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This is February? 80°F in Denver, 99° in Oklahoma, 66° in Iceland, 116° in Australia

By: Bob Henson 4:17 PM GMT on February 14, 2017

The strong, recurrent Pacific jet stream that’s been delivering massive amounts of rain to California has also been pushing mild Pacific air downslope off the Rockies and eastward, keeping the southern two-thirds of the U.S. absurdly warm for early February. From New Mexico to Virginia southward to the Gulf Coast, trees and shrubs are budding out en masse up to three weeks ahead of schedule (see Figure 1). In Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth recorded its last freezing temperature on January 8. With no freezes expected into at least the last week of the month, there’s a chance that the Jan. 8 reading of 20°F will be DFW’s last freeze of the winter. That would eclipse the earliest final freeze of the season (Feb. 5, 2000), in records extending back to 1899. The February warmth comes after a three-month span that was milder in Texas than any Nov/Dec/Jan period since the 1930s Dust Bowl, according to state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.

The warm, moist air prevailing along the South has been teaming up with occasional jet-stream intrusions to produce severe thunderstorms, including an unusually large number of tornadoes for the year thus far. This includes six confirmed tornadoes across southeast Louisiana on February 7, with an EF3 twister causing more than 30 injuries and damaging or destroying more than 600 homes in and near East New Orleans (see the detailed National Weather Service survey report on all six tornadoes). As of February 13, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center had tallied 163 U.S. tornadoes for the year thus far, not quite a record but far above average. On Tuesday morning, NOAA/SPC placed parts of the western and central Gulf Coast under a slight risk of severe weather, with a small enhanced-risk area along the central Texas coast near a large thunderstorm complex that had already produced several tornado reports west of Houston.


Figure 1. An index of the seasonal progress of leafy plants shows conditions 20 days or more ahead of schedule over large parts of the South and Southwest as of Sunday, February 12. Image credit: USA National Phenology Network via @TheresaCrimmins.


Figure 2. Spectators watch as a tornado-damaged water tower comes down in Rowlett, TX, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2017. Workers toppled the Dallas-area water tower that was severely damaged during a 2015 tornado outbreak blamed for more than a dozen deaths. Image credit: Vernon Bryant/The Dallas Morning News via AP.

Close to the century mark in Oklahoma
While there’s been quite a few ups and downs to the national temperature picture in recent days, with frequent frontal passages, the low temperatures haven’t been all that low and the highs have been unusually high, as noted by WU blogger Steve Gregory. For the month to date through February 12, NOAA had compiled a preliminary total of 1207 daily record highs and 10 daily record lows, for a staggering ratio of more than 100 to 1. It’s a picture in line with recent months: November 2016 had the largest ratio of record highs to lows of any month in modern records. It’s also consistent with the inexorable effect of human-produced greenhouse gases in boosting temperatures to make record warmth more widespread and extreme than record cold.

One especially strong pulse of warm air jet pushed across the Southern Rockies and into the South from Friday into Sunday. As the already-mild air descended the Rockies, it warmed further due to downslope compression, leading to some eye-popping readings. Several stations in southwest Oklahoma soared into the upper 90s on Saturday. The town of Mangum hit an astounding-for-February 99°F, which tied the state record for any winter month (Dec/Jan/Feb) that was set at Arapaho on Feb. 24, 1918.

Here’s a sampling of the all-time February heat records set over the past several days. In many cases, you have to go to mid-March to find comparable warmth!

Friday 2/10:
Wichita Falls, TX: 94°F (next-earliest reading at least this warm was 98°F on 3/1/2006; records began in 1923)
Liberal, KS: 90°F (next-earliest 90° was 3/11/1989; records began in 1893)
Amarillo, TX: 89°F (next-earliest 89° was 3/10/1989; records began in 1892)
Goodland, KS: 87°F (next-earliest 87° was 3/10/1989; records began in 1895)
Denver, CO: 80°F (next-earliest reading at least this warm was 81°F on 3/16/2015; records began in 1872). A cooperative observing station at the site of Denver’s former Stapleton Airport, where official readings were taken until the mid-1990s, reported 83°F.

Saturday 2/11:
Lubbock, TX: 91°F (next-earliest reading at least this warm was 95°F on 3/11/1989; records began in 1911)

Sunday 2/12:
Norfolk, VA: 82°F (ties all-time monthly high set on 2/4/1890 and other dates; records began in 1874)



Figure 3. High temperatures across Oklahoma on Saturday, February 11, were similar to readings one might expect in early July. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet, @okmesonet.



Figure 4. Temperature departures from average for the period February 1-12, 2017. The warm anomalies will likely persist, as models are calling for continued milder-than-average weather over most of the nation through late February. Image credit: NOAA/CPC Climate Prediction Center.


Cold enough to ski; too mild to ice-climb
The abnormally mild February hasn’t put a dent in Colorado’s bang-up ski season. The highest slopes are still more than cold enough to support a healthy snowpack even with above-average temperatures. At opensnow.com, Joel Gratz noted that the statewide snowpack as of Sunday, February 12, had already matched the level reached during the early-April peak of an average year. “What an awesome season so far with more to come!” exclaimed Gratz. Meanwhile, at Colorado’s lower elevations, those hankering for winter recreation felt the pinch of unseasonal warmth. The state’s Ouray Ice Park climbing venue was forced to close for the season on Friday, February 10, a full month earlier than average. “While we still hold a glimmer of hope for this season at the Park, that is fading fast,” said the park in a plaintive online statement.

Surges of warmth continue to funnel into high Arctic
The strong jet streams crossing the U.S. of late have spun up several powerful Northeast snowstorms (see embedded video below) and gone on to push very mild, moist air deep into the Arctic. One such spike arrived late last week, with temperatures of 50°F or more above average approaching the North Pole as reported by Capital Weather Gang and The Weather Network (Canada).

Well downstream from the nor’easter that was slamming eastern New England on Monday, a swath of low-latitude air pushed the temperature at Eyjabakkar, Iceland, up to 19.1°C (66.4°F). If validated, this will rank a full 1°C (1.8°F) above the previous national record for February, set at Dalatangi on Feb. 17, 1998, according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. He adds that temperatures in the free atmosphere over central Sweden were analyzed above the freezing mark on Monday at heights of up to 11,000 feet.

Unsurprisingly, the extent of Arctic sea ice remains at record-low levels for mid-February. Moreover, the extent of Antarctic sea ice is on the brink of setting a record-low value for any time of year.


Figure 5. This year is lagging all other years since records began in 1979 for sea ice extent in February. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.


Figure 6. Smoke billows from a wildfire near Mudgee, Australia, on Monday, Feb. 13, 2017. The fire has consumed more than 5000 hectares (12,350 acres) of bush and grasslands northwest of Sydney. Image credit: New South Wales Rural Fire Service via AP.

Eastern Australia blisters in all-time record heat
Another swarm of heat records invaded eastern Australia, where a brutal summer is unfolding. Port Macquairie, where records have been kept since 1910, broke its all-time record for any date on Sunday with a scorching high of 46.6°C (115.9°F). That’s an incredible 3.3°C (5.9°F) above the city’s previous all-time high. “You don’t break [100-plus-year] records by 3C,” noted Andrew Watkins (@windjunky). An even older all-time high fell at Toowoomba, Queensland, where a maximum of 40.3°C (104.5°F) was the first reading above 40°C (104°F) since records began at Toowoomba way back in 1869. Fire danger across parts of tinder-dry New South Wales has been at near-record levels, and bushfires have already swallowed up dozens of homes, with more hot weather returning late this week.

Bob Henson


Figure 7. James Cagney, 13, of Portland walks on Noyes Street on his way to shovel a neighbor's driveway on Monday, Feb. 13, 2017. A major nor’easter dumped 1 to 3 feet of snow across parts of Maine. South of the intensifying low, wind gusts howled at 50-60 mph or more from the mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Image credit: Derek Davis/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images.






Video 1. Annotated GOES-16 imagery of the winter storm that pummeled eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes on Monday, February 13. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.

Tornado Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welcome to the Anthropocene'


Hot here, too! The Chicago area will be in the fifties and sixties, for more than two weeks? No snow since December 2016! The daffodils are really coming up now! By the time I get back from Florida, they'll be blooming, at this rate!
The climate is convulsing
Dineo

Disaster funding ?
Australia – 1 Dead, 1 Missing, Crops Destroyed After Floods in Western Australia


The flooding has been described as some of the worst in decades and is estimated to have caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage with roads, bridges and farms affected.

Link

Post #1 Elioe.

Noticed the HWRF brings him up to 100 knots. Landfall forecast calls for 75 knots minimum. Very small compact storm. The smaller they are the more chaotic the forecasting can become with them.

Population density map of Mozambique as of year 2000. Later data source, but still shows wide area of 25-250 people per square kilometer all along the southern coastline.



Southern 1/3 of the country is mainly grasslands within a rather flat topography.



The main city that I gather from this map in the projected path is Inhambane population 66,000 (2007]




Excellent summary Mr. Henson; this persistent Pacific Jet flow pattern has certainly caused some very noteworthy, (deadly tornadoes and West Coast flooding), weather events for Conus that we do not normally see in January and February; it's a major event in many ways as we continued to watch the advance of the current severe weather threat along the Gulf Coast:


today Reports Graphic  
And this is not snowfall but rainfall...........Lots of rain across many parts of the world today and notably in the Southern Hemisphere wet season:




College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 1022 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 957 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 956 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2017
It's summer in Australia, and it does get very hot their, yes it has been warm this winter, so what, it will get cool again, just like the droughts in Texas a few years ago, and California now. They didn't last long like a lot of the so called experts were stating at the time, and like a lot of the so called expert bloggers on here were stating too. Why not post about the sever weather in Texas and the South?
Thanks for the updates Mr.Henson....
So I guess "Senator Snowball's " grand kids weren't out building igloos in Oklahoma last Saturday /
Quoting 7. ILwthrfan:
The main city that I gather from this map in the projected path is Inhambane population 66,000 (2007]


Very close is Maxixe (pop. 106,000). 06Z HWRF showed center of Dineo passing 5-10 miles to the north of both cities, while at ~950 mbar. Latest HWRF shows the same trajectory, but somewhat higher pressure.

Quoting 14. elioe:



Very close is Maxixe (pop. 106,000). 06Z HWRF showed center of Dineo passing 5-10 miles to the north of both cities, while at ~950 mbar. Latest HWRF shows the same trajectory, but somewhat higher pressure.




Note the 90 degree impact to the coast.

Surge is going well inland.
Thanks for the good summary of the unusual readings all over the world (and great loops!).
Norwegians are already tinkering with a solution of the problem of warmer winters:

Norway seeks to climate-proof skiing with eco snow machines
Researchers are developing a machine that simultaneously heats homes and produces snow, to save a national pastime from global warming
Climate Home, Published on 13/02/2017, 11:12am

More from Norway:
Norwegian ice cap 'exceptionally sensitive' to climate change
Phys Org, February 14, 2017
How will future climate change affect our glaciers? By looking into the past 4000 years, a new study lead by Henning Akesson at the Bjerknes Centre finds an ice cap in southern Norway to be 'exceptionally sensitive' to climate change. ...
Looks like we had a possible Tornado here in Stafford, Texas this morning by my work. I am right down the street from Pentair. The fence at our office building was blown down and there are tree limbs and debris all over the place.

Link

Quoting 11. NativeSun:

It's summer in Australia, and it does get very hot their, yes it has been warm this winter, so what, it will get cool again, just like the droughts in Texas a few years ago, and California now. They didn't last long like a lot of the so called experts were stating at the time, and like a lot of the so called expert bloggers on here were stating too. Why not post about the sever weather in Texas and the South?


Just to refresh your memory one more time -


Texas Sets Record for Hottest Summer in U.S. History

Worst Drought in Texas History Ravages Crops, Livestock
August 31, 2011


This Was Officially The Hottest Summer In California History

SEP 15, 2016

We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years.
How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?





Heatwave kills thousands of bats across New South Wales

Thousands of dead bats are dropping from trees after temperatures topped 45 degrees in parts of New South Wales.

Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of rain across many parts of the world today and notably in the Southern Hemisphere wet season:


Not for SA's Western Cape, unfortunately.
"Cape Town only has around 135 days of usable water left.
Daily water consumption has been cut to 700 million litres as the municipality and residents grapple with a drought. Dam levels have dropped to just over 26%."

Link
Cape Town urges monumental effort to save water
We are pandering policy to billionaires and handing them the keys at the worst possible time. We are now in every facet of government going to do what's best for the 1% and absolutely worst for the average American. Have we really become so stupid that we don't see that as a country and are we going to allow them to make America into an Oligarchy Fascist state of the 1%, for the 1%, and by the 1%? Are we really going to attack the ghettos, ban the Muslims, and try to deport millions of illegal immigrants and ruin families by the tens of thousands. And whatever else Sessions may do, and that is a long list. Maybe have a white only country and if your poor, surprise, your the new minority. The bonds of oppression are again being put on us who hold truth dear, we must not let it be so.
Close to the century mark in Oklahoma

While there’s been quite a few ups and downs to the national temperature picture in recent days, with frequent frontal passages, the low temperatures haven’t been all that low and the highs have been unusually high, as noted by WU blogger Steve Gregory. For the month to date through February 12, NOAA had compiled a preliminary total of 1207 daily record highs and 10 daily record lows, for a staggering ratio of more than 100 to 1. It’s a picture in line with recent months: November 2016 had the largest ratio of record highs to lows of any month in modern records. It’s also consistent with the inexorable effect of human-produced greenhouse gases in boosting temperatures to make record warmth more widespread and extreme than record cold.


Ooh, heard a cry for mercy
In the city of the damned
Oh oh babe, damned
In the pits you go no lower
The next stop's underground
Oh, hello underground
Wine and roses ain't quite over
Fate deals a losing hand
And I said, didn't mean to, did not mean to fail
You didn't plan it, you over-ran it




Quoting 19. RobertWC:



Just to refresh your memory one more time -


Texas Sets Record for Hottest Summer in U.S. History

Worst Drought in Texas History Ravages Crops, Livestock
August 31, 2011


This Was Officially The Hottest Summer In California History

SEP 15, 2016

We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years.
How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?





Heatwave kills thousands of bats across New South Wales

Thousands of dead bats are dropping from trees after temperatures topped 45 degrees in parts of New South Wales.




The Bubble has done burst, the next great dying is well underway.

I saw a few Monarchs jus awhile ago here with the porch door opened. One came in for a brief moment and left to the South.

I cried.

Barra Beach Resort, 11 miles NE of downtown Inhambane. At the northernmost extent of the peninsula east of Inhambane, it could experience those 115 mph winds. Not sure of nearby bathymetry (surge potential), but anyway I expect, that not much will be left of those buildings.

Australia - pyrocumulus on Sun 12 as seen from satellite, animated gif: Link

Same, Feb 12, as seen from Sir Ivan, NSW. Via @EKMeteo.
We have our hands full across the world at the moment, and particularly in terms of Global and Arctic warming issues, let alone alone political issues................If the weather events of 2014 through the present, and particularly this current period from 2016 to 2017, do not open your eyes on AGW then you are either dumb, deaf, blind or in the pocket of corporate/national fossil fuel interests who could care less about the environment and more interested in keeping the current status quo............Most of us on here know what the right answer is.
Quoting 23. Patrap:



The Bubble has done burst, the next great dying is well underway.

I saw a few Monarchs jus awhile ago here with the porch door opened. One came in for a brief moment and left to the South.

I cried.



I'm trying to find ways to forget it all and look away and go along with the music and some other nice, time-stopping activities.
Meantime blogs will have to put up with my well-intended mean remarks.
Quoting 28. cRRKampen:


I'm trying to find ways to forget it all and look away and go along with the music and some other nice, time-stopping activities.
Meantime blogs will have to put up with my well-intended mean remarks.


Thankfully my Son's Band plays at the NOLA House of Blues every Tuesday at the Voodoo Gardens there. Tonight we will as usual do that,and it's my Daughters B-day today as well.

The FEMA Trailer days memories for us all then fade, but have a place too now.

Life goes on, but the circle is not 360 anymore.

Kinda like our orbit around SOL..we seem to be out by 5.25 degrees as well.

The future bodes ahead.

The Dude does not abide at all Man'..
Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

We have our hands full across the world at the moment, and particularly in terms of Global and Arctic warming issues, let alone alone political issues................If the weather events of 2014 through the present, and particularly this current period from 2016 to 2017, do not open your eyes on AGW then you are either dumb, deaf, blind or in the pocket of corporate/national fossil fuel interests who could care less about the environment and more interested in keeping the current status quo............Most of us on here know what the right answer is.


The Earth could literally burst into a ball of fire f and conservatives would say it was liberals playing with matches and gas.
Quoting 11. NativeSun:

It's summer in Australia, and it does get very hot their, yes it has been warm this winter, so what, it will get cool again, just like the droughts in Texas a few years ago, and California now. They didn't last long like a lot of the so called experts were stating at the time, and like a lot of the so called expert bloggers on here were stating too. Why not post about the sever weather in Texas and the South?

In addition to Dr. Masters and Mr Henson, are there any other people for whom you enjoy telling them how to do their job?
Quoting 23. Patrap:



The Bubble has done burst, the next great dying is well underway.

I saw a few Monarchs jus awhile ago here with the porch door opened. One came in for a brief moment and left to the South.

I cried.




You're not the Lone Ranger.
Quoting 31. ohzone:



The Earth could literally burst into a ball of fire f and conservatives would say it was liberals playing with matches and gas.


Or we can change the talking points to a simple example that most would understand; "The current Co2 induced warming period of the last 100 years is essentially equivalent to the Earth moving one foot per hour towards the Sun over the last 100 years"..................................
Quoting 26. 999Ai2016:

Australia: pyrocumulus on Sun 12 as seen from satellite ...

Wow! BTW, BBC weather yesterday had a video about this fire induced thunderstorms in Australia:
http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/38961718
What a relief that climate change doesn't really exist
The Sidney Morning Herald - February 14, 2017.
Quoting 33. RobertWC:



You're not the Lone Ranger.




Careful Citizen, you could be wrong.

..Peyote?


http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13939634 /arctic-unprecedented-warming-climate-change-repor t-card-noaa

Warmer temperatures are also causing sub-Arctic species to move north. One example is themasked shrew, a small mole-like mammal that lives in the forests just below the Arctic tundra, in Alaska and Canada. These animals — and their parasites — are now spreading north, making life harder for another type of shrew typical on this area, the barren ground shrew. This is changing what wildlife looks like in the Arctic.

All these changes in the region will affect the world in way we don’t fully comprehend yet. Scientists are just now starting to understand the connection between destabilizing Arctic climate and extreme weather events. Sea level rise and coastal erosion are only some of the consequences of the warming trends described in the Arctic Report Card.

“The Arctic is going to touch the life of every single American, whether directly or indirectly,” Mathis says, “and I think that impact is going to grow over time.”

Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

We have our hands full across the world at the moment, and particularly in terms of Global and Arctic warming issues, let alone alone political issues................If the weather events of 2014 through the present, and particularly this current period from 2016 to 2017, do not open your eyes on AGW then you are either dumb, deaf, blind or in the pocket of corporate/national fossil fuel interests who could care less about the environment and more interested in keeping the current status quo............Most of us on here know what the right answer is.

Where's washingaway with that Kierkegaard quote?
this is the best winter ever in florida, shorts and flip flops every day!
People have used shells, gold, sticks, carved rocks for "money"
What a trillion dollars looks like printed in $100 bills.
When folks talk about 8 billion, 200 billion or one trillion dollars in damages, have a gander at what it looks like.
Tech note - there is only 1.4 trillion dollars of printed U.S. currency ( plus forgeries which makes the pile bigger)
http://www.dailycognition.com/index.php/2009/03/2 5/what-1-trillion-dollars-looks-like-in-dollar-bil ls.html
From the Miami Herald:

Coastal Everglades, deprived of fresh water, near unhealthy ‘tipping point’

SHARK RIVER – At the bottom of the Everglades along the mouth of the Shark River, a towering mangrove forest stands in a place few people outside anglers and researchers ever see: at the edge of a vast shallow bay where the salty sea and freshwater marshes conspired to erect a cathedral of trees.

In the current fight over restoration, this isolated region often gets overlooked. While Lake Okeechobee pollution to the north grabs headlines and gets the attention of Florida lawmakers, it’s actually here where damage may be most profound.

For the last 16 years, nearly 80 scientists and their students from 29 organizations — including all the state’s major universities, the National Park Service and the South Florida Water Management District — have embarked on one of the longest and largest studies ever conducted on South Florida’s coastal Everglades. They now fear the system may be at what lead investigator Evelyn Gaiser calls a “tipping point,” where change is happening faster than scientists expected and spinning into a self-perpetuating cycle of decline.

The mangroves ringing the coast are moving inland, overtaking vital freshwater marshes. Growing swathes of peat, the rich mucky soil that formed over a few thousand years, are collapsing. And periphyton, the spongy brown mats of native algae that form the foundation of the food chain, is shrinking.

Aside from losing one of the planet’s rarest ecosystems, changes happening in the system could also have global consequences, damaging one of the region’s main defenses against climate change fueled by greenhouse gases.

“The threat here is we’re changing the system from one that is very good at sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,” said Gaiser, a Florida International University aquatic ecologist, “to one that’s very rapidly losing it.”

Click here to read more

Quoting 14. elioe:



Very close is Maxixe (pop. 106,000). 06Z HWRF showed center of Dineo passing 5-10 miles to the north of both cities, while at ~950 mbar. Latest HWRF shows the same trajectory, but somewhat higher pressure.




Good catch. Did not see Maxixe within the map I grabbed.

Interesting to note with Dr. Masters Feb 1-12th summary has my area at around were only 5-6 F above normal, compared to nearly double that in all of November, December, and January. This is by far the coolest stretch of winter up and around here. Grass is erupting in my yard. I will no doubt have to mow by Sunday it looks like. Highs will be well over 60F. That's and easy plus 20 F above normal.





Source. Dineo in the channel between Madagaskar and Mozambique. Temp of water is above 30C (86F) in that region, according to this article: link. The marine hot spot is also visible on this map with surface temps from yesterday:


(Click to enlarge).

Edit: Ah, here is a better portrait of the cyclone. Source: NASA via Twitter.
Quoting 43. Xandra:

From the Miami Herald:

Coastal Everglades, deprived of fresh water, near unhealthy ‘tipping point’

SHARK RIVER – At the bottom of the Everglades along the mouth of the Shark River, a towering mangrove forest stands in a place few people outside anglers and researchers ever see: at the edge of a vast shallow bay where the salty sea and freshwater marshes conspired to erect a cathedral of trees.

In the current fight over restoration, this isolated region often gets overlooked. While Lake Okeechobee pollution to the north grabs headlines and gets the attention of Florida lawmakers, it’s actually here where damage may be most profound.

For the last 16 years, nearly 80 scientists and their students from 29 organizations — including all the state’s major universities, the National Park Service and the South Florida Water Management District — have embarked on one of the longest and largest studies ever conducted on South Florida’s coastal Everglades. They now fear the system may be at what lead investigator Evelyn Gaiser calls a “tipping point,” where change is happening faster than scientists expected and spinning into a self-perpetuating cycle of decline.

The mangroves ringing the coast are moving inland, overtaking vital freshwater marshes. Growing swathes of peat, the rich mucky soil that formed over a few thousand years, are collapsing. And periphyton, the spongy brown mats of native algae that form the foundation of the food chain, is shrinking.

Aside from losing one of the planet’s rarest ecosystems, changes happening in the system could also have global consequences, damaging one of the region’s main defenses against climate change fueled by greenhouse gases.

“The threat here is we’re changing the system from one that is very good at sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,” said Gaiser, a Florida International University aquatic ecologist, “to one that’s very rapidly losing it.”

Click here to read more




When one stabs the earth repeatedly over a short time, the cuts seems nominal..but when the Beast rises up..She deals the ultimate hand.

Did we not think a price wouldn't be due?, a social debt to the next 20 generations is under margin call today by Nature.

The Gold claimed by the oil and coal Barons is not the payment wanted,..it was always here and it will remain here when we are long gone.

Souls are gonna pay for the crime committed.


Slashing FEMA funds -

Interestingly, many of the states that received the most federal recovery aid to cope with climate-linked extreme weather have federal legislators who are climate-science deniers. The 10 states that received the most federal recovery aid in FY 2011 and 2012 elected 47 climate-science deniers to the Senate and the House. Nearly two-thirds of the senators from these top 10 recipient states voted against granting federal emergency aid to New Jersey and New York after Superstorm Sandy.

Link
Twenty-seven years ago, Voyager 1 looked back toward Earth and saw a 'pale blue dot'.

Excerpt:

Sagan wrote in his "Pale Blue Dot" book: "That's here. That's home. That's us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. … There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world."


Carl Sagan - Pale Blue Dot

I used to fish Whitewater Bay and the Shark River area on a flats boat out of Flamingo in the late 80's - early 90's on a regular basis and it was a magical place where you could catch Trout and Snook on the edge of the bay along the Mangrove lines and push up into the tidal creeks and catch freshwater Bass along the brackish water lines; sounds like my old haunting ground is in deep trouble from salt water intrusion.........................................
How a Russian Steel Oligarch and Putin Ally Is Profiting from the Keystone XL Pipeline

DeSmog has uncovered that 40 percent of the steel created so far was manufactured in Canada by a subsidiary of Evraz, a company partly owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who is a close ally of Putin and a Trump family friend. Evraz has also actively lobbied against provisions which would mandate that Keystone XL’s steel be made in the U.S.

Link
Swiss cheese ain't looking too good, sea surface temperature anomalies are impressively high on the N Atlantic / Barents sea side (and these two heat chimneys near Svalbard can't be a good sign - heat surging from beneath the halocline, from the deep ocean?):

Click to enlarge


Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere: "Antarctic sea ice set an all-time record low on Monday in a dramatic reversal from the record highs of recent years." Source:
Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at Both Poles / Climate Central - Feb 13.
The age of reason has ended and the age of treason has begun. It's being carried out by our own government. Against the people, against the environment, against every species on the planet, and against good as a whole. For profit at any cost.
Oroville update: Evacuation order remains as officials want '100 percent' safety assurance
Sacramento Bee, Live report, February 14, 2017 6:16 AM


Oroville Dam Spillway 2-14-17 8:15am Rocks and Concrete :
Today we can see workers placing rocks and concrete where one of the larger erosion channels opened up.


Foto AFP (I guess this crane could lower a camera into that hole to further explore it?)

Some Geological Observations On The Oroville Dam
Forbes, Feb 14

Engineers have known for decades that Oroville%u2019s backup spillway was unreliable
SacBee, February 13, 2017 4:32 PM
‘There’s a lot at stake here.’ US Antarctic expert Eric Rignot on climate science in the age of Trump

US-based glaciologist Eric Rignot is in New Zealand this week to talk about polar ice sheets and their potential to add to predicted sea level rise. He tells Veronika Meduna that it’s more important than ever to discuss climate science and what it’s like to be a climate scientist during the Trump presidency.

Link
Not Weather related, but this has never happened before.
Microsoft Tuesday Postponed,
Really?

On a Tuesday, again?


From Grist:

DAM PROBLEMS

You can expect to see more Oroville-style dam disasters in our future. On Sunday, officials ordered the evacuation of nearly 200,000 Northern California residents with assurances that “this is NOT a drill”. Their communities are at risk of being flooded by water from overflowing Lake Oroville, the state’s second largest reservoir.

After years of drought, California has recently been pummeled by rain and snow. That’s caused the lake’s water level to rise so much that water has flowed out not just via the main concrete spillway, but via the emergency earthen spillway, too. In early February, a gaping hole appeared in the main spillway, and it’s since grown. Authorities have determined that the second spillway is also at risk of failing.

The Sierra Club and two other environmental organizations warned about potential problems with the emergency spillway 12 years ago, but federal and state officials rejected concerns and said the spillway met guidelines, the Mercury News reports.

Situations like the one at Oroville Dam could crop up more often in coming years as climate change intensifies California’s cycles of drought and heavy precipitation. The state inspects its dams more than many others (although that’s not saying much), but extreme future storms can be expected to put enormous stress on the state’s essential water infrastructure.
I would be very interested to hear or read Eldridge Moores's take on the geology of the dam end of Oroville Lake and the "repairs" that are being put in place. I suspect his thumb would point toward the floor.
Quoting 41. Tampa969mlb:
this is the best winter ever in florida, shorts and flip flops every day!


oh just wait.....
Naming a Storm: How Tropical Cyclone #Dineo got its name
2017-02-14 18:01 - Louzel Lombard Steyn

What this article fails to say: the (female) name "Dineo" was contributed from Botswana (scroll down) and its meaning is: gift. Guess that's the reason why quite a lot of African folks on Twitter are wondering about it ;-)
Climate Diaries: Tracking "irreversible" ice flows in Antarctica

CBS News
It does not look as bad for LA as this time last week (no tornado reports yet) and it looks like the Pacific jet has not overrun all the way over the Northern Gulf today like it did last Tuesday; hopefully there will be no/very few tornadoes as the front pushes into Louisiana but it looks like a tight little window clear of additional mid-level vorticity which could change as the afternoon rolls on:


last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic


Extreme Ice Survey – A program of Earth Vision Institute

Link
They did a story yesterday on the CBS evening news on the "crack" on one of the Antarctic ice shelves that could result in large berg the size of Delaware breaking away and melting out at some point...........I could post a link but a picture is worth a few thousand words:





Huh...where is Oklahoma's Senator Inhofe and his equally silly snowball now?
Quoting 53. barbamz:

>Oroville Dam Spillway 2-14-17 8:15am Rocks and Concrete :
Today we can see workers placing rocks and concrete where one of the larger erosion channels opened up.


Foto AFP (I guess this crane could lower a camera into that hole to further explore it?)




That's not a crane, that's a cement pump, used to pump cement slurry into areas a normal cement truck cannot reach.
Quoting 67. nashvillebill:



That's not a crane, that's a cement pump, used to pump cement slurry into areas a normal cement truck cannot reach.
Yeah,and I hope they're not paying a whole lot for that concrete they're laying down in there, because it's probably all going to wind up in the river before very long. But I guess they really don't have any options for good solutions to that problem and the bad ones aren't solutions.
Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at Both Poles

Arctic temperatures have finally started to cool off after yet another winter heat wave stunted sea ice growth over the weekend. The repeated bouts of warm weather this season have stunned even seasoned polar researchers, and could push the Arctic to a record low winter peak for the third year in a row.

Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice set an all-time record low on Monday in a dramatic reversal from the record highs of recent years.


Link
In spite of all of the weather issues around, Happy Valentine's Day to the Bloggers with close loved ones and do not forget them; leaving early today to make preps so the Wife does not have to cook this evening.................See Yall Tomorrow.
Quoting 67. nashvillebill:
That's not a crane, that's a cement pump, used to pump cement slurry into areas a normal cement truck cannot reach.

Ah, I see. Thank you.

From the SacBee Live Blog:
11:55 a.m.: Lake Oroville should be empty enough to handle new storm, hydrologist says
As water levels continue to drop at Lake Oroville, the state's chief hydrologist said Tuesday the reservoir should be empty enough to withstand the next round of rainstorms expected to hit late Wednesday.
Department of Water Resources hydrologist Maury Roos said the lake is expected to be holding about 3.15 million acre-feet of water by late Wednesday, leaving about 380,000 acre-feet of empty space.
"That would be adequate for the size of the storm that's forecast," Roos said. "We'd like to have more."
Ideally, flood-control manuals say the lake should be down to 2.79 million acre-feet for this time of year, but that's in anticipation of "a very large flood," Roos said. "There's nothing in the (weather) outlook that suggests we're going to get that."
DWR has been frantically releasing water from its damaged spillway at 100,000 cubic feet per second to empty out space before the next storm approaches. The lake was at 887 feet high just before noon, 14 feet below the top of the dam, and has been dropping about a half a foot per hour.

Dale Kasler
Quoting 66. KwajAlien:

Huh...where is Oklahoma's Senator Inhofe and his equally silly snowball now?

He is probably voting for it not to melt.
Grothar for President 2020. He was there for the first Democracy in Athens, maybe he can fix this one.
we really are in a state now.....the jets have been off of a year or so now havent they?
I suspect this is why our rainy season in the western carib have been dwindling to nothing.
Republicans are proposing a carbon tax, which is great news, simply because it is being championed from the conservatives, even if it's an old idea. Hopefully this gains traction in the Republican party...

Link
Quoting 71. weathermanwannabe:

In spite of all of the weather issues around, Happy Valentine's Day to the Bloggers with close loved ones and do not forget them; leaving early today to make preps so the Wife does not have to cook this evening.................See Yall Tomorrow.


Does the same hold true for those of us that do not have "close loved ones"? :(
Quoting 43. Xandra:

From the Miami Herald:

Coastal Everglades, deprived of fresh water, near unhealthy ‘tipping point’

SHARK RIVER – At the bottom of the Everglades along the mouth of the Shark River, a towering mangrove forest stands in a place few people outside anglers and researchers ever see: at the edge of a vast shallow bay where the salty sea and freshwater marshes conspired to erect a cathedral of trees.

In the current fight over restoration, this isolated region often gets overlooked. While Lake Okeechobee pollution to the north grabs headlines and gets the attention of Florida lawmakers, it’s actually here where damage may be most profound.

For the last 16 years, nearly 80 scientists and their students from 29 organizations — including all the state’s major universities, the National Park Service and the South Florida Water Management District — have embarked on one of the longest and largest studies ever conducted on South Florida’s coastal Everglades. They now fear the system may be at what lead investigator Evelyn Gaiser calls a “tipping point,” where change is happening faster than scientists expected and spinning into a self-perpetuating cycle of decline.

The mangroves ringing the coast are moving inland, overtaking vital freshwater marshes. Growing swathes of peat, the rich mucky soil that formed over a few thousand years, are collapsing. And periphyton, the spongy brown mats of native algae that form the foundation of the food chain, is shrinking.

Aside from losing one of the planet’s rarest ecosystems, changes happening in the system could also have global consequences, damaging one of the region’s main defenses against climate change fueled by greenhouse gases.

“The threat here is we’re changing the system from one that is very good at sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,” said Gaiser, a Florida International University aquatic ecologist, “to one that’s very rapidly losing it.”

Click here to read more




Having grown up there, and seeing what it has become - nothing makes me more sad than to read that. Especially since it is very well known what could have (could be still?) done to fix the issues.
Been raining on and off since last night... 34F today, supposed to get up to 40F, then below freezing at night...

Video: Repairs to Oroville Dam Spillway on Tuesday, February 14
KCRA helicopter reporter describes what has happened overnight as state officials and crews work to repair the Oroville Dam Spillway on Tuesday, February 14.
Published 7 minutes ago
Quoting 75. DeepSeaRising:

Grothar for President 2020. He was there for the first Democracy in Athens, maybe he can fix this one.


Grothar for President in 2017! We may not have until 2020 when you consider the pace that Trump is making on moving us back to the 1940's.
Quoting 79. daddyjames:



Does the same hold true for those of us that do not have "close loved ones"? :(


Some of my loved ones are far away too.
Quoting 78. Treehorn:

Republicans are proposing a carbon tax, which is great news, simply because it is being championed from the conservatives, even if it's an old idea. Hopefully this gains traction in the Republican party...

Link


The old Republican guard is proposing the carbon tax. The new Republican guard will not hear of it.
Video of possible tornado damage in Stafford, Texas

Link
Quoting 85. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The old Republican guard is proposing the carbon tax. The new Republican guard will not hear of it.


Agree, but I'll take any positive development at this point. A couple of those guys are still very relevant in policy discussion among the GOP, especially Mankiw.
thanks for the update great read as always.

hasten the pace
faster and faster
What California’s Dam Crisis Says About the Changing Climate
New York Times, By NOAH S. DIFFENBAUGHFEB. 14, 2017
(...) The recent drought has highlighted the pressure that a changing climate puts on a snowpack-dependent water system. With the shift toward more rain rather than snow, and the earlier melting of the snowpack, water managers need to release water more frequently for flood control. This dynamic is playing out in Oroville now, with the state’s water managers racing to empty water from the dam’s reservoir in advance of storms forecast to arrive Wednesday. Because these storms are relatively warm, they are likely to bring rain to the surrounding mountains, speeding the flow of water behind the dam. (...)
Whole article see link above.
I'm not a hydrologist, but this seems excessive.
Quoting 90. TimSoCal:

I'm not a hydrologist, but this seems excessive.


Yikes, that is almost double the 2.14 that is now forecast herePedleyCA
It was 1.64 last night and went up about 25%, I thought I had a Gully Washer. If that happens, shit it going to be hitting the fan.
Quoting 92. PedleyCA:


Yikes, that is almost double the 2.14 that is now forecast herePedleyCA
It was 1.64 last night and went up about 25%, I thought I had a Gully Washer. If that happens, shit it going to be hitting the fan.

It said 1.92 last night. Not sure why the sudden massive increase. But it would explain why my building management has been putting sandbags around the courtyard. The pool area flooded during the last big storm in Jan, and it even got into some units.
Quoting 67. nashvillebill:


https://www.metabunk.org/data/MetaMirrorCache/643 9c91eddf0be4edd2950162c3acba0.jpg

Embarrassed to ask but how does one post the link above as an image? I tried entering the url into the little image icon of the mountain and sun on the blog tools but without success... sorry I am not very blog savvy.
Current moonrise in the plains of Rhine-Main with Frankfurt City center-right (near my place), seen by a new foto-webcam from Feldberg/Taunus :-)))


Click the pic to enlarge. Temperature readings from this place available, too.

As from another world: same current moonrise behind the construction side on Germany's highest mountain in the Alps, Zugspitze:


Click to enlarge. Source: foto-webcam.eu

You see, splendid and quite warm weather in Germany. Later this week the Atlantic should send some precipitation though, which would be welcomed by the plants as we are in a drought.
With this a good night, folks.
comment 67

if image you are posting has https the s must be removed so its http instead
Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

if image you are posting has https the s must be removed so its http instead


Thank you!
First clear close up view of the erosion I've seen.
Quoting 98. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

comment 67




Mother nature had better ideas then B Young. Reminds me of engineers I went to deal with that don't take into account anything outside of there tunnel vision (IE 1000 extra feet of parking lot that I would consider a spillway). The spillway footing in the upper right looks suspect lol
Butte County Sheriff’s Office to Reduce Immediate Evacuation Order to Evacuation Warning
Due to lower lake levels, further inspections, ongoing work to shore-up the Oroville Dam emergency spillway and updated weather forecasts, effective at 1:00 p.m. today, the Evacuation Order for the Oroville Dam Spillway Incident has been reduced to an Evacuation Warning. Any resident displaced by the evacuation may return home at 1:00 p.m.; however all residents are advised to remain vigilant and prepared as conditions can rapidly change. People who have special needs or require extended time to evacuate should consider remaining evacuated.


Link

Quoting 102. civEngineer:


And that is the nature of the solid bedrock on which that project is built. What to do???What to do???
108. vis0
In NYC i'm seeing fully budding plants yet there is 6 inches of snow around them (REMINDER, MIDDLE OF WINTER is where NYC is at)...soon plants will learn to grow upside since it will be cooler under ground and too humid above ground...trees to follow seems humorous till  tractors have to pick the fruits/veggies and till the soil from underground upwards.

BBrian how does one say February in the "ancient" language(s) you've posted
Quoting 107. LowerCal:

With three stunning photos...
The enormous scale of the erosion problem at the Oroville Dam site - The Landslide Blog - AGU Blogosphere
There and other places, people seem to be missing the point still. The "emergency spillway" will be "used" if the water level reaches its crest (and if it is any time soon, essentially "game over"). The "main spillway" is much closer to the dam, and if the erosion beside and under it reaches the top of the hill it will remove the spillway and weaken the hillside against which the dam is buttressed. But the lake will drain very rapidly, removing pressure from the dam. However, at that point the dam is a decoration on the landscape -- they can not replace the two spillways on that "bedrock" and refill the lake. Continued use of the main spillway to lower the lake or prevent overtopping the emergency spillway will cause the erosion to continue, and I see no way to prevent it undermining the rest of the way up. As I said before it is a "lose-lose" situation. (Edit) And if there should chance to be a moderate earthquake near there, God help them. A bit of seiche might take it out as it is now.
Robert Rohde:
‏@rarohde

Warm start to 2017. Globally, January was 0.96 ± 0.05 C above 1951-1980 average. 2nd warmest Jan. since 1850, behind 2016.




The warm start to 2017, slightly above the 2016 average, increases the odds that 2017 could challenge for warmest year.

Quoting 7. ILwthrfan:

Post #1 Elioe.

Noticed the HWRF brings him up to 100 knots. Landfall forecast calls for 75 knots minimum. Very small compact storm. The smaller they are the more chaotic the forecasting can become with them.

Population density map of Mozambique as of year 2000. Later data source, but still shows wide area of 25-250 people per square kilometer all along the southern coastline.



Southern 1/3 of the country is mainly grasslands within a rather flat topography.



The main city that I gather from this map in the projected path is Inhambane population 66,000 (2007]







if the map I am looking at is correct.. Massinga district near Inhambane province is forecast by RSMC Seychelles/Madagascar to have winds of about 105-110 mph in 24 hours (85 knots/10 mins). This location, 23.3S 35.6E, appears to be just offshore of Mozambique.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
More
Snowfall in DC in 2016-17 ranks among top 10 least snowy winters on record, season-to-date
Quoting 106. CaneFreeCR:

And that is the nature of the solid bedrock on which that project is built. What to do???What to do???


The bedrock is described as “hard amphibolite”, is probably fine. The erosion we've seen is just top soil and loose cobble washing away wearing down to said bedrock. The problem is that it appears they didn't excavate the emergency spillway to the to the bedrock and anchor to it.

https://kb.osu.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/1811/5 8502/SES-SeniorThesis_AndersonDennisM_1976_text.pd f?sequence=4
Quoting 110. Xandra:

Robert Rohde:
‏@rarohde

Warm start to 2017. Globally, January was 0.96 ± 0.05 C above 1951-1980 average. 2nd warmest Jan. since 1850, behind 2016.




The warm start to 2017, slightly above the 2016 average, increases the odds that 2017 could challenge for warmest year.




There comes a time in the affairs of man when he must take the bull by the tail and face the situation.

W. C. Fields

Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
More
Snowfall in DC in 2016-17 ranks among top 10 least snowy winters on record, season-to-date


Maybe next year will make up for it. We are about average in Anchorage last time I checked - maybe a hair over average.

Lowercal - Great video, thanks for posting it.
117. flsky
Thanks for this. Very informative.

Quoting 115. LowerCal:


Quoting 115. LowerCal:


Good video, I have to think that a sudden collapse of the emergency spillway may be enough to blow out both the lower forebay and afterbay. Also there is a large bypass just north of Sacramento that is called the Yolo Bypass that diverts a lot of water away from the city.
So I checked and we are 5" - 7" above normal for snowfall this year. On average we would have gotten 55" inches and it's tough to read the chart, but it's a tad over 60". Which means to stay average of above we should get another foot or so before this winter is over...

Quoting 115. LowerCal:


One extremely tiny nitpick with Mike Bettes' presentation at 3:05. The Feather River flows into the Sacramento River upstream from Sacramento. The Feather River does not become the Sacramento River in Sacramento. Link
Quoting 113. civEngineer:



The erosion we've seen is just top soil and loose cobble washing away wearing down to said bedrock. The problem is that it appears they didn't excavate the emergency spillway to the to the bedrock and anchor to it.

I don't think so. The photo you posted in #102 *is* the local bedrock - looks like a highly fractured amphibolite - and the emergency spillway weir was built directly on it. The water flow of a few days ago caused plucking, and development of gullies that quickly eroded headward nearly to the base of the weir. Even if they had drilled and grouted the bedrock below the footing, that style of erosion IMHO will be a huge danger to the weir if they ever have to run water over it again, no matter how much concrete and bags of rocks they stuff into the gully heads.
 
Old English word of the day: ge-coren - chosen, choice, good, beloved, dear. Pronounced "yeh-ko-rehn"

Mīn gecorena - my beloved. Pronounced "meen yeh-ko-rehn-ah"
Amazing but not unprecedented, the 99F temp at the OK mesonet station near Mangum OK last week. The temp tied a statewide record set February 24, 1918.


Amazing observations surrounding that high 99 degree temp Saturday Feb 11, 2017 near Mangum, OK : The temp went from 41 at 0745, with a Southwind gusting to 40 mph, to 99 at 1440, down into the 60s by evening and back to 43ish by 0745 Sunday morning under the influence of a North wind gusting in the 30s (source OK mesonet Mangum meteogram which I reviewed and posted in a comment here Sunday.) BTW, half inch of snow fell near Mangum today - meaning this temp was not a sustained situation.

Amazing what wind can do to surface temps when there is very little moisture in the air.

Amazing, but you know Texans... Mangum was not actually the hottest in the lower 48. A town in Texas hit 100. (source: NCEP)

Good try but, like a lot of other wildly exaggerated weather events, when one examines it in context, one discovers mountains and molehills are two different things. This 99 temp, tying a record from 99 years ago, wasn't even a molehill.
History trivia: Inhambane is the site of the furthest south settlement by Arab sailors and traders on the east coast of Africa before the arrival of the Portuguese.

Quelimane had a Chinese quarter in the 15th century--the furthest south settlement by Chinese traders in the pre-European period.
Quoting 122. no1der:


I don't think so. The photo you posted in #102 *is* the local bedrock - looks like a highly fractured amphibolite - and the emergency spillway weir was built directly on it. The water flow of a few days ago caused plucking, and development of gullies that quickly eroded headward nearly to the base of the weir. Even if they had drilled and grouted the bedrock below the footing, that style of erosion IMHO will be a huge danger to the weir if they ever have to run water over it again, no matter how much concrete and bags of rocks they stuff into the gully heads.
 
I also have wondered whether anyone is looking at the outwash from the erosion below the spillway -- there was a LOT of gold taken out just upstream from there 150 years ago and later, and there might even be enough gold revealed by the erosion to pay for the repairs now underway -- wouldn't that be ironic?

Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

Old English word of the day: ge-coren - chosen, choice, good, beloved, dear. Pronounced "yeh-ko-rehn"

Mīn gecorena - my beloved. Pronounced "meen yeh-ko-rehn-ah"
Past participle of OE 'cheosan' - to choose
/pedantic :-)
128. vis0

Quoting 11. NativeSun:

It's summer in Australia, and it does get very hot their, yes it has been warm this winter, so what, it will get cool again, just like the droughts in Texas a few years ago, and California now. They didn't last long like a lot of the so called experts were stating at the time, and like a lot of the so called expert bloggers on here were stating too. Why not post about the sever weather in Texas and the South?

FIRST::
Did NativeSun say "They didn't last long like a lot of the so called experts were stating at the time"
Prediction was 3 years it lasted ~5 years and science is still trying to understand the RRR(redux) + warm blob that was west of Washington state (really thought one day skeptics where going to say early in that warmer blob "cycle" that it was a popular Whale fluid releasing area, as in run away from the warmer water adjacent to the little boy in the pool joke.

Second::
When i posted as to the severe weather in Texas last year (as a 2nd 1 in 500 year flooding event happening within 8 months and right after a long severe drought in THAT N/NW Tx. area) ) a member by the same Nativesun name complained that why not post as to another areas cooler readings.

Third:
PS
by Nativesun's explanation it going to be an outright arctic blast when the Denver area after Tuesday (today)  in a week or more after HIGHs in the 60s that area goes down to a bone-chillin 40F as a HIGH, goodness forbid.

 

BTW let Mr Henson know to check on that "creature" that was under the staircase railing under snow a year or so ago, Mr. Henson might have to get a spatula and flip it over so its well done on both sides if it stays in the same spot and in the 60s and Sunny for long.

 

Also if a few weeks Colorado has a big snowstorm remember its not the cold balancing the over-warmth  that adds more moisture to create more snow its the more moisture in the atmosphere that adds more moisture to create lots of snow.

WEATHER RELATED::
be it more drier and warmer or more wetter (snowier) and warmer it happens when the atmosphere is holding in more greenhouse gases.
Quoting 122. no1der:


Definitely agree with that last stentence, my niece was evacuated from Yuba City, I told her to watch the water levels and if the main spillway can't keep up with the inflows GET OUT regardless of anything they say.

But the first part, I agree the 102 picture shows bedrock but what is the evidence that anything above that which got washed away was consolidated parts of the bedrock and not loose topsoil and cobbles? Bedrock is rarely uniform it too has ridges and gullies. Recall this hillside was covered in oak trees (deep rooted) and shrubs before hand which don't typically grow on rock right below the ground. There must have been some layer of topsoil above the bedrock.

Also, There are certainly methods to anchor in a structure such as that that would be plenty sufficient like blasting a key-way and drilling into the bedrock such that you can get below the top stuff that is friable and subject to plucking but from the drawing I posted below they didn't specify any of that.
Quoting 126. CaneFreeCR:

I also have wondered whether anyone is looking at the outwash from the erosion below the spillway -- there was a LOT of gold taken out just upstream from there 150 years ago and later, and there might even be enough gold revealed by the erosion to pay for the repairs now underway -- wouldn't that be ironic?
It could foster a different kind of "undermining" problem though. :^)
Quoting 127. no1der:

Past participle of OE 'cheosan' - to choose
/pedantic :-)
*tips hat* :)
Quoting 118. civEngineer:


The Feather River is joined by the sizeable Yuba River drainage just south of Marysville/Yuba City. This now-massive Feather River joins the Sacramento River north of the Sacramento airport. Farther south in the Sierra, the American River system drains into the Sacramento River near downtown City of Sacramento.
Quoting 129. Gearsts:


Looks like the burn areas down south here might see some serious erosion.

Still a sketchy outlook for the Oroville reservoir.
Quoting 124. StormDrain:

Amazing but not unprecedented, the 99F temp at the OK mesonet station near Mangum OK last week. The temp tied a statewide record set February 24, 1918.


Amazing observations surrounding that high 99 degree temp Saturday Feb 11, 2017 near Mangum, OK : The temp went from 41 at 0745, with a Southwind gusting to 40 mph, to 99 at 1440, down into the 60s by evening and back to 43ish by 0745 Sunday morning under the influence of a North wind gusting in the 30s (source OK mesonet Mangum meteogram which I reviewed and posted in a comment here Sunday.) BTW, half inch of snow fell near Mangum today - meaning this temp was not a sustained situation.

Amazing what wind can do to surface temps when there is very little moisture in the air.

Amazing, but you know Texans... Mangum was not actually the hottest in the lower 48. A town in Texas hit 100. (source: NCEP)

Good try but, like a lot of other wildly exaggerated weather events, when one examines it in context, one discovers mountains and molehills are two different things. This 99 temp, tying a record from 99 years ago, wasn't even a molehill.
As was explained on Sunday, while the 99 reading at Magnum was not unprecedented. it was extremely rare, which is the fairest way to describe something that has so far happened, as you've just noted, roughly once per century. That may be little more than just a meteorological "molehill" in the eyes of some, but it's nonetheless very much a big deal.
Quoting 136. hydrus:

I imagine they tried to save the library at Alexandria too, but were to late...Greetings Geoff..


Yeah, but they stuck with Palm oil instead of wesson and look what happened hydrus.


Silly Humans


Quoting 223. Grothar:

I Think you Will Infer something from This.
True :) Did you like how the 4th letter in every line of the comment spelled out a message? Steganography :)
What a difference a few hours make. The Houston area was under solid, thick cloud cover this morning. We had moderate winds, with some less than moderate wind gusts. We had some heavy rain and tornadic activity in the area this morning and into the early afternoon. Currently the skies are nearly void of clouds, there is a slight wind and it is about 10 degrees cooler now than it was this morning. As it turns out, my Camaro would have made the trip to work and back without any issues. Still, the truck was the logical choice to make this morning. The Camaro lives for another day. :)
Quoting 130. civEngineer:
But the first part, I agree the 102 picture shows bedrock but what is the evidence that anything above that which got washed away was consolidated parts of the bedrock and not loose topsoil and cobbles? Bedrock is rarely uniform it too has ridges and gullies. Recall this hillside was covered in oak trees (deep rooted) and shrubs before hand which don't typically grow on rock right below the ground. There must have been some layer of topsoil above the bedrock.

Link

You posted a detail of this photo in #101. (sorry can't hotlink to the photo itself on the Dept. Water Resources site)
The engineers are standing on thin soil and regolith but along the footing of the weir you can see several bedrock exposures. The trees were further downslope. 
Quoting 138. BaltimoreBrian:

True :) Did you like how the 4th letter in every line of the comment spelled out a message? Steganography :)


I'll have to look that up in my "Stegosaurus".
Quoting 142. Grothar:



I'll have to look that up in my "Stegosaurus".


It is standing next to you. It is still taking notes for you. ;)
It's back again or in the forecast anyway. I missed out totally on the last storm. The last storm, the rain stopped at the north San Diego County border and we got squat.......let's see what happens with this one.


A storm system will move through Southern California late Thursday night through Saturday. Heavy precipitation and strong, damaging winds are expected for some areas.

And a link to a Soo Cal Hydrology Report.
Link


145. MahFL
Quoting 65. weathermanwannabe:

They did a story yesterday on the CBS evening news on the "crack" on one of the Antarctic ice shelves that could result in large berg the size of Delaware breaking away and melting out at some point...........I could post a link but a picture is worth a few thousand words:








I believe this is not actually that crack, the pic was falsely posted as such a few weeks ago.
146. MahFL
Quoting 67. nashvillebill:



That's not a crane, that's a cement pump, used to pump cement slurry into areas a normal cement truck cannot reach.


It's going to take a lot of pumping to fill that hole up.
Quoting 145. MahFL:



I believe this is not actually that crack, the pic was falsely posted as such a few weeks ago.


Is it the remnants of the last Iditarod?


From Nasa


Link
Quoting 148. Grothar:



From Nasa


Link

That's some kinda crack ya have there Gro!
Quoting 145. MahFL:



I believe this is not actually that crack, the pic was falsely posted as such a few weeks ago.

From NASA Earth Observatory: "These photographs show close and wide views of the rift from the vantage point of NASA’s DC-8 research aircraft"
Well done, Xandra & Grothar.
Quoting 129. Gearsts:



Quoting 154. Abacosurf:



The small shift in distribution looks much worse for Oroville reservoir.
today is valentines day interlude


Quoting 108. vis0:

In NYC i'm seeing fully budding plants yet there is 6 inches of snow around them (REMINDER, MIDDLE OF WINTER is where NYC is at


Quoting 141. no1der:


Correct there appears to be non uniform uplift and gullies in the bedrock which one should expect in the hills and regolith/topsoil deposited in the gullies. So if they simply excavated the emergency spillway to an elevation per the plans as the plans I posted seem to indicate rather than specifying that they excavate to bedrock for the entire length of the spillway then the spillway would only be set on bedrock for some sections and would have regolith and topsoil underlain in the remaining sections. Admittedly what I had posted was only one sheet from the planset but generally one wouldn't have conflicting design criteria from one sheet to the next.

Also a contractor wouldn't make the extra effort above and beyond what the engineer planset required, so if the plans said excavate to X depth and form up a structure you can bet that is what they did.

Here is a picture of the dam shortly after it was finished with possibly the inaugural ceremony taking place. Notice how the spillway area on either side seems to be a level plane?

Quoting 147. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Is it the remnants of the last Iditarod?


Due to poor snow and trail conditions, the Iditarod start was moved to Fairbanks. Global warming is taking its toll on this historically important to commemorate race. It has only been moved a handful of times to Fairbanks and last two have been in the last few years. Scary that there isn't enough snow in Alaska to race sled dogs.
Meanwhile here in coastal New England we've had 40 inches of snow in less than two weeks. I've defined this as a "snowmageddon" and it is the second time in three winters (also in 2014-2015). Such an outbreak transforms the entire winter which until now had seen small amounts of snow that then melted away in recurring mild spells.
Quoting 161. boboncape:

Meanwhile here in coastal New England we've had 40 inches of snow in less than two weeks. I've defined this as a "snowmageddon" and it is the second time in three winters (also in 2014-2015). Such an outbreak transforms the entire winter which until now had seen small amounts of snow that then melted away in recurring mild spells.


Last two winters was like that in Alaska, this winter some areas (like Anchorage) are about average for snowfall, but again, it comes all at once. We were WAY below average and then were brought up back to average in a weekend... I feel your pain.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
Hurricane Warning
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE DINEO (05-20162017)
10:00 AM RET February 15 2017
==============================
East Of Mozambique

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dineo (979 hPa) located at 22.9S 37.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants, and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 23.1S 35.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 23.0S 33.8E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre) Overland Mozambique
48 HRS 21.7S 29.1E - 15 knots (Depression sur Terre) Overland Zimbabwe

Additional Information
======================
Over the past six hours, the convective band finished to wrap around Dineo's center but the warm spot temporarily depicted by the infrared images quickly disappeared. The 0342z SSMIS microwave data confirm that convection is slowly returning to the western semi-circle but the convection ring visible on the 91ghz images remains open. With no clear improvement of the cloud pattern, the system intensity is maintained to the maximum stage of severe tropical storm.

Dineo is still heading west southwestward on the northwestern edge of a mid-level subtropical ridge. During the next hours, the strengthening of a ridge over South Africa should steer the system a bit more westwards. The landfall on the Mozambican coastline is still forecast this evening, around 1800z. The spread amongst the numerical weather prediction guidance shows a very good agreement and suggest a landfall area north of Inhambane.

After a warming of the cloud tops, a new convective burst occurred near the center and also begins to wrap around the center on the last infrared images, which suggest that the intensification should continue in the next hours. Further more, given the conducive upper environment (weak shear and good divergence aloft) and the very thick layer of warm water on the track, a strong deepening is still expected before landfall. By this evening, Dineo may become a very dangerous tropical cyclone for the Inhambane region.

The threat is now effective for the Mozambique coasts where the storm surge is estimated at 1 meter. In the bay of Inhambane, the surge could reach 2 meters in the case of the most southward track in the uncertainty cone. Beware that this value do not take into account the tide effect nor the set-up of the swell. The total storm surge amplitude at Inhambane will depend on the timing with the high tide, which for now is coinciding with the time of the landfall.
Quoting 126. CaneFreeCR:

I also have wondered whether anyone is looking at the outwash from the erosion below the spillway -- there was a LOT of gold taken out just upstream from there 150 years ago and later, and there might even be enough gold revealed by the erosion to pay for the repairs now underway -- wouldn't that be ironic?

|: Blow, boys, blow, for Californio,
There's plenty of gold, so I am told,
On the banks of Sacramento.:|


Good morning folks. The lyrics above were probably the first words ever I've learned in English as a little child :-)) I just loved to sing them as they stimulated imagination, and, moreover, little girls fancy glitter. The lyric is part of a German-English shanty (back then I had no idea of the meaning of the rest of the song, lol):

Wikipedia (whole lyrics in translation see here as well):'De Hamborger Veermaster' (Standard German: 'Der Hamburger Viermaster', English: Hamburg's four-master) is a famous sea shanty sung in Low German, presumably first published between 1850 and 1890. It is partly in English (an adaptation of the shanty 'The Banks of the Sacramento') and partly in Low German. ...

If you like to listen to this shanty, below a youtube - with best wishes to "Californio", lol:

Blaue Jungs Bremerhaven - Hamborger Veermaster 2002
Dineo this morning:




Click ...


Glacial “Aftershock” Spawns Antarctic Iceberg
NASA Earth observatory, February 15, 2017



Drought Turns to Deluge in California

NASA Earth Observatory, February 14, 2017
Dineo's landfall postponed to midnight/early hours of thursday, trending further north than expected which is positive (less densely populated there):



Nice animation here.
MJO is projected to go even wider on this part of the world the next few days than what was expected a week or so ago..
Environment Pollution in Nigeria on February 15 2017 04:23 AM (UTC).

Nigeria declared an air pollution emergency in a major southern city on Tuesday and closed an asphalt plant there after residents complained about the fumes from its furnaces, in a country plagued by corruption and poor governance. Residents staged a protest in Port Harcourt, a harbor city in the oil-producing Niger Delta region, waving their hands in the air to show the soot stains from touching cars. "The Federal Ministry of Environment has declared the air pollution in Port Harcourt an emergency situation and has subsequently issued a notice to temporarily shut down an asphalt processing plant...belching out thick smoke," the government said in a statement. It did not name the firm, but a state government statement said it was from China. "If I am having my bath, the color of the water, the stains on the sink are always black," businessman Charles Adolor said. "Before we can use already-washed plates we have to rewash them again." Adolor and his wife and son have been wearing face masks inside their apartment to protect themselves from the soot that covers everything from the windows to the bathroom. In the Niger Delta's oil-producing swamps, residents complain about crude spills from broken or blown-up pipelines and acid rain from gas flaring, the burning of natural gas at oil wells. Under British colonial rule, Port Harcourt was known as a "Garden City" due to its green parks, but a rapidly growing population has congested its pot-holed roads and cramped its residential quarters.

Biological Hazard in USA on February 15 2017 04:17 AM (UTC).

Bees are in trouble these days. Sadly, they keep finding new and disturbing ways to die en masse. The latest oddity comes from the sunny beaches of Florida. At Lowdermilk Park Beach in Naples, Fla., beachgoers recently began complaining of being stung on their feet as they walked the beach. It quickly became clear that thousands of bees were washing up on shore, either dead or dying. At first, beach visitors didn't realize the bees where even there. It took a few stings on the feet to make them realize something unusual was going on. "It's just really between the water and the sand. I've been stung a couple of times, and at first, I didn't know what it was, and then I realized, and then I had an allergic reaction," beachgoer Martha Duff told NBC2. No one knows why there are suddenly thousands of bees rolling up onto the sand from the ocean. It's not a common occurrence, though it has happened before. Some believe pesticide spray might have forced them out over the water. Another theory surmises that the bees found themselves over water when they became too tired to keep flying, and just went into the sea. However it happened, it couldn't have come at a worse time for bees. Bees pollinate many of the crops we use for food. If they're suddenly unable to do that, crops like coffee beans, limes, apples, blueberries, cranberries, cashews, beets, onions, broccoli, cabbage, kiwi, brussels sprouts, chestnuts, watermelons, cucumber, fennel, strawberries, macadamia, mangoes, apricots, almonds and more could disappear from our plates.
The forming of an eye is imminent:




Quoting 167. EmsiNasklug:

Dineo's landfall postponed to midnight/early hours of thursday, ...


Btw, this is the real Zulu time!


173. elioe
Quoting 172. EmsiNasklug:



I also observe Zulu time ;)

Any eye formation, or other sign of intensification, is not picked up by ADT yet.

Climate change: Scientists sad, frustrated as extreme weather becomes the new norm

Call it fatigue, call it frustration, but some of the best brains in the country are fed up.

Australia's leading climate scientists joined their New Zealand counterparts in Canberra for a four-day conference last week, but dark clouds lingered over their discussions.

The theme of the conference was "Australasian weather, climate and oceans: past, present and future".

And global warming was never far from the guests' lips.

"There is definitely what you would call 'climate fatigue' on the part of scientists," said Dr Andrew Glikson, from the Australian National University's School of Archaeology and Anthropology.

"There were hundreds of scientists there, and my impression is while we continue to do the science as best we can, there is a fatigue when it comes to arguing in public.
"It's definitely a concern. There are people who don't think in scientific terms and don't want to accept the basic laws of nature, or have some vested interest.

"You can explain to them as long as you like but if they don't wish to understand, they won't."


Link

From UCI:

Canadian glaciers now major contributor to sea level change, UCI study shows

Nine times more ice is melting annually due to warmer temperatures


Irvine, Calif., Feb. 14, 2017 — Ice loss from Canada’s Arctic glaciers has transformed them into a major contributor to sea level change, new research by University of California, Irvine glaciologists has found.

From 2005 to 2015, surface melt off ice caps and glaciers of the Queen Elizabeth Islands grew by an astonishing 900 percent, from an average of three gigatons to 30 gigatons per year, according to results published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters.


UCI / Jennie Brewton

“In the past decade, as air temperatures have warmed, surface melt has increased dramatically,” said lead author Romain Millan, an Earth system science doctoral student.

The team found that in the past decade, overall ice mass declined markedly, turning the region into a major contributor to sea level change. Canada holds 25 percent of all Arctic ice, second only to Greenland.

The study provides the first long-term analysis of ice flow to the ocean, from 1991 to 2015.

Click here to read more.
Why researchers are hunting killer whales in the Antarctic

In this latest installment of the “Climate Diaries” series, CBS News correspondent Mark Phillips is in Antarctica, following a group of researchers chasing killer whales. They are using new technology, including drones, to learn about the health of the ocean’s top predator. Phillips shows us how the Antarctic Ocean’s dwellers are experiencing the effects of climate change.


Link
Good Morning. Most of the severe weather yesterday unfolded in Texas and thankfully the squall line died down as it headed East in terms of any tornadoes............It missed us to our South in the Florida Big Bend; we had a 90% chance of t-storms into this morning but they never materialized and the sun is out. In terms of Conus, more rain headed inbound into California.

yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic

And here is the big picture on Dineo: not very often that we see a tropical storm "arriving" in Africa from the Indian Ocean as opposed to the tropical waves during the Atlantic season leaving Africa towards the Caribbean.........................It's headed into Mozambique.


On february 5, 2017, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary November, 2016 global methane mean - a new high of 1852.6 ppb.

Strong to Super El-Nino yet again possibly later this Summer into Fall. I don't think we've ever seen back to back years with this strong of an El-Nino.



8 days so far above 80 this February in Orlando and the other days that we didn't hit 80 we were in the 75 to 78 range. If this keeps up we will set a record for the warmest February on record in Orlando.
Quoting 178. nrtiwlnvragn:




I can see the dry air entrapment signature on that pass, but at the same time outside that one exception the storm looks to be still organizing.

HWRF still insists on intensifying this right up to landfall, all be it, it only shows 80 knots today versus 100 knots yesterday.


imagine source: tropicaltidbits
Some of the GFS Ensembles are showing 6" to 10" of rain across FL the next 2 weeks most of this is coming from a cut off low that is expected to move along the Gulf Coast next week. Something to watch as the CMC is agreeing with the GFS Ensembles. Texas to FL could be in for a deluge early to mid next week.

6" to 10" of rain across FL the next 2 weeks

Bring it on!

Awful dry in my part to the state. Below normal rainfall every month since June of last year with the exception of Sept.
Here are the specific regions to be impacted by Dineo: a Cat 1 at landfall; thankfully.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/tropi cal-cyclone-dineo-bears-madagascar-170214095543667 .htmlDineo is now forecast to strengthen quickly over the next 36 hours before making landfall over southern Mozambique on Thursday. The storm is then expected to bring flooding rains into the northeast of South Africa by the weekend.Tropical Cyclone Dineo is currently 130km to the west of Europa Island. Sustained winds are around 100 gusting to 130km per hour.Weather conditions in the channel are a perfect breeding ground for the storm to intensify. Sea surface temperatures off the west coast of Madagascar are just over 30 degrees Celsius. This is where we have the bulk of the thunderstorms.That temperature is well in excess of the 27C required for tropical systems to develop and grow. Indeed, Dineo is expected to peak with winds around 120 gusting 150km/h on Wednesday.That would make it equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale for Atlantic hurricanes. Although it will not be a particularly powerful storm, there is likely to be some wind damage.There is rather more certainty that the rains will be heavy enough to cause widespreadflooding. Current projections take the cyclone towards Inhambane in southern Mozambique late on Wednesday before spreading torrential downpours into South Africa's Kruger National Park two days later.The storm is likely to have dissipated by the time it reaches South Africa. However, it will take much longer for the flooding rains within the warm, moist air to clear away.
Quoting 185. Wacahootaman:

6" to 10" of rain across FL the next 2 weeks

Bring it on!

Awful dry in my part to the state. Below normal rainfall every month since June of last year with the exception of Sept.


A lot of that hinges on this cut off low next week that is expected to move across the Gulf. Does it weaken/fill in or does it keep its intensity as it comes across is the question right now. If it stays strong and moves slow this could be a solid rain maker for FL mid next week.
UN warns of catastrophic dam failure in Syria battle
by Reuters, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 11:33 GMT
GENEVA, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The United Nations is warning of catastrophic flooding in Syria from the Tabqa dam, which is at risk from high water levels, deliberate sabotage by Islamic State (IS) and further damage from air strikes by the U.S.-led coalition.
The earth-filled dam holds back the the Euphrates River 40 km (25 miles) upstream of the IS stronghold of Raqqa and has been controlled by IS since 2014.
Water levels on the river have risen by about 10 metres since Jan. 24, due partly to heavy rainfall and snow and partly to IS opening three turbines of the dam, flooding riverside areas downstream, according to a U.N. report seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
"As per local experts, any further rise of the water level would submerge huge swathes of agricultural land along the river and could potentially damage the Tabqa Dam, which would have catastrophic humanitarian implications in all areas downstream," it said.
The entrance to the dam was already damaged by airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition, it said. ...
The U.N. has also warned of the danger of a collapse of the Mosul dam on the Tigris River in Iraq, which could affect 20 million people. The dam was briefly captured by IS in 2014, but remains at risk, with constant repairs needed to avoid disaster. ...

More see link above.
Quoting 185. Wacahootaman:

6" to 10" of rain across FL the next 2 weeks

Bring it on!

Awful dry in my part to the state. Below normal rainfall every month since June of last year with the exception of Sept.


Dry here too BTW. We did have a above normal January precip wise though across NW Orlando. 3.30" at my location in January.
And here is the wind/surge forecast from one of the South African News sites:
http://www.enca.com/south-africa/descending -tropical-storm-dineo-to-hit-mozambique-first





ENSO outlooks
Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely for the remainder of the southern hemisphere summer and into autumn. However, all models indicate the central Pacific is likely to warm over the coming months, with some reaching El Niño thresholds in winter. This suggests ENSO-neutral or El Niño are the most likely scenarios for the second half of 2017.
It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20162017
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DINEO)
2.A POSITION 2017/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX
DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT

Link

A classic example of "proxy records" -

Ancient Judean Jars Offer Insights Into Earth's Magnetic Field Strength -

In ancient Judea, potters often created jars big enough to hold wine or olive oil and sent them to kings as tax payment.
Even as rulers came and went over the years, potters kept making the same ceramic jars. Little did they know, however, that their creations would someday contribute to science.
Indeed, these 3,000-year-old ancient jars provide some clues into the strength of Earth's magnetic field, a new study in Israel revealed. It's as if the jars themselves hold records of the waning and fluctuating strength of the magnetic field over time, researchers said.

- See more at: Link
Dineo------Nguni name from Southern Africa, meaning "gift."

Amazing isn't it how much a gift -- COSTS----

The SAWS.... Says Dineo will continue to intensify and could be up to 160km/h when it strikes the coast. This will bring possibly a damaging storm surge that will push inland, and also heavy rain will accompany Dineo as it pushes further inland.
Exercise Pacific Wave 17

Excerpt:

Exercise Pacific Wave 2017 (PacWave17) will take place during the period 15-17 February 2017. The exercise intends to support the development of improved tsunami products and procedures, including the Enhanced Products of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) and the Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center (NWPTAC) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). PacWave17 will include multiple scenarios to enable all Member States to select a distant or regional event that will cause the greatest impact to their country.

15.02.2017: The wind has picked up significantly in the Inhambane area where tropical cyclone Dineo is expected to hit later tonight.

Dineo seen developing into cyclone, nears Mozambique
by Reuters, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 10:26 GMT
[...] Mozambique, one of the world's poorest countries which is currently in the throes of a debt and financial crisis, is prone to flooding. It is especially vulnerable following a scorching drought last year because soils degraded or hardened by dry spells do not easily absorb water. [...]
I guess those record temperatures were just a one day event for Oklahoma.

Here are the high temperatures for Oklahoma City for the past week.
8th - 50 degrees
9th - 57
10th - 77
11th - 89 (record high)
12th - 68
13th - 54
14th - 42
Good morning, all. Just spent close to 3 hours reading through the blog posts, the links, and through lots of links within the links. So much information! Couple of comments/questions:

#17-barbamz - re: Norway trying to simultaneously make snow and heat buildings - so interesting. The world is filled with really clever people :)

#140 (BaltimoreBrian) and #89 (barbamz) - thanks for linking the Diffenbaugh piece from the NY Times. I spent quite a bit of time with this, reading through the embedded links. Somehow I missed (or maybe forgot) the key research published last spring (Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California). Diffenbaugh's piece, and in particular this embedded link, address NativeSun's comment in post #11 about the length of droughts in CA and TX.

#43 - Xandra - excellent (yet depressing) article about the Everglades...

Regarding all the posts and links about the Oroville dam - you all have really outdone yourselves. Soooo much info.

Question regarding the geology. A couple of posted links have gone into detail about the Smallville complex ophiolite underlying the spillways. A linked thesis briefly mentions amphibolite. Linked geologic maps (one from this blog, and another from an earlier blog) appear to differ; one clearly shows the Smallville complex as covering the entire area, whereas another shows greater detail, with 'mv' or metavolcanic as the mapped feature in the spillway area. Does CA have multiple bedrock maps? Are these from different dates?

Lastly - one of the links (can't recall which one) had a paragraph about a high-risk dam in the Dallas area, with that dam considered one of the highest risk in the US. Anyone know more about this, or which link had that info?

Thanks, everyone, for all the info!
What’s in store for 2017?
Most computer models agree that neutral sea surface temperatures will continue for the next few months, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets a bit more complicated. Some of the computer models are calling for a return of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017.

These models have a pretty good track record, so we’re not completely ignoring them. However… Remember the so-called spring predictability barrier? Here’s a brief recap of Michelle’s great post: computer models (and human forecasters) have a very hard time predicting the future when the March–May period is in the way. In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)!

One of the reasons models have a hard time looking past the spring is that spring is often a transitional time, when ENSO events wind down and neutral conditions prevail. It can be tougher to predict the change into a new phase than to predict the growth, continuation, or demise of an event.

The bottom line is that we’re giving the odds of developing El Niño conditions a slight edge for fall 2017, with the probability around 50%. The baseline chance of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions occurring in the fall of any random year are about 33% each. Our current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño.
El Niño: California Beach Erosion In 2015/16 Highest Ever Recorded

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) — El Niño didn’t deliver pounding rain, but it gave California’s coastline a powerful beating during the winter of 2015/16. Rainfall levels were lower than anticipated, but beach erosion was the highest in more than 145 years, according a study released Tuesday by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Scientists studied 1243 miles along the West Coast from Washington to Southern California, making 3-D surface maps, GPS topographical surveys and measuring sand, wave and water levels at each beach, and published their findings online in the journal, “Nature Communications.”


Link
Quoting 199. LAbonbon:

Good morning, all. Just spent close to 3 hours reading through the blog posts, the links, and through lots of links within the links. So much information! Couple of comments/questions:

#17-barbamz - re: Norway trying to simultaneously make snow and heat buildings - so interesting. The world is filled with really clever people :)

#140 (BaltimoreBrian) and #89 (barbamz) - thanks for linking the Diffenbaugh piece from the NY Times. I spent quite a bit of time with this, reading through the embedded links. Somehow I missed (or maybe forgot) the key research published last spring (Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California). Diffenbaugh's piece, and in particular this embedded link, address NativeSun's comment in post #11 about the length of droughts in CA and TX.

#43 - Xandra - excellent (yet depressing) article about the Everglades...

Regarding all the posts and links about the Oroville dam - you all have really outdone yourselves. Soooo much info.

Question regarding the geology. A couple of posted links have gone into detail about the Smallville complex ophiolite underlying the spillways. A linked thesis briefly mentions amphibolite. Linked geologic maps (one from this blog, and another from an earlier blog) appear to differ; one clearly shows the Smallville complex as covering the entire area, whereas another shows greater detail, with 'mv' or metavolcanic as the mapped feature in the spillway area. Does CA have multiple bedrock maps? Are these from different dates?

Lastly - one of the links (can't recall which one) had a paragraph about a high-risk dam in the Dallas area, with that dam considered one of the highest risk in the US. Anyone know more about this, or which link had that info?

Thanks, everyone, for all the info!


Article that mentions Lewisville Lake Dam in Dallas
Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, coined the nickname Godzilla for the 2015-2016 El Nino.

He said he thinks the return of the climate pattern this year may be more of a hangover than a completely new cycle. Usually after El Nino, the warm water Pacific waters slosh back toward Indonesia and La Nina comes on strong.

Patzert said this La Nina was more of a “La Nada.”

El Nino creates stronger westerly winds that can work to shred hurricanes in the Atlantic during storm season.
El Nino creates stronger westerly winds that can work to shred hurricanes in the Atlantic during storm season.

“There is a large scale stage in play that favors the El Nino because of this larger, longer lasting pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,” Patzert said.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, can be a decades long period where the Pacific Ocean is in a warmer or cooler phase.

As far as El Nino’s return? Patzert said forecasters will know more after spring.

“Don’t cash in your 401K just yet and bet on El Nino,” he said. “El Nino forecasts can be almost as bad as hurricane forecasts in the springtime.”

The 2015 hurricane season marked an unprecedented 10 years with no hurricane landfalls in Florida. In 2016, Hurricane Hermine made landfall in the Big Bend region and Southeast Florida had a close call with Hurricane Matthew in October.
Quoting 202. nrtiwlnvragn:



Article that mentions Lewisville Lake Dam in Dallas

Yes, the Vox article. Thanks for linking that, and for the quick response :)

From that article, this is an eye-opener:

The crisis at Oroville Dam should be a wake-up call to take these warnings seriously, though it's hardly the first. Rowland has another eye-catching example from Texas: "In 2015, for example, government officials in Texas were forced to confront the dangers associated with failing dams in the state when a heavy rain exposed critical safety problems at Lewisville Lake Dam in Dallas. The 60-year-old dam is one of the riskiest in the nation. If it were to fail, it would cover the city of Dallas in 50 feet of water, resulting in significant loss of life. A former U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dam safety coordinator described the potential failure of this dam as 'a much bigger magnitude to the Dallas area than Hurricane Katrina was to New Orleans'."
Quoting 186. weathermanwannabe:

Current projections take the cyclone towards Inhambane in southern Mozambique late on Wednesday before spreading torrential downpours into South Africa's Kruger National Park two days later. The storm is likely to have dissipated by the time it reaches South Africa. However, it will take much longer for the flooding rains within the warm, moist air to clear away.




206. elioe
70 knots now.

if there is a gigantic hole in the main oroville spillway...where is all the water going that is making through the hole? and if it runs like that for months...

i don't get how that would not undermine the structure of the entire spillway
"A lot of that hinges on this cut off low next week that is expected to move across the Gulf. Does it weaken/fill in or does it keep its intensity as it comes across is the question right now. If it stays strong and moves slow this could be a solid rain maker for FL mid next week. "

I know it is too early for a likely prediction. I have seen many fronts and systems drop lots of rain west of here but fizzle out when it reaches my area so I will believe it when I see it. But hope springs eternal.
Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:

8 days so far above 80 this February in Orlando and the other days that we didn't hit 80 we were in the 75 to 78 range. If this keeps up we will set a record for the warmest February on record in Orlando.


DC record warm average of 46.9F set inb 1976 seems out of reach. Current average for first half is 43.5
Twitter account (lots of info, videos):

Storm Report SA - (@StormReportSA1)


Ryan Stuart Johnson - Inhambane preparation this morning.

Short video: "Some roofs of houses are being blown away by heavy winds in Inhambane, Mozambique - Thomas Keating"
The warmth south of the OBX has been remarkable. My centipede lawn is greening, something I don't normally see until around St. Patrick's Day. I usually rake out the dead thatch in late February and put preemerg down around March 1. I should have done it last weekend. Early daffodils have come and gone. Plums have already bloomed and lost blossoms. Broccoli, snap peas and onions are taking off in garden. More 70's fill the 10 day. Feels more like early April.

Quoting 209. georgevandenberghe:



DC record warm average of 46.9F set inb 1976 seems out of reach. Current average for first half is 43.5
124. StormDrain
11:37 PM GMT on February 14, 2017
Amazing but not unprecedented, the 99F temp at the OK mesonet station near Mangum OK last week. The temp tied a statewide record set February 24, 1918.


Amazing observations surrounding that high 99 degree temp Saturday Feb 11, 2017 near Mangum, OK : The temp went from 41 at 0745, with a Southwind gusting to 40 mph, to 99 at 1440, down into the 60s by evening and back to 43ish by 0745 Sunday morning under the influence of a North wind gusting in the 30s (source OK mesonet Mangum meteogram which I reviewed and posted in a comment here Sunday.) BTW, half inch of snow fell near Mangum today - meaning this temp was not a sustained situation.

Amazing what wind can do to surface temps when there is very little moisture in the air.

The warming is due to air compression (not wind per se) during atmospheric descent. All descending air parcels follow the dry adiabatic lapse rate, so the amount of moisture in the air doesn't matter. Interestingly and fortunately, the amount of moisture in an air parcel does matter during ascent :)
Trump's likely science adviser calls climate scientists 'glassy-eyed cult'
William Happer, frontrunner for job of providing mainstream scientific opinion to officials, backs crackdown on federal scientists’ freedom to speak out
The Guardian, Wednesday 15 February 2017 13.13 GMT

Pope Francis appears to back tribal land rights in Dakota Access pipeline fight
Pontiff says need to protect native land is ‘especially clear when planning economic activities which may interfere with indigenous cultures’
Reuters/The Guardian, Wednesday 15 February 2017 15.55 GMT
At this point I should probably just look into buying a canoe.
Quoting 214. TimSoCal:

At this point I should probably just look into buying a canoe. ...

This is ECMWF 00z forecast of accumulated rain (mm) until Sunday:
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:

Strong to Super El-Nino yet again possibly later this Summer into Fall. I don't think we've ever seen back to back years with this strong of an El-Nino.





This is all getting funny.

Or: those the gods wish to destroy they first smite with insanity.
Or: as the apocalypse nears all the news becomes unbearable to the point people will clap their ears and sing la la la.

Enjoy.
Looks like Dineo has already made landfall: LINK

Click the pic.twitter.com link (if needed):



Quoting 207. 3SeaHorses:

if there is a gigantic hole in the main oroville spillway...where is all the water going that is making through the hole? and if it runs like that for months...

i don't get how that would not undermine the structure of the entire spillway
It is undermining it, but they have to either continue to use the very badly damaged spillway or abandon the effort to save the reservoir and get out of Dodge -- the water would rise rapidly and overtop the already-damaged "emergency"spillway and destroy the whole thing. There is no other way to drain the lake fast enough.
From USA Today:


Photo: Eric Paul Zamora, AP

Firefall wows visitors at California’s Yosemite National Park

The "firefall" phenomenon at California’s Yosemite National Park is back.

In mid-February each year, the sun hits the Horsetail Fall at just the right angle to create an illusion that looks like lava flowing off the side of the cliff instead of water.

The firefall only lasts for a few minutes at sunset, and draws hundreds of visitors hoping to capture an out-of-this-world shot.

[...]

The Horestail Fall is a seasonal waterfall that only flows in the late winter and early spring.

Click here to read full article.

More information on this phenomenon: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160219 -yosemite-firefall-waterfall-sunset-pictures-natur e/

The Flameout in D.C. is in werks and the fall to Earth is going to be Glorious to behold.

Semper Fi'

Here's a weather Map.




Quoting 216. cRRKampen:


This is all getting funny.

Or: those the gods wish to destroy they first smite with insanity.
Or: as the apocalypse nears all the news becomes unbearable to the point people will clap their ears and sing la la la.

Enjoy.
This needs several thousand plusses -- you are SO right!
Dineo now impacting land as the western Eyewall is landfalling now.





Quoting 219. Xandra:

Firefall wows visitors at California’s Yosemite National Park

Wow, amazing and beautiful! Thanks for posting, Xandra.
A dam break in eastern Nevada is causing disruptions on the main transcontinental line in eastern Nevada. Amtrak service to Truckee is suspended.
Link
I made it to the Sherwood Forest Hood yesterday evening as we brought a 4 Light Pole and Generator to be used on a block where the Men are werking past dark.

I was INSTANTLY brought back to the Nightmare of Post Katrina life as Dumpsters were full and belongings and rubble everywhere a week post EF 3.





Here are the countries/locations with the most Arctic tundra regions (Northern Hemisphere); that current heat wave noted in the Canadian tundra helps to "soften" the soils a bit making it easier to thaw out (releasing methane and carbon) once spring and summer arrives; same issues with the "holes" in a large section of the Siberian Tundra region in Russia caused by patches of tundra "exploding" as it melts:


The Arctic tundra -- that belt of the northern hemisphere that surrounds the northern polar cap but is not part of the arctic biome -- descends surprisingly far south. Parts of the U.S. state of Alaska and the countries of CanadaGreenlandIcelandNorway and Russia are all in the Arctic tundra biome.

One of the Siberian methane "holes"........http://www.businessinsider.com/russ ian-exploding-permafrost-methane-craters-global-wa rming-2016-6

siberia craters

But the truth — which the new eyewitness reports may help support — is that the holes might come from a threat not even Mulder and Scully are equipped to handle: climate change.

Scientific American reports that Arctic zones are warming at a breakneck pace, and the summer of 2014 was warmer than average by an alarming 9 degrees Fahrenheit, according to anotherstory in Nature. As a result, scientists at NOAA think that permafrost, the permanently frozen ground that covers the tundra, is starting to thaw in these warmer temperatures.

So how does frozen methane blow a 100-foot-wide hole in the ground?

Given low enough temperatures and high enough pressure, methane and water can freeze together into what’s called a "methane hydrate." Permafrost keeps everything bottled up, but when it thaws, so does the hydrate. Methane is released as a gas, building up pressure — until the ground explodes.

Quoting 214. TimSoCal:

At this point I should probably just look into buying a canoe.



I just checked to see what yours was this morning and it went up to 5.05, that is just crazy if it pans out. I have only one word for this; DOOM....
Tornado Warning
SCC015-035-151730-
/O.NEW.KCHS.TO.W.0007.170215T1657Z-170215T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1157 AM EST WED FEB 15 2017

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a

* Tornado Warning for portions of...
Berkeley County in southeastern South Carolina...
Dorchester County in southeastern South Carolina...

* Until 1230 PM EST

* At 1156 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Indian Field, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Saint George, Indian Field, Dorchester, St. George, Harleyville and
Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3310 8004 3316 8064 3328 8062 3333 8050
3328 8049 3326 8043 3327 8039 3326 8036
3328 8035 3327 8030 3330 8025 3335 8024
3338 8024 3340 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 268DEG 49KT 3327 8049

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN
From Mashable:

This rocket just launched a record-number of satellites to space


The ISRO PSLV rocket taking flight.

A rocket loaded down with a record number of satellites just launched on its way to orbit.

The Indian Space Research Organization's (ISRO) Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) blasted off on Tuesday at 10:58 p.m. ET to bring 104 satellites to space, the largest clutch of spacecraft ever launched by one rocket.

This launch beats out the previously record set by a Russian rocket that brought 37 satellites to orbit in 2014.

The PSLV's main payload is an Earth-mapping satellite for India, but its largest haul is the 88 small Dove satellites for the Earth-observing company Planet.

Those satellites, once functioning in orbit, will allow Planet to image the entire Earth every day, when combined with data beamed back to engineers from 12 other Doves and RapidEye satellites operated by the U.S. company.

Imaging the whole Earth every day has been the company's goal (nicknamed "Mission One") since it was founded in 2010.

"We've had a lot of launches under our belts but this is the one that we feel really defines Mission One," Mike Safyan, Planet's director of launch and regulatory affairs, said in an interview before launch.

"It's a pretty special feeling to think back [to] all those years ago when we were a scrappy team inside a garage dreaming about this day, and now this day has finally come."

Click here to read more
Use a smart phone or electric car? Think you're not contributing to the Earth's pollution? Might want to think again.
Read more here.
Link

"lithium batteries power smartphones and laptop computers and appear destined to become even more essential as companies make much larger ones to power electric cars."

"The companies making those products promote the bright futuristic possibilities of the %u201Cclean%u201D technology. But virtually all such batteries use graphite, and its cheap production in China, often under lax environmental controls, produces old-fashioned industrial pollution."

"villagers living near graphite companies: sparkling night air, damaged crops, homes and belongings covered in soot, polluted drinking water"

"The graphite plant discharges pollutants into local waters, Zhang and Yu said %u2014 a nightly event that they can detect by smell: The discharges leave a chemical odor that irritates their noses and throats. Those emissions have not only made their water undrinkable, they said, but also kept the local river from freezing in winter. They also think the discharge poisoned the poplar trees they were growing for lumber outside their home, just beyond their coops for ducks and geese and chickens."

Another related article from the Guardian about rare mineral mining.
Link
Quoting 214. TimSoCal:

At this point I should probably just look into buying a canoe.



Your going to need a bigger boat.

https://youtu.be/QT9BeGNnCqw
And from the Siberian Times from July 2016 to give us an idea of "how much" Co2 and methane is released as permafrost melts in the Arctic:
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/ news/n0681-now-the-proof-permafrost-bubbles-are-le aking-methane-200-times-above-the-norm/

The swelling pockets in the permafrost - revealed this week by The Siberian Times - are leaking 'alarming' levels of ecologically dangerous gases, according to scientists who have observed this 'unique' phenomenon. Some 15 pockets have been found on the Arctic island, around one metre in diameter. 

Measurements taken by researchers on expeditions to the island found that after removing grass and soil from the 'bubbling' ground, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration released was 20 times above the norm, while the methane(CH4)  level was 200 times higher. 

One account said: 'As we took off a layer of grass and soil, a fountain of gas erupted.' 

Quoting 216. cRRKampen:


This is all getting funny.

Or: those the gods wish to destroy they first smite with insanity.
Or: as the apocalypse nears all the news becomes unbearable to the point people will clap their ears and sing la la la.

Enjoy.


I prefer the different saying

"Those the Gods would destroy, they first make promising"

Quoting 211. HaoleboySurfEC:

The warmth south of the OBX has been remarkable. My centipede lawn is greening, something I don't normally see until around St. Patrick's Day. I usually rake out the dead thatch in late February and put preemerg down around March 1. I should have done it last weekend. Early daffodils have come and gone. Plums have already bloomed and lost blossoms. Broccoli, snap peas and onions are taking off in garden. More 70's fill the 10 day. Feels more like early April.




What is preemergent supposed to kill down there. Up here we have a problem with crabgrass (a warm season weed) in cool season lawns and preemergents need to be laid down by late March to stop it from germinating. But I thought centipede could outcompete crabgrass. Both Zoysia and Bermudagrass outcompete crabgrass here but (a point I keep making to deafening ears) Bermudagrass is not reliably winter hardy here although the last major wipeout was in 1977.
Quoting 214. TimSoCal:

At this point I should probably just look into buying a canoe.


Not rising as fast, but still way above any numbers we see forecast here. We don't see this forecast for multiple days.

Virtually all of the reservoirs north of the Tehachapis are full and dumping water into the main stem rivers including the major dams at Shasta and Oroville (Sacramento River) and Friant (San Joaquin River). Coastal valley rivers and their reservoirs are also running at capacity, including the Salinas and Russian Rivers. All the local reservoirs in the SF Bay Area are full and releasing water as well. There is very little space left for flood control, so anything that falls on the basins will be headed directly downstream and out to sea. San Francisco Bay is brown with sediment. The system due in Friday is forecast to take a southerly track with precip focused from Big Sur to Santa Barbara, which is good for Santa Barbara's parched local reservoirs. It will be interesting to see if Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam is able to finally recover from its record low level given the heavy snowpack in the Rockies plus any further southern track storms.
Quoting 213. barbamz:

Trump's likely science adviser calls climate scientists 'glassy-eyed cult'
William Happer, frontrunner for job of providing mainstream scientific opinion to officials, backs crackdown on federal scientists’ freedom to speak out
The Guardian, Wednesday 15 February 2017 13.13 GMT


More information about science denier William Happer here.

Air pollution 'final warning' from European Commission to UK
BBC, 4 hours ago
The European Commission has sent a "final warning" to the UK over breaches of air pollution limits.
It said limits had been repeatedly exceeded in 16 areas including London, Birmingham, Leeds, and Glasgow.
Germany, France, Spain and Italy were also served with warnings over nitrogen dioxide levels.
The commission said if countries did not take action within two months it could take the matter to the European Court of Justice. ...
I am a supporter of the "glassy-eyed" global warming cult.............Might change my Blog name to Weatherman"Doom" in further support in the near future...................................

Quoting 234. Qazulight:



Your going to need a bigger boat.

https://youtu.be/QT9BeGNnCqw


What do I need for insane snow... I'm sending the NWS office here a ruler. Their definition of "less than an inch" and my ruler's are very different... 4" so far is on my driveway... (Maybe they are compensation for something else.

It doesn't change the fact I need to shovel the driveway off, and honestly I don't care, it beats ice everywhere...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y_KNYNzN6A
Quoting 242. weathermanwannabe:

I am a supporter of the "glassy-eyed" global warming cult.............Might change my Blog name to Weatherman"Doom" in further support in the near future...................................



"One of us, one of us, one of us...."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Y_KNYNzN6A

Reality's always better, harsh though it may be!
Quoting 225. oldnewmex:

A dam break in eastern Nevada is causing disruptions on the main transcontinental line in eastern Nevada. Amtrak service to Truckee is suspended.
Link

Meanwhile, upstream from the Oroville Dam, this happened: Link
Quoting 244. 999Ai2016:

Who's the typical solar power user? You'd be surprised
Anthropocene Magazine - Feb 9.


Quoting 248. Patrap:

No surprise at all there. Go, Jeff!
Evil appointed in every high post under Trump and the country collectively yawns and is hapless to stop any of it. Notice how Trump supporters non stop posted on Trump before the election and now it's all cats, dogs, and family pictures? He's not draining the swamp, he's putting richer, more agenda driven for the 1%, and anti-truth on everything elitists in place. The people have no seat of power nor say in it. We have been deceived and are a representative government for powered money interests and nothing else. The two party system is broken and is a tool of division through high emotion debates that drive us further and further apart by the day. Republicans and Democrats must come together and see that we've all been had by both parties. People hate Congress but studies show everyone loves their own representatives. It's a huge problem.
Report: Trump aiming to sign executive orders on EPA
The Hill, by Devin Henry - 02/15/17 12:33 PM EST
President Trump aims to sign executive orders cutting into the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) climate work shortly after his nominee to lead the agency is confirmed by the Senate, according to a report.
Trump will attend a swearing-in ceremony for EPA nominee Scott Pruitt at agency headquarters after the Senate confirms Pruitt, Inside EPA reported this week.
At that event, an administration source told Inside EPA that Trump will sign executive orders related to the agency’s climate work and that they could “suck the air out of the room,” according to the report. ...


Very healthy, indeed ... Guess we are all looking forward to this moment --- NOT.
barbamz..

All of this,will not end well. For Him, the Nation, nor the World.

A fish rots from the head down.
Why worry about using an Executive Order to hamper the EPA? How about the just introduced H.R. 861?



In case you missed it, the entire text of the proposed bill:

The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.
The GOP House just offered a Bill to TERMINATE the EPA...


They hard at work doing the important stuff for the American, er, Fossil Fuel industry.
Quoting 253. Neapolitan:

Why worry about using an Executive Order to hamper the EPA?
In case you missed it, the entire text of the proposed bill:

The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.


Did we completely brain fart to why the EPA was born? One has to question the patriotism of the Republican Party.

The sky is falling and so is our democracy. Our whole system of balance and protections is being dismantled before our eyes at a lightening pace. So few can follow along because there is so much foolery going on every day to distract from the total sum of what's happening. We, like climate and the poles, have reached our tipping point. Is there any hope to come together as a united America and stop this? This is not a party issue, this is a humanity issue. We as a whole are under attack. Just wait till his economic policy is revealed which was called five times more heavily skewed towards the super rich than Bush's by experts in the run up to the election. We must unite across party lines and we need a great leader and we need him or her now.
Quoting 243. barbamz:

Wow, 8pm is much earlier than predicted. That might have saved them some more intensification, and also a midnight surprise.
Some good videos here.
Deterioration Of Iraq's Massive Mosul Dam Reaches Crisis Point

Listen· 4:17
January 2, 20174:23 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered
The Mosul Dam in Iraq requires perpetual maintenance, which has been difficult amid Iraq's war with ISIS. If the dam collapses, the resulting wave could kill more than a million people. Dexter Filkins, staff writer for The New Yorker, speaks with NPR's Audie Cornish about what's being done to avert that potential disaster.

Link
Lots of people are upset by the goings on with the new administration. With so many areas under attack it's hard to stay informed, to focus, and to get actively involved by contacting representatives, etc.

FWIW, I've chosen to focus primarily on environmental and conservation issues. Less on climate change, I'm sorry to say. If they can undermine or eliminate basic environmental protection and conservation protections, then what hope does climate change science and policy have? (CC is important, but there's only so much time in a day, and I'm aware many are focusing on that issue.)

There are a number of areas of concern, and the need for action is immediate. A few of the 'rogue/alt' Twitter accounts are a fantastic source of information, including proposed bills, EOs, how/who to contact in Congress, etc. Unfortunately some of the science/conservation alt-accounts are tweeting about everything...not that other issues aren't important, but the original intent of those accounts seems to have broadened.
Landfall, TC Dineo



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 FEB 2017 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 23:31:01 S Lon : 35:31:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 978.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.7

Center Temp : -70.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 36.6 degrees

A good thing today from TWC.

This hasn't happened in 140 years
Quoting 251. barbamz:

Trump will attend a swearing-in ceremony for EPA nominee Scott Pruitt at agency headquarters ...

Someone should make it a swearing-at Pruitt ceremony.
I can't wait to get into my own home so I can add solar and potentially wind power to it. (I'd do geothermal, but not sure it's a good fit where I am looking at)

There is a neat house in Anchorage that is modern, large, and off grid. It has wind, PV, battery bank, and a natural gas generator as backup in case those fail. The house was built very energy efficient from the ground up. Very efficient boiler with in the floor heat so no "baseboard" heaters are visible and an efficient wood stove. LED lights of course. I'd like to pattern my home after it. Although I'd double the PV size and battery bank. (3kw Solar, 1 KW Wind, 50 KWH battery backup)
Quoting 254. Patrap:

The GOP House just offered a Bill to TERMINATE the EPA...

I'm utterly shocked. This just sucked the air out of my room in Germany, really.

The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.
By Mark Sumner, Wednesday Feb 15, 2017 - 5:01 PM
The bill, introduced by Florida Republican Matt Gaetz and co-sponsored by Kentucky's Thomas Massie, Mississipp's Steven Palazzo, and Georgia's Barry Loudermilk doesn't bother with anything like wondering what happens to the data the agency collects, or the enforcement the agency carries out. It doesn't sweat the details of employees or contracts. There's nothing about what happens to the Clean Air Act, or the Clean Water Act, or the Endangered Species Act, or - anything at all.
Just 'terminated.'
Of course, Republicans already have an alternative means of destroying the EPA in place. Under Scott Pruitt, the plan is already underway to subvert and pervert the agency's mission, to make sure it is critically understaffed, to turn it into a prime example of a non-functional bureaucracy.
So it's likely that Gaetz's bill won't get the support it needs. This time.


House Republicans want an investigation into EPA officials using encrypted chat apps
by Colin Lecher@colinlecher Feb 15, 2017, 11:29am EST

People Show Their Love For The EPA With Thousands Of Valentines
Roses are red, climate change is real.
02/14/2017 06:33 pm ET | Updated 4 hours ago

EPA Veterans Mobilize to Defend Agency's Work, Bracing for Trump's Impact
Former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency, who typically steer clear of politics, have begun advocating to support the work in Trump's crosshairs.
Feb 15, 2017

America's Climate Pollution is Falling, EPA Report Says
Climate Central, Feb 14
After two years of increases, greenhouse gas emissions fell in 2015, reducing America's overall climate pollution to below 1994 levels, according to a draft Environmental Protection Agency report published Tuesday.
The decline in 2015 was mainly because that year's mild winter reduced demand for heat across the country, and electric power companies were using less coal and more natural gas to generate electricity than in previous years, the report says. Emissions fell 2.2 percent overall. ...
Quoting 262. EmsiNasklug:


Someone should make it a swearing-at Pruitt ceremony.



Is that he can tell him "You're Fired"... Because your agency has been disbanded.
!!! Risk of rapid North Atlantic cooling in 21st century greater than previously estimated
Science Daily (Source: CNRS) - February 15, 2017.

About this picture

Summary:

The possibility of major climate change in the Atlantic region has long been recognized and has even been the subject of a Hollywood movie: The Day After Tomorrow. To evaluate the risk of such climate change, researchers developed a new algorithm to analyze the 40 climate models considered by the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Their findings raise the probability of rapid North Atlantic cooling during this century to nearly 50%.

Read the rest here.
The West’s coal giant is closing way ahead of schedule

The smokestacks of the Navajo Generating Station rise 775 feet from the sere landscape of the Navajo Nation in northern Arizona, just three miles away from the serpentine, stagnant blue wound in sandstone known as Lake Powell. Red rock cliffs and the dark and heavy hump of Navajo Mountain loom in the background. Since construction began in 1969, the coal plant and its associated mine on Black Mesa have provided millions of dollars to the Navajo and Hopi tribes and hundreds of jobs to local communities, as well as electricity to keep the lights on and air conditioners humming in the metastasizing cities of Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Yet, they’ve also stood as symbols of the exploitation of Native Americans, of the destruction of the land, and of the sullying of the air, all to provide cheap power to the Southwest.

But coal power is no longer the best energy bargain. And on Monday, the plant’s four private utility owners, led by the Salt River Project, voted to shut down the plant at the end of 2019, some 25 years ahead of schedule. When the giant turbines come to a halt and the towers topple in the coming years, the plant will become a new symbol, this one of a transforming energy economy and an evolving electrical grid that is slowly rendering these soot-stained, mechanical megaliths obsolete.


Link
Quoting 216. cRRKampen:


This is all getting funny.

Or: those the gods wish to destroy they first smite with insanity.
Or: as the apocalypse nears all the news becomes unbearable to the point people will clap their ears and sing la la la.

Enjoy.

lol. I've always wondered why Scott loves El Niño so much.
Quoting 270. MontanaZephyr:

Steve Cobert:

ichael Flynn's White House Tenure: It's Funny 'Cause It's Treason

Not really off topic, in a broad sense.

Yeah, that's pretty funny......
But, you know, from "out here" in 'other parts of the World', we look on with Horror and Dread.

WTF, Y'all ???
Quoting 203. ricderr:

Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, coined the nickname Godzilla for the 2015-2016 El Nino.

He said he thinks the return of the climate pattern this year may be more of a hangover than a completely new cycle. Usually after El Nino, the warm water Pacific waters slosh back toward Indonesia and La Nina comes on strong.

Patzert said this La Nina was more of a “La Nada.”

El Nino creates stronger westerly winds that can work to shred hurricanes in the Atlantic during storm season.
El Nino creates stronger westerly winds that can work to shred hurricanes in the Atlantic during storm season.

“There is a large scale stage in play that favors the El Nino because of this larger, longer lasting pattern of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation,” Patzert said.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, can be a decades long period where the Pacific Ocean is in a warmer or cooler phase.

As far as El Nino’s return? Patzert said forecasters will know more after spring.

“Don’t cash in your 401K just yet and bet on El Nino,” he said. “El Nino forecasts can be almost as bad as hurricane forecasts in the springtime.”

The 2015 hurricane season marked an unprecedented 10 years with no hurricane landfalls in Florida. In 2016, Hurricane Hermine made landfall in the Big Bend region and Southeast Florida had a close call with Hurricane Matthew in October.

Quote of the day. "“Don’t cash in your 401K just yet and bet on El Nino,” he said. “El Nino forecasts can be almost as bad as hurricane forecasts in the springtime.”
..
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:

Strong to Super El-Nino yet again possibly later this Summer into Fall. I don't think we've ever seen back to back years with this strong of an El-Nino.


did you miss this?
“Don’t cash in your 401K just yet and bet on El Nino,” he said. “El Nino forecasts can be almost as bad as hurricane forecasts in the springtime.”
Quoting 247. oldnewmex:


Meanwhile, upstream from the Oroville Dam, this happened: Link


Wow. What looks like a rope bridge is actually the mainline tracks through the Feather River Canyon, sans ballast.
Echos from the past -




Trofim Denisovich Lysenko

Lysenko did not believe that genes or DNA existed, and only spoke about them to say that they did not exist. He instead believed that any body, once alive, obtained heredity. That meant that the entirety of the body was able to pass on the hereditary information of that organism, and was not dependent on a special element such as DNA or genes.[6] That puzzled biologists at that time because it went against all established notions of heredity and inheritance. It also contradicted the Mendelian principles that most biologists had been using to base their ideas on.[10] Most scientists believed that Lysenko's ideas were not credible, because they did not truly explain the mechanisms of inheritance. Many scientists and history of science writers believe that his beliefs are pseudo-scientific, and have little relationship to genetics.[6]
What Happens When That Enormous Antarctic Ice Shelf Finally Breaks?
Gizmodo - February 15, 2017.

Rift in the Larsen C ice shelf photographed by NASA's IceBridge aerial survey in November 2016. Image: NASA/John Sonntag.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

.A few strong storms possible afternoon into evening...
.Moderate Risk of Rip Currents both coast today...

UPDATE...
A pre-frontal trough of low pressure was located over North
Central Florida extending southwest into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico this morning. The pre-frontal trough will continue to move
east and through South Florida this afternoon into this evening.
This trough will bring in some moisture to the area from the Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon leading to some showers and
thunderstorms. The best time for the showers and thunderstorms
should be over the western areas this afternoon shifting to the
eastern areas late this afternoon into this evening.

Most of the energy will remain north of South Florida this
afternoon into this evening, but there is still a mid to upper
level jet that will be moving through Central Florida this
afternoon into this evening. This will allow for the helicities over
the area to be between 100 to 120, as the wind direction will be
unidirectional. Therefore, a few of the storms could still become
strong this afternoon into this evening with the primary impacts
being gusty winds.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL DINEO (05-20162017)
22:00 PM RET February 15 2017
==============================
Overland Mozambique

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Dineo (974 hPa) located at 23.3S 35.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
20 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 35 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 23.0S 33.5E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS 22.3S 31.6E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
======================
Latest microwave imagery (F17 at 1613 UTC) reveal that Dineo managed to build a compact inner core just before landfall. Landfall time is around 1630 UTC at less than 60 km to the north of Inhambane. A west northwestwards motion since around 15tu, left the city just outside the ring of strongest winds estimated near 70 knots by the time of landfall. At 1800 UTC, the current intensity is lowered at 65 knots to take into account the overland motion. However, Dineo now depict an eye feature on infrared imagery.

Dineo is expected to continue a general westwards motion over the next few days. As weakening is expected overland, the system should still pack life-threatening rainfall along its path over most of southern Mozambique, parts of southern Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, Botswana and potentially even to Namibia ... as Eline did in February 2000.

Inhambane is likely experiencing its the most of the storm surge at present time as strong east northeast winds push waters into the bottom of the Inhambane bay, as the high tide is still effective. This surge could reach 2 meters in the bay of Inhambane, and even locally 3 meters at the bottom of the bay. Beware that this value do not take into account the tide effect nor the set-up of the swell. The total storm surge amplitude could thus be higher.
March 1993 Superstorm/Blizzard

I live in NW Georgia. I was just talking to a friend and we were discussing the similarities of this winter and 1993 in the South. It has just been too warm and there has been no cold air intrusions to speak of. Could we see a similar type storm set up in the 1st 2 weeks of March? I am not adept or learned enough to be able to look ahead to kind of get a glimpse of what models are hinting at . So i was wondering what a few of you more knowledgeable guys/gals thought?
New Quake/Tsunami threat for Santa Barbara, CA
7 to 8 meters in height.. not good for the low-lying areas around Oxnard

Computer models show significant tsunami strength for Ventura and Oxnard
"...According to their numerical 3D models of an earthquake and resultant tsunami on the Pitas Point and Red Mountain faults – faults located offshore Ventura, Calif. – a magnitude 7.7 earthquake would result in many parts of the regional coastline being inundated a few kilometers inland by a tsunami wave, with inundation in places greater than that indicated by the state of California's current reference inundation line..."

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2015-08-significant-tsunami- strength-ventura-oxnard.html#jCp

Link
I can't get over the news that some GOP politicians want to abolish the EPA. So I've prepared a little rant (mercy with my English, please):

I’m in disbelief watching the development of the GOP in the US during the last years: a conservative party which obviously doesn’t care anymore in conserving the integrity of the environment! I say this as the daughter of a deeply conservative local politician in Germany (now long retired) who once disliked the Greens and the Green party very much when it sprang into life in the 70s and 80s (“long haired, unwashed, ideological driven anarchos ...”, lol). But nevertheless, as the son of a farmer my father loves nature, and even then he had some respect for members of the Greens who worked for the core issues of environment, in protecting endangered frogs, lakes and the like. Even he himself once became the successful frontrunner for environment when he stood up against the construction of a nuclear plant all but amid the historical town in which we were living. And he still is very committed to nature – it’s impossible to do away with a tree in the garden in my parent’s home – even when the tree was a threat to the house during a storm, ummh ...
In the meantime nearly all parties in Germany had adapted to some sort of environmental agenda (which poses a little problem for the Greens themselves), and the Greens became a civilized party. For some years now they are in a governing coalition with the conservatives in two German states: in neighboring Hesse with the economical thriving region of Frankfurt, with the conservatives in lead, and in Swabia (Baden-Württemberg) with the Greens in lead. Both coalitions work smoothly, and it is thought that this might be a good test for a coalition of Merkel’s Conservative party with the Greens (who just elected two quite moderate leaders) in whole Federal Germany after the upcoming election. I like this idea. And I’m so sorry to see the US the population more divided than ever due to the giant gap between still just those two parties! - Rant over.



I think this article was already posted, but in the light of the news it's still relevant:
5 possible futures for the EPA under Trump
Updated by Brad Plumer@bradplumerbrad@vox.com Feb 13, 2017, 9:30am EST
I can not ignore everybody. I have asked the mods about the rules. So it seems like those of us who are here to track weather events, desiring to escape from politics and hatred...... Have to go elsewhere. I have an opinion too. But i understand my opinion offends or is different than another . But more than that i read the rules and it states stick to the Rules of the Road.....


No matter how strongly you feel about Trump, it has no place on here... No matter how strongly i felt about Obama or Hillary I NEVER BROUGHT IT HERE.

This is where people should be able to come to find information..... not politics. Get your own blog to defend your politics. I have mine.
Virginia buttonweed, dandelion, clover. Mainly for areas of winterkill and grub damage that I can't see yet . Any patches would fill with cool season grasses and weeds until mid May when centipede finally aggressively spreads. I also avoid any other applications of costly and toxic weed killer the rest of the summer. Centipede is an impenetrable carpet but is slow to fill any bare spots before the heat of summer kicks in.

The dogs back yard is a different story. All rye winter grass right now. A mud pit that I have cut 4x since Thanksgiving. So so green.

Quoting 237. georgevandenberghe:



What is preemergent supposed to kill down there. Up here we have a problem with crabgrass (a warm season weed) in cool season lawns and preemergents need to be laid down by late March to stop it from germinating. But I thought centipede could outcompete crabgrass. Both Zoysia and Bermudagrass outcompete crabgrass here but (a point I keep making to deafening ears) Bermudagrass is not reliably winter hardy here although the last major wipeout was in 1977.
Quoting 285. lostinohio:

I can not ignore everybody. I have asked the mods about the rules. So it seems like those of us who are here to track weather events, desiring to escape from politics and hatred...... Have to go elsewhere. I have an opinion too. But i understand my opinion offends or is different than another . But more than that i read the rules and it states stick to the Rules of the Road.....


No matter how strongly you feel about Trump, it has no place on here... No matter how strongly i felt about Obama or Hillary I NEVER BROUGHT IT HERE.

This is where people should be able to come to find information..... not politics. Get your own blog to defend your politics. I have mine.
For a long time--years, in fact--those very Rules of the Road have specified that political comments are explicitly allowed so long as they're about science or science policy. Since the Trump regime is currently disassembling environmental protections as quickly as possible, including protections related to climate change, comments about him vis-a-vis science policy are clearly acceptable. (OTOH, both Clinton and Obama are now private citizens removed from policy decisions, so comments about them are no longer allowable.)
It's not two parties in America. It's one giant party for the elite who own us and are destroying our future with evil marvel comic book villian precision. How is not every American up in arms with the absolute insanity going on? To allow these appointments is just beyond absurd. If they have dumbed America down that much then God help us all.
Quoting 288. Neapolitan:

For a long time--years, in fact--those very Rules of the Road have specified that political comments are explicitly allowed so long as they're about science or science policy. Since the Trump regime is currently disassembling environmental protections as quickly as possible, including protections related to climate change, comments about him vis-a-vis science policy are clearly acceptable. (OTOH, both Clinton and Obama are now private citizens removed from policy decisions, so comments about them are no longer allowable.)


They HAVE NOT MOVED TO DO ANYTHING YET.... All the clamor needs to go away till at least you have something to whine about.... And whine about it because you are CARING ABOUT OUR FUTURE.... Not about your party
Quoting 285. lostinohio:
This is where people should be able to come to find information..... not politics.

I wish watching weather and climate still was a safe retreat from politics and human affairs. I once came here for this reason. But it isn't any longer. Humans are messing with climate (which means, more or less, with our daily weather, too). So informations and arguments about climate politics now deeply belong to this blog, unfortunately.
Sheeesh'...


Think about this one.


Madness'


Climate Change Has Already Harmed Almost Half of All Mammals
Researchers found the range of wildlife now affected by climate change is broad, and includes animals on every continent

By Scott Waldman, ClimateWire on February 15, 2017


The effect of climate change on endangered species has been wildly underestimated, a new study has found.
A survey of studies has determined that climate change has had a particularly dire effect on mammals and birds on the endangered species list. That includes about half of the mammals and almost a quarter of the birds on the “red list” kept by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), according to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study found that about 700 species on the list were affected by the warming planet.

The findings show that climate change is already a major threat to many species on Earth, not at some vague point in the future, said James Watson, a researcher at the University of Queensland in Australia. Watson said most climate studies on biodiversity focus on the effects climate change could have 50 to 100 years from now.
“It’s a scientific problem in that we are not thinking about climate change as a present-day problem, we’re always forecasting into the future,” he said, adding, “When you look at the evidence, there is a massive amount of impact right now.”

Currently, IUCN only lists about 7 percent of mammals on the list and 4 percent of birds as being threatened by climate change.
A team of researchers examined about 130 earlier studies. They found the range of animals now affected by climate change is broad, including animals on every continent. Particularly hard hit are animals with highly specialized diets and those that live in high altitudes. But, they found, even those with a wide range of diet are suffering from tremendous declines.
The list includes all species of elephants, eastern gorillas and snow leopards, as well as many types of bird. Animals, such as rodents, that can burrow were better able to adapt to the changes in their habitat.

Animals that breed more slowly, including primates and elephants, or marsupials, which evolved in stable tropical climates, were less able to thrive in a quickly changing environment. The relative stability of their environment means they are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures and storms, researchers found.
Those animals are expected to be harmed even more in the future, said Michela Pacifici of the Global Mammal Assessment program at Sapienza University of Rome and a lead author of the study.
“It is likely that many of these species have a high probability of being very negatively impacted by expected future changes in the climate,” she said.
The study shows a significant trend in some of the most researched taxonomic groups, according to Watson. More worrying is how a warming planet is affecting plants and animals that have been subjected to less research.

“We have seriously underestimated the effects of climate change on the most well-known groups, which means those other groups, reptiles, amphibians, fish, plants, the story is going to be much, much worse in terms of what we think the threat is from climate change already,” he said.
The study noted that animals in North American and Europe were the most studied. The researchers cautioned that their findings may not be “less generalizable” to animals in Africa and Asia, as well as South America.
Watson said the study should demonstrate to researchers as well as policymakers that the changing planet is already harming animals and that climate change needs to be addressed as an issue now playing out, not something that could happen in the future.

Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. E&E provides daily coverage of essential energy and environmental news at www.eenews.net.

Quoting 282. JNFlori30A:

New Quake/Tsunami threat for Santa Barbara, CA
7 to 8 meters in height.. not good for the low-lying areas around Oxnard

Computer models show significant tsunami strength for Ventura and Oxnard
"...According to their numerical 3D models of an earthquake and resultant tsunami on the Pitas Point and Red Mountain faults – faults located offshore Ventura, Calif. – a magnitude 7.7 earthquake would result in many parts of the regional coastline being inundated a few kilometers inland by a tsunami wave, with inundation in places greater than that indicated by the state of California's current reference inundation line..."

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2015-08-significant-tsunami- strength-ventura-oxnard.html#jCp

Link

For several years I lived in the mountains north of Ventura, and drove down the 33 to the 101 every day, passing several tsunami warning sirens placed alongside the highway. Given that the Channel Islands sit so close to shore, it stands to reason that a correctly-placed earthquake--or even an undersea landslide of sufficient size on the north side of the islands--could cause a tsunami that would indeed run a mile or two inland up the 33 and along the 126/Oxnard plain. An 8-meter wave striking with just a few minutes warning would likely kill tens of thousands...
We could post a comprehensive list of what has already been proposed and already accomplished in the dismantling of environmental protections and conservation efforts by the new administration and the current Congress...

Clean air, water and food, conservation of land and wildlife...this should trump politics any day. And no, it's not just one party who cares about these things. Multiple polls have shown the vast majority of Americans are in favor of environmental protections and conservation.

The politicians currently proposing and executing these ideas are going against the wishes of the voters and their constituents.

Quoting 286. HaoleboySurfEC:

Virginia buttonweed, dandelion, clover. Mainly for areas of winterkill and grub damage that I can't see yet . Any patches would fill with cool season grasses and weeds until mid May when centipede finally aggressively spreads. I also avoid any other applications of costly and toxic weed killer the rest of the summer. Centipede is an impenetrable carpet but is slow to fill any bare spots before the heat of summer kicks in.

The dogs back yard is a different story. All rye winter grass right now. A mud pit that I have cut 4x since Thanksgiving. So so green.




If it's ryegrass, what do you do for summers. I don't think Ryegrass could survive a SC summer. It just barely gets through the summers here (fine leaved varieties are sometimes used as winter fairway grass and in 1977 when
the bermuda fairways were destroyed we had to get it through the summer. The cultivar at that time was "Manhattan") The cool season grass of choice here is tall fescue with bluegrass a close second. I think Zoysia makes the best lawns here but it is brown for five months of the year.
Quoting 207. 3SeaHorses:

if there is a gigantic hole in the main oroville spillway...where is all the water going that is making through the hole? and if it runs like that for months...

i don't get how that would not undermine the structure of the entire spillway

It's a huge pot hole, the water is eroding the spill way below that and draining into the river. Not ideal, but there is a lot of spill way above it before they have to worry about the main spillway being undermined. Depending upon the weather that comes through at some point they will reduce releases to determine what needs to be done to repair it, (and why it formed to begin with, I hope) Meanwhile its a spectacular waterfall.

Draining the Oroville Reservoir to stay ahead of the next siege of rain that starts tomorrow.
Quoting 289. DeepSeaRising:

It's not two parties in America. It's one giant party for the elite who own us and are destroying our future with evil marvel comic book villian precision. How is not every American up in arms with the absolute insanity going on? To allow these appointments is just beyond absurd. If they have dumbed America down that much then God help us all.


I agree... Problem is that every time a "third party" (or really, a people's person) runs, they are strange and/or have extreme view points.

Trump will continue to get checked and balanced, and hopefully some of the environmental things he wants to do will get blocked.
They HAVE NOT MOVED TO DO ANYTHING YET.... All the clamor needs to go away till at least you have something to whine about....

This is a bit like saying the typhoon hasn't come ashore , so keep your plans for that day at beach.
Headed offline for a while. Hope you all have a good rest of the day/evening.

(btw, love the discussion HaoleboySurfEC and georgevandenberghe have going on)
Quoting 285. lostinohio:

I can not ignore everybody. I have asked the mods about the rules. So it seems like those of us who are here to track weather events, desiring to escape from politics and hatred...... Have to go elsewhere. I have an opinion too. But i understand my opinion offends or is different than another . But more than that i read the rules and it states stick to the Rules of the Road.....


No matter how strongly you feel about Trump, it has no place on here... No matter how strongly i felt about Obama or Hillary I NEVER BROUGHT IT HERE.

This is where people should be able to come to find information..... not politics. Get your own blog to defend your politics. I have mine.
You can put them all on your special list, but it leaves very little people to blog with. Been their, done that, the trouble is people really believe it, and most of it will give you a good laugh, just need a little thick skin sometimes. Sit back, pop a little corn, have a beer or two, and enjoy. This is still a good weather site, just need to sift thru the junk.
"SAN FRANCISCO (KGO) -- The Coast Guard issued a warning on Wednesday about the hazards in the San Francisco Bay as a direct result of our recent storms.

The next time your ferry it late, it could be because they hit something. Ferry officials say it was a very challenging winter.

The bay is a mess. A mass of floating debris was visible near the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge on Wednesday. Clusters like these are clogging the waters from here to Angel Island and Alcatraz.

Experts say all the rain we have had is to blame - our ferries are the ones paying the price.

"Four vessels that have had propellers bent, and in some cases had to be replaced. In three other cases, the water jets have sucked in debris and we've had to stall and stop and get that debris out of the water jet engine," Water Emergency Transportation Authority spokesperson Ernest Sanchez said.

Personal watercrafts have also been damaged. It's so bad, the Coast Guard issued an official warning to watch out for the junk and to make sure your stuff doesn't become part of the problem.

"We really encourage boaters to make sure that their vessels are secure, double check their mooring lines. Even small craft -- make sure kayaks, canoes, paddle boards. Make sure those are secured. Any gear that's along the banks. Make sure you've got all of that secured otherwise it could become marine debris," U.S. Coast Guard Lt. Megan Mervar said.

The higher water levels and faster currents have pushed debris downstream. It's not just trash but also a lot of plant matter and logs.

Some ferry routes have been delayed or even canceled, with buses having to take their place.

Officials say there's not much we can do but try to steer around it and to wait."

They do have a water cleanup barge that cleans up logs and other debris, but there's too much coming too quickly right now.
Quoting 264. barbamz:


I'm utterly shocked. This just sucked the air out of my room in Germany, really.

The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.
By Mark Sumner, Wednesday Feb 15, 2017 - 5:01 PM
The bill, introduced by Florida Republican Matt Gaetz and co-sponsored by Kentucky's Thomas Massie, Mississipp's Steven Palazzo, and Georgia's Barry Loudermilk doesn't bother with anything like wondering what happens to the data the agency collects, or the enforcement the agency carries out. It doesn't sweat the details of employees or contracts. There's nothing about what happens to the Clean Air Act, or the Clean Water Act, or the Endangered Species Act, or - anything at all.
Just 'terminated.'
Of course, Republicans already have an alternative means of destroying the EPA in place. Under Scott Pruitt, the plan is already underway to subvert and pervert the agency's mission, to make sure it is critically understaffed, to turn it into a prime example of a non-functional bureaucracy.
So it's likely that Gaetz's bill won't get the support it needs. This time.


House Republicans want an investigation into EPA officials using encrypted chat apps
by Colin Lecher@colinlecher Feb 15, 2017, 11:29am EST

People Show Their Love For The EPA With Thousands Of Valentines
Roses are red, climate change is real.
02/14/2017 06:33 pm ET | Updated 4 hours ago

EPA Veterans Mobilize to Defend Agency's Work, Bracing for Trump's Impact
Former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency, who typically steer clear of politics, have begun advocating to support the work in Trump's crosshairs.
Feb 15, 2017

America's Climate Pollution is Falling, EPA Report Says
Climate Central, Feb 14
After two years of increases, greenhouse gas emissions fell in 2015, reducing America's overall climate pollution to below 1994 levels, according to a draft Environmental Protection Agency report published Tuesday.
The decline in 2015 was mainly because that year's mild winter reduced demand for heat across the country, and electric power companies were using less coal and more natural gas to generate electricity than in previous years, the report says. Emissions fell 2.2 percent overall. ...



No problem with different political views, but when science has clearly established that pollutants in the air/water/environment harm people and the environment (EPA) and when 97% of world scientists agree that global warming is happening (NOAA) and legislation and orders are being proposed calling for reductions in funding, censorship as to the science, or total elimination of an agency, you have a serious problem in terms of "regression" instead of moving forward.

It's called "social engineering" through legislation and by definition, it should benefit the most people and promote the common good.................Right now we are poised to pass and implement legislation/laws that only protect the few and certainly not the environment................Just Sayin regardless of you political affiliation.....Read some history and science and you will quickly understand why these current issues are very troubling.
307. bwi
Quoting 281. lostinohio:

March 1993 Superstorm/Blizzard

I live in NW Georgia. I was just talking to a friend and we were discussing the similarities of this winter and 1993 in the South. It has just been too warm and there has been no cold air intrusions to speak of. Could we see a similar type storm set up in the 1st 2 weeks of March? I am not adept or learned enough to be able to look ahead to kind of get a glimpse of what models are hinting at . So i was wondering what a few of you more knowledgeable guys/gals thought?


GFS has warm anomalies in most of U.S. and Canada (as well as China and northern Europe) pretty much through the end of February. There was some chatter I saw about a possible sudden stratospheric warming, which could displace cold air from the Arctic, but haven't seen any real progs of the sort of cold air that would be needed to fuel a superstorm yet!

Well after 10 years, going on 11...then you can have at it. I have no political axe to grind. I have never been , and never will be anything but an American. So you tear at each other and call it whatever you desire. Meanwhile i will go somewhere else .

Skyepony i have always enjoyed your blog.... Scott...you have always been passionate there in Florida...appreciate your posts, whether i agreed or not....Doc/Hades/GrandManan..... Appreciate the work you have done on here.....

Many more i have talked with down through the years. To you i say goodbye. Keep up the good work. While these who are misguided think this is the place to discuss politics, you continue to give out warnings, educate us(like me) who knew nothing of meteorology when i came here 10/11 years ago.... But because of you can keep my family safe in all kinds of weather.


The Raccoon, operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers , clearing debris floating in San Francisco Bay. Tons of the stuff washing out of the California interior right now.
Quoting 290. lostinohio:



They HAVE NOT MOVED TO DO ANYTHING YET.... All the clamor needs to go away till at least you have something to whine about.... And whine about it because you are CARING ABOUT OUR FUTURE.... Not about your party


Yes, they have. From the questionable fiasco involving singling out climate/environmental scientists in government organizations to appointing ethically and intellectually challenged individuals into cabinet/department positions dealing with the environment and climate to removing all mention of climate change from the White House website, this gang of fecal throwing monkeys have made their intentions perfectly clear. Putting someone like Scott Pruitt in charge of the EPA, for example, is like putting a convicted child molester in charge of a day care center. It's just not going to end well.

You don't "wait and see" when it's damn obvious there are going to be problems. "Hmm, a pain and tightness in my chest and tingling in my left arm...I think I'll wait and see how this turns out." Not a real smart strategy. This administration has been as subtle a major heart attack when it comes to their views and positions on the climate and environment.
Quoting 290. lostinohio:


They HAVE NOT MOVED TO DO ANYTHING YET.... All the clamor needs to go away till at least you have something to whine about.... And whine about it because you are CARING ABOUT OUR FUTURE.... Not about your party


I am a member of the HUMAN party- and I shall WHINE until my vocal cords dry up and blow away-

Source: karstenhaustein.com/climate (scale in degree Celsius).

- Yeah I plan on posting those at least twice a month ;-)
uhm... we got a Gulf low/storm next week?? enough that we should be takin' notice of?
>lostinohio4:20 PM EST on February 15, 2017

Appreciate your frustration and thanks for your participation on the Blog. Most of us here don't have a political axe to grind but we are in favor of trying to protect the planet and environment so that we can try to leave a better place for our children and future generations. Don't want the following to happen to the "planet"......................


I went back to Ohio 
But my pretty countryside 
Had been paved down the middle 
By a government that had no pride 
The farms of Ohio 
Had been replaced by shopping malls 
And Muzak filled the air 
From Seneca to Cuyahoga falls 
Said, a, o, oh way to go Ohio
Quoting 290. lostinohio:


They HAVE NOT MOVED TO DO ANYTHING YET.... All the clamor needs to go away till at least you have something to whine about.... And whine about it because you are CARING ABOUT OUR FUTURE.... Not about your party


(Soooo many things wrong with this, I had to rebutt once AGAIN- )

So YOU would never be affected? EVER? you live on the moon or something? got scrubbers to give you oxygen and H20? you got an endless source of healthy food, you and your young'ns both?

cause if that's the case, I got some cheap property in Flint Michigan to sell you.

(damn, my upper chest and left arm are hurting, must be from all the darts I'm throwing)


Obviously ECMWF 12z did increase the amount of accumulated rain for coastal areas of southern California significantly. Above the chart until Saturday (unfortunatly my German weather site won't provide data beyond that date for the 12z runs). Good night with this from Germany!
Quoting 311. aquak9:



I am a member of the HUMAN party- and I shall WHINE until my vocal cords dry up and blow away-


The "+" button is not big enough to respond to that with all of its due respect.
Quoting 315. aquak9:



(Soooo many things wrong with this, I had to rebutt once AGAIN- )

So YOU would never be affected? EVER? you live on the moon or something? got scrubbers to give you oxygen and H20? you got an endless source of healthy food, you and your young'ns both?

cause if that's the case, I got some cheap property in Flint Michigan to sell you.

(damn, my upper chest and left arm are hurting, must be from all the darts I'm throwing)



You just made my day. I love it when water dog shakes out the excess and will soak those that are foolish enough to think that they could never get splashed! :)
RE: 283. barbamz -- THANK YOU for this -- the perspective of a caring person from afar is a valuable lens through which to see the trouble in the US (and elsewhere -- Russia? Ukraine? China? North Korea? The list is long). Wish I could plus it every few minutes. From down here in the tropics, as a retired US citizen living on a pension, I have a feeling that my life will shrink a lot soon -- the US economy will not withstand such an assault and the environmental and economic and international ramifications are troubling to say the least. We are on an economic and environmental path similar to the hydrological path at Lake Oroville and I don't think either outcome will be fun.
The good ole' days

From the Washington Post:

Scientists have just detected a major change to the Earth’s oceans linked to a warming climate


Big waves generated by the Nazare canyon just off the coast of Nazare, central Portugal, in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. (Francisco Leong/Agence France-Presse via Getty Images)

A large research synthesis, published in one of the world’s most influential scientific journals, has detected a decline in the amount of dissolved oxygen in oceans around the world — a long-predicted result of climate change that could have severe consequences for marine organisms if it continues.

The paper, published Wednesday in the journal Nature by oceanographer Sunke Schmidtko and two colleagues from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, found a decline of more than 2 percent in ocean oxygen content worldwide between 1960 and 2010. The loss, however, showed up in some ocean basins more than others. The largest overall volume of oxygen was lost in the largest ocean — the Pacific — but as a percentage, the decline was sharpest in the Arctic Ocean, a region facing Earth’s most stark climate change.

The loss of ocean oxygen “has been assumed from models, and there have been lots of regional analysis that have shown local decline, but it has never been shown on the global scale, and never for the deep ocean,” said Schmidtko, who conducted the research with Lothar Stramma and Martin Visbeck, also of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre.

Ocean oxygen is vital to marine organisms, but also very delicate — unlike in the atmosphere, where gases mix together thoroughly, in the ocean that is far harder to accomplish, Schmidtko explained. Moreover, he added, just 1 percent of all the Earth’s available oxygen mixes into the ocean; the vast majority remains in the air.

Climate change models predict the oceans will lose oxygen because of several factors. Most obvious is simply that warmer water holds less dissolved gases, including oxygen. “It’s the same reason we keep our sparkling drinks pretty cold,” Schmidtko said.

But another factor is the growing stratification of ocean waters. Oxygen enters the ocean at its surface, from the atmosphere and from the photosynthetic activity of marine microorganisms. But as that upper layer warms up, the oxygen-rich waters are less likely to mix down into cooler layers of the ocean because the warm waters are less dense and do not sink as readily.

“When the upper ocean warms, less water gets down deep, and so therefore, the oxygen supply to the deep ocean is shut down or significantly reduced,” Schmidtko said.

Click here to read more.
Quoting 264. barbamz:


I'm utterly shocked. This just sucked the air out of my room in Germany, really.

The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.
By Mark Sumner, Wednesday Feb 15, 2017 - 5:01 PM
The bill, introduced by Florida Republican Matt Gaetz and co-sponsored by Kentucky's Thomas Massie, Mississipp's Steven Palazzo, and Georgia's Barry Loudermilk doesn't bother with anything like wondering what happens to the data the agency collects, or the enforcement the agency carries out. It doesn't sweat the details of employees or contracts. There's nothing about what happens to the Clean Air Act, or the Clean Water Act, or the Endangered Species Act, or - anything at all.
Just 'terminated.'
Of course, Republicans already have an alternative means of destroying the EPA in place. Under Scott Pruitt, the plan is already underway to subvert and pervert the agency's mission, to make sure it is critically understaffed, to turn it into a prime example of a non-functional bureaucracy.
So it's likely that Gaetz's bill won't get the support it needs. This time.


House Republicans want an investigation into EPA officials using encrypted chat apps
by Colin Lecher@colinlecher Feb 15, 2017, 11:29am EST

People Show Their Love For The EPA With Thousands Of Valentines
Roses are red, climate change is real.
02/14/2017 06:33 pm ET | Updated 4 hours ago

EPA Veterans Mobilize to Defend Agency's Work, Bracing for Trump's Impact
Former employees of the Environmental Protection Agency, who typically steer clear of politics, have begun advocating to support the work in Trump's crosshairs.
Feb 15, 2017

America's Climate Pollution is Falling, EPA Report Says
Climate Central, Feb 14

America will be so much better without the EPA, those bullies always telling me what to do.
America will be so great
Quoting 313. aquak9:

uhm... we got a Gulf low/storm next week?? enough that we should be takin' notice of?


I'll be watching Cali in the near term. Hope they fare well.

As to us I dunno but I can do without a repeat of the 1-22-17 radar. We lucked out.

Making America Great Again -

Quoting 256. DeepSeaRising:

The sky is falling and so is our democracy. Our whole system of balance and protections is being dismantled before our eyes at a lightening pace. So few can follow along because there is so much foolery going on every day to distract from the total sum of what's happening. We, like climate and the poles, have reached our tipping point. Is there any hope to come together as a united America and stop this? This is not a party issue, this is a humanity issue. We as a whole are under attack. Just wait till his economic policy is revealed which was called five times more heavily skewed towards the super rich than Bush's by experts in the run up to the election. We must unite across party lines and we need a great leader and we need him or her now.
So well said! Yes we need a great leader but the system seems rigged to present a choice between a lesser of two evil leaders. Look what happened to Bernie Sanders, they politically assassinated him. Coming together and creating something new, perhaps even outside the existing established political system, seems like our only real option now. The kind of dialogue we are having on this blog is the beginning of that. If enough of us come together and engage in this way, then entirely new possibilities emerge from us and we'll create the change that we want.

Yes Trump is worse for the climate. He is also better because he is accelerating the inevitable and waking us up. We must fully open our eyes to see the depth of the faux choices we are given. Again my point is that we need to discuss reality and create a shift in consciousness amongst ourselves. As George Carlan points out, it would be naive to trust Washington government - especially via mainstream media. Social networking is our new platform and the younger generation understands that.

See George Carlin Video - The Illusion of Choice
Officially I'm already in bed (as I should be). But I just saw the news below. Maybe some hope to prevent the worst for EPA? And take care of your beer! - With greetings from a country with strict rules on clear beer, lol ...

‘I Will Vote No’ — Susan Collins Says She’ll Oppose Scott Pruitt to Lead the EPA
By Susan Sharon • 36 minutes ago
After careful consideration, Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine says she will oppose the confirmation of Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt to lead the Environmental Protection Agency.
Collins tells Maine Public Radio she met at length with Pruitt and reviewed testimony from his confirmation hearing. She says he’s “an accomplished attorney with considerable knowledge about environmental laws,” and if he were nominated for another position in the federal government, Collins says she might support him.
But when it comes to the role and mission of the EPA, Collins says she and the nominee have very different visions.
“Specifically, I have significant concerns that Mr. Pruitt has actively opposed and sued the EPA on numerous issues that are of great importance to the state of Maine, including mercury controls for coal-fired power plants and efforts to reduce cross-state air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions,” she says. “His actions leave me with considerable doubts about whether his vision for the EPA is consistent with the agency’s critical mission to protect human health and the environment.”
Collins [joins independent U.S. Sen. Angus King of Maine in her opposition to Pruitt as EPA administrator. In announcing his decision last month, King said there’s no record that he can find of Pruitt being “affirmative and strong” in enforcing environmental laws as attorney general.
“I just can’t, in good conscience, as somebody’s who’s taken seriously environmental protection all my life, approve the appointment of someone who is so manifestly opposed to the mission of the agency,” King said. ...


Scott Pruitt Withholds Thousands of Emails Likely Concealing Ties to Fossil Fuel Corporations
Submitted by PRWatch Editors on February 14, 2017 - 11:21am


The rye dies late In May and an epic struggle ensues between dog holes, fescue, st aug, centipede and crabgrass. Until we no longer have dogs, the back yard is a lost cause. I could drop $ and chems but then I'd just obsess over it.


Quoting 296. georgevandenberghe:



If it's ryegrass, what do you do for summers. I don't think Ryegrass could survive a SC summer. It just barely gets through the summers here (fine leaved varieties are sometimes used as winter fairway grass and in 1977 when
the bermuda fairways were destroyed we had to get it through the summer. The cultivar at that time was "Manhattan") The cool season grass of choice here is tall fescue with bluegrass a close second. I think Zoysia makes the best lawns here but it is brown for five months of the year.
Another Cracker Jack bit of research from one of the Scribblers , on "Cheetoe Boy's new Science Point Man"

Leland Palmer / February 15, 2017
Happer is a really hard core paid denier, and is one of the intellectual leaders of climate science denial. He was on the advisory board of the George C. Marshall Institute for years, while they were getting money from ExxonMobil, I think. I know that the George C. Marshall Institute got something like a million dollars from ExxonMobil.

He testified before Congress that the “Earth is in a CO2 drought”.

In 2015, the George C. Marshall Instiute transferred defense related work to another think tank, but kept the climate related work under the name of The CO2 Coalition headed by Happer and a former chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute.


Think tank that cast doubt on climate change science morphs into smaller one
Gayathri Vaidyanathan, E&E News reporter
Climatewire: Thursday, December 10, 2015


“The CO2 Coalition is headed by Happer and William O’Keefe, CEO and former chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group.

Happer was implicated this week in a Greenpeace sting operation where activists posing as consultants for a Middle Eastern energy company asked Happer and Frank Clemente, an emeritus sociology professor at Pennsylvania State University, to author a media-friendly report on the benefits of carbon dioxide emissions and the benefits of coal, respectively. Greenpeace released the email exchange this week, which throws back the curtains on the opaque world of fossil fuel funding of contrarian views on climate science.

When the “energy company” raised the issue of remuneration for the report, Happer suggested that it donate to the CO2 Coalition. Peabody Energy Corp. similarly funded the CO2 Coalition in exchange for his testimony at a regulatory hearing in St. Paul, Minn., on the social cost of carbon, Happer wrote.

“I told Peabody I’d be glad to write testimony for them, but it [the testimony] is what I think; I don’t care what they [Peabody] think,” Happer told ClimateWire. “And if they want to pay me, I’d be delighted to take the money for our little coalition.”

Peabody did not respond to ClimateWire’s request for comment. It was the target of a two-year investigation by the New York attorney general for improper disclosure to investors about the financial risks of climate change.

When Greenpeace’s “energy company” told Happer that it would prefer to donate anonymously to the CO2 Coalition, Happer suggested that it send the money through DonorsTrust, a conservative nonprofit that routinely channels money to organizations that cast doubt on mainstream climate science.”

Oh, just launder the money through the Donor’s Trust, said Happer to GreenPeace during their sting operation.
Quoting 282. JNFlori30A:

New Quake/Tsunami threat for Santa Barbara, CA
7 to 8 meters in height.. not good for the low-lying areas around Oxnard

Computer models show significant tsunami strength for Ventura and Oxnard
"...According to their numerical 3D models of an earthquake and resultant tsunami on the Pitas Point and Red Mountain faults – faults located offshore Ventura, Calif. – a magnitude 7.7 earthquake would result in many parts of the regional coastline being inundated a few kilometers inland by a tsunami wave, with inundation in places greater than that indicated by the state of California's current reference inundation line..."

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2015-08-significant-tsunami- strength-ventura-oxnard.html#jCp

Link



pretty much any beaches on the west coast that align with streets...

the nearest hills/mountains have sea shells in them....
altEPA:
‏@altUSEPA

"Trump aiming to sign executive orders on EPA" - Preparing to install Pruitt's drapes.

Ready? Let's see if we can get a few people out. Tweetstorm lined up.

Ally Rally / Alt-Protest (AR/AP): 30+ Minutes of EPA ❤️ at an office near you on Thursday, Feb. 16. Specific office tweets to follow.

AR/AP: Public congregation OUTSIDE (publicly visible) with simple ❤️ EPA ❤️signs. Smiles and happiness for EPA support of a clean America.

AR/AP Goal 1: Peaceful appreciation of EPA's work. No confrontation. No hate. No policy statements. Strict focus on ❤️

AR/AP Goal 2: +ve Interaction with EPA employees as they leave work. Some mayl hang with +ve group for a few mins.

AR/AP Goal 3: Pictures and videos of groups of people happy with the EPA (no blocking car or foot traffic, no feeding trolls)

AR/AP Goal 4: A congregation of 10+ people at over 20 EPA offices across nation. Can we get this turnout on short notice?

AR/AP: Publicity: Feel free to tell *local* media when and where you will meet. Dress in bright colors to make newsreels.

.....
Remember we are the "fear mongers", and we have been duped by "greedy climate scientists" hungry for fat government grants , so they can turn the world over to Rosey O'Donnell , and her "One World Government".


you have to be kidding me
USA TODAY Weather:
‏@usatodayweather

Lotsa records this month: Data from @NOAANCEIclimate



Quoting 332. wartsttocs:



you have to be kidding me


I am not surprised at all , Lone Wati was right , "Hell is Coming to Breakfast" .
Quoting 332. wartsttocs:
I am convinced that -
When this dam autopsy is completed , long, long after today , because we are still in the first act of the play.

We find that the drought caused the ground under the primary spillway to subside. And it probably had plenty of cracks , when the support was lost. After 2011 drought in Texas , foundation repair became a big big business here.

And water has a way of testing the best laid plans. It reminds me of sticking O-rings in ice water , and arriving at the solid rocket boosters failure.
Quoting 112. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 2h2 hours ago
More
Snowfall in DC in 2016-17 ranks among top 10 least snowy winters on record, season-to-date
We were due for a very quiet winter.
Quoting 332. wartsttocs:



you have to be kidding me
It's almost like a weather god has a grudge.
Quoting 342. RobertWC:



My people came in 1738 on the Good Ship Oliver , I'm guessing they were making rules for your people when they got off the boat.

My direct ancestor first settled here in 1625 at the age of fifteen, he was a farmer. His great, great, great grandson became Governor of New Hampshire and an ally of President Lincoln. I am his great, great, great, great grandson and the twelfth generation here in America, I am a screenprinter.
I think we are on the same page, Cheers!
Puppies make everyone happy.



Tank, the pic of Nola Roux's Litter Nov 29th, the one looking left here, Has left da Building to a new Home.

We are sad for His leaving but happy He has a great New Home.

All the best my boy.

Clara lookin atcha,is still looking for a good Home too.

345. bwi
Quoting 344. Patrap:

Puppies make everyone happy.


One of my puppies is 11 years old and doesn't like the snow or cold anymore. I had to dig a path into the woods for him to do his "business". Current storm has not brought anything so far even though the winter storm warning for my county still calls for 6-10 inches of snow.
... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 10 am EST
Thursday...

* hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches.

* Timing... coastals areas have started as rain or a rain and snow
mix. Any mix will change back to snow and become heavy at times
by this evening. The snow will continue heavy at times overnight
before ending Thursday morning.

* Impacts... travel will become hazardous due to snow covered
roads mainly later this afternoon into Thursday. Isolated
power outages are possible due to falling limbs from the
weight of snow.
Quoting 313. aquak9:

uhm... we got a Gulf low/storm next week?? enough that we should be takin' notice of?
THAT LOOKS INTERESTING
343. wartsttocs

I was a screen printer as well. When I mastered the art. I felt like Ben Franklin.

One of my best efforts , designed by the artist ...................... 250 edition , on very heavy grained paper .

Quoting 332. wartsttocs:



you have to be kidding me

Mother Nature trying to make up five years of drought in three months. It seems to be either feast or famine in terms of rain these days, weather it be in California or any other part of the world.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER TC DINEO (05-20162017)
4:00 AM RET February 16 2017
==============================
Overland Mozambique

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Dineo (983 hPa) located at 23.3S 34.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
20 NM offshore and locally up to 40 NM offshore near Inhambane

Near Gale Force Winds
===============
40 to 50 NM offshore and locally up to 90 NM offshore near Inhambane

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.9S 32.5E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS 22.1S 30.1E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)

Additional Information
======================
Ex-Dineo is weakening as it tracks westwards overland. However the satellite presentation remains still impressive and strong winds are still occurring near the center and along significant portions of the Mozambican coasts where gale force winds are likely. According to satellite imagery, intense rainfall are located close to the center.

Ex-Dineo is expected to continue on a general westwards motion over the next few days as mid-level ridge remains fairly established over southern Africa. As weakening is expected overland in terms of winds, the system should nevertheless maintain a well defined and rather deep circulation associated with life-threatening rainfall and strong gusts, along its path over austral Africa. Severe weather associated with ex-Dineo may be felt well inland including most of southern Mozambique, parts of southern Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, Botswana and potentially even parts of eastern Namibia during the weekend ... (could remind eline in February 2000).
Some linked videos regarding Oroville, some of California's other dam water problems.

Link

and they are saying I might get some rain

Link
343. wartsttocs

Back to my point , I am really, really, sick of lizard brained Americans telling me what this is all about . I know what it's all about , Thank you very much.
I am so sick of lizard brained people who have the brain power of a bag of hammers lecturing me about the world as it is .
And I learn zip from them . Except they have always been unloved.
Just this consent grinding of why I don't love them for being low achievers in high school.
And why I don't adhere to their, "Wing Nut Planet Theory" of a parallel set of physics .

Physics doesn't care what our thinking is , it goes about it's business.

Quoting 349. MrTornadochase:


Mother Nature trying to make up five years of drought in three months. It seems to be either feast or famine in terms of rain these days, weather it be in California or any other part of the world.


As a system moves to a tipping point , it tends to move to the extremes. There it it tends to get get stuck , before wildly swinging back to the other extreme.
The Reptilian-Lizard Brain:
"The emotional alarm center for the brain".

There's a Mexican / Jihadi under your bed , but climate change is a world wide plot to make Rosie O'Donnell president of the world.
To the mods .................
"It's wild tyme , I doing things that don't have a name yet"

Jefferson Airplane

Now to what Miles said on PBS tonight -
Very important .

How scientists are scrambling to safeguard vital environmental data

JUDY WOODRUFF: Almost since the day President Trump was sworn in, members of a loosely aligned grassroots movement composed of academics, programmers, researchers and scientists have been archiving government data they fear could disappear.

Miles O’Brien looks in on one of those efforts for our weekly science series, Leading Edge.


The PBS NewsHour

Thanks Cate. And as long as we are off topic….Let me say, that this week February 18-26th is “Week of Action” as part of the #Resistance. Just got off a teleconference….and since Congress is off this next week they want us to:
1. Go to your Reps. town hall events…
2. If no town hall scheduled…find out why not…then contact media
3. If no town hall…plan a “visit” with others in front of their Home Town Congressional office.
4. If no town hall…plan your own with supporters…call media let them know why you are having one without your Rep. (One group put “Missing” posters all over town)
5. Contact your Reps by phone, email and fax this week…with special focus on ACA..or whatever you feel is important.
6. Write/email the editor of your hometown papers.
7. MAKE NOISE….BE HEARD
8. http://www.indivisibleguide.com for more information..and locations of a local group in your area.
3 1/2 months till the beginning of the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season!

357. Misanthroptimist

Well said, nothing I mean nothing gets my hackles up like when a bag of hammers tells us all what it is to be an American. They can't answer this question :

Name the branches of our government.

Let alone what Co2 means to the balance of Earth , and her zillions of systems.

Yikes....
As an evangelical I care very deeply what the topic the Bible talks most about, and that is stewardship. We must leave a world that is better for our children and their children than we were blessed enough to enjoy. We must stop those who would give up all hope of that for profits they can make now and things they can buy with those profits. Those are things, meaningless things that can't be taken with you. What we leave behind is the legacy that will or won't assure the success of our kids and generations to come. We have to stop the madness of the love of money over the love of our neighbors.
Ay, caramba!!



I am going to need a few more sandbags...
Quoting 369. PedleyCA:

I am going to need a few more sandbags...


Stay dry, Peds! I don't think I've seen continuous rains like this in a long time.
Ped this time you might actually need more than 1 sandbag.
Quoting 370. Grothar:



Stay dry, Peds! I don't think I've seen continuous rains like this in a long time.


Deffenitely not around here (SFL)
Quoting 332. wartsttocs:



you have to be kidding me


Wouldn't you know it. I planned this weekend two and a half weeks ago, drive down and help with dealing with some of Mom's stuff and banking. Looks like Monday I'm taking the southern route east to Vegas then north up 95. Sucks to miss driving past Red Rock. :(
Quoting 372. Lurkindanger:



Deffenitely not around here (SFL)


I can't remember the last time it rained here in Broward.
Quoting 368. Grothar:

Ay, caramba!!





That 14.5 looks like it is stationed directly over Oroville reservoir. Better there than higher up in the watershed, I guess.
Quoting 369. PedleyCA:

I am going to need a few more sandbags...

We're gonna need a bigger boat?



Note: rainbow is actually 360 degrees.
There was this unusual stuff falling from the sky tonight in SWF.
It made a noise on our metal roof briefly, then it stopped.
Also left things damp for a short period of time.
Is this the "rain" you speak of? Thanks


Quoting 372. Lurkindanger:



Deffenitely not around here (SFL)
Quoting 362. PedleyCA:


Yikes....
At least THAT is where it's needed.
Lone Wati
"Get ready little lady. Hell is coming to breakfast."
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
855 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017

Latest WPC forecast puts a 992mb low
due west of Pt Reyes by 4 AM Friday with a warm front extending
east to near Pt Conception. Latest thinking is widespread rainfall
will re-develop south of Monterey county Thursday night and
spread north in Monterey by 4 AM Friday. As the low pulls closer
to the coast early Friday rain will spread northward through the
rest of the Bay Area during the day Friday into early Saturday.
Unlike the first storm, this system will bring rain from south to
north with highest amounts over the Big Sur Coastal
Mountains...locally up to 3.5 inches.
381. vis0

Quoting 308. lostinohio:

Well after 10 years, going on 11...then you can have at it. I have no political axe to grind. I have never been , and never will be anything but an American. So you tear at each other and call it whatever you desire. Meanwhile i will go somewhere else .

Skyepony i have always enjoyed your blog.... Scott...you have always been passionate there in Florida...appreciate your posts, whether i agreed or not....Doc/Hades/GrandManan..... Appreciate the work you have done on here.....

Many more i have talked with down through the years. To you i say goodbye. Keep up the good work. While these who are misguided think this is the place to discuss politics, you continue to give out warnings, educate us(like me) who knew nothing of meteorology when i came here 10/11 years ago.... But because of you can keep my family safe in all kinds of weather.
My reply on my blog (blogbyte is titled zilly but that's so it stands out) following link auto scrolls page directly to my reply to this comment, the auto scroll happens once page THERE is fully loaded.    i add the auto-scroll function so readers don't become sea-sick skimming through my other comments THERE.



one thing if i may here the last words on my reply

[ snip ] [axed, shredded, pulverized]

[ snip ] [axed, shredded, pulverized]

...an old saying "the squeaky wheel gets all the grease".  Start squeaking folks before ALL the wheels come off the country...and we have to then build it from the ground up again.

Hell is coming to breakfast.
Everyone roll that marble around your head. Where ever you are.

Lone Wati wasn't just talking about tropical cyclones .
388. MahFL
Quoting 375. oldnewmex:


That 14.5 looks like it is stationed directly over Oroville reservoir. Better there than higher up in the watershed, I guess.


But there is a massive area of 6 inches north of the 14.5....
392. vis0


Quoting 369. PedleyCA:
I am going to need a few more sandbags...



make sure batteries, first aid kits all that is needed when a TS comes aboard is at ones side.

i know you know but that's what nutty people  are for.  To not hold back from repeating the obvious.

If this keeps up for more than a month from now ya'll have to tie anchors to the sandbags.  


 

When i 've seen people place sandbags (only done twice for New Jersey friends) all i see is the heavy carrying of sandbags and the plop drop of the sandbag against door openings, house outer walls.  Is anything used to secure them as in my crappy graphics. AS::

 

 

To bad one cannot use fish-netting to hold sandbags tight onto home's opening, as::

child like 1 dimensional crappy drawing warning::





 

In this manner if it is a lite or fast not so high flood the tighter against doors sandbags keep more water out.(one would secure fish-netting around homes by placing a thin pliable one piece fishnetted covering around sandbags then on either outer edge of an entire sandbag line one would tie it to bolts/metal railing in an outward away from side walls method assuring sandbags are not squeezed inward which would allow water to enter where sandbag lines inter-cross..

 

if one can find thin plastic pliable material that has a way to tie the ends without the force of the water catching onto the folded plastic better.  i state fshnetting cause the fishnetting was the only way to tie the ends where the water went through the ends thus not having the force of the parallel water tugging at the pliable material yet the ability to tie the fishnetting due to its holes onto a secure bolt/pole via ropes as i did onto my NJ friends homes.

 

 

BTW please search fishnetting or fishnet FOR FISH not just fishnet if one wants to stay focused on helping those in flooding areas

BTW2 why does it show a car surfing on water in the flood warning "weather ALERT story" graphics you posted. Would not a better graphic be car sinking, generic head arms flailing with red heart breaking in generic persons chest?

Good morning from sunny Germany ...

UPDATE: #Dineo downgraded, but heavy rains still expected to hit SA
47 minutes ago

Christchurch fires: Homes destroyed and residents evacuated
BBC, 6 hours ago
Hundreds of homes have been evacuated in the New Zealand city of Christchurch as a huge wildfire rages on its outskirts.
A state of emergency has been declared in the city and neighbouring Selwyn District and the military has been deployed to help firefighters.
At least 11 homes have already been destroyed and smoke has spread across the city.
On Tuesday, a decorated army pilot was killed when his helicopter crashed. ...


Mongolian herders need aid to weather second big freeze: Red Cross
by Thin Lei Win | @thinink | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Thursday, 16 February 2017 05:30 GMT
Summer droughts followed by harsh winters are causing widespread deaths among livestock that herding families rely on for food, transport and income ...

Latin America's cities sweat over health risks from urban heat
by Sophie Hares | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Wednesday, 15 February 2017 14:00 GMT
The poor, crammed into concrete slums, suffer the worst health effects from soaring temperatures in cities, experts say
Quoting 374. Grothar:



I can't remember the last time it rained here in Broward.


I feel for you.
Not remembering things, I mean.
I suffer from that these days too.
It's really terrible.
Sometimes I think that, well, errr, ummm,...what were we talking about again ???
still nothing measurable up here in e cen florida. scott i was banking on your forecast. where is it?
WOW! This El-Nino is coming on in rapid fashion. Don't know if we've ever seen anything quite like this before with such a rapid reversal as El-Nino's typically come on gradually. Say what you want but I said last Spring something like this was going to occur because of this positive PDO which has been going strong now for 3 years. I take a lot of heat on here but I do deliver in what I say so here you go guys.


Quoting 395. islander101010:

still nothing measurable up here in e cen florida. scott i was banking on your forecast. where is it?


Remember we only had a chance of rain yesterday. Likely rain chances Saturday afternoon and then potentially widespread heavy rains and strong storms across FL next Wednesday and Thursday. I would say we should be on target to get 2" to 4" of rain across FL over the next 8 days.

This is very far south for an upper low and with the sun angle getting very high I suspect with daytime heating we should see some strong to severe weather with this feature.

Also with this prolonged crash ongoing with the SOI we should see one heck of WWB over the coming weeks coming across the Pacific further amplifying this oncoming El-Nino. With Global temperatures rising at extreme levels the last few years we are entering into an era of uncharted territory.

SOI values for 16 Feb 2017 Average for last 30 days -1.48
Average for last 90 days 2.09
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -40.11
We also have the strongest MJO on record about to occur. Just amazing times are entering into.

What I find interesting watching this is what is happening across Nino 1&2 as warm anomalies near the surface are building downward and spreading west.

if the readings are right, rapid reversal for sure.
Good morning from St. Thomas!

It's 79, going for a high of 82, with no chance of rain on the island today.

My deepest condolences to all my friends in Canada's eastern provinces. I just don't know what I'd do with the 31 inches of snow some of those places got hit with. The videos are incredible to watch!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 401. islander101010:

if the readings are right, rapid reversal for sure.


Yeah its absolutely incredible. Unfortunately our records only go back to 1880 but this is for sure uncharted territory. The fact that we had a Super El-Nino in early 2016 switched to weak La-Nina and now to El-Nino in 2017 is crazy!

I mean 1C across Nino 3.4 by late March into April already folks that's near Moderate El-Nino strength in just a matter of weeks from now.



Ben Noll ‏@BenNollWeather Feb 15

Other-worldly ENSO forecast by new UKMET: strong #ElNiño by July.

+++Niño | neutral - | +++Niño has little/no precedence in recorded times.
OT - I came across this oldie, Could Climate Change Reduce the Frequency of Tracks Like Hurricane Sandy's? and I really wonder about that 'reduce'. Was it in the original article? The thing is that track was unique and the correct question had to be with 'increase'.
Quoting 399. StormTrackerScott:

We also have the strongest MJO on record about to occur. Just amazing times are entering into.



Summer 2017 is building.
Inferno alert.
Quoting 403. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah its absolutely incredible. Unfortunately our records only go back to 1880 but this is for sure uncharted territory. The fact that we had a Super El-Nino in early 2016 switched to weak La-Nina and now to El-Nino in 2017 is crazy!

I mean 1C across Nino 3.4 by late March into April already folks that's near Moderate El-Nino strength in just a matter of weeks from now.






What I find confusing is that we have had an El Niño like winter already, before we have an El Niño!
Quoting 406. cRRKampen:


Summer 2017 is building.
Inferno alert.


2017 as a whole. I don't think anyone saw this coming except me! I've been touting this +PDO for a year and its implications going forward especially with a warming Globe.
Quoting 392. vis0:



Quoting 369. PedleyCA:
I am going to need a few more sandbags...



make sure batteries, first aid kits all that is needed when a TS comes aboard is at ones side.

i know you know but that's what nutty people  are for.  To not hold back from repeating the obvious.

If this keeps up for more than a month from now ya'll have to tie anchors to the sandbags.  


 

When i 've seen people place sandbags (only done twice for New Jersey friends) all i see is the heavy carrying of sandbags and the plop drop of the sandbag against door openings, house outer walls.  Is anything used to secure them as in my crappy graphics. AS::

 

 

To bad one cannot use fish-netting to hold sandbags tight onto home's opening, as::

child like 1 dimensional crappy drawing warning::





 

In this manner if it is a lite or fast not so high flood the tighter against doors sandbags keep more water out.(one would secure fish-netting around homes by placing a thin pliable one piece fishnetted covering around sandbags then on either outer edge of an entire sandbag line one would tie it to bolts/metal railing in an outward away from side walls method assuring sandbags are not squeezed inward which would allow water to enter where sandbag lines inter-cross..

 

if one can find thin plastic pliable material that has a way to tie the ends without the force of the water catching onto the folded plastic better.  i state fshnetting cause the fishnetting was the only way to tie the ends where the water went through the ends thus not having the force of the parallel water tugging at the pliable material yet the ability to tie the fishnetting due to its holes onto a secure bolt/pole via ropes as i did onto my NJ friends homes.

 

 

BTW please search fishnetting or fishnet FOR FISH not just fishnet if one wants to stay focused on helping those in flooding areas

BTW2 why does it show a car surfing on water in the flood warning "weather ALERT story" graphics you posted. Would not a better graphic be car sinking, generic head arms flailing with red heart breaking in generic persons chest?



Hi...hey here is what I did before hurricane Mathew hit St Augustine, FL last Oct. I actually bricked up all my doors 4 courses of brick laid on their side..neighbors thought I was nutso but guess what...the water stopped 4 inches from the top brick and I was the only house on my street which wasn't flooded.

this worked for me because I have a stone/concrete house and the doorways provided a hard stable side . BTW it was not a big deal to remove everything a few days later because mortar takes a week or so to fully harden ( meaning it gets very hard by the next day BUT it isn't fully 100% bonded to the brick or side walls...kinda slips off in one big clean hunk when tapped by a hammer vs a week later when it is harder and breaks into small chuncks with a lot of material sticking to walls or bricks.

This would not have worked on a wood frame house because the wood of course swells and moves shall we say.

BUT I did hear a fellow in town with a wood house saved his home buy cutting plywood to fit the entranceway door frame ( inside the frame vs covering frame) Then he used HVAC one sided sticky silver tape ( fairly cheap) to tape all the edges...lastly he cut a larger piece of plywood to cover the door frame and he used spray insulation foam to seal the small space between the outer plywood and the inner plywood...with no worries about messing up his doors with foam because of the silver tape and inner plywood barrier.

My advice ...serious threats requuire serious actions..skip sand bags...they are basically worthless unless you use many many bags in front of each door...and frankly bagging then carrying as many as required to do the job is back breaking work...you really need a good 1.5 to 2 feet thickness of bags to slow down water seeping between the bags.

But if you think water pressure against the doors will be an issue ( if bricked or sealed with plywood) then by all means do use some sand bags to lessen the water pressure on the sealed up surfaces.

just my two cents...I'll be happy to send pics of my brick work and the water line just below the top..

good luck to anyone in a flood zone who is facing threats!!!
Quoting 408. StormTrackerScott:



2017 as a whole. I don't think anyone saw this coming except me! I've been touting this +PDO for a year and its implications going forward especially with a warming Globe.

Two others see it coming, they would be Myself and I. So that makes three of us. At least we can have a talk or a game of no holdem.
Alright, I never really saw use for those O's (NAO, PDO etc) and I certainly do not use them for predictions. Maybe in the old climate they were worth a bit (to be sure, models for year range work a bit).
Quoting 407. Qazulight:



What I find confusing is that we have had an El Nio like winter already, before we have an El Nio!


Very good point what has happened thus far is this positive PDO signature across the Pacific has given the resemblance of El-Nino eventhough we had a weak La-Nina in place late last year. Years of a positive PDO is literally unleashing on California and to be hones I see no let up in sight for that region atleast not for the next month or so.

With the look below we are seeing deep tropical moisture coming up from the Equator straight into California. I said last Fall that California better get ready for this and many shot me down like I was crazy including Taz. Some say well why didn't this happen last year and the answer to that question is the position of the warm Pacific anomalies this year was more conducive for a California Pineapple Express hammer.



Quoting 410. cRRKampen:


Two others see it coming, they would be Myself and I. So that makes three of us. At least we can have a talk or a game of no holdem.
Alright, I never really saw use for those O's (NAO, PDO etc) and I certainly do not use them for predictions. Maybe in the old climate they were worth a bit (to be sure, models for year range work a bit).



Last year we had a warm ring near the California Coast with a Cold tongue to the West and SW of California this year the set up was different with more of a direct source straight from the Equator. Infact this weekend the jet will do just that reach the Equator and as this happens moisture will funnel straight up into California. Could be some total near 2 feet in the higher elevations.





Good Morning; here is the current forecast, look, and updated drought monitor for Conus:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor
We should see some Super Typhoons across the W-Pac as we enter into April with all these WWB coming across.

Quoting 344. Patrap:

Puppies make everyone happy.



Tank, the pic of Nola Roux's Litter Nov 29th, the one looking left here, Has left da Building to a new Home.

We are sad for His leaving but happy He has a great New Home.

All the best my boy.

Clara lookin atcha,is still looking for a good Home too.




oh my goodness...
416. elioe
Quoting 405. cRRKampen:

OT - I came across this oldie, Could Climate Change Reduce the Frequency of Tracks Like Hurricane Sandy's? and I really wonder about that 'reduce'. Was it in the original article? The thing is that track was unique and the correct question had to be with 'increase'.


After reading that blog entry, the reason for the choice of wording ("reduce" vs. "increase") is clear. In fact, I remember having seen a news story already a few days after Sandy, in which a climatologist claimed, that storms like Sandy will become less frequent as climate changes.

Personally, I disagreed with that climatologist, and continue to disagree. Global climate models are pretty unuseful, when trying to predict weather patterns across Northern Hemisphere, until those models can get the Arctic melting right.
Quoting 396. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! This El-Nino is coming on in rapid fashion. Don't know if we've ever seen anything quite like this before with such a rapid reversal as El-Nino's typically come on gradually. [...]


The heat is on!






A visualization how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere travels around the globe.
Image Credit: NASA Goddard
That visualization below reflects how much Co2 from industrialization in the Northern Hemisphere is disbursed towards the Arctic region through the prevailing jet stream flow and the frequent higher latitude low pressure systems, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, which cause occasional bursts of warm flow which most likely also carry Co2 along with it towards the North Pole........When you combine that with Arctic permafrost melt, and additional C02 and methane release, it is no wonder that the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet.
419. OKsky
Quoting 413. weathermanwannabe:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor


aww, oklahoma had a drought heart for valentines day.
Another item to consider in terms of Arctic melt issues is that the atmosphere at poles (North and South) is thinner in height (to space) than at the Earths equatorial and sub-equatorial regions; thus the Co2 concentration in the atmosphere can be greater at the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet.
Quoting 420. weathermanwannabe:

Another item to consider in terms of Arctic melt issues is that the atmosphere at poles (North and South) is thinner in height (to space) than at the Earths equatorial and sub-equatorial regions; thus the Co2 concentration in the atmosphere is greater at the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet.

Hm, we should use a sort of Dobson units for this.
I think water vapour is the more relevant GHG here.
Quoting 421. cRRKampen:


Hm, we should use a sort of Dobson units for this.
I think water vapour is the more relevant GHG here.


I know that the gold standard so to speak for Co2 emissions has been the observations from Mauna Loa over the years but I have to think that they take readings over the Arctic as well through research projects........Don't know if any of that information is published or available online somewhere.
Quoting 416. elioe:



After reading that blog entry, the reason for the choice of wording ("reduce" vs. "increase") is clear. In fact, I remember having seen a news story already a few days after Sandy, in which a climatologist claimed, that storms like Sandy will become less frequent as climate changes.

Personally, I disagreed with that climatologist, and continue to disagree. Global climate models are pretty unuseful, when trying to predict weather patterns across Northern Hemisphere, until those models can get the Arctic melting right.

In my memory there was 'increase'.
There reason for it is Arctic circulation changes featuring blocking highs in places hithertoo unseen.
The map of tracks is very clear about the unique nature of Sandy's track.

Track and intensity were perfectly on the ECMWF about nine days before impact on New Jersey/New York.
Strongest Storm in Years Takes Aim at Southern California
Showers are expected to begin late Thursday before the storm unleashes its full force Friday
nbclosangeles.com, today
Flash flood watches are in effect Thursday morning ahead of the season's strongest storm, a two-day soaker that will boost rainfall totals during what has been one of California's wettest winters in years.
About 2 to 6 inches of rain are likely from the Southern California coast to the valleys by Saturday night. Showers are expected to begin late Thursday before the full force of the storm is unleashed midday Friday and into Saturday.
"This will likely go down in the record books as one of the wettest February days ever," said NBC4 forecaster Crystal Egger. ...

More see link above.


(Click to enlarge). Fri Feb 17 04 AM PST (17/12Z) through Sat Feb 18 04 AM PST (18/12Z)Source.
Quoting 405. cRRKampen:

OT - I came across this oldie, Could Climate Change Reduce the Frequency of Tracks Like Hurricane Sandy's? and I really wonder about that 'reduce'. Was it in the original article? The thing is that track was unique and the correct question had to be with 'increase'.


The bottom line on this is that the science is FAR from resolved.
There is research out there on Arctic C02 issues and I found an interesting piece related to greening issues and plants; interesting stuff:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/what-s-beh ind-arctic-s-increasing-carbon-dioxide-fluctuation s


It’s no mystery why carbon dioxide (CO2) levels fluctuate with the seasons: As greenery grows in the spring and summer, it soaks up the planet-warming gas, and when trees shed their leaves in the autumn, some of that gas returns to the atmosphere. But scientists haven’t figured out why the differences between summer and winter concentrations of CO2have been growing substantially at Arctic latitudes since the 1960s—in some regions, the fluctuations have increased as much as 25%. A new computer simulation fingers long-term warming in the Arctic, which has led to the proliferation of plants across large swaths of the landscape.

Quoting 420. weathermanwannabe:

Another item to consider in terms of Arctic melt issues is that the atmosphere at poles (North and South) is thinner in height (to space) than at the Earths equatorial and sub-equatorial regions; thus the Co2 concentration in the atmosphere can be greater at the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet.


Density is higher because of lower temperature. DP/DZ is higher because of density so pressure tapers to low values at a lower height in the polar regions, true. The density and thickness terms cancel exactly so the total mass of C02 in the column is the same in the polar regions as elsewhere (with very slight differences because of proximity to sources).
CO2 is a much more important term in the polar regions' radiation budget because of much lower water vapor concentrations there. Water vapor is, by far, the most important greenhouse gas globally.
A point of concern is that in the GOM where the Loop current and smaller eddies break off and migrate west,..note that the last Season never tapped into the GOM. We have SST warm anomalies that when tapped in Late Season systems, will infuse Storms with that energy as it will be there, and at a ever Higher tem/SST as the Warming continues....

..unabated.


Loop Current and Eddy Circulation Studies

P.I: Prof Nan Walker The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current is one of the most dynamic ocean currents in the world. Walker and staff have developed specialized image processing techniques that provide better and more frequent SST retrievals in the Gulf to monitor these currents. Gulf currents are known to impact hurricanes.

The Loop Current and the warm-core eddies that separate from it are large reservoirs of heat that have the capability to intensify hurricanes and tropical storms crossing the Gulf. Conversely, Walker’s research has shown that cold-core eddies, which are regions of vigorous upwelling become energized by hurricane winds. In extreme cases, the cold water that is rapidly upwelled from ~60 m depth can immediately weaken hurricanes by cutting off their energy before landfall. During the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, our SST tracking capabilities led to the discovery of eddy merging along the Loop Current margin, an event that significantly changed oil spill motion.



Ed Hawkins:
‏@ed_hawkins

Exactly 79 years ago today, an amateur meteorologist provided the first evidence that the globe was warming due to carbon dioxide emissions.

His name was Guy Stewart Callendar (@GuyCallendar) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callend ar



He had to do all the calculations by hand, without a computer, meticulously recording the observations in many notebooks like this one.



Tyndall & Arrhenius had earlier suggested that CO2 changes would alter the climate, but Callendar's study was first observational evidence

Callendar's original 1938 study, with 'review comments' from esteemed meteorologists at the end, is available: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.p df

Callendar's global land temperature change estimates are remarkably similar to modern estimates for the same period https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2013/75-years- after-callendar/



Callendar highlighted some potential benefits of a warming planet: avoiding the deadly ice ages & increased crop growth at high latitudes

But as the world warms, the negative consequences become clearer, eg. rising sea levels, melting ice, increasing heatwaves & heavy rainfall
Here is Monday's global SST anomaly chart and a few things continue to stick out; the warm tongue slowly moving towards El Nino in the South Pacific, the Gulf Stream off the US Coast, and the continued cold pool off of Greenland now on both sides off the Southern tip. Another point is the cold pool to the South of Alaska; there was mucho talk for the last few years about a persistent warm pool in that region but is has gone cold over the past several months:



Quoting 422. weathermanwannabe:


I know that the gold standard so to speak for Co2 emissions has been the observations from Mauna Loa over the years but I have to think that they take readings over the Arctic as well through research projects........Don't know if any of that information is published or available online somewhere.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/index.php

Quoting 431. weathermanwannabe:

Here is Monday's global SST anomaly chart and a few things continue to stick out; the warm tongue slowly moving towards El Nino in the South Pacific, the Gulf Stream off the US Coast, and the continued cold pool off of Greenland now on both sides off the Southern tip. Another point is the cold pool to the South of Alaska; there was mucho talk for the last few years about a persistent warm pool in that region but is has gone cold over the past several months:






I think we are going to see a lot more energy being focused over the El-Nino regions compared to last Winter. This has been the big change in the weather for California this Winter compared to last year.
Front whipped thru the SF Bay Area just before dawn. Forecast to slow, then return as a warm front, a result of a sharp trough in the jet stream right along the California coast. Some of the progs are confirming the possibility of bombogenesis right off the coast of the Bay Area at Half Moon Bay, with a value of 985 mb showing up. This is prompting concern about "chaotic winds" (sic) which would be putting it mildly. Expect to see storm warnings posted soon. The strongly diffluent jet aloft should also produce copious rains across the state, with normal snow levels. Flooding is almost certain to occur in numerous areas as all reservoirs are near or at capacity. The winds will also cause widespread damage.


Quoting 431. weathermanwannabe:

Another point is the cold pool to the South of Alaska; there was mucho talk for the last few years about a persistent warm pool in that region but is has gone cold over the past several months:






This is, I think, the biggest reason for the reversal of fortune in CA this winter. The temp difference between that cooler water off the PacNW and the warmer water off our coast seems to driving stronger storms, and pushing them further south, than the last several years.
Quoting 396. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! This El-Nino is coming on in rapid fashion. Don't know if we've ever seen anything quite like this before with such a rapid reversal as El-Nino's typically come on gradually. Say what you want but I said last Spring something like this was going to occur because of this positive PDO which has been going strong now for 3 years. I take a lot of heat on here but I do deliver in what I say so here you go guys.



You nailed it again. Amazing that you get so much pushback on your forecasts.
BayFog,...

I really enjoyed my first visit to San Francisco back in December for the AGU conference and look forward the AGU being here next year in New Orleans.

Hop on down fo it..

Be our guest.

We can catch the boyz at House of Blues on that Tues night and have some dinner at the same time.


San Francisco I found to be alot like Nola. Save for them inclines. Phew!



DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK, SEEMS PRETTY FAR SOUTH....
Quoting 420. weathermanwannabe:

Another item to consider in terms of Arctic melt issues is that the atmosphere at poles (North and South) is thinner in height (to space) than at the Earths equatorial and sub-equatorial regions; thus the Co2 concentration in the atmosphere can be greater at the Arctic relative to the rest of the planet.


Should my memory serve me correctly, I have read articles that indicated that the height of the atmosphere in the Arctic region would increase as the Arctic region warms at a faster pace than the rest of the planet. The atmosphere slopes down towards the polar regions for various reasons and the temperature differences between the polar regions and the equatorial region is one of these reasons. As the Arctic region continues to warm at a faster pace than the equatorial region then the rate of the slope in the atmosphere decreases towards this polar region. I would see the slowing of the jet stream, along with its distorted shape, to become less of a barrier in the mixing of the air between the Arctic region and the rest of the northern hemisphere, where most of the anthropogenic releases of CO2 is being created. I believe that the slowing of the jet stream has been discussed here in past blogs. I am not a scientist, so perhaps someone here could give a better explanation of this and to correct anything that I may be saying incorrectly.
North East Maine, New brunswick, Nova Scotia, P.E.I and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland got pounded this week in snow. 3 storms in 7 to 8 days covered a huge area with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 even higher is some local areas or so lol. Many highways were plain closed for travel and rightfully so, Halifax no city transit for almost 2 full days no ferry service and even the Casino closed that never happens. I couldn't get any pictures but many to view of these events and the snow totals thus far are staggering.There are Nor' Easters that truck along 6-8 hours and their done then there are slow moving systems that last 24 hours or greater and these are the ones that can kill np if lost in the woods while ice fishing or checking snares and hunting etc. Here is prime example probably the best footage of the white Juan event Feb 2004. Wind gusts in Halifax were around 80 mph Les Suete winds in Cape Breton's west Side were somewhere around 120 mph because of its topography hence there aren't as many trees there hehe.this brave soul took a lengthy video mind his face must have hurt real bad i know mine did and my brother and law and i didnt even make it back to Nova Scotia from New Brunswick in juan.After a motorist got stuck it caused a chain reaction to a section of highway not even plowed over 2 feet of snow on the highway around Sackville New Brunswick.When a motorist that had a snowmobile travelled to a local radio station to get help people needed insulin injections etc and stranded almost 14 hours on a highway created a nightmare for the police, fire. ambulance services trying to get to them.I did assist the R.C.M.P in a car to car search most cars were abandoned but some suffered from carbon minoxide cause they didn't clear the exhaust pipes of the car etc. It was dire and hard going waste deep high and exhausting.I was great full that the red cross did have a emergency warming shelter with cotts and hot eats and drinks for people that was by far the most vicious snow event in my 30 years living in the Maritimes for sure. Anyhow This brave soul got great footage of Juan https://youtu.be/83T17SwUgQA.
Boring winter and potentially boring hurricane season.Maybe it's not to late to get into the business of celebrity gossip?
" I don't think anyone saw this coming except me! "... Perhaps you should hold a rally for yourself. Your fan could come and wave a little flag... Yaaay.
Quoting 441. washingtonian115:

Boring winter and potentially boring hurricane season.Maybe it's not to late to get into the business of celebrity gossip?


When it comes to tropical cyclones "boring" is good. I fear the coming severe weather season, including events in the Mid Atlantic will not be boring.
From InsideClimate News:

Scientists' Group Launches Website to Help Federal Whistleblowers

Fearing an assault on science from the Trump administration, the Union of Concerned Scientists is creating a way for federal scientists to report abuses.


Many scientists, led by those doing climate work, have expressed concern about the Trump administration's actions and the future of federal science. Credit: Wikimedia

Many of President Donald Trump's words and actions have federal scientists worried their work will be politicized or suppressed. Now, one advocacy group is responding with a step-by-step guide for scientists to securely share information about any foul play.

The Union of Concerned Scientists, whose mission is to protect scientific integrity, has created a webpage for federal scientists to report abuses, with instructions on how to avoid detection or hacking.

Trump has called climate change a hoax, and one of his administration's first moves was to remove pages from the White House and State Department websites that referred to the issue. The Trump administration has sent memos and directives to agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Park Service, that some employees reportedly interpreted as gag orders, though some of the directives were later reversed or disavowed.

"There have been a number of actions either proposed or taken by the transition team and the administration that make science more vulnerable to political interference," said Michael Halpern, deputy director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. He said many of Trump's nominees are opposed to the missions of the agencies they would oversee. "When you have hostile agency appointees, science becomes more vulnerable to political influence. So I think all these conditions taken together make it more important for federal employees to report what they see."

[...]

UCS's new webpage encourages federal employees to "share any evidence of actions that impede the ability of science or scientists to protect public health and the environment," including memos, emails or "datasets or other information that has been altered or removed from public view."

Click here to read full article
Dineo post landfall; lots of rain with this one 





Quoting 438. Tampa969mlb:
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON THAT LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK, SEEMS PRETTY FAR SOUTH....


wumail me and I'll see what CrownWeather says, sometime after 3pm -uh yeah it could be a big wet mop of a mess BUT the Euro and GFS seemed at odds, so it's still kinda up in the air (time frame tues-thurs next week)
You know Patrick, if you cut your hair, you and Gov. Brown could be brothers...

Quoting 437. Patrap:

BayFog,...

I really enjoyed my first visit to San Francisco back in December for the AGU conference and look forward the AGU being here next year in New Orleans.

Hop on down fo it..

Be our guest.

We can catch the boyz at House of Blues on that Tues night and have some dinner at the same time.


San Francisco I found to be alot like Nola. Save for them inclines. Phew!






Great Lakes should be peaking with ice cover right about now...and instead nothing. Given the heat wave that is going to engulf the region next week what little ice cover is left will be gone. Will be interesting to see how fast they warm up as spring approaches.
Quoting 436. Kenfa03:

You nailed it again. Amazing that you get so much pushback on your forecasts.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2 hHace 2 horas
Más
Have we ever had a daily ENSO 3.4 ind to monitor before @TropicalTidbits? I'm wondering if there's a lot of overreaction going on to rise?
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
846 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Models continue to trend stronger with the system forecast to move
into NorCal Sunday night and Monday as it taps deeper moisture
over the eastern Pacific. Both GEFS and recent operational runs
of the GFS and ECMWF have been indicating that the deeper moisture
is likely to reach further north with an 24-30 hour period of
moderate to heavy precipitation possible across much of the
region. Unfortunately, the focus of heaviest QPF is lining up on
the northern Sierra north of Highway 50 up into the Feather River
basin.

Have boosted wind and QPF forecasts for Monday with 1-3 inches of
rain possible in the valley and 3-10 inches of rain for the
foothills and mountains. Snow levels forecast to briefly climb
back into the 6000-8000 foot range as deeper moisture moves up
from the southwest, but will return to around 4000-5000 feet by
Monday night resulting in heavy snow across the higher elevations.
Needless to say, impacts from the increased runoff, wind and
heavy snow will be considerable.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
453. vis0

Quoting 403. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah its absolutely incredible. Unfortunately our records only go back to 1880 but this is for sure uncharted territory. The fact that we had a Super El-Nino in early 2016 switched to weak La-Nina and now to El-Nino in 2017 is crazy!

I mean 1C across Nino 3.4 by late March into April already folks that's near Moderate El-Nino strength in just a matter of weeks from now.


j

[waited for the autobot-new entry]
Though  a year ago i was in the same lean as to having another El Nino but my lean goes towards some weird half/hybrid Nino and then i wonder is El chaperone / chaperon will be back (that warm blob west of Washington State) 





My indirectly related emotional reply::
 Also why Dr. Master has passion for passing on knowledge, as imagine there you are over /in the eye of a swirl that is bring pain to so many yet you have to continue the observations to further help mankind learn how to better predict thus avoid the dangers that serious weather events bring.  

In a similar yet not as professional setting  you'll (wxu members/amateur weather observers) be able to take readings within a short period of time of how 2 different Nino influence the local to worlds weather flow.  Sadly since the lab being used is Earth you'll notice destruction as one observes and learns and wishes we could learn without the pain inflicted by weather events.
And BTW though i'm told that my invention is just in my head i've shed many tears in seeing weather react to what i think is the inventions influence and wished scientists would have  listen to my requests to study my device (and brain) to avoid the need to test it in the real world, at least till it was better understood....if i may change a famous quote, i'm now become death destroyer of planets (i know how much energy is needed to destroy a complex planet this imagined device has that and more, lets hope when its figured out next that its never even tested beyond a third of its ability.
I'm a 50 year old male who has lived in southeast Michigan (suburban Detroit) for most of my life with the exception of the years 1998-2001 when I lived in Ft. Lauderdale Fla and briefly in Phoenix, Az back in 1980 so I have experienced many northern winters. In addition I've studied weather and climate most of life. I am one of the few people who enjoy the winter. To say this winter was mild has become beyond an understatement. Aside from the recorded data I can judge winter in this area by ice cover or lack there of this year on the many nearby inland lakes. I can say whatever period for icefishing or related activity was very brief. During the 2012 winter we experienced very similar conditions; furthermore I witnessed trees blossom with temps in the 70s and 80s in early March. I cannot ever recall that occurring in my lifetime.

Temps reach 70 degrees here yesterday (feb 18 avg high is 35) and forcast to be in the 50s & 60s for several days. Preliminary forcasts show temps returning to closer to normal around 40 next weekend which is still above normal. I'm sorry to inform those folks like my bro in law that ice fishing is likely done this year. I'll be looking to see when the tree blossoms start.

I mentioned the 2011/12 incredibly abnormal winter. My thoughts at the time were to observe the following year(s) winter or other seasonal norms relative to average. I can say the 3 winters in this area between 2012 and now were more typical with 2013/14 actually much colder and snowier then average.

The bottom line now having observed conditions over 5 years is 2 of those winters of minimal inland lake ice overage and it being overall too unsafe to even consider walking on foot. In the many winters I mentioned experiencing I can recall some more mild with less snow then others but there was always some extended period of sub-freezing conditions in January and February to allow a safe period of winter activities. Some years longer or shorter but always some.
I'm a mostly independently minded person politically speaker. I try to get as much information and gather evidence from as many different sources as possible and then draw conclusions. I have debated many individuals regarding the climate as well as other issues recently. When it comes to the folks who hold the far right conservative point of view I have found them increasing unreasonable and close minded.

Its beyond obvious the planet is experiencing overall warming and changing climate conditions. While I don't think its 100% humans its all of 85-90% and that's probably being generous to the human race lol.

I have to admit I'm a "glass half empty" guy. I'm of the opinion some of the possible solutions to put forth and agreements reached in all likely hood will not produce the results hoped by some. In debates with people who deny climate change I try to reason with them that while the climate is changing its unlikely the measures proposed will not have any impact. My message to them is they should just be aware of it. The earths climate is very complicated and actual future predictions are near impossible. Unfortunately they don't want to hear any other points of view.

Weather forcasting has become very accurate within that 10 maybe 14 day window however after that the accuracy rapidly drops off.