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Thingamabobbercane forms off the coast of Oregon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on November 02, 2006

An unusual storm with the satellite appearance of a hurricane formed 900 miles off the coast of Oregon yesterday. The storm is a hybrid between a warm-cored tropical cyclone, cold-cored extratropical cyclone, and an uncommon type of winter storm called a Polar Low. Since we're not really sure how to classify this odd beast, I'll call it "Thingamabobbercane". Thingamabobbercane is being called 91C at the Navy web site.


Figure 1. Thingamabobbercane forms 900 miles west of the Oregon coast, November 1, 2006.

Thingamabobbercane formed from a cold-cored extratropical storm that spent two days drifting over relatively warm waters of about 59-61F (15-16C). These temperatures were warm enough to warm the core of the storm and generate a cloud-free "eye" and an "eyewall" of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye. The spiral bands of showers and eye/eyewall appearance look very similar to Hurricane Epsilon of 2005, which formed over waters of 75-77 F (22-23C). If Thingamabobbercane had been in the Atlantic, it would likely have been given a name and called a subtropical cyclone. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu isn't even mentioning it in their Tropical Weather Outlook, so Thingamabobbercane is not going to get a name. Hybrid storms of this nature are rare in the Central Pacific, and we really don't know what to do with them. It's worth noting that SSTs in the northeast Pacific are a substantial 2 C above normal; normally ocean temperatures are too cold to get hybrid subtropical storms off the coast of Oregon.

A QuikSCAT satellite pass from last night (Figure 2) shows wind speeds as high as 50 knots (57 mph) to the south of the circulation center of Thingamabobbercane. Cloud top temperatures in the "eyewall" were between -42 and -53 C, which correspond to heights of 35,000 to 40,000 feet. Satellite imagery from this morning shows that Thingamabobbercane has weakened, and resembles a donut with the bottom half missing. Wind shear, which was 15 knots yesterday, has increased to 25 knots over the storm, and is likely responsible for the weakening. Thingamabobbercane is expected to gradually weaken as it drifts northeastward over the next two days. The storm will make the transition to a regular extratropical cyclone by Saturday, and affect British Columbia with gale-force winds early next week.


Figure 2. QuikSCAT winds from 04 UTC November 2, 2006, show wind speeds as high as 50 knots (57 mph) to the south of the circulation center of Thingamabobbercane.

Thingamabobbercane is over much cooler waters than some of the late-season tropical storms of 2005--such as Vince and Epsilon--that looked similar. A drifting buoy 46637 100 miles to the north of the center is reporting SSTs of 58F (14.5C), and drifting buoy 46532 about 150 miles to the west is reporting SSTs of 62F (16.5C). Thingamabobbercane resembles the January 1995 weirdo storm that formed in the Mediterranean Sea. This unusual storm also looked like a hurricane, and formed over waters of similar temperature, 61F. Another odd hybrid storm like Thingamabobbercane formed over Lake Huron on September 14, 1996. Hurricane Huron started as a cold-cored low pressure system, then gradually acquired a warm core as it drifted over the relatively warm waters (64F, 18C) of Lake Huron. Hurricane Huron developed a cloud-free eye and spiral bands of showers and thunderstorms which brought up to four inches of rain and flooding problems to portions of Ontario and Michigan. It is the only recorded warm-core hybrid cyclone to affect the Great Lakes.


Figure 3. "Hurricane Huron" over Lake Huron closely resembles our Thingamabobbercane. Image credit: Dr. Todd Miner, Penn State University. Dr. Miner has authored an interesting techincal paper on Hurricane Huron.

For more on Thingamabobbercane
The University of Wisconsin CIMSS web site has an interesting blog with both visible and infrared Quicktime animations of the storm.

The Atlantic
An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is associated with a tropical disturbance (93L). This disturbance has gotten less organized since yesterday, and is not expected to become a tropical depression. It will continue to bring heavy rains to Belize, the Yucatan, and Honduras over the next two days. More than two inches of rain has fallen in Cancun, Cozumel, and Belize City in the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 93L in the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Love your sense of humor - thanks.
..wild and impressive shot..have a great day!
Thingamabobbercane..... LOL
wow you're beginning to sound like me an artist = this is scary real scary......
Thingamabobbercane? LOL...
Looks like an engineered storm...again
Looks like an engineered storm...again

LOL... You believe in weather modification?
10. iyou
With all due respect...LOL!!
XD I suggest this be named Subtropical Storm Thing.

Storm2k's boards have some images from yesterday when this thing looked pretty amazing.
I think we need to just call it "Thing" for short.
Here is a satellite loop of the storm:

I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one to chuckle out loud every time I read "Thingamabobbercane".
Question: Is this what the Columbus Day Storm would have looked like on satellite?
Nash. your gonna have to add that word to your dictionary.
The Columbus Day Storm was a severe extratropical cyclone, nothing tropical about it (the fact that it was in January is a clue to this, since SSTs are considerably cooler by that time). The (whateveryouwanttocallit) storm right now looks/looked more like Vince to me.
Obviously a product of the N. Korea nuke test... open your eyes people!
LOL. I love it!! Great entry!
20. TX
it's eyelive, it's eyelive!
Vince and the whateveryouwanttocallit:



Note that Vince was still listed as an Invest on NRL when it was at peak intensity!
Central Pacific Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

NO CURRENT CLASSIFICATIONS


Huh? No classifications? Maybe a coverup? LOL!
Huh? No classifications? Maybe a coverup? LOL!


It's all easily explained...".a terrorist plot"!
ok yes i do believe in weather modification...


It has been documented and performed for many many years.


Laughing at the unthinkable is a normal defense mechanism so i understand your amusement but you all should open your mids a little more to things like this.

I could have said " well its the presidents fault " and at least 80% of you would have agreed...including Dr Masters...

LOL Jeff.
ABNT20 KNHC 021606
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST THU NOV 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND
. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INLAND
According to the NHC 93L has become somewhat better organized this morning but futher development is not expected as it is expected to move inland in the coming hours.

Here is a close-up view of the low pressure associated with 93L...


Showers and thunderstorms are likely across all of southflorida this afternoon be careful driving today as roads will be wet...

Here are a few more southflorida radars...

1-SFWMD radar images

2-weather underground nexrad miami radar

3-NWS miami dadar


30. 0741
it donot look like it moving inland it look like moving more off the coast and moving nne
31. 0741
it raining here by airport pretty good
Its a weird wacky Weather Pattern..Nov 2nd
But Sunny & Cool Here In Nola..Nw Winds a Blowing..Arrrrgh!
0741 i just edited my post and i added a few more southflorida radar sights.
35. Inyo
the only weather modification we are doing that might affect this storm is increasing temperatures with CO2.
36. rlk
Why are "eye" and "eyewall" in quotes? It's evidently a true warm-core cyclone with a true eye and an eyewall.
Because the system isnt tropical..as the definition goes.And its been wacked in half..or decapitated..as it becomes a Extratropical low..with some strong winds..and not much else..
if 93L is not expected to do anything of consequence then why put the floater back on it this morning after an absence of several days ?

The vis loop does not show a movement W. If anything it looks to be either stationary or drifting to the E
Inyo, exactly! The problems caused by CO2 (global warming) are more subtle than you might think: while GW increases the temperature near the ground, it actually cools the temperature in the upper levels of the atmosphere; the net effect is to cause an increase in maximum intensity of tropical storms that is larger than what you might expect with SSTs alone.



What you see here is the basis for these maps. From what I have seen (on the CloudSat images on NRL, which show the temperatures at different heights), the normal temperature at 200 mb (which is used for the above graph) is normally around -50 to -60*C. Also, 40 m/s is about 90 mph; this means that hurricanes can form over 15*C (59*F) water! Of course, this does not happen much because it is near the limits, although storms have exceeded their maximum potential intensity, such as Gordon when it intensified over 22-23*C water to a strong Cat 2 when the potential intensity in the area it was in only supported a strong TS at best.
The Floaters need a target to do calibrations daily..as they do their Jobs..
The GFSx and other Runs from today show trouble in the CONUS southeast nextLink midweek as a strong low forms in Texas and gets shunted ENe..thru the South...
Pat

If that is so then why have all the other floaters been dormant on the same image for weeks ?
Because their in safe mode..or low-mode charlie to keep the system..or Bird in slew for Next year..Like Hibernation..mode..in other words..itsa over.
Didnt happen last year to January due to well..you saw how long the Season lingered.
Ah yes, the Fat Lady right ? LOL
It was a hurricane. Period

Proof? Look at Dr. Masters' link that shows that it was warm-core:



Hurricane Vince was not quite so warm-core...



Heck, Vince looks purely extratropical... LOL
More like a big FAt BAlding Male Saints Fan really..They much Louder singers..LOL!
well down here it is cricket and soccer but what the heck !
Ok Micheal..you write that down a save it..we"ll see Come January... the bigger Pic..itsa nothing..period..An Anomoly..if ya will.A thinga ma bobbie is the term I like too
I just recieved a letter that may change My Familys course here in New Orleans..forever in a Good way..Thank you God!
YAH PAT, about time for some sunshine on your little head! jo
52. 0741
how weather down their? kman
folks..we could use some help in saddles blog please...we need some bumping
Well..Im a man of Faith. And No matter what happens to ya..what ya lose..what you do..what is done to ya.That..they darn sure cant take.
Breaking starboard and decending to saddlesplace...Break right!...............>
Thingmabobbercane humm that is original for shure DR.Masters.I like the sound of it .It is as good a name as any for such a out of the box storm .Im glad i read the posting this morning .Have they not studied these things to understand why they are forming and if so maybe they can tell us more about what happens to create huricanes. One thing is for sure it proves the storms can formn in cooler waters and in shrt time over small area .Have a good day .
they havent classified because they hope it will go away without notice .It might unravel the fact they havent a clue lol
Since it is lost in the North Pacific, and is unwilling to stop and ask for directions to the Atlantic, it is obvious the storm is a guy, making it a "Himmicane".
Here is a close-up visible image of 91C in the central pacific...


60. N3EG
"Thingamabobbercane"...

This is why I always whine about our storms being anonymous...dammit, we have weather here too!
hahaha... N3EG

no you don't, sorry.
62. 0741
it look like 93l moving east or northeast not west like nhc say at 11:30outlook
I sure hope 93L doesn't become another Wilma.
64. N3EG
I predict Thingamabobbercane will make a direct hit on Sequim, WA. The cleanup will involve several weeks of raking leaves.
93L LOOKS LIKE A DEPPRESION TO ME BUT I THINK THERE NOT GONNA CLASSIFY IT DO TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND.
Well, it's not moving West any longer.




the navy site has 91C at 35kt
We should know by tomorrow morning what 93 will be up to. Looks like the lows influence is becoming alot stronger today. Slow movement to the north could spell trouble.
why dont they this call 91C a TS none name or some in ?
A November, 'cane = Novocane! [Novocaine]
Winds increasing here as the High and Low tighten the winds out the north...Link
The BuoyLink
971mb Hurricane 21 years ago...Link
Taz that's up from 30kts this morning.
Lbar seems to want to be the leader
LBAR takes "it" right over my house - I can see the stripe if I look out the window. I'm holding my breath.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A 19N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 15N39W 12N43W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND
THE GUYANAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY PASSING
ON TOP OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W ARE
BEING PUSHED EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY THIS FLOW.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W/87W
SOUTH OF 24N. WE HAVE NOT BEEN MOVING THIS WAVE MUCH DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS. IT HAS BECOME TIED TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...NOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. OUR NEXT SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS WILL SHOW THAT THE WAVE HAS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW
CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF
OF HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA. MOISTURE
FROM MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...TO THE BAHAMAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO LAND EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND INLAND.

$$
MT

The cmc trys to develop the 1st wave mentioned.
Jesus H. Christ.

Why is EVERYTHING the effect of global warming??

It's not. Period.

Learn one word. Learn it, live it and love it...

CYCLICAL
Yes, humans do affect the warming of the planet, but it is not to the degree most think.

We simply cannot control mother nature. It is impossible, on every scale. You cannot stop hurricanes, weaken hurricanes, stop tornadoes, etc....

We need to stop trying to control what we cannot, and control what we can.
83. HCW
New model runs for 93L are up. Have a nice day

Link
I don't get it?
hi all
Hello y'all! Thingamabobbercane, Aeh?
1900 i updated my blog
What happened to 1000 comments?
1900 i removed it.i got to 1028
now is some things about me
lol
Cyclonebuster...

"We simply cannot control mother nature. It is impossible, on every scale"....

I guess all the scientists that say it is possible and all the money we dump into doing this very thing is bogus than right?

I really cannot understand why people dont actually research these things for there own good... not just say "your crazy"... It isnt even deniable that it happens...

our own Air Force has written a paper about "owning the weather by 2025"...

w/e people....
Thingamabobbercane still looks like he could hold his own for a little while longer. Technically, this thing shouldn't exist, and it doesn't look like it wants to go away.
91C was likely near hurricane strength at one point (see Dr. Masters' entry); NRL is on crack (look at the archives for Vince; it was NEVER a hurricane on NRL!)
Look at the little guy go!

Link
Lank
Lonk
Hello STL.
The humans world is changing. We are more technologically advanced then ever before, and as time goes on we have acquired more control over the natural world. Some of us are begining too question the reasons for our own existence. The New Testament just doesn't cut for some people anymore. On the other hand some people refuse too except these changes, they hold on too the teachings of the past, constantly refusing too change with the world around them. If we can do better we should. The Universe we live in is changing, if we don't change with it we will most certainly perish.
Hello 1900

By the way, a hurricane DID develop where 91C is located; in fact, it actually approached within 300 miles of Alaska before becoming extratropical!
Unnamed Hurricane
This cyclone, officially designated as an Unnamed Hurricane, was a bizarre storm. It developed at high latitude and became a hurricane at higher latitude. It is the farthest north an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone has ever been in recorded history.

A cold core low absorbed the remnant circulation of Hurricane Ilsa on September 2. Convection increased rapidly, and by the 5th, it had enough convection to be called a tropical depression. This system was located 800 miles northeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. It moved westward, reaching tropical storm strength the next day. It began to move rapidly northeastward. An eye was evident at this time, but it was not until it reached 40 north on the 4th did it become a hurricane. On September 4, a ship reported hurricane-force winds. The storm weakened to a tropical storm on the 5th, and became extratropical that night, located less than 300 nautical miles southwest of Juneau, Alaska. The extratropical low moved southeastward, retaining its identity until it reached Montana, where it was absorbed by a front.

It is not known why this hurricane went unnamed. Any statement about why is purely speculative at this point.

Link
Sarcastic and extreme! I think you misunderstood my point.
in 1975, right?
Every other creature that has ever lived on this planet has gone extinct. If we do not innovate our fate will be the same as theirs. I said nothing about us destroying Earth.
107. HAARP
mars was already destroyed...


muwahahahaha....


the HAARP array in alaska exites the upper atmosphere creating massive heat in a controlled area... sucking up the air below...

this is the cause of this "unnamed" hurricane...

check out the woodpeckergrid the russians have been developing since the 60's

LOL, HAARP!

What is the woodpecker whatever? Russians? Oh, so this has to do with the Cold War, right?
Oh, you are wrong about heating the upper atmosphere; this would INHIBIT storms from forming because instability would be reduced (capping); weirdo storms like 91C and Vince developed under cold-core upper-level lows, which as their name suggests, are colder than the surrounding atmosphere in the upper levels.
The unnamed storm was in 1975, right?
Ha! I was right! Strange storms, aren't they?
Yes
This thing just goes to show how little we know about the weather. And yet we have money-hungry scientists preaching global warming and trying and using twisted logic. Instead of letting the earth fix itself, if global warming is real and man-made (a big IF), scientists want to mess up the environment by creating machines to cool the earth. How short-sighted and stupid.

I have little doubt the earth is warmer. I have no doubt that the true cause is unknown. We don't know the weather. This thing proves that.
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 9:56 PM GMT on November 02, 2006.

HAARP at 9:50 PM GMT on November 02, 2006.

mars was already destroyed...

But we can "Terraform" it with fossil fuel emissions and make it habital for us!


Well i made a blog on Terriformn and no one came! I guess spme of u should realy come over
to my blog!
120. HAARP
Link



this storm is just more proof... just like some others...

our weather is engineered...

Dr Masters wont admit it because he will be blackballed...


Is it possible to talk about both global warming and climate change elsewhere?
Why did you change my comment?
126. HAARP
Ill see yall later...


the big black trucks just pulled up...


oh no
Wow if 93L manages to stay of-shore we could have some problems....

Check out the very nice spin on infrared imagery.
Is it possible that the quick-scat missed the strongest winds in 91C because it is so small?
It's worth noting that SSTs in the northeast Pacific are a substantial 2 C above normal

Ummm... Does El Nino mean anything? El Nino = warmer water in the eastern Pacific, especially along the Equator.
Wow! The spin is much more pronounced than I thought.

What is keeping this thing from being a depression again?
The following is a real forecast scenario for next week.Some interests may heed this one ...as the weekend turns to next week.Note the El Nino reference...Link
El Nino is not caused by global warming; there is evidence that El Nino has been occurring for thousands of years.
Note"
...It is believed that a major weather event will occur next
week in some form or fashion...but it remains to be seen where and
exactly on what day or days...


Hmmmmm...
The GFSx sees 2 storms..next week in the SoutheastLink
El Nino, especially strong El Ninos, often result in above normal rainfall here:


October was the first month this year with above normal precipitation. Unfortunately, the effects are often the opposite in the spring (not in 1993 though).
Posted By: Patrap at 4:21 PM CST on November 02, 2006.

The GFSx sees 2 storms..next week in the SoutheastLink


They look pretty big! Also, look at those stoms race into California!
Same map for LA:

Have one for TX?


Strangely, some regions were actually drier than normal (compared to other El Nino years) during the 1982-83 El Nino. You can find maps, including temperature maps for all the states in the CONUS here (at the bottom; the green states have both temperature and precipitation while the red states have temperature only and blue states precipitation only).
Thanks STL. I'll definately keep that handy.
What are some of your thoughts on 91C?
Where'd everybody go?
I found this, from the HPC, which mentions 91C (old discussion):

THE NAM IS THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN MOVG THE MAIN UPR CNTR EWD. WITH THE MAIN CYCLONE AFTER 48 HRS...A COMPROMISE POSN W/A PRESSURE OF 988 HPA AT 72 HRS APPEARS BEST PER COORDINATION W/OPC. THE GFS IS LIKELY DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM TOO MUCH DUE TO ITS DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH A MODERATELY DEEP WARM CORE PER THE BOB HART CYCLONE PHASE SPACE WEBPAGE. A MODERATELY DEEP WARM CORE CYCLONE OVER 17C WATER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A UNIQUE OCCURRENCE. A CYCLONE WITH A MODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE AT THAT LATITUDE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WOULD BE EQUALLY UNIQUE AT ANY MONTH OF THE YEAR. A COMPROMISE POSN W/A PRESSURE OF 988 HPA AT 72 HRS APPEARS BEST PER COORDINATION W/OPC.
Is this still about the same storm?

MODEL TRENDS...

DEEP WARM SECLUSION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED QUICKER/WEAKER W/A SHRTWV MOVG TWDS THE PAC NW
LATE THU AND EARLY FRI OVR ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. IT HAS ALSO
TRENDED ABOUT 10 HPA DEEPER W/THE MAIN SFC CYC DURING THE PAST DAY
OF RUNS...WITH MOST OF THE CHANGE OCCURRING IN RUNS OVR 12 HRS
OLD. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER W/THIS SHRTWV OVR ITS
PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS....AND IS TRENDING WEAKER W/THE MAIN UPR
CNTR. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER/WEAKER W/THE FIRST
SHRTWV MOVG TWDS THE PAC NW...AND IS ROUGHLY SIMILAR W/THE DEPTH
OF THE MAIN DEEP CYCLONE.
MichaelSTL where are you i made it to 600+ comes in under 1hr wow
What's the "Tunnel" idea in a nutshell?
Something about cooling SSTs.
Yes; they are referring to it as a "warm seclusion" (an extratropical cyclone that develops a warm-core system inside it; this is what happened when a hurricane developed in the Perfect Storm). It also happened last winter during the big blizzard in February (Dr. Masters called it a Blizzicane).
Forced upwelling or something like that?
Check out some of the pictures I collected from 91C yesterday.






Looks kind of tropical, doesn't it?
I thought so.
That is one weird storm to be where it is and how it appears.
What direction is Thingamabobbercane heading?
Here is a comparison that I posted earlier of 91C and Vince (the earlier image that I posted, which is on the first page, was removed due to excessive bandwidth usage):

Check for yourself!

Link

Looks like Washington to me.
Strange but true: The highest intensity given on NRL for Vince was only 35 kts and 1000 mb (notice that it is listed as an invest in the picture above)!
163. N3EG
My guestimationcasting: It's going to brush the NW corner of WA. state and head into Vancouver Island, following that low that just went by.
This...this...Thingamabobbercane looks like a hybrid of Vince/Epsilon to me.
Yes, the unnamed storm was in 1975.
Little slow to respond there, Skye...

: )
If I yell, I wonder if it will echo...

HELLO!!!

[word echos several times]

: )
Hello! (Fades) hello hello hello hello
DR. M., Thingamabobbercane! LOL You make learning fun!
Where did everyone go?
I don't know?
What does everyone think of my Thingamabobbercane pictures I posted earlier?
Me like!
NOAA RELEASES EXPANDED WORLD OCEAN DATABASE


NOAA RESEARCH OF HURRICANE ISABEL REVEALS INTENSITY CLUES
With this greater insight, researchers are able to better understand how the lower portion of a hurricane's eye and small circulations within the eyewall combine to influence intensity and sometimes lead to extreme wind speeds.

A small, tube-shaped instrument package called a dropwindsonde released into this feature measured the strongest known horizontal wind in a tropical cyclone240 mph (107 m/s or 208 kt.)
91c

91C is getting disorganized
That's an Insane windspeed! I linked the same article yesterday, but I don't think anybody took the time to read it...
I read it.


If you were under 50 kts of wind shear, you'd be disorganized too!

Gotta Go! See Y'all Later!
240 mph (107 m/s or 208 kt).

Wow!

That is certainly not the highest wind ever, even if it is the highest ever recorded; Isabel was "only" a 165 mph storm (compared to 195 mph for a few WPAC typhoons).
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 1:11 AM CDT on April 24, 2006.

In this microwave loop, you can see the eyewall contract and become better defined; the feeder band connected to it weakens as well:

hi ryang
:)
Good night all!
Got to post enough to hit a new page
Those loops are bogging the blog
Those mimic loops are so slow
Its The Day After Tomorrow! They will all combine to form the super mega storm that will freeze the northern hemisphere.

You heard it here first!
new page
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EST THU NOV 2 2006

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY...

WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY SHORTLY FOR THE ENTIRE EC FL
COAST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THRU SUNDAY. THE SURGE OF N/NE
WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OF 20-25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. FULLY EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH TO
BE RATHER COMMON DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTN AND EVE WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE...39 MPH...POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
(BARRIER ISLANDS). WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY REACHING 10 TO 12 FEET NORTH
OF COCOA BEACH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRI INTO FRI EVE...THIS
EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BEACH EROSION OCCURRING
AT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES WHICH MAY ADD UP TO MODERATE OR EVEN
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. ON TOP OF THAT...HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ASSOCD WITH THE
FULL MOON SUNDAY MORNING.
OK! :)
surface map for Thingamabobber
Hey Randrewl, I got the ECFL hazardous outlook up in my blog.
hey guys! I get a day off of work Monday and of course,tuesday, which is election day.
OK...thanks Skye
Hi lol
Hello there, who's here? Me for one . Cyclone, not many people are interested in your idea that global warming, caused by us, the termite people, is an issue. This is why there has been no meaningful action taken to stop the self destruction. Its not going to change any time soon. The status quo is still fine. The future looks grim, but hey, whats the problem???????
221. Inyo
overfishing and water pollution are going to trash our fisheries regardless of what global warming does.

Interesting about the similar storm in the 1970s.

Then there is also the Colombus Day Storm which was extratropical/contained hurricane remnants.
pottery the NHC forecasters have a phrase they use, "...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...".
INYO< you mean we shoudnt worry,because we're doomed?????
Lowercal, Do they realy say that? Incredible. Wonderful. People are paid big money to come up with things like that. We're dooooooomed.....
clclone, the pop. of this little island has DOUBLED in 50 yrs. No problem........
lol. They apply it to situations where there are two or more different plausible scenarios. They forecast the one with that requires the most preparation, e.g. evacuation. If they are wrong about that, well, it was the course of least regret.

I think it applies to the idea of man's impact on the current global warming cycle.
In the meantime, we are building not one, or two, but THREE aluminium smelters here. This in spite of huge public opposition to the idea. But the government knows best you see.......
... unless of course one cares nothing for future generations (including one's own).
too true lowercal.
well its not true to say that people are not concerned. I know lots of folks that put their garbage in 3 different colloured bags........
I think most in the US are truly concerned too. We'll see how that's reflected in the landscape a week from now.
cyclone, you missed my sarcasm about the garbage bags. Its not very helpful, taken in context.


lowercal, I just checked in to the BBC news. A new study says that ALL life in the sea could be extinct in 50 years. Read it......
Hello. Returned, I have!
I don't know what to say about that.......except OMG
What we have not been able to do, is to make it obvious that global warming is a weather issue. And that historical weather cycles have no relevance, because this problem is not to do with historical time, it has to do with NOW.
I was out briefly. I had to wheel the colored bins to the curb from out of the garage before my wife gets home ... in her car. ;)

Now is the time for effective action. I'll pull up that BBC item now.
hi hurricaneblast. What are you OMGing about? Did you check the BBC?
How is little Invest 91C doing?
1900, glad youre back.
whoops I have to be out for a while. Try to be back later. If not keep up the fight.
It looks like the Thingamabobbercane is struggling to mantain its identity...

AVN IR Loop
On the loop I just posted, turn on the NECP Fronts. Those highs have pressures of sub-1000 mb!

: )
Who turned on the bold?
The BBC article 'Only 50 years left' for sea fish is sobering. We will learn great lessons in the next 50 years but will we survive to make use of them?
Look at this loop. It looks like 91C (if you can call it that anymore) is going to make landfall on the Olympic pennensulae.
What a dreary forcast!

Link
Thanks 1900. :) (for the loops)
No problem!
What does this look like to you?

A thingamabobbercane.
We have an inposter!

I'd have to say that that looks like Europe.
That looks pretty much purely tropical, well-formed eye, pretty much symetrical, inner core, feeder band looking things. Id say it was about to undergo rapid intensification.
Cyclonebuster you have mail
I have to go and I may not be back this evening so I'll put this out now.

The wave that was responsible for 93L may find new life in the East Pacific as 94E in a few days. The latest GFS and GFDL seem to support that.
Dr. Masters:

What kind of weather did the Huron "Hurricane" Bring? Severe T-storms, Lake Effect?

This is interesting :)
EUmetsat RepoLinkrt..French..pdf
Also the Mediterranean Hurricane formed in January.

Link
Hurricane Huron report.

LInk
1900 Hurricane Thank you very much for that informative article! NICE!!

This definately leads crendance to this being a warm cored type system!
No problem.
Check this out!

Link
Never mind. That is the same link that Dr. Jeff posted in his blog, along with a visible one.
Hello?

[word echos]
Well, see y'all later. If you still want to get a hold of me, either mail me or post on my blog. The second is more preferable.
Katrina PowerLink
275. Inyo
people, 'all sea life' is NOT going to die in 50 years. The world's fisheries will collapse, which will be a horrible disaster, but there will be plenty of sea life, just nothing we can eat.
Oh well thats real reassuring Inyo. I'll sleep much better tonight knowing we didn't kill all the sea life, just the stuff that we can eat.
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
[looks up palletable]
Got a cloudsat on 93L today too.
update on EH2R, the dude that compares sunsets to make some pretty amazing predictions.

Unprecedented expansions measured

Unreal as it seemed, fall 2005 expansions were throunced today, it would have been impossible to distinguish a Montreal summer shot with today's captures. Surreal warming throughout the Arctic having surface temperatures 10 to 15 degrees C above average, not for a day but for more than a week has amazed all who live here. Clouds dominated of course, no observations were done until today, half a dozen observations have showed huge expansions, easily beating ever so impressive 2005. The running average temperature of the last ten late october days in Resolute has about equalled the average temperature for last September. This heat event was captured more than 2 weeks ago. It was at first a huge Low cyclone coming from the Pacific, but this Low did not last as long as the heat. Our Arctic's quite unusual warming can't be explained by any other way, the atmosphere as a whole is warmer, mainly from: more open ice free sea water , advection from the Pacific and Atlantic, a huge cloud coverage, and finally from a warmer atmosphere to start with. The Upper Air is thus, despite the ever descending sun, a source of heat radiation synergized with the sea. This makes it very nearly certain that the coming winter will be like autumn for most North American locations, Russia/Eastern Europe is the big question, but ENSO dynamics reconfigure meso scale circulations. There you have it; winter seasonal projection is nearly done, I am still mulling over at possible scenarios for Russia. Look for a complete projection at the onset of the long night on November 6.

WD October 25 2006
There's a ship within 101nm of 93L.
LOL, Dr. M! Thingamabobbercane?! Love the name!
286. Rodek
Hello all! My first post from Ft Walton Beach, FL. I enjoy reading everyone's posts and learning everything I can about weather.
yo p-trap
you out there...
hello..anyone..anyone.......lol
290. Rodek
Can we expect the 2007 season to be as quiet as the 2006 season in the Gulf or was '06 a fluke?
Can we expect the 2007 season to be as quiet as the 2006 season in the Gulf or was '06 a fluke?

actualy the El Nino will peak soon and will go down sooo 07 in the gulf will be sorta like 03
(I predict the whole season like 03 or 04)
Welcome Rodek! I think it's a little early to say what we could expect for next year.

But I'm beginning to expect when people get up in the morning they'll be suprised with how well 93L will be looking.

At night when the upper layers cool it helps condensate the rising heat from the ocean. 93L is in it's building time for the day & has got a good start.
Am i the only one who notcies that 93L is almost a TD
omg 93L is spinning and is closed with impressive thunderstorms i say we have TD-10
hmm looks like 93L is now movin NE
It will be interesting to see the next pass on the storm position & intensity page, should be around 5:45am gmt.

Cimaron just had a pass & is fading fast.
hmm T.1 now on 93L
Posted By: Skyepony at 7:31 PM PST on November 02, 2006.
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
02/1745 UTC 17.1N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic Ocean


Twins again?
Same storm, different passes. That was the 1st time in more than a day that it wasn't too weak to get a T#.
Never mind. :[ Just moving south. Not "DRIFTING WEST"?
Thanks Skye. Hope the wind isn't rattling your house to hard.

Have you looked at any models re. the East Pac this evening?
Wind hasn't arrived yet, got the garden ready today. Thing grew good with the rain.

I did go back & look at the 18Z gfs, see it has come into line with most the others.
Most the 00Z runs are out, still looks on.

Somehow I had missed the 18Z gfdl run on 93L earlier.

off to zzzzz
Garden grew, garden ready, sounds good.

And the LBAR still likes you. :)

I may not be back 'til much later. If I don't see you good night Skye.
NASA's Earth Observatory has a report on 91C. They agree that it is outside the norman hurricane areas and therefore unable to name. They do go on to try and explain how this "subtropical" storm forms.
Hurricane23 if your on here they do list a way to download this storm to your google earth site.
Thingamabobercane has looked quite impressive for a couple days now on Portland TV satellite images during wether segments on the news...it's kicking in some mild temps. and plenty of precip underneath as the "pineapple express" streams in from the SW. Nice warm temps after a string of sunny cold days although the winds have kicked up a lot of leaves (after I just raked them up) and the rains have become moderate.
Cold front is here ECent. Fl. Looks like a beautiful day ahead. Going to be interesting how this cold front and the system to the south interact.
good morning all

93L has moved to the SSW overnight and is now practically ashore in S Belize. Any furhter drift to the W will take it inland
Link
Trouble comes to the Gulf Coast,late next week.Will have to keep close eyes on this situ late next week..Link
Lake effect snow plumes..N Michigan...Link
agreed k-man...... 93L looks on the coast now......

hope everybody has a good weekend! :)
hopefully the latest cold front will help kill these things off here...Link
03/1145 UTC 16.7N 88.0W T1.5/1.5 93L
03/0545 UTC 16.7N 87.6W T1.5/1.5 93L
02/2345 UTC 16.8N 87.6W T1.0/1.5 93L