite graphic for Invest 94l shows Invest 93 ??
Quoting scaldisnoel:
Plus, to show that JB is an idiot, it would be Laura, NOT Lili.
Sorry, somehow the bottom of the 5am discussion got cut off and won't let me edit.

Here's what's missing:

ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THE
VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE
REACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FAST
FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE HWRF MODEL.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 25.6N 68.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 27.5N 68.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 30.5N 69.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 34.0N 69.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 38.5N 69.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 45.7N 66.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 30/0600Z 51.0N 61.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
120HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Morning all.

Kyle's going off surfing at least... and 94L doesn't become Laura.

My gut is right so far, clever boy. -hopes it stops being right...-
Quoting hunkerdown:
Plus, to show that JB is an idiot, it would be Laura, NOT Lili.


The AccuWeather and Joe Bastardi bashing in these comment threads is getting really old and doesn't add to the discussion of tropical activity. If you have a disagreement with JB or AW, then point it out, but no need to bash either.
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning all.

Kyle's going off surfing at least... and 94L doesn't become Laura.

My gut is right so far, clever boy. -hopes it stops being right...-


Morning Cotillion!
Hey StormW

How do you like that wall of shear across the GOM. At least some folks will get a much deserved break for a day or two!

-rob
Good morning... fellows...
accu weather whos joe b? kidding nhc is not all that bad still think they should of upgrade ike to major status for pychological reasons.
Hi StormW...
Storm: Any words of wisdom on the Western Caribbean system?
Quoting StormW:
692. RobDaHood 6:45 AM EDT on September 26, 2008
Hey StormW

How do you like that wall of shear across the GOM. At least some folks will get a much deserved break for a day or two!

-rob


Now that's kickin'! Yeah, someone needs a break...been crazy. Can you shoot me a test email?

Thanks!


Done, Took a while to load though. Blog is kinda flakey today.
Quoting DrBobLade:
Storm: Any words of wisdom on the Western Caribbean system?


I won't a expect any major development in this area until Sunday night into Monday where she should starting seeing things taking shape... this area could still be there in the BOC or it could relocate to the NW Carib.

Of course that's if it holds together... otherwise, basically just rain. Hehe...
Quoting StormW:
I'll have to take a look at it during analysis...I know yesterday, the shear forecast maps indicated that upper level winds were supposed to become favorable over the next few days.


Storm: Do you have a good link for the shear charts? TIA?
94L went easy on the severe weather last night.
Just one preliminary tornado report:


2015 5 E SNEADS FERRY ONSLOW NC 3455 7729 PUBLIC REPORTED TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR ONSLOW BEACH. (MHX)



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z


...ERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY WNWWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN
CAROLINAS. MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED WWD ABOVE A
SHALLOW STABLE LAYER REINFORCED BY ONGOING RAIN...BUT THE TRUE
COASTAL FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS ERN NC NWD INTO SERN VA. THE
ADVECTION OF 70S DEWPOINTS INLAND SHOULD RESULT IN 500-1000 MUCAPE
IN WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING OCCURS. HODOGRAPHS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT TREND SHOULD BE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WWD.


Columbia Radar:




Storm rainfall totals so far.....2 to 3 inches along the coastal areas. I'm sure there were higher isolated reports:


Photobucket




Its quite wet on Long Island right now, at last check we were approaching 2 inches of rain. In our NWS Discussion it says to watch Kyle very closely as they think it will trend a bit more west
Seems the NHC has got a 'circle' around the BoC disturbance, but with it moving into the Yucatan, and that wall of shear to the north of it which only gets worse, nothing should occur.

MJO's still favourable until mid October I think, so may well get Laura in the next couple of weeks.

'Course, all eyes on Kyle to see if it hits anywhere. We can all hope he follows Josephine's footsteps and avoids land...
Quoting StormW:
Cotillion,

Good morning!

mail.


Back at ya.

Just wanted to stop by before I get some breakfast and take some time to do a complete site update.

To be honest, I never expected that Invest 93L would develop into Tropical Storm Kyle as I thought the Carolina coastal storm would have injested it into the system. Came to be a real surprise to me yesterday that Kyle had formed, but now that it has formed, it looks decent for a tropical storm. Still fighting some shear, but convection has been wrapping around the circulation to the north. I will be very interested in watching when this potential recurvature towards the northeast around high pressure will occur as most computer models are forecasting.

In my opinion, Invest 94L looked as though it had obtained enough tropical characteristics to be named Subtropical/Tropical Storm Laura an hour before moving ashore in the Carolinas. Before making landfall, deep convection did develop and wrap around the circulation. This would be indicative of tropical characteristics with a system.

Seems like throughout the season, the CMC has been performing well in terms of tropical cyclogenesis, but not strength, as it appears that something has started to develop in the Bay of Campeche as the CMC model had been showing two days ago. It will be interesting to see what occurs once it crosses the Yucatan as shear forecasts indicative somewhat favorable shear in the Western Caribbean and water temps are very warm and have recovered from Gustav and Ike. But, for right now, not expecting much until it crosses over the Yucatan, if it even survives.
Some more radar storm total estimates:

Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

Quick little tropical update...Link
713. zymog
Topical Storm Kyle forms, and heads towards Nova Scotia

From blog title

"Topical" Storm. Apply directly to the forehead.

Sorry couldn't resist.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

MON-THURS...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. GFS HAS BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE AID OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES AND DRAGGING IT ACROSS THE STATE TUES INTO TUES NIGHT.
HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SOLUTION WITH ECMWF
NOT IN AGREEMENT. WILL KEEP POPS AT 50 PERCENT TUES SINCE IT IS
STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT IF GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE
LIKELY WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS THEN MAY NEED TO RAISE RAIN
CHANCES.

715. IKE
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD STILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KYLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008


LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE SYSTEM OVER THE
CAROLINAS EJECTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY...LEAVING A SURFACE
TO UPPER TROF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN STATES. A STRONG
SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES MEANWHILE AND
EVOLVES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW. SMALL POPS RETURN GENERALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW ADVANCES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING FRONT FROM
THE CANADIAN SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2008


.LONG TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND A WEAK WAVE OR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MAY FORM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. ANY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS...AND THE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY RAIN.



The GFS rumblings about a low in the Gulf next week are now being discussed by some of the local offices as it is within their long-range now.

we'll see what happens.
710. cchsweatherman

I don't see the Campeche storm really being a player at this point. That Big wall of dry air and shear doesn't seem to be going anywhere soon, in fact it still seems to be advancing rather forcefully to the south, which means that disturbance can't cut the corner of the Yucatan, it's gonna have to go all the way across. Anything that survives that shouldn't be real organized and then it's gonna have to deal with Cuba.

I think it all comes down to timing issues as 94L and Kyle move out, how that effects the frontal boundary, etc. Interesting how all the models handle it though, some just disapate it , some move it out across Cuba or FL rather quickly without time to organize, one that I saw even had it orbiting over the Yucatan for a couple days - looked kinda strange.

719. Vero1
For those that plot the Tropics:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM KYLE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 68.3W OR ABOUT 445 NM
SSW OF BERMUDA AT 26/0900 UTC MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KYLE CONTINUES EXPERIENCE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FLARE UP
CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
22N63W TO 28N68W.

THE NON-TROPICAL 995 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE DANGER GRAPHIC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE N
PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
POSITION CONTINUES TO BE MOSTLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AS MOST OF
THE WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA
AND NE COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS NO LONGER
EFFECTING THE ATLC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 14N15W 14N26W 12N34W 13N43W 9N52W
9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM
N OF THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SENEGAL AFRICA. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 20W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E US AND GULF N OF 25N EXTENDING
INTO THE W ATLC. DRY STABLE UPPER AIR COVERS THE N GULF FROM
CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG 25N89W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N87W OVER S FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES
INCLUDING S MEXICO...THE YUCATAN....AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
N GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF
85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER PUERTO RICO COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE W ATLC FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
KEEPING THE AREA FROM 65W-85W REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN THIS
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE W ATLC THIS MORNING IS T.S. KYLE...SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE DEEP LAYERED OVER THE E US AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 72W DRAWING THE
DRY STABLE AIR FROM THE N GULF ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 29N W OF 74W AND INTO THE 995 MB LOW INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N74W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W THEN
WEAKENING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT S OF 27N INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST NEAR VERO BEACH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OVER T.S. KYLE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER PUERTO RICO TO 32N63W COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. THE WEAK CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT WAS
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS S TO 17N BETWEEN 38W-58W WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG 32N40W TO 29N49W TO 29N53W WEAKENING AS
IT CONTINUES NW TO BEYOND 32N57W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S AND E OF THE
FRONT E OF 53W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC N OF 26N E OF
30W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH A WEAK 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 31N24W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N FROM 17W-24W.
THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 42W
ALONG 16N AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND FURTHER N AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

$$
WALLACE
721. IKE
Long-term from Tallahassee,FL...'

"Tuesday night through Wednesday night...the models show a dry cold
front approaching and pushing through the local area from northwest
to southeast. Plenty of cold air advection and fairly light
northerly winds depicted in the models could lead to the low
temperatures dropping into the lower 50s and possibly into the 40s
over portions of the area by the end of the upcoming week.
"

Here's the link to the AMS Glossary that stormmaven mentioned:


The Glossary of Meteorology purports to define every important meteorological term likely to be found in the literature today. It attempts to present definitions that are understandable to the generalist and yet palatable to the specialist; and it intends to be a reference book that satisfies its user in a minimum of his time.

The collecting of terms appearing in the Glossary began in 1952 with an exhaustive survey of the literature of the preceding five years. This list, plus previous collections (especially Weather Glossary, U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, 1946; and Meteorological Glossary, His Majesty’s Stationery Office, MO 225 ii, 1939 reprinted 1953), provided the platform on which the final product was assembled. In the subsequent years many of the original terms were deleted and many more added, resulting in a final count of 7247 entries. By far the majority of these terms are from the mainstream of meteorological nomenclature: synoptic, dynamic, and physical meteorology, theoretical and applied; climatology; and meteorological instrumentation. Most of the remainder are drawn from sister disciplines such as hydrology, oceanography, geomagnetism and astrophysics; some come from the basic sciences of physics and chemistry; some from applicable portions of mathematics, statistics, and electronics; and others from the folk language of weather lore through many ages. It may be argued, favorably or unfavorably, that this book is as much a glossary “for meteorologists” as “of meteorology.”

Good morning from Ilm
The sun is peeking through broken clouds and the wind is about 20 from the south.
Hanna and 94 took about the same track in relation to my place and I must say Hanna was much stronger. She had winds in the 50 to 60 range and 94 was 25 to 40 ... 94 had 6.5 in of rain while Hanna was 1.3 in.. Had no surge from Hanna but 94 gave me 2 feet...Hanna's center was about 30 miles closer and both passed to my south.
When I went to bed last night 94 was raising H#*@ with Myrtle Beach...any reports from there this A.M?
Quoting IKE:
Kyle taking his clothes off.


Didn't we have an elaborate plan about how only the "girl" storms were gonna do that?

Wierd stuff happens when you party nekkid!

-rob
Quoting RobDaHood:


Didn't we have an elaborate plan about how only the "girl" storms were gonna do that?

Wierd stuff happens when you party nekkid!

-rob

Hey Rob...do you ever sleep?
Quoting MissNadia:

Hey Rob...do you ever sleep?


Combination of being self=employed and vampire genes!

Was up working all night, probably nap for an hour or 2 and go at it again.

Quoting RobDaHood:


Didn't we have an elaborate plan about how only the "girl" storms were gonna do that?

Wierd stuff happens when you party nekkid!

-rob


Someone's blasting the 'Full Monty' theme tune somewhere in the Atlantic...
730. IKE
Kyle....

Quoting StormW:

LMAO!


Sometimes that's all you can do!
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast
733. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast


TAZ...you said there wouldn't be any more named storms after IKE(Josephine had already died).

How would you like your crow?
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast


I wouldn't be so sure about that.
733. IKE 5:23 AM PDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast


TAZ...you said there wouldn't be any more named storms after IKE(Josephine had already died).

How would you like your crow?


LOL
Good morning all!
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Good morning all!


G'morning.

And you are so going down on Monday. :D
LOL!!!!
Quoting Cotillion:


I wouldn't be so sure about that.


Yeah, but we probably get a couple days off at least, so let us dream and think happy thoughts!

MissNadia has thoughtfully reminded me that I've been staring at computer screens for entirely too long, so I'm gonna take a break and then try to make some money so I can justify goofing off and enjoying this cool weather this weekend.

For my friends enduring the "Magical Mystery Storm" (94L) stay safe and hopefully it's outta there soon!

-rob
Back now after performing a complete CCHS Weather Center site update. I have updated the Florida forecasts and my Tropical Update page.

741. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
733. IKE 5:23 AM PDT on September 26, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast


TAZ...you said there wouldn't be any more named storms after IKE(Josephine had already died).

How would you like your crow?


LOL



I'll get the grill fired up....lol......
You guys forget the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin was in October (Wilma). It moved into the GOM and hit S.W. Florida in late October as a Cat 3.

Right, as I mentioned my gut saying Kyle was going to go for a swim in the Atlantic... (It's been oddly good all year, though it totally missed Ike.)

So, using CBFS (Crystal Ball Forecasting System), I say:

Laura for the Gulf as either a weak TS, or a major 'cane. (For some reason, I just think it'll be one or the other. Depends what time of the month it is... *ducks*)

Marco's going to go for a paddle in the Caribbean, maybe a minimal 'cane.

Nana likes what Kyle did, and will hang around PR and Hispaniola for a spot of sight seeing. Not much from that 'cept rain.

I'd like to order my crow in advance, fried with a BBQ sauce marinade, served with chargrilled peppers, if you please. :)

Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast



H.S.I.O. LOL , I've heard that before :)
Spinning the globe to the other side, there is a massive typhoon in the Western Pacific named Jangmi. Based upon the forecast track, it seems like this could take a path very similar to Hagupit from just days ago. Its expected to reach Category 4 strength before slowly weakening approaching Taiwan and the Southeast China coast as a minimal Category 3 or upper Category 2 storm. In translating the current satellite image, this storm is larger than Ike was and would engulf (no pun intended) the Gulf of Mexico.

God bless those in the path and may they seek safe shelter and refuge from this beast.

I would say gettng a major hurricane to hit the N.W. Gulf Coast is starting to look unlikely.
But I think the rest of the GOM is still open for business. (From New Orleans and points East).
wind shear in the gulf this am are up too 70kt or higher
Good morning everyone...
Appears the blog is moving to winter mode. Quiet as can be.
Quoting conchygirl:
Appears the blog is moving to winter mode. Quiet as can be.


At least the *thing* will be done in November.

So, we may be able to avoid the P-word all winter...
g'morning all.

I have friends driving from Boston to DC and back again over the next few days. They expect some issues with Kyle as they return to Boston on Sunday. What should they expect from 94L as they travel south this afternoon?

TIA
752. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear in the gulf this am are up too 70kt or higher


Really blowing that Flock of Seagulls around.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast

Taz - sure hope you are right!
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast
from your keyboard to mother natures ears...hope your correct Taz..hopefully our island friends dont have to deal with none either.
Quoting IKE:
Kyle taking his clothes off.


Now Ike, lol no peeking.
756. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Now Ike, lol no peeking.


No....only the ladies. LOL.
With a close pass to cape cod,I'm hoping Kyle keeps this structure.
758. Vero1
Quoting IKE:



I'll get the grill fired up....lol......
Recipes are on my blog; But for any one I like the first one the best.
Quoting NEwxguy:
With a close pass to cape cod,I'm hoping Kyle keeps this structure.
Did the forecast change any for you up there yet NEwxguy? Now they are saying 6 to locally 8 inches of rain and as per our forecast discussion:
BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE
SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE 5AM ADVISORY. DEFINITELY
STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Kyle is having a worse time with dry air then wind shear currently, although they are both doing a number on him this morning. He has begun the NNW movement now. Within the next 24 hours Kyle could strengthen to a hurricane which is not impossible, although not as likely until his center is under the convection. Also Hurricane WIlma was a category two hurricane passing to my SE in late October.
So...there are now some other areas of interest being monitored.

It looks like we'll see an upswing in activity over the next few weeks.

This one caught my eye.

*
oops...image didn't display.

Here's the link: NGP
And, at the same time, this one could get interesting: GFS
Quoting Engine2:
Did the forecast change any for you up there yet NEwxguy? Now they are saying 6 to locally 8 inches of rain and as per our forecast discussion:
BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE
SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE 5AM ADVISORY. DEFINITELY
STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


their saying 3 to 5,maybe 6,as far as kyle,its going to be close so have to be careful with this
Happy Friday...
Hope everyone is doing well.

Hello Kyle. Looks pretty benign today. I was surprised to hear on the news last night that he was named... Still wish they would track this Nor'Easter type-deal thingy thats reeking havok in S/N Carolina, respectively. (not to mention the entire NE). Looks like this "nice" little system is ushering out the summer and in the fall for us up here. I think 2008 should go down in history as the year of unconventional storms. Some are saying the Gulf is out of the woods for the year... remember how strange its been, folks... I wouldnt rule out a hurricane in Arizona in December after the kooky storm season this year!!! Try not to poke fete in the butt...it tends to bite back!
Blue skys here in New Bern. Nicest and calmest its been in days.
Complete Update
All Systems ... Atlantic
New York ... Kyle ... complete with Models
New York ... Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
New York ... Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Carols System ... 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex
CMC 00Z..
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast
GOD HAS SPOKEN
ssslllooooww today
According to the CMC if it were not for the shear right now, the BOC and Caribbean would be firing off new systems like crazy. Instead its going to take 4-5 days for the shear to decrease.. then they will start.
Quoting LakeShadow:
ssslllooooww today


When do we start doing the snow storm math again?
Quoting Orcasystems:


When do we start doing the snow storm math again?


after the first significant snowfall.(enough to shovel and stays put from dusk to dawn of vise/verse)..usually happens around mid November but can come as early as mid October or as late as mid December... I'm guessing early November this year.
Quoting Orcasystems:


When do we start doing the snow storm math again?


Please no snow talk yet the season is long enough
Quoting LakeShadow:


after the first significant snowfall.(enough to shovel and stays put from dusk to dawn of vise/verse)..usually happens around mid November but can come as early as mid October or as late as mid December... I'm guessing early November this year.


Are you going to put up a blog this time.. explaining the math, so we can keep track of it better this year?

Then we can track it? I know I would like to see it.
mistake
Quoting NEwxguy:


Please no snow talk yet the season is long enough


We have a little more than a month to go...not so far off.
Quoting Orcasystems:


yup. This time I'm going to keep a daily log. Anyone from any city can pipe in and I'll post their stats up, too. Kind of wanted to just introduce the idea last year, but I'll be snow-counting as many cities as possible this year.
dean2007

Check you blog. Idea for you book!

-rob
What do anyone think about the Bay of Campeche thing? Is it really going into Mexico? I am really not ready for another Gulf storm.
Quoting LakeShadow:


yup. This time I'm going to keep a daily log. Anyone from any city can pipe in and I'll post their stats up, too. Kind of wanted to just introduce the idea last year, but I'll be snow-counting as many cities as possible this year.

Count me in.. I am going for a zero again :)
Quoting carlakid50:
What do anyone think about the Bay of Campeche thing? Is it really going into Mexico? I am really not ready for another Gulf storm.


The BOC blob is trying desperately to start one in the BOC and or the Caribbean, just way to much shear right now.. if you look at the CMC, its trying to start systems in both areas almost hourly, but they get killed by the shear.
Quoting NEwxguy:
With a close pass to cape cod,I'm hoping Kyle keeps this structure.


I've experienced a few tropical storms on the Cape- lots of blowing sand!!!
check out my pictures- have some good ones from past nor easters on the Cape
781. vortfix 1:38 PM GMT on September 26, 2008

Good, we can use that area to compare to the math. I assume that is updated for each month in advance?
That is issued on a daily basis Orca.
Anyone else notice 96C? Anyone notice its eye-like feature?? Link
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP
G'mornin' all. Joey B. still not happy with the NHC this morn. I agree with him. We have seen the NHC name less deserving systems than the unnamed tropical strorm that made landfall on the Carolina coast last night. I doubt there's any "conspiracy" but their naming standards do appear to be arbitrary.
About HPC Winter Weather Forecast Products
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRODUCT DELIVERY SCHEDULE
The HPC Winter Weather Desk (WWD) is staffed two shifts a day
from Sept. 15 through May 15.

The WWD forecaster routinely releases updated forecasts twice daily
at 0900Z and 2100Z (4am/pm EST or 5am/pm EDT respectively).


Forecasts may be updated if warranted by rapidly changing situations.



AccuWeather's content that you posted is copyrighted material that requires a subscription. If you want to selectively quote to make a point, that is one thing, but cutting and pasting an entire copyrighted blog post is wrong and illegal


Get over it...
Quoting LakeShadow:
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP


ROFLMAO, the nice winters are only on the Southern Island here (we golf year round). BC interior winters can make yours look like Florida :) They even use stupid numbers like -40 and when you get to -40.. it doesn't matter if its C or F, they are both the same at that temp.

Quoting vortfix:
About HPC Winter Weather Forecast Products
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PRODUCT DELIVERY SCHEDULE
The HPC Winter Weather Desk (WWD) is staffed two shifts a day
from Sept. 15 through May 15.

The WWD forecaster routinely releases updated forecasts twice daily
at 0900Z and 2100Z (4am/pm EST or 5am/pm EDT respectively).


Forecasts may be updated if warranted by rapidly changing situations.





Thanks for the link.. will book mark that one.. I really don't want to start tracking snow until I have to.. still warm :)
Uhh, how slow!!!!! MY GOSH!!!! Things really are lagging in the tropics, but all things that begin must come to an end!!! things will pick up once again and it wont be very peaceful anymore!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:

Get over it...


That is just a wrong response.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO, the nice winters are only on the Southern Island here (we golf year round). BC interior winters can make yours look like Florida :) They even use stupid numbers like -40 and when you get to -40.. it doesn't matter if its C or F, they are both the same at that temp.



yes, the Maritimes are where the good weather is at! I guess I forgot to mention that I'll need a boat, too...
If you take a look at the water vapor loop, Kyle is helping to pump the moisture into the Northeast - Thanks Kyle

Link
Quoting... (And, at the same time, this one could get interesting: GFS)\

Very interesting, nice post!!!! I agree 100 % things are going to pick up slowly but surely!!




Quoting LakeShadow:
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP


Canada is indeed a beautiful country but you should know that there is no such thing as "free" anything. It all has to be paid for somehow, i.e. taxes. The health service in Canada is such that the hospitals just over the border in the US are full of Canadians who can't wait for their "free" service. The weather sucks too!
alrighty...gotta get going w/ the day... catch y'all later.
Quoting Engine2:
If you take a look at the water vapor loop, Kyle is helping to pump the moisture into the Northeast - Thanks Kyle

Link


Yeh,thats the biggest problem with kyle,between 94l and kyle,there's a chute opened up to the tropics,and there's a lot water headed our way.
Quoting LakeShadow:
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP


Nothing is free.
model consensus about development in the GOM is pretty good.
Some 430,000 Texas customers still without power
It's starting to get a little better on this front. Still a long way to go on others.
The link is a reuters news report.
Link
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well this am.

futuremet, got a link or two for those.. I need to pay attention to that
What is the forward speed expected of Kyle as he moves to the North?
recon finding 1007mb pressures
This from the 5 a.m report,shows alot of the uncertainty still with Kyle,will have to see at 11 a.m.

Although the models are tightly
clustered through 72 hours...there remains enough uncertainty in
exactly when and where the Point of recurvature will occur. 00z
upper-air height data from Bermuda was in error to due a bad
baseline...but the 00z models appear to have filtered out this
erroneous mass field data. However...the wind data was good...and
the backing wind flow from south to southeast indicates that
ridging coming in from the northeast is a little stronger than the
models have been forecasting. Also...all of the global and regional
models are forecasting an Omega blocking pattern to develop over
the central Atlantic between the low currently over southeastern
U.S. And a much larger low forecast to develop west of the Azores.
Since Omega blocks are generally stable patterns...the models may
be breaking down the northern portion of the ridge south of Nova
Scotia too quickly...which would result in premature recurvature by
the models. As a result...the official track forecast has been
shifted to the west of the previous track...and is close to the NHC
model consensus. Subsequent forecast tracks may also have to be
shifted a little farther west and closer to the U.S. Cape Cod area
similar to the 00z GFS...GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...and Canadian model
runs. Only the UKMET and ECMWF keep Kyle well to the east of the
northeastern U.S.
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:
Some 430,000 Texas customers still without power
It's starting to get a little better on this front. Still a long way to go on others.
The link is a reuters news report.
Link


Thank you for the link, trying to find any news about texas and whats going on is getting harder everyday.
Morning everyone!!! Nice and sunny here in P.R.
Is the blog slow this am or is everyone having trouble waking up? :-)
That NOAA RECON flight is at over 15,000 feet and has not yet arrived at Kile:


At 14:09:00Z (last observation), the observation was 112 miles (180 km) to the NE (53°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
Quoting LakeShadow:
Orca, you're in B.C., Right?

soo jealous! Nice place, from what I've heard. perfect climate there. Beautiful country...nice and "liberal" with the laws....free health care... I think if elections go bad again this year, I just might be BC bound. I'll make a swim for S. Ontario and catch the cross continental rails out west!
:oP



Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.

kyle is taking off his clothes
Quoting vortfix:
That NOAA RECON flight is at over 15,000 feet and has not yet arrived at Kile:


At 14:09:00Z (last observation), the observation was 112 miles (180 km) to the NE (53°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.


Quoting cellman007:



Don't let the door hit you on the butt on the way out.


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)
817. MahFL
Is Kyle actually move WSW ?
818. MahFL
Nice wx here in Jax.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)
Please don't judge us all by a few. LOL
TS Kyle:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 26:28:42 N Lon : 68:29:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -23.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Quoting conchygirl:
Please don't judge us all by a few. LOL


I don't.. I have seen and chatted with many nice people on here.. it just amazes me what some people think they have to say.
Interesting:

well orca, your comments about why you won't live in Florida were no different..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)


I assume you included mine. I'm not USA affiliated! Plus I'm not sure why you would take exception to what I posted.
Quoting indianrivguy:
well orca, your comments about why you won't live in Florida were no different..

Snakes.. gators..sharks...hurricanes, and old retired Canadians? Thats the same thing?

I stand corrected then :)
Morning All.

06ZGFS is showing a rather active CV wave train continuing until the middle of October and beyond.
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track


Can you get a refund? lol.
Quoting chrisrw:


I assume you included mine. I'm not USA affiliated! Plus I'm not sure why you would take exception to what I posted.


Actually, I shouldn't have brought it up at all. I just found it humorous that someone could make an observation, and three people would make statements about it.

I agree with what you said, other then the weather sucks part :) But you were right, I did count you as one of the three.

My apologies


re: hes going on a WSW track


HUH?? ^_^ jo
Orca, I was just making a comment so please take no offense, but as a Floridian, I remember your remarks..

wow, Kyle really IS nekkid.. the shear that had it flattened out is now unmasking it.
At 11AM, there is now a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. No change in strength and forward motion.
Quoting Orcasystems:


My apologies




Apology not necessary!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Orca, I was just making a comment so please take no offense, but as a Floridian, I remember your remarks..

wow, Kyle really IS nekkid.. the shear that had it flattened out is now unmasking it.


Kyle is actually starting to worry me.. if it keeps shifting west... its not going to be pretty. There is a substantially populated area it could make landfall at, if it shifts west. Its also where the CMC is pointing to.
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: hes going on a WSW track


HUH?? ^_^ jo


It looks like it on loops.
In watching the latest visible satellite imagery, you can see quite clearly how high pressure has been pushing on Kyle and been trying to force Kyle more westward over the past hour.
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track

WHAT??


Photobucket
Yea I'm starting to get a bit worried about this - we will have to see what the new models have at 2PM - also all the local mets where saying this would be out of here by Saturday Night now I see that Kyle will only be to my south by Sunday Morning.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In watching the latest visible satellite imagery, you can see quite clearly how high pressure has been pushing on Kyle and been trying to force Kyle more westward over the past hour.


Thanks CCHS...
re: It looks like it on loops.

not dissing you just kinda shocked...please tell me which loops, thanx jo
Wave in Atlantic trying to form LLC?

Quoting vortfix:
Just got tracking the Eye software for Kyle and it thinks hes going on a WSW track

WHAT??




The tracks are model tracks are shifting west a bit



Click to enlarge
Quoting Seastep:
Wave in Atlantic trying to form LLC?



Been watching that area for the past 24 hours as it has been looking better organized with decent convection and noticeable low-level circulation. I expect this to be designated Invest 95L within the next 24 hours.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
At 11AM, there is now a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. No change in strength and forward motion.


Kyle expected to pass about 270 nm to the west late Saturday a.m.

That puts a CAT 1 awfully close to Boston. So many people, so much water, plus the harbor. Worrying. Any tornadoes there would be ugly as well.
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: It looks like it on loops.

not dissing you just kinda shocked...please tell me which loops, thanx jo


I don't know... it just comes up with no logos or nothing.
Any jog or wobble to the west and it would effect a higher population of people. Then again any job or wobble to the east will reduce its impact on high population areas
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Can you get a refund? lol.


I'm on the free version...
Quoting Engine2:
Any jog or wobble to the west and it would effect a higher population of people. Then again any job or wobble to the east will reduce its impact on high population areas


I noticed your nick was in that last picture I posted..
It's interesting,yesterday NHC statements were pretty sure it was going east of the Cape,but now they are hedging their bets,its obviously a very fluid situation

hmmm
I found this for newbies like me and thought I would share in case anyone is interested.

Free Intro Met college level course from MIT
West and SSW are two different animals.

The current forward motion of Kyle is exactly what has been forecast by the NHC.
If he overshoots the forecast length of this current track then we will have an issue at the other end.
Right now he is on track.
Complete refresh.. off to work, back in an hour or so to refresh.

All Systems ... Atlantic
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Models
New York - NS ... Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
New York - NS ... Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
New York - NS ... Kyle ... predicted Landfall
Carols System ... 94L ... with Cloud Cover
Present Satellite picture BOC Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean
CMC & ... NY City/Maine
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean Part Duex

BTW, second HH just off the ground from St Croix into Kyle
The GOM definitely needs attention

12Z NAM now also develops a low there
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN HERTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 1145 AM EDT * AT 1056 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH OF MURFREESBORO...OR NEAR AULANDER...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MURFREESBORO BY 1125 AM EDT... COMO BY 1135 AM EDT...
Quoting vortfix:
West and SSW are two different animals.

The current forward motion of Kyle is exactly what has been forecast by the NHC.
If he overshoots the forecast length of this current track then we will have an issue at the other end.
Right now he is on track.


I agree,its doing what it is suppose to do,the real issue will be at the point it is suppose to start the recurve
new blog!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmm three responses to his remark.. all negative.. gotta love the good old USA :)



How is that negative???, he made the negative remark about the USA (I forget it's ok for liberals to and the rest of the world to bash the USA with no rebuttles allowed), I'm just saying GO IF WANT TO, nobody stopping him if he hates it here so much.
NEW BLOG