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Top weather story of 2008: Cyclone Nargis

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:04 PM GMT on January 05, 2009

The top weather story of 2008 has to be the catastrophic impact of Cyclone Nargis on the nation of Myanmar (formerly Burma). Nargis (the Urdu word for 'daffodil') hit the low-lying, densely populated Irrawaddy Delta region of Myanmar on May 2, 2008. Nargis' Category 4 winds of 135 mph brought a storm surge of up to 4 meters (13 feet) to the coast, inundating regions up to 40 km inland. At least 140,000 people perished, according to official estimates by the U.N. and the government of Myanmar. This makes Nargis the ninth deadliest cyclone in world history. The storm made 800,000 people homeless, destroying 450,000 homes. Approximately 2.4 million people were significantly affected by the cyclone, and total damage has been estimated at $4 billion.

Recovery from the cyclone will take years. The loss of livestock, buffalo for plowing, fishing nets, and boats was near total in many regions of the coast. Fallen trees still block many transportation routes, and the much of the rich farmland used to grow crops has been made salty by the inland penetration of Nargis' storm surge. About 30% of the villages in the devastated region still have a high proportion of their homes using plastic or canvas sheeting for roofs or walls, and undernutrition and lack of clean water are still problematic. However, international aid has made a big difference, and much of the affected area has benefited from the aid.

A once-in-500-year event for Myanmar?
Tropical cyclones are uncommon in Myanmar, which has had only six Category 1 or stronger storms since 1970, and eleven since 1948. Nargis is the third strongest cyclone on record to hit Myanmar, and the deadliest and most damaging. The previous highest death toll from a tropical cyclone in Myanmar was 187, during the Category 1 storm that hit on May 7, 1975. Nargis is the first major tropical cyclone to hit Myanmar since Category 3 Cyclone Mala hit on April 28, 2006. Mala hit a less populated area less prone to storm surge, and killed 22 people and damaged 6000 buildings. It is remarkable that no other tropical cyclone over the past 300 years has hit the Irrawaddy Delta and caused major loss of life. An unusually strong and far-southward extending trough of low pressure turned Nargis to the east much farther south than is the norm for the North Indian Ocean. In the pre-1970 years, there is only one hurricane-force storm recorded to have hit Burma, a Category 1 cyclone in 1936 that killed 36 people. A significant cyclone hitting the Irrawaddy Delta causing thousands of deaths would very likely have been recorded, had this happened any time in the past 300 years. Such events were recorded in both India and Bangladesh during that period. Nargis appears to have been the only major tropical cyclone to hit the Irrawaddy River Delta in recorded history, and may be a once-in-500-year event.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Nargis shortly before landfall. Image credit:NASA.

Nargis' storm surge
Nargis took the worst possible path, tracking right along the low-lying, heavily populated Irrawaddy River Delta. Moreover, the storm hit at high tide, greatly increasing the impact of the storm surge. Tidal range in the Irrawaddy River Delta is about five feet between low tide and high tide, and the death toll would have been much, much lower had the storm hit at low tide. Further amplifying the storm surge's height was the fact that Nargis was moving rather slowly--about 11 mph. Slow moving tropical cyclones can drive a much higher storm surge into narrow estuaries that connect to the ocean, since there is more time for the surge to penetrate inland. Nargis' track, forward speed, and high tide timing created a "perfect storm" able to cause an unprecedented storm surge in the Irrawaddy River Delta. The only saving grace was the relatively small size of the cyclone.

Human factors helped make the storm surge worse. About 80% of the mangrove forest along Myanmar's coast has been destroyed, to make room for rice paddies and shrimp farms. Mangroves--tall, gnarly, salt-tolerant trees--act to blunt and slow down the progress of the storm surge and reduce the wave action of the ocean. Had more mangroves been left to survive, the impact of the storm surge would have been lessened. How much so, no one can say, for there are few observations of the storm surge to verify models of this. Keep in mind that the mangroves are far more effective in protecting against a sudden, powerful wave like the 2004 tsunami, compared to the slower, hours-long inundation of a storm surge.


Figure 2. Topography of Myanmar, with track of Cyclone Nargis superimposed. Image credit: NASA.

Failure of the Myanmar government
Nargis was remarkable not only for its death toll, but for the failure of Myanmar's dictatorship to provide adequate warnings before the storm. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which is responsible for tropical cyclones warnings in the North Indian Ocean, classified Nargis as a "severe cyclonic storm" three days prior to landfall, and warned of landfall in Myanmar of Nargis as a Category 1 or 2 storm. However, the official state-controlled New Light of Myanmar newspaper carried this forecast the day before landfall: "the severe tropical cyclone NARGIS...is forecast to cross the coast during the next 36 hours...Under the influence of this storm, rain or thundershowers will be widespread...frequent squalls with rough seas will be experienced off and along the Myanmar coast. Surface wind speed in squalls may reach [50] mph." This forecast was buried on page 15 of the miscellaneous section of the newspaper. No mention of hurricane-force winds or of Nargis' storm surge was made. However, the IMD does not make forecasts of storm surge, which is something that needs to be corrected in the future, according to an excellent assessment of Cyclone Nargis published in Nature by Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech. Dr. Webster also advocates that a relatively small investment by the developed world in improved warning systems and shelters for the region can dramatically lower death tolls and the money needed for aid responses for future storms. Sounds like a great investment to me!

Finally, Nargis was also remarkable for the initial refusal of Myanmar's government to allow foreign aid into the country after the storm. Over a week passed before significant aid was allowed in, which greatly exacerbated the suffering of the storm victims and undoubtedly led to a higher death toll.

Nargis links
Post-Nargis Joint Assessment (July 2008).
Post-Nargis Periodic Review I (December 2008).
Nature paper by Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech (July 2008).

My next blog post will be Wednesday or Thursday, when I'll continue to report on the major weather and climate events of 2008.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. M. Wow, that was a bad storm!
An incredible number of people who have lost their lives to storm surge there. Tragic and a serious lesson on preparing for the unexpected.
Dr. Masters Interview about the Devastation to Myanmar from Cyclone Nargis.

That was the storm of the century for them
Hey Patrap,
Great video on the storm and Jeff Masters.... It is amazing that even more people didnot lose there lives from that storm..... Thank You for all you do and a special Thanks to Dr. Masters for a job well done....

I Look forward to seeing everybody again this year and what Hurricane season brings us....

Nothing I hope..... I wish they would all be fish storms this year....

Taco :0)
Verrry quiet in here again today - guess everybody had to go back to work!

Hello everyone --

The worst part of this storm was how the government set up the press, showing how they were taking care of the people at a few pre staged events, while those inland were suffering.

2008 Arctic Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979.

Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.


Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.

http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834
Quoting CajunSubbie:
2008 Arctic Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979.

Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.


Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.

http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834


Wow! Very informative!
Posts 7 and 8.
Be aware that the topic there is SEA ICE.
This does not include Land Ice, which is still showing a marked decrease in volume. Also, there is no data there for the thickness of the sea ice.
It would be interesting to see that.
I updated my Weather Blog today if anyone would like to view...

TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
Hey Pottery - good point.
pottery, I am with you..... without having ALL the facts, how can you come to any conclusions?

I for one put my time and efforts into saying we ALL want clean air and clean water, instead of making the case one way or the other for GW. Even Dr. Masters is careful to say that the evidence is scarce or non-existent. But should this stop us from cleaning up the air or water? No it should not! Even if you think GW is a hoax, or GW is not man made, you still should be able to agree that clean air and clean water is VERY important!

As for Myanmar, I feel really badly for these poor people, many of whom probably had no idea the death and destruction that was facing them before Cyclone Nargis hit.

We are so lucky in this country, and many others, in that a rank amateur as myself has access to so much data to help keep my family and community safe. We truly are blessed!

However, the IMD does not make forecasts of storm surge, which is something that needs to be corrected in the future, according to an excellent assessment of Cyclone Nargis published in Nature by Dr. Peter Webster of Georgia Tech. Dr. Webster also advocates that a relatively small investment by the developed world in improved warning systems and shelters for the region can dramatically lower death tolls and the money needed for aid responses for future storms. Sounds like a great investment to me!



Sub: Cyclone warning for coastal Andhra Pradesh (Orange Message)

The cyclonic storm, KHAI MUK over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 15th November 2008

Storm surge 1-2 meter above the astronomical tide is likely at the time of landfall over coastal areas of Prakasham, Guntur, Krishna, west & east Godavari districts and Yanam.

---------------------------------------

The cyclonic storm, %u2018NISHA%u2019 over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hours IST of 27th November 2008

Storm surge of about 1.0 meter above the astronomical tide is likely over coastal areas of Thiruvalur and Nagapattinam districts of Tamil Nadu at the time of landfall.


----
Well looks like they got through to the India Meteorological Department with that suggestion =)

NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Thanks Dr. Masters for reminding us of how important getting information to the people is. the fact that not only did the Govet of Myanmar not warn their people, but stubbornly remained intractable for so long before letting aid workers and relief efforts in because of their shame re the state of the country brought on by their policy makes the whole thing even more hideous.

I know they are not people, but they are among the most gorgeous animals on earth and sited in a a very precarious place which received a major impact of the storm. Dr. Masters do you have any reports on the state of the world famous bengal tigers?? ( not the old football team!)
What also makes this the top weather event of 2008 is that it touched on the geopolitical climate of international aid and the willingness for the country in crisis to accept it.

The amount of time it took for relief to reach the people touched by this tragedy was far too long due to a multitude of issues. This aspect should not be overlooked.
17. DDR
Thats what happens when you live in 3rd world country,governments dont care,all they care is the money,not people.
SWFL Surf Alert -Gorgeous day after the morning fog burned off. A waveless day before things pick up mid week. Front not as strong as anticipated , but definitely a swell maker. Wind to start cranking from the south tomorrow. Gulf Temp 67

I'm so excited....but I'm still trying to figure out how to re-arrange barn work aughhhhhh
I for one put my time and efforts into saying we ALL want clean air and clean water, instead of making the case one way or the other for GW. Even Dr. Masters is careful to say that the evidence is scarce or non-existent. But should this stop us from cleaning up the air or water? No it should not! Even if you think GW is a hoax, or GW is not man made, you still should be able to agree that clean air and clean water is VERY important!

I so agree with this thinking - thank you!
23 trees planted so far in my lifetime -- 57 more to go
Quoting conchygirl:
Thanks for the update Dr. M. Wow, that was a bad storm!
never forget always remember a hurricane can strip the land of everything including all life and leave nothing behind but the dirt and water
Quoting surfmom:
I for one put my time and efforts into saying we ALL want clean air and clean water, instead of making the case one way or the other for GW. Even Dr. Masters is careful to say that the evidence is scarce or non-existent. But should this stop us from cleaning up the air or water? No it should not! Even if you think GW is a hoax, or GW is not man made, you still should be able to agree that clean air and clean water is VERY important!

I so agree with this thinking - thank you!
23 trees planted so far in my lifetime -- 57 more to go



actually....I just want cold beer...and a comfortable place to sleep....
that month (May) was crazy between Nargis and the Sichuan earthquake...
Quoting presslord:



actually....I just want cold beer...and a comfortable place to sleep....


without clean air and clean water, you can't have beer...
it sounds like what happened in myanmar is almost what happened here in the us after katrina.

i find it ironic that the us government critisized the myanmar government for not allowing foreign aid in but refused foreign aid (cuban doctors, venezuela oil, and russian heavy machinery) after katrina.

people in parts of mississippi and lousiana were weaiting days for help... all the while organizations like the red cross were trying to get in, only to be blocked by fema red tape.

sad that things like that happen in 3rd world nations like myanmar. even sadder that they still happen in places like the united states.
In Doc's blog, Dr. Webster reports "However, the IMD does not make forecasts of storm surge, which is something that needs to be corrected in the future.." Ironic, some experts here tragically underestimated the surge of Hurricane Ike, and people focused on the Category of the storm. Surge is the real killer.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
6:00 AM FST January 6 2009
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1002 hPa) located at 17.0S 161.0E. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C.

Cyclonic circulation is from low-mid level in a low to moderately sheared environment. Low level circulation center is exposed with convection displaced to the north

Global models (US/AVN/GFS) expects the system to move southeastwards with little intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains LOW.
Quoting hurristat:


without clean air and clean water, you can't have beer...


I'm OK with dirty beer....as long as it's cold....
Nargis was the biggest weather story of 2008, but the evil of the Myannmar regime in preventing aid from entering the country is inexcusable. Tens of thousands could have been saved had the regime allowed it. This story has been unreported and almost buried--good on Dr. Masters for bringing the Nargis story back!
Sugarsand, post 25.
I dont think there was ever any doubt, among the Experts, that the surge was going to be high, dangerous and potentially deadly.
Seems to me, that minor players, with all kinds of agendas got the thing screwed up.
Why were they never held accountable for the stupidity ??
Evening folks,

Does anyone remember this interview. It was just before Ike was making landfall. There was a remote interview to a bar. The interviewer was mostly talking to the bartender who was relaying the questions as best she could - they were partying pretty hard - and the noise level was high.
Lots of folks, looked to be 20ish. At one point the newsman told them that "certain death" was coming their way, and didn't that make anyone feel they should leave. The bartender just looked confused
I often think of them, does anyone know what happened?. I wish I could remember which news outlet it was.
Also, has anyone done a post Ike interview with the man in the bear costume?
Very often in history, the "lower classes" are considered expendable The "aristocratic military class" in Myanmar are myopic & narcissistic in their view of humanity -- those villages, those people, their lives meant absolutely nothing to the government or those in power.....as far as the government was concerned -- these people were peasants --what was the big deal? horrible --but true
re:29 -- Pottery I have a long list of Politicians, Banksters, and Corporate white collars that should be held accountable for their stupidity...
from my blog
Interesting Thought: "when you talk to children about their lives, whether they're in comfortable circumstances or dire circumstances, the notion of unfairness always comes up a lot. It's drilled into their heads how important it is to be fair, and then they watch things that aren't fair at all....If you behave well, you're not necessarily rewarded. And, if you misbehave you're not necessarily punished".....
.
There is a series of articles this week in The Economist about the sea---here is a link to the first article. I am not sure if just anyone can see this, since I am a subscriber. If you can't get the article up I have them all copied in my blog. If the articles do come up here I will provide links for them all: Link
North of San Francisco

by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

It is an area called The Geysers. This area is not unfamiliar to quake swarms. However, a recent escalation in magnitude has invited a heightened concern. A 4.2 magnitude quake occurred yesterday which is a triggering signal for seismologist to take note and monitor more closely.

Hundreds of small quakes measuring between .05 to 3.0 mag. have been rumbling for many days, but it is yesterday's 4.2 that has brought some attention to this area north of San Francisco.

The Geysers EQ List:

http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Maps/San_Francisco_full.html
Quoting pottery:
Sugarsand, post 25.
I dont think there was ever any doubt, among the Experts, that the surge was going to be high, dangerous and potentially deadly.
Seems to me, that minor players, with all kinds of agendas got the thing screwed up.
Why were they never held accountable for the stupidity ??
I seem to remember an experienced former NHC director turned local met came on Houston TV and stated Ike was a minimum cat2 and no big deal. But my memory is aging..
Posts 7 and 8...LOL, you didn't read STL's post on the previous blog, did you?

Nargis...what a terrible storm. Just goes to show that any area that has a very low risk, on any given year, of a catastrophic cyclone, will, with 100% probability, eventually get one.

Wow...I saw a vivid phenomenon in the clouds today. It's called cloud iridescence. There are four pictures in that article, I took the last two. Unfortunately, I didn't have my camera handy, but the iridescence I saw today was much more vivid than in the pictures. One cloud resembled a rainbow, but more vivid and brighter, with a band of red closest to the sun and a band of purple farther from it. Teal and pink were also present in the iridescence. It was with the same type of cloud as in those pictures: stratocumulus fractus.
Quoting pottery:
Sugarsand, post 25.
I dont think there was ever any doubt, among the Experts, that the surge was going to be high, dangerous and potentially deadly.
Seems to me, that minor players, with all kinds of agendas got the thing screwed up.
Why were they never held accountable for the stupidity ??

Well, the people "in charge" (local, state, and federal) during Katrina,never became accountable...just pointing fingers and passing the blame.

post 35 No, you are pretty accurate on that. We were caught off-guard when the surge came across the main artery road on Okaloosa Island....cars had to be re-routed all the way around the north side of the bay. And that storm was hundreds of miles off in the gulf.
That link worked fine, GAGuy. Thanks.
Good stuff there, but a lot of it can be seen as "hype", unfortunately.

I will post all the links to the Economist's articles about the sea in this week's issue here:

Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Link
Quoting sugarsand:

Well, the people "in charge" (local, state, and federal) during Katrina,never became accountable...just pointing fingers and passing the blame.


Whooo HOOO = great snipe!!
The video,taken from a series done after Cyclone Nargis at Irrawaddy Delta, Labutta
This is number 8 in the series.

It is very graphic and done immediately after the Cyclone Passed.
It shows clearly and graphically the Power of surge and how the poorest of the Poor were decimated by this Powerful Cyclone that inundated the Delta region.

Again it is stark and graphic,..and shows how quickly chaos reigns after such a devastating Storm.

Cyclone Nargis at Irrawaddy Delta Labutta-8 Link
San Fran./Geysers
The Geysers is a geothermal area in many ways like Yellowstone. As long as seismic and magma flow events remain nominal, it can be a great source of energy. However, if there is an escalation of earthquake activity, two possible hazards could occur. 1) Larger seismic events could 'trigger' surrounding tectonic fault lines creating the possibility of serious events. No place in the North American continent is more vulnerable to this scenario than California. 2) Magma reaches the surface destroying equipment and terrain, and no doubt other unexpected consequences.
Geothermal power is energy derived from the heat of the Earth's core. "Geo" means "from the Earth" and "thermal" means "heat." Located at The Geysers, molten rock, or magma, exists very deep in the Earth where temperatures are extremely high. However, magma is relatively close to the surface in a few areas, particularly the volcanically active areas around the Pacific Rim.
At The Geysers the magma is believed to exist at least four miles below the Earth's surface. The heat from the magma radiates to the layers of rock above heating water in the pores and fractures of the hot rock. A small portion of the heated water may rise to the surface causing hot springs, geysers, and fumaroles. At The Geysers, the reservoir water boils to steam and is trapped by an overlying layer of unfractured rock.

OUCH, Pat..........
that hurt.
The Geyser basin in Yellowstone is one of the most fascinating places I have ever been to.
Never knew there was a similar situation under San Fransc. I "happened" into two quakes in California -- after the second one.... I never went back -- they were minor quakes...the experience so unnerved me though... like if this is minor -- Holy Moley what's major.... I don't want to know.
Quoting pottery:
OUCH, Pat..........
that hurt.


Yeah,..reality will do that to ya pottery
Living in Montana, I went through several shakers, and it is a weird, unsettling feeling...EVERYTHING is moving and rolling.
44POttery -- that video is a nightmare -- the pain that humans endure.... *sigh* there'd be so much less suffering if we all could communicate, cooperate... I know it's not a perfect world -- sadly frustrating at times
sugar -- it's the rolling that got to me -- the oddest, most undescribable feeling -- you know you wanna say "wheeee this is fun".... but the deep voice is yelling "trouble, trouble"
I'm off -- still waiting on that potential wave maker cold front..... maybe I'll be lucky
Good Night ALL!
Quoting surfmom:
sugar -- it's the rolling that got to me -- the oddest, most undescribable feeling -- you know you wanna say "wheeee this is fun".... but the deep voice is yelling "trouble, trouble"

Yep, Surfmom, me, too. The ground isn't supposed to roll like a wave in the water!
Gotta go, too. Early morning...again..
Quoting surfmom:
Never knew there was a similar situation under San Fransc. I "happened" into two quakes in California -- after the second one.... I never went back -- they were minor quakes...the experience so unnerved me though... like if this is minor -- Holy Moley what's major.... I don't want to know.
At least the quakes come quickly and are gone quickly unlike our hurricanes that drag on! Been through both! Although, we do have time to prepare for the hurricanes. Almost everywhere has some issue that they deal with!
Quoting conchygirl:
At least the quakes come quickly and are gone quickly unlike our hurricanes that drag on! Been through both! Although, we do have time to prepare for the hurricanes. Almost everywhere has some issue that they deal with!

I think it is the 'devil you know' - Earthquakes really, really frighten me. Lived along the coast all my life, so Hurricanes are the 'devil I know'
and at least the hurricanes don't have aftershocks.

KEH, you have wu-mail.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

I think it is the 'devil you know' - Earthquakes really, really frighten me. Lived along the coast all my life, so Hurricanes are the 'devil I know'
We all have to figure out which devil we prefer to deal with....born and raised down here in Hurricane Central but lived many years in CA.
Quoting aquak9:
and at least the hurricanes don't have aftershocks.

KEH, you have wu-mail.
true, true!
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
4:00 AM Reunion January 6 2009
=====================================

Tropical Disturbance (1004 hPa) [JTWC 05S.BILLY) located at 14.0S 82.0E

Near Gale-force winds together with rough to locally very rough seas within 60 NM radius from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle.

Another Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 9.0S 62.0E.

Near Gale-force winds together with rough to locally very rough seas to exist within 60 NM radius of the center extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle.



LOW NEAR 09S 62E IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE SOUTHWARDS.
Dr Masters,

I have not been around much for past few weeks but wanted to take this minute to wish you and your family a very Happy Happy New Year. And to Thank you so much for this wonderful Community you have created for us all!

Take care,
Gams
Quoting seflagamma:
Dr Masters,

I have not been around much for past few weeks but wanted to take this minute to wish you and your family a very Happy Happy New Year. And to Thank you so much for this wonderful Community you have created for us all!

Take care,
Gams
That was a really nice thing to say Gams! It is a nice community.
the fact that there were only $4biilion in damages while so many were affected gives a sense of the poor conditions in which these people lived...
64. P451
Quoting CajunSubbie:
2008 Arctic Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979.

Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.


Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.

http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834


Rut Roh...The Alarmists won't be pleased by this.
For the first time this year...
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Quoting P451:


Rut Roh...The Alarmists won't be pleased by this.


Oh oh.... STL will be devastated
67. P451
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh oh.... STL will be devastated


How will he know? He's probably still waiting for someone to reply to the blog, wondering why no one has replied and if it'd be wrong for him to post "FIRST!!!".

So had the region not been over-populated, and had the woodlands not been destroyed due to over-population, this wouldn't even be a story.
Quoting bdkennedy1:
So had the region not been over-populated, and had the woodlands not been destroyed due to over-population, this wouldn't even be a story.


Ummmmmmm and Galveston is different how?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
18:00 PM FST January 6 2009
===============================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (999 hPa) located at 17.0S 162.0E. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C.

Cyclonic circulation is from low-mid level in a low to moderately sheared environment. Low level circulation center is exposed with disorganized convection.

Currently a vigorous monsoonal flow associated with an active convergence zone exist to the north of the system with an east to southeasterly surge to the south.

Global models (US/AVN/GFS) expect the system to move southeastward with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Morning to all -trying to get an early start -- there are waves in my future-- got to get the work finito
SWFL/GOMEX Surfers: BadaBING
Flat and calm today, by this afternoon we will see the S winds pick up. Still on track for fun surf Wednesday and Thursday. Some leftovers may stay around for Friday also. Stinks going back to work and school but at least we've got something to look forward too.
Looking good Surfmom!!


Widespread dense fog is currently over much of West Central and Southwest Florida this morning with numerous reports of visibilties reduced to a quarter mile or less. Motorists should slow down, use low beam headlights, and maintain a safe driving distance as visibilities can change quickly over short distances. A cold front with a pre frontal trough are expected to move over the area Wednesday producing a good chance of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may preoduce strong gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and deadly lightning. Winds will increase ahead of the front and remain breezy behind the front through Wednesday Night with elevated seas over the Eastern Gulf producing hazardous boating conditions and dangerous rip currents along area beaches.

Got the Bold print Vortix : ) -- with limited time and too much work I'm going to have to practice self-control and hope I pick the right day.....
I'm looking to Thursday & leftovers Friday at dawn
I'm sure whenever you can get there will be the perfect time.
God wouldn't let you miss out on some west coast surf!

Even if it is just the FL west coast...LOL

supposed to sleet all day in N VA roads should be interesting
What happened to the Philippine depression did it die already?
Vortfix -- "Just the Fl. West Coast"......Humph LOL -- This IS Paradise!
76 -All4hurricanes -- think so check Hades blog
Good morning... :)
Vortfix -- "Just the Fl. West Coast"......Humph LOL -- This IS Paradise!


Ha ha ha...took you long enough!
LOL
I thought this winter break would never end...the kids were just dropped off at school so a huge sigh over here....wheeeeeewwwwwww. today will be xanax free for the first time in two weeks! Hooray!!!!!

How many more days till hurricane season? Not that I want it to be here...just actually worried a bit about it (I know - a bit early to worry) - it's been REALLY warm here and we haven't had a serious winter yet - yesterday went SAILING in 78 degree weather and the water was not really that cold either. Just wondering what effect that will have on the season and wondering if the season will be harder than last year...I know that's yet to be seen but we usually have a more severe winter than this.
Good Morning Mel! Very mild here, as well. Crickets and frogs were chirping/croaking last night when I walked the dogs. Sounded like a summer evening.
Thank you for calling the country Myanmar. It has been a thorn in my side that the current administration keeps calling it Burma, long after the UN, other developed nations, and maps have referred to Myanmar by its modern name. They caught on to Zimbabwe fast enough.
Just two more weeks till we get a forward thinking, modern, intelligent, and scientific administration.
YIPEEEE!
Morning All:

Dreary, foggy morning here in Melbourne - fog actually seems to be thickening as the morning goes on - Mr. Sun will burn it off in a few.
Quoting conchygirl:
Morning All:

Dreary, foggy morning here in Melbourne - fog actually seems to be thickening as the morning goes on - Mr. Sun will burn it off in a few.

Hiya Conchy! We have had fog daily for about aweek. Thought I was in London ,LOL. But, Mr. Sun is out this morning and I am getting ready for the dogwalk. Have a great day, all!
Good Morning Mel -- so happy to hear the weather was kind and let you out to sea!!! Young Buck was a serious grumbledude going back to school. It was nice to have such warm temps. during christmas break... Young Buck and friends had a terrific time jet sking, kayaking,fishing when they were hanging by the Gulf and then out east Bon Fires (snitching people's tossed out Christmas trees)and camping out -- Still some of that old Flordia life around here. Buttttt -- it was time for school and routine........ if I washed any more beach towels I was going to flip
Mel -- I'm not thinking about 'canes yet....... This is what is on my mind today SWFL/GOMEX Surfers: BadaBING
Flat and calm today, by this afternoon we will see the S winds pick up. Still on track for fun surf Wednesday and Thursday. Some leftovers may stay around for Friday also. Stinks going back to work and school but at least we've got something to look forward too.

all too soon we will have 'Cane Concerns....presently I'm burying my head in the sand
Sorry...got distracted by news and facebook! Morning all - surfmom - have FUN today. Love the water - just have fun.

Sugar - no frogs here - even my resident toad has been vacant from his toad condo (my sneaker) on the porch. But man it's warm.

I feel bad for the folks up north - they are freezing while we are wearing shorts and tshirts and hanging out on the water. The only thing that is really irritating is the gnats are back with a vengance. Trying to get the sail covers on yesterday and they were SWARMING and oldest actually got stung by a yellowjacket (a YELLOWJACKET IN JANUARY). At least those darn biting flies aren't out.

Surfmom - I guess I'll stick with you and just not try to think about it yet - funny though - even my kids mentioned it to me yesterday wondering about what the summer will hold. Saying they hope we aren't here still by then since the weather has been so incredibly mild.
89. IKE
Quoting P451:


How will he know? He's probably still waiting for someone to reply to the blog, wondering why no one has replied and if it'd be wrong for him to post "FIRST!!!".



LOL....that's funny.

69.1 degrees at my house this morning. That's warmer then the average high temp.
Quoting melwerle:
Sorry...got distracted by news and facebook! Morning all - surfmom - have FUN today. Love the water - just have fun.

Sugar - no frogs here - even my resident toad has been vacant from his toad condo (my sneaker) on the porch. But man it's warm.

I feel bad for the folks up north - they are freezing while we are wearing shorts and tshirts and hanging out on the water. The only thing that is really irritating is the gnats are back with a vengance. Trying to get the sail covers on yesterday and they were SWARMING and oldest actually got stung by a yellowjacket (a YELLOWJACKET IN JANUARY). At least those darn biting flies aren't out.

Surfmom - I guess I'll stick with you and just not try to think about it yet - funny though - even my kids mentioned it to me yesterday wondering about what the summer will hold. Saying they hope we aren't here still by then since the weather has been so incredibly mild.
Ah Mel - still thinking about the potential move back to 'paradise'.
Sugar, Conchy, Mel & I -- we're all having a sunshining day.....Flip flops, T-shirts and BIG smiles.... I'm certainly thankful not to be a Canuck freezing my buns off -- I'll take the 'canes over frozen hell any day........ gulp, every time I make a statement like that ... I worry that I'll be eating a big fat black canuck crow in a few months.

my morning play time is over -- time to hit the deck and get the work done...............
Quoting surfmom:
Sugar, Conchy, Mel & I -- we're all having a sunshining day.....Flip flops, T-shirts and BIG smiles.... I'm certainly thankful not to be a Canuck freezing my buns off -- I'll take the 'canes over frozen hell any day........ gulp, every time I make a statement like that ... I worry that I'll be eating a big fat black canuck crow in a few months.

my morning play time is over -- time to hit the deck and get the work done...............
flip-flops are the shoe of choice (except for work but still open toed)...Disney half this weekend SM!
Quoting surfmom:
Sugar, Conchy, Mel & I -- we're all having a sunshining day.....Flip flops, T-shirts and BIG smiles.... I'm certainly thankful not to be a Canuck freezing my buns off -- I'll take the 'canes over frozen hell any day........ gulp, every time I make a statement like that ... I worry that I'll be eating a big fat black canuck crow in a few months.

my morning play time is over -- time to hit the deck and get the work done...............


Who you calling a crow??
Quoting Orcasystems:


Who you calling a crow??
Surely not you Orca! LOL
Quoting conchygirl:
Surely not you Orca! LOL


Man oh man.. its days like today that tarnish my Halo :(
Under the category of "Leave it to Beaver"


JACKSON, Ohio (AP) - Police say an angry 4-year-old Ohio boy grabbed a gun from a closet and shot his baby sitter.

Eighteen-year-old Nathan Beavers was hospitalized Sunday with minor wounds to his arm and side after the shotgun attack. Police say another teen was also injured.

Witnesses told police the child was angry because Beavers accidentally stepped on his foot. Beavers was watching the child at a mobile home in Jackson with several other teenagers and several other children.

Jackson County Sheriff John Shashteen says authorities are investigating. The child has not been charged.
90. Conchy - we're really trying hard. I have a job as soon as I hit town...it's just hubby needs to get a job. We're working on it HARD. Trying to keep the kids from packing already...this is all anyone in the house can talk about. Trying trying...
Quoting melwerle:
90. Conchy - we're really trying hard. I have a job as soon as I hit town...it's just hubby needs to get a job. We're working on it HARD. Trying to keep the kids from packing already...this is all anyone in the house can talk about. Trying trying...
As always, good vibes coming your way in hopes that it works out for your family!
Thanks Conchy! I'll miss the warm water here though - love sailing and not freezing my butt off...anchoring and going for a swim is nice but I can live with wearing a wet suit again...

The tremors I'll have to get used to again but I can kind of hear them coming when they hit...it's like that "train" sound. Hubby always wondered how I did that - he can't hear them. Right before we left he was yapping about something...told him to be quiet and to brace. Just kind of asked "how did you do that?" lol! I'll take the tremors though - they relieve the pressure...just no BIG quakes.
100. GBlet
makes you wonder how this child's parents act.
Quoting melwerle:
Thanks Conchy! I'll miss the warm water here though - love sailing and not freezing my butt off...anchoring and going for a swim is nice but I can live with wearing a wet suit again...

The tremors I'll have to get used to again but I can kind of hear them coming when they hit...it's like that "train" sound. Hubby always wondered how I did that - he can't hear them. Right before we left he was yapping about something...told him to be quiet and to brace. Just kind of asked "how did you do that?" lol! I'll take the tremors though - they relieve the pressure...just no BIG quakes.
Yes, I remember all our sailing out of Harbor Island Yacht Club and you always bundle up - summer or winter but worth it, I agree! Love going past the point at Point Loma! Getting more homesick now? LOL
102. GBlet
I'll stick with Tornado Alley. I did not like tremors at all. I watched my wood floor behave like piano keys. Never tried a hurricane. I'm also still waiting for decent winter storm here. I need acouple of days off and that would be my ticket. I get Sundays off and 5 fed holidays a year so a good "snow in" would be great! No snow days in Paradise!
Quoting GBlet:
I'll stick with Tornado Alley. I did not like tremors at all. I watched my wood floor behave like piano keys. Never tried a hurricane. I'm also still waiting for decent winter storm here. I need acouple of days off and that would be my ticket. I get Sundays off and 5 fed holidays a year so a good "snow in" would be great! No snow days in Paradise!
As I've said before, we all have to figure out what we love the best and deal with what comes our way. Not many areas are immune to some type of issue. If you love a place, you stay and work through the issues. GB - where exactly are you located?
104. GBlet
Hey, I forgot about Dolly! She was gorgeous when she passed over. There was enough structure left to know that she was an organized storm. It was shortly before sunset and the clouds were pink and blue.
105. GBlet
Conchy I am in the middle of Kansas, 40ish mile from center of the whole country. Way too close to the drain!
106. GBlet
DON'T FLUSH!!!
89. IKE

The temps have been great but I just saw the marine forecast...25 - 30 knots tonight and tomorrow with gusts to gale force. We're in for quite a blow here on the coast.
Quoting GBlet:
Conchy I am in the middle of Kansas, 40ish mile from center of the whole country. Way too close to the drain!
Yes, we all pick our poison - tornadoes are something I never wish to experience. Never been to Kansas!
Tornados are no fun either...can't STAND it when the radio goes off and gives tornado warnings - never been in one and hope to never experience it either. I agree with you Conchy - every place has their issues - you gotta pick your poison.

I remember the Landers quake - back in 93? 92? We were far from it too...woke up at 5 in the morning after being out all night - MAJOR hangover...and laying in bed and started to feel the walls and floors ROLL. Got up, ran outside and as I was running, could feel the whole floor just rolling - like waves under the concrete. I'm sure my neighbors appreciated seeing me in my tshirt and underwear in the middle of the cul-de-sac. (LOL)

Went back to bed after watching Kate from the Earthquake Center place...then another one hit about 2 hours later. At least I had the good sense to put on some sweats at that point. That was the heaviest quake I had felt (besides one that I was driving in the car - thought it was the car acting up - was screaming "you piece of junk" at it. Didn't know it was an earthquake till I walked in my office and everyone was still freaking out. One guy who was from North Carolina - it was his first quake...he said he was going home and packing up to move back east...he would take the canes anytime.

Matter of preference I spose...wonder if there's someplace that DOESN'T have anything going on.
110. GBlet
Or paradise. I've been here 10yrs and would not consider "going home" to west Tex. Love the people, still wave to other drivers on daily commute. We get all 4 seasons, I love to watch the sun make it's seasonal journey across the sky. The economy is strong here. Just wish beef prices would go down.
111. GBlet
If I leave here, I would head south till I found the gulf. Always wanted to live by the water.
Morning all.. The fog burnt off into a beauty of a day.

I'm really suprised how many keep harping on the ice article. Read that? Check out the gragh it pictures in the article? Looking at that I could write an article that we have 1 million+ sq km less of sea ice this time of year than last..it's tipped man~ freak out..lol. How much sea ice we have Jan 1st just indicates when winter got going. The real consern lays with the maximum & minimum extent. Great example of statistical manipulation & the rampit attempts through media to confuse the public.
Looks like S Asia, including Myanmar have been attending workshops by NOAA & Japan to help them utilize the satalite info about rainfall/rainrates for that region. It amazes me how we can look at the info, forecast for the world while some of these heads of govts sit in the dark, not knowing the info is out there. This is great. Now if some would help N Korea or was it Vietnam? They lost a crowd last year to a storm & then reported to media they were short on satalites & had too few mets. Had the mets only frequented this blog:)
The severe weather has just popped off with a tornado warning in MS.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061543Z - 061745Z

A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THREAT FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

RADAR LOOP DEPICTS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SWRN LA NEWD INTO SWRN MS...WITH UPDRAFTS LIKELY ELEVATED JUST TO
THE COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING SW-NE ACROSS THIS AREA.
THIS BAND OF GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES ENEWD ACROSS E
CENTRAL AND SERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL...WITHIN ZONE OF APPARENT WARM
ADVECTION.

SE OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION... BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO FACILITATE LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING. MODIFICATION OF
MORNING RAOBS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST/INCREASINGLY-WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH SLOWLY-FALLING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AFTER MIDDAY SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/LONGEVITY WITH TIME.

THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH BROAD SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW TOPPED BY
INCREASINGLY-STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT WITH TIME...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
BE A POSSIBILITY -- PARTICULARLY LATER AS SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SEEMS LIKELY.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2009

CaptainHunter.....Perfect sailing weather!!!!! Let's untie the dock lines and get offshore!!!!!!!!!!!
I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to review....i put up a live Radar for the Tornado Watch area.....left click for full features.....

TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
The WU forecast for the Florida Panhandle (32413 zip) May be way out of wack...
I got mine updated too. Click on my handle to get there.

Figured I'd drag the top stories from slumming the weather wires to here.

Mozambique on high alert for flooding
Homes and crops lost as floods hit Mozambique

Maputo - Flooding has killed 10 people in Mozambique and heavy rain is still falling on the southern African country's central and southern regions, the state-run Noticias reported on Tuesday.

The newspaper said roads had been cut in the southern provinces of Gaza and Inhambane, and in central Manica province where 10 people have drowned.

Casirimo Abreu, deputy director of the Institute of National Disaster Management (INGC), told Reuters there was a risk of heavy flooding in central Mozambique following weeks of torrential rains that caused many rivers to burst their banks.

"The situation continues to worsen due to persistent downpours (and) we are worried in terms of logistics and want people in lower areas to leave now as a matter of prevention in the event of floods."


Government Allowing Hurricane-Related Tax Deductions
HOUSTON -- A new year, a new tax season. But there’s one big question in our area, "What can I write-off relating to Hurricane Ike?"

The answer is almost everything


Quoting presslord:
CaptainHunter.....Perfect sailing weather!!!!! Let's untie the dock lines and get offshore!!!!!!!!!!!


No thanks Press. I'm more the 10-15 knot pleasure sailor. 25+ knots makes my hiney tighten up!
Quoting GBlet:
If I leave here, I would head south till I found the gulf. Always wanted to live by the water.
It sounds like you have found the perfect place for you and loving the people there too - so important! You can always come visit the Gulf
Destroyer in some Heavy Weather in the Gulf

I wonder what is causing this activity....volcano maybe.....

Last 2 Weeks of Earthquakes
(within 10 degrees of LON=133.35, LAT=-1.13)

DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.

DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
06-JAN-2009 03:18:29 -1.13 133.35 5.0 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
06-JAN-2009 00:34:25 -0.44 132.02 5.1 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
05-JAN-2009 19:24:03 -0.69 133.25 5.1 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
05-JAN-2009 15:28:21 -0.79 133.45 5.0 24.2 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
Good afternoon all

For those that may have missed it...Video from the Christmas Party for Bridge City residents.

Y'all have a great afternoon
TampaSpin -- I'm wondering if it's the perihelion - check lowercals blog - if this is strong enough to affect tides greatly -- high, high....low-lows wouldn't it also pull on the earth's "guts" ?
Wind from the south is picking up -- white caps no waves here in SWFL - Gomex 67 degrees waiting on waves -- back to work
Quoting surfmom:
TampaSpin -- I'm wondering if it's the perihelion - check lowercals blog - if this is strong enough to affect tides greatly -- high, high....low-lows wouldn't it also pull on the earth's "guts" ?


We also just passed perigee. So the moon is closer too.
127. Inyo
The thing about earthquakes is you can NEVER count one out. Hurricanes and tornados are very unpredictable but you can look at the satellite picture then look outside and be very sure, for instance, that a hurricane will not hit Florida today. However, there could be an earthquake any second of any day, with no real warning at all. Sure animals act weird sometimes, but you only realize why after the fact.

That being said I live in California and tornados sound way scarier than earthquakes. Most earthquakes won't kill you unless you are unlucky (on the freeway, in a poorly built building). If an f-5 tornado hits, and you arent in a bomb shelter or something, you are probably going to die, and there's nothing you can do about it.
inyo how about a mile long astroid aiming right at your area they give you five minutes to impact? ill take a earthquake any day.
Wind Advisory

Statement as of 11:32 AM CST on January 06, 2009

... Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM CST this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 6 PM CST this afternoon.

Southerly winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph can be
expected across southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi through
the afternoon.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 26 to 39 mph are
expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially
for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.




Record Report

Statement as of 01:07 am CST on January 06, 2009

... Record high temperature set at New Orleans...

a record high temperature of 78 degrees was set at New Orleans yesterday.
This ties the old record of 78 set in 1955.
I have no opinion - but I found this fascinating!!!!!

PRESENTATION OUTLINE:

Mitch Battros presents fascinating, and sometimes shocking, research from the world's top scientists. After years of dialogue with these experts, Mitch has been accepted into the guarded halls of NASA, NOAA, ESA, Royal Observatory, the US Naval Observatory and other highly esteemed scientific bodies. In addition to the latest research on the Sun's influence on our weather, Mitch will also present ground-breaking evidence of how the Sun and other celestial orbs produce 'charged particles' and their impact on humanity. Just as the Sun's solar weather affects the Earth's magnetic field, so does this wave of electrical currents affect the human body's magnetic field. Mitch will also reveal a little-known development from modern medicine known as Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS). TMS provides empirical evidence of how magnetic fields can influence human emotions.

What did our ancestors tell us about these Times? Mitch Battros will disclose what Mayan elders have only recently been allowed to reveal to humanity. Some of these prophecies and predictions have already taken place while others lie just ahead. When we investigage recent scientific findings more closely, we find startling resemblances to what the Elders from around the world have foretold in documents, petroglyphs, hieroglyphs, scrolls, storytelling, mythology, and rituals. The Maya tell us of the end of one world, and the beginning of another. The Hopi tell us the end of the 4th World and the beginning of a 5th. The Bible tells us the Heavens will open, and one day there will be 'Heaven on Earth'. Stone monuments like the Egyptian pyramids, Newgrange, Stonehenge, Chaco Canyon reveal cultures that built elaborate structures to facilitate the passing into another dimension or existence.



Solar Cycle 24 has begun - and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up to 50% stronger than its 'record breaking' predecessor Cycle 23 which produced the largest solar flare ever recorded. The Sun will reach its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2011 into 2012.


Scientific research along with ancient text documents suggests the Mayan Calendar ending on December 21st 2012 may very well be connected to solar activity. Mitch Battros' research shows that charged particles emitted by the Sun in the way of solar flares, CME's and coronal holes are the cause of extreme earth changes such as earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, and tornadoes. His research also indicates the very same magnetic flux which effects the Earth, will also affect humans. In fact, Battros will demonstrate how the magnetic field which surrounds the Earth is similar to the magnetic field which surrounds every living thing.



"I believe it will be the magnetic influence produced by the Sun which will usher in what is described by our ancient ancestors as "the transition" bringing us to a new state-of-being". (Mitch Battros)

#34 Jan.5th- Happy New Year Surfmom! So good to see things are working out re your son Know no one but you and Pottery ever pay attention to what i have to say- but the info on the Geysers might interest you. As you know the entire West coast from Alaska down through South America is a series of active Volcanos - Mt. St. Helen's being one of the worst in recent memory- It just so happens that part of my family lives in the area between Mt. Shasta and Mt. Lassen. Lassen, like Yellostone is a walk-in volcano, with fumeroles etc. and altho there is no imminent danger, these volcanos, and the others provide a section of the road map for all the tectonic plates that run throughout that part of the Americas. I can remember my first time flying over the San Andreas Fault and seeing the plates pushing apart and the giant fissures all down the state of California, it was awesome. There's a couple of things I'd like to say.
First re the Geysers, like everything else having to do with earthquakes in Ca. they are one of the areas of monitoring what is going on in terms of seismic activity. That event a couple of days ago was very interesting, because I have never seen it that high- yet, it has gone down much more near normal 2.6 was measured today. WU covers this daily if you go into Lake Almanor, California, where my family lives, high in the Sierras. Secondly, I don't really worry about earthquakes in Ca. because of the intense scientific monitoring that goes on, the unbelievably strict building codes that exist and the plans which are gone through- drills at schools, office buildings atc. in cities throughout the State to ensure if there is a significant quake, the children are kept at school, parents at their place of employ etc., so that chaos does not break out. One also learns how to judge the significance of a quake and how to respond.
I remember the quake in S.F. where the Marina District burned and a section of the freeway broke off. the media kept showing the same pictures of those small areas over and over (not that the freeway was not a disaster)but it is important to realise that in the very small section of the Marina which was affected the houses were built in the early 20th century and they had not all come up to earthquake standards and secondly, the freeway section was due for major renovation, the earthquake just came first. But what is the most important thing to remember is this: THERE WERE OVER 50,000 PEOPLE IN GIANTS STADIUM WATCHING BASEBALL, THE STADIUM DID NOT COLLAPSE, NO ONE WAS HURT, EVERYONE LEFT CALMLY. Now, compare that with similar earthquakes in China, Turkey, Mexico City- with earthquakes we are learning more and more how to build properly( of course ignoring the environemental asessments and allowing palms to be greased won't help)- but Ca. is the least likely for that to be rampant because EVERYONE understands the importance of earthquake awareness and where and how to construct, AND WHAT TO DO IN AN EARTHQUAKE.

What is really intersting to me is Montserrat, here in the Caribbean. that volcano was declared deader than a dodo.hadn't erupted
(as far as anyone knew- and british seismologists studied it- since before Columbus)-Then one day,( sorry senility causes short-teerm memory blackouts) totally out of the blue we begin to see seismic activity- now over half the island is uninhabitable, the capital is buried in ash and most of the people have left- they really all need to leave- but people are people- it is still a British colony, there have been immigration issues etc., but this is a tiny place, there is no earthquake construction buildings, people are living very precariously and it is madness. We have several other volcanos in the Eastern Caribbean, all in various states of activity. the most intersting is "Kick'em Jenny" located in the Grenadines. It is an underwater volcano that you can sort of drive up to- but has been very active for some time. A couple of years ago the media frightened the entire population of Barbados out of their wits by showing the amount of time the storm surge from Jenny would take to reach here and how far into the island it would go- by the time someone would be putting the info on the air we would be hit,less than 5minutes, like Phukat- the entire coast line of Barbados' West coast would be underwater. Soo. not only do we have hurricanes to be concerned about in the Caribbean but volcanic/earthquake activity as well, and no one is paying any attention to better monitoring ( Hawaii monitors us!) or building construction- and another reason,as if we did not have enough already, to stop destroying our fragile coastline with giant hotel conglomerates. Soo my dear SurfMom, the same greed, power and control you have been talking about- for us foreign muti-nationals and their quest to control the world's largest industry, the travel industry, is increasingly destroying everything that makes this place really paradise.

But everyone should look at what Ca. has done and marvel ( yes, there have been big errors too- but on a global scale it is a model)

Now, can anyone tell me what hapened to the Bengal tiger Reserve in Myanmar and if a significant number of the population survived? And what about their environment? I asked before.
Bjanmama -- Wow that was a great information!! and I learned quite a bit about the carib. situation...... Monseratt has always been a concern to me.... did not know about "Kick'emJenny"..........Been enjoying all the information on quakes & such on TampaSpins blog.... certainly hoping this activity is letting out steam -- so we don't have anything major... but with ALL the activity lately -- all areas bear watching.

I haven't heard a peep on the Bengals --wonder if National Geographic would have a site with information ---
Bjamama - just copied your post over to my spouse --he will much appreciate your insights on the Carib.
Hey everyone i have a question...i live in South Louisiana and my local meteorologists are talking about an artic outbreak for mid-next week could i have a link that sends me to the computer models that show the 14-day temperature forecast
115. Press - went out sailing yesterday and there were whitecaps...had to totally depower the sails - took the youngest out for the first time and didn't want to heel too much with her out there. WHAT A BLAST though...today would have been heavier too...my oldest would have done it...she's gone out in this nonsense in a 420 and just screamed with delight as she had to hike out to keep from flipping...

gotta love the wind...
130. surfmom

Pretty neat. The Sun has been awfully quiet for some time now. The calm before the storm?
Quoting captainhunter:


No thanks Press. I'm more the 10-15 knot pleasure sailor. 25+ knots makes my hiney tighten up!


ROTFL.... that happens to me when the horses spook and stopping doesn't seem to be an immediate option
135 mel -- beautiful post -- I just know that feeling (well, in regards to surfing) but I could so picture her and the R U S H --gotta love the wind (cept when I'm on a horse)
Quoting captainhunter:
130. surfmom

Pretty neat. The Sun has been awfully quiet for some time now. The calm before the storm?
... EYES WIDE OPEN CAPTAIN!!
Satellite picture this morning on TampaSpins Blog showing a healthy front building as it inches closer to FL. Today we start off flat, but the winds will increase from the South. Maybe a small wave before sunset, but tomorrow will provide some chunk as the wind is forecasted to blow SW all night and into tomorrow before the front arrives Wednesday night.
Gulf Temp 67... I just love ZEPHYR wind!! The smell, the feeling -- like a cozy soft blanket........ and then the waves...... there could be some sweet stuff Thursday/Friday
Yep Surfmom - love to think about that day - nothing like hearing pure joy come from your kid.

Quoting melwerle:
Yep Surfmom - love to think about that day - nothing like hearing pure joy come from your kid.

Especially when they are outside playing!!
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Hey everyone i have a question...i live in South Louisiana and my local meteorologists are talking about an artic outbreak for mid-next week could i have a link that sends me to the computer models that show the 14-day temperature

UNYSIS 10-GFSx..Day 10 next Friday,0 Zulu Link
Brief Analysis


Dual mid level sub-synoptic cyclones along a quasi-baroclinic zone are producing copious dynamic precip values over much of the upper southeastern region. Both systems will continue to move eastward, and will interact with one another as they move. There is sufficient thermal energy at the southern side of the stationary front for minimal convective rain over eastern Louisiana and western Alabama. Both systems should exit the U.S. about 48 hours from now.....beyond that...we should see a very quiet week. =]!

Re #130 WOW SurfMom! Never expected to read this on the blog! I know about the mayan prophesies about 2012 and their great mathmatics. Used to scare me- but a belief in either (a) an afterlife- (i.e. heaven) or many lifetimes in different cosmic "zones" such as reincarnation can ease it a bit- but not much for people like me who absolutely love this little blue marble and all the fascinating creatures and interlinkages... anyway- back to your comment. this is another example of the growing convergence between science and ancient philosophies many based, like the Mayans on "science". what the link is here to what you quoted is quantum physics- the great departure from Newtonian physics- ( gravity and the apple falling on the head that i seem to remember as a child from a disney programme) Einstein's work which led to quantum physics( and he argued with himself for a long time over many aspects of this) brings the two spheres science and spirituality into an interrelationship- which is closing the gap that was created by the Renaissance and then Rationality in the Western world- but not in the rest of the world until the 20th century. One element of Einstein's theory is "that everything in the universe is interconnected"- space and time are not static; but are dynamic qualities that are relative to the observer as well as to the thing being observed. So they not only affect, but are affected by, everything that happens in the universe. Like the energy from the flap of monarch butterfly wings on magnetic fields thousands of miles away- so that everything in the universe is affected by everything else.

According to these great scientists Our universe is a universe of laws. Natural law is the physical manifestation of a higher degree of order. We live in a universe of connectedness, and we actually participate in the operation of it. Quantum physics to be very simplistic is the subject of the sub-atomic particles of atoms which give the atom its various individual charateristics, these particles can be extremely small and we live in a quantum universe. Spiritual thinkers and some scientists see the realm of the quantum as the transitional place between Spirit( God, First Cause etc.) and the material world Whether it was the Egyptians, Plato, Mayans, Pythagoras the Greek mathmatician- all believed we live in a universe of connectedness, but it was not until the 20th c. and the exploration of quantum physics that this was scientifically demonstrated.
In addition things change form- water to ice - not to get too heavily into this but Newtonian physics dealt with a world that is predicatable, mechanistic and precise. Quantum physics shows that Newton's laws do not apply at the sub-atomic level BUT quantum physics is applicable at both the visable ( macroscopic) and invisable (sub-atomic world). And science has now learned that the basic substance of the universe is comprised of invisable quantum (sub-atomic fields) and a definition of quantum fields would be " non-material patterns of energy that exert visable influence". there is now a whole body of literature showing how the realm of the mind behaves very much like the quantum realm of waves and particles. I'm beginning to sound like a mad scientst, which I am not ( at least not a scientist) but there is a gigantic volume of literature that increasingly demonstrates that all nature is in some sense wavelike, fieldlike and mindlike in a way that is not fully understood and why consciousness directly affects our individual and collective lives in the world and the universe is not separate from us.

So what Prof. Battros is saying is very akin to all this and I really would like to know the book you are reading,( have read) by him. It is fascinating to see that the civilisations that the rationalist europeans decided were "pagan", "backward", traditional" superstitious" etc. have now much more scientific relevance than ever given credit for.
REally would appreciate knowing the book, publisher etc. thanks so much.
Bjanmama - I always pay attention to what you say. I learn so much about so many places and planet related events from almost every one here. I heard about an earth tremor that affected a friend in the UK. Seems she was in bed reading and listening to music thru earphones. She thought technology had really improved the musical effect until someone yelled earthquake!!!
Quoting futuremet:
Brief Analysis


Dual mid level sub-synoptic cyclones along a quasi-baroclinic zone are producing copious dynamic precip values over much of the upper southeastern region. Both systems will continue to move eastward, and will interact with one another as they move. There is sufficient thermal energy at the southern side of the stationary front for minimal convective rain over eastern Louisiana and western Alabama. Both systems should exit the U.S. about 48 hours from now.....beyond that...we should see a very quiet week. =]!



I reckon you should recheck some of the models.

There's going to be another advisory level snowfall across a good portion of the Northeast and perhaps the northern Mid-Atlantic starting late Friday night into Saturday as a hybrid clipper system moves across the eastern half of the country. This will be followed by a rather significant lake-effect snow event. Also, along the trailing cold front there could be another convective outbreak from SE Texas and along the Gulf Coast to southern Alabama.

I would also like to note the flooding rainfall/heavy mtn. snow in the Pacific Northwest as strong jet stream energy continues to slam ashore. QPF should range in the 2-6" range which will bring 3-6 feet of snow to the higher terrain and flooding as snow levels rise over the next couple of days. Due to the wet nature of the snow there will also be an enhance avalanche risk. This moisture will eventually spill into the northern/central Rockies by Friday, bringing those areas up to 18" of snow.
Quoting sullivanweather:


I reckon you should recheck some of the models.

There's going to be another advisory level snowfall across a good portion of the Northeast and perhaps the northern Mid-Atlantic starting late Friday night into Saturday as a hybrid clipper system moves across the eastern half of the country. This will be followed by a rather significant lake-effect snow event. Also, along the trailing cold front there could be another convective outbreak from SE Texas and along the Gulf Coast to southern Alabama.

I would also like to note the flooding rainfall/heavy mtn. snow in the Pacific Northwest as strong jet stream energy continues to slam ashore. QPF should range in the 2-6" range which will bring 3-6 feet of snow to the higher terrain and flooding as snow levels rise over the next couple of days. Due to the wet nature of the snow there will also be an enhance avalanche risk. This moisture will eventually spill into the northern/central Rockies by Friday, bringing those areas up to 18" of snow.


I was talking about the south and the southeast lol

GFS 18Z
Quoting sullivanweather:


Also, along the trailing cold front there could be another convective outbreak from SE Texas and along the Gulf Coast to southern Alabama.

16 inches of snow in 24 hours here in northern NM. We've got about 3 ft on the ground.

Quoting sullivanweather:


That front will be weak, it is not a sufficient lifting mechanism for substantial severe weather. The air ahead of it is already stable, and thus more resistant to vertical motion.The trailing cool front is akin to a kata front.

GFS model is expecting virtually little or no rain over the south beyond 36 hours from now.

NOTE: I do not mean, beyond 36 hours to eternity lol...like some of you are thinking

I mean that we should have a temporary break here in the Southeast between 42-84 hrs from now

Sorry If I caused you to misinterpret my forecast.....I'll be sure to make it more comprehensive.






I submit to you..

Out in time..One must always consider the UNYSIS GFSx..10-day.
Especially day 10 ,next Friday at 0 Zulu Hours Link

I'm going to agree with Futuremet. I don't see the dynamics shaping up for anything more than what we are already seeing across the southeast. Moisture will mitigate for the SE as the front progresses towards the eastern seaboard with more of the energy going up towards the mid-Atlantic states and northeast. The atmosphere looks caped as the front begins to advance towards Florida with dry air between the 700mb-850mb layer,lack of any forcing, and steep height falls.
Mauritius Meteorological Services


LOW [1008 HPA] NEAR 10.0S 68.0E

Expected to intensify



Tropical Cyclone model forecast for 05S
Wow Patrap, I remember seeing that episode of the Twilight Zone during the 4th of July Marathon on Sci-Fi. ^_^
Unfortunately, the GFS doesn't seem to be capturing the energy associated with the next shortwave.

Check out the ECMWF model, by far a surperior model to the GFS. It shows a much stronger front and a trough that digs further to the south.

For some reason the GFS doesn't seem to capture Pacific energy as well as the ECMWF model. Whenever systems originate from the Gulf of Alaska the ECMWF model is the model of choice.
#146Thank you Aloysius, you are kind. But what did she hear? Was it that the notes in the music became more intensive or what? very interesting.
By the middle of next week even Florida will have their share of arctic air. That ridge that has been shielding the southeast since Christmas, well let's just say "all things must pass".
Evening folks,

Looks to me as if we will be missing the arctic blast. Though we are predicted to have a return to our normal highs for January (high 50's). 70 F is just unseasonally warm.

Have enjoyed reading over the blog this evening, interesting conversations.

On the Mayan's. I knew the last day on their calendar was in 2012. I did not realize the that they had predicted an actual end to the world (though I know that many today have interpreted the end of the calendar to mean the end of time). At some point the Mayan's were having a bit of difficulty, and I always thought it likely that the Mayan scientist were unable to continue working on the calendar.(Sort of like when financial times are tough today, folks advocate the cut back on NASA etc.) As the civilization began to fail, it certainly would have been difficult to continue to maintain the calendar.



Bjanmama - she was laughing so hard at herself that it was difficult to tell but I got the idea it was the enhanced bass notes and the vibrations of a good concert setup. This person has had several encounters with planet earth like this. One involved asking her (ex)boyfriend what that noise was. "Oh shut up and go back to sleep" just before the tornado collapsed the tend on them. I was there for that one.
"tent" Good grief cat, learn to type.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
9:00 AM FST January 7 2009
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1001 hPa) located at 16.0S 167.5E reported moving east at 5 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

System remains disorganized but deep convection previously displaced further north has developed closer to the low level circulation center. TD 04 lies in a sheared environment with 20-25 knot winds at 250 HPA. An active convergence zone lies to the north of TD FOUR with 25 knot winds at the surface A southeasterly surge is developing to the south.

Development is expected to remain unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper trough from the west which will maintain a sheared environment. TD FOUR may still develop as a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

---
strange that Fiji spelled hybrid as "Hibrid"...
WHAT THE f geta LIFE
Quoting futuremet:


That front will be weak, it is not a sufficient lifting mechanism for substantial severe weather. The air ahead of it is already stable, and thus more resistant to vertical motion.The trailing cool front is akin to a kata front.

GFS model is expecting virtually little or no rain over the south beyond 36 hours from now.

NOTE: I do not mean, beyond 36 hours to eternity lol...like some of you are thinking

I mean that we should have a temporary break here in the Southeast between 42-84 hrs from now

Sorry If I caused you to misinterpret my forecast.....I'll be sure to make it more comprehensive.






Quoting DDR:
Thats what happens when you live in 3rd world country,governments dont care,all they care is the money,not people.
I think this is too much of a "blanket statement". There are some 3rd world countries whose governments work towards the betterment and empowerment of the people they rule. But the Myanmar government could be the poster child for selfish dictatorship government which views its people as disposable. I've never seen anything quite like it.
U 2 KONKI & IK
Quoting weatherbro:
By the middle of next week even Florida will have their share of arctic air. That ridge that has been shielding the southeast since Christmas, well let's just say "all things must pass".


Snow??? Florida :) umm No, say it ain't so :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow??? Florida :) umm No, say it ain't so :)


Global warming is abating...
THANKYOU DR JEFF, THAT WAS VERY INFORMATIVE.
Quoting Drakoen:


Global warming is abating...


GASP!!!!!
Blasphemy, I'm telling on you.....
STL, where are you???

Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow??? Florida :) umm No, say it ain't so :)
OUCH!....pls. no El Norte'
#159 Good point KEH, would like to recheck that- because it is true that the Mayans lived in rainforests and surrounding environments and we all know that rainforests cannot sustain certain kinds of agriculture- they were deforesting large tracts of land in the latter years, which led to climate change, not unfamiliar to rainforest problems today and water problems leading to more strife, warfare, politcal problems etc. But my understanding was that their astronemers/mathematicians did foresee the end of the earth as they knew it in its present cosmic configuration in 2012.hmmm

#160 your friend reminds me of some musical geniuses and other special people who pick up vibrations that the rest of us humans- not dogs,birds, cows etc.- do not. interesting. I gether they were not swept away in the tent like an Arabian nights or Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz???
"the Myanmar government could be the poster child for selfish dictatorship government which views its people as disposable. I've never seen anything quite like it."

Bahahurricane I tried to express this last night -- you wrote it perfectly...Patrap posted a video -- really disturbing --just plain tragic

Quoting Bjanmama:
Soo. not only do we have hurricanes to be concerned about in the Caribbean but volcanic/earthquake activity as well, and no one is paying any attention to better monitoring ( Hawaii monitors us!) or building construction- and another reason,as if we did not have enough already, to stop destroying our fragile coastline with giant hotel conglomerates. Soo my dear SurfMom, the same greed, power and control you have been talking about- for us foreign muti-nationals and their quest to control the world's largest industry, the travel industry, is increasingly destroying everything that makes this place really paradise.

But everyone should look at what Ca. has done and marvel ( yes, there have been big errors too- but on a global scale it is a model.
These were some very interesting comments. I only recently started delving into the volcano situation in the Caribbean, and while everybody here (Bahamas) grew up on the story of the Port Royal Jamaica Earthquake, I knew very little about the active vulcanism (and earthquake prone areas) of the Caribbean Islands. It was fascinating to discover the history of severe earthquakes around the edge of the basin, including some severe ones that destroyed European settlements along the northern coast of South America. I was also amazed to discover fault lines running along the northern coast of our neighbour island of Hispaniola. I agree with you that better monitoring of both earthquakes and volcanos in the Caribbean should take place. Perhaps there's a place for Caricom to organize something?
what an amazing group of people;like a cocktail party on the last voyage of the Titanic.What was that ripping noise?'Nother drink please,as I was saying...
RE:171. Bjanmama - It would be interesting to know what the Mayan astronomers saw. They may have been puzzling it out, and it may indeed be work incomplete. Or...... Yikes!
Artic Passage followed by Old man & the storm (Katrina) on PBS now est.
Quoting STXpat:
what an amazing group of people;like a cocktail party on the last voyage of the Titanic.What was that ripping noise?'Nother drink please,as I was saying...


Make mine a double :)
POST 173 This was tonight's topic at dinner volcanos & earthquakes in the carib.... - Bjanmama - we were all fascinated and surprised... pulled out maps and looked at faults

Rather lively in here tonight -- home & blog
Quoting surfmom:
POST 173 This was tonight's topic at dinner volcanos & earthquakes in the carib.... - Bjanmama - we were all fascinated and surprised... pulled out maps and looked at faults

Rather lively in here tonight -- home & blog


Agree - Might want to bookmark this one, when it is archived.

Thanks for all the information tonight, y'all. Lot's of food for thought.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow??? Florida :) umm No, say it ain't so :)

Just how cold are we talking about??
Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP!!!!!
Blasphemy, I'm telling on you.....
STL, where are you???



ROFLMAO
Shortly after the storm in Myanmar I watched a report on CNN, believe it was a British journalist. Got some of the locals to take him up the delta, showed the devastation in some areas, on the same day the government was doing one of their dog and pony shows. The pictures that he got were unreal, and it was also dangerous. The military were guarding the hard hit areas, arresting those who were trying to report on it. It made quite an impression on me.
I agree folks a very interesting discussion. Re #173 Bahahurican- the Caribbean Meteorological Serivces. a main centre here in Barbados down the road from me and the Seismic Institute located at UWI in Trinidad are one of the few ongoing real regional efforts, there are branches throughout the region usually located at the airports where they have the most sophisticated equipment;
re #175 KEH: I know- wish we'd translate more before 2012- at least the code is now broken-
you knew that? That's another fascinating story
#178- what wonderful dinner conversations you have, so good for the kids ( or in your case- the young men!) If you look at the physical maps of the oceans and look at the eastern part of the Americas espcially the Caribbean sea areas you will see all the underwatermountains and volcanos that make up the islands of the region and also the links to the mainland and the faults etc. There is a large myth out there that I think I saw on the discovery Channel that Cuba is the northern rim of the lost continent of Atlantis ( I guess that's why they call the hotel that in the Bahamas Baha??
re#176 Skypony: I was just going to say that on PBS tonight right now there is a fascinating programme on- ( hold your breath) ta-da! GLOBAL DIMMING! it's on NOVA- so whenever your PBS channel has NOVA it should be on? anyway, one can look at PBS.org- ( of course, despite the apparent contradiction there is a link to that ( I shall say it quietly GW- very interesting) I'm off to do the unthinkable this time of night- housecleaning with guests early tomorrow morning- yuck- might just pass and get up really early- fade fast after 10- we're an hour ahead of the east coast. Night all.
Up in Allentown, PA we're about to get a major ice storm...it's 27F with heavy freezing rain about to move in
G'Night Bjanmama
I am out as well..

Enjoyed it everyone.
Surf, quite a few residents who protested the government's handling of the whole Nargis thing were arrested, too, IIRC . . .
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow??? Florida :) umm No, say it ain't so :)
Just jumped in.....snow in FL - please bring it on especially in Central FL.
Wait!

Breaking GW news!

brb...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Surf, quite a few residents who protested the government's handling of the whole Nargis thing were arrested, too, IIRC . . .


:( had not heard of those protests either..*sigh*

I'm looking for some ice cream and Rum - pirate girl dessert -- then sleep Good night ALL
Eiffel Tower Closed, Flights Hit by Snow!


A winter storm brought blankets of snow across Europe on Monday, forcing the closure of an icy Eiffel Tower in Paris and causing flight cancellations. Up to 10 centimetres of snow was recorded in parts of France, the national weather service said. Most areas, including Paris, got about half that amount. French authorities issued traffic alerts in around 30 regions because of icy roads. The Eiffel Tower, one of Paris’ main tourist attractions, was closed because of slippery conditions.

“We can’t put down salt because it’s metallic,” Eiffel Tower press officer Isabelle Esnous said. “We can’t use sand either because it risks getting into the elevator (cogs).” The cold, she said, was no problem, but snow could be dangerous.

Photobucket

Hundreds of passenger were stranded Monday at the main Paris airport of Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle by snow after scores of flights were cancelled. Northern, central and western France were hit by snow and freezing rain during Monday, causing accidents, one fatal. Weather services warned that the thermometer would fall further during the week as icy air arrived from Siberia and Scandinavia. Temperatures could fall to between minus five and minus 10 centigrade (23 and 14 Fahrenheit) in the north and northeast, forecasters said. The cold snap could last until the middle of the month in much of the country. National elecricity consumption hit a record peak early Monday evening. In the Paris area transport authorities had to suspend some bus services as snow and freezing rain made roads impassable. At one point, heavy goods traffic moving towards Paris was limited.

In Germany, heavy snowfall snarled road traffic and flight delays and cancellations at the country’s international airports. Duesseldorf International Airport said no flights were allowed in or out between 6am and 9am local time on Monday because clearing crews were unable to keep up with the snow. More than 30 flights were cancelled because of the bad weather, airport spokesman Christian Witt said. Up to 10 centimetres of snow was reported in Duesseldorf and about 15 centimetres in Potsdam, just outside Berlin. Flights from Frankfurt International Airport were delayed as much as an hour but none had to be cancelled. Traffic stopped for hours on many of Germany’s autobahns as snowploughs struggled to clear the roads amid heavy post-holiday traffic. Germany’s National Weather Service is forecasting subzero temperatures for the coming days. Snow also fell across Britain. Children built snowmen in parts of England, including Cambridge.

Just finished watching the PBS program about the Lower 9th Ward family (the Getridges?). I found particularly sad the imagery of the neighbourhood school abandoned to rot. To me it symbolized the decision by bureaucrats to ensure that the neighbourhood will die. I remember a few years ago, when all of this was unfolding in the wake of Katrina, someone said that the "powers that be" wanted to get the 9th Ward residents out of the area permanently so that the land could be bought for a song and then developed for other use - at a huge profit. The story I saw tonight makes such a prospect seem more of a reality than it did at the time.

Good night, everyone.
Transcript Providers

Return to Transcripts main page

ANDERSON COOPER 360 DEGREES Link

Anna Nicole Smith Dies in Florida; New Orleans Battles Violent Crime Wave

Aired February 8, 2007 - 22:00 ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


Flagging post #193 for off topic!

"Breaking GW news!"

Some folks just can't grasp the difference between weather and climate. I say stick with it Vort - maybe you'll figure it out one of these years. Not that it really matters, of course.
Go for it pangean!
Quoting vortfix:
Flagging post #193 for off topic!

Totally wicked . . .

Pat, the whole time I was watching I was thinking about u and all the struggles u had to get your house put back together. I know the lower 9th got the worst of it, but I'll bet there isn't a neighbourhood in New Orleans where somebody couldn't tell a similar story to Mr. Getridge about the difficulties faced after Katrina . . .
Leaches are everywhere y'all...even your precious NOLA.
"Go for it pangean!"

OK Vortfix! You too!

Phunny Phorty Phellow's seem to be missing one Clown..rider

Oh wait,..never mind .. I see Him now.

LOL




Vort~ That's old news. Eiffel Tower has been closed a day or 2 now:P I think Germany is having some pretty severe artic conditions too. Heating oil fights abound over there.

BJanmama~ Good stuff all the volcano, plates, Caribbean info. I've seen Dimming the Sun. A must see for anyone with a facination for pan evaperation rates or a desire to learn about arosols. Artic Passage I'd forgot I'd seen. The British explores that got their ships stuck in the ice for years & died. They do show the town of Resolute, I think where the guy from Eh2r takes his sun disk pics from. Old Man in the storm..wow. Gives a feel for life in NOLA post Katrina.
I don't know how Patcrap gets away with posting that stuff on Dr. Masters blog!

Nice to see you too Skye...LOL

You guys are loosing it tonight....
193. Patrap 3:05 AM GMT on January 07, 2009

Sheesh Pat.. learn how to use the link button.
Whats a Link?

...I'll ask around..

One must "mirror" the feeling..

I thought it was a "Whale" of a post..


LOL

Jan 06, 2009

Cold Streak Sets New Record

- City Experiences 24 Consecutive Days of -25 C or Lower

Rod Nickel, The StarPhoenix


How’s this for cold comfort? Saskatoon’s deep freeze is likely the longest streak of low temperatures below -25 C that has numbed this city since record-keeping began in 1892. The 24-day streak started cruelly Dec. 13 after relatively mild temperatures and continued at least through Monday, said David Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist. “That’s the thing that’s brutal,” Phillips said from Toronto, where he was enjoying a temperature of -4. “We can all handle a few (cold) days. It’s the long haul that wears you down.

“It’s really a shocker, the duration of the cold.” Phillips said he couldn’t find a longer cold snap in Saskatoon’s recorded weather history during a look through the records Monday. Even during the infamous January of 1950, when temperatures hit -46 and -45 (not counting any wind chill), the cold streak of -25 or lower lasted “only” 21 days. The first two mild weeks of December kept the month from being Saskatoon’s coldest ever. It still averaged -20.6, the sixth-coldest December on record and the most frigid since 1983.

Prince Albert was slightly colder in December, with an average temperature of -21.4, while Regina registered -18. Neither of those burgs have suffered a -25 streak approaching Saskatoon’s, Phillips said. The normal average temperature for Saskatoon in December is -14.3. The historic streak could end today. Environment Canada was forecasting a low of -23 for today, before another drop Wednesday.

There’s no good news on the horizon. January is expected to be colder than its normal mean temperature of -17, said Environment Canada meteorologist Bob Cormier. The three-month period of January through March is also expected to be colder than normal, he said. The frigid temperatures and the bad timing of the New Year’s Eve snowstorm has left city snow crews well behind schedule. As of Monday, snowplows still hadn’t touched almost one-third of the priority streets, which range from arteries such as Circle Drive and Eighth Street to bus routes and minor collector streets. The major arteries have been cleared once, but may need a second pass, said Gaston Gourdeau, manager of the city’s public works branch. Ninety per cent of bus routes are cleared, but many minor collector streets still haven’t seen a snowplow.

“We’re looking forward to warmer temperatures,” Gourdeau said. “It’s been tough for everybody.” The New Year’s Eve storm was a double-whammy for snowplow operators. Many city staff were on holidays. Hydraulic parts of heavy equipment respond more slowly, like everything else, in the cold, forcing crews to get less done than they normally would. Gourdeau predicts snow crews will be in some neighbourhoods clearing out trouble spots by the end of the week. He said he decided against implementing a street parking ban to speed up snow clearing for two reasons. The city hasn’t had the staff to guarantee cleanup within 72 hours until this week. In frigid weather, it’s also difficult to ask residents to move cars off the street to spots where plug-ins may be unavailable, he said.

Jan 05, 2009
Long Underwear Recommended in Kuwait as Greenhouse Effect “Cold Wave” Hits
By Nawara Fattahova, Staff Writer Kuwait Times

The extremely cold weather continues to persist, and people can expect historically cold temperatures this season. Yesterday, the temperature reached five degrees below zero at Salmi and Bubyan Island. The temperature at Mina Abdullah reached minus 2 degree. People should be careful these days. “The very cold weather will remain this month, and people should stay at home as much as possible. If they go out, they should wear thermal innerwear to protect themselves from the wind and they should also cover their heads and faces if possible as the wind may carry viruses and bacteria that may be in the air,” said meteorologist Eisa Ramadan.

The low temperatures have also damaged local agricultural products. “It hasn’t rained in a few months and the land is dry. We are now facing even more problems as the temperature dipped below zero, which caused the destruction of about 80 percent of the agricultural production at Wafra and Abdali farms. Tomato, potato, green capsicum, egg plant, zucchini and beans were most affected by the weather. Also, 50 percent of crops grown in green houses were also destroyed,” said Mohammed, owner of one of the farms supplying the local market.

The prices of vegetables and fruits are expected to increase as there is a shortage in local production. “Still, the shortage is not so noticeable today, but we may notice it in the coming days. We are importing from other Arab countries anyway, but now we may increase the imported quantity,” said Hasan, an employee at the Andalus Cooperative Society.

Extreme temperature changes around the world have been commonplace for many years. “For instance, the heavy rains that took place last April here in Kuwait were caused by very strong winds that reached the power of hurricanes. Storms of that nature have not been seen in Kuwait for more than ten years. Also, Saudi Arabia witnessed heavy rains two months ago, and now it’s completely dry. The greenhouse effect, which can be blamed on modern industry, is responsible for these changes, and this problem will continue to develop in the coming years,” Eisa Ramadan said.

Many people camping in the desert suffered from some of the coldest weather in Kuwait. The temperature was at zero or below in most desert areas. “I went last night with my friends to our camp in the desert, but I couldn’t stay overnight as the weather was freezing. I think I won’t be visiting the camp much until the weather gets a little warmer,” said Waleed, a 25-year-old Kuwaiti. Ramadan also warned people to avoid sea trips at this time and said they were dangerous. “People must take the warning of meteorologists seriously as it may save their lives,” he said. Read more here.


Jan 04, 2009
How Al Gore Saved Christmas
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit

Obviously it’s impossible to avoid the old chestnuts on our TV sets these days. I saw the original version of Miracle on 34th St for the umpteenth time the other day, noticing something for the first time that is a sign of the times. The judge’s political handler, advising him of the political risks of the case, warned him that a decision against Kris Kringle would draw the ire of toy-makers, all unionized and all voters. How quaint.

It’s also impossible to avoid the snow. We got hit with another snow storm yesterday and, for the first time in my life, I was pondering whether I should be thinking about planning my snow banks so that I’d have a place for the snow later in the season. (Through my life, it’s never been an issue in Toronto, we don’t get that much snow as we’re in a bit of a shadow and what we get tends to come and go.) But last year we had snow banks into April and it became hard to figure out where to put the snow.

Quoting Patrap:
Whats a Link?



Thats what I thought.
I'll give y'all a breather....I have a lot more.

It's a New Year!!

Quoting Patrap:
Whats a Link?

...I'll ask around..

One must "mirror" the feeling..

I thought it was a "Whale" of a post..


LOL



Hmmmmmm.....


Cyclone Nargis affected Ayeyarwady Division, Myanmar

After Nargis in Myanmar Part 9 of the Graphic and up-close tragedy soon after the Cyclone struck.

Video Link

Quoting conchygirl:
At least the quakes come quickly and are gone quickly unlike our hurricanes that drag on! Been through both! Although, we do have time to prepare for the hurricanes. Almost everywhere has some issue that they deal with!


Which is why I live in Michigan. The only things we get are tornadoes (what are the chances of one of those hitting your house), and floods if you live by a river (which I don't)

Surprising Return of North Atlantic Circulation Pump


One of the "pumps" contributing to the ocean's global circulation suddenly switched on again last winter for the first time this decade, scientists reported Tuesday (Dec. 23) in Nature Geoscience. The finding surprised scientists, who had been wondering if global warming was inhibiting the pump-which, in turn, would cause other far-reaching climate changes.
Yay~ Monday they gave GOES 12 another try & it responded. They said they would hold off abit to make the switch back from GOES 13 TO 12 for GOES EAST. It's done.. It's been weeks of a smeared Central Atlantic~ no more!


AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070304Z - 070500Z

STORMS ALONG SRN END OF LINE ACROSS SW AL INTO THE N CNTRL GULF HAVE
UNDERGONE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST HOUR.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH
SW AL INTO THE N CNTRL GULF. LIGHTNING REMAINS INACTIVE ALONG MUCH
OF THE LINE. AN EXCEPTION IS ALONG SRN PORTIONS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH LIGHTNING AND
REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR. ACTIVITY
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR HAS
BEEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM TALLAHASSEE AND ATLANTA SHOWING MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH A
PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 700 MB IN WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...ASCENT AND COOLING IN VICINITY
OF THE LINE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN AND COOL THE INVERSION
LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH AN
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. TRENDS ARE BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/07/2009
A well needed asset..back in operation.

Good news there skyepony.

How weak a forecast is this??





A cold front with a pre-frontal trough is expected to move over the region Wednesday, producing a good chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may produce gusty winds, periods of brief heavy rainfall, and lightning. Winds will increase ahead of the front and remain breezy behind the front through Wednesday Night with elevated seas over the Eastern Gulf producing hazardous boating conditions and dangerous rip currents along area beaches.

Speaking of sat data, if any of you noticed missing ASCAT data, it is only the distribution of it that is down (as opposed to the satellite itself or the instrument):

"UPDATE: ESPC received an E-mail from EUMETSAT informing us that:

There was a communications link problem preventing EUM and KNMI distributing the data to users via EUMETCast.

this outage was for EARS (EUMETSAT ATOVS Retransmission Service)
regional data. Not the global data.

*Details of the Outage:

*ASCAT data is currently unavailable until further notice.

*Data Affected by the Outage:
*
ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) data

*Date and Time of the Outage:
*
1/5/2008, 1852 UTC, 01:52 PM, EST

*Length of the Outage:
*
Until further notice"
producing a good chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.


woohooo!

Interesting footnote here..

GOES-13 first Image on orbit. Link



Pat, you know about this?

Pat Shingleton (WBRZ, Baton Rouge):
"Researchers from the University of Alabama at Huntsville, Florida, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, North Florida, Texas Tech, Florida International and Clemson met Monday at LSU’s Patrick F. Taylor Hall for a two-day Constructing a Digital Hurricane conference. I interview- ed Dr. Marc Levitan, director of the LSU Hurricane Center. Mark said in our telecast on WBRZ these universities transported tracking vehicles during episodes of severe weather. They carry instrumentation to collect wind and storm surge data in land-falling hurricanes and includes high-resolution mobile research Doppler radar and deployable monitoring systems. Data from previous storms is helpful in future weather situations."
Those University folks have the Monies to deploy Field Storm Chasers big time.

Maybe we can get that done..,Lord knows we have plenty of volunteers to Man them.



A comparison of GOES-12 and GOES-13 visible channel images (Java animation) centered over northeastern Minnesota on 25 December 2006 shows the improvement in navigation accuracy with the new GOES-13 satellite. Note how the surface features (such as frozen/snow-covered interior lakes, and the Lake Superior shoreline) appear to have significantly less image-to-image movement on GOES-13 versus GOES-12 — this is a result of changes to the GOES-13 spacecraft bus, which now has an improved Image Navigation and Registration (INR) system that uses star trackers to provide precision image navigation and registration information. This improved navigation will allow for better accuracy of satellite products such as satellite derived winds (or “atmospheric motion vectors”). Link

225. beell


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACON
GEORGIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
ERN AL TO E OF MOB AS STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED...THE VERY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTS EMBEDDED ROTATING UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
BAND OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG WITH WIND
DAMAGE...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL AS ACTIVITY
SHIFT EWD 20-25KT... WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
Wanka, Wanka Beell!!

Oh stop that stuff!
LOL
228. P451
Quoting Patrap:
Interesting footnote here..

GOES-13 first Image on orbit. Link





*drool*!!!!!
229. P451
Meanwhile, My sis, who lives in Westchester NY, just east of Peekskill, told me about an hour ago they're getting SLAMMED. She said they had about 3 inches of snow, an inch or so of sleet, and now it's been raining, heavy, for hours...but, they're at 28 degrees, and it's just sticking to everything, and they've started to hear branches if not trees shattering in the woods around them.

Not looking good.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
18:00 PM FST January 7 2009
===============================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (999 hPa) located at 16.0S 169.0E reported moving east at 5 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

System remains disorganized but deep convection remains closer to the low level circulation center. TD FOUR lies in a sheared environment with 20-25 knot winds at 250 hPa. An active convergence zone lies to the north of the depression with 24 knots at the surface. A southeasterly surge is developing to the south.

Development is expected to remain unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper level trough from the west which will maintain a sheared environment. TD FOUR may still develop as a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
GOES 12 is back? YAY! like an old friend.

I know, I know...13 is supposta be better, but something about GOES 12 just has a spot in my heart.
P451- no, not sounding good. Good luck to your family.
Nasty storms in the southeast
Uhoh...looks like all the brgging about the gorgeous weather is going to bite me in the butt this morning...
Morning all:
Nice clear morning here and no fog. Temps cooler than yesterday morning and less humidity. Looks like West Coast of Florida will see a bit nastier weather today.
I see the weather moving in -- going to be an interesting barn work day - hope to be able to work the horses out in between the weather. Hoping for some rain..... it's been weeks... all the fields and pastures have been wailing for moisture. Rain also affords me the time to clean all the tack and saddles
- SWFL SRQ Partly sunny with slight chance of thunderstorms early in the morning...then partly sunny with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Breezy. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west 15 to 25 mph onshore Brief Showers 75°F n the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Swell
4ft @ 5secs
Wind
20mph

Temperature
Sea 70°F
Air 75°F

and yes there are waves...... but work calls me in the opposite direction.............oh well
Conchy -- What's the weather going to be like for Disney???? Wind????
131. BJanmama : "Now, can anyone tell me what hapened to the Bengal tiger Reserve in Myanmar and if a significant number of the population survived? And what about their environment?"

Conflict between tigers and humans in the Sunderbans
SunderbansTigerProject
Talk about a fast moving squall line???
Checked IR loop back home in Columbia Co, (N)Fl.
It traveled from west county line to east county line in 26 minutes.
Think I'll stay in the Glades another week.
That squall line crossing Florida and Georgia is WIERD! It is very narrow and very intense on the Radar. I don't think I have seen a single line so narrow and so RED before.
And heading my way!
240. It just passed over where we are - INTENSE rain for a few minutes, no thunder, no lightning, HEAVY wind...and then poof...it stopped raining.
240 b4
Where are you?
This not an uncommon sight for Gomex sgualls.
If you can see one on the horizon, you probably won't make it back to the dock before you get wet, unless your boat will do 60mph in a foul sea...LOL
Quoting surfmom:
Conchy -- What's the weather going to be like for Disney???? Wind????
Unfortunately, I am thinking it is going to be a miserable windy 1/2. Not looking forward to that, but temps should be good.
Quoting theshepherd:
Talk about a fast moving squall line???
Checked IR loop back home in Columbia Co, (N)Fl.
It traveled from west county line to east county line in 26 minutes.
Think I'll stay in the Glades another week.


Good morning,
Yep, On radar it was just a bit east of Colombia, SC (100 some miles from Charleston). Took the garbage out, came back in and it is almost to the coast. - Makes me wonder if I looked at it right the first time.
High tide is not until 4pm, so I am rather glad it is moving fast.
Like the rest of the SE Coast we are under a high wind advisory.
Barometric pressure has fallen and winds have picked up.

TheShep -- nice new Avatar



I have been feeling like a cloud is over my head for the past few weeks.. I wonder why?





Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
Orca: Sorry, but glad that cloud is over you! LOL
Well, better a warm wind then a chilling one Conchy -- guess you just have to conserve running into it and let loose when it's on your back... FIND some big dude to draft behind.

weather is rapidly changing here -- going to have to be careful not to get caught in the line--wondering how long it will take to get to SWFL. I'm going to do all other barn chores and wait for it to pass rather then try to get to the track and back before it hits.

I'm out --work awaits and I'm feeling grumbly......so wanted to get wet & ride a few waves.... another day

Remember Portlight has their Conference Call this Morning - check StormJunkie's blog for information
Quoting conchygirl:
Orca: Sorry, but glad that cloud is over you! LOL


I am glad its raining.. mind you the flooding is pretty bad.. take 2.5 - 3 feet of snow.. switch from freezing to 10 C in one day, then add 2-3 inches of rain... and watch the fun start.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am glad its raining.. mind you the flooding is pretty bad.. take 2.5 - 3 feet of snow.. switch from freezing to 10 C in one day, then add 2-3 inches of rain... and watch the fun start.
You all could be experiencing quite a mess soon! Take care.
207. vortfix : "Cold Streak Sets New Record"

You do understand that ClimateChange is an expectable result of GlobalWarming? In this particular case, the normal three poles which control wind patterns during NorthernHemisphere winters has shifted to two, with the northern PacificOcean pole moving eastward into Siberia.

Since land stores summer heat FAR less effectively than ocean, it is to be expected that wind originating in central Siberia will produce colder weather than wind originating in the central NorthernPacific.
Quoting conchygirl:
You all could be experiencing quite a mess soon! Take care.


Soon? They just closed "the" road to Sooke, which is basically a bedroom community of Victoria.. its under 3' of water. That cuts off about 5000 people who live there.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Soon? They just closed "the" road to Sooke, which is basically a bedroom community of Victoria.. its under 3' of water. That cuts off about 5000 people who live there.

Yikes!
What's it looking like at your house, Orca
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Yikes!
What's it looking like at your house, Orca


I live basically on a rock bluff... If I get flooded.. Victoria would already be living on an Ark. My business is a different matter, but thats why we have insurance :)

I would assume the storm drains are running at max, and I will see when I get there... but its only prone to flooding if the storm drains plug and the parking lot floods.
Snow here too, a bit thicker than the other day... not too bad though.

However, latest run here for next week is hinting at possibly a Windstorm coming our way... pressure around 950mb, winds seem pretty high for the forecast. Lots of rain (and heavy snow a couple of days before.)

I certainly hope not. That's the day I have to trek into Uni for an exam...
Yikes Orca! Be safe and take care~
2009 is expected to be one of the top-five warmest years on record, despite continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Niña.

According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4 °C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.

During La Niña, cold waters rise to the surface to cool the ocean and land surface temperatures. The 2009 forecast includes an updated decadal forecast using a Met Office climate model. This indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend, with an increasing probability of record temperatures after 2009.

Professor Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña have a significant influence on global surface temperature. Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Niña has given way to a weaker La Niña. Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Niño develops."

These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends as Professor Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, explains: "The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period 2001-2007, with an average of 14.44 °C, was 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."

Notes

* The Met Office Hadley Centre advises the UK government on climate change research. Its work is, in part, jointly funded by Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs); DECC (Dept for Energy and Climate Change and MoD (Ministry of Defence).
* The Met Office, in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, maintains a global temperature record which is used in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
* Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles, solar effects and natural variations of the oceans.
* The 1961-90 global average mean temperature is 14.0 °C.
* Global temperature for 2009 is expected to be 14.44 °C, the warmest since 2005, when the value was 14.48 °C.
* The warmest year on record is 1998, which was 14.52 °C, a year dominated by an extreme El Niño.
* Over the nine years, 2000-2008, since the Met Office has issued forecasts of annual global temperature the mean value of the forecast error is 0.06 °C.
* The first Met Office decadal forecast to 2014 was issued in 2007.
* Interannual variations of global surface temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of El Niño and the cooling influences of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. 2008, with a provisionally observed temperature of 14.31 °C compared with the forecast value of 14.37 °C.


...Link
Quoting Cotillion:
Snow here too, a bit thicker than the other day... not too bad though.

However, latest run here for next week is hinting at possibly a Windstorm coming our way... pressure around 950mb, winds seem pretty high for the forecast. Lots of rain (and heavy snow a couple of days before.)

I certainly hope not. That's the day I have to trek into Uni for an exam...

Sounds like a real mess. When you say 'trek', I hope you do not mean walk! Though driving would not be a picnic either.

Train, probably. Assuming they're running... I'll find my way somehow.. even if I have to walk!
260. IKE
Long-range discussion from Birmingham,AL...

BEYOND MONDAY...A PATTERN EVOLUTION REALLY BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
WITH A BULGING WEST COAST RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
DEVELOPING. SEVERAL RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK UNDER THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS REALLY STEPS OUT
ON A LIMB WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST 1000-850 THICKNESSES I`VE EVER
SEEN (THIS FAR SOUTH) BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GONE IS THE
GULF LOW FROM YESTERDAY`S 00Z GFS RUN WHICH ADDS TO THE
CREDIBILITY OF THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS...LOOK FOR A CHANGE TO BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.


Long-term discussion from Jackson,MS.....

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION SUGGESTING LOWER TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS AND 20S FOR HIGHS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND WHAT THE COLD AIR WILL LOOK LIKE ON THE
NEXT FEW RUNS.


since 8pm last night:
0.75 inches of wet snow
1.00 inches of freezing rain
should change over to rain within the hour
262. IKE
Had a third(.33), inches of rain this morning when the cold-front moved through, here in the Florida panhandle. Had winds gusting to 40-45 mph. Branches down throughout my yard.
Forecast Discussion from Kingston Ny

THE PLAGUE OF "SPLIT STORMS" AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES...A
TREND THAT STARTED LAST WINTER. THE OVERALL TELECONNECTION PATTERN
IS UNFORTUNATELY SIMILAR TO LAST WINTER AND IT IS NOW
OFFICIAL...THAT WE HAVE TRENDED BACK TO A LA NINA PACIFIC PATTERN
ONCE MORE. A LA NINA PATTERN FAVORS A VERY STRONG PACIFIC
JET...POUNDING BOTH COASTS WITH WINTER STORMS...WHILE SPARING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING THIS GO
AROUND.
Quoting IKE:
Had a third(.33), inches of rain this morning when the cold-front moved through, here in the Florida panhandle. Had winds gusting to 40-45 mph. Branches down throughout my yard.

Looks like it is headed our way this afternoon-
------------
A cold front that's sweeping across the state will make its presence known in Brevard County this afternoon, bringing in wind gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph and the chance for thunderstorms.

Inregard to the "Mayan End of Times", it's actually the completion of one full cycle of the Mayan calendar.
The Mayans have no prophesy of disaster or transcendence or etc for that date. Such predictions are fantasized out of thin air by Westerners.

The Mayans were remarkable astronomers. Rather than basing their calendar on the solstice*alone, the Mayans based their calendar on the Sun, the Moon, and Venus. When all three reach the same positions as at the beginning of their count of days, one full cycle of their calendar is completed, and repetition of the calendar (and of the positions of the Sun and Moon and Venus) begins.

The Mayans were a hair off, but only a miniscule fraction of the Gregorian(Western)calendar in matching astronomical positions against dates.

* With leap days added to make up for the mismatch between day length and year length.
Don't forget leap seconds that are now added since atomic time has been kept.
267. IKE
Next Tuesday and Wednesday the bottom drops out in the eastern USA....freezing cold...according to the 12Z GFS at 162 hours.....

Hello.
I would say that the dry-season is here today.
temp 88f
humidity 37 %
wind ENE 22 knt.

There is a totally different "feel" to the weather, compared to 2 days ago.
Looking at the satelite images, seems to confirm that.
Looks like the cold front is finally heading for us here in SOFLA. Shiver me timbers LOL
Hi all - just stopping by to check in. Look at the temperature difference between Miami & Tampa - Tampa is at 67, Miami at 82. The cold front in hanging out right in between the two.

Can't wait till it finally gets here.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi all - just stopping by to check in. Look at the temperature difference between Miami & Tampa - Tampa is at 67, Miami at 82. The cold front in hanging out right in between the two.

Can't wait till it finally gets here.
Me too Zoo - it is quite warm up here yet in Brevard. Wind is sure kicking up so assuming it is on the way!
Good Afternoon everyone it is a beautiful day in Barbados 86F scattered clouds, winds coming from the south, pressure 29.97 and falling and best of all 53% humidity- thank god- maybe some of us down here who suffer so badly from arthritis will begin to get some relief.
Re #238 aspectre thanks so much for the link I will follow it up! Re #201 Skyepony: Thanks, but I fogot to mention that on the website stormcarib.com which has correspondents from all the islands, the correspondent from Montseraat has recent photos of the volcano erupting. Sections of the population were evacuated again for safety precautions. this is this past week. I though the programme on the Gettridges heartrending and can only hope that there will be more hue and outcry when the new admin. comes in and that they begin to take these people's issues seriously. Also Mississippi, the forgotten land. the US certainly isn't Myanmar with its brutal dictatorship, but the slackness and the greed and refusal to do the right thing by the people of New Orleans and Mississippi is an ongoing shameful chapter.
Hey Conchy - looks like it will be your way soon. Spoke to my daughter in Maine - they are getting that nasty winter storm. Snow, sleet, ice - keeps changing back and forth.

Quoting zoomiami:
Hey Conchy - looks like it will be your way soon. Spoke to my daughter in Maine - they are getting that nasty winter storm. Snow, sleet, ice - keeps changing back and forth.

Yes, it is on the way quickly and looks like it will come and go in a hurry. Rain will be good though. Bet you are glad you aren't in Maine right now~
Well I would totally chicken out going sailing today...BLOWING hard here - wind gusts must be at 35+...and am learning I have some dead trees that need to come down.
Quoting melwerle:
Well I would totally chicken out going sailing today...BLOWING hard here - wind gusts must be at 35+...and am learning I have some dead trees that need to come down.
Bad news for you Mel. It came through here really quickly, light rain and thinking it is done with us. Appears heading out of area and perhaps on its way down to Zoo!
HurrikanEB~ We've been in La Nina conditiond for about 3 weeks now. Dove in hard this time Region 3,4 is already -1.1 (monday). My guess would be about 2 weeks til the next moderating Kelvin wave comes to slow the dive a little. ESPI is -1.20. Up from -1.24 yesterday, so that trends well to my guess.

BJanmama~ I'll have to check out the pics. Will be interesting to see if any other help goes NOLA's way when the new administration comes in.

Front came thru I don't think i had 40kts, pretty tame, wish it had rained more.
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi all - just stopping by to check in. Look at the temperature difference between Miami & Tampa - Tampa is at 67, Miami at 82. The cold front in hanging out right in between the two.

Can't wait till it finally gets here.


Not to much fan fair with this weak front....Some scattered showers and a few gusts to maybe 30-35mph as mentioned by the NWS. Mid to upper 50's in south florida dade/broward.

Hi-Res visible loop of front
I posted something about this a couple of weeks ago, but I have stumbled across the full article today.

Fully simulating a TC cyclogenesis by running a global cloud-resolving model. Most of our current models use a parameterization approach for clouds. They do not actually calculate the clouds physical effects, but approximate their existence and feedbacks in a general area due to the existence of those clouds.

Now the Japanese are running a global cloud-resolving model. This allows them to correctly resolve the MJO. They successfully spun up the model 20 simulated days before cyclogenesis occurred and the model correctly handled the MJO and the resulting typhoon. What if we had a reliable model of cyclogenesis 3 weeks out? Awesome.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Here in port st lucie ,fl it is getting pretty nasty here.
15 degree drop in a matter of 5min here in martin county. Love it when fronts come through. Good snook fishing conditions tonight.
HaHaGuy: Welcome back, we haven't seen you here in a long while. We sure welcome this cooler weather.
Wow, we have about 15 cm (6 in) of snow on the ground and more is coming later this week. The thing that really caught my eye, though, was the pressure reading...lower than 983 mb and still dropping!!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow, we have about 15 cm (6 in) of snow on the ground and more is coming later this week. The thing that really caught my eye, though, was the pressure reading...lower than 983 mb and still dropping!!


Snowing here in MI wasn't too bad, less than an inch, but you get lake effect, so I don't know if what I got has any bearing on you.
Today feels like the hottest its been in South Florida for two months. In fact i cant think of a more pleasent winter than this year so far.

Hope that front doesnt knock down any more coconuts in my yard. The trash can is already full. And so is the fridge :)
Quoting bbrain2008:
Today feels like the hottest its been in South Florida for two months. In fact i cant think of a more pleasent winter than this year so far.

Hope that front doesnt knock down any more coconuts in my yard. The trash can is already full. And so is the fridge :)


Maybe some ice could help keep them in place...grumble...
265aspectre -- thank you for clarifying that the Mayans did NOT have prophesy's of the world ending... and indeed it was the westerners who tagged that fable on to their work!

SWFL/Surfers: Currently we have some knee high slop with stiff onshore's. Squall lines passed our area mid afternoon bringing more gusty wind (gusting up to 30knts). Looks like tomorrow the wind will lay down and we could have some clean lines pounding our sandbars ..." hey boss, I'm not feeling good, coming down with some type of swellitis!".
Gulf Temp 67

Out East of I75 SWFL
Horses were not happy to be worked out in between squall lines and gusts of wind..... Young Buck, my son and I had some dicey moments....horses spooking and naughtiness.... nipping each other and trying all their tricks to head back to the barn and hang out under the trees. They all got their blankets this evening.
aloha HahaGuy
Hi and a belated happy new year to everyone. I haven't had the time to check on this blog a lot recently but today I've taken my time to read through.

Thanks a lot for posting the link to the article about the return of the N-Atlantic Circulation Pump. It was a really interesting read and another step towards understanding the global circulation in the oceans.

Related to this topic I have another link to add. During the Challenger conference at the university Bangor (Sept. 8-11) I attended the public lecture held by Harry Bryden about the Monitoring the Atlantic Overturning Circulation at 26°N (read the abstract).
I was quite surprised to hear that the Rapid measurements could not find evidence for the feared slowing down of the Overturning, which would mean less warm water is transported in the Gulf stream from the GOM and the Caribbean Sea towards Europe thus leading to a cooler climate in Europe. (the title on the announcement poster was an something like "Could 'The Day after tomorrow' become reality" or so, I don't really remember it)

Prof. Bryden actually said that there seems to be quite a random variation since measurements began and so far they haven't found any annual or seasonal patterns, so no, currently there are no signs that the movie could become reality in the next few years. And even if, it would probably take decades.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I posted something about this a couple of weeks ago, but I have stumbled across the full article today.

Fully simulating a TC cyclogenesis by running a global cloud-resolving model. Most of our current models use a parameterization approach for clouds. They do not actually calculate the clouds physical effects, but approximate their existence and feedbacks in a general area due to the existence of those clouds.

Now the Japanese are running a global cloud-resolving model. This allows them to correctly resolve the MJO. They successfully spun up the model 20 simulated days before cyclogenesis occurred and the model correctly handled the MJO and the resulting typhoon. What if we had a reliable model of cyclogenesis 3 weeks out? Awesome.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Thanks, atmo. I remember the discussion about this some time back, and I'm quite interested to read the entire article.
Quoting hurristat:


Snowing here in MI wasn't too bad, less than an inch, but you get lake effect, so I don't know if what I got has any bearing on you.

There was a Texas low that moved right over us, so it gave us more snow, on top of the ice pellets and snow we already have. Previous Texas lows have given us more rain than snow, but this one gave us snow. A week from now, we could have more than 45 cm (18 in) of snow on the ground, just as long as the snow doesn't turn to rain anytime within the next week.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I live basically on a rock bluff... If I get flooded.. Victoria would already be living on an Ark. My business is a different matter, but thats why we have insurance :)

I would assume the storm drains are running at max, and I will see when I get there... but its only prone to flooding if the storm drains plug and the parking lot floods.

Wow, I head you guys got about 100 mm of rain, on top of the 15 cm of snow (Vancouver).
Check this out!

18Z GFS has a 935mb low pressure near the Davis Strait. It originates from a very energetic shortwave trough moving off the East Coast that will be ushering in the arctic airmass across the eastern US next week.

There's a small potential for a big time blizzard next week in the Northeast. We're talking very small, but if everything comes together right i.e. shortwave dives just a tad further southwest of where models project it to currently, this storm will get cranking before it reaches the Canadian Maritimes.
Quoting hurricane23:


Not to much fan fair with this weak front....Some scattered showers and a few gusts to maybe 30-35mph as mentioned by the NWS. Mid to upper 50's in south florida dade/broward.

Hi-Res visible loop of front


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??
Quoting zoomiami:


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??


He won't be able to underscore the arctic airmass that will come next week.
Our mild cold front just blew in, eating dinner and all of a sudden the wind starts whipping up against the house. Still pretty gusty.

While back a front like this came in, I was in the car that showed the outside temp, dropped 12 degrees in less than 10 minutes. that cold front literally "blew" in.
Hi Drak - how are you? Are you in North Dade or South Dade?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
9:00 AM FST January 8 2009
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (999 hPa) located at 18.0S 172.0E reported moving southeast at 15 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

Organization in the last 24 hours has not improved remarkedly with deep convection sheared to the east of low level circulation center. TD FOUR lies in a sheared environment with 20-30 knot winds at 250 hPa. An active convergence zone lies to the north of the system with 20 knot winds at the surface. A southeasterly surge remains to the south.

Development remains unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper trough from the west which maintains a sheared environment. TD FOUR is expected to develop into a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
It's good to be back lol
Quoting surfmom:
265aspectre -- thank you for clarifying that the Mayans did NOT have prophesy's of the world ending... and indeed it was the westerners who tagged that fable on to their work!


either way, the point is... ITS NOT GONNA HAPPEN. Nostradamus took the date and assigned it significance, but his words are so vague that any meaning can be applied to it. I'm tired of everyone saying "oh, armageddon's gonna come on 12.12.12, and there's nothing you can do about it." face it, it is purely superstition and belief in it is foolish.
Quoting zoomiami:


Are you trying to spoil what enjoyment we can get out of some cold air??


Look, i'll trade you my cold Michigan air for your cold Florida air, okay???
Quoting hurristat:


Look, i'll trade you my cold Michigan air for your cold Florida air, okay???


Deal -- it was 83 here today. Can't even wear a suit without suffocating
Hi Haha - nice to see you back
Quoting zoomiami:


Deal -- it was 83 here today. Can't even wear a suit without suffocating


sweet you can have my highs of 30

nice new avatar btw
Slummed the weather wire & updated. It's buzzing tonight. Something that played into a recent discussion..
Brownsville, TX~ Making gulf water drinkable too costly for now

Good stuff on the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. I had an ahh ha moment of my own not mentioned in either. It's finally cooled off around the gulf stream to create a gradient to get it going. In 2005 the monitering seemed to show it at it's slowest.. The waters around it were so hot then. Recently it's cooled around the gulf stream with the heat gathering more in Central Atlantic.

Surfmom~ Ponys here were pretty lively in that front too.
Quoting hurristat:


sweet you can have my highs of 30

nice new avatar btw


I hate the cold

It is great here in Port St Lucie FL
Quoting futuremet:


I hate the cold

It is great here in Port St Lucie FL


too late, i already traded with zoo... welcome to real cold, all you floridians!! Mwahahaha!!
Thanks Hurristat - in honor of my new PIA kitty
Quoting hurristat:


too late, i already traded with zoo... welcome to real cold, all you floridians!! Mwahahaha!!


Hopefully arctic air will not penetrate too deep south next week...
Anyone else seeing a Moon Halo tonight?
It's hard not to check out the forecast for that storm early next week. The long term forecast anomilies were like what on earth.. Now the gfs is kicken warm core Greenland style.
Skye- that is very odd... why would the GFS say that?? computers have not taken over the world yet. Instead of the traffic light system taking over the world, it will be that new Japanese computer supermodel (not in the fashion sense)

Anyone else notice a pocket of warmth off the coast of Delaware? It's almost warm enough to sustain a TC!!
Mauritius Meteorological Services

LOW [1004 HPA] NEAR 17.0S 66.0E

Is likely to intensify further

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0300z 08JAN)
=========================================
An area of convection (Remnants of TC Billy/05S/03U) located at 15.1S 66.5E or 725 NM east-northeast of Runion. Recent animated water vapor and infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection flaring on the northeastern periphery of a broad low level circulation center evident in a partial 2126z AMSR-E Pass. The low level circulation center lies north of an upper level ridge axis in an area of moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the low level circulation center is also moving closer to the upper ridge axis, which may provide a reduction in shear values over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. Because the low level circulation center is broad and upper level support is just beginning to improve, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclcone within the next 24 hours is POOR.

---

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Region between 125E-142E
2:15 pm ACST January 8 2009
=============================================

A TROPICAL LOW [1002 hPa] is situated in the southeastern GULF OF CARPENTARIA near Mornington Island. At 11am it was near latitude 17S, longitude 139E, slow moving.

The LOW is expected to remain slow moving over water for the next few days, and may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
Friday: LOW
Saturday: MODERATE
Sunday: HIGH
Cyclone Outlook for Northern Territory (Australia)

This is 97P on the NRL when it gets posted
Quoting Skyepony:
It's hard not to check out the forecast for that storm early next week. The long term forecast anomilies were like what on earth.. Now the gfs is kicken warm core Greenland style.

Wait...that means it could be a hurricane (since it's symmetric warm-core)?
extratropical system with hurricane-force winds
The area of convection (96P) previously located near 16.4S 168.2E, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Comment Removed

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
ZONE PERTURBEE 05-20082009
10:00 AM Reunion January 8 2008
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1004 hPa) located at 13.0S 70.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
=====================
Squally weather exists within 250 NM radius from the center, extending up to 450 NM in the northern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 15.3S 68.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.5S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.7S 65.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 19.7S 65.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)


Additional Information
=======================
Convection has intensified last night, associated with a new low located between the two lows monitored until yesterday (one near 10S and the other near 15S, Remnants of Billy) The system is expected to track southwestward due to the ridge in the southeast, then up to track, 0600z +48HRS, southward as the trough arrives in the southwest. The system is fed by a strong monsoon flow, and a favorable equatorwards outflow is present.

---
corrected the stage of the system
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0830z 08JAN)
==========================================
An area of convection (98S) located at 13.4S 69.2E or 420 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Based on multispectral satellite imagery, this area is a new developing low, seperate from the dissipated remnants of former tropical cyclone Billy which tracked westward and is located near 15.0S 66.0E. This position was moved 180 NM northeast of the previous position. Multispectral satellite imagery and a 0436z AMSU image indicates improved consolidation and convective banding wrapping into the low level circulation center with good inflow over the northeastern quadrant. A 0129z Quikscat image shows a somewhat elongated low level circulation cneter with many 20-25 knot unflagged winds and one 35 knot unflagged wind north of the center, associated with an intense area of deep convection. a 0000z ship report, 95 NM northeast, also indicate 33 knots with surface low pressure of 1004 MB. Upper level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment, although currently limited by moderate to high vertical wind shear with good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures and high ocean heat content. The low level circulation center is expected to track into lower vertical wind shera after 24 hours and should consolidate further

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1003 MB. Based on the improved organization, formative banding and good radial outflow, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
18:00 PM FST January 8 2009
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (998 hPa) located at 20.0S 174.0E reported moving southeast at 15 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral surface observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 31C.

Organization in the last 24 hours has not improved markedly with deep convection sheared to the east of low level circulation center. TD FOUR lies in a sheared environment with 20-30 knot winds at 250 hPa. An active convergence zone lies to the north of the system with 20 knot at the surface. A southeasterly surge remains to the south.

Development remains unfavorable as TD FOUR gets caught up by a fast moving upper trough from the west which will maintain a sheared environment. TD FOUR is expected to develop as a hybrid system.

Global models (US/UK/EC) has picked up the system and moves it fairly rapidly southeast with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
ya me! I am flooding the blog now, haha

Good Morning Hades --mischief so early???
Hades,

Wow! Billy's remnants are still spinning? It looks like it has potental for regeneration...
Hi, you all. Germany is freezing very much:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,599784,00.html
Morning all.

The front came through here around 2:30 a. m. with a short burst of heavy rainfall. Definitely it's cooler this morning; yesterday at this time it was almost 10 degrees warmer. . .
Blizzards in the south of France also.

Starting to warm up a little here though, which is nice.

(I mean, from -7 area to around freezing.)

Still remaining very cold at night, sharp drop each night to silly temperatures.

How does any storm get a warm core, next to Greenland, in January???

Hurricane Tebow is about to come ashore at 8 p.m. in Miami tonight. It is advised the people evacuate Sooners rather than later.
Wow -- Billy is a rather tenacious storm.

Hoping it warms up in Europe - spouse has a business trip planned for February. These temps. and weather will make my Florida man suffer.... hoping it warms by then.

Cot., the only thing this cold weather is good for (IMHO) is snuggling up with the furry four-leggeds.... it's 52 degrees this morning here in SWFL -- I know there are waves to surf w/thanks to the cold front and I could snitch out for a quick hour session before work..... but the cold... -- I feel like the dog... I really want to go out...but as soon as the temp hits my face...I run back in the house.
According to the JTWC, the remains of Billy has dissipated.
skyepony/post 305 - Atlantic Overturning Circulation..... I scrolled back to see if you had a link to this or more of an explanation..didn't find any.......if you catch this...... I am going to assume this is different then upwelling? ...does it cause upwelling? or is just the speed/temp of the Gulf Stream.
The Moon Glow was lovely last night -- let's hope my herd didn't get into too much mischief.

Atmoaggie/Post 279- Question regarding the Japanese Global Resolving Model that figures in/resolves MJO --- will we have that for a reference during this year's Hurricane season?
Well, the tide has vanished and taken' the swell with it. Currently we do have some fun, glassy lines in the waist /stomach high range. Only 2 tides today so we start out low and slowly will fill in all day.Wind will add some texture as the morning closes, so get out there now. Gulf Temp 66 Swell has dropped alot over night. 5-6ft at 8 secs usually equals waist high range. Wind has not totally died either. Should still be some fun waves.


There is no cheese for my whine this morning (brrrrr) -- got to suck it up... have an hour & change to ride a wave -enough talk and tapping of keys JUST GOT TO DO IT! Adios

334. GBlet
SURFER UP! Surfmom. Only waves I can see are the waves of dead prairie grass! Enjoy!
335. GBlet
Oh great! Now I'm gonna get blamed for killin the blog....
Looks like a great nite in Miami for a Gator feast coming Sooner than later......LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like a great nite in Miami for a Gator feast coming Sooner than later......LOL
You bet!
Yup it is not Billy anymore.. this new low formed northeast of the remnants of Billy, which dissipated, is likely to form into a cyclone "Dongo".
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (1500z 08JAN)
=========================================
An area of convection (98S) located at 14.0S 70.2E or 420 NM south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery and a 1226z SSMIS image continues to depict a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center with a defined low level circulation center and multiple bands of deep convection wrapping into the center. Previous ship reports a scatterometer data supporting 25-30 knot system with a surface low pressure of 1002 MB. Upper level analysis indicates a generally favorable environment, although currently hindered by moderate to high vertical wind shear, with good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperature and high ocean heat content. The low level circulation center is expected to track into lower vertical wind shear within 12-24 hours and should also tap into the midlatitude westerly flow to its south, resulting in improved poleward outflow which will allow the system to strengthen to 35 knots.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 MB. Based on the improved organization, tight banding, good radial outflow, and expected track into an improved environment, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20082009
16:00 PM Reunion January 8 2008
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 14.0S 70.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 70.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.0S 69.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.9S 67.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 17.2S 66.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)


Additional Information
=======================
Convection built last night remains active today, fed by a good monsoonal flow and a favorable upper level equatorward outflow. The system is expected to track southwest due to the low level ridge in the southeast, then southward as the trough arrive in the southwest. The system should go on intensifying with the setting up to (24HRS) of a new upper level outflow due to the polar westerly jet.