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Top 10 Weather Videos of 2014

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:48 PM GMT on December 26, 2014

The year 2014 had many spectacular extreme weather events caught on video; the most remarkable were of flash flooding in Serbia and a tornado in Russia. Two artistic videos that were favorites of mine included beautiful time-lapse pieces set to music taken of monsoon thunderstorms in Arizona and the sunset/aurora on top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Here, then, are my choices for 2014's top 10 weather videos:


#1. A Russian man pulls out of his garage just as a tornado arrives. He tries to go back in the garage, but it is destroyed before he can. Note: The dash cam date is incorrect; the tornado occurred on August 29, 2014 in Bashkiria, Russia. According to http://www.extremestorms.com.au/tornado-bashkiria-russia/, the tornado was an EF-3 that killed two people and injured 80.

#2. Nicolaus Wegner's Stormscapes 2 video is the most impressive collection of time-lapse severe storm footage I've ever seen. His 7-minute time-lapse compilation of his May - September 2014 adventures in Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado feature an impressive rainbow at 0:40, an incredible orange cumulonimbus at 4:00, a sequence of spectacular funnel clouds and tornadoes beginning at 5:10, and some stunning mammatus clouds at 6:04. Highly recommended.


#3. Torrential rains in Serbia in September 2014 caused flash floods that killed one person and swept way cars.


#4. New surveillance camera video released on October 23, 2014, of Hurricane Odile in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on September 14, 2014, as violent winds in the back eyewall destroyed the hotel lobby where the iCyclone chase team was sheltering.


#5. Futuristic and creative 3-D weather graphics like you've never seen before light up the screen in this forecast for September 23, 2050 video released by the Weather Channel. The video was made in response to an appeal by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to television weather presenters world-wide to imagine a “weather report from the year 2050,” based on the best science we have as summarized in the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. If humanity’s current "business as usual" approach to emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continues, the average temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere could rise more than 4°C (7.2°F) by the end of the 21st century. But what does a global average temperature rise really mean? How would we experience it on a daily basis? The video imagines a future when it wouldn't take a landfalling hurricane to push water levels two feet above normal in Miami Beach--the onshore winds of a hurricane passing 400 miles offshore could cause that level of flooding, due to sea level rise. The report also envisions that the current 15-year drought affecting the Southwest U.S. will continue into 2050, becoming a decades-long "megadrought". On the lighter side, we hear about a new baseball team called the "Alberta Clippers" (named after a type of fast-moving snowstorm that originates in Alberta), and see Jim Cantore calling up hurricane tracking charts on his outstretched hand.


#6. Spectacular sunset, aurora, and sunrise from the top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire on September 12 - 13, 2014.

\
#7. Official trailer for the 2014 Hollywood tornado disasters movie, "Into the Storm". The most impressive special effects are shown here, so save yourself the painful melodrama of the movie and just watch the trailer. My review of this disaster of a movie is here.


#8. A Low-Precipitation (LP) supercell thunderstorm on May 18, 2014, between Wright and Newcastle, WY. The best footage begins about 0:50 into the clip. The rotation of the thunderstorm is beautifully captured. LP supercells usually form in dry regions, where there might be just enough moisture to form the storm, but not enough moisture to rain very hard. You can usually find the updraft on the rear flank (back) of the storm. On radar, an LP will not show up as a hook echo because there's not enough precipitation within the storm to provide the reflectivity. These storms might not look that strong, but they can pack a punch. LP supercells often produce tornadoes and large hail.


#9. An EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds hit this camp for oil workers just south of Watford City, North Dakota, on May 27, 2014. The tornado injured nine people and damaged or destroyed 15 trailers. Dan Yorgason, who lives in a neighboring workers camp to the one destroyed, filmed the tornado from inside his truck. "The tornado was coming down the hill along our only escape route. There was nowhere for us to go. It was crazy," he said. The contrast of the brown of the lower part of the funnel with the white portion of the upper funnel is particularly striking 2:00 into the video.


#10. Rare twin tornadoes near Pilger and Wisner, Nebraska as caught by iowachase.com (AKA ‪‪StormChasingVideo‬‬.com.)

Steve Gregory will be covering my blog for me from Sunday December 28 until January 2. Have a Happy New Year, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Or, to be more accurate, there are nine weather videos for actual weather in that occurred 2014...
Where is the cold that was broadcast to come our way? Every forecast it is given and pulled away like a carrot in front of the donkey,lol. What is keeping us in this pattern that will not allow the jet stream to drop south? We are entering our 2nd week of winter with average temps to above for many in the East, which is fine except the models keep saying it is going to flip...but it dosen't seem to be able.
It is in this part of the world. lol

Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'
Just stop GEM, stop playing the games.
Quoting lostinohio:

Where is the cold that was broadcast to come our way? Every forecast it is given and pulled away like a carrot in front of the donkey,lol. What is keeping us in this pattern that will not allow the jet stream to drop south? We are entering our 2nd week of winter with average temps to above for many in the East, which is fine except the models keep saying it is going to flip...but Just be glad you're not a natural gas trader. The unusually mild winter is not just affecting the south, it's affecting most of the country. We're not the only ones that have been suckered in by these models showing cold weather "any day now". Nat gas traders have been long from over a month and are now having to cover their long positions. That means That traders who had purchases futures contracts for over $6.00 per million BTU are looking at the end of the month with a spot price of about $3.00. It's kind of like having to pay $6.00 for a Big Mac currently selling for $3.00. This long covering buying is leading to what's described as "panic selling" in the nat gas market this morning. There's a lot of trader's kids who didn't get that GI Joe with Kung Fu grip they wanted this Christmas. :-)
Tornadoes are truly amazing.
One second there's no wind and a few seconds later the wind is blowing 200 mph. Then a few seconds later there's very little wind again.

In just a matter of seconds your whole world has been changed (if you're still alive).
Made a similar point a few days ago. Seems like it's dangling out there "always 10 days out." Used to work at a New England ski resort. I remember winters like this that just never seem to get going. I'd wager this winter will be a let down for easterm skiers. Lots of rain/ice/mix events to come. Just my opinion.

Don't worry, after a lame winter for snow, most of the east will be hit with a fluke April Fool's snowstorm; about the time everyone is taking their boats, and pool/beach supplies out of storage.

Let me eat crow, I don't care. I've just seen this pattern before. Should be a good winter for east coast surfers, especially OBX northward.

Quoting 4. lostinohio:

Where is the cold that was broadcast to come our way? Every forecast it is given and pulled away like a carrot in front of the donkey,lol. What is keeping us in this pattern that will not allow the jet stream to drop south? We are entering our 2nd week of winter with average temps to above for many in the East, which is fine except the models keep saying it is going to flip...but it dosen't seem to be able.
FA does state a storm in early Jan that the GEM and GFS are showing, taking an inland track.
JANUARY 2015
1st-3rd. Stormy: snow mountains, wet coastal plain. Umbrellas up for the Mummers Parade.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'


I had mince pie. Family tradition, going back many years and generations. Pie was considered basic breakfast fare on the farm years ago...a practice carried on as a post-holiday tradition in my family. I don't think cheesecake's such a stretch....bet it made for a tasty breakfast.
Been snowing for over an hour...it started as rain so it is having a hard time sticking. .but...it's snow and we're happy
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'
Thanks Doc. Cool vids , especially Odile's Vicious blast. May you and yours have a safe New Years......2015...Tempis fugit...



snow storm!
Quoting hurricanes2018:



snow storm!


12Z GFS is showing snow for northern Virginia on December 30th.
It forms from a secondary low that forms.
Then it looks like they'll be another system around Jan. 3rd- 4th (similar to what you're showing).
I got snow falling in 69044 ! 3-5" expected. This is from Winter Storm Fay. (Eris)
Quoting 14. hurricanes2018:




snow storm!
Don't get excited just yet, the models are playing games, but a storm in that timeframe seems possible.
Look at the high pressure over Montana on Tuesday. Will that be a record high air pressure if this verifies?

Quoting lostinohio:
Where is the cold that was broadcast to come our way? Every forecast it is given and pulled away like a carrot in front of the donkey,lol. What is keeping us in this pattern that will not allow the jet stream to drop south? We are entering our 2nd week of winter with average temps to above for many in the East, which is fine except the models keep saying it is going to flip...but it dosen't seem to be able.

Cooler temperatures are on the way to end this month and for most of January with significant ridging forecast to develop across Alaska. Not brutally cold, but below average. The polar vortex is forecast to split in the day 6-8 period, but stratospheric warming doesn't look quite significant to completely disrupt the vortex. The next warming event should do it for sure, forcing a -AO and setting the stage for what I'm stil predicting should be a very cold February.
Thanks for the Videos Dr. Masters....
I long for those bygone days days of operational forecasting.

Indexes and cycles are all the rage this year. Long range forecasts coupled with zero verification.
AO
NAO
MJO
PDO
SSW
QBO
Polar Vortex
Kelvin Waves
Siberian Snowpack
El Nino
Womens Hemlines
Farmers Almanac
Madame Zelda
etc...etc...etc...

A forecast 3 days out is soooo boring. We're left with copy/paste of model frames followed by a forecast of "Interesting".

Here endeth a mild rant!
:)

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:00 AM PST on December 26, 2014
Clear
49.9 °F
Clear
Windchill: 43 °F
Humidity: 26%
Dew Point: 16 °F
Wind: 22.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 28.0 mph
Pressure: 30.06 in (Rising)
Cold here this morning and windy. Low was 50.9 here.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters!
It will be interesting to see how or if a lack of snowpack may affect temperatures beyond January.

Quoting 22. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Cooler temperatures are on the way to end this month and for most of January with significant ridging forecast to develop across Alaska. Not brutally cold, but below average. The polar vortex is forecast to split in the day 6-8 period, but stratospheric warming doesn't look quite significant to completely disrupt the vortex. The next warming event should do it for sure, forcing a -AO and setting the stage for what I'm stil predicting should be a very cold February.
WRT sar's quote of ohio's post, that's what you get for listening to a self promoting loudmouth, no matter how fervently you want his message to be true. Would that the damage this joker is doing is limited to the finances of energy speculators. At least there would be poetic justice in that. But no such luck, I'm afraid
Quoting Patrap:
The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'


But leftover gingerbread most certainly is!
Hey folks, hope everyone enjoyed nice holidays, including our doc (thanks for all those stunning videos!). Warnings are up for (south)-western parts of Germany (including my place Mainz!) because - you wouldn't believe it! - some winter days are at our doorsteps, starting with low "Hiltrud" which should bring us a decent amount of snow (and wind) tomorrow. Today eastern parts or Germany already saw some flakes, and in the Alps folks are very happy that finally the green pastures are getting their snow cover in order to enjoy longing skiers.




Analysis map for tomorrow with "Hiltrud".


Blocking high over the Atlantic will "protect" us from warmer air, while "Hiltrud" is going to move right over my house, lol.


Current airmasses (saved image).


Hiltrud approaching the European continent from the British Isles.
No sympathy for commodity gamblers here:

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Yogi Berra

ECMWF 12z for Tuesday, temps at 850hpa in Celsius.

In the last days of the old year central and southeastern Europe will be flooded with very cold air from the northeast. A lot of snow is forecast for the Balkans as well.


Very strong winds will batter the region with this cyclone to boot.
It's snowing hard here in North-West England currently. Forecast to continue snowing throughout the night and into tomorrow. Nice change from the wet, windy weather we've had the last few weeks.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Those are some incredible videos, especially the Stormscape 2 time lapse.

I think we can all agree that this year was a bit more on the boring-side when it came to significant and memorable weather events, especially in the U.S. However, The Pilger, NE tornado family on June 16 definitely sticks out to me. To have one supercell produce four violent (EF4) tornadoes is very uncommon and incredible to begin with, but on multiple occasions, having two of them on the ground simultaneously is absolutely phenomenal. I'd say the Pilger event is the top meteorological event in the U.S. this year.


And of course, I hope everybody had a marvelous Christmas yesterday!
Quoting 35. ZacWeatherKidUK:

It's snowing hard here in North-West England currently. Forecast to continue snowing throughout the night and into tomorrow. Nice change from the wet, windy weather we've had the last few weeks.


Ah, nice to hear that, thank you, Zac. I hope my brother with his family followed my early advice to drive from our parents near Frankfurt back to his home in Cologne already this afternoon and not - as planned - tomorrow morning; otherwise they would run right into these maybe even blizzard like conditions in the mountanious regions of western Germany.
Quoting 26. beell:

I long for those bygone days days of operational forecasting.

Indexes and cycles are all the rage this year. Long range forecasts coupled with zero verification.
AO
NAO
MJO
PDO
SSW
QBO
Polar Vortex
Kelvin Waves
Siberian Snowpack
El Nino
Womens Hemlines
Farmers Almanac
Madame Zelda
etc...etc...etc...

A forecast 3 days out is soooo boring. We're left with copy/paste of model frames followed by a forecast of "Interesting".

Here endeth a mild rant!
:)




I could not agree more. Fortunately, the NWS often does much more with the 3-day forecast than copy model output and say "interesting."
This is the beginning of the bitter cold moving south..
Quoting beell:
I long for those bygone days days of operational forecasting.

Indexes and cycles are all the rage this year. Long range forecasts coupled with zero verification.
AO
NAO
MJO
PDO
SSW
QBO
Polar Vortex
Kelvin Waves
Siberian Snowpack
El Nino
Womens Hemlines
Farmers Almanac
Madame Zelda
etc...etc...etc...

A forecast 3 days out is soooo boring. We're left with copy/paste of model frames followed by a forecast of "Interesting".

Here endeth a mild rant!
:)

I've found women's hemlines made from the Old
Farmer's Almanac
are pretty reliable indicators for the next 340 hours. :-)
This is what is going to happen Sunday.
Quoting 41. Climate175:

This is what is going to happen Sunday.
I'm enjoying that right here, right now !

Very nice, and a Siesta is in order !

Laters>>>>>>>>>
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
No sympathy for commodity gamblers here:

%u201CIt's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.%u201D

Yogi Berra
Although, if we didn't have gamblers, we also wouldn't have enough natural gas if the models had turned out to be right. If the gamblers believe there really will be significant cold weather, they are going to pay above market to mobilize all the supplies they can get. The price is going to go up as demand outstrips supply, and they are hoping they are on the right side of the trade. In this case, they weren't. I don't think anyone, including the speculators, think they deserve sympathy but, when it's 10 degrees outside, you'd probably be reasonably happy that there's natural gas available, even if it costs more. Since they guessed wrong, we can all enjoy at least a brief respite in the rising prices of natural gas.
Hi Levi.

Is CDAS a good tool to look for sst anomalies? I ask because as you may know the Nino areas are going down fast especially Nino 1+2.
Quoting 43. sar2401:

Although, if we didn't have gamblers, we also wouldn't have enough natural gas if the models had turned out to be right. If the gamblers believe there really will be significant cold weather, they are going to pay above market to mobilize all the supplies they can get. The price is going to go up as demand outstrips supply, and they are hoping they are on the right side of the trade. In this case, they weren't. I don't think anyone, including the speculators, think they deserve sympathy but, when it's 10 degrees outside, you'd probably be reasonably happy that there's natural gas available, even if it costs more. Since they guessed wrong, we can all enjoy at least a brief respite in the rising prices of natural gas.

Don't know if consumer prices track well with the market. Consumers buy natural gas from monopolies, supposedly regulated at the state level. A natural gas supplier can tell the agency: "We have to set our rates at x because we are paying y under long term contract, and if we don't get x we'll have to reevaluate the level of political contributions to which you have become accustomed"
Quoting 43. sar2401:

Although, if we didn't have gamblers, we also wouldn't have enough natural gas if the models had turned out to be right. If the gamblers believe there really will be significant cold weather, they are going to pay above market to mobilize all the supplies they can get. The price is going to go up as demand outstrips supply, and they are hoping they are on the right side of the trade. In this case, they weren't. I don't think anyone, including the speculators, think they deserve sympathy but, when it's 10 degrees outside, you'd probably be reasonably happy that there's natural gas available, even if it costs more. Since they guessed wrong, we can all enjoy at least a brief respite in the rising prices of natural gas.


Don't see the relationship between "traders" and the supply of natural gas. A trader is only interested in the price of his contract increasing so he makes a profit. I understand that power companies have an interest in future prices to lock in a cost, but they actually take delivery of the commodity, where traders will let a contract expire worthless if they are on the wrong side.
47. vis0
i see washi115 is meditating to bring snow to WashDC. oooooooohhhhhhhhhmmmm...........................yy yyyyy..wheres da snow!

If the VId is not showing up pah-leeese do not shake or blow on the screen to try and advance the process of processing. It will be processed within 250-322 hamster wheel cycles. Stank You

BTW if one has SAt of the eastern Pac's low heading North watch as that;s given credit for cold to break southward when the cold heading south trend quietly began 5+ days ago INjoy
Sat down for breakfast this morning, turned on The Weather Channel and what was playing?

American Supernatural!

SMH
Quoting 39. hydrus:

This is the beginning of the bitter cold moving south..


Nope. "Bitter cold moving south" falls under the heading of "reality". What you posted is a "forecast"
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Don't see the relationship between "traders" and the supply of natural gas. A trader is only interested in the price of his contract increasing so he makes a profit. I understand that power companies have an interest in future prices to lock in a cost, but they actually take delivery of the commodity, where traders will let a contract expire worthless if they are on the wrong side.
First, the contract doesn't expire worthless. You have to pay whomever you bought the contract the difference between the contract price and the spot price. That can be a pretty painful difference, especially if you're stuck taking delivery.


Looks like southern LA is going to get hammered tomorrow.
Quoting 50. sar2401:

First, the contract doesn't expire worthless. You have to pay whomever you bought the contract the difference between the contract price and the spot price. That can be a pretty painful difference, especially if you're stuck taking dk


The last I will type on this subject

Limit Potential Losses

As natural gas options only grant the right but not the obligation to assume the underlying natural gas futures position, potential losses are limited to only the premium paid to purchase the option.
12Z ECMWF also shows a system on Jan. 3rd affecting the East Coast.


Here's the 12Z GFS for comparison.


Here's GFS expected temperatures at 12Z on Jan. 3rd.
Quoting 51. tampabaymatt:



Looks like southern LA is going to get hammered tomorrow.


The weekend totals aren't looking too appealing. I'm in the 4+ range. We'll see how accurate that is come Sunday night.



7 day just updated.
Too bad the front won't be moving just a bit faster...


Thanks Dr. Masters for all the videos. I personally would rate the Pilger tornadoes a little higher. I mean out of all the things I have seen this year, I will never forget the Pilger tornadoes being down at the same time. That was incredible.
Quoting 49. ACSeattle:


Nope. "Bitter cold moving south" falls under the heading of "reality". What you posted is a "forecast"
I believe the bitter cold air will move south into the U.S. The Euro has been fairly reliable a week out. It is winter...And if it doesnt pan , I was wrong......so sue me...
Quoting Levi32:


I could not agree more. Fortunately, the NWS often does much more with the 3-day forecast than copy model output and say "interesting."
They still miss forecasts. Besides, if the models were worthles or useless , they wouldnt spend multi millions to keep them and upgrade them. I have said here many times that older weather forecasting techniques and obsevations are better than computer models..Kinda strange coming from someone who has a website plastered with almost every long and short range weather model there is. Besides , Womans Hemlines rule over all the models..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY THREE (04U)
3:00 AM WST December 27 2014
=====================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Three (963 hPa) located at 12.6S 93.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.2S 93.2E- 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.2S 93.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 14.8S 91.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 16.7S 89.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
DTs averaging 5.5 over three hours have been obtained using an eye pattern. The trend is assessed as D+ giving a MET of 5 and the MET is unadjusted via the PAT. FT is set to 5.0.

Analyzed gale radii based on SSMIS passive winds and MTCSWA analysis.

Shear is moderate at around 10-15 knots over the last 12 hours [using CIMSS analysis]

Kate may intensify a little further during the diurnally favorable period. Increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat potential should cause the system to start weakening on 28 December and marked weakening should occur on the 29th.

Gales may persist in the southern semi-circle for a period after the system weakens below cyclone intensity during December 29.
Quoting 41. Climate175:

This is what is going to happen Sunday.


Got Winter Classic (outdoor hockey) tickets for Thursday 1/1. Hope this doesn't happen Thursday.
Only a few times in a lifetime so I surprised the son who doesn't want much, with them for Xmas.

Quoting 60. hydrus:

They still miss forecasts. Besides, if the models were worthles or useless , they wouldnt spend multi millions to keep them and upgrade them. I have said here many times that older weather forecasting techniques and obsevations are better than computer models..Kinda strange coming from someone who has a website plastered with almost every long and short range weather model there is. Besides , Womans Hemlines rule over all the models..


Hemlines predict the stock market. What predicts hemlines remains an unsolved problem.
Video #4, shot by a surveillance camera in the lobby of a hotel during a hurricane depicts graphically how stupid it would be to stay in a glass lined room during a hurricane. Every hurricane preparedness pamphlet lists this as a no-no as rule number 1 or 2.
It appears, though, that a couple of attention seeking storm chasers did just that; in that very lobby in Cabo.

I once heard an interview with a Director of the National Hurricane Center, after Katrina.
"These attention seekers, standing in dangerous conditions, are not wise. One of these days one of them is going to get decapitated. I suppose that will make some spectacular video."
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'


Healthier than stale beer and cold pizza.
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



Hemlines predict the stock market. What predicts hemlines remains an unsolved problem.
I was advised of that very thing many years ago...Couldnt forget it if I tried.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'
lol, I got the leftover smelts from the refrigerator.
Looks like they've upped the expected rainfall a bit:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN
EXTENDED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THE
THREAT WILL END WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY.

(snipped list of cities and towns)

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...
IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...
LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE AND WEST FELICIANA.
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...HANCOCK... HARRISON...
JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL AND WILKINSON.

* FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL THAT CAN BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD TWO
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS COULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER BANDS OF RAIN POSSIBLY BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES

SOMEWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* DUE TO RECENT RAINS...SOME RIVERS MAY SWELL TO FLOOD STAGE IF
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCUR. ALSO...SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS MAY RESULT IF RAINS PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
It's only a matter of time before Rock creek park starts having flooding issues like it has done several times this year.
Quoting 69. washingtonian115:

It's only a matter of time before Rock creek park starts having flooding issues like it has done several times this year.
The Ark is ready to go for more rain.
Quoting 21. Tornado6042008X:

Look at the high pressure over Montana on Tuesday. Will that be a record high air pressure if this verifies?



there have beens pressures reaching over 1070mb in other places
Quoting 21. Tornado6042008X:

Look at the high pressure over Montana on Tuesday. Will that be a record high air pressure if this verifies?


Montana record high pressure readings... and low..:)
31.40 1/9/1962 28.92 1/11/1932
Missoula 31.30 Helena 10/1962 28.95 1/22/1943
Quoting 71. MaxWeather:


there have beens pressures reaching over 1070mb in other places
Yeap. I know now. I checked earlier in the day and, in fact, some places in the world have had surface air pressures reaching over 1080mb.

Quoting 72. hydrus:

Montana record high pressure readings... and low..:)
31.40 1/9/1962 28.92 1/11/1932
Missoula 31.30 Helena 10/1962 28.95 1/22/1943
Yeap. Fascinating indeed. I still have hope that cold air will eventually come down into my region with the correct timing with a storm system for a snowstorm :^)


Christmas heat breaks records across Atlantic Canada

Moncton beat its 13.3 ºC record set in 1996 by more than two degrees. Their Christmas Day temperature reached a high of 15.6 ºC. Saint John hit 14.0 ºC, easily exceeding their previous high: 2003’s 12.8 ºC.

Shearwater beat a record that was more than 120 years old. Their previous Christmas day high came on December 25, 1886 reaching 12.2 ºC. Their new high is 14.3ºC

Halifax and Greenwood had perhaps the biggest jump: 3.5 and 3.6 degrees respectively. Greenwood was up to 18.5 ºC this year. Almost 20 ºC!
Link
Quoting 60. hydrus:

They still miss forecasts. Besides, if the models were worthles or useless , they wouldnt spend multi millions to keep them and upgrade them. I have said here many times that older weather forecasting techniques and obsevations are better than computer models..Kinda strange coming from someone who has a website plastered with almost every long and short range weather model there is. Besides , Womans Hemlines rule over all the models..


They are horrific in Alaska at predicting weather. Maybe Levi can chime in as to why or what his experience is. I have two weather sources right now - looking at North Pole AK. One says snowing and the low is above zero the other sys -27F. My guess based on experience is that both will be wrong.

I disagree with they must be worth something if they keep pouring millions into them. The reason they are pouring millions into them is to make them worth something. It is why there are many different models/modeling software out there. Everything is going for the prize. The prize is different depending on who is playing. It can be for fame and notoriety or for money.

Think of it this way, we are getting better, but still nowhere near perfect in predicting cyclogensis and strength. If we had one good model that would show us when. where and how strong a hurricane would be. It would be worth billions and there wouldn't be a need a for dozen or so we use today....

Just my .02...


The top of of the planet continues to warm ever faster in winter. , and these numbers from Canada point to ever warmer water off shore . Saint John did not set this on Christmas record because a wind from Mexico blew up. they set it because the ocean near them is still very very warm.

It’s been too warm to make snow in Anchorage –

Making snow in Anchorage? Weird weather in Alaska

Link


As a system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes


Snow drought: December record for least snow underway in Grand Rapids

The last time the first 25 days of December saw so little snow in Grand Rapids was 1946, when only five-tenths of an inch fell. The phenomenon was repeated in 1947, when only seven-tenths of an inch fell.

The record lack of snowfall is a sharp contrast to the 31 inches that fell last month, which was the snowiest November on record in Grand Rapids.


Link

As a system nears a tipping point, it moves to the extremes

There it tends to get suck , before wildly swing back to the other extreme.

During one of the extremes, a new state emerges. And the system shifts to a new state.
Quoting 77. ColoradoBob1:



The top of of the planet continues to warm ever faster in winter. , and these numbers from Canada point to ever warmer water off shore . Saint John did not set this on Christmas record because a wind from Mexico blew up. they set it because the ocean near them is still very very warm.

It’s been too warm to make snow in Anchorage –

Making snow in Anchorage? Weird weather in Alaska

Link



Ummm. I should send you a picture of my yard.... I have snow all over and I am in the Municipality of Anchorage.

It is being regarded as the warmest November/December on record though.

It flurried and sprinkled today - which stinks... GIve me snow but not rain on top of snow and then go below freezing...


Average temperature in Finland has risen by more than two degrees


According to a recent University of Eastern Finland and Finnish Meteorological Institute study, the rise in the temperature has been especially fast over the past 40 years, with the temperature rising by more than 0.2 degrees per decade. “The biggest temperature rise has coincided with November, December and January. Temperatures have also risen faster than the annual average in the spring months, i.e., March, April and May. In the summer months, however, the temperature rise has not been as significant,” says Professor Ari Laaksonen of the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Institute. As a result of the temperature rising, lakes in Finland get their ice cover later than before, and the ice cover also melts away earlier in the spring. Although the temperature rise in the actual growth season has been moderate, observations of Finnish trees beginning to blossom earlier than before have been made.

Link
Quoting 79. Dakster:



Ummm. I should send you a picture of my yard.... I have snow all over and I am in the Municipality of Anchorage.

It is being regarded as the warmest November/December on record though.

It flurried and sprinkled today - which stinks... GIve me snow but not rain on top of snow and then go below freezing...


So it's still too warm to make snow with snow guns?
Does she call you "the husband?"
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The wife says, Leftover cheesecake is not breakfast..Dear'
Quoting 81. ColoradoBob1:



So it's still too warm to make snow with snow guns?


Nope... I hope this works, I uploaded a picture by my house of the street going up the mountain. It's 33F out right now. TO my knowledge the majority of Alyeska Ski resort is open for business...

Photo:

It's 53 degrees with 71% humidity, winds generally out of the south at 5-10 mph and a pressure of 29.86 in. It was mostly sunny and a really nice day out for a change!
What car was that man driving?. Never mind it was a Toyota.My sister has had hers for 8 years and it hasn't failed her yet.
Quoting 76. Dakster:



They are horrific in Alaska at predicting weather. Maybe Levi can chime in as to why or what his experience is. I have two weather sources right now - looking at North Pole AK. One says snowing and the low is above zero the other sys -27F. My guess based on experience is that both will be wrong.

I disagree with they must be worth something if they keep pouring millions into them. The reason they are pouring millions into them is to make them worth something. It is why there are many different models/modeling software out there. Everything is going for the prize. The prize is different depending on who is playing. It can be for fame and notoriety or for money.

Think of it this way, we are getting better, but still nowhere near perfect in predicting cyclogensis and strength. If we had one good model that would show us when. where and how strong a hurricane would be. It would be worth billions and there wouldn't be a need a for dozen or so we use today....

Just my .02...
I understand your two cents. For instance , many people complain about forecasts being inaccurate. When the jet is very meridional , ask any Met how difficult it can be to get the precip and temps right with that type of pattern. Quite a few here on this blog can make a forecast anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere when the pattern is zonal. As far as the models , they are tools or aids for the trade, so to speak , not the trade itself. The millions they spend on the models better be worth something , because we Americans pay a decent part of the bill. Weather and Climate is at times unpredictable , no matter who or what is doing the forecast..Scientists and computer geeks hammer away at this stuff 24/7 , and have for decades. Theres no end in sight...If anything , it will keep growing at a faster pace.
Quoting 79. Dakster:

No place on the planet is warming faster than the top of the planet in winter. See the study I just posted from Finland.

And there are the out gassing reports from the Russian sea bed. read them and they curl your hair.

Dakster:

The largest shallow sea bed off shore on Earth is north of Siberia. It extends of shore over 100 miles in some places.

All of it is a frozen bed from the last ice age.

Everyday , we get more clues that this thing is about to melt , and out gas.

Then we're off to races. Nobody sailing the Arctic if the gas from the sea bed blows your ship up.
Quoting 86. hydrus:

I understand your two cents. For instance , many people complain about forecasts being inaccurate. When the jet is very meridional , ask any Met how difficult it can be to get the precip and temps right with that type of pattern. Quite a few here on this blog can make a forecast anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere when the pattern is zonal. As far as the models , they are tools or aids for the trade, so to speak , not the trade itself. The millions they spend on the models better be worth something , because we Americans pay a decent part of the bill. Weather and Climate is at times unpredictable , no matter who or what is doing the forecast..Scientists and computer geeks hammer away at this stuff 24/7 , and have for decades. Theres no end in sight...If anything , it will keep growing at a faster pace.


Right. We pay for the incremental advances towards a better understanding of climate on Earth. Just as hurricane models have gotten a whole lot better at track prediction. And yes the model is a tool that must be read and understood by a human being. Not something to take as gospel. RIght now, they do the hard/complex number crunching for the forecaster.

The bang for the buck happens when the changes are significant enough to make better forecasts, which save money (don't have to evacuate as many people) and more importantly saves lives. Not as many people evacuating means not as many on the roads. Also means that the RIGHT people get evacuated. Seems like at times we lose more people during the preparation and aftermath phases of a natural disaster than during the actual disaster itself. At least for Hurricanes that is true. Not sure about other disasters though.
Quoting 83. Dakster:



Nope... I hope this works, I uploaded a picture by my house of the street going up the mountain. It's 33F out right now. TO my knowledge the majority of Alyeska Ski resort is open for business...

Photo:




Many thanks ,

It's 33F out right now.
That makes oatmeal , not a ski base.
Quoting 89. ColoradoBob1:



Many thanks ,

It's 33F out right now.
That makes oatmeal , not a ski base.


I wish it would stay below 32.

Supposed to be in the low 20s later on and snowing...
Quoting 88. Dakster:



Right. We pay for the incremental advances towards a better understanding of climate on Earth. Just as hurricane models have gotten a whole lot better at track prediction. And yes the model is a tool that must be read and understood by a human being. Not something to take as gospel. RIght now, they do the hard/complex number crunching for the forecaster.

The bang for the buck happens when the changes are significant enough to make better forecasts, which save money (don't have to evacuate as many people) and more importantly saves lives. Not as many people evacuating means not as many on the roads. Also means that the RIGHT people get evacuated. Seems like at times we lose more people during the preparation and aftermath phases of a natural disaster than during the actual disaster itself. At least for Hurricanes that is true. Not sure about other disasters though.
We have improved with watches , warnings , and accuracy . I was not impressed with how evacuations or recovery efforts went with Katrina. The NHC did an excellent job with there part of the disaster.
Next 6 Hours east haven,conn
Clear with temperatures steady or falling to near 40F. Winds light and variable.


more rain coming..


cold weather
Quoting 20. hydrus:

GFS forecasts mostly neutral-positive AO over the next 7-10 days. Breadfruit tree is happy.
Quoting 90. hydrus:


Now if only that low was a tad bit further to the west.
Quoting 96. guygee:

GFS forecasts mostly neutral-positive AO over the next 7-10 days. Breadfruit tree is happy.

It is my opinion that the GFS will switch gears toward the negative...If not , then i,m wrong...:)
Quoting 98. hydrus:

It is my opinion that the GFS will switch gears toward the negative...If not , then i,m wrong...:)
This is I reacted to your Winter Forecast last winter Hydrus.
I will have the hurricane scorecard up and the winners before over this weekend
feel free to check on my blog as where the big chart will be posted

Quoting 91. Dakster:



I wish it would stay below 32.

Supposed to be in the low 20s later on and snowing...

I't's ALASKA after Christmas , and you are "wishing" for below 32F ?

Well , we're into looking glass now You know what that means , if you guys can't make snow with snow gun becaues. your ground is melting in December. Permafrost is oh so losing it's "Perma".

Your frozen ground is thawing in December.
The year isn't over yet! Year end reports should never be issued until after Dec. 31.
Good night to all. I leave the mighty WRF model....Oh , and the 2040 hour CFS for March 15 of next year. One may have to run errands , or have an appointment that day.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
646 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014

Sounding discussion...
wow! That pretty much sums it up for this sounding discussion. The
wow is in reference to how much moisture has increased in the
atmosphere over the last 12 hours. The precipitation water value has
nearly quadrupled...from less than half an inch to almost 1.5
inches. Most of this has occurred in the bottom 500mb of the
column. Typical precipitable water for this time of year is 0.75". Warming also
continues in the lower levels as well with the bottom layer up
5-10 degrees c. Southwest winds have substantially increased from
around 3kft to 20kft which will bring in even more Pacific
moisture. This is all setting up the stage for what will be a very
wet weekend.

Meffer
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 417 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014/

.Heavy rain looks to impact the region this weekend...

Short term...majority of the forecast concerns reside in the first 60
hours of the forecast. As for today it has been a cloudy and cool day.
Temperatures have struggled to get much above the Lower-Middle 60s with the
extreme northwest portions of the County Warning Area struggling to get into the 60s.

L/west trough over the western Continental U.S. Has placed the area under deep southwesterly
flow this is both greatly increasing the moisture in the middle and
upper levels along with increasing the lift over the region. At the
surface high pressure over the Piedmont/Tobacco Road region is leading
to srly flow in the ll which is helping to pump in the Gulf
moisture. Both of these will help to contribute to precipitable waters substantially
increasing...approaching 2 inches which is almost 225% of normal and
in the 99th percentile for moisture content in our area during
December.
That alone is a red flag. Beginning tonight especially
after 6z isentropic lift will increase across the region and in the
290-295k level the isentropic lift becomes quite strong across much of
sela and southwestern MS but especially over the Florida parishes during the
afternoon and evening tomorrow. Divergence aloft will also increase
tomorrow. Combine that with a weak surface boundary draped across the
region and the ingredients are beginning line up for a rather wet
scenario with heavy rain beginning tomorrow and persisting through
Sat night.

The other concern Sat and Sat night is instability. Models show ample
elevated instability and even a little surface based instability and this
will lead to scattered to num thunderstorms and rain Sat and into Sat evening. With the moisture
we are anticipating...combined with divergence aloft and decent
instability...thunderstorms and rain will be rather efficient and could drop quite a
bit of rainfall in a short time. Isolated thunderstorms and rain could begin as early as
the overnight hours tonight but we really expect them to pick up
during the day tomorrow especially after 15z.

SW flow aloft will continue through sun with very deep moisture
still in place and thus the heavy rain potential will continue which
will only exacerbate any issues that we already have. A cold front
will finally push through the region Sun night early Monday morning and
this should finally bring an end to the rain threat. Not
anticipating nearly as much in the way of thunderstorms and rain sun as instability is
greatly reduced as the soundings show a rain loaded profile with middle level
lapse rates actually super adiabatic. Moderate to heavy rain showers will
still be possible through the day sun but things should really begin
to slack off overnight sun after a strong SW moves through the flow
and across the lower MS valley during the evening hours along with the
frontal passage overnight.

After everything is said and done there is the potential for
widespread 3-5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possibly
ranging from 6 to as much as 10 inches. Dont feel completely
comfortable trying to pinpoint a location to where the heaviest rain
will occur as it only takes a small shift in things to have a 20 to
60 mile difference in placement but if I had to choose a location I
would be concerned with the Florida parishes and around the Baton
Rouge metropolitan and twrds the McComb area.


Flood Watch remains out for the region through 00z Monday and see no
reason changing it in time or location at this time. May need to
change it to a Flash Flood Watch but the initial feeling is this
would be a more prolonged event leading to more of a river issue
threat and some of the low lying/rough draining areas but if models
continue to ramp things up with most of the heavy rain Sat and Sat
night flash flooding will be a concern.

(Long-term, Marine and Aviation sections snipped for brevity)
Quoting 103. hydrus:

Good night to all. I leave the mighty WRF model....Oh , and the 2040 hour CFS for March 15 of next year. One may have to run errands , or have an appointment that day.

Night, hydrus. I laughed when I saw you chose the Ides of March. I'm wondering if that choice was intentional...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY FOUR (04U)
9:08 AM WST December 27 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Four (953 hPa) located at 12.8S 93.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.2S 93.0E- 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.8S 92.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 15.1S 91.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 17.2S 90.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Kate has maintained category 4 intensity during the past 6 hours while moving slowly west southwest away from the Cocos-Keeling Islands. Recent enhanced infrared satellite images indicate slight weakening of the cloud pattern, with a loss of definition of the eye. However, a 2347 UTC microwave image shows a small well-defined eye surrounded by an intense circle of deep convection, indicating no loss of intensity as yet.

DTs averaged 5.5 between 1230 and 2030 UTC from an eye pattern. The 2230 UTC assessment yields DT=5.0 from an embedded center pattern, with MET=4.5, FT=5.0 and CI held at 5.5.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting slow southwest movement into the central south Indian Ocean. Vertical wind shear was light at around 10-15 knots at 1800 UTC, but appears to have increased slightly by 0000 UTC. Shear is forecast to increase strongly after 48 hours as the cyclone moves further south.

Kate is forecast to weaken more rapidly after 48 hours under the influence of increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat potential. Gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient.
Quoting 101. ColoradoBob1:


I't's ALASKA after Christmas , and you are "wishing" for below 32F ?

Well , we're into looking glass now You know what that means , if you guys can't make snow with snow gun becaues. your ground is melting in December. Permafrost is oh so losing it's "Perma".

Your frozen ground is thawing in December.


We renamed it to semi-permafrost.

And if you think Mars is releasing a little methane, wait until you smell the melting semi-permafrost.

Just read a winter advisory saying that people should refrain from riding ATVs between the villages because the warm temps have caused head waters to break open on rivers and the blowing snow is covering them. up.

But hey - we just a blizzard roll through and drop an inch of the white stuff all over.
Quoting Dakster:


I wish it would stay below 32.

Supposed to be in the low 20s later on and snowing...
I am making one of my infrequent predictions. By February 15, 2015, the Dakster will be begging for the temperature to stay above zero, especially when you find your truck battery frozen...again. :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
646 PM CST Friday Dec 26 2014

Sounding discussion...
wow! That pretty much sums it up for this sounding discussion. The
wow is in reference to how much moisture has increased in the
atmosphere over the last 12 hours. The precipitation water value has
nearly quadrupled...from less than half an inch to almost 1.5
inches. Most of this has occurred in the bottom 500mb of the
column. Typical precipitable water for this time of year is 0.75". Warming also
continues in the lower levels as well with the bottom layer up
5-10 degrees c. Southwest winds have substantially increased from
around 3kft to 20kft which will bring in even more Pacific
moisture. This is all setting up the stage for what will be a very
wet weekend.
(Snipped for the important parts)

Weird that you are looking at such a substantial PW column and we are just looking at some not unusually wet weather. It will be wet for the next 5 days but not really heavy rain on any day and maybe 1.5" for the whole period. It should be spread out enough that, except for some minor overflow on the Tombigbee in the far west, this should be a perfect storm for us, and I mean that in a good way! It may get chilly toward the middle of the week as we get a piece of the dreaded polar vortex headed south but even that's just going to be enough to remind us it's still winter. Then it starts to warm up again next week at this time and we get some more rain. Went almost a whole month with virtually no rain and now we're going to see some normal winter weather. You just never know how fast these things can change. :-)


Quoting canebeard:
Video #4, shot by a surveillance camera in the lobby of a hotel during a hurricane depicts graphically how stupid it would be to stay in a glass lined room during a hurricane.



I once heard an interview with a recent Director of the National Hurricane Center, after Katrina.
"These attention seeking reporters, standing in dangerous conditions, are not wise. One of these days one of them is going to get decapitated. I suppose that will make some spectacular video."


I couldn't agree more. These guys were looking for a shot that showed what good storm chasers they were, ready to take any risk to show their panting public the fact that it gets windy during hurricanes. It get's especially bad when you're in a glass lobby changing your socks during the eye of the storm...while wearing your muscle shirt and shorts. Who would have thought there was any downside to that? The idea of being a weather star changed real quick then.

I think it was Max Mayfield that predicted storm chasers, especially the ones with no concept of how to wear protective gear, would inevitably be injured and killed. That time has clearly arrived.
Quoting 112. sar2401:



I couldn't agree more. These guys were looking for a shot that showed what good storm chasers they were, ready to take any risk to show their panting public the fact that it gets windy during hurricanes. It get's especially bad when you're in a glass lobby changing your socks during the eye of the storm...while wearing your muscle shirt and shorts. Who would have thought there was any downside to that? The idea of being a weather star changed real quick then.

I think it was Max Mayfield that predicted storm chasers, especially the ones with no concept of how to wear protective gear, would inevitably be injured and killed. That time has clearly arrived.


Unfortunately for some storm chasers, safety gets put on the backburner to an adrenaline rush. It was only by luck that it wasn't until the El Reno twister that there were no storm chaser deaths directly due to a storm. Those storm chasers also didn't wear helmets so they could have been hit in the head by flying glass. Hopefully they learned their lesson. They were very lucky not to have been more seriously injured.
Quoting 111. TropicalAnalystwx13:


What does this mean?.
Mudslide threat: Trains to Seahawks game canceled
Hey everyone!
Just wanted to wish a happy new year ahead of time in case I can't make it on the blog!
I'm heading across the pond to London for the kickoff of 2015 with the New Years Day Parade.
Link


And even after more than four years on this blog, I still have not figured out how to post videos (which is probably a good thing for the mods).

Hope you guys have a safe week, and I'll be back January 3rd!
We're headed out!
I'm very impressed by this upper-level disturbance we're having in Louisiana. They were forecasting 8 inches locally yesterday. That's more than we get in some tropical systems, but it's definitely not normally found in a purely baroclinic environment.

Trust me, I've been out in it.

Quoting 112. sar2401:



I couldn't agree more. These guys were looking for a shot that showed what good storm chasers they were, ready to take any risk to show their panting public the fact that it gets windy during hurricanes. It get's especially bad when you're in a glass lobby changing your socks during the eye of the storm...while wearing your muscle shirt and shorts. Who would have thought there was any downside to that? The idea of being a weather star changed real quick then.

I think it was Max Mayfield that predicted storm chasers, especially the ones with no concept of how to wear protective gear, would inevitably be injured and killed. That time has clearly arrived.
Chasing is fine, but you gotta be smart about it. I'm probably one of the few, but I'm not going to jump into it unprepared.
Quoting 117. KoritheMan:

I'm very impressed by this upper-level disturbance we're having in Louisiana. They were forecasting 8 inches locally yesterday. That's more than we get  in some tropical systems, but it's definitely not normally found in a purely baroclinic environment.

Trust me, I've been out in it.



Evening, Kori - NWS's latest has 3-5" widespread, w/ potential of 6-10" bands. In the Area Discussion earlier, the forecaster said if he had to choose an area for the heaviest precip/training bands, it would be the FL parishes/BTR metro area/McComb. Given that, and the first band seemed to have set itself over us, I'm taking as a bit of a bad sign. Hopefully you won't have to venture out much more in this.

Click image for large view

image credit: Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks (Add: 2008)

Quoting 119. LAbonbon:



Evening, Kori - NWS's latest has 3-5" widespread, w/ potential of 6-10" bands. In the Area Discussion earlier, the forecaster said if he had to choose an area for the heaviest precip/training bands, it would be the FL parishes/BTR metro area/McComb. Given that, and the first band seemed to have set itself over us, I'm taking as a bit of a bad sign. Hopefully you won't have to venture out much more in this.


I'm working until Monday, hun. Maybe I'll get to watch the bands of rain on my breaks, at least. :)
Quoting 114. washingtonian115:

What does this mean?.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is an index that describes the pressure difference between the Arctic region and the mid-latitudes. When the index is negative, indicating above-average heights across the Arctic and lower heights across North America, there is a higher risk for severe cold and snow across the Central/East United States; and vice-versa for when the index is positive.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 27 2014
==================================

The well marked low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu coast persists.

It may concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours. According to Dvorak classification, the intensity of the well marked low pressure is T1.0 and is centered near 6.5N 84.0E. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots gusting to 30 knots. The central pressure of the low pressure area is 1006 hPa.

Tropical Cyclone Potential
====================
24 HRS: LOW
48 HRS: MODERATE
72 HRS: MODERATE
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Click image for large view

image credit: Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks


Nice map will need redoing soon do to climate change.

Would like to see the permafrost characteristics of the part of Canada that Alaska borders too. Especially around Destruction Bay and Beaver Creek.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY FOUR (04U)
3:01 PM WST December 27 2014
=====================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Four (952 hPa) located at 12.9S 93.6E or 360 kilometers west southwest of Cocos Island and 1350 kilometers west southwest of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.4S 93.3E- 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS 14.3S 93.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 16.0S 92.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.3S 90.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Kate has become very slow moving while maintaining category 4 intensity during the past 6 hours. Recent visible satellite images indicate an irregular eye feature with a symmetric cold cloud shield and outflow in most quadrants. The 0103 UTC microwave image shows a small well-defined eye but with an incomplete ring of surrounding deep convection, suggesting a slight weakening trend.

At 0430 UTC, DT=5.0 based on eye pattern with W surround and Enhanced adj=-1.0. MET=FT=5.0, but CI held at 5.5.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting slow south southwest movement. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and MOGREPS provides a wide spread in track forecasts from west southwest to south. ECMWF is preferred due to its consistency with other global models, but with weak deep layer steering, a more southerly track similar to the UKMO forecast is possible for the next 24-36 hours. Ensemble mean tracks from both models were included in the track consensus.

Vertical wind shear may be causing a slight weakening trend, but as the cyclone is moving through the 200 hPa ridge, intensity is forecast to hold at category 3 until December 29. More rapid weakening is forecast after 48 hours under the influence of increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and lower ocean heat potential. Gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient to the south.
Good morning WU. Low "Hiltrud" kept its promises: It's snowing at my place (Mainz near Frankfurt) since earlier this morning!








Current live cam of Mainz Cathedral (Saved photo. Source for updates).

SYNOPSIS from Estofex: Valid: Sat 27 Dec 2014 06:00 to Sun 28 Dec 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Sat 27 Dec 2014 00:27, Forecaster: BEYER
A broad upper level trough is present over most parts of Europa. It includes several short wave troughs. One is moving eastward with its axis crossing the Aegean Sea and further on reaching the Black Sea at the end of the forecast period. A second through is coming from the British Isles moving southeastward, amplifying on its way and finally becoming an extensive upper level cut-off low situated over the Alpine region and Northern Italy Sunday morning.
On the forward flank of the second short wave trough strong baroclinic forcing leads to a fast intensification of a surface low that is moving from the English Channel into Belgium and Western Germany. During the night hours it will dissolve over southern parts of Germany. At the same time cyclogenesis is induced over Northern Italy by the southward moving cut-off low. With pressure rising over Northern Europe this will change the general flow pattern to an eastern/northeastern one with cold continental airmasses flooding most parts of Central and Western Europe.
The mentioned surface low will be responsible for heavy snowfall in parts of western France, Belgium and the southern half of Germany. At the same time the developing surface low over Italy will induce convective activity for parts of the Western and Central Mediterranean.


Current outlook for Mainz (situated in warm Rhine Valley): -19C (-2,2F) in a week??? Umph ...
Malaysia flooding: Najib Razak to tour inundated areas
BBC, 27 December 2014 Last updated at 08:47 GMT
Malaysia is battling some of the worst floods in decades along its east coast, which have killed at least five people.
More than 100,000 people have been forced from their homes, and Prime Minister Najib Razak has returned early from holiday in the US. ...


More heavy rain for SE Asia
BBC weather video, 26 December 2014 Last updated at 15:25
Flooding has already affected the Philippines and there's more rain on the way. BBC Weather's Ben Rich has more detail on the potential for a Tropical Storm to develop there.
Winter in S.W. Fl.
7 day for Fort Myers
unusual mass of clouds south of southern mexico epac keeps trying
what about the snooks winter forecast for florida? winter that started early then then petered out
Quoting islander101010:
what about the snooks winter forecast for florida? winter that started early then then petered out


Down here in S.W. Florida it has been really nice so far this season. Sunny and dry pretty much every day.

November - 3 days with highs in the 60s with a record low of 47 at the beginning of the month.

December - 4 days with highs in the 60s.

All other days have been in the 70s or 80s each month.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
21:00 PM JST December 27 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.9N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 8.3N 127.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY FOUR (04U)
8:34 PM WST December 27 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Four (955 hPa) located at 13.1S 93.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.7S 93.0E- 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 14.6S 92.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 16.2S 91.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 18.8S 89.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
Kate has become very slow moving while maintaining category 4 intensity during the past 6 hours. Recent VIS satellite images indicate a slight weakening trend and the eye feature is now indistinct; outflow remains good in most quadrants. The 0900 UTC SSMI microwave image shows asymetric convection on the western side of the center.

At 1030 UTC, DT=5.0 MET=FT=5.0, but CI held at 5.5.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting slow south southwest movement with a steady or slow weakening trend for the next 24 hours.

The environment remains generally favorable for the next 36 hours, after which increasing vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures are likely to cause more rapid weakening.

Wind structure is expected to become asymetric and gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient to the south.
The Sea Surface Temps have been so high in this area, no real surprise..

Flash Flood in Uruguay on Saturday, 27 December, 2014 at 03:27 (03:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Over 60 millimeters (2.3622 inch) of rain have poured over Montevideo, Uruguay's capital city, in less than half an hour, making it the worst storm registered in the last 50 years. The storm started around 3 pm and flooded streets in downtown Montevideo, pulled off trees and power lines. People had to be evacuated in surrounding areas. The Uruguayan Met Institute (Inumet) has issued a yellow alert for the whole country, as rain also fell over coastal cities.
We've had about an inch last night, and it's currently raining pretty steadily. It's going to be quite a wet weekend.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
657 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014

..sounding discussion...

Atmosphere is really starting to juice up this morning with an
almost 9000 foot saturated layer in the low-levels. Precipitable
water value has climb to just over 1.5 inches...which is double the
normal value for this late in the year. This is also over a one
inch increase compared to yesterday morning/S precipitable water. Also
impressive is that the surface temperature is over 13 degrees
celsius higher /warmer/ than this time yesterday. Temperatures in
most of the rest of the column are only a few degrees different
from yesterday morning. Not much for instability at this time with
a lifted index of +3.1 and no surface or mixed layer cape so
thunder will be limited today. A veering wind profile was found
with southeast winds near the surface. Above 5500 feet...a deep
layer of winds from the southwest was found...which will keep
pumping moisture into the central Gulf Coast. A peak wind speed of
93 knots was located at 39500 feet.

12z balloon info: no issues with the flight this morning. The
balloon burst over Delaware Soto National Forest 73 miles downrange
from the office at a height of 20.3 miles above the ground. The
flight lasted 100 minutes.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 437 am CST Sat Dec 27 2014/

Short term...

Flood Watch remains in effect for the region through 00z Monday.

Heavy rainfall potential for southeast Louisiana answer southern
Mississippi from Saturday though Sunday evening. Looks like the
bulk of the heaviest precipitation will occur between late Saturday
afternoon and early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings showing
around 2 inches of precipitable water during the Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night time frame...which is about a 2.5 Standard
deviation for late December. Southwesterly flow will continue to
draw deep moisture until the region along with a weak surface
boundary over the region. Divergence aloft will also increase
throughout the day today. With that in mind the potential for very
heavy rainfall possible and localized flooding to be expected.

In addition to area-wide widespread heavy rainfall...increased
instability and divergence aloft create the potential for scattered and
embedded thunderstorms bringing localized heavier rainfall amounts
to certain areas with most of the activity being elevated.

.Rainfall amounts and impacts from this weekends event...

Rainfall amounts expected to be in the 2 to 5 inch range with
local amounts of up to 10 inches possible
...where training of
heavier bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms take
place. Most of the heaviest rainfall is expected to fall between
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A break in the activity is
possible after daybreak Sunday through Sunday afternoon before an
approaching cold front moves into the area. Expect to see up to an
additional inch with the second round ahead of the front on Sunday
afternoon
and evening. Impacts of concern are street flooding and
the potential for faster response rivers and streams to rise above
flood stage.

(Snipped Long term, Aviation & Marine for brevity)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Sat Dec 27 2014

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 27 2014 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2014

...While snow crosses the Upper Midwest...a cold front will trigger heavy
rains along the Central Gulf Coast and some rain/snow in western Texas...

...Much colder weather is expected to drop southwards from the Northwest
and Northern Plains across much of the West and Central States by early
Tuesday....

...The upper system bringing very cold air southward will bring a
widespread area of snow across the Pacific Northwest across the
Intermountain West and Rocky Mountains in the next few days.

A cold front moving eastward across the central United States will be the
first of an increasing surge of colder weather that is expected affect an
increasing part of the nation over the next few days.

Overnight and into Sunday, a cold front will bring colder temperatures
across the West and some snow across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the
Upper Midwest. At the same time, an upper disturbance and a flood of low
level moisture will spawn significant rainfall along the central Gulf
Coast and parts of the Southeast US on Saturday and a separate batch of
heavy rain could develop again on Sunday.

A very wintry period for parts of the western and northern US is on the
near horizon as a strong weather system moves across the Pacific Northwest
on Saturday night into Sunday, bringing snow to many areas except the
immediate West Coast that spreads inland across the Intermountain West and
Rocky Mountains. Much colder air will then drive southward with the
coldest air headed for the area east of the Rockies into the Plains States
on Monday into Tuesday. Very cold air will be moving across much of the
Intermountain West on Tuesday as a large Arctic high pressure system
invades the western US from north of Alaska.

While the colder air will also move eastward across the Midwest into the
Northeast, it will do so at a slower pace than out west. While rain will
move eastward across the Southeast into the Middle Atlantic states, most
of the precipitation may stay as rain unless the colder air moves farther
south and the precipitation can move farther north. For now, winter
weather seems to be kept at bay across much of the East.

Kocin
Quoting 124. Dakster:



Nice map will need redoing soon do to climate change.

Would like to see the permafrost characteristics of the part of Canada that Alaska borders too. Especially around Destruction Bay and Beaver Creek.
Hi Dakster. The map I posted at comment 120 is from 2008. I can't place Destruction Bay. I'd guess Beaver Creek is similar to interior Alaska, e.g. Tok or Fairbanks, below Arctic Circle. Only a guess, though, as I have not located a map. Interior Alaska temperature ups and downs are, of course, more extreme than coastal areas. 90 is not unusual for Fairbanks in summer. Enjoy the snow and mild winter temps you're having!

Happy Holidays, wu bloggers around the globe.
Missouri is having their cloudiest..grayest December in 20 years. I've seen a number of complaints from some areas about the total dreary & lack of sunshine. Here were the suggesting for battling the clouds that maybe hanging over your head.

To avoid the blues, Terrell offers these tips.
Exercise. Exercise helps you maintain a healthy weight and improves your mood.

Keep routines. Go to bed at regular times. Don't nap late in the afternoon or early evening even though lack of sunlight makes it tempting.

Do things you enjoy doing. The dark days of winter are the perfect time to catch up on hobbies or start new ones.

Check with your doctor first, but consider taking a good multivitamin containing vitamin D.

Eat healthy. Watch your diet and avoid fatty and sugary food.

Take advantage of daylight hours. Take a walk outside. Sit near windows at home or in restaurants.

Consider light therapy with bulbs that mimic natural light. There are several products on the market.

Go on vacation to a sunny place or plan warm-weather activities such as gardening or summer trips.

Stay active. Plan outings. Invite people into your home for an evening of board games or cards.

Find ways to celebrate winter. Enjoy the simple things like watching and photographing wildlife or a cup of hot cocoa shared with a friend.


I'll add read my blog.. I posted an entry with the best of 2014 weather pics & memes gleamed from WU & satellites through out the last year.
If this pattern were to continue , it could be very icy and disruptive throughout January.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1216 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 30 2014 - 12Z SAT JAN 03 2015


...ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...

AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
DELIVER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE, WITH A SIZABLE CHUNK FORCED ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND EVEN AREAS ON
THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE CASCADES. THE GREATEST THERMAL ANOMALIES
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWING
THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS THE BIG SURFACE HIGH OOZES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS--ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN TEXAS BY
MID PERIOD. THOUGH NOT ARCTIC AIR, A CLOSING OF THE UPPER FLOW
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WOULD FOCUS COLD
IN THOSE REGIONS, WITH REMARKABLY LOW SNOW LEVELS IN THE TERRAIN
TO THE EAST OF LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO IF THE VORTEX SPINS UP
THERE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DRIVES THE VORTEX OFFSHORE--A MUCH
MILDER OUTCOME.

SOME OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST, REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. WHEN PART OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS OFF AND EJECTS EASTWARD DAYS 6
AND 7, THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS APT TO BE
IN WINTRY FORM--SNOW, SLEET, OR FREEZING RAIN. MUCH AND MORE NEEDS
TO SHAKE OUT IN THE GUIDANCE BEFORE DETERMINING WHERE THE SNOW AND
ICE STRIPE IS PAINTED. FOR THIS FORECAST, RELIED LARGELY ON THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES, WITH A
BLEND OF THE ECENS MEAN, NAEFS MEAN, AND GMOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS.


CISCO
This could be a significant winter weather event for parts of the S.E.next weekend.

Quoting 139. Skyepony:

I remember moving to Rolla, Missouri from sunny New Mexico in Dec. 1986. Gray sky in every direction for a couple months; it was difficult to get my bearings. No mountain ranges or major drainages nearby to help get a sense of north and south. Getting outside and hiking around in the forest, studying the plants and rocks, was the only way I survived.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

...VALID 15Z SAT DEC 27 2014 - 12Z SUN DEC 28 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N ALX 35 SSW MGM BIX 10 NNE GAO 20 SSW P92 KVBS 15 WNW BPT
JAS 20 ESE BQP 35 SSW UTA 45 WNW MSL 10 N DCU 8A0 15 N ALX.


LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE TN VALLEY

THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WAS
EXPANDED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION ACROSS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AREA FOR POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE TN VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE TO 2-2.5+
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL BE IN
A FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET--SUPPORTING THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE GFS---GFSP AND THE
1200 UTC ECMWF ARE ON THE FARTHER SOUTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE---WITH THE NAM AND HI RES ARW AND NMMB FARTHER NORTH.
THE FARTHER SOUTH AXIS WAS PREFERRED---WHICH HAS SUPPORT IN THE
REFORECAST QPF. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS IN THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY HOURS OF SUNDAY. IN AREAS OF TRAINING---VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE---WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 3-5"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
Quoting 139. Skyepony:

Missouri is having their cloudiest..grayest December in 20 years. I've seen a number of complaints from some areas about the total dreary & lack of sunshine. Here were the suggesting for battling the clouds that maybe hanging over your head.

To avoid the blues, Terrell offers these tips.
Exercise. Exercise helps you maintain a healthy weight and improves your mood.

Keep routines. Go to bed at regular times. Don't nap late in the afternoon or early evening even though lack of sunlight makes it tempting.

Do things you enjoy doing. The dark days of winter are the perfect time to catch up on hobbies or start new ones.

Check with your doctor first, but consider taking a good multivitamin containing vitamin D.

Eat healthy. Watch your diet and avoid fatty and sugary food.

Take advantage of daylight hours. Take a walk outside. Sit near windows at home or in restaurants.

Consider light therapy with bulbs that mimic natural light. There are several products on the market.

Go on vacation to a sunny place or plan warm-weather activities such as gardening or summer trips.

Stay active. Plan outings. Invite people into your home for an evening of board games or cards.

Find ways to celebrate winter. Enjoy the simple things like watching and photographing wildlife or a cup of hot cocoa shared with a friend.


I'll add read my blog.. I posted an entry with the best of 2014 weather pics & memes gleamed from WU & satellites through out the last year.
Good post Skye..It is cloudy , breezy , and very wet here. The GFS has us getting 2 and a half from the first system , and 2 to 3 from the next..Some in the form of wintry precip...Dreary is adequate.
Quoting 142. oldnewmex:


I remember moving to Rolla, Missouri from sunny New Mexico in Dec. 1986. Gray sky in every direction for a couple months; it was difficult to get my bearings. No mountain ranges or major drainages nearby to help get a sense of north and south. Getting outside and hiking around in the forest, studying the plants and rocks, was the only way I survived.


My only experience with the great outdoors of Missouri included an introduction to chiggers...this was followed by a bleach bath...which I don't think worked because my legs itched for a month afterwards.
146. k1920
When I opened video #1, The Russian Tornado, I received a message across the bottom of the screen saying "Your arrest record is on line. Click here to view it now."

I'm 94 and have never been arrsted in my life. Closest I came was when , as library board president, I was trying to build a new public library for the city and factions opposed to a library (no one needs books!) were trying to coerce me into changinging my objectives. The policeman who came to the door was a former srudent so we had a cup of coffee and he served me with the papers. (We did get the library built!)
no more snow for me....none stuck that fell yesterday in el paso....further east snowed last night and you could see some cars travelling from the east on the interstate with snow on them........going to be dry again with a decent chance of moisture new years night...and maybe...just maybe...more white stuff
I'm not sure why...But some species of Cherry blossoms are sprouting.A sign?
Quoting 145. LAbonbon:



My only experience with the great outdoors of Missouri included an introduction to chiggers...this was followed by a bleach bath...which I don't think worked because my legs itched for a month afterwards.

Oh, those chiggers. After my first experience with them, I learned to avoid dense, grassy meadows and pastures without tucking the pants into socks, and/or dusting socks and ankles with sulphur. Being a surveyor at the time, ticks were regular companions. Then there was the summer of fleas. My poor cat.

That said, I still enjoyed the Ozarks. Beautiful deciduous forests, amazing rivers just flowing out of the ground at one of the many springs, excellent canoeing, fascinating geology. Lots of good blues music to be had with a fairly short drive into St. Louis.
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

I'm not sure why...But some species of Cherry blossoms are sprouting.A sign?

Ian Livingston said that was a winter flowering cherry tree, but they don't usually bloom until mid-Jan, they are blooming early.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
CFSv2 Jan forecast has finally caught on that El Nino will not be driving the pattern o/ the U.S. Much more Nina'esk
Quoting 152. ricderr:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
CFSv2 Jan forecast has finally caught on that El Nino will not be driving the pattern o/ the U.S. Much more Nina'esk

Be funny if we had a la nina or Madoki el nino for next hurricane season after hearing it would be shut down XD.
Be funny if we had a la nina or Madoki el nino for next hurricane season after hearing it would be shut down XD


well....think about who has said that.....it hasn't come from any experts...not that they're long range forecasts are any better
#snowklahoma #snoklahoma 2 days late. LOL

My prediction for 2015: Science will figure out a better way to measure Mother Nature's children, the Ninas and Ninos.

#snowlahoma #snoklahoma 3 days late. LOL

My prediction for 2015: Science will figure out a better way to measure its Ninas and Ninos



i read somewhere that they were doing better 20 years ago than as of late
where is winter in the northeast
And TWC is still saying 20% chance of rain....
Quoting 139. Skyepony:

Missouri is having their cloudiest..grayest December in 20 years. I've seen a number of complaints from some areas about the total dreary & lack of sunshine. Here were the suggesting for battling the clouds that maybe hanging over your head.

To avoid the blues, Terrell offers these tips.
Exercise. Exercise helps you maintain a healthy weight and improves your mood.

Keep routines. Go to bed at regular times. Don't nap late in the afternoon or early evening even though lack of sunlight makes it tempting.

Do things you enjoy doing. The dark days of winter are the perfect time to catch up on hobbies or start new ones.

Check with your doctor first, but consider taking a good multivitamin containing vitamin D.

Eat healthy. Watch your diet and avoid fatty and sugary food.

Take advantage of daylight hours. Take a walk outside. Sit near windows at home or in restaurants.

Consider light therapy with bulbs that mimic natural light. There are several products on the market.

Go on vacation to a sunny place or plan warm-weather activities such as gardening or summer trips.

Stay active. Plan outings. Invite people into your home for an evening of board games or cards.

Find ways to celebrate winter. Enjoy the simple things like watching and photographing wildlife or a cup of hot cocoa shared with a friend.


I'll add read my blog.. I posted an entry with the best of 2014 weather pics & memes gleamed from WU & satellites through out the last year.


Much of the Midwest has been in the dreary category all of December with long periods of days with out sunshine .. think it was 14 straight here around Peoria .. with only a couple hours of sun in that time .. and with it getting dark early in the evening no time to see the sun !!

The past 2 days with the bright sunshine and warmer temperatures have helped but are not enough !!
Quoting 151. Climate175:

Ian Livingston said that was a winter flowering cherry tree, but they don't usually bloom until mid-Jan, they are blooming early.

We always reckon almonds blossom first but I havent seen any yet.
Normally about the end of January.

I have noted that some of the fig trees which always loose all their leaves by Christmas still have leaves on them. This is the first year I have notieced this.

Vast numbers of our palm trees are dying due what the press says is an invasive bettle eating the inside of them.
Also a huge amount of the "Chumbas," or prickly pears as you may know them are turning white or light yellow and dying from some other invasive problem.

I supose its all a sign of the times!
Quoting 161. PlazaRed:


We always reckon almonds blossom first but I havent seen any yet.
Normally about the end of January.

I have noted that some of the fig trees which always loose all their leaves by Christmas still have leaves on them. This is the first year I have notieced this.

Vast numbers of our palm trees are dying due what the press says is an invasive bettle eating the inside of them.
Also a huge amount of the "Chumbas," or prickly pears as you may know them are turning white or light yellow and dying from some other invasive problem.

I supose its all a sign of the times!


Most figs in the DC area were killed to the ground by the 2013-2014 winter. Figs sprout back from the roots so they did come back but most years the tops survive and they grow to be small shrubby trees.
Quoting 149. washingtonian115:

I'm not sure why...But some species of Cherry blossoms are sprouting.A sign?



Surprised they got their chilling requirement. I've seen plums bloom in early January (2012). But not cherries.
Quoting 124. Dakster:



Nice map will need redoing soon do to climate change.

Would like to see the permafrost characteristics of the part of Canada that Alaska borders too. Especially around Destruction Bay and Beaver Creek.


A surprise. I thought Fairbanks had continuous permafrost.
Quoting 164. georgevandenberghe:



Surprised they got their chilling requirement. I've seen plums bloom in early January (2012). But not cherries.

We have these saucer magnolias that sometime flower in January if it's been too warm; this happened two winters ago.

FL Panhandle is technically a temperate climate, but a warmer one at that, such that more northern deciduous trees sometimes get confused.

If the warmer weather we're having keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if the saucers do it again this year.
Some signs emerging in the upper wind pattern over the Pacific that look like precursors of a true "Pineapple Connection". Retrograde flow bringing cold air from the continent, heavy rains for Hawaii, and a strengthening southern jet, eventually undercutting a ridge over the West Coast. We shall see. Meanwhile, the unusually mild coastal SSTs remain entrenched.
looks like a taste for most of us this coming week



Quoting 112. sar2401:



I couldn't agree more. These guys were looking for a shot that showed what good storm chasers they were, ready to take any risk to show their panting public the fact that it gets windy during hurricanes. It get's especially bad when you're in a glass lobby changing your socks during the eye of the storm...while wearing your muscle shirt and shorts. Who would have thought there was any downside to that? The idea of being a weather star changed real quick then.

I think it was Max Mayfield that predicted storm chasers, especially the ones with no concept of how to wear protective gear, would inevitably be injured and killed. That time has clearly arrived.


One of the NHC directors, either Neil Frank or Max Mayfield also complained about weather reporters putting themselves in excessive danger to get better footage. I think the quote was "some day we're going to lose some of them"

As far as I'm concerned unless I'm stuck there because of responsibilities, I would bail if severe weather approaches.
Quoting 161. PlazaRed:


We always reckon almonds blossom first but I havent seen any yet.
Normally about the end of January.

I have noted that some of the fig trees which always loose all their leaves by Christmas still have leaves on them. This is the first year I have notieced this.

Vast numbers of our palm trees are dying due what the press says is an invasive bettle eating the inside of them.
Also a huge amount of the "Chumbas," or prickly pears as you may know them are turning white or light yellow and dying from some other invasive problem.

I supose its all a sign of the times!

Possibly except for a tropical epiphyte, all cactus species were found only in the Americas prior to the arrival of Europeans. So prickly pear is an invasive exotic in the Mediterranean region as well as other areas
Quoting 166. opal92nwf:


We have these saucer magnolias that sometime flower in January if it's been too warm; this happened two winters ago.

FL Panhandle is technically a temperate climate, but a warmer one at that, such that more northern deciduous trees sometimes get confused.

If the warmer weather we're having keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if the saucers do it again this year.


These are sometime in March in the DC area. Some years, the very last days of Feb.
They freeze in the mid 20s and are ruined by frost about half the years. This also happens with winter blooming camellias here.
Quoting 171. georgevandenberghe:



These are sometime in March in the DC area. Some years, the very last days of Feb.
They freeze in the mid 20s and are ruined by frost about half the years. This also happens with winter blooming camellias here.

Yep, they're vigorous trees and vigorous bloomers. I noticed them in Illinois as well where they were among the first spring blooms.
Quoting 160. whitewabit:



Much of the Midwest has been in the dreary category all of December with long periods of days with out sunshine .. think it was 14 straight here around Peoria .. with only a couple hours of sun in that time .. and with it getting dark early in the evening no time to see the sun !!

The past 2 days with the bright sunshine and warmer temperatures have helped but are not enough !!


DC area has also been unusually cloudy this December. But cloudy and chilly are the easiest conditions for winter gardening here. Deepfreeze cold creates obvious problems but the combination of cold clear nights in the low 20s followed by days well up in the 50s makes a lot of work because I have to put frost covers on at night and can't just leave them on during the day because it gets too warm and the plants need light. If it stays in the 30s during the day I can just leave the covers on. I prefer thick light blocking covers to avoid excessive day warming.
One of the NHC directors, either Neil Frank or Max Mayfield also complained about weather reporters putting themselves in excessive danger to get better footage. I think the quote was "some day we're going to lose some of them"


i've found very few chasers that are there to advance the science.....therefore....just like a rodeo as i root for the bull over the rider...i root for the storm over the chaser
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:27 AM PST on December 27, 2014
Clear
56 °F
Clear
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 7 °F

Wind: 17 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 23 mph
Pressure: 30.35 in (Rising)
Chilly and Dry here today
Quoting k1920:
When I opened video #1, The Russian Tornado, I received a message across the bottom of the screen saying "Your arrest record is on line. Click here to view it now."

I'm 94 and have never been arrsted in my life. Closest I came was when , as library board president, I was trying to build a new public library for the city and factions opposed to a library (no one needs books!) were trying to coerce me into changinging my objectives. The policeman who came to the door was a former srudent so we had a cup of coffee and he served me with the papers. (We did get the library built!)
It's just an ad. It has no idea if you have an arrest record. The whole idea is to get you to click on the ad and get you to spent some money. Just ignore it.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


DC area has also been unusually cloudy this December. But cloudy and chilly are the easiest conditions for winter gardening here. Deepfreeze cold creates obvious problems but the combination of cold clear nights in the low 20s followed by days well up in the 50s makes a lot of work because I have to put frost covers on at night and can't just leave them on during the day because it gets too warm and the plants need light. If it stays in the 30s during the day I can just leave the covers on. I prefer thick light blocking covers to avoid excessive day warming.
Shoot, it was always cloudy and dreary during the winter in Cleveland. It was a shock to wake up to a sunny day any time. Cleveland was number two for cloudy days after Buffalo and it's tied with Rochester NY. 84 cloudy winter days and 93% of all daylight winter hours are overcast. On top of that, it's the eighth coldest city in the Lower 48. This was true every winter, winter in and winter out. As much as I feel badly that Peoria is having an unusually dreary winter, imagine that it's like the every single winter. Yuck!
Quoting ricderr:
looks like a taste for most of us this coming week



It sure is a sharp cutoff between flash flooding and maybe half an inch. Looking at the current radar, it looks like the heavy rain in going to make it to SE Alabama, even though the flash flood watch ends over by Mobile. I haven't had a chance to look at the synoptics yet, but the whole thing looks kind of odd.
Hi Ped. in the mid 20s here. Snowed yesterday and last night (again). But it keeps popping up above freezing just enough to make things icy. I See you are having a high humidity issue again.

Quoting PedleyCA:
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:27 AM PST on December 27, 2014
Clear
56 °F
Clear
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 7 °F

Wind: 17 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 23 mph
Pressure: 30.35 in (Rising)
Chilly and Dry here today
Quoting 173. georgevandenberghe:



DC area has also been unusually cloudy this December. But cloudy and chilly are the easiest conditions for winter gardening here. Deepfreeze cold creates obvious problems but the combination of cold clear nights in the low 20s followed by days well up in the 50s makes a lot of work because I have to put frost covers on at night and can't just leave them on during the day because it gets too warm and the plants need light. If it stays in the 30s during the day I can just leave the covers on. I prefer thick light blocking covers to avoid excessive day warming.
Shucks. I knew I couldn't have been the only one to notice all of the cloud cover here this month. But right now it is WARM. 58F at KIAD.
The short term models show some sort of snow event for the D.C area in about 3 days.I'm still skeptical but people ran out and took advantage o the sunshine and mild temps yesterday after what seemed like forever with rain in the picture.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The short term models show some sort of snow event for the D.C area in about 3 days.I'm still skeptical but people ran out and took advantage o the sunshine and mild temps yesterday after what seemed like forever with rain in the picture.


There were people snowmachining down the streets here. Taking advantage of the streets not having been plowed yet ad fresh snowfall yesterday. If it wasn't a public street, I'd love to sled down the road I live on.
Quoting 152. ricderr:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
CFSv2 Jan forecast has finally caught on that El Nino will not be driving the pattern o/ the U.S. Much more Nina'esk



Did he had graphics to add with that post?
Did he had graphics to add with that post?


he did he did,......i was just too lazy to grab them and add them to my post
186. vis0

Quoting 156. Barefootontherocks:

#snowlahoma #snoklahoma 2 days late. LOL

My prediction for 2015: Science will figure out a better way to measure Mother Nature's children, the Ninas and Ninos.
They'll have a measuring stick in K of feet tall and if Either kid is not tall enough they can't play in the pacific.
187. txjac
Having a very enjoyable day off from work. Temp is about 49F (and dropping) and its drizzling outside, beautiful stay at home weather. I have all my housework done (well, at least what I'm gonna do for now) have just put together chicken and dumplings in my newfangled crock pot that my son got for me for Christmas (I blew mine up on Thanksgiving) Love this kind of weather
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


One of the NHC directors, either Neil Frank or Max Mayfield also complained about weather reporters putting themselves in excessive danger to get better footage. I think the quote was "some day we're going to lose some of them"

As far as I'm concerned unless I'm stuck there because of responsibilities, I would bail if severe weather approaches.

I agree with other posters that the iCyclone video is wreckless. I don't care if every chaser is out there for the science--not every group is the next Twistex group. However, did they not believe staying in a shabby hotel in the strongest portion of an upper-end Category 3 hurricane's eyewall would be dangerous? And here I thought they were smarter than that.

A very similar situation is ongoing with regards to tornadoes. Chasers are getting way too close for footage rather than keeping their safety in mind. After what unfortunately happened with the Twistex team on May 31, 2013, I thought that some people would've learned their lessons, but that was just a pipe dream..
189. vis0

Quoting 159. opal92nwf:

And TWC is still saying 20% chance of rain....

   remember (like anyone is bothering to) ml-d ends 2-day (36-48 reset, see cmmnt #15 on this blogbyte, ) reset soon therefore compu'r models yesterday / this morning read moisture but no mixing motion, now mixing motion will blow up keep senses on alert.
Bad conditions continueing in Northern Europe with 100 MPH winds and blizzards raging along.
Ferries canceled, in the English channel.
Storm moving on into Germany, Poland etc.
Heavy snow and high winds forecast for northern Spain.
Cool and about 13/C here in the south of Spain.
Doubtless Barb will have something to say about all this affecting her at some point.
191. txjac
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree with other posters that the iCyclone video is wreckless. I don't care if every chaser is out there for the science--not every group is the next Twistex group. However, did they not believe staying in a shabby hotel in the strongest portion of an upper-end Category 3 hurricane's eyewall would be dangerous? And here I thought they were smarter than that.

A very similar situation is ongoing with regards to tornadoes. Chasers are getting way too close for footage rather than keeping their safety in mind. After what unfortunately happened with the Twistex team on May 31, 2013, I thought that some people would've learned their lessons, but that was just a pipe dream..


Although I too think the risks being taken are crazy ...there is a part of me that thinks that some people are just "built" differently ...that they have to have that thrill. I would hope that the risk taking would help scientists/mets though with maybe some of the video or info they gather
192. beell
Quoting 182. washingtonian115:

The short term models show some sort of snow event for the D.C area in about 3 days.I'm still skeptical but people ran out and took advantage o the sunshine and mild temps yesterday after what seemed like forever with rain in the picture.


Remain skeptical, wash. You're right on the edge of a powerful 1-2" dusting. SW flow from the southern jet-and as the two jets come together right over your head, dry, confluent westerly flow ends what little moisture is available.
Quoting 192. beell:



Remain skeptical, wash. You're right on the edge of a powerful 1-2" dusting. SW flow from the southern jet-and as the two jets come together right over your head, dry, confluent westerly flow ends what little moisture is available.
Since it's been really mild the ground is warm.So that's not going to help either unless the temperatures drop rapidly and the precipitation does as well which I don't see happening.Maybe some wet flurries.
Okay. This is obviously a glitch because KIAD is now reporting 46F with 100% humidity with cloudy skies. I live 1-2 miles from KIAD and it is sunny with a few thin high clouds and very mild. Feels like around 60F or so.
hahaha, now it's saying 0% chance of rain for today down from 20% earlier.
Quoting 179. Dakster:

Hi Ped. in the mid 20s here. Snowed yesterday and last night (again). But it keeps popping up above freezing just enough to make things icy. I See you are having a high humidity issue again.



Not having a high anything issue today.
Too cold outside and it is stuck there, 59.5F here.
Quoting PedleyCA:

Not having a high anything issue today.
Too cold outside and it is stuck there, 59.5F here.


It was kind of a joke... We are not either. It is cold out, but not cold for here.
I know a lot of agencies are calling for another cold and snowy winter for the east but I don't see it this year.As I said earlier it looks like the storm track is setting up west of the Appalachian and the cold air is instead pouring down more out west then here on the east coast.Unless something breaks here I do not see a end to this pattern.People keep forecasting this "change" that always seems to be 10 days away.May I remind you all of the 2013 hurricane season?.There was always some "change to the pattern" being brought up that would happen in 7-10 days that never happened.A repeat of the 97-1998 winter here for the big cities is not out of the question.
Yea, 18z NAM is developing a snow event, we shall wait and see.
Quoting opal92nwf:
hahaha, now it's saying 0% chance of rain for today down from 20% earlier.
There seems to be something wrong with the forecasts in the Panhandle and SE Alabama. All the rain was supposed to be in western and northern AL. Instead, there's very little rain in the west and none in the north. The west and north is where the "flash flood watches" are supposed to cover. Instead, the SE section is up to 0.40" with a rain rate of 0.50". All the rain is in southern MS and AL yet the FFW hasn't been extended here or to the Panhandle. Either there's not really going to be as much rain as originally forecast or the Boys from several WFO's are going to be scrambling update these watches.
What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?
Quoting beell:


Remain skeptical, wash. You're right on the edge of a powerful 1-2" dusting. SW flow from the southern jet-and as the two jets come together right over your head, dry, confluent westerly flow ends what little moisture is available.
Nothing worse than than those powerful dustings. This is the kind of thing that ends up in those heartbreaking YouTube videos...
Quoting 202. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?
To me personally, it looks like the El-Nino chances basically collapsed.
The weather was beautiful for this last Saturday of the year, the red-pink sunset glow phenomenal! :)
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?
This is what's been talked about for more than a year. So far, no one has gotten this right. There's no reason to think anyone will get this right. Until the agencies that are suppose to know about such things declare there is or isn't an El Nino, worry about something important, like finding a really good fruitcake. :-)
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?


JMO, 30% of an El Nino, 10% of a La Nina, 60% Neutral.
Quoting 199. washingtonian115:

I know a lot of agencies are calling for another cold and snowy winter for the east but I don't see it this year.As I said earlier it looks like the storm track is setting up west of the Appalachian and the cold air is instead pouring down more out west then here on the east coast.Unless something breaks here I do not see a end to this pattern.People keep forecasting this "change" that always seems to be 10 days away.May I remind you all of the 2013 hurricane season?.There was always some "change to the pattern" being brought up that would happen in 7-10 days that never happened.A repeat of the 97-1998 winter here for the big cities is not out of the question.
If the Appalachian Mountain Storm Track continues then the ground will become very saturated and sinkholes will become a bigger problem for the region because the ground will not be able to take in all that water and will let loose.
The 18z GFS parallel shows widespread temperature departures of 25-35F below average overspreading a good chunk of the Northwest and North Plains as a 1055mb+ high slides down from Canada. The GFS forecasts temperature departures to approach 55-60F below average in the higher elevations of Montana.

This arctic air, albeit forecast to moderate as it usually does, is expected to spread southeastward over the upcoming days, leaving much of the nation below average by 2015.

More analogs would be with 1997-1998:
1972-1973
1980-1981
1991-1992
2001-2002
2011-2012
2012-2013
Quoting 202. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?


Throw a dart to a board and you've got as good of a guess as anyone else's. One min it looks like El-Nino, the next it looks like it's gone.
Quoting 105. LAbonbon:


Night, hydrus. I laughed when I saw you chose the Ides of March. I'm wondering if that choice was intentional...
No...:)
New Year Baby getting ready!
wxrisk

As it mentioned earlier in a BLOG post... After the potential events of DEC 29-30 and JAN 2 ... EITHER of which could range from light to moderate to significant winter weather... the MJO impulse moves into phase 4 .5..6. This shows up on all of the MJO forecast models and the climo history of Phase 4 5 6 in JAN is one which features above normal temperatures east the Mississippi River. So assuming that this is correct ...as I stated in the blog ...the middle or second half of January could be fairly mild.

So much for cold January being forecast huh?.
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:

wxrisk

As it mentioned earlier in a BLOG post... After the potential events of DEC 29-30 and JAN 2 ... EITHER of which could range from light to moderate to significant winter weather... the MJO impulse moves into phase 4 .5..6. This shows up on all of the MJO forecast models and the climo history of Phase 4 5 6 in JAN is one which features above normal temperatures east the Mississippi River. So assuming that this is correct ...as I stated in the blog ...the middle or second half of January could be fairly mild.

So much for cold January being forecast huh?.
If the pattern does not change, the weather outlets are in for a huge spanking, I in my mind won't be disappointed since last winter already gave and I saw natural signs that pointed to a mild winter along with a cold winter, so i basically expected any outcome, a jamming winter or a warm winter.
What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?


the cpc has placed the chnces of el nino around 65 percent....here's what the aussies said last tuesday

Near El Niño conditions persist in tropical Pacific Ocean
Issued on 23 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño thresholds, with rainfall patterns around the Pacific Ocean basin, and at times further afield, displaying El Niño-like patterns over recent months.
Indicators remain broadly consistent with borderline El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures have exceeded thresholds for a number of weeks, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been negative for the past few months. Trade winds have been near-average along the equator, but weaker in the broader tropical belt. Together, these indicate some weak coupling of the atmosphere and ocean may be occuring.
Climate models expect little change over the next two to three months, with most predicting a persistence of the current warm sea surface temperatures. If current conditions do persist or strengthen into next year, 2014–15 is likely to be considered a weak El Niño. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at ALERT.
Regardless of El Niño status, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means drier and warmer than average weather is likely in many areas.
Quoting 214. washingtonian115:

wxrisk

As it mentioned earlier in a BLOG post... After the potential events of DEC 29-30 and JAN 2 ... EITHER of which could range from light to moderate to significant winter weather... the MJO impulse moves into phase 4 .5..6. This shows up on all of the MJO forecast models and the climo history of Phase 4 5 6 in JAN is one which features above normal temperatures east the Mississippi River. So assuming that this is correct ...as I stated in the blog ...the middle or second half of January could be fairly mild.

So much for cold January being forecast huh?.


The long-range "indicators" long grim for cold AND snow. Its seems we will oscillate between warm ups and dramatic cool downs here in the east. Models have tried to forecast snow in the east for weeks but nothing close has come to fruition.
Back to cold and cloudy weather. :(
Quoting 217. Drakoen:



The long-range "indicators" long grim for cold AND snow. Its seems we will oscillate between warms up and dramatic cool downs here in the east. Models have tried to forecast snow in the east for weeks but nothing close has come to fruition.
Looks like it has flip the scrip per say.A ridge in the east and a trough in the west.Something that no one saw happening when the forecast came out.Now it's wait until late January to start seeing winter weather.But with the way this pattern has been and the "look at this occuring 7-10 days out" never happening it's hard to really get excited.
Quoting 216. ricderr:

What are the el nino chances for development in 2015 or will there be la nino/neutral conditions?How will it impact the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season? What are your predictions?


the cpc has placed the chnces of el nino around 65 percent....here's what the aussies said last tuesday

Near El Niño conditions persist in tropical Pacific Ocean
Issued on 23 December 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The tropical Pacific Ocean continues to border on El Niño thresholds, with rainfall patterns around the Pacific Ocean basin, and at times further afield, displaying El Niño-like patterns over recent months.
Indicators remain broadly consistent with borderline El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures have exceeded thresholds for a number of weeks, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has generally been negative for the past few months. Trade winds have been near-average along the equator, but weaker in the broader tropical belt. Together, these indicate some weak coupling of the atmosphere and ocean may be occuring.
Climate models expect little change over the next two to three months, with most predicting a persistence of the current warm sea surface temperatures. If current conditions do persist or strengthen into next year, 2014–15 is likely to be considered a weak El Niño. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker status remains at ALERT.
Regardless of El Niño status, El Niño-like impacts are likely to continue, as shown by recent seasonal outlooks. For Australia, this means drier and warmer than average weather is likely in many areas.


I guess CPC will lower the % on the January 8 diagnostic update based on latest trends.
Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

Looks like it has flip the scrip per say.A ridge in the east and a trough in the west.Something that no one saw happening when the forecast came out.Now it's wait until late January to start seeing winter weather.But with the way this pattern has been and the "look at this occuring 7-10 days out" never happening it's hard to really get excited.


We've been in a progressive, transient pattern. No really consistent blocking.
Quoting 129. Sfloridacat5:

Winter in S.W. Fl.
7 day for Fort Myers



Wow...and this is December? Here in C FL it's upper 70s and lows in the 50s. I went outside today and it felt like it was March or April.

Happy New Year, everyone! Hope y'all had a good Christmas. :)
Nice documentary on the 2004 season.

View on YouTube
Quoting 219. washingtonian115:

Looks like it has flip the scrip per say.A ridge in the east and a trough in the west.Something that no one saw happening when the forecast came out.Now it's wait until late January to start seeing winter weather.But with the way this pattern has been and the "look at this occuring 7-10 days out" never happening it's hard to really get excited.

Hey, I've been telling you all winter's gonna be mild :P

We'll get this cold start to January, but the month may still finish above normal because of how warm the mid-latter part of the month will be. Screaming Pacific jet, uncooperative MJO, teleconnections turning towards warm phases. All the pieces falling in place for a warm, uneventful winter, at least for this coming month. Maybe February turns colder/stormier but that's just based on the thought that the warm pattern couldn't possibly last the whole winter. It still may.
Quoting 224. MAweatherboy1:


Hey, I've been telling you all winter's gonna be mild :P

We'll get this cold start to January, but the month may still finish above normal because of how warm the mid-latter part of the month will be. Screaming Pacific jet, uncooperative MJO, teleconnections turning towards warm phases. All the pieces falling in place for a warm, uneventful winter, at least for this coming month. Maybe February turns colder/stormier but that's just based on the thought that the warm pattern couldn't possibly last the whole winter. It still may.
Two back to back snowy winters here in D.C are rare and that alone still left me feeling a bit uneasy when the forecast were going out.Something threw a screw in the forecast.
Quoting 225. washingtonian115:

Two back to back snowy winters here in D.C are rare and that alone still left me feeling a bit uneasy when the forecast were going out.Something threw a screw in the forecast.

It's the same thing up here, Boston has had back to back snowier than average winters, and it's very rare to string three in a row together. There's certainly an element of luck in regards to snow; it's a game of atmospheric inches, and when you get a couple winters where things fall one way, they're probably going to fall the other way next time. That's not quite scientific, but I think probability and statistics are perfectly valid tools for seasonal forecasts.
Not until I actually see snow falling from the sky!.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:

Not until I actually see snow falling from the sky!.

Preach it! I am hearing reports of 2-6 inches potentially but we shall see.
The Arctic Oscillation (see #122 for a summary of what that is) has been predominantly positive during the month of December; a stark contrast to the significantly negative values we observed in November. In the late 1990s, Dr. Judah Cohen for Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) uncovered a relationship between Siberian snow extent during the month of October and the predominant AO phase during the December-January-February period, something that has only recently been incorporated into forecasts. I've mentioned this before, but I'll re-explain for those who may not have seen it: during years with high snow cover across Siberia, the existing snowpack acts to cool the surface temperatures. When this occurs, high pressure forms across the region, acting to increase the amount of heat energy being transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere. This ultimately acts to weaken the polar vortex and raise heights across the Arctic, promoting lower heights farther south. Now, the snow cover across Siberia during October 2014 was the second highest on record behind 1976, a brutally cold winter for the East USA. Whether or not this acts to force a -AO as we progress deeper in the winter remains to be seen (persistent warming in the stratosphere is a good sign; if a true stratospheric warming event occurs soon, that will definitely increase our odds), but the correlation going back to the late 1990s is significant (r=0.810).



As Allan Hufman has posted on Twitter, it appears that this winter will be back-loaded, with the majority of the cold and snow threats coming from late January to mid March (ala 2012-13).

Time will tell.
Quoting 227. washingtonian115:

Not until I actually see snow falling from the sky!.



The short-range hi-res models seems to be seeing something (perhaps at the mesoscale level) that the global models are not. As always any solution is possible, and like this winter has been, we won't know until the day of the event.
Hey guys me and my girlfriend are on vacation in Lebanon PA and we really want some snow. We leave January 5th at night. What are our chances of getting some decent snow we have been keeping our fingers crossed.
Quoting 230. Drakoen:



The short-range hi-res models seems to be seeing something (perhaps at the mesoscale level) that the global models are not. As always any solution is possible, and like this winter has been, we won't know until the day of the event.
The GEM solution would be nice and right, since it would put us in some moderate snow for a few hours.
GEOS-5 has the freeze line pretty close, maybe a hair north there. Showing a good snow dumping for some..

Quoting 231. tampahurricane:

Hey guys me and my girlfriend are on vacation in Lebanon PA and we really want some snow. We leave January 5th at night. What are our chances of getting some decent snow we have been keeping our fingers crossed.

I think your chances are pretty good..Have fun!
More eye candy, DBZ of 32-36 would be heavy snow in DC Tuesday morning. One can dream.

Quoting 235. Drakoen:

More eye candy, DBZ of 32-36 would be heavy snow in DC Tuesday morning. One can dream.


Oh yes one can (*.*).
Quoting 235. Drakoen:

More eye candy, DBZ of 32-36 would be heavy snow in DC Tuesday morning. One can dream.


Yum! :O, You are making the jamming meter rise!
Quoting 237. Climate175:

Yum! :O, You are making the jamming meter rise!


I sound like Scott now ;)
Quoting 198. Dakster:



It was kind of a joke... We are not either. It is cold out, but not cold for here.

Yeh, I got the joke. I have been sick for the last few days here.
Missed out on the Christmas party this year. Was eating some of
the leftovers they brought back Prime Rib and Stuffed Shells, Didn't
even taste that good. At least I don't have the Flu, just a really bad chest cold.
High Today was 60.8 and very windy.
00z NAM is coming out soon.
CWG will likely raise the snow index.
242. txjac
Quoting 239. PedleyCA:


Yeh, I got the joke. I have been sick for the last few days here.
Missed out on the Christmas party this year. Was eating some of
the leftovers they brought back Prime Rib and Stuffed Shells, Didn't
even taste that good. At least I don't have the Flu, just a really bad chest cold.
High Today was 60.8 and very windy.


Sorry to hear you were sick over Christmas. Bummer, prime rib is the best as it comes out of the oven. Somehow, once it gets reheated, it just loses something. Get better soon
Quoting 239. PedleyCA:


Yeh, I got the joke. I have been sick for the last few days here.
Missed out on the Christmas party this year. Was eating some of
the leftovers they brought back Prime Rib and Stuffed Shells, Didn't
even taste that good. At least I don't have the Flu, just a really bad chest cold.
High Today was 60.8 and very windy.
I had left over turkey and ham.
238. Drakoen
We're all desperate here.
Once the Jamming meter done crack we will have a jubilee!
Some trees are already in bloom here in Orlando



Quoting opal92nwf:
Nice documentary on the 2004 season.

View on YouTube
The Police: "Do you guys have a pass?"

The Doppler Guys: "Uh...well...not exactly..."

Poor planning takes it evil toll.
Quoting PedleyCA:

Yeh, I got the joke. I have been sick for the last few days here.
Missed out on the Christmas party this year. Was eating some of
the leftovers they brought back Prime Rib and Stuffed Shells, Didn't
even taste that good. At least I don't have the Flu, just a really bad chest cold.
High Today was 60.8 and very windy.
Sorry to hear that, Ped. We must have had the same kind of virus. Constantly short of breath, coughing like crazy, and nothing tasted good. I finally had oatmeal today and that went down (and stayed down) OK, thank goodness.
Quoting 242. txjac:



Sorry to hear you were sick over Christmas. Bummer, prime rib is the best as it comes out of the oven. Somehow, once it gets reheated, it just loses something. Get better soon

The Prime Rib is my favorite. It is just so very good and isn't nearly as good reheated.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

Sorry to hear that, Ped. We must have had the same kind of virus. Constantly short of breath, coughing like crazy, and nothing tasted good. I finally had oatmeal today and that went down (and stayed down) OK, thank goodness.

Not having any issues except a cough and cold, but I have COPD
so that just makes that so much better... Been having to take my ex for
appt's and such and going into a hospital can get you sick really fast.
Winter Storm Frona will be a long-lasting winter storm that will bring heavy snow to the Pacific Northwest and Southwest through early next week. Some of the same areas that were hit by Winter Storm Eris will see snow again as Arctic air spills southward through the West this weekend.
WPAC is the basin that has tropical cyclone activity all year long and right now a new TC is born and poised to be a TS and affect land areas.

This Arctic air, associated with a very strong area of high pressure from Canada, will supply the necessary cold air for snow and the upper-level pattern will provide the lift necessary to squeeze out moderate to heavy snowfall over a large area. Winter Storm Frona (froh-na; Greek, short for Sofronia; related to the word for wise) could impact the Southern Plains and Midwest later next week.
A shortwave trough diving south across the West this week is forecast to pinch off into a cut-off low, setting the stage for snow across the Southwest.



48-Hour Snowfall Forecast update at 9pm on december 27 2014 lots of snow in the northwest
00z NAM still on board.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE CATEGORY THREE (04U)
8:55 AM WST December 28 2014
=====================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category Three (964 hPa) located at 13.1S 92.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==============
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.7S 92.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 14.7S 92.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 17.0S 90.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 19.4S 87.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
==================
Kate has continued to move slowly towards the west southwest during the past 6 hours. Recent infrared satellite images show an embedded center pattern with a weakening trend. The eye feature is no longer discernible; outflow remains good in most quadrants. An excellent fix from SSMI image at 2109Z caused a slight relocation to the north.

At 2230 UTC, DT=5.0 MET=4.5, FT=4.5, CI lowered to 5.0.

Model guidance is consistent in forecasting slow south southwest movement with a steady or slow weakening trend for the next 24 hours.

The environment remains generally favorable for the next 36 hours, after which increasing vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures are likely to cause more rapid weakening.

Wind structure is expected to become asymetric and gales are forecast to extend further south from the weakening cyclone due to a strong pressure gradient to the south.
System 23W

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
9:00 AM JST December 28 2014
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.9N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
================
24 HRS: 8.9N 125.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Mindanao
System 23W

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SENIANG
5:00 AM PhST December 28 2014
=============================
The Low Pressure Area east of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "SENIANG"

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Seniang (1004 hPa) located at 7.9N 129.4E or 340 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Signal Warnings
============

Signal Warning #1

Mindanao region
=================
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Agusan del Norte
4. Agusan del Sur
5. Davao del Norte
6. Davao Oriental
7. Compostella Valley
8. Camiguin Island
9. Misamis Oriental
10. Bukidnon

Additional Information
======================
Expected landfall: Monday morning in the vicinity of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur and associated with occasional rains with occasional gusty winds and moderate-heavy rainfall (7-15mm per hour).

Estimated rainfall amount is from 7 – 15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PWS #1 as well as the rest of Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Fisher folks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.


The snow-covered streets of Denver, Colo., Friday, Dec. 26, 2014
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin (5:30AM IST/0:00 AM UTC)
======================================

Vortex (95B) over southwest Bay of Bengal and neighborhood is centered near 7.5N 83.2E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Vortex (KATE) over south Indian Ocean is centered near 12.5S 93.0E
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5


Trucks with snow plows attached shovel roads Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2014, along 13th Avenue in Denver..


Quoting 255. Climate175:

00z NAM still on board.
That Montana high though.
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:


The NAM gives us 2-5 inches, the NAM has us in the 20s with snow.
According to RTMA analysis, the month-to-date average temperature across the United States this month stands at 38F. We'll see how this value changes over the coming days, especially with arctic air likely to invade a good chunk of the nation, but December 2014 should solidly make the top 10 warmest going back to 1895...a far cry from the 16th coldest we experienced in November.
Quoting 265. TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to RTMA analysis, the month-to-date average temperature across the United States this month stands at 38F. We'll see how this value changes over the coming days, especially with arctic air likely to invade a good chunk of the nation, but December 2014 should solidly make the top 10 warmest going back to 1895...a far cry from the 16th coldest we experienced in November.


By the looks at some of these long range models for FL it appears Winter might be a no show again this year for C & S FL. Our Winter is usually January after that temps go back up and its not uncommon to start hitting 90 again come late February going into March here in Orlando. Oh and by the way the beaches were so packed here today that Volusia County had to call Lifeguards in for duty as the crowds were so large in some cases at summer time levels.

All of this warmer than average water around FL and across the Bahamas is causing the Bahamain Ridge to keep a firm grip over FL.

Slightly off topic, but still "possibly" weather related.

Air Asia flight QZ 8501 travelling from Indonesia to Singapore has gone missing - reports
@BBCBreaking

EDIT: Confirmation of the dissapearance by Air Asia: AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact at 07:24hrs this morning @AirAsia


I think I saw that there were some storms in the area at the time. Anyone can confirm?
Quoting 249. PedleyCA:

Not having any issues except a cough and cold, but I have COPD
so that just makes that so much better... Been having to take my ex for
appt's and such and going into a hospital can get you sick really fast.


thieves oil aka oil of four thieves
Quoting 267. Doppler22:

Slightly off topic, but still "possibly" weather related.

Air Asia flight QZ 8501 travelling from Indonesia to Singapore has gone missing - reports
@BBCBreaking

I think I saw that there were some storms in the area at the time. Anyone can confirm?

It's 11pm and this is what is average for a high not a low here in FL. Insane and the AC is back on again.



hey scott- I've got one of the best winter gardens ever this year- it's so warm tho, I'm about to lose the broccoli to bolting

AC on here in Jax, too
EDIT: Confirmation of the dissapearance by Air Asia: AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact at 07:24hrs this morning @AirAsia


155 people on board?
AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control at 07:24hrs this morning.

At the present time we unfortunately have no further information regarding the status of the passengers and crew members on board, but we will keep all parties informed as more information becomes available.

The aircraft was an Airbus A320-200 with the registration number PK-AXC.

At this time, search and rescue operations are in progress and AirAsia is cooperating fully and assisting the rescue service.


AirAsia has established an Emergency Call Centre that is available for family or friends of those who may have been on board the aircraft. The number is: +622129850801.

AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com.
Quoting 271. aquak9:
hey scott- I've got one of the best winter gardens ever this year- it's so warm tho, I'm about to lose the broccoli to bolting

AC on here in Jax, too


We have to watch tho as we could get what I call a "Flash Freeze" meaning we get a hard freeze for a night then its back into the 80's. All it takes here is one freeze and all my plants are cooked. If this were to happen it would be more like Mid January.
Quoting 274. TropicalAnalystwx13:

AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that flight QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control at 07:24hrs this morning.

At the present time we unfortunately have no further information regarding the status of the passengers and crew members on board, but we will keep all parties informed as more information becomes available.

The aircraft was an Airbus A320-200 with the registration number PK-AXC.

At this time, search and rescue operations are in progress and AirAsia is cooperating fully and assisting the rescue service.


AirAsia has established an Emergency Call Centre that is available for family or friends of those who may have been on board the aircraft. The number is: 622129850801.

AirAsia will release further information as soon as it becomes available. Updated information will also be posted on the AirAsia website, www.airasia.com.


Looks like there was some heavy convection in the vicinity of the plane.
Quoting 267. Doppler22:

Slightly off topic, but still "possibly" weather related.

Air Asia flight QZ 8501 travelling from Indonesia to Singapore has gone missing - reports
@BBCBreaking

EDIT: Confirmation of the dissapearance by Air Asia: AirAsia Indonesia regrets to confirm that QZ8501 from Surabaya to Singapore has lost contact at 07:24hrs this morning @AirAsia


I think I saw that there were some storms in the area at the time. Anyone can confirm?
Here we go...Again
Quoting 199. washingtonian115:

I know a lot of agencies are calling for another cold and snowy winter for the east but I don't see it this year.As I said earlier it looks like the storm track is setting up west of the Appalachian and the cold air is instead pouring down more out west then here on the east coast.Unless something breaks here I do not see a end to this pattern.People keep forecasting this "change" that always seems to be 10 days away.May I remind you all of the 2013 hurricane season?.There was always some "change to the pattern" being brought up that would happen in 7-10 days that never happened.A repeat of the 97-1998 winter here for the big cities is not out of the question.
A repeat of the 1997-98 winter would bring a lot of rain to California.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

Here we go...Again
Looks like the year of missing planes.
Quoting 271. aquak9:

hey scott- I've got one of the best winter gardens ever this year- it's so warm tho, I'm about to lose the broccoli to bolting

AC on here in Jax, too


My experience has been that if you pick the (too small) central head on bolting broccoli, it will produce side shoots with surprisingly large heads and do all right unless the weather is really hot (over 65 at night and 85+ during the day). If plants are growing well and fast though, they are much more vulnerable to freezes. I've overwintered broccoli in DC through multiple nights down in the teens and lost it to winterkill in Tallahassee in a single night near 20 following 80 degree days and 60 degree nights. Broccoli will bolt (head) early if exposed to a lot of cold when the seedlings are 4" in diameter or more.
Indonesian Air Force has dispatched a 737-200MPA to search for #QZ8501, weather cited as "challenging".
@GerryS
@latikambourke 4m
"pilot had asked for permission to fly higher to 34,000 feet because of bad weather"
Sad to hear what has happened. I flew Air Asia from Phuket-Bangkok on an A320-20 and it was a rather nice flight. Plane was brand new, and apparently so was most of there fleet.
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@latikambourke 4m
"pilot had asked for permission to fly higher to 34,000 feet because of bad weather"


Reports of a plane crash in the sea waters of East Belitung, Bangka Beltung.

Link
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/contact-with-airasia-flig ht-qz8501-bound-for-singapore-from-surabaya-lost-0 33803688.html

:(
I hope and pray everyone on board's alright but it doesn't look likely.
Bad weather shouldn't be able to knock a plane at cruising altitude out of the sky without a mayday call unless it was a mid-air break up. Which is something catastrophic that weather should not cause.
Quoting 266. StormTrackerScott:



By the looks at some of these long range models for FL it appears Winter might be a no show again this year for C & S FL. Our Winter is usually January after that temps go back up and its not uncommon to start hitting 90 again come late February going into March here in Orlando. Oh and by the way the beaches were so packed here today that Volusia County had to call Lifeguards in for duty as the crowds were so large in some cases at summer time levels.

All of this warmer than average water around FL and across the Bahamas is causing the Bahamain Ridge to keep a firm grip over FL.




Temps don't typically hit 90 in February, February is often just as cool in Florida as January, and march doesn't usually feature extended 70's to low 80's until the end of the month. The all time record in February might be 90, but the all time record low there is mid 20's also.

This is just a weather patter, just because its warm for now doesn't mean winter will be a no show or that it's almost over. Last year, winter arrived late, and it stayed late.

Winter in Florida historically is very patchy, troughs in the east, and we are chilly to even cold like we are a couple states north, a ridge and its tropical like we are in Cancun or Cuba.

Florida doesn't really have extended seasonal cold, rather it comes in patterns. They can come early, middle or late, but when ridges arrive, you can be sure that a subtropical ridge combined with still is fairly strong sun angle will mean plenty of warmth.

I've always said that winter in Florida is like mid to late Spring up north. Really any kind of weather is possible, from icy cold, to warm and humid, unbelievably sunny and benign, to severe weather and torrential rain.


I'm not a fan of winter ridges personally, upper 70's and low 80's in winter with no active weather isn't my thing. I prefer frequent cold fronts with a lot of change in the weather this time of year.


But I like ridges in the summer because they are summer like warm with lots of sun, and they help lead to the sea breeze thunderstorm patter over time.

Whatever the case, in the short term, weather sure is heck isn't looking El Nino like in Florida, but it's too early to say what the rest of the winter will be like, heck, January could be warm and dry, and February could be cold and wet. We just simply can't say.
10.43 am: Local Indonesian media reports that the remains of a crashed plane has been found off Belitung Islands

Florian Witulski (@vaitor on Twitter) who is covering the incident, reports that the local media has said that the remains of a crashed aircraft has been found off Belitung Islands, from where QZ8501 went missing.

However, the local media reports cannot confirm if the crashed aircraft is the missing flight.
Asia is becoming the new Bermuda triangle.... May the lost souls Rest In Peace.
Second shot seems to be a miss.
Quoting 291. Gearsts:

Second shot seems to be a miss.



Yes,the second warm pool has been less warm and not as large as the very warm and large pool of March/April.
Been a great season for broccoli here in SC. Every weekend I'm out picking the surprisingly large side shoots. I didn't plant very many, but wish I had mainly to share. No pesticides and so good.

Quoting 281. georgevandenberghe:



My experience has been that if you pick the (too small) central head on bolting broccoli, it will produce side shoots with surprisingly large heads and do all right unless the weather is really hot (over 65 at night and 85+ during the day). If plants are growing well and fast though, they are much more vulnerable to freezes. I've overwintered broccoli in DC through multiple nights down in the teens and lost it to winterkill in Tallahassee in a single night near 20 following 80 degree days and 60 degree nights. Broccoli will bolt (head) early if exposed to a lot of cold when the seedlings are 4" in diameter or more.
Quoting 190. PlazaRed:

Bad conditions continueing in Northern Europe with 100 MPH winds and blizzards raging along.
Ferries canceled, in the English channel.
Storm moving on into Germany, Poland etc.
Heavy snow and high winds forecast for northern Spain.
Cool and about 13/C here in the south of Spain.
Doubtless Barb will have something to say about all this affecting her at some point.


Good morning! Well, Barb is unfortunately hampered by some annoying toothache since Christmas, and the new cold outside doesn't improve the situation ;-) Nevertheless, after this snowfall yesterday, followed by freezing temps of a clear night I got up early this morning to catch some photos before sun will lick up the white color. Here is one of them, showing one of the old towers of our city wall in Mainz (more will follow in my blog sometimes later):




France Alps: Snow strands motorists in Savoy
27 December 2014 Last updated at 22:58 GMT
Snow and ice in the French Alps have stranded 15,000 vehicles, snarling up holiday traffic to and from ski resorts, French media report.
The country declared an orange weather alert, its second-highest, as local authorities scrambled to put up motorists for the night.
One man died when his vehicle slid into a ravine in the Isere region. ...


U.K., Europe Pummeled by Snow, Icy Weather, Leaving Drivers Stranded
By Associated Press, Published Dec 28 2014 06:54 AM EST, weather.com

But way worse weather related news come in from the Mediterranean right now! Hope they manage to rescue those poor people!!

Hundreds trapped as ferry burns in heavy seas off Greece
World Bulletin/News Desk, Update: 13:30, 28 December 2014 Sunday
The Norman Atlantic, carrying 222 vehicles, 411 passengers and 55 crew, was 44 nautical miles northwest of the island of Corfu when it sent a distress signal after a fire started in the lower deck
Hundreds of passengers were trapped on a burning car ferry off Greece on Sunday, pleading to be rescued by a flotilla of nearby ships that battled storm conditions in open water to try to reach them.
The Greek coastguard said 150 people had been saved from the Italian-registered Norman Atlantic, which was carrying almost 500 passengers and crew when it sent a distress signal after fire broke out on its lower deck.
As high winds and rough seas impeded efforts by other ships to rescue those still on board, it was unclear whether there had been casualties or if any passengers were in the water.
"The ship is still on fire, the floor is burning," passenger George Styliaras told Greek TV by telephone, adding that smoke was making it difficult to breathe. "We don't know how long we can hold on."
Cold winter temperatures would make survival in the sea difficult unless rescue came quickly.
Shipping Minister Miltiadis Varvitsiotis said the combination of very bad weather, with winds of up to 55 miles (88 kilometres) per hour and the fire, made the operation extremely complicated.
"We are doing everything we can to save those on board and no one, no one will be left helpless in this tough situation," he told reporters. "It is one of the most complicated rescue operations that we have ever done."
Coastguard officials said the Norman Atlantic, which was also carrying more than 200 vehicles, was 44 nautical miles northwest of the island of Corfu when it radioed for help.
Coastguard spokesman Nikos Lagkadianos said 150 people were on a rescue boat, of whom 42 had been successfully transferred to the container ship Spirit of Piraeus. Rough seas made it difficult for the rescue boat to approach the ship.
A journalist who was aboard Cruise Europa, a nearby cruise ship, said he could see passengers on the upper deck of the Norman Atlantic clinging to the railings as they waited for rescue. ...

Whole article see link above.

Screenshot showing low "Hiltrud" battering the Mediterranean. Ship is in the Adriatic Sea, drifting towards the coast of Albania (with capital Tirana; click to enlarge the map), where thunderstorms are going on:




Edit: BBC now provides a map with the location of the burning ferry:





Source: Greek ferry fire: Evacuation hampered by winds

(BTW, be careful with youtubes: Nearly all videos I've watched so far, claiming to show the burning "Norman Atlantic", are pictures of different vessel accidents ...)
remember about 10-15 yrs ago the itz almost took one down near hispanola because turbulence . might be a similiar situation. posted back in early nov the snook were not active this fall. this signaled a warm winter for florida. mother nature rules.
Quoting 291. Gearsts:

Second shot seems to be a miss.

i am starting to believe that ocean currents are changing...From the norm....if there is...
Hello Barb..May tooth get better quick..:..The ferry fire looks hideous..Godspeed to all on board.
Giant Wave Impact in South Africa on Sunday, 28 December, 2014 at 04:37 (04:37 AM) UTC.
Description
Three swimmers in Kalk Bay were rescued after parts of Cape Town flooded, when eight-metre-high (26 foot-high) waves hit the coast, the municipality said on Friday. "Coastal towns and resorts along the Atlantic and False Bay coastline were left swamped after tidal surge during the early hours of this morning," acting head of the City of Cape Town's disaster operations centre, Wilfred Solomons-Johannes, said in a statement. He said the three bathers were rescued by lifeguards after being swept off the seawall in the Kalk Bay harbour. "Eight metre wave heights occurred during early hours of the morning". Flood damage to roads, campsites and houses were also reported in various areas, with holidaymakers at some campsites being evacuated to higher ground. "Between 05:00 and 06:00... tidal waters flooded tent and caravan camping sites at Ganzekraal on the West Coast, Silwerstroomstrand Beach near Mamre and Atlantis as well as the coastline between Melkbosstrand until Milnerton Lagoon on the Atlantic. Chalets at the Kleinbaai Resort near Melkbosstrand were submerged underwater on Friday morning and recreational areas had also been engulfed in water. Various roads along the False Bay coastline were closed for mop-up operations. "The subway at Dalebrook Tidal Pool was completely flooded and benches have washed into the pool." Solomons-Johannes said disaster teams were on high alert for 18:00 on Friday evening when another high tide was expected. "Although not anticipated to cause problems, there is still the potential for flooding of coastal areas."
Quoting 291. Gearsts:
Second shot seems to be a miss.


Don't worry there's a third one coming and this next one looks very big. This is what the CFSv2 & Euro are picking up on for next summer.


Vehicle Accident in Italy on Sunday, 28 December, 2014 at 11:40 (11:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A Turkish-registered merchant ship sank in the northern Adriatic Sea off the Italian port of Ravenna Sunday following a collision with another vessel in rough seas, local media reported. Coast guard boats were said to be at the scene and initial reports suggested several crew from the stricken vessel were unaccounted for. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi confirmed on Twitter that there had been an incident off Ravenna involving a Turkish boat and said the government would be shortly issuing an update on the situation. The accident occurred as Italy was attempting to coordinate the evacuation of hundreds of passengers and crew from a stricken ferry off the Greek island of Corfu, in the south of the Adriatic. The ferry had been destined for Italian port Ancona when a fire erupted on board.
Quoting 278. Barefootontherocks:

A repeat of the 1997-98 winter would bring a lot of rain to California.
Good morning B. It is my opinion , but California will not see anything like 97/98. Looks like the Modoki set up if anything else. I was surprised when M.Ventrice said La Ninaish in his post. This could be bad for destructive winter weather. Ice storms being the main threat.
Snow Storm in USA on Sunday, 28 December, 2014 at 04:51 (04:51 AM) UTC.
Description
The snow has been making a mess of many roads and highways in and around the Twin Cities area since late Friday night. Snow emergencies are in effect for Minneapolis, St. Paul, Richfield, Robbinsdale, and now St. Louis Park is also declaring a snow emergency. Between four and six inches of snow fell across the metro as winter returned, after unseasonably warm temperatures over the holidays. Slick road conditions prompted traffic officials to warn drivers to travel with caution. Lt. Tiffani Nielson with the Minnesota State Patrol said there were 310 crashes statewide between 6 p.m. Friday and 11 a.m. Saturday. She said one crash was fatal and 39 resulted in injuries. Snowfall up until now had been barely half of the 30-year average of 21.2 inches for November and December, with just 10.8 inches recorded in Minneapolis since November 1st Travel is expected to remain difficult in some locations, especially for those heading east.
This could be bad..Especially for the N.E.




here come the cold weather watch out!!
Quoting 304. hydrus:

This could be bad..Especially for the N.E.


All I see is another useless rainstorm.Move along nothing to see here.....
Quoting 275. StormTrackerScott:



We have to watch tho as we could get what I call a "Flash Freeze" meaning we get a hard freeze for a night then its back into the 80's. All it takes here is one freeze and all my plants are cooked. If this were to happen it would be more like Mid January.


I had really good lettuce destroyed by a freeze in early April 1987 in Tallahassee. Temps got a few degrees below freezing but the lettuce was heading and growing fast , so it was vulnerable.


i tell you peolpe a few weeks ago its going to be a year to see lots of rain storm on the east coast!!
12z NAM-3-6 inches and still on board.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1254 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

VALID 12Z WED DEC 31 2014 - 12Z SUN JAN 04 2015


...BIG CHILL FOR THE WEST...

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT THE MEDIUM
RANGE WILL OPEN WITH COLD AIR WELL ENTRENCHED IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO
HAVE FILLED EVER EVERY NOOK AND CRANNY OF THE NATION WEST OF THE
HUNDREDTH MERIDIAN. SNOW LEVELS LOOK IMPRESSIVELY LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ALONG PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STAY FRIGID EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN WASHINGTON STATE--PROTECTED FROM THE
DEVELOPING CHINOOK OVER MONTANA VIA THE EXTREME POSITIVE TILT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A FRESH UPSLOPE
SNOWPACK IN EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD HELP WEDNESDAY DAWN BITTERLY
COLD.

THE CRYSTAL BALL DARKENS CONSIDERABLY BY NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN THE
DEEP LOBE OF COLD AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY BEGINS TO KICK
EASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
VIS-A-VIS THE EJECTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN VORTEX WILL HAVE GREAT
BEARING ON THE EXTENT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STATES. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY TAKE UP
MORE REAL ESTATE THAN HERETOFORE THIS SEASON CONSIDERING THE HEFT
OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST MID- TO LATE WEEK. A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND MAY VIE FOR DOMINANCE WITH THE HEART OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST SYSTEM--SOMETHING BEST SORTED OUT AT THIS POINT BY A
HEAVY RELIANCE ON THE RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS.


CISCO
313. txjac
37F and drizzling rain here ...finally a good day to light the fireplace
Quoting 313. txjac:

37F and drizzling rain here ...finally a good day to light the fireplace
It's also a good day to make stew :).
315. txjac
Quoting 314. washingtonian115:

It's also a good day to make stew :).


I like how you think washi! I made chicken and dumplings last night. Perfect weather for it.
Stew does sound good though too!
Quoting 315. txjac:



I like how you think washi! I made chicken and dumplings last night. Perfect weather for it.
Stew does sound good though too!
I have Chicken a dumplings on the list this winter.I still have a whole booklet left and since last winter was really cold at times it really hit the spot.You should try chicken chili.It's really good!.
Quoting 316. washingtonian115:

I have Chicken a dumplings on the list this winter.I still have a whole booklet left and since last winter was really cold at times it really hit the spot.You should try chicken chili.It's really good!.
Quoting 313. txjac:

37F and drizzling rain here ...finally a good day to light the fireplace


I'm short of wood this winter and have been only lighting the woodstove on cold days. Not once this month of December. If the warmth holds I can start being more liberal with the fires after 1/15. I expect to light a fire tomorrow though.

Citrus has been on the porch all month.. very ornamental and gets comments from delivery people. It may have to come in 12/30 though.

I still expect a few big snow dumps before tax day in the DC metro area.
Quoting 310. Climate175:

12z NAM-3-6 inches and still on board.

Where are you seeing 3-6"?

321. txjac
Quoting 316. washingtonian115:

I have Chicken a dumplings on the list this winter.I still have a whole booklet left and since last winter was really cold at times it really hit the spot.You should try chicken chili.It's really good!.


I agree, chicken chili rocks ...try some white chicken chili ..awesome!
Quoting 320. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Where are you seeing 3-6"?


Wxrisk saying somewhere in his comments, but you know how he is so i am not surprised.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where are you seeing 3-6"?

In his dreams for a white New Year. :-)
Quoting 322. Climate175:

Wxrisk saying somewhere in his comments, but you know how he is so i am not surprised.

Ah, I see the problem--I clicked the wrong link.

12z NAM puts out about 2" for DCA.

Quoting 321. txjac:



I agree, chicken chili rocks ...try some white chicken chili ..awesome!
I will indeed have to try some the next time it gets really cold outside!.

Hmm
CapitalWeatherGang
10:30 a.m. update: Radar is clear for now around the D.C. area. But we should still see some showers move in from the west-southwest during the afternoon. As for the potential for light snow Monday night into Tuesday, the chance of anything significant seems to be going down, not up
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I'm short of wood this winter and have been only lighting the woodstove on cold days. Not once this month of December. If the warmth holds I can start being more liberal with the fires after 1/15. I expect to light a fire tomorrow though.

Citrus has been on the porch all month.. very ornamental and gets comments from delivery people. It may have to come in 12/30 though.

I still expect a few big snow dumps before tax day in the DC metro area.
68 degrees here after a low of 53. Looks like New Year's Day will be the coldest with a high of "only" 54. Things get a little tricky for the weekend though, with a low diving down out of the Plains and enough warm air coming from the Gulf to get us in the mid 70's. No snow but it's the ingredients for some severe weather.
Quoting Skyepony:
Vehicle Accident in Italy on Sunday, 28 December, 2014 at 11:40 (11:40 AM) UTC.
Description
A Turkish-registered merchant ship sank in the northern Adriatic Sea off the Italian port of Ravenna Sunday following a collision with another vessel in rough seas, local media reported. Coast guard boats were said to be at the scene and initial reports suggested several crew from the stricken vessel were unaccounted for. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi confirmed on Twitter that there had been an incident off Ravenna involving a Turkish boat and said the government would be shortly issuing an update on the situation. The accident occurred as Italy was attempting to coordinate the evacuation of hundreds of passengers and crew from a stricken ferry off the Greek island of Corfu, in the south of the Adriatic. The ferry had been destined for Italian port Ancona when a fire erupted on board.
A "vehicle accident"?
Quoting 152. ricderr:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago
CFSv2 Jan forecast has finally caught on that El Nino will not be driving the pattern o/ the U.S. Much more Nina'esk

Good catch ricderr. I wonder by what measure our fellow blogger concludes "more Nina'esk"? I would come down on the Nino'esque side of the great divide.
Quoting barbamz:


Good morning! Well, Barb is unfortunately hampered by some annoying toothache since Christmas, and the new cold outside doesn't improve the situation ;-) Nevertheless, after this snowfall yesterday, followed by freezing temps of a clear night I got up early this morning to catch some photos before sun will lick up the white color. Here is one of them, showing one of the old towers of our city wall in Mainz (more will follow in my blog sometimes later):




France Alps: Snow strands motorists in Savoy
27 December 2014 Last updated at 22:58 GMT
Snow and ice in the French Alps have stranded 15,000 vehicles, snarling up holiday traffic to and from ski resorts, French media report.
The country declared an orange weather alert, its second-highest, as local authorities scrambled to put up motorists for the night.
One man died when his vehicle slid into a ravine in the Isere region. ...


U.K., Europe Pummeled by Snow, Icy Weather, Leaving Drivers Stranded
By Associated Press, Published Dec 28 2014 06:54 AM EST, weather.com

But way worse weather related news come in from the Mediterranean right now! Hope they manage to rescue those poor people!!

Hundreds trapped as ferry burns in heavy seas off Greece
World Bulletin/News Desk, Update: 13:30, 28 December 2014 Sunday
The Norman Atlantic, carrying 222 vehicles, 411 passengers and 55 crew, was 44 nautical miles northwest of the island of Corfu when it sent a distress signal after a fire started in the lower deck
Hundreds of passengers were trapped on a burning car ferry off Greece on Sunday, pleading to be rescued by a flotilla of nearby ships that battled storm conditions in open water to try to reach them.
The Greek coastguard said 150 people had been saved from the Italian-registered Norman Atlantic, which was carrying almost 500 passengers and crew when it sent a distress signal after fire broke out on its lower deck.
As high winds and rough seas impeded efforts by other ships to rescue those still on board, it was unclear whether there had been casualties or if any passengers were in the water.
"The ship is still on fire, the floor is burning," passenger George Styliaras told Greek TV by telephone, adding that smoke was making it difficult to breathe. "We don't know how long we can hold on."
Cold winter temperatures would make survival in the sea difficult unless rescue came quickly.
Shipping Minister Miltiadis Varvitsiotis said the combination of very bad weather, with winds of up to 55 miles (88 kilometres) per hour and the fire, made the operation extremely complicated.
"We are doing everything we can to save those on board and no one, no one will be left helpless in this tough situation," he told reporters. "It is one of the most complicated rescue operations that we have ever done."
Coastguard officials said the Norman Atlantic, which was also carrying more than 200 vehicles, was 44 nautical miles northwest of the island of Corfu when it radioed for help.
Coastguard spokesman Nikos Lagkadianos said 150 people were on a rescue boat, of whom 42 had been successfully transferred to the container ship Spirit of Piraeus. Rough seas made it difficult for the rescue boat to approach the ship.
A journalist who was aboard Cruise Europa, a nearby cruise ship, said he could see passengers on the upper deck of the Norman Atlantic clinging to the railings as they waited for rescue. ...

Whole article see link above.

Screenshot showing low "Hiltrud" battering the Mediterranean. Ship is in the Adriatic Sea, drifting towards the coast of Albania (with capital Tirana; click to enlarge the map), where thunderstorms are going on:




Edit: BBC now provides a map with the location of the burning ferry:





Source: Greek ferry fire: Evacuation hampered by winds

(BTW, be careful with youtubes: Nearly all videos I've watched so far, claiming to show the burning "Norman Atlantic", are pictures of different vessel accidents ...)
Oh, you poor thing. There's almost nothing worse than a toothache. I hope your dentist can fix you up tomorrow.

I'm confused by the ferry on fire. I can't imagine why it was allowed to sail given the bad weather. From the story, it sounds like the container ship on scene is engaging in rescue work but the nearby cruise ship is doing nothing? It's hard to tell from these kinds of preliminary stories what's really happening but every commercial ship at sea is obligated to attempt to rescue those in distress. Between a container ship and a cruise ship, they should be able organize a lee side rescue. I sure hope that's what's happening.
Quoting guygee:
Good catch ricderr. I wonder by what measure our fellow blogger concludes "more Nina'esk"? I would come down on the Nino'esque side of the great divide.
LOL. I don't even know what those terms mean. Seem like a "tornado'esqe" kind of thing. Either we've got one or we don't. Not only that, but hasn't Ventrice been on board with an El Nino any day now...since last year?
Quoting 328. guygee:

Good catch ricderr. I wonder by what measure our fellow blogger concludes "more Nina'esk"? I would come down on the Nino'esque side of the great divide.

Don't get too Kafkaesque on us now.

Picture of the snow from my house yesterday. The snow is still here today and should stay until at least Tuesday as the temperature is forecast to only reach 2c (35F) the next few days.
333. txjac
Quoting 332. ZacWeatherKidUK:


Picture of the snow from my house yesterday. The snow is still here today and should stay until at least Tuesday as the temperature is forecast to only reach 2c (35F) the next few days.


What a beautiful view. I imagine all seasons look beautiful from that vantage point
Quoting whitewabit:
10.43 am: Local Indonesian media reports that the remains of a crashed plane has been found off Belitung Islands

Florian Witulski (@vaitor on Twitter) who is covering the incident, reports that the local media has said that the remains of a crashed aircraft has been found off Belitung Islands, from where QZ8501 went missing.

However, the local media reports cannot confirm if the crashed aircraft is the missing flight.
Official is the air search has been called off until 0600 local time. Even with the bad weather in the area, Singapore and Indonesia have marine reconnaissance aircraft that are capable of radar and RF searching during the dark. It appears that either the aircraft didn't have a Cospas-Sarsat satellite beacon or it wasn't working. The best chance they have to find the aircraft is have SAR planes up there listening for the ELT and using radar to locate wreckage. If they really called off the search until morning, that's a huge mistake.
Quoting 302. hydrus:

Good morning B. It is my opinion , but California will not see anything like 97/98. Looks like the Modoki set up if anything else. I was surprised when M.Ventrice said La Ninaish in his post. This could be bad for destructive winter weather. Ice storms being the main threat.
Hi hydrus. That was an extreme year for sure, and , just to be clear, I did not say that's what's coming in the next three months. I do think California (add: weather) will continue pulling itself away from exceptional drought, girl or boy child notwithstanding. My guess, with all respect due Michael V, is the boy'll hang in by his fingernails for a couple months. After observing readings related to weather this past year, I don't put much stock in mankind's ability to predict which child will show up. The science is too new.
Quoting 333. txjac:



What a beautiful view. I imagine all seasons look beautiful from that vantage point

It does! Have many great pictures of this view, even after living here for 7 years I still never get tired of it.

View in summer

Sunset
Quoting 330. sar2401:

LOL. I don't even know what those terms mean. Seem like a "tornado'esqe" kind of thing. Either we've got one or we don't. Not only that, but hasn't Ventrice been on board with an El Nino any day now...since last year?
No, I think it is more nuanced, we have been on the verge of an El Nino for some time without actually having one, but based on the easing of the CA drought and the wet FL fall weather it seems the atmosphere has been leaning towards an El Nino pattern.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Bad weather shouldn't be able to knock a plane at cruising altitude out of the sky without a mayday call unless it was a mid-air break up. Which is something catastrophic that weather should not cause.
The reports are that flight QZ8501 requested an altitude change to flight level 340 (34,000) from FL 300 due to "bad weather" I haven't seen anything about what that "bad weather" entailed. The request was granted at 2313 GMT. The aircraft was seen on radar up until 2316 GMT. The aircraft was lost on radar at 2317 GMT. This timeline would indicate some kind of catastrophic failure. Obviously, a one minute gap between last seen and not seen doesn't give the crew a chance to do anything but fly the plane. The first duty of the crew is to fly the plane and try to recover from the emergency. Getting on the radio is the last thing on their minds.
Quoting 331. Grothar:

Don't get too Kafkaesque on us now.
I aspire to Kafka-esque, but more in real life than in my writing here, lol. I admit I had to check on that "-esque" thing, from wiktionary

-esque

1. In the style or manner of; appended to nouns, especially proper nouns, and forming adjectives.  "Kafkaesque"
2. Resembling; appended to nouns, especially proper nouns, and forming adjectives.
Quoting guygee:
No, I think it is more nuanced, we have been on the verge of an El Nino for some time without actually having one, but based on the easing of the CA drought and the wet FL fall weather it seems the atmosphere has been leaning towards an El Nino pattern.

That's nice but, believe it or not, Florida is not the entire Southeast. Even in Florida, the Panhandle is abnormally dry. South Alabama, Mississippi, and parts of Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia are also abnormally dry. This is not the kind of thing I'd expect to see even with our pretend El Nino.

So, Hiltrud is approaching Romania and as far as the Weather channels are forecasting, tomorrow will be the harshest conditions with the strongest winds and the heaviest snow falls. Winds are forecasting to reach 80-90 km/h. Tomorrow I will upload some videos during the snow storm. I like to share the snow storm events that occur in this part of the world where once or twice a year we have some freak snow storms, beautiful in their ferocity.
I've created an animation of the 0z ECMWF forecast for 850mb temperature anomalies through 240hr (13mb loop!). The much-heralded pattern change is here and likely to sustain itself through the first week of January. The two main drivers behind the upcoming arctic air intrusions into the U.S. will be a very significant -EPO (Alaskan ridge) and the upcoming split of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Link

Moving forward into mid-January, it looks like we will see a rejuvenation of above-average temperatures (but not a torch like December has been) across the Central/East United States as a new MJO signal builds across the Indian Ocean. However, this wave is expected to progress into the favored octants 8 and 1 by the end of the month, which is a good signal for Central/East U.S. cold. It's important to keep in mind that MJO amplitude increases as we progress farther into the winter, meaning that the number of MJO signals that simply fall into the circle of death rather than propagate the globe should decrease. That works in our favor for those of us who like cold.
Quoting 342. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've created an animation of the 0z ECMWF forecast for 850mb temperature anomalies through 240hr (13mb loop!). The much-heralded pattern change is here and likely to sustain itself through the first week of January. The two main drivers behind the upcoming arctic air intrusions into the U.S. will be a very significant -EPO (Alaskan ridge) and the upcoming split of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Link
Yes nd then following this big cool down will be warm up.I better enjoy it while it last.
Quoting 300. StormTrackerScott:



Don't worry there's a third one coming and this next one looks very big. This is what the CFSv2 & Euro are picking up on for next summer.



Yes but the first shot was record breaking and did nothing, second shot was looking strong and now seems to be doing nothing and the third shot i feel like is going to be the same story.
Quoting 340. sar2401:

That's nice but, believe it or not, Florida is not the entire Southeast. Even in Florida, the Panhandle is abnormally dry. South Alabama, Mississippi, and parts of Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia are also abnormally dry. This is not the kind of thing I'd expect to see even with our pretend El Nino.


The Drought Index is based several factors independent of recent precipitation anomalies:
"The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a weekly product that
provides a general summary of current drought conditions.
Multiple drought indicators, including various indices, outlooks,
field reports, and news accounts are reviewed and synthesized.
In addition, numerous experts from agencies and offices
across the country are consulted. The result is the consensus
assessment presented on the USDM map.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu http://drought.unl.edu"
Source: NWS Drought Fact Sheet(pdf)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Sad to hear what has happened. I flew Air Asia from Phuket-Bangkok on an A320-20 and it was a rather nice flight. Plane was brand new, and apparently so was most of there fleet.
Must have been a A320-200. That's the only aircraft in their fleet which, at 169 aircraft, is pretty huge. Air Asia and their many subsidiaries have achieved the lowest cost per seat in the airline industry. They done this with employee productivity far in excess of Malaysia Airlines. Their employees seem to be generally happy to work for the airline and deliver good service, especially for a budget carrier. They have never had a fatal accident since the airline was founded with just two aircraft in 2001. I've flown them several times, and fly them in preference to Malaysian Airlines when they fly the same routes. Something really terrible must have happened to cause the loss of the aircraft and the souls on board.

Quoting guygee:
The Drought Index is based several factors independent of recent precipitation anomalies:
"The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a weekly product that
provides a general summary of current drought conditions.
Multiple drought indicators, including various indices, outlooks,
field reports, and news accounts are reviewed and synthesized.
In addition, numerous experts from agencies and offices
across the country are consulted. The result is the consensus
assessment presented on the USDM map.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu http://drought.unl.edu"
Source: NWS Drought Fact Sheet(pdf)

And it's still dry in Alabama. No matter what the verbiage, this is not typical for an El Nino. It should be wet and cool here. Instead, it's warm and dry.
Quoting 343. washingtonian115:

Yes nd then following this big cool down will be warm up.I better enjoy it while it last.

The issue so far this winter is that we've seen a predominantly positive AO. As I posted about last night, the near-record Siberian snow extent during October should force a negative AO at some point, but the question becomes exactly when. Some of the analog years for this season did not see a flip to a negative AO until late January or early February, but when it flipped, it flipped in a big way. It certainly looks like that will be the case this season, setting the stage for a backloaded winter like 2012-13.

I'm holding onto my prediction that February will be the snowiest and coldest month of the winter relative to average, and if I'm wrong...well, I like my crow fried. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've created an animation of the 0z ECMWF forecast for 850mb temperature anomalies through 240hr (13mb loop!). The much-heralded pattern change is here and likely to sustain itself through the first week of January. The two main drivers behind the upcoming arctic air intrusions into the U.S. will be a very significant -EPO (Alaskan ridge) and the upcoming split of the stratospheric polar vortex.

Link

Moving forward into mid-January, it looks like we will see a rejuvenation of above-average temperatures (but not a torch like December has been) across the Central/East United States as a new MJO signal builds across the Indian Ocean. However, this wave is expected to progress into the favored octants 8 and 1 by the end of the month, which is a good signal for Central/East U.S. cold. It's important to keep in mind that MJO amplitude increases as we progress farther into the winter, meaning that the number of MJO signals that simply fall into the circle of death rather than propagate the globe should decrease. That works in our favor for those of us who like cold.
Nice animation. It looks like December 29 and January 3 might be the dates for some severe weather down here, especially that huge low on January 3. We haven't had much in the way of severe weather in Alabama so far but it looks like that might change.
Quoting 335. Barefootontherocks:

Hi hydrus. That was an extreme year for sure, and , just to be clear, I did not say that's what's coming in the next three months. I do think California (add: weather) will continue pulling itself away from exceptional drought, girl or boy child notwithstanding. My guess, with all respect due Michael V, is the boy'll hang in by his fingernails for a couple months. After observing readings related to weather this past year, I don't put much stock in mankind's ability to predict which child will show up. The science is too new.


Too new?



..thats what they said about the first Heart Transplant...in Dec 0f 1967.

Quoting 347. sar2401:


And it's still dry in Alabama. No matter what the verbiage, this is not typical for an El Nino. It should be wet and cool here. Instead, it's warm and dry.
True it is dry in Alabama. There is only guidance for expected El Nino atmospheric conditions over the US based on temperature and precipitation anomalies and those do not include the presence of ongoing drought. Drought is a condition of climate not weather. Drought has many positive feedbacks that are difficult to overcome. A couple of related links I was perusing:
1. The Soil Moisture's Impact on Weather Conditions
2. Drought and Climate Change
Quoting 348. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The issue so far this winter is that we've seen a predominantly positive AO. As I posted about last night, the near-record Siberian snow extent during October should force a negative AO at some point, but the question becomes exactly when. Some of the analog years for this season did not see a flip to a negative AO until late January or early February, but when it flipped, it flipped in a big way. It certainly looks like that will be the case this season, setting the stage for a backloaded winter like 2012-13.

I'm holding onto my prediction that February will be the snowiest and coldest month of the winter relative to average, and if I'm wrong...well, I like my crow fried. ;)
Well last March showed that yes we can still get blasted by snow her in D.C.On March 3rd I got I think 8 inches (I need to find my note pad where I wrote the totals down) and a foot of snow from the St Patrick day snow storm and of course the small snow events in between which amounted to 28 inches for the month at my house.DCA of course got lower amounts.
Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

Well last March showed that yes we can still get blasted by snow her in D.C.On March 3rd I got I think 8 inches (I need to find my note pad where I wrote the totals down) and a foot of snow from the St Patrick day snow storm and of course the small snow events in between which amounted to 28 inches for the month at my house.DCA of course got lower amounts.
We also know it can snow in April but it is very rare.
Quoting guygee:
True it is dry in Alabama. There is only guidance for expected El Nino atmospheric conditions over the US based on temperature and precipitation anomalies and those do not include the presence of ongoing drought. Drought is a condition of climate not weather. Drought has many positive feedbacks that are difficult to overcome. A couple of related links I was perusing:
1. The Soil Moisture's Impact on Weather Conditions
2. Drought and Climate Change
That's a good point in terms of true long term drought. Unless California, for example, gets the kind of flooding rains it got n 1982 and 1986, it's not likely to go from from drought to surplus in one year. I was there for both those events and, as bad as the drought is, those floods were even worse. I'm mote talking about just unusually low amounts of rain, which, in theory, shouldn't happen in the SE during El Nino. We may not get some huge amount of rain, but we should get at least normal rainfall (and temperature) for the winter months. That hasn't happened at all. I'm not convinced we really understand everything about El Nino anyway, especially with ersatz type of event. There may be El Nino's that don't have higher than normal amounts of rainfall. I don't know. The one thing I know for sure is that we have only been studying ENSO for a relatively short period of time, and these are the kinds of phenomena that throw a monkey wrench into our forecasts.
Quoting Gearsts:
Yes but the first shot was record breaking and did nothing, second shot was looking strong and now seems to be doing nothing and the third shot i feel like is going to be the same story.
Did you ever get the feeling it will be December 28, 2016, and we'll still be discussing the big one that's just around the corner? I'm starting to get El Nino fatigue. :-)
I'm not getting my hopes up but Friday morning according to NOAA says rain and snow mix for Greenville, SC. We'll see about that.. Based on the recent pattern, I'm not holding my breath!

Eric
Quoting 349. sar2401:

Nice animation. It looks like December 29 and January 3 might be the dates for some severe weather down here, especially that huge low on January 3. We haven't had much in the way of severe weather in Alabama so far but it looks like that might change.

Yeah, CIPS analogs for next weekend support a threat for some severe weather across the Gulf Coast states. Obviously not a strong signal this far out.

GEOS-5 seemed done running even later than usual. It has the deep cold near the end too but maybe keeps it a north so it mostly just impacts the more northern states.

Mon, Jan 5th


Wed, Jan 7th
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, CIPS analogs for next weekend support a threat for some severe weather across the Gulf Coast states. Obviously not a strong signal this far out.

I used to think I had some slight understanding of the weather down here. It's 70 degrees with a good south wind blowing. It is overcast, and the soundings aren't terrific in terms of any real severe weather, but the temperature is higher than when the sounding was taken, the dewpoint is 69, and things are unstable enough we should get a wandering thunderstorm or two. This is the current sounding:



This is the current radar:



I mean, really, not even a shower? Geez...
Quiet tonight, only ten comments in over 2.5 hours!

Here in Europe its all weather chaos with about 15.000 cars trapped in blizzards in the alps area, mainly France.

Then there is chaos in Croatia with a 50 vehicle pile up in a blizzard.

Down the side of Italy heading towards Greece there is a big Ferry on fire with hundreds on board, many have been rescued but the weather is very bad.

Here in Spain its cold in the northern area with temps down to -18/C. High winds also expected in some areas.

Britain is suffering its coldest night of the year with temps at about -10/C in some areas.

Flat calm in the south of Spain but cloudy and colder than usual.
Nothing more to add to all that lot at the moment.
>


very warm air in the south and cold weather in the mid-west at 4pm on december 28 2014
Quoting 359. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 seemed done running even later than usual. It has the deep cold near the end too but maybe keeps it a north so it mostly just impacts the more northern states.

Mon, Jan 5th


Wed, Jan 7th



low covers me at 150 hours with the coldest air staying north .. southern tier states could have several inches of rain and some flooding ..
Deleted comment .. link didn't work ..
Still showing some coastal snow for Tuesday. Not near as much for PA though..



Quoting 364. whitewabit:



low covers me at 150 hours with the coldest air staying north .. southern tier states could have several inches of rain and some flooding ..

Possibly some really severe weather too..



Quoting 367. Skyepony:


Possibly some really severe weather too..






Wasn't going to call the severe yet .. still need to see where the jet is going to be .. but the possibility is there for several days middle of next week !!
Got this from P's blog.

WARNING:FOR ENTERTAINING PURPOSES ONLY
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
372. beell


Quoting 362. hydrus:

>


Some rare accumulating snow in Las Vegas thanks to the upper low and arctic air?