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Thirsty California soaks up Melor's Deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2009

The remains of Super Typhoon Melor dumped record-breaking amounts of rain over California over the past 24 hours, but the storm is now departing the state without having caused major damage. Mining Ridge in Monterey County had an extraordinary 21.34" of rain, and several locations in Santa Cruz, Monterey, and Santa Clara counties had over 10" of precipitation. Downtown San Francisco recorded 2.49 inches of rain, which is the greatest 24 hour rainfall for the month of October (records have been kept since 1849). Monterey also set a record for the greatest October rainfall, 2.66". Strong winds accompanied the storm, with the Twin Peaks in San Francisco recording a hurricane-force gust of 75 mph, Angel Island, 77 mph, and Los Gatos in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 87 mph. Sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force were experienced at several locations along the coast. The Point Reyes Lighthouse experienced sustained winds of 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph, at the peak of the storm. The Sierra Mountains probably experienced hurricane-force wind gusts, and received several feet of snow. California was lucky this storm came early in their rainy season, since the ground was dry from a year-long drought and the soils were able to absorb a great deal of the rain. Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for Melor's Deluge.

Tropical Storm Patricia dies
Tropical Storm Patricia is no more. The storm died out as it approached Mexico's Baja Peninsula, and caused no major flooding or wind damage.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Listen live at 10:10 am EDT to my Hurricane Hugo lecture
I'm subbing today for Professor Perry Samson's Extreme Weather course at the University of Michigan. He's set up a system where one can listen to the lecture and see the slides of the presenter live (though not the pretty faces). Between 10:10 - 11:00 am EDT today, I'll be presenting a talk, "Hurricane Hugo: the Hurricane Hunters' wildest ride" to the Extreme Weather class, and you're all welcome to tune in. Simply point your browser to http://samson.lecturetools.org and click the "Low Speed Video Stream" button. There is also a "high speed" button, but I'm not sure the network will be able to bear the load if there are a lot of folks tuning in. The lecture will also be recorded for those wanting to view it later.

I haven't heard yet how yesterday's Senate vote on NOAA funding went, the Senate web site indicates that they are still not done debating the bill.

I'll post my rest-of-hurricane-season outlook on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Storm's Comin'
Storm's Comin'
October Rain
October Rain

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M
SE US: 48 Hours



Melor and California: 24 Hours



Henri remnants and subsequent Cuban twins: 48 Hours

still quiet in the Atlantic...great!
good morn doc looking forward to your outlook on thursday to me in all the years of watchin i believe its done may be one roque left but we have to wait and see just like we always do
Lot of rain expected in the SE today, get some flood issues somewhere around here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morn doc looking forward to your outlook on thursday to me in all the years of watchin i believe its done may be one roque left but we have to wait and see just like we always do


Snowing yet KOG?
The lows keeps getting lower with this front, down to 45 degrees. May get lower, who knows.
no but cool
It looks like Parma is done in the W Pac unless it pulls an Erin.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.

Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Seismic Monitor
Humor in Comments
got 24 high power turbo fans on the roof and pointing them all towards the south to cool off fla
I've found the coldest city in the U.S. Mainland Saranac Lake, New York.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no but cool



With a little lucky..you will have lots this year :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
got 24 high power turbo fans on the roof and pointing them all towards the south to cool off fla


you have ice in front of them? 45 degrees here for the low this weekend.
Thanks Keeper, we sure need them. Hello Orca.
Hi Tampa..trying to pass the time waiting for this morning to be over. Maybe better news about dad this afternoon.
Quoting foggymyst:
Hi Tampa..trying to pass the time waiting for this morning to be over. Maybe better news about dad this afternoon.


He WILL be fine! He is in good hands!
Well it's good to see the rains in California have a silver lining.

Quoting Dr. M:
"Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years."

In other CA news:
A camera captured Maria Shriver (Gov. Arnold’s wife) talking on her cell phone while driving – despite the recent law enacted by her hubby banning such use. Oops!



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL
CREST THE MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO DIG SEWD OVER THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE OFFSET OF THIS WAVE FROM THE
WARM SECTOR AND A LINGERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST...NO STRONG SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE
IS EXPECTED. ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID-UPPER
WLY/WNWLY FLOW...A SLOW-MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE SE ATLANTIC COAST WNWWD INTO CENTRAL MS/NRN
LA...AND WWD INTO N/NW TX WHERE A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST ALONG
THE BOUNDARY BY TONIGHT.

...NE GULF COAST TODAY AND SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE NE GULF COAST WHERE A WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS N FL. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS TODAY. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARM/MOIST
PROFILES ALOFT WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS
AND DOWNDRAFTS...LEAVING ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS ALSO EXPECTED BY TONIGHT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A RATHER DIFFUSE PATTERN FOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF LA/TX TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING WEAK AND/OR WELL-REMOVED
FROM THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FROM SRN LA INTO E TX TODAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS N TX...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WILL COINCIDE IN A NARROW
ZONE. STILL...THE MORE PROBABLE RISK WILL BE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS WRN AR/ERN OK AS THE REMNANT LEE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS EWD ALONG THE FRONT...AND LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES
WITH THE FORMATION OF A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ. IN EITHER CASE...A
CONTINUATION OF RATHER POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM PROFILES
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AND ANY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN MARGINAL.
Blog Killer?
ElConando - What city do you live in?
25. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Killer?


Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.
Thanks, Doc.

"Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state"

Yep. Like I said last night, seemed like there should have been less "Oh no" and more "Great!". No way this system wasn't going to be good for their water problems...
the sun is also very quiet. no sunspots for the last 12 days or so...


latest sunspot update for SC24 (from solarcycle24.com)...
Quoting IKE:


Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days.




This is about all I can find to watch for the long term..and even it is weak. The one coming into the outer Islands right now is even weaker.
Good Morning. Nothing to report except to note that Winter appears to have arrived in earnest....Will be focusing on severe winter weather events for Conus as all the fronts start coming through. Wish I had the funds to keep several homes in the US and Caribbean so I could follow the good weather around; looks like right about now would be a good time to spend the next several months on Aruba or Martinique for the Winter. :)
30. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:




This is about all I can find to watch for the long term..and even it is weak. The one coming into the outer Islands right now is even weaker.


I see about a 7-10 day window of opportunity in the Atlantic....from about a week from now, until the end of the month.

After the end of October, the MJO is out of here....actually, the MJO never is that great in the western ATL. It's more in the east-PAC and northern SA and then the west coast of Africa....

I will soon post some great cloud pics I took earlier today.
Clouds Formations over Sydney This afternoon.












As soon as I saw these clouds I just had to take some pics.
Cheers AussieStorm
New TD just formed in the Western Pacific.
Ace pictures Aussie
Quoting somemalayguy117:
New TD just formed in the Western Pacific.

Oh please please please GOD, Please don't let it hit the Philippines, They are suffering enough.
38. IKE
33.
Friend is running the Kansas City Marathon Saturday. Will be good weather for this, but will need a "throwdown shirt" for the start (cold for a Florida girl)

OK, re-read this & I know what some of you are thinking. I can practically guarantee there would be another shirt underneath. It's a running thing.
My God it's nasty here today!!!! Wife cancelled her regular Wednesday golf game...and is here in the office all day with me...pointing out all my shortcomings...which are, apparently, many...
Just finished listening to:
"Hurricane Hugo: the Hurricane Hunters' wildest ride" to the Extreme Weather class,

... a very interesting presentation, thank you very much Jeff.

[edit]Please note that I tried several times using the "low speed" button and got a "404 not found" error so I used the high speed option and it worked just fine.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Ace pictures Aussie

Thanx... as I said, when I saw it, I just had to take sum pics.
40. LMAO...I know the feeling!
I'm supposed to be the boss around here...but my powers of 'boss' seem to be illusory...
000
FXUS61 KCTP 141457
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1057 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS
STORM WILL PULL LOTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO PA ON DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO A POSSIBLY DAMAGING EARLY-
SEASON SNOW LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
A UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A WARMING
TREND IS SEEN NEXT WEEK.
Quoting presslord:
I'm supposed to be the boss around here...but my powers of 'boss' seem to be illusory...


As, indeed they are...the days iof a man running the house ended some time ago, if they ever really existed...they let us think we're in charge to keep us quiet LOL
Quoting Floodman:


As, indeed they are...the days iof a man running the house ended some time ago, if they ever really existed...they let us think we're in charge to keep us quiet LOL


I think that was a Fable that our fathers tried to feed us.

Next week I will have been Married 30 years... and I quit having control of running things around here the minute she said "I do", up until that point..I seemed to have complete control....
Dude! trust me...she has always run the house...but I mistakenly thought I was supposed to run the business...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Just finished listening to:
"Hurricane Hugo: the Hurricane Hunters' wildest ride" to the Extreme Weather class,

... a very interesting presentation, thank you very much Jeff.

[edit]Please note that I tried several times using the "low speed" button and got a "404 not found" error so I used the high speed option and it worked just fine.


Thanks! I'll see that Prof. Samson gets this fixed for my next lecture.

Jeff Masters
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think that was a Fable that our fathers tried to feed us.

Next week I will have been Married 30 years... and I quit having control of running things around here the minute she said "I do", up until that point..I seemed to have complete control....

Congrats (or condolences), Orca.

It isn't all that bad, guys. Mine is my best friend...and my favorite employer.

Though it has been a number of years, I still say it only feels like it has been 5 minutes...
...
...
...
underwater.
(j/k)
This has been stuck for a few days...but is coming. Amplitude still in doubt...

Where do the temps still support TCs? Everywhere in red is great, white is still ok...

Quoting atmoaggie:

Congrats (or condolences), Orca.

It isn't all that bad, guys. Mine is my best friend...and my favorite employer.

Though it has been a number of years, I still say it only feels like it has been 5 minutes...
...
...
...
underwater.
(j/k)


The last time you said that 5 minutes things.. SWMBO was awake when I burst out laughing.. you almost got me killed.. this time she is asleep still... so I can laugh quietly to myself :)

Quoting presslord:
My God it's nasty here today!!!! Wife cancelled her regular Wednesday golf game...and is here in the office all day with me...pointing out all my shortcomings...which are, apparently, many...
Oh how I can relate. My wife has such a tender and determined way of pointing out such things
Quoting JeffMasters:


Thanks! I'll see that Prof. Samson gets this fixed for my next lecture.

Jeff Masters


I did chuckle when the student asked you if you had parachutes in the Hurricane Hunter plane. (hmmm OK, I have just parachuted out of a plane into a hurricane, or into the eye. ...now what's next?)
Still getting 20 - 25 knots in parts of the valley in CA. And the passes in WY must be getting some wind with 25 knots showing at Casper.

RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN!!!!!!!!

Can you dig it????!!!!!


( happy Southern Californian )
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I did chuckle when the student asked you if you had parachutes in the Hurricane Hunter plane. (hmmm OK, I have just parachuted out of a plane into a hurricane, or into the eye. ...now what's next?)

That's a thought.
I wonder which way you go if you are below a hot tower in a hurricane wearing a deployed parachute. Down - or - Up?
In the interest of preserving sensitive WU male cujones, would you wickedly-handsome testosterone-laden macho guys please man up and tell me if TD 22 is really going to miss Guam, and your best guesstimates where it will end up.
(...and is it true that male-pattern baldness indicates an overabundance of testosterone?)!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
In the interest of preserving sensitive WU male cujones, would you wickedly-handsome testosterone-laden macho guys please man up and tell me if TD 22 is really going to miss Guam, and your best guesstimates where it will end up.
(...and is it true that male-pattern baldness indicates an overabudance of testosterone?)!
Give us a minute please, we must consulte with wife first!
Rain

64 °F
(18 °C)
Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: E 3 MPH
Barometer: 30.06"
Dewpoint: 64 °F (18 °C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi

100% chance of rain today. I dread these days, but cooler weather is on the way!!!

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 68.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That's a thought.
I wonder which way you go if you are below a hot tower in a hurricane wearing a deployed parachute. Down - or - Up?
Not hearing the presentation this does bring an interesting thought. What safety measures are there for the crew when in the midst of a hurricane and plane fails?
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Not hearing the presentation this does bring an interesting thought. What safety measures are there for the crew when in the midst of a hurricane and plane fails?


Quick guess... the same as all planes in the same situation.. Prayer
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Give us a minute please, we must consulte with wife first!

ROTFLMT(tushie)O
Please DO let me know what she says -- and remember, no matter what she says, she's right!
(Donations accepted in dish for unsolicited advice.)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
In the interest of preserving sensitive WU male cujones, would you wickedly-handsome testosterone-laden macho guys please man up and tell me if TD 22 is really going to miss Guam, and your best guesstimates where it will end up.
(...and is it true that male-pattern baldness indicates an overabudance of testosterone?)!

Well, I don't like this answer but it is the truth and I am man enough to admit it.

I don't have enough data sources pertinent to that area to be comfortable flying solo on that question without any model guidance. (Which we will have, in abundance in about 12 hours...about the time it would be approcahing that longitude.)

Why, it is likely only going to be a medium TS about then...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROTFLMT(tushie)O
Please DO let me know what she says -- and remember, no matter what she says, she's right!
(Donations accepted in dish for unsolicited advice.)
She said it would be wise to have an umbrella handy.
68.
Thanks, Atmo, I'll try to be quiet for about 12 hours then (AS IF, ha)!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, I don't like this answer but it is the truth and I am man enough to admit it.

I don't have enough data sources pertinent to that area to be comfortable flying solo on that question without any model guidance. (Which we will have, in abundance in about 12 hours...about the time it would be approcahing that longitude.)

Why, it is likely only going to be a medium TS about then...




I have the storm and tracks as AOI's 1&2 on my Blog

The track is 120 miles south of Guam
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Not hearing the presentation this does bring an interesting thought. What safety measures are there for the crew when in the midst of a hurricane and plane fails?


I haven't heard the presentation yet, either, and have no idea if it was addressed.

I am on a server with no sound hardware...and a depreciated video card and driver...currently. Going to look at it later.
Quoting Orcasystems:




I have the storm and tracks as AOI's 1&2 on my Blog


I know. That must be the JTWC official track.
Trusting that is about all I am willing to try to do....for now.
as far as parachuting into a hot tower....

Ewa sucked into storm and lives to tell


story of a paraglider getting stuck in a thunderstorm at going to 30,000 feet. Not the same as a parachutist but dynamics are the same
ok so i now realize you need to be careful how you title your pictures because i added the picture of the landslide in washington and now when you google "washington landslide" the picture comes up like third in my photo gallery. yikes!
Quoting eyesontheweather:
She said it would be wise to have an umbrella handy.

You are married to a wise woman, but you knew that.
7.3 inches of precip recorded yesterday at my house in San Anselmo (up against mountains). Did not break our previous 24-hour record that I recorded in Jan 2008 of 7.8 inches, but what a storm!
Anyone remember back on November 22, 2006....
...MAJOR COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
...EARLIEST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL RECORDED AT THE CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH AIRPORTS...
...THUNDER SNOW REPORTED FOR THE FIRST TIME AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT...
...SNOWS OF 1-2 INCHES REPORTED WELL INLAND...

A MAJOR AND HIGHLY UNUSUAL COASTAL STORM DEVELOPED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE STORM
BROUGHT A VARIETY OF WEATHER AND IMPACTS TO THE REGION. BELOW IS A
BRIEF SUMMARY OF THOSE IMPACTS.

...SNOW...
SLEET AND SNOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. THUNDER SNOW WAS REPORTED IN SOME
AREAS...MAINLY AROUND THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THUNDER SNOW IS A RARE EVENT NO MATTER WHERE IN THE UNITED
STATES YOU ARE...AND IT HAS NEVER BEEN REPORTED AT THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT UNTIL YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA
AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SAW A DUSTING OF SNOW...MAINLY
ON ROOF TOPS AND GRASSY AREAS. HOWEVER SNOWS OF 1-2 INCHES WERE
REPORTED IN THE FAR INTERIOR AREAS...MAINLY FROM JENKINS COUNTY
GEORGIA EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN COLLETON COUNTY SOUTH
CAROLINA.
hurricane hunter plan for air emergency

If we ever had a serious enough situation to consider bailing out over the ocean, we would be better off trying to ditch the aircraft. We do carry life preservers and there are two twenty-man rafts containing survival gear stowed in the aircraft's wings.


Hurricane Hunters Association

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

You are married to a wise woman, but you knew that.
Yes she is wise, very wise indeed. (glances over shoulder lookin if she is watching)
Had in-laws leaves on their honeymoon on a cruise to the Mexican Riviera (Puerta Vallerta, Cabo and Mazatlan). I have a feeling they are probably not feeling very well on the ship. (I went on the same route during hurricane Delilah several years back...even with the stabilizers on, everyone was pretty sea sick. that was my first AND LAST cruise!)

On another note, gotta chime in on the marriage thing. Been married for 8 years, feel like I've been with him my entire life! Is that a good thing or bad thing? ;)

Have a great day everyone!
hey all

Quoting presslord:
I'm supposed to be the boss around here...but my powers of 'boss' seem to be illusory...


After 40 years of marital (or is that martial?) bliss, there's one thing I've learned; when Momma's happy, everybody is happy!

Definitely cooler here in the Tampa Bay area today.
as far as the married thing... 2 more days =) till the I DO's. Been with her 4 3/4 yrs and love every minute of it. Now if I can just get the in-laws to get along =/
Extract from Australian Bureau Of Meteorology ENSO discussion.

Despite a slight downgrade of the magnitude of forecast warm conditions since last month, climate model predictions for the remainder of 2009 indicate that El Nino conditions will persist for at least the next 5 months. Warming in the coming months is slightly more moderate in all of the models, compared with the previous month's predictions. POAMA, JMA-CGCM02, NCEP CFS, UKMO and ECMWF models remain just above El Nino threshold levels (just above neutral). The NASA/GMAO model predicts that Nino3.4 temperatures will most likely return to neutral over the next four months, while BCC_CGCM continues its Jul-Aug trajectory of neutral conditions.

That most models are continuing to predict above-threshold sea surface temperature (SST) may reflect the fact that persistence is high at this time of year. Most models are predicting that Pacific Ocean SSTs will start to cool by March next year, which is typical timing for the decay of El Nino events.

This is also interesting.



Looks like its going to be a long hot summer down here in Australia
Bonedog - give it up on the inlaw thing...might as well wish for world peace.
LOL melwerle. I think your right LOL
This visualization won Honorable Mention in the National Science Foundation's Science and Engineering Visualization Challenge in September 2007. It was also shown during the SIGGRAPH 2008 Computer Animation Festival in Los Angeles, CA. 'Towers in the Tempest' is a 4.5 minute narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data.

The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure.

The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds.

The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Quoting melwerle:
Had in-laws leaves on their honeymoon on a cruise to the Mexican Riviera (Puerta Vallerta, Cabo and Mazatlan). I have a feeling they are probably not feeling very well on the ship. (I went on the same route during hurricane Delilah several years back...even with the stabilizers on, everyone was pretty sea sick. that was my first AND LAST cruise!)

On another note, gotta chime in on the marriage thing. Been married for 8 years, feel like I've been with him my entire life! Is that a good thing or bad thing? ;)

Have a great day everyone!


If you have to ask... its a good thing :)
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL melwerle. I think your right LOL


and if you manage to make peace, I think you'll deserve the Nobel Peace Prize LOL
Quoting melwerle:
Bonedog - give it up on the inlaw thing...might as well wish for world peace.

My mother in-law loves me, and my mother loves my wife
Hey Bonedog - if you think they don't get along NOW, wait till you have KIDS...

(KA BOOOOOOOM)


haha its off the charts... should be interesting to see the CMC category 8 doomcasts into new orleans and NYC, if this comes to pass..
Goodnight all, Be safe and take care.
My MIL was born in 1917 during the first Super Flu Epidemic...she is 92 and still spry,it was her Home west of the 17th Street Canal On Bonnabel Blvd that I went thru Katrina.

She Still Lives their with my niece too.
Quoting melwerle:
Hey Bonedog - if you think they don't get along NOW, wait till you have KIDS...

(KA BOOOOOOOM)

Hah. Then everyone's answer to a question about the kids is the right answer and no one else could possibly know what they are talking about...been there!

At one point, my wife had to remind my mother who the kids mom was and who has final say in anything. Now that my wife laid it all out like that (she has balls), they get along wonderfully. No misunderstandings...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all, Be safe and take care.


Nitey Aussie,sleep well.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Goodnight all, Be safe and take care.


have a good one
Quoting AussieStorm:

My mother in-law loves me, and my mother loves my wife.

Bonedog: Aussie has just given you one of the most important ingredients for a good marriage -- and for free!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Bonedog: Aussie has just given you one of the most important ingredients for a good marriage -- and for free!


so, when is Dr. Masters going to do a Marriage Seminar? ha ;)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Bonedog: Aussie has just given you one of the most important ingredients for a good marriage -- and for free!

I forgot to add... my mother in-law doesn't actually live in the same country. So I guess that helps. lol
BAD Marriage:

If we ever had a serious enough situation to consider bailing out over the ocean, we would be better off trying to ditch...
Quoting Bonedog:
hurricane hunter plan for air emergency

If we ever had a serious enough situation to consider bailing out over the ocean, we would be better off trying to ditch the aircraft. We do carry life preservers and there are two twenty-man rafts containing survival gear stowed in the aircraft's wings.


Hurricane Hunters Association

that is it huh? I assume you mean an inflatable 20 man raft with provisions strapped into raft and a life jacket for each person on flight. I assume in a hurricane an inflatable is equal to nothing
Today's GFS 12z is the coldest i've seen yet as it centers the high much further south:


Yea thats the big thing with my in-laws. Her side loves me but my side tries to take control.

Hey if my biggest problem is the in-laws then I feel I will be fine. We get along like best friends and even through the in-law clashes we support each other so its all good.

Now where is the time machine (looks around) want to get to the honeymoon. Leave this early winter weather behind and head to tropical paradice. Need me some rita's and white sand.
Ok i am really going now... its 3:30am and I've gotta be up with the kids at 7:30am. Gee 4 hrs sleep. no worries...lol
Quoting Bonedog:
Yea thats the big thing with my in-laws. Her side loves me but my side tries to take control.

Hey if my biggest problem is the in-laws then I feel I will be fine. We get along like best friends and even through the in-law clashes we support each other so its all good.

Now where is the time machine (looks around) want to get to the honeymoon. Leave this early winter weather behind and head to tropical paradice. Need me some rita's and white sand.

Floodman has had it under wraps for a while. You guys don't really think he is old enough to have partied with the Mayans, do ya?
Sure, he is old enough to have voted for John Adams, but he isn't that old...
Thanks Aussie for the advise. When my folks head to florida in there yearly migration things get back to normal up here for me so its just a few months out of the year I have to stress and keep the peace.

Anyways... back to the weather....


as far as weather goes... I am such a fan of Nor'Easters I had one brewed up for the wedding. Sorry everyone on the East Coast =( Just Mother Nature delivering Her wedding gift to us.


And no.. no chase pictures from the wedding during the storm. LOL
These are the Raw GFS 12z temperatures:

LOL aggie. Flood isnt that bad LOL

Yes I know he was waiting for the Titanic to come in but he's still spry =)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Ok i am really going now... its 3:30am and I've gotta be up with the kids at 7:30am. Gee 4 hrs sleep. no worries...lol

OMG, have a great power nap, Aussie, and have the honey-cheerios and long kid-videos handy.

TornadoDude -- don't know if Doc Masters is married... but marriage seminars at NOAA, NHC, etc. might be pretty entertaining.
If anyone want to accompany Presslord and Myself,and will be in New Orleans this day..we can invite a few more folks to come to this very Important US Cuba Hurricane Conference.
Just WU-mail me for RSVP information.


Patrick


1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 801

Washington, DC 20036-2000

202.232.3317 Fax: 202.232.3440

cip@ciponline.org www.ciponline.org









The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 2:45 p.m. Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 4:30 p.m. The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 5:00 p.m. President Obama's Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 6:00 p.m. Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion



Admission is free, but seating is limited. RSVP ASAP:



The Center for International Policy wishes to express its appreciation to

Atlantic Philanthropies for the support which made this conference possible.



How to get there:



The new Mardi Gras World site is not to be confused with Blaine Kern's Mardi Gras World on the West Bank. The new location is situated at the Upriver end of the Convention Center just beneath the Mississippi River Bridge, also known as the Crescent City Connection right next to the Port of New Orleans.



If arriving by I-90, exit Tchoupitoulas Street and drive Upriver following the signs to the Port Terminal. Turn on Henderson Street. Turn into the long avenue of palm trees lining the entrance to the Port of New Orleans and Mardi Gras World. Turn right upon arrival at Mardi Gras World and follow the signs to the %u201CHurricane Conference.%u201D The River City Complex is at the far end of the Mardi Gras building. Park free and enter from the river side of the building to the Iberville Reception Room where our conference is being held.
Quoting Drakoen:
These are the Raw GFS 12z temperatures:


It looks like we could go back to having evaporation exceed rainfall over here in LA. That would be a nice change.
My yard sure could use a net loss of the H2O for a while.
Quoting atmoaggie:

It looks like we could go back to having evaporation exceed rainfall over here in LA. That would be a nice change.
My yard sure could use a net loss of the H2O for a while.


My Back yard is Vary squishy,..the Sun today should help some atmo,but Storms may roll in this afternoon with the Heating.


October 13, 2009
Area Covered By Snow: 19.9%
Area Covered Last Month: 0.0%
Snow Depth
Average: 0.7 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 728.8 in
Std. Dev.: 2.1 in
Snow Water Equivalent
Average: 0.1 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 403.4 in
Std. Dev.: 0.4 in

By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:

2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9

What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
116: So in 20 years, we are going to have to reclassify Wyoming from a state to a glacier, right?
Good Afternoon! From Rainy/COLD Southeastern North Carolina...Its cold.....
117. anyone ever tell you that you efficiently distill things down to the painful truth? LOL
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OMG, have a great power nap, Aussie, and have the honey-cheerios and long kid-videos handy.

TornadoDude -- don't know if Doc Masters is married... but marriage seminars at NOAA, NHC, etc. might be pretty entertaining.


haha yeah, they would be
122. DrNo
How
Quoting DrNo:
How


How
why?
125. IKE
12Z GFS...shows nothing in the Caribbean or GOM through Oct. 30th.

EDITS>>>Oh yeah....blog is in mode today.
Endangered sea turtle who survived Hurricane Ike to be released back into the Gulf of Mexico

By The Associated Press
October 14, 2009, 12:14PM

An endangered sea turtle that apparently was washed miles inshore by Hurricane Ike and spent months trapped in a pit in Vermilion Parish is being released back into the Gulf of Mexico.

The 90-pound female Kemps Ridley sea turtle was found on Jan. 29 in a "borrow pit" in salt marsh in south Vermilion Parish, near the Rockefeller State Wildlife Refuge.

She was caught March 11 by a crew from the Audubon Institute and the state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries.

Biologists believe she may have been washed ashore by Hurricane Ike on Sept. 13, 2008.

She was satellite tagged Tuesday, and was to be released today off of Grand Isle.

The tag means scientists and anyone else who is interested can follow the turtle's travels on the seaturtle.org Web site.
i already had near a half an inch today

Quoting Patrap:


My Back yard is Vary squishy,..the Sun today should help some atmo,but Storms may roll in this afternoon with the Heating.
GOM looks to be swept cleaned all the way to the Yucatan this weekend with this next cold front and high pressure free falling down the plains
The 24 hour storm total in my backyard located on the flat ground on the east shore of SF Bay was 4.25 inches. That's a record for my backyard. I've seen that amount accumulate over several days, usually in January or February, but not in 24 hours in October.

It feels like springtime today, although a tad muggier. No doubt, and thankfully, the fire season door has slammed shut in these parts. The hills should be greening up in about a week.

Thank you Melor and El Nino.
Quoting Drakoen:
Today's GFS 12z is the coldest i've seen yet as it centers the high much further south:






um... that deep convection over new york state is right over me... don't really want a foot of snow in mid october 0_0. My local mets gave me the impression it would be a fish noreaster, but that contradicts this gfs image...
Pat...I'm looking into whether they'll let us stream some or all of the conference...except the part where you an I are drinking bourbon...
We will see that cumulus low level junk over the Gulf, basically hot water and cold air interacting, gale conditions will be rocking out there with the cold air and warm water causing a major gale
Quoting atmoaggie:

It looks like we could go back to having evaporation exceed rainfall over here in LA. That would be a nice change.
My yard sure could use a net loss of the H2O for a while.



over here in southeast ga, the rainfall has been minimal.....everybody gets the rain but us. water in our ponds and lakes are starting to slowly recede.
Quoting presslord:
Pat...I'm looking into whether they'll let us stream some or all of the conference...except the part where you an I are drinking bourbon...



Cool idea,..I'll go dry for that ,..LOL
Drak, I hope those temp progs come true! 40s would be great!
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS...shows nothing in the Caribbean or GOM through Oct. 30th.

EDITS>>>Oh yeah....blog is in mode today.
isnt that another wannabee down in the sw carib. next tuesday?
138. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
isnt that another wannabee down in the sw carib. next tuesday?


Never really does much beyond that.
140. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows a powerful hurricane in the east-PAC that crosses over into the NW GOM on the end of the run.
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows a powerful hurricane in the east-PAC that crosses over into the NW GOM on the end of the run.
and there will only be one
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows a powerful hurricane in the east-PAC that crosses over into the NW GOM on the end of the run.


You are kidding..... right????
Quoting tornadodude:


How


That pretty much just made my day.. LOL
Quoting StormW:


Mammatus
nice collapsing convective cell created that

This is a picture of accuweather's winter outlook. If you go to the website and watch the video on it, this may very well come true...
the area near 50w 12n seems to have alittle twist
147. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


You are kidding..... right????


LOL....no. Wouldn't be much left to it crossing over Mexico.
Well, i guess the picture will not come up. You will have to go too the website yourself.
Quoting pearlandaggie:


October 13, 2009
Area Covered By Snow: 19.9%
Area Covered Last Month: 0.0%
Snow Depth
Average: 0.7 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 728.8 in
Std. Dev.: 2.1 in
Snow Water Equivalent
Average: 0.1 in
Minimum: 0.0 in
Maximum: 403.4 in
Std. Dev.: 0.4 in

By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:

2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9

What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.



its all this dam global warming...
150. IKE
Quoting Hurricane009:
Well, i guess the picture will not come up. You will have to go too the website yourself.


I tried to post their temperature and precip outlooks for winter 2009-2010 earlier today on here and it wouldn't let me post either.
149. i'll give you one of these just like atmo...LOL!

Quoting pearlandaggie:
149. i'll give you one of these just like atmo...LOL!




hahahaha yeah, but its just another fact that the people that wanna shove it down your throat don't even mention
152. just remember...weather is not climate.
We're all gonna die..LOL



At least these usually aren't real accurate..
154. LOL...who let the second grader with the blue crayon near the computer again!
right, its the warmer weather that makes us have more snow?
isn't it obvious? glad you're finally coming around on this issue! LOL
159. JLPR
the most good looking circulation in the Atlantic and it isn't tropical xD



Quoting Skyepony:
We're all gonna die..LOL



At least these usually aren't real accurate..


yes but with that i'm sure 1 more storm is possible.
160. hopefully it won't be a Mitch repeat....
Quoting Drakoen:
These are the Raw GFS 12z temperatures:



oh hell sub 45 degrees, good thing I sleep in on the weekends.
Looks like the depression 22W that will be named Lupit will be another big threat to northern Philippines late next week. Not based on any models or data I've seen other than forecast of subtropical ridge building from west according to JTWC.

Yet another typhoon for Philippines - reminds me of the FL hurricanes of '04
Quoting timtrice:
Looks like the depression 22W that will be named Lupit will be another big threat to northern Philippines late next week. Not based on any models or data I've seen other than forecast of subtropical ridge building from west according to JTWC.

Yet another typhoon for Philippines - reminds me of the FL hurricanes of '04


The track will have to shift a fair amount South of the track to get there.

Quoting Orcasystems:


The track will have to shift a fair amount South of the track to get there.



Besides obvious traditional forecast errors at that point and in addition to the cyclone already traveling slightly south of forecast, I'd say my statement was fair. Not predicting a landfall. But, when talking about transitioning ridges it always seems the 2nd ridge pushes cyclones west-southwest for a short period of time as they expand

Just purely gut instincts - not based on data.
And Parma is still alive 40mph ts. DIE ALREADY.
Quoting Skyepony:
We're all gonna die..LOL



At least these usually aren't real accurate..


LOL...now that's funny, Skyepony!
Someone posted this on my blog - thought I'd share with you guys.



12 NASA hurricane photos from space (http://tinyurl.com/ylac7q3)


Look the satellite crashed. LOL
I have a few questions....

How do you post a portrait and has anyone seen 456?
From my personal met (fiance) up in Frostburg, MD - It's snowing.

This is about the earliest I've seen it up here in MD... I think I was 1 the last time it snowed before my birthday(tomorrow).
Quoting AtlantaMET:
I have a few questions....

How do you post a portrait and has anyone seen 456?


You just need the HTTP address and hit the image button where you add your comments at.
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows a powerful hurricane in the east-PAC that crosses over into the NW GOM on the end of the run.

into nw mx lol also its moisture will bring more rain to tx
175. JLPR
disturbance on the East Atl

Quoting JLPR:
the most good looking circulation in the Atlantic and it isn't tropical xD




With how the NHC has been tagging systems in the NATL this year, might as well name an invest, too.
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF shows a powerful hurricane in the east-PAC that crosses over into the NW GOM on the end of the run.


It wouldn't suprise me in the least if this happens. My daughter's and I are supposed to go to Corpus Christi, TX on 11-2 to 11-4. Not that I really want to see the NW GOM get hit by a Hurricane. And the odds of any Hurricane making it across the nation of Mexico is small.
Quoting Bordonaro:


It wouldn't suprise me in the least if this happens. My daughter's and I are supposed to go to Corpus Christi, TX on 11-2 to 11-4. Not that I really want to see the NW GOM get hit by a Hurricane. And the odds of any Hurricane making it across the nation of Mexico is small.

Small is an understatement. The spine of Mexico has a pair of mountain ranges, with mountains from 12k-16k. Going over that will make going over Hispaniola look like a speedbump.
179. IKE
Quoting jeffs713:

Small is an understatement. The spine of Mexico has a pair of mountain ranges, with mountains from 12k-16k. Going over that will make going over Hispaniola look like a speedbump.


I looked at that model run a few times just to make sure it was having the East-PAC cane crossing over and it sure looks like it to me.

I'm with you...can't really see that happening.


Here's what today's prognostic discussion says about the East-PAC system...

"PRIOR TO THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, NUMERICAL MODELS STRONGLY INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
Quoting timtrice:
Someone posted this on my blog - thought I'd share with you guys.



12 NASA hurricane photos from space (http://tinyurl.com/ylac7q3)
That is one of the coolest hurricane pictures I have ever seen...Thank you for taking the time to post it.
Japan Meteorological Agency

TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PARMA (T0917)
20.0ºN 106.0ºE - 25 knots 1012 hPa

Subject: Tropical Depression In Gulf Of Tonkin (Near Vietnam)

System #2
----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER NEPARTAK (T0919)
37.0ºN 168.0ºE - 1000 hPa

Subject: Developing Low In Sea East Of Japan
182. IKE
Front makes it all the way to the Cayman Islands. Big weather change just hours away.....

Monday's map.....

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "24"
3:00 AM JST October 15 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression near Marianas Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.2N 146.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 22 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.5N 141.3E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting IKE:
Front makes it all the way to the Cayman Islands. Big weather change just hours away.....

Monday's map.....

Surf will be up then!!
This just plain SUCKS!!! (if it happens like this)

The ECMWF turns 22W into a major hurricane striking the northern Phillipines:

187. IKE
From New Orleans discussion...

"SAT THROUGH MON...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. MDLS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LOOKING AT THE SFC DEWPOINTS AND PLACEMENT
OF THE SFC HIGH MON MORNING WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCH THE
UPPER 30S.
UNTIL MON MORNING THE SFC WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NW AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP LL WINDS UP ENOUGH TO KEEP RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
FROM BECOMING OPTIMAL. FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING COULD SEE THE AREA
PLAGUED WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME DZ WITH THE H85 THERMAL
TROUGH STILL JUST OFF TO OUR NW. NOT READY TO QUITE SHOW THAT YET
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AS WE CAN TYPICALLY CLEAR OUT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND A STRONG FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN 6HRS OR SO
LATER AND THEN REMAINING OVER THE REGION UNTIL THE LL THERMAL TROUGH
PUSHES EAST. SAT COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WINDY. MUCH STRONGER CAA
WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SAT. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL TO AT LEAST H85 WHERE WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH AS
45KTS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT JUST ENOUGH WE WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING DOWN THESE STRONGER LL WINDS TO THE SFC. SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD APPROACH 30MPH WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 40-45MPH DURING
THE DAY SAT.
WINDS WILL RELAX OVER THE LAND AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVN
HRS. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS MODERATING WITH SHRA
TRYING TO RETURN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE NEXT
WEEK."
Don't usually see fronts making that far south this early do you?Nothing normal about this pattern we're in.
189. IKE
Wind chill factor for Mobile,AL...

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALL GUIDANCE IS SAYING BELOW SEASONAL FOR
TEMPS...JUST FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR FALL TO ARRIVE.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A STRONG ENOUGH COLD SURGE FOR COLD SURGE
STRATUS...MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO WORK TOWARDS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING DRY AT THIS TIME.
Quoting IKE:
Wind chill factor for Mobile,AL...

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.


Geez I may have to button up the Jeep when it moves this way. Doors/windows/top go on for sure when it gets below 50. Always hope to make it to November.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't usually see fronts making that far south this early do you?Nothing normal about this pattern we're in.


lows for Tallahassee average 56-57 around this time of year, we have been a bit above average in temps, spare a few days. Then again this is my first year in Tallahassee and the temps may just be an average of 45-50 degree lows against 70 degree lows.
192. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


Geez I may have to button up the Jeep when it moves this way. Doors/windows/top go on for sure when it gets below 50. Always hope to make it to November.


May come early this year. From Mobile's discussion...

"LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA MOVING OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY......THEN STARTS TO SWING SLOWLY EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. THERE
IS EVEN SOME HINTING OF SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING."

same for Tallahassee winds 10-15mph in the morning to early afternoon hours before becoming calm.

Got one more day before the chill comes in, guess I'll enjoy it.
Quoting IKE:


May come early this year. From Mobile's discussion...

"LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLDER AIR SOUTH OVER THE AREA MOVING OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY......THEN STARTS TO SWING SLOWLY EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. THERE
IS EVEN SOME HINTING OF SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY MORNING."




Quoting Drakoen:





Drakoen, does this signify the end of our cane season?
196. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:





Thirties just to the edge of the Florida panhandle. That's a big change. Miami down to 59.
Quoting IKE:


Thirties just to the edge of the Florida panhandle. That's a big change. Miami down to 59.


THE LATEST 14/12Z GFS CAME IN MUCH LOWER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COOL IT WILL GET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE TO SOUTH FL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL BRING ABOUT OUR
END TO THE "RAINY SEASON" AS A REFRESHING LONG AWAITED AIRMASS
FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES INTO THE AREA.
WOW. This is boring.
Also that's just the RAW GFS data. There is likely to be local modification.
Quoting AtlantaMET:
WOW. This is boring.


I know, welcome to the club. instead of talking about the tropics, we're instead talking about temp. readings. LMAO.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I know, welcome to the club. instead of talking about the tropics, we're instead talking about temp. readings. LMAO.
The computer models are weird for this time of year, and so is the weather. Something unusual is going to happen in the next two weeks...jmo
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I know, welcome to the club. instead of talking about the tropics, we're instead talking about temp. readings. LMAO.


Why do people say there is more to weather than hurricanes and when there is none, we have nothing to talk about. This cold weather airmass will eventually go away and then what? This is rather boring.
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Why do people say there is more to weather than hurricanes and when there is none, we have nothing to talk about. This cold weather airmass will eventually go away and then what? This is rather boring.
We will track cyclones in the southern hemisphere and nor,easters here I guess..:)
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Why do people say there is more to weather than hurricanes and when there is none, we have nothing to talk about. This cold weather airmass will eventually go away and then what? This is rather boring.


so much for you being a met
205. IKE
Quoting ElConando:


so much for you being a met


LOL!
Quoting hydrus:
We will track cyclones in the southern hemisphere and nor,easters here I guess..:)


That's true. You think we will have the wishcasters and downcasters for those regions?
Quoting AtlantaMET:


That's true. You think we will have the wishcasters and downcasters for those regions?
yes.
Quoting hydrus:
The computer models are weird for this time of year, and so is the weather. Something unusual is going to happen in the next two weeks...jmo


Absolutely, I bluntly toroughly concur with your written statement there, sir. I very much believe that is incoming major pattern change will not fully materialize without a drastic repercussion actually taking place as a result of it. It is just how all branches of meteorology appear to work. However, if I need up being wrong on my prediction, so be it then, I was wrong. But I'm very much doubt that I'll be wrong.
Quoting ElConando:


so much for you being a met


I have not said one word to you yet you attack me and that is why this blog takes one step forward and five steps backward each day. It is my opinion that cold weather is boring and I am entitled to it.
Quoting hydrus:
yes.


OK :)
I have also notice over the past 6 months, that the persons that claim to reside in Florida are the meanest here and that says alot.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Don't usually see fronts making that far south this early do you?Nothing normal about this pattern we're in.

Well, we got a front out into the GoM in each July, August, and September. That alone is highly unusual.

We haven't had weather like this in 30 years...(hint, hint)
Quoting AtlantaMET:


I have not said one word to you yet you attack me and that is why this blog takes one step forward and five steps backward each day. It is my opinion that cold weather is boring and I am entitled to it.


lol that was a bit of dry humor, sorry about that, I know plenty of Mets who hate the cold. Specifically the ones in SFLA :p

There is this guy though,

img src="" alt="" />
214. P451
Apparently this East Coast system is turning serious. They're calling for 8.5 foot flooding in my county. 7.5 foot is the threshold for serious coastal flooding.

They're talking about TWO storms back to back at that.

This has come a long way from a "30 percent chance of showers." that was in the forecast early yesterday. Now we have flood warnings, wind warnings, 100% chance of heavy rain, etc - in the forecast.

This winter is going to be crazy.
Quoting AtlantaMET:
I have also notice over the past 6 months, that the persons that claim to reside in Florida are the meanest here and that says alot.


You maybe onto something - Drak and hurricane23 are from Floirda and if WS, jp and IKE are from Florida that would almost confirm your theory that a greater percentage of mean poeple here are from Floirda.
Quoting P451:
Apparently this East Coast system is turning serious. They're calling for 8.5 foot flooding in my county. 7.5 foot is the threshold for serious coastal flooding.

They're talking about TWO storms back to back at that.

This has come a long way from a "30 percent chance of showers." that was in the forecast early yesterday. Now we have flood warnings, wind warnings, 100% chance of heavy rain, etc - in the forecast.

This winter is going to be crazy.


Holy, expletive, expletive, expletive!!! :P

wow hope that doesn't come to pass, gets some sandbags they may help if the worst happens, remember snow turns into water.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You maybe onto something - Drak and hurricane23 are from Floirda and if WS, jp and IKE are from Florida that would almost confirm your theory that a greater percentage of mean poeple here are from Floirda.


I would not go so far.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


You maybe onto something - Drak and hurricane23 are from Floirda and if WS, jp and IKE are from Florida that would almost confirm your theory that a greater percentage of mean poeple here are from Floirda.


mean as the statistical mean or the attitude mean? just curious, cause you never elaborated in that regards. thanx
Quoting WeatherStudent:


mean as the statistical mean or the attitude mean? just curious, cause you never elaborated in that regards. thanx


you poli sci majors... :P jk I am one too atm but I'll likely change to a public policy major later on.
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Why do people say there is more to weather than hurricanes and when there is none, we have nothing to talk about. This cold weather airmass will eventually go away and then what? This is rather boring.


If that is all there is to being a met, 99.6% of us are in the wrong job.

And cold weather isn't always boring.

Here is an example. Baton Rouge in December 20 years ago with a high of 25, and low of 9, a dewpoint below 0, and 25 mph gusts.


People were walking on the LSU lakes, which froze rather solidly with a lot of 1 foot waves on the surface (it was windy, duh.)

All was fun until Exxon went kablooey...80 year old pipe fittings that were not meant for single digit temps did what they do when that condition is met.
Hey, what about me? I am an a-hole, but have nothing at all to do with FL.
Quoting ElConando:


Holy, expletive, expletive, expletive!!! :P

wow hope that doesn't come to pass, gets some sandbags they may help if the worst happens, remember snow turns into water.
Some of the models do forecast a potent storm system hitting the East Coast of the U.S. there may be good reason the interests in the region to be concerned.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


mean as the statistical mean or the attitude mean? just curious, cause you never elaborated in that regards. thanx


Your attitude can stink sometimes, however, you are not as mean as I placed you to be but to show you how mean poeple can be. Where I come from, we stick up for each other and many have said how disgusted they are of you yet they don't have you on ignore because they are using you as entertainment and no one should be degraded and humilated to that extent. I have also blamed your resiliance on the fact that Drakoen created you (you two are the same persons), however, I have no proof.
Just browsing the Preliminary Wind reports from yesterdays Pacific Coast Storm, peak wind gust reported during the storm:

Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gust
Location: 5 NW TAHOE CITY
Local Date: 10/13/2009
Local Time: 6:00 PM PDT
County: PLACER
State: CA
Source: MESONET
Magnitude: M135 MPH

Comments: PEAK GUST OVER THE SIERRA CREST.

Link below to the 10 most memrorable weather events in California, notice the highest wing gust was an est 192MPH in Arvin, CA, in the valley..

Link
225. IKE
I'm mean. I put hurricaneseason2006 on my ignore list.

And if cold weather is boring to an Atlanta "met". I'm sure residents of Atlanta would take cold over...Link


Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh! (And I know dewpoints will be just below those lows. Yay, dry,)

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 69.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 74.
I'm mean. I put hurricaneseason2006 on my ignore list.

I thought his handle was the default tester that was installed on everybody's ignore list when they signed up...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, what about me? I am an a-hole, but have nothing at all to do with FL.


Texas is too big to leave anyway.

edit: I forgot you don't live there... anymore?
Quoting IKE:
I'm mean. I put hurricaneseason2006 on my ignore list.

And if cold weather is boring to an Atlanta "met". I'm sure residents of Atlanta would take cold over...Link




You are always talking about tropics boring, tropics this and that and when anybody says anything you state it's your opinion. Well I deserve to be treated just the way you want to be treated.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Your attitude can stink sometimes, however, you are not as mean as I placed you to be but to show you how mean poeple can be. Where I come from, we stick up for each other and many have said how disgusted they are of you yet they don't have you on ignore because they are using you as entertainment and no one should be degraded and humilated to that extent. I have also blamed your resiliance on the fact that Drakoen created you (you two are the same persons), however, I have no proof.
Using you as entertainment-lol
Quoting atmoaggie:


If that is all there is to being a met, 99.6% of us are in the wrong job.

And cold weather isn't always boring.

Here is an example. Baton Rouge in December 20 years ago with a high of 25, and low of 9, a dewpoint below 0, and 25 mph gusts.


People were walking on the LSU lakes, which froze rather solidly with a lot of 1 foot waves on the surface (it was windy, duh.)

All was fun until Exxon went kablooey...80 year old pipe fittings that were not meant for single digit temps did what they do when that condition is met.
i remember that year. lived in destin, fl. at that time and the week long freezing cold during the day and some of choctawhatchee bay froze up.
Philippines could get smacked by yet another major cyclone, sad whats going on over there already with the storms that have hit it already but this, it will be like hitting someones face who already has a horribly bad migraine.
Quoting ElConando:


Texas is too big to leave anyway.

edit: I forgot you don't live there... anymore?

Nope. I was merely a visitor in TX.

You are correct, though. Back before cars, Texans wanting to visit somewhere else (a mythical place in the minds of whole generations of Texans), well they used horseback-mounted hypersleep cocoons, a technology now lost. See, they had to use those or send a very young person as anyone in their 20s, or older, would surely perish before they reached the Sabine River (LA) or Red River (OK).

All of the above comes with special exceptions for Floodman. He still uses his hypresleep cocoon, now adapted for a Harley.
235. xcool
UP 30 TEMP IN SLIDELL LA.by Friday .OH NOOOO
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nope. I was merely a visitor in TX.

You are correct, though. Back before cars, Texans wanting to visit somewhere else (a mythical place in the minds of whole generations of Texans), well they used horseback-mounted hypersleep cocoons, a technology now lost. See, they had to use those or send a very young person as anyone in their 20s, or older, would surely perish before they reached the Sabine River (LA) or Red River (OK).

All of the above comes with special exceptions for Floodman. He still uses his hypresleep cocoon, now adapted for a Harley.


I'm sure he falls asleep to Hendrix too
Quoting ElConando:


I'm sure he falls asleep to Hendrix too

No, he cries himself to sleep listening to Janis.
I'm a Floridian as well.
The milk of human kindness flows through my veins.

...snort...chuckle...heh heh heh ...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Nope. I was merely a visitor in TX.

You are correct, though. Back before cars, Texans wanting to visit somewhere else (a mythical place in the minds of whole generations of Texans), well they used horseback-mounted hypersleep cocoons, a technology now lost. See, they had to use those or send a very young person as anyone in their 20s, or older, would surely perish before they reached the Sabine River (LA) or Red River (OK).

All of the above comes with special exceptions for Floodman. He still uses his hypresleep cocoon, now adapted for a Harley.
Yes, one can circum-navigate the known Universe with cocoon in 56 Earth years. But by the time the task is complete, the Earth, Sun and planets will no longer be in existence...
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, one can circum-navigate the known Universe with cocoon in 56 Earth years. But by the time the task is complete, the Earth, Sun and planets will no longer be in existence...

Hate when that happens.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I'm a Floridian as well.
The milk of human kindness flows through my veins.

...snort...chuckle...heh heh heh ...

LOL.
The Ring of Fire is certainly on fire.
So AtlantaMET (Mealy Egotistical Twit)

You find it boring when there's no hurricanes? Boring when friends and loved ones aren't in danger of losing their homes and their livelihoods?

You obviously don't have to pay homeowner's insurance. Or even worry about your own food for that matter.

Why don't you challenge yourself. See, spring's right around the corner. You want exciting? Learn how to track tornadoes. Find the hailstorms. Learn about the thermodynamics page on the SPC site.

How about watching an F4 destroy a dorm at 10pm at night? Is that exciting enough for you?

Quit your whining here. There's plenty of people here who DO care about all sorts of weather, 24-7-365. Go play your Wii or something.
Quoting Rmadillo:
So AtlantaMET (Mealy Egotistical Twit)

You find it boring when there's no hurricanes? Boring when friends and loved ones aren't in danger of losing their homes and their livelihoods?

You obviously don't have to pay homeowner's insurance. Or even worry about your own food for that matter.

Why don't you challenge yourself. See, spring's right around the corner. You want exciting? Learn how to track tornadoes. Find the hailstorms. Learn about the thermodynamics page on the SPC site.

How about watching an F4 destroy a dorm at 10pm at night? Is that exciting enough for you?

Quit your whining here. There's plenty of people here who DO care about all sorts of weather, 24-7-365. Go play your Wii or something.


Stop putting words into my mouth. I never said that I like the excitement of the destruction hurricanes or tornado cause. These natural diasters are beyond our control so whether I find the excitement in tracking learning from them is totally different from the lies you conspiring against me.
ATMO---I don,t. I truly appreciate the view and the scenery during my journeys through our Universe. bubbling noise=bong hit...
Bwaaa-haha-hah-haaaa!!!

I challenge you to study harder in your grammar classes as well!!
248. IKE
Atlanta,GA. has had 18.68 inches of rain since September 1st, 2009. Terrible flooding around the area. Portlight has helped a family that lost everything. Quite a few lost everything...some even died...and someone is on here talking about how boring cold weather is.
250. IKE
Bye-bye AtlantaMet......fire away at me....

***POOF!***
Quoting AtlantaMET:
WOW. This is boring.

I am not a meteorologist, and I'm not certain if you are or not. I am not trying to be sarcastic, insulting or rude.

If you want some excitement as a meteorologist, go apply at the SFC in Norman, OK, the NHC in Miami, FL or the Joint Typhoon Weather Command with the US Military. And if you're a meteorologist and you find this boring, you have chosen the WRONG career.

Be blessed and peace..
Quoting IKE:
Atlanta,GA. has had 18.68 inches of rain since September 1st, 2009. Terrible flooding around the area. Portlight has helped a family that lost everything. Quite a few lost everything...and someone is on here talking about how boring cold weather is.


You are 50? What the hell is wrong with me saying cold weather is boring? You acting like a baby.
Quoting IKE:
Atlanta,GA. has had 18.68 inches of rain since September 1st, 2009. Terrible flooding around the area. Portlight has helped a family that lost everything. Quite a few lost everything...and someone is on here talking about how boring cold weather is.
some are not happy till others are suffering be happy its boring and with winter coming on lets hope it stays boring not nice sleeping out in the cold
this is not HIV which was created in a lab by scientists.


OMG...where's Presslord when we need him...this is like sticking firecrackers in an ant bed!

BWAA-HAHAHA-HAHA!!!
Quoting IKE:
Bye-bye AtlantaMet......fire away at me....

***POOF!***


haha yeah, also if he is a MET, what type is he?
256. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some are not happy till others are suffering be happy its boring and with winter coming on lets hope it stays boring not nice sleeping out in the cold


So true.
this is not HIV which was created in a lab by scientists.

ok...I don't come in here very often, 'cause let's face it...I know NOTHING about the weather....but WTF is this statement doing on the Main Blog?????????
He's no met!

He doesn't know the difference between Prozac and Proenza...doesn't know the difference between and SST and an STD!!

Fire away!
I cannot believe this. Every morning IKE comes on and complain how boring the hurricane season is and I get attacked for saying cold weather is boring?
Every morning IKE comes on and complain how boring the hurricane season is

Falsehoods and conspiracies! Ike is quite thankful that none of us had to face anything this year.

We ALL are, a'littleMET.
met you will get nowhere with this
Quoting ElConando:


lol that was a bit of dry humor, sorry about that, I know plenty of Mets who hate the cold. Specifically the ones in SFLA :p

There is this guy though,



is that bernie? i cant stand him
Quoting Rmadillo:
So AtlantaMET (Mealy Egotistical Twit)

You find it boring when there's no hurricanes? Boring when friends and loved ones aren't in danger of losing their homes and their livelihoods?

You obviously don't have to pay homeowner's insurance. Or even worry about your own food for that matter.

Why don't you challenge yourself. See, spring's right around the corner. You want exciting? Learn how to track tornadoes. Find the hailstorms. Learn about the thermodynamics page on the SPC site.

How about watching an F4 destroy a dorm at 10pm at night? Is that exciting enough for you?

Quit your whining here. There's plenty of people here who DO care about all sorts of weather, 24-7-365. Go play your Wii or something.


Well spoken and 5 POINTS for you for that comment.
Thanks bordonaro!

The 18-wheelers are calling, and there's highways to cross.

Rmadillo OUT!!!
In My opinon, And my opinon only, I think that this Hurricane Season is over for, although i won't rule out one more storm.
This blog used to be full of weather enthusiasts but now people are being attacked for saying that hurricane season is boring.
Quoting Rmadillo:
So AtlantaMET (Mealy Egotistical Twit)

You find it boring when there's no hurricanes? Boring when friends and loved ones aren't in danger of losing their homes and their livelihoods?

You obviously don't have to pay homeowner's insurance. Or even worry about your own food for that matter.

Why don't you challenge yourself. See, spring's right around the corner. You want exciting? Learn how to track tornadoes. Find the hailstorms. Learn about the thermodynamics page on the SPC site.

How about watching an F4 destroy a dorm at 10pm at night? Is that exciting enough for you?

Quit your whining here. There's plenty of people here who DO care about all sorts of weather, 24-7-365. Go play your Wii or something.


why is it when someone says things wx is boring theres always some fool who gets melodramatic with damage? first, nature is a fact of life. get over it. second, many of us love the raw fury but i know of no one who wants to see people lose property and lives.

BTW, I'm bored this hurricane season, an Ike survivor, my GF's a Katrina evacuee AND we're homeowners. so shut your mouth
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Absolutely, I bluntly toroughly concur with your written statement there, sir. I very much believe that is incoming major pattern change will not fully materialize without a drastic repercussion actually taking place as a result of it. It is just how all branches of meteorology appear to work. However, if I need up being wrong on my prediction, so be it then, I was wrong. But I'm very much doubt that I'll be wrong.


You should reconsider being a political science major as you've butchered the English language and grammar to a point of no return.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


You should reconsider being a political science major as you've butchered the English language and grammar to a point of no return.
he has always been at a point of no return
Hendrix, Joplin, throw in a little Allman Brothers, now we're talking.

Guess I'm going to have to keep an eye on TS22 for my Vietnamese friends. And poor Philippines.


p.s. WS and Drakoen have different shower curtains, proof they are not one and the same. :)
hey Pcola Dan!


:)
Good evening all,

I have been on the water all day trying to surf for my dear life, lol. It's an old hobby I am trying to rediscover, but is not going so well.

Post 268

I agree with you, why do people bring up damage and lives when it comes to hurricanes et al. I love hurricanes but half my house was destroyed in Georges. I was trapped in my house for 2 days after the eye came over. I love tropical systems and the tropics in general becuz of that storm and not a big fan of cold weather, of course you guys know where I live but it does not make a terrible/bad/wishful person. I don't even track some WPAC typhoons that cause so much damage so is this an Atlantic thing? I understand that these systems do cause damage but it's beyond me and you and no one should be forced into guilt for wanting to track them.
52 Degrees here right now. The temperature is lower then the dew point, so our windows and glass doors are fogging up. And to add to the situation, It is pouring down rain!... Dreary Day.
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all,

I have been on the water all day trying to surf for my dear life, lol. It's an old hobby I am trying to rediscover, but is not going so well.

Post 268

I agree with you, why do people bring up damage and lives when it comes to hurricanes et al. I love hurricanes but half my house was destroyed in Georges. I was trapped in my house for 2 days after the eye came over. I love tropical systems and the tropics in general becuz of that storm and not a big fan of cold weather, of course you guys know where I live but it does not make a terrible/bad/wishful person. I don't even track some WPAC typhoons that cause so much damage so is this an Atlantic thing? I understand that these systems do cause damage but it's beyond me and you and no one should be forced into guilt for wanting to track them.
I don't think I'd be any good trying to surf, especially when the waves are big. I'd stick with weather forecasting! :D
277. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all,

I have been on the water all day trying to surf for my dear life, lol. It's an old hobby I am trying to rediscover, but is not going so well.

Post 268

I agree with you, why do people bring up damage and lives when it comes to hurricanes et al. I love hurricanes but half my house was destroyed in Georges. I was trapped in my house for 2 days after the eye came over. I love tropical systems and the tropics in general becuz of that storm and not a big fan of cold weather, of course you guys know where I live but it does not make a terrible/bad/wishful person. I don't even track some WPAC typhoons that cause so much damage so is this an Atlantic thing? I understand that these systems do cause damage but it's beyond me and you and no one should be forced into guilt for wanting to track them.


Amen, I agree
also I cant surf even to save my life :|
I suck at it xD
Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: NE 14 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1016.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 52 °F (11 °C)
Wind Chill: 50 °F (10 °C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
Quoting AtlantaMET:
This blog used to be full of weather enthusiasts but now people are being attacked for saying that hurricane season is boring.

I enjoy and LOVE Tropical weather, and I HATE the damage and loss of life they cause, just want to be sure that is 100% clear!

Alot of people, including myself, were disappointed by Atlantic Basin's hurricane season. But there is the E PAC and W PAC that have been busy, oh, 40 Tropical Systems verses our 8!

The remnants of STY Melor hooked up with the Sub-Tropical Jet, dropped up to 21 inches of rain in 1 location, broke all types of rainfall records all over the state of CA. The San Francisco newspaper stated that this was the strongest October storm in more than 30 yrs. Several Hurricane Force wind gusts along the coast and a gusts to 129 and 135MPH were reported in the High Sierra just outside of Lake Tahoe, CA. Over 400,000 households lost power at one time or another in CA yesterday. Trees were down, one hit a school bus with a driver and 3 children on board, no injuries, a dust storm caused a fatality and 6 injuries near Bakersfield, CA.

I do NOT think that these events are boring. No one is trying to hurt you, BUT pointed out your statement appears to be misspoken, maybe foolish!
280. JLPR
Area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atl



besides that... nothing else in the tropics...
for the Atlantic obviously xD
Since I can't post the map from Accuweather's Winter Forecast, i will just tell you their winter outlook. They are saying that the Southeast from Texas, to My area ( North Carolina) Will recieve Several Ice/Snowstorms and Cold and Snowy Weather, meaning that this winter will be one of the most dangerous winters for the Southeast in along time. Everywhere else will recieve Less Snow, and warmer/drier weather. Dallas, Little Rock,...etc will recieve very traverse conditions due to all the storms. Now, the way the sub - tropical jet is coming, this prediction may very well come true. :)
282. xcool


283. JLPR
=O
Extra tropical low got a comma shape =O probably a hurricane already


Im super bored lol =P
As a weather enthusiast myself, I will say that I love to track hurricanes. But that's where I draw the line. I do not enjoy the death and destruction they bring, and if at all possible, I would prefer they all stay away from land.

However, that is pure ideology, the likes of which will have zero effect on whether or not a hurricane eventually strikes land. Because hurricanes are a necessary part of our life, they will continue to impact our coastlines. The best we can do is hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

I may not enjoy death and destruction, but you have to look at things from a realistic point of view, and not one full of unfounded hope. The truth is, hurricanes will continue to wreak havoc on our coastlines, regardless of whether or not we wish for them to do so.

Sure, it is a noble ideal indeed, to wish for hurricanes to stay away from land, but that's all it is -- idealism.
285. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:

I enjoy and LOVE Tropical weather, and I HATE the damage and loss of life they cause, just want to be sure that is 100% clear!

Alot of people, including myself, were disappointed by Atlantic Basin's hurricane season. But there is the E PAC and W PAC that have been busy, oh, 40 Tropical Systems verses our 8!

The remnants of STY Melor hooked up with the Sub-Tropical Jet, dropped up to 21 inches of rain in 1 location, broke all types of rainfall records all over the state of CA. The San Francisco newspaper stated that this was the strongest October storm in more than 30 yrs. Several Hurricane Force wind gusts along the coast and a gusts to 129 and 135MPH were reported in the High Sierra just outside of Lake Tahoe, CA. Over 400,000 households lost power at one time or another in CA yesterday. Trees were down, one hit a school bus with a driver and 3 children on board, no injuries, a dust storm caused a fatality and 6 injuries near Bakersfield, CA.

I do NOT think that these events are boring. No one is trying to hurt you, BUT pointed out your statement appears to be misspoken, maybe foolish!


with all due respect, I see nothing wrong with his statement. He never said or even implied that he wanted an Atlantic system or any tropical system to hit land. It seems to me that he wants a tropical system to track in the Atlantic basin, nothing more, nothing less.

And, posts 268 and 274 are spot on, When extreme weather occurs, instead of being melodramatic about it, we should try to explain it and discuss it in a rational way. If need be, we could give advice for those who lurk on this blog, but may not be as weather or scientifically inclined, the tools and analysis to help them handle the extreme weather. All of this is JMHO.
286. xcool
Quoting NRAamy:
hey Pcola Dan!


:)


Hey
288. JLPR
Quoting KoritheMan:
As a weather enthusiast myself, I will say that I love to track hurricanes. But that's where I draw the line. I do not enjoy the death and destruction they bring, and if at all possible, I would prefer they all stay away from land.

However, that is pure ideology, the likes of which will have zero effect on whether or not a hurricane eventually strikes land. Because hurricanes are a necessary part of our life, they will continue to impact our coastlines. The best we can do is hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

I may not enjoy death and destruction, but you have to look at things from a realistic point of view, and not one full of unfounded hope. The truth is, hurricanes will continue to wreak havoc on our coastlines, regardless of whether or not we wish for them to do so.

Sure, it is a noble ideal indeed, to wish for hurricanes to stay away from land, but that's all it is -- idealism.


lol the only thing I hate more than Hurricanes striking land is the construction companies for making houses so close to the coast XD
I hope it snows on Christmas...
My latest local weather forecast for Everett, PA 4:30PM


291. amd
Quoting Hurricane009:
Since I can't post the map from Accuweather's Winter Forecast, i will just tell you their winter outlook. They are saying that the Southeast from Texas, to My area ( North Carolina) Will recieve Several Ice/Snowstorms and Cold and Snowy Weather, meaning that this winter will be one of the most dangerous winters for the Southeast in along time. Everywhere else will recieve Less Snow, and warmer/drier weather. Dallas, Little Rock,...etc will recieve very traverse conditions due to all the storms. Now, the way the sub - tropical jet is coming, this prediction may very well come true. :)


Seems like Joe B and Accuweather think that this winter will be similar to the winter of 2002 and 2003. And, in this case, I think they have it nailed. It looks like the El Nino has already switched from an eastern pacific ocean based El Nino, to a central pacific based El Nino, with the most warming occurring west of the international date line.

It remains to be seen whether we have a mostly negative nao, or a mostly positive nao, during the coldest months of winter.
NASA's giss numbers are out for Sept..drum roll... 2nd hottest Sept since 1880, behind 2005 of course.
Quoting amd:


Seems like Joe B and Accuweather think that this winter will be similar to the winter of 2002 and 2003. And, in this case, I think they have it nailed. It looks like the El Nino has already switched from an eastern pacific ocean based El Nino, to a central pacific based El Nino, with the most warming occurring west of the international date line.

It remains to be seen whether we have a mostly negative nao, or a mostly positive nao, during the coldest months of winter.
yeah...
Quoting Hurricane009:
I hope it snows on Christmas...


me too!
hey guys am i looking at this right or am i this seeing things



your going too say oh my and wow


this storm is so strong so pack that the #s on it are all overe the plac




you cant make out the # vary well but if am looking at this right am seeing a 925mb to 934mb storm on the 132hr run


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_132.shtml


not a joke




this is not a joke and am not makeing this up



on this one it looks like the low fills in at 941mbs


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_144.shtml

Quoting tornadodude:


me too!
Usually, you would have a better chance of it then i do, but accuweather is saying that we will have a beter chance this year...Have you ever had a White Christmas?? I haven't. I have had a White Thanksgiving :D, but not a white christmas
Taz~ maybe it has something to do with the gfs mjo forecast. That said huge stormage around then too.
The last 2-3 yrs we didn't have a White Christmas here in Everett, PA, but I hope this year is different.
(hi skye)

post 296- looks like the space shuttle got in the way...AGAIN.... :)
Quoting Magicchaos:
The last 2-3 yrs we didn't have a White Christmas here in Everett, PA, but I hope this year is different.
It is possible...
As weird as this year has been...Anything is possible.
Quoting amd:


with all due respect, I see nothing wrong with his statement. He never said or even implied that he wanted an Atlantic system or any tropical system to hit land. It seems to me that he wants a tropical system to track in the Atlantic basin, nothing more, nothing less.

And, posts 268 and 274 are spot on, When extreme weather occurs, instead of being melodramatic about it, we should try to explain it and discuss it in a rational way. If need be, we could give advice for those who lurk on this blog, but may not be as weather or scientifically inclined, the tools and analysis to help them handle the extreme weather. All of this is JMHO.


I've gotten my daily group therapy out of the way. Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
got 24 high power turbo fans on the roof and pointing them all towards the south to cool off fla
We from Florida thank you!
305. xcool
Tonight...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Southwest winds to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Thursday...Cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Friday...Cooler. Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Highs in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday Night...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. North winds to 10 mph.

Saturday...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s.

Sunday...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday Night...Clear. Lows 43 to 49.

Monday...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Monday Night...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of showers 20 percent.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of showers 20 percent.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s


Well the Phillippines are about to be hammered again with the storm track taking it right over as a Cat3/4. They just can't get abreak. So sad :(
We were talking about winter weather, and know i am almost sure that it is either raining very lighty, or snowing lightly...
Quoting timtrice:


I've gotten my daily group therapy out of the way. Link

I just read the "group therapy" and I totally get it! A LOT of us are adrenaline-junkies. But what I don't get, is how anyone can say it's boring right now. Yikes, between WPac, California/west coast floods/mudslides, U.S. southeast flooding, and the cold, the awful cold (you can have it, my meanie(?) friends in Florida) PLUS this often-hilarious blog (marriage advice, climate change debates -- it is NO LONGER CALLED GLOBAL WARMING -- and now a HIV conspiracy guy, how can anyone say this is boring?
Is it just that folks on the blog are Atlantic-basic Tropics centric? If that's true, that's ok, but what blog d'yall go to in the off-season. I have to know where to get my fix.
Quoting Yalahaman:
We from Florida thank you!

Not all of us.
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Well the Phillippines are about to be hammered again with the storm track taking it right over as a Cat3/4. They just can't get abreak. So sad :(

Yeah I saw the earlier track of TS22 and it was going to go up the west coast of the Philippines, now its going to head straight toward central/northern Luzon.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:

Not all of us.

I hope that means you don't enjoy the cold, either - 'cus you know I really, really like Floridians...except the whiners...which reminds me I have a joke for Orca's blog...

whoops, sorry, I lost track of the conversation, your comment was about something else...my apologies. I was just joking around in any case. Neighbor gave us a nice bottle of Merlot...it's showing.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I just read the "group therapy" and I totally get it! A LOT of us are adrenaline-junkies. But what I don't get, is how anyone can say it's boring right now. Yikes, between WPac, California/west coast floods/mudslides, U.S. southeast flooding, and the cold, the awful cold (you can have it, my meanie(?) friends in Florida) PLUS this often-hilarious blog (marriage advice, climate change debates -- it is NO LONGER CALLED GLOBAL WARMING -- and now a HIV conspiracy guy, how can anyone say this is boring?
Is it just that folks on the blog are Atlantic-basic Tropics centric? If that's true, that's ok, but what blog d'yall go to in the off-season. I have to know where to get my fix.


I've been Atlantic-centric for years on my blog but I'm done with that focus. I've been writing about typhoons and plan on doing the same for cyclones throughout the winter. Like you, I have to get my fix.

When I say I'm bored, the storms are cool. But, I want a Melor-type storm. Something gorgeous. Or a Gordon-like storm - something tricky. That's what I look forward to
Quoting timtrice:


I've been Atlantic-centric for years on my blog but I'm done with that focus. I've been writing about typhoons and plan on doing the same for cyclones throughout the winter. Like you, I have to get my fix.

When I say I'm bored, the storms are cool. But, I want a Melor-type storm. Something gorgeous. Or a Gordon-like storm - something tricky. That's what I look forward to

Thanks, I'll have to look up Gordon. Sorry I'm ignorant 'bout that one, what year?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
839 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2009

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER MIAMI DADE COUNTY
ON ITS WAY SOUTH. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A HALF INCH PWAT INCREASE
FROM THIS MORNING TO 1.94 INCHES. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
CONTINUES TO LIFT AND IS NOW ARND 10000 FEET. THIS SUPPORTS MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS TO 02Z IN THE GRIDS. PROBABLY
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO THE CWF.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 14/12Z GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE 14/00Z ECMWF...KEEPING US IN THE
SOUP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
QUICKER WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SO WEATHER FOR SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE ONLY CHANGE I
MADE WAS TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS.

THE LATEST 14/12Z GFS CAME IN MUCH LOWER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COOL IT WILL GET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE TO SOUTH FL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL BRING ABOUT OUR
END TO THE "RAINY SEASON" AS A REFRESHING LONG AWAITED AIRMASS
FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES INTO THE AREA.

While it looks like someone found the Autumn switch, it appears that it may not cool down as much as some of my more vocal colleagues hope . . . .
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Thanks, I'll have to look up Gordon. Sorry I'm ignorant 'bout that one, what year?


1994

Link
Quoting WeatherStudent:


No comments there, ''Daniel Pigan''. Because if I were to say something, it certainly wouldn't be pretty as far as you would go, and so help me God, that's for damn sure, right there. Seriously child, please think before you speak next time, trust me, it'll would certainly tend to do you more good than harm. Surreal. :)
your a real jimmy the cricket there huh
Quoting timtrice:


1994

Link

Holy Moly. My son was 16 having multiple fender-benders, I'll blame him for not knowing about this one. Thnx for link.
I have never seen a year like this in the tropics...and I think a good number on here would agree...we dont even worry about thunderstorms anymore here when we go to work and it the Caribbean in the hurricane season....so something is going on...you see a TCU and you assume it will dissipate without any impact and it does...almost nothing gets to thunderstorm status...just never seen it like this...been here 31 years...
Quoting 19N81W:
I have never seen a year like this in the tropics...and I think a good number on here would agree...we dont even worry about thunderstorms anymore here when we go to work and it the Caribbean in the hurricane season....so something is going on...you see a TCU and you assume it will dissipate without any impact and it does...almost nothing gets to thunderstorm status...just never seen it like this...been here 31 years...

What do you think is going on?
It's a good thing summer only runs from January 1 through December 31st in South Florida. Relief from the heat should be right around the corner..


jk
Quoting 19N81W:
I have never seen a year like this in the tropics...and I think a good number on here would agree...we dont even worry about thunderstorms anymore here when we go to work and it the Caribbean in the hurricane season....so something is going on...you see a TCU and you assume it will dissipate without any impact and it does...almost nothing gets to thunderstorm status...just never seen it like this...been here 31 years...
the last time it was like this was 77
32 yrs ago
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

What do you think is going on?
maybe we are on the verge of a climate shift
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

What do you think is going on?


We are in a period of decreased atlantic tropical cyclone activity...
KOG - What about a naturally occurring cycle?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe we are on the verge of a climate shift

That, and/or my son was born in '77. His name's not Damien but might as well have been (oh, we love him anyway.)
Quoting Dakster:
It's a good thing summer only runs from January 1 through December 31st in South Florida. Relief from the heat should be right around the corner..


jk


Actually, our NWS just opined. I posted their update at 315.
(I think you're N&E of me.)
Quoting presslord:
Dr. Masters and the corporate WU people are some of the finest people I've ever dealt with...absolutely fine people running a great American company...but for the blog Admins to allow this clown to continually refer to people by name here is unconscionable...and very dangerous...


like i said a real jimmy the cricket there

i'am convinced he has been dropped on his head when an infant
...and, to make matters worse...I think the person he referenced is a minor...

...they consistently turn a blind eye to bullying and personal attacks...
Quoting miajrz:


Actually, our NWS just opined. I posted their update at 315.
(I think you're N&E of me.)


Are you in Homestead?

There isn't a whole lot south and west of me...
Quoting Dakster:
KOG - What about a naturally occurring cycle?
very possible i remember a long time ago my grandfather told me once after having a disscussion about pollution and cars and garbage if we don't fix it she will and thats likly whats happening she is fixing it
Quoting WeatherStudent:


No comments there, ''Daniel Pigan''. Because if I were to say something, it certainly wouldn't be pretty as far as you would go, and so help me God, that's for damn sure, right there. Seriously child, please think before you speak next time, trust me, it'll would certainly tend to do you more good than harm. Surreal. :)


Thanks for putting my real name out there. Thats always a smart idea. Also, I see that you continue to threaten people like you have done for the past several months now which continues to get you nowhere and will only cause you trouble in the future. If you're going to make such claims of "doubt[ing] you'll be wrong" and showing such an imagined authority over these blogs, then you open yourself to much scrutiny and criticism. By the way, I see that you haven't changed at all considering all the advice and all the help that I tried to give you when you were being and continue to be harassed on the blogs. Really wish you would have taken my advice since you did have respect from me at one point since I saw the enthusiasm you had for weather and thought that if you changed your approach, you could have been a great contributor to this blog.
Quoting Dakster:


Are you in Homestead?

Sorry I don't know how to edit so only your q shows.
Where So Dixie hits the TPike Aka Caribbean Blvd, or, catty-corner from the C Ridge Mall.
Bears repeating, especially since the response is positive proof.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


You should reconsider being a political science major as you've butchered the English language and grammar to a point of no return.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Holy Moly. My son was 16 having multiple fender-benders, I'll blame him for not knowing about this one. Thnx for link.


You should check out Emily (1993). I call it the Alfred Hitchcock storm (turn the track sideways, if you can).

Link
Quoting amd:


with all due respect, I see nothing wrong with his statement. He never said or even implied that he wanted an Atlantic system or any tropical system to hit land. It seems to me that he wants a tropical system to track in the Atlantic basin, nothing more, nothing less.

And, posts 268 and 274 are spot on, When extreme weather occurs, instead of being melodramatic about it, we should try to explain it and discuss it in a rational way. If need be, we could give advice for those who lurk on this blog, but may not be as weather or scientifically inclined, the tools and analysis to help them handle the extreme weather. All of this is JMHO.

I apologize to AtlantaMET and anyone else my comment may have offended. I know the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season, was, well, almost non-existant this year. I just keep finding incredible ways to "eat crow", now don't I!

I am one who grew up in climate zones where we saw Nor'easters, lake effect snow, an occasional weak hurricane or tropical storm, ice storms and plenty of severe thunderstorms; complete with hail, high winds, torrential rains, and real live tornadoes. So I personally enjoy all weather features..I will respect those who like follow different types of weather.
Quoting miajrz:

Sorry I don't know how to edit so only your q shows.
Where So Dixie hits the TPike Aka Caribbean Blvd, or, catty-corner from the C Ridge Mall.

Eureka! It appears the editing/quoting happens automatically! Thanks, Admin!
Quoting presslord:
I no longer consider JFVWS to be a freak...I consider him to be a dangerous freak...
very much so press
Quoting miajrz:

Eureka! It appears the editing/quoting happens automatically! Thanks, Admin!


You're scaring me as to how you know I am north and east of you now... I know the area you are referring to.
Quoting JLPR:


lol the only thing I hate more than Hurricanes striking land is the construction companies for making houses so close to the coast XD


Tell me about it.
come see what i have on my blog KoritheMan
Quoting Dakster:


You're scaring me as to how you know I am north and east of you now... I know the area you are referring to.
Quoting Dakster:


You're scaring me as to how you know I am north and east of you now... I know the area you are referring to.

Sure don't mean to and you've got mail. XD.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I apologize to AtlantaMET and anyone else my comment may have offended. I know the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season, was, well, almost non-existant this year. I just keep finding incredible ways to "eat crow", now don't I!

I am one who grew up in climate zones where we saw Nor'easters, lake effect snow, an occasional weak hurricane or tropical storm, ice storms and plenty of severe thunderstorms; complete with hail, high winds, torrential rains, and real live tornadoes. So I personally enjoy all weather features..I will respect those who like follow different types of weather.


It wasn't yoru comment I was targeting in my attack. It was Ratatouille or Feivel or whatever that screenname was. I honestly didn't catch anything negative you said.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I hope that means you don't enjoy the cold...


Yeah, that was it.

1994 Gordon about flooded us out cresting about as high as Fay. At least it was warm.
Quoting miajrz:

Sure don't mean to and you've got mail. XD.


No worries now. I can put the M-16 back in the safe now.
Quoting Yalahaman:
We from Florida thank you!


Darn right we do. I can't wait for Sunday morning. The local weathermen are all predicting a low of 64º to 66º. THANK GOODNESS FALL IS FINALLY HERE !
Quoting AndrewSurvicor:


Darn right we do. I can't wait for Sunday morning. The local weathermen are all predicting a low of 64º to 66º. THANK GOODNESS FALL IS FINALLY HERE !


Yea, finally.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:

Not all of us.
Sorry. From Florida,I thank you! I work outside and will enjoy the "cool" weather.
Quoting miajrz:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
839 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2009

.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOW OVER MIAMI DADE COUNTY
ON ITS WAY SOUTH. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A HALF INCH PWAT INCREASE
FROM THIS MORNING TO 1.94 INCHES. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
CONTINUES TO LIFT AND IS NOW ARND 10000 FEET. THIS SUPPORTS MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT AND THAT IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS TO 02Z IN THE GRIDS. PROBABLY
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO THE CWF.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL 14/12Z GFS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN A
BIT...COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE 14/00Z ECMWF...KEEPING US IN THE
SOUP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
QUICKER WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING IT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SO WEATHER FOR SATURDAY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. THE ONLY CHANGE I
MADE WAS TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS.

THE LATEST 14/12Z GFS CAME IN MUCH LOWER WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT. DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW COOL IT WILL GET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE TO SOUTH FL...AND IT PROBABLY WILL BRING ABOUT OUR
END TO THE "RAINY SEASON" AS A REFRESHING LONG AWAITED AIRMASS
FROM THE NORTH INFILTRATES INTO THE AREA.

While it looks like someone found the Autumn switch, it appears that it may not cool down as much as some of my more vocal colleagues hope . . . .


and that's a shame as we have been steamy here in Miami for over a week. Its hit 90º+ every day it seems for the last 10. Enough already with Summer I am ready for Fall !
Quoting timtrice:


You should check out Emily (1993). I call it the Alfred Hitchcock storm (turn the track sideways, if you can).

Link

How funny; I took a college class in the Films of Hitchcock; everything is connected! :-) Thnx. again.

I had to take a break there for awhile, and need to hit the hay now. I'm sorry there's been so much animosity on the blog tonight. Autumn is a bittersweet time, it brings out many emotions. I hope all will be well; remember, this too shall pass. Also don't sweat the small stuff -- and it's all small stuff.
G'night all.
Quoting Dakster:


No worries now. I can put the M-16 back in the safe now.


Feel like laugh-out-loud Janet Evanovich's Stephanie Plum--start w/ High Five--i'll do the same, but, um, no bullets for the M-16, if I had one, and had a safe.
Doesn't look good...
WeatherStudent, I believe "cchsweatherman" is ALWAYS a perfect gentlemen, his comments are very helpful and he's very respectful. His Tropical weather discussions are intriguing and accurate. I personally use my real last name, I am not a meteorologist, nor am I afraid of any human, to me it's not a concern.

For your sake, I hope that you learn to RESPECT people! For all you know "cchsweatherman" maybe 6'5" tall, 300LBS of solid muscle. You know, the kinda' guy who usually "beats up" weather nerds??
Quoting somemalayguy117:
Doesn't look good...


Can Mother Nature please leave the Philippines alone for goodness sakes? I realize they live in a region prone to storms, but this repeated assault is just disgusting to watch knowing that more people are going to not only lose their livelihood, but in some cases, their lives as well. I've sent supplies through the Salvation Army recently for the Philippines and Indonesia. I'm really hoping for the best and for a speedy recovery, even though I recognize neither may happen.
Quoting Dakster:
It's a good thing summer only runs from January 1 through December 31st in South Florida. Relief from the heat should be right around the corner..


jk


LOL It does seem that way sometimes. But this weekend will be a nice respite from this infernal heat of the last 10+ days.
Quoting Bordonaro:
WeatherStudent, I believe "cchsweatherman" is ALWAYS a perfect gentlemen, his comments are very helpful and he's very respectful. His Tropical weather discussions are intriguing and accurate. I personally use my real last name, I am not a meteorologist, nor am I afraid of any human, to me it's not a concern.

For your sake, I hope that you learn to RESPECT people! For all you know "cchsweatherman" maybe 6'5" tall, 300LBS of solid muscle. You know, the kinda' guy who usually "beats up" weather nerds??


Thanks for the support. Just one comment. Even if I had that physique, I wouldn't beat up anyone since thats not my nature unless someone assaults or disrespects a women or messes with my family.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Can Mother Nature please leave the Philippines alone for goodness sakes? I realize they live in a region prone to storms, but this repeated assault is just disgusting to watch knowing that more people are going to not only lose their livelihood, but in some cases, their lives as well. I've sent supplies through the Salvation Army recently for the Philippines and Indonesia. I'm really hoping for the best and for a speedy recovery, even though I recognize neither may happen.


Let's all hope and pray the storm changes direction, they've had enough already, may God please give this nation a well deserved break!
I think we may see 2 more storms between now & Nov 30, maybe 1 becoming a hurricane, as for now it looks the Season might be closing early, but til Nov 30 no one can be caught off guard , jmo.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thanks for the support. Just one comment. Even if I had that physique, I wouldn't beat up anyone since thats not my nature unless someone assaults or disrespects a women or messes with my family.

I understand, I know you're a gentleman. I hope and pray WeatherStudent learns to show respect, or one of these days, he'll learn the "hard way"!
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we may see 2 more storms between now & Nov 30, maybe 1 becoming a hurricane, as for now it looks the Season might be closing early, but til Nov 30 no one can be caught off guard , jmo.


It wouldn't surprise me to see another storm, but given the trough pattern developing across the Eastern United States as we head closer to winter, I'm really not expecting anything to hit the United States. With that said, any fronts that get stalled out over the Western Caribbean would bare definite watching since the waters remain relatively untouched this season in the region.




Dallas Fort Worth needs to watch things!
Quoting TampaSpin:




Dallas Fort Worth needs to watch things!


Wow! The atmosphere is insanely juiced tonight over Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Haven't seen such high CAPE values since the spring.
guys i do not see any more name storms this year


hurricane season so far with 8 name storm 2 hurricanes and 2 cat 3 or higher storms all so 90L back in may may be come a name storm in post season so there for we will have 9 name storms then if that turns out too be come true
366...I'm strongly inclined to agree with you...
Quoting TampaSpin:




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX...

DESPITE ATTEMPTS OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION NEAR THE METROPLEX THIS
EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. INDEED..00Z FWD SOUNDING SAMPLED A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...FEATURING MLCAPE OF 3000-3500
J/KG...AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IS LIKELY TO BE RELEASED LATER TONIGHT AS WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ARE ENHANCED N OF SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE /SITUATED FROM N-CNTRL TX
INTO CNTRL LA/ ALONG STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK LAPSE RATES
OBSERVED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS. NONETHELESS...SOME THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 10/15/2009
Hey Taz,

Haven't been following the blog much until this evening. Just wanted to see what impacts you had from that powerful storm that slammed into your area. From the reports I read, it was a very intense gale storm.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Wow! The atmosphere is insanely juiced tonight over Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Haven't seen such high CAPE values since the spring.


Yep! Could be big trouble tonite for Texas and Louisiana IMO!
Pretty neat cloudsat of the Cold core way NE..

If you click the pic you can see the pass in relation to the storm. What is pictured left in very near center, lower than that right, a cross section of tail..
Can someone explain a CAPE value?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hey Taz,

Haven't been following the blog much until this evening. Just wanted to see what impacts you had from that powerful storm that slammed into your area. From the reports I read, it was a very intense gale storm.



hello we had 5" of rain from this storm it was vary windy with this storm leves are down evere where tress are down here and there its was a mass out there



and now the 18z are forcasting a 925mb storm lol


you cant make out the # vary well but if am looking at this right am seeing a 925mb to 934mb storm on the 132hr run












on this one it looks like the low fills in at 941mbs



132hrs out






144hrs out you can see the 941mb on the map


Quoting Dakster:
Can someone explain a CAPE value?


Convective available potential energy

Quoting Bordonaro:


Let's all hope and pray the storm changes direction, they've had enough already, may God please give this nation a well deserved break!


I commented earlier today the handoff between ridges is always tricky and for some reason I don't recall seeing that type of scenario where the 2nd ridge didn't push the storm south-southwest for a bit. Even if not this time, that's still a bad situation.

I said it before I'll say it again - Florida, '04.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Convective available potential energy



Thanks ORCASYSTEMS!!

Have you felt any of the little quakes?


Near the border of Texas and Louisiana could be big problems late tonite into tomorrow!
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks ORCASYSTEMS!!

Have you felt any of the little quakes?


Nope..and I prefer it that way :)
It has to be pretty decent for us to feel it.. live on Solid Rock :)
Quoting Dakster:
Can someone explain a CAPE value?


CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. All this measurement is is a reflection on how unstable the atmosphere is. The higher the CAPE value, the greater the potential for severe weather.

But even with high CAPE values, you need to have high negative LI values (which refers to the Lift Index or the value depicting the potential rise of thunderstorms into the atmosphere) and increasing moisture content in the lower atmosphere as depicted by the green line on those Skew Plots provided by Tampa.
This makes perfect sense to me, I get it now.



Quoting cchsweatherman:


CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. All this measurement is is a reflection on how unstable the atmosphere is. The higher the CAPE value, the greater the potential for severe weather.

But even with high CAPE values, you need to have high negative LI values (which refers to the Lift Index or the value depicting the potential rise of thunderstorms into the atmosphere) and increasing moisture content in the lower atmosphere as depicted by the green line on those Skew Plots provided by Tampa.


I read the wiki on it, but I like your definition better. I didn't have to wade through the math.

We will have to watch and see if it pans out. (hopefully no tornados form).
Quoting Dakster:
This makes perfect sense to me, I get it now.





See! Wasn't that hard, was it!?!?!?
Quoting Tazmanian:



hello we had 5" of rain from this storm it was vary windy with this storm leves are down evere where tress are down here and there its was a mass out there



and now the 18z are forcasting a 925mb storm lol


you cant make out the # vary well but if am looking at this right am seeing a 925mb to 934mb storm on the 132hr run












on this one it looks like the low fills in at 941mbs



132hrs out






144hrs out you can see the 941mb on the map




Sounds like things are pretty bad. I most feared the levees, especially in the Sacramento area considering that they've been in a poor state for the past few years. Good luck with the cleanup there.

By the way, I noticed the next storm forecast by the GFS in watching the computer models tonight. Given how well the GFS did in handling the storm that just hit your area, it warrants serious consideration since it would be another powerful gale storm coming into the Pacific Northwest and possibly California, although I don't really buy the unusually low pressures depicted in the model.


Storm Prediction Center is on it also.....but low!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Sounds like things are pretty bad. I most feared the levees, especially in the Sacramento area considering that they've been in a poor state for the past few years. Good luck with the cleanup there.

By the way, I noticed the next storm forecast by the GFS in watching the computer models tonight. Given how well the GFS did in handling the storm that just hit your area, it warrants serious consideration since it would be another powerful gale storm coming into the Pacific Northwest and possibly California, although I don't really buy the unusually low pressures depicted in the model.




yes it is but this is is a vary strong storm that the GFS the GFS is forcasting a cat 3 hurricane like storm off the Coast has its is showing on the 18z mode run
Quoting TampaSpin:


Storm Prediction Center is on it also.....but low!


Not surprising since the shear profile doesn't favor tornadoes in the area. Biggest threat appears to just be straightline winds.
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes it is but this is is a vary strong storm that the GFS the GFS is forcasting a cat 3 hurricane like storm off the Coast has its is showing on the 18z mode run


Rather wait to see some consistency before really buying the strength forecast.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Rather wait to see some consistency before really buying the strength forecast.



ok can you keep a eye on this
Quoting Dakster:
This makes perfect sense to me, I get it now.





Thanks for reminding me of the Calculus I'm doing right now. lol I really, really hate it.
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok can you keep a eye on this


Will do since, as you can tell, I'm not just a local guy.
This visualization won Honorable Mention in the National Science Foundation's Science and Engineering Visualization Challenge in September 2007. It was also shown during the SIGGRAPH 2008 Computer Animation Festival in Los Angeles, CA. 'Towers in the Tempest' is a 4.5 minute narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data.

The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure.

The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds.

The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Quoting presslord:


...only a complete idiot would be unable to understand this...

Yes, Cape Fear. I remember that movie, too.
Patrap, I think you mighta just stretched the blog.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Will do since, as you can tell, I'm not just a local guy.



ok cool can you post updates on my blog
Quoting Tazmanian:



ok cool can you post updates on my blog


I'll try to if I remember.
Good evening, everyone!

Thoughts on what the NE could receive from the impending storm? More rain/more snow? Thanks! Looks like the time frame will be Fri./Sat.

For those who care, I know most on here do like my graphics for Tropical systems. During the offseason, I will still post graphics, but obviously on serious weather phenomenon (not tropical cyclones). Ex.-Winter storms/severe weather
Quoting Bordonaro:


Let's all hope and pray the storm changes direction, they've had enough already, may God please give this nation a well deserved break!
dear lord take this evil vision from my sight

well i've asked lets see if he delivers
Just one more atl storm to track, please... preferably a long track fish storm like kyle...
*facedesk*
400. JRRP
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think we may see 2 more storms between now & Nov 30, maybe 1 becoming a hurricane, as for now it looks the Season might be closing early, but til Nov 30 no one can be caught off guard , jmo.

i agree
snow on the map.
Quoting presslord:
I no longer consider JFVWS to be a freak...I consider him to be a dangerous freak...


I agree Press - I dealt with his crap last year and have consistently wondered why no one can keep him off the blog time after time of the threats and nonsense.

CCHS - people that know you will totally stick up for you here. No worries.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Wow! The atmosphere is insanely juiced tonight over Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Haven't seen such high CAPE values since the spring.

Well...this time of year is the secondary maximum for nados in the Dallas area.

frosty night already

Though cchswxman posted a decent explanation of CAPE, the SPC has an excellent help page associated with the skew T-log P pages: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/help/index.html

Click anything and get a medium-level description. (Not really for noobs).
Kinda slow out of the box at the break of the model VS humans race for 22W

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
MM5B INCREASING 139.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 160.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E DECREASING 161.1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
frosty night already


hi guys talk to me what up in the tropics tonight I want something I am pooft from nothing being out there
Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh, yeah?

OMG... its in C... thats a nice warm spot :)
ok, now its in F
Quit confusing me :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, I am staying here where its warm :)

Ah, fooled you with the Celsius, did I?
battle of the weather stations i'm the coldest atmo is the warmest as for you big fish your in the middle there
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ah, fooled you with the Celsius, did I?


Yes... ummm some people are confused with C, so I convert mine to F when I post it...hate to confuse the locals :)
Quoting Orcasystems:
OMG... its in C... thats a nice warm spot :)

Still, this is a break from the 80F lows we've had lately. Those are miserable...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Still, this is a break from the 80F lows we've had lately. Those are miserable...


Umm isn't it awful close to midnight there right now?
Thats kind of warm for that late.
Yes it is a nice warm spot.... Heck all long the Gulf Coast is hot right now..... But do look forward to the cool temps this weekend..... the only thing is want last long.... Be back up and even raining next Thursday....

Taco :0)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes... ummm some people are confused with C

I usually operate in C, and UTC time, so my setting were that way by default.
KOG and I agreed... to do everything we can from Prayer to Weather Machines to try and give Florida a white Christmas :) and I do not mean sand.....
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm isn't it awful close to midnight there right now?
Thats kind of warm for that late.

Dude, we had a solid week where temps were never below about 76F. The time of day was only relevant in deciding if it was going to hot with or without a sun behind the clouds.

And it is close to 11 pm, I am in the same time zone as Saskatoon and Winnipeg.
Current Conditions


Bonita Highlands, Bonita, California (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
68.4 F
Clear
Humidity: 59%
Dew Point: 54 F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 3.1 mph
Pressure: 29.74 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 100 ft

Perfect weather..so glad to be home.
when i post it in c i get emails asking me if i'm in the north pole i say ya i also live in a igloo too and eat yak burgers

I don't come here much... being only a "lowly" subscriber to the Underground.... but, when I do..
it's always an eye-opener to someone who doesn't
really understand anything about "weather" and the
forecasting thereof. (Only when I was being tested as an applicant for a pilot's license, did
I begin to touch the outside reaches of the specialty of those who predict for us, the coming
weather.) I passed.... but wasn't competent.

Saludos
Vs. This:

Berwick Plantation - Stonebridge Subdivision, Savannah, Georgia (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
64.9 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 400 ft
(Above Ground Level

Quoting atmoaggie:

Dude, we had a solid week where temps were never below about 76F. The time of day was only relevant in deciding if it was going to hot with or without a sun behind the clouds.

And it is close to 11 pm, I am in the same time zone as Saskatoon and Winnipeg.


I am planning one... and maybe two trips to Mexico this year... one in Nov and again in Jan... that is the only place I expect to see temps like that.

Thought of Florida... but apparently you can't get there from here... not easily anyway.
426. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when i post it in c i get emails asking me if i'm in the north pole i say ya i also live in a igloo too and eat yak burgers



Hey Keeper are there a lot of Sri Lankans and Guyanese by u there?
muslim
chinese
blacks
as well
we are all different yet the same
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
muslim
chinese
blacks
as well
we are all different yet the same


Same here... hard for some people to understand.
and we all live in one big igloo together
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and we all live in one big igloo together


You have igloos.. we live in Longhouses :)
Conan O'Brien just did a side splitting skit about people reacting to the rain in CA..national guard, flood rescues, looting, cannibalize..guess it's been a really harsh drought.
Oh no I just asked because I have a lot of relatives from Guyana that live there and I used to spend my summers there when I was younger. Wish I could escape the sweltering heat in FL, I love the cold, experienced it for a yr in PA when I went to Penn State.
cannabilize whoa that's very extreme, next thing you know they set fires. I was watching a clip earlier on ESPN when they had the earthquake in '89 and the Giants were in the World Series, just imagine it shook that whole stadium fortunately none of the concrete structure fell on those fans.
Quoting AtlantaMET:


You are always talking about tropics boring, tropics this and that and when anybody says anything you state it's your opinion. Well I deserve to be treated just the way you want to be treated.


Absolutely agree with you! You can be put on ignore just like anyone else...
437. Inyo
yeah, I left California a few months ago and am in Vermont where we are getting early season snow flurries rather than ran. However, it has been very dry, and it is amazing that a storm with 10 inches of rain in many places caused almost no flooding. It really is all soaking into the ground and will be a very good thing for every living thing in the state. Hopefully the winter is full of rain for my home state.
since everyone else is doing it...
geez... it's not even the middle of october...


Right Now for
Utica, NY
Save Location [ English | Metric ]


Weather for your life


Mostly Cloudy
31°F
Feels Like
31°F
Updated Oct 15 12:05 a.m. ET
Utica Live Webcams

UV Index: 0 Low
Wind: CALM
Humidity: 75%
Pressure: 30.21 in.
Dew Point: 25°F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
439. JRRP
oct

sep

i am out
howdy
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2009

...SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM WESTERN
BARNES COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH THE FORT RANSOM AND FORMAN AREAS...WHERE
UP TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY MORNING.

443. xcool



Overnight: Areas of dense fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Calm wind.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Areas of dense fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 66.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Tuesday: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Tuesday Night: Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

444. xcool
bye all
984
TCNA21 RJTD 150600
CCAA 15060 47644 NAMELESS 24118 11421 14134 215// 92831=

6:00 AM UTC October 15 2009

Tropical Depression 24
11.8N 142.1E
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

--
moving away from Marianas region
leona lewis attacked? heres her #1 hit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF84pIhP5UM sounds like she needs to hang out with kevin costner the bodyguard happy weather
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER NEPARTAK (T0919)
39.0ºN 175.0ºE - 998 hPa

Subject: Developing Low In Sea South Of Aleutians
TS22 moving west at 29 mph; that's one hell of an easterly flow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "24"
15:00 PM JST October 15 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.8N 142.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 24 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 14.3N 136.1E - 40 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Typhoon 2000 - (Using JTWC numbering system)

Tropical Storm 22W (UNNAMED) continued its fast-westerly track towards the Philippine Sea...just passed south of Guam...likely to become a dangerous tropical cyclone early next week.

22W is expected to start turning more to the WNW and slowing down w/in the next 24 to 36 hours upon approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow evening. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 22W entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Saturday morning Oct 17 as a Category 1 Typhoon w/ winds of 120 kph...and shall turn back to its westerly track towards Eastern Luzon on Sunday Oct 18. 22W shall rapidly grow into a Category 3 Typhoon on Tuesday Oct 20 in a track that could bring it to Northern Luzon on Wednesday or Thursday

The next local name for the Philippines is "Ramil"
sounds like ts 22 does not want luzon to come up for air. wondering if a part of the usa will get it bad within the next couple yrs like luzon has so far this yr
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

In sea just east of The Philippines at this time of the forecast outlook


JTWC oulook for TS Lupit (Ramil).. =(
Quoting leftovers:
sounds like ts 22 does not want luzon to come up for air. wondering if a part of the usa will get it bad within the next couple yrs like luzon has so far this yr


Interestingly, next year's naming list for the Atlantic basin is the same one that was used during 2004, sans Colin, Fiona, Igor, and Julia, which replaced Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, respectively.

We all know what happened during that year; strong ridging along the southeastern United States and adjacent western Atlantic contributed to two hurricanes striking Florida from the east (Frances and Jeanne), as well as one striking it from the west (Ivan).

Charley appears to be the only hurricane that year that was not affected by ridging. On the contrary, Charley's path was dictated by troughing.
56.7*F in Macon, Georgia this morning
Overcast sky, 99% Humidity, 2.27 inches of rain yesterday.

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:08 PM EDT on October 14, 2009


... Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for the Ocmulgee River near Macon
* until Friday evening.
* At 8pm Wednesday the river stage was 20.4 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring... and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will begin to fall early Thursday morning... dropping
below flood stage by early afternoon Friday.
* At 20 feet... minor flooding continues with a large portion of the
Macon Greenway Ocmulgee heritage trail flooded north of the fifth
street bridge as both banks overflow upstream from the fifth street
bridge. Minor agricultural flooding occurs further downstream
from the fifth street bridge.


think next yr is going to be average. the el nino is going to hang tough 2011-12 are going to be ringers and the atlantic hurricane season might not end the winter of 2011-12
good morning guys what is that blowup of convection in between haiti jamaica and cuba what ever it is it in low wind shear 5-10 kt
and a very weak vort





and se cuba radar also has jam cayman and haiti



Link
Good Morning from the cloudy Carolina Coast!

We have Sea Smoke on the I.C.W. this morning..... don't see that often here!!!!
458. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

.AVIATION...
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH METROPLEX ATTM...







TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning from the cloudy Carolina Coast!

We have Sea Fog on the I.C.W. this morning..... don't see that often here!!!!


OK pal...I'm on the ICW on the 'Carolina coast" too...and we don't have sea fog...Do you by any chance mean the North Carolina coast?!?!
Morning Press
You will have to excuse me... didn't realize there was another "Carolina" LOL

Quoting MissNadia:
Morning Press
You will have to excuse me... didn't realize there was another "Carolina" LOL



Hey! That's my line!!!!

How ha ya?
Doing fine, thanks.
btw...we have a Portlight conference call tonight at 7:30P EST...call in # and participant code are on the Portlight blog...

Everyone is welcome...please join us...and...if we have a good turn out...I promise not to put on another dress for Halloween...
464. P451
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys what is that blowup of convection in between haiti jamaica and cuba what ever it is it in low wind shear 5-10 kt
and a very weak vort





and se cuba radar also has jam cayman and haiti



Link


There has been persistent training of convection - like a string of pearls if you will - that has followed in Henri's wake for days now.
465. P451
Fall continues to settle in nicely. In for some rough weather here in NJ apparently.

New invest in the East Pacific

EP 93 2009101512 BEST 0 108N 954W 25 1008 DB
Don't the waters in the pacific cool like in the atlantic when you have so many storms in the same area? Or is the warm water much deeper then in the atlantic?
Nor'easter to deliver unusually early snowfall


A sprawling dome of surface high pressure currently bridges south-central Canada and the northern Great Lakes region with the eastern periphery nosing into the Northeastern United States, responsible for the very chilly air entrenched over the northern third of the US at present. Meanwhile, a series of Pacific disturbances carrying the remnants of once Super Typhoon Melor are riding a fast (120-140kts) zonal jet stream centered near 40°N across the country. As this energy reaches the East Coast a northern stream shortwave will begin to sharpen a trough over the Eastern US causing low pressure to deepen while moving up the coast. This will spread a variety of precipitation types across the Northeastern US, along with wind and coastal flooding. Across the interior elevated terrain, there may be some hefty early-season snowfall accumulations. Then, not to be outdone, the northern stream shortwave which causes the buckling of the jet will form its own coastal low pressure as it crosses the Appalachians. This will continue the unsettled weather along the coast as a second area of low pressure forms and sticks around through the weekend.


Remainder of forecast here
470. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Melor's Deluge in California will be a great boon for the state, helping it to overcome one of the most severe droughts in the past 50 years.

Not likely, since we depend on norther Sierra snowpack for much of our water.