WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Thousands dead in Myanmar tropical cyclone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:33 PM GMT on May 05, 2008

A disaster of horrific proportions has befallen Myanmar, where the death toll is now over 4,000, with thousands more missing, in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. Nargis--a popular woman's name in India--is the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar (Burma). The storm hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as borderline Category 3/Category 4 cyclone, with winds of 130-135 mph. After passing over the low-lying and densely populated Irrawaddy River delta region, Nargis made a direct hit on the capital city of Rangoon (Yangon), as a Category 1 storm with top winds of 80 mph. Winds at the Yangon airport hit 69 mph, gusting to 138 mph, at 5:30am local time on Saturday. The anemometer failed at that point, and the winds likely rose higher.

Figure 1. Population density of Myanmar, with Nargis' track superimposed. Nargis passed over some of the most densely populated regions of the country. Image credit: Columbia University's CIESEN.

However, it was the storm surge, not the winds, that was the big killer in Nargis. The storm tracked over the low-lying Irrawaddy River delta region, which is highly vulnerable to storm surge deaths due to its low elevation, dense population, and limited hurricane awareness of the people. I could find no records of a major tropical cyclone ever making a direct hit on the Irrawaddy River delta. The ocean bottom off the coast of Myanmar is quite shallow (Figure 2). A large area of Continental Shelf waters with depth 200 meters or less extends far out to sea. This is a situation similar to the Gulf of Mexico, and is ideal for allowing large surge surge to pile up over the shallow waters. The counter-clockwise circulation of winds around Nargis likely built up a storm surge of at least 4 meters (13 feet), that then smashed ashore into the Irrawaddy Delta region, drowning thousands of people.

Figure 2. Bathymetry of the Bay of Bengal. The shallow waters of the Continental Shelf (mostly shallower than 200 meters) are shaded whitish-grey. The shallow waters south of Rangoon allowed the counter-clockwise circulation or winds around Nargis to pile up a large storm surge to the right of the storm's track. Image credit:geomapapp.org.

Storm surges of four meters have been recorded along the Myanmar coast in at least one other cyclone. The Gwa cyclone of May 4, 1982--a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds--hit just north of where Nargis struck, and carried a four meter high storm surge to the coast. Fortunately, that storm hit far enough north that it was not able to pile up a huge storm surge along the southern shore of the Irrawaddy Delta. The official death toll from the Gwa cyclone was only five people, but was probably very much higher. The military junta that has controlled Myanmar since 1962 has been known to conceal the number of people killed in natural disasters. The highest official death toll from a tropical cyclone in Myanmar is 187, during the Category 1 storm that hit on May 7, 1975. According to a email I received form Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather:

Statistics concerning disasters in Burma since the mid-1960s must be viewed with some skepticism since the authorities always want to pretend they have control of all situations whether natural or societal, and outsiders are never allowed access to devastated sites--I am sure this will be the case again with Cyclone Nargis. We may never know the true magnitude of what happened. I was in Rangoon just 7 weeks ago (I've been visiting Burma for 30 years on a regular basis--every year since) and can tell you that if winds as strong as reported occurred, the damage must be enormous (the vast majority of structures in the city are poorly built and even the newer construction was not constructed with CAT 3 winds in mind.

During the tsunami event of Dec. 26, 2005 the 'official' death toll was something like 69, but in reality many hundreds were killed (estimates 300-800) in the Mergui Archipelago just north of the Thai border. In fact, not included in the official death toll (in Burma or Thailand) were hundreds and perhaps 1,000 illegal Burmese immigrants working in the hotel industry at Kao Lak in Thailand (just north of Phuket where the worst damage occurred in Thailand).

Figure 3. Simulated storm surge of the May 4, 1982 cyclone that hit Gwa, Myanmar. The Gwa cyclone was a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds shortly before landfall. Storm surge values of four meters (13 feet) were measured and simulated just to the right of where the the cyclone hit the coast. Note that the counter-clockwise circulation around the cyclone also drove a high storm surge into the bay just east of Rangoon. The reported death toll was only five, but was probably much higher. Image credit: "Simulation of Storm Surges Along Myanmar Coast Using a Location Specific Numerical Model" (Jain et al., Natural Hazards 39, 1, September 2006).

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

man this sucks!
80. Cazatormentas 1:47 AM PDT on May 05, 2008
Hi there !

I was surprised by MISAWA and KADENA typhoons in the Western Pacific Storm Advisories... Clearly this is an error. I have been looking for full disk satellite images trying to find them, but I only find two invests at that area.

I'm not sure how those typhoons have appeared :P !

Perhaps suddenly forecast models have improved a lot and they are showing their development? :D

Regards from Spain.

what you are seeig is not real what they are doing overe there is testing

like so this was from last night

050000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 132.0E

they are olny testing none of the storms are real

i hop this helps
772. HadesGodWyvern 7:36 AM PDT on May 05, 2008
The first three typhoon exercises are at super typhoon status now. (130 knots)

this is olny a test none of the storms are real
where did commet # 3 go or are we this skiping # this AM or is it a bug in the blogs that needs to be fixs?
Very tragic, Doctor Masters. Appreciate the update.
Dr. Masters said...

"A disaster of horrific proportions has befallen Myanmar, where the death toll is now over 4,000, with thousands more missing, in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. Nargis--a popular woman's name in India--is the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclone ever to hit Myanmar (Burma)."........

Sorry to hear about this.
i think there is some in mass up with the commet # on dr m blog the # in here are up to 6 but the # of commets on the Featured Blogs are olny up to 4

Yep, thanks for the update Dr M. Very sad.

It is ashame that these areas get so closed off by the government. I can not help but imagine that this hampers the relief and help efforts.
Good to see ya Ike :~)
13. IKE
11. StormJunkie 9:51 AM CDT on May 05, 2008
Good to see ya Ike :~)

Yo bud..........

May. 4 - Hundreds of people have been killed after a powerful cyclone pounded parts of Myanmar.

Myanmar's military government declared disaster areas in five states on Sunday after Cyclone Nargis pounded the Irrawaddy delta region. The former capital Yangon suffered a direct hit by the Category 3 storm, which packed winds of 120 mph (190 kph). One diplomat described the city as an "utter war zone." United Nations disaster experts said it would be days before the full extent of the damage was known.

That government's actions are criminal IMO for letting that happen. Aid will be offered, but will it reach it's intended recipients? It would be better to provide the aid beforehand, but outsiders can't just go in and take over preemptively (or even after) can they? "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure."

A Govt like in Burma dont have the resources nor manpower to deal with a catastrophe this large. Outside help will be critical in saving those without essential services.

Once the winds and water subsides...one has to be prepared to deal with No services or help for days..

Even in this Country.

Thats why a number of us stress Preparation .
Its the only recourse.
Wow the world is getting smaller. Hello everybody..Hi Ike Hi Pat...

Weather here in Florida is calm.

Taking Bets -
What date will the CMC model incorrectly forcast the first Storm of the season....

Or did they get the bugs worked out from last years debacle?
20. IKE
Probably within the next 2 weeks on the CMC! LOL. I doubt they got the bugs worked out.
Thanks Dr. Masters, it is unbelievable that in this day and age, so many have lost their lives in such a tragic way.
All tropical Models Have a role.

To focus on one isnt how it's done.

One looks for Consensus among them.
The CMC initializes more than most.

The "evacuations" will be carried out with tractors, trucks, and body bags. A government like this finds that those sort of evacuations have no voice, and can not complain.
24. IKE
Burma...from Wikipedia....

"On October 13, 2007, the military junta of Burma made people march in a government rally, reportedly paying some participants 1000 kyat (approximately $0.80) each. Junta officials also approached local factories and demanded they provide 50 workers each; if they didn't, they were to be fined.[39]

On 7 February 2008, SPDC announced that there will be referendum for the Constitution in May 2008, and Election by 2010.

Various global corporations have been criticized for profiting from the dictatorship by financing Burma's military junta.[40]

World governments remain divided on how to deal with the military junta. Calls for further sanctions by United Kingdom, United States, and France are opposed by neighboring countries; in particular, China has stated its belief that "sanctions or pressure will not help to solve the issue".[41]"..........

Maybe the Chinese will help them?
25. IKE
Well-known military juntas...

* Military Junta of Burma (Myanmar) (1988–present) or the 'State Peace and Development Council'

26. IKE
Summer time is approaching the Florida panhandle...

Partly cloudy. Highs 85 to 90. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.".....

By Saturday...87 to 92!
Remember, in December 2004 the sea floor raised and a tsunami occured due to an earthquake in Indonesisa. The whole ordeal claimed over 125,000 deaths in many different nations along the Indian Ocean coast. That particular event can not be predicted. If a large earthquake is reported in that region, word can get out to make sure people along the thousands of miles of coastline to seek higher ground. But an earthquake doesn't always mean a large tsunami event.

A Typhoon like Nargis is monitored for days in advance. People knew it would be bad they just hoped it wasn't going to be. Much like the people who gambled with their lives in New Orleans in 2005. Some folks just don't have the means to up and move and leave behind all they own.

All of the deaths in the last 5 years around the world cause by tropical storms do not equal that one Indonesian/Indian Ocean tsunami's death toll. They had it much worse with very little time to prepare and it was caused by a force not yet predictable or forecasted by sciences.

The weather tragedies around the world are horrible but they are inevitible. Just be thankful you yourself are here to read the news instead of being one of it's statistics.
28. IKE
From CNN......

"Cyclone death toll could hit 10,000
Almost 4,000 people have died after a weekend cyclone hit Myanmar, state media report. Diplomats said the country's foreign minister acknowledges as many as 10,000 could be dead."
Thank you for sharing this info on this tragic horrific update. Listening to that Youtube clip Patrap posted comparing Nardis to Katrina, it must be even worse for the people effected by Yardis since their economic structure is far below the U.S.'s to handle these disasters.

Hopefully other countries take notice to prepare for these distasters.
10,000+ deaths is still only 8% of 125,000+
31. IKE
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures have surpassed the once unthinkable price of $120 a barrel Monday as supply threats emerged overseas and the dollar weakened against the euro.

Gas prices(bangs head).
Keep banging IKE. Keep banging until you hear the american drills humming.
31. IKE 10:39 AM CDT on May 05, 2008
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil futures have surpassed the once unthinkable price of $120 a barrel Monday as supply threats emerged overseas and the dollar weakened against the euro.

Gas prices(bangs head).

I heard that gas was going for $10 a gallon in Myanmar right now, quadruple the price before Nargis hit...

Yangon residents also said Sunday that the price of gasoline had jumped from $2.50 to $10 a gallon on the black market and everything from eggs to construction supplies had tripled. Candles, which many people turned to with electricity largely down, doubled in price.

Ike, where'd you get that? I follow this Link

and if there's a more reputable site, I'd love to know, cause I try to keep up.
Nargis Impact,BBC: Video news Story Link

Another BBC one here. Link
36. IKE
aquak9 10:47 AM CDT on May 05, 2008
Ike, where'd you get that? I follow this Link

and if there's a more reputable site, I'd love to know, cause I try to keep up.

Here's where I get it...Link

Thanks Dr. Masters

Gene W.
Thanks, Ike. I followed all the way down to around $110 last week...figured there'd be a rebound.

Geeesh. If my wallet is so much lighter, I oughtta get better gas mileage, eh?
39. IKE
Gas prices, the economy...is awful.
From MSNBC, Myanmar once again is blocking outsiders from helping and viewing the damage. State control.

"...the Myanmar government initially had refused to allow a U.S. Disaster Assistance Response Team into the country to assess damage.

“We have a DART team that is standing by and ready to go into Burma to help try to assess needs there,” deputy spokesman Tom Casey told reporters. “As of this moment, the Burmese government has not given them permission, however, to go into the country so that is a barrier to us being able to move forward.”"
It sure is awful. Somethings have to be done. If a natrual disaster comes along this country might be at the breaking point.
43. IKE
Nice effort by their government. Unbelievable!
We can moan about it. Or we can assemble an Action Team to get some clothing, MRES and other essential's shipped in.
I like CMC, as is. It's the canary in the coal mine: warning people that dangerous conditions are arising well before anyone can be harmed.
Similarly, CMC forecasts&overdevelops TropicalCyclones out of darn near anything that could become a TropicalCyclone. Giving a "pay attention to what's happening" about specific "here"s to folks running (or reading) other modeling programs that do a better job of evalutating the weather conditions.
Hi All! It's almost that time again... and I can already feel my anxiety starting. I hope y'all can deal with me this year!
47. IKE
$5 gas near, 78% of Americans say
12:15pm: A vast majority of consumers expect to shell out $4 and even $5 a gallon this year, according to a recent poll. more
Oil prices surpass $120 a barrel.........from CNN.
50. IKE
I already drive less....I'm doing my part. Plus I drive a 99 Pontiac Sunfire with 223,000+ miles on it...no SUV or large vehicle for me...it only makes it worse.
Similarly, CMC forecasts&overdevelops TropicalCyclones out of darn near anything that could become a TropicalCyclone.

That seems to mostly apply for the Atlantic though, at least the last couple years (it forecast Nargis very well, as well as Typhoon Neoguri, as well as numerous other storms in the Indian Ocean/West Pacific):

44. Patrap 11:07 AM EST on May 05, 2008
We can moan about it. Or we can assemble an Action Team to get some clothing, MRES and other essential's shipped in.

I would be prepared to offer a sizable wager there is a boatload of this stuff en rout as we speak and people on the ground making bigger plans.

Lots of other options I am sure. Just have personal connections to this bunch (sister worked in front office) and know they are on the up and up with some of the highest ratings on donations vs overhead out there.
Does anyone out there have some satellite pictures of nargis as it was making landfall?
Does anyone out there have some satellite pictures of nargis as it was making landfall?

This was about an hour before landfall:

Thank you STL-storm looks lob sided,and alot of activity to the south.I wonder if all that convection to the south could have been pulled into the center if it had stayed over the water a little longer.
Looks like another wave coming off of Africa....
Its hard to believe the toll could had been so underestimated.
I still wonder exactly how strong Nargis was; for a comparison, here is Felix shortly before landfall (160 mph; the JTWC had Nargis' windfield similar in size to Felix at the time); the convection is quite a bit weaker (none of the bright yellows; more like Wilma at peak intensity) and the eye is not as clear or well-defined, almost perfect in Nargis (see the Wilma link):

Is the water in the Indian Ocean warmer or cooler than that of the carribean sea in respective storm seasons?
Good afternoon.
Have to feel sorrow at what happened in Burma.
Sounds like the final toll will be terrible.

Meantime, temps here are 94 f, and its pretty uncomfortable. Lots of smoke around, and no sign of relief.
Is the water in the Indian Ocean warmer or cooler than that of the carribean sea in respective storm seasons?

They are pretty similar from what I have seen, 29-30*C over most of the area. The Indian Ocean stays warmer year-round though, thus already is about as warm as the Caribbean in September (but doesn't get warmer, in fact, I think it cools a bit after the monsoon starts up, which also inhibits tropical cyclones until around November due to high shear).
"Its hard to believe the toll could had been so underestimated."

Even in an advanced society like here in the States it will take at least 48 hours to get a good estimate on numbers.

When you have a developing country that is also a closed, undemocratic society, you may never get good numbers. It'll probably take months of news trickling out before a good estimate of dead and injured can be surmised.
88. TexasGulf 3:01 AM GMT on May 03, 2008

A 15 ft storm surge and 12-15 ft waves in the Irrawaddy coastal floodplain can be devestating. The low elevation 0-10 ft above sea level and population of roughly 3-million people, simple housing construction and lack of proper storm warning to residents might lead to several thousand deaths, not hundreds.

Access into the Irrawaddy coastal areas is going to be very slow. There are only a few roads which will be mud pits after the storm. Access in/out will only be by boat for a while.
The first reports will come from Rangoon itself, but full impact won't be known for probably a few weeks.

It WAS predictable. Unfortunately, evacuating these low-lying areas is much easier said than done. In the end, people did what they could with what little information and resources they had.

Unfortunately, the starvation later this year is also predictable. May is the rice planting month in the Irrawaddy Delta region, where 40% of Burma's rice crop is grown. The salt-water flooded fields and loss of earthen dikes, not to mention loss of lives, homes and equipment, will make planting nearly impossible for the next few months in many of these otherwise fertile fields. Instead of a good rice harvest in October, the poor people if Southern Burma will have starvation and rationing. Considering world rice price increases this year, it only compounds the problem.

Source: (OCHA)

Date: 04 May 2008

Myanmar: Cyclone Nargis OCHA Situation Report No. 1 Link

9. UNICEF will deploy five assessment teams tomorrow (to Yangon, Pathein and Bago). The Myanmar Red Cross Society will send out five teams tomorrow (to Yangon, Ayeyarwady, Bago East, Bago West, Mon and Kayin). IFRC in Yangon was due to assess damage in the city today (4 May) and national volunteers are already gathering information.
11. The IASC partners are due to meet at 10:00 am tomorrow (5 May). A meeting with donors in country will take place directly afterwards.

12. The UNCT in Myanmar is examining the need for a Flash Appeal and for an application for CERF funds. The extent to which funds are required will become clearer as more detailed information on the cyclone’s impact becomes available.

13. The Regional IASC cluster leads will meet in Bangkok to discuss next steps. Telecoms Sans Frontiers is prepared to deploy from Bangkok.
My prayers go out to those in Myanmar. Too bad they didn't have the proper preparation necessary to prevent such a horrible tragedy.
reply 65 MichaelSTL

Yes I thought so. The Indian Ocean would seem warmer to me year round because doesn't the Indian Ocean have less cold water from the poles being recycled than the Pacific and Atlantic? And that ocean body (Indian) is surrounded on 3 sides by land. But I am trying to compare a large ocean to a smaller body of water like the Gulf of Mexico, so maybe the differences cancel themselves out somehow.

Thanks MichaelSTL, if you have any other discussions on the subject I'd love to hear them.
disasters of this magnitude are always so hard to comprehend. I hope the government over there will accept any help that is offered
I'm buying an electric car

Electric cars are not the most fuel efficient option these days. Depending on how your electricity is generated, electric cars can be more environmentally harmful than gasoline engines.

70% of the electricity in the U.S. is generated from burning coal, petroleum or natural gas.

20% of electricity in the U.S. is from Nuclear.

Only 10% is from other sources including renewable energy or non-polluting hydo-power.

Most boiler / steam turbine generator systems are about 85% efficient at converting coal/oil/gas available energy into electricity. From there, about 7% is lost in electricity transmission through the grid to your home. In the end, only about 80% efficiency is all that can be expected from burning fossil fuels at the power plant to you plugging the car into the socket. Then you have battery losses and automotive efficiency to contend with. About 10% loss can occur when transferring electrical energy back into mechanical energy to turn your drive shaft, making the car move.

An internal combustion engine is very efficient. It directly converts the energy from ignition and gas expansion in the cylinder to mechanical energy to move the car. If you compared all system losses, the gasoline or diesel engine is perhaps 20%-30% more fuel efficient than electrical (if your electricity comes from oil/coal/gas).

You're far better off to buy a hybrid car. Environmentally and for overall fuel savings, that is the best option available. If you are looking strictly at your pocket book, the electric vehicle would seem like the cheaper option. However it will cost you the same amount or more in electricity than the equivilant gas would have cost.

Have fun with your choices. ;>)
the war on global warming?
An internal combustion engine is very efficient.

That isn't true:

Engine Efficiency

Most steel engines have a thermodynamic limit of at most 37%. Even when aided with turbochargers and stock efficiency aids most engines retain an average efficiency of about 20%

Compare to:

Electrical Motor Efficiency

Electrical motors constructed according NEMA Design B must meet the efficiencies below:

(hp) Minimum Nominal Efficiency1)
1 - 4 78.8
5 - 9 84.0
10 - 19 85.5
20 - 49 88.5
50 - 99 90.2
100 - 124 91.7
> 125 92.4

So the conversion losses would have to be very high for an electrical car to have a lower efficiency. Of course, electricity isn't a real option for planes and ships.
The country is ruled by a military junta that does not like the full extent of disasters made known. Apparently they didn't issue warnings or, even it they did, a large percentage of the population probably didn't receive them in time. When Russia was known as the Soviet Union, natural disasters were often not reported at all or were greatly minimized by the state-controlled press. When the Chernobyl nuclear plant exloded the Soviet Union didn't even warn countries in Europe who would eventually by impacted by the radiation. It's a shame but that's the way it is.
Internal combustion engines are horribly inefficient. All that heat produced during the combustion is wasted.

The most efficient engine we have is ourselves. I ride my bike everday to the office. :D
80. help4u 6:38 PM GMT on Mayo 05, 2008
This war will not be won until capitalism is stopped.Capitalism=pollution.Change has to happen now.VOTE OBAMA!!

i dont think thats the solution,because if capitalism is stopped,then we will have the same system of government that rule my home country that is Cuba.i prefer this system,dont vote for Obama because we reaaly dont know what the word CHANGE means for him.
Postcyclone challenge for Burma (Myanmar): deliver relief fast Link

Phnom Penh, Cambodia - In a rapidly escalating death toll, a cyclone that ripped through Burma (Myanmar) on Saturday killed nearly 4,000 people, not 351 as originally announced, making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in Asia since the tsunami of 2004, authorities said on Monday.

But that death toll, which accounts for only two of five areas hit, could rise as high as 10,000 in coming days, government officials said, while relief agencies warned that rescue operations would be critically hampered by the remoteness of the disaster region, home to 24 million people.
That is the only way to win the war on global warming

We probably won't do anything, until civilization as we know it ends soon due to peak oil/coal/etc - that will obviously stop the problem, as well as cause the worst catastophe human civilization has ever seen in its history, read it and see just how sorry the progress towards renewables is compared to fossil fuels and what will happen when they run short; here is one factoid:

Update, January 2008: By end of last year, there was just over 5,000 megawatts of solar pv cells installed worldwide. Operating at average efficiency of 20%, the combined output of all the pv cells in the world is now equal to the output of a single coal fired power-planet.

China alone builds like one or two of them a week, I think...
Myanmar Cyclone Claims Thousands as UN Surveys Damage (Update6)
By Demian McLean Link
74. TexasGulf 6:18 PM GMT on May 05, 2008


Steam turbine generation is probably no more that 35% efficient. Main reason is the fact that once the steam goes through the turbine a whole lot of heat energy is lost. Not to mention the high maintanence needed to keep it functioning correctly.

Remember, efficiency in this case includes the energy lost up the stack heating the water to steam temperatures. Gas or oil power units do not fair much better with efficiencies around 50%.

The most efficient conversion of energy to heat is from natural gas with efficiencies approaching 90+%. At that is only applicable with water heaters like those found in your home and not those which generate steam for use in steam turbines. A study was done analysing the simple heating of a body of water in a home hot water tank from 32 degrees to 165 degrees F. They found that it took somewhere near 95000 btu to heat it with gas and over 455000 btu with eletricity. The reason given was the comparative inefficiency of the power plant and loss in the transmission lines as well. Keep in mind that this is not just about heat energy.

The best thing to do is remembering to include the resources consumed in the manufacturing as well as the delivery of product.

Update, January 2008: By end of last year, there was just over 5,000 megawatts of solar pv cells installed worldwide. Operating at average efficiency of 20%, the combined output of all the pv cells in the world is now equal to the output of a single coal fired power-planet.

..Must be some smog ridden Planet,..LOL
LOL... They obviously meant "power plant".
If Nargis pulled a hurricane Mitch type of stall/back and forth jog over warm water, we could have seen death tolls in the 20-30 thousands..

It has nothing to do with capitalism. Enviro sciences exist and profit in a captialistic economy. They fare much worse in any other economic idealogy.
Cyclone death toll nears 4,000 in Myanmar, state radio says

5 hours ago, AP Story:Link

In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, monks clear up roads damaged by cyclone in Yangon, Sunday, May 4, 2008. Residents of Myanmar's biggest city lit candles Monday, May 5, lined up to buy water and hacked their way through trees fallen in a cyclone that killed more than 350 people, destroyed thousands of homes and caused widespread power cuts. (AP Photo/Xinhua, Zhang Yunfei)

89. help4u 6:55 PM GMT on May 05, 2008

The point is to save the planet. As
long as we have capitalism that cannot happen. WE ONLY HAVE ABOUT 10 YEARS TO SAVE IT.We might be poor but we will be alive.Capitiliasm=burn up planet.That is why Obama is right on not cutting the gas tax.High prices will cut pollution.Put a 3.00 tax on gas now,watch what we use go down.The war on global warming will not be won without a change in how we live.

Perhaps you didn't know about the absolutely horrific pollution dumps that were generated in the USSR during its reign. Several documentaries were done demonstrating clearly that the government had little, if any, regard for the people nearby.

As bad as it is, capitolism beats whatever is in second by a mile. Whether it is pollution or other issue, capitolism has, built into it, the mechanism to rectify any problem that may arise. Whenever the people get tired of the crap, they can do something about it and that is not as easily done in other forms of government.
New wave off of Africa

89. help4u 6

without any ofensse,but i dont like your ideology,is this a weather blog or a economical/political blog??
new waves get sliced this time of year right?

In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, man and woman take their child to a hospital in Yangon, Sunday, May 4, 2008. Residents of Myanmar's biggest city lit candles Monday, May 5, lined up to buy water and hacked their way through trees felled in a cyclone.

A Myanmar Buddhist Monk makes his way past a fallen tree following a devastating cyclone, Sunday, May 4, 2008, in Yangon. The death toll from the cyclone has risen to almost 4,000, a Myanmar state radio station has said. The radio station broadcasting from the country's capital Naypyitaw said Monday that almost 3,000 more people are unaccounted for in a single town in the country's low-lying Irrawaddy River delta area. (AP Photo/Barry Broman)
historically, its like a 99.9 percent likelyhood to be sliced
don't worry about that guy yamil, he hasn't seen the slightest notion of anything other than capitalism and democracy. Anyone who complains about an economic idealogy that runs, maintains and tries to improve the entire world obviously doesn't have experience, educational and political background in the other forms of government.
my prayers go to those poor people of myanmar
102. DDR
Good day to all.
Pottery,it Looks we'll get some rain tomorrow.
almost 3,000 more people are unaccounted for in a single town -pat

I fear for those in rural areas. With the photos of detestation jut now making it out from developed areas you know it must be much worse.
Asia-Pacific Features
In photos: 'Burma Tropical Cyclone Nargis Damage'

By M&C News May 5, 2008, 15:19 GMT Link
89. help4u 1:55 PM CDT on May 05, 2008
AS long as we have capitalism that cannot happen.

You need to study government and world politics. "Capitalism" is allowing you to type in this blog with erroneous statements.

(ban, ignore list growing)
United Nations: UN stands ready to assist after deadly cyclone batters Myanmar

Thousands have reportedly been killed. In addition, %u201Cthe numbers in need of assistance are expected to be sizeable, OCHA said.

Buildings have been badly damaged throughout Yangon, and a significant number of people have been left without shelter. Electricity is unlikely to be restored for several days and water supplies are expected to be a major problem. Many roads remain impassable and the airport has been closed until further notice.

I suppose this sort of death toll was very possible, given the location of landfall, population (the most populated portion of Myanmar) and the terrain. But in anycase I certainly was not expecting this many people to die in the wake of this cyclone. Very tragic...

A disturbing story from the Countries notoriously Violent Yangon Prison.Link
well went to fix my post for rapid typing an I cant. sorry
109. CJ5
89. help4u 6:55 PM GMT on May 05, 2008

Ending capitalism will not end GW, capitalism will increase the chances changes will be made. Competition will drive results, socialism will not.

Try an edit and see if you get all kinds of garbage.
El nino? Sure looks like it may appear sooner rather then later.

This of course is the CFS model begining correct cause it could be wrong.

Here is a look at the lastest run.You can see upper level winds are forcasted to be on the increase over the gulf and most of the caribbean during the heart of the season.

HERE is something else i found rather interesting...

It seems there is a Java Error in the script for this page, Ill write tech support.
111. hurricane23 2:30 PM CDT on May 05, 2008

Not only that, the subsurface has continued to warm:

STL i may have to lower my numbers a bit from 12/7/3 if this keep up.The heart of the season atleast have of it maybe impacted.
There are so many variables talkin about the effect of storms. What if Andrew was 20miles north? Unfornately for the people in Burma it was not 20 miles north. Have a good day.
I frequently take a look at the POAMA forcasts and wanted to bring up the fact that the CFS actually does have some company.

Good news - I see La Nina/El Nino talk in this blog. Keep it up STL/23. Very interesting.
The CFS and POAMA means still look to be in the neutral range at least until November with the POAMA.

The model could be wrong but the chance is there for atleast the half of the meat of the season to be impacted.Windshear from the lastest run creates unfavorable conditions in parts of the gulf and the caribbean later in september/october time frame.A possible weak nino by mid to late summer.
Todays blog is sad news - so very sad --it is so strange to me that we all watched Nargis strike and we knew more about it then the people affected....and there was nothing any of us could do as far as warning these people --I felt so uncomfortable/helpless watching that 'cane come in. Even more uncomfortable was knowing that for the "masses" informing these people probably would not have made much of a difference --where would they go? Something seems wrong when we can watch safely from our little nests and in this day of modern communication we can do nothing to help others....
ENSO meter updated today:

This is the latest long range forecast from CPC through August...wouldn't an El Nino event cause drier conditions in Florida and wetter conditions in the northwest? Forgive me if im incorrect, I'm still learning about the ENSO myself.

Regarding the forecasts, it is also important to note that we are reaching the end of the "spring barrier", where models have a hard time forecasting what ENSO state will occur later in the year (notice how they are coming into better agreement).

Early signs of a developing El Nino pattern can appear as early as late fall a year before a mature El Nino pattern sets in. But just because these signals appear, it does not always mean an El Nino will follow. The period from March to April during the year El Nino is forecast can make or break the forecast. It is not fully understood what physical processes take place during the seasonal transition, also known as the "Spring Barrier". But during this time, early signals of El Nino can disappear, to be replaced by a neutral to slightly La Nina like pattern. But if the signs persist through the Spring Barrier, the odds of a full scale El Nino developing go up significantly.

TN, it's my understanding is that Nina, not Nino, is what causes drier conditions in the mid-west and southeast.
122. TerraNova 8:08 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
This is the latest long range forecast from CPC through August...wouldn't an El Nino event cause drier conditions in Florida? Forgive me if im incorrect, I'm still learning about the ENSO myself.

El Nino= Wet southeast.
This is the latest long range forecast from CPC through August...wouldn't an El Nino event cause drier conditions in Florida? Forgive me if im incorrect, I'm still learning about the ENSO myself.

Well, right now they aren't forecasting one yet; the latest weekly update said that neutral conditions were likely in that period. Also, there is usually a lag between the SSTs and the atmosphere; in other words, the atmosphere is still in a La Nina-like state right now and will continue for several more months.
Lets hope its rainy may for south florida lol.SEE WHY

Jim put out this article a few years back.
Right, I must have been looking at the wrong map then. Thanks MLC and Drak.

January through March:

El Nino= Wet southeast

I think that is mainly for the winter though, I remember drought in 2006 being attributed to a La Nina during the winter of 2005-2006 and El Nino during the summer and fall (El Nino causes less tropical activity which is a significant source of the Southeast's rainfall).
Thats a good graphic to explain it Terra.
El Nino effects during summer in the Northern Hemisphere:

128. hurricane23 8:15 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
Lets hope its rainy may for south florida lol.SEE WHY

Jim put out this article a few years back.

Interesting read.
135. 786
Hey all,

It seems this season may have a slooooow start. As far as the ENSO is concerned, are we not placing too much emphasis on whether or not it can predict our upcoming hurricane season??? considering that 2004/2005 were two bad hurricane years and were both in El-Nino stages?
Could just be so!...I keep checking on things, and the way the NAO forecast is panning out, I would almost expect very close calls, if not a hit to FL, and a good increase for the East coast.

As in landfall potential? Wouldn't El Nino decrease the probability of US landfalls, or am I getting something mixed up?

Afternoon, by the way!
GFS is forcasting nothing but dry weather through next week for south florida with dew points climbing into the lower to mid 70's.
It's official. Sorry folks.

With a climate shift back to the PDO cool phase, an ensuing Nino may be short-lived if indeed it does arrive. Of course, it's my hope that we move to Nino and have less tropical activity, since tropical activity is more apparent in neutral conditions. This is an interesting chart and new article, The Relationship of the PDO to El Nino and La Nina Frequency, by Aleo. My personal conclusions after reading it, is that it helps to refute AGW and indicates that we may be in for some years with more active tropical activity as the PDO shifts to cold mode with less Nino spikes and possibly more neutral episodes. (Notice the huge downward drop from a nino spike to neutral in 2005).


The PDO appears to have changed back to the cold mode in 1998 following the Super El Nino of 1997/98. Three straight years of La Nina followed. PDO bounced some during the early 2000s but this year dropped off dramatically again this past year as a strong La Nina developed. Since it is 30 years since the last climate shift, it appears likely this negative mode should continue.

(from the article's text):
If this regime change has indeed taken place, this would mean there would be more, stronger La Ninas and fewer, mainly weaker El Ninos in the next few decades. This would imply a cooling of global temperatures much as we saw in the last cool negative PDO phase from 1947 to 1977. Temperatures have not warmed since 1998 globally.

Notice also the lack of correlation of CO2 with the global temperatures (satellite derived lower tropospheric temperatures and Hadley land and ocean temperatures) the last decade. Even the head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri noted this disconnect with carbon dioxide and suggested that we needed to see if some natural factors were offsetting greenhouse warming.

-- This was quite an interesting read and I look forward to reading how it integrates the AMO.
$120.03 bl price!!!!!!! Good gosh, Aqua! Here we go, folks!
considering that 2004/2005 were two bad hurricane years and were both in El-Nino stages?

2005 was more La Nina; the CPC also attributed the activity to a persistant La Nina like circulation in the Pacific (a La Nina actually did develop by the winter as well). The year did start with an El Nino, but it was long gone by hurricane season. As for 2004, it was relatively weak and the greatest positive anomalies were over a relatively small area in the central Pacific. See the chart on the right side:

135. 786 8:36 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
Hey all,

It seems this season may have a slooooow start. As far as the ENSO is concerned, are we not placing too much emphasis on whether or not it can predict our upcoming hurricane season??? considering that 2004/2005 were two bad hurricane years and were both in El-Nino stages?

You must be mistaking, 2004 was indeed a season under El Nino conditions but 2005 was under Neutral conditions.
143. 786

GROUP Forecast Start Date 2-4 MONTHS 5-7MONTHS
(Jun to Aug)(Sep to Nov

POAMA 30 March - 28 April
(run at Bureau of Met) Neutral Neutral
System 3
ECMWF 01 April Neutral Neutral #
UK Met Office 01 April Neutral Not Available
NCEP 18 - 27 April Neutral Neutral
GMAO/NASA April Neutral Neutral
Japan Met. Agency February Neutral Neutral #
My personal conclusions after reading it, is that it helps to refute AGW

Really... Not surprising for a denialist...

Here is the real data:

(notice espcially the overall rise, each peak and trough is higher than the last, AGW also doesn't say that there aren't natural climate cycles, and to think otherwise shows even more how much of a denialist you are)
134. StormW 8:34 PM GMT on May 05, 2008 Hide this comment.
133. Drakoen 4:23 PM EDT on May 05, 2008
128. hurricane23 8:15 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
Lets hope its rainy may for south florida lol.SEE WHY

Jim put out this article a few years back.

Interesting read.

Could just be so!...I keep checking on things, and the way the NAO forecast is panning out, I would almost expect very close calls, if not a hit to FL, and a good increase for the East coast.

Be back later.

Yea. The Ensemble means show negative NAO values into mid-May.
BBC World News ,Nargis Video Link
Oh god. HOLY ****
OVER 4,000 DEAD!
Also, here is a good take on just what is happening:

183. streamtracker 3:38 PM CDT on May 05, 2008

what about this paper that said regardless of CO2 the warming will happen due to internal variability?

I just downloaded and read the paper. That's not what the paper says Cruci.

Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.

The paper says that internal variability will create some downward pressure (partially offset) on AGW. But AGW will still create warming, but less then it would without changes in NOA.

There is nothing in paper about warming occurring without forcing by C02.

Basically the same thing as reported in the Nature paper I cited above.

The natural variability is superimposed on the upward trend in temperatures due to anthropogenic forcings. The natural variability imposes valleys and peaks on the upward trend, but the overall trend is driven by AGW.

If I recall correctly, that isn't the only paper (see Ricky's blog, it is the one that has been hyped by denialists as "global cooling" in the next decade) that has forecast such a scenario; less warming now but accelerated afterwards.
some people are saying 10,000 people... =/

though this is unofficial from another tropical weather website forum.
150. 786
Thanks caneaddict and STL those are various models I posted, all of which forecast neutral conditions until the end of November
found the CNN report

MODIS RAPID Response Subset Hi-Rez image of NARGIS Link
STL, I'm not gonna get in a pissing contest with you and won't resort to name-calling like you have. I respect your opinion, but that's where I leave and don't contest you here. I prefer to show character and maturity. You're entitled opinions and so am I. It's interesting that D'Aleo article doesn't reflect the notions of anthropogenics and suggests that natural variability is more likely the cause. I'm not making that up, but just reading and repeating it. Why don't you state your facts and leave the immature name-calling out. Post and let people discern for themselves.
154. 786

ReliefWEB Update page Link

Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis - May 2008 Link
Burma cyclone aerial footage

BBC News, current
Flood Assessment for Cyclone Affected Laputto & Bagale Townships, Myanmar (as of 05 May 2008)

The last Posts Map here.. Track and Flooding from NARGIS Link

UNOSAT, four Maps of the area Link
159. 786
If that article by Jim is true then we are in for a rough season cause we have NOT received a drop of rain in Grand Cayman this month, hardly any in April and this spells drier than normal conditions here - I am looking forward to some rain.
Myanmar: Multilateral contribution, 05 May 2008

Rome, May 5, 2008- "The Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Directorate General for Cooperation and Development has contributed with a financial amount of 123.000 euros to IFRC in response to urgent humanitarian assistance for the population of Myanmar facing the emergency after "Cyclone Nargis", following the International Federation of Red Cross operation named Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone – DREF operation n. TC-2008-000057-MMR 5 May 2008’.

The donation will cover needs identified by IFRC."

POC: Alessandro Pirrone - MoFA Rome - Emergency Office on +39 3691 815
161. 786
Interesting prediction from another blog

"The summer of 2008 will likely see the end of La Nina and the neutral pattern starting. That means, that the summer of 2008 will probably be much different than the past 3 years.

Most of the U.S., will be warmer than normal, but not as much as the record setting summers of 2005 through 2007. At Dulles Airport in northern Virginia, the last 3 summers are among the hottest 10 on record.

2008 will likely have lots of tropical rains, and will be very humid, and warm, but only slightly above normal.

Hurricane activity this year may also help end the drought, as hurricanes affect the Gulf and East Coasts. With a neutral pattern, I don't expect that the hurricane season will be as bad as 2004 and 2005, and will probably not have as many named storms as in 2007. However, there should be more landfalling hurricanes and there may be many more for the East Coast.

I would say if you are an Easterner, it will be the winter of 2008-2009 that will be quite severe and lots of snow and ice, and that includes south of New England. For the Mid Atlantic, it may be the worst winter since 2002-3 with snow and cold. The West should have a mild winter next year.

The best chance that we have for a bad winter seems to be when we are in the neutral pattern.

So, the good news about 2008 will be an end to the terrible drought situation over most of the U.S. I believe it has been caused by La Nina and not by global warming.

Look for March to be the worst month of winter in the East this year and look for the East's turn to come with a bad winter next year.

La Nina always has some interesting twists and turns. It has been 9 years since we have had one this strong. "
Nargis Track and Areas affected Link

Thanks for ReliefWeb link
Moonlight, Just use the very useful "Ignore" button!
Wow just looked at some more models and can you say summer in full affect?Temperatures could reach the mid 90's this weekend across south florida with very low precip chances for rainfall through the week.
Ahhhh the thought of rain...my backyard looks like the dust bowl presently - 1.5 miles from the GOMEX SWFL, East of I75 pastures are dry, water holes are way low ---people want to seed their pastures and they can't ...no rain. Horses don't get skin fungus, hoof thrush when it's dry, but the pastures don't replenish - and then there's worrying about fire..... Abit of rain would make my day and get me off of work
165. CaneAddict 4:25 PM CDT on May 05, 2008
Moonlight, Just use the very useful "Ignore" button!

Bad idea to post that... LOL
Thanks storm! That will definitely be useful when I make my perdictions in June.
Most farmers and those who follow the weather, see a two week earlier arrival of seasonal summer the last 5-8years. A pattern reflected in the avg late spring early summer actual temps trend.

Its getting Hotter earlier each year..
Sunny hello to you StormW!
TerraNova here is another very useful link thats been good to me.

Atlantic Hurricane based on ENSO Phase
No, Caneaddict. I like STL. He's very knowledgeable of the weather and the tropics and posts some great information. He's alright, really. He just tends to wear AGW on his sleeve and gets very defensive about it, sometimes forgetting his manners. But, that's okay, we all have our hang-ups and make mistakes.
When was the last cyclone that killed 4,000 people
wasn't Bangladesh that was 3,000
Also Kadena the accidental Typhoon posting wasn't actually Typhoon Kadena but Typhoon Bart of 1999 that hit Kadena Air force center I couldn't find a typhoon that hit Misawa that year maybe one of you could find a storm that took a similar track?
Well, my ancient mango tree doesn't discuss GW w/anyone, so I have to say that it goes into it's summer stage earlier now then it did when I first came to this house (a long time ago) Tree can't be influence by me......must be the temps.
I had to screen cap this because it's adobe flash player on the CNN website. Damage in Yangon, Myanmar:

(CNN/Associated Press)

original NASA data from 1999:

NASA data "reworked" in 2007 showing "mysterious" upward trend that wasn't there in 1999:

Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler?
Got to feed menfolk bbl
I saw the Picture on the top in The Washington Post
When was the last cyclone deadlier than this one
Afternoon all

From that CNN article TN posted a link to...

the United States made $250,000 available

Are you serious, most politicians second homes are worth twice that much...

and this...
The official, who asked not to be named, said it is "too early to get a scale of the assessment so far. ... We don't know exactly what is needed."

Assessment? Again, are you serious...Forget assessing...What is needed is to get in to the regions and provide help. Don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure that one out. Planning is pre storm. Actions are post storm, right pat?...Same ol same ol whether here or abroad.

U.S. first lady Laura Bush, who has a long-standing interest in Myanmar, urged the government to allow the team into the country, saying she expected Washington would provide "substantial" aid if it could conduct its own assessment of the situation on the ground.

And she blasted the junta, saying the lack of warning before a deadly cyclone hit on Friday was the latest example of "the junta's failure to meet its people's basic needs."

More garbage and excuses on both sides. Yea Laura, we did an excellent job of evacuating NO right? And didn't the master dyke builders; the dutch, want to come help us and we pretty much blew them off.

And this...
The United States has sanctions in place against Myanmar, whose government is holding Nobel Peace Prize-winning democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. Casey said the sanctions might restrict what type of donations the United States can make, but will not prevent Washington from sending some type of assistance via the United Nations.

Not that the sanctions are not warranted, but again it is more political BS getting in the way of true problem solving. Do our politicians know anything about 8d problem solving, Six Sigma, or Continuous Improvement.

Sorry for the venting y'all...It is just so damn frustrating!
When was the last cyclone deadlier than this one

174. moonlightcowboy 9:37 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
No, Caneaddict. I like STL. He's very knowledgeable of the weather and the tropics and posts some great information. He's alright, really. He just tends to wear AGW on his sleeve and gets very defensive about it, sometimes forgetting his manners. But, that's okay, we all have our hang-ups and make mistakes.

I can agree with every bit of that, MLC. StL always has good points.

Per chance, if you really want to see someone get their panties in a wad, go to the climate change blog and and dispute anything SteveBloom has ever said. You can actually hear a whining noise while reading his posts. In his posts, you can tell that he wants to tell you to come back after finishing middle school, but he fails to use any more restraint than that. Very immature...not young...just immature.
187. 786
Hurricane Alley Atlantic Tropical Systems Study – 2007


The study findings include the following :

1. There are 14 seasons that could be classified as “absolute” when using the premise that all 4 of the indices classified the year the same

2. There are 11 seasons which overlap at least 3 levels …. eg Strong Cold to Weak Cold or Weak Cold to Weak Warm etc.

3. There are 10 seasons that are evenly split between 2 of the levels

4. The most active seasons in terms of storm number numbers and percentage of named storms achieving hurricane and major hurricane status are those with a neutral with cold bias (see TABLE 1)

5. The years with the smallest percentage of hurricanes becoming major are those classified as neutral with a warm bias (see TABLE 1)

6. The years with the lowest number of storms on average are those classified as warm (see TABLE 1)

7. The years with the highest number of storms on average are those classified as neutral with a cold bias (see TABLE 1)

8. The years with the most landfalls by tropical systems are those that are considered neutral (see TABLE 2)

9. The years with the least landfalls by tropical systems are those that are considered strongly warm (see TABLE 2)

10. The years with the greatest percentage of landfalls that are hurricanes are those ranked as moderately cold (see TABLE 2)

11. The years with the greatest percentage of landfalls that are major hurricanes are those ranked as neutral (see TABLE 2)

Are we in a cold or warm bias?? anyone?
186. You can actually hear a whining noise while reading his posts.

187. 786 9:50 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
Hurricane Alley Atlantic Tropical Systems Study – 2007


Could you give us a link to that study, please? I would like to read on.
Atmoaggie, you're such a heretic, er, denialist, er non-believer! :)
Sorry for the venting y'all...It is just so damn frustrating!

LOL! Afternoon, SJ!
You made me smile TN; but it was not intended to make you lol, but I guess if it did not make you lol, then it would make you pull your hair out :~)
Myanmar: International aid groups ready but waiting

By Solomon Link

Eight hundred tons of rice are sitting in a Rangoon warehouse, but can't be distributed to survivors of the deadly cyclone that ravaged Burma until the military government gives permission, an aid official said Monday.
Myanmar: International aid groups ready but waiting

Great, now pat throws insult on top of injury.
atmoaggie CLICK HERE
Are we in a cold or warm bias?? anyone?

Warm bias (referring to ENSO) - La Nina has weakened to neutral and warming has continued (2005 was neutral with a cold bias; El Nino early in the year to La Nina at the end/early 2006). So, if this continues, we likely won't have that many major hurricanes this year:

5. The years with the smallest percentage of hurricanes becoming major are those classified as neutral with a warm bias (see TABLE 1)

Then, the same can be said for the last couple years, it seems to be part of a longer trend/cycle, the CFS is forecasting higher shear in the same places that 2006 and 2007 had it, since those were opposite ENSO years, I don't see how a neutral season (assuming El Nino doesn't develop) would be much different. Steering patterns may be more important this year; for example, 1985 had marginally more activity than 2006 - but 6 hurricanes and 8 out of 11 total storms made landfall on the U.S.
187. 786 4:50 PM CDT on May 05, 2008
Are we in a cold or warm bias?? anyone?

786, nice and interesting post. It's my opinion that we've been under a warm bias, and that's what we're seeing now is a shift in bias to a cool phase of the PDO at least. I'm no met, I just read and discern. I could be totally wrong. Afterall, this is just a blog, right?

You may want to read this article, "The Relationship of the PDO to El Nino and La Nina Frequency." It might help you answer your own question.
Myanmar: Junta called 'inhuman' for planning poll in wake of disaster

By Mungpi Link

New Delhi %u2013 Critics blasted Burma's military regime for going ahead with plans to conduct a referendum on the country's draft constitution amidst the devastation and mourning of Cyclone Nargis.

"It is senseless to conduct a referendum while people are filled with sorrow and worries," said Nyo Ohn Myint, the foreign affairs in-charge of the exiled National League for Democracy (Liberated Area).

Tropical cyclone Hit Yangon, Myanmar in the Morning of May 4, result of damaging thousands of homes and blocks streets
201. 786
Cyclone plunges Myanmar into primitive existence

Older citizens said they had never seen Yangon, a city of some 6.5 million, so devastated in their lifetimes. Link
204. 786
STL, Moonlight thx for your responses, lets see how it pans out this year knowing what the study has to say. This year I think will be neutral then with a warm bias.

So it seems thus far that transitioning from EL Nino to La Nina is more favourable for tropical cyclone strenthening than transitioning from La Nina to El Nino
Myanmar: Junta called 'inhuman' for planning poll in wake of disaster

Anything to maintain the status quo...It is done with lot more finesse over here, but basically the same end result.
207. 786
ok am finally getting out of work, bbl
204. 786 5:08 PM CDT on May 05, 2008
So it seems thus far that transitioning from EL Nino to La Nina is more favourable for tropical cyclone strenthening than transitioning from La Nina to El Nino

786, that's an interesting question, too, and I've a similar assumption. There was some discussion of that very thing last night. And, though I could be quite wrong, my guess is that there is more energy released going from Nino to neutral to Nina conditions. I'm not sure if past activity reflects that, but I think that's what your previous post was leaning to, right? Good observations and thanks for pointing that out!
99. What a horrible group of "leaders" they have there.

I'm not sure we're in much better shape if another Katrina shows up...
PearlAndAggie: In 2000, the GISTEMP analysis switched from one source of US data to a different source. It was believed at the time that these two sources were equivalent; however, there was a slight (0.15) degree difference between the datasets, and an offset had to be coded into the comparison.

Note that this is *US* temperature means, not global. The US hasn't been warming much, while the globe has warmed greatly.
212. 786
moonlight, yes exactly what I was saying, thx
204. 786 10:08 PM GMT on May 05, 2008
STL, Moonlight thx for your responses, lets see how it pans out this year knowing what the study has to say. This year I think will be neutral then with a warm bias.

So it seems thus far that transitioning from EL Nino to La Nina is more favourable for tropical cyclone strenthening than transitioning from La Nina to El Nino

Either way i look at it, It's Neutral.
P&A, I almost made the same comment. I mean we had water trucks sitting outside of NO for several days afterwards, and they were not "allowed" in...
Some of the biggest problems created by warming are going to be coming from the permafrost areas. That is a whole crap load of methane stored up (sorry for the pun). Should too much of these areas melt then it could just snowball the whole thing.
211. Then if there was a difference even though they were "believed" to be the same, what was the justification for using the current set over the former one?

214. I don't live in NOLA...whom did not "allow" these trucks in?

certainly the upward trend in the temperature record couldn't be affected by things like:

"This station in New England, ND COOP ID# 326315 must be one of those “maintenance optional” USHCN stations. All the photos and report aren’t in, and I don’t have time for a complete analysis, since I’m leaving for my trip, but this seemed like a good parting shot."

or this one:

"In her survey, volunteer surveyor Julie K. Stacy noted the proximity to the building and parking, which will certainly affect Tmin at night due to IR radiance. Daytime Tmax is likely affected by the large amount of asphalt and concrete in the area around the sensor. The main street of the town (28 ft from US 183) and the ACE Hardware parking lot are visible in this photo below"

or this one:

"What is interesting about this station, is that it is a rooftop station, like we’ve seen in San Francisco, Eureka, and many other US cities. Rooftop stations are suspected to impart a warm bias to the surface temperature records, for obvious reasons."

The poor siting and maintenance of NOAA temperature stations certainly has to have an effect on the data collected.
Damn good question P&A, but I am 99% sure I am correct on this. And actually that is part of the point. The who gets switched around, covered up, disguised, overshadowed by other press, etc.

I must admit I am having a disgruntled Cinco. Sorry, but again it is just so damn frustrating.

A convoy of Wal-Mart trucks carrying supplies for victims of Hurricane Katrina waits to enter New Orleans three days after the storm hit.

From this article

Wal Mart had their stuff together before the storm even hit...
StormJunkie...from the article...

"The study says Wal-Mart, Home Depot and Lowe's made use of their local knowledge about supply chains, infrastructure, decision makers and other resources to provide emergency supplies and reopen stores well before FEMA began its response."

of course, this is not proof of the efficacy of free-market solutions to problems when compared to government bureaucracy...afterall, taxes on energy and food will fix AGW!
returning to Myanmar- Counts possibly up to 10,000.

See post #9, Rainman32's blog Link
of course, this is not proof of the efficacy of free-market solutions to problems when compared to government bureaucracy...afterall, taxes on energy and food will fix AGW!

I am not exactly sure how to take that please clarify, my frustration has gotten the best of me today...

My point was that these trucks were in that line within 24-36 hours after the storm,if not sooner, and yet 72 hours later they were still in that line.
When Wal-Mart sent three trailer trucks loaded with water, FEMA officials turned them away, he said. Agency workers prevented the Coast Guard from delivering 1,000 gallons of diesel fuel, and on Saturday they cut the parish's emergency communications line, leading the sheriff to restore it and post armed guards to protect it from FEMA, Mr. Broussard said.

From this article...
StormJunkie...sarcasm, my friend, sarcasm...that's how you should interpret that statement :)

222. pearlandaggie 6:44 PM EDT on May 05, 2008

Not as much a endorsement for market response as local knowledge and less hubris. Lots of NGOs beat FEMA to punch. Still there slugging away building houses etc while FEMA still can't figure out how to do squat. Haven't seen WALmart and Lows giving out supplies or labor lately. (I'm confident their PR departments would make sure Networks Had their cameras there if they were. LOL)
227. fair enough. i just thought that line in the article really underscored the whole FEMA debacle...
227. however, in response, does it really matter what the rationale behind doing a good deed is so long as the good deed is done? to some extent, the marketing departments acting to make the companies look good is a tacit recognition of the fact that those companies are beholden to the consumers they were sending the supplies to, motivation aside. people needed supplies and the private sector was able to respond much quicker than government.

that's the only point i was trying to make :)
on another note, it was there (solar cycle 24 sunspot):

and now it's not:

the sun sure seems in no hurry to transition to SC24...
Good point P & A. Here is my question. Is Wal Mart really a bigger corporation then the Govt? I think not. Would Wal Mart go out of business if it operated with anywhere near the efficiency of the Govt? Hell yes!

The point is we have no accountability. It is all about status quo...

Desperate Burmese queue for water in Rangoon

Fight to aid cyclone victims frustrated by junta
By Graeme Jenkins in Rangoon
Last Updated: 11:20PM BST 05/05/2008 Link
SJ, "responsibility" and "accountability" haven't existed in government for some time now (neither side of the aisle). They barely fit in the same sentence together, except in a negative connotation.
Myanmar Junta blamed for not warning people in time:

Article (link)

I hear you mlc. The sad thing is the grip may be so tight that there is no way to change the downward spiral...

To steal from Auburn...

I by nature am an optimist...but ummmm if all of us dont get our heads out of our buts and start to get involved in standing up for ourselves things are gonna get bad quick...and there ain't nothing your favorite Candidate can do about it...its up to you and me to send a message...and I am not talking writing a letter to you local rep either...I am talkin 60-70 type protest...if you can get away from American Idol long enough that is...lol
Amen, StormJunkie...preachin' to the choir!

"They barely fit in the same sentence together, except in a negative connotation."

NOW that's too funny :)
Good evening all! When I read Dr. Master's updated blog this afternoon, it left me with one expression. Utter shock and disbelief with my jaws wide open. I could never even fathom a similar catastrophe occuring here in the states (although we had one similar, but to a lesser extent in Katrina). All I have to say is that my prayers go out to them and I wish them good luck in their recovery efforts. Their government should be impeached for not caring for the safety of their citizens and refusing United States aid.

Now, onto more personal stuff. This morning, I took my Trigonometry/Pre-Calculus and CHM1041 finals. Everything went according to plan in Trigonometry as I kept my "B", but I left very disappointed in CHM1041 as I saw my 83 fall into the upper 70's (otherwise my grade dropped from an 83 to a 77) after I received a 72 on the final exam. It was worth 50% of the grade in the course and I just got nervous during the exam and tightened up.

Before I end, just wanted to gather your impressions and/or opinions on the disturbed weather along and off the West African coast. Appears another tropical wave may be attempting to form.

If I'm not able to comment further this evening, have a good evening and God bless.
Myanmar Junta blamed for not warning people in time:

Think Nagin/Blanco...The similarities are uncanny
Those that cannot learn from history...
SJ I think Mother Nature the baddest pyrate around....

So incredibly sad.
243. HouseofGryffindor 11:18 PM GMT on May 05, 2008

God help us if Miami or Tampa or Houston are in the sights of another Katrina...at least the Houston metro drains, albeit slowly! (...looking for the silver lining...)
Pearland - I think you live
near me - and we drain very very
slowly....look at today's weather
one good gullywasher and we can
barely handle it...
The area of the West African coast is not a tropical wave. The area is primarily associated with the surface convergence and upper level divergence with the upper level diffluent flow aloft within the ITCZ. The area lacks potential vorticity and relative vorticity which sign African easterly waves.
I have to say that the Pearland area drains quite well considering it has the topography of a dining room table. Last summer with all the record rainfall, we never even got water in our backyard despite the fact that a drainage culvert runs right behind our property.
Evening Emmy :~)

And while all those cities would be horrid disasters, NY would have to top the list of worst places for a major cane to strike.
Pearland your very lucky then!

SJ - pick another city my son is headed to NY

Okay back to your wonderful discussions on here.
No argument here, StormJunkie. I forgot to include NYC!
If one stays for a a significant Hurricane , a Major that is..a Cat-3 Large Scale or Higher as I refer to them..be Prepared to

Run from the Water.

And Hide from the Wind.

National Hurricane Preparedness Week
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st. Link
slightly off-topic, but does anyone know how to modify one's username after it's been set? i realized some wisely-implemented capitalization would help, but i can't find out how to get it done...
Not sure you can do that P&A...lol Now that I realize that is incorrect. Try WU mailing blog admin. They may be able to work it our for you if you ask real nice.

Evening Taz, good to see ya
Pat, I'm so glad you keep emphasizing "preparedness!" I just don't think it gets enough time and emphasis. Under the best circumstances these things are awfully tragic.

It's may 5th and season is upon us - if you haven't taken the time to put a plan together, please start. Have a plan "B" even. So much pain and grief can be avoided by having a plan. Talk with your neighbors, ask the elderly, offer help if you can.

Visit Patrap's blog on Hurricane Preparedness. It's well worth the read and a great way to get your plan going.
Never seen anyone able to change their username without creating a new account..
hi . StormJunkie
atmoaggie CLICK HERE

Thanks 23 and 786. But I was really interested in the referenced data and tables, but it is only available with a subscription, alas.

No: 1 (JK, not that much of an egotist)

P. S. Hey SJ. Maybe we should call pearlandaggie "Oyster-generated" for a nic ;-)
Time is the issue always. When the winds die down, and the water recedes,the overwhelming impact sets in fast.
No water,..no food,..no electricity become a reality real fast.
Many,especially the elderly and very young dont survive many days,without ice,food..or proper care.

No services can be expected for days.

With Gas and other Higher cost coming into play. Plan NOW to evacuate to avoid the rush . If a threat develops and you feel the urge to leave. Leave.

Best to be safe in Memphis..than stuck in 100plus heat in a Mad dash.

One has to plan.
To be ready.
Calamity will come.
Where and When is Known but to God.
Pat, that should read: "Best to be safe in Memphis eating top flight BBQ..than stuck in 100plus heat in a Mad dash. "
255. StormJunkie 7:40 PM EDT on May 05, 2008 Try WU mailing blog admin. They may be able to work it our for you if you ask real nice.

Try starting with the "need help" link in LH side bar. If you keep on following it you can finally get to a human being. WUadmin seems to have their knickers in a twist over something. Last question I asked got the use need help link reply in a rather abrupt response. Perhaps they are bulking up on steroids in preparation for the "Seasonal Troll Wars".
Time is the issue always. When the winds die down, and the water recedes,the overwhelming impact sets in fast.
No water,..no food,..no electricity become a reality real fast.

Creating a neigborhood plan is great as well so you know what supplies each other have and who is willing to do what.
Exactly atmo...and Big Gulps of JD and 7 when I finally got up there Sept 16th 2005.
Good Bourbon there in Memphis for sure too.
lmao SVFF, and great to see ya.

Yea, I must admit I had a minor incident as well...lol
Patrap, the picture of that kind of BS still gets my blood boiling!!! Notice the opposite side of the freeway...it's lack of traffic and USE AS AN EVACUATION ROUTE! TxDOT took SO LONG to get contraflow going that it was obvious they were caught with their pants down. If anyone thinks government will come and save them when a disaster hits, all they have to do is look at that picture!

/sorry for the rant
Contraflow was finally enacted correctly in Texas after the Rita experience. Its a Major Link and a Must in any States evacuation Scenarios
262. ShenValleyFlyFish

LMAO! "Seasonal Troll Wars"!!! priceless!
Myanmar/Burma situation is wretched and we will likely hear worse news soon. I have worked in disaster relief (Liberia under Taylor's NPFL '92-93) Sat through numerous meetings with NGOs including WFP, Chal, ICRC and local officials. Interesting that the UN was at that time and place "non grata".
The Junta in Burma will now be fighting for it's very existence which does not bode well for any incoming aid. I don't rely on prayers but add my best hopes for the people affected.
The highest fatality number I see so far is up to 14,000. We may never know any realistic count but such upgrades so soon are a bad signal
If you aren't a paid subscriber just stop posting using one you have and open a new one. I personally don't much approve, unless you are keeping active blogs on more than one theme, but a number of folks operate under more than one handle.
One must know the Local Contraflow Options for your area.


Texas Link
just stop posting using one you have and open a new one

But you will need to upload that very nice portrait again, oyster-generated aggie.
Thanks, Patrap! I've seen that before as I work in Freeport and we have an extensive hurricane preparedness plan, one item of which is a yearly review of material like that.
Hi back SJ

Sometimes it helps to run naked in the forest and Howl at the Moon.
LOL, atmoaggie! believe me, that was NOT the least of my considerations! :)
I was shocked to see that Louisiana had plan "contraflow" and the Texas didn't. It was a complete surprise to some of us here in the New Orleans area that Texas hadn't plan for that. Hopefully every state learned a valuable lesson from that awfull mess.
tillou, only time will tell. Everyone was taking I-10 and I-45 out of town, but we decided to use US59. US59 ran at about 65-70 mph all the way to Corrigan. The traffic backed up about 10 miles south of Corrigan and it took us 3.5 hrs to go 10 miles. The reason: the four-way stoplight in the middle of this little dungheap of a town was still operating despite the fact that traffic was only northbound through town (away from the GOM)....and, not a state trooper, sheriff's deputy, or local cop to help direct traffic. Of course, afterwards when there was no danger, there were state troopers everywhere slowing down the return to the city!

I'm not bashing the police, just underscoring the lack of government preparedness on all levels.
Updated Anomaly map as of may 3 continues to show a rather cool central atlantic and areas surrounding florida.Eastern atlantic continues to be the warm spot.

27 days till Hurricane season
Sometimes it helps to run naked in the forest and Howl at the Moon

LMAO. Sounds like good therapy. Gotta try that.
atmoaggie...sounds like you never went to CUT! :)

CUT??? See UT? At a loss with this one.

BTW, I did get to go to muster this year in Covington, LA (home, now)
280. extreme236 8:20 PM EDT on May 05, 2008
27 days till Hurricane season

You may have to double that if we get of to a slow start which in my opinion is a good possibility.
This map show that SSTs are beginning to warm up, in the MDR... (and are spreading northwards, to 20N; especially near the Eastern Caribbean)...

atmoaggie, somehow CTU didn't seem right :)

on a more serious note, i didn't make it to muster this year (father was having surgery), but i'm sure glad you did. i'd bet it was very poignant this year again with the war in Iraq ongoing...
I don't foresee anything forming in early June with the current SSTs, unless it were in the southern GOM or in the Caribbean, possibly the east coast. I think maybe later in June the first one should pop up.
isn't it weird how the blog activity at times just goes to zero?
Like right now lol
Mississippi's Evacuation Plan

Alabama's Evacuation Plan - BALDWIN and MOBILE

Florida's Evacuation Plan

Florida and Alabama transportation officials are working on two four-lane connections to I-65 to help with hurricane evacuation. Work on one leg anticipated to be complete by this October. Full story here at Hurricane evacuation route expanding.
284. atmoaggie 7:24 PM CDT on May 05, 2008
BTW, I did get to go to muster this year in Covington, LA (home, now)

I really like Covington. Visited a Farmer's Market there one weekend. I was introduced to "Mayhaw" jelly - now, my favorite and keep it stocked.
I'd say June 12-17 sounds like a good bet for the first storm. Maybe in the NW caribbean a tropical storm forming and moving NNE into the GOM and strengthening into a strong tropical storm (but not a hurricane) and hitting Fla. panhandle maybe.

I'd say late, late June for the second tropical storm forming from a blob in the Bay of Campeche and hitting Mexico as a weak tropical storm.
Pearlandaggie- (pearland? P&A?) we're here...we're just deep underwater lurkers....I've seen this blog average 12 posts a minute sometimes...
Admin Lurks ...

P&A was not my choice...it was an unfortunate consequence of my poor choice of a username...LOL
Evening 236, good to see ya around.

Ok y'all, Got my Cerveza and now ready to sit back enjoy this fine Cinco and forget that the world is going to hell in a hand basket..At least for a bit.

If I did not live in a slightly redneck town I might of tried that running through the woods thing, but around here I would have ten cops on me. Now, the meth lab around the corner and over the hill would be biz as usual... :~)

At least it isn't T&A...I am still waiting to make that typo...
well then pearlandaggie...how would you like to be addressed? They just call me Aqua (amongst other things, behind my back, those scoundrels)
SJ, just don't go running thru the woods dressed as you are in your icon. Now then ya would get shot!
Aqua, it doesn't really matter. the P&A and Pearl thing seem to have taken on a life of their own! I'm sure I've been addressed with other names I shall not mention here as well! :)
Evening Aqua :~)

Have fun HOG
lmao Aqua, nice ☺
Good evening StormJunkie!
aquak9 looks like an oracle
I AM an oracle, Thrilla!
Myanmar is one of the largest rice producing countries in the world. Their harvest is normally roughly 4% of the world's total rice production. At 25 Million metric tons per year, they have almost as much rice as Thailand and Viet Nam, and nearly 3 times the production of the U.S.

40% of their rice crop is grown in the rice paddies of the Irrawaddy district. May is the planting month for next fall's harvest. Cyclone Nargis may have just disrupted or ruined a good portion of this year's planting.

Just 2% loss in world-wide rice production doesn't seem like much, but rice supplies are already stretched thin this year. If Myanmar only loses 20% of their rice production this year... that would be 5 Million metric tons.

If my math is right, at 1 lb/day of rice each, that 5 Million metric tons would feed 6 Million people for a year. That production will be a big loss, resulting in regional hunger this year and next.

Hopefully there is still time and opportunity to plant this years harvest and hope for the best in Myanmar.
Very good points TG!
Not if salt water has invaded the rice paddies, Texas. There is a good chance that the crop cannot be salvaged/planted, if that has happened.

Good bit of dry air/dust in the mid-levels off the African coast. But, not as much as has been recent in the GOM. Caribbean still shows a dry sign.

Good to see ya pottery.

I could be making a big mistake here, but I thought rice grew in salt fields/marshes...We use to do a bunch of that here in Charleston I think...

See article...Did not read the whole thing and I could be off base but I think I have this right.

That said, if they do not already have the right strains then it will not work.
Possibly bad news in the Indian Ocean in a couple weeks for May 13-19, the CPC says conditions will be favorable in the North Indian Ocean area, also near coast.
308. Then you have this to contend with:

Solving Asia's Food Crisis
"Several short-term cyclical and long-term structural factors have combined to spark the recent surge in the prices of rice and other cereals. Rising energy prices are pushing up prices of fertilizers and fuels. This, along with declining food stocks, diversion of food crops acreage to bio-fuels, and unfavorable weather events in some countries which have caused supply disruptions, has contributed to the surge in food prices."

SUVs, electricity and carbon credits don't mean a whole lot if you have nothing to put in your belly...I really feel for the people affected by Nargis.
why do some people's posts show up automatically hidden?
I sure hope the fact that Nargis targeted the most populated areas is not the start of a worldwide trend....
Aggie, depending on what you have your filter set to (upper left of blog) some folks show up hidden. I also think that brand new members show up hidden for a short period of time. If a single post gets too many minuses or ! then it will also start showing up hidden.
that is true, Michael...very true. however, a lot of built-up areas near the water are there for commerce reasons, not luxury homesites (especially in Texas). the reason the refineries and chemical plants are near the water is for cheap shipping and cooling water. i don't really see a way of getting around that unless everything becomes a LOT more expensive. however, i do agree that building a luxury home on a sandbar (see barrier island) seems like an excessively foolish thing.
We went to the moon in what 10 years? That is truly amazing.

Now ask yourself, if we really wanted to, how quickly could we reduce our oil dependency to 50% of it's current level.

Next, does no one realize that one day we will be out of room on our pale blue dot? And even if we do not run out of room it is pretty much inevitable that this planet will no longer support life one day. If we really wanted to how long would it take to set up shop on the moon and then Mars and then beyond?

How long would it take us to reduce global hunger issues?

How long would it take us to cure cancer?

With all of our brilliant minds I have no doubt that these things could be accomplished in fairly short order.

The point being our priorities are all stewed up!

324. Michael

I'm between 288 and 35 in West Oaks.

325. StormJunkie

very true. we refuse to do the things we need to do and instead focus on things we probably shouldn't do anything about.
SJ. I think you are wrong on the rice-growing conditions. But then, I may be wrong too, LOL.
As far as I know, rice is grown in shallow fresh- water in fields that are prepared for it. That is certainly how it is grown here and in Guyana etc. There may indeed be a salt-tolerant strain, but I never heard of that. I do know that there is a " dry-land" rice, that is grown in some areas, but not in Myamar/Burma, I dont think.
I will need to do some more homework on this I guess.
311, the Dry sign in the Caribbean should allow for the SST to go up with the lack of cloudliness blocking the Sun's heat from the ocean. The OLR values have been high but are anomalously around average.

hi everyone, i was wondering, what is a hurricane strap?

313. Michael 1:43 AM GMT on May 06, 2008
... Plus here in TX all new homes have hurricane straps by law.
327. Michael

Agreed, the trees are small and the building up to codes. However, I will never stay for anything above a Category 1 again. I still remember unloading plywood from the back of my truck when the NOAA weather announcement came over the radio to notify folks that Rita had become a Category 5 hurricane. I looked down at the plywood and it felt like fighting a housefire with a squirt gun. I wouldn't want to be around to see 100+ mph winds for a sustained period of time. but that's just me...
330. they come in various forms. H-clips are used to attach roof decking sheets to adjacent sheets. Other straps are used to attach the roof to the top of wall sill plates. Still other straps attach the wall studs directly to the concrete slab. These improvements were made after Andrew (and, IMHO, should have been done all along).
Straps are basically connectors. Idealy, your walls are connected to your floor, which is connected to your foundation. Then your roof is connected to your walls. So ultimately, your roof is connected to your foundations.
Hurricane Straps

these are used to attach the roof joists to the walls...
Hurricane straps are metal tie plates that secure the roof down to the support walls.

There are several different types of hurricane straps. They all serve the same purpose... to keep the roof joists and rafters secured down to the outer walls, keeping the house together.
Missing Americans in the Impact Zone Contact Information:

United States Embassy
Address: 110 University Ave, Kamayut Township, Rangoon, Burma
Office Hours: 08:00AM to 04:30PM (MON-FRI). Except for Embassy Holidays
Phone: (95)-(1)-536-509 and then will hit 1 to get to the Consular section
Fax: (95)-(1)-650-480
Email: ConsularRangoo@state.gov
ok. thank you

Carl Sagan brought it all home to me when I was about 14 and reading Pale Blue Dot. If you need a reality check read it!

if I remember correctly (I was only 16 at the time), the addition of the simple, galvanized attachment straps would have saved billions in damage in south Florida directly the result of poor building practices. I guess that's part of the reason why Andrew was so devastating.
345. Inyo
This Myanmar cyclone is horrible... I didn't realize it was a cat-4.

On a less somber note, moonlightcowboy, you can't really infer climate trends either way from a graph of only 10 years of time. As for the heat island effect, it is very real, but there have been analyses of temperature using rural stations only that also indicates the climate is warming. Most development and expansion of cities happened in the 50s anyway, so the trend would have been before then and climate was actually cooling around that time.
164. StormW 5:25 PM EDT
136. TerraNova 4:37 PM

286. HIEXPRESS 12:57 PM EDT on September 25, 2007
"The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has
also been discussed in scientific literature for its role on the seasonal distribution of hurricane
tracks. In the positive phase of the NAO, a strong Azores High favors hurricane recurvature out to sea before U.S. landfall, while a negative NAO implies a Bermuda High that is more likely to steer storms towards a U.S. landfall in Florida and the Gulf (Elsner, BAMS, 2003)."
Inyo, you can suggest and think anything you like. My inference and my opinion was simply contrived directly from the article posted. Thanks you for your input though, duly noted.
More than 10,000 people were killed in a devastating cyclone that hit western Burma on Saturday, Foreign Minister Nyan Win has said on state TV.

He said his government was ready to accept international assistance. Aid shipments are now being prepared. Link
here are the aluminum roof decking clips...

Staying in the Ol Condo eh?
Then you will love this Video from Aug 29th 2005, just inside the Breach at the 17th ST. Canal shot by the Fireman who rescued Hundreds for 4 days. That thing Swung Back and forth in Cat 2 winds my friend. Stock up On Dramamine.

Video of the 17th street canal floodwall collapsing. taken by New Orleans firefighters during Katrina.

House, are you convinced that the foundations and footings of the building are adequate, to withstand storm surge and wave-generated excavation, around your condo building?
In an otherwise substantial concrete or steel-framed structure, nothing will stand if it has its footings exposed, by surge or wave action.
here is a report from LSU on the effectiveness of damage mitigation techniques...


The Mississippi hurricane scenario was analyzed with the HAZUS Hurricane Model to explore
the effectiveness of improved building codes and construction practices in mitigating wind
damage. The mitigation options are based upon strategies incorporated in the Dade County
South Florida Building Code, described below (see the HAZUS Technical Manual for more
details). The hurricane provisions of the International Residential Code require similar
%uDBC0%uDC83 Protection of Building Openings
Windows and doors are the weak spots in the wall envelope. Requiring debris impact
resistant windows and doors or debris impact protective coverings (shutters) prevents
most window and door failures. This helps keep the wind and rain out of the
building, reducing structural damage, damage to finishes, and damage to contents.
%uDBC0%uDC83 Improved Roof Sheathing Attachment
Better attachment of the plywood or OSB roof sheathing to the roof structure through
appropriate fasteners and closer fastener spacing helps prevent sections of the roof
deck from being lifted off by the wind. This reduces progressive failures and wind
and water from penetrating the building envelope.
%uDBC0%uDC83 Improved Roof-Wall Connections
Installation of metal %u2018hurricane clips%u2019 or %u2018hurricane straps%u2019 provides a continuous load
path from the roof to the foundation, helping prevent catastrophic roof uplift failures.
All three mitigation options were used on areas south of the design 110 mph wind speed contour,
and only the improved roof-wall connection mitigation measure was used north of that contour.
This approximately represents requirements construction practice changes required by the IRC.
Reduction in Building Damage through Mitigation
The three mitigation strategies were applied to the hurricane scenario individually to assess the
effectiveness of each option. A combined analysis was also performed to provide an
understanding of the effectiveness of the combination of mitigation measures. The results of the
mitigation analysis are given in Tables 3. The results show a reduction of more than 38,000 to
the total number of buildings damaged. The mitigation measures are shown to be extremely
effective in reducing moderate, severe, and total destruction of buildings, with those reductions
being 50, 85, and 93% respectively.
Another view from my Photos of the Lake Marina Condo,round Sept 12th 2005.

OK House. You take care. And in the event of a big storm bearing down on you, If you can leave, then do that.
Better safe than sorry, we say !
well, i'm out...y'all have a good evening...
Its 10:51 here guys. I'm out.
Everyone sleep safe.
Ignoring a Natural Event to Blame Humans - full article by John McLean in October 2007.

It is shown here that there is good evidence the Great Pacific Climate Shift in 1976 changed the upwelling of cold water and moved the Pacific Ocean into a warmer state, which means towards El Niño conditions.

If we draw a trend line through the Southern Oscillation Index over a long term we find a trend towards El Niño conditions. It is a trend that's largely due to the 1976 shift because since then the Southern Oscillation has continued to fluctuate as it has always done, but now it does so about a lower mid-point. It is to be expected that in these circumstances the Walker Circulation will weaken and it would be a huge surprise if it was otherwise.

Natural events, and well-described events at that, can explain why the Walker Circulation has changed. The claim by Vecchi et al of a 99% probability that the change was due to humans can be soundly rejected. Power and Smith's (2007) claim that global warming has modified the Walker Circulation over the last 30 years is likewise refuted, although their claim of a shift towards El Niño is correct but it is wrongly attributed.

All three papers suggest that either the authors have an appalling lack of knowledge about one of the most important climate shifts in the twentieth century or that this event was deliberately ignored in order to falsely support the claim of man-made warming. There are no other options. I'd like to think it was the former, but there's plenty of reasons to consider it may have been the latter.

Other article: The Relationship of the PDO to El Nino and La Nina Frequency

Figure 1(above): Mantua’s PDO positive warm phase (left) and negative cold phase (right). Colors represent sea surface temperature anomalies (reds are warmer than normal, blues colder than normal)

They discovered that in the 20th century, the PDO tended to be predominantly positive from 1922 to 1947 and negative from 1947 to 1977 and then positive most of the time since 1977.

- These are not my words, but that of more intelligent and versed folks than myself. In here, one is whacked if they state opinion and whacked if they cut and paste information from elsewhere! LOL! Well, it matters not to me. I read and discern as I choose and believe what I choose and I will also post as I choose, too. I suspect most are reasonably smart enough to do the same. However, it is nice to be exposed to different thought and information from other than just the main stream trough that we're fed from daily.

MLC <---------out for the evening for some peace and quiet, and a lil shut-eye! Have a good sleep, folks. God be with the people of Myanmar and may they find solace in their time of grief.
Video taken by Guerra Family durin Hurricane Katrina. Chalmette, LA.
...in their own words.

OK, I am not sure about this house with straps question as I have just logged on and have not read all the previous posts...That being said...
The house I lived in in Pass Christian, MS had withstood Hurricane Camille. So, when I decided to build a new one a couple of lots further from the beach, I decided to go ahead and build it a bit better just in case. I built it on a five foot higher chain wall foundation...It was cynder block filled with tons of rebarb and concrete...it had the best windows and doors I could get...Heck I even got door knobs that were guaranteed for life...it was strong, as strong as I could make it...I was supposed to move in it the Friday after Katrina, so, if the birds would have been around that Sat. morning before she hit...I would have just stayed at my house and moved to the new one if things got rough...Luckily the birds, racoons, ants, everything decided to leave...so, since I had my baby with me, I decided to leave with them. I figured it would not be too good for him if the utilities went out...Anyway, I am so glad I did, because when finally got back to the Pass, both of my homes were nothing but slabs and my neighbors steel hurricane proof home looked good from my side of the yard, but, when I walked in front it was like a big tunnel...nothing in there...also, even the bridges were Knocked down, so, I would not consider anything safe from one of these mega storms...Lisa
Katrina showed that even the waterline of Camille in Biloxi, would be surpassed. And seeing 6 feet of water cross Hwy 90 at Waveland Ave,3.5 miles inland..boggles my simple mind still.

My heart goes out to the people of Myanmar.
Hopefully the rebuilding goes well, and relief arrives quickly.
10,000 died in one town.
Toll is now expected to reach 15,000.

May the dead rest in peace ♥
May the suffering soon be comforted ♥
and the lost found ♥

click on "interactive report" to view a Tampa Storm surge prediction.
Aid call as Burma casualties rise

Burma's capital Rangoon is one of the areas worst-affected by the cyclone

International agencies are pushing to gain access for a massive aid operation in Burma, where the toll from Saturday's cyclone continues to rise.

Up to 15,000 people are said to have died in the disaster, and many more are missing, officials say.

Hundreds of thousands of people are said to be without clean water and shelter, with some areas still cut-off.

Burma's leaders say they will accept external help, in a move correspondents say reflects the scale of the disaster.

BBC News
Myanmar cyclone wave killed most of 15,000 victims

By Aung Hla Tun

YANGON (Reuters) - A powerful cyclone that slammed into Myanmar's Irrawaddy delta triggered a massive wave that gave people nowhere to run, killing at least 15,000 and leaving 30,000 others missing, officials said on Tuesday.

"More deaths were caused by the tidal wave than the storm itself," Minister for Relief and Resettlement Maung Maung Swe told a news conference in the devastated former capital, Yangon, where food and water supplies are running low.

"The wave was up to 12 feet high and it swept away and inundated half the houses in low-lying villages," he said, giving the first detailed description of the weekend cyclone. "They did not have anywhere to flee." More...

The last cyclone that caused this many deaths was cyclone 02B that hit Bangladesh in 1991 killing 138,000 people. It seems a lot of the worlds deadliest cyclones form in the Bay of Bengal and with an increase of Indian ocean activity there could be a lot more Nargis's
FWF91....I am glad you posted the interactive flood surge report of Tampa. It just goes to show if a 20 ft storm surge hits Tampa, it will make NO look like a mud puddle

Pat......I love that video of the Guerro family...though tragic, it is still a great Hurricane Katrina flood surge video

God Bless everyone effected in Mayanmar
I'm watching CNN right now and they have CONFIRMED that Myanmar state run radio that they estimate that the death total is near 22,000!
390. IKE
AP: Myanmar state radio says cyclone death toll soars above 22,000.
I don't know how I missed this, and just heard about it. I will have to start checking the blogs more often.
Holy ......now the aid workers are thinking 50,000 may be closer to the number of fatalities.

Aid workers fear Burma cyclone deaths will top 50,000
Dear Lord!!! This is just insane how many people died in Myanmar from Nargis. At first, I couldn't believe that now 22,000 are DEAD. That government has the blood of many on their hands now as they were indifferent towards preparing their citizens and failed to aid in evacuations from the delta region. This is the worst disaster that has occurred on this planet since the Christmas Eve tsunami of 2004 that took well over 250,000 lives in the Indian Ocean region. God bless them all and may that nation find peace and aid in their suffering.
That nation's government really ****** its people over big time. Now, even after screwing up unbelievably bad, their refusing United States aid. The UN needs to intervene and remove the current administration over there for allowing this tragedy (this is what it truly has become when you boil everything down) to occur. There is no way this many people should have died since they had ample notice of this storm. The tsunami was one thing, this is on the complete opposite end of the spectra.
You know that I respect you 456, but how in the world can you post something on our hurricane season, when a true disaster has occured elsewhere in the world? Screw our Atlantic basin, we need to send aid to Myanmar, although it has been, to this point, refused by its government.
400. IKE
From CNN....

" Based on a satellite map made available by the U.N., the storm's damage was concentrated over about a 30,000 square-kilometer area along the Andaman Sea and Gulf of Martaban coastlines, which is home to nearly a quarter of Myanmar's 57 million people.

Kyi Minn, of the international aid group World Vision, told CNN that the situation was bleak.

"It could be worse than [the] tsunami,"
Minn said, comparing the cyclone's impact on Myanmar to the damage caused following the tsunami that struck the region in late 2004. The tsunami was triggered by a a massive earthquake off the coast of Indonesia and killed more than 150,000 across the region."
another wave coming off africa...
Missing Americans in the Impact Zone Contact Information:

United States Embassy
Address: 110 University Ave, Kamayut Township, Rangoon, Burma
Office Hours: 08:00AM to 04:30PM (MON-FRI). Except for Embassy Holidays
Phone: (95)-(1)-536-509 and then will hit 1 to get to the Consular section
Fax: (95)-(1)-650-480
Email: ConsularRangoo@state.gov
It's a terrible tragedy. I thank all of you for the links and scraps of information you have posted for everyone.

From what I have read and heard....CNN is the only Television news outlet allowed in the country.
There are other print outlets in there but I don't have a list.
So monitor CNN for the latest.
Burma aid chief fears 50,000 dead in cyclone
May 6, 2008 - 8:45PM Link
30000 by the end of this day
BBC: In pictures: Cyclone aftermath Link
unnessary death if they only evac delta the toll would have been lower
22,464 people have now been confirmed dead from Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar.

Oh my! Is this the worst tropical system in history? Surely overall public health standards world wide have to contribute to the great loss of life with population booms in these economically challenged countries.

I don't think hurricance Mitch did this much damage and caused as much death. A whole town of 10,000 was completely wiped off the map during Nargis. This is hard to comprehend.
..If a Katrina sized storm took the path as Nargis did.The Toll of the lost would be easily 200,000 plus.

from the entry above,Dr. Masters

Nargis hit the coast of Myanmar Friday night as powerful Category 3 cyclone with winds of 130 mph. The cyclone took the worst possible track, passing directly over the densely populated and low lying Irrawaddy River delta. A deadly storm surge--probably around 12 feet high--inundated the delta region, accounting for most of the deaths. The storm's fierce winds killed many more. The only fortunate thing about Nargis was its small size. Hurricane-force winds covered an area about 90 miles in diameter (Figure 1). In contrast, the wind field of Katrina at landfall spanned an area about 205 miles in diameter. Winds from both storms at landfall were about the same (strong Category 3), but Katrina's winds covered an area four times larger than Nargis.

I heard this storm might have already reached a death toll of 200,000. Even if the death toll doesn't grow the economy will fail lots of rice crop were destroyed no rice for a year and bad rice (from salt water intrusion) for the next decade that country will struggle