WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Threat to New Orleans grows

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:36 PM GMT on August 26, 2005

Latest compter model runs have shifted significantly west in the past six hours, and the threat of a strike on New Orleans by Katrina as a major hurricane has grown. The official NHC forecast is now 170 miles west of where it was at 11am, and still is to the east of the consensus model guidance. It would be no surprise if later advisories shift the forecast track even further west and put Katrina over New Orleans. Until Katrina makes its northward turn, I would cast a very doubtful eye on the model predictions of Katrina's track. So much for the model prediction being high confidence, as I was surmising at 8am this morning! Recurvature is a difficult situation to forecast correctly.

The pressure of Katrina has continued to slowly drop, to 965mb. Dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane has interfered with the strengthening process, and may continue to do so over the next day. I still expect Katrina to attain Category 3 status Saturday, but Category 4 is looking less likely due to the dry air to the north. As one can see from the latest long range radar out of Key West, the northwest side of the eyewall is fragmented.

Some fairly prodigious rain amounts fell in the Miami area today. Homestead south of Miami measured 13.2 inches, and isolated amounts of 15 - 20 inches were observed between Homestead and Miami. The 7.55 inches at Key West was its 10th heaviest rainy day in history.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Try this link intead, because this one works :)

Link
i think the just recoerde a flighleve winds og 98 kts as they rammed thru the eye wall, but i might have read the recon statement wrong
As NHC stated, FSU superensemble calls for 922 mb before landfall, which I think could be conservative since we are now seeing an explosion in intensity. Winds will eventually catch up to the pressure, and the 5am advisory will likely have pressure down to the low 940's.
Just saw that Hawk Looks just like a Dougnut. CAT 4 for Sure.
man the microwave data is really impressive as well
1006. Canenut
SELU, that links been down for hours...
Orlando Fl.
check out this sat img. set the loop to fast and freaking enjoy


Link
1009. Selu
Thanks, Cane...yeah, I've been trying to get into it for hours.

Can anyone suggest a good place to view the latest model plots?
The microwave data on the Navy site is almost 6 hours old, so I'm pretty sure a new MW image would be more impressive.
ueah i saw that, i hadn't looked at it for some time cause i was mainly looking at radar but that is almmost out of reach. did u check out that sat img link i just posted
the NWS radar out of Ruskin.....is that the eye I see at the bottom of the display???Link
this is a scary looking storm check it out. set the speed to fast


Link
yes thats the eye
That is a great loop, Lefty. I have two observations... the outflow to the east and south is phenomenal, and the wsw motion absolutely refuses to cease and the north to northeasterly mid to upper level flow should continue to push katrina to the wsw for a while longer. A meteorologist on another site even brought up Mitch as a scenario in the past in which a storm was forecast to turn wnw to nw but instead turned southwest and kept on going.
yeah i doubt that will happen. but it would save tons of lives
Ahhhh ha! Look Link Turn on the MSLP(2) It shows the weakining of the High because of the diping ridge. This was not present 4-5 hrs ago. That is going to open up a highway for her to finnally go WNW then N. Maybe even NE right at the end....
I am going to bed now so I don't end up sleeping through half of tomorrow.
hey guys--by 1800hrs tommorrow the oil industry will be dark all the way to high island-----92% of the work force...this COULD last for 3 days.after damage assesment....dam dont you wish california could pick up SOME of slack........PLEASE
1020. nola
I just woke up and it looks like there has been a dramatic change in the scenario. It looks like I have a lot to do today. I haven't had time to look at the radar yet... has there been any change of direction to the N yet?
mitch followed a similar path that katrina did if u will, the problemwas mitch ran in to honduras befor he could make his turn. he than turned and reformed and slammed into florida. also 7 years ago. alot better forcasting now. but good obs
no, she is forcasted tocontoinue wsw for another 6hrs and than turn wnw or nw at that time. looks like she will hit near no
wow the ships model now call for 142 mph at landfall. thats 15 mph more than her last run. i see ketrina as atleast some where from 145-170mph at landfall
1024. Selu
NHC will have to shift the track a little more west soon, because Katrina is already SW of the NHC track. IF she turns north in the next six hours, look for the track to shift just southwest of New Orleans.

Still, it will be horrifically devastating to New Orleans. This would put NO on the east side of this storm.
i doubt that cause thers a ne compunent at the end of the forcast track and if they move the forcast west it would be over no as it is east right now
but we will see where she goes. its out of our hands. its in gods now
1027. Selu
Lefty, at any rate, how much would you wager that the Big Easy is in for the big one?

If it turns in six hours, I don't see how it can go much of anywhere BUT New Orleans.

Like I told you before, I'm about 90-100 north of New Orleans. We've already got the generators gassed up, and have filled as many gas cans as we own, and all of the vehicles. The only thing I have left to buy is ice--I imagine ice will start selling out tomorrow.
i would put 100 bucks on no seeing the hnad ofgod thats her new name. the hand of god. check oit this sat loop. set it to fast

Link
I have been lurking all day, have been really interested in all the posts. I am in st mary parish, baldwin la. (here is where I am located to give you an idea of my area relative to the tracking.. Link

I am starting to get a little nervous. We are only a few miles from Vermillion bay. Just letting everyone know what is and isn't going on in our little part of the world. So far our parish emergency management officials haven't notified our police dept of any action and our officers aren't on standby yet. I expect that could change sometime today. I know there has been some interest in how government bodies are reacting and though I can't help with the big cities I can keep you up with how they are reacting in our area.

see its harf for some govt to see a storm commuing when she is say moving in the opp direction. that will cause many people their lives. i belive if she has heading north right now regardless of how far away landfall was say 5 days things would be diff
1031. Dragoon
Hmm, so I said a 10 mb drop and there was a 15

I did say it could be stronger though, lol. Just like a good forecaster.. always give that "could" clause.

In any case, yes it appears Katrina is becoming a dangerous storm.
from here on out she is no longer katrina, she is the hand of god
1033. Selu
Louisiana and New Orleans officials KNOW that Katrina is gunning for them, yet STILL no evacuation orders. Not even an evacuation suggestion.

And here.
1034. Dragoon
Lefty as melodramatic as that statement was.. you are essentially right. We can only hope that internal processes cause her to weaken just before landfall. It happened with Lili, perhaps it will happen with Katrina too.
1035. Selu
Newer computer model plots than I had seen. Look how everything is clustered on New Orleans now. Just a couple of hours ago, BAM and LBAR were plotted WEST of the Mississippi River. Now they are all moving tightly around New Orleans.
perhaps but maybe those were just warnings. this will be horrible
1037. Selu
Now 949 mb.
closed eye wall now. she is now a cat3 max fl winds 104kts
Just gassed up both vehicles, as I'm a little SE of New Orleans, watching anxiously, and planning my exit. This loop (Link) updates frequently, and seems to reflect a W or slightly NNW movement over the last 45 minutes. Could this be the beginning of the turn? And if so, I wonder if this is sooner than the forecast, resulting in a track and ultimate landfall to the right of that predicted. Not that I want ANYONE to get this storm, except an island inhabited solely by Al-Quaida.
1040. Dragoon
That only translates to 95 kts at the surface. At best. Or in otherwords right where they have her at now, which is 110 mph. That pressure is too low for the winds to be done increasing though. They'll catch up with the pressure fall soon enough.
1041. Selu
gb, it's later than NHC forecasted, but right along with other models.
they will upgrade her based on the pressure alone
1043. Dragoon
They didn't with Emily when her pressure plummeted like that. They waited for the winds to come up and match, if I'm not mistaken.
we will see
1045. nola
This is surprising - nothing on the local news. They usually go into special programming but haven't done so yet. I guess they are going to issue something very early. I guess I was waiting to see the northerly turn but just reviewed the radar. If anything, I saw a southerly movement. Am I seeing something that isn't there?
1046. Selu
gbunder...

Look here to see how Katrina is already SW of the NHC track.

Look here to see how she's tracking in accordance with other models.
1047. Dragoon
Yeah I just went back and looked. They released a special advisory once higher flight level winds were found. The same will probably be the case here. Although they may just bump the intensity to 115 mph and officially make it a major hurricane at 5 just to wake everyone up.
After carefully watching the look over and over on the satellite imagery. The dry air pocket that we've been seeing as a possible weakening sign for the hurricane appears to no longer be there. The hurricane at 2:15 AM had a reading of 950 MB with a 15 MB drop since 11 PM. Also Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a top wind of 145 MPH at 1000 ft above the surface. I do believe this hurricane will be a Strong Category 4 if not a Low Category 5 at landfall.... Satellite Imagery is showing perfect outflow of high cirrus clouds. The only thing that is not as distinct as what Dennis was is the EYE is not showing as well. - Thoughts?
1049. Selu
nola, since you just logged on to wunderground, here's some info you might now find very encouraging.

The closest hotel vacancy north of New Orleans is in Oxford, MS. Nothing else in Mississippi has vacancies south of Oxford. If you are going to go west, the closest you will find is Houston, TX.

If I were you, I'd book something soon and GTHOOD.
1050. Selu
Make that "might not find very encouraging"
1051. nola
Thanks for the info.
an eye is not a feature that has to be there . you can see it in vis but the super typhoon earler this year in the pacific did not have a noticible ey pn vis. the ir shopws a well defined eye
1053. Selu
Imagery on Weather Channel just now showed a jog to the NNW. Anyone see that?

Could this be the beginning of the turn to the north?
1054. Dragoon
WeatherSpotter where did you get that report of 145 mph flight level winds?
Warren Madden on TWC reported that - He advised they threw some instrument and it had a reading of 125 knots which corresponds to 145 MPH
Selu,

Thanks for the links. The jog you saw is, I believe, what I also noticed on the sat loop. To me, it indeed looks like a W/WNW movement. If or how this changes things, I dunno. I plan to get some sleep, reassess in the early AM, then most likely head out to a friend's house on high ground well north of New Orleans. Still could get wind damage there, but flooding and surge won't be a concern.
1057. Dragoon
A dropsonde measured that eh? I would think that would have been enough for them to issue a special advisory. Maybe since its so close to 5 already they're just going to wait.
1058. Selu
Best wishes, gbunder. Take care of you and yours.
i wanna see the new wind forcast. i can't see her sitting at 115 kts for 48 hrs over the gulf loop
Yep he definately mentioned it - I was watching it right when he was talking about the major drop from 963 to 950. Anyone think this could be come a Cat 5 at landfall?
i think they just don't want to cause a panic
oh yeah i do. i see no reason for her to weaken other than her eye wall replacements but if u get strong enough like issabele u can go thru a cycle and not drop down to a 4 at all
There is less than 10 knots of vertical wind shear and with water temperatures in the mid 90's you just can't get any better fuel for this storm. Nothing to weaken this storm now since the dry pocket from earlier is now gone.
1064. Selu
What's going to be bad, REALLY BAD, is the traffic on I-10, I-59, and I-55 tomorrow. When people wake up and see the track adjustment and the way she's intensified, they will start packing and leaving. I hope.

I'm still perplexed as to why NOLA hasn't issued voluntary evacuation orders.
1065. Dragoon
Well generally when a storm gets so strong they just forecast it to stay where it is.. because climatalogically they typically don't stay at that intensity very long. If that dropsonde measurement was accurate and it is taken into consideration.. the 5 AM intensity should be around 130-135 mph.. They will probably choose the latter because they can't put 112.5 kts as an initial intensity. So.. if they do go with 115 kts.. I would say the new intensity forecast would likely call for an increase to perhaps 130 kts.. but after that just leveling off.

They are very very reluctant to FORECAST any intensity higher than that because few storms keep intensifying at that level.
and i think she was goping thru one as the planes fle in. in a longer ir loop from the navy u can see the eye get real tiny then expand again. it was really neat. heres the link


Link
1067. Dragoon
What they may say is that "the possibility of Katrina becoming a Category 5 Hurricane is not out of the question" or something like that.. or maybe even "Katrina may get a bit stronger than forecast"
check out that link and tell me what u think
I agree with you but like I said with water temperatures being 95 degrees and no wind shear at all worth mentioning and the eye is really starting to get going and getting tightly wrapped and if thee dropsonde was accurate to show 125 knots I feel the NHC will issue it being 110 knots at 5 am advisory
i said earlier i think she will be 145-170 at landfall

check out this ir loop and tell me what u think. just selct the most recent button

Link
Yea its pretty cool showing that eye getting itty bitty then getting bigger again over and over. Definate signs of strengthening. All I know is that if a Cat 4 or 5 hits New Orleans hell even at a Cat 3 will demolish that city being its not 100 feet above sea level.
1072. Selu
Weatherspotter, only 45 minutes until the next NHC update. We'll see then. :)
she is the hand of god
thast why i like the navy site cause u can get a longer loop with closer together img so u don't miss those kind of details
1075. Dragoon
If the dropsonde measurement happened and it read 125 kts then yes.. the intensity will probably be raised to 110 if not 115 kts.
1076. Selu
Much of New Orleans is 10 ft. BELOW sea level.
Yep - Only thing I hate is sometimes it takes them a while to put the advisory on their website. I hate that I like to know as soon as it comes out.

Do any of you all know of a Chat Room that doesn't have to be refreshed we could all go to to keep a solid conversation.
1078. Dragoon
That would be excellent WeatherSpotter, lol.
I mean if everyone has Yahoo Messenger I could create a conference and add everyone to my list that is on here and invite them in if you all wanted to do that.

My prediction for 5 AM advisory

MB: 945 - 947
Intensity: 115 Knots
1080. Dragoon
I just have AIM unfortunately.
1081. iyou
Here's a site that loaded with information about Katrina - invaluable - Link
Hey whats your AIM name? I'll message you
1083. Dragoon
Oh, the new T numbers on Katrina read a 6.0.. very impressive
Refresh me on the " T " number is and provide link of information.
1085. Dragoon
My AIM is shadowXdragoon
***New Information***

New Pass by Hurricane Hunter

MB is now at 945
1087. Dragoon
New pressure is now 945 mb.

Just keeps going down.
They just reported the pressure on twc at 945
pressure now 945 wow
1090. Carbo04
According to the Weather Channel the pressure is now 945 MB, but will get another reading from the aircraft at 5. So probably 944 at 5.
what a monster
1092. Dragoon
Link

T Numbers are there.
guess we are all watching the same thing..lol
yeah we are lol
1095. Carbo04
What else is there to watch? =)
1096. Selu
lefty, just curious...when is the last time you slept? Maybe after the 5AM update, you can catch a nap. Everytime I've been on the boards here, you've been here. Try to catch several hours sleep after the 5 update.
1097. Carbo04
I don't think it will happen, but anyone believe we might see a pressure in the 800's by Sunday?
Selu
Are you in Hattiesburg?
waiting for the local news to see what they are going to say. I get off of work at 0700 so i won't hear what is going on here until i come back at 1900
1100. iyou
oops - here's that site - http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL10
Thank you for advice yesterday. You are right about USM president - too stubborn for his own good or for the students for that matter.
man i can't imagine anything below 900 but maybe. yeah thanks for the heads up. i actually took a nap for a couple hours this afternoon but i will probly will go to sleep here soon. the problem is when u wake up everything is diff lol. thats why i love weather. theres always something happening
1103. Dragoon
Any pressure in the 800s is something that no one wants to see.
I found this page, which is an analysis run for a hypothetical Cat 3 hitting New Orleans directly, on a track close to that forecast for Katrina. It is scary. Note that the water depths are given in METERS!

Unless there's an unexpected turn, I'm outta here tomorrow!
1105. Selu
Southern, I'm in Pike County. McComb area.

And I couldn't agree with you more about the evil gnome. Ol' Shelboo's too stubborn for his own good. He MIGHT consider cancelling classes Monday morning. ;-)
1106. Selu
lefty, I KNOW. I was going to bed at 1AM, but look how much things have changed in three hours! I'm going to lie down for awhile after the next update, and set my alarm for 8, so that I don't miss the next update. LOL.
omg that is shocking
1108. Carbo04
115 MPH / 945 as of 5AM.
Does anyone know what the lowest recorded pressure of a storm has been? Just curious.
I lost my post. I am waiting for the local morning news, will let ya'll know if they make any evac announcements. Probably won't hear anything at work until i come back tonight.
cat 3 she went major. i think her major is detrscution
1111. Selu
Cat 3: 115 MPH, 945 mb. latest NHC updated. Track is moving due west now.
My neice is kinda scared - she has only been in MS for 13 days. Just started at USM and is on the cross country team. The athletic dept gives the athletes a list of different types of doctors they may see. Guess what? The only dentists listed were his SONS!
1113. Dragoon
stmary in the atlantic its Hurricane Gilbert at 888 mb

All time is Typhoon Tip in the west pacific at 870 mb
1114. Dragoon
Hey lefty my prediction was right lol. They just bumped it to 115 to make it major and wake people up.
1115. Carbo04
Can you friggen imagine a storm with a pressure of 870!? That's like the hand of god.
yeah i hope so. she is a monster and has yet to hit the gulf loop yet
1117. Dragoon
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS BECOME A LARGER HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.

That is the biggest news by far.
omg. the weather chane guy just said hes going home to fill his gas tank. omg my wife commutes to work this will tear up our budget
1119. Selu
Southern, how did I know that! :-)

The good thing is, though, that if she needs care by bone docs, Southern Bone and Joint is EXCELLENT. Tell her to ask for Dr. Line if she ever needs to go there.

Is your niece staying put in the Hub throughout the storm or will she be traveling home? The last time a hurricane came through Hattiesburg (Georges in 1998) campus was closed for a week or two. Katrina looks much stronger than Georges. *scared*
i said that earlier, i expect her to grow in size. we will see how big she gets
1121. Selu
Did y'all see this in the NHC advisory:

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
I believe this advisory was just to get everyone knowing hey this is a major hurricane and you need to get your butt going now.
1123. Dragoon
Yes I knew a long time ago that the tropical storm force winds were out farther than 85. I made a comment earlier about Key West being 120 miles away from the center and still experiencing TS force winds.

Personally I don't think she'll get much larger than this. I believe this increase in size was just a natural phenomenon as her structure evolved.
We live about 3 miles from USM towards Oak Grove. I was here for George, but she wasn't. We are from Michigan. Lost a couple of trees with George and was without power for about a week. I had the rest of the darn pine trees cut down - so no fear of any hitting the house :>
1125. Selu
I hope your niece will stay with you through the storm. she doesn't need to stay at the dorms, if that's where she is. I can't imagine anything worse than being stuck at a USM shabby dorm without power.
thanks dragoon for the info
Yes, she lives with my hubby and me. Thank you for the Dr. name, I wrote it down. And hopefully, we will not need it. I told her last night - IF it does hit MS or we get residual from the storn - she can invite as many of her friends from the dorms that can't go home here - we have lots of air mattresses. I wouldn't want to be in those dorms either!
alright heading to bed. that was a weak disscussion. they only uped the forcast winds to 120 kts. i think that is a little conservative based on the enviroment and sst. well we will see. good night all see yall in the morning
1129. Selu
Times Picayune says that evacuation, if ordered, will begin 50 hours before landfall. Doesn't that mean that evacuation should begin in, oh, twelve hours?

From the Times Picayune today:

KATRINA PUTS END TO LULL
STORM'S WESTWARD PATH PUTS N.O. ON EDGE
Saturday, August 27, 2005
By Mark Schleifstein
Staff writer
Hurricane Katrina gained strength and took aim at the Gulf Coast on Friday night, with a path forecast to hit southeast Louisiana on Monday as a Category 4 storm with top winds of 132 mph.

National Hurricane Center forecasters were predicting landfall in lower Plaquemines Parish..

Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency late Friday, making it easier to implement emergency procedures, including evacuations, if necessary.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said he will make a decision about evacuations and other emergency procedures today about noon.

"If it continues to shift to the west, then we know we'll have to take action," Nagin said Friday night.

The Louisiana Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness already had mobilized its crisis action team and has plans to activate its Baton Rouge emergency operations center today at 7:30 a.m., spokesman Mark Smith said.

State officials convened a conference call with emergency preparedness directors from southeastern Louisiana parishes Friday at 5 p.m. to update officials on the forecast and state plans, Smith said.

"But we're in a state of flux," he said. "Nobody's real sure exactly what Katrina is going to do."

More at this link.

And, here's a tidbit for you. On this date, in 1718, French explorers founded the city of New Orleans.
1130. Selu
That's so nice of you, Southern. I bet the girls will really enjoy that. You all stay safe.
Does the hurricane hunters talk to the hurricane center by radio? and if so do you know their frequencies?
lefty or stormtop, seems she has taken the turn ???
12 platforms evacuated; crews move into area hotels

The Daily Advertiser from Lafayette http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050827/NEWS01/508270310/1002

Lafayette is about 45 mins or so north of me. I know there has been some interest in the oil rigs.

The westward turn at last. And I just moved into a house 3 blocks from the beach. I'm not even unpacked yet.

Time to go gas up the vehicles...
sorry here is the Link
1136. Selu
Wxspotter...

For hurricane hunter frequencies, look here, here, and here and here.

U.S. Coast Guard (Hurricane Hunters), 304.8
I don't seem to recall this much excitement whem IVAN thrashed along, this could be the one!
What frequency are they using to talk back to the NHC.... I would like to listen to them when I get home from work. I have a HF rig setup with a large wire antenna
1139. Selu
Wx, that I can't tell you. I just found those pages quickly on a google search.
I would love to be able to listen to them when I get home - I should be able to hear them if propagation comes my way.
I guess the blog is dead everyone getting a nap before the new update comes out
not me i am stuck until 700 then i guess im gonna go to the store and get a few more things to add to my stock... just in case.
1143. Selu
Guys, look at the new NHC Track. Dead center through NOLA. OMG. On the image, see where that 2AM Tuesday dot is? Well, that's about 30 miles northeast of my house.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/085817W_sm.gif
Sure feel for them guys - My girlfriend lives in Baton Rouge - she is a police dispatcher for the City.
1145. Selu
stmary. Look at the new NHC track. Where are you, in relation to the new track? I'd get the he77 out of dodge, if I were you, if you are within 50 miles of NOLA.
1146. lsugirl
Wow, this is such a great site, you all are so informative! Unfortunately this is a very scary situation! I am in Baton Rouge, and I bet that I-10 is going to be a mess in the morning with early evacuations.
I am about 85/90 miles(as the crow flies) or so west of NO. I am on the coast, about 8 or 9 miles from Vermilion Bay. But my little town sits on a patch of land that is relatively high compared to the swampland that surrounds it.

We took a direct hit from Andrew and didn't flood. Our house took the beating pretty well also. No trees near our house. Our landlord has cut them all down. LOL. Unfortunately we are a family of 6(was 7 but oldest daughter is safe and sound in north Texas) and only a small truck for transportation.

We are safe from storm surge and flooding. Our biggest risk will be from wind if she ends up coming any closer.

We rode out Andrew and then fled from Lili, who wimped out and made it a wasted trip. All the way to Tyler, Tx.

So far nothing from our parish officials. I figure that will happen later today.
1148. nola
Still nothing yet from NO officials but I expect that to change very soon. Just got back from Walmart to stock up - traffic was light, just a few people getting gas, no run in the grocery stores. Models look bad for us; only thing worse would be if the eye comes in slightly west of the city. This makes me remember Betsy - 40 years ago. It should get pretty hectic here in the next few hours.
1149. Dragoon
Pressure is now down to 940 mb.
Does anyone thing Hillary Andrews is about half kooo kooo - How she bob's that head and all that I'm surprised she doesn't break her neck...

Where did you see the 940 MB Update?
Hey LSUGirl,

My GF works as a PD dispatcher in baton rouge la, I'm trying to get her to come up where I am but I think she's going to stay and help the Police Department.
1152. Dragoon
940 mb is on the nhc site.
1153. Dragoon
000
URNT12 KNHC 270953
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/09:32:40Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
084 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 2591 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 045 deg 090 kt
G. 316 deg 010 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 17 C/ 3045 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 104 KT NE QUAD 07:08:10 Z
SMALL HAIL SE EYEWALL.
1154. Dragoon
The only thing that doesn't seem so healthy about Katrina is the fact that the thermal gradient is only 2 degrees C

For a storm of this pressure and strength it should be closer to 9 or 10 degrees
1155. lsugirl
Hello WeatherSpotter,

I'm not even going to try to leave BR at this point. I've seen how bad I-10 gets when the evacs start. I do not want to be caught in that chaos! I figure I will ride it out, or find a shelter if the worst scenario occurs,
Yea I've asked her to come north - I'm in Kentucky we've been together for 1 year and we see each other about a week every 2 to 3 months once things get straighten out one of us is going to move. LOL
1157. nola
Dragoon - please explain significance of "thermal gradient"... What does that mean?
stmarylalady...my dad says "run from the water...hide from the wind" I grew up in your neighborhood and we went through Hurricane Hilda in the '60's. He said the eye was about 4 miles from us.
LOL MaryEsther, yes, that sounds like a familiar saying.

Our house has been around over a 100 yrs so I am kinda hoping it can weather one more storm if need be.

You sure were in our neighborhood. Hilda was a couple of years before me but I use to hear stories from my mom and grandma about her. What town were you living in back then?
Town?!...Weeks Island...it was a company village then, but high elevation. I was a teenager but remember the sound of "locomotives" in the woods. We were in a small frame house, but didn't have damage to us.
LSUGIRL are you still there?
sorry to get you all off topic...just be safe and prepared...from northwest Florida
:-)
omg...you grew up on weeks island?...how cool.....i live in st mary parish now but grew up in new iberia...my mom's family is from coteau and my dads is from lydia.

isn't it funny how so many of those old houses hold up so well.
yes, I wanted to let you know I knew what it's like to be on "an island in the swamp" in an older house. Lydia was on the way to almost everywhere for us. I went to highschool in New Iberia.
nish....class of 84
well, would of been nihs class of 66, except we moved to Baton Rouge just in time for Betsy!
Where's StormTop? Have to say he called it right Friday morning. Ridge doesn't seem to be breaking down.
:( dissapointed kerigangirl in columbia, sc - sure hoping it would come this way and keep temps down all week.
Hey WeatherSpotter - ditto on the Hillary Andrews post. Not a fan of WC in the morning. Trying to get too "cute" or something. Wish they would go back to being more technical. Used to offer a lot more detail and just some plain old weather maps instead of all the graphics. If I wanted that I could watch the other morning shows.

Yea she seems off in my opinion - I'm surprised they even keep her cause she's a disguist watching her in the mornings.
000
URNT12 KNHC 271119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/11:07:50Z
B. 24 deg 23 min N
084 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2594 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 158 deg 085 kt
G. 053 deg 031 nm
H. EXTRAP 942 mb
I. 8 C/ 3042 m
J. 20 C/ 3046 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 29
MAX FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 09:34:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 52 / 7NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
PRELIMINARY!
Millibars have seemed to level out at 940 - 942 MB's at this time
1172. wxgssr
WV indicates a sw trof in TX pandle is begging t oerode teh ridge a bit...first evidence I have seen of the forecasted erosion. One it makes it over the ridge axis, it will begin to move se toweards teh GUlf caost...opening the predicted "soft spot" for Katrina ot traveres through.

Big day of cutting plywood ahead of me...already have it here just need to shape it to the windows. Needed to get done anyway, and nothing like mama nature's cattle prod to help "get er done..."

Said this before, but NHC really wasted their 11:00 am opportunity yesterday, IMO. They could have "walked west" at 11:00 and 5:00 instead of making the "giant leap" at 5:00 yesterday pm. Watch, Max Mayfield will answer this by saying NOLA was in the 72 hour cone at 11:00 yesterday morning...which they were...but instead of being on the extreme left flank, and having a Govt Official prodding move closer to centerline of the track would have been a better solution. Some of us saw all the same stuff they did before the 11:00 was issued. In their defense, it could be argued that they were still concerned about a right hook close to the Fl west coast both meteorologically and politically.
Empirical evidence was NOT supporting that hook though...the SW dive and the real world environmental analysis did not support it at all. I remember posting on this blog somewhere wondering what I was missing to keep them so far right. Apparently, nothing.
Now, the entire SE LA governmental decision makers are behind the curve. They need to order an evacuation RIGHT NOW...if they have a hope of getting people outta there before conditions deteriorate to the point that further movement is not an option on Monday.
1173. wxgssr
WOW 12 degree C thermal spread. Cue the "shark is approaching" music from Jaws...lol
1174. wxgssr
Weatehr Spotter, the 942 mb is extrapolated from FL...it may be deeper or higher when they get a dropsonde reading.
We'll see in 25 minutes are you going to stay round for the 8:00 advisory
1176. wxgssr
"WV indicates a sw trof in TX pandle is begging t oerode teh ridge a bit...first evidence I have seen of the forecasted erosion. One it makes it over the ridge axis, it will begin to move se toweards teh GUlf caost...opening the predicted "soft spot" for Katrina ot traveres through."

Let me clean that up..like I should have before I hit send, DOH!

WV indicates a s/w trof in TX panhandle is beggining to erode the ridge a bit...first evidence I have seen of the forecasted erosion. Once it makes it over the ridge axis, it will begin to move SE towards the Gulf coast...opening the predicted "soft spot" for Katrina to traverse through.


Traffic is light in NOLA. http://www.dotd.state.la.us/press/traffic_cameras/cameras_no.asp?camera=Cam4
It will not be pretty when evac orders are issued.
wxgssr, are you going to stick around the forum for the 8 am advisory?
1179. wxgssr
Yeah, then I need to start sawing away...
They may or may not get a DS in time for the 0800 update, I was just pointing out that it was an extrapolated SLP.
nothing new on the 8AM advisory
No change from the 5am advisory - I'm outta here for the day - will be back tonight - Have a great day everyone.
1182. wxgssr
breakfast and woodworking...will check back later.
yep, nothing new, my shift is over, gonna try to catch some zzzs if I can, after a trip to the store. Will be reading you guys' posts this afternoon.
The latest GFDL and GFS models have swung eastward to the Biloxi-Pascagoula, MS area.

Hmmm...
None the less even if it does hit Biloxi - its still going to get NO hard with the rain and storm surge. It will be interesting to see what happens today and tonight with the hurricane.
well she is in the midest of a eye wall replcement, she has grown is size. i expect her to satrt rapidly stregthening again in 3 hrs
1187. MSY68
ANY THOUGHTS HERE on whether this will miss NO and hit further east...im in NO and am still trying to decide whther to stay
1188. LaFleur
MSY68 I'm in the SAME boat. My big problem is trying to decide WHERE to go. If you don't have a reservation, you're out of luck. Closest rooms are Dallas and Memphis.
1189. MSY68
LaFleur...i know..i checked and flight are all sold out...no seats available
1190. MSY68
Pressures at 940MB...10am advisory is finally out
1191. MSY68
wind is now forecast for 140 mph at landfall with cat 5 still a possibility
1192. MSY68
CAT 5 direct hit for NO....say good bye to NO forever if that happens
YIKES!