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Tomas nearly dead; Haiti deals with Tomas' floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on November 07, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas is merging with a cold front over the open Atlantic Ocean and has only a few more hours of life as a tropical cyclone. Despite bringing heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches to highly vulnerable Haiti on Friday, flooding from the storm is only being blamed for eight deaths in the country. Haiti has thankfully avoided a flooding catastrophe, and it certainly could have gone far worse for Haiti. Much weaker storms than Tomas have claimed thousands of lives, and Tomas could easily have done so had it taken a slightly different track. Still, Tomas' passage caused plenty of flooding damage in Haiti. The heavy rains and floods from the storm will also worsen the country's cholera epidemic, which has already claimed over 500 lives. Cholera is a spread via contaminated water, and Tomas' rains will cause a great deal of water contamination. Portlight.org has their mobile kitchen on the scene and is assessing needs. As reported by Rudy Victor in the Portlight.org blog, "Reports coming from the countryside are not good. Thank God its not what we're afraid of, but lots of damage. Leogane a city west of Port-au-Prince is inundated, cities along the extreme southwestern peninsula have suffered great damage by the seas; lots of small fishermen's houses are gone. Dame Marie, Anse d'Hainault, Les Irois, Chambellan, and lots more have been severely damaged by storm surge and raging waves. Gonaives is flooded since last night; luckily there are not reports yet of casualties there. Most people fled to higher ground before the storm. A lot of roads in the south west are destroyed, lots of harvest in the south are lost, and it's another terrible blow for this country, but it appears that there was not a lot of death due to the storm."


Figure 1. Morning afternoon satellite image of Tomas shows that the storm has lost almost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and is now embedded in a cold front that extends northwards to Nova Scotia, Canada. Moisture streaming northwards from Tomas along this front has brought heavy rains in excess of six inches to Nova Scotia over the past few two days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters!!
Hey,,were all alone.

Magine dat here?
So is that spin between PuertoRico and the northeastern LesserAntilles, and south of Tomas?
Complete Update

Tomas could be doing at westward swing back into the Northern States in a few days.


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
maybe getting cooler weather going into this tropical storm..its starting to look like a cold cord storm its look like a northeaster to me.
1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...


GOOD RIDANCE "TOMAS"!!!!
Kinda looks like whatever is left of the circulation is being shoved SE.
Snow covers the mountains in North Carolina on Friday morning
GFS Low S Jamaica



NAM - Low Mona Passage

thanks for update doc
What other models show a possible new system??
Weird portrait of wind shear near PR this hour: echoes moving two different directions at once, presumably at different altitudes. Tornado hazard?
Link
Bye-bye Tomas. Hope we don't see you again.

Looks like Igor, Karl, and Tomas get the boot in the spring.
Good to see Tomas dying. That speckled cold-air stratocumulus is almost in the core.

Will Tomas be declared dead at 4 pm or 10 pm today or later?

I'm going with 4 pm.
I'm not sure that any of the names should be retired this year. It seems like that if every storm that causes a fair amount of damage is retired we will run out of names. Especially if we retire 3 or 4 names every year.

Retirement should be for really catastrophic storms like Mitch or Katrina. That's what I think.
I don't think the name Igor will be retired--there isn't sufficient justification. Tomas, probably; Karl, maybe.
The Retirement of Hurricane Names

Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history. The National Hurricane Center near Miami, Florida, monitors tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans which could become a hurricane.

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms.

There is an exception to the retirement rule, however. Before 1979, when the first permanent six-year storm name list began, some storm names were simply not used anymore. For example, in 1966, "Fern" was substituted for "Frieda," and no reason was cited.

Below is a list of Atlantic Ocean retired names, the years the hurricanes occurred, and the areas they affected. There are, however, a great number of destructive storms not included on this list because they occurred before the hurricane naming convention was established in 1950.

Atlantic Storms Retired Into Hurricane History

Agnes (1972): Florida, Northeast U.S.
Alicia (1983): North Texas
Allen (1980): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Allison (2001): northeast Texas
Andrew (1992): Bahamas, South Florida, Louisiana
Anita (1977): Mexico
Audrey (1957): Louisiana, North Texas
Betsy (1965): Bahamas, Southeast Florida, Southeast Louisiana
Beulah (1967): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Bob (1991): North Carolina & Northeast U.S.
Camille (1969): Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama
Carla (1961): Texas
Carmen (1974): Mexico, Central Louisiana
Carol (1954): Northeast U.S.
Cesar (1996): Honduras
Celia (1970): South Texas
Charley (2004): Jamaica, western Cuba, Florida
Cleo (1964): Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Cuba, Southeast Florida
Connie (1955): North Carolina
David (1979): Lesser Antilles, Hispañola, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dennis (2005): Alabama, Florida
Diana (1990): Mexico
Diane (1955): Mid-Atlantic U.S. & Northeast U.S.
Donna (1960): Bahamas, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dora (1964): Northeast Florida
Edna (1968)
Elena (1985): Mississippi, Alabama, Western Florida
Eloise (1975): Antilles, Northwest Florida, Alabama
Fabian (2003): Bermuda
Fifi (1974): Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Flora (1963): Haiti, Cuba
Floyd (1999): North Carolina, eastern seaboard
Fran (1996): North Carolina
Frances (2004): Florida
Frederic (1979): Alabama and Mississippi
Georges (1998): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Mississippi
Gilbert (1988): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
Gloria (1985): North Carolina, Northeast U.S.
Hattie (1961): Belize, Guatemala
Hazel (1954): Antilles, North and South Carolina
Hilda (1964): Louisiana
Hortense (1996)
Hugo (1989): Antilles, South Carolina
Inez (1966): Lesser Antilles, Hispanola, Cuba, Florida Keys, Mexico
Ione (1955): North Carolina
Iris (2001): Belize, Guatemala
Isabel (2003): North Carolina
Isidore (2002): Cuba, northern Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Ivan (2004): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, western Cuba, Alabama, western Florida panhandle
Janet (1955): Lesser Antilles, Belize, Mexico
Jeanne (2004): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, northern Bahamas, Florida
Joan (1988): Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua (Crossed into the Pacific and became Miriam)
Juan (2003): Nova Scotia
Katrina (2005): South Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
Keith (2000): Belize, Mexico
Klaus (1990): Martinique
Lenny (1999): Antilles
Lili (2002): Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Louisiana
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995): Bermuda
Michelle (2001): Central America, Cuba, northern Bahamas
Mitch (1998): Central America, Nicaragua, Honduras
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle
Rita (2005): northeast Texas, western Louisiana
Roxanne (1995): Yucatan Peninsula
Stan (2005): Mexico
Wilma (2005): northeast Yucatan Peninsula, Florida
Karl caused $4 BILLION in damage...

Its getting retired...No doubt.

Igor caused at least $150 MILLION in damage...And it gave Canada/Nova Scotia one of the worst Tropical Systems every recorded...

Its probably getting retired...

Tomas has caused $544 MILLION so far...It gave St. Lucia one of the most damaging hurricanes ever recorded...

Its probably getting retired...
22. JRRP
cold waters near Bermuda
I guess I believe in a stricter standard. I think that the 2 or 3 most damaging and deadly storms in a decade should be retired, not every storm that does a lot of damage someplace but isn't really catastrophic. Tomas caused a lot of damage in St. Lucia but he wasn't a catastrophic storm. Not really. It's like retiring football player or baseball player numbers. Do it too often and you run out of numbers and quietly have to slip the numbers or names back in later.
Quoting Snowfire:
Weird portrait of wind shear near PR this hour: echoes moving two different directions at once, presumably at different altitudes. Tornado hazard?
Link

Thunderstorm complex to the west is collapsing, creating what are called outflow boundaries.

This is firing new storms SE of PR and will help these storms to become strong and drop very heavy rains across the island today.

Severe threat is low at this time.
The only name I see getting retired is Karl. All the other hurricanes this year have not caused sufficient damage to be retired.
Alex - Possibly

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - Possibly

Julia - No

Karl - Yes

Lisa - No

Matthew - Possibly

Nicole - Maybe

Otto - No

Paula - ???? (No Damage Report)

Richard - No

Shary - No

Tomas - Probably
Tropical Storm Matthew has a good ch be come it did $2.6 billion in Damage and Fatalities 126 direct, 17 missing


from here


Link


Hurricane Alex has a ch be come it did $1.885 billion in Damage and Fatalities 33 direct, 18 indirect, 22 missing


from here


Link


CIRA's software keeps pointing to an area east of Bermuda. But with marginal SSTs and shear as high as it is, I find it a bit hard to take seriously (although weird stuff happened at the end of 2005, as I recall.)
Ok, for fun.. go and watch this CMC model run

Shows Tomas heading northward, splitting... one piece heading to the Northeastern states, the other part continuing North... the part hitting the states..appears to rebound and start heading back towards the Caribbean.

As an added bonus.. its also has a system starting in the Southwest Caribbean.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Karl caused $4 BILLION in damage...

Its getting retired...No doubt.

Igor caused at least $150 MILLION in damage...And it gave Canada/Nova Scotia one of the worst Tropical Systems every recorded...

Its probably getting retired...

Tomas has caused $544 MILLION so far...It gave St. Lucia one of the most damaging hurricanes ever recorded...

Its probably getting retired...

Actually, Karl did $5.6 BILLION, and Igor hit Newfoundland, not Nova Scotia.
List of top 20 most active hurricane seasons. Years in Bold are ones that happened within the last 15 years. Ties are only in this list IF the seasons have the same number of names, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

2005 (28-15-7) #1
1933 (21-10-5) #2
2010 (19-12-5 in progress) #3
1995 (19-11-5) #4

1887 (19-11-2) #5
1969 (18-12-5) #6
2008 (16-8-5) #7
2003 (16-7-3) #8

1936 (16-7-1) #9
1916 (15-10-5)#10
2004 (15-9-6) #11
2001 (15-9-4) #12
2000 (15-8-3) #13
2007 (15-8-2) #14

1998 (14-10-3)#15
1990 (14-8-1) #16
1953 (14-6-1) #17
1950 (13-11-8)#18
1971 (13-6-1) #19
1999 (12-8-5) #20
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only name I see getting retired is Karl. All the other hurricanes this year have not caused sufficient damage to be retired.


Tomas did. Matter of fact, Dr. Masters even said in a previous blog that Tomas will probably get the boot.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
List of top 20 most active hurricane seasons. Years in Bold are ones that happened within the last 15 years. Ties are only in this list IF the seasons have the same number of names, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.

2005 (28-15-7) #1
1933 (21-10-5) #2
2010 (19-12-5 in progress) #3
1995 (19-11-5) #4

1887 (19-11-2) #5
1969 (18-12-5) #6
2008 (16-8-5) #7
2003 (16-7-3) #8

1936 (16-7-1) #9
1916 (15-10-5)#10
2004 (15-9-6) #11
2001 (15-9-4) #12
2000 (15-8-3) #13
2007 (15-8-2) #14

1998 (14-10-3)#15
1990 (14-8-1) #16
1953 (14-6-1) #17
1950 (13-11-8)#18
1971 (13-6-1) #19
1999 (12-8-5) #20

So we're the 2nd most active season in the last 15 years? Whoa. What a contrast compared to the Eastern Pacific.
Also. Looks like the season closest to this one was 1995 in terms of damage, death toll, and number of names storms, hurricanes, and majors.

1995: 19-11-5, 9.8 billion in damages, 138 dead.
2010: 19-12-5, 10.8 billion in damages, 246 dead.

Fun facts.


So 522 Cholera deaths is the official number. 7743 hospitalizations.
Cholera has also spread to Gonave Island - all these numbers are pre Thomas.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So we're the 2nd most active season in the last 15 years? Whoa. What a contrast compared to the Eastern Pacific.


EPAC is on track to become the least active hurricane season in recorded history for them.

Only at 7-3-2 there. Last storm was in September to boot.
Supreme Court: Texas can't take private beach land

By RAMIT PLUSHNICK-MASTI Associated Press � 2010 The Associated Press
Nov. 5, 2010, 4:47PM


HOUSTON %u2014 The Texas Supreme Court said Friday the state can't take over private beachfront land when storms leave houses on sand after washing away coastal plants, long considered the line between public and private property.

The ruling could end a decades-long dispute that resurfaced after each hurricane washed some of the Texas Gulf Coast back into the water.

The state had argued it could condemn the land, saying the homes were now on a "public beach" and had to be made accessible under a law guaranteeing public access to sandy beaches.

However, the Supreme Court said condemning the beachfront land violates the rights of property owners.

"This is a big victory," said J. David Breemer, the attorney who represented property owner Carol Severance. "For 30 years, the state is telling everybody the vegetation draws the public beach line. Not anymore."

The Supreme Court will hand its 6-2 opinion to the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to make a final ruling.

Texas Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson, who was named in Severance's lawsuit and has been a proponent of the public beach laws used to condemn lands after storms, said his office is still studying the ruling.

"We really don't know what it means or what the net result will be," Patterson said.

The six judges who formed the majority opinion drew from laws and deals dating back to the 19th century, when Texas was a republic. At that time, the court said, the republic agreed that land on Galveston Island's West Beach could be owned by private people. When Texas became a state, it recognized those beachfront deals, guaranteeing the landowners the protection afforded private property owners. .

Hurricane Rita's winds and rain pounded the Texas shoreline in 2005, leaving Severance's home along a sandy coast. The state insisted her land was now a public beach and ordered her to demolish the structure. Later, it offered her $40,000 if she removed the home according to the state's timeline.

Severance filed suit against the state, arguing the move to take away her land without offering her fair compensation violated her constitutional rights. She also argued the risk she took when she bought a beachfront property was that the home could suddenly be washed away, not that if erosion left her yards within a sandy coast that the state could take her land.

The court agreed with her argument, saying "losing property to the public trust as it becomes part of the wet beach or submerged under the ocean is an ordinary hazard of ownership for coastal property owners" but "it is far less reasonable" to change an owner's rights to land based on gradual, natural beachfront erosion.

"On the one hand, the public has an important interest in the enjoyment of Texas' public beaches," wrote Justice Dale Wainwright. "But on the other hand, the right to exclude others from privately owned realty is among the most valuable and fundamental rights possessed by private property owners."
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only name I see getting retired is Karl. All the other hurricanes this year have not caused sufficient damage to be retired.

What about the $2.6 billion Matthew caused? Unless you're talking about hurricanes in specific and not Tropical Storms.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


EPAC is on track to become the least active hurricane season in recorded history for them.

Only at 7-3-2 there. Last storm was in September to boot.

Wow. Nothing happened in October? Half of they're activity happened in JUNE. That's kinda pathetic.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Wow. Nothing happened in October? Half of they're activity happened in JUNE. That's kinda pathetic.


Their seasons are usually a bit more front loaded.

Thoughts with Haiti and anyone else who got hit.
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage
Earthquakes, cholera, and now floods. Haiti has been hit pretty hard this year.
44. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS...LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

the wave along 35w headed west reminds me how Tomas started...with an "unusually vigorous" tropical wave.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage



the M storm dos have a %70 ch be come it did $2.6 billion in damage
Quoting Tazmanian:



the M storm dos have a %70 ch be come it did $2.6 billion in damage


Was our deadliest storm this season too.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The only name I see getting retired is Karl. All the other hurricanes this year have not caused sufficient damage to be retired.

I reckon will find out in April, but I think Tomas and Karl are shoe-ins for retirement, Igor is likely (if Environment Canada requests it, and I imagine they will), and Alex is a distinct possibility.

And a word to the "season is definitely over" crowd, who we're sure to hear more from over the next several days: in 2005 there was a three-week lull between Beta, which formed on 10/26, and Gamma, which came into being on 11/15...and after Gamma, there were still three others. That's not to say we'll see four more storms, but it's too early to claim things over with any real degree of certainty...
Wow Matthew caused $2.6 Billion in Damage and 126 direct fatalities. This one might have a case for retirement too.
959mb low:



Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, for fun.. go and watch this CMC model run

Shows Tomas heading northward, splitting... one piece heading to the Northeastern states, the other part continuing North... the part hitting the states..appears to rebound and start heading back towards the Caribbean.

As an added bonus.. its also has a system starting in the Southwest Caribbean.



CMC living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones...

Check out this report deep in the Caribbean. That latest cold front is still going strong way down at 16 degrees North Latitude.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: N (360%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant
Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 59.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?

I'll buy the first three...but why Shary?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I guess I believe in a stricter standard. I think that the 2 or 3 most damaging and deadly storms in a decade should be retired, not every storm that does a lot of damage someplace but isn't really catastrophic.
Notice that the words are "it cannot be reused for at least 10 years." The name is not permanently gone. I would guess that in 10 years, the powers-that-be would review whether a storm's name ("Katrina") is still in the public mind, and then decide whether to re-use it. They're not going to run out of names!
Karl - Gone.
Igor - Gone, Newfoundland requested retirement.
Tomas - Gone, Virgin Islands will probably request retirement.
Alex - Possibly.. 2 billion to Texas/Mexico was caused.
Matthew - Possibly, heavy damage to Central America and heavy loss of life. Would be the 2nd TS to be retired in the Atlantic basin.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
so in total my likely picks for retirement are:
Tomas
Karl
Igor?
Shary?




you for got Matthew
Quoting Dakster:


CMC living up to its namesake of Constantly Making Cyclones...

Quite a few of the models do in fact have something forming in the Caribbean Sea in about a week...NOGAPS.(which is a cyclone ambitious model in its own right).Link...And the NCEP...Link
Quoting hydrus:
Quite a few of the models do in fact have something forming in the Caribbean Sea in about a week...NOGAPS.(which is a cyclone ambitious in its own right).Link

Just wonderful, the Caribbean region needs another tropical system like I need another hole in my head.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Just wonderful, the Caribbean region needs another tropical system like I need another hole in my head.
I posted the NCEP on the last post I typed...It also has a storm forming....
Quoting hydrus:
I posted the NCEP on the last post I typed...It also has a storm forming....

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
2011 will be here soon enough
should be quiet on the blogs from here on out as most disappear till april
Quoting Bordonaro:

Well, 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season was a real hyperactive year..I have the funny feeling next year will be busy also, but not as bad as this year, I hope!!
Well by then we should heading into a neutral phase, which leads me to believe it will be an above average year with more U.S.landfalls...This is just speculation on my behalf.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should be quiet on the blogs from here on out as most disappear till april

I'll be here tracking the USA and world wide crazy winter weather patterns, compliments of the La Nina!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll buy the first three...but why Shary?
It's like the stan situation of 05. he made hurricane statues and the name had never been used. although the one other reason why stan was retired was it caused quite a bit of damage which shary didnt.
so that one is more of my toss up.
Quoting hydrus:
Well by then we should heading into a neutral phase, which leads me to believe it will be an above average year with more U.S.landfalls...This is just speculation on my behalf.

Preliminary 2011 ATL Hurricane season forecast is in the works already, believe or not!!
i will as well but mostly in lurk mode unless something big is going to happen or is happening
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i will as well but mostly in lurk mode unless something big is going to happen or is happening

Like Orca's upcoming blizzard in Vancouver this winter!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Like Orca's upcoming blizzard in Vancouver this winter!!
iam watchin and waitin

Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I guess I believe in a stricter standard. I think that the 2 or 3 most damaging and deadly storms in a decade should be retired, not every storm that does a lot of damage someplace but isn't really catastrophic. Tomas caused a lot of damage in St. Lucia but he wasn't a catastrophic storm. Not really. It's like retiring football player or baseball player numbers. Do it too often and you run out of numbers and quietly have to slip the numbers or names back in later.


Did you read Patrap's comment? Names are able to be reused:

"Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years"

So please don't worry about running out of names. :-)
ghost of tomas

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Did you read Patrap's comment? Names are able to be reused:

"Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years"

So please don't worry about running out of names. :-)


That's a good point.
Stan also killed about 1,600 people in Central America. Most of those in were in a small village at the Base of Atitlan( an active volcano in Guatemala)

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It's like the stan situation of 05. he made hurricane statues and the name had never been used. although the one other reason why stan was retired was it caused quite a bit of damage which shary didnt.
so that one is more of my toss up.
I suspect that some really deadly hurricanes's names like Katrina, Mitch, Fifi and Flora will never be used again. Nor should they be.
Regarding 2011...


Its going to be active.
Quoting lhwhelk:
Notice that the words are "it cannot be reused for at least 10 years." The name is not permanently gone. I would guess that in 10 years, the powers-that-be would review whether a storm's name ("Katrina") is still in the public mind, and then decide whether to re-use it. They're not going to run out of names!


Anyone know of a name that's been unretired?
List of all names retired since naming began:


Agnes 1972
Alicia 1983
Allen 1980
Allison 2001
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
Audrey 1957
Betsy 1965
Beulah 1967
Bob 1991
Camille 1969
Carla 1961
Carmen 1974
Carol 1954
Celia 1970
Cesar 1996
Charley 2004
Cleo 1964
Connie 1955
David 1979
Dean 2007
Dennis 2005
Diana 1990
Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Dora 1964
Edna 1968
Elena 1985
Eloise 1975
Fabian 2003
Felix 2007
Fifi 1974
Flora 1963
Floyd 1999
Fran 1996
Frances 2004
Frederic 1979
Georges 1998
Gilbert 1988
Gloria 1985
Gustav 2008
Hattie 1961
Hazel 1954
Hilda 1964
Hortense 1996
Hugo 1989
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ione 1955
Iris 2001
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004
Janet 1955
Jeanne 2004
Joan 1988
Juan 2003
Katrina 2005
Keith 2000
Klaus 1990
Lenny 1999
Lili 2002
Luis 1995
Marilyn 1995
Michelle 2001
Mitch 1998
Noel 2007
Opal 1995
Paloma 2008
Rita 2005
Roxanne 1995
Stan 2005
Wilma 2005
doesn't seem to be any retired names coming back?
Link
Quoting charlottefl:
List of all names retired since naming began:


Agnes 1972
Alicia 1983
Allen 1980
Allison 2001
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
Audrey 1957
Betsy 1965
Beulah 1967
Bob 1991
Camille 1969
Carla 1961
Carmen 1974
Carol 1954
Celia 1970
Cesar 1996
Charley 2004
Cleo 1964
Connie 1955
David 1979
Dean 2007
Dennis 2005
Diana 1990
Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Dora 1964
Edna 1968
Elena 1985
Eloise 1975
Fabian 2003
Felix 2007
Fifi 1974
Flora 1963
Floyd 1999
Fran 1996
Frances 2004
Frederic 1979
Georges 1998
Gilbert 1988
Gloria 1985
Gustav 2008
Hattie 1961
Hazel 1954
Hilda 1964
Hortense 1996
Hugo 1989
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ione 1955
Iris 2001
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004
Janet 1955
Jeanne 2004
Joan 1988
Juan 2003
Katrina 2005
Keith 2000
Klaus 1990
Lenny 1999
Lili 2002
Luis 1995
Marilyn 1995
Michelle 2001
Mitch 1998
Noel 2007
Opal 1995
Paloma 2008
Rita 2005
Roxanne 1995
Stan 2005
Wilma 2005


Ike wasn't retired???
Quoting docrod:
doesn't seem to be any retired names coming back?
Link


Carol - which tore through my neighborhood :-0 - was reused before being retroactively retired.

"“Carol” was used again to denote a hurricane in the mid-Atlantic Ocean in 1965. However, because the name does not appear after that time, it is assumed that the name was retired retrospectively for the damages caused by the 1954 storm of the same name."

Link
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Ike wasn't retired???


It's in the list, right between Hugo and Inez...
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


It's in the list, right between Hugo and Inez...


sorry I thought they were in year order
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be active...And its going to start out a La Nina, unlike this year.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be even more active...Chart shows a strengthening La Nina at the end.

so it may not be in tell 2013 in tell we see other EL Nino?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alex - 45% ~One Of The Only June Hurricanes

Bonnie - No

Colin - No

Danielle - No

Earl - No

Fiona - No

Gaston - No

Hermine - No

Igor - 55% ~Could Be Upgraded to Cat 5

Julia - No

Karl - 95% ~Caused Catastrophic Damage for Mexico

Lisa - No

Matthew - No

Nicole - No

Otto - No

Paula - No

Richard - No

Shary - 60% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane

Tomas - 70% ~Hasn't been used before - Became Hurricane - caused 540 Million $ in damage

I would bump Igor up to 65% due to the fact he caused significant damage to Newfoundland.
57. CybrTeddy 10:51 AM PST on November 07, 2010 Hide this comment.
Karl - Gone.
Igor - Gone, Newfoundland requested retirement.
Tomas - Gone, Virgin Islands will probably request retirement.
Alex - Possibly.. 2 billion to Texas/Mexico was caused.
Matthew - Possibly, heavy damage to Central America and heavy loss of life. Would be the 2nd TS to be retired in the Atlantic basin.

Ameister12 better yet bump it up too 100% see post above
Quoting Tazmanian:
so it may not be in tell 2013 in tell we see other EL Nino?


Possibly.
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles
Quoting all4hurricanes:
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles


Rick???

I think you mean Richard.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be active...And its going to start out a La Nina, unlike this year.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be even more active...Chart shows a strengthening La Nina at the end.


Wow, that La Nina forecast looks pretty unanimous.
Bye Tomas.
From NOAA:

The NHC/TPC does not control the naming of tropical storms. Instead, a list of names has been established by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. For Atlantic hurricanes, there is actually one list for each of six years. In other words, one list is repeated every seventh year. The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
My Retirement Picks
Alex 50% (big damage in Mexico but Mexico doesn't like to retire storms
Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine 0%
Igor 40% bad in newfoundland but only caused 200 mil
Julia 0%
Karl 100% 5+ billion in damage
Lisa 0%
Matt 60% 2 billion and 200 dead but NHC is weird with developing countries, and he was only a ts
Nicole 5% only 250mil very spread out
Otto Paula Rick Shary 0%
Tomas 90% severe damage in Lesser Antilles



so the M storm was olny a TS that dos not mean any thing TS some times can be this has bad has hurricanes if i re call the A storm of 2001 did lots of flooding down in TX some where so TS can do this has bad has hurricane dos and they can get Retire this will be the olny 2nd TS too be Retire
96. KRL
Another lucky year for South Florida! Thank you Mother Nature!

:)
Well there goes Tomas...
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

That one was a persistent little bugger. :|
000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE
...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Interesting...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Interesting...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


that is put on most storms that die out to sea
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


that is put on most storms that die out to sea


Ok...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Poll: How many more storms (including TD or STD) this season?

A- 0
B- 1
C- 2
D- 3
E- 4+

I say B. There's always that one surprise storm in active seasons. Probably SW Caribbean and moving NE. I think we will also flirt with a STS west of Bermuda in december which will ultimately not be named.
...Just gut feelings obviously, not based on anything.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


Ike wasn't retired???
reread the list, ike was retired.
Seems like Tomas is headed east and has some convection firing to the NE.

Quoting winter123:
Poll: How many more storms (including TD or STD) this season?

A- 0
B- 1
C- 2
D- 3
E- 4+

I say B. There's always that one surprise storm in active seasons. Probably SW Caribbean and moving NE. I think we will also flirt with a STS west of Bermuda in december which will ultimately not be named.
...Just gut feelings obviously, not based on anything.


C
108. IKE
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.

Quoting IKE:
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.



Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.
Quoting IKE:
...TOMAS LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 7
Location: 26.1°N 69.1°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb.......

RIP Tomas and this season.





this season is not overe yet IKE so its not RIP in tell NOV 30th
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.



or am I the season is not RIP in tell nov 30th in tell then we can pick up 2 more storm
112. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...You were ripping a lot of things earlier this season...

I'm not buying the "Rip this season" phrase.


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.
Quoting Tazmanian:




this season is not overe yet IKE so its not RIP in tell NOV 30th


Technically yes, but actually the season is not over until December 31, or after that in the rare case a storm carries over to January. I know the odds are low, but you can't say RIP season until at least christmas.
Quoting IKE:


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.



OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST
IKE the season season is NOT finished


The name "Jal" means water in Hindi.
117. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST


I'll say what I want to on here. If you don't like it stick me on your ignore list.

Think I will you anyway...bye.

113 and counting.

Quoting IKE:


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.

It's not over yet until 30th nov, or 31th december
he doesnt annoy me and has a right to what he says and he hopes for the best for any storm and the season.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Check out this report deep in the Caribbean. That latest cold front is still going strong way down at 16 degrees North Latitude.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: N (360%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant
Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and falling
Air Temperature: 78.1 F
Dew Point: 59.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.3 F
Quoting Tazmanian:
man i cant staned that IKE he say things that annyos evere one on


and you no what he nevere right and nevere will be i feel sorry for him

Why don't you give it a rest. Ike can say what he feels anytime!
Cold front absorbing tomas is a stationary front now
Link
Turn on the NCEP Fronts
125. IKE
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Why don't you give it a rest. Ike can say what he feels anytime!


LOL...he's all pissed off. You would think I just said something bad about his family.

I guess 19 storms..numerous deaths...severe floods...millions and millions of damage isn't enough....and all I did was RIP a killer storm and the season.
As of this writing, just 205 days, 5 hours, and 16 minutes until the 2011 hurricane season gets underway.

Woo-hoo!!!

;-)
Quoting IKE:


LOL...he's all pissed off. You would think I just said something bad about his family.

I guess 19 storms..numerous deaths...severe floods...millions and millions of damage isn't enough....and all I did was RIP a killer storm and the season.

Stop saying RIP to the season. Its not over
128. IKE
Quoting Vincent4989:

Stop saying RIP to the season. Its not over


114.
Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.
Quoting IKE:


114.

What do you mean 114?
This?
OH PLZS GIVE IT A REST
Quoting Autistic2:
Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.

No hurricanes had hit the U.S, but not over for Caribbean.
More than likely the Southeast Us won't have the harsh winter that they had last winter!
133. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
Me thinks this season is done for the U.S.



Ike, lol. He seems to have so many buttons to push.
Officially, hurricane season is not over. But the fact is that nobody knows if it's over in reality. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and in my opinion the juvenile bashing is pathetic. We all, as humans, should respect others opinions no matter what they are.
It's not like saying the season is over will make it true it just means you will probably be wrong Hurricanes are not controlled by people and certainly not this blog. The reason I mention Matt being a ts effecting his retirement is because many devastating storm have not retired because of their intensity although that has lessened in decent years. Perhaps the Central Americans will feel shamed if they admit a TS caused all this destruction, or maybe the nhc will think that it was the fault of the country not the storm like they did with Gordon. I think by all means Matthew should be retired
Quoting charlestonscnanny:
Ike, lol. He seems to have so many buttons to push.


I don't think so; it's just that as he is a downcaster there are many times more wishcasters to gang up on and antagonize him. I think he's showed remarkable restraint this season.
138. DDR
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
Officially, hurricane season is not over. But the fact is that nobody knows if it's over in reality. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, and in my opinion the juvenile bashing is pathetic. We all, as humans, should respect others opinions no matter what they are.

well said!
let IKE be
137. Don't Annoy Me! I totally agree and I was siding with Ike about one of his bashers. Some on here get mad at too many things. Everybody has an opinion and should be free to express that opinion without being criticized. I mainly lurk but had to jump in here. Sorry you took it the wrong way, guess I didn't word it correctly.
I'm surprised that Fay was never retired, considering that it caused so much flooding in Central Fl.
Quoting lightningbolt73:
I'm surprised that Fay was never retired, considering that it caused so much flooding in Central Fl.

That is so random compared to what people are doing right now in the blog, but it's true XD
Quoting charlestonscnanny:
137. Don't Annoy Me! I totally agree and I was siding with Ike about one of his bashers. Some on here get mad at too many things. Everybody has an opinion and should be free to express that opinion without being criticized. I mainly lurk but had to jump in here. Sorry you took it the wrong way, guess I didn't word it correctly.


Yeah, I know, I didn't take it the wrong way, your post 123 shows that. Some on here really do need to step away from the computer, don't they.
Quoting mossyhead:
reread the list, ike was retired.
he was retired, they replaced him with the name Isaias
You know I wouldn't write off the Season just yet, but this is what I observed from most past seasons , of course everyone is different. Once you have a cold front that has dipped that far south and lingered as long as this , that usually spells the end of the season for the western Caribbean once something does not spin up on the tailend of it. In this case I would have to agree with Ike and say good riddance to Tomas and hopefully the 2010 Season is finally over!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That is so random compared to what people are doing right now in the blog, but it's true XD
Maybe it will distract people from the inane "seasons over/not over" argument.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That is so random compared to what people are doing right now in the blog, but it's true XD
well fay was pretty weird little girl. she survived running over all of the big caribbean islands and strengthened over florida before dieing in the panhandle.
I'm not mad at IKE, and didn't mean to start anything on the blog.

Its just gets tiring when IKE posts "RIP XXX" all the time, that's all.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Maybe it will distract people from the inane "seasons over/not over" argument.


Ha! For some, the season never will end. Inane - word of the day. lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not mad at IKE, and didn't mean to start anything on the blog.

Its just gets tiring when IKE posts "RIP XXX" all the time, that's all.


Here's a novel concept to relieve you of your suffering:
Action: Quote | Ignore User

150. IKE
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Here's a novel concept to relieve you of your suffering:
Action: Quote | Ignore User



Exactly. Solves his problem.

..............................................

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON TOMAS
...WHICH HAS BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
TOMAS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

151. beell
I think there is at least a 50/50 chance that that the season is over. I'll take a coin-flip chance on "over".

Some of us like living on the edge!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Here's a novel concept to relieve you of your suffering:
Action: Quote | Ignore User



Never use it. I enjoy the insanity, makes me feel normal lol ;)

Evening all!
Tomas appears to be a strengthening "whatever". Deep thunderstorm activity can be seen building in the image below, which has now covered at least 30% to 40% of the system's center.

Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Here's a novel concept to relieve you of your suffering:
Action: Quote | Ignore User



That's the problem though.

1.) I don't put people on ignore.

2.) I enjoy IKE's posts...the ones not dealing with "RIP".
155. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tomas appears to be a strengthening "whatever". Deep thunderstorm activity can be seen building in the image below, which has now covered at least 30% to 40% of the system's center.



Doesnt look extratropical, at least not yet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's the problem though.

1.) I don't put people on ignore.

2.) I enjoy IKE's posts...the ones not dealing with "RIP".


I dig Ike too! Hey, at least he has a good heart! He roots for everyone.
Quoting lightningbolt73:
I'm surprised that Fay was never retired, considering that it caused so much flooding in Central Fl.


Not to say that it shouldn't have been, but only 2 TSs have been retired - Allison (2001) and Edna (1968). And Edna was one of those reused and then retired retroactively cases.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's the problem though.

1.) I don't put people on ignore.

2.) I enjoy IKE's posts...the ones not dealing with "RIP".


Alternative solution: selective reading.
Quoting doorman79:


Never use it. I enjoy the insanity, makes me feel normal lol ;)

Evening all!

I never put anyone on ignore, to me doing it shows that you can dish out, but can't take back, also a lack of self confidence , but that's just my personal opinion, if you put everyone that you dislike or disagree with on ignore, you'll soon find that you're talking with yourself or only persons in your camp of thinking, diverse thinking and sound debate is what it takes to accomplish difficult tasks, not when everyone is in sound agreement!Just my 2 cents eveyone have a great night!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Not to say that it shouldn't have been, but only 2 TSs have been retired - Allison (2001) and Edna (1968). And Edna was one of those reused and then retired retroactively cases.
I am a little surprised that they did not retire Edna in 1954....Link
Quoting stormpetrol:

I never put anyone on ignore, to me doing it shows that you can dish out, but can't take back, also a lack of self confidence , but that's just my personal opinion, if you put everyone that you dislike or disagree with on ignore, you'll soon find that you're talking with yourself or only persons in your camp of thinking, diverse thinking and sound debate is what it takes to accomplish difficult tasks, not when everyone is in sound agreement!Just my 2 cents eveyone have a great night!


Sounds like our politicians lol! Or lack of!
Ike,

we had our first frost this morning! How bout your way?
Good evening, it looks like milder conditions across the Gulf, including Florida.

From 8 p.m. NHC...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF DISCUSSION.

MARINE OBS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE NORTHEAST 5 KT TO 10 KT SFC FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD S OF 28N.

AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS...EXPECT SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NO CHANGE IN WINDS TO CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA.

Walk to the beach with Mother showed ocean and wind were up but not terribly cold wind.
Quite a nice evening weatherwise with just a nip in the air.
165. IKE
Quoting doorman79:
Ike,

we had our first frost this morning! How bout your way?


I didn't see any at my house this morning. Low was 36.

Other areas away from lakes may have had a frost. Freeze warning for tonight.
Quoting IKE:


I didn't see any at my house this morning. Low was 36.

Other areas away from lakes may have had a frost. Freeze warning for tonight.


We are back on the warm up slightly. Was fun trying to keep a 6 year old in a deer stand this weekend lol!
168. IKE
Quoting doorman79:


We are back on the warm up slightly. Was fun trying to keep a 6 year old in a deer stand this weekend lol!


Looks like a warming trend starting tomorrow.
Tomas is gone, off to die in the open Atlantic.

Who knows what is left of Hurricane Season of 2010. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Quoting stormpetrol:

I never put anyone on ignore, to me doing it shows that you can dish out, but can't take back, also a lack of self confidence , but that's just my personal opinion,


IMO there are several good reasons to ignore someone:

1. Trolls. If everyone ignores trolls they go away.
2. Irritants. If someone's irritating you and you ignore them, you don't get irritated any more. And you obviate the opportunity to aggravate the situation by giving it back to them.
3. To express and promote self-confidence and consideration, by being able to say "I don't care what you think" in a way that benefits the blog, not destroys it.

I think we all have our dislikes and disagreements, but you're right - there's no need to ignore everyone you don't like or agree with. Just a few certain ones.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


IMO there are several good reasons to ignore someone:

1. Trolls. If everyone ignores trolls they go away.
2. Irritants. If someone's irritating you and you ignore them, you don't get irritated any more. And you obviate the opportunity to aggravate the situation by giving it back to them.
3. To express and promote self-confidence and consideration, by being able to say "I don't care what you think" in a way that benefits the blog, not destroys it.

I think we all have our dislikes and disagreements, but you're right - there's no need to ignore everyone you don't like or agree with. Just a few certain ones.

totally agree!!
DontAnnoyMe

no one can irritate you without your permission
or annoy you for that matter imo sorry
Merapi -yesterday

There are three types of volcanic lightning:

* Extremely large volcanic eruptions, which eject gases and material high into the atmosphere, can trigger lightning. This phenomenon was documented by Pliny The Elder during the AD79 eruption of Vesuvius, in which he perished.
* An intermediate type which comes from a volcano's vents, sometimes 1.8 miles (3 kilometers) long.
* Small spark type lightning about 3 feet (1 meter) long lasting a few milliseconds.



I don't have anyone on my ignore list. I can ignore someone by not having them on my "ignore list". I call it, skipping over the post.

Although I wish some posters would just FOCUS.
I'm focus. :)
Quoting causesandconditions:
DontAnnoyMe

no one can irritate you without your permission
or annoy you for that matter imo sorry


Exactly. Ignore = you don't have that permission.
Quoting geepy86:
I'm focus. :)


Shouldn't that be FOCUS :-/
anybody looking at the possible winter weather set up and severe weather potential later this week?
Quoting Patrap:
The Retirement of Hurricane Names

Hurricanes that have a severe impact on lives or the economy are remembered generations after the devastation they caused, and some go into weather history. The National Hurricane Center near Miami, Florida, monitors tropical disturbances in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans which could become a hurricane.

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms.

There is an exception to the retirement rule, however. Before 1979, when the first permanent six-year storm name list began, some storm names were simply not used anymore. For example, in 1966, "Fern" was substituted for "Frieda," and no reason was cited.

Below is a list of Atlantic Ocean retired names, the years the hurricanes occurred, and the areas they affected. There are, however, a great number of destructive storms not included on this list because they occurred before the hurricane naming convention was established in 1950.

Atlantic Storms Retired Into Hurricane History

Agnes (1972): Florida, Northeast U.S.
Alicia (1983): North Texas
Allen (1980): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Allison (2001): northeast Texas
Andrew (1992): Bahamas, South Florida, Louisiana
Anita (1977): Mexico
Audrey (1957): Louisiana, North Texas
Betsy (1965): Bahamas, Southeast Florida, Southeast Louisiana
Beulah (1967): Antilles, Mexico, South Texas
Bob (1991): North Carolina & Northeast U.S.
Camille (1969): Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama
Carla (1961): Texas
Carmen (1974): Mexico, Central Louisiana
Carol (1954): Northeast U.S.
Cesar (1996): Honduras
Celia (1970): South Texas
Charley (2004): Jamaica, western Cuba, Florida
Cleo (1964): Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Cuba, Southeast Florida
Connie (1955): North Carolina
David (1979): Lesser Antilles, Hispa%uFFFDola, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dennis (2005): Alabama, Florida
Diana (1990): Mexico
Diane (1955): Mid-Atlantic U.S. & Northeast U.S.
Donna (1960): Bahamas, Florida and Eastern U.S.
Dora (1964): Northeast Florida
Edna (1968)
Elena (1985): Mississippi, Alabama, Western Florida
Eloise (1975): Antilles, Northwest Florida, Alabama
Fabian (2003): Bermuda
Fifi (1974): Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Flora (1963): Haiti, Cuba
Floyd (1999): North Carolina, eastern seaboard
Fran (1996): North Carolina
Frances (2004): Florida
Frederic (1979): Alabama and Mississippi
Georges (1998): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Mississippi
Gilbert (1988): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico
Gloria (1985): North Carolina, Northeast U.S.
Hattie (1961): Belize, Guatemala
Hazel (1954): Antilles, North and South Carolina
Hilda (1964): Louisiana
Hortense (1996)
Hugo (1989): Antilles, South Carolina
Inez (1966): Lesser Antilles, Hispanola, Cuba, Florida Keys, Mexico
Ione (1955): North Carolina
Iris (2001): Belize, Guatemala
Isabel (2003): North Carolina
Isidore (2002): Cuba, northern Yucatan Peninsula, Louisiana
Ivan (2004): Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, western Cuba, Alabama, western Florida panhandle
Janet (1955): Lesser Antilles, Belize, Mexico
Jeanne (2004): Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, northern Bahamas, Florida
Joan (1988): Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, Nicaragua (Crossed into the Pacific and became Miriam)
Juan (2003): Nova Scotia
Katrina (2005): South Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
Keith (2000): Belize, Mexico
Klaus (1990): Martinique
Lenny (1999): Antilles
Lili (2002): Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Louisiana
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995): Bermuda
Michelle (2001): Central America, Cuba, northern Bahamas
Mitch (1998): Central America, Nicaragua, Honduras
Opal (1995): Florida Panhandle
Rita (2005): northeast Texas, western Louisiana
Roxanne (1995): Yucatan Peninsula
Stan (2005): Mexico
Wilma (2005): northeast Yucatan Peninsula, Florida


Gaston should have been on that list. 8 deaths, Millions in flood damage in Richmond in 2004... seems to me that Gaston deserved at least some consideration for 'retired' status.
Quoting tornadodude:
anybody looking at the possible winter weather set up and severe weather potential later this week?


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070841
SPC AC 070841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END
. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070841
SPC AC 070841

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010


I think the mid south may see a decent outbreak if there is enough moisture
Quoting tornadodude:
anybody looking at the possible winter weather set up and severe weather potential later this week?
Hey T-Dude...What are your thoughts for the possible winter weather...
Quoting IKE:


I don't give a darn what I was RIP-ing earlier this season. I'd rather root against anyone experiencing anything like what St. Lucia experienced with Tomas.

Thank God this season is finished for the blogs sanity.


Too late for the blogs sanity.
Quoting sunlinepr:
By 2050, Global sea temps will be 20 degrees warmer!!!
This will be a typical Atlantic Hurricane season

1 Cat. 5 every 5 minutes.... 1 Cat 4 every 4 minutes.... and so on....



Here we go with global warming, its impossible for a cat 5 to develop every 5 minutes, if they are close to each other then one of them will get killed due to shear caused by the other storm's outflow or vice versa.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Shouldn't that be FOCUS :-/

oops, forgot the cap key.
Quoting hydrus:
Hey T-Dude...What are your thoughts for the possible winter weather...


there may be an ice storm in the making, depending on the moisture and if the cold air remains in place, probably over the upper midwest
From Accuweather



link
Quoting tropicfreak:


Gaston should have been on that list. 8 deaths, Millions in flood damage in Richmond in 2004... seems to me that Gaston deserved at least some consideration for 'retired' status.


Only problem with that is, the flooding was limited primarily to the Richmond area. It wasn't particularly widespread.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Here we go with global warming, its impossible for a cat 5 to develop every 5 minutes, if they are close to each other then one of them will get killed due to shear caused by the other storm's outflow or vice versa.


Sorry, was just a Bad Joke or a bit of nonsense.... to spice up the blog a little
Quoting sunlinepr:
Cool sat pic. Neat looking city lights.
Tomas is definitely looking better. But I'm sure the NHC won't resume advisories on it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Only problem with that is, the flooding was limited primarily to the Richmond area. It wasn't particularly widespread.


It even was bad enough to be put on Storm Stories. 14" of rain in one hour, and the Shockoe bottom was hardest hit, with over 5 feet of water in some spots in that area.
Link
197. beell
Quoting tornadodude:
anybody looking at the possible winter weather set up and severe weather potential later this week?


Dynamically speaking, just a beautiful set-up for severe over eastern OK and the ARLATX Thursday (early guess). moving east for Friday.

Adequate moisture return very much in doubt and it may not come together until after dark.

Things can change, though.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Tomas is definitely looking better. But I'm sure the NHC won't resume advisories on it.


There's no reason for them to. Convection is a little deep, sure, but satellite imagery shows very cold air rushing into the circulation center from the west. If it isn't post-tropical now, it will be very shortly.
Quoting hydrus:
Cool sat pic. Neat looking city lights.


Many super sat pics there:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi

You can generate animated gifs also...
Quoting tornadodude:


there may be an ice storm in the making, depending on the moisture and if the cold air remains in place, probably over the upper midwest
I have not been through a bad ice storm since 1976..It was so bad that my father had to pour hot water all over the car door to open it. The whole car was encased with 3 inches of solid ice. It was rather fun to watch.
Quoting beell:


Dynamically speaking, just a beautiful set-up for severe over eastern OK and the ARLATX Thursday (early guess). moving east for Friday.

Adequate moisture return very much in doubt and it may not come together until after dark.

Things can change, though.


yeah, the moisture is the big thing in this set up
Quoting hydrus:
I have not been through a bad ice storm since 1976..It was so bad that my father had to pour hot water all over the car door to open it. The whole car was encased with 3 inches of solid ice. It was rather fun to watch.


oh wow ha

been through that, its rough thats for sure
I wonder if it will not weaken and baroclinically strengthen instead and head more north towards Bermuda as a gale center.
Quoting tropicfreak:


It even was bad enough to be put on Storm Stories. 14" of rain in one hour, and the Shockoe bottom was hardest hit, with over 5 feet of water in some spots in that area.
Link
I do not believe the 14 inches of rain in an hour...That would be a world record..Record Value 305mm (12")
Date of Record 22/6/1947
Length of Record 1948-present
Instrumentation Recording Rain Gauge
Geospatial Location Holt, MO, USA [39°27'N, 94°20'W, elevation: 263.11m (863ft)]
Put your lights on....

Quoting tropicfreak:


It even was bad enough to be put on Storm Stories. 14" of rain in one hour, and the Shockoe bottom was hardest hit, with over 5 feet of water in some spots in that area.
Link


Maybe it was a little worse than I thought. But I'm still holding firm to my opinion. I'm quite stubborn on the retirement issue. :P
Quoting tornadodude:


oh wow ha

been through that, its rough thats for sure
Up here on the plateau, there is damage that is still visible from the last bad ice storm they had here 16 years ago.
Quoting hydrus:
Up here on the plateau, there is damage that is still visible from the last bad ice storm they had here 16 years ago.


wow, thats crazy!

Id watch out for some weather on friday, possible severe storms
Quoting hydrus:
I do not believe the 14 inches of rain in an hour...That would be a world record..Record Value 305mm (12")
Date of Record 22/6/1947
Length of Record 1948-present
Instrumentation Recording Rain Gauge
Geospatial Location Holt, MO, USA [39°27'N, 94°20'W, elevation: 263.11m (863ft)]


I meant 14 inches of rain in 3 hours sorry. Typing error.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Many super sat pics there:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi

You can generate animated gifs also...
Gracias..:)
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, the moisture is the big thing in this set up


NWS winter weather impact graphics here.
Create your own animated Sat. Gif of your city (if listed here) - In this link

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_met/PUBLIC/nexsat/pages/city_zooms/nexsat_city_zooms.html


Link

Click on the city and then click Animate, select Very large photo and Most Recent.... Wait for the animation to develop.... Copy and paste to the blog...
Quoting tornadodude:


wow, thats crazy!

Id watch out for some weather on friday, possible severe storms
There have been more deaths in Tennessee from tornadoes in the the past ten years then any other state...I will be watching..
214. beell
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, the moisture is the big thing in this set up


I bet we still get at least a narrow warm sector over LA and AR.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010

Quoting hydrus:
There have been more deaths in Tennessee from tornadoes in the the past ten years then any other state...I will be watching..


yeah, be sure to keep an eye to the sky
Quoting beell:


I bet we still get at least a narrow warm sector over LA and AR.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST SUN NOV 07 2010
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...WITH BROAD
TROUGHING DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...AS THE
ATLANTIC BLOCKING PATTERN GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER... VARIABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING
THIS PROCESS...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS. WHILE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS STILL APPEARS A POSSIBILITY
FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
END. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED LIMITED/ SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/07/2010



yeah, if there is enough moisture, I could see there being a possible significant outbreak, this system will likely have the dynamics to work with
I made a new blog regarding this system link
Quoting tornadodude:
I made a new blog regarding this system link


How's the van project going??
Quoting sunlinepr:


How's the van project going??


havent really started on it yet, I have some time to work on it, plenty of long cold winter nights to work on it
Quoting tornadodude:


havent really started on it yet, I have some time to work on it, plenty of long cold winter nights to work on it


You're going to make it yourself or have friends / partner with knowledge or are you going to pay for that job?
Quoting sunlinepr:


You're going to make it yourself or have friends / partner with knowledge or are you going to pay for that job?


Well I already have the van, and I'm sure my friends will help me, and yeah, it will be out of pocket
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I already have the van, and I'm sure my friends will help me, and yeah, it will be out of pocket


Hope you have a happy outcome with that....
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hope you have a happy outcome with that....


thanks!
Im looking to get some of this for the vehicle, and see what I can do

Hail Protection Netting


Quoting sunlinepr:

Absolutely awesome!
Quoting tornadodude:
Im looking to get some of this for the vehicle, and see what I can do

Hail Protection Netting




You know more than me about that, but I imagine that you have to place that net at least 3 or more inches over the roof or front / back glass of your van, so that it will absorb the hail impact.... Maybe like a curtain that you can drop or lower down in your van glass windows whenever you detect hail from a Tornado???
Quoting sunlinepr:


You know more than me about that, but I imagine that you have to place that net at least 3 or more inches over the roof or front / back glass of your van, so that it will absorb the hail impact.... Maybe like a curtain that you can drop or lower down in your van glass windows whenever you detect hail from a Tornado???


what I am planing on doing with it, is to build a roof like frame from the hood and windshield. a frame with the netting in the middle



kinda like this, but picture a roof extension? ha hard to explain
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Absolutely awesome!


Charleston Sat View???
231. JLPR2
Quoting tornadodude:


what I am planing on doing with it, is to build a roof like frame from the hood and windshield. a frame with the netting in the middle



kinda like this, but picture a roof extension? ha hard to explain


I want that car. :D
Quoting JLPR2:


I want that car. :D


me too man, me too haha xD
Quoting tornadodude:


what I am planing on doing with it, is to build a roof like frame from the hood and windshield. a frame with the netting in the middle



kinda like this, but picture a roof extension? ha hard to explain


Sure That photo shows the concept: Very clever... You can even build that roof, so that when it rains, collects water for your van storage tank (washing dishes, bathing, etc.)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sure That photo shows the concept: Very clever... You can even build that roof, so that when it rains, collects water for your van storage tank (washing dishes, bathing, etc.)


hmm, that's a thought to entertain
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #29
DEPRESSION, FORMER JAL (BOB05-2010)
5:30 AM IST November 8 2010
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh moved west-northwestwards, weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Jal lays centered near 14.0N 79.0E over Royalaseema & neighborhood.

It would move west-northwestwards and weaken further gradually.
Quoting tornadodude:


hmm, that's a thought to entertain


Look at this link from someone living in a Van : My Campervan

Link

Europe Van

Link

Main link: Car, Van and Campervan living.

Link
This is the van that guy used: Sure quite expensive....

maybe some thoughts I can implement into my van
2010 Hurricane Season In Review; A Storm Or Two Still Possible My Final Blog Post Of The Season, Unless Something Major Occurs Storm Wise. Check out my version of the season in review!
240. JLPR2


Impressive.
Quoting tornadodude:
maybe some thoughts I can implement into my van


Well bad post I made....
I'm watching this video from Youtube.... The guy shows you how he prepared his van... Very informative....

Link
384-hr Temperature forecast shows really cool weather for the United States. This is for 18Z, or 2:00 PM AST.

Temperatures at or below the freezing point cover most of the Northeast, and Great Lakes region.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
384-hr Temperature forecast shows really cool weather for the United States. This is for 18Z, or 2:00 PM AST.

Temperatures at or below the freezing point cover most of the Northeast, and Great Lakes region.


compared to what the northeast and great lakes are getting right now, it's about the same. so it's more like a double dose. not something new
NWS INDY



A calm, clear night will prevail across Central Indiana as high pressure continues to influence the area. Overnight lows will be a tad warmer tonight though with readings in the low to mid 30s.
Quoting tornadodude:
almost looks like a Nor' Easter or is it actually?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
almost looks like a Nor' Easter or is it actually?


Im pretty sure by definition it is, but not a very impressive one, but there may be some significant rainfall across Maine.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
2010 Hurricane Season In Review; A Storm Or Two Still Possible My Final Blog Post Of The Season, Unless Something Major Occurs Storm Wise. Check out my version of the season in review!


Liked that summary, though impressed with that big amount of casualties....
And On That Note. G'nite All! Probably won't be on for the next few days.
down right miserable

Augusta State Airport
Lat: 44.32 Lon: -69.8 Elev: 350
Last Update on Nov 7, 9:53 pm EST

Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy

35 F
(2 C)
Humidity: 89 %
Wind Speed: N 23 G 32 MPH
Barometer: 29.86" (1011.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 32 F (0 C)
Wind Chill: 23 F (-5 C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


IMO there are several good reasons to ignore someone:

1. Trolls. If everyone ignores trolls they go away.
2. Irritants. If someone's irritating you and you ignore them, you don't get irritated any more. And you obviate the opportunity to aggravate the situation by giving it back to them.
3. To express and promote self-confidence and consideration, by being able to say "I don't care what you think" in a way that benefits the blog, not destroys it.

I think we all have our dislikes and disagreements, but you're right - there's no need to ignore everyone you don't like or agree with. Just a few certain ones.


Obviate = word of the day. Kudos!
dead blog, that's for sure



the radar nicely shows how far south this cold air goes
255. JRRP
it's 38 degrees in Tallahassee Florida, and 45 degrees here in Washington Indiana

Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Nov 7, 9:53 pm CST

Fair

45 °F
(7 °C)
Humidity: 48 %
Wind Speed: S 6 MPH
Barometer: 30.15" (1020.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 26 °F (-3 °C)
Wind Chill: 42 °F (6 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.



Tallahassee Regional Airport
Lat: 30.4 Lon: -84.35 Elev: 69
Last Update on Nov 7, 10:53 pm EST

Fair

38 °F
(3 °C)
Humidity: 83 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.27" (1024.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 33 °F (1 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1113 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

MAZ004-012-026-NHZ015-081215-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0012.101108T0800Z-101108T1600Z/
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...MILFORD...
WORCESTER...AYER...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1113 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY.

THE ADVISORY NOW INCLUDES THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS IN
WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO THE MIX TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO...WITH GLAZE AMOUNTS LESS
THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING AND
WALKING DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS
AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS
NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE
SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

Brutal

Augusta State Airport
Lat: 44.32 Lon: -69.8 Elev: 350
Last Update on Nov 7, 10:53 pm EST

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy

35 °F
(2 °C)
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: N 21 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1010.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 33 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 24 °F (-4 °C)
Visibility: 3.00 mi.
time to take a break??
Quoting remembercleo:
time to take a break??


take 5.. months or so ha
Hey dude
howdy lol

decent weather?
So long Tomas and so long 2010 season!
Yep, starting to warm up :(
Pocatello, Pocatello Regional Airport
Last Update on 07 Nov 20:53 MST


Lt Rain

47°F
(8°C) Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: S 3 MPH

Barometer: 29.87 in (1010.50 mb)
Dewpoint: 40°F (4°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:


Here's something from a lurker:

Think Chris Rock/Richard Pryor

http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/full-list-of-stuff-white-people-like/ and,

http://www.poodwaddle.com/worldclock.swf

Just for fun, although the latter site is a bit sobering.

Love this blog and I see things are calming down a bit. My thoughts go out to those affected by flooding in Haiti and the Antilles islands.

Peace, out.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Aerial Views of Haiti the Day After Hurricane Tomas


That's bad news. Water not that deep, but appears to be little or no drainage exc. for the last pic.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


That's bad news. Water not that deep, but appears to be little or no drainage exc. for the last pic.


Yea the cholera is now probably throughly dispersed all over the place. One way or another life, lifestyles and the way that country operates is about to change forever I think. Going on "as is" isn't going to be an option any longer I feel.
271. xcool
buzzz
272. xcool


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #30
DEPRESSION, FORMER JAL (BOB05-2010)
8:30 AM IST November 8 2010
==========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression, Former Jal over Rayalaseema & neighbourhood moved northwestwards and lays centered over Rayalaseema, or about 50 km northeast of Anantapur.

It would move northwestwards and weaken further gradually.
12n/70w
low pressure area visible along Venezuela nw coast... to be 22L?
Very lopsided temperatures in the US again; the east is still in the cooler, while the west is in the hotbox, neither for the first time this fall--or, judging by long-term forecasts, the last.

Unseasonable cold is relegated to areas east of the Mississippi, where 26 record lows have been set in the past 24 hours, A few examples: Three Rivers, Michigan, tied its old record of 19; it reached 50 in Ft. Lauderdale, a new record beating the old one by a single degree; the 27 in Greenville, Alabama, tied an old record; and right here in Naples, we tied a 56-year-old record for the date of 48.

It's a different story, however, out west, where 43 record highs were set yesterday. Normally cold, snowy, and windswept by now, it was 77 in Colstrip, Montana; 80 in Mullen, Nebraska; 79 in Lakewood, Colorado; and even a balmy 65 in Tower Falls, Wyoming--which lies within the confines of Yellowstone National Park. Very strange, indeed...

The blob of warm air in the west will be moving eastward, with highs throughout the central plains and midwest today forecast to be well above average in spots; in parts of South Dakota, for examples, temps are predicted to run 25 or more degrees above average. It'll be much cooler west of the Rockies, however, with some areas 15 to 20 degrees below normal, while back east a few lingering pockets of cool will remain, with the deep southeast expected to stay a bit below normal for the day. For the coming week, it's expected to be pretty cold throughout most of the US, especially in the west and southwest, though the northeast is forecast to be unseasonably warm. Finally, for the entire month of November, the west and north central parts of the country are expected to be very warm, and no part of the country is expected to be cold overall.
276. IKE
So nice to read....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



yes remembercleo it may very well be there is a good upper level anticyclone on top of it and also has good 850 vort and stacked with 700 and 500 mb but weaker and got good Upper Divergence and Lower Convergence also has weak steering so yes it need to be watched closely
not sure about tropical weather but the island weather is perfect cool in the morning beautiful all day.
00Z GFS is showing another 2009/2010 winter with SNOW close to the Gulf Coast next week. GFS also shows a stormy mid to late November for FL which is very uncharacteristic of a La Nina. So it goes to show you even when you have La Nina it really depends on the wx patterns and how they set up and it appears FL is in for another cold and wet winter. This could be one serious Artic Blast coming late next week.
Morning ALL - just check those Aerial Pics of Haiti (thanks JF - post 267) Geeze, talk about a breeding ground for disease -- poor Haiti-- nothing short of Living Hell - they are still paying the price for Colonialism - when the French insisted they pay off their debts b/4 they could use whatever money they had for education you gotta wonder....

heading off to work -- cooler temps in SWFL equal FRISKY YOUNG HORSES -- wonder what they will teach me today : )

IKE - in TOTAL agreement - ain't nothing better then see that map swirl-less
281. IKE
Quoting surfmom:
Morning ALL - just check those Aerial Pics of Haiti (thanks JF - post 267) Geeze, talk about a breeding ground for disease -- poor Haiti-- nothing short of Living Hell - they are still paying the price for Colonialism - when the French insisted they pay off their debts b/4 they could use whatever money they had for education you gotta wonder....

heading off to work -- cooler temps in SWFL equal FRISKY YOUNG HORSES -- wonder what they will teach me today : )

IKE - in TOTAL agreement - ain't nothing better then see that map swirl-less


I'll 2nd those thoughts.

Have a nice day!
If this pans out then the growing season will be OVER in FL as freezes could be felt deep into S FL after this front passes thru with heavy rain here with snow toward GA and the Carolinas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_312.shtml
heavy snow at my house with temp around 30F...WOW ITS SNOWING OUTSIDE.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
heavy snow at my house with temp around 30F...WOW ITS SNOWING OUTSIDE.


Yeah and it looks as if much of the east may endure a powerful blast of cold wx which could yield snow as far south os GA.
I want that low to keep moving inland... get all the way over to central NY
Quoting surfmom:
...ain't nothing better then see that map swirl-less

I'll have to disagree with you on that. The reason I'm even on this site is my fascination with all weather, of course, but tropical cyclones in particular. I love watching them form; I enjoy testing my (admittedly minimal) hurricane forecasting skills; I admire the awesome sight of an Igor thrashing away at peak somewhere over the open water; I like to spend spare hours crunching the seasonal stats. And, I'll openly admit, there's always a bit of a letdown for me as each season winds down (as they always do); much as I like weather, I get little enjoyment out of watching a cold, cyclone-less Atlantic.

Now, my attitude doesn't in any way imply that I wish to see landfalling storms, especially in populated areas, and even more so in impoverished populated areas. Been there, done that, helped clean up the mess--and more than once. I suppose some on here do want to see them, and that's their prerogative, but it's not a mindset I happen to share.

Here's a rough analogy, but I think it works: some people watch Formula I racing because they want to see teams with superior driving skills and outstanding craftsmanship go head to head in a contest to see who's best. Others watch simply because they want to see fiery crashes with death and destruction. Being a part of the former group--as I am--doesn't necessarily imply I'm a part of the latter...and being letdown when race season ends doesn't mean that, either.

Having said all that: just 204 days, 14 hours, and 40 minutes until hurricane season 2011 gets underway... ;-)
its snowing at my house picture
I can tell you this Neapolitan doesn't want any problems when I'm around.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQzJqXVq3uI
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