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Top U.S. weather story of 2009: drought hits a 10-year low

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:05 PM GMT on December 30, 2009

The weather gods were unusually kind to the U.S. in 2009, as the nation had no hurricane landfalls, a relatively quiet tornado season, no billion-dollar floods, and the lowest drought footprint of the decade by year's end. According to insurance giant Munich Re, the four costliest 2009 weather disasters in the U.S., not including droughts, were:

$2.5 billion: February 10 - 13 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$2.0 billion: June 10 - 18 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$1.7 billion: April 9 - 11 Severe weather and tornado outbreak
$1.5 billion: March 25 - 26 Severe weather and tornado outbreak


Figure 1. Lake Whitney, Texas in February 2009 (left) and July 2009 (right), after exceptional drought conditions gripped South Central Texas. Image credit: wunderphotographer Icheney44.

Costliest U.S. weather disaster of 2009: the Texas drought
The costliest U.S. weather disaster in 2009 was the Texas drought. According to preliminary estimates, the agricultural losses from the Texas drought will cost close to $4 billion. The drought actually began in 2007 - 2008, and at the beginning of 2009 (Figure 2), much of Texas was already experiencing "exceptional drought"--the highest level of drought classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor. By summer, much below-average rainfall and scorching triple-digit heat caused the exceptional drought region to expand over a large region of South Central Texas. However, by September, the southern branch of the jet stream became more active, as it typically does during strong El Niño events in the Eastern Pacific, putting southern Texas in the path of a series of drought-busting rain storms that continued into the winter. By December, just a few spots of moderate to severe drought remained in Texas. While the short-term drought is over, longer-term drought remains in Texas. Area lakes have seen only modest rises, and will take months to show significant improvements. Lake Corpus Christi was just 33% of capacity on December 26, and other South Central Texas lakes and reservoirs were between 59% and 100% of capacity. With El Niño conditions expected to continue through winter and spring, there is a good chance that Texas will enter summer 2010 free of both short and long-term drought, though.


Figure 2. What a difference a year makes: Texas began the year with exceptional drought conditions over a small region, which expanded to cover a large portion of the state in the summer. Fall and winter rains broke the drought, and by December only a few small spots of drought remained over Texas. The Southeast U.S. also began the year with widespread drought conditions, which eased by summer. However, drought conditions developed over the Desert Southwest, including most of Arizona. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Top U.S. weather story of 2009: drought at a 10-year low
As of December 2009, the U.S. was free of "exceptional drought" for the first time since June 2008, and had the lowest levels of the two highest drought categories--"extreme" and "exceptional"--since June 2005. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor archive, the 4.24% of the country experiencing severe or higher drought conditions in December 2009 was the lowest U.S. drought footprint of the decade (Figure 3). The previous low was 4.57%, in November 2005. This is very good news, since droughts typically cost the U.S. an average of $6 - $8 billion per year, and are our costliest weather-related disasters, according to FEMA. For comparison, Floods cause an average damage of $2.4 billion per year, and hurricanes, $1 - $5 billion per year.


Figure 3. Areal coverage of drought over the Contiguous U.S. from January 2000 to December 2009. Dark red colors are the highest level of drought, "exceptional"; bright red colors include the the next highest level of drought, "extreme (D3); orange colors include the next highest level of drought, "severe" (D2); light orange colors include next highest level of drought conditions, "moderate" (D1); and yellow colors include the lowest level of drought conditions, "Abnormally Dry" (D0). At the end of 2009, the Contiguous U.S. was experiencing its lowest drought footprint of the decade. Image credit: U.S. Drought Portal, National Integrated Drought Information System.

Drought is not increasing in the U.S.
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increased drought is my number one concern regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world over the next forty years. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in his blog post from January). However, despite significantly warmer temperatures over the U.S. over the past 40 years, drought has not increased, according to the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (blue bars, Figure 4). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S.: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."


Figure 4. The Climate Extremes Index for January through November for drought (the December stats are not yet available, but the Jan - Nov numbers will not be much different). The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Next post
Have a great rest of the decade, everyone, and I'll be back next decade with a new post on the top global weather story of 2009 (yes, I realize that the end of the decade is really on December 31, 2010, but I'll go with the flow on this! I want to thank all of you who helped out the Portlight charity cause this year, everyone who uploaded a wunderphoto, and everyone who participated in the great community we've built here at Wunderground! I look forward to 2010.

Jeff Masters
Lake Travis 2009 Drought
Lake Travis 2009 Drought
Over 30 feet below normal Lake Travis near Spicewood Tx is just a river bed.
Drought
Drought
Most of Texas has been under serious drought conditions for about a year and a half. Much of the state is under Extreme Drought conditions. The agricultural/ranching/rural areas of the county are most affected, as the drought has a direct and significant impact on the livelihood of those making their living in a way dependent on nature. The importance of rain to daily life is reflected in this sign at a church in rural George West, Texas, in Live Oak, County.

Drought Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting jipmg:
http://cbs4.com/weatherbug

its in the 40s in the miami metro area..

*idk why the airport is reporting 52 when an area right next to the air port and closer to the coast is reporting 48*

I am absolutely shocked that the temperature has dropped despite the cloud cover, after hitting 62 today..

I guess its the light drops of rain coming down that evaporate before hitting the ground?


Here's the link to Miami Weatherbug:
Link

The temperatures when there are light winds can vary several degrees, higher near the city/Atlantic Ocean and cooler in rural/country settings. The light rain falling honestly is probably not reaching the ground, but that also can help lower temps.
Quoting mara0921:
I have a question for everyone. Although I definetely missed my calling in not going into meteorology when I went to college, I have always been a big weather nerd/fan. My question is, being a native of miami and live if fort lauderdale almost my whole life, even the remote possibility of even seeing a few flurries down here gets me and everyone so excited. I would hate to see such a damaging freeze as 1989, 1985, 1983 and 1977, and what that would do to the economy and the farmers, at the same time I would just kill to see it happen. Could someone kinda tell me first of all if that is even possible during this extended and historical cold wave, and secondly, how could it ever happen and also what happened/how did it happen, the " great florida snowstorm " of January 1977. I was only 1 yr old when it happened but my parents always talk about it and amazing it was to see it snowing in Hialeah, FL. Thanks and will look for any comments


Quite frankly my friend, at this time the chance for snow/flurries is probably < 5%.

PS, it's NEVER too late, you can go back to school, starting by taking courses on line :)
2003. jipmg
Quoting Bordonaro:


Here's the link to Miami Weatherbug:
Link

The temperatures when there are light winds can vary several degrees, higher near the city/Atlantic Ocean and cooler in rural/country settings. The light rain falling honestly is probably not reaching the ground, but that also can help lower temps.


yea thats what I meant, I dont know how the air port is always higher than the temperatures around it.. even if its right at the beach. I remember last year, we dropped to 38 in the air port, and miami beach had 37, while weather bug around the airport were in the mid 30s..
Quoting jipmg:


yea thats what I meant, I dont know how the air port is always higher than the temperatures around it.. even if its right at the beach. I remember last year, we dropped to 38 in the air port, and miami beach had 37, while weather bug around the airport were in the mid 30s..


The Atlantic Ocean is like a huge, warm blanket, the water temps are in the lower 70's and that heat radiates into the air, even when it's cold..
2005. IKE
Quoting mara0921:
I have a question for everyone. Although I definetely missed my calling in not going into meteorology when I went to college, I have always been a big weather nerd/fan. My question is, being a native of miami and live if fort lauderdale almost my whole life, even the remote possibility of even seeing a few flurries down here gets me and everyone so excited. I would hate to see such a damaging freeze as 1989, 1985, 1983 and 1977, and what that would do to the economy and the farmers, at the same time I would just kill to see it happen. Could someone kinda tell me first of all if that is even possible during this extended and historical cold wave, and secondly, how could it ever happen and also what happened/how did it happen, the " great florida snowstorm " of January 1977. I was only 1 yr old when it happened but my parents always talk about it and amazing it was to see it snowing in Hialeah, FL. Thanks and will look for any comments


I remember that event.

The 18th and 19th of January...up here in the panhandle..at Crestview....

Highs...31(18th)....32(19th)
Lows....22(18th)....10(19th)

Events for both days...snow.

Jet stream dipped way far south and all the way to south Florida and it caused the snow event up here and in south Florida.
2006. jipmg
Quoting Bordonaro:


The Atlantic Ocean is like a huge, warm blanket, the water temps are in the lower 70's and that heat radiates into the air, even when it's cold..


that isn't the point, Miami beach which is right next to the atlantic ocean, and is likely influenced by it much more than metro miami, reported temperatures aroung 37, yet the air port which is miles inland, reported 38. Makes no sense to me.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Btwntx08. Friend, I KNOW how BAD you want to see it snow/or sleet. I hope and pray enough Arctic air reaches Far South TX, and I've probably angered about 500,000 people who don't want it :0). Peace.

so there is a chance for it to happen
2008. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

so there is a chance for it to happen


Accuweather was saying last night there's a chance for sleet in Brownsville. Not in the forecast but cold air is...


Friday and Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Colder. Highs in the upper 30s. Lows in the lower 30s.
Quoting IKE:


Accuweather was saying last night there's a chance for sleet in Brownsville. Not in the forecast but cold air is...


Friday and Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. Colder. Highs in the upper 30s. Lows in the lower 30s.

thanks ike something to look forward too!!
2010. Patrap
Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 10 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

39.6 °F

Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 40 °F
Humidity: 54%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Quoting btwntx08:

so there is a chance for it to happen


You have about a 30 to 40% chance of seeing sleet and/or snow :0).

The 850MB temps will be below freezing about 150 miles into NW Mexico, including Brownsville, TX. A 1037MB High will settle over North Texas and ridge out to a 1035MB High over Brownsville, TX.

18Z GFS 138hrs out, SAT 1-9-10

i see some rain over florida right now if that sticks around overnight is it possible for some inland areas to receive some snow
evening y'all
2014. jipmg
Quoting Twinkster:
i see some rain over florida right now if that sticks around overnight is it possible for some inland areas to receive some snow


no because none of that rain is touching the ground.
Quoting tornadodude:
evening y'all


Good evening, and welcome :0).
Evening!
2017. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:

thanks ike something to look forward too!!


Hope you see some.

I'm down to 34.2 already. Ten hours till sunup. If it falls a degree an hour that's 24 for a low. I bet it's close to that.
how ya guys doing tonight? staying warm?
The snow has really been coming down today, and the forecasts were predicting around 10 cm, but this afternoon there was 20 cm on the ground and it's snowing again. We shovelled the snow this afternoon, and now there's another 3 cm. So if this pattern continues, the snowfall here is going to wreak havoc, because we're in a snowsquall zone and this has been our first major snowfall of the winter. Currently -12.6C. I'm in S. Ontario, north of KOG.

OK, so I see that people appear to be arguing about global warming again (it wasn't me this time!), and some people think that the cold weather disproves global warming. It doesn't, and to think it does completely misses the bigger picture. The Humboldt Current is about to get cut off, not from the north at the Equator, but from the south, in the opposite direction of the South Equatorial Current. At the current rate, the 20C-line is about to cut off the current completely in about a week. Really reminds me of the "Day After Tomorrow", but in reverse. El Nino has been really erratic this winter, and I think I know why.

If anybody wants to read a far more detailed analysis of what's going on, take a look at this discussion I posted on Wikipedia: Link I would like some more insight into the current phase of El Nino, and if you have any answers please post them here.

However, keep in mind not to comment on the discussion directly, because:

1. You probably are not a member of the Meteorology Wikiproject, and
2. You are probably not familiar with Wikipedia's community and rules, and
3. Wikipedia does not encourage debates.

Also, remember:

1. Stay calm.
2. It's a long post, so if you don't have time today, read it tomorrow.
3. Please do post more about the different oscillations, including links I could look at.
4. What we really need are reliable sources, but there is not likely to be any published, peer-reviewed scientific journals about the current situation, so if you find the next best thing, either link it here or send me a message.
5. The sky is not falling, so remember again to stay calm.
6. Do not make any assumptions.
7. This post may offer somewhat of an explanation into the current Arctic air situation, but even it does not offer the full "bigger picture".
8. However, if you do not wish to have an overload of information from the big picture, don't read this immediately.
9. There are many links to other articles in the discussion, but do not click on all of them that do not seem relavent.
10. If you are worried about headaches or insomnia, read it during the day.
11. If this post convinces you to go from a skeptic to a non-skeptic of AGW, remember to stay resillient, not morbid nor obese nor depressed nor violent nor frightened, and if that is not possible then do not read it.
12. This is not intended to be alarmist, and take any predictions with a grain of salt.
13. You do not need to evacuate.
14. Do not flood me with an overload of questions, as I probably will not be checking WU until at least tomorrow.
15. Remember, stay resillient.
16. Don't forget about providing me with links and further information, if possible.
17. Stay happy and friendly and Portlight.
18. Stay calm.
19. This is not a specific forecast.
20. We are not headed for another ice age.
21. Wikipedia is not a crank. Please do not turn it into one.
Quoting Floridano:


Aussie, what's the peak month of your cane season down there? :)

our season is December to March
2021. jipmg
there are some scattered light showers south of the west/central gulf coast =O
2022. IKE
PWS 6 miles SSE of me....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
31.5 °F
Clear
Windchill: 32 °F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 18 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 30.16 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft


Crestview,FL...30 miles to my west...

Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 47 min 37 sec ago
Clear
31 °F
Clear
Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the North
Pressure: 30.25 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
Quoting AussieStorm:

our season is December to March



Just four months?
48.6 now here in Lake Worth. Not too fast a drop.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 3, 8:54 pm EST

Overcast

12 °F
(-11 °C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: W 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.35" (1028.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 6 °F (-14 °C)
Wind Chill: 0 °F (-18 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
astro...lovin' #17...
Quoting Bordonaro:


Btwntx08. Friend, I KNOW how BAD you want to see it snow/or sleet. I hope and pray enough Arctic air reaches Far South TX, and I've probably angered about 500,000 people who don't want it :0). Peace.
That's why they moved down there, to get away from the COLD!!!!!
the lake effect snow is pretty far south

2029. Patrap
Just for the hell of it...I turned on the heat...breaker switch turned off...do I call the A.C. company or an electrician?
2031. Patrap
Call the service company that installed it if theres a number.

Thats what Id do.

Maybe reset the breaker..with the Thermostat down to 50.

Then if it holds..raise it slowly to 65 and see what happens.

I assume the unit is electric and not gas though.

A very cold northwest flow will remain across our region as an Arctic high pressure system builds east into the central and upper Mississippi valley. Wind chills will be as low as -10 to 0 overnight. A few flurries or snow showers will be possible tonight and Monday over the northeastern half of the area.
Thanks Pat...had the new unit installed after Wilma and have never turned on the heat until tonight.
well...first...reset the breaker and see if it happens again...
Did reset a few times....Trying Pat's advice.
Quoting mossyhead:
That's why they moved down there, to get away from the COLD!!!!!
I thought you were talking about south Florida. LOL.
OK den....Pat's smarter than me...but I think we can all agree I'm better lookin'
2038. Patrap
Yeah,but you aint seen me in Drag yet,,,,,,,,,,,,Hizzz,cackle..GAWK!!
Quoting IKE:


Hope you see some.

I'm down to 34.2 already. Ten hours till sunup. If it falls a degree an hour that's 24 for a low. I bet it's close to that.

yep u will get near 24 tonight and thanks and i get some sleet or snow i take pics thats for sure :)
2040. P451
5-Day GFS Total Snowfall Accumulation




You can trace that darker purple line right to the Atlantic Coast along that trajectory..and then all the way up the eastern seaboard.

Could prove very interesting here. A widespread deep south 1-3 inch event.
2041. Patrap
One can disable the Panel Main and tighten the breaker Wires too.

But I recommend a electrician or AC repair Guy before doing that if your NOT experienced.

Subject: Another (and rare) cause for circuit breaker tripping.

"My electric dryer kept tripping the ganged 30 ampere breakers, yet the dryer was working correctly. There was no evidence of a defective induction motor nor shorted heating elements.

The problem was the connections from the #10 wires to the breakers -- the screws were tightened too loosely, and the heat generated by this high resistance connection found its way into the breaker's overload mechanism. Tightening the screws solved the problem.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Just for the hell of it...I turned on the heat...breaker switch turned off...do I call the A.C. company or an electrician?


Friend, if you reset the breaker and turned the thermostat down like Patrap suggested, and the same thing happens again, please call for service.
Quoting P451:
5-Day GFS Total Snowfall Accumulation




You can trace that darker purple line right to the Atlantic Coast along that trajectory..and then all the way up the eastern seaboard.

Could prove very interesting here. A widespread deep south 1-3 inch event.


do you have a map like that that includes Indiana? thanks!
So far..so good Pat. Not tripping. See how it goes. I just turned it on to see what would happen. First time with the new unit.
Quoting P451:
GFS 5-Day Snow Overlay Maps (Per Radar Station)



thanks! shows me with 5 inches
Very important: Do NOT...under ANY circumstances...take ANY electrical advice from me...
2048. P451
GFS 5-Day Accumulated Snowfall FORECAST

Quoting presslord:
Very important: Do NOT...under ANY circumstances...take ANY electrical advice from me...


Or fashion :)
2050. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So far..so good Pat. Not tripping. See how it goes. I just turned it on to see what would happen. First time with the new unit.


Good deal.

Some smells may occur from Lint on the elements since its a new start..but that should clear after a few minutes.But observe the unit till your confident its working properly.

And make sure your smoke alarms are working too.

Good luck
The temperature at my house reached freezing at 9 p.m. and is now 31.1 Not bad for an island off the GA coast! We should have a 13 hour freeze.
Quoting tornadodude:
the lake effect snow is pretty far south



A couple years ago, a lake effect snowband from Lake Michigan reached all the way down to northern Alabama, giving accumulations up to 3" on the hills in the Huntsville AL forecast area.
you sure know how to hurt a girl...
2054. Patrap
Dropping faster here as the clouds go scattered and clearing increases.

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 12 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
37.8 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: 38 °F
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.24 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 9500 ft
Scattered Clouds 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft



P451 where did you get that map in comment 2040? I'd like to see that for the northeast FL/ southeast GA/ South Carolina area :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The temperature at my house reached freezing at 9 p.m. and is now 31.1 Not bad for an island off the GA coast! We should have a 13 hour freeze.


Seems silly me talking about my heat when so many of you are way colder than myself. I guess it's all relative.
Cold weather preparation

When the weather gets cold, elders especially may develop a reduction in their body temperature more easily as a result of decreased ability in temperature control and decrease in subcutaneous fat. Excessive drop in body temperature can lead to hypothermia. Elders with chronic illnesses, such as chronic respiratory diseases or asthma, are also vulnerable to disease deterioration in cold weather.



Put on adequate clothing. Wear several layers of not too tight or too bulky clothing. Always wear a hat and gloves, since ears and fingertips as well as noses are extremely susceptible to frost nip and frost bite.
Consume hot and easily digestible food and beverages with higher calories, like hot milk, soup, noodles and rice. Remember, alcohol actually accelerates the loss of body heat because it dilates blood vessels, so avoid alcoholic beverages.
Keep the home environment warm but well ventilated. Do not overload electricity supply.
Remain indoors or in places with sunlight. Continue with usual daily activities, but do more exercise to generate heat, improve blood circulation, and maintain flexibility of joints.
Exercise care and concern for the elderly. If you happen to know of a single elder living alone or with chronic illnesses, give him/her a call or pay a visit.
Stay off the ice. Determining the strength of ice is extremely difficult. Ice must be at least six inches thick to maintain the weight of a person and it takes weeks of freezing to get to that thickness.


What is hypothermia?

Hypothermia is defined as a fall in the core body temperature to below 35 degrees C (95 degrees F). Factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, use of hypnotics and alcohol predispose to the development of hypothermia. Anyone suspected to be suffering from hypothermia should be taken to see the doctor or taken to the hospital right away.

Mild - (body temp 90-95 degrees) The victim will have cold skin, especially of the hands and feet, pallor, excessive shivering, unsteady gait, difficulty in speaking or slurred speech and confusion. Some elders may not have the shivering response.
Moderate - (85-90 degrees) As the body temperature drops, victims become stuporous. Moderate hypothermia is characterized by loss of shivering, muscle rigidity, slowing down of heart beat, loss of voluntary movement and gradual loss of consciousness.
Severe - (less than 78 degrees) Victims become unresponsive with irregular heart beat, fall in blood pressure, total loss of consciousness and cardiac arrest.
Who is most susceptible?

Very old - May be unaware of their limitations. Due to limited mobility may be forced to spend increased amount of time exposed to the cold weather due to slow ambulation.
Very young - Thermoregulatory system is still immature. Babies rely on adults for warmth.
Infirmed - Due to illness or injury can't remove themselves from the cold source.

Indoors

Stay indoors and dress warmly.
Conserve fuel.
Lower the thermostat to 65 degrees during the day and 55 degrees at night. Close off unused rooms.
If the pipes freeze, remove any insulation or layers of newspapers and wrap pipes in rags.
Completely open all faucets and pour hot water over the pipes, starting where they were most exposed to the cold (or where the cold was most likely to penetrate).
Listen to the radio or television to get the latest information.
Residents need to be extra careful when using supplemental heating units. Make sure that all-combustible materials such as drapes or chairs are at least three feet away from any heating unit. Avoid using flammable liquids to start fireplaces and do not leave a fireplace unattended. Most importantly, check your smoke detector to make sure it is working properly

Outdoors

Dress warmly.
Wear loose-fitting, layered, lightweight clothing. Layers can be removed to prevent perspiration and chill. Outer garments should be tightly woven and water repellent. Mittens are warmer than gloves, due to the fact that fingers generate warmth when they touch each other.
Keep dry.
Change wet clothing frequently to prevent a loss of body heat. Wet clothing loses all of its insulating value and transmits heat rapidly

Well its 31 degrees here in Gainesville Fl. Any chance of snow or sleet later on this week?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Gainesville&state=FL&site=JAX&textField1=29.6742& textField2=-82.3363
2059. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
P451 where did you get that map in comment 2040? I'd like to see that for the northeast FL/ southeast GA/ South Carolina area :)



Here SSIGG,click your radar here for a Map




2060. P451
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
P451 where did you get that map in comment 2040? I'd like to see that for the northeast FL/ southeast GA/ South Carolina area :)


Here's the links.

GFS 120HR Snowfall Forecast

NAM 84HR Snowfall Forecast

Earl's Models Page
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
P451 where did you get that map in comment 2040? I'd like to see that for the northeast FL/ southeast GA/ South Carolina area :)


Here you go - for the Charleston WFO

Link
chuck...I'm not gonna be awake long enough to watch you...How 'bout a forecast preview?
Thanks y'all! The snow is just to my north (sniff) Oh well. Last night the GFS was indicating snow for us in the 300-336 hour period, several inches in fact. I wonder if that forecast is holding....
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
04-JAN-2010 02:08:12 -8.94 157.60 5.2 43.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS
04-JAN-2010 01:47:20 -9.01 157.83 5.3 30.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
03-JAN-2010 22:36:30 -8.91 157.31 7.2 30.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS
03-JAN-2010 21:48:06 -8.81 157.21 6.5 10.0 SOLOMON ISLANDS
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks y'all! The snow is just to my north (sniff) Oh well. Last night the GFS was indicating snow for us in the 300-336 hour period, several inches in fact. I wonder if that forecast is holding....


I'm so sorry...I can feel your disappointment all the way to Mobile..I probably won't get any either this week..
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks y'all! The snow is just to my north (sniff) Oh well. Last night the GFS was indicating snow for us in the 300-336 hour period, several inches in fact. I wonder if that forecast is holding....


How would you trust a 300-336 hurricane forecast? Treat it the same way.
Quoting tornadodude:

Hey, you forgot the penguins!

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks y'all! The snow is just to my north (sniff) Oh well. Last night the GFS was indicating snow for us in the 300-336 hour period, several inches in fact. I wonder if that forecast is holding....


If you don't get snow with-in 10 days then you will not see any this winter. A warmer stormier pattern will develope in 10 to 14 days.
Well I don't trust a 300 hour forecast, but I can be intrigued by it! :)
From #2067 :0)! Tornado dude, here's the penguins:

I wonder what the model forecasts were a week before we had this, at my old house, Christmas Eve morning, 1989:

from the nws in brownsville
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR TUESDAY AS A 1040 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES COLD AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEXAS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ALLOWS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY.

THURSDAY AFTER SUNRISE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON.

THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MODEL
AND VERY GOOD MODEL TO MODEL AGREEMENT FOLLOWING THE COLD DOME OF
AIR ORIENTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A
50-50 BLEND BETWEEN THE 12Z RAW ECMWF AND GFS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. AS THE EVENT APPROACHES THE NAM MAY PROVIDE GOOD SKILL
WITH THE SHARP ARCTIC AIR BOUNDARY. FRIDAY DURING THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLD...CLOUDY AND WINDY PROVIDING UNCOMFORTABLE
WIND CHILL VALUES. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL NOT REACH 40F.
FOR NOW...LOWERED
THE BLENDED TEMPERATURES BY 4 TO 5F FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS WITH VERY LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND AROUND 20F
FOR SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY. THE FRIDAY 12Z ECMWF HAS LOWER DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES THAN THE FRIDAY 12Z GFS...ESPECIALLY UPSTREAM
OF TEXAS FROM WHERE THE COLD AIR IS COMING FROM. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY
MORNING AREA WIDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD
ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL. NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ALL 12
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
OCEAN ONLY BRUSHING THE COASTAL AREAS.

c'mon u know better than that haha we'll see
That's the street in front of my old house, snowcovered. Note my footprints ;)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That's the street in front of my old house, snowcovered. Note my footprints ;)


Very small footprints :)
Ha Ha I was 20, and I wore size 9 1/2 shoes ;) kicker for GA Tech too :)
Quoting presslord:
chuck...I'm not gonna be awake long enough to watch you...How 'bout a forecast preview?


Evening Press. Yea, we're not going on until 11:30 because of the earlier football games. 40's for highs and 20's for lows - maybe some wintry precip Thursday into Friday from that shortwave rounding the base of the trough. Some overunning sleet/freezing rain is possible ahead of it, I'm afraid the boundary layer will be a bit too warm for snow, but on the back side of the system we could see some snow if there's enough moisture left and the "new" arctic front gets here quick enough. Any way you slice it, unfortunately next weekend will be just as cold as this past weekend.
I am going to be very very disappointed if it does not snow in Florida :(
2081. Patrap
NWS New Orleans


Tonight through Wednesday morning...some of the coldest mornings of the
season are in store(although it looks like these could easily be
surpassed by the airmass late this week). High pressure will
dominate through the first half of the week but will be reinforced
over the next 36 hours. The airmass associated with this surface high will
be quite cold. In fact temperatures got to freezing(even upper 20s) across
half of the County Warning Area last night with some cirrus over the area. Well
drier air has moved into the region and with mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies expected...temperatures should drop off nicely tonight with
locations along the southshore expected to drop below freezing. With
that a freeze warning has been issued for the New Orleans metropolitan. One
other problem area could be Jackson County MS. Lows could fall into
the middle 20s thanks to cold air drainage so we are issuing a hard
freeze warning for just that one County but it would not be shocking
to see a few locations along and northeast of a line from Gulfport
to McComb get just below 26 degrees. By late Monday our next airmass
will start to move in and with the nice snow pack across the Central
Plains and Upper/Middle MS valley it should not moderate much. It
should be noted that this airmass has been associated with temperatures
falling into the middle -30s across portions of Minnesota...so it is a pretty
cold one. H925 temperatures should drop to around -6c over the County Warning Area by 12z
Tuesday and this should allow lows to fall into at least the lower to
middle 20s across the northern half of the County Warning Area. We could even flirt with
upper teens but this would be more likely Wednesday morning as the surface
high sits directly over the region. Since temperatures could easily be
below 26 degrees for more than a few hours Tuesday morning we will issue a
hard freeze watch for areas along and north of the I -10/12
corridor.
Wednesday morning looks to be even a few degrees colder but the
one fly in the ointment I see is ll temperatures just above the surface will
actually be warming overnight Tuesday and this could hinder rad cooling
that said isolated locations in southern/coastal MS could see temperatures drop
into the middle teens. One more thing to mention this airmass coming
down for Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be anywhere from 2.5 to 4 Standard
deviations below normal so this also leads ME into thinking we could
touch teens in a few locations those mornings




maybe a chance for some snow in the panhandle of FL.. ;)
78 here today. Gorgeous day in San Diego. now if we could just stop the ground from rumbling in Baja, things would be perfect.

Evening kids...
Quoting melwerle:
78 here today. Gorgeous day in San Diego. now if we could just stop the ground from rumbling in Baja, things would be perfect.

Evening kids...


Sure, just enjoy your beautiful weather. How bad was today's quake?
I actually like the cold melwerle :) we look forward to the cold in summer!
The new 00Z GFS is running now, up to Day 4 @ 78 HRS, link below:

Link
Why does it seem we are putting all our eggs in the GFS basket? What do the other models say?
It wasn't bad - i thought my washer was off kilter and then I realized the washer wasn't ON. Only a few seconds. I know it sounds a bit wierd but unless it lasts longer than normal, it doesn't register. The houses are built not great here so if a truck goes down the street, you go "what was that" or the neighbor may have his surround sound on too loud and you think it's a tremor. So...it wasn't bad enough to make anyone dive under a table. It was a 4.0 about 45 miles away from us. But really - you get kind of used to movements in the house - from the street, from the air (we had something last week that I RAN from and it was a sonic boom from military planes).
Quoting Bordonaro:
The new 00Z GFS is running now, up to Day 4 @ 78 HRS, link below:

Link

maybe the panhandle may c sum flurries or 2 ;)
hey all

thanks for the penguins Bob!

nice toasty 10 degrees here :P

NAM Model
GeoffWPB, the ECMWF models availiable for public use goes out 10 days and is not as detailed. The NAM is a 84hr/short term model. GFS is a NOAA product, easy to access and easy to read.
Quoting tornadodude:

Nice.. what day is that Tornadodude? the 7th?
hmmm
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

Nice.. what day is that Tornadodude? the 7th?


yes, it is the 7th
I am freaked out... I'm in Indiana, from FL and I'm terrified to drive in snow, when should I leave to go back home.... I have all week, Im thinking Friday...
here is my NWS forecast:

Overnight: A chance of flurries. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 9. Wind chill values as low as -7. West northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -7. West northwest wind between 9 and 14 mph.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -1. West northwest wind between 9 and 14 mph.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -2. West northwest wind between 9 and 13 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 15.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Saturday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 14.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
I am freaked out... I'm in Indiana, from FL and I'm terrified to drive in snow, when should I leave to go back home.... I have all week, Im thinking Friday...


where are you in Indiana?
Quoting tornadodude:


where are you in Indiana?

Indianpolis, and Im terrified to careen down a hill..... again understand Im a Floridian...lol
Quoting tornadodude:


yes, it is the 7th

okay thanks mane
Hmmm btwntx08. That map of yours makes me think teens for me Sunday morning!

30.7 here now. Time for bed!
2105. jipmg
49 in miami, and cloud cover is beginning to move out of the state, forecast is 41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
939 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2010

.UPDATE...
THE ARCTIC FRONT /THE FIRST OF THE WEEK/ HAS PUSHED THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND IT. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20 NEAR THE RED RIVER...DESPITE
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...MAINLY TO LOWER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH RESULTING IN WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

ONE LAST THING TO MENTION IS WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TALKING ABOUT
THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO AGREE THAT A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INVADE NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW.

82/JLD
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Indianpolis, and Im terrified to careen down a hill..... again understand Im a Floridian...lol


haha alright, well I am not too far from Indy, but there are a lot of hilly roads in southern Indiana, if you want to leave before the snow gets here, I'd leave wednesday. It is supposed to snow wednesday night into friday. and it is not getting above freezing anytime soon :P
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

okay thanks mane


no problem
Quoting tornadodude:


haha alright, well I am not too far from Indy, but there are a lot of hilly roads in southern Indiana, if you want to leave before the snow gets here, I'd leave wednesday. It is supposed to snow wednesday night into friday. and it is not getting above freezing anytime soon :P

How does saturday look?, omg I dont think I can last until Saturday at the in-laws though... I might be on the national news if I have to stay there that long
Quoting 954FtLCane:

How does saturday look?, omg I dont think I can last until Saturday at the in-laws though... I might be on the national news if I have to stay there that long


Here is wednesday through sunday for Indy:

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 16.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 15.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.
Quoting tornadodude:


Here is wednesday through sunday for Indy:

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.

Thursday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 12. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 16.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 15.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

thanks that doesn't sound too bad.... is 60% snow like 60% rain in Fla though?
That is an interesting graphic in comment 2104. However, Orlando has never had an observation of freezing rain I seriously doubt they will get freezing rain this time--I wonder what they are basing that graphic on :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That is an interesting graphic in comment 2104. However, Orlando has never had an observation of freezing rain I seriously doubt they will get freezing rain this time--I wonder what they are basing that graphic on :)

I was wondering the samething though.. but hey you never know ;)
Wow, The New England Snowstorm dropped over 32" of snow in parts of VT, link below

Link
Quoting 954FtLCane:

thanks that doesn't sound too bad.... is 60% snow like 60% rain in Fla though?


well, it is 60% chance, and today is Sunday, so a high chance like that this far out is a pretty safe bet that it will snow
2118. unf97
Good evening!

Currently 29.6 degrees at my North Jax location. Reached the freeze mark around 9:30 p.m. this evening.

Looks on track to be in the low 20s by dawn.

The max today was 42 degrees.

Awaiting the next model runs on the potential snow event across the Deep South. The next potent shortwave diving down out of Canada that will spawn a GOM Low later this week. I am still anticipating more changes as the event approaches.
Quoting tornadodude:


well, it is 60% chance, and today is Sunday, so a high chance like that this far out is a pretty safe bet that it will snow

ty Ima snow novice give me all the ,trop storms and hurries but cold and snow and ice freak me out
Quoting 954FtLCane:

ty Ima snow novice give me all the ,trop storms and hurries but cold and snow and ice freak me out


yeah ha definitely get used to it in Indiana
This dam Snow is knocking on Tampa's door step.....HOLY COW!

Quoting Bordonaro:
Wow, The New England Snowstorm dropped over 32" of snow in parts of VT, link below

Link

someone told me earlier that wasnt a blizzard lol.. while i was posting maps and stuff about the northeast.. and they said it was weak sauce.. I was like right..
Quoting TampaSpin:
This dam Snow is knocking on Tampa's door step.....HOLY COW!


I hope we get sum in the Fl panhandle tampa.. btw whats ur name.. Tim?
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

I hope we get sum in the Fl panhandle tampa.. btw whats ur name.. Tim?


Yes Tim it is.....and i don't think you have anything to worry about...YOur snow is coming Probably Thursday nite or Friday.....LOL..get your snowman making crew together...LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes Tim it is.....and i don't think you have anything to worry about...YOur snow is coming Probably Thursday nite or Friday.....LOL..get your snowman making crew together...LOL

wait now Im scared, I just saw 30's almost down to Lauderdale for 4 days and into next weekend..... what is going on.....? I will not careen down that hill before Chattanooga.... I just wont... Im calling in sick...
I hope you're right about the panhandle Tampa/Tim!
Quoting 954FtLCane:

wait now Im scared, I just saw 30's almost down to Lauderdale for 4 days and into next weekend..... what is going on.....? I will not careen down that hill before Chattanooga.... I just wont... Im calling in sick...


Dang when i moved to Florida from Indiana nearly 27yrs ago i left my Snow skis sitting in a corner in my Mom and Dads house...i believe they are still there......i would rather put them on than to drive my car with these crazies down here trying to drive on Snow .....won't that be something....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes Tim it is.....and i don't think you have anything to worry about...YOur snow is coming Probably Thursday nite or Friday.....LOL..get your snowman making crew together...LOL

Nice to meet u Tim..Im JG.. I sure hope it does and dont worry i will b ready for sure.. :)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Dang when i moved to Florida from Indiana nearly 27yrs ago i left my Snow skis sitting in a corner in my Mom and Dads house...i believe they are still there......i would rather put them on than to drive my car with these crazies down here trying to drive on Snow .....won't that be something....LOL

you just put the biggest smile on my face.... the biggest " we're not going to the playoffs" Dolphins smile I've had all year.... Thanks!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I hope you're right about the panhandle Tampa/Tim!


Hey Doug...i don't think there is much doubt coming for you with the snow.....the models have been very consistent on a snow coming for you for days now....how much further south of that would be a question....but from Tallahassee north has a very good chance of snow in my opinion with the greater chance north of Tally
I have been posting on my website early last week of the possiblity of snow in northern Florida for Thursday ...wow ..looks like i was pretty darn close to the exact timing also....
Quoting 954FtLCane:

you just put the biggest smile on my face.... the biggest " we're not going to the playoffs" Dolphins smile I've had all year.... Thanks!!


At least you had a fair chance this year with the Dolphins....my BUCS was stuck in the Snow in September........LOL
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

Nice to meet u Tim..Im JG.. I sure hope it does and dont worry i will b ready for sure.. :)


JG where in the Panhandle are you located?
Here is the link to my Winter Weather Update
This is totally brutal.....geeesh

Tim.. I live in Niceville FL that is 60 miles east of Pensacola.. or west of Tallahassee.. north of Destin lol
Quoting TampaSpin:
This is totally brutal.....geeesh



Tampa, as bitterly cold as those temps are -30F in the MN Arrowhead Region and widespread -10F or lower readings, I remember the temps in that region during the brutal winters in the late 70's, as a teenager were in the -40 to -60 range in MN, WI, ND and as low as -10 in Cinninnati, OH.

Everyone have a great night, be back later today :0)
new 00z gens model run continues to show sleet for me and some snow in the central gulf coast anyways i'm out good night :0
Solomon Islands Hit by 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake, Local Tsunami

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Solomon Islands archipelago in the Pacific was hit by a 7.2-magnitude earthquake today causing a local tsunami, disaster agencies said. Several houses collapsed and some people were injured as they ran away from the shore in panic, Agence France-Presse reported.

The quake hit at 9:36 a.m. local time about 105 kilometers (65 miles) south-southeast of Gizo, at a depth of 30.5 kilometers, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said sea level measurements taken off Honiara indicated a tsunami of 6 centimeters (0.2 feet) was generated. There was no region-wide threat, it said.

“The earthquake caused a small wave,” AFP cited Julian Makaa of the country’s National Disaster Management Office as saying. Some homes collapsed on the island of Rendova, near Gizo, he said.

The Solomon Islands archipelago, about 2,500 kilometers east of Australia, lies in the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and experiences frequent seismic tremors. About 50 people were killed and more than 5,000 left homeless there after an 8.1- magnitude earthquake triggered a tsunami in April 2007.

Today’s 7.2-magnitude quake was the strongest of several temblors to hit off Gizo. A 6.5-magnitude earthquake struck at 8:48 a.m. local time, according to the USGS, followed by quakes of 5.3, 5.2 and 5.7. Gizo is the second-largest town in the Solomon Islands with a population of about 6,000 people, according to AFP.

The tsunami warning center said that “small, non- destructive sea level changes” could last for several hours in other coastal areas.

There was no tsunami threat to the Australian coastline, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its Web site.



Earthquake

wow.. thats crazy..
2143. Nimitz
Near downtown Jacksonville on the Southside, 33.1 degrees at 0430 this morning. And it goes without saying, that being outside today is truly gonna suck...since I'll be at Mayport Naval Station where I work, it'll feel twice as cold.
We are warming up. :) Current Conditions


Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 3:54 AM CST on January 04, 2010
12 °F
Overcast
Windchill: -3 °F
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 6 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.35 in (Falling)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 1900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 02U
8:00 PM ACST January 4 2009
======================================

At 6:30 pm CST [5:00 pm WST], Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 13.8S 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low was estimated to be 50 kms north northwest of Port Keats and 225 kms northeast of Wyndham and moving south southwest at 4 knots.

The Tropical Low is located off the coast and may develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE on Tuesday morning in the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf if it moves further offshore.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Daly River Mouth during Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN, which may cause significant stream rises and flooding of low lying areas, is expected in the east Kimberley region and the western Top End, extending into the northern Victoria River District later on Tuesday.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 03U
6:00 AM UTC January 4 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low 03U (1002 hPa) located at 10.7S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

NO FURTHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER PERTH, REFER TO RSMC REUNION (Mauritius Meteorological Services) FOR FURTHER ADVISORIES IF SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS
AXIO20 FIMP 040630
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS
1. A SATELLITE: METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER: GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME: 04.01.10 @ 0600Z
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER: 05
1. B CYCLONE NAME: TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2. B LATITUDE: 10.3S
3. B LONGITUDE: 89.5E
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE: GOOD
5. B T.NUMBER / C.I NUMBER: 1.5 / 2.0+ / W 0.5 / 24 HRS
6. B MOVEMENT: SLOW WEST
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: NIL
T.O.O : 04/0630 UTC=
END=

---
03U being monitored by Mauritius the number will be 08R when advisories begin from Reunion.
2148. IKE
Defuniak Springs,FL. forecast...

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%


Tallahassee,FL....LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS WHETHER WE WILL GET ANY NON
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT GULF LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A LOW DEVELOPING AND THEN
MOVING EWD ALONG OR NEAR THE GULF COAST IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI TIME FRAME. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS TAKES THE LOW ON
A MORE SWD TRACK...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO MUCH COLDER TEMPS...EVEN
DURING DAYTIME...AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW. THE EURO IS
SLOWER TO BRING THE LOW EWD AND TRACKS IT A BIT CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT IT IS STILL WEAK AND S OF THE AREA. BOTH MODELS SHOW
THAT SO MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE READY TO SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THAT WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO CONTINUE FORECASTING
SOME NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION. BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD
OFF THU MORNING UNTIL AFTER TEMPS HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO GET
RAIN...SO HAVE REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX FOR THU MORNING. HOWEVER...
BEGINNING THU EARLY EVENING...WE SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES. WE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF CHANGE
OVER TO FLURRIES BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS THU NIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
PORTION OF OUR FL ZONES. NOW THAT THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG IN
FL...BE ASSURED THAT WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW AT
THIS TIME. IF FUTURE TRACKS OF THE GULF LOW GAIN LATITUDE...THE S
WORD MAY BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ALTOGETHER. THE VARIOUS MOS
AND RAW MODEL TEMPS ARE ALL EXTREMELY COLD IN THE LONG TERM WITH THU
AFTERNOON BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION IN FL. WE BLENDED IN THE EURO
SOLUTION AND STILL NUDGED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THERE FOR
THU NIGHT. EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE WE COULD FIND INDICATES AN
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES...WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. HARD FREEZES ARE FORECAST FOR FRI...SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY VERY GRADUALLY MODIFYING. BY MON...WE MAY FINALLY
SEE WIDESPREAD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S.

2149. IKE
28.8 my low so far. Not as cold as I thought it would get. Winds stayed up some. Clouds moving in from the NW...about 100 miles WNW of me, diving ESE.
We get up too early Ike.
2152. aquak9
g'morning wu-bloggers.

Not as cold as I thought it would get.

Same here Ike, we only got down to 29.5º. Might there be the tiniest bit of hope for the next week?
25.5 amd still got a little more to go I think.
From Birmingham NWS. The "Sham Wow" Forcast!

DISCUSSION...

BACK WHEN I MOVED TO ALABAMA IN JANUARY OF 1990...I FREQUENTLY
HEARD PEOPLE REFER TO HOW COLD IT GOT AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME A
MONTH EARLIER. AND THE WAY IT WAS DESCRIBED TO ME WAS THAT IT
WASN`T AN ALL-OF-A-SUDDEN ARCTIC BLAST THAT CAME IN. IT WAS MORE
LIKE A GRADUAL CHILL DOWN...A FEW DEGREES A DAY...BEFORE YOU KNEW
IT IT WAS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THAT`S A LOT LIKE HOW
THINGS HAVE BEEN HERE LATELY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ARE INDEED COLD...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL BE GETTING EVEN COLDER.

THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON THE RADAR SCOPE TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS
GREENVILLE MS AND MEMPHIS. THAT SNOW APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. MODELS DO DRY UP THE PRECIP AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HERE IN ALABAMA. I TOYED
WITH THE IDEA OF ADDING SOME FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...BUT DECIDED AGAINST
IT BASED ON THE DRYNESS OF THE SURFACE AIR MASS.

COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...AND MORE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. HARD FREEZE SHOULD EASILY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING...AND AS SOON AS CURRENT HARD FREEZE
WARNING EXPIRES WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TONIGHT
TO A WARNING. BUT AS THE SHAM-WOW GUY WOULD SAY..."BUT WAIT
THERE`S MORE."

AS IF DEALING WITH THE COLD WASN`T BAD ENOUGH WE STILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIP ON THURSDAY...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. BUT THE
04/0000Z MODEL RUNS PAINT A LESS CERTAIN FORECAST THAN APPARENTLY
THE PREVIOUS RUNS DID. I DID CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS I DO THINK THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELIHOOD OF MOST SPOTS GETTING AT LEAST 0.01 OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. BUT THEN AGAIN... I DON`T FORESEE A LOT OF PLACES
GETTING ANY MORE THAN 0.10 EITHER. SO ITS NOT QUITE TIME TO GET
TOO EXCITED ABOUT A MAJOR SNOWFALL. PLUS...THERE IS AGAIN SOME
QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AND QUITE FRANKLY...I THINK THE MAIN STORY WE NEED TO BE SELLING
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS THAT OF THE COLD (WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DEADLY) RATHER THAN THE SNOW POTENTIAL (WHICH
LOOKS MORE LIKE AN INCONVENIENCE IN COMPARISON). ALL SIGNS POINT
TO SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR
MUCH OF THE OUTLYING AREAS...AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE CITIES.
ONCE SOME AREAS GO BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
THEY MAY NOT CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AND IF YOU ORDER NOW (BECAUSE WE CAN`T DO THIS ALL DAY)...WE`LL
INCLUDE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.
2155. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
We get up too early Ike.


Got up at 4.

Got up at 2:30 yesterday.

Your temp is 3 degrees colder. Surprising.
2156. aquak9
AND IF YOU ORDER NOW (BECAUSE WE CAN`T DO THIS ALL DAY)...WE`LL
INCLUDE ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.

See? the cold weather even makes the mets go batty.
2157. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning wu-bloggers.

Not as cold as I thought it would get.

Same here Ike, we only got down to 29.5º. Might there be the tiniest bit of hope for the next week?


I don't see any change in the Friday through Sunday period. The -10 line on the GFS is almost touching the NW FL. state line going into southern Alabama....Saturday morning through Monday morning.

Probably teens for lows here all 3 mornings. By Monday it should finally start a moderation.

Forecast for my neighborhood!!!! Warrington Florida!!


Thursday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
2159. IKE
From Jackson,MS...

"LOOKING BACK OVER THE PAST 150 OR SO YEARS AT THE JACKSON OBSERVING
SITE...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY ABOUT 9 TIMES WHEN THERE HAS BEEN A
STRING OF DAYS WHEN HIGHS HAVE BEEN 25 DEGREES OR LOWER. SOME OF
THESE HAVE BEEN VERY MEMORABLE YEARS: 1996, 1989, 1983, 1962, 1963,
1951, 1940, 1928, 1897. IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT...THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME SINCE 1996 TO HAVE SUCH A STRING. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN
TO PREPARE FOR A PROLONGED COLD PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BEGIN TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN ADVANCE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK."
Still waiting the MOBILE NWS Discussion. Guess the're running a little late this morning.
2161. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Forecast for my neighborhood!!!! Warrington Florida!!


Thursday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.


I think we'll finally see some. Maybe the models will change and throw more moisture on us.
2162. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010



...ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO BE FOLLOWED
BY EXTREMELY COLD AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT IS
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT PLANS SHOULD BE MADE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW WITH ROADS
BECOMING HAZARDOUS. STAY TUNED TO LATER WEATHER FORECASTS.

A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. BITTERLY COLD AIR...PERHAPS THE COLDEST SINCE AT
LEAST 2003...WILL PLUNGE INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY
APPROACH ZERO ACROSS SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL READINGS
BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND MINUS 10 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON.

MIDSOUTHERNS SHOULD PLAN AHEAD FOR THE POTENTIAL SNOW LATER THIS
WEEK AND THE EXTREME COLD TO OCCUR AFTERWARDS. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD
BE TAKE TO KEEP WATER PIPES FROM BURSTING. LIVESTOCK AND PETS
WILL NEED CARE FROM THE COLD. CAR BATTERIES SHOULD BE CHECKED TO
ENSURE THEY WILL START IN THE EXTREME COLD.

$$

JCL

2163. IKE
Met on channel 7 in Panama City said there could be some sleet and snow on Thursday from a line from Crestview,FL. to Tallahassee,FL.
MOBILE NWS

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WILL SEE A PIECE OF THE CENTRAL
STATES ARCTIC RIDGE MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS SOME 15 TO 20
DEGREES OFF THE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIND CHILLS COULD RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AT TIMES.

WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD DEEP LAYER AIRMASS IN PLACE...FORECASTERS
ARE WATCHING FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...WHICH COULD BRING A BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY INTERESTING AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY CARRYING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS TO THE NEXT
FRONT...WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE GULF COAST. THE
04.00 ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY...AT A SLOWER PACE ALONG WITH A WEAKER REFLECTED LOW THAN
THE 04.00 RUN OF THE GFS. THE LATTER => GFS...BEGINS TO GEN UP A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...TRACKING A
CLOSED SURFACE REFLECTION QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THURSDAY...EXITING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION IS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTH FROM ITS 24 HR COUNTERPART. EITHER WAY...THE DEEP
LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...THE TIMING...CHARACTER AND DURATION OF WHICH WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES. FORECASTERS THINK ALL OF
THE LOCAL AREA COULD SEE A PROBABILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY. WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT FOR NOW AND WILL NOT DELVE INTO
ACCUMULATIONS AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT AND MUCH MORE GUIDANCE
TO DIAGNOSE BEFORE THEN.

CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 40S THEN. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE AT
ALL SURPRISED THAT WE STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S MOST AREAS
THURSDAY IF THE CURRENT GFS PHYSICAL SOLUTION VERIFIES WITH ITS MORE
SOUTHERLY...EASTWARD TRACK OF ITS LOW. A VERY CHALLENGING
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. STAY TUNED.

THE PASSAGE OF NEXT COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACTS TO
REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL BE A
DRY BUT VERY COLD AIRMASS. THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE LOWER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

FORECASTERS HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ON LOWS
AND HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. /10
Morning all. 63 with some light rain here. Actually the rain just quit about 10 minutes ago.

And I have to go to work today [groan]. Sometimes having to go back to work after a couple days off is almost worse than not getting a break at all....
2167. IKE
Darn...your temp is falling steadily.

My low now 28.2.

Good Morning to all
It's almost as cold in N FL as it is in Boston....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. 63 with some light rain here. Actually the rain just quit about 10 minutes ago.

And I have to go to work today [groan]. Sometimes having to go back to work after a couple days off is almost worse than not getting a break at all....



Getting back into the swing of things so to speak.
2171. aquak9
yea, re-reading that, teens. obviously not a common event.

For panhandle/lower alabama folks-- anyone really:

Will ya'lls authorities set up shelters, for the homeless? or for folks who might not be prepared?
2172. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
yea, re-reading that, teens. obviously not a common event.

For panhandle/lower alabama folks-- anyone really:

Will ya'lls authorities set up shelters, for the homeless? or for folks who might not be prepared?


I'm sure they will. My wife and I put plastic around the bottom of our house yesterday.
Quoting IKE:
Darn...your temp is falling steadily.

My low now 28.2.


Only one obs station in your area, but its a little colder (25 deg at DW3846 Mossy Head) than your reading.
22 here in So MD and 30 in Dixfield, ME. What's wrong with this picture???? Wonder if we will see any of the upcoming storm.
2175. aquak9
thanks, ike.

I think our NEFla RedCross chapter has adopted tallahassee, we might have the counties all the way west to the state line in our jurisdiction now.

sigh...off to the poison place...

ya'll have a good day
2176. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
thanks, ike.

I think our NEFla RedCross chapter has adopted tallahassee, we might have the counties all the way west to the state line in our jurisdiction now.

sigh...off to the poison place...

ya'll have a good day


Have a nice day.
2177. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Only one obs station in your area, but its a little colder (25 deg at DW3846 Mossy Head) than your reading.


King Lake...across the street and Lake Holley(lake front property)...helps.
Quoting MarylandGirl:
22 here in So MD and 30 in Dixfield, ME. What's wrong with this picture???? Wonder if we will see any of the upcoming storm.


Looks like a chance of snow on Thursday and Friday for Charles and St. Mary's.
I'm colder than any reading around me.
I wonder why that is?
2182. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm colder than any reading around me.
I wonder why that is?


How far inland are you?

Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 25 min 19 sec ago
Clear
25 F
Clear
Windchill: 19 F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 11 F
Wind: 5 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.25 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
2183. unf97
Good morning fellow bloggers.

Getting ready to head to work after that long holiday weekend.

Current temp is 25.8 degrees at my home in North Jax this morning, which is so far my morning low.

Don't have the time for now to really chat, but I will say that the model runs appear to trending south again with the development and possible track of the GOM Low latewr this week. I will be intersted on the later GFS runs in particualr later today.

I will be back on the blog later on today.

Stay warm evryone!
39 first time under 40 this yr e cent florida the cool air is good for the local orange crops going to be a sweet yr
leftovers what part of c fl are you from. My low was 26.8 here in zephyrhills
2186. P451
GFS gone wacky on the 00Z run. Now has no snow in the SE and up the Eastern seaboard versus yesterday's map.

LOL? - Perhaps we can discount this model for this system.



Waiting for the NAM and it's 84hr range to get into play some time tomorrow.



The GFS has dropped the system entirely. Only an ensemble member (AP04) has the system...pretty much where the GFS had it yesterday. Confusing to say the least. A glitch?

Doda-I can only hope that is true! We usually get cold or freezing rain. Last storm was nice. Snow is soooo much better. I hate to get my hopes up this far out but I am!
34 at my house just north of Orlando. Have yet to hit freezing point this winter but may do so tonight. In about 8 to 10 days a warmup will comense. Also with the warm air will come a very active southern jet so severe weather will be a real possiblity in about 11 or 12 days from now. This is our winter in Central Florida right now after another week or 2 we go to spring and once April comes we go to summer. Get ready because the heat will be here before you know it.
I'm right down by the coast. 2 miles strait line to the gulf. On Bayou Grande
2190. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm right down by the coast. 2 miles strait line to the gulf. On Bayou Grande


Your temps have been in line with mine since you added your PWS.

I got down to 28.

I notice clouds are moving in to Mobile and Pensacola. It will be a cold day.
2191. IKE
Des Moines, Iowa (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 13 sec ago
Clear
-9 °F
Clear
Windchill: -24 °F

Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: -16 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.60 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 10.0 in
Elevation: 955 ft
Good Evening everyone.
Click on my post 2180 it'll take to my pws page. Theres a google map. Show ya right where it is.
G'morn Aussie! Hows 'cane season going down under?
Good morning follow Wubans!

Mobile is having a heat wave - temps almost up to 32!..lol
2196. P451
Are you in the south enjoying the cold as refreshing? Or...sick of it already?

Just wondering. When I lived in Florida for some time every time we got a "cold snap" down into the 40s I was in heaven and everyone was running for their coats.

I tawt a wuban was a sanwich. Like a he-woe.
I member one time, my momma said "Wandy! Go fetch me a wuban fwom the westwant down by the twain twacks"
Quoting P451:
Are you in the south enjoying the cold as refreshing? Or...sick of it already?

Just wondering. When I lived in Florida for some time every time we got a "cold snap" down into the 40s I was in heaven and everyone was running for their coats.



This is terrible and I am sick of it already. It looks like it will stay this cold until mid week next week. 7 to 8 freezes possible from now to next wed. Not good for citrus crop.
P'Doug - lol..looks like the cold has taken over!
2200. IKE
Quoting P451:
Are you in the south enjoying the cold as refreshing? Or...sick of it already?

Just wondering. When I lived in Florida for some time every time we got a "cold snap" down into the 40s I was in heaven and everyone was running for their coats.



Good morning/evening everyone.

I'm wishcasting to see a few flakes.

Just took my poodle for a walk. It's cold. I wouldn't want to be working out in it.
2201. IKE
Dew point here is 10.

Everyone get some chap-stick before your lips dry up.
Quoting AllyBama:
P'Doug - lol..looks like the cold has taken over!


My forecast calls for snow now. Thursday night. Unreal. I'm in a good mood!
Quoting IKE:


Good morning/evening everyone.

I'm wishcasting to see a few flakes.

Just took my poodle for a walk. It's cold. I wouldn't want to be working out in it.


Tricky forecast come late week because I'm noticing the models shifting some. A strong southern branch may keep rain over Florida not just Fri. but Sat. and maybe Sunday. This will be a very cold rain and yes, IKE maybe some snow where you live in the panhandle.
The snow that might fall in the panhandle won't fall Thursday but Friday or Saturday as all of this energy swings through.
Anyone know what the weather pattern globally and nationally(US) were like before the 1st week of December then on that 1st week?

I know its an El nino period but what is its phase at that time? (ascending, descending, etc)

Also what was the MJO at that time as well as any other patterns I neglected to mention?

PM me if this is all too long. Thanks in Advance


Snow flurries falling now.. Tuesday, Thurs, and Friday here all call for a 50% chance of snow. Under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I tawt a wuban was a sanwich. Like a he-woe.
I member one time, my momma said "Wandy! Go fetch me a wuban fwom the westwant down by the twain twacks"

It is just shorthand for wunderblogian...

G'mornin, all....good evening Aussie.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-051200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
550 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HARD FREEZE IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOR ALL
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES OVER THE
REGION TODAY.

A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CRITICALLY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN RETURNING LATER IN THE
WEEK. LATEST FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE HARD FREEZE ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAKE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS GOOD TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON THIS POSSIBLE WINTRY SCENARIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
This morning is the FIRST time in the six years I've lived in FL that I've had to WARM UP my car! BURRRRRRR...
I see the NWS has dropped my forecast for Friday night from 20 to 15. Dat's a bit cold for us...
This is the Warrington Florida Forecast. I'm wondering when the Winter Weather Advisory goes up?


Thursday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I see the NWS has dropped my forecast for Friday night from 20 to 15. Dat's a bit cold for us...


Yeah... they are now calling for IAH (Houston's main airport) to stay at or below freezing from Thursday night all the way through Saturday afternoon. Lows in the lower 20s.

I can hear the sounds of plumbers and drywall workers getting ready.
2214. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This is the Warrington Florida Forecast. I'm wondering when the Winter Weather Advisory goes up?


Thursday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.


LOL.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This is the Warrington Florida Forecast. I'm wondering when the Winter Weather Advisory goes up?


Thursday: A slight chance of rain before noon, then a chance of rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Breezy, with a north wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

NWS here usually won't put advisories like that up until 24-36 hours prior.


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 10:21 pm CST [8:51 pm WST] Monday 4 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth.

At 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
40 kilometres north northwest of Port Keats and
215 kilometres northeast of Wyndham and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.

The Tropical Low is located off the coast and may develop into a TROPICAL
CYCLONE on Tuesday morning in the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf if it moves
further offshore.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Daly
River Mouth during Tuesday.

HEAVY RAIN, which may cause significant stream rises and flooding of low lying
areas, is being experienced in the Darwin-Daly and east Kimberley Districts, and
is expected to extend into the northern Victoria River District later on
Tuesday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between WA/NT border and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [8:00 pm WST]:

.Centre located near...... 13.9 degrees South 129.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Tuesday 05 January [12:30 am WST
Tuesday 05 January].

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds and Heavy Rainfall
for people in the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Victoria River Districts.
Issued at 10:26 pm CST Monday 4 January 2010

Synoptic Situation: At 9:30 pm CST a developing TROPICAL LOW 995 hPa was located
near the west coast of the Top End near latitude 13.9S, longitude 129.3E, about
40 kilometres north northwest of Port Keats, and is moving south at 6 kilometres
per hour. The Tropical Low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Tuesday
morning in the southern Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. An active monsoon trough also
lies over the northern Top End.

Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts
is expected to continue and may cause significant stream rises and flooding of
low lying areas. These conditions are expected to extend into the northern
Victoria River District early on Tuesday.

Squally winds associated with showers and storms are expected to cause damaging
wind gusts up to 100 km/h over the the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem Districts,
extending into the northern Victoria River District during Tuesday. These
conditions will gradually ease over the eastern Arnhem District during Tuesday.

A Tropical Cyclone Advice is also current for this system - telephone 1300 659
211 [NT] or 1300 659 210 [WA].


The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose
outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 am CST Tuesday 05 January.
LOL.....Snow coming Thursday for the North Florida.....that is fantastic......LOL
Cyclone warning issued for Kimberley communities


A tropical low off Western Australia's far north coast is expected to intensify and move onshore tomorrow morning.

The system is currently about two-hundred kilometres north of the WA/Northern Territory border, tracking south-west at seven kilometres an hour.

A cyclone warning covers areas either side of the border, including the communities of Kalumburu, Wyndham and Kununurra, stretching to the Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory.

Residents are warned to expect wind gusts of up to one-hundred kilometres an hour and heavy rain.

- ABC
2219. IKE
You can see the system in the far northern plains that will be diving down here and bringing a chance of frozen precipitation...Link
99S


98S
Got down to 45 around MIA this morning...Skies should clear by early afternoon and will set the stage for 30's area wide metro dade/broward counties. adrian
37.9 Degrees in St. Petersburg, FL this Morning.
Looks like another Florida Clipper coming for Saturday nite also......LOL...Florida Clipper you gotta love......


2226. beell
east central fl cape canaveral area great fishing nice weather nice people temperature is slowly warmin up 47 after a low of 41 have a good day
2228. beell
Quoting IKE:
You can see the system in the far northern plains that will be diving down here and bringing a chance of frozen precipitation...Link


Not that one, IKE. The next one forming up in NW Canada, I think. The one in the northern plains will come through dry and clear the area by Tuesday.
2229. IKE
Quoting beell:


Not that one, IKE. The next one forming up in NW Canada, I think. The one in the northern plains will come through dry and clear the area by Tuesday.


You may be right.
In contradiction to some recent studies, he finds that the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide has not increased either during the past 150 years or during the most recent five decades.

Link
Quoting beell:


Not that one, IKE. The next one forming up in NW Canada, I think. The one in the northern plains will come through dry and clear the area by Tuesday.


Yep i believe you are correct...its the second Florida Clipper that clips us......LOL
National Situation Update: Monday, January 4, 2010
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather

West:
A storm system moving in off the Pacific will produce rain and mountain snow in the Northwest. Western Washington will receive up to an inch of rain with less than an inch expected in western Oregon. In higher elevations accumulations up to a foot of new snow is possible. Expect snow down to the major pass levels this morning but turning to rain later in the day. The system will spread precipitation into Idaho, western Montana, and northern Wyoming.

Midwest:
Near Lake-effect snow will continue through tomorrow around Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. The heaviest totals are expected in southwest Michigan and northwest Indiana. Most areas should see four to 10 inches with over a foot expected in some areas. A cold dome of high pressure will produce morning lows between -10F and -30F over the Northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley and from -10F to +20F over the remainder of the region.

South:
Light snow and flurries over the lower Mississippi Valley will come to an end this morning; however, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri could pick up an inch of new snow. Morning low temperatures will drop below freezing as far south as central Florida and southern Texas. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and northwest Florida for low relative humidity. A cold and very dry air mass will be in place for much of this week Red Flag conditions will be possible each day.

Northeast:
With the weekend storm moving away from the region the sustained winds will decrease to 10 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph, but will remain blustery through tomorrow. Snow will continue for much of the region today with significant accumulation in the Appalachians. Lake-effect snow squalls could produce up to a foot of snow through this afternoon with additional accumulations tonight and tomorrow. (NOAA, National Weather Service and Various Media Sources)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Hail Criterion Changes January 4, 2010

On Tuesday January 4, 2010 at 6:01 p.m. Central Standard Time (CST), the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Tulsa will operationally change the minimum hail size criterion used to issue Severe Thunderstorm Warning (SVR) and Severe Weather Statement (SVS) products. This change will affect all NWS Offices across the nation. The change will increase the minimum hail size criterion from three-quarter inch (penny) diameter or larger hail, which has been the NWS’s warning criterion for hail since the 1950s, to one inch (quarter) diameter or larger hail. No change is being made to the severe thunderstorm wind criterion of gusts equal to or in excess of 50 knots (58 mph). Based on results of the experimental test period, the number of severe thunderstorm warnings that NWS offices issue may decrease by as much as 30 to 40 percent annually. (Excerpt from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=hailchange)

Tropical Weather Outlook
No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No significant activity in the U.S.
Outside of the U.S. the following 3 events occurred:

* At 4:48 p.m. EST, on January 3, 2010, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred off shore 55 miles SSE of Gizo, New Georgia Islands, Solomon Islands at a depth of 6.2 miles. There were no reports of a tsunami, damage or injuries.
* At 5:36 p.m. EST, on January 3, 2010, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred off shore 65 miles SSE of Gizo, New Georgia Islands, Solomon Islands at a depth of 19 miles. There were no reports of a tsunami, damage or injuries.
* At 11:17 p.m. EST, on January 3, 2010, a magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred off shore 76 miles SSE of Gizo, New Georgia Islands, Solomon Islands at a depth of 21.7 miles. There were no reports of a tsunami, damage or injuries. (USGS, NWS Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Last Modified: Monday, 04-Jan-2010 08:31:37 EST
2233. beell
This piece of energy coming round the base of the trough shown here on the today's 06Z 500mb at +72 hrs

2234. IKE
According to the 12Z NAM it may be what is in the extreme northern/NW plains now...Link
Well i'm off to bed.
Good Night, Stay safe all.
Mornin all and HAPPY NEW YEAR! Back from my holiday hiatus. It was 33 when I woke up this morning and 32 when I walked out the door. It was 42 when I went to bed at midnight last night! Frost on the windshield. It didn't get above 50 yesterday!I can't remember the last time that happened here in Ft. Myers. WHAT A COLD FRONT! I hope you all had a wonderful holiday!
2237. beell
Shows up in the 12Z NAM at 24 over far NW Canada. The vort in the northern plains streaking across the FL panhandle at that time.

I can't believe its only 39deg at 10am at my house here in Tampa......geesh....I thought my dog was trained......but the little sucker just does not wanna go outside......he better not be finding a hinding spot that i don't know about.
2239. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

Hey southerners soon to be dealing with dew points in the teens: think about static electricity at the gas pump!

No matter hold cold it is, if you get in and out of a car while refueling a couple of times, you are setting yourself up for a bad situation. When dewpoints are above 50 or so, we enjoy water vapor leaching away static electricity charges well enough that we rarely build a charge strong enough for arcing. But when it is anomalously cold, that requires dew points that are colder. It is very possible to build a charge strong enough to set gasoline vapors on fire when it arcs, especially by the rubbing of synthetic materials against one another. For example, a good winter coat and a car seat!

When you get out of a car at the gas pump, make sure you touch some metal. Painted metal on a car is usually OK. If I know today is a day when I have been shocking myself on doors and other people and I want to be sure, I'll even touch the bolts that hold the latch on the door frame of the car (little, unpainted, metal bar midway from bottom to window level).

If you do not discharge, when does it happen? Consider a gas pump handle. Some metal under the rubber/plastic cover and a metal receptacle at the top of the gas tank on your car. If you are charged, relative to that of your car, this spot, at the top of your gas tank, is where the arc occurs. This is a channel of electricity that measures well over a thousand degrees F right at the your car's open gas tank!

Stay off the cell phone and do not get back in your car until you are finished refueling, regardless of how cold you may be.

(This has been a Public Service Announcement by the NoOneLikesABurningCarAtAGasStationAlliance)
7.2 Earthquake off the Solomon Islands this morning.
sleet still for me watch our nws blow this haha
Quoting TampaSpin:


what the heck is that precipitation?!? its not snowing almost to Dothan is it?? Gosh thats near the fla line! I thought the snow chance was thurs afternoon not today!
2244. IKE
Quoting beell:
Shows up in the 12Z NAM at +24 over far NW Canada. The vort in the northern plains straking across the FL panhandle at that time.



I see what you're saying...thanks...
2245. unf97
Good morning again folks.

JAX WFO Current Conditions at 10 a.m.

Sunny

Temperature: 34 degrees
Humidity: 40 %
Wind Speed: NW 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.17" (1021.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 12 degrees (-11 C)
Wind Chill: 27 degrees (-3 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi

I live only 5 miles from the WFO, so obviously my observations from my home are very similar to theirs, so I'll post their official observations off an on today while I am here at work.

Hope everyone is bracing themselves for even more extreme cold by this weekend. I am really observing that very carefully, along with the models handling of this GOM disturbancee during the Wednesday-Friday night period.

My morning low was at 25.7 degrees when I left my home this morning shortly before 8 a.m.
Quoting IKE:
Dew point here is 10.

Everyone get some chap-stick before your lips dry up.

LOL! Sometimes I just can't believe the serendipitous timing of WU posts...I just put this on, and it's a delight in all its versions. (I don't have stock...it's just a lovely product.)
MADE IN MARYLAND!


Smith's "Rosebud" Products
Good morning from Arlington, TX.
Quoting twhcracker:


what the heck is that precipitation?!? its not snowing almost to Dothan is it?? Gosh thats near the fla line! I thought the snow chance was thurs afternoon not today!


There are actaully 2 seperate bits of energy. One comes late this tonite/tomorrow as seen on the WV and the other comes late in the week.

2249. Drakoen
The NAM 12z shows more warm air advection than the GFS preventing snow from falling across southern portions of the Southeastern states. The NAM also shows the system as more of a surface wave like the ECMWF 00z and CMC 00z. These models show the low track further north than the GFS who still keep it off-shore in the GOM.
Quoting cajunkid:
In contradiction to some recent studies, he finds that the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide has not increased either during the past 150 years or during the most recent five decades.

Link


To assess whether the airborne fraction is indeed increasing, Wolfgang Knorr of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol reanalyzed available atmospheric carbon dioxide and emissions data since 1850 and considers the uncertainties in the data.

For every study that says, yes, there is one that says no...
That Low in the NW Atlantic moving Westard is crazy.....what a freaking trouble maker..
Well, both Orlando airports registered a low of 33 F this morning, whereas my house came in at a fairly inconsequential 31 F. The urban heat island strikes again. Post 2243, I was wondering the same thing, so I checked the composite radar loop on the nws site and it shows a more realistic portrayal of precip in the area. There are really just a few light passing snow showers (reaching the ground or virga?). It does look like Mon tgomery will get a brief light snow shower in the next half hour or so.

-Michael
I AM MAKING THIS TODAY......

WHITE LIGHTNING CHICKEN CHILI

4 boneless skinless chicken breasts, cubed
□ 2 cans great northern beans, rinsed
□ 1 whole white onion, diced
□ 1 cup frozen white corn
□ 1 yellow bell pepper, diced
□ 1 ½ cups fresh mushrooms, sliced
□ 1 bulb fresh garlic, minced
□ 6 habanera peppers
□ ½ cup white wine
□ 1 can chicken broth
□ 2 tsp. cumin powder
□ 1 tsp. coriander powder
□ 1 tbsp. ground white pepper
□ 3 tbsp. olive oil
□ 1 lime, squeezed for juice
□ ½ cup sour cream
□ ½ cup shredded pepper jack cheese

Heat olive oil in large sauté pan to medium-high heat, and add garlic, onions, and chicken. Sauté for 10-15 minutes or until chicken is no longer pink.
In a large Dutch oven add chicken broth, cumin, coriander, ground white pepper, lime juice, habanera peppers (if mild chili is preferred, use fewer hot peppers, as desired - the quantity given is very hot!), and bring to a boil. Reduce heat to medium, cover with lid, and let simmer for 10-15 minutes. Add the chicken, garlic, and onion mixture, plus the corn, beans, yellow bell pepper, mushrooms, and white wine.

Cover and let simmer for approximately 30-35 minutes.

When finished, remove from heat and stir in the sour cream. Garnish with the shredded pepper jack cheese, and serve with crusty garlic bread

2254. NEwxguy
Enjoying the Floridians,going crazy over the possiblity of snow,whats the big deal?I just had two straight days of snow,enjoy it,its fun.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good morning from Arlington, TX.


Well do you think skies will clear for Friday and Saturday for temps to tank over TX?
Quoting NEwxguy:
Enjoying the Floridians,going crazy over the possiblity of snow,whats the big deal?I just had two straight days of snow,enjoy it,its fun.


When it shows 45deg on my computer i will walk outside and take down Xmas but it shows 39deg now......i am still in hybernation......LOL
2257. NEwxguy
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.
2258. help4u
Peru's mountain people 'face extinction because of cold conditions'.In the observer of UK.
finally they heard me they mention the wintry precip more info below :0
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
916 AM CST MON JAN 4 2010

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY AND
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S. THE COLD REINFORCING AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH LATER TODAY
CLEARING MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN AND SOME CLOUDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SHOULD WARRANT A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL REEVALUATE THE SITUATION LATER TODAY
FOR POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNINGS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY ON TUESDAY
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME SUN SHOULD BE SEEN ON
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /6 PM TUESDAY - SUNDAY EVENING/...
AWAITING THE 12Z MODEL SUITE TO MAKE ANY/FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO
THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE `POLAR EXPRESS` STILL ON TRACK FOR
THURSDAY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MODIFICATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
MENTION THAT THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF TRENDS ARE IN LINE WITH A
TAD MORE COOLING PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE OTHER ISSUE THAT MAY NEED ADDRESSING IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIIPITATION FRIDAY IN THE LOWER VALLEY FROM
EXTREME EASTERN HIDALGO TO THE COAST.
YESTERDAY`S TREND FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE...INITIALLY HELD AS A CLOUD/VIRGA LAYER AROUND 700
MB...IS NOT ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS WELL AS A POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS JET STREAK WHOSE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION WOULD SETTLE OVER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE. GFS MODEL SOUNDING
FOR KBRO SITTING RIGHT ON THE SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/RAIN LINE...AND
NOT TOO FAR FROM EVEN ALL FROZEN (SNOW) ESPECIALLY IF EVAPORATIVE
COOLING COMES INTO PLAY. WILL SCUTINIZE 12Z DATA VERY CLOSELY IN
DETERMINING IF A NEED FOR A WINTRY MIX ARISES.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY (30S FOR MOST) IS ON TRACK AND MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD NUDGING AS THINGS PLAY OUT
.

MANY MORE DETAILS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION...SHORTLY
BEFORE 2 PM.


&&

2260. Patrap
Do folks in New England have Hurricane Tracking Charts ?

Do they know how to use them?

Just a tad curious ,..LOL
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


MOst have warm weather gear but, not enough for a 3 week supply like those up North do..I was just thinking about the girls at my sons HS and how fashion conscious they are having to wear the same clothes every 4-5days.....its the snow birds and vacationers that bring the tee's and shorts that don't bring the warm stuff...LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Do folks in New England have Hurricane Tracking Charts ?

Do they know how to use them?


LMAO......Pat...tusha...LOL
here it comes
Quoting NEwxguy:
Enjoying the Floridians,going crazy over the possiblity of snow,whats the big deal?I just had two straight days of snow,enjoy it,its fun.


LOL! And the wrapping of pipes, etc. We haven't done a thing to ours. Hope we won't be sorry and have to eat crow with Old Bay Seasoning...but never have had to...YET!
Personally, I just wear some of the wardrobe I wear when visiting relatives in Michigan. It feels kind of nice for a change actually!
Quoting tornadodude:
here it comes


Most if any is not making it too the ground.
Hopefully, the GFS is correct. The 06Z runs points to a changing pattern, beginning on 1/10/10. Hopefully, a moderating trend takes hold, breaking this cold snap, affecting the Northern/Cental Plains, Midwest, Mid-South and the SE US. Longe range weather discussion from NWS DFW, TX talks about a moderating trend beginning next Sunday.

In the DFW area, we've been very fortunate, up until today. Temps were about 5F below normal, since our Christmas Eve storm. Pleasant, lows near 30FF, highs near 50F, with light winds.

A portion of the Arctic air affecting the SE US has nosed into the Southern Plains. Lows the next few mornings will be near 25F/highs near 40-45F. Wednesday will be our warm day, highs near 50F. The sun feels nice out of the wind.

Then the "Arctic/Siberian blast", building up in NW Canada will shoot down the spine of the Rockies late Wednesday through Saturday. We're expecting lows near 14-15F/high near 28-32F for about 48 hrs, with a warm up to 50F by Sunday afternoon. During the height of our Arctic Blast, we will be about 20F below normal, but it could be alot worse.
2253. Oh, Tampa, would you please just double the recipe and I'll pay for ingredients and postage? TIA, dear.
Is it to Southern to wear mittens when trying to blog.....LOL
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


Having lived all my life in NW FL, I do have heavier clothing for just these occasions. I work outdoors and find that layering works best for me so that if I get too warm, I can peel down and then add back on if I get too cool again.
When the North wind is really howling off of the Bay, there can be 10 degrees difference on the North side of a property and the South side if blocked by the wind. Makes for challenging wardrobe selection.
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Most if any is not making it too the ground.


true
Is tusha a Tampa variation of TUSHIE?
Quoting TampaSpin:
That Low in the NW Atlantic moving Westard is crazy.....what a freaking trouble maker..
the first of many as long as the block is in place
That chili recipe sounds delicious!
Quoting RitaEvac:


Well do you think skies will clear for Friday and Saturday for temps to tank over TX?


Thursday and Friday will be our coldest nights.

Right now NWS forecasts show lows up near the Red River, portions of NW TX into the Big Country may see temps between 5 to 10F.

DFW is calling of 14F/15F.

For inland locations near Houston, TX, about 20F.

Upper Gulf Coast, temps in the upper 20's.

Rio Grande Valley near 28-32F, including Brownsville, TX. With mid 30's on the S TX Coast.

Kinda curious to see if the NWS/GFS models are right!
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!

Me, too! I love my waterproof Nubuck Keens and Clark's. I've worn them from Texas to North Dakota...hot and cold weather...they breathe.

There's often really good deals on Keens at the Sierra Trading Post website...they can be pricey otherwise...but totally worth it.
do u all read my post on 2259 and i want to know what u all think
2280. SQUAWK
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Is tusha a Tampa variation of TUSHIE?


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL
2281. unf97
Quoting tornadodude:
here it comes


Some of that reflected on radar is virga except in areas in NE Louisiana, Northern Missisippi where freezing drizzle and light snow was reaching the surface. A few snow flurries reported in NW ALabama.
Good morning Storm
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


I don't venture out much unless it is work related.
2284. Patrap







Quoting SQUAWK:


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL


Hey there, Squawk -- Happy New Year!

How do you make the French accents? I don't know and have needed them more than once!
2286. unf97
Good morning Storm.

Just missed the freezing mark down there I see.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Probably more like touché from someone who does not know how to spell it. LOL


LOL.....touché it was to be.....hey i can't spell worth a crap....not one of my better things i do....

see if leaves precip right over me just like the our forecast discussion said a hr ago :0
2290. unf97
Quoting StormW:


Yea...had there not been any wind, probably would have hit the freezing mark.


Yes you are right about that. I thought the temp was going to get down in the low 20s in interior NE FL this morning, but the temps were slow to drop after midnight. Still bottomed out at 25.7 degrees this morning.
Can't wait till next week because by then we will be back into the 70's maybe 80 if were lucky by the end of the week. Also, with this warm air returning will be severe weather especially for Florida sometime late next week.
Quoting fwblinda:


Having lived all my life in NW FL, I do have heavier clothing for just these occasions. I work outdoors and find that layering works best for me so that if I get too warm, I can peel down and then add back on if I get too cool again.
When the North wind is really howling off of the Bay, there can be 10 degrees difference on the North side of a property and the South side if blocked by the wind. Makes for challenging wardrobe selection.
The one thing I have yet to figure out is my shoe attire. I hate having cold feet!!

Get some good wool socks. REI has some "smartwool" socks that don't itch at all, and are SUPER comfy. (they are expensive, but soooo worth it). When it is really cold, avoid cotton socks. They tend to get wet, and that just makes your feet colder.

If wind is an issue, work in a windbreaker for your outer layer. I personally use a North Face fleece for my inner jacket layer (over an undershirt and sweater), zipped into a North Face "guide jacket" (basically a rain jacket/windbreaker/outer shell). Super warm, and I can work with the layers as I need to.
Hudson Bay frozen, portions of Great Lakes are icing up, and most lakes over Minnesota are frozen

Quoting RitaEvac:
Hudson Bay frozen, portions of Great Lakes are icing up, and most lakes over Minnesota are frozen


Is that ice I see on the Great Salt Lake?
Quoting btwntx08:
do u all read my post on 2259 and i want to know what u all think


Enjoy, looks like you're going to see your snow!! Model runs show it also I see. I know its fun to see snow, especially for you :0)
2296. SQUAWK
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL.....touché it was to be.....hey i can't spell worth a crap....not one of my better things i do....


I had to Google it myself just to make sure. LOL ------ And for AWAKE, I copied the text from Google and pasted it on the page, so I have no idea other than that how to get it. Happy new Year to you also!
Quoting jeffs713:

Is that ice I see on the Great Salt Lake?


yea
Quoting Bordonaro:


Enjoy, looks like you're going to see your snow!! Model runs show it also I see. I know its fun to see snow, especially for you :0)


Still have snow coming for Florida??
Reached a low of 18 here... What are the chances of snow in central GA?
And I know a lot of it isn't making it to the ground, but that snow line looks like it's gonna miss us... to the south! First time ive ever seen anything like that...ever!
One could always just wear ski boots for warmth. Makes one walk vary oddly, but warm you will be...
;-)
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm curious,even though its not normal for this kind of extended cold,it does happen,do people in Florida keep warm coats or extra warm clothing,or do they just don't venture out much.


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.
Quoting btwntx08:
do u all read my post on 2259 and i want to know what u all think

I think the precip type will be very "dicey". It all depends on timing of the cold air vs. moisture availability. If the cold air is there (and deep enough) when precip is coming down, then you are good. Since the models have at best a 3-hour window for precip and temps, it will be close. (and that is the NAM, which is just starting to run for the time period in question).


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

Looks like the temps are low enough in N Florida and the panhandle
Quoting Orcasystems:


Still have snow coming for Florida??


YES dang you! Would you please stop your dance and any other spells you have put on us.....LOL
Quoting RMM34667:


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.

umm... www.amazon.com? (of course, that only works if you are shopping BEFORE the cold air. once it gets there... um... have fun.)
Quoting TampaSpin:


YES dang you! Would you please stop your dance and any other spells you have put on us.....LOL


Not until we actually "see" snow.. then I have to stop.. need it to warm up by the 13th.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting RMM34667:


I am from Boston, been here in Tampa Bay 6 years. I do not have a winter coat. Up till now my TOWNIE or PATRIOT sweatshirts have been enough. I went shopping for a coat last weekend - but failed. Some stores do not even carry Woman's Coats. Those that did had slim pickings.


Funny..the retailers over the past few years in Tampa and southward have been eating the winter stuff....Dillard choose not to sell any Coats, Gloves are much of any winter stuff this year.....wow did they blow it this year.
Destructive tsunami crashes over Solomon Islands
Associated Press
10 mins ago

WELLINGTON, New Zealand %u2013 A tsunami unleashed by a major earthquake plowed into the Solomon Islands on Monday with the crashing waters devastating at least one village.

Initial reports said no one was seriously hurt.

A series of major quakes have rocked the South Pacific region since Sunday, with three powerful temblors striking Monday, including a 7.2 magnitude tremor. The Solomon Island's National Disaster Management Office said reports of the devastation were beginning to filter in late Monday.

WHOOPS, NEW BLOG...
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