WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tomas' rains reach Haiti and Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on November 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas is headed north towards Haiti, and the northernmost spiral bands of the storm have already reached the tip of Haiti's southwestern peninsula and the eastern tip of Jamaica. It appears at this time that the most dangerous flooding rains of 5 - 10 inches will be confined to the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and that the earthquake zone where 1.3 million people live in makeshift shelters and tents will experience lesser rains that will cause serious but not catastrophic flooding. Satellite loops of Tomas show an average-sized tropical storm with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and low-level spiral bands. Upper-level outflow is good to the north, fair to the east, and poor elsewhere. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. The shear is due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest, and the shear is keeping most of Tomas' heavy thunderstorms pushed over to the northeast side of the storm. The areal coverage and intensity of the thunderstorms has grown this morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter is in Tomas this morning, and reported top surface winds of 52 mph at 9am EDT this morning with their SFMR instrument. Rainfall amounts as observed by the F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 8:05am were 0.5 - 1.0" per hour in a 100-mile wide region near the center of Tomas (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Rainfall rate for Tomas as observed by the F-16 polar orbiting satellite at 8:05am EDT Thursday, November 4, 2010. Heaviest rainfall rates in excess of 0.5 inches per hour (green colors) were confined to a 100-mile wide area near the core of Tomas. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Track and rainfall forecast for Tomas
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas north-northwestward at 6 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 10 mph late tonight. Heavy rains from Tomas will spread over all of Haiti's southwestern peninsula and eastern Jamaica this afternoon, then move into the rest of Haiti and western portions of the Dominican Republic by tonight. Satellite-based estimates of current rainfall rates from Tomas (Figure 2) yield predictions of 4 - 6 inches of rain falling over an 18-hour period near the core of Tomas, and we can expect that the heaviest rains from Tomas will fall over Haiti's southwest peninsula, and accumulate to 5 - 10 inches. According to this rainfall forecast, precipitation amounts over Haiti's earthquake zone will be much lower, perhaps just 2 - 4 inches. However, this forecast only uses the current intensity of the storm to come up with a rainfall forecast, and if Tomas intensifies today, rainfall amounts will be higher. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFDL model (Figure 3) agrees that it will primarily be Haiti's southwest peninsula that will experience dangerous rains in the 4 - 8 inch range, and that Haiti's earthquake zone is likely to see lower amounts of 1 - 4 inches. Rains of 1 - 4 inches in the earthquake zone are still capable of causing life-threatening flooding. Rains of similar magnitude killed 12 people there last weekend, and the soils are still saturated. However, potentially catastrophic flooding from Tomas is likely to be limited to Haiti's southwest peninsula, and we are not likely to see a massive flooding catastrophe killing hundreds of people in Haiti's earthquake zone. There will probably be some isolated regions of eastern Haiti and the western Dominican Republic that will see heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches; hopefully, the earthquake zone of Haiti will avoid being one of these spots of higher rainfall. I expect general rainfall amounts of 2 - 4 inches over eastern Jamaica and the western Dominican Republic from Tomas, with higher rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches likely over eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, southeastern Bahamas, and eastern tip of Cuba.


Figure 2. Predicted rain amounts for the 18-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Thursday, November 4, 2010, as forecast using satellite-derived measurements of precipitation rates. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 3. Predicted cumulative rainfall from Tomas as predicted by the 2am EDT (06Z) Thursday, November 4, 2010 run of the GFDL model. The model predicts no rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches (yellow colors) for Haiti. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

The computer models now agree that the trough of low pressure pulling Tomas northward will be strong enough to pull Tomas well north of the Bahamas, and the storm will not stall out near Hispaniola for many days as was being predicted by many of the models yesterday. Wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Sunday, resulting in a steady weakening of Tomas.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Tomas continues to have difficulty disentangling itself from an area of low pressure over the southwest Caribbean, and this low is acting to distort the circulation of Tomas into a more oval shape and make the circulation tilt with height. Recent satellite imagery suggests that the circulation of Tomas is becoming more circular and vertically aligned, though, and Tomas may be able to intensify into a minimal Category 1 hurricane before land interaction with Haiti disrupts the storm. Wind shear as predicted by the SHIPS model will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which should allow some modest intensification through Friday afternoon. NHC is giving Tomas a 41% chance of reaching hurricane strength by Friday afternoon.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update later today.

Yesterday's post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Another excellent post to follow up on yesterday's. Thank you. All Haitians will be in my thoughts...
Thanks Jeff...
With the very slow forward speed Tomas is making by Vortex plot... this could be a very long rain storm.
989. hydrus 2:15 PM GMT on November 04, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:

I tried it but message says it cannot open the webpage
Try this one more time. If not, go to the opening page of Dr.M,s blog and look at the NCEP on the model list. Its worth a look for sure..Link

Got it thanks, sure hope that does not pan out!
am i the only one looking at the models and see that this could be a very rough November for Haiti?
Thanks for the update, Doc.
Tomas Moving At 6mph Thats Not Good For Haiti At All.
Quoting java162:
am i the only one looking at the models and see that this could be a very rough November for Haiti?
yea you are the only one. sheesh
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

As long is there is a HH on-task, I do keep the HH one updated fairly often.
Quoting java162:
am i the only one looking at the models and see that this could be a very rough November for Haiti?


Sadly, every month is a very rough month for Haiti.
Thanks Dr. M; hoping for the best for the Island at this point....The lack of a "stall" near Haiti is good news if it pans out.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

As long is there is a HH on-task, I do keep the HH one updated fairly often.

NOAA planes seem to issue vortex messages very rarely
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


not trying to be cynical, but its their own fault


Ok, thats obviously the stupidest thing I have heard today. Might I suggest you read a little history about the area before you make that kind of remark.

Miss Piggy is now leaving Tomas.
Quoting divdog:
yea you are the only one. sheesh


this is a weather blog not a one for dumboss
Tomas will be going North NNE Within 12 hours

From 10 Am Key West weather discussion

THE LATEST AVAIL GFS...ECMWF ET UKMET ALL DEVELOP THIS PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH...WILL BRING THE
MAIN FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...REACHING THE KEYS AROUND DAYBREAK.

ALSO...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE GOING INTO AFFECT FOR ALL
ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A SOLID BEAUFORT FORCE 6.
BORDERLINE 7...BLOW EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.
The SHIPS intensity forecast (12z) still calling for very low shear through the next 24 hours along with a very rich, moisture laden mid-level atmosphere. This along with the high TCHP's in the area will provide the possibility for some strengthening in the short-term.

SHIPS (12z):

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 9
700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 77 75
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:25Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:49Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°3'N 76°8'W (16.05N 76.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 141 miles (227 km) to the SSE (162°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,083m (10,115ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 18° at 22kts (From the NNE at ~ 25.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 38 KTS E QUAD 1404Z
CNTR DROPSONDE HAD WINDS 085/43 AT SPLASH
ALL CONVECTION IN EAST SEMICIRCLE
The presence of very light southwesterly vertical shear at the mid-levels will aid to keep any dry air out of the system.

almost back to McDill in Tampa, dropped a whole bunch of dropsonde's
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


it is orca... I mean come on they have maybe the best natural port in the entire world! They can't become a major trade stop and tourism stop? Plus you do not see people still living in tents in Chile, after a much stronger quake... The government in Chile is so corrupt that no progress has been made in the past 50 years!


Enough on this issue when a hurricane knows no boundries........Pat Robertson made the same remark a few years ago about Haiti and was hammered by the world media......No need to go there on the eve of a potential natural disaster for the Island and innocent people including children.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


it is orca... I mean come on they have maybe the best natural port in the entire world! They can't become a major trade stop and tourism stop? Plus you do not see people still living in tents in Chile, after a much stronger quake... The government in Chile is so corrupt that no progress has been made in the past 50 years!


Many things don't grow on trees.. money is one of them. Their GDP is almost non existent.. so where is the money going to come from?

Look at your own Gulf states.. how many are still in trailers after Katrina... what has happened to Haiti makes Katrina look like a spring rain shower, when you compare stats.

Is that your own fault?

Tomas moving NW drops, one millibar per Hurricane
Hunters.
Tropical Storm TOMAS: Probability of tropical storm winds to 33 hours lead:

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Tomas moving NW drops, one millibar per Hurricane
Hunters.






Last Vortex report until the next HH comes on-task.
rainfall estimates sure are off... Picked up 1.29 overnight here but the radar shows only 0.50 over me... lol

At any rate, with the cold core upper low moving in place with the strong cold front, I expect some additional heavy rain. Thank God the record breaking dry streak in Pinellas county has ended with some much needed downpours!
and this guy is on a outbound easterly leg as we speak
Quoting Mixed:
Tomas Moving At 6mph Thats Not Good For Haiti At All.


He should speed up considerably as he approaches Haiti's latitude.
Time to go.........Prayers out for the Islands to be affected by Tomas and send money if you can for relief causes if the need arises.....Out.
12z Low Level (700-850mb) steering from CIMSS:

Tomas will soon accelerate as he will become more embedded within the southwesterly flow of the broad, multi-layer trough approaching from the NW.

06z GFS (250mb plot) 18 hours out.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Teal 70 should take off at 1500z.
Good morning Peeps,


This hurricane season still going?

This is indeed is very sad that the weakest area of soil(Tropics) is on this island of Haiti and that this storm is heading that way with all of its rain! The people running this country need to be removed like the trees were.......

Tomas is showing signs that he is waking up and I do believe the direct shear will lessen do to the fact that his movement will increase and be more uniform with the overall shear..... Its easier to run with the wind then against the wind. It would not surprise me to see a 85 mph hurricane late tonight.....

Remarks Section...

Release Location: 16.09N 76.08W
Release Time: 13:49:38Z

Splash Location: 16.12N 76.12W
Splash Time: 13:54:41Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 51 knots (59 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 35 knots (40 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 997mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 54 knots (62 mph)
Little help from the community please.

I've been following the storm and this blog closely since Monday. I'm supposed to be flying into Santo Domingo from New Jersey tomrrow morning, landing just after 11 am. I know Tomas is well west of Santo Domingo and the probability of TS wind there is extremely low.

Does anybody have any idea whether Tomas will disrupt the flight plan? Anybody have experience with commercial flights in the vicinity of TS/hurricanes?

Also, the rest of my family is flying in from Miami, landing within a few hours after me. Tomas is projected to strengthen to hurricane strength directly in their flight path.

Would their flights be more likely to go around Tomas, or wait until Sat am after he's weakened and cleared out toward the atlantic?

Any input is greatly appreciated as this is my family's first encounter with tropical cyclones.

Thanks
Quoting DiscGrab21:
Little help from the community please.

I've been following the storm and this blog closely since Monday. I'm supposed to be flying into Santo Domingo from New Jersey tomrrow morning, landing just after 11 am. I know Tomas is well west of Santo Domingo and the probability of TS wind there is extremely low.

Does anybody have any idea whether Tomas will disrupt the flight plan? Anybody have experience with commercial flights in the vicinity of TS/hurricanes?

Also, the rest of my family is flying in from Miami, landing within a few hours after me. Tomas is projected to strengthen to hurricane strength directly in their flight path.

Would their flights be more likely to go around Tomas, or wait until Sat am after he's weakened and cleared out toward the atlantic?

Any input is greatly appreciated as this is my family's first encounter with tropical cyclones.

Thanks


All airlines monitor the positions of tropical systems, and plan there routes to miss them by a wide margin, so you and your family will be fine to fly.
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
NOAA PLANE HAS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT...AND A
RECENT DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS AROUND 40 KT AND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE BELOW 997 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/7. A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WITH THE
CENTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW
CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE
TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING
AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS PART OF THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL FATE OF TOMAS ARE STRONGLY TIED TO ITS
TRACK. A NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD
TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. EITHER WAY...TOMAS SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE 120 HR FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND
THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 76.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 75.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 74.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.8N 73.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 71.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Of course it is, as a nation we failed to protect our citizens properly after a natural disaster. I am just saying it's not the rest of the worlds fault that Haiti is the only country in the western hemisphere not to make great national advancements in the past 50 years. It has to do with the leadership there, and nothing will change until there is absolute anarchy and the world will pressure the USA to intervene...

As sad as it is, I think you are right, to a degree. The USA should not be the only ones to intervene, but rather the entire western hemisphere should intervene. Haiti's problems derive from a very simple chain of socioeconomic problems (in this order).
Horribly corrupt government -
Poverty -
Lack of international help except in abject crisis -
Deforestation -
Natural weather patterns -
Repeat.

Its a vicious cycle, and until something significant is done to stop it, it will continue. What organizations like the Lambda fund and Portlight are doing is the right thing, but what they lack is scale.

Governments of the western hemisphere need to set aside their ideological differences, and all chip in to help the Haitian people. With that much support (logistically, financially, and educationally), Haiti has the raw ability to be come a Caribbean superpower. It has an incredible set of natural harbors, a prime location, an environment that screams "tourist trap" (if it was cleaned up and replanted), and the manpower available to make it all happen. They just need some propping up to get going.
Quoting DiscGrab21:
Little help from the community please.

I've been following the storm and this blog closely since Monday. I'm supposed to be flying into Santo Domingo from New Jersey tomrrow morning, landing just after 11 am. I know Tomas is well west of Santo Domingo and the probability of TS wind there is extremely low.

Does anybody have any idea whether Tomas will disrupt the flight plan? Anybody have experience with commercial flights in the vicinity of TS/hurricanes?

Also, the rest of my family is flying in from Miami, landing within a few hours after me. Tomas is projected to strengthen to hurricane strength directly in their flight path.

Would their flights be more likely to go around Tomas, or wait until Sat am after he's weakened and cleared out toward the atlantic?

Any input is greatly appreciated as this is my family's first encounter with tropical cyclones.

Thanks

Shouldn't be an issue. commerical flights routinely fly around severe weather, and will have quite a few options for flight paths.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Right just give them a free pass, they shouldn't have to work hard to improve their own nation, its not like they demanded independence from France, oh wait they did! In 1804! and in 206 years they have advanced how far? while in 234 years the US has done what? please...
Hey VA, Haiti was robbed by the French and by its own President Jean-Claude Duvalier. Most Haitians do believe in finding Jobs to support their families. I have a Hatian friend that came to the U.S. in 2001 with nothing! He now is a Manager at Home Depot and owns 2 restuarant businesses. The point that I'm trying to make is that Haitians are human beings just like you and I, They shouldn't be labled or sterotyped just because of their impoverished country. I challenge you to visit Haiti for a few months and try to survive.
woah a non tasked HH mission leaving from Miss? what for?
Assuming that Tomas shreds on the mountains, what's to stop the trailing West remnant from taking over and following Tomas as the next TS, on a similar path?
Yeah,nice thought about the USA intervening. And then when it does, we'll be blamed for intervening. Not of our business, who do we think we are, blah, blah, blah.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
Oh look it's that TD I was talking about and it seems to have some sort of eye feature. Looks like the NHC (and anyone else who was disagreeing with me) is wrong.

Quoting ACharleyVictim:
Hey VA, Haiti was robbed by the French and by its own President Jean-Claude Duvalier. Most Haitians do believe in finding Jobs to support their families. I have a Hatian friend that came to the U.S. in 2001 with nothing! He now is a Manager at Home Depot and owns 2 restuarant businesses. The point that I'm trying to make is that Haitians are human beings just like you and I, They shouldn't be labled or sterotyped just because of their impoverished country. I challenge you to visit Haiti for a few months and try to survive.


The french robbed them what? 200 years ago?
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see yet another uneducated, uncompassionate, and somewhat bigoted troll is making the rounds on this, the eve of what could very well turn out to be another very disruptive--if not deadly--event for hundreds or thousands of people. How sad. How inhumane. How very ignorant...

Huh? Who is trolling with Haiti?
Quoting natureobs:
Yeah,nice thought about the USA intervening. And then when it does, we'll be blamed for intervening. Not of our business, who do we think we are, blah, blah, blah.

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.


exactly
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Might as well say my name, and how am I being inhumane? For blaming Haiti for the impoverishment of it's own country? Ive donated to Portlight more than once, so why don't you learn something before you judge someone? Is it the USA's fault, everything else is our fault might as throw this one on their too.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The french robbed them what? 200 years ago?
The French colonize Haiti, nothing new, the same did the British in the U.S. what's the deal.And eventually the Children of "Europeans" known as "the Americans"did the same and conquer the "west" from the Indians. Nothing new under the sun, is simple History.
Quoting jeffs713:

Shouldn't be an issue. commerical flights routinely fly around severe weather, and will have quite a few options for flight paths.


Fantastic, thank you for the reply.

Obviously this is the last thing Haiti needs on top of its Cholera epidemic, but it sounds like the most vulnerable areas are not getting the heaviest rainfall. May be cold comfort for Haitians, but its better than the potential alternative.
The circulation center of Tomas has been exposed.
Your on the mark.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The french robbed them what? 200 years ago?

when Haiti delared its independance France sent a flotilla of armed ships to Haiti and told the government that they owed France today's equivilant of 19 billion dollars. It took them 126 years to pay it off. And, just to put a.personal spin on things to push aside the ideology for a moment; think about amputating what's left of a 7 year old boys leg without the benefit of pain medication. Its been I don't know how many months and I still hear it
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (8.9degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
from it's previous heading of (0.9degrees north of) NorthEast
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~9.3mph(~15km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h)
TD.Tomas
3Nov 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A
4Nov 03amGMT - 15.4n75.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#24
4Nov 06amGMT - 15.7n75.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1001mb - NHC.Adv.#24A
4Nov 09amGMT - 15.8n76.1w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#25
4Nov 12pmGMT - 15.9n76.0w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 998mb - NHC.Adv.#25A
4Nov 03pmGMT - 16.3n76.1w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26

Copy&paste 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, 15.0n74.9w-15.4n75.2w, 15.4n75.2w-15.7n75.8w, 15.7n75.8w-15.8n76.1w, 15.8n76.1w-15.9n76.0w, 15.9n76.0w-16.3n76.1w, peu, pot, pap, 16.3n76.1w-17.866n76.495w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~11hours from now to Jamaica between Pomfret and GreenWall

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 MPH

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Tomas continues to track further West........that is good for Haiti but, won't keep the rains from falling.
73. DDR
Its Raining again here in Trinidad,typical November moisture surge over the Windward islands,plenty rain to come.
Quoting Gustavike:
The circulation center of Tomas has been exposed.

TRue and if you follow it on the visible loop it is sure not moving north!
Dr. Nabb suggested that the convection is trying to wrap around.
From the NHC discussion
"ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT..."

I just love the use of the word "OR". I'm guessing here, but my translation of that is..."we have no idea where Tomas will decide to go" Jamaica or Haiti... flip a coin!

Sending a strong message to Tomas. You are not wanted or needed here. Go find someone else to bully!!! Might I suggest somewhere with cold water and plenty of shear!
WOW! TWC said it's moving NNE, pretty sad mistake.
This isnt going to be a storm too much longer unless something changes in a hurry. Anyone else see the low level circulation screaming westward away from the convection?? RGB loop below...

Link
Quoting ILwthrfan:
This isnt going to be a storm too much longer unless something changes in a hurry. Anyone else see the low level circulation screaming westward away from the convection??

I see that big time.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see yet another uneducated, uncompassionate, and somewhat bigoted troll is making the rounds on this, the eve of what could very well turn out to be another very disruptive--if not deadly--event for hundreds or thousands of people. How sad. How inhumane. How very ignorant...


Thank you Neopolitan for speaking up against appalling ignorance. I'm dumbfounded by it at times. I don't know how you can be a denizen of this blog or the world in general and not understand the dire plight of the people of Haiti. It's been an ongoing disaster for years as they struggle just to survive, even without the repeated weather and geological disasters that have happened to them.
82. 7544
looks like tomas still wants to go further west ?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
WOW! TWC said it's moving NNE, pretty sad mistake.


Could be a wobble but, weak storms generally don't wobble like Hurricanes do. Its actually moving more West than North currently. Its gonna change soon but its now gonna catch Jamacia and Eastern Cuba and not make landfall i don't believe over Haiti.

The graphic below should move further West i would think?


Quoting 7544:
looks like tomas still wants to go further west ?
do you think its going into the gom
81 Amen.

Its ridiculous that anyone would find a need to reveal such ignorance. This is an international site and all I hope is that people dont think that is representative of all Americans. Especially during a disaster. Who would be so simpleminded as to say such a thing now.
87. 7544
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do you think its going into the gom


not that far lol but maybe west of jamacia then turn but hes still drifting west at this hour imo
15z 700-850mb steering from CIMSS:

Help!
When I look at the water vapour loop and turn on th L/L, the storm appears to be moving NW. Is that actual movement or a trick of the eye?
My two cents worth: Debating and discussing the causes of and solutions to Haiti's problems is an entirely appropriate ongoing exercise...but right now the focus should be on alleviating immediate human suffering...when you're up to your ass in alligators it's pointless to spend too much time bemoaning the fact that your primary objective was to drain the swamp...
nicely put Press + 100
not trying to be cynical, but its their own fault

"For Haiti, this debt did not signify the beginning of freedom, but the end of hope. Even after it was reduced to 60m francs in the 1830s, it was still far more than the war-ravaged country could afford. Haiti was the only country in which the ex-slaves themselves were expected to pay a foreign government for their liberty. By 1900, it was spending 80% of its national budget on repayments. In order to manage the original reparations, further loans were taken out — mostly from the United States, Germany and France. Instead of developing its potential, this deformed state produced a parade of nefarious leaders, most of whom gave up the insurmountable task of trying to fix the country and looted it instead. In 1947, Haiti finally paid off the original reparations, plus interest. Doing so left it destitute, corrupt, disastrously lacking in investment and politically volatile. Haiti was trapped in a downward spiral, from which it is still impossible to escape. It remains hopelessly in debt to this day. "

"Most of the money lent to the Duvaliers found its way into private bank accounts. When Baby Doc fled, he took millions with him: estimates go as high as $900m. The debts incurred by the Duvaliers make up 45% of Haiti’s total current debt. None of the creditors finds the fact of their complicity a compelling argument for cancellation. Those creditors include the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Bank, the IMF and the governments of the US and France. "

"Even before the hurricanes hit, Haiti was in the grip of a food crisis. A year ago, when the price of rice soared across the world, Haitians began to starve. There were confirmed reports of people being reduced to eating dirt. Cookies made of mud mixed with vegetable oil were all they could scrape together."

40% of the population of Haiti is aged 14 and under.

not trying to be cynical, but its their own fault

Feel free to read up on the situation in Haiti:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6281614.ece
Quoting kimoskee:
Help!
When I look at the water vapour loop and turn on th L/L, the storm appears to be moving NW. Is that actual movement or a trick of the eye?


That is the actual movement, maybe even West of NW
99. 7544
tomas seems to be growing in size the coc is still going west if he can get 2 or 3 degrees west it could spare hati with the worst or maybe this is where he stalls ?
Quoting jurakantaino:
The French colonize Haiti, nothing new, the same did the British in the U.S. what's the deal.


If you think what happened in Haiti is "the same" as what happenend in the U.S., perhaps you should crack open a history book.
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is the actual movement, maybe even West of NW

Thanks. And he seems to be further west than predicted. Is the trough still going to pull him up?
The coc does look to have become uncoupled again and is moving west on 16N. The mass of convection though is moving towards Hispaniola.Is this illusory or do others see this?
Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, if you think it is so horrible to have that happen to other human beings and you are so affected and feel so much empathy why don't you get your butt off this blog, sell your worldly goods and rush down there and save them. Let me know how that works out----OK?

Why is it that anytime someone mentions that those privileged enough to have been born in the United States should show some caring and understanding for those who weren't so fortunate, he or she is greeted with angry shouts of, "If you care so much for other countries, leave this one!!!"

Seriously?

That's neither a humane attitude, nor a logical one, nor a compassionate one. It's just mean...and it's wrong.
I agree that most of the Haitian problems have to start and end with them doing something about it, and not waiting for others. Eating mud cookies is not an answer to a food crisis,
especially in the 21st century when there is food aplenty for all. LOGISTICS LOGISTICS the problem can be solved but they must want them solved and do all they can to help themselves. Now on that note wher in all of your experts opinion is Tomas going to end up?
From comment763 in the last blog
578 kimoskee "Please can you explain this method to non-mets. Storms don't travel in a straight line but I'm sure there's something to this that I don't understand."

I'm a non-met whose attitude toward the NHC has been "Trust but verify" since the HurricaneIke fiasco.
Take a look at my earlier answers to similar questions in blog1555page38comment1853 and in blog1573page12comment553
If you need clarification*, just ask.

* Hard to edit yourself cuz ya know what ya meant to say, and read what ya meant to say into your own writings as if that is what ya actually wrote.
108. 7544
wnw now growing in size
Tomas does appear to be moving... WEST.

Landfall in Jamaica appears in the cards.

Good news for Haiti. Shouldn't be so bad for Jamaica. He will go where he goes, but it is hard to imagine a better scenario than what is unfolding, realistically speaking.

I am thankful that things have progressed as they have. Seems someone is looking out for Haiti. I pray the trend continues. From the time he entered the Carib, the outlook has continually improved as far as Haiti is concerned, and that continues.

What could have been vs. what is unfolding is a true blessing. And, I believe he will go W of current track.







Quoting kimoskee:

Thanks. And he seems to be further west than predicted. Is the trough still going to pull him up?


Yes the trough is coming but, the Highs West side is not breaking down as fast a planned it appears. That is really no surprise tho, as i have stated before, Models tend to overplay troughs and underplay high pressure this time of year. This time tho the models have done a pretty dang good job.
Considering I have very little I did donate. Thankfully to portllight. As mega charities here held huge fund raisers and most the money never made it down.

You dont know what you are talking about.

BTW those would be American charities ripping poor people off.

Like I said I would be embarrassed to say what you did.
and I have donated to Portlight, so lay off...
VA I know you were not directing your donation question to me but I have donated through my company a significant amount of money and resources to the hatian people and i know it has done some good. I just wish there was more I could do.
Quoting Seastep:
Tomas does appear to be moving... WEST.

Landfall in Jamaica appears in the cards.

Good news for Haiti. Shouldn't be so bad for Jamaica. He will go where he goes, but it is hard to imagine a better scenario than what is unfolding, realistically speaking.

I am thankful that things have progressed as they have. Seems someone is looking out for Haiti. I pray the trend continues. From the time he entered the Carib, the outlook has continually improved as far as Haiti is concerned, and that continues.

What could have been vs. what is unfolding is a true blessing. And, I believe he will go W of current track.








Actually it would be bad for Jam too, but not as bad as in Haiti. We still have high and rising waters from Nicole and the fear is many more could become displaced.
(((((Amybaby!!!!!!!)))))
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ok, Im sure then you have volunteered plenty like I have then? right?


Really it doesn't give you a right to make moral analysis of a complex situation. That is all I have to say about this.
121. 7544
if tomas dosent turn soon hes going to make it to 80 or 81 west then get picked up
hey press....

;)
Quoting NRAamy:
Neap...I think it's just because you're annoying....

Sorry. If I were to wander onto the blog several times a day and shout SQUAWK!!!--a very helpful thing for all blog visitors, I'm sure--would that make me less annoying?

;-)
Thats what gets me shortchanging them then kicking them ion a disaster. Then stereotyping them all as criminals. What a statement.
Food for thought:

In speaking recently with someone intimately familiar with the goings on in Haiti, I found out that the farmers are having a very difficult time there. Why? They worked very hard to get produce to the market. No one is buying it. Why should they when they are getting free food from various charities. This is a fallout I never thought of. Another vicious cycle. How do you solve this? I don't know.

Personally, I don't think that VAbeachhurricanes (and I don't know who he/she is)meant to insult the people of Haiti, just the government.

I think things can easily become misconstrued on a blog, where people write quickly and don't have the luxury of re-reading to make sure they wrote what they meant. Nuances that can change meanings in a personal conversation, can easily be lost when written.

I wouldn't be so quick so shoot from the hip and judge someone as "mean or ignorant." You run the risk of being like the pharisees that pray loudly at the front of the temple so eveyone can hear how "good" they are.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sorry. If I were to wander onto the blog several times a day and shout SQUAWK!!!--a very helpful thing for all blog visitors, I'm sure--would that make me less annoying?

;-)


Thankfully I see none of that. I see I need to adjust the filter up again though. Good day decent people.

Next time some of you do ANONYMOUS charity work realize its not polite or decent to use it to disparage the less fortune.

You were not meant to profit or achieve any success from it.

I think we can see now part of why why Haiti started down and stays down.
The center of Tomas has become exposed on the 16 degree N lat line just to the West of 76

Close up

TWC said "Island-Nation of Haiti".
135. 7544
whats pushing tomas more west ? tia
I see Tomas moving due west?
can't stay on now
Besides raising the mosquito population (standing water), what sort of damage might Tomas inflict upon GTMO should it veer that way?
Quoting kimoskee:

Thanks. And he seems to be further west than predicted. Is the trough still going to pull him up?

I wrote earlier this morning the from what i could see the trough had split over western cuba and hadn't dip as far south or fast as thought!
Quoting SQUAWK:

You are obviously not capable of understanding the message. It is not "get out of here," it is that all this lip service is just that - lip service. If you feel so badly about the situation rather than sit back wringing your hands and feeling horrible - do something! Make a big donation to Portlight, get off your butt and go down there and help them. No, it is far more satisfying to sit at the computer in your nice warm, dry house and play "holier than thou" to the not so politically correct remarks and badmouth them for not crying the false tears. Yeah, right.

I don't normally talk about my personal life, but let me clue you in: I've lived in South Florida for a number of years. South Florida, as you may know, is home to many Haitians. I've worked with Haitians. I've worked for Haitians. I've been to Haiti five times now, all five times for humanitarian purposes, including helping to rebuild an orphanage just outside Cite Soleil, and working a brief stint at the Jude Anne obstetric center (and all those trips were self-funded). I've given thousands of dollars over the years to MSF in Haiti (Doctors Without Borders). I've developed websites for Haitian charities; even now I'm in talks about a large web development project with a large NGO that deals with Haiti's many problems. My brother-in-law and his family adopted a Haitian orphan, and that child has spent almost as much time with me as he has with his adoptive parents. And so on. And so forth.

Look, Haitians look different from most of us here, and they talk differently, too. We get that. But in reality, while Haitian culture is far removed from ours here in the States, at the heart of the matter they're all humans--mostly good-hearted ones--just trying their best to deal with the horrendous cards they've been dealt. And they mostly just want what we all want: a secure home, a soft bed, honest work, and a fed and happy family. I'm not sure why or how some don't or won't see that, but that makes it no less true.
Since 98% of Haiti is deforested, why don't we chip up tree debris in Florida and send them over in 50 lb bags? If the Haitian people have plenty of wood chips to cook with then trees can be planted and grow to maturity. I think an organization like Portlight can spearhead a project like this.
Quoting stormpetrol:

I wrote earlier this morning the from what i could see the trough had split over western cuba and hadn't dip as far south or fast as thought!


Hmmm... so what's the NHC saying? Track change coming at 2pm?
TOMAS

Rainbow Image

The 06Z Late Cycle NHC model tracks earlier Clustered run

We gots us an early slight risk... but it's a sloppy setup.



Meh.
Portlight will send in to Haiti any educational tools from Pencils and Paper to Computers if one can donate it.

Feel free to make a difference .
Quoting FLdewey:
We gots us an early slight risk... but it's a sloppy setup.



Meh.


when was this issued?
Haiti began this year with the horror of the January 12 earthquake. It appears fate is ending the year by dealing Haiti another terrible hand.

Tomas is forecast to come ashore in Haiti as a hurricane within the next couple of days. With over 1 million people still living in tents and under tarps in makeshift camps, the potential for catastrophic devastation is great.

As you know, we have been delivering aid and services since the earthquake. And, with your help, we will be there to serve in the aftermath of this disaster.

Our focus is twofold: to facilitate the evacuation and shelter of people with disabilities...and to deploy our mobile kitchen to feed people in the days after Tomas moves through.

It would be understandable if you are tired of hearing about Haiti from us. It has been a brutal year for Haitians and the need has been great.

But try to imagine how tiring it must be to have lived the last nine months in a filthy and dangerous camp, with the added burden of negotiating life with a disability...or a child with a disability.

Our mission is to serve the unserved, under served and forgotten people in their hours of greatest need. The people of Haiti...especially people with disabilities there...are the most marginalized people in this hemisphere.

And we are committed to serving them in a way which eases their suffering.

So...please pray for the people of Haiti.

And please make a financial contribution, if you can, to support our efforts there.

Also, please forward this to your e-mail lists, post to your Facebook page etc. and let others know of the need in Haiti and our work there.









Help Portlight with its push for "Xmas in Haiti"







CHRISTMAS IN HAITI

We began this year making a difference in Haiti in the months following the January 12 earthquake. Your contributions provided food, shelter, and water, as well as medical care, equipment and supplies for thousands of Haitians. We cut through bureaucratic red tape and made a significant direct impact.

But it's important to remember: there is still much suffering in Haiti. Over one million people, including tens of thousands of children, are still living in makeshift tent camps. Hope is scarce.

So...let's bring some Holiday Joy to Haiti's children. Let's end this year as we began it: making a difference in Haiti.

What: Christmas in Haiti It is a simple concept. We want to provide Christmas presents for Haitian children living in camps.

When: Over the next two months.

Where: Refugee camps in Haiti

Who: As many children in as many camps as we are able to serve.

How: Well...that's up to you. A contribution of $20 will provide a present for one child. The extent of our reach will depend upon the budget we raise. Our dream is to serve thousands. We'd love to arrange for Santa to visit some of the camps.

Please remember the children of Haiti this Christmas. Please support Christmas in Haiti with your thoughts, prayers...and, of course, your financial contribution.

You can use the PayPal button at www.portlight.org

Or you can make your check payable to: Portlight Strategies, Inc.

and send it to us at: 2043 Maybank Charleston SC 29412

Also....PLEASE share this message...forward it to your e-mail lists, post it to your Facebook page, Tweet it...whatever it takes to spread the story of our work.

Thank you for your faith in these efforts!!!!






A look back to Portlights 2008 Xmas Party for the Bridge City,Texas residents post Hurricane Ike.

We can make a difference in Haiti as well.


Thanks to all who made this possible 2 years ago.





Quoting TampaSpin:
The real root of Haiti's problem is an over populated country that is mostly uneducated to help themselves. Until the young in that country are educated that country will continue to suffer. Sad to think that a country like Haiti even exist in the Northern Hemis. WHY? Its very simple EDUCATION of the young is not important!


Sad to think that countries with problems like Haiti exist in any hemisphere.

And I hope that Tomas goes by quickly enough to prevent cataclysmic flooding.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Since 98% of Haiti is deforested, why don't we chip up tree debris in Florida and send them over in 50 lb bags? If the Haitian people have plenty of wood chips to cook with then trees can be planted and grow to maturity. I think an organization like Portlight can spearhead a project like this.


They are already trying to replant. In fact in the last week some volunteers got to gether to make "clay seed balls" which are used for restoring the forest in Haiti.
Way to go UK!

Link
and you know what happens when we assume....

;)
Quoting Jeff9641:


when was this issued?

1219 Eastern... nothing exciting. Nader 2% hail 5% and winds 15%.

Some decent convection moving out of the gulf, but shear is pretty dull.

At least we'll get some water.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP
AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS FL TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED 60-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. ENHANCED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL HELP TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED. STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA TO SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CORES.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


All of it is anonymous! I never talk about my donations, until people such as you... attack me for saying a factual statement, If you don't want it brought up, do not attack people, and expect no push back.


it's not worth your time man... he's been attacking people as long as I remember seeing him here.




ReliefWEB is a Great source for info and we at portlight use it often to stay abreast of Calamity World Wide.

Its a good one to bookmark
weak, ill defined Tomas is gonna rain on Jamaica for now.
IFRC launches appeal to scale up cholera response in Haiti



Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Date: 04 Nov 2010


The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has launched an appeal for 6,322,842 Swiss francs (USD 6,413,920 or EUR 4,593,052) to scale up its response to the cholera outbreak that has killed more than 440 people in Haiti since the week of 18 October.

The funds raised by the appeal will support the Haitian Red Cross Society and the Dominican Red Cross reach 345,000 people in Haiti and 150,000 people in the Dominican Republic over a six-month period. The operation will focus on the provision of clean and potable water, sanitation activities, health and hygiene promotion, and relief, and curative health services.
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:


They are already trying to replant. In fact in the last week some volunteers got to gether to make "clay seed balls" which are used for restoring the forest in Haiti.


In the past two decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has planted some 60 million trees, while an estimated 10 to 20 million of these are cut down each year, according to the USAID director in Haiti, David Adams


This is from the doc's blog yesterday. Planting them does not help. I kinda like the idea of sending them charcoal to cook with so they can let the trees grow.
Quoting tornadodude:


it's not worth your time man... he's been attacking people as long as I remember seeing him here.


Thats incorrect. He asked brought it up specifically and disparaged the country.

He tried to defend his disparaging the Haitian situation with his charity work.

DURING A DISASTER.

Actually I rememberer you behaving that way when someone was trying to discus warming in here reasonably. Thats is when I became involved - whey you and other non mets and non climatologists thought your opinion was better than reasoned discussion.

I was coming here WAY before I became active in the community 2006. Probably before most of the employees. I expect to see reasonable discussion on this sites blogs and not embarrassing anti reasonable opinions.
Quoting TampaSpin:
If Obama would cut his trip one day short, the US could donate $200 million Dollars to Haiti as that is the daily cost for his trip. I wonder if that would help some?
\

Obama's trip does NOT cost $200 million dollars a day or anything close to that.
Quoting tornadodude:




Yeah its been boring this fall no doubt, but if you like winter La Nina may give us a little extra snow this season...lol
11:00 am local time radar image of Jamaica (480 km range)
Wow. Between the made up cost of Obama's trip to India and the stupid (even racist) comments about Haiti....this blog is more stupid than usual today.
Jamaica
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Yeah its been boring this fall no doubt, but if you like winter La Nina may give us a little extra snow this season...lol


haha im fine with that
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:


They are already trying to replant. In fact in the last week some volunteers got to gether to make "clay seed balls" which are used for restoring the forest in Haiti.


Those
are really cool. I am glad they are mixing the technique with other reforestation methods.
Time: 17:05:30Z
Coordinates: 17.6N 70.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.7 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,689 meters (~ 25,226 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 376 meters (~ 1,234 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 244° at 5 knots (From the WSW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: -16.0°C* (~ 3.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
HHs well on the way to TOmas again! Will be interesting to see what they find!
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
\

Obama's trip does NOT cost $200 million dollars a day or anything close to that.


Yes it does.......just posted a link and its very easy to find the facts. So, if was to cut the trip 1 day short as a TAX Payer i donate a my share to Haiti.
Quoting Patrap:


O Lordy,,,


LOL


Bro, we gotta lightn the blog with a little bit of humor......LOL
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Ahhh, so you are the opinion police, all I did was criticize the Haitian government. You attacked me saying I didn't care, am ignorant, and that I called them all criminals. None of which are true.


I am used to trolls disparaging me - and that is their preferred technique - "make all arguments dependent on the moral shortcomings of your opponent." Whatever I don't care.

Why dont you actually do some research and not use wide sweeping negative stereotypes to make an argument. I think that would be a better way to say what you feel you need to.

Still the timing is really bad for this kind of thing.
Humor iz da best medicine.

I keep some stashed always for sure here.
A Fall day with a cold snap the next couple of Nights along the Gulf Coast.


Current Conditions

Wind Advisory in effect from 7 am this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening...

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 39 sec ago
Clear
67.7 F
Clear
Humidity: 47%
Dew Point: 47 F
Wind: 7.1 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 19.2 mph
Pressure: 29.88 in (Steady)
Quoting lickitysplit:
Wow. Between the made up cost of Obama's trip to India and the stupid (even racist) comments about Haiti....this blog is more stupid than usual today.


I havent seen a racist comment
194. 7544
tomas is getting a long tail
Quoting TampaSpin:
The cost of Obama%u2019s trip to Mumbai is going to be%u20261 day ago
"That is not $200 million for the trip. That is $200 million a day. He is going to have 40 Air Force aircraft, including both 747 aircraft that we typically know as Air Force One.

www.marketwatch.com/Community/groups/us-politics/topics/cost-obamas-trip-mumbai-going



A completely baseless fabrication. That's what happens when sources of "news"--Limbaugh, Drudge, MarketWatch, et al--fail to do even the most basic fact checking. The initial figure came from an unnamed "top official" in an Indian newspaper.

(In case you're wondering, if there really were 3,000 people going and the US picked up the tab for all of them, that would be $66,000 per person per day...not a likely figure.)

Don't believe everything you read. Please...
Quoting 7544:
tomas is getting a long tail


That was feared most not the wind. The amount of moisture trailing Tomas is gonna be really bad. I don't think 15" or even 20" of rain in the higher mountains of Haiti are out of the question.....the VAlleys are gonna be in trouble where most of the tent cities lie. LOoks really bad coming.
Well, although my friends are laughing at me, I've boarded up my laundry. There's only a grilled gate there, and that's where the dogs go if we get any significant rain or wind.

It's very still outside. But you can still hear birds. Not that overcast either. Oh well... whatever will be, will be.

What for lunch today? Any mannish water? LOL


Quoting TampaSpin:
The cost of Obama’s trip to Mumbai is going to be…1 day ago
"That is not $200 million for the trip. That is $200 million a day. He is going to have 40 Air Force aircraft, including both 747 aircraft that we typically know as Air Force One.

www.marketwatch.com/Community/groups/us-politics/topics/cost-obamas-trip-mumbai-going



LOL...your "evidence" is something that someone posted in a comments section...wow, that is some powerfully convincing evidence there.
201. Jax82
Very cool RAMSDIS animation of current Tomas. Intervals are 15 mins opposed to 30 min GOES floaters. You can see his swirl easily with most of the convection to the East. Check it out ya'll.

Tropical RAMSDIS Floater
Quoting remembercleo:
Jamaica


Nope....about the same, sadly.
anyone confirm this !!!. I just saw the exposed center of Tomas moving southeast !!!
Quoting asgolfr999:


Nope....about the same, sadly.

Huh?
Quoting lickitysplit:
Wow. Between the made up cost of Obama's trip to India and the stupid (even racist) comments about Haiti....this blog is more stupid than usual today.


Nope, about the same sadly!

makes more sense when I quote the correct post...lol
Tomas crawling due west.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
anyone confirm this !!!. I just saw the exposed center of Tomas moving southeast !!!


yes, the shallow, weak center is being guided by surface winds (from the NW)
Quoting stormpetrol:
Tomas crawling due west.


It seems like is moving southeast .
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
anyone confirm this !!!. I just saw the exposed center of Tomas moving southeast !!!


Its not moving barely at all, the sat picture is shifting NNW the whole time, so it is deceiving! had to watch it for a while to see that.
Quoting TampaSpin:



And i am suppose to believe that article you just posted.......ROFLMAO

That "article" was from the completely non-partisan and highly-respected FactCheck.org, a program run by the Annenberg Center. Have a look at the site: it dissects, explains, and debunks the lies being told by both sides.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
anyone confirm this !!!. I just saw the exposed center of Tomas moving southeast !!!

You looked at the RAMSDIS floater I assume, the way it moves would give that illusion Tomas is nearly stationary or crawling along 16N/76.4W moving due west IMO.
Quoting remembercleo:


yes, the shallow, weak center is being guided by surface winds (from the NW)


or maybe is trying to form a new center to the north of that one ?
Looks like some convection is trying to wrap around to the west side, can anyone confirm.
Quoting stormpetrol:

You looked at the RAMSDIS floater I assume, the way it moves would give that illusion Tomas is nearly stationary or crawling along 16N/76.4W moving due west IMO.


oh well. visually looks like it's moving southeast but maybe you are correct.
People let's get back to the weather before admin starts zapping us.

Need an update for Jamaica. What's Tomas up to?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


It seems like is moving southeast .

se



Most current imiage.
is Thomas crazy?
Good thing recon is almost there, will give us answers.
Quoting kimoskee:
People let's get back to the weather before admin starts zapping us.

Need an update for Jamaica. What's Tomas up to?
Good Point. It was Dr. Masters' last blog that referred to the Haitian people and their suffering.
I think we have plenty of internal problems in America that the money should be spent on before we even begin to try to tell someone how to run a country
i think there is a seperate center to the SW. but Tomas is cranking N toward Jamaca in the Satellite animation as of 5:31 UTC.
My obs.
Last 2 frames show SE drift of exposed center
Link
I live in the northeastern suburbs of Kingston, Jamaica - interestingly the weather here is still holding - partially overcast, and a bit of light drizzle, but that's it - no heavy rains, no breeze of any kind, mostly sunny for the last 2 days.

Quoting Neapolitan:

A completely baseless fabrication. That's what happens when sources of "news"--Limbaugh, Drudge, MarketWatch, et al--fail to do even the most basic fact checking. The initial figure came from an unnamed "top official" in an Indian newspaper.

(In case you're wondering, if there really were 3,000 people going and the US picked up the tab for all of them, that would be $66,000 per person per day...not a likely figure.)

Don't believe everything you read. Please...



+1

Thank you. I anticipate seeing those trip "facts" again soon in a chain email and I will plagiarize you shamelessly in my response.
Tomas has stopped heading west... could it be stalling or is it ready to turn east or northeast?
Quoting burrokeet:
I live in the northeastern suburbs of Kingston, Jamaica - interestingly the weather here is still holding - partially overcast, and a bit of light drizzle, but that's it - no heavy rains, no breeze of any kind, mostly sunny for the last 2 days.


Due to the fact that the convection is still off shore, local mets expect things to deteriorate in the late evening.
I see i've been missing all the fun on this blog...NOT!
Now to what I am here for.....is Thomas doing his crazy thign again?? Which way is it heading now? Or is it my eyes playing tricks on me?
2:00 PM EDT Thu Nov 4
Location: 16.4°N 76.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

N at 7mph, not saying it won't but I see no evidence of that now!
Quoting remembercleo:
Last 2 frames show SE drift of exposed center
Link


yes,looks like that but it's alomost stationary.
Quoting thegoldenstrand:
Tomas has stopped heading west... could it be stalling or is it ready to turn east or northeast?

He has stopped and will begin to pivot NNE any minute now as the southwesterly flow of the deep multi-layer trough to the west of him picks him up.
238. myway
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I did a little searching, and cannot confirm or deny this "$200 million per day" claim. What is sad, is that the cost probably is at least 10 million per day which most likely could be better spent elsewhere instead of stimulating the Indian economy at the expense of the American taxpayer. I'm sure Haiti or Jamaica would appreciate that at least some of that money in foreign aid at the expense of the American taxpayer.


In a June 2004 AP article it referenced that Airforce One cost $56800.00 per hour to fly. They also have to send the back up which is a twin of Airforce one. Not sure how many miles round trip it will be. Add in security, aides, limos, support items etc. it will be a lot of money. All presidents of the modern era have made trips that have cost the taxpayers plenty. It goes with the job, whoever holds the office.


Been watching this for a while but, a new low is developing in the SW Caribbean...its coming together rather quickly.
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...RAINBANDS OF TOMAS MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Quoting stormpetrol:
2:00 PM EDT Thu Nov 4
Location: 16.4°N 76.2°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb

N at 7mph, not saying it won't but I see no evidence of that now!


evidence of what ?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
DEPRESSION BOB05-2010
17:30 PM IST November 4 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Pre-cyclone Watch Is In Effect

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB05-2010 over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lays centered near 8.5N 90.0E or about about 950 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1200 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.

3 minute sustained winds is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Animation of the past 24 hours INSAT imageries indicate increase in deep convection and cloud mass becoming more compact. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal between 6.0N to 12.0N and east of 83.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is - 80C.

It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by Sunday evening.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hour shear tendency of vertical wind shows decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature is 30-32C and the ocean heat content over southeast Bay of Bengal is more than 100 kj/cm2, which is favorable for intensification. However, ocean heat content is less than 100 kj/cm2 over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence around the system is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 13.0N at 200 HPA level.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


evidence of what ?

Tomas moving SE
16.4N/76.2W??? i must be blind or those are old and early, and erroneous at the same time.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


evidence of what ?

no evidence of a northward movement, if anything in the last few loops it has drifted SE, JMO of course, HHs will confirm the location soon!
Does anyone know why the HH have like clipped land twice? like going in a wave motion to Tomas?
Any chance Tomas does not head north?
NNE direction for Tomas will begin to occur now.

Click For Animation
252. Jax82
We're thirsty.

If you look carefully, you can see a slight indent around 14.5N, 79.5W (if you watch the loop, it is obviously a vortex moving N (360 degrees). This is why Tomas is behaving the way he is, there are competing vortices. Conditions are somewhat favorable for development if Tomas moves north, it was at 1006 mb and 35 mph winds a day or two ago. Could even be a TS, wish HH would also investigate this area.

As for the 200 mil USD/Day G-20 trip.
That is more than the 190/Day for the full Afghanistan War effort with more than 40 aircraft and 10's of thousands of troops.
White House denies the cost estimate, quite credibly.

Usually when TS systems stall the models go crazy, but they seem more in agreement now rather than less.

P.S. The dry side of Florida on that drought map has gotten rain the last two days.
a little loop before it heads NE and intensifies? that definitely could be.
Quoting kimoskee:
Need an update for Jamaica. What's Tomas up to?


Ditto that!!!
Hey we haven't heard from Levi today. No tropical tidbit.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
NNE direction for Tomas will begin to occur now.

Click For Animation

I see due north in that animation.
Quoting negriltracy:


Ditto that!!!


Hey you! What did you decide to do about the window? Did you put up the ply?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I see due north in that animation.

Be sure to watch the next couple animations. His northwesterly component has ceased and he will begin to pivot NNE any minute as the southwesterly flow of the deep multi-layer trough to the west of him picks him up. It will be subtle (perhaps only at 5 or 10 degrees), but east of due north (360 degrees) should be in the works nonetheless.


There is some Convergence in the SW Caribbean but, no Vorticity yet. That will be coming soon.
Tomas weakens and area to the sw strengthens..Link
Raw day here in Central VA

Quoting Jax82:
We're thirsty.



I feel ya there

I cant see Tomas intensifying much before reaching Haiti with an exposed center like that.

And that source you posted for the 200 million a day was an unsourced comment in a newspaper. In other words, no backup and no validity.

But I'm just dropping it---anyone who thinks that some random unsourced comment is a valid source of info is not someone I can have a discussion with. And politics in this blog is pretty pointless anyway.
Quoting remembercleo:
Tomas weakens and area to the sw strengthens..Link

Define "weakens" because the NHC hasn't said it weakened.
With Tomas's rapid motion through Haiti and also not reaching hurricane strength I think the chances of a five figure death toll are lower. I was worried earlier that Tomas would be the deadliest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin.
I know everyone is focused on Tomas but just thought I would let you know that Costa Rica is suffering from flooding and mudslides resulting in several people being buried alive.
Rain moving in
Time: 18:06:00Z
Coordinates: 17.6333N 75.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,520 meters (~ 4,987 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.0 mb (~ 29.68 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 128° at 33 knots (From the SE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.3°C (~ 61.3°F)
Dew Pt: 4.5°C (~ 40.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
271. Jax82
Rain Rain Rain!

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Define "weakens" because the NHC hasn't said it weakened.
less organized, increasingly sheared, warming cloud tops..
allowing area to sw to become favored for development due to its less hostile environment
Can't say I've ever seen a center do that before. Dart of to the NW then quickly back SE.
Quoting kimoskee:


Hey you! What did you decide to do about the window? Did you put up the ply?


Didn't put the ply up but have the house secured and all the patio furniture brought in etc
boards can go up if wind increases or storm turns more to us, it is only 4 picture windows on top balcony that is under the eaves :)
how are you doing? we are having a party tonight I think?!?!?!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Can't say I've ever seen a center do that before. Dart of to the NW then quickly back SE.

Yep, I noticed that, Tomas "The Head Scratcher"
280. myway
Tornadodude....where are you located?
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, I noticed that, Tomas "The Head Scratcher"



I'd say great news so far today for the Earthquake zone in Haiti but, I'd be foolish not to think I may be wrong by the next update, lol. I wouldn't take any chances here, he seems to be an oddball.
Quoting tornadodude:


I feel ya there


Me too, and it's only expected to get worse here. Yay?

The Pacific is Cold

Sure is a lot closer to Jamacia than what was originally thought. Maybe even closer yet me thinks!
The southern drought is bad. I hope the forecast of a warmer, drier than normal winter there is wrong.
Quoting CycloneUK:
The Pacific is Cold

so wear a wetsuit!
The experimental FIM model, along with the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting a low to split off a trough in the Eastern Caribbean and drift west as a depression in about 136 hours.


Not a drop of rain in my area today.

Quoting negriltracy:


Didn't put the ply up but have the house secured and all the patio furniture brought in etc
boards can go up if wind increases or storm turns more to us, it is only 4 picture windows on top balcony that is under the eaves :)
how are you doing? we are having a party tonight I think?!?!?!


Kids driving me crazy already! No hurricane party for me, I'm invited to a "princess tea-party" she's serving jello! :-D
stormpet....update for us on HH?
Quoting TerraNova:
The experimental FIM model, along with the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting a low to split off a trough in the Eastern Caribbean and drift west as a depression in about 136 hours.




that could be this surface trough ?


Wind shift I believe

URNT15 KNHC 041836
AF300 1621A TOMAS HDOB 18 20101104
182700 1641N 07603W 8429 01486 0007 +169 +042 127012 012 028 000 00
182730 1640N 07604W 8432 01482 0006 +170 +044 133009 010 026 000 00
182800 1638N 07605W 8428 01486 0006 +170 +045 129007 008 026 000 03
182830 1637N 07607W 8428 01485 0004 +171 +046 113005 006 025 001 03
182900 1635N 07607W 8433 01479 0003 +174 +046 102004 004 024 000 03
182930 1633N 07608W 8430 01482 0001 +175 +047 098004 005 021 000 03
183000 1631N 07608W 8428 01483 0000 +175 +048 099005 005 018 000 03
183030 1629N 07608W 8425 01486 9997 +178 +048 076004 005 017 000 03
183100 1627N 07608W 8429 01481 9999 +175 +047 060002 003 017 000 00
183130 1625N 07608W 8429 01481 0000 +174 +047 031004 006 019 000 03
183200 1623N 07609W 8430 01480 9999 +174 +046 051007 008 /// /// 03
183230 1622N 07610W 8427 01483 9998 +175 +045 035010 010 018 000 00
183300 1621N 07612W 8437 01475 9998 +178 +045 021010 011 017 000 00
183330 1620N 07614W 8438 01469 9991 +181 +044 010011 011 013 000 00
183400 1619N 07615W 8425 01482 9991 +180 +045 020013 013 013 000 00
183430 1618N 07617W 8429 01478 9995 +177 +045 020013 013 012 000 03
183500 1617N 07618W 8431 01477 9995 +176 +045 004015 016 014 000 00
183530 1616N 07619W 8429 01480 9996 +176 +045 357015 016 016 000 00
183600 1615N 07621W 8429 01480 9995 +180 +044 355016 016 018 000 00
183630 1614N 07622W 8430 01477 9995 +180 +044 357017 017 022 000 00
$$
;
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know everyone is focused on Tomas but just thought I would let you know that Costa Rica is suffering from flooding and mudslides resulting in several people being buried alive.

What section of Costa Rica is this happening in? I have not heard anythign about it.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Wind shift I believe

URNT15 KNHC 041836
AF300 1621A TOMAS HDOB 18 20101104
182700 1641N 07603W 8429 01486 0007 +169 +042 127012 012 028 000 00
182730 1640N 07604W 8432 01482 0006 +170 +044 133009 010 026 000 00
182800 1638N 07605W 8428 01486 0006 +170 +045 129007 008 026 000 03
182830 1637N 07607W 8428 01485 0004 +171 +046 113005 006 025 001 03
182900 1635N 07607W 8433 01479 0003 +174 +046 102004 004 024 000 03
182930 1633N 07608W 8430 01482 0001 +175 +047 098004 005 021 000 03
183000 1631N 07608W 8428 01483 0000 +175 +048 099005 005 018 000 03
183030 1629N 07608W 8425 01486 9997 +178 +048 076004 005 017 000 03
183100 1627N 07608W 8429 01481 9999 +175 +047 060002 003 017 000 00
183130 1625N 07608W 8429 01481 0000 +174 +047 031004 006 019 000 03
183200 1623N 07609W 8430 01480 9999 +174 +046 051007 008 /// /// 03
183230 1622N 07610W 8427 01483 9998 +175 +045 035010 010 018 000 00
183300 1621N 07612W 8437 01475 9998 +178 +045 021010 011 017 000 00
183330 1620N 07614W 8438 01469 9991 +181 +044 010011 011 013 000 00
183400 1619N 07615W 8425 01482 9991 +180 +045 020013 013 013 000 00
183430 1618N 07617W 8429 01478 9995 +177 +045 020013 013 012 000 03
183500 1617N 07618W 8431 01477 9995 +176 +045 004015 016 014 000 00
183530 1616N 07619W 8429 01480 9996 +176 +045 357015 016 016 000 00
183600 1615N 07621W 8429 01480 9995 +180 +044 355016 016 018 000 00
183630 1614N 07622W 8430 01477 9995 +180 +044 357017 017 022 000 00
$$
;

Actually beginning to shift.
Quoting remembercleo:
less organized, increasingly sheared, warming cloud tops..
allowing area to sw to become favored for development due to its less hostile environment

??? ur new so u really dont get it actually
This could be the center
Time: 18:32:30Z
Coordinates: 16.3667N 76.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,483 meters (~ 4,865 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.8 mb (~ 29.52 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 35° at 10 knots (From the NE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 17.5°C (~ 63.5°F)
Dew Pt: 4.5°C (~ 40.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 76.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 75.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 74.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.8N 73.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 71.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

no weakening trend here doesnt happen until 3-4 days from now
i beg u 2 enlighten me then, kind sir.
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
Tomas is a nice fish storm




i dont think any one in Haiti think so
Tomas has definitely moved E in the past hour. If you open the two images in two tabs and switch between them, it is easier to see.

Loop

1732Z:



1832Z

I see the COC moving east now. I think this is the start of a NE motion.
ATCF just updated says 45 knots/998 mb @ 16.3N/76.2W:

AL, 21, 2010110418, , BEST, 0, 163N, 762W, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 60, 0, 0,
Quoting Seastep:
Tomas has definitely moved E in the past hour. If you open the two images in two tabs and switch between them, it is easier to see.

Loop

1732Z:



1832Z


Check the Kingston radar to confirm, Dr. Nabb says based on the radar it's going NNW into the east coast of Jam.
When does HH go out?
Peak Values From Recon

Mission # = 16
Agency = Air Force
Time = 11/04 18:27:00Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure 994.7mb (~29.37 inHg)
Highest Flt Lvl Wind (30sec AV) = 40kts (~46.0mph)
Highest SFMR Peak Wind = 50kts (~57.5mph)
Quoting Tazmanian:




i dont think any one in Haiti think so


I agree with you Tazmanian. And I don't think the people in Barbados or St. Lucia think so either.
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (1degree north of) NorthWest
from it's previous heading of (8.9degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~9.3mph(~15km/h)
TD.Tomas
3Nov 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A
4Nov 03amGMT - 15.4n75.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#24
4Nov 06amGMT - 15.7n75.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1001mb - NHC.Adv.#24A
4Nov 09amGMT - 15.8n76.1w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#25
4Nov 12pmGMT - 15.9n76.0w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 998mb - NHC.Adv.#25A
4Nov 03pmGMT - 16.3n76.1w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26
4Nov 06pmGMT - 16.4n76.2w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26A

Copy&paste 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, 15.0n74.9w-15.4n75.2w, 15.4n75.2w-15.7n75.8w, 15.7n75.8w-15.8n76.1w, 15.8n76.1w-15.9n76.0w, 15.9n76.0w-16.3n76.1w, 16.3n76.1w-16.4n76.2w, gcm, mbj, pap, 16.4n76.2w-17.86n77.68w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1day&17*hours from now to Southfield,Jamaica

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
* I wouldn't count on Tomas to continue traveling as such a slow speed.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Peak Values From Recon

Mission # = 16
Agency = Air Force
Time = 11/04 18:27:00Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure 994.7mb (~29.37 inHg)
Highest Flt Lvl Wind (30sec AV) = 40kts (~46.0mph)
Highest SFMR Peak Wind = 50kts (~57.5mph)



Pressure slowly going down.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF just updated says 45 knots/998 mb @ 16.3N/76.2W:

AL, 21, 2010110418, , BEST, 0, 163N, 762W, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 60, 0, 0,

Location consistent with recon.
I see the COC at 16n and 76.1w and moving east right now.
Quoting remembercleo:
i beg u 2 enlighten me then, kind sir.

one recon will tell us
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

dude tell that to the lesser antelles they got nailed now haiti is next anyways u have ability what a fish storm is....did this impact somebody....yes anyways u have no life

Ignore posts like those, did you notice that almost no one took any notice?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:



Pressure slowly going down.


Those are peak values and there has not been a vortex message from mission #16 yet, could be higher as those readings need to be verified.
Time: 18:20:00Z
Coordinates: 16.9833N 75.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,491 meters (~ 4,892 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.2 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 117° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Dew Pt: 2.8°C (~ 37.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr (~ 0.55 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Those are peak values and there has not been a vortex message from mission #16 yet, could be higher as those readings need to be verified.


Good point.
JFL, thanks for the Costa Rica information...My husband has family not far from there
Quoting JFLORIDA:


At least 16 dead in Costa Rica mudslides, Red Cross says

At least 16 people died and more than 15 others were missing Thursday after heavy overnight rains caused severe mudslides in parts of Costa Rica, the nation's Red Cross said.

Another 600 people have sought refuge in 14 shelters, said the Costa Rica National Commission for Emergencies.


They are just getting over a huge dengue outbreak and a resurgence of H1N1.


Ref:

Costa Rica H1N1 scare prompts call for vaccinations June 11, 2010

5,000 dengue cases in 7 days - August 16


Thanks for the information..my husband has family not far from there...we were clueless
he looks less organized and weaker on recent satellite images
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Check the Kingston radar to confirm, Dr. Nabb says based on the radar it's going NNW into the east coast of Jam.


He may do that, but since 1:23edt, he has gone E quite a bit. Look at those images and the long line. Can even look where the center is in relation to the E tip of Jamaica. He moved E.

That can certainly change and it could just be temporary, but that is the current short-term motion for the past hour or so. Continued on the 1845Z frame, too.
Quoting remembercleo:
he looks less organized and weaker on recent satellite images

What do you mean by less organized? Looks the sane as it did a few frames ago to me.
Time: 18:34:00Z
Coordinates: 16.3167N 76.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.5 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,482 meters (~ 4,862 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 999.1 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 20° at 13 knots (From the NNE at ~ 14.9 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 4.5°C (~ 40.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
probably near the center now
looks organized to me anyways tell this haiti this wont help.
Vortex Message

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 18:31:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°27'N 76°08'W (16.45N 76.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the SSE (158°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,411m (4,629ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 39kts (From the SE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:24:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:47:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center
Interesting system. It seems pretty obvious to my admittedly untrained eye that the LLC is pivoting around a MLC in counter-clockwise cycloidal loop. System is not stacked vertically at all.
Quoting LoveThemCanes:
JFL, thanks for the Costa Rica information...My husband has family not far from there
Thanks for the information..my husband has family not far from there...we were clueless


I hope his family is safe. The look to be in for more rain unfortunately.

cimss says otherwise
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
Tomas is a nice fish storm


This storm has already caused death and destruction in its path and these people were NOT fishing.
Quoting kimoskee:


Kids driving me crazy already! No hurricane party for me, I'm invited to a "princess tea-party" she's serving jello! :-D


Sounds like fun but I think over here will be more along the lines of jell-o shots!!!
331. 7544
could tomas follow that clip model looks like hes drifting sw now
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This storm has already caused death and destruction in its path and these people were NOT fishing.

+100
Quoting JFLORIDA:


I hope his family is safe. The look to be in for more rain unfortunately.




too its opening up in too a cold front or STS
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
looks organized to me anyways tell this haiti this wont help.
organized in what way?..less banding features?
oops
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Interesting system. It seems pretty obvious to my admittedly untrained eye that the LLC is pivoting around a MLC in counter-clockwise cycloidal loop. System is not stacked vertically at all.


very odd things happening today. Regardless I think a weaker storm may just make landfall in Jamacia, just my opinion.
Some of you forget that this was already a category 2 borderline 3 hurricane already
for a lopsided system its pretty good organized i've seen worser lopsided systems.
All great news for the Earthquake zone in Haiti.
u forgot the rain will cause problems there no matter what
For all Jamaica Residents:
Wednesday, November 4, 2010 at 2:00 p.m.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT … RAINBANDS BEGIN TO AFFECT JAMAICA

BULLETIN No: 25

As rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Tomas begins to affect Jamaica, a TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for the island. This means that tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained wind speeds of 34-63 knots or 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph), are expected in 36 hours or less.

At 1:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near Latitude 16.4 degrees North, Longitude 76.2 degrees West; about 150 km (90 miles) south of Morant Point, Jamaica or 475 km (295 miles) west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Tomas is moving towards the north near 11 km/h (7 mph) and a gradual turn towards the northeast, with an increase in forward speed, is expected later today. On the forecast track, the centre of Tomas is, therefore, forecast to pass near to the east end of Jamaica tonight, and continue towards western Haiti/eastern Cuba by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 km (85 miles) from the centre and are expected to impact sections of Jamaica’s eastern parishes this afternoon.

Reports from Doppler radar and automatic weather stations indicate that moderate showers associated with Tomas continue to affect sections of St. Mary, Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston and St. Andrew and St. Catherine.

Rainfall accumulations of near 75 millimetres (3 inches) are possible over the island, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding in flood-prone areas today. The chance of eastern parishes experiencing storm-force winds has increased to about 60% during the passage of Tomas. Above-average wave heights should also be expected over coastal areas of northeastern parishes.

Small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks, are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests should pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Tomas will be issued at 5:00 p.m. today.
egt
Tropical Storm Tomas looks like it is losing a lot of steam he is creating by SSW shear....is this the case?
Not the case?
Next vortex pass should give us an idea of its general motion.
just lopsided ive seen worser systems than this
I wonder if Tomas will lash Bermuda with gales as he is swept off to the north sunlinepr.
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 3 sec ago
Clear
71.9 °F
Clear
Humidity: 24%
Dew Point: 33 °F
Wind: 19.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 75 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 4.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new
beautiful weather here nice
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
u forgot the rain will cause problems there no matter what



I did not forget that, you assume too much. Rain will cause less of a problem and wind will be less of a problem. Both of which are GREAT news if it verifies.
bb in a while
Quoting cornchucker:
Tropical Storm Tomas looks like it is losing a lot of steam he is creating by SSW shear....is this the case?
yes and only 60% chance of storm force winds on Jamaica's easternmost areas, as of the latest posted by WW12
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I wonder if Tomas will lash Bermuda with gales as he is swept off to the north sunlinepr.



With such an amount of possibilities it can even impact Mass. from the North East...
rain mtns=bad...get the memo sry
note all the moisture on the east side not good
Baton Rouge, Louisiana (PWS)
Clear
66.6 °F
Humidity: 23%
Dew Point: 28 °F
Wind: 7.3 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 7.8 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in (Steady)

It's cold and going to get colder! Not looking forward to it. I prefer tropical temps.
357. MahFL
Looks to me the old coc is being absorbed and a new one forming further WSW.
Surely Tomas will be extratropical by the time he reaches Massachusetts if he heads in that direction. But could still be a nasty storm.
Current Weather Conditions:
Port-Au-Prince / Aeroport International, Haiti
(MTPP) 18-34N 072-18W 34M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Nov 04, 2010 - 03:00 PM EDTNov 04, 2010 - 02:00 PM CDTNov 04, 2010 - 01:00 PM MDTNov 04, 2010 - 12:00 PM PDTNov 04, 2010 - 11:00 AM ADTNov 04, 2010 - 10:00 AM HDT
2010.11.04 1900 UTC
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT) gusting to 35 MPH (30 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.7 in. Hg (1005 hPa)
ob MTPP 041900Z 09020G30KT 7000 -RA FEW005 SCT024 OVC060 28/23 Q1006 A2970

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Nov 04 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.7 (1005) E 23 light rain
2 PM (18) Nov 04 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.73 (1006)
1 PM (17) Nov 04 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.79 (1008) E 21
Noon (16) Nov 04 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.78 (1008) E 21
11 AM (15) Nov 04 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.79 (1008) E 18
10 AM (14) Nov 04 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.79 (1008) E 16
9 AM (13) Nov 04 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.78 (1008) E 14
8 AM (12) Nov 04 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.78 (1008) E 14
On the rgb loop the center can be seen making a little circle (yellow) at the surface while the upper level circulation has become detached. The afternoon is kicking in too keeping a check on the new convection.
I like the pattern setup so far on the models for the middle to end of November which shows a deep trough in the mid section of the US and as a result could mean a rainy mid to late November. Eventhough this is a La-Nina year the pattern is such that November will be much wetter than average for FL. Will this continue into December well I hope so.
At least, 3 days ago, the spectation was a Cat. 2-3 on a direct hit over Haiti... Now we have a trop. storm, mostly over seas between Haiti & Jamaica with 50-60 mph winds.... Though it will bring lots of rain, we still hope for the best....
Quoting Neapolitan:

A completely baseless fabrication. That's what happens when sources of "news"--Limbaugh, Drudge, MarketWatch, et al--fail to do even the most basic fact checking. The initial figure came from an unnamed "top official" in an Indian newspaper.

(In case you're wondering, if there really were 3,000 people going and the US picked up the tab for all of them, that would be $66,000 per person per day...not a likely figure.)

Don't believe everything you read. Please...


Michelle "La La Land" Bachmann said so...so it must be true! I think the impeachment proceedings will be starting soon too...cue Twilight Zone music here...
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
\

Obama's trip does NOT cost $200 million dollars a day or anything close to that.


It does on Faux News...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This storm has already caused death and destruction in its path and these people were NOT fishing.
Not a fish storm a very destructive killer hurricane the worst one so far of the 2010 season 14 death blame in St. Lucia, his name likely to be taken from the list...!!!
no center observed on Jamaica radar 300 mile range
chilly night coming here
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 4 sec ago
Clear
71.3 °F
Clear
Humidity: 23%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 33.0 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 75 °F
Time: 18:21:00Z
Coordinates: 16.9333N 75.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,491 meters (~ 4,892 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.2 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 26 knots (From the ESE at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 13.8°C (~ 56.8°F)
Dew Pt: 2.5°C (~ 36.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 30 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
i see it actually look at the orange curved band
Light rain in parts of kingston right now.... See live camera feed here Live Feed from the GLeaner Building Kingston Jamaica
Time: 19:52:00Z
Coordinates: 16.2167N 75.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,433 meters (~ 4,701 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 993.1 mb (~ 29.33 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 222° at 8 knots (From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (~ 70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.3°C (~ 41.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

Not sure but this looks to be the new center, though not tagged yet, moving ESE if this is indeed the case? What a weird Storm!
Reagardless of what the trip cost...You fellas took a beating Tuesday! It couldn't of happened to more derserving bunch. See ya Pelosi!!!1
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
i see it actually look at the orange curved band
it's hard to discern..the radar loop's images are one hour apart. it's just a curved area until next picture arrives..the overall organization of Tomas according to this radar is a MESS.
Highs in the low 70's, lows in the 40's this weekend!! Getting lots of rain the last few days...GREAT weather week for Southwest Florida. Not so much for Haiti I fear...

Hey Press, are you down there now or between trips?
BTW...Did ya'll see the ratings for Tuesday nite? FOX smoked the other networks badly.....
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 19:52:00Z
Coordinates: 16.2167N 75.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,433 meters (~ 4,701 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 993.1 mb (~ 29.33 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 222° at 8 knots (From the SW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (~ 70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.3°C (~ 41.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)

Not sure but this looks to be the new center, though not tagged yet, moving ESE if this is indeed the case? What a weird Storm!


When this is all over, I hope NHC does a special analysis of Tomas. He has been an enigma
I think the way the center is moving now, it is getting ready for that NNE turn, JMO.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Reagardless of what the trip cost...You fellas took a beating Tuesday! It couldn't of happened to more derserving bunch. See ya Pelosi!!!1


Still got the Senate and the White House...try harder next time...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
BTW...Did ya'll see the ratings for Tuesday nite? FOX smoked the other networks badly.....


who cares?
WOW , another aircraft in the air from St Croix to check out Tomas!!
Quoting MahFL:
Looks to me the old coc is being absorbed and a new one forming further WSW.
something going on not sure if the origional ciruclation of thomas still exist
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 20:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 21
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 13

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 4th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.5N 76.0W
Location: 116 miles (186 km) to the SSE (153°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (29.44 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 90° (from the E) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb -30m (-98 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 657m (2,156 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.6°C (70.9°F) 140° (from the SE) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,391m (4,564 ft) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 35° (from the NE) 2 knots (2 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.46N 75.97W
Splash Time: 20:02Z

Release Location: 16.45N 75.96W
Release Time: 19:59:56Z

Splash Location: 16.46N 75.97W
Splash Time: 20:01:36Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 996mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
997mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F)
850mb 18.8°C (65.8°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F)
848mb 20.6°C (69.1°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F)
847mb 23.4°C (74.1°F) Approximately 8°C (46°F)
846mb 23.6°C (74.5°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F)
844mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) Approximately 4°C (39°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 35° (from the NE) 2 knots (2 mph)
849mb 140° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
844mb 165° (from the SSE) 1 knots (1 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.

---
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
BTW...Did ya'll see the ratings for Tuesday nite? FOX smoked the other networks badly.....


See post #246
388. myway
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Still got the Senate and the White House...try harder next time...


I hope we keep the Senate and White House 2 years from now. The largest gain since 1932 for any party just happened.
Comet Hartley 2: NASA rendezvous a success, even better pics on the way

A NASA spacecraft survived a rendezvous with a small comet Thursday, beaming pictures back to Earth that gave scientists a rare close-up view of its center.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101104/ap_on_sc/us_sci_comet_encounter_7



Quoting myway:


I hope we keep the Senate and White House 2 years from now. The largest gain since 1932 for any party just happened.


I think it is the "CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW!!!!!" factor.
Quoting SQUAWK:


I think it is the "CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW!!!!!" factor.


Or the hundreds of millions in corporate money that was poured into the races without any type of required disclosure...I can't wait to hear all of the new and wonderful ideas that are going to be be presented by the new house.
Looks like the COC moves west then east in the visible loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Quoting stormpetrol:

no evidence of a northward movement, if anything in the last few loops it has drifted SE, JMO of course, HHs will confirm the location soon!
Crawling West or SE? make up your mind! Can't be both :)
Quoting burrokeet:
I live in the northeastern suburbs of Kingston, Jamaica - interestingly the weather here is still holding - partially overcast, and a bit of light drizzle, but that's it - no heavy rains, no breeze of any kind, mostly sunny for the last 2 days.



While others argue and prognosticate, I'll wish you good luck. Please keep us posted.
While Jeff9641 goes a bit overboard with Florida weather, he didn't do too bad on this storm. Sure, it's not a outbreak of severe weather, but there IS a slight risk of severe weather and the clouds are turning very dark over here, signaling a strong to severe storm just north of me. Surprised a warning isn't issued,it's quite windy and unstable, but we have a special weather statement.

Good job Jeff! :)
Things starting to look bad fo Haiti, Tomas starting to move NE now!
Tomas is starting to finally wrap some clouds around to the western side where it was exposed. There's a decent chance Tomas could wrap up into a minimal Hurricane tonight into the morning, guess we'll see. God has really spared Haiti from a major Hurricane, lots of prayers have been answered. It could have been worse. Which is one of the reasons I am who I am, a firm believer in Christ.

This is literally a miracle for those people, it could have been a major by now.


Quoting scooster67:
Crawling West or SE? make up your mind! Can't be both :)

LMAO!!! See now I have it moving NE, shifting my mind like how Tomas has shifted his centers :),jokes aside I'm really sorry for all those poor folks in the path of Tomas heavy rains and possibly winds!
Law and order prevailing in preparations for Tomas in Haiti.

...An effort to move some 2,000 people from Corail was obstructed by camp dwellers worried that authorities were trying to permanently move them out.

More than 100 yelling youths broke tables set up by aid workers to process the evacuees from the tent and tarpaulin camp of some 7,700 people located at the base of several bare hills outside of the Haitian capital.


Source --- MSNBC
Time: 21:56:30Z
Coordinates: 16.7667N 73.9333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.2 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,124 meters (~ 10,249 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.8 mb (~ 29.58 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 167° at 33 knots (From the SSE at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp: 9.5°C (~ 49.1°F)
Dew Pt: 9.2°C (~ 48.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Closing in on Tomas again!
Amen
Rain coming down now in Beverly Hills, Kingston Jamaica
wall of greyish white to the sea but no wind yet
And away we go...!!!
With the change in direction, Tomas is now moving with the shear. He's run his surface COC back under the moisture & blowing up as the sun goes down. I'm expecting a hurricane on the west tip of Haiti with Haiti catching the bad side by noon tomorrow.
Big area~ 1/2 of Haiti, bit of Cuba & most the SE Bahamas expecting 20-30 ft waves.
405. MahFL
Oh dear, Thomas is getting stronger.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Reagardless of what the trip cost...You fellas took a beating Tuesday! It couldn't of happened to more derserving bunch. See ya Pelosi!!!1


Yeahhhh!! Now we can go back to times like the last year Bush was in office.......can't wait!!!!!! The election fixed everything!! LOL....

No more politics on the board.......