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Three tropical systems to watch

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2006

The tropics are getting more interesting today, with three systems to discuss. None of these systems poses a significant threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda, for the last system I'll discuss.

Firstly, the low pressure system northeast of the Bahama Islands remains very disorganized today. The dry air to its west has been inhibiting its growth, despite the presence of relatively modest wind shear of 5 - 10 knots overhead. The wind shear is coming from the west, which is driving the dry air over Florida into the heart of the storm's circulation. If the wind shear had been from the opposite direction, where there is less dry air, the storm would have had a better chance of coming together. The system appears as a blob of clouds with just a few areas of deep thunderstorms, rotating about a broad and ill-defined center.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Bahamas blob.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today has been cancelled, but is scheduled to fly on Sunday if needed. The system still has the potential to organize into a tropical depression, but its window of opportunity it getting short. The system should make landfall by Sunday or Monday along the northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina coast and dissipate inland. The dry air will continue to be a problem for the storm today, but may get diluted enough Sunday to allow some organization to occur.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the three tropical disurbances to watch today.

Low 800 miles east of Bermuda
A second area to watch is a well-defined area of low pressure far out in the Atlantic at 34N 51W, about 800 miles east of Bermuda. There is deep thunderstorm activty completely surrounding the low, and QuikScat satellite wind estimates showed winds near tropical depression strength--in the 20 - 30 mph range--at 4:30 am EDT this morning. However, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in the 23-25 C range, which is below the 26 C threshhold usually needed for tropical storm formation. This low reminds me of the "Greek" storms Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta that formed in a similar location with similar SSTs last Fall. Today's storm may be able to spend enough time the next few days over waters just warm enough to allow it to make the transition to a subtropical storm and perhaps even a tropical storm. The system is not a threat to land right now, and will track westward towards Bermuda over the next few days.


Figure 3. Preliminary model tracks for the low 800 miles east of Bermuda.

Forecasted development north of Puerto Rico
Most of the global computer forecast models--with the notable exception of the UKMET model--have been consistently forecasting a tropical or non-tropical storm to form northeast of Puerto Rico on Tuesday or Wednesday. Today is the third day in a row the models been making this forecast, so I thought I'd finally mention it, despite my doubts about the liklihood of this happening. There is a lot of wind shear forecast to be in the vicinity of the forecasted low, so it may have a difficult time organizing into a tropical storm. If a storm does form here, it is forecast to move northward and threaten Bermuda late next week. SSTs are in the 26 - 28 C range in the area, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm.

I'll be back with up update on Sunday, unless there is a major development to discuss.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tropical Storm Domeng

any chance this could turn into Jelawat?
if you want to learn about tropical cyclones you should check it out :)
Jelawat?..WTF?
Here's a IR pic of 92L the NHC just put floater 2 on it...
Link
All right ya'll I am off to bed. Seen enough for one day. May check in in the Diurnal max if it looks interesting.

Night all

StormJunkie.com

Monitor power off! :)
that didnt work!!!
Link

lets see if this works...
Thanks uziel25

Considering the Technology used here and the history behind its development it seems this would be one of the most tolerant places you could find. I would hope everyone here had heard of people like Alan Turing how he lived why he died and what he did. Theres probably not a single part of this process he didnt touch.
GO IT!anyway heres another pic of 92L...
NHC has put floater 2 on it.

Here's the loop.
Link
lol he figured it out before I helped =P
looks like that wants to be beryl
nope, I just linked TS Domeng and what Hurricane23 tried to post.
It is actually Subtropical Invest 92L
Guys how can i post images in my blog?? thanks for all u guys help.hurricane23
My photos on the top left
Hmmmm anyway. The front to the N of the storm that isnt dead seems to have stalled. The circ center seems to still be moving westward??
520. MZT
The Bahamas ULL seems to be pulling in and enclosing a pool of dry air.

We've been seeing for quite a while the dry air on the western side roughly balanced with moisture from the east, as this thing struggled to stay formed. This will be interesting to watch (for diehard bloggers, anyway)
Hurricane23~ meet me in your blog I'm showing ya
MZT...I don't know where you are located, but 91L has done nothing but huff dry air since it's beginning.
Time seems to have run out MZT. Had that happened earlier today maybe. TPC dropped possible TC developent for the area. It is on it's own now and there is just not enough time for it to build to the surface.
SJ I was reading the article you posted about - Satellite Detection of Tropical Upper-Level Vortices you may want to check out 27 -30 n and 73.5 to 75 west last few frames if you get a chance considering the direction of movement of the low I think that might be one.
525. 0741
hi i been reading this great blog by jeff master for long time i live here in miami fl were we got affect by katrina and wilma i have question for all of you about model want form a tropical storm north of puetro rico i see area storm north of puerto rico do you think that area storm that model form tropical storm from????????
Shear is predicted to be high in the area 07 and should recurve out to sea. It better, I am trying to go on vacation next weekend.
Sorry actually looks like wrong direction on the spin
528. 0741
how do i change my name here?
JFLORIDA..What direction is that?
ProgressivePulse...Have a nice vacation...you won't miss anything here!
Hey at least we get a landfall of an ULL in South Florida. I think I see the Palm Fronds starting to move, lol.
Thank You Randrewl! I don't think so either but, the last 2 years I have had to cut a vaction short because of these freaking things.
I will tell you I am tired of looking at half developed storms, lol. End of last year, start of this year, I am ready for a Hurricane darnit. Of course that harmlessly curves out to sea.
I know all about that ProgressivePulse
ProgressivePulse...Go man...go! I'm with you. I think all the unemployed mets that have been predicting a hit on the east coast should have their way. Bring the next one to NYC!
low pressure should appear to rotate counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere.

- If you get a chance look at 77.5w 25n on the ir loop noting the lower level clouds.
I don't want anything to hit anyone, unfortunatly I can't control them. I just like to follow em.
Looks like a washing machine JF
ProgressivePulse...Yah I know but I'm tired of the crap! Give trhe east coast their real spanking! They could care less what happens to us!
If the disturbance north of Puerto Rico does develop, it would be pretty darn hard to pick a specific area...if any, which may be affected by it at this moment. I should clarify that my thoughts generally go out only about 2 days in respect to weather patterns and motion. This timeframe wouldn't impact anybody with this disturbance by that point in time. I wish I could come up with better than that for you, but it's an area to watch and an area to actively discuss here in my opinion.


This would be a quote from another board!
So what land could 92L impact??
Just in case y'all haven't figured this out. 91L has ceased to be!
Link
Ok guys here is a close pic of 92L...



Here is a close pick of the models for 92L...





I don't rule anything out until landfall Randrewl. ULL is not actually landfall lol so ummm crossing to land.
Miami, Florida - 29.89 in / 1012 hPa (Falling)
It's heading right for you!
Randrewl that is
Honestly, my pressure has dropped to 1010mb! Pretty amazing for the few drops of rain I have had.
Observed at: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Elevation: -

77.7 F / 25.4 C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 70 F / 21 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Pressure: 29.87 in / 1011.4 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 80 F / 27 C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 2100 ft / 640 m

(Above Ground Level)

at least I am above ground level sheesh.
ProgressivePulse..Please send everything to me!
Station FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 29.89 in -0.02 in ( Falling )
Pressure in Stuart, FL is 1010mb...and steady.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N78W...FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AS ITS SUPPORT IS NEAR 26N76W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY HAVE REACHED THE MAINLAND
U.S.A. WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE AREA OF EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE FOUND FROM
24N TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
72W AND 82W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS. THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION HAS
DIMINISHED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...
AND...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE
POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 MPH.
What do you all think of convection around 16N 87W?
Utilawatch...That is so far west...is it actually still over water?
Yes. The convection has been growing evenly and moving slightly eastward today.
Utilawatch...Do you live in the US or the Bahamas?
I live at 16.5N 87W on the island Utila on The Bay Islands of Honduras. We have light rain right now but a strong squall earlier.
Nice! My winds have completely switched back to the southeast and it is bringing back all those storms that might have hit PB County!!!!!
Utilawatch...Wow! I am so happy to know you. I know where you are. I have never visited your island but I have spent much time in Honduras. Yes, you are most likely experiencing the next Gulf storm.
I would most appreciate if you see me on here in the future don't forget or if you wouldn't mind...send me an email through the blog!
Randrewl. Thanks for the welcome. I am sure to be keeping up with the blog. Its great. There are not too many weather addicts to chat with here.

This area of convection above me seems to be ready for a re-charge from a run of convection coming up along the coast of Nicaragua. Probibly a couple of hours. Cool!
Utilawatch...I need you to be a future contact. I apologize if I was not too polite at first. There are a lot of people on here that are not way intelligent.
I appreciate your messages and want very much to stay in contact for you are in the area that breeds these storms.
Thanks,
Randy
Utilawatch ...You probably wouldn't know anyone by the name of Tilton would you?
No I dont know him. Has he been to Utila?
Utilawatch ...I'm seeing that convection working along the coast. What is your feel for the future of all that?
Utilawatch...He's just an old friend of mine that fishes around there.
91L is out of time, 92L isn't going tropical, and the models have abandoned the mid-atlantic low forecast in a couple days. Blech.
Utilawatch...So Utila is off the coast and mostly SE of San Pedro Sula?
GUYS I JUST FINISHED MY FIRST BLOG MAKE SURE TO STOP BY AND LEAVE ME A COMMENT....THANKS HURRICANE23
It looks like the strong convection off the coast of Nicaragua will move to the feature above me at 16N 87W. This feature has been growing for about 24 hours and there may be some cylonic motion surrounding it. I belive it could continue to grow tomorrow and maybe be interesting to watch.
hurricane23..Absolutely awesome blog!
Utilawatch...I know you are correct! This has been run on the models today and your area is the next spot!
It is just a matter of time before we deal with another Utila storm!
Thanks,
Randy
Randrewl... Utila is NE of San Pedro Sula and 18 miles off the North Coast. Does your friend live down here?
I had to take out some of the IR loops out because i couldn't get them to update...but i left links.randrewl
Guys, Something bad is going to happen...

ST, Get Ready.
Cat 5, You know where its headed.


Ehem... Actually, My keen gut is telling me that when these few systems clear out the season is going to blow up. Wheather or not it powerhouses its way into the recordbooks Is up to it. But What i'm telling ya'll is Be ready when whatever is about to happen happens.

July Will Be Hell...
Or, I could be wrong.

But it's better to be prepared then unprepared.

~Due to budget cuts, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned Off~

-WH
GUYS I JUST FINISHED DOING MY FIRST BLOG...STOP BY AND TAKE A LOOK.LEAVE COMMENTS!THANKS HURRICANE23
Utilawatch...I'm sorry. I have had a heated argument on another board with a met that has his head hidden in a smelly area of the anatomy!
No, I believe my friend Allan is based in Costa Rica now but I recall him mentioning fishing in your area. He is a charter boater.
i need you to keep in touch. Just mail me amessage if you choose on this blog. Lots of weather is coming and you already know that and it would be beneficial for all of us if we could know what you are experiencing.
OK?
WhatHurricane...all that is bologna! Stop wish-casting please.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 250910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE MORE THAN 600 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

So, basically all the systems we have experienced since Epsilon and Zeta including Alberto and this no-name TUTT recently......have all been hybrids? Is that what you are saying?
If I say things like that on this board there are moderators that censor me!
Good luck and I agree with you!
i think he's just talking about 92L. for all your recent comments there's something you need to consider--just because a system has hybrid origin doesn't mean it stays that way. most everything that develops north of 20N (which is like half of all you'll ever see in the atlantic) has some kind of interaction with an upper trough or low, or forms on a frontal tail or from a cut-off low. it's nothing new under the sun. -HF

And for what reason should I allow you to ever change a post of mine?
Get this pal!
Lots under our sun you don't know....I do!
You keep up with your tired meteoroligical brow-beating stuff! New things are happening and you can't possibly understand them because you are totally "Old School"!
I know what you are saying ...and I have the knowlege...Just I have shifted my thinking because there are other forces in control here and they would not even be related to Mother Nature!
Or you.

Here's a post on another board where I just had to chastise the moderator!
i can have some fun in the late night areas!
Wow! I mean the IR Float shows a perfect ULL!
Link
What a perfect trough!
looks like we are about to get some more rain in the miami area....
dont know about you guys, but im watching 10N 35W. might be something interesting in the next few days. just my opinion...later.
watchingnva...10&35. Wow! that's so far out it will probably die and re-birth before we have to even look at it afgain.
Looks like a rain situation for Vero and Sebastion also.
If we could get a hurricane, say a Cat 1, in Miami on July 7th, that would be good.

Don't ask.
The edge of the precipitation surrounding the center of the broad surface low is touching the coast around PBI, from the view on the radar loop. The center seems to be still offshore and rolling up the coast WNW. There is hardly any pressure gradient at all along the coast in the Melbourne forecast area.

Barometric Pressure readings at 8 AM show
Stuart 29.89
Ft. Pierce 29.87
Vero Beach 29.87
Melbourne 29.88
Patrick AFB 29.89
Titusville/KSC 29.9
Daytona Beach 29.91
Ormond Beach 29.89

Winds are mostly Calm, with the highest wind reported at any of these stations at 3 MPH.
winter springs florida at 29.84. 29.82-29.88 around my area.
592. MahFL
Is anyone else experiencing slow responces from the Wunderground website ?
why if i may ask
well, looks like some rain today from the pesky BLOB (or lack therof), with all the onshore flow.....

certainly gonna be a humid one! :)

not sure if I could stand ST being right, so for goodness sake, we need a TS before the end of june! LOL
borlando - Interesting, thanks. Amazing how uniform the pressure field is...just goes to show that there will be no development of this system. I can see something in the visible loops like an elongated cyclonic circulation just offshore, with winds on the west side mostly NE, and winds on the east side mostly SE.

Due to the low clouds over most of the peninsula, we may not see the same big storms like we did yesterday, but if we get some breaks in the clouds, they could still fire up.
Otherwise, more likely moderate rain and drizzle for today.
Good Morning All.


From the looks of the WV the dry air to the ULL is about to be cut off.

Also interesting is the GFDL's latest run as well as the GFS seem to show the ULL hanging half on shore and half off most of the way up the coast. The GFDL show it reaching 1008 around GA.

For those who have not seen....Find all of the best free weather data on the web at StromJunkie.com. Imagery, models, windshear data, SSTs, and more. Including WU blogger storm video.

SJ

Guyugee, that is the ULL that is elongated, although I think it only looks elongated due to the dry air. If the dry air leaves the ULL, and it stays close to the Gulf Stream there is an outside chance it could work down to the surface.

SJ
thelmore - LOL!
The area around 30 N 53 W is looking more interesting this morning, but it is still under the big ULL, so development would probably be very slow if at all.
I think 10N 35W is interesting. Right here in Puerto Rico we have a quiet weather...
StormJunkie - You are right, that center is very near the ULL center, but I think the circulation is at the surface now, as the low-level clouds are showing up on the visible, due to the lack of much deep convection. I go to the GHCC visible loop and zoom in on high. I seached north and south, and I can only see that one vortex off the southcentral east Florida coast. Not to say another LLC won't form today somewhere else in the system, but that is what I see right now.
I agree with you, Watchingnva. I think our next storm is brewing at 10n 37w. It's already starting to get a little rotation going. I bet we see something there by the end of the day...
I think 10N 35W is interesting. Right here in Puerto Rico we have a quiet weather...
I am not counting the vortices as centers any more Guygee. They will just get sheared apart by the ULL. I think the only hope is for the ULL to transition. It has to get rid of the dry air. Also interesting, from the look of the stalled front, the ULL, may stay off shore for the next 36 to 48hrs.
Also in the radar loop, you can see it...it might actually be moving more NNW, so maybe it won't come onsore in FL at all, but rather roll up the coast.
I am not counting the vortices as centers any more Guygee. They will just get sheared apart by the ULL.

That's a good point StormJunkie, the pressures are so uniform, the center of the vortex can't really be much of a low pressure center.
Water Vapor Loop

Look at the bigger picture Guygee.

SJ
607. WSI
Good morning all. I think the dry air has ended the chances for that system off Florida. I don't think it has enough time, and even if it did, it has some dry air to mix out first.

weathercore.com has many good links and other weather information. New is a tropical forecasting tutorial. It will help those new to tropical weather forecasting learn the basics. From there, I provide links to more in depth information.
:) I spent a lot of time wathcing these vortices too.

SJ
hello!
OK, bigger picture: trough is starting to dig into the Western Gulf. There is a weak ULL forming south of the FL panhandle, dropping south. The Bahama ULL is centered between Andros and Grand Bahama Island.
Yup Guygee, now the B-ULL, or Bahama Upper Level Low, should move up the trough. If it stays over the Gulf Stream, and the dry air truly does get worked out, then it will at very least throw a lot of Gulf and Atlantic mositure on FLA as well as most of the E coast.

Weather 456: The answer to your question is:
The name Ana was used in 1985, 1991, 1997 and 2003 and will come again in 2009
613. gud
Is that a small-diameter cyclonal circulation over Miami right now? See the radar at http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=AMX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=10 or look at satellite images. It seems that cumulunimbus are flaring up around Miami while circulating around the town. The shear is very low and the water temperature quite high. Could this lead to further development, perhaps?
gud, the big ULL has vortexes rotating around it. It is unlikely that one of these will develop. The ULL has to transition to a tropical system in order for anything to come out of this.

Sat Loop

SJ
Bahama Blob is becoming even more elongated, but has thrown us some storms this morning in Savannah, with another nice cell on the way as I speak.
What a night last night here we had Tropical Force Winds...

Some odd convection this morning. Some middle level convection moving
through the southern portion of l.A. County. Dry air below this
convection has created an environment favorable for dry microbursts.
One struck the Downey area a little after 200 this morning. These
convective cells will continue until about dawn.

That exact same cell moved over Whittier where I live. I woke up it got very very windy. There was a little bit of lightning and thunder with it.
morning all~ Got a wopping .04" from the fizzling Blob so far... turned on the pasture sprinklers. Looks like it's gonna push some dry air over the east coast. Ya'll west of 95 look to have a better shot at rain than me. Looks like it was fed more dry air during the night.
Sky, it actuall looks like it is trying to get rid of it's last bit of dry air. The influx has been cutoff from the S. So now the dry air to the N and E should now get worked out. It also looks like there is some decent convection just to the W of the ULL center that is fairly persistent. There is a chance that the ULL stays over the Gulf Stream for up to 48hrs. That would give it a lot of time with out the dry air.

SJ
so this will give it a ch of a TD or strong ts right?
TD=BIG maybe Taz. Strong TS, seriously doubt it.
621. WSI
I think its done. I expect they will call off the flight into it this afternoon. I think we have seen all this disturbance is going to do.
Just keep an eye on the ULL WSI. It has closed off the dry air. The whole area is about to become saturated once it gets that last little bit of dry air out. You can clearly see the increase in moisture around the center of the ULL. I am not saying they will ever clasify it, only that it will only start looking better now. Something like the Houston Blob.
So the ULL is over S Fl. Steve Lyons just said that it could still spin off another surface low that would trek N. Any speculations on the future of the ULL? Is it going to keep moving W into the Gulf?
624. MZT
There seems to be a large burst of convection off the Carribiean side of Nicaragua today.
looks like the llc is very near melbournes.....

this ull could spin up another surface low, which could head towards the carolina's, although mainly a rain event.....

worth watching since the ull has shead most of the dry air.....
SJ, yeah it does look like the influx of dry air is being cut off again. But around 5Z it was all closed with a little dry air in the center. UCF model is still showing this to be a potental mess as it travels up through the east coast.
the yellow is trees down, widespread power outages. the bits of red in there is roof damage power out.

Can't link right to it. it's in here
628. MZT
Since an ULL isn't a true tropical system, wouldn't that make it less suceptible to land interaction? IE it could keep circulating over FLA for a while and sir up moisture all over the place...

Yeah, a mess. But most people in the southeast need rain.
thel and Fanatic

Look at the WV

It looks to me like the whole thing wi going to move a little N of WNW with a turn to the NW and NNW. The floater WV also shows how much mositure is starting to get around the center of the ULL.

SJ
The ULL, best seen on water vapor, is the only center this thing has. It is not over S Fla. It is over open warm water. It could work it's way down tothe surface. The convection and moisture is starting to centralize around it as it expells the last pocket of dry air it should see.
SJ
MZT~ yeah we need the rain, I'm in Melbourne, Fl. Got nothing out of it so far, it's sunny & I need to go move the sprinkler. According to UCF (& this model has proven to be pretty accurate, good on track, great on intensity) the NE is gonna get the bulk of the mess, not the SE. I'd gladly take it, but it doesn't wanna seem to dish it out here.
I think the GFDL may have a handle on this system now, only problem is it initiated it too far N IMO.

SJ
Observations:
The small surface vortex riding up the FL coast is riding up what is left of the surface tropical wave axis. Surface winds are NE on the west side and SE or S on the east side. Here is a link to the 1500Z surface analysis from the Tampa NWS showing the location of the wave axis. The little surface low is riding up this axis, and is currently just SE of Melbourne, as shown in the intellicast radar loop.

At the upper levels, the Bahama ULL is centered around 25.9 N 77.8 W and appears to be drifting north. There is a spoke of dry air rotating around the Bahama ULL towards the FL coast. This could bring some breaks in the clouds and help fire up storms over the interior peninsula today.

The tropical wave that was east of the the one currently just off FL coast was severely sheared by the big central Atlantic ULL, but the remnants of this wave are sending a large chunk of moisture being pulled in from the SE from around 25 N 73 W. Below this, there is another spoke of dry air rotating around the Bahama ULL. Some convection is currently firing up SW of the ULL east of Miami, and some of this convection seems to be rotating around the ULL center in the vicinity of Andros Island.

The deep layer trough is digging into the wester GOM, while the eastward motion of the south end of the trough is lagging the motion to the north considerably. The eastern movement of the trough in the Gulf is being impeded by a small ULL roughly south of Mobile.
Upper level features were observed on the RAP WV loop.
634. MZT
An interesting thing about this system off FLA, is that although it has been suffering for days from dry air, it seems to have sucked most of the dry air out of the GOM... Actually flung it out and around, what remains is off the Georgia coast.

If another system gets close to the Gulf in the next several days, we may not need to talk about inhibitance from dry air. Just intensification prospects...

Oops, that should have read "1200Z surface analysis from the Tampa NWS", above.
On the models: the BAMs are grabbing ahold of the surface circulation, which is typical but wrong in this case.

THe GFDL latches onto the current ULL, but I agree with StormJunkie that it initializes it a little too far north. If anything does develop from this, it will be around the ULL.
Well wrote guygee... that's what I'm seeing as well. The question of the day is~ Is the small ULL roughly south of Mobile gonna impeed the trough enough to allow the Bahama ULL to sit on the gulf stream long enough to atleast get better organized or perhaps transition to a TD? Seems it doesn't take days over the gulf stream, but it would need the better part a full day to see signifigant organization.
I just noticed that the last run of the GFDL on the map above was 8 PM yesterday, so my last comment on the GFDL really doesn't apply. The 06/25 0Z GFDL run is the latest one available.

The sun is shining again here in Satellite Beach. Precipitation here has been 0.03 inches in the 24 hours preceding Jun 24, 2006 - 07:55 AM EDT.

I think I'll go outside and work on my sprinkler system. Catch you all later!
Hey Skye - Good question. The ULL really isn't moving much, so I am going to keep watch as that big chunk of moisture gets drawn in from the SE.

I don't see the trough progressing very rapidly over the Gulf coast, so I don't think the ULL center will move much today. The ULL is slowly becoming a warm core system, and it will make the transition if it has enough time...

Talk to you later!
LOL Skye, we are both talking about our sprinklers! OK, I gone now, I need to get some "outside time"...
Surface pressures arent that impressive but still the area around Miami is active. There is a lot of dry air around it.

Its hot and still outside in north central.
At the Florida/Georgia border a separation on the ir loop show some clods heading north and others staying with the system esp. in the last few frames. The trough looks strained there too. Considering the westerly flow of upper level winds (vis cloud tops) is there a chance still of this thing breaking west?