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Tomas significantly weaker; damage very heavy on St. Lucia and neighboring islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:38 PM GMT on October 31, 2010

Hurricane Tomas dealt a punishing blow to the Caribbean island of St. Lucia, with the neighboring islands of St. Vincent, Dominica, and Barbados also suffering heavy damage. St. Lucia received the full brunt of the northern eyewall of Tomas as it intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds early this morning. The St. Lucia weather service reported that sustained winds of 90 - 95 mph affected the island. A state of emergency has been declared on the island, and there are island-wide power outages on both St. Lucia and Dominica. Heavy flooding affected St. Lucia, washing out many bridges, and the airport is closed due to flooding. Damage to structures is considerable, with many roofs gone, and damage reported to hospitals, schools, and businesses.


Figure 1. Torrential rains from Tomas triggered massive flooding on St. Lucia that destroyed several bridges and severely damaged roads. Image credit: Caribbean Hurricane Network.

Tomas significantly weakens
An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft arrived at Tomas at 2pm this afternoon, and found a much weaker storm. The 2pm EDT center fix found that the pressure has risen to 994 mb, and the strongest surface winds were barely Category 1 hurricane strength, 74 mph. The aircraft found the the eyewall had mostly collapsed. Satellite loops of Tomas also show a significant degradation in the appearance of the storm in recent hours. The storm is highly asymmetric with very little heavy thunderstorm activity or upper level outflow on the west side, and the hurricane has only one prominent spiral band, on the east side. Wind shear is a high 20 knots due to strong upper level west-southwest winds, and these winds are driving dry air at mid-levels of the atmosphere into Tomas' west side, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Tomas taken at 10:30am EDT Saturday October 30, as the storm began lashing the Lesser Antilles. At the time, Tomas was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west-northwest will weaken by Tuesday, as a trough of low pressure approaches the eastern U.S. and breaks down the ridge. This will result in Tomas slowing from its current 9 mph forward speed to 5 mph by Tuesday. By Thursday, the trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the north. The exact timing and location of this turn is still very uncertain. The computer model solutions from the latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) runs include a strike on Haiti on Friday (GFS and GFDL models), a strike on the Dominican Republic on Friday (NOGAPS model), a strike on Haiti on Saturday (UKMET model), a strike on Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Thursday (Canadian), or a strike on Puerto Rico on Friday (HWRF).

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Wind shear is forecast to remain in the high range, 20 - 25 knots, through Monday night, then decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the remainder of the week. Tomas will struggle with the shear and the dry air to its west through Tuesday, and I expect it will weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and remain a tropical storm until Tuesday, when the shear finally relents. At that point, re-intensification is likely, though with the storm's inner core gone, I expect it will take Tomas two days before it can re-establish a complete eyewall. Hindering that process will be the slow motion of the storm, which will allow cooler waters from the depths upwell to the surface and cool the SSTs. Still, the waters are very warm in the Caribbean and these waters extend to great depth, so the upwelling cool water may not impede intensification as much as might ordinarily be expected. The intensity Tomas might have as landfall in Hispaniola or Jamaica is highly uncertain, and a strength anywhere between a tropical storm and Category 3 hurricane would not be surprising. The HWRF model predicts Tomas will be a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane on Friday, while the GFDL foresees Tomas will be a strengthening Category 3 hurricane as it bears down on Haiti Friday afternoon. I predict Tomas will have trouble reorganizing, and will be a strengthening Category 1 hurricane on Friday as it makes landfall in Haiti or the Dominican Republic.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas Friday night at the National Hurricane Center.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Morning All.

Didn't expect to see Thomas in this kinda shape tonight, sheesh.

Recon getting ready to take off.

04:33:30Z 17.700N 64.817W 1012.3 mb*
(~ 29.89 inHg*) - 1010.6 mb*
(~ 29.84 inHg*)
As of the last observation at 04:33:30Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: W (270°)
Location: 95 miles (154 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

and they are off
Quoting geepy86:
one tenth of a inch?
Yeah all the moisture is being shunted to the north. A tenth of an inch of rain equals 1-2 inches of snow depending on temperature.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
You guys have crazy differences in weather due to topography.


Yup... we are one of the very few places that are actually considered to have an official "Mediterranean Climate"

Total annual precipitation is just 608 mm (23.9 in) at the Gonzales weather station in Victoria, contrasted to nearby Seattle, (137 km/85 mi away to the southeast), with 970 mm (38.2 in) of rainfall, or Vancouver, 100 km (62 mi) away, with 1,219 mm (48 in) of rainfall. Perhaps even more dramatic is the difference in rainfalls on Vancouver Island. Port Renfrew, just 80 km from Victoria on the wet southwest coast of Vancouver Island receives 3,671 mm (144.5 in). Even the Victoria Airport, 25 km (16 mi) north of the city, receives about 45 per cent more precipitation than the city proper. One of the most striking features of Victoria's climate is the distinct dry and rainy seasons. Nearly two thirds of the annual precipitation falls during the four wettest months, November to February. Precipitation in December, the wettest month (109 mm/4.3 in) is nearly eight times as high as in July, the driest month (14 mm/0.55 in). During the summer months, Victoria is the driest major city in Canada.

Victoria averages just 26 cm (10.2 in) of snow annually, or about half that of Vancouver. Every few decades, Victoria receives very large snowfalls, including the more than 100 cm (39.4 in) of snow that fell in December 1996. On the other hand, roughly one third of winters will see virtually no snow, with less than 5 cm (1.97 in) falling during the entire season. When snow does fall, it rarely lasts long on the ground. Victoria averages just 2–3 days per year with at least 5 cm (1.97 in) of snow on the ground.
Pocatello Precipitation Annual Precipitation (inches) 12.1
HH is feet wet
Convection East of COC?? Or COC has reformed East???

Quoting sunlinepr:
Convection East of COC?? Or COC has reformed East???

Die! Tomas, Die!
510. Relix
Quoting sunlinepr:
Convection East of COC?? Or COC has reformed East???



COC is evident in microwave imagery
I did not know that Victoria BC qualified as a Mediterranean climate. I thought the summers were too cold. Learned something new.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Convection East of COC?? Or COC has reformed East???



Center of Thomas is moving S of due W, @ 14N 66.9W

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I did not know that Victoria BC qualified as a Mediterranean climate. I thought the summers were too cold. Learned something new.
That's whats makes me put up with the trolls on this site. There are some smart, interesting folks that frequent this blog.
Quoting sunlinepr:


The CoC is located at 14N 67W. Apparently moving due west or maybe even a little south of due west.
516. 7544
hi was this south west movement expected ? tia t

and could that be pre 93l right behind tomas ?
Recon showing steady 39mph surface winds

16.517N 65.350W
Sleepy Time...


Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I did not know that Victoria BC qualified as a Mediterranean climate. I thought the summers were too cold. Learned something new.


We hit 100 this summer... not fun
Normally its about 24-28 during the summer... we hit 40+ a few times this summer... way to hot.
Quoting EricSFL:


The CoC is located at 14N 67W. Apparently moving due west or maybe even a little south of due west.


Thanks...
Quoting 7544:
hi was this south west movement expected ? tia t

and could that be pre 93l right behind tomas ?


Expected and mentioned in the NHC advisories.
high winds shear hitting this storm storm!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


We hit 100 this summer... not fun
Normally its about 24-28 during the summer... we hit 40+ a few times this summer... way to hot.
That's weird, we usually get a few 100 degree days here but we only had a few mid 90' days.((be careful....we may wake the GW debate team with this line of conversation!:^)
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
high winds shear hitting this storm storm!!!
Hey! No CAPLOCKS!...very nice!
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
high winds shear hitting this storm storm!!!


The 300-400mb level is the same that plagued Richard. Shear accompanied by dry to the bone air undercutting the pretty cirrus outflow. Glad to see the NHC paying extra attention to the cross sections this time.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Expected and mentioned in the NHC advisories.


What was expected? The SW movement or the formation of 93L?
528. xcool
freeze for the Northshore on friday and satdayy
Quoting EricSFL:


What was expected? The SW movement or the formation of 93L?


The S of due west. I don't know anything of 93L.
Haiti can't catch a break. Weak or not, it's still going to rain like mad.

zzzzz
532. flsky
Quoting sunlinepr:

Can you tell me the time/date for this image. The text is too small to read.
Quoting flsky:

Can you tell me the time/date for this image. The text is too small to read.


Click "Ctrl +" on your keyboard several times to zoom in. Press "Ctrl -" to go back to the original zoom level.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
That's weird, we usually get a few 100 degree days here but we only had a few mid 90' days.((be careful....we may wake the GW debate team with this line of conversation!:^)


Up in Michigan the average max temperature during summer has been 5F over average, about 8F over average for the minimal temperatures (According to data taken from several sources). Pretty sure the great lakes have also had near record surface temperatures. Don't really mind discussing GW, as long as anyone involved supplies sources or something interesting to read. Keeps pointless comments out of the forums while still educating others.

On the other hand, convection seems to be on the rise for Tomas. Intensity and steering are in the air for now, a lot of things could happen.


535. WXTXN
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
high winds shear hitting this storm storm!!!

You should check out Levi's Vid for today... he explains the psudo shear
Quoting alfabob:
Up in Michigan the average max temperature during summer has been 5F over average, about 8F over average for the minimal temperatures (According to data taken from several sources). Pretty sure the great lakes have also had near record surface temperatures also. Don't really mind discussing GW, as long as anyone involved supplies sources or something interesting to read. Keeps pointless comments out of the forums while still educating others.

On the other hand, convection seems to be on the rise for Tomas. Intensity and steering is in the air for now, a lot of things could happen.



I'm shocked by this informative and reasonable responce.;^)
If you are driving down a road you have never been on before and you see a "curve ahead" sign, would you slow down?...If you suspected that human activity was damaging the environment....would you at least examine that activity so you could understand the repercusions?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I did not know that Victoria BC qualified as a Mediterranean climate. I thought the summers were too cold. Learned something new.

I know...I just read a whole article on Victoria....now I wanna go there.
Quoting WXTXN:

You should check out Levi's Vid for today... he explains the psudo shear


Good explanation of the current conditions, agrees with most of my previous observations. But I'm beginning to believe that there is somewhat of a block currently forming in the Atlantic, although weak on the eastern side. High pressure could dig in deeper, but beyond that there are too many dynamics to take into account. There's enough energy in those areas to support a cat 3, others a cat 5.

540. WXTXN
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
If you are driving down a road you have never been on before and you see a "curve ahead" sign, would you slow down?...If you suspected that human activity was damaging the environment....would you at least examine that activity so you could understand the repercusions?
Too bad for the rest of the world the Us has been at the wheel with a heavy foot for decades...
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
If you are driving down a road you have never been on before and you see a "curve ahead" sign, would you slow down?...If you suspected that human activity was damaging the environment....would you at least examine that activity so you could understand the repercusions?


I've been studying the repercussions for a while now, it's almost impossible to simulate the actual outcome (everything is based on deterministic chaos, a slight error in initial conditions means an exponential error in the end); but it is pretty obvious that we are headed in the wrong direction. Although I do know that the "bigger picture" in the eyes of a few is not what the majority wants; at least people are beginning to wake up from their fantasies.
Quoting WXTXN:
Too bad for the rest of the world the Us has been at the wheel with a heavy foot for decades...
Sad, but true. Challenges like switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources would be seen as opportunities to lead and change the world but these days politicians are more interested in staying in office rather that leading.
I actually work in R and D, to build a renewable energy industry in the U.S. We have the technology to start making a dent in fossil fuel consumption (at a resonable price) but lack the national will to put forth the effort.
France is the leader in nuclear energy and is 15 to 20 years ahead of us in advanced nuke reactor design. If we drag our feet we will be behind in alternative fuel technology also.

Link
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Sad, but true. Challenges like switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources would be seen as opportunities to lead and change the world but these days politicians are more interested in staying in office rather that leading.


Not to be against the "American Dream" but capitalism is not for a more clean energy source. It is about publicity and efficiency (and maybe a little bit of federal corruption to get ahead of the competition). If you really consider all of the factors in the production of current solar cells, cloud seeding, and any other geo-engineering related projects; it may in the end cause more damage then without.

I never really believed in cloud seeding, but after witnessing planes creating on/off/on/off/on streaks of "contrails" while flying into moderately organized updrafts (and also having a B.S. in physics to apply the correct principles), it becomes pretty obvious that these trails are not carbon nucleates with condensed water molecules. Maybe after watching the same plane loop around 4 or 5 times and creating the same "contail" in the exact location within an hour or so.

How much pollution does minning the silver and barium sulfate produce? how is the absorption and emittion spectrum changed from ordinary cloud particulates? How will this affect the population's health, while increasing energy demands and pollution?

For every solar panel made, do the raw materials create more GW effects than solve? Why are photovoltaic cells being advertised as the solution but they only last for 10 - 25 years? Is it possible that our "solutions" are in fact causing more damage then otherwise due to the nature of our society?

Our current system = act now don't worry make money

The solution is inform, act now, start caring.
1003mb (29.62 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 26.5°C (79.7°F) 125° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
Quoting alfabob:


Not to be against the "American Dream" but capitalism is not for a more clean energy source. It is about publicity and efficiency (and maybe a little bit of federal corruption to get ahead of the competition). If you really consider all of the factors in the production of current solar cells, cloud seeding, and any other geo-engineering related projects; it may in the end cause more damage then without.

I never really believed in cloud seeding, but after witnessing planes creating on/off/on/off/on streaks of "contrails" while flying into moderately organized updrafts (and also having a B.S. in physics to apply the correct principles), it becomes pretty obvious that these trails are not carbon nucleates with condensed water molecules. Maybe after watching the same plane loop around 4 or 5 times and creating the same "contail" in the exact location within an hour or so.

How much pollution does minning the silver and barium sulfate produce? how is the absorption and emittion spectrum changed from ordinary cloud particulates? How with this affect the populations health and cost more energy and pollution to be generated?

For every solar panel made, does the raw materials create more GW effects than solve? Why are photovoltaic sells being advertised as the solution but they only last for 10 - 25 years? Is it possible that our "solutions" are in fact causing more damage then otherwise due to the nature of our society?

Our current system = act now + don't worry + make money

The solution is inform, act now, start caring.
Lifecycle energy and waste management analyses can help answer the questions you pose. Cellosic, nuclear, and wind power are all parts of the puzzle but there is not a replacement for fossil fuel available, rather, we need to find efficient fuels that make sense for individual regions.
Quoting jonelu:

I know...I just read a whole article on Victoria....now I wanna go there.


I've lived in Victoria my whole young life (19 years now) and I love it here. It has everything one could ask for and then some, I'm never moving out of here.
Quoting victoriahurricane:


I've lived in Victoria my whole young life (19 years now) and I love it here. It has everything one could ask for and then some, I'm never moving out of here.


Go to bed..its 1139. if the Myth Busters were not having a special on channel 27, I would be asleep
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Lifecycle energy and waste management analyses can help answer the questions you pose. Cellosic, nuclear, and wind power are all parts of the puzzle but there is not a replacement for fossil fuel available, rather, we need to find efficient fuels that make sense for individual regions.


Well if energy management is out main concern, then I would be worried about the atmospheric windows; if we can absorb heat by means of infrared solar panels (future technology), then we can re-emit at another frequency which can penetrate the atmosphere (without being absorbed and re-emitted in the infrared region). But if we continue to add compounds into the atmosphere without knowing how they affect this "window", then we may create a very difficult problem to solve.

We just need to focus on keeping the polar regions cool, and adjusting a few issues to cut down on unhealthy environmental exposures. We "geo-engineered" the planet this far, I'm hoping that we can continue to change it into something which benefits everyone.
Ok, I am out of here for the night, Tomas is almost dead :)




Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I am out of here for the night, Tomas is almost dead :)




Thanks Orca, Good night.
Quoting alfabob:


Well if energy management is out main concern, then I would be worried about the atmospheric windows; if we can absorb heat by means of infrared solar panels (future technology), then we can re-emit at another frequency which can penetrate the atmosphere (without being absorbed and re-emitted in the infrared region). But if we continue to add compounds into the atmosphere without knowing how they affect this "window", then we may create a very difficult problem to solve.

We just need to focus on keeping the polar regions cool, and adjusting a few issues to cut down on unhealthy environmental exposures. We "geo-engineered" the planet this far, I'm hoping that we can continue to change it into something which benefits everyone.
I feel ya! But let's become carbon nuetral before wbe try to actually reduce solar energy adsorption. There are things we MAY be able to do in the future and things we CAN do today. I think we should start doing the things we CAN do.
I'm out. Happy November everybody!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I feel ya! But let's become carbon nuetral before wbe try to actually reduce solar energy adsorption. There are things we MAY be able to do in the future and things we CAN do today. I think we should start doing the things we CAN do.


Yea there is always a place to start at, it's just going to be a long road ahead.

I guess that actually was Tomas' LLC running away, but it's headed WSW right now. Will be interesting to see how things look in the morning, but for now I'm catching up on some sleep.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK (01U)
15:00 PM WST November 1 2010
======================================

At 2:00 pm WST (12:30pm Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2 (989 hPa) or 10.6S 97.5E about 190 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify Monday night as it moves southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will get gradually stronger during the day with periods of gale force winds likely by nightfall.

With the cyclone expected to curve around toward the west on Tuesday it is likely that it will be close to Cocos for an extended period and so gales should continue throughout Tuesday. If the cyclone passes close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=========================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.6S 97.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 12.1S 97.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 13.2S 95.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 13.9S 93.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================
The system was located using an SSMIS pass at 0135Z together with animated IR, NIR and VIS imagery. The location of the centre is not too clear so the uncertainty of the position has been increased to 60nm. Shear appears to be decreasing and a curved band may be developing. Attempts to apply a curved band pattern give a curvature between 0.5/0.8, resulting in a DT of 3.0. A shear pattern in the VIS imagery yields a similar result, but a shear pattern doesn't appear as applicable now. No recent SATCON is available.

The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates no adjustment hence DT is 3.0 and MET/PAT are 3.5. The final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 50 knots. Shear over the system appears to be diminishing, and the upper flow is markedly diffluent. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during the remainder of today with shear forecast to diminish further and an outflow channel likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Tuesday. The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP guidance do not weaken the system until later.
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned southward to (4.5degrees south of) WestSouthWest
from it's previous heading of (9.8degrees west of) WestSouthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~15mph(~27.8km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~20.7mph(~33.3km/h)
HurricaneTomas : Category2
31Oct 06amGMT - 13.8n62.4w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 982mb - NHC.Adv.#8A
31Oct 09amGMT - 14.0n62.9w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9
31Oct 12pmGMT - 14.0n63.3w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9A
Cat.1
31Oct 03pmGMT - 14.0n63.7w - - 90mph_(~144.9km/h) - - 986mb - NHC.Adv.#10
31Oct 06pmGMT - 14.2n64.3w - - 70knots.(~129.6km/h) - - 992mb - ATCF
31Oct 09pmGMT - 14.4n64.9w - - 75mph_(~120.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#11
TS.Tomas
1Nov. 12amGMT - 14.4n65.6w - - 55knots.(~101.9km/h) - - 997mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 14.2n66.5w - - 65mph_(~104.6km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#12
1Nov. 06amGMT - 13.9n67.1w - - 45knots . (~84.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF

Copy&paste 13.8n62.4w, 14.0n62.9w, 14.0n63.3w, 14.0n63.7w, 14.2n64.3w-14.4n64.9w, 14.4n64.9w-14.4n65.6w, 14.4n65.6w-14.2n66.5w, 14.2n66.5w-13.9n67.1w, cya, aua, 13.9n67.1w-12.48n69.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~12&1/2hours from now to QuadirikiCaves,Aruba

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Good night all looks like another system sneaking up on Pottery from the east 10n 50w.
560. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 08:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 8:08:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°45'N 67°29'W (13.75N 67.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 336 miles (541 km) to the SSW (196°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 32° at 27kts (From the NNE at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,540m (5,052ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:45:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) in the north quadrant at 8:21:30Z
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (9.6degrees south of) dueWest
from it's previous heading of (4.5degrees south of) WestSouthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~13.7mph(~22km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~15mph(~27.8km/h)
HurricaneTomas : Category2
31Oct 09amGMT - 14.0n62.9w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9
31Oct 12pmGMT - 14.0n63.3w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9A
Cat.1
31Oct 03pmGMT - 14.0n63.7w - - 90mph_(~144.9km/h) - - 986mb - NHC.Adv.#10
31Oct 06pmGMT - 14.2n64.3w - - 70knots.(~129.6km/h) - - 992mb - ATCF
31Oct 09pmGMT - 14.4n64.9w - - 75mph_(~120.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#11
TS.Tomas
1Nov. 12amGMT - 14.4n65.6w - - 55knots.(~101.9km/h) - - 997mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 14.2n66.5w - - 65mph_(~104.6km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#12
1Nov. 06amGMT - 13.9n67.1w - - 45knots . (~84.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 13.8n67.7w - - 50mph__(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#13

Copy&paste 14.0n62.9w, 14.0n63.3w, 14.0n63.7w, 14.2n64.3w, 14.4n64.9w-14.4n65.6w, 14.4n65.6w-14.2n66.5w, 14.2n66.5w-13.9n67.1w, 13.9n67.1w-13.8n67.7w, cya, aua into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.
Good Morning--checking in b/4 work-- hummmmmmmm is tomas dead or alive??
Quoting surfmom:
Good Morning--checking in b/4 work-- hummmmmmmm is tomas dead or alive??
Good morning. According to NHC he is still alive. Just taking a break for the next 24 hrs. We shall see.
morning, i'm thinking tomas going too far south for the trough to turn him north but that's just my take
There looks like something is south east of the islands again..hope not more trouble
Quoting juniort:
There looks like something is south east of the islands again..hope not more trouble
I see that too. According to the NHC surface maps looks like a wave. They sure don't need any more rain.
Quoting stormpetrol:
morning, i'm thinking tomas going too far south for the trough to turn him north but that's just my take
Morning. I was thinking the same thing.
Good Morning

Do solar panels produce more energy than it takes to produce them?

I have been watching all the models for days. Now with Thomas a TS not a Hurricane and still VERY far south, will it still make a complete 120-140 degree turn?
Looks quite interesting right now though!



Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I see that too. According to the NHC surface maps looks like a wave. They sure don't need any more rain.
Goodmorning, I do not know how Tomas can take another 24 hours of wind shear over a naked swirl without dissipating?
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, I do not know how Tomas can take another 24 hours of wind shear over a naked swirl without dissipating?
Wind shear tendency map shows shear reducing but IDK.
Quoting juniort:
Looks quite interesting right now though!



Nothing mentioned yet by the NHC but I think it needs to be watched. Looks even better than it did last night.
573. IKE
Met Service of Jamaica website
November 01, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… High Pressure Ridge across the western Caribbean.

Comment
The High Pressure Ridge will weaken as Tropical Storm Tomas enters the central Caribbean tomorrow.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy.
This Afternoon… Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across southern parishes and inland areas elsewhere.
Tonight …Becoming fair.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston…32 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay…32 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Tue… Partly cloudy morning across northern parishes but mainly sunny elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
Wed… Partly cloudy morning with isolated showers across sections of eastern parishes. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across sections of most parishes.
Thurs… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms with tropical-storm force winds.

Regionally… Tropical Storm Tomas continues to weaken this morning and at 4:00 a.m. was located 220 kilometres northeast of Curacao. Additional weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours but re-strengthening could begin late Tuesday.
kjb
Quoting IKE:
not much left die tomas die
577. IKE
29 days...
17 hours...
41 minutes and it's hopefully finished.
i hope the next 29 days go out on a quiet note i have had enough now and can wait till april to do it again
Tomas starts out yesterday as a 100mph hurricane and is knocked down to a 50mph naked TS this morning. How is he going to last another 24 hours under these conditions?
Met Service of Jamaica website
Monday, November 1, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

Bulletin #1 Tropical Storm Tomas

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA

Hurricane Tomas has weakened to a tropical storm but could re-strengthen near Jamaica later this week.

At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near Latitude 13.8 degrees North, Longitude 67.7 degrees West, or about 220 kilometres (135 miles) northeast of Curacao, Netherlands Antilles, or 1020 kilometres (630 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Tomas is moving towards the west near 22 km/h (14 mph) and this general motion, with a decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts, and additional weakening is forecast over the next 24 hours before Tomas begins to re-strengthen by late Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 280 km (175 miles) from the centre.

Satellite imagery shows that the heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Tomas is displaced east of the centre of circulation, indicating that the system is now in an area of strong wind shear that is preventing development. This should continue through tonight; however, Tomas is likely to remain a tropical storm south of Hispaniola until Wednesday and then turn towards Haiti as a hurricane on Thursday. The current forecast is for the centre of the system to pass over Haiti and head towards the North Atlantic Ocean on Friday.

Jamaica should feel impacts from the outer bands of the storm on Thursday as it passes some distance east of the island. Periods of heavy rainfall and strong, gusty winds could be experienced, mainly over eastern parishes and eastern waters. Some storm surge could also occur over coastal areas of northeastern parishes.

Fishers on the cays and banks are further urged to complete their preparations and be on the alert to evacuate.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests, especially fishers and other marine operators, should pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Tomas will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.
egt
582. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i hope the next 29 days go out on a quiet note i have had enough now and can wait till april to do it again


Amen.
morning
things have qupet here in st lucia, but we got a pounding from Tomas. the souther part of the island is totally cut off from he rest of the island. no access roads, and communication is almost zero. what is of grave concern to me is what looks like an area of disturbed weather to the southeast of the winwards. it appears there is some 850mb vort and a anticyclone to its south west. hope this not more trouble for us here in the islands
Good Morning...

Thanks goodness Tomas has been stripped out of all his associated convection... Hispaniola definitely doesn't need a HURR... I sure hope it keeps it up.
"Tomas" got his head cut off Halloween night! Not looking nearly so glum for Haiti at the moment. Hope it stays that way.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nothing mentioned yet by the NHC but I think it needs to be watched. Looks even better than it did last night.

I'm here in Barbados cant take another beating!
One more thing..The eastern Carrib isn't the friendliest place for TC's. The "John Hope" rule and all.
Quoting juniort:

I'm here in Barbados cant take another beating!
Hopefully it won't develop but looks like more rain on the way for you.
Keeping awareness up on Tomas is the responsible thing for the NHC to do. Even with him looking pathetic and in desperate need of convection around the COC!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON NOV 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHEAST OF CURACAO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


Tiny bit of convection beginning to flare up in the northern part of the coc. This was not here earlier.
I sorta expected a higher wind...

Bonaire, B1 (Airport)
Updated: 54 min 12 sec ago
82 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 1700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft

guys I say that Tomas will follow a path between the CLP5 and the BAMM model
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys I say that Tomas will follow a path between the CLP5 and the BAMM model
The CLP5 is not a model. It is like the xtrap so where ever Tomas goes of course he will follow it.
JB this morn.

MONDAY 7 AM

GFS IN LA LA LAND. PHASING ON EAST COAST MEANS EARLY SEASON SNOWS WEST AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS..TOMAS TO STAY SEPARATE. NEW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT 3 DAYS IN ATLANTIC BASIN.. WOULD MAKE 20.

The european, Canadian and JMA continue to insist on enough play between the northern and southern branch for a major development on the east coast Thursday that would mean accumulating snow up and down the Appalachians from Tennessee to New York State, a heavy rainstorm on the coast and a shot of cold that will end the growing season into the deep south later this week. The GFS has been behind since last week ( I think you can agree it has lost the duel at Pittsburgh for the 6-10 day period starting tomorrow, where I took the NOAA idea of normal in the Ohio valley to task, though in reality I was hammering the model which they bought... see previous videos on this) The Canadian is the most wound up, and looks overdone, though its ensembles are in line the GFS looks out to lunch, though to be fair many of the areas where I think snow will accumulate will see it, but from flurries. The Euro looks just right.

Tomas has weakened and without us having a strong tropical presence, the chance of it phasing to be pulled in is diminished. It should come back and become a hurricane again though but after hitting Jamaica later this week take off northeas through the Bahamas. However the season may not yet be over as far as naming with the new ITCZ disturbance at 10 north and 48 west likely to be "hatched" today as it moves west.

This front, no matter which model is right, will send a norther of major proportions into the gulf.

In the meantime, on the west coast, the non summer this year may be made up for again as a couple of 90 plus days can occur at LAX with a spike of heat. Again look at forecasts from last week for this area, with the modeling rushing the trough to the coast ( US models) and missing how hot it may get completely.

And in a year without summer, heat in the fall is a big deal out there

ciao for now ****
What a difference a couple days makes. This system is completely discoupled with the heavier t-storm activity well off to the east of the LLC. Strong southwesterly vertical shear has done a number on this thing, with considerable different wind profiles between the low and mid-level flow affecting Tomas below the outflow layer. Talk about a diagonal vortex profile.

598. IKE
Blue norther...Florida panhandle....Crestview,FL...


Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. North wind around 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 64. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 35.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 68.
I'm looking forward to that Ike! Sounds good!
600. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm looking forward to that Ike! Sounds good!


Kills off the bugs and spiders. About time to burn leaves again soon.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The CLP5 is not a model. It is like the xtrap so where ever Tomas goes of course he will follow it.


I thought the CLP was a model... It's a model of climatologically where a storm in that location would go.

???
oh look Convection is starting fire near the COC
slowly but surely the convection is catching up with the llc of tomas, he is not about to go peacefully into the night.
you are right FSUCOOPman stormwatcher maybe did not know that but yes you are correct the is only one of that what stormwatcher is talking about which is the XTRP
605. 7544
looks like we could see 93l soon but will it also follow tomas path ?
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I thought the CLP was a model... It's a model of climatologically where a storm in that location would go.

???
You may be right but not used for where it is predicted to go with a current storm and current conditions just where storms at this time of year have previously gone.
Looking at the WV loop, Tomas has moved into an area where the shear is lighter. However, directly ahead, the shear at this time is quite strong
Tomas got the heck sheared out of it... wow

from near cat 3 to poof in no time
609. 7544
now tomas looks to be going due south if he kkeps this up and resumes west again could this change his track further south and wst thru the carb tia ?
Quoting stormpetrol:
slowly but surely the convection is catching up with the llc of tomas, he is not about to go peacefully into the night.
Each frame has a little more convection at the coc. May not get a whole lot weaker and start to reorganize quicker than thought.
The WV loop shows that the convection now behind Tomas is diving down towards south america. The convection firing up is north of the coc which is still naked.



Navy now has it at 13.6N and 68.2W and 40Kts
615. P451
Shear and Dry Air have taken Tomas down. Good!

Still an outside shot he can cause damage down the road.... but we have to remember that problems can arise from flooding rains alone.

So let's hope this naked swirl is actually his death throws and that he won't regenerate.

Yesterday I had thought you can't discount a sudden surge in wind shear and dry air this time of year. I certainly did not expect this much but I did expect a little.

One last bit: The models, while Tomas had became a Cat 2, were forecasting weakening - some dramatic weakening. Most of us felt that was overdone including the actual forecasters.

Seems the models scored big this time around...and that's noteworthy since intensity is always a big problem to forecast especially when hostile environments are nearby.

Have a good day all, gotta get on the road.
I think the weakening phase of Tomas is over for now, though the COC lacks convection, it has a vigorous, potent and well defined LLC. I would also think the further south it goes, the more west Tomas will go before making that "turn" I suspect to see a shift in the models and track over the next 12 -24 hours, JMO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the weakening phase of Tomas is over for now, though the COC lacks convection, it has a vigorous, potent and well defined LLC. I would also think the further south it goes, the more west Tomas will go before making that "turn" I suspect to see a shift in the models and track over the next 12 -24 hours, JMO.
I am having visions of Paloma. Tomas reaching the sw Caribbean and beginning his NE turn while intensifying. What do you think ?
I think that this is good and bad with Tomas. Good if he just goes 'poof'. Bad that he is going South, now more of a chance he could miss the trough. Then if he regenerates, could be bad for CAYMAN ISLANDS and Cuba and even possibly the u.s.a.
Quoting IKE:


Kills off the bugs and spiders. About time to burn leaves again soon.
The GEM model has a huge dip in the jet, looks like a hairpin. And there is a low that pinches off near the coast of California. It could be a big factor in our weather down the road.Link
Hope to see tomas torn to shreads and gone before it gets to Haiti.
interesting site...
Link
623. ackee
just seem like the model are trending slowly more toward jamaica hope there wrong guess we see
Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Navy now has it at 13.6N and 68.2W and 40Kts
I hope this does not pan out..NAM..Link
Emergency relief agencies in Jamaica have been summoned to a meeting this morning at the Office of the Prime Minister regarding Tomas. Report on the radio.

I think this is an indication that Jamaica is taking Tomas seriously.

626. ackee
Quoting kimoskee:
Emergency relief agencies in Jamaica have been summoned to a meeting this morning at the Office of the Prime Minister regarding Tomas. Report on the radio.

I think this is an indication that Jamaica is taking Tomas seriously.

DO u think met office will tropical storm watch ?
Quoting kimoskee:
Emergency relief agencies in Jamaica have been summoned to a meeting this morning at the Office of the Prime Minister regarding Tomas. Report on the radio.

I think this is an indication that Jamaica is taking Tomas seriously.

I would bet that Jamaica is still wet. Another rain event would be calamitous to say the least..
Quoting hydrus:
I hope this does not pan out..NAM..Link
Sure hope not because if I am reading it right it goes directly over Haiti.
629. JRRP
Anyone else think that Tomas may miss that Trof that pulls him North? Could this be another CA storm afterall? (Hopefully not another Wilma type setup)
631. JRRP
Quoting ackee:
DO u think met office will tropical storm watch ?


They've started issuing advisories on Tomas. Go to their website, on the home page on the left side below NEWS are the bulletins.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/index.asp

ODPEM also has a website

http://www.odpem.org.jm/
Back later. Have a good one!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sure hope not because if I am reading it right it goes directly over Haiti.
And Tomas picks up energy from another low before striking Haiti...


Shear still 25-30mph over Tomas.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Shear still 25-30mph over Tomas.
Good morning Tampa..What are your thoughts about this possible snow event late in the week....
637. XLR8
New Blog
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned northward to (0.3degrees west of) WestSouthWest
from it's previous heading of (9.6degrees south of) dueWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreasedcreased to ~12mph(~19.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~13.7mph(~22km/h)
HurricaneTomas : Category2
31Oct 12pmGMT - 14.0n63.3w - 100mph_(~160.9km/h) - - 983mb - NHC.Adv.#9A
Cat.1
31Oct 03pmGMT - 14.0n63.7w - - 90mph_(~144.9km/h) - - 986mb - NHC.Adv.#10
31Oct 06pmGMT - 14.2n64.3w - - 70knots.(~129.6km/h) - - 992mb - ATCF
31Oct 09pmGMT - 14.4n64.9w - - 75mph_(~120.7km/h) - - 994mb - NHC.Adv.#11
TS.Tomas
1Nov. 12amGMT - 14.4n65.6w - - 55knots.(~101.9km/h) - - 997mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 14.2n66.5w - - 65mph_(~104.6km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#12
1Nov. 06amGMT - 13.9n67.1w - - 45knots . (~84.3km/h) - 1003mb - ATCF
1Nov. 03amGMT - 13.8n67.7w - - 50mph__(~80.5km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#13
1Nov. 09amGMT - 13.6n68.2w - - 40knots . (~74.1km/h) - 1005mb - ATCF

Copy&paste 14.0n63.3w, 14.0n63.7w, 14.2n64.3w, 14.4n64.9w, 14.4n65.6w-14.2n66.5w, 14.2n66.5w-13.9n67.1w, 13.9n67.1w-13.8n67.7w, 13.8n67.7w-13.6n68.2w, cya, aua, 13.6n68.2w-12.34n71.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to PuertoEstrella,Venezuela

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.