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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Three Atlantic threat areas may develop; a record fire season for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

A large tropical wave (Invest 94L) located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at 20 - 25 mph, and is showing increasing organization today. The storm is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is over waters of 27°C. A large area of dry air lies just to the north of 94L, as seen on the latest Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis and water vapor satellite loops. This dry air is interfering with development, and this morning's visible satellite loop shows that 94L's heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse. However, the satellite loops do show that 94L has now separated from the clumps of heavy thunderstorms to its south, and a pretty well-defined surface circulation has developed. Heavy thunderstorms are now attempting to fire up around this circulation center, but are being hampered by dry air. The center of 94L was about 80 miles to the north of buoy 41041 at 10 am Monday morning, and the buoy recorded SW winds of 10 mph, confirming that 94L probably does have a closed surface circulation. The disturbance will have to build and maintain more heavy thunderstorms than it has now to be considered a tropical depression, though. The first hurricane hunter mission into 94L is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. Ocean temperatures will warm from 27°C this morning to 28.5°C by Wednesday morning, and the total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply during that period, as well. The main impediment to development will be dry air to the north, and the SHIPS model predicts the amount of dry air will change little over the next five days. I expect that 94L will continue to struggle with dry air through Wednesday, when it will probably have had enough time to moisten the surrounding atmosphere and protect itself against the dry air. The models have shown increasing unity in taking 94L through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, and I expect the storm will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds at that time. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. None of the reliable models predict that 94L will reach hurricane strength over the next five days, and it is unlikely that 94L will be able to organize quickly enough to become anything stronger than a 60 mph tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, given the storm's current struggles with dry air, and the lack of model support for intensification. However, once 94L enters the Eastern Caribbean, wind shear will be low, oceanic heat content high, and the storm should have had enough time to moisten the atmosphere to allow steady strengthening to occur. The main factor that might prevent intensification into a hurricane late this week would be a close pass by the island of Hispaniola. Our top models for long-range 4 - 5 days forecasts all show a path for 94L very close to the island.

Will 94L hit the U.S. mainland?
This storm is a long-range threat to the U.S., as historically, 16% of storms in 94L's location have gone on to hit the U.S., with North Carolina the preferred target (10% chance.) A trough of low pressure capable of pulling 94L to the north enters Western Canada Thursday night, and the exact timing and amplitude of this trough will determine the ultimate landfall location of 94L. The long range 7 - 14 day runs of the GFS model over the past three day have all predicted an eventual landfall for 94L in the U.S., though these long-range runs are notoriously unreliable. The predicted landfall locations have ranged from New England to Texas--which isn't much help. The past three runs beginning on Sunday afternoon have all taken 94L over Florida during the August 27 - 29 time frame, which I'm sure is making organizers of the Republican National Convention uncomfortable, since the convention is in Tampa August 27 - 30. However, 94L could miss Florida completely, as the average error in model forecasts going out 7 days is in excess of 500 miles. We can't rule out a North Carolina landfall, but the pattern we've seen so far this year is for landfalls in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, so a more southwards path for 94L into the Yucatan is definitely a possibility. Also, we have that huge drought region in the Midwest, which tends to create its own high pressure bubble, which reduces the odds of storms making the turn and hitting the Central or Western Gulf Coast. If 94L makes it to the Western Caribbean, I see the two most likely options as a landfall in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (and then westwards into Mexico south of the Texas border), or recurvature into the Florida Gulf Coast.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gordon taken on Sunday August 19, 2012, at 11:55 am EDT. At the time, Gordon was a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Gordon hits the Azores
The eye of Hurricane Gordon passed over Santa Maria Island in the eastern Azores Islands near 1:30 am EDT this morning. Gordon was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 80 mph winds at landfall. Winds at the Santa Maria airport reached a sustained 49 mph at 3 am EDT, but the airport did not report winds during passage of the eyewall at 1:30 am. Reuters reported that Gordon caused only minor flooding and power outages. The hurricane is being sheared apart by strong upper-level winds, and the extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.

Disturbance 95L in the Gulf near the Texas/Mexico border
A region of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast, just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. The disturbance is due to a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which moved off the coast over the weekend, but has been fortified via moisture from Tropical Storm Helene, which made landfall Saturday near Tampico. If 95L were to develop into a tropical storm, it would receive a new name. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon. Winds at Tampico this morning were light out of the northeast, which implies that no surface circulation is forming at this time. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico does show some banding to the precipitation echoes, though, which may be indicative of something trying to spin up. The computer models show that 95L should move little over the next few days.


Figure 3. Radar out of Altamira, Mexico at 9:45 am EDT August 20, 2012, shows some banding to the precipitation echoes in association with 95L.

Disturbance 96L off the coast of Africa
The tropical Atlantic is very busy this third week of August, and this is the week of the year that we typically see a major ramp-up of tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. A new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Sunday (Invest 96L) is headed west at 15 - 20 mph. This disturbance has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 96L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning. This disturbance does not have much model support for development.


Figure 4. The new Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (S-NPP) carries an instrument so sensitive to low light levels that it can detect wildfires in the middle of the night. On August 17, 2012, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on Suomi-NPP acquired this image of the wildfires blazing in Idaho. The images were created with data from the instrument’s "day-night band," which sensed the fire in the visible portion of the spectrum. The Halstead Fire, centered about 18 miles northwest of Stanley, was sparked by lightning on July 27, and is burning in an area with large numbers of trees killed by the mountain pine beetle. As of Sunday afternoon, the fire had burned 92,000 acres was only 5% contained, according to InciWeb. The fire prompted the evacuation of the town of Featherville on Saturday night. Red flag warnings for adverse fire weather were posted in the region yesterday, and temperatures reached the low 90s with 16% humidity and winds of 10 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A record fire season in the U.S.
Massive fires continue to burn in Nevada, Idaho and California, and fires that are currently active in the Western U.S. have consumed over 1.3 million acres of land--an area approximately the size of Delaware. Thanks to widespread drought and unusually high temperatures over the past month, 3 million acres have gone up in flames since mid-July, and the fire season of 2012 now ranks in first place for the most acreage burned at this point in the year. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 6.8 million acres have burned as of August 19 this year, beating the previous record set just last year (6.5 million acres for the year-to-date period.) The Interagency Fire Center shows year-to-date records just for the past ten years. The 2012 fire season is well ahead of the pace of 2006, which was the worst fire year in the U.S. for total acreage burned in a year (records began in 1960). In 2006, 9.9 million acres burned, and 6.4 million acres had burned by August 19. With drought conditions far more widespread this year compared to 2006, and the latest forecasts calling for little drought relief over the coming two months, 2012 is likely to surpass 2006 as the worst fire year in U.S. history before the end of the year.


Figure 5. Comparison of drought conditions between the previous record fire year in the contiguous U.S. (2006) with 2012. Drought is much more widespread in 2012 compared to 2006, and 2012 will likely finish ahead of 2006 for the most acreage burned since record keeping began in 1960. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Global warming expected to increase fire activity in the Western U.S.
As I blogged about in June, the severe fire seasons of 2012 and 2011 fit the pattern of what we expect to see more of with global warming. Hotter heat waves dry out vegetation more readily, resulting in increased probability of more acreage burned. A study published in the Journal Ecosphere in June 2012 used fire models driven by the output from sixteen climate models used in the 2007 IPCC report and found that while 8% of the planet should see decreases in fire activity over the next 30 years, 38% should see increases. By the end of the century, 20% of the globe should see decreased fire activity, and 62% increased fire activity. In the U.S., the regions most at risk of increased fires are the tundra regions of northern Alaska, and the West, with Arizona and Colorado at particularly high risk.

Jeff Masters
hugh blanket of smoke
hugh blanket of smoke
blew in about an hr after my last upload here - I thought I was done for the nite, but this smoke was incredible! made for some awesome light - sooooo eerie!
Smoke! What smoke ??
Smoke! What smoke ??
12th Ave road South looking north. Nampa Idaho full of smoke from 7 fires at last count with more dry lightning on the way.
Temecula Fire
Temecula Fire
This is just two hours after ignition! It quickly became a PYROCUMULUS...

Hurricane Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

4001. Gearsts
Quoting GetReal:




TD9 is embedded in a serious steering layer that probably has the system moving WSW in access of 20 MPH.

IMO
Nope that shows the high weakening and moving NE the flow is more west and i won't be surprise if the TD move wnw later today.Thats why TD 9 has slow down a bit.
4002. WxLogic
A little 12Z NAM @45HR action to hopefully refocus some conversations:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just something to keep in mind...

Those who want to see a strong system (regardless of the end result) should root for the southern route.

If this crosses the spine of Hispaniola, it opens a whole can of worms.

As always, I will only post analysis on what I see and nothing more.

No bias, no bull

The decrease in latitude now might be key to further land interaction further in its path. If keeps riding the 15 degree line it will miss most of the mountaionus terrian.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No offense but Levi forecasted TD 09 yesterday to travel just west of Bermuda. I mean really. The guy was so far off base it was unreal.

uh... suggest u actually look at his blog... he had a really ANNOYING forecast w/ 94L passing right over Nassau... which is NOT the same as Bermuda....

4005. junie1
Quoting CaribBoy:


Lool I see you read my desperate comments on here!! Well I'm on St Maarten.. 18N 63W. So help me please draging the storm northward lol
lol sounds good im at 18.3 65 in st thomas trust ill do my best wouldnt mind some good rain and some gusty winds but look out 96L
This place will be ugly soon... at least I won't be on here all day long.
I talked to my Grandkids this morning, they are going to keep a look out for me, they said its too far out to really know where its going yet.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I'm just saying I get little annoyed with trolls shouting SW, SW, SW without proof. That's all :)

from 15.2 to 15.0 is only about 12 miles. not a big deal at all. not gonna change the path it takes.
4009. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Hurricane Field Program Update – Monday, August 20, 2012 6:06 PM Eastern


OPERATIONS

NOAA-P-3s

Tuesday, Aug 21, 2012
NOAA-42: Will ferry from MacDill to Barbados. The scheduled take-off is 14 UTC (10AM).
No HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Wednesday, Aug 22, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.

Thursday, Aug 23, 2012
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for AL94. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from Barbados and landing in Barbados.
Comments: NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR mission into AL94. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.


Can always count on Nrt... to clarify these out.
Models closing in on the East Coast of Florida this morning..
4011. hydrus
Quoting Gearsts:
Anti cyclone a little out of place and the center is getting shear abit from the north thats why the coc is almost exposed at 14.9n or 15n.
Starting to get that ominous look tho. Here we go again with a potentially devastating storm that will hit somewhere before going away. Outflow is funky at best, but will change soon as will shear values..
4012. TXCWC
Quoting Bluestorm5:
For the last time, Euro is an outlier...


He is not talking about the operational model
Quoting Gorty:


No. I am talking about how many named storms the month had, not what letter of the alphabet it got to :p

Oh. Then. Yes...

2005: 6
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?

Quoting Grothar:
Good video from 28Storms



Thanks Grothar...excellent video....forecast.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's hard to believe it, but forecast tracks at 5 days have improved radically since 2005, at least partially because of storms like Katrina, Rita, and the others of the 2005 season. I'm pretty sure the 5-day margin of error the NHC gives still allows for just about anything to happen beyond that point. But a clustered forecast this early suggests to me that the most likely solution will bring this system somewhere near or over FL.

Nevertheless, I do agree with you; interests along the US coast should monitor the progress of the system, since a FL landfall does not in any way rule at a later, supplementary landfall...

Thanks bah a, that's what I was trying to say, you really never know what a storm is gonna do, they have a mind of their own. I just think everyone focuses on the models way to much before we even have good concrete data from recon. I just want everyone to stay on there toes and be prepared, this is mother nature we are dealing with. Back to lurking

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey a Seminoles fan is a friend of mine. Noles should be right there this year in regards to be a top five team.

Euro Ensembles just in case the blog missed it.
That would suggest a further recurve N or NNE into W Fla, then up the East Coast. if that was to turn out. That western ridge looks too strong to pull it NW'rd  to anywhere W of NOLA/MS, and it looks like the A/B ridge, while pretty strong, seems to be retreating a bit, creating a weakness over FL.

On the other hand, with more time over water, and plenty of E Gulf storm fuel, if that Euro path pans out, Florida is royally SCREWED. As in, Charley/Donna/David SCREWED.

But, still a long way to go, and the Euro is still the western outlier. Stay tuned...

4017. aquak9
Is the Euro an outlier?
4018. GetReal
With a system moving as quickly as td9, an unexpected extended move towards the WSW would quickly throw the system out of the short term official track.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey I'm not bashing at all as i just didn't agree with the track he posted. It was really off base from what the models where saying that's all. The track he had was in between the Bahamas and Bermuda when the GFS and Euro were over FL.


A track posted by ANYONE on here can change from hour to hour or day to day, if someone says something one day doesnt mean the pattern cant change and then they cant change their track later, the NHC does! Doesnt mean they were wrong or right... OMG
4020. LargoFl
be careful at the beaches on the gulf coast today...........COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.PERSISTENT MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS CREATING BREAKING WAVES OR 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG AREA
BEACHES PRODUCING A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

FLZ050-220000-
/O.CON.KTBW.BH.S.0010.120821T1600Z-120822T0000Z/
PINELLAS-
949 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* HAZARDS...RIP CURRENTS.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

* LOCATION...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...SAR ASOTA...
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.

* POTENTIAL IMPACTS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A THREAT TO
ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN THREATS SUCH AS RIP
CURRENTS...LONGSHORE CURRENTS...SNEAKER WAVES AND OTHER HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER.

TO AVOID GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED
BEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO
THE SURF MUCH ABOVE YOUR KNEES. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR
NEAR THE WATER.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC OR
ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS
ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY
FROM THE FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE
BEACH.

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE =CHMBHS

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA
Quoting WxLogic:
A little 12Z NAM @45HR action to hopefully refocus some conversations:



I love the NAM !!!!!!!! But of course what it is showing will not happen :(
Quoting Gramma1948:
I talked to my Grandkids this morning, they are going to keep a look out for me, they said its too far out to really know where its going yet.
They're correct. Just keep the eye on this :)
Quoting Gearsts:
Nope that shows the high weakening and moving NE the flow is more west and i won't be surprise if the TD move wnw later today.Thats why TD 9 has slow down a bit.

I agree with the slow down part...
That's also why the Anticyclone ran out ahead of Isaac and is putting a little bit of northerly shear on it.
The 12UTC NAM has TD9 heading towards southwest Puerto Rico on a WNW heading.

As much as people like to knock it, it's not that bad at getting synoptic scale conditions correct - like the ridging that determines steering...
Meanwhile.. A "rare" winter-like squall line is developing the the GOM. May see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Peninsula later today.

I'm forecasting a blog from Doc. Masters sometime this morning, stay tuned.And the band played on.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. Then. Yes...

2005: 6
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?
Gert formed in July.

4028. LargoFl
4029. emcf30
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center could be farther SW than most think.

Microwave imagery doesn't lie.



Agreed-- Lots of peeps don't think this is very significant. It only takes a little change in latitude where TD9 is located for it to have implications 5 days or so down the road as to where future Issac threatens, or does not threaten land, no matter when it starts to feel the weakness the GFS depicts or not. Infact, since last night, best track showed a south of due West movement and the IR also suggested a more southerly component movement also.
4030. WxLogic
Here's a recently updated HH schedule for tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z A. 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLOME B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z A. 23/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.
3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
21/1600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/0930Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh. Then. Yes...

(RECORD)2005: 5

Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee

2012: 6(Maybe 7 or 8, by the end of the month, model indicated)
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
(96L) Joyce?
Kirk?

2011: Broke the record then...7
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Quoting Thing342:
Gert formed in July.


My bad, I checked it, forgot to edit.
Quoting junie1:
lol sounds good im at 18.3 65 in st thomas trust ill do my best wouldnt mind some good rain and some gusty winds but look out 96L


You are a good friend bro! Thanks!! lol.

By the way I wouldn't ming a good wet TS like the latest NAM is showing lol.

.. and yes I'm also watching 96L. Models send it north but I'm wondering why based on what happened with Ernesto, TD7 and now TD9...
4034. wn1995


My 8 day forecast track on TD9. Yes, i kind of forecast doom, but I think this is certainly a very real possibility, this could be a real problem for the US.
Quoting osuwxguynew:
The 12UTC NAM has TD9 heading towards southwest Puerto Rico on a WNW heading.

As much as people like to knock it, it's not that bad at getting synoptic scale conditions correct - like the ridging that determines steering...


Less land interaction = dangerous storm for the East Coast.
Quoting WxLogic:


Can always count on Nrt... to clarify these out.


A second plus! Folks like nrti and SKYE are the true MVP of this blogosphere.
Quoting wn1995:


My 8 day forecast track on TD9. Yes, i kind of forecast doom, but I think this is certainly a very real possibility, this could be a real problem for the US.


Lol yea sure, RI to a CAT3 in the 90 miles between cuba and florida. After crossing eastern cuba. With a direct hit on Miami.

If you wanted to make it more accurate, bring it in a little south so miami gets the right front quad.
4038. hydrus
Wave train is apparently on track..
4039. txwcc
Recon will find a TS this afternoon. A southerly component of a true W motion continues...
4040. TXCWC
3991: "...The conversation is about the ENS MEANS, not the ops.
HPC puts more stock in the Euro mean than the GFS mean at this time..." EXACTLY CORRECT :)

"PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/21 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN SHARED MORE IN COMMON WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN THE GEFS MEAN...THE SAID DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT TRUST THEIR DETAILS. EXTRAPOLATED THE 09Z/21 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR THE DEPICTION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DAYS 6 AND 7. WILL REFINE THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDAY COORDINATION CALL."





Quoting reedzone:


Less land interaction = dangerous storm for the East Coast.


Less land interaction and stronger storm, could also mean a full recurvature and out to sea. The latest GFS ensembles are the furthest east than they have ever been.
4042. Gorty
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2011: Broke the record then...7
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia


Wow 7?!? Dang!

Not sure if 2012 will tie it but it may break 2005.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Isaac's Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History



September 8, 1900, began innocently in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas. Even Isaac Cline, resident meteorologist for the U.S. Weather Bureau failed to grasp the true meaning of the strange deep-sea swells and peculiar winds that greeted the city that morning. Mere hours later, Galveston found itself submerged in a monster hurricane that completely destroyed the town and killed over six thousand people in what remains the greatest natural disaster in American history--and Isaac Cline found himself the victim of a devestating personal tragedy.

Using Cline's own telegrams, letters, and reports, the testimony of scores of survivors, and our latest understanding of the science of hurricanes, Erik Larson builds a chronicle of one man's heroic struggle and fatal miscalculation in the face of a storm of unimaginable magnitude. Riveting, powerful, and unbearably suspenseful, Isaac's Storm is the story of what can happen when human arrogance meets the great uncontrollable force of nature


I've read that book about a dozen times, not just because of the fact the storm hit my region, but the science and politics that made up the secondary plot of the book was riveting.
4044. hydrus
East Atlantic wave looks rather potent.
4045. Gearsts
When are the HH going in to TD9?
Quoting yonzabam:


Lol! So, looking more like a Nova Scotia storm, now!


It certainly is looking like we have a good chance. I'm getting excited. I've been itching for anything more than a Cat 1 ever since Juan ( if it reaches us it likely wont be that strong, but there's always hope). I could see this takeing a very similar track to Earl of 2010 once it intensifies a bit.
Quoting reedzone:


Less land interaction = dangerous storm for the East Coast.


Do you think such a path is possible?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


He's right the Euro ensembles are in the east Gulf.

So how does that differ from what I said? If even the ensembles are in the Eastern GoM, that supports the idea that most models are bringing the storm into the vicinity of FL... which is what I was getting at. EURO east; CMC west; everything else in between; suggests a FL hit is fairly likely.

Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Wow you people are gonna run off another good poster...
Only if the poster lets him or herself be run off. The "haters", as somebody called such posters yesterday, only work if you give them the power.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Posting all options for TD 9 is key. This could end up in the Gulf afterall if this center has indeed relocated further SW.
Dude.. everybody's still looking at a possible Tampa hit... how is that not in the Gulf?

The point pple have been making all morning is that most of the models are putting FL somewhere in the mix... I don't think it can be clearer than that for now...

Agreed... 5 days from now we may be looking at a different picture, but for now this is a pretty clear one.
The blob over Panama City is starting to act oddly, the wind just got really quiet. The skies are getting really dark again now. We seriously do not need any more rain.
4050. 7544
morning all wasnt expecting ahurricane by the time this reaches pr and now a cat 2 storm on day 5 getting interesting to say the least but looks like a very close call for south fl time will tell
Quoting TXCWC:
3991: "...The conversation is about the ENS MEANS, not the ops.
HPC puts more stock in the Euro mean than the GFS mean at this time..." EXACTLY CORRECT :)

"PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/21 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN SHARED MORE IN COMMON WITH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAN THE GEFS MEAN...THE SAID DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING ENOUGH SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NOT TRUST THEIR DETAILS. EXTRAPOLATED THE 09Z/21 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR THE DEPICTION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DAYS 6 AND 7. WILL REFINE THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDAY COORDINATION CALL."





Glad someone is paying attention. :)

So many voices, its hard to find decent info here.
People hear what they want to and way too much wishing and hoping, instead of looking and thinking.
4052. txwcc
I think the NHC will adjust their track a bit further south in the short term out to 36 hours but then show a sharper turn to the north in the longer term out to the 5 day period.
4053. hydrus
Does not look like dry air is a problem for the eastern half anymore.
4054. TXCWC
Quoting aquak9:
Is the Euro an outlier?


Euro is widely considered 1 of the top 2 models in use - I personally would be hesitant to consider it an outliner. NOAA usually goes with a blend between Euro and GFS - I think that is usually a wise thing to do as well :)
What time are the HH going out??
4056. txwcc
11 AM update is out.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

2011: Broke the record then...7
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia


2004 had 8 August storms if memory serves.
4058. wn1995
Quoting Unfriendly:


Lol yea sure, RI to a CAT3 in the 90 miles between cuba and florida. After crossing eastern cuba. With a direct hit on Miami.

If you wanted to make it more accurate, bring it in a little south so miami gets the right front quad.


My track shows little land interaction, sure, it would weaken, but not nearly as much as if it crossed over Hispaniola. It certainly is a real possibility.
No Isaac

4060. GetReal
4061. hydrus
Still some dust..94 is washing it out well..
Quoting Gorty:


Wow 7?!? Dang!

Not sure if 2012 will tie it but it may break 2005.

2005 had 5 in August.
2011 had 7 in August.
2012 has had 6 in August. 2 Others possible before the end of the month.
Quoting Chucktown:


Less land interaction and stronger storm, could also mean a full recurvature and out to sea. The latest GFS ensembles are the furthest east than they have ever been.


Happens many times and would not shock me at all.
4064. LargoFl
WTNT24 KNHC 211441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA... AND BARBUDA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 52.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 55.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.5N 58.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N 74.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 77.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 52.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting Michfan:
The average margin of error for forecasts greater than 5 days out is 500 miles for the models. You can't expect any of us to do any better than that, hence why there is a cone for tracks. Some of you tend to forget this all too often. Look at Charley. It was forecast to hit Tampa dead on then took a sharp turn right into Punta Gorda which suprised everyone.
Thanks, Mitch. What we also have to remember about using the actual forecast model tracks themselves is that NHC uses them like an "ensemble"... IOW, the different models show different possibilities and thus offer a kind of "cone of possibility". We can slavishly follow one or two models [cherrypick, to use another blogger's term], or we can use them collectively to help us consider the most likely and the least likely options.
4067. TXCWC
Quoting seminolesfan:
Glad someone is paying attention. :)

So many voices, its hard to find decent info here.
People hear what they want to and way too much wishing and hoping, instead of looking and thinking.


ya, there is definitly some good info put out here - you just have to glean through some of the other stuff at times to find it :)
Quoting aquak9:
Is the Euro an outlier?


Whats the Euro dear?
4069. GetReal
Quoting Kristina40:
The blob over Panama City is starting to act oddly, the wind just got really quiet. The skies are getting really dark again now. We seriously do not need any more rain.



sounds like you are possibly in the Bear Cage!
Quoting hydrus:
Does not look like dry air is a problem for the eastern half anymore.

Isaac and "Joyce" cleared it out... Whatever comes after... BEWARE.
4071. LargoFl
00
WTNT84 KNHC 211444
TCVAT4

NINE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-VIZ001-002-
212100-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
4072. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:
No Isaac

After this system crosses Cuba is when the forecast get a bit tricky.
4073. snotly
Not necessarilydoom, takes it over some big mountains first.

Quoting wn1995:


My 8 day forecast track on TD9. Yes, i kind of forecast doom, but I think this is certainly a very real possibility, this could be a real problem for the US.
4074. txwcc
Quoting LargoFl:
00
WTNT84 KNHC 211444
TCVAT4

NINE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-01 2-013-VIZ001-002-
212100-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W
VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...


Thank you Largo for posting all these warnings...

-Kristina
15.1N

Stop saying this thing is going south looooool
Doesn't look like Isaac at 11 a.m.... as I thought. I'm sure NHC will wait for the HHers to confirm TS, which means likely 2 p.m. earliest, but 5 p.m. much more likely...
Quoting gordydunnot:
I'm forecasting a blog from Doc. Masters sometime this morning, stay tuned.And the band played on.

Thinking he's waiting for the HH report.
Too bad watching this storm won't pay my bills or do my homework for me.
4079. hydrus
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Isaac and "Joyce" cleared it out... Whatever comes after... BEWARE.
Yes sir,,Things could get really ugly out there. This is not good either, the Bermuda High is forecast to shift west.
Quoting CaribBoy:
15.1N

Stop saying this thing is going south looooool

they'll just say the NHC is wrong.
Quoting Patrap:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 20 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 21/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST
C. 21/1315Z
D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1530Z TO 21/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 21/1800Z A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1530Z C. 22/0400Z
D. 16.2N 54.5W D. 16.4N 58.3W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2200Z E. 22/0530 TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. NEGATIVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM ENTERING CARIBBEAN.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
[JWP]




Does that mean that for TD9 they will be leaving at 2:00 this afternoon?
Since when is Carl Parker (TWC) a Hurricane Specialist. I dont see anything that qualifies him.
4083. txwcc
Quoting CaribBoy:
15.1N

Stop saying this thing is going south looooool


Recon will go in there and discover the LLC is .3 or .4 degree south of that...probably at 14.7N.
Both 1995 and 2011 saw 7 named Atlantic storms form in August, while 2004 saw 8. (1997, OTOH, saw none.) The 1995-2011 average is 3.9, so 2012 is already ahead of that. (And speaking of 1995-2011--the so-called "active period"--the average through the end of August has been 6.6, so 2012 is ahead of that, as well. 2005 had 12 named storms through the end of August, so 2012 would have to spin up Isaac plus just two others in the next ten days to stay even.)
4085. LargoFl
Quoting txwcc:


Thank you Largo for posting all these warnings...

-Kristina
np stay safe ok
4086. Patrap
Brownsville Radar

4087. GetReal
Quoting CaribBoy:
15.1N

Stop saying this thing is going south looooool





Looks like 15.1 to me????
4088. hydrus
And if the Bermuda High shifts west, this will likely make it to the gulf. jmo
Quoting AussieStorm:


ECMWF says yes at 240hrs.


WOW!! nnever would of known. Trof picking it up?
4090. aquak9
Quoting Gramma1948:


Whats the Euro dear?

EuroDeer are small and frail, with bad teeth.
right
TD9 is moving WSW-S of due W

TD9 is below 15N

expecting a shift in cone to the S and W

Recon need to get out in TD9 soon can't wait for flight

95L ain't goin to do a think thats why recon's was canned

GIV will fly on 23rd and please to welcome back the NOAA's P3's will be flying in TD9 going to be a busy couple of days

Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211431
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 21 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 22/1800Z, 23/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 22/1600Z
D. 15.7N 60.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 23/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 42--
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0409A CYCLONE
C. 22/2000Z
D. 15.9N 61.5W
E. 22/2130 TO 23/0330Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71--
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0509A CYCLONE
C. 23/0400Z
D. 16.0N 63.0W
E. 23/0530Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 42--
A. 23/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0609A CYCLONE
C. 23/0800Z
D. 16.2N 64.6W
E. 23/0900Z TO 23/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.


3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
21/1600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/0930Z.


4092. Patrap
Brownsville Radar

4093. LargoFl
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
4095. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
Brownsville Radar

looks like they were right about 95 moving in westward
4096. snotly
Recon will find that it is at 90.0 N and moving west.

Quoting txwcc:


Recon will go in there and discover the LLC is .3 or .4 degree south of that...probably at 14.7N.
Quoting StormJunkie:

BR>Morning all ;)

So stayed up long enough to see 09 get its convection together last night. Will be interesting to see what the models say the next four runs with an organized system and data getting fed in to them. Now we should begin to get a refinement of that Apalachicola to OBX cone.


Good to see you here. My initial thought was that this TD was going to go across the FL Keys and up the west coast of FL; but it seem like the high coming down and the strength of the storm itself are going to push it north along the East Coast of Florida or slightly off the east coast going to all points north.
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I know this is off topic, but the real quote is "boy, that escalated quickly" and not "well, that escalated quickly". :)
Quoting aquak9:

EuroDeer are small and frail, with bad teeth.

What's the vector, Victor?
getting a late start this am...I see TD9 is looking better. I know what the models are showing but I don't think anyone can take their eyes off of this...too many variables could change that track.
4101. FOREX
I remember Jim Cantore saying many months ago that he is one of the smartest guys that work at TWC.

Referring to Carl Parker that is.
I don't wish a storm on anyone else but selfishly I am glad to see that South Florida looks like it will dodge yet another bullet. I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
thank you wunderbot
4104. Kumo
Quoting Gramma1948:


Whats the Euro dear?


Good morning Granny. The Euro is one of the major forcast models in use by atmospheric scientists today.
At last!
4106. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Brownsville Radar

Definitely a little spin heading for the TX/MX border...Forecast for the Eastern Caribbean is nasty...Fishing will have to wait..AMZ023-212015-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
547 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2012

.TODAY...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
LATE. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.WED...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N TO NE WINDS
20 TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 KT LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT...
BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS.
.THU...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N WINDS 55 TO 65 KT...
BECOMING NW TO N 45 TO 50 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.FRI...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.FRI NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
.SAT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
Quoting 954Soxfan:
I don't wish a storm on anyone else but selfishly I am glad to see that South Florida looks like it will dodge yet another bullet. I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
Sox.You and everyone else have no idea.... Please refrain from making that type of comment... Some poor soul may listen to you and not get prepared. OK?
4108. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #9

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting hydrus:
Yes sir,,Things could get really ugly out there. This is not good either, the Bermuda High is forecast to shift west.

if it shift W then expect track to shift S and W

Quoting txwcc:


Recon will go in there and discover the LLC is .3 or .4 degree south of that...probably at 14.7N.


yep


NHC will keep location at 15.1N till the HH recon goes in then they will change it to WSW
Am under a tropical storm warning :/
4111. FOREX
I have been reading this blog for a long time, but never felt intelligent enough to post comments. I really enjoy reading everyones comments and as I continue to learn, will start posting. Happy to be a member.

Quoting 954Soxfan:
... I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
I hope you are right.  But what information exactly gets you there at this stage?
Quoting FOREX:
I have been reading this blog for a long time, but never felt intelligent enough to post comments. I really enjoy reading everyones comments and as I continue to learn, will start posting. Happy to be a member.


Welcome!
First of all, as you can plainly see, you dont have to be intelligent to post here....
Second, You ARE intelligent and proved it by not posting but watching for a while...

Glad to have you!
4114. kwgirl
Quoting scooster67:


how long is the blog going to put up with this TROLL?
I don't see him unless you quote him. That's what the ignore button is all about.
just to let you guys know one of NOAA's P3's took off and is enroute to the E Caribbean

4116. wn1995
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
just to let you guys know one of NOAA's P3's took off and is enroute to the E Caribbean



What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?
They are going to st croix
Quoting wn1995:


What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?
If it crosses cuba as a hurricane why don't the NHC send a ton of planes into the Fla straights and drop a million tons of ice and cool it down. just wondering lol
Quoting wn1995:


What are they doing? I know they aren't going to 09l, too far, they would take off from st croix. Sampling the environment in the e carrib?


maybe relocating to st croix and sampling the air while flying there

12Z it going to me fun a Hurricane!!:) Cat2 or 3 going to S FL

after the hunters fly in we should know where the LLCOC is and how strong the system is this will then be put into the models and current location it will be interesting to see what happens
One of the 6Z 986MB going into me
recon should be in the air in about 30min to an hour from now
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One of the 6Z 986MB going into me



No liking it either!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I'm ready for another flood of 2009 again...that was awesome to watch... 1 in 500yr floods are awesome..

But im not counting on anything yet

anyway, ill be back this afternoon guys
That would be 2 in 500 years then if it does happen! But yes they are AWESOME!
Quoting E46Pilot:
Whenever the forecast models show a FL hit this early, it always misses us.
I would normally agree with you, but on this one I think it is odd that the models haven't really changed in the last 2-3 days. Conditions may be good enough to keep these models in agreeance, even for the long term. ie The environment may not be so complex to introduce variables that may sway a model another way. This may be more accurate than you think, given the current conditions of course. If FLA is still in the 4-5 day cone and the models have not moved, it may be a sure bet by then.
Quoting NOLALawyer:
"That's no moon....that's a space station."

Yeah, you're right...Chewey get us out of here!
Quoting lovemamatus:
Don't take your eye off of the ball. Im talking about 96L. Shes four days behind Isaac, and she looks like she means business.

Get with the Pros....96L...The Storm's Storm!!!
They are like 2 velociraptors entering the kitchen! LOL.
hmm TD9 seem to be stationary now after just taking a jog true N should fall back to WSW-S of due W soon
Quoting 954Soxfan:
I don't wish a storm on anyone else but selfishly I am glad to see that South Florida looks like it will dodge yet another bullet. I feel bad for the panhandle of florida or the gulf but happy its not coming here to Fort Lauderdale!!!
So which Sox, White or Red? And don't be too sure about dodging that bulett . Too early to say for sure, even though the models are trending towards Tampa. Still in the windshield wiper stage after 72 hours.